CAD Parts-Based Assembly Modeling by Probabilistic Reasoning

KAUST Repository

Zhang, Kai-Ke; Hu, Kai-Mo; Yin, Li-Cheng; Yan, Dongming; Wang, Bin

2016-01-01

Nowadays, increasing amount of parts and sub-assemblies are publicly available, which can be used directly for product development instead of creating from scratch. In this paper, we propose an interactive design framework for efficient and smart assembly modeling, in order to improve the design efficiency. Our approach is based on a probabilistic reasoning. Given a collection of industrial assemblies, we learn a probabilistic graphical model from the relationships between the parts of assemblies. Then in the modeling stage, this probabilistic model is used to suggest the most likely used parts compatible with the current assembly. Finally, the parts are assembled under certain geometric constraints. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework through a variety of assembly models produced by our prototype system. © 2015 IEEE.

Probabilistic, meso-scale flood loss modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

Flood risk analyses are an important basis for decisions on flood risk management and adaptation. However, such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments and even more for flood loss modelling. State of the art in flood loss modelling is still the use of simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood loss models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we demonstrate and evaluate the upscaling of the approach to the meso-scale, namely on the basis of land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany (Botto et al. submitted). The application of bagging decision tree based loss models provide a probability distribution of estimated loss per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight deterministic loss models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of loss estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation approach is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. References: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Botto A, Kreibich H, Merz B, Schröter K (submitted) Probabilistic, multi-variable flood loss modelling on the meso-scale with BT-FLEMO. Risk Analysis.

Transitive probabilistic CLIR models.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kraaij, W.; de Jong, Franciska M.G.

2004-01-01

Transitive translation could be a useful technique to enlarge the number of supported language pairs for a cross-language information retrieval (CLIR) system in a cost-effective manner. The paper describes several setups for transitive translation based on probabilistic translation models. The

Modeling code-interactions in bilingual word recognition: Recent empirical studies and simulations with BIA+

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lam, K.J.Y.; Dijkstra, A.F.J.

2010-01-01

Daily conversations contain many repetitions of identical and similar word forms. For bilinguals, the words can even come from the same or different languages. How do such repetitions affect the human word recognition system? The Bilingual Interactive Activation Plus (BIA+) model provides a

Bilingual Language Switching: Production vs. Recognition

Science.gov (United States)

Mosca, Michela; de Bot, Kees

2017-01-01

This study aims at assessing how bilinguals select words in the appropriate language in production and recognition while minimizing interference from the non-appropriate language. Two prominent models are considered which assume that when one language is in use, the other is suppressed. The Inhibitory Control (IC) model suggests that, in both production and recognition, the amount of inhibition on the non-target language is greater for the stronger compared to the weaker language. In contrast, the Bilingual Interactive Activation (BIA) model proposes that, in language recognition, the amount of inhibition on the weaker language is stronger than otherwise. To investigate whether bilingual language production and recognition can be accounted for by a single model of bilingual processing, we tested a group of native speakers of Dutch (L1), advanced speakers of English (L2) in a bilingual recognition and production task. Specifically, language switching costs were measured while participants performed a lexical decision (recognition) and a picture naming (production) task involving language switching. Results suggest that while in language recognition the amount of inhibition applied to the non-appropriate language increases along with its dominance as predicted by the IC model, in production the amount of inhibition applied to the non-relevant language is not related to language dominance, but rather it may be modulated by speakers' unconscious strategies to foster the weaker language. This difference indicates that bilingual language recognition and production might rely on different processing mechanisms and cannot be accounted within one of the existing models of bilingual language processing. PMID:28638361

Efficient probabilistic model checking on general purpose graphic processors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bosnacki, D.; Edelkamp, S.; Sulewski, D.; Pasareanu, C.S.

2009-01-01

We present algorithms for parallel probabilistic model checking on general purpose graphic processing units (GPGPUs). For this purpose we exploit the fact that some of the basic algorithms for probabilistic model checking rely on matrix vector multiplication. Since this kind of linear algebraic

The Impact of the "First Language First" Model on Vocabulary Development among Preschool Bilingual Children

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Mila

2014-01-01

The aim of this exploratory study was to examine the role of the "First Language First" model for preschool bilingual education in the development of vocabulary depth. The languages studied were Russian (L1) and Hebrew (L2) among bilingual children aged 4-5 years in Israel. According to this model, the children's first language of…

Assessing multilingual children: disentangling bilingualism from language impairment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Armon-Lotem, S.; de Jong, J.; Meir, N.

2015-01-01

This book presents a comprehensive set of tools for assessing the linguistic abilities of bilingual children. It aims to disentangle effects of bilingualism from those of Specific Language Impairment (SLI), making use of both models of bilingualism and models of language impairment.

Probabilistic Models for Solar Particle Events

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, James H., Jr.; Dietrich, W. F.; Xapsos, M. A.; Welton, A. M.

2009-01-01

Probabilistic Models of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are used in space mission design studies to provide a description of the worst-case radiation environment that the mission must be designed to tolerate.The models determine the worst-case environment using a description of the mission and a user-specified confidence level that the provided environment will not be exceeded. This poster will focus on completing the existing suite of models by developing models for peak flux and event-integrated fluence elemental spectra for the Z>2 elements. It will also discuss methods to take into account uncertainties in the data base and the uncertainties resulting from the limited number of solar particle events in the database. These new probabilistic models are based on an extensive survey of SPE measurements of peak and event-integrated elemental differential energy spectra. Attempts are made to fit the measured spectra with eight different published models. The model giving the best fit to each spectrum is chosen and used to represent that spectrum for any energy in the energy range covered by the measurements. The set of all such spectral representations for each element is then used to determine the worst case spectrum as a function of confidence level. The spectral representation that best fits these worst case spectra is found and its dependence on confidence level is parameterized. This procedure creates probabilistic models for the peak and event-integrated spectra.

Probabilistic Model Development

Science.gov (United States)

Adam, James H., Jr.

2010-01-01

Objective: Develop a Probabilistic Model for the Solar Energetic Particle Environment. Develop a tool to provide a reference solar particle radiation environment that: 1) Will not be exceeded at a user-specified confidence level; 2) Will provide reference environments for: a) Peak flux; b) Event-integrated fluence; and c) Mission-integrated fluence. The reference environments will consist of: a) Elemental energy spectra; b) For protons, helium and heavier ions.

Semantic facilitation in bilingual first language acquisition.

Science.gov (United States)

Bilson, Samuel; Yoshida, Hanako; Tran, Crystal D; Woods, Elizabeth A; Hills, Thomas T

2015-07-01

Bilingual first language learners face unique challenges that may influence the rate and order of early word learning relative to monolinguals. A comparison of the productive vocabularies of 435 children between the ages of 6 months and 7 years-181 of which were bilingual English learners-found that monolinguals learned both English words and all-language concepts faster than bilinguals. However, bilinguals showed an enhancement of an effect previously found in monolinguals-the preference for learning words with more associative cues. Though both monolinguals and bilinguals were best fit by a similar model of word learning, semantic network structure and growth indicated that the two groups were learning English words in a different order. Further, in comparison with a model of two-monolinguals-in-one-mind, bilinguals overproduced translational equivalents. Our results support an emergent account of bilingual first language acquisition, where learning a word in one language facilitates its acquisition in a second language. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH PROBABILISTIC FAILURE MODELING OF DIGITAL SYSTEMS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

CHU, T.L.; MARTINEZ-GURIDI, G.; LIHNER, J.; OVERLAND, D.

2004-01-01

The current U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing process of instrumentation and control (I and C) systems is based on deterministic requirements, e.g., single failure criteria, and defense in depth and diversity. Probabilistic considerations can be used as supplements to the deterministic process. The National Research Council has recommended development of methods for estimating failure probabilities of digital systems, including commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) equipment, for use in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). NRC staff has developed informal qualitative and quantitative requirements for PRA modeling of digital systems. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has performed a review of the-state-of-the-art of the methods and tools that can potentially be used to model digital systems. The objectives of this paper are to summarize the review, discuss the issues associated with probabilistic modeling of digital systems, and identify potential areas of research that would enhance the state of the art toward a satisfactory modeling method that could be integrated with a typical probabilistic risk assessment

Probabilistic Model for Fatigue Crack Growth in Welded Bridge Details

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Yalamas, Thierry

2013-01-01

In the present paper a probabilistic model for fatigue crack growth in welded steel details in road bridges is presented. The probabilistic model takes the influence of bending stresses in the joints into account. The bending stresses can either be introduced by e.g. misalignment or redistribution...... of stresses in the structure. The fatigue stress ranges are estimated from traffic measurements and a generic bridge model. Based on the probabilistic models for the resistance and load the reliability is estimated for a typical welded steel detail. The results show that large misalignments in the joints can...

Probabilistic escalation modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Korneliussen, G.; Eknes, M.L.; Haugen, K.; Selmer-Olsen, S. [Det Norske Veritas, Oslo (Norway)

1997-12-31

This paper describes how structural reliability methods may successfully be applied within quantitative risk assessment (QRA) as an alternative to traditional event tree analysis. The emphasis is on fire escalation in hydrocarbon production and processing facilities. This choice was made due to potential improvements over current QRA practice associated with both the probabilistic approach and more detailed modelling of the dynamics of escalating events. The physical phenomena important for the events of interest are explicitly modelled as functions of time. Uncertainties are represented through probability distributions. The uncertainty modelling enables the analysis to be simple when possible and detailed when necessary. The methodology features several advantages compared with traditional risk calculations based on event trees. (Author)

Integration of Advanced Probabilistic Analysis Techniques with Multi-Physics Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cetiner, Mustafa Sacit; none,; Flanagan, George F. [ORNL; Poore III, Willis P. [ORNL; Muhlheim, Michael David [ORNL

2014-07-30

An integrated simulation platform that couples probabilistic analysis-based tools with model-based simulation tools can provide valuable insights for reactive and proactive responses to plant operating conditions. The objective of this work is to demonstrate the benefits of a partial implementation of the Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Detailed Framework Specification through the coupling of advanced PRA capabilities and accurate multi-physics plant models. Coupling a probabilistic model with a multi-physics model will aid in design, operations, and safety by providing a more accurate understanding of plant behavior. This represents the first attempt at actually integrating these two types of analyses for a control system used for operations, on a faster than real-time basis. This report documents the development of the basic communication capability to exchange data with the probabilistic model using Reliability Workbench (RWB) and the multi-physics model using Dymola. The communication pathways from injecting a fault (i.e., failing a component) to the probabilistic and multi-physics models were successfully completed. This first version was tested with prototypic models represented in both RWB and Modelica. First, a simple event tree/fault tree (ET/FT) model was created to develop the software code to implement the communication capabilities between the dynamic-link library (dll) and RWB. A program, written in C#, successfully communicates faults to the probabilistic model through the dll. A systems model of the Advanced Liquid-Metal Reactor–Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module (ALMR-PRISM) design developed under another DOE project was upgraded using Dymola to include proper interfaces to allow data exchange with the control application (ConApp). A program, written in C+, successfully communicates faults to the multi-physics model. The results of the example simulation were successfully plotted.

Undecidability of model-checking branching-time properties of stateless probabilistic pushdown process

OpenAIRE

Lin, T.

2014-01-01

In this paper, we settle a problem in probabilistic verification of infinite--state process (specifically, {\\it probabilistic pushdown process}). We show that model checking {\\it stateless probabilistic pushdown process} (pBPA) against {\\it probabilistic computational tree logic} (PCTL) is undecidable.

Probabilistic language models in cognitive neuroscience: Promises and pitfalls.

Science.gov (United States)

Armeni, Kristijan; Willems, Roel M; Frank, Stefan L

2017-12-01

Cognitive neuroscientists of language comprehension study how neural computations relate to cognitive computations during comprehension. On the cognitive part of the equation, it is important that the computations and processing complexity are explicitly defined. Probabilistic language models can be used to give a computationally explicit account of language complexity during comprehension. Whereas such models have so far predominantly been evaluated against behavioral data, only recently have the models been used to explain neurobiological signals. Measures obtained from these models emphasize the probabilistic, information-processing view of language understanding and provide a set of tools that can be used for testing neural hypotheses about language comprehension. Here, we provide a cursory review of the theoretical foundations and example neuroimaging studies employing probabilistic language models. We highlight the advantages and potential pitfalls of this approach and indicate avenues for future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fatigue modelling according to the JCSS Probabilistic model code

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

2007-01-01

The Joint Committee on Structural Safety is working on a Model Code for full probabilistic design. The code consists out of three major parts: Basis of design, Load Models and Models for Material and Structural Properties. The code is intended as the operational counter part of codes like ISO,

Balanced bilingualism and early age of second language acquisition as the underlying mechanisms of a bilingual executive control advantage: why variations in bilingual experiences matter.

Science.gov (United States)

Yow, W Quin; Li, Xiaoqian

2015-01-01

Recent studies revealed inconsistent evidences of a bilingual advantage in executive processing. One potential source of explanation is the multifaceted experience of the bilinguals in these studies. This study seeks to test whether bilinguals who engage in language selection more frequently would perform better in executive control tasks than those bilinguals who engage in language selection less frequently. We examined the influence of the degree of bilingualism (i.e., language proficiency, frequency of use of two languages, and age of second language acquisition) on executive functioning in bilingual young adults using a comprehensive battery of executive control tasks. Seventy-two 18- to 25-years-old English-Mandarin bilinguals performed four computerized executive function (EF) tasks (Stroop, Eriksen flanker, number-letter switching, and n-back task) that measure the EF components: inhibition, mental-set shifting, and information updating and monitoring. Results from multiple regression analyses, structural equation modeling, and bootstrapping supported the positive association between age of second language acquisition and the interference cost in the Stroop task. Most importantly, we found a significant effect of balanced bilingualism (balanced usage of and balanced proficiency in two languages) on the Stroop and number-letter task (mixing cost only), indicating that a more balanced use and a more balanced level of proficiency in two languages resulted in better executive control skills in the adult bilinguals. We did not find any significant effect of bilingualism on flanker or n-back task. These findings provided important insights to the underlying mechanisms of the bilingual cognitive advantage hypothesis, demonstrating that regular experience with extensive practice in controlling attention to their two language systems results in better performance in related EFs such as inhibiting prepotent responses and global set-shifting.

Balanced bilingualism and early age of second language acquisition as the underlying mechanisms of a bilingual executive control advantage: why variations in bilingual experiences matter

Science.gov (United States)

Yow, W. Quin; Li, Xiaoqian

2015-01-01

Recent studies revealed inconsistent evidences of a bilingual advantage in executive processing. One potential source of explanation is the multifaceted experience of the bilinguals in these studies. This study seeks to test whether bilinguals who engage in language selection more frequently would perform better in executive control tasks than those bilinguals who engage in language selection less frequently. We examined the influence of the degree of bilingualism (i.e., language proficiency, frequency of use of two languages, and age of second language acquisition) on executive functioning in bilingual young adults using a comprehensive battery of executive control tasks. Seventy-two 18- to 25-years-old English–Mandarin bilinguals performed four computerized executive function (EF) tasks (Stroop, Eriksen flanker, number–letter switching, and n-back task) that measure the EF components: inhibition, mental-set shifting, and information updating and monitoring. Results from multiple regression analyses, structural equation modeling, and bootstrapping supported the positive association between age of second language acquisition and the interference cost in the Stroop task. Most importantly, we found a significant effect of balanced bilingualism (balanced usage of and balanced proficiency in two languages) on the Stroop and number–letter task (mixing cost only), indicating that a more balanced use and a more balanced level of proficiency in two languages resulted in better executive control skills in the adult bilinguals. We did not find any significant effect of bilingualism on flanker or n-back task. These findings provided important insights to the underlying mechanisms of the bilingual cognitive advantage hypothesis, demonstrating that regular experience with extensive practice in controlling attention to their two language systems results in better performance in related EFs such as inhibiting prepotent responses and global set-shifting. PMID:25767451

Balanced bilingualism and early age of second language acquisition as the underlying mechanisms of a bilingual executive control advantage: Why variations in bilingual experiences matter.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Quin eYow

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Recent studies revealed inconsistent evidences of a bilingual advantage in executive processing. One potential source of explanation is the multifaceted experience of the bilinguals in these studies. This study seeks to test whether bilinguals who engage in language selection more frequently would perform better in executive control tasks than those bilinguals who engage in language selection less frequently. We examined the influence of the degree of bilingualism (i.e., language proficiency, frequency of use of two languages, and age of second language acquisition on executive functioning in bilingual young adults using a comprehensive battery of executive control tasks. Seventy-two 18- to 25-year-old English-Mandarin bilinguals performed four computerized executive function tasks (Stroop, Eriksen flanker, number-letter switching and n-back task that measure the executive function components: inhibition, mental-set shifting, and information updating and monitoring. Results from multiple regression analyses, structural equation modeling, and bootstrapping supported the positive association between age of second language acquisition and the interference cost in the Stroop task. Most importantly, we found a significant effect of balanced bilingualism (balanced usage of and balanced proficiency in two languages on the Stroop and number-letter task (mixing cost only, indicating that a more balanced use and a more balanced level of proficiency in two languages resulted in better executive control skills in the adult bilinguals. We did not find any significant effect of bilingualism on flanker or n-back task. These findings provided important insights to the underlying mechanisms of the bilingual cognitive advantage hypothesis, demonstrating that regular experience with extensive practice in controlling attention to their two language systems results in better performance in related executive functions such as inhibiting prepotent responses and global

Does a more sophisticated storm erosion model improve probabilistic erosion estimates?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ranasinghe, R.W.M.R.J.B.; Callaghan, D.; Roelvink, D.

2013-01-01

The dependency between the accuracy/uncertainty of storm erosion exceedance estimates obtained via a probabilistic model and the level of sophistication of the structural function (storm erosion model) embedded in the probabilistic model is assessed via the application of Callaghan et al.'s (2008)

Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting Models by Aggregation of Competitive Predictors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudio Monteiro

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This article presents original probabilistic price forecasting meta-models (PPFMCP models, by aggregation of competitive predictors, for day-ahead hourly probabilistic price forecasting. The best twenty predictors of the EEM2016 EPF competition are used to create ensembles of hourly spot price forecasts. For each hour, the parameter values of the probability density function (PDF of a Beta distribution for the output variable (hourly price can be directly obtained from the expected and variance values associated to the ensemble for such hour, using three aggregation strategies of predictor forecasts corresponding to three PPFMCP models. A Reliability Indicator (RI and a Loss function Indicator (LI are also introduced to give a measure of uncertainty of probabilistic price forecasts. The three PPFMCP models were satisfactorily applied to the real-world case study of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL. Results from PPFMCP models showed that PPFMCP model 2, which uses aggregation by weight values according to daily ranks of predictors, was the best probabilistic meta-model from a point of view of mean absolute errors, as well as of RI and LI. PPFMCP model 1, which uses the averaging of predictor forecasts, was the second best meta-model. PPFMCP models allow evaluations of risk decisions based on the price to be made.

A generative, probabilistic model of local protein structure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boomsma, Wouter; Mardia, Kanti V.; Taylor, Charles C.

2008-01-01

Despite significant progress in recent years, protein structure prediction maintains its status as one of the prime unsolved problems in computational biology. One of the key remaining challenges is an efficient probabilistic exploration of the structural space that correctly reflects the relative...... conformational stabilities. Here, we present a fully probabilistic, continuous model of local protein structure in atomic detail. The generative model makes efficient conformational sampling possible and provides a framework for the rigorous analysis of local sequence-structure correlations in the native state...

Mastering probabilistic graphical models using Python

CERN Document Server

Ankan, Ankur

2015-01-01

If you are a researcher or a machine learning enthusiast, or are working in the data science field and have a basic idea of Bayesian learning or probabilistic graphical models, this book will help you to understand the details of graphical models and use them in your data science problems.

An Individual-based Probabilistic Model for Fish Stock Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Federico Buti

2010-08-01

Full Text Available We define an individual-based probabilistic model of a sole (Solea solea behaviour. The individual model is given in terms of an Extended Probabilistic Discrete Timed Automaton (EPDTA, a new formalism that is introduced in the paper and that is shown to be interpretable as a Markov decision process. A given EPDTA model can be probabilistically model-checked by giving a suitable translation into syntax accepted by existing model-checkers. In order to simulate the dynamics of a given population of soles in different environmental scenarios, an agent-based simulation environment is defined in which each agent implements the behaviour of the given EPDTA model. By varying the probabilities and the characteristic functions embedded in the EPDTA model it is possible to represent different scenarios and to tune the model itself by comparing the results of the simulations with real data about the sole stock in the North Adriatic sea, available from the recent project SoleMon. The simulator is presented and made available for its adaptation to other species.

Biological sequence analysis: probabilistic models of proteins and nucleic acids

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Durbin, Richard

1998-01-01

... analysis methods are now based on principles of probabilistic modelling. Examples of such methods include the use of probabilistically derived score matrices to determine the significance of sequence alignments, the use of hidden Markov models as the basis for profile searches to identify distant members of sequence families, and the inference...

Probabilistic Modeling of Wind Turbine Drivetrain Components

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rafsanjani, Hesam Mirzaei

Wind energy is one of several energy sources in the world and a rapidly growing industry in the energy sector. When placed in offshore or onshore locations, wind turbines are exposed to wave excitations, highly dynamic wind loads and/or the wakes from other wind turbines. Therefore, most components...... in a wind turbine experience highly dynamic and time-varying loads. These components may fail due to wear or fatigue, and this can lead to unplanned shutdown repairs that are very costly. The design by deterministic methods using safety factors is generally unable to account for the many uncertainties. Thus......, a reliability assessment should be based on probabilistic methods where stochastic modeling of failures is performed. This thesis focuses on probabilistic models and the stochastic modeling of the fatigue life of the wind turbine drivetrain. Hence, two approaches are considered for stochastic modeling...

Probabilistically modeling lava flows with MOLASSES

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, J. A.; Connor, L.; Connor, C.; Gallant, E.

2017-12-01

Modeling lava flows through Cellular Automata methods enables a computationally inexpensive means to quickly forecast lava flow paths and ultimate areal extents. We have developed a lava flow simulator, MOLASSES, that forecasts lava flow inundation over an elevation model from a point source eruption. This modular code can be implemented in a deterministic fashion with given user inputs that will produce a single lava flow simulation. MOLASSES can also be implemented in a probabilistic fashion where given user inputs define parameter distributions that are randomly sampled to create many lava flow simulations. This probabilistic approach enables uncertainty in input data to be expressed in the model results and MOLASSES outputs a probability map of inundation instead of a determined lava flow extent. Since the code is comparatively fast, we use it probabilistically to investigate where potential vents are located that may impact specific sites and areas, as well as the unconditional probability of lava flow inundation of sites or areas from any vent. We have validated the MOLASSES code to community-defined benchmark tests and to the real world lava flows at Tolbachik (2012-2013) and Pico do Fogo (2014-2015). To determine the efficacy of the MOLASSES simulator at accurately and precisely mimicking the inundation area of real flows, we report goodness of fit using both model sensitivity and the Positive Predictive Value, the latter of which is a Bayesian posterior statistic. Model sensitivity is often used in evaluating lava flow simulators, as it describes how much of the lava flow was successfully modeled by the simulation. We argue that the positive predictive value is equally important in determining how good a simulator is, as it describes the percentage of the simulation space that was actually inundated by lava.

Foundations of Bilingual Education and Bilingualism. Sixth Edition

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Colin; Wright, Wayne E.

2017-01-01

The sixth edition of this bestselling textbook has been substantially revised and updated to provide a comprehensive introduction to bilingualism and bilingual education in the 21st century. Written in a compact and clear style, the book covers all the crucial issues in bilingualism at individual, group and societal levels. Updates to the new…

Probabilistic Decision Graphs - Combining Verification and AI Techniques for Probabilistic Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2004-01-01

We adopt probabilistic decision graphs developed in the field of automated verification as a tool for probabilistic model representation and inference. We show that probabilistic inference has linear time complexity in the size of the probabilistic decision graph, that the smallest probabilistic ...

How bilingualism protects the brain from aging: Insights from bimodal bilinguals.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Le; Abutalebi, Jubin; Emmorey, Karen; Gong, Gaolang; Yan, Xin; Feng, Xiaoxia; Zou, Lijuan; Ding, Guosheng

2017-08-01

Bilingual experience can delay cognitive decline during aging. A general hypothesis is that the executive control system of bilinguals faces an increased load due to controlling two languages, and this increased load results in a more "tuned brain" that eventually creates a neural reserve. Here we explored whether such a neuroprotective effect is independent of language modality, i.e., not limited to bilinguals who speak two languages but also occurs for bilinguals who use a spoken and a signed language. We addressed this issue by comparing bimodal bilinguals to monolinguals in order to detect age-induced structural brain changes and to determine whether we can detect the same beneficial effects on brain structure, in terms of preservation of gray matter volume (GMV), for bimodal bilinguals as has been reported for unimodal bilinguals. Our GMV analyses revealed a significant interaction effect of age × group in the bilateral anterior temporal lobes, left hippocampus/amygdala, and left insula where bimodal bilinguals showed slight GMV increases while monolinguals showed significant age-induced GMV decreases. We further found through cortical surface-based measurements that this effect was present for surface area and not for cortical thickness. Moreover, to further explore the hypothesis that overall bilingualism provides neuroprotection, we carried out a direct comparison of GMV, extracted from the brain regions reported above, between bimodal bilinguals, unimodal bilinguals, and monolinguals. Bilinguals, regardless of language modality, exhibited higher GMV compared to monolinguals. This finding highlights the general beneficial effects provided by experience handling two language systems, whether signed or spoken. Hum Brain Mapp 38:4109-4124, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A probabilistic model of RNA conformational space

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frellsen, Jes; Moltke, Ida; Thiim, Martin

2009-01-01

efficient sampling of RNA conformations in continuous space, and with associated probabilities. We show that the model captures several key features of RNA structure, such as its rotameric nature and the distribution of the helix lengths. Furthermore, the model readily generates native-like 3-D......, the discrete nature of the fragments necessitates the use of carefully tuned, unphysical energy functions, and their non-probabilistic nature impairs unbiased sampling. We offer a solution to the sampling problem that removes these important limitations: a probabilistic model of RNA structure that allows......The increasing importance of non-coding RNA in biology and medicine has led to a growing interest in the problem of RNA 3-D structure prediction. As is the case for proteins, RNA 3-D structure prediction methods require two key ingredients: an accurate energy function and a conformational sampling...

Modeling and control of an unstable system using probabilistic fuzzy inference system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sozhamadevi N.

2015-09-01

Full Text Available A new type Fuzzy Inference System is proposed, a Probabilistic Fuzzy Inference system which model and minimizes the effects of statistical uncertainties. The blend of two different concepts, degree of truth and probability of truth in a unique framework leads to this new concept. This combination is carried out both in Fuzzy sets and Fuzzy rules, which gives rise to Probabilistic Fuzzy Sets and Probabilistic Fuzzy Rules. Introducing these probabilistic elements, a distinctive probabilistic fuzzy inference system is developed and this involves fuzzification, inference and output processing. This integrated approach accounts for all of the uncertainty like rule uncertainties and measurement uncertainties present in the systems and has led to the design which performs optimally after training. In this paper a Probabilistic Fuzzy Inference System is applied for modeling and control of a highly nonlinear, unstable system and also proved its effectiveness.

Probabilistic Modeling of the Renal Stone Formation Module

Science.gov (United States)

Best, Lauren M.; Myers, Jerry G.; Goodenow, Debra A.; McRae, Michael P.; Jackson, Travis C.

2013-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic tool, used in mission planning decision making and medical systems risk assessments. The IMM project maintains a database of over 80 medical conditions that could occur during a spaceflight, documenting an incidence rate and end case scenarios for each. In some cases, where observational data are insufficient to adequately define the inflight medical risk, the IMM utilizes external probabilistic modules to model and estimate the event likelihoods. One such medical event of interest is an unpassed renal stone. Due to a high salt diet and high concentrations of calcium in the blood (due to bone depletion caused by unloading in the microgravity environment) astronauts are at a considerable elevated risk for developing renal calculi (nephrolithiasis) while in space. Lack of observed incidences of nephrolithiasis has led HRP to initiate the development of the Renal Stone Formation Module (RSFM) to create a probabilistic simulator capable of estimating the likelihood of symptomatic renal stone presentation in astronauts on exploration missions. The model consists of two major parts. The first is the probabilistic component, which utilizes probability distributions to assess the range of urine electrolyte parameters and a multivariate regression to transform estimated crystal density and size distributions to the likelihood of the presentation of nephrolithiasis symptoms. The second is a deterministic physical and chemical model of renal stone growth in the kidney developed by Kassemi et al. The probabilistic component of the renal stone model couples the input probability distributions describing the urine chemistry, astronaut physiology, and system parameters with the physical and chemical outputs and inputs to the deterministic stone growth model. These two parts of the model are necessary to capture the uncertainty in the likelihood estimate. The model will be driven by Monte Carlo simulations, continuously

Modelling probabilistic fatigue crack propagation rates for a mild structural steel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.A.F.O. Correia

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A class of fatigue crack growth models based on elastic–plastic stress–strain histories at the crack tip region and local strain-life damage models have been proposed in literature. The fatigue crack growth is regarded as a process of continuous crack initializations over successive elementary material blocks, which may be governed by smooth strain-life damage data. Some approaches account for the residual stresses developing at the crack tip in the actual crack driving force assessment, allowing mean stresses and loading sequential effects to be modelled. An extension of the fatigue crack propagation model originally proposed by Noroozi et al. (2005 to derive probabilistic fatigue crack propagation data is proposed, in particular concerning the derivation of probabilistic da/dN-ΔK-R fields. The elastic-plastic stresses at the vicinity of the crack tip, computed using simplified formulae, are compared with the stresses computed using an elasticplastic finite element analyses for specimens considered in the experimental program proposed to derive the fatigue crack propagation data. Using probabilistic strain-life data available for the S355 structural mild steel, probabilistic crack propagation fields are generated, for several stress ratios, and compared with experimental fatigue crack propagation data. A satisfactory agreement between the predicted probabilistic fields and experimental data is observed.

Corima: A Bilingual Experiment in the Tarahumara Region in the State of Chihuahua, Mexico. How Does It Measure against Transitional Bilingual Programs in the United States?

Science.gov (United States)

Nunez, Mario A.

This report explores two bilingual educational approaches currently in use in Mexico and the United States. The study pursues a limited comparison between two modalities of bilingual instruction, as observed and reported in the consulted literature. The U.S. model featured is known as the two-way bilingual model, an additive approach to…

Compositions in English: Comparing the Works of Monolinguals, Passive Bilinguals, and Active Bilinguals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julia Eka Rini

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This study tries to see whether the subjects’ “monolingualism” and “bilingualism” (monolinguals learning an L2 and bilinguals learning an L3 influence their study on English, especially writing. The term “bilinguals” also means “multilinguals” in this study. Bilinguals in this paper are classified into two; first, passive bilinguals who are only exposed to another local language, besides speaking Bahasa Indonesia at home, and second, active bilinguals who are exposed to and also speak other language(s and Bahasa Indonesia at home. The findings show that the monolingual and the active bilingual are better than the passive one; the active bilingual is better than the monolingual. However, if the passive and the active bilingual are combined, the monolingual is better than the bilinguals.

Lexical processing and organization in bilingual first language acquisition: Guiding future research.

Science.gov (United States)

DeAnda, Stephanie; Poulin-Dubois, Diane; Zesiger, Pascal; Friend, Margaret

2016-06-01

A rich body of work in adult bilinguals documents an interconnected lexical network across languages, such that early word retrieval is language independent. This literature has yielded a number of influential models of bilingual semantic memory. However, extant models provide limited predictions about the emergence of lexical organization in bilingual first language acquisition (BFLA). Empirical evidence from monolingual infants suggests that lexical networks emerge early in development as children integrate phonological and semantic information. These findings tell us little about the interaction between 2 languages in early bilingual memory. To date, an understanding of when and how languages interact in early bilingual development is lacking. In this literature review, we present research documenting lexical-semantic development across monolingual and bilingual infants. This is followed by a discussion of current models of bilingual language representation and organization and their ability to account for the available empirical evidence. Together, these theoretical and empirical accounts inform and highlight unexplored areas of research and guide future work on early bilingual memory. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Systems analysis approach to probabilistic modeling of fault trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartholomew, R.J.; Qualls, C.R.

1985-01-01

A method of probabilistic modeling of fault tree logic combined with stochastic process theory (Markov modeling) has been developed. Systems are then quantitatively analyzed probabilistically in terms of their failure mechanisms including common cause/common mode effects and time dependent failure and/or repair rate effects that include synergistic and propagational mechanisms. The modeling procedure results in a state vector set of first order, linear, inhomogeneous, differential equations describing the time dependent probabilities of failure described by the fault tree. The solutions of this Failure Mode State Variable (FMSV) model are cumulative probability distribution functions of the system. A method of appropriate synthesis of subsystems to form larger systems is developed and applied to practical nuclear power safety systems

Formulation of probabilistic models of protein structure in atomic detail using the reference ratio method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Valentin, Jan B.; Andreetta, Christian; Boomsma, Wouter

2014-01-01

We propose a method to formulate probabilistic models of protein structure in atomic detail, for a given amino acid sequence, based on Bayesian principles, while retaining a close link to physics. We start from two previously developed probabilistic models of protein structure on a local length s....... The results indicate that the proposed method and the probabilistic models show considerable promise for probabilistic protein structure prediction and related applications. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc....

Performance analysis of chi models using discrete-time probabilistic reward graphs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Trcka, N.; Georgievska, S.; Markovski, J.; Andova, S.; Vink, de E.P.

2008-01-01

We propose the model of discrete-time probabilistic reward graphs (DTPRGs) for performance analysis of systems exhibiting discrete deterministic time delays and probabilistic behavior, via their interpretation as discrete-time Markov reward chains, full-fledged platform for qualitative and

E-Area LLWF Vadose Zone Model: Probabilistic Model for Estimating Subsided-Area Infiltration Rates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dyer, J. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Flach, G. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

2017-12-12

A probabilistic model employing a Monte Carlo sampling technique was developed in Python to generate statistical distributions of the upslope-intact-area to subsided-area ratio (Area_UAi/Area_SAi) for closure cap subsidence scenarios that differ in assumed percent subsidence and the total number of intact plus subsided compartments. The plan is to use this model as a component in the probabilistic system model for the E-Area Performance Assessment (PA), contributing uncertainty in infiltration estimates.

Generalized outcome-based strategy classification: comparing deterministic and probabilistic choice models.

Science.gov (United States)

Hilbig, Benjamin E; Moshagen, Morten

2014-12-01

Model comparisons are a vital tool for disentangling which of several strategies a decision maker may have used--that is, which cognitive processes may have governed observable choice behavior. However, previous methodological approaches have been limited to models (i.e., decision strategies) with deterministic choice rules. As such, psychologically plausible choice models--such as evidence-accumulation and connectionist models--that entail probabilistic choice predictions could not be considered appropriately. To overcome this limitation, we propose a generalization of Bröder and Schiffer's (Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 19, 361-380, 2003) choice-based classification method, relying on (1) parametric order constraints in the multinomial processing tree framework to implement probabilistic models and (2) minimum description length for model comparison. The advantages of the generalized approach are demonstrated through recovery simulations and an experiment. In explaining previous methods and our generalization, we maintain a nontechnical focus--so as to provide a practical guide for comparing both deterministic and probabilistic choice models.

Probabilistic Radiological Performance Assessment Modeling and Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Tauxe, J.

2004-12-01

A generic probabilistic radiological Performance Assessment (PA) model is presented. The model, built using the GoldSim systems simulation software platform, concerns contaminant transport and dose estimation in support of decision making with uncertainty. Both the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) require assessments of potential future risk to human receptors of disposal of LLW. Commercially operated LLW disposal facilities are licensed by the NRC (or agreement states), and the DOE operates such facilities for disposal of DOE-generated LLW. The type of PA model presented is probabilistic in nature, and hence reflects the current state of knowledge about the site by using probability distributions to capture what is expected (central tendency or average) and the uncertainty (e.g., standard deviation) associated with input parameters, and propagating through the model to arrive at output distributions that reflect expected performance and the overall uncertainty in the system. Estimates of contaminant release rates, concentrations in environmental media, and resulting doses to human receptors well into the future are made by running the model in Monte Carlo fashion, with each realization representing a possible combination of input parameter values. Statistical summaries of the results can be compared to regulatory performance objectives, and decision makers are better informed of the inherently uncertain aspects of the model which supports their decision-making. While this information may make some regulators uncomfortable, they must realize that uncertainties which were hidden in a deterministic analysis are revealed in a probabilistic analysis, and the chance of making a correct decision is now known rather than hoped for. The model includes many typical features and processes that would be part of a PA, but is entirely fictitious. This does not represent any particular site and is meant to be a generic example. A

Using Structured Knowledge Representation for Context-Sensitive Probabilistic Modeling

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Sakhanenko, Nikita A; Luger, George F

2008-01-01

We propose a context-sensitive probabilistic modeling system (COSMOS) that reasons about a complex, dynamic environment through a series of applications of smaller, knowledge-focused models representing contextually relevant information...

Bilingualism and cognition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Groot, A.M.B.; Chapelle, C.A.

2013-01-01

Scientific interest in the effects of (individual) bilingualism on cognition dates back to at least the first quarter of the 20th century, as illustrated by two articles that were published in 1923 on the relation between bilingualism and mental development (Smith, 1923) and between bilingualism and

Model checking optimal finite-horizon control for probabilistic gene regulatory networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Ou; Guo, Zonghao; Niu, Yun; Liao, Wenyuan

2017-12-14

Probabilistic Boolean networks (PBNs) have been proposed for analyzing external control in gene regulatory networks with incorporation of uncertainty. A context-sensitive PBN with perturbation (CS-PBNp), extending a PBN with context-sensitivity to reflect the inherent biological stability and random perturbations to express the impact of external stimuli, is considered to be more suitable for modeling small biological systems intervened by conditions from the outside. In this paper, we apply probabilistic model checking, a formal verification technique, to optimal control for a CS-PBNp that minimizes the expected cost over a finite control horizon. We first describe a procedure of modeling a CS-PBNp using the language provided by a widely used probabilistic model checker PRISM. We then analyze the reward-based temporal properties and the computation in probabilistic model checking; based on the analysis, we provide a method to formulate the optimal control problem as minimum reachability reward properties. Furthermore, we incorporate control and state cost information into the PRISM code of a CS-PBNp such that automated model checking a minimum reachability reward property on the code gives the solution to the optimal control problem. We conduct experiments on two examples, an apoptosis network and a WNT5A network. Preliminary experiment results show the feasibility and effectiveness of our approach. The approach based on probabilistic model checking for optimal control avoids explicit computation of large-size state transition relations associated with PBNs. It enables a natural depiction of the dynamics of gene regulatory networks, and provides a canonical form to formulate optimal control problems using temporal properties that can be automated solved by leveraging the analysis power of underlying model checking engines. This work will be helpful for further utilization of the advances in formal verification techniques in system biology.

Toward a Probabilistic Phenological Model for Wheat Growing Degree Days (GDD)

Science.gov (United States)

Rahmani, E.; Hense, A.

2017-12-01

Are there deterministic relations between phenological and climate parameters? The answer is surely `No'. This answer motivated us to solve the problem through probabilistic theories. Thus, we developed a probabilistic phenological model which has the advantage of giving additional information in terms of uncertainty. To that aim, we turned to a statistical analysis named survival analysis. Survival analysis deals with death in biological organisms and failure in mechanical systems. In survival analysis literature, death or failure is considered as an event. By event, in this research we mean ripening date of wheat. We will assume only one event in this special case. By time, we mean the growing duration from sowing to ripening as lifetime for wheat which is a function of GDD. To be more precise we will try to perform the probabilistic forecast for wheat ripening. The probability value will change between 0 and 1. Here, the survivor function gives the probability that the not ripened wheat survives longer than a specific time or will survive to the end of its lifetime as a ripened crop. The survival function at each station is determined by fitting a normal distribution to the GDD as the function of growth duration. Verification of the models obtained is done using CRPS skill score (CRPSS). The positive values of CRPSS indicate the large superiority of the probabilistic phonologic survival model to the deterministic models. These results demonstrate that considering uncertainties in modeling are beneficial, meaningful and necessary. We believe that probabilistic phenological models have the potential to help reduce the vulnerability of agricultural production systems to climate change thereby increasing food security.

Main Trands and Prospects of Bilingual Education Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Solntseva-Nakova

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with the system of bilingual education, its development history, causes and effects of transformation of multi-ethnical education into polycultural one. The correlation between the bilingual and polycultural teaching is emphasized, its intensification resulting from the historical and socio-cultural background, as well as the global trends in philosophy, pedagogy and psychology. The author specifies the term of bilingual teaching; examines its various models emphasizing that their preferences depend on the particular socio-lingual backgrounds; demonstrates the relevance of bilingual teaching resulted from the general trend of economic, cultural and political integration. The advantages of bilingual education are enumerated: the access to information in various spheres and in a broader scale, continuing educational growth and competitiveness in the European and world labor markets. 

Main Trands and Prospects of Bilingual Education Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Solntseva-Nakova

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with the system of bilingual education, its development history, causes and effects of transformation of multi-ethnical education into polycultural one. The correlation between the bilingual and polycultural teaching is emphasized, its intensification resulting from the historical and socio-cultural background, as well as the global trends in philosophy, pedagogy and psychology. The author specifies the term of bilingual teaching; examines its various models emphasizing that their preferences depend on the particular socio-lingual backgrounds; demonstrates the relevance of bilingual teaching resulted from the general trend of economic, cultural and political integration. The advantages of bilingual education are enumerated: the access to information in various spheres and in a broader scale, continuing educational growth and competitiveness in the European and world labor markets. 

The Development of Bimodal Bilingualism: Implications for Linguistic Theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Lillo-Martin, Diane; de Quadros, Ronice Müller; Pichler, Deborah Chen

2016-01-01

A wide range of linguistic phenomena contribute to our understanding of the architecture of the human linguistic system. In this paper we present a proposal dubbed Language Synthesis to capture bilingual phenomena including code-switching and 'transfer' as automatic consequences of the addition of a second language, using basic concepts of Minimalism and Distributed Morphology. Bimodal bilinguals, who use a sign language and a spoken language, provide a new type of evidence regarding possible bilingual phenomena, namely code-blending, the simultaneous production of (aspects of) a message in both speech and sign. We argue that code-blending also follows naturally once a second articulatory interface is added to the model. Several different types of code-blending are discussed in connection to the predictions of the Synthesis model. Our primary data come from children developing as bimodal bilinguals, but our proposal is intended to capture a wide range of bilingual effects across any language pair.

Generative probabilistic models extend the scope of inferential structure determination

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsson, Simon; Boomsma, Wouter; Frellsen, Jes

2011-01-01

demonstrate that the use of generative probabilistic models instead of physical forcefields in the Bayesian formalism is not only conceptually attractive, but also improves precision and efficiency. Our results open new vistas for the use of sophisticated probabilistic models of biomolecular structure......Conventional methods for protein structure determination from NMR data rely on the ad hoc combination of physical forcefields and experimental data, along with heuristic determination of free parameters such as weight of experimental data relative to a physical forcefield. Recently, a theoretically...

Application of a probabilistic model of rainfall-induced shallow landslides to complex hollows

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Talebi, A.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Troch, P.A.

2008-01-01

Recently, D'Odorico and Fagherazzi (2003) proposed "A probabilistic model of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides in hollows" (Water Resour. Res., 39, 2003). Their model describes the long-term evolution of colluvial deposits through a probabilistic soil mass balance at a point. Further building

Probabilistic predictive modelling of carbon nanocomposites for medical implants design.

Science.gov (United States)

Chua, Matthew; Chui, Chee-Kong

2015-04-01

Modelling of the mechanical properties of carbon nanocomposites based on input variables like percentage weight of Carbon Nanotubes (CNT) inclusions is important for the design of medical implants and other structural scaffolds. Current constitutive models for the mechanical properties of nanocomposites may not predict well due to differences in conditions, fabrication techniques and inconsistencies in reagents properties used across industries and laboratories. Furthermore, the mechanical properties of the designed products are not deterministic, but exist as a probabilistic range. A predictive model based on a modified probabilistic surface response algorithm is proposed in this paper to address this issue. Tensile testing of three groups of different CNT weight fractions of carbon nanocomposite samples displays scattered stress-strain curves, with the instantaneous stresses assumed to vary according to a normal distribution at a specific strain. From the probabilistic density function of the experimental data, a two factors Central Composite Design (CCD) experimental matrix based on strain and CNT weight fraction input with their corresponding stress distribution was established. Monte Carlo simulation was carried out on this design matrix to generate a predictive probabilistic polynomial equation. The equation and method was subsequently validated with more tensile experiments and Finite Element (FE) studies. The method was subsequently demonstrated in the design of an artificial tracheal implant. Our algorithm provides an effective way to accurately model the mechanical properties in implants of various compositions based on experimental data of samples. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic flood damage modelling at the meso-scale

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2014-05-01

Decisions on flood risk management and adaptation are usually based on risk analyses. Such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments. Most damage models have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we show how the model BT-FLEMO (Bagging decision Tree based Flood Loss Estimation MOdel) can be applied on the meso-scale, namely on the basis of ATKIS land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated damage to residential buildings per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight other damage models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official damage data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of damage estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation model BT-FLEMO is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. Reference: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64.

Probabilistic Modelling of Robustness and Resilience of Power Grid Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qin, Jianjun; Sansavini, Giovanni; Nielsen, Michael Havbro Faber

2017-01-01

The present paper proposes a framework for the modeling and analysis of resilience of networked power grid systems. A probabilistic systems model is proposed based on the JCSS Probabilistic Model Code (JCSS, 2001) and deterministic engineering systems modeling techniques such as the DC flow model...... cascading failure event scenarios (Nan and Sansavini, 2017). The concept of direct and indirect consequences proposed by the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS, 2008) is utilized to model the associated consequences. To facilitate a holistic modeling of robustness and resilience, and to identify how...... these characteristics may be optimized these characteristics, the power grid system is finally interlinked with its fundamental interdependent systems, i.e. a societal model, a regulatory system and control feedback loops. The proposed framework is exemplified with reference to optimal decision support for resilience...

Financial Markets Analysis by Probabilistic Fuzzy Modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.H. van den Berg (Jan); W.-M. van den Bergh (Willem-Max); U. Kaymak (Uzay)

2003-01-01

textabstractFor successful trading in financial markets, it is important to develop financial models where one can identify different states of the market for modifying one???s actions. In this paper, we propose to use probabilistic fuzzy systems for this purpose. We concentrate on Takagi???Sugeno

Financial markets analysis by probabilistic fuzzy modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berg, van den J.; Kaymak, U.; Bergh, van den W.M.

2003-01-01

For successful trading in financial markets, it is important to develop financial models where one can identify different states of the market for modifying one???s actions. In this paper, we propose to use probabilistic fuzzy systems for this purpose. We concentrate on Takagi???Sugeno (TS)

Probabilistic Load Models for Simulating the Impact of Load Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Peiyuan; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Chen, Zhe

2009-01-01

. It is concluded that the AR(12) model is favored with limited measurement data and that the joint-normal model may provide better results with a large data set. Both models can be applied in general to model load time series and used in time-sequential simulation of distribution system planning.......This paper analyzes a distribution system load time series through autocorrelation coefficient, power spectral density, probabilistic distribution and quantile value. Two probabilistic load models, i.e. the joint-normal model and the autoregressive model of order 12 (AR(12)), are proposed...... to simulate the impact of load management. The joint-normal model is superior in modeling the tail region of the hourly load distribution and implementing the change of hourly standard deviation. Whereas the AR(12) model requires much less parameter and is superior in modeling the autocorrelation...

Probabilistic Modeling and Risk Assessment of Cable Icing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Roldsgaard, Joan Hee

This dissertation addresses the issues related to icing of structures with special emphasis on bridge cables. Cable supported bridges in cold climate suffers for ice accreting on the cables, this poses three different undesirable situations. Firstly the changed shape of the cable due to ice...... preliminary framework is modified for assessing the probability of occurrence of in-cloud and precipitation icing and its duration. Different probabilistic models are utilized for the representation of the meteorological variables and their appropriateness is evaluated both through goodness-of-fit tests...... are influencing the two icing mechanisms and their duration. The model is found to be more sensitive to changes in the discretization levels of the input variables. Thirdly the developed operational probabilistic framework for the assessment of the expected number of occurrences of ice/snow accretion on bridge...

Formulation of probabilistic models of protein structure in atomic detail using the reference ratio method.

Science.gov (United States)

Valentin, Jan B; Andreetta, Christian; Boomsma, Wouter; Bottaro, Sandro; Ferkinghoff-Borg, Jesper; Frellsen, Jes; Mardia, Kanti V; Tian, Pengfei; Hamelryck, Thomas

2014-02-01

We propose a method to formulate probabilistic models of protein structure in atomic detail, for a given amino acid sequence, based on Bayesian principles, while retaining a close link to physics. We start from two previously developed probabilistic models of protein structure on a local length scale, which concern the dihedral angles in main chain and side chains, respectively. Conceptually, this constitutes a probabilistic and continuous alternative to the use of discrete fragment and rotamer libraries. The local model is combined with a nonlocal model that involves a small number of energy terms according to a physical force field, and some information on the overall secondary structure content. In this initial study we focus on the formulation of the joint model and the evaluation of the use of an energy vector as a descriptor of a protein's nonlocal structure; hence, we derive the parameters of the nonlocal model from the native structure without loss of generality. The local and nonlocal models are combined using the reference ratio method, which is a well-justified probabilistic construction. For evaluation, we use the resulting joint models to predict the structure of four proteins. The results indicate that the proposed method and the probabilistic models show considerable promise for probabilistic protein structure prediction and related applications. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Review of probabilistic models of the strength of composite materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sutherland, L.S.; Guedes Soares, C.

1997-01-01

The available literature concerning probabilistic models describing the strength of composite materials has been reviewed to highlight the important aspects of this behaviour which will be of interest to the modelling and analysis of a complex system. The success with which these theories have been used to predict experimental results has been discussed. Since the brittle reinforcement phase largely controls the strength of composites, the probabilistic theories used to describe the strength of brittle materials, fibres and bundles of fibres have been detailed. The use of these theories to predict the strength of composite materials has been considered, along with further developments incorporating the damage accumulation observed in the failure of such materials. Probabilistic theories of the strength of short-fibre composites have been outlined. Emphasis has been placed throughout on straightforward engineering explanations of these theories and how they may be used, rather than providing comprehensive statistical descriptions

Bilingualism and Musicianship Enhance Cognitive Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Scott R. Schroeder

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Learning how to speak a second language (i.e., becoming a bilingual and learning how to play a musical instrument (i.e., becoming a musician are both thought to increase executive control through experience-dependent plasticity. However, evidence supporting this effect is mixed for bilingualism and limited for musicianship. In addition, the combined effects of bilingualism and musicianship on executive control are unknown. To determine whether bilingualism, musicianship, and combined bilingualism and musicianship improve executive control, we tested 219 young adults belonging to one of four groups (bilinguals, musicians, bilingual musicians, and controls on a nonlinguistic, nonmusical, visual-spatial Simon task that measured the ability to ignore an irrelevant and misinformative cue. Results revealed that bilinguals, musicians, and bilingual musicians showed an enhanced ability to ignore a distracting cue relative to controls, with similar levels of superior performance among bilinguals, musicians, and bilingual musicians. These results indicate that bilingualism and musicianship improve executive control and have implications for educational and rehabilitation programs that use music and foreign language instruction to boost cognitive performance.

Bilingualism and Musicianship Enhance Cognitive Control.

Science.gov (United States)

Schroeder, Scott R; Marian, Viorica; Shook, Anthony; Bartolotti, James

2016-01-01

Learning how to speak a second language (i.e., becoming a bilingual) and learning how to play a musical instrument (i.e., becoming a musician) are both thought to increase executive control through experience-dependent plasticity. However, evidence supporting this effect is mixed for bilingualism and limited for musicianship. In addition, the combined effects of bilingualism and musicianship on executive control are unknown. To determine whether bilingualism, musicianship, and combined bilingualism and musicianship improve executive control, we tested 219 young adults belonging to one of four groups (bilinguals, musicians, bilingual musicians, and controls) on a nonlinguistic, nonmusical, visual-spatial Simon task that measured the ability to ignore an irrelevant and misinformative cue. Results revealed that bilinguals, musicians, and bilingual musicians showed an enhanced ability to ignore a distracting cue relative to controls, with similar levels of superior performance among bilinguals, musicians, and bilingual musicians. These results indicate that bilingualism and musicianship improve executive control and have implications for educational and rehabilitation programs that use music and foreign language instruction to boost cognitive performance.

Probabilistic Logical Characterization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hermanns, Holger; Parma, Augusto; Segala, Roberto

2011-01-01

Probabilistic automata exhibit both probabilistic and non-deterministic choice. They are therefore a powerful semantic foundation for modeling concurrent systems with random phenomena arising in many applications ranging from artificial intelligence, security, systems biology to performance...... modeling. Several variations of bisimulation and simulation relations have proved to be useful as means to abstract and compare different automata. This paper develops a taxonomy of logical characterizations of these relations on image-finite and image-infinite probabilistic automata....

Evaluation of seismic reliability of steel moment resisting frames rehabilitated by concentric braces with probabilistic models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fateme Rezaei

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Probability of structure failure which has been designed by "deterministic methods" can be more than the one which has been designed in similar situation using probabilistic methods and models considering "uncertainties". The main purpose of this research was to evaluate the seismic reliability of steel moment resisting frames rehabilitated with concentric braces by probabilistic models. To do so, three-story and nine-story steel moment resisting frames were designed based on resistant criteria of Iranian code and then they were rehabilitated based on controlling drift limitations by concentric braces. Probability of frames failure was evaluated by probabilistic models of magnitude, location of earthquake, ground shaking intensity in the area of the structure, probabilistic model of building response (based on maximum lateral roof displacement and probabilistic methods. These frames were analyzed under subcrustal source by sampling probabilistic method "Risk Tools" (RT. Comparing the exceedance probability of building response curves (or selected points on it of the three-story and nine-story model frames (before and after rehabilitation, seismic response of rehabilitated frames, was reduced and their reliability was improved. Also the main effective variables in reducing the probability of frames failure were determined using sensitivity analysis by FORM probabilistic method. The most effective variables reducing the probability of frames failure are  in the magnitude model, ground shaking intensity model error and magnitude model error

The bilingual brain: Flexibility and control in the human cortex

Science.gov (United States)

Buchweitz, Augusto; Prat, Chantel

2013-12-01

The goal of the present review is to discuss recent cognitive neuroscientific findings concerning bilingualism. Three interrelated questions about the bilingual brain are addressed: How are multiple languages represented in the brain? how are languages controlled in the brain? and what are the real-world implications of experience with multiple languages? The review is based on neuroimaging research findings about the nature of bilingual processing, namely, how the brain adapts to accommodate multiple languages in the bilingual brain and to control which language should be used, and when. We also address how this adaptation results in differences observed in the general cognition of bilingual individuals. General implications for models of human learning, plasticity, and cognitive control are discussed.

Approximating methods for intractable probabilistic models: Applications in neuroscience

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Højen-Sørensen, Pedro

2002-01-01

This thesis investigates various methods for carrying out approximate inference in intractable probabilistic models. By capturing the relationships between random variables, the framework of graphical models hints at which sets of random variables pose a problem to the inferential step. The appro...

A probabilistic maintenance model for diesel engines

Science.gov (United States)

Pathirana, Shan; Abeygunawardane, Saranga Kumudu

2018-02-01

In this paper, a probabilistic maintenance model is developed for inspection based preventive maintenance of diesel engines based on the practical model concepts discussed in the literature. Developed model is solved using real data obtained from inspection and maintenance histories of diesel engines and experts' views. Reliability indices and costs were calculated for the present maintenance policy of diesel engines. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to observe the effect of inspection based preventive maintenance on the life cycle cost of diesel engines.

Probabilistic models and machine learning in structural bioinformatics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hamelryck, Thomas

2009-01-01

. Recently, probabilistic models and machine learning methods based on Bayesian principles are providing efficient and rigorous solutions to challenging problems that were long regarded as intractable. In this review, I will highlight some important recent developments in the prediction, analysis...

Probabilistic Role Models and the Guarded Fragment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2004-01-01

We propose a uniform semantic framework for interpreting probabilistic concept subsumption and probabilistic role quantification through statistical sampling distributions. This general semantic principle serves as the foundation for the development of a probabilistic version of the guarded fragm...... fragment of first-order logic. A characterization of equivalence in that logic in terms of bisimulations is given....

Probabilistic role models and the guarded fragment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2006-01-01

We propose a uniform semantic framework for interpreting probabilistic concept subsumption and probabilistic role quantification through statistical sampling distributions. This general semantic principle serves as the foundation for the development of a probabilistic version of the guarded fragm...... fragment of first-order logic. A characterization of equivalence in that logic in terms of bisimulations is given....

Probabilistic Compositional Models: solution of an equivalence problem

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kratochvíl, Václav

2013-01-01

Roč. 54, č. 5 (2013), s. 590-601 ISSN 0888-613X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-20012S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Probabilistic model * Compositional model * Independence * Equivalence Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.977, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/MTR/kratochvil-0391079.pdf

Metabolic level recognition of progesterone in dairy Holstein cows using probabilistic models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ludmila N. Turino

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Administration of exogenous progesterone is widely used in hormonal protocols for estrous (resynchronization of dairy cattle without regarding pharmacological issues for dose calculation. This happens because it is difficult to estimate the metabolic level of progesterone for each individual cow before administration. In the present contribution, progesterone pharmacokinetics has been determined in lactating Holstein cows with different milk production yields. A Bayesian approach has been implemented to build two probabilistic progesterone pharmacokinetic models for high and low yield dairy cows. Such models are based on a one-compartment Hill structure. Posterior probabilistic models have been structurally set up and parametric probability density functions have been empirically estimated. Moreover, a global sensitivity analysis has been done to know sensitivity profile of each model. Finally, posterior probabilistic models have adequately recognized cow’s progesterone metabolic level in a validation set when Kullback-Leibler based indices were used. These results suggest that milk yield may be a good index for estimating pharmacokinetic level of progesterone.

Beneficial effect of bilingualism on Alzheimer's disease CSF biomarkers and cognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Estanga, Ainara; Ecay-Torres, Mirian; Ibañez, Almudena; Izagirre, Andrea; Villanua, Jorge; Garcia-Sebastian, Maite; Iglesias Gaspar, M Teresa; Otaegui-Arrazola, Ane; Iriondo, Ane; Clerigue, Monserrat; Martinez-Lage, Pablo

2017-02-01

Bilingualism as a component of cognitive reserve has been claimed to delay the onset of Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, its effect on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) AD-biomarkers has not been investigated. We assessed cognitive performance and CSF AD-biomarkers, and potential moderation effect of bilingualism on the association between age, CSF AD-biomarkers, and cognition. Cognitively healthy middle-aged participants classified as monolinguals (n = 100, n CSF  = 59), early (n = 81, n CSF  = 55) and late bilinguals (n = 97, n CSF  = 52) were evaluated. Models adjusted for confounders showed that bilinguals performed better than monolinguals on digits backwards (early-bilinguals p = 0.003), Judgment of Line Orientation (JLO) (early-bilinguals p = 0.018; late-bilinguals p = 0.004), and Trail Making Test-B (late-bilinguals p = 0.047). Early bilingualism was associated with lower CSF total-tau (p = 0.019) and lower prevalence of preclinical AD (NIA-AA classification) (p = 0.02). Bilingualism showed a moderation effect on the relationship between age and CSF AD-biomarkers and the relationship between age and executive function. We conclude that bilingualism contributes to cognitive reserve enhancing executive and visual-spatial functions. For the first time, this study reveals that early bilingualism is associated with more favorable CSF AD-biomarker profile. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A range of complex probabilistic models for RNA secondary structure prediction that includes the nearest-neighbor model and more.

Science.gov (United States)

Rivas, Elena; Lang, Raymond; Eddy, Sean R

2012-02-01

The standard approach for single-sequence RNA secondary structure prediction uses a nearest-neighbor thermodynamic model with several thousand experimentally determined energy parameters. An attractive alternative is to use statistical approaches with parameters estimated from growing databases of structural RNAs. Good results have been reported for discriminative statistical methods using complex nearest-neighbor models, including CONTRAfold, Simfold, and ContextFold. Little work has been reported on generative probabilistic models (stochastic context-free grammars [SCFGs]) of comparable complexity, although probabilistic models are generally easier to train and to use. To explore a range of probabilistic models of increasing complexity, and to directly compare probabilistic, thermodynamic, and discriminative approaches, we created TORNADO, a computational tool that can parse a wide spectrum of RNA grammar architectures (including the standard nearest-neighbor model and more) using a generalized super-grammar that can be parameterized with probabilities, energies, or arbitrary scores. By using TORNADO, we find that probabilistic nearest-neighbor models perform comparably to (but not significantly better than) discriminative methods. We find that complex statistical models are prone to overfitting RNA structure and that evaluations should use structurally nonhomologous training and test data sets. Overfitting has affected at least one published method (ContextFold). The most important barrier to improving statistical approaches for RNA secondary structure prediction is the lack of diversity of well-curated single-sequence RNA secondary structures in current RNA databases.

Cross-Linguistic Influence in French-English Bilingual Children's Possessive Constructions

Science.gov (United States)

Nicoladis, Elena

2012-01-01

The purpose of this article was to test the predictions of a speech production model of cross-linguistic influence in French-English bilingual children. A speech production model predicts bidirectional influence (i.e., bilinguals' greater use of periphrastic constructions like the hat of the dog relative to monolinguals in English and reversed…

Bilingualism: Research and Policy

Science.gov (United States)

McCardle, Peggy

2015-01-01

Bilingualism, commonplace throughout the world, is not well accepted or supported in many parts of the United States. Education policies and practices regarding bilingualism are often based on myths and attitudes rather than facts, despite scientific evidence on both the disadvantages and advantages of bilingualism. Based on a brief overview of…

Bilingual teaching in nursing education in China: evolution, status, and future directions.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Wei; Xu, Yu; Zhu, Jianhua

2011-09-01

Based on Chinese published literature and personal observations, this article reviews the history of bilingual teaching in nursing education in China, describes its current status and challenges, and predicts its future directions. Bilingual teaching in nursing education enjoys increasing popularity in China. The major factors that affect bilingual teaching are bilingual educators, students' English-language levels, bilingual teaching materials, and teaching models. Based on surveys of nursing schools, the English-language proficiency of the nursing educators varies greatly. The main issues with the teaching methods lie in over-translation, cramming, and limited interaction between the students and the teachers. Despite relatively inadequate English-language proficiency among Chinese nursing students, their interest can be strengthened greatly if international exchanges are available and promoted. Bilingual textbooks are more suitable in China's national context because of pricing and relevance. Although immersive bilingual teaching is the ideal, it is more feasible to begin with infiltrative bilingual teaching and move progressively towards increased English-language penetration. Future directions for improving bilingual teaching include training teaching faculty members, strengthening international exchanges, providing better bilingual study atmospheres, and gradually implementing bilingual textbooks. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Bilinguals Have Different Hemispheric Lateralization in Visual Word Processing from Monolinguals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sze-Man Lam

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Previous bilingual studies showed reduced hemispheric asymmetry in visual tasks such as face perception in bilinguals compared with monolinguals, suggesting experience in reading one or two languages could be a modulating factor. Here we examined whether difference in hemispheric asymmetry in visual tasks can also be observed in bilinguals who have different language backgrounds. We compared the behavior of three language groups in a tachistoscopic English word sequential matching task: English monolinguals (or alphabetic monolinguals, A-Ms, bilinguals with an alphabetic-L1 and English-L2 (alphabetic-alphabetic bilinguals, AA-Bs, and bilinguals with Chinese-L1 and English-L2 (logographic-alphabetic bilinguals, LA-Bs. The results showed that AA-Bs had a stronger right visual field/ left hemispheric (LH advantage than A-Ms and LA-Bs, suggesting that different language learning experiences can influence how visual words are processed in the brain. In addition, we showed that this effect could be accounted for by a computational model that implements a theory of hemispheric asymmetry in perception (i.e., the Double Filtering by Frequency theory; Ivry & Robertson, 1998; the modeling data suggested that this difference may be due to both the difference in participants' vocabulary size and the difference in word-to-sound mapping between alphabetic and logographic languages.

Integrating probabilistic models of perception and interactive neural networks: a historical and tutorial review.

Science.gov (United States)

McClelland, James L

2013-01-01

This article seeks to establish a rapprochement between explicitly Bayesian models of contextual effects in perception and neural network models of such effects, particularly the connectionist interactive activation (IA) model of perception. The article is in part an historical review and in part a tutorial, reviewing the probabilistic Bayesian approach to understanding perception and how it may be shaped by context, and also reviewing ideas about how such probabilistic computations may be carried out in neural networks, focusing on the role of context in interactive neural networks, in which both bottom-up and top-down signals affect the interpretation of sensory inputs. It is pointed out that connectionist units that use the logistic or softmax activation functions can exactly compute Bayesian posterior probabilities when the bias terms and connection weights affecting such units are set to the logarithms of appropriate probabilistic quantities. Bayesian concepts such the prior, likelihood, (joint and marginal) posterior, probability matching and maximizing, and calculating vs. sampling from the posterior are all reviewed and linked to neural network computations. Probabilistic and neural network models are explicitly linked to the concept of a probabilistic generative model that describes the relationship between the underlying target of perception (e.g., the word intended by a speaker or other source of sensory stimuli) and the sensory input that reaches the perceiver for use in inferring the underlying target. It is shown how a new version of the IA model called the multinomial interactive activation (MIA) model can sample correctly from the joint posterior of a proposed generative model for perception of letters in words, indicating that interactive processing is fully consistent with principled probabilistic computation. Ways in which these computations might be realized in real neural systems are also considered.

A probabilistic model of RNA conformational space

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frellsen, Jes; Moltke, Ida; Thiim, Martin

2009-01-01

, the discrete nature of the fragments necessitates the use of carefully tuned, unphysical energy functions, and their non-probabilistic nature impairs unbiased sampling. We offer a solution to the sampling problem that removes these important limitations: a probabilistic model of RNA structure that allows...... conformations for 9 out of 10 test structures, solely using coarse-grained base-pairing information. In conclusion, the method provides a theoretical and practical solution for a major bottleneck on the way to routine prediction and simulation of RNA structure and dynamics in atomic detail.......The increasing importance of non-coding RNA in biology and medicine has led to a growing interest in the problem of RNA 3-D structure prediction. As is the case for proteins, RNA 3-D structure prediction methods require two key ingredients: an accurate energy function and a conformational sampling...

Quantitative Analysis of Probabilistic Models of Software Product Lines with Statistical Model Checking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

ter Beek, Maurice H.; Legay, Axel; Lluch Lafuente, Alberto

2015-01-01

We investigate the suitability of statistical model checking techniques for analysing quantitative properties of software product line models with probabilistic aspects. For this purpose, we enrich the feature-oriented language FLAN with action rates, which specify the likelihood of exhibiting pa...

On the logical specification of probabilistic transition models

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Rens, G

2013-05-01

Full Text Available We investigate the requirements for specifying the behaviors of actions in a stochastic domain. That is, we propose how to write sentences in a logical language to capture a model of probabilistic transitions due to the execution of actions of some...

A Probabilistic Model of Meter Perception: Simulating Enculturation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bastiaan van der Weij

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Enculturation is known to shape the perception of meter in music but this is not explicitly accounted for by current cognitive models of meter perception. We hypothesize that the induction of meter is a result of predictive coding: interpreting onsets in a rhythm relative to a periodic meter facilitates prediction of future onsets. Such prediction, we hypothesize, is based on previous exposure to rhythms. As such, predictive coding provides a possible explanation for the way meter perception is shaped by the cultural environment. Based on this hypothesis, we present a probabilistic model of meter perception that uses statistical properties of the relation between rhythm and meter to infer meter from quantized rhythms. We show that our model can successfully predict annotated time signatures from quantized rhythmic patterns derived from folk melodies. Furthermore, we show that by inferring meter, our model improves prediction of the onsets of future events compared to a similar probabilistic model that does not infer meter. Finally, as a proof of concept, we demonstrate how our model can be used in a simulation of enculturation. From the results of this simulation, we derive a class of rhythms that are likely to be interpreted differently by enculturated listeners with different histories of exposure to rhythms.

A methodology for acquiring qualitative knowledge for probabilistic graphical models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders L.

2004-01-01

We present a practical and general methodology that simplifies the task of acquiring and formulating qualitative knowledge for constructing probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). The methodology efficiently captures and communicates expert knowledge, and has significantly eased the model...

Non-probabilistic defect assessment for structures with cracks based on interval model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dai, Qiao; Zhou, Changyu; Peng, Jian; Chen, Xiangwei; He, Xiaohua

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Non-probabilistic approach is introduced to defect assessment. • Definition and establishment of IFAC are put forward. • Determination of assessment rectangle is proposed. • Solution of non-probabilistic reliability index is presented. -- Abstract: Traditional defect assessment methods conservatively treat uncertainty of parameters as safety factors, while the probabilistic method is based on the clear understanding of detailed statistical information of parameters. In this paper, the non-probabilistic approach is introduced to the failure assessment diagram (FAD) to propose a non-probabilistic defect assessment method for structures with cracks. This novel defect assessment method contains three critical processes: establishment of the interval failure assessment curve (IFAC), determination of the assessment rectangle, and solution of the non-probabilistic reliability degree. Based on the interval theory, uncertain parameters such as crack sizes, material properties and loads are considered as interval variables. As a result, the failure assessment curve (FAC) will vary in a certain range, which is defined as IFAC. And the assessment point will vary within a rectangle zone which is defined as an assessment rectangle. Based on the interval model, the establishment of IFAC and the determination of the assessment rectangle are presented. Then according to the interval possibility degree method, the non-probabilistic reliability degree of IFAC can be determined. Meanwhile, in order to clearly introduce the non-probabilistic defect assessment method, a numerical example for the assessment of a pipe with crack is given. In addition, the assessment result of the proposed method is compared with that of the traditional probabilistic method, which confirms that this non-probabilistic defect assessment can reasonably resolve the practical problem with interval variables

Non-probabilistic defect assessment for structures with cracks based on interval model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dai, Qiao; Zhou, Changyu, E-mail: changyu_zhou@163.com; Peng, Jian; Chen, Xiangwei; He, Xiaohua

2013-09-15

Highlights: • Non-probabilistic approach is introduced to defect assessment. • Definition and establishment of IFAC are put forward. • Determination of assessment rectangle is proposed. • Solution of non-probabilistic reliability index is presented. -- Abstract: Traditional defect assessment methods conservatively treat uncertainty of parameters as safety factors, while the probabilistic method is based on the clear understanding of detailed statistical information of parameters. In this paper, the non-probabilistic approach is introduced to the failure assessment diagram (FAD) to propose a non-probabilistic defect assessment method for structures with cracks. This novel defect assessment method contains three critical processes: establishment of the interval failure assessment curve (IFAC), determination of the assessment rectangle, and solution of the non-probabilistic reliability degree. Based on the interval theory, uncertain parameters such as crack sizes, material properties and loads are considered as interval variables. As a result, the failure assessment curve (FAC) will vary in a certain range, which is defined as IFAC. And the assessment point will vary within a rectangle zone which is defined as an assessment rectangle. Based on the interval model, the establishment of IFAC and the determination of the assessment rectangle are presented. Then according to the interval possibility degree method, the non-probabilistic reliability degree of IFAC can be determined. Meanwhile, in order to clearly introduce the non-probabilistic defect assessment method, a numerical example for the assessment of a pipe with crack is given. In addition, the assessment result of the proposed method is compared with that of the traditional probabilistic method, which confirms that this non-probabilistic defect assessment can reasonably resolve the practical problem with interval variables.

Weaving Together Science and English: An Interconnected Model of Language Development for Emergent Bilinguals

Science.gov (United States)

Ciechanowski, Kathryn M.

2014-01-01

This research explores third-grade science and language instruction for emergent bilinguals designed through a framework of planning, lessons, and assessment in an interconnected model including content, linguistic features, and functions. Participants were a team of language specialist, classroom teacher, and researcher who designed…

An analytic solution of a model of language competition with bilingualism and interlinguistic similarity

Science.gov (United States)

Otero-Espinar, M. V.; Seoane, L. F.; Nieto, J. J.; Mira, J.

2013-12-01

An in-depth analytic study of a model of language dynamics is presented: a model which tackles the problem of the coexistence of two languages within a closed community of speakers taking into account bilingualism and incorporating a parameter to measure the distance between languages. After previous numerical simulations, the model yielded that coexistence might lead to survival of both languages within monolingual speakers along with a bilingual community or to extinction of the weakest tongue depending on different parameters. In this paper, such study is closed with thorough analytical calculations to settle the results in a robust way and previous results are refined with some modifications. From the present analysis it is possible to almost completely assay the number and nature of the equilibrium points of the model, which depend on its parameters, as well as to build a phase space based on them. Also, we obtain conclusions on the way the languages evolve with time. Our rigorous considerations also suggest ways to further improve the model and facilitate the comparison of its consequences with those from other approaches or with real data.

A comprehensive probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, C.; Qin, T. X.; Jiang, B.; Huang, C.

2018-02-01

Oil pipelines network is one of the most important facilities of energy transportation. But oil pipelines network accident may result in serious disasters. Some analysis models for these accidents have been established mainly based on three methods, including event-tree, accident simulation and Bayesian network. Among these methods, Bayesian network is suitable for probabilistic analysis. But not all the important influencing factors are considered and the deployment rule of the factors has not been established. This paper proposed a probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network. Most of the important influencing factors, including the key environment condition and emergency response are considered in this model. Moreover, the paper also introduces a deployment rule for these factors. The model can be used in probabilistic analysis and sensitive analysis of oil pipelines network accident.

Bilingualism with and without CLIL, a Double-Edged Sword: Comparing Bilingual and Non Bilingual Young Learners' Beliefs about EFL and Science Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Sandoval Brotons, Alfonso Victor

2015-01-01

Bilingualism and its reference methodology: CLIL are spreading at a very fast pace all through educative systems from some years on. The young status of bilingual programmes leads to little research about how bilingualism is influencing real learning contexts and which factors play important roles in that influence. In this way, this study aims to…

Optimization and evaluation of probabilistic-logic sequence models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Henning; Lassen, Ole Torp

to, in principle, Turing complete languages. In general, such models are computationally far to complex for direct use, so optimization by pruning and approximation are needed. % The first steps are made towards a methodology for optimizing such models by approximations using auxiliary models......Analysis of biological sequence data demands more and more sophisticated and fine-grained models, but these in turn introduce hard computational problems. A class of probabilistic-logic models is considered, which increases the expressibility from HMM's and SCFG's regular and context-free languages...

A bilingual child learns social communication skills through video modeling-a single case study in a norwegian school setting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meral Özerk

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Video modeling is one of the recognized methods used in the training and teaching of children with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD. The model’s theoretical base stems from Albert Bandura's (1977; 1986 social learning theory in which he asserts that children can learn many skills and behaviors observationally through modeling. One can assume that by observing others, a child with ASD can construct an idea of how new behaviors are performed, and on later occasions this mentally and visually constructed information will serve as a guide for his/her way of behaving. There are two types of methods for model learning: 1 In Vivo Modeling and 2 Video Modeling. These can be used a to teach children with ASD skills that are not yet in their behavioral repertoire and / or b to improve the children's emerging behaviors or skills. In the case of linguistic minority children at any stage of their bilingual development, it has been presumed that some of their behaviors that can be interpreted as attitude or culture-related actions. This approach, however, can sometimes delay referral, diagnosis, and intervention. In our project, we used Video Modeling and achieved positive results with regard to teaching social communication skills and target behavior to an eleven year-old bilingual boy with ASD. Our study also reveals that through Video Modeling, children with ASD can learn desirable behavioral skills as by-products. Video Modeling can also contribute positively to the social inclusion of bilingual children with ASD in school settings. In other words, bilingual children with ASD can transfer the social communication skills and targeted behaviors they learn through second-language at school to a first-language milieu.

Costly bilingualism model in a population with one zealot

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Hyunsuk; Son, Seung-Woo

2013-08-01

We consider a costly bilingualism model in which one can take two strategies in parallel. We investigate how a single zealot triggers the cascading behavior and how the compatibility of the two strategies affects when interacting patterns change. First, the role of the interaction range in the cascading is studied by increasing the range from local to global. We find that people sometimes do not favor taking the superior strategy even though its payoff is higher than that of the inferior one. This is found to be caused by the local interactions rather than the global ones. Applying this model to social networks, we find that the location of the zealot is also important for larger cascading in heterogeneous networks.

Probabilistic Modeling of the Fatigue Crack Growth Rate for Ni-base Alloy X-750

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoon, J.Y.; Nam, H.O.; Hwang, I.S.; Lee, T.H.

2012-01-01

Extending the operating life of existing nuclear power plants (NPP's) beyond 60 years. Many aging problems of passive components such as PWSCC, IASCC, FAC and Corrosion Fatigue; Safety analysis: Deterministic analysis + Probabilistic analysis; Many uncertainties of parameters or relationship in general probabilistic analysis such as probabilistic safety assessment (PSA); Bayesian inference: Decreasing uncertainties by updating unknown parameter; Ensuring the reliability of passive components (e.g. pipes) as well as active components (e.g. valve, pump) in NPP's; Developing probabilistic model for failures; Updating the fatigue crack growth rate (FCGR)

Does Bilingualism Influence Cognitive Aging?

Science.gov (United States)

Bak, Thomas H; Nissan, Jack J; Allerhand, Michael M; Deary, Ian J

2014-01-01

Recent evidence suggests a positive impact of bilingualism on cognition, including later onset of dementia. However, monolinguals and bilinguals might have different baseline cognitive ability. We present the first study examining the effect of bilingualism on later-life cognition controlling for childhood intelligence. We studied 853 participants, first tested in 1947 (age = 11 years), and retested in 2008–2010. Bilinguals performed significantly better than predicted from their baseline cognitive abilities, with strongest effects on general intelligence and reading. Our results suggest a positive effect of bilingualism on later-life cognition, including in those who acquired their second language in adulthood. PMID:24890334

Trait-Dependent Biogeography: (Re)Integrating Biology into Probabilistic Historical Biogeographical Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Sukumaran, Jeet; Knowles, L Lacey

2018-04-20

The development of process-based probabilistic models for historical biogeography has transformed the field by grounding it in modern statistical hypothesis testing. However, most of these models abstract away biological differences, reducing species to interchangeable lineages. We present here the case for reintegration of biology into probabilistic historical biogeographical models, allowing a broader range of questions about biogeographical processes beyond ancestral range estimation or simple correlation between a trait and a distribution pattern, as well as allowing us to assess how inferences about ancestral ranges themselves might be impacted by differential biological traits. We show how new approaches to inference might cope with the computational challenges resulting from the increased complexity of these trait-based historical biogeographical models. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Language Control Abilities of Late Bilinguals

Science.gov (United States)

Festman, Julia

2012-01-01

Although all bilinguals encounter cross-language interference (CLI), some bilinguals are more susceptible to interference than others. Here, we report on language performance of late bilinguals (Russian/German) on two bilingual tasks (interview, verbal fluency), their language use and switching habits. The only between-group difference was CLI:…

A Probabilistic Typhoon Risk Model for Vietnam

Science.gov (United States)

Haseemkunju, A.; Smith, D. F.; Brolley, J. M.

2017-12-01

Annually, the coastal Provinces of low-lying Mekong River delta region in the southwest to the Red River Delta region in Northern Vietnam is exposed to severe wind and flood risk from landfalling typhoons. On average, about two to three tropical cyclones with a maximum sustained wind speed of >=34 knots make landfall along the Vietnam coast. Recently, Typhoon Wutip (2013) crossed Central Vietnam as a category 2 typhoon causing significant damage to properties. As tropical cyclone risk is expected to increase with increase in exposure and population growth along the coastal Provinces of Vietnam, insurance/reinsurance, and capital markets need a comprehensive probabilistic model to assess typhoon risk in Vietnam. In 2017, CoreLogic has expanded the geographical coverage of its basin-wide Western North Pacific probabilistic typhoon risk model to estimate the economic and insured losses from landfalling and by-passing tropical cyclones in Vietnam. The updated model is based on 71 years (1945-2015) of typhoon best-track data and 10,000 years of a basin-wide simulated stochastic tracks covering eight countries including Vietnam. The model is capable of estimating damage from wind, storm surge and rainfall flooding using vulnerability models, which relate typhoon hazard to building damageability. The hazard and loss models are validated against past historical typhoons affecting Vietnam. Notable typhoons causing significant damage in Vietnam are Lola (1993), Frankie (1996), Xangsane (2006), and Ketsana (2009). The central and northern coastal provinces of Vietnam are more vulnerable to wind and flood hazard, while typhoon risk in the southern provinces are relatively low.

Bilingual Identity Negotiation in Practice: Teacher Pedagogy and Classroom Interaction in a Bilingual Programme

Science.gov (United States)

Fielding, Ruth

2016-01-01

This paper discusses how teachers in a bilingual education programme see their pedagogies and interactions influencing student connection to the languages of the bilingual programme. The teacher perception of the classroom is explored because the classroom is one of the principal settings in which the students negotiate their bilingual identities.…

Probabilistic Data Modeling and Querying for Location-Based Data Warehouses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

Motivated by the increasing need to handle complex, dynamic, uncertain multidimensional data in location-based warehouses, this paper proposes a novel probabilistic data model that can address the complexities of such data. The model provides a foundation for handling complex hierarchical and unc...

Probabilistic Data Modeling and Querying for Location-Based Data Warehouses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

2005-01-01

Motivated by the increasing need to handle complex, dynamic, uncertain multidimensional data in location-based warehouses, this paper proposes a novel probabilistic data model that can address the complexities of such data. The model provides a foundation for handling complex hierarchical and unc...

Failure probabilistic model of CNC lathes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Yiqiang; Jia Yazhou; Yu Junyi; Zheng Yuhua; Yi Shangfeng

1999-01-01

A field failure analysis of computerized numerical control (CNC) lathes is described. Field failure data was collected over a period of two years on approximately 80 CNC lathes. A coding system to code failure data was devised and a failure analysis data bank of CNC lathes was established. The failure position and subsystem, failure mode and cause were analyzed to indicate the weak subsystem of a CNC lathe. Also, failure probabilistic model of CNC lathes was analyzed by fuzzy multicriteria comprehensive evaluation

Bilingualism and National Development in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozog, A. Conrad K.

1993-01-01

Malaysia's long tradition of English medium instruction and bilingualism officially ended in 1970. This paper reviews the role of bilingualism in the development of the country, including the role of a bilingual population in national development and the possible effects of the abandonment of bilingual education. (Contains 38 references.)…

Probabilistic transport models for fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milligen, B.Ph. van; Carreras, B.A.; Lynch, V.E.; Sanchez, R.

2005-01-01

A generalization of diffusive (Fickian) transport is considered, in which particle motion is described by probability distributions. We design a simple model that includes a critical mechanism to switch between two transport channels, and show that it exhibits various interesting characteristics, suggesting that the ideas of probabilistic transport might provide a framework for the description of a range of unusual transport phenomena observed in fusion plasmas. The model produces power degradation and profile consistency, as well as a scaling of the confinement time with system size reminiscent of the gyro-Bohm/Bohm scalings observed in fusion plasmas, and rapid propagation of disturbances. In the present work we show how this model may also produce on-axis peaking of the profiles with off-axis fuelling. It is important to note that the fluid limit of a simple model like this, characterized by two transport channels, does not correspond to the usual (Fickian) transport models commonly used for modelling transport in fusion plasmas, and behaves in a fundamentally different way. (author)

Un Bosquejo del Proyecto Bilingue (Outline of a Bilingual Project).

Science.gov (United States)

Compton City Schools, CA.

Bilingual education in English and Spanish is intended to give native speakers of both languages insights into two cultures, a broader background, and greater life opportunities. Spanish-speaking students in bilingual programs can retain their language ties and the ability to communicate with their families and older relatives. The directors of…

Probabilistic modelling and analysis of stand-alone hybrid power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lujano-Rojas, Juan M.; Dufo-López, Rodolfo; Bernal-Agustín, José L.

2013-01-01

As a part of the Hybrid Intelligent Algorithm, a model based on an ANN (artificial neural network) has been proposed in this paper to represent hybrid system behaviour considering the uncertainty related to wind speed and solar radiation, battery bank lifetime, and fuel prices. The Hybrid Intelligent Algorithm suggests a combination of probabilistic analysis based on a Monte Carlo simulation approach and artificial neural network training embedded in a genetic algorithm optimisation model. The installation of a typical hybrid system was analysed. Probabilistic analysis was used to generate an input–output dataset of 519 samples that was later used to train the ANNs to reduce the computational effort required. The generalisation ability of the ANNs was measured in terms of RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), MBE (Mean Bias Error), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), and R-squared estimators using another data group of 200 samples. The results obtained from the estimation of the expected energy not supplied, the probability of a determined reliability level, and the estimation of expected value of net present cost show that the presented model is able to represent the main characteristics of a typical hybrid power system under uncertain operating conditions. - Highlights: • This paper presents a probabilistic model for stand-alone hybrid power system. • The model considers the main sources of uncertainty related to renewable resources. • The Hybrid Intelligent Algorithm has been applied to represent hybrid system behaviour. • The installation of a typical hybrid system was analysed. • The results obtained from the study case validate the presented model

Dual Coding and Bilingual Memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Paivio, Allan; Lambert, Wallace

1981-01-01

Describes study which tested a dual coding approach to bilingual memory using tasks that permit comparison of the effects of bilingual encoding with verbal-nonverbal dual encoding items. Results provide strong support for a version of the independent or separate stories view of bilingual memory. (Author/BK)

Probabilistic Modelling of Timber Material Properties

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Michael Havbro Faber; Köhler, Jochen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2001-01-01

The probabilistic modeling of timber material characteristics is considered with special emphasis to the modeling of the effect of different quality control and selection procedures used as means for grading of timber in the production line. It is shown how statistical models may be established...... on the basis of the same type of information which is normally collected as a part of the quality control procedures and furthermore, how the efficiency of different control procedures may be compared. The tail behavior of the probability distributions of timber material characteristics play an important role...... such that they may readily be applied in structural reliability analysis and the format appears to be appropriate for codification purposes of quality control and selection for grading procedures...

Event-Based Media Enrichment Using an Adaptive Probabilistic Hypergraph Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xueliang; Wang, Meng; Yin, Bao-Cai; Huet, Benoit; Li, Xuelong

2015-11-01

Nowadays, with the continual development of digital capture technologies and social media services, a vast number of media documents are captured and shared online to help attendees record their experience during events. In this paper, we present a method combining semantic inference and multimodal analysis for automatically finding media content to illustrate events using an adaptive probabilistic hypergraph model. In this model, media items are taken as vertices in the weighted hypergraph and the task of enriching media to illustrate events is formulated as a ranking problem. In our method, each hyperedge is constructed using the K-nearest neighbors of a given media document. We also employ a probabilistic representation, which assigns each vertex to a hyperedge in a probabilistic way, to further exploit the correlation among media data. Furthermore, we optimize the hypergraph weights in a regularization framework, which is solved as a second-order cone problem. The approach is initiated by seed media and then used to rank the media documents using a transductive inference process. The results obtained from validating the approach on an event dataset collected from EventMedia demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Probabilistic Modelling of Information Propagation in Wireless Mobile Ad-Hoc Network

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schiøler, Henrik; Hansen, Martin Bøgsted; Schwefel, Hans-Peter

2005-01-01

In this paper the dynamics of broadcasting wireless ad-hoc networks is studied through probabilistic modelling. A randomized transmission discipline is assumed in accordance with existing MAC definitions such as WLAN with Decentralized Coordination or IEEE-802.15.4. Message reception is assumed...... to be governed by node power-down policies and is equivalently assumed to be randomized. Altogether randomization facilitates a probabilistic model in the shape of an integro-differential equation governing the propagation of information, where brownian node mobility may be accounted for by including an extra...... diffusion term. The established model is analyzed for transient behaviour and a travelling wave solution facilitates expressions for propagation speed as well as parametrized analysis of network reliability and node power consumption. Applications of the developed models for node localization and network...

Economic Dispatch for Microgrid Containing Electric Vehicles via Probabilistic Modeling: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yao, Yin; Gao, Wenzhong; Momoh, James; Muljadi, Eduard

2016-02-11

In this paper, an economic dispatch model with probabilistic modeling is developed for a microgrid. The electric power supply in a microgrid consists of conventional power plants and renewable energy power plants, such as wind and solar power plants. Because of the fluctuation in the output of solar and wind power plants, an empirical probabilistic model is developed to predict their hourly output. According to different characteristics of wind and solar power plants, the parameters for probabilistic distribution are further adjusted individually for both. On the other hand, with the growing trend in plug-in electric vehicles (PHEVs), an integrated microgrid system must also consider the impact of PHEVs. The charging loads from PHEVs as well as the discharging output via the vehicle-to-grid (V2G) method can greatly affect the economic dispatch for all of the micro energy sources in a microgrid. This paper presents an optimization method for economic dispatch in a microgrid considering conventional power plants, renewable power plants, and PHEVs. The simulation results reveal that PHEVs with V2G capability can be an indispensable supplement in a modern microgrid.

Self-Repair and Language Selection in Bilingual Speech Processing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Inga Hennecke

2013-07-01

Full Text Available In psycholinguistic research the exact level of language selection in bilingual lexical access is still controversial and current models of bilingual speech production offer conflicting statements about the mechanisms and location of language selection. This paper aims to provide a corpus analysis of self-repair mechanisms in code-switching contexts of highly fluent bilingual speakers in order to gain further insights into bilingual speech production. The present paper follows the assumptions of the Selection by Proficiency model, which claims that language proficiency and lexical robustness determine the mechanism and level of language selection. In accordance with this hypothesis, highly fluent bilinguals select languages at a prelexical level, which should influence the occurrence of self-repairs in bilingual speech. A corpus of natural speech data of highly fluent and balanced bilingual French-English speakers of the Canadian French variety Franco-Manitoban serves as the basis for a detailed analysis of different self-repair mechanisms in code-switching environments. Although the speech data contain a large amount of code-switching, results reveal that only a few speech errors and self-repairs occur in direct code-switching environments. A detailed analysis of the respective starting point of code-switching and the different repair mechanisms supports the hypothesis that highly proficient bilinguals do not select languages at the lexical level.Le niveau exact de la sélection des langues lors de l’accès lexical chez le bilingue reste une question controversée dans la recherche psycholinguistique. Les modèles actuels de la production verbale bilingue proposent des arguments contradictoires concernant le mécanisme et le lieu de la sélection des langues. La présente recherche vise à fournir une analyse de corpus mettant l’accent sur les mécanismes d’autoréparation dans le contexte d’alternance codique dans la production verbale

A note on probabilistic models over strings: the linear algebra approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Bouchard-Côté, Alexandre

2013-12-01

Probabilistic models over strings have played a key role in developing methods that take into consideration indels as phylogenetically informative events. There is an extensive literature on using automata and transducers on phylogenies to do inference on these probabilistic models, in which an important theoretical question is the complexity of computing the normalization of a class of string-valued graphical models. This question has been investigated using tools from combinatorics, dynamic programming, and graph theory, and has practical applications in Bayesian phylogenetics. In this work, we revisit this theoretical question from a different point of view, based on linear algebra. The main contribution is a set of results based on this linear algebra view that facilitate the analysis and design of inference algorithms on string-valued graphical models. As an illustration, we use this method to give a new elementary proof of a known result on the complexity of inference on the "TKF91" model, a well-known probabilistic model over strings. Compared to previous work, our proving method is easier to extend to other models, since it relies on a novel weak condition, triangular transducers, which is easy to establish in practice. The linear algebra view provides a concise way of describing transducer algorithms and their compositions, opens the possibility of transferring fast linear algebra libraries (for example, based on GPUs), as well as low rank matrix approximation methods, to string-valued inference problems.

Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine

2016-01-01

Roč. 369, č. 1 (2016), s. 532-547 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Ideal distribution * Minimum cross-entropy principle * Bayesian conditioning * Kullback-Leibler divergence * Bayesian nonparametric modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.832, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/karny-0463052.pdf

Age of acquisition and allophony in Spanish-English bilinguals

Science.gov (United States)

Barlow, Jessica A.

2014-01-01

This study examines age of acquisition (AoA) in Spanish-English bilinguals’ phonetic and phonological knowledge of /l/ in English and Spanish. In English, the lateral approximant /l/ varies in darkness by context [based on the second formant (F2) and the difference between F2 and the first formant (F1)], but the Spanish /l/ does not. Further, English /l/ is overall darker than Spanish /l/. Thirty-eight college-aged adults participated: 11 Early Spanish-English bilinguals who learned English before the age of 5 years, 14 Late Spanish-English bilinguals who learned English after the age of 6 years, and 13 English monolinguals. Participants’ /l/ productions were acoustically analyzed by language and context. The results revealed a Spanish-to-English phonetic influence on /l/ productions for both Early and Late bilinguals, as well as an English-to-Spanish phonological influence on the patterning of /l/ for the Late Bilinguals. These findings are discussed in terms of the Speech Learning Model and the effect of AoA on the interaction between a bilingual speaker’s two languages. PMID:24795664

Bilingual Advertising in Melbourne Chinatown

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Sherry Yong

2014-01-01

This paper explores the function of bilingual advertising by analyzing a case study of bilingual advertising in the Chinatown of Melbourne, Australia. The use of bilingual advertising in an immigrant setting differentiates itself from those in Asian settings where English is not used by dominant proportion of speakers in the society, and this…

The Gain-Loss Model: A Probabilistic Skill Multimap Model for Assessing Learning Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Robusto, Egidio; Stefanutti, Luca; Anselmi, Pasquale

2010-01-01

Within the theoretical framework of knowledge space theory, a probabilistic skill multimap model for assessing learning processes is proposed. The learning process of a student is modeled as a function of the student's knowledge and of an educational intervention on the attainment of specific skills required to solve problems in a knowledge…

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Joyner, James J., Sr.

2016-01-01

This presentation documents Kennedy Space Center's Independent Assessment work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer during key programmatic reviews and provided the GSDO Program with analyses of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and ground worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, a team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedy's Vehicle Assembly Building.

The relationship of bilingualism to cognitive decline: The Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

Science.gov (United States)

Mukadam, Naaheed; Jichi, Fatima; Green, David; Livingston, Gill

2018-02-01

We wished to clarify the link between bilingualism and cognitive decline, and examine whether improved executive function due to bilingualism may be a factor in preventing cognitive decline. We used the Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing which collected data on 2087 participants aged over 65 over 20 years. We compared baseline demographics, health, and social characteristics between bilingual and non-bilingual participants. We used linear mixed models analysis to explore the effect of bilingualism on MMSE score over time and linear regression to explore the effect of bilingualism on baseline MMSE scores, controlling for pre-specified potential confounders. Bilingual participants had lower baseline MMSE scores than the non-bilingual population (mean difference = -2.3 points; 95% confidence intervals = 1.56-2.90). This was fully explained by education and National Adult Reading Test scores (17.4; standard deviation [SD] =7.7 versus 28.1; SD = 8.2) which also partly explained baseline executive function test scores differences. Bilingual and non-bilingual participants did not differ in MMSE decline over time (-0.33 points, P = 0.31) nor on baseline tests of executive function (-0.26, P = 0.051). In this cohort, education rather than bilingualism was a predictor of MMSE score, and being bilingual did not protect from cognitive decline. We conclude that bilingualism is complex, and when it is not the result of greater educational attainment, it does not always protect from cognitive decline. Neuroprotective effects of bilingualism over time may be attributable to the precise patterns of language use but not to bilingualism per se. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

From sub-source to source: Interpreting results of biological trace investigations using probabilistic models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oosterman, W.T.; Kokshoorn, B.; Maaskant-van Wijk, P.A.; de Zoete, J.

2015-01-01

The current method of reporting a putative cell type is based on a non-probabilistic assessment of test results by the forensic practitioner. Additionally, the association between donor and cell type in mixed DNA profiles can be exceedingly complex. We present a probabilistic model for

Probabilistic model for sterilization of food

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chepurko, V.V.; Malinovskij, O.V.

1986-01-01

The probabilistic model for radiation sterilization is proposed based on the followng suppositions: (1) initial contamination of a volume unit of the sterilized product m is described by the distribution of the probabilities q(m), (2) inactivation of the population from m of microorganisms is approximated by Bernoulli test scheme, and (3) contamination of unit of the sterilized product is independent. The possibility of approximation q(m) by Poisson distribution is demonstrated. The diagrams are presented permitting to evaluate the dose which provides the defined reliability of sterilization of food for chicken-gnotobionts

Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Jaworske, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Goodenow, D.; Young, M.; Arellano, J. D.

2016-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

Privileging Bilingualism: Using Biliterate Writing Outcomes to Understand Emerging Bilingual Learners' Literacy Achievement

Science.gov (United States)

Hopewell, Susan; Butvilofsky, Sandra

2016-01-01

Language planning and policy with regard to bilingual education are greatly influenced by the ideologies outlined by Richard Ruiz. In this article, we demonstrate that Ruiz's language-as-resource orientation requires that we use two-language assessments to study how program models are both developing and conserving the languages that students…

A probabilistic model for US nuclear power construction times

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shash, A.A.H.

1988-01-01

Construction time for nuclear power plants is an important element in planning for resources to meet future load demands. Analysis of actual versus estimated construction times for past US nuclear power plants indicates that utilities have continuously underestimated their power plants' construction durations. The analysis also indicates that the actual average construction time has been increasing upward, and the actual durations of power plants permitted to construct in the same year varied substantially. This study presents two probabilistic models for nuclear power construction time for use by the nuclear industry as estimating tool. The study also presents a detailed explanation of the factors that are responsible for increasing and varying nuclear power construction times. Observations on 91 complete nuclear units were involved in three interdependent analyses in the process of explanation and derivation of the probabilistic models. The historical data was first utilized in the data envelopment analysis (DEA) for the purpose of obtaining frontier index measures for project management achievement in building nuclear power plants

Probabilistic disaggregation model with application to natural hazard risk assessment of portfolios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

In natural hazard risk assessment, a resolution mismatch between hazard data and aggregated exposure data is often observed. A possible solution to this issue is the disaggregation of exposure data to match the spatial resolution of hazard data. Disaggregation models available in literature...... disaggregation model that considers the uncertainty in the disaggregation, taking basis in the scaled Dirichlet distribution. The proposed probabilistic disaggregation model is applied to a portfolio of residential buildings in the Canton Bern, Switzerland, subject to flood risk. Thereby, the model is verified...... are usually deterministic and make use of auxiliary indicator, such as land cover, to spatially distribute exposures. As the dependence between auxiliary indicator and disaggregated number of exposures is generally imperfect, uncertainty arises in disaggregation. This paper therefore proposes a probabilistic...

A Practical Probabilistic Graphical Modeling Tool for Weighing ...

Science.gov (United States)

Past weight-of-evidence frameworks for adverse ecological effects have provided soft-scoring procedures for judgments based on the quality and measured attributes of evidence. Here, we provide a flexible probabilistic structure for weighing and integrating lines of evidence for ecological risk determinations. Probabilistic approaches can provide both a quantitative weighing of lines of evidence and methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty. The current modeling structure wasdeveloped for propagating uncertainties in measured endpoints and their influence on the plausibility of adverse effects. To illustrate the approach, we apply the model framework to the sediment quality triad using example lines of evidence for sediment chemistry measurements, bioassay results, and in situ infauna diversity of benthic communities using a simplified hypothetical case study. We then combine the three lines evidence and evaluate sensitivity to the input parameters, and show how uncertainties are propagated and how additional information can be incorporated to rapidly update the probability of impacts. The developed network model can be expanded to accommodate additional lines of evidence, variables and states of importance, and different types of uncertainties in the lines of evidence including spatial and temporal as well as measurement errors. We provide a flexible Bayesian network structure for weighing and integrating lines of evidence for ecological risk determinations

An Empirical Study of Efficiency and Accuracy of Probabilistic Graphical Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jens Dalgaard; Jaeger, Manfred

2006-01-01

In this paper we compare Na\\ii ve Bayes (NB) models, general Bayes Net (BN) models and Probabilistic Decision Graph (PDG) models w.r.t. accuracy and efficiency. As the basis for our analysis we use graphs of size vs. likelihood that show the theoretical capabilities of the models. We also measure...

Bilingual education in Slovakia: A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvia Pokrivčáková

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Bilingual education is one of the areas in contemporary education that brings out some important controversies (philosophical, conceptual, sociological, political, economical, etc. and thus calls for extensive and intensive debate. Bilingual education in Europe (and here the European Union countries are meant has gained a very different status, due to the general European policy of developing language diversity and promoting “European plurilingualism and multilingualism”. In Slovakia, one of the younger members of the EU, bilingual education became an extraordinarily popular instrument for the fulfilment of this task.  Since the specifically defined topic of bilingual education and its current status in Slovakia has not been studied and systematically reviewed yet, the research presented in this paper was designed as a single-phenomenon revelatory case study investigating seven research areas: reflection of bilingual education in school legislation and state pedagogical documents, purposes of bilingual education in Slovakia, its organization (levels and types of schools, foreign languages incorporated, teachers, structure of bilingual schools curricula, types of bilingual education applied at Slovak bilingual schools, and how bilingual education is both reflected in and saturated by the latest research findings. The conclusions presented in the paper were collected from multiple sources: state curriculum, statistical data published by the Slovak Ministry of Education or its partner institutions, international treaties on establishing and supporting bilingual sections of schools, bilingual schools curricula, interviews with school directors, teachers, and learners, direct observations at bilingual schools, research studies and research reports, etc. In the conclusion, bilingual education in Slovakia is identified as a unique, dynamically developing system which is both significantly shaped by the foreign language education policy promoted by

Probabilistic logics and probabilistic networks

CERN Document Server

Haenni, Rolf; Wheeler, Gregory; Williamson, Jon; Andrews, Jill

2014-01-01

Probabilistic Logic and Probabilistic Networks presents a groundbreaking framework within which various approaches to probabilistic logic naturally fit. Additionally, the text shows how to develop computationally feasible methods to mesh with this framework.

A study of probabilistic fatigue crack propagation models in Mg Al Zn alloys under different specimen thickness conditions by using the residual of a random variable

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Seon Soon

2012-01-01

The primary aim of this paper was to evaluate several probabilistic fatigue crack propagation models using the residual of a random variable, and to present the model fit for probabilistic fatigue behavior in Mg Al Zn alloys. The proposed probabilistic models are the probabilistic Paris Erdogan model, probabilistic Walker model, probabilistic Forman model, and probabilistic modified Forman models. These models were prepared by applying a random variable to the empirical fatigue crack propagation models with these names. The best models for describing fatigue crack propagation models with these names. The best models for describing fatigue crack propagation models with these names. The best models for describing fatigue crack propagation models with these names. The best models vor describing fatigue crack propagation behavior in Mg Al Zn alloys were generally the probabilistic Paris Erdogan and probabilistic Walker models. The probabilistic Forman model was a good model only for a specimen with a thickness of 9.45mm

Pipe fracture evaluations for leak-rate detection: Probabilistic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahman, S.; Wilkowski, G.; Ghadiali, N.

1993-01-01

This is the second in series of three papers generated from studies on nuclear pipe fracture evaluations for leak-rate detection. This paper focuses on the development of novel probabilistic models for stochastic performance evaluation of degraded nuclear piping systems. It was accomplished here in three distinct stages. First, a statistical analysis was conducted to characterize various input variables for thermo-hydraulic analysis and elastic-plastic fracture mechanics, such as material properties of pipe, crack morphology variables, and location of cracks found in nuclear piping. Second, a new stochastic model was developed to evaluate performance of degraded piping systems. It is based on accurate deterministic models for thermo-hydraulic and fracture mechanics analyses described in the first paper, statistical characterization of various input variables, and state-of-the-art methods of modem structural reliability theory. From this model. the conditional probability of failure as a function of leak-rate detection capability of the piping systems can be predicted. Third, a numerical example was presented to illustrate the proposed model for piping reliability analyses. Results clearly showed that the model provides satisfactory estimates of conditional failure probability with much less computational effort when compared with those obtained from Monte Carlo simulation. The probabilistic model developed in this paper will be applied to various piping in boiling water reactor and pressurized water reactor plants for leak-rate detection applications

Quantification of Wave Model Uncertainties Used for Probabilistic Reliability Assessments of Wave Energy Converters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ambühl, Simon; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2015-01-01

Wave models used for site assessments are subjected to model uncertainties, which need to be quantified when using wave model results for probabilistic reliability assessments. This paper focuses on determination of wave model uncertainties. Four different wave models are considered, and validation...... data are collected from published scientific research. The bias and the root-mean-square error, as well as the scatter index, are considered for the significant wave height as well as the mean zero-crossing wave period. Based on an illustrative generic example, this paper presents how the quantified...... uncertainties can be implemented in probabilistic reliability assessments....

Determination of Wave Model Uncertainties used for Probabilistic Reliability Assessments of Wave Energy Devices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ambühl, Simon; Kofoed, Jens Peter; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2014-01-01

Wave models used for site assessments are subject to model uncertainties, which need to be quantified when using wave model results for probabilistic reliability assessments. This paper focuses on determination of wave model uncertainties. Considered are four different wave models and validation...... data is collected from published scientific research. The bias, the root-mean-square error as well as the scatter index are considered for the significant wave height as well as the mean zero-crossing wave period. Based on an illustrative generic example it is shown how the estimated uncertainties can...... be implemented in probabilistic reliability assessments....

Does bilingualism influence cognitive aging?

Science.gov (United States)

Bak, Thomas H; Nissan, Jack J; Allerhand, Michael M; Deary, Ian J

2014-06-01

Recent evidence suggests a positive impact of bilingualism on cognition, including later onset of dementia. However, monolinguals and bilinguals might have different baseline cognitive ability. We present the first study examining the effect of bilingualism on later-life cognition controlling for childhood intelligence. We studied 853 participants, first tested in 1947 (age = 11 years), and retested in 2008-2010. Bilinguals performed significantly better than predicted from their baseline cognitive abilities, with strongest effects on general intelligence and reading. Our results suggest a positive effect of bilingualism on later-life cognition, including in those who acquired their second language in adulthood. © 2014 The Authors Annals of Neurology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Neurological Association. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Towards port sustainability through probabilistic models: Bayesian networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Molina

2018-04-01

Full Text Available It is necessary that a manager of an infrastructure knows relations between variables. Using Bayesian networks, variables can be classified, predicted and diagnosed, being able to estimate posterior probability of the unknown ones based on known ones. The proposed methodology has generated a database with port variables, which have been classified as economic, social, environmental and institutional, as addressed in of smart ports studies made in all Spanish Port System. Network has been developed using an acyclic directed graph, which have let us know relationships in terms of parents and sons. In probabilistic terms, it can be concluded from the constructed network that the most decisive variables for port sustainability are those that are part of the institutional dimension. It has been concluded that Bayesian networks allow modeling uncertainty probabilistically even when the number of variables is high as it occurs in port planning and exploitation.

Cross-Language Translation Priming Asymmetry with Chinese-English Bilinguals: A Test of the Sense Model

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Baoguo; Zhou, Huixia; Gao, Yiwen; Dunlap, Susan

2014-01-01

The present study aimed to test the Sense Model of cross-linguistic masked translation priming asymmetry, proposed by Finkbeiner et al. ("J Mem Lang" 51:1-22, 2004), by manipulating the number of senses that bilingual participants associated with words from both languages. Three lexical decision experiments were conducted with…

Probabilistic systems coalgebraically: A survey

Science.gov (United States)

Sokolova, Ana

2011-01-01

We survey the work on both discrete and continuous-space probabilistic systems as coalgebras, starting with how probabilistic systems are modeled as coalgebras and followed by a discussion of their bisimilarity and behavioral equivalence, mentioning results that follow from the coalgebraic treatment of probabilistic systems. It is interesting to note that, for different reasons, for both discrete and continuous probabilistic systems it may be more convenient to work with behavioral equivalence than with bisimilarity. PMID:21998490

What can speech production errors tell us about cross-linguistic processing in bilingual aphasia? Evidence from four English/Afrikaans bilingual individuals with aphasia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diane Kendall

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Introduction: The aim of this study is contribute to clinical practice of bilinguals around the globe, as well as to add to our understanding of bilingual aphasia processing, by analysing confrontation naming data from four Afrikaans/English bilingual individuals with acquired aphasia due to a left hemisphere stroke. Methods: This is a case series analysis of four Afrikaans/English bilingual aphasic individuals following a left cerebrovascular accident. Error analysis of confrontation naming data in both languages was performed. Research questions were directed toward the between language differences in lexical retrieval abilities, types of errors produced and degree of cognate overlap. Results: Three of the four participants showed significantly higher naming accuracy in first acquired language (L1 relative to the second acquired language (L2 and the largest proportion of error type for those three participants in both L1 and L2 was omission. One of the four participants (linguistically balanced showed no between language accuracy difference. Regarding cognate overlap, there was a trend for higher accuracy for higher cognate words (compared to low. Discussion: This study showed that naming performance in these four individuals was reflective of their relative language proficiency and use patterns prior to their stroke. These findings are consistent with the hierarchical model, in normal bilingual speakers and with persons with bilingual aphasia.

Probabilistic Programming (Invited Talk)

OpenAIRE

Yang, Hongseok

2017-01-01

Probabilistic programming refers to the idea of using standard programming constructs for specifying probabilistic models from machine learning and statistics, and employing generic inference algorithms for answering various queries on these models, such as posterior inference and estimation of model evidence. Although this idea itself is not new and was, in fact, explored by several programming-language and statistics researchers in the early 2000, it is only in the last few years that proba...

Probabilistic Modelling of Fatigue Life of Composite Laminates Using Bayesian Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov; Kiureghian, Armen Der

2014-01-01

A probabilistic model for estimating the fatigue life of laminated composite plates subjected to constant-amplitude or variable-amplitude loading is developed. The model is based on lamina-level input data, making it possible to predict fatigue properties for a wide range of laminate configuratio...

Speech and language intervention in bilinguals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eliane Ramos

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Increasingly, speech and language pathologists (SLPs around the world are faced with the unique set of issues presented by their bilingual clients. Some professional associations in different countries have presented recommendations when assessing and treating bilingual populations. In children, most of the studies have focused on intervention for language and phonology/ articulation impairments and very few focus on stuttering. In general, studies of language intervention tend to agree that intervention in the first language (L1 either increase performance on L2 or does not hinder it. In bilingual adults, monolingual versus bilingual intervention is especially relevant in cases of aphasia; dysarthria in bilinguals has been barely approached. Most studies of cross-linguistic effects in bilingual aphasics have focused on lexical retrieval training. It has been noted that even though a majority of studies have disclosed a cross-linguistic generalization from one language to the other, some methodological weaknesses are evident. It is concluded that even though speech and language intervention in bilinguals represents a most important clinical area in speech language pathology, much more research using larger samples and controlling for potentially confounding variables is evidently required.

Translanguaging in Bilingual Teacher Preparation: Exploring Pre-Service Bilingual Teachers' Academic Writing

Science.gov (United States)

Musanti, Sandra I.; Rodríguez, Alma D.

2017-01-01

Translanguaging, or the complex, dynamic, and integrated linguistic practices of bilinguals have been recently identified as a pedagogical strategy to facilitate learning in bilingual classrooms. Given its potential implications for teacher preparation, a qualitative case study was conducted at a university on the Texas-Mexico border to explore…

Understanding Bilingual Education: An Overview of Key Notions in the Literature and the Implications for Chinese University EFL Education

Science.gov (United States)

Ping, Wang

2017-01-01

This article starts with a review of definitions of bilingualism. It then discusses the definition of bilingual education with its focus on the analysis of bilingual competence. It is subsequently suggested that a theoretical hard nut to be cracked in today's bilingual research is to establish the scope of discussion of bilingualism models meeting…

Proyecto Bilingüe: Constructing a Figured World of Bilingual Education for Latina/o Bilingual Teachers

Science.gov (United States)

Ek, Lucila D.; Chávez, Guadalupe Domínguez

2015-01-01

Using theories of figured worlds, we demonstrate how Proyecto Bilingüe, a Master of Arts in Curriculum and Instruction program, constructs a figured world of bilingual education for Latina/o bilingual teachers. We drew from a larger qualitative study to conduct a thematic analysis of interviews with Latina/o bilingual teachers, their written…

Normal and abnormal aging in bilinguals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alfredo Ardila

Full Text Available Abstract Bilinguals use two different language systems to mediate not only social communication, but also cognitive processes. Potential differences between bilinguals and monolinguals in task-solving strategies and patterns of cognitive decline during normal and abnormal aging have been suggested. Main contribution: A research review of the area suggests that normal aging is associated with increased interference between the two languages and tendency to retreat to a single language. General cognitive functioning has been found to be higher in demented bilingual patients if communication is carried out in L1 rather than in L2. Recent research has reported that bilingualism can have a protective effect during aging, attenuating the normal cognitive decline associated with aging, and delaying the onset of dementia. Conclusions: Regardless of the significant heterogeneity of bilingualism and the diversity of patterns in language use during life-span, current research suggests that bilingualism is associated with preserved cognitive test performance during aging, and potentially can have some protective effect in dementia.

Global/local methods for probabilistic structural analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.

1993-04-01

A probabilistic global/local method is proposed to reduce the computational requirements of probabilistic structural analysis. A coarser global model is used for most of the computations with a local more refined model used only at key probabilistic conditions. The global model is used to establish the cumulative distribution function (cdf) and the Most Probable Point (MPP). The local model then uses the predicted MPP to adjust the cdf value. The global/local method is used within the advanced mean value probabilistic algorithm. The local model can be more refined with respect to the g1obal model in terms of finer mesh, smaller time step, tighter tolerances, etc. and can be used with linear or nonlinear models. The basis for this approach is described in terms of the correlation between the global and local models which can be estimated from the global and local MPPs. A numerical example is presented using the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis program with the finite element method used for the structural modeling. The results clearly indicate a significant computer savings with minimal loss in accuracy.

Consideration of aging in probabilistic safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Titina, B.; Cepin, M.

2007-01-01

Probabilistic safety assessment is a standardised tool for assessment of safety of nuclear power plants. It is a complement to the safety analyses. Standard probabilistic models of safety equipment assume component failure rate as a constant. Ageing of systems, structures and components can theoretically be included in new age-dependent probabilistic safety assessment, which generally causes the failure rate to be a function of age. New age-dependent probabilistic safety assessment models, which offer explicit calculation of the ageing effects, are developed. Several groups of components are considered which require their unique models: e.g. operating components e.g. stand-by components. The developed models on the component level are inserted into the models of the probabilistic safety assessment in order that the ageing effects are evaluated for complete systems. The preliminary results show that the lack of necessary data for consideration of ageing causes highly uncertain models and consequently the results. (author)

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Brogaard, Sara; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

2016-01-01

We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS

Multiple sequential failure model: A probabilistic approach to quantifying human error dependency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta

1985-01-01

This paper rpesents a probabilistic approach to quantifying human error dependency when multiple tasks are performed. Dependent human failures are dominant contributors to risks from nuclear power plants. An overview of the Multiple Sequential Failure (MSF) model developed and its use in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) depending on the available data are discussed. A small-scale psychological experiment was conducted on the nature of human dependency and the interpretation of the experimental data by the MSF model show remarkable accommodation of the dependent failure data. The model, which provides an unique method for quantification of dependent failures in human reliability analysis, can be used in conjunction with any of the general methods currently used for performing the human reliability aspect in PRAs

Predictors of Processing-Based Task Performance in Bilingual and Monolingual Children

Science.gov (United States)

Buac, Milijana; Gross, Megan; Kaushanskaya, Margarita

2016-01-01

In the present study we examined performance of bilingual Spanish-English-speaking and monolingual English-speaking school-age children on a range of processing-based measures within the framework of Baddeley’s working memory model. The processing-based measures included measures of short-term memory, measures of working memory, and a novel word-learning task. Results revealed that monolinguals outperformed bilinguals on the short-term memory tasks but not the working memory and novel word-learning tasks. Further, children’s vocabulary skills and socioeconomic status (SES) were more predictive of processing-based task performance in the bilingual group than the monolingual group. Together, these findings indicate that processing-based tasks that engage verbal working memory rather than short-term memory may be better-suited for diagnostic purposes with bilingual children. However, even verbal working memory measures are sensitive to bilingual children’s language-specific knowledge and demographic characteristics, and therefore may have limited clinical utility. PMID:27179914

Can model weighting improve probabilistic projections of climate change?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Raeisaenen, Jouni; Ylhaeisi, Jussi S. [Department of Physics, P.O. Box 48, University of Helsinki (Finland)

2012-10-15

Recently, Raeisaenen and co-authors proposed a weighting scheme in which the relationship between observable climate and climate change within a multi-model ensemble determines to what extent agreement with observations affects model weights in climate change projection. Within the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) dataset, this scheme slightly improved the cross-validated accuracy of deterministic projections of temperature change. Here the same scheme is applied to probabilistic temperature change projection, under the strong limiting assumption that the CMIP3 ensemble spans the actual modeling uncertainty. Cross-validation suggests that probabilistic temperature change projections may also be improved by this weighting scheme. However, the improvement relative to uniform weighting is smaller in the tail-sensitive logarithmic score than in the continuous ranked probability score. The impact of the weighting on projection of real-world twenty-first century temperature change is modest in most parts of the world. However, in some areas mainly over the high-latitude oceans, the mean of the distribution is substantially changed and/or the distribution is considerably narrowed. The weights of individual models vary strongly with location, so that a model that receives nearly zero weight in some area may still get a large weight elsewhere. Although the details of this variation are method-specific, it suggests that the relative strengths of different models may be difficult to harness by weighting schemes that use spatially uniform model weights. (orig.)

Probabilistic model of random uncertainties in structural dynamics for mis-tuned bladed disks; Modele probabiliste des incertitudes en dynamique des structures pour le desaccordage des roues aubagees

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Capiez-Lernout, E.; Soize, Ch. [Universite de Marne la Vallee, Lab. de Mecanique, 77 (France)

2003-10-01

The mis-tuning of blades is frequently the cause of spatial localizations for the dynamic forced response in turbomachinery industry. The random character of mis-tuning requires the construction of probabilistic models of random uncertainties. A usual parametric probabilistic description considers the mis-tuning through the Young modulus of each blade. This model consists in mis-tuning blade eigenfrequencies, assuming the blade modal shapes unchanged. Recently a new approach known as a non-parametric model of random uncertainties has been introduced for modelling random uncertainties in elasto-dynamics. This paper proposes the construction of a non-parametric model which is coherent with all the uncertainties which characterize mis-tuning. As mis-tuning is a phenomenon which is independent from one blade to another one, the structure is considered as an assemblage of substructures. The mean reduced matrix model required by the non-parametric approach is thus constructed by dynamic sub-structuring. A comparative approach is also needed to study the influence of the non-parametric approach for a usual parametric model adapted to mis-tuning. A numerical example is presented. (authors)

Developing Pavement Distress Deterioration Models for Pavement Management System Using Markovian Probabilistic Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Promothes Saha

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In the state of Colorado, the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT utilizes their pavement management system (PMS to manage approximately 9,100 miles of interstate, highways, and low-volume roads. Three types of deterioration models are currently being used in the existing PMS: site-specific, family, and expert opinion curves. These curves are developed using deterministic techniques. In the deterministic technique, the uncertainties of pavement deterioration related to traffic and weather are not considered. Probabilistic models that take into account the uncertainties result in more accurate curves. In this study, probabilistic models using the discrete-time Markov process were developed for five distress indices: transverse, longitudinal, fatigue, rut, and ride indices, as a case study on low-volume roads. Regression techniques were used to develop the deterioration paths using the predicted distribution of indices estimated from the Markov process. Results indicated that longitudinal, fatigue, and rut indices had very slow deterioration over time, whereas transverse and ride indices showed faster deterioration. The developed deterioration models had the coefficient of determination (R2 above 0.84. As probabilistic models provide more accurate results, it is recommended that these models be used as the family curves in the CDOT PMS for low-volume roads.

Information Architecture for Bilingual Web Sites.

Science.gov (United States)

Cunliffe, Daniel; Jones, Helen; Jarvis, Melanie; Egan, Kevin; Huws, Rhian; Munro, Sian

2002-01-01

Discusses creating an information architecture for a bilingual Web site and reports work in progress on the development of a content-based bilingual Web site to facilitate shared resources between speech and language therapists. Considers a structural analysis of existing bilingual Web designs and explains a card-sorting activity conducted with…

Using ELM-based weighted probabilistic model in the classification of synchronous EEG BCI.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Ping; Tan, Guan-Zheng; Cai, Zi-Xing; Sa, Wei-Ping; Zou, Yi-Qun

2017-01-01

Extreme learning machine (ELM) is an effective machine learning technique with simple theory and fast implementation, which has gained increasing interest from various research fields recently. A new method that combines ELM with probabilistic model method is proposed in this paper to classify the electroencephalography (EEG) signals in synchronous brain-computer interface (BCI) system. In the proposed method, the softmax function is used to convert the ELM output to classification probability. The Chernoff error bound, deduced from the Bayesian probabilistic model in the training process, is adopted as the weight to take the discriminant process. Since the proposed method makes use of the knowledge from all preceding training datasets, its discriminating performance improves accumulatively. In the test experiments based on the datasets from BCI competitions, the proposed method is compared with other classification methods, including the linear discriminant analysis, support vector machine, ELM and weighted probabilistic model methods. For comparison, the mutual information, classification accuracy and information transfer rate are considered as the evaluation indicators for these classifiers. The results demonstrate that our method shows competitive performance against other methods.

The impact of bilingualism on brain reserve and metabolic connectivity in Alzheimer's dementia.

Science.gov (United States)

Perani, Daniela; Farsad, Mohsen; Ballarini, Tommaso; Lubian, Francesca; Malpetti, Maura; Fracchetti, Alessandro; Magnani, Giuseppe; March, Albert; Abutalebi, Jubin

2017-02-14

Cognitive reserve (CR) prevents cognitive decline and delays neurodegeneration. Recent epidemiological evidence suggests that lifelong bilingualism may act as CR delaying the onset of dementia by ∼4.5 y. Much controversy surrounds the issue of bilingualism and its putative neuroprotective effects. We studied brain metabolism, a direct index of synaptic function and density, and neural connectivity to shed light on the effects of bilingualism in vivo in Alzheimer's dementia (AD). Eighty-five patients with probable AD and matched for disease duration (45 German-Italian bilingual speakers and 40 monolingual speakers) were included. Notably, bilingual individuals were on average 5 y older than their monolingual peers. In agreement with our predictions and with models of CR, cerebral hypometabolism was more severe in the group of bilingual individuals with AD. The metabolic connectivity analyses crucially supported the neuroprotective effect of bilingualism by showing an increased connectivity in the executive control and the default mode networks in the bilingual, compared with the monolingual, AD patients. Furthermore, the degree of lifelong bilingualism (i.e., high, moderate, or low use) was significantly correlated to functional modulations in crucial neural networks, suggesting both neural reserve and compensatory mechanisms. These findings indicate that lifelong bilingualism acts as a powerful CR proxy in dementia and exerts neuroprotective effects against neurodegeneration. Delaying the onset of dementia is a top priority of modern societies, and the present in vivo neurobiological evidence should stimulate social programs and interventions to support bilingual or multilingual education and the maintenance of the second language among senior citizens.

Bilingualism and Creativity in Early Childhood

Science.gov (United States)

Leikin, Mark; Tovli, Esther

2014-01-01

This study examined the possible effect of bilingualism on creativity in nonmathematical and mathematical problem solving among bilingual and monolingual preschoolers. Two groups of children (M age = 71.9 months, SD = 3.6) from the same monolingual kindergartens participated in this study: 15 Russian/Hebrew balanced bilinguals and 16 native…

Deaf Children's Bimodal Bilingualism and Education

Science.gov (United States)

Swanwick, Ruth

2016-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the research into deaf children's bilingualism and bilingual education through a synthesis of studies published over the last 15 years. This review brings together the linguistic and pedagogical work on bimodal bilingualism to inform educational practice. The first section of the review provides a synthesis of…

Probabilistic Modeling of Graded Timber Material Properties

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Faber, M. H.; Köhler, J.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2004-01-01

The probabilistic modeling of timber material characteristics is considered with special emphasis to the modeling of the effect of different quality control and selection procedures used as means for quality grading in the production line. It is shown how statistical models may be established...... on the basis of the same type of information which is normally collected as a part of the quality control procedures and furthermore, how the efficiency of different control procedures may be quantified and compared. The tail behavior of the probability distributions of timber material characteristics plays...... such that they may readily be applied in structural reliability analysis and their format appears to be appropriate for codification purposes of quality control and selection for grading procedures....

Modeling and analysis of cell membrane systems with probabilistic model checking

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Recently there has been a growing interest in the application of Probabilistic Model Checking (PMC) for the formal specification of biological systems. PMC is able to exhaustively explore all states of a stochastic model and can provide valuable insight into its behavior which are more difficult to see using only traditional methods for system analysis such as deterministic and stochastic simulation. In this work we propose a stochastic modeling for the description and analysis of sodium-potassium exchange pump. The sodium-potassium pump is a membrane transport system presents in all animal cell and capable of moving sodium and potassium ions against their concentration gradient. Results We present a quantitative formal specification of the pump mechanism in the PRISM language, taking into consideration a discrete chemistry approach and the Law of Mass Action aspects. We also present an analysis of the system using quantitative properties in order to verify the pump reversibility and understand the pump behavior using trend labels for the transition rates of the pump reactions. Conclusions Probabilistic model checking can be used along with other well established approaches such as simulation and differential equations to better understand pump behavior. Using PMC we can determine if specific events happen such as the potassium outside the cell ends in all model traces. We can also have a more detailed perspective on its behavior such as determining its reversibility and why its normal operation becomes slow over time. This knowledge can be used to direct experimental research and make it more efficient, leading to faster and more accurate scientific discoveries. PMID:22369714

Cognitive advantages and disadvantages in early and late bilinguals.

Science.gov (United States)

Pelham, Sabra D; Abrams, Lise

2014-03-01

Previous research has documented advantages and disadvantages of early bilinguals, defined as learning a 2nd language by school age and using both languages since that time. Relative to monolinguals, early bilinguals manifest deficits in lexical access but benefits in executive function. We investigated whether becoming bilingual after childhood (late bilinguals) can produce the cognitive advantages and disadvantages typical of early bilinguals. Participants were 30 monolingual English speakers, 30 late English-Spanish bilinguals, and 30 early Spanish-English bilinguals who completed a picture naming task (lexical access) and an attentional network task (executive function). Late and early bilinguals manifested equivalent cognitive effects in both tasks, demonstrating lexical access deficits and executive function benefits. These findings provide support for the hypothesis that cognitive effects associated with bilingualism arise as the result of proficient, habitual use of 2 languages and not of developmental changes associated with becoming bilingual during childhood.

Bilingualism: consequences for mind and brain.

Science.gov (United States)

Bialystok, Ellen; Craik, Fergus I M; Luk, Gigi

2012-04-01

Building on earlier evidence showing a beneficial effect of bilingualism on children's cognitive development, we review recent studies using both behavioral and neuroimaging methods to examine the effects of bilingualism on cognition in adulthood and explore possible mechanisms for these effects. This research shows that bilingualism has a somewhat muted effect in adulthood but a larger role in older age, protecting against cognitive decline, a concept known as 'cognitive reserve'. We discuss recent evidence that bilingualism is associated with a delay in the onset of symptoms of dementia. Cognitive reserve is a crucial research area in the context of an aging population; the possibility that bilingualism contributes to cognitive reserve is therefore of growing importance as populations become increasingly diverse. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Communication, Constructivism, and Transfer of Knowledge in the Education of Bilingual Learners.

Science.gov (United States)

Olivares, Rafael A.

2002-01-01

Discusses a theoretical framework to educate bilingual learners that links the communicative approach and the constructivist approach to learning with the transfer of knowledge from one language to another. The framework is illustrated in the communication, constructivism, and transference of knowledge (CCT) model where bilingual students use…

Probabilistic Fatigue Damage Prognosis Using a Surrogate Model Trained Via 3D Finite Element Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Leser, Patrick E.; Hochhalter, Jacob D.; Newman, John A.; Leser, William P.; Warner, James E.; Wawrzynek, Paul A.; Yuan, Fuh-Gwo

2015-01-01

Utilizing inverse uncertainty quantification techniques, structural health monitoring can be integrated with damage progression models to form probabilistic predictions of a structure's remaining useful life. However, damage evolution in realistic structures is physically complex. Accurately representing this behavior requires high-fidelity models which are typically computationally prohibitive. In the present work, a high-fidelity finite element model is represented by a surrogate model, reducing computation times. The new approach is used with damage diagnosis data to form a probabilistic prediction of remaining useful life for a test specimen under mixed-mode conditions.

Simultaneous vs. Successive Bilingualism among Preschool-Aged Children: A Study of Four-Year-Old Korean-English Bilinguals in the USA

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Ah-Young; Park, Anne; Lust, Barbara

2018-01-01

The current study compares simultaneous vs. successive bilingualism through a mixed-method research design with four four-year-old Korean-English bilingual children who were born and raised in the USA. Two simultaneous bilinguals were exposed to Korean and English from birth, whereas two successive bilinguals were exposed to Korean from birth, but…

Bayesian uncertainty analyses of probabilistic risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.

1989-01-01

Applications of Bayesian principles to the uncertainty analyses are discussed in the paper. A short review of the most important uncertainties and their causes is provided. An application of the principle of maximum entropy to the determination of Bayesian prior distributions is described. An approach based on so called probabilistic structures is presented in order to develop a method of quantitative evaluation of modelling uncertainties. The method is applied to a small example case. Ideas for application areas for the proposed method are discussed

Probabilistic Modeling and Visualization for Bankruptcy Prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Antunes, Francisco; Ribeiro, Bernardete; Pereira, Francisco Camara

2017-01-01

In accounting and finance domains, bankruptcy prediction is of great utility for all of the economic stakeholders. The challenge of accurate assessment of business failure prediction, specially under scenarios of financial crisis, is known to be complicated. Although there have been many successful...... studies on bankruptcy detection, seldom probabilistic approaches were carried out. In this paper we assume a probabilistic point-of-view by applying Gaussian Processes (GP) in the context of bankruptcy prediction, comparing it against the Support Vector Machines (SVM) and the Logistic Regression (LR......). Using real-world bankruptcy data, an in-depth analysis is conducted showing that, in addition to a probabilistic interpretation, the GP can effectively improve the bankruptcy prediction performance with high accuracy when compared to the other approaches. We additionally generate a complete graphical...

Probabilistic models for steel corrosion loss and pitting of marine infrastructure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melchers, R.E.; Jeffrey, R.J.

2008-01-01

With the increasing emphasis on attempting to retain in service ageing infrastructure models for the description and prediction of corrosion losses and for maximum pit depth are of increasing interest. In most cases assessment and prediction will be done in a probabilistic risk assessment framework and this then requires probabilistic corrosion models. Recently, novel models for corrosion loss and maximum pit depth under marine immersion conditions have been developed. The models show that both corrosion loss and pit depth progress in a non-linear fashion with increased exposure time and do so in a non-monotonic manner as a result of the controlling corrosion process changing from oxidation to being influenced by bacterial action. For engineers the importance of this lies in the fact that conventional 'corrosion rates' have no validity, particularly for the long-term corrosion effects as relevant to deteriorated infrastructure. The models are consistent with corrosion science principles as well as current understanding of the considerable influence of bacterial processes on corrosion loss and pitting. The considerable practical implications of this are described

A Probabilistic Graphical Model to Detect Chromosomal Domains

Science.gov (United States)

Heermann, Dieter; Hofmann, Andreas; Weber, Eva

To understand the nature of a cell, one needs to understand the structure of its genome. For this purpose, experimental techniques such as Hi-C detecting chromosomal contacts are used to probe the three-dimensional genomic structure. These experiments yield topological information, consistently showing a hierarchical subdivision of the genome into self-interacting domains across many organisms. Current methods for detecting these domains using the Hi-C contact matrix, i.e. a doubly-stochastic matrix, are mostly based on the assumption that the domains are distinct, thus non-overlapping. For overcoming this simplification and for being able to unravel a possible nested domain structure, we developed a probabilistic graphical model that makes no a priori assumptions on the domain structure. Within this approach, the Hi-C contact matrix is analyzed using an Ising like probabilistic graphical model whose coupling constant is proportional to each lattice point (entry in the contact matrix). The results show clear boundaries between identified domains and the background. These domain boundaries are dependent on the coupling constant, so that one matrix yields several clusters of different sizes, which show the self-interaction of the genome on different scales. This work was supported by a Grant from the International Human Frontier Science Program Organization (RGP0014/2014).

What is it like to grow up to be bilingual?-A survey report on bilingual high school students-

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Satoshi Tamiya

2014-10-01

Full Text Available In this era of globalization, Japanese teachers as well as teachers in other areas of the world have increasing chances of encountering bilingual students such as returnees and immigrants. It is important to understand the development of these students. The authors conducted a survey about bilingualism on 60 bilingual high school students at an international school in Japan. The survey questions asked about the students’ background and their experiences as a bilingual. Twenty-nine students responded to the survey. The responses were classified according to whether the reported advantages/disadvantages were linguistic, socio-cultural or identity-related. Linguistic disadvantages as well as advantages were experienced by most students. Bilingual influences on identity were mostly favorable, but some difficulties were common. Despite these disadvantages, socio-cultural advantages were prominent. It was reassuring to see that many bilingual high school students felt they were socio-culturally advantaged and mostly felt secure about their identity as a bilingual. However, we should not dismiss linguistic difficulties experienced by many of them and some cases of insecure identity, as these are crucially related to the mental health and creation of self-identity that is typical of adolescence.

Impact of Bilingualism on Cognitive Outcome After Stroke.

Science.gov (United States)

Alladi, Suvarna; Bak, Thomas H; Mekala, Shailaja; Rajan, Amulya; Chaudhuri, Jaydip Ray; Mioshi, Eneida; Krovvidi, Rajesh; Surampudi, Bapiraju; Duggirala, Vasanta; Kaul, Subhash

2016-01-01

Bilingualism has been associated with slower cognitive aging and a later onset of dementia. In this study, we aimed to determine whether bilingualism also influences cognitive outcome after stroke. We examined 608 patients with ischemic stroke from a large stroke registry and studied the role of bilingualism in predicting poststroke cognitive impairment in the absence of dementia. A larger proportion of bilinguals had normal cognition compared with monolinguals (40.5% versus 19.6%; Pdementia and vascular mild cognitive impairment (monolinguals 77.7% versus bilinguals 49.0%; Pbilinguals 10.5%; P=0.354). Bilingualism was found to be an independent predictor of poststroke cognitive impairment. Our results suggest that bilingualism leads to a better cognitive outcome after stroke, possibly by enhancing cognitive reserve. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Being Bilingual: Issues for Cross-Language Research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bogusia Temple

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The current political debates in England highlight the role of language in citizenship, social exclusion, and discrimination. Similar debates can also be found around the world. Correspondingly, research addressing different language communities is burgeoning. Service providers and academics are increasingly employing bilingual community researchers or interpreters to carry out research. However, there is very little written about the effect of working with bilingual researchers. What it means to be bilingual is often essentialised and rarely problematised. Bilingual researchers are seen as unproblematically acting as bridges between communities just because they are bilingual. Their ties to communities, their use of language, and their perspectives on the research are rarely investigated. Language is tied in an unproblematic way to meaning, values, and beliefs. In this article, I use examples from my own research to question what it means to be bilingual and to do cross-language research. I argue that there is no straightforward way in which meanings can be read off from researchers’ ties to language and that being bilingual is not the same for everyone.

Bilingual Intercultural Education in Ecuador: A Study of Social Demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcelo Bastidas Jiménez

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The Intercultural Bilingual Education System in Ecuador is guaranteed by the Constitution and assured by the Organic Law of Intercultural Bilingual Education, in a process that took a few decades to the indigenous population. The Ecuadorian state currently counts with a Model of Intercultural Bilingual Education that has its own structure, attached to the Ministry of Education and responsible for generating educational guidelines for 35 indigenous nationalities that coexist in the country. The objective of this study is to analyze the social demand for the Bachelor in Intercultural Bilingual Education, offered by Universidad Politécnica Salesiana. The analysis was carried out through two studies, one of them quantitative, addressed to educational institutions, and the other one qualitative and directed to government officials. The research objectives were to determine the need for graduates in Intercultural Bilingual Education, identify the desired profile of graduates of the career and academic requirements for a successful career. The results highlighted that the current presence of professionals in bilingual intercultural education is 0,65 per institution, with an average necessity of 1,85, which determines the existence of a demand in the next three years of 3 315 professionals. The main conclusion is that there is a significant demand for this career. Although the deficiencies of the current educational system, there in a strengthening trend.

Does Bilingualism Delay the Development of Dementia?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amy L Atkinson

2016-08-01

Full Text Available It has been suggested that bilingualism (where individuals speak two languages may delay the development of dementia. However, much of the research is inconclusive. Some researchers have reported that bilingualism delays the onset and diagnosis of dementia, whilst other studies have found weak or even detrimental effects. This paper reviews a series of nine empirical studies, published up until March 2016, which investigated whether bilingualism significantly delays the onset of dementia. The article also explores whether the inconsistent findings can be attributed to differences in study designs or the definitions of bilingualism used between studies. Based on current evidence, it appears that lifelong bilingualism, where individuals frequently use both languages, may be protective against dementia. However, becoming bilingual in adulthood or using the second language infrequently is unlikely to substantially delay onset of the disease.

Understanding onsets of rainfall in Southern Africa using temporal probabilistic modelling

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Cheruiyot, D

2010-12-01

Full Text Available This research investigates an alternative approach to automatically evolve the hidden temporal distribution of onset of rainfall directly from multivariate time series (MTS) data in the absence of domain experts. Temporal probabilistic modelling...

The Terrestrial Investigation Model: A probabilistic risk assessment model for birds exposed to pesticides

Science.gov (United States)

One of the major recommendations of the National Academy of Science to the USEPA, NMFS and USFWS was to utilize probabilistic methods when assessing the risks of pesticides to federally listed endangered and threatened species. The Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM, version 3....

Probabilistic modelling of the high-pressure arc cathode spot displacement dynamic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coulombe, Sylvain

2003-01-01

A probabilistic modelling approach for the study of the cathode spot displacement dynamic in high-pressure arc systems is developed in an attempt to interpret the observed voltage fluctuations. The general framework of the model allows to define simple, probabilistic displacement rules, the so-called cathode spot dynamic rules, for various possible surface states (un-arced metal, arced, contaminated) and to study the resulting dynamic of the cathode spot displacements over one or several arc passages. The displacements of the type-A cathode spot (macro-spot) in a magnetically rotating arc using concentric electrodes made up of either clean or contaminated metal surfaces is considered. Experimental observations for this system revealed a 1/f -tilde1 signature in the frequency power spectrum (FPS) of the arc voltage for anchoring arc conditions on the cathode (e.g. clean metal surface), while it shows a 'white noise' signature for conditions favouring a smooth movement (e.g. oxide-contaminated cathode surface). Through an appropriate choice of the local probabilistic displacement rules, the model is able to correctly represent the dynamic behaviours of the type-A cathode spot, including the FPS for the arc elongation (i.e. voltage) and the arc erosion trace formation. The model illustrates that the cathode spot displacements between re-strikes can be seen as a diffusion process with a diffusion constant which depends on the surface structure. A physical interpretation for the jumping probability associated with the re-strike event is given in terms of the electron emission processes across dielectric contaminants present on the cathode surface

Branching bisimulation congruence for probabilistic systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Trcka, N.; Georgievska, S.; Aldini, A.; Baier, C.

2008-01-01

The notion of branching bisimulation for the alternating model of probabilistic systems is not a congruence with respect to parallel composition. In this paper we first define another branching bisimulation in the more general model allowing consecutive probabilistic transitions, and we prove that

Bilingualism as a potential strategy to improve executive function in preterm infants: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Head, Lauren M; Baralt, Melissa; Darcy Mahoney, Ashley E

2015-01-01

Preterm birth is associated with long-term deficits in executive functioning and cognitive performance. Using the model of brain plasticity as a theoretical framework, it is possible that preterm infants' neurodevelopmental sequelae can be altered. Evidence suggests that bilingualism confers cognitive advantages on executive functioning, so it is possible that bilingualism may improve preterm infants' neurodevelopment. However, bilingualism has only been studied in term children. This review examined literature that compared the performance of preterm-born children to term children and bilingual children to monolingual children on executive function tasks. To address cognitive disparities in preterm-born children, studies investigating the effect of bilingualism on preterm infants' executive functioning is warranted. Copyright © 2015 National Association of Pediatric Nurse Practitioners. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bilingual language control and general purpose cognitive control among individuals with bilingual aphasia: evidence based on negative priming and flanker tasks.

Science.gov (United States)

Dash, Tanya; Kar, Bhoomika R

2014-01-01

Bilingualism results in an added advantage with respect to cognitive control. The interaction between bilingual language control and general purpose cognitive control systems can also be understood by studying executive control among individuals with bilingual aphasia. objectives: The current study examined the subcomponents of cognitive control in bilingual aphasia. A case study approach was used to investigate whether cognitive control and language control are two separate systems and how factors related to bilingualism interact with control processes. Four individuals with bilingual aphasia performed a language background questionnaire, picture description task, and two experimental tasks (nonlinguistic negative priming task and linguistic and nonlinguistic versions of flanker task). A descriptive approach was used to analyse the data using reaction time and accuracy measures. The cumulative distribution function plots were used to visualize the variations in performance across conditions. The results highlight the distinction between general purpose cognitive control and bilingual language control mechanisms. All participants showed predominant use of the reactive control mechanism to compensate for the limited resources system. Independent yet interactive systems for bilingual language control and general purpose cognitive control were postulated based on the experimental data derived from individuals with bilingual aphasia.

Discourses on Bilingualism in Canadian French Immersion Programs

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, Sylvie; Galiev, Albert

2011-01-01

The present article examines discourses on bilingualism in French immersion schools and connects local ideologies of bilingualism to a more global view of what it means to be bilingual in Canada. Bilingualism is usually regarded as two isolated monolingualisms (or monolingual systems) in which there is no place for code-switching, uneven language…

Probabilistic programming in Python using PyMC3

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Salvatier

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Probabilistic programming allows for automatic Bayesian inference on user-defined probabilistic models. Recent advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC sampling allow inference on increasingly complex models. This class of MCMC, known as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, requires gradient information which is often not readily available. PyMC3 is a new open source probabilistic programming framework written in Python that uses Theano to compute gradients via automatic differentiation as well as compile probabilistic programs on-the-fly to C for increased speed. Contrary to other probabilistic programming languages, PyMC3 allows model specification directly in Python code. The lack of a domain specific language allows for great flexibility and direct interaction with the model. This paper is a tutorial-style introduction to this software package.

Cognitive Advantages of Bilingual Children in Different Sociolinguistic Contexts

Science.gov (United States)

Blom, Elma; Boerma, Tessel; Bosma, Evelyn; Cornips, Leonie; Everaert, Emma

2017-01-01

Many studies have shown that bilingual children outperform monolinguals on tasks testing executive functioning, but other studies have not revealed any effect of bilingualism. In this study we compared three groups of bilingual children in the Netherlands, aged 6–7 years, with a monolingual control group. We were specifically interested in testing whether the bilingual cognitive advantage is modulated by the sociolinguistic context of language use. All three bilingual groups were exposed to a minority language besides the nation’s dominant language (Dutch). Two bilingual groups were exposed to a regional language (Frisian, Limburgish), and a third bilingual group was exposed to a migrant language (Polish). All children participated in two working memory tasks (verbal, visuospatial) and two attention tasks (selective attention, interference suppression). Bilingual children outperformed monolinguals on selective attention. The cognitive effect of bilingualism was most clearly present in the Frisian-Dutch group and in a subgroup of migrant children who were relatively proficient in Polish. The effect was less robust in the Limburgish-Dutch sample. Investigation of the response patterns of the flanker test, testing interference suppression, suggested that bilingual children more often show an effect of response competition than the monolingual children, demonstrating that bilingual children attend to different aspects of the task than monolingual children. No bilingualism effects emerged for verbal and visuospatial working memory. PMID:28484403

Cognitive Advantages of Bilingual Children in Different Sociolinguistic Contexts.

Science.gov (United States)

Blom, Elma; Boerma, Tessel; Bosma, Evelyn; Cornips, Leonie; Everaert, Emma

2017-01-01

Many studies have shown that bilingual children outperform monolinguals on tasks testing executive functioning, but other studies have not revealed any effect of bilingualism. In this study we compared three groups of bilingual children in the Netherlands, aged 6-7 years, with a monolingual control group. We were specifically interested in testing whether the bilingual cognitive advantage is modulated by the sociolinguistic context of language use. All three bilingual groups were exposed to a minority language besides the nation's dominant language (Dutch). Two bilingual groups were exposed to a regional language (Frisian, Limburgish), and a third bilingual group was exposed to a migrant language (Polish). All children participated in two working memory tasks (verbal, visuospatial) and two attention tasks (selective attention, interference suppression). Bilingual children outperformed monolinguals on selective attention. The cognitive effect of bilingualism was most clearly present in the Frisian-Dutch group and in a subgroup of migrant children who were relatively proficient in Polish. The effect was less robust in the Limburgish-Dutch sample. Investigation of the response patterns of the flanker test, testing interference suppression, suggested that bilingual children more often show an effect of response competition than the monolingual children, demonstrating that bilingual children attend to different aspects of the task than monolingual children. No bilingualism effects emerged for verbal and visuospatial working memory.

Effects of primary and secondary morphological family size in monolingual and bilingual word processing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mulder, K.; Dijkstra, A.F.J.; Schreuder, R.; Baayen, Harald

2014-01-01

This study investigated primary and secondary morphological family size effects in monolingual and bilingual processing, combining experimentation with computational modeling. Family size effects were investigated in an English lexical decision task for Dutch-English bilinguals and English

Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghahramani, Zoubin

2015-05-28

How can a machine learn from experience? Probabilistic modelling provides a framework for understanding what learning is, and has therefore emerged as one of the principal theoretical and practical approaches for designing machines that learn from data acquired through experience. The probabilistic framework, which describes how to represent and manipulate uncertainty about models and predictions, has a central role in scientific data analysis, machine learning, robotics, cognitive science and artificial intelligence. This Review provides an introduction to this framework, and discusses some of the state-of-the-art advances in the field, namely, probabilistic programming, Bayesian optimization, data compression and automatic model discovery.

Probabilistic machine learning and artificial intelligence

Science.gov (United States)

Ghahramani, Zoubin

2015-05-01

How can a machine learn from experience? Probabilistic modelling provides a framework for understanding what learning is, and has therefore emerged as one of the principal theoretical and practical approaches for designing machines that learn from data acquired through experience. The probabilistic framework, which describes how to represent and manipulate uncertainty about models and predictions, has a central role in scientific data analysis, machine learning, robotics, cognitive science and artificial intelligence. This Review provides an introduction to this framework, and discusses some of the state-of-the-art advances in the field, namely, probabilistic programming, Bayesian optimization, data compression and automatic model discovery.

Reasoning with probabilistic and deterministic graphical models exact algorithms

CERN Document Server

Dechter, Rina

2013-01-01

Graphical models (e.g., Bayesian and constraint networks, influence diagrams, and Markov decision processes) have become a central paradigm for knowledge representation and reasoning in both artificial intelligence and computer science in general. These models are used to perform many reasoning tasks, such as scheduling, planning and learning, diagnosis and prediction, design, hardware and software verification, and bioinformatics. These problems can be stated as the formal tasks of constraint satisfaction and satisfiability, combinatorial optimization, and probabilistic inference. It is well

Bilingualism accentuates children's conversational understanding.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Siegal

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although bilingualism is prevalent throughout the world, little is known about the extent to which it influences children's conversational understanding. Our investigation involved children aged 3-6 years exposed to one or more of four major languages: English, German, Italian, and Japanese. In two experiments, we examined the children's ability to identify responses to questions as violations of conversational maxims (to be informative and avoid redundancy, to speak the truth, be relevant, and be polite. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In Experiment 1, with increasing age, children showed greater sensitivity to maxim violations. Children in Italy who were bilingual in German and Italian (with German as the dominant language L1 significantly outperformed Italian monolinguals. In Experiment 2, children in England who were bilingual in English and Japanese (with English as L1 significantly outperformed Japanese monolinguals in Japan with vocabulary age partialled out. CONCLUSIONS: As the monolingual and bilingual groups had a similar family SES background (Experiment 1 and similar family cultural identity (Experiment 2, these results point to a specific role for early bilingualism in accentuating children's developing ability to appreciate effective communicative responses.

Probabilistic safety assessment model in consideration of human factors based on object-oriented bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou Zhongbao; Zhou Jinglun; Sun Quan

2007-01-01

Effect of Human factors on system safety is increasingly serious, which is often ignored in traditional probabilistic safety assessment methods however. A new probabilistic safety assessment model based on object-oriented Bayesian networks is proposed in this paper. Human factors are integrated into the existed event sequence diagrams. Then the classes of the object-oriented Bayesian networks are constructed which are converted to latent Bayesian networks for inference. Finally, the inference results are integrated into event sequence diagrams for probabilistic safety assessment. The new method is applied to the accident of loss of coolant in a nuclear power plant. the results show that the model is not only applicable to real-time situation assessment, but also applicable to situation assessment based certain amount of information. The modeling complexity is kept down and the new method is appropriate to large complex systems due to the thoughts of object-oriented. (authors)

Effects of Marathi-Hindi Bilingualism on Neuropsychological Performance

Science.gov (United States)

Kamat, Rujvi; Ghate, Manisha; Gollan, Tamar H.; Meyer, Rachel; Vaida, Florin; Heaton, Robert K.; Letendre, Scott; Franklin, Donald; Alexander, Terry; Grant, Igor; Mehendale, Sanjay; Marcotte, Thomas D.

2013-01-01

The present study aimed to examine if bilingualism affects executive functions and verbal fluency in Marathi and Hindi, two major languages in India, with a considerable cognate (e.g., activity is actividad in Spanish) overlap. A total of 174 native Marathi speakers from Pune, India, with varying levels of Hindi proficiency were administered tests of executive functioning and verbal performance in Marathi. A bilingualism index was generated using self-reported Hindi and Marathi proficiency. After controlling for demographic variables, the association between bilingualism and cognitive performance was examined. Degree of bilingualism predicted better performance on the switching (Color Trails-2) and inhibition (Stroop Color-Word) components of executive functioning; but not for the abstraction component (Halstead Category Test). In the verbal domain, bilingualism was more closely associated with noun generation (where the languages share many cognates) than verb generation (which are more disparate across these languages), as predicted. However, contrary to our hypothesis that the bilingualism “disadvantage” would be attenuated on noun generation, bilingualism was associated with an advantage on these measures. These findings suggest distinct patterns of bilingualism effects on cognition for this previously unexamined language pair, and that the rate of cognates may modulate the association between bilingualism and verbal performance on neuropsychological tests. PMID:22206622

Effects of Marathi-Hindi bilingualism on neuropsychological performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamat, Rujvi; Ghate, Manisha; Gollan, Tamar H; Meyer, Rachel; Vaida, Florin; Heaton, Robert K; Letendre, Scott; Franklin, Donald; Alexander, Terry; Grant, Igor; Mehendale, Sanjay; Marcotte, Thomas D

2012-03-01

The present study aimed to examine if bilingualism affects executive functions and verbal fluency in Marathi and Hindi, two major languages in India, with a considerable cognate (e.g., activity is actividad in Spanish) overlap. A total of 174 native Marathi speakers from Pune, India, with varying levels of Hindi proficiency were administered tests of executive functioning and verbal performance in Marathi. A bilingualism index was generated using self-reported Hindi and Marathi proficiency. After controlling for demographic variables, the association between bilingualism and cognitive performance was examined. Degree of bilingualism predicted better performance on the switching (Color Trails-2) and inhibition (Stroop Color-Word) components of executive functioning; but not for the abstraction component (Halstead Category Test). In the verbal domain, bilingualism was more closely associated with noun generation (where the languages share many cognates) than verb generation (which are more disparate across these languages), as predicted. However, contrary to our hypothesis that the bilingualism "disadvantage" would be attenuated on noun generation, bilingualism was associated with an advantage on these measures. These findings suggest distinct patterns of bilingualism effects on cognition for this previously unexamined language pair, and that the rate of cognates may modulate the association between bilingualism and verbal performance on neuropsychological tests.

MODELING PROBABILISTIC CONFLICT OF TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

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D. B. Desyatov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Recently for the study of conflict increasingly used method of mathematical optical modeling. Its importance stems from the fact that experimental research such conflicts rather time-consuming and complex. However, existing approaches to the study of conflict do not take into account the stochastic nature of the systems, suffers from conceptual incompleteness. There is a need to develop models, algorithms and principles, in order to assess the conflict, to choose conflict resolution to ensure that not the worst of conditions. For stochastic technological systems as a utility function, we consider the probability of achieving a given objective. We assume that some system S1 is in conflict with the system S2, (SR2R К SR1R, if q(SR1R,SR2Rprobabilistic conflict of the first kind (А К1 B, if P(A/Bprobabilistic conflict of the second kind (А К2 B, if P(A/B

Bilingualism alters brain functional connectivity between "control" regions and "language" regions: Evidence from bimodal bilinguals.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Le; Abutalebi, Jubin; Zou, Lijuan; Yan, Xin; Liu, Lanfang; Feng, Xiaoxia; Wang, Ruiming; Guo, Taomei; Ding, Guosheng

2015-05-01

Previous neuroimaging studies have revealed that bilingualism induces both structural and functional neuroplasticity in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) and the left caudate nucleus (LCN), both of which are associated with cognitive control. Since these "control" regions should work together with other language regions during language processing, we hypothesized that bilingualism may also alter the functional interaction between the dACC/LCN and language regions. Here we tested this hypothesis by exploring the functional connectivity (FC) in bimodal bilinguals and monolinguals using functional MRI when they either performed a picture naming task with spoken language or were in resting state. We found that for bimodal bilinguals who use spoken and sign languages, the FC of the dACC with regions involved in spoken language (e.g. the left superior temporal gyrus) was stronger in performing the task, but weaker in the resting state as compared to monolinguals. For the LCN, its intrinsic FC with sign language regions including the left inferior temporo-occipital part and right inferior and superior parietal lobules was increased in the bilinguals. These results demonstrate that bilingual experience may alter the brain functional interaction between "control" regions and "language" regions. For different control regions, the FC alters in different ways. The findings also deepen our understanding of the functional roles of the dACC and LCN in language processing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bilingual Language Control and General Purpose Cognitive Control among Individuals with Bilingual Aphasia: Evidence Based on Negative Priming and Flanker Tasks

Science.gov (United States)

Dash, Tanya; Kar, Bhoomika R.

2014-01-01

Background. Bilingualism results in an added advantage with respect to cognitive control. The interaction between bilingual language control and general purpose cognitive control systems can also be understood by studying executive control among individuals with bilingual aphasia. Objectives. The current study examined the subcomponents of cognitive control in bilingual aphasia. A case study approach was used to investigate whether cognitive control and language control are two separate systems and how factors related to bilingualism interact with control processes. Methods. Four individuals with bilingual aphasia performed a language background questionnaire, picture description task, and two experimental tasks (nonlinguistic negative priming task and linguistic and nonlinguistic versions of flanker task). Results. A descriptive approach was used to analyse the data using reaction time and accuracy measures. The cumulative distribution function plots were used to visualize the variations in performance across conditions. The results highlight the distinction between general purpose cognitive control and bilingual language control mechanisms. Conclusion. All participants showed predominant use of the reactive control mechanism to compensate for the limited resources system. Independent yet interactive systems for bilingual language control and general purpose cognitive control were postulated based on the experimental data derived from individuals with bilingual aphasia. PMID:24982591

Designing Science Learning Environments That Support Emerging Bilingual Students to Problematize Electrical Phenomena

Science.gov (United States)

Suarez, Enrique A.

This dissertation investigates how emerging bilingual students make sense of natural phenomena through engaging in certain epistemic practices of science, and the elements of the learning environment that created those opportunities. Specifically, the dissertation focuses on how emerging bilingual students problematized electrical phenomena, like electric flow and electrical resistance, and how the design features of the environment (e.g., sequencing of activities, linguistic practices) may have supported students as they made sense of phenomena. The first study describes how for students presented and evaluated mechanistic models of electric flow, focusing specifically on how students identified and negotiated a disagreement between their explanatory models. The results from this study highlight the complexity of students' disagreements, not only because of the epistemological aspects related to presenting and evaluating knowledge, but also due to interpersonal dynamics and the discomfort associated with disagreeing with another person. The second study focuses on the design features of the learning environment that supported emerging bilingual students' investigations of electrical phenomena. The findings from this study highlight how a carefully designed set of activities, with the appropriate material resources (e.g., experimental tools), could support students to problematize electrical resistance. The third study describes how emerging bilingual students engaged in translanguaging practices and the contextual features of the learning environment that created and hindered opportunities for translanguaging. The findings from this study identify and articulate how emerging bilingual students engaged in translanguaging practices when problematizing electrical resistance, and strengthen the perspective that, in order to be equitable for emerging bilingual students, science learning environments need to act as translanguaging spaces. This dissertation makes three

Bilingual Facebook Users’ Cognitive Writing Processes / Processus cognitifs d’écriture des utilisateurs bilingues de Facebook

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacqueline Riley

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This study seeks to explore the cognitive processes involved as bilinguals wrote English and Spanish Facebook status updates. Three phases of data collection were employed: individual interviews, examination of participants’ Facebook status updates and a group interview. The findings suggested that regardless of the language in which participants wrote, they made a series of decisions as they selected the content, chose the language, formulated the text and typed the status updates. The findings also indicated that for the individuals in this study, higher language proficiencies resulted in increased automaticity when converting thoughts to nonstandard online communications. While participants engaged in many experiences found in Flower and Hayes’ Cognitive Process Model (1981, additional explanation was needed to illustrate how this process varied for online bilingual writers. Cette étude cherche à explorer les processus cognitifs utilisés lorsque des personnes bilingues écrivent des statuts Facebook en anglais et en espagnol. Trois phases de collecte de données ont été utilisées : entrevues individuelles, examen des mises à jour de statut Facebook des participants et entrevue de groupe. Les résultats suggèrent que peu importe la langue de rédaction utilisée par les participants, ceux-ci procédaient à une série de décisions en sélectionnant le contenu, choisissant la langue, formulant le texte et entrant les mises à jour. Les résultats indiquent également que pour les personnes de cette étude, de meilleures compétences linguistiques se traduisaient par une automaticité accrue au moment de convertir les pensées en communications en ligne non standards. Bien que les participants aient pris part à certaines expériences décrites par Flower et Hayes dans leur Cognitive Process Model (1981, de plus amples explications sont requises pour illustrer comment ce processus varie pour les rédacteurs bilingues en ligne.

A probabilistic model for component-based shape synthesis

KAUST Repository

Kalogerakis, Evangelos

2012-07-01

We present an approach to synthesizing shapes from complex domains, by identifying new plausible combinations of components from existing shapes. Our primary contribution is a new generative model of component-based shape structure. The model represents probabilistic relationships between properties of shape components, and relates them to learned underlying causes of structural variability within the domain. These causes are treated as latent variables, leading to a compact representation that can be effectively learned without supervision from a set of compatibly segmented shapes. We evaluate the model on a number of shape datasets with complex structural variability and demonstrate its application to amplification of shape databases and to interactive shape synthesis. © 2012 ACM 0730-0301/2012/08-ART55.

Probabilistic modelling of security of supply in gas networks and evaluation of new infrastructure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Praks, Pavel; Kopustinskas, Vytis; Masera, Marcelo

2015-01-01

The paper presents a probabilistic model to study security of supply in a gas network. The model is based on Monte-Carlo simulations with graph theory, and is implemented in the software tool ProGasNet. The software allows studying gas networks in various aspects including identification of weakest links and nodes, vulnerability analysis, bottleneck analysis, evaluation of new infrastructure etc. In this paper ProGasNet is applied to a benchmark network based on a real EU gas transmission network of several countries with the purpose of evaluating the security of supply effects of new infrastructure, either under construction, recently completed or under planning. The probabilistic model enables quantitative evaluations by comparing the reliability of gas supply in each consuming node of the network. - Highlights: • A Monte-Carlo algorithm for stochastic flow networks is presented. • Network elements can fail according to a given probabilistic model. • Priority supply pattern of gas transmission networks is assumed. • A real-world EU gas transmission network is presented and analyzed. • A risk ratio is used for security of supply quantification of a new infrastructure.

Chiefly Symmetric: Results on the Scalability of Probabilistic Model Checking for Operating-System Code

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcus Völp

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Reliability in terms of functional properties from the safety-liveness spectrum is an indispensable requirement of low-level operating-system (OS code. However, with evermore complex and thus less predictable hardware, quantitative and probabilistic guarantees become more and more important. Probabilistic model checking is one technique to automatically obtain these guarantees. First experiences with the automated quantitative analysis of low-level operating-system code confirm the expectation that the naive probabilistic model checking approach rapidly reaches its limits when increasing the numbers of processes. This paper reports on our work-in-progress to tackle the state explosion problem for low-level OS-code caused by the exponential blow-up of the model size when the number of processes grows. We studied the symmetry reduction approach and carried out our experiments with a simple test-and-test-and-set lock case study as a representative example for a wide range of protocols with natural inter-process dependencies and long-run properties. We quickly see a state-space explosion for scenarios where inter-process dependencies are insignificant. However, once inter-process dependencies dominate the picture models with hundred and more processes can be constructed and analysed.

On synchronous parallel computations with independent probabilistic choice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reif, J.H.

1984-01-01

This paper introduces probabilistic choice to synchronous parallel machine models; in particular parallel RAMs. The power of probabilistic choice in parallel computations is illustrate by parallelizing some known probabilistic sequential algorithms. The authors characterize the computational complexity of time, space, and processor bounded probabilistic parallel RAMs in terms of the computational complexity of probabilistic sequential RAMs. They show that parallelism uniformly speeds up time bounded probabilistic sequential RAM computations by nearly a quadratic factor. They also show that probabilistic choice can be eliminated from parallel computations by introducing nonuniformity

Pulling it all together: The road to lasting bilingualism for children with developmental disabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Kay-Raining Bird, Elizabeth; Trudeau, Natacha; Sutton, Ann

Children with DD must and do become bilingual, but the research reported in this special issue raises questions about equitable access to bilingual opportunities and provision of appropriate supports to ensure optimal bilingual growth in these children. The purpose of the present article was to apply the findings from our international collaboration to inform policy and practice on bilingualism in children with developmental disabilities (DD). To do this, we first overview the research presented in detail in other articles of this special issue: a narrative literature review, a review of site policies and practices related to special education and language education, a qualitative analysis of key informant interviews, and a quantitative analysis of surveys of practitioners. From these overviews emerge a complex set of contextual factors that impact bilingual development in children with DD. We then use the Bioecological Systems model of Bronfenbrenner and Morris (2007) and conceptual maps (C-maps) to examine the particular circumstances of three hypothetical children with DD who are in very different bilingual contexts. In so doing, areas of both positive and negative influence on lasting bilingualism are identified for each child. We end with recommendations for increasing access to and support for bilingualism in children with DD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Survey of Bilingualism in Autism Spectrum Disorders

Science.gov (United States)

Kay-Raining Bird, Elizabeth; Lamond, Erin; Holden, Jeanette

2012-01-01

This survey study investigates issues related to bilingualism and autism. Bilingualism is common around the world but there is little published information to guide professionals and parents in making decisions about bilingualism for children with autism. Participants were 49 parents or guardians of children with autism who were members of a…

Probabilistic inversion for chicken processing lines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooke, Roger M.; Nauta, Maarten; Havelaar, Arie H.; Fels, Ine van der

2006-01-01

We discuss an application of probabilistic inversion techniques to a model of campylobacter transmission in chicken processing lines. Such techniques are indicated when we wish to quantify a model which is new and perhaps unfamiliar to the expert community. In this case there are no measurements for estimating model parameters, and experts are typically unable to give a considered judgment. In such cases, experts are asked to quantify their uncertainty regarding variables which can be predicted by the model. The experts' distributions (after combination) are then pulled back onto the parameter space of the model, a process termed 'probabilistic inversion'. This study illustrates two such techniques, iterative proportional fitting (IPF) and PARmeter fitting for uncertain models (PARFUM). In addition, we illustrate how expert judgement on predicted observable quantities in combination with probabilistic inversion may be used for model validation and/or model criticism

Probabilistic topic modeling for the analysis and classification of genomic sequences

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

Background Studies on genomic sequences for classification and taxonomic identification have a leading role in the biomedical field and in the analysis of biodiversity. These studies are focusing on the so-called barcode genes, representing a well defined region of the whole genome. Recently, alignment-free techniques are gaining more importance because they are able to overcome the drawbacks of sequence alignment techniques. In this paper a new alignment-free method for DNA sequences clustering and classification is proposed. The method is based on k-mers representation and text mining techniques. Methods The presented method is based on Probabilistic Topic Modeling, a statistical technique originally proposed for text documents. Probabilistic topic models are able to find in a document corpus the topics (recurrent themes) characterizing classes of documents. This technique, applied on DNA sequences representing the documents, exploits the frequency of fixed-length k-mers and builds a generative model for a training group of sequences. This generative model, obtained through the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) algorithm, is then used to classify a large set of genomic sequences. Results and conclusions We performed classification of over 7000 16S DNA barcode sequences taken from Ribosomal Database Project (RDP) repository, training probabilistic topic models. The proposed method is compared to the RDP tool and Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification algorithm in a extensive set of trials using both complete sequences and short sequence snippets (from 400 bp to 25 bp). Our method reaches very similar results to RDP classifier and SVM for complete sequences. The most interesting results are obtained when short sequence snippets are considered. In these conditions the proposed method outperforms RDP and SVM with ultra short sequences and it exhibits a smooth decrease of performance, at every taxonomic level, when the sequence length is decreased. PMID:25916734

Predicting inpatient clinical order patterns with probabilistic topic models vs conventional order sets.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jonathan H; Goldstein, Mary K; Asch, Steven M; Mackey, Lester; Altman, Russ B

2017-05-01

Build probabilistic topic model representations of hospital admissions processes and compare the ability of such models to predict clinical order patterns as compared to preconstructed order sets. The authors evaluated the first 24 hours of structured electronic health record data for > 10 K inpatients. Drawing an analogy between structured items (e.g., clinical orders) to words in a text document, the authors performed latent Dirichlet allocation probabilistic topic modeling. These topic models use initial clinical information to predict clinical orders for a separate validation set of > 4 K patients. The authors evaluated these topic model-based predictions vs existing human-authored order sets by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, precision, and recall for subsequent clinical orders. Existing order sets predict clinical orders used within 24 hours with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.81, precision 16%, and recall 35%. This can be improved to 0.90, 24%, and 47% ( P  sets tend to provide nonspecific, process-oriented aid, with usability limitations impairing more precise, patient-focused support. Algorithmic summarization has the potential to breach this usability barrier by automatically inferring patient context, but with potential tradeoffs in interpretability. Probabilistic topic modeling provides an automated approach to detect thematic trends in patient care and generate decision support content. A potential use case finds related clinical orders for decision support. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

Probabilistic Inference: Task Dependency and Individual Differences of Probability Weighting Revealed by Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Boos, Moritz; Seer, Caroline; Lange, Florian; Kopp, Bruno

2016-01-01

Cognitive determinants of probabilistic inference were examined using hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques. A classic urn-ball paradigm served as experimental strategy, involving a factorial two (prior probabilities) by two (likelihoods) design. Five computational models of cognitive processes were compared with the observed behavior. Parameter-free Bayesian posterior probabilities and parameter-free base rate neglect provided inadequate models of probabilistic inference. The introduction of distorted subjective probabilities yielded more robust and generalizable results. A general class of (inverted) S-shaped probability weighting functions had been proposed; however, the possibility of large differences in probability distortions not only across experimental conditions, but also across individuals, seems critical for the model's success. It also seems advantageous to consider individual differences in parameters of probability weighting as being sampled from weakly informative prior distributions of individual parameter values. Thus, the results from hierarchical Bayesian modeling converge with previous results in revealing that probability weighting parameters show considerable task dependency and individual differences. Methodologically, this work exemplifies the usefulness of hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques for cognitive psychology. Theoretically, human probabilistic inference might be best described as the application of individualized strategic policies for Bayesian belief revision.

Towards culturally competent health care: language use of bilingual staff.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, M; Noble, C; Matthews, C; Aguilar, N

1998-01-01

The presence of diverse language skills within health staff provides opportunities to better meet the needs of a multicultural population. A cross-sectional survey of all staff within the South Western Sydney Area Health Service was undertaken to compare language skills with population needs and examine the context of language use. Thirty-one per cent of staff (n = 964) were bilingual or multilingual, with the predominant languages spoken being Tagalog (Filipino), Cantonese, Hindi, Spanish, Vietnamese and Italian. Thirty-seven per cent of bilingual staff used their language skills at least weekly, predominantly in situations of simple conversation and giving directions. Bilingual staff are a valuable resource for the organisation and the presence of a similar overall proportion of bilingual and bicultural staff may engender tolerance and adaptability in providing care to a diverse population. However, supply does not directly match community demand. This mismatch will continue unless recruitment is focused towards identified language groups. The high proportion of staff who rarely used their language skills (37%) may be due to lack of opportunity or limited need, and suggests that further research needs to examine service models that locate bilingual workers close to client need. This study takes a crucial first step towards realising equitable and culturally appropriate care utilising the principles of productive diversity.

Bilingualism: Consequences for Mind and Brain

OpenAIRE

Bialystok, Ellen; Craik, Fergus I. M.; Luk, Gigi

2012-01-01

Building on earlier evidence showing a beneficial effect of bilingualism on children’s cognitive development, we review recent studies using both behavioral and neuroimaging methods to examine the effects of bilingualism on cognition in adulthood and explore possible mechanisms for these effects. This research shows that bilingualism has a somewhat muted effect in adulthood but a larger role in older age, protecting against cognitive decline, a concept known as “cognitive reserve”. We discuss...

Unified Probabilistic Models for Face Recognition from a Single Example Image per Person

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Pin Liao; Li Shen

2004-01-01

This paper presents a new technique of unified probabilistic models for face recognition from only one single example image per person. The unified models, trained on an obtained training set with multiple samples per person, are used to recognize facial images from another disjoint database with a single sample per person. Variations between facial images are modeled as two unified probabilistic models: within-class variations and between-class variations. Gaussian Mixture Models are used to approximate the distributions of the two variations and exploit a classifier combination method to improve the performance. Extensive experimental results on the ORL face database and the authors' database (the ICT-JDL database) including totally 1,750facial images of 350 individuals demonstrate that the proposed technique, compared with traditional eigenface method and some well-known traditional algorithms, is a significantly more effective and robust approach for face recognition.

The Effect of Script Similarity on Executive Control in Bilinguals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emily L Coderre

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The need for executive control (EC during bilingual language processing is thought to enhance these abilities, conferring a ‘bilingual advantage’ on EC tasks. Recently, the reliability and robustness of the bilingual advantage has been questioned, with many variables reportedly affecting the size and presence of the bilingual advantage. This study investigates one further variable that may affect bilingual EC abilities: the similarity of a bilingual’s two languages. We hypothesize that bilinguals whose two languages have a larger degree of orthographic overlap will require greater EC to manage their languages compared to bilinguals who use two languages with less overlap. We tested three groups of bilinguals with language pairs ranging from high- to low-similarity (German-English (GE, Polish-English (PE, and Arabic-English (AE, respectively and a group of English monolinguals on a Stroop and Simon task. Two components of the bilingual advantage were investigated: an interference advantage, such that bilinguals have smaller interference effects than monolinguals; and a global RT advantage, such that bilinguals are faster overall than monolinguals. Between bilingual groups, these effects were expected to be modulated by script similarity. AE bilinguals showed the smallest Stroop interference effects, but the longest overall RTs in both tasks. These seemingly contradictory results are explained by the presence of cross-linguistic interference in the Stroop task. We conclude that similar-script bilinguals demonstrated more effective domain-general EC than different-script bilinguals, since high orthographic overlap creates more cross-linguistic activation and increases the daily demands on cognitive control. The role of individual variation is also discussed. These results suggest that script similarity is an important variable to consider in investigations of bilingual executive control abilities.

Metalinguistic Aspects of Bilingual Processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Bialystok, Ellen

2001-01-01

Examines differences in metalinguistic development between monolingual and bilingual children in terms of three subcategories: word awareness, syntactic awareness, and phonological awareness. In each case, some studies have reported advantages for bilingual children, while others have found either no difference between the groups or monolingual…

Competing probabilistic models for catch-effort relationships in wildlife censuses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skalski, J.R.; Robson, D.S.; Matsuzaki, C.L.

1983-01-01

Two probabilistic models are presented for describing the chance that an animal is captured during a wildlife census, as a function of trapping effort. The models in turn are used to propose relationships between sampling intensity and catch-per-unit-effort (C.P.U.E.) that were field tested on small mammal populations. Capture data suggests a model of diminshing C.P.U.E. with increasing levels of trapping intensity. The catch-effort model is used to illustrate optimization procedures in the design of mark-recapture experiments for censusing wild populations. 14 references, 2 tables.

Up-gradient transport in a probabilistic transport model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gavnholt, J.; Juul Rasmussen, J.; Garcia, O.E.

2005-01-01

The transport of particles or heat against the driving gradient is studied by employing a probabilistic transport model with a characteristic particle step length that depends on the local concentration or heat gradient. When this gradient is larger than a prescribed critical value, the standard....... These results supplement recent works by van Milligen [Phys. Plasmas 11, 3787 (2004)], which applied Levy distributed step sizes in the case of supercritical gradients to obtain the up-gradient transport. (c) 2005 American Institute of Physics....

Presentacio?n. Experiencias y propuestas de educacio?n intercultural bilingu?e en los cantones Cayambe y Pedro Moncayo (Ecuador)

OpenAIRE

Granda Mercha?n, Sebastia?n

2014-01-01

En el 2004, luego de 10 an?os de experiencia en los pa?ramos andinos de la Provincia de Cotopaxi, la Universidad Polite?cnica Salesiana oferta la Carrera de Educacio?n Intercultural Bilingu?e en la ciudad de Cayambe con el objetivo de atender las demandas de formacio?n de los docentes de las escuelas y colegios de la Jurisdiccio?n de Educacio?n Intercultural Bilingu?e de la zona. Para ese entonces, habi?an transcurrido ya 15 an?os desde que se institucionalizo? la Educacio?n Intercultural Bil...

Probabilistic Inference in General Graphical Models through Sampling in Stochastic Networks of Spiking Neurons

Science.gov (United States)

Pecevski, Dejan; Buesing, Lars; Maass, Wolfgang

2011-01-01

An important open problem of computational neuroscience is the generic organization of computations in networks of neurons in the brain. We show here through rigorous theoretical analysis that inherent stochastic features of spiking neurons, in combination with simple nonlinear computational operations in specific network motifs and dendritic arbors, enable networks of spiking neurons to carry out probabilistic inference through sampling in general graphical models. In particular, it enables them to carry out probabilistic inference in Bayesian networks with converging arrows (“explaining away”) and with undirected loops, that occur in many real-world tasks. Ubiquitous stochastic features of networks of spiking neurons, such as trial-to-trial variability and spontaneous activity, are necessary ingredients of the underlying computational organization. We demonstrate through computer simulations that this approach can be scaled up to neural emulations of probabilistic inference in fairly large graphical models, yielding some of the most complex computations that have been carried out so far in networks of spiking neurons. PMID:22219717

Probabilistic inference in general graphical models through sampling in stochastic networks of spiking neurons.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dejan Pecevski

2011-12-01

Full Text Available An important open problem of computational neuroscience is the generic organization of computations in networks of neurons in the brain. We show here through rigorous theoretical analysis that inherent stochastic features of spiking neurons, in combination with simple nonlinear computational operations in specific network motifs and dendritic arbors, enable networks of spiking neurons to carry out probabilistic inference through sampling in general graphical models. In particular, it enables them to carry out probabilistic inference in Bayesian networks with converging arrows ("explaining away" and with undirected loops, that occur in many real-world tasks. Ubiquitous stochastic features of networks of spiking neurons, such as trial-to-trial variability and spontaneous activity, are necessary ingredients of the underlying computational organization. We demonstrate through computer simulations that this approach can be scaled up to neural emulations of probabilistic inference in fairly large graphical models, yielding some of the most complex computations that have been carried out so far in networks of spiking neurons.

Probabilistic inference in general graphical models through sampling in stochastic networks of spiking neurons.

Science.gov (United States)

Pecevski, Dejan; Buesing, Lars; Maass, Wolfgang

2011-12-01

An important open problem of computational neuroscience is the generic organization of computations in networks of neurons in the brain. We show here through rigorous theoretical analysis that inherent stochastic features of spiking neurons, in combination with simple nonlinear computational operations in specific network motifs and dendritic arbors, enable networks of spiking neurons to carry out probabilistic inference through sampling in general graphical models. In particular, it enables them to carry out probabilistic inference in Bayesian networks with converging arrows ("explaining away") and with undirected loops, that occur in many real-world tasks. Ubiquitous stochastic features of networks of spiking neurons, such as trial-to-trial variability and spontaneous activity, are necessary ingredients of the underlying computational organization. We demonstrate through computer simulations that this approach can be scaled up to neural emulations of probabilistic inference in fairly large graphical models, yielding some of the most complex computations that have been carried out so far in networks of spiking neurons.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Program

Science.gov (United States)

Pai, Shantaram S.; Chamis, Christos C.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Stefko, George L.; Riha, David S.; Thacker, Ben H.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Mital, Subodh K.

2010-01-01

NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is a general-purpose, probabilistic analysis program that computes probability of failure and probabilistic sensitivity measures of engineered systems. Because NASA/NESSUS uses highly computationally efficient and accurate analysis techniques, probabilistic solutions can be obtained even for extremely large and complex models. Once the probabilistic response is quantified, the results can be used to support risk-informed decisions regarding reliability for safety-critical and one-of-a-kind systems, as well as for maintaining a level of quality while reducing manufacturing costs for larger-quantity products. NASA/NESSUS has been successfully applied to a diverse range of problems in aerospace, gas turbine engines, biomechanics, pipelines, defense, weaponry, and infrastructure. This program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general-purpose structural analysis and lifting methods to compute the probabilistic response and reliability of engineered structures. Uncertainties in load, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include non-linear finite-element methods, heat-transfer analysis, polymer/ceramic matrix composite analysis, monolithic (conventional metallic) materials life-prediction methodologies, boundary element methods, and user-written subroutines. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is structured in a modular format with 15 elements.

Longitudinal effects of bilingualism on dual-tasking.

Science.gov (United States)

Sörman, Daniel Eriksson; Josefsson, Maria; Marsh, John E; Hansson, Patrik; Ljungberg, Jessica K

2017-01-01

An ongoing debate surrounds whether bilinguals outperform monolinguals in tests of executive processing. The aim of this study was to investigate if there are long-term (10 year) bilingual advantages in executive processing, as indexed by dual-task performance, in a sample that were 40-65 years at baseline. The bilingual (n = 24) and monolingual (n = 24) participants were matched on age, sex, education, fluid intelligence, and study sample. Participants performed free-recall for a 12-item list in three dual-task settings wherein they sorted cards either during encoding, retrieval, or during both encoding and retrieval of the word-list. Free recall without card sorting was used as a reference to compute dual-task costs. The results showed that bilinguals significantly outperformed monolinguals when they performed card-sorting during both encoding and retrieval of the word-list, the condition that presumably placed the highest demands on executive functioning. However, dual-task costs increased over time for bilinguals relative to monolinguals, a finding that is possibly influenced by retirement age and limited use of second language in the bilingual group.

Probabilistic modeling of crack networks in thermal fatigue

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malesys, N.

2007-11-01

Thermal superficial crack networks have been detected in mixing zone of cooling system in nuclear power plants. Numerous experimental works have already been led to characterize initiation and propagation of these cracks. The random aspect of initiation led to propose a probabilistic model for the formation and propagation of crack networks in thermal fatigue. In a first part, uniaxial mechanical test were performed on smooth and slightly notched specimens in order to characterize the initiation of multiple cracks, their arrest due to obscuration and the coalescence phenomenon by recovery of amplification stress zones. In a second time, the probabilistic model was established under two assumptions: the continuous cracks initiation on surface, described by a Poisson point process law with threshold, and the shielding phenomenon which prohibits the initiation or the propagation of a crack if this one is in the relaxation stress zone of another existing crack. The crack propagation is assumed to follow a Paris' law based on the computation of stress intensity factors at the top and the bottom of crack. The evolution of multiaxial cracks on the surface can be followed thanks to three quantities: the shielding probability, comparable to a damage variable of the structure, the initiated crack density, representing the total number of cracks per unit surface which can be compared to experimental observations, and the propagating crack density, representing the number per unit surface of active cracks in the network. The crack sizes distribution is also computed by the model allowing an easier comparison with experimental results. (author)

Probabilistic wind power forecasting with online model selection and warped gaussian process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kou, Peng; Liang, Deliang; Gao, Feng; Gao, Lin

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A new online ensemble model for the probabilistic wind power forecasting. • Quantifying the non-Gaussian uncertainties in wind power. • Online model selection that tracks the time-varying characteristic of wind generation. • Dynamically altering the input features. • Recursive update of base models. - Abstract: Based on the online model selection and the warped Gaussian process (WGP), this paper presents an ensemble model for the probabilistic wind power forecasting. This model provides the non-Gaussian predictive distributions, which quantify the non-Gaussian uncertainties associated with wind power. In order to follow the time-varying characteristics of wind generation, multiple time dependent base forecasting models and an online model selection strategy are established, thus adaptively selecting the most probable base model for each prediction. WGP is employed as the base model, which handles the non-Gaussian uncertainties in wind power series. Furthermore, a regime switch strategy is designed to modify the input feature set dynamically, thereby enhancing the adaptiveness of the model. In an online learning framework, the base models should also be time adaptive. To achieve this, a recursive algorithm is introduced, thus permitting the online updating of WGP base models. The proposed model has been tested on the actual data collected from both single and aggregated wind farms

Probabilistic Failure Analysis of Bone Using a Finite Element Model of Mineral-Collagen Composites

OpenAIRE

Dong, X. Neil; Guda, Teja; Millwater, Harry R.; Wang, Xiaodu

2008-01-01

Microdamage accumulation is a major pathway for energy dissipation during the post-yield deformation of bone. In this study, a two-dimensional probabilistic finite element model of a mineral-collagen composite was developed to investigate the influence of the tissue and ultrastructural properties of bone on the evolution of microdamage from an initial defect in tension. The probabilistic failure analyses indicated that the microdamage progression would be along the plane of the initial defect...

Materiales en Marcha Para El Esfuerzo Bilingue--Bicultural (Materials on the March for the Promotion of Bilingualism/Biculturalism), February 1973.

Science.gov (United States)

San Diego City Schools, CA.

This newsletter is intended to promote the cause of bilingual-bicultural education. It contains a poem celebrating the birthday of Abraham Lincoln and articles on "Exploring Modern Bilingual Biology,""New Covers on the ESL Scene,""Bilingual-Bicultural Education: Background and Foreground," and "Field-Testing…

Does simultaneous bilingualism aggravate children's specific language problems?

Science.gov (United States)

Korkman, Marit; Stenroos, Maria; Mickos, Annika; Westman, Martin; Ekholm, Pia; Byring, Roger

2012-09-01

There is little data on whether or not a bilingual upbringing may aggravate specific language problems in children. This study analysed whether there was an interaction of such problems and simultaneous bilingualism. Participants were 5- to 7-year-old children with specific language problems (LANG group, N = 56) or who were typically developing (CONTR group, N = 60). Seventy-three children were Swedish-Finnish bilingual and 43 were Swedish-speaking monolingual. Assessments (in Swedish) included tests of expressive language, comprehension, repetition and verbal memory. Per definition, the LANG group had lower scores than the CONTR group on all language tests. The bilingual group had lower scores than the monolingual group only on a test of body part naming. Importantly, the interaction of group (LANG or CONTR) and bilingualism was not significant on any of the language scores. Simultaneous bilingualism does not aggravate specific language problems but may result in a slower development of vocabulary both in children with and without specific language problems. Considering also advantages, a bilingual upbringing is an option also for children with specific language problems. In assessment, tests of vocabulary may be sensitive to bilingualism, instead tests assessing comprehension, syntax and nonword repetition may provide less biased methods. © 2012 The Author(s)/Acta Paediatrica © 2012 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

Bilingual and Monolingual Children Prefer Native-Accented Speakers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andre L. eSouza

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Adults and young children prefer to affiliate with some individuals rather than others. Studies have shown that monolingual children show in-group biases for individuals who speak their native language without a foreign accent (Kinzler, Dupoux, & Spelke, 2007. Some studies have suggested that bilingual children are less influenced than monolinguals by language variety when attributing personality traits to different speakers (Anisfeld & Lambert, 1964, which could indicate that bilinguals have fewer in-group biases and perhaps greater social flexibility. However, no previous studies have compared monolingual and bilingual children’s reactions to speakers with unfamiliar foreign accents. In the present study, we investigated the social preferences of 5-year-old English and French monolinguals and English-French bilinguals. Contrary to our predictions, both monolingual and bilingual preschoolers preferred to be friends with native-accented speakers over speakers who spoke their dominant language with an unfamiliar foreign accent. This result suggests that both monolingual and bilingual children have strong preferences for in-group members who use a familiar language variety, and that bilingualism does not lead to generalized social flexibility.

Bilingual and monolingual children prefer native-accented speakers.

Science.gov (United States)

Souza, André L; Byers-Heinlein, Krista; Poulin-Dubois, Diane

2013-01-01

Adults and young children prefer to affiliate with some individuals rather than others. Studies have shown that monolingual children show in-group biases for individuals who speak their native language without a foreign accent (Kinzler et al., 2007). Some studies have suggested that bilingual children are less influenced than monolinguals by language variety when attributing personality traits to different speakers (Anisfeld and Lambert, 1964), which could indicate that bilinguals have fewer in-group biases and perhaps greater social flexibility. However, no previous studies have compared monolingual and bilingual children's reactions to speakers with unfamiliar foreign accents. In the present study, we investigated the social preferences of 5-year-old English and French monolinguals and English-French bilinguals. Contrary to our predictions, both monolingual and bilingual preschoolers preferred to be friends with native-accented speakers over speakers who spoke their dominant language with an unfamiliar foreign accent. This result suggests that both monolingual and bilingual children have strong preferences for in-group members who use a familiar language variety, and that bilingualism does not lead to generalized social flexibility.

Probabilistic inference: Task dependency and individual differences of probability weighting revealed by hierarchical Bayesian modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moritz eBoos

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Cognitive determinants of probabilistic inference were examined using hierarchical Bayesian modelling techniques. A classic urn-ball paradigm served as experimental strategy, involving a factorial two (prior probabilities by two (likelihoods design. Five computational models of cognitive processes were compared with the observed behaviour. Parameter-free Bayesian posterior probabilities and parameter-free base rate neglect provided inadequate models of probabilistic inference. The introduction of distorted subjective probabilities yielded more robust and generalizable results. A general class of (inverted S-shaped probability weighting functions had been proposed; however, the possibility of large differences in probability distortions not only across experimental conditions, but also across individuals, seems critical for the model’s success. It also seems advantageous to consider individual differences in parameters of probability weighting as being sampled from weakly informative prior distributions of individual parameter values. Thus, the results from hierarchical Bayesian modelling converge with previous results in revealing that probability weighting parameters show considerable task dependency and individual differences. Methodologically, this work exemplifies the usefulness of hierarchical Bayesian modelling techniques for cognitive psychology. Theoretically, human probabilistic inference might be best described as the application of individualized strategic policies for Bayesian belief revision.

How bilingualism shapes the functional architecture of the brain: A study on executive control in early bilinguals and monolinguals.

Science.gov (United States)

Costumero, Víctor; Rodríguez-Pujadas, Aina; Fuentes-Claramonte, Paola; Ávila, César

2015-12-01

The existence of a behavioral advantage of bilinguals over monolinguals during executive tasks is controversial. A new approach to this issue is to investigate the effect of bilingualism on neural control when performing these tasks as a window to understand when behavioral differences are produced. Here, we tested if early bilinguals use more language-related networks than monolinguals while performing a go/no-go task that includes infrequent no-go and go trials. The RTs and accuracy in both groups did not differ. An independent component analyses (ICA) revealed, however, that bilinguals used the left fronto-parietal network and the salience network more than monolinguals while processing go infrequent cues and no-go cues, respectively. It was noteworthy that the modulation of these networks had opposite correlates with performance in bilinguals and monolinguals, which suggests that between-group differences were more qualitative than quantitative. Our results suggest that bilinguals may differently develop the involvement of the executive control networks that comprise the left inferior frontal gyrus during cognitive control tasks than monolinguals. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A logic for inductive probabilistic reasoning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred

2005-01-01

Inductive probabilistic reasoning is understood as the application of inference patterns that use statistical background information to assign (subjective) probabilities to single events. The simplest such inference pattern is direct inference: from '70% of As are Bs" and "a is an A" infer...... that a is a B with probability 0.7. Direct inference is generalized by Jeffrey's rule and the principle of cross-entropy minimization. To adequately formalize inductive probabilistic reasoning is an interesting topic for artificial intelligence, as an autonomous system acting in a complex environment may have...... to base its actions on a probabilistic model of its environment, and the probabilities needed to form this model can often be obtained by combining statistical background information with particular observations made, i.e., by inductive probabilistic reasoning. In this paper a formal framework...

The long-term effects of bilingualism on children of immigration: student bilingualism and future earnings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Agirdag, O.

2014-01-01

In this study, we examine the largely neglected long-term effects of bilingualism for students with roots in immigration. Our central research question is whether students' bilingual proficiencies have an impact on their future earnings in the USA. For this purpose, we used two different data-sets,

Neuroanatomical profiles of bilingual children.

Science.gov (United States)

Archila-Suerte, Pilar; Woods, Elizabeth A; Chiarello, Christine; Hernandez, Arturo E

2018-02-26

The goal of the present study was to examine differences in cortical thickness, cortical surface area, and subcortical volume between bilingual children who are highly proficient in two languages (i.e., English and Spanish) and bilingual children who are mainly proficient in one of the languages (i.e., Spanish). All children (N = 49) learned Spanish as a native language (L1) at home and English as a second language (L2) at school. Proficiency of both languages was assessed using the standardized Woodcock Language Proficiency Battery. Five-minute high-resolution anatomical scans were acquired with a 3-Tesla scanner. The degree of discrepancy between L1 and L2 proficiency was used to classify the children into two groups: children with balanced proficiency and children with unbalanced proficiency. The groups were comparable on language history, parental education, and other variables except English proficiency. Values of cortical thickness and surface area of the transverse STG, IFG-pars opercularis, and MFG, as well as subcortical volume of the caudate and putamen, were extracted from FreeSurfer. Results showed that children with balanced bilingualism had thinner cortices of the left STG, left IFG, left MFG and a larger bilateral putamen, whereas unbalanced bilinguals showed thicker cortices of the same regions and a smaller putamen. Additionally, unbalanced bilinguals with stronger foreign accents in the L2 showed reduced surface areas of the MFG and STS bilaterally. The results suggest that balanced/unbalanced bilingualism is reflected in different neuroanatomical characteristics that arise from biological and/or environmental factors. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Bilingualism does not alter cognitive decline or dementia risk among Spanish-speaking immigrants.

Science.gov (United States)

Zahodne, Laura B; Schofield, Peter W; Farrell, Meagan T; Stern, Yaakov; Manly, Jennifer J

2014-03-01

Clinic-based studies suggest that dementia is diagnosed at older ages in bilinguals compared with monolinguals. The current study sought to test this hypothesis in a large, prospective, community-based study of initially nondemented Hispanic immigrants living in a Spanish-speaking enclave of northern Manhattan. Participants included 1,067 participants in the Washington/Hamilton Heights Inwood Columbia Aging Project (WHICAP) who were tested in Spanish and followed at 18-24 month intervals for up to 23 years. Spanish-English bilingualism was estimated via both self-report and an objective measure of English reading level. Multilevel models for change estimated the independent effects of bilingualism on cognitive decline in 4 domains: episodic memory, language, executive function, and speed. Over the course of the study, 282 participants developed dementia. Cox regression was used to estimate the independent effect of bilingualism on dementia conversion. Covariates included country of origin, gender, education, time spent in the United States, recruitment cohort, and age at enrollment. Independent of the covariates, bilingualism was associated with better memory and executive function at baseline. However, bilingualism was not independently associated with rates of cognitive decline or dementia conversion. Results were similar whether bilingualism was measured via self-report or an objective test of reading level. This study does not support a protective effect of bilingualism on age-related cognitive decline or the development of dementia. In this sample of Hispanic immigrants, bilingualism is related to higher initial scores on cognitive tests and higher educational attainment and may not represent a unique source of cognitive reserve. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Probabilistic modelling of the high-pressure arc cathode spot displacement dynamic

CERN Document Server

Coulombe, S

2003-01-01

A probabilistic modelling approach for the study of the cathode spot displacement dynamic in high-pressure arc systems is developed in an attempt to interpret the observed voltage fluctuations. The general framework of the model allows to define simple, probabilistic displacement rules, the so-called cathode spot dynamic rules, for various possible surface states (un-arced metal, arced, contaminated) and to study the resulting dynamic of the cathode spot displacements over one or several arc passages. The displacements of the type-A cathode spot (macro-spot) in a magnetically rotating arc using concentric electrodes made up of either clean or contaminated metal surfaces is considered. Experimental observations for this system revealed a 1/f sup - sup t sup i sup l sup d sup e sup 1 signature in the frequency power spectrum (FPS) of the arc voltage for anchoring arc conditions on the cathode (e.g. clean metal surface), while it shows a 'white noise' signature for conditions favouring a smooth movement (e.g. ox...

Probabilistic Reversible Automata and Quantum Automata

OpenAIRE

Golovkins, Marats; Kravtsev, Maksim

2002-01-01

To study relationship between quantum finite automata and probabilistic finite automata, we introduce a notion of probabilistic reversible automata (PRA, or doubly stochastic automata). We find that there is a strong relationship between different possible models of PRA and corresponding models of quantum finite automata. We also propose a classification of reversible finite 1-way automata.

Probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage modelling using random forests and Bayesian networks

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai

2015-04-01

Decisions on flood risk management and adaptation are increasingly based on risk analyses. Such analyses are associated with considerable uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention recently, they are hardly applied in flood damage assessments. Most of the damage models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. This presentation will show approaches for probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage modelling on the micro- and meso-scale and discuss their potential and limitations. Reference: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Schröter, K., Kreibich, H., Vogel, K., Riggelsen, C., Scherbaum, F., Merz, B. (2014): How useful are complex flood damage models? - Water Resources Research, 50, 4, p. 3378-3395.

A longitudinal study of memory advantages in bilinguals.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jessica K Ljungberg

Full Text Available Typically, studies of cognitive advantages in bilinguals have been conducted previously by using executive and inhibitory tasks (e.g. Simon task and applying cross-sectional designs. This study longitudinally investigated bilingual advantages on episodic memory recall, verbal letter and categorical fluency during the trajectory of life. Monolingual and bilingual participants (n=178 between 35-70 years at baseline were drawn from the Betula Prospective Cohort Study of aging, memory, and health. Results showed that bilinguals outperformed monolinguals at the first testing session and across time both in episodic memory recall and in letter fluency. No interaction with age was found indicating that the rate of change across ages was similar for bilinguals and monolinguals. As predicted and in line with studies applying cross-sectional designs, no advantages associated with bilingualism were found in the categorical fluency task. The results are discussed in the light of successful aging.

Input and language development in bilingually developing children.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoff, Erika; Core, Cynthia

2013-11-01

Language skills in young bilingual children are highly varied as a result of the variability in their language experiences, making it difficult for speech-language pathologists to differentiate language disorder from language difference in bilingual children. Understanding the sources of variability in bilingual contexts and the resulting variability in children's skills will help improve language assessment practices by speech-language pathologists. In this article, we review literature on bilingual first language development for children under 5 years of age. We describe the rate of development in single and total language growth, we describe effects of quantity of input and quality of input on growth, and we describe effects of family composition on language input and language growth in bilingual children. We provide recommendations for language assessment of young bilingual children and consider implications for optimizing children's dual language development. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

The management of subsurface uncertainty using probabilistic modeling of life cycle production forecasts and cash flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olatunbosun, O. O.

1998-01-01

The subject pertains to the implementation of the full range of subsurface uncertainties in life cycle probabilistic forecasting and its extension to project cash flows using the methodology of probabilities. A new tool has been developed in the probabilistic application of Crystal-Ball which can model reservoir volumetrics, life cycle production forecasts and project cash flows in a single environment. The tool is modular such that the volumetrics and cash flow modules are optional. Production forecasts are often generated by applying a decline equation to single best estimate values of input parameters such as initial potential, decline rate, abandonment rate etc -or sometimes by results of reservoir simulation. This new tool provides a means of implementing the full range of uncertainties and interdependencies of the input parameters into the production forecasts by defining the input parameters as probability density functions, PDFs and performing several iterations to generate an expectation curve forecast. Abandonment rate is implemented in each iteration via a link to an OPEX model. The expectation curve forecast is input into a cash flow model to generate a probabilistic NPV. Base case and sensitivity runs from reservoir simulation can likewise form the basis for a probabilistic production forecast from which a probabilistic cash flow can be generated. A good illustration of the application of this tool is in the modelling of the production forecast for a well that encounters its target reservoirs in OUT/ODT situation and thus has significant uncertainties. The uncertainty in presence and size (if present) of gas cap and dependency between ultimate recovery and initial potential amongst other uncertainties can be easily implemented in the production forecast with this tool. From the expectation curve forecast, a probabilistic NPV can be easily generated. Possible applications of this tool include: i. estimation of range of actual recoverable volumes based

Attitudes to Bilingual Education in Slovenia

Science.gov (United States)

Novak Lukanovic, Sonja; Limon, David

2014-01-01

The two different models of bilingual/multilingual education that have been developed in Slovenia since the 1950s in the regions of Prekmurje (minority language Hungarian) and Slovene Istria (Italian) are the result of international agreements, education and language policies, social and demographic factors. The basic aim in both cases is to help…

Probabilistic delay differential equation modeling of event-related potentials.

Science.gov (United States)

Ostwald, Dirk; Starke, Ludger

2016-08-01

"Dynamic causal models" (DCMs) are a promising approach in the analysis of functional neuroimaging data due to their biophysical interpretability and their consolidation of functional-segregative and functional-integrative propositions. In this theoretical note we are concerned with the DCM framework for electroencephalographically recorded event-related potentials (ERP-DCM). Intuitively, ERP-DCM combines deterministic dynamical neural mass models with dipole-based EEG forward models to describe the event-related scalp potential time-series over the entire electrode space. Since its inception, ERP-DCM has been successfully employed to capture the neural underpinnings of a wide range of neurocognitive phenomena. However, in spite of its empirical popularity, the technical literature on ERP-DCM remains somewhat patchy. A number of previous communications have detailed certain aspects of the approach, but no unified and coherent documentation exists. With this technical note, we aim to close this gap and to increase the technical accessibility of ERP-DCM. Specifically, this note makes the following novel contributions: firstly, we provide a unified and coherent review of the mathematical machinery of the latent and forward models constituting ERP-DCM by formulating the approach as a probabilistic latent delay differential equation model. Secondly, we emphasize the probabilistic nature of the model and its variational Bayesian inversion scheme by explicitly deriving the variational free energy function in terms of both the likelihood expectation and variance parameters. Thirdly, we detail and validate the estimation of the model with a special focus on the explicit form of the variational free energy function and introduce a conventional nonlinear optimization scheme for its maximization. Finally, we identify and discuss a number of computational issues which may be addressed in the future development of the approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Price Forecasting for Day-Ahead and Intraday Markets: Beyond the Statistical Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José R. Andrade

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Forecasting the hourly spot price of day-ahead and intraday markets is particularly challenging in electric power systems characterized by high installed capacity of renewable energy technologies. In particular, periods with low and high price levels are difficult to predict due to a limited number of representative cases in the historical dataset, which leads to forecast bias problems and wide forecast intervals. Moreover, these markets also require the inclusion of multiple explanatory variables, which increases the complexity of the model without guaranteeing a forecasting skill improvement. This paper explores information from daily futures contract trading and forecast of the daily average spot price to correct point and probabilistic forecasting bias. It also shows that an adequate choice of explanatory variables and use of simple models like linear quantile regression can lead to highly accurate spot price point and probabilistic forecasts. In terms of point forecast, the mean absolute error was 3.03 €/MWh for day-ahead market and a maximum value of 2.53 €/MWh was obtained for intraday session 6. The probabilistic forecast results show sharp forecast intervals and deviations from perfect calibration below 7% for all market sessions.

Risk Management Technologies With Logic and Probabilistic Models

CERN Document Server

Solozhentsev, E D

2012-01-01

This book presents intellectual, innovative, information technologies (I3-technologies) based on logical and probabilistic (LP) risk models. The technologies presented here consider such models for structurally complex systems and processes with logical links and with random events in economics and technology.  The volume describes the following components of risk management technologies: LP-calculus; classes of LP-models of risk and efficiency; procedures for different classes; special software for different classes; examples of applications; methods for the estimation of probabilities of events based on expert information. Also described are a variety of training courses in these topics. The classes of risk models treated here are: LP-modeling, LP-classification, LP-efficiency, and LP-forecasting. Particular attention is paid to LP-models of risk of failure to resolve difficult economic and technical problems. Amongst the  discussed  procedures of I3-technologies  are the construction of  LP-models,...

Bilingual experience and executive functioning in young children.

Science.gov (United States)

Carlson, Stephanie M; Meltzoff, Andrew N

2008-03-01

Advanced inhibitory control skills have been found in bilingual speakers as compared to monolingual controls (Bialystok, 1999). We examined whether this effect is generalized to an unstudied language group (Spanish-English bilingual) and multiple measures of executive function by administering a battery of tasks to 50 kindergarten children drawn from three language groups: native bilinguals, monolinguals (English), and English speakers enrolled in second-language immersion kindergarten. Despite having significantly lower verbal scores and parent education/income level, Spanish-English bilingual children's raw scores did not differ from their peers. After statistically controlling for these factors and age, native bilingual children performed significantly better on the executive function battery than both other groups. Importantly, the relative advantage was significant for tasks that appear to call for managing conflicting attentional demands (Conflict tasks); there was no advantage on impulse-control (Delay tasks). These results advance our understanding of both the generalizability and specificity of the compensatory effects of bilingual experience for children's cognitive development.

Age of Bilingual Exposure Is Related to the Contribution of Phonological and Semantic Knowledge to Successful Reading Development

Science.gov (United States)

Jasinska, Kaja K.; Petitto, Laura-Ann

2018-01-01

Bilingual children's reading as a function of age of first bilingual language exposure (AoE) was examined. Bilingual (varied AoE) and monolingual children (N = 421) were compared in their English language and reading abilities (6-10 years) using phonological awareness, semantic knowledge, and reading tasks. Structural equation modeling was applied…

Learning probabilistic models of hydrogen bond stability from molecular dynamics simulation trajectories

KAUST Repository

Chikalov, Igor; Yao, Peggy; Moshkov, Mikhail; Latombe, Jean-Claude

2011-01-01

. The intrinsic strength of an individual H-bond has been studied from an energetic viewpoint, but energy alone may not be a very good predictor.Methods: This paper describes inductive learning methods to train protein-independent probabilistic models of H

The concept of a bilingual dictionary

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tarp, Sven

2005-01-01

The term bilingual dictionary is widely used, not only by librarians and dictionary users en general but also by professional lexicographers dedicated to the theory and practice of dictionary making. For this reason it should be expected that there were a common and well-established definition...... of the concept of a bilingual dictionary. It is evident that most people has an intuitive idea of what is meant by «bilingual dictionary». But science-based lexicographic theory - at least if it wants to be considered as such - must go beyond intuition and furnish precise definitions of the concepts used...... chapters, various definitions will be discussed and related to dictionary practice and, subsequently, the very concept of a bilingual dictionary will be examined in the light of a dictionary typology based upon the modern theory of lexicographic functions....

Building a high-resolution T2-weighted MR-based probabilistic model of tumor occurrence in the prostate.

Science.gov (United States)

Nagarajan, Mahesh B; Raman, Steven S; Lo, Pechin; Lin, Wei-Chan; Khoshnoodi, Pooria; Sayre, James W; Ramakrishna, Bharath; Ahuja, Preeti; Huang, Jiaoti; Margolis, Daniel J A; Lu, David S K; Reiter, Robert E; Goldin, Jonathan G; Brown, Matthew S; Enzmann, Dieter R

2018-02-19

We present a method for generating a T2 MR-based probabilistic model of tumor occurrence in the prostate to guide the selection of anatomical sites for targeted biopsies and serve as a diagnostic tool to aid radiological evaluation of prostate cancer. In our study, the prostate and any radiological findings within were segmented retrospectively on 3D T2-weighted MR images of 266 subjects who underwent radical prostatectomy. Subsequent histopathological analysis determined both the ground truth and the Gleason grade of the tumors. A randomly chosen subset of 19 subjects was used to generate a multi-subject-derived prostate template. Subsequently, a cascading registration algorithm involving both affine and non-rigid B-spline transforms was used to register the prostate of every subject to the template. Corresponding transformation of radiological findings yielded a population-based probabilistic model of tumor occurrence. The quality of our probabilistic model building approach was statistically evaluated by measuring the proportion of correct placements of tumors in the prostate template, i.e., the number of tumors that maintained their anatomical location within the prostate after their transformation into the prostate template space. Probabilistic model built with tumors deemed clinically significant demonstrated a heterogeneous distribution of tumors, with higher likelihood of tumor occurrence at the mid-gland anterior transition zone and the base-to-mid-gland posterior peripheral zones. Of 250 MR lesions analyzed, 248 maintained their original anatomical location with respect to the prostate zones after transformation to the prostate. We present a robust method for generating a probabilistic model of tumor occurrence in the prostate that could aid clinical decision making, such as selection of anatomical sites for MR-guided prostate biopsies.

Bilingualism and Cognition: Informing Research, Pedagogy, and Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, Eugene E.; Nanez, Jose E., Sr.

2011-01-01

In the United States, approximately 7% to 10% of children are raised in bilingual households. Despite inherent advantages to bilingualism, some bilingual children experience a significant lag in academic success relative to other groups. Bridging the fields of cognitive psychology and education, this volume presents research-based knowledge on…

A Probabilistic Model for Diagnosing Misconceptions by a Pattern Classification Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Tatsuoka, Kikumi K.

A probabilistic approach is introduced to classify and diagnose erroneous rules of operation resulting from a variety of misconceptions ("bugs") in a procedural domain of arithmetic. The model is contrasted with the deterministic approach which has commonly been used in the field of artificial intelligence, and the advantage of treating the…

The effects of bilingualism on children's perception of speech sounds

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brasileiro, I.

2009-01-01

The general topic addressed by this dissertation is that of bilingualism, and more specifically, the topic of bilingual acquisition of speech sounds. The central question in this study is the following: does bilingualism affect children’s perceptual development of speech sounds? The term bilingual

Immersive bilingualism reshapes the core of the brain.

Science.gov (United States)

Pliatsikas, Christos; DeLuca, Vincent; Moschopoulou, Elisavet; Saddy, James Douglas

2017-05-01

Bilingualism has been shown to affect the structure of the brain, including cortical regions related to language. Less is known about subcortical structures, such as the basal ganglia, which underlie speech monitoring and language selection, processes that are crucial for bilinguals, as well as other linguistic functions, such as grammatical and phonological acquisition and processing. Simultaneous bilinguals have demonstrated significant reshaping of the basal ganglia and the thalamus compared to monolinguals. However, it is not clear whether these effects are due to learning of the second language (L2) at a very young age or simply due to continuous usage of two languages. Here, we show that bilingualism-induced subcortical effects are directly related to the amount of continuous L2 usage, or L2 immersion. We found significant subcortical reshaping in non-simultaneous (or sequential) bilinguals with extensive immersion in a bilingual environment, closely mirroring the recent findings in simultaneous bilinguals. Importantly, some of these effects were positively correlated to the amount of L2 immersion. Conversely, sequential bilinguals with comparable proficiency and age of acquisition (AoA) but limited immersion did not show similar effects. Our results provide structural evidence to suggestions that L2 acquisition continuously occurs in an immersive environment, and is expressed as dynamic reshaping of the core of the brain. These findings propose that second language learning in the brain is a dynamic procedure which depends on active and continuous L2 usage.

Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons.

Science.gov (United States)

Sironi, Emanuele; Gallidabino, Matteo; Weyermann, Céline; Taroni, Franco

2016-03-01

Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, Y.H.J.; Mosleh, A.

2007-01-01

This is the last in a series of five papers that discuss the Information Decision and Action in Crew (IDAC) context for human reliability analysis (HRA) and example application. The model is developed to probabilistically predict the responses of the control room operating crew in nuclear power plants during an accident, for use in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA). The operator response spectrum includes cognitive, emotional, and physical activities during the course of an accident. This paper describes a dynamic PRA computer simulation program, accident dynamics simulator (ADS), developed in part to implement the IDAC model. This paper also provides a detailed example of implementing a simpler version of IDAC, compared with the IDAC model discussed in the first four papers of this series, to demonstrate the practicality of integrating a detailed cognitive HRA model within a dynamic PRA framework

Age of Bilingual Exposure Is Related to the Contribution of Phonological and Semantic Knowledge to Successful Reading Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Jasińska, Kaja K; Petitto, Laura-Ann

2018-01-01

Bilingual children's reading as a function of age of first bilingual language exposure (AoE) was examined. Bilingual (varied AoE) and monolingual children (N = 421) were compared in their English language and reading abilities (6-10 years) using phonological awareness, semantic knowledge, and reading tasks. Structural equation modeling was applied to determine how bilingual AoE predicts reading outcomes. Early exposed bilinguals outperformed monolinguals on phonological awareness and word reading. Phonology and semantic (vocabulary) knowledge differentially predicted reading depending on the bilingual experience and AoE. Understanding how bilingual experiences impact phonological awareness and semantic knowledge, and in turn, impact reading outcomes is relevant for our understanding of what language and reading skills are best to focus on, and when, to promote optimal reading success. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Early bilingualism, language attainment, and brain development.

Science.gov (United States)

Berken, Jonathan A; Gracco, Vincent L; Klein, Denise

2017-04-01

The brain demonstrates a remarkable capacity to undergo structural and functional change in response to experience throughout the lifespan. Evidence suggests that, in many domains of skill acquisition, the manifestation of this neuroplasticity depends on the age at which learning begins. The fact that most skills are acquired late in childhood or in adulthood has proven to be a limitation in studies aimed at determining the relationship between age of acquisition and brain plasticity. Bilingualism, however, provides an optimal model for discerning differences in how the brain wires when a skill is acquired from birth, when the brain circuitry for language is being constructed, versus later in life, when the pathways subserving the first language are already well developed. This review examines some of the existing knowledge about optimal periods in language development, with particular attention to the attainment of native-like phonology. It focuses on the differences in brain structure and function between simultaneous and sequential bilinguals and the compensatory mechanisms employed when bilingualism is achieved later in life, based on evidence from studies using a variety of neuroimaging modalities, including positron emission tomography (PET), task-based and resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), and structural MRI. The discussion concludes with the presentation of recent neuroimaging studies that explore the concept of nested optimal periods in language development and the different neural paths to language proficiency taken by simultaneous and sequential bilinguals, with extrapolation to general notions of the relationship between age of acquisition and ultimate skill performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Approach to modeling of human performance for purposes of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swain, A.D.

1983-01-01

This paper describes the general approach taken in NUREG/CR-1278 to model human performance in sufficienct detail to permit probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plant operations. To show the basis for the more specific models in the above NUREG, a simplified model of the human component in man-machine systems is presented, the role of performance shaping factors is discussed, and special problems in modeling the cognitive aspect of behavior are described

A Probabilistic Model of the LMAC Protocol for Concurrent Wireless Sensor Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Esparza, Luz Judith R; Zeng, Kebin; Nielsen, Bo Friis

2011-01-01

We present a probabilistic model for the network setup phase of the Lightweight Medium Access Protocol (LMAC) for concurrent Wireless Sensor Networks. In the network setup phase, time slots are allocated to the individual sensors through resolution of successive collisions. The setup phase...

Prospective associations between bilingualism and executive function in Latino children: sustained effects while controlling for biculturalism.

Science.gov (United States)

Riggs, Nathaniel R; Shin, Hee-Sung; Unger, Jennifer B; Spruijt-Metz, Donna; Pentz, Mary Ann

2014-10-01

The study purpose was to test 1-year prospective associations between English-Spanish bilingualism and executive function in 5th to 6th grade students while controlling for biculturalism. Participants included 182 US Latino students (50 % female). Self-report surveys assessed biculturalism, bilingualism, and executive function (i.e., working memory, organizational skills, inhibitory control, and emotional control, as well as a summary executive function score). General linear model regressions demonstrated that bilingualism significantly predicted the summary executive function score as well as working memory such that bilingual proficiency was positively related to executive function. Results are the first to demonstrate (a) prospective associations between bilingualism to executive function while controlling for the potential third variable of biculturalism, and (b) a principal role for working memory in this relationship. Since executive function is associated with a host of health outcomes, one implication of study findings is that bilingualism may have an indirect protective influence on youth development.

A probabilistic model for estimating the waiting time until the simultaneous collapse of two contingencies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnett, C.S.

1991-06-01

The Double Contingency Principle (DCP) is widely applied to criticality safety practice in the United States. Most practitioners base their application of the principle on qualitative, intuitive assessments. The recent trend toward probabilistic safety assessments provides a motive to search for a quantitative, probabilistic foundation for the DCP. A Markov model is tractable and leads to relatively simple results. The model yields estimates of mean time to simultaneous collapse of two contingencies as a function of estimates of mean failure times and mean recovery times of two independent contingencies. The model is a tool that can be used to supplement the qualitative methods now used to assess effectiveness of the DCP. 3 refs., 1 fig

A probabilistic model for estimating the waiting time until the simultaneous collapse of two contingencies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnett, C.S.

1991-01-01

The Double Contingency Principle (DCP) is widely applied to criticality safety practice in the United States. Most practitioners base their application of the principle on qualitative, intuitive assessments. The recent trend toward probabilistic safety assessments provides a motive to search for a quantitative, probabilistic foundation for the DCP. A Markov model is tractable and leads to relatively simple results. The model yields estimates of mean time to simultaneous collapse of two contingencies as a function of estimates of mean failure times and mean recovery times of two independent contingencies. The model is a tool that can be used to supplement the qualitative methods now used to assess effectiveness of the DCP. (Author)

A probabilistic model for estimating the waiting time until the simultaneous collapse of two contingencies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnett, C.S.

1992-01-01

The double contingency principle (DCP) is widely applied to criticality safety practice in the United States. Most practitioners base their application of the principle on qualitative and intuitive assessments. The recent trend toward probabilistic safety assessments provides a motive for a search for a quantitative and probabilistic foundation for the DCP. A Markov model is tractable and leads to relatively simple results. The model yields estimates of mean time to simultaneous collapse of two contingencies, as functions of estimates of mean failure times and mean recovery times of two independent contingencies. The model is a tool that can be used to supplement the qualitative methods now used to assess the effectiveness of the DCP. (Author)

Probabilistic Mu-Calculus

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Mardare, Radu Iulian; Xue, Bingtian

2016-01-01

We introduce a version of the probabilistic µ-calculus (PMC) built on top of a probabilistic modal logic that allows encoding n-ary inequational conditions on transition probabilities. PMC extends previously studied calculi and we prove that, despite its expressiveness, it enjoys a series of good...... metaproperties. Firstly, we prove the decidability of satisfiability checking by establishing the small model property. An algorithm for deciding the satisfiability problem is developed. As a second major result, we provide a complete axiomatization for the alternation-free fragment of PMC. The completeness proof...

Bilingualism as a kind of therapy?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hulk, A.; Unsworth, S.

2010-01-01

In her very interesting Keynote Article, Johanne Paradis gives a clear overview of recent research at the interface of bilingual development and child language disorders, and highlights its theoretical and clinical implications. She raises the challenging question of "whether bilingualism can be

Does Bilingualism Delay the Development of Dementia?

OpenAIRE

Amy L Atkinson

2016-01-01

It has been suggested that bilingualism (where individuals speak two languages) may delay the development of dementia. However, much of the research is inconclusive. Some researchers have reported that bilingualism delays the onset and diagnosis of dementia, whilst other studies have found weak or even detrimental effects. This paper reviews a series of nine empirical studies, published up until March 2016, which investigated whether bilingualism significantly delays the onset of dementia. Th...

A CLOSE LOOK AT BILINGUALISM RESEARCH IN ASIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evynurul Laily Zen

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Asia is a ‘homeland’ for bilingualism research in regards to its diversity. It is considered as a vivid research site where there is significant growth of academic areas of exploration. Yet, there are very few scientific attempts to map bilingualism research in an Asian context so far. Thus, I bring the idea of mapping previous works through this literature study by specifically scrutinizing (a bilingualism research in Southeast Asia, (b bilingualism research in other parts of Asia, and (c lessons to learn as a stepping stone to define the future of Indonesian bilingualism. The general data mapping I have explored includes Southeast Asian countries (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam and other parts of Asia (China, India, Israel, and Kazakhstan. The findings from the 33 previous works can be considered as empirical evidence that I will use to portray the research trends in Asia’s bilingualism. The trends show that 19 (55% works have approached bilingual data from sociolinguistics perspective, whereas the other 14 (45% have framed their analysis under psycholinguistic approach. Based on the methodological concerns from these works, I propose two major areas of exploration: Family Language Policy (FLP and trilingual acquisition. FLP in Indonesian is a promising ground, as it brings together issues in language maintenance and shift that instigate a wider aspect of investigation; these aspects include bilingual language dominance, cross language influence, and so forth. Trilingual acquisition, the situation most Indonesian children are growing with, has a potentially significant impact on education, especially where a language curriculum is carefully planned and implemented. In conclusion, this mapping will hopefully shed a light on how bilingualism has academically been very appealing and will continue to fascinate more researchers.

Novel word retention in bilingual and monolingual speakers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kan, Pui Fong; Sadagopan, Neeraja

2014-01-01

The goal of this research was to examine word retention in bilinguals and monolinguals. Long-term word retention is an essential part of vocabulary learning. Previous studies have documented that bilinguals outperform monolinguals in terms of retrieving newly-exposed words. Yet, little is known about whether or to what extent bilinguals are different from monolinguals in word retention. Participants were 30 English-speaking monolingual adults and 30 bilingual adults who speak Spanish as a home language and learned English as a second language during childhood. In a previous study (Kan et al., 2014), the participants were exposed to the target novel words in English, Spanish, and Cantonese. In this current study, word retention was measured a week after the fast mapping task. No exposures were given during the one-week interval. Results showed that bilinguals and monolinguals retain a similar number of words. However, participants produced more words in English than in either Spanish or Cantonese. Correlation analyses revealed that language knowledge plays a role in the relationships between fast mapping and word retention. Specifically, within- and across-language relationships between bilinguals' fast mapping and word retention were found in Spanish and English, by contrast, within-language relationships between monolinguals' fast mapping and word retention were found in English and across-language relationships between their fast mapping and word retention performance in English and Cantonese. Similarly, bilinguals differed from monolinguals in the relationships among the word retention scores in three languages. Significant correlations were found among bilinguals' retention scores. However, no such correlations were found among monolinguals' retention scores. The overall findings suggest that bilinguals' language experience and language knowledge most likely contribute to how they learn and retain new words.

Influence of Bilinguism on Socio-Cognitive Personality Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. V. Sokolova

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The paper gives an overeview of foreign studies devoted to bilinguism and its influence on socio-cognitive personality development. Experimental research conducted in the recent years has broken the myth of negative influence of childhood bilinguism. Moreover, based on the comparative analysis, the present research shows the advantages of children and adults grown up in the bilingual environment. Their advantages compared with the monolingual peers include the well-developed meta-lingual abilities and executive functions - executive control, attention, planning, concentration, rejection of inessential information - necessary for fulfilling verbal tasks and activity control. The paper emphasizes the influence of bilinguism on cognitive decentration, ability to learn foreign languages and develop higher social sensitivity regarding both verbal and non-verbal communication (i.e. interpretation of mimics, gestures, intonations, and more adequate reaction to communicative behavior of surrounding people.The author concludes that bilinguism stimulates creativity, facilitates divergent thinking necessary for observing a variety of possible solutions and creative ideas development. Bilingual skills broaden children’s mental horizons leaving them more prepared for adult life compared to their monolingual peers. 

Bilingualism provides a neural reserve for aging populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Abutalebi, Jubin; Guidi, Lucia; Borsa, Virginia; Canini, Matteo; Della Rosa, Pasquale A; Parris, Ben A; Weekes, Brendan S

2015-03-01

It has been postulated that bilingualism may act as a cognitive reserve and recent behavioral evidence shows that bilinguals are diagnosed with dementia about 4-5 years later compared to monolinguals. In the present study, we investigated the neural basis of these putative protective effects in a group of aging bilinguals as compared to a matched monolingual control group. For this purpose, participants completed the Erikson Flanker task and their performance was correlated to gray matter (GM) volume in order to investigate if cognitive performance predicts GM volume specifically in areas affected by aging. We performed an ex-Gaussian analysis on the resulting RTs and report that aging bilinguals performed better than aging monolinguals on the Flanker task. Bilingualism was overall associated with increased GM in the ACC. Likewise, aging induced effects upon performance correlated only for monolinguals to decreased gray matter in the DLPFC. Taken together, these neural regions might underlie the benefits of bilingualism and act as a neural reserve that protects against the cognitive decline that occurs during aging. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of bilingualism on statistical word learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Poepsel, Timothy J; Weiss, Daniel J

2016-07-01

Statistical learning is a fundamental component of language acquisition, yet to date, relatively few studies have examined whether these abilities differ in bilinguals. In the present study, we examine this issue by comparing English monolinguals with Chinese-English and English-Spanish bilinguals in a cross-situational statistical learning (CSSL) task. In Experiment 1, we assessed the ability of both monolinguals and bilinguals on a basic CSSL task that contained only one-to-one mappings. In Experiment 2, learners were asked to form both one-to-one and two-to-one mappings, and were tested at three points during familiarization. Overall, monolinguals and bilinguals did not differ in their learning of one-to-one mappings. However, bilinguals more quickly acquired two-to-one mappings, while also exhibiting greater proficiency than monolinguals. We conclude that the fundamental SL mechanism may not be affected by language experience, in accord with previous studies. However, when the input contains greater variability, bilinguals may be more prone to detecting the presence of multiple structures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validation analysis of probabilistic models of dietary exposure to food additives.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilsenan, M B; Thompson, R L; Lambe, J; Gibney, M J

2003-10-01

The validity of a range of simple conceptual models designed specifically for the estimation of food additive intakes using probabilistic analysis was assessed. Modelled intake estimates that fell below traditional conservative point estimates of intake and above 'true' additive intakes (calculated from a reference database at brand level) were considered to be in a valid region. Models were developed for 10 food additives by combining food intake data, the probability of an additive being present in a food group and additive concentration data. Food intake and additive concentration data were entered as raw data or as a lognormal distribution, and the probability of an additive being present was entered based on the per cent brands or the per cent eating occasions within a food group that contained an additive. Since the three model components assumed two possible modes of input, the validity of eight (2(3)) model combinations was assessed. All model inputs were derived from the reference database. An iterative approach was employed in which the validity of individual model components was assessed first, followed by validation of full conceptual models. While the distribution of intake estimates from models fell below conservative intakes, which assume that the additive is present at maximum permitted levels (MPLs) in all foods in which it is permitted, intake estimates were not consistently above 'true' intakes. These analyses indicate the need for more complex models for the estimation of food additive intakes using probabilistic analysis. Such models should incorporate information on market share and/or brand loyalty.

Probabilistic linguistics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bod, R.; Heine, B.; Narrog, H.

2010-01-01

Probabilistic linguistics takes all linguistic evidence as positive evidence and lets statistics decide. It allows for accurate modelling of gradient phenomena in production and perception, and suggests that rule-like behaviour is no more than a side effect of maximizing probability. This chapter

Interference Control In Elderly Bilinguals: Appearances Can Be Misleading.

Science.gov (United States)

Ansaldo, Ana Inés; Ghazi-Saidi, Ladan; Adrover-Roig, Daniel

2015-01-01

Bilingualism has been associated with successful aging. In particular, research on the cognitive advantages of bilingualism suggests that it can enhance control over interference and help delay the onset of dementia signs. However, the evidence on the so-called cognitive advantage is not unanimous; furthermore, little is known about the neural basis of this supposed cognitive advantage in bilingual as opposed to monolingual elderly populations. In this study, elderly bilingual and monolingual participants performed a visuospatial interference control task during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scanning. Response times and accuracy rates were calculated for congruent and incongruent conditions of the Simon task, and the neurofunctional correlates of performance on the Simon task were examined. The results showed equivalent performance on the Simon task across groups but different underlying neural substrates in the two groups. With incongruent trials, monolinguals activated the right middle frontal gyrus, whereas bilinguals relied upon the left inferior parietal lobule. These results show that elderly bilinguals and monolinguals have equivalent interference control abilities, but relay on different neural substrates. Thus, while monolinguals show a classical PASA (posterior-anterior shift in aging) effect, recruiting frontal areas, bilinguals activate visuospatial processing alone and thus do not show this posterior-anterior shift. Moreover, a modulation of frontal activity with task-dynamic control of interference, observed in the elderly bilingual group alone, suggests that elderly bilinguals deal with interference control without recruiting a circuit that is particularly vulnerable to aging.

The effects of bilingual growth on toddlers' executive function.

Science.gov (United States)

Crivello, Cristina; Kuzyk, Olivia; Rodrigues, Monyka; Friend, Margaret; Zesiger, Pascal; Poulin-Dubois, Diane

2016-01-01

The mastery of two languages provides bilingual speakers with cognitive benefits over monolinguals, particularly on cognitive flexibility and selective attention. However, extant research is limited to comparisons between monolinguals and bilinguals at a single point in time. This study investigated whether growth in bilingual proficiency, as shown by an increased number of translation equivalents (TEs) over a 7-month period, improves executive function. We hypothesized that bilingual toddlers with a larger increase of TEs would have more practice in switching across lexical systems, boosting executive function abilities. Expressive vocabulary and TEs were assessed at 24 and 31 months of age. A battery of tasks, including conflict, delay, and working memory tasks, was administered at 31 months. As expected, we observed a task-specific advantage in inhibitory control in bilinguals. More important, within the bilingual group, larger increases in the number of TEs predicted better performance on conflict tasks but not on delay tasks. This unique longitudinal design confirms the relation between executive function and early bilingualism. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Precise Quantitative Analysis of Probabilistic Business Process Model and Notation Workflows

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Herbert, Luke Thomas; Sharp, Robin

2013-01-01

We present a framework for modeling and analysis of real-world business workflows. We present a formalized core subset of the business process modeling and notation (BPMN) and then proceed to extend this language with probabilistic nondeterministic branching and general-purpose reward annotations...... the entire BPMN language, allow for more complex annotations and ultimately to automatically synthesize workflows by composing predefined subprocesses, in order to achieve a configuration that is optimal for parameters of interest....

Bilingualism, dementia, cognitive and neural reserve.

Science.gov (United States)

Perani, Daniela; Abutalebi, Jubin

2015-12-01

We discuss the role of bilingualism as a source of cognitive reserve and we propose the putative neural mechanisms through which lifelong bilingualism leads to a neural reserve that delays the onset of dementia. Recent findings highlight that the use of more than one language affects the human brain in terms of anatomo-structural changes. It is noteworthy that recent evidence from different places and cultures throughout the world points to a significant delay of dementia onset in bilingual/multilingual individuals. This delay has been reported not only for Alzheimer's dementia and its prodromal mild cognitive impairment phase, but also for other dementias such as vascular and fronto-temporal dementia, and was found to be independent of literacy, education and immigrant status. Lifelong bilingualism represents a powerful cognitive reserve delaying the onset of dementia by approximately 4 years. As to the causal mechanism, because speaking more than one language heavily relies upon executive control and attention, brain systems handling these functions are more developed in bilinguals resulting in increases of gray and white matter densities that may help protect from dementia onset. These neurocognitive benefits are even more prominent when second language proficiency and exposure are kept high throughout life.

Propagating Water Quality Analysis Uncertainty Into Resource Management Decisions Through Probabilistic Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Gronewold, A. D.; Wolpert, R. L.; Reckhow, K. H.

2007-12-01

Most probable number (MPN) and colony-forming-unit (CFU) are two estimates of fecal coliform bacteria concentration commonly used as measures of water quality in United States shellfish harvesting waters. The MPN is the maximum likelihood estimate (or MLE) of the true fecal coliform concentration based on counts of non-sterile tubes in serial dilution of a sample aliquot, indicating bacterial metabolic activity. The CFU is the MLE of the true fecal coliform concentration based on the number of bacteria colonies emerging on a growth plate after inoculation from a sample aliquot. Each estimating procedure has intrinsic variability and is subject to additional uncertainty arising from minor variations in experimental protocol. Several versions of each procedure (using different sized aliquots or different numbers of tubes, for example) are in common use, each with its own levels of probabilistic and experimental error and uncertainty. It has been observed empirically that the MPN procedure is more variable than the CFU procedure, and that MPN estimates are somewhat higher on average than CFU estimates, on split samples from the same water bodies. We construct a probabilistic model that provides a clear theoretical explanation for the observed variability in, and discrepancy between, MPN and CFU measurements. We then explore how this variability and uncertainty might propagate into shellfish harvesting area management decisions through a two-phased modeling strategy. First, we apply our probabilistic model in a simulation-based analysis of future water quality standard violation frequencies under alternative land use scenarios, such as those evaluated under guidelines of the total maximum daily load (TMDL) program. Second, we apply our model to water quality data from shellfish harvesting areas which at present are closed (either conditionally or permanently) to shellfishing, to determine if alternative laboratory analysis procedures might have led to different

Guia para padres y maestros de ninos bilingues (A Parents' and Teachers' Guide to Bilingualism). Parents' and Teachers' Guides Number 5.

Science.gov (United States)

Ada, Alma Flor; Baker, Colin

This book provides a practical introduction to questions about bilingualism. It is for parents and teachers who are themselves bilingual, for monolinguals who want to know more, for those with some intuitive understanding of bilingual situations and for those who are starting from the very beginning. The book poses questions that people often ask…

Probabilistic Design and Analysis Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Strack, William C.; Nagpal, Vinod K.

2010-01-01

PRODAF is a software package designed to aid analysts and designers in conducting probabilistic analysis of components and systems. PRODAF can integrate multiple analysis programs to ease the tedious process of conducting a complex analysis process that requires the use of multiple software packages. The work uses a commercial finite element analysis (FEA) program with modules from NESSUS to conduct a probabilistic analysis of a hypothetical turbine blade, disk, and shaft model. PRODAF applies the response surface method, at the component level, and extrapolates the component-level responses to the system level. Hypothetical components of a gas turbine engine are first deterministically modeled using FEA. Variations in selected geometrical dimensions and loading conditions are analyzed to determine the effects of the stress state within each component. Geometric variations include the cord length and height for the blade, inner radius, outer radius, and thickness, which are varied for the disk. Probabilistic analysis is carried out using developing software packages like System Uncertainty Analysis (SUA) and PRODAF. PRODAF was used with a commercial deterministic FEA program in conjunction with modules from the probabilistic analysis program, NESTEM, to perturb loads and geometries to provide a reliability and sensitivity analysis. PRODAF simplified the handling of data among the various programs involved, and will work with many commercial and opensource deterministic programs, probabilistic programs, or modules.

Arbitrage and Hedging in a non probabilistic framework

OpenAIRE

Alvarez, Alexander; Ferrando, Sebastian; Olivares, Pablo

2011-01-01

The paper studies the concepts of hedging and arbitrage in a non probabilistic framework. It provides conditions for non probabilistic arbitrage based on the topological structure of the trajectory space and makes connections with the usual notion of arbitrage. Several examples illustrate the non probabilistic arbitrage as well perfect replication of options under continuous and discontinuous trajectories, the results can then be applied in probabilistic models path by path. The approach is r...

Machine learning, computer vision, and probabilistic models in jet physics

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva; NACHMAN, Ben

2015-01-01

In this talk we present recent developments in the application of machine learning, computer vision, and probabilistic models to the analysis and interpretation of LHC events. First, we will introduce the concept of jet-images and computer vision techniques for jet tagging. Jet images enabled the connection between jet substructure and tagging with the fields of computer vision and image processing for the first time, improving the performance to identify highly boosted W bosons with respect to state-of-the-art methods, and providing a new way to visualize the discriminant features of different classes of jets, adding a new capability to understand the physics within jets and to design more powerful jet tagging methods. Second, we will present Fuzzy jets: a new paradigm for jet clustering using machine learning methods. Fuzzy jets view jet clustering as an unsupervised learning task and incorporate a probabilistic assignment of particles to jets to learn new features of the jet structure. In particular, we wi...

A Case for Multidimensional Bilingual Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Sanchez, Serafin V.; Rodriguez, Billie Jo; Soto-Huerta, Mary Esther; Villarreal, Felicia Castro; Guerra, Norma Susan; Flores, Belinda Bustos

2013-01-01

Current assessment practices in the United States are not able to accurately capture the total linguistic, cognitive, and achievement abilities of bilingual learners. There are psychometric complexities involved when assessing and interpreting test results of bilingual students, which impact the validity of this practice. Further, the compromise…

Performance on Auditory and Visual Tasks of Inhibition in English Monolingual and Spanish-English Bilingual Adults: Do Bilinguals Have a Cognitive Advantage?

Science.gov (United States)

Desjardins, Jamie L.; Fernandez, Francisco

2018-01-01

Purpose: Bilingual individuals have been shown to be more proficient on visual tasks of inhibition compared with their monolingual counterparts. However, the bilingual advantage has not been evidenced in all studies, and very little is known regarding how bilingualism influences inhibitory control in the perception of auditory information. The…

Enhanced music sensitivity in 9-month-old bilingual infants

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, L.; Kager, R.W.J.

This study explores the influence of bilingualism on the cognitive processing of language and music. Specifically, we investigate how infants learning a non-tone language perceive linguistic and musical pitch and how bilingualism affects cross-domain pitch perception. Dutch monolingual and bilingual

Becoming Bilingual: A View Towards Communicative Competence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lilla Musyahda

2003-01-01

Full Text Available The phenomenon of foreign language mastery shall always be the main issue in the pedagogy since it has numerous advantages in human life, especially in terms of economic value. The definition of bilingualism is connected with the speaking of two languages or expression in two languages and it can be used to describe societies or individuals (Lyon, 1995. The way that a bilingual adapts to a certain condition leads to a certain phenomenon, which is quite interesting to analyze. The texture of the bilingual's creativity is essentially the result of the process of translation and transcreation, and insightful approaches to stylistics-its theory and methodology must be take into consideration. When people speak more than one languages, they may have different levels of proficiency in each of the languages, and use them for very different social purposes and in different situations. The languages that a bilingual speaks affect each other in various ways, so much that there is a regular study of what happens when one language comes into contact with another. In educational setting, it is important to know how a bilingual's first language may affect the function of other languages. The paper will discuss the phenomenon of bilingual and the implication towards communicative competence which would consists, minimally, of four areas of knowledge and skills; grammatical competence, sociolinguistic competence, discourse competence and strategic competence.

Becoming Bilingual: A View Towards Communicative Competence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lilla Musyanda

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract: The phenomenon of foreign language mastery shall always be the main issue in the pedagogy since it has numerous advantages in human life, especially in terms of economic value. The definition of bilingualism is connected with the speaking of two languages or expression in two languages and it can be used to describe societies or individuals (Lyon, 1995. The way that a bilingual adapts to a certain condition leads to a certain phenomenon, which is quite interesting to analyze. The texture of the bilingual's creativity is essentially the result of the process of translation and transcreation, and insightful approaches to stylistics-its theory and methodology must be take into consideration. When people speak more than one languages, they may have different levels of proficiency in each of the languages, and use them for very different social purposes and in different situations. The languages that a bilingual speaks affect each other in various ways, so much that there is a regular study of what happens when one language comes into contact with another. In educational setting, it is important to know how a bilingual's first language may affect the function of other languages. The paper will discuss the phenomenon of bilingual and the implication towards communicative competence which would consists, minimally, of four areas of knowledge and skills; grammatical competence, sociolinguistic competence, discourse competence and strategic competence.

Bilingual Language Assessment: Contemporary Versus Recommended Practice in American Schools.

Science.gov (United States)

Arias, Graciela; Friberg, Jennifer

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to identify current practices of school-based speech-language pathologists (SLPs) in the United States for bilingual language assessment and compare them to American Speech-Language-Hearing Association (ASHA) best practice guidelines and mandates of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA, 2004). The study was modeled to replicate portions of Caesar and Kohler's (2007) study and expanded to include a nationally representative sample. A total of 166 respondents completed an electronic survey. Results indicated that the majority of respondents have performed bilingual language assessments. Furthermore, the most frequently used informal and standardized assessments were identified. SLPs identified supports, and barriers to assessment, as well as their perceptions of graduate preparation. The findings of this study demonstrated that although SLPs have become more compliant to ASHA and IDEA guidelines, there is room for improvement in terms of adequate training in bilingual language assessment.

Deliverable D74.2. Probabilistic analysis methods for support structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gintautas, Tomas

2018-01-01

Relevant Description: Report describing the probabilistic analysis for offshore substructures and results attained. This includes comparison with experimental data and with conventional design. Specific targets: 1) Estimate current reliability level of support structures 2) Development of basis...... for probabilistic calculations and evaluation of reliability for offshore support structures (substructures) 3) Development of a probabilistic model for stiffness and strength of soil parameters and for modeling geotechnical load bearing capacity 4) Comparison between probabilistic analysis and deterministic...

Use of probabilistic relational model (PRM) for dependability analysis of complex systems

OpenAIRE

Medina-Oliva , Gabriela; Weber , Philippe; Levrat , Eric; Iung , Benoît

2010-01-01

International audience; This paper proposes a methodology to develop a aided decision-making tool for assessing the dependability and performances (i.e. reliability) of an industrial system. This tool is built on a model based on a new formalism, called the probabilistic relational model (PRM) which is adapted to deal with large and complex systems. The model is formalized from functional, dysfunctional and informational studies of the technical industrial systems. An application of this meth...

Bilingualism and age are continuous variables that influence executive function.

Science.gov (United States)

Incera, Sara; McLennan, Conor T

2018-05-01

We analyzed the effects of bilingualism and age on executive function. We examined these variables along a continuum, as opposed to dichotomizing them. We investigated the impact that bilingualism and age have on two measures of executive control (Stroop and Flanker). The mouse-tracking paradigm allowed us to examine the continuous dynamics of the responses as participants completed each trial. First, we found that the Stroop effect was reduced with younger age and higher levels of bilingualism; however, no Bilingualism by Age interaction emerged. Second, after controlling for baseline, the Flanker effect was not influenced by bilingualism or age. These results support the notion that bilingualism is one way of enhancing some aspects of executive function - specifically those related to the Stroop task - across the adult life span. In sum, different levels of bilingualism, and different ages, result in varying degrees of executive function as measured by the Stroop task.

Semantic Convergence in the Bilingual Lexicon

Science.gov (United States)

Ameel, Eef; Malt, Barbara C.; Storms, Gert; Van Assche, Fons

2009-01-01

Bilinguals' lexical mappings for their two languages have been found to converge toward a common naming pattern. The present paper investigates in more detail how semantic convergence is manifested in bilingual lexical knowledge. We examined how semantic convergence affects the centers and boundaries of lexical categories for common household…

Bilingual Enhancements Have No Socioeconomic Boundaries

Science.gov (United States)

Krizman, Jennifer; Skoe, Erika; Kraus, Nina

2016-01-01

To understand how socioeconomic status (SES) and bilingualism simultaneously operate on cognitive and sensory function, we examined executive control, language skills, and neural processing of sound in adolescents who differed in language experience (i.e. English monolingual or Spanish-English bilingual) and level of maternal education (a proxy…

Probabilistic Modeling of Intracranial Pressure Effects on Optic Nerve Biomechanics

Science.gov (United States)

Ethier, C. R.; Feola, Andrew J.; Raykin, Julia; Myers, Jerry G.; Nelson, Emily S.; Samuels, Brian C.

2016-01-01

Altered intracranial pressure (ICP) is involved/implicated in several ocular conditions: papilledema, glaucoma and Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome. The biomechanical effects of altered ICP on optic nerve head (ONH) tissues in these conditions are uncertain but likely important. We have quantified ICP-induced deformations of ONH tissues, using finite element (FE) and probabilistic modeling (Latin Hypercube Simulations (LHS)) to consider a range of tissue properties and relevant pressures.

Some thoughts on the future of probabilistic structural design of nuclear components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stancampiano, P.A.

1978-01-01

This paper presents some views on the future role of probabilistic methods in the structural design of nuclear components. The existing deterministic design approach is discussed and compared to the probabilistic approach. Some of the objections to both deterministic and probabilistic design are listed. Extensive research and development activities are required to mature the probabilistic approach suficiently to make it cost-effective and competitive with current deterministic design practices. The required research activities deal with probabilistic methods development, more realistic casual failure mode models development, and statistical data models development. A quasi-probabilistic structural design approach is recommended which accounts for the random error in the design models. (Auth.)

Bilingual education as a way to decolonization

OpenAIRE

Cocco, Elisa; Prip, Kasper; Arenas, Marisol; Todorova, Natalyia; Pedersen, Stefan

2014-01-01

This paper concerns the link between a post-colonial nation and a bilingual education and more specifically how bilingual education methods can be used as a means towards decolonization and a decolonized identity . The scope of our work is purposely focused on Peru in order to solve our problem formulation, which sounds: ‘‘Is it possible to create a conscious decolonized identity through a bilingual education program?’’ Comparative analyses of different relevant non-fiction literature as well...

Probabilistic Modeling of Aircraft Trajectories for Dynamic Separation Volumes

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

With a proliferation of new and unconventional vehicles and operations expected in the future, the ab initio airspace design will require new approaches to trajectory prediction for separation assurance and other air traffic management functions. This paper presents an approach to probabilistic modeling of the trajectory of an aircraft when its intent is unknown. The approach uses a set of feature functions to constrain a maximum entropy probability distribution based on a set of observed aircraft trajectories. This model can be used to sample new aircraft trajectories to form an ensemble reflecting the variability in an aircraft's intent. The model learning process ensures that the variability in this ensemble reflects the behavior observed in the original data set. Computational examples are presented.

Assessment of bilingual children with inattention, over activity and impulsivity –Challenges and solutions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meral Özerk

2011-07-01

Full Text Available ADHD is one of the widespread neurological disorders among children. While a substantial amount of research have addressed the issues related to assessment practices and diagnosis criteria among majority language speaking children, ADHD among bilingual children or linguistic minority children has not yet been addressed and discussed so much in the research circles. The percentage of bilingual children with immigrant background in main stream schools in many countries is quite high. Despite this global demographic tendency, underdiagnostisation and assessment of bilingual children with inattention, over activity and impulsivity are being considered to be a psychiatric, psychological and educational challenge. In this paper we address several critical aspects of the assessment practices and medical diagnosis of bilingual children with immigrant background based on a research project. The paper presents also some solutions as an alternative to one-sided intelligence-test based approaches. We stress the importance of multidimensional, multisource and bilingual assessment model for identifying the knowledge-related and language-related elements of the academic learning gap that these children usually experience prior to and during the assessment period.

Probabilistic forecasting of the solar irradiance with recursive ARMA and GARCH models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

David, M.; Ramahatana, F.; Trombe, Pierre-Julien

2016-01-01

Forecasting of the solar irradiance is a key feature in order to increase the penetration rate of solar energy into the energy grids. Indeed, the anticipation of the fluctuations of the solar renewables allows a better management of the production means of electricity and a better operation...... sky index show some similarities with that of financial time series. The aim of this paper is to assess the performances of a commonly used combination of two linear models (ARMA and GARCH) in econometrics in order to provide probabilistic forecasts of solar irradiance. In addition, a recursive...... regarding the statistical distribution of the error, the reliability of the probabilistic forecasts stands in the same order of magnitude as other works done in the field of solar forecasting....

Cognitive advantages of bilingual children in different sociolinguistic contexts

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Blom, E.; Boerma, T.; Bosma, E.; Cornips, L.M.E.A.; Everaert, E.

2017-01-01

Many studies have shown that bilingual children outperform monolinguals on tasks testing executive functioning, but other studies have not revealed any effect of bilingualism. In this study we compared three groups of bilingual children in the Netherlands, aged 6–7 years, with a monolingual control

Working with Bilingual Learners: An Introduction

Science.gov (United States)

Willenberg, Ingrid

2015-01-01

This article seeks to provide a theoretical overview of bilingualism and discuss the key concepts and theories that inform classroom pedagogy with bilingual learners. Although some specific classroom strategies are introduced, the primary purpose is not to offer strategies, but rather to offer guiding principles based on theory and research to…

Comparison of Microscopic Drivers' Probabilistic Lane-changing Models With Real Traffic Microscopic Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seyyed Mohammad Sadat Hoseini

2011-07-01

Full Text Available The difficulties of microscopic-level simulation models to accurately reproduce real traffic phenomena stem not only from the complexity of calibration and validation operations, but also from the structural inadequacies of the sub-models themselves. Both of these drawbacks originate from the scant information available on real phenomena because of the difficulty in gathering accurate field data. This paper studies the traffic behaviour of individual drivers utilizing vehicle trajectory data extracted from digital images collected from freeways in Iran. These data are used to evaluate the four proposed microscopic traffic models. One of the models is based on the traffic regulations in Iran and the three others are probabilistic models that use a decision factor for calculating the probability of choosing a position on the freeway by a driver. The decision factors for three probabilistic models are increasing speed, decreasing risk of collision, and increasing speed combined with decreasing risk of collision. The models are simulated by a cellular automata simulator and compared with the real data. It is shown that the model based on driving regulations is not valid, but that other models appear useful for predicting the driver’s behaviour on freeway segments in Iran during noncongested conditions.

Probabilistic Mobility Models for Mobile and Wireless Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Song, Lei; Godskesen, Jens Christian

2010-01-01

In this paper we present a probabilistic broadcast calculus for mobile and wireless networks whose connections are unreliable. In our calculus broadcasted messages can be lost with a certain probability, and due to mobility the connection probabilities may change. If a network broadcasts a message...... from a location it will evolve to a network distribution depending on whether nodes at other locations receive the message or not. Mobility of locations is not arbitrary but guarded by a probabilistic mobility function (PMF) and we also define the notion of a weak bisimulation given a PMF...

Probabilistic brains: knowns and unknowns

Science.gov (United States)

Pouget, Alexandre; Beck, Jeffrey M; Ma, Wei Ji; Latham, Peter E

2015-01-01

There is strong behavioral and physiological evidence that the brain both represents probability distributions and performs probabilistic inference. Computational neuroscientists have started to shed light on how these probabilistic representations and computations might be implemented in neural circuits. One particularly appealing aspect of these theories is their generality: they can be used to model a wide range of tasks, from sensory processing to high-level cognition. To date, however, these theories have only been applied to very simple tasks. Here we discuss the challenges that will emerge as researchers start focusing their efforts on real-life computations, with a focus on probabilistic learning, structural learning and approximate inference. PMID:23955561

Lifelong bilingualism maintains neural efficiency for cognitive control in aging.

Science.gov (United States)

Gold, Brian T; Kim, Chobok; Johnson, Nathan F; Kryscio, Richard J; Smith, Charles D

2013-01-09

Recent behavioral data have shown that lifelong bilingualism can maintain youthful cognitive control abilities in aging. Here, we provide the first direct evidence of a neural basis for the bilingual cognitive control boost in aging. Two experiments were conducted, using a perceptual task-switching paradigm, including a total of 110 participants. In Experiment 1, older adult bilinguals showed better perceptual switching performance than their monolingual peers. In Experiment 2, younger and older adult monolinguals and bilinguals completed the same perceptual task-switching experiment while functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) was performed. Typical age-related performance reductions and fMRI activation increases were observed. However, like younger adults, bilingual older adults outperformed their monolingual peers while displaying decreased activation in left lateral frontal cortex and cingulate cortex. Critically, this attenuation of age-related over-recruitment associated with bilingualism was directly correlated with better task-switching performance. In addition, the lower blood oxygenation level-dependent response in frontal regions accounted for 82% of the variance in the bilingual task-switching reaction time advantage. These results suggest that lifelong bilingualism offsets age-related declines in the neural efficiency for cognitive control processes.

Probabilistic Design of Wind Turbines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Toft, H.S.

2010-01-01

Probabilistic design of wind turbines requires definition of the structural elements to be included in the probabilistic basis: e.g., blades, tower, foundation; identification of important failure modes; careful stochastic modeling of the uncertain parameters; recommendations for target reliability....... It is described how uncertainties in wind turbine design related to computational models, statistical data from test specimens, results from a few full-scale tests and from prototype wind turbines can be accounted for using the Maximum Likelihood Method and a Bayesian approach. Assessment of the optimal...... reliability level by cost-benefit optimization is illustrated by an offshore wind turbine example. Uncertainty modeling is illustrated by an example where physical, statistical and model uncertainties are estimated....

Creating a Translanguaging Space for High School Emergent Bilinguals

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shuzhan; Luo, Wenjing

2017-01-01

Translanguaging is a rapidly developing concept in bilingual education. Working from the theoretical background of dynamic bilingualism, a translanguaging lens posits that bilingual learners draw on a holistic linguistic repertoire to make sense of the world and to communicate effectively with texts. What is relatively underdeveloped is the…

Cognitive Advantages and Disadvantages in Early and Late Bilinguals

Science.gov (United States)

Pelham, Sabra D.; Abrams, Lise

2014-01-01

Previous research has documented advantages and disadvantages of early bilinguals, defined as learning a 2nd language by school age and using both languages since that time. Relative to monolinguals, early bilinguals manifest deficits in lexical access but benefits in executive function. We investigated whether becoming bilingual "after"…

Language, Culture and Identity: A Sociolinguistic Study of Bilingual ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper explores the dynamics of bilingual speech in the Lagos Island speech community in Central Lagos. Against the background of the unique social motivations for bilingual behaviour in this cosmopolitan community, this study explores the various sociolinguistic acts utilized by the Yoruba-English bilinguals in the ...

Dependence in probabilistic modeling Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferson, Scott [Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY (United States); Nelsen, Roger B. [Lewis & Clark College, Portland OR (United States); Hajagos, Janos [Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY (United States); Berleant, Daniel J. [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Zhang, Jianzhong [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Tucker, W. Troy [Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY (United States); Ginzburg, Lev R. [Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY (United States); Oberkampf, William L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-05-01

This report summarizes methods to incorporate information (or lack of information) about inter-variable dependence into risk assessments that use Dempster-Shafer theory or probability bounds analysis to address epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. The report reviews techniques for simulating correlated variates for a given correlation measure and dependence model, computation of bounds on distribution functions under a specified dependence model, formulation of parametric and empirical dependence models, and bounding approaches that can be used when information about the intervariable dependence is incomplete. The report also reviews several of the most pervasive and dangerous myths among risk analysts about dependence in probabilistic models.

Language preference and development of dementia among bilingual individuals.

Science.gov (United States)

McMurtray, Aaron; Saito, Erin; Nakamoto, Beau

2009-10-01

In bilingual individuals, regression to a primary language may be associated with development of cognitive impairment and increased risk for development of dementia. This report describes two bilingual patients who presented with early symptoms of dementia after regression to their primary language. The results of this study may help clinicians identify aging bilingual patients who are beginning to develop cognitive impairment or dementia and suggest that further studies on the long term cognitive effects of bilingualism and interactions with the aging process are indicated.

RELATION OF DEAF PERSONS TOWARDS BILINGUALISM AS COMMUNICATION MODE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naim Salkić

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Bilingualism of a deaf child implies concurrent cognition and usage of sign language, as community language and oral-voice language as language of greater community in which deaf persons live. Today, most authors consider that deaf persons should know both of these languages and that deaf persons need to be educated in both languages, because of their general communication and complete psycho-social development. Through research on sample of 80 deaf examinees, we affirmed the kind of relation that deaf persons have towards bilingualism, bilingual way of education and communication. The research results have shown that bilingualism and bilingual way of education and communication is acceptable to deaf persons and that there is no statistically significant difference between the sub-samples of examinees.

Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based human exposure modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER meas...

An Interaction Between the Effects of Bilingualism and Cross-linguistic Similarity in Balanced and Unbalanced Bilingual Adults' L2 Mandarin Word-Reading Production.

Science.gov (United States)

Hsu, Hsiu-Ling

2017-08-01

We conducted three experiments investigating in more detail the interaction between the two effects of bilingualism and L1-L2 similarity in the speech performance of balanced and unbalanced bilinguals. In Experiment 1, L1 Mandarin monolinguals and two groups of Hakka and Minnan balanced bilinguals (Hakka: more similar to Mandarin) performed a non-contextual single-character reading task in Mandarin, which required more inhibitory control. The two bilingual groups outperformed the monolinguals, regardless of their L1 background. However, the bilingual advantage was not found in a contextual multi-word task (Experiment 2), but instead the effect of cross-linguistic similarity emerged. Furthermore, in Experiment 3, the Hakka unbalanced bilinguals showed an advantage in the non-contextual task, while their Minnan counterparts did not, and the impact of L1-L2 similarity emerged in both tasks. These results unveiled the way the two effects dynamically interplayed depending on the task contexts and the relative degrees of using L1 and L2.

Training Bilingual Educators at a PBI

Science.gov (United States)

Montes, Amanda Lira Gordenstein; Valenciano, Cynthia Kay; Fernandez, Miguel

2018-01-01

While Bilingual Education has traditionally been associated with linguistic diversity, the rise of the number of African-American teacher candidates in a Bilingual Education program at a mid-west Predominantly Black Institution (PBI) is causing the authors to reevaluate the input of this program's curriculum and the output of the candidates'…

Contribution of Bilingualism in Language Teaching

Science.gov (United States)

Sipra, Muhammad Aslam

2013-01-01

This study is an investigation into the contribution of the use of bilingualism as an aid in learning/teaching English as a foreign language and bilingualism in EFL classroom does not reduce students' communicative abilities but in effect can assist in teaching and learning process. The study employed a qualitative, interpretive research design…

Probabilistic risk models for multiple disturbances: an example of forest insects and wildfires

Science.gov (United States)

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Alan A. Ager; Jane L. Hayes

2010-01-01

Building probabilistic risk models for highly random forest disturbances like wildfire and forest insect outbreaks is a challenging. Modeling the interactions among natural disturbances is even more difficult. In the case of wildfire and forest insects, we looked at the probability of a large fire given an insect outbreak and also the incidence of insect outbreaks...

On the facilitatory effects of cognate words in bilingual speech production.

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Albert; Santesteban, Mikel; Caño, Agnès

2005-07-01

There is a growing body of evidence showing that a word's cognate status is an important dimension affecting the naming performance of bilingual speakers. In a recent article, Kohnert extended this observation to the naming performance of an aphasic bilingual (DJ). DJ named pictures with cognate names more accurately than pictures with non-cognate names. Furthermore, having named the pictures in Spanish helped the subsequent retrieval (with a delay of one week between the two tests) of the same pictures' names in English, but only for pictures with cognate names. That is, there was a language transfer but only for those translation words that were phonologically similar. In this article we first evaluate the conclusions drawn from these results by Kohnert, and second we discuss the theoretical implications of the facilitatory effects of cognate words for models of speech production in bilingual speakers.

A Probabilistic Genome-Wide Gene Reading Frame Sequence Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Have, Christian Theil; Mørk, Søren

We introduce a new type of probabilistic sequence model, that model the sequential composition of reading frames of genes in a genome. Our approach extends gene finders with a model of the sequential composition of genes at the genome-level -- effectively producing a sequential genome annotation...... as output. The model can be used to obtain the most probable genome annotation based on a combination of i: a gene finder score of each gene candidate and ii: the sequence of the reading frames of gene candidates through a genome. The model --- as well as a higher order variant --- is developed and tested...... and are evaluated by the effect on prediction performance. Since bacterial gene finding to a large extent is a solved problem it forms an ideal proving ground for evaluating the explicit modeling of larger scale gene sequence composition of genomes. We conclude that the sequential composition of gene reading frames...

Cognitive control, cognitive reserve, and memory in the aging bilingual brain

OpenAIRE

Grant, Angela; Dennis, Nancy A.; Li, Ping

2014-01-01

In recent years bilingualism has been linked to both advantages in executive control and positive impacts on aging. Such positive cognitive effects of bilingualism have been attributed to the increased need for language control during bilingual processing and increased cognitive reserve, respectively. However, a mechanistic explanation of how bilingual experience contributes to cognitive reserve is still lacking. The current paper proposes a new focus on bilingual memory as an avenue to explo...

How age of bilingual exposure can change the neural systems for language in the developing brain: a functional near infrared spectroscopy investigation of syntactic processing in monolingual and bilingual children.

Science.gov (United States)

Jasinska, K K; Petitto, L A

2013-10-01

Is the developing bilingual brain fundamentally similar to the monolingual brain (e.g., neural resources supporting language and cognition)? Or, does early-life bilingual language experience change the brain? If so, how does age of first bilingual exposure impact neural activation for language? We compared how typically-developing bilingual and monolingual children (ages 7-10) and adults recruit brain areas during sentence processing using functional Near Infrared Spectroscopy (fNIRS) brain imaging. Bilingual participants included early-exposed (bilingual exposure from birth) and later-exposed individuals (bilingual exposure between ages 4-6). Both bilingual children and adults showed greater neural activation in left-hemisphere classic language areas, and additionally, right-hemisphere homologues (Right Superior Temporal Gyrus, Right Inferior Frontal Gyrus). However, important differences were observed between early-exposed and later-exposed bilinguals in their earliest-exposed language. Early bilingual exposure imparts fundamental changes to classic language areas instead of alterations to brain regions governing higher cognitive executive functions. However, age of first bilingual exposure does matter. Later-exposed bilinguals showed greater recruitment of the prefrontal cortex relative to early-exposed bilinguals and monolinguals. The findings provide fascinating insight into the neural resources that facilitate bilingual language use and are discussed in terms of how early-life language experiences can modify the neural systems underlying human language processing. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Bilingual First Language Acquisition: Exploring the Limits of the Language Faculty.

Science.gov (United States)

Genesee, Fred

2001-01-01

Reviews current research in three domains of bilingual acquisition: pragmatic features of bilingual code mixing, grammatical constraints on child bilingual code mixing, and bilingual syntactic development. Examines implications from these domains for the understanding of the limits of the mental faculty to acquire language. (Author/VWL)

Applying Probabilistic Decision Models to Clinical Trial Design

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Wade P; Phillips, Mark H

2018-01-01

Clinical trial design most often focuses on a single or several related outcomes with corresponding calculations of statistical power. We consider a clinical trial to be a decision problem, often with competing outcomes. Using a current controversy in the treatment of HPV-positive head and neck cancer, we apply several different probabilistic methods to help define the range of outcomes given different possible trial designs. Our model incorporates the uncertainties in the disease process and treatment response and the inhomogeneities in the patient population. Instead of expected utility, we have used a Markov model to calculate quality adjusted life expectancy as a maximization objective. Monte Carlo simulations over realistic ranges of parameters are used to explore different trial scenarios given the possible ranges of parameters. This modeling approach can be used to better inform the initial trial design so that it will more likely achieve clinical relevance.

Bisimulations meet PCTL equivalences for probabilistic automata

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Song, Lei; Zhang, Lijun; Godskesen, Jens Chr.

2013-01-01

Probabilistic automata (PAs) have been successfully applied in formal verification of concurrent and stochastic systems. Efficient model checking algorithms have been studied, where the most often used logics for expressing properties are based on probabilistic computation tree logic (PCTL) and its...

Comparison of Control Approaches in Genetic Regulatory Networks by Using Stochastic Master Equation Models, Probabilistic Boolean Network Models and Differential Equation Models and Estimated Error Analyzes

Science.gov (United States)

Caglar, Mehmet Umut; Pal, Ranadip

2011-03-01

Central dogma of molecular biology states that ``information cannot be transferred back from protein to either protein or nucleic acid''. However, this assumption is not exactly correct in most of the cases. There are a lot of feedback loops and interactions between different levels of systems. These types of interactions are hard to analyze due to the lack of cell level data and probabilistic - nonlinear nature of interactions. Several models widely used to analyze and simulate these types of nonlinear interactions. Stochastic Master Equation (SME) models give probabilistic nature of the interactions in a detailed manner, with a high calculation cost. On the other hand Probabilistic Boolean Network (PBN) models give a coarse scale picture of the stochastic processes, with a less calculation cost. Differential Equation (DE) models give the time evolution of mean values of processes in a highly cost effective way. The understanding of the relations between the predictions of these models is important to understand the reliability of the simulations of genetic regulatory networks. In this work the success of the mapping between SME, PBN and DE models is analyzed and the accuracy and affectivity of the control policies generated by using PBN and DE models is compared.

Using Bilingual Dictionaries.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Geoff

1987-01-01

Monolingual dictionaries have serious disadvantages in many language teaching situations; bilingual dictionaries are potentially more efficient and more motivating sources of information for language learners. (Author/CB)

Is bilingualism losing its advantage? A bibliometric approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanchez-Azanza, Victor A; López-Penadés, Raúl; Buil-Legaz, Lucía; Aguilar-Mediavilla, Eva; Adrover-Roig, Daniel

2017-01-01

This study uses several bibliometric indices to explore the temporal course of publication trends regarding the bilingual advantage in executive control over a ten-year window. These indices include the number of published papers, numbers of citations, and the journal impact factor. According to the information available in their abstracts, studies were classified into one of four categories: supporting, ambiguous towards, not mentioning, or challenging the bilingual advantage. Results show that the number of papers challenging the bilingual advantage increased notably in 2014 and 2015. Both the average impact factor and the accumulated citations as of June 2016 were equivalent between categories. However, of the studies published in 2014, those that challenge the bilingual advantage accumulated more citations in June 2016 than those supporting it. Our findings offer evidence-based bibliometric information about the current state of the literature and suggest a change in publication trends regarding the literature on the bilingual advantage.

PROBABILISTIC MODEL FOR AIRPORT RUNWAY SAFETY AREAS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stanislav SZABO

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The Laboratory of Aviation Safety and Security at CTU in Prague has recently started a project aimed at runway protection zones. The probability of exceeding by a certain distance from the runway in common incident/accident scenarios (take-off/landing overrun/veer-off, landing undershoot is being identified relative to the runway for any airport. As a result, the size and position of safety areas around runways are defined for the chosen probability. The basis for probability calculation is a probabilistic model using statistics from more than 1400 real-world cases where jet airplanes have been involved over the last few decades. Other scientific studies have contributed to understanding the issue and supported the model’s application to different conditions.

Bilinguals' Existing Languages Benefit Vocabulary Learning in a Third Language.

Science.gov (United States)

Bartolotti, James; Marian, Viorica

2017-03-01

Learning a new language involves substantial vocabulary acquisition. Learners can accelerate this process by relying on words with native-language overlap, such as cognates. For bilingual third language learners, it is necessary to determine how their two existing languages interact during novel language learning. A scaffolding account predicts transfer from either language for individual words, whereas an accumulation account predicts cumulative transfer from both languages. To compare these accounts, twenty English-German bilingual adults were taught an artificial language containing 48 novel written words that varied orthogonally in English and German wordlikeness (neighborhood size and orthotactic probability). Wordlikeness in each language improved word production accuracy, and similarity to one language provided the same benefit as dual-language overlap. In addition, participants' memory for novel words was affected by the statistical distributions of letters in the novel language. Results indicate that bilinguals utilize both languages during third language acquisition, supporting a scaffolding learning model.

Language choice in bimodal bilingual development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diane eLillo-Martin

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Bilingual children develop sensitivity to the language used by their interlocutors at an early age, reflected in differential use of each language by the child depending on their interlocutor. Factors such as discourse context and relative language dominance in the community may mediate the degree of language differentiation in preschool age children.Bimodal bilingual children, acquiring both a sign language and a spoken language, have an even more complex situation. Their Deaf parents vary considerably in access to the spoken language. Furthermore, in addition to code-mixing and code-switching, they use code-blending – expressions in both speech and sign simultaneously – an option uniquely available to bimodal bilinguals. Code-blending is analogous to code-switching sociolinguistically, but is also a way to communicate without suppressing one language. For adult bimodal bilinguals, complete suppression of the non-selected language is cognitively demanding. We expect that bimodal bilingual children also find suppression difficult, and use blending rather than suppression in some contexts. We also expect relative community language dominance to be a factor in children’s language choices.This study analyzes longitudinal spontaneous production data from four bimodal bilingual children and their Deaf and hearing interlocutors. Even at the earliest observations, the children produced more signed utterances with Deaf interlocutors and more speech with hearing interlocutors. However, while three of the four children produced >75% speech alone in speech target sessions, they produced <25% sign alone in sign target sessions. All four produced bimodal utterances in both, but more frequently in the sign sessions, potentially because they find suppression of the dominant language more difficult.Our results indicate that these children are sensitive to the language used by their interlocutors, while showing considerable influence from the dominant

Bilingual teaching for multilingual students? Innovative dual-medium models in Slovene-German schools in Austria

Science.gov (United States)

Purkarthofer, Judith; Mossakowski, Jan

2011-12-01

Traditional bilingual education programmes in regional linguistic minority contexts face major challenges within the recent paradigm of linguistic diversity against a background of increasing migration, mobility and trans-locality. Based on three case studies, the authors of this paper focus on how particular dual-medium models are applied in Slovene-German schools in Carinthia, Austria. They examine not only how these schools provide for a balanced bilingual teaching and learning environment, but also how they deal with their students' multilingual realities and support their identification with bi- and multilingualism. The authors regard schools as institutional sites where linguistic dispositions are subject to discursive power relations and where language policies and educational goals are negotiated by teachers, parents and students alike. Drawing on speaker-centred and ethnographic approaches in sociolinguistic research, the authors seek to document experiences of all actors involved as well as spatial and discursive practices. Through this the authors show how these dual-medium schools achieve particular profiles in multilingual education which are potentially regarded as innovative examples of best-practice and as being of interest for students and families with heterogeneous linguistic backgrounds.

How does the bilingual experience sculpt the brain?

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Albert; Sebastián-Gallés, Núria

2014-05-01

The ability to speak two languages often marvels monolinguals, although bilinguals report no difficulties in achieving this feat. Here, we examine how learning and using two languages affect language acquisition and processing as well as various aspects of cognition. We do so by addressing three main questions. First, how do infants who are exposed to two languages acquire them without apparent difficulty? Second, how does language processing differ between monolingual and bilingual adults? Last, what are the collateral effects of bilingualism on the executive control system across the lifespan? Research in all three areas has not only provided some fascinating insights into bilingualism but also revealed new issues related to brain plasticity and language learning.

Probabilistic Learning by Rodent Grid Cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheung, Allen

2016-10-01

Mounting evidence shows mammalian brains are probabilistic computers, but the specific cells involved remain elusive. Parallel research suggests that grid cells of the mammalian hippocampal formation are fundamental to spatial cognition but their diverse response properties still defy explanation. No plausible model exists which explains stable grids in darkness for twenty minutes or longer, despite being one of the first results ever published on grid cells. Similarly, no current explanation can tie together grid fragmentation and grid rescaling, which show very different forms of flexibility in grid responses when the environment is varied. Other properties such as attractor dynamics and grid anisotropy seem to be at odds with one another unless additional properties are assumed such as a varying velocity gain. Modelling efforts have largely ignored the breadth of response patterns, while also failing to account for the disastrous effects of sensory noise during spatial learning and recall, especially in darkness. Here, published electrophysiological evidence from a range of experiments are reinterpreted using a novel probabilistic learning model, which shows that grid cell responses are accurately predicted by a probabilistic learning process. Diverse response properties of probabilistic grid cells are statistically indistinguishable from rat grid cells across key manipulations. A simple coherent set of probabilistic computations explains stable grid fields in darkness, partial grid rescaling in resized arenas, low-dimensional attractor grid cell dynamics, and grid fragmentation in hairpin mazes. The same computations also reconcile oscillatory dynamics at the single cell level with attractor dynamics at the cell ensemble level. Additionally, a clear functional role for boundary cells is proposed for spatial learning. These findings provide a parsimonious and unified explanation of grid cell function, and implicate grid cells as an accessible neuronal population

Bilingualism--A Sanguine Step in ELT

Science.gov (United States)

Anil, Beena

2014-01-01

Bilingualism can be used as a teaching aid in teaching and learning English language in an Indian classroom and to improve the language accuracy, fluency, and clarity of learners. Bilingualism can aid the teaching and learning process productively in the classroom. In India, most of the students consider English as a subject rather than a tool of…

Effects of bilingualism on white matter integrity in older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, John A E; Grundy, John G; De Frutos, Jaisalmer; Barker, Ryan M; Grady, Cheryl; Bialystok, Ellen

2018-02-15

Bilingualism can delay the onset of dementia symptoms and has thus been characterized as a mechanism for cognitive or brain reserve, although the origin of this reserve is unknown. Studies with young adults generally show that bilingualism is associated with a strengthening of white matter, but there is conflicting evidence for how bilingualism affects white matter in older age. Given that bilingualism has been shown to help stave off the symptoms of dementia by up to four years, it is crucial that we clarify the mechanism underlying this reserve. The current study uses diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) to compare monolinguals and bilinguals while carefully controlling for potential confounds (e.g., I.Q., MMSE, and demographic variables). We show that group differences in Fractional Anisotropy (FA) and Radial Diffusivity (RD) arise from multivariable interactions not adequately controlled for by sequential bivariate testing. After matching and statistically controlling for confounds, bilinguals still had greater axial diffusivity (AD) in the left superior longitudinal fasciculus than monolingual peers, supporting a neural reserve account for healthy older bilinguals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Convex models and probabilistic approach of nonlinear fatigue failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qiu Zhiping; Lin Qiang; Wang Xiaojun

2008-01-01

This paper is concerned with the nonlinear fatigue failure problem with uncertainties in the structural systems. In the present study, in order to solve the nonlinear problem by convex models, the theory of ellipsoidal algebra with the help of the thought of interval analysis is applied. In terms of the inclusion monotonic property of ellipsoidal functions, the nonlinear fatigue failure problem with uncertainties can be solved. A numerical example of 25-bar truss structures is given to illustrate the efficiency of the presented method in comparison with the probabilistic approach

Probabilistic migration modelling focused on functional barrier efficiency and low migration concepts in support of risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Brandsch, Rainer

2017-10-01

Migration modelling provides reliable migration estimates from food-contact materials (FCM) to food or food simulants based on mass-transfer parameters like diffusion and partition coefficients related to individual materials. In most cases, mass-transfer parameters are not readily available from the literature and for this reason are estimated with a given uncertainty. Historically, uncertainty was accounted for by introducing upper limit concepts first, turning out to be of limited applicability due to highly overestimated migration results. Probabilistic migration modelling gives the possibility to consider uncertainty of the mass-transfer parameters as well as other model inputs. With respect to a functional barrier, the most important parameters among others are the diffusion properties of the functional barrier and its thickness. A software tool that accepts distribution as inputs and is capable of applying Monte Carlo methods, i.e., random sampling from the input distributions of the relevant parameters (i.e., diffusion coefficient and layer thickness), predicts migration results with related uncertainty and confidence intervals. The capabilities of probabilistic migration modelling are presented in the view of three case studies (1) sensitivity analysis, (2) functional barrier efficiency and (3) validation by experimental testing. Based on the predicted migration by probabilistic migration modelling and related exposure estimates, safety evaluation of new materials in the context of existing or new packaging concepts is possible. Identifying associated migration risk and potential safety concerns in the early stage of packaging development is possible. Furthermore, dedicated material selection exhibiting required functional barrier efficiency under application conditions becomes feasible. Validation of the migration risk assessment by probabilistic migration modelling through a minimum of dedicated experimental testing is strongly recommended.

The impact of bilingualism on working memory in pediatric epilepsy

Science.gov (United States)

Veenstra, Amy L.; Riley, Jeffrey D.; Barrett, Lauren E.; Muhonen, Michael G.; Zupanc, Mary; Romain, Jonathan E.; Lin, Jack J.; Mucci, Grace

2016-01-01

Impairments in executive skills broadly span across multiple childhood epilepsy syndromes and can adversely affect quality of life. Bilingualism has been previously shown to correlate with enhanced executive functioning in healthy individuals. This study seeks to determine whether the bilingual advantage in executive functioning exists in the context of pediatric epilepsy. We retrospectively analyzed neuropsychological data in 52 children with epilepsy and compared executive function scores in monolingual versus bilingual children with epilepsy, while controlling for socioeconomic status and ethnicity. Bilingual children performed significantly better on the Working Memory scale than did monolingual children. There were no significant differences on the remaining executive function variables. The bilingual advantage appears to persist for working memory in children with epilepsy. These findings suggest that bilingualism is potentially a protective variable in the face of epilepsy-related working memory dysfunction. PMID:26720703

Probabilistic Model for Integrated Assessment of the Behavior at the T.D.P. Version 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hurtado, A.; Eguilior, S.; Recreo, F

2015-01-01

This report documents the completion of the first phase of the implementation of the methodology ABACO2G (Bayes Application to Geological Storage of CO2) and the final version of the ABACO2G probabilistic model for the injection phase before its future validation in the experimental field of the Technology Development Plant in Hontom (Burgos). The model, which is based on the determination of the probabilistic risk component of a geological storage of CO2 using the formalism of Bayesian networks and Monte Carlo probability yields quantitative probability functions of the total system CO2 storage and of each one of their subsystems (storage subsystem and the primary seal; secondary containment subsystem and dispersion subsystem or tertiary one); the implementation of the stochastic time evolution of the CO2 plume during the injection period, the stochastic time evolution of the drying front, the probabilistic evolution of the pressure front, decoupled from the CO2 plume progress front, and the implementation of submodels and leakage probability functions through major leakage risk elements (fractures / faults and wells / deep boreholes) which together define the space of events to estimate the risks associated with the CO2 geological storage system. The activities included in this report have been to replace the previous qualitative estimation submodels of former ABACO2G version developed during Phase I of the project ALM-10-017, by analytical, semi-analytical or numerical submodels for the main elements of risk (wells and fractures), to obtain an integrated probabilistic model of a CO2 storage complex in carbonate formations that meets the needs of the integrated behavior evaluation of the Technology Development Plant in Hontomín

A novel soft tissue prediction methodology for orthognathic surgery based on probabilistic finite element modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Knoops, Paul G M; Borghi, Alessandro; Ruggiero, Federica; Badiali, Giovanni; Bianchi, Alberto; Marchetti, Claudio; Rodriguez-Florez, Naiara; Breakey, Richard W F; Jeelani, Owase; Dunaway, David J; Schievano, Silvia

2018-01-01

Repositioning of the maxilla in orthognathic surgery is carried out for functional and aesthetic purposes. Pre-surgical planning tools can predict 3D facial appearance by computing the response of the soft tissue to the changes to the underlying skeleton. The clinical use of commercial prediction software remains controversial, likely due to the deterministic nature of these computational predictions. A novel probabilistic finite element model (FEM) for the prediction of postoperative facial soft tissues is proposed in this paper. A probabilistic FEM was developed and validated on a cohort of eight patients who underwent maxillary repositioning and had pre- and postoperative cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans taken. Firstly, a variables correlation assessed various modelling parameters. Secondly, a design of experiments (DOE) provided a range of potential outcomes based on uniformly distributed input parameters, followed by an optimisation. Lastly, the second DOE iteration provided optimised predictions with a probability range. A range of 3D predictions was obtained using the probabilistic FEM and validated using reconstructed soft tissue surfaces from the postoperative CBCT data. The predictions in the nose and upper lip areas accurately include the true postoperative position, whereas the prediction under-estimates the position of the cheeks and lower lip. A probabilistic FEM has been developed and validated for the prediction of the facial appearance following orthognathic surgery. This method shows how inaccuracies in the modelling and uncertainties in executing surgical planning influence the soft tissue prediction and it provides a range of predictions including a minimum and maximum, which may be helpful for patients in understanding the impact of surgery on the face.

Decomposing biodiversity data using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model, a probabilistic multivariate statistical method

Science.gov (United States)

Denis Valle; Benjamin Baiser; Christopher W. Woodall; Robin Chazdon; Jerome. Chave

2014-01-01

We propose a novel multivariate method to analyse biodiversity data based on the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model. LDA, a probabilistic model, reduces assemblages to sets of distinct component communities. It produces easily interpretable results, can represent abrupt and gradual changes in composition, accommodates missing data and allows for coherent estimates...

Cognitive flexibility in drawings of bilingual children.

Science.gov (United States)

Adi-Japha, Esther; Berberich-Artzi, Jennie; Libnawi, Afaf

2010-01-01

A. Karmiloff-Smith's (1990) task of drawing a nonexistent object is considered to be a measure of cognitive flexibility. The notion of earlier emergence of cognitive flexibility in bilingual children motivated the current researchers to request 4- and 5-year-old English-Hebrew and Arabic-Hebrew bilingual children and their monolingual peers to draw a flower and a house that do not exist (N=80). Bilinguals exhibited a significantly higher rate of interrepresentational flexibility in their drawings (e.g., "a giraffe flower,"a chair-house," found in 28 of 54 drawings), whereas the level of complex intrarepresentational change was similar across groups. Interrepresentational drawings were previously reported only for children older than 7 years. The specific mechanisms by which bilinguals' language experience may lead to interrepresentational flexibility are discussed. © 2010 The Authors. Child Development © 2010 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Can bilingual two-year-olds code-switch?

Science.gov (United States)

Lanza, E

1992-10-01

Sociolinguists have investigated language mixing as code-switching in the speech of bilingual children three years old and older. Language mixing by bilingual two-year-olds, however, has generally been interpreted in the child language literature as a sign of the child's lack of language differentiation. The present study applies perspectives from sociolinguistics to investigate the language mixing of a bilingual two-year-old acquiring Norwegian and English simultaneously in Norway. Monthly recordings of the child's spontaneous speech in interactions with her parents were made from the age of 2;0 to 2;7. An investigation into the formal aspects of the child's mixing and the context of the mixing reveals that she does differentiate her language use in contextually sensitive ways, hence that she can code-switch. This investigation stresses the need to examine more carefully the roles of dominance and context in the language mixing of young bilingual children.

Probabilistic model for fatigue crack growth and fracture of welded joints in civil engineering structures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maljaars, J.; Steenbergen, H.M.G.M.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a probabilistic assessment model for linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM). The model allows the determination of the failure probability of a structure subjected to fatigue loading. The distributions of the random variables for civil engineering structures are provided, and

Scalable group level probabilistic sparse factor analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hinrich, Jesper Løve; Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Riis, Nicolai Andre Brogaard

2017-01-01

Many data-driven approaches exist to extract neural representations of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, but most of them lack a proper probabilistic formulation. We propose a scalable group level probabilistic sparse factor analysis (psFA) allowing spatially sparse maps, component...... pruning using automatic relevance determination (ARD) and subject specific heteroscedastic spatial noise modeling. For task-based and resting state fMRI, we show that the sparsity constraint gives rise to components similar to those obtained by group independent component analysis. The noise modeling...... shows that noise is reduced in areas typically associated with activation by the experimental design. The psFA model identifies sparse components and the probabilistic setting provides a natural way to handle parameter uncertainties. The variational Bayesian framework easily extends to more complex...

A deterministic-probabilistic model for contaminant transport. User manual

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schwartz, F W; Crowe, A

1980-08-01

This manual describes a deterministic-probabilistic contaminant transport (DPCT) computer model designed to simulate mass transfer by ground-water movement in a vertical section of the earth's crust. The model can account for convection, dispersion, radioactive decay, and cation exchange for a single component. A velocity is calculated from the convective transport of the ground water for each reference particle in the modeled region; dispersion is accounted for in the particle motion by adding a readorn component to the deterministic motion. The model is sufficiently general to enable the user to specify virtually any type of water table or geologic configuration, and a variety of boundary conditions. A major emphasis in the model development has been placed on making the model simple to use, and information provided in the User Manual will permit changes to the computer code to be made relatively easily for those that might be required for specific applications. (author)

Surrogate reservoir models for CSI well probabilistic production forecast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saúl Buitrago

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of this work is to present the construction and use of Surrogate Reservoir Models capable of accurately predicting cumulative oil production for every well stimulated with cyclic steam injection at any given time in a heavy oil reservoir in Mexico considering uncertain variables. The central composite experimental design technique was selected to capture the maximum amount of information from the model response with a minimum number of reservoir models simulations. Four input uncertain variables (the dead oil viscosity with temperature, the reservoir pressure, the reservoir permeability and oil sand thickness hydraulically connected to the well were selected as the ones with more impact on the initial hot oil production rate according to an analytical production prediction model. Twenty five runs were designed and performed with the STARS simulator for each well type on the reservoir model. The results show that the use of Surrogate Reservoir Models is a fast viable alternative to perform probabilistic production forecasting of the reservoir.

Statistical analysis of probabilistic models of software product lines with quantitative constraints

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beek, M.H. ter; Legay, A.; Lluch Lafuente, Alberto

2015-01-01

We investigate the suitability of statistical model checking for the analysis of probabilistic models of software product lines with complex quantitative constraints and advanced feature installation options. Such models are specified in the feature-oriented language QFLan, a rich process algebra...... of certain behaviour to the expected average cost of products. This is supported by a Maude implementation of QFLan, integrated with the SMT solver Z3 and the distributed statistical model checker MultiVeStA. Our approach is illustrated with a bikes product line case study....

Process for computing geometric perturbations for probabilistic analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Fitch, Simeon H. K. [Charlottesville, VA; Riha, David S [San Antonio, TX; Thacker, Ben H [San Antonio, TX

2012-04-10

A method for computing geometric perturbations for probabilistic analysis. The probabilistic analysis is based on finite element modeling, in which uncertainties in the modeled system are represented by changes in the nominal geometry of the model, referred to as "perturbations". These changes are accomplished using displacement vectors, which are computed for each node of a region of interest and are based on mean-value coordinate calculations.

Structural and functional properties of a probabilistic model of neuronal connectivity in a simple locomotor network

Science.gov (United States)

Merrison-Hort, Robert; Soffe, Stephen R; Borisyuk, Roman

2018-01-01

Although, in most animals, brain connectivity varies between individuals, behaviour is often similar across a species. What fundamental structural properties are shared across individual networks that define this behaviour? We describe a probabilistic model of connectivity in the hatchling Xenopus tadpole spinal cord which, when combined with a spiking model, reliably produces rhythmic activity corresponding to swimming. The probabilistic model allows calculation of structural characteristics that reflect common network properties, independent of individual network realisations. We use the structural characteristics to study examples of neuronal dynamics, in the complete network and various sub-networks, and this allows us to explain the basis for key experimental findings, and make predictions for experiments. We also study how structural and functional features differ between detailed anatomical connectomes and those generated by our new, simpler, model (meta-model). PMID:29589828

A Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Model

Science.gov (United States)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Wheeler, Lorien F.; Dotson, Jessie L.

2016-01-01

Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.

A Probabilistic Model of Social Working Memory for Information Retrieval in Social Interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Liyuan; Xu, Qianli; Gan, Tian; Tan, Cheston; Lim, Joo-Hwee

2018-05-01

Social working memory (SWM) plays an important role in navigating social interactions. Inspired by studies in psychology, neuroscience, cognitive science, and machine learning, we propose a probabilistic model of SWM to mimic human social intelligence for personal information retrieval (IR) in social interactions. First, we establish a semantic hierarchy as social long-term memory to encode personal information. Next, we propose a semantic Bayesian network as the SWM, which integrates the cognitive functions of accessibility and self-regulation. One subgraphical model implements the accessibility function to learn the social consensus about IR-based on social information concept, clustering, social context, and similarity between persons. Beyond accessibility, one more layer is added to simulate the function of self-regulation to perform the personal adaptation to the consensus based on human personality. Two learning algorithms are proposed to train the probabilistic SWM model on a raw dataset of high uncertainty and incompleteness. One is an efficient learning algorithm of Newton's method, and the other is a genetic algorithm. Systematic evaluations show that the proposed SWM model is able to learn human social intelligence effectively and outperforms the baseline Bayesian cognitive model. Toward real-world applications, we implement our model on Google Glass as a wearable assistant for social interaction.

Developing probabilistic models to predict amphibian site occupancy in a patchy landscape

Science.gov (United States)

R. A. Knapp; K.R. Matthews; H. K. Preisler; R. Jellison

2003-01-01

Abstract. Human-caused fragmentation of habitats is threatening an increasing number of animal and plant species, making an understanding of the factors influencing patch occupancy ever more important. The overall goal of the current study was to develop probabilistic models of patch occupancy for the mountain yellow-legged frog (Rana muscosa). This once-common species...

Lithuanian speaking childrens' bilingualism. language situation and policy

OpenAIRE

Paškauskaitė, Ieva

2017-01-01

Lithuanian Speaking Childrens' Bilingualism. Language Situation and Policy The purpose of this study is to investigate the language situation of Lithuanian speaking children in Sweden and its causes. This study is specifically concerned with the subjects of bilingualism and family language policy: language strategies and methods. The concept of bilingualism is complex and can be defined in different ways, therefore this study is based on a table which was introduced by T. Skutnabb-Kangas in 1...

The impact of bilingualism on working memory in pediatric epilepsy.

Science.gov (United States)

Veenstra, Amy L; Riley, Jeffrey D; Barrett, Lauren E; Muhonen, Michael G; Zupanc, Mary; Romain, Jonathan E; Lin, Jack J; Mucci, Grace

2016-02-01

Impairments in executive skills broadly span across multiple childhood epilepsy syndromes and can adversely affect quality of life. Bilingualism has been previously shown to correlate with enhanced executive functioning in healthy individuals. This study sought to determine whether the bilingual advantage in executive functioning exists in the context of pediatric epilepsy. We retrospectively analyzed neuropsychological data in 52 children with epilepsy and compared executive function scores in monolingual versus bilingual children with epilepsy while controlling for socioeconomic status and ethnicity. Bilingual children performed significantly better on the Working Memory Index than did monolingual children. There were no significant differences on the remaining executive function variables. The bilingual advantage appears to persist for working memory in children with epilepsy. These findings suggest that bilingualism is potentially a protective variable in the face of epilepsy-related working memory dysfunction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

L1 and L2 Picture Naming in Mandarin-English Bilinguals: A Test of Bilingual Dual Coding Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Jared, Debra; Poh, Rebecca Pei Yun; Paivio, Allan

2013-01-01

This study examined the nature of bilinguals' conceptual representations and the links from these representations to words in L1 and L2. Specifically, we tested an assumption of the Bilingual Dual Coding Theory that conceptual representations include image representations, and that learning two languages in separate contexts can result in…

A Probabilistic Model to Evaluate the Optimal Density of Stations Measuring Snowfall.

Science.gov (United States)

Schneebeli, Martin; Laternser, Martin

2004-05-01

Daily new snow measurements are very important for avalanche forecasting and tourism. A dense network of manual or automatic stations measuring snowfall is necessary to have spatially reliable data. Snow stations in Switzerland were built at partially subjective locations. A probabilistic model based on the frequency and spatial extent of areas covered by heavy snowfalls was developed to quantify the probability that snowfall events are measured by the stations. Area probability relations were calculated for different thresholds of daily accumulated snowfall. A probabilistic model, including autocorrelation, was used to calculate the optimal spacing of stations based on simulated triangular grids and to compare the capture probability of different networks and snowfall thresholds. The Swiss operational snow-stations network captured snowfall events with high probability, but the distribution of the stations could be optimized. The spatial variability increased with higher thresholds of daily accumulated snowfall, and the capture probability decreased with increasing thresholds. The method can be used for other areas where the area probability relation for threshold values of snow or rain can be calculated.

Enhanced music sensitivity in 9-month-old bilingual infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Liquan; Kager, René

2017-02-01

This study explores the influence of bilingualism on the cognitive processing of language and music. Specifically, we investigate how infants learning a non-tone language perceive linguistic and musical pitch and how bilingualism affects cross-domain pitch perception. Dutch monolingual and bilingual infants of 8-9 months participated in the study. All infants had Dutch as one of the first languages. The other first languages, varying among bilingual families, were not tone or pitch accent languages. In two experiments, infants were tested on the discrimination of a lexical (N = 42) or a violin (N = 48) pitch contrast via a visual habituation paradigm. The two contrasts shared identical pitch contours but differed in timbre. Non-tone language learning infants did not discriminate the lexical contrast regardless of their ambient language environment. When perceiving the violin contrast, bilingual but not monolingual infants demonstrated robust discrimination. We attribute bilingual infants' heightened sensitivity in the musical domain to the enhanced acoustic sensitivity stemming from a bilingual environment. The distinct perceptual patterns between language and music and the influence of acoustic salience on perception suggest processing diversion and association in the first year of life. Results indicate that the perception of music may entail both shared neural network with language processing, and unique neural network that is distinct from other cognitive functions.

Bilingualism at the core of the brain. Structural differences between bilinguals and monolinguals revealed by subcortical shape analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Burgaleta, Miguel; Sanjuán, Ana; Ventura-Campos, Noelia; Sebastian-Galles, Núria; Ávila, César

2016-01-15

Naturally acquiring a language shapes the human brain through a long-lasting learning and practice process. This is supported by previous studies showing that managing more than one language from early childhood has an impact on brain structure and function. However, to what extent bilingual individuals present neuroanatomical peculiarities at the subcortical level with respect to monolinguals is yet not well understood, despite the key role of subcortical gray matter for a number of language functions, including monitoring of speech production and language control - two processes especially solicited by bilinguals. Here we addressed this issue by performing a subcortical surface-based analysis in a sample of monolinguals and simultaneous bilinguals (N=88) that only differed in their language experience from birth. This analysis allowed us to study with great anatomical precision the potential differences in morphology of key subcortical structures, namely, the caudate, accumbens, putamen, globus pallidus and thalamus. Vertexwise analyses revealed significantly expanded subcortical structures for bilinguals compared to monolinguals, localized in bilateral putamen and thalamus, as well as in the left globus pallidus and right caudate nucleus. A topographical interpretation of our results suggests that a more complex phonological system in bilinguals may lead to a greater development of a subcortical brain network involved in monitoring articulatory processes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does bilingualism contribute to cognitive reserve? Cognitive and neural perspectives.

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Guzmán-Vélez, Edmarie; Tranel, Daniel

2015-01-01

Cognitive reserve refers to how individuals actively utilize neural resources to cope with neuropathology to maintain cognitive functioning. The present review aims to critically examine the literature addressing the relationship between bilingualism and cognitive reserve to elucidate whether bilingualism delays the onset of cognitive and behavioral manifestations of dementia. Potential neural mechanisms behind this relationship are discussed. PubMed and PsycINFO databases were searched (through January 2014) for original research articles in English or Spanish languages. The following search strings were used as keywords for study retrieval: "bilingual AND reserve," "reserve AND neural mechanisms," and "reserve AND multilingualism." Growing scientific evidence suggests that lifelong bilingualism contributes to cognitive reserve and delays the onset of Alzheimer's disease symptoms, allowing bilingual individuals affected by Alzheimer's disease to live an independent and richer life for a longer time than their monolingual counterparts. Lifelong bilingualism is related to more efficient use of brain resources that help individuals maintain cognitive functioning in the presence of neuropathology. We propose multiple putative neural mechanisms through which lifelong bilinguals cope with neuropathology. The roles of immigration status, education, age of onset, proficiency, and frequency of language use on the relationship between cognitive reserve and bilingualism are considered. Implications of these results for preventive practices and future research are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Does Bilingualism Contribute to Cognitive Reserve? Cognitive and Neural Perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Guzmán-Vélez, Edmarie; Tranel, Daniel

2015-01-01

Objective Cognitive reserve refers to how individuals actively utilize neural resources to cope with neuropathology in order to maintain cognitive functioning. The present review aims to critically examine the literature addressing the relationship between bilingualism and cognitive reserve in order to elucidate whether bilingualism delays the onset of cognitive and behavioral manifestations of dementia. Potential neural mechanisms behind this relationship are discussed. Method Pubmed and PsychINFO databases were searched (through January 2014) for original research articles in English or Spanish languages. The following search strings were employed as keywords for study retrieval: ‘bilingual AND reserve’, ‘reserve AND neural mechanisms’, and ‘reserve AND multilingualism’. Results Growing scientific evidence suggests that lifelong bilingualism contributes to cognitive reserve and delays the onset of Alzheimer's disease symptoms, allowing bilingual individuals affected by Alzheimer's disease to live an independent and richer life for a longer time than their monolingual counterparts. Lifelong bilingualism is related to more efficient use of brain resources that help individuals maintain cognitive functioning in the presence of neuropathology. We propose multiple putative neural mechanisms through which lifelong bilinguals cope with neuropathology. The roles of immigration status, education, age of onset, proficiency and frequency of language use on the relationship between cognitive reserve and bilingualism are considered. Conclusions Implications of these results for preventive practices and future research are discussed. PMID:24933492

Translanguaging and the Writing of Bilingual Learners

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Velasco, Patricia; García, Ofelia

2014-01-01

This article makes the case for using translanguaging in developing the academic writing of bilinguals. It reviews the emerging literature on learning and teaching theories of translanguaging and presents theoretical understandings of biliteracy development and specifically on the teaching of writing to bilingual learners. The article analyzes…

Model Programs: Compensatory Education. The Juan Morel Campos Bilingual Center, Chicago, Illinois.

Science.gov (United States)

National Center for Educational Communication (DHEW/OE), Washington, DC.

The bilingual program described in this booklet offers intermediate-grade English and Spanish instruction to Spanish-speaking children from an economically disadvantaged neighborhood in one of Chicago's largest school districts. The descriptive information presented here concerns context and objectives, necessary personnel, educational…

Bilingualism modulates dual mechanisms of cognitive control: Evidence from ERPs.

Science.gov (United States)

Morales, Julia; Yudes, Carolina; Gómez-Ariza, Carlos J; Bajo, M Teresa

2015-01-01

Recent behavioral findings with the AX-Continous Performance Task (AX-CPT; Morales et al., 2013) show that bilinguals only outperform monolinguals under conditions that require the highest adjustment between monitoring (proactive) and inhibitory (reactive) control, which supports the idea that bilingualism modulates the coordination of different control mechanisms. In an ERP experiment we aimed to further investigate the role that bilingualism plays in the dynamic combination of proactive and reactive control in the AX-CPT. Our results strongly indicate that bilingualism facilitates an effective adjustment between both components of cognitive control. First, we replicated previous behavioral results. Second, ERP components indicated that bilingualism influences the conflict monitoring, response inhibition and error monitoring components of control (as indexed by the N2 and P3a elicited by the probe and the error-related negativity following incorrect responses, respectively). Thus, bilinguals exerted higher reactive control than monolinguals but only when they needed to overcome the competing cue-information. These findings join others in suggesting that a better understanding of the cognitive benefits of bilingualism may require consideration of a multi-component perspective. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The joint effect of bilingualism and ADHD on executive functions.

Science.gov (United States)

Mor, Billy; Yitzhaki-Amsalem, Sarin; Prior, Anat

2015-06-01

The current study investigated the combined effect of ADHD, previously associated with executive function (EF) deficits, and of bilingualism, previously associated with EF enhancement, on EF. Eighty University students, Hebrew monolinguals and Russian Hebrew bilinguals, with and without ADHD participated. Inhibition tasks were a Numeric Stroop task and a Simon arrows task. Shifting tasks were the Trail Making Test (TMT) and a task-switching paradigm. Participants with ADHD performed worse than controls, but we did not find a bilingual advantage in EF. The negative impact of ADHD was more pronounced for bilinguals than for monolinguals, but only in interference suppression tasks. Bilingual participants with ADHD had the lowest performance. Bilingualism might prove to be an added burden for adults with ADHD, leading to reduced EF abilities. Alternatively, the current findings might be ascribed to over- or under-diagnosis of ADHD due to cultural differences between groups. These issues should be pursued in future research. © 2014 SAGE Publications.

Plasticity, Variability and Age in Second Language Acquisition and Bilingualism.

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Birdsong, David

2018-01-01

Much of what is known about the outcome of second language acquisition and bilingualism can be summarized in terms of inter-individual variability, plasticity and age. The present review looks at variability and plasticity with respect to their underlying sources, and at age as a modulating factor in variability and plasticity. In this context we consider critical period effects vs. bilingualism effects, early and late bilingualism, nativelike and non-nativelike L2 attainment, cognitive aging, individual differences in learning, and linguistic dominance in bilingualism. Non-uniformity is an inherent characteristic of both early and late bilingualism. This review shows how plasticity and age connect with biological and experiential sources of variability, and underscores the value of research that reveals and explains variability. In these ways the review suggests how plasticity, variability and age conspire to frame fundamental research issues in L2 acquisition and bilingualism, and provides points of reference for discussion of the present Frontiers in Psychology Research Topic.

Bilingualism Alters Children's Frontal Lobe Functioning for Attentional Control

Science.gov (United States)

Arredondo, Maria M.; Hu, Xiao-Su; Satterfield, Teresa; Kovelman, Ioulia

2017-01-01

Bilingualism is a typical linguistic experience, yet relatively little is known about its impact on children's cognitive and brain development. Theories of bilingualism suggest early dual-language acquisition can improve children's cognitive abilities, specifically those relying on frontal lobe functioning. While behavioral findings present much conflicting evidence, little is known about its effects on children's frontal lobe development. Using functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (fNIRS), the findings suggest that Spanish-English bilingual children (n=13, ages 7-13) had greater activation in left prefrontal cortex during a non-verbal attentional control task relative to age-matched English monolinguals. In contrast, monolinguals (n=14) showed greater right prefrontal activation than bilinguals. The present findings suggest early bilingualism yields significant changes to the functional organization of children's prefrontal cortex for attentional control and carry implications for understanding how early life experiences impact cognition and brain development. PMID:26743118

Cognitive advantage in bilingualism: an example of publication bias?

Science.gov (United States)

de Bruin, Angela; Treccani, Barbara; Della Sala, Sergio

2015-01-01

It is a widely held belief that bilinguals have an advantage over monolinguals in executive-control tasks, but is this what all studies actually demonstrate? The idea of a bilingual advantage may result from a publication bias favoring studies with positive results over studies with null or negative effects. To test this hypothesis, we looked at conference abstracts from 1999 to 2012 on the topic of bilingualism and executive control. We then determined which of the studies they reported were subsequently published. Studies with results fully supporting the bilingual-advantage theory were most likely to be published, followed by studies with mixed results. Studies challenging the bilingual advantage were published the least. This discrepancy was not due to differences in sample size, tests used, or statistical power. A test for funnel-plot asymmetry provided further evidence for the existence of a publication bias. © The Author(s) 2014.

Education, bilingualism, and cognitive trajectories: Sacramento Area Latino Aging Study (SALSA).

Science.gov (United States)

Mungas, Dan; Early, Dawnté R; Glymour, M Maria; Zeki Al Hazzouri, Adina; Haan, Mary N

2018-01-01

This study examined the influence of education, country where education occurred, and monolingual-bilingual (English/Spanish) language usage on late life cognitive trajectories in the Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging (SALSA), an epidemiological study of health and cognition in Hispanics, mostly of Mexican origin, age 60 and over (N = 1,499). SALSA followed a large cohort of older Latinos for up to 7 assessment waves from 1998 to 2007. Global cognition was assessed by using the Modified Mini Mental State Examination, and the Spanish English Verbal Learning Test was used to measure episodic memory. Education, country of origin, and language usage patterns were collected at the baseline assessment and used as predictors of longitudinal trajectories of cognition. Parallel process mixed effects models were used to examine effects of education and language variables on baseline cognition and rate of cognitive decline. Mixed effects longitudinal models showed that education had strong effects on baseline global cognition and verbal memory but was not related to decline over up to 9 years of longitudinal follow-up. Differences in education effects between subgroups educated in Mexico and in the United States were minor. Monolingual-bilingual language usage was not related to cognitive decline, and bilinguals did not significantly differ from monolingual English speakers on baseline cognitive scores. Hypotheses that higher education and bilingualism protect against late life cognitive decline were not supported and education effects on late-life cognitive trajectories did not substantially differ across U.S.- and Mexico-educated groups. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Variation among heritage speakers: Sequential vs. simultaneous bilinguals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teresa Lee

2013-08-01

Full Text Available This study examines the differences in the grammatical knowledge of two types of heritage speakers of Korean. Early simultaneous bilinguals are exposed to both English and the heritage language from birth, whereas early sequential bilinguals are exposed to the heritage language first and then to English upon schooling. A listening comprehension task involving relative clauses was conducted with 51 beginning-level Korean heritage speakers. The results showed that the early sequential bilinguals exhibited much more accurate knowledge than the early simultaneous bilinguals, who lacked rudimentary knowledge of Korean relative clauses. Drawing on the findings of adult and child Korean L1 data on the acquisition of relative clauses, the performance of each group is discussed with respect to attrition and incomplete acquisition of the heritage language.

Drafting. A Bilingual Text = Dibujo Mecanico. Un Texto Bilingue.

Science.gov (United States)

Los Angeles Unified School District, CA. Div. of Career and Continuing Education.

This bilingual instructional text, one in a series of six texts covering various vocational and technical topics, provides secondary level English and Spanish instruction in drafting. Addressed in the individual units are the following topics: safety, drafting tools and techniques, sketching, geometric construction, working drawings, sectioning,…

SALT 2010 Bilingual S/E Version: A Tool for Assessing the Language Production of Bilingual (Spanish/English) Children

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Jon F.; Iglesias, Aquiles; Rojas, Raul

2010-01-01

Assessing the language development of bilingual children can be a challenge--too often, children in the complex process of learning both Spanish and English are under- or over-diagnosed with language disorders. SLPs can change that with "SALT 2010 Bilingual S/E Version" for grades K-3, the first tool to comprehensively assess children's language…

The Value of Bilingualism in Pupils' Understanding of Scientific Language.

Science.gov (United States)

Kearsey, John; Turner, Sheila

1999-01-01

Argues that, although some bilingual pupils may be at a disadvantage in understanding scientific language, there may be some circumstances where being bilingual is an advantage in understanding scientific language. Presents evidence of circumstances where being bilingual was an advantage and circumstances where it was a disadvantage in…

Probabilistic Elastic Part Model: A Pose-Invariant Representation for Real-World Face Verification.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Haoxiang; Hua, Gang

2018-04-01

Pose variation remains to be a major challenge for real-world face recognition. We approach this problem through a probabilistic elastic part model. We extract local descriptors (e.g., LBP or SIFT) from densely sampled multi-scale image patches. By augmenting each descriptor with its location, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is trained to capture the spatial-appearance distribution of the face parts of all face images in the training corpus, namely the probabilistic elastic part (PEP) model. Each mixture component of the GMM is confined to be a spherical Gaussian to balance the influence of the appearance and the location terms, which naturally defines a part. Given one or multiple face images of the same subject, the PEP-model builds its PEP representation by sequentially concatenating descriptors identified by each Gaussian component in a maximum likelihood sense. We further propose a joint Bayesian adaptation algorithm to adapt the universally trained GMM to better model the pose variations between the target pair of faces/face tracks, which consistently improves face verification accuracy. Our experiments show that we achieve state-of-the-art face verification accuracy with the proposed representations on the Labeled Face in the Wild (LFW) dataset, the YouTube video face database, and the CMU MultiPIE dataset.

Bilingualism in children with developmental disorders: A narrative review.

Science.gov (United States)

Kay-Raining Bird, Elizabeth; Genesee, Fred; Verhoeven, Ludo

Children with developmental disabilities (DD) often need and sometimes opt to become bilingual. The context for bilingual acquisition varies considerably and can impact outcomes. In this first article of the special issue, we review research on the timing and amount of bilingual exposure and outcomes of either direct language intervention or educational placements in three groups of children with DD: Specific Language Impairment (SLI), Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD), and Down syndrome (DS). Children with SLI have been studied more than the other two groups. Findings showed that, on the one hand, the communication skills of simultaneous bilinguals and matched monolinguals with DD were similar for all groups when the stronger language or both languages of the bilingual children were considered. On the other hand, similar to typically developing children, sequential bilinguals and matched monolinguals with SLI (other groups not studied) differed on some but not all second language (L2) measures; even after an extended period of exposure, differences in L2 outcomes were not completely resolved. There is emerging evidence that the typological similarity of the languages being learned influences L2 development in sequential bilinguals, at least in children with SLI. Increasing the frequency of exposure seems to be more related to development of the weaker language in bilinguals with DD than their stronger language. Language intervention studies show the efficacy of interventions but provide little evidence for transfer across languages. In addition, only one (unpublished) study has compared the language and academic outcomes of children with DD in different language education programs. Research on bilingual children with DD in different educational settings/programs is limited, probably as a result of restricted inclusion of these children in some educational settings. We argue for the implementation of full inclusion policies that provide increased access to dual

A probabilistic model of the electron transport in films of nanocrystals arranged in a cubic lattice

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kriegel, Ilka [Department of Nanochemistry, Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia (IIT), via Morego, 30, 16163 Genova (Italy); Scotognella, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.scotognella@polimi.it [Dipartimento di Fisica, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano (Italy); Center for Nano Science and Technology@PoliMi, Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia, Via Giovanni Pascoli, 70/3, 20133 Milan (Italy)

2016-08-01

The fabrication of nanocrystal (NC) films, starting from colloidal dispersion, is a very attractive topic in condensed matter physics community. NC films can be employed for transistors, light emitting diodes, lasers, and solar cells. For this reason the understanding of the film conductivity is of major importance. In this paper we describe a probabilistic model that allows the prediction of the conductivity of NC films, in this case of a cubic lattice of Lead Selenide or Cadmium Selenide NCs. The model is based on the hopping probability between NCs. The results are compared to experimental data reported in literature. - Highlights: • Colloidal nanocrystal (NC) film conductivity is a topic of major importance. • We present a probabilistic model to predict the electron conductivity in NC films. • The model is based on the hopping probability between NCs. • We found a good agreement between the model and data reported in literature.

Bilingualism and increased attention to speech: Evidence from event-related potentials.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuipers, Jan Rouke; Thierry, Guillaume

2015-10-01

A number of studies have shown that from an early age, bilinguals outperform their monolingual peers on executive control tasks. We previously found that bilingual children and adults also display greater attention to unexpected language switches within speech. Here, we investigated the effect of a bilingual upbringing on speech perception in one language. We recorded monolingual and bilingual toddlers' event-related potentials (ERPs) to spoken words preceded by pictures. Words matching the picture prime elicited an early frontal positivity in bilingual participants only, whereas later ERP amplitudes associated with semantic processing did not differ between groups. These results add to the growing body of evidence that bilingualism increases overall attention during speech perception whilst semantic integration is unaffected. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic inversion in priority setting of emerging zoonoses.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kurowicka, D.; Bucura, C.; Cooke, R.; Havelaar, A.H.

2010-01-01

This article presents methodology of applying probabilistic inversion in combination with expert judgment in priority setting problem. Experts rank scenarios according to severity. A linear multi-criteria analysis model underlying the expert preferences is posited. Using probabilistic inversion, a

Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2014-02-14

Feb 14, 2014 ... Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a deterministic model ... aim of this paper is to investigate the increase in the lead-time of flash flood warnings of the SAFFG using probabilistic precipitation forecasts ... The procedure is applied to a real flash flood event and the ensemble-based.

Detection of bilingual plagiarism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frank Zamora R.

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper a computational algorithm for text alignment in the task of automatically detecting bilingual plagiarism is proposed. The method of detecting bilingual plagiarism uses machine translation services, in order to have the documents in question a base language, and apply techniques of monolingual plagiarism. The algorithm was tested with The corpus belonging to the International Competition Plagiarism 2013, with the objective of evaluating the step of detecting monolingual plagiarism. Besides it’s experimented with the collection of texts EUROPARL, a collection of documents pertaining to the meeting the European Parliament, specifically it´s to English and Spanish documents.

Executive function and bilingualism in young and older adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shanna eKousaie

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Research suggests that being bilingual results in advantages on executive control processes and disadvantages on language tasks relative to monolinguals. Furthermore, the executive function advantage is thought to be larger in older than younger adults, suggesting that bilingualism may buffer against age-related changes in executive function. However, there are potential confounds in some of the previous research, as well as inconsistencies in the literature. The goal of the current investigation was to examine the presence of a bilingual advantage in executive control and a bilingual disadvantage on language tasks in the same sample of young and older monolingual anglophones, monolingual francophones, and French/English bilinguals. Participants completed a series of executive function tasks, including a Stroop task, a Simon task, a sustained attention to response task (SART, the Wisconsin Card Sort Test (WCST, and the digit span subtest of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, and language tasks, including the Boston Naming Test (BNT, and category and letter fluency. The results do not demonstrate an unequivocal advantage for bilinguals on executive function tasks and raise questions about the reliability, robustness and/or specificity of previous findings. The results also did not demonstrate a disadvantage for bilinguals on language tasks. Rather, they suggest that there may be an influence of the language environment. It is concluded that additional research is required to fully characterize any language group differences in both executive function and language tasks.

Materiales en Marcha Para El Esfuerzo Bilingue--Bicultural (Materials on the March for the Promotion of Bilingualism), January 1973.

Science.gov (United States)

San Diego City Schools, CA.

This newsletter, intended to promote the cause of bilingual-bicultural education, contains articles on "Chicano Federation and Bilingual-Bicultural Education,""Have I Got a Math Series for You!,""Puerto Rican Social Studies Perspective," and "Multilingual Assessment Program Builds Better Testing Mousetrap." The first article appears in Spanish and…

Using Probabilistic Models to Appraise and Decide on Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance

OpenAIRE

Ley-Borrás, Roberto; Fox, Benjamin D.

2015-01-01

This paper presents an overview of the structure of probabilistic catastrophe risk models, discusses their importance for appraising sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance instruments and strategy, and puts forward a model and a process for improving decision making on the linked disaster risk management strategy and sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance strategy. The pa...

Linguistic Predictors of Cultural Identification in Bilinguals

Science.gov (United States)

Schroeder, Scott R.; Lam, Tuan Q.; Marian, Viorica

2017-01-01

Most of the world's population has knowledge of at least two languages. Many of these bilinguals are also exposed to and identify with at least two cultures. Because language knowledge enables participation in cultural practices and expression of cultural beliefs, bilingual experience and cultural identity are interconnected. However, the specific…

Chinese Translation Errors in English/Chinese Bilingual Children's Picture Books

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Qiaoya; Chen, Xiaoning

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was to review the Chinese translation errors in 31 English/Chinese bilingual children's picture books. While bilingual children's books make definite contributions to language acquisition, few studies have examined the quality of these books, and even fewer have specifically focused on English/Chinese bilingual books.…

Bilingualism and Creativity: Benefits in Convergent Thinking Come with Losses in Divergent Thinking

Science.gov (United States)

Hommel, Bernhard; Colzato, Lorenza S.; Fischer, Rico; Christoffels, Ingrid K.

2011-01-01

Bilingualism is commonly assumed to improve creativity but the mechanisms underlying creative acts, and the way these mechanisms are affected by bilingualism, are not very well understood. We hypothesize that learning to master multiple languages drives individuals toward a relatively focused cognitive-control state that exerts strong top-down impact on information processing and creates strong local competition for selection between cognitive codes. Considering the control requirements posed by creativity tasks tapping into convergent and divergent thinking, this predicts that high-proficient bilinguals should outperform low-proficient bilinguals in convergent thinking, while low-proficient bilinguals might be better in divergent thinking. Comparing low- and high-proficient bilinguals on convergent-thinking and divergent-thinking tasks indeed showed a high-proficient bilingual advantage for convergent thinking but a low-proficient bilingual advantage for fluency in divergent thinking. These findings suggest that bilingualism should not be related to “creativity” as a unitary concept but, rather, to the specific processes and mechanisms that underlie creativity. PMID:22084634

Bilingualism and creativity: Benefits in convergent thinking come with losses in divergent thinking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bernhard eHommel

2011-11-01

Full Text Available Bilingualism is commonly assumed to improve creativity but the mechanisms underlying creative acts, and the way these mechanisms are affected by bilingualism, are not very well understood. We hypothesize that learning to master multiple languages drives individuals towards a strongly focused cognitive-control state that exerts strong top-down impact on information processing and creates strong local competition for selection between cognitive codes. Considering the control requirements posed by creativity tasks tapping into convergent and divergent thinking, this predicts that high-proficient bilinguals should outperform low-proficient bilinguals in convergent thinking, while low-proficient bilinguals might be better in divergent thinking. Comparing low- and high-proficient bilinguals on convergent-thinking and divergent-thinking tasks indeed showed a high-proficient bilingual advantage for convergent thinking but a low-proficient bilingual advantage for fluency in divergent thinking. These findings suggest that bilingualism should not be related to creativity as a unitary concept but, rather, to the specific processes and mechanisms that underlie creativity.

Probabilistic structural analysis of aerospace components using NESSUS

Science.gov (United States)

Shiao, Michael C.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Chamis, Christos C.

1988-01-01

Probabilistic structural analysis of a Space Shuttle main engine turbopump blade is conducted using the computer code NESSUS (numerical evaluation of stochastic structures under stress). The goal of the analysis is to derive probabilistic characteristics of blade response given probabilistic descriptions of uncertainties in blade geometry, material properties, and temperature and pressure distributions. Probability densities are derived for critical blade responses. Risk assessment and failure life analysis is conducted assuming different failure models.

Specificity of the bilingual advantage for memory: Examining cued recall, generalization, and working memory in monolingual, bilingual, and trilingual toddlers

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Natalie Hiromi Brito

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The specificity of the bilingual advantage in memory was examined by testing groups of monolingual, bilingual, and trilingual 24-month-olds on tasks tapping cued recall, memory generalization and working memory. For the cued recall and memory generalization conditions, there was a 24-hour delay between time of encoding and time of retrieval. In addition to the memory tasks, parent-toddler dyads completed a picture-book reading task, in order to observe emotional responsiveness, and a parental report of productive vocabulary. Results indicated no difference between language groups on cued recall, working memory, emotional responsiveness, or productive vocabulary, but a significant difference was found in the memory generalization condition with only the bilingual group outperforming the baseline control group. These results replicate and extend results from past studies (Brito and Barr, 2012; 2014; Brito et al., in press and suggest a bilingual advantage specific to memory generalization.

Specificity of the bilingual advantage for memory: examining cued recall, generalization, and working memory in monolingual, bilingual, and trilingual toddlers.

Science.gov (United States)

Brito, Natalie H; Grenell, Amanda; Barr, Rachel

2014-01-01

The specificity of the bilingual advantage in memory was examined by testing groups of monolingual, bilingual, and trilingual 24-month-olds on tasks tapping cued recall, memory generalization and working memory. For the cued recall and memory generalization conditions, there was a 24-h delay between time of encoding and time of retrieval. In addition to the memory tasks, parent-toddler dyads completed a picture-book reading task, in order to observe emotional responsiveness, and a parental report of productive vocabulary. Results indicated no difference between language groups on cued recall, working memory, emotional responsiveness, or productive vocabulary, but a significant difference was found in the memory generalization condition with only the bilingual group outperforming the baseline control group. These results replicate and extend results from past studies (Brito and Barr, 2012, 2014; Brito et al., 2014) and suggest a bilingual advantage specific to memory generalization.

Probabilistic calculation of dose commitment from uranium mill tailings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-10-01

The report discusses in a general way considerations of uncertainty in relation to probabilistic modelling. An example of a probabilistic calculation applied to the behaviour of uranium mill tailings is given

Bilingualism protects anterior temporal lobe integrity in aging.

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Abutalebi, Jubin; Canini, Matteo; Della Rosa, Pasquale A; Sheung, Lo Ping; Green, David W; Weekes, Brendan S

2014-09-01

Cerebral gray-matter volume (GMV) decreases in normal aging but the extent of the decrease may be experience-dependent. Bilingualism may be one protective factor and in this article we examine its potential protective effect on GMV in a region that shows strong age-related decreases-the left anterior temporal pole. This region is held to function as a conceptual hub and might be expected to be a target of plastic changes in bilingual speakers because of the requirement for these speakers to store and differentiate lexical concepts in 2 languages to guide speech production and comprehension processes. In a whole brain comparison of bilingual speakers (n = 23) and monolingual speakers (n = 23), regressing out confounding factors, we find more extensive age-related decreases in GMV in the monolingual brain and significantly increased GMV in left temporal pole for bilingual speakers. Consistent with a specific neuroprotective effect of bilingualism, region of interest analyses showed a significant positive correlation between naming performance in the second language and GMV in this region. The effect appears to be bilateral though because there was a nonsignificantly different effect of naming performance on GMV in the right temporal pole. Our data emphasize the vulnerability of the temporal pole to normal aging and the value of bilingualism as both a general and specific protective factor to GMV decreases in healthy aging. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Writing and Reading Knowledge of Spanish/English Second-Generation Bilinguals

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Ardila, Alfredo; Garcia, Krystal; Garcia, Melissa; Mejia, Joselyn; Vado, Grace

2017-01-01

Written bilingualism represents a particular type of bilingualism that is not frequently approached. The aim of this study was to investigate the writing and reading abilities of second-generation immigrants, Spanish-English bilinguals in South Florida. 58 participants (36 females, 22 males; 18-39 years of age) were selected. Both parents were…

Cognitive Flexibility in Drawings of Bilingual Children

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Adi-Japha, Esther; Berberich-Artzi, Jennie; Libnawi, Afaf

2010-01-01

A. Karmiloff-Smith's (1990) task of drawing a nonexistent object is considered to be a measure of cognitive flexibility. The notion of earlier emergence of cognitive flexibility in bilingual children motivated the current researchers to request 4- and 5-year-old English-Hebrew and Arabic-Hebrew bilingual children and their monolingual peers to…

New Directions in ASL-English Bilingual Ebooks

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Stone, Adam

2014-01-01

The widespread adoption of smartphones and tablet computers have enabled the rapid creation and distribution of innovative American Sign Language (ASL) and written English bilingual ebooks, aimed primarily at deaf and hard-of-hearing children. These sign-print bilingual ebooks are unique in how they take advantage of digital platforms to display…

Probabilistic forward model for electroencephalography source analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Plis, Sergey M; George, John S; Jun, Sung C; Ranken, Doug M; Volegov, Petr L; Schmidt, David M

2007-01-01

Source localization by electroencephalography (EEG) requires an accurate model of head geometry and tissue conductivity. The estimation of source time courses from EEG or from EEG in conjunction with magnetoencephalography (MEG) requires a forward model consistent with true activity for the best outcome. Although MRI provides an excellent description of soft tissue anatomy, a high resolution model of the skull (the dominant resistive component of the head) requires CT, which is not justified for routine physiological studies. Although a number of techniques have been employed to estimate tissue conductivity, no present techniques provide the noninvasive 3D tomographic mapping of conductivity that would be desirable. We introduce a formalism for probabilistic forward modeling that allows the propagation of uncertainties in model parameters into possible errors in source localization. We consider uncertainties in the conductivity profile of the skull, but the approach is general and can be extended to other kinds of uncertainties in the forward model. We and others have previously suggested the possibility of extracting conductivity of the skull from measured electroencephalography data by simultaneously optimizing over dipole parameters and the conductivity values required by the forward model. Using Cramer-Rao bounds, we demonstrate that this approach does not improve localization results nor does it produce reliable conductivity estimates. We conclude that the conductivity of the skull has to be either accurately measured by an independent technique, or that the uncertainties in the conductivity values should be reflected in uncertainty in the source location estimates

Financial and Real Sector Leading Indicators of Recessions in Brazil Using Probabilistic Models

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Fernando Nascimento de Oliveira

Full Text Available We examine the usefulness of various financial and real sector variables to forecast recessions in Brazil between one and eight quarters ahead. We estimate probabilistic models of recession and select models based on their outof-sample forecasts, using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC function. We find that the predictive out-of-sample ability of several models vary depending on the numbers of quarters ahead to forecast and on the number of regressors used in the model specification. The models selected seem to be relevant to give early warnings of recessions in Brazil.

Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hiemer, S.

2014-07-01

The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

Next-generation probabilistic seismicity forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hiemer, S.

2014-01-01

The development of probabilistic seismicity forecasts is one of the most important tasks of seismologists at present time. Such forecasts form the basis of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, a widely used approach to generate ground motion exceedance maps. These hazard maps guide the development of building codes, and in the absence of the ability to deterministically predict earthquakes, good building and infrastructure planning is key to prevent catastrophes. Probabilistic seismicity forecasts are models that specify the occurrence rate of earthquakes as a function of space, time and magnitude. The models presented in this thesis are time-invariant mainshock occurrence models. Accordingly, the reliable estimation of the spatial and size distribution of seismicity are of crucial importance when constructing such probabilistic forecasts. Thereby we focus on data-driven approaches to infer these distributions, circumventing the need for arbitrarily chosen external parameters and subjective expert decisions. Kernel estimation has been shown to appropriately transform discrete earthquake locations into spatially continuous probability distributions. However, we show that neglecting the information from fault networks constitutes a considerable shortcoming and thus limits the skill of these current seismicity models. We present a novel earthquake rate forecast that applies the kernel-smoothing method to both past earthquake locations and slip rates on mapped crustal faults applied to Californian and European data. Our model is independent from biases caused by commonly used non-objective seismic zonations, which impose artificial borders of activity that are not expected in nature. Studying the spatial variability of the seismicity size distribution is of great importance. The b-value of the well-established empirical Gutenberg-Richter model forecasts the rates of hazard-relevant large earthquakes based on the observed rates of abundant small events. We propose a

Developmental change in tone perception in Mandarin monolingual, English monolingual, and Mandarin-English bilingual infants: Divergences between monolingual and bilingual learners.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Leher; Fu, Charlene S L; Seet, Xian Hui; Tong, Ashley P Y; Wang, Joelle L; Best, Catherine T

2018-09-01

Most languages use lexical tone to discriminate the meanings of words. There has been recent interest in tracking the development of tone categories during infancy. These studies have focused largely on monolingual infants learning either a tone language or a non-tone language. It remains to be seen how bilingual infants learning one tone language (e.g., Mandarin) and one non-tone language (e.g., English) discriminate tones. Here, we examined infants' discrimination of two Mandarin tones pairs: one salient and one subtle. Discrimination was investigated in three groups: Mandarin-English bilinguals, English monolinguals, and Mandarin monolinguals at 6 months and 9 months of age in a cross-sectional design. Results demonstrated relatively strong Mandarin tone discrimination in Mandarin monolinguals, with salient tone discrimination at 6 months and both salient and subtle tone discrimination at 9 months. English monolinguals discriminated neither contrast at 6 months but discriminated the salient contrast at 9 months. Surprisingly, there was no evidence for tone discrimination in Mandarin-English bilingual infants. In a second experiment, 12- and 13-month-old Mandarin-English bilingual and English monolingual infants were tested to determine whether bilinguals would demonstrate tone sensitivity at a later age. Results revealed a lack of tone sensitivity at 12 or 13 months in bilingual infants, yet English monolingual infants were sensitive to both salient and subtle Mandarin tone contrasts at 12 or 13 months. Our findings provide evidence for age-related convergence in Mandarin tone discrimination in English and Mandarin monolingual infants and for a distinct pattern of tone discrimination in bilingual infants. Theoretical implications for phonetic category acquisition are discussed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Language Assessment of a Farsi-Norwegian Bilingual Speaker with Aphasia

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Koumanidi Knoph, Monica I.

2011-01-01

The increased occurrence of strokes combined with the high incidence of bilingualism in many regions of the world has led to an increasing number of bilingual adults with aphasia. The literature on bilingual aphasia shows the need for valid, comprehensive and reliable assessment tools for diagnostic and treatment purposes. In spite of a growing…

Making Bilingualism Work: Developments in Bilingual Education in ASEAN.

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Pakir, Ann

1993-01-01

Systems of bilingual education in three neighboring countries, Singapore, Malaysia, and Brunei Darussalam are examined in an attempt to understand basic issues. These are all Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries that fall into the category of Small Young Countries as discussed in Pakir (1992a). (Contains 43 references.) (JL)

The effect of lifelong bilingualism on regional grey and white matter volume.

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Olsen, Rosanna K; Pangelinan, Melissa M; Bogulski, Cari; Chakravarty, M Mallar; Luk, Gigi; Grady, Cheryl L; Bialystok, Ellen

2015-07-01

Lifelong bilingualism is associated with the delayed diagnosis of dementia, suggesting bilingual experience is relevant to brain health in aging. While the effects of bilingualism on cognitive functions across the lifespan are well documented, less is known about the neural substrates underlying differential behaviour. It is clear that bilingualism affects brain regions that mediate language abilities and that these regions are at least partially overlapping with those that exhibit age-related decline. Moreover, the behavioural advantages observed in bilingualism are generally found in executive function performance, suggesting that the frontal lobes may also be sensitive to bilingualism, which exhibit volume reductions with age. The current study investigated structural differences in the brain of lifelong bilingual older adults (n=14, mean age=70.4) compared with older monolinguals (n=14, mean age=70.6). We employed two analytic approaches: 1) we examined global differences in grey and white matter volumes; and, 2) we examined local differences in volume and cortical thickness of specific regions of interest previously implicated in bilingual/monolingual comparisons (temporal pole) or in aging (entorhinal cortex and hippocampus). We expected bilinguals would exhibit greater volume of the frontal lobe and temporal lobe (grey and white matter), given the importance of these regions in executive and language functions, respectively. We further hypothesized that regions in the medial temporal lobe, which demonstrate early changes in aging and exhibit neural pathology in dementia, would be more preserved in the bilingual group. As predicted, bilinguals exhibit greater frontal lobe white matter compared with monolinguals. Moreover, increasing age was related to decreasing temporal pole cortical thickness in the monolingual group, but no such relationship was observed for bilinguals. Finally, Stroop task performance was positively correlated with frontal lobe white

Relationship between the Onset Age of Bilingualism and Development of Cognitive Control among Nigerians

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Yasir Bdaiwi Jasim Al-Shujairi

2016-02-01

Full Text Available An increasing body of studies suggests that bilingual persons are better than monolinguals on a variety of cognitive measures. Thus, the present study investigates the relationship between the onset age of bilingual and the development of cognitive control among Nigerians. 10 bilingual students studying at University Putra Malaysia have been selected to participate in this study.  They are divided into two groups: 5 early and 5 late bilinguals. The data are collected using online English proficiency test and E-prime software as instruments. Both groups are examined for English proficiency and performance on a flanker task. The result demonstrates that early bilinguals are more proficient in English than late bilinguals. Moreover, early bilingual performs better than late bilingual on flanker task. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that being early active bilinguals tend to have greater advantages in cognitive control and higher language proficiency. Keywords: onset age, bilingualism, and cognitive control

Probabilistic insurance

OpenAIRE

Wakker, P.P.; Thaler, R.H.; Tversky, A.

1997-01-01

textabstractProbabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in the premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. While these preferences are intuitively appealing they are difficult to reconcile with expected utility theory. Under highly plausible assumptions about the utility function, willingness to pay for probabilistic i...

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soltanzadeh, I. [Tehran Univ. (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Inst. of Geophysics; Azadi, M.; Vakili, G.A. [Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), Teheran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2011-07-01

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM), with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME) of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009) over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast. (orig.)

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Soltanzadeh

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA, an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM, with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009 over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast.

Growing hierarchical probabilistic self-organizing graphs.

Science.gov (United States)

López-Rubio, Ezequiel; Palomo, Esteban José

2011-07-01

Since the introduction of the growing hierarchical self-organizing map, much work has been done on self-organizing neural models with a dynamic structure. These models allow adjusting the layers of the model to the features of the input dataset. Here we propose a new self-organizing model which is based on a probabilistic mixture of multivariate Gaussian components. The learning rule is derived from the stochastic approximation framework, and a probabilistic criterion is used to control the growth of the model. Moreover, the model is able to adapt to the topology of each layer, so that a hierarchy of dynamic graphs is built. This overcomes the limitations of the self-organizing maps with a fixed topology, and gives rise to a faithful visualization method for high-dimensional data.

Materiales en Marcha para el Esfuerzo Bilingue--Bicultural (Materials on the March for the Promotion of Bilingualism/Biculturalism). November, 1972.

Science.gov (United States)

San Diego City Schools, CA.

This newsletter seeks to promote the concept of bilingual-bicultural education. Among its articles are "Arguments Against Bilingual Education,""Portuguese Reading Materials on Parade,""A Spanish Omnibus," and "Carrascolendas Makes Debut on Educational Television." There are announcements of the opening of a Portuguese materials resource center in…