WorldWideScience

Sample records for biometric time series

  1. eBiometrics: an enhanced multi-biometrics authentication technique for real-time remote applications on mobile devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuseler, Torben; Lami, Ihsan; Jassim, Sabah; Sellahewa, Harin

    2010-04-01

    The use of mobile communication devices with advance sensors is growing rapidly. These sensors are enabling functions such as Image capture, Location applications, and Biometric authentication such as Fingerprint verification and Face & Handwritten signature recognition. Such ubiquitous devices are essential tools in today's global economic activities enabling anywhere-anytime financial and business transactions. Cryptographic functions and biometric-based authentication can enhance the security and confidentiality of mobile transactions. Using Biometric template security techniques in real-time biometric-based authentication are key factors for successful identity verification solutions, but are venerable to determined attacks by both fraudulent software and hardware. The EU-funded SecurePhone project has designed and implemented a multimodal biometric user authentication system on a prototype mobile communication device. However, various implementations of this project have resulted in long verification times or reduced accuracy and/or security. This paper proposes to use built-in-self-test techniques to ensure no tampering has taken place on the verification process prior to performing the actual biometric authentication. These techniques utilises the user personal identification number as a seed to generate a unique signature. This signature is then used to test the integrity of the verification process. Also, this study proposes the use of a combination of biometric modalities to provide application specific authentication in a secure environment, thus achieving optimum security level with effective processing time. I.e. to ensure that the necessary authentication steps and algorithms running on the mobile device application processor can not be undermined or modified by an imposter to get unauthorized access to the secure system.

  2. Accuracy, security, and processing time comparisons of biometric fingerprint recognition system using digital and optical enhancements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsharif, Salim; El-Saba, Aed; Jagapathi, Rajendarreddy

    2011-06-01

    Fingerprint recognition is one of the most commonly used forms of biometrics and has been widely used in daily life due to its feasibility, distinctiveness, permanence, accuracy, reliability, and acceptability. Besides cost, issues related to accuracy, security, and processing time in practical biometric recognition systems represent the most critical factors that makes these systems widely acceptable. Accurate and secure biometric systems often require sophisticated enhancement and encoding techniques that burdens the overall processing time of the system. In this paper we present a comparison between common digital and optical enhancementencoding techniques with respect to their accuracy, security and processing time, when applied to biometric fingerprint systems.

  3. Privacy preserving, real-time and location secured biometrics for mCommerce authentication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuseler, Torben; Al-Assam, Hisham; Jassim, Sabah; Lami, Ihsan A.

    2011-06-01

    Secure wireless connectivity between mobile devices and financial/commercial establishments is mature, and so is the security of remote authentication for mCommerce. However, the current techniques are open for hacking, false misrepresentation, replay and other attacks. This is because of the lack of real-time and current-precise-location in the authentication process. This paper proposes a new technique that includes freshly-generated real-time personal biometric data of the client and present-position of the mobile device used by the client to perform the mCommerce so to form a real-time biometric representation to authenticate any remote transaction. A fresh GPS fix generates the "time and location" to stamp the biometric data freshly captured to produce a single, real-time biometric representation on the mobile device. A trusted Certification Authority (CA) acts as an independent authenticator of such client's claimed realtime location and his/her provided fresh biometric data. Thus eliminates the necessity of user enrolment with many mCommerce services and application providers. This CA can also "independently from the client" and "at that instant of time" collect the client's mobile device "time and location" from the cellular network operator so to compare with the received information, together with the client's stored biometric information. Finally, to preserve the client's location privacy and to eliminate the possibility of cross-application client tracking, this paper proposes shielding the real location of the mobile device used prior to submission to the CA or authenticators.

  4. Real Time Smart Car Security System by Using Biometrics

    OpenAIRE

    Prof. S. P. Pingat; Shubham Rakhecha; Rishabh Agrawal; Sarika Mhetre; Pranay Raushan

    2013-01-01

    In this proposed paper, two tier security for car is achieved using Biometrics such as FDS (Face Detection System) and Finger Print Detection System. FDS is used to detect the face of the person driving the car and compare it with the training set. For example, during night when the owner of car is sleeping and someone tries to rob the car then initially the finger print of that person will be detected and matched with predefined image through handle of the car where the Finger print scanner ...

  5. Time Series Momentum

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moskowitz, Tobias J.; Ooi, Yao Hua; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2012-01-01

    We document significant “time series momentum” in equity index, currency, commodity, and bond futures for each of the 58 liquid instruments we consider. We find persistence in returns for one to 12 months that partially reverses over longer horizons, consistent with sentiment theories of initial...... under-reaction and delayed over-reaction. A diversified portfolio of time series momentum strategies across all asset classes delivers substantial abnormal returns with little exposure to standard asset pricing factors and performs best during extreme markets. Examining the trading activities...... of speculators and hedgers, we find that speculators profit from time series momentum at the expense of hedgers....

  6. Time Series Explorer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loredo, Thomas

    The key, central objectives of the proposed Time Series Explorer project are to develop an organized collection of software tools for analysis of time series data in current and future NASA astrophysics data archives, and to make the tools available in two ways: as a library (the Time Series Toolbox) that individual science users can use to write their own data analysis pipelines, and as an application (the Time Series Automaton) providing an accessible, data-ready interface to many Toolbox algorithms, facilitating rapid exploration and automatic processing of time series databases. A number of time series analysis methods will be implemented, including techniques that range from standard ones to state-of-the-art developments by the proposers and others. Most of the algorithms will be able to handle time series data subject to real-world problems such as data gaps, sampling that is otherwise irregular, asynchronous sampling (in multi-wavelength settings), and data with non-Gaussian measurement errors. The proposed research responds to the ADAP element supporting the development of tools for mining the vast reservoir of information residing in NASA databases. The tools that will be provided to the community of astronomers studying variability of astronomical objects (from nearby stars and extrasolar planets, through galactic and extragalactic sources) will revolutionize the quality of timing analyses that can be carried out, and greatly enhance the scientific throughput of all NASA astrophysics missions past, present, and future. The Automaton will let scientists explore time series - individual records or large data bases -- with the most informative and useful analysis methods available, without having to develop the tools themselves or understand the computational details. Both elements, the Toolbox and the Automaton, will enable deep but efficient exploratory time series data analysis, which is why we have named the project the Time Series Explorer. Science

  7. Multivariate Time Series Search

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Multivariate Time-Series (MTS) are ubiquitous, and are generated in areas as disparate as sensor recordings in aerospace systems, music and video streams, medical...

  8. Long time series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisdal, H.; Holmqvist, E.; Hyvärinen, V.; Jónsson, P.; Kuusisto, E.; Larsen, S. E.; Lindström, G.; Ovesen, N. B.; Roald, L. A.

    Awareness that emission of greenhouse gases will raise the global temperature and change the climate has led to studies trying to identify such changes in long-term climate and hydrologic time series. This report, written by the......Awareness that emission of greenhouse gases will raise the global temperature and change the climate has led to studies trying to identify such changes in long-term climate and hydrologic time series. This report, written by the...

  9. Visual time series analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Hilbert, Astrid

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a platform which supplies an easy-to-handle, interactive, extendable, and fast analysis tool for time series analysis. In contrast to other software suits like Maple, Matlab, or R, which use a command-line-like interface and where the user has to memorize/look-up the appropriate...... commands, our application is select-and-click-driven. It allows to derive many different sequences of deviations for a given time series and to visualize them in different ways in order to judge their expressive power and to reuse the procedure found. For many transformations or model-ts, the user may...... choose between manual and automated parameter selection. The user can dene new transformations and add them to the system. The application contains efficient implementations of advanced and recent techniques for time series analysis including techniques related to extreme value analysis and filtering...

  10. Time series analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Madsen, Henrik

    2007-01-01

    ""In this book the author gives a detailed account of estimation, identification methodologies for univariate and multivariate stationary time-series models. The interesting aspect of this introductory book is that it contains several real data sets and the author made an effort to explain and motivate the methodology with real data. … this introductory book will be interesting and useful not only to undergraduate students in the UK universities but also to statisticians who are keen to learn time-series techniques and keen to apply them. I have no hesitation in recommending the book.""-Journa

  11. Applied time series analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Woodward, Wayne A; Elliott, Alan C

    2011-01-01

    ""There is scarcely a standard technique that the reader will find left out … this book is highly recommended for those requiring a ready introduction to applicable methods in time series and serves as a useful resource for pedagogical purposes.""-International Statistical Review (2014), 82""Current time series theory for practice is well summarized in this book.""-Emmanuel Parzen, Texas A&M University""What an extraordinary range of topics covered, all very insightfully. I like [the authors'] innovations very much, such as the AR factor table.""-David Findley, U.S. Census Bureau (retired)""…

  12. Cancelable Biometrics - A Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Indira Chakravarthy; VVSSS. Balaram; B. Eswara Reddy

    2011-01-01

    In recent times Biometrics has emerged as a reliable, convenient and effective method of user authentication. However, with the increasing use of biometrics in several diverse applications, concerns about the privacy and security of biometric data contained in the database systems has increased. It is therefore imperative that Biometric systems instill confidence in the general public, by demonstrating that, these systems are robust, have low error rates and are tamper proof. In this context,...

  13. Causality between time series

    CERN Document Server

    Liang, X San

    2014-01-01

    Given two time series, can one tell, in a rigorous and quantitative way, the cause and effect between them? Based on a recently rigorized physical notion namely information flow, we arrive at a concise formula and give this challenging question, which is of wide concern in different disciplines, a positive answer. Here causality is measured by the time rate of change of information flowing from one series, say, X2, to another, X1. The measure is asymmetric between the two parties and, particularly, if the process underlying X1 does not depend on X2, then the resulting causality from X2 to X1 vanishes. The formula is tight in form, involving only the commonly used statistics, sample covariances. It has been validated with touchstone series purportedly generated with one-way causality. It has also been applied to the investigation of real world problems; an example presented here is the cause-effect relation between two climate modes, El Ni\\~no and Indian Ocean Dipole, which have been linked to the hazards in f...

  14. Disk space and load time requirements for eye movement biometric databases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasprowski, Pawel; Harezlak, Katarzyna

    2016-06-01

    Biometric identification is a very popular area of interest nowadays. Problems with the so-called physiological methods like fingerprints or iris recognition resulted in increased attention paid to methods measuring behavioral patterns. Eye movement based biometric (EMB) identification is one of the interesting behavioral methods and due to the intensive development of eye tracking devices it has become possible to define new methods for the eye movement signal processing. Such method should be supported by an efficient storage used to collect eye movement data and provide it for further analysis. The aim of the research was to check various setups enabling such a storage choice. There were various aspects taken into consideration, like disk space usage, time required for loading and saving whole data set or its chosen parts.

  15. Modelling bursty time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many human-related activities show power-law decaying interevent time distribution with exponents usually varying between 1 and 2. We study a simple task-queuing model, which produces bursty time series due to the non-trivial dynamics of the task list. The model is characterized by a priority distribution as an input parameter, which describes the choice procedure from the list. We give exact results on the asymptotic behaviour of the model and we show that the interevent time distribution is power-law decaying for any kind of input distributions that remain normalizable in the infinite list limit, with exponents tunable between 1 and 2. The model satisfies a scaling law between the exponents of interevent time distribution (β) and autocorrelation function (α): α + β = 2. This law is general for renewal processes with power-law decaying interevent time distribution. We conclude that slowly decaying autocorrelation function indicates long-range dependence only if the scaling law is violated. (paper)

  16. FLIR biometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Kane, Barbara L.; Krzywicki, Alan T.

    2009-04-01

    Biometrics are generally thought of as anatomical features that allow positive identification of a person. This paper describes biometrics that are also physiological in nature. The differences between anatomy and physiology have to do with the fact that physiology is dynamic, functioning, and changing with the state or actions of a person whereas anatomy is generally more stable. Biometrics in general usually refers to a trait, whereas the new type of biometrics discussed in this paper refer to a state, which is temporary, and often even transitory. By state, what is meant is the condition of a person at a particular time relative to their psychological, physical, medical, or physiological status. The present paper describes metrics that are cues to the state of a functioning individual observable through a thermal camera video system. An inferred state might then be tied to the positive identification of the person. Using thermal for this purpose is significant because the thermal signature of a human is dynamic and changes with physical and emotional state, while also revealing underlying anatomical structures. A new method involving the counting of open pores on the skin is discussed as a way of observing the Electrodermal Activity (EDA) of the skin, a primary component of the polygraph.

  17. GPS Position Time Series @ JPL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Susan; Moore, Angelyn; Kedar, Sharon; Liu, Zhen; Webb, Frank; Heflin, Mike; Desai, Shailen

    2013-01-01

    Different flavors of GPS time series analysis at JPL - Use same GPS Precise Point Positioning Analysis raw time series - Variations in time series analysis/post-processing driven by different users. center dot JPL Global Time Series/Velocities - researchers studying reference frame, combining with VLBI/SLR/DORIS center dot JPL/SOPAC Combined Time Series/Velocities - crustal deformation for tectonic, volcanic, ground water studies center dot ARIA Time Series/Coseismic Data Products - Hazard monitoring and response focused center dot ARIA data system designed to integrate GPS and InSAR - GPS tropospheric delay used for correcting InSAR - Caltech's GIANT time series analysis uses GPS to correct orbital errors in InSAR - Zhen Liu's talking tomorrow on InSAR Time Series analysis

  18. Bootstrapping High Dimensional Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Xianyang; Cheng, Guang

    2014-01-01

    This article studies bootstrap inference for high dimensional weakly dependent time series in a general framework of approximately linear statistics. The following high dimensional applications are covered: (1) uniform confidence band for mean vector; (2) specification testing on the second order property of time series such as white noise testing and bandedness testing of covariance matrix; (3) specification testing on the spectral property of time series. In theory, we first derive a Gaussi...

  19. Autoencoding Time Series for Visualisation

    OpenAIRE

    Gianniotis, Nikolaos; Kügler, Dennis; Tino, Peter; Polsterer, Kai; Misra, Ranjeev

    2015-01-01

    We present an algorithm for the visualisation of time series. To that end we employ echo state networks to convert time series into a suitable vector representation which is capable of capturing the latent dynamics of the time series. Subsequently, the obtained vector representations are put through an autoencoder and the visualisation is constructed using the activations of the bottleneck. The crux of the work lies with defining an objective function that quantifies the reconstruction error ...

  20. FROG: Time-series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Alasdair

    2014-06-01

    FROG performs time series analysis and display. It provides a simple user interface for astronomers wanting to do time-domain astrophysics but still offers the powerful features found in packages such as PERIOD (ascl:1406.005). FROG includes a number of tools for manipulation of time series. Among other things, the user can combine individual time series, detrend series (multiple methods) and perform basic arithmetic functions. The data can also be exported directly into the TOPCAT (ascl:1101.010) application for further manipulation if needed.

  1. Advances in time series forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Cagdas, Hakan Aladag

    2012-01-01

    Readers will learn how these methods work and how these approaches can be used to forecast real life time series. The hybrid forecasting model is also explained. Data presented in this e-book is problem based and is taken from real life situations. It is a valuable resource for students, statisticians and working professionals interested in advanced time series analysis.

  2. Models for dependent time series

    CERN Document Server

    Tunnicliffe Wilson, Granville; Haywood, John

    2015-01-01

    Models for Dependent Time Series addresses the issues that arise and the methodology that can be applied when the dependence between time series is described and modeled. Whether you work in the economic, physical, or life sciences, the book shows you how to draw meaningful, applicable, and statistically valid conclusions from multivariate (or vector) time series data.The first four chapters discuss the two main pillars of the subject that have been developed over the last 60 years: vector autoregressive modeling and multivariate spectral analysis. These chapters provide the foundational mater

  3. Autoencoding Time Series for Visualisation

    CERN Document Server

    Gianniotis, Nikolaos; Tino, Peter; Polsterer, Kai; Misra, Ranjeev

    2015-01-01

    We present an algorithm for the visualisation of time series. To that end we employ echo state networks to convert time series into a suitable vector representation which is capable of capturing the latent dynamics of the time series. Subsequently, the obtained vector representations are put through an autoencoder and the visualisation is constructed using the activations of the bottleneck. The crux of the work lies with defining an objective function that quantifies the reconstruction error of these representations in a principled manner. We demonstrate the method on synthetic and real data.

  4. Time Series with Tailored Nonlinearities

    CERN Document Server

    Raeth, C

    2015-01-01

    It is demonstrated how to generate time series with tailored nonlinearities by inducing well- defined constraints on the Fourier phases. Correlations between the phase information of adjacent phases and (static and dynamic) measures of nonlinearities are established and their origin is explained. By applying a set of simple constraints on the phases of an originally linear and uncor- related Gaussian time series, the observed scaling behavior of the intensity distribution of empirical time series can be reproduced. The power law character of the intensity distributions being typical for e.g. turbulence and financial data can thus be explained in terms of phase correlations.

  5. Beyond Biometrics

    OpenAIRE

    Broek, van den, R.C.F.M.

    2010-01-01

    Throughout the last 40 years, the essence of automated identification of users has remained the same. In this article, a new class of biometrics is proposed that is founded on processing biosignals, as opposed to images. After a brief introduction on biometrics, biosignals are discussed, including their advantages, disadvantages, and guidelines for obtaining them. This new class of biometrics increases biometrics’ robustness and enables cross validation. Next, biosignals’ use is illustrated b...

  6. Multivariate Time Series Similarity Searching

    OpenAIRE

    Jimin Wang; Yuelong Zhu; Shijin Li; Dingsheng Wan; Pengcheng Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Multivariate time series (MTS) datasets are very common in various financial, multimedia, and hydrological fields. In this paper, a dimension-combination method is proposed to search similar sequences for MTS. Firstly, the similarity of single-dimension series is calculated; then the overall similarity of the MTS is obtained by synthesizing each of the single-dimension similarity based on weighted BORDA voting method. The dimension-combination method could use the existing similarity searchin...

  7. Random time series in astronomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Simon

    2013-02-13

    Progress in astronomy comes from interpreting the signals encoded in the light received from distant objects: the distribution of light over the sky (images), over photon wavelength (spectrum), over polarization angle and over time (usually called light curves by astronomers). In the time domain, we see transient events such as supernovae, gamma-ray bursts and other powerful explosions; we see periodic phenomena such as the orbits of planets around nearby stars, radio pulsars and pulsations of stars in nearby galaxies; and we see persistent aperiodic variations ('noise') from powerful systems such as accreting black holes. I review just a few of the recent and future challenges in the burgeoning area of time domain astrophysics, with particular attention to persistently variable sources, the recovery of reliable noise power spectra from sparsely sampled time series, higher order properties of accreting black holes, and time delays and correlations in multi-variate time series. PMID:23277606

  8. EEG biometric identification: a thorough exploration of the time-frequency domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    DelPozo-Banos, Marcos; Travieso, Carlos M.; Weidemann, Christoph T.; Alonso, Jesús B.

    2015-10-01

    Objective. Although interest in using electroencephalogram (EEG) activity for subject identification has grown in recent years, the state of the art still lacks a comprehensive exploration of the discriminant information within it. This work aims to fill this gap, and in particular, it focuses on the time-frequency representation of the EEG. Approach. We executed qualitative and quantitative analyses of six publicly available data sets following a sequential experimentation approach. This approach was divided in three blocks analysing the configuration of the power spectrum density, the representation of the data and the properties of the discriminant information. A total of ten experiments were applied. Main results. Results show that EEG information below 40 Hz is unique enough to discriminate across subjects (a maximum of 100 subjects were evaluated here), regardless of the recorded cognitive task or the sensor location. Moreover, the discriminative power of rhythms follows a W-like shape between 1 and 40 Hz, with the central peak located at the posterior rhythm (around 10 Hz). This information is maximized with segments of around 2 s, and it proved to be moderately constant across montages and time. Significance. Therefore, we characterize how EEG activity differs across individuals and detail the optimal conditions to detect subject-specific information. This work helps to clarify the results of previous studies and to solve some unanswered questions. Ultimately, it will serve as guide for the design of future biometric systems.

  9. Stochastic Time-Series Spectroscopy

    CERN Document Server

    Scoville, John

    2015-01-01

    Spectroscopically measuring low levels of non-equilibrium phenomena (e.g. emission in the presence of a large thermal background) can be problematic due to an unfavorable signal-to-noise ratio. An approach is presented to use time-series spectroscopy to separate non-equilibrium quantities from slowly varying equilibria. A stochastic process associated with the non-equilibrium part of the spectrum is characterized in terms of its central moments or cumulants, which may vary over time. This parameterization encodes information about the non-equilibrium behavior of the system. Stochastic time-series spectroscopy (STSS) can be implemented at very little expense in many settings since a series of scans are typically recorded in order to generate a low-noise averaged spectrum. Higher moments or cumulants may be readily calculated from this series, enabling the observation of quantities that would be difficult or impossible to determine from an average spectrum or from prinicipal components analysis (PCA). This meth...

  10. Anonymous Biometric Access Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuiming Ye

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Access control systems using the latest biometric technologies can offer a higher level of security than conventional password-based systems. Their widespread deployments, however, can severely undermine individuals' rights of privacy. Biometric signals are immutable and can be exploited to associate individuals' identities to sensitive personal records across disparate databases. In this paper, we propose the Anonymous Biometric Access Control (ABAC system to protect user anonymity. The ABAC system uses novel Homomorphic Encryption (HE based protocols to verify membership of a user without knowing his/her true identity. To make HE-based protocols scalable to large biometric databases, we propose the k-Anonymous Quantization (kAQ framework that provides an effective and secure tradeoff of privacy and complexity. kAQ limits server's knowledge of the user to k maximally dissimilar candidates in the database, where k controls the amount of complexity-privacy tradeoff. kAQ is realized by a constant-time table lookup to identity the k candidates followed by a HE-based matching protocol applied only on these candidates. The maximal dissimilarity protects privacy by destroying any similarity patterns among the returned candidates. Experimental results on iris biometrics demonstrate the validity of our framework and illustrate a practical implementation of an anonymous biometric system.

  11. ACCURATE TIME SERIES CLASSIFICATION USING SHAPELETS

    OpenAIRE

    M. Arathi; A. GOVARDHAN

    2014-01-01

    Time series data are sequences of values measured o ver time. One of the most recent approaches to classification of time series data is to find shape lets within a data set. Time series shapelets are time series subsequences which represent a class. In order to compare two time series sequences, existing work use s Euclidean distance measure. The problem with Euclid ean distance is that it requires data to be standardized if scales ...

  12. Keystroke Dynamics Performance Enhancement With Soft Biometrics

    OpenAIRE

    Syed Idrus, Syed Zulkarnain; Cherrier, Estelle; Rosenberger, Christophe; Mondal, Soumik; Bours, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    It is accepted that the way a person types on a key-board contains timing patterns, which can be used to classify him/her, is known as keystroke dynamics. Keystroke dynamics is a behavioural biometric modality, whose perfor-mances, however, are worse than morphological modalities such as fingerprint, iris recognition or face recognition. To cope with this, we propose to combine keystroke dynamics with soft biometrics. Soft biometrics refers to biometric characteristics that are not sufficient...

  13. Nonlinear time series analysis methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Diks, Cees

    1999-01-01

    Methods of nonlinear time series analysis are discussed from a dynamical systems perspective on the one hand, and from a statistical perspective on the other. After giving an informal overview of the theory of dynamical systems relevant to the analysis of deterministic time series, time series generated by nonlinear stochastic systems and spatio-temporal dynamical systems are considered. Several statistical methods for the analysis of nonlinear time series are presented and illustrated with applications to physical and physiological time series.

  14. Trend prediction of chaotic time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Aiguo; Zhao Cai; Li Zhanhuai

    2007-01-01

    To predict the trend of chaotic time series in time series analysis and time series data mining fields, a novel predicting algorithm of chaotic time series trend is presented, and an on-line segmenting algorithm is proposed to convert a time series into a binary string according to ascending or descending trend of each subsequence. The on-line segmenting algorithm is independent of the prior knowledge about time series. The naive Bayesian algorithm is then employed to predict the trend of chaotic time series according to the binary string. The experimental results of three chaotic time series demonstrate that the proposed method predicts the ascending or descending trend of chaotic time series with few error.

  15. A Course in Time Series Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peña, Daniel; Tsay, Ruey S

    2011-01-01

    New statistical methods and future directions of research in time series A Course in Time Series Analysis demonstrates how to build time series models for univariate and multivariate time series data. It brings together material previously available only in the professional literature and presents a unified view of the most advanced procedures available for time series model building. The authors begin with basic concepts in univariate time series, providing an up-to-date presentation of ARIMA models, including the Kalman filter, outlier analysis, automatic methods for building ARIMA models, a

  16. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    2006-01-01

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...

  17. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...

  18. Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example

    CERN Document Server

    Bisgaard, Soren

    2011-01-01

    An intuition-based approach enables you to master time series analysis with ease Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example provides the fundamental techniques in time series analysis using various examples. By introducing necessary theory through examples that showcase the discussed topics, the authors successfully help readers develop an intuitive understanding of seemingly complicated time series models and their implications. The book presents methodologies for time series analysis in a simplified, example-based approach. Using graphics, the authors discuss each presented example in

  19. A review of subsequence time series clustering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolhavarieh, Seyedjamal; Aghabozorgi, Saeed; Teh, Ying Wah

    2014-01-01

    Clustering of subsequence time series remains an open issue in time series clustering. Subsequence time series clustering is used in different fields, such as e-commerce, outlier detection, speech recognition, biological systems, DNA recognition, and text mining. One of the useful fields in the domain of subsequence time series clustering is pattern recognition. To improve this field, a sequence of time series data is used. This paper reviews some definitions and backgrounds related to subsequence time series clustering. The categorization of the literature reviews is divided into three groups: preproof, interproof, and postproof period. Moreover, various state-of-the-art approaches in performing subsequence time series clustering are discussed under each of the following categories. The strengths and weaknesses of the employed methods are evaluated as potential issues for future studies. PMID:25140332

  20. Data mining in time series databases

    CERN Document Server

    Kandel, Abraham; Bunke, Horst

    2004-01-01

    Adding the time dimension to real-world databases produces Time SeriesDatabases (TSDB) and introduces new aspects and difficulties to datamining and knowledge discovery. This book covers the state-of-the-artmethodology for mining time series databases. The novel data miningmethods presented in the book include techniques for efficientsegmentation, indexing, and classification of noisy and dynamic timeseries. A graph-based method for anomaly detection in time series isdescribed and the book also studies the implications of a novel andpotentially useful representation of time series as strings. Theproblem of detecting changes in data mining models that are inducedfrom temporal databases is additionally discussed.

  1. Dependency of magnetocardiographically determined fetal cardiac time intervals on gestational age, gender and postnatal biometrics in healthy pregnancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geue Daniel

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Magnetocardiography enables the precise determination of fetal cardiac time intervals (CTI as early as the second trimester of pregnancy. It has been shown that fetal CTI change in course of gestation. The aim of this work was to investigate the dependency of fetal CTI on gestational age, gender and postnatal biometric data in a substantial sample of subjects during normal pregnancy. Methods A total of 230 fetal magnetocardiograms were obtained in 47 healthy fetuses between the 15th and 42nd week of gestation. In each recording, after subtraction of the maternal cardiac artifact and the identification of fetal beats, fetal PQRST courses were signal averaged. On the basis of therein detected wave onsets and ends, the following CTI were determined: P wave, PR interval, PQ interval, QRS complex, ST segment, T wave, QT and QTc interval. Using regression analysis, the dependency of the CTI were examined with respect to gestational age, gender and postnatal biometric data. Results Atrioventricular conduction and ventricular depolarization times could be determined dependably whereas the T wave was often difficult to detect. Linear and nonlinear regression analysis established strong dependency on age for the P wave and QRS complex (r2 = 0.67, p r2 = 0.66, p r2 = 0.21, p r2 = 0.13, p st week onward (p Conclusion We conclude that 1 from approximately the 18th week to term, fetal CTI which quantify depolarization times can be reliably determined using magnetocardiography, 2 the P wave and QRS complex duration show a high dependency on age which to a large part reflects fetal growth and 3 fetal gender plays a role in QRS complex duration in the third trimester. Fetal development is thus in part reflected in the CTI and may be useful in the identification of intrauterine growth retardation.

  2. International Work-Conference on Time Series

    CERN Document Server

    Pomares, Héctor

    2016-01-01

    This volume presents selected peer-reviewed contributions from The International Work-Conference on Time Series, ITISE 2015, held in Granada, Spain, July 1-3, 2015. It discusses topics in time series analysis and forecasting, advanced methods and online learning in time series, high-dimensional and complex/big data time series as well as forecasting in real problems. The International Work-Conferences on Time Series (ITISE) provide a forum for scientists, engineers, educators and students to discuss the latest ideas and implementations in the foundations, theory, models and applications in the field of time series analysis and forecasting. It focuses on interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary research encompassing the disciplines of computer science, mathematics, statistics and econometrics.

  3. Coupling between time series: a network view

    CERN Document Server

    Mehraban, Saeed; Zamani, Maryam; Jafari, Gholamreza

    2013-01-01

    Recently, the visibility graph has been introduced as a novel view for analyzing time series, which maps it to a complex network. In this paper, we introduce new algorithm of visibility, "cross-visibility", which reveals the conjugation of two coupled time series. The correspondence between the two time series is mapped to a network, "the cross-visibility graph", to demonstrate the correlation between them. We applied the algorithm to several correlated and uncorrelated time series, generated by the linear stationary ARFIMA process. The results demonstrate that the cross-visibility graph associated with correlated time series with power-law auto-correlation is scale-free. If the time series are uncorrelated, the degree distribution of their cross-visibility network deviates from power-law. For more clarifying the process, we applied the algorithm to real-world data from the financial trades of two companies, and observed significant small-scale coupling in their dynamics.

  4. Biometric Authentication. Types of biometric identifiers

    OpenAIRE

    Babich, Aleksandra

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis was to build clear understanding biometrics and biometrics identifiers and also to look closely on the methods of biometrics. In this work such methods as data collecting, content analysis were applied. The information is taken from multiple internet resources, TV reports, magazines and newspapers and books. The study contains information about the history of biometrics and the process of its development, characteristics that people consider to be the adva...

  5. Random time series in Astronomy

    OpenAIRE

    Vaughan, Simon

    2013-01-01

    Progress in astronomy comes from interpreting the signals encoded in the light received from distant objects: the distribution of light over the sky (images), over photon wavelength (spectrum), over polarization angle, and over time (usually called light curves by astronomers). In the time domain we see transient events such as supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and other powerful explosions; we see periodic phenomena such as the orbits of planets around nearby stars, radio pulsars, and pulsations...

  6. An optical authentication system based on encryption technique and multimodal biometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Sheng; Zhang, Tong; Zhou, Xin; Liu, Xuemei; Liu, Mingtang

    2013-12-01

    A major concern nowadays for a biometric credential management system is its potential vulnerability to protect its information sources. To prevent a genuine user's templates from both internal and external threats, a novel and simple method combined optical encryption with multimodal biometric authentication technique is proposed. In this method, the standard biometric templates are generated real-timely by the verification keys owned by legal user so that they are unnecessary to be stored in a database. Compared with the traditional recognition algorithms, storage space and matching time are greatly saved. In addition, the verification keys are difficult to be forged due to the utilization of optical encryption technique. Although the verification keys are lost or stolen, they are useless for others in absence of the legal owner's biometric. A series of numerical simulations are performed to demonstrate the feasibility and performance of this method.

  7. Hurst Exponent Analysis of Financial Time Series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Statistical properties of stock market time series and the implication of their Hurst exponents are discussed. Hurst exponents of DJ1A (Dow Jones Industrial Average) components are tested using re-scaled range analysis. In addition to the original stock return series, the linear prediction errors of the daily returns are also tested. Numerical results show that the Hurst exponent analysis can provide some information about the statistical properties of the financial time series.

  8. The Foundations of Modern Time Series Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Mills, Professor Terence C

    2011-01-01

    This book develops the analysis of Time Series from its formal beginnings in the 1890s through to the publication of Box and Jenkins' watershed publication in 1970, showing how these methods laid the foundations for the modern techniques of Time Series analysis that are in use today.

  9. Lag space estimation in time series modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goutte, Cyril

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to investigate some techniques for finding the relevant lag-space, i.e. input information, for time series modelling. This is an important aspect of time series modelling, as it conditions the design of the model through the regressor vector a.k.a. the input layer...

  10. Secure Biometrics: Concepts, Authentication Architectures and Challenges

    OpenAIRE

    Rane, Shantanu; Wang, Ye; Draper, Stark C.; Ishwar, Prakash

    2013-01-01

    BIOMETRICS are an important and widely used class of methods for identity verification and access control. Biometrics are attractive because they are inherent properties of an individual. They need not be remembered like passwords, and are not easily lost or forged like identifying documents. At the same time, bio- metrics are fundamentally noisy and irreplaceable. There are always slight variations among the measurements of a given biometric, and, unlike passwords or identification numbers, ...

  11. An Overview of Biometrics

    OpenAIRE

    Jammi Ashok,; Vaka Shivashankar,; P.V.G.S.Mudiraj

    2010-01-01

    The term biometrics is derived from the Greek words bio meaning “life” and metrics meaning “ to measure” . Biometrics refers to the identification or verification of a person based on his/her physiological and/or behavioral characteristics. Several verification/identification based biometrics have evolved based on various unique aspects of human body, ease of acquiring the biometric, public acceptance and the degree of security required. This paper presents an overview of various biometrics i...

  12. Network structure of multivariate time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacasa, Lucas; Nicosia, Vincenzo; Latora, Vito

    2015-10-01

    Our understanding of a variety of phenomena in physics, biology and economics crucially depends on the analysis of multivariate time series. While a wide range tools and techniques for time series analysis already exist, the increasing availability of massive data structures calls for new approaches for multidimensional signal processing. We present here a non-parametric method to analyse multivariate time series, based on the mapping of a multidimensional time series into a multilayer network, which allows to extract information on a high dimensional dynamical system through the analysis of the structure of the associated multiplex network. The method is simple to implement, general, scalable, does not require ad hoc phase space partitioning, and is thus suitable for the analysis of large, heterogeneous and non-stationary time series. We show that simple structural descriptors of the associated multiplex networks allow to extract and quantify nontrivial properties of coupled chaotic maps, including the transition between different dynamical phases and the onset of various types of synchronization. As a concrete example we then study financial time series, showing that a multiplex network analysis can efficiently discriminate crises from periods of financial stability, where standard methods based on time-series symbolization often fail.

  13. Homogenising time series: beliefs, dogmas and facts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domonkos, P.

    2011-06-01

    In the recent decades various homogenisation methods have been developed, but the real effects of their application on time series are still not known sufficiently. The ongoing COST action HOME (COST ES0601) is devoted to reveal the real impacts of homogenisation methods more detailed and with higher confidence than earlier. As a part of the COST activity, a benchmark dataset was built whose characteristics approach well the characteristics of real networks of observed time series. This dataset offers much better opportunity than ever before to test the wide variety of homogenisation methods, and analyse the real effects of selected theoretical recommendations. Empirical results show that real observed time series usually include several inhomogeneities of different sizes. Small inhomogeneities often have similar statistical characteristics than natural changes caused by climatic variability, thus the pure application of the classic theory that change-points of observed time series can be found and corrected one-by-one is impossible. However, after homogenisation the linear trends, seasonal changes and long-term fluctuations of time series are usually much closer to the reality than in raw time series. Some problems around detecting multiple structures of inhomogeneities, as well as that of time series comparisons within homogenisation procedures are discussed briefly in the study.

  14. Testing Mean Stability of Heteroskedastic Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Violetta Dalla; Liudas Giraitis; Phillips, Peter C. B.

    2015-01-01

    Time series models are often fitted to the data without preliminary checks for stability of the mean and variance, conditions that may not hold in much economic and financial data, particularly over long periods. Ignoring such shifts may result in fitting models with spurious dynamics that lead to unsupported and controversial conclusions about time dependence, causality, and the effects of unanticipated shocks. In spite of what may seem as obvious differences between a time series of indepen...

  15. Testing mean stability of heteroskedastic time series

    OpenAIRE

    Dalla, Violetta; Giraitis, Liudas; Phillips, Peter C. B.

    2015-01-01

    Time series models are often fitted to the data without preliminary checks for stability of the mean and variance, conditions that may not hold in much economic and financial data, particularly over long periods. Ignoring such shifts may result in fitting models with spurious dynamics that lead to unsupported and controversial conclusions about time dependence, causality, and the effects of unanticipated shocks. In spite of what may seem as obvious differences between a time series of indepen...

  16. Time Series Analysis Using Composite Multiscale Entropy

    OpenAIRE

    Kung-Yen Lee; Chun-Chieh Wang; Shiou-Gwo Lin; Chiu-Wen Wu; Shuen-De Wu

    2013-01-01

    Multiscale entropy (MSE) was recently developed to evaluate the complexity of time series over different time scales. Although the MSE algorithm has been successfully applied in a number of different fields, it encounters a problem in that the statistical reliability of the sample entropy (SampEn) of a coarse-grained series is reduced as a time scale factor is increased. Therefore, in this paper, the concept of a composite multiscale entropy (CMSE) is introduced to overcome this difficulty. S...

  17. Review of modern biometric user authentication and their development prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boriev, Z. V.; Sokolov, S. S.; Nyrkov, A. P.

    2015-09-01

    This article discusses the possibility of using biometric information technologies in management. Made a brief overview of access control and time attendance. Analyzed biometrics and identification system user. Recommendations on the use of various systems depending on the specific tasks.

  18. Time series modeling, computation, and inference

    CERN Document Server

    Prado, Raquel

    2010-01-01

    The authors systematically develop a state-of-the-art analysis and modeling of time series. … this book is well organized and well written. The authors present various statistical models for engineers to solve problems in time series analysis. Readers no doubt will learn state-of-the-art techniques from this book.-Hsun-Hsien Chang, Computing Reviews, March 2012My favorite chapters were on dynamic linear models and vector AR and vector ARMA models.-William Seaver, Technometrics, August 2011… a very modern entry to the field of time-series modelling, with a rich reference list of the current lit

  19. Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control

    CERN Document Server

    Box, George E P; Reinsel, Gregory C

    2011-01-01

    A modernized new edition of one of the most trusted books on time series analysis. Since publication of the first edition in 1970, Time Series Analysis has served as one of the most influential and prominent works on the subject. This new edition maintains its balanced presentation of the tools for modeling and analyzing time series and also introduces the latest developments that have occurred n the field over the past decade through applications from areas such as business, finance, and engineering. The Fourth Edition provides a clearly written exploration of the key methods for building, cl

  20. Bartus Iris biometrics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, R.; Grace, W.

    1996-07-01

    This is the final report of a one-year, Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). We won a 1994 R&D 100 Award for inventing the Bartas Iris Verification System. The system has been delivered to a sponsor and is no longer available to us. This technology can verify the identity of a person for purposes of access control, national security, law enforcement, forensics, counter-terrorism, and medical, financial, or scholastic records. The technique is non-invasive, psychologically acceptable, works in real-time, and obtains more biometric data than any other biometric except DNA analysis. This project sought to develop a new, second-generation prototype instrument.

  1. Visibility Graph Based Time Series Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutua Stephen

    Full Text Available Network based time series analysis has made considerable achievements in the recent years. By mapping mono/multivariate time series into networks, one can investigate both it's microscopic and macroscopic behaviors. However, most proposed approaches lead to the construction of static networks consequently providing limited information on evolutionary behaviors. In the present paper we propose a method called visibility graph based time series analysis, in which series segments are mapped to visibility graphs as being descriptions of the corresponding states and the successively occurring states are linked. This procedure converts a time series to a temporal network and at the same time a network of networks. Findings from empirical records for stock markets in USA (S&P500 and Nasdaq and artificial series generated by means of fractional Gaussian motions show that the method can provide us rich information benefiting short-term and long-term predictions. Theoretically, we propose a method to investigate time series from the viewpoint of network of networks.

  2. Forecasting Daily Time Series using Periodic Unobserved Components Time Series Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius

    2004-01-01

    We explore a periodic analysis in the context of unobserved components time series models that decompose time series into components of interest such as trend and seasonal. Periodic time series models allow dynamic characteristics to depend on the period of the year, month, week or day. In the stand

  3. Measuring nonlinear behavior in time series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wai, Phoong Seuk; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-12-01

    Stationary Test is an important test in detect the time series behavior since financial and economic data series always have missing data, structural change as well as jumps or breaks in the data set. Moreover, stationary test is able to transform the nonlinear time series variable to become stationary by taking difference-stationary process or trend-stationary process. Two different types of hypothesis testing of stationary tests that are Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and Kwiatkowski-Philips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test are examine in this paper to describe the properties of the time series variables in financial model. Besides, Least Square method is used in Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to detect the changes of the series and Lagrange multiplier is used in Kwiatkowski-Philips-Schmidt-Shin test to examine the properties of oil price, gold price and Malaysia stock market. Moreover, Quandt-Andrews, Bai-Perron and Chow tests are also use to detect the existence of break in the data series. The monthly index data are ranging from December 1989 until May 2012. Result is shown that these three series exhibit nonlinear properties but are able to transform to stationary series after taking first difference process.

  4. Complex network approach to fractional time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to extract correlation information inherited in stochastic time series, the visibility graph algorithm has been recently proposed, by which a time series can be mapped onto a complex network. We demonstrate that the visibility algorithm is not an appropriate one to study the correlation aspects of a time series. We then employ the horizontal visibility algorithm, as a much simpler one, to map fractional processes onto complex networks. The degree distributions are shown to have parabolic exponential forms with Hurst dependent fitting parameter. Further, we take into account other topological properties such as maximum eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix and the degree assortativity, and show that such topological quantities can also be used to predict the Hurst exponent, with an exception for anti-persistent fractional Gaussian noises. To solve this problem, we take into account the Spearman correlation coefficient between nodes' degrees and their corresponding data values in the original time series

  5. Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghil, M.; Allen, M.R.; Dettinger, M.D.; Ide, K.; Kondrashov, D.; Mann, M.E.; Robertson, A.W.; Saunders, A.; Tian, Y.; Varadi, F.; Yiou, P.

    2002-01-01

    The analysis of univariate or multivariate time series provides crucial information to describe, understand, and predict climatic variability. The discovery and implementation of a number of novel methods for extracting useful information from time series has recently revitalized this classical field of study. Considerable progress has also been made in interpreting the information so obtained in terms of dynamical systems theory. In this review we describe the connections between time series analysis and nonlinear dynamics, discuss signal- to-noise enhancement, and present some of the novel methods for spectral analysis. The various steps, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of these methods, are illustrated by their application to an important climatic time series, the Southern Oscillation Index. This index captures major features of interannual climate variability and is used extensively in its prediction. Regional and global sea surface temperature data sets are used to illustrate multivariate spectral methods. Open questions and further prospects conclude the review.

  6. Complex network approach to fractional time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manshour, Pouya

    2015-10-01

    In order to extract correlation information inherited in stochastic time series, the visibility graph algorithm has been recently proposed, by which a time series can be mapped onto a complex network. We demonstrate that the visibility algorithm is not an appropriate one to study the correlation aspects of a time series. We then employ the horizontal visibility algorithm, as a much simpler one, to map fractional processes onto complex networks. The degree distributions are shown to have parabolic exponential forms with Hurst dependent fitting parameter. Further, we take into account other topological properties such as maximum eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix and the degree assortativity, and show that such topological quantities can also be used to predict the Hurst exponent, with an exception for anti-persistent fractional Gaussian noises. To solve this problem, we take into account the Spearman correlation coefficient between nodes' degrees and their corresponding data values in the original time series.

  7. Applied time series analysis and innovative computing

    CERN Document Server

    Ao, Sio-Iong

    2010-01-01

    This text is a systematic, state-of-the-art introduction to the use of innovative computing paradigms as an investigative tool for applications in time series analysis. It includes frontier case studies based on recent research.

  8. Detecting nonlinear structure in time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We describe an approach for evaluating the statistical significance of evidence for nonlinearity in a time series. The formal application of our method requires the careful statement of a null hypothesis which characterizes a candidate linear process, the generation of an ensemble of ''surrogate'' data sets which are similar to the original time series but consistent with the null hypothesis, and the computation of a discriminating statistic for the original and for each of the surrogate data sets. The idea is to test the original time series against the null hypothesis by checking whether the discriminating statistic computed for the original time series differs significantly from the statistics computed for each of the surrogate sets. While some data sets very cleanly exhibit low-dimensional chaos, there are many cases where the evidence is sketchy and difficult to evaluate. We hope to provide a framework within which such claims of nonlinearity can be evaluated. 5 refs., 4 figs

  9. Bayes linear variance adjustment for time series

    CERN Document Server

    Wilkinson, Darren J

    2008-01-01

    This paper exhibits quadratic products of linear combinations of observables which identify the covariance structure underlying the univariate locally linear time series dynamic linear model. The first- and second-order moments for the joint distribution over these observables are given, allowing Bayes linear learning for the underlying covariance structure for the time series model. An example is given which illustrates the methodology and highlights the practical implications of the theory.

  10. FATS: Feature Analysis for Time Series

    CERN Document Server

    Nun, Isadora; Sim, Brandon; Zhu, Ming; Dave, Rahul; Castro, Nicolas; Pichara, Karim

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we present the FATS (Feature Analysis for Time Series) library. FATS is a Python library which facilitates and standardizes feature extraction for time series data. In particular, we focus on one application: feature extraction for astronomical light curve data, although the library is generalizable for other uses. We detail the methods and features implemented for light curve analysis, and present examples for its usage.

  11. Combination prediction method of chaotic time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO DongHua; RUAN Jiong; CAI ZhiJie

    2007-01-01

    In the present paper, we propose an approach of combination prediction of chaotic time series. The method is based on the adding-weight one-rank local-region method of chaotic time series. The method allows us to define an interval containing a future value with a given probability, which is obtained by studying the prediction error distribution. Its effectiveness is shown with data generated by Logistic map.

  12. Nonlinear time series: semiparametric and nonparametric methods

    OpenAIRE

    Gao, Jiti

    2007-01-01

    Useful in the theoretical and empirical analysis of nonlinear time series data, semiparametric methods have received extensive attention in the economics and statistics communities over the past twenty years. Recent studies show that semiparametric methods and models may be applied to solve dimensionality reduction problems arising from using fully nonparametric models and methods. Answering the call for an up-to-date overview of the latest developments in the field, "Nonlinear Time Series: S...

  13. A lightweight approach for biometric template protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Assam, Hisham; Sellahewa, Harin; Jassim, Sabah

    2009-05-01

    Privacy and security are vital concerns for practical biometric systems. The concept of cancelable or revocable biometrics has been proposed as a solution for biometric template security. Revocable biometric means that biometric templates are no longer fixed over time and could be revoked in the same way as lost or stolen credit cards are. In this paper, we describe a novel and an efficient approach to biometric template protection that meets the revocability property. This scheme can be incorporated into any biometric verification scheme while maintaining, if not improving, the accuracy of the original biometric system. However, we shall demonstrate the result of applying such transforms on face biometric templates and compare the efficiency of our approach with that of the well-known random projection techniques. We shall also present the results of experimental work on recognition accuracy before and after applying the proposed transform on feature vectors that are generated by wavelet transforms. These results are based on experiments conducted on a number of well-known face image databases, e.g. Yale and ORL databases.

  14. Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Montgomery, Douglas C; Kulahci, Murat

    2008-01-01

    An accessible introduction to the most current thinking in and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data. Analyzing time-oriented data and forecasting are among the most important problems that analysts face across many fields, ranging from finance and economics to production operations and the natural sciences. As a result, there is a widespread need for large groups of people in a variety of fields to understand the basic concepts of time series analysis and forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting presents the time series analysis branch of applied statistics as the underlying methodology for developing practical forecasts, and it also bridges the gap between theory and practice by equipping readers with the tools needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct useful, short- to medium-term, statistically based forecasts.

  15. Time series irreversibility: a visibility graph approach

    CERN Document Server

    Lacasa, Lucas; Roldán, Édgar; Parrondo, Juan M R; Luque, Bartolo

    2011-01-01

    We propose a method to measure real-valued time series irreversibility which combines two differ- ent tools: the horizontal visibility algorithm and the Kullback-Leibler divergence. This method maps a time series to a directed network according to a geometric criterion. The degree of irreversibility of the series is then estimated by the Kullback-Leibler divergence (i.e. the distinguishability) between the in and out degree distributions of the associated graph. The method is computationally effi- cient, does not require any ad hoc symbolization process, and naturally takes into account multiple scales. We find that the method correctly distinguishes between reversible and irreversible station- ary time series, including analytical and numerical studies of its performance for: (i) reversible stochastic processes (uncorrelated and Gaussian linearly correlated), (ii) irreversible stochastic pro- cesses (a discrete flashing ratchet in an asymmetric potential), (iii) reversible (conservative) and irreversible (di...

  16. Multiscale entropy analysis of electroseismic time series

    OpenAIRE

    L. Guzmán-Vargas; Ramírez-Rojas, A.; Angulo-Brown, F.

    2008-01-01

    In this work we use the multiscale entropy method to analyse the variability of geo-electric time series monitored in two sites located in Mexico. In our analysis we consider a period of time from January 1995 to December 1995. We systematically calculate the sample entropy of electroseismic time series. Important differences in the entropy profile for several time scales are observed in records from the same station. In particular, a complex behaviour is observed in the vicinity of a

  17. Time Series Forecasting with Missing Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shin-Fu Wu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Time series prediction has become more popular in various kinds of applications such as weather prediction, control engineering, financial analysis, industrial monitoring, etc. To deal with real-world problems, we are often faced with missing values in the data due to sensor malfunctions or human errors. Traditionally, the missing values are simply omitted or replaced by means of imputation methods. However, omitting those missing values may cause temporal discontinuity. Imputation methods, on the other hand, may alter the original time series. In this study, we propose a novel forecasting method based on least squares support vector machine (LSSVM. We employ the input patterns with the temporal information which is defined as local time index (LTI. Time series data as well as local time indexes are fed to LSSVM for doing forecasting without imputation. We compare the forecasting performance of our method with other imputation methods. Experimental results show that the proposed method is promising and is worth further investigations.

  18. Testing time symmetry in time series using data compression dictionaries

    OpenAIRE

    Kennel, Matthew B.

    2004-01-01

    Time symmetry, often called statistical time reversibility, in a dynamical process means that any segment of time-series output has the same probability of occurrence in the process as its time reversal. A technique, based on symbolic dynamics, is proposed to distinguish such symmetrical processes from asymmetrical ones, given a time-series observation of the otherwise unknown process. Because linear stochastic Gaussian processes, and static nonlinear transformations of them, are statisticall...

  19. Biometrics in forensic science: challenges, lessons and new technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tistarelli, Massimo; Grosso, Enrico; Meuwly, Didier

    2014-01-01

    Biometrics has historically found its natural mate in Forensics. The first applications found in the literature and over cited so many times, are related to biometric measurements for the identification of multiple offenders from some of their biometric and anthropometric characteristics (tenprint c

  20. Feature Matching in Time Series Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Xia, Yingcun

    2011-01-01

    Using a time series model to mimic an observed time series has a long history. However, with regard to this objective, conventional estimation methods for discrete-time dynamical models are frequently found to be wanting. In the absence of a true model, we prefer an alternative approach to conventional model fitting that typically involves one-step-ahead prediction errors. Our primary aim is to match the joint probability distribution of the observable time series, including long-term features of the dynamics that underpin the data, such as cycles, long memory and others, rather than short-term prediction. For want of a better name, we call this specific aim {\\it feature matching}. The challenges of model mis-specification, measurement errors and the scarcity of data are forever present in real time series modelling. In this paper, by synthesizing earlier attempts into an extended-likelihood, we develop a systematic approach to empirical time series analysis to address these challenges and to aim at achieving...

  1. A survey on biometric cryptosystems and cancelable biometrics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rathgeb Christian

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Form a privacy perspective most concerns against the common use of biometrics arise from the storage and misuse of biometric data. Biometric cryptosystems and cancelable biometrics represent emerging technologies of biometric template protection addressing these concerns and improving public confidence and acceptance of biometrics. In addition, biometric cryptosystems provide mechanisms for biometric-dependent key-release. In the last years a significant amount of approaches to both technologies have been published. A comprehensive survey of biometric cryptosystems and cancelable biometrics is presented. State-of-the-art approaches are reviewed based on which an in-depth discussion and an outlook to future prospects are given.

  2. Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Montgomery, Douglas C; Kulahci, Murat

    2015-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ""…[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics."" -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts.    Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both

  3. Biometric-based Technologies

    OpenAIRE

    OECD

    2004-01-01

    This report is intended to provide an understanding of the benefits and limitations of biometric-based technologies. It also includes information on existing privacy and security methodologies for assessing biometrics.

  4. Behavioural Biometrics in Biomedicine

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Schlenker, Anna; Šárek, M.

    Prague, 2013, nestr. [EFMI 2013 Special Topic Conference. Prague (CZ), 17.04.2013-19.04.2013] Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : biometrics * behavioural biometrics * keystroke dynamics * mouse dynamics Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science

  5. Building Chaotic Model From Incomplete Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siek, Michael; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2010-05-01

    This paper presents a number of novel techniques for building a predictive chaotic model from incomplete time series. A predictive chaotic model is built by reconstructing the time-delayed phase space from observed time series and the prediction is made by a global model or adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space. In general, the building of any data-driven models depends on the completeness and quality of the data itself. However, the completeness of the data availability can not always be guaranteed since the measurement or data transmission is intermittently not working properly due to some reasons. We propose two main solutions dealing with incomplete time series: using imputing and non-imputing methods. For imputing methods, we utilized the interpolation methods (weighted sum of linear interpolations, Bayesian principle component analysis and cubic spline interpolation) and predictive models (neural network, kernel machine, chaotic model) for estimating the missing values. After imputing the missing values, the phase space reconstruction and chaotic model prediction are executed as a standard procedure. For non-imputing methods, we reconstructed the time-delayed phase space from observed time series with missing values. This reconstruction results in non-continuous trajectories. However, the local model prediction can still be made from the other dynamical neighbors reconstructed from non-missing values. We implemented and tested these methods to construct a chaotic model for predicting storm surges at Hoek van Holland as the entrance of Rotterdam Port. The hourly surge time series is available for duration of 1990-1996. For measuring the performance of the proposed methods, a synthetic time series with missing values generated by a particular random variable to the original (complete) time series is utilized. There exist two main performance measures used in this work: (1) error measures between the actual

  6. Fractal and natural time analysis of geoelectrical time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez Rojas, A.; Moreno-Torres, L. R.; Cervantes, F.

    2013-05-01

    In this work we show the analysis of geoelectric time series linked with two earthquakes of M=6.6 and M=7.4. That time series were monitored at the South Pacific Mexican coast, which is the most important active seismic subduction zone in México. The geolectric time series were analyzed by using two complementary methods: a fractal analysis, by means of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) in the conventional time, and the power spectrum defined in natural time domain (NTD). In conventional time we found long-range correlations prior to the EQ-occurrences and simultaneously in NTD, the behavior of the power spectrum suggest the possible existence of seismo electric signals (SES) similar with the previously reported in equivalent time series monitored in Greece prior to earthquakes of relevant magnitude.

  7. Layered Ensemble Architecture for Time Series Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md Mustafizur; Islam, Md Monirul; Murase, Kazuyuki; Yao, Xin

    2016-01-01

    Time series forecasting (TSF) has been widely used in many application areas such as science, engineering, and finance. The phenomena generating time series are usually unknown and information available for forecasting is only limited to the past values of the series. It is, therefore, necessary to use an appropriate number of past values, termed lag, for forecasting. This paper proposes a layered ensemble architecture (LEA) for TSF problems. Our LEA consists of two layers, each of which uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks. While the first ensemble layer tries to find an appropriate lag, the second ensemble layer employs the obtained lag for forecasting. Unlike most previous work on TSF, the proposed architecture considers both accuracy and diversity of the individual networks in constructing an ensemble. LEA trains different networks in the ensemble by using different training sets with an aim of maintaining diversity among the networks. However, it uses the appropriate lag and combines the best trained networks to construct the ensemble. This indicates LEAs emphasis on accuracy of the networks. The proposed architecture has been tested extensively on time series data of neural network (NN)3 and NN5 competitions. It has also been tested on several standard benchmark time series data. In terms of forecasting accuracy, our experimental results have revealed clearly that LEA is better than other ensemble and nonensemble methods. PMID:25751882

  8. Climate Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, P. C.; Fildes, R.

    2009-04-01

    This paper will discuss various aspects of climate time series data analysis, modelling and forecasting being carried out at Lancaster. This will include state-dependent parameter, nonlinear, stochastic modelling of globally averaged atmospheric carbon dioxide; the computation of emission strategies based on modern control theory; and extrapolative time series benchmark forecasts of annual average temperature, both global and local. The key to the forecasting evaluation will be the iterative estimation of forecast error based on rolling origin comparisons, as recommended in the forecasting research literature. The presentation will conclude with with a comparison of the time series forecasts with forecasts produced from global circulation models and a discussion of the implications for climate modelling research.

  9. CALENDAR EFFECTS IN MONTHLY TIME SERIES MODELS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gerhard THURY; Mi ZHOU

    2005-01-01

    It is not unusual for the level of a monthly economic time series, such as industrial production,retail and wholesale sales, monetary aggregates, telephone calls or road accidents, to be influenced by calendar effects. Such effects arise when changes occur in the level of activity resulting from differences in the composition of calendar between years. The two main sources of calendar effects are trading day variations and moving festivals. Ignoring such calendar effects will lead to substantial distortions in the identification stage of time series modeling. Therefore, it is mandatory to introduce calendar effects, when they are present in a time series, as the component of the model which one wants to estimate.

  10. BIOMETRICS BASED USER AUTHENTICATION

    OpenAIRE

    Tanuj Tiwari; Tanya Tiwari2; Sanjay Tiwari

    2015-01-01

    Biometrics is automated methods of recognizing a person based on a physiological or behavioral characteristic. Biometrics technologies are base for a plethora of highly secure identification and personal verification solutions. It is measurement of biological characteristics – either physiological or behavioral – that verify the claimed identity of an individual. Physiological biometrics include fingerprints, iris recognition. voice verification, retina recognition, palm vein patt...

  11. Fuzzy Information Granules in Time Series Data

    OpenAIRE

    HEIKO HOFER; ORTOLANI M; DAVID PATTERSON; FRANK HOEPPNER; ONDINE CALLAN; Berthold, Michael R

    2004-01-01

    Often, it is desirable to represent a set of time series through typical shapes in order to detect common patterns. The algorithm presented here compares pieces of a different time series in order to find such similar shapes. The use of a fuzzy clustering technique based on fuzzy c-means allows us to detect shapes that belong to a certain group of typical shapes with a degree of membership. Modifications to the original algorithm also allow this matching to be invariant with respect to a scal...

  12. Case study in time series analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Zhongjie, Xie

    1993-01-01

    This book is a monograph on case studies using time series analysis, which includes the main research works applied to practical projects by the author in the past 15 years. The works cover different problems in broad fields, such as: engineering, labour protection, astronomy, physiology, endocrinology, oil development, etc. The first part of this book introduces some basic knowledge of time series analysis which is necessary for the reader to understand the methods and the theory used in the procedure for solving problems. The second part is the main part of this book - case studies in differ

  13. Improving the prediction of chaotic time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李克平; 高自友; 陈天仑

    2003-01-01

    One of the features of deterministic chaos is sensitive to initial conditions. This feature limits the prediction horizons of many chaotic systems. In this paper, we propose a new prediction technique for chaotic time series. In our method, some neighbouring points of the predicted point, for which the corresponding local Lyapunov exponent is particularly large, would be discarded during estimating the local dynamics, and thus the error accumulated by the prediction algorithm is reduced. The model is tested for the convection amplitude of Lorenz systems. The simulation results indicate that the prediction technique can improve the prediction of chaotic time series.

  14. Lecture notes for Advanced Time Series Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Holst, Jan

    1997-01-01

    A first version of this notes was used at the lectures in Grenoble, and they are now extended and improved (together with Jan Holst), and used in Ph.D. courses on Advanced Time Series Analysis at IMM and at the Department of Mathematical Statistics, University of Lund, 1994, 1997, ......A first version of this notes was used at the lectures in Grenoble, and they are now extended and improved (together with Jan Holst), and used in Ph.D. courses on Advanced Time Series Analysis at IMM and at the Department of Mathematical Statistics, University of Lund, 1994, 1997, ...

  15. Dynamical networks reconstructed from time series

    CERN Document Server

    Levnajić, Zoran

    2012-01-01

    Novel method of reconstructing dynamical networks from empirically measured time series is proposed. By statistically examining the correlations between motions displayed by network nodes, we derive a simple equation that directly yields the adjacency matrix, assuming the intra-network interaction functions to be known. We illustrate the method's implementation on a simple example and discuss the dependence of the reconstruction precision on the properties of time series. Our method is applicable to any network, allowing for reconstruction precision to be maximized, and errors to be estimated.

  16. Introduction to time series and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Brockwell, Peter J

    2016-01-01

    This book is aimed at the reader who wishes to gain a working knowledge of time series and forecasting methods as applied to economics, engineering and the natural and social sciences. It assumes knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra and elementary statistics. This third edition contains detailed instructions for the use of the professional version of the Windows-based computer package ITSM2000, now available as a free download from the Springer Extras website. The logic and tools of time series model-building are developed in detail. Numerous exercises are included and the software can be used to analyze and forecast data sets of the user's own choosing. The book can also be used in conjunction with other time series packages such as those included in R. The programs in ITSM2000 however are menu-driven and can be used with minimal investment of time in the computational details. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space mod...

  17. Learning a Mahalanobis Distance-Based Dynamic Time Warping Measure for Multivariate Time Series Classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mei, Jiangyuan; Liu, Meizhu; Wang, Yuan-Fang; Gao, Huijun

    2016-06-01

    Multivariate time series (MTS) datasets broadly exist in numerous fields, including health care, multimedia, finance, and biometrics. How to classify MTS accurately has become a hot research topic since it is an important element in many computer vision and pattern recognition applications. In this paper, we propose a Mahalanobis distance-based dynamic time warping (DTW) measure for MTS classification. The Mahalanobis distance builds an accurate relationship between each variable and its corresponding category. It is utilized to calculate the local distance between vectors in MTS. Then we use DTW to align those MTS which are out of synchronization or with different lengths. After that, how to learn an accurate Mahalanobis distance function becomes another key problem. This paper establishes a LogDet divergence-based metric learning with triplet constraint model which can learn Mahalanobis matrix with high precision and robustness. Furthermore, the proposed method is applied on nine MTS datasets selected from the University of California, Irvine machine learning repository and Robert T. Olszewski's homepage, and the results demonstrate the improved performance of the proposed approach. PMID:25966490

  18. Time series tapering for short data samples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaimal, J.C.; Kristensen, L.

    We explore the effect of applying tapered windows on atmospheric data to eliminate overestimation inherent in spectra computed from short time series. Some windows are more effective than others in correcting this distortion. The Hamming window gave the best results with experimental data. The Ha...

  19. Asymptotic spectral theory for nonlinear time series

    OpenAIRE

    Shao, Xiaofeng; Wu, Wei Biao

    2007-01-01

    We consider asymptotic problems in spectral analysis of stationary causal processes. Limiting distributions of periodograms and smoothed periodogram spectral density estimates are obtained and applications to the spectral domain bootstrap are given. Instead of the commonly used strong mixing conditions, in our asymptotic spectral theory we impose conditions only involving (conditional) moments, which are easily verifiable for a variety of nonlinear time series.

  20. On Bayesian Nonparametric Continuous Time Series Models

    OpenAIRE

    Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper is a note on the use of Bayesian nonparametric mixture models for continuous time series. We identify a key requirement for such models, and then establish that there is a single type of model which meets this requirement. As it turns out, the model is well known in multiple change-point problems.

  1. Nonlinear Time Series Analysis via Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volná, Eva; Janošek, Michal; Kocian, Václav; Kotyrba, Martin

    This article deals with a time series analysis based on neural networks in order to make an effective forex market [Moore and Roche, J. Int. Econ. 58, 387-411 (2002)] pattern recognition. Our goal is to find and recognize important patterns which repeatedly appear in the market history to adapt our trading system behaviour based on them.

  2. Nonlinear time-series analysis revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Elizabeth; Kantz, Holger

    2015-09-01

    In 1980 and 1981, two pioneering papers laid the foundation for what became known as nonlinear time-series analysis: the analysis of observed data-typically univariate-via dynamical systems theory. Based on the concept of state-space reconstruction, this set of methods allows us to compute characteristic quantities such as Lyapunov exponents and fractal dimensions, to predict the future course of the time series, and even to reconstruct the equations of motion in some cases. In practice, however, there are a number of issues that restrict the power of this approach: whether the signal accurately and thoroughly samples the dynamics, for instance, and whether it contains noise. Moreover, the numerical algorithms that we use to instantiate these ideas are not perfect; they involve approximations, scale parameters, and finite-precision arithmetic, among other things. Even so, nonlinear time-series analysis has been used to great advantage on thousands of real and synthetic data sets from a wide variety of systems ranging from roulette wheels to lasers to the human heart. Even in cases where the data do not meet the mathematical or algorithmic requirements to assure full topological conjugacy, the results of nonlinear time-series analysis can be helpful in understanding, characterizing, and predicting dynamical systems. PMID:26428563

  3. Inferring causality from noisy time series data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mønster, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian;

    2016-01-01

    even causality direction in synchronized time-series and in the presence of intermediate coupling. We find that the presence of noise deterministically reduces the level of cross-mapping fidelity, while the convergence rate exhibits higher levels of robustness. Finally, we propose that controlled noise...

  4. Nonlinear time-series analysis revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Elizabeth; Kantz, Holger

    2015-09-01

    In 1980 and 1981, two pioneering papers laid the foundation for what became known as nonlinear time-series analysis: the analysis of observed data—typically univariate—via dynamical systems theory. Based on the concept of state-space reconstruction, this set of methods allows us to compute characteristic quantities such as Lyapunov exponents and fractal dimensions, to predict the future course of the time series, and even to reconstruct the equations of motion in some cases. In practice, however, there are a number of issues that restrict the power of this approach: whether the signal accurately and thoroughly samples the dynamics, for instance, and whether it contains noise. Moreover, the numerical algorithms that we use to instantiate these ideas are not perfect; they involve approximations, scale parameters, and finite-precision arithmetic, among other things. Even so, nonlinear time-series analysis has been used to great advantage on thousands of real and synthetic data sets from a wide variety of systems ranging from roulette wheels to lasers to the human heart. Even in cases where the data do not meet the mathematical or algorithmic requirements to assure full topological conjugacy, the results of nonlinear time-series analysis can be helpful in understanding, characterizing, and predicting dynamical systems.

  5. Mobile networks for biometric data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Madrid, Natividad; Seepold, Ralf; Orcioni, Simone

    2016-01-01

    This book showcases new and innovative approaches to biometric data capture and analysis, focusing especially on those that are characterized by non-intrusiveness, reliable prediction algorithms, and high user acceptance. It comprises the peer-reviewed papers from the international workshop on the subject that was held in Ancona, Italy, in October 2014 and featured sessions on ICT for health care, biometric data in automotive and home applications, embedded systems for biometric data analysis, biometric data analysis: EMG and ECG, and ICT for gait analysis. The background to the book is the challenge posed by the prevention and treatment of common, widespread chronic diseases in modern, aging societies. Capture of biometric data is a cornerstone for any analysis and treatment strategy. The latest advances in sensor technology allow accurate data measurement in a non-intrusive way, and in many cases it is necessary to provide online monitoring and real-time data capturing to support a patient’s prevention pl...

  6. Time Series Prediction Based on Chaotic Attractor

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIKe-Ping; CHENTian-Lun; GAOZi-You

    2003-01-01

    A new prediction technique is proposed for chaotic time series. The usefulness of the technique is that it can kick off some false neighbor points which are not suitable for the local estimation of the dynamics systems. A time-delayed embedding is used to reconstruct the underlying attractor, and the prediction model is based on the time evolution of the topological neighboring in the phase space. We use a feedforward neural network to approximate the local dominant Lyapunov exponent, and choose the spatial neighbors by the Lyapunov exponent. The model is tested for the Mackey-Glass equation and the convection amplitude of lorenz systems. The results indicate that this prediction technique can improve the prediction of chaotic time series.

  7. Multiscale entropy analysis of electroseismic time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Guzmán-Vargas

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available In this work we use the multiscale entropy method to analyse the variability of geo-electric time series monitored in two sites located in Mexico. In our analysis we consider a period of time from January 1995 to December 1995. We systematically calculate the sample entropy of electroseismic time series. Important differences in the entropy profile for several time scales are observed in records from the same station. In particular, a complex behaviour is observed in the vicinity of a M=7.4 EQ occurred on 14 September 1995. Besides, we also compare the changes in the entropy of the original data with their corresponding shuffled version.

  8. Time Series Analysis Using Composite Multiscale Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kung-Yen Lee

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Multiscale entropy (MSE was recently developed to evaluate the complexity of time series over different time scales. Although the MSE algorithm has been successfully applied in a number of different fields, it encounters a problem in that the statistical reliability of the sample entropy (SampEn of a coarse-grained series is reduced as a time scale factor is increased. Therefore, in this paper, the concept of a composite multiscale entropy (CMSE is introduced to overcome this difficulty. Simulation results on both white noise and 1/f noise show that the CMSE provides higher entropy reliablity than the MSE approach for large time scale factors. On real data analysis, both the MSE and CMSE are applied to extract features from fault bearing vibration signals. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed CMSE-based feature extractor provides higher separability than the MSE-based feature extractor.

  9. Fractal Analysis On Internet Traffic Time Series

    CERN Document Server

    Chong, K B

    2002-01-01

    Fractal behavior and long-range dependence have been observed in tele-traffic measurement and characterization. In this paper we show results of application of the fractal analysis to internet traffic via various methods. Our result demonstrate that the internet traffic exhibits self-similarity. Time-scale analysis show to be an effective way to characterize the local irregularity. Based on the result of this study, these two Internet time series exhibit fractal characteristic with long-range dependence.

  10. Time series regression studies in environmental epidemiology

    OpenAIRE

    Bhaskaran, Krishnan; Gasparrini, Antonio; Hajat, Shakoor; Smeeth, Liam; Armstrong, Ben

    2013-01-01

    Time series regression studies have been widely used in environmental epidemiology, notably in investigating the short-term associations between exposures such as air pollution, weather variables or pollen, and health outcomes such as mortality, myocardial infarction or disease-specific hospital admissions. Typically, for both exposure and outcome, data are available at regular time intervals (e.g. daily pollution levels and daily mortality counts) and the aim is to explore short-term associa...

  11. Biometrics and Identity Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    security and border control scenarios it is now apparent that the widespread availability of biometrics in everyday life will also spin out an ever increasing number of (private) applications in other domains. Crucial to this vision is the management of the user's identity, which does not only imply the...... creation and update of a biometric template, but requires the development of instruments to properly handle all the data and operations related to the user identity. These proceedings contain the selected and revised papers that were presented during the first European Workshop on Biometrics and Identity...... biometrics, Biometric attacks and countermeasures, Standards and privacy issues for biometrics in identity documents and smart cards. BIOID 2008 is an initiative of the COST Action 2101 on Biometrics for Identity Documents and Smart Cards. It is supported by the EU Framework 7 Programme. Other sponsors of...

  12. TIME SERIES FORECASTING USING NEURAL NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BOGDAN OANCEA

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have shown the classification and prediction power of the Neural Networks. It has been demonstrated that a NN can approximate any continuous function. Neural networks have been successfully used for forecasting of financial data series. The classical methods used for time series prediction like Box-Jenkins or ARIMA assumes that there is a linear relationship between inputs and outputs. Neural Networks have the advantage that can approximate nonlinear functions. In this paper we compared the performances of different feed forward and recurrent neural networks and training algorithms for predicting the exchange rate EUR/RON and USD/RON. We used data series with daily exchange rates starting from 2005 until 2013.

  13. Time series regression studies in environmental epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaskaran, Krishnan; Gasparrini, Antonio; Hajat, Shakoor; Smeeth, Liam; Armstrong, Ben

    2013-08-01

    Time series regression studies have been widely used in environmental epidemiology, notably in investigating the short-term associations between exposures such as air pollution, weather variables or pollen, and health outcomes such as mortality, myocardial infarction or disease-specific hospital admissions. Typically, for both exposure and outcome, data are available at regular time intervals (e.g. daily pollution levels and daily mortality counts) and the aim is to explore short-term associations between them. In this article, we describe the general features of time series data, and we outline the analysis process, beginning with descriptive analysis, then focusing on issues in time series regression that differ from other regression methods: modelling short-term fluctuations in the presence of seasonal and long-term patterns, dealing with time varying confounding factors and modelling delayed ('lagged') associations between exposure and outcome. We finish with advice on model checking and sensitivity analysis, and some common extensions to the basic model. PMID:23760528

  14. Sliced Inverse Regression for Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Li-Sue

    1995-11-01

    In this thesis, general nonlinear models for time series data are considered. A basic form is x _{t} = f(beta_sp{1} {T}X_{t-1},beta_sp {2}{T}X_{t-1},... , beta_sp{k}{T}X_ {t-1},varepsilon_{t}), where x_{t} is an observed time series data, X_{t } is the first d time lag vector, (x _{t},x_{t-1},... ,x _{t-d-1}), f is an unknown function, beta_{i}'s are unknown vectors, varepsilon_{t }'s are independent distributed. Special cases include AR and TAR models. We investigate the feasibility applying SIR/PHD (Li 1990, 1991) (the sliced inverse regression and principal Hessian methods) in estimating beta _{i}'s. PCA (Principal component analysis) is brought in to check one critical condition for SIR/PHD. Through simulation and a study on 3 well -known data sets of Canadian lynx, U.S. unemployment rate and sunspot numbers, we demonstrate how SIR/PHD can effectively retrieve the interesting low-dimension structures for time series data.

  15. Time Series Analysis Using Geometric Template Matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Jordan; Mannor, Shie; Pineau, Joelle; Precup, Doina

    2013-03-01

    We present a novel framework for analyzing univariate time series data. At the heart of the approach is a versatile algorithm for measuring the similarity of two segments of time series called geometric template matching (GeTeM). First, we use GeTeM to compute a similarity measure for clustering and nearest-neighbor classification. Next, we present a semi-supervised learning algorithm that uses the similarity measure with hierarchical clustering in order to improve classification performance when unlabeled training data are available. Finally, we present a boosting framework called TDEBOOST, which uses an ensemble of GeTeM classifiers. TDEBOOST augments the traditional boosting approach with an additional step in which the features used as inputs to the classifier are adapted at each step to improve the training error. We empirically evaluate the proposed approaches on several datasets, such as accelerometer data collected from wearable sensors and ECG data. PMID:22641699

  16. Univariate time series forecasting algorithm validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Suzilah; Zakaria, Rohaiza; Muda, Tuan Zalizam Tuan

    2014-12-01

    Forecasting is a complex process which requires expert tacit knowledge in producing accurate forecast values. This complexity contributes to the gaps between end users and expert. Automating this process by using algorithm can act as a bridge between them. Algorithm is a well-defined rule for solving a problem. In this study a univariate time series forecasting algorithm was developed in JAVA and validated using SPSS and Excel. Two set of simulated data (yearly and non-yearly); several univariate forecasting techniques (i.e. Moving Average, Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing, Time Series Regressions and ARIMA) and recent forecasting process (such as data partition, several error measures, recursive evaluation and etc.) were employed. Successfully, the results of the algorithm tally with the results of SPSS and Excel. This algorithm will not just benefit forecaster but also end users that lacking in depth knowledge of forecasting process.

  17. Cryptographically secure biometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoianov, A.

    2010-04-01

    Biometric systems usually do not possess a cryptographic level of security: it has been deemed impossible to perform a biometric authentication in the encrypted domain because of the natural variability of biometric samples and of the cryptographic intolerance even to a single bite error. Encrypted biometric data need to be decrypted on authentication, which creates privacy and security risks. On the other hand, the known solutions called "Biometric Encryption (BE)" or "Fuzzy Extractors" can be cracked by various attacks, for example, by running offline a database of images against the stored helper data in order to obtain a false match. In this paper, we present a novel approach which combines Biometric Encryption with classical Blum-Goldwasser cryptosystem. In the "Client - Service Provider (SP)" or in the "Client - Database - SP" architecture it is possible to keep the biometric data encrypted on all the stages of the storage and authentication, so that SP never has an access to unencrypted biometric data. It is shown that this approach is suitable for two of the most popular BE schemes, Fuzzy Commitment and Quantized Index Modulation (QIM). The approach has clear practical advantages over biometric systems using "homomorphic encryption". Future work will deal with the application of the proposed solution to one-to-many biometric systems.

  18. Biometric Template Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abhishek Nagar

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Biometric recognition offers a reliable solution to the problem of user authentication in identity management systems. With the widespread deployment of biometric systems in various applications, there are increasing concerns about the security and privacy of biometric technology. Public acceptance of biometrics technology will depend on the ability of system designers to demonstrate that these systems are robust, have low error rates, and are tamper proof. We present a high-level categorization of the various vulnerabilities of a biometric system and discuss countermeasures that have been proposed to address these vulnerabilities. In particular, we focus on biometric template security which is an important issue because, unlike passwords and tokens, compromised biometric templates cannot be revoked and reissued. Protecting the template is a challenging task due to intrauser variability in the acquired biometric traits. We present an overview of various biometric template protection schemes and discuss their advantages and limitations in terms of security, revocability, and impact on matching accuracy. A template protection scheme with provable security and acceptable recognition performance has thus far remained elusive. Development of such a scheme is crucial as biometric systems are beginning to proliferate into the core physical and information infrastructure of our society.

  19. Multivariate Voronoi Outlier Detection for Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Zwilling, Chris E.; Wang, Michelle Yongmei

    2014-01-01

    Outlier detection is a primary step in many data mining and analysis applications, including healthcare and medical research. This paper presents a general method to identify outliers in multivariate time series based on a Voronoi diagram, which we call Multivariate Voronoi Outlier Detection (MVOD). The approach copes with outliers in a multivariate framework, via designing and extracting effective attributes or features from the data that can take parametric or nonparametric forms. Voronoi d...

  20. Estimation and Forecasting in Time Series Models

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Ru

    2013-01-01

    This dissertation covers several topics in estimation and forecasting in time series models. Chapter one is about estimation and feasible conditional forecasts properties from the predictive regressions, which extends previous results of OLS estimation bias in the predictive regression model by considering predictive regressions with possible zero intercepts, and also allowing the regressor to follow either a stationary AR(1) process or unit root process. The main thrust of this chapter is t...

  1. Bayes analysis of time series with covariates

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Volf, Petr

    Hradec Králové : Gaudeamus, 2005 - (Skalská, H.), s. 421-426 ISBN 978-80-7041-535-1. [Mathematical Methods in Economics 2005 /23./. Hradec Králové (CZ), 14.09.2005-16.09.2005] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/04/1294 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Bayes analysis * time series * unemployment data Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  2. Revisiting algorithms for generating surrogate time series

    CERN Document Server

    Raeth, C; Papadakis, I E; Brinkmann, W

    2011-01-01

    The method of surrogates is one of the key concepts of nonlinear data analysis. Here, we demonstrate that commonly used algorithms for generating surrogates often fail to generate truly linear time series. Rather, they create surrogate realizations with Fourier phase correlations leading to non-detections of nonlinearities. We argue that reliable surrogates can only be generated, if one tests separately for static and dynamic nonlinearities.

  3. Applying time series analysis to performance logs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubacki, Marcin; Sosnowski, Janusz

    2015-09-01

    Contemporary computer systems provide mechanisms for monitoring various performance parameters (e.g. processor or memory usage, disc or network transfers), which are collected and stored in performance logs. An important issue is to derive characteristic features describing normal and abnormal behavior of the systems. For this purpose we use various schemes of analyzing time series. They have been adapted to the specificity of performance logs and verified using data collected from real systems. The presented approach is useful in evaluating system dependability.

  4. On clustering fMRI time series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goutte, Cyril; Toft, Peter Aundal; Rostrup, E.;

    1999-01-01

    Analysis of fMRI time series is often performed by extracting one or more parameters for the individual voxels. Methods based, e.g., on various statistical tests are then used to yield parameters corresponding to probability of activation or activation strength. However, these methods do not...... between the activation stimulus and the fMRI signal. We present two different clustering algorithms and use them to identify regions of similar activations in an fMRI experiment involving a visual stimulus....

  5. Time-series models in marketing.

    OpenAIRE

    Dekimpe, Marnik; Hanssens, DM

    2000-01-01

    Leeflang and Wittink (2000) identify three past stages in marketing model building and implementation, review the current status, and provide some intriguing thoughts on how the model-building process may evolve in response to ongoing and anticipated developments in the marketing environment. It is interesting to note that time-series techniques are not mentioned in their review of the past, receive considerable attention in their assessment of the current situation (mainly in the context of ...

  6. Nonparametric inference for unbalance time series data

    OpenAIRE

    Oliver Linton

    2004-01-01

    Estimation of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrices (HACs) is a well established problem in time series. Results have been established under a variety of weak conditions on temporal dependence and heterogeneity that allow one to conduct inference on a variety of statistics, see Newey and West (1987), Hansen (1992), de Jong and Davidson (2000), and Robinson (2004). Indeed there is an extensive literature on automating these procedures starting with Andrews (1991...

  7. Nonparametric inference for unbalanced time series data

    OpenAIRE

    Linton, Oliver Bruce

    2004-01-01

    Estimation of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrices (HACs) is a well established problem in time series. Results have been established under a variety of weak conditions on temporal dependence and heterogeneity that allow one to conduct inference on a variety of statistics, see Newey and West (1987), Hansen (1992), de Jong and Davidson (2000), and Robinson (2004). Indeed there is an extensive literature on automating these procedures starting with Andrews (1991...

  8. Evolving time series forecasting ARMA models

    OpenAIRE

    Cortez, Paulo; Rocha, Miguel

    2004-01-01

    Nowadays, the ability to forecast the future, based only on past data, leads to strategic advantages, which may be the key to success in organizations. Time Series Forecasting (TSF) allows the modeling of complex systems as ``black-boxes'', being a focus of attention in several research arenas such as Operational Research, Statistics or Computer Science. Alternative TSF approaches emerged from the Artificial Intelligence arena, where optimization algorithms inspired on natural selection pr...

  9. Time Series Forecasting with Missing Values

    OpenAIRE

    Shin-Fu Wu; Chia-Yung Chang; Shie-Jue Lee

    2015-01-01

    Time series prediction has become more popular in various kinds of applications such as weather prediction, control engineering, financial analysis, industrial monitoring, etc. To deal with real-world problems, we are often faced with missing values in the data due to sensor malfunctions or human errors. Traditionally, the missing values are simply omitted or replaced by means of imputation methods. However, omitting those missing values may cause temporal discontinuity. Imputation methods, o...

  10. Analysis of Polyphonic Musical Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Katrin; Weihs, Claus

    A general model for pitch tracking of polyphonic musical time series will be introduced. Based on a model of Davy and Godsill (Bayesian harmonic models for musical pitch estimation and analysis, Technical Report 431, Cambridge University Engineering Department, 2002) Davy and Godsill (2002) the different pitches of the musical sound are estimated with MCMC methods simultaneously. Additionally a preprocessing step is designed to improve the estimation of the fundamental frequencies (A comparative study on polyphonic musical time series using MCMC methods. In C. Preisach et al., editors, Data Analysis, Machine Learning, and Applications, Springer, Berlin, 2008). The preprocessing step compares real audio data with an alphabet constructed from the McGill Master Samples (Opolko and Wapnick, McGill University Master Samples [Compact disc], McGill University, Montreal, 1987) and consists of tones of different instruments. The tones with minimal Itakura-Saito distortion (Gray et al., Transactions on Acoustics, Speech, and Signal Processing ASSP-28(4):367-376, 1980) are chosen as first estimates and as starting points for the MCMC algorithms. Furthermore the implementation of the alphabet is an approach for the recognition of the instruments generating the musical time series. Results are presented for mixed monophonic data from McGill and for self recorded polyphonic audio data.

  11. Time Series Forecasting: A Multivariate Stochastic Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Sello, Stefano

    1999-01-01

    This note deals with a multivariate stochastic approach to forecast the behaviour of a cyclic time series. Particular attention is devoted to the problem of the prediction of time behaviour of sunspot numbers for the current 23th cycle. The idea is to consider the previous known n cycles as n particular realizations of a given stochastic process. The aim is to predict the future behaviour of the current n+1th realization given a portion of the curve and the structure of the previous n realiza...

  12. Normalizing the causality between time series

    CERN Document Server

    Liang, X San

    2015-01-01

    Recently, a rigorous yet concise formula has been derived to evaluate the information flow, and hence the causality in a quantitative sense, between time series. To assess the importance of a resulting causality, it needs to be normalized. The normalization is achieved through distinguishing three types of fundamental mechanisms that govern the marginal entropy change of the flow recipient. A normalized or relative flow measures its importance relative to other mechanisms. In analyzing realistic series, both absolute and relative information flows need to be taken into account, since the normalizers for a pair of reverse flows belong to two different entropy balances; it is quite normal that two identical flows may differ a lot in relative importance in their respective balances. We have reproduced these results with several autoregressive models. We have also shown applications to a climate change problem and a financial analysis problem. For the former, reconfirmed is the role of the Indian Ocean Dipole as ...

  13. Argos: An Optimized Time-Series Photometer

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Anjum S. Mukadam; R. E. Nather

    2005-06-01

    We designed a prime focus CCD photometer, Argos, optimized for high speed time-series measurements of blue variables (Nather & Mukadam 2004) for the 2.1 m telescope at McDonald Observatory. Lack of any intervening optics between the primary mirror and the CCD makes the instrument highly efficient.We measure an improvement in sensitivity by a factor of nine over the 3-channel PMT photometers used on the same telescope and for the same exposure time. The CCD frame transfer operation triggered by GPS synchronized pulses serves as an electronic shutter for the photometer. This minimizes the dead time between exposures, but more importantly, allows a precise control of the start and duration of the exposure. We expect the uncertainty in our timing to be less than 100 s.

  14. Biometrics and privacy

    OpenAIRE

    Grijpink, J.H.A.M.

    2001-01-01

    Biometrics offers many alternatives for protecting our privacy and preventing us from falling victim to crime. Biometrics can even serve as a solid basis for safe anonymous and semi-anonymous legal transactions. In this article Jan Grijpink clarifies which concepts and practical applications this relates to. A number of practical basic rules are also given as a guide to proceeding in a legally acceptable manner when applying biometrics. The Dutch version of this article was published in: Priv...

  15. Machine Learning for Biometrics

    OpenAIRE

    Salah, Albert Ali; Soria, E.; Martin, J. D.; Magdalena, R.; Martinez, M.; Serrano, A.J.

    2009-01-01

    Biometrics aims at reliable and robust identification of humans from their personal traits, mainly for security and authentication purposes, but also for identifying and tracking the users of smarter applications. Frequently considered modalities are fingerprint, face, iris, palmprint and voice, but there are many other possible biometrics, including gait, ear image, retina, DNA, and even behaviours. This chapter presents a survey of machine learning methods used for biometrics applications, ...

  16. Touchless fingerprint biometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Labati, Ruggero Donida; Scotti, Fabio

    2015-01-01

    Offering the first comprehensive analysis of touchless fingerprint-recognition technologies, Touchless Fingerprint Biometrics gives an overview of the state of the art and describes relevant industrial applications. It also presents new techniques to efficiently and effectively implement advanced solutions based on touchless fingerprinting.The most accurate current biometric technologies in touch-based fingerprint-recognition systems require a relatively high level of user cooperation to acquire samples of the concerned biometric trait. With the potential for reduced constraints, reduced hardw

  17. Secure Biometric Key Generation Scheme for Cryptography using Combined Biometric Features of Fingerprint and Iris

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mr.P.Balakumar

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Exact and automatic recognition and authentication of users are a essential difficulty in all systems. Shared secrets like Personal Identification Numbers or Passwords and key devices such as Smart cards are not presently sufficient in few situations. What is required is a system that could authenticate that the person is actually the person. The biometrics is improving the capability to recognize the persons. The usage of biometrics system permits the recognition of a living person according to the physiological features or behavioral features to be recognized without human involvement. This leads to the world wide usage of biometrics to secure the system. The various biometrics used in securing system are fingerprint, iris, retina, etc. The construction of cryptographic key from biometrics is used generally to secure the system. The efficiency and the flexibility of the cryptographic make it suitable for securing purpose. In some times, biometrics can be stolen; this makes the attackers to access the system for any time. This problem is diminished in this paper by using two biometrics features. The biometrics used in this paper is fingerprint and iris. These two features are combined with the help of fusion algorithm. From the combined features, cryptographic key is generated. The experimental result shows that the proposed techniques results in better security than the existing techniques.

  18. A biometric signcryption scheme without bilinear pairing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mingwen; Ren, Zhiyuan; Cai, Jun; Zheng, Wentao

    2013-03-01

    How to apply the entropy in biometrics into the encryption and remote authentication schemes to simplify the management of keys is a hot research area. Utilizing Dodis's fuzzy extractor method and Liu's original signcryption scheme, a biometric identity based signcryption scheme is proposed in this paper. The proposed scheme is more efficient than most of the previous proposed biometric signcryption schemes for that it does not need bilinear pairing computation and modular exponentiation computation which is time consuming largely. The analysis results show that under the CDH and DL hard problem assumption, the proposed scheme has the features of confidentiality and unforgeability simultaneously.

  19. Advanced topics in biometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Haizhou; Toh, Kar-Ann

    2011-01-01

    Biometrics is the study of methods for uniquely recognizing humans based on one or more intrinsic physical or behavioral traits. After decades of research activities, biometrics, as a recognized scientific discipline, has advanced considerably both in practical technology and theoretical discovery to meet the increasing need of biometric deployments. In this book, the editors provide both a concise and accessible introduction to the field as well as a detailed coverage on the unique research problems with their solutions in a wide spectrum of biometrics research ranging from voice, face, finge

  20. Biometrics Bodies, Technologies, Biopolitics

    CERN Document Server

    Pugliese, Joseph

    2012-01-01

    Biometric technologies, such as finger- or facial-scan, are being deployed across a variety of social contexts in order to facilitate and guarantee identity verification and authentication. In the post-9/11 world, biometric technologies have experienced an extraordinary period of growth as concerns about security and screening have increased. This book analyses biometric systems in terms of the application of biopolitical power - corporate, military and governmental - on the human body. It deploys cultural theory in examining the manner in which biometric technologies constitute the body as a

  1. Directed networks with underlying time structures from multivariate time series

    CERN Document Server

    Tanizawa, Toshihiro; Taya, Fumihiko

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we propose a method of constructing directed networks of time-dependent phenomena from multivariate time series. As the construction method is based on the linear model, the network fully reflects dynamical features of the system such as time structures of periodicities. Furthermore, this method can construct networks even if these time series show no similarity: situations in which common methods fail. We explicitly introduce a case where common methods do not work. This fact indicates the importance of constructing networks based on dynamical perspective, when we consider time-dependent phenomena. We apply the method to multichannel electroencephalography~(EEG) data and the result reveals underlying interdependency among the components in the brain system.

  2. Fractal fluctuations in cardiac time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, B. J.; Zhang, R.; Sanders, A. W.; Miniyar, S.; Zuckerman, J. H.; Levine, B. D.; Blomqvist, C. G. (Principal Investigator)

    1999-01-01

    Human heart rate, controlled by complex feedback mechanisms, is a vital index of systematic circulation. However, it has been shown that beat-to-beat values of heart rate fluctuate continually over a wide range of time scales. Herein we use the relative dispersion, the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean, to show, by systematically aggregating the data, that the correlation in the beat-to-beat cardiac time series is a modulated inverse power law. This scaling property indicates the existence of long-time memory in the underlying cardiac control process and supports the conclusion that heart rate variability is a temporal fractal. We argue that the cardiac control system has allometric properties that enable it to respond to a dynamical environment through scaling.

  3. Time Series Photometry of KZ Lacertae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joner, Michael D.

    2016-01-01

    We present BVRI time series photometry of the high amplitude delta Scuti star KZ Lacertae secured using the 0.9-meter telescope located at the Brigham Young University West Mountain Observatory. In addition to the multicolor light curves that are presented, the V data from the last six years of observations are used to plot an O-C diagram in order to determine the ephemeris and evaluate evidence for period change. We wish to thank the Brigham Young University College of Physical and Mathematical Sciences as well as the Department of Physics and Astronomy for their continued support of the research activities at the West Mountain Observatory.

  4. Fourier analysis of time series an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Bloomfield, Peter

    2000-01-01

    A new, revised edition of a yet unrivaled work on frequency domain analysis Long recognized for his unique focus on frequency domain methods for the analysis of time series data as well as for his applied, easy-to-understand approach, Peter Bloomfield brings his well-known 1976 work thoroughly up to date. With a minimum of mathematics and an engaging, highly rewarding style, Bloomfield provides in-depth discussions of harmonic regression, harmonic analysis, complex demodulation, and spectrum analysis. All methods are clearly illustrated using examples of specific data sets, while ample

  5. Forecasting with nonlinear time series models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kock, Anders Bredahl; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper, nonlinear models are restricted to mean nonlinear parametric models. Several such models popular in time series econo- metrics are presented and some of their properties discussed. This in- cludes two models based on universal approximators: the Kolmogorov- Gabor polynomial model a......- ular case where the data-generating process is a simple artificial neural network model. Suggestions for further reading conclude the paper....... and two versions of a simple artificial neural network model. Techniques for generating multi-period forecasts from nonlinear models recursively are considered, and the direct (non-recursive) method for this purpose is mentioned as well. Forecasting with com- plex dynamic systems, albeit less frequently...

  6. Time series analysis of temporal networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikdar, Sandipan; Ganguly, Niloy; Mukherjee, Animesh

    2016-01-01

    A common but an important feature of all real-world networks is that they are temporal in nature, i.e., the network structure changes over time. Due to this dynamic nature, it becomes difficult to propose suitable growth models that can explain the various important characteristic properties of these networks. In fact, in many application oriented studies only knowing these properties is sufficient. For instance, if one wishes to launch a targeted attack on a network, this can be done even without the knowledge of the full network structure; rather an estimate of some of the properties is sufficient enough to launch the attack. We, in this paper show that even if the network structure at a future time point is not available one can still manage to estimate its properties. We propose a novel method to map a temporal network to a set of time series instances, analyze them and using a standard forecast model of time series, try to predict the properties of a temporal network at a later time instance. To our aim, we consider eight properties such as number of active nodes, average degree, clustering coefficient etc. and apply our prediction framework on them. We mainly focus on the temporal network of human face-to-face contacts and observe that it represents a stochastic process with memory that can be modeled as Auto-Regressive-Integrated-Moving-Average (ARIMA). We use cross validation techniques to find the percentage accuracy of our predictions. An important observation is that the frequency domain properties of the time series obtained from spectrogram analysis could be used to refine the prediction framework by identifying beforehand the cases where the error in prediction is likely to be high. This leads to an improvement of 7.96% (for error level ≤20%) in prediction accuracy on an average across all datasets. As an application we show how such prediction scheme can be used to launch targeted attacks on temporal networks. Contribution to the Topical Issue

  7. Time series modelling of surface pressure data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Awadhi, Shafeeqah; Jolliffe, Ian

    1998-03-01

    In this paper we examine time series modelling of surface pressure data, as measured by a barograph, at Herne Bay, England, during the years 1981-1989. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models have been popular in many fields over the past 20 years, although applications in climatology have been rather less widespread than in some disciplines. Some recent examples are Milionis and Davies (Int. J. Climatol., 14, 569-579) and Seleshi et al. (Int. J. Climatol., 14, 911-923). We fit standard ARMA models to the pressure data separately for each of six 2-month natural seasons. Differences between the best fitting models for different seasons are discussed. Barograph data are recorded continuously, whereas ARMA models are fitted to discretely recorded data. The effect of different spacings between the fitted data on the models chosen is discussed briefly.Often, ARMA models can give a parsimonious and interpretable representation of a time series, but for many series the assumptions underlying such models are not fully satisfied, and more complex models may be considered. A specific feature of surface pressure data in the UK is that its behaviour is different at high and at low pressures: day-to-day changes are typically larger at low pressure levels than at higher levels. This means that standard assumptions used in fitting ARMA models are not valid, and two ways of overcoming this problem are investigated. Transformation of the data to better satisfy the usual assumptions is considered, as is the use of non-linear, specifically threshold autoregressive (TAR), models.

  8. Ensemble vs. time averages in financial time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seemann, Lars; Hua, Jia-Chen; McCauley, Joseph L.; Gunaratne, Gemunu H.

    2012-12-01

    Empirical analysis of financial time series suggests that the underlying stochastic dynamics are not only non-stationary, but also exhibit non-stationary increments. However, financial time series are commonly analyzed using the sliding interval technique that assumes stationary increments. We propose an alternative approach that is based on an ensemble over trading days. To determine the effects of time averaging techniques on analysis outcomes, we create an intraday activity model that exhibits periodic variable diffusion dynamics and we assess the model data using both ensemble and time averaging techniques. We find that ensemble averaging techniques detect the underlying dynamics correctly, whereas sliding intervals approaches fail. As many traded assets exhibit characteristic intraday volatility patterns, our work implies that ensemble averages approaches will yield new insight into the study of financial markets’ dynamics.

  9. Nonlinear Time Series Analysis Since 1990:Some Personal Reflections

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Howel Tong

    2002-01-01

    I reflect upon the development of nonlinear time series analysis since 1990 by focusing on five major areas of development. These areas include the interface between nonlinear time series analysis and chaos, the nonparametric/semiparametric approach, nonlinear state space modelling, financial time series and nonlinear modelling of panels of time series.

  10. Periodograms for multiband astronomical time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivezic, Z.; VanderPlas, J. T.

    2016-05-01

    We summarize the multiband periodogram, a general extension of the well-known Lomb-Scargle approach for detecting periodic signals in time- domain data developed by VanderPlas & Ivezic (2015). A Python implementation of this method is available on GitHub. The multiband periodogram significantly improves period finding for randomly sampled multiband light curves (e.g., Pan-STARRS, DES, and LSST), and can treat non-uniform sampling and heteroscedastic errors. The light curves in each band are modeled as arbitrary truncated Fourier series, with the period and phase shared across all bands. The key aspect is the use of Tikhonov regularization which drives most of the variability into the so-called base model common to all bands, while fits for individual bands describe residuals relative to the base model and typically require lower-order Fourier series. We use simulated light curves and randomly subsampled SDSS Stripe 82 data to demonstrate the superiority of this method compared to other methods from the literature, and find that this method will be able to efficiently determine the correct period in the majority of LSST's bright RR Lyrae stars with as little as six months of LSST data.

  11. Periodograms for Multiband Astronomical Time Series

    CERN Document Server

    VanderPlas, Jacob T

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces the multiband periodogram, a general extension of the well-known Lomb-Scargle approach for detecting periodic signals in time-domain data. In addition to advantages of the Lomb-Scargle method such as treatment of non-uniform sampling and heteroscedastic errors, the multiband periodogram significantly improves period finding for randomly sampled multiband light curves (e.g., Pan-STARRS, DES and LSST). The light curves in each band are modeled as arbitrary truncated Fourier series, with the period and phase shared across all bands. The key aspect is the use of Tikhonov regularization which drives most of the variability into the so-called base model common to all bands, while fits for individual bands describe residuals relative to the base model and typically require lower-order Fourier series. This decrease in the effective model complexity is the main reason for improved performance. We use simulated light curves and randomly subsampled SDSS Stripe 82 data to demonstrate the superiority...

  12. On Soft Biometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nixon, Mark; Correia, Paulo; Nasrollahi, Kamal;

    2015-01-01

    Innovation has formed much of the rich history in biometrics. The field of soft biometrics was originally aimed to augment the recognition process by fusion of metrics that were sufficient to discriminate populations rather than individuals. This was later refined to use measures that could be used...... to discriminate individuals, especially using descriptions that can be perceived using human vision and in surveillance imagery. A further branch of this new field concerns approaches to estimate soft biometrics, either using conventional biometrics approaches or just from images alone. These three...... strands combine to form what is now known as soft biometrics. We survey the achievements that have been made in recognition by and in estimation of these parameters, describing how these approaches can be used and where they might lead to. The approaches lead to a new type of recognition, and one similar...

  13. Load Forecasting Using Time Series Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahendran Shitan

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Load forecasting is a process of predicting the future load demands. It is important for power systemplanners and demand controllers in ensuring that there would be enough generation to cope withthe increasing demand. Accurate model for load forecasting can lead to a better budget planning,maintenance scheduling and fuel management. This paper presents an attempt to forecast the maximumdemand of electricity by finding an appropriate time series model. The methods considered in this studyinclude the Naïve method, Exponential smoothing, Seasonal Holt-Winters, ARMA, ARAR algorithm, andRegression with ARMA Errors. The performance of these different methods was evaluated by using theforecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE andMean Absolute Relative Percentage Error (MARPE. Based on these three criteria the pure autoregressivemodel with an order 2, or AR (2 under ARMA family emerged as the best model for forecasting electricitydemand.

  14. Correlation filtering in financial time series

    CERN Document Server

    Aste, T; Tumminello, M; Mantegna, R N

    2005-01-01

    We apply a method to filter relevant information from the correlation coefficient matrix by extracting a network of relevant interactions. This method succeeds to generate networks with the same hierarchical structure of the Minimum Spanning Tree but containing a larger amount of links resulting in a richer network topology allowing loops and cliques. In Tumminello et al. \\cite{TumminielloPNAS05}, we have shown that this method, applied to a financial portfolio of 100 stocks in the USA equity markets, is pretty efficient in filtering relevant information about the clustering of the system and its hierarchical structure both on the whole system and within each cluster. In particular, we have found that triangular loops and 4 element cliques have important and significant relations with the market structure and properties. Here we apply this filtering procedure to the analysis of correlation in two different kind of interest rate time series (16 Eurodollars and 34 US interest rates).

  15. Normalizing the causality between time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, X. San

    2015-08-01

    Recently, a rigorous yet concise formula was derived to evaluate information flow, and hence the causality in a quantitative sense, between time series. To assess the importance of a resulting causality, it needs to be normalized. The normalization is achieved through distinguishing a Lyapunov exponent-like, one-dimensional phase-space stretching rate and a noise-to-signal ratio from the rate of information flow in the balance of the marginal entropy evolution of the flow recipient. It is verified with autoregressive models and applied to a real financial analysis problem. An unusually strong one-way causality is identified from IBM (International Business Machines Corporation) to GE (General Electric Company) in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a giant for the mainframe computer market.

  16. Recent research results in iris biometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Karen; Baker, Sarah; Ring, Sarah; Bowyer, Kevin W.; Flynn, Patrick J.

    2009-05-01

    Many security applications require accurate identification of people, and research has shown that iris biometrics can be a powerful identification tool. However, in order for iris biometrics to be used on larger populations, error rates in the iris biometrics algorithms must be as low as possible. Furthermore, these algorithms need to be tested in a number of different environments and configurations. In order to facilitate such testing, we have collected more than 100,000 iris images for use in iris biometrics research. Using this data, we have developed a number of techniques for improving recognition rates. These techniques include fragile bit masking, signal-level fusion of iris images, and detecting local distortions in iris texture. Additionally, we have shown that large degrees of dilation and long lapses of time between image acquisitions negatively impact performance.

  17. Biometrics in forensic science: challenges, lessons and new technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Tistarelli, Massimo; Grosso, Enrico; Meuwly, Didier

    2014-01-01

    Biometrics has historically found its natural mate in Forensics. The first applications found in the literature and over cited so many times, are related to biometric measurements for the identification of multiple offenders from some of their biometric and anthropometric characteristics (tenprint cards) and individualization of offender from traces found on crime-scenes (e.g. fingermarks, earmarks, bitemarks, DNA). From sir Francis Galton, to the introduction of AFIS systems in the scientifi...

  18. BIOMETRIC CRYPTOGRAPHY AND NETWORK AUTHENTICATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tonimir Kišasondi

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we will present some schemes for strengthening network authentification over insecure channels with biometric concepts or how to securely transfer or use biometric characteristics as cryptographic keys. We will show why some current authentification schemes are insufficient and we will present our concepts of biometric hashes and authentification that rely on unimodal and multimodal biometrics. Our concept can be applied on any biometric authentification scheme and is universal for all systems.

  19. Timing calibration and spectral cleaning of LOFAR time series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corstanje, A.; Buitink, S.; Enriquez, J. E.; Falcke, H.; Hörandel, J. R.; Krause, M.; Nelles, A.; Rachen, J. P.; Schellart, P.; Scholten, O.; ter Veen, S.; Thoudam, S.; Trinh, T. N. G.

    2016-05-01

    We describe a method for spectral cleaning and timing calibration of short time series data of the voltage in individual radio interferometer receivers. It makes use of phase differences in fast Fourier transform (FFT) spectra across antenna pairs. For strong, localized terrestrial sources these are stable over time, while being approximately uniform-random for a sum over many sources or for noise. Using only milliseconds-long datasets, the method finds the strongest interfering transmitters, a first-order solution for relative timing calibrations, and faulty data channels. No knowledge of gain response or quiescent noise levels of the receivers is required. With relatively small data volumes, this approach is suitable for use in an online system monitoring setup for interferometric arrays. We have applied the method to our cosmic-ray data collection, a collection of measurements of short pulses from extensive air showers, recorded by the LOFAR radio telescope. Per air shower, we have collected 2 ms of raw time series data for each receiver. The spectral cleaning has a calculated optimal sensitivity corresponding to a power signal-to-noise ratio of 0.08 (or -11 dB) in a spectral window of 25 kHz, for 2 ms of data in 48 antennas. This is well sufficient for our application. Timing calibration across individual antenna pairs has been performed at 0.4 ns precision; for calibration of signal clocks across stations of 48 antennas the precision is 0.1 ns. Monitoring differences in timing calibration per antenna pair over the course of the period 2011 to 2015 shows a precision of 0.08 ns, which is useful for monitoring and correcting drifts in signal path synchronizations. A cross-check method for timing calibration is presented, using a pulse transmitter carried by a drone flying over the array. Timing precision is similar, 0.3 ns, but is limited by transmitter position measurements, while requiring dedicated flights.

  20. Biometrics and international migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redpath, Jillyanne

    2007-01-01

    This paper will focus on the impact of the rapid expansion in the use of biometric systems in migration management on the rights of individuals; it seeks to highlight legal issues for consideration in implementing such systems, taking as the starting point that the security interests of the state and the rights of the individual are not, and should not be, mutually exclusive. The first part of this paper briefly describes the type of biometric applications available, how biometric systems function, and those used in migration management. The second part examines the potential offered by biometrics for greater security in migration management, and focuses on developments in the use of biometrics as a result of September 11. The third part discusses the impact of the use of biometrics in the management of migration on the individual's right to privacy and ability to move freely and lawfully. The paper highlights the increasing need for domestic and international frameworks to govern the use of biometric applications in the migration/security context, and proposes a number of issues that such frameworks could address. PMID:17536151

  1. Time series models with a common stochastic variance for analysing economic time series

    OpenAIRE

    Koopman, S.J.; C.S. Bos

    2002-01-01

    This discussion paper led to an article in Statistica Neerlandica (2003). Vol. 57, issue 4, pages 439-469. The linear Gaussian state space model for which the common variance istreated as a stochastic time-varying variable is considered for themodelling of economic time series. The focus of this paper is on thesimultaneous estimation of parameters related to the stochasticprocesses of the mean part and the variance part of the model. Theestimation method is based on maximum likelihood and it ...

  2. Timing calibration and spectral cleaning of LOFAR time series data

    CERN Document Server

    Corstanje, A; Enriquez, J E; Falcke, H; Hörandel, J R; Krause, M; Nelles, A; Rachen, J P; Schellart, P; Scholten, O; ter Veen, S; Thoudam, S; Trinh, T N G

    2016-01-01

    We describe a method for spectral cleaning and timing calibration of short voltage time series data from individual radio interferometer receivers. It makes use of the phase differences in Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) spectra across antenna pairs. For strong, localized terrestrial sources these are stable over time, while being approximately uniform-random for a sum over many sources or for noise. Using only milliseconds-long datasets, the method finds the strongest interfering transmitters, a first-order solution for relative timing calibrations, and faulty data channels. No knowledge of gain response or quiescent noise levels of the receivers is required. With relatively small data volumes, this approach is suitable for use in an online system monitoring setup for interferometric arrays. We have applied the method to our cosmic-ray data collection, a collection of measurements of short pulses from extensive air showers, recorded by the LOFAR radio telescope. Per air shower, we have collected 2 ms of raw tim...

  3. Time series modeling for syndromic surveillance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mandl Kenneth D

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Emergency department (ED based syndromic surveillance systems identify abnormally high visit rates that may be an early signal of a bioterrorist attack. For example, an anthrax outbreak might first be detectable as an unusual increase in the number of patients reporting to the ED with respiratory symptoms. Reliably identifying these abnormal visit patterns requires a good understanding of the normal patterns of healthcare usage. Unfortunately, systematic methods for determining the expected number of (ED visits on a particular day have not yet been well established. We present here a generalized methodology for developing models of expected ED visit rates. Methods Using time-series methods, we developed robust models of ED utilization for the purpose of defining expected visit rates. The models were based on nearly a decade of historical data at a major metropolitan academic, tertiary care pediatric emergency department. The historical data were fit using trimmed-mean seasonal models, and additional models were fit with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA residuals to account for recent trends in the data. The detection capabilities of the model were tested with simulated outbreaks. Results Models were built both for overall visits and for respiratory-related visits, classified according to the chief complaint recorded at the beginning of each visit. The mean absolute percentage error of the ARIMA models was 9.37% for overall visits and 27.54% for respiratory visits. A simple detection system based on the ARIMA model of overall visits was able to detect 7-day-long simulated outbreaks of 30 visits per day with 100% sensitivity and 97% specificity. Sensitivity decreased with outbreak size, dropping to 94% for outbreaks of 20 visits per day, and 57% for 10 visits per day, all while maintaining a 97% benchmark specificity. Conclusions Time series methods applied to historical ED utilization data are an important tool

  4. Simplified Multimodal Biometric Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abhijit Shete

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Multibiometric systems are expected to be more reliable than unimodal biometric systems for personal identification due to the presence of multiple, fairly independent pieces of evidence e.g. Unique Identification Project "Aadhaar" of Government of India. In this paper, we present a novel wavelet based technique to perform fusion at the feature level and score level by considering two biometric modalities, face and fingerprint. The results indicate that the proposed technique can lead to substantial improvement in multimodal matching performance. The proposed technique is simple because of no preprocessing of raw biometric traits as well as no feature and score normalization.

  5. Peat conditions mapping using MODIS time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poggio, Laura; Gimona, Alessandro; Bruneau, Patricia; Johnson, Sally; McBride, Andrew; Artz, Rebekka

    2016-04-01

    Large areas of Scotland are covered in peatlands, providing an important sink of carbon in their near natural state but act as a potential source of gaseous and dissolved carbon emission if not in good conditions. Data on the condition of most peatlands in Scotland are, however, scarce and largely confined to sites under nature protection designations, often biased towards sites in better condition. The best information available at present is derived from labour intensive field-based monitoring of relatively few designated sites (Common Standard Monitoring Dataset). In order to provide a national dataset of peat conditions, the available point information from the CSM data was modelled with morphological features and information derived from MODIS sensor. In particular we used time series of indices describing vegetation greenness (Enhanced Vegetation Index), water availability (Normalised Water Difference index), Land Surface Temperature and vegetation productivity (Gross Primary productivity). A scorpan-kriging approach was used, in particular using Generalised Additive Models for the description of the trend. The model provided the probability of a site to be in favourable conditions and the uncertainty of the predictions was taken into account. The internal validation (leave-one-out) provided a mis-classification error of around 0.25. The derived dataset was then used, among others, in the decision making process for the selection of sites for restoration.

  6. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Temperature Time Series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global temperature time series provides time series charts using station based observations of daily temperature. These charts provide information about the...

  7. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Precipitation Time Series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global precipitation time series provides time series charts showing observations of daily precipitation as well as accumulated precipitation compared to normal...

  8. SURVEY ON MULTISPECTRAL BIOMETRIC IMAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MAHESWARI.M, ANCY.S, DR. G.R.SURESH

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Electromagnetic theory says that hertzian waves provide stronger penetrability into objects. Multi-spectrum illuminator can penetrate tissues at different depths and form images of both surface skin textures and hypodemia. This multi-spectrum sensor provides greater acquisition time and better quality images than any other unimodal sensors. There are many biometric features available like hand, finger, iris, palm etc which are used for various authentication and identification purposes. These features can be captured using various technologies like optical, ultra sound, multispectral and many more. Among all multispectral images have proven for efficient results in both recognition and identification systems. In this paper we will make a study of various multispectral biometric modalities and their acquisition techniques.

  9. Some results of analysis of source position time series

    CERN Document Server

    Malkin, Zinovy

    2015-01-01

    Source position time series produced by International VLBI Service for Geodesy and astrometry (IVS) Analysis Centers were analyzed. These series was computed using different software and analysis strategy. Comparison of this series showed that they have considerably different scatter and systematic behavior. Based on the inspection of all the series, new sources were identified as sources with irregular (non-random) position variations. Two statistics used to estimate the noise level in the time series, namely RMS and ADEV were compared.

  10. Deflation-based separation of uncorrelated stationary time series

    OpenAIRE

    Miettinen, Jari; Nordhausen, Klaus; Oja, Hannu; Taskinen, Sara

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we assume that the observed pp time series are linear combinations of pp latent uncorrelated weakly stationary time series. The problem is then to find an estimate for an unmixing matrix that transforms the observed time series back to uncorrelated time series. The so called SOBI (Second Order Blind Identification) estimate aims at a joint diagonalization of the covariance matrix and several autocovariance matrices with varying lags. In this paper, we propose a novel procedure t...

  11. An introduction to state space time series analysis.

    OpenAIRE

    Commandeur, J.J.F. & Koopman, S.J.

    2007-01-01

    Providing a practical introduction to state space methods as applied to unobserved components time series models, also known as structural time series models, this book introduces time series analysis using state space methodology to readers who are neither familiar with time series analysis, nor with state space methods. The only background required in order to understand the material presented in the book is a basic knowledge of classical linear regression models, of which a brief review is...

  12. Biometrics and Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govindaraju, Venu

    The science of Biometrics is concerned with recognizing people based on their physiological or behavioral characteristics. It has emerged as a vibrant field of research in today's security conscious society. In this talk we will introduce the important research challenges in Biometrics and specifically address the following topics: i) unobtrusive people tracking using a novel evolutionary recognition paradigm, ii) efficient indexing and searching of large fingerprint databases, iii) cancelability of templates where the task is to ensure that enrolled biometric templates can be revoked and new templates issued, and iv) fusion of fingerprints with other biometric modalities such as face where we will explore optimal trainable functions that operate on the scores returned by individual matchers.

  13. Biometrics and Kansei engineering

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    Includes a section on touchscreen devices Proposes a new mathematical model on Iris Recognition Introduces a new technological system dealing with human Kansei Covers the latest achievements in biometric application features

  14. Seasonal Time Series Analysis Based on Genetic Algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Pattern discovery from the seasonal time-series is of importance. Traditionally, most of the algorithms of pattern discovery in time series are similar. A novel mode of time series is proposed which integrates the Genetic Algorithm (GA) for the actual problem. The experiments on the electric power yield sequence models show that this algorithm is practicable and effective.

  15. On Soft Biometrics

    OpenAIRE

    Nixon, Mark; Correia, Paulo; Nasrollahi, Kamal; Moeslund, Thomas B.; Hadid, Abdenour; Tistarelli, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    Innovation has formed much of the rich history in biometrics. The field of soft biometrics was originally aimed to augment the recognition process by fusion of metrics that were sufficient to discriminate populations rather than individuals. This was later refined to use measures that could be used to discriminate individuals, especially using descriptions that can be perceived using human vision and in surveillance imagery. A further branch of this new field concerns approaches to estimate s...

  16. Biometric Authentication: A Review

    OpenAIRE

    Debnath Bhattacharyya; Rahul Ranjan; Farkhod Alisherov; Minkyu Choi

    2009-01-01

    Advances in the field of Information Technology also make Information Security an inseparable part of it. In order to deal with security, Authentication plays an important role. This paper presents a review on the biometric authentication techniques and some future possibilities in this field. In biometrics, a human being needs to be identified based on some characteristic physiological parameters. A wide variety of systems require reliable personal recognition schemes to either confirm or de...

  17. Notes on time serie analysis, ARIMA models and signal extraction

    OpenAIRE

    Kaiser, Regina; Maravall, Agustín

    2000-01-01

    Present practice in applied time series work, mostly at economic policy or data producing agencies, relies heavily on using moving average filters to estimate unobserved components (or signals) in time series, such as the seasonally adjusted series, the trend, or the cycle. The purpose of the present paper is to provide an informal introduction to the time series analysis tools and concepts required by the user or analyst to understand the basic methodology behind the application of filters. ...

  18. Biometric Technologies and Verification Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Vacca, John R

    2007-01-01

    Biometric Technologies and Verification Systems is organized into nine parts composed of 30 chapters, including an extensive glossary of biometric terms and acronyms. It discusses the current state-of-the-art in biometric verification/authentication, identification and system design principles. It also provides a step-by-step discussion of how biometrics works; how biometric data in human beings can be collected and analyzed in a number of ways; how biometrics are currently being used as a method of personal identification in which people are recognized by their own unique corporal or behavior

  19. Biometrics Theory, Methods, and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Boulgouris, N V; Micheli-Tzanakou, Evangelia

    2009-01-01

    An in-depth examination of the cutting edge of biometrics. This book fills a gap in the literature by detailing the recent advances and emerging theories, methods, and applications of biometric systems in a variety of infrastructures. Edited by a panel of experts, it provides comprehensive coverage of:. Multilinear discriminant analysis for biometric signal recognition;. Biometric identity authentication techniques based on neural networks;. Multimodal biometrics and design of classifiers for biometric fusion;. Feature selection and facial aging modeling for face recognition;. Geometrical and

  20. Generalized Framework for Similarity Measure of Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongsheng Yin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, there is no definitive and uniform description for the similarity of time series, which results in difficulties for relevant research on this topic. In this paper, we propose a generalized framework to measure the similarity of time series. In this generalized framework, whether the time series is univariable or multivariable, and linear transformed or nonlinear transformed, the similarity of time series is uniformly defined using norms of vectors or matrices. The definitions of the similarity of time series in the original space and the transformed space are proved to be equivalent. Furthermore, we also extend the theory on similarity of univariable time series to multivariable time series. We present some experimental results on published time series datasets tested with the proposed similarity measure function of time series. Through the proofs and experiments, it can be claimed that the similarity measure functions of linear multivariable time series based on the norm distance of covariance matrix and nonlinear multivariable time series based on kernel function are reasonable and practical.

  1. Outlier Detection in Structural Time Series Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marczak, Martyna; Proietti, Tommaso

    Structural change affects the estimation of economic signals, like the underlying growth rate or the seasonally adjusted series. An important issue, which has attracted a great deal of attention also in the seasonal adjustment literature, is its detection by an expert procedure. The general–to–sp...

  2. Time and ensemble averaging in time series analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Latka, Miroslaw; Jernajczyk, Wojciech; West, Bruce J

    2010-01-01

    In many applications expectation values are calculated by partitioning a single experimental time series into an ensemble of data segments of equal length. Such single trajectory ensemble (STE) is a counterpart to a multiple trajectory ensemble (MTE) used whenever independent measurements or realizations of a stochastic process are available. The equivalence of STE and MTE for stationary systems was postulated by Wang and Uhlenbeck in their classic paper on Brownian motion (Rev. Mod. Phys. 17, 323 (1945)) but surprisingly has not yet been proved. Using the stationary and ergodic paradigm of statistical physics -- the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) Langevin equation, we revisit Wang and Uhlenbeck's postulate. In particular, we find that the variance of the solution of this equation is different for these two ensembles. While the variance calculated using the MTE quantifies the spreading of independent trajectories originating from the same initial point, the variance for STE measures the spreading of two correlated r...

  3. Hidden Markov Models for Time Series An Introduction Using R

    CERN Document Server

    Zucchini, Walter

    2009-01-01

    Illustrates the flexibility of HMMs as general-purpose models for time series data. This work presents an overview of HMMs for analyzing time series data, from continuous-valued, circular, and multivariate series to binary data, bounded and unbounded counts and categorical observations.

  4. Multi-Biometric Systems: A State of the Art Survey and Research Directions

    OpenAIRE

    Ramadan Gad; Nawal El-Fishawy; AYMAN EL-SAYED; M. Zorkany

    2015-01-01

    Multi-biometrics is an exciting and interesting research topic. It is used to recognizing individuals for security purposes; to increase security levels. The recent research trends toward next biometrics generation in real-time applications. Also, integration of biometrics solves some of unimodal system limitations. However, design and evaluation of such systems raises many issues and trade-offs. A state of the art survey of multi-biometrics benefits, limitations, integration strategies, and ...

  5. Biometric applications related to human beings: there is life beyond security

    OpenAIRE

    Faúndez Zanuy, Marcos; Hussain, Amir; Mekyska, Jiri; Sesa Nogueras, Enric; Monte Moreno, Enrique; Esposito, Anna; Chetouani, Mohamed; Garre Olmo, Josep; Abel, Andrew; Smékal, Zdenek; Lopez-De-Ipina, Karmele

    2013-01-01

    The use of biometrics has been successfully applied to security applications for some time. However, the extension of other potential applications with the use of biometric information is a very recent development. This paper summarizes the field of biometrics and investigates the potential of utilizing biometrics beyond the presently limited field of security applications. There are some synergies that can be established within security-related applications. These can...

  6. Approximate Entropies for Stochastic Time Series and EKG Time Series of Patients with Epilepsy and Pseudoseizures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyhnalek, Brian; Zurcher, Ulrich; O'Dwyer, Rebecca; Kaufman, Miron

    2009-10-01

    A wide range of heart rate irregularities have been reported in small studies of patients with temporal lobe epilepsy [TLE]. We hypothesize that patients with TLE display cardiac dysautonomia in either a subclinical or clinical manner. In a small study, we have retrospectively identified (2003-8) two groups of patients from the epilepsy monitoring unit [EMU] at the Cleveland Clinic. No patients were diagnosed with cardiovascular morbidities. The control group consisted of patients with confirmed pseudoseizures and the experimental group had confirmed right temporal lobe epilepsy through a seizure free outcome after temporal lobectomy. We quantified the heart rate variability using the approximate entropy [ApEn]. We found similar values of the ApEn in all three states of consciousness (awake, sleep, and proceeding seizure onset). In the TLE group, there is some evidence for greater variability in the awake than in either the sleep or proceeding seizure onset. Here we present results for mathematically-generated time series: the heart rate fluctuations ξ follow the γ statistics i.e., p(ξ)=γ-1(k) ξ^k exp(-ξ). This probability function has well-known properties and its Shannon entropy can be expressed in terms of the γ-function. The parameter k allows us to generate a family of heart rate time series with different statistics. The ApEn calculated for the generated time series for different values of k mimic the properties found for the TLE and pseudoseizure group. Our results suggest that the ApEn is an effective tool to probe differences in statistics of heart rate fluctuations.

  7. Biometrics: libraries have begun to see the value of biometrics

    OpenAIRE

    Panneerselvam, Selvi, M. G.

    2007-01-01

    It explains the Biometric Technologies which are becoming the foundation of an extensive array of highly secure identification and personal verification solution. Biometric devices with special reference to finger print recognition is dealt in detail. The benefits of Biometrics in Libraries, its employees and members are highlighted.

  8. Multiscale entropy to distinguish physiologic and synthetic RR time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, M; Goldberger, A L; Peng, C-K

    2002-01-01

    We address the challenge of distinguishing physiologic interbeat interval time series from those generated by synthetic algorithms via a newly developed multiscale entropy method. Traditional measures of time series complexity only quantify the degree of regularity on a single time scale. However, many physiologic variables, such as heart rate, fluctuate in a very complex manner and present correlations over multiple time scales. We have proposed a new method to calculate multiscale entropy from complex signals. In order to distinguish between physiologic and synthetic time series, we first applied the method to a learning set of RR time series derived from healthy subjects. We empirically established selected criteria characterizing the entropy dependence on scale factor for these datasets. We then applied this algorithm to the CinC 2002 test datasets. Using only the multiscale entropy method, we correctly classified 48 of 50 (96%) time series. In combination with Fourier spectral analysis, we correctly classified all time series. PMID:14686448

  9. Efficient Algorithms for Segmentation of Item-Set Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chundi, Parvathi; Rosenkrantz, Daniel J.

    We propose a special type of time series, which we call an item-set time series, to facilitate the temporal analysis of software version histories, email logs, stock market data, etc. In an item-set time series, each observed data value is a set of discrete items. We formalize the concept of an item-set time series and present efficient algorithms for segmenting a given item-set time series. Segmentation of a time series partitions the time series into a sequence of segments where each segment is constructed by combining consecutive time points of the time series. Each segment is associated with an item set that is computed from the item sets of the time points in that segment, using a function which we call a measure function. We then define a concept called the segment difference, which measures the difference between the item set of a segment and the item sets of the time points in that segment. The segment difference values are required to construct an optimal segmentation of the time series. We describe novel and efficient algorithms to compute segment difference values for each of the measure functions described in the paper. We outline a dynamic programming based scheme to construct an optimal segmentation of the given item-set time series. We use the item-set time series segmentation techniques to analyze the temporal content of three different data sets—Enron email, stock market data, and a synthetic data set. The experimental results show that an optimal segmentation of item-set time series data captures much more temporal content than a segmentation constructed based on the number of time points in each segment, without examining the item set data at the time points, and can be used to analyze different types of temporal data.

  10. Embedded System for Biometric Identification

    OpenAIRE

    Rosli, Ahmad Nasir Che

    2010-01-01

    This chapter describes the design and implementation of an Embedded System for Biometric Identification from hardware and software perspectives. The first part of the chapter describes the idea of biometric identification. This includes the definition of

  11. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS USING A UNIQUE MODEL OF TRANSFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Klepac

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available REFII1 model is an authorial mathematical model for time series data mining. The main purpose of that model is to automate time series analysis, through a unique transformation model of time series. An advantage of this approach of time series analysis is the linkage of different methods for time series analysis, linking traditional data mining tools in time series, and constructing new algorithms for analyzing time series. It is worth mentioning that REFII model is not a closed system, which means that we have a finite set of methods. At first, this is a model for transformation of values of time series, which prepares data used by different sets of methods based on the same model of transformation in a domain of problem space. REFII model gives a new approach in time series analysis based on a unique model of transformation, which is a base for all kind of time series analysis. The advantage of REFII model is its possible application in many different areas such as finance, medicine, voice recognition, face recognition and text mining.

  12. Multifractal Analysis of Aging and Complexity in Heartbeat Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz D., Alejandro; Almanza V., Victor H.; del Río C., José L.

    2004-09-01

    Recently multifractal analysis has been used intensively in the analysis of physiological time series. In this work we apply the multifractal analysis to the study of heartbeat time series from healthy young subjects and other series obtained from old healthy subjects. We show that this multifractal formalism could be a useful tool to discriminate these two kinds of series. We used the algorithm proposed by Chhabra and Jensen that provides a highly accurate, practical and efficient method for the direct computation of the singularity spectrum. Aging causes loss of multifractality in the heartbeat time series, it means that heartbeat time series of elderly persons are less complex than the time series of young persons. This analysis reveals a new level of complexity characterized by the wide range of necessary exponents to characterize the dynamics of young people.

  13. Ruin Probability in Linear Time Series Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Lihong

    2005-01-01

    This paper analyzes a continuous time risk model with a linear model used to model the claim process. The time is discretized stochastically using the times when claims occur, using Doob's stopping time theorem and martingale inequalities to obtain expressions for the ruin probability as well as both exponential and non-exponential upper bounds for the ruin probability for an infinite time horizon. Numerical results are included to illustrate the accuracy of the non-exponential bound.

  14. An Overview of Multimodal Biometrics

    OpenAIRE

    P. S. Sanjekar; J. B. Patil

    2013-01-01

    Unimodal biometrics has several problems such as noisy data, intra class variation, inter class similarities, non universality and spoofing which cause this system less accurate and secure. To overcome these problems and to increase level of security multimodal biometrics is used. Multimodal biometrics makes the use of multiple source of information for personal authentication. Multimodal biometrics has becoming very popular now days since it is at the frontier of...

  15. PIN-based cancelable biometrics

    OpenAIRE

    Lacharme, Patrick; Plateaux, Aude

    2011-01-01

    Biometric authentication systems are more and more deployed in replacement of traditional authentication systems. Security of such systems is required in real- world applications and constitutes a major challenge in biometric field. An ef- ficient approach of this issue is realized by cancelable biometrics. However, the security of such biometric systems is often overestimated or based on restrictive as- sumptions. This paper presents and investigates a PIN-based variant for cancelable biometri...

  16. BIOMETRICS BASED USER AUTHENTICATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanuj Tiwari

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Biometrics is automated methods of recognizing a person based on a physiological or behavioral characteristic. Biometrics technologies are base for a plethora of highly secure identification and personal verification solutions. It is measurement of biological characteristics – either physiological or behavioral – that verify the claimed identity of an individual. Physiological biometrics include fingerprints, iris recognition. voice verification, retina recognition, palm vein patterns, finger vein patterns, hand geometry and DNA But there arises a need for more robust systems in order to tackle the increasing incidents of security breaches and frauds. So there is always a need for fool proof technology that can provide security and safety to individuals and the transactions that the individuals make. Biometrics is increasingly used by organizations to verify identities, but coupled with quantum cryptography it offers a new range of security benefits with quantum cryptography where we form a key when we need it and then destroy it. In this paper, we give a brief overview of the field of biometrics and summarize some of its advantages, disadvantages, strengths, limitations, and related privacy concerns.

  17. Visibility graph network analysis of gold price time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Yu

    2013-08-01

    Mapping time series into a visibility graph network, the characteristics of the gold price time series and return temporal series, and the mechanism underlying the gold price fluctuation have been explored from the perspective of complex network theory. The network degree distribution characters, which change from power law to exponent law when the series was shuffled from original sequence, and the average path length characters, which change from L∼lnN into lnL∼lnN as the sequence was shuffled, demonstrate that price series and return series are both long-rang dependent fractal series. The relations of Hurst exponent to the power-law exponent of degree distribution demonstrate that the logarithmic price series is a fractal Brownian series and the logarithmic return series is a fractal Gaussian series. Power-law exponents of degree distribution in a time window changing with window moving demonstrates that a logarithmic gold price series is a multifractal series. The Power-law average clustering coefficient demonstrates that the gold price visibility graph is a hierarchy network. The hierarchy character, in light of the correspondence of graph to price fluctuation, means that gold price fluctuation is a hierarchy structure, which appears to be in agreement with Elliot’s experiential Wave Theory on stock price fluctuation, and the local-rule growth theory of a hierarchy network means that the hierarchy structure of gold price fluctuation originates from persistent, short term factors, such as short term speculation.

  18. On correlations and fractal characteristics of time series

    CERN Document Server

    Vitanov, N K; Yankulova, E D; Vitanov, Nikolay K.; Sakai, kenschi; Yankulova, Elka D.

    2005-01-01

    Correlation analysis is convenient and frequently used tool for investigation of time series from complex systems. Recently new methods such as the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) and the wavelet transform modulus maximum method (WTMM) have been developed. By means of these methods (i) we can investigate long-range correlations in time series and (ii) we can calculate fractal spectra of these time series. But opposite to the classical tool for correlation analysis - the autocorrelation function, the newly developed tools are not applicable to all kinds of time series. The unappropriate application of MFDFA or WTMM leads to wrong results and conclusions. In this article we discuss the opportunities and risks connected to the application of the MFDFA method to time series from a random number generator and to experimentally measured time series (i) for accelerations of an agricultural tractor and (ii) for the heartbeat activity of {\\sl Drosophila melanogaster}. Our main goal is to emphasize ...

  19. Anatomy of Biometric Passports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominik Malčík

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Travelling is becoming available for more and more people. Millions of people are on a way every day. That is why a better control over global human transfer and a more reliable identity check is desired. A recent trend in a field of personal identification documents is to use RFID (Radio Frequency Identification technology and biometrics, especially (but not only in passports. This paper provides an insight into the electronic passports (also called e-passport or ePassport implementation chosen in the Czech Republic. Such a summary is needed for further studies of biometric passports implementation security and biometric passports analysis. A separate description of the Czech solution is a prerequisite for a planned analysis, because of the uniqueness of each implementation. (Each country can choose the implementation details within a range specified by the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organisation; moreover, specific security mechanisms are optional and can be omitted.

  20. Biometric citizenship and alienage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stenum, Helle

    positioned and managed technologically as risks through surveillance and storage of data, whereas citizens are managed as holders of access to privileges. The technique however of both circuits is using bodily coded information through fingerprints and emphasizes the general tendency of ‘securitization of......Biometric identifiers (finger prints, face scans, iris scans etc.) have increasingly become a key element in technology of EU border and migration management. SIS II, EURODAC and VIS are centralized systems that contain fingerprints of different groups of non-EU citizen, and the biometric...... identifier is stored in order to link a specific body to specific information related to status (asylum seeker, entry banned, convicted etc.). Finger prints are also integrated in passports in the EU, but this biometric information is restricted to establish only the link between the body and the passport...

  1. Anatomy of biometric passports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malčík, Dominik; Drahanský, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Travelling is becoming available for more and more people. Millions of people are on a way every day. That is why a better control over global human transfer and a more reliable identity check is desired. A recent trend in a field of personal identification documents is to use RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) technology and biometrics, especially (but not only) in passports. This paper provides an insight into the electronic passports (also called e-passport or ePassport) implementation chosen in the Czech Republic. Such a summary is needed for further studies of biometric passports implementation security and biometric passports analysis. A separate description of the Czech solution is a prerequisite for a planned analysis, because of the uniqueness of each implementation. (Each country can choose the implementation details within a range specified by the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organisation); moreover, specific security mechanisms are optional and can be omitted). PMID:22969272

  2. Biometrics Security using Steganography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chander Kant

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available A biometric system is at risk to a variety of attacks. These attacks are intended to either avoid thesecurity afforded by the system or to put off the normal functioning of the system. Various riskshave been discovered while using biometric system. Proper use of cryptography greatly reducesthe risks in biometric systems as the hackers have to find both secret key and template. It isnotified that still fraudrant goes on to some extent. Here in this paper a new idea is presented tomake system more secure by use of steganography. Here the secret key (which is in the form ofpixel intensities will be merged in the picture itself while encoding, and at decoding end only theauthentic user will be allowed to decode.

  3. Non-parametric causal inference for bivariate time series

    CERN Document Server

    McCracken, James M

    2015-01-01

    We introduce new quantities for exploratory causal inference between bivariate time series. The quantities, called penchants and leanings, are computationally straightforward to apply, follow directly from assumptions of probabilistic causality, do not depend on any assumed models for the time series generating process, and do not rely on any embedding procedures; these features may provide a clearer interpretation of the results than those from existing time series causality tools. The penchant and leaning are computed based on a structured method for computing probabilities.

  4. Intrusion Detection Forecasting Using Time Series for Improving Cyber Defence

    OpenAIRE

    Abdullah, Azween Bin; Pillai, Thulasyammal Ramiah; Cai, Long Zheng

    2015-01-01

    The strength of time series modeling is generally not used in almost all current intrusion detection and prevention systems. By having time series models, system administrators will be able to better plan resource allocation and system readiness to defend against malicious activities. In this paper, we address the knowledge gap by investigating the possible inclusion of a statistical based time series modeling that can be seamlessly integrated into existing cyber defense system. Cyber-attack ...

  5. Power-weighted densities for time series data

    OpenAIRE

    McCarthy, Daniel M.; Jensen, Shane T.

    2016-01-01

    While time series prediction is an important, actively studied problem, the predictive accuracy of time series models is complicated by non-stationarity. We develop a fast and effective approach to allow for non-stationarity in the parameters of a chosen time series model. In our power-weighted density (PWD) approach, observations in the distant past are down-weighted in the likelihood function relative to more recent observations, while still giving the practitioner control over the choice o...

  6. Modular biometric system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Charles; Viazanko, Michael; O'Looney, Jimmy; Szu, Harold

    2009-04-01

    Modularity Biometric System (MBS) is an approach to support AiTR of the cooperated and/or non-cooperated standoff biometric in an area persistent surveillance. Advanced active and passive EOIR and RF sensor suite is not considered here. Neither will we consider the ROC, PD vs. FAR, versus the standoff POT in this paper. Our goal is to catch the "most wanted (MW)" two dozens, separately furthermore ad hoc woman MW class from man MW class, given their archrivals sparse front face data basis, by means of various new instantaneous input called probing faces. We present an advanced algorithm: mini-Max classifier, a sparse sample realization of Cramer-Rao Fisher bound of the Maximum Likelihood classifier that minimize the dispersions among the same woman classes and maximize the separation among different man-woman classes, based on the simple feature space of MIT Petland eigen-faces. The original aspect consists of a modular structured design approach at the system-level with multi-level architectures, multiple computing paradigms, and adaptable/evolvable techniques to allow for achieving a scalable structure in terms of biometric algorithms, identification quality, sensors, database complexity, database integration, and component heterogenity. MBS consist of a number of biometric technologies including fingerprints, vein maps, voice and face recognitions with innovative DSP algorithm, and their hardware implementations such as using Field Programmable Gate arrays (FPGAs). Biometric technologies and the composed modularity biometric system are significant for governmental agencies, enterprises, banks and all other organizations to protect people or control access to critical resources.

  7. Efficient use of correlation entropy for analysing time series data

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    K P Harikrishnan; R Misra; G Ambika

    2009-02-01

    The correlation dimension 2 and correlation entropy 2 are both important quantifiers in nonlinear time series analysis. However, use of 2 has been more common compared to 2 as a discriminating measure. One reason for this is that 2 is a static measure and can be easily evaluated from a time series. However, in many cases, especially those involving coloured noise, 2 is regarded as a more useful measure. Here we present an efficient algorithmic scheme to compute 2 directly from a time series data and show that 2 can be used as a more effective measure compared to 2 for analysing practical time series involving coloured noise.

  8. Interpretable Early Classification of Multivariate Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghalwash, Mohamed F.

    2013-01-01

    Recent advances in technology have led to an explosion in data collection over time rather than in a single snapshot. For example, microarray technology allows us to measure gene expression levels in different conditions over time. Such temporal data grants the opportunity for data miners to develop algorithms to address domain-related problems,…

  9. Time Series Properties of Expectation Biases

    OpenAIRE

    Kinari, Yusuke

    2011-01-01

    This study exammes time senes properties of expectation biases usmg a highfrequency survey on stock price forecasts, which required participants to forecast the Nikkei 225 over three forecasting horizons: one day, one week, and one month ahead. Constructing proxies for overconfidence and optimism as the expectation biases, this study shows that overconfidence is likely to remain stable over time while optimism is not. Moreover, a relationship exists between optimism and stock price movement, ...

  10. Studies on time series applications in environmental sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Bărbulescu, Alina

    2016-01-01

    Time series analysis and modelling represent a large study field, implying the approach from the perspective of the time and frequency, with applications in different domains. Modelling hydro-meteorological time series is difficult due to the characteristics of these series, as long range dependence, spatial dependence, the correlation with other series. Continuous spatial data plays an important role in planning, risk assessment and decision making in environmental management. In this context, in this book we present various statistical tests and modelling techniques used for time series analysis, as well as applications to hydro-meteorological series from Dobrogea, a region situated in the south-eastern part of Romania, less studied till now. Part of the results are accompanied by their R code. .

  11. Volatility modeling of rainfall time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusof, Fadhilah; Kane, Ibrahim Lawal

    2013-07-01

    Networks of rain gauges can provide a better insight into the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall, but they tend to be too widely spaced for accurate estimates. A way to estimate the spatial variability of rainfall between gauge points is to interpolate between them. This paper evaluates the spatial autocorrelation of rainfall data in some locations in Peninsular Malaysia using geostatistical technique. The results give an insight on the spatial variability of rainfall in the area, as such, two rain gauges were selected for an in-depth study of the temporal dependence of the rainfall data-generating process. It could be shown that rainfall data are affected by nonlinear characteristics of the variance often referred to as variance clustering or volatility, where large changes tend to follow large changes and small changes tend to follow small changes. The autocorrelation structure of the residuals and the squared residuals derived from autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were inspected, the residuals are uncorrelated but the squared residuals show autocorrelation, and the Ljung-Box test confirmed the results. A test based on the Lagrange multiplier principle was applied to the squared residuals from the ARIMA models. The results of this auxiliary test show a clear evidence to reject the null hypothesis of no autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) effect. Hence, it indicates that generalized ARCH (GARCH) modeling is necessary. An ARIMA error model is proposed to capture the mean behavior and a GARCH model for modeling heteroskedasticity (variance behavior) of the residuals from the ARIMA model. Therefore, the composite ARIMA-GARCH model captures the dynamics of daily rainfall in the study area. On the other hand, seasonal ARIMA model became a suitable model for the monthly average rainfall series of the same locations treated.

  12. Recovery of the Time-Evolution Equation of Time-Delay Systems from Time Series

    CERN Document Server

    Bünner, M J; Kittel, A; Parisi, J; Meyer, Th.

    1997-01-01

    We present a method for time series analysis of both, scalar and nonscalar time-delay systems. If the dynamics of the system investigated is governed by a time-delay induced instability, the method allows to determine the delay time. In a second step, the time-delay differential equation can be recovered from the time series. The method is a generalization of our recently proposed method suitable for time series analysis of {\\it scalar} time-delay systems. The dynamics is not required to be settled on its attractor, which also makes transient motion accessible to the analysis. If the motion actually takes place on a chaotic attractor, the applicability of the method does not depend on the dimensionality of the chaotic attractor - one main advantage over all time series analysis methods known until now. For demonstration, we analyze time series, which are obtained with the help of the numerical integration of a two-dimensional time-delay differential equation. After having determined the delay time, we recover...

  13. Fitting dynamic fator models to nonstationary time series

    OpenAIRE

    Eichler, M.; Motta, Giovanni; Von Sachs, Rainer

    2008-01-01

    Factor modelling of a large time series panel has widely proven useful to reduce its cross-sectional dimensionality. This is done by explaining common co-movements in the panel through the existence of a small number of common components, up to some idiosyncratic behaviour of each individual series. To capture serial correlation in the common components, a dynamic structure is used as in traditional (uni- or multivariate) time series analysis of second order structure,i.e. allowing f...

  14. Fitting dynamic factor models to non-stationary time series

    OpenAIRE

    Eichler Michael; Motta Giovanni; Sachs Rainer von

    2009-01-01

    Factor modelling of a large time series panel has widely proven useful to reduce its cross-sectional dimensionality. This is done by explaining common co-movements in the panel through the existence of a small number of common components, up to some idiosyncratic behaviour of each individual series. To capture serial correlation in the common components, a dynamic structure is used as in traditional (uni- or multivariate) time series analysis of second order structure, i.e. allowing for infin...

  15. Time series prediction using wavelet process neural network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ding Gang; Zhong Shi-Sheng; Li Yang

    2008-01-01

    In the real world, the inputs of many complicated systems are time-varying functions or processes. In order to predict the outputs of these systems with high speed and accuracy, this paper proposes a time series prediction model based on the wavelet process neural network, and develops the corresponding learning algorithm based on the expansion of the orthogonal basis functions. The effectiveness of the proposed time series prediction model and its learning algorithm is proved by the Mackey-Glass time series prediction, and the comparative prediction results indicate that the proposed time series prediction model based on the wavelet process neural network seems to perform well and appears suitable for using as a good tool to predict the highly complex nonlinear time series.

  16. Robust Forecasting of Non-Stationary Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Croux, C.; Fried, R.; Gijbels, I.; Mahieu, K.

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a robust forecasting method for non-stationary time series. The time series is modelled using non-parametric heteroscedastic regression, and fitted by a localized MM-estimator, combining high robustness and large efficiency. The proposed method is shown to produce reliable foreca

  17. A Computer Evolution in Teaching Undergraduate Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgess, Erin M.

    2004-01-01

    In teaching undergraduate time series courses, we have used a mixture of various statistical packages. We have finally been able to teach all of the applied concepts within one statistical package; R. This article describes the process that we use to conduct a thorough analysis of a time series. An example with a data set is provided. We compare…

  18. Two-fractal overlap time series: Earthquakes and market crashes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Bikas K Chakrabarti; Arnab Chatterjee; Pratip Bhattacharyya

    2008-08-01

    We find prominent similarities in the features of the time series for the (model earthquakes or) overlap of two Cantor sets when one set moves with uniform relative velocity over the other and time series of stock prices. An anticipation method for some of the crashes have been proposed here, based on these observations.

  19. Stata: The language of choice for time series analysis?

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher F. Baum

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses the use of Stata for the analysis of time series and panel data. The evolution of time-series capabilities in Stata is reviewed. Facilities for data management, graphics, and econometric analysis from both official Stata and the user community are discussed. A new routine to provide moving-window regression estimates, rollreg, is described, and its use illustrated.

  20. Parameterizing unconditional skewness in models for financial time series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, Changli; Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper we consider the third-moment structure of a class of time series models. It is often argued that the marginal distribution of financial time series such as returns is skewed. Therefore it is of importance to know what properties a model should possess if it is to accommodate...

  1. Using Time-Series Regression to Predict Academic Library Circulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Terrence A.

    1984-01-01

    Four methods were used to forecast monthly circulation totals in 15 midwestern academic libraries: dummy time-series regression, lagged time-series regression, simple average (straight-line forecasting), monthly average (naive forecasting). In tests of forecasting accuracy, dummy regression method and monthly mean method exhibited smallest average…

  2. Two Fractal Overlap Time Series: Earthquakes and Market Crashes

    OpenAIRE

    Chakrabarti, Bikas K.; Arnab Chatterjee; Pratip Bhattacharyya

    2007-01-01

    We find prominent similarities in the features of the time series for the (model earthquakes or) overlap of two Cantor sets when one set moves with uniform relative velocity over the other and time series of stock prices. An anticipation method for some of the crashes have been proposed here, based on these observations.

  3. Reprocessed height time series for GPS stations

    OpenAIRE

    S. Rudenko; Schön, N.; Uhlemann, M; G. Gendt

    2013-01-01

    Precise weekly positions of 403 Global Positioning System (GPS) stations located worldwide are obtained by reprocessing GPS data of these stations for the time span from 4 January 1998 until 29 December 2007. The processing algorithms and models used as well as the solution and results obtained are presented. Vertical velocities of 266 GPS stations having a tracking history longer than 2.5 yr are computed; 107 of them are GPS stations located at tide gauges (TIGA observing stations). The vert...

  4. Biometric Fingerprint Liveness Detection

    OpenAIRE

    Váňa, T.

    2015-01-01

    This paper deals with biometric fingerprint liveness detection. A software-based liveness detection approach using neural network is proposed. To distinguish between live and fake samples, three image quality features extracted from one image are used. The algorithm is tested on LivDet database comprising real and fake images acquired with three sensors.

  5. Machine Learning for Biometrics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salah, A.A.; Soria, E.; Martin, J.D.; Magdalena, R.; Martinez, M.; Serrano, A.J.

    2009-01-01

    Biometrics aims at reliable and robust identification of humans from their personal traits, mainly for security and authentication purposes, but also for identifying and tracking the users of smarter applications. Frequently considered modalities are fingerprint, face, iris, palmprint and voice, but

  6. Multi-Biometric Systems: A State of the Art Survey and Research Directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramadan Gad

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Multi-biometrics is an exciting and interesting research topic. It is used to recognizing individuals for security purposes; to increase security levels. The recent research trends toward next biometrics generation in real-time applications. Also, integration of biometrics solves some of unimodal system limitations. However, design and evaluation of such systems raises many issues and trade-offs. A state of the art survey of multi-biometrics benefits, limitations, integration strategies, and fusion levels are discussed in this paper. Finally, upon reviewing multi-biometrics approaches and techniques; some open points are suggested to be considered as a future research point of interest.

  7. Using wavelets for time series forecasting: Does it pay off?

    OpenAIRE

    Schlüter, Stephan; Deuschle, Carola

    2010-01-01

    By means of wavelet transform a time series can be decomposed into a time dependent sum of frequency components. As a result we are able to capture seasonalities with time-varying period and intensity, which nourishes the belief that incorporating the wavelet transform in existing forecasting methods can improve their quality. The article aims to verify this by comparing the power of classical and wavelet based techniques on the basis of four time series, each of them having individual charac...

  8. Time-Series Photometric Surveys: Some Musings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, S. B.

    We live in the era of large astronomical surveys aimed at collecting high photometric precision, high time resolution, and long term (near) continuous observations. Such surveys discover many variable sources and their study has led to new paradigms in observational astronomy. Periodic variables have a long and venerable history in astronomy being highly useful as distance ladders, to investigate stellar interior physics and to map out Galactic structure. However, typically less than 10% of all variable sources are periodic and a detailed understanding of the majority of variables, the non-periodic sources, is lacking. What can we learn from non-periodic variables? Are there alternative techniques or types of study that may help elucidate their true nature? This talk will attempt to provide a short review of our understanding of variable sources and provide some suggestions for a methodology toward the study of non-variable astronomical sources.

  9. Useful Pattern Mining on Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goumatianos, Nikitas; Christou, Ioannis T; Lindgren, Peter

    2013-01-01

    We present the architecture of a “useful pattern” mining system that is capable of detecting thousands of different candlestick sequence patterns at the tick or any higher granularity levels. The system architecture is highly distributed and performs most of its highly compute-intensive aggregation......% or higher increase (or, alternatively, decrease) in a chosen property of the stock (e.g. close-value) within a given time-window (e.g. 5 days). Initial results from a first prototype implementation of the architecture show that after training on a large set of stocks, the system is capable of finding...... a significant number of candlestick sequences whose output signals (measured against an unseen set of stocks) have predictive accuracy which varies between 60% and 95% depended on the type of pattern....

  10. Interactive analysis of gappy bivariate time series using AGSS

    OpenAIRE

    Lewis, Peter A.W.; Ray, Bonnie K.

    1992-01-01

    Bivariate time series which display nonstationary behavior, such as cycles or long-term trends, are common in fields such as oceanography and meteorology. These are usually very large-scale data sets and often may contain long gaps of missing values in one or both series, with the gaps perhaps occurring at different time periods in the two series. We present a simplified but effective method of interactively examining and filling in the missing values in such series using extensions of the me...

  11. Comparison of New and Old Sunspot Number Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cliver, E. W.

    2016-06-01

    Four new sunspot number time series have been published in this Topical Issue: a backbone-based group number in Svalgaard and Schatten (Solar Phys., 2016; referred to here as SS, 1610 - present), a group number series in Usoskin et al. (Solar Phys., 2016; UEA, 1749 - present) that employs active day fractions from which it derives an observational threshold in group spot area as a measure of observer merit, a provisional group number series in Cliver and Ling (Solar Phys., 2016; CL, 1841 - 1976) that removed flaws in the Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys. 179, 189, 1998a; 181, 491, 1998b) normalization scheme for the original relative group sunspot number ( RG, 1610 - 1995), and a corrected Wolf (international, RI) number in Clette and Lefèvre (Solar Phys., 2016; SN, 1700 - present). Despite quite different construction methods, the four new series agree well after about 1900. Before 1900, however, the UEA time series is lower than SS, CL, and SN, particularly so before about 1885. Overall, the UEA series most closely resembles the original RG series. Comparison of the UEA and SS series with a new solar wind B time series (Owens et al. in J. Geophys. Res., 2016; 1845 - present) indicates that the UEA time series is too low before 1900. We point out incongruities in the Usoskin et al. (Solar Phys., 2016) observer normalization scheme and present evidence that this method under-estimates group counts before 1900. In general, a correction factor time series, obtained by dividing an annual group count series by the corresponding yearly averages of raw group counts for all observers, can be used to assess the reliability of new sunspot number reconstructions.

  12. Application of p-adic analysis to time series

    OpenAIRE

    Khrennikov, A. Yu.; Kozyrev, S. V.; Oleschko, K. (collab.); Jaramillo, A. G.; Lopez, M. de Jesus Correa

    2013-01-01

    Time series defined by a p-adic pseudo-differential equation is investigated using the expansion of the time series over p-adic wavelets. Quadratic correlation function is computed. This correlation function shows a degree--like behavior and is locally constant for some time periods. It is natural to apply this kind of models for the investigation of avalanche processes and punctuated equilibrium as well as fractal-like analysis of time series generated by measurement of pressure in oil wells.

  13. Time series analysis and inverse theory for geophysicists

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Junzo Kasahara

    2006-01-01

    @@ Thanks to the advances in geophysical measurement technologies, most geophysical data are now recorded in digital form. But to extract the ‘Earth's nature’ from observed data, it is necessary to apply the signal-processing method to the time-series data, seismograms and geomagnetic records being the most common. The processing of time-series data is one of the major subjects of this book.By the processing of time series data, numerical values such as travel-times are obtained.The first stage of data analysis is forward modeling, but the more advanced step is the inversion method. This is the second subject of this book.

  14. Performance of multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis on short time series

    CERN Document Server

    Lopez, Juan Luis

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the multifractal detrended analysis on short time series is evaluated for synthetic samples of several mono- and multifractal models. The reconstruction of the generalized Hurst exponents is used to determine the range of applicability of the method and the precision of its results as a function of the decreasing length of the series. As an application the series of the daily exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the euro is studied.

  15. Contactless Biometrics in Wireless Sensor Network: A Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzak, Muhammad Imran; Khan, Muhammad Khurram; Alghathbar, Khaled

    Security can be enhanced through wireless sensor network using contactless biometrics and it remains a challenging and demanding task due to several limitations of wireless sensor network. Network life time is very less if it involves image processing task due to heavy energy required for image processing and image communication. Contactless biometrics such as face recognition is most suitable and applicable for wireless sensor network. Distributed face recognition in WSN not only help to reduce the communication overload but it also increase the node life time by distributing the work load on the nodes. This paper presents state-of-art of biometrics in wireless sensor network.

  16. Database for Hydrological Time Series of Inland Waters (DAHITI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwatke, Christian; Dettmering, Denise

    2016-04-01

    Satellite altimetry was designed for ocean applications. However, since some years, satellite altimetry is also used over inland water to estimate water level time series of lakes, rivers and wetlands. The resulting water level time series can help to understand the water cycle of system earth and makes altimetry to a very useful instrument for hydrological applications. In this poster, we introduce the "Database for Hydrological Time Series of Inland Waters" (DAHITI). Currently, the database contains about 350 water level time series of lakes, reservoirs, rivers, and wetlands which are freely available after a short registration process via http://dahiti.dgfi.tum.de. In this poster, we introduce the product of DAHITI and the functionality of the DAHITI web service. Furthermore, selected examples of inland water targets are presented in detail. DAHITI provides time series of water level heights of inland water bodies and their formal errors . These time series are available within the period of 1992-2015 and have varying temporal resolutions depending on the data coverage of the investigated water body. The accuracies of the water level time series depend mainly on the extent of the investigated water body and the quality of the altimeter measurements. Hereby, an external validation with in-situ data reveals RMS differences between 5 cm and 40 cm for lakes and 10 cm and 140 cm for rivers, respectively.

  17. Piecewise Trend Approximation: A Ratio-Based Time Series Representation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingpei Dan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A time series representation, piecewise trend approximation (PTA, is proposed to improve efficiency of time series data mining in high dimensional large databases. PTA represents time series in concise form while retaining main trends in original time series; the dimensionality of original data is therefore reduced, and the key features are maintained. Different from the representations that based on original data space, PTA transforms original data space into the feature space of ratio between any two consecutive data points in original time series, of which sign and magnitude indicate changing direction and degree of local trend, respectively. Based on the ratio-based feature space, segmentation is performed such that each two conjoint segments have different trends, and then the piecewise segments are approximated by the ratios between the first and last points within the segments. To validate the proposed PTA, it is compared with classical time series representations PAA and APCA on two classical datasets by applying the commonly used K-NN classification algorithm. For ControlChart dataset, PTA outperforms them by 3.55% and 2.33% higher classification accuracy and 8.94% and 7.07% higher for Mixed-BagShapes dataset, respectively. It is indicated that the proposed PTA is effective for high dimensional time series data mining.

  18. Forecasting Compositional Time Series with Exponential Smoothing Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Anne B. Koehler; Ralph D Snyder; J Keith Ord; Adrian Beaumont

    2010-01-01

    Compositional time series are formed from measurements of proportions that sum to one in each period of time. We might be interested in forecasting the proportion of home loans that have adjustable rates, the proportion of nonagricultural jobs in manufacturing, the proportion of a rock's geochemical composition that is a specific oxide, or the proportion of an election betting market choosing a particular candidate. A problem may involve many related time series of proportions. There could be...

  19. Image-Based Learning Approach Applied to Time Series Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    J. C. Chimal-Eguía; K. Ramírez-Amáro

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, a new learning approach based on time-series image information is presented. In order to implementthis new learning technique, a novel time-series input data representation is also defined. This input data representation is based on information obtained by image axis division into boxes. The difference between this new input data representation and the classical is that this technique is not time-dependent. This new information is implemented in the new Image-Based Learning A...

  20. Artificial neural networks applied to forecasting time series

    OpenAIRE

    Montaño Moreno, Juan José; Palmer Pol, Alfonso; Muñoz Gracia, María del Pilar

    2011-01-01

    This study offers a description and comparison of the main models of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) which have proved to be useful in time series forecasting, and also a standard procedure for the practical application of ANN in this type of task. The Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Radial Base Function (RBF), Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN), and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) models are analyzed. With this aim in mind, we use a time series made up of 244 time points. A comparativ...

  1. Analysis of multidimensional geophysical monitoring time series for earthquake prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Lyubushin, A. A.

    1999-01-01

    A method is presented for detection of synchronous signals in multidimensional time series data. It is based on estimation of eigenvalues of spectral matrices and canonical coherences in moving time windows and extraction of an aggregated signal (a scalar signal, which accumulates in its own variations only those spectral components which are present simultaneously in each scalar time series). It is known that an increase in the collective behavior of the components of some systems and an enl...

  2. Detecting temporal and spatial correlations in pseudoperiodic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jie; Luo, Xiaodong; Nakamura, Tomomichi; Sun, Junfeng; Small, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Recently there has been much attention devoted to exploring the complicated possibly chaotic dynamics in pseudoperiodic time series. Two methods [Zhang , Phys. Rev. E 73, 016216 (2006); Zhang and Small, Phys. Rev. Lett. 96, 238701 (2006)] have been forwarded to reveal the chaotic temporal and spatial correlations, respectively, among the cycles in the time series. Both these methods treat the cycle as the basic unit and design specific statistics that indicate the presence of chaotic dynamics. In this paper, we verify the validity of these statistics to capture the chaotic correlation among cycles by using the surrogate data method. In particular, the statistics computed for the original time series are compared with those from its surrogates. The surrogate data we generate is pseudoperiodic type (PPS), which preserves the inherent periodic components while destroying the subtle nonlinear (chaotic) structure. Since the inherent chaotic correlations among cycles, either spatial or temporal (which are suitably characterized by the proposed statistics), are eliminated through the surrogate generation process, we expect the statistics from the surrogate to take significantly different values than those from the original time series. Hence the ability of the statistics to capture the chaotic correlation in the time series can be validated. Application of this procedure to both chaotic time series and real world data clearly demonstrates the effectiveness of the statistics. We have found clear evidence of chaotic correlations among cycles in human electrocardiogram and vowel time series. Furthermore, we show that this framework is more sensitive to examine the subtle changes in the dynamics of the time series due to the match between PPS surrogate and the statistics adopted. It offers a more reliable tool to reveal the possible correlations among cycles intrinsic to the chaotic nature of the pseudoperiodic time series.

  3. Investigating effects in GNSS station coordinate time series

    OpenAIRE

    Haritonova, Diana; Balodis, Janis; Janpaule, Inese

    2014-01-01

    The vertical and horizontal displacements of the Earth can be measured to a high degree of precision using GNSS. Time series of Latvian GNSS station positions of both the EUPOS®-Riga and LatPos networks have been developed at the Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation of the University of Latvia (LU GGI). In this study the main focus is made on the noise analysis of the obtained time series and site displacement identification. The results of time series have been analysed and distinctive be...

  4. Analysis of complex time series using refined composite multiscale entropy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Shuen-De; Wu, Chiu-Wen [Department of Mechatronic Technology, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei 10610, Taiwan (China); Lin, Shiou-Gwo [Department of Communications, Navigation and Control Engineering, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung 20224, Taiwan (China); Lee, Kung-Yen [Department of Engineering Science and Ocean Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China); Peng, Chung-Kang [College of Health Sciences and Technology, National Central University, Chung-Li 32001, Taiwan (China); Division of Interdisciplinary Medicine and Biotechnology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center/Harvard Medical School, Boston (United States)

    2014-04-01

    Multiscale entropy (MSE) is an effective algorithm for measuring the complexity of a time series that has been applied in many fields successfully. However, MSE may yield an inaccurate estimation of entropy or induce undefined entropy because the coarse-graining procedure reduces the length of a time series considerably at large scales. Composite multiscale entropy (CMSE) was recently proposed to improve the accuracy of MSE, but it does not resolve undefined entropy. Here we propose a refined composite multiscale entropy (RCMSE) to improve CMSE. For short time series analyses, we demonstrate that RCMSE increases the accuracy of entropy estimation and reduces the probability of inducing undefined entropy.

  5. On the detection of superdiffusive behaviour in time series

    CERN Document Server

    Gottwald, Georg A

    2016-01-01

    We present a new method for detecting superdiffusive behaviour and for determining rates of superdiffusion in time series data. Our method applies equally to stochastic and deterministic time series data and relies on one realisation (ie one sample path) of the process. Linear drift effects are automatically removed without any preprocessing. We show numerical results for time series constructed from i.i.d. $\\alpha$-stable random variables and from deterministic weakly chaotic maps. We compare our method with the standard method of estimating the growth rate of the mean-square displacement as well as the $p$-variation method.

  6. Estimation of connectivity measures in gappy time series

    CERN Document Server

    Papadopoulos, G

    2015-01-01

    A new method is proposed to compute connectivity measures on multivariate time series with gaps. Rather than removing or filling the gaps, the rows of the joint data matrix containing empty entries are removed and the calculations are done on the remainder matrix. The method, called measure adapted gap removal (MAGR), can be applied to any connectivity measure that uses a joint data matrix, such as cross correlation, cross mutual information and transfer entropy. MAGR is favorably compared using these three measures to a number of known gap-filling techniques, as well as the gap closure. The superiority of MAGR is illustrated on time series from synthetic systems and financial time series.

  7. Segmentation of Nonstationary Time Series with Geometric Clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bocharov, Alexei; Thiesson, Bo

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a non-parametric method for segmentation in regimeswitching time-series models. The approach is based on spectral clustering of target-regressor tuples and derives a switching regression tree, where regime switches are modeled by oblique splits. Such models can be learned efficiently...... from data, where clustering is used to propose one single split candidate at each split level. We use the class of ART time series models to serve as illustration, but because of the non-parametric nature of our segmentation approach, it readily generalizes to a wide range of time-series models that go...

  8. Multivariate time series analysis with R and financial applications

    CERN Document Server

    Tsay, Ruey S

    2013-01-01

    Since the publication of his first book, Analysis of Financial Time Series, Ruey Tsay has become one of the most influential and prominent experts on the topic of time series. Different from the traditional and oftentimes complex approach to multivariate (MV) time series, this sequel book emphasizes structural specification, which results in simplified parsimonious VARMA modeling and, hence, eases comprehension. Through a fundamental balance between theory and applications, the book supplies readers with an accessible approach to financial econometric models and their applications to real-worl

  9. Biometrics Human Face Recognition Techniques

    OpenAIRE

    P.RAVI TEJA#1 , R.R.V.S.S.ABHISHEK *2 , P.RAM MANINTH

    2013-01-01

    Most of the technologies now being developed for the purpose of automatic capture, measurement and identification of distinctive physiological that could safe our identity and therefore our property and privacy have come to be named as 'biometrics', because they implied statistical technique to observe the phenomena in biological. However, the followers of biometrics are much broader than just identity verification. Biometrics plays a essentials role in agriculture, environmental and life sci...

  10. Multi-dimensional sparse time series: feature extraction

    CERN Document Server

    Franciosi, Marco

    2008-01-01

    We show an analysis of multi-dimensional time series via entropy and statistical linguistic techniques. We define three markers encoding the behavior of the series, after it has been translated into a multi-dimensional symbolic sequence. The leading component and the trend of the series with respect to a mobile window analysis result from the entropy analysis and label the dynamical evolution of the series. The diversification formalizes the differentiation in the use of recurrent patterns, from a Zipf law point of view. These markers are the starting point of further analysis such as classification or clustering of large database of multi-dimensional time series, prediction of future behavior and attribution of new data. We also present an application to economic data. We deal with measurements of money investments of some business companies in advertising market for different media sources.

  11. Fast and Flexible Multivariate Time Series Subsequence Search

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Multivariate Time-Series (MTS) are ubiquitous, and are generated in areas as disparate as sensor recordings in aerospace systems, music and video streams, medical...

  12. Phenotyping of Clinical Time Series with LSTM Recurrent Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Lipton, Zachary C.; Kale, David C.; Wetzell, Randall C.

    2015-01-01

    We present a novel application of LSTM recurrent neural networks to multilabel classification of diagnoses given variable-length time series of clinical measurements. Our method outperforms a strong baseline on a variety of metrics.

  13. A mixed time series model of binomial counts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoo, Wooi Chen; Ong, Seng Huat

    2015-10-01

    Continuous time series modelling has been an active research in the past few decades. However, time series data in terms of correlated counts appear in many situations such as the counts of rainy days and access downloading. Therefore, the study on count data has become popular in time series modelling recently. This article introduces a new mixture model, which is an univariate non-negative stationary time series model with binomial marginal distribution, arising from the combination of the well-known binomial thinning and Pegram's operators. A brief review of important properties will be carried out and the EM algorithm is applied in parameter estimation. A numerical study is presented to show the performance of the model. Finally, a potential real application will be presented to illustrate the advantage of the new mixture model.

  14. Lagrangian Time Series Models for Ocean Surface Drifter Trajectories

    CERN Document Server

    Sykulski, Adam M; Lilly, Jonathan M; Danioux, Eric

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes stochastic models for the analysis of ocean surface trajectories obtained from freely-drifting satellite-tracked instruments. The proposed time series models are used to summarise large multivariate datasets and infer important physical parameters of inertial oscillations and other ocean processes. Nonstationary time series methods are employed to account for the spatiotemporal variability of each trajectory. Because the datasets are large, we construct computationally efficient methods through the use of frequency-domain modelling and estimation, with the data expressed as complex-valued time series. We detail how practical issues related to sampling and model misspecification may be addressed using semi-parametric techniques for time series, and we demonstrate the effectiveness of our stochastic models through application to both real-world data and to numerical model output.

  15. AFSC/ABL: Naknek sockeye salmon scale time series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A time series of scale samples (1956 2002) collected from adult sockeye salmon returning to Naknek River were retrieved from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game....

  16. AFSC/ABL: Ugashik sockeye salmon scale time series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A time series of scale samples (1956 b?? 2002) collected from adult sockeye salmon returning to Ugashik River were retrieved from the Alaska Department of Fish and...

  17. The Ohio economy: using time series characteristics in forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    James G. Hoehn; James J. Balazsy

    1985-01-01

    The premise of this study is that the regional economist can better understand the Ohio economy by studying the properties of important Ohio time series that can be identified and quantified through simple regression methods.

  18. Residual diagnostics for cross-section time series regression models

    OpenAIRE

    Baum, Christopher F

    2001-01-01

    These routines support the diagnosis of groupwise heteroskedasticity and cross-sectional correlation in the context of a regression model fit to pooled cross-section time series (xt) data. Copyright 2001 by Stata Corporation.

  19. Review of English textbooks in time series analysis (in Russian)

    OpenAIRE

    Stanislav Anatolyev

    2008-01-01

    This is a survey of most notable time series econometrics texts written in English. The essay reflects the author's opinion, as well as opinions of econometricians expressed in published book reviews.

  20. A Matlab Code for Univariate Time Series Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Shapour Mohammadi; Hossein Abbasi- Nejad

    2005-01-01

    This M-File forecasts univariate time series such as stock prices with a feedforward neural networks. It finds best (minimume RMSE) network automatically and uses early stopping method for solving overfitting problem.

  1. Biometrics Go Mainstream

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, Doug

    2006-01-01

    Authentication is based on something one knows (e.g., a password), something one has (e.g., a driver's license), or something one is (e.g., a fingerprint). The last of these refers to the use of biometrics for authentication. With the blink of an eye, the touch of a finger, or the uttering of a pass-phrase, colleges and schools can now get deadly…

  2. BIOMETRICS IN ZOOTECHNICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordana Kralik

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available University textbook Biometrics in zootechnics, by authors Prof.Dr.Sc.Dr.hc. Gordana Kralik, Prof.Dr. Zoran Škrtić and Assist.Prof.Dr. Zlata Kralik from the Faculty of Agriculture in Osijek, contains the following chapters: 1.Introduction overview, 2. Sample analysis, 3. Parameter estimation, 4. Hypothesis testing, 5. Variance analysis of experimental plans, 6. Regression and correlation, 7. Calculation of statistical parameters in Microsoft Office Excel 2007, 8. Scientific and professional work, Literature, Symbols and formulas, Material (tables and Index – glossary. The textbook is written for undergraduate, graduate and postgraduate students of the Faculty of Agriculture, J.J. Strossmayer University of Osijek. As longtime university teachers, authors noticed the needfor publishing textbook Biometrics in zootechnics due to the lack of literature. The textbook can also be used by students from other agricultural universities and agronomists who want to acquire basic knowledge about the use of biometric methods in the zootechnics. The aim of the authors is to clarify the core issues of research workand biometric data processing to interested readers in a simple and acceptable way. Students and professionals who wish to be engaged in research work should be familiar with the planning and conduction of experiments, data collection and analysis, data processing, aswell as interpretation of results. From cooperation and contacts with the students, authors have realized the fact that many of them are not prone to mathematics. The textbook is written without mathematical “derivation” and theoretical interpretations and is easily accessible to students and experts to whom it is intended.

  3. Effect of two dead times in series on coincidence measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Funck, E.

    1987-01-01

    Dead times in series occur in any counting device where detector signals are electronically amplified, selected for pulse height by a discriminator (or pulse-height analyzer) and fed through a dead-time unit producing a dead time, which has very often been designed to establish definite dead time losses. The problem of two dead times in series has been treated by J.W. Muller. No attempt, however, seems to have been made up to now to investigate this problem for the electronics of a coincidence system. In the paper presented here two dead times in series are considered that are found either in one or in both channels of a coincidence system. Correction formulas with experimental evidence are given which allow the deviations from results, which were calculated by taking only one dead time per channel into account, to be estimated.

  4. The biometric-based module of smart grid system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, E.; Kovalev, I. V.; Ermoshkina, A.

    2015-10-01

    Within Smart Grid concept the flexible biometric-based module base on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and selective Neural Network is developed. The formation of the selective Neural Network the biometric-based module uses the method which includes three main stages: preliminary processing of the image, face localization and face recognition. Experiments on the Yale face database show that (i) selective Neural Network exhibits promising classification capability for face detection, recognition problems; and (ii) the proposed biometric-based module achieves near real-time face detection, recognition speed and the competitive performance, as compared to some existing subspaces-based methods.

  5. Age factors in biometric processing

    CERN Document Server

    Fairhurst, Michael

    2013-01-01

    As biometrics-based identification and identity authentication become increasingly widespread in their deployment, it becomes correspondingly important to consider more carefully issues relating to reliability, usability and inclusion. One factor which is particularly important in this context is that of the relationship between the nature of the measurements extracted from a particular biometric modality and the age of the sample donor, and the effect which age has on physiological and behavioural characteristics invoked in a biometric transaction. In Age Factors in Biometric Processing an in

  6. Neural Networks, Game Theory and Time Series Generation

    OpenAIRE

    Metzler, Richard

    2002-01-01

    This dissertation highlights connections between the fields of neural networks, game theory and time series generation. The concept of antipredictability is explained, and the properties of time series that are antipredictable for several prototypical prediction algorithms (neural networks, Boolean funtions etc.) are studied. The Minority Game provides a framework in which antipredictability arises naturally. Several variations of the MG are introduced and compared, including extensions to mo...

  7. The use of synthetic input sequences in time series modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira, Dair Jose de [Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia Eletrica, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Antonio Carlos 6627, 31.270-901 Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Letellier, Christophe [CORIA/CNRS UMR 6614, Universite et INSA de Rouen, Av. de l' Universite, BP 12, F-76801 Saint-Etienne du Rouvray cedex (France); Gomes, Murilo E.D. [Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia Eletrica, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Antonio Carlos 6627, 31.270-901 Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Aguirre, Luis A. [Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia Eletrica, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Av. Antonio Carlos 6627, 31.270-901 Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil)], E-mail: aguirre@cpdee.ufmg.br

    2008-08-04

    In many situations time series models obtained from noise-like data settle to trivial solutions under iteration. This Letter proposes a way of producing a synthetic (dummy) input, that is included to prevent the model from settling down to a trivial solution, while maintaining features of the original signal. Simulated benchmark models and a real time series of RR intervals from an ECG are used to illustrate the procedure.

  8. Stacked Heterogeneous Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin Leon

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A hybrid model for time series forecasting is proposed. It is a stacked neural network, containing one normal multilayer perceptron with bipolar sigmoid activation functions, and the other with an exponential activation function in the output layer. As shown by the case studies, the proposed stacked hybrid neural model performs well on a variety of benchmark time series. The combination of weights of the two stack components that leads to optimal performance is also studied.

  9. Model-Coupled Autoencoder for Time Series Visualisation

    OpenAIRE

    Gianniotis, Nikolaos; Kügler, Sven D.; Tiňo, Peter; Polsterer, Kai L.

    2016-01-01

    We present an approach for the visualisation of a set of time series that combines an echo state network with an autoencoder. For each time series in the dataset we train an echo state network, using a common and fixed reservoir of hidden neurons, and use the optimised readout weights as the new representation. Dimensionality reduction is then performed via an autoencoder on the readout weight representations. The crux of the work is to equip the autoencoder with a loss function that correctl...

  10. On the prediction of stationary functional time series

    OpenAIRE

    Aue, A.; Norinho, DD; Hörmann, S

    2012-01-01

    © 2015, American Statistical Association. This article addresses the prediction of stationary functional time series. Existing contributions to this problem have largely focused on the special case of first-order functional autoregressive processes because of their technical tractability and the current lack of advanced functional time series methodology. It is shown here how standard multivariate prediction techniques can be used in this context. The connection between functional and multiva...

  11. Trimmed Granger causality between two groups of time series

    OpenAIRE

    Hung, Ying-Chao; Tseng, Neng-Fang; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

    2014-01-01

    The identification of causal effects between two groups of time series has been an important topic in a wide range of applications such as economics, engineering, medicine, neuroscience, and biology. In this paper, a simplified causal relationship (called trimmed Granger causality) based on the context of Granger causality and vector autoregressive (VAR) model is introduced. The idea is to characterize a subset of “important variables” for both groups of time series so that the underlying cau...

  12. Time series analysis of age related cataract hospitalizations and phacoemulsification

    OpenAIRE

    2006-01-01

    Background Cataract surgery remains a commonly performed elective surgical procedure in the aging and the elderly. The purpose of this study was to utilize time series methodology to determine the temporal and seasonal variations and the strength of the seasonality in age-related (senile) cataract hospitalizations and phacoemulsification surgeries. Methods A retrospective, cross-sectional time series analysis was used to assess the presence and strength of seasonal and temporal patterns of ag...

  13. Gaussian Processes for Local Polynomial Forecasting of Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Fendick, Kerry

    2016-01-01

    The samples of a signal obscured by noise constitute an example of a time series frequently encountered in applications. We consider here the feasibility of accurately forecasting the signals of multiple such time series considering jointly when the number of historic samples is inadequate for accurately forecasting the signal of each considered in isolation. We develop a new forecasting methodology based on Gaussian process regression that is successful in doing so in examples for which the ...

  14. Time Series Estimates of the Italian Consumer Confidence Indicator

    OpenAIRE

    Paradiso, Antonio; Rao, B. Bhaskara; Margani, Patrizia

    2011-01-01

    This work shows that Italian consumer confidence indicator (CCI) is non-stationary and, therefore, can be estimated with the time series methods. It is found that a long-run relationship exists between CCI, short-term interest rate, industrial production index and the difference between perceived and measured inflation. The use of time series methods to estimate CCI for Italy is a novelty in the literature.

  15. From Local to Global Analysis of Music Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Ligges, Uwe; Weihs, Claus

    2004-01-01

    Local and more and more global musical structure is analyzed from audio time series by time-series-event analysis with the aim of automatic sheet music production and comparison of singers. Note events are determined and classified based on local spectra, and rules of bar events are identified based on accentuation events related to local energy. In order to compare the performances of different singers global summary measures are defined characterizing the overall performance.

  16. Multiple Time Series Ising Model for Financial Market Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper we propose an Ising model which simulates multiple financial time series. Our model introduces the interaction which couples to spins of other systems. Simulations from our model show that time series exhibit the volatility clustering that is often observed in the real financial markets. Furthermore we also find non-zero cross correlations between the volatilities from our model. Thus our model can simulate stock markets where volatilities of stocks are mutually correlated

  17. Geomechanical time series and its singularity spectrum analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lyubushin, Alexei A.; Kaláb, Zdeněk; Lednická, Markéta

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 47, č. 1 (2012), s. 69-77. ISSN 1217-8977 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA105/09/0089 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30860518 Keywords : geomechanical time series * singularity spectrum * time series segmentation * laser distance meter Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 0.347, year: 2012 http://www.akademiai.com/content/88v4027758382225/fulltext.pdf

  18. Time Series Classification by Class-Specific Mahalanobis Distance Measures

    OpenAIRE

    Prekopcsák, Zoltán; Lemire, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    To classify time series by nearest neighbors, we need to specify or learn one or several distance measures. We consider variations of the Mahalanobis distance measures which rely on the inverse covariance matrix of the data. Unfortunately --- for time series data --- the covariance matrix has often low rank. To alleviate this problem we can either use a pseudoinverse, covariance shrinking or limit the matrix to its diagonal. We review these alternatives and benchmark them against competitive ...

  19. Automated Feature Design for Time Series Classification by Genetic Programming

    OpenAIRE

    Harvey, Dustin Yewell

    2014-01-01

    Time series classification (TSC) methods discover and exploit patterns in time series and other one-dimensional signals. Although many accurate, robust classifiers exist for multivariate feature sets, general approaches are needed to extend machine learning techniques to make use of signal inputs. Numerous applications of TSC can be found in structural engineering, especially in the areas of structural health monitoring and non-destructive evaluation. Additionally, the fields of process contr...

  20. Application of a Local Polynomial Approximation Chaotic Time Series Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Orzeszko, Witold

    2004-01-01

    Chaos theory has become a new approach to financial processes analysis. Due to complicated dynamics, chaotic time series seem to be random and, in consequence, unpredictable. In fact, unlike truly random processes, chaotic dynamics can be forecasted very precisely in a short run. In this paper, a local polynomial approximation is presented. Its efficiency, as a method of building short-term predictors of chaotic time series, has been examined. The presented method has been applied to forecast...

  1. Adaptive Fourier Analysis For Unequally-Spaced Time Series Data

    OpenAIRE

    Liang, Hong

    2002-01-01

    Adaptive Fourier Analysis For Unequally-Spaced Time Series Data by Hong Liang Robert V. Foutz, Chairman Statistics (ABSTRACT) Fourier analysis, Walsh-Fourier analysis, and wavelet analysis have often been used in time series analysis. Fourier analysis can be used to detect periodic components that have sinusoidal shape; however, it might be misleading when the periodic components are not sinusoidal. Walsh-Fourier analysis is suitable for revealing the rectangular ...

  2. Locally adaptive factor processes for multivariate time series

    OpenAIRE

    Durante, Daniele; Scarpa, Bruno; Dunson, David B

    2012-01-01

    In modeling multivariate time series, it is important to allow time-varying smoothness in the mean and covariance process. In particular, there may be certain time intervals exhibiting rapid changes and others in which changes are slow. If such time-varying smoothness is not accounted for, one can obtain misleading inferences and predictions, with over-smoothing across erratic time intervals and under-smoothing across times exhibiting slow variation. This can lead to mis-calibration of predic...

  3. Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper price

    OpenAIRE

    Liew, Venus Khim-Sen; Shitan, Mahendran; Hussain, Huzaimi

    2000-01-01

    Pepper is an important agriculture commodity especially for the state of Sarawak. It is important to forecast its price, as this could help the policy makers in coming up with production and marketing plan to improve the Sarawak’s economy as well as the farmers’welfare. In this paper, we take up time series modelling and forecasting of the Sarawak black pepper price. Our empirical results show that Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) time series models fit the price series well and they have...

  4. Time Series Analysis of Insar Data: Methods and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmanoglu, Batuhan; Sunar, Filiz; Wdowinski, Shimon; Cano-Cabral, Enrique

    2015-01-01

    Time series analysis of InSAR data has emerged as an important tool for monitoring and measuring the displacement of the Earth's surface. Changes in the Earth's surface can result from a wide range of phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, variations in ground water levels, and changes in wetland water levels. Time series analysis is applied to interferometric phase measurements, which wrap around when the observed motion is larger than one-half of the radar wavelength. Thus, the spatio-temporal ''unwrapping" of phase observations is necessary to obtain physically meaningful results. Several different algorithms have been developed for time series analysis of InSAR data to solve for this ambiguity. These algorithms may employ different models for time series analysis, but they all generate a first-order deformation rate, which can be compared to each other. However, there is no single algorithm that can provide optimal results in all cases. Since time series analyses of InSAR data are used in a variety of applications with different characteristics, each algorithm possesses inherently unique strengths and weaknesses. In this review article, following a brief overview of InSAR technology, we discuss several algorithms developed for time series analysis of InSAR data using an example set of results for measuring subsidence rates in Mexico City.

  5. A Novel Biometric Technique Benchmark Analysis For Selection Of Best Biometric Modality And Template Generation Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharanabasappa Raikoti

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available A biometric security is a technique by means of which digital contents are protected by acryptographic key generated from the biometric features of a person like Retina, Iris, Fingerprint,Face, Voice and so on. Normally the digital contents like documents are protected by acryptographic key generated from a unique password. The process in irreversible, i.e the key canbe generated from the password but not the vice versa. Passwords are relatively easy to hack asmost of the users keep their personal information like date of birth as password and alsopassword length has a limit as human beings cannot remember a password of significantly largelength. Hence guessing the password of a user, whose significant information is available, iseasier. Therefore off late lot of emphasis has been given to biometric features. Biometric featuresof no two people are same. For example the finger prints or the face of any two people differ.Hence if a template (alphanumeric or binary representation of features from a biometric data isselected for the key generation than cracking them for accessing information becomessignificantly difficult. But as with every advantage comes certain limitations also. The keys are nottime invariant. Templates tends to change based on the data acquisition, or with time. Forexample the finger prints or palm prints changes with ages. Iris, retina and face features changeswith change in light intensity during the acquisition phase. Fingerprint features changes withchange in the orientation of the finger while scanning. In a classic authentication problem, suchvariability’s can be easily dealt with by keeping a threshold for the acceptance of the features.Such acceptance threshold is not applicable for the case of biometric templates. Even slightest ofthe variability in the templates changes the generated key, therefore causing a high falserejection rate. Hence in this work we analyze the most accepted biometric features andtechniques for

  6. Time-varying parameter auto-regressive models for autocovariance nonstationary time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, autocovariance nonstationary time series is clearly defined on a family of time series. We propose three types of TVPAR (time-varying parameter auto-regressive) models: the full order TVPAR model, the time-unvarying order TVPAR model and the time-varying order TV-PAR model for autocovariance nonstationary time series. Related minimum AIC (Akaike information criterion) estimations are carried out.

  7. Time-varying parameter auto-regressive models for autocovariance nonstationary time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FEI WanChun; BAI Lun

    2009-01-01

    In this paper,autocovariance nonstationary time series is clearly defined on a family of time series.We propose three types of TVPAR (time-varying parameter auto-regressive) models:the full order TVPAR model,the time-unvarying order TVPAR model and the time-varying order TVPAR model for autocovariance nonstationary time series.Related minimum AIC (Akaike information criterion) estimations are carried out.

  8. Comparison of New and Old Sunspot Number Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cliver, Edward W.; Clette, Frédéric; Lefévre, Laure; Svalgaard, Leif

    2016-05-01

    As a result of the Sunspot Number Workshops, five new sunspot series have recently been proposed: a revision of the original Wolf or international sunspot number (Lockwood et al., 2014), a backbone-based group sunspot number (Svalgaard and Schatten, 2016), a revised group number series that employs active day fractions (Usoskin et al., 2016), a provisional group sunspot number series (Cliver and Ling, 2016) that removes flaws in the normalization scheme for the original group sunspot number (Hoyt and Schatten,1998), and a revised Wolf or international number (termed SN) published on the SILSO website as a replacement for the original Wolf number (Clette and Lefèvre, 2016; thttp://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles). Despite quite different construction methods, the five new series agree reasonably well after about 1900. From 1750 to ~1875, however, the Lockwood et al. and Usoskin et al. time series are lower than the other three series. Analysis of the Hoyt and Schatten normalization factors used to scale secondary observers to their Royal Greenwich Observatory primary observer reveals a significant inhomogeneity spanning the divergence in ~1885 of the group number from the original Wolf number. In general, a correction factor time series, obtained by dividing an annual group count series by the corresponding yearly averages of raw group counts for all observers, can be used to assess the reliability of new sunspot number reconstructions.

  9. Dual watermarking technique with multiple biometric watermarks

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Vandana S Inamdar; Priti P Rege

    2014-02-01

    In order to improve the robustness of the watermarking algorithm, a dual watermarking method is proposed to prove copyright ownership. Visible watermarking is important for protecting online resources from unauthorized reproduction. However robust, visible watermarks are vulnerable to illegal removal and other common signal processing and geometric attacks. Multiple invisible watermarks can enhance the protection of the visibly watermarked image. When the ownership of tampered image is in question, the invisible watermark can be extracted to provide appropriate ownership information. We have proposed dual watermarking scheme with multiple biometric watermarks in which it embeds speech and face biometric traits of owner invisibly and lastly offline signature is overlaid translucently on image. Before embedding, speech is compressed using Linear Predictive Coding (LPC) and Gabor face is created from face biometric trait. All three watermarks Gabor face, LPC coefficients and offline signature are the biometric characteristics of the owner and hence they are highly related with copyright holder. The proposed scheme is robust enough, Gabor face and LPC coefficients can be extracted from the signature marked image or even from the tampered image from which signature is removed illegally or legally. As multiple watermarks are embedded at least one watermark survives under different attacks. It can find application for joint ownership or to address single ownership multiple times.

  10. Symplectic geometry spectrum regression for prediction of noisy time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hong-Bo; Dokos, Socrates; Sivakumar, Bellie; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2016-05-01

    We present the symplectic geometry spectrum regression (SGSR) technique as well as a regularized method based on SGSR for prediction of nonlinear time series. The main tool of analysis is the symplectic geometry spectrum analysis, which decomposes a time series into the sum of a small number of independent and interpretable components. The key to successful regularization is to damp higher order symplectic geometry spectrum components. The effectiveness of SGSR and its superiority over local approximation using ordinary least squares are demonstrated through prediction of two noisy synthetic chaotic time series (Lorenz and Rössler series), and then tested for prediction of three real-world data sets (Mississippi River flow data and electromyographic and mechanomyographic signal recorded from human body).

  11. Similarity estimators for irregular and age uncertain time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Rehfeld

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many datasets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel based cross correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011 and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013 against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF. We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60–55% (in the linear case to 53–42% (for the nonlinear processes of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time

  12. Detection of flood events in hydrological discharge time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seibert, S. P.; Ehret, U.

    2012-04-01

    The shortcomings of mean-squared-error (MSE) based distance metrics are well known (Beran 1999, Schaeffli & Gupta 2007) and the development of novel distance metrics (Pappenberger & Beven 2004, Ehret & Zehe 2011) and multi-criteria-approaches enjoy increasing popularity (Reusser 2009, Gupta et al. 2009). Nevertheless, the hydrological community still lacks metrics which identify and thus, allow signature based evaluations of hydrological discharge time series. Signature based information/evaluations are required wherever specific time series features, such as flood events, are of special concern. Calculation of event based runoff coefficients or precise knowledge on flood event characteristics (like onset or duration of rising limp or the volume of falling limp, etc.) are possible applications. The same applies for flood forecasting/simulation models. Directly comparing simulated and observed flood event features may reveal thorough insights into model dynamics. Compared to continuous space-and-time-aggregated distance metrics, event based evaluations may provide answers like the distributions of event characteristics or the percentage of the events which were actually reproduced by a hydrological model. It also may help to provide information on the simulation accuracy of small, medium and/or large events in terms of timing and magnitude. However, the number of approaches which expose time series features is small and their usage is limited to very specific questions (Merz & Blöschl 2009, Norbiato et al. 2009). We believe this is due to the following reasons: i) a generally accepted definition of the signature of interest is missing or difficult to obtain (in our case: what makes a flood event a flood event?) and/or ii) it is difficult to translate such a definition into a equation or (graphical) procedure which exposes the feature of interest in the discharge time series. We reviewed approaches which detect event starts and/or ends in hydrological discharge time

  13. Wavelet matrix transform for time-series similarity measurement

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU Zhi-kun; XU Fei; GUI Wei-hua; YANG Chun-hua

    2009-01-01

    A time-series similarity measurement method based on wavelet and matrix transform was proposed, and its anti-noise ability, sensitivity and accuracy were discussed. The time-series sequences were compressed into wavelet subspace, and sample feature vector and orthogonal basics of sample time-series sequences were obtained by K-L transform. Then the inner product transform was carried out to project analyzed time-series sequence into orthogonal basics to gain analyzed feature vectors. The similarity was calculated between sample feature vector and analyzed feature vector by the Euclid distance. Taking fault wave of power electronic devices for example, the experimental results show that the proposed method has low dimension of feature vector, the anti-noise ability of proposed method is 30 times as large as that of plain wavelet method, the sensitivity of proposed method is 1/3 as large as that of plain wavelet method, and the accuracy of proposed method is higher than that of the wavelet singular value decomposition method. The proposed method can be applied in similarity matching and indexing for lager time series databases.

  14. Discovering shared and individual latent structure in multiple time series

    CERN Document Server

    Saria, Suchi; Penn, Anna

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a nonparametric Bayesian method for exploratory data analysis and feature construction in continuous time series. Our method focuses on understanding shared features in a set of time series that exhibit significant individual variability. Our method builds on the framework of latent Diricihlet allocation (LDA) and its extension to hierarchical Dirichlet processes, which allows us to characterize each series as switching between latent ``topics'', where each topic is characterized as a distribution over ``words'' that specify the series dynamics. However, unlike standard applications of LDA, we discover the words as we learn the model. We apply this model to the task of tracking the physiological signals of premature infants; our model obtains clinically significant insights as well as useful features for supervised learning tasks.

  15. Forecasting Compositional Time Series: A State Space Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Ralph D Snyder; J. Keith Ord; Anne B. Koehler; Keith R. McLaren; Adrian Beaumont

    2015-01-01

    A method is proposed for forecasting composite time series such as the market shares for multiple brands. Its novel feature is that it relies on multi-series adaptations of exponential smoothing combined with the log-ratio transformation for the conversion of proportions onto the real line. It is designed to produce forecasts that are both non-negative and sum to one; are invariant to the choice of the base series in the log-ratio transformation; recognized and exploit features such as serial...

  16. Arbitrage, market definition and monitoring a time series approach

    OpenAIRE

    Burke, S.; Hunter, J

    2012-01-01

    This article considers the application to regional price data of time series methods to test stationarity, multivariate cointegration and exogeneity. The discovery of stationary price differentials in a bivariate setting implies that the series are rendered stationary by capturing a common trend and we observe through this mechanism long-run arbitrage. This is indicative of a broader market definition and efficiency. The problem is considered in relation to more than 700 weekly data points on...

  17. Detecting structural breaks in time series via genetic algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doerr, Benjamin; Fischer, Paul; Hilbert, Astrid;

    2016-01-01

    Detecting structural breaks is an essential task for the statistical analysis of time series, for example, for fitting parametric models to it. In short, structural breaks are points in time at which the behaviour of the time series substantially changes. Typically, no solid background knowledge of...... crossover and mutation operations for this problem, we conduct extensive experiments to determine good choices for the parameters and operators of the genetic algorithm. One surprising observation is that use of uniform and one-point crossover together gave significantly better results than using either...... crossover operator alone. Moreover, we present a specific fitness function which exploits the sparse structure of the break points and which can be evaluated particularly efficiently. The experiments on artificial and real-world time series show that the resulting algorithm detects break points with high...

  18. Weighted statistical parameters for irregularly sampled time series

    CERN Document Server

    Rimoldini, Lorenzo

    2014-01-01

    Unevenly spaced time series are common in astronomy because of the day-night cycle, weather conditions, dependence on the source position in the sky, allocated telescope time, corrupt measurements, for example, or be inherent to the scanning law of satellites like Hipparcos and the forthcoming Gaia. This paper aims at improving the accuracy of common statistical parameters for the characterization of irregularly sampled signals. The uneven representation of time series, often including clumps of measurements and gaps with no data, can severely disrupt the values of estimators. A weighting scheme adapting to the sampling density and noise level of the signal is formulated. Its application to time series from the Hipparcos periodic catalogue led to significant improvements in the overall accuracy and precision of the estimators with respect to the unweighted counterparts and those weighted by inverse-squared uncertainties. Automated classification procedures employing statistical parameters weighted by the sugg...

  19. Rules extraction in short memory time series using genetic algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fong, L. Y.; Szeto, K. Y.

    2001-04-01

    Data mining is performed using genetic algorithm on artificially generated time series data with short memory. The extraction of rules from a training set and the subsequent testing of these rules provide a basis for the predictions on the test set. The artificial time series are generated using the inverse whitening transformation, and the correlation function has an exponential form with given time constant indicative of short memory. A vector quantization technique is employed to classify the daily rate of return of this artificial time series into four categories. A simple genetic algorithm based on a fixed format of rules is introduced to do the forecasting. Comparing to the benchmark tests with random walk and random guess, genetic algorithms yield substantially better prediction rates, between 50% to 60%. This is an improvement compared with the 47% for random walk prediction and 25% for random guessing method.

  20. A refined fuzzy time series model for stock market forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jilani, Tahseen Ahmed; Burney, Syed Muhammad Aqil

    2008-05-01

    Time series models have been used to make predictions of stock prices, academic enrollments, weather, road accident casualties, etc. In this paper we present a simple time-variant fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method uses heuristic approach to define frequency-density-based partitions of the universe of discourse. We have proposed a fuzzy metric to use the frequency-density-based partitioning. The proposed fuzzy metric also uses a trend predictor to calculate the forecast. The new method is applied for forecasting TAIEX and enrollments’ forecasting of the University of Alabama. It is shown that the proposed method work with higher accuracy as compared to other fuzzy time series methods developed for forecasting TAIEX and enrollments of the University of Alabama.

  1. Generalized Dynamic Factor Models for Mixed-Measurement Time Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Kai; Dunson, David B

    2014-02-12

    In this article, we propose generalized Bayesian dynamic factor models for jointly modeling mixed-measurement time series. The framework allows mixed-scale measurements associated with each time series, with different measurements having different distributions in the exponential family conditionally on time-varying latent factor(s). Efficient Bayesian computational algorithms are developed for posterior inference on both the latent factors and model parameters, based on a Metropolis Hastings algorithm with adaptive proposals. The algorithm relies on a Greedy Density Kernel Approximation (GDKA) and parameter expansion with latent factor normalization. We tested the framework and algorithms in simulated studies and applied them to the analysis of intertwined credit and recovery risk for Moody's rated firms from 1982-2008, illustrating the importance of jointly modeling mixed-measurement time series. The article has supplemental materials available online. PMID:24791133

  2. Biometric Communication Research for Television.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, M. F.

    Biometric communication research is defined as research dealing with the information impact of a film or television show, photographic picture, painting, exhibition, display, or any literary or functional texts or verbal stimuli on human beings, both as individuals and in groups (mass audiences). Biometric communication research consists of a…

  3. Biometrics — Developments and Potential

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meuwly, Didier; Veldhuis, Raymond

    2014-01-01

    This article describes the use of biometric technology in forensic science, for the development of new methods and tools, improving the current forensic biometric applications, and allowing for the creation of new ones. The article begins with a definition and a summary of the development of this fi

  4. Embedded System for ECG Biometrics

    OpenAIRE

    Matos, André Cigarro; Lourenço, André; Nascimento, José M. P.

    2013-01-01

    Comunication in Internationa Conference with Peer Review First International Congress on Cardiovasular Technologies - CARDIOTECHNIX, Vilamoura, Portugal, 2013 Biometric recognition has recently emerged as part of applications where the privacy of the information is crucial, as in the health care field. This paper presents an embedded system for individual recognition based on Electrocardiographic (ECG) biometrics. The proposed system implements a real...

  5. Minimum entropy density method for the time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jeong Won; Park, Joongwoo Brian; Jo, Hang-Hyun; Yang, Jae-Suk; Moon, Hie-Tae

    2009-01-01

    The entropy density is an intuitive and powerful concept to study the complicated nonlinear processes derived from physical systems. We develop the minimum entropy density method (MEDM) to detect the structure scale of a given time series, which is defined as the scale in which the uncertainty is minimized, hence the pattern is revealed most. The MEDM is applied to the financial time series of Standard and Poor’s 500 index from February 1983 to April 2006. Then the temporal behavior of structure scale is obtained and analyzed in relation to the information delivery time and efficient market hypothesis.

  6. Multiscale entropy analysis of complex physiologic time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Madalena; Goldberger, Ary L; Peng, C-K

    2002-08-01

    There has been considerable interest in quantifying the complexity of physiologic time series, such as heart rate. However, traditional algorithms indicate higher complexity for certain pathologic processes associated with random outputs than for healthy dynamics exhibiting long-range correlations. This paradox may be due to the fact that conventional algorithms fail to account for the multiple time scales inherent in healthy physiologic dynamics. We introduce a method to calculate multiscale entropy (MSE) for complex time series. We find that MSE robustly separates healthy and pathologic groups and consistently yields higher values for simulated long-range correlated noise compared to uncorrelated noise. PMID:12190613

  7. Wavelet analysis for non-stationary, nonlinear time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulte, Justin A.

    2016-08-01

    Methods for detecting and quantifying nonlinearities in nonstationary time series are introduced and developed. In particular, higher-order wavelet analysis was applied to an ideal time series and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) time series. Multiple-testing problems inherent in wavelet analysis were addressed by controlling the false discovery rate. A new local autobicoherence spectrum facilitated the detection of local nonlinearities and the quantification of cycle geometry. The local autobicoherence spectrum of the QBO time series showed that the QBO time series contained a mode with a period of 28 months that was phase coupled to a harmonic with a period of 14 months. An additional nonlinearly interacting triad was found among modes with periods of 10, 16 and 26 months. Local biphase spectra determined that the nonlinear interactions were not quadratic and that the effect of the nonlinearities was to produce non-smoothly varying oscillations. The oscillations were found to be skewed so that negative QBO regimes were preferred, and also asymmetric in the sense that phase transitions between the easterly and westerly phases occurred more rapidly than those from westerly to easterly regimes.

  8. The Photoplethismographic Signal Processed with Nonlinear Time Series Analysis Tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finger photoplethismography (PPG) signals were submitted to nonlinear time series analysis. The applied analytical techniques were: (i) High degree polynomial fitting for baseline estimation; (ii) FFT analysis for estimating power spectra; (iii) fractal dimension estimation via the Higuchi's time-domain method, and (iv) kernel nonparametric estimation for reconstructing noise free-attractors and also for estimating signal's stochastic components

  9. Sparse time series chain graphical models for reconstructing genetic networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abegaz, Fentaw; Wit, Ernst

    2013-01-01

    We propose a sparse high-dimensional time series chain graphical model for reconstructing genetic networks from gene expression data parametrized by a precision matrix and autoregressive coefficient matrix. We consider the time steps as blocks or chains. The proposed approach explores patterns of co

  10. Embedded system for individual recognition based on ECG biometrics

    OpenAIRE

    Matos, André Cigarro; Lourenço, André Ribeiro; Nascimento, José M. P.

    2014-01-01

    Biometric recognition is emerging has an alternative solution for applications where the privacy of the information is crucial. This paper presents an embedded biometric recognition system based on the Electrocardiographic signals (ECG) for individual identification and authentication. The proposed system implements a real-time state-of-the-art recognition algorithm, which extracts information from the frequency domain. The system is based on a ARM Cortex 4. Preliminary results show ...

  11. A bimodal biometric identification system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laghari, Mohammad S.; Khuwaja, Gulzar A.

    2013-03-01

    Biometrics consists of methods for uniquely recognizing humans based upon one or more intrinsic physical or behavioral traits. Physicals are related to the shape of the body. Behavioral are related to the behavior of a person. However, biometric authentication systems suffer from imprecision and difficulty in person recognition due to a number of reasons and no single biometrics is expected to effectively satisfy the requirements of all verification and/or identification applications. Bimodal biometric systems are expected to be more reliable due to the presence of two pieces of evidence and also be able to meet the severe performance requirements imposed by various applications. This paper presents a neural network based bimodal biometric identification system by using human face and handwritten signature features.

  12. AMP: a new time-frequency feature extraction method for intermittent time-series data

    OpenAIRE

    Barrack, Duncan; Goulding, James; Hopcraft, Keith; Preston, Simon; Smith, Gavin

    2015-01-01

    The characterisation of time-series data via their most salient features is extremely important in a range of machine learning task, not least of all with regards to classification and clustering. While there exist many feature extraction techniques suitable for non-intermittent time-series data, these approaches are not always appropriate for intermittent time-series data, where intermittency is characterized by constant values for large periods of time punctuated by sharp and transient incr...

  13. Real Time Clustering of Time Series Using Triangular Potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aldo Pacchiano

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Motivated by the problem of computing investment portfolio weightin gs we investigate various methods of clustering as alternatives to traditional mean-v ariance approaches. Such methods can have significant benefits from a practical point of view since they remove the need to invert a sample covariance matrix, which can suffer from estimation error and will almost certainly be non-stationary. The general idea is to find groups of assets w hich share similar return characteristics over time and treat each group as a singl e composite asset. We then apply inverse volatility weightings to these new composite assets. In the course of our investigation we devise a method of clustering based on triangular potentials and we present as sociated theoretical results as well as various examples based on synthetic data.

  14. Time Series Outlier Detection Based on Sliding Window Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yufeng Yu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to detect outliers in hydrological time series data for improving data quality and decision-making quality related to design, operation, and management of water resources, this research develops a time series outlier detection method for hydrologic data that can be used to identify data that deviate from historical patterns. The method first built a forecasting model on the history data and then used it to predict future values. Anomalies are assumed to take place if the observed values fall outside a given prediction confidence interval (PCI, which can be calculated by the predicted value and confidence coefficient. The use of PCI as threshold is mainly on the fact that it considers the uncertainty in the data series parameters in the forecasting model to address the suitable threshold selection problem. The method performs fast, incremental evaluation of data as it becomes available, scales to large quantities of data, and requires no preclassification of anomalies. Experiments with different hydrologic real-world time series showed that the proposed methods are fast and correctly identify abnormal data and can be used for hydrologic time series analysis.

  15. Entropy measure of stepwise component in GPS time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyubushin, A. A.; Yakovlev, P. V.

    2016-01-01

    A new method for estimating the stepwise component in the time series is suggested. The method is based on the application of a pseudo-derivative. The advantage of this method lies in the simplicity of its practical implementation compared to the more common methods for identifying the peculiarities in the time series against the noise. The need for automatic detection of the jumps in the noised signal and for introducing a quantitative measure of a stepwise behavior of the signal arises in the problems of the GPS time series analysis. The interest in the jumps in the mean level of the GPS signal is associated with the fact that they may reflect the typical earthquakes or the so-called silent earthquakes. In this paper, we offer the criteria for quantifying the degree of the stepwise behavior of the noised time series. These criteria are based on calculating the entropy for the auxiliary series of averaged stepwise approximations, which are constructed with the use of pseudo-derivatives.

  16. Multi-Scale Dissemination of Time Series Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Qingsong; Zhou, Yongluan; Su, Li

    2013-01-01

    , which is an abstract indicator for both the physical limits and the amount of data that the subscriber would like to handle. To handle this problem, we propose a system framework for multi-scale time series data dissemination that employs a typical tree-based dissemination network and existing time......In this paper, we consider the problem of continuous dissemination of time series data, such as sensor measurements, to a large number of subscribers. These subscribers fall into multiple subscription levels, where each subscription level is specified by the bandwidth constraint of a subscriber......-series compression models. Due to the bandwidth limits regarding to potentially sheer speed of data, it is inevitable to compress and re-compress data along the dissemination paths according to the subscription level of each node. Compression would caused the accuracy loss of data, thus we devise several algorithms...

  17. Grammar-based feature generation for time-series prediction

    CERN Document Server

    De Silva, Anthony Mihirana

    2015-01-01

    This book proposes a novel approach for time-series prediction using machine learning techniques with automatic feature generation. Application of machine learning techniques to predict time-series continues to attract considerable attention due to the difficulty of the prediction problems compounded by the non-linear and non-stationary nature of the real world time-series. The performance of machine learning techniques, among other things, depends on suitable engineering of features. This book proposes a systematic way for generating suitable features using context-free grammar. A number of feature selection criteria are investigated and a hybrid feature generation and selection algorithm using grammatical evolution is proposed. The book contains graphical illustrations to explain the feature generation process. The proposed approaches are demonstrated by predicting the closing price of major stock market indices, peak electricity load and net hourly foreign exchange client trade volume. The proposed method ...

  18. Increment Entropy as a Measure of Complexity for Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaofeng Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Entropy has been a common index to quantify the complexity of time series in a variety of fields. Here, we introduce an increment entropy to measure the complexity of time series in which each increment is mapped onto a word of two letters, one corresponding to the sign and the other corresponding to the magnitude. Increment entropy (IncrEn is defined as the Shannon entropy of the words. Simulations on synthetic data and tests on epileptic electroencephalogram (EEG signals demonstrate its ability of detecting abrupt changes, regardless of the energetic (e.g., spikes or bursts or structural changes. The computation of IncrEn does not make any assumption on time series, and it can be applicable to arbitrary real-world data.

  19. Detection of "noisy" chaos in a time series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chon, K H; Kanters, J K; Cohen, R J; Holstein-Rathlou, N H

    Time series from biological system often displays fluctuations in the measured variables. Much effort has been directed at determining whether this variability reflects deterministic chaos, or whether it is merely "noise". The output from most biological systems is probably the result of both the...... internal dynamics of the systems, and the input to the system from the surroundings. This implies that the system should be viewed as a mixed system with both stochastic and deterministic components. We present a method that appears to be useful in deciding whether determinism is present in a time series......, and if this determinism has chaotic attributes. The method relies on fitting a nonlinear autoregressive model to the time series followed by an estimation of the characteristic exponents of the model over the observed probability distribution of states for the system. The method is tested by computer...

  20. Increment entropy as a measure of complexity for time series

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Xiaofeng; Xu, Ning; Xue, Jianru

    2015-01-01

    Entropy has been a common index to quantify the complexity of time series in a variety of fields. Here, we introduce increment entropy to measure the complexity of time series in which each increment is mapped into a word of two letters, one letter corresponding to direction and the other corresponding to magnitude. The Shannon entropy of the words is termed as increment entropy (IncrEn). Simulations on synthetic data and tests on epileptic EEG signals have demonstrated its ability of detecting the abrupt change, regardless of energetic (e.g. spikes or bursts) or structural changes. The computation of IncrEn does not make any assumption on time series and it can be applicable to arbitrary real-world data.

  1. Feature-preserving interpolation and filtering of environmental time series

    CERN Document Server

    Mariethoz, Gregoire; Jougnot, Damien; Rezaee, Hassan

    2015-01-01

    We propose a method for filling gaps and removing interferences in time series for applications involving continuous monitoring of environmental variables. The approach is non-parametric and based on an iterative pattern-matching between the affected and the valid parts of the time series. It considers several variables jointly in the pattern matching process and allows preserving linear or non-linear dependences between variables. The uncertainty in the reconstructed time series is quantified through multiple realizations. The method is tested on self-potential data that are affected by strong interferences as well as data gaps, and the results show that our approach allows reproducing the spectral features of the original signal. Even in the presence of intense signal perturbations, it significantly improves the signal and corrects bias introduced by asymmetrical interferences. Potential applications are wide-ranging, including geophysics, meteorology and hydrology.

  2. Learning of time series through neuron-to-neuron instruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A model neuron with delayline feedback connections can learn a time series generated by another model neuron. It has been known that some student neurons that have completed such learning under the instruction of a teacher's quasi-periodic sequence mimic the teacher's time series over a long interval, even after instruction has ceased. We found that in addition to such faithful students, there are unfaithful students whose time series eventually diverge exponentially from that of the teacher. In order to understand the circumstances that allow for such a variety of students, the orbit dimension was estimated numerically. The quasi-periodic orbits in question were found to be confined in spaces with dimensions significantly smaller than that of the full phase space

  3. Asymptotics for Nonlinear Transformations of Fractionally Integrated Time Series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The asymptotic theory for nonlinear transformations of fractionally integrated time series is developed. By the use of fractional Occupation Times Formula, various nonlinear functions of fractionally integrated series such as ARFIMA time series are studied, and the asymptotic distributions of the sample moments of such functions are obtained and analyzed. The transformations considered in this paper includes a variety of functions such as regular functions, integrable functions and asymptotically homogeneous functions that are often used in practical nonlinear econometric analysis. It is shown that the asymptotic theory of nonlinear transformations of original and normalized fractionally integrated processes is different from that of fractionally integrated processes, but is similar to the asymptotic theory of nonlinear transformations of integrated processes.

  4. Reconstruction of tritium time series in precipitation of Beijing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Human nuclear activities, especially intensive nuclear tests during the 1960s in the world, caused atmospheric tritium concentration increasing significantly, which provided convenient condition for global water cycle research, especially for tracer dating research of groundwater. However, due to the layout of monitoring sites and other reasons, most parts of the world are lack of monitoring data of tritium concentration in precipitation, which brought difficulties in determining the input function which is essential for groundwater tracer dating technique. Based on the analysis of principles and applicability of present reconstruction methods of tritium time series, the tritium time series in precipitation in Beijing during 1953-2002 was reconstructed using combined methods, including Guanbingjun method, trend surface analysis method, trigonometric interpolation method and correlation method. Furthermore, the best method and the best time series curve were elected through comparison of results of different methods. (authors)

  5. Time series analysis in astronomy: Limits and potentialities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vio, R.; Kristensen, N.R.; Madsen, Henrik; Wamsteker, W.

    2005-01-01

    priori physical model there are not many possibilities to obtain interpretable results. For this reason, the practice to develop more and more sophisticated statistical methods of time series analysis is not productive. Only techniques of data analysis developed in a specific physical context can be......In this paper we consider the problem of the limits concerning the physical information that can be extracted from the analysis of one or more time series ( light curves) typical of astrophysical objects. On the basis of theoretical considerations and numerical simulations, we show that with no a...... expected to provide useful results. The field of stochastic dynamics appears to be an interesting framework for such an approach. In particular, it is shown that modelling the experimental time series by means of the stochastic differential equations (SDE) represents a valuable tool of analysis. For...

  6. The time series forecasting: from the aspect of network

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, S; Hu, Y; Liu, Q; Deng, Y

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting can estimate the statement of events according to the historical data and it is considerably important in many disciplines. At present, time series models have been utilized to solve forecasting problems in various domains. In general, researchers use curve fitting and parameter estimation methods (moment estimation, maximum likelihood estimation and least square method) to forecast. In this paper, a new sight is given to the forecasting and a completely different method is proposed to forecast time series. Inspired by the visibility graph and link prediction, this letter converts time series into network and then finds the nodes which are mostly likelihood to link with the predicted node. Finally, the predicted value will be obtained according to the state of the link. The TAIEX data set is used in the case study to illustrate that the proposed method is effectiveness. Compared with ARIMA model, the proposed shows a good forecasting performance when there is a small amount of data.

  7. A multidisciplinary database for geophysical time series management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montalto, P.; Aliotta, M.; Cassisi, C.; Prestifilippo, M.; Cannata, A.

    2013-12-01

    The variables collected by a sensor network constitute a heterogeneous data source that needs to be properly organized in order to be used in research and geophysical monitoring. With the time series term we refer to a set of observations of a given phenomenon acquired sequentially in time. When the time intervals are equally spaced one speaks of period or sampling frequency. Our work describes in detail a possible methodology for storage and management of time series using a specific data structure. We designed a framework, hereinafter called TSDSystem (Time Series Database System), in order to acquire time series from different data sources and standardize them within a relational database. The operation of standardization provides the ability to perform operations, such as query and visualization, of many measures synchronizing them using a common time scale. The proposed architecture follows a multiple layer paradigm (Loaders layer, Database layer and Business Logic layer). Each layer is specialized in performing particular operations for the reorganization and archiving of data from different sources such as ASCII, Excel, ODBC (Open DataBase Connectivity), file accessible from the Internet (web pages, XML). In particular, the loader layer performs a security check of the working status of each running software through an heartbeat system, in order to automate the discovery of acquisition issues and other warning conditions. Although our system has to manage huge amounts of data, performance is guaranteed by using a smart partitioning table strategy, that keeps balanced the percentage of data stored in each database table. TSDSystem also contains modules for the visualization of acquired data, that provide the possibility to query different time series on a specified time range, or follow the realtime signal acquisition, according to a data access policy from the users.

  8. Fuzzy Time Series: An Application to Tourism Demand Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad H. Lee

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Forecasting is very important in many types of organizations since predictions of future events must be incorporated into the decision-making process. In the case of tourism demand, better forecast would help directors and investors make operational, tactical and strategic decisions. Besides that, government bodies need accurate tourism demand forecasts to plan required tourism infrastructures, such as accommodation site planning and transportation development, among other needs. There are many types of forecasting methods. Generally, time series forecasting can be divided into classical method and modern methods. Recent studies show that the newer and more advanced forecasting techniques tend to result in improved forecast accuracy, but no clear evidence shows that any one model can consistently outperform other models in the forecasting competition. Approach: In this study, the performance of forecasting between classical methods (Box-Jenkins methods Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA, Holt Winters and time series regression and modern methods (fuzzy time series has been compared by using data of tourist arrivals to Bali and Soekarno-Hatta gate in Indonesia as case study. Results: The empirical results show that modern methods give more accurate forecasts compare to classical methods. Chens fuzzy time series method outperforms all the classical methods and others more advance fuzzy time series methods. We also found that the performance of fuzzy time series methods can be improve by using transformed data. Conclusion: It is found that the best method to forecast the tourist arrivals to Bali and Soekarno-Hatta was to be the FTS i.e., method after using data transformation. Although this method known to be the simplest or conventional methods of FTS, yet this result should not be odd since several previous studies also have shown that simple method could outperform more advance or complicated methods.

  9. Multifractal regime detecting method for financial time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • A multifractal regime detecting method (MRDM) introduced based on generalized Hurst exponent. • Multifractal regimes in the KOSPI from 1990 through 2012 are identified. • Surrogated tests are performed for the validation of MRDM. - Abstract: We focus on time varying multifractality in time series and introduce a multifractal regime detecting method (MRDM) adopting a nonparametric statistical test for multifractality based on generalized Hurst exponent (GHE). MRDM is a practical method to discriminate multifractal regimes in a time series of any length using a moving time window approach with the adjustable time window size and the moving interval. MRDM is applied to simulations consisting of both multifractal and monofractal regimes, and the results confirm its validity. Using MRDM, we identify multifractal regimes in the time series of Korea composite stock price index (KOSPI) from 1990 through 2012 and observe the distinct stylized facts of the KOSPI return values in multifractal regimes such as the heavy tail distribution, high kurtosis, and the long memory in volatility. Surrogate tests based on improved amplitude adjusted Fourier transformation (IAAFT) algorithm, normal distribution, and generalized student t distribution are performed for the validation of MDRM, and the probable causes of multifractality in the KOSPI series are discussed

  10. Change detection in a time series of polarimetric SAR images

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skriver, Henning; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Conradsen, Knut

    a certain point can be used to detect at which points changes occur in the time series. [1] T. W. Anderson, An Introduction to Multivariate Statistical Analysis, John Wiley, New York, third edition, 2003. [2] K. Conradsen, A. A. Nielsen, J. Schou, and H. Skriver, “A test statistic in the complex...... to the complex Wishart distribution and demonstrate its application to change detection in truly multi-temporal, polarimetric SAR data. Results will be shown that demonstrate the difference between applying to time series of polarimetric SAR images, pairwise comparisons or the new omnibus test...

  11. Cross-correlation between time series of vehicles and passengers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zebende, G. F.; Filho, A. Machado

    2009-12-01

    We study in this paper a cross-correlation between time series of vehicles and passengers collected in the ferry-boat system (sea route that connects the city of Salvador and Itaparica island, Bahia, Brazil), this study is based on the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) method. The DCCA method is designed to investigate power-law cross correlations between different simultaneously recorded time series in the presence of nonstationarity. Here in this paper we show that is possible to discriminate cross-correlation between vehicles and passengers and also identify seasonal components.

  12. Time series analysis of banking share returns in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunari Saejiang

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available An index is constructed based on an equally weighted portfolio of seven major banking shares in Thailand. A GARCH (1,1 model is fitted to the time series of returns on this index for successive trading day from January 1994 to December 1999. During this period the logarithm of the volatility is well fitted by a stationary time series model comprising an additive combination of a single sinusoidal function with a period of six years, and an ARMA (1,1 model.

  13. Nonlinear Time Series Forecast Using Radial Basis Function Neural Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHENGXin; CHENTian-Lun

    2003-01-01

    In the research of using Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBF NN) forecasting nonlinear time series, we investigate how the different clusterings affect the process of learning and forecasting. We find that k-means clustering is very suitable. In order to increase the precision we introduce a nonlinear feedback term to escape from the local minima of energy, then we use the model to forecast the nonlinear time series which are produced by Mackey-Glass equation and stocks. By selecting the k-means clustering and the suitable feedback term, much better forecasting results are obtained.

  14. Application of nonlinear time series models to driven systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunter, N.F. Jr.

    1990-01-01

    In our laboratory we have been engaged in an effort to model nonlinear systems using time series methods. Our objectives have been, first, to understand how the time series response of a nonlinear system unfolds as a function of the underlying state variables, second, to model the evolution of the state variables, and finally, to predict nonlinear system responses. We hope to address the relationship between model parameters and system parameters in the near future. Control of nonlinear systems based on experimentally derived parameters is also a planned topic of future research. 28 refs., 15 figs., 2 tabs.

  15. Mining Rules from Electrical Load Time Series Data Set

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The mining of the rules from the electrical load time series data which are collected from the EMS (Energy Management System) is discussed. The data from the EMS are too huge and sophisticated to be understood and used by the power system engineer, while useful information is hidden in the electrical load data. The authors discuss the use of fuzzy linguistic summary as data mining method to induce the rules from the electrical load time series. The data preprocessing techniques are also discussed in the paper.

  16. Scaling analysis of multi-variate intermittent time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitt, Robert; Kalda, Jaan

    2005-08-01

    The scaling properties of the time series of asset prices and trading volumes of stock markets are analysed. It is shown that similar to the asset prices, the trading volume data obey multi-scaling length-distribution of low-variability periods. In the case of asset prices, such scaling behaviour can be used for risk forecasts: the probability of observing next day a large price movement is (super-universally) inversely proportional to the length of the ongoing low-variability period. Finally, a method is devised for a multi-factor scaling analysis. We apply the simplest, two-factor model to equity index and trading volume time series.

  17. Characterizing Weak Chaos using Time Series of Lyapunov Exponents

    OpenAIRE

    da Silva, R. M.; Manchein, C.; Beims, M. W.; Altmann, E. G.

    2015-01-01

    We investigate chaos in mixed-phase-space Hamiltonian systems using time series of the finite- time Lyapunov exponents. The methodology we propose uses the number of Lyapunov exponents close to zero to define regimes of ordered (stickiness), semi-ordered (or semi-chaotic), and strongly chaotic motion. The dynamics is then investigated looking at the consecutive time spent in each regime, the transition between different regimes, and the regions in the phase-space associated to them. Applying ...

  18. On the estimation of correlations for irregularly spaced time series

    OpenAIRE

    Andersson, Jonas

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, the problem of calculating covariances and correlations between time series which are observed irregularly and at different points in time, is treated. The problem of dependence between the time stamp process and the return process is especially highlighted and the solution to this problem for a special case is given. Furthermore, estimators based on different interpolation methods are investigated. The covariances are in turn used to estimate a simple regression on such data. ...

  19. The biometric recognition on contactless multi-spectrum finger images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Wenxiong; Chen, Xiaopeng; Wu, Qiuxia

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a novel multimodal biometric system based on contactless multi-spectrum finger images, which aims to deal with the limitations of unimodal biometrics. The chief merits of the system are the richness of the permissible texture and the ease of data access. We constructed a multi-spectrum instrument to simultaneously acquire three different types of biometrics from a finger: contactless fingerprint, finger vein, and knuckleprint. On the basis of the samples with these characteristics, a moderate database was built for the evaluation of our system. Considering the real-time requirements and the respective characteristics of the three biometrics, the block local binary patterns algorithm was used to extract features and match for the fingerprints and finger veins, while the Oriented FAST and Rotated BRIEF algorithm was applied for knuckleprints. Finally, score-level fusion was performed on the matching results from the aforementioned three types of biometrics. The experiments showed that our proposed multimodal biometric recognition system achieves an equal error rate of 0.109%, which is 88.9%, 94.6%, and 89.7% lower than the individual fingerprint, knuckleprint, and finger vein recognitions, respectively. Nevertheless, our proposed system also satisfies the real-time requirements of the applications.

  20. Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations

    CERN Document Server

    Scargle, Jeffrey D; Jackson, Brad; Chiang, James

    2012-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it - an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks (Scargle 1998) - that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piecewise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multi-variate time series data, analysis of vari...

  1. A Novel Approach for Nonstationary Time Series Analysis with Time-Invariant Correlation Coefficient

    OpenAIRE

    Chengrui Liu; Zhihua Wang; Huimin Fu; Yongbo Zhang

    2014-01-01

    We will concentrate on the modeling and analysis of a class of nonstationary time series, called correlation coefficient stationary series, which commonly exists in practical engineering. First, the concept and scope of correlation coefficient stationary series are discussed to get a better understanding. Second, a theorem is proposed to determine standard deviation function for correlation coefficient stationary series. Third, we propose a moving multiple-point average method to determine th...

  2. Stochastic generation of hourly wind speed time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the present study hourly wind speed data of Kuala Terengganu in Peninsular Malaysia are simulated by using transition matrix approach of Markovian process. The wind speed time series is divided into various states based on certain criteria. The next wind speed states are selected based on the previous states. The cumulative probability transition matrix has been formed in which each row ends with 1. Using the uniform random numbers between 0 and 1, a series of future states is generated. These states have been converted to the corresponding wind speed values using another uniform random number generator. The accuracy of the model has been determined by comparing the statistical characteristics such as average, standard deviation, root mean square error, probability density function and autocorrelation function of the generated data to those of the original data. The generated wind speed time series data is capable to preserve the wind speed characteristics of the observed data

  3. Learning time series evolution by unsupervised extraction of correlations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As a consequence, we are able to model chaotic and nonchaotic time series. Furthermore, one critical point in modeling time series is the determination of the dimension of the embedding vector used, i.e., the number of components of the past that are needed to predict the future. With this method we can detect the embedding dimension by extracting the influence of the past on the future, i.e., the correlation of remote past and future. Optimal embedding dimensions are obtained for the Henon map and the Mackey-Glass series. When noisy data corrupted by colored noise are used, a model is still possible. The noise will then be decorrelated by the network. In the case of modeling a chemical reaction, the most natural architecture that conserves the volume is a symplectic network which describes a system that conserves the entropy and therefore the transmitted information

  4. Turbulent-Like Behavior of Seismic Time Series

    CERN Document Server

    Manshour, P; Sahimi, Muhammad; Peinke, J; Pacheco, Amalio F; Tabar, M Reza Rahimi

    2009-01-01

    We report on a novel stochastic analysis of seismic time series for the Earth's vertical velocity, by using methods originally developed for complex hierarchical systems, and in particular for turbulent flows. Analysis of the fluctuations of the detrended increments of the series reveals a pronounced change of the shapes of the probability density functions (PDF) of the series' increments. Before and close to an earthquake the shape of the PDF and the long-range correlation in the increments both manifest significant changes. For a moderate or large-size earthquake the typical time at which the PDF undergoes the transition from a Gaussian to a non-Gaussian is about 5-10 hours. Thus, the transition represents a new precursor for detecting such earthquakes.

  5. A multiscale statistical model for time series forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, W.; Pollak, I.

    2007-02-01

    We propose a stochastic grammar model for random-walk-like time series that has features at several temporal scales. We use a tree structure to model these multiscale features. The inside-outside algorithm is used to estimate the model parameters. We develop an algorithm to forecast the sign of the first difference of a time series. We illustrate the algorithm using log-price series of several stocks and compare with linear prediction and a neural network approach. We furthermore illustrate our algorithm using synthetic data and show that it significantly outperforms both the linear predictor and the neural network. The construction of our synthetic data indicates what types of signals our algorithm is well suited for.

  6. Segmentation of time series with long-range fractal correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernaola-Galván, P.; Oliver, J.L.; Hackenberg, M.; Coronado, A.V.; Ivanov, P.Ch.; Carpena, P.

    2012-01-01

    Segmentation is a standard method of data analysis to identify change-points dividing a nonstationary time series into homogeneous segments. However, for long-range fractal correlated series, most of the segmentation techniques detect spurious change-points which are simply due to the heterogeneities induced by the correlations and not to real nonstationarities. To avoid this oversegmentation, we present a segmentation algorithm which takes as a reference for homogeneity, instead of a random i.i.d. series, a correlated series modeled by a fractional noise with the same degree of correlations as the series to be segmented. We apply our algorithm to artificial series with long-range correlations and show that it systematically detects only the change-points produced by real nonstationarities and not those created by the correlations of the signal. Further, we apply the method to the sequence of the long arm of human chromosome 21, which is known to have long-range fractal correlations. We obtain only three segments that clearly correspond to the three regions of different G + C composition revealed by means of a multi-scale wavelet plot. Similar results have been obtained when segmenting all human chromosome sequences, showing the existence of previously unknown huge compositional superstructures in the human genome. PMID:23645997

  7. Comparative and Analysis of Biometric Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manivannan,

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Biometric as the science of recognizing an individual based on his or her physical or behavioral traits, it is beginning to gain acceptance as a legitimate method for determining an individual identity.Biometric have now been deployed in various commercial, civilian, and national security applications. Biometric described overview of various biometric techniques and the need to be addressed form making biometric technology an effective tool for providing information security.

  8. Practical implementation of nonlinear time series methods The TISEAN package

    CERN Document Server

    Hegger, R; Schreiber, T; Hegger, Rainer; Kantz, Holger; Schreiber, Thomas

    1998-01-01

    Nonlinear time series analysis is becoming a more and more reliable tool for the study of complicated dynamics from measurements. The concept of low-dimensional chaos has proven to be fruitful in the understanding of many complex phenomena despite the fact that very few natural systems have actually been found to be low dimensional deterministic in the sense of the theory. In order to evaluate the long term usefulness of the nonlinear time series approach as inspired by chaos theory, it will be important that the corresponding methods become more widely accessible. This paper, while not a proper review on nonlinear time series analysis, tries to make a contribution to this process by describing the actual implementation of the algorithms, and their proper usage. Most of the methods require the choice of certain parameters for each specific time series application. We will try to give guidance in this respect. The scope and selection of topics in this article, as well as the implementational choices that have ...

  9. The application of the transfer entropy to gappy time series

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kulp, C.W. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Lycoming College, Williamsport, PA 17701 (United States)], E-mail: kulp@lycoming.edu; Tracy, E.R. [Department of Physics, The College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA 23187-8795 (United States)], E-mail: ertrac@wm.edu

    2009-03-23

    The application of the transfer entropy to gappy symbolic time series is discussed. Although the transfer entropy can fail to correctly identify the drive-response relationship, it is able to robustly detect phase relationships. Hence, it might still be of use in applications requiring the detection of changes in these relationships.

  10. The application of the transfer entropy to gappy time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The application of the transfer entropy to gappy symbolic time series is discussed. Although the transfer entropy can fail to correctly identify the drive-response relationship, it is able to robustly detect phase relationships. Hence, it might still be of use in applications requiring the detection of changes in these relationships

  11. Quality Quandaries- Time Series Model Selection and Parsimony

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisgaard, Søren; Kulahci, Murat

    2009-01-01

    Some of the issues involved in selecting adequate models for time series data are discussed using an example concerning the number of users of an Internet server. The process of selecting an appropriate model is subjective and requires experience and judgment. The authors believe an important...

  12. Time series analysis in astronomy: Limits and potentialities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vio, R.; Kristensen, N.R.; Madsen, Henrik;

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we consider the problem of the limits concerning the physical information that can be extracted from the analysis of one or more time series ( light curves) typical of astrophysical objects. On the basis of theoretical considerations and numerical simulations, we show that with no a...

  13. Long-memory time series theory and methods

    CERN Document Server

    Palma, Wilfredo

    2007-01-01

    Wilfredo Palma, PhD, is Chairman and Professor of Statistics in the Department of Statistics at Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Dr. Palma has published several refereed articles and has received over a dozen academic honors and awards. His research interests include time series analysis, prediction theory, state space systems, linear models, and econometrics.

  14. Application of bootstrap to detecting chaos in financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brzozowska-Rup, Katarzyna; Orłowski, Arkadiusz

    2004-12-01

    A moving blocks bootstrap procedure is used to investigate the dynamics of nominal exchange rates and the return rates of the US Dollar against the Polish Zloty. The problem if these financial time series exhibit chaotic behavior is undertaken. A possibility of detecting the presence of a positive Lyapunov exponent is studied.

  15. On the Identifiability Conditions in Some Nonlinear Time Series Models

    OpenAIRE

    Noh, Jungsik; Lee, Sangyeol

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we consider the identifiability problem for nonlinear time series models. Special attention is paid to smooth transition GARCH, nonlinear Poisson autoregressive, and multiple regime smooth transition autoregressive models. Some sufficient conditions are obtained to establish the identifiability of these models.

  16. Testing for asymmetry in economic time series using bootstrap methods

    OpenAIRE

    Claudio Lupi; Patrizia Ordine

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we show that phase-scrambling bootstrap offers a natural framework for asymmetry testing in economic time series. A comparison with other bootstrap schemes is also sketched. A Monte Carlo analysis is carried out to evaluate the size and power properties of the phase-scrambling bootstrap-based test.

  17. Time Series Data Visualization in World Wide Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fay, J.

    WorldWide Telescope provides a rich set of timer series visualization for both archival and real time data. WWT consists of both interactive desktop tools for interactive immersive visualization and HTML5 web based controls that can be utilized in customized web pages. WWT supports a range of display options including full dome, power walls, stereo and virtual reality headsets.

  18. Notes on economic time series analysis system theoretic perspectives

    CERN Document Server

    Aoki, Masanao

    1983-01-01

    In seminars and graduate level courses I have had several opportunities to discuss modeling and analysis of time series with economists and economic graduate students during the past several years. These experiences made me aware of a gap between what economic graduate students are taught about vector-valued time series and what is available in recent system literature. Wishing to fill or narrow the gap that I suspect is more widely spread than my personal experiences indicate, I have written these notes to augment and reor­ ganize materials I have given in these courses and seminars. I have endeavored to present, in as much a self-contained way as practicable, a body of results and techniques in system theory that I judge to be relevant and useful to economists interested in using time series in their research. I have essentially acted as an intermediary and interpreter of system theoretic results and perspectives in time series by filtering out non-essential details, and presenting coherent accounts of wha...

  19. A test of conditional heteroscedasticity in time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈敏; 安鸿志

    1999-01-01

    A new test of conditional heteroscedasticity for time series is proposed. The new testing method is based on a goodness of fit type test statistics and a Cramer-von Mises type test statistic. The asymptotic properties of the new test statistic is establised. The results demonstrate that such a test is consistent.

  20. FIXED-DESIGN SEMIPARAMETRIC REGRESSION FOR LINEAR TIME SERIES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    This article studies parametric component and nonparametric component estimators in a semiparametric regression model with linear time series errors; their r-th mean consistency and complete consistency are obtained under suitable conditions. Finally, the author shows that the usual weight functions based on nearest neighbor methods satisfy the designed assumptions imposed.

  1. Deriving dynamic marketing effectiveness from econometric time series models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Horváth (Csilla); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractTo understand the relevance of marketing efforts, it has become standard practice to estimate the long-run and short-run effects of the marketing-mix, using, say, weekly scanner data. A common vehicle for this purpose is an econometric time series model. Issues that are addressed in the

  2. Time Series, Stochastic Processes and Completeness of Quantum Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Most of physical experiments are usually described as repeated measurements of some random variables. Experimental data registered by on-line computers form time series of outcomes. The frequencies of different outcomes are compared with the probabilities provided by the algorithms of quantum theory (QT). In spite of statistical predictions of QT a claim was made that it provided the most complete description of the data and of the underlying physical phenomena. This claim could be easily rejected if some fine structures, averaged out in the standard descriptive statistical analysis, were found in time series of experimental data. To search for these structures one has to use more subtle statistical tools which were developed to study time series produced by various stochastic processes. In this talk we review some of these tools. As an example we show how the standard descriptive statistical analysis of the data is unable to reveal a fine structure in a simulated sample of AR (2) stochastic process. We emphasize once again that the violation of Bell inequalities gives no information on the completeness or the non locality of QT. The appropriate way to test the completeness of quantum theory is to search for fine structures in time series of the experimental data by means of the purity tests or by studying the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions.

  3. Time series model based on global structure of complete genome

    CERN Document Server

    Yu, Z G; Anh, Vo

    2001-01-01

    A time series model based on the global structure of the complete genome is proposed. Three kinds of length sequences of the complete genome are considered. The correlation dimensions and Hurst exponents of the length sequences are calculated. Using these two exponents, some interesting results related to the problem of classification and evolution relationship of bacteria are obtained.

  4. Estimating measurement noise in a time series by exploiting nonstationarity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A measured time series is always corrupted by noise to some degree. Even a rough estimation of the level of noise contained in an experimental time series is valuable. This is so, for example, when one wishes to apply techniques from nonlinear dynamics theory to analyze a time series. However, this is a very difficult problem. It becomes even harder when the measured signal is nonstationary, which is often true in practice. Detecting nonstationarity has been a hot research topic in recent years. However, many researchers stop when they find the time series under study is indeed nonstationary. Here, we exploit the very nature of nonstationarity in a signal to formulate a method for quantitatively estimating the amount of noise contained in the signal. The approach is first verified using computer simulated signals based on the chaotic Lorenz attractors and the Mackey-Glass equations with different parameters and then applied to the clinically measured intracranial EEG signals. It is found that the amount of noise in the EEG signals is around 8.0-8.5% in terms of amplitude. Implications to whether EEG signals are chaotic or not are discussed

  5. Chaotic time series prediction using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bartlett, E.B.

    1991-01-01

    This paper describes the use of artificial neural networks to model the complex oscillations defined by a chaotic Verhuist animal population dynamic. A predictive artificial neural network model is developed and tested, and results of computer simulations are given. These results show that the artificial neural network model predicts the chaotic time series with various initial conditions, growth parameters, or noise.

  6. Chaotic time series prediction using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bartlett, E.B.

    1991-12-31

    This paper describes the use of artificial neural networks to model the complex oscillations defined by a chaotic Verhuist animal population dynamic. A predictive artificial neural network model is developed and tested, and results of computer simulations are given. These results show that the artificial neural network model predicts the chaotic time series with various initial conditions, growth parameters, or noise.

  7. Outlier detection algorithms for least squares time series regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Nielsen, Bent

    We review recent asymptotic results on some robust methods for multiple regression. The regressors include stationary and non-stationary time series as well as polynomial terms. The methods include the Huber-skip M-estimator, 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators, in particular the Impulse Indicator...

  8. Time Series Classification by Class-Based Mahalanobis Distances

    CERN Document Server

    Prekopcsák, Zoltán

    2010-01-01

    To classify time series by nearest neighbor, we need to specify or learn a distance. We consider several variations of the Mahalanobis distance and the related Large Margin Nearest Neighbor Classification (LMNN). We find that the conventional Mahalanobis distance is counterproductive. However, both LMNN and the class-based diagonal Mahalanobis distance are competitive.

  9. Heart Electrical Actions as Biometric Indicia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schipper, John F. (Inventor); Dusan, Sorin V. (Inventor); Jorgensen, Charles C. (Inventor); Belousof, Eugene (Inventor)

    2013-01-01

    A method and associated system for use of statistical parameters based on peak amplitudes and/or time interval lengths and/or depolarization-repolarization vector angles and/or depolarization-repolarization vector lengths for PQRST electrical signals associated with heart waves, to identify a person. The statistical parameters, estimated to be at least 192, serve as biometric indicia, to authenticate, or to decline to authenticate, an asserted identity of a candidate person.

  10. Time Series Analysis for the Drac River Basin (france)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parra-Castro, K.; Donado-Garzon, L. D.; Rodriguez, E.

    2013-12-01

    This research is based on analyzing of discharge time-series in four stream flow gage stations located in the Drac River basin in France: (i) Guinguette Naturelle, (ii) Infernet, (iii) Parassat and the stream flow gage (iv) Villard Loubière. In addition, time-series models as the linear regression (single and multiple) and the MORDOR model were implemented to analyze the behavior the Drac River from year 1969 until year 2010. Twelve different models were implemented to assess the daily and monthly discharge time-series for the four flow gage stations. Moreover, five selection criteria were use to analyze the models: average division, variance division, the coefficient R2, Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) and the Nash Number. The selection of the models was made to have the strongest models with an important level confidence. In this case, according to the best correlation between the time-series of stream flow gage stations and the best fitting models. Four of the twelve models were selected: two models for the stream flow gage station Guinguette Naturel, one for the station Infernet and one model for the station Villard Loubière. The R2 coefficients achieved were 0.87, 0.95, 0.85 and 0.87 respectively. Consequently, both confidence levels (the modeled and the empirical) were tested in the selected model, leading to the best fitting of both discharge time-series and models with the empirical confidence interval. Additionally, a procedure for validation of the models was conducted using the data for the year 2011, where extreme hydrologic and changes in hydrologic regimes events were identified. Furthermore, two different forms of estimating uncertainty through the use of confidence levels were studied: the modeled and the empirical confidence levels. This research was useful to update the used procedures and validate time-series in the four stream flow gage stations for the use of the company Électricité de France. Additionally, coefficients for both the models and

  11. Avoiding terminological confusion between the notions of 'biometrics' and 'biometric data' : An investigation into the meanings of the terms from a European data protection and a scientific perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jasserand, Catherine

    2015-01-01

    This article has been motivated by an observation: the lack of rigor by European bodies when they use scientific terms to address data protection and privacy issues raised by biometric technologies and biometric data. In particular, they improperly use the term ‘biometrics’ to mean at the same time

  12. Secured Cryptographic Key Generation From Multimodal Biometrics Feature Level Fusion Of Fingerprint And Iris

    CERN Document Server

    Jagadeesan, A

    2010-01-01

    Human users have a tough time remembering long cryptographic keys. Hence, researchers, for so long, have been examining ways to utilize biometric features of the user instead of a memorable password or passphrase, in an effort to generate strong and repeatable cryptographic keys. Our objective is to incorporate the volatility of the users biometric features into the generated key, so as to make the key unguessable to an attacker lacking significant knowledge of the users biometrics. We go one step further trying to incorporate multiple biometric modalities into cryptographic key generation so as to provide better security. In this article, we propose an efficient approach based on multimodal biometrics (Iris and fingerprint) for generation of secure cryptographic key. The proposed approach is composed of three modules namely, 1) Feature extraction, 2) Multimodal biometric template generation and 3) Cryptographic key generation. Initially, the features, minutiae points and texture properties are extracted from...

  13. Secured Cryptographic Key Generation From Multimodal Biometrics: Feature Level Fusion of Fingerprint and Iris

    CERN Document Server

    Jagadeesan, A

    2010-01-01

    Human users have a tough time remembering long cryptographic keys. Hence, researchers, for so long, have been examining ways to utilize biometric features of the user instead of a memorable password or passphrase, in an effort to generate strong and repeatable cryptographic keys. Our objective is to incorporate the volatility of the user's biometric features into the generated key, so as to make the key unguessable to an attacker lacking significant knowledge of the user's biometrics. We go one step further trying to incorporate multiple biometric modalities into cryptographic key generation so as to provide better security. In this article, we propose an efficient approach based on multimodal biometrics (Iris and fingerprint) for generation of secure cryptographic key. The proposed approach is composed of three modules namely, 1) Feature extraction, 2) Multimodal biometric template generation and 3) Cryptographic key generation. Initially, the features, minutiae points and texture properties are extracted fr...

  14. Assessing coupling dynamics from an ensemble of time series

    CERN Document Server

    Gomez-Herrero, German; Rutanen, Kalle; Soriano, Miguel C; Pipa, Gordon; Vicente, Raul

    2010-01-01

    Finding interdependency relations between (possibly multivariate) time series provides valuable knowledge about the processes that generate the signals. Information theory sets a natural framework for non-parametric measures of several classes of statistical dependencies. However, a reliable estimation from information-theoretic functionals is hampered when the dependency to be assessed is brief or evolves in time. Here, we show that these limitations can be overcome when we have access to an ensemble of independent repetitions of the time series. In particular, we gear a data-efficient estimator of probability densities to make use of the full structure of trial-based measures. By doing so, we can obtain time-resolved estimates for a family of entropy combinations (including mutual information, transfer entropy, and their conditional counterparts) which are more accurate than the simple average of individual estimates over trials. We show with simulated and real data that the proposed approach allows to reco...

  15. Irreversibility of financial time series: A graph-theoretical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanagan, Ryan; Lacasa, Lucas

    2016-04-01

    The relation between time series irreversibility and entropy production has been recently investigated in thermodynamic systems operating away from equilibrium. In this work we explore this concept in the context of financial time series. We make use of visibility algorithms to quantify, in graph-theoretical terms, time irreversibility of 35 financial indices evolving over the period 1998-2012. We show that this metric is complementary to standard measures based on volatility and exploit it to both classify periods of financial stress and to rank companies accordingly. We then validate this approach by finding that a projection in principal components space of financial years, based on time irreversibility features, clusters together periods of financial stress from stable periods. Relations between irreversibility, efficiency and predictability are briefly discussed.

  16. Multiple imputation for time series data with Amelia package.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongheng

    2016-02-01

    Time series data are common in medical researches. Many laboratory variables or study endpoints could be measured repeatedly over time. Multiple imputation (MI) without considering time trend of a variable may cause it to be unreliable. The article illustrates how to perform MI by using Amelia package in a clinical scenario. Amelia package is powerful in that it allows for MI for time series data. External information on the variable of interest can also be incorporated by using prior or bound argument. Such information may be based on previous published observations, academic consensus, and personal experience. Diagnostics of imputation model can be performed by examining the distributions of imputed and observed values, or by using over-imputation technique. PMID:26904578

  17. Classification of time series patterns from complex dynamic systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schryver, J.C.; Rao, N.

    1998-07-01

    An increasing availability of high-performance computing and data storage media at decreasing cost is making possible the proliferation of large-scale numerical databases and data warehouses. Numeric warehousing enterprises on the order of hundreds of gigabytes to terabytes are a reality in many fields such as finance, retail sales, process systems monitoring, biomedical monitoring, surveillance and transportation. Large-scale databases are becoming more accessible to larger user communities through the internet, web-based applications and database connectivity. Consequently, most researchers now have access to a variety of massive datasets. This trend will probably only continue to grow over the next several years. Unfortunately, the availability of integrated tools to explore, analyze and understand the data warehoused in these archives is lagging far behind the ability to gain access to the same data. In particular, locating and identifying patterns of interest in numerical time series data is an increasingly important problem for which there are few available techniques. Temporal pattern recognition poses many interesting problems in classification, segmentation, prediction, diagnosis and anomaly detection. This research focuses on the problem of classification or characterization of numerical time series data. Highway vehicles and their drivers are examples of complex dynamic systems (CDS) which are being used by transportation agencies for field testing to generate large-scale time series datasets. Tools for effective analysis of numerical time series in databases generated by highway vehicle systems are not yet available, or have not been adapted to the target problem domain. However, analysis tools from similar domains may be adapted to the problem of classification of numerical time series data.

  18. Mixed Spectrum Analysis on fMRI Time-Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Arun; Lin, Feng; Rajapakse, Jagath C

    2016-06-01

    Temporal autocorrelation present in functional magnetic resonance image (fMRI) data poses challenges to its analysis. The existing approaches handling autocorrelation in fMRI time-series often presume a specific model of autocorrelation such as an auto-regressive model. The main limitation here is that the correlation structure of voxels is generally unknown and varies in different brain regions because of different levels of neurogenic noises and pulsatile effects. Enforcing a universal model on all brain regions leads to bias and loss of efficiency in the analysis. In this paper, we propose the mixed spectrum analysis of the voxel time-series to separate the discrete component corresponding to input stimuli and the continuous component carrying temporal autocorrelation. A mixed spectral analysis technique based on M-spectral estimator is proposed, which effectively removes autocorrelation effects from voxel time-series and identify significant peaks of the spectrum. As the proposed method does not assume any prior model for the autocorrelation effect in voxel time-series, varying correlation structure among the brain regions does not affect its performance. We have modified the standard M-spectral method for an application on a spatial set of time-series by incorporating the contextual information related to the continuous spectrum of neighborhood voxels, thus reducing considerably the computation cost. Likelihood of the activation is predicted by comparing the amplitude of discrete component at stimulus frequency of voxels across the brain by using normal distribution and modeling spatial correlations among the likelihood with a conditional random field. We also demonstrate the application of the proposed method in detecting other desired frequencies. PMID:26800533

  19. Forecasting Framework for Open Access Time Series in Energy

    OpenAIRE

    Barta, Gergo; Nagy, Gabor; Simon, Gabor; Papp, Gyozo

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we propose a framework for automated forecasting of energy-related time series using open access data from European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E). The framework provides forecasts for various European countries using publicly available historical data only. Our solution was benchmarked using the actual load data and the country provided estimates (where available). We conclude that the proposed system can produce timely forecasts with compara...

  20. Quantile Spectral Analysis for Locally Stationary Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Birr, Stefan; Volgushev, Stanislav; Kley, Tobias; Dette, Holger; Hallin, Marc

    2014-01-01

    Classical spectral methods are subject to two fundamental limitations: they only can account for covariance-related serial dependencies, and they require second-order stationarity. Much attention has been devoted recently to quantile-based spectral methods that go beyond covariance-based serial dependence features. At the same time, covariance-based methods relaxing stationarity into much weaker local stationarity conditions have been developed for a variety of time-series models. Here, we ar...

  1. Time Series Factor Analysis with an Application to Measuring Money

    OpenAIRE

    Gilbert, Paul D.; Meijer, Erik

    2005-01-01

    Time series factor analysis (TSFA) and its associated statistical theory is developed. Unlike dynamic factor analysis (DFA), TSFA obviates the need for explicitly modeling the process dynamics of the underlying phenomena. It also differs from standard factor analysis (FA) in important respects: the factor model has a nontrivial mean structure, the observations are allowed to be dependent over time, and the data does not need to be covariance stationary as long as differenced data satisfies a ...

  2. Assemblage time series reveal biodiversity change but not systematic loss

    OpenAIRE

    Dornelas, Maria; Nicholas J. Gotelli; McGill, Brian; Shimadzu, Hideyasu; Moyes, Faye; Sievers, Caya; Magurran, Anne E.

    2014-01-01

    The extent to which biodiversity change in local assemblages contributes to global biodiversity loss is poorly understood. We analyzed 100 time series from biomes across Earth to ask how diversity within assemblages is changing through time. We quantified patterns of temporal α diversity, measured as change in local diversity, and temporal β diversity, measured as change in community composition. Contrary to our expectations, we did not detect systematic loss of α diversity. However, communit...

  3. Financial Time Series Forecasting Using Directed-Weighted Chunking SVMs

    OpenAIRE

    Yongming Cai; Lei Song; Tingwei Wang; Qing Chang

    2014-01-01

    Support vector machines (SVMs) are a promising alternative to traditional regression estimation approaches. But, when dealing with massive-scale data set, there exist many problems, such as the long training time and excessive demand of memory space. So, the SVMs algorithm is not suitable to deal with financial time series data. In order to solve these problems, directed-weighted chunking SVMs algorithm is proposed. In this algorithm, the whole training data set is split into several chunks, ...

  4. Displaying time series, spatial, and space-time data with R

    CERN Document Server

    Perpinan Lamigueiro, Oscar

    2014-01-01

    Code and Methods for Creating High-Quality Data GraphicsA data graphic is not only a static image, but it also tells a story about the data. It activates cognitive processes that are able to detect patterns and discover information not readily available with the raw data. This is particularly true for time series, spatial, and space-time datasets.Focusing on the exploration of data with visual methods, Displaying Time Series, Spatial, and Space-Time Data with R presents methods and R code for producing high-quality graphics of time series, spatial, and space-time data. Practical examples using

  5. Deterministics, initial conditions and breaks in long memory time series

    OpenAIRE

    Rachinger, Heiko

    2012-01-01

    En mi tesis doctoral, se modelizan series temporales con memoria larga y con un componente determinista que potencialmente sufre rupturas. Se consideran contrastes para rupturas y la estimación de los parámetros. Finalmente, se analiza la estimación e ciente de tendencias lineales y su impacto proveniente de la presencia y la longitud de de la pre-muestra. En el primer capítulo, Multiple Breaks in Long Memory Time Series , se propone un enfoque uni cado para la modelización de...

  6. Adaptively Sharing Time-Series with Differential Privacy

    CERN Document Server

    Fan, Liyue

    2012-01-01

    Sharing real-time aggregate statistics of private data has given much benefit to the public to perform data mining for understanding important phenomena, such as Influenza outbreaks and traffic congestions. We propose an adaptive approach with sampling and estimation to release aggregated time series under differential privacy, the key innovation of which is that we utilize feedback loops based on observed (perturbed) values to dynamically adjust the estimation model as well as the sampling rate. To minimize the overall privacy cost, our solution uses the PID controller to adaptively sample long time-series according to detected data dynamics. To improve the accuracy of data release per timestamp, the Kalman filter is used to predict data values at non-sampling points and to estimate true values from perturbed query answers at sampling points. Our experiments with three real data sets show that it is beneficial to incorporate feedback into both the estimation model and the sampling process. The results confir...

  7. Time series segmentation with shifting means hidden markov models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ath. Kehagias

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a new family of hidden Markov models and apply these to the segmentation of hydrological and environmental time series. The proposed hidden Markov models have a discrete state space and their structure is inspired from the shifting means models introduced by Chernoff and Zacks and by Salas and Boes. An estimation method inspired from the EM algorithm is proposed, and we show that it can accurately identify multiple change-points in a time series. We also show that the solution obtained using this algorithm can serve as a starting point for a Monte-Carlo Markov chain Bayesian estimation method, thus reducing the computing time needed for the Markov chain to converge to a stationary distribution.

  8. Time series segmentation with shifting means hidden markov models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kehagias, Ath.; Fortin, V.

    2006-08-01

    We present a new family of hidden Markov models and apply these to the segmentation of hydrological and environmental time series. The proposed hidden Markov models have a discrete state space and their structure is inspired from the shifting means models introduced by Chernoff and Zacks and by Salas and Boes. An estimation method inspired from the EM algorithm is proposed, and we show that it can accurately identify multiple change-points in a time series. We also show that the solution obtained using this algorithm can serve as a starting point for a Monte-Carlo Markov chain Bayesian estimation method, thus reducing the computing time needed for the Markov chain to converge to a stationary distribution.

  9. A comprehensive characterization of recurrences in time series

    CERN Document Server

    Chicheportiche, Rémy

    2013-01-01

    Study of recurrences in earthquakes, climate, financial time-series, etc. is crucial to better forecast disasters and limit their consequences. However, almost all the previous phenomenological studies involved only a long-ranged autocorrelation function, or disregarded the multi-scaling properties induced by potential higher order dependencies. Consequently, they missed the facts that non-linear dependences do impact both the statistics and dynamics of recurrence times, and that scaling arguments for the unconditional distribution may not be applicable. We argue that copulas is the correct model-free framework to study non-linear dependencies in time series and related concepts like recurrences. Fitting and/or simulating the intertemporal distribution of recurrence intervals is very much system specific, and cannot actually benefit from universal features, in contrast to the previous claims. This has important implications in epilepsy prognosis and financial risk management applications.

  10. Cross Recurrence Plot Based Synchronization of Time Series

    CERN Document Server

    Marwan, N; Nowaczyk, N R

    2002-01-01

    The method of recurrence plots is extended to the cross recurrence plots (CRP), which among others enables the study of synchronization or time differences in two time series. This is emphasized in a distorted main diagonal in the cross recurrence plot, the line of synchronization (LOS). A non-parametrical fit of this LOS can be used to rescale the time axis of the two data series (whereby one of it is e.g. compressed or stretched) so that they are synchronized. An application of this method to geophysical sediment core data illustrates its suitability for real data. The rock magnetic data of two different sediment cores from the Makarov Basin can be adjusted to each other by using this method, so that they are comparable.

  11. Minimum Entropy Density Method for the Time Series Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, J W; Moon, H T; Park, J B; Yang, J S; Jo, Hang-Hyun; Lee, Jeong Won; Moon, Hie-Tae; Park, Joongwoo Brian; Yang, Jae-Suk

    2006-01-01

    The entropy density is an intuitive and powerful concept to study the complicated nonlinear processes derived from physical systems. We develop the minimum entropy density method (MEDM) to detect the most correlated time interval of a given time series and define the effective delay of information (EDI) as the correlation length that minimizes the entropy density in relation to the velocity of information flow. The MEDM is applied to the financial time series of Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P500) index from February 1983 to April 2006. It is found that EDI of S&P500 index has decreased for the last twenty years, which suggests that the efficiency of the U.S. market dynamics became close to the efficient market hypothesis.

  12. Building Real-Time Network Intrusion Detection System Based on Parallel Time-Series Mining Techniques

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhao Feng; Li Qinghua

    2005-01-01

    A new real-time model based on parallel time-series mining is proposed to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the network intrusion detection systems. In this model, multidimensional dataset is constructed to describe network events, and sliding window updating algorithm is used to maintain network stream. Moreover, parallel frequent patterns and frequent episodes mining algorithms are applied to implement parallel time-series mining engineer which can intelligently generate rules to distinguish intrusions from normal activities. Analysis and study on the basis of DAWNING 3000 indicate that this parallel time-series mining-based model provides a more accurate and efficient way to building real-time NIDS.

  13. Cross Disciplinary Biometric Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Chengjun

    2012-01-01

    Cross disciplinary biometric systems help boost the performance of the conventional systems. Not only is the recognition accuracy significantly improved, but also the robustness of the systems is greatly enhanced in the challenging environments, such as varying illumination conditions. By leveraging the cross disciplinary technologies, face recognition systems, fingerprint recognition systems, iris recognition systems, as well as image search systems all benefit in terms of recognition performance.  Take face recognition for an example, which is not only the most natural way human beings recognize the identity of each other, but also the least privacy-intrusive means because people show their face publicly every day. Face recognition systems display superb performance when they capitalize on the innovative ideas across color science, mathematics, and computer science (e.g., pattern recognition, machine learning, and image processing). The novel ideas lead to the development of new color models and effective ...

  14. TimeSeriesStreaming.vi: LabVIEW program for reliable data streaming of large analog time series

    CERN Document Server

    Czerwinski, Fabian

    2010-01-01

    With modern data acquisition devices that work fast and very precise, scientists often face the task of dealing with huge amounts of data. These need to be rapidly processed and stored onto a hard disk. We present a LabVIEW program which reliably streams analog time series of MHz sampling. Its run time has virtually no limitation. We explicitly show how to use the program to extract time series from two experiments: For a photodiode detection system that tracks the position of an optically trapped particle and for a measurement of ionic current through a glass capillary. The program is easy to use and versatile as the input can be any type of analog signal. Also, the data streaming software is simple, highly reliable, and can be easily customized to include, e.g., real-time power spectral analysis and Allan variance noise quantification.

  15. Biometrics Research and Engineering Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — As the Department of Defense moves forward in its pursuit of integrating biometrics technology into facility access control, the Global War on Terrorism and weapon...

  16. Biometrics for home networks security

    KAUST Repository

    Ansari, Imran Shafique

    2009-01-01

    Hacking crimes committed to the home networks are increasing. Advanced network protection is not always possible for the home networks. In this paper we will study the ability of using biometric systems for authentication in home networks. ©2009 IEEE.

  17. Signal and image processing for biometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Proença, Hugo; Du, Eliza

    2014-01-01

    This volume offers a guide to the state of the art in the fast evolving field of biometric recognition to newcomers and experienced practitioners. It is focused on the emerging strategies to perform biometric recognition under uncontrolled data acquisition conditions. The mainstream research work in this field is presented in an organized manner, so the reader can easily follow the trends that best suits her/his interests in this growing field. The book chapters cover the recent advances in less controlled / covert data acquisition frameworks, segmentation of poor quality biometric data, biometric data quality assessment, normalization of poor quality biometric data. contactless biometric recognition strategies, biometric recognition robustness, data resolution, illumination, distance, pose, motion, occlusions, multispectral biometric recognition, multimodal biometrics, fusion at different levels, high confidence automatic surveillance.

  18. Times series averaging from a probabilistic interpretation of time-elastic kernel

    OpenAIRE

    Marteau, Pierre-François

    2015-01-01

    At the light of regularized dynamic time warping kernels, this paper reconsider the concept of time elastic centroid (TEC) for a set of time series. From this perspective, we show first how TEC can easily be addressed as a preimage problem. Unfortunately this preimage problem is ill-posed, may suffer from over-fitting especially for long time series and getting a sub-optimal solution involves heavy computational costs. We then derive two new algorithms based on a probabilistic interpretation ...

  19. Assessing spatial covariance among time series of abundance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorgensen, Jeffrey C; Ward, Eric J; Scheuerell, Mark D; Zabel, Richard W

    2016-04-01

    For species of conservation concern, an essential part of the recovery planning process is identifying discrete population units and their location with respect to one another. A common feature among geographically proximate populations is that the number of organisms tends to covary through time as a consequence of similar responses to exogenous influences. In turn, high covariation among populations can threaten the persistence of the larger metapopulation. Historically, explorations of the covariance in population size of species with many (>10) time series have been computationally difficult. Here, we illustrate how dynamic factor analysis (DFA) can be used to characterize diversity among time series of population abundances and the degree to which all populations can be represented by a few common signals. Our application focuses on anadromous Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a species listed under the US Endangered Species Act, that is impacted by a variety of natural and anthropogenic factors. Specifically, we fit DFA models to 24 time series of population abundance and used model selection to identify the minimum number of latent variables that explained the most temporal variation after accounting for the effects of environmental covariates. We found support for grouping the time series according to 5 common latent variables. The top model included two covariates: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in spring and summer. The assignment of populations to the latent variables matched the currently established population structure at a broad spatial scale. At a finer scale, there was more population grouping complexity. Some relatively distant populations were grouped together, and some relatively close populations - considered to be more aligned with each other - were more associated with populations further away. These coarse- and fine-grained examinations of spatial structure are important because they reveal different structural patterns not evident

  20. Dynamical analysis and visualization of tornadoes time series.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    António M Lopes

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze the behavior of tornado time-series in the U.S. from the perspective of dynamical systems. A tornado is a violently rotating column of air extending from a cumulonimbus cloud down to the ground. Such phenomena reveal features that are well described by power law functions and unveil characteristics found in systems with long range memory effects. Tornado time series are viewed as the output of a complex system and are interpreted as a manifestation of its dynamics. Tornadoes are modeled as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the events size. First, a collection of time series involving 64 years is analyzed in the frequency domain by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectra are approximated by power law functions and their parameters are read as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. Second, it is adopted the concept of circular time and the collective behavior of tornadoes analyzed. Clustering techniques are then adopted to identify and visualize the emerging patterns.

  1. Dynamical analysis and visualization of tornadoes time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, António M; Tenreiro Machado, J A

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the behavior of tornado time-series in the U.S. from the perspective of dynamical systems. A tornado is a violently rotating column of air extending from a cumulonimbus cloud down to the ground. Such phenomena reveal features that are well described by power law functions and unveil characteristics found in systems with long range memory effects. Tornado time series are viewed as the output of a complex system and are interpreted as a manifestation of its dynamics. Tornadoes are modeled as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the events size. First, a collection of time series involving 64 years is analyzed in the frequency domain by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectra are approximated by power law functions and their parameters are read as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. Second, it is adopted the concept of circular time and the collective behavior of tornadoes analyzed. Clustering techniques are then adopted to identify and visualize the emerging patterns. PMID:25790281

  2. Biometric Recognition for Pet Animal

    OpenAIRE

    Santosh Kumar; Sanjay Kumar Singh

    2014-01-01

    Missing, swapping, false insurance claims and reallocation of pet animals (dog) are global problems throughout the world and research done to solve this problem is minimal. Traditional biometrics and non-biometrics methods have their own boundaries and they fail to provide competent level of security to pet animal (dog). The work on animal identification based on their phenotype appearance (coat patterns) has been an active research area in recent years and automatic face recognition for...

  3. Environmental Testing Methodology in Biometrics

    OpenAIRE

    Fernández Saavedra, Belén; Sánchez Reíllo, Raúl; Alonso Moreno, Raúl; Miguel Hurtado, Óscar

    2010-01-01

    Recently, biometrics is used in many security systems and these systems can be located in different environments. As many experts claim and previous works have demonstrated, environmental conditions influence biometric performance. Nevertheless, there is not a specific methodology for testing this influence at the moment. Due to it is essential to carry out this kind of evaluations, a new ISO standard was proposed for regularizing them. Such standard was accepted and it has to be specif...

  4. Learning time series evolution by unsupervised extraction of correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deco, Gustavo; Schürmann, Bernd

    1995-03-01

    We focus on the problem of modeling time series by learning statistical correlations between the past and present elements of the series in an unsupervised fashion. This kind of correlation is, in general, nonlinear, especially in the chaotic domain. Therefore the learning algorithm should be able to extract statistical correlations, i.e., higher-order correlations between the elements of the time signal. This problem can be viewed as a special case of factorial learning. Factorial learning may be formulated as an unsupervised redundancy reduction between the output components of a transformation that conserves the transmitted information. An information-theoretic-based architecture and learning paradigm are introduced. The neural architecture has only one layer and a triangular structure in order to transform elements by observing only the past and to conserve the volume. In this fashion, a transformation that guarantees transmission of information without loss is formulated. The learning rule decorrelates the output components of the network. Two methods are used: higher-order decorrelation by explicit evaluation of higher-order cumulants of the output distributions, and minimization of the sum of entropies of each output component in order to minimize the mutual information between them, assuming that the entropies have an upper bound given by Gibbs second theorem. After decorrelation between the output components, the correlation between the elements of the time series can be extracted by analyzing the trained neural architecture. As a consequence, we are able to model chaotic and nonchaotic time series. Furthermore, one critical point in modeling time series is the determination of the dimension of the embedding vector used, i.e., the number of components of the past that are needed to predict the future. With this method we can detect the embedding dimension by extracting the influence of the past on the future, i.e., the correlation of remote past and future

  5. TESTING FOR OUTLIERS IN TIME SERIES USING WAVELETS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Tong; ZHANG Xibin; ZHANG Shiying

    2003-01-01

    One remarkable feature of wavelet decomposition is that the wavelet coefficients are localized, and any singularity in the input signals can only affect the wavelet coefficients at the point near the singularity. The localized property of the wavelet coefficients allows us to identify the singularities in the input signals by studying the wavelet coefficients at different resolution levels. This paper considers wavelet-based approaches for the detection of outliers in time series. Outliers are high-frequency phenomena which are associated with the wavelet coefficients with large absolute values at different resolution levels. On the basis of the first-level wavelet coefficients, this paper presents a diagnostic to identify outliers in a time series. Under the null hypothesis that there is no outlier, the proposed diagnostic is distributed as a X12. Empirical examples are presented to demonstrate the application of the proposed diagnostic.

  6. Deviations from uniform power law scaling in nonstationary time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viswanathan, G. M.; Peng, C. K.; Stanley, H. E.; Goldberger, A. L.

    1997-01-01

    A classic problem in physics is the analysis of highly nonstationary time series that typically exhibit long-range correlations. Here we test the hypothesis that the scaling properties of the dynamics of healthy physiological systems are more stable than those of pathological systems by studying beat-to-beat fluctuations in the human heart rate. We develop techniques based on the Fano factor and Allan factor functions, as well as on detrended fluctuation analysis, for quantifying deviations from uniform power-law scaling in nonstationary time series. By analyzing extremely long data sets of up to N = 10(5) beats for 11 healthy subjects, we find that the fluctuations in the heart rate scale approximately uniformly over several temporal orders of magnitude. By contrast, we find that in data sets of comparable length for 14 subjects with heart disease, the fluctuations grow erratically, indicating a loss of scaling stability.

  7. Time series prediction by feedforward neural networks - is it difficult?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The difficulties that a neural network faces when trying to learn from a quasi-periodic time series are studied analytically using a teacher-student scenario where the random input is divided into two macroscopic regions with different variances, 1 and 1/γ2 (γ >> 1). The generalization error is found to decrease as εg ∝ exp(-α/γ2), where α is the number of examples per input dimension. In contradiction to this very slow vanishing generalization error, the next output prediction is found to be almost free of mistakes. This picture is consistent with learning quasi-periodic time series produced by feedforward neural networks, which is dominated by enhanced components of the Fourier spectrum of the input. Simulation results are in good agreement with the analytical results

  8. Model-Coupled Autoencoder for Time Series Visualisation

    CERN Document Server

    Gianniotis, Nikolaos; Tiňo, Peter; Polsterer, Kai L

    2016-01-01

    We present an approach for the visualisation of a set of time series that combines an echo state network with an autoencoder. For each time series in the dataset we train an echo state network, using a common and fixed reservoir of hidden neurons, and use the optimised readout weights as the new representation. Dimensionality reduction is then performed via an autoencoder on the readout weight representations. The crux of the work is to equip the autoencoder with a loss function that correctly interprets the reconstructed readout weights by associating them with a reconstruction error measured in the data space of sequences. This essentially amounts to measuring the predictive performance that the reconstructed readout weights exhibit on their corresponding sequences when plugged back into the echo state network with the same fixed reservoir. We demonstrate that the proposed visualisation framework can deal both with real valued sequences as well as binary sequences. We derive magnification factors in order t...

  9. Fast Nonparametric Clustering of Structured Time-Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hensman, James; Rattray, Magnus; Lawrence, Neil D

    2015-02-01

    In this publication, we combine two Bayesian nonparametric models: the Gaussian Process (GP) and the Dirichlet Process (DP). Our innovation in the GP model is to introduce a variation on the GP prior which enables us to model structured time-series data, i.e., data containing groups where we wish to model inter- and intra-group variability. Our innovation in the DP model is an implementation of a new fast collapsed variational inference procedure which enables us to optimize our variational approximation significantly faster than standard VB approaches. In a biological time series application we show how our model better captures salient features of the data, leading to better consistency with existing biological classifications, while the associated inference algorithm provides a significant speed-up over EM-based variational inference. PMID:26353249

  10. The multiscale analysis between stock market time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Wenbin; Shang, Pengjian

    2015-11-01

    This paper is devoted to multiscale cross-correlation analysis on stock market time series, where multiscale DCCA cross-correlation coefficient as well as multiscale cross-sample entropy (MSCE) is applied. Multiscale DCCA cross-correlation coefficient is a realization of DCCA cross-correlation coefficient on multiple scales. The results of this method present a good scaling characterization. More significantly, this method is able to group stock markets by areas. Compared to multiscale DCCA cross-correlation coefficient, MSCE presents a more remarkable scaling characterization and the value of each log return of financial time series decreases with the increasing of scale factor. But the results of grouping is not as good as multiscale DCCA cross-correlation coefficient.

  11. Chaotic time series. Part II. System Identification and Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bjørn Lillekjendlie

    1994-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper is the second in a series of two, and describes the current state of the art in modeling and prediction of chaotic time series. Sample data from deterministic non-linear systems may look stochastic when analysed with linear methods. However, the deterministic structure may be uncovered and non-linear models constructed that allow improved prediction. We give the background for such methods from a geometrical point of view, and briefly describe the following types of methods: global polynomials, local polynomials, multilayer perceptrons and semi-local methods including radial basis functions. Some illustrative examples from known chaotic systems are presented, emphasising the increase in prediction error with time. We compare some of the algorithms with respect to prediction accuracy and storage requirements, and list applications of these methods to real data from widely different areas.

  12. Modeling Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index Using Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayo, W. S.; Urrutia, J. D.; Temple, J. M. F.; Sandoval, J. R. D.; Sanglay, J. E. A.

    2015-06-01

    This study was conducted to develop a time series model of the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index and its volatility using the finite mixture of ARIMA model with conditional variance equations such as ARCH, GARCH, EG ARCH, TARCH and PARCH models. Also, the study aimed to find out the reason behind the behaviorof PSEi, that is, which of the economic variables - Consumer Price Index, crude oil price, foreign exchange rate, gold price, interest rate, money supply, price-earnings ratio, Producers’ Price Index and terms of trade - can be used in projecting future values of PSEi and this was examined using Granger Causality Test. The findings showed that the best time series model for Philippine Stock Exchange Composite index is ARIMA(1,1,5) - ARCH(1). Also, Consumer Price Index, crude oil price and foreign exchange rate are factors concluded to Granger cause Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index.

  13. Time Series Analysis, Modeling and Applications A Computational Intelligence Perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Shyi-Ming

    2013-01-01

    Temporal and spatiotemporal data form an inherent fabric of the society as we are faced with streams of data coming from numerous sensors, data feeds, recordings associated with numerous areas of application embracing physical and human-generated phenomena (environmental data, financial markets, Internet activities, etc.). A quest for a thorough analysis, interpretation, modeling and prediction of time series comes with an ongoing challenge for developing models that are both accurate and user-friendly (interpretable). The volume is aimed to exploit the conceptual and algorithmic framework of Computational Intelligence (CI) to form a cohesive and comprehensive environment for building models of time series. The contributions covered in the volume are fully reflective of the wealth of the CI technologies by bringing together ideas, algorithms, and numeric studies, which convincingly demonstrate their relevance, maturity and visible usefulness. It reflects upon the truly remarkable diversity of methodological a...

  14. A Non-standard Empirical Likelihood for Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nordman, Daniel J.; Bunzel, Helle; Lahiri, Soumendra N.

    Standard blockwise empirical likelihood (BEL) for stationary, weakly dependent time series requires specifying a fixed block length as a tuning parameter for setting confidence regions. This aspect can be difficult and impacts coverage accuracy. As an alternative, this paper proposes a new version......-standard asymptotics and requires a significantly different development compared to standard BEL. We establish the large-sample distribution of log-ratio statistics from the new BEL method for calibrating confidence regions for mean or smooth function parameters of time series. This limit law is not the usual chi......-square one, but is distribution-free and can be reproduced through straightforward simulations. Numerical studies indicate that the proposed method generally exhibits better coverage accuracy than standard BEL....

  15. A Comparative Study of Portmanteau Tests for Univariate Time Series Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sohail Chand

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Time series model diagnostic checking is the most important stage of time series model building. In this paper the comparison among several suggested diagnostic tests has been made using the simulation time series data.

  16. DEM error retrieval by analyzing time series of differential interferograms

    OpenAIRE

    Bombrun, Lionel; Gay, Michel; Trouvé, Emmanuel; Vasile, Gabriel; Mars, Jerome,

    2009-01-01

    2-pass Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (D-InSAR) processing have been successfully used by the scientific community to derive velocity fields. Nevertheless, a precise Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is necessary to remove the topographic component from the interferograms. This letter presents a novel method to detect and retrieve DEM errors by analyzing time series of differential interferograms. The principle of the method is based on the comparison of fringe patterns with...

  17. A New Hybrid Methodology for Nonlinear Time Series Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Mehdi Khashei; Mehdi Bijari

    2011-01-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are flexible computing frameworks and universal approximators that can be applied to a wide range of forecasting problems with a high degree of accuracy. However, using ANNs to model linear problems have yielded mixed results, and hence; it is not wise to apply them blindly to any type of data. This is the reason that hybrid methodologies combining linear models such as ARIMA and nonlinear models such as ANNs have been proposed in the literature of time serie...

  18. Data-driven simulation of complex multidimensional time series

    OpenAIRE

    Lee W. Schruben; Singham, Dashi I.

    2014-01-01

    This article introduces a new framework for resampling general time series data. The approach, inspired by computer agent flocking algorithms, can be used to generate inputs to complex simulation models or for generating pseudo-replications of expensive simulation outputs. The method has the flexibility to enable replicated sensitivity analysis for trace-driven simulation, which is critical for risk assessment. The article includes two simple implementations to illustrate the approach. Th...

  19. A data-fitting procedure for chaotic time series

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDonough, J.M.; Mukerji, S. [Univ. of Kentucky, Lexington, KY (United States). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering; Chung, S. [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States)

    1998-10-01

    In this paper the authors introduce data characterizations for fitting chaotic data to linear combinations of one-dimensional maps (say, of the unit interval) for use in subgrid-scale turbulence models. They test the efficacy of these characterizations on data generated by a chaotically-forced Burgers` equation and demonstrate very satisfactory results in terms of modeled time series, power spectra and delay maps.

  20. Clustering Time-Series Energy Data from Smart Meters

    OpenAIRE

    Lavin, Alexander; Klabjan, Diego

    2016-01-01

    Investigations have been performed into using clustering methods in data mining time-series data from smart meters. The problem is to identify patterns and trends in energy usage profiles of commercial and industrial customers over 24-hour periods, and group similar profiles. We tested our method on energy usage data provided by several U.S. power utilities. The results show accurate grouping of accounts similar in their energy usage patterns, and potential for the method to be utilized in en...

  1. Automated analysis of protein subcellular location in time series images

    OpenAIRE

    Hu, Yanhua; Osuna-Highley, Elvira; Hua, Juchang; Nowicki, Theodore Scott; Stolz, Robert; McKayle, Camille; Murphy, Robert F.

    2010-01-01

    Motivation: Image analysis, machine learning and statistical modeling have become well established for the automatic recognition and comparison of the subcellular locations of proteins in microscope images. By using a comprehensive set of features describing static images, major subcellular patterns can be distinguished with near perfect accuracy. We now extend this work to time series images, which contain both spatial and temporal information. The goal is to use temporal features to improve...

  2. High frequency financial time series prediction: machine learning approach

    OpenAIRE

    Zankova, Ekaterina

    2016-01-01

    Machine learning is a rapidly evolving subfield of computer science. It has enormous amount of applications. One of the application domains is financial data analysis. Machine learning was usually applied for analysis and forecasting of daily financial time series. Availability of high frequency financial data became another challenge with its own specifics and difficulties. Regressors, being a significant part of machine learning field, have been selected as study subjects for this project. ...

  3. Properties of batch means from stationary ARMA time series

    OpenAIRE

    Kang, Keebom; Schmeiser, Bruce

    1986-01-01

    The batch means process arising from an arbitrary autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) process time series is derived. As side results, the variance and correlation structures of the batch means process as functions of the batch size and parameters of the original process are obtained. Except for the first-order ARMA process, for which a closed-form expression is obtained, the parameters of the batch-means process are determined numerically. Keywords: Monte Carlo method; Simulation. (Author)

  4. Time series clustering based on nonparametric multidimensional forecast densities

    OpenAIRE

    Vilar, José A.; Vilar, Juan M.

    2013-01-01

    A new time series clustering method based on comparing forecast densities for a sequence of $k>1$ consecutive horizons is proposed. The unknown $k$-dimensional forecast densities can be non-parametrically approximated by using bootstrap procedures that mimic the generating processes without parametric restrictions. However, the difficulty of constructing accurate kernel estimators of multivariate densities is well known. To circumvent the high dimensionality problem, the bootstrap prediction ...

  5. Evaluation of Time Series Techniques to Characterise Domestic Electricity Demand

    OpenAIRE

    McLoughlin, Fintan; Duffy, Aidan; Conlon, Michael

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses time series approaches, often used by Transmission System Operators (TSOs) to forecast system demand, and applies them at an individual dwelling level. In particular, two techniques, Fourier transforms and Gaussian processes were evaluated and used to characterise individual household electricity demand. The performance of the characterisation approaches were evaluated based on Pearson correlation coefficient, descriptive statistics and paired sample t-tests for electrica...

  6. On Clustering Time Series Using Euclidean Distance and Pearson Correlation

    OpenAIRE

    MICHAEL R BERTHOLD; Höppner, Frank

    2016-01-01

    For time series comparisons, it has often been observed that z-score normalized Euclidean distances far outperform the unnormalized variant. In this paper we show that a z-score normalized, squared Euclidean Distance is, in fact, equal to a distance based on Pearson Correlation. This has profound impact on many distance-based classification or clustering methods. In addition to this theoretically sound result we also show that the often used k-Means algorithm formally needs a mod ification to...

  7. Review on Periodicity Mining Techniques in Time Series Data

    OpenAIRE

    Yogesh Malode , Rahila Patel

    2012-01-01

    The rapid growth in data and databases increased a need of powerful data mining technique that will guide to analyze, forecast and predict behaviour of events. Periodicity mining needs to give more attention as its increased need in real life applications. In this paper, we are going to discuss on various periodicity mining techniques in Time Series Databases as well as symbolization. Here, we propose a periodicity mining technique that will detect various periodic patterns (symbol periodici...

  8. Surrogate data method applied to nonlinear time series

    OpenAIRE

    Luo, Xiaodong; Nakamura, Tomomichi; Small, Michael

    2006-01-01

    The surrogate data method is widely applied as a data dependent technique to test observed time series against a barrage of hypotheses. However, often the hypotheses one is able to address are not those of greatest interest, particularly for system known to be nonlinear. In the review we focus on techniques which overcome this shortcoming. We summarize a number of recently developed surrogate data methods. While our review of surrogate methods is not exhaustive, we do focus on methods which m...

  9. Mode Analysis with Autocorrelation Method (Single Time Series) in Tokamak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saadat, Shervin; Salem, Mohammad K.; Goranneviss, Mahmoud; Khorshid, Pejman

    2010-08-01

    In this paper plasma mode analyzed with statistical method that designated Autocorrelation function. Auto correlation function used from one time series, so for this purpose we need one Minov coil. After autocorrelation analysis on mirnov coil data, spectral density diagram is plotted. Spectral density diagram from symmetries and trends can analyzed plasma mode. RHF fields effects with this method ate investigated in IR-T1 tokamak and results corresponded with multichannel methods such as SVD and FFT.

  10. Time series regression model for infectious disease and weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imai, Chisato; Armstrong, Ben; Chalabi, Zaid; Mangtani, Punam; Hashizume, Masahiro

    2015-10-01

    Time series regression has been developed and long used to evaluate the short-term associations of air pollution and weather with mortality or morbidity of non-infectious diseases. The application of the regression approaches from this tradition to infectious diseases, however, is less well explored and raises some new issues. We discuss and present potential solutions for five issues often arising in such analyses: changes in immune population, strong autocorrelations, a wide range of plausible lag structures and association patterns, seasonality adjustments, and large overdispersion. The potential approaches are illustrated with datasets of cholera cases and rainfall from Bangladesh and influenza and temperature in Tokyo. Though this article focuses on the application of the traditional time series regression to infectious diseases and weather factors, we also briefly introduce alternative approaches, including mathematical modeling, wavelet analysis, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Modifications proposed to standard time series regression practice include using sums of past cases as proxies for the immune population, and using the logarithm of lagged disease counts to control autocorrelation due to true contagion, both of which are motivated from "susceptible-infectious-recovered" (SIR) models. The complexity of lag structures and association patterns can often be informed by biological mechanisms and explored by using distributed lag non-linear models. For overdispersed models, alternative distribution models such as quasi-Poisson and negative binomial should be considered. Time series regression can be used to investigate dependence of infectious diseases on weather, but may need modifying to allow for features specific to this context. PMID:26188633

  11. Time series prediction using artificial neural network for power stabilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Time series prediction has been applied to many business and scientific applications. Prominent among them are stock market prediction, weather forecasting, etc. Here, this technique has been applied to forecast plasma torch voltages to stabilize power using a backpropagation, a model of artificial neural network. The Extended-Delta-Bar-Delta algorithm is used to improve the convergence rate of the network and also to avoid local minima. Results from off-line data was quite promising to use in on-line

  12. A Novel Adaptive Predictor for Chaotic Time Series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BU Yun; WEN Guang-Jun; ZHOU Xiao-Jia; ZHANG Qiang

    2009-01-01

    Many chaotic time series show non-Gaussian distribution, and non-Gaussianity can be characterized not only by higher-order cumulants but also by negative entropy.Since negative entropy can be accurately approximated by some special non-polynomial functions, which also can form an orthogonal system, these functions are used to construct an adaptive predictor to replace higher-order cumulants.Simulation shows the algorithm performs well for different chaotic systems.

  13. Time series prediction using a rational fraction neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, K.; Lee, Y.C.; Barnes, C.; Aldrich, C.H.; Kindel, J.

    1988-01-01

    An efficient neural network based on a rational fraction representation has been trained to perform time series prediction. The network is a generalization of the Volterra-Wiener network while still retaining the computational efficiency of the latter. Because of the second order convergent nature of the learning algorithm, the rational net is computationally far more efficient than multilayer networks. The rational fractional representation is, however, more restrictive than the multilayer networks.

  14. River flow time series using least squares support vector machines

    OpenAIRE

    R. Samsudin; P. Saad; A. Shabri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a novel hybrid forecasting model known as GLSSVM, which combines the group method of data handling (GMDH) and the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM). The GMDH is used to determine the useful input variables which work as the time series forecasting for the LSSVM model. Monthly river flow data from two stations, the Selangor and Bernam rivers in Selangor state of Peninsular Malaysia were taken into consideration in the development of this hybrid model. The perform...

  15. Multifractal analysis of time series generated by discrete Ito equations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Telesca, Luciano [National Research Council, Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, C.da S. Loja, 85050 Tito (PZ) (Italy); Czechowski, Zbigniew [Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, 01-452 Warsaw, Ks. Janusza 64 (Poland); Lovallo, Michele [ARPAB, 85100 Potenza (Italy)

    2015-06-15

    In this study, we show that discrete Ito equations with short-tail Gaussian marginal distribution function generate multifractal time series. The multifractality is due to the nonlinear correlations, which are hidden in Markov processes and are generated by the interrelation between the drift and the multiplicative stochastic forces in the Ito equation. A link between the range of the generalized Hurst exponents and the mean of the squares of all averaged net forces is suggested.

  16. Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Wang

    2016-01-01

    (ERNN, the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices.

  17. Using Artificial Neural Networks To Forecast Financial Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Aamodt, Rune

    2010-01-01

    This thesis investigates the application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting financial time series (e.g. stock prices).The theory of technical analysis dictates that there are repeating patterns that occur in the historic prices of stocks, and that identifying these patterns can be of help in forecasting future price developments. A system was therefore developed which contains several ``agents'', each producing recommendations on the stock price based on some aspect of techn...

  18. Forecasting Stock Prices by Using Alternative Time Series Models

    OpenAIRE

    Kivilcim Metin; Gulnur Muradoglu

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to compare the forecast performance of alternative time series models, namely VAR in levels, stochastic seasonal models (SSM) and error correction models (ECM) at the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). Considering the emerging market characteristic of the ISE, stock prices are estimated by using, money supply, inflation rate, interest rates, exchange rates and budget deficits. Then, in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise from January 1995 through December 1995, comp...

  19. Seasonal modulation mixed models for time series forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Durbán, María; Lee, Dae-Jin

    2012-01-01

    We propose an extension of a seasonal modulation smooth model with P-splines for times series data using a mixed model formulation. A smooth trend with seasonality decomposition can be estimated simultaneously. We extend the model to consider the forecasting of new future observations in the mixed model framework. Two different approaches are used for forecasting in the context of mixed models, and the equivalence of both methods is shown. The methodology is illustrated with mo...

  20. Improved nonparametric confidence intervals in time series regressions

    OpenAIRE

    Romano, Joseph P.; Wolf, Michael

    2002-01-01

    Confidence intervals in time series regressions suffer from notorious coverage problems. This is especially true when the dependence in the data is noticeable and sample sizes are small to moderate, as is often the case in empirical studies. This paper proposes a method that combines prewhitening and the studentized bootstrap. While both prewhitening and the studentized bootstrap each provides improvement over standard normal theory intervals, one can achieve a further improvement by conjoini...

  1. Factor models in high-dimensional time series

    OpenAIRE

    Hallin, Marc; Lippi, Marco

    2013-01-01

    High-dimensional time series may well be the most common type of dataset in the so-called "big data" revolution, and have entered current practice in many areas, including meteorology, genomics, chemometrics, connectomics, complex physics simulations, biological and environmental research, finance and econometrics. The analysis of such datasets poses significant challenges, both from a statistical as from a numerical point of view. The most successful procedures so far have bee...

  2. Geodetic Time Series: An Overview of UNAVCO Community Resources and Examples of Time Series Analysis Using GPS and Strainmeter Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, D. A.; Meertens, C. M.; Hodgkinson, K. M.; Puskas, C. M.; Boler, F. M.; Snett, L.; Mattioli, G. S.

    2013-12-01

    We present an overview of time series data, tools and services available from UNAVCO along with two specific and compelling examples of geodetic time series analysis. UNAVCO provides a diverse suite of geodetic data products and cyberinfrastructure services to support community research and education. The UNAVCO archive includes data from 2500+ continuous GPS stations, borehole geophysics instruments (strainmeters, seismometers, tiltmeters, pore pressure sensors), and long baseline laser strainmeters. These data span temporal scales from seconds to decades and provide global spatial coverage with regionally focused networks including the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) and COCONet. This rich, open access dataset is a tremendous resource that enables the exploration, identification and analysis of time varying signals associated with crustal deformation, reference frame determinations, isostatic adjustments, atmospheric phenomena, hydrologic processes and more. UNAVCO provides a suite of time series exploration and analysis resources including static plots, dynamic plotting tools, and data products and services designed to enhance time series analysis. The PBO GPS network allow for identification of ~1 mm level deformation signals. At some GPS stations seasonal signals and longer-term trends in both the vertical and horizontal components can be dominated by effects of hydrological loading from natural and anthropogenic sources. Modeling of hydrologic deformation using GLDAS and a variety of land surface models (NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC and CLM) shows promise for independently modeling hydrologic effects and separating them from tectonic deformation as well as anthropogenic loading sources. A major challenge is to identify where loading is dominant and corrections from GLDAS can apply and where pumping is the dominant signal and corrections are not possible without some other data. In another arena, the PBO strainmeter network was designed to capture small short

  3. Detection of "hidden Regimes" In Stochastic Cyclostationary Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirth, V.

    Idealized descriptions of geophysical systems sometimes lead to stochastic differential equations characterized by a deterministic part and a stochastic part. In the case of nonlinearity the deterministic part may support multiple equilibria. For nonstationary processes such multiple equilibria are not necessarily reflected as relative maxima of the probability density function (PDF). This occurs when the duration of a regime is too short for the PDF to adjust, and such regimes are dubbed "hidden". This work focuses on cyclostationary Markovian processes. An example is given derived from a simplified model for the seasonal evolution of soil moisture. Although in summer the system is attracted to either a dry or a moist state, the evolution is slow enough for the PDF to remain unimodal throughout the year. An algorithm is presented which allows one to detect such hidden regimes given the data of the time series only. The method involves the analysis of an appropriately windowed time series, from which the drift and diffusion coefficients of the associated Fokker-Planck equation are estimated. The success of the algorithm is illustrated using synthetic time series.

  4. Modeling financial time series with S-plus

    CERN Document Server

    Zivot, Eric

    2003-01-01

    The field of financial econometrics has exploded over the last decade This book represents an integration of theory, methods, and examples using the S-PLUS statistical modeling language and the S+FinMetrics module to facilitate the practice of financial econometrics This is the first book to show the power of S-PLUS for the analysis of time series data It is written for researchers and practitioners in the finance industry, academic researchers in economics and finance, and advanced MBA and graduate students in economics and finance Readers are assumed to have a basic knowledge of S-PLUS and a solid grounding in basic statistics and time series concepts Eric Zivot is an associate professor and Gary Waterman Distinguished Scholar in the Economics Department at the University of Washington, and is co-director of the nascent Professional Master's Program in Computational Finance He regularly teaches courses on econometric theory, financial econometrics and time series econometrics, and is the recipient of the He...

  5. Clustering Multivariate Time Series Using Hidden Markov Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shima Ghassempour

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe an algorithm for clustering multivariate time series with variables taking both categorical and continuous values. Time series of this type are frequent in health care, where they represent the health trajectories of individuals. The problem is challenging because categorical variables make it difficult to define a meaningful distance between trajectories. We propose an approach based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs, where we first map each trajectory into an HMM, then define a suitable distance between HMMs and finally proceed to cluster the HMMs with a method based on a distance matrix. We test our approach on a simulated, but realistic, data set of 1,255 trajectories of individuals of age 45 and over, on a synthetic validation set with known clustering structure, and on a smaller set of 268 trajectories extracted from the longitudinal Health and Retirement Survey. The proposed method can be implemented quite simply using standard packages in R and Matlab and may be a good candidate for solving the difficult problem of clustering multivariate time series with categorical variables using tools that do not require advanced statistic knowledge, and therefore are accessible to a wide range of researchers.

  6. Time series analysis of age related cataract hospitalizations and phacoemulsification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moineddin Rahim

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cataract surgery remains a commonly performed elective surgical procedure in the aging and the elderly. The purpose of this study was to utilize time series methodology to determine the temporal and seasonal variations and the strength of the seasonality in age-related (senile cataract hospitalizations and phacoemulsification surgeries. Methods A retrospective, cross-sectional time series analysis was used to assess the presence and strength of seasonal and temporal patterns of age-related cataract hospitalizations and phacoemulsification surgeries from April 1, 1991 to March 31, 2002. Hospital admission rates for senile cataract (n = 70,281 and phacoemulsification (n = 556,431 were examined to determine monthly rates of hospitalization per 100,000 population. Time series methodology was then applied to the monthly aggregates. Results During the study period, age-related cataract hospitalizations in Ontario have declined from approximately 40 per 100,000 to only one per 100,000. Meanwhile, the use of phacoemulsification procedures has risen dramatically. The study found evidence of biannual peaks in both procedures during the spring and autumn months, and summer and winter troughs. Statistical analysis revealed significant overall seasonal patterns for both age-related cataract hospitalizations and phacoemulsifications (p Conclusion This study illustrates the decline in age-related cataract hospitalizations in Ontario resulting from the shift to outpatient phacoemulsification surgery, and demonstrates the presence of biannual peaks (a characteristic indicative of seasonality, in hospitalization and phacoemulsification during the spring and autumn throughout the study period.

  7. Complexity analysis of the UV radiation dose time series

    CERN Document Server

    Mihailovic, Dragutin T

    2013-01-01

    We have used the Lempel-Ziv and sample entropy measures to assess the complexity in the UV radiation activity in the Vojvodina region (Serbia) for the period 1990-2007. In particular, we have examined the reconstructed daily sum (dose) of the UV-B time series from seven representative places in this region and calculated the Lempel-Ziv Complexity (LZC) and Sample Entropy (SE) values for each time series. The results indicate that the LZC values in some places are close to each other while in others they differ. We have devided the period 1990-2007 into two subintervals: (a) 1990-1998 and (b) 1999-2007 and calculated LZC and SE values for the various time series in these subintervals. It is found that during the period 1999-2007, there is a decrease in their complexities, and corresponding changes in the SE, in comparison to the period 1990-1998. This complexity loss may be attributed to increased (i) human intervention in the post civil war period (land and crop use and urbanization) and military activities i...

  8. A method for generating high resolution satellite image time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Tao

    2014-10-01

    There is an increasing demand for satellite remote sensing data with both high spatial and temporal resolution in many applications. But it still is a challenge to simultaneously improve spatial resolution and temporal frequency due to the technical limits of current satellite observation systems. To this end, much R&D efforts have been ongoing for years and lead to some successes roughly in two aspects, one includes super resolution, pan-sharpen etc. methods which can effectively enhance the spatial resolution and generate good visual effects, but hardly preserve spectral signatures and result in inadequate analytical value, on the other hand, time interpolation is a straight forward method to increase temporal frequency, however it increase little informative contents in fact. In this paper we presented a novel method to simulate high resolution time series data by combing low resolution time series data and a very small number of high resolution data only. Our method starts with a pair of high and low resolution data set, and then a spatial registration is done by introducing LDA model to map high and low resolution pixels correspondingly. Afterwards, temporal change information is captured through a comparison of low resolution time series data, and then projected onto the high resolution data plane and assigned to each high resolution pixel according to the predefined temporal change patterns of each type of ground objects. Finally the simulated high resolution data is generated. A preliminary experiment shows that our method can simulate a high resolution data with a reasonable accuracy. The contribution of our method is to enable timely monitoring of temporal changes through analysis of time sequence of low resolution images only, and usage of costly high resolution data can be reduces as much as possible, and it presents a highly effective way to build up an economically operational monitoring solution for agriculture, forest, land use investigation

  9. Forecasting economic time series with unconditional time-varying variance. Int. J. Forecast.

    OpenAIRE

    Van Bellegem, Sébastien

    2004-01-01

    The classical forecasting theory of stationary time series exploits the second-order structure (variance, autocovariance, and spectral density) of an observed process in order to construct some prediction intervals. However, some economic time series show a time-varying unconditional second-order structure. This article focuses on a simple and meaningful model allowing this nonstationary behaviour. We show that this model satisfactorily explains the nonstationary behaviour of several economic...

  10. STUDIES IN ASTRONOMICAL TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. VI. BAYESIAN BLOCK REPRESENTATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it—an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks—that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piecewise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by Arias-Castro et al. In the spirit of Reproducible Research all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as supplementary material.

  11. STUDIES IN ASTRONOMICAL TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. VI. BAYESIAN BLOCK REPRESENTATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scargle, Jeffrey D. [Space Science and Astrobiology Division, MS 245-3, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035-1000 (United States); Norris, Jay P. [Physics Department, Boise State University, 2110 University Drive, Boise, ID 83725-1570 (United States); Jackson, Brad [The Center for Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Mathematics, San Jose State University, One Washington Square, MH 308, San Jose, CA 95192-0103 (United States); Chiang, James, E-mail: jeffrey.d.scargle@nasa.gov [W. W. Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory, Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Department of Physics and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States)

    2013-02-20

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piecewise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by Arias-Castro et al. In the spirit of Reproducible Research all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as supplementary material.

  12. Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Norris, Jay P.; Jackson, Brad; Chiang, James

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks [Scargle 1998]-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piece- wise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by [Arias-Castro, Donoho and Huo 2003]. In the spirit of Reproducible Research [Donoho et al. (2008)] all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as auxiliary material.

  13. Assessing Coupling Dynamics from an Ensemble of Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Germán Gómez-Herrero

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Finding interdependency relations between time series provides valuable knowledge about the processes that generated the signals. Information theory sets a natural framework for important classes of statistical dependencies. However, a reliable estimation from information-theoretic functionals is hampered when the dependency to be assessed is brief or evolves in time. Here, we show that these limitations can be partly alleviated when we have access to an ensemble of independent repetitions of the time series. In particular, we gear a data-efficient estimator of probability densities to make use of the full structure of trial-based measures. By doing so, we can obtain time-resolved estimates for a family of entropy combinations (including mutual information, transfer entropy and their conditional counterparts, which are more accurate than the simple average of individual estimates over trials. We show with simulated and real data generated by coupled electronic circuits that the proposed approach allows one to recover the time-resolved dynamics of the coupling between different subsystems.

  14. Nonlinear time-series-based adaptive control applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohler, R. R.; Rajkumar, V.; Zakrzewski, R. R.

    1991-01-01

    A control design methodology based on a nonlinear time-series reference model is presented. It is indicated by highly nonlinear simulations that such designs successfully stabilize troublesome aircraft maneuvers undergoing large changes in angle of attack as well as large electric power transients due to line faults. In both applications, the nonlinear controller was significantly better than the corresponding linear adaptive controller. For the electric power network, a flexible AC transmission system with series capacitor power feedback control is studied. A bilinear autoregressive moving average reference model is identified from system data, and the feedback control is manipulated according to a desired reference state. The control is optimized according to a predictive one-step quadratic performance index. A similar algorithm is derived for control of rapid changes in aircraft angle of attack over a normally unstable flight regime. In the latter case, however, a generalization of a bilinear time-series model reference includes quadratic and cubic terms in angle of attack.

  15. Satellite Image Time Series Decomposition Based on EEMD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun-long Kong

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Satellite Image Time Series (SITS have recently been of great interest due to the emerging remote sensing capabilities for Earth observation. Trend and seasonal components are two crucial elements of SITS. In this paper, a novel framework of SITS decomposition based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD is proposed. EEMD is achieved by sifting an ensemble of adaptive orthogonal components called Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs. EEMD is noise-assisted and overcomes the drawback of mode mixing in conventional Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD. Inspired by these advantages, the aim of this work is to employ EEMD to decompose SITS into IMFs and to choose relevant IMFs for the separation of seasonal and trend components. In a series of simulations, IMFs extracted by EEMD achieved a clear representation with physical meaning. The experimental results of 16-day compositions of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, and Global Environment Monitoring Index (GEMI time series with disturbance illustrated the effectiveness and stability of the proposed approach to monitoring tasks, such as applications for the detection of abrupt changes.

  16. Time-Series Analysis of Supergranule Characterstics at Solar Minimum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Peter E.; Pesnell, W. Dean

    2013-01-01

    Sixty days of Doppler images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) / Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) investigation during the 1996 and 2008 solar minima have been analyzed to show that certain supergranule characteristics (size, size range, and horizontal velocity) exhibit fluctuations of three to five days. Cross-correlating parameters showed a good, positive correlation between supergranulation size and size range, and a moderate, negative correlation between size range and velocity. The size and velocity do exhibit a moderate, negative correlation, but with a small time lag (less than 12 hours). Supergranule sizes during five days of co-temporal data from MDI and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) / Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) exhibit similar fluctuations with a high level of correlation between them. This verifies the solar origin of the fluctuations, which cannot be caused by instrumental artifacts according to these observations. Similar fluctuations are also observed in data simulations that model the evolution of the MDI Doppler pattern over a 60-day period. Correlations between the supergranule size and size range time-series derived from the simulated data are similar to those seen in MDI data. A simple toy-model using cumulative, uncorrelated exponential growth and decay patterns at random emergence times produces a time-series similar to the data simulations. The qualitative similarities between the simulated and the observed time-series suggest that the fluctuations arise from stochastic processes occurring within the solar convection zone. This behavior, propagating to surface manifestations of supergranulation, may assist our understanding of magnetic-field-line advection, evolution, and interaction.

  17. Soil radon time series: Surveys in seismic and volcanic areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soil radon surveys have been performed in a long term monitoring basis with SSNTD (LR 115 type II), in order to observe possible fluctuations due to high magnitude seismic events and volcanic eruptions. Five-year radon time series are available in stations located in an intense seismic zone located along the Pacific coast of Mexico. The series analyses have been performed as a function of the local seismicity and geological characteristics. A discussion is intended to explain the lack of biunivocal relation between single radon peaks and earthquakes for the long term monitoring data using SSNTDs. Examples of short term radon anomalies obtained with continuous probes are also discussed as a function of local earthquakes and meteorological perturbations. Additionally, complementary results from recent changes in the activity pattern of an active volcano indicate that degassing processes induced anomalous soil radon emanation correlated with the volcanic activity changes

  18. Research on time series mining based on shape concept time warping

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    翁颖钧; 朱仲英

    2004-01-01

    Time series is an important kind of complex data, while a growing attention has been paid to mining time series knowledge recently. Typically Euclidean distance measure is used for comparing time series. However, it may be a brittle distance measure because of less robustness. Dynamic time warp is a pattern matching algorithm based on nonlinear dynamic programming technique, however it is computationally expensive and suffered from the local shape variance. A modification algorithm named by shape DTW is presented, which uses linguistic variable concept to describe the slope feather of time series. The concept tree is developed by cloud models theory which integrates randomness and probability of uncertainty, so that it makes conversion between qualitative and quantitive knowledge. Experiments about cluster analysis on the basis of this algorithm, compared with Euclidean measure, are implemented on synthetic control chart time series. The results show that this method has strong robustness to loss of feature data due to piecewise segment preprocessing. Moreover, after the construction of shape concept tree, we can discovery knowledge of time series on different time granularity.

  19. Time series analysis of the behavior of brazilian natural rubber

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antônio Donizette de Oliveira

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The natural rubber is a non-wood product obtained of the coagulation of some lattices of forest species, being Hevea brasiliensis the main one. Native from the Amazon Region, this species was already known by the Indians before the discovery of America. The natural rubber became a product globally valued due to its multiple applications in the economy, being its almost perfect substitute the synthetic rubber derived from the petroleum. Similarly to what happens with other countless products the forecast of future prices of the natural rubber has been object of many studies. The use of models of forecast of univariate timeseries stands out as the more accurate and useful to reduce the uncertainty in the economic decision making process. This studyanalyzed the historical series of prices of the Brazilian natural rubber (R$/kg, in the Jan/99 - Jun/2006 period, in order tocharacterize the rubber price behavior in the domestic market; estimated a model for the time series of monthly natural rubberprices; and foresaw the domestic prices of the natural rubber, in the Jul/2006 - Jun/2007 period, based on the estimated models.The studied models were the ones belonging to the ARIMA family. The main results were: the domestic market of the natural rubberis expanding due to the growth of the world economy; among the adjusted models, the ARIMA (1,1,1 model provided the bestadjustment of the time series of prices of the natural rubber (R$/kg; the prognosis accomplished for the series supplied statistically adequate fittings.

  20. Monitoring Forest Regrowth Using a Multi-Platform Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabol, Donald E., Jr.; Smith, Milton O.; Adams, John B.; Gillespie, Alan R.; Tucker, Compton J.

    1996-01-01

    Over the past 50 years, the forests of western Washington and Oregon have been extensively harvested for timber. This has resulted in a heterogeneous mosaic of remaining mature forests, clear-cuts, new plantations, and second-growth stands that now occur in areas that formerly were dominated by extensive old-growth forests and younger forests resulting from fire disturbance. Traditionally, determination of seral stage and stand condition have been made using aerial photography and spot field observations, a methodology that is not only time- and resource-intensive, but falls short of providing current information on a regional scale. These limitations may be solved, in part, through the use of multispectral images which can cover large areas at spatial resolutions in the order of tens of meters. The use of multiple images comprising a time series potentially can be used to monitor land use (e.g. cutting and replanting), and to observe natural processes such as regeneration, maturation and phenologic change. These processes are more likely to be spectrally observed in a time series composed of images taken during different seasons over a long period of time. Therefore, for many areas, it may be necessary to use a variety of images taken with different imaging systems. A common framework for interpretation is needed that reduces topographic, atmospheric, instrumental, effects as well as differences in lighting geometry between images. The present state of remote-sensing technology in general use does not realize the full potential of the multispectral data in areas of high topographic relief. For example, the primary method for analyzing images of forested landscapes in the Northwest has been with statistical classifiers (e.g. parallelepiped, nearest-neighbor, maximum likelihood, etc.), often applied to uncalibrated multispectral data. Although this approach has produced useful information from individual images in some areas, landcover classes defined by these

  1. Multi-scale description and prediction of financial time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A new method is proposed that allows a reconstruction of time series based on higher order multi-scale statistics given by a hierarchical process. This method is able to model financial time series not only on a specific scale but for a range of scales. The method itself is based on the general n-scale joint probability density, which can be extracted directly from given data. It is shown how based on this n-scale statistics, general n-point probabilities can be estimated from which predictions can be achieved. Exemplary results are shown for the German DAX index. The ability to model correctly the behaviour of the original process for different scales simultaneously and in time is demonstrated. As a main result it is shown that this method is able to reproduce the known volatility cluster, although the model contains no explicit time dependence. Thus a new mechanism is shown how, in a stationary multi-scale process, volatility clustering can emerge.

  2. Identifying multiple periodicities in sparse photon event time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koen, Chris

    2016-07-01

    The data considered are event times (e.g. photon arrival times, or the occurrence of sharp pulses). The source is multiperiodic, or the data could be multiperiodic because several unresolved sources contribute to the time series. Most events may be unobserved, either because the source is intermittent, or because some events are below the detection limit. The data may also be contaminated by spurious pulses. The problem considered is the determination of the periods in the data. A two-step procedure is proposed: in the first, a likely period is identified; in the second, events associated with this periodicity are removed from the time series. The steps are repeated until the remaining events do not exhibit any periodicity. A number of period-finding methods from the literature are reviewed, and a new maximum likelihood statistic is also introduced. It is shown that the latter is competitive compared to other techniques. The proposed methodology is tested on simulated data. Observations of two rotating radio transients are discussed, but contrary to claims in the literature, no evidence for multiperiodicity could be found.

  3. Identifying Multiple Periodicities in Sparse Photon Event Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koen, Chris

    2016-04-01

    The data considered are event times (e.g. photon arrival times, or the occurrence of sharp pulses). The source is multiperiodic, or the data could be multiperiodic because several unresolved sources contribute to the time series. Most events may be unobserved, either because the source is intermittent, or because some events are below the detection limit. The data may also be contaminated by spurious pulses. The problem considered is the determination of the periods in the data. A two-step procedure is proposed: in the first, a likely period is identified; in the second, events associated with this periodicity are removed from the time series. The steps are repeated until the remaining events do not exhibit any periodicity. A number of period-finding methods from the literature are reviewed, and a new maximum likelihood statistic is also introduced. It is shown that the latter is competitive compared to other techniques. The proposed methodology is tested on simulated data. Observations of two rotating radio transients are discussed, but contrary to claims in the literature, no evidence for multiperiodicity could be found.

  4. Securing Biometric Images using Reversible Watermarking

    CERN Document Server

    Thampi, Sabu M

    2011-01-01

    Biometric security is a fast growing area. Protecting biometric data is very important since it can be misused by attackers. In order to increase security of biometric data there are different methods in which watermarking is widely accepted. A more acceptable, new important development in this area is reversible watermarking in which the original image can be completely restored and the watermark can be retrieved. But reversible watermarking in biometrics is an understudied area. Reversible watermarking maintains high quality of biometric data. This paper proposes Rotational Replacement of LSB as a reversible watermarking scheme for biometric images. PSNR is the regular method used for quality measurement of biometric data. In this paper we also show that SSIM Index is a better alternate for effective quality assessment for reversible watermarked biometric data by comparing with the well known reversible watermarking scheme using Difference Expansion.

  5. Analysing time-varying trends in stratospheric ozone time series using the state space approach

    OpenAIRE

    M. Laine; N. Latva-Pukkila; E. Kyrölä

    2014-01-01

    We describe a hierarchical statistical state space model for ozone profile time series. The time series are from satellite measurements by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II and the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) instruments spanning the years 1984–2011. Vertical ozone profiles were linearly interpolated on an altitude grid with 1 km resolution covering 20–60 km. Monthly averages were calculated for each altitude level and 10° wid...

  6. Gaze as a biometric

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Hong-Jun [ORNL; Carmichael, Tandy [Tennessee Technological University; Tourassi, Georgia [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Two people may analyze a visual scene in two completely different ways. Our study sought to determine whether human gaze may be used to establish the identity of an individual. To accomplish this objective we investigated the gaze pattern of twelve individuals viewing different still images with different spatial relationships. Specifically, we created 5 visual dot-pattern tests to be shown on a standard computer monitor. These tests challenged the viewer s capacity to distinguish proximity, alignment, and perceptual organization. Each test included 50 images of varying difficulty (total of 250 images). Eye-tracking data were collected from each individual while taking the tests. The eye-tracking data were converted into gaze velocities and analyzed with Hidden Markov Models to develop personalized gaze profiles. Using leave-one-out cross-validation, we observed that these personalized profiles could differentiate among the 12 users with classification accuracy ranging between 53% and 76%, depending on the test. This was statistically significantly better than random guessing (i.e., 8.3% or 1 out of 12). Classification accuracy was higher for the tests where the users average gaze velocity per case was lower. The study findings support the feasibility of using gaze as a biometric or personalized biomarker. These findings could have implications in Radiology training and the development of personalized e-learning environments.

  7. Analysis of Multipsectral Time Series for supporting Forest Management Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simoniello, T.; Carone, M. T.; Costantini, G.; Frattegiani, M.; Lanfredi, M.; Macchiato, M.

    2010-05-01

    Adequate forest management requires specific plans based on updated and detailed mapping. Multispectral satellite time series have been largely applied to forest monitoring and studies at different scales tanks to their capability of providing synoptic information on some basic parameters descriptive of vegetation distribution and status. As a low expensive tool for supporting forest management plans in operative context, we tested the use of Landsat-TM/ETM time series (1987-2006) in the high Agri Valley (Southern Italy) for planning field surveys as well as for the integration of existing cartography. As preliminary activity to make all scenes radiometrically consistent the no-change regression normalization was applied to the time series; then all the data concerning available forest maps, municipal boundaries, water basins, rivers, and roads were overlapped in a GIS environment. From the 2006 image we elaborated the NDVI map and analyzed the distribution for each land cover class. To separate the physiological variability and identify the anomalous areas, a threshold on the distributions was applied. To label the non homogenous areas, a multitemporal analysis was performed by separating heterogeneity due to cover changes from that linked to basilar unit mapping and classification labelling aggregations. Then a map of priority areas was produced to support the field survey plan. To analyze the territorial evolution, the historical land cover maps were elaborated by adopting a hybrid classification approach based on a preliminary segmentation, the identification of training areas, and a subsequent maximum likelihood categorization. Such an analysis was fundamental for the general assessment of the territorial dynamics and in particular for the evaluation of the efficacy of past intervention activities.

  8. Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen; Niu, Hongli

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, financial market dynamics forecasting has been a focus of economic research. To predict the price indices of stock markets, we developed an architecture which combined Elman recurrent neural networks with stochastic time effective function. By analyzing the proposed model with the linear regression, complexity invariant distance (CID), and multiscale CID (MCID) analysis methods and taking the model compared with different models such as the backpropagation neural network (BPNN), the stochastic time effective neural network (STNN), and the Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN), the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices. PMID:27293423

  9. VARTOOLS: A Program for Analyzing Astronomical Time-Series Data

    CERN Document Server

    Hartman, Joel D

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the VARTOOLS program, which is an open-source command-line utility, written in C, for analyzing astronomical time-series data, especially light curves. The program provides a general-purpose set of tools for processing light curves including signal identification, filtering, light curve manipulation, time conversions, and modeling and simulating light curves. Some of the routines implemented include the Generalized Lomb-Scargle periodogram, the Box-Least Squares transit search routine, the Analysis of Variance periodogram, the Discrete Fourier Transform including the CLEAN algorithm, the Weighted Wavelet Z-Transform, light curve arithmetic, linear and non-linear optimization of analytic functions including support for Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses with non-trivial covariances, characterizing and/or simulating time-correlated noise, and the TFA and SYSREM filtering algorithms, among others. A mechanism is also provided for incorporating a user's own compiled processing routines into th...

  10. Detecting and characterising ramp events in wind power time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to implement accurate models for wind power ramp forecasting, ramps need to be previously characterised. This issue has been typically addressed by performing binary ramp/non-ramp classifications based on ad-hoc assessed thresholds. However, recent works question this approach. This paper presents the ramp function, an innovative wavelet- based tool which detects and characterises ramp events in wind power time series. The underlying idea is to assess a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step, which is obtained by considering large power output gradients evaluated under different time scales (up to typical ramp durations). The ramp function overcomes some of the drawbacks shown by the aforementioned binary classification and permits forecasters to easily reveal specific features of the ramp behaviour observed at a wind farm. As an example, the daily profile of the ramp-up and ramp-down intensities are obtained for the case of a wind farm located in Spain

  11. Financial Time Series Prediction Using Elman Recurrent Random Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Wang, Jun; Fang, Wen; Niu, Hongli

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, financial market dynamics forecasting has been a focus of economic research. To predict the price indices of stock markets, we developed an architecture which combined Elman recurrent neural networks with stochastic time effective function. By analyzing the proposed model with the linear regression, complexity invariant distance (CID), and multiscale CID (MCID) analysis methods and taking the model compared with different models such as the backpropagation neural network (BPNN), the stochastic time effective neural network (STNN), and the Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN), the empirical results show that the proposed neural network displays the best performance among these neural networks in financial time series forecasting. Further, the empirical research is performed in testing the predictive effects of SSE, TWSE, KOSPI, and Nikkei225 with the established model, and the corresponding statistical comparisons of the above market indices are also exhibited. The experimental results show that this approach gives good performance in predicting the values from the stock market indices. PMID:27293423

  12. Compressed ECG biometric: a fast, secured and efficient method for identification of CVD patient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sufi, Fahim; Khalil, Ibrahim; Mahmood, Abdun

    2011-12-01

    Adoption of compression technology is often required for wireless cardiovascular monitoring, due to the enormous size of Electrocardiography (ECG) signal and limited bandwidth of Internet. However, compressed ECG must be decompressed before performing human identification using present research on ECG based biometric techniques. This additional step of decompression creates a significant processing delay for identification task. This becomes an obvious burden on a system, if this needs to be done for a trillion of compressed ECG per hour by the hospital. Even though the hospital might be able to come up with an expensive infrastructure to tame the exuberant processing, for small intermediate nodes in a multihop network identification preceded by decompression is confronting. In this paper, we report a technique by which a person can be identified directly from his / her compressed ECG. This technique completely obviates the step of decompression and therefore upholds biometric identification less intimidating for the smaller nodes in a multihop network. The biometric template created by this new technique is lower in size compared to the existing ECG based biometrics as well as other forms of biometrics like face, finger, retina etc. (up to 8302 times lower than face template and 9 times lower than existing ECG based biometric template). Lower size of the template substantially reduces the one-to-many matching time for biometric recognition, resulting in a faster biometric authentication mechanism. PMID:20703779

  13. Time series prediction of mining subsidence based on a SVM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Peixian; Tan Zhixiang; Yah Lili; Deng Kazhong

    2011-01-01

    In order to study dynamic laws of surface movements over coal mines due to mining activities,a dynamic prediction model of surface movements was established,based on the theory of support vector machines (SVM) and times-series analysis.An engineering application was used to verify the correctness of the model.Measurements from observation stations were analyzed and processed to obtain equal-time interval surface movement data and subjected to tests of stationary,zero means and normality.Then the data were used to train the SVM model.A time series model was established to predict mining subsidence by rational choices of embedding dimensions and SVM parameters.MAPE and WIA were used asindicators to evaluate the accuracy of the model and for generalization performance.In the end,the model was used to predict future surface movements.Data from observation stations in Huaibei coal mining area were used as an example.The results show that the maximum absolute error of subsidence is 9 mm,the maximum relative error 1.5%.the maximum absolute error of displacement 7 mm and the maximum relative error 1.8%.The accuracy and reliability of the model meet the requirements of on-site engineering.The results of the study provide a new approach to investigate the dynamics of surface movements.

  14. GPS time series at Campi Flegrei caldera (2000-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prospero De Martino

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The Campi Flegrei caldera is an active volcanic system associated to a high volcanic risk, and represents a well known and peculiar example of ground deformations (bradyseism, characterized by intense uplift periods, followed by subsidence phases with some episodic superimposed mini-uplifts. Ground deformation is an important volcanic precursor, and, its continuous monitoring, is one of the main tool for short time forecast of eruptive activity. This paper provides an overview of the continuous GPS monitoring of the Campi Flegrei caldera from January 2000 to July 2013, including network operations, data recording and processing, and data products. In this period the GPS time series allowed continuous and accurate tracking of ground deformation of the area. Seven main uplift episodes were detected, and during each uplift period, the recurrent horizontal displacement pattern, radial from the “caldera center”, suggests no significant change in deformation source geometry and location occurs. The complete archive of GPS time series at Campi Flegrei area is reported in the Supplementary materials. These data can be usefull for the scientific community in improving the research on Campi Flegrei caldera dynamic and hazard assessment.

  15. Reconstruction of Ordinary Differential Equations From Time Series Data

    CERN Document Server

    Mai, Manuel; O'Hern, Corey S

    2016-01-01

    We develop a numerical method to reconstruct systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) from time series data without {\\it a priori} knowledge of the underlying ODEs using sparse basis learning and sparse function reconstruction. We show that employing sparse representations provides more accurate ODE reconstruction compared to least-squares reconstruction techniques for a given amount of time series data. We test and validate the ODE reconstruction method on known 1D, 2D, and 3D systems of ODEs. The 1D system possesses two stable fixed points; the 2D system possesses an oscillatory fixed point with closed orbits; and the 3D system displays chaotic dynamics on a strange attractor. We determine the amount of data required to achieve an error in the reconstructed functions to less than $0.1\\%$. For the reconstructed 1D and 2D systems, we are able to match the trajectories from the original ODEs even at long times. For the 3D system with chaotic dynamics, as expected, the trajectories from the original an...

  16. A New Correlation Coefficient for Bivariate Time-Series Data

    OpenAIRE

    Orhan Erdem; Elvan Ceyhan; Yusuf Varlı

    2011-01-01

    Correlation in time series has recently recieved a lot of attentions. Its usage has been getting an important role in Social Science and Finance. For example, pair trading in Finance is interested with the correlation between stock prices, returns etc. In general, Pearsonís correlation coefficient is seen in the area, although it has many assumptions which restrict its usage. In here, we introduce a new correlation coe¢ cient which takes account the lag difference of data points as a moment. ...

  17. Estimation of dynamic flux profiles from metabolic time series data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chou I-Chun

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Advances in modern high-throughput techniques of molecular biology have enabled top-down approaches for the estimation of parameter values in metabolic systems, based on time series data. Special among them is the recent method of dynamic flux estimation (DFE, which uses such data not only for parameter estimation but also for the identification of functional forms of the processes governing a metabolic system. DFE furthermore provides diagnostic tools for the evaluation of model validity and of the quality of a model fit beyond residual errors. Unfortunately, DFE works only when the data are more or less complete and the system contains as many independent fluxes as metabolites. These drawbacks may be ameliorated with other types of estimation and information. However, such supplementations incur their own limitations. In particular, assumptions must be made regarding the functional forms of some processes and detailed kinetic information must be available, in addition to the time series data. Results The authors propose here a systematic approach that supplements DFE and overcomes some of its shortcomings. Like DFE, the approach is model-free and requires only minimal assumptions. If sufficient time series data are available, the approach allows the determination of a subset of fluxes that enables the subsequent applicability of DFE to the rest of the flux system. The authors demonstrate the procedure with three artificial pathway systems exhibiting distinct characteristics and with actual data of the trehalose pathway in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Conclusions The results demonstrate that the proposed method successfully complements DFE under various situations and without a priori assumptions regarding the model representation. The proposed method also permits an examination of whether at all, to what degree, or within what range the available time series data can be validly represented in a particular functional format of

  18. Another Adaptive Approach to Novelty Detection in Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matous Cejnek

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a novel approach to novelty d etection of every individual sample of data in a time series. The novelty detection is based on the knowledge learned by neural networks and the consistency of data with contemporary gover ning law. In particular, the relationship of prediction error with the adaptive weight increment s by gradient decent is shown, as the modification of the recently introduced adaptive ap proach of novelty detection. Static and dynamic neural network models are shown on theoreti cal data as well as on a real ECG signal.

  19. Optimization of recurrent neural networks for time series modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Morten With

    1997-01-01

    solution obtained as well as computation time required. 3. A theoretical definition of the generalization error for recurrent networks is provided. This definition justifies a commonly adopted approach for estimating generalization ability. 4. The viability of pruning recurrent networks by the Optimal...... observed series. Two recurrent models rooted in statistical physics are considered in this respect, namely the ``Boltzmann chain'' and the ``Boltzmann zipper'' and a comprehensive tutorial on these models is provided. Boltzmann chains and zippers are found to benefit as well from second-order training and...

  20. Multifractal Time Series Analysis Based on Detrended Fluctuation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kantelhardt, Jan; Stanley, H. Eugene; Zschiegner, Stephan; Bunde, Armin; Koscielny-Bunde, Eva; Havlin, Shlomo

    2002-03-01

    In order to develop an easily applicable method for the multifractal characterization of non-stationary time series, we generalize the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), which is a well-established method for the determination of the monofractal scaling properties and the detection of long-range correlations. We relate the new multifractal DFA method to the standard partition function-based multifractal formalism, and compare it to the wavelet transform modulus maxima (WTMM) method which is a well-established, but more difficult procedure for this purpose. We employ the multifractal DFA method to determine if the heartrhythm during different sleep stages is characterized by different multifractal properties.

  1. Time series analysis using semiparametric regression on oil palm production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yundari, Pasaribu, U. S.; Mukhaiyar, U.

    2016-04-01

    This paper presents semiparametric kernel regression method which has shown its flexibility and easiness in mathematical calculation, especially in estimating density and regression function. Kernel function is continuous and it produces a smooth estimation. The classical kernel density estimator is constructed by completely nonparametric analysis and it is well reasonable working for all form of function. Here, we discuss about parameter estimation in time series analysis. First, we consider the parameters are exist, then we use nonparametrical estimation which is called semiparametrical. The selection of optimum bandwidth is obtained by considering the approximation of Mean Integrated Square Root Error (MISE).

  2. Time series analysis for minority game simulations of financial markets

    CERN Document Server

    Ferreira, F F; Machado, B S; Muruganandam, P

    2003-01-01

    The minority game model introduced recently provides promising insights into the understanding of the evolution of prices, indices and rates in the financial markets. In this paper we perform a time series analysis of the model employing tools from statistics, dynamical systems theory and stochastic processes. Using benchmark systems and a financial index for comparison, we draw conclusions about the generating mechanism for this kind of evolution. The trajectories of the model are found to be similar to that of the first differences of the SP500 index: stochastic, nonlinear and (unit root) stationary.

  3. Nonlinear Time Series Forecast Using Radial Basis Function Neural Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHENG Xin; CHEN Tian-Lun

    2003-01-01

    In the research of using Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBF NN) forecasting nonlinear timeseries, we investigate how the different clusterings affect the process of learning and forecasting. We find that k-meansclustering is very suitable. In order to increase the precision we introduce a nonlinear feedback term to escape from thelocal minima of energy, then we use the model to forecast the nonlinear time series which are produced by Mackey-Glassequation and stocks. By selecting the k-means clustering and the suitable feedback term, much better forecasting resultsare obtained.

  4. Forecasting incidence of dengue in Rajasthan, using time series analyses

    OpenAIRE

    Sunil Bhatnagar; Vivek Lal; Shiv D. Gupta; Om P Gupta

    2012-01-01

    Aim: To develop a prediction model for dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) using time series data over the past decade in Rajasthan and to forecast monthly DF/DHF incidence for 2011. Materials and Methods: Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used for statistical modeling. Results: During January 2001 to December 2010, the reported DF/DHF cases showed a cyclical pattern with seasonal variation. SARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,1) 12 model had the lowest normaliz...

  5. Testing for Changes in the Rank Correlation of Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Dehling, Herold; Vogel, Daniel; Wendler, Martin; Wied, Dominik

    2012-01-01

    For a bivariate time series $((X_i,Y_i))_{i=1,...,n}$ we want to detect whether the correlation between $X_i$ and $Y_i$ stays constant for all $i = 1,...,n$. We propose a nonparametric change-point test statistic based on Kendall's tau and derive its asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis of no change by means a new U-statistic invariance principle for dependent processes. The asymptotic distribution depends on the long run variance of Kendall's tau, for which we propose an estimat...

  6. Albedo Pattern Recognition and Time-Series Analyses in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salleh, S. A.; Abd Latif, Z.; Mohd, W. M. N. Wan; Chan, A.

    2012-07-01

    Pattern recognition and time-series analyses will enable one to evaluate and generate predictions of specific phenomena. The albedo pattern and time-series analyses are very much useful especially in relation to climate condition monitoring. This study is conducted to seek for Malaysia albedo pattern changes. The pattern recognition and changes will be useful for variety of environmental and climate monitoring researches such as carbon budgeting and aerosol mapping. The 10 years (2000-2009) MODIS satellite images were used for the analyses and interpretation. These images were being processed using ERDAS Imagine remote sensing software, ArcGIS 9.3, the 6S code for atmospherical calibration and several MODIS tools (MRT, HDF2GIS, Albedo tools). There are several methods for time-series analyses were explored, this paper demonstrates trends and seasonal time-series analyses using converted HDF format MODIS MCD43A3 albedo land product. The results revealed significance changes of albedo percentages over the past 10 years and the pattern with regards to Malaysia's nebulosity index (NI) and aerosol optical depth (AOD). There is noticeable trend can be identified with regards to its maximum and minimum value of the albedo. The rise and fall of the line graph show a similar trend with regards to its daily observation. The different can be identified in term of the value or percentage of rises and falls of albedo. Thus, it can be concludes that the temporal behavior of land surface albedo in Malaysia have a uniform behaviours and effects with regards to the local monsoons. However, although the average albedo shows linear trend with nebulosity index, the pattern changes of albedo with respects to the nebulosity index indicates that there are external factors that implicates the albedo values, as the sky conditions and its diffusion plotted does not have uniform trend over the years, especially when the trend of 5 years interval is examined, 2000 shows high negative linear

  7. Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area

  8. DMC modified algorithm based on time series prediction principle

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    齐维贵; 朱学莉

    2002-01-01

    The application of heating load prediction and predictive control to the heat supply system for energysaving and high quality heat supply is discussed by first introducing the time series prediction principle, and thesequence model, parameter identification and least variance prediction principle, and then giving the heatingload and model error prediction based on this principle. As an improvement of DMC algorithm, the load predic-tion is used as a set point of DMC, and the prediction error is used as a corrected value of predictive control.Finally, the simulation results of two prediction methods to heat supply system are given.

  9. Univariate time series in geosciences theory and examples

    CERN Document Server

    Gilgen, Hans

    2006-01-01

    The author introduces the statistical analysis of geophysical time series. The book includes also a chapter with an introduction to geostatistics, many examples and exercises which help the reader to work with typical problems. More complex derivations are provided in appendix-like supplements to each chapter. Readers are assumed to have a basic grounding in statistics and analysis. The reader is invited to learn actively from genuine geophysical data. He has to consider the applicability of statistical methods, to propose, estimate, evaluate and compare statistical models, and to draw conclus

  10. Wavelet Space Partitioning for Symbolic Time Series Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Venkatesh Rajagopalan; Asok Ray

    2006-01-01

    @@ A crucial step in symbolic time series analysis (STSA) of observed data is symbol sequence generation that relies on partitioning the phase-space of the underlying dynamical system. We present a novel partitioning method,called wavelet-space (WS) partitioning, as an alternative to symbolic false nearest neighbour (SFNN) partitioning.While the WS and SFNN partitioning methods have been demonstrated to yield comparable performance for anomaly detection on laboratory apparatuses, computation of WS partitioning is several orders of magnitude faster than that of the SFNN partitioning.

  11. Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faggini, Marisa, E-mail: mfaggini@unisa.it [Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università di Salerno, Fisciano 84084 (Italy)

    2014-12-15

    The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area.

  12. A parametric model for discrete- valued time series

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Janžura, Martin; Fialová, Lucie

    Bratislava : Mathematical institute, Slovak Academy of Sciences, 2008 - (Pázman, A.; Volaufová, J.; Witkovský, V.), s. 155-163 ISSN 1210-3195. - (Tatra Mountains Mathematical Publications. 39). [Probastat 06. Smolenice (SK), 05.06.2006-09.06.2006] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/06/1323 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Markov Chains * Gibbs distributions * statistical estimation Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/SI/janzura-a parametric model for discrete- valued time series.pdf

  13. Time series ARIMA models for daily price of palm oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd; Zamhawari, Nor Hashimah; Bakar, Mohd Aftar Abu

    2015-02-01

    Palm oil is deemed as one of the most important commodity that forms the economic backbone of Malaysia. Modeling and forecasting the daily price of palm oil is of great interest for Malaysia's economic growth. In this study, time series ARIMA models are used to fit the daily price of palm oil. The Akaike Infromation Criterion (AIC), Akaike Infromation Criterion with a correction for finite sample sizes (AICc) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used to compare between different ARIMA models being considered. It is found that ARIMA(1,2,1) model is suitable for daily price of crude palm oil in Malaysia for the year 2010 to 2012.

  14. Imputing Human Descriptions in Semantic Biometrics

    OpenAIRE

    Reid, Daniel; Nixon, Mark

    2010-01-01

    Human identification at a distance has received significant interest due to the ever increasing surveillance infrastructure. Biometrics such as face and gait offer a suitable physical attribute to uniquely identify people from a distance. When linking this with human perception, these biometrics suffer from the semantic gap which is the difference between how people and how biometrics represent and describe humans. Semantic biometrics bridges this gap, allowing conversions between gait biomet...

  15. An Adaptive Multimodal Biometrics System using PSO

    OpenAIRE

    Ola M. Aly; Tarek A. Mahmoud; Gouda I. Salama; Hoda M. Onsi

    2013-01-01

    Multimodal biometric systems which fuse information from a number of biometrics, are gaining more attentions lately because they are able to overcome limitations in unimodal biometric systems. These systems are suited for high security applications. Most of the proposed multibiometric systems offer one level of security. In this paper a new approach for adaptive combination of multiple biometrics has been proposed to ensure multiple levels of security. The score level fusion rule is adapted u...

  16. Biometrics as security technology: Expansion amidst fallibility

    OpenAIRE

    Jacobsen, Katja Lindskov

    2012-01-01

    Biometric technology has been afforded a central role in the security architecture that Western governments have forged since the events of 9/11 2001. With biometrics the body becomes the anchor of identification. In a security architecture centred on identification of persons of interest and determination of their status as friend or foe, biometrics has come to be praised for its supposedly exceptional capacity to identify reliably. This report situates the use of biometrics as a security te...

  17. Biometrics for electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores Zuniga, Alejandro Enrique; Win, Khin Than; Susilo, Willy

    2010-10-01

    Securing electronic health records, in scenarios in which the provision of care services is share among multiple actors, could become a complex and costly activity. Correct identification of patients and physician, protection of privacy and confidentiality, assignment of access permissions for healthcare providers and resolutions of conflicts rise as main points of concern in the development of interconnected health information networks. Biometric technologies have been proposed as a possible technological solution for these issues due to its ability to provide a mechanism for unique verification of an individual identity. This paper presents an analysis of the benefit as well as disadvantages offered by biometric technology. A comparison between this technology and more traditional identification methods is used to determine the key benefits and flaws of the use biometric in health information systems. The comparison as been made considering the viability of the technologies for medical environments, global security needs, the contemplation of a share care environment and the costs involved in the implementation and maintenance of such technologies. This paper also discusses alternative uses for biometrics technologies in health care environments. The outcome of this analysis lays in the fact that even when biometric technologies offer several advantages over traditional method of identification, they are still in the early stages of providing a suitable solution for a health care environment. PMID:20703610

  18. Feasibility of real-time calculation of correlation integral derived statistics applied to EGG time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Broek, PLC; van Egmond, J; van Rijn, CM; Takens, F; Coenen, AML; Booij, LHDJ

    2005-01-01

    Background: This study assessed the feasibility of online calculation of the correlation integral (C(r)) aiming to apply C(r)derived statistics. For real-time application it is important to reduce calculation time. It is shown how our method works for EEG time series. Methods: To achieve online calc

  19. Feasibility of real-time calculation of correlation integral derived statistics applied to EEG time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broek, P.L.C. van den; Egmond, J. van; Rijn, C.M. van; Takens, F.; Coenen, A.M.L.; Booij, L.H.D.J.

    2005-01-01

    This study assessed the feasibility of online calculation of the correlation integral (C(r)) aiming to apply C(r)-derived statistics. For real-time application it is important to reduce calculation time. It is shown how our method works for EEG time series. Methods: To achieve online calculation of

  20. Can soft biometric traits assist user recognition?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Anil K.; Dass, Sarat C.; Nandakumar, Karthik

    2004-08-01

    Biometrics is rapidly gaining acceptance as the technology that can meet the ever increasing need for security in critical applications. Biometric systems automatically recognize individuals based on their physiological and behavioral characteristics. Hence, the fundamental requirement of any biometric recognition system is a human trait having several desirable properties like universality, distinctiveness, permanence, collectability, acceptability, and resistance to circumvention. However, a human characteristic that possesses all these properties has not yet been identified. As a result, none of the existing biometric systems provide perfect recognition and there is a scope for improving the performance of these systems. Although characteristics like gender, ethnicity, age, height, weight and eye color are not unique and reliable, they provide some information about the user. We refer to these characteristics as "soft" biometric traits and argue that these traits can complement the identity information provided by the primary biometric identifiers like fingerprint and face. This paper presents the motivation for utilizing soft biometric information and analyzes how the soft biometric traits can be automatically extracted and incorporated in the decision making process of the primary biometric system. Preliminary experiments were conducted on a fingerprint database of 160 users by synthetically generating soft biometric traits like gender, ethnicity, and height based on known statistics. The results show that the use of additional soft biometric user information significantly improves (approximately 6%) the recognition performance of the fingerprint biometric system.