Beyond the bioclimatic

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Potangaroa, R.T.

2006-01-01

Central to the bioclimatic skyscraper design of architect Ken Yeang has been the adoption of passive energy approaches to achieve both economic and economic and ecological benefits. Such as approach sough to lower energy consumption by utilizing for example natural ventilation for thermal cooling and then supplementing that with active or mechanical means to achieve the required thermal comfort for building occupants. In addition, building occupants also expected and enhanced experience, an experience that Yeang created using: planting and vegetation, deep and high sky gardens and courtyards, facades that acted as buffers and filters rather than sealing the outside, the use of wind for natural ventilation. This paper focuses on the natural ventilation component of this approach and reviews the techniques that Yeang suggests (such as core location, building orientation, air wells, sun shades and solar orientation) and reviews their impact on the natural ventilation potential of the building. The development of new tools now allows designers to quantify the impact of such measures and thus presents the opportunity for designers to create better quality buildings that are not only healthy for occupants, economic for building owners but also inspirational for all

Bioclimatic Thresholds, Thermal Constants and Survival of Mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) in Response to Constant Temperatures on Hibiscus

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Sreedevi, Gudapati; Prasad, Yenumula Gerard; Prabhakar, Mathyam; Rao, Gubbala Ramachandra; Vennila, Sengottaiyan; Venkateswarlu, Bandi

2013-01-01

Temperature-driven development and survival rates of the mealybug, Phenacoccussolenopsis Tinsley (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) were examined at nine constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 27, 30, 32, 35 and 40°C) on hibiscus ( Hibiscus rosa -sinensis L.). Crawlers successfully completed development to adult stage between 15 and 35°C, although their survival was affected at low temperatures. Two linear and four nonlinear models were fitted to describe developmental rates of P . solenopsis as a function of temperature, and for estimating thermal constants and bioclimatic thresholds (lower, optimum and upper temperature thresholds for development: Tmin, Topt and Tmax, respectively). Estimated thresholds between the two linear models were statistically similar. Ikemoto and Takai’s linear model permitted testing the equivalence of lower developmental thresholds for life stages of P . solenopsis reared on two hosts, hibiscus and cotton. Thermal constants required for completion of cumulative development of female and male nymphs and for the whole generation were significantly lower on hibiscus (222.2, 237.0, 308.6 degree-days, respectively) compared to cotton. Three nonlinear models performed better in describing the developmental rate for immature instars and cumulative life stages of female and male and for generation based on goodness-of-fit criteria. The simplified β type distribution function estimated Topt values closer to the observed maximum rates. Thermodynamic SSI model indicated no significant differences in the intrinsic optimum temperature estimates for different geographical populations of P . solenopsis . The estimated bioclimatic thresholds and the observed survival rates of P . solenopsis indicate the species to be high-temperature adaptive, and explained the field abundance of P . solenopsis on its host plants. PMID:24086597

Bioclimatic thresholds, thermal constants and survival of mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis (hemiptera: pseudococcidae) in response to constant temperatures on hibiscus.

Science.gov (United States)

Sreedevi, Gudapati; Prasad, Yenumula Gerard; Prabhakar, Mathyam; Rao, Gubbala Ramachandra; Vennila, Sengottaiyan; Venkateswarlu, Bandi

2013-01-01

Temperature-driven development and survival rates of the mealybug, Phenacoccussolenopsis Tinsley (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) were examined at nine constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 27, 30, 32, 35 and 40°C) on hibiscus (Hibiscusrosa -sinensis L.). Crawlers successfully completed development to adult stage between 15 and 35°C, although their survival was affected at low temperatures. Two linear and four nonlinear models were fitted to describe developmental rates of P. solenopsis as a function of temperature, and for estimating thermal constants and bioclimatic thresholds (lower, optimum and upper temperature thresholds for development: Tmin, Topt and Tmax, respectively). Estimated thresholds between the two linear models were statistically similar. Ikemoto and Takai's linear model permitted testing the equivalence of lower developmental thresholds for life stages of P. solenopsis reared on two hosts, hibiscus and cotton. Thermal constants required for completion of cumulative development of female and male nymphs and for the whole generation were significantly lower on hibiscus (222.2, 237.0, 308.6 degree-days, respectively) compared to cotton. Three nonlinear models performed better in describing the developmental rate for immature instars and cumulative life stages of female and male and for generation based on goodness-of-fit criteria. The simplified β type distribution function estimated Topt values closer to the observed maximum rates. Thermodynamic SSI model indicated no significant differences in the intrinsic optimum temperature estimates for different geographical populations of P. solenopsis. The estimated bioclimatic thresholds and the observed survival rates of P. solenopsis indicate the species to be high-temperature adaptive, and explained the field abundance of P. solenopsis on its host plants.

Analysis of the bioclimatic strategies used by Frank Lloyd Wright in the Jacobs I house

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M. Beltrán-Fernández

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Frank Lloyd Wright is considered one of the most influential architects of modern architecture due to the spatial and aesthetic qualities of his work. However, the importance of Wright’s construction and environmental solutions has been usually overlooked. In order to evaluate these qualities, the first house that Wright designed for the Jacobs family (Wisconsin, USA, 1937 has been analyzed. This well-known building has been much studied, and its architectural value much celebrated, but without analysing the advantages of the bioclimatic principles over interior environment. But how can the influence of this bioclimatic architecture be measured in terms of thermal comfort? Does the selected orientation improve interior comfort? And what about the natural ventilation or the deep overhangs? In order to assess this, a digital model for energy simulation has been built using Revit and Design Builder.

A bioclimatic approach to predict global regions with suitable climate space for Puccina psidii

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J. W. Hanna; R. N. Graca; M. -S. Kim; A. L. Ross-Davis; R. D. Hauff; J. W. Uchida; C. Y. Kadooka; M. B. Rayamajhi; M. Arguedas Gamboa; D. J. Lodge; R. Medel Medel-Ortiz; A. Lopez Ramirez; P. G. Cannon; A. C. Alfenas; N. B. Klopfenstein

2012-01-01

Puccinia psidii, the cause of eucalypt-guava-'ohi'a-myrtle rust, can infect diverse plants within the Myrtaceae, and this rust pathogen has the potential to threaten numerous forest ecosystems worldwide. Known occurrence records from Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, Costa Rica, USA (Hawaii, Florida, and Puerto Rico), and Japan were used to develop bioclimatic...

Guide of the bio-climatic architecture; Guide de l'architecture bioclimatique

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Liebard, A [Observateur des Energies Renouvelables 75 - Paris (France); Herde, A de [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

2004-07-01

This guide is the part six of a fundamental course on the bio-climatic architecture. This part is devoted to the urban development and the sustainable development in Europe. The context and the definitions of a sustainable town are proposed in the first part. The second part deals with the today tools, as the environmental policies, the urban development and economy, the HQE (high environmental quality) approach and the renewable energies use in urban areas. The third part proposes some applications of a sustainable urbanization, a climatic town planing and the energy conservation. (A.L.B.)

Principles of bioclimatic architecture applied at the project of spa center at Stara Planina mountain

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Marić Igor

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Application of bioclimatic parameters in the design of tourist objects is an important factor for reducing energy consumption and preserving the environment. It represents the response to constant changing of climate conditions. Given the fact that development of tourism has negative consequences on the environment, it is necessary to examine the way design process can affect the reduction of energy and environmental pollution. This paper analyzes the principles of bioclimatic planning and design of the Spa Center at the Balkan Mountain that is one of the most valuable ecosystems in Serbia. Adaptation to the existing climate change was analyzed on two levels. The first level was urban factors that include analysis of local climate and environment that affect the positioning of the object and preliminary form. The second level was architecture factors with technical and technological solutions that can be achieved through the application of climate and energy responsible designing. Final analyses indicate that the bioclimatic approach is necessary in the initial stage of setting preliminary design for the building, because later it would take more effort to install technology that requires time and the whole process makes much more expensive. The work indicates that the energy needs of optimized Spa center like represented, from the very beginning of planning and designing, can be drastically reduced.

Guide of the bio-climatic architecture; Guide de l'architecture bioclimatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liebard, A. [Observateur des Energies Renouvelables 75 - Paris (France); Herde, A. de [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

2004-07-01

This guide is the part six of a fundamental course on the bio-climatic architecture. This part is devoted to the urban development and the sustainable development in Europe. The context and the definitions of a sustainable town are proposed in the first part. The second part deals with the today tools, as the environmental policies, the urban development and economy, the HQE (high environmental quality) approach and the renewable energies use in urban areas. The third part proposes some applications of a sustainable urbanization, a climatic town planing and the energy conservation. (A.L.B.)

Bioclimatic Architecture; Arquitectura Bioclimatica

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Rubenak, Joseph C [A.G.I.S.A., Mexico D.F. (Mexico)

2005-07-01

The idea of the Bioclimatic Architecture comes from the term used by the Olgyay brothers, to emphasize the relations and connections between life, the climate and the bonds of these natural factors with the design. These base a method so that the development of the design responds in terms of function and comfort to the climatic implications that give context to the architectonic projects. The central objective is the creation of expressive spaces and aesthetically harmonic whose characteristics privilege the function of the building with optimal conditions for physical and psychological comfort for those who live, operate or use the building. [Spanish] La idea de la arquitectura bioclimatica proviene del termino utilizado por los hermanos Olgyay, para resaltar las relaciones y enlaces entre la vida, el clima y los vinculos de estos factores naturales con el diseno. Estos fundamentan un metodo para que el desarrollo del diseno responda en terminos de funcion y confort a las implicaciones climaticas que dan contexto a los proyectos arquitectonicos. El objetivo central es la creacion de espacios expresivos y esteticamente armonicos cuyas caracteristicas privilegien la funcion del inmueble con optimas condiciones de comodidad fisica y psicologica para quienes viven, operan o utilizan el edificio.

Energetic urbanism and bioclimatic architecture; Urabanismo energetico y arquitectura bioclimatica: cuestion de escala

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Turegano, J. A.; Velasco, C.; Martinez, A.

2004-07-01

Bioclimatic design allows the optimization in buildings thermal behavior in the location conditions provided. These conditions might not be appropriate, as what happens in urban environment, so design profit is minimum in these cases. The paper analyzes an alternative consisting on going from building scale to urban projects scale, analyzing the criteria to keep in mind when designing the General Plan or Partial plans, so that the most favorable conditions are guaranteed while considering limiting factors for the planning design flexibility, as road preferences. So, each building will meet conditions of realistic bioclimatic design application considering previously mentioned concepts and solar gains, as shown by real data analysis. (Author)

BIOCLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF PLOVDIV AND THE REGION

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Galina Mosolova

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In present study the authors aim to characterize the bioclimate of Plovdiv and the region by applying a set of bioclimatic indices: equivalent temperature (EΤ˚, equivalency-effective temperature (EET˚, normal equivalent temperature, radiation-equivalent-effective temperature (REET. For the cold part of the year the following cooling indices are applied: the Arnold method, the Sapp and Pascal method, and the Bodman method. Climate data from the NIHM reference books about Hissarya, Sadovo, Plovdiv, Asenovgrad and Boykovo and weather forecasts were used.

Gypsophila bermejoi G. López: A possible case of speciation repressed by bioclimatic factors.

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de Luis, Miguel; Bartolomé, Carmen; García Cardo, Óscar; Álvarez-Jiménez, Julio

2018-01-01

Gypsophila bermejoi G. López is an allopolyploid species derived from the parental G. struthium L. subsp. struthium and G. tomentosa L. All these plants are gypsophytes endemic to the Iberian Peninsula of particular ecological, evolutionary and biochemical interest. In this study, we present evidence of a possible repression on the process of G. bermejoi speciation by climatic factors. We modelled the ecological niches of the three taxa considered here using a maximum entropy approach and employing a series of bioclimatic variables. Subsequently, we projected these models onto the geographical space of the Iberian Peninsula in the present age and at two past ages: the Last Glacial Maximum and the mid-Holocene period. Furthermore, we compared these niches using the statistical method devised by Warren to calculate their degree of overlap. We also evaluated the evolution of the bioclimatic habitat suitability at those sites were the soil favors the growth of these species. Both the maximum entropy model and the degree of overlap indicated that the ecological behavior of the hybrid differs notably from that of the parental species. During the Last Glacial Maximum, the two parental species appear to take refuge in the western coastal strip of the Peninsula, a region in which there are virtually no sites where G. bermejoi could potentially be found. However, in the mid-Holocene period the suitability of G. bermejoi to sites with favorable soils shifts from almost null to a strong adaptation, a clear change in this tendency. These results suggest that the ecological niches of hybrid allopolyploids can be considerably different to those of their parental species, which may have evolutionary and ecologically relevant consequences. The data obtained indicate that certain bioclimatic variables may possibly repress the processes by which new species are formed. The difference in the ecological niche of G. bermejoi with respect to its parental species prevented it from

Natural centre and sustainable development in Pirineos: bioclimatic building; Centro de naturaleza y desarrollo sostenible de los Pirineas: Un edificio bioclimatico

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Serrosolses, J.; Vallve, X.

2004-07-01

This project has been promoted by the Territori i Paisatge Foundation i Caixa Catalunya. The architectonical project has been done by the architect Francesc Rius, with the collaboration of TTA in the bioclimatic design, installations and general infrastructure. This centre, placed 1.500 m. above the sea in the Lleida Pyrenees is an example of equipment intended to a training activity and rural tourism sustainable activity, and also to demonstrate the viability of using energetic sources within an efficient way. It is a building designed with bioclimatic criteria and energy saving. It is comprised by 3.000 m2 distributed in two plants. The building is semi buried, with a green roof and a north facade completely buried. The southern facade has 600 m2 glazed to gain passive solar lighting and a solar flat-plate collector integrated of 144 m2. It also has a boiler fed with biomass wastes and a photovoltaic system. (Author)

Urban bioclimatology in developing countries.

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Jauregui, E

1993-11-15

A brief review of the literature on urban human bioclimatology in the tropics is undertaken. Attempts to chart human bioclimatic conditions on the regional/local scale have been made in several developing countries. The effective temperature scheme (with all its limitations) is the one that has been most frequently applied. The possibilities of application of bioclimatic models based on human heat balance for the tropical urban environment are discussed.

A contribution to the concept and the classification of the bioclimatic unit in Sub-Saharan Africa

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J. F. V Phillips

1983-11-01

Full Text Available A bioclimatic unit is an integration of climatic factors (e.g. radiation, humidity complexes and features modified by physiography and vegetation (biotic communities and associated habitats, i.e. wherever possible, ecosystems. Unit implies an entity irrespective of ecological status and dimensions: these are otherwise differentiated. It often must suffice to use vegetation communities, because information regarding biotic communities or ecosystems is unavailable. Increasingly, disturbance of ‘natural’ conditions makes it imperative to involve man in the classification, demarcation and policy for the development of bioclimatic units. Ignorance regarding the nature and distribution of a climax necessitates using pro- (pre- or post- climaxes.This is based upon the differentiation in these criteria: climatic (radiation and humidity complexes; vegetation (physiognomy and ecological status . . . and as these are further modified by physiography and edaphic features (physiognomic differentiation ranges from specific faciations of forest or thicket; wooded savanna (facies ofwoodland, shrubland; facies or faciations of grassland; climatic differentiation ranges from highly humid toarid . . . and further to subdesert and desert. Recommendations respecting policy and practice in pastoral, crop production and forestry development based on this concept have been used in various sectors of Africa. South East Asia and Latin America. Detailed experience has been gained in Natal and elsewhere. Several maps illustrate the application of the concept.

[The comprehensive evaluation of the bioclimatic comfort at the territories of the Russian Far East with reference to winter-time recreational activities and primary wellness tourism].

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Pestereva, N M; Khechumyan, A F; Vorozbit, N

2018-05-21

in the framework of the current tendency toward the further development of the socio-economic sphere in the Russian Far East (RFE), the relevant investigations aimed at creating the comfortable conditions for recreational and touristic activities as well as for rehabilitative therapy of the local population acquire the increasingly greater importance. The objective of the present study was the comprehensive evaluation of the bioclimatic comfort at the territories of interest with special reference to winter-time recreational activities and primary wellness tourism. This study was designed to evaluate the health resort, recreational, and therapeutic resources of the selected areas of the Russian Far East with special reference to the data provided by the climate monitoring stations during the periods from December to March of 1965-2014. The following methods were used for the purpose: the comparative analysis of climatic information and elementary methods of mathematical statistics. The evaluation of the study territory in terms of the bioclimatic comfort gave evidence that the southern regions of Primorye as well as Sakhalin island, and Kamchatka peninsula provide the most favorable conditions for the therapeutic and recreational activities, leisure and sports in the winter seasons. The analysis of the studied bioclimatic indices of comfort at different territories of the Russian Far East has demonstrated their great potential for the further development of recreation services, rehabilitation, sporting and touristic activities. The study has revealed the new opportunities for the enhancement of bioclimatic comfort of the region and for the improvement of the quality of life and employment of the local population.

The future bioclimatic conditions in Austria under the aspect of climate change scenarios

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Rudel, E.; Matzarakis, A.; Neumke, R.; Endler, Ch,; Koch, E.

2009-09-01

The IPCC quantifies Heat Stress as a combination of air temperature and air humidity. In order to describe the future bioclimatic conditions in a human-biometeorological manner the analysis a modern thermal index has been chosen. The PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature) allows the assessment of the effect of the thermal environment based on the energy balance of humans including thermo-physiological information. The data for the calculation of the PET came from climate models. The required data are for the climatic parameters air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and mean cloud cover as the necessary inputs for Physiologically Equivalents Temperature. Regarding future climatic changes PET calculations for the time slices 1961 and 1990 and also 2070 and 2100 have been run in 0.5 ° resolution. By the use of statistical regression for the 0.5 ° resolution the results have been downscaled to 1 km resolution in order to identify and quantify the areas in Austria, which will be more affected bioclimatologically. The constructed maps present current and future climatic conditions and also differences for the different time slices and SRES-scenarios of the IPCC. Maps of the difference between the Physiological Equivalent temperature and air temperature have been constructed to show that the used thermal indices, which have been applied by the IPCC underestimate the expected thermal bioclimate conditions for future climate. The results offer fundamental information for tourism and recreation authorities for present and expected climatic and bioclimatic conditions.

Future scenarios for viticultural bioclimatic indices in Europe

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Santos, João.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Fraga, Helder; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2010-05-01

Winemaking has a predominant economic, social and environmental relevance in several European countries. Studies addressing the influence of climate variability and change in viticulture are particularly pertinent, as climate is one of the main conditioning factors of this activity. In this context, bioclimatic indices are a useful zoning tool, allowing the description of the suitability of a particular region for wine production. In this study, we compute climatic indices (concerning to thermal and hydrological conditions) for Europe, characterize regions with different viticultural aptitude, and assess possible variations in these regions under a future climate conditions using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (mostly daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation) obtained from the NCEP reanalysis dataset. Then, the same indices are calculated for present and future climate conditions using data from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small Scale Modelling - Climate Limited-area Modelling). Maps of theses indices for recent-past periods (1961-2008) and for the SRES A1B scenario are considered in order to identify significant changes in their patterns. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant negative impact in wine quality by increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during growing seasons in Southern European regions (e.g. Portugal, Spain and Italy). These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making crucial adaptation/mitigation strategies to be adopted. On the other hand, regions of western and central Europe (e.g. southern Britain, northern France and Germany) will benefit from this scenario both in wine quality, and in new potential areas for viticulture. This approach provides a macro-characterization of European areas where grapevines may preferentially grow, as well as their projected changes

Bird distributional patterns support biogeographical histories and are associated with bioclimatic units in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil.

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Carvalho, Cristiano DE Santana; Nascimento, Nayla Fábia Ferreira DO; Araujo, Helder F P DE

2017-10-17

Rivers as barriers to dispersal and past forest refugia are two of the hypotheses proposed to explain the patterns of biodiversity in the Atlantic Forest. It has recently been shown that possible past refugia correspond to bioclimatically different regions, so we tested whether patterns of shared distribution of bird taxa in the Atlantic Forest are 1) limited by the Doce and São Francisco rivers or 2) associated with the bioclimatically different southern and northeastern regions. We catalogued lists of forest birds from 45 locations, 36 in the Atlantic forest and nine in Amazon, and used parsimony analysis of endemicity to identify groups of shared taxa. We also compared differences between these groups by permutational multivariate analysis of variance and identified the species that best supported the resulting groups. The results showed that the distribution of forest birds is divided into two main regions in the Atlantic Forest, the first with more southern localities and the second with northeastern localities. This distributional pattern is not delimited by riverbanks, but it may be associated with bioclimatic units, surrogated by altitude, that maintain current environmental differences between two main regions on Atlantic Forest and may be related to phylogenetic histories of taxa supporting the two groups.

La ordenanza bioclimática de Tres Cantos, Madrid. Últimos avances en planificación ambiental y sostenible./ The ordinance bioclimatic Tres Cantos, Madrid. Recent developments in environmental planning and sustainable.

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Higueras García, Ester

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Aunque es de todos reconocida la importancia de planificar con criterios ambientales, son muy pocos los casos en los que estos criterios pasan de los objetivos a las propuestas. En el caso de la localidad de Tres Cantos (Madrid se ha obtenido un importante reto: la aprobación de una ordenanza, denominada Ordenanza Bioclimática, que impulsa el desarrollo urbano equilibrado con su territorio, reduce los consumos de suelo y agua, es respetuosa con el paisaje e incentiva la edificación bioclimática frente a otras convencionales./Despite the well-known relevancy of environmental criteria relating to urban planning, they often remain as objectives and do not become proposals. In the case of Tres Cantos, an important challenge has been proposed: the approval of an ordinance, called Bioclimatic Ordinance, that promotes a proportional urban development relating to the territory, that reduces the use of ground and water, that is respectful towards the landscape and encourages bioclimatic construction against the traditional one.

Bioclimatic Extremes Drive Forest Mortality in Southwest, Western Australia

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Bradley John Evans

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Extreme and persistent reductions in annual precipitation and an increase in the mean diurnal temperature range have resulted in patch scale forest mortality following the summer of 2010–2011 within the Forest study area near Perth, Western Australia. The impacts of 20 bioclimatic indicators derived from temperature, precipitation and of actual and potential evapotranspiration are quantified. We found that spatially aggregated seasonal climatologies across the study area show 2011 with an annual mean of 17.7 °C (± 5.3 °C was 1.1 °C warmer than the mean over recent decades (1981–2011,- 16.6 °C ± 4.6 °C and the mean has been increasing over the last decade. Compared to the same period, 2010–2011 summer maximum temperatures were 1.4 °C (31.6 °C ± 2.0 °C higher and the annual mean diurnal temperature range (Tmax−Tmin was 1.6 °C higher (14.7 °C ± 0.5 °C. In 2009, the year before the forest mortality began, annual precipitation across the study area was 69% less (301 mm ± 38 mm than the mean of 1981–2010 (907 mm ± 69 mm. Using Système Pour l'Observation de la Terre mission 5 (SPOT-5 satellite imagery captured after the summer of 2010–2011 we map a broad scale forest mortality event across the Forested study area. This satellite-climatology based methodology provides a means of monitoring and mapping similar forest mortality events- a critical contribution to our understanding the dynamical bioclimatic drivers of forest mortality events.

Optimising for sun and light - the environmental performance of bio-climatic high-rise offices by Malaysian architect Kenneth Yeang

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Ip, K.; Puteri Shireen Jahnkassim [University of Brighton (United Kingdom). School of the Environment

2000-07-01

Bioclimatic highrises represent an architectural response to the problem of regionalism in highrises and are based mainly on climate as a form determinant. They integrate sky courts, the use of vertical landscaping and vegetation, sun shading and use of natural ventilation in transitional areas such as the lift and ground floor lobbies. Sensitivity studies on bioclimatic highrises in tropical climate have shown that the use of daylight to save electric light and the optimum design of the building envelope can achieve significant energy savings by maintaining the balance between thermal and lighting requirements. In this study the overall envelope of two of Ken Yeang's highrise design, Menara Mesiniaga and Menara UMNO, are optimised with regards to the balance between the opposing impacts - daylight and solar gain. Apart from the external design features, the applications of photovoltaic systems to enhance the energy efficiency of these buildings are also investigated. The optimisation is carried out through the use of the FACET computer program that incorporates the use of dynamic thermal simulation program APACHE and lighting simulation RADIANCE. The paper concludes with the energy saving potential of bioclimatic design and limitations of the current study. (author)

Cost-benefit of energy saving in bioclimatic designs; Costo-beneficio del ahorro de energia en los disenos bioclimatios

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Lopez P, J. Manuel A. [Doble dos soluciones de Negocios (Mexico); Morillon G, David; Rdriguez V, Luis [Universidad Autonoma de Mexico (Mexico)

2001-06-01

Tools and criteria for Cost-Benefit Analysis (ACB) of energy saving in bioclimatic designs (DB) are presented, for which a reference project is established. Based on the traditional design of air conditioning of a building and with the support of this one, the estimation of costs and benefits of the same building is made; but with passive systems. The tools used consider related resources such as time and money. Criteria are used such as: Present value (VP), Equivalent Annual Cost (EAC) and the Cost of the conserved Energy (CEC). The costs related to the construction, maintenance and operation of the design are taken into consideration. The differences between the design of reference and the Bioclimatic Design, established from the application of these criteria, allow evaluating the economic margin as far as operation and maintenance. Finally, the cost of the conserved energy of the bioclimatic measures is evaluated as an initiative for energy saving and calculates the present value from them in all of the period of useful life of the bioclimatic design. [Spanish] Se presentan herramientas y criterios para el analisis Costo-Beneficio (ACB) del ahorro de energia en los disenos bioclimaticos (DB), para lo cual se establece un proyecto de referencia. Basado en el diseno tradicional de la climatizacion de un edificio y con apoyo en este, se realiza la estimacion de costos y beneficios del mismo edificio; pero con sistema pasivos. Las herramientas usadas consideran recursos relacionados como son tiempo y dinero. Se usan criterios tales como: Valor Presente (VP), Costo Anual Equivalente (CAE) y el Costo de la Energia conservada (CEC). Se toman en consideracion los costos relacionados con la construccion, mantenimiento y operacion del diseno. Las diferencias entre el diseno de referencia y el Diseno Bioclimatico, establecidas a partir de la aplicacion de estos criterios, permiten evaluar el margen economico en cuanto a la operacion y el mantenimiento. Finalmente, se

Bioclimatic comfort and the thermal perceptions and preferences of beach tourists

Science.gov (United States)

Rutty, Michelle; Scott, Daniel

2015-01-01

The largest market segment of global tourism is coastal tourism, which is strongly dependent on the destination's thermal climate. To date, outdoor bioclimatic comfort assessments have focused exclusively on local residents in open urban areas, making it unclear whether outdoor comfort is perceived differently in non-urban environments or by non-residents (i.e. tourists) with different weather expectations and activity patterns. This study provides needed insight into the perception of outdoor microclimatic conditions in a coastal environment while simultaneously identifying important psychological factors that differentiate tourists from everyday users of urban spaces. Concurrent micrometeorological measurements were taken on several Caribbean beaches in the islands of Barbados, Saint Lucia and Tobago, while a questionnaire survey was used to examine the thermal comfort of subjects ( n = 472). Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) conditions of 32 to 39 °C were recorded, which were perceived as being "slightly warm" or "warm" by respondents. Most beach users (48 to 77 %) would not change the thermal conditions, with some (4 to 15 %) preferring even warmer conditions. Even at UTCI of 39 °C, 62 % of respondents voted for no change to current thermal conditions, with an additional 10 % stating that they would like to feel even warmer. These results indicate that beach users' thermal preferences are up to 18 °C warmer than the preferred thermal conditions identified in existing outdoor bioclimatic studies from urban park settings. This indicates that beach users hold fundamentally different comfort perceptions and preferences compared to people using urban spaces. Statistically significant differences ( p ≤ .05) were also recorded for demographic groups (gender, age) and place of origin (climatic region).

Analyse de l’interaction entre l’éclosion des feux de forêts et les types de bioclimat au Nord du Maroc – cas de la région du Rif occidental -

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Hicham MHARZI ALAOUI

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Morocco, as a country with arid and semi-arid climate is vulnerable to climate change and presents many challenges for the future of the forest resources, mainly their vulnerability to forest fires. In addition, Moroccan forests are extremely flammable, especially in summer when the water content of plants, soil and the air become very low. This is especially noticeable in the Rif region (North of Morocco where almost 65% of the phenomenon of wildfires across the country are concentrated. To deal with this new situation, the development of a prevention plan against forest fires requires an appropriate analysis of forest fire phenomenon and its response to the climate and vegetation changes. The present study has the goal to establish a spatio-temporal analysis of fires based on bioclimatic types because of the inclusive relationship between vegetation and climate. The fires that occurred in the rif region between 1997-2011 were analyzed and classified according to the affected area during the fire episode. The analysis has shown that almost 80% of the burnt area during the year were recorded only during August and September. Thereafter, using a two-factor ANOVA showed a significant difference of the fires spatial distribution according to the bioclimatic types, mainly for the warm variant of bioclimatic type where the development of the biomass is very important.

Topographic and Bioclimatic Determinants of the Occurrence of Forest and Grassland in Tropical Montane Forest-Grassland Mosaics of the Western Ghats, India.

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Arundhati Das

Full Text Available The objective of this analysis was to identify topographic and bioclimatic factors that predict occurrence of forest and grassland patches within tropical montane forest-grassland mosaics. We further investigated whether interactions between topography and bioclimate are important in determining vegetation pattern, and assessed the role of spatial scale in determining the relative importance of specific topographic features. Finally, we assessed the role of elevation in determining the relative importance of diverse explanatory factors. The study area consists of the central and southern regions of the Western Ghats of Southern India, a global biodiversity hotspot. Random forests were used to assess prediction accuracy and predictor importance. Conditional inference classification trees were used to interpret predictor effects and examine potential interactions between predictors. GLMs were used to confirm predictor importance and assess the strength of interaction terms. Overall, topographic and bioclimatic predictors classified vegetation pattern with approximately 70% accuracy. Prediction accuracy was higher for grassland than forest, and for mosaics at higher elevations. Elevation was the most important predictor, with mosaics above 2000 m dominated largely by grassland. Relative topographic position measured at a local scale (within a 300 m neighbourhood was another important predictor of vegetation pattern. In high elevation mosaics, northness and concave land surface curvature were important predictors of forest occurrence. Important bioclimatic predictors were: dry quarter precipitation, annual temperature range and the interaction between the two. The results indicate complex interactions between topography and bioclimate and among topographic variables. Elevation and topography have a strong influence on vegetation pattern in these mosaics. There were marked regional differences in the roles of various topographic and bioclimatic

Topographic and Bioclimatic Determinants of the Occurrence of Forest and Grassland in Tropical Montane Forest-Grassland Mosaics of the Western Ghats, India.

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Arundhati; Nagendra, Harini; Anand, Madhur; Bunyan, Milind

2015-01-01

The objective of this analysis was to identify topographic and bioclimatic factors that predict occurrence of forest and grassland patches within tropical montane forest-grassland mosaics. We further investigated whether interactions between topography and bioclimate are important in determining vegetation pattern, and assessed the role of spatial scale in determining the relative importance of specific topographic features. Finally, we assessed the role of elevation in determining the relative importance of diverse explanatory factors. The study area consists of the central and southern regions of the Western Ghats of Southern India, a global biodiversity hotspot. Random forests were used to assess prediction accuracy and predictor importance. Conditional inference classification trees were used to interpret predictor effects and examine potential interactions between predictors. GLMs were used to confirm predictor importance and assess the strength of interaction terms. Overall, topographic and bioclimatic predictors classified vegetation pattern with approximately 70% accuracy. Prediction accuracy was higher for grassland than forest, and for mosaics at higher elevations. Elevation was the most important predictor, with mosaics above 2000 m dominated largely by grassland. Relative topographic position measured at a local scale (within a 300 m neighbourhood) was another important predictor of vegetation pattern. In high elevation mosaics, northness and concave land surface curvature were important predictors of forest occurrence. Important bioclimatic predictors were: dry quarter precipitation, annual temperature range and the interaction between the two. The results indicate complex interactions between topography and bioclimate and among topographic variables. Elevation and topography have a strong influence on vegetation pattern in these mosaics. There were marked regional differences in the roles of various topographic and bioclimatic predictors across the

Determining bioclimatic space of Himalayan alder for agroforestry systems in Nepal

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Santosh Kumar Rana

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Himalayan alder species are proven to be very useful in traditional as well as contemporary agroforestry practice. These nitrogen-fixing trees are also useful in the land restoration. Therefore, understanding the distribution of Himalayan alder and the potential zone for plantation is meaningful in the agroforestry sector. Suitable climatic zones of Alnus spp. were modelled in MaxEnt software using a subset of least correlated bioclimatic variables for current conditions (1950–2000, topographic variables (DEM derived and Landuse Landcover (LULC data. We generated several models and selected the best model against random models using ANOVA and t-test. The environmental variables that best explained the current distribution of the species were identified and used to project into the future. For future projections, ensemble scenarios of climate change projection derived from the results of 19 Earth System Models (ESM were used. Our model revealed that the most favorable conditions for Alnus nepalensis are in central Nepal in the moist north-west facing slope, whereas for Alnus nitida they are in western Nepal. The major climatic factor that contributes to Alnus species distribution in Nepal appears to be precipitation during the warmest quarter for A. nepalensis and precipitation during the driest quarter for A. nitida. Future projections revealed changes in the probability distribution of these species, as well as where they need conservation and where they can be planted. Also, our model predicts that the distribution of Alnus spp. in hilly regions will remain unchanged, and therefore may represent sites that can be used to revitalize traditional agroforestry systems and extract source material for land restoration.

Genetic structure and bio-climatic modeling support allopatric over parapatric speciation along a latitudinal gradient.

Science.gov (United States)

Rossetto, Maurizio; Allen, Chris B; Thurlby, Katie A G; Weston, Peter H; Milner, Melita L

2012-08-20

corresponding to the four recognised species with the additional division of T. speciosissima into populations north and south of the Shoalhaven River valley. Unexpectedly, the northern disjunct population of T. oreades grouped with T. mongaensis and was identified as a hybrid swarm by the Bayesian assignment test implemented in NewHybrids. Present day and LGM environmental niche models differed dramatically, suggesting that distributions of all species had repeatedly expanded and contracted in response to Pleistocene climatic oscillations and confirming strongly marked historical distributional gaps among taxes. Genetic structure and bio-climatic modeling results are more consistent with a history of allopatric speciation followed by repeated episodes of secondary contact and localised hybridisation, rather than with parapatric speciation. This study on Telopea shows that the evidence for temporal exclusion of gene flow can be found even outside obvious geographical contexts, and that it is possible to make significant progress towards excluding parapatric speciation as a contributing evolutionary process.

A contribution to the concept and the classification of the bioclimatic unit in Sub-Saharan Africa

OpenAIRE

J. F. V Phillips

1983-01-01

A bioclimatic unit is an integration of climatic factors (e.g. radiation, humidity complexes) and features modified by physiography and vegetation (biotic communities and associated habitats, i.e. wherever possible, ecosystems). Unit implies an entity irrespective of ecological status and dimensions: these are otherwise differentiated. It often must suffice to use vegetation communities, because information regarding biotic communities or ecosystems is unavailable. Inc...

Guide for a building energy label. Promoting bio-climatic and solar construction and renovation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-07-01

Technically speaking, building experts have the knowledge to deal with thermal inertia of buildings, solar gains, insulation, efficient ventilation, and daylighting... to get low energy buildings that provide comfort for the users. Buildings should always be designed according to the specificities of the local climate, according to a ''solar and bio-climatic construction'' approach. It is not always possible to fully apply these principles, particularly in urban areas with high density. However, this is unacceptable to keep building with such errors as insufficient insulation and direct electrical heating, single glazing, thermal bridges, low efficiency heating systems. This guide aims at encouraging the building experts to take into account the energy efficiency. Implementing a building energy label will allow general public to be aware of this issue and then, and will then lead to develop better practices. (author)

Use of Bioclimatic Factors to Determine Potential Niche of Vaccinia Virus, an Emerging and Zoonotic Pathogen

Science.gov (United States)

Quiner, C. A.; Nakazawa, Y.

2017-12-01

Emerging and understudied pathogens often lack information that most commonly used analytical tools require, such as negative controls or baseline data making public health control of emerging pathogens challenging. In lieu of opportunities to collect more data from larger outbreaks or formal epidemiological studies, new analytical strategies, merging case data with publically available datasets, can be used to understand transmission patterns and drivers of disease emergence. Zoonotic infections with Vaccinia virus (VACV) were first reported in Brazil in 1999, VACV is an emerging zoonotic Orthopoxvirus, which primarily infects dairy cattle and farmers in close contact with infected cows. Prospective studies of emerging pathogens could provide critical data that would inform public health planning and response to outbreaks. By using the location of 87-recorded outbreaks and publicly available bioclimatic data we demonstrate one such approach. Using an Ecological Niche Model (ENM), we identify the environmental conditions under which VACV outbreaks have occurred, and determine additional locations in two affected South American countries that may be susceptible to transmission. Further, we show how suitability for the virus responds to different levels of various environmental factors and highlight the most important climatic factors in determining its transmission. The final ENM predicted all areas where Brazilian outbreaks occurred, two out of five Colombian outbreaks and identified new regions within Brazil that are suitable for transmission based on bioclimatic factors. Further, the most important factors in determining transmission suitability are precipitation of the wettest quarter, annual precipitation, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and mean diurnal range. The analyses here provide a means by which to study patterns of an emerging infectious disease, and regions that are potentially at risk for it, in spite of the paucity of critical data. Policy

Bioclimatic comfort and the thermal perceptions and preferences of beach tourists.

Science.gov (United States)

Rutty, Michelle; Scott, Daniel

2015-01-01

The largest market segment of global tourism is coastal tourism, which is strongly dependent on the destination's thermal climate. To date, outdoor bioclimatic comfort assessments have focused exclusively on local residents in open urban areas, making it unclear whether outdoor comfort is perceived differently in non-urban environments or by non-residents (i.e. tourists) with different weather expectations and activity patterns. This study provides needed insight into the perception of outdoor microclimatic conditions in a coastal environment while simultaneously identifying important psychological factors that differentiate tourists from everyday users of urban spaces. Concurrent micrometeorological measurements were taken on several Caribbean beaches in the islands of Barbados, Saint Lucia and Tobago, while a questionnaire survey was used to examine the thermal comfort of subjects (n = 472). Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) conditions of 32 to 39 °C were recorded, which were perceived as being "slightly warm" or "warm" by respondents. Most beach users (48 to 77 %) would not change the thermal conditions, with some (4 to 15 %) preferring even warmer conditions. Even at UTCI of 39 °C, 62 % of respondents voted for no change to current thermal conditions, with an additional 10 % stating that they would like to feel even warmer. These results indicate that beach users' thermal preferences are up to 18 °C warmer than the preferred thermal conditions identified in existing outdoor bioclimatic studies from urban park settings. This indicates that beach users hold fundamentally different comfort perceptions and preferences compared to people using urban spaces. Statistically significant differences (p ≤ .05) were also recorded for demographic groups (gender, age) and place of origin (climatic region).

Assessment of bioclimatic conditions within the area of Szczecin agglomeration

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Jadwiga Nidzgorska-Lencewicz

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to characterise the bioclimatic conditions in the city of Szczecin, particularly the recognition of the frequency of occurrence of the conditions unfavourable to humans. The analysis is based on the hourly values of particular meteorological elements and pollutant concentrations in the period 2005?2010 taken at the three measuring stations located in various settlement structures in Szczecin metropolitan area. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI was used to assess heat stress of human organism and the assessment of thermal sensation was based on the Effective Temperature index (ET. It was established that on a yearly basis the most favourable biothermal conditions are observed in the centre of the city and in its southern districts ? categories no thermal stress (UTCI and thermal comfort (ET are most frequently recorded there. However, in the northern parts of the city the most common class of thermal stress (UTCI is moderate cold stress and thermal sensation category (ET cool and cold. Among the situations which thermal stress, the conditions connected with discomfort related to cold rather than heat are more frequent. Throughout the year, the strong cold stress (UTCI < 13 ° C and sensations (ET related to cold stress occurred in 12.5% and 25% of time respectively, whereas thermal discomfort related to strong heat stress with UTCI values over 32 ° C and ET thermal sensations hot and very hot were observed incomparably less frequently ? 0.3% and 3.7% respectively. However, heat-related discomfort is more frequently observed in the city centre, and cold-related discomfort is most frequently experienced by residents of the outskirts of the city, particularly its northern parts. The statistically strongest relationships were observed between biothermal sensation and ozone (O3 and particulate matter PM2.5 immissions. During the analysed period, the most unfavourable bioclimatic conditions occurred predominantly in

Regional analysis of ground and above-ground climate. Part I. Regional suitability of earth-tempering practices: summary and conclusions. Part II. Bioclimatic data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Labs, K.

The regional suitability of underground construction as a climate-control technique is discussed with reference to (1) a bioclimatic analysis of long-term weather data for 29 locations in the United States to determine appropriate above-ground climate-control techniques, (2) a data base of synthesized ground temperatures for the coterminous United States, and (3) monthly dewpoint ground temperature comparisons for identifying the relative likelihood of condensation, from one region to another. It is concluded that the suitability of earth tempering as a practice and of specific earth-sheltered design stereotypes varies geographically. While the subsurface almost always provides a thermal advantage on its own terms when compared to above-ground climatic data, it can, nonetheless, compromise the effectiveness of other, regionally more important climate-control techniques. Also contained in the report are reviews of above- and below-ground climate mapping schemes related to human comfort and architectural design, and a detailed description of a theoretical model of ground temperature, heat flow, and heat storage in the ground. Strategies of passive climate control are presented in a discussion of the building bioclimatic analysis procedure which has been applied in a computer analysis of 30 years of weather data for each of 29 locations in the United States. 3 references, 12 figures, 14 tables.

Genetic structure and bio-climatic modeling support allopatric over parapatric speciation along a latitudinal gradient

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rossetto Maurizio

2012-08-01

an optimum number of five clusters corresponding to the four recognised species with the additional division of T. speciosissima into populations north and south of the Shoalhaven River valley. Unexpectedly, the northern disjunct population of T. oreades grouped with T. mongaensis and was identified as a hybrid swarm by the Bayesian assignment test implemented in NewHybrids. Present day and LGM environmental niche models differed dramatically, suggesting that distributions of all species had repeatedly expanded and contracted in response to Pleistocene climatic oscillations and confirming strongly marked historical distributional gaps among taxes. Conclusions Genetic structure and bio-climatic modeling results are more consistent with a history of allopatric speciation followed by repeated episodes of secondary contact and localised hybridisation, rather than with parapatric speciation. This study on Telopea shows that the evidence for temporal exclusion of gene flow can be found even outside obvious geographical contexts, and that it is possible to make significant progress towards excluding parapatric speciation as a contributing evolutionary process.

Analysis of chosen urban bioclimatic conditions in Upper Silesian Industrial Region, Poland

Science.gov (United States)

Zimnol, Jan

2013-04-01

Due to the increasing urbanization, people spend more and more time in cities. Because of that fact during the last century the human bioclimatological approach had an important influence on the applied urban bioclimatology. The aim of the study was to analyze chosen thermal bioclimatic conditions in urban area of Upper Silesian Industrial Region in connection with the atmospheric circulation and air masses. The study was focused on the thermal conditions that are important for the bioclimatological research on human thermal comfort. They were the basis for making study on how to show the influence of the air masses and circulations types on frequency and variability of the chosen bioclimate indexes. That research was based on data (2004 - 2008) acquired by the Silesian University (Faculty of Earth Sciences) meteorological station located in the city of Sosnowiec (50°17'N, 19°08'E, h=263 m a.s.l.). The temperature measurements were made automatically every 10 minutes on the 2 meters above the ground level. Previous research showed that the station is a good representation of the local urban climate conditions in Upper Silesian Industrial Region. In the study the following air temperatures were taken into consideration: average day temperature, maximum day temperature, minimum day temperature and the average air temperature at 12 UTC. They were associated with atmospheric circulation types and masses typical for the region. Using the data mentioned above I conducted a classification to divide days into following objective categories: cool, cold, comfortable, hot, warm and very hot in the seasonal depiction. The final stage of the work was to find the answer to the following question: "When and how do the strong air masses and air circulations types modify bioclimatic conditions in the study area?" Answer to that question together with further results of the research will be presented on my poster.

Building a sustainable future: Bioclimatic house

Science.gov (United States)

Gomez Mallen, Esther; Rivera Fusalba, Oriol

2010-05-01

The application of bioclimatic principles is a critical factor in reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions. This poster develops a sequence of experiments and building working models in order to form students of secondary school and make progress towards real applications of new energy technologies. The activity has been carried out by 14 and 15-year-old students using a Power House building kit. Scientific method and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) were used as an effective system of acquiring new knowledge. Students were asked to form cooperative groups. Firstly, each group had to choose the best location and orientation in the imaginary Dragon Island for the construction of the house. The house consisted of eight Styrofoam parts and one transparent plastic part. The Styrofoam parts formed the house structure (floor, walls and roof) with two interior chambers and the attached greenhouse. Once the house was assembled in a few steps, it was ready for the students to start adding more components. Students then conducted several experiments related to the heat and light energy of the Sun and the energy of the wind. Some of the experiments and building projects realized were: how to capture the Sun to heat the house by passive solar heating, how to collect the Sun's rays to heat water using a Sun Collector and how to extract electricity current from Sun Power station and from wind power plant. For most of the assays it was necessary to record the temperature and students used for that purpose a temperature sensor that comes with Multilog Pro, a portable, graphic data collection and analysis system. Groups of students were really engaged in the project and each of them ran a different test with the house. Finally they proved if their initial hypothesis was correct and they had to expose the results to the rest of the class members. Students demonstrated how we can transform and use renewable forms of energy. With the experiments students

Thermal Band Analysis of Agricultural Land Use and its Effects on Bioclimatic Comfort: The Case of Pasinler

Science.gov (United States)

Avdan, Uǧur; Demircioglu Yildiz, Nalan; Dagliyar, Ayse; Yigit Avdan, Zehra; Yilmaz, Sevgi

2014-05-01

Resolving the problems that arise due to the land use are not suitable for the purpose in the rural and urban areas most suitable for land use of parameters to be determined. Unintended and unplanned developments in the use of agricultural land in our country caused increases the losses by soil erosion. In this study, Thermal Band analysis is made in Pasinler city center with the aim of identifying bioclimatic comfort values of the different agricultural area. Satellite images can be applied for assessing the thermal urban environment as well as for defining heat islands in agricultural areas. In this context, temperature map is tried to be produced with land surface temperature (LST) analysis made on Landsat TM5 satellite image. The Landsat 5 images was obtained from USGS for the study area. Using Landsat bands of the study area was mapped by supervised classification with the maximum likelihood classification algorithm of ERDAS imagine 2011 software. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) image was produced by using Landsat images. The digital number of the Landsat thermal infrared band (10.40 - 12.50 µm) is converted to the spectral radiance. The surface emissivity was calculated by using NDVI. The spatial pattern of land surface temperature in the study area is taken to characterize their local effects on agricultural land. Areas having bioclimatic comfort and ecologically urbanized, are interpreted with different graphical presentation technics. The obtained results are important because they create data bases for sustainable urban planning and provide a direction for planners and governors. As a result of rapid changes in land use, rural ecosystems and quality of life are deteriorated and decreased. In the presence of increased building density, for the comfortable living of people natural and cultural resources should be analyzed in detail. For that reason, optimal land use planning should be made in rural area.

A comparative simple method for human bioclimatic conditions applied to seasonally hot/warm cities of Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tejeda Martinez, A. [Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico); Garcia Cueto, O.R. [Universidad Autonoma de Baja California, Mexicali, B.C. (Mexico)

2002-01-01

The climate of a region is an environmental resource with important implications for things such as thermal comfort, health and productivity of the population. In this work, the bioclimatic comfort was evaluated for seven seasonally warm/hot cities of Mexico by means of the following current indexes: Discomfort Index, Enthalpy Index and Heat Strain Index. Also, the periods during which it is necessary to use air conditioning in the studied cities were calculated from estimated global radiation and hourly data of temperature and relative humidity which made it possible to establish them with high precision. Finally, the useful of the Heat Strain Index is shown. It is a simple index needing available meteorological data to compare bioclimatic conditions of similar sites. [Spanish] El clima regional tiene implicaciones en el confort, la salud y la productividad de la poblacion. En este articulo se presentan las evaluaciones bioclimaticas comparativas de siete ciudades calidas de Mexico. Se aplicaron los indices bioclimaticos de disconfort, entalpia y esfuerzo frente al calor. Se calcularon los periodos para los cuales es necesario el uso de aire acondicionado, a partir de estimaciones de radiacion solar global y de temperatura y humedad horarias medias mensuales. Finalmente se muestra la utilidad y calidad del Indice de esfuerzo frente al calor, el cual requiere solo de datos climatologicos comunes para poder comparar condiciones bioclimaticas de sitios similares.

Methodology for bioclimatic design; Metodologia para el diseno bioclimatico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morillon Galvez, David [Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

2000-07-01

A methodology for natural air conditioning of buildings is presented; bioclimatic architecture, in order to contribute to the suitable use of components of the building (walls, ceilings, floors, orientations, etc.) that when interacting with the environment takes advantage of it, without deterioration of the same, obtaining energy efficient designs. As well as an analysis of the elements and factors that the architecture must have to be sustainable; an adequate design to the environment, saving and efficient use of energy, the use of alternating energies by means of ecotechnologies and the self-sufficiency. [Spanish] Se presenta una metodologia para la climatizacion natural de edificios; arquitectura bioclimatica, con el objetivo de aportar al uso adecuado de componentes del edificio (muros, techos, pisos, orientaciones, etc.) que al interactuar con el ambiente tome ventaja de el, sin deterioro del mismo, logrando disenos energeticamente eficientes. Asi como un analisis de los elementos y factores que debe tener la arquitectura para ser sustentable; un diseno adecuado al ambiente, ahorro y uso eficiente de la energia, el uso de energias alternas mediante ecotecnologias y la autosuficiencia.

Simply architecture or bioclimatic architecture?; Arquitectura bioclimatica o simplemente Arquitectura?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rodriguez Torres, Juan Manuel [Universidad de Guanajuato (Mexico)

2006-10-15

The bioclimatic architecture is the one which profits from its position in the environment and its architectonic elements for the climate benefit. With the aim of reach the internal thermal comfort without using mechanical systems. This article states the story about this singular kind of architecture during centuries. And also emphasizes the sunlight utilization, in order to achieve the desired thermal well-being in edifications. [Spanish] El tipo de arquitectura que toma ventaja de su disposicion en el entorno y sus elementos arquitectonicos para el aprovechamiento del clima, con el fin de conseguir el confort termico interior sin utilizar sistemas mecanicos, se denomina bioclimatica. En este articulo se habla de la historia de este tipo tan singular de arquitectura con el paso de los siglos, y tambien se hace hincapie acerca de la luz solar, como un medio muy eficiente a traves del cual las edificaciones pueden ser disenadas para lograr el bienestar termico deseado.

SPATIAL AND SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION OF BIOCLIMATIC INDICES IN THE STATE OF STYRIA AS A BASIS FOR HOLIDAY PLANNING

OpenAIRE

Harlfinger, Otmar; Pilger, Harald; Rieder, Hannes; Köck, Michael; P. Pichler-Semmelrock, Franz

2004-01-01

Abstract: In the period between 1991. and 2000., bioclimatic data were collected from 34 meteorological stations in the Austrian State of Styria. The equivalent temperature served as an indicator for the thermal action complex; during the winter months, wind-chill temperatures were used (thermal action complex). Finally, the geographic and seasonal distribution of weatherbiotropic intensity was studied (neurotropic action complex). The mean values and frequency distributions of the equival...

Bioclimatic analysis and its impact within the design methodology; Analisis bioclimatico y su impacto dentro de la metodologia de diseno

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fuentes Fleixanet, Victor A; Rodriguez Viqueira Manuel [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana Azcapotzalco, Mexico, D.F(Mexico)

2000-07-01

This paper is a proposal for the systematization of the process of bioclimatic design, particularly in its analytical stage. It is based on the proposals of the classic researchers such as: Olgyay, Givoni and Szokolay, but also in new contributions like those of Yeang. Nevertheless, it is about a methodology adapted to the specific requirements of teaching and research that are carried out in the Bioclimatic Design Laboratory of the Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana, Azcapotzalco Unit. What is presented here is a part of a very ample research project that intends to develop or to structure a design methodology that incorporates the environmental variables related to man and architecture: of course, with the objective of facilitating the designer work so that the final architectonic product has a more harmonic response to the environment, offers conditions of integral well- being to its occupants and be is efficient in the handling of the resources. It also looks for the definition of the necessary analysis, design and evaluation tools, necessary in order that the application of the methodology is clear, simple and can be carried out by any designer, even if he does not have a wide knowledge of bioclimatic design. [Spanish] Este trabajo es una propuesta para la sistematizacion del proceso de diseno bioclimatico, particularmente en su etapa analitica. Se basa en las propuestas de los investigadores clasicos como: Olgyay, Givoni y Szokolay, pero tambien en nuevas aportaciones como las de Yeang. Sin embargo se trata de una metodologia adaptada a los requerimientos especificos de docencia e investigacion que se llevan a cabo en el Laboratorio de Diseno Bioclimatico de la Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana Unidad Azcapotzalco. Lo que aqui se presenta forma parte de un proyecto de investigacion muy amplio que pretende, desarrollar o estructurar una metodologia de diseno que incorpore las variables ambientales relacionadas con el hombre y la arquitectura: desde luego, con

Bioclimatic building in Hungary: results of the Pecs house

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fueloep, L.; Szasz, J. (Pollack Mihaly Coll. of Technology, Pecs (HU))

1990-09-01

The house was designed on a split-level to fit into a slope, with close attention paid to the reduction of heat losses, the increasing of passive gains and the maintenance of bioclimatic comfort. The building's rounded contours reduce turbulence and edge effects. A totally glazed south side incorporates two thermosyphon mass walls as well as a two-storey high sunspace. This unheated intermediate space acts as a buffer between indoors and outdoors and maximises solar gain, which can however be controlled by internal shading. A fan assisted central gravel packed tower and a rock bed floor provide heat storage. There are two 18 m{sup 2} areas of thermosyphon walls, where glass on polycarbonate is used to cover 0.45 m of dark stone mass. In 1989 the glazed wall was retrofitted to incorporate honeycomb transparent insulation, which still allows radiation gain but minimizes heat loss. Transparent insulation is also used in a skylight which is important for lighting the hallway but which would otherwise contribute to heat loss. Natural and forced ventilation as well as a cool air-pond contributes to cooling. Auxiliary floor heating is supplied by gas. In one room underfloor PCM batteries charged by discount night electricity are used for heating. A fireplace is also provided. (author).

Selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forest trees based on structural modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Ay, J. S.; Guillemot, J.; Doyen, L.; Leadley, P.

2014-12-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global changes on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of applications on forest trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8km). We also compared the outputs of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM (i.e. Biomod ensemble modelling) in terms of bioclimatic response curves and potential distributions under current climate and climate change scenarios. The shapes of the bioclimatic response curves and the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between SSDM and classical SDMs, with contrasted patterns according to species and spatial resolutions. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents

Performance evaluation of the BSRC multi-purpose bio-climatic roof

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waewsak, J.; Hirunlabh, J.; Khedari, J. [Mongkut' s University of Technology, Bangkok (Thailand). Building Scientific Research Center; Shin, U.C. [Taejon University (Korea). College of Engineering

2003-11-01

This paper reports on experimental investigation of the performance of a new multi-purpose bio-climatic roof (BCR) developed by our teamwork (The Building Scientific Research Center, BSRC). The innovative functions of this BSRC-BCR are to decrease daily heat gain through the roof fabrics, to induce significant air ventilation rate, which improves the thermal comfort of residents, to ensure appropriate daylighting without any overheating and to act as a roof radiator during nighttime. The BSRC-BCR is composed of a combination of CPAC Monier concrete and transparent acrylic tiles on the outer side, air gap and another combination of gypsum with an aluminum foil board and translucent sheets on the room side. The thermal and visual performances of BCR were investigated experimentally and compared to the conventional roof solar collector (RSC) based on the following three important parameters: the temperature difference index (TD) defined as the temperature difference between the outdoor and indoor, the air change number (ACH) induced by the BSRC-BCR and the amount of indoor illumination. To this end, two units (BCR and RSC) each of 1 x l.5 m{sup 2} surface area were integrated into the south-facing roof of the center single-room solar house of 25 m{sup 3} volume. The experimental results show that the BSRC-BCR is extremely interesting as it can reduce roof heat gain significantly, provide sufficient natural lighting for housing and induce high air change that improve indoor thermal comfort. The TD index of BCR was always lower or close to neutral than that of RSC during the hottest period of the day. The indoor illuminance delivered by the BSRC-BCR was about 300 and 140 lx in summer and winter, respectively. The ACH was about 13-14 and 5-7 in summer and winter, respectively, two times that induced by the RSC. (author)

Accounting for selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forested trees based on structural modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Ay, Jean-Sauveur; Guillemot, Joannès; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Doyen, Luc; Leadley, Paul

2015-04-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global change on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of application on forested trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8 km). We also compared the output of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM in term of bioclimatic response curves and potential distribution under current climate. According to the species and the spatial resolution of the calibration dataset, shapes of bioclimatic response curves the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between the SSDM and classical SDMs. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents a crucial step to account for economic constraints on tree

Modeling species’ realized climatic niche space and predicting their response to global warming for several western forest species with small geographic distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Marcus V. Warwell; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Nicholas L. Crookston

2010-01-01

The Random Forests multiple regression tree was used to develop an empirically based bioclimatic model of the presence-absence of species occupying small geographic distributions in western North America. The species assessed were subalpine larch (Larix lyallii), smooth Arizona cypress (Cupressus arizonica ssp. glabra...

Environmental psychology in the bioclimatic design; La psicologia ambiental en el diseno bioclimatico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cubillas Talamante, Lorena Gpe [Facultad de Arquitectura, Universidad Autonoma de Baja California, Mexicali, Baja California (Mexico)

2005-07-01

The bioclimatic design profits of the natural resources for the improvement of the construction quality as well as the user's life. The combination of these two concepts within the architectonic design generates an interesting duality to consider within the understanding of the user's physical and psychological environment and the obtaining of a correlation of reality and dreams. Environmental psychology is focused on the researching of the psychological effects of the architectonic environment on the human experience and behavior. Human behavior works under parameters established during its development. Through the habits and styles of life practiced in childhood those parameters establish themselves to later on obtain satisfiers in the search of the life quality of human beings. [Spanish] El diseno bioclimatico aprovecha los recursos naturales para el mejoramiento de la calidad de la construccion y vida del usuario. La combinacion de estos dos conceptos dentro del diseno arquitectonico, genera dualidad interesante de entender el medio ambiente fisico y psicologico de los usuarios y obtener una identificacion entre la realidad y los suenos. La psicologia ambiental se ha enfocado a investigar sobre la relacion de los efectos psicologicos del ambiente construido o arquitectonico sobre la conducta y la experiencia humana. La conducta humana trabaja bajo parametros establecidos durante el desarrollo del mismo, a traves de los habitos y estilos de vida desde su infancia van marcando esos parametros que despues sirven para lograr satisfactores en la busqueda de la calidad de vida de los seres humanos.

Bioclimatic buildings of 16 houses in Pozuelo de Alarcon (Madrid); Edificio bioclimatico de 16 viviendas de promocion publica pra jovenes en Pozuelo de Alarcon. (Madrid)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yanez, G.; Yanez-Lopez del Amo, L.

2004-07-01

We present in this article a housing building for young people recently built for the Autonomous Administration of Madrid in Pozuelo de Alarcon in which have been applied some bioclimatic and energy efficiency techniques. In this communication are described the main architectural features and are exposed some of the estimated results of energy saving and reduction of Co2. (Author)

A statistical approach to bioclimatic trend detection in the airborne pollen records of Catalonia (NE Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Belmonte, Jordina; Delgado, Rosario; De Linares, Concepción

2014-04-01

Airborne pollen records are a suitable indicator for the study of climate change. The present work focuses on the role of annual pollen indices for the detection of bioclimatic trends through the analysis of the aerobiological spectra of 11 taxa of great biogeographical relevance in Catalonia over an 18-year period (1994-2011), by means of different parametric and non-parametric statistical methods. Among others, two non-parametric rank-based statistical tests were performed for detecting monotonic trends in time series data of the selected airborne pollen types and we have observed that they have similar power in detecting trends. Except for those cases in which the pollen data can be well-modeled by a normal distribution, it is better to apply non-parametric statistical methods to aerobiological studies. Our results provide a reliable representation of the pollen trends in the region and suggest that greater pollen quantities are being liberated to the atmosphere in the last years, specially by Mediterranean taxa such as Pinus, Total Quercus and Evergreen Quercus, although the trends may differ geographically. Longer aerobiological monitoring periods are required to corroborate these results and survey the increasing levels of certain pollen types that could exert an impact in terms of public health.

The relationship between bioclimatic thermal stress and subjective thermal sensation in pedestrian spaces

Science.gov (United States)

Pearlmutter, David; Jiao, Dixin; Garb, Yaakov

2014-12-01

Outdoor thermal comfort has important implications for urban planning and energy consumption in the built environment. To better understand the relation of subjective thermal experience to bioclimatic thermal stress in such contexts, this study compares micrometeorological and perceptual data from urban spaces in the hot-arid Negev region of Israel. Pedestrians reported on their thermal sensation in these spaces, whereas radiation and convection-related data were used to compute the Index of Thermal Stress (ITS) and physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). The former is a straightforward characterization of energy exchanges between the human body and its surroundings, without any conversion to an "equivalent temperature." Although the relation of ITS to subjective thermal sensation has been analyzed in the past under controlled indoor conditions, this paper offers the first analysis of this relation in an outdoor setting. ITS alone can account for nearly 60 % of the variance in pedestrians' thermal sensation under outdoor conditions, somewhat more than PET. A series of regressions with individual contextual variables and ITS identified those factors which accounted for additional variance in thermal sensation, whereas multivariate analyses indicated the considerable predictive power ( R-square = 0.74) of models including multiple contextual variables in addition to ITS. Our findings indicate that pedestrians experiencing variable outdoor conditions have a greater tolerance for incremental changes in thermal stress than has been shown previously under controlled indoor conditions, with a tapering of responses at high values of ITS. However, the thresholds of ITS corresponding to thermal "neutrality" and thermal "acceptability" are quite consistent regardless of context.

Thermal damping effect due to a green barrier which includes Arundo donax as bioclimatic element in buildings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Rodríguez-Salinas

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Among the main environmental impacts of the operation of residential buildings are those due to greenhouse gases generation as a result of electric consumption of air conditioning systems. The use of vegetation systems in residential buildings represents an alternative to reduce this energy consumption. Green vegetation systems barriers are often used as protection against winds, but recently they are also being used as acoustic dampers. This work explores their use as thermal insulation systems for buildings. Specifically, we report the behavior of an Arundo donax green barrier as a bioclimatic element. The results are analyzed based on indoor and outdoor temperature measurement in prototype buildings, in function of the green barrier presence. Additionally Arundo donax transpiration under extreme environmental conditions was determined.

Approaching to a model for evaluating of the vulnerability of the vegetable covers of Colombia in a possible climatic change using SIG

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gutierrez Rey, Hilda Jeanneth

2002-01-01

This technical paper summarizes the gradual thesis Approach to a model for evaluating of the vulnerability of the vegetation covers in Colombia in face of a possible global climate change (Gutierrez, 2001). It present the methodologies and results of the construction of a prospective model using GIS (Geographical Information Systems) for evaluating the vulnerability of the vegetation covers of Colombia, in face of a possible global climate chance. The analysis of the vulnerability of the possible impact on vegetation and for identification of its vulnerability as a consequence of climate change was carried out by application of the method of direct function establishing, recommended by IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1999). An analysis of the displacement of Life Zones of Holdridge was made under a scenario with duplication of the CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere and identified vegetation affected by displacement. These results were adjusted to the bioclimatic and biogeographic conditions of the country. The Model of Vulnerability of the Vegetation Covers of Colombia was developed in Spatial Modeler Language, of Arc/lnfo and Erdas Imagine. This model is able to generate the spatial distribution of the climatic variables and Bioclimatic Units, under past, present and future climate scenarios, as well as to evaluate the degree of vulnerability of the vegetation covers of Colombia in face a climatic change. For the improvement of the model of Vulnerability, specially the intermediate products, it was subdivided in three Phases or Subsystems: In the First Phase or Present Subsystem, the sub models generate a Bioclimatic Zonification of the Life Zones of Holdridge, under a currently scenario of Climatic Line Base 1961-1990. In the Second Phase or Subsystem of Climate Change, the sub models develop a Bioclimatic Zonification of the Life Zones of Holdridge, under a future climate Scenario with duplication of the contained of the CO 2 in the atmosphere

Cost-Benefit of the energy saving in the bioclimatic designs; Costo-Beneficio del ahorro de energia en los disenos bioclimaticos

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopez P, J. Manuel A. [Doble Dos Soluciones de Negocios, S.A. de C.V., Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Morillon G, David; Rodriguez V, Luis [Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

1999-07-01

Tools and criteria for the Cost-Benefit analysis from the energy saving in bioclimatic designs (BD) are presented, for which, a reference project is established and the costs and benefits of energy saving in BD with base in that project are evaluated. A case study is presented taking as reference the traditional design of the air conditioning of a building and with this base the estimation of cost-benefit of the same building is made, but with passive systems. The tools used are those that allow to consider related resources such as time and money; in that sense, are used criteria such as: Present value (PV), Equivalent Annual Cost (EAC) and the Cost of the Conserved Energy (CCE). The costs related to the construction, maintenance and operation of the design are taken into account. The differences between the reference design and the BD, established from the application of these criteria, allow to evaluate the economic margin of the BD as far as operation and maintenance is concerned. Finally the CCE of the bioclimatic measures is evaluated as an initiative of energy saving and the present value is calculated of the energy saving in the entire useful life of a bioclimatic design. [Spanish] Se presentan herramientas y criterios para el analisis Costo-Beneficio del ahorro de energia en disenos bioclimaticos (DB), para lo cual, se establece un proyecto de referencia y se evaluan los costos y beneficios del ahorro de energia en DB con base en ese proyecto. Se presenta el estudio de un caso tomando como referencia el dise tradicional de la climatizacion de un edificio y con base en este, se realiza la estimacion de costos y beneficios del mismo edificio, pero con sistemas pasivos. Las herramientas usadas, son aquellas que permiten considerar recursos relacionados como son tiempo y dinero; en ese sentido, se usan criterios como: Valor Presente (VP), Costo Anual Equivalente (CAE) y el Costo de la Energia Conservada (CEC). Se toman en consideracion los costos relacionados

Environmental psychology in the bioclimatic design; La psicologia ambiental en el diseno bioclimatico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cubillas Talamante, Lorena Gpe [Facultad de Arquitectura, Universidad Autonoma de Baja California, Mexicali, Baja California (Mexico)

2005-07-01

The bioclimatic design profits of the natural resources for the improvement of the construction quality as well as the user's life. The combination of these two concepts within the architectonic design generates an interesting duality to consider within the understanding of the user's physical and psychological environment and the obtaining of a correlation of reality and dreams. Environmental psychology is focused on the researching of the psychological effects of the architectonic environment on the human experience and behavior. Human behavior works under parameters established during its development. Through the habits and styles of life practiced in childhood those parameters establish themselves to later on obtain satisfiers in the search of the life quality of human beings. [Spanish] El diseno bioclimatico aprovecha los recursos naturales para el mejoramiento de la calidad de la construccion y vida del usuario. La combinacion de estos dos conceptos dentro del diseno arquitectonico, genera dualidad interesante de entender el medio ambiente fisico y psicologico de los usuarios y obtener una identificacion entre la realidad y los suenos. La psicologia ambiental se ha enfocado a investigar sobre la relacion de los efectos psicologicos del ambiente construido o arquitectonico sobre la conducta y la experiencia humana. La conducta humana trabaja bajo parametros establecidos durante el desarrollo del mismo, a traves de los habitos y estilos de vida desde su infancia van marcando esos parametros que despues sirven para lograr satisfactores en la busqueda de la calidad de vida de los seres humanos.

Bioclimatic predictions of habitat suitability for the biofuel switchgrass in North America under current and future climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barney, Jacob N.; DiTomaso, Joseph M.

2010-01-01

Dedicated biofuel crops, while providing economic and other benefits, may adversely impact biodiversity directly via land use conversion, or indirectly via creation of novel invasive species. To mitigate negative impacts bioclimatic envelope models (BEM) can be used to estimate the potential distribution and suitable habitat based on the climate and distribution in the native range. We used CLIMEX to evaluate the regions of North America suitable for agronomic production, as well as regions potentially susceptible to an invasion of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) under both current and future climate scenarios. Model results show that >8.7 million km 2 of North America has suitable to very favorable habitat, most of which occurs east of the Rocky Mountains. The non-native range of western North America is largely unsuitable to switchgrass as a crop or potential weed unless irrigation or permanent water is available. Under both the CGCM2 and HadCM3 climate models and A2 and B2 emissions scenarios, an overall increase in suitable habitat is predicted over the coming century, although the western US remains unsuitable. Our results suggest that much of North America is suitable for switchgrass cultivation, although this is likely to shift north in the coming century. Our results also agree with field collections of switchgrass outside its native range, which indicate that switchgrass is unlikely to establish unless it has access to water throughout the year (e.g., along a stream). Thus, it is the potential invasion of switchgrass into riparian habitats in the West that requires further investigation. (author)

Phytoadaptation in Desert Soil Prediction Using Fuzzy Logic Modeling

OpenAIRE

S. Bouharati; F. Allag; M. Belmahdi; M. Bounechada

2014-01-01

In terms of ecology forecast effects of desertification, the purpose of this study is to develop a predictive model of growth and adaptation of species in arid environment and bioclimatic conditions. The impact of climate change and the desertification phenomena is the result of combined effects in magnitude and frequency of these phenomena. Like the data involved in the phytopathogenic process and bacteria growth in arid soil occur in an uncertain environment because of their complexity, it ...

Ecological niche modeling and land cover risk areas for rift valley fever vector, culex tritaeniorhynchus giles in Jazan, Saudi Arabia.

Science.gov (United States)

Sallam, Mohamed F; Al Ahmed, Azzam M; Abdel-Dayem, Mahmoud S; Abdullah, Mohamed A R

2013-01-01

The mosquito, Culex tritaeniorhynchus Giles is a prevalent and confirmed Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV) vector. This vector, in association with Aedimorphus arabiensis (Patton), was responsible for causing the outbreak of 2000 in Jazan Province, Saudi Arabia. Larval occurrence records and a total of 19 bioclimatic and three topographic layers imported from Worldclim Database were used to predict the larval suitable breeding habitats for this vector in Jazan Province using ArcGIS ver.10 and MaxEnt modeling program. Also, a supervised land cover classification from SPOT5 imagery was developed to assess the land cover distribution within the suitable predicted habitats. Eleven bioclimatic and slope attributes were found to be the significant predictors for this larval suitable breeding habitat. Precipitation and temperature were strong predictors of mosquito distribution. Among six land cover classes, the linear regression model (LM) indicated wet muddy substrate is significantly associated with high-very high suitable predicted habitats (R(2) = 73.7%, Presearchers.

RECOGNITION OF MONTHLY HUMAN BIOCLIMATIC COMFORT WITH TOURISM CLIMATE INDEX IN RAMSAR, SOUTH-WEST OF CASPIAN SEA, IRAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

BAHMAN RAMEZANI GOURABI

Full Text Available Weather and climate have great importance in developing of tourism industry. Most of the tourists use the climate information for travelling and choice of destination. Knowledge of climate informationand its application can assist tourism planning, tourism industries and in reducing negative effects of weather and climate on tourists and this branch of the economy. The aim of this research isrecognition of suitable months in Ramsar station on the basis of Becker method and tourism climate index (TCI, for a period of 25 years (1981-2005.The results of Becker method has shown thatRamsar station has a bioclimatic comfort in 10 months. Weather in 7 months (March, April, May, September, October, November, and December is moderate and desirable. June, July, and Augusthave a little warm and tolerate weather, but in January and February, Ramsar station has a cool weather with moderate stimulation. Evaluation of TCI index for Ramsar station has shown that May month has the best climate conditions with 80-89 range (Excellent for tourism activities. June and October months have a "very good" climate conditions. April, July, and September are included in the"good" category while August and November are included in the "acceptable" category. January, February, March, and December have the "unfavorable" conditions.

Spatio-temporal distribution of mites (Acari: Oribtida Michael, 1883 and Reuter Gamasida) in different bioclimatic stages of northern Algeria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghezaki, D; Soumya, F.

2012-01-01

The study conducted in different bioclimatic areas, has revealed that mites particularly Oribatida present a staggering distribution inspace and time in correlation with the improvement of the ecological conditions.The arid and semi-arid areas constitute a less favorable environment in contrast tothe humid and sub humid zones which are characterised by a more favorable variety of vegetation and climatic conditions. These conditions constitute a favorable environment for the development of mites especially Oribati. There are 6 species in arid zones, 11 species in semi-arid zones and 30 in wetlands and sub-humid areas. This hierarchical classification of mites stands is in good agreement with the environmental conditions which prevail in this region. However, it can be noted that the behavior of mites species manifests itself differently. Certain species show tolerance to these variations and their distribution area is important and very large. On the contrary, the majority of species whose distribution area is limited are very demanding vis-a-vis these conditions. Their presence requires some moisture in the environment and an adequate nutritional support (litter). It constitutes an important biological indicator since it helps in understanding the natural or anthropogenic changes that can alter the environment. (author)

Energy saving in office buildings through cheap bioclimatic design measures; Ahorro de energia en edificios de oficinas a partir de medidas de diseno bioclimatico de bajo costo

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garcia Chavez, Jose Roberto [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana, Unidad Azcapotzalco (Mexico)

2007-01-15

This article shows the study performed in a building of Campus Uni dad Azcapotzalco in order to evaluate some bioclimatic design strategies. And to reach the higrothermic comfort and the appropriate lighting to favor employees to increase their performance in work activities. There are some strategies in order to solve this problem: the skylight area reduction, existing lights change, ventilation increase, fixed partition door implementation, etc. The obtained outcomes make possible the beginning of bioclimatic design use to save energy in other buildings, because sometimes edifications possess a design that cause the energy waste. [Spanish] En este articulo se muestra el estudio que se hizo en un edificio en el Campus Unidad Azcapotzalco, el fin de esta labor es evaluar ciertas estrategias de diseno bioclimatico para que las personas que operan en este edificio puedan tener confort higrotermico y una iluminacion pertinente, que den como resultado un mejor desempeno en las tareas que realizan. Algunas de las estrategias para darle solucion a esta problematica son: disminuir del area de lucernarios, cambiar las luminarias existentes, aumentar la ventilacion, implementar canceleria, etc. Con los resultados obtenidos nace la esperanza de que se utilicen estrategias de diseno bioclimatico para ahorrar energia en otros edificios, ya que muchas veces las edificaciones poseen un diseno que unicamente provoca el uso imprudente de la energia.

A Cool Urban Island Change 1990 - 2014. Comparative Bioclimatic Analysis in a Desert Climate, the Case of Antofagasta City Square

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez Lancellotti, Gino; Ziede Bize, Marcela

2017-10-01

This article proposes to make a comparative bioclimatic analysis from 1990 to 2014 of the main square of Antofagasta, a coastal desert city in Chile, which was remodelled in 1995, and shows how the redesigning of green areas affects the microclimatic conditions and thermal comfort of the urban space. Ex ante measurements dating 1990 were compared with ex post results from 2014. Data were obtained in both cases in the month of September at different times of a day and in different climate conditions. The variables studied were: land surface temperature, humidity, wind speed, amount of light and square use frequency inside the square and in surrounding streets. The temperatures are not statistically different during the years 1990 and 2014 for the city of Antofagasta. The main layout of the square has not changed, and inside the square it is similar for both periods, but new species were introduced and bigger trees with shadow projection were cut down. The square had a micro-climate role in 2014 as well as in 1990. The highest frequency zone with an important surface lost it is comfort thermic condition with an increase of 1°C. Other smaller zones with less relevance for users gained in cooling with a 0.5°C reduction. The new design has been detrimental to the intensity of its micro climatic regulatory function affecting the thermic comfort of the square’s internal spaces, especially those formerly protected by shadow, which mitigate a high solar radiation. The study results suggest that bio-climatic analysis of public open spaces is a key component for the design of future projects as a heat mitigating tool in the context of climate change. Research question is: How does the redesign of the square impact a cool urban island and the thermic comfort of users? Significant differences between data in situ collected in 1990 and 2014. Thermal comfort was negatively affected by the redesign in the square. The square is still a cool island but with less strength.

Multivariate Bioclimatic Ecosystem Change Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

2015-02-06

course the sandy soils of the Sandhills will not migrate. This observation suggests that a new nomenclature for ecosystems must be developed if...Coast Sandhills. At that time period, not only will the climate be similar, but the soil character will also be similar. Therefore about the year 2115...Disaggregation of global circulation model outputs decision and policy analysis. Working Paper No. 2. Cali, Colombia : International Centre for Tropical

Modeling distribution of Phoneutria bahiensis (Araneae: Ctenidae: an endemic and threatened spider from Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcelo A Dias

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Phoneutria bahiensis Simó & Brescovit, 2001 is a large ctenid spider inhabiting the states of Bahia and Espírito Santo, Brazil. Considering that it is probably endemic, this species was included in the Brazilian red book of threatened species. Here, we predict the distribution range of P. bahiensis using 19 bioclimatic variables in the model design. The most septentrional record for this spider was indicated for northern Bahia. The model predicts that the distribution range covers the Atlantic Forest from the state of Paraíba to Rio de Janeiro, with the best suitable area in the Atlantic Forest of the state of Bahia. The bioclimatic variable with the best contribution to the model was precipitation in the driest quarter. Based on collected data, the species inhabits Ombrophilous Forests and Restinga vegetation, two ecosystems of the Atlantic Forest biome. In the best-predicted area of distribution, eleven Conservation Units were included. This information could be considered for future conservation plans of this species.

Regionalization and classification of bioclimatic zones in the central-northeastern region of Mexico using principal component analysis (PCA)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pineda-Martinez, L.F.; Carbajal, N.; Medina-Roldan, E. [Instituto Potosino de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica, A. C., San Luis Potosi (Mexico)]. E-mail: lpineda@ipicyt.edu.mx

2007-04-15

Applying principal component analysis (PCA), we determined climate zones in a topographic gradient in the central-northeastern part of Mexico. We employed nearly 30 years of monthly temperature and precipitation data at 173 meteorological stations. The climate classification was carried out applying the Koeppen system modified for the conditions of Mexico. PCA indicates a regionalization in agreement with topographic characteristics and vegetation. We describe the different bioclimatic zones, associated with typical vegetation, for each climate using geographical information systems (GIS). [Spanish] Utilizando un analisis de componentes principales, determinamos zonas climaticas en un gradiente topografico en la zona centro-noreste de Mexico. Se emplearon datos de precipitacion y temperatura medias mensuales por un periodo de 30 anos de 173 estaciones meteorologicas. La clasificacion del clima fue llevada a cabo de acuerdo con el sistema de Koeppen modificado para las condiciones de Mexico. El analisis de componentes principales indico una regionalizacion que concuerda con caracteristicas de topografia y vegetacion. Se describen zonas bioclimaticas, asociadas a vegetacion tipica para cada clima, usando sistemas de informacion geografica (SIG).

Adjustment of the architecture to the bioclimatic conditions of the environment on case study of the monsoon modernism of architect Geoffrey Bawa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danilović-Hristić Nataša

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Geoffrey Bawa (1919-2003, not well known in our ambience, was Sri Lanka's most influential architect and South Asia's leading guru of unique style, named tropical architecture. The distinction of his work is outstanding aesthetic sensitivity to site and context, especially to peculiar climatic conditions and demands. For his architectural opus he received in 2001 prestigious Aga Khan Award for Architecture, Special Chairman's Award. Although he started to engage in architecture late, in age of 38, soon he became a noted by his inventiveness in forming new canons and prototypes of modern architecture, based on traditional knowledge and perfectly fitted in local surrounding. Bawa created sustainable architecture even before the term started to be used and his masterpieces broke down the barrier between inside and outside space, designing of the interior and landscaping, reducing the building to a series of scenic spaces separated by courtyards and gardens. He is well known by his designs for private villas and hotels, but his portfolio contains public building, as schools and universities, new Sri Lanka's Parliament, sacral, office and industrial structures. Through the presentation of several projects, the paper analyzes his development path and basic characteristics of so called 'monsoon modernism' and special relationship to the bioclimatic conditions of the environment.

Social and environmental impact of the bioclimatic design; Impacto social y ambiental del diseno bioclimatico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopez P, J. Manuel A; Morrillon G, David; Rodriguez V, Luis [Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

2000-07-01

This article is about two important scopes of the Bioclimatical Design (BD), the Social scope and the environmental scope. As an introduction, it is justified the importance of this topic through the association of the BD in the context of sustainability with our country's economic model. The analysis is done under the perspective of effects of the BD on social and environmental scopes. In social scope is used the Cost and Benefit Analysis according to social evaluation. In environmental scope, effects in water, air and ground are studied, but the measurement is done according to the emissions reduction of CO{sub 2} on atmosphere because of the earn on energy consumption. The results of the measurement of this effects are related with economical costs and benefits, which may show a general view about economical, social and environmental scopes. As conclusions, interest results are show and this is proposed to incorporate them in the economical politics. [Spanish] En este articulo se tocan dos aspectos importantes del Diseno Bioclimatico (DB), el Impacto Social y el Impacto Ambiental. En la introduccion se justifica la importancia del tema, asociando el DB en el contexto de la sustentabilidad, con el modelo economico que se ha imperado en nuestro pais. El estudio se realiza bajo la perspectiva de los impactos que el DB tiene en el aspecto social y en el ambiental. En lo social, se recurre a la metodologia del Analisis Costo-Beneficio para evaluacion Social, en lo ambiental, aunque se tocan los puntos de impacto en aire, agua y uso de suelo, la medicion del impacto se realiza con base en la disminucion de emisiones de CO{sub 2} a la atmosfera por el ahorro en el consumo de energia electrica. Los resultados de la medicion de impactos se cruzan con los costos y beneficios economicos, para presentar un panorama completo en cuanto a aspectos economicos, sociales y ambientales. En las conclusiones se rescatan los resultados de interes y se proponen las inserciones de

Niche-based modelling as a tool for predicting the risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Thuiller, W.; Richardson, D. M.; Pyšek, Petr; Midgley, G. F.; Hughes, G. O.; Rouget, M.

2005-01-01

Roč. 11, - (2005), s. 2234-2250 ISSN 1354-1013 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/03/1216 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : bioclimatic modelling * biological invasions * risk assessment Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 4.075, year: 2005

Use of bioclimatic indexes to characterize phenological phases of apple varieties in Northern Italy.

Science.gov (United States)

Valentini, N; Me, G; Ferrero, R; Spanna, F

2001-11-01

The research was designed to characterize the phenological behaviour of different apple varieties and to compare different bioclimatic indexes in order to evaluate their adaptability in describing the phenological phases of fruit species. A field study on the requirement for chilling units (winter chilling requirement) and the accumulation of growing degree hours of 15 native apple cultivars was carried out in a fruit-growing area in North West Italy (Cuneo Province, Piedmont). From 1991 to 1993, climatic data were collected at meteorological stations installed in an experimental orchard (Verzuolo, Cuneo). Four methods were compared to determine the winter chilling requirement: Hutchins, Weinberger-Eggert, Utah and North Carolina. The Utah method was applied to determine the time when the chilling units accumulated become effective in meeting the rest requirements. A comparison of the different methods indicated that the Weinberger-Eggert method is the best: as it showed the lowest statistical variability during the 3 years of observations. The growing degree hour requirement (GDH) was estimated by the North Carolina method with two different base temperatures: 4.4 degrees C and 6.1 degrees C. More difficulties were met when the date of rest completion and the beginning of GDH accumulation was determined. The best base temperature for the estimation of GDH is 4.4 degrees C. Phenological and climatic characterizations are two basic tools for giving farmers and agricultural advisors important information about which varieties to choose and which are the best and the most correct cultivation practices to follow.

Bioclimatic architecture in a social interest house; Arquitectura bioclimatica en la vivienda de interes social

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morillon Galvez, David [Programa Universitario de Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico D.F. (Mexico)

2005-07-01

The bioclimatic architecture tries to promote one more type of design and to settle down bases to become aware and have a change of attitude toward the designing and use of the construction materials and equipment. The change consists in offering tools so that the designer and constructor consider the interaction of the environment over the construction site, in order for this last to regulate the heat interchanges with the environment and provide comfort conditions for human beings. With base in the study of the bioclima of the diverse climatic zones of the Republic, recommendations for the architectonic and urban design are emitted. Also, we will analyze and discuss over the tool that represents the bioclimatic design for the construction of buildings, under the considering that approximately 66 % of the country is submitted to warm climate. The recommendations will consist in defining the favorable orientation of the facades to the climate of the site along with thermal characteristics, thickness and finishing of the construction materials, exposure to the sun in windows, forms of the building, among others. These recommendations will allow to obtain a building designed for the conditions of comfort and at the same time energy saving, in accordance with the official norms for the thermal design of the building cover that, in this year will be compulsory for the case of non residential buildings and approaching to residential buildings. This can be without extra cost for the builder and surely with benefits for the user, such as electrical energy saving, diminution of the billing, thermal and environmental comfort conditions, among others. All of this will be presented in this document besides constructed projects and examples of modification in the present designs of houses in the country. [Spanish] La arquitectura bioclimatica trata de promover un tipo mas de diseno, trata de sentar bases para la toma de conciencia y un cambio de actitud respecto al diseno y al

Energy efficiency and bioclimatic architecture - the case of the Center of Energy and Sustainable Technologies; Eficiencia energetica e arquitetura bioclimatica - o caso do Centro de Energia e Tecnologias Sustentaveis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stilpen, Daniel Vasconcellos de Sousa

2007-07-15

This thesis analyzes the energy efficiency of a single-family dwelling, constructed in Ilha do Fundao, Rio de Janeiro. It first describes the Center of Energy and Sustainable Technologies and also evaluates the thermal behavior of the non-conventional materials used in its construction. After that, a thermal comfort experiment, in accordance with the thermal comfort theory proposed by Fanger, is presented. Then, the experimental data analysis, from more than 300 (three hundred) interviews, is shown. Finally, some bioclimatic suggestions for modifications in the architecture project of the dwelling are presented. All solutions represent significant increases in the human thermal comfort responses, with low implementation cost.

Allotment plan as a condition for sustainable development on the example of detailed regulation 'Stanko Vlasotinčanin' in Nis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Obradović Tanja

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In order to protect the environment and creation the conditions for a good and healthy life, the construction of buildings should be sustainable. It is essential that the entire process that includes planning, design and realization, be consistent with bioclimatic principles. Allotment plan should be an integral part of the planning process because it is an instrument to control the use of construction land and prevention the negative consequences that are created by uncontrolled action of the market. This paper analyzes the detailed regulation plan, 'Stanko Vlasotinčanin' in Nis with emphasis on the lack of plan allotment and (non application of bioclimatic principles in the planning. Performs a comparison with the detailed planning before 2003, ie. before the Law on planning and construction. Analyses the legislation relating to land use. Recommendations for amending the same, and the introduction of urban consolidation as a possible model of land development and implementation of spatial planning. It is concluded that it is necessary to undertake a number of different measures that are primarily related to the amendment and enforcement of legislation, the introduction of assessment of market value of land and the involvement and the willingness of experts and institutions for their implementation.

The Importance of Biotic vs. Abiotic Drivers of Local Plant Community Composition Along Regional Bioclimatic Gradients.

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Kari Klanderud

Full Text Available We assessed if the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors for plant community composition differs along environmental gradients and between functional groups, and asked which implications this may have in a warmer and wetter future. The study location is a unique grid of sites spanning regional-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in boreal and alpine grasslands in southern Norway. Within each site we sampled vegetation and associated biotic and abiotic factors, and combined broad- and fine-scale ordination analyses to assess the relative explanatory power of these factors for species composition. Although the community responses to biotic and abiotic factors did not consistently change as predicted along the bioclimatic gradients, abiotic variables tended to explain a larger proportion of the variation in species composition towards colder sites, whereas biotic variables explained more towards warmer sites, supporting the stress gradient hypothesis. Significant interactions with precipitation suggest that biotic variables explained more towards wetter climates in the sub alpine and boreal sites, but more towards drier climates in the colder alpine. Thus, we predict that biotic interactions may become more important in alpine and boreal grasslands in a warmer future, although more winter precipitation may counteract this trend in oceanic alpine climates. Our results show that both local and regional scales analyses are needed to disentangle the local vegetation-environment relationships and their regional-scale drivers, and biotic interactions and precipitation must be included when predicting future species assemblages.

A bioclimatic characterization of high elevation habitats in the Alborz mountains of Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Noroozi, Jalil; Körner, Christian

2018-01-01

The Alborz mountains in N-Iran at 36° N rise from the Caspian Sea to 5671 m a.s.l., with warm-temperate, winter-deciduous forests in the lower montane belt in northern slopes, and vast treeless terrain at higher elevation. A lack of rainfall (ca. 550 mm at high elevations) cannot explain the absence of trees. Hence, it is an open question, which parts of these mountains belong to the alpine belt. Here we use bioclimatic data to estimate the position of the potential climatic treeline, and thus, define bioclimatologically, what is alpine and what is not. We employed the same miniature data loggers and protocol that had been applied in a Europe-wide assessment of alpine climates and a global survey of treeline temperatures. The data suggest a potential treeline position at ca. 3300 m a.s.l., that is ca. 900 m above the upper edge of the current oak forest, or 450 m above its highest outposts. The alpine terrain above the climatic treeline position shows a temperature regime comparable to sites in the European Alps. At the upper limit of angiosperm life, at 4850 m a.s.l., the growing season lasted 63 days with a seasonal mean root zone temperature of 4.5 °C. We conclude that (1) the absence of trees below 2850 m a.s.l. is clearly due to millennia of land use. The absence of trees between 2850 and 3300 m a.s.l. is either due to the absence of suitable tree taxa, or the only potential regional taxon for those elevations, Juniperus excelsa , had been eradicated by land use as well. (2) These continental mountains provide thermal life conditions in the alpine belt similar to other temperate mountains. (3) Topography and snow melt regimes play a significant role for the structure of the alpine vegetation mosaics.

Mathematical Modeling of Air Flowfield at Urban Environment: the Case of Road Network at the Historical Centre of Kifissia's Municipality

Science.gov (United States)

Papakonstantinou, K.; Belias, C.

2008-09-01

The present paper refers to the numerical analysis of air flowfield at urban environments and the conducting thermal comfort after the evaluation of the examined space using CFD methods, taking into account bioclimatic principles at the architectural design. More specially, the paper draws attention to the physical procedures governing air movement at an urban environment (a road network) at Kifissia (a Municipality of north Athens), trying to form them in such way that will lead to the thermal comfort of the area's users. The study presents a mathematical model, implemented in a general computer code that can provide detailed information on velocity, prevailing in three-dimensional spaces of any geometrical complexity. Turbulent flow is simulated and buoyancy effects are taken into account. This simulation procedure is intended to contribute to the effort towards designing urban environments, using thermal comfort criteria at the bioclimatic design. A computer model of this kind will provide the architects or the environmental engineers with powerful and economical means of evaluating alternative spaces' designs.

Italian bioclimatic architecture

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D' Errico, E

1987-04-01

This paper deals with the results of solar space heating research developed within the Finalized Energy Project of the National Research Council of Italy. Energy and cost/benefit parameters were compared for a certain number of Italian buildings incorporating solar architecture. The technical and economic analysis was performed on 31 buildings, of which 24 are residential, and 7 are schools, with different solar devices (direct gain, Trombe walls, sunspaces, hybrid systems). The buildings were constructed between 1976 and 1982. The results emphasize that simple technologies with lower costs and good design usually have a higher performance/cost ratio.

Bioclimatic maps for tourism purposes

Science.gov (United States)

Matzarakis, Andreas; Rudel, Ernest; Zygmuntowski, Markus; Koch, Elisabeth

Several daily measurements of air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and mean cloud cover are required for the calculation of the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET). Using data obtained from daily measurements at 7, 14 and 19 CET over the period from 1991 to 2000 of 201 Austrian climate stations, we analysed the thermal bioclimate in Austria. The calculated PET-values were compared with the results of another computation using synoptic data not only from Austria but also from neighbouring countries. The mean radiant temperature is rather complex, as it covers all relevant short and long-wave radiation fluxes and plays an important role in the energy balance of humans. Based on the individual current conditions, this parameter was calculated using the well-established ‘RayMan’ model, which was development based on guidelines of the German Engineering Society, i.e. VDI 3789 ( VDI, 1994). The mean radiant temperature is determined based on the mean cloud cover and the maximum possible global radiation at a certain time and location. Statistical and GIS methods were used to convert the point-data consisting of PET-values for individual climate stations into a continuous surface. PET was spatially interpolated through a multiple linear regression analysis on a given grid. The results reveal fundamental information which is of particular relevance to the tourism and recreation authorities. The results are also important for spas and wellness resorts.

[The prospects for the development of therapeutic and health-promoting tourism in Gorny Altai].

Science.gov (United States)

Dzhabarova, N K; Iakovenko, É S; Sidorina, N G; Firsova, I A

2014-01-01

The present balneological survey made it possible to identify the promising areas with a high potential for the health resort, recreational and touristic activities including the foothill, low-mountain, mid-mountain valleys and hollows of Northern, Northwestern, Central and Eastern bioclimatic provinces of Mountainous Altai. Recommendations have been proposed for the development of therapeutic and health-improving tourism in the Shebalinsk, Ust'-Kansk and Ulagansk districts of the Altai Republic.

Relationships between vegetation and climate change in Transbaikalia, Siberia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tchebakova, N.M.; Parfenova, E.I. [V.N. Sukachev Inst. of Forest, Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch, Akademgorodok, Krasnoyarsk (Russian Federation)

2002-10-01

This paper demonstrated how vegetation of the Lake Baikal basin may respond to climate change at a mountain biome (an orobiome over the entire basin) and a stand in a locality. An orobiome vegetation model was developed along with a higher resolution stand model based on climatic parameters. Regional climates were modeled based on physiology and site climates based on topography. Bioclimatic multiple regression models were then developed to predict regional vegetation and forest stand characteristics distribution over a mountain range in Central Transbaikalia under current and future climate scenarios. Bioclimatic models were combined with climatic layers of different resolutions. Tree species composition and wood volume was predicted based on 2 climate indices - temperature sums (base 5 degrees C) and the dryness index. Results indicate that lowland vegetation will shift 250 m upslope and highland vegetation will shift 450 m upslope. This will significantly reduce the tundra and light-needled taiga, and will expand the forest-steppe. Results also indicate that the total phytomass within the entire basin will not change much. Stand phytomass across the basin will, however, increase. The model used in this study does not include climate-forcing factors such as wind, snow and permafrost. The model is open to new development to include a dynamic components that would inject vitality into the model. 13 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.

Modelling the perception of weather conditions by users of outdoor public spaces

Science.gov (United States)

Andrade, H.; Oliveira, S.; Alcoforado, M.-J.

2009-09-01

Outdoor public spaces play an important role for the quality of life in urban areas. Their usage depends, among other factors, on the bioclimatic comfort of the users. Climate change can modify the uses of outdoor spaces, by changing temperature and rainfall patterns. Understanding the way people perceive the microclimatic conditions is an important tool to the design of more comfortable outdoor spaces and in anticipating future needs to cope with climate change impacts. The perception of bioclimatic comfort by users of two different outdoor spaces was studied in Lisbon. A survey of about one thousand inquires was carried out simultaneously with weather measurements (air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and solar and long wave radiation), during the years 2006 and 2007. The aim was to assess the relationships between weather variables, the individual characteristics of people (such as age and gender, among others) and their bioclimatic comfort. The perception of comfort was evaluated through the preference votes of the interviewees, which consisted on their answers concerning the desire to decrease, maintain or increase the values of the different weather parameters, in order to improve their comfort at the moment of the interview. The perception of the atmospheric conditions and of the bioclimatic comfort are highly influenced by subjective factors, which are difficult to integrate in a model. Nonetheless, the use of the multiple logistic regression allows the definition of patterns in the quantitative relation between preference votes and environmental and personal parameters. The thermal preference depends largely on the season and is associated with wind speed. Comfort in relation to wind depends not only on the speed but also on turbulence: a high variability in wind speed is generally perceived as uncomfortable. It was also found that the acceptability of warmer conditions is higher than for cooler conditions and the majority of people declared

Modeling the potential distribution of three lichens of the Xanthoparmelia pulla group (Parmeliaceae, Ascomycota in Central Europe

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Katarzyna Szczepańska

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The paper presents models of potential geographical distribution of Xanthoparmelia delisei, X. loxodes, and X. verruculifera in Central Europe. The models were developed with MaxEnt (maximum entropy algorithm based on 224 collection localities and bioclimatic variables. The applied method enabled to identify the areas where climatic conditions are the most suitable for modeled species outside their known localities. According to obtained model, high potential distribution of the X. delisei and X. loxodes was found in the northern and northeastern Poland, when areas most suitable for X. verruculifera were placed in the south, especially in the Carpathians. Model also suggests that potential distribution of X. delisei could be wider than known data on its occurrence and extend to Lithuania, Belarus and the Czech Republic. MaxEnt modeling of X. loxodes showed the widest potential distribution for this species in Central Europe with the best regions in Lithuania. Potential distribution in all models was strongly influenced by precipitation-related variables. All the modelled species prefer areas where precipitation in the coldest quarter is very low.

Bioclimatic changes and landslide recurrence in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro: are we ready to face the next landslide disaster?

Science.gov (United States)

Luiza Coelho Netto, Ana; Facadio, Ana Carolina; Pereira, Roberta; Lima, Pedro Henrique

2017-04-01

-induced fire nowadays). Despite all field evidences on the relevance of landslides on hillslope evolution in the mountainous domain, local communities at risk and governmental institutions are not yet ready to face the next extreme rain event. Since November 2014 a new governance and risk management model has been developed in the Córrego D'Antas basin, through a multi-institutional network integrating local communities, university and governmental institutions as will be presented in this paper.

Potential of bioclimatic architecture for energy saving in buildings; Potencial de la arquitectura bioclimatica para ahorro de energia en edificios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garcia Chavez, Jose Roberto [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Azcapotzalco, Mexico, D. F. (Mexico)

1994-12-31

The design and construction of current buildings has been characterized, most of all, in the last 30 years, for the lack of consideration in the design process of aspects that nowadays represent a fundamental importance. These aspects are related to energy conservation and environmental protection, with man as the main center of attention for the optimum satisfaction of its physiological as well as psychological needs. In this paper are presented the causes for the lack of consideration of the mentioned aspects and guidelines to follow are set forth for their integration in the design process. Also the architecture potential with a bioclimatic approach is analyzed, for energy saving in buildings. [Espanol] El diseno y construccion de edificios contemporaneos se ha caracterizado, sobre todo en los ultimos treinta anos, por la falta de consideracion en el proceso de diseno, de aspectos que hoy en dia revisten una importancia primordial. Estos aspectos se relacionan con la preservacion de la energia y del medio ambiente, teniendo al hombre como principal centro de atencion, para la satisfaccion optima de sus necesidades, tanto fisiologicas como psicologicas. En este trabajo, se presentan las causas de la falta de consideracion de los aspectos antes citados y se plantean las pautas a seguir para su integracion en el proceso de diseno. Asi mismo, se analiza el potencial de la arquitectura con un enfoque bioclimatico, para ahorro de energia en los edificios.

Climate change projections for Greek viticulture as simulated by a regional climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Lazoglou, Georgia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Koundouras, Stefanos

2017-07-01

Viticulture represents an important economic activity for Greek agriculture. Winegrapes are cultivated in many areas covering the whole Greek territory, due to the favorable soil and climatic conditions. Given the dependence of viticulture on climate, the vitivinicultural sector is expected to be affected by possible climatic changes. The present study is set out to investigate the impacts of climatic change in Greek viticulture, using nine bioclimatic indices for the period 1981-2100. For this purpose, reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and data from the regional climatic model Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) are used. It was found that the examined regional climate model estimates satisfactorily these bioclimatic indices. The results of the study show that the increasing trend of temperature and drought will affect all wine-producing regions in Greece. In vineyards in mountainous regions, the impact is positive, while in islands and coastal regions, it is negative. Overall, it should be highlighted that for the first time that Greece is classified into common climatic characteristic categories, according to the international Geoviticulture Multicriteria Climatic Classification System (MCC system). According to the proposed classification, Greek viticulture regions are estimated to have similar climatic characteristics with the warmer wine-producing regions of the world up to the end of twenty-first century. Wine growers and winemakers should take the findings of the study under consideration in order to take measures for Greek wine sector adaptation and the continuation of high-quality wine production.

Ensemble forecasting of species distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Araújo, Miguel B; New, Mark

2007-01-01

Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.

Characterization of potential fire regimes: applying landscape ecology to fire management in Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Jardel, E.; Alvarado, E.; Perez-Salicrup, D.; Morfín-Rios, J.

2013-05-01

Knowledge and understanding of fire regimes is fundamental to design sound fire management practices. The high ecosystem diversity of Mexico offers a great challenge to characterize the fire regime variation at the landscape level. A conceptual model was developed considering the main factors controlling fire regimes: climate and vegetation cover. We classified landscape units combining bioclimatic zones from the Holdridge life-zone system and actual vegetation cover. Since bioclimatic conditions control primary productivity and biomass accumulation (potential fuel), each landscape unit was considered as a fuel bed with a particular fire intensity and behavior potential. Climate is also a determinant factor of post-fire recovery rates of fuel beds, and climate seasonality (length of the dry and wet seasons) influences fire probability (available fuel and ignition efficiency). These two factors influence potential fire frequency. Potential fire severity can be inferred from fire frequency, fire intensity and behavior, and vegetation composition and structure. Based in the conceptual model, an exhaustive literature review and expert opinion, we developed rules to assign a potential fire regime (PFR) defined by frequency, intensity and severity (i.e. fire regime) to each bioclimatic-vegetation landscape unit. Three groups and eight types of potential fire regimes were identified. In Group A are fire-prone ecosystems with frequent low severity surface fires in grasslands (PFR type I) or forests with long dry season (II) and infrequent high-severity fires in chaparral (III), wet temperate forests (IV, fire restricted by humidity), and dry temperate forests (V, fire restricted by fuel recovery rate). Group B includes fire-reluctant ecosystems with very infrequent or occasional mixed severity surface fires limited by moisture in tropical rain forests (VI) or fuel availability in seasonally dry tropical forests (VII). Group C and PFR VIII include fire-free environments

VEMAP Phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA

Science.gov (United States)

Kittel, T.G.F.; Rosenbloom, N.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Daly, Christopher; Gibson, W.P.; Fisher, H.H.; Thornton, P.; Yates, D.N.; Aulenbach, S.; Kaufman, C.; McKeown, R.; Bachelet, D.; Schimel, D.S.; Neilson, R.; Lenihan, J.; Drapek, R.; Ojima, D.S.; Parton, W.J.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Tian, H.; McGuire, A.D.; Sykes, M.T.; Smith, B.; Cowling, S.; Hickler, T.; Prentice, I.C.; Running, S.; Hibbard, K.A.; Post, W.M.; King, A.W.; Smith, T.; Rizzo, B.; Woodward, F.I.

2004-01-01

Analysis and simulation of biospheric responses to historical forcing require surface climate data that capture those aspects of climate that control ecological processes, including key spatial gradients and modes of temporal variability. We developed a multivariate, gridded historical climate dataset for the conterminous USA as a common input database for the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP), a biogeochemical and dynamic vegetation model intercomparison. The dataset covers the period 1895-1993 on a 0.5?? latitude/longitude grid. Climate is represented at both monthly and daily timesteps. Variables are: precipitation, mininimum and maximum temperature, total incident solar radiation, daylight-period irradiance, vapor pressure, and daylight-period relative humidity. The dataset was derived from US Historical Climate Network (HCN), cooperative network, and snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) monthly precipitation and mean minimum and maximum temperature station data. We employed techniques that rely on geostatistical and physical relationships to create the temporally and spatially complete dataset. We developed a local kriging prediction model to infill discontinuous and limited-length station records based on spatial autocorrelation structure of climate anomalies. A spatial interpolation model (PRISM) that accounts for physiographic controls was used to grid the infilled monthly station data. We implemented a stochastic weather generator (modified WGEN) to disaggregate the gridded monthly series to dailies. Radiation and humidity variables were estimated from the dailies using a physically-based empirical surface climate model (MTCLIM3). Derived datasets include a 100 yr model spin-up climate and a historical Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) dataset. The VEMAP dataset exhibits statistically significant trends in temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure, and PDSI for US National Assessment regions. The historical climate and

Predictive modeling and mapping of Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) distribution using maximum entropy.

Science.gov (United States)

Nazeri, Mona; Jusoff, Kamaruzaman; Madani, Nima; Mahmud, Ahmad Rodzi; Bahman, Abdul Rani; Kumar, Lalit

2012-01-01

One of the available tools for mapping the geographical distribution and potential suitable habitats is species distribution models. These techniques are very helpful for finding poorly known distributions of species in poorly sampled areas, such as the tropics. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is a recently developed modeling method that can be successfully calibrated using a relatively small number of records. In this research, the MaxEnt model was applied to describe the distribution and identify the key factors shaping the potential distribution of the vulnerable Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus) in one of the main remaining habitats in Peninsular Malaysia. MaxEnt results showed that even though Malaysian sun bear habitat is tied with tropical evergreen forests, it lives in a marginal threshold of bio-climatic variables. On the other hand, current protected area networks within Peninsular Malaysia do not cover most of the sun bears potential suitable habitats. Assuming that the predicted suitability map covers sun bears actual distribution, future climate change, forest degradation and illegal hunting could potentially severely affect the sun bear's population.

Predictive modeling and mapping of Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus distribution using maximum entropy.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mona Nazeri

Full Text Available One of the available tools for mapping the geographical distribution and potential suitable habitats is species distribution models. These techniques are very helpful for finding poorly known distributions of species in poorly sampled areas, such as the tropics. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt is a recently developed modeling method that can be successfully calibrated using a relatively small number of records. In this research, the MaxEnt model was applied to describe the distribution and identify the key factors shaping the potential distribution of the vulnerable Malayan Sun Bear (Helarctos malayanus in one of the main remaining habitats in Peninsular Malaysia. MaxEnt results showed that even though Malaysian sun bear habitat is tied with tropical evergreen forests, it lives in a marginal threshold of bio-climatic variables. On the other hand, current protected area networks within Peninsular Malaysia do not cover most of the sun bears potential suitable habitats. Assuming that the predicted suitability map covers sun bears actual distribution, future climate change, forest degradation and illegal hunting could potentially severely affect the sun bear's population.

Developing an Agro-Ecological Zoning Model for Tumbleweed (Salsola kali, as Energy Crop in Drylands of Argentina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Falasca Silvia

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Salsola kali is considered extremely valuable as an energy crop worldwide because it adapts easily to environments with strong abiotic stresses (hydric, saline and alkaline and produces large amounts of biomass in drylands. This species is categorized as an important weed in Argentina. The aim of this work was to design an agro-ecological zoning model for tumbleweed in Argentina, employing a Geography Information System. Based on the bioclimatic requirements for the species and the climatic data for Argentina (1981–2010 period, an agro-climatic suitability map was drawn. This map was superimposed on the saline and alkaline soil maps delineated by the Food and Agriculture Organization for dry climates, generating the agro-ecological zoning on a scale of 1 : 500 000. This zoning revealed very suitable and suitable cultivation areas on halomorphic soils. The potential growing areas extend from N of the Salta province (approximately 22° S to the Santa Cruz province (50° S. The use of tumbleweed on halomorphic soils under semi-arid to arid conditions, for the dual purpose of forage use and source of lignocellulosic material for bioenergy, could improve agricultural productivity in these lands. Furthermore, it could also contribute to their environmental sustainability, since the species can be used to reclaim saline soils over the years. Based on international bibliography, the authors outlined an agro-ecological zoning model. This model may be applied to any part of the world, using the agro-ecological limits presented here.

Modelling the current distribution and predicted spread of the flea species Ctenocephalides felis infesting outdoor dogs in Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Gálvez, Rosa; Musella, Vicenzo; Descalzo, Miguel A; Montoya, Ana; Checa, Rocío; Marino, Valentina; Martín, Oihane; Cringoli, Giuseppe; Rinaldi, Laura; Miró, Guadalupe

2017-09-19

The cat flea, Ctenocephalides felis, is the most prevalent flea species detected on dogs and cats in Europe and other world regions. The status of flea infestation today is an evident public health concern because of their cosmopolitan distribution and the flea-borne diseases transmission. This study determines the spatial distribution of the cat flea C. felis infesting dogs in Spain. Using geospatial tools, models were constructed based on entomological data collected from dogs during the period 2013-2015. Bioclimatic zones, covering broad climate and vegetation ranges, were surveyed in relation to their size. The models builded were obtained by negative binomial regression of several environmental variables to show impacts on C. felis infestation prevalence: land cover, bioclimatic zone, mean summer and autumn temperature, mean summer rainfall, distance to urban settlement and normalized difference vegetation index. In the face of climate change, we also simulated the future distributions of C. felis for the global climate model (GCM) "GFDL-CM3" and for the representative concentration pathway RCP45, which predicts their spread in the country. Predictive models for current climate conditions indicated the widespread distribution of C. felis throughout Spain, mainly across the central northernmost zone of the mainland. Under predicted conditions of climate change, the risk of spread was slightly greater, especially in the north and central peninsula, than for the current situation. The data provided will be useful for local veterinarians to design effective strategies against flea infestation and the pathogens transmitted by these arthropods.

The Development of a Tool for Sustainable Building Design:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tine Ring Hansen, Hanne; Knudstrup, Mary-Ann

2009-01-01

for sustainable buildings, as well as, an analysis of the relationship between the different approaches (e.g. low-energy, environmental, green building, solar architecture, bio-climatic architecture etc.) to sustainable building design and these indicators. The paper furthermore discusses how sustainable......The understanding of sustainable building has changed over time along with the architectural interpretation of sustainability. The paper presents the results of a comparative analysis of the indicators found in different internationally acclaimed and Danish certification schemes and standards...... architecture will gain more focus in the coming years, thus, establishing the need for the development of a new tool and methodology, The paper furthermore describes the background and considerations involved in the development of a design support tool for sustainable building design. A tool which considers...

REMOTE SENSING-BASED DETECTION AND SPATIAL PATTERN ANALYSIS FOR GEO-ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING OF TILLANDSIA SPP. IN THE ATACAMA, CHILE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Wolf

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In the coastal Atacama Desert in Northern Chile plant growth is constrained to so-called ‘fog oases’ dominated by monospecific stands of the genus Tillandsia. Adapted to the hyperarid environmental conditions, these plants specialize on the foliar uptake of fog as main water and nutrient source. It is this characteristic that leads to distinctive macro- and micro-scale distribution patterns, reflecting complex geo-ecological gradients, mainly affected by the spatiotemporal occurrence of coastal fog respectively the South Pacific Stratocumulus clouds reaching inlands. The current work employs remote sensing, machine learning and spatial pattern/GIS analysis techniques to acquire detailed information on the presence and state of Tillandsia spp. in the Tarapacá region as a base to better understand the bioclimatic and topographic constraints determining the distribution patterns of Tillandsia spp. Spatial and spectral predictors extracted from WorldView-3 satellite data are used to map present Tillandsia vegetation in the Tarapaca region. Regression models on Vegetation Cover Fraction (VCF are generated combining satellite-based as well as topographic variables and using aggregated high spatial resolution information on vegetation cover derived from UAV flight campaigns as a reference. The results are a first step towards mapping and modelling the topographic as well as bioclimatic factors explaining the spatial distribution patterns of Tillandsia fog oases in the Atacama, Chile.

Remote Sensing-Based Detection and Spatial Pattern Analysis for Geo-Ecological Niche Modeling of Tillandsia SPP. In the Atacama, Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Wolf, N.; Siegmund, A.; del Río, C.; Osses, P.; García, J. L.

2016-06-01

In the coastal Atacama Desert in Northern Chile plant growth is constrained to so-called `fog oases' dominated by monospecific stands of the genus Tillandsia. Adapted to the hyperarid environmental conditions, these plants specialize on the foliar uptake of fog as main water and nutrient source. It is this characteristic that leads to distinctive macro- and micro-scale distribution patterns, reflecting complex geo-ecological gradients, mainly affected by the spatiotemporal occurrence of coastal fog respectively the South Pacific Stratocumulus clouds reaching inlands. The current work employs remote sensing, machine learning and spatial pattern/GIS analysis techniques to acquire detailed information on the presence and state of Tillandsia spp. in the Tarapacá region as a base to better understand the bioclimatic and topographic constraints determining the distribution patterns of Tillandsia spp. Spatial and spectral predictors extracted from WorldView-3 satellite data are used to map present Tillandsia vegetation in the Tarapaca region. Regression models on Vegetation Cover Fraction (VCF) are generated combining satellite-based as well as topographic variables and using aggregated high spatial resolution information on vegetation cover derived from UAV flight campaigns as a reference. The results are a first step towards mapping and modelling the topographic as well as bioclimatic factors explaining the spatial distribution patterns of Tillandsia fog oases in the Atacama, Chile.

Species distribution model transferability and model grain size - finer may not always be better.

Science.gov (United States)

Manzoor, Syed Amir; Griffiths, Geoffrey; Lukac, Martin

2018-05-08

Species distribution models have been used to predict the distribution of invasive species for conservation planning. Understanding spatial transferability of niche predictions is critical to promote species-habitat conservation and forecasting areas vulnerable to invasion. Grain size of predictor variables is an important factor affecting the accuracy and transferability of species distribution models. Choice of grain size is often dependent on the type of predictor variables used and the selection of predictors sometimes rely on data availability. This study employed the MAXENT species distribution model to investigate the effect of the grain size on model transferability for an invasive plant species. We modelled the distribution of Rhododendron ponticum in Wales, U.K. and tested model performance and transferability by varying grain size (50 m, 300 m, and 1 km). MAXENT-based models are sensitive to grain size and selection of variables. We found that over-reliance on the commonly used bioclimatic variables may lead to less accurate models as it often compromises the finer grain size of biophysical variables which may be more important determinants of species distribution at small spatial scales. Model accuracy is likely to increase with decreasing grain size. However, successful model transferability may require optimization of model grain size.

Climate constraints for siberian moth distribution in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Yuri Baranchikov; Nadezda Tschebakova; Elena Parfenova; Natalia. Kirichenko

2010-01-01

A simplistic bioclimatic model of the Siberian moth Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschtvrk. (Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae) is based on the moth's basic biological requirements, expressed through summer thermal conditions...

Global thermal niche models of two European grasses show high invasion risks in Antarctica.

Science.gov (United States)

Pertierra, Luis R; Aragón, Pedro; Shaw, Justine D; Bergstrom, Dana M; Terauds, Aleks; Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Ángel

2017-07-01

The two non-native grasses that have established long-term populations in Antarctica (Poa pratensis and Poa annua) were studied from a global multidimensional thermal niche perspective to address the biological invasion risk to Antarctica. These two species exhibit contrasting introduction histories and reproductive strategies and represent two referential case studies of biological invasion processes. We used a multistep process with a range of species distribution modelling techniques (ecological niche factor analysis, multidimensional envelopes, distance/entropy algorithms) together with a suite of thermoclimatic variables, to characterize the potential ranges of these species. Their native bioclimatic thermal envelopes in Eurasia, together with the different naturalized populations across continents, were compared next. The potential niche of P. pratensis was wider at the cold extremes; however, P. annua life history attributes enable it to be a more successful colonizer. We observe that particularly cold summers are a key aspect of the unique Antarctic environment. In consequence, ruderals such as P. annua can quickly expand under such harsh conditions, whereas the more stress-tolerant P. pratensis endures and persist through steady growth. Compiled data on human pressure at the Antarctic Peninsula allowed us to provide site-specific biosecurity risk indicators. We conclude that several areas across the region are vulnerable to invasions from these and other similar species. This can only be visualized in species distribution models (SDMs) when accounting for founder populations that reveal nonanalogous conditions. Results reinforce the need for strict management practices to minimize introductions. Furthermore, our novel set of temperature-based bioclimatic GIS layers for ice-free terrestrial Antarctica provide a mechanism for regional and global species distribution models to be built for other potentially invasive species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact Assessment of Ecosystem Influenced by Changing Global Climate and its National Management Practices II - Focusing on me bioclimatic model development of the forest -

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeon, S.W.; Park, Y.H; Chung, W.C.; Hideo, H.; Kiyoshi, T. [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

2001-12-01

In order to assess the influences from climate change, lots of studies have been conducted in Asia/Pacific region recently. The analyzed contents in these studies have a wide range of uncertainty even though the results were limited to the direct influences. While the geographical resolutions of various data used in the model are important factors, integration and expansion of the basic physical and biological reactions is another problem. The results from the previous researches suggest that there will be some problems, which are not to reflect the climate change correctly due to the regional small scale and various utilization of land, if data of the existing large-scale influence model is applied to Korea as it is. This study adopts data of 5 large-scale GCM (Global Circulation Model) in order to find the special climate change pattern and estimates the influences from climate change based on the pattern. In the interpretation of the results from this study, therefore, it is necessary to apply the method, which simultaneously analyzes averages and ranges of the estimated influences by 5 GCM, when forecasting influences by scenarios in 2003, the third year of this study. On considering this background, even though the averages and transition ranges of GCM data in this study provide many suggestions for estimating the influences ranges of forest, their application should be conducted after the serious examination because they do not perfectly reflect the regional microclimate. 108 refs., 56 figs., 24 tabs.

Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the order lagomorpha.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katie Leach

Full Text Available Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs have been used widely to project changes in species' bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed 'modellable' within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species. Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov's Pika (Ochotona koslowi. Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of

Presence and Potential Distribution of Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Slovenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Kalan, Katja; Ivovic, Vladimir; Glasnovic, Peter; Buzan, Elena

2017-11-07

In Slovenia, two invasive mosquito species are present, Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1895) (Diptera: Culicidae) and Aedes japonicus (Theobald, 1901) (Diptera: Culicidae). In this study, we examined their actual distribution and suitable habitats for new colonizations. Data from survey of species presence in 2013 and 2015, bioclimatic variables and altitude were used for the construction of predictive maps. We produced various models in Maxent software and tested two bioclimatic variable sets, WorldClim and CHELSA. For the variable selection of A. albopictus modeling we used statistical and expert knowledge-based approach, whereas for A. j. japonicus we used only a statistically based approach. The best performing models for both species were chosen according to AIC score-based evaluation. In 2 yr of sampling, A. albopictus was largely confined to the western half of Slovenia, whereas A. j. japonicus spread significantly and can be considered as an established species in a large part of the country. Comparison of models with WorldClim and CHELSA variables for both species showed models with CHELSA variables as a better tool for prediction. Finally, we validated the models performance in predicting distribution of species according to collected field data. Our study confirms that both species are co-occurring and are sympatric in a large part of the country area. The tested models could be used for future prevention of invasive mosquitoes spreading in other countries with similar bioclimatic conditions. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Assessment of the climatic potential for tourism in Iran through biometeorology clustering

Science.gov (United States)

Roshan, Gholamreza; Yousefi, Robabe; Błażejczyk, Krzysztof

2017-10-01

This study presents a spatiotemporal analysis of bioclimatic comfort conditions for Iran using mean daily meteorological data from 1995 to 2014, analyzed through Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) index and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) indices, and bioclimatic clustering. The results of this study demonstrate that due to the climate variability across Iran during the year, there is at any point in time a location with climatic condition suitable for tourism. Mean values demonstrate maxima in bioclimatic comfort indices for the country in late winter and spring and minima for summer. Seven statistically significant clusters in bioclimatic indices were identified. Comparing these with clustering performed on PET and UTCI, the maximum overlaps between the two indices. In the following, the outputs of this research showed that most appropriate bioclimatic clustering for Iran includes seven clusters. These clustering locations according to climatic suitability for tourism provide a valuable contribution to tourism management in the country, particularly through marketing destinations to maximize tourist flow.

Assessment of the climatic potential for tourism in Iran through biometeorology clustering.

Science.gov (United States)

Roshan, Gholamreza; Yousefi, Robabe; Błażejczyk, Krzysztof

2018-04-01

This study presents a spatiotemporal analysis of bioclimatic comfort conditions for Iran using mean daily meteorological data from 1995 to 2014, analyzed through Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) index and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) indices, and bioclimatic clustering. The results of this study demonstrate that due to the climate variability across Iran during the year, there is at any point in time a location with climatic condition suitable for tourism. Mean values demonstrate maxima in bioclimatic comfort indices for the country in late winter and spring and minima for summer. Seven statistically significant clusters in bioclimatic indices were identified. Comparing these with clustering performed on PET and UTCI, the maximum overlaps between the two indices. In the following, the outputs of this research showed that most appropriate bioclimatic clustering for Iran includes seven clusters. These clustering locations according to climatic suitability for tourism provide a valuable contribution to tourism management in the country, particularly through marketing destinations to maximize tourist flow.

Using environmental niche modeling to find suitable habitats for the Hard-ground Barasingha in Madhya Pradesh, India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. P. Singh

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The subspecies of Swamp Deer, the Hard-ground Barasingha (Rucervus duvaucelii branderi Pocock, is presently found only in Kanha Tiger Reserve (KTR in Madhya Pradesh, India. This subspecies is highly vulnerable to extinction, and reintroduction in suitable sites is the need of the hour.  Environmental niche models (GARP, SVM, ED, CSM aimed at providing a detailed prediction of species distribution by relating presence of species to 19 bioclimatic indices were developed, using swamp deer occurrence records in KTR. The predictions were appropriately weighted with the prevailing LU/LC classes to identify suitable habitats in Madhya Pradesh, India. The result shows that the southern region of Madhya Pradesh is suitable for the sustenance of Barasingha with varying degrees of habitability. Vicarious validation shows that most of these forest areas were the same as that of historical records dating back to 50 years. However, land use maps can help identify areas where this subspecies can be reintroduced. 

Large Scale Relationship between Aquatic Insect Traits and Climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhowmik, Avit Kumar; Schäfer, Ralf B

2015-01-01

Climate is the predominant environmental driver of freshwater assemblage pattern on large spatial scales, and traits of freshwater organisms have shown considerable potential to identify impacts of climate change. Although several studies suggest traits that may indicate vulnerability to climate change, the empirical relationship between freshwater assemblage trait composition and climate has been rarely examined on large scales. We compared the responses of the assumed climate-associated traits from six grouping features to 35 bioclimatic indices (~18 km resolution) for five insect orders (Diptera, Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera and Trichoptera), evaluated their potential for changing distribution pattern under future climate change and identified the most influential bioclimatic indices. The data comprised 782 species and 395 genera sampled in 4,752 stream sites during 2006 and 2007 in Germany (~357,000 km² spatial extent). We quantified the variability and spatial autocorrelation in the traits and orders that are associated with the combined and individual bioclimatic indices. Traits of temperature preference grouping feature that are the products of several other underlying climate-associated traits, and the insect order Ephemeroptera exhibited the strongest response to the bioclimatic indices as well as the highest potential for changing distribution pattern. Regarding individual traits, insects in general and ephemeropterans preferring very cold temperature showed the highest response, and the insects preferring cold and trichopterans preferring moderate temperature showed the highest potential for changing distribution. We showed that the seasonal radiation and moisture are the most influential bioclimatic aspects, and thus changes in these aspects may affect the most responsive traits and orders and drive a change in their spatial distribution pattern. Our findings support the development of trait-based metrics to predict and detect climate

Trait-based representation of hydrological functional properties of plants in weather and ecosystem models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ashley M. Matheny

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Land surface models and dynamic global vegetation models typically represent vegetation through coarse plant functional type groupings based on leaf form, phenology, and bioclimatic limits. Although these groupings were both feasible and functional for early model generations, in light of the pace at which our knowledge of functional ecology, ecosystem demographics, and vegetation-climate feedbacks has advanced and the ever growing demand for enhanced model performance, these groupings have become antiquated and are identified as a key source of model uncertainty. The newest wave of model development is centered on shifting the vegetation paradigm away from plant functional types (PFTs and towards flexible trait-based representations. These models seek to improve errors in ecosystem fluxes that result from information loss due to over-aggregation of dissimilar species into the same functional class. We advocate the importance of the inclusion of plant hydraulic trait representation within the new paradigm through a framework of the whole-plant hydraulic strategy. Plant hydraulic strategy is known to play a critical role in the regulation of stomatal conductance and thus transpiration and latent heat flux. It is typical that coexisting plants employ opposing hydraulic strategies, and therefore have disparate patterns of water acquisition and use. Hydraulic traits are deterministic of drought resilience, response to disturbance, and other demographic processes. The addition of plant hydraulic properties in models may not only improve the simulation of carbon and water fluxes but also vegetation population distributions.

Selected sports talent development models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michal Vičar

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Sports talent in the Czech Republic is generally viewed as a static, stable phenomena. It stands in contrast with widespread praxis carried out in Anglo-Saxon countries that emphasise its fluctuant nature. This is reflected in the current models describing its development. Objectives: The aim is to introduce current models of talent development in sport. Methods: Comparison and analysing of the following models: Balyi - Long term athlete development model, Côté - Developmental model of sport participation, Csikszentmihalyi - The flow model of optimal expertise, Bailey and Morley - Model of talent development. Conclusion: Current models of sport talent development approach talent as dynamic phenomenon, varying in time. They are based in particular on the work of Simonton and his Emergenic and epigenic model and of Gagné and his Differentiated model of giftedness and talent. Balyi's model is characterised by its applicability and impications for practice. Côté's model highlights the role of family and deliberate play. Both models describe periodization of talent development. Csikszentmihalyi's flow model explains how the athlete acquires experience and develops during puberty based on the structure of attention and flow experience. Bailey and Morley's model accents the situational approach to talent and development of skills facilitating its growth.

ENTERPRISES DEVELOPMENT: MANAGEMENT MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lina Shenderivska

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The paper’s purpose is to provide recommendations for the effective managing the companies’ development taking into account the sectoral key elements’ transformation. Methodology. The enterprise profits’ econometric simulation is conducted to determine the most significant factors influencing their development. According to the model testing result, their multicollinearity was revealed. To get rid of the multicollinearity phenomenon from the profit models, isolated regressors are excluded, namely, return on assets, material returns, return on equity. To obtain qualitative models with a small error of model parameters estimation and, accordingly, high reliability of the conclusion about the interrelation between the factors of the model and the resulting feature, factors in the income model that are not closely interconnected, that is, not multicollinear, are included. Determination coefficients R2 and F-criterion were calculated for model quality checking. The modern printing enterprises of Ukraine key elements, connected with integration into the global information space, are analysed. Results. The interrelation between a company’s development and earning capacity is identified in the study. The profit importance as the main source for enterprise financing is substantiated. Factors that have the greatest impact on the enterprises’ development are labour productivity, financial autonomy, working capital turnover, and the character of their influence is most adequately reflected by the power model. Peculiarities of the enterprises’ activity include increased competition at the inter-branch level, poorly developed industrial relations, and the own sources of financing activities shortage. Practical implications. Based on information on the most significant developmental impact factors, directions for perspective enterprises development for their competitiveness increase are proposed: diversification based on the activity expansion

Inferential monitoring of global change impact on biodiversity through remote sensing and species distribution modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Sangermano, Florencia

2009-12-01

The world is suffering from rapid changes in both climate and land cover which are the main factors affecting global biodiversity. These changes may affect ecosystems by altering species distributions, population sizes, and community compositions, which emphasizes the need for a rapid assessment of biodiversity status for conservation and management purposes. Current approaches on monitoring biodiversity rely mainly on long term observations of predetermined sites, which require large amounts of time, money and personnel to be executed. In order to overcome problems associated with current field monitoring methods, the main objective of this dissertation is the development of framework for inferential monitoring of the impact of global change on biodiversity based on remotely sensed data coupled with species distribution modeling techniques. Several research pieces were performed independently in order to fulfill this goal. First, species distribution modeling was used to identify the ranges of 6362 birds, mammals and amphibians in South America. Chapter 1 compares the power of different presence-only species distribution methods for modeling distributions of species with different response curves to environmental gradients and sample sizes. It was found that there is large variability in the power of the methods for modeling habitat suitability and species ranges, showing the importance of performing, when possible, a preliminary gradient analysis of the species distribution before selecting the method to be used. Chapter 2 presents a new methodology for the redefinition of species range polygons. Using a method capable of establishing the uncertainty in the definition of existing range polygons, the automated procedure identifies the relative importance of bioclimatic variables for the species, predicts their ranges and generates a quality assessment report to explore prediction errors. Analysis using independent validation data shows the power of this

Development of solar energy education IASEE-Argentina, Arquisur and Alfa-built

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schiller, S. de; Evans, J.M.

1997-01-01

Three educational experiences are presented in this paper on the development of national and regional networks to incorporate renewable energy in curricular programmes. IASEE-Argentina, established in 1990 as the National Section of IASEE, the International Association for Solar Energy Education, was designated in 1993 as the Education Working Group of ASADES, the Argentine Association of Solar Energy. It holds annual meetings to coincide with the ASADES conference. Arquisur is a regional network established by Architectural Faculties of State Universities within the Mercosur Region, covering Argentina, southern Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, to promote exchange and development between the 19 faculties involved. A Working Group set up by Arquisur with members from four countries developed the programme for short post-graduate courses on bioclimatic design and rational energy use in buildings, which has been given in Argentina and Uruguay. Alfa-Built, a project supported by the European Union for promoting academic exchange in the field of energy efficient building is also introduced. This paper presents the development and initial results of these educational experiences. (author)

Nestedness in assemblages of helminth parasites of bats: a function of geography, environment, or host nestedness?

Science.gov (United States)

Warburton, Elizabeth M; Van Der Mescht, Luther; Khokhlova, Irina S; Krasnov, Boris R; Vonhof, Maarten J

2018-05-01

Nested subsets occur in ecological communities when species-poor communities are subsets of larger, species-rich communities. Understanding this pattern can help elucidate species colonization abilities, extinction risks, and general structuring of biological communities. Here, we evaluate nestedness in a poorly studied host-parasite system, bats and their helminths, across the Japanese archipelago and within its different bioclimatic regions. We hypothesized that (1) if helminth communities are nested across geographic sites at the level of the archipelago, then broad-scale processes, like colonization-extinction dynamics, mainly structure parasite assemblages; (2) if helminth communities are nested across geographic sites at the level of the bioclimatic region, then fine-scale environmental variation plays a significant role in species nestedness; (3) if helminth community nestedness mirrors host species nestedness, then communities are nested because the habitats they occupy are nested; and (4) if nestedness does not occur or if it is not correlated with any geographical or host data, then passive sampling could be responsible for the patterns of parasite assemblage in our sample. We found that helminth communities were nested across host species throughout the archipelago but, when considering each bioclimatic region, helminths in only one region were significantly more nested than the null model. Helminth communities were also nested across sites within all four bioclimatic regions. These results suggest that helminths form nested subsets across the archipelago due to broad-scale processes that reflect the overall lineages of their mammalian hosts; however, at the regional scale, environmental processes related to nestedness of their habitats drive parasite community nestedness.

Developing mathematical modelling competence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blomhøj, Morten; Jensen, Tomas Højgaard

2003-01-01

In this paper we introduce the concept of mathematical modelling competence, by which we mean being able to carry through a whole mathematical modelling process in a certain context. Analysing the structure of this process, six sub-competences are identified. Mathematical modelling competence...... cannot be reduced to these six sub-competences, but they are necessary elements in the development of mathematical modelling competence. Experience from the development of a modelling course is used to illustrate how the different nature of the sub-competences can be used as a tool for finding...... the balance between different kinds of activities in a particular educational setting. Obstacles of social, cognitive and affective nature for the students' development of mathematical modelling competence are reported and discussed in relation to the sub-competences....

Equilibrium of global amphibian species distributions with climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Munguí­a, Mariana; Rahbek, Carsten; Rangel, Thiago F.

2012-01-01

A common assumption in bioclimatic envelope modeling is that species distributions are in equilibrium with contemporary climate. A number of studies have measured departures from equilibrium in species distributions in particular regions, but such investigations were never carried out for a compl...

Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Garcia, Raquel A.; Burgess, Neil David; Cabeza, Mar

2012-01-01

Africa is predicted to be highly vulnerable to 21st century climatic changes. Assessing the impacts of these changes on Africa's biodiversity is, however, plagued by uncertainties, and markedly different results can be obtained from alternative bioclimatic envelope models or future climate...

Econometric models for biohydrogen development.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Duu-Hwa; Lee, Duu-Jong; Veziroglu, Ayfer

2011-09-01

Biohydrogen is considered as an attractive clean energy source due to its high energy content and environmental-friendly conversion. Analyzing various economic scenarios can help decision makers to optimize development strategies for the biohydrogen sector. This study surveys econometric models of biohydrogen development, including input-out models, life-cycle assessment approach, computable general equilibrium models, linear programming models and impact pathway approach. Fundamentals of each model were briefly reviewed to highlight their advantages and disadvantages. The input-output model and the simplified economic input-output life-cycle assessment model proved most suitable for economic analysis of biohydrogen energy development. A sample analysis using input-output model for forecasting biohydrogen development in the United States is given. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Energy efficiency in the Hellenic building sector: An assessment of the restrictions and perspectives of the market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karkanias, C.; Boemi, S.N.; Papadopoulos, A.M.; Tsoutsos, T.D.; Karagiannidis, A.

2010-01-01

The significance of bioclimatic architecture has become widely accepted since the 1970s and the implementation of its principles in practice is a key factor in order to achieve energy efficiency in the building sector. The way, however, from scientific acceptance to commercial utilization is not a straightforward one. This paper deals with the notion of bioclimatic architecture in buildings and investigates the aspects of this concept in Hellas. A sample of university researchers, building contractors and members of public organisations was interviewed using a standardised set of guidelines. The barriers to promoting bioclimatic design, role of the local government in the adoption process, level of environmental culture as well as perspectives of this concept in Hellas were the key areas of discussion in each of the interviews. The results from the data analysis reveal insufficient economic incentives, a lack in technical information as well as a lack in specific environmental policies that would foster the propagation of bioclimatic architecture.

Modelling energy systems for developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Urban, F.; Benders, R.M.J.; Moll, H.C.

2007-01-01

Developing countries' energy use is rapidly increasing, which affects global climate change and global and regional energy settings. Energy models are helpful for exploring the future of developing and industrialised countries. However, energy systems of developing countries differ from those of industrialised countries, which has consequences for energy modelling. New requirements need to be met by present-day energy models to adequately explore the future of developing countries' energy systems. This paper aims to assess if the main characteristics of developing countries are adequately incorporated in present-day energy models. We first discuss these main characteristics, focusing particularly on developing Asia, and then present a model comparison of 12 selected energy models to test their suitability for developing countries. We conclude that many models are biased towards industrialised countries, neglecting main characteristics of developing countries, e.g. the informal economy, supply shortages, poor performance of the power sector, structural economic change, electrification, traditional bio-fuels, urban-rural divide. To more adequately address the energy systems of developing countries, energy models have to be adjusted and new models have to be built. We therefore indicate how to improve energy models for increasing their suitability for developing countries and give advice on modelling techniques and data requirements

Patterns of adaptive trait evolution across the North American Asclepias

OpenAIRE

Rosa, Raffica La

2016-01-01

We conducted analyses using an Asclepias phylogeny constructed by Fishbein et al. (2011), floral traits measured from pickled specimens, and bioclimatic data for 117 species. Bioclimatic data was extracted by combining WorldClim data and occurrence data of individual specimens collected by iDigBio, GBIF, and SEINet.

Selected sports talent development models

OpenAIRE

Michal Vičar

2017-01-01

Background: Sports talent in the Czech Republic is generally viewed as a static, stable phenomena. It stands in contrast with widespread praxis carried out in Anglo-Saxon countries that emphasise its fluctuant nature. This is reflected in the current models describing its development. Objectives: The aim is to introduce current models of talent development in sport. Methods: Comparison and analysing of the following models: Balyi - Long term athlete development model, Côté - Developmen...

The human heat balance in the city of Novi Sad (Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krajić Aleksandar

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This analysis is based on the human heat balance according to the bioclimatic man-environment heat exchange model created by Krzysztof Błażejczyk. The final result of the human heat balance model points to biothermal weather situations for the outdoor recreational needs. In this analysis, middles daily meteorological data (of climatological station of Novi Sad were used for two extreme months, January and July. In this work, it is analyzed two periods, the first is for 1992-2010. and the second is for year 2010. The aim is to show how weather can be evaluated for recreational needs which the health resource of Novi Sad and to point out the shortcomings when it comes to multi-year analysis. The objective of this article has been to present a bioclimatic analysis of city Novi Sad and how weather variables come together in order to give a climate meaning on human organism.

Advanced Mirror & Modelling Technology Development

Science.gov (United States)

Effinger, Michael; Stahl, H. Philip; Abplanalp, Laura; Maffett, Steven; Egerman, Robert; Eng, Ron; Arnold, William; Mosier, Gary; Blaurock, Carl

2014-01-01

The 2020 Decadal technology survey is starting in 2018. Technology on the shelf at that time will help guide selection to future low risk and low cost missions. The Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) team has identified development priorities based on science goals and engineering requirements for Ultraviolet Optical near-Infrared (UVOIR) missions in order to contribute to the selection process. One key development identified was lightweight mirror fabrication and testing. A monolithic, stacked, deep core mirror was fused and replicated twice to achieve the desired radius of curvature. It was subsequently successfully polished and tested. A recently awarded second phase to the AMTD project will develop larger mirrors to demonstrate the lateral scaling of the deep core mirror technology. Another key development was rapid modeling for the mirror. One model focused on generating optical and structural model results in minutes instead of months. Many variables could be accounted for regarding the core, face plate and back structure details. A portion of a spacecraft model was also developed. The spacecraft model incorporated direct integration to transform optical path difference to Point Spread Function (PSF) and between PSF to modulation transfer function. The second phase to the project will take the results of the rapid mirror modeler and integrate them into the rapid spacecraft modeler.

The mountain Cer: Potentials for tourism development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grčić Mirko D.

2003-01-01

Full Text Available In northwest of Serbia in the meridians directions an elongated mountain range of Cer with Iverak and Vlašić stretches itself. On the north it goes down to Mačva and Posavina, on the west to Podrinje, on the east to the valley of Kolubara, on the south to the basins and valleys of Jadar and upper Kolubara, which separate it from the mountains of Valjevo and Podrinje area. Cer mountain offers extremely good condition for development of eco-tourism. The variety of relief with gorgeous see-sites, natural rarities, convenient bio-climatic conditions, significant water resources, forest complexes, medieval fortresses, cultural-historic monuments, richness of flora and fauna, preserved rural environment, traditions and customs of local population, were all neglected as strategic factors in the development of tourism. This mountain’s potentials are quite satisfactory for the needs of eco-tourism, similar to the National Park of Fruška Gora, but it has lacked an adequate ecotourist strategy so far. This study aims to pointing to the potential and possibilities of ecotourist valorization of this mountain.

Numerical Analysis of Thermal Comfort at Urban Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Papakonstantinou, K.; Belias, C.

2009-08-01

The present paper refers to the numerical simulation of air velocity at open air spaces and the conducting thermal comfort after the evaluation of the examined space using CFD methods, taking into account bioclimatic principles at the architectural design. More specially, the paper draws attention to the physical procedures governing air movement at an open environment area in Athens (athletic park), named "Serafeio Athletic and Cultural Centre," trying to form them in such way that will lead to the thermal comfort of the area's visitors. The study presents a mathematical model, implemented in a general computer code that can provide detailed information on velocity, prevailing in three-dimensional spaces of any geometrical complexity. Turbulent flow is simulated and buoyancy effects are taken into account. This modelling procedure is intended to contribute to the effort towards designing open areas, such as parks, squares or outdoor building environments, using thermal comfort criteria at the bioclimatic design. A computer model of this kind will provide the architects or the environmental engineers with powerful and economical means of evaluating alternative spaces' designs.

Numerical Analysis of Thermal Comfort at Open Air Spaces

Science.gov (United States)

Papakonstantinou, K.; Belias, C.; Pantos-Kikkos, S.; Assana, A.

2008-09-01

The present paper refers to the numerical simulation of air velocity at open air spaces and the conducting thermal comfort after the evaluation of the examined space using CFD methods, taking into account bioclimatic principles at the architectural design. More specially, the paper draws attention to the physical procedures governing air movement at an open environment area in Athens (urban park), named "Attiko Alsos," trying to form them in such way that will lead to the thermal comfort of the area's visitors. The study presents a mathematical model, implemented in a general computer code that can provide detailed information on velocity, prevailing in three-dimensional spaces of any geometrical complexity. Turbulent flow is simulated and buoyancy effects are taken into account. This modelling procedure is intended to contribute to the effort towards designing open areas, such as parks, squares or outdoor building environments, using thermal comfort criteria at the bioclimatic design. A computer model of this kind will provide the architects or the environmental engineers with powerful and economical means of evaluating alternative spaces' designs.

Approaches to predicting potential impacts of climate change on forest disease: an example with Armillaria root disease

Science.gov (United States)

Ned B. Klopfenstein; Mee-Sook Kim; John W. Hanna; Bryce A. Richardson; John E. Lundquist

2009-01-01

Predicting climate change influences on forest diseases will foster forest management practices that minimize adverse impacts of diseases. Precise locations of accurately identified pathogens and hosts must be documented and spatially referenced to determine which climatic factors influence species distribution. With this information, bioclimatic models can predict the...

Stream isotherm shifts from climate change and implications for distributions of ectothermic organisms

Science.gov (United States)

Daniel J. Isaak; Bruce E. Rieman

2013-01-01

Stream ecosystems are especially vulnerable to climate warming because most aquatic organisms are ectothermic and live in dendritic networks that are easily fragmented. Many bioclimatic models predict significant range contractions in stream biotas, but subsequent biological assessments have rarely been done to determine the accuracy of these predictions. Assessments...

Application of General Circulation Models to Assess the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution and Relative Abundance of Melanoplus sanguinipes (Fabricius (Orthoptera: Acrididae in North America

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Olfert

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Climate is the dominant factor determining the distribution and abundance of most insect species. In recent years, the issue of climatic changes caused by human activities and the effects on agriculture has raised concern. General circulation model scenarios were applied to a bioclimatic model of Melanoplus sanguinipes to assess the potential impact of global warming on its distribution and relative abundance. Native to North America and widely distributed, M. sanguinipes is one of the grasshopper species of the continent most responsible for economic damage to grain, oilseed, pulse, and forage crops. Compared to predicted range and distribution under current climate conditions, model results indicated that M. sanguinipes would have increased range and relative abundance under the three general circulation model scenarios in more northern regions of North America. Conversely, model output predicted that the range of this crop pest could contract in regions where climate conditions became limiting.

Comparison of UTCI to selected thermal indices.

Science.gov (United States)

Blazejczyk, Krzysztof; Epstein, Yoram; Jendritzky, Gerd; Staiger, Henning; Tinz, Birger

2012-05-01

Over the past century more than 100 indices have been developed and used to assess bioclimatic conditions for human beings. The majority of these indices are used sporadically or for specific purposes. Some are based on generalized results of measurements (wind chill, cooling power, wet bulb temperature) and some on the empirically observed reactions of the human body to thermal stress (physiological strain, effective temperature). Those indices that are based on human heat balance considerations are referred to as "rational indices". Several simple human heat balance models are known and are used in research and practice. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the newly developed Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), and some of the more prevalent thermal indices. The analysis is based on three groups of data: global data-set, synoptic datasets from Europe, and local scale data from special measurement campaigns of COST Action 730. We found the present indices to express bioclimatic conditions reasonably only under specific meteorological situations, while the UTCI represents specific climates, weather, and locations much better. Furthermore, similar to the human body, the UTCI is very sensitive to changes in ambient stimuli: temperature, solar radiation, wind and humidity. UTCI depicts temporal variability of thermal conditions better than other indices. The UTCI scale is able to express even slight differences in the intensity of meteorological stimuli.

Bioclimatic transport stop: Urban equipment kit; Parada bioclimatica de transporte: Kit de equipamiento urbano

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Machado, Maria V; Barroso, Helen; Bonvino, Michelangelo; Puerta, Marigabriela [Instituto de Investigaciones de la Facultad de Arquitectura de la Universidad del Zulia, Maracaibo (Venezuela)

2000-07-01

Related to the analysis of offer of the urban public transportation, quantity and quality variables are identified, finding in the last one, the related to bus stop designing and equipping. This is, which elements a bus stop has to count with for its insertion in the urban public transportation system: information for the user, bench, trash can, et cetera: generally omitting, relevant aspects that must be considerate in its design and insertion: 1) the urban public transport, 2) the climate variables and 3) renewable energy and environmental preservation. For this presentation, thermal evaluations were made, using a thermal analysis software on prototypes of urban public transportation bus stops existent in Maracaibo (1.6 Mhab.)-Venezuela, city characterized for its high sunning, which duration approximately the same between the day period and night period: and for a marine climate of temperature (27.70 Celsius degrees) and high relative humidity (75%), low precipitation (490 mm) and predominant nor-northeast winds. The year average values of solar radiation corresponds to 5,59 kw/m{sup 2} day for the global radiation, 3.53 kw/m{sup 2} day for the direct radiation (63.1%) and 2.06% kw/m{sup 2} day for the diffuse radiation (36.9%). The maximum average value was obtained in the month of March with 6.4 kw/m{sup 2} day and the minimum on October, 4.7 kw/m{sup 2} day. In the other hand calculations about energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions of the conventional bus stop were made. It is proposed a bus stop design conceptualized as the bioclimatic condenser of the urban equipment. Where beside to comply its clearly determined transportation functions, it can conjunct: 1) complementary urban service activities, depending to its categorization in the urban public transportation system of Maracaibo; 2) orientation; 3) regulator of the urban microclima; and 4) area insertion of these. [Spanish] Dentro de lo que corresponde al analisis de la oferta de transporte publico

Geographic distribution of habitat, development, and population growth rates of the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri, in Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

López-Collado, José; Isabel López-Arroyo, J; Robles-García, Pedro L; Márquez-Santos, Magdalena

2013-01-01

The Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae), is an introduced pest in Mexico and a vector of huanglongbing, a lethal citrus disease. Estimations of the habitat distribution and population growth rates of D. citri are required to establish regional and areawide management strategies and can be used as a pest risk analysis tools. In this study, the habitat distribution of D. citri in Mexico was computed with MaxEnt, an inductive, machine-learning program that uses bioclimatic layers and point location data. Geographic distributions of development and population growth rates were determined by fitting a temperature-dependent, nonlinear model and projecting the rates over the target area, using the annual mean temperature as the predictor variable. The results showed that the most suitable regions for habitat of D. citri comprise the Gulf of Mexico states, Yucatán Peninsula, and areas scattered throughout the Pacific coastal states. Less suitable areas occurred in northern and central states. The most important predictor variables were related to temperature. Development and growth rates had a distribution wider than habitat, reaching some of the northern states of México. Habitat, development, and population growth rates were correlated to each other and with the citrus producing area. These relationships indicated that citrus producing states are within the most suitable regions for the occurrence, development, and population growth of D. citri, therefore increasing the risk of huanglongbing dispersion.

Models for Sustainable Regional Development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

2008-01-01

The chapter presents a model for integrated cross-cultural knowledge building and entrepreneurship. In addtion, narrative and numeric simulations methods are suggested to promote a further development and implementation of the model in China.......The chapter presents a model for integrated cross-cultural knowledge building and entrepreneurship. In addtion, narrative and numeric simulations methods are suggested to promote a further development and implementation of the model in China....

Molecular tools and aspen management: A primer and prospectus

Science.gov (United States)

Karen E. Mock; Bryce A. Richardson; Paul G. Wolf

2013-01-01

Aspen (Populus tremuloides) isaniconic species in North American landscapes, highly valued for recreation, fiber, wildlife and livestock forage, carbon sequestration, biodiversity, and as a fuelbreak. However, there are rising concerns about the ability of aspen to persist in portions of its range, based on bioclimatic modeling, physiological thresholds and mortality...

Strategies for developing competency models.

Science.gov (United States)

Marrelli, Anne F; Tondora, Janis; Hoge, Michael A

2005-01-01

There is an emerging trend within healthcare to introduce competency-based approaches in the training, assessment, and development of the workforce. The trend is evident in various disciplines and specialty areas within the field of behavioral health. This article is designed to inform those efforts by presenting a step-by-step process for developing a competency model. An introductory overview of competencies, competency models, and the legal implications of competency development is followed by a description of the seven steps involved in creating a competency model for a specific function, role, or position. This modeling process is drawn from advanced work on competencies in business and industry.

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS as a methodical approach to the development of design strategies for environmentally sustainable buildings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Hanne Tine Ring

. The research methodology applied in the project combines a literature study of descriptions of methodical approaches and built examples with a sensitivity analysis and a qualitative interview with two designers from a best practice example of a practice that has achieved environmentally sustainable...... architecture, such as: ecological, green, bio-climatic, sustainable, passive, low-energy and environmental architecture. This PhD project sets out to gain a better understanding of environmentally sustainable architecture and the methodical approaches applied in the development of this type of architecture...... an increase in scientific and political awareness, which has lead to an escalation in the number of research publications in the field, as well as, legislative demands for the energy consumption of buildings. The publications in the field refer to many different approaches to environmentally sustainable...

CISBAT 2007 - Design and renovation of building envelopes (bioclimatic architecture)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

This is the second part of the proceedings of the 2007 CISBAT conference on Renewables in a changing climate, held in Lausanne, Switzerland. On the subject of sustainable building envelopes the following oral contributions are summarised: 'Flexible photovoltaics integrated in transparent membrane and pneumatic foil constructions', 'Development of a numerical thermal model for double skin facades', 'Thermal performance analysis for an electrochromic vacuum glazing with low emittance coatings', 'Challenging the public building sector: optimization of energy performance by sustainable strategies', 'Simulation of the thermal performance of a climate adaptive skin', 'Possibilities for upgrading prefabricated concrete building envelopes', 'Experimental study of airflow and heat transfer in a double skin facade with blinds', 'Energy efficiency of a glazing system - Case study: a dynamic glazing and double skin facades - the use of venetian blinds and night ventilation for saving energy on mediterranean climate'. Poster-sessions on the subject include 'Adaptive building envelopes design ', 'GRC facade panels in Brazil', 'Solar absorptance of building opaque surfaces', 'Evaluating the thermal behavior of exterior walls (in residential buildings of hot-dry climate of Yazd)', 'Energy performance of buildings and local energy policy: the case of new residential buildings in Greve in Chianti (Firenze)', 'Space heating and domestic hot water energy demand in high-level-insulation multi-storey buildings in Tuscany (Italy)', 'Is 2000 W society possible, affordable, and socially acceptable for the Vaud existing school building?', 'Development of simplified method for measuring solar shading performance of windows', 'Studies of ecological architecture in China's Loess Plateau region', 'Contemporary mud

RSMASS system model development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marshall, A.C.; Gallup, D.R.

1998-01-01

RSMASS system mass models have been used for more than a decade to make rapid estimates of space reactor power system masses. This paper reviews the evolution of the RSMASS models and summarizes present capabilities. RSMASS has evolved from a simple model used to make rough estimates of space reactor and shield masses to a versatile space reactor power system model. RSMASS uses unique reactor and shield models that permit rapid mass optimization calculations for a variety of space reactor power and propulsion systems. The RSMASS-D upgrade of the original model includes algorithms for the balance of the power system, a number of reactor and shield modeling improvements, and an automatic mass optimization scheme. The RSMASS-D suite of codes cover a very broad range of reactor and power conversion system options as well as propulsion and bimodal reactor systems. Reactor choices include in-core and ex-core thermionic reactors, liquid metal cooled reactors, particle bed reactors, and prismatic configuration reactors. Power conversion options include thermoelectric, thermionic, Stirling, Brayton, and Rankine approaches. Program output includes all major component masses and dimensions, efficiencies, and a description of the design parameters for a mass optimized system. In the past, RSMASS has been used as an aid to identify and select promising concepts for space power applications. The RSMASS modeling approach has been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for guiding optimization of the power system design; consequently, the model is useful during system design and development as well as during the selection process. An improved in-core thermionic reactor system model RSMASS-T is now under development. The current development of the RSMASS-T code represents the next evolutionary stage of the RSMASS models. RSMASS-T includes many modeling improvements and is planned to be more user-friendly. RSMASS-T will be released as a fully documented, certified code at the end of

The development of a sustainable development model framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hannoura, Alim P.; Cothren, Gianna M.; Khairy, Wael M.

2006-01-01

The emergence of the 'sustainable development' concept as a response to the mining of natural resources for the benefit of multinational corporations has advanced the cause of long-term environmental management. A sustainable development model (SDM) framework that is inclusive of the 'whole' natural environment is presented to illustrate the integration of the sustainable development of the 'whole' ecosystem. The ecosystem approach is an inclusive framework that covers the natural environment relevant futures and constraints. These are dynamically interconnected and constitute the determinates of resources development component of the SDM. The second component of the SDM framework is the resources development patterns, i.e., the use of land, water, and atmospheric resources. All of these patterns include practices that utilize environmental resources to achieve a predefined outcome producing waste and by-products that require disposal into the environment. The water quality management practices represent the third component of the framework. These practices are governed by standards, limitations and available disposal means subject to quantity and quality permits. These interconnected standards, practices and permits shape the resulting environmental quality of the ecosystem under consideration. A fourth component, environmental indicators, of the SDM framework provides a measure of the ecosystem productivity and status that may differ based on societal values and culture. The four components of the SDM are interwoven into an outcome assessment process to form the management and feedback models. The concept of Sustainable Development is expressed in the management model as an objective function subject to desired constraints imposing the required bounds for achieving ecosystem sustainability. The development of the objective function and constrains requires monetary values for ecosystem functions, resources development activities and environmental cost. The

GRA model development at Bruce Power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parmar, R.; Ngo, K.; Cruchley, I.

2011-01-01

In 2007, Bruce Power undertook a project, in partnership with AMEC NSS Limited, to develop a Generation Risk Assessment (GRA) model for its Bruce B Nuclear Generating Station. The model is intended to be used as a decision-making tool in support of plant operations. Bruce Power has recognized the strategic importance of GRA in the plant decision-making process and is currently implementing a pilot GRA application. The objective of this paper is to present the scope of the GRA model development project, methodology employed, and the results and path forward for the model implementation at Bruce Power. The required work was split into three phases. Phase 1 involved development of GRA models for the twelve systems most important to electricity production. Ten systems were added to the model during each of the next two phases. The GRA model development process consists of developing system Failure Modes and Effects Analyses (FMEA) to identify the components critical to the plant reliability and determine their impact on electricity production. The FMEAs were then used to develop the logic for system fault tree (FT) GRA models. The models were solved and post-processed to provide model outputs to the plant staff in a user-friendly format. The outputs consisted of the ranking of components based on their production impact expressed in terms of lost megawatt hours (LMWH). Another key model output was the estimation of the predicted Forced Loss Rate (FLR). (author)

Maturity Models Development in IS Research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lasrado, Lester Allan; Vatrapu, Ravi; Andersen, Kim Normann

2015-01-01

Maturity models are widespread in IS research and in particular, IT practitioner communities. However, theoretically sound, methodologically rigorous and empirically validated maturity models are quite rare. This literature review paper focuses on the challenges faced during the development...... literature reveals that researchers have primarily focused on developing new maturity models pertaining to domain-specific problems and/or new enterprise technologies. We find rampant re-use of the design structure of widely adopted models such as Nolan’s Stage of Growth Model, Crosby’s Grid, and Capability...... Maturity Model (CMM). Only recently have there been some research efforts to standardize maturity model development. We also identify three dominant views of maturity models and provide guidelines for various approaches of constructing maturity models with a standard vocabulary. We finally propose using...

Dynamics models and modeling of tree stand development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. V. Rogozin

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Brief analysis of scientific works in Russia and in the CIS over the past 100 years. Logical and mathematical models consider the conceptual and show some of the results of their verification. It was found that the models include different laws and the parameters, the sum of which allows you to divide them into four categories: models of static states, development models, models of care for the natural forest and models of cultivation. Each category has fulfilled and fulfills its tasks in economic management. Thus, the model states in statics (table traverse growth played a prominent role in figuring out what may be the most productive (full stands in different regions of the country. However, they do not answer the question of what the initial states lead to the production of complete stands. In a study of the growth of stands used system analysis, and it is observed dominance of works studying static state, snatched from the biological time. Therefore, the real drama of the growth of stands remained almost unexplored. It is no accident there were «chrono-forestry» «plantation forestry» and even «non-traditional forestry», where there is a strong case of a number of new concepts of development stands. That is quite in keeping with Kuhn (Kuhn, 2009 in the forestry crisis began – there were alternative theories and coexist conflicting scientific schools. To develop models of stand development, it is proposed to use a well-known method of repeated observations within 10–20 years, in conjunction with the explanation of the history of the initial density. It mounted on the basis of studying the dynamics of its indicators: the trunk, crown overlap coefficient, the sum of volumes of all crowns and the relative length of the crown. According to these indicators, the researcher selects natural series of development stands with the same initial density. As a theoretical basis for the models it is possible to postulate the general properties of

Object Oriented Modeling : A method for combining model and software development

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Lelyveld, W.

2010-01-01

When requirements for a new model cannot be met by available modeling software, new software can be developed for a specific model. Methods for the development of both model and software exist, but a method for combined development has not been found. A compatible way of thinking is required to

Probabilistic Model Development

Science.gov (United States)

Adam, James H., Jr.

2010-01-01

Objective: Develop a Probabilistic Model for the Solar Energetic Particle Environment. Develop a tool to provide a reference solar particle radiation environment that: 1) Will not be exceeded at a user-specified confidence level; 2) Will provide reference environments for: a) Peak flux; b) Event-integrated fluence; and c) Mission-integrated fluence. The reference environments will consist of: a) Elemental energy spectra; b) For protons, helium and heavier ions.

Energy and Development. A Modelling Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Ruijven, B.J.

2008-01-01

Rapid economic growth of developing countries like India and China implies that these countries become important actors in the global energy system. Examples of this impact are the present day oil shortages and rapidly increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. Global energy models are used to explore possible future developments of the global energy system and identify policies to prevent potential problems. Such estimations of future energy use in developing countries are very uncertain. Crucial factors in the future energy use of these regions are electrification, urbanisation and income distribution, issues that are generally not included in present day global energy models. Model simulations in this thesis show that current insight in developments in low-income regions lead to a wide range of expected energy use in 2030 of the residential and transport sectors. This is mainly caused by many different model calibration options that result from the limited data availability for model development and calibration. We developed a method to identify the impact of model calibration uncertainty on future projections. We developed a new model for residential energy use in India, in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Science. Experiments with this model show that the impact of electrification and income distribution is less univocal than often assumed. The use of fuelwood, with related health risks, can decrease rapidly if the income of poor groups increases. However, there is a trade off in terms of CO2 emissions because these groups gain access to electricity and the ownership of appliances increases. Another issue is the potential role of new technologies in developing countries: will they use the opportunities of leapfrogging? We explored the potential role of hydrogen, an energy carrier that might play a central role in a sustainable energy system. We found that hydrogen only plays a role before 2050 under very optimistic assumptions. Regional energy

Efficiency of economic development models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oana Camelia Iacob

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The world economy is becoming increasingly integrated. Integrating emerging economies of Asia, such as China and India increase competition on the world stage, putting pressure on the "actors" already existing. These developments have raised questions about the effectiveness of European development model, which focuses on a high level of equity, insurance and social protection. According to analysts, the world today faces three models of economic development with significant weight in the world: the European, American and Asian. This study will focus on analyzing European development model, and a brief comparison with the United States. In addition, this study aims to highlight the relationship between efficiency and social equity that occurs in each submodel in part of the European model, given that social and economic performance in the EU are not homogeneous. To achieve this, it is necessary to analyze different indicators related to social equity and efficiency respectively, to observe the performance of each submodel individually. The article analyzes data to determine submodel performance according to social equity and economic efficiency.

Modeling Energy and Development : An Evaluation of Models and Concepts

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ruijven, Bas van; Urban, Frauke; Benders, René M.J.; Moll, Henri C.; Sluijs, Jeroen P. van der; Vries, Bert de; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

2008-01-01

Most global energy models are developed by institutes from developed countries focusing primarily oil issues that are important in industrialized countries. Evaluation of the results for Asia of the IPCC/SRES models shows that broad concepts of energy and development. the energy ladder and the

Predicting climate change impacts on the distribution of the threatened Garcinia indica in the Western Ghats, India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Malay Pramanik

Full Text Available In recent years, climate change has become a major threat and has been widely documented in the geographic distribution of many plant species. However, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of ecologically vulnerable medicinal species remain largely unknown. The identification of a suitable habitat for a species under climate change scenario is a significant step towards the mitigation of biodiversity decline. The study, therefore, aims to predict the impact of current, and future climatic scenarios on the distribution of the threatened Garcinia indica across the northern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt modelling. The future projections were made for the year 2050 and 2070 with all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs scenario (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 using 56 species occurrence data, and 19 bioclimatic predictors from the BCC-CSM1.1 model of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC 5th assessment. The bioclimatic variables were minimised to a smaller number of variables after a multicollinearity test, and their contributions were assessed using jackknife test. The AUC value of 0.956 ± 0.023 indicates that the model performs with excellent accuracy. The study identified that temperature seasonality (39.5 ± 3.1%, isothermality (19.2 ± 1.6%, and annual precipitation (12.7 ± 1.7% would be the major influencing variables in the current and future distribution. The model predicted 10.50% (19318.7 sq. km of the study area as moderately to very highly suitable, while 82.60% (151904 sq. km of the study area was identified as ‘unsuitable’ or ‘very low suitable’. Our predictions of Climate change impact on habitat suitability suggest that there will be a drastic reduction in the suitability by 5.29% and 5.69% under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Objective and Significance: Primary objective of this study is to identify the potential distribution of medicinally and

Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification

OpenAIRE

Couce, Elena M; Ridgwell, Andy J; Hendy, Erica

2013-01-01

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world’s tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches...

Rectenna thermal model development

Science.gov (United States)

Kadiramangalam, Murall; Alden, Adrian; Speyer, Daniel

1992-01-01

Deploying rectennas in space requires adapting existing designs developed for terrestrial applications to the space environment. One of the major issues in doing so is to understand the thermal performance of existing designs in the space environment. Toward that end, a 3D rectenna thermal model has been developed, which involves analyzing shorted rectenna elements and finite size rectenna element arrays. A shorted rectenna element is a single element whose ends are connected together by a material of negligible thermal resistance. A shorted element is a good approximation to a central element of a large array. This model has been applied to Brown's 2.45 GHz rectenna design. Results indicate that Brown's rectenna requires redesign or some means of enhancing the heat dissipation in order for the diode temperature to be maintained below 200 C above an output power density of 620 W/sq.m. The model developed in this paper is very general and can be used for the analysis and design of any type of rectenna design of any frequency.

China Changes the Development Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grażyna Rzeszotarska

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The last decades of the twentieth century fundamentally changed the situation in the global economy. China's spectacular economic success has increased an interest in this country. The short time in which China moved on from the a poor agricultural country into a global economic power is admirable. China's model combines conflicted elements of different economic systems: the bureaucratic planning, island-capitalism, simple goods production and natural economy. The current development and transformation of the economy have brought about spectacular achievements and successes. However, the "the world's manufacturer" produces goods designed in other countries. In contrast, the modern idea is to build a modern and independent Chinese industry. The possibilities of the current model of economic development based on simple reserves and large statedriven infrastructure projects, which no longer drive the economy to the extent they previously did, dried out. Thus, the "Middle Kingdom" will have to compete against the rest of the world on quality and innovation. Therefore the development of the new model is a prerequisite to ensure progress in the future. Discussion on further development has been expedited in 2011, when it became abundantly clear that the Chinese economy would share the experience of the effects of the global crisis. The Chinese look at the challenges that the economy is facing realistically in thinking about the modern technology which begins to dominate the country. China is determined to become the leading technological superpower of the world. Today, many developing countries are looking towards China watching the development model implemented there with the hope of its adaptation in their economies. However, China is a unique entity. Therefore, it may be that adaptation of the Chinese model of development in other countries is not possible.

Genotyping by Sequencing and Genome–Environment Associations in Wild Common Bean Predict Widespread Divergent Adaptation to Drought

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrés J. Cortés

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Drought will reduce global crop production by >10% in 2050 substantially worsening global malnutrition. Breeding for resistance to drought will require accessing crop genetic diversity found in the wild accessions from the driest high stress ecosystems. Genome–environment associations (GEA in crop wild relatives reveal natural adaptation, and therefore can be used to identify adaptive variation. We explored this approach in the food crop Phaseolus vulgaris L., characterizing 86 geo-referenced wild accessions using genotyping by sequencing (GBS to discover single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs. The wild beans represented Mesoamerica, Guatemala, Colombia, Ecuador/Northern Peru and Andean groupings. We found high polymorphism with a total of 22,845 SNPs across the 86 accessions that confirmed genetic relationships for the groups. As a second objective, we quantified allelic associations with a bioclimatic-based drought index using 10 different statistical models that accounted for population structure. Based on the optimum model, 115 SNPs in 90 regions, widespread in all 11 common bean chromosomes, were associated with the bioclimatic-based drought index. A gene coding for an ankyrin repeat-containing protein and a phototropic-responsive NPH3 gene were identified as potential candidates. Genomic windows of 1 Mb containing associated SNPs had more positive Tajima’s D scores than windows without associated markers. This indicates that adaptation to drought, as estimated by bioclimatic variables, has been under natural divergent selection, suggesting that drought tolerance may be favorable under dry conditions but harmful in humid conditions. Our work exemplifies that genomic signatures of adaptation are useful for germplasm characterization, potentially enhancing future marker-assisted selection and crop improvement.

Place-Based Investment Model of Talent Development: A Proposed Model for Developing and Reinvesting Talents within the Community

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, Kristina Ayers; Seward, Kristen K.

2016-01-01

The place-based investment model (PBIM) of talent development is a programming model for developing talents of high-potential youth in ways that could serve as an investment in the community. In this article, we discuss the PBIM within rural contexts. The model is grounded in three theories--Moon's personal talent development theory, Sternberg's…

Development of vegetation and solar radiation on hillside grounds of the Sierra de Bejar, Salamanca (Spain)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santa Regina Rodríguez, I.

2000-01-01

A detailed study was carried out about the vegetation and solar radiation on hillside grounds of the Sierra de Béjar according to its characteristic orientation and slope for a better exploitation of its ecological resources. Chorologically the area is located in carpetano-ibéico-leonesa province, bejarano-gredense ection, bejarano-tormantino subsector. Its topography presents great contrasts, alternating great ondulations with high slopes. For as, in this area there was a three bioclimatic gronds: supramediterranean, oromediterranean and crioromediterranean [es

Misting-cooling systems for microclimatic control in public space

OpenAIRE

Nunes, Joao; Zoilo, Inaki; Jacinto, Nuno; Nunes, Ana; Torres-Campos, Tiago; Pacheco, Manuel; Fonseca, David

2011-01-01

Misting-cooling systems have been used in outdoor spaces mainly for aesthetic purposes, and punctual cooling achievement. However, they can be highly effective in outdoor spaces’ bioclimatic comfort, in terms of microclimatic control, as an evaporative cooling system. Recent concerns in increasing bioclimatic standards in public outdoor spaces, along with more sustainable practices, gave origin to reasoning where plastic principles are combined with the study of cooling efficacy, in order to ...

Modelling of cardiovascular system: development of a hybrid (numerical-physical) model.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrari, G; Kozarski, M; De Lazzari, C; Górczyńska, K; Mimmo, R; Guaragno, M; Tosti, G; Darowski, M

2003-12-01

Physical models of the circulation are used for research, training and for testing of implantable active and passive circulatory prosthetic and assistance devices. However, in comparison with numerical models, they are rigid and expensive. To overcome these limitations, we have developed a model of the circulation based on the merging of a lumped parameter physical model into a numerical one (producing therefore a hybrid). The physical model is limited to the barest essentials and, in this application, developed to test the principle, it is a windkessel representing the systemic arterial tree. The lumped parameters numerical model was developed in LabVIEW environment and represents pulmonary and systemic circulation (except the systemic arterial tree). Based on the equivalence between hydraulic and electrical circuits, this prototype was developed connecting the numerical model to an electrical circuit--the physical model. This specific solution is valid mainly educationally but permits the development of software and the verification of preliminary results without using cumbersome hydraulic circuits. The interfaces between numerical and electrical circuits are set up by a voltage controlled current generator and a voltage controlled voltage generator. The behavior of the model is analyzed based on the ventricular pressure-volume loops and on the time course of arterial and ventricular pressures and flow in different circulatory conditions. The model can represent hemodynamic relationships in different ventricular and circulatory conditions.

Present, future, and novel bioclimates of the San Francisco, California region

Science.gov (United States)

Torregrosa, Alicia; Taylor, Maxwell D.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2013-01-01

Bioclimates are syntheses of climatic variables into biologically relevant categories that facilitate comparative studies of biotic responses to climate conditions. Isobioclimates, unique combinations of bioclimatic indices (continentality, ombrotype, and thermotype), were constructed for northern California coastal ranges based on the Rivas-Martinez worldwide bioclimatic classification system for the end of the 20th century climatology (1971–2000) and end of the 21st century climatology (2070–2099) using two models, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), under the medium-high A2 emission scenario. The digitally mapped results were used to 1) assess the relative redistribution of isobioclimates and their magnitude of change, 2) quantify the loss of isobioclimates into the future, 3) identify and locate novel isobioclimates projected to appear, and 4) explore compositional change in vegetation types among analog isobioclimate patches. This study used downscaled climate variables to map the isobioclimates at a fine spatial resolution −270 m grid cells. Common to both models of future climate was a large change in thermotype. Changes in ombrotype differed among the two models. The end of 20th century climatology has 83 isobioclimates covering the 63,000 km2 study area. In both future projections 51 of those isobioclimates disappear over 40,000 km2. The ordination of vegetation-bioclimate relationships shows very strong correlation of Rivas-Martinez indices with vegetation distribution and composition. Comparisons of vegetation composition among analog patches suggest that vegetation change will be a local rearrangement of species already in place rather than one requiring long distance dispersal. The digitally mapped results facilitate comparison with other Mediterranean regions. Major remaining challenges include predicting vegetation composition of novel isobioclimates and developing metrics to compare

Present, future, and novel bioclimates of the San Francisco, California region.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alicia Torregrosa

Full Text Available Bioclimates are syntheses of climatic variables into biologically relevant categories that facilitate comparative studies of biotic responses to climate conditions. Isobioclimates, unique combinations of bioclimatic indices (continentality, ombrotype, and thermotype, were constructed for northern California coastal ranges based on the Rivas-Martinez worldwide bioclimatic classification system for the end of the 20(th century climatology (1971-2000 and end of the 21(st century climatology (2070-2099 using two models, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL model and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM, under the medium-high A2 emission scenario. The digitally mapped results were used to 1 assess the relative redistribution of isobioclimates and their magnitude of change, 2 quantify the loss of isobioclimates into the future, 3 identify and locate novel isobioclimates projected to appear, and 4 explore compositional change in vegetation types among analog isobioclimate patches. This study used downscaled climate variables to map the isobioclimates at a fine spatial resolution -270 m grid cells. Common to both models of future climate was a large change in thermotype. Changes in ombrotype differed among the two models. The end of 20(th century climatology has 83 isobioclimates covering the 63,000 km(2 study area. In both future projections 51 of those isobioclimates disappear over 40,000 km(2. The ordination of vegetation-bioclimate relationships shows very strong correlation of Rivas-Martinez indices with vegetation distribution and composition. Comparisons of vegetation composition among analog patches suggest that vegetation change will be a local rearrangement of species already in place rather than one requiring long distance dispersal. The digitally mapped results facilitate comparison with other Mediterranean regions. Major remaining challenges include predicting vegetation composition of novel isobioclimates and developing metrics to

Brookhaven Regional Energy Facility Siting Model (REFS): model development and application

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meier, P.; Hobbs, B.; Ketcham, G.; McCoy, M.; Stern, R.

1979-06-01

A siting methodology developed specifically to bridge the gap between regional-energy-system scenarios and environmental transport models is documented. Development of the model is described in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 described the basic structure of such a model. Additional chapters on model development cover: generation, transmission, demand disaggregation, the interface to other models, computational aspects, the coal sector, water resource considerations, and air quality considerations. These subjects comprise Part I. Part II, Model Applications, covers: analysis of water resource constraints, water resource issues in the New York Power Pool, water resource issues in the New England Power Pool, water resource issues in the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland Power Pool, and a summary of water resource constraint analysis. (MCW)

A Generic Modeling Process to Support Functional Fault Model Development

Science.gov (United States)

Maul, William A.; Hemminger, Joseph A.; Oostdyk, Rebecca; Bis, Rachael A.

2016-01-01

Functional fault models (FFMs) are qualitative representations of a system's failure space that are used to provide a diagnostic of the modeled system. An FFM simulates the failure effect propagation paths within a system between failure modes and observation points. These models contain a significant amount of information about the system including the design, operation and off nominal behavior. The development and verification of the models can be costly in both time and resources. In addition, models depicting similar components can be distinct, both in appearance and function, when created individually, because there are numerous ways of representing the failure space within each component. Generic application of FFMs has the advantages of software code reuse: reduction of time and resources in both development and verification, and a standard set of component models from which future system models can be generated with common appearance and diagnostic performance. This paper outlines the motivation to develop a generic modeling process for FFMs at the component level and the effort to implement that process through modeling conventions and a software tool. The implementation of this generic modeling process within a fault isolation demonstration for NASA's Advanced Ground System Maintenance (AGSM) Integrated Health Management (IHM) project is presented and the impact discussed.

Effects of light and drought stress on germination of Artemisia sieberi ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Preservation and development of plant cover are major factors in the management of range ecosystems. Artemisia sieberi is one of the native dominant species of vast areas in the Irano-Turanian bioclimatic region. This species is very tolerant to drought stress and grazing pressure. Therefore, it can be used to rehabilitate ...

COMPUTATIONAL MODELS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

OpenAIRE

Monendra Grover; Rajesh Kumar; Tapan Kumar Mondal; S. Rajkumar

2011-01-01

Genetic erosion is a serious problem and computational models have been developed to prevent it. The computational modeling in this field not only includes (terrestrial) reserve design, but also decision modeling for related problems such as habitat restoration, marine reserve design, and nonreserve approaches to conservation management. Models have been formulated for evaluating tradeoffs between socioeconomic, biophysical, and spatial criteria in establishing marine reserves. The percolatio...

Risk Zones of Human Leishmaniases in the Western Mediterranean Basin: Correlations between Vector Sand Flies, Bioclimatology and Phytosociology

OpenAIRE

Philippe Rispail; Jacques Dereure; Daniel Jarry

2002-01-01

Correspondence analysis was applied to sand fly sampling in 865 stations from the Western Mediterranean basin. The position of each of 24 species was determined with respect to the bioclimatic belts. Thus, the multidimensional analyses manifest clear correlations between bioclimatic belts and their expression in the area, the phytosociological groupings, and vector species of visceral and cutaneous leishmaniases. The transfer of these data to usual maps allows to delimit the geographical dist...

New droplet model developments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dorso, C.O.; Myers, W.D.; Swiatecki, W.J.; Moeller, P.; Treiner, J.; Weiss, M.S.

1985-09-01

A brief summary is given of three recent contributions to the development of the Droplet Model. The first concerns the electric dipole moment induced in octupole deformed nuclei by the Coulomb redistribution. The second concerns a study of squeezing in nuclei and the third is a study of the improved predictive power of the model when an empirical ''exponential'' term is included. 25 refs., 3 figs

Development of the physical model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Zunqi; Morsy, Samir

2001-01-01

Full text: The Physical Model was developed during Program 93+2 as a technical tool to aid enhanced information analysis and now is an integrated part of the Department's on-going State evaluation process. This paper will describe the concept of the Physical Model, including its objectives, overall structure and the development of indicators with designated strengths, followed by a brief description of using the Physical Model in implementing the enhanced information analysis. The work plan for expansion and update of the Physical Model is also presented at the end of the paper. The development of the Physical Model is an attempt to identify, describe and characterize every known process for carrying out each step necessary for the acquisition of weapons-usable material, i.e., all plausible acquisition paths for highly enriched uranium (HEU) and separated plutonium (Pu). The overall structure of the Physical Model has a multilevel arrangement. It includes at the top level all the main steps (technologies) that may be involved in the nuclear fuel cycle from the source material production up to the acquisition of weapons-usable material, and then beyond the civilian fuel cycle to the development of nuclear explosive devices (weaponization). Each step is logically interconnected with the preceding and/or succeeding steps by nuclear material flows. It contains at its lower levels every known process that is associated with the fuel cycle activities presented at the top level. For example, uranium enrichment is broken down into three branches at the second level, i.e., enrichment of UF 6 , UCl 4 and U-metal respectively; and then further broken down at the third level into nine processes: gaseous diffusion, gas centrifuge, aerodynamic, electromagnetic, molecular laser (MLIS), atomic vapor laser (AVLIS), chemical exchange, ion exchange and plasma. Narratives are presented at each level, beginning with a general process description then proceeding with detailed

Reference model for apparel product development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isabel Cristina Moretti

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper was to develop a reference model for the implementation of the process of product development (PDP for apparel. The tool was developed through an interactive process of comparison between theoretical. Managers in companies and professionals working in this market can utilize the reference model as a source for the organization and improvement of the PDP for apparel and the universities as a reference source for systematized teaching of this process. This model represents the first comprehensive attempt to develop an instrument at a detailed level (macro phases, phases, activities, inputs and outputs at each stage and at the gates to systematize the PDP process for fashion products and to consider its particularities.

A Testbed for Model Development

Science.gov (United States)

Berry, J. A.; Van der Tol, C.; Kornfeld, A.

2014-12-01

Carbon cycle and land-surface models used in global simulations need to be computationally efficient and have a high standard of software engineering. These models also make a number of scaling assumptions to simplify the representation of complex biochemical and structural properties of ecosystems. This makes it difficult to use these models to test new ideas for parameterizations or to evaluate scaling assumptions. The stripped down nature of these models also makes it difficult to "connect" with current disciplinary research which tends to be focused on much more nuanced topics than can be included in the models. In our opinion/experience this indicates the need for another type of model that can more faithfully represent the complexity ecosystems and which has the flexibility to change or interchange parameterizations and to run optimization codes for calibration. We have used the SCOPE (Soil Canopy Observation, Photochemistry and Energy fluxes) model in this way to develop, calibrate, and test parameterizations for solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence, OCS exchange and stomatal parameterizations at the canopy scale. Examples of the data sets and procedures used to develop and test new parameterizations are presented.

METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES FOR MODELING THE RURAL SETTLEMENT DEVELOPMENT

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Gorbenkova Elena Vladimirovna

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Subject: the paper describes the research results on validation of a rural settlement developmental model. The basic methods and approaches for solving the problem of assessment of the urban and rural settlement development efficiency are considered. Research objectives: determination of methodological approaches to modeling and creating a model for the development of rural settlements. Materials and methods: domestic and foreign experience in modeling the territorial development of urban and rural settlements and settlement structures was generalized. The motivation for using the Pentagon-model for solving similar problems was demonstrated. Based on a systematic analysis of existing development models of urban and rural settlements as well as the authors-developed method for assessing the level of agro-towns development, the systems/factors that are necessary for a rural settlement sustainable development are identified. Results: we created the rural development model which consists of five major systems that include critical factors essential for achieving a sustainable development of a settlement system: ecological system, economic system, administrative system, anthropogenic (physical system and social system (supra-structure. The methodological approaches for creating an evaluation model of rural settlements development were revealed; the basic motivating factors that provide interrelations of systems were determined; the critical factors for each subsystem were identified and substantiated. Such an approach was justified by the composition of tasks for territorial planning of the local and state administration levels. The feasibility of applying the basic Pentagon-model, which was successfully used for solving the analogous problems of sustainable development, was shown. Conclusions: the resulting model can be used for identifying and substantiating the critical factors for rural sustainable development and also become the basis of

Beginning SQL Server Modeling Model-driven Application Development in SQL Server

CERN Document Server

Weller, Bart

2010-01-01

Get ready for model-driven application development with SQL Server Modeling! This book covers Microsoft's SQL Server Modeling (formerly known under the code name "Oslo") in detail and contains the information you need to be successful with designing and implementing workflow modeling. Beginning SQL Server Modeling will help you gain a comprehensive understanding of how to apply DSLs and other modeling components in the development of SQL Server implementations. Most importantly, after reading the book and working through the examples, you will have considerable experience using SQL M

Providing the meta-model of development of competency using the meta-ethnography approach: Part 2. Synthesis of the available competency development models

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Shahram Yazdani

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Background and Purpose: ConsideringBackground and Purpose: Considering the importance and necessity of competency-based education at a global level and with respect to globalization and the requirement of minimum competencies in medical fields, medical education communities and organizations worldwide have tried to determine the competencies, present frameworks and education models to respond to be sure of the ability of all graduates. In the literature, we observed numerous competency development models that refer to the same issues with different terminologies. It seems that evaluation and synthesis of all these models can finally result in designing a comprehensive meta-model for competency development.Methods: Meta-ethnography is a useful method for synthesis of qualitative research that is used to develop models that interpret the results in several studies. Considering that the aim of this study is to ultimately provide a competency development meta-model, in the previous section of the study, the literature review was conducted to achieve competency development models. Models obtained through the search were studied in details, and the key concepts of the models and overarching concepts were extracted in this section, models’ concepts were reciprocally translated and the available competency development models were synthesized.Results: A presentation of the competency development meta-model and providing a redefinition of the Dreyfus brothers model.Conclusions: Given the importance of competency-based education at a global level and the need to review curricula and competency-based curriculum design, it is required to provide competency development as well as meta-model to be the basis for curriculum development. As there are a variety of competency development models available, in this study, it was tried to develop the curriculum using them.Keywords: Meta-ethnography, Competency development, Meta-model, Qualitative synthesis

MODELS OF TOURIST DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

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Borma Afrodita

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Third year PhD candidate at the University of Oradea, under the guidance of Professor Mrs. Alina Bădulescu in the doctoral research project entitled: "Doctoral studies and Ph.D. candidates for competitive research on a knowledge based society", a co-financed project by the European Social Fund through the Sectoral Operational Program for Human Resources Development 2007 - 2013, Priority Axis 1. "Education and training in support for growth and development of a knowledge based society" I chose to present this subject in order to demonstrate the connection that exists between tourism and regional development. Having as research topic "Tourism and development in the Euro regional context” I felt it would be appropriate to devote a subchapter in presenting the impact of tourism in regional development. Thus I have analysed a number of specialised papers found at national and international level in order to achieve a synthesis on the approached topic. Authors such as Williams and Shaw (1991, Sharma (2004, Keskin and Cansiz (2010 were concerned with presenting the positive aspects of tourism in regional development. Condes (2004 presents on one hand the secrets regarding success in matter of tourist development, and on the other side he presents the possible risks that follow the development of tourism in a country / region (Condes 2004. Following the gathered information we found that indeed tourism plays an important role in regional development. The used research methodology consisted in using specialised literature in order to identify some models that illustrate the potential success of tourism in regional development. The space-temporal development model of tourism proposed by Opperman (1993, although it was developed at national level represents a useful tool in illustrating the potential success of tourism in regional development. Miossec's model (Sharma 2004:300 describes the structural evolution of touristic regions in

Continuous Competence Development Model for Teacher Teams

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Weitze, Charlotte Lærke

2014-01-01

"This paper presents the development of the IT‐Pedagogical Think Tank for Teacher Teams (ITP4T), a continuous competence development model. The model was co‐designed following a design‐based research approach with teachers from VUC Storstrøm’s (VUC) Global Classroom (GC), an innovative hybrid...... to create their own continuous competence development. This article describes how and why the different components of the model were developed in response to the teachers’ challenges. Such challenges included lack of time, competence and support from the educational organisation to innovate learning design...

Model Driven Development of Data Sensitive Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Petur

2014-01-01

storage systems, where the actual values of the data is not relevant for the behavior of the system. For many systems the values are important. For instance the control flow of the system can be dependent on the input values. We call this type of system data sensitive, as the execution is sensitive...... to the values of variables. This theses strives to improve model-driven development of such data-sensitive systems. This is done by addressing three research questions. In the first we combine state-based modeling and abstract interpretation, in order to ease modeling of data-sensitive systems, while allowing...... efficient model-checking and model-based testing. In the second we develop automatic abstraction learning used together with model learning, in order to allow fully automatic learning of data-sensitive systems to allow learning of larger systems. In the third we develop an approach for modeling and model-based...

A Computational Model of Spatial Development

Science.gov (United States)

Hiraki, Kazuo; Sashima, Akio; Phillips, Steven

Psychological experiments on children's development of spatial knowledge suggest experience at self-locomotion with visual tracking as important factors. Yet, the mechanism underlying development is unknown. We propose a robot that learns to mentally track a target object (i.e., maintaining a representation of an object's position when outside the field-of-view) as a model for spatial development. Mental tracking is considered as prediction of an object's position given the previous environmental state and motor commands, and the current environment state resulting from movement. Following Jordan & Rumelhart's (1992) forward modeling architecture the system consists of two components: an inverse model of sensory input to desired motor commands; and a forward model of motor commands to desired sensory input (goals). The robot was tested on the `three cups' paradigm (where children are required to select the cup containing the hidden object under various movement conditions). Consistent with child development, without the capacity for self-locomotion the robot's errors are self-center based. When given the ability of self-locomotion the robot responds allocentrically.

Biothermal conditions on Mt. Zlatibor based on thermophysiological indices

OpenAIRE

Pecelj Milica; Đorđević Aleksandar; Pecelj Milovan R.; Pecelj-Purković Jelena; Filipović Dejan; Šećerov Velimir

2017-01-01

This paper presents part of the research in the field of human bioclimatology and refers to biothermal conditions in different geographical environments in Serbia: an urban area and a mountain of medium height. The goal of the paper was to show bioclimatic differences during the summer between the city of Belgrade (116 m a.s.l.) and the mountain resort of Zlatibor (1498 m a.s.l.). The basic principle of bioclimatic analysis is the human heat balance between...

Determination of cognitive development: postnonclassical theoretical model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Irina N. Pogozhina

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of this research is to develop a postnonclassical cognitive processes content determination model in which mental processes are considered as open selfdeveloping, self-organizing systems. Three types of systems (dynamic, statistical, developing were analysed and compared on the basis of the description of the external and internal characteristics of causation, types of causal chains (dependent, independent and their interactions, as well as the nature of the relationship between the elements of the system (hard, probabilistic, mixed. Mechanisms of open non-equilibrium nonlinear systems (dissipative and four dissipative structures emergence conditions are described. Determination models of mental and behaviour formation and development that were developed under various theoretical approaches (associationism, behaviorism, gestaltism, psychology of intelligence by Piaget, Vygotsky culture historical approach, activity approach and others are mapped on each other as the models that describe behaviour of the three system types mentioned above. The development models of the mental sphere are shown to be different by the following criteria: 1 allocated determinants amount; 2 presence or absence of the system own activity that results in selecting the model not only external, but also internal determinants; 3 types of causal chains (dependent-independent-blended; 4 types of relationships between the causal chain that ultimately determines the subsequent system determination type as decisive (a tough dynamic pattern or stochastic (statistical regularity. The continuity of postnonclassical, classical and non-classical models of mental development determination are described. The process of gradual refinement, complexity, «absorption» of the mental determination by the latter models is characterized. The human mental can be deemed as the functioning of the open developing non-equilibrium nonlinear system (dissipative. The mental sphere is

Development of a generalized integral jet model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duijm, Nijs Jan; Kessler, A.; Markert, Frank

2017-01-01

Integral type models to describe stationary plumes and jets in cross-flows (wind) have been developed since about 1970. These models are widely used for risk analysis, to describe the consequences of many different scenarios. Alternatively, CFD codes are being applied, but computational requireme......Integral type models to describe stationary plumes and jets in cross-flows (wind) have been developed since about 1970. These models are widely used for risk analysis, to describe the consequences of many different scenarios. Alternatively, CFD codes are being applied, but computational...... requirements still limit the number of scenarios that can be dealt with using CFD only. The integral models, however, are not suited to handle transient releases, such as releases from pressurized equipment, where the initially high release rate decreases rapidly with time. Further, on gas ignition, a second...... model is needed to describe the rapid combustion of the flammable part of the plume (flash fire) and a third model has to be applied for the remaining jet fire. The objective of this paper is to describe the first steps of the development of an integral-type model describing the transient development...

Life cycle assessment of two dwellings: one in Spain, a developed country, and one in Colombia, a country under development.

Science.gov (United States)

Ortiz-Rodríguez, Oscar; Castells, Francesc; Sonnemann, Guido

2010-05-15

The main objective of this paper is to study and quantify the differences in energy consumption and environmental impacts of two dwellings during the full building life cycle: one in Spain, a developed country, and one in Colombia, a country under development. In both scenarios, we assessed the construction, use and end-of-life phases. Results show that the use phase in the Pamplona house (Colombia) represents a lower percentage for all impacts in the total than in the Barcelona house (Spain). The findings of this study showed that the difference in consumption in Colombia and Spanish dwellings analysed is not only due to the variation in results for bio-climatic differences but also because of the consumption habits in each country. The importance of consumption habits of citizens and the need to decouple socio-economic development from energy consumption are sought for achieving sustainability from a life cycle perspective. There is a crucial necessity to provide satisfaction to basic needs and comfort requirements of population with reasonable and sustainable energy consumption. Then, the type of standard dwelling varies substantially depending on the geographic location where it is built. Climate, technological, cultural, socio-economical differences clearly define the standard of a building in any context and in any region. However, the function is always the same, to provide protection and housing for its habitants. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Canadian Whole-Farm Model Holos - Development, Stakeholder Involvement, and Model Application

Science.gov (United States)

Kroebel, R.; Janzen, H.; Beauchemin, K. A.

2017-12-01

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's Holos model, based mostly on emission factors, aims to explore the effect of management on Canadian whole-farm greenhouse gas emissions. The model includes 27 commonly grown annual and perennial crops, summer fallow, grassland, and 8 types of tree plantings, along with beef, dairy, sheep, swine and other livestock or poultry operations. Model outputs encompass net emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O (in CO2 equivalents), calculated for various farm components. Where possible, algorithms are drawn from peer-reviewed publications. For consistency, Holos is aligned with the Canadian sustainability indicator and national greenhouse gas inventory objectives. Although primarily an exploratory tool for research, the model's design makes it accessible and instructive also to agricultural producers, educators, and policy makers. Model development, therefore, proceeds iteratively, with extensive stakeholder feedback from training sessions or annual workshops. To make the model accessible to diverse users, the team developed a multi-layered interface, with general farming scenarios for general use, but giving access to detailed coefficients and assumptions to researchers. The model relies on extensive climate, soil, and agronomic databases to populate regionally-applicable default values thereby minimizing keyboard entries. In an initial application, the model was used to assess greenhouse gas emissions from the Canadian beef production system; it showed that enteric methane accounted for 63% of total GHG emissions and that 84% of emissions originated from the cow-calf herd. The model further showed that GHG emission intensity per kg beef, nationally, declined by 14% from 1981 to 2011, owing to gains in production efficiency. Holos is now being used to consider further potential advances through improved rations or other management options. We are now aiming to expand into questions of grazing management, and are developing a novel carbon

Testing Software Development Project Productivity Model

Science.gov (United States)

Lipkin, Ilya

Software development is an increasingly influential factor in today's business environment, and a major issue affecting software development is how an organization estimates projects. If the organization underestimates cost, schedule, and quality requirements, the end results will not meet customer needs. On the other hand, if the organization overestimates these criteria, resources that could have been used more profitably will be wasted. There is no accurate model or measure available that can guide an organization in a quest for software development, with existing estimation models often underestimating software development efforts as much as 500 to 600 percent. To address this issue, existing models usually are calibrated using local data with a small sample size, with resulting estimates not offering improved cost analysis. This study presents a conceptual model for accurately estimating software development, based on an extensive literature review and theoretical analysis based on Sociotechnical Systems (STS) theory. The conceptual model serves as a solution to bridge organizational and technological factors and is validated using an empirical dataset provided by the DoD. Practical implications of this study allow for practitioners to concentrate on specific constructs of interest that provide the best value for the least amount of time. This study outlines key contributing constructs that are unique for Software Size E-SLOC, Man-hours Spent, and Quality of the Product, those constructs having the largest contribution to project productivity. This study discusses customer characteristics and provides a framework for a simplified project analysis for source selection evaluation and audit task reviews for the customers and suppliers. Theoretical contributions of this study provide an initial theory-based hypothesized project productivity model that can be used as a generic overall model across several application domains such as IT, Command and Control

Improving Predictive Modeling in Pediatric Drug Development: Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics, and Mechanistic Modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Slikker, William; Young, John F.; Corley, Rick A.; Dorman, David C.; Conolly, Rory B.; Knudsen, Thomas; Erstad, Brian L.; Luecke, Richard H.; Faustman, Elaine M.; Timchalk, Chuck; Mattison, Donald R.

2005-07-26

A workshop was conducted on November 18?19, 2004, to address the issue of improving predictive models for drug delivery to developing humans. Although considerable progress has been made for adult humans, large gaps remain for predicting pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) outcome in children because most adult models have not been tested during development. The goals of the meeting included a description of when, during development, infants/children become adultlike in handling drugs. The issue of incorporating the most recent advances into the predictive models was also addressed: both the use of imaging approaches and genomic information were considered. Disease state, as exemplified by obesity, was addressed as a modifier of drug pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics during development. Issues addressed in this workshop should be considered in the development of new predictive and mechanistic models of drug kinetics and dynamics in the developing human.

Future of endemic flora of biodiversity hotspots in India.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vishwas Sudhir Chitale

Full Text Available India is one of the 12 mega biodiversity countries of the world, which represents 11% of world's flora in about 2.4% of global land mass. Approximately 28% of the total Indian flora and 33% of angiosperms occurring in India are endemic. Higher human population density in biodiversity hotspots in India puts undue pressure on these sensitive eco-regions. In the present study, we predict the future distribution of 637 endemic plant species from three biodiversity hotspots in India; Himalaya, Western Ghats, Indo-Burma, based on A1B scenario for year 2050 and 2080. We develop individual variable based models as well as mixed models in MaxEnt by combining ten least co-related bioclimatic variables, two disturbance variables and one physiography variable as predictor variables. The projected changes suggest that the endemic flora will be adversely impacted, even under such a moderate climate scenario. The future distribution is predicted to shift in northern and north-eastern direction in Himalaya and Indo-Burma, while in southern and south-western direction in Western Ghats, due to cooler climatic conditions in these regions. In the future distribution of endemic plants, we observe a significant shift and reduction in the distribution range compared to the present distribution. The model predicts a 23.99% range reduction and a 7.70% range expansion in future distribution by 2050, while a 41.34% range reduction and a 24.10% range expansion by 2080. Integration of disturbance and physiography variables along with bioclimatic variables in the models improved the prediction accuracy. Mixed models provide most accurate results for most of the combinations of climatic and non-climatic variables as compared to individual variable based models. We conclude that a regions with cooler climates and higher moisture availability could serve as refugia for endemic plants in future climatic conditions; b mixed models provide more accurate results, compared to single

Future of endemic flora of biodiversity hotspots in India.

Science.gov (United States)

Chitale, Vishwas Sudhir; Behera, Mukund Dev; Roy, Partha Sarthi

2014-01-01

India is one of the 12 mega biodiversity countries of the world, which represents 11% of world's flora in about 2.4% of global land mass. Approximately 28% of the total Indian flora and 33% of angiosperms occurring in India are endemic. Higher human population density in biodiversity hotspots in India puts undue pressure on these sensitive eco-regions. In the present study, we predict the future distribution of 637 endemic plant species from three biodiversity hotspots in India; Himalaya, Western Ghats, Indo-Burma, based on A1B scenario for year 2050 and 2080. We develop individual variable based models as well as mixed models in MaxEnt by combining ten least co-related bioclimatic variables, two disturbance variables and one physiography variable as predictor variables. The projected changes suggest that the endemic flora will be adversely impacted, even under such a moderate climate scenario. The future distribution is predicted to shift in northern and north-eastern direction in Himalaya and Indo-Burma, while in southern and south-western direction in Western Ghats, due to cooler climatic conditions in these regions. In the future distribution of endemic plants, we observe a significant shift and reduction in the distribution range compared to the present distribution. The model predicts a 23.99% range reduction and a 7.70% range expansion in future distribution by 2050, while a 41.34% range reduction and a 24.10% range expansion by 2080. Integration of disturbance and physiography variables along with bioclimatic variables in the models improved the prediction accuracy. Mixed models provide most accurate results for most of the combinations of climatic and non-climatic variables as compared to individual variable based models. We conclude that a) regions with cooler climates and higher moisture availability could serve as refugia for endemic plants in future climatic conditions; b) mixed models provide more accurate results, compared to single variable based

Gsflow-py: An integrated hydrologic model development tool

Science.gov (United States)

Gardner, M.; Niswonger, R. G.; Morton, C.; Henson, W.; Huntington, J. L.

2017-12-01

Integrated hydrologic modeling encompasses a vast number of processes and specifications, variable in time and space, and development of model datasets can be arduous. Model input construction techniques have not been formalized or made easily reproducible. Creating the input files for integrated hydrologic models (IHM) requires complex GIS processing of raster and vector datasets from various sources. Developing stream network topology that is consistent with the model resolution digital elevation model is important for robust simulation of surface water and groundwater exchanges. Distribution of meteorologic parameters over the model domain is difficult in complex terrain at the model resolution scale, but is necessary to drive realistic simulations. Historically, development of input data for IHM models has required extensive GIS and computer programming expertise which has restricted the use of IHMs to research groups with available financial, human, and technical resources. Here we present a series of Python scripts that provide a formalized technique for the parameterization and development of integrated hydrologic model inputs for GSFLOW. With some modifications, this process could be applied to any regular grid hydrologic model. This Python toolkit automates many of the necessary and laborious processes of parameterization, including stream network development and cascade routing, land coverages, and meteorological distribution over the model domain.

Using the object modeling system for hydrological model development and application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Kralisch

2005-01-01

Full Text Available State of the art challenges in sustainable management of water resources have created demand for integrated, flexible and easy to use hydrological models which are able to simulate the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the hydrological cycle with a sufficient degree of certainty. Existing models which have been de-veloped to fit these needs are often constrained to specific scales or purposes and thus can not be easily adapted to meet different challenges. As a solution for flexible and modularised model development and application, the Object Modeling System (OMS has been developed in a joint approach by the USDA-ARS, GPSRU (Fort Collins, CO, USA, USGS (Denver, CO, USA, and the FSU (Jena, Germany. The OMS provides a modern modelling framework which allows the implementation of single process components to be compiled and applied as custom tailored model assemblies. This paper describes basic principles of the OMS and its main components and explains in more detail how the problems during coupling of models or model components are solved inside the system. It highlights the integration of different spatial and temporal scales by their representation as spatial modelling entities embedded into time compound components. As an exam-ple the implementation of the hydrological model J2000 is discussed.

Hydrologic and Water Quality Model Development Using Simulink

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James D. Bowen

2014-11-01

Full Text Available A stormwater runoff model based on the Soil Conservation Service (SCS method and a finite-volume based water quality model have been developed to investigate the use of Simulink for use in teaching and research. Simulink, a MATLAB extension, is a graphically based model development environment for system modeling and simulation. Widely used for mechanical and electrical systems, Simulink has had less use for modeling of hydrologic systems. The watershed model is being considered for use in teaching graduate-level courses in hydrology and/or stormwater modeling. Simulink’s block (data process and arrow (data transfer object model, the copy and paste user interface, the large number of existing blocks, and the absence of computer code allows students to become model developers almost immediately. The visual depiction of systems, their component subsystems, and the flow of data through the systems are ideal attributes for hands-on teaching of hydrologic and mass balance processes to today’s computer-savvy visual learners. Model development with Simulink for research purposes is also investigated. A finite volume, multi-layer pond model using the water quality kinetics present in CE-QUAL-W2 has been developed using Simulink. The model is one of the first uses of Simulink for modeling eutrophication dynamics in stratified natural systems. The model structure and a test case are presented. One use of the model for teaching a graduate-level water quality modeling class is also described.

Developing a Model Component

Science.gov (United States)

Fields, Christina M.

2013-01-01

The Spaceport Command and Control System (SCCS) Simulation Computer Software Configuration Item (CSCI) is responsible for providing simulations to support test and verification of SCCS hardware and software. The Universal Coolant Transporter System (UCTS) was a Space Shuttle Orbiter support piece of the Ground Servicing Equipment (GSE). The initial purpose of the UCTS was to provide two support services to the Space Shuttle Orbiter immediately after landing at the Shuttle Landing Facility. The UCTS is designed with the capability of servicing future space vehicles; including all Space Station Requirements necessary for the MPLM Modules. The Simulation uses GSE Models to stand in for the actual systems to support testing of SCCS systems during their development. As an intern at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), my assignment was to develop a model component for the UCTS. I was given a fluid component (dryer) to model in Simulink. I completed training for UNIX and Simulink. The dryer is a Catch All replaceable core type filter-dryer. The filter-dryer provides maximum protection for the thermostatic expansion valve and solenoid valve from dirt that may be in the system. The filter-dryer also protects the valves from freezing up. I researched fluid dynamics to understand the function of my component. The filter-dryer was modeled by determining affects it has on the pressure and velocity of the system. I used Bernoulli's Equation to calculate the pressure and velocity differential through the dryer. I created my filter-dryer model in Simulink and wrote the test script to test the component. I completed component testing and captured test data. The finalized model was sent for peer review for any improvements. I participated in Simulation meetings and was involved in the subsystem design process and team collaborations. I gained valuable work experience and insight into a career path as an engineer.

Parallel Development of Products and New Business Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Morten; Hansen, Poul H. Kyvsgård

2014-01-01

The perception of product development and the practical execution of product development in professional organizations have undergone dramatic changes in recent years. Many of these chances relate to introduction of broader and more cross-disciplinary views that involves new organizational functi...... and innovation management the 4th generation models are increasingly including the concept business models and business model innovation....... functions and new concepts. These chances can be captured in various generations of practice. This paper will discuss the recent development of 3rd generation product development process models and the emergence of a 4th generation. While the 3rd generation models included the concept of innovation...

Structural modeling of sustainable housing “Oikos tuchineros of cow dung, bahareque and wood”

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Rodrigo Hernández- Ávila

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The indigenous constructions of the Municipality of Tuchín, have been made over time in an artisan way, with materials from the area, which possibly do not meet the normative requirements. In this municipality there are winds that cause the fall of the structure, low resistance of its structural elements, homes not suitable for living and high insecurity conditions. This Municipality was chosen like pilot and at the moment it is recognized internationally for its constructions with techniques and ancestral practices, in addition, of its excellent crafts like the “vueltiao” hat; all this contributes to a structural modeling of this house in order to improve the quality of life of its inhabitants, for this it is desired to carry out a structural modeling with a construction system similar to the current one with suitable equipment and of the region , generating homes that comply with the NSR-10 resistant earthquake, technical specifications, bioclimatic considerations, optimization of the materials and the resources used, making it efficient during its useful life so as to guarantee the structural and cultural sustainability of housing.

A model for development of freight transport; En model for godstransportens udvikling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kveiborg, O. [National Environmental Res., Systems Analysis Dept. Roskilde (Denmark)

2001-01-01

This report describes the results of a large project conducted in a corporation between Statistics Denmark and the Danish National Environmental Research Institute. The main objective of the project has been to analyse the possibilities of prescribing the development in the Danish freight transport in a more appropriate and precise way than it is done by existing models. A secondary objective of the project was to develop a model based on the findings of the analysis. The intention was to be able to describe all areas of freight transport. The analysis has proven it impossible to improve the existing calculations in some areas of transport. Hence, the project has been narrowed down to focus exclusively on road freight transport. The developed model distinguishes itself from existing models by a much higher level of detail in the calculations. This enables the model to describe the structural relations between transport and economic activity, which has previously been subsumed in the aggregate calculations of existing models. The work carried out in the process of developing a model for the freight transport has encountered many difficulties. The findings described in this report are merely one step towards a better understanding of the relation between economic development and transport. The descriptions on the following pages will describe some of the difficulties we have had in achieving an appropriate statistical description of the different linkages. Furthermore, the calculations carried out with the model point at other unsolved problems. There is an indication that the model tends to overestimate the developments in freight transport. In this respect, the very disaggregate calculations of the model can be seen as both an advantage and as a disadvantage because each extra calculation gives rise to further uncertainties in the overall result. Even though we have had great difficulties finding adequate descriptions of the development in the factors in the model

Importance of individual analysis of environmental and climatic factors affecting the density of Leishmania vectors living in the same geographical area: the example of Phlebotomus ariasi and P. perniciosus in northeast Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina Ballart

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to determine the role of specific environmental and climatic factors affecting the distribution and density of Phlebotomus ariasi and P. perniciosus, the proven vectors for Leishmania infantum in Spain. An entomological study was carried out in July 2006 in the province of Lleida with sticky traps set in their diurnal resting places at altitudes ranging from 86 to 1,755 m above the mean sea level (339 sites were sampled. Bivariate analysis revealed that factors such as altitude, bioclimatic zone, temperature, precipitation, sampling site (site relative to settlement, site situation, site category, wall vegetation, particular environment (in this case a natural park, general environment, adjacent natural vegetation and land cover were significantly associated with sand fly densities. The multivariate model for P. perniciosus revealed that its density was affected by site and land cover. Specifically, paved driveways correlated negatively with vector density (Incidence Risk Ratio (IRR: 0.41 and arable land cover correlated positively (IRR: 4.59. In the case of P. ariasi, a significant correlation was observed with the altitude and bioclimatic zone, with density increasing at >800 m above the mean sea level (IRR: 3.40 and decreasing in the meso-Mediterranean bioclimatic zone (IRR: 0.08. Both species were mostly found in agricultural and forest areas far from domestic environments. However, the two species correlated differently with altitude, bio-climate, vegetation, temperature and precipitation, which emphasises the importance of their individual analysis in studies regarding risk of leishmaniasis transmission.

A Model-Driven Development Method for Management Information Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Mizuno, Tomoki; Matsumoto, Keinosuke; Mori, Naoki

Traditionally, a Management Information System (MIS) has been developed without using formal methods. By the informal methods, the MIS is developed on its lifecycle without having any models. It causes many problems such as lack of the reliability of system design specifications. In order to overcome these problems, a model theory approach was proposed. The approach is based on an idea that a system can be modeled by automata and set theory. However, it is very difficult to generate automata of the system to be developed right from the start. On the other hand, there is a model-driven development method that can flexibly correspond to changes of business logics or implementing technologies. In the model-driven development, a system is modeled using a modeling language such as UML. This paper proposes a new development method for management information systems applying the model-driven development method to a component of the model theory approach. The experiment has shown that a reduced amount of efforts is more than 30% of all the efforts.

On Support Functions for the Development of MFM Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heussen, Kai; Lind, Morten

2012-01-01

a review of MFM applications, and contextualizes the model development with respect to process design and operation knowledge. Developing a perspective for an environment for MFM-oriented model- and application-development a tool-chain is outlined and relevant software functions are discussed......A modeling environment and methodology are necessary to ensure quality and reusability of models in any domain. For MFM in particular, as a tool for modeling complex systems, awareness has been increasing for this need. Introducing the context of modeling support functions, this paper provides....... With a perspective on MFM-modeling for existing processes and automation design, modeling stages and corresponding formal model properties are identified. Finally, practically feasible support functions and model-checks to support the model-development are suggested....

Potential suitable areas of giant ground sloths dropped before its extinction in South America

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus Souza; Varela, Sara; Nogues, David Bravo

2012-01-01

of the climate preferences through time for the two species and modeled their potential distributions at last glacial maximum (LGM, 21 ky BP) and mid-Holocene (6 ky BP) using Bioclimatic Envelope Modeling (BEM), fossil records and paleoclimatic simulations. The model predictions showed a drastic reduction......Here we analyze the effects that climatic changes through last ice age had on the potential distributions and extinction risk dynamics of two extinct species of South American giant ground sloths, Eremotherium laurillardi and Megatherium americanum. We tested the assumption of stability...

Macroeconomic model of national economy development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Naval

1996-03-01

Full Text Available Some approaches to modeling of national economy development are considered. Methods and models for determination of forecasting values of macroeconomic parameters are proposed at availability or absence of external financing.

Model-Driven Development of Safety Architectures

Science.gov (United States)

Denney, Ewen; Pai, Ganesh; Whiteside, Iain

2017-01-01

We describe the use of model-driven development for safety assurance of a pioneering NASA flight operation involving a fleet of small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) flying beyond visual line of sight. The central idea is to develop a safety architecture that provides the basis for risk assessment and visualization within a safety case, the formal justification of acceptable safety required by the aviation regulatory authority. A safety architecture is composed from a collection of bow tie diagrams (BTDs), a practical approach to manage safety risk by linking the identified hazards to the appropriate mitigation measures. The safety justification for a given unmanned aircraft system (UAS) operation can have many related BTDs. In practice, however, each BTD is independently developed, which poses challenges with respect to incremental development, maintaining consistency across different safety artifacts when changes occur, and in extracting and presenting stakeholder specific information relevant for decision making. We show how a safety architecture reconciles the various BTDs of a system, and, collectively, provide an overarching picture of system safety, by considering them as views of a unified model. We also show how it enables model-driven development of BTDs, replete with validations, transformations, and a range of views. Our approach, which we have implemented in our toolset, AdvoCATE, is illustrated with a running example drawn from a real UAS safety case. The models and some of the innovations described here were instrumental in successfully obtaining regulatory flight approval.

Computer-aided modeling framework for efficient model development, analysis and identification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heitzig, Martina; Sin, Gürkan; Sales Cruz, Mauricio

2011-01-01

Model-based computer aided product-process engineering has attained increased importance in a number of industries, including pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals, fine chemicals, polymers, biotechnology, food, energy, and water. This trend is set to continue due to the substantial benefits computer-aided...... methods introduce. The key prerequisite of computer-aided product-process engineering is however the availability of models of different types, forms, and application modes. The development of the models required for the systems under investigation tends to be a challenging and time-consuming task....... The methodology has been implemented into a computer-aided modeling framework, which combines expert skills, tools, and database connections that are required for the different steps of the model development work-flow with the goal to increase the efficiency of the modeling process. The framework has two main...

The Development Model Electronic Commerce of Regional Agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Jun; Cai, Lecai; Li, Hongchan

With the developing of the agricultural information, it is inevitable trend of the development of agricultural electronic commercial affairs. On the basis of existing study on the development application model of e-commerce, combined with the character of the agricultural information, compared with the developing model from the theory and reality, a new development model electronic commerce of regional agriculture base on the government is put up, and such key issues as problems of the security applications, payment mode, sharing mechanisms, and legal protection are analyzed, etc. The among coordination mechanism of the region is discussed on, it is significance for regulating the development of agricultural e-commerce and promoting the regional economical development.

BWR Refill-Reflood Program, Task 4.7 - model development: TRAC-BWR component models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheung, Y.K.; Parameswaran, V.; Shaug, J.C.

1983-09-01

TRAC (Transient Reactor Analysis Code) is a computer code for best-estimate analysis for the thermal hydraulic conditions in a reactor system. The development and assessment of the BWR component models developed under the Refill/Reflood Program that are necessary to structure a BWR-version of TRAC are described in this report. These component models are the jet pump, steam separator, steam dryer, two-phase level tracking model, and upper-plenum mixing model. These models have been implemented into TRAC-B02. Also a single-channel option has been developed for individual fuel-channel analysis following a system-response calculation

Developing Integrated Care: Towards a development model for integrated care

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.M.N. Minkman (Mirella)

2012-01-01

textabstractThe thesis adresses the phenomenon of integrated care. The implementation of integrated care for patients with a stroke or dementia is studied. Because a generic quality management model for integrated care is lacking, the study works towards building a development model for integrated

Supo Thermal Model Development II

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wass, Alexander Joseph [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2017-07-14

This report describes the continuation of the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model of the Supo cooling system described in the report, Supo Thermal Model Development1, by Cynthia Buechler. The goal for this report is to estimate the natural convection heat transfer coefficient (HTC) of the system using the CFD results and to compare those results to remaining past operational data. Also, the correlation for determining radiolytic gas bubble size is reevaluated using the larger simulation sample size. The background, solution vessel geometry, mesh, material properties, and boundary conditions are developed in the same manner as the previous report. Although, the material properties and boundary conditions are determined using the appropriate experiment results for each individual power level.

An Overview of Strategy Development Models and the Ward-Rivani Model

OpenAIRE

David Ward; Elena Rivani

2005-01-01

Numerous models for developing strategy, defining and aligning competitive advantage have been proposed over the years (and even centuries if we consider Arian, Sun Tzu etc.) including probably the most famous of all, the 5 forces model by Porter (P5F). With publications in the field of strategy now in the thousands it is difficult to get an overall picture of how to classify and appreciate strategy tools and models. Mintzberg et al. have developed schools of thought to help alleviate and cat...

Developing rural palliative care: validating a conceptual model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelley, Mary Lou; Williams, Allison; DeMiglio, Lily; Mettam, Hilary

2011-01-01

The purpose of this research was to validate a conceptual model for developing palliative care in rural communities. This model articulates how local rural healthcare providers develop palliative care services according to four sequential phases. The model has roots in concepts of community capacity development, evolves from collaborative, generalist rural practice, and utilizes existing health services infrastructure. It addresses how rural providers manage challenges, specifically those related to: lack of resources, minimal community understanding of palliative care, health professionals' resistance, the bureaucracy of the health system, and the obstacles of providing services in rural environments. Seven semi-structured focus groups were conducted with interdisciplinary health providers in 7 rural communities in two Canadian provinces. Using a constant comparative analysis approach, focus group data were analyzed by examining participants' statements in relation to the model and comparing emerging themes in the development of rural palliative care to the elements of the model. The data validated the conceptual model as the model was able to theoretically predict and explain the experiences of the 7 rural communities that participated in the study. New emerging themes from the data elaborated existing elements in the model and informed the requirement for minor revisions. The model was validated and slightly revised, as suggested by the data. The model was confirmed as being a useful theoretical tool for conceptualizing the development of rural palliative care that is applicable in diverse rural communities.

Preliminary Development of Regulatory PSA Models for SFR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Yong Won; Shin, Andong; Bae, Moohoon; Suh, Namduk; Lee, Yong Suk

2013-01-01

Well developed PRA methodology exists for LWR (Light Water Reactor) and PHWR (Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor). Since KAERI is developing a prototype SFR targeting to apply for a license by 2017, KINS needs to have a PRA models to assess the safety of this prototype reactor. The purpose of this study is to develop the regulatory PSA models for the independent verification of the SFR safety. Since the design of the prototype SFR is not mature yet, we have tried to develop the preliminary models based on the design data of KAERI's previous SFR design. In this study, the preliminary initiating events of level 1 internal event for SFR were selected through reviews of existing PRA (LWR, PRISM, ASTRID and KALIMER-600) models. Then, the event tree for each selected initiating event was developed. The regulatory PRA models of SFR developed are preliminary in a sense, because the prototype SFR design is not mature and provided yet. Still it might be utilized for the forthcoming licensing review in assessing the risk of safety issues and the configuration control of the design

Logistic regression modelling: procedures and pitfalls in developing and interpreting prediction models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nataša Šarlija

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This study sheds light on the most common issues related to applying logistic regression in prediction models for company growth. The purpose of the paper is 1 to provide a detailed demonstration of the steps in developing a growth prediction model based on logistic regression analysis, 2 to discuss common pitfalls and methodological errors in developing a model, and 3 to provide solutions and possible ways of overcoming these issues. Special attention is devoted to the question of satisfying logistic regression assumptions, selecting and defining dependent and independent variables, using classification tables and ROC curves, for reporting model strength, interpreting odds ratios as effect measures and evaluating performance of the prediction model. Development of a logistic regression model in this paper focuses on a prediction model of company growth. The analysis is based on predominantly financial data from a sample of 1471 small and medium-sized Croatian companies active between 2009 and 2014. The financial data is presented in the form of financial ratios divided into nine main groups depicting following areas of business: liquidity, leverage, activity, profitability, research and development, investing and export. The growth prediction model indicates aspects of a business critical for achieving high growth. In that respect, the contribution of this paper is twofold. First, methodological, in terms of pointing out pitfalls and potential solutions in logistic regression modelling, and secondly, theoretical, in terms of identifying factors responsible for high growth of small and medium-sized companies.

Consistency and Reconciliation Model In Regional Development Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dina Suryawati

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to identify the problems and determine the conceptual model of regional development planning. Regional development planning is a systemic, complex and unstructured process. Therefore, this study used soft systems methodology to outline unstructured issues with a structured approach. The conceptual models that were successfully constructed in this study are a model of consistency and a model of reconciliation. Regional development planning is a process that is well-integrated with central planning and inter-regional planning documents. Integration and consistency of regional planning documents are very important in order to achieve the development goals that have been set. On the other hand, the process of development planning in the region involves technocratic system, that is, both top-down and bottom-up system of participation. Both must be balanced, do not overlap and do not dominate each other. regional, development, planning, consistency, reconciliation

Parametric Cost and Schedule Modeling for Early Technology Development

Science.gov (United States)

2018-04-02

Research NoteNational Security Rep rt PARAMETRIC MODELING FOR EARLY TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT COST AND SCHEDULE Chuck...Alexander NSR_11x17_Cover_CostModeling_v8.indd 1 11/20/17 3:15 PM PARAMETRIC COST AND SCHEDULE MODELING FOR EARLY  TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT Chuck...COST AND SCHEDULE MODELING FOR EARLY  TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT iii Contents Figures

Features of Balance Model Development of Exclave Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timur Rustamovich Gareev

2015-06-01

Full Text Available In the article, the authors build a balance model for an exclave region. The aim of the work is to explore the unique properties of exclaves to evaluate the possibility of development of a more complex model for the economy of a region. Exclaves are strange phenomena in both theoretical and practical regional economy. There is lack of comparative models, so it is typically quite challenging to study exclaves. At the same time, exclaves produce better statistics, which gives more careful consideration of cross-regional economic flows. The authors discuss methodologies of model-based regional development forecasting. They analyze balance approach on a more general level of regional governance and individually, on the example of specific territories. Thus, they identify and explain the need to develop balance approach models fitted to the special needs of certain territories. By combining regional modeling for an exclave with traditional balance and simulation-based methods and event-based approach, they come up with a more detailed model for the economy of a region. Having taken one Russian exclave as an example, the authors have developed a simulation event-based long-term sustainability model. In the article, they provide the general characteristics of the model, describe its components, and simulation algorithm. The approach introduced in this article combines the traditional balance models and the peculiarities of an exclave region to develop a holistic regional economy model (with the Kaliningrad region serving as an example. It is important to underline that the resulting model helps to evaluate the degree of influence of preferential economic regimes (such as Free Customs Zone, for example on the economy of a region.

Delineating ecological boundaries of Hanuman langur species complex in peninsular India using MaxEnt modeling approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Nag, Chetan; Chetan, Nag; Karanth, K Praveen; Praveen, Karanth K; Gururaja, Kotambylu Vasudeva; Vasudeva, Gururaja Kotambylu

2014-01-01

Hanuman langur is one of the widely distributed and extensively studied non-human diurnal primates in India. Until recently it was believed to be a single species - Semnopithecus entellus. Recent molecular and morphological studies suggest that the Hanuman langurs consists of at least three species S. entellus, S. hypoleucos and S. priam. Furthermore, morphological studies suggested that both S. hypoleucos and S. priam have at least three subspecies in each. We explored the use of ecological niche modeling (ENM) to confirm the validity of these seven taxa and an additional taxon S. johnii belonging to the same genus. MaxEnt modeling tool was used with 19 bioclimatic, 12 vegetation and 6 hydrological environmental layers. We reduced total environmental variables to 14 layers after testing for collinearity and an independent test for model prediction was done using ENMTools. A total of 196 non-overlapping data points from primary and secondary sources were used as inputs for ENM. Results showed eight distinct ecological boundaries, corroborating the eight taxa mentioned above thereby confirming validity of these eight taxa. The study, for the first time provided ecological variables that determined the ecological requirements and distribution of members of the Hanuman langur species complex in the Indian peninsula.

An Aristotelian Model of Moral Development

Science.gov (United States)

Sanderse, Wouter

2015-01-01

Despite the Aristotelian renaissance in the philosophy of education, the development of virtue has not received much attention. This is unfortunate, because an attempt to draft an Aristotelian model of moral development can help philosophers to evaluate the contribution Aristotelian virtue ethics can make to our understanding of moral development,…

A new approach for developing adjoint models

Science.gov (United States)

Farrell, P. E.; Funke, S. W.

2011-12-01

Many data assimilation algorithms rely on the availability of gradients of misfit functionals, which can be efficiently computed with adjoint models. However, the development of an adjoint model for a complex geophysical code is generally very difficult. Algorithmic differentiation (AD, also called automatic differentiation) offers one strategy for simplifying this task: it takes the abstraction that a model is a sequence of primitive instructions, each of which may be differentiated in turn. While extremely successful, this low-level abstraction runs into time-consuming difficulties when applied to the whole codebase of a model, such as differentiating through linear solves, model I/O, calls to external libraries, language features that are unsupported by the AD tool, and the use of multiple programming languages. While these difficulties can be overcome, it requires a large amount of technical expertise and an intimate familiarity with both the AD tool and the model. An alternative to applying the AD tool to the whole codebase is to assemble the discrete adjoint equations and use these to compute the necessary gradients. With this approach, the AD tool must be applied to the nonlinear assembly operators, which are typically small, self-contained units of the codebase. The disadvantage of this approach is that the assembly of the discrete adjoint equations is still very difficult to perform correctly, especially for complex multiphysics models that perform temporal integration; as it stands, this approach is as difficult and time-consuming as applying AD to the whole model. In this work, we have developed a library which greatly simplifies and automates the alternate approach of assembling the discrete adjoint equations. We propose a complementary, higher-level abstraction to that of AD: that a model is a sequence of linear solves. The developer annotates model source code with library calls that build a 'tape' of the operators involved and their dependencies, and

Development and Application of a Low Impact Development (LID-Based District Unit Planning Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheol Hee Son

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to develop a low impact development-based district unit planning (LID-DP model and to verify the model by applying it to a test site. To develop the model, we identified various barriers to the urban planning process and examined the advantages of various LID-related techniques to determine where in the urban development process LID would provide the greatest benefit. The resulting model provides (1 a set of district unit planning processes that consider LID standards and (2 a set of evaluation methods that measure the benefits of the LID-DP model over standard urban development practices. The developed LID-DP process is composed of status analysis, comprehensive analysis, basic plan, and sectoral plans. To determine whether the LID-DP model met the proposed LID targets, we applied the model to a test site in Cheongju City, Chungcheongbuk-do Province, Republic of Korea. The test simulation showed that the LID-DP plan reduced nonpoint source pollutants (total nitrogen, 113%; total phosphorous, 193%; and biological oxygen demand, 199%; reduced rainfall runoff (infiltration volume, 102%; surface runoff, 101%; and improved the conservation rate of the natural environment area (132%. The successful application of this model also lent support for the greater importance of non-structural techniques over structural techniques in urban planning when taking ecological factors into account.

Mechanical Model Development for Composite Structural Supercapacitors

Science.gov (United States)

Ricks, Trenton M.; Lacy, Thomas E., Jr.; Santiago, Diana; Bednarcyk, Brett A.

2016-01-01

Novel composite structural supercapacitor concepts have recently been developed as a means both to store electrical charge and to provide modest mechanical load carrying capability. Double-layer composite supercapacitors are often fabricated by impregnating a woven carbon fiber fabric, which serves as the electrodes, with a structural polymer electrolyte. Polypropylene or a glass fabric is often used as the separator material. Recent research has been primarily limited to evaluating these composites experimentally. In this study, mechanical models based on the Multiscale Generalized Method of Cells (MSGMC) were developed and used to calculate the shear and tensile properties and response of two composite structural supercapacitors from the literature. The modeling approach was first validated against traditional composite laminate data. MSGMC models for composite supercapacitors were developed, and accurate elastic shear/tensile properties were obtained. It is envisioned that further development of the models presented in this work will facilitate the design of composite components for aerospace and automotive applications and can be used to screen candidate constituent materials for inclusion in future composite structural supercapacitor concepts.

Risk zones of human Leishmaniases in the Western Mediterranean basin: correlations between vector sand flies, bioclimatology and phytosociology.

Science.gov (United States)

Rispail, Philippe; Dereure, Jacques; Jarry, Daniel

2002-06-01

Correspondence analysis was applied to sand fly sampling in 865 stations from the Western Mediterranean basin. The position of each of 24 species was determined with respect to the bioclimatic belts. Thus, the multidimensional analyses manifest clear correlations between bioclimatic belts and their expression in the area, the phytosociological groupings, and vector species of visceral and cutaneous leishmaniases. The transfer of these data to usual maps allows to delimit the geographical distribution of these diseases in the Western Mediterranean basin and contributes to the determination, in a rational manner, of the high risk zones.

Extending product modeling methods for integrated product development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bonev, Martin; Wörösch, Michael; Hauksdóttir, Dagný

2013-01-01

Despite great efforts within the modeling domain, the majority of methods often address the uncommon design situation of an original product development. However, studies illustrate that development tasks are predominantly related to redesigning, improving, and extending already existing products...... and PVM methods, in a presented Product Requirement Development model some of the individual drawbacks of each method could be overcome. Based on the UML standard, the model enables the representation of complex hierarchical relationships in a generic product model. At the same time it uses matrix....... Updated design requirements have then to be made explicit and mapped against the existing product architecture. In this paper, existing methods are adapted and extended through linking updated requirements to suitable product models. By combining several established modeling techniques, such as the DSM...

Model for Simulating a Spiral Software-Development Process

Science.gov (United States)

Mizell, Carolyn; Curley, Charles; Nayak, Umanath

2010-01-01

A discrete-event simulation model, and a computer program that implements the model, have been developed as means of analyzing a spiral software-development process. This model can be tailored to specific development environments for use by software project managers in making quantitative cases for deciding among different software-development processes, courses of action, and cost estimates. A spiral process can be contrasted with a waterfall process, which is a traditional process that consists of a sequence of activities that include analysis of requirements, design, coding, testing, and support. A spiral process is an iterative process that can be regarded as a repeating modified waterfall process. Each iteration includes assessment of risk, analysis of requirements, design, coding, testing, delivery, and evaluation. A key difference between a spiral and a waterfall process is that a spiral process can accommodate changes in requirements at each iteration, whereas in a waterfall process, requirements are considered to be fixed from the beginning and, therefore, a waterfall process is not flexible enough for some projects, especially those in which requirements are not known at the beginning or may change during development. For a given project, a spiral process may cost more and take more time than does a waterfall process, but may better satisfy a customer's expectations and needs. Models for simulating various waterfall processes have been developed previously, but until now, there have been no models for simulating spiral processes. The present spiral-process-simulating model and the software that implements it were developed by extending a discrete-event simulation process model of the IEEE 12207 Software Development Process, which was built using commercially available software known as the Process Analysis Tradeoff Tool (PATT). Typical inputs to PATT models include industry-average values of product size (expressed as number of lines of code

Kinetics model development of cocoa bean fermentation

Science.gov (United States)

Kresnowati, M. T. A. P.; Gunawan, Agus Yodi; Muliyadini, Winny

2015-12-01

Although Indonesia is one of the biggest cocoa beans producers in the world, Indonesian cocoa beans are oftenly of low quality and thereby frequently priced low in the world market. In order to improve the quality, adequate post-harvest cocoa processing techniques are required. Fermentation is the vital stage in series of cocoa beans post harvest processing which could improve the quality of cocoa beans, in particular taste, aroma, and colours. During the fermentation process, combination of microbes grow producing metabolites that serve as the precursors for cocoa beans flavour. Microbial composition and thereby their activities will affect the fermentation performance and influence the properties of cocoa beans. The correlation could be reviewed using a kinetic model that includes unstructured microbial growth, substrate utilization and metabolic product formation. The developed kinetic model could be further used to design cocoa bean fermentation process to meet the expected quality. Further the development of kinetic model of cocoa bean fermentation also serve as a good case study of mixed culture solid state fermentation, that has rarely been studied. This paper presents the development of a kinetic model for solid-state cocoa beans fermentation using an empirical approach. Series of lab scale cocoa bean fermentations, either natural fermentations without starter addition or fermentations with mixed yeast and lactic acid bacteria starter addition, were used for model parameters estimation. The results showed that cocoa beans fermentation can be modelled mathematically and the best model included substrate utilization, microbial growth, metabolites production and its transport. Although the developed model still can not explain the dynamics in microbial population, this model can sufficiently explained the observed changes in sugar concentration as well as metabolic products in the cocoa bean pulp.

Simulation of rain in the watershed Ghezala by KINEROS 2 model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marghmi, Afef

2010-01-01

The objective of this study is modeling runoff by hydrological, distributed physically based Model, KINEROS2. This model has allowed after calibration to analyze and simulate the hydrological behavior of the watershed Ghezala .The Watershed Ghezala is located in north of Tunisia, in the governorate of Bizerte. It belongs to the bioclimatic mild winter. It covers an area of 4723h, at this watershed; the dominating slop is between 8and 15 pour cent which covers the almost area of the watershed. Dominant type of soil is Calcareous brown guy covering almost 54 pour cent of its total area; Land cover is characterized by the dominance of grain covering 73 pour cent of watershed area. KINEROS2 requires the division of the watershed into plain and channels cascading from upstream to downstream taking into consideration of flow, the geology and land cover of the watershed. During the calibration observed and simulated hydrographs, it must be based on the more sensitive parameters of the model: K (saturated hydraulic conductivity) G (net effective capillary conductivity) and n (parameter Mannig). The calibration's result shows that the error does not exceed, 1pour cent for liquid peak flows of flood hydrographs observed and simulated, 17pour cent for the volume of raw observed and simulated. Thus, the analysis of the hydrological behavior of the watershed studied through the hydrological response to a solicitation (intensity of rain: rain), simulates flood by applying the KINEROS2 model and observing the quantity of water flowing at the outflow of the system (flood hydrograph or rainfall).

How Qualitative Methods Can be Used to Inform Model Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Husbands, Samantha; Jowett, Susan; Barton, Pelham; Coast, Joanna

2017-06-01

Decision-analytic models play a key role in informing healthcare resource allocation decisions. However, there are ongoing concerns with the credibility of models. Modelling methods guidance can encourage good practice within model development, but its value is dependent on its ability to address the areas that modellers find most challenging. Further, it is important that modelling methods and related guidance are continually updated in light of any new approaches that could potentially enhance model credibility. The objective of this article was to highlight the ways in which qualitative methods have been used and recommended to inform decision-analytic model development and enhance modelling practices. With reference to the literature, the article discusses two key ways in which qualitative methods can be, and have been, applied. The first approach involves using qualitative methods to understand and inform general and future processes of model development, and the second, using qualitative techniques to directly inform the development of individual models. The literature suggests that qualitative methods can improve the validity and credibility of modelling processes by providing a means to understand existing modelling approaches that identifies where problems are occurring and further guidance is needed. It can also be applied within model development to facilitate the input of experts to structural development. We recommend that current and future model development would benefit from the greater integration of qualitative methods, specifically by studying 'real' modelling processes, and by developing recommendations around how qualitative methods can be adopted within everyday modelling practice.

Development of an artificial neural network model integrated with constitutive and FEM models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kong, L.X.; Hodgson, P.D.

2000-01-01

Although the standard error of IPANN model developed by Kong and Hodgson is lower than the constitutive model, it is found that the prediction of reaction force and torque during rolling with FEM is less accurate for IPANN model in some deformation regions. It is the summation of the product of the strain and stress in the deformation range, which contributes most to the precise prediction. An ANN model is therefore, developed in this work by integrating both the IPANN and FEM models. It is found that the integrated IPANN and FEM model is the most accurate model. (author)

Enabling Accessibility Through Model-Based User Interface Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Ziegler, Daniel; Peissner, Matthias

2017-01-01

Adaptive user interfaces (AUIs) can increase the accessibility of interactive systems. They provide personalized display and interaction modes to fit individual user needs. Most AUI approaches rely on model-based development, which is considered relatively demanding. This paper explores strategies to make model-based development more attractive for mainstream developers.

Models and automation technologies for the curriculum development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. N. Volkova

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the research was to determine the sequence of the curriculum development stages on the basis of the system analysis, as well as to create models and information technologies for the implementation of thesestages.The methods and the models of the systems’ theory and the system analysis, including methods and automated procedures for structuring organizational aims, models and automated procedures for organizing complex expertise.On the basis of the analysis of existing studies in the field of curriculum modeling, using formal mathematical language, including optimization models, that help to make distribution of disciplines by years and semesters in accordance with the relevant restrictions, it is shown, that the complexity and dimension of these tasks require the development of special software; the problem of defining the input data and restrictions requires a large time investment, that seems to be difficult to provide in real conditions of plans’ developing, thus it is almost impossible to verify the objectivity of the input data and the restrictions in such models. For a complete analysis of the process of curriculum development it is proposed to use the system definition, based on the system-targeted approach. On the basis of this definition the reasonable sequence of the integrated stages for the development of the curriculum was justified: 1 definition (specification of the requirements for the educational content; 2 determining the number of subjects, included in the curriculum; 3 definition of the sequence of the subjects; 4 distribution of subjects by semesters. The models and technologies for the implementation of these stages of curriculum development were given in the article: 1 models, based on the information approach of A.Denisov and the modified degree of compliance with objectives based on Denisov’s evaluation index (in the article the idea of evaluating the degree of the impact of disciplines for realization

Development of three dimensional solid modeler

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zahoor, R.M.A.

1999-01-01

The work presented in this thesis is aimed at developing a three dimensional solid modeler employing computer graphics techniques using C-Language. Primitives have been generated, by combination of plane surfaces, for various basic geometrical shapes including cylinder, cube and cone. Back face removal technique for hidden surface removal has also been incorporated. Various transformation techniques such as scaling, translation, and rotation have been included for the object animation. Three dimensional solid modeler has been created by the union of two primitives to demonstrate the capabilities of the developed program. (author)

Assessment of bioclimatic comfort conditions based on Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) using the RayMan Model in Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Daneshvar, Mohammad Reza Mansouri; Bagherzadeh, Ali; Tavousi, Taghi

2013-03-01

In this study thermal comfort conditions are analyzed to determine possible thermal perceptions during different months in Iran through the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET). The monthly PET values produced using the RayMan Model ranged from -7.6°C to 46.8°C. Over the winter months the thermal comfort condition (18-23°C) were concentrated in southern coastal areas along the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea. Most of the country experienced comfort conditions during the spring months, in particular in April, while during the summer months of July and August no thermal comfort conditions were observed. In November coastal areas of the Caspian Sea had the same physiological stress level of thermal comfort as April. The map produced showing mean annual PET conditions demonstrated the greatest spatial distribution of comfortable levels in the elevation range from 1000 to 2000 meter a.s.l., with annual temperatures of 12-20°C and annual precipitation of under 200 mm. The statistical relationship between PET conditions and each controlling parameter revealed a significant correlation in areas above 2000 meter, annual temperature over 20°C and annual precipitation of 200-400 mm with a correlation coefficient ( R 2) of 0.91, 0.97 and 0.96, respectively.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT MODELS

OpenAIRE

Sandeep Kaur*

2017-01-01

No geek is unfamiliar with the concept of software development life cycle (SDLC). This research deals with the various SDLC models covering waterfall, spiral, and iterative, agile, V-shaped, prototype model. In the modern era, all the software systems are fallible as they can’t stand with certainty. So, it is tried to compare all aspects of the various models, their pros and cons so that it could be easy to choose a particular model at the time of need

Developing a Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Model Knowledgebase in Support of Provisional Model Construction

Science.gov (United States)

Grulke, Christopher M.; Chang, Daniel T.; Brooks, Raina D.; Leonard, Jeremy A.; Phillips, Martin B.; Hypes, Ethan D.; Fair, Matthew J.; Tornero-Velez, Rogelio; Johnson, Jeffre; Dary, Curtis C.; Tan, Yu-Mei

2016-01-01

Developing physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for chemicals can be resource-intensive, as neither chemical-specific parameters nor in vivo pharmacokinetic data are easily available for model construction. Previously developed, well-parameterized, and thoroughly-vetted models can be a great resource for the construction of models pertaining to new chemicals. A PBPK knowledgebase was compiled and developed from existing PBPK-related articles and used to develop new models. From 2,039 PBPK-related articles published between 1977 and 2013, 307 unique chemicals were identified for use as the basis of our knowledgebase. Keywords related to species, gender, developmental stages, and organs were analyzed from the articles within the PBPK knowledgebase. A correlation matrix of the 307 chemicals in the PBPK knowledgebase was calculated based on pharmacokinetic-relevant molecular descriptors. Chemicals in the PBPK knowledgebase were ranked based on their correlation toward ethylbenzene and gefitinib. Next, multiple chemicals were selected to represent exact matches, close analogues, or non-analogues of the target case study chemicals. Parameters, equations, or experimental data relevant to existing models for these chemicals and their analogues were used to construct new models, and model predictions were compared to observed values. This compiled knowledgebase provides a chemical structure-based approach for identifying PBPK models relevant to other chemical entities. Using suitable correlation metrics, we demonstrated that models of chemical analogues in the PBPK knowledgebase can guide the construction of PBPK models for other chemicals. PMID:26871706

System model development for nuclear thermal propulsion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walton, J.T.; Perkins, K.R.; Buksa, J.J.; Worley, B.A.; Dobranich, D.

1992-01-01

A critical enabling technology in the evolutionary development of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) is the ability to predict the system performance under a variety of operating conditions. Since October 1991, US (DOE), (DOD) and NASA have initiated critical technology development efforts for NTP systems to be used on Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) missions to the Moon and Mars. This paper presents the strategy and progress of an interagency NASA/DOE/DOD team for NTP system modeling. It is the intent of the interagency team to develop several levels of computer programs to simulate various NTP systems. An interagency team was formed for this task to use the best capabilities available and to assure appropriate peer review. The vision and strategy of the interagency team for developing NTP system models will be discussed in this paper. A review of the progress on the Level 1 interagency model is also presented

Potential change in forest types and stand heights in central Siberia in a warming climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tchebakova, N M; Parfenova, E I; Korets, M A; Conard, S G

2016-01-01

Previous regional studies in Siberia have demonstrated climate warming and associated changes in distribution of vegetation and forest types, starting at the end of the 20th century. In this study we used two regional bioclimatic envelope models to simulate potential changes in forest types distribution and developed new regression models to simulate changes in stand height in tablelands and southern mountains of central Siberia under warming 21st century climate. Stand height models were based on forest inventory data (2850 plots). The forest type and stand height maps were superimposed to identify how heights would change in different forest types in future climates. Climate projections from the general circulation model Hadley HadCM3 for emission scenarios B1 and A2 for 2080s were paired with the regional bioclimatic models. Under the harsh A2 scenario, simulated changes included: a 80%–90% decrease in forest-tundra and tundra, a 30% decrease in forest area, a ∼400% increase in forest-steppe, and a 2200% increase in steppe, forest-steppe and steppe would cover 55% of central Siberia. Under sufficiently moist conditions, the southern and middle taiga were simulated to benefit from 21st century climate warming. Habitats suitable for highly-productive forests (≥30–40 m stand height) were simulated to increase at the expense of less productive forests (10–20 m). In response to the more extreme A2 climate the area of these highly-productive forests would increase 10%–25%. Stand height increases of 10 m were simulated over 35%–50% of the current forest area in central Siberia. In the extremely warm A2 climate scenario, the tall trees (25–30 m) would occur over 8%–12% of area in all forest types except forest-tundra by the end of the century. In forest-steppe, trees of 30–40 m may cover some 15% of the area under sufficient moisture. (letter)

Simulation modelling: educational development roles for learning technologists

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Riley

2002-12-01

Full Text Available Simulation modelling was in the mainstream of CAL development in the 1980s when the late David Squires introduced this author to the Dynamic Modelling System. Since those early days, it seems that simulation modelling has drifted into a learning technology backwater to become a member of Laurillard's underutilized, 'adaptive and productive' media. Referring to her Conversational Framework, Laurillard constructs a pedagogic case for modelling as a productive student activity but provides few references to current practice and available resources. This paper seeks to complement her account by highlighting the pioneering initiatives of the Computers in the Curriculum Project and more recent developments in systems modelling within geographic and business education. The latter include improvements to system dynamics modelling programs such as STELLA®, the publication of introductory textbooks, and the emergence of online resources. The paper indicates several ways in which modelling activities may be approached and identifies some educational development roles for learning technologists. The paper concludes by advocating simulation modelling as an exemplary use of learning technologies - one that realizes their creative-transformative potential.

Modelling Template for the Development of the Process Flowsheet

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fedorova, Marina; Gani, Rafiqul

2015-01-01

Models are playing important roles in design and analysis of chemicals/bio-chemicals based products and the processes that manufacture them. Model-based methods and tools have the potential to decrease the number of experiments, which can be expensive and time consuming, and point to candidates...... in connection to other modelling tools within the modelling framework are forming a user-friendly system, which will make the model development process easier and faster and provide the way for unified and consistent model documentation. The modeller can use the template for their specific problem or to extend...... models systematically, efficiently and reliably. In this way, development of products and processes can be faster, cheaper and very efficient. The developed modelling framework involves three main parts: 1) a modelling tool, that includes algorithms for model generation; 2) a template library, which...

Development of a solar cell model using PSCAD

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramos, Sergio [Polytecnic of Porto (Portugal). GECAD - ISEP; Pinto, Sonia F.; Santana, Joao J. [Instituto Superior Tecnico, Lisbon (Portugal). Dept. de Engenharia Electrotecnica e de Computadores

2012-07-01

This paper presents the development of a solar photovoltaic (PV) model in an electromagnetic transient software environment PSCAD/EMTDC - Power System Computer Aided Design - including a mathematical model study. The implemented model can be used for simulation studies of grid interface application. An additional algorithm has been implemented in MATLAB software in order to calculate several parameters required by the PSCAD developed model. All the simulation study has been performed in PSCAD/MATLAB software simulation tool. (orig.)

A Study On Traditional And Evolutionary Software Development Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kamran Rasheed

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Today Computing technologies are becoming the pioneers of the organizations and helpful in individual functionality i.e. added to computing device we need to add softwares. Set of instruction or computer program is known as software. The development of software is done through some traditional or some new or evolutionary models. Software development is becoming a key and a successful business nowadays. Without software all hardware is useless. Some collective steps that are performed in the development of these are known as Software development life cycle SDLC. There are some adaptive and predictive models for developing software. Predictive mean already known like WATERFALL Spiral Prototype and V-shaped models while Adaptive model include agile Scrum. All methodologies of both adaptive and predictive have their own procedure and steps. Predictive are Static and Adaptive are dynamic mean change cannot be made to the predictive while adaptive have the capability of changing. The purpose of this study is to get familiar with all these and discuss their uses and steps of development. This discussion will be helpful in deciding which model they should use in which circumstance and what are the development step including in each model.

Developments in regional scale simulation: modelling ecologically sustainable development in the Northern Territory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moffatt, I.

1992-01-01

This paper outlines one way in which researchers can make a positive methodological contribution to the debate on ecologically sustainable development (ESD) by integrating dynamic modelling and geographical information systems to form the basis for regional scale simulations. Some of the orthodox uses of Geographic Information System (GIS) are described and it is argued that most applications do not incorporate process based causal models. A description of a pilot study into developing a processed base model of ESD in the Northern Territory is given. This dynamic process based simulation model consists of two regions namely the 'Top End' and the 'Central' district. Each region consists of ten sub-sectors and the pattern of land use represents a common sector to both regions. The role of environmental defence expenditure, including environmental rehabilitation of uranium mines, in the model is noted. Similarly, it is hypothesized that the impact of exogenous changes such as the greenhouse effect and global economic fluctuations can have a differential impact on the behaviour of several sectors of the model. Some of the problems associated with calibrating and testing the model are reviewed. Finally, it is suggested that further refinement of this model can be achieved with the pooling of data sets and the development of PC based transputers for more detailed and accurate regional scale simulations. When fully developed it is anticipated that this pilot model can be of service to environmental managers and other groups involved in promoting ESD in the Northern Territory. 54 refs., 6 figs

Embedded systems development from functional models to implementations

CERN Document Server

Zeng, Haibo; Natale, Marco; Marwedel, Peter

2014-01-01

This book offers readers broad coverage of techniques to model, verify and validate the behavior and performance of complex distributed embedded systems.  The authors attempt to bridge the gap between the three disciplines of model-based design, real-time analysis and model-driven development, for a better understanding of the ways in which new development flows can be constructed, going from system-level modeling to the correct and predictable generation of a distributed implementation, leveraging current and future research results.     Describes integration of heterogeneous models; Discusses synthesis of task model implementations and code implementations; Compares model-based design vs. model-driven approaches; Explains how to enforce correctness by construction in the functional and time domains; Includes optimization techniques for control performance.

Progress in integrated energy-economy-environment model system development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yasukawa, Shigeru; Mankin, Shuichi; Sato, Osamu; Tadokoro, Yoshihiro; Nakano, Yasuyuki; Nagano, Takao

1987-11-01

The Integrated Energy-Economy-Environment Model System has been developed for providing analytical tools for the system analysis and technology assessments in the field of nuclear research and development. This model system consists of the following four model groups. The first model block installs 5 models and can serve to analyze and generate long-term scenarios on economy-energy-environment evolution. The second model block installs 2 models and can serve to analyze the structural transition phenomena in energy-economy-environment interactions. The third model block installs 2 models and can handle power reactor installation strategy problem and long-term fuel cycle analysis. The fourth model block installs 5 models and codes and can treats cost-benefit-risk analysis and assessments. This report describes mainly the progress and the outlines of application of the model system in these years after the first report on the research and development of the model system (JAERI-M 84 - 139). (author)

What Develops in Moral Development? A Model of Moral Sensibility

Science.gov (United States)

Sherblom, Stephen A.

2012-01-01

The field of moral psychology would benefit from an integrative model of what develops in moral development, contextualized within the larger scope of social science research. Moral sensibility is proposed as the best concept to embody stated aims, but the content of this concept must be more finely articulated and conceptualized as a dynamic…

Ecological niche modelling and nDNA sequencing support a new, morphologically cryptic beetle species unveiled by DNA barcoding.

Science.gov (United States)

Hawlitschek, Oliver; Porch, Nick; Hendrich, Lars; Balke, Michael

2011-02-09

DNA sequencing techniques used to estimate biodiversity, such as DNA barcoding, may reveal cryptic species. However, disagreements between barcoding and morphological data have already led to controversy. Species delimitation should therefore not be based on mtDNA alone. Here, we explore the use of nDNA and bioclimatic modelling in a new species of aquatic beetle revealed by mtDNA sequence data. The aquatic beetle fauna of Australia is characterised by high degrees of endemism, including local radiations such as the genus Antiporus. Antiporus femoralis was previously considered to exist in two disjunct, but morphologically indistinguishable populations in south-western and south-eastern Australia. We constructed a phylogeny of Antiporus and detected a deep split between these populations. Diagnostic characters from the highly variable nuclear protein encoding arginine kinase gene confirmed the presence of two isolated populations. We then used ecological niche modelling to examine the climatic niche characteristics of the two populations. All results support the status of the two populations as distinct species. We describe the south-western species as Antiporus occidentalis sp.n. In addition to nDNA sequence data and extended use of mitochondrial sequences, ecological niche modelling has great potential for delineating morphologically cryptic species.

Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krakowski, R.A.

1999-01-01

The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E 3 ) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term (approximately2,100) context. The E 3 model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E 3 area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E 3 model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E 3 model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E 3 study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E 3 model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project

Development of a realistic human airway model.

Science.gov (United States)

Lizal, Frantisek; Elcner, Jakub; Hopke, Philip K; Jedelsky, Jan; Jicha, Miroslav

2012-03-01

Numerous models of human lungs with various levels of idealization have been reported in the literature; consequently, results acquired using these models are difficult to compare to in vivo measurements. We have developed a set of model components based on realistic geometries, which permits the analysis of the effects of subsequent model simplification. A realistic digital upper airway geometry except for the lack of an oral cavity has been created which proved suitable both for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and for the fabrication of physical models. Subsequently, an oral cavity was added to the tracheobronchial geometry. The airway geometry including the oral cavity was adjusted to enable fabrication of a semi-realistic model. Five physical models were created based on these three digital geometries. Two optically transparent models, one with and one without the oral cavity, were constructed for flow velocity measurements, two realistic segmented models, one with and one without the oral cavity, were constructed for particle deposition measurements, and a semi-realistic model with glass cylindrical airways was developed for optical measurements of flow velocity and in situ particle size measurements. One-dimensional phase doppler anemometry measurements were made and compared to the CFD calculations for this model and good agreement was obtained.

Further development of the coupling model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kreuser, A.; Stiller, J.C.; Peschke, J.

2006-01-01

Uncertainties arising from different sources have to be considered for the quantification of common cause failures (CCFs). At GRS a CCF model (coupling model) has been developed for the estimation of CCF probabilities. An essential feature of the coupling model is the consideration of these uncertainties by using Bayesian estimation methods. Experiences from applying the coupling model to CCF event data over several years and analyzing the results in detail has led to improvements in the application of the model. In this paper the improved methodology of the coupling model is presented. Special emphasis is given to the description of the sources of uncertainties which are considered in the coupling model and the mathematical methodology, how these uncertainties are represented and propagated through the model. In closing topics of future improvements of the coupling models are discussed. (orig.)

MVP: A Volunteer Development & Recognition Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerhard, Gary W.

This model was developed to provide a systematic, staged approach to volunteer personnel management. It provides a general process for dealing with volunteers from the point of organization entry through volunteer career stages to the time of exiting the organization. The model provides the structural components necessary to (1) plan, coordinate,…

Development modeling of Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amanda Roe

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The relationship between insect development and temperature has been well established and has a wide range of uses, including the use of blow flies for postmortem (PMI interval estimations in death investigations. To use insects in estimating PMI, we must be able to determine the insect age at the time of discovery and backtrack to time of oviposition. Unfortunately, existing development models of forensically important insects are only linear approximations and do not take into account the curvilinear properties experienced at extreme temperatures. A series of experiments were conducted with Lucilia sericata, a forensically important blow fly species, that met the requirements needed to create statistically valid development models. Experiments were conducted over 11 temperatures (7.5 to 32.5 °C, at 2.5 °C with a 16:8 L:D cycle. Experimental units contained 20 eggs, 10 g beef liver, and 2.5 cm of pine shavings. Each life stage (egg to adult had five sampling times. Each sampling time was replicated four times, for a total of 20 measurements per life stage. For each sampling time, the cups were pulled from the chambers and the stage of each maggot was documented morphologically through posterior spiracle slits and cephalopharyngeal skeletal development. Data were normally distributed with the later larval stages (L3f, L3m having the most variation within and transitioning between stages. The biological minimum was between 7.5 °C and 10 °C, with little egg development and no egg emergence at 7.5 °C. Temperature-induced mortality was highest from 10.0 to 17.5 °C and 32.5 °C. The development data generated illustrates the advantages of large datasets in modeling Lucilia sericata development and the need for curvilinear models in describing development at environmental temperatures near the biological minima and maxima.

VEMAP phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA

Science.gov (United States)

Timothy G.F. Kittel; Nan. A. Rosenbloom; J.A. Royle; C. Daly; W.P. Gibson; H.H. Fisher; P. Thornton; D.N. Yates; S. Aulenbach; C. Kaufman; R. McKeown; Dominque. Bachelet; David S. Schimel

2004-01-01

Analysis and simulation of biospheric responses to historical forcing require surface climate data that capture those aspects of climate that control ecological processes, including key spatial gradients and modes of temporal variability. We developed a multivariate, gridded historical climate dataset for the conterminous USA as a common input database for the...

Development and application of air quality models at the US ...

Science.gov (United States)

Overview of the development and application of air quality models at the U.S. EPA, particularly focused on the development and application of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed within the Computation Exposure Division (CED) of the National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL). This presentation will provide a simple overview of air quality model development and application geared toward a non-technical student audience. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

Developing Phenomena Models from Experimental Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Niels Rode; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

2003-01-01

A systematic approach for developing phenomena models from experimental data is presented. The approach is based on integrated application of stochastic differential equation (SDE) modelling and multivariate nonparametric regression, and it is shown how these techniques can be used to uncover...... unknown functionality behind various phenomena in first engineering principles models using experimental data. The proposed modelling approach has significant application potential, e.g. for determining unknown reaction kinetics in both chemical and biological processes. To illustrate the performance...... of the approach, a case study is presented, which shows how an appropriate phenomena model for the growth rate of biomass in a fed-batch bioreactor can be inferred from data....

Developing Phenomena Models from Experimental Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

A systematic approach for developing phenomena models from experimental data is presented. The approach is based on integrated application of stochastic differential equation (SDE) modelling and multivariate nonparametric regression, and it is shown how these techniques can be used to uncover...... unknown functionality behind various phenomena in first engineering principles models using experimental data. The proposed modelling approach has significant application potential, e.g. for determining unknown reaction kinetics in both chemical and biological processes. To illustrate the performance...... of the approach, a case study is presented, which shows how an appropriate phenomena model for the growth rate of biomass in a fed-batch bioreactor can be inferred from data....

The Waterfall Model in Large-Scale Development

Science.gov (United States)

Petersen, Kai; Wohlin, Claes; Baca, Dejan

Waterfall development is still a widely used way of working in software development companies. Many problems have been reported related to the model. Commonly accepted problems are for example to cope with change and that defects all too often are detected too late in the software development process. However, many of the problems mentioned in literature are based on beliefs and experiences, and not on empirical evidence. To address this research gap, we compare the problems in literature with the results of a case study at Ericsson AB in Sweden, investigating issues in the waterfall model. The case study aims at validating or contradicting the beliefs of what the problems are in waterfall development through empirical research.

Construction of UML class diagram with Model-Driven Development

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Tomasz Górski

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Model transformations play a key role in software development projects based on Model--Driven Development (MDD principles. Transformations allow for automation of repetitive and well-defined steps, thus shortening design time and reducing a number of errors. In the object-oriented approach, the key elements are use cases. They are described, modelled and later designed until executable application code is obtained. The aim of the paper is to present transformation of a model-to-model type, Communication-2-Class, which automates construction of Unified Modelling Language (UML class diagram in the context of the analysis/design model. An UML class diagram is created based on UML communication diagram within use case realization. As a result, a class diagram shows all of the classes involved in the use case realization and the relationships among them. The plug-in which implements Communication-2-Class transformation was implemented in the IBM Rational Software Architect. The article presents the tests results of developed plug-in, which realizes Communication-2-Class transformation, showing capabilities of shortening use case realization’s design time.[b]Keywords[/b]: Model-Driven Development, transformations, Unified Modelling Language, analysis/design model, UML class diagram, UML communication diagram

Biothermal conditions on Mt. Zlatibor based on thermophysiological indices

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Pecelj Milica

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents part of the research in the field of human bioclimatology and refers to biothermal conditions in different geographical environments in Serbia: an urban area and a mountain of medium height. The goal of the paper was to show bioclimatic differences during the summer between the city of Belgrade (116 m a.s.l. and the mountain resort of Zlatibor (1498 m a.s.l.. The basic principle of bioclimatic analysis is the human heat balance between man and environment. This methodological approach is a combination of physiological and meteorological parameters that result in thermophysiological bioclimatic indices: heat load (HL in man and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI. For this analysis, weather data for July, as the warmest month, was obtained, using daily meteorological data for the decade from 2000 to 2010. Results for July indicate a considerable difference between the two abovementioned environments. HL in Belgrade was dominated by degrees of comfort “hot” and “extremely hot, with the highest value of 4.540, while for Zlatibor the dominant degree of comfort was “warm”. The UTCI in Belgrade has dominated by strong heat stress and moderate heat stress, compared to Zlatibor where the UTCI is dominated by moderate heat stress. In addition, a significant part of the monitored decade on Mt. Zlatibor was without heat stress, with the exception of 2006 and 2007, indicating favorable biothermal characteristics. Therefore, compared to Belgrade, with its considerably lower overall heat stress Zlatibor has the characteristics of a site with favorable bioclimatic qualities.

The Balance Model of Regional Development Management in Certain Territorial Conditions: Development and Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Voloshenko K.

2014-09-01

Full Text Available In this article the authors detail the methodology of regional development forecasting with the balance method. They provide with an overview and assessment of the existing models and systems, and their use for the purposes of public administration at the regional level. The article underlines the need to develop a balance approach models for specific territorial conditions. In particular, the authors identify the possibilities of studying the connections between the proportions of material and cash flows within the regional system, and reconciling the needs of a regional economy with the production and resource potentials. The long-term sustainability balance model – a simulation of event-based forecasting – has been developed for the Russian exclave. The authors provide a general description of the balance model, its elements and simulation algorithm. The results of calculations using the balance model for forecasting regional development are provided for three alternative scenarios for the Kaliningrad region for the period until 2018.

Accident sequence precursor analysis level 2/3 model development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lui, C.H.; Galyean, W.J.; Brownson, D.A.

1997-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program currently uses simple Level 1 models to assess the conditional core damage probability for operational events occurring in commercial nuclear power plants (NPP). Since not all accident sequences leading to core damage will result in the same radiological consequences, it is necessary to develop simple Level 2/3 models that can be used to analyze the response of the NPP containment structure in the context of a core damage accident, estimate the magnitude of the resulting radioactive releases to the environment, and calculate the consequences associated with these releases. The simple Level 2/3 model development work was initiated in 1995, and several prototype models have been completed. Once developed, these simple Level 2/3 models are linked to the simple Level 1 models to provide risk perspectives for operational events. This paper describes the methods implemented for the development of these simple Level 2/3 ASP models, and the linkage process to the existing Level 1 models

Sodium-concrete reaction model development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nguyen, D.H.; Muhlestein, L.D.; Postma, A.K.

1982-07-01

Major observations have been formulated after reviewing test results for over 100 sodium-concrete reaction tests. The observations form the basis for developing a mechanistic model to predict the transient behavior of sodium-concrete reactions. The major observations are listed. Mechanisms associated with sodium and water transport to the reaction zone are identified, and represented by appropriate mathematical expressions. The model attempts to explain large-scale, long-term (100 h) test results were sodium-concrete reactions terminated even in the presence of unreacted sodium and concrete

Development of irradiated UO2 thermal conductivity model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Chan Bock; Bang Je-Geon; Kim Dae Ho; Jung Youn Ho

2001-01-01

Thermal conductivity model of the irradiated UO 2 pellet was developed, based upon the thermal diffusivity data of the irradiated UO 2 pellet measured during thermal cycling. The model predicts the thermal conductivity by multiplying such separate correction factors as solid fission products, gaseous fission products, radiation damage and porosity. The developed model was validated by comparison with the variation of the measured thermal diffusivity data during thermal cycling and prediction of other UO 2 thermal conductivity models. Since the developed model considers the effect of gaseous fission products as a separate factor, it can predict variation of thermal conductivity in the rim region of high burnup UO 2 pellet where the fission gases in the matrix are precipitated into bubbles, indicating that decrease of thermal conductivity by bubble precipitation in rim region would be significantly compensated by the enhancing effect of fission gas depletion in the UO 2 matrix. (author)

MODELING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ARCTIC REGION OF RUSSIA

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K. N. Kikkas

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article describes a model of six econometric equations, designed for the analysis of the sustainability of development in the Arctic region of the Russian Federation - Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. The article analyzes the spheres of human activity in the Chukchi Autonomous District: social, industrial, natural resources. Each sphere is estimated indicators. The theoretical views of various researchers on sustainable development and defi nes the concept of sustainable development of the spheres of human activity in the Arctic region. Under the sustainable development of the Arctic region of space refers to such changes in the indices of spheres of human activity in the region, which increase the potential for human development. The numerical value of the potential of human development is estimated Human Development Index. The article describes the methodological principles of constructing a model of six equations econometric analysis of the sustainable development of the Arctic region. Each of the six equations presented in the form of ADL-model, because it allows us to estimate the dependence of ADL values of the spheres of human activity in the region from the current and past values of the series of other indicators. Selected endogenous and exogenous variables for the model. We discuss the algorithm for fi nding the model parameters. On the basis of the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug are six coeffi cients of econometric equations. The analysis of the results of the decision model. Methodological principles and results of the decision model can be used to develop strategies for sustainable development of the municipality, a separate Arctic, or a combination of all the Arctic regions of Russia.

Using a down-scaled bioclimate envelope model to determine long-term temporal connectivity of Garry oak (Quercus garryana) habitat in western North America: implications for protected area planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Pellatt, Marlow G; Goring, Simon J; Bodtker, Karin M; Cannon, Alex J

2012-04-01

Under the Canadian Species at Risk Act (SARA), Garry oak (Quercus garryana) ecosystems are listed as "at-risk" and act as an umbrella for over one hundred species that are endangered to some degree. Understanding Garry oak responses to future climate scenarios at scales relevant to protected area managers is essential to effectively manage existing protected area networks and to guide the selection of temporally connected migration corridors, additional protected areas, and to maintain Garry oak populations over the next century. We present Garry oak distribution scenarios using two random forest models calibrated with down-scaled bioclimatic data for British Columbia, Washington, and Oregon based on 1961-1990 climate normals. The suitability models are calibrated using either both precipitation and temperature variables or using only temperature variables. We compare suitability predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCMs) and present CGCM2 model results under two emissions scenarios. For each GCM and emissions scenario we apply the two Garry oak suitability models and use the suitability models to determine the extent and temporal connectivity of climatically suitable Garry oak habitat within protected areas from 2010 to 2099. The suitability models indicate that while 164 km(2) of the total protected area network in the region (47,990 km(2)) contains recorded Garry oak presence, 1635 and 1680 km(2) of climatically suitable Garry oak habitat is currently under some form of protection. Of this suitable protected area, only between 6.6 and 7.3% will be "temporally connected" between 2010 and 2099 based on the CGCM2 model. These results highlight the need for public and private protected area organizations to work cooperatively in the development of corridors to maintain temporal connectivity in climatically suitable areas for the future of Garry oak ecosystems.

Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-05-01

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets.

Science.gov (United States)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-05-01

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha -1  h -1  yr -1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

Risk Zones of Human Leishmaniases in the Western Mediterranean Basin: Correlations between Vector Sand Flies, Bioclimatology and Phytosociology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philippe Rispail

2002-06-01

Full Text Available Correspondence analysis was applied to sand fly sampling in 865 stations from the Western Mediterranean basin. The position of each of 24 species was determined with respect to the bioclimatic belts. Thus, the multidimensional analyses manifest clear correlations between bioclimatic belts and their expression in the area, the phytosociological groupings, and vector species of visceral and cutaneous leishmaniases. The transfer of these data to usual maps allows to delimit the geographical distribution of these diseases in the Western Mediterranean basin and contributes to the determination, in a rational manner, of the high risk zones.

Development Model for Research Infrastructures

Science.gov (United States)

Wächter, Joachim; Hammitzsch, Martin; Kerschke, Dorit; Lauterjung, Jörn

2015-04-01

. The maturity of individual scientific domains differs considerably. • Technologically and organisationally many different RI components have to be integrated. Individual systems are often complex and have a long-term history. Existing approaches are on different maturity levels, e.g. in relation to the standardisation of interfaces. • The concrete implementation process consists of independent and often parallel development activities. In many cases no detailed architectural blue-print for the envisioned system exists. • Most of the funding currently available for RI implementation is provided on a project basis. To increase the synergies in infrastructure development the authors propose a specific RI Maturity Model (RIMM) that is specifically qualified for open system-of-system environments. RIMM is based on the concepts of Capability Maturity Models for organisational development, concretely the Levels of Conceptual Interoperability Model (LCIM) specifying the technical, syntactical, semantic, pragmatic, dynamic, and conceptual layers of interoperation [1]. The model is complemented by the identification and integration of growth factors (according to the Nolan Stages Theory [2]). These factors include supply and demand factors. Supply factors comprise available resources, e.g., data, services and IT-management capabilities including organisations and IT-personal. Demand factors are the overall application portfolio for RIs but also the skills and requirements of scientists and communities using the infrastructure. RIMM thus enables a balanced development process of RI and RI components by evaluating the status of the supply and demand factors in relation to specific levels of interoperability. [1] Tolk, A., Diallo, A., Turnitsa, C. (2007): Applying the Levels of Conceptual Interoperability Model in Support of Integratability, Interoperability, and Composability for System-of-Systems Engineering. Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics, Volume 5 - Number 5. [2

Model based development of engine control algorithms

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dekker, H.J.; Sturm, W.L.

1996-01-01

Model based development of engine control systems has several advantages. The development time and costs are strongly reduced because much of the development and optimization work is carried out by simulating both engine and control system. After optimizing the control algorithm it can be executed

Downscaling of Open Coarse Precipitation Data through Spatial and Statistical Analysis, Integrating NDVI, NDWI, Elevation, and Distance from Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hicham Ezzine

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This study aims to improve the statistical spatial downscaling of coarse precipitation (TRMM 3B43 product and also to explore its limitations in the Mediterranean area. It was carried out in Morocco and was based on an open dataset including four predictors (NDVI, NDWI, DEM, and distance from sea that explain TRMM 3B43 product. For this purpose, four groups of models were established based on different combinations of the four predictors, in order to compare from one side NDVI and NDWI based models and the other side stepwise with multiple regression. The models that have given rise to the best approximations and best fits were used to downscale TRMM 3B43 product. The resulting downscaled and calibrated precipitations were validated by independent RGS. Aside from that, the limitations of the proposed approach were assessed in five bioclimatic stages. Furthermore, the influence of the sea was analyzed in five classes of distance. The findings showed that the models built using NDVI and NDWI have a high correlation and therefore can be used to downscale precipitation. The integration of elevation and distance improved the correlation models. According to R2, RMSE, bias, and MAE, the study revealed that there is a great agreement between downscaled precipitations and RGS measurements. In addition, the analysis showed that the contribution of the variable (distance from sea is evident around the coastal area and decreases progressively. Likewise, the study demonstrated that the approach performs well in humid and arid bioclimatic stages compared to others.

3D physical modeling for patterning process development

Science.gov (United States)

Sarma, Chandra; Abdo, Amr; Bailey, Todd; Conley, Will; Dunn, Derren; Marokkey, Sajan; Talbi, Mohamed

2010-03-01

In this paper we will demonstrate how a 3D physical patterning model can act as a forensic tool for OPC and ground-rule development. We discuss examples where the 2D modeling shows no issues in printing gate lines but 3D modeling shows severe resist loss in the middle. In absence of corrective measure, there is a high likelihood of line discontinuity post etch. Such early insight into process limitations of prospective ground rules can be invaluable for early technology development. We will also demonstrate how the root cause of broken poly-line after etch could be traced to resist necking in the region of STI step with the help of 3D models. We discuss different cases of metal and contact layouts where 3D modeling gives an early insight in to technology limitations. In addition such a 3D physical model could be used for early resist evaluation and selection for required ground-rule challenges, which can substantially reduce the cycle time for process development.

Timing and duration of autumn leaf development in Sweden

Science.gov (United States)

Bolmgren, Kjell

2014-05-01

The growing season is changing in both ends and autumn phases seem to be responding in more diverse ways than spring events. Indeed, we know little about autumn leaf phenological strategies and how they are correlated with fitness components or ecosystem properties, and how they vary between species and over bioclimatic gradients. In this study more than 10 000 students were involved in observing autumn leaf development at 378 sites all over Sweden (55-68°N). They followed an image based observation protocol classifying autumn leaf development into five levels, from summer green (level 0) to 100% autumn leaf colored (level 4) canopy. In total, they submitted almost 12 000 observations between August 9 and November 15. 75% of the observations were made on the common species of Populus tremula, Betula pendula/pubescens and Sorbus aucuparia. The expected (negative) correlation between latitude and start of leaf senescence (level 2) was found in Populus and Betula, but not in Sorbus. The duration of the leaf senescence period, defined as the period between 1/3 (level 2) and 100% (level 4) of the canopy autumn leaf colored, was negatively correlated with latitude in Populus and Betula, but not in Sorbus. There was also a strong (negative) correlation of the start (level 2) and the duration of the leaf senescence in the early senescing Sorbus and Betula, while this effect was weaker in the late senescing Populus.

Infrastructure development assistance modeling for nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, J. H.; Hwang, K.; Park, K. M.; Kim, S. W.; Lee, S. M.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to develop a model, a general frame to be utilized in assisting newcomer countries to start a nuclear power program. A nuclear power plant project involves technical complexity and high level of investment with long duration. Considering newcomers are mostly developing countries that lack the national infrastructure, key infrastructure issues may constitute the principal constraints to the development of a nuclear power program. In this regard, it is important to provide guidance and support to set up an appropriate infrastructure when we help them with the first launch of nuclear power plant project. To date, as a sole nuclear power generation company, KHNP has been invited many times to mentor or assist newcomer countries for their successful start of a nuclear power program since Republic of Korea is an exemplary case of a developing country which began nuclear power program from scratch and became a major world nuclear energy country in a short period of time. Through hosting events organized to aid newcomer countries' initiation of nuclear power projects, difficulties have been recognized. Each event had different contents according to circumstances because they were held as an unstructured and one-off thing. By developing a general model, we can give more adequate and effective aid in an efficient way. In this paper, we created a model to identify necessary infrastructures at the right stage, which was mainly based on a case of Korea. Taking into account the assistance we received from foreign companies and our own efforts for technological self-reliance, we have developed a general time table and specified activities required to do at each stage. From a donor's perspective, we explored various ways to help nuclear infrastructure development including technical support programs, training courses, and participating in IAEA technical cooperation programs on a regular basis. If we further develop the model, the next task would be to

Infrastructure development assistance modeling for nuclear power plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, J. H.; Hwang, K.; Park, K. M.; Kim, S. W.; Lee, S. M. [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., LTD, 23, 106 gil, Yeongdong-daero, Gangnam-gu, 153-791 (Korea, Republic of)

2012-07-01

The purpose of this paper is to develop a model, a general frame to be utilized in assisting newcomer countries to start a nuclear power program. A nuclear power plant project involves technical complexity and high level of investment with long duration. Considering newcomers are mostly developing countries that lack the national infrastructure, key infrastructure issues may constitute the principal constraints to the development of a nuclear power program. In this regard, it is important to provide guidance and support to set up an appropriate infrastructure when we help them with the first launch of nuclear power plant project. To date, as a sole nuclear power generation company, KHNP has been invited many times to mentor or assist newcomer countries for their successful start of a nuclear power program since Republic of Korea is an exemplary case of a developing country which began nuclear power program from scratch and became a major world nuclear energy country in a short period of time. Through hosting events organized to aid newcomer countries' initiation of nuclear power projects, difficulties have been recognized. Each event had different contents according to circumstances because they were held as an unstructured and one-off thing. By developing a general model, we can give more adequate and effective aid in an efficient way. In this paper, we created a model to identify necessary infrastructures at the right stage, which was mainly based on a case of Korea. Taking into account the assistance we received from foreign companies and our own efforts for technological self-reliance, we have developed a general time table and specified activities required to do at each stage. From a donor's perspective, we explored various ways to help nuclear infrastructure development including technical support programs, training courses, and participating in IAEA technical cooperation programs on a regular basis. If we further develop the model, the next task

Scripting MODFLOW model development using Python and FloPy

Science.gov (United States)

Bakker, Mark; Post, Vincent E. A.; Langevin, Christian D.; Hughes, Joseph D.; White, Jeremy; Starn, Jeffrey; Fienen, Michael N.

2016-01-01

Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) are commonly used to construct and postprocess numerical groundwater flow and transport models. Scripting model development with the programming language Python is presented here as an alternative approach. One advantage of Python is that there are many packages available to facilitate the model development process, including packages for plotting, array manipulation, optimization, and data analysis. For MODFLOW-based models, the FloPy package was developed by the authors to construct model input files, run the model, and read and plot simulation results. Use of Python with the available scientific packages and FloPy facilitates data exploration, alternative model evaluations, and model analyses that can be difficult to perform with GUIs. Furthermore, Python scripts are a complete, transparent, and repeatable record of the modeling process. The approach is introduced with a simple FloPy example to create and postprocess a MODFLOW model. A more complicated capture-fraction analysis with a real-world model is presented to demonstrate the types of analyses that can be performed using Python and FloPy.

GRA/RIAM model development at Darlington Nuclear

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Plourde, J.; Parmar, R.

2006-01-01

In 2004, the Darlington Nuclear (DN) Plant of Ontario Power Generation (OPG) undertook a project, in partnership with Nuclear Safety Solutions (NSS) Limited, to develop Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) and Generation Risk Assessment (GRA) models. The models are intended to optimize plant decision-making. The objective of this paper is to present the scope of the project, the methodology employed, the results and the potential applications. DN has recognized the strategic importance of RIAM in the plant decision-making process and has begun its implementation. The required work was split into three phases. Phase 1 involved industry benchmarking, along with collection and review of the industry literature such as EPRI publications and other relevant papers. Based on the review, a description of the requirements to produce a prototype RIAM model was developed. Phase 2 consisted of the development of prototype RIAM and GRA models. Phase 3, currently underway, consists of the work required to translate the prototype models into an operational decision-making tool. RIAM and GRA are relatively new concepts hence the related methodology and the tools are still evolving. NSS has tailored the available methodology to suit the needs of the DN plant. Draft EPRI guides on GRA/RIAM were used in developing DN specific methodology. The details are provided in the paper. At DN, RIAM is expected to support business decisions by facilitating the assessment of risks associated with projects, programs and business case alternatives. These applications are further discussed in the paper. (author)

Towards Product Lining Model-Driven Development Code Generators

OpenAIRE

Roth, Alexander; Rumpe, Bernhard

2015-01-01

A code generator systematically transforms compact models to detailed code. Today, code generation is regarded as an integral part of model-driven development (MDD). Despite its relevance, the development of code generators is an inherently complex task and common methodologies and architectures are lacking. Additionally, reuse and extension of existing code generators only exist on individual parts. A systematic development and reuse based on a code generator product line is still in its inf...

Recent developments in multiperipheral models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Tar, C.

1977-01-01

Experiments do not provide all detailed information required in order to select among possible formulations of the multiperipheral model the correct one (''uniqueness problem''). There are at least three directions which lead away from the uniqueness problem. The first is simplified models with only enough complexity so as to satisfy the data approximately. The second involves invoking theoretical constraints which limit the theoretical flexibility of the model. The third and ultimate solution may be provided by the quark-gluon models or string models. The recent interest in the role of clusters in multiple production is a good illustration of the phenomenological problems facing multiperipheral models. The existence of clusters is certainly agreed upon, but for determination of their size directly from rapidity distributions the result so far depends on what one assumes about how they are produced. Theoretical work toward a unified picture of strong interactions has also led to some novel developments in multiperipheral models and the Regge pole theory. It is a problem now to choose between the more traditional picture of two vacuum singularities or the more novel approach which makes an effort to deal not merely with four-body amplitudes but in a more profound way, with multiple production processes which are related to them through unitarity

Overview of the FEP analysis approach to model development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bailey, L.

1998-01-01

This report heads a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed safety assessment. A five stage approach has been adopted, which provides a systematic framework for addressing uncertainty and for the documentation of all modelling decisions and assumptions. The five stages are as follows: Stage 1: EP Analysis - compilation and structuring of a FEP database; Stage 2: Scenario and Conceptual Model Development; Stage 3: Mathematical Model Development; Stage 4: Software Development; Stage 5: confidence Building. This report describes the development and structuring of a FEP database as a Master Directed Diagram (MDD) and explains how this may be used to identify different modelling scenarios, based upon the identification of scenario -defining FEPs. The methodology describes how the possible evolution of a repository system can be addressed in terms of a base scenario, a broad and reasonable representation of the 'natural' evolution of the system, and a number of variant scenarios, representing the effects of probabilistic events and processes. The MDD has been used to identify conceptual models to represent the base scenario and the interactions between these conceptual models have been systematically reviewed using a matrix diagram technique. This has led to the identification of modelling requirements for the base scenario, against which existing assessment software capabilities have been reviewed. A mechanism for combining probabilistic scenario-defining FEPs to construct multi-FEP variant scenarios has been proposed and trialled using the concept of a 'timeline', a defined sequence of events, from which consequences can be assessed. An iterative approach, based on conservative modelling principles, has been proposed for the evaluation of

Ongoing Model Development Analyzing Glass Fracture

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Molnar, G.; Bojtar, I.; Nielsen, Jens Henrik

2013-01-01

Present subject deals with an ongoing experimental and numerical analysis of inplane loaded glass plates. The main goal of the investigation is to develop a hybrid – discrete and finite element – model which could follow the fracture process in annealed and in tempered glass. Measurements of the ...... an overview of the structure of the research and a summary of current status archived so far.......Present subject deals with an ongoing experimental and numerical analysis of inplane loaded glass plates. The main goal of the investigation is to develop a hybrid – discrete and finite element – model which could follow the fracture process in annealed and in tempered glass. Measurements...... of the residual stress state before failure and high-speed camera recordings of the failure are being performed in order to verify the numerical model. The primary goal of this research is to follow the overall fracture of a structural element – e.g. beam – loaded inplane. Present paper would like to give...

Power-based electric vehicle energy consumption model: Model development and validation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fiori, Chiara; Ahn, Kyoungho; Rakha, Hesham A.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The study developed an instantaneous energy consumption model (VT-CPEM) for EVs. • The model captures instantaneous braking energy regeneration. • The model can be used for transportation modeling and vehicle applications (e.g. eco-routing). • The proposed model can be easily calibrated using publically available EV data. • Usages of air conditioning and heating systems reduce EV energy consumption by up to 10% and 24%, respectively. - Abstract: The limited drive range (The maximum distance that an EV can travel.) of Electric Vehicles (EVs) is one of the major challenges that EV manufacturers are attempting to overcome. To this end, a simple, accurate, and efficient energy consumption model is needed to develop real-time eco-driving and eco-routing systems that can enhance the energy efficiency of EVs and thus extend their travel range. Although numerous publications have focused on the modeling of EV energy consumption levels, these studies are limited to measuring energy consumption of an EV’s control algorithm, macro-project evaluations, or simplified well-to-wheels analyses. Consequently, this paper addresses this need by developing a simple EV energy model that computes an EV’s instantaneous energy consumption using second-by-second vehicle speed, acceleration and roadway grade data as input variables. In doing so, the model estimates the instantaneous braking energy regeneration. The proposed model can be easily implemented in the following applications: in-vehicle, Smartphone eco-driving, eco-routing and transportation simulation software to quantify the network-wide energy consumption levels for a fleet of EVs. One of the main advantages of EVs is their ability to recover energy while braking using a regenerative braking system. State-of-the-art vehicle energy consumption models consider an average constant regenerative braking energy efficiency or regenerative braking factors that are mainly dependent on the vehicle’s average

MODEL DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT OF ONLINE BANKING SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bresfelean Vasile Paul

2011-07-01

Full Text Available In case of online applications the cycle of software development varies from the routine. The online environment, the variety of users, the treatability of the mass of information created by them, the reusability and the accessibility from different devices are all factors of these systems complexity. The use of model drive approach brings several advantages that ease up the development process. Working prototypes that simplify client relationship and serve as the base of model tests can be easily made from models describing the system. These systems make possible for the banks clients to make their desired actions from anywhere. The user has the possibility of accessing information or making transactions.

Clinical Predictive Modeling Development and Deployment through FHIR Web Services.

Science.gov (United States)

Khalilia, Mohammed; Choi, Myung; Henderson, Amelia; Iyengar, Sneha; Braunstein, Mark; Sun, Jimeng

2015-01-01

Clinical predictive modeling involves two challenging tasks: model development and model deployment. In this paper we demonstrate a software architecture for developing and deploying clinical predictive models using web services via the Health Level 7 (HL7) Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) standard. The services enable model development using electronic health records (EHRs) stored in OMOP CDM databases and model deployment for scoring individual patients through FHIR resources. The MIMIC2 ICU dataset and a synthetic outpatient dataset were transformed into OMOP CDM databases for predictive model development. The resulting predictive models are deployed as FHIR resources, which receive requests of patient information, perform prediction against the deployed predictive model and respond with prediction scores. To assess the practicality of this approach we evaluated the response and prediction time of the FHIR modeling web services. We found the system to be reasonably fast with one second total response time per patient prediction.

Hierarchical functional model for automobile development; Jidosha kaihatsu no tame no kaisogata kino model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sumida, S [U-shin Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Nagamatsu, M; Maruyama, K [Hokkaido Institute of Technology, Sapporo (Japan); Hiramatsu, S [Mazda Motor Corp., Hiroshima (Japan)

1997-10-01

A new approach on modeling is put forward in order to compose the virtual prototype which is indispensable for fully computer integrated concurrent development of automobile product. A basic concept of the hierarchical functional model is proposed as the concrete form of this new modeling technology. This model is used mainly for explaining and simulating functions and efficiencies of both the parts and the total product of automobile. All engineers who engage themselves in design and development of automobile can collaborate with one another using this model. Some application examples are shown, and usefulness of this model is demonstrated. 5 refs., 5 figs.

Developments in Coastal Ocean Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, J. S.

2001-12-01

Capabilities in modeling continental shelf flow fields have improved markedly in the last several years. Progress is being made toward the long term scientific goal of utilizing numerical circulation models to interpolate, or extrapolate, necessarily limited field measurements to provide additional full-field information describing the behavior of, and providing dynamical rationalizations for, complex observed coastal flow. The improvement in modeling capabilities has been due to several factors including an increase in computer power and, importantly, an increase in experience of modelers in formulating relevant numerical experiments and in analyzing model results. We demonstrate present modeling capabilities and limitations by discussion of results from recent studies of shelf circulation off Oregon and northern California (joint work with Newberger, Gan, Oke, Pullen, and Wijesekera). Strong interactions between wind-forced coastal currents and continental shelf topography characterize the flow regimes in these cases. Favorable comparisons of model and measured alongshore currents and other variables provide confidence in the model-produced fields. The dependence of the mesoscale circulation, including upwelling and downwelling fronts and flow instabilities, on the submodel used to parameterize the effects of small scale turbulence, is discussed. Analyses of model results to provide explanations for the observed, but previously unexplained, alongshore variability in the intensity of coastal upwelling, which typically results in colder surface water south of capes, and the observed development in some locations of northward currents near the coast in response to the relaxation of southward winds, are presented.

Skills development programme: The UNISA/CSIR model

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Sparrow, RW

2010-09-01

Full Text Available development programmes and industry. A key component will be the use of Information Learning Technology. The skills development programmes are vocational and centred on research and industrial requirements. This programme is modelled on vocational...

The Development of Hierarchy of Effects Model in Advertising

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bambang Sukma Wijaya

2012-04-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to review the hierarchy of effects models in adverti-sing, especially the well-known model, AIDA (Attention, Interest, De-sire, and Action. Since its introduction by Lewis (1900 and generally attributed in the marketing and advertising literature by Strong (1925, the concept of AIDA’s hierarchy of effects model has been used by many researchers, both academicians and practitioners. The model is used to measure the effect of an advertisement. However, the deve-lopment of information technology has radically changed the way of how people communicate and socialize; as well as a paradigm shift from product-oriented marketing to consumer-oriented marketing or people-oriented marketing. Therefore, the variables in the hierarchy of effects model needs to be updated in respond to the latest develop-ments in the notice of public power as consumer audience. Based on deep literature review and reflective method, this paper introduces a new developed concept of hierarchy of effects model that was adop-ted from AIDA’s hierarchy of effects model, namely: AISDALSLove (At-tention, Interest, Search, Desire, Action, Like/dislike, Share, and Love/hate.

Ideal energy self-sufficient bioclimatic house

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Talamo, C.

1990-04-01

This paper points out some of the interesting architectural features of a conceptual house being designed to be self-sufficient relative to the use of conventional energy sources. Brief notes are given on the following special design characteristics: the house's orientation and form - essentially a V - shaped two storey design with an orientation such as to maximize the surface area exposed to winter insolation; its special low emissivity glazing equipped with nightfall insulating screens; the adoption of maximized insulation, in which case cost benefits were assessed based on amortization over the entire life span of the house; hybrid space heating and ventilation systems involving the integration of pumps and ventilators for air circulation, and the use of a varied mix of active and passive solar heating and cooling systems.

Development of a working Hovercraft model

Science.gov (United States)

Noor, S. H. Mohamed; Syam, K.; Jaafar, A. A.; Mohamad Sharif, M. F.; Ghazali, M. R.; Ibrahim, W. I.; Atan, M. F.

2016-02-01

This paper presents the development process to fabricate a working hovercraft model. The purpose of this study is to design and investigate of a fully functional hovercraft, based on the studies that had been done. The different designs of hovercraft model had been made and tested but only one of the models is presented in this paper. In this thesis, the weight, the thrust, the lift and the drag force of the model had been measured and the electrical and mechanical parts are also presented. The processing unit of this model is Arduino Uno by using the PSP2 (Playstation 2) as the controller. Since our prototype should be functioning on all kind of earth surface, our model also had been tested in different floor condition. They include water, grass, cement and tile. The Speed of the model is measured in every case as the respond variable, Current (I) as the manipulated variable and Voltage (V) as the constant variable.

Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Model Development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harrison, Thomas J [ORNL

2014-10-01

The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) research and development activities focus on four key areas: Developing assessment methods for evaluating advanced SMR technologies and characteristics; and Developing and testing of materials, fuels and fabrication techniques; and Resolving key regulatory issues identified by US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and industry; and Developing advanced instrumentation and controls and human-machine interfaces. This report focuses on development of assessment methods to evaluate advanced SMR technologies and characteristics. Specifically, this report describes the expansion and application of the economic modeling effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Analysis of the current modeling methods shows that one of the primary concerns for the modeling effort is the handling of uncertainty in cost estimates. Monte Carlo–based methods are commonly used to handle uncertainty, especially when implemented by a stand-alone script within a program such as Python or MATLAB. However, a script-based model requires each potential user to have access to a compiler and an executable capable of handling the script. Making the model accessible to multiple independent analysts is best accomplished by implementing the model in a common computing tool such as Microsoft Excel. Excel is readily available and accessible to most system analysts, but it is not designed for straightforward implementation of a Monte Carlo–based method. Using a Monte Carlo algorithm requires in-spreadsheet scripting and statistical analyses or the use of add-ons such as Crystal Ball. An alternative method uses propagation of error calculations in the existing Excel-based system to estimate system cost uncertainty. This method has the advantage of using Microsoft Excel as is, but it requires the use of simplifying assumptions. These assumptions do not necessarily bring into question the analytical results. In fact, the

Innovative model of development of traditionally industrial territories

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olga Anatolyevna Kozlova

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The consideration in this paper is given to innovative model of development of traditionally industrial territories. We emphasize the following basic approaches to the employment of innovative potential of territories: diversification and restructuring of local economy, integration and disintegration of life-sustaining activity of neighboring territories, progressive economic advance, as well as simultaneous combination of several approaches (mixed model. Progressive model of development is sufficiently popular and is related tothe increasing already existing potential of territories. In practice,it doesn’t generally suppose essential changes in sectoral structure of local economy and means developing existing productions and spheres of activity of territory. Mixed model of structural transformations is characterized through the fact, that it supposes simultaneous use of different elements from the models counted. It allows: firstly, to adopt in a bigger extent a complex of measures to conditions of certain territory; secondly, to take into account a broader range of exogenous and endogenous factors; thirdly, to raise the effectiveness of the program of structural transformations being realized

Model of the Product Development Lifecycle.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

He, Sunny L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roe, Natalie H. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wood, Evan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-10-01

While the increased use of Commercial Off-The-Shelf information technology equipment has presented opportunities for improved cost effectiveness and flexibility, the corresponding loss of control over the product's development creates unique vulnerabilities and security concerns. Of particular interest is the possibility of a supply chain attack. A comprehensive model for the lifecycle of hardware and software products is proposed based on a survey of existing literature from academic, government, and industry sources. Seven major lifecycle stages are identified and defined: (1) Requirements, (2) Design, (3) Manufacturing for hardware and Development for software, (4) Testing, (5) Distribution, (6) Use and Maintenance, and (7) Disposal. The model is then applied to examine the risk of attacks at various stages of the lifecycle.

Development of Spherical Near Field Model for Geological Radioactive Waste Repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, S. Y.; Lee, K. J.; Chang, S. H.; Lee, K. J.; Chang, S. H.

2012-01-01

Modeling for geological radioactive waste repository can be divided into 3 parts. They are near field modeling related to engineered barrier, far field modeling related to natural barrier and biosphere modeling. In order to make the general application for safety assessment of geological waste repository, spherical geometry near field model has been developed. This model can be used quite extensively when users calculate equivalent spherical geometry for specific engineered barrier like equivalent waste radius, equivalent barrier radius and etc. Only diffusion was considered for general purpose but advection part can be updated. Goldsim and Goldsim Radionuclide Transport (RT) module were chosen and used as developing tool for the flexible modeling. Developer can freely make their own model with developer friendly graphic interface by using Goldsim. Furthermore, model with user friendly graphic interface can be developed by using Goldsim Dashboard Authoring module. The model has been validated by comparing the result with that of another model, inserting similar inputs and conditions. The model has been proved to be reasonably operating from the comparison result by validation process. Cylindrical model can be developed as a further work based on the knowledge and experience from this research

Development of Spherical Near Field Model for Geological Radioactive Waste Repository

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, S. Y.; Lee, K. J.; Chang, S. H. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, K. J.; Chang, S. H. [Khalifa Univ. of Science/Technology and Research, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

2012-03-15

Modeling for geological radioactive waste repository can be divided into 3 parts. They are near field modeling related to engineered barrier, far field modeling related to natural barrier and biosphere modeling. In order to make the general application for safety assessment of geological waste repository, spherical geometry near field model has been developed. This model can be used quite extensively when users calculate equivalent spherical geometry for specific engineered barrier like equivalent waste radius, equivalent barrier radius and etc. Only diffusion was considered for general purpose but advection part can be updated. Goldsim and Goldsim Radionuclide Transport (RT) module were chosen and used as developing tool for the flexible modeling. Developer can freely make their own model with developer friendly graphic interface by using Goldsim. Furthermore, model with user friendly graphic interface can be developed by using Goldsim Dashboard Authoring module. The model has been validated by comparing the result with that of another model, inserting similar inputs and conditions. The model has been proved to be reasonably operating from the comparison result by validation process. Cylindrical model can be developed as a further work based on the knowledge and experience from this research.

Dependability modeling and assessment in UML-based software development.

Science.gov (United States)

Bernardi, Simona; Merseguer, José; Petriu, Dorina C

2012-01-01

Assessment of software nonfunctional properties (NFP) is an important problem in software development. In the context of model-driven development, an emerging approach for the analysis of different NFPs consists of the following steps: (a) to extend the software models with annotations describing the NFP of interest; (b) to transform automatically the annotated software model to the formalism chosen for NFP analysis; (c) to analyze the formal model using existing solvers; (d) to assess the software based on the results and give feedback to designers. Such a modeling→analysis→assessment approach can be applied to any software modeling language, be it general purpose or domain specific. In this paper, we focus on UML-based development and on the dependability NFP, which encompasses reliability, availability, safety, integrity, and maintainability. The paper presents the profile used to extend UML with dependability information, the model transformation to generate a DSPN formal model, and the assessment of the system properties based on the DSPN results.

Developing Cognitive Models for Social Simulation from Survey Data

Science.gov (United States)

Alt, Jonathan K.; Lieberman, Stephen

The representation of human behavior and cognition continues to challenge the modeling and simulation community. The use of survey and polling instruments to inform belief states, issue stances and action choice models provides a compelling means of developing models and simulations with empirical data. Using these types of data to population social simulations can greatly enhance the feasibility of validation efforts, the reusability of social and behavioral modeling frameworks, and the testable reliability of simulations. We provide a case study demonstrating these effects, document the use of survey data to develop cognitive models, and suggest future paths forward for social and behavioral modeling.

Wild boar mapping using population-density statistics: From polygons to high resolution raster maps.

Science.gov (United States)

Pittiglio, Claudia; Khomenko, Sergei; Beltran-Alcrudo, Daniel

2018-01-01

The wild boar is an important crop raider as well as a reservoir and agent of spread of swine diseases. Due to increasing densities and expanding ranges worldwide, the related economic losses in livestock and agricultural sectors are significant and on the rise. Its management and control would strongly benefit from accurate and detailed spatial information on species distribution and abundance, which are often available only for small areas. Data are commonly available at aggregated administrative units with little or no information about the distribution of the species within the unit. In this paper, a four-step geostatistical downscaling approach is presented and used to disaggregate wild boar population density statistics from administrative units of different shape and size (polygons) to 5 km resolution raster maps by incorporating auxiliary fine scale environmental variables. 1) First a stratification method was used to define homogeneous bioclimatic regions for the analysis; 2) Under a geostatistical framework, the wild boar densities at administrative units, i.e. subnational areas, were decomposed into trend and residual components for each bioclimatic region. Quantitative relationships between wild boar data and environmental variables were estimated through multiple regression and used to derive trend components at 5 km spatial resolution. Next, the residual components (i.e., the differences between the trend components and the original wild boar data at administrative units) were downscaled at 5 km resolution using area-to-point kriging. The trend and residual components obtained at 5 km resolution were finally added to generate fine scale wild boar estimates for each bioclimatic region. 3) These maps were then mosaicked to produce a final output map of predicted wild boar densities across most of Eurasia. 4) Model accuracy was assessed at each different step using input as well as independent data. We discuss advantages and limits of the method and its

Development of pathological anthropomorphic models using 3D modelling techniques for numerical dosimetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costa, Kleber Souza Silva; Barbosa, Antonio Konrado de Santana; Vieira, Jose Wilson; Lima, Fernando Roberto de Andrade

2011-01-01

Computational exposure models can be used to estimate human body absorbed dose in a series of situations such as X-Ray exams for diagnosis, accidents and medical treatments. These models are fundamentally composed of an anthropomorphic simulator (phantom), an algorithm that simulates a radioactive source and a Monte Carlo Code. The accuracy of data obtained in the simulation is strongly connected to the adequacy of such simulation to the real situation. The phantoms are one of the key factors for the researcher manipulation. They are generally developed in supine position and its anatomy is patronized by compiled data from international institutions such as ICRP or ICRU. Several pathologies modify the structure of organs and body tissues. In order to measure how significant these alterations are, an anthropomorphic model was developed for this study: patient mastectomies. This model was developed using voxel phantom FASH and then coupled with EGSnrc Monte Carlo code

JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2017-06-13

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL's researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects and is revised with 2017 figures.

Development of an Instructional Quality Assurance Model in Nursing Science

Science.gov (United States)

Ajpru, Haruthai; Pasiphol, Shotiga; Wongwanich, Suwimon

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop an instructional quality assurance model in nursing science. The study was divided into 3 phases; (1) to study the information for instructional quality assurance model development (2) to develop an instructional quality assurance model in nursing science and (3) to audit and the assessment of the developed…

Impact of urban atmospheric environment on hospital admissions in the elderly

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edelci Nunes da Silva

2012-08-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To analyze the impact of intra-urban atmospheric conditions on circulatory and respiratory diseases in elder adults. METHODS: Cross-sectional study based on data from 33,212 hospital admissions in adults over 60 years in the city of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, from 2003 to 2007. The association between atmospheric variables from Congonhas airport and bioclimatic index, Physiological Equivalent Temperature, was analyzed according to the district's socioenvironmental profile. Descriptive statistical analysis and regression models were used. RESULTS: There was an increase in hospital admissions due to circulatory diseases as average and lowest temperatures decreased. The likelihood of being admitted to the hospital increased by 12% with 1ºC decrease in the bioclimatic index and with 1ºC increase in the highest temperatures in the group with lower socioenvironmental conditions. The risk of admission due to respiratory diseases increased with inadequate air quality in districts with higher socioenvironmental conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The associations between morbidity and climate variables and the comfort index varied in different groups and diseases. Lower and higher temperatures increased the risk of hospital admission in the elderly. Districts with lower socioenvironmental conditions showed greater adverse health impacts.

Assessing heat-related health risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)

Science.gov (United States)

Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

2018-03-01

In this work, the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as a heat-related health risk indicator in Europe is demonstrated. The UTCI is a bioclimate index that uses a multi-node human heat balance model to represent the heat stress induced by meteorological conditions to the human body. Using 38 years of meteorological reanalysis data, UTCI maps were computed to assess the thermal bioclimate of Europe for the summer season. Patterns of heat stress conditions and non-thermal stress regions are identified across Europe. An increase in heat stress up to 1 °C is observed during recent decades. Correlation with mortality data from 17 European countries revealed that the relationship between the UTCI and death counts depends on the bioclimate of the country, and death counts increase in conditions of moderate and strong stress, i.e., when UTCI is above 26 and 32 °C. The UTCI's ability to represent mortality patterns is demonstrated for the 2003 European heatwave. These findings confirm the importance of UTCI as a bioclimatic index that is able to both capture the thermal bioclimatic variability of Europe, and relate such variability with the effects it has on human health.

Status report on dissolution model development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jackson, D.D.

1983-07-01

The computer program PROTOCOL models the dissolution reactions of chemical species in water. It is being developed particularly to study the dissolution of proposed nuclear waste forms and related phases. Experimentally derived leaching rate functions are coupled to thermochemical equilibrium calculations and water flow rates. The program has been developed over a period of years. This report describes improvements that have been done in the past year

Achieving thermal comfort and sustainable urban development in accordance with the principles of bioclimatic architecture: A case study of Ulcinj (Montenegro)

OpenAIRE

Bajçinovci Bujar

2017-01-01

Human communities have always taken actions to create a healthier environment for living and working. Those efforts are best documented in the architectural structure everywhere, starting from ancient history to the present. It is assumed that the town of Ulcinj is one of the earliest cities on the Adriatic coast. The building morphology and urban structure of Ulcinj is 2,500 years old and is continued by multi-ethnical society. Hence, the urban structure of Ulcinj developed harmonically acro...

Prediction of Chemical Function: Model Development and ...

Science.gov (United States)

The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Forecaster (ExpoCast) project is developing both statistical and mechanism-based computational models for predicting exposures to thousands of chemicals, including those in consumer products. The high-throughput (HT) screening-level exposures developed under ExpoCast can be combined with HT screening (HTS) bioactivity data for the risk-based prioritization of chemicals for further evaluation. The functional role (e.g. solvent, plasticizer, fragrance) that a chemical performs can drive both the types of products in which it is found and the concentration in which it is present and therefore impacting exposure potential. However, critical chemical use information (including functional role) is lacking for the majority of commercial chemicals for which exposure estimates are needed. A suite of machine-learning based models for classifying chemicals in terms of their likely functional roles in products based on structure were developed. This effort required collection, curation, and harmonization of publically-available data sources of chemical functional use information from government and industry bodies. Physicochemical and structure descriptor data were generated for chemicals with function data. Machine-learning classifier models for function were then built in a cross-validated manner from the descriptor/function data using the method of random forests. The models were applied to: 1) predict chemi

Integrating Design Decision Management with Model-based Software Development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Könemann, Patrick

Design decisions are continuously made during the development of software systems and are important artifacts for design documentation. Dedicated decision management systems are often used to capture such design knowledge. Most such systems are, however, separated from the design artifacts...... of the system. In model-based software development, where design models are used to develop a software system, outcomes of many design decisions have big impact on design models. The realization of design decisions is often manual and tedious work on design models. Moreover, keeping design models consistent......, or by ignoring the causes. This substitutes manual reviews to some extent. The concepts, implemented in a tool, have been validated with design patterns, refactorings, and domain level tests that comprise a replay of a real project. This proves the applicability of the solution to realistic examples...

Architecture design in global and model-centric software development

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heijstek, Werner

2012-01-01

This doctoral dissertation describes a series of empirical investigations into representation, dissemination and coordination of software architecture design in the context of global software development. A particular focus is placed on model-centric and model-driven software development.

Development of a Gas Systems Analysis Model (GSAM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becker, A.B.; Pepper, W.J.

1995-01-01

Objective of developing this model (GSAM) is to create a comprehensive, nonproprietary, PC-based model of domestic gas industry activity. The system can assess impacts of various changes in the natural gas system in North America; individual and collective impacts due to changes in technology and economic conditions are explicitly modeled in GSAM. Major gas resources are all modeled, including conventional, tight, Devonian Shale, coalbed methane, and low-quality gas sources. The modeling system assesses all key components of the gas industry, including available resources, exploration, drilling, completion, production, and processing practices. Distribution, storage, and utilization of natural gas in a dynamic market-gased analytical structure is assessed. GSAM is designed to provide METC managers with a tool to project impacts of future research, development, and demonstration benefits

Model Driven Software Development for Agricultural Robotics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Morten

The design and development of agricultural robots, consists of both mechan- ical, electrical and software components. All these components must be de- signed and combined such that the overall goal of the robot is fulfilled. The design and development of these systems require collaboration between...... processing, control engineering, etc. This thesis proposes a Model-Driven Software Develop- ment based approach to model, analyse and partially generate the software implementation of a agricultural robot. Furthermore, Guidelines for mod- elling the architecture of an agricultural robots are provided......, assisting with bridging the different engineering disciplines. Timing play an important role in agricultural robotic applications, synchronisation of robot movement and implement actions is important in order to achieve precision spraying, me- chanical weeding, individual feeding, etc. Discovering...

Conceptual Development af a 3D Product Configuration Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skauge, Jørn

2006-01-01

in the development of IT-systems that support the procedures in companies and in the building industry. In other words, it is a knowledge-based system that helps companies in their daily work. The aim of the project has been to develop and examine conceptual ideas about 3D modelling configurator used in the company......’s production of steel fire sliding doors. The development of the 3D digital model is based on practical rather than theoretical research. The result of the research is a prototype digital 3D model to be presented live.......Paper. This project deals with 3D product configuration of a digital building element which has been developed as a prototype in cooperation between a product manufacturer and a research institution in Denmark. The project falls within the concept of product modelling which is more and more used...

Energy Performance of Three Residential College Buildings in University of Malaya Campus, Kuala Lumpur

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adi Ainurzaman Jamaludin

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Three residential colleges located in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, were selected for energy performance analysis in regards to its implementation of bioclimatic design strategies. Specifically, passive design strategies on daylighting and natural ventilation were examined. In Malaysia, the residential college or hostel is a multi-residential building providing accommodation to university students. The three residential colleges in this study, namely C1, C2 and C3, were built in different years with different designs and forms, particularly with regards to enclosure and facade design, solar control devices, passive daylight concepts, and natural ventilation strategies. The building designs were carefully studied and an electric consumption analysis was carried out in each residential college. This study revealed that the wide-scale implementation of bioclimatic design strategies in college C2 help reduced the annual energy consumption. The building bioclimatic design features that are accountable to reduce energy consumption are the internal courtyard and balconies on each unit of floor area, as shown in C3.Results from this study highly recommend internal courtyard and balcony building combination for multi residential building design, especially in tropical urban regions.

Quasi steady-state aerodynamic model development for race vehicle simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Mohrfeld-Halterman, J. A.; Uddin, M.

2016-01-01

Presented in this paper is a procedure to develop a high fidelity quasi steady-state aerodynamic model for use in race car vehicle dynamic simulations. Developed to fit quasi steady-state wind tunnel data, the aerodynamic model is regressed against three independent variables: front ground clearance, rear ride height, and yaw angle. An initial dual range model is presented and then further refined to reduce the model complexity while maintaining a high level of predictive accuracy. The model complexity reduction decreases the required amount of wind tunnel data thereby reducing wind tunnel testing time and cost. The quasi steady-state aerodynamic model for the pitch moment degree of freedom is systematically developed in this paper. This same procedure can be extended to the other five aerodynamic degrees of freedom to develop a complete six degree of freedom quasi steady-state aerodynamic model for any vehicle.

Cognitive components underpinning the development of model-based learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Potter, Tracey C S; Bryce, Nessa V; Hartley, Catherine A

2017-06-01

Reinforcement learning theory distinguishes "model-free" learning, which fosters reflexive repetition of previously rewarded actions, from "model-based" learning, which recruits a mental model of the environment to flexibly select goal-directed actions. Whereas model-free learning is evident across development, recruitment of model-based learning appears to increase with age. However, the cognitive processes underlying the development of model-based learning remain poorly characterized. Here, we examined whether age-related differences in cognitive processes underlying the construction and flexible recruitment of mental models predict developmental increases in model-based choice. In a cohort of participants aged 9-25, we examined whether the abilities to infer sequential regularities in the environment ("statistical learning"), maintain information in an active state ("working memory") and integrate distant concepts to solve problems ("fluid reasoning") predicted age-related improvements in model-based choice. We found that age-related improvements in statistical learning performance did not mediate the relationship between age and model-based choice. Ceiling performance on our working memory assay prevented examination of its contribution to model-based learning. However, age-related improvements in fluid reasoning statistically mediated the developmental increase in the recruitment of a model-based strategy. These findings suggest that gradual development of fluid reasoning may be a critical component process underlying the emergence of model-based learning. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Multiscale Modeling in the Clinic: Drug Design and Development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clancy, Colleen E.; An, Gary; Cannon, William R.; Liu, Yaling; May, Elebeoba E.; Ortoleva, Peter; Popel, Aleksander S.; Sluka, James P.; Su, Jing; Vicini, Paolo; Zhou, Xiaobo; Eckmann, David M.

2016-02-17

A wide range of length and time scales are relevant to pharmacology, especially in drug development, drug design and drug delivery. Therefore, multi-scale computational modeling and simulation methods and paradigms that advance the linkage of phenomena occurring at these multiple scales have become increasingly important. Multi-scale approaches present in silico opportunities to advance laboratory research to bedside clinical applications in pharmaceuticals research. This is achievable through the capability of modeling to reveal phenomena occurring across multiple spatial and temporal scales, which are not otherwise readily accessible to experimentation. The resultant models, when validated, are capable of making testable predictions to guide drug design and delivery. In this review we describe the goals, methods, and opportunities of multi-scale modeling in drug design and development. We demonstrate the impact of multiple scales of modeling in this field. We indicate the common mathematical techniques employed for multi-scale modeling approaches used in pharmacology and present several examples illustrating the current state-of-the-art regarding drug development for: Excitable Systems (Heart); Cancer (Metastasis and Differentiation); Cancer (Angiogenesis and Drug Targeting); Metabolic Disorders; and Inflammation and Sepsis. We conclude with a focus on barriers to successful clinical translation of drug development, drug design and drug delivery multi-scale models.

A model of optimization for local energy infrastructure development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Juroszek, Zbigniew; Kudelko, Mariusz

2016-01-01

The authors present a non-linear, optimization model supporting the planning of local energy systems development. The model considers two forms of final energy – heat and electricity. The model reflects both private and external costs and is designed to show the social perspective. It considers the variability of the marginal costs attributed to local renewable resources. In order to demonstrate the capacity of the model, the authors present a case study by modelling the development of the energy infrastructure in a municipality located in the south of Poland. The ensuing results show that a swift and significant shift in the local energy policy of typical central European municipalities is needed. The modelling is done in two scenarios – with and without the internalization of external environmental costs. The results confirm that the internalization of the external costs of energy production on a local scale leads to a significant improvement in the allocation of resources. - Highlights: • A model for municipal energy system development in Central European environment has been developed. • The variability of marginal costs of local, renewable fuels is considered. • External, environmental costs are considered. • The model reflects both network and individual energy infrastructure (e.g. individual housing boilers). • A swift change in Central European municipal energy infrastructure is necessary.

Multiscale mechanistic modeling in pharmaceutical research and development.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuepfer, Lars; Lippert, Jörg; Eissing, Thomas

2012-01-01

Discontinuation of drug development projects due to lack of efficacy or adverse events is one of the main cost drivers in pharmaceutical research and development (R&D). Investments have to be written-off and contribute to the total costs of a successful drug candidate receiving marketing authorization and allowing return on invest. A vital risk for pharmaceutical innovator companies is late stage clinical failure since costs for individual clinical trials may exceed the one billion Euro threshold. To guide investment decisions and to safeguard maximum medical benefit and safety for patients recruited in clinical trials, it is therefore essential to understand the clinical consequences of all information and data generated. The complexity of the physiological and pathophysiological processes and the sheer amount of information available overcharge the mental capacity of any human being and prevent a prediction of the success in clinical development. A rigorous integration of knowledge, assumption, and experimental data into computational models promises a significant improvement of the rationalization of decision making in pharmaceutical industry. We here give an overview of the current status of modeling and simulation in pharmaceutical R&D and outline the perspectives of more recent developments in mechanistic modeling. Specific modeling approaches for different biological scales ranging from intracellular processes to whole organism physiology are introduced and an example for integrative multiscale modeling of therapeutic efficiency in clinical oncology trials is showcased.

Development of a common data model for scientific simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ambrosiano, J. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Butler, D.M. [Limit Point Systems, Inc. (United States); Matarazzo, C.; Miller, M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Schoof, L. [Sandia National Lab., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1999-06-01

The problem of sharing data among scientific simulation models is a difficult and persistent one. Computational scientists employ an enormous variety of discrete approximations in modeling physical processes on computers. Problems occur when models based on different representations are required to exchange data with one another, or with some other software package. Within the DOE`s Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI), a cross-disciplinary group called the Data Models and Formats (DMF) group, has been working to develop a common data model. The current model is comprised of several layers of increasing semantic complexity. One of these layers is an abstract model based on set theory and topology called the fiber bundle kernel (FBK). This layer provides the flexibility needed to describe a wide range of mesh-approximated functions as well as other entities. This paper briefly describes the ASCI common data model, its mathematical basis, and ASCI prototype development. These prototypes include an object-oriented data management library developed at Los Alamos called the Common Data Model Library or CDMlib, the Vector Bundle API from the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, and the DMF API from Sandia National Laboratory.

Study on the development of geological environmental model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsujimoto, Keiichi; Shinohara, Yoshinori; Ueta, Shinzo; Saito, Shigeyuki; Kawamura, Yuji; Tomiyama, Shingo; Ohashi, Toyo

2002-03-01

The safety performance assessment was carried out in potential geological environment in the conventional research and development of geological disposal, but the importance of safety assessment based on the repository design and scenario considering the concrete geological environment will increase in the future. The research considering the link of the major three fields of geological disposal, investigation of geological environment, repository design, and safety performance assessment, is the contemporary worldwide research theme. Hence it is important to organize information flow that contains the series of information process form the data production to analysis in the three fields, and to systemize the knowledge base that unifies the information flow hierarchically. The purpose of the research is to support the development of the unified analysis system for geological disposal. The development technology for geological environmental model studied for the second progress report by JNC are organized and examined for the purpose of developing database system with considering the suitability for the deep underground research facility. The geological environmental investigation technology and building methodology for geological structure and hydro geological structure models are organized and systemized. Furthermore, the quality assurance methods in building geological environment models are examined. Information which is used and stored in the unified analysis system are examined to design database structure of the system based on the organized methodology for building geological environmental model. The graphic processing function for data stored in the unified database are examined. furthermore, future research subjects for the development of detail models for geological disposal are surveyed to organize safety performance system. (author)

Built To Last: Using Iterative Development Models for Sustainable Scientific Software Development

Science.gov (United States)

Jasiak, M. E.; Truslove, I.; Savoie, M.

2013-12-01

In scientific research, software development exists fundamentally for the results they create. The core research must take focus. It seems natural to researchers, driven by grant deadlines, that every dollar invested in software development should be used to push the boundaries of problem solving. This system of values is frequently misaligned with those of the software being created in a sustainable fashion; short-term optimizations create longer-term sustainability issues. The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) has taken bold cultural steps in using agile and lean development and management methodologies to help its researchers meet critical deadlines, while building in the necessary support structure for the code to live far beyond its original milestones. Agile and lean software development and methodologies including Scrum, Kanban, Continuous Delivery and Test-Driven Development have seen widespread adoption within NSIDC. This focus on development methods is combined with an emphasis on explaining to researchers why these methods produce more desirable results for everyone, as well as promoting developers interacting with researchers. This presentation will describe NSIDC's current scientific software development model, how this addresses the short-term versus sustainability dichotomy, the lessons learned and successes realized by transitioning to this agile and lean-influenced model, and the current challenges faced by the organization.

Urban heat island and bioclimatological conditions in a hot-humid tropical city: the example of Akure, Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Balogun, Ifeoluwa A.

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The impact of weather on human health has become an issue of increased significance in recent times, considering the increasing rate of urbanisation and the much associated heat island phenomenon. This study examines the urbanisation influence on human bioclimatic conditions in Akure, a medium sized hot-humid tropical city in Nigeria, utilising data from measurements at urban and rural sites in the city. Differences in the diurnal, monthly and seasonal variation of human bioclimatic characteristics between both environments were evaluated and tested for statistical significance. Higher frequencies of high temperatures observed in the city centre suggest a significant heat stress and health risk in this hot-humid city.

Congenital anomalies in Primorsky region.

Science.gov (United States)

Kiku, P; Voronin, S; Golokhvast, K

2015-01-01

According to WHO hereditary diseases and congenital malformations contribute significantly to the health of population. Thus, the problems of epidemiology, clinical presentation, diagnosis and treatment of congenital abnormalities are of interest for many researchers [2]. In addition, the dynamic accounting for the incidence of congenital malformations and hereditary diseases allows the researchers to assess the ecological situation in the region [1]. The occurrence of congenital anomalies in the world varies; it depends heavily on how carefully the data is collected [4]. Multifactorial or polygenic diseases develop under the influence of environmental factors in the presence of defective genes. They can constitute up to 90% of all chronic pathology [2-5]. To determine the incidence of congenital anomalies under the influence of environmental factors. The study used the methodology of system evaluation of congenital anomalies incidence in Primorsky region, depending on bio-climatic and environmental conditions. The authors used health statistics for the period from 2000 to 2014, F.12 class for congenital abnormalities in adolescents and children that were compared in geographical and temporal aspects with environmental factors of 33 settlements in Primorsky region. The environment is represented by nature and climate (6 factor modules) and sanitation (7 factor modules) blocks of factors. When formalizing the information database of the environment a specially developed 10-point assessment scale was used. Statistical processing of the information was carried out using Pearson's chi-squared test and multiple regression method from SSPS application program package. The study found that over the 15-year period the level of congenital abnormalities in children increased by 27.5% and in adolescents - by 35.1%, and in 2014 it amounted to 1687.6 and 839.3 per 100 000 people, respectively. The predictive model shows a steady further growth of this pathology. The incidence

Development of modeling tools for pin-by-pin precise reactor simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma Yan; Li Shu; Li Gang; Zhang Baoyin; Deng Li; Fu Yuanguang

2013-01-01

In order to develop large-scale transport simulation and calculation method (such as simulation of whole reactor core pin-by-pin problem), the Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics developed the neutron-photon coupled transport code JMCT and the toolkit JCOGIN. Creating physical calculation model easily and efficiently can essentially reduce problem solving time. Currently, lots of visual modeling programs have been developed based on different CAD systems. In this article, the developing idea of a visual modeling tool based on field oriented development was introduced. Considering the feature of physical modeling, fast and convenient operation modules were developed. In order to solve the storage and conversion problems of large scale models, the data structure and conversional algorithm based on the hierarchical geometry tree were designed. The automatic conversion and generation of physical model input file for JMCT were realized. By using this modeling tool, the Dayawan reactor whole core physical model was created, and the transformed file was delivered to JMCT for transport calculation. The results validate the correctness of the visual modeling tool. (authors)

Importance of Computer Model Validation in Pyroprocessing Technology Development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jung, Y. E.; Li, Hui; Yim, M. S. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-05-15

In this research, we developed a plan for experimental validation of one of the computer models developed for ER process modeling, i. e., the ERAD code. Several candidate surrogate materials are selected for the experiment considering the chemical and physical properties. Molten salt-based pyroprocessing technology is being examined internationally as an alternative to treat spent nuclear fuel over aqueous technology. The central process in pyroprocessing is electrorefining(ER) which separates uranium from transuranic elements and fission products present in spent nuclear fuel. ER is a widely used process in the minerals industry to purify impure metals. Studies of ER by using actual spent nuclear fuel materials are problematic for both technical and political reasons. Therefore, the initial effort for ER process optimization is made by using computer models. A number of models have been developed for this purpose. But as validation of these models is incomplete and often times problematic, the simulation results from these models are inherently uncertain.

Agent Model Development for Assessing Climate-Induced Geopolitical Instability.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.

2005-12-01

We present the initial stages of development of new agent-based computational methods to generate and test hypotheses about linkages between environmental change and international instability. This report summarizes the first year's effort of an originally proposed three-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. The preliminary work focused on a set of simple agent-based models and benefited from lessons learned in previous related projects and case studies of human response to climate change and environmental scarcity. Our approach was to define a qualitative model using extremely simple cellular agent models akin to Lovelock's Daisyworld and Schelling's segregation model. Such models do not require significant computing resources, and users can modify behavior rules to gain insights. One of the difficulties in agent-based modeling is finding the right balance between model simplicity and real-world representation. Our approach was to keep agent behaviors as simple as possible during the development stage (described herein) and to ground them with a realistic geospatial Earth system model in subsequent years. This work is directed toward incorporating projected climate data--including various C02 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report--and ultimately toward coupling a useful agent-based model to a general circulation model.3

Development of interpretation models for PFN uranium log analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnard, R.W.

1980-11-01

This report presents the models for interpretation of borehole logs for the PFN (Prompt Fission Neutron) uranium logging system. Two models have been developed, the counts-ratio model and the counts/dieaway model. Both are empirically developed, but can be related to the theoretical bases for PFN analysis. The models try to correct for the effects of external factors (such as probe or formation parameters) in the calculation of uranium grade. The theoretical bases and calculational techniques for estimating uranium concentration from raw PFN data and other parameters are discussed. Examples and discussions of borehole logs are included

Advanced reach tool (ART) : Development of the mechanistic model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fransman, W.; Tongeren, M. van; Cherrie, J.W.; Tischer, M.; Schneider, T.; Schinkel, J.; Kromhout, H.; Warren, N.; Goede, H.; Tielemans, E.

2011-01-01

This paper describes the development of the mechanistic model within a collaborative project, referred to as the Advanced REACH Tool (ART) project, to develop a tool to model inhalation exposure for workers sharing similar operational conditions across different industries and locations in Europe.

Applied economic model development algorithm for electronics company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mikhailov I.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to report about received experience in the field of creating the actual methods and algorithms that help to simplify development of applied decision support systems. It reports about an algorithm, which is a result of two years research and have more than one-year practical verification. In a case of testing electronic components, the time of the contract conclusion is crucial point to make the greatest managerial mistake. At this stage, it is difficult to achieve a realistic assessment of time-limit and of wage-fund for future work. The creation of estimating model is possible way to solve this problem. In the article is represented an algorithm for creation of those models. The algorithm is based on example of the analytical model development that serves for amount of work estimation. The paper lists the algorithm’s stages and explains their meanings with participants’ goals. The implementation of the algorithm have made possible twofold acceleration of these models development and fulfilment of management’s requirements. The resulting models have made a significant economic effect. A new set of tasks was identified to be further theoretical study.

Setting development goals using stochastic dynamical system models.

Science.gov (United States)

Ranganathan, Shyam; Nicolis, Stamatios C; Bali Swain, Ranjula; Sumpter, David J T

2017-01-01

The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) programme was an ambitious attempt to encourage a globalised solution to important but often-overlooked development problems. The programme led to wide-ranging development but it has also been criticised for unrealistic and arbitrary targets. In this paper, we show how country-specific development targets can be set using stochastic, dynamical system models built from historical data. In particular, we show that the MDG target of two-thirds reduction of child mortality from 1990 levels was infeasible for most countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, the MDG targets were not ambitious enough for fast-developing countries such as Brazil and China. We suggest that model-based setting of country-specific targets is essential for the success of global development programmes such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). This approach should provide clear, quantifiable targets for policymakers.

The Development of Hierarchy of Effects Model in Advertising

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bambang Sukma Wijaya

2012-04-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to review the hierarchy of effects models in advertising, especially the well-known model, AIDA (Attention, Interest, Desire, and Action. Since its introduction by Lewis (1900 and generally attributed in the marketing and advertising literature by Strong (1925, the concept of AIDA’s hierarchy of effects model has been used by many researchers, both academicians and practitioners. The model is used to measure the effect of an advertisement. However, the development of information technology has radically changed the way of how people communicate and socialize; as well as a paradigm shift from product-oriented marketing to consumer-oriented marketing or people-oriented marketing. Therefore, the variables in the hierarchy of effects model needs to be updated in respond to the latest developments in the notice of public power as consumer audience. Based on deep literature review and reflective method, this paper introduces a new developed concept of hierarchy of effects model that was adopted from AIDA’s hierarchy of effects model, namely: AISDALSLove (At-tention, Interest, Search, Desire, Action, Like/dislike, Share, and Love/hate.

Sectioning Clay Models Makes Anatomy & Development Tangible

Science.gov (United States)

Howell, Carina Endres; Howell, James Endres

2010-01-01

Clay models have proved to be useful teaching aids for many topics in biology that depend on three-dimensional reasoning. Students studying embryonic development struggle to mentally reconstruct the three-dimensional structure of embryos and larvae by observing prepared slides of cross-sectional slices. Students who build clay models of embryos…

DEVELOPMENT OF A MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING MODEL FOR ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... of minor maintenance, for each machine within this time span. In order to minimize the total cost of repairs and production. A numerical application of this development model in a case study is presented. Key words: Maintenance, modeling, scheduling, optimization. [Global Jnl Engineering Res. Vol.1(2) 2002: 107-118] ...

Development of thermal hydraulic models for the reliable regulatory auditing code

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, B. D.; Song, C. H.; Lee, Y. J.; Kwon, T. S. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

2003-04-15

The objective of this project is to develop thermal hydraulic models for use in improving the reliability of the regulatory auditing codes. The current year fall under the first step of the 3 year project, and the main researches were focused on identifying the candidate thermal hydraulic models for improvement and to develop prototypical model development. During the current year, the verification calculations submitted for the APR 1400 design certification have been reviewed, the experimental data from the MIDAS DVI experiment facility in KAERI have been analyzed and evaluated, candidate thermal hydraulic models for improvement have been identified, prototypical models for the improved thermal hydraulic models have been developed, items for experiment in connection with the model development have been identified, and preliminary design of the experiment has been carried out.

Development of thermal hydraulic models for the reliable regulatory auditing code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, B. D.; Song, C. H.; Lee, Y. J.; Kwon, T. S.

2003-04-01

The objective of this project is to develop thermal hydraulic models for use in improving the reliability of the regulatory auditing codes. The current year fall under the first step of the 3 year project, and the main researches were focused on identifying the candidate thermal hydraulic models for improvement and to develop prototypical model development. During the current year, the verification calculations submitted for the APR 1400 design certification have been reviewed, the experimental data from the MIDAS DVI experiment facility in KAERI have been analyzed and evaluated, candidate thermal hydraulic models for improvement have been identified, prototypical models for the improved thermal hydraulic models have been developed, items for experiment in connection with the model development have been identified, and preliminary design of the experiment has been carried out

Agribusiness model approach to territorial food development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Murcia Hector Horacio

2011-04-01

Full Text Available

Several research efforts have coordinated the academic program of Agricultural Business Management from the University De La Salle (Bogota D.C., to the design and implementation of a sustainable agribusiness model applied to food development, with territorial projection. Rural development is considered as a process that aims to improve the current capacity and potential of the inhabitant of the sector, which refers not only to production levels and productivity of agricultural items. It takes into account the guidelines of the Organization of the United Nations “Millennium Development Goals” and considered the concept of sustainable food and agriculture development, including food security and nutrition in an integrated interdisciplinary context, with holistic and systemic dimension. Analysis is specified by a model with an emphasis on sustainable agribusiness production chains related to agricultural food items in a specific region. This model was correlated with farm (technical objectives, family (social purposes and community (collective orientations projects. Within this dimension are considered food development concepts and methodologies of Participatory Action Research (PAR. Finally, it addresses the need to link the results to low-income communities, within the concepts of the “new rurality”.

Development of CCF modeling and analysis methodology for diverse system status

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lim, Tae Jin; Byun, Si Sub; Yoon, Tae Kwan [Soongsil University, Seoul (Korea); Moon, Jae Pil [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea)

1999-04-01

The objectives of this project is to develop a procedure for modeling and analyzing CCF efficiently according to various system status. CCF events change according to the change of the system status due to maintenance, accidents, or alternating success criteria for various missions. The objective of the first year's research is to develope a CCF model for various system status. We reviewed and evaluated current CCF models, and analyze their merits and deficiency in modeling various system status. An approximate model is developed as a CCF model. The model is compatible with MGL model. Extensive sensitivity study shows the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model. Second year's research aims to the development of an integrated CCF procedure for PSA and risk monitor. We develope an adaptive method for the approximate model in a k/m/G system with multiple common cause groups. The accuracy of the method is proved by comparing with the implicit method. Next, we develope a method for modeling CCF in a fault tree. Three alternatives are considered. It is proved to be most efficient to model the CCF events under the gate of individual component failure. The we provides a method for estimating the CCF probability, and develope a software for this purpose. We finally provide a fundamental procedure for modeling CCF in a risk monitor. The modeling procedure is applied to HPSI system, and it is proved to be efficient and accurate. (author). 48 refs., 11 figs., 53 tabs.

Preliminary Phase Field Computational Model Development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Yulan [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hu, Shenyang Y. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Xu, Ke [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Suter, Jonathan D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); McCloy, John S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Johnson, Bradley R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2014-12-15

This interim report presents progress towards the development of meso-scale models of magnetic behavior that incorporate microstructural information. Modeling magnetic signatures in irradiated materials with complex microstructures (such as structural steels) is a significant challenge. The complexity is addressed incrementally, using the monocrystalline Fe (i.e., ferrite) film as model systems to develop and validate initial models, followed by polycrystalline Fe films, and by more complicated and representative alloys. In addition, the modeling incrementally addresses inclusion of other major phases (e.g., martensite, austenite), minor magnetic phases (e.g., carbides, FeCr precipitates), and minor nonmagnetic phases (e.g., Cu precipitates, voids). The focus of the magnetic modeling is on phase-field models. The models are based on the numerical solution to the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert equation. From the computational standpoint, phase-field modeling allows the simulation of large enough systems that relevant defect structures and their effects on functional properties like magnetism can be simulated. To date, two phase-field models have been generated in support of this work. First, a bulk iron model with periodic boundary conditions was generated as a proof-of-concept to investigate major loop effects of single versus polycrystalline bulk iron and effects of single non-magnetic defects. More recently, to support the experimental program herein using iron thin films, a new model was generated that uses finite boundary conditions representing surfaces and edges. This model has provided key insights into the domain structures observed in magnetic force microscopy (MFM) measurements. Simulation results for single crystal thin-film iron indicate the feasibility of the model for determining magnetic domain wall thickness and mobility in an externally applied field. Because the phase-field model dimensions are limited relative to the size of most specimens used in

The Community Water Model (CWATM) / Development of a community driven global water model

Science.gov (United States)

Burek, Peter; Satoh, Yusuke; Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

With a growing population and economic development, it is expected that water demands will increase significantly in the future, especially in developing regions. At the same time, climate change is expected to alter spatial patterns of hydrological cycle and will have global, regional and local impacts on water availability. Thus, it is important to assess water supply, water demand and environmental needs over time to identify the populations and locations that will be most affected by these changes linked to water scarcity, droughts and floods. The Community Water Model (CWATM) will be designed for this purpose in that it includes an accounting of how future water demands will evolve in response to socioeconomic change and how water availability will change in response to climate. CWATM represents one of the new key elements of IIASA's Water program. It has been developed to work flexibly at both global and regional level at different spatial resolutions. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water community worldwide and is flexible enough linking to further planned developments such as water quality and hydro-economic modules. CWATM will be a basis to develop a next-generation global hydro-economic modeling framework that represents the economic trade-offs among different water management options over a basin looking at water supply infrastructure and demand managements. The integrated modeling framework will consider water demand from agriculture, domestic, energy, industry and environment, investment needs to alleviate future water scarcity, and will provide a portfolio of economically optimal solutions for achieving future water management options under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for example. In addition, it will be able to track the energy requirements associated with the water supply system e.g., pumping, desalination and interbasin transfer to realize the linkage with the water-energy economy. In

Argonne Bubble Experiment Thermal Model Development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buechler, Cynthia Eileen [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2015-12-03

This report will describe the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model that was developed to calculate the temperatures and gas volume fractions in the solution vessel during the irradiation. It is based on the model used to calculate temperatures and volume fractions in an annular vessel containing an aqueous solution of uranium . The experiment was repeated at several electron beam power levels, but the CFD analysis was performed only for the 12 kW irradiation, because this experiment came the closest to reaching a steady-state condition. The aim of the study is to compare results of the calculation with experimental measurements to determine the validity of the CFD model.

A model for the development of university curricula in nanoelectronics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bruun, Erik; Nielsen, I

2010-01-01

Nanotechnology is having an increasing impact on university curricula in electrical engineering and in physics. Major influencers affecting developments in university programmes related to nanoelectronics are discussed and a model for university programme development is described. The model takes...... engineering. Examples of European curricula following this framework are identified and described. These examples may serve as sources of inspiration for future developments and the model...

Modeling and managing risk early in software development

Science.gov (United States)

Briand, Lionel C.; Thomas, William M.; Hetmanski, Christopher J.

1993-01-01

In order to improve the quality of the software development process, we need to be able to build empirical multivariate models based on data collectable early in the software process. These models need to be both useful for prediction and easy to interpret, so that remedial actions may be taken in order to control and optimize the development process. We present an automated modeling technique which can be used as an alternative to regression techniques. We show how it can be used to facilitate the identification and aid the interpretation of the significant trends which characterize 'high risk' components in several Ada systems. Finally, we evaluate the effectiveness of our technique based on a comparison with logistic regression based models.

Computer-Aided Template for Model Reuse, Development and Maintenance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fedorova, Marina; Sin, Gürkan; Gani, Rafiqul

2014-01-01

A template-based approach for model development is presented in this work. Based on a model decomposition technique, the computer-aided template concept has been developed. This concept is implemented as a software tool , which provides a user-friendly interface for following the workflow steps...

Aspect-Oriented Model Development at Different Levels of Abstraction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alférez, Mauricio; Amálio, Nuno; Ciraci, S.; Fleurey, Franck; Kienzle, Jörg; Klein, Jacques; Kramer, Max; Mosser, Sebastien; Mussbacher, Gunter; Roubtsova, Ella; Zhang, Gefei; France, Robert B.; Kuester, Jochen M.; Bordbar, Behzad; Paige, Richard F.

2011-01-01

The last decade has seen the development of diverse aspect- oriented modeling (AOM) approaches. This paper presents eight different AOM approaches that produce models at different level of abstraction. The approaches are different with respect to the phases of the development lifecycle they target,

Model-based scenarios for rural electrification in developing countries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ruijven, B. van; Schers, J.; Vuuren, D.P. van

2012-01-01

Promoting access to modern energy forms in developing countries to replace traditional fuels is high on the political agenda. This paper describes the development and application of a global model for rural electrification. The model is used to assess future trends in electrification, and the

Development and verification of printed circuit board toroidal transformer model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pejtersen, Jens; Mønster, Jakob Døllner; Knott, Arnold

2013-01-01

An analytical model of an air core printed circuit board embedded toroidal transformer configuration is presented. The transformer has been developed for galvanic isolation of very high frequency switch-mode dc-dc power converter applications. The theoretical model is developed and verified...... by comparing calculated parameters with 3D finite element simulations and experimental measurement results. The developed transformer model shows good agreement with the simulated and measured results. The model can be used to predict the parameters of printed circuit board toroidal transformer configurations...

Recontextualizing Psychosocial Development in Young Children: A Model of Environmental Identity Development

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Carie; Kalvaitis, Darius; Worster, Anneliese

2016-01-01

This article presents an Environmental Identity Development model, which considers the progression of young children's self-cognitions in relation to the natural world. We recontextualize four of Erikson's psychosocial stages, in order to consider children's identity development in learning in, about, and for the environment. Beginning with…

Understanding Mammalian Germ Line Development with In Vitro Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez-Arroyo, Ana M; Míguez-Forján, Jose M; Remohí, Jose; Pellicer, Antonio; Medrano, Jose V

2015-09-15

Germ line development is crucial in organisms with sexual reproduction to complete their life cycle. In mammals, knowledge about germ line development is based mainly on the mouse model, in which genetic and epigenetic events are well described. However, little is known about how germ line development is orchestrated in humans, especially in the earliest stages. New findings derived from human in vitro models to obtain germ cells can shed light on these questions. This comprehensive review summarizes the current knowledge about mammalian germ line development, emphasizing the state of the art obtained from in vitro models for germ cell-like cell derivation. Current knowledge of the pluripotency cycle and germ cell specification has allowed different in vitro strategies to obtain germ cells with proven functionality in mouse models. Several reports during the last 10 years show that in vitro germ cell derivation with proven functionality to generate a healthy offspring is possible in mice. However, differences in the embryo development and pluripotency potential between human and mouse make it difficult to extrapolate these results. Further efforts on both human and mouse in vitro models to obtain germ cells from pluripotent stem cells may help to elucidate how human physiological events take place; therefore, therapeutic strategies can also be considered.

The Effects of Modern-Day Cropland and Pasture Management on Vegetation Fire: An Earth System Modeling Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Rabin, S. S.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Pacala, S. W.

2014-12-01

Fire is a major component of the global carbon cycle, with some estimates of the associated emissions reaching 2.5 PgC/yr. This and the other impacts of biomass burning have driven efforts to improve its simulation in Earth system models. Recent global fire models usually include both bioclimatic and anthropogenic drivers of fire, with the latter (via population density and sometimes economic status) serving to increase or suppress burned area. Some models have added the representation of fire used in deforestation and cropland management, the extent and seasonal timing of which may not be accounted for by the usual approach to anthropogenic influence. Human land use can also limit fire by fragmenting landscapes, but this process is not included in most global models. Moreover, although people often use fire to manage grazing lands for livestock, these practices have not been explicitly modeled (except as performed by pre-industrial societies). This could be important for regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where the seasonality of pasture burning tends to differ from that of other lands, potentially influencing savanna-forest dynamics. Recent efforts elucidating the effects of cropland and pasture on fire regimes at regional scales provide insight into these processes. Using this new understanding, we have developed a fire model with structurally distinct modules for burning of croplands, pasture, and primary and secondary lands, as well as fire use for deforestation. Parameters for each are rigorously constrained using remote-sensing observations of burned area. This structure allows us to disentangle agricultural practices and fragmentation effects from the endogenous processes driving fire on non-agricultural land, resulting in a better ability to simulate how fire works at large scales. This is critical for modeling the future of fire and all the parts of the Earth system that it affects, including vegetation distributions, nutrient cycling, and biosphere

Acting and Teacher Education: Being Model for Identity Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kemal Sinan Özmen

2011-02-01

Full Text Available This study follows three pre-service teachers during three academic semesters in which they took an acting course for teachers and participated in practicum with a special focus on rehearsing and developing their teacher identities. In order to create the necessary context for them, an acting course for pre-service teacher education was designed in parallel with a model which is based on an influential acting theory. This model, namely the BEING (Believe, Experiment, Invent, Navigate, Generate, was also designed by the researcher. The incentive behind designing a model grounded on acting literature was that the relevant literature does not provide trainers with a universal model which can be referred as a manual for running and monitoring acting courses for teachers. In this case study, this model was also tested in terms of its applicability and functionality in practice. Based on analyses of audio taped interviews, session journals and reflections, the five stages of the BEING Model was found to be highly applicable and functional in terms of reflecting the natural development process of teacher identity development. Pre-service teachers displayed a significant development in communication skills and professional identities. Therefore, the BEING model provides a perspective and a philosophy of benefiting from acting literature for teacher educators with little or no knowledge on acting and theatre

Acting and Teacher Education: Being Model for Identity Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kemal Sinan Özmen

2011-04-01

Full Text Available This study follows three pre-service teachers during three academic semesters in which they took an acting course for teachers and participated in practicum with a special focus on rehearsing and developing their teacher identities. In order to create the necessary context for them, an acting course for pre-service teacher education was designed in parallel with a model which is based on an influential acting theory. This model, namely the BEING (Believe, Experiment, Invent, Navigate, Generate, was also designed by the researcher. The incentive behind designing a model grounded on acting literature was that the relevant literature does not provide trainers with a universal model which can be referred as a manual for running and monitoring acting courses for teachers. In this case study, this model was also tested in terms of its applicability and functionality in practice. Based on analyses of audio taped interviews, session journals and reflections, the five stages of the BEING Model was found to be highly applicable and functional in terms of reflecting the natural development process of teacher identity development. Pre-service teachers displayed a significant development in communication skills and professional identities. Therefore, the BEING model provides a perspective and a philosophy of benefiting from acting literature for teacher educators with little or no knowledge on acting and theatre.

Development of a global 1-D chemically radiatively coupled model and an introduction to the development of a chemically coupled General Circulation Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akiyoshi, H.

1997-01-01

A global one-dimensional, chemically and radiatively coupled model has been developed. The basic concept of the coupled model, definition of globally averaged zenith angles, the formulation of the model chemistry, radiation, the coupled processes, and profiles and diurnal variations of temperature and chemical species at a normal steady state are presented. Furthermore, a suddenly doubled CO 2 experiment and a Pinatubo aerosol increase experiment were performed with the model. The time scales of variations in ozone and temperature in the lower stratosphere of the coupled system in the doubled CO 2 experiment was long, due to a feedback process among ultra violet radiation, O(1D), NO y , NO x , and O 3 . From the Pinatubo aerosol experiment, a delay of maximum ozone decrease from the maximum aerosol loading is shown and discussed. Developments of 3-D chemical models with coupled processes are briefly described, and the ozone distribution from the first version of the 3-D model are presented. Chemical model development in National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) are briefly described. (author)

Recent development of hydrodynamic modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Hirano, Tetsufumi

2014-09-01

In this talk, I give an overview of recent development in hydrodynamic modeling of high-energy nuclear collisions. First, I briefly discuss about current situation of hydrodynamic modeling by showing results from the integrated dynamical approach in which Monte-Carlo calculation of initial conditions, quark-gluon fluid dynamics and hadronic cascading are combined. In particular, I focus on rescattering effects of strange hadrons on final observables. Next I highlight three topics in recent development in hydrodynamic modeling. These include (1) medium response to jet propagation in di-jet asymmetric events, (2) causal hydrodynamic fluctuation and its application to Bjorken expansion and (3) chiral magnetic wave from anomalous hydrodynamic simulations. (1) Recent CMS data suggest the existence of QGP response to propagation of jets. To investigate this phenomenon, we solve hydrodynamic equations with source term which exhibits deposition of energy and momentum from jets. We find a large number of low momentum particles are emitted at large angle from jet axis. This gives a novel interpretation of the CMS data. (2) It has been claimed that a matter created even in p-p/p-A collisions may behave like a fluid. However, fluctuation effects would be important in such a small system. We formulate relativistic fluctuating hydrodynamics and apply it to Bjorken expansion. We found the final multiplicity fluctuates around the mean value even if initial condition is fixed. This effect is relatively important in peripheral A-A collisions and p-p/p-A collisions. (3) Anomalous transport of the quark-gluon fluid is predicted when extremely high magnetic field is applied. We investigate this possibility by solving anomalous hydrodynamic equations. We found the difference of the elliptic flow parameter between positive and negative particles appears due to the chiral magnetic wave. Finally, I provide some personal perspective of hydrodynamic modeling of high energy nuclear collisions

LG Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) Model Development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haberman, Ben [LG Fuel Cell Systems Inc., North Canton, OH (United States); Martinez-Baca, Carlos [LG Fuel Cell Systems Inc., North Canton, OH (United States); Rush, Greg [LG Fuel Cell Systems Inc., North Canton, OH (United States)

2013-05-31

This report presents a summary of the work performed by LG Fuel Cell Systems Inc. during the project LG Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) Model Development (DOE Award Number: DE-FE0000773) which commenced on October 1, 2009 and was completed on March 31, 2013. The aim of this project is for LG Fuel Cell Systems Inc. (formerly known as Rolls-Royce Fuel Cell Systems (US) Inc.) (LGFCS) to develop a multi-physics solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) computer code (MPC) for performance calculations of the LGFCS fuel cell structure to support fuel cell product design and development. A summary of the initial stages of the project is provided which describes the MPC requirements that were developed and the selection of a candidate code, STAR-CCM+ (CD-adapco). This is followed by a detailed description of the subsequent work program including code enhancement and model verification and validation activities. Details of the code enhancements that were implemented to facilitate MPC SOFC simulations are provided along with a description of the models that were built using the MPC and validated against experimental data. The modeling work described in this report represents a level of calculation detail that has not been previously available within LGFCS.

Development of hydrogeological modelling tools based on NAMMU

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marsic, N. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Hartley, L.; Jackson, P.; Poole, M. [AEA Technology, Harwell (United Kingdom); Morvik, A. [Bergen Software Services International AS, Bergen (Norway)

2001-09-01

A number of relatively sophisticated hydrogeological models were developed within the SR 97 project to handle issues such as nesting of scales and the effects of salinity. However, these issues and others are considered of significant importance and generality to warrant further development of the hydrogeological methodology. Several such developments based on the NAMMU package are reported here: - Embedded grid: nesting of the regional- and site-scale models within the same numerical model has given greater consistency in the structural model representation and in the flow between scales. Since there is a continuous representation of the regional- and site-scales the modelling of pathways from the repository no longer has to be contained wholly by the site-scale region. This allows greater choice in the size of the site-scale. - Implicit Fracture Zones (IFZ): this method of incorporating the structural model is very efficient and allows changes to either the mesh or fracture zones to be implemented quickly. It also supports great flexibility in the properties of the structures and rock mass. - Stochastic fractures: new functionality has been added to IFZ to allow arbitrary combinations of stochastic or deterministic fracture zones with the rock-mass. Whether a fracture zone is modelled deterministically or stochastically its statistical properties can be defined independently. - Stochastic modelling: efficient methods for Monte-Carlo simulation of stochastic permeability fields have been implemented and tested on SKB's computers. - Visualisation: the visualisation tool Avizier for NAMMU has been enhanced such that it is efficient for checking models and presentation. - PROPER interface: NAMMU outputs pathlines in PROPER format so that it can be included in PA workflow. The developed methods are illustrated by application to stochastic nested modelling of the Beberg site using data from SR 97. The model properties were in accordance with the regional- and site

Development of hydrogeological modelling tools based on NAMMU

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marsic, N.; Hartley, L.; Jackson, P.; Poole, M.; Morvik, A.

2001-09-01

A number of relatively sophisticated hydrogeological models were developed within the SR 97 project to handle issues such as nesting of scales and the effects of salinity. However, these issues and others are considered of significant importance and generality to warrant further development of the hydrogeological methodology. Several such developments based on the NAMMU package are reported here: - Embedded grid: nesting of the regional- and site-scale models within the same numerical model has given greater consistency in the structural model representation and in the flow between scales. Since there is a continuous representation of the regional- and site-scales the modelling of pathways from the repository no longer has to be contained wholly by the site-scale region. This allows greater choice in the size of the site-scale. - Implicit Fracture Zones (IFZ): this method of incorporating the structural model is very efficient and allows changes to either the mesh or fracture zones to be implemented quickly. It also supports great flexibility in the properties of the structures and rock mass. - Stochastic fractures: new functionality has been added to IFZ to allow arbitrary combinations of stochastic or deterministic fracture zones with the rock-mass. Whether a fracture zone is modelled deterministically or stochastically its statistical properties can be defined independently. - Stochastic modelling: efficient methods for Monte-Carlo simulation of stochastic permeability fields have been implemented and tested on SKB's computers. - Visualisation: the visualisation tool Avizier for NAMMU has been enhanced such that it is efficient for checking models and presentation. - PROPER interface: NAMMU outputs pathlines in PROPER format so that it can be included in PA workflow. The developed methods are illustrated by application to stochastic nested modelling of the Beberg site using data from SR 97. The model properties were in accordance with the regional- and site

Development of Numerical Grids for UZ Flow and Transport Modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hinds, J.

2001-01-01

This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) describes the methods used to develop numerical grids of the unsaturated hydrogeologic system beneath Yucca Mountain. Numerical grid generation is an integral part of the development of a complex, three-dimensional (3-D) model, such as the Unsaturated-Zone Flow and Transport Model (UZ Model) of Yucca Mountain. The resulting numerical grids, developed using current geologic, hydrogeologic, and mineralogic data, provide the necessary framework to: (1) develop calibrated hydrogeologic property sets and flow fields, (2) test conceptual hypotheses of flow and transport, and (3) predict flow and transport behavior under a variety of climatic and thermal loading conditions. Revision 00 of the work described herein follows the planning and work direction outlined in the ''Development of Numerical Grids for UZ Flow and Transport Modeling'' (CRWMS M and O 1999c). The technical scope, content, and management of ICN 01 of this AMR is currently controlled by the planning document, ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone (UZ) Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (BSC 2001a). The scope for the TBV resolution actions in this ICN is described in the ''Technical Work Plan for: Integrated Management of Technical Product Input Department'' (BSC 2001 b, Addendum B, Section 4.1). The steps involved in numerical grid development include: (1) defining the location of important calibration features, (2) determining model grid layers and fault geometry based on the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), the Integrated Site Model (ISM), and definition of hydrogeologic units (HGUs), (3) analyzing and extracting GFM and ISM data pertaining to layer contacts and property distributions, (4) discretizing and refining the two-dimensional (2-D), plan-view numerical grid, (5) generating the 3-D grid with finer resolution at the repository horizon and within the Calico Hills nonwelded (CHn) hydrogeologic unit, and (6) formulating the dual-permeability mesh. The

Development of Wolsong Unit 2 Containment Analysis Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoon, Choi [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Jin, Ko Bong; Chan, Park Young [Hanbat National Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-05-15

To be prepared for the full scope safety analysis of Wolsong unit 2 with modified fuel, input decks for the various objectives, which can be read by GOTHIC 7.2b(QA), are developed and tested for the steady state simulation. A detailed nodalization of 39 control volumes and 92 flow paths is constructed to determine the differential pressure across internal walls or hydrogen concentration and distribution inside containment. A lumped model with 15 control volumes and 74 flow paths has also been developed to reduce the computer run time for the assessments in which the analysis results are not sensitive to detailed thermal hydraulic distribution inside containment such as peak pressure, pressure dependent signal and radionuclide release. The input data files provide simplified representations of the geometric layout of the containment building (volumes, dimensions, flow paths, doors, panels, etc.) and the performance characteristics of the various containment subsystems. The parameter values are based on best estimate or design values for that parameter. The analysis values are determined by conservatism depending on the analysis objective and may be different for various analysis objectives. Basic input decks of Wolsong unit 2 were developed for the various analysis purposes with GOTHIC 7.2b(QA). Depend on the analysis objective, two types of models are prepared. Detailed model models each confined room in the containment as a separate node. All of the geometric data are based on the drawings of Wolsong unit 2. Developed containment models are simulating the steady state well to the designated initial condition. These base models will be used for Wolsong unit 2 in case of safety analysis of full scope is needed.

Developing a Malaysia flood model

Science.gov (United States)

Haseldine, Lucy; Baxter, Stephen; Wheeler, Phil; Thomson, Tina

2014-05-01

Faced with growing exposures in Malaysia, insurers have a need for models to help them assess their exposure to flood losses. The need for an improved management of flood risks has been further highlighted by the 2011 floods in Thailand and recent events in Malaysia. The increasing demand for loss accumulation tools in Malaysia has lead to the development of the first nationwide probabilistic Malaysia flood model, which we present here. The model is multi-peril, including river flooding for thousands of kilometres of river and rainfall-driven surface water flooding in major cities, which may cause losses equivalent to river flood in some high-density urban areas. The underlying hazard maps are based on a 30m digital surface model (DSM) and 1D/2D hydraulic modelling in JFlow and RFlow. Key mitigation schemes such as the SMART tunnel and drainage capacities are also considered in the model. The probabilistic element of the model is driven by a stochastic event set based on rainfall data, hence enabling per-event and annual figures to be calculated for a specific insurance portfolio and a range of return periods. Losses are estimated via depth-damage vulnerability functions which link the insured damage to water depths for different property types in Malaysia. The model provides a unique insight into Malaysian flood risk profiles and provides insurers with return period estimates of flood damage and loss to property portfolios through loss exceedance curve outputs. It has been successfully validated against historic flood events in Malaysia and is now being successfully used by insurance companies in the Malaysian market to obtain reinsurance cover.

Turbulence models development and engineering applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groetzbach, G.; Ammann, T.; Dorr, B.; Hiltner, I.; Hofmann, S.; Kampczyk, M.; Kimhi, Y.; Seiter, C.; Woerner, M.; Alef, M.; Hennemuth, A.

1995-01-01

The FLUTAN code is used for analyzing the decay heat removal in new reactor concepts. The turbulence models applied in FLUTAN are improved by the development of the TURBIT code. TURBIT serves for a numerical simulation of turbulent channel flow. (orig.)

Wake models developed during the Wind Shadow project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Larsen, S.; Ott, S.; Pena, A.; Berg, J.; Nielsen, M.; Rathmann, O.; Joergensen, H.

2011-11-15

The Wind Shadow project has developed and validated improved models for determining the wakes losses, and thereby the array efficiency of very large, closely packed wind farms. The rationale behind the project has been that the existing software has been covering these types of wind farms poorly, both with respect to the densely packed turbines and the large fetches needed to describe the collective shadow effects of one farm to the next. Further the project has developed the necessary software for the use of the models. Guidelines with recommendations for the use of the models are included in the model deliverables. The project has been carried out as a collaborative project between Risoe DTU, DONG, Vattenfall, DNV and VESTAS, and it has been financed by energinet.dk grant no. 10086. (Author)

Developing a Domain Model for Relay Circuits

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haxthausen, Anne Elisabeth

2009-01-01

In this paper we stepwise develop a domain model for relay circuits as used in railway control systems. First we provide an abstract, property-oriented model of networks consisting of components that can be glued together with connectors. This model is strongly inspired by a network model...... for railways madeby Bjørner et.al., however our model is more general: the components can be of any kind and can later be refined to e.g. railway components or circuit components. Then we show how the abstract network model can be refined into an explicit model for relay circuits. The circuit model describes...... the statics as well as the dynamics of relay circuits, i.e. how a relay circuit can be composed legally from electrical components as well as how the components may change state over time. Finally the circuit model is transformed into an executable model, and we show how a concrete circuit can be defined...

Protein adsorption on nanoparticles: model development using computer simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shao, Qing; Hall, Carol K

2016-01-01

The adsorption of proteins on nanoparticles results in the formation of the protein corona, the composition of which determines how nanoparticles influence their biological surroundings. We seek to better understand corona formation by developing models that describe protein adsorption on nanoparticles using computer simulation results as data. Using a coarse-grained protein model, discontinuous molecular dynamics simulations are conducted to investigate the adsorption of two small proteins (Trp-cage and WW domain) on a model nanoparticle of diameter 10.0 nm at protein concentrations ranging from 0.5 to 5 mM. The resulting adsorption isotherms are well described by the Langmuir, Freundlich, Temkin and Kiselev models, but not by the Elovich, Fowler–Guggenheim and Hill–de Boer models. We also try to develop a generalized model that can describe protein adsorption equilibrium on nanoparticles of different diameters in terms of dimensionless size parameters. The simulation results for three proteins (Trp-cage, WW domain, and GB3) on four nanoparticles (diameter  =  5.0, 10.0, 15.0, and 20.0 nm) illustrate both the promise and the challenge associated with developing generalized models of protein adsorption on nanoparticles. (paper)

Development of 3D Oxide Fuel Mechanics Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spencer, B. W. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casagranda, A. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Pitts, S. A. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Jiang, W. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2017-07-27

This report documents recent work to improve the accuracy and robustness of the mechanical constitutive models used in the BISON fuel performance code. These developments include migration of the fuel mechanics models to be based on the MOOSE Tensor Mechanics module, improving the robustness of the smeared cracking model, implementing a capability to limit the time step size based on material model response, and improving the robustness of the return mapping iterations used in creep and plasticity models.

Modelling energy demand of developing countries: Are the specific features adequately captured?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.; Timilsina, Govinda R.

2010-01-01

This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are commonly used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early seventies, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sectoral representations produce more realistic projections as compared to the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context and institutionalizing the modelling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modelling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries.

Modelling energy demand of developing countries: Are the specific features adequately captured?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. [CEPMLP, University of Dundee, Dundee DD1 4HN (United Kingdom); Timilsina, Govinda R. [Development Research Group, The World Bank, Washington DC (United States)

2010-04-15

This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are commonly used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early seventies, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sectoral representations produce more realistic projections as compared to the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context and institutionalizing the modelling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modelling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries. (author)

Mathematical modeling of efficacy and safety for anticancer drugs clinical development.

Science.gov (United States)

Lavezzi, Silvia Maria; Borella, Elisa; Carrara, Letizia; De Nicolao, Giuseppe; Magni, Paolo; Poggesi, Italo

2018-01-01

Drug attrition in oncology clinical development is higher than in other therapeutic areas. In this context, pharmacometric modeling represents a useful tool to explore drug efficacy in earlier phases of clinical development, anticipating overall survival using quantitative model-based metrics. Furthermore, modeling approaches can be used to characterize earlier the safety and tolerability profile of drug candidates, and, thus, the risk-benefit ratio and the therapeutic index, supporting the design of optimal treatment regimens and accelerating the whole process of clinical drug development. Areas covered: Herein, the most relevant mathematical models used in clinical anticancer drug development during the last decade are described. Less recent models were considered in the review if they represent a standard for the analysis of certain types of efficacy or safety measures. Expert opinion: Several mathematical models have been proposed to predict overall survival from earlier endpoints and validate their surrogacy in demonstrating drug efficacy in place of overall survival. An increasing number of mathematical models have also been developed to describe the safety findings. Modeling has been extensively used in anticancer drug development to individualize dosing strategies based on patient characteristics, and design optimal dosing regimens balancing efficacy and safety.

Integrating Usability Evaluation into Model-Driven Video Game Development

OpenAIRE

Fernandez , Adrian; Insfran , Emilio; Abrahão , Silvia; Carsí , José ,; Montero , Emanuel

2012-01-01

Part 3: Short Papers; International audience; The increasing complexity of video game development highlights the need of design and evaluation methods for enhancing quality and reducing time and cost. In this context, Model-Driven Development approaches seem to be very promising since a video game can be obtained by transforming platform-independent models into platform-specific models that can be in turn transformed into code. Although this approach is started to being used for video game de...

Time dependent patient no-show predictive modelling development.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yu-Li; Hanauer, David A

2016-05-09

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to develop evident-based predictive no-show models considering patients' each past appointment status, a time-dependent component, as an independent predictor to improve predictability. Design/methodology/approach - A ten-year retrospective data set was extracted from a pediatric clinic. It consisted of 7,291 distinct patients who had at least two visits along with their appointment characteristics, patient demographics, and insurance information. Logistic regression was adopted to develop no-show models using two-thirds of the data for training and the remaining data for validation. The no-show threshold was then determined based on minimizing the misclassification of show/no-show assignments. There were a total of 26 predictive model developed based on the number of available past appointments. Simulation was employed to test the effective of each model on costs of patient wait time, physician idle time, and overtime. Findings - The results demonstrated the misclassification rate and the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic gradually improved as more appointment history was included until around the 20th predictive model. The overbooking method with no-show predictive models suggested incorporating up to the 16th model and outperformed other overbooking methods by as much as 9.4 per cent in the cost per patient while allowing two additional patients in a clinic day. Research limitations/implications - The challenge now is to actually implement the no-show predictive model systematically to further demonstrate its robustness and simplicity in various scheduling systems. Originality/value - This paper provides examples of how to build the no-show predictive models with time-dependent components to improve the overbooking policy. Accurately identifying scheduled patients' show/no-show status allows clinics to proactively schedule patients to reduce the negative impact of patient no-shows.

Automated data acquisition technology development:Automated modeling and control development

Science.gov (United States)

Romine, Peter L.

1995-01-01

This report documents the completion of, and improvements made to, the software developed for automated data acquisition and automated modeling and control development on the Texas Micro rackmounted PC's. This research was initiated because a need was identified by the Metal Processing Branch of NASA Marshall Space Flight Center for a mobile data acquisition and data analysis system, customized for welding measurement and calibration. Several hardware configurations were evaluated and a PC based system was chosen. The Welding Measurement System (WMS), is a dedicated instrument strickly for use of data acquisition and data analysis. In addition to the data acquisition functions described in this thesis, WMS also supports many functions associated with process control. The hardware and software requirements for an automated acquisition system for welding process parameters, welding equipment checkout, and welding process modeling were determined in 1992. From these recommendations, NASA purchased the necessary hardware and software. The new welding acquisition system is designed to collect welding parameter data and perform analysis to determine the voltage versus current arc-length relationship for VPPA welding. Once the results of this analysis are obtained, they can then be used to develop a RAIL function to control welding startup and shutdown without torch crashing.

Pig models on intestinal development and therapeutics.

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Lanmei; Yang, Huansheng; Li, Jianzhong; Li, Yali; Ding, Xueqing; Wu, Guoyao; Yin, Yulong

2017-12-01

The gastrointestinal tract plays a vital role in nutrient supply, digestion, and absorption, and has a crucial impact on the entire organism. Much attention is being paid to utilize animal models to study the pathogenesis of gastrointestinal diseases in response to intestinal development and health. The piglet has a body size similar to that of the human and is an omnivorous animal with comparable anatomy, nutritional requirements, and digestive and associated inflammatory processes, and displays similarities to the human intestinal microbial ecosystem, which make piglets more appropriate as an animal model for human than other non-primate animals. Therefore, the objective of this review is to summarize key attributes of the piglet model with which to study human intestinal development and intestinal health through probing into the etiology of several gastrointestinal diseases, thus providing a theoretical and hopefully practical, basis for further studies on mammalian nutrition, health, and disease, and therapeutics. Given the comparable nutritional requirements and strikingly similar brain developmental patterns between young piglets and humans, the piglet has been used as an important translational model for studying neurodevelopmental outcomes influenced by pediatric nutrition. Because of similarities in anatomy and physiology between pigs and mankind, more emphasises are put on how to use the piglet model for human organ transplantation research.

A Leadership Identity Development Model: Applications from a Grounded Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Komives, Susan R.; Mainella, Felicia C.; Longerbeam, Susan D.; Osteen, Laura; Owen, Julie E.

2006-01-01

This article describes a stage-based model of leadership identity development (LID) that resulted from a grounded theory study on developing a leadership identity (Komives, Owen, Longerbeam, Mainella, & Osteen, 2005). The LID model expands on the leadership identity stages, integrates the categories of the grounded theory into the LID model, and…

Current developments in soil organic matter modeling and the expansion of model applications: a review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campbell, Eleanor E; Paustian, Keith

2015-01-01

Soil organic matter (SOM) is an important natural resource. It is fundamental to soil and ecosystem functions across a wide range of scales, from site-specific soil fertility and water holding capacity to global biogeochemical cycling. It is also a highly complex material that is sensitive to direct and indirect human impacts. In SOM research, simulation models play an important role by providing a mathematical framework to integrate, examine, and test the understanding of SOM dynamics. Simulation models of SOM are also increasingly used in more ‘applied’ settings to evaluate human impacts on ecosystem function, and to manage SOM for greenhouse gas mitigation, improved soil health, and sustainable use as a natural resource. Within this context, there is a need to maintain a robust connection between scientific developments in SOM modeling approaches and SOM model applications. This need forms the basis of this review. In this review we first provide an overview of SOM modeling, focusing on SOM theory, data-model integration, and model development as evidenced by a quantitative review of SOM literature. Second, we present the landscape of SOM model applications, focusing on examples in climate change policy. We conclude by discussing five areas of recent developments in SOM modeling including: (1) microbial roles in SOM stabilization; (2) modeling SOM saturation kinetics; (3) temperature controls on decomposition; (4) SOM dynamics in deep soil layers; and (5) SOM representation in earth system models. Our aim is to comprehensively connect SOM model development to its applications, revealing knowledge gaps in need of focused interdisciplinary attention and exposing pitfalls that, if avoided, can lead to best use of SOM models to support policy initiatives and sustainable land management solutions. (topical review)

A Framework for Developing the Structure of Public Health Economic Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Squires, Hazel; Chilcott, James; Akehurst, Ronald; Burr, Jennifer; Kelly, Michael P

2016-01-01

A conceptual modeling framework is a methodology that assists modelers through the process of developing a model structure. Public health interventions tend to operate in dynamically complex systems. Modeling public health interventions requires broader considerations than clinical ones. Inappropriately simple models may lead to poor validity and credibility, resulting in suboptimal allocation of resources. This article presents the first conceptual modeling framework for public health economic evaluation. The framework presented here was informed by literature reviews of the key challenges in public health economic modeling and existing conceptual modeling frameworks; qualitative research to understand the experiences of modelers when developing public health economic models; and piloting a draft version of the framework. The conceptual modeling framework comprises four key principles of good practice and a proposed methodology. The key principles are that 1) a systems approach to modeling should be taken; 2) a documented understanding of the problem is imperative before and alongside developing and justifying the model structure; 3) strong communication with stakeholders and members of the team throughout model development is essential; and 4) a systematic consideration of the determinants of health is central to identifying the key impacts of public health interventions. The methodology consists of four phases: phase A, aligning the framework with the decision-making process; phase B, identifying relevant stakeholders; phase C, understanding the problem; and phase D, developing and justifying the model structure. Key areas for further research involve evaluation of the framework in diverse case studies and the development of methods for modeling individual and social behavior. This approach could improve the quality of Public Health economic models, supporting efficient allocation of scarce resources. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics

Ecological aspects in sustainable development model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kurlapov, L.I.

1996-01-01

Environment problems are caused by intensive use of natural resources due to scientific progress in combination with the present structure of unlimited consumption. To prevent the impending ecological disaster a model of sustainable development has been worked out. It is aimed at satisfying the ever-growing requirements of the modern man without damaging the environment. Scientifically grounded use of nature mat contribute to solution of the problem. The acceptable use of nature should take account of the land ecosystem resources which is ensured by reliable model including flow balance in particular. Irreversible flows generate entropy which could be the universal measure of technic genetics impact. Entropic condition of the acceptable (sustainable) development are started: techno-genic entropy production must be less than natural entropy production. Particular sciences should be re-oriented towards environmental problems. Environmental monitoring strategy should provide for determination of macro properties as well as flows. (author)

Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, Naomi J; Marion, Glenn; Davidson, Ross S; White, Piran C L; Hutchings, Michael R

2012-03-06

Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed.

Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ross S. Davidson

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed.

A descriptive ecosystem model - a strategy for model development during site investigations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loefgren, Anders

2003-09-01

This report describes a strategy for the development of a site descriptive model for the surface ecosystem on the potential deep repository sites. The surface ecosystem embraces many disciplines, and these have to be identified, described and integrated in order to construct a descriptive ecosystem model that describes and quantifies biotic and abiotic patterns and processes of importance for the ecosystem on the site. The descriptive model includes both present day conditions and historical information. The descriptive ecosystem model will be used to supply input data for the safety assessment and to serve as the baseline model for devising a monitoring program to detect short-term disturbances caused first by the site investigations and later by the construction of the deep repository. Furthermore, it will serve as a reference for future comparisons to determine more long-term effects or changes caused by the deep repository. The report adopts a non-site-specific approach focusing on the following aims: 1. To present and define the properties that will constitute the descriptive ecosystem model. 2. To present a methodology for determining those properties. 3. To describe and develop the framework for the descriptive ecosystem model by integrating the different properties. 4. To present vital data from other site descriptive models such as those for geology or hydrogeology that interacts with and affects the descriptive ecosystem model. The properties are described under four different sections: general physical properties of the landscape, the terrestrial system, the limnic system and the marine system. These headings are further subdivided into entities that integrate properties in relation to processes

A descriptive ecosystem model - a strategy for model development during site investigations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loefgren, Anders [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Botany; Lindborg, Tobias [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

2003-09-01

This report describes a strategy for the development of a site descriptive model for the surface ecosystem on the potential deep repository sites. The surface ecosystem embraces many disciplines, and these have to be identified, described and integrated in order to construct a descriptive ecosystem model that describes and quantifies biotic and abiotic patterns and processes of importance for the ecosystem on the site. The descriptive model includes both present day conditions and historical information. The descriptive ecosystem model will be used to supply input data for the safety assessment and to serve as the baseline model for devising a monitoring program to detect short-term disturbances caused first by the site investigations and later by the construction of the deep repository. Furthermore, it will serve as a reference for future comparisons to determine more long-term effects or changes caused by the deep repository. The report adopts a non-site-specific approach focusing on the following aims: 1. To present and define the properties that will constitute the descriptive ecosystem model. 2. To present a methodology for determining those properties. 3. To describe and develop the framework for the descriptive ecosystem model by integrating the different properties. 4. To present vital data from other site descriptive models such as those for geology or hydrogeology that interacts with and affects the descriptive ecosystem model. The properties are described under four different sections: general physical properties of the landscape, the terrestrial system, the limnic system and the marine system. These headings are further subdivided into entities that integrate properties in relation to processes.

Some Recent Developments in Turbulence Closure Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Durbin, Paul A.

2018-01-01

Turbulence closure models are central to a good deal of applied computational fluid dynamical analysis. Closure modeling endures as a productive area of research. This review covers recent developments in elliptic relaxation and elliptic blending models, unified rotation and curvature corrections, transition prediction, hybrid simulation, and data-driven methods. The focus is on closure models in which transport equations are solved for scalar variables, such as the turbulent kinetic energy, a timescale, or a measure of anisotropy. Algebraic constitutive representations are reviewed for their role in relating scalar closures to the Reynolds stress tensor. Seamless and nonzonal methods, which invoke a single closure model, are reviewed, especially detached eddy simulation (DES) and adaptive DES. Other topics surveyed include data-driven modeling and intermittency and laminar fluctuation models for transition prediction. The review concludes with an outlook.

Calibration and Validation of Tundra Plant Functional Type Fractional Cover Mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Macander, M. J.; Nelson, P.; Frost, G. V., Jr.

2017-12-01

Fractional cover maps are being developed for selected tundra plant functional types (PFTs) across >500,000 sq. km of arctic Alaska and adjacent Canada at 30 m resolution. Training and validation data include a field-based training dataset based on point-intercept sampling method at hundreds of plots spanning bioclimatic and geomorphic gradients. We also compiled 50 blocks of 1-5 cm resolution RGB image mosaics in Alaska (White Mountains, North Slope, and Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta) and the Yukon Territory. The mosaics and associated surface and canopy height models were developed using a consumer drone and structure from motion processing. We summarized both the in situ measurements and drone imagery to determine cover of two PFTs: Low and Tall Deciduous Shrub, and Light Fruticose/Foliose Lichen. We applied these data to train 2 m (limited extent) and 30 m (wall to wall) maps of PFT fractional cover for shrubs and lichen. Predictors for 2 m models were commercial satellite imagery such as WorldView-2 and Worldview-3, analyzed on the ABoVE Science Cloud. Predictors for 30 m models were primarily reflectance composites and spectral metrics developed from Landsat imagery, using Google Earth Engine. We compared the performance of models developed from the in situ and drone-derived training data and identify best practices to improve the performance and efficiency of arctic PFT fractional cover mapping.

Limitations of JEDI Models | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models |

Science.gov (United States)

Group's IMPLAN accounting software. For JEDI, these are updated every two years for the best available -output modeling remains a widely used methodology for measuring economic development activity. Definition definition of the geographic area under consideration. Datasets of multipliers from IMPLAN are available at

International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2016-09-01

International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy projects. Building on a similar model for the United States, I-JEDI was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under the U.S. government's Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support partner countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector.

Historical development of entrainment models for Hudson River striped bass

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Christensen, S.W.; Englert, T.L.

1988-01-01

In the mid-1960s, concerns surfaced regarding entrainment and impingement of young-of-the-year (age-0) striped bass by electric power generating facilities on the Hudson River. These concerns stimulated the development of increasingly complex models to evaluate the impacts of these facilities. The earliest simplistic formulas, based on empirical data, proved inadequate because of conceptual shortcomings, incomplete development, and lack of data. By 1972, complex transport models based on biological and hydrodynamic principles had been developed and applied by scientists representing both the utilities and the government. Disagreements about the acceptability of these models spurred the development of even more complex models. The entrainment models stimulated the collection of substantial amounts of field data to define the spatial distributions and entrainment survival of early life stages. As the difficulties of accounting for the movement of early life stages from hydrodynamic principles became more evident and as more field data became available, simpler empirical modeling approaches became both practical and defensible. Both empirical and hydrodynamic modeling approaches were applied during the US Environmental Protection Agency's hearings on the Hudson River power case (1977-1980). The main lessons learned from the experience with entrainment-impingement modeling are that complex mechanistic models are not necessarily better than simpler empirical models for young fish, and that care must be taken to construct even the simple models correctly. 29 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

Energy and development : A modelling approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Ruijven, B.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304834521

2008-01-01

Rapid economic growth of developing countries like India and China implies that these countries become important actors in the global energy system. Examples of this impact are the present day oil shortages and rapidly increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. Global energy models are used explore

Evolutionary modelling of transitions to sustainable development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Safarzynska, K.

2010-01-01

This thesis has examined how evolutionary economics can contribute to modelling the micromechanisms that underlie transitions towards sustainable development. In general, transitions are fundamental or structural system changes. They involve, or even require, escaping lock-in of dominant, environmentally unsustainable technologies, introducing major technical or social innovations, and changing prevailing social practices and structures. Due to the complexity of socioeconomic interactions, it is not always possible to identify, and thus target with appropriate policy instruments, causes of specific unsustainable patterns of behaviour. Formal modelling exercises can help improve our understanding of the interaction of various transition mechanisms which are otherwise difficult to grasp intuitively. They allow exploring effects of policy interventions in complex systems. However, existing models of transitions focus on social phenomena and seldom address economic problems. As opposed, mainstream (neoclassical) economic models of technological change do not account for social interactions, and changing heterogeneity of users and their perspectives - even though all of these can influence the direction of innovations and patterns of socio-technological development. Evolutionary economics offers an approach that goes beyond neoclassical economics - in the sense of employing more realistic assumptions regarding the behaviour and heterogeneity of consumers, firms and investors. It can complement current transition models by providing them with a better understanding of associated economic dynamics. In this thesis, formal models were proposed to illustrate the usefulness of a range of evolutionary-economic techniques for modelling transitions. Modelling exercises aimed to explain the core properties of socio-economic systems, such as lock-in, path-dependence, coevolution, group selection and recombinant innovation. The studies collected in this dissertation illustrate that

Development of bubble-induced turbulence model for advanced two-fluid model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hosoi, Hideaki; Yoshida, Hiroyuki

2011-01-01

A two-fluid model can simulate two-phase flow by computational cost less than detailed two-phase flow simulation method such as interface tracking method. The two-fluid model is therefore useful for thermal hydraulic analysis in the large-scale domain such as rod bundles. However, since the two-fluid model includes a lot of constitutive equations verified by use of experimental results, it has problems that the result of analyses depends on accuracy of the constitutive equations. To solve these problems, an advanced two-fluid model has been developed by Japan Atomic Energy Agency. In this model, interface tracking method is combined with two-fluid model to accurately predict large interface structure behavior. Liquid clusters and bubbles larger than a computational cell are calculated using the interface tracking method, and those smaller than the cell are simulated by the two-fluid model. The constitutive equations to evaluate the effects of small bubbles or droplets on two-phase flow are also required in the advanced two-fluid model, just as with the conventional two-fluid model. However, the dependency of small bubbles and droplets on two-phase flow characteristics is relatively small, and fewer experimental results are required to verify the characteristics of large interface structures. Turbulent dispersion force model is one of the most important constitutive equations for the advanced two-fluid model. The turbulent dispersion force model has been developed by many researchers for the conventional two-fluid model. However, existing models implicitly include the effects of large bubbles and the deformation of bubbles, and are unfortunately not applicable to the advanced two-fluid model. In the previous study, the authors suggested the turbulent dispersion force model based on the analogy of Brownian motion. And the authors improved the turbulent dispersion force model in consideration of bubble-induced turbulence to improve the analysis results for small

The Cognitive Modeling of Development of Tourism Sphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Los Vita O.

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The article explores the inter-sectoral interaction in the tourism sphere, which is based on the application of cognitive modeling. The authors consider the interaction of powers (political environment, tourism (tourism business, business (socio-economic environment and ecology (ecological environment. The ecology is identified as the exceptional decisive factor in creating an enabling environment for the development of the market for tourism services. A static analysis of the cognitive model was carried out, which revealed 624 contours, of which 473 were stabilizing and 151 were destabilizing. Based on results of the systemic characterizations of the cognitive model, it was found that the interaction between the two sectors, tourism (tourist business and business (socio-economic environment needs special attention. A dynamic analysis of the built cognitive model was carried out using the method of impulse processes that helped to generate alternative scenarios for the development of tourism services. As a result, it has been found that increased investment in restaurant and hotel activities facilitates the increase in the level of development of market for tourism services for one period earlier than the increase in financing tourism sphere from the budget.

Development of a dynamic computational model of social cognitive theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Riley, William T; Martin, Cesar A; Rivera, Daniel E; Hekler, Eric B; Adams, Marc A; Buman, Matthew P; Pavel, Misha; King, Abby C

2016-12-01

Social cognitive theory (SCT) is among the most influential theories of behavior change and has been used as the conceptual basis of health behavior interventions for smoking cessation, weight management, and other health behaviors. SCT and other behavior theories were developed primarily to explain differences between individuals, but explanatory theories of within-person behavioral variability are increasingly needed as new technologies allow for intensive longitudinal measures and interventions adapted from these inputs. These within-person explanatory theoretical applications can be modeled as dynamical systems. SCT constructs, such as reciprocal determinism, are inherently dynamical in nature, but SCT has not been modeled as a dynamical system. This paper describes the development of a dynamical system model of SCT using fluid analogies and control systems principles drawn from engineering. Simulations of this model were performed to assess if the model performed as predicted based on theory and empirical studies of SCT. This initial model generates precise and testable quantitative predictions for future intensive longitudinal research. Dynamic modeling approaches provide a rigorous method for advancing health behavior theory development and refinement and for guiding the development of more potent and efficient interventions.

Developing a facilitation model to promote organisational development in primary care practices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elwyn Glyn

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The relationship between effective organisation of general practices and health improvement is widely accepted. The Maturity Matrix is an instrument designed to assess organisational development in general practice settings and to stimulate quality improvement. It is undertaken by a practice team with the aid of a facilitator. There is a tradition in the primary care systems in many countries of using practice visitors to educate practice teams about how to improve. However the role of practice visitors as facilitators who enable teams to plan practice-led organisational development using quality improvement instruments is less well understood. The objectives of the study were to develop and explore a facilitation model to support practice teams in stimulating organisational development using a quality improvement instrument called the Maturity Matrix. A qualitative study based on transcript analysis was adopted. Method A model of facilitation was constructed based on a review of relevant literature. Audio tapes of Maturity Matrix assessment sessions with general practices were transcribed and facilitator skills were compared to the model. The sample consisted of two facilitators working with twelve general practices based in UK primary care. Results The facilitation model suggested that four areas describing eighteen skills were important. The four areas are structuring the session, obtaining consensus, handling group dynamics and enabling team learning. Facilitators effectively employed skills associated with the first three areas, but less able to consistently stimulate team learning. Conclusion This study suggests that facilitators need careful preparation for their role and practices need protected time in order to make best use of practice-led quality improvement instruments. The role of practice visitor as a facilitator is becoming important as the need to engender ownership of the quality improvement process by

Developing a facilitation model to promote organisational development in primary care practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Rhydderch, Melody; Edwards, Adrian; Marshall, Martin; Elwyn, Glyn; Grol, Richard

2006-06-19

The relationship between effective organisation of general practices and health improvement is widely accepted. The Maturity Matrix is an instrument designed to assess organisational development in general practice settings and to stimulate quality improvement. It is undertaken by a practice team with the aid of a facilitator. There is a tradition in the primary care systems in many countries of using practice visitors to educate practice teams about how to improve. However the role of practice visitors as facilitators who enable teams to plan practice-led organisational development using quality improvement instruments is less well understood. The objectives of the study were to develop and explore a facilitation model to support practice teams in stimulating organisational development using a quality improvement instrument called the Maturity Matrix. A qualitative study based on transcript analysis was adopted. A model of facilitation was constructed based on a review of relevant literature. Audio tapes of Maturity Matrix assessment sessions with general practices were transcribed and facilitator skills were compared to the model. The sample consisted of two facilitators working with twelve general practices based in UK primary care. The facilitation model suggested that four areas describing eighteen skills were important. The four areas are structuring the session, obtaining consensus, handling group dynamics and enabling team learning. Facilitators effectively employed skills associated with the first three areas, but less able to consistently stimulate team learning. This study suggests that facilitators need careful preparation for their role and practices need protected time in order to make best use of practice-led quality improvement instruments. The role of practice visitor as a facilitator is becoming important as the need to engender ownership of the quality improvement process by practices increases.

Performance of fire behavior fuel models developed for the Rothermel Surface Fire Spread Model

Science.gov (United States)

Robert Ziel; W. Matt Jolly

2009-01-01

In 2005, 40 new fire behavior fuel models were published for use with the Rothermel Surface Fire Spread Model. These new models are intended to augment the original 13 developed in 1972 and 1976. As a compiled set of quantitative fuel descriptions that serve as input to the Rothermel model, the selected fire behavior fuel model has always been critical to the resulting...

Research on the Development of E-commerce Model of Agricultural Products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huo Yaping

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In recent years, electronic commerce of agricultural products has developed rapidly. In the development process of electronic commerce of agricultural products,many classic cases and business models have emerged. Such as tootoo industrial commune model (product drive type, Original life model (marketing driven type, Suichang model (service platform type. The author analyzes and compares each model from 7 aspects, and summarizes their differences and links. Finally, The author puts forward suggestions on the development of electronic commerce of agricultural products in china.

Game dynamic model for yeast development.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yuanyuan; Wu, Zhijun

2012-07-01

Game theoretic models, along with replicator equations, have been applied successfully to the study of evolution of populations of competing species, including the growth of a population, the reaching of the population to an equilibrium state, and the evolutionary stability of the state. In this paper, we analyze a game model proposed by Gore et al. (Nature 456:253-256, 2009) in their recent study on the co-development of two mixed yeast strains. We examine the mathematical properties of this model with varying experimental parameters. We simulate the growths of the yeast strains and compare them with the experimental results. We also compute and analyze the equilibrium state of the system and prove that it is asymptotically and evolutionarily stable.

Main principles of developing exploitation models of semiconductor devices

Science.gov (United States)

Gradoboev, A. V.; Simonova, A. V.

2018-05-01

The paper represents primary tasks, solutions of which allow to develop the exploitation modes of semiconductor devices taking into account complex and combined influence of ionizing irradiation and operation factors. The structure of the exploitation model of the semiconductor device is presented, which is based on radiation and reliability models. Furthermore, it was shown that the exploitation model should take into account complex and combine influence of various ionizing irradiation types and operation factors. The algorithm of developing the exploitation model of the semiconductor devices is proposed. The possibility of creating the radiation model of Schottky barrier diode, Schottky field-effect transistor and Gunn diode is shown based on the available experimental data. The basic exploitation model of IR-LEDs based upon double AlGaAs heterostructures is represented. The practical application of the exploitation models will allow to output the electronic products with guaranteed operational properties.

Report on the model developments in the sectoral assessments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iglesias, Ana; Termansen, Mette; Bouwer, Laurens

2014-01-01

into the economic assessments. At the same time, the models will link to the case studies in two ways. First, they use the data in the case studies for model validation and then they provide information to inform stakeholders on adaptation strategies. Therefore, Deliverable 3.2 aims to address three main questions......The Objective of this Deliverable D3.2 is to describe the models developed in BASE that is, the experimental setup for the sectoral modelling. The model development described in this deliverable will then be implemented in the adaptation and economic analysis in WP6 in order to integrate adaptation......: How to address climate adaptation options with the sectoral bottom-up models? - This includes a quantification of the costs of adaptation with the sectoral models, in monetary terms or in other measures of costs. The benefits in this framework will be the avoided damages, therefore a measure...