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Sample records for bigfoot bayesian alignment

  1. GraphAlignment: Bayesian pairwise alignment of biological networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kolář Michal

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background With increased experimental availability and accuracy of bio-molecular networks, tools for their comparative and evolutionary analysis are needed. A key component for such studies is the alignment of networks. Results We introduce the Bioconductor package GraphAlignment for pairwise alignment of bio-molecular networks. The alignment incorporates information both from network vertices and network edges and is based on an explicit evolutionary model, allowing inference of all scoring parameters directly from empirical data. We compare the performance of our algorithm to an alternative algorithm, Græmlin 2.0. On simulated data, GraphAlignment outperforms Græmlin 2.0 in several benchmarks except for computational complexity. When there is little or no noise in the data, GraphAlignment is slower than Græmlin 2.0. It is faster than Græmlin 2.0 when processing noisy data containing spurious vertex associations. Its typical case complexity grows approximately as O(N2.6. On empirical bacterial protein-protein interaction networks (PIN and gene co-expression networks, GraphAlignment outperforms Græmlin 2.0 with respect to coverage and specificity, albeit by a small margin. On large eukaryotic PIN, Græmlin 2.0 outperforms GraphAlignment. Conclusions The GraphAlignment algorithm is robust to spurious vertex associations, correctly resolves paralogs, and shows very good performance in identification of homologous vertices defined by high vertex and/or interaction similarity. The simplicity and generality of GraphAlignment edge scoring makes the algorithm an appropriate choice for global alignment of networks.

  2. GraphAlignment: Bayesian pairwise alignment of biological networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kolář, Michal; Meier, J.; Mustonen, V.; Lässig, M.; Berg, J.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 6, November 21 (2012) ISSN 1752-0509 Grant - others:Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft(DE) SFB 680; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft(DE) SFB-TR12; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft(DE) BE 2478/2-1 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50520514 Keywords : Graph alignment * Biological networks * Parameter estimation * Bioconductor Subject RIV: EB - Genetics ; Molecular Biology Impact factor: 2.982, year: 2012

  3. Bigfoot Field Manual, Version 2.1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campbell, J.L.; Burrows, S.; Gower, S.T.; Cohen, W.B.

    1999-09-01

    The BigFoot Project is funded by the Earth Science Enterprise to collect and organize data to be used in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Earth Observing System (EOS) Validation Program. The data collected by the BigFoot Project are unique in being ground-based observations coincident with satellite overpasses. In addition to collecting data, the BigFoot project will develop and test new algorithms for scaling point measurements to the same spatial scales as the EOS satellite products. This BigFoot Field Manual will be used to achieve completeness and consistency of data collected at four initial BigFoot sites and at future sites that may collect similar validation data. Therefore, validation datasets submitted to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center that have been compiled in a manner consistent with the field manual will be especially valuable in the validation program.

  4. Model selection in Bayesian segmentation of multiple DNA alignments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldmeadow, Christopher; Keith, Jonathan M

    2011-03-01

    The analysis of multiple sequence alignments is allowing researchers to glean valuable insights into evolution, as well as identify genomic regions that may be functional, or discover novel classes of functional elements. Understanding the distribution of conservation levels that constitutes the evolutionary landscape is crucial to distinguishing functional regions from non-functional. Recent evidence suggests that a binary classification of evolutionary rates is inappropriate for this purpose and finds only highly conserved functional elements. Given that the distribution of evolutionary rates is multi-modal, determining the number of modes is of paramount concern. Through simulation, we evaluate the performance of a number of information criterion approaches derived from MCMC simulations in determining the dimension of a model. We utilize a deviance information criterion (DIC) approximation that is more robust than the approximations from other information criteria, and show our information criteria approximations do not produce superfluous modes when estimating conservation distributions under a variety of circumstances. We analyse the distribution of conservation for a multiple alignment comprising four primate species and mouse, and repeat this on two additional multiple alignments of similar species. We find evidence of six distinct classes of evolutionary rates that appear to be robust to the species used. Source code and data are available at http://dl.dropbox.com/u/477240/changept.zip.

  5. Enhanced optical alignment of a digital micro mirror device through Bayesian adaptive exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wynne, Kevin B.; Knuth, Kevin H.; Petruccelli, Jonathan

    2017-12-01

    As the use of Digital Micro Mirror Devices (DMDs) becomes more prevalent in optics research, the ability to precisely locate the Fourier "footprint" of an image beam at the Fourier plane becomes a pressing need. In this approach, Bayesian adaptive exploration techniques were employed to characterize the size and position of the beam on a DMD located at the Fourier plane. It couples a Bayesian inference engine with an inquiry engine to implement the search. The inquiry engine explores the DMD by engaging mirrors and recording light intensity values based on the maximization of the expected information gain. Using the data collected from this exploration, the Bayesian inference engine updates the posterior probability describing the beam's characteristics. The process is iterated until the beam is located to within the desired precision. This methodology not only locates the center and radius of the beam with remarkable precision but accomplishes the task in far less time than a brute force search. The employed approach has applications to system alignment for both Fourier processing and coded aperture design.

  6. Enhanced optical alignment of a digital micro mirror device through Bayesian adaptive exploration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin B. Wynne

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available As the use of Digital Micro Mirror Devices (DMDs becomes more prevalent in optics research, the ability to precisely locate the Fourier “footprint” of an image beam at the Fourier plane becomes a pressing need. In this approach, Bayesian adaptive exploration techniques were employed to characterize the size and position of the beam on a DMD located at the Fourier plane. It couples a Bayesian inference engine with an inquiry engine to implement the search. The inquiry engine explores the DMD by engaging mirrors and recording light intensity values based on the maximization of the expected information gain. Using the data collected from this exploration, the Bayesian inference engine updates the posterior probability describing the beam’s characteristics. The process is iterated until the beam is located to within the desired precision. This methodology not only locates the center and radius of the beam with remarkable precision but accomplishes the task in far less time than a brute force search. The employed approach has applications to system alignment for both Fourier processing and coded aperture design.

  7. BigFoot Field Data for North American Sites, 1999-2003

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The BigFoot project gathered field data for selected EOS Land Validation Sites in North America from 1999 to 2003. Data collected and derived for varying intervals...

  8. BigFoot Field Data for North American Sites, 1999-2003

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The BigFoot project gathered field data for selected EOS Land Validation Sites in North America from 1999 to 2003. Data collected and derived for varying...

  9. BIGFOOT Meteorological Data for North and South American Sites, 1991-2004

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The BigFoot Project has compiled daily meteorological measurements for nine EOS Land Validation Sites located from Alaska to Brazil from 1991 to 2004. Each site is...

  10. BigFoot Leaf Area Index Surfaces for North and South American Sites, 2000-2003

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The BigFoot project gathered leaf area index (LAI) data for nine EOS Land Validation Sites located from Alaska to Brazil from 2000 to 2003. Each site is...

  11. BigFoot NPP Surfaces for North and South American Sites, 2000-2004

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The BigFoot project gathered Net Primary Production (NPP) data for nine EOS Land Validation Sites located from Alaska to Brazil from 2000 to 2004. Each...

  12. BigFoot GPP Surfaces for North and South American Sites, 2000-2004

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The BigFoot project gathered Gross Primary Production (GPP) data for nine EOS Land Validation Sites located from Alaska to Brazil from 2000 to 2004. Each site is...

  13. BigFoot Leaf Area Index Surfaces for North and South American Sites, 2000-2003

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The BigFoot project gathered leaf area index (LAI) data for nine EOS Land Validation Sites located from Alaska to Brazil from 2000 to 2003. Each site is...

  14. BigFoot Land Cover Surfaces for North and South American Sites, 2000-2003

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The BigFoot project gathered data for nine EOS Land Validation Sites located from Alaska to Brazil from 2000 to 2003. Each site is representative of one or...

  15. BigFoot NPP Surfaces for North and South American Sites, 2000-2004

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The BigFoot project gathered Net Primary Production (NPP) data for nine EOS Land Validation Sites located from Alaska to Brazil from 2000 to 2004. Each site is...

  16. BigFoot GPP Surfaces for North and South American Sites, 2000-2004

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The BigFoot project gathered Gross Primary Production (GPP) data for nine EOS Land Validation Sites located from Alaska to Brazil from 2000 to 2004. Each...

  17. BIGFOOT Meteorological Data for North and South American Sites, 1991-2004

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The BigFoot Project has compiled daily meteorological measurements for nine EOS Land Validation Sites located from Alaska to Brazil from 1991 to 2004. Each...

  18. BigFoot Land Cover Surfaces for North and South American Sites, 2000-2003

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The BigFoot project gathered data for nine EOS Land Validation Sites located from Alaska to Brazil from 2000 to 2003. Each site is representative of one or two...

  19. Mitochondrial phylogeny of the Chrysisignita (Hymenoptera: Chrysididae) species group based on simultaneous Bayesian alignment and phylogeny reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soon, Villu; Saarma, Urmas

    2011-07-01

    The ignita species group within the genus Chrysis includes over 100 cuckoo wasp species, which all lead a parasitic lifestyle and exhibit very similar morphology. The lack of robust, diagnostic morphological characters has hindered phylogenetic reconstructions and contributed to frequent misidentification and inconsistent interpretations of species in this group. Therefore, molecular phylogenetic analysis is the most suitable approach for resolving the phylogeny and taxonomy of this group. We present a well-resolved phylogeny of the Chrysis ignita species group based on mitochondrial sequence data from 41 ingroup and six outgroup taxa. Although our emphasis was on European taxa, we included samples from most of the distribution range of the C. ignita species group to test for monophyly. We used a continuous mitochondrial DNA sequence consisting of 16S rRNA, tRNA(Val), 12S rRNA and ND4. The location of the ND4 gene at the 3' end of this continuous sequence, following 12S rRNA, represents a novel mitochondrial gene arrangement for insects. Due to difficulties in aligning rRNA genes, two different Bayesian approaches were employed to reconstruct phylogeny: (1) using a reduced data matrix including only those positions that could be aligned with confidence; or (2) using the full sequence dataset while estimating alignment and phylogeny simultaneously. In addition maximum-parsimony and maximum-likelihood analyses were performed to test the robustness of the Bayesian approaches. Although all approaches yielded trees with similar topology, considerably more nodes were resolved with analyses using the full data matrix. Phylogenetic analysis supported the monophyly of the C. ignita species group and divided its species into well-supported clades. The resultant phylogeny was only partly in accordance with published subgroupings based on morphology. Our results suggest that several taxa currently treated as subspecies or names treated as synonyms may in fact constitute

  20. AlignerBoost: A Generalized Software Toolkit for Boosting Next-Gen Sequencing Mapping Accuracy Using a Bayesian-Based Mapping Quality Framework.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Zheng

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Accurate mapping of next-generation sequencing (NGS reads to reference genomes is crucial for almost all NGS applications and downstream analyses. Various repetitive elements in human and other higher eukaryotic genomes contribute in large part to ambiguously (non-uniquely mapped reads. Most available NGS aligners attempt to address this by either removing all non-uniquely mapping reads, or reporting one random or "best" hit based on simple heuristics. Accurate estimation of the mapping quality of NGS reads is therefore critical albeit completely lacking at present. Here we developed a generalized software toolkit "AlignerBoost", which utilizes a Bayesian-based framework to accurately estimate mapping quality of ambiguously mapped NGS reads. We tested AlignerBoost with both simulated and real DNA-seq and RNA-seq datasets at various thresholds. In most cases, but especially for reads falling within repetitive regions, AlignerBoost dramatically increases the mapping precision of modern NGS aligners without significantly compromising the sensitivity even without mapping quality filters. When using higher mapping quality cutoffs, AlignerBoost achieves a much lower false mapping rate while exhibiting comparable or higher sensitivity compared to the aligner default modes, therefore significantly boosting the detection power of NGS aligners even using extreme thresholds. AlignerBoost is also SNP-aware, and higher quality alignments can be achieved if provided with known SNPs. AlignerBoost's algorithm is computationally efficient, and can process one million alignments within 30 seconds on a typical desktop computer. AlignerBoost is implemented as a uniform Java application and is freely available at https://github.com/Grice-Lab/AlignerBoost.

  1. AlignerBoost: A Generalized Software Toolkit for Boosting Next-Gen Sequencing Mapping Accuracy Using a Bayesian-Based Mapping Quality Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Qi; Grice, Elizabeth A

    2016-10-01

    Accurate mapping of next-generation sequencing (NGS) reads to reference genomes is crucial for almost all NGS applications and downstream analyses. Various repetitive elements in human and other higher eukaryotic genomes contribute in large part to ambiguously (non-uniquely) mapped reads. Most available NGS aligners attempt to address this by either removing all non-uniquely mapping reads, or reporting one random or "best" hit based on simple heuristics. Accurate estimation of the mapping quality of NGS reads is therefore critical albeit completely lacking at present. Here we developed a generalized software toolkit "AlignerBoost", which utilizes a Bayesian-based framework to accurately estimate mapping quality of ambiguously mapped NGS reads. We tested AlignerBoost with both simulated and real DNA-seq and RNA-seq datasets at various thresholds. In most cases, but especially for reads falling within repetitive regions, AlignerBoost dramatically increases the mapping precision of modern NGS aligners without significantly compromising the sensitivity even without mapping quality filters. When using higher mapping quality cutoffs, AlignerBoost achieves a much lower false mapping rate while exhibiting comparable or higher sensitivity compared to the aligner default modes, therefore significantly boosting the detection power of NGS aligners even using extreme thresholds. AlignerBoost is also SNP-aware, and higher quality alignments can be achieved if provided with known SNPs. AlignerBoost's algorithm is computationally efficient, and can process one million alignments within 30 seconds on a typical desktop computer. AlignerBoost is implemented as a uniform Java application and is freely available at https://github.com/Grice-Lab/AlignerBoost.

  2. Analysis of BigFoot HDC SymCap experiment N161205 on NIF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittrich, T. R.; Baker, K. L.; Thomas, C. A.; Berzak Hopkins, L. F.; Harte, J. A.; Zimmerman, G. B.; Woods, D. T.; Kritcher, A. L.; Ho, D. D.; Weber, C. R.; Kyrala, G.

    2017-10-01

    Analysis of NIF implosion experiment N161205 provides insight into both hohlraum and capsule performance. This experiment used an undoped High Density Carbon (HDC) ablator driven by a BigFoot x-ray profile in a Au hohlraum. Observations from this experiment include DT fusion yield, bang time, DSR, Tion and time-resolved x-ray emission images around bang time. These observations are all consistent with an x-ray spectrum having significantly reduced Au m-band emission that is present in a standard hohlraum simulation. Attempts to justify the observations using several other simulation modifications will be presented. This work was performed under the auspices of the Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  3. BigFoot, a program to reduce risk for indirect drive laser fusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Cliff

    2016-10-01

    The conventional approach to inertial confinement fusion (ICF) is to maximize compressibility, or, total areal density. To achieve high convergence (40), the laser pulse is shaped to launch a weak first shock, which is followed in turn by 2-3 stronger shocks. Importantly, this has an outsized effect on integrated target physics, as the time it takes the shocks to transit the shell is related to hohlraum wall motion and filling, and can contribute to difficulties achieving an implosion that is fast, tunable, and/or predictable. At its outset, this approach attempts to predict the tradeoff in capsule and hohlraum physics in a case that is challenging, and assumes the hotspot can still reach the temperature and density necessary to self-heat (4-5 keV and 0.1-0.2 g/cm2, respectively). Here, we consider an alternate route to fusion ignition, for which the benefits of predictability, control, and coupling could exceed the benefits of convergence. In this approach we avoid uncertainty, and instead, seek a target that is predictable. To simplify hohlraum physics and limit wall motion we keep the implosion time short (6-7 ns), and design the target to avoid laser-plasma instabilities. Whereas the previous focus was on density, it is now on making a 1D hotspot at low convergence (20) that is robust with respect to alpha heating (5-6 keV, and 0.2-0.3 g/cm2) . At present, we estimate the tradeoff between convergence and control is relatively flat, and advantages in coupling enable high velocity (450-500 um/ns) and high yield (1E17). Were the approach successful, we believe it could reduce barriers to progress, as further improvements could be made with small, incremental increases in areal density. Details regarding the ``BigFoot'' platform and pulse are reported, as well as initial experiments. Work that could enable additional improvements in laser power, laser control, and capsule stability will also be discussed. This work was performed under the auspices of the U

  4. Aligning Mental Representations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kano Glückstad, Fumiko

    2013-01-01

    This work introduces a framework that implements asymmetric communication theory proposed by Sperber and Wilson [1]. The framework applies a generalization model known as the Bayesian model of generalization (BMG) [2] for aligning knowledge possessed by two communicating parties. The work focuses...

  5. Bayesian biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Lesaffre, Emmanuel

    2012-01-01

    The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd

  6. Bayesian programming

    CERN Document Server

    Bessiere, Pierre; Ahuactzin, Juan Manuel; Mekhnacha, Kamel

    2013-01-01

    Probability as an Alternative to Boolean LogicWhile logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain DataEmphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean

  7. Introduction to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2017-01-01

    There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...

  8. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2003-01-01

    As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.

  9. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2010-01-01

    Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

  10. Alignment validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    ALICE; ATLAS; CMS; LHCb; Golling, Tobias

    2008-09-06

    The four experiments, ALICE, ATLAS, CMS and LHCb are currently under constructionat CERN. They will study the products of proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider. All experiments are equipped with sophisticated tracking systems, unprecedented in size and complexity. Full exploitation of both the inner detector andthe muon system requires an accurate alignment of all detector elements. Alignmentinformation is deduced from dedicated hardware alignment systems and the reconstruction of charged particles. However, the system is degenerate which means the data is insufficient to constrain all alignment degrees of freedom, so the techniques are prone to converging on wrong geometries. This deficiency necessitates validation and monitoring of the alignment. An exhaustive discussion of means to validate is subject to this document, including examples and plans from all four LHC experiments, as well as other high energy experiments.

  11. Multiple sequence alignment accuracy and phylogenetic inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogden, T Heath; Rosenberg, Michael S

    2006-04-01

    Phylogenies are often thought to be more dependent upon the specifics of the sequence alignment rather than on the method of reconstruction. Simulation of sequences containing insertion and deletion events was performed in order to determine the role that alignment accuracy plays during phylogenetic inference. Data sets were simulated for pectinate, balanced, and random tree shapes under different conditions (ultrametric equal branch length, ultrametric random branch length, nonultrametric random branch length). Comparisons between hypothesized alignments and true alignments enabled determination of two measures of alignment accuracy, that of the total data set and that of individual branches. In general, our results indicate that as alignment error increases, topological accuracy decreases. This trend was much more pronounced for data sets derived from more pectinate topologies. In contrast, for balanced, ultrametric, equal branch length tree shapes, alignment inaccuracy had little average effect on tree reconstruction. These conclusions are based on average trends of many analyses under different conditions, and any one specific analysis, independent of the alignment accuracy, may recover very accurate or inaccurate topologies. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian, in general, outperformed neighbor joining and maximum parsimony in terms of tree reconstruction accuracy. Results also indicated that as the length of the branch and of the neighboring branches increase, alignment accuracy decreases, and the length of the neighboring branches is the major factor in topological accuracy. Thus, multiple-sequence alignment can be an important factor in downstream effects on topological reconstruction.

  12. Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2011-01-01

    A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic

  13. Bayesian statistics an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Peter M

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel

  14. Beyond Alignment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beyond Alignment: Applying Systems Thinking to Architecting Enterprises is a comprehensive reader about how enterprises can apply systems thinking in their enterprise architecture practice, for business transformation and for strategic execution. The book's contributors find that systems thinking...... is a valuable way of thinking about the viable enterprise and how to architect it....

  15. Bayesian Graphical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2016-01-01

    is largely due to the availability of efficient inference algorithms for answering probabilistic queries about the states of the variables in the network. Furthermore, to support the construction of Bayesian network models, learning algorithms are also available. We give an overview of the Bayesian network...

  16. The Bayesian Score Statistic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleibergen, F.R.; Kleijn, R.; Paap, R.

    2000-01-01

    We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative. Unlike

  17. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

  18. ALIGNING JIG

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culver, J.S.; Tunnell, W.C.

    1958-08-01

    A jig or device is described for setting or aligning an opening in one member relative to another member or structure, with a predetermined offset, or it may be used for measuring the amount of offset with which the parts have previously been sct. This jig comprises two blocks rabbeted to each other, with means for securing thc upper block to the lower block. The upper block has fingers for contacting one of the members to be a1igmed, the lower block is designed to ride in grooves within the reference member, and calibration marks are provided to determine the amount of offset. This jig is specially designed to align the collimating slits of a mass spectrometer.

  19. Defending Alignment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephan Schwarz

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available After the rise to power of the German National Socialist Party (January 30, 1933, German academia soon realized that a requirement for “muddling through” was to avoid the stigma of being regarded as “politically unreliable,” thus to appear aligned and loyal to the state policies. The focus is here on the physics community. A rhetoric of alignment developed with the objective to justify collaboration as a rational and morally justified strategy. In the early post-war years, the rhetoric was reoriented to deny any involvement (other than as resistance systematically using a conceptual framework foreshadowing the principles of Cognitive Dissonance Reduction (CDR and the related framework of Rhetorical (Informal Fallacies. This affinity is here studied with reference to statements from the period.

  20. Image alignment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowell, Larry Jonathan

    2014-04-22

    Disclosed is a method and device for aligning at least two digital images. An embodiment may use frequency-domain transforms of small tiles created from each image to identify substantially similar, "distinguishing" features within each of the images, and then align the images together based on the location of the distinguishing features. To accomplish this, an embodiment may create equal sized tile sub-images for each image. A "key" for each tile may be created by performing a frequency-domain transform calculation on each tile. A information-distance difference between each possible pair of tiles on each image may be calculated to identify distinguishing features. From analysis of the information-distance differences of the pairs of tiles, a subset of tiles with high discrimination metrics in relation to other tiles may be located for each image. The subset of distinguishing tiles for each image may then be compared to locate tiles with substantially similar keys and/or information-distance metrics to other tiles of other images. Once similar tiles are located for each image, the images may be aligned in relation to the identified similar tiles.

  1. Erasing errors due to alignment ambiguity when estimating positive selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redelings, Benjamin

    2014-08-01

    Current estimates of diversifying positive selection rely on first having an accurate multiple sequence alignment. Simulation studies have shown that under biologically plausible conditions, relying on a single estimate of the alignment from commonly used alignment software can lead to unacceptably high false-positive rates in detecting diversifying positive selection. We present a novel statistical method that eliminates excess false positives resulting from alignment error by jointly estimating the degree of positive selection and the alignment under an evolutionary model. Our model treats both substitutions and insertions/deletions as sequence changes on a tree and allows site heterogeneity in the substitution process. We conduct inference starting from unaligned sequence data by integrating over all alignments. This approach naturally accounts for ambiguous alignments without requiring ambiguously aligned sites to be identified and removed prior to analysis. We take a Bayesian approach and conduct inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo to integrate over all alignments on a fixed evolutionary tree topology. We introduce a Bayesian version of the branch-site test and assess the evidence for positive selection using Bayes factors. We compare two models of differing dimensionality using a simple alternative to reversible-jump methods. We also describe a more accurate method of estimating the Bayes factor using Rao-Blackwellization. We then show using simulated data that jointly estimating the alignment and the presence of positive selection solves the problem with excessive false positives from erroneous alignments and has nearly the same power to detect positive selection as when the true alignment is known. We also show that samples taken from the posterior alignment distribution using the software BAli-Phy have substantially lower alignment error compared with MUSCLE, MAFFT, PRANK, and FSA alignments. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on

  2. Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

    2018-02-01

    This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

  3. Bayesian methods for data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Carlin, Bradley P.

    2009-01-01

    Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors

  4. Statistics: a Bayesian perspective

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berry, Donald A

    1996-01-01

    ...: it is the only introductory textbook based on Bayesian ideas, it combines concepts and methods, it presents statistics as a means of integrating data into the significant process, it develops ideas...

  5. Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani

    We propose a Bayesian inferential procedure for the noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and incorporating effects of missing variables. In particular, we devise a fast and reliable posterior simulator that yields the predictive distribution...

  6. Practical Bayesian tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granade, Christopher; Combes, Joshua; Cory, D. G.

    2016-03-01

    In recent years, Bayesian methods have been proposed as a solution to a wide range of issues in quantum state and process tomography. State-of-the-art Bayesian tomography solutions suffer from three problems: numerical intractability, a lack of informative prior distributions, and an inability to track time-dependent processes. Here, we address all three problems. First, we use modern statistical methods, as pioneered by Huszár and Houlsby (2012 Phys. Rev. A 85 052120) and by Ferrie (2014 New J. Phys. 16 093035), to make Bayesian tomography numerically tractable. Our approach allows for practical computation of Bayesian point and region estimators for quantum states and channels. Second, we propose the first priors on quantum states and channels that allow for including useful experimental insight. Finally, we develop a method that allows tracking of time-dependent states and estimates the drift and diffusion processes affecting a state. We provide source code and animated visual examples for our methods.

  7. Variational Bayesian Filtering

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šmídl, Václav; Quinn, A.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 56, č. 10 (2008), s. 5020-5030 ISSN 1053-587X R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Bayesian filtering * particle filtering * Variational Bayes Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 2.335, year: 2008 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/AS/smidl-variational bayesian filtering.pdf

  8. Bayesian Networks An Introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Koski, Timo

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include:.: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications.; A detailed description of learni

  9. A guide to Bayesian model selection for ecologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooten, Mevin B.; Hobbs, N.T.

    2015-01-01

    The steady upward trend in the use of model selection and Bayesian methods in ecological research has made it clear that both approaches to inference are important for modern analysis of models and data. However, in teaching Bayesian methods and in working with our research colleagues, we have noticed a general dissatisfaction with the available literature on Bayesian model selection and multimodel inference. Students and researchers new to Bayesian methods quickly find that the published advice on model selection is often preferential in its treatment of options for analysis, frequently advocating one particular method above others. The recent appearance of many articles and textbooks on Bayesian modeling has provided welcome background on relevant approaches to model selection in the Bayesian framework, but most of these are either very narrowly focused in scope or inaccessible to ecologists. Moreover, the methodological details of Bayesian model selection approaches are spread thinly throughout the literature, appearing in journals from many different fields. Our aim with this guide is to condense the large body of literature on Bayesian approaches to model selection and multimodel inference and present it specifically for quantitative ecologists as neutrally as possible. We also bring to light a few important and fundamental concepts relating directly to model selection that seem to have gone unnoticed in the ecological literature. Throughout, we provide only a minimal discussion of philosophy, preferring instead to examine the breadth of approaches as well as their practical advantages and disadvantages. This guide serves as a reference for ecologists using Bayesian methods, so that they can better understand their options and can make an informed choice that is best aligned with their goals for inference.

  10. Statistical assignment of DNA sequences using Bayesian phylogenetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Terkelsen, Kasper Munch; Boomsma, Wouter Krogh; Huelsenbeck, John P.

    2008-01-01

    We provide a new automated statistical method for DNA barcoding based on a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. The method is based on automated database sequence retrieval, alignment, and phylogenetic analysis using a custom-built program for Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. We show on real data......-analysis of previously published ancient DNA data and show that, with high statistical confidence, most of the published sequences are in fact of Neanderthal origin. However, there are several cases of chimeric sequences that are comprised of a combination of both Neanderthal and modern human DNA....

  11. Measuring global credibility with application to local sequence alignment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bobbie-Jo M Webb-Robertson

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Computational biology is replete with high-dimensional (high-D discrete prediction and inference problems, including sequence alignment, RNA structure prediction, phylogenetic inference, motif finding, prediction of pathways, and model selection problems in statistical genetics. Even though prediction and inference in these settings are uncertain, little attention has been focused on the development of global measures of uncertainty. Regardless of the procedure employed to produce a prediction, when a procedure delivers a single answer, that answer is a point estimate selected from the solution ensemble, the set of all possible solutions. For high-D discrete space, these ensembles are immense, and thus there is considerable uncertainty. We recommend the use of Bayesian credibility limits to describe this uncertainty, where a (1-alpha%, 0< or =alpha< or =1, credibility limit is the minimum Hamming distance radius of a hyper-sphere containing (1-alpha% of the posterior distribution. Because sequence alignment is arguably the most extensively used procedure in computational biology, we employ it here to make these general concepts more concrete. The maximum similarity estimator (i.e., the alignment that maximizes the likelihood and the centroid estimator (i.e., the alignment that minimizes the mean Hamming distance from the posterior weighted ensemble of alignments are used to demonstrate the application of Bayesian credibility limits to alignment estimators. Application of Bayesian credibility limits to the alignment of 20 human/rodent orthologous sequence pairs and 125 orthologous sequence pairs from six Shewanella species shows that credibility limits of the alignments of promoter sequences of these species vary widely, and that centroid alignments dependably have tighter credibility limits than traditional maximum similarity alignments.

  12. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corr......This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor......, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates...

  13. Bayesian Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berliner, M.

    2017-12-01

    Bayesian statistical decision theory offers a natural framework for decision-policy making in the presence of uncertainty. Key advantages of the approach include efficient incorporation of information and observations. However, in complicated settings it is very difficult, perhaps essentially impossible, to formalize the mathematical inputs needed in the approach. Nevertheless, using the approach as a template is useful for decision support; that is, organizing and communicating our analyses. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is valuable in quantifying and managing uncertainty such cases. I review some aspects of the idea emphasizing statistical model development and use in the context of sea-level rise.

  14. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates from a high dimensional set of psychological measurements. PMID:25431517

  15. Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

    CERN Document Server

    Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...

  16. Bayesian logistic regression analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an

  17. Bayesian statistical inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno De Finetti

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.

  18. Bayesian optimization for materials science

    CERN Document Server

    Packwood, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science. Bayesian optimization is a promising global optimization technique that originates in the field of machine learning and is starting to gain attention in materials science. For the purpose of materials design, Bayesian optimization can be used to predict new materials with novel properties without extensive screening of candidate materials. For the purpose of computational materials science, Bayesian optimization can be incorporated into first-principles calculations to perform efficient, global structure optimizations. While re...

  19. Bayesian Independent Component Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winther, Ole; Petersen, Kaare Brandt

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...... in a Matlab toolbox, is demonstrated for non-negative decompositions and compared with non-negative matrix factorization.......In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...

  20. Bayesian coronal seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arregui, Iñigo

    2018-01-01

    In contrast to the situation in a laboratory, the study of the solar atmosphere has to be pursued without direct access to the physical conditions of interest. Information is therefore incomplete and uncertain and inference methods need to be employed to diagnose the physical conditions and processes. One of such methods, solar atmospheric seismology, makes use of observed and theoretically predicted properties of waves to infer plasma and magnetic field properties. A recent development in solar atmospheric seismology consists in the use of inversion and model comparison methods based on Bayesian analysis. In this paper, the philosophy and methodology of Bayesian analysis are first explained. Then, we provide an account of what has been achieved so far from the application of these techniques to solar atmospheric seismology and a prospect of possible future extensions.

  1. Bayesian community detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel N

    2012-09-01

    Many networks of scientific interest naturally decompose into clusters or communities with comparatively fewer external than internal links; however, current Bayesian models of network communities do not exert this intuitive notion of communities. We formulate a nonparametric Bayesian model for community detection consistent with an intuitive definition of communities and present a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for inferring the community structure. A Matlab toolbox with the proposed inference procedure is available for download. On synthetic and real networks, our model detects communities consistent with ground truth, and on real networks, it outperforms existing approaches in predicting missing links. This suggests that community structure is an important structural property of networks that should be explicitly modeled.

  2. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  3. Bayesian Hypothesis Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, Stephen A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sigeti, David E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-11-15

    These are a set of slides about Bayesian hypothesis testing, where many hypotheses are tested. The conclusions are the following: The value of the Bayes factor obtained when using the median of the posterior marginal is almost the minimum value of the Bayes factor. The value of τ2 which minimizes the Bayes factor is a reasonable choice for this parameter. This allows a likelihood ratio to be computed with is the least favorable to H0.

  4. Bayesian networks in reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langseth, Helge [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, N-7491 Trondheim (Norway)]. E-mail: helgel@math.ntnu.no; Portinale, Luigi [Department of Computer Science, University of Eastern Piedmont ' Amedeo Avogadro' , 15100 Alessandria (Italy)]. E-mail: portinal@di.unipmn.it

    2007-01-15

    Over the last decade, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become a popular tool for modelling many kinds of statistical problems. We have also seen a growing interest for using BNs in the reliability analysis community. In this paper we will discuss the properties of the modelling framework that make BNs particularly well suited for reliability applications, and point to ongoing research that is relevant for practitioners in reliability.

  5. Subjective Bayesian Beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.

    2015-01-01

    A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimental...... economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule....

  6. Approximate Bayesian recursive estimation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kárný, Miroslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 285, č. 1 (2014), s. 100-111 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Approximate parameter estimation * Bayesian recursive estimation * Kullback–Leibler divergence * Forgetting Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.038, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/AS/karny-0425539.pdf

  7. Bayesian theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A

    2013-01-01

    The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...

  8. Bayesian analysis in plant pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mila, A L; Carriquiry, A L

    2004-09-01

    ABSTRACT Bayesian methods are currently much discussed and applied in several disciplines from molecular biology to engineering. Bayesian inference is the process of fitting a probability model to a set of data and summarizing the results via probability distributions on the parameters of the model and unobserved quantities such as predictions for new observations. In this paper, after a short introduction of Bayesian inference, we present the basic features of Bayesian methodology using examples from sequencing genomic fragments and analyzing microarray gene-expressing levels, reconstructing disease maps, and designing experiments.

  9. The construction and use of log-odds substitution scores for multiple sequence alignment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen F Altschul

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Most pairwise and multiple sequence alignment programs seek alignments with optimal scores. Central to defining such scores is selecting a set of substitution scores for aligned amino acids or nucleotides. For local pairwise alignment, substitution scores are implicitly of log-odds form. We now extend the log-odds formalism to multiple alignments, using Bayesian methods to construct "BILD" ("Bayesian Integral Log-odds" substitution scores from prior distributions describing columns of related letters. This approach has been used previously only to define scores for aligning individual sequences to sequence profiles, but it has much broader applicability. We describe how to calculate BILD scores efficiently, and illustrate their uses in Gibbs sampling optimization procedures, gapped alignment, and the construction of hidden Markov model profiles. BILD scores enable automated selection of optimal motif and domain model widths, and can inform the decision of whether to include a sequence in a multiple alignment, and the selection of insertion and deletion locations. Other applications include the classification of related sequences into subfamilies, and the definition of profile-profile alignment scores. Although a fully realized multiple alignment program must rely upon more than substitution scores, many existing multiple alignment programs can be modified to employ BILD scores. We illustrate how simple BILD score based strategies can enhance the recognition of DNA binding domains, including the Api-AP2 domain in Toxoplasma gondii and Plasmodium falciparum.

  10. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    G.Gomez.

    Since June of 2009, the muon alignment group has focused on providing new alignment constants and on finalizing the hardware alignment reconstruction. Alignment constants for DTs and CSCs were provided for CRAFT09 data reprocessing. For DT chambers, the track-based alignment was repeated using CRAFT09 cosmic ray muons and validated using segment extrapolation and split cosmic tools. One difference with respect to the previous alignment is that only five degrees of freedom were aligned, leaving the rotation around the local x-axis to be better determined by the hardware system. Similarly, DT chambers poorly aligned by tracks (due to limited statistics) were aligned by a combination of photogrammetry and hardware-based alignment. For the CSC chambers, the hardware system provided alignment in global z and rotations about local x. Entire muon endcap rings were further corrected in the transverse plane (global x and y) by the track-based alignment. Single chamber track-based alignment suffers from poor statistic...

  11. Applied Bayesian modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Congdon, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and data analysis, with an emphasis on the interpretation of real data sets. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, this book aims to make a wide range of statistical modeling applications accessible using tested code that can be readily adapted to the reader's own applications. The second edition has been thoroughly reworked and updated to take account of advances in the field. A new set of worked examples is included. The novel aspect of the first edition was the coverage of statistical modeling using WinBU

  12. Bayesian nonparametric data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter; Jara, Alejandro; Hanson, Tim

    2015-01-01

    This book reviews nonparametric Bayesian methods and models that have proven useful in the context of data analysis. Rather than providing an encyclopedic review of probability models, the book’s structure follows a data analysis perspective. As such, the chapters are organized by traditional data analysis problems. In selecting specific nonparametric models, simpler and more traditional models are favored over specialized ones. The discussed methods are illustrated with a wealth of examples, including applications ranging from stylized examples to case studies from recent literature. The book also includes an extensive discussion of computational methods and details on their implementation. R code for many examples is included in on-line software pages.

  13. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    G. Gomez and J. Pivarski

    2011-01-01

    Alignment efforts in the first few months of 2011 have shifted away from providing alignment constants (now a well established procedure) and focussed on some critical remaining issues. The single most important task left was to understand the systematic differences observed between the track-based (TB) and hardware-based (HW) barrel alignments: a systematic difference in r-φ and in z, which grew as a function of z, and which amounted to ~4-5 mm differences going from one end of the barrel to the other. This difference is now understood to be caused by the tracker alignment. The systematic differences disappear when the track-based barrel alignment is performed using the new “twist-free” tracker alignment. This removes the largest remaining source of systematic uncertainty. Since the barrel alignment is based on hardware, it does not suffer from the tracker twist. However, untwisting the tracker causes endcap disks (which are aligned ...

  14. Classification using Bayesian neural nets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.C. Bioch (Cor); O. van der Meer; R. Potharst (Rob)

    1995-01-01

    textabstractRecently, Bayesian methods have been proposed for neural networks to solve regression and classification problems. These methods claim to overcome some difficulties encountered in the standard approach such as overfitting. However, an implementation of the full Bayesian approach to

  15. Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 1)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2018-01-01

    framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

  16. Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 2)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2018-01-01

    framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

  17. The Bayesian Covariance Lasso.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khondker, Zakaria S; Zhu, Hongtu; Chu, Haitao; Lin, Weili; Ibrahim, Joseph G

    2013-04-01

    Estimation of sparse covariance matrices and their inverse subject to positive definiteness constraints has drawn a lot of attention in recent years. The abundance of high-dimensional data, where the sample size ( n ) is less than the dimension ( d ), requires shrinkage estimation methods since the maximum likelihood estimator is not positive definite in this case. Furthermore, when n is larger than d but not sufficiently larger, shrinkage estimation is more stable than maximum likelihood as it reduces the condition number of the precision matrix. Frequentist methods have utilized penalized likelihood methods, whereas Bayesian approaches rely on matrix decompositions or Wishart priors for shrinkage. In this paper we propose a new method, called the Bayesian Covariance Lasso (BCLASSO), for the shrinkage estimation of a precision (covariance) matrix. We consider a class of priors for the precision matrix that leads to the popular frequentist penalties as special cases, develop a Bayes estimator for the precision matrix, and propose an efficient sampling scheme that does not precalculate boundaries for positive definiteness. The proposed method is permutation invariant and performs shrinkage and estimation simultaneously for non-full rank data. Simulations show that the proposed BCLASSO performs similarly as frequentist methods for non-full rank data.

  18. Approximate Bayesian computation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikael Sunnåker

    Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and approximations whose impact needs to be carefully assessed. Furthermore, the wider application domain of ABC exacerbates the challenges of parameter estimation and model selection. ABC has rapidly gained popularity over the last years and in particular for the analysis of complex problems arising in biological sciences (e.g., in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology, and systems biology.

  19. Bayesian inference with ecological applications

    CERN Document Server

    Link, William A

    2009-01-01

    This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...

  20. Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asad Ali

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an  overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.

  1. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    G.Gomez

    2010-01-01

    The main developments in muon alignment since March 2010 have been the production, approval and deployment of alignment constants for the ICHEP data reprocessing. In the barrel, a new geometry, combining information from both hardware and track-based alignment systems, has been developed for the first time. The hardware alignment provides an initial DT geometry, which is then anchored as a rigid solid, using the link alignment system, to a reference frame common to the tracker. The “GlobalPositionRecords” for both the Tracker and Muon systems are being used for the first time, and the initial tracker-muon relative positioning, based on the link alignment, yields good results within the photogrammetry uncertainties of the Tracker and alignment ring positions. For the first time, the optical and track-based alignments show good agreement between them; the optical alignment being refined by the track-based alignment. The resulting geometry is the most complete to date, aligning all 250 DTs, ...

  2. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    Z. Szillasi and G. Gomez.

    2013-01-01

    When CMS is opened up, major components of the Link and Barrel Alignment systems will be removed. This operation, besides allowing for maintenance of the detector underneath, is needed for making interventions that will reinforce the alignment measurements and make the operation of the alignment system more reliable. For that purpose and also for their general maintenance and recalibration, the alignment components will be transferred to the Alignment Lab situated in the ISR area. For the track-based alignment, attention is focused on the determination of systematic uncertainties, which have become dominant, since now there is a large statistics of muon tracks. This will allow for an improved Monte Carlo misalignment scenario and updated alignment position errors, crucial for high-momentum muon analysis such as Z′ searches.

  3. BEAST: Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drummond, Alexei J; Rambaut, Andrew

    2007-11-08

    The evolutionary analysis of molecular sequence variation is a statistical enterprise. This is reflected in the increased use of probabilistic models for phylogenetic inference, multiple sequence alignment, and molecular population genetics. Here we present BEAST: a fast, flexible software architecture for Bayesian analysis of molecular sequences related by an evolutionary tree. A large number of popular stochastic models of sequence evolution are provided and tree-based models suitable for both within- and between-species sequence data are implemented. BEAST version 1.4.6 consists of 81000 lines of Java source code, 779 classes and 81 packages. It provides models for DNA and protein sequence evolution, highly parametric coalescent analysis, relaxed clock phylogenetics, non-contemporaneous sequence data, statistical alignment and a wide range of options for prior distributions. BEAST source code is object-oriented, modular in design and freely available at http://beast-mcmc.googlecode.com/ under the GNU LGPL license. BEAST is a powerful and flexible evolutionary analysis package for molecular sequence variation. It also provides a resource for the further development of new models and statistical methods of evolutionary analysis.

  4. BEAST: Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drummond Alexei J

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The evolutionary analysis of molecular sequence variation is a statistical enterprise. This is reflected in the increased use of probabilistic models for phylogenetic inference, multiple sequence alignment, and molecular population genetics. Here we present BEAST: a fast, flexible software architecture for Bayesian analysis of molecular sequences related by an evolutionary tree. A large number of popular stochastic models of sequence evolution are provided and tree-based models suitable for both within- and between-species sequence data are implemented. Results BEAST version 1.4.6 consists of 81000 lines of Java source code, 779 classes and 81 packages. It provides models for DNA and protein sequence evolution, highly parametric coalescent analysis, relaxed clock phylogenetics, non-contemporaneous sequence data, statistical alignment and a wide range of options for prior distributions. BEAST source code is object-oriented, modular in design and freely available at http://beast-mcmc.googlecode.com/ under the GNU LGPL license. Conclusion BEAST is a powerful and flexible evolutionary analysis package for molecular sequence variation. It also provides a resource for the further development of new models and statistical methods of evolutionary analysis.

  5. Bayesian nonparametric hierarchical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunson, David B

    2009-04-01

    In biomedical research, hierarchical models are very widely used to accommodate dependence in multivariate and longitudinal data and for borrowing of information across data from different sources. A primary concern in hierarchical modeling is sensitivity to parametric assumptions, such as linearity and normality of the random effects. Parametric assumptions on latent variable distributions can be challenging to check and are typically unwarranted, given available prior knowledge. This article reviews some recent developments in Bayesian nonparametric methods motivated by complex, multivariate and functional data collected in biomedical studies. The author provides a brief review of flexible parametric approaches relying on finite mixtures and latent class modeling. Dirichlet process mixture models are motivated by the need to generalize these approaches to avoid assuming a fixed finite number of classes. Focusing on an epidemiology application, the author illustrates the practical utility and potential of nonparametric Bayes methods.

  6. Bayesian grid matching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    2003-01-01

    A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which...... represents the spatial coordinates of the grid nodes. Knowledge of how grid nodes are depicted in the observed image is described through the observation model. The prior consists of a node prior and an arc (edge) prior, both modeled as Gaussian MRFs. The node prior models variations in the positions of grid...... nodes and the arc prior models variations in row and column spacing across the grid. Grid matching is done by placing an initial rough grid over the image and applying an ensemble annealing scheme to maximize the posterior distribution of the grid. The method can be applied to noisy images with missing...

  7. Bayesian supervised dimensionality reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gönen, Mehmet

    2013-12-01

    Dimensionality reduction is commonly used as a preprocessing step before training a supervised learner. However, coupled training of dimensionality reduction and supervised learning steps may improve the prediction performance. In this paper, we introduce a simple and novel Bayesian supervised dimensionality reduction method that combines linear dimensionality reduction and linear supervised learning in a principled way. We present both Gibbs sampling and variational approximation approaches to learn the proposed probabilistic model for multiclass classification. We also extend our formulation toward model selection using automatic relevance determination in order to find the intrinsic dimensionality. Classification experiments on three benchmark data sets show that the new model significantly outperforms seven baseline linear dimensionality reduction algorithms on very low dimensions in terms of generalization performance on test data. The proposed model also obtains the best results on an image recognition task in terms of classification and retrieval performances.

  8. Bayesian Geostatistical Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Diggle, Peter; Lophaven, Søren Nymand

    2006-01-01

    This paper describes the use of model-based geostatistics for choosing the set of sampling locations, collectively called the design, to be used in a geostatistical analysis. Two types of design situation are considered. These are retrospective design, which concerns the addition of sampling...... locations to, or deletion of locations from, an existing design, and prospective design, which consists of choosing positions for a new set of sampling locations. We propose a Bayesian design criterion which focuses on the goal of efficient spatial prediction whilst allowing for the fact that model...... parameter values are unknown. The results show that in this situation a wide range of interpoint distances should be included in the design, and the widely used regular design is often not the best choice....

  9. Control rod housing alignment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, R.C.; Deaver, G.A.; Punches, J.R.; Singleton, G.E.; Erbes, J.G.; Offer, H.P.

    1990-01-01

    This patent describes a process for measuring the vertical alignment between a hole in a core plate and the top of a corresponding control rod drive housing within a boiling water reactor. It comprises: providing an alignment apparatus. The alignment apparatus including a lower end for fitting to the top of the control rod drive housing; an upper end for fitting to the aperture in the core plate, and a leveling means attached to the alignment apparatus to read out the difference in angularity with respect to gravity, and alignment pin registering means for registering to the alignment pin on the core plate; lowering the alignment device on a depending support through a lattice position in the top guide through the hole in the core plate down into registered contact with the top of the control rod drive housing; registering the upper end to the sides of the hole in the core plate; registering the alignment pin registering means to an alignment pin on the core plate to impart to the alignment device the required angularity; and reading out the angle of the control rod drive housing with respect to the hole in the core plate through the leveling devices whereby the angularity of the top of the control rod drive housing with respect to the hole in the core plate can be determined

  10. Bayesian adaptive methods for clinical trials

    CERN Document Server

    Berry, Scott M; Muller, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Already popular in the analysis of medical device trials, adaptive Bayesian designs are increasingly being used in drug development for a wide variety of diseases and conditions, from Alzheimer's disease and multiple sclerosis to obesity, diabetes, hepatitis C, and HIV. Written by leading pioneers of Bayesian clinical trial designs, Bayesian Adaptive Methods for Clinical Trials explores the growing role of Bayesian thinking in the rapidly changing world of clinical trial analysis. The book first summarizes the current state of clinical trial design and analysis and introduces the main ideas and potential benefits of a Bayesian alternative. It then gives an overview of basic Bayesian methodological and computational tools needed for Bayesian clinical trials. With a focus on Bayesian designs that achieve good power and Type I error, the next chapters present Bayesian tools useful in early (Phase I) and middle (Phase II) clinical trials as well as two recent Bayesian adaptive Phase II studies: the BATTLE and ISP...

  11. Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia

    2015-01-01

    Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on

  12. Interference Alignment and Cancellation

    OpenAIRE

    Gollakota, Shyamnath; Perli, Samuel David; Katabi, Dina

    2009-01-01

    The throughput of existing MIMO LANs is limited by the number of antennas on the AP. This paper shows how to overcome this limit. It presents interference alignment and cancellation (IAC), a new approach for decoding concurrent sender-receiver pairs in MIMO networks. IAC synthesizes two signal processing techniques, interference alignment and interference cancellation, showing that the combination applies to scenarios where neither interference alignment nor cancellation applies alone. We sho...

  13. Bayesian Inference: with ecological applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.

    2010-01-01

    This text provides a mathematically rigorous yet accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference with relevant examples that will be of interest to biologists working in the fields of ecology, wildlife management and environmental studies as well as students in advanced undergraduate statistics.. This text opens the door to Bayesian inference, taking advantage of modern computational efficiencies and easily accessible software to evaluate complex hierarchical models.

  14. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    OpenAIRE

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the re...

  15. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Document Server

    G.Gomez

    2010-01-01

    Most of the work in muon alignment since December 2009 has focused on the geometry reconstruction from the optical systems and improvements in the internal alignment of the DT chambers. The barrel optical alignment system has progressively evolved from reconstruction of single active planes to super-planes (December 09) to a new, full barrel reconstruction. Initial validation studies comparing this full barrel alignment at 0T with photogrammetry provide promising results. In addition, the method has been applied to CRAFT09 data, and the resulting alignment at 3.8T yields residuals from tracks (extrapolated from the tracker) which look smooth, suggesting a good internal barrel alignment with a small overall offset with respect to the tracker. This is a significant improvement, which should allow the optical system to provide a start-up alignment for 2010. The end-cap optical alignment has made considerable progress in the analysis of transfer line data. The next set of alignment constants for CSCs will there...

  16. Tidal alignment of galaxies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blazek, Jonathan; Vlah, Zvonimir; Seljak, Uroš

    2015-08-01

    We develop an analytic model for galaxy intrinsic alignments (IA) based on the theory of tidal alignment. We calculate all relevant nonlinear corrections at one-loop order, including effects from nonlinear density evolution, galaxy biasing, and source density weighting. Contributions from density weighting are found to be particularly important and lead to bias dependence of the IA amplitude, even on large scales. This effect may be responsible for much of the luminosity dependence in IA observations. The increase in IA amplitude for more highly biased galaxies reflects their locations in regions with large tidal fields. We also consider the impact of smoothing the tidal field on halo scales. We compare the performance of this consistent nonlinear model in describing the observed alignment of luminous red galaxies with the linear model as well as the frequently used "nonlinear alignment model," finding a significant improvement on small and intermediate scales. We also show that the cross-correlation between density and IA (the "GI" term) can be effectively separated into source alignment and source clustering, and we accurately model the observed alignment down to the one-halo regime using the tidal field from the fully nonlinear halo-matter cross correlation. Inside the one-halo regime, the average alignment of galaxies with density tracers no longer follows the tidal alignment prediction, likely reflecting nonlinear processes that must be considered when modeling IA on these scales. Finally, we discuss tidal alignment in the context of cosmic shear measurements.

  17. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    Gervasio Gomez

    The main progress of the muon alignment group since March has been in the refinement of both the track-based alignment for the DTs and the hardware-based alignment for the CSCs. For DT track-based alignment, there has been significant improvement in the internal alignment of the superlayers inside the DTs. In particular, the distance between superlayers is now corrected, eliminating the residual dependence on track impact angles, and good agreement is found between survey and track-based corrections. The new internal geometry has been approved to be included in the forthcoming reprocessing of CRAFT samples. The alignment of DTs with respect to the tracker using global tracks has also improved significantly, since the algorithms use the latest B-field mapping, better run selection criteria, optimized momentum cuts, and an alignment is now obtained for all six degrees of freedom (three spatial coordinates and three rotations) of the aligned DTs. This work is ongoing and at a stage where we are trying to unders...

  18. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    G.Gomez

    2011-01-01

    The Muon Alignment work now focuses on producing a new track-based alignment with higher track statistics, making systematic studies between the results of the hardware and track-based alignment methods and aligning the barrel using standalone muon tracks. Currently, the muon track reconstruction software uses a hardware-based alignment in the barrel (DT) and a track-based alignment in the endcaps (CSC). An important task is to assess the muon momentum resolution that can be achieved using the current muon alignment, especially for highly energetic muons. For this purpose, cosmic ray muons are used, since the rate of high-energy muons from collisions is very low and the event statistics are still limited. Cosmics have the advantage of higher statistics in the pT region above 100 GeV/c, but they have the disadvantage of having a mostly vertical topology, resulting in a very few global endcap muons. Only the barrel alignment has therefore been tested so far. Cosmic muons traversing CMS from top to bottom are s...

  19. Hole-Aligning Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Frank A.; Saude, Frank; Sep, Martin J.

    1996-01-01

    Tool designed for use in aligning holes in plates or other structural members to be joined by bolt through holes. Holes aligned without exerting forces perpendicular to planes of holes. Tool features screw-driven-wedge design similar to (but simpler than) that of some automotive exhaust-pipe-expanding tools.

  20. Alignement experience in STAR

    CERN Document Server

    Margetis, S; Lauret, J; Perevozchikov, V; Van Buren, G; Bouchef, J

    2007-01-01

    The STAR experiment at RHIC uses four layers of silicon strip and silicon drift detectors for secondary vertex reconstruction. An attempt for a direct charm meson measurement put stringent requirements on alignment and calibration. We report on recent alignment and drift velocity calibration work performed on the inner silicon tracking system.

  1. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    G. Gomez

    Since December, the muon alignment community has focused on analyzing the data recorded so far in order to produce new DT and CSC Alignment Records for the second reprocessing of CRAFT data. Two independent algorithms were developed which align the DT chambers using global tracks, thus providing, for the first time, a relative alignment of the barrel with respect to the tracker. These results are an important ingredient for the second CRAFT reprocessing and allow, for example, a more detailed study of any possible mis-modelling of the magnetic field in the muon spectrometer. Both algorithms are constructed in such a way that the resulting alignment constants are not affected, to first order, by any such mis-modelling. The CSC chambers have not yet been included in this global track-based alignment due to a lack of statistics, since only a few cosmics go through the tracker and the CSCs. A strategy exists to align the CSCs using the barrel as a reference until collision tracks become available. Aligning the ...

  2. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    G. Gomez

    2011-01-01

    A new set of muon alignment constants was approved in August. The relative position between muon chambers is essentially unchanged, indicating good detector stability. The main changes concern the global positioning of the barrel and of the endcap rings to match the new Tracker geometry. Detailed studies of the differences between track-based and optical alignment of DTs have proven to be a valuable tool for constraining Tracker alignment weak modes, and this information is now being used as part of the alignment procedure. In addition to the “split-cosmic” analysis used to investigate the muon momentum resolution at high momentum, a new procedure based on reconstructing the invariant mass of di-muons from boosted Zs is under development. Both procedures show an improvement in the momentum precision of Global Muons with respect to Tracker-only Muons. Recent developments in track-based alignment include a better treatment of the tails of residual distributions and accounting for correla...

  3. Bayesian seismic AVO inversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buland, Arild

    2002-07-01

    A new linearized AVO inversion technique is developed in a Bayesian framework. The objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity and density. Distributions for other elastic parameters can also be assessed, for example acoustic impedance, shear impedance and P-wave to S-wave velocity ratio. The inversion algorithm is based on the convolutional model and a linearized weak contrast approximation of the Zoeppritz equation. The solution is represented by a Gaussian posterior distribution with explicit expressions for the posterior expectation and covariance, hence exact prediction intervals for the inverted parameters can be computed under the specified model. The explicit analytical form of the posterior distribution provides a computationally fast inversion method. Tests on synthetic data show that all inverted parameters were almost perfectly retrieved when the noise approached zero. With realistic noise levels, acoustic impedance was the best determined parameter, while the inversion provided practically no information about the density. The inversion algorithm has also been tested on a real 3-D dataset from the Sleipner Field. The results show good agreement with well logs but the uncertainty is high. The stochastic model includes uncertainties of both the elastic parameters, the wavelet and the seismic and well log data. The posterior distribution is explored by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. The inversion algorithm has been tested on a seismic line from the Heidrun Field with two wells located on the line. The uncertainty of the estimated wavelet is low. In the Heidrun examples the effect of including uncertainty of the wavelet and the noise level was marginal with respect to the AVO inversion results. We have developed a 3-D linearized AVO inversion method with spatially coupled model parameters where the objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S

  4. Bayesian microsaccade detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihali, Andra; van Opheusden, Bas; Ma, Wei Ji

    2017-01-01

    Microsaccades are high-velocity fixational eye movements, with special roles in perception and cognition. The default microsaccade detection method is to determine when the smoothed eye velocity exceeds a threshold. We have developed a new method, Bayesian microsaccade detection (BMD), which performs inference based on a simple statistical model of eye positions. In this model, a hidden state variable changes between drift and microsaccade states at random times. The eye position is a biased random walk with different velocity distributions for each state. BMD generates samples from the posterior probability distribution over the eye state time series given the eye position time series. Applied to simulated data, BMD recovers the “true” microsaccades with fewer errors than alternative algorithms, especially at high noise. Applied to EyeLink eye tracker data, BMD detects almost all the microsaccades detected by the default method, but also apparent microsaccades embedded in high noise—although these can also be interpreted as false positives. Next we apply the algorithms to data collected with a Dual Purkinje Image eye tracker, whose higher precision justifies defining the inferred microsaccades as ground truth. When we add artificial measurement noise, the inferences of all algorithms degrade; however, at noise levels comparable to EyeLink data, BMD recovers the “true” microsaccades with 54% fewer errors than the default algorithm. Though unsuitable for online detection, BMD has other advantages: It returns probabilities rather than binary judgments, and it can be straightforwardly adapted as the generative model is refined. We make our algorithm available as a software package. PMID:28114483

  5. Kernel Bayesian ART and ARTMAP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuyama, Naoki; Loo, Chu Kiong; Dawood, Farhan

    2018-02-01

    Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) is one of the successful approaches to resolving "the plasticity-stability dilemma" in neural networks, and its supervised learning model called ARTMAP is a powerful tool for classification. Among several improvements, such as Fuzzy or Gaussian based models, the state of art model is Bayesian based one, while solving the drawbacks of others. However, it is known that the Bayesian approach for the high dimensional and a large number of data requires high computational cost, and the covariance matrix in likelihood becomes unstable. This paper introduces Kernel Bayesian ART (KBA) and ARTMAP (KBAM) by integrating Kernel Bayes' Rule (KBR) and Correntropy Induced Metric (CIM) to Bayesian ART (BA) and ARTMAP (BAM), respectively, while maintaining the properties of BA and BAM. The kernel frameworks in KBA and KBAM are able to avoid the curse of dimensionality. In addition, the covariance-free Bayesian computation by KBR provides the efficient and stable computational capability to KBA and KBAM. Furthermore, Correntropy-based similarity measurement allows improving the noise reduction ability even in the high dimensional space. The simulation experiments show that KBA performs an outstanding self-organizing capability than BA, and KBAM provides the superior classification ability than BAM, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Alignment for CSR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Shoujin; Man Kaidi; Guo Yizhen; Cai Guozhu; Guo Yuhui

    2002-01-01

    Cooled Storage Ring of Heavy Ion Research Facility in Lanzhou (HIRFL-CSR) belongs to China great scientific project in China. The alignment for it is very difficult because of very large area and very high accuracy. For the special case in HIRFL-CSR, some new methods and new instruments are used, including the construction of survey control network, the usage of laser tracker, and CSR alignment database system with applications developed to store and analyze data. The author describes the whole procedure of CSR alignment

  7. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  8. Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS

    CERN Document Server

    Ntzoufras, Ioannis

    2009-01-01

    A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...

  9. 3D Bayesian contextual classifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Rasmus

    2000-01-01

    We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours.......We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours....

  10. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Linda

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary...... configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for the salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...

  11. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

    In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary...... configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...

  12. Bayesian variable selection in regression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitchell, T.J.; Beauchamp, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the selection of subsets of ''predictor'' variables in a linear regression model for the prediction of a ''dependent'' variable. We take a Bayesian approach and assign a probability distribution to the dependent variable through a specification of prior distributions for the unknown parameters in the regression model. The appropriate posterior probabilities are derived for each submodel and methods are proposed for evaluating the family of prior distributions. Examples are given that show the application of the Bayesian methodology. 23 refs., 3 figs.

  13. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees a...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....... and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last...

  14. Bayesian methods for proteomic biomarker development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belinda Hernández

    2015-12-01

    In this review we provide an introduction to Bayesian inference and demonstrate some of the advantages of using a Bayesian framework. We summarize how Bayesian methods have been used previously in proteomics and other areas of bioinformatics. Finally, we describe some popular and emerging Bayesian models from the statistical literature and provide a worked tutorial including code snippets to show how these methods may be applied for the evaluation of proteomic biomarkers.

  15. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    G.Gomez

    Since September, the muon alignment system shifted from a mode of hardware installation and commissioning to operation and data taking. All three optical subsystems (Barrel, Endcap and Link alignment) have recorded data before, during and after CRAFT, at different magnetic fields and during ramps of the magnet. This first data taking experience has several interesting goals: •    study detector deformations and movements under the influence of the huge magnetic forces; •    study the stability of detector structures and of the alignment system over long periods, •    study geometry reproducibility at equal fields (specially at 0T and 3.8T); •    reconstruct B=0T geometry and compare to nominal/survey geometries; •    reconstruct B=3.8T geometry and provide DT and CSC alignment records for CMSSW. However, the main goal is to recons...

  16. Biaxial magnetic grain alignment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staines, M.; Genoud, J.-Y.; Mawdsley, A.; Manojlovic, V.

    2000-01-01

    Full text: We describe a dynamic magnetic grain alignment technique which can be used to produce YBCO thick films with a high degree of biaxial texture. The technique is, however, generally applicable to preparing ceramics or composite materials from granular materials with orthorhombic or lower crystal symmetry and is therefore not restricted to superconducting applications. Because magnetic alignment is a bulk effect, textured substrates are not required, unlike epitaxial coated tape processes such as RABiTS. We have used the technique to produce thick films of Y-247 on untextured silver substrates. After processing to Y-123 the films show a clear enhancement of critical current density relative to identically prepared untextured or uniaxially textured samples. We describe procedures for preparing materials using magnetic biaxial grain alignment with the emphasis on alignment in epoxy, which can give extremely high texture. X-ray rocking curves with FWHM of as little as 1-2 degrees have been measured

  17. Alignment of CEBAF cryomodules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, W.J.; Bisognano, J.J.; Fischer, J.

    1993-06-01

    CEBAF, the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility, when completed, will house a 4 GeV recirculating accelerator. Each of the accelerator's two linacs contains 160 superconducting radio frequency (SRF) 1497 MHz niobium cavities in 20 cryomodules. Alignments of the cavities within the cryomodule with respect to beam axis is critical to achieving the optimum accelerator performance. This paper discusses the rationale for the current specification on cavity mechanical alignment: 2 mrad (rms) applied to the 0.5 m active length cavities. We describe the tooling that was developed to achieve the tolerance at the time of cavity pair assembly, to preserve and integrate alignment during cryomodule assembly, and to translate alignment to appropriate installation in the beam line

  18. Bayesian variable order Markov models: Towards Bayesian predictive state representations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dimitrakakis, C.

    2009-01-01

    We present a Bayesian variable order Markov model that shares many similarities with predictive state representations. The resulting models are compact and much easier to specify and learn than classical predictive state representations. Moreover, we show that they significantly outperform a more

  19. The humble Bayesian : Model checking from a fully Bayesian perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morey, Richard D.; Romeijn, Jan-Willem; Rouder, Jeffrey N.

    Gelman and Shalizi (2012) criticize what they call the usual story in Bayesian statistics: that the distribution over hypotheses or models is the sole means of statistical inference, thus excluding model checking and revision, and that inference is inductivist rather than deductivist. They present

  20. Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…

  1. Bayesian models in cognitive neuroscience: A tutorial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    O'Reilly, J.X.; Mars, R.B.

    2015-01-01

    This chapter provides an introduction to Bayesian models and their application in cognitive neuroscience. The central feature of Bayesian models, as opposed to other classes of models, is that Bayesian models represent the beliefs of an observer as probability distributions, allowing them to

  2. A Bayesian framework for risk perception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Erp, H.R.N.

    2017-01-01

    We present here a Bayesian framework of risk perception. This framework encompasses plausibility judgments, decision making, and question asking. Plausibility judgments are modeled by way of Bayesian probability theory, decision making is modeled by way of a Bayesian decision theory, and relevancy

  3. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    G. Gomez

    2012-01-01

      A new muon alignment has been produced for 2012 A+B data reconstruction. It uses the latest Tracker alignment and single-muon data samples to align both DTs and CSCs. Physics validation has been performed and shows a modest improvement in stand-alone muon momentum resolution in the barrel, where the alignment is essentially unchanged from the previous version. The reference-target track-based algorithm using only collision muons is employed for the first time to align the CSCs, and a substantial improvement in resolution is observed in the endcap and overlap regions for stand-alone muons. This new alignment is undergoing the approval process and is expected to be deployed as part of a new global tag in the beginning of December. The pT dependence of the φ-bias in curvature observed in Monte Carlo was traced to a relative vertical misalignment between the Tracker and barrel muon systems. Moving the barrel as a whole to match the Tracker cures this pT dependence, leaving only the &phi...

  4. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    S. Szillasi

    2013-01-01

    The CMS detector has been gradually opened and whenever a wheel became exposed the first operation was the removal of the MABs, the sensor structures of the Hardware Barrel Alignment System. By the last days of June all 36 MABs have arrived at the Alignment Lab at the ISR where, as part of the Alignment Upgrade Project, they are refurbished with new Survey target holders. Their electronic checkout is on the way and finally they will be recalibrated. During LS1 the alignment system will be upgraded in order to allow more precise reconstruction of the MB4 chambers in Sector 10 and Sector 4. This requires new sensor components, so called MiniMABs (pictured below), that have already been assembled and calibrated. Image 6: Calibrated MiniMABs are ready for installation For the track-based alignment, the systematic uncertainties of the algorithm are under scrutiny: this study will enable the production of an improved Monte Carlo misalignment scenario and to update alignment position errors eventually, crucial...

  5. Curriculum Alignment Research Suggests that Alignment Can Improve Student Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Squires, David

    2012-01-01

    Curriculum alignment research has developed showing the relationship among three alignment categories: the taught curriculum, the tested curriculum and the written curriculum. Each pair (for example, the taught and the written curriculum) shows a positive impact for aligning those results. Following this, alignment results from the Third…

  6. Differentiated Bayesian Conjoint Choice Designs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Z. Sándor (Zsolt); M. Wedel (Michel)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractPrevious conjoint choice design construction procedures have produced a single design that is administered to all subjects. This paper proposes to construct a limited set of different designs. The designs are constructed in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account prior uncertainty about

  7. Bayesian networks in levee reliability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roscoe, K.; Hanea, A.

    2015-01-01

    We applied a Bayesian network to a system of levees for which the results of traditional reliability analysis showed high failure probabilities, which conflicted with the intuition and experience of those managing the levees. We made use of forty proven strength observations - high water levels with

  8. Bayesian Classification of Image Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goswami, Dibyendu; Kalkan, Sinan; Krüger, Norbert

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we describe work on Bayesian classi ers for distinguishing between homogeneous structures, textures, edges and junctions. We build semi-local classiers from hand-labeled images to distinguish between these four different kinds of structures based on the concept of intrinsic...... dimensionality. The built classi er is tested on standard and non-standard images...

  9. Computational Neuropsychology and Bayesian Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parr, Thomas; Rees, Geraint; Friston, Karl J

    2018-01-01

    Computational theories of brain function have become very influential in neuroscience. They have facilitated the growth of formal approaches to disease, particularly in psychiatric research. In this paper, we provide a narrative review of the body of computational research addressing neuropsychological syndromes, and focus on those that employ Bayesian frameworks. Bayesian approaches to understanding brain function formulate perception and action as inferential processes. These inferences combine 'prior' beliefs with a generative (predictive) model to explain the causes of sensations. Under this view, neuropsychological deficits can be thought of as false inferences that arise due to aberrant prior beliefs (that are poor fits to the real world). This draws upon the notion of a Bayes optimal pathology - optimal inference with suboptimal priors - and provides a means for computational phenotyping. In principle, any given neuropsychological disorder could be characterized by the set of prior beliefs that would make a patient's behavior appear Bayes optimal. We start with an overview of some key theoretical constructs and use these to motivate a form of computational neuropsychology that relates anatomical structures in the brain to the computations they perform. Throughout, we draw upon computational accounts of neuropsychological syndromes. These are selected to emphasize the key features of a Bayesian approach, and the possible types of pathological prior that may be present. They range from visual neglect through hallucinations to autism. Through these illustrative examples, we review the use of Bayesian approaches to understand the link between biology and computation that is at the heart of neuropsychology.

  10. Bayesian Alternation During Tactile Augmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caspar Mathias Goeke

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition, rotation only (native condition, and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition. Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants’ responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND. Then we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred2 = 1.67 than the Bayesian integration model (χred2= 4.34. Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all model (χred2= 1.64, which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred2= 1.09 utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in

  11. Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutihac, R.; Cicuttin, A.; Cerdeira, A.; Stanciulescu, C.

    1998-12-01

    Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)

  12. RNA Structural Alignments, Part I

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havgaard, Jakob Hull; Gorodkin, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Simultaneous alignment and secondary structure prediction of RNA sequences is often referred to as "RNA structural alignment." A class of the methods for structural alignment is based on the principles proposed by Sankoff more than 25 years ago. The Sankoff algorithm simultaneously folds and aligns...

  13. Bayesian analysis of rare events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straub, Daniel; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

    2016-06-01

    In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

  14. Polytomies and Bayesian phylogenetic inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Paul O; Holder, Mark T; Holsinger, Kent E

    2005-04-01

    Bayesian phylogenetic analyses are now very popular in systematics and molecular evolution because they allow the use of much more realistic models than currently possible with maximum likelihood methods. There are, however, a growing number of examples in which large Bayesian posterior clade probabilities are associated with very short branch lengths and low values for non-Bayesian measures of support such as nonparametric bootstrapping. For the four-taxon case when the true tree is the star phylogeny, Bayesian analyses become increasingly unpredictable in their preference for one of the three possible resolved tree topologies as data set size increases. This leads to the prediction that hard (or near-hard) polytomies in nature will cause unpredictable behavior in Bayesian analyses, with arbitrary resolutions of the polytomy receiving very high posterior probabilities in some cases. We present a simple solution to this problem involving a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that allows exploration of all of tree space, including unresolved tree topologies with one or more polytomies. The reversible-jump MCMC approach allows prior distributions to place some weight on less-resolved tree topologies, which eliminates misleadingly high posteriors associated with arbitrary resolutions of hard polytomies. Fortunately, assigning some prior probability to polytomous tree topologies does not appear to come with a significant cost in terms of the ability to assess the level of support for edges that do exist in the true tree. Methods are discussed for applying arbitrary prior distributions to tree topologies of varying resolution, and an empirical example showing evidence of polytomies is analyzed and discussed.

  15. Bayesian methods for measures of agreement

    CERN Document Server

    Broemeling, Lyle D

    2009-01-01

    Using WinBUGS to implement Bayesian inferences of estimation and testing hypotheses, Bayesian Methods for Measures of Agreement presents useful methods for the design and analysis of agreement studies. It focuses on agreement among the various players in the diagnostic process.The author employs a Bayesian approach to provide statistical inferences based on various models of intra- and interrater agreement. He presents many examples that illustrate the Bayesian mode of reasoning and explains elements of a Bayesian application, including prior information, experimental information, the likelihood function, posterior distribution, and predictive distribution. The appendices provide the necessary theoretical foundation to understand Bayesian methods as well as introduce the fundamentals of programming and executing the WinBUGS software.Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, this hands-on book explores numerous measures of agreement, including the Kappa coefficient, the G coefficient, and intraclass correlation...

  16. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    Gervasio Gomez

    2012-01-01

      The new alignment for the DT chambers has been successfully used in physics analysis starting with the 52X Global Tag. The remaining main areas of development over the next few months will be preparing a new track-based CSC alignment and producing realistic APEs (alignment position errors) and MC misalignment scenarios to match the latest muon alignment constants. Work on these items has been delayed from the intended timeline, mostly due to a large involvement of the muon alignment man-power in physics analyses over the first half of this year. As CMS keeps probing higher and higher energies, special attention must be paid to the reconstruction of very-high-energy muons. Recent muon POG reports from mid-June show a φ-dependence in curvature bias in Monte Carlo samples. This bias is observed already at the tracker level, where it is constant with muon pT, while it grows with pT as muon chamber information is added to the tracks. Similar studies show a much smaller effect in data, at le...

  17. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    M. Dallavalle

    2013-01-01

    A new Muon misalignment scenario for 2011 (7 TeV) Monte Carlo re-processing was re-leased. The scenario is based on running of standard track-based reference-target algorithm (exactly as in data) using single-muon simulated sample (with the transverse-momentum spectrum matching data). It used statistics similar to what was used for alignment with 2011 data, starting from an initially misaligned Muon geometry from uncertainties of hardware measurements and using the latest Tracker misalignment geometry. Validation of the scenario (with muons from Z decay and high-pT simulated muons) shows that it describes data well. The study of systematic uncertainties (dominant by now due to huge amount of data collected by CMS and used for muon alignment) is finalised. Realistic alignment position errors are being obtained from the estimated uncertainties and are expected to improve the muon reconstruction performance. Concerning the Hardware Alignment System, the upgrade of the Barrel Alignment is in progress. By now, d...

  18. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    G. Gomez

    2010-01-01

    For the last three months, the Muon Alignment group has focussed on providing a new, improved set of alignment constants for the end-of-year data reprocessing. These constants were delivered on time and approved by the CMS physics validation team on November 17. The new alignment incorporates several improvements over the previous one from March for nearly all sub-systems. Motivated by the loss of information from a hardware failure in May (an entire MAB was lost), the optical barrel alignment has moved from a modular, super-plane reconstruction, to a full, single loop calculation of the entire geometry for all DTs in stations 1, 2 and 3. This makes better use of the system redundancy, mitigating the effect of the information loss. Station 4 is factorised and added afterwards to make the system smaller (and therefore faster to run), and also because the MAB calibration at the MB4 zone is less precise. This new alignment procedure was tested at 0 T against photogrammetry resulting in precisions of the order...

  19. FMIT alignment cart

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, R.C.; Dauelsberg, L.B.; Clark, D.C.; Grieggs, R.J.

    1981-01-01

    The Fusion Materials Irradiation Test (FMIT) Facility alignment cart must perform several functions. It must serve as a fixture to receive the drift-tube girder assembly when it is removed from the linac tank. It must transport the girder assembly from the linac vault to the area where alignment or disassembly is to take place. It must serve as a disassembly fixture to hold the girder while individual drift tubes are removed for repair. It must align the drift tube bores in a straight line parallel to the girder, using an optical system. These functions must be performed without violating any clearances found within the building. The bore tubes of the drift tubes will be irradiated, and shielding will be included in the system for easier maintenance

  20. MUSE optical alignment procedure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurent, Florence; Renault, Edgard; Loupias, Magali; Kosmalski, Johan; Anwand, Heiko; Bacon, Roland; Boudon, Didier; Caillier, Patrick; Daguisé, Eric; Dubois, Jean-Pierre; Dupuy, Christophe; Kelz, Andreas; Lizon, Jean-Louis; Nicklas, Harald; Parès, Laurent; Remillieux, Alban; Seifert, Walter; Valentin, Hervé; Xu, Wenli

    2012-09-01

    MUSE (Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer) is a second generation VLT integral field spectrograph (1x1arcmin² Field of View) developed for the European Southern Observatory (ESO), operating in the visible wavelength range (0.465-0.93 μm). A consortium of seven institutes is currently assembling and testing MUSE in the Integration Hall of the Observatoire de Lyon for the Preliminary Acceptance in Europe, scheduled for 2013. MUSE is composed of several subsystems which are under the responsibility of each institute. The Fore Optics derotates and anamorphoses the image at the focal plane. A Splitting and Relay Optics feed the 24 identical Integral Field Units (IFU), that are mounted within a large monolithic instrument mechanical structure. Each IFU incorporates an image slicer, a fully refractive spectrograph with VPH-grating and a detector system connected to a global vacuum and cryogenic system. During 2011, all MUSE subsystems were integrated, aligned and tested independently in each institute. After validations, the systems were shipped to the P.I. institute at Lyon and were assembled in the Integration Hall This paper describes the end-to-end optical alignment procedure of the MUSE instrument. The design strategy, mixing an optical alignment by manufacturing (plug and play approach) and few adjustments on key components, is presented. We depict the alignment method for identifying the optical axis using several references located in pupil and image planes. All tools required to perform the global alignment between each subsystem are described. The success of this alignment approach is demonstrated by the good results for the MUSE image quality. MUSE commissioning at the VLT (Very Large Telescope) is planned for 2013.

  1. MaxAlign: maximizing usable data in an alignment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oliveira, Rodrigo Gouveia; Sackett, Peter Wad; Pedersen, Anders Gorm

    2007-01-01

    the alignment prior to such analyses. Specifically, it maximizes the number of nucleotide (or amino acid) symbols that are present in gap-free columns - the alignment area - by selecting the optimal subset of sequences to exclude from the alignment. MaxAlign can be used prior to phylogenetic and bioinformatical......Align. In this paper we also introduce a new simple measure of tree similarity, Normalized Symmetric Similarity (NSS) that we consider useful for comparing tree topologies. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate how MaxAlign is helpful in detecting misaligned or defective sequences without requiring manual inspection. We also...

  2. Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

    2014-01-01

    This article considers Bayesian model averaging as a means of addressing uncertainty in the selection of variables in the propensity score equation. We investigate an approximate Bayesian model averaging approach based on the model-averaged propensity score estimates produced by the R package BMA but that ignores uncertainty in the propensity score. We also provide a fully Bayesian model averaging approach via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling (MCMC) to account for uncertainty in both parameters and models. A detailed study of our approach examines the differences in the causal estimate when incorporating noninformative versus informative priors in the model averaging stage. We examine these approaches under common methods of propensity score implementation. In addition, we evaluate the impact of changing the size of Occam's window used to narrow down the range of possible models. We also assess the predictive performance of both Bayesian model averaging propensity score approaches and compare it with the case without Bayesian model averaging. Overall, results show that both Bayesian model averaging propensity score approaches recover the treatment effect estimates well and generally provide larger uncertainty estimates, as expected. Both Bayesian model averaging approaches offer slightly better prediction of the propensity score compared with the Bayesian approach with a single propensity score equation. Covariate balance checks for the case study show that both Bayesian model averaging approaches offer good balance. The fully Bayesian model averaging approach also provides posterior probability intervals of the balance indices.

  3. Pedestrian dynamics via Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkat, Ibrahim; Khader, Ahamad Tajudin; Subramanian, K. G.

    2014-06-01

    Studies on pedestrian dynamics have vital applications in crowd control management relevant to organizing safer large scale gatherings including pilgrimages. Reasoning pedestrian motion via computational intelligence techniques could be posed as a potential research problem within the realms of Artificial Intelligence. In this contribution, we propose a "Bayesian Network Model for Pedestrian Dynamics" (BNMPD) to reason the vast uncertainty imposed by pedestrian motion. With reference to key findings from literature which include simulation studies, we systematically identify: What are the various factors that could contribute to the prediction of crowd flow status? The proposed model unifies these factors in a cohesive manner using Bayesian Networks (BNs) and serves as a sophisticated probabilistic tool to simulate vital cause and effect relationships entailed in the pedestrian domain.

  4. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

     Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...... primarily for practitioners, this book does not require sophisticated mathematical skills or deep understanding of the underlying theory and methods nor does it discuss alternative technologies for reasoning under uncertainty. The theory and methods presented are illustrated through more than 140 examples...

  5. BAYESIAN IMAGE RESTORATION, USING CONFIGURATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed in detail for 3 X 3 and 5 X 5 configurations and examples of the performance of the procedure are given.

  6. Bayesian Inference on Proportional Elections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio

    2015-01-01

    Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software. PMID:25786259

  7. Bayesian analyses of cognitive architecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houpt, Joseph W; Heathcote, Andrew; Eidels, Ami

    2017-06-01

    The question of cognitive architecture-how cognitive processes are temporally organized-has arisen in many areas of psychology. This question has proved difficult to answer, with many proposed solutions turning out to be spurious. Systems factorial technology (Townsend & Nozawa, 1995) provided the first rigorous empirical and analytical method of identifying cognitive architecture, using the survivor interaction contrast (SIC) to determine when people are using multiple sources of information in parallel or in series. Although the SIC is based on rigorous nonparametric mathematical modeling of response time distributions, for many years inference about cognitive architecture has relied solely on visual assessment. Houpt and Townsend (2012) recently introduced null hypothesis significance tests, and here we develop both parametric and nonparametric (encompassing prior) Bayesian inference. We show that the Bayesian approaches can have considerable advantages. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Deep Learning and Bayesian Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prosper Harrison B.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A revolution is underway in which deep neural networks are routinely used to solve diffcult problems such as face recognition and natural language understanding. Particle physicists have taken notice and have started to deploy these methods, achieving results that suggest a potentially significant shift in how data might be analyzed in the not too distant future. We discuss a few recent developments in the application of deep neural networks and then indulge in speculation about how such methods might be used to automate certain aspects of data analysis in particle physics. Next, the connection to Bayesian methods is discussed and the paper ends with thoughts on a significant practical issue, namely, how, from a Bayesian perspective, one might optimize the construction of deep neural networks.

  9. Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello

    Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.

  10. Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores

  11. Multiview Bayesian Correlated Component Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamronn, Simon Due; Poulsen, Andreas Trier; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2015-01-01

    are identical. Here we propose a hierarchical probabilistic model that can infer the level of universality in such multiview data, from completely unrelated representations, corresponding to canonical correlation analysis, to identical representations as in correlated component analysis. This new model, which...... we denote Bayesian correlated component analysis, evaluates favorably against three relevant algorithms in simulated data. A well-established benchmark EEG data set is used to further validate the new model and infer the variability of spatial representations across multiple subjects....

  12. Reliability analysis with Bayesian networks

    OpenAIRE

    Zwirglmaier, Kilian Martin

    2017-01-01

    Bayesian networks (BNs) represent a probabilistic modeling tool with large potential for reliability engineering. While BNs have been successfully applied to reliability engineering, there are remaining issues, some of which are addressed in this work. Firstly a classification of BN elicitation approaches is proposed. Secondly two approximate inference approaches, one of which is based on discretization and the other one on sampling, are proposed. These approaches are applicable to hybrid/con...

  13. Interim Bayesian Persuasion: First Steps

    OpenAIRE

    Perez, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    This paper makes a first attempt at building a theory of interim Bayesian persuasion. I work in a minimalist model where a low or high type sender seeks validation from a receiver who is willing to validate high types exclusively. After learning her type, the sender chooses a complete conditional information structure for the receiver from a possibly restricted feasible set. I suggest a solution to this game that takes into account the signaling potential of the sender's choice.

  14. Bayesian Sampling using Condition Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael H.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2002-01-01

    . This allows for a Bayesian formulation of the indicators whereby the experience and expertise of the inspection personnel may be fully utilized and consistently updated as frequentistic information is collected. The approach is illustrated on an example considering a concrete structure subject to corrosion....... It is shown how half-cell potential measurements may be utilized to update the probability of excessive repair after 50 years....

  15. Computational Neuropsychology and Bayesian Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Parr

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Computational theories of brain function have become very influential in neuroscience. They have facilitated the growth of formal approaches to disease, particularly in psychiatric research. In this paper, we provide a narrative review of the body of computational research addressing neuropsychological syndromes, and focus on those that employ Bayesian frameworks. Bayesian approaches to understanding brain function formulate perception and action as inferential processes. These inferences combine ‘prior’ beliefs with a generative (predictive model to explain the causes of sensations. Under this view, neuropsychological deficits can be thought of as false inferences that arise due to aberrant prior beliefs (that are poor fits to the real world. This draws upon the notion of a Bayes optimal pathology – optimal inference with suboptimal priors – and provides a means for computational phenotyping. In principle, any given neuropsychological disorder could be characterized by the set of prior beliefs that would make a patient’s behavior appear Bayes optimal. We start with an overview of some key theoretical constructs and use these to motivate a form of computational neuropsychology that relates anatomical structures in the brain to the computations they perform. Throughout, we draw upon computational accounts of neuropsychological syndromes. These are selected to emphasize the key features of a Bayesian approach, and the possible types of pathological prior that may be present. They range from visual neglect through hallucinations to autism. Through these illustrative examples, we review the use of Bayesian approaches to understand the link between biology and computation that is at the heart of neuropsychology.

  16. Discriminative Shape Alignment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loog, M.; de Bruijne, M.

    2009-01-01

    , not taking into account that eventually the shapes are to be assigned to two or more different classes. This work introduces a discriminative variation to well-known Procrustes alignment and demonstrates its benefit over this classical method in shape classification tasks. The focus is on two...

  17. Light microscope alignment methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagnell, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Instructions for proper alignment for each of the most common wide field light microscopy contrast techniques are presented: bright field, polarization, dark field, phase contrast, differential interference contrast, and fluorescence. These are then followed by methods on photomicrography, measurement, and cleaning. An extensive set of Notes provides practical tips for each of these methods.

  18. Advanced aligner orthodontics

    OpenAIRE

    Ojima Kenji

    2017-01-01

    Invisalign initially had limitations which have now been overcome.Advances in the quality of aligner materials, attachments and the introduction of a new force system, have expanded the range of treatment possibilities from severe crowding to more difficult extraction cases, open bite cases, and lower molar distalization cases.

  19. Advanced aligner orthodontics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ojima Kenji

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Invisalign initially had limitations which have now been overcome.Advances in the quality of aligner materials, attachments and the introduction of a new force system, have expanded the range of treatment possibilities from severe crowding to more difficult extraction cases, open bite cases, and lower molar distalization cases.

  20. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    G. Gomez and Y. Pakhotin

    2012-01-01

      A new track-based alignment for the DT chambers is ready for deployment: an offline tag has already been produced which will become part of the 52X Global Tag. This alignment was validated within the muon alignment group both at low and high momentum using a W/Z skim sample. It shows an improved mass resolution for pairs of stand-alone muons, improved curvature resolution at high momentum, and improved DT segment extrapolation residuals. The validation workflow for high-momentum muons used to depend solely on the “split cosmics” method, looking at the curvature difference between muon tracks reconstructed in the upper or lower half of CMS. The validation has now been extended to include energetic muons decaying from heavily boosted Zs: the di-muon invariant mass for global and stand-alone muons is reconstructed, and the invariant mass resolution is compared for different alignments. The main areas of development over the next few months will be preparing a new track-based C...

  1. DotAligner

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smith, Martin A.; Seemann, Stefan E.; Quek, Xiu Cheng

    2017-01-01

    a computational method, DotAligner, for the unsupervised discovery and classification of homologous RNA structure motifs from a set of sequences of interest. Our approach outperforms comparable algorithms at clustering known RNA structure families, both in speed and accuracy. It identifies clusters of known...... and novel structure motifs from ENCODE immunoprecipitation data for 44 RNA-binding proteins....

  2. Aligning Responsible Business Practices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weller, Angeli E.

    2017-01-01

    This article offers an in-depth case study of a global high tech manufacturer that aligned its ethics and compliance, corporate social responsibility, and sustainability practices. Few large companies organize their responsible business practices this way, despite conceptual relevance and calls...... and managers interested in understanding how responsible business practices may be collectively organized....

  3. Resource Alignment ANADP

    OpenAIRE

    Grindley, Neil; Cramer, Tom; Schrimpf, Sabine; Wilson, Tom

    2014-01-01

    Aligning National Approaches to Digital Preservation: An Action Assembly Biblioteca de Catalunya (National Library of Catalonia) November 18-20, 2013, Barcelona, Spain Auburn University Council on Library and Information Resources (CLIR) Digital Curation Centre (DCC) Digital Preservation Network (DPN) Joint Information Systems Committee (JISC) University of North Texas Virginia Tech Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) Innovative Inte...

  4. Capacity Alignment ANADP

    OpenAIRE

    Davidson, Joy; Whitehead, Martha; Molloy, Laura; Molinaro, Mary

    2014-01-01

    Aligning National Approaches to Digital Preservation: An Action Assembly Biblioteca de Catalunya (National Library of Catalonia) November 18-20, 2013, Barcelona, Spain Auburn University Council on Library and Information Resources (CLIR) Digital Curation Centre (DCC) Digital Preservation Network (DPN) Joint Information Systems Committee (JISC) University of North Texas Virginia Tech Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) Innovative Inte...

  5. Bayesian methods applied to GWAS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernando, Rohan L; Garrick, Dorian

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian multiple-regression methods are being successfully used for genomic prediction and selection. These regression models simultaneously fit many more markers than the number of observations available for the analysis. Thus, the Bayes theorem is used to combine prior beliefs of marker effects, which are expressed in terms of prior distributions, with information from data for inference. Often, the analyses are too complex for closed-form solutions and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is used to draw inferences from posterior distributions. This chapter describes how these Bayesian multiple-regression analyses can be used for GWAS. In most GWAS, false positives are controlled by limiting the genome-wise error rate, which is the probability of one or more false-positive results, to a small value. As the number of test in GWAS is very large, this results in very low power. Here we show how in Bayesian GWAS false positives can be controlled by limiting the proportion of false-positive results among all positives to some small value. The advantage of this approach is that the power of detecting associations is not inversely related to the number of markers.

  6. SPA: a probabilistic algorithm for spliced alignment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent large-scale cDNA sequencing efforts show that elaborate patterns of splice variation are responsible for much of the proteome diversity in higher eukaryotes. To obtain an accurate account of the repertoire of splice variants, and to gain insight into the mechanisms of alternative splicing, it is essential that cDNAs are very accurately mapped to their respective genomes. Currently available algorithms for cDNA-to-genome alignment do not reach the necessary level of accuracy because they use ad hoc scoring models that cannot correctly trade off the likelihoods of various sequencing errors against the probabilities of different gene structures. Here we develop a Bayesian probabilistic approach to cDNA-to-genome alignment. Gene structures are assigned prior probabilities based on the lengths of their introns and exons, and based on the sequences at their splice boundaries. A likelihood model for sequencing errors takes into account the rates at which misincorporation, as well as insertions and deletions of different lengths, occurs during sequencing. The parameters of both the prior and likelihood model can be automatically estimated from a set of cDNAs, thus enabling our method to adapt itself to different organisms and experimental procedures. We implemented our method in a fast cDNA-to-genome alignment program, SPA, and applied it to the FANTOM3 dataset of over 100,000 full-length mouse cDNAs and a dataset of over 20,000 full-length human cDNAs. Comparison with the results of four other mapping programs shows that SPA produces alignments of significantly higher quality. In particular, the quality of the SPA alignments near splice boundaries and SPA's mapping of the 5' and 3' ends of the cDNAs are highly improved, allowing for more accurate identification of transcript starts and ends, and accurate identification of subtle splice variations. Finally, our splice boundary analysis on the human dataset suggests the existence of a novel non

  7. Fast global sequence alignment technique

    KAUST Repository

    Bonny, Mohamed Talal

    2011-11-01

    Bioinformatics database is growing exponentially in size. Processing these large amount of data may take hours of time even if super computers are used. One of the most important processing tool in Bioinformatics is sequence alignment. We introduce fast alignment algorithm, called \\'Alignment By Scanning\\' (ABS), to provide an approximate alignment of two DNA sequences. We compare our algorithm with the wellknown sequence alignment algorithms, the \\'GAP\\' (which is heuristic) and the \\'Needleman-Wunsch\\' (which is optimal). The proposed algorithm achieves up to 51% enhancement in alignment score when it is compared with the GAP Algorithm. The evaluations are conducted using different lengths of DNA sequences. © 2011 IEEE.

  8. ABS: Sequence alignment by scanning

    KAUST Repository

    Bonny, Mohamed Talal

    2011-08-01

    Sequence alignment is an essential tool in almost any computational biology research. It processes large database sequences and considered to be high consumers of computation time. Heuristic algorithms are used to get approximate but fast results. We introduce fast alignment algorithm, called Alignment By Scanning (ABS), to provide an approximate alignment of two DNA sequences. We compare our algorithm with the well-known alignment algorithms, the FASTA (which is heuristic) and the \\'Needleman-Wunsch\\' (which is optimal). The proposed algorithm achieves up to 76% enhancement in alignment score when it is compared with the FASTA Algorithm. The evaluations are conducted using different lengths of DNA sequences. © 2011 IEEE.

  9. 12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo

    2015-01-01

    Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...

  10. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

    2004-01-01

    We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...... and differentiating these circuits in time linear in their size. We report on experimental results showing the successful compilation, and efficient inference, on relational Bayesian networks whose {\\primula}--generated propositional instances have thousands of variables, and whose jointrees have clusters...

  11. Bayesian Posterior Distributions Without Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Cole, Stephen R.; Chu, Haitao; Greenland, Sander; Hamra, Ghassan; Richardson, David B.

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian posterior parameter distributions are often simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are not always necessary and do not help the uninitiated understand Bayesian inference. As a bridge to understanding Bayesian inference, the authors illustrate a transparent rejection sampling method. In example 1, they illustrate rejection sampling using 36 cases and 198 controls from a case-control study (1976–1983) assessing the relation between residential ex...

  12. MUSE alignment onto VLT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurent, Florence; Renault, Edgard; Boudon, Didier; Caillier, Patrick; Daguisé, Eric; Dupuy, Christophe; Jarno, Aurélien; Lizon, Jean-Louis; Migniau, Jean-Emmanuel; Nicklas, Harald; Piqueras, Laure

    2014-07-01

    MUSE (Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer) is a second generation Very Large Telescope (VLT) integral field spectrograph developed for the European Southern Observatory (ESO). It combines a 1' x 1' field of view sampled at 0.2 arcsec for its Wide Field Mode (WFM) and a 7.5"x7.5" field of view for its Narrow Field Mode (NFM). Both modes will operate with the improved spatial resolution provided by GALACSI (Ground Atmospheric Layer Adaptive Optics for Spectroscopic Imaging), that will use the VLT deformable secondary mirror and 4 Laser Guide Stars (LGS) foreseen in 2015. MUSE operates in the visible wavelength range (0.465-0.93 μm). A consortium of seven institutes is currently commissioning MUSE in the Very Large Telescope for the Preliminary Acceptance in Chile, scheduled for September, 2014. MUSE is composed of several subsystems which are under the responsibility of each institute. The Fore Optics derotates and anamorphoses the image at the focal plane. A Splitting and Relay Optics feed the 24 identical Integral Field Units (IFU), that are mounted within a large monolithic structure. Each IFU incorporates an image slicer, a fully refractive spectrograph with VPH-grating and a detector system connected to a global vacuum and cryogenic system. During 2012 and 2013, all MUSE subsystems were integrated, aligned and tested to the P.I. institute at Lyon. After successful PAE in September 2013, MUSE instrument was shipped to the Very Large Telescope in Chile where that was aligned and tested in ESO integration hall at Paranal. After, MUSE was directly transported, fully aligned and without any optomechanical dismounting, onto VLT telescope where the first light was overcame the 7th of February, 2014. This paper describes the alignment procedure of the whole MUSE instrument with respect to the Very Large Telescope (VLT). It describes how 6 tons could be move with accuracy better than 0.025mm and less than 0.25 arcmin in order to reach alignment requirements. The success

  13. Nuclear reactor alignment plate configuration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Altman, David A; Forsyth, David R; Smith, Richard E; Singleton, Norman R

    2014-01-28

    An alignment plate that is attached to a core barrel of a pressurized water reactor and fits within slots within a top plate of a lower core shroud and upper core plate to maintain lateral alignment of the reactor internals. The alignment plate is connected to the core barrel through two vertically-spaced dowel pins that extend from the outside surface of the core barrel through a reinforcement pad and into corresponding holes in the alignment plate. Additionally, threaded fasteners are inserted around the perimeter of the reinforcement pad and into the alignment plate to further secure the alignment plate to the core barrel. A fillet weld also is deposited around the perimeter of the reinforcement pad. To accomodate thermal growth between the alignment plate and the core barrel, a gap is left above, below and at both sides of one of the dowel pins in the alignment plate holes through with the dowel pins pass.

  14. Orbit IMU alignment: Error analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corson, R. W.

    1980-01-01

    A comprehensive accuracy analysis of orbit inertial measurement unit (IMU) alignments using the shuttle star trackers was completed and the results are presented. Monte Carlo techniques were used in a computer simulation of the IMU alignment hardware and software systems to: (1) determine the expected Space Transportation System 1 Flight (STS-1) manual mode IMU alignment accuracy; (2) investigate the accuracy of alignments in later shuttle flights when the automatic mode of star acquisition may be used; and (3) verify that an analytical model previously used for estimating the alignment error is a valid model. The analysis results do not differ significantly from expectations. The standard deviation in the IMU alignment error for STS-1 alignments was determined to the 68 arc seconds per axis. This corresponds to a 99.7% probability that the magnitude of the total alignment error is less than 258 arc seconds.

  15. 3rd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

    CERN Document Server

    Lanzarone, Ettore; Villalobos, Isadora; Mattei, Alessandra

    2017-01-01

    This book is a selection of peer-reviewed contributions presented at the third Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM 2016, Florence, Italy, June 19-21. The meeting provided a unique opportunity for young researchers, M.S. students, Ph.D. students, and postdocs dealing with Bayesian statistics to connect with the Bayesian community at large, to exchange ideas, and to network with others working in the same field. The contributions develop and apply Bayesian methods in a variety of fields, ranging from the traditional (e.g., biostatistics and reliability) to the most innovative ones (e.g., big data and networks).

  16. Learning dynamic Bayesian networks with mixed variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard

    This paper considers dynamic Bayesian networks for discrete and continuous variables. We only treat the case, where the distribution of the variables is conditional Gaussian. We show how to learn the parameters and structure of a dynamic Bayesian network and also how the Markov order can be learn....... An automated procedure for specifying prior distributions for the parameters in a dynamic Bayesian network is presented. It is a simple extension of the procedure for the ordinary Bayesian networks. Finally the W¨olfer?s sunspot numbers are analyzed....

  17. Inflation by Alignment

    CERN Document Server

    Burgess, Cliff

    2015-01-01

    Pseudo-Goldstone bosons (pGBs) can provide technically natural inflatons, as has been comparatively well-explored in the simplest axion examples. Although inflationary success requires trans-Planckian decay constants, f > Mp, several mechanisms have been proposed to obtain this, relying on (mis-)alignments between potential and kinetic energies in multiple-field models. We extend these mechanisms to a broader class of inflationary models, including in particular the exponential potentials that arise for pGB potentials based on noncompact groups (and so which might apply to moduli in an extra-dimensional setting). The resulting potentials provide natural large-field inflationary models and can predict a larger primordial tensor signal than is true for simpler single-field versions of these models. In so doing we provide a unified treatment of several alignment mechanisms, showing how each emerges as a limit of the more general setup.

  18. Opportunistic Downlink Interference Alignment

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Hyun Jong; Shin, Won-Yong; Jung, Bang Chul; Suh, Changho; Paulraj, Arogyaswami

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we propose an opportunistic downlink interference alignment (ODIA) for interference-limited cellular downlink, which intelligently combines user scheduling and downlink IA techniques. The proposed ODIA not only efficiently reduces the effect of inter-cell interference from other-cell base stations (BSs) but also eliminates intra-cell interference among spatial streams in the same cell. We show that the minimum number of users required to achieve a target degrees-of-freedom (DoF...

  19. Seeking the perfect alignment

    CERN Multimedia

    2002-01-01

    The first full-scale tests of the ATLAS Muon Spectrometer are about to begin in Prévessin. The set-up includes several layers of Monitored Drift Tubes Chambers (MDTs) and will allow tests of the performance of the detectors and of their highly accurate alignment system.   Monitored Drift Chambers in Building 887 in Prévessin, where they are just about to be tested. Muon chambers are keeping the ATLAS Muon Spectrometer team quite busy this summer. Now that most people go on holiday, the beam and alignment tests for these chambers are just starting. These chambers will measure with high accuracy the momentum of high-energy muons, and this implies very demanding requirements for their alignment. The MDT chambers consist of drift tubes, which are gas-filled metal tubes, 3 cm in diameter, with wires running down their axes. With high voltage between the wire and the tube wall, the ionisation due to traversing muons is detected as electrical pulses. With careful timing of the pulses, the position of the muon t...

  20. Alignment at the ESRF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, D.; Levet, N.; Gatta, G.

    1999-01-01

    The ESRF Survey and Alignment group is responsible for the installation, control and periodic realignment of the accelerators and experiments which produce high quality x-rays used by scientists from Europe and around the world. Alignment tolerances are typically less than one millimetre and often in the order of several micrometers. The group is composed of one engineer, five highly trained survey technicians, one electronic and one computer technician. This team is fortified during peak periods by technicians from an external survey company. First an overview and comparative study of the main large-scale survey instrumentation and methods used by the group is made. Secondly a discussion of long term deformation on the ESRF site is presented. This is followed by presentation of the methods used in the realignment of the various machines. Two important aspects of our work, beamline and front-end alignment, and the so-called machine exotic devices are briefly discussed. Finally, the ESRF calibration bench is presented. (authors)

  1. Bayesian phylogeography finds its roots.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Lemey

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available As a key factor in endemic and epidemic dynamics, the geographical distribution of viruses has been frequently interpreted in the light of their genetic histories. Unfortunately, inference of historical dispersal or migration patterns of viruses has mainly been restricted to model-free heuristic approaches that provide little insight into the temporal setting of the spatial dynamics. The introduction of probabilistic models of evolution, however, offers unique opportunities to engage in this statistical endeavor. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, visualization and hypothesis testing of phylogeographic history. By implementing character mapping in a Bayesian software that samples time-scaled phylogenies, we enable the reconstruction of timed viral dispersal patterns while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. Standard Markov model inference is extended with a stochastic search variable selection procedure that identifies the parsimonious descriptions of the diffusion process. In addition, we propose priors that can incorporate geographical sampling distributions or characterize alternative hypotheses about the spatial dynamics. To visualize the spatial and temporal information, we summarize inferences using virtual globe software. We describe how Bayesian phylogeography compares with previous parsimony analysis in the investigation of the influenza A H5N1 origin and H5N1 epidemiological linkage among sampling localities. Analysis of rabies in West African dog populations reveals how virus diffusion may enable endemic maintenance through continuous epidemic cycles. From these analyses, we conclude that our phylogeographic framework will make an important asset in molecular epidemiology that can be easily generalized to infer biogeogeography from genetic data for many organisms.

  2. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  3. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    2013-01-01

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  4. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  5. Attention in a bayesian framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Whiteley, Louise Emma; Sahani, Maneesh

    2012-01-01

    , and include both selective phenomena, where attention is invoked by cues that point to particular stimuli, and integrative phenomena, where attention is invoked dynamically by endogenous processing. However, most previous Bayesian accounts of attention have focused on describing relatively simple experimental...... settings, where cues shape expectations about a small number of upcoming stimuli and thus convey "prior" information about clearly defined objects. While operationally consistent with the experiments it seeks to describe, this view of attention as prior seems to miss many essential elements of both its...

  6. The CMS Muon System Alignment

    CERN Document Server

    Martinez Ruiz-Del-Arbol, P

    2009-01-01

    The alignment of the muon system of CMS is performed using different techniques: photogrammetry measurements, optical alignment and alignment with tracks. For track-based alignment, several methods are employed, ranging from a hit and impact point (HIP) algorithm and a procedure exploiting chamber overlaps to a global fit method based on the Millepede approach. For start-up alignment as long as available integrated luminosity is still significantly limiting the size of the muon sample from collisions, cosmic muon and beam halo signatures play a very strong role. During the last commissioning runs in 2008 the first aligned geometries have been produced and validated with data. The CMS offline computing infrastructure has been used in order to perform improved reconstructions. We present the computational aspects related to the calculation of alignment constants at the CERN Analysis Facility (CAF), the production and population of databases and the validation and performance in the official reconstruction. Also...

  7. Alignment of suprathermally rotating grains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazarian, A.

    1995-12-01

    It is shown that mechanical alignment can be efficient for suprathermally rotating grains, provided that they drift with supersonic velocities. Such a drift should be widely spread due to both Alfvenic waves and ambipolar diffusion. Moreover, if suprathermal rotation is caused by grain interaction with a radiative flux, it is shown that mechanical alignment may be present even in the absence of supersonic drift. This means that the range of applicability of mechanical alignment is wider than generally accepted and that it can rival the paramagnetic one. We also study the latter mechanism and re-examine the interplay between poisoning of active sites and desorption of molecules blocking the access to the active sites of H_2 formation, in order to explain the observed poor alignment of small grains and good alignment of large grains. To obtain a more comprehensive picture of alignment, we briefly discuss the alignment by radiation fluxes and by grain magnetic moments.

  8. Clear aligners in orthodontic treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, T

    2017-03-01

    Since the introduction of the Tooth Positioner (TP Orthodontics) in 1944, removable appliances analogous to clear aligners have been employed for mild to moderate orthodontic tooth movements. Clear aligner therapy has been a part of orthodontic practice for decades, but has, particularly since the introduction of Invisalign appliances (Align Technology) in 1998, become an increasingly common addition to the orthodontic armamentarium. An internet search reveals at least 27 different clear aligner products currently on offer for orthodontic treatment. The present paper will highlight the increasing popularity of clear aligner appliances, as well as the clinical scope and the limitations of aligner therapy in general. Further, the paper will outline the differences between the various types of clear aligner products currently available. © 2017 Australian Dental Association.

  9. Robust bayesian inference of generalized Pareto distribution ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. In this work, robust Bayesian estimation of the generalized Pareto distribution is proposed. The methodology is presented in terms of oscillation of posterior risks of the Bayesian estimators. By using a Monte Carlo simulation study, we show that, under a suitable generalized loss function, we can obtain a robust ...

  10. Bayesian Decision Theoretical Framework for Clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mo

    2011-01-01

    In this thesis, we establish a novel probabilistic framework for the data clustering problem from the perspective of Bayesian decision theory. The Bayesian decision theory view justifies the important questions: what is a cluster and what a clustering algorithm should optimize. We prove that the spectral clustering (to be specific, the…

  11. Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...

  12. Calibration in a Bayesian modelling framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, M.J.W.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.

    2004-01-01

    Bayesian statistics may constitute the core of a consistent and comprehensive framework for the statistical aspects of modelling complex processes that involve many parameters whose values are derived from many sources. Bayesian statistics holds great promises for model calibration, provides the

  13. Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adam, J.; Adamova, D.; Aggarwal, M. M.; Rinella, G. Aglieri; Agnello, M.; Agrawal, N.; Ahammed, Z.; Ahn, S. U.; Aiola, S.; Akindinov, A.; Alam, S. N.; Albuquerque, D. S. D.; Aleksandrov, D.; Alessandro, B.; Alexandre, D.; Alfaro Molina, R.; Alici, A.; Alkin, A.; Almaraz, J. R. M.; Alme, J.; Alt, T.; Altinpinar, S.; Altsybeev, I.; Alves Garcia Prado, C.; Andrei, C.; Andronic, A.; Anguelov, V.; Anticic, T.; Antinori, F.; Antonioli, P.; Aphecetche, L.; Appelshaeuser, H.; Arcelli, S.; Arnaldi, R.; Arnold, O. W.; Arsene, I. C.; Arslandok, M.; Audurier, B.; Augustinus, A.; Averbeck, R.; Azmi, M. D.; Badala, A.; Baek, Y. W.; Bagnasco, S.; Bailhache, R.; Bala, R.; Balasubramanian, S.; Baldisseri, A.; Baral, R. C.; Barbano, A. M.; Barbera, R.; Barile, F.; Barnafoeldi, G. G.; Barnby, L. S.; Barret, V.; Bartalini, P.; Barth, K.; Bartke, J.; Bartsch, E.; Basile, M.; Bastid, N.; Bathen, B.; Batigne, G.; Camejo, A. Batista; Batyunya, B.; Batzing, P. C.; Bearden, I. G.; Beck, H.; Bedda, C.; Behera, N. K.; Belikov, I.; Bellini, F.; Bello Martinez, H.; Bellwied, R.; Belmont, R.; Belmont-Moreno, E.; Belyaev, V.; Benacek, P.; Bencedi, G.; Beole, S.; Berceanu, I.; Bercuci, A.; Berdnikov, Y.; Berenyi, D.; Bertens, R. A.; Berzano, D.; Betev, L.; Bhasin, A.; Bhat, I. R.; Bhati, A. K.; Bhattacharjee, B.; Bhom, J.; Bianchi, L.; Bianchi, N.; Bianchin, C.; Bielcik, J.; Bielcikova, J.; Bilandzic, A.; Biro, G.; Biswas, R.; Biswas, S.; Bjelogrlic, S.; Blair, J. T.; Blau, D.; Blume, C.; Bock, F.; Bogdanov, A.; Boggild, H.; Boldizsar, L.; Bombara, M.; Book, J.; Borel, H.; Borissov, A.; Borri, M.; Bossu, F.; Botta, E.; Bourjau, C.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Bregant, M.; Breitner, T.; Broker, T. A.; Browning, T. A.; Broz, M.; Brucken, E. J.; Bruna, E.; Bruno, G. E.; Budnikov, D.; Buesching, H.; Bufalino, S.; Buncic, P.; Busch, O.; Buthelezi, Z.; Butt, J. B.; Buxton, J. T.; Cabala, J.; Caffarri, D.; Cai, X.; Caines, H.; Diaz, L. Calero; Caliva, A.; Calvo Villar, E.; Camerini, P.; Carena, F.; Carena, W.; Carnesecchi, F.; Castellanos, J. Castillo; Castro, A. J.; Casula, E. A. R.; Sanchez, C. Ceballos; Cepila, J.; Cerello, P.; Cerkala, J.; Chang, B.; Chapeland, S.; Chartier, M.; Charvet, J. L.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chauvin, A.; Chelnokov, V.; Cherney, M.; Cheshkov, C.; Cheynis, B.; Barroso, V. Chibante; Chinellato, D. D.; Cho, S.; Chochula, P.; Choi, K.; Chojnacki, M.; Choudhury, S.; Christakoglou, P.; Christensen, C. H.; Christiansen, P.; Chujo, T.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Cleymans, J.; Colamaria, F.; Colella, D.; Collu, A.; Colocci, M.; Balbastre, G. Conesa; del Valle, Z. Conesa; Connors, M. E.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormier, T. M.; Morales, Y. Corrales; Cortes Maldonado, I.; Cortese, P.; Cosentino, M. R.; Costa, F.; Crochet, P.; Cruz Albino, R.; Cuautle, E.; Cunqueiro, L.; Dahms, T.; Dainese, A.; Danisch, M. C.; Danu, A.; Das, I.; Das, S.; Dash, A.; Dash, S.; De, S.; De Caro, A.; de Cataldo, G.; de Conti, C.; de Cuveland, J.; De Falco, A.; De Gruttola, D.; De Marco, N.; De Pasquale, S.; Deisting, A.; Deloff, A.; Denes, E.; Deplano, C.; Dhankher, P.; Di Bari, D.; Di Mauro, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Corchero, M. A. Diaz; Dietel, T.; Dillenseger, P.; Divia, R.; Djuvsland, O.; Dobrin, A.; Gimenez, D. Domenicis; Doenigus, B.; Dordic, O.; Drozhzhova, T.; Dubey, A. K.; Dubla, A.; Ducroux, L.; Dupieux, P.; Ehlers, R. J.; Elia, D.; Endress, E.; Engel, H.; Epple, E.; Erazmus, B.; Erdemir, I.; Erhardt, F.; Espagnon, B.; Estienne, M.; Esumi, S.; Eum, J.; Evans, D.; Evdokimov, S.; Eyyubova, G.; Fabbietti, L.; Fabris, D.; Faivre, J.; Fantoni, A.; Fasel, M.; Feldkamp, L.; Feliciello, A.; Feofilov, G.; Ferencei, J.; Fernandez Tellez, A.; Ferreiro, E. G.; Ferretti, A.; Festanti, A.; Feuillard, V. J. G.; Figiel, J.; Figueredo, M. A. S.; Filchagin, S.; Finogeev, D.; Fionda, F. M.; Fiore, E. M.; Fleck, M. G.; Floris, M.; Foertsch, S.; Foka, P.; Fokin, S.; Fragiacomo, E.; Francescon, A.; Frankenfeld, U.; Fronze, G. G.; Fuchs, U.; Furget, C.; Furs, A.; Girard, M. Fusco; Gaardhoje, J. J.; Gagliardi, M.; Gago, A. M.; Gallio, M.; Gangadharan, D. R.; Ganoti, P.; Gao, C.; Garabatos, C.; Garcia-Solis, E.; Gargiulo, C.; Gasik, P.; Gauger, E. F.; Germain, M.; Gheata, A.; Gheata, M.; Gianotti, P.; Giubellino, P.; Giubilato, P.; Gladysz-Dziadus, E.; Glaessel, P.; Gomez Coral, D. M.; Ramirez, A. Gomez; Gonzalez, A. S.; Gonzalez, V.; Gonzalez-Zamora, P.; Gorbunov, S.; Goerlich, L.; Gotovac, S.; Grabski, V.; Grachov, O. A.; Graczykowski, L. K.; Graham, K. L.; Grelli, A.; Grigoras, A.; Grigoras, C.; Grigoriev, V.; Grigoryan, A.; Grigoryan, S.; Grinyov, B.; Grion, N.; Gronefeld, J. M.; Grosse-Oetringhaus, J. F.; Grosso, R.; Guber, F.; Guernane, R.; Guerzoni, B.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gunji, T.; Gupta, A.; Haake, R.; Haaland, O.; Hadjidakis, C.; Haiduc, M.; Hamagaki, H.; Hamar, G.; Hamon, J. C.; Harris, J. W.; Harton, A.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hayashi, S.; Heckel, S. T.; Hellbaer, E.; Helstrup, H.; Herghelegiu, A.; Herrera Corral, G.; Hess, B. A.; Hetland, K. F.; Hillemanns, H.; Hippolyte, B.; Horak, D.; Hosokawa, R.; Hristov, P.; Humanic, T. J.; Hussain, N.; Hussain, T.; Hutter, D.; Hwang, D. S.; Ilkaev, R.; Inaba, M.; Incani, E.; Ippolitov, M.; Irfan, M.; Ivanov, M.; Ivanov, V.; Izucheev, V.; Jacazio, N.; Jadhav, M. B.; Jadlovska, S.; Jadlovsky, J.; Jahnke, C.; Jakubowska, M. J.; Jang, H. J.; Janik, M. A.; Jayarathna, P. H. S. Y.; Jena, C.; Jena, S.; Bustamante, R. T. Jimenez; Jones, P. G.; Jusko, A.; Kalinak, P.; Kalweit, A.; Kamin, J.; Kaplin, V.; Kar, S.; Uysal, A. Karasu; Karavichev, O.; Karavicheva, T.; Karayan, L.; Karpechev, E.; Kebschull, U.; Keidel, R.; Keijdener, D. L. D.; Keil, M.; Khan, M. Mohisin; Khan, P.; Khan, S. A.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kharlov, Y.; Kileng, B.; Kim, D. W.; Kim, D. J.; Kim, D.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, M.; Kim, T.; Kirsch, S.; Kisel, I.; Kiselev, S.; Kisiel, A.; Kiss, G.; Klay, J. L.; Klein, C.; Klein-Boesing, C.; Klewin, S.; Kluge, A.; Knichel, M. L.; Knospe, A. G.; Kobdaj, C.; Kofarago, M.; Kollegger, T.; Kolojvari, A.; Kondratiev, V.; Kondratyeva, N.; Kondratyuk, E.; Konevskikh, A.; Kopcik, M.; Kostarakis, P.; Kour, M.; Kouzinopoulos, C.; Kovalenko, O.; Kovalenko, V.; Kowalski, M.; Meethaleveedu, G. Koyithatta; Kralik, I.; Kravcakova, A.; Krivda, M.; Krizek, F.; Kryshen, E.; Krzewicki, M.; Kubera, A. M.; Kucera, V.; Kuijer, P. G.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kumar, S.; Kurashvili, P.; Kurepin, A.; Kurepin, A. B.; Kuryakin, A.; Kweon, M. J.; Kwon, Y.; La Pointe, S. L.; La Rocca, P.; Ladron de Guevara, P.; Lagana Fernandes, C.; Lakomov, I.; Langoy, R.; Lara, C.; Lardeux, A.; Lattuca, A.; Laudi, E.; Lea, R.; Leardini, L.; Lee, G. R.; Lee, S.; Lehas, F.; Lemmon, R. C.; Lenti, V.; Leogrande, E.; Monzon, I. Leon; Leon Vargas, H.; Leoncino, M.; Levai, P.; Lien, J.; Lietava, R.; Lindal, S.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lippmann, C.; Lisa, M. A.; Ljunggren, H. M.; Lodato, D. F.; Loenne, P. I.; Loginov, V.; Loizides, C.; Lopez, X.; Torres, E. Lopez; Lowe, A.; Luettig, P.; Lunardon, M.; Luparello, G.; Lutz, T. H.; Maevskaya, A.; Mager, M.; Mahajan, S.; Mahmood, S. M.; Maire, A.; Majka, R. D.; Malaev, M.; Maldonado Cervantes, I.; Malinina, L.; Mal'Kevich, D.; Malzacher, P.; Mamonov, A.; Manko, V.; Manso, F.; Manzari, V.; Marchisone, M.; Mares, J.; Margagliotti, G. V.; Margotti, A.; Margutti, J.; Marin, A.; Markert, C.; Marquard, M.; Martin, N. A.; Blanco, J. Martin; Martinengo, P.; Martinez, M. I.; Garcia, G. Martinez; Pedreira, M. Martinez; Mas, A.; Masciocchi, S.; Masera, M.; Masoni, A.; Mastroserio, A.; Matyja, A.; Mayer, C.; Mazer, J.; Mazzoni, M. A.; Mcdonald, D.; Meddi, F.; Melikyan, Y.; Menchaca-Rocha, A.; Meninno, E.; Perez, J. Mercado; Meres, M.; Miake, Y.; Mieskolainen, M. M.; Mikhaylov, K.; Milano, L.; Milosevic, J.; Mischke, A.; Mishra, A. N.; Miskowiec, D.; Mitra, J.; Mitu, C. M.; Mohammadi, N.; Mohanty, B.; Molnar, L.; Montano Zetina, L.; Montes, E.; De Godoy, D. A. Moreira; Moreno, L. A. P.; Moretto, S.; Morreale, A.; Morsch, A.; Muccifora, V.; Mudnic, E.; Muehlheim, D.; Muhuri, S.; Mukherjee, M.; Mulligan, J. D.; Munhoz, M. G.; Munzer, R. H.; Murakami, H.; Murray, S.; Musa, L.; Musinsky, J.; Naik, B.; Nair, R.; Nandi, B. K.; Nania, R.; Nappi, E.; Naru, M. U.; Natal da Luz, H.; Nattrass, C.; Navarro, S. R.; Nayak, K.; Nayak, R.; Nayak, T. K.; Nazarenko, S.; Nedosekin, A.; Nellen, L.; Ng, F.; Nicassio, M.; Niculescu, M.; Niedziela, J.; Nielsen, B. S.; Nikolaev, S.; Nikulin, S.; Nikulin, V.; Noferini, F.; Nomokonov, P.; Nooren, G.; Noris, J. C. C.; Norman, J.; Nyanin, A.; Nystrand, J.; Oeschler, H.; Oh, S.; Oh, S. K.; Ohlson, A.; Okatan, A.; Okubo, T.; Olah, L.; Oleniacz, J.; Oliveira Da Silva, A. C.; Oliver, M. H.; Onderwaater, J.; Oppedisano, C.; Orava, R.; Oravec, M.; Ortiz Velasquez, A.; Oskarsson, A.; Otwinowski, J.; Oyama, K.; Ozdemir, M.; Pachmayer, Y.; Pagano, D.; Pagano, P.; Paic, G.; Pal, S. K.; Pan, J.; Papikyan, V.; Pappalardo, G. S.; Pareek, P.; Park, W. J.; Parmar, S.; Passfeld, A.; Paticchio, V.; Patra, R. N.; Paul, B.; Pei, H.; Peitzmann, T.; Da Costa, H. Pereira; Peresunko, D.; Lara, C. E. Perez; Lezama, E. Perez; Peskov, V.; Pestov, Y.; Petracek, V.; Petrov, V.; Petrovici, M.; Petta, C.; Piano, S.; Pikna, M.; Pillot, P.; Pimentel, L. O. D. L.; Pinazza, O.; Pinsky, L.; Piyarathna, D. B.; Ploskon, M.; Planinic, M.; Pluta, J.; Pochybova, S.; Podesta-Lerma, P. L. M.; Poghosyan, M. G.; Polichtchouk, B.; Poljak, N.; Poonsawat, W.; Pop, A.; Porteboeuf-Houssais, S.; Porter, J.; Pospisil, J.; Prasad, S. K.; Preghenella, R.; Prino, F.; Pruneau, C. A.; Pshenichnov, I.; Puccio, M.; Puddu, G.; Pujahari, P.; Punin, V.; Putschke, J.; Qvigstad, H.; Rachevski, A.; Raha, S.; Rajput, S.; Rak, J.; Rakotozafindrabe, A.; Ramello, L.; Rami, F.; Raniwala, R.; Raniwala, S.; Raesaenen, S. S.; Rascanu, B. T.; Rathee, D.; Read, K. F.; Redlich, K.; Reed, R. J.; Reichelt, P.; Reidt, F.; Ren, X.; Renfordt, R.; Reolon, A. R.; Reshetin, A.; Reygers, K.; Riabov, V.; Ricci, R. A.; Richert, T.; Richter, M.; Riedler, P.; Riegler, W.; Riggi, F.; Ristea, C.; Rocco, E.; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, M.; Manso, A. Rodriguez; Roed, K.; Rogochaya, E.; Rohr, D.; Roehrich, D.; Ronchetti, F.; Ronflette, L.; Rosnet, P.; Rossi, A.; Roukoutakis, F.; Roy, A.; Roy, C.; Roy, P.; Montero, A. J. Rubio; Rui, R.; Russo, R.; Ryabinkin, E.; Ryabov, Y.; Rybicki, A.; Saarinen, S.; Sadhu, S.; Sadovsky, S.; Safarik, K.; Sahlmuller, B.; Sahoo, P.; Sahoo, R.; Sahoo, S.; Sahu, P. K.; Saini, J.; Sakai, S.; Saleh, M. A.; Salzwedel, J.; Sambyal, S.; Samsonov, V.; Sandor, L.; Sandoval, A.; Sano, M.; Sarkar, D.; Sarkar, N.; Sarma, P.; Scapparone, E.; Scarlassara, F.; Schiaua, C.; Schicker, R.; Schmidt, C.; Schmidt, H. R.; Schuchmann, S.; Schukraft, J.; Schulc, M.; Schutz, Y.; Schwarz, K.; Schweda, K.; Scioli, G.; Scomparin, E.; Scott, R.; Sefcik, M.; Seger, J. E.; Sekiguchi, Y.; Sekihata, D.; Selyuzhenkov, I.; Senosi, K.; Senyukov, S.; Serradilla, E.; Sevcenco, A.; Shabanov, A.; Shabetai, A.; Shadura, O.; Shahoyan, R.; Shahzad, M. I.; Shangaraev, A.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, N.; Sheikh, A. I.; Shigaki, K.; Shou, Q.; Shtejer, K.; Sibiriak, Y.; Siddhanta, S.; Sielewicz, K. M.; Siemiarczuk, T.; Silvermyr, D.; Silvestre, C.; Simatovic, G.; Simonetti, G.; Singaraju, R.; Singh, R.; Singha, S.; Singhal, V.; Sinha, B. C.; Sinha, T.; Sitar, B.; Sitta, M.; Skaali, T. B.; Slupecki, M.; Smirnov, N.; Snellings, R. J. M.; Snellman, T. W.; Song, J.; Song, M.; Song, Z.; Soramel, F.; Sorensen, S.; de Souza, R. D.; Sozzi, F.; Spacek, M.; Spiriti, E.; Sputowska, I.; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, M.; Stachel, J.; Stan, I.; Stankus, P.; Stenlund, E.; Steyn, G.; Stiller, J. H.; Stocco, D.; Strmen, P.; Suaide, A. A. P.; Sugitate, T.; Suire, C.; Suleymanov, M.; Suljic, M.; Sultanov, R.; Sumbera, M.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Szabo, A.; Szanto de Toledo, A.; Szarka, I.; Szczepankiewicz, A.; Szymanski, M.; Tabassam, U.; Takahashi, J.; Tambave, G. J.; Tanaka, N.; Tarhini, M.; Tariq, M.; Tarzila, M. G.; Tauro, A.; Tejeda Munoz, G.; Telesca, A.; Terasaki, K.; Terrevoli, C.; Teyssier, B.; Thaeder, J.; Thakur, D.; Thomas, D.; Tieulent, R.; Timmins, A. R.; Toia, A.; Trogolo, S.; Trombetta, G.; Trubnikov, V.; Trzaska, W. H.; Tsuji, T.; Tumkin, A.; Turrisi, R.; Tveter, T. S.; Ullaland, K.; Uras, A.; Usai, G. L.; Utrobicic, A.; Vala, M.; Palomo, L. Valencia; Vallero, S.; Van Der Maarel, J.; Van Hoorne, J. W.; van Leeuwen, M.; Vanat, T.; Vyvre, P. Vande; Varga, D.; Vargas, A.; Vargyas, M.; Varma, R.; Vasileiou, M.; Vasiliev, A.; Vauthier, A.; Vechernin, V.; Veen, A. M.; Veldhoen, M.; Velure, A.; Vercellin, E.; Vergara Limon, S.; Vernet, R.; Verweij, M.; Vickovic, L.; Viesti, G.; Viinikainen, J.; Vilakazi, Z.; Baillie, O. Villalobos; Villatoro Tello, A.; Vinogradov, A.; Vinogradov, L.; Vinogradov, Y.; Virgili, T.; Vislavicius, V.; Viyogi, Y. P.; Vodopyanov, A.; Voelkl, M. A.; Voloshin, K.; Voloshin, S. A.; Volpe, G.; von Haller, B.; Vorobyev, I.; Vranic, D.; Vrlakova, J.; Vulpescu, B.; Wagner, B.; Wagner, J.; Wang, H.; Watanabe, D.; Watanabe, Y.; Weiser, D. F.; Westerhoff, U.; Whitehead, A. M.; Wiechula, J.; Wikne, J.; Wilk, G.; Wilkinson, J.; Williams, M. C. S.; Windelband, B.; Winn, M.; Yang, H.; Yano, S.; Yasin, Z.; Yokoyama, H.; Yoo, I. -K.; Yoon, J. H.; Yurchenko, V.; Yushmanov, I.; Zaborowska, A.; Zaccolo, V.; Zaman, A.; Zampolli, C.; Zanoli, H. J. C.; Zaporozhets, S.; Zardoshti, N.; Zarochentsev, A.; Zavada, P.; Zaviyalov, N.; Zbroszczyk, H.; Zgura, I. S.; Zhalov, M.; Zhang, C.; Zhao, C.; Zhigareva, N.; Zhou, Y.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, H.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, A.; Zimmermann, M. B.; Zinovjev, G.; Zyzak, M.; Collaboration, ALICE

    2016-01-01

    We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian

  14. Bayesian Network for multiple hypthesis tracking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zajdel, W.P.; Kröse, B.J.A.; Blockeel, H.; Denecker, M.

    2002-01-01

    For a flexible camera-to-camera tracking of multiple objects we model the objects behavior with a Bayesian network and combine it with the multiple hypohesis framework that associates observations with objects. Bayesian networks offer a possibility to factor complex, joint distributions into a

  15. Bayesian learning theory applied to human cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Robert A; Kruschke, John K

    2011-01-01

    Probabilistic models based on Bayes' rule are an increasingly popular approach to understanding human cognition. Bayesian models allow immense representational latitude and complexity. Because they use normative Bayesian mathematics to process those representations, they define optimal performance on a given task. This article focuses on key mechanisms of Bayesian information processing, and provides numerous examples illustrating Bayesian approaches to the study of human cognition. We start by providing an overview of Bayesian modeling and Bayesian networks. We then describe three types of information processing operations-inference, parameter learning, and structure learning-in both Bayesian networks and human cognition. This is followed by a discussion of the important roles of prior knowledge and of active learning. We conclude by outlining some challenges for Bayesian models of human cognition that will need to be addressed by future research. WIREs Cogn Sci 2011 2 8-21 DOI: 10.1002/wcs.80 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Properties of the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Sande, Brett

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian Knowledge Tracing is used very widely to model student learning. It comes in two different forms: The first form is the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing "hidden Markov model" which predicts the probability of correct application of a skill as a function of the number of previous opportunities to apply that skill and the model…

  17. Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner

    2003-01-01

    and secondly, to gain efficiency during modification of an object oriented Bayesian network. To accomplish these two goals we have exploited a mechanism allowing local triangulation of instances to develop a method for updating the junction trees associated with object oriented Bayesian networks in highly...

  18. Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

  19. Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

  20. Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego

    2007-01-01

    This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

  1. Comparison of Two Forced Alignment Systems for Aligning Bribri Speech

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rolando Coto-Solano

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Forced alignment provides drastic savings in time when aligning speech recordings and is particularly useful for the study of Indigenous languages, which are severely under-resourced in corpora and models. Here we compare two forced alignment systems, FAVE-align and EasyAlign, to determine which one provides more precision when processing running speech in the Chibchan language Bribri. We aligned a segment of a story narrated in Bribri and compared the errors in finding the center of the words and the edges of phonemes when compared with the manual correction. FAVE-align showed better performance: It has an error of 7% compared to 24% with EasyAlign when finding the center of words, and errors of 22~24 ms when finding the edges of phonemes, compared to errors of 86~130 ms with EasyAlign. In addition to this, EasyAlign failed to detect 7% of phonemes, while also inserting 58 spurious phones into the transcription. Future research includes verifying these results for other genres and other Chibchan languages. Finally, these results provide additional evidence for the applicability of natural language processing methods to Chibchan languages and point to future work such as the construction of corpora and the training of automated speech recognition systems.

  2. Flexible Bayesian Human Fecundity Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sungduk; Sundaram, Rajeshwari; Buck Louis, Germaine M; Pyper, Cecilia

    2012-12-01

    Human fecundity is an issue of considerable interest for both epidemiological and clinical audiences, and is dependent upon a couple's biologic capacity for reproduction coupled with behaviors that place a couple at risk for pregnancy. Bayesian hierarchical models have been proposed to better model the conception probabilities by accounting for the acts of intercourse around the day of ovulation, i.e., during the fertile window. These models can be viewed in the framework of a generalized nonlinear model with an exponential link. However, a fixed choice of link function may not always provide the best fit, leading to potentially biased estimates for probability of conception. Motivated by this, we propose a general class of models for fecundity by relaxing the choice of the link function under the generalized nonlinear model framework. We use a sample from the Oxford Conception Study (OCS) to illustrate the utility and fit of this general class of models for estimating human conception. Our findings reinforce the need for attention to be paid to the choice of link function in modeling conception, as it may bias the estimation of conception probabilities. Various properties of the proposed models are examined and a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm was developed for implementing the Bayesian computations. The deviance information criterion measure and logarithm of pseudo marginal likelihood are used for guiding the choice of links. The supplemental material section contains technical details of the proof of the theorem stated in the paper, and contains further simulation results and analysis.

  3. Bayesian Nonparametric Longitudinal Data Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintana, Fernando A; Johnson, Wesley O; Waetjen, Elaine; Gold, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    Practical Bayesian nonparametric methods have been developed across a wide variety of contexts. Here, we develop a novel statistical model that generalizes standard mixed models for longitudinal data that include flexible mean functions as well as combined compound symmetry (CS) and autoregressive (AR) covariance structures. AR structure is often specified through the use of a Gaussian process (GP) with covariance functions that allow longitudinal data to be more correlated if they are observed closer in time than if they are observed farther apart. We allow for AR structure by considering a broader class of models that incorporates a Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) over the covariance parameters of the GP. We are able to take advantage of modern Bayesian statistical methods in making full predictive inferences and about characteristics of longitudinal profiles and their differences across covariate combinations. We also take advantage of the generality of our model, which provides for estimation of a variety of covariance structures. We observe that models that fail to incorporate CS or AR structure can result in very poor estimation of a covariance or correlation matrix. In our illustration using hormone data observed on women through the menopausal transition, biology dictates the use of a generalized family of sigmoid functions as a model for time trends across subpopulation categories.

  4. BELM: Bayesian extreme learning machine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soria-Olivas, Emilio; Gómez-Sanchis, Juan; Martín, José D; Vila-Francés, Joan; Martínez, Marcelino; Magdalena, José R; Serrano, Antonio J

    2011-03-01

    The theory of extreme learning machine (ELM) has become very popular on the last few years. ELM is a new approach for learning the parameters of the hidden layers of a multilayer neural network (as the multilayer perceptron or the radial basis function neural network). Its main advantage is the lower computational cost, which is especially relevant when dealing with many patterns defined in a high-dimensional space. This brief proposes a bayesian approach to ELM, which presents some advantages over other approaches: it allows the introduction of a priori knowledge; obtains the confidence intervals (CIs) without the need of applying methods that are computationally intensive, e.g., bootstrap; and presents high generalization capabilities. Bayesian ELM is benchmarked against classical ELM in several artificial and real datasets that are widely used for the evaluation of machine learning algorithms. Achieved results show that the proposed approach produces a competitive accuracy with some additional advantages, namely, automatic production of CIs, reduction of probability of model overfitting, and use of a priori knowledge.

  5. 2nd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

    CERN Document Server

    Bitto, Angela; Kastner, Gregor; Posekany, Alexandra

    2015-01-01

    The Second Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (BAYSM 2014) and the research presented here facilitate connections among researchers using Bayesian Statistics by providing a forum for the development and exchange of ideas. WU Vienna University of Business and Economics hosted BAYSM 2014 from September 18th to 19th. The guidance of renowned plenary lecturers and senior discussants is a critical part of the meeting and this volume, which follows publication of contributions from BAYSM 2013. The meeting's scientific program reflected the variety of fields in which Bayesian methods are currently employed or could be introduced in the future. Three brilliant keynote lectures by Chris Holmes (University of Oxford), Christian Robert (Université Paris-Dauphine), and Mike West (Duke University), were complemented by 24 plenary talks covering the major topics Dynamic Models, Applications, Bayesian Nonparametrics, Biostatistics, Bayesian Methods in Economics, and Models and Methods, as well as a lively poster session ...

  6. Bayesian natural language semantics and pragmatics

    CERN Document Server

    Zeevat, Henk

    2015-01-01

    The contributions in this volume focus on the Bayesian interpretation of natural languages, which is widely used in areas of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and computational linguistics. This is the first volume to take up topics in Bayesian Natural Language Interpretation and make proposals based on information theory, probability theory, and related fields. The methodologies offered here extend to the target semantic and pragmatic analyses of computational natural language interpretation. Bayesian approaches to natural language semantics and pragmatics are based on methods from signal processing and the causal Bayesian models pioneered by especially Pearl. In signal processing, the Bayesian method finds the most probable interpretation by finding the one that maximizes the product of the prior probability and the likelihood of the interpretation. It thus stresses the importance of a production model for interpretation as in Grice's contributions to pragmatics or in interpretation by abduction.

  7. Crystal structure prediction accelerated by Bayesian optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Tomoki; Sato, Nobuya; Kino, Hiori; Miyake, Takashi; Tsuda, Koji; Oguchi, Tamio

    2018-01-01

    We propose a crystal structure prediction method based on Bayesian optimization. Our method is classified as a selection-type algorithm which is different from evolution-type algorithms such as an evolutionary algorithm and particle swarm optimization. Crystal structure prediction with Bayesian optimization can efficiently select the most stable structure from a large number of candidate structures with a lower number of searching trials using a machine learning technique. Crystal structure prediction using Bayesian optimization combined with random search is applied to known systems such as NaCl and Y2Co17 to discuss the efficiency of Bayesian optimization. These results demonstrate that Bayesian optimization can significantly reduce the number of searching trials required to find the global minimum structure by 30-40% in comparison with pure random search, which leads to much less computational cost.

  8. Pareto optimal pairwise sequence alignment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeRonne, Kevin W; Karypis, George

    2013-01-01

    Sequence alignment using evolutionary profiles is a commonly employed tool when investigating a protein. Many profile-profile scoring functions have been developed for use in such alignments, but there has not yet been a comprehensive study of Pareto optimal pairwise alignments for combining multiple such functions. We show that the problem of generating Pareto optimal pairwise alignments has an optimal substructure property, and develop an efficient algorithm for generating Pareto optimal frontiers of pairwise alignments. All possible sets of two, three, and four profile scoring functions are used from a pool of 11 functions and applied to 588 pairs of proteins in the ce_ref data set. The performance of the best objective combinations on ce_ref is also evaluated on an independent set of 913 protein pairs extracted from the BAliBASE RV11 data set. Our dynamic-programming-based heuristic approach produces approximated Pareto optimal frontiers of pairwise alignments that contain comparable alignments to those on the exact frontier, but on average in less than 1/58th the time in the case of four objectives. Our results show that the Pareto frontiers contain alignments whose quality is better than the alignments obtained by single objectives. However, the task of identifying a single high-quality alignment among those in the Pareto frontier remains challenging.

  9. All about alignment

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    The ALICE absorbers, iron wall and superstructure have been installed with great precision. The ALICE front absorber, positioned in the centre of the detector, has been installed and aligned. Weighing more than 400 tonnes, the ALICE absorbers and the surrounding support structures have been installed and aligned with a precision of 1-2 mm, hardly an easy task but a very important one. The ALICE absorbers are made of three parts: the front absorber, a 35-tonne cone-shaped structure, and two small-angle absorbers, long straight cylinder sections weighing 18 and 40 tonnes. The three pieces lined up have a total length of about 17 m. In addition to these, ALICE technicians have installed a 300-tonne iron filter wall made of blocks that fit together like large Lego pieces and a surrounding metal support structure to hold the tracking and trigger chambers. The absorbers house the vacuum chamber and are also the reference surface for the positioning of the tracking and trigger chambers. For this reason, the ab...

  10. Nova laser alignment control system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Arsdall, P.J.; Holloway, F.W.; McGuigan, D.L.; Shelton, R.T.

    1984-01-01

    Alignment of the Nova laser requires control of hundreds of optical components in the ten beam paths. Extensive application of computer technology makes daily alignment practical. The control system is designed in a manner which provides both centralized and local manual operator controls integrated with automatic closed loop alignment. Menudriven operator consoles using high resolution color graphics displays overlaid with transport touch panels allow laser personnel to interact efficiently with the computer system. Automatic alignment is accomplished by using image analysis techniques to determine beam references points from video images acquired along the laser chain. A major goal of the design is to contribute substantially to rapid experimental turnaround and consistent alignment results. This paper describes the computer-based control structure and the software methods developed for aligning this large laser system

  11. Onorbit IMU alignment error budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corson, R. W.

    1980-01-01

    The Star Tracker, Crew Optical Alignment Sight (COAS), and Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) from a complex navigation system with a multitude of error sources were combined. A complete list of the system errors is presented. The errors were combined in a rational way to yield an estimate of the IMU alignment accuracy for STS-1. The expected standard deviation in the IMU alignment error for STS-1 type alignments was determined to be 72 arc seconds per axis for star tracker alignments and 188 arc seconds per axis for COAS alignments. These estimates are based on current knowledge of the star tracker, COAS, IMU, and navigation base error specifications, and were partially verified by preliminary Monte Carlo analysis.

  12. Bayesian Approach to Inverse Problems

    CERN Document Server

    2008-01-01

    Many scientific, medical or engineering problems raise the issue of recovering some physical quantities from indirect measurements; for instance, detecting or quantifying flaws or cracks within a material from acoustic or electromagnetic measurements at its surface is an essential problem of non-destructive evaluation. The concept of inverse problems precisely originates from the idea of inverting the laws of physics to recover a quantity of interest from measurable data.Unfortunately, most inverse problems are ill-posed, which means that precise and stable solutions are not easy to devise. Regularization is the key concept to solve inverse problems.The goal of this book is to deal with inverse problems and regularized solutions using the Bayesian statistical tools, with a particular view to signal and image estimation

  13. Bayesian modelling of fusion diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, R.; Dinklage, A.; Pasch, E.

    2003-07-01

    Integrated data analysis of fusion diagnostics is the combination of different, heterogeneous diagnostics in order to improve physics knowledge and reduce the uncertainties of results. One example is the validation of profiles of plasma quantities. Integration of different diagnostics requires systematic and formalized error analysis for all uncertainties involved. The Bayesian probability theory (BPT) allows a systematic combination of all information entering the measurement descriptive model that considers all uncertainties of the measured data, calibration measurements, physical model parameters and measurement nuisance parameters. A sensitivity analysis of model parameters allows crucial uncertainties to be found, which has an impact on both diagnostic improvement and design. The systematic statistical modelling within the BPT is used for reconstructing electron density and electron temperature profiles from Thomson scattering data from the Wendelstein 7-AS stellarator. The inclusion of different diagnostics and first-principle information is discussed in terms of improvements.

  14. Bayesian networks in educational assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Almond, Russell G; Steinberg, Linda S; Yan, Duanli; Williamson, David M

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian inference networks, a synthesis of statistics and expert systems, have advanced reasoning under uncertainty in medicine, business, and social sciences. This innovative volume is the first comprehensive treatment exploring how they can be applied to design and analyze innovative educational assessments. Part I develops Bayes nets’ foundations in assessment, statistics, and graph theory, and works through the real-time updating algorithm. Part II addresses parametric forms for use with assessment, model-checking techniques, and estimation with the EM algorithm and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A unique feature is the volume’s grounding in Evidence-Centered Design (ECD) framework for assessment design. This “design forward” approach enables designers to take full advantage of Bayes nets’ modularity and ability to model complex evidentiary relationships that arise from performance in interactive, technology-rich assessments such as simulations. Part III describes ECD, situates Bayes nets as ...

  15. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

    Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...... sections, in addition to fully-updated examples, tables, figures, and a revised appendix. Intended primarily for practitioners, this book does not require sophisticated mathematical skills or deep understanding of the underlying theory and methods nor does it discuss alternative technologies for reasoning...... under uncertainty. The theory and methods presented are illustrated through more than 140 examples, and exercises are included for the reader to check his or her level of understanding. The techniques and methods presented on model construction and verification, modeling techniques and tricks, learning...

  16. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen Ringi, M.

    1995-05-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.

  17. Nonparametric Bayesian inference in biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter

    2015-01-01

    As chapters in this book demonstrate, BNP has important uses in clinical sciences and inference for issues like unknown partitions in genomics. Nonparametric Bayesian approaches (BNP) play an ever expanding role in biostatistical inference from use in proteomics to clinical trials. Many research problems involve an abundance of data and require flexible and complex probability models beyond the traditional parametric approaches. As this book's expert contributors show, BNP approaches can be the answer. Survival Analysis, in particular survival regression, has traditionally used BNP, but BNP's potential is now very broad. This applies to important tasks like arrangement of patients into clinically meaningful subpopulations and segmenting the genome into functionally distinct regions. This book is designed to both review and introduce application areas for BNP. While existing books provide theoretical foundations, this book connects theory to practice through engaging examples and research questions. Chapters c...

  18. Bayesian Kernel Mixtures for Counts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canale, Antonio; Dunson, David B

    2011-12-01

    Although Bayesian nonparametric mixture models for continuous data are well developed, there is a limited literature on related approaches for count data. A common strategy is to use a mixture of Poissons, which unfortunately is quite restrictive in not accounting for distributions having variance less than the mean. Other approaches include mixing multinomials, which requires finite support, and using a Dirichlet process prior with a Poisson base measure, which does not allow smooth deviations from the Poisson. As a broad class of alternative models, we propose to use nonparametric mixtures of rounded continuous kernels. An efficient Gibbs sampler is developed for posterior computation, and a simulation study is performed to assess performance. Focusing on the rounded Gaussian case, we generalize the modeling framework to account for multivariate count data, joint modeling with continuous and categorical variables, and other complications. The methods are illustrated through applications to a developmental toxicity study and marketing data. This article has supplementary material online.

  19. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen Ringi, M.

    1995-01-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person's state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs

  20. A Bayesian Reflection on Surfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David R. Wolf

    1999-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: The topic of this paper is a novel Bayesian continuous-basis field representation and inference framework. Within this paper several problems are solved: The maximally informative inference of continuous-basis fields, that is where the basis for the field is itself a continuous object and not representable in a finite manner; the tradeoff between accuracy of representation in terms of information learned, and memory or storage capacity in bits; the approximation of probability distributions so that a maximal amount of information about the object being inferred is preserved; an information theoretic justification for multigrid methodology. The maximally informative field inference framework is described in full generality and denoted the Generalized Kalman Filter. The Generalized Kalman Filter allows the update of field knowledge from previous knowledge at any scale, and new data, to new knowledge at any other scale. An application example instance, the inference of continuous surfaces from measurements (for example, camera image data, is presented.

  1. Alignment of helical membrane protein sequences using AlignMe.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus Stamm

    Full Text Available Few sequence alignment methods have been designed specifically for integral membrane proteins, even though these important proteins have distinct evolutionary and structural properties that might affect their alignments. Existing approaches typically consider membrane-related information either by using membrane-specific substitution matrices or by assigning distinct penalties for gap creation in transmembrane and non-transmembrane regions. Here, we ask whether favoring matching of predicted transmembrane segments within a standard dynamic programming algorithm can improve the accuracy of pairwise membrane protein sequence alignments. We tested various strategies using a specifically designed program called AlignMe. An updated set of homologous membrane protein structures, called HOMEP2, was used as a reference for optimizing the gap penalties. The best of the membrane-protein optimized approaches were then tested on an independent reference set of membrane protein sequence alignments from the BAliBASE collection. When secondary structure (S matching was combined with evolutionary information (using a position-specific substitution matrix (P, in an approach we called AlignMePS, the resultant pairwise alignments were typically among the most accurate over a broad range of sequence similarities when compared to available methods. Matching transmembrane predictions (T, in addition to evolutionary information, and secondary-structure predictions, in an approach called AlignMePST, generally reduces the accuracy of the alignments of closely-related proteins in the BAliBASE set relative to AlignMePS, but may be useful in cases of extremely distantly related proteins for which sequence information is less informative. The open source AlignMe code is available at https://sourceforge.net/projects/alignme/, and at http://www.forrestlab.org, along with an online server and the HOMEP2 data set.

  2. An enhanced RNA alignment benchmark for sequence alignment programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steger Gerhard

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The performance of alignment programs is traditionally tested on sets of protein sequences, of which a reference alignment is known. Conclusions drawn from such protein benchmarks do not necessarily hold for the RNA alignment problem, as was demonstrated in the first RNA alignment benchmark published so far. For example, the twilight zone – the similarity range where alignment quality drops drastically – starts at 60 % for RNAs in comparison to 20 % for proteins. In this study we enhance the previous benchmark. Results The RNA sequence sets in the benchmark database are taken from an increased number of RNA families to avoid unintended impact by using only a few families. The size of sets varies from 2 to 15 sequences to assess the influence of the number of sequences on program performance. Alignment quality is scored by two measures: one takes into account only nucleotide matches, the other measures structural conservation. The performance order of parameters – like nucleotide substitution matrices and gap-costs – as well as of programs is rated by rank tests. Conclusion Most sequence alignment programs perform equally well on RNA sequence sets with high sequence identity, that is with an average pairwise sequence identity (APSI above 75 %. Parameters for gap-open and gap-extension have a large influence on alignment quality lower than APSI ≤ 75 %; optimal parameter combinations are shown for several programs. The use of different 4 × 4 substitution matrices improved program performance only in some cases. The performance of iterative programs drastically increases with increasing sequence numbers and/or decreasing sequence identity, which makes them clearly superior to programs using a purely non-iterative, progressive approach. The best sequence alignment programs produce alignments of high quality down to APSI > 55 %; at lower APSI the use of sequence+structure alignment programs is recommended.

  3. Robust bayesian analysis of an autoregressive model with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this work, robust Bayesian analysis of the Bayesian estimation of an autoregressive model with exponential innovations is performed. Using a Bayesian robustness methodology, we show that, using a suitable generalized quadratic loss, we obtain optimal Bayesian estimators of the parameters corresponding to the ...

  4. Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists

    CERN Document Server

    Hobbs, N Thompson

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili

  5. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

    2006-01-01

    We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...... by evaluating and differentiating these circuits in time linear in their size. We report on experimental results showing successful compilation and efficient inference on relational Bayesian networks, whose PRIMULA--generated propositional instances have thousands of variables, and whose jointrees have clusters...

  6. Mask alignment system for semiconductor processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Aaron P.; Carlson, Charles T.; Weaver, William T.; Grant, Christopher N.

    2017-02-14

    A mask alignment system for providing precise and repeatable alignment between ion implantation masks and workpieces. The system includes a mask frame having a plurality of ion implantation masks loosely connected thereto. The mask frame is provided with a plurality of frame alignment cavities, and each mask is provided with a plurality of mask alignment cavities. The system further includes a platen for holding workpieces. The platen may be provided with a plurality of mask alignment pins and frame alignment pins configured to engage the mask alignment cavities and frame alignment cavities, respectively. The mask frame can be lowered onto the platen, with the frame alignment cavities moving into registration with the frame alignment pins to provide rough alignment between the masks and workpieces. The mask alignment cavities are then moved into registration with the mask alignment pins, thereby shifting each individual mask into precise alignment with a respective workpiece.

  7. Catalyzing alignment processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, Erik Hagelskjær; Jørgensen, Ulrik

    2004-01-01

    time and in combination with other social processes establish more aligned and standardized environmental performance between countries. However, examples of the introduction of environmental management suggests that EMS’ only plays a minor role in developing the actual environmental objectives......This paper describes how environmental management systems (EMS) spur the circulation of processes that support the constitution of environmental issues as specific environ¬mental objects and objectives. EMS catalyzes alignmentprocesses that produce coherence among the different elements involved....... They are here used to describe the context in which environmental management is implemented. Based on findings from contributions to a research program studying the implementation and impact of EMS in different settings, we highlight the diverse roles that these systems play in the Thai context. EMS may over...

  8. Bayesian estimation and modeling: Editorial to the second special issue on Bayesian data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Sy-Miin; Hoijtink, Herbert

    2017-12-01

    This editorial accompanies the second special issue on Bayesian data analysis published in this journal. The emphases of this issue are on Bayesian estimation and modeling. In this editorial, we outline the basics of current Bayesian estimation techniques and some notable developments in the statistical literature, as well as adaptations and extensions by psychological researchers to better tailor to the modeling applications in psychology. We end with a discussion on future outlooks of Bayesian data analysis in psychology. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buslik, A.

    1994-01-01

    A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given

  10. Bayesian analysis for the social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Jackman, Simon

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian methods are increasingly being used in the social sciences, as the problems encountered lend themselves so naturally to the subjective qualities of Bayesian methodology. This book provides an accessible introduction to Bayesian methods, tailored specifically for social science students. It contains lots of real examples from political science, psychology, sociology, and economics, exercises in all chapters, and detailed descriptions of all the key concepts, without assuming any background in statistics beyond a first course. It features examples of how to implement the methods using WinBUGS - the most-widely used Bayesian analysis software in the world - and R - an open-source statistical software. The book is supported by a Website featuring WinBUGS and R code, and data sets.

  11. Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji

    2018-01-01

    An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.

  12. Bayesian Statistics の源流

    OpenAIRE

    新家, 健精

    1991-01-01

    © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. All rights reserved. Article Outline: Glossary Definition of the Subject and Introduction The Bayesian Statistical Paradigm Three Examples Comparison with the Frequentist Statistical Paradigm Future Directions Bibliography

  13. An overview on Approximate Bayesian computation*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baragatti Meïli

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation techniques, also called likelihood-free methods, are one of the most satisfactory approach to intractable likelihood problems. This overview presents recent results since its introduction about ten years ago in population genetics.

  14. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  15. A Bayesian concept learning approach to crowdsourcing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viappiani, P.; Zilles, S.; Hamilton, H.J.

    2011-01-01

    We develop a Bayesian approach to concept learning for crowdsourcing applications. A probabilistic belief over possible concept definitions is maintained and updated according to (noisy) observations from experts, whose behaviors are modeled using discrete types. We propose recommendation...

  16. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, Vikas; Farr, Anna Charisse; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K D V

    2014-01-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++

  17. A Bayesian Network Approach to Ontology Mapping

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pan, Rong; Ding, Zhongli; Yu, Yang; Peng, Yun

    2005-01-01

    .... In this approach, the source and target ontologies are first translated into Bayesian networks (BN); the concept mapping between the two ontologies are treated as evidential reasoning between the two translated BNs...

  18. Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2009-02-01

    Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly, it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism and thus avoids essentially the local-trap problem suffered by conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches in learning Bayesian networks. Secondly, it falls into the class of dynamic importance sampling algorithms; the network features can be inferred by dynamically weighted averaging the samples generated in the learning process, and the resulting estimates can have much lower variation than the single model-based estimates. The numerical results indicate that our approach can mix much faster over the space of Bayesian networks than the conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Lexical alignment in triadic communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anouschka eFoltz

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Lexical alignment refers to the adoption of one’s interlocutor’s lexical items. Accounts of the mechanisms underlying such lexical alignment differ (among other aspects in the role assigned to addressee-centered behavior. In this study, we used a triadic communicative situation to test which factors may modulate the extent to which participants’ lexical alignment reflects addressee-centered behavior. Pairs of naïve participants played a picture matching game and received information about the order in which pictures were to be matched from a voice over headphones. On critical trials, participants did or did not hear a name for the picture to be matched next over headphones. Importantly, when the voice over headphones provided a name, it did not match the name that the interlocutor had previously used to describe the object. Participants overwhelmingly used the word that the voice over headphones provided. This result points to non-addressee-centered behavior and is discussed in terms of disrupting alignment with the interlocutor as well as in terms of establishing alignment with the voice over headphones. In addition, the type of picture (line drawing vs. tangram shape independently modulated lexical alignment, such that participants showed more lexical alignment to their interlocutor for (more ambiguous tangram shapes compared to line drawings. Overall, the results point to a rather large role for non-addressee-centered behavior during lexical alignment.

  20. CATO: The Clone Alignment Tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter V Henstock

    Full Text Available High-throughput cloning efforts produce large numbers of sequences that need to be aligned, edited, compared with reference sequences, and organized as files and selected clones. Different pieces of software are typically required to perform each of these tasks. We have designed a single piece of software, CATO, the Clone Alignment Tool, that allows a user to align, evaluate, edit, and select clone sequences based on comparisons to reference sequences. The input and output are designed to be compatible with standard data formats, and thus suitable for integration into a clone processing pipeline. CATO provides both sequence alignment and visualizations to facilitate the analysis of cloning experiments. The alignment algorithm matches each of the relevant candidate sequences against each reference sequence. The visualization portion displays three levels of matching: 1 a top-level summary of the top candidate sequences aligned to each reference sequence, 2 a focused alignment view with the nucleotides of matched sequences displayed against one reference sequence, and 3 a pair-wise alignment of a single reference and candidate sequence pair. Users can select the minimum matching criteria for valid clones, edit or swap reference sequences, and export the results to a summary file as part of the high-throughput cloning workflow.

  1. Vacuum Alignment with more Flavors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ryttov, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    We study the alignment of the vacuum in gauge theories with $N_f$ Dirac fermions transforming according to a complex representation of the gauge group. The alignment of the vacuum is produced by adding a small mass perturbation to the theory. We study in detail the $N_f=2,3$ and $4$ case. For $N_...

  2. Bayesian networks for management of industrial risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munteanu, P.; Debache, G.; Duval, C.

    2008-01-01

    This article presents the outlines of Bayesian networks modelling and argues for their interest in the probabilistic studies of industrial risk and reliability. A practical case representative of this type of study is presented in support of the argumentation. The article concludes on some research tracks aiming at improving the performances of the methods relying on Bayesian networks and at widening their application area in risk management. (authors)

  3. MCMC for parameters estimation by bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ait Saadi, H.; Ykhlef, F.; Guessoum, A.

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses the parameter estimation for dynamic system by a Bayesian approach associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). The MCMC methods are powerful for approximating complex integrals, simulating joint distributions, and the estimation of marginal posterior distributions, or posterior means. The MetropolisHastings algorithm has been widely used in Bayesian inference to approximate posterior densities. Calibrating the proposal distribution is one of the main issues of MCMC simulation in order to accelerate the convergence.

  4. Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 369, č. 1 (2016), s. 532-547 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Ideal distribution * Minimum cross- entropy principle * Bayesian conditioning * Kullback-Leibler divergence * Bayesian nonparametric modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.832, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/karny-0463052.pdf

  5. Capturing Business Cycles from a Bayesian Viewpoint

    OpenAIRE

    大鋸, 崇

    2011-01-01

    This paper is a survey of empirical studies analyzing business cycles from the perspective of Bayesian econometrics. Kim and Nelson (1998) use a hybrid model; Dynamic factor model of Stock and Watson (1989) and Markov switching model of Hamilton (1989). From the point of view, it is more important dealing with non-linear and non-Gaussian econometric models, recently. Although the classical econometric approaches have difficulty in these models, the Bayesian's do easily. The fact leads heavy u...

  6. Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-09

    inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle

  7. A Bayesian classifier for symbol recognition

    OpenAIRE

    Barrat , Sabine; Tabbone , Salvatore; Nourrissier , Patrick

    2007-01-01

    URL : http://www.buyans.com/POL/UploadedFile/134_9977.pdf; International audience; We present in this paper an original adaptation of Bayesian networks to symbol recognition problem. More precisely, a descriptor combination method, which enables to improve significantly the recognition rate compared to the recognition rates obtained by each descriptor, is presented. In this perspective, we use a simple Bayesian classifier, called naive Bayes. In fact, probabilistic graphical models, more spec...

  8. The CMS Silicon Tracker Alignment

    CERN Document Server

    Castello, R

    2008-01-01

    The alignment of the Strip and Pixel Tracker of the Compact Muon Solenoid experiment, with its large number of independent silicon sensors and its excellent spatial resolution, is a complex and challenging task. Besides high precision mounting, survey measurements and the Laser Alignment System, track-based alignment is needed to reach the envisaged precision.\\\\ Three different algorithms for track-based alignment were successfully tested on a sample of cosmic-ray data collected at the Tracker Integration Facility, where 15\\% of the Tracker was tested. These results, together with those coming from the CMS global run, will provide the basis for the full-scale alignment of the Tracker, which will be carried out with the first \\emph{p-p} collisions.

  9. Bayesian Inference of Tumor Hypoxia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunawan, R.; Tenti, G.; Sivaloganathan, S.

    2009-12-01

    Tumor hypoxia is a state of oxygen deprivation in tumors. It has been associated with aggressive tumor phenotypes and with increased resistance to conventional cancer therapies. In this study, we report on the application of Bayesian sequential analysis in estimating the most probable value of tumor hypoxia quantification based on immunohistochemical assays of a biomarker. The `gold standard' of tumor hypoxia assessment is a direct measurement of pO2 in vivo by the Eppendorf polarographic electrode, which is an invasive technique restricted to accessible sites and living tissues. An attractive alternative is immunohistochemical staining to detect proteins expressed by cells during hypoxia. Carbonic anhydrase IX (CAIX) is an enzyme expressed on the cell membrane during hypoxia to balance the immediate extracellular microenvironment. CAIX is widely regarded as a surrogate marker of chronic hypoxia in various cancers. The study was conducted with two different experimental procedures. The first data set was a group of three patients with invasive cervical carcinomas, from which five biopsies were obtained. Each of the biopsies was fully sectioned and from each section, the proportion of CAIX-positive cells was estimated. Measurements were made by image analysis of multiple deep sections cut through these biopsies, labeled for CAIX using both immunofluorescence and immunohistochemical techniques [1]. The second data set was a group of 24 patients, also with invasive cervical carcinomas, from which two biopsies were obtained. Bayesian parameter estimation was applied to obtain a reliable inference about the proportion of CAIX-positive cells within the carcinomas, based on the available biopsies. From the first data set, two to three biopsies were found to be sufficient to infer the overall CAIX percentage in the simple form: best estimate±uncertainty. The second data-set led to a similar result in 70% of the cases. In the remaining cases Bayes' theorem warned us

  10. Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

    2013-02-01

    A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

  11. Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

    2015-01-01

    A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. PMID:22364575

  12. Alignment-Annotator web server: rendering and annotating sequence alignments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gille, Christoph; Fähling, Michael; Weyand, Birgit; Wieland, Thomas; Gille, Andreas

    2014-07-01

    Alignment-Annotator is a novel web service designed to generate interactive views of annotated nucleotide and amino acid sequence alignments (i) de novo and (ii) embedded in other software. All computations are performed at server side. Interactivity is implemented in HTML5, a language native to web browsers. The alignment is initially displayed using default settings and can be modified with the graphical user interfaces. For example, individual sequences can be reordered or deleted using drag and drop, amino acid color code schemes can be applied and annotations can be added. Annotations can be made manually or imported (BioDAS servers, the UniProt, the Catalytic Site Atlas and the PDB). Some edits take immediate effect while others require server interaction and may take a few seconds to execute. The final alignment document can be downloaded as a zip-archive containing the HTML files. Because of the use of HTML the resulting interactive alignment can be viewed on any platform including Windows, Mac OS X, Linux, Android and iOS in any standard web browser. Importantly, no plugins nor Java are required and therefore Alignment-Anotator represents the first interactive browser-based alignment visualization. http://www.bioinformatics.org/strap/aa/ and http://strap.charite.de/aa/. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  13. EXONEST: The Bayesian Exoplanetary Explorer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin H. Knuth

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The fields of astronomy and astrophysics are currently engaged in an unprecedented era of discovery as recent missions have revealed thousands of exoplanets orbiting other stars. While the Kepler Space Telescope mission has enabled most of these exoplanets to be detected by identifying transiting events, exoplanets often exhibit additional photometric effects that can be used to improve the characterization of exoplanets. The EXONEST Exoplanetary Explorer is a Bayesian exoplanet inference engine based on nested sampling and originally designed to analyze archived Kepler Space Telescope and CoRoT (Convection Rotation et Transits planétaires exoplanet mission data. We discuss the EXONEST software package and describe how it accommodates plug-and-play models of exoplanet-associated photometric effects for the purpose of exoplanet detection, characterization and scientific hypothesis testing. The current suite of models allows for both circular and eccentric orbits in conjunction with photometric effects, such as the primary transit and secondary eclipse, reflected light, thermal emissions, ellipsoidal variations, Doppler beaming and superrotation. We discuss our new efforts to expand the capabilities of the software to include more subtle photometric effects involving reflected and refracted light. We discuss the EXONEST inference engine design and introduce our plans to port the current MATLAB-based EXONEST software package over to the next generation Exoplanetary Explorer, which will be a Python-based open source project with the capability to employ third-party plug-and-play models of exoplanet-related photometric effects.

  14. Maximum entropy and Bayesian methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, C.R.; Erickson, G.J.; Neudorfer, P.O.

    1992-01-01

    Bayesian probability theory and Maximum Entropy methods are at the core of a new view of scientific inference. These 'new' ideas, along with the revolution in computational methods afforded by modern computers allow astronomers, electrical engineers, image processors of any type, NMR chemists and physicists, and anyone at all who has to deal with incomplete and noisy data, to take advantage of methods that, in the past, have been applied only in some areas of theoretical physics. The title workshops have been the focus of a group of researchers from many different fields, and this diversity is evident in this book. There are tutorial and theoretical papers, and applications in a very wide variety of fields. Almost any instance of dealing with incomplete and noisy data can be usefully treated by these methods, and many areas of theoretical research are being enhanced by the thoughtful application of Bayes' theorem. Contributions contained in this volume present a state-of-the-art overview that will be influential and useful for many years to come

  15. Aligning for Innovation - Alignment Strategy to Drive Innovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Hurel; Teltschik, David; Bussey, Horace, Jr.; Moy, James

    2010-01-01

    With the sudden need for innovation that will help the country achieve its long-term space exploration objectives, the question of whether NASA is aligned effectively to drive the innovation that it so desperately needs to take space exploration to the next level should be entertained. Authors such as Robert Kaplan and David North have noted that companies that use a formal system for implementing strategy consistently outperform their peers. They have outlined a six-stage management systems model for implementing strategy, which includes the aligning of the organization towards its objectives. This involves the alignment of the organization from the top down. This presentation will explore the impacts of existing U.S. industrial policy on technological innovation; assess the current NASA organizational alignment and its impacts on driving technological innovation; and finally suggest an alternative approach that may drive the innovation needed to take the world to the next level of space exploration, with NASA truly leading the way.

  16. Alignment control of GEO 600

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grote, H; Heinzel, G; Freise, A; Gossler, S; Willke, B; Lueck, H; Ward, H; Casey, M M; Strain, K A; Robertson, D I; Hough, J; Danzmannx, K

    2004-01-01

    We give an overview of the automatic mirror alignment system of the gravitational wave detector GEO 600. In order to achieve the required sensitivity of the Michelson interferometer, the axes of interfering beams have to be superimposed with a residual angle of the order 10 -8 rad. The beam spots have to be centred on the mirrors to minimize coupling of alignment noise into longitudinal signals. We present the actual control topology and results from the system in operation, which controls all alignment degrees of the power-recycled Michelson. With this system continuous lock stretches of more than 121 h duration were achieved

  17. Control rod housing alignment apparatus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, R.C.; Deaver, G.A.; Punches, J.R.; Singleton, G.E.; Erbes, J.G.; Offer, H.P.

    1991-01-01

    This paper discusses an alignment device for precisely locating the position of the top of a control rod drive housing from an overlying and corresponding hole and alignment pin in a core plate within a boiling water nuclear reactor. It includes a shaft, the shaft having a length sufficient to extend from the vicinity of the top of the control rod drive housing up to and through the hole in the core plate; means for registering the top of the shaft to the hole in the core plate, the registering means including means for registering with an alignment pin in the core plate adjacent the hole

  18. Prediction of molecular alignment of nucleic acids in aligned media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Bin; Petersen, Michael; Girard, Frederic; Tessari, Marco; Wijmenga, Sybren S.

    2006-01-01

    We demonstrate - using the data base of all deposited DNA and RNA structures aligned in Pf1-medium and RDC refined - that for nucleic acids in a Pf1-medium the electrostatic alignment tensor can be predicted reliably and accurately via a simple and fast calculation based on the gyration tensor spanned out by the phosphodiester atoms. The rhombicity is well predicted over its full range from 0 to 0.66, while the alignment tensor orientation is predicted correctly for rhombicities up to ca. 0.4, for larger rhombicities it appears to deviate somewhat more than expected based on structural noise and measurement error. This simple analytical approach is based on the Debye-Huckel approximation for the electrostatic interaction potential, valid at distances sufficiently far away from a poly-ionic charged surface, a condition naturally enforced when the charge of alignment medium and solute are of equal sign, as for nucleic acids in a Pf1-phage medium. For the usual salt strengths and nucleic acid sizes, the Debye-Huckel screening length is smaller than the nucleic acid size, but large enough for the collective of Debye-Huckel spheres to encompass the whole molecule. The molecular alignment is then purely electrostatic, but it's functional form is under these conditions similar to that for steric alignment. The proposed analytical expression allows for very fast calculation of the alignment tensor and hence RDCs from the conformation of the nucleic acid molecule. This information provides opportunities for improved structure determination of nucleic acids, including better assessment of dynamics in (multi-domain) nucleic acids and the possibility to incorporate alignment tensor prediction from shape directly into the structure calculation process. The procedures are incorporated into MATLAB scripts, which are available on request

  19. Bayesian tomographic reconstruction of microsystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salem, Sofia Fekih; Vabre, Alexandre; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali

    2007-01-01

    The microtomography by X ray transmission plays an increasingly dominating role in the study and the understanding of microsystems. Within this framework, an experimental setup of high resolution X ray microtomography was developed at CEA-List to quantify the physical parameters related to the fluids flow in microsystems. Several difficulties rise from the nature of experimental data collected on this setup: enhanced error measurements due to various physical phenomena occurring during the image formation (diffusion, beam hardening), and specificities of the setup (limited angle, partial view of the object, weak contrast).To reconstruct the object we must solve an inverse problem. This inverse problem is known to be ill-posed. It therefore needs to be regularized by introducing prior information. The main prior information we account for is that the object is composed of a finite known number of different materials distributed in compact regions. This a priori information is introduced via a Gauss-Markov field for the contrast distributions with a hidden Potts-Markov field for the class materials in the Bayesian estimation framework. The computations are done by using an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique.In this paper, we present first the basic steps of the proposed algorithms. Then we focus on one of the main steps in any iterative reconstruction method which is the computation of forward and adjoint operators (projection and backprojection). A fast implementation of these two operators is crucial for the real application of the method. We give some details on the fast computation of these steps and show some preliminary results of simulations

  20. The Rigors of Aligning Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    17 G. STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT IN PUBLIC ORGANIZATIONS ..........18 H. LITERATURE...67 A. SWOT ANALYSIS ........................................................................................67 1. Strengths...alignment. Finally, a Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats ( SWOT ) analysis is conducted to identify potential areas for improvement within

  1. Fixture for aligning motor assembly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shervington, Roger M.; Vaghani, Vallabh V.; Vanek, Laurence D.; Christensen, Scott A.

    2009-12-08

    An alignment fixture includes a rotor fixture, a stator fixture and a sensor system which measures a rotational displacement therebetween. The fixture precisely measures rotation of a generator stator assembly away from a NULL position referenced by a unique reference spline on the rotor shaft. By providing an adjustable location of the stator assembly within the housing, the magnetic axes within each generator shall be aligned to a predetermined and controlled tolerance between the generator interface mounting pin and the reference spline on the rotor shaft. Once magnetically aligned, each generator is essentially a line replaceable unit which may be readily mounted to any input of a multi-generator gearbox assembly with the assurance that the magnetic alignment will be within a predetermined tolerance.

  2. Antares automatic beam alignment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appert, Q.; Swann, T.; Sweatt, W.; Saxman, A.

    1980-01-01

    Antares is a 24-beam-line CO 2 laser system for controlled fusion research, under construction at Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory (LASL). Rapid automatic alignment of this system is required prior to each experiment shot. The alignment requirements, operational constraints, and a developed prototype system are discussed. A visible-wavelength alignment technique is employed that uses a telescope/TV system to view point light sources appropriately located down the beamline. Auto-alignment is accomplished by means of a video centroid tracker, which determines the off-axis error of the point sources. The error is nulled by computer-driven, movable mirrors in a closed-loop system. The light sources are fiber-optic terminations located at key points in the optics path, primarily at the center of large copper mirrors, and remotely illuminated to reduce heating effects

  3. Aligning with new Digital Strategy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yeow, Adrian; Soh, Christina; Hansen, Rina

    2018-01-01

    Prior IS research has not fully addressed the aligning process in the highly dynamic context of digital strategy. To address this gap, we conduct a longitudinal analysis of a B2B company's journey to enact its B2C digital strategy, using the dynamic capabilities approach. We found...... that as an organization shifts towards a digital strategy, misalignments between the emergent strategy and resources give rise to tension. Our study resulted in the development of an aligning process model that is comprised of three phases (exploratory, building, and extending) and generalizable organizational aligning...... actions that form the organization's sensing, seizing, and transforming capacities. These aligning actions iteratively reconfigured organizational resources and refined strategy in order to respond to both changes in the environment and internal tensions. We also recognized that there are challenges...

  4. Dimensionality reduction in Bayesian estimation algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. W. Petty

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available An idealized synthetic database loosely resembling 3-channel passive microwave observations of precipitation against a variable background is employed to examine the performance of a conventional Bayesian retrieval algorithm. For this dataset, algorithm performance is found to be poor owing to an irreconcilable conflict between the need to find matches in the dependent database versus the need to exclude inappropriate matches. It is argued that the likelihood of such conflicts increases sharply with the dimensionality of the observation space of real satellite sensors, which may utilize 9 to 13 channels to retrieve precipitation, for example. An objective method is described for distilling the relevant information content from N real channels into a much smaller number (M of pseudochannels while also regularizing the background (geophysical plus instrument noise component. The pseudochannels are linear combinations of the original N channels obtained via a two-stage principal component analysis of the dependent dataset. Bayesian retrievals based on a single pseudochannel applied to the independent dataset yield striking improvements in overall performance. The differences between the conventional Bayesian retrieval and reduced-dimensional Bayesian retrieval suggest that a major potential problem with conventional multichannel retrievals – whether Bayesian or not – lies in the common but often inappropriate assumption of diagonal error covariance. The dimensional reduction technique described herein avoids this problem by, in effect, recasting the retrieval problem in a coordinate system in which the desired covariance is lower-dimensional, diagonal, and unit magnitude.

  5. Dimensionality reduction in Bayesian estimation algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petty, G. W.

    2013-09-01

    An idealized synthetic database loosely resembling 3-channel passive microwave observations of precipitation against a variable background is employed to examine the performance of a conventional Bayesian retrieval algorithm. For this dataset, algorithm performance is found to be poor owing to an irreconcilable conflict between the need to find matches in the dependent database versus the need to exclude inappropriate matches. It is argued that the likelihood of such conflicts increases sharply with the dimensionality of the observation space of real satellite sensors, which may utilize 9 to 13 channels to retrieve precipitation, for example. An objective method is described for distilling the relevant information content from N real channels into a much smaller number (M) of pseudochannels while also regularizing the background (geophysical plus instrument) noise component. The pseudochannels are linear combinations of the original N channels obtained via a two-stage principal component analysis of the dependent dataset. Bayesian retrievals based on a single pseudochannel applied to the independent dataset yield striking improvements in overall performance. The differences between the conventional Bayesian retrieval and reduced-dimensional Bayesian retrieval suggest that a major potential problem with conventional multichannel retrievals - whether Bayesian or not - lies in the common but often inappropriate assumption of diagonal error covariance. The dimensional reduction technique described herein avoids this problem by, in effect, recasting the retrieval problem in a coordinate system in which the desired covariance is lower-dimensional, diagonal, and unit magnitude.

  6. Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya

    2018-03-01

    Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.

  7. How few? Bayesian statistics in injury biomechanics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutcliffe, Hattie C; Schmidt, Allison L; Lucas, Joseph E; Bass, Cameron R

    2012-10-01

    In injury biomechanics, there are currently no general a priori estimates of how few specimens are necessary to obtain sufficiently accurate injury risk curves for a given underlying distribution. Further, several methods are available for constructing these curves, and recent methods include Bayesian survival analysis. This study used statistical simulations to evaluate the fidelity of different injury risk methods using limited sample sizes across four different underlying distributions. Five risk curve techniques were evaluated, including Bayesian techniques. For the Bayesian analyses, various prior distributions were assessed, each incorporating more accurate information. Simulated subject injury and biomechanical input values were randomly sampled from each underlying distribution, and injury status was determined by comparing these values. Injury risk curves were developed for this data using each technique for various small sample sizes; for each, analyses on 2000 simulated data sets were performed. Resulting median predicted risk values and confidence intervals were compared with the underlying distributions. Across conditions, the standard and Bayesian survival analyses better represented the underlying distributions included in this study, especially for extreme (1, 10, and 90%) risk. This study demonstrates that the value of the Bayesian analysis is the use of informed priors. As the mean of the prior approaches the actual value, the sample size necessary for good reproduction of the underlying distribution with small confidence intervals can be as small as 2. This study provides estimates of confidence intervals and number of samples to allow the selection of the most appropriate sample sizes given known information.

  8. A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2015-03-01

    In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).

  9. Computationally efficient Bayesian inference for inverse problems.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marzouk, Youssef M.; Najm, Habib N.; Rahn, Larry A.

    2007-10-01

    Bayesian statistics provides a foundation for inference from noisy and incomplete data, a natural mechanism for regularization in the form of prior information, and a quantitative assessment of uncertainty in the inferred results. Inverse problems - representing indirect estimation of model parameters, inputs, or structural components - can be fruitfully cast in this framework. Complex and computationally intensive forward models arising in physical applications, however, can render a Bayesian approach prohibitive. This difficulty is compounded by high-dimensional model spaces, as when the unknown is a spatiotemporal field. We present new algorithmic developments for Bayesian inference in this context, showing strong connections with the forward propagation of uncertainty. In particular, we introduce a stochastic spectral formulation that dramatically accelerates the Bayesian solution of inverse problems via rapid evaluation of a surrogate posterior. We also explore dimensionality reduction for the inference of spatiotemporal fields, using truncated spectral representations of Gaussian process priors. These new approaches are demonstrated on scalar transport problems arising in contaminant source inversion and in the inference of inhomogeneous material or transport properties. We also present a Bayesian framework for parameter estimation in stochastic models, where intrinsic stochasticity may be intermingled with observational noise. Evaluation of a likelihood function may not be analytically tractable in these cases, and thus several alternative Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) schemes, operating on the product space of the observations and the parameters, are introduced.

  10. BinAligner: a heuristic method to align biological networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jialiang; Li, Jun; Grünewald, Stefan; Wan, Xiu-Feng

    2013-01-01

    The advances in high throughput omics technologies have made it possible to characterize molecular interactions within and across various species. Alignments and comparison of molecular networks across species will help detect orthologs and conserved functional modules and provide insights on the evolutionary relationships of the compared species. However, such analyses are not trivial due to the complexity of network and high computational cost. Here we develop a mixture of global and local algorithm, BinAligner, for network alignments. Based on the hypotheses that the similarity between two vertices across networks would be context dependent and that the information from the edges and the structures of subnetworks can be more informative than vertices alone, two scoring schema, 1-neighborhood subnetwork and graphlet, were introduced to derive the scoring matrices between networks, besides the commonly used scoring scheme from vertices. Then the alignment problem is formulated as an assignment problem, which is solved by the combinatorial optimization algorithm, such as the Hungarian method. The proposed algorithm was applied and validated in aligning the protein-protein interaction network of Kaposi's sarcoma associated herpesvirus (KSHV) and that of varicella zoster virus (VZV). Interestingly, we identified several putative functional orthologous proteins with similar functions but very low sequence similarity between the two viruses. For example, KSHV open reading frame 56 (ORF56) and VZV ORF55 are helicase-primase subunits with sequence identity 14.6%, and KSHV ORF75 and VZV ORF44 are tegument proteins with sequence identity 15.3%. These functional pairs can not be identified if one restricts the alignment into orthologous protein pairs. In addition, BinAligner identified a conserved pathway between two viruses, which consists of 7 orthologous protein pairs and these proteins are connected by conserved links. This pathway might be crucial for virus packing and

  11. Bayesian analysis of MEG visual evoked responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmidt, D.M.; George, J.S.; Wood, C.C.

    1999-04-01

    The authors developed a method for analyzing neural electromagnetic data that allows probabilistic inferences to be drawn about regions of activation. The method involves the generation of a large number of possible solutions which both fir the data and prior expectations about the nature of probable solutions made explicit by a Bayesian formalism. In addition, they have introduced a model for the current distributions that produce MEG and (EEG) data that allows extended regions of activity, and can easily incorporate prior information such as anatomical constraints from MRI. To evaluate the feasibility and utility of the Bayesian approach with actual data, they analyzed MEG data from a visual evoked response experiment. They compared Bayesian analyses of MEG responses to visual stimuli in the left and right visual fields, in order to examine the sensitivity of the method to detect known features of human visual cortex organization. They also examined the changing pattern of cortical activation as a function of time.

  12. Empirical Bayesian inference and model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poern, K.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a hierarchical or multistage empirical Bayesian approach for the estimation of uncertainty concerning the intensity of a homogeneous Poisson process. A class of contaminated gamma distributions is considered to describe the uncertainty concerning the intensity. These distributions in turn are defined through a set of secondary parameters, the knowledge of which is also described and updated via Bayes formula. This two-stage Bayesian approach is an example where the modeling uncertainty is treated in a comprehensive way. Each contaminated gamma distributions, represented by a point in the 3D space of secondary parameters, can be considered as a specific model of the uncertainty about the Poisson intensity. Then, by the empirical Bayesian method each individual model is assigned a posterior probability

  13. Bayesian modeling of unknown diseases for biosurveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yanna; Cooper, Gregory F

    2009-11-14

    This paper investigates Bayesian modeling of unknown causes of events in the context of disease-outbreak detection. We introduce a Bayesian approach that models and detects both (1) known diseases (e.g., influenza and anthrax) by using informative prior probabilities and (2) unknown diseases (e.g., a new, highly contagious respiratory virus that has never been seen before) by using relatively non-informative prior probabilities. We report the results of simulation experiments which support that this modeling method can improve the detection of new disease outbreaks in a population. A key contribution of this paper is that it introduces a Bayesian approach for jointly modeling both known and unknown causes of events. Such modeling has broad applicability in medical informatics, where the space of known causes of outcomes of interest is seldom complete.

  14. Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lawson, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    .... Exploring these new developments, Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology, Second Edition provides an up-to-date, cohesive account of the full range of Bayesian disease mapping methods and applications...

  15. Bayesian Inference in Polling Technique: 1992 Presidential Polls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satake, Eiki

    1994-01-01

    Explores the potential utility of Bayesian statistical methods in determining the predictability of multiple polls. Compares Bayesian techniques to the classical statistical method employed by pollsters. Considers these questions in the context of the 1992 presidential elections. (HB)

  16. The Bayesian Approach to Association

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, N. S.

    2017-12-01

    The Bayesian approach to Association focuses mainly on quantifying the physics of the domain. In the case of seismic association for instance let X be the set of all significant events (above some threshold) and their attributes, such as location, time, and magnitude, Y1 be the set of detections that are caused by significant events and their attributes such as seismic phase, arrival time, amplitude etc., Y2 be the set of detections that are not caused by significant events, and finally Y be the set of observed detections We would now define the joint distribution P(X, Y1, Y2, Y) = P(X) P(Y1 | X) P(Y2) I(Y = Y1 + Y2) ; where the last term simply states that Y1 and Y2 are a partitioning of Y. Given the above joint distribution the inference problem is simply to find the X, Y1, and Y2 that maximizes posterior probability P(X, Y1, Y2| Y) which reduces to maximizing P(X) P(Y1 | X) P(Y2) I(Y = Y1 + Y2). In this expression P(X) captures our prior belief about event locations. P(Y1 | X) captures notions of travel time, residual error distributions as well as detection and mis-detection probabilities. While P(Y2) captures the false detection rate of our seismic network. The elegance of this approach is that all of the assumptions are stated clearly in the model for P(X), P(Y1|X) and P(Y2). The implementation of the inference is merely a by-product of this model. In contrast some of the other methods such as GA hide a number of assumptions in the implementation details of the inference - such as the so called "driver cells." The other important aspect of this approach is that all seismic knowledge including knowledge from other domains such as infrasound and hydroacoustic can be included in the same model. So, we don't need to separately account for misdetections or merge seismic and infrasound events as a separate step. Finally, it should be noted that the objective of automatic association is to simplify the job of humans who are publishing seismic bulletins based on this

  17. Bayesian estimation and tracking a practical guide

    CERN Document Server

    Haug, Anton J

    2012-01-01

    A practical approach to estimating and tracking dynamic systems in real-worl applications Much of the literature on performing estimation for non-Gaussian systems is short on practical methodology, while Gaussian methods often lack a cohesive derivation. Bayesian Estimation and Tracking addresses the gap in the field on both accounts, providing readers with a comprehensive overview of methods for estimating both linear and nonlinear dynamic systems driven by Gaussian and non-Gaussian noices. Featuring a unified approach to Bayesian estimation and tracking, the book emphasizes the derivation

  18. Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2013-01-01

    an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...

  19. Motion Learning Based on Bayesian Program Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Meng-Zhen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The concept of virtual human has been highly anticipated since the 1980s. By using computer technology, Human motion simulation could generate authentic visual effect, which could cheat human eyes visually. Bayesian Program Learning train one or few motion data, generate new motion data by decomposing and combining. And the generated motion will be more realistic and natural than the traditional one.In this paper, Motion learning based on Bayesian program learning allows us to quickly generate new motion data, reduce workload, improve work efficiency, reduce the cost of motion capture, and improve the reusability of data.

  20. Bayesian inference and the parametric bootstrap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efron, Bradley

    2013-01-01

    The parametric bootstrap can be used for the efficient computation of Bayes posterior distributions. Importance sampling formulas take on an easy form relating to the deviance in exponential families, and are particularly simple starting from Jeffreys invariant prior. Because of the i.i.d. nature of bootstrap sampling, familiar formulas describe the computational accuracy of the Bayes estimates. Besides computational methods, the theory provides a connection between Bayesian and frequentist analysis. Efficient algorithms for the frequentist accuracy of Bayesian inferences are developed and demonstrated in a model selection example. PMID:23843930

  1. Length Scales in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Gh.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Two conceptual developments in the Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature approach to the numerical solution of one-dimensional Riemann integrals [Gh. Adam, S. Adam, Springer LNCS 7125, 1–16 (2012] are reported. First, it is shown that the numerical quadrature which avoids the overcomputing and minimizes the hidden floating point loss of precision asks for the consideration of three classes of integration domain lengths endowed with specific quadrature sums: microscopic (trapezoidal rule, mesoscopic (Simpson rule, and macroscopic (quadrature sums of high algebraic degrees of precision. Second, sensitive diagnostic tools for the Bayesian inference on macroscopic ranges, coming from the use of Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature, are derived.

  2. Length Scales in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Gh.; Adam, S.

    2016-02-01

    Two conceptual developments in the Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature approach to the numerical solution of one-dimensional Riemann integrals [Gh. Adam, S. Adam, Springer LNCS 7125, 1-16 (2012)] are reported. First, it is shown that the numerical quadrature which avoids the overcomputing and minimizes the hidden floating point loss of precision asks for the consideration of three classes of integration domain lengths endowed with specific quadrature sums: microscopic (trapezoidal rule), mesoscopic (Simpson rule), and macroscopic (quadrature sums of high algebraic degrees of precision). Second, sensitive diagnostic tools for the Bayesian inference on macroscopic ranges, coming from the use of Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature, are derived.

  3. Nanoscratch technique for aligning multiwalled carbon nanotubes ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    to align a MWCNT, as well as the energy required to align a gram of nanotubes, has been estimated. The method demonstrated represents an economical approach for large-scale synthesis of aligned MWCNTs at low costs. Keywords. Carbon nanotube; arc discharge; characterization; alignment; nanoscratch. 1.

  4. Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom

    2013-02-01

    Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.

  5. A Fast Iterative Bayesian Inference Algorithm for Sparse Channel Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Fleury, Bernard Henri

    2013-01-01

    representation of the Bessel K probability density function; a highly efficient, fast iterative Bayesian inference method is then applied to the proposed model. The resulting estimator outperforms other state-of-the-art Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimators, either by yielding lower mean squared estimation error...

  6. A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis : Applications to Developmental Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van de Schoot, Rens|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304833207; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A G|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/081831218

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

  7. A gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis : Applications to developmental research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Schoot, R.; Kaplan, D.; Denissen, J.J.A.; Asendorpf, J.B.; Neyer, F.J.; van Aken, M.A.G.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

  8. Strategic Alignment and New Product Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acur, Nuran; Kandemir, Destan; Boer, Harry

    2012-01-01

    of NPD performance indicators. Strategic planning and innovativeness appear to affect technological, market, and NPD-marketing alignment positively. Environmental munificence is negatively associated with NPD-marketing alignment, but has no effect on the two other forms of alignment. Technological change......Strategic alignment is widely accepted as a prerequisite for a firm’s success, but insight into the role of alignment in, and its impact on, the new product evelopment (NPD) process and its performance is less well developed. Most publications on this topic either focus on one form of alignment...... has a positive effect on technological alignment, a negative effect on NPD-marketing alignment, but no effect on market alignment. These findings suggest that internal capabilities are more likely to be associated with the development of strategic alignment than environmental factors are. Furthermore...

  9. DIDA: Distributed Indexing Dispatched Alignment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Mohamadi

    Full Text Available One essential application in bioinformatics that is affected by the high-throughput sequencing data deluge is the sequence alignment problem, where nucleotide or amino acid sequences are queried against targets to find regions of close similarity. When queries are too many and/or targets are too large, the alignment process becomes computationally challenging. This is usually addressed by preprocessing techniques, where the queries and/or targets are indexed for easy access while searching for matches. When the target is static, such as in an established reference genome, the cost of indexing is amortized by reusing the generated index. However, when the targets are non-static, such as contigs in the intermediate steps of a de novo assembly process, a new index must be computed for each run. To address such scalability problems, we present DIDA, a novel framework that distributes the indexing and alignment tasks into smaller subtasks over a cluster of compute nodes. It provides a workflow beyond the common practice of embarrassingly parallel implementations. DIDA is a cost-effective, scalable and modular framework for the sequence alignment problem in terms of memory usage and runtime. It can be employed in large-scale alignments to draft genomes and intermediate stages of de novo assembly runs. The DIDA source code, sample files and user manual are available through http://www.bcgsc.ca/platform/bioinfo/software/dida. The software is released under the British Columbia Cancer Agency License (BCCA, and is free for academic use.

  10. A Bayesian perspective on some replacement strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazzuchi, Thomas A.; Soyer, Refik

    1996-01-01

    In this paper we present a Bayesian decision theoretic approach for determining optimal replacement strategies. This approach enables us to formally incorporate, express, and update our uncertainty when determining optimal replacement strategies. We develop relevant expressions for both the block replacement protocol with minimal repair and the age replacement protocol and illustrate the use of our approach with real data

  11. Posterior Predictive Model Checking in Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Aaron

    2014-01-01

    This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…

  12. Sequential Bayesian technique: An alternative approach for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper proposes a sequential Bayesian approach similar to Kalman filter for estimating reliability growth or decay of software. The main advantage of proposed method is that it shows the variation of the parameter over a time, as new failure data become available. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated with ...

  13. Sequential Bayesian technique: An alternative approach for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    MS received 8 October 2007; revised 15 July 2008. Abstract. This paper proposes a sequential Bayesian approach similar to Kalman filter for estimating reliability growth or decay of software. The main advantage of proposed method is that it shows the variation of the parameter over a time, as new failure data become ...

  14. Theory change and Bayesian statistical inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romeijn, Jan-Willem

    2005-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem that Bayesian statistical inference cannot accommodate theory change, and proposes a framework for dealing with such changes. It first presents a scheme for generating predictions from observations by means of hypotheses. An example shows how the hypotheses represent

  15. Bayesian mixture models for partially verified data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostoulas, Polychronis; Browne, William J.; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian mixture models can be used to discriminate between the distributions of continuous test responses for different infection stages. These models are particularly useful in case of chronic infections with a long latent period, like Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection...

  16. Non-Linear Approximation of Bayesian Update

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2016-06-23

    We develop a non-linear approximation of expensive Bayesian formula. This non-linear approximation is applied directly to Polynomial Chaos Coefficients. In this way, we avoid Monte Carlo sampling and sampling error. We can show that the famous Kalman Update formula is a particular case of this update.

  17. Bayesian approach and application to operation safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Procaccia, H.; Suhner, M.Ch.

    2003-01-01

    The management of industrial risks requires the development of statistical and probabilistic analyses which use all the available convenient information in order to compensate the insufficient experience feedback in a domain where accidents and incidents remain too scarce to perform a classical statistical frequency analysis. The Bayesian decision approach is well adapted to this problem because it integrates both the expertise and the experience feedback. The domain of knowledge is widen, the forecasting study becomes possible and the decisions-remedial actions are strengthen thanks to risk-cost-benefit optimization analyzes. This book presents the bases of the Bayesian approach and its concrete applications in various industrial domains. After a mathematical presentation of the industrial operation safety concepts and of the Bayesian approach principles, this book treats of some of the problems that can be solved thanks to this approach: softwares reliability, controls linked with the equipments warranty, dynamical updating of databases, expertise modeling and weighting, Bayesian optimization in the domains of maintenance, quality control, tests and design of new equipments. A synthesis of the mathematical formulae used in this approach is given in conclusion. (J.S.)

  18. Comparison between Fisherian and Bayesian approach to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... of its simplicity and optimality properties is normally used for two group cases. However, Bayesian approach is found to be better than Fisher's approach because of its low misclassification error rate. Keywords: variance-covariance matrices, centroids, prior probability, mahalanobis distance, probability of misclassification ...

  19. Neural network classification - A Bayesian interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Eric A.

    1990-01-01

    The relationship between minimizing a mean squared error and finding the optimal Bayesian classifier is reviewed. This provides a theoretical interpretation for the process by which neural networks are used in classification. A number of confidence measures are proposed to evaluate the performance of the neural network classifier within a statistical framework.

  20. Bayesian Estimation of Item Response Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutakawa, Robert K.; Lin, Hsin Ying

    1986-01-01

    Item response curves for a set of binary responses are studied from a Bayesian viewpoint of estimating the item parameters. For the two-parameter logistic model with normally distributed ability, restricted bivariate beta priors are used to illustrate the computation of the posterior mode via the EM algorithm. (Author/LMO)

  1. Speech Segmentation Using Bayesian Autoregressive Changepoint Detector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Sovka

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available This submission is devoted to the study of the Bayesian autoregressive changepoint detector (BCD and its use for speech segmentation. Results of the detector application to autoregressive signals as well as to real speech are given. BCD basic properties are described and discussed. The novel two-step algorithm consisting of cepstral analysis and BCD for automatic speech segmentation is suggested.

  2. Bayesian networks: a combined tuning heuristic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolt, J.H.

    2016-01-01

    One of the issues in tuning an output probability of a Bayesian network by changing multiple parameters is the relative amount of the individual parameter changes. In an existing heuristic parameters are tied such that their changes induce locally a maximal change of the tuned probability. This

  3. Exploiting structure in cooperative Bayesian games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oliehoek, F.A.; Whiteson, S.; Spaan, M.T.J.; de Freitas, N.; Murphy, K.

    2012-01-01

    Cooperative Bayesian games (BGs) can model decision-making problems for teams of agents under imperfect information, but require space and computation time that is exponential in the number of agents. While agent independence has been used to mitigate these problems in perfect information settings,

  4. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255 (United States); Coc, A. [Centre de Sciences Nucléaires et de Sciences de la Matière (CSNSM), CNRS/IN2P3, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris–Saclay, Bâtiment 104, F-91405 Orsay Campus (France); Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S., E-mail: iliadis@unc.edu [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1504 (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.

  5. An Approximate Bayesian Fundamental Frequency Estimator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Kjær; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Jensen, Søren Holdt

    2012-01-01

    Joint fundamental frequency and model order estimation is an important problem in several applications such as speech and music processing. In this paper, we develop an approximate estimation algorithm of these quantities using Bayesian inference. The inference about the fundamental frequency...

  6. Erratum Bayesian and Dempster–Shafer fusion

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    (1) The paper “Bayesian and Dempster–Shafer fusion” contains a mistake in Appendix A, although this has not affected anything in the body of the paper. On page 172, the authors state correctly that the matrix F is, in general, not square, but then in (A.22) they take its determinant. This confusion resulted because the ...

  7. On local optima in learning bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Jens; Kocka, Tomas; Pena, Jose

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes and evaluates the k-greedy equivalence search algorithm (KES) for learning Bayesian networks (BNs) from complete data. The main characteristic of KES is that it allows a trade-off between greediness and randomness, thus exploring different good local optima. When greediness...

  8. Comprehension and computation in Bayesian problem solving

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric D. Johnson

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Humans have long been characterized as poor probabilistic reasoners when presented with explicit numerical information. Bayesian word problems provide a well-known example of this, where even highly educated and cognitively skilled individuals fail to adhere to mathematical norms. It is widely agreed that natural frequencies can facilitate Bayesian reasoning relative to normalized formats (e.g. probabilities, percentages, both by clarifying logical set-subset relations and by simplifying numerical calculations. Nevertheless, between-study performance on transparent Bayesian problems varies widely, and generally remains rather unimpressive. We suggest there has been an over-focus on this representational facilitator (i.e. transparent problem structures at the expense of the specific logical and numerical processing requirements and the corresponding individual abilities and skills necessary for providing Bayesian-like output given specific verbal and numerical input. We further suggest that understanding this task-individual pair could benefit from considerations from the literature on mathematical cognition, which emphasizes text comprehension and problem solving, along with contributions of online executive working memory, metacognitive regulation, and relevant stored knowledge and skills. We conclude by offering avenues for future research aimed at identifying the stages in problem solving at which correct versus incorrect reasoners depart, and how individual difference might influence this time point.

  9. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian networks for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... how these two computer aided methods may be combined to better facilitate modelling procedures. A simple example is presented, concerning a recent application in the field of environmental decision support. Keywords: Morphological analysis, Bayesian networks, strategic decision support. ORiON Vol. 23 (2) 2007: pp.

  10. Approximate Bayesian evaluations of measurement uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Possolo, Antonio; Bodnar, Olha

    2018-04-01

    The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) includes formulas that produce an estimate of a scalar output quantity that is a function of several input quantities, and an approximate evaluation of the associated standard uncertainty. This contribution presents approximate, Bayesian counterparts of those formulas for the case where the output quantity is a parameter of the joint probability distribution of the input quantities, also taking into account any information about the value of the output quantity available prior to measurement expressed in the form of a probability distribution on the set of possible values for the measurand. The approximate Bayesian estimates and uncertainty evaluations that we present have a long history and illustrious pedigree, and provide sufficiently accurate approximations in many applications, yet are very easy to implement in practice. Differently from exact Bayesian estimates, which involve either (analytical or numerical) integrations, or Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, the approximations that we describe involve only numerical optimization and simple algebra. Therefore, they make Bayesian methods widely accessible to metrologists. We illustrate the application of the proposed techniques in several instances of measurement: isotopic ratio of silver in a commercial silver nitrate; odds of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients; height of a manometer column; mass fraction of chromium in a reference material; and potential-difference in a Zener voltage standard.

  11. Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Coefficient Alpha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brannick, Michael T.; Zhang, Nanhua

    2013-01-01

    The current paper describes and illustrates a Bayesian approach to the meta-analysis of coefficient alpha. Alpha is the most commonly used estimate of the reliability or consistency (freedom from measurement error) for educational and psychological measures. The conventional approach to meta-analysis uses inverse variance weights to combine…

  12. Theory Change and Bayesian Statistical Inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romeyn, Jan-Willem

    2008-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem that Bayesian statistical inference cannot accommodate theory change, and proposes a framework for dealing with such changes. It first presents a scheme for generating predictions from observations by means of hypotheses. An example shows how the hypotheses represent

  13. Heuristics as Bayesian inference under extreme priors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parpart, Paula; Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

    2018-05-01

    Simple heuristics are often regarded as tractable decision strategies because they ignore a great deal of information in the input data. One puzzle is why heuristics can outperform full-information models, such as linear regression, which make full use of the available information. These "less-is-more" effects, in which a relatively simpler model outperforms a more complex model, are prevalent throughout cognitive science, and are frequently argued to demonstrate an inherent advantage of simplifying computation or ignoring information. In contrast, we show at the computational level (where algorithmic restrictions are set aside) that it is never optimal to discard information. Through a formal Bayesian analysis, we prove that popular heuristics, such as tallying and take-the-best, are formally equivalent to Bayesian inference under the limit of infinitely strong priors. Varying the strength of the prior yields a continuum of Bayesian models with the heuristics at one end and ordinary regression at the other. Critically, intermediate models perform better across all our simulations, suggesting that down-weighting information with the appropriate prior is preferable to entirely ignoring it. Rather than because of their simplicity, our analyses suggest heuristics perform well because they implement strong priors that approximate the actual structure of the environment. We end by considering how new heuristics could be derived by infinitely strengthening the priors of other Bayesian models. These formal results have implications for work in psychology, machine learning and economics. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Default Bayesian Estimation of the Fundamental Frequency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Kjær; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Jensen, Søren Holdt

    2013-01-01

    Joint fundamental frequency and model order esti- mation is an important problem in several applications. In this paper, a default estimation algorithm based on a minimum of prior information is presented. The algorithm is developed in a Bayesian framework, and it can be applied to both real...

  15. Error probabilities in default Bayesian hypothesis testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gu, Xin; Hoijtink, Herbert; Mulder, J,

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the classical type I and type II error probabilities of default Bayes factors for a Bayesian t test. Default Bayes factors quantify the relative evidence between the null hypothesis and the unrestricted alternative hypothesis without needing to specify prior distributions for

  16. Forecasting nuclear power supply with Bayesian autoregression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.; Solow, J.L.

    1994-01-01

    We explore the possibility of forecasting the quarterly US generation of electricity from nuclear power using a Bayesian autoregression model. In terms of forecasting accuracy, this approach compares favorably with both the Department of Energy's current forecasting methodology and their more recent efforts using ARIMA models, and it is extremely easy and inexpensive to implement. (author)

  17. Bayesian Benefits for the Pragmatic Researcher

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagenmakers, E.-J.; Morey, R.D.; Lee, M.D.

    2016-01-01

    The practical advantages of Bayesian inference are demonstrated here through two concrete examples. In the first example, we wish to learn about a criminal’s IQ: a problem of parameter estimation. In the second example, we wish to quantify and track support in favor of the null hypothesis that Adam

  18. Bayesian evaluation of inequality constrained hypotheses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gu, X.; Mulder, J.; Deković, M.; Hoijtink, H.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian evaluation of inequality constrained hypotheses enables researchers to investigate their expectations with respect to the structure among model parameters. This article proposes an approximate Bayes procedure that can be used for the selection of the best of a set of inequality constrained

  19. Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrante, Luigi; Skrami, Edlira; Gesuita, Rosaria; Cameriere, Roberto

    2015-05-10

    Forensic medicine is increasingly called upon to assess the age of individuals. Forensic age estimation is mostly required in relation to illegal immigration and identification of bodies or skeletal remains. A variety of age estimation methods are based on dental samples and use of regression models, where the age of an individual is predicted by morphological tooth changes that take place over time. From the medico-legal point of view, regression models, with age as the dependent random variable entail that age tends to be overestimated in the young and underestimated in the old. To overcome this bias, we describe a new full Bayesian calibration method (asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration) for forensic age estimation that uses asymmetric Laplace distribution as the probability model. The method was compared with three existing approaches (two Bayesian and a classical method) using simulated data. Although its accuracy was comparable with that of the other methods, the asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration appears to be significantly more reliable and robust in case of misspecification of the probability model. The proposed method was also applied to a real dataset of values of the pulp chamber of the right lower premolar measured on x-ray scans of individuals of known age. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Low Complexity Bayesian Single Channel Source Separation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beierholm, Thomas; Pedersen, Brian Dam; Winther, Ole

    2004-01-01

    We propose a simple Bayesian model for performing single channel speech separation using factorized source priors in a sliding window linearly transformed domain. Using a one dimensional mixture of Gaussians to model each band source leads to fast tractable inference for the source signals. Simul...

  1. Evidence Estimation for Bayesian Partially Observed MRFs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.; Welling, M.

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian estimation in Markov random fields is very hard due to the intractability of the partition function. The introduction of hidden units makes the situation even worse due to the presence of potentially very many modes in the posterior distribution. For the first time we propose a

  2. Quantifying Registration Uncertainty With Sparse Bayesian Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Folgoc, Loic; Delingette, Herve; Criminisi, Antonio; Ayache, Nicholas

    2017-02-01

    We investigate uncertainty quantification under a sparse Bayesian model of medical image registration. Bayesian modelling has proven powerful to automate the tuning of registration hyperparameters, such as the trade-off between the data and regularization functionals. Sparsity-inducing priors have recently been used to render the parametrization itself adaptive and data-driven. The sparse prior on transformation parameters effectively favors the use of coarse basis functions to capture the global trends in the visible motion while finer, highly localized bases are introduced only in the presence of coherent image information and motion. In earlier work, approximate inference under the sparse Bayesian model was tackled in an efficient Variational Bayes (VB) framework. In this paper we are interested in the theoretical and empirical quality of uncertainty estimates derived under this approximate scheme vs. under the exact model. We implement an (asymptotically) exact inference scheme based on reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to characterize the posterior distribution of the transformation and compare the predictions of the VB and MCMC based methods. The true posterior distribution under the sparse Bayesian model is found to be meaningful: orders of magnitude for the estimated uncertainty are quantitatively reasonable, the uncertainty is higher in textureless regions and lower in the direction of strong intensity gradients.

  3. Adaptive bayesian analysis for binomial proportions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Das, Sonali

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The authors consider the problem of statistical inference of binomial proportions for non-matched, correlated samples, under the Bayesian framework. Such inference can arise when the same group is observed at a different number of times with the aim...

  4. Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

    KAUST Repository

    Matthies, Hermann G.

    2016-02-13

    In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.

  5. Laser shaft alignment measurement model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo, Chang-tao; Chen, Changzheng; Hou, Xiang-lin; Zhang, Guoyu

    2007-12-01

    Laser beam's track which is on photosensitive surface of the a receiver will be closed curve, when driving shaft and the driven shaft rotate with same angular velocity and rotation direction. The coordinate of arbitrary point which is on the curve is decided by the relative position of two shafts. Basing on the viewpoint, a mathematic model of laser alignment is set up. By using a data acquisition system and a data processing model of laser alignment meter with single laser beam and a detector, and basing on the installation parameter of computer, the state parameter between two shafts can be obtained by more complicated calculation and correction. The correcting data of the four under chassis of the adjusted apparatus moving on the level and the vertical plane can be calculated. This will instruct us to move the apparatus to align the shafts.

  6. Adaptive Processing for Sequence Alignment

    KAUST Repository

    Zidan, Mohammed A.

    2012-01-26

    Disclosed are various embodiments for adaptive processing for sequence alignment. In one embodiment, among others, a method includes obtaining a query sequence and a plurality of database sequences. A first portion of the plurality of database sequences is distributed to a central processing unit (CPU) and a second portion of the plurality of database sequences is distributed to a graphical processing unit (GPU) based upon a predetermined splitting ratio associated with the plurality of database sequences, where the database sequences of the first portion are shorter than the database sequences of the second portion. A first alignment score for the query sequence is determined with the CPU based upon the first portion of the plurality of database sequences and a second alignment score for the query sequence is determined with the GPU based upon the second portion of the plurality of database sequences.

  7. Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

    2011-08-01

    The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls

  8. Improving pairwise sequence alignment accuracy using near-optimal protein sequence alignments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bass Ellen J

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background While the pairwise alignments produced by sequence similarity searches are a powerful tool for identifying homologous proteins - proteins that share a common ancestor and a similar structure; pairwise sequence alignments often fail to represent accurately the structural alignments inferred from three-dimensional coordinates. Since sequence alignment algorithms produce optimal alignments, the best structural alignments must reflect suboptimal sequence alignment scores. Thus, we have examined a range of suboptimal sequence alignments and a range of scoring parameters to understand better which sequence alignments are likely to be more structurally accurate. Results We compared near-optimal protein sequence alignments produced by the Zuker algorithm and a set of probabilistic alignments produced by the probA program with structural alignments produced by four different structure alignment algorithms. There is significant overlap between the solution spaces of structural alignments and both the near-optimal sequence alignments produced by commonly used scoring parameters for sequences that share significant sequence similarity (E-values -5 and the ensemble of probA alignments. We constructed a logistic regression model incorporating three input variables derived from sets of near-optimal alignments: robustness, edge frequency, and maximum bits-per-position. A ROC analysis shows that this model more accurately classifies amino acid pairs (edges in the alignment path graph according to the likelihood of appearance in structural alignments than the robustness score alone. We investigated various trimming protocols for removing incorrect edges from the optimal sequence alignment; the most effective protocol is to remove matches from the semi-global optimal alignment that are outside the boundaries of the local alignment, although trimming according to the model-generated probabilities achieves a similar level of improvement. The

  9. Measurements of magnetic field alignment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuchnir, M.; Schmidt, E.E.

    1987-01-01

    The procedure for installing Superconducting Super Collider (SSC) dipoles in their respective cryostats involves aligning the average direction of their field with the vertical to an accuracy of 0.5 mrad. The equipment developed for carrying on these measurements is described and the measurements performed on the first few prototypes SSC magnets are presented. The field angle as a function of position in these 16.6 m long magnets is a characteristic of the individual magnet with possible feedback information to its manufacturing procedure. A comparison of this vertical alignment characteristic with a magnetic field intensity (by NMR) characteristic for one of the prototypes is also presented. 5 refs., 7 figs

  10. Replacing fuel alignment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poetz, F.; Kalthoff, W.

    1991-01-01

    Up to the end of 1989 varying numbers of broken fuel alignment pins were detected in several German PWRs (80 broken pins in all). The distribution of these broken pins over the core cross-section was more or less random. The problem was due to the stress corrosion cracking of the pin material and was restricted to individual pins. It was concluded that all fuel alignment pins made of Inconel X-750 should be replaced. The development of a new pin, more resistant to intergranular stress corrosion, and the replacement technique are outlined. (author)

  11. XUV ionization of aligned molecules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelkensberg, F.; Siu, W.; Gademann, G. [FOM Institute AMOLF, Science Park 104, NL-1098 XG Amsterdam (Netherlands); Rouzee, A.; Vrakking, M. J. J. [FOM Institute AMOLF, Science Park 104, NL-1098 XG Amsterdam (Netherlands); Max-Born-Institut, Max-Born Strasse 2A, D-12489 Berlin (Germany); Johnsson, P. [FOM Institute AMOLF, Science Park 104, NL-1098 XG Amsterdam (Netherlands); Department of Physics, Lund University, Post Office Box 118, SE-221 00 Lund (Sweden); Lucchini, M. [Department of Physics, Politecnico di Milano, Istituto di Fotonica e Nanotecnologie CNR-IFN, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano (Italy); Lucchese, R. R. [Department of Chemistry, Texas A and M University, College Station, Texas 77843-3255 (United States)

    2011-11-15

    New extreme-ultraviolet (XUV) light sources such as high-order-harmonic generation (HHG) and free-electron lasers (FELs), combined with laser-induced alignment techniques, enable novel methods for making molecular movies based on measuring molecular frame photoelectron angular distributions. Experiments are presented where CO{sub 2} molecules were impulsively aligned using a near-infrared laser and ionized using femtosecond XUV pulses obtained by HHG. Measured electron angular distributions reveal contributions from four orbitals and the onset of the influence of the molecular structure.

  12. Position list word aligned hybrid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deliege, Francois; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2010-01-01

    of storage space. This paper presents the Position List Word Aligned Hybrid (PLWAH) compression scheme that improves significantly over WAH compression by better utilizing the available bits and new CPU instructions. For typical bit distributions, PLWAH compressed bitmaps are often half the size of WAH......Compressed bitmap indexes are increasingly used for efficiently querying very large and complex databases. The Word Aligned Hybrid (WAH) bitmap compression scheme is commonly recognized as the most efficient compression scheme in terms of CPU efficiency. However, WAH compressed bitmaps use a lot...

  13. Learning Local Components to Understand Large Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Yifeng; Xiang, Yanping; Cordero, Jorge

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian networks are known for providing an intuitive and compact representation of probabilistic information and allowing the creation of models over a large and complex domain. Bayesian learning and reasoning are nontrivial for a large Bayesian network. In parallel, it is a tough job for users...... in a domain. We evaluate its performance on three benchmark Bayesian networks and provide results in support. We further show that the learned components may represent local knowledge more precisely in comparison to the full Bayesian networks when working with a small amount of data....

  14. Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Sánchez-Taltavull

    Full Text Available Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities' measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low-especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities' signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset.

  15. Comparing alignment methods for inferring the history of the new world lizard genus Mabuya (Squamata: Scincidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whiting, Alison S; Sites, Jack W; Pellegrino, Katia C M; Rodrigues, Miguel T

    2006-03-01

    The rapid increase in the ability to generate molecular data, and the focus on model-based methods for tree reconstruction have greatly advanced the use of phylogenetics in many fields. The recent flurry of new analytical techniques has focused almost solely on tree reconstruction, whereas alignment issues have received far less attention. In this paper, we use a diverse sampling of gene regions from lizards of the genus Mabuya to compare the impact, on phylogeny estimation, of new maximum likelihood alignment algorithms with more widely used methods. Sequences aligned under different optimality criteria are analyzed using partitioned Bayesian analysis with independent models and parameter settings for each gene region, and the most strongly supported phylogenetic hypothesis is then used to test the hypothesis of two colonizations of the New World by African scincid lizards. Our results show that the consistent use of model-based methods in both alignment and tree reconstruction leads to trees with more optimal likelihood scores than the use of independent criteria in alignment and tree reconstruction. We corroborate and extend earlier evidence for two independent colonizations of South America by scincid lizards. Relationships within South American Mabuya are found to be in need of taxonomic revision, specifically complexes under the names M. heathi, M. agilis, and M. bistriata (sensu, M.T. Rodrigues, Papeis Avulsos de Zoologia 41 (2000) 313).

  16. Bayesian structural equation modeling in sport and exercise psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenling, Andreas; Ivarsson, Andreas; Johnson, Urban; Lindwall, Magnus

    2015-08-01

    Bayesian statistics is on the rise in mainstream psychology, but applications in sport and exercise psychology research are scarce. In this article, the foundations of Bayesian analysis are introduced, and we will illustrate how to apply Bayesian structural equation modeling in a sport and exercise psychology setting. More specifically, we contrasted a confirmatory factor analysis on the Sport Motivation Scale II estimated with the most commonly used estimator, maximum likelihood, and a Bayesian approach with weakly informative priors for cross-loadings and correlated residuals. The results indicated that the model with Bayesian estimation and weakly informative priors provided a good fit to the data, whereas the model estimated with a maximum likelihood estimator did not produce a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation are discussed as well as potential advantages and caveats with the Bayesian approach.

  17. Progressive multiple sequence alignments from triplets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stadler Peter F

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The quality of progressive sequence alignments strongly depends on the accuracy of the individual pairwise alignment steps since gaps that are introduced at one step cannot be removed at later aggregation steps. Adjacent insertions and deletions necessarily appear in arbitrary order in pairwise alignments and hence form an unavoidable source of errors. Research Here we present a modified variant of progressive sequence alignments that addresses both issues. Instead of pairwise alignments we use exact dynamic programming to align sequence or profile triples. This avoids a large fractions of the ambiguities arising in pairwise alignments. In the subsequent aggregation steps we follow the logic of the Neighbor-Net algorithm, which constructs a phylogenetic network by step-wisely replacing triples by pairs instead of combining pairs to singletons. To this end the three-way alignments are subdivided into two partial alignments, at which stage all-gap columns are naturally removed. This alleviates the "once a gap, always a gap" problem of progressive alignment procedures. Conclusion The three-way Neighbor-Net based alignment program aln3nn is shown to compare favorably on both protein sequences and nucleic acids sequences to other progressive alignment tools. In the latter case one easily can include scoring terms that consider secondary structure features. Overall, the quality of resulting alignments in general exceeds that of clustalw or other multiple alignments tools even though our software does not included heuristics for context dependent (mismatch scores.

  18. Aligning Assessments for COSMA Accreditation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laird, Curt; Johnson, Dennis A.; Alderman, Heather

    2015-01-01

    Many higher education sport management programs are currently in the process of seeking accreditation from the Commission on Sport Management Accreditation (COSMA). This article provides a best-practice method for aligning student learning outcomes with a sport management program's mission and goals. Formative and summative assessment procedures…

  19. Global alignment algorithms implementations | Fatumo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we implemented the two routes for sequence comparison, that is; the dotplot and Needleman-wunsch algorithm for global sequence alignment. Our algorithms were implemented in python programming language and were tested on Linux platform 1.60GHz, 512 MB of RAM SUSE 9.2 and 10.1 versions.

  20. Aligning seminars with Bologna requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lueg, Rainer; Lueg, Klarissa; Lauridsen, Ole

    2016-01-01

    learning results, the authors suggest reciprocal peer tutoring (RPT); as a conceptual framework the authors suggest the SOLO (Structure of Observed Learning Outcomes) taxonomy and constructive alignment as suggested by Biggs and Tang. Our study presents results from the introduction of RPT in a large...

  1. Optimization of hindfoot alignment radiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Chonglin; Xu, Xiangyang; Hu, Mu; Wang, Bibo; Zhu, Yuan; Liu, Jinhao

    2017-06-01

    Background Cobey and Buck described methods to evaluate hindfoot alignment, but it is still unclear which method is better and easier to perform in clinical practice. Purpose To evaluate the optimal method for radiography of hindfoot alignment. Material and Methods We randomly selected 50 patients visiting the foot and ankle surgery outpatient department who underwent hindfoot alignment radiography between 1 July and 31 August 2015. Radiographs were taken using both Cobey's and Buck's methods. The patients were divided into three groups by calcaneal inclination angle. We assessed the calcaneotibial angle, calcaneovertical angle, and the distance from the bottom of the calcaneus to the mid-tibial axis. A comparative analysis was performed separately using the t-test. Results One hundred pairs of data for Cobey's and Buck's methods were obtained. The angles were analyzed separately in valgus, normal, and varus situations. The results showed no significant difference between Cobey's method and Buck's method regardless of any situation ( P > 0.05). Regarding the distance between the bottom of the calcaneus and the mid-tibial axis, the average result of Buck's method was about 1 mm larger than that of Cobey's method in the valgus and normal cases ( P  0.05). Conclusion Cobey's and Buck's techniques are the classic and popular hindfoot alignment assessment methods. The use of Buck's technique resulted in a better image with a less technical procedure and less time requirement. It is worthy of being popularized and used routinely for hindfoot radiography.

  2. Multimodal alignment during collaborative remembering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cienki, A.J.; Bietti, L.M.; Kok, K.I.

    2014-01-01

    This article investigates the roles that interactive alignment of manual gesture, postural sway, and eye-gaze play in small groups engaged in collaborative remembering. Qualitative analyses of a video corpus demonstrate that the coordination of these behaviors may contribute to joint remembering in

  3. Bayesian networks in overlay recipe optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binns, Lewis A.; Reynolds, Greg; Rigden, Timothy C.; Watkins, Stephen; Soroka, Andrew

    2005-05-01

    Currently, overlay measurements are characterized by "recipe", which defines both physical parameters such as focus, illumination et cetera, and also the software parameters such as algorithm to be used and regions of interest. Setting up these recipes requires both engineering time and wafer availability on an overlay tool, so reducing these requirements will result in higher tool productivity. One of the significant challenges to automating this process is that the parameters are highly and complexly correlated. At the same time, a high level of traceability and transparency is required in the recipe creation process, so a technique that maintains its decisions in terms of well defined physical parameters is desirable. Running time should be short, given the system (automatic recipe creation) is being implemented to reduce overheads. Finally, a failure of the system to determine acceptable parameters should be obvious, so a certainty metric is also desirable. The complex, nonlinear interactions make solution by an expert system difficult at best, especially in the verification of the resulting decision network. The transparency requirements tend to preclude classical neural networks and similar techniques. Genetic algorithms and other "global minimization" techniques require too much computational power (given system footprint and cost requirements). A Bayesian network, however, provides a solution to these requirements. Such a network, with appropriate priors, can be used during recipe creation / optimization not just to select a good set of parameters, but also to guide the direction of search, by evaluating the network state while only incomplete information is available. As a Bayesian network maintains an estimate of the probability distribution of nodal values, a maximum-entropy approach can be utilized to obtain a working recipe in a minimum or near-minimum number of steps. In this paper we discuss the potential use of a Bayesian network in such a capacity

  4. Can natural selection encode Bayesian priors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez, Juan Camilo; Marshall, James A R

    2017-08-07

    The evolutionary success of many organisms depends on their ability to make decisions based on estimates of the state of their environment (e.g., predation risk) from uncertain information. These decision problems have optimal solutions and individuals in nature are expected to evolve the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if using the optimal solutions. Bayesian inference is the optimal method to produce estimates from uncertain data, thus natural selection is expected to favour individuals with the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if they were computing Bayesian estimates in typically-experienced environments, although this does not necessarily imply that favoured decision-makers do perform Bayesian computations exactly. Each individual should evolve to behave as if updating a prior estimate of the unknown environment variable to a posterior estimate as it collects evidence. The prior estimate represents the decision-maker's default belief regarding the environment variable, i.e., the individual's default 'worldview' of the environment. This default belief has been hypothesised to be shaped by natural selection and represent the environment experienced by the individual's ancestors. We present an evolutionary model to explore how accurately Bayesian prior estimates can be encoded genetically and shaped by natural selection when decision-makers learn from uncertain information. The model simulates the evolution of a population of individuals that are required to estimate the probability of an event. Every individual has a prior estimate of this probability and collects noisy cues from the environment in order to update its prior belief to a Bayesian posterior estimate with the evidence gained. The prior is inherited and passed on to offspring. Fitness increases with the accuracy of the posterior estimates produced. Simulations show that prior estimates become accurate over evolutionary time. In addition to these 'Bayesian' individuals, we also

  5. Ancestral sequence alignment under optimal conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brown Daniel G

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multiple genome alignment is an important problem in bioinformatics. An important subproblem used by many multiple alignment approaches is that of aligning two multiple alignments. Many popular alignment algorithms for DNA use the sum-of-pairs heuristic, where the score of a multiple alignment is the sum of its induced pairwise alignment scores. However, the biological meaning of the sum-of-pairs of pairs heuristic is not obvious. Additionally, many algorithms based on the sum-of-pairs heuristic are complicated and slow, compared to pairwise alignment algorithms. An alternative approach to aligning alignments is to first infer ancestral sequences for each alignment, and then align the two ancestral sequences. In addition to being fast, this method has a clear biological basis that takes into account the evolution implied by an underlying phylogenetic tree. In this study we explore the accuracy of aligning alignments by ancestral sequence alignment. We examine the use of both maximum likelihood and parsimony to infer ancestral sequences. Additionally, we investigate the effect on accuracy of allowing ambiguity in our ancestral sequences. Results We use synthetic sequence data that we generate by simulating evolution on a phylogenetic tree. We use two different types of phylogenetic trees: trees with a period of rapid growth followed by a period of slow growth, and trees with a period of slow growth followed by a period of rapid growth. We examine the alignment accuracy of four ancestral sequence reconstruction and alignment methods: parsimony, maximum likelihood, ambiguous parsimony, and ambiguous maximum likelihood. Additionally, we compare against the alignment accuracy of two sum-of-pairs algorithms: ClustalW and the heuristic of Ma, Zhang, and Wang. Conclusion We find that allowing ambiguity in ancestral sequences does not lead to better multiple alignments. Regardless of whether we use parsimony or maximum likelihood, the

  6. Bayesian Modelling of Functional Whole Brain Connectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røge, Rasmus

    This thesis deals with parcellation of whole-brain functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) using Bayesian inference with mixture models tailored to the fMRI data. In the three included papers and manuscripts, we analyze two different approaches to modeling fMRI signal; either we accept...... the prevalent strategy of standardizing of fMRI time series and model data using directional statistics or we model the variability in the signal across the brain and across multiple subjects. In either case, we use Bayesian nonparametric modeling to automatically learn from the fMRI data the number...... of funcional units, i.e. parcels. We benchmark the proposed mixture models against state of the art methods of brain parcellation, both probabilistic and non-probabilistic. The time series of each voxel are most often standardized using z-scoring which projects the time series data onto a hypersphere...

  7. Bayesian Peak Picking for NMR Spectra

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Yichen

    2014-02-01

    Protein structure determination is a very important topic in structural genomics, which helps people to understand varieties of biological functions such as protein-protein interactions, protein–DNA interactions and so on. Nowadays, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) has often been used to determine the three-dimensional structures of protein in vivo. This study aims to automate the peak picking step, the most important and tricky step in NMR structure determination. We propose to model the NMR spectrum by a mixture of bivariate Gaussian densities and use the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm as the computational tool to solve the problem. Under the Bayesian framework, the peak picking problem is casted as a variable selection problem. The proposed method can automatically distinguish true peaks from false ones without preprocessing the data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort in the literature that tackles the peak picking problem for NMR spectrum data using Bayesian method.

  8. Structure Learning in Bayesian Sensorimotor Integration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Genewein

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have shown that sensorimotor processing can often be described by Bayesian learning, in particular the integration of prior and feedback information depending on its degree of reliability. Here we test the hypothesis that the integration process itself can be tuned to the statistical structure of the environment. We exposed human participants to a reaching task in a three-dimensional virtual reality environment where we could displace the visual feedback of their hand position in a two dimensional plane. When introducing statistical structure between the two dimensions of the displacement, we found that over the course of several days participants adapted their feedback integration process in order to exploit this structure for performance improvement. In control experiments we found that this adaptation process critically depended on performance feedback and could not be induced by verbal instructions. Our results suggest that structural learning is an important meta-learning component of Bayesian sensorimotor integration.

  9. Machine learning a Bayesian and optimization perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Theodoridis, Sergios

    2015-01-01

    This tutorial text gives a unifying perspective on machine learning by covering both probabilistic and deterministic approaches, which rely on optimization techniques, as well as Bayesian inference, which is based on a hierarchy of probabilistic models. The book presents the major machine learning methods as they have been developed in different disciplines, such as statistics, statistical and adaptive signal processing and computer science. Focusing on the physical reasoning behind the mathematics, all the various methods and techniques are explained in depth, supported by examples and problems, giving an invaluable resource to the student and researcher for understanding and applying machine learning concepts. The book builds carefully from the basic classical methods to the most recent trends, with chapters written to be as self-contained as possible, making the text suitable for different courses: pattern recognition, statistical/adaptive signal processing, statistical/Bayesian learning, as well as shor...

  10. Bayesian image reconstruction: Application to emission tomography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nunez, J.; Llacer, J.

    1989-02-01

    In this paper we propose a Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) method of image reconstruction in the Bayesian framework for the Poisson noise case. We use entropy to define the prior probability and likelihood to define the conditional probability. The method uses sharpness parameters which can be theoretically computed or adjusted, allowing us to obtain MAP reconstructions without the problem of the grey'' reconstructions associated with the pre Bayesian reconstructions. We have developed several ways to solve the reconstruction problem and propose a new iterative algorithm which is stable, maintains positivity and converges to feasible images faster than the Maximum Likelihood Estimate method. We have successfully applied the new method to the case of Emission Tomography, both with simulated and real data. 41 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  11. Distributed Bayesian Networks for User Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tedesco, Roberto; Dolog, Peter; Nejdl, Wolfgang

    2006-01-01

    The World Wide Web is a popular platform for providing eLearning applications to a wide spectrum of users. However – as users differ in their preferences, background, requirements, and goals – applications should provide personalization mechanisms. In the Web context, user models used...... by such adaptive applications are often partial fragments of an overall user model. The fragments have then to be collected and merged into a global user profile. In this paper we investigate and present algorithms able to cope with distributed, fragmented user models – based on Bayesian Networks – in the context...... of Web-based eLearning platforms. The scenario we are tackling assumes learners who use several systems over time, which are able to create partial Bayesian Networks for user models based on the local system context. In particular, we focus on how to merge these partial user models. Our merge mechanism...

  12. Bayesian long branch attraction bias and corrections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susko, Edward

    2015-03-01

    Previous work on the star-tree paradox has shown that Bayesian methods suffer from a long branch attraction bias. That work is extended to settings involving more taxa and partially resolved trees. The long branch attraction bias is confirmed to arise more broadly and an additional source of bias is found. A by-product of the analysis is methods that correct for biases toward particular topologies. The corrections can be easily calculated using existing Bayesian software. Posterior support for a set of two or more trees can thus be supplemented with corrected versions to cross-check or replace results. Simulations show the corrections to be highly effective. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Bayesian Peak Picking for NMR Spectra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yichen Cheng

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Protein structure determination is a very important topic in structural genomics, which helps people to understand varieties of biological functions such as protein-protein interactions, protein–DNA interactions and so on. Nowadays, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR has often been used to determine the three-dimensional structures of protein in vivo. This study aims to automate the peak picking step, the most important and tricky step in NMR structure determination. We propose to model the NMR spectrum by a mixture of bivariate Gaussian densities and use the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm as the computational tool to solve the problem. Under the Bayesian framework, the peak picking problem is casted as a variable selection problem. The proposed method can automatically distinguish true peaks from false ones without preprocessing the data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort in the literature that tackles the peak picking problem for NMR spectrum data using Bayesian method.

  14. Bayesianism and inference to the best explanation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriano IRANZO

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Bayesianism and Inference to the best explanation (IBE are two different models of inference. Recently there has been some debate about the possibility of “bayesianizing” IBE. Firstly I explore several alternatives to include explanatory considerations in Bayes’s Theorem. Then I distinguish two different interpretations of prior probabilities: “IBE-Bayesianism” (IBE-Bay and “frequentist-Bayesianism” (Freq-Bay. After detailing the content of the latter, I propose a rule for assessing the priors. I also argue that Freq-Bay: (i endorses a role for explanatory value in the assessment of scientific hypotheses; (ii avoids a purely subjectivist reading of prior probabilities; and (iii fits better than IBE-Bayesianism with two basic facts about science, i.e., the prominent role played by empirical testing and the existence of many scientific theories in the past that failed to fulfil their promises and were subsequently abandoned.

  15. Software Health Management with Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengshoel, Ole; Schumann, JOhann

    2011-01-01

    Most modern aircraft as well as other complex machinery is equipped with diagnostics systems for its major subsystems. During operation, sensors provide important information about the subsystem (e.g., the engine) and that information is used to detect and diagnose faults. Most of these systems focus on the monitoring of a mechanical, hydraulic, or electromechanical subsystem of the vehicle or machinery. Only recently, health management systems that monitor software have been developed. In this paper, we will discuss our approach of using Bayesian networks for Software Health Management (SWHM). We will discuss SWHM requirements, which make advanced reasoning capabilities for the detection and diagnosis important. Then we will present our approach to using Bayesian networks for the construction of health models that dynamically monitor a software system and is capable of detecting and diagnosing faults.

  16. Disentangling Complexity in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Gheorghe; Adam, Sanda

    2018-02-01

    The paper describes a Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature (BAAQ) solution for numerical integration which is simultaneously robust, reliable, and efficient. Detailed discussion is provided of three main factors which contribute to the enhancement of these features: (1) refinement of the m-panel automatic adaptive scheme through the use of integration-domain-length-scale-adapted quadrature sums; (2) fast early problem complexity assessment - enables the non-transitive choice among three execution paths: (i) immediate termination (exceptional cases); (ii) pessimistic - involves time and resource consuming Bayesian inference resulting in radical reformulation of the problem to be solved; (iii) optimistic - asks exclusively for subrange subdivision by bisection; (3) use of the weaker accuracy target from the two possible ones (the input accuracy specifications and the intrinsic integrand properties respectively) - results in maximum possible solution accuracy under minimum possible computing time.

  17. Narrowband interference parameterization for sparse Bayesian recovery

    KAUST Repository

    Ali, Anum

    2015-09-11

    This paper addresses the problem of narrowband interference (NBI) in SC-FDMA systems by using tools from compressed sensing and stochastic geometry. The proposed NBI cancellation scheme exploits the frequency domain sparsity of the unknown signal and adopts a Bayesian sparse recovery procedure. This is done by keeping a few randomly chosen sub-carriers data free to sense the NBI signal at the receiver. As Bayesian recovery requires knowledge of some NBI parameters (i.e., mean, variance and sparsity rate), we use tools from stochastic geometry to obtain analytical expressions for the required parameters. Our simulation results validate the analysis and depict suitability of the proposed recovery method for NBI mitigation. © 2015 IEEE.

  18. Bayesian information fusion networks for biosurveillance applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mnatsakanyan, Zaruhi R; Burkom, Howard S; Coberly, Jacqueline S; Lombardo, Joseph S

    2009-01-01

    This study introduces new information fusion algorithms to enhance disease surveillance systems with Bayesian decision support capabilities. A detection system was built and tested using chief complaints from emergency department visits, International Classification of Diseases Revision 9 (ICD-9) codes from records of outpatient visits to civilian and military facilities, and influenza surveillance data from health departments in the National Capital Region (NCR). Data anomalies were identified and distribution of time offsets between events in the multiple data streams were established. The Bayesian Network was built to fuse data from multiple sources and identify influenza-like epidemiologically relevant events. Results showed increased specificity compared with the alerts generated by temporal anomaly detection algorithms currently deployed by NCR health departments. Further research should be done to investigate correlations between data sources for efficient fusion of the collected data.

  19. Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neil, Martin; Tailor, Manesh; Marquez, David; Fenton, Norman; Hearty, Peter

    2008-01-01

    A hybrid Bayesian network (BN) is one that incorporates both discrete and continuous nodes. In our extensive applications of BNs for system dependability assessment, the models are invariably hybrid and the need for efficient and accurate computation is paramount. We apply a new iterative algorithm that efficiently combines dynamic discretisation with robust propagation algorithms on junction tree structures to perform inference in hybrid BNs. We illustrate its use in the field of dependability with two example of reliability estimation. Firstly we estimate the reliability of a simple single system and next we implement a hierarchical Bayesian model. In the hierarchical model we compute the reliability of two unknown subsystems from data collected on historically similar subsystems and then input the result into a reliability block model to compute system level reliability. We conclude that dynamic discretisation can be used as an alternative to analytical or Monte Carlo methods with high precision and can be applied to a wide range of dependability problems

  20. Probabilistic forecasting and Bayesian data assimilation

    CERN Document Server

    Reich, Sebastian

    2015-01-01

    In this book the authors describe the principles and methods behind probabilistic forecasting and Bayesian data assimilation. Instead of focusing on particular application areas, the authors adopt a general dynamical systems approach, with a profusion of low-dimensional, discrete-time numerical examples designed to build intuition about the subject. Part I explains the mathematical framework of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty quantification. Part II is devoted to Bayesian filtering algorithms, from classical data assimilation algorithms such as the Kalman filter, variational techniques, and sequential Monte Carlo methods, through to more recent developments such as the ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble transform filters. The McKean approach to sequential filtering in combination with coupling of measures serves as a unifying mathematical framework throughout Part II. Assuming only some basic familiarity with probability, this book is an ideal introduction for graduate students in ap...

  1. Bayesian hypothesis testing: Editorial to the Special Issue on Bayesian data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoijtink, Herbert; Chow, Sy-Miin

    2017-06-01

    In the past 20 years, there has been a steadily increasing attention and demand for Bayesian data analysis across multiple scientific disciplines, including psychology. Bayesian methods and the related Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques offered renewed ways of handling old and challenging new problems that may be difficult or impossible to handle using classical approaches. Yet, such opportunities and potential improvements have not been sufficiently explored and investigated. This is 1 of 2 special issues in Psychological Methods dedicated to the topic of Bayesian data analysis, with an emphasis on Bayesian hypothesis testing, model comparison, and general guidelines for applications in psychology. In this editorial, we provide an overview of the use of Bayesian methods in psychological research and a brief history of the Bayes factor and the posterior predictive p value. Translational abstracts that summarize the articles in this issue in very clear and understandable terms are included in the Appendix. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Bayesian estimation of Weibull distribution parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bacha, M.; Celeux, G.; Idee, E.; Lannoy, A.; Vasseur, D.

    1994-11-01

    In this paper, we expose SEM (Stochastic Expectation Maximization) and WLB-SIR (Weighted Likelihood Bootstrap - Sampling Importance Re-sampling) methods which are used to estimate Weibull distribution parameters when data are very censored. The second method is based on Bayesian inference and allow to take into account available prior informations on parameters. An application of this method, with real data provided by nuclear power plants operation feedback analysis has been realized. (authors). 8 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  3. Essays on portfolio choice with Bayesian methods

    OpenAIRE

    Kebabci, Deniz

    2007-01-01

    How investors should allocate assets to their portfolios in the presence of predictable components in asset returns is a question of great importance in finance. While early studies took the return generating process as given, recent studies have addressed issues such as parameter estimation and model uncertainty. My dissertation develops Bayesian methods for portfolio choice - and industry allocation in particular - under parameter and model uncertainty. The first chapter of my dissertation,...

  4. Characteristic imsets for learning Bayesian network structure

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hemmecke, R.; Lindner, S.; Studený, Milan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 9 (2012), s. 1336-1349 ISSN 0888-613X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M0572; GA ČR GA201/08/0539 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : learning Bayesian network structure * essential graph * standard imset * characteristic imset * LP relaxation of a polytope Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.729, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/MTR/studeny-0382596.pdf

  5. Centralized Bayesian reliability modelling with sensor networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dedecius, Kamil; Sečkárová, Vladimíra

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 5 (2013), s. 471-482 ISSN 1387-3954 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 7D12004 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) SVV-265315 Keywords : Bayesian modelling * Sensor network * Reliability Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 0.984, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/AS/dedecius-0392551.pdf

  6. SAFETY RISK ASSESSMENT USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor M. Rukhlinskiy

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The solution of the problem of modelling and quantitative assessment of flight safety risk is being considered in this paper. The article considers the main groups of mathematical models used to quantify the risks of flight safety, which can be used by providers of aviation services. The authors demonstrate and discuss risk modeling possibilities in the field of flight safety on the basis of Bayesian belief networks.In this paper a mathematical model is built on the basis of identified hazards, and this model allows to determine the level of risk for each hazard and the consequences of their occurrence using Bayesian belief networks, consisting of marginal probability distributions graph and conditional probability tables. This mathematical model allows to determine the following, based on the data on adverse events and hazard identification: the probability of various adverse events in all dangers occurrence, the risk level for each of the identified hazards, the most likely consequences of the given danger oc- currence. For risk modeling in the field of flight safety on the basis of Bayesian belief networks there were used supple- mentary Bayes Net Toolbox for MATLAB with open source. To determine the level of risk in the form specified in ICAO Doc 9859 "Flight Safety Management Manual" of the International Civil Aviation Organization, the authors wrote a func- tion to MATLAB, allowing each pair of probability - to set severity level in line with alphanumeric value and significance of the risk category.Risk model in the field of flight safety on the basis of Bayesian belief networks corresponds to the definition of risk by Kaplan and Garrick. The advantage of the developed risk assessment method over other methods is shown in the paper.

  7. Personalized Audio Systems - a Bayesian Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jens Brehm; Jensen, Bjørn Sand; Hansen, Toke Jansen

    2013-01-01

    , the present paper presents a general inter-active framework for personalization of such audio systems. The framework builds on Bayesian Gaussian process regression in which a model of the users's objective function is updated sequentially. The parameter setting to be evaluated in a given trial is selected...... are optimized using the proposed framework. Twelve test subjects obtain a personalized setting with the framework, and these settings are signicantly preferred to those obtained with random experimentation....

  8. Bayesian estimation of traffic lane state

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Nagy, Ivan; Kárný, Miroslav; Nedoma, Petr; Voráčová, Š.

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 1 (2003), s. 51-65 ISSN 0890-6327 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/03/0049; GA AV ČR IBS1075351 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : mixture models * estimation * Bayesian approach Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.602, year: 2003 http://library.utia.cas.cz/prace/20030021.ps

  9. Multilevel Monte Carlo in Approximate Bayesian Computation

    KAUST Repository

    Jasra, Ajay

    2017-02-13

    In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference. We introduce a method for numerically approximating ABC posteriors using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). A sequential Monte Carlo version of the approach is developed and it is shown under some assumptions that for a given level of mean square error, this method for ABC has a lower cost than i.i.d. sampling from the most accurate ABC approximation. Several numerical examples are given.

  10. Dimensionality reduction in Bayesian estimation algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    G. W. Petty

    2013-01-01

    An idealized synthetic database loosely resembling 3-channel passive microwave observations of precipitation against a variable background is employed to examine the performance of a conventional Bayesian retrieval algorithm. For this dataset, algorithm performance is found to be poor owing to an irreconcilable conflict between the need to find matches in the dependent database versus the need to exclude inappropriate matches. It is argued that the likelihood of such conflicts increase...

  11. Dimensionality reduction in Bayesian estimation algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    G. W. Petty

    2013-01-01

    An idealized synthetic database loosely resembling 3-channel passive microwave observations of precipitation against a variable background is employed to examine the performance of a conventional Bayesian retrieval algorithm. For this dataset, algorithm performance is found to be poor owing to an irreconcilable conflict between the need to find matches in the dependent database versus the need to exclude inappropriate matches. It is argued that the likelihood of such conf...

  12. Constrained bayesian inference of project performance models

    OpenAIRE

    Sunmola, Funlade

    2013-01-01

    Project performance models play an important role in the management of project success. When used for monitoring projects, they can offer predictive ability such as indications of possible delivery problems. Approaches for monitoring project performance relies on available project information including restrictions imposed on the project, particularly the constraints of cost, quality, scope and time. We study in this paper a Bayesian inference methodology for project performance modelling in ...

  13. Approximation of Bayesian Inverse Problems for PDEs

    OpenAIRE

    Cotter, S. L.; Dashti, M.; Stuart, A. M.

    2010-01-01

    Inverse problems are often ill posed, with solutions that depend sensitively on data.n any numerical approach to the solution of such problems, regularization of some form is needed to counteract the resulting instability. This paper is based on an approach to regularization, employing a Bayesian formulation of the problem, which leads to a notion of well posedness for inverse problems, at the level of probability measures. The stability which results from this well posedness may be used as t...

  14. Bayesian analysis of Markov point processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berthelsen, Kasper Klitgaard; Møller, Jesper

    2006-01-01

    Recently Møller, Pettitt, Berthelsen and Reeves introduced a new MCMC methodology for drawing samples from a posterior distribution when the likelihood function is only specified up to a normalising constant. We illustrate the method in the setting of Bayesian inference for Markov point processes...... a partially ordered Markov point process as the auxiliary variable. As the method requires simulation from the "unknown" likelihood, perfect simulation algorithms for spatial point processes become useful....

  15. Bayesian Inference Methods for Sparse Channel Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand

    2013-01-01

    of Bayesian inference algorithms for sparse channel estimation. Sparse inference methods aim at finding the sparse representation of a signal given in some overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors. Within this context, one of our main contributions to the field of SBL is a hierarchical representation...... and computational complexity. We also analyze the impact of transceiver filters on the sparseness of the channel response, and propose a dictionary design that permits the deployment of sparse inference methods in conditions of low bandwidth....

  16. Network structure exploration via Bayesian nonparametric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Y; Wang, X L; Xiang, X; Tang, B Z; Bu, J Z

    2015-01-01

    Complex networks provide a powerful mathematical representation of complex systems in nature and society. To understand complex networks, it is crucial to explore their internal structures, also called structural regularities. The task of network structure exploration is to determine how many groups there are in a complex network and how to group the nodes of the network. Most existing structure exploration methods need to specify either a group number or a certain type of structure when they are applied to a network. In the real world, however, the group number and also the certain type of structure that a network has are usually unknown in advance. To explore structural regularities in complex networks automatically, without any prior knowledge of the group number or the certain type of structure, we extend a probabilistic mixture model that can handle networks with any type of structure but needs to specify a group number using Bayesian nonparametric theory. We also propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric model, called the Bayesian nonparametric mixture (BNPM) model. Experiments conducted on a large number of networks with different structures show that the BNPM model is able to explore structural regularities in networks automatically with a stable, state-of-the-art performance. (paper)

  17. Bayesian Methods for Radiation Detection and Dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peter G. Groer

    2002-01-01

    We performed work in three areas: radiation detection, external and internal radiation dosimetry. In radiation detection we developed Bayesian techniques to estimate the net activity of high and low activity radioactive samples. These techniques have the advantage that the remaining uncertainty about the net activity is described by probability densities. Graphs of the densities show the uncertainty in pictorial form. Figure 1 below demonstrates this point. We applied stochastic processes for a method to obtain Bayesian estimates of 222Rn-daughter products from observed counting rates. In external radiation dosimetry we studied and developed Bayesian methods to estimate radiation doses to an individual with radiation induced chromosome aberrations. We analyzed chromosome aberrations after exposure to gammas and neutrons and developed a method for dose-estimation after criticality accidents. The research in internal radiation dosimetry focused on parameter estimation for compartmental models from observed compartmental activities. From the estimated probability densities of the model parameters we were able to derive the densities for compartmental activities for a two compartment catenary model at different times. We also calculated the average activities and their standard deviation for a simple two compartment model

  18. Bayesian Inference of a Multivariate Regression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marick S. Sinay

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We explore Bayesian inference of a multivariate linear regression model with use of a flexible prior for the covariance structure. The commonly adopted Bayesian setup involves the conjugate prior, multivariate normal distribution for the regression coefficients and inverse Wishart specification for the covariance matrix. Here we depart from this approach and propose a novel Bayesian estimator for the covariance. A multivariate normal prior for the unique elements of the matrix logarithm of the covariance matrix is considered. Such structure allows for a richer class of prior distributions for the covariance, with respect to strength of beliefs in prior location hyperparameters, as well as the added ability, to model potential correlation amongst the covariance structure. The posterior moments of all relevant parameters of interest are calculated based upon numerical results via a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. The Metropolis-Hastings-within-Gibbs algorithm is invoked to account for the construction of a proposal density that closely matches the shape of the target posterior distribution. As an application of the proposed technique, we investigate a multiple regression based upon the 1980 High School and Beyond Survey.

  19. Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Cripps

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine if the patterns of within-person responses on a 12 trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999. ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability, which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiralling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of within-person processes at the individual level, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques.

  20. Bayesian methodology for reliability model acceptance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Ruoxue; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2003-01-01

    This paper develops a methodology to assess the reliability computation model validity using the concept of Bayesian hypothesis testing, by comparing the model prediction and experimental observation, when there is only one computational model available to evaluate system behavior. Time-independent and time-dependent problems are investigated, with consideration of both cases: with and without statistical uncertainty in the model. The case of time-independent failure probability prediction with no statistical uncertainty is a straightforward application of Bayesian hypothesis testing. However, for the life prediction (time-dependent reliability) problem, a new methodology is developed in this paper to make the same Bayesian hypothesis testing concept applicable. With the existence of statistical uncertainty in the model, in addition to the application of a predictor estimator of the Bayes factor, the uncertainty in the Bayes factor is explicitly quantified through treating it as a random variable and calculating the probability that it exceeds a specified value. The developed method provides a rational criterion to decision-makers for the acceptance or rejection of the computational model

  1. Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network for Language Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chien, Jen-Tzung; Ku, Yuan-Chu

    2016-02-01

    A language model (LM) is calculated as the probability of a word sequence that provides the solution to word prediction for a variety of information systems. A recurrent neural network (RNN) is powerful to learn the large-span dynamics of a word sequence in the continuous space. However, the training of the RNN-LM is an ill-posed problem because of too many parameters from a large dictionary size and a high-dimensional hidden layer. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to regularize the RNN-LM and apply it for continuous speech recognition. We aim to penalize the too complicated RNN-LM by compensating for the uncertainty of the estimated model parameters, which is represented by a Gaussian prior. The objective function in a Bayesian classification network is formed as the regularized cross-entropy error function. The regularized model is constructed not only by calculating the regularized parameters according to the maximum a posteriori criterion but also by estimating the Gaussian hyperparameter by maximizing the marginal likelihood. A rapid approximation to a Hessian matrix is developed to implement the Bayesian RNN-LM (BRNN-LM) by selecting a small set of salient outer-products. The proposed BRNN-LM achieves a sparser model than the RNN-LM. Experiments on different corpora show the robustness of system performance by applying the rapid BRNN-LM under different conditions.

  2. Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach

    CERN Document Server

    Adam, Jaroslav; Aggarwal, Madan Mohan; Aglieri Rinella, Gianluca; Agnello, Michelangelo; Agrawal, Neelima; Ahammed, Zubayer; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahn, Sang Un; Aiola, Salvatore; Akindinov, Alexander; Alam, Sk Noor; Silva De Albuquerque, Danilo; Aleksandrov, Dmitry; Alessandro, Bruno; Alexandre, Didier; Alfaro Molina, Jose Ruben; Alici, Andrea; Alkin, Anton; Millan Almaraz, Jesus Roberto; Alme, Johan; Alt, Torsten; Altinpinar, Sedat; Altsybeev, Igor; Alves Garcia Prado, Caio; Andrei, Cristian; Andronic, Anton; Anguelov, Venelin; Anticic, Tome; Antinori, Federico; Antonioli, Pietro; Aphecetche, Laurent Bernard; Appelshaeuser, Harald; Arcelli, Silvia; Arnaldi, Roberta; Arnold, Oliver Werner; Arsene, Ionut Cristian; Arslandok, Mesut; Audurier, Benjamin; Augustinus, Andre; Averbeck, Ralf Peter; Azmi, Mohd Danish; Badala, Angela; Baek, Yong Wook; Bagnasco, Stefano; Bailhache, Raphaelle Marie; Bala, Renu; Balasubramanian, Supraja; Baldisseri, Alberto; Baral, Rama Chandra; Barbano, Anastasia Maria; Barbera, Roberto; Barile, Francesco; Barnafoldi, Gergely Gabor; Barnby, Lee Stuart; Ramillien Barret, Valerie; Bartalini, Paolo; Barth, Klaus; Bartke, Jerzy Gustaw; Bartsch, Esther; Basile, Maurizio; Bastid, Nicole; Basu, Sumit; Bathen, Bastian; Batigne, Guillaume; Batista Camejo, Arianna; Batyunya, Boris; Batzing, Paul Christoph; Bearden, Ian Gardner; Beck, Hans; Bedda, Cristina; Behera, Nirbhay Kumar; Belikov, Iouri; Bellini, Francesca; Bello Martinez, Hector; Bellwied, Rene; Belmont Iii, Ronald John; Belmont Moreno, Ernesto; Belyaev, Vladimir; Benacek, Pavel; Bencedi, Gyula; Beole, Stefania; Berceanu, Ionela; Bercuci, Alexandru; Berdnikov, Yaroslav; Berenyi, Daniel; Bertens, Redmer Alexander; Berzano, Dario; Betev, Latchezar; Bhasin, Anju; Bhat, Inayat Rasool; Bhati, Ashok Kumar; Bhattacharjee, Buddhadeb; Bhom, Jihyun; Bianchi, Livio; Bianchi, Nicola; Bianchin, Chiara; Bielcik, Jaroslav; Bielcikova, Jana; Bilandzic, Ante; Biro, Gabor; Biswas, Rathijit; Biswas, Saikat; Bjelogrlic, Sandro; Blair, Justin Thomas; Blau, Dmitry; Blume, Christoph; Bock, Friederike; Bogdanov, Alexey; Boggild, Hans; Boldizsar, Laszlo; Bombara, Marek; Book, Julian Heinz; Borel, Herve; Borissov, Alexander; Borri, Marcello; Bossu, Francesco; Botta, Elena; Bourjau, Christian; Braun-Munzinger, Peter; Bregant, Marco; Breitner, Timo Gunther; Broker, Theo Alexander; Browning, Tyler Allen; Broz, Michal; Brucken, Erik Jens; Bruna, Elena; Bruno, Giuseppe Eugenio; Budnikov, Dmitry; Buesching, Henner; Bufalino, Stefania; Buncic, Predrag; Busch, Oliver; Buthelezi, Edith Zinhle; Bashir Butt, Jamila; Buxton, Jesse Thomas; Cabala, Jan; Caffarri, Davide; Cai, Xu; Caines, Helen Louise; Calero Diaz, Liliet; Caliva, Alberto; Calvo Villar, Ernesto; Camerini, Paolo; Carena, Francesco; Carena, Wisla; Carnesecchi, Francesca; Castillo Castellanos, Javier Ernesto; Castro, Andrew John; Casula, Ester Anna Rita; Ceballos Sanchez, Cesar; Cepila, Jan; Cerello, Piergiorgio; Cerkala, Jakub; Chang, Beomsu; Chapeland, Sylvain; Chartier, Marielle; Charvet, Jean-Luc Fernand; Chattopadhyay, Subhasis; Chattopadhyay, Sukalyan; Chauvin, Alex; Chelnokov, Volodymyr; Cherney, Michael Gerard; Cheshkov, Cvetan Valeriev; Cheynis, Brigitte; Chibante Barroso, Vasco Miguel; Dobrigkeit Chinellato, David; Cho, Soyeon; Chochula, Peter; Choi, Kyungeon; Chojnacki, Marek; Choudhury, Subikash; Christakoglou, Panagiotis; Christensen, Christian Holm; Christiansen, Peter; Chujo, Tatsuya; Chung, Suh-Urk; Cicalo, Corrado; Cifarelli, Luisa; Cindolo, Federico; Cleymans, Jean Willy Andre; Colamaria, Fabio Filippo; Colella, Domenico; Collu, Alberto; Colocci, Manuel; Conesa Balbastre, Gustavo; Conesa Del Valle, Zaida; Connors, Megan Elizabeth; Contreras Nuno, Jesus Guillermo; Cormier, Thomas Michael; Corrales Morales, Yasser; Cortes Maldonado, Ismael; Cortese, Pietro; Cosentino, Mauro Rogerio; Costa, Filippo; Crochet, Philippe; Cruz Albino, Rigoberto; Cuautle Flores, Eleazar; Cunqueiro Mendez, Leticia; Dahms, Torsten; Dainese, Andrea; Danisch, Meike Charlotte; Danu, Andrea; Das, Debasish; Das, Indranil; Das, Supriya; Dash, Ajay Kumar; Dash, Sadhana; De, Sudipan; De Caro, Annalisa; De Cataldo, Giacinto; De Conti, Camila; De Cuveland, Jan; De Falco, Alessandro; De Gruttola, Daniele; De Marco, Nora; De Pasquale, Salvatore; Deisting, Alexander; Deloff, Andrzej; Denes, Ervin Sandor; Deplano, Caterina; Dhankher, Preeti; Di Bari, Domenico; Di Mauro, Antonio; Di Nezza, Pasquale; Diaz Corchero, Miguel Angel; Dietel, Thomas; Dillenseger, Pascal; Divia, Roberto; Djuvsland, Oeystein; Dobrin, Alexandru Florin; Domenicis Gimenez, Diogenes; Donigus, Benjamin; Dordic, Olja; Drozhzhova, Tatiana; Dubey, Anand Kumar; Dubla, Andrea; Ducroux, Laurent; Dupieux, Pascal; Ehlers Iii, Raymond James; Elia, Domenico; Endress, Eric; Engel, Heiko; Epple, Eliane; Erazmus, Barbara Ewa; Erdemir, Irem; Erhardt, Filip; Espagnon, Bruno; Estienne, Magali Danielle; Esumi, Shinichi; Eum, Jongsik; Evans, David; Evdokimov, Sergey; Eyyubova, Gyulnara; Fabbietti, Laura; Fabris, Daniela; Faivre, Julien; Fantoni, Alessandra; Fasel, Markus; Feldkamp, Linus; Feliciello, Alessandro; Feofilov, Grigorii; Ferencei, Jozef; Fernandez Tellez, Arturo; Gonzalez Ferreiro, Elena; Ferretti, Alessandro; Festanti, Andrea; Feuillard, Victor Jose Gaston; Figiel, Jan; Araujo Silva Figueredo, Marcel; Filchagin, Sergey; Finogeev, Dmitry; Fionda, Fiorella; Fiore, Enrichetta Maria; Fleck, Martin Gabriel; Floris, Michele; Foertsch, Siegfried Valentin; Foka, Panagiota; Fokin, Sergey; Fragiacomo, Enrico; Francescon, Andrea; Frankenfeld, Ulrich Michael; Fronze, Gabriele Gaetano; Fuchs, Ulrich; Furget, Christophe; Furs, Artur; Fusco Girard, Mario; Gaardhoeje, Jens Joergen; Gagliardi, Martino; Gago Medina, Alberto Martin; Gallio, Mauro; Gangadharan, Dhevan Raja; Ganoti, Paraskevi; Gao, Chaosong; Garabatos Cuadrado, Jose; Garcia-Solis, Edmundo Javier; Gargiulo, Corrado; Gasik, Piotr Jan; Gauger, Erin Frances; Germain, Marie; Gheata, Andrei George; Gheata, Mihaela; Ghosh, Premomoy; Ghosh, Sanjay Kumar; Gianotti, Paola; Giubellino, Paolo; Giubilato, Piero; Gladysz-Dziadus, Ewa; Glassel, Peter; Gomez Coral, Diego Mauricio; Gomez Ramirez, Andres; Sanchez Gonzalez, Andres; Gonzalez, Victor; Gonzalez Zamora, Pedro; Gorbunov, Sergey; Gorlich, Lidia Maria; Gotovac, Sven; Grabski, Varlen; Grachov, Oleg Anatolievich; Graczykowski, Lukasz Kamil; Graham, Katie Leanne; Grelli, Alessandro; Grigoras, Alina Gabriela; Grigoras, Costin; Grigoryev, Vladislav; Grigoryan, Ara; Grigoryan, Smbat; Grynyov, Borys; Grion, Nevio; Gronefeld, Julius Maximilian; Grosse-Oetringhaus, Jan Fiete; Grosso, Raffaele; Guber, Fedor; Guernane, Rachid; Guerzoni, Barbara; Gulbrandsen, Kristjan Herlache; Gunji, Taku; Gupta, Anik; Gupta, Ramni; Haake, Rudiger; Haaland, Oystein Senneset; Hadjidakis, Cynthia Marie; Haiduc, Maria; Hamagaki, Hideki; Hamar, Gergoe; Hamon, Julien Charles; Harris, John William; Harton, Austin Vincent; Hatzifotiadou, Despina; Hayashi, Shinichi; Heckel, Stefan Thomas; Hellbar, Ernst; Helstrup, Haavard; Herghelegiu, Andrei Ionut; Herrera Corral, Gerardo Antonio; Hess, Benjamin Andreas; Hetland, Kristin Fanebust; Hillemanns, Hartmut; Hippolyte, Boris; Horak, David; Hosokawa, Ritsuya; Hristov, Peter Zahariev; Humanic, Thomas; Hussain, Nur; Hussain, Tahir; Hutter, Dirk; Hwang, Dae Sung; Ilkaev, Radiy; Inaba, Motoi; Incani, Elisa; Ippolitov, Mikhail; Irfan, Muhammad; Ivanov, Marian; Ivanov, Vladimir; Izucheev, Vladimir; Jacazio, Nicolo; Jacobs, Peter Martin; Jadhav, Manoj Bhanudas; Jadlovska, Slavka; Jadlovsky, Jan; Jahnke, Cristiane; Jakubowska, Monika Joanna; Jang, Haeng Jin; Janik, Malgorzata Anna; Pahula Hewage, Sandun; Jena, Chitrasen; Jena, Satyajit; Jimenez Bustamante, Raul Tonatiuh; Jones, Peter Graham; Jusko, Anton; Kalinak, Peter; Kalweit, Alexander Philipp; Kamin, Jason Adrian; Kang, Ju Hwan; Kaplin, Vladimir; Kar, Somnath; Karasu Uysal, Ayben; Karavichev, Oleg; Karavicheva, Tatiana; Karayan, Lilit; Karpechev, Evgeny; Kebschull, Udo Wolfgang; Keidel, Ralf; Keijdener, Darius Laurens; Keil, Markus; Khan, Mohammed Mohisin; Khan, Palash; Khan, Shuaib Ahmad; Khanzadeev, Alexei; Kharlov, Yury; Kileng, Bjarte; Kim, Do Won; Kim, Dong Jo; Kim, Daehyeok; Kim, Hyeonjoong; Kim, Jinsook; Kim, Minwoo; Kim, Se Yong; Kim, Taesoo; Kirsch, Stefan; Kisel, Ivan; Kiselev, Sergey; Kisiel, Adam Ryszard; Kiss, Gabor; Klay, Jennifer Lynn; Klein, Carsten; Klein, Jochen; Klein-Boesing, Christian; Klewin, Sebastian; Kluge, Alexander; Knichel, Michael Linus; Knospe, Anders Garritt; Kobdaj, Chinorat; Kofarago, Monika; Kollegger, Thorsten; Kolozhvari, Anatoly; Kondratev, Valerii; Kondratyeva, Natalia; Kondratyuk, Evgeny; Konevskikh, Artem; Kopcik, Michal; Kostarakis, Panagiotis; Kour, Mandeep; Kouzinopoulos, Charalampos; Kovalenko, Oleksandr; Kovalenko, Vladimir; Kowalski, Marek; Koyithatta Meethaleveedu, Greeshma; Kralik, Ivan; Kravcakova, Adela; Krivda, Marian; Krizek, Filip; Kryshen, Evgeny; Krzewicki, Mikolaj; Kubera, Andrew Michael; Kucera, Vit; Kuhn, Christian Claude; Kuijer, Paulus Gerardus; Kumar, Ajay; Kumar, Jitendra; Kumar, Lokesh; Kumar, Shyam; Kurashvili, Podist; Kurepin, Alexander; Kurepin, Alexey; Kuryakin, Alexey; Kweon, Min Jung; Kwon, Youngil; La Pointe, Sarah Louise; La Rocca, Paola; Ladron De Guevara, Pedro; Lagana Fernandes, Caio; Lakomov, Igor; Langoy, Rune; Lara Martinez, Camilo Ernesto; Lardeux, Antoine Xavier; Lattuca, Alessandra; Laudi, Elisa; Lea, Ramona; Leardini, Lucia; Lee, Graham Richard; Lee, Seongjoo; Lehas, Fatiha; Lemmon, Roy Crawford; Lenti, Vito; Leogrande, Emilia; Leon Monzon, Ildefonso; Leon Vargas, Hermes; Leoncino, Marco; Levai, Peter; Li, Shuang; Li, Xiaomei; Lien, Jorgen Andre; Lietava, Roman; Lindal, Svein; Lindenstruth, Volker; Lippmann, Christian; Lisa, Michael Annan; Ljunggren, Hans Martin; Lodato, Davide Francesco; Lonne, Per-Ivar; Loginov, Vitaly; Loizides, Constantinos; Lopez, Xavier Bernard; Lopez Torres, Ernesto; Lowe, Andrew John; Luettig, Philipp Johannes; Lunardon, Marcello; Luparello, Grazia; Lutz, Tyler Harrison; Maevskaya, Alla; Mager, Magnus; Mahajan, Sanjay; Mahmood, Sohail Musa; Maire, Antonin; Majka, Richard Daniel; Malaev, Mikhail; Maldonado Cervantes, Ivonne Alicia; Malinina, Liudmila; Mal'Kevich, Dmitry; Malzacher, Peter; Mamonov, Alexander; Manko, Vladislav; Manso, Franck; Manzari, Vito; Marchisone, Massimiliano; Mares, Jiri; Margagliotti, Giacomo Vito; Margotti, Anselmo; Margutti, Jacopo; Marin, Ana Maria; Markert, Christina; Marquard, Marco; Martin, Nicole Alice; Martin Blanco, Javier; Martinengo, Paolo; Martinez Hernandez, Mario Ivan; Martinez-Garcia, Gines; Martinez Pedreira, Miguel; Mas, Alexis Jean-Michel; Masciocchi, Silvia; Masera, Massimo; Masoni, Alberto; Mastroserio, Annalisa; Matyja, Adam Tomasz; Mayer, Christoph; Mazer, Joel Anthony; Mazzoni, Alessandra Maria; Mcdonald, Daniel; Meddi, Franco; Melikyan, Yuri; Menchaca-Rocha, Arturo Alejandro; Meninno, Elisa; Mercado-Perez, Jorge; Meres, Michal; Miake, Yasuo; Mieskolainen, Matti Mikael; Mikhaylov, Konstantin; Milano, Leonardo; Milosevic, Jovan; Mischke, Andre; Mishra, Aditya Nath; Miskowiec, Dariusz Czeslaw; Mitra, Jubin; Mitu, Ciprian Mihai; Mohammadi, Naghmeh; Mohanty, Bedangadas; Molnar, Levente; Montano Zetina, Luis Manuel; Montes Prado, Esther; Moreira De Godoy, Denise Aparecida; Perez Moreno, Luis Alberto; Moretto, Sandra; Morreale, Astrid; Morsch, Andreas; Muccifora, Valeria; Mudnic, Eugen; Muhlheim, Daniel Michael; Muhuri, Sanjib; Mukherjee, Maitreyee; Mulligan, James Declan; Gameiro Munhoz, Marcelo; Munzer, Robert Helmut; Murakami, Hikari; Murray, Sean; Musa, Luciano; Musinsky, Jan; Naik, Bharati; Nair, Rahul; Nandi, Basanta Kumar; Nania, Rosario; Nappi, Eugenio; Naru, Muhammad Umair; Ferreira Natal Da Luz, Pedro Hugo; Nattrass, Christine; Rosado Navarro, Sebastian; Nayak, Kishora; Nayak, Ranjit; Nayak, Tapan Kumar; Nazarenko, Sergey; Nedosekin, Alexander; Nellen, Lukas; Ng, Fabian; Nicassio, Maria; Niculescu, Mihai; Niedziela, Jeremi; Nielsen, Borge Svane; Nikolaev, Sergey; Nikulin, Sergey; Nikulin, Vladimir; Noferini, Francesco; Nomokonov, Petr; Nooren, Gerardus; Cabanillas Noris, Juan Carlos; Norman, Jaime; Nyanin, Alexander; Nystrand, Joakim Ingemar; Oeschler, Helmut Oskar; Oh, Saehanseul; Oh, Sun Kun; Ohlson, Alice Elisabeth; Okatan, Ali; Okubo, Tsubasa; Olah, Laszlo; Oleniacz, Janusz; Oliveira Da Silva, Antonio Carlos; Oliver, Michael Henry; Onderwaater, Jacobus; Oppedisano, Chiara; Orava, Risto; Oravec, Matej; Ortiz Velasquez, Antonio; Oskarsson, Anders Nils Erik; Otwinowski, Jacek Tomasz; Oyama, Ken; Ozdemir, Mahmut; Pachmayer, Yvonne Chiara; Pagano, Davide; Pagano, Paola; Paic, Guy; Pal, Susanta Kumar; Pan, Jinjin; Pandey, Ashutosh Kumar; Papikyan, Vardanush; Pappalardo, Giuseppe; Pareek, Pooja; Park, Woojin; Parmar, Sonia; Passfeld, Annika; Paticchio, Vincenzo; Patra, Rajendra Nath; Paul, Biswarup; Pei, Hua; Peitzmann, Thomas; Pereira Da Costa, Hugo Denis Antonio; Peresunko, Dmitry Yurevich; Perez Lara, Carlos Eugenio; Perez Lezama, Edgar; Peskov, Vladimir; Pestov, Yury; Petracek, Vojtech; Petrov, Viacheslav; Petrovici, Mihai; Petta, Catia; Piano, Stefano; Pikna, Miroslav; Pillot, Philippe; Ozelin De Lima Pimentel, Lais; Pinazza, Ombretta; Pinsky, Lawrence; Piyarathna, Danthasinghe; Ploskon, Mateusz Andrzej; Planinic, Mirko; Pluta, Jan Marian; Pochybova, Sona; Podesta Lerma, Pedro Luis Manuel; Poghosyan, Martin; Polishchuk, Boris; Poljak, Nikola; Poonsawat, Wanchaloem; Pop, Amalia; Porteboeuf, Sarah Julie; Porter, R Jefferson; Pospisil, Jan; Prasad, Sidharth Kumar; Preghenella, Roberto; Prino, Francesco; Pruneau, Claude Andre; Pshenichnov, Igor; Puccio, Maximiliano; Puddu, Giovanna; Pujahari, Prabhat Ranjan; Punin, Valery; Putschke, Jorn Henning; Qvigstad, Henrik; Rachevski, Alexandre; Raha, Sibaji; Rajput, Sonia; Rak, Jan; Rakotozafindrabe, Andry Malala; Ramello, Luciano; Rami, Fouad; Raniwala, Rashmi; Raniwala, Sudhir; Rasanen, Sami Sakari; Rascanu, Bogdan Theodor; Rathee, Deepika; Read, Kenneth Francis; Redlich, Krzysztof; Reed, Rosi Jan; Rehman, Attiq Ur; Reichelt, Patrick Simon; Reidt, Felix; Ren, Xiaowen; Renfordt, Rainer Arno Ernst; Reolon, Anna Rita; Reshetin, Andrey; Reygers, Klaus Johannes; Riabov, Viktor; Ricci, Renato Angelo; Richert, Tuva Ora Herenui; Richter, Matthias Rudolph; Riedler, Petra; Riegler, Werner; Riggi, Francesco; Ristea, Catalin-Lucian; Rocco, Elena; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, Mario; Rodriguez Manso, Alis; Roeed, Ketil; Rogochaya, Elena; Rohr, David Michael; Roehrich, Dieter; Ronchetti, Federico; Ronflette, Lucile; Rosnet, Philippe; Rossi, Andrea; Roukoutakis, Filimon; Roy, Ankhi; Roy, Christelle Sophie; Roy, Pradip Kumar; Rubio Montero, Antonio Juan; Rui, Rinaldo; Russo, Riccardo; Ryabinkin, Evgeny; Ryabov, Yury; Rybicki, Andrzej; Saarinen, Sampo; Sadhu, Samrangy; Sadovskiy, Sergey; Safarik, Karel; Sahlmuller, Baldo; Sahoo, Pragati; Sahoo, Raghunath; Sahoo, Sarita; Sahu, Pradip Kumar; Saini, Jogender; Sakai, Shingo; Saleh, Mohammad Ahmad; Salzwedel, Jai Samuel Nielsen; Sambyal, Sanjeev Singh; Samsonov, Vladimir; Sandor, Ladislav; Sandoval, Andres; Sano, Masato; Sarkar, Debojit; Sarkar, Nachiketa; Sarma, Pranjal; Scapparone, Eugenio; Scarlassara, Fernando; Schiaua, Claudiu Cornel; Schicker, Rainer Martin; Schmidt, Christian Joachim; Schmidt, Hans Rudolf; Schuchmann, Simone; Schukraft, Jurgen; Schulc, Martin; Schutz, Yves Roland; Schwarz, Kilian Eberhard; Schweda, Kai Oliver; Scioli, Gilda; Scomparin, Enrico; Scott, Rebecca Michelle; Sefcik, Michal; Seger, Janet Elizabeth; Sekiguchi, Yuko; Sekihata, Daiki; Selyuzhenkov, Ilya; Senosi, Kgotlaesele; Senyukov, Serhiy; Serradilla Rodriguez, Eulogio; Sevcenco, Adrian; Shabanov, Arseniy; Shabetai, Alexandre; Shadura, Oksana; Shahoyan, Ruben; Shahzad, Muhammed Ikram; Shangaraev, Artem; Sharma, Ankita; Sharma, Mona; Sharma, Monika; Sharma, Natasha; Sheikh, Ashik Ikbal; Shigaki, Kenta; Shou, Qiye; Shtejer Diaz, Katherin; Sibiryak, Yury; Siddhanta, Sabyasachi; Sielewicz, Krzysztof Marek; Siemiarczuk, Teodor; Silvermyr, David Olle Rickard; Silvestre, Catherine Micaela; Simatovic, Goran; Simonetti, Giuseppe; Singaraju, Rama Narayana; Singh, Ranbir; Singha, Subhash; Singhal, Vikas; Sinha, Bikash; Sarkar - Sinha, Tinku; Sitar, Branislav; Sitta, Mario; Skaali, Bernhard; Slupecki, Maciej; Smirnov, Nikolai; Snellings, Raimond; Snellman, Tomas Wilhelm; Song, Jihye; Song, Myunggeun; Song, Zixuan; Soramel, Francesca; Sorensen, Soren Pontoppidan; Derradi De Souza, Rafael; Sozzi, Federica; Spacek, Michal; Spiriti, Eleuterio; Sputowska, Iwona Anna; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, Martha; Stachel, Johanna; Stan, Ionel; Stankus, Paul; Stenlund, Evert Anders; Steyn, Gideon Francois; Stiller, Johannes Hendrik; Stocco, Diego; Strmen, Peter; Alarcon Do Passo Suaide, Alexandre; Sugitate, Toru; Suire, Christophe Pierre; Suleymanov, Mais Kazim Oglu; Suljic, Miljenko; Sultanov, Rishat; Sumbera, Michal; Sumowidagdo, Suharyo; Szabo, Alexander; Szanto De Toledo, Alejandro; Szarka, Imrich; Szczepankiewicz, Adam; Szymanski, Maciej Pawel; Tabassam, Uzma; Takahashi, Jun; Tambave, Ganesh Jagannath; Tanaka, Naoto; Tarhini, Mohamad; Tariq, Mohammad; Tarzila, Madalina-Gabriela; Tauro, Arturo; Tejeda Munoz, Guillermo; Telesca, Adriana; Terasaki, Kohei; Terrevoli, Cristina; Teyssier, Boris; Thaeder, Jochen Mathias; Thakur, Dhananjaya; Thomas, Deepa; Tieulent, Raphael Noel; Timmins, Anthony Robert; Toia, Alberica; Trogolo, Stefano; Trombetta, Giuseppe; Trubnikov, Victor; Trzaska, Wladyslaw Henryk; Tsuji, Tomoya; Tumkin, Alexandr; Turrisi, Rosario; Tveter, Trine Spedstad; Ullaland, Kjetil; Uras, Antonio; Usai, Gianluca; Utrobicic, Antonija; Vala, Martin; Valencia Palomo, Lizardo; Vallero, Sara; Van Der Maarel, Jasper; Van Hoorne, Jacobus Willem; Van Leeuwen, Marco; Vanat, Tomas; Vande Vyvre, Pierre; Varga, Dezso; Diozcora Vargas Trevino, Aurora; Vargyas, Marton; Varma, Raghava; Vasileiou, Maria; Vasiliev, Andrey; Vauthier, Astrid; Vechernin, Vladimir; Veen, Annelies Marianne; Veldhoen, Misha; Velure, Arild; Vercellin, Ermanno; Vergara Limon, Sergio; Vernet, Renaud; Verweij, Marta; Vickovic, Linda; Viesti, Giuseppe; Viinikainen, Jussi Samuli; Vilakazi, Zabulon; Villalobos Baillie, Orlando; Villatoro Tello, Abraham; Vinogradov, Alexander; Vinogradov, Leonid; Vinogradov, Yury; Virgili, Tiziano; Vislavicius, Vytautas; Viyogi, Yogendra; Vodopyanov, Alexander; Volkl, Martin Andreas; Voloshin, Kirill; Voloshin, Sergey; Volpe, Giacomo; Von Haller, Barthelemy; Vorobyev, Ivan; Vranic, Danilo; Vrlakova, Janka; Vulpescu, Bogdan; Wagner, Boris; Wagner, Jan; Wang, Hongkai; Wang, Mengliang; Watanabe, Daisuke; Watanabe, Yosuke; Weber, Michael; Weber, Steffen Georg; Weiser, Dennis Franz; Wessels, Johannes Peter; Westerhoff, Uwe; Whitehead, Andile Mothegi; Wiechula, Jens; Wikne, Jon; Wilk, Grzegorz Andrzej; Wilkinson, Jeremy John; Williams, Crispin; Windelband, Bernd Stefan; Winn, Michael Andreas; Yang, Hongyan; Yang, Ping; Yano, Satoshi; Yasin, Zafar; Yin, Zhongbao; Yokoyama, Hiroki; Yoo, In-Kwon; Yoon, Jin Hee; Yurchenko, Volodymyr; Yushmanov, Igor; Zaborowska, Anna; Zaccolo, Valentina; Zaman, Ali; Zampolli, Chiara; Correia Zanoli, Henrique Jose; Zaporozhets, Sergey; Zardoshti, Nima; Zarochentsev, Andrey; Zavada, Petr; Zavyalov, Nikolay; Zbroszczyk, Hanna Paulina; Zgura, Sorin Ion; Zhalov, Mikhail; Zhang, Haitao; Zhang, Xiaoming; Zhang, Yonghong; Chunhui, Zhang; Zhang, Zuman; Zhao, Chengxin; Zhigareva, Natalia; Zhou, Daicui; Zhou, You; Zhou, Zhuo; Zhu, Hongsheng; Zhu, Jianhui; Zichichi, Antonino; Zimmermann, Alice; Zimmermann, Markus Bernhard; Zinovjev, Gennady; Zyzak, Maksym

    2016-05-25

    We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian PID approach for charged pions, kaons and protons in the central barrel of ALICE is studied. PID is performed via measurements of specific energy loss (dE/dx) and time-of-flight. PID efficiencies and misidentification probabilities are extracted and compared with Monte Carlo simulations using high purity samples of identified particles in the decay channels ${\\rm K}_{\\rm S}^{\\rm 0}\\rightarrow \\pi^+\\pi^-$, $\\phi\\rightarrow {\\rm K}^-{\\rm K}^+$ and $\\Lambda\\rightarrow{\\rm p}\\pi^-$ in p–Pb collisions at $\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}}= 5.02$TeV. In order to thoroughly assess the validity of the Bayesian approach, this methodology was used to obtain corrected $p_{\\rm T}$ spectra of pions, kaons, protons, and D$^0$ mesons in pp coll...

  3. Bayesian posterior distributions without Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R; Chu, Haitao; Greenland, Sander; Hamra, Ghassan; Richardson, David B

    2012-03-01

    Bayesian posterior parameter distributions are often simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are not always necessary and do not help the uninitiated understand Bayesian inference. As a bridge to understanding Bayesian inference, the authors illustrate a transparent rejection sampling method. In example 1, they illustrate rejection sampling using 36 cases and 198 controls from a case-control study (1976-1983) assessing the relation between residential exposure to magnetic fields and the development of childhood cancer. Results from rejection sampling (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% posterior interval (PI): 0.57, 5.00) were similar to MCMC results (OR = 1.69, 95% PI: 0.58, 4.95) and approximations from data-augmentation priors (OR = 1.74, 95% PI: 0.60, 5.06). In example 2, the authors apply rejection sampling to a cohort study of 315 human immunodeficiency virus seroconverters (1984-1998) to assess the relation between viral load after infection and 5-year incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, adjusting for (continuous) age at seroconversion and race. In this more complex example, rejection sampling required a notably longer run time than MCMC sampling but remained feasible and again yielded similar results. The transparency of the proposed approach comes at a price of being less broadly applicable than MCMC.

  4. Bayesian Posterior Distributions Without Markov Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Chu, Haitao; Greenland, Sander; Hamra, Ghassan; Richardson, David B.

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian posterior parameter distributions are often simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are not always necessary and do not help the uninitiated understand Bayesian inference. As a bridge to understanding Bayesian inference, the authors illustrate a transparent rejection sampling method. In example 1, they illustrate rejection sampling using 36 cases and 198 controls from a case-control study (1976–1983) assessing the relation between residential exposure to magnetic fields and the development of childhood cancer. Results from rejection sampling (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% posterior interval (PI): 0.57, 5.00) were similar to MCMC results (OR = 1.69, 95% PI: 0.58, 4.95) and approximations from data-augmentation priors (OR = 1.74, 95% PI: 0.60, 5.06). In example 2, the authors apply rejection sampling to a cohort study of 315 human immunodeficiency virus seroconverters (1984–1998) to assess the relation between viral load after infection and 5-year incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, adjusting for (continuous) age at seroconversion and race. In this more complex example, rejection sampling required a notably longer run time than MCMC sampling but remained feasible and again yielded similar results. The transparency of the proposed approach comes at a price of being less broadly applicable than MCMC. PMID:22306565

  5. Jig Aligns Shadow Mask On CCD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matus, Carlos V.

    1989-01-01

    Alignment viewed through microscope. Alignment jig positions shadow mask on charge-coupled device (CCD) so metal film deposited on it precisely. Allows CCD package to be inserted and removed without disturbing alignment of mask. Holds CCD packages securely and isolates it electrostatically while providing electrical contact to each of its pins. When alignment jig assembled with CCD, used to move mask under micrometer control.

  6. Alignment of the VISA Undulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruland, Robert E.

    2000-01-01

    As part of the R and D program towards a fourth generation light source, a Self-Amplified Spontaneous Emission (SASE) demonstration is being prepared. The Visible-Infrared SASE Amplifier (VISA) undulator is being installed at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The VISA undulator is an in-vacuum, 4-meter long, 1.8 cm period, pure-permanent magnet device, with a novel, strong focusing, permanent magnet FODO array included within the fixed, 6 mm undulator gap. The undulator is constructed of 99 cm long segments. To attain maximum SASE gain requires establishing overlap of electron and photon beams to within 50 pm rms. This imposes challenging tolerances on mechanical fabrication and magnetic field quality, and necessitates use of laser straightness interferometry for calibration and alignment of the magnetic axes of the undulator segments. This paper describes the magnetic centerline determination, and the fiducialization and alignment processes, which were performed to meet the tolerance goal

  7. Shuttle onboard IMU alignment methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, D. M.

    1976-01-01

    The current approach to the shuttle IMU alignment is based solely on the Apollo Deterministic Method. This method is simple, fast, reliable and provides an accurate estimate for the present cluster to mean of 1,950 transformation matrix. If four or more star sightings are available, the application of least squares analysis can be utilized. The least squares method offers the next level of sophistication to the IMU alignment solution. The least squares method studied shows that a more accurate estimate for the misalignment angles is computed, and the IMU drift rates are a free by-product of the analysis. Core storage requirements are considerably more; estimated 20 to 30 times the core required for the Apollo Deterministic Method. The least squares method offers an intermediate solution utilizing as much data that is available without a complete statistical analysis as in Kalman filtering.

  8. Assessing strategic alignment to improve IT effectiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smits, M.T.; Fairchild, A.M.; Ribbers, P.M.A.; Milis, K.; van Geel, E.; Markus, M.L.; Hampe, J.F.; Gricar, J.; Pucihar, A.; Lenart, G.

    2009-01-01

    A long running challenge in both large and small organizations has been aligning information systems services with business needs. Good alignment is assumed to lead to good business results, but there is a need for good instruments to assess strategic alignment and business success in practice.

  9. Physician-Hospital Alignment in Orthopedic Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bushnell, Brandon D

    2015-09-01

    The concept of "alignment" between physicians and hospitals is a popular buzzword in the age of health care reform. Despite their often tumultuous histories, physicians and hospitals find themselves under increasing pressures to work together toward common goals. However, effective alignment is more than just simple cooperation between parties. The process of achieving alignment does not have simple, universal steps. Alignment will differ based on individual situational factors and the type of specialty involved. Ultimately, however, there are principles that underlie the concept of alignment and should be a part of any physician-hospital alignment efforts. In orthopedic surgery, alignment involves the clinical, administrative, financial, and even personal aspects of a surgeon's practice. It must be based on the principles of financial interest, clinical authority, administrative participation, transparency, focus on the patient, and mutual necessity. Alignment can take on various forms as well, with popular models consisting of shared governance and comanagement, gainsharing, bundled payments, accountable care organizations, and other methods. As regulatory and financial pressures continue to motivate physicians and hospitals to develop alignment relationships, new and innovative methods of alignment will also appear. Existing models will mature and evolve, with individual variability based on local factors. However, certain trends seem to be appearing as time progresses and alignment relationships deepen, including regional and national collaboration, population management, and changes in the legal system. This article explores the history, principles, and specific methods of physician-hospital alignment and its critical importance for the future of health care delivery. Copyright 2015, SLACK Incorporated.

  10. MUSTANG: a multiple structural alignment algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konagurthu, Arun S; Whisstock, James C; Stuckey, Peter J; Lesk, Arthur M

    2006-08-15

    Multiple structural alignment is a fundamental problem in structural genomics. In this article, we define a reliable and robust algorithm, MUSTANG (MUltiple STructural AligNment AlGorithm), for the alignment of multiple protein structures. Given a set of protein structures, the program constructs a multiple alignment using the spatial information of the C(alpha) atoms in the set. Broadly based on the progressive pairwise heuristic, this algorithm gains accuracy through novel and effective refinement phases. MUSTANG reports the multiple sequence alignment and the corresponding superposition of structures. Alignments generated by MUSTANG are compared with several handcurated alignments in the literature as well as with the benchmark alignments of 1033 alignment families from the HOMSTRAD database. The performance of MUSTANG was compared with DALI at a pairwise level, and with other multiple structural alignment tools such as POSA, CE-MC, MALECON, and MultiProt. MUSTANG performs comparably to popular pairwise and multiple structural alignment tools for closely related proteins, and performs more reliably than other multiple structural alignment methods on hard data sets containing distantly related proteins or proteins that show conformational changes.

  11. An analysis of sequence alignment: heuristic algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucak, I Ö; Uslan, V

    2010-01-01

    Sequence alignment becomes challenging with an increase in size and number of sequences. Finding optimal or near optimal solutions for sequence alignment is one of the most important operations in bioinformatics. This study aims to survey heuristics applied for the sequence alignment problem summarized in a time line.

  12. Semiautomated improvement of RNA alignments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ebbe Sloth; Lind-Thomsen, Allan; Knudsen, Bjarne

    2007-01-01

    : the mir-399 RNA, vertebrate telomase RNA (vert-TR), bacterial transfer-messenger RNA (tmRNA), and the signal recognition particle (SRP) RNA. The general use of the method is illustrated by the ability to accommodate pseudoknots and handle even large and divergent RNA families. The open architecture...... of the SARSE editor makes it a flexible tool to improve all RNA alignments with relatively little human intervention. Online documentation and software are available at (http://sarse.ku.dk)....

  13. Alignment in double capture processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moretto-Capelle, P.; Benhenni, M.; Bordenave-Montesquieu, A.; Benoit-Cattin, P.; Gleizes, A. (IRSAMC, URA CNRS 770, Univ. Paul Sabatier, 118 rte de Narbonne, 31062 Toulouse Cedex (France))

    1993-06-05

    The electron spectra emitted when a double capture occurs in N[sup 7+]+He and Ne[sup 8+]+He systems at 10 qkeV collisional energy, allow us to determine the angular distributions of the 3[ell]3[ell] [prime] lines through a special spectra fitting procedure which includes interferences between neighbouring states. It is found that the doubly excited states populated in double capture processes are generally aligned.

  14. International Business And Aligning CSR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Miret

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The labor relationship between the employer and the workers is evaluated and directed by the labor rights which is a group of legal rights that are derived from human rights. Labor rights are more precisely relative to CSR as CSR are based on perspective and point of view of a given corporation. In this perspective implementing the workers and labor rights becomes more difficult compared to the implementation of the CSR. If an international corporation can be able to align CSR with the labor laws the friction between the employees and the corporation and the employee is likely to reduce. There is need to explore whether multinational corporations can be able to align CSR with the labor rights and employee initiatives global market. In this case the analysis focuses on China Brazil and India as the reference countries with cross-sectional secondary data obtained from a survey of the existing sources on the internet. The pertinent question is whether multinational corporations be successful while aligning CSR Corporate Social Responsibility with labor rights and employee initiatives in a competitive global market based on that cross-sectional data. The findings reveal that the uphold of labor rights largely determines morale of the employees and the will to participate in the growth and development of a given business both locally and international. Notably the continued change of CSR has resulted in the replacement of management and government dominated trade unions with more democratic unions of workers that pay attention to the initiatives of the workers. The combination of the internal code of conduct with the workers association labor associations and movements is one of the credible routes that show CSR can be aligned with labor rights.

  15. An SXF Extension for Alignment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fischer, W. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Pilat, F. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

    1998-11-13

    The accelerator description in the standard exchange format SXF is now used for RHIC and the LHC. Parsers exist to a growing number of simulation programs. SXF, however, is a fiat ordered list of elements and does not support the simultaneous misalignment of adjacent elements. The introduction of an element hierarchy is needed to align several elements by the same amount. This is of interest for two reasons: First, magnets are often modeled by more than one element and all these elements should be misaligned by the same amount. For example, a magnet model may consist of a body and two end kicks; and the body itself may be modeled by several kicks. Second, sometimes there are several magnets assembled in one cryostat. It is then desirable to misalign the whole cryostat while the individual magnets within are misaligned relative to the cryostat. The proper description of alignment errors is of great importance to the US-LHC col­laboration in which the US will deliver assembled cryostat-s of interaction region magnets to CERN. In the design phase an estimate of tolerable alignment errors is needed. Once magnets are assembled in a cryostat, the best position of the cryostat must be found in order to minimize the harmful effects of field errors. We developed a description that allows the simultaneous misalignment of adjacent magnets. The description is closely related to the SXF format. A filter program can be used to process and merge the misalignment information into a flat SXF file.

  16. Being Bayesian in a quantum world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuchs, C.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: To be a Bayesian about probability theory is to accept that probabilities represent subjective degrees of belief and nothing more. This is in distinction to the idea that probabilities represent long-term frequencies or objective propensities. But, how can a subjective account of probabilities coexist with the existence of quantum mechanics? To accept quantum mechanics is to accept the calculational apparatus of quantum states and the Born rule for determining probabilities in a quantum measurement. If there ever were a place for probabilities to be objective, it ought to be here. This raises the question of whether Bayesianism and quantum mechanics are compatible at all. For the Bayesian, it only suggests that we should rethink what quantum mechanics is about. Is it 'law of nature' or really more 'law of thought'? From transistors to lasers, the evidence is in that we live in a quantum world. One could infer from this that all the elements in the quantum formalism necessarily mirror nature itself: wave functions are so successful as calculational tools precisely because they represent elements of reality. A more Bayesian-like perspective is that if wave functions generate probabilities, then they too must be Bayesian degrees of belief, with all that such a radical idea entails. In particular, quantum probabilities have no firmer hold on reality than the word 'belief' in 'degrees of belief' already indicates. From this perspective, the only sense in which the quantum formalism mirrors nature is through the constraints it places on gambling agents who would like to better navigate through world. One might think that this is thin information, but it is not insubstantial. To the extent that an agent should use quantum mechanics for his uncertainty accounting rather than some other theory tells us something about the world itself - i.e., the world independent of the agent and his particular beliefs at any moment. In this talk, I will try to shore up these

  17. An introduction to using Bayesian linear regression with clinical data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, Scott A; Larson, Michael J

    2017-11-01

    Statistical training psychology focuses on frequentist methods. Bayesian methods are an alternative to standard frequentist methods. This article provides researchers with an introduction to fundamental ideas in Bayesian modeling. We use data from an electroencephalogram (EEG) and anxiety study to illustrate Bayesian models. Specifically, the models examine the relationship between error-related negativity (ERN), a particular event-related potential, and trait anxiety. Methodological topics covered include: how to set up a regression model in a Bayesian framework, specifying priors, examining convergence of the model, visualizing and interpreting posterior distributions, interval estimates, expected and predicted values, and model comparison tools. We also discuss situations where Bayesian methods can outperform frequentist methods as well has how to specify more complicated regression models. Finally, we conclude with recommendations about reporting guidelines for those using Bayesian methods in their own research. We provide data and R code for replicating our analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Bayesian non- and semi-parametric methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rossi, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book reviews and develops Bayesian non-parametric and semi-parametric methods for applications in microeconometrics and quantitative marketing. Most econometric models used in microeconomics and marketing applications involve arbitrary distributional assumptions. As more data becomes available, a natural desire to provide methods that relax these assumptions arises. Peter Rossi advocates a Bayesian approach in which specific distributional assumptions are replaced with more flexible distributions based on mixtures of normals. The Bayesian approach can use either a large but fixed number

  19. Bayesian inference with information content model check for Langevin equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krog, Jens F. C.; Lomholt, Michael Andersen

    2017-01-01

    The Bayesian data analysis framework has been proven to be a systematic and effective method of parameter inference and model selection for stochastic processes. In this work we introduce an information content model check which may serve as a goodness-of-fit, like the chi-square procedure......, to complement conventional Bayesian analysis. We demonstrate this extended Bayesian framework on a system of Langevin equations, where coordinate dependent mobilities and measurement noise hinder the normal mean squared displacement approach....

  20. Towards Bayesian Inference of the Fast-Ion Distribution Function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stagner, L.; Heidbrink, W.W.; Salewski, Mirko

    2012-01-01

    sensitivity of the measurements are incorporated into Bayesian likelihood probabilities, while prior probabilities enforce physical constraints. As an initial step, this poster uses Bayesian statistics to infer the DIII-D electron density profile from multiple diagnostic measurements. Likelihood functions....... However, when theory and experiment disagree (for one or more diagnostics), it is unclear how to proceed. Bayesian statistics provides a framework to infer the DF, quantify errors, and reconcile discrepant diagnostic measurements. Diagnostic errors and ``weight functions" that describe the phase space...

  1. Accelerator and transport line survey and alignment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruland, R.E.

    1991-10-01

    This paper summarizes the survey and alignment processes of accelerators and transport lines and discusses the propagation of errors associated with these processes. The major geodetic principles governing the survey and alignment measurement space are introduced and their relationship to a lattice coordinate system shown. The paper continues with a broad overview about the activities involved in the step sequence from initial absolute alignment to final smoothing. Emphasis is given to the relative alignment of components, in particular to the importance of incorporating methods to remove residual systematic effects in surveying and alignment operations. Various approaches to smoothing used at major laboratories are discussed. 47 refs., 19 figs., 1 tab

  2. Aligning molecules with intense nonresonant laser fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, J.J.; Safvan, C.P.; Sakai, H.

    1999-01-01

    Molecules in a seeded supersonic beam are aligned by the interaction between an intense nonresonant linearly polarized laser field and the molecular polarizability. We demonstrate the general applicability of the scheme by aligning I2, ICl, CS2, CH3I, and C6H5I molecules. The alignment is probed...... by mass selective two dimensional imaging of the photofragment ions produced by femtosecond laser pulses. Calculations on the degree of alignment of I2 are in good agreement with the experiments. We discuss some future applications of laser aligned molecules....

  3. Bayesian Test of Significance for Conditional Independence: The Multinomial Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo de Morais Andrade

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Conditional independence tests have received special attention lately in machine learning and computational intelligence related literature as an important indicator of the relationship among the variables used by their models. In the field of probabilistic graphical models, which includes Bayesian network models, conditional independence tests are especially important for the task of learning the probabilistic graphical model structure from data. In this paper, we propose the full Bayesian significance test for tests of conditional independence for discrete datasets. The full Bayesian significance test is a powerful Bayesian test for precise hypothesis, as an alternative to the frequentist’s significance tests (characterized by the calculation of the p-value.

  4. Bayesian missing data problems EM, data augmentation and noniterative computation

    CERN Document Server

    Tan, Ming T; Ng, Kai Wang

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian Missing Data Problems: EM, Data Augmentation and Noniterative Computation presents solutions to missing data problems through explicit or noniterative sampling calculation of Bayesian posteriors. The methods are based on the inverse Bayes formulae discovered by one of the author in 1995. Applying the Bayesian approach to important real-world problems, the authors focus on exact numerical solutions, a conditional sampling approach via data augmentation, and a noniterative sampling approach via EM-type algorithms. After introducing the missing data problems, Bayesian approach, and poste

  5. Doing bayesian data analysis a tutorial with R and BUGS

    CERN Document Server

    Kruschke, John K

    2011-01-01

    There is an explosion of interest in Bayesian statistics, primarily because recently created computational methods have finally made Bayesian analysis obtainable to a wide audience. Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, A Tutorial Introduction with R and BUGS provides an accessible approach to Bayesian data analysis, as material is explained clearly with concrete examples. The book begins with the basics, including essential concepts of probability and random sampling, and gradually progresses to advanced hierarchical modeling methods for realistic data. The text delivers comprehensive coverage of all

  6. Kinematic and Attribute Fusion Using a Bayesian Belief Network Framework

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Krieg, Mark L

    2006-01-01

    .... However, attribute information has the potential to not only provide identity and class information, but it may also improve data association and kinematic tracking performance, Bayesian Belief...

  7. Alignment method for solar collector arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driver, Jr., Richard B

    2012-10-23

    The present invention is directed to an improved method for establishing camera fixture location for aligning mirrors on a solar collector array (SCA) comprising multiple mirror modules. The method aligns the mirrors on a module by comparing the location of the receiver image in photographs with the predicted theoretical receiver image location. To accurately align an entire SCA, a common reference is used for all of the individual module images within the SCA. The improved method can use relative pixel location information in digital photographs along with alignment fixture inclinometer data to calculate relative locations of the fixture between modules. The absolute locations are determined by minimizing alignment asymmetry for the SCA. The method inherently aligns all of the mirrors in an SCA to the receiver, even with receiver position and module-to-module alignment errors.

  8. Spatially explicit Schistosoma infection risk in eastern Africa using Bayesian geostatistical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie

    2013-01-01

    surveys on different age-groups and to acquire separate estimates for individuals aged ≤20 years and entire communities. Prevalence estimates were combined with population statistics to obtain country-specific numbers of Schistosoma infections. We estimate that 122 million individuals in eastern Africa...... Africa. Bayesian geostatistical models based on climatic and other environmental data were used to account for potential spatial clustering in spatially structured exposures. Geostatistical variable selection was employed to reduce the set of covariates. Alignment factors were implemented to combine...... are currently infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. Country-specific population-adjusted prevalence estimates range between 12.9% (Uganda) and 34.5% (Mozambique) for S. mansoni and between 11.9% (Djibouti) and 40.9% (Mozambique) for S. haematobium. Our models revealed...

  9. Python Environment for Bayesian Learning: Inferring the Structure of Bayesian Networks from Knowledge and Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Abhik; Woolf, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Summary In this paper, we introduce pebl, a Python library and application for learning Bayesian network structure from data and prior knowledge that provides features unmatched by alternative software packages: the ability to use interventional data, flexible specification of structural priors, modeling with hidden variables and exploitation of parallel processing. PMID:20161541

  10. Bayesian depth estimation from monocular natural images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Che-Chun; Cormack, Lawrence K; Bovik, Alan C

    2017-05-01

    Estimating an accurate and naturalistic dense depth map from a single monocular photographic image is a difficult problem. Nevertheless, human observers have little difficulty understanding the depth structure implied by photographs. Two-dimensional (2D) images of the real-world environment contain significant statistical information regarding the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the world that the vision system likely exploits to compute perceived depth, monocularly as well as binocularly. Toward understanding how this might be accomplished, we propose a Bayesian model of monocular depth computation that recovers detailed 3D scene structures by extracting reliable, robust, depth-sensitive statistical features from single natural images. These features are derived using well-accepted univariate natural scene statistics (NSS) models and recent bivariate/correlation NSS models that describe the relationships between 2D photographic images and their associated depth maps. This is accomplished by building a dictionary of canonical local depth patterns from which NSS features are extracted as prior information. The dictionary is used to create a multivariate Gaussian mixture (MGM) likelihood model that associates local image features with depth patterns. A simple Bayesian predictor is then used to form spatial depth estimates. The depth results produced by the model, despite its simplicity, correlate well with ground-truth depths measured by a current-generation terrestrial light detection and ranging (LIDAR) scanner. Such a strong form of statistical depth information could be used by the visual system when creating overall estimated depth maps incorporating stereopsis, accommodation, and other conditions. Indeed, even in isolation, the Bayesian predictor delivers depth estimates that are competitive with state-of-the-art "computer vision" methods that utilize highly engineered image features and sophisticated machine learning algorithms.

  11. Joint Bayesian analysis of forensic mixtures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascali, Vince L; Merigioli, Sara

    2012-12-01

    Evaluation of series of PCR experiments referring to the same evidence is not infrequent in a forensic casework. This situation is met when 'series of results in mixture' (EPGs produced by reiterating PCR experiments over the same DNA mixture extract) have to be interpreted or when 'potentially related traces' (mixtures that can have contributors in common) require a combined interpretation. In these cases, there can be uncertainty on the genotype assignment, since: (a) more than one genotype combination fall under the same peak profile; (b) PCR preferential amplification alters pre-PCR allelic proportions; (c) other, more unpredictable technical problems (dropouts/dropins, etc.) take place. The uncertainty in the genotype assignment is in most cases addressed by empirical methods (selection of just one particular profile; extraction of consensual or composite profiles) that disregard part of the evidence. Genotype assignment should conversely take advantage from a joint Bayesian analysis (JBA) of all STRs peak areas generated at each experiment. This is the typical case of Bayesian analysis in which adoption of object-oriented Bayesian networks (OOBNs) could be highly helpful. Starting from experimentally designed mixtures, we created typical examples of 'series of results in mixture' of 'potentially related traces'. JBA was some administered to the whole peak area evidence, by specifically tailored OOBNs models, which enabled genotype assignment reflecting all the available evidence. Examples of a residual ambiguity in the genotype assignment came to light at assumed genotypes with partially overlapping alleles (for example: AB+AC→ABC). In the 'series of results in mixture', this uncertainty was in part refractory to the joint evaluation. Ambiguity was conversely dissipated at the 'potentially related' trace example, where the ABC allelic scheme at the first trace was interpreted together with other unambiguous combinations (ABCD; AB) at the related trace. We

  12. Spatiotemporal Bayesian networks for malaria prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddawy, Peter; Hasan, A H M Imrul; Kasantikul, Rangwan; Lawpoolsri, Saranath; Sa-Angchai, Patiwat; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit; Singhasivanon, Pratap

    2018-01-01

    Targeted intervention and resource allocation are essential for effective malaria control, particularly in remote areas, with predictive models providing important information for decision making. While a diversity of modeling technique have been used to create predictive models of malaria, no work has made use of Bayesian networks. Bayes nets are attractive due to their ability to represent uncertainty, model time lagged and nonlinear relations, and provide explanations. This paper explores the use of Bayesian networks to model malaria, demonstrating the approach by creating village level models with weekly temporal resolution for Tha Song Yang district in northern Thailand. The networks are learned using data on cases and environmental covariates. Three types of networks are explored: networks for numeric prediction, networks for outbreak prediction, and networks that incorporate spatial autocorrelation. Evaluation of the numeric prediction network shows that the Bayes net has prediction accuracy in terms of mean absolute error of about 1.4 cases for 1 week prediction and 1.7 cases for 6 week prediction. The network for outbreak prediction has an ROC AUC above 0.9 for all prediction horizons. Comparison of prediction accuracy of both Bayes nets against several traditional modeling approaches shows the Bayes nets to outperform the other models for longer time horizon prediction of high incidence transmission. To model spread of malaria over space, we elaborate the models with links between the village networks. This results in some very large models which would be far too laborious to build by hand. So we represent the models as collections of probability logic rules and automatically generate the networks. Evaluation of the models shows that the autocorrelation links significantly improve prediction accuracy for some villages in regions of high incidence. We conclude that spatiotemporal Bayesian networks are a highly promising modeling alternative for prediction

  13. MEANS FOR DETERMINING CENTRIFUGE ALIGNMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, W.Q.

    1958-08-26

    An apparatus is presented for remotely determining the alignment of a centrifuge. The centrifage shaft is provided with a shoulder, upon which two followers ride, one for detecting radial movements, and one upon the shoulder face for determining the axial motion. The followers are attached to separate liquid filled bellows, and a tube connects each bellows to its respective indicating gage at a remote location. Vibrations produced by misalignment of the centrifuge shaft are transmitted to the bellows, and tbence through the tubing to the indicator gage. This apparatus is particularly useful for operation in a hot cell where the materials handled are dangerous to the operating personnel.

  14. NON-ALIGNEMENT IN AFRICA

    OpenAIRE

    G. Jacobs

    2012-01-01

    The first indications to the Western world that African non-alignment had achieved conscious political form became apparent only in the late 1940's. This strand of thought within the tapestry of Africanism reached its zenith with the declarations of Kwame Nkrumah, Jomo Kenyatta and Julius Nyerere in the years after the Pan-African Congress in Manchester in 1945. The causes of the movement go back far beyond the first official expressions of an African solidarity in the 1940's. As a mature exp...

  15. Inferring Rates and Length-Distributions of Indels Using Approximate Bayesian Computation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy Karin, Eli; Shkedy, Dafna; Ashkenazy, Haim; Cartwright, Reed A; Pupko, Tal

    2017-05-01

    The most common evolutionary events at the molecular level are single-base substitutions, as well as insertions and deletions (indels) of short DNA segments. A large body of research has been devoted to develop probabilistic substitution models and to infer their parameters using likelihood and Bayesian approaches. In contrast, relatively little has been done to model indel dynamics, probably due to the difficulty in writing explicit likelihood functions. Here, we contribute to the effort of modeling indel dynamics by presenting SpartaABC, an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach to infer indel parameters from sequence data (either aligned or unaligned). SpartaABC circumvents the need to use an explicit likelihood function by extracting summary statistics from simulated sequences. First, summary statistics are extracted from the input sequence data. Second, SpartaABC samples indel parameters from a prior distribution and uses them to simulate sequences. Third, it computes summary statistics from the simulated sets of sequences. By computing a distance between the summary statistics extracted from the input and each simulation, SpartaABC can provide an approximation to the posterior distribution of indel parameters as well as point estimates. We study the performance of our methodology and show that it provides accurate estimates of indel parameters in simulations. We next demonstrate the utility of SpartaABC by studying the impact of alignment errors on the inference of positive selection. A C ++ program implementing SpartaABC is freely available in http://spartaabc.tau.ac.il. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

  16. deal: A Package for Learning Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne G. Boettcher

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available deal is a software package for use with R. It includes several methods for analysing data using Bayesian networks with variables of discrete and/or continuous types but restricted to conditionally Gaussian networks. Construction of priors for network parameters is supported and their parameters can be learned from data using conjugate updating. The network score is used as a metric to learn the structure of the network and forms the basis of a heuristic search strategy. deal has an interface to Hugin.

  17. Multisnapshot Sparse Bayesian Learning for DOA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerstoft, Peter; Mecklenbrauker, Christoph F.; Xenaki, Angeliki

    2016-01-01

    The directions of arrival (DOA) of plane waves are estimated from multisnapshot sensor array data using sparse Bayesian learning (SBL). The prior for the source amplitudes is assumed independent zero-mean complex Gaussian distributed with hyperparameters, the unknown variances (i.e., the source...... powers). For a complex Gaussian likelihood with hyperparameter, the unknown noise variance, the corresponding Gaussian posterior distribution is derived. The hyperparameters are automatically selected by maximizing the evidence and promoting sparse DOA estimates. The SBL scheme for DOA estimation...

  18. Case studies in Bayesian microbial risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Turner Joanne

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The quantification of uncertainty and variability is a key component of quantitative risk analysis. Recent advances in Bayesian statistics make it ideal for integrating multiple sources of information, of different types and quality, and providing a realistic estimate of the combined uncertainty in the final risk estimates. Methods We present two case studies related to foodborne microbial risks. In the first, we combine models to describe the sequence of events resulting in illness from consumption of milk contaminated with VTEC O157. We used Monte Carlo simulation to propagate uncertainty in some of the inputs to computer models describing the farm and pasteurisation process. Resulting simulated contamination levels were then assigned to consumption events from a dietary survey. Finally we accounted for uncertainty in the dose-response relationship and uncertainty due to limited incidence data to derive uncertainty about yearly incidences of illness in young children. Options for altering the risk were considered by running the model with different hypothetical policy-driven exposure scenarios. In the second case study we illustrate an efficient Bayesian sensitivity analysis for identifying the most important parameters of a complex computer code that simulated VTEC O157 prevalence within a managed dairy herd. This was carried out in 2 stages, first to screen out the unimportant inputs, then to perform a more detailed analysis on the remaining inputs. The method works by building a Bayesian statistical approximation to the computer code using a number of known code input/output pairs (training runs. Results We estimated that the expected total number of children aged 1.5-4.5 who become ill due to VTEC O157 in milk is 8.6 per year, with 95% uncertainty interval (0,11.5. The most extreme policy we considered was banning on-farm pasteurisation of milk, which reduced the estimate to 6.4 with 95% interval (0,11. In the second

  19. Bayesian regularization of diffusion tensor images

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frandsen, Jesper; Hobolth, Asger; Østergaard, Leif

    2007-01-01

    Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) is a powerful tool in the study of the course of nerve fibre bundles in the human brain. Using DTI, the local fibre orientation in each image voxel can be described by a diffusion tensor which is constructed from local measurements of diffusion coefficients along...... several directions. The measured diffusion coefficients and thereby the diffusion tensors are subject to noise, leading to possibly flawed representations of the three dimensional fibre bundles. In this paper we develop a Bayesian procedure for regularizing the diffusion tensor field, fully utilizing...

  20. Optimized Bayesian dynamic advising theory and algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    Karny, Miroslav

    2006-01-01

    Written by one of the world's leading groups in the area of Bayesian identification, control, and decision making, this book provides the theoretical and algorithmic basis of optimized probabilistic advising. Starting from abstract ideas and formulations, and culminating in detailed algorithms, the book comprises a unified treatment of an important problem of the design of advisory systems supporting supervisors of complex processes. It introduces the theoretical and algorithmic basis of developed advising, relying on novel and powerful combination black-box modelling by dynamic mixture models

  1. Personalized Audio Systems - a Bayesian Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jens Brehm; Jensen, Bjørn Sand; Hansen, Toke Jansen

    2013-01-01

    Modern audio systems are typically equipped with several user-adjustable parameters unfamiliar to most users listening to the system. To obtain the best possible setting, the user is forced into multi-parameter optimization with respect to the users's own objective and preference. To address this......, the present paper presents a general inter-active framework for personalization of such audio systems. The framework builds on Bayesian Gaussian process regression in which a model of the users's objective function is updated sequentially. The parameter setting to be evaluated in a given trial is selected...

  2. Bayesian estimation of core-melt probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, H.W.

    1984-01-01

    A very simple application of the canonical Bayesian algorithm is made to the problem of estimation of the probability of core melt in a commercial power reactor. An approximation to the results of the Rasmussen study on reactor safety is used as the prior distribution, and the observation that there has been no core melt yet is used as the single experiment. The result is a substantial decrease in the mean probability of core melt--factors of 2 to 4 for reasonable choices of parameters. The purpose is to illustrate the procedure, not to argue for the decrease

  3. Structure-based bayesian sparse reconstruction

    KAUST Repository

    Quadeer, Ahmed Abdul

    2012-12-01

    Sparse signal reconstruction algorithms have attracted research attention due to their wide applications in various fields. In this paper, we present a simple Bayesian approach that utilizes the sparsity constraint and a priori statistical information (Gaussian or otherwise) to obtain near optimal estimates. In addition, we make use of the rich structure of the sensing matrix encountered in many signal processing applications to develop a fast sparse recovery algorithm. The computational complexity of the proposed algorithm is very low compared with the widely used convex relaxation methods as well as greedy matching pursuit techniques, especially at high sparsity. © 1991-2012 IEEE.

  4. Bayesian regression of piecewise homogeneous Poisson processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Sevilla

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a Bayesian method for piecewise regression is adapted to handle counting processes data distributed as Poisson. A numerical code in Mathematica is developed and tested analyzing simulated data. The resulting method is valuable for detecting breaking points in the count rate of time series for Poisson processes. Received: 2 November 2015, Accepted: 27 November 2015; Edited by: R. Dickman; Reviewed by: M. Hutter, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.070018 Cite as: D J R Sevilla, Papers in Physics 7, 070018 (2015

  5. Bayesian analysis of a correlated binomial model

    OpenAIRE

    Diniz, Carlos A. R.; Tutia, Marcelo H.; Leite, Jose G.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper a Bayesian approach is applied to the correlated binomial model, CB(n, p, ρ), proposed by Luceño (Comput. Statist. Data Anal. 20 (1995) 511–520). The data augmentation scheme is used in order to overcome the complexity of the mixture likelihood. MCMC methods, including Gibbs sampling and Metropolis within Gibbs, are applied to estimate the posterior marginal for the probability of success p and for the correlation coefficient ρ. The sensitivity of the posterior is studied taking...

  6. Bayesian stratified sampling to assess corpus utility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hochberg, J.; Scovel, C.; Thomas, T.; Hall, S.

    1998-12-01

    This paper describes a method for asking statistical questions about a large text corpus. The authors exemplify the method by addressing the question, ``What percentage of Federal Register documents are real documents, of possible interest to a text researcher or analyst?`` They estimate an answer to this question by evaluating 200 documents selected from a corpus of 45,820 Federal Register documents. Bayesian analysis and stratified sampling are used to reduce the sampling uncertainty of the estimate from over 3,100 documents to fewer than 1,000. A possible application of the method is to establish baseline statistics used to estimate recall rates for information retrieval systems.

  7. Reticular alignment: A progressive corner-cutting method for multiple sequence alignment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novák Ádám

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In this paper, we introduce a progressive corner cutting method called Reticular Alignment for multiple sequence alignment. Unlike previous corner-cutting methods, our approach does not define a compact part of the dynamic programming table. Instead, it defines a set of optimal and suboptimal alignments at each step during the progressive alignment. The set of alignments are represented with a network to store them and use them during the progressive alignment in an efficient way. The program contains a threshold parameter on which the size of the network depends. The larger the threshold parameter and thus the network, the deeper the search in the alignment space for better scored alignments. Results We implemented the program in the Java programming language, and tested it on the BAliBASE database. Reticular Alignment can outperform ClustalW even if a very simple scoring scheme (BLOSUM62 and affine gap penalty is implemented and merely the threshold value is increased. However, this set-up is not sufficient for outperforming other cutting-edge alignment methods. On the other hand, the reticular alignment search strategy together with sophisticated scoring schemes (for example, differentiating gap penalties for hydrophobic and hydrophylic amino acids overcome FSA and in some accuracy measurement, even MAFFT. The program is available from http://phylogeny-cafe.elte.hu/RetAlign/ Conclusions Reticular alignment is an efficient search strategy for finding accurate multiple alignments. The highest accuracy achieved when this searching strategy is combined with sophisticated scoring schemes.

  8. An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly M; Clifton, James P; van de Schoot, Rens; Tiemensma, Jitske

    2017-09-01

    The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of health psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation models, latent growth curve (and mixture) models, and hierarchical linear models. Likewise, Bayesian methods can be used with small sample sizes since they do not rely on large sample theory. In this article, we discuss several important components of Bayesian statistics as they relate to health-based inquiries. We discuss the incorporation and impact of prior knowledge into the estimation process and the different components of the analysis that should be reported in an article. We present an example implementing Bayesian estimation in the context of blood pressure changes after participants experienced an acute stressor. We conclude with final thoughts on the implementation of Bayesian statistics in health psychology, including suggestions for reviewing Bayesian manuscripts and grant proposals. We have also included an extensive amount of online supplementary material to complement the content presented here, including Bayesian examples using many different software programmes and an extensive sensitivity analysis examining the impact of priors.

  9. What Is the Probability You Are a Bayesian?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wulff, Shaun S.; Robinson, Timothy J.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian methodology continues to be widely used in statistical applications. As a result, it is increasingly important to introduce students to Bayesian thinking at early stages in their mathematics and statistics education. While many students in upper level probability courses can recite the differences in the Frequentist and Bayesian…

  10. Bayesian model ensembling using meta-trained recurrent neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ambrogioni, L.; Berezutskaya, Y.; Gü ç lü , U.; Borne, E.W.P. van den; Gü ç lü tü rk, Y.; Gerven, M.A.J. van; Maris, E.G.G.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we demonstrate that a recurrent neural network meta-trained on an ensemble of arbitrary classification tasks can be used as an approximation of the Bayes optimal classifier. This result is obtained by relying on the framework of e-free approximate Bayesian inference, where the Bayesian

  11. Applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Hendrik J.

    1994-01-01

    Some applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems are considered. How the problem of adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to the changing nature of a student's capabilities during the learning process can be situated in the general framework of Bayesian decision

  12. Power in Bayesian Mediation Analysis for Small Sample Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miočević, M.; MacKinnon, David; Levy, Roy

    2017-01-01

    Bayesian methods have the potential for increasing power in mediation analysis (Koopman, Howe, Hollenbeck, & Sin, 2015; Yuan & MacKinnon, 2009). This article compares the power of Bayesian credibility intervals for the mediated effect to the power of normal theory, distribution of the product,

  13. Using Alien Coins to Test Whether Simple Inference Is Bayesian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassey, Peter; Hawkins, Guy E.; Donkin, Chris; Brown, Scott D.

    2016-01-01

    Reasoning and inference are well-studied aspects of basic cognition that have been explained as statistically optimal Bayesian inference. Using a simplified experimental design, we conducted quantitative comparisons between Bayesian inference and human inference at the level of individuals. In 3 experiments, with more than 13,000 participants, we…

  14. Bayesian Compressed Sensing with Unknown Measurement Noise Level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Thomas Lundgaard; Jørgensen, Peter Bjørn; Pedersen, Niels Lovmand

    2013-01-01

    In sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) approximate Bayesian inference is applied to find sparse estimates from observations corrupted by additive noise. Current literature only vaguely considers the case where the noise level is unknown a priori. We show that for most state-of-the-art reconstruction a...

  15. Comparative Study of Inference Methods for Bayesian Nonnegative Matrix Factorisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brouwer, Thomas; Frellsen, Jes; Liò, Pietro

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we study the trade-offs of different inference approaches for Bayesian matrix factorisation methods, which are commonly used for predicting missing values, and for finding patterns in the data. In particular, we consider Bayesian nonnegative variants of matrix factorisation and tri...

  16. Estimating mental states of a depressed person with bayesian networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klein, Michel C.A.; Modena, Gabriele

    2013-01-01

    In this work in progress paper we present an approach based on Bayesian Networks to model the relationship between mental states and empirical observations in a depressed person. We encode relationships and domain expertise as a Hierarchical Bayesian Network. Mental states are represented as latent

  17. Mechanistic curiosity will not kill the Bayesian cat

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borsboom, D.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.; Romeijn, J.-W.

    2011-01-01

    Jones & Love (J&L) suggest that Bayesian approaches to the explanation of human behavior should be constrained by mechanistic theories. We argue that their proposal misconstrues the relation between process models, such as the Bayesian model, and mechanisms. While mechanistic theories can answer

  18. Mechanistic curiosity will not kill the Bayesian cat

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borsboom, Denny; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Romeijn, Jan-Willem

    Jones & Love (J&L) suggest that Bayesian approaches to the explanation of human behavior should be constrained by mechanistic theories. We argue that their proposal misconstrues the relation between process models, such as the Bayesian model, and mechanisms. While mechanistic theories can answer

  19. A Bayesian approach to two-mode clustering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. van Dijk (Bram); J.M. van Rosmalen (Joost); R. Paap (Richard)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractWe develop a new Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of a latent-class model for the joint clustering of both modes of two-mode data matrices. Posterior results are obtained using a Gibbs sampler with data augmentation. Our Bayesian approach has three advantages over existing

  20. Non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian networks for continuous data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    Classical dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are based on the homogeneous Markov assumption and cannot deal with non-homogeneous temporal processes. Various approaches to relax the homogeneity assumption have recently been proposed. The present paper presents a combination of a Bayesian network with

  1. An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly; Clifton, James; van de Schoot, A.G.J.; Tiemensma, Jitske

    2017-01-01

    The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of Health Psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation

  2. How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning without Instruction: Frequency Formats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hoffrage, Ulrich

    1995-01-01

    It is shown that Bayesian algorithms are computationally simpler in frequency formats than in the probability formats used in previous research. Analysis of several thousand solutions to Bayesian problems showed that when information was presented in frequency formats, statistically naive participants derived up to 50% of inferences by Bayesian…

  3. Prognostic Bayesian networks I: Rationale, learning procedure, and clinical use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verduijn, Marion; Peek, Niels; Rosseel, Peter M. J.; de Jonge, Evert; de Mol, Bas A. J. M.

    2007-01-01

    Prognostic models are tools to predict the future outcome of disease and disease treatment, one of the fundamental tasks in clinical medicine. This article presents the prognostic Bayesian network (PBN) as a new type of prognostic model that builds on the Bayesian network methodology, and implements

  4. BATMAN--an R package for the automated quantification of metabolites from nuclear magnetic resonance spectra using a Bayesian model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Jie; Astle, William; De Iorio, Maria; Ebbels, Timothy M D

    2012-08-01

    Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectra are widely used in metabolomics to obtain metabolite profiles in complex biological mixtures. Common methods used to assign and estimate concentrations of metabolites involve either an expert manual peak fitting or extra pre-processing steps, such as peak alignment and binning. Peak fitting is very time consuming and is subject to human error. Conversely, alignment and binning can introduce artefacts and limit immediate biological interpretation of models. We present the Bayesian automated metabolite analyser for NMR spectra (BATMAN), an R package that deconvolutes peaks from one-dimensional NMR spectra, automatically assigns them to specific metabolites from a target list and obtains concentration estimates. The Bayesian model incorporates information on characteristic peak patterns of metabolites and is able to account for shifts in the position of peaks commonly seen in NMR spectra of biological samples. It applies a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from a joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and obtains concentration estimates with reduced error compared with conventional numerical integration and comparable to manual deconvolution by experienced spectroscopists. http://www1.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/people/t.ebbels/ t.ebbels@imperial.ac.uk.

  5. Polynomial Chaos Surrogates for Bayesian Inference

    KAUST Repository

    Le Maitre, Olivier

    2016-01-06

    The Bayesian inference is a popular probabilistic method to solve inverse problems, such as the identification of field parameter in a PDE model. The inference rely on the Bayes rule to update the prior density of the sought field, from observations, and derive its posterior distribution. In most cases the posterior distribution has no explicit form and has to be sampled, for instance using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method. In practice the prior field parameter is decomposed and truncated (e.g. by means of Karhunen- Lo´eve decomposition) to recast the inference problem into the inference of a finite number of coordinates. Although proved effective in many situations, the Bayesian inference as sketched above faces several difficulties requiring improvements. First, sampling the posterior can be a extremely costly task as it requires multiple resolutions of the PDE model for different values of the field parameter. Second, when the observations are not very much informative, the inferred parameter field can highly depends on its prior which can be somehow arbitrary. These issues have motivated the introduction of reduced modeling or surrogates for the (approximate) determination of the parametrized PDE solution and hyperparameters in the description of the prior field. Our contribution focuses on recent developments in these two directions: the acceleration of the posterior sampling by means of Polynomial Chaos expansions and the efficient treatment of parametrized covariance functions for the prior field. We also discuss the possibility of making such approach adaptive to further improve its efficiency.

  6. Robustifying Bayesian nonparametric mixtures for count data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canale, Antonio; Prünster, Igor

    2017-03-01

    Our motivating application stems from surveys of natural populations and is characterized by large spatial heterogeneity in the counts, which makes parametric approaches to modeling local animal abundance too restrictive. We adopt a Bayesian nonparametric approach based on mixture models and innovate with respect to popular Dirichlet process mixture of Poisson kernels by increasing the model flexibility at the level both of the kernel and the nonparametric mixing measure. This allows to derive accurate and robust estimates of the distribution of local animal abundance and of the corresponding clusters. The application and a simulation study for different scenarios yield also some general methodological implications. Adding flexibility solely at the level of the mixing measure does not improve inferences, since its impact is severely limited by the rigidity of the Poisson kernel with considerable consequences in terms of bias. However, once a kernel more flexible than the Poisson is chosen, inferences can be robustified by choosing a prior more general than the Dirichlet process. Therefore, to improve the performance of Bayesian nonparametric mixtures for count data one has to enrich the model simultaneously at both levels, the kernel and the mixing measure. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  7. Bayesian hypothesis testing and the maintenance rule

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, D.L.

    1997-01-01

    The Maintenance Rule (10 CFR 50.65) went into effect in the United States in July 1996. It requires commercial nuclear utilities to monitor system performance (system reliability and maintenance unavailability) for systems that are determined by the utility to be important to plant safety. Utilities must set performance goals for such systems and monitor system performance against these goals. In addition, these performance goals are intended to be commensurate with the safety significance of the system, which can be established by a probabilistic safety assessment of the plant. The author examines the frequents approach to monitoring performance, which is being used by several utilities, and proposes an alternative Bayesian approach. The Bayesian approach makes more complete use of the information in the probabilistic safety assessment, is consistent philosophically with the subjective interpretation given to probability in most probabilistic safety assessments, overcomes several pitfalls in the frequents approach, provides results which are easily interpretable, and is straightforward to implement using the information in the probabilistic safety assessment

  8. A Bayesian Networks approach to Operational Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquaro, V.; Bardoscia, M.; Bellotti, R.; Consiglio, A.; De Carlo, F.; Ferri, G.

    2010-04-01

    A system for Operational Risk management based on the computational paradigm of Bayesian Networks is presented. The algorithm allows the construction of a Bayesian Network targeted for each bank and takes into account in a simple and realistic way the correlations among different processes of the bank. The internal losses are averaged over a variable time horizon, so that the correlations at different times are removed, while the correlations at the same time are kept: the averaged losses are thus suitable to perform the learning of the network topology and parameters; since the main aim is to understand the role of the correlations among the losses, the assessments of domain experts are not used. The algorithm has been validated on synthetic time series. It should be stressed that the proposed algorithm has been thought for the practical implementation in a mid or small sized bank, since it has a small impact on the organizational structure of a bank and requires an investment in human resources which is limited to the computational area.

  9. Discovering Alzheimer Genetic Biomarkers Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fayroz F. Sherif

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs contribute most of the genetic variation to the human genome. SNPs associate with many complex and common diseases like Alzheimer’s disease (AD. Discovering SNP biomarkers at different loci can improve early diagnosis and treatment of these diseases. Bayesian network provides a comprehensible and modular framework for representing interactions between genes or single SNPs. Here, different Bayesian network structure learning algorithms have been applied in whole genome sequencing (WGS data for detecting the causal AD SNPs and gene-SNP interactions. We focused on polymorphisms in the top ten genes associated with AD and identified by genome-wide association (GWA studies. New SNP biomarkers were observed to be significantly associated with Alzheimer’s disease. These SNPs are rs7530069, rs113464261, rs114506298, rs73504429, rs7929589, rs76306710, and rs668134. The obtained results demonstrated the effectiveness of using BN for identifying AD causal SNPs with acceptable accuracy. The results guarantee that the SNP set detected by Markov blanket based methods has a strong association with AD disease and achieves better performance than both naïve Bayes and tree augmented naïve Bayes. Minimal augmented Markov blanket reaches accuracy of 66.13% and sensitivity of 88.87% versus 61.58% and 59.43% in naïve Bayes, respectively.

  10. A Bayesian account of quantum histories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marlow, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    We investigate whether quantum history theories can be consistent with Bayesian reasoning and whether such an analysis helps clarify the interpretation of such theories. First, we summarise and extend recent work categorising two different approaches to formalising multi-time measurements in quantum theory. The standard approach consists of describing an ordered series of measurements in terms of history propositions with non-additive 'probabilities.' The non-standard approach consists of defining multi-time measurements to consist of sets of exclusive and exhaustive history propositions and recovering the single-time exclusivity of results when discussing single-time history propositions. We analyse whether such history propositions can be consistent with Bayes' rule. We show that certain class of histories are given a natural Bayesian interpretation, namely, the linearly positive histories originally introduced by Goldstein and Page. Thus, we argue that this gives a certain amount of interpretational clarity to the non-standard approach. We also attempt a justification of our analysis using Cox's axioms of probability theory

  11. Bayesian data analysis tools for atomic physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trassinelli, Martino

    2017-10-01

    We present an introduction to some concepts of Bayesian data analysis in the context of atomic physics. Starting from basic rules of probability, we present the Bayes' theorem and its applications. In particular we discuss about how to calculate simple and joint probability distributions and the Bayesian evidence, a model dependent quantity that allows to assign probabilities to different hypotheses from the analysis of a same data set. To give some practical examples, these methods are applied to two concrete cases. In the first example, the presence or not of a satellite line in an atomic spectrum is investigated. In the second example, we determine the most probable model among a set of possible profiles from the analysis of a statistically poor spectrum. We show also how to calculate the probability distribution of the main spectral component without having to determine uniquely the spectrum modeling. For these two studies, we implement the program Nested_fit to calculate the different probability distributions and other related quantities. Nested_fit is a Fortran90/Python code developed during the last years for analysis of atomic spectra. As indicated by the name, it is based on the nested algorithm, which is presented in details together with the program itself.

  12. A Bayesian approach to person perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clifford, C W G; Mareschal, I; Otsuka, Y; Watson, T L

    2015-11-01

    Here we propose a Bayesian approach to person perception, outlining the theoretical position and a methodological framework for testing the predictions experimentally. We use the term person perception to refer not only to the perception of others' personal attributes such as age and sex but also to the perception of social signals such as direction of gaze and emotional expression. The Bayesian approach provides a formal description of the way in which our perception combines current sensory evidence with prior expectations about the structure of the environment. Such expectations can lead to unconscious biases in our perception that are particularly evident when sensory evidence is uncertain. We illustrate the ideas with reference to our recent studies on gaze perception which show that people have a bias to perceive the gaze of others as directed towards themselves. We also describe a potential application to the study of the perception of a person's sex, in which a bias towards perceiving males is typically observed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Bayesian Analysis of Bubbles in Asset Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andras Fulop

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available We develop a new model where the dynamic structure of the asset price, after the fundamental value is removed, is subject to two different regimes. One regime reflects the normal period where the asset price divided by the dividend is assumed to follow a mean-reverting process around a stochastic long run mean. The second regime reflects the bubble period with explosive behavior. Stochastic switches between two regimes and non-constant probabilities of exit from the bubble regime are both allowed. A Bayesian learning approach is employed to jointly estimate the latent states and the model parameters in real time. An important feature of our Bayesian method is that we are able to deal with parameter uncertainty and at the same time, to learn about the states and the parameters sequentially, allowing for real time model analysis. This feature is particularly useful for market surveillance. Analysis using simulated data reveals that our method has good power properties for detecting bubbles. Empirical analysis using price-dividend ratios of S&P500 highlights the advantages of our method.

  14. Bayesian posteriors for arbitrarily rare events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fudenberg, Drew; He, Kevin; Imhof, Lorens A

    2017-05-09

    We study how much data a Bayesian observer needs to correctly infer the relative likelihoods of two events when both events are arbitrarily rare. Each period, either a blue die or a red die is tossed. The two dice land on side [Formula: see text] with unknown probabilities [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], which can be arbitrarily low. Given a data-generating process where [Formula: see text], we are interested in how much data are required to guarantee that with high probability the observer's Bayesian posterior mean for [Formula: see text] exceeds [Formula: see text] times that for [Formula: see text] If the prior densities for the two dice are positive on the interior of the parameter space and behave like power functions at the boundary, then for every [Formula: see text] there exists a finite [Formula: see text] so that the observer obtains such an inference after [Formula: see text] periods with probability at least [Formula: see text] whenever [Formula: see text] The condition on [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] is the best possible. The result can fail if one of the prior densities converges to zero exponentially fast at the boundary.

  15. Bayesian estimation of isotopic age differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curl, R.L.

    1988-01-01

    Isotopic dating is subject to uncertainties arising from counting statistics and experimental errors. These uncertainties are additive when an isotopic age difference is calculated. If large, they can lead to no significant age difference by classical statistics. In many cases, relative ages are known because of stratigraphic order or other clues. Such information can be used to establish a Bayes estimate of age difference which will include prior knowledge of age order. Age measurement errors are assumed to be log-normal and a noninformative but constrained bivariate prior for two true ages in known order is adopted. True-age ratio is distributed as a truncated log-normal variate. Its expected value gives an age-ratio estimate, and its variance provides credible intervals. Bayesian estimates of ages are different and in correct order even if measured ages are identical or reversed in order. For example, age measurements on two samples might both yield 100 ka with coefficients of variation of 0.2. Bayesian estimates are 22.7 ka for age difference with a 75% credible interval of [4.4, 43.7] ka

  16. Accelerating Bayesian inference for evolutionary biology models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Xavier; Chopard, Bastien; Salamin, Nicolas

    2017-03-01

    Bayesian inference is widely used nowadays and relies largely on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Evolutionary biology has greatly benefited from the developments of MCMC methods, but the design of more complex and realistic models and the ever growing availability of novel data is pushing the limits of the current use of these methods. We present a parallel Metropolis-Hastings (M-H) framework built with a novel combination of enhancements aimed towards parameter-rich and complex models. We show on a parameter-rich macroevolutionary model increases of the sampling speed up to 35 times with 32 processors when compared to a sequential M-H process. More importantly, our framework achieves up to a twentyfold faster convergence to estimate the posterior probability of phylogenetic trees using 32 processors when compared to the well-known software MrBayes for Bayesian inference of phylogenetic trees. https://bitbucket.org/XavMeyer/hogan. nicolas.salamin@unil.ch. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

  17. Attention as a Bayesian inference process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chikkerur, Sharat; Serre, Thomas; Tan, Cheston; Poggio, Tomaso

    2011-03-01

    David Marr famously defined vision as "knowing what is where by seeing". In the framework described here, attention is the inference process that solves the visual recognition problem of what is where. The theory proposes a computational role for attention and leads to a model that performs well in recognition tasks and that predicts some of the main properties of attention at the level of psychophysics and physiology. We propose an algorithmic implementation a Bayesian network that can be mapped into the basic functional anatomy of attention involving the ventral stream and the dorsal stream. This description integrates bottom-up, feature-based as well as spatial (context based) attentional mechanisms. We show that the Bayesian model predicts well human eye fixations (considered as a proxy for shifts of attention) in natural scenes, and can improve accuracy in object recognition tasks involving cluttered real world images. In both cases, we found that the proposed model can predict human performance better than existing bottom-up and top-down computational models.

  18. Bayesian automated cortical segmentation for neonatal MRI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Zane; Paquette, Natacha; Ganesh, Bhavana; Wang, Yalin; Ceschin, Rafael; Nelson, Marvin D.; Macyszyn, Luke; Gaonkar, Bilwaj; Panigrahy, Ashok; Lepore, Natasha

    2017-11-01

    Several attempts have been made in the past few years to develop and implement an automated segmentation of neonatal brain structural MRI. However, accurate automated MRI segmentation remains challenging in this population because of the low signal-to-noise ratio, large partial volume effects and inter-individual anatomical variability of the neonatal brain. In this paper, we propose a learning method for segmenting the whole brain cortical grey matter on neonatal T2-weighted images. We trained our algorithm using a neonatal dataset composed of 3 fullterm and 4 preterm infants scanned at term equivalent age. Our segmentation pipeline combines the FAST algorithm from the FSL library software and a Bayesian segmentation approach to create a threshold matrix that minimizes the error of mislabeling brain tissue types. Our method shows promising results with our pilot training set. In both preterm and full-term neonates, automated Bayesian segmentation generates a smoother and more consistent parcellation compared to FAST, while successfully removing the subcortical structure and cleaning the edges of the cortical grey matter. This method show promising refinement of the FAST segmentation by considerably reducing manual input and editing required from the user, and further improving reliability and processing time of neonatal MR images. Further improvement will include a larger dataset of training images acquired from different manufacturers.

  19. Probabilistic Space Weather Forecasting: a Bayesian Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camporeale, E.; Chandorkar, M.; Borovsky, J.; Care', A.

    2017-12-01

    Most of the Space Weather forecasts, both at operational and research level, are not probabilistic in nature. Unfortunately, a prediction that does not provide a confidence level is not very useful in a decision-making scenario. Nowadays, forecast models range from purely data-driven, machine learning algorithms, to physics-based approximation of first-principle equations (and everything that sits in between). Uncertainties pervade all such models, at every level: from the raw data to finite-precision implementation of numerical methods. The most rigorous way of quantifying the propagation of uncertainties is by embracing a Bayesian probabilistic approach. One of the simplest and most robust machine learning technique in the Bayesian framework is Gaussian Process regression and classification. Here, we present the application of Gaussian Processes to the problems of the DST geomagnetic index forecast, the solar wind type classification, and the estimation of diffusion parameters in radiation belt modeling. In each of these very diverse problems, the GP approach rigorously provide forecasts in the form of predictive distributions. In turn, these distributions can be used as input for ensemble simulations in order to quantify the amplification of uncertainties. We show that we have achieved excellent results in all of the standard metrics to evaluate our models, with very modest computational cost.

  20. Computerized tongue diagnosis based on Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Bo; Zhang, David; Li, Naimin; Wang, Kuanquan

    2004-10-01

    Tongue diagnosis is an important diagnostic method in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). However, due to its qualitative, subjective and experience-based nature, traditional tongue diagnosis has a very limited-application in clinical medicine. Moreover, traditional tongue diagnosis is always concerned with the identification of syndromes rather than with the connection between tongue abnormal appearances and diseases. This is not well understood in Western medicine, thus greatly obstruct its wider use in the world. In this paper, we present a novel computerized tongue inspection method aiming to address these problems. First, two kinds of quantitative features, chromatic and textural measures, are extracted from tongue images by using popular digital image processing techniques. Then, Bayesian networks are employed to model the relationship between these quantitative features and diseases. The effectiveness of the method is tested on a group of 455 patients affected by 13 common diseases as well as other 70 healthy volunteers, and the diagnostic results predicted by the previously trained Bayesian network classifiers are reported.

  1. A cross-species alignment tool (CAT)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Heng; Guan, Liang; Liu, Tao

    2007-01-01

    sensitive methods which are usually applied in aligning inter-species sequences. RESULTS: Here we present a new algorithm called CAT (for Cross-species Alignment Tool). It is designed to align mRNA sequences to mammalian-sized genomes. CAT is implemented using C scripts and is freely available on the web......BACKGROUND: The main two sorts of automatic gene annotation frameworks are ab initio and alignment-based, the latter splitting into two sub-groups. The first group is used for intra-species alignments, among which are successful ones with high specificity and speed. The other group contains more...... at http://xat.sourceforge.net/. CONCLUSIONS: Examined from different angles, CAT outperforms other extant alignment tools. Tested against all available mouse-human and zebrafish-human orthologs, we demonstrate that CAT combines the specificity and speed of the best intra-species algorithms, like BLAT...

  2. Semisupervised learning using Bayesian interpretation: application to LS-SVM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adankon, Mathias M; Cheriet, Mohamed; Biem, Alain

    2011-04-01

    Bayesian reasoning provides an ideal basis for representing and manipulating uncertain knowledge, with the result that many interesting algorithms in machine learning are based on Bayesian inference. In this paper, we use the Bayesian approach with one and two levels of inference to model the semisupervised learning problem and give its application to the successful kernel classifier support vector machine (SVM) and its variant least-squares SVM (LS-SVM). Taking advantage of Bayesian interpretation of LS-SVM, we develop a semisupervised learning algorithm for Bayesian LS-SVM using our approach based on two levels of inference. Experimental results on both artificial and real pattern recognition problems show the utility of our method.

  3. Approximation methods for efficient learning of Bayesian networks

    CERN Document Server

    Riggelsen, C

    2008-01-01

    This publication offers and investigates efficient Monte Carlo simulation methods in order to realize a Bayesian approach to approximate learning of Bayesian networks from both complete and incomplete data. For large amounts of incomplete data when Monte Carlo methods are inefficient, approximations are implemented, such that learning remains feasible, albeit non-Bayesian. The topics discussed are: basic concepts about probabilities, graph theory and conditional independence; Bayesian network learning from data; Monte Carlo simulation techniques; and, the concept of incomplete data. In order to provide a coherent treatment of matters, thereby helping the reader to gain a thorough understanding of the whole concept of learning Bayesian networks from (in)complete data, this publication combines in a clarifying way all the issues presented in the papers with previously unpublished work.

  4. Bayesian signal processing classical, modern, and particle filtering methods

    CERN Document Server

    Candy, James V

    2016-01-01

    This book aims to give readers a unified Bayesian treatment starting from the basics (Baye's rule) to the more advanced (Monte Carlo sampling), evolving to the next-generation model-based techniques (sequential Monte Carlo sampling). This next edition incorporates a new chapter on "Sequential Bayesian Detection," a new section on "Ensemble Kalman Filters" as well as an expansion of Case Studies that detail Bayesian solutions for a variety of applications. These studies illustrate Bayesian approaches to real-world problems incorporating detailed particle filter designs, adaptive particle filters and sequential Bayesian detectors. In addition to these major developments a variety of sections are expanded to "fill-in-the gaps" of the first edition. Here metrics for particle filter (PF) designs with emphasis on classical "sanity testing" lead to ensemble techniques as a basic requirement for performance analysis. The expansion of information theory metrics and their application to PF designs is fully developed an...

  5. Distributed Interference Alignment with Low Overhead

    OpenAIRE

    Ma, Yanjun; Li, Jiandong; Chen, Rui

    2011-01-01

    Based on closed-form interference alignment (IA) solutions, a low overhead distributed interference alignment (LOIA) scheme is proposed in this paper for the $K$-user SISO interference channel, and extension to multiple antenna scenario is also considered. Compared with the iterative interference alignment (IIA) algorithm proposed by Gomadam et al., the overhead is greatly reduced. Simulation results show that the IIA algorithm is strictly suboptimal compared with our LOIA algorithm in the ov...

  6. The Practical Challenges of Interference Alignment

    OpenAIRE

    Ayach, Omar El; Peters, Steven W.; Heath Jr, Robert W.

    2012-01-01

    Interference alignment (IA) is a revolutionary wireless transmission strategy that reduces the impact of interference. The idea of interference alignment is to coordinate multiple transmitters so that their mutual interference aligns at the receivers, facilitating simple interference cancellation techniques. Since IA's inception, researchers have investigated its performance and proposed improvements, verifying IA's ability to achieve the maximum degrees of freedom (an approximation of sum ca...

  7. Clear aligners generations and orthodontic tooth movement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennessy, Joe; Al-Awadhi, Ebrahim A

    2016-03-01

    Clear aligner technology has evolved over the last 15 years, with these appliances continually being modified to increase the range of tooth movements that they can achieve. However, there is very little clinical research available to show how these appliances achieve their results. This article describes the different generations of clear aligners that are available and highlights their use. However, until more clinical research becomes available, aligners cannot be routinely prescribed as an effective alternative to fixed labial appliances.

  8. Triangular Alignment (TAME). A Tensor-based Approach for Higher-order Network Alignment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mohammadi, Shahin [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States); Gleich, David F. [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States); Kolda, Tamara G. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Grama, Ananth [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States)

    2015-11-01

    Network alignment is an important tool with extensive applications in comparative interactomics. Traditional approaches aim to simultaneously maximize the number of conserved edges and the underlying similarity of aligned entities. We propose a novel formulation of the network alignment problem that extends topological similarity to higher-order structures and provide a new objective function that maximizes the number of aligned substructures. This objective function corresponds to an integer programming problem, which is NP-hard. Consequently, we approximate this objective function as a surrogate function whose maximization results in a tensor eigenvalue problem. Based on this formulation, we present an algorithm called Triangular AlignMEnt (TAME), which attempts to maximize the number of aligned triangles across networks. We focus on alignment of triangles because of their enrichment in complex networks; however, our formulation and resulting algorithms can be applied to general motifs. Using a case study on the NAPABench dataset, we show that TAME is capable of producing alignments with up to 99% accuracy in terms of aligned nodes. We further evaluate our method by aligning yeast and human interactomes. Our results indicate that TAME outperforms the state-of-art alignment methods both in terms of biological and topological quality of the alignments.

  9. The art of editing RNA structural alignments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ebbe Sloth

    2014-01-01

    Manual editing of RNA structural alignments may be considered more art than science, since it still requires an expert biologist to take multiple levels of information into account and be slightly creative when constructing high-quality alignments. Even though the task is rather tedious, it is re......Manual editing of RNA structural alignments may be considered more art than science, since it still requires an expert biologist to take multiple levels of information into account and be slightly creative when constructing high-quality alignments. Even though the task is rather tedious...

  10. Advancements of vertically aligned liquid crystal displays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Pankaj; Jaggi, Chinky; Sharma, Vandna; Raina, Kuldeep Kumar

    2016-02-01

    This review describes the recent advancements in the field of the vertical aligned (VA) liquid crystal displays. The process and formation of different vertical alignment modes such as conventional VA, patterned VA, multi-domain VA, and polymer stabilised VA etc are widely discussed. Vertical alignment of liquid crystal due to nano particle dispersion in LC host, bifunctional PR-SAM formed by silane coupling reaction to oxide surfaces, azo dye etc., are also highlighted and discussed. Overall, the article highlights the advances in the research of vertical aligned liquid crystal in terms of their scientific and technological aspects. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Using consensus bayesian network to model the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liangdong Hu

    Full Text Available Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn bayesian networks contain too few microarray data. In this paper, we propose a consensus bayesian network which is constructed by combining bayesian networks from relevant literatures and bayesian networks learned from microarray data. It would have a higher accuracy than the bayesian networks learned from one database. In the experiment, we validated the bayesian network combination algorithm on several classic machine learning databases and used the consensus bayesian network to model the Escherichia coli's ROS pathway.

  12. Scintillation counter: photomultiplier tube alignment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olson, R.E.

    1975-01-01

    A scintillation counter, particularly for counting gamma ray photons, includes a massive lead radiation shield surrounding a sample-receiving zone. The shield is disassembleable into a plurality of segments to allow facile installation and removal of a photomultiplier tube assembly, the segments being so constructed as to prevent straight-line access of external radiation through the shield into the sample receiving zone. Provisions are made for accurately aligning the photomultiplier tube with respect to one or more sample-transmitting bores extending through the shield to the sample receiving zone. A sample elevator, used in transporting samples into the zone, is designed to provide a maximum gamma-receiving aspect to maximize the gamma detecting efficiency. (auth)

  13. Fiscal State-citizen Alignment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Celik, Tim Holst

    2016-01-01

    , this article maps out four episodes of sovereign fiscalism, namely, debt-taking in the Italian city-states, the making of the absolutist tax/fiscal state, the eighteenth/nineteenth century elaboration of the economic citizen, and the postwar era of managed capitalism. Finally, it applies this framework......The 2008 crisis ended the growth bubble of the 2000s, which Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) governments facilitated through the normative/political-regulatory promotion of household indebtedness. Historically contextualizing this state-citizen relationship...... to the 2008 crisis and the larger post-1970s politico-economic constellation. The crisis can be perceived as a particular articulation of an age-old state-household dynamic—a dialectical alignment of the mode of fiscal state-crafting with the ethos of the state-citizen nexus—characterized by a heightened...

  14. Dynamic Bayesian Network for Accurate Detection of Peptides from Tandem Mass Spectra.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halloran, John T; Bilmes, Jeff A; Noble, William S

    2016-08-05

    A central problem in mass spectrometry analysis involves identifying, for each observed tandem mass spectrum, the corresponding generating peptide. We present a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) toolkit that addresses this problem by using a machine learning approach. At the heart of this toolkit is a DBN for Rapid Identification (DRIP), which can be trained from collections of high-confidence peptide-spectrum matches (PSMs). DRIP's score function considers fragment ion matches using Gaussians rather than fixed fragment-ion tolerances and also finds the optimal alignment between the theoretical and observed spectrum by considering all possible alignments, up to a threshold that is controlled using a beam-pruning algorithm. This function not only yields state-of-the art database search accuracy but also can be used to generate features that significantly boost the performance of the Percolator postprocessor. The DRIP software is built upon a general purpose DBN toolkit (GMTK), thereby allowing a wide variety of options for user-specific inference tasks as well as facilitating easy modifications to the DRIP model in future work. DRIP is implemented in Python and C++ and is available under Apache license at http://melodi-lab.github.io/dripToolkit .

  15. Heuristics for multiobjective multiple sequence alignment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbasi, Maryam; Paquete, Luís; Pereira, Francisco B

    2016-07-15

    Aligning multiple sequences arises in many tasks in Bioinformatics. However, the alignments produced by the current software packages are highly dependent on the parameters setting, such as the relative importance of opening gaps with respect to the increase of similarity. Choosing only one parameter setting may provide an undesirable bias in further steps of the analysis and give too simplistic interpretations. In this work, we reformulate multiple sequence alignment from a multiobjective point of view. The goal is to generate several sequence alignments that represent a trade-off between maximizing the substitution score and minimizing the number of indels/gaps in the sum-of-pairs score function. This trade-off gives to the practitioner further information about the similarity of the sequences, from which she could analyse and choose the most plausible alignment. We introduce several heuristic approaches, based on local search procedures, that compute a set of sequence alignments, which are representative of the trade-off between the two objectives (substitution score and indels). Several algorithm design options are discussed and analysed, with particular emphasis on the influence of the starting alignment and neighborhood search definitions on the overall performance. A perturbation technique is proposed to improve the local search, which provides a wide range of high-quality alignments. The proposed approach is tested experimentally on a wide range of instances. We performed several experiments with sequences obtained from the benchmark database BAliBASE 3.0. To evaluate the quality of the results, we calculate the hypervolume indicator of the set of score vectors returned by the algorithms. The results obtained allow us to identify reasonably good choices of parameters for our approach. Further, we compared our method in terms of correctly aligned pairs ratio and columns correctly aligned ratio with respect to reference alignments. Experimental results show

  16. Encoding Probabilistic Brain Atlases Using Bayesian Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Van Leemput, Koen

    2008-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of creating probabilistic brain atlases from manually labeled training data. Probabilistic atlases are typically constructed by counting the relative frequency of occurrence of labels in corresponding locations across the training images. However, such an “averaging” approach generalizes poorly to unseen cases when the number of training images is limited, and provides no principled way of aligning the training datasets using deformable registration. In this p...

  17. Free will in Bayesian and inverse Bayesian inference-driven endo-consciousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunji, Yukio-Pegio; Minoura, Mai; Kojima, Kei; Horry, Yoichi

    2017-12-01

    How can we link challenging issues related to consciousness and/or qualia with natural science? The introduction of endo-perspective, instead of exo-perspective, as proposed by Matsuno, Rössler, and Gunji, is considered one of the most promising candidate approaches. Here, we distinguish the endo-from the exo-perspective in terms of whether the external is or is not directly operated. In the endo-perspective, the external can be neither perceived nor recognized directly; rather, one can only indirectly summon something outside of the perspective, which can be illustrated by a causation-reversal pair. On one hand, causation logically proceeds from the cause to the effect. On the other hand, a reversal from the effect to the cause is non-logical and is equipped with a metaphorical structure. We argue that the differences in exo- and endo-perspectives result not from the difference between Western and Eastern cultures, but from differences between modernism and animism. Here, a causation-reversal pair described using a pair of upward (from premise to consequence) and downward (from consequence to premise) causation and a pair of Bayesian and inverse Bayesian inference (BIB inference). Accordingly, the notion of endo-consciousness is proposed as an agent equipped with BIB inference. We also argue that BIB inference can yield both highly efficient computations through Bayesian interference and robust computations through inverse Bayesian inference. By adapting a logical model of the free will theorem to the BIB inference, we show that endo-consciousness can explain free will as a regression of the controllability of voluntary action. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  18. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) coupled with Bayesian model averaging method for estimating mean and standard deviation

    OpenAIRE

    Kwon, Deukwoo; Reis, Isildinha M.

    2016-01-01

    Background: We proposed approximate Bayesian computation with single distribution selection (ABC-SD) for estimating mean and standard deviation from other reported summary statistics. The ABC-SD generates pseudo data from a single parametric distribution thought to be the true distribution of underlying study data. This single distribution is either an educated guess, or it is selected via model selection using posterior probability criterion for testing two or more candidate distributions. F...

  19. Bayesian methods in clinical trials: a Bayesian analysis of ECOG trials E1684 and E1690

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Joseph G

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background E1684 was the pivotal adjuvant melanoma trial for establishment of high-dose interferon (IFN as effective therapy of high-risk melanoma patients. E1690 was an intriguing effort to corroborate E1684, and the differences between the outcomes of these trials have embroiled the field in controversy over the past several years. The analyses of E1684 and E1690 were carried out separately when the results were published, and there were no further analyses trying to perform a single analysis of the combined trials. Method In this paper, we consider such a joint analysis by carrying out a Bayesian analysis of these two trials, thus providing us with a consistent and coherent methodology for combining the results from these two trials. Results The Bayesian analysis using power priors provided a more coherent flexible and potentially more accurate analysis than a separate analysis of these data or a frequentist analysis of these data. The methodology provides a consistent framework for carrying out a single unified analysis by combining data from two or more studies. Conclusions Such Bayesian analyses can be crucial in situations where the results from two theoretically identical trials yield somewhat conflicting or inconsistent results.

  20. Daniel Goodman’s empirical approach to Bayesian statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrodette, Tim; Ward, Eric; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Schwarz, Lisa K.; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Wade, Paul; Himes Boor, Gina

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian statistics, in contrast to classical statistics, uses probability to represent uncertainty about the state of knowledge. Bayesian statistics has often been associated with the idea that knowledge is subjective and that a probability distribution represents a personal degree of belief. Dr. Daniel Goodman considered this viewpoint problematic for issues of public policy. He sought to ground his Bayesian approach in data, and advocated the construction of a prior as an empirical histogram of “similar” cases. In this way, the posterior distribution that results from a Bayesian analysis combined comparable previous data with case-specific current data, using Bayes’ formula. Goodman championed such a data-based approach, but he acknowledged that it was difficult in practice. If based on a true representation of our knowledge and uncertainty, Goodman argued that risk assessment and decision-making could be an exact science, despite the uncertainties. In his view, Bayesian statistics is a critical component of this science because a Bayesian analysis produces the probabilities of future outcomes. Indeed, Goodman maintained that the Bayesian machinery, following the rules of conditional probability, offered the best legitimate inference from available data. We give an example of an informative prior in a recent study of Steller sea lion spatial use patterns in Alaska.

  1. Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

    2017-01-01

    predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior......One of the major challenges with the increase in wind power generation is the uncertain nature of wind speed. So far the uncertainty about wind speed has been presented through probability distributions. Also the existing models that consider the uncertainty of the wind speed primarily view...

  2. A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Factor Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Piatek, Rémi; Papaspiliopoulos, Omiros

    2018-01-01

    This paper introduces a new approach for the inference of non-Gaussian factor models based on Bayesian nonparametric methods. It relaxes the usual normality assumption on the latent factors, widely used in practice, which is too restrictive in many settings. Our approach, on the contrary, does...... not impose any particular assumptions on the shape of the distribution of the factors, but still secures the basic requirements for the identification of the model. We design a new sampling scheme based on marginal data augmentation for the inference of mixtures of normals with location and scale...... restrictions. This approach is augmented by the use of a retrospective sampler, to allow for the inference of a constrained Dirichlet process mixture model for the distribution of the latent factors. We carry out a simulation study to illustrate the methodology and demonstrate its benefits. Our sampler is very...

  3. Chemical identification using Bayesian model selection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burr, Tom; Fry, H. A. (Herbert A.); McVey, B. D. (Brian D.); Sander, E. (Eric)

    2002-01-01

    Remote detection and identification of chemicals in a scene is a challenging problem. We introduce an approach that uses some of the image's pixels to establish the background characteristics while other pixels represent the target for which we seek to identify all chemical species present. This leads to a generalized least squares problem in which we focus on 'subset selection' to identify the chemicals thought to be present. Bayesian model selection allows us to approximate the posterior probability that each chemical in the library is present by adding the posterior probabilities of all the subsets which include the chemical. We present results using realistic simulated data for the case with 1 to 5 chemicals present in each target and compare performance to a hybrid of forward and backward stepwise selection procedure using the F statistic.

  4. Logistic regression against a divergent Bayesian network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noel Antonio Sánchez Trujillo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is a discussion about two statistical tools used for prediction and causality assessment: logistic regression and Bayesian networks. Using data of a simulated example from a study assessing factors that might predict pulmonary emphysema (where fingertip pigmentation and smoking are considered; we posed the following questions. Is pigmentation a confounding, causal or predictive factor? Is there perhaps another factor, like smoking, that confounds? Is there a synergy between pigmentation and smoking? The results, in terms of prediction, are similar with the two techniques; regarding causation, differences arise. We conclude that, in decision-making, the sum of both: a statistical tool, used with common sense, and previous evidence, taking years or even centuries to develop; is better than the automatic and exclusive use of statistical resources.

  5. Bayesian statistics in environmental engineering planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Englehardt, J.D.; Simon, T.W.

    1999-07-01

    Today's engineer must be able to quantify both uncertainty due to information limitations, and the variability of natural processes, in order to determine risk. Nowhere is this emphasis on risk assessment more evident than in environmental engineering. The use of Bayesian inference for the rigorous assessment of risk based on available information is reviewed in this paper. Several example environmental engineering planning applications are presented: (1) assessment of losses involving the evaluation of proposed revisions to the South Florida Building Code after Hurricane Andrew; (2) development of a model to predict oil spill consequences due to proposed changes in the oil transportation network in the Gulf of Mexico; (3) studies of ambient concentrations of perchloroethylene surrounding dry cleaners and of tire particulates in residential areas near roadways in Miami, FL; (4) risk assessment from contaminated soils at a cleanup of an old transformer dump site.

  6. A Review of the Bayesian Occupancy Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Saval-Calvo

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Autonomous vehicle systems are currently the object of intense research within scientific and industrial communities; however, many problems remain to be solved. One of the most critical aspects addressed in both autonomous driving and robotics is environment perception, since it consists of the ability to understand the surroundings of the vehicle to estimate risks and make decisions on future movements. In recent years, the Bayesian Occupancy Filter (BOF method has been developed to evaluate occupancy by tessellation of the environment. A review of the BOF and its variants is presented in this paper. Moreover, we propose a detailed taxonomy where the BOF is decomposed into five progressive layers, from the level closest to the sensor to the highest abstractlevelofriskassessment. Inaddition,wepresentastudyofimplementedusecasestoprovide a practical understanding on the main uses of the BOF and its taxonomy.

  7. Modelling crime linkage with Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Zoete, Jacob; Sjerps, Marjan; Lagnado, David; Fenton, Norman

    2015-05-01

    When two or more crimes show specific similarities, such as a very distinct modus operandi, the probability that they were committed by the same offender becomes of interest. This probability depends on the degree of similarity and distinctiveness. We show how Bayesian networks can be used to model different evidential structures that can occur when linking crimes, and how they assist in understanding the complex underlying dependencies. That is, how evidence that is obtained in one case can be used in another and vice versa. The flip side of this is that the intuitive decision to "unlink" a case in which exculpatory evidence is obtained leads to serious overestimation of the strength of the remaining cases. Copyright © 2014 Forensic Science Society. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Numerical Methods for Bayesian Inverse Problems

    KAUST Repository

    Ernst, Oliver

    2014-01-06

    We present recent results on Bayesian inversion for a groundwater flow problem with an uncertain conductivity field. In particular, we show how direct and indirect measurements can be used to obtain a stochastic model for the unknown. The main tool here is Bayes’ theorem which merges the indirect data with the stochastic prior model for the conductivity field obtained by the direct measurements. Further, we demonstrate how the resulting posterior distribution of the quantity of interest, in this case travel times of radionuclide contaminants, can be obtained by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Moreover, we investigate new, promising MCMC methods which exploit geometrical features of the posterior and which are suited to infinite dimensions.

  9. Bayesian reasoning in HEP principles and applications

    CERN Document Server

    D'Agostini, Giulio

    1998-01-01

    Bayesian statistics associate the idea of probability-the measure of the degree of belief that an event will occur - to the lack of knowledge, as it is commonly perceived intuitively. The Bayes' theorem becomes then the basic tool to evaluate the probability, combining (a priori) judgement and experimental information. This approach allows to treat in a logically consistent way all kinds of uncertainty. The lessons will deal with uncertainty arising from measurements: inference on the value of a physics quantity from experimental observations (examining in depth the cases of observations following Gaussian, binomialand poisson distributions); combinations of results; upper/lower limits and their combination; hypothesis tests versus probabilities of the hypotheses; systematic errors and the correlations they induce; simplified methods for routine applications (by-passing the explicit use of Bayes' theorem); type A and type B uncertainties (according to BIPM/ISO recovery of many standard methods, but deeping th...

  10. Safety culture in Bayesian and legal contexts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krug, H.E.P. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    While contemplating the similarities between the law of torts and concepts of safety, the author realized that there was a close correspondence between the law of negligence and the way safety ought to be generally defined. This definition of safety is provided herein. A safety culture must have an adequate definition of safety in order to function most effectively. This paper provides a practical definition of safety that answers the question 'How safe is safe enough? The development rests on two bases: the subjectivistic-Bayesian definition of probability and certain legal definitions primarily from the tort law of negligence. The development also leads to the conclusion that one cannot generally expect greater specificity in determining how safe is safe enough than one finds in the legal definition of liability under the tort of negligence. It then follows that some of the public's aversion to complex technical undertakings is rooted in its typically intuitive and vague notions concerning safety

  11. Bayesian multitask classification with Gaussian process priors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skolidis, Grigorios; Sanguinetti, Guido

    2011-12-01

    We present a novel approach to multitask learning in classification problems based on Gaussian process (GP) classification. The method extends previous work on multitask GP regression, constraining the overall covariance (across tasks and data points) to factorize as a Kronecker product. Fully Bayesian inference is possible but time consuming using sampling techniques. We propose approximations based on the popular variational Bayes and expectation propagation frameworks, showing that they both achieve excellent accuracy when compared to Gibbs sampling, in a fraction of time. We present results on a toy dataset and two real datasets, showing improved performance against the baseline results obtained by learning each task independently. We also compare with a recently proposed state-of-the-art approach based on support vector machines, obtaining comparable or better results.

  12. A Predictive Likelihood Approach to Bayesian Averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Jeřábek

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Multivariate time series forecasting is applied in a wide range of economic activities related to regional competitiveness and is the basis of almost all macroeconomic analysis. In this paper we combine multivariate density forecasts of GDP growth, inflation and real interest rates from four various models, two type of Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR models, a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE model of small open economy and DSGE-VAR model. The performance of models is identified using historical dates including domestic economy and foreign economy, which is represented by countries of the Eurozone. Because forecast accuracy of observed models are different, the weighting scheme based on the predictive likelihood, the trace of past MSE matrix, model ranks are used to combine the models. The equal-weight scheme is used as a simple combination scheme. The results show that optimally combined densities are comparable to the best individual models.

  13. Handbook of Bayesian reliability estimation methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martz, H.F. Jr.; Waller, R.A.

    1976-11-01

    Bayesian reliability estimation methods are summarized in a handbook format for convenient use by reliability practitioners. The methods given consider both attribute test data based on a binomial sampling distribution and a beta prior, as well as variables test data from an exponential sampling distribution and a gamma prior. Classical, Bayes, and empirical Bayes methods are all considered. In addition, the sample test data can arise from either an item-censored life test, either with or without the replacement of failed items as they occur, or from a time-truncated life test with replacement. Real-data examples using nuclear reactor component failure data are used to illustrate each of the methods presented

  14. Bayesian exploration for intelligent identification of textures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeremy A. Fishel

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to endow robots with humanlike abilities to characterize and identify objects, they must be provided with tactile sensors and intelligent algorithms to select, control and interpret data from useful exploratory movements. Humans make informed decisions on the sequence of exploratory movements that would yield the most information for the task, depending on what the object may be and prior knowledge of what to expect from possible exploratory movements. This study is focused on texture discrimination, a subset of a much larger group of exploratory movements and percepts that humans use to discriminate, characterize, and identify objects. Using a testbed equipped with a biologically inspired tactile sensor (the BioTac® we produced sliding movements similar to those that humans make when exploring textures. Measurement of tactile vibrations and reaction forces when exploring textures were used to extract measures of textural properties inspired from psychophysical literature (traction, roughness, and fineness. Different combinations of normal force and velocity were identified to be useful for each of these three properties. A total of 117 textures were explored with these three movements to create a database of prior experience to use for identifying these same textures in future encounters. When exploring a texture, the discrimination algorithm adaptively selects the optimal movement to make and property to measure based on previous experience to differentiate the texture from a set of plausible candidates, a process we call Bayesian exploration. Performance of 99.6% in correctly discriminating pairs of similar textures was found to exceed human capabilities. Absolute classification from the entire set of 117 textures generally required a small number of well-chosen exploratory movements (median=5 and yielded a 95.4% success rate. The method of Bayesian exploration developed and tested in this paper may generalize well to other

  15. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drummond, Alexei J; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-07-19

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth-death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the 'morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using

  16. MERGING DIGITAL SURFACE MODELS IMPLEMENTING BAYESIAN APPROACHES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sadeq

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this research different DSMs from different sources have been merged. The merging is based on a probabilistic model using a Bayesian Approach. The implemented data have been sourced from very high resolution satellite imagery sensors (e.g. WorldView-1 and Pleiades. It is deemed preferable to use a Bayesian Approach when the data obtained from the sensors are limited and it is difficult to obtain many measurements or it would be very costly, thus the problem of the lack of data can be solved by introducing a priori estimations of data. To infer the prior data, it is assumed that the roofs of the buildings are specified as smooth, and for that purpose local entropy has been implemented. In addition to the a priori estimations, GNSS RTK measurements have been collected in the field which are used as check points to assess the quality of the DSMs and to validate the merging result. The model has been applied in the West-End of Glasgow containing different kinds of buildings, such as flat roofed and hipped roofed buildings. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have been employed to validate the merged DSM. The validation results have shown that the model was successfully able to improve the quality of the DSMs and improving some characteristics such as the roof surfaces, which consequently led to better representations. In addition to that, the developed model has been compared with the well established Maximum Likelihood model and showed similar quantitative statistical results and better qualitative results. Although the proposed model has been applied on DSMs that were derived from satellite imagery, it can be applied to any other sourced DSMs.

  17. Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, K. R.

    2018-03-01

    The Bayesian approach allows an intuitive way to derive the methods of statistics. Probability is defined as a measure of the plausibility of statements or propositions. Three rules are sufficient to obtain the laws of probability. If the statements refer to the numerical values of variables, the so-called random variables, univariate and multivariate distributions follow. They lead to the point estimation by which unknown quantities, i.e. unknown parameters, are computed from measurements. The unknown parameters are random variables, they are fixed quantities in traditional statistics which is not founded on Bayes' theorem. Bayesian statistics therefore recommends itself for Monte Carlo methods, which generate random variates from given distributions. Monte Carlo methods, of course, can also be applied in traditional statistics. The unknown parameters, are introduced as functions of the measurements, and the Monte Carlo methods give the covariance matrix and the expectation of these functions. A confidence region is derived where the unknown parameters are situated with a given probability. Following a method of traditional statistics, hypotheses are tested by determining whether a value for an unknown parameter lies inside or outside the confidence region. The error propagation of a random vector by the Monte Carlo methods is presented as an application. If the random vector results from a nonlinearly transformed vector, its covariance matrix and its expectation follow from the Monte Carlo estimate. This saves a considerable amount of derivatives to be computed, and errors of the linearization are avoided. The Monte Carlo method is therefore efficient. If the functions of the measurements are given by a sum of two or more random vectors with different multivariate distributions, the resulting distribution is generally not known. TheMonte Carlo methods are then needed to obtain the covariance matrix and the expectation of the sum.

  18. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drummond, Alexei J.; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-01-01

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth–death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the ‘morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences

  19. MEMS Integrated Submount Alignment for Optoelectronics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakespeare, W. Jeffrey; Pearson, Raymond A.; Grenestedt, Joachim L.; Hutapea, Parsaoran; Gupta, Vikas

    2005-02-01

    One of the most expensive and time-consuming production processes for single-mode fiber-optic components is the alignment of the photonic chip or waveguide to the fiber. The alignment equipment is capital intensive and usually requires trained technicians to achieve desired results. Current technology requires active alignment since tolerances are only ~0.2 μ m or less for a typical laser diode. This is accomplished using piezoelectric actuated stages and active optical feedback. Joining technologies such as soldering, epoxy bonding, or laser welding may contribute significant postbond shift, and final coupling efficiencies are often less than 80%. This paper presents a method of adaptive optical alignment to freeze in place directly on an optical submount using a microelectromechanical system (MEMS) shape memory alloy (SMA) actuation technology. Postbond shift is eliminated since the phase change is the alignment actuation. This technology is not limited to optical alignment but can be applied to a variety of MEMS actuations, including nano-actuation and nano-alignment for biomedical applications. Experimental proof-of-concept results are discussed, and a simple analytical model is proposed to predict the stress strain behavior of the optical submount. Optical coupling efficiencies and alignment times are compared with traditional processes. The feasibility of this technique in high-volume production is discussed.

  20. Ergodic Interference Alignment with Delayed Feedback

    OpenAIRE

    Kang, Myung Gil; Choi, Wan

    2013-01-01

    We propose new ergodic interference alignment techniques for $K$-user interference channels with delayed feedback. Two delayed feedback scenarios are considered -- delayed channel information at transmitter (CIT) and delayed output feedback. It is proved that the proposed techniques achieve total $2K/(K+2)$ DoF which is higher than that by the retrospective interference alignment for the delayed feedback scenarios.