WorldWideScience

Sample records for bias statistics

  1. Bias expansion of spatial statistics and approximation of differenced ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Investigations of spatial statistics, computed from lattice data in the plane, can lead to a special lattice point counting problem. The statistical goal is to expand the asymptotic expectation or large-sample bias of certain spatial covariance estimators, where this bias typically depends on the shape of a spatial sampling region.

  2. Statistical methods for accurately determining criticality code bias

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trumble, E.F.; Kimball, K.D.

    1997-01-01

    A system of statistically treating validation calculations for the purpose of determining computer code bias is provided in this paper. The following statistical treatments are described: weighted regression analysis, lower tolerance limit, lower tolerance band, and lower confidence band. These methods meet the criticality code validation requirements of ANS 8.1. 8 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs

  3. Reducing bias in the analysis of counting statistics data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammersley, A.P.; Antoniadis, A.

    1997-01-01

    In the analysis of counting statistics data it is common practice to estimate the variance of the measured data points as the data points themselves. This practice introduces a bias into the results of further analysis which may be significant, and under certain circumstances lead to false conclusions. In the case of normal weighted least squares fitting this bias is quantified and methods to avoid it are proposed. (orig.)

  4. Bias expansion of spatial statistics and approximation of differenced ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Our goal here is to describe and illustrate the general counting problem of inter- .... A great amount of literature exists in number theory and enumerative ..... series setting, similar consideration has been given to determine bias and mean ...

  5. Incorporating circulation statistics in bias correction of GCM ensembles: Hydrological application for the Rhine basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Photiadou, C.; van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Delden, A. van; Weerts, A.

    2016-01-01

    An adapted statistical bias correction method is introduced to incorporate circulation-dependence of the model precipitation bias, and its influence on estimated discharges for the Rhine basin is analyzed for a historical period. The bias correction method is tailored to time scales relevant to

  6. Incorporating circulation statistics in bias correction of GCM ensembles: hydrological application for the Rhine basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Photiadou, C.; Hurk, van den B.; Delden, van A.; Weerts, A.H.

    2016-01-01

    An adapted statistical bias correction method is introduced to incorporate circulation-dependence of the model precipitation bias, and its influence on estimated discharges for the Rhine basin is analyzed for a historical period. The bias correction method is tailored to time scales relevant to

  7. Incorporating circulation statistics in bias correction of GCM ensembles: hydrological application for the Rhine basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Photiadou, Christiana; van den Hurk, Bart; van Delden, Aarnout; Weerts, Albrecht

    2015-01-01

    An adapted statistical bias correction method is introduced to incorporate circulation-dependence of the model precipitation bias, and its influence on estimated discharges for the Rhine basin is analyzed for a histori- cal period. The bias correction method is tailored to time scales relevant to

  8. Possible Solution to Publication Bias Through Bayesian Statistics, Including Proper Null Hypothesis Testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Konijn, Elly A.; van de Schoot, Rens; Winter, Sonja D.; Ferguson, Christopher J.

    2015-01-01

    The present paper argues that an important cause of publication bias resides in traditional frequentist statistics forcing binary decisions. An alternative approach through Bayesian statistics provides various degrees of support for any hypothesis allowing balanced decisions and proper null

  9. Statistical Bias in Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Item Parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-04-01

    34 a> E r’r~e r ,C Ie I# ne,..,.rVi rnd Id.,flfv b1 - bindk numb.r) I; ,t-i i-cd I ’ tiie bias in the maximum likelihood ,st i- i;, ’ t iIeiIrs in...NTC, IL 60088 Psychometric Laboratory University of North Carolina I ERIC Facility-Acquisitions Davie Hall 013A 4833 Rugby Avenue Chapel Hill, NC

  10. Correction of Selection Bias in Survey Data: Is the Statistical Cure Worse Than the Bias?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanley, James A

    2017-04-01

    In previous articles in the American Journal of Epidemiology (Am J Epidemiol. 2013;177(5):431-442) and American Journal of Public Health (Am J Public Health. 2013;103(10):1895-1901), Masters et al. reported age-specific hazard ratios for the contrasts in mortality rates between obesity categories. They corrected the observed hazard ratios for selection bias caused by what they postulated was the nonrepresentativeness of the participants in the National Health Interview Study that increased with age, obesity, and ill health. However, it is possible that their regression approach to remove the alleged bias has not produced, and in general cannot produce, sensible hazard ratio estimates. First, we must consider how many nonparticipants there might have been in each category of obesity and of age at entry and how much higher the mortality rates would have to be in nonparticipants than in participants in these same categories. What plausible set of numerical values would convert the ("biased") decreasing-with-age hazard ratios seen in the data into the ("unbiased") increasing-with-age ratios that they computed? Can these values be encapsulated in (and can sensible values be recovered from) one additional internal variable in a regression model? Second, one must examine the age pattern of the hazard ratios that have been adjusted for selection. Without the correction, the hazard ratios are attenuated with increasing age. With it, the hazard ratios at older ages are considerably higher, but those at younger ages are well below one. Third, one must test whether the regression approach suggested by Masters et al. would correct the nonrepresentativeness that increased with age and ill health that I introduced into real and hypothetical data sets. I found that the approach did not recover the hazard ratio patterns present in the unselected data sets: the corrections overshot the target at older ages and undershot it at lower ages.

  11. Bias in iterative reconstruction of low-statistics PET data: benefits of a resolution model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walker, M D; Asselin, M-C; Julyan, P J; Feldmann, M; Matthews, J C [School of Cancer and Enabling Sciences, Wolfson Molecular Imaging Centre, MAHSC, University of Manchester, Manchester M20 3LJ (United Kingdom); Talbot, P S [Mental Health and Neurodegeneration Research Group, Wolfson Molecular Imaging Centre, MAHSC, University of Manchester, Manchester M20 3LJ (United Kingdom); Jones, T, E-mail: matthew.walker@manchester.ac.uk [Academic Department of Radiation Oncology, Christie Hospital, University of Manchester, Manchester M20 4BX (United Kingdom)

    2011-02-21

    Iterative image reconstruction methods such as ordered-subset expectation maximization (OSEM) are widely used in PET. Reconstructions via OSEM are however reported to be biased for low-count data. We investigated this and considered the impact for dynamic PET. Patient listmode data were acquired in [{sup 11}C]DASB and [{sup 15}O]H{sub 2}O scans on the HRRT brain PET scanner. These data were subsampled to create many independent, low-count replicates. The data were reconstructed and the images from low-count data were compared to the high-count originals (from the same reconstruction method). This comparison enabled low-statistics bias to be calculated for the given reconstruction, as a function of the noise-equivalent counts (NEC). Two iterative reconstruction methods were tested, one with and one without an image-based resolution model (RM). Significant bias was observed when reconstructing data of low statistical quality, for both subsampled human and simulated data. For human data, this bias was substantially reduced by including a RM. For [{sup 11}C]DASB the low-statistics bias in the caudate head at 1.7 M NEC (approx. 30 s) was -5.5% and -13% with and without RM, respectively. We predicted biases in the binding potential of -4% and -10%. For quantification of cerebral blood flow for the whole-brain grey- or white-matter, using [{sup 15}O]H{sub 2}O and the PET autoradiographic method, a low-statistics bias of <2.5% and <4% was predicted for reconstruction with and without the RM. The use of a resolution model reduces low-statistics bias and can hence be beneficial for quantitative dynamic PET.

  12. New method for eliminating the statistical bias in highly turbulent flow measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakao, S.I.; Terao, Y.; Hirata, K.I.; Kitakyushu Industrial Research Institute, Fukuoka, Japan)

    1987-01-01

    A simple method was developed for eliminating statistical bias which can be applied to highly turbulent flows with the sparse and nonuniform seeding conditions. Unlike the method proposed so far, a weighting function was determined based on the idea that the statistical bias could be eliminated if the asymmetric form of the probability density function of the velocity data were corrected. Moreover, the data more than three standard deviations away from the mean were discarded to remove the apparent turbulent intensity resulting from noise. The present method was applied to data obtained in the wake of a block, which provided local turbulent intensities up to about 120 percent, it was found to eliminate the statistical bias with high accuracy. 9 references

  13. Symmetries, invariants and generating functions: higher-order statistics of biased tracers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munshi, Dipak

    2018-01-01

    Gravitationally collapsed objects are known to be biased tracers of an underlying density contrast. Using symmetry arguments, generalised biasing schemes have recently been developed to relate the halo density contrast δh with the underlying density contrast δ, divergence of velocity θ and their higher-order derivatives. This is done by constructing invariants such as s, t, ψ,η. We show how the generating function formalism in Eulerian standard perturbation theory (SPT) can be used to show that many of the additional terms based on extended Galilean and Lifshitz symmetry actually do not make any contribution to the higher-order statistics of biased tracers. Other terms can also be drastically simplified allowing us to write the vertices associated with δh in terms of the vertices of δ and θ, the higher-order derivatives and the bias coefficients. We also compute the cumulant correlators (CCs) for two different tracer populations. These perturbative results are valid for tree-level contributions but at an arbitrary order. We also take into account the stochastic nature bias in our analysis. Extending previous results of a local polynomial model of bias, we express the one-point cumulants Script SN and their two-point counterparts, the CCs i.e. Script Cpq, of biased tracers in terms of that of their underlying density contrast counterparts. As a by-product of our calculation we also discuss the results using approximations based on Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT).

  14. Examining publication bias—a simulation-based evaluation of statistical tests on publication bias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Schneck

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background Publication bias is a form of scientific misconduct. It threatens the validity of research results and the credibility of science. Although several tests on publication bias exist, no in-depth evaluations are available that examine which test performs best for different research settings. Methods Four tests on publication bias, Egger’s test (FAT, p-uniform, the test of excess significance (TES, as well as the caliper test, were evaluated in a Monte Carlo simulation. Two different types of publication bias and its degree (0%, 50%, 100% were simulated. The type of publication bias was defined either as file-drawer, meaning the repeated analysis of new datasets, or p-hacking, meaning the inclusion of covariates in order to obtain a significant result. In addition, the underlying effect (β = 0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, effect heterogeneity, the number of observations in the simulated primary studies (N = 100, 500, and the number of observations for the publication bias tests (K = 100, 1,000 were varied. Results All tests evaluated were able to identify publication bias both in the file-drawer and p-hacking condition. The false positive rates were, with the exception of the 15%- and 20%-caliper test, unbiased. The FAT had the largest statistical power in the file-drawer conditions, whereas under p-hacking the TES was, except under effect heterogeneity, slightly better. The CTs were, however, inferior to the other tests under effect homogeneity and had a decent statistical power only in conditions with 1,000 primary studies. Discussion The FAT is recommended as a test for publication bias in standard meta-analyses with no or only small effect heterogeneity. If two-sided publication bias is suspected as well as under p-hacking the TES is the first alternative to the FAT. The 5%-caliper test is recommended under conditions of effect heterogeneity and a large number of primary studies, which may be found if publication bias is examined in a

  15. Statistical methods for elimination of guarantee-time bias in cohort studies: a simulation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    In Sung Cho

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Aspirin has been considered to be beneficial in preventing cardiovascular diseases and cancer. Several pharmaco-epidemiology cohort studies have shown protective effects of aspirin on diseases using various statistical methods, with the Cox regression model being the most commonly used approach. However, there are some inherent limitations to the conventional Cox regression approach such as guarantee-time bias, resulting in an overestimation of the drug effect. To overcome such limitations, alternative approaches, such as the time-dependent Cox model and landmark methods have been proposed. This study aimed to compare the performance of three methods: Cox regression, time-dependent Cox model and landmark method with different landmark times in order to address the problem of guarantee-time bias. Methods Through statistical modeling and simulation studies, the performance of the above three methods were assessed in terms of type I error, bias, power, and mean squared error (MSE. In addition, the three statistical approaches were applied to a real data example from the Korean National Health Insurance Database. Effect of cumulative rosiglitazone dose on the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma was used as an example for illustration. Results In the simulated data, time-dependent Cox regression outperformed the landmark method in terms of bias and mean squared error but the type I error rates were similar. The results from real-data example showed the same patterns as the simulation findings. Conclusions While both time-dependent Cox regression model and landmark analysis are useful in resolving the problem of guarantee-time bias, time-dependent Cox regression is the most appropriate method for analyzing cumulative dose effects in pharmaco-epidemiological studies.

  16. Codon Deviation Coefficient: A novel measure for estimating codon usage bias and its statistical significance

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Zhang

    2012-03-22

    Background: Genetic mutation, selective pressure for translational efficiency and accuracy, level of gene expression, and protein function through natural selection are all believed to lead to codon usage bias (CUB). Therefore, informative measurement of CUB is of fundamental importance to making inferences regarding gene function and genome evolution. However, extant measures of CUB have not fully accounted for the quantitative effect of background nucleotide composition and have not statistically evaluated the significance of CUB in sequence analysis.Results: Here we propose a novel measure--Codon Deviation Coefficient (CDC)--that provides an informative measurement of CUB and its statistical significance without requiring any prior knowledge. Unlike previous measures, CDC estimates CUB by accounting for background nucleotide compositions tailored to codon positions and adopts the bootstrapping to assess the statistical significance of CUB for any given sequence. We evaluate CDC by examining its effectiveness on simulated sequences and empirical data and show that CDC outperforms extant measures by achieving a more informative estimation of CUB and its statistical significance.Conclusions: As validated by both simulated and empirical data, CDC provides a highly informative quantification of CUB and its statistical significance, useful for determining comparative magnitudes and patterns of biased codon usage for genes or genomes with diverse sequence compositions. 2012 Zhang et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

  17. Codon Deviation Coefficient: a novel measure for estimating codon usage bias and its statistical significance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Zhang

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genetic mutation, selective pressure for translational efficiency and accuracy, level of gene expression, and protein function through natural selection are all believed to lead to codon usage bias (CUB. Therefore, informative measurement of CUB is of fundamental importance to making inferences regarding gene function and genome evolution. However, extant measures of CUB have not fully accounted for the quantitative effect of background nucleotide composition and have not statistically evaluated the significance of CUB in sequence analysis. Results Here we propose a novel measure--Codon Deviation Coefficient (CDC--that provides an informative measurement of CUB and its statistical significance without requiring any prior knowledge. Unlike previous measures, CDC estimates CUB by accounting for background nucleotide compositions tailored to codon positions and adopts the bootstrapping to assess the statistical significance of CUB for any given sequence. We evaluate CDC by examining its effectiveness on simulated sequences and empirical data and show that CDC outperforms extant measures by achieving a more informative estimation of CUB and its statistical significance. Conclusions As validated by both simulated and empirical data, CDC provides a highly informative quantification of CUB and its statistical significance, useful for determining comparative magnitudes and patterns of biased codon usage for genes or genomes with diverse sequence compositions.

  18. A question of separation: disentangling tracer bias and gravitational non-linearity with counts-in-cells statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uhlemann, C.; Feix, M.; Codis, S.; Pichon, C.; Bernardeau, F.; L'Huillier, B.; Kim, J.; Hong, S. E.; Laigle, C.; Park, C.; Shin, J.; Pogosyan, D.

    2018-02-01

    Starting from a very accurate model for density-in-cells statistics of dark matter based on large deviation theory, a bias model for the tracer density in spheres is formulated. It adopts a mean bias relation based on a quadratic bias model to relate the log-densities of dark matter to those of mass-weighted dark haloes in real and redshift space. The validity of the parametrized bias model is established using a parametrization-independent extraction of the bias function. This average bias model is then combined with the dark matter PDF, neglecting any scatter around it: it nevertheless yields an excellent model for densities-in-cells statistics of mass tracers that is parametrized in terms of the underlying dark matter variance and three bias parameters. The procedure is validated on measurements of both the one- and two-point statistics of subhalo densities in the state-of-the-art Horizon Run 4 simulation showing excellent agreement for measured dark matter variance and bias parameters. Finally, it is demonstrated that this formalism allows for a joint estimation of the non-linear dark matter variance and the bias parameters using solely the statistics of subhaloes. Having verified that galaxy counts in hydrodynamical simulations sampled on a scale of 10 Mpc h-1 closely resemble those of subhaloes, this work provides important steps towards making theoretical predictions for density-in-cells statistics applicable to upcoming galaxy surveys like Euclid or WFIRST.

  19. Evaluating anemometer drift: A statistical approach to correct biases in wind speed measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Asin, Jesus; McVicar, Tim R.; Minola, Lorenzo; Lopez-Moreno, Juan I.; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Chen, Deliang

    2018-05-01

    Recent studies on observed wind variability have revealed a decline (termed "stilling") of near-surface wind speed during the last 30-50 years over many mid-latitude terrestrial regions, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. The well-known impact of cup anemometer drift (i.e., wear on the bearings) on the observed weakening of wind speed has been mentioned as a potential contributor to the declining trend. However, to date, no research has quantified its contribution to stilling based on measurements, which is most likely due to lack of quantification of the ageing effect. In this study, a 3-year field experiment (2014-2016) with 10-minute paired wind speed measurements from one new and one malfunctioned (i.e., old bearings) SEAC SV5 cup anemometer which has been used by the Spanish Meteorological Agency in automatic weather stations since mid-1980s, was developed for assessing for the first time the role of anemometer drift on wind speed measurement. The results showed a statistical significant impact of anemometer drift on wind speed measurements, with the old anemometer measuring lower wind speeds than the new one. Biases show a marked temporal pattern and clear dependency on wind speed, with both weak and strong winds causing significant biases. This pioneering quantification of biases has allowed us to define two regression models that correct up to 37% of the artificial bias in wind speed due to measurement with an old anemometer.

  20. Can bias correction and statistical downscaling methods improve the skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzanas, R.; Lucero, A.; Weisheimer, A.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

    2018-02-01

    Statistical downscaling methods are popular post-processing tools which are widely used in many sectors to adapt the coarse-resolution biased outputs from global climate simulations to the regional-to-local scale typically required by users. They range from simple and pragmatic Bias Correction (BC) methods, which directly adjust the model outputs of interest (e.g. precipitation) according to the available local observations, to more complex Perfect Prognosis (PP) ones, which indirectly derive local predictions (e.g. precipitation) from appropriate upper-air large-scale model variables (predictors). Statistical downscaling methods have been extensively used and critically assessed in climate change applications; however, their advantages and limitations in seasonal forecasting are not well understood yet. In particular, a key problem in this context is whether they serve to improve the forecast quality/skill of raw model outputs beyond the adjustment of their systematic biases. In this paper we analyze this issue by applying two state-of-the-art BC and two PP methods to downscale precipitation from a multimodel seasonal hindcast in a challenging tropical region, the Philippines. To properly assess the potential added value beyond the reduction of model biases, we consider two validation scores which are not sensitive to changes in the mean (correlation and reliability categories). Our results show that, whereas BC methods maintain or worsen the skill of the raw model forecasts, PP methods can yield significant skill improvement (worsening) in cases for which the large-scale predictor variables considered are better (worse) predicted by the model than precipitation. For instance, PP methods are found to increase (decrease) model reliability in nearly 40% of the stations considered in boreal summer (autumn). Therefore, the choice of a convenient downscaling approach (either BC or PP) depends on the region and the season.

  1. Detecting rater bias using a person-fit statistic: a Monte Carlo simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubin, André-Sébastien; St-Onge, Christina; Renaud, Jean-Sébastien

    2018-04-01

    With the Standards voicing concern for the appropriateness of response processes, we need to explore strategies that would allow us to identify inappropriate rater response processes. Although certain statistics can be used to help detect rater bias, their use is complicated by either a lack of data about their actual power to detect rater bias or the difficulty related to their application in the context of health professions education. This exploratory study aimed to establish the worthiness of pursuing the use of l z to detect rater bias. We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation study to investigate the power of a specific detection statistic, that is: the standardized likelihood l z person-fit statistics (PFS). Our primary outcome was the detection rate of biased raters, namely: raters whom we manipulated into being either stringent (giving lower scores) or lenient (giving higher scores), using the l z statistic while controlling for the number of biased raters in a sample (6 levels) and the rate of bias per rater (6 levels). Overall, stringent raters (M = 0.84, SD = 0.23) were easier to detect than lenient raters (M = 0.31, SD = 0.28). More biased raters were easier to detect then less biased raters (60% bias: 62, SD = 0.37; 10% bias: 43, SD = 0.36). The PFS l z seems to offer an interesting potential to identify biased raters. We observed detection rates as high as 90% for stringent raters, for whom we manipulated more than half their checklist. Although we observed very interesting results, we cannot generalize these results to the use of PFS with estimated item/station parameters or real data. Such studies should be conducted to assess the feasibility of using PFS to identify rater bias.

  2. Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; Silander, John; Wilson, Adam M.; Allen, Jenica M.; Horton, Radley; Anyah, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1/8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

  3. Affective bias as a rational response to the statistics of rewards and punishments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulcu, Erdem; Browning, Michael

    2017-10-04

    Affective bias, the tendency to differentially prioritise the processing of negative relative to positive events, is commonly observed in clinical and non-clinical populations. However, why such biases develop is not known. Using a computational framework, we investigated whether affective biases may reflect individuals' estimates of the information content of negative relative to positive events. During a reinforcement learning task, the information content of positive and negative outcomes was manipulated independently by varying the volatility of their occurrence. Human participants altered the learning rates used for the outcomes selectively, preferentially learning from the most informative. This behaviour was associated with activity of the central norepinephrine system, estimated using pupilometry, for loss outcomes. Humans maintain independent estimates of the information content of distinct positive and negative outcomes which may bias their processing of affective events. Normalising affective biases using computationally inspired interventions may represent a novel approach to treatment development.

  4. Statistical bias correction modelling for seasonal rainfall forecast for the case of Bali island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lealdi, D.; Nurdiati, S.; Sopaheluwakan, A.

    2018-04-01

    Rainfall is an element of climate which is highly influential to the agricultural sector. Rain pattern and distribution highly determines the sustainability of agricultural activities. Therefore, information on rainfall is very useful for agriculture sector and farmers in anticipating the possibility of extreme events which often cause failures of agricultural production. This research aims to identify the biases from seasonal forecast products from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) rainfall forecast and to build a transfer function in order to correct the distribution biases as a new prediction model using quantile mapping approach. We apply this approach to the case of Bali Island, and as a result, the use of bias correction methods in correcting systematic biases from the model gives better results. The new prediction model obtained with this approach is better than ever. We found generally that during rainy season, the bias correction approach performs better than in dry season.

  5. Modular reweighting software for statistical mechanical analysis of biased equilibrium data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sindhikara, Daniel J.

    2012-07-01

    Here a simple, useful, modular approach and software suite designed for statistical reweighting and analysis of equilibrium ensembles is presented. Statistical reweighting is useful and sometimes necessary for analysis of equilibrium enhanced sampling methods, such as umbrella sampling or replica exchange, and also in experimental cases where biasing factors are explicitly known. Essentially, statistical reweighting allows extrapolation of data from one or more equilibrium ensembles to another. Here, the fundamental separable steps of statistical reweighting are broken up into modules - allowing for application to the general case and avoiding the black-box nature of some “all-inclusive” reweighting programs. Additionally, the programs included are, by-design, written with little dependencies. The compilers required are either pre-installed on most systems, or freely available for download with minimal trouble. Examples of the use of this suite applied to umbrella sampling and replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations will be shown along with advice on how to apply it in the general case. New version program summaryProgram title: Modular reweighting version 2 Catalogue identifier: AEJH_v2_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEJH_v2_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: GNU General Public License, version 3 No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 179 118 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 8 518 178 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: C++, Python 2.6+, Perl 5+ Computer: Any Operating system: Any RAM: 50-500 MB Supplementary material: An updated version of the original manuscript (Comput. Phys. Commun. 182 (2011) 2227) is available Classification: 4.13 Catalogue identifier of previous version: AEJH_v1_0 Journal reference of previous version: Comput. Phys. Commun. 182 (2011) 2227 Does the new

  6. Implementing a generic method for bias correction in statistical models using random effects, with spatial and population dynamics examples

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorson, James T.; Kristensen, Kasper

    2016-01-01

    Statistical models play an important role in fisheries science when reconciling ecological theory with available data for wild populations or experimental studies. Ecological models increasingly include both fixed and random effects, and are often estimated using maximum likelihood techniques...... configurations of an age-structured population dynamics model. This simulation experiment shows that the epsilon-method and the existing bias-correction method perform equally well in data-rich contexts, but the epsilon-method is slightly less biased in data-poor contexts. We then apply the epsilon......-method to a spatial regression model when estimating an index of population abundance, and compare results with an alternative bias-correction algorithm that involves Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling. This example shows that the epsilon-method leads to a biologically significant difference in estimates of average...

  7. Researchers' Perceptions of Statistical Significance Contribute to Bias in Health and Exercise Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, Taylor L.; Lohse, Keith R.

    2016-01-01

    We surveyed researchers in the health and exercise sciences to explore different areas and magnitudes of bias in researchers' decision making. Participants were presented with scenarios (testing a central hypothesis with p = 0.06 or p = 0.04) in a random order and surveyed about what they would do in each scenario. Participants showed significant…

  8. Statistical study on the self-selection bias in FDG-PET cancer screening by a questionnaire survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kita, Tamotsu; Yano, Fuzuki; Watanabe, Sadahiro; Soga, Shigeyoshi; Hama, Yukihiro; Shinmoto, Hiroshi; Kosuda, Shigeru

    2008-01-01

    A questionnaire survey was performed to investigate the possible presence of self-selection bias in 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) cancer screening (PET cancer screening). Responders to the questionnaires survey consisted of 80 healthy persons, who answered whether they undergo PET cancer screening, health consciousness, age, sex, and smoking history. The univariate and multivariate analyses on the four parameters were performed between the responders who were to undergo PET cancer screening and the responders who were not. Statistically significant difference was found in health consciousness between the above-mentioned two groups by both univariate and multivariate analysis with the odds ratio of 2.088. The study indicated that self-selection bias should exist in PET cancer screening. (author)

  9. The Use of Official Statistics in Self-Selection Bias Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dalla Valle Luciana

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Official statistics are a fundamental source of publicly available information that periodically provides a great amount of data on all major areas of citizens’ lives, such as economics, social development, education, and the environment. However, these extraordinary sources of information are often neglected, especially by business and industrial statisticians. In particular, data collected from small businesses, like small and medium-sized enterprizes (SMEs, are rarely integrated with official statistics data.

  10. Biases and statistical errors in Monte Carlo burnup calculations: an unbiased stochastic scheme to solve Boltzmann/Bateman coupled equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumonteil, E.; Diop, C.M.

    2011-01-01

    External linking scripts between Monte Carlo transport codes and burnup codes, and complete integration of burnup capability into Monte Carlo transport codes, have been or are currently being developed. Monte Carlo linked burnup methodologies may serve as an excellent benchmark for new deterministic burnup codes used for advanced systems; however, there are some instances where deterministic methodologies break down (i.e., heavily angularly biased systems containing exotic materials without proper group structure) and Monte Carlo burn up may serve as an actual design tool. Therefore, researchers are also developing these capabilities in order to examine complex, three-dimensional exotic material systems that do not contain benchmark data. Providing a reference scheme implies being able to associate statistical errors to any neutronic value of interest like k(eff), reaction rates, fluxes, etc. Usually in Monte Carlo, standard deviations are associated with a particular value by performing different independent and identical simulations (also referred to as 'cycles', 'batches', or 'replicas'), but this is only valid if the calculation itself is not biased. And, as will be shown in this paper, there is a bias in the methodology that consists of coupling transport and depletion codes because Bateman equations are not linear functions of the fluxes or of the reaction rates (those quantities being always measured with an uncertainty). Therefore, we have to quantify and correct this bias. This will be achieved by deriving an unbiased minimum variance estimator of a matrix exponential function of a normal mean. The result is then used to propose a reference scheme to solve Boltzmann/Bateman coupled equations, thanks to Monte Carlo transport codes. Numerical tests will be performed with an ad hoc Monte Carlo code on a very simple depletion case and will be compared to the theoretical results obtained with the reference scheme. Finally, the statistical error propagation

  11. Parameter optimization in biased decoy-state quantum key distribution with both source errors and statistical fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jian-Rong; Li, Jian; Zhang, Chun-Mei; Wang, Qin

    2017-10-01

    The decoy-state method has been widely used in commercial quantum key distribution (QKD) systems. In view of the practical decoy-state QKD with both source errors and statistical fluctuations, we propose a universal model of full parameter optimization in biased decoy-state QKD with phase-randomized sources. Besides, we adopt this model to carry out simulations of two widely used sources: weak coherent source (WCS) and heralded single-photon source (HSPS). Results show that full parameter optimization can significantly improve not only the secure transmission distance but also the final key generation rate. And when taking source errors and statistical fluctuations into account, the performance of decoy-state QKD using HSPS suffered less than that of decoy-state QKD using WCS.

  12. Toward a Better Understanding of the Relationship between Belief in the Paranormal and Statistical Bias: The Potential Role of Schizotypy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagnall, Neil; Denovan, Andrew; Drinkwater, Kenneth; Parker, Andrew; Clough, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The present paper examined relationships between schizotypy (measured by the Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experience; O-LIFE scale brief), belief in the paranormal (assessed via the Revised Paranormal Belief Scale; RPBS) and proneness to statistical bias (i.e., perception of randomness and susceptibility to conjunction fallacy). Participants were 254 volunteers recruited via convenience sampling. Probabilistic reasoning problems appeared framed within both standard and paranormal contexts. Analysis revealed positive correlations between the Unusual Experience (UnExp) subscale of O-LIFE and paranormal belief measures [RPBS full scale, traditional paranormal beliefs (TPB) and new age philosophy]. Performance on standard problems correlated negatively with UnExp and belief in the paranormal (particularly the TPB dimension of the RPBS). Consideration of specific problem types revealed that perception of randomness associated more strongly with belief in the paranormal than conjunction; both problem types related similarly to UnExp. Structural equation modeling specified that belief in the paranormal mediated the indirect relationship between UnExp and statistical bias. For problems presented in a paranormal context a framing effect occurred. Whilst UnExp correlated positively with conjunction proneness (controlling for perception of randomness), there was no association between UnExp and perception of randomness (controlling for conjunction).

  13. Towards a better understanding of the relationship between belief in the paranormal and statistical bias: The potential role of schizotypy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Dagnall

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The present paper examined relationships between schizotypy (measured by the Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experience; O-LIFE scale brief, belief in the paranormal (assessed via the Revised Paranormal Belief Scale; RPBS and proneness to statistical bias (i.e., perception of randomness and susceptibility to conjunction fallacy. Participants were 254 volunteers recruited via convenience sampling. Probabilistic reasoning problems appeared framed within both standard and paranormal contexts. Analysis revealed positive correlations between the Unusual Experience subscale of O-LIFE and paranormal belief measures (RPBS full scale, traditional paranormal beliefs and new age philosophy. Performance on standard problems correlated negatively with Unusual Experience and belief in the paranormal (particularly the traditional paranormal belief dimension of the RPBS. Consideration of specific problem types revealed that perception of randomness associated more strongly with belief in the paranormal than conjunction; both problem types related similarly to Unusual Experience. Structural equation modelling specified that belief in the paranormal mediated the indirect relationship between Unusual Experience and statistical bias. For problems presented in a paranormal context a framing effect occurred. Whilst Unusual Experience correlated positively with conjunction proneness (controlling for perception of randomness, there was no association between Unusual Experience and perception of randomness (controlling for conjunction.

  14. The Use of Official Statistics in Self-Selection Bias Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Dalla Valle, L

    2016-01-01

    Official statistics are a fundamental source of publicly available information that periodically provides a great amount of data on all major areas of citizens’ lives, such as economics, social development, education, and the environment. However, these extraordinary sources of information are often neglected, especially by business and industrial statisticians. In particular, data collected from small businesses, like small and medium-sized enterprizes (SMEs), are rarely integrated with offi...

  15. Statistical methods to correct for verification bias in diagnostic studies are inadequate when there are few false negatives: a simulation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vickers Andrew J

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A common feature of diagnostic research is that results for a diagnostic gold standard are available primarily for patients who are positive for the test under investigation. Data from such studies are subject to what has been termed "verification bias". We evaluated statistical methods for verification bias correction when there are few false negatives. Methods A simulation study was conducted of a screening study subject to verification bias. We compared estimates of the area-under-the-curve (AUC corrected for verification bias varying both the rate and mechanism of verification. Results In a single simulated data set, varying false negatives from 0 to 4 led to verification bias corrected AUCs ranging from 0.550 to 0.852. Excess variation associated with low numbers of false negatives was confirmed in simulation studies and by analyses of published studies that incorporated verification bias correction. The 2.5th – 97.5th centile range constituted as much as 60% of the possible range of AUCs for some simulations. Conclusion Screening programs are designed such that there are few false negatives. Standard statistical methods for verification bias correction are inadequate in this circumstance.

  16. Dynamically biased statistical model for the ortho/para conversion in the H2 + H3+ → H3+ + H2 reaction

    OpenAIRE

    Gómez-Carrasco, Susana; González-Sánchez, Lola; Aguado, Alfredo; Sanz-Sanz, Cristina; Zanchet, Alexandre; Roncero, Octavio

    2012-01-01

    In this work we present a dynamically biased statistical model to describe the evolution of the title reaction from statistical to a more direct mechanism, using quasi-classical trajectories (QCT). The method is based on the one previously proposed by Park and Light [J. Chem. Phys. 126, 044305 (2007)10.1063/1.2430711]. A recent global potential energy surface is used here to calculate the capture probabilities, instead of the long-range ion-induced dipole interactions. The dynamical constrain...

  17. Bias, precision and statistical power of analysis of covariance in the analysis of randomized trials with baseline imbalance: a simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Analysis of variance (ANOVA), change-score analysis (CSA) and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) respond differently to baseline imbalance in randomized controlled trials. However, no empirical studies appear to have quantified the differential bias and precision of estimates derived from these methods of analysis, and their relative statistical power, in relation to combinations of levels of key trial characteristics. This simulation study therefore examined the relative bias, precision and statistical power of these three analyses using simulated trial data. Methods 126 hypothetical trial scenarios were evaluated (126 000 datasets), each with continuous data simulated by using a combination of levels of: treatment effect; pretest-posttest correlation; direction and magnitude of baseline imbalance. The bias, precision and power of each method of analysis were calculated for each scenario. Results Compared to the unbiased estimates produced by ANCOVA, both ANOVA and CSA are subject to bias, in relation to pretest-posttest correlation and the direction of baseline imbalance. Additionally, ANOVA and CSA are less precise than ANCOVA, especially when pretest-posttest correlation ≥ 0.3. When groups are balanced at baseline, ANCOVA is at least as powerful as the other analyses. Apparently greater power of ANOVA and CSA at certain imbalances is achieved in respect of a biased treatment effect. Conclusions Across a range of correlations between pre- and post-treatment scores and at varying levels and direction of baseline imbalance, ANCOVA remains the optimum statistical method for the analysis of continuous outcomes in RCTs, in terms of bias, precision and statistical power. PMID:24712304

  18. The Use of a Statistical Model of Storm Surge as a Bias Correction for Dynamical Surge Models and its Applicability along the U.S. East Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haydee Salmun

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The present study extends the applicability of a statistical model for prediction of storm surge originally developed for The Battery, NY in two ways: I. the statistical model is used as a biascorrection for operationally produced dynamical surge forecasts, and II. the statistical model is applied to the region of the east coast of the U.S. susceptible to winter extratropical storms. The statistical prediction is based on a regression relation between the “storm maximum” storm surge and the storm composite significant wave height predicted ata nearby location. The use of the statistical surge prediction as an alternative bias correction for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA operational storm surge forecasts is shownhere to be statistically equivalent to the existing bias correctiontechnique and potentially applicable for much longer forecast lead times as well as for storm surge climate prediction. Applying the statistical model to locations along the east coast shows that the regression relation can be “trained” with data from tide gauge measurements and near-shore buoys along the coast from North Carolina to Maine, and that it provides accurate estimates of storm surge.

  19. Structure formation from non-Gaussian initial conditions: Multivariate biasing, statistics, and comparison with N-body simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giannantonio, Tommaso; Porciani, Cristiano

    2010-01-01

    We study structure formation in the presence of primordial non-Gaussianity of the local type with parameters f NL and g NL . We show that the distribution of dark-matter halos is naturally described by a multivariate bias scheme where the halo overdensity depends not only on the underlying matter density fluctuation δ but also on the Gaussian part of the primordial gravitational potential φ. This corresponds to a non-local bias scheme in terms of δ only. We derive the coefficients of the bias expansion as a function of the halo mass by applying the peak-background split to common parametrizations for the halo mass function in the non-Gaussian scenario. We then compute the halo power spectrum and halo-matter cross spectrum in the framework of Eulerian perturbation theory up to third order. Comparing our results against N-body simulations, we find that our model accurately describes the numerical data for wave numbers k≤0.1-0.3h Mpc -1 depending on redshift and halo mass. In our multivariate approach, perturbations in the halo counts trace φ on large scales, and this explains why the halo and matter power spectra show different asymptotic trends for k→0. This strongly scale-dependent bias originates from terms at leading order in our expansion. This is different from what happens using the standard univariate local bias where the scale-dependent terms come from badly behaved higher-order corrections. On the other hand, our biasing scheme reduces to the usual local bias on smaller scales, where |φ| is typically much smaller than the density perturbations. We finally discuss the halo bispectrum in the context of multivariate biasing and show that, due to its strong scale and shape dependence, it is a powerful tool for the detection of primordial non-Gaussianity from future galaxy surveys.

  20. Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Hayslett, H T

    1991-01-01

    Statistics covers the basic principles of Statistics. The book starts by tackling the importance and the two kinds of statistics; the presentation of sample data; the definition, illustration and explanation of several measures of location; and the measures of variation. The text then discusses elementary probability, the normal distribution and the normal approximation to the binomial. Testing of statistical hypotheses and tests of hypotheses about the theoretical proportion of successes in a binomial population and about the theoretical mean of a normal population are explained. The text the

  1. Sympathetic bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, David M; Peart, Sandra J

    2008-06-01

    We wish to deal with investigator bias in a statistical context. We sketch how a textbook solution to the problem of "outliers" which avoids one sort of investigator bias, creates the temptation for another sort. We write down a model of the approbation seeking statistician who is tempted by sympathy for client to violate the disciplinary standards. We give a simple account of one context in which we might expect investigator bias to flourish. Finally, we offer tentative suggestions to deal with the problem of investigator bias which follow from our account. As we have given a very sparse and stylized account of investigator bias, we ask what might be done to overcome this limitation.

  2. Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Links to sources of cancer-related statistics, including the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, SEER-Medicare datasets, cancer survivor prevalence data, and the Cancer Trends Progress Report.

  3. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    For the years 2004 and 2005 the figures shown in the tables of Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics published in Energy Review are presented in more detail in a publication called Energy Statistics that comes out yearly. Energy Statistics also includes historical time-series over a longer period of time (see e.g. Energy Statistics, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2004.) The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supplies and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2003, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2003, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes, precautionary stock fees and oil pollution fees

  4. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    For the year 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 1999, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2000, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions from the use of fossil fuels, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  5. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    For the year 1999 and 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g., Energiatilastot 1998, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 1999, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-March 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in January-March 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  6. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    For the year 1998 and the year 1999, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 1998, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 1999, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 1999, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 1999, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  7. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    For the year 2002, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics of the Energy Review also includes historical time-series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 2001, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2002). The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the inside back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supply and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2003, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2003, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Excise taxes, precautionary stock fees on oil pollution fees on energy products

  8. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    For the year 2003 and 2004, the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics of the Energy Review also includes historical time-series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2003, ISSN 0785-3165). The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the inside back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supplies and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-March 2004, Energy exports by recipient country in January-March 2004, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Excise taxes, precautionary stock fees on oil pollution fees

  9. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    For the year 1999 and 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g., Energiatilastot 1999, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2000, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  10. Dynamically biased statistical model for the ortho/para conversion in the H2 + H3+ → H3+ + H2 reaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Carrasco, Susana; González-Sánchez, Lola; Aguado, Alfredo; Sanz-Sanz, Cristina; Zanchet, Alexandre; Roncero, Octavio

    2012-09-07

    In this work we present a dynamically biased statistical model to describe the evolution of the title reaction from statistical to a more direct mechanism, using quasi-classical trajectories (QCT). The method is based on the one previously proposed by Park and Light [J. Chem. Phys. 126, 044305 (2007)]. A recent global potential energy surface is used here to calculate the capture probabilities, instead of the long-range ion-induced dipole interactions. The dynamical constraints are introduced by considering a scrambling matrix which depends on energy and determine the probability of the identity/hop/exchange mechanisms. These probabilities are calculated using QCT. It is found that the high zero-point energy of the fragments is transferred to the rest of the degrees of freedom, what shortens the lifetime of H(5)(+) complexes and, as a consequence, the exchange mechanism is produced with lower proportion. The zero-point energy (ZPE) is not properly described in quasi-classical trajectory calculations and an approximation is done in which the initial ZPE of the reactants is reduced in QCT calculations to obtain a new ZPE-biased scrambling matrix. This reduction of the ZPE is explained by the need of correcting the pure classical level number of the H(5)(+) complex, as done in classical simulations of unimolecular processes and to get equivalent quantum and classical rate constants using Rice-Ramsperger-Kassel-Marcus theory. This matrix allows to obtain a ratio of hop/exchange mechanisms, α(T), in rather good agreement with recent experimental results by Crabtree et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 134, 194311 (2011)] at room temperature. At lower temperatures, however, the present simulations predict too high ratios because the biased scrambling matrix is not statistical enough. This demonstrates the importance of applying quantum methods to simulate this reaction at the low temperatures of astrophysical interest.

  11. Dynamically biased statistical model for the ortho/para conversion in the H2+H3+ --> H3++ H2 reaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Carrasco, Susana; González-Sánchez, Lola; Aguado, Alfredo; Sanz-Sanz, Cristina; Zanchet, Alexandre; Roncero, Octavio

    2012-09-01

    In this work we present a dynamically biased statistical model to describe the evolution of the title reaction from statistical to a more direct mechanism, using quasi-classical trajectories (QCT). The method is based on the one previously proposed by Park and Light [J. Chem. Phys. 126, 044305 (2007), 10.1063/1.2430711]. A recent global potential energy surface is used here to calculate the capture probabilities, instead of the long-range ion-induced dipole interactions. The dynamical constraints are introduced by considering a scrambling matrix which depends on energy and determine the probability of the identity/hop/exchange mechanisms. These probabilities are calculated using QCT. It is found that the high zero-point energy of the fragments is transferred to the rest of the degrees of freedom, what shortens the lifetime of H_5^+ complexes and, as a consequence, the exchange mechanism is produced with lower proportion. The zero-point energy (ZPE) is not properly described in quasi-classical trajectory calculations and an approximation is done in which the initial ZPE of the reactants is reduced in QCT calculations to obtain a new ZPE-biased scrambling matrix. This reduction of the ZPE is explained by the need of correcting the pure classical level number of the H_5^+ complex, as done in classical simulations of unimolecular processes and to get equivalent quantum and classical rate constants using Rice-Ramsperger-Kassel-Marcus theory. This matrix allows to obtain a ratio of hop/exchange mechanisms, α(T), in rather good agreement with recent experimental results by Crabtree et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 134, 194311 (2011), 10.1063/1.3587246] at room temperature. At lower temperatures, however, the present simulations predict too high ratios because the biased scrambling matrix is not statistical enough. This demonstrates the importance of applying quantum methods to simulate this reaction at the low temperatures of astrophysical interest.

  12. Can statistic adjustment of OR minimize the potential confounding bias for meta-analysis of case-control study? A secondary data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tianyi; Nie, Xiaolu; Wu, Zehao; Zhang, Ying; Feng, Guoshuang; Cai, Siyu; Lv, Yaqi; Peng, Xiaoxia

    2017-12-29

    Different confounder adjustment strategies were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) in case-control study, i.e. how many confounders original studies adjusted and what the variables are. This secondary data analysis is aimed to detect whether there are potential biases caused by difference of confounding factor adjustment strategies in case-control study, and whether such bias would impact the summary effect size of meta-analysis. We included all meta-analyses that focused on the association between breast cancer and passive smoking among non-smoking women, as well as each original case-control studies included in these meta-analyses. The relative deviations (RDs) of each original study were calculated to detect how magnitude the adjustment would impact the estimation of ORs, compared with crude ORs. At the same time, a scatter diagram was sketched to describe the distribution of adjusted ORs with different number of adjusted confounders. Substantial inconsistency existed in meta-analysis of case-control studies, which would influence the precision of the summary effect size. First, mixed unadjusted and adjusted ORs were used to combine individual OR in majority of meta-analysis. Second, original studies with different adjustment strategies of confounders were combined, i.e. the number of adjusted confounders and different factors being adjusted in each original study. Third, adjustment did not make the effect size of original studies trend to constringency, which suggested that model fitting might have failed to correct the systematic error caused by confounding. The heterogeneity of confounder adjustment strategies in case-control studies may lead to further bias for summary effect size in meta-analyses, especially for weak or medium associations so that the direction of causal inference would be even reversed. Therefore, further methodological researches are needed, referring to the assessment of confounder adjustment strategies, as well as how to take this kind

  13. Generation of future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment by applying bias-correction techniques, delta-change approaches and stochastic Weather Generators at different spatial scale. Analysis of their influence on basic and drought statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio

    2017-04-01

    Assessing impacts of potential future climate change scenarios in precipitation and temperature is essential to design adaptive strategies in water resources systems. The objective of this work is to analyze the possibilities of different statistical downscaling methods to generate future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment from historical data and the available climate models simulations performed in the frame of the CORDEX EU project. The initial information employed to define these downscaling approaches are the historical climatic data (taken from the Spain02 project for the period 1971-2000 with a spatial resolution of 12.5 Km) and the future series provided by climatic models in the horizon period 2071-2100 . We have used information coming from nine climate model simulations (obtained from five different Regional climate models (RCM) nested to four different Global Climate Models (GCM)) from the European CORDEX project. In our application we have focused on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For each RCM we have generated future climate series for the period 2071-2100 by applying two different approaches, bias correction and delta change, and five different transformation techniques (first moment correction, first and second moment correction, regression functions, quantile mapping using distribution derived transformation and quantile mapping using empirical quantiles) for both of them. Ensembles of the obtained series were proposed to obtain more representative potential future climate scenarios to be employed to study potential impacts. In this work we propose a non-equifeaseble combination of the future series giving more weight to those coming from models (delta change approaches) or combination of models and techniques that provides better approximation to the basic

  14. The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2012-01-01

    This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

  15. Journal bias or author bias?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Ian

    2016-01-01

    I read with interest the comment by Mark Wilson in the Indian Journal of Medical Ethics regarding bias and conflicts of interest in medical journals. Wilson targets one journal (the New England Journal of Medicine: NEJM) and one particular "scandal" to make his point that journals' decisions on publication are biased by commercial conflicts of interest (CoIs). It is interesting that he chooses the NEJM which, by his own admission, had one of the strictest CoI policies and had published widely on this topic. The feeling is that if the NEJM can be guilty, they can all be guilty.

  16. Simulating publication bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paldam, Martin

    is censoring: selection by the size of estimate; SR3 selects the optimal combination of fit and size; and SR4 selects the first satisficing result. The last four SRs are steered by priors and result in bias. The MST and the FAT-PET have been developed for detection and correction of such bias. The simulations......Economic research typically runs J regressions for each selected for publication – it is often selected as the ‘best’ of the regressions. The paper examines five possible meanings of the word ‘best’: SR0 is ideal selection with no bias; SR1 is polishing: selection by statistical fit; SR2...... are made by data variation, while the model is the same. It appears that SR0 generates narrow funnels much at odds with observed funnels, while the other four funnels look more realistic. SR1 to SR4 give the mean a substantial bias that confirms the prior causing the bias. The FAT-PET MRA works well...

  17. Biased Supervision

    OpenAIRE

    Josse Delfgaauw; Michiel Souverijn

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ When verifiable performance measures are imperfect, organizations often resort to subjective performance pay. This may give supervisors the power to direct employees towards tasks that mainly benefit the supervisor rather than the organization. We cast a principal-supervisor-agent model in a multitask setting, where the supervisor has an intrinsic preference towards specific tasks. We show that subjective performance pay based on evaluation by a biased supervisor ...

  18. Large-scale galaxy bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desjacques, Vincent; Jeong, Donghui; Schmidt, Fabian

    2018-02-01

    This review presents a comprehensive overview of galaxy bias, that is, the statistical relation between the distribution of galaxies and matter. We focus on large scales where cosmic density fields are quasi-linear. On these scales, the clustering of galaxies can be described by a perturbative bias expansion, and the complicated physics of galaxy formation is absorbed by a finite set of coefficients of the expansion, called bias parameters. The review begins with a detailed derivation of this very important result, which forms the basis of the rigorous perturbative description of galaxy clustering, under the assumptions of General Relativity and Gaussian, adiabatic initial conditions. Key components of the bias expansion are all leading local gravitational observables, which include the matter density but also tidal fields and their time derivatives. We hence expand the definition of local bias to encompass all these contributions. This derivation is followed by a presentation of the peak-background split in its general form, which elucidates the physical meaning of the bias parameters, and a detailed description of the connection between bias parameters and galaxy statistics. We then review the excursion-set formalism and peak theory which provide predictions for the values of the bias parameters. In the remainder of the review, we consider the generalizations of galaxy bias required in the presence of various types of cosmological physics that go beyond pressureless matter with adiabatic, Gaussian initial conditions: primordial non-Gaussianity, massive neutrinos, baryon-CDM isocurvature perturbations, dark energy, and modified gravity. Finally, we discuss how the description of galaxy bias in the galaxies' rest frame is related to clustering statistics measured from the observed angular positions and redshifts in actual galaxy catalogs.

  19. Large-scale galaxy bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Donghui; Desjacques, Vincent; Schmidt, Fabian

    2018-01-01

    Here, we briefly introduce the key results of the recent review (arXiv:1611.09787), whose abstract is as following. This review presents a comprehensive overview of galaxy bias, that is, the statistical relation between the distribution of galaxies and matter. We focus on large scales where cosmic density fields are quasi-linear. On these scales, the clustering of galaxies can be described by a perturbative bias expansion, and the complicated physics of galaxy formation is absorbed by a finite set of coefficients of the expansion, called bias parameters. The review begins with a detailed derivation of this very important result, which forms the basis of the rigorous perturbative description of galaxy clustering, under the assumptions of General Relativity and Gaussian, adiabatic initial conditions. Key components of the bias expansion are all leading local gravitational observables, which include the matter density but also tidal fields and their time derivatives. We hence expand the definition of local bias to encompass all these contributions. This derivation is followed by a presentation of the peak-background split in its general form, which elucidates the physical meaning of the bias parameters, and a detailed description of the connection between bias parameters and galaxy (or halo) statistics. We then review the excursion set formalism and peak theory which provide predictions for the values of the bias parameters. In the remainder of the review, we consider the generalizations of galaxy bias required in the presence of various types of cosmological physics that go beyond pressureless matter with adiabatic, Gaussian initial conditions: primordial non-Gaussianity, massive neutrinos, baryon-CDM isocurvature perturbations, dark energy, and modified gravity. Finally, we discuss how the description of galaxy bias in the galaxies' rest frame is related to clustering statistics measured from the observed angular positions and redshifts in actual galaxy catalogs.

  20. Statistical electromagnetics: Complex cavities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Naus, H.W.L.

    2008-01-01

    A selection of the literature on the statistical description of electromagnetic fields and complex cavities is concisely reviewed. Some essential concepts, for example, the application of the central limit theorem and the maximum entropy principle, are scrutinized. Implicit assumptions, biased

  1. Bias against research on gender bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cislak, Aleksandra; Formanowicz, Magdalena; Saguy, Tamar

    2018-01-01

    The bias against women in academia is a documented phenomenon that has had detrimental consequences, not only for women, but also for the quality of science. First, gender bias in academia affects female scientists, resulting in their underrepresentation in academic institutions, particularly in higher ranks. The second type of gender bias in science relates to some findings applying only to male participants, which produces biased knowledge. Here, we identify a third potentially powerful source of gender bias in academia: the bias against research on gender bias. In a bibliometric investigation covering a broad range of social sciences, we analyzed published articles on gender bias and race bias and established that articles on gender bias are funded less often and published in journals with a lower Impact Factor than articles on comparable instances of social discrimination. This result suggests the possibility of an underappreciation of the phenomenon of gender bias and related research within the academic community. Addressing this meta-bias is crucial for the further examination of gender inequality, which severely affects many women across the world.

  2. Understanding Statistics - Cancer Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annual reports of U.S. cancer statistics including new cases, deaths, trends, survival, prevalence, lifetime risk, and progress toward Healthy People targets, plus statistical summaries for a number of common cancer types.

  3. Adaptable history biases in human perceptual decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahamyan, Arman; Silva, Laura Luz; Dakin, Steven C; Carandini, Matteo; Gardner, Justin L

    2016-06-21

    When making choices under conditions of perceptual uncertainty, past experience can play a vital role. However, it can also lead to biases that worsen decisions. Consistent with previous observations, we found that human choices are influenced by the success or failure of past choices even in a standard two-alternative detection task, where choice history is irrelevant. The typical bias was one that made the subject switch choices after a failure. These choice history biases led to poorer performance and were similar for observers in different countries. They were well captured by a simple logistic regression model that had been previously applied to describe psychophysical performance in mice. Such irrational biases seem at odds with the principles of reinforcement learning, which would predict exquisite adaptability to choice history. We therefore asked whether subjects could adapt their irrational biases following changes in trial order statistics. Adaptability was strong in the direction that confirmed a subject's default biases, but weaker in the opposite direction, so that existing biases could not be eradicated. We conclude that humans can adapt choice history biases, but cannot easily overcome existing biases even if irrational in the current context: adaptation is more sensitive to confirmatory than contradictory statistics.

  4. Combination of biased forecasts: Bias correction or bias based weights?

    OpenAIRE

    Wenzel, Thomas

    1999-01-01

    Most of the literature on combination of forecasts deals with the assumption of unbiased individual forecasts. Here, we consider the case of biased forecasts and discuss two different combination techniques resulting in an unbiased forecast. On the one hand we correct the individual forecasts, and on the other we calculate bias based weights. A simulation study gives some insight in the situations where we should use the different methods.

  5. Benefits of being biased!

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Administrator

    Journal of Genetics, Vol. 83, No. 2, August 2004. Keywords. codon bias; alcohol dehydrogenase; Darwinian ... RESEARCH COMMENTARY. Benefits of being biased! SUTIRTH DEY*. Evolutionary Biology Laboratory, Evolutionary & Organismal Biology Unit,. Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research,.

  6. CPI Bias in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chul Chung

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available We estimate the CPI bias in Korea by employing the approach of Engel’s Law as suggested by Hamilton (2001. This paper is the first attempt to estimate the bias using Korean panel data, Korean Labor and Income Panel Study(KLIPS. Following Hamilton’s model with non­linear specification correction, our estimation result shows that the cumulative CPI bias over the sample period (2000-2005 was 0.7 percent annually. This CPI bias implies that about 21 percent of the inflation rate during the period can be attributed to the bias. In light of purchasing power parity, we provide an interpretation of the estimated bias.

  7. Bias correction of daily satellite precipitation data using genetic algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratama, A. W.; Buono, A.; Hidayat, R.; Harsa, H.

    2018-05-01

    Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) was producted by blending Satellite-only Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation (CHIRP) with Stasion observations data. The blending process was aimed to reduce bias of CHIRP. However, Biases of CHIRPS on statistical moment and quantil values were high during wet season over Java Island. This paper presented a bias correction scheme to adjust statistical moment of CHIRP using observation precipitation data. The scheme combined Genetic Algorithm and Nonlinear Power Transformation, the results was evaluated based on different season and different elevation level. The experiment results revealed that the scheme robustly reduced bias on variance around 100% reduction and leaded to reduction of first, and second quantile biases. However, bias on third quantile only reduced during dry months. Based on different level of elevation, the performance of bias correction process is only significantly different on skewness indicators.

  8. Statistical thermodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Gyeong Hui

    2008-03-01

    This book consists of 15 chapters, which are basic conception and meaning of statistical thermodynamics, Maxwell-Boltzmann's statistics, ensemble, thermodynamics function and fluctuation, statistical dynamics with independent particle system, ideal molecular system, chemical equilibrium and chemical reaction rate in ideal gas mixture, classical statistical thermodynamics, ideal lattice model, lattice statistics and nonideal lattice model, imperfect gas theory on liquid, theory on solution, statistical thermodynamics of interface, statistical thermodynamics of a high molecule system and quantum statistics

  9. A study on investors’ personality characteristics and behavioral biases: Conservatism bias and availability bias in the Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud Moradi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Most economic and finance theories are based on the assumption that during economic decision making, people would act totally rational and consider all available information. Nevertheless, behavioral finance focuses on studying of the role of psychological factors on economic participants’ behavior. The study shows that in real-world environment, people are influenced by emotional and cognitive errors and may make irrational financial decisions. In many cases, the participants of financial markets are not aware of their talents for error in decision making, so they are dissatisfied with their investments by considering some behavioral biases decisions. These decisions may often yield undesirable outcomes, which could influence economy, significantly. This paper presents a survey on the relationship between personality dimensions with behavioral biases and availability bias among investment managers in the Tehran Stock Exchange using SPSS software, descriptive and inferential statistics. The necessary data are collected through questionnaire and they are analyzed using some statistical tests. The preliminary results indicate that there is a relationship between personality dimensions and behavioral biases like conservatism bias and availability bias among the investors in the Tehran Stock Exchange.

  10. Sampler bias -- Phase 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, R.J.

    1995-01-01

    This documents Phase 1 determinations on sampler induced bias for four sampler types used in tank characterization. Each sampler, grab sampler or bottle-on-a-string, auger sampler, sludge sampler and universal sampler, is briefly discussed and their physical limits noted. Phase 2 of this document will define additional testing and analysis to further define Sampler Bias

  11. Photovoltaic Bias Generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-02-01

    Department of the Army position unless so designated by other authorized documents. Citation of manufacturer’s or trade names does not constitute an... Interior view of the photovoltaic bias generator showing wrapped-wire side of circuit board...3 Fig. 4 Interior view of the photovoltaic bias generator showing component side of circuit board

  12. Biases in categorization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Das-Smaal, E.A.

    1990-01-01

    On what grounds can we conclude that an act of categorization is biased? In this chapter, it is contended that in the absence of objective norms of what categories actually are, biases in categorization can only be specified in relation to theoretical understandings of categorization. Therefore, the

  13. Approximate Bias Correction in Econometrics

    OpenAIRE

    James G. MacKinnon; Anthony A. Smith Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses ways to reduce the bias of consistent estimators that are biased in finite samples. It is necessary that the bias function, which relates parameter values to bias, should be estimable by computer simulation or by some other method. If so, bias can be reduced or, in some cases that may not be unrealistic, even eliminated. In general, several evaluations of the bias function will be required to do this. Unfortunately, reducing bias may increase the variance, or even the mea...

  14. Galaxy bias and primordial non-Gaussianity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Assassi, Valentin; Baumann, Daniel [DAMTP, Cambridge University, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA (United Kingdom); Schmidt, Fabian, E-mail: assassi@ias.edu, E-mail: D.D.Baumann@uva.nl, E-mail: fabians@MPA-Garching.MPG.DE [Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 1, 85748 Garching (Germany)

    2015-12-01

    We present a systematic study of galaxy biasing in the presence of primordial non-Gaussianity. For a large class of non-Gaussian initial conditions, we define a general bias expansion and prove that it is closed under renormalization, thereby showing that the basis of operators in the expansion is complete. We then study the effects of primordial non-Gaussianity on the statistics of galaxies. We show that the equivalence principle enforces a relation between the scale-dependent bias in the galaxy power spectrum and that in the dipolar part of the bispectrum. This provides a powerful consistency check to confirm the primordial origin of any observed scale-dependent bias. Finally, we also discuss the imprints of anisotropic non-Gaussianity as motivated by recent studies of higher-spin fields during inflation.

  15. Galaxy bias and primordial non-Gaussianity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assassi, Valentin; Baumann, Daniel; Schmidt, Fabian

    2015-01-01

    We present a systematic study of galaxy biasing in the presence of primordial non-Gaussianity. For a large class of non-Gaussian initial conditions, we define a general bias expansion and prove that it is closed under renormalization, thereby showing that the basis of operators in the expansion is complete. We then study the effects of primordial non-Gaussianity on the statistics of galaxies. We show that the equivalence principle enforces a relation between the scale-dependent bias in the galaxy power spectrum and that in the dipolar part of the bispectrum. This provides a powerful consistency check to confirm the primordial origin of any observed scale-dependent bias. Finally, we also discuss the imprints of anisotropic non-Gaussianity as motivated by recent studies of higher-spin fields during inflation

  16. Cancer Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... What Is Cancer? Cancer Statistics Cancer Disparities Cancer Statistics Cancer has a major impact on society in ... success of efforts to control and manage cancer. Statistics at a Glance: The Burden of Cancer in ...

  17. Bias aware Kalman filters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Drecourt, J.-P.; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2006-01-01

    This paper reviews two different approaches that have been proposed to tackle the problems of model bias with the Kalman filter: the use of a colored noise model and the implementation of a separate bias filter. Both filters are implemented with and without feedback of the bias into the model state....... The colored noise filter formulation is extended to correct both time correlated and uncorrelated model error components. A more stable version of the separate filter without feedback is presented. The filters are implemented in an ensemble framework using Latin hypercube sampling. The techniques...... are illustrated on a simple one-dimensional groundwater problem. The results show that the presented filters outperform the standard Kalman filter and that the implementations with bias feedback work in more general conditions than the implementations without feedback. 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  18. Biases in casino betting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Sundali

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available We examine two departures of individual perceptions of randomness from probability theory: the hot hand and the gambler's fallacy, and their respective opposites. This paper's first contribution is to use data from the field (individuals playing roulette in a casino to demonstrate the existence and impact of these biases that have been previously documented in the lab. Decisions in the field are consistent with biased beliefs, although we observe significant individual heterogeneity in the population. A second contribution is to separately identify these biases within a given individual, then to examine their within-person correlation. We find a positive and significant correlation across individuals between hot hand and gambler's fallacy biases, suggesting a common (root cause of the two related errors. We speculate as to the source of this correlation (locus of control, and suggest future research which could test this speculation.

  19. Introduction to Unconscious Bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmelz, Joan T.

    2010-05-01

    We all have biases, and we are (for the most part) unaware of them. In general, men and women BOTH unconsciously devalue the contributions of women. This can have a detrimental effect on grant proposals, job applications, and performance reviews. Sociology is way ahead of astronomy in these studies. When evaluating identical application packages, male and female University psychology professors preferred 2:1 to hire "Brian” over "Karen” as an assistant professor. When evaluating a more experienced record (at the point of promotion to tenure), reservations were expressed four times more often when the name was female. This unconscious bias has a repeated negative effect on Karen's career. This talk will introduce the concept of unconscious bias and also give recommendations on how to address it using an example for a faculty search committee. The process of eliminating unconscious bias begins with awareness, then moves to policy and practice, and ends with accountability.

  20. Australia's Bond Home Bias

    OpenAIRE

    Anil V. Mishra; Umaru B. Conteh

    2014-01-01

    This paper constructs the float adjusted measure of home bias and explores the determinants of bond home bias by employing the International Monetary Fund's high quality dataset (2001 to 2009) on cross-border bond investment. The paper finds that Australian investors' prefer investing in countries with higher economic development and more developed bond markets. Exchange rate volatility appears to be an impediment for cross-border bond investment. Investors prefer investing in countries with ...

  1. Common method biases in behavioral research: a critical review of the literature and recommended remedies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podsakoff, Philip M; MacKenzie, Scott B; Lee, Jeong-Yeon; Podsakoff, Nathan P

    2003-10-01

    Interest in the problem of method biases has a long history in the behavioral sciences. Despite this, a comprehensive summary of the potential sources of method biases and how to control for them does not exist. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to examine the extent to which method biases influence behavioral research results, identify potential sources of method biases, discuss the cognitive processes through which method biases influence responses to measures, evaluate the many different procedural and statistical techniques that can be used to control method biases, and provide recommendations for how to select appropriate procedural and statistical remedies for different types of research settings.

  2. Measuring Agricultural Bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Henning Tarp; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    The measurement issue is the key issue in the literature on trade policy-induced agri-cultural price incentive bias. This paper introduces a general equilibrium effective rate of protection (GE-ERP) measure, which extends and generalizes earlier partial equilibrium nominal protection measures...... shares and intersectoral linkages - are crucial for determining the sign and magnitude of trade policy bias. The GE-ERP measure is therefore uniquely suited to capture the full impact of trade policies on agricultural price incentives. A Monte Carlo procedure confirms that the results are robust....... For the 15 sample countries, the results indicate that the agricultural price incentive bias, which was generally perceived to exist during the 1980s, was largely eliminated during the 1990s. The results also demonstrate that general equilibrium effects and country-specific characteristics - including trade...

  3. Usage Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this page: https://medlineplus.gov/usestatistics.html MedlinePlus Statistics To use the sharing features on this page, ... By Quarter View image full size Quarterly User Statistics Quarter Page Views Unique Visitors Oct-Dec-98 ...

  4. Mathematical statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Pestman, Wiebe R

    2009-01-01

    This textbook provides a broad and solid introduction to mathematical statistics, including the classical subjects hypothesis testing, normal regression analysis, and normal analysis of variance. In addition, non-parametric statistics and vectorial statistics are considered, as well as applications of stochastic analysis in modern statistics, e.g., Kolmogorov-Smirnov testing, smoothing techniques, robustness and density estimation. For students with some elementary mathematical background. With many exercises. Prerequisites from measure theory and linear algebra are presented.

  5. Frog Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whole Frog Project and Virtual Frog Dissection Statistics wwwstats output for January 1 through duplicate or extraneous accesses. For example, in these statistics, while a POST requesting an image is as well. Note that this under-represents the bytes requested. Starting date for following statistics

  6. Philosophy of statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Forster, Malcolm R

    2011-01-01

    Statisticians and philosophers of science have many common interests but restricted communication with each other. This volume aims to remedy these shortcomings. It provides state-of-the-art research in the area of philosophy of statistics by encouraging numerous experts to communicate with one another without feeling "restricted” by their disciplines or thinking "piecemeal” in their treatment of issues. A second goal of this book is to present work in the field without bias toward any particular statistical paradigm. Broadly speaking, the essays in this Handbook are concerned with problems of induction, statistics and probability. For centuries, foundational problems like induction have been among philosophers' favorite topics; recently, however, non-philosophers have increasingly taken a keen interest in these issues. This volume accordingly contains papers by both philosophers and non-philosophers, including scholars from nine academic disciplines.

  7. Measuring agricultural policy bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Henning Tarp; Robinson, Sherman; Tarp, Finn

    2010-01-01

    Measurement is a key issue in the literature on price incentive bias induced by trade policy. We introduce a general equilibrium measure of the relative effective rate of protection, which generalizes earlier protection measures. For our fifteen sample countries, results indicate that the agricul...

  8. Statistical physics

    CERN Document Server

    Sadovskii, Michael V

    2012-01-01

    This volume provides a compact presentation of modern statistical physics at an advanced level. Beginning with questions on the foundations of statistical mechanics all important aspects of statistical physics are included, such as applications to ideal gases, the theory of quantum liquids and superconductivity and the modern theory of critical phenomena. Beyond that attention is given to new approaches, such as quantum field theory methods and non-equilibrium problems.

  9. Statistical optics

    CERN Document Server

    Goodman, Joseph W

    2015-01-01

    This book discusses statistical methods that are useful for treating problems in modern optics, and the application of these methods to solving a variety of such problems This book covers a variety of statistical problems in optics, including both theory and applications.  The text covers the necessary background in statistics, statistical properties of light waves of various types, the theory of partial coherence and its applications, imaging with partially coherent light, atmospheric degradations of images, and noise limitations in the detection of light. New topics have been introduced i

  10. Harmonic statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliazar, Iddo, E-mail: eliazar@post.tau.ac.il

    2017-05-15

    The exponential, the normal, and the Poisson statistical laws are of major importance due to their universality. Harmonic statistics are as universal as the three aforementioned laws, but yet they fall short in their ‘public relations’ for the following reason: the full scope of harmonic statistics cannot be described in terms of a statistical law. In this paper we describe harmonic statistics, in their full scope, via an object termed harmonic Poisson process: a Poisson process, over the positive half-line, with a harmonic intensity. The paper reviews the harmonic Poisson process, investigates its properties, and presents the connections of this object to an assortment of topics: uniform statistics, scale invariance, random multiplicative perturbations, Pareto and inverse-Pareto statistics, exponential growth and exponential decay, power-law renormalization, convergence and domains of attraction, the Langevin equation, diffusions, Benford’s law, and 1/f noise. - Highlights: • Harmonic statistics are described and reviewed in detail. • Connections to various statistical laws are established. • Connections to perturbation, renormalization and dynamics are established.

  11. Harmonic statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eliazar, Iddo

    2017-01-01

    The exponential, the normal, and the Poisson statistical laws are of major importance due to their universality. Harmonic statistics are as universal as the three aforementioned laws, but yet they fall short in their ‘public relations’ for the following reason: the full scope of harmonic statistics cannot be described in terms of a statistical law. In this paper we describe harmonic statistics, in their full scope, via an object termed harmonic Poisson process: a Poisson process, over the positive half-line, with a harmonic intensity. The paper reviews the harmonic Poisson process, investigates its properties, and presents the connections of this object to an assortment of topics: uniform statistics, scale invariance, random multiplicative perturbations, Pareto and inverse-Pareto statistics, exponential growth and exponential decay, power-law renormalization, convergence and domains of attraction, the Langevin equation, diffusions, Benford’s law, and 1/f noise. - Highlights: • Harmonic statistics are described and reviewed in detail. • Connections to various statistical laws are established. • Connections to perturbation, renormalization and dynamics are established.

  12. Statistical methods

    CERN Document Server

    Szulc, Stefan

    1965-01-01

    Statistical Methods provides a discussion of the principles of the organization and technique of research, with emphasis on its application to the problems in social statistics. This book discusses branch statistics, which aims to develop practical ways of collecting and processing numerical data and to adapt general statistical methods to the objectives in a given field.Organized into five parts encompassing 22 chapters, this book begins with an overview of how to organize the collection of such information on individual units, primarily as accomplished by government agencies. This text then

  13. Histoplasmosis Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Testing Treatment & Outcomes Health Professionals Statistics More Resources Candidiasis Candida infections of the mouth, throat, and esophagus Vaginal candidiasis Invasive candidiasis Definition Symptoms Risk & Prevention Sources Diagnosis ...

  14. Estimation bias and bias correction in reduced rank autoregressions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Heino Bohn

    2017-01-01

    This paper characterizes the finite-sample bias of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in a reduced rank vector autoregression and suggests two simulation-based bias corrections. One is a simple bootstrap implementation that approximates the bias at the MLE. The other is an iterative root...

  15. Statistical Diversions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petocz, Peter; Sowey, Eric

    2012-01-01

    The term "data snooping" refers to the practice of choosing which statistical analyses to apply to a set of data after having first looked at those data. Data snooping contradicts a fundamental precept of applied statistics, that the scheme of analysis is to be planned in advance. In this column, the authors shall elucidate the…

  16. Statistical Diversions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petocz, Peter; Sowey, Eric

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the authors focus on hypothesis testing--that peculiarly statistical way of deciding things. Statistical methods for testing hypotheses were developed in the 1920s and 1930s by some of the most famous statisticians, in particular Ronald Fisher, Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson, who laid the foundations of almost all modern methods of…

  17. Scan Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Glaz, Joseph

    2009-01-01

    Suitable for graduate students and researchers in applied probability and statistics, as well as for scientists in biology, computer science, pharmaceutical science and medicine, this title brings together a collection of chapters illustrating the depth and diversity of theory, methods and applications in the area of scan statistics.

  18. Practical Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Lyons, L.

    2016-01-01

    Accelerators and detectors are expensive, both in terms of money and human effort. It is thus important to invest effort in performing a good statistical anal- ysis of the data, in order to extract the best information from it. This series of five lectures deals with practical aspects of statistical issues that arise in typical High Energy Physics analyses.

  19. Descriptive statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nick, Todd G

    2007-01-01

    Statistics is defined by the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) thesaurus as the science and art of collecting, summarizing, and analyzing data that are subject to random variation. The two broad categories of summarizing and analyzing data are referred to as descriptive and inferential statistics. This chapter considers the science and art of summarizing data where descriptive statistics and graphics are used to display data. In this chapter, we discuss the fundamentals of descriptive statistics, including describing qualitative and quantitative variables. For describing quantitative variables, measures of location and spread, for example the standard deviation, are presented along with graphical presentations. We also discuss distributions of statistics, for example the variance, as well as the use of transformations. The concepts in this chapter are useful for uncovering patterns within the data and for effectively presenting the results of a project.

  20. Assessing the extent of non-stationary biases in GCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahar, Jannatun; Johnson, Fiona; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-06-01

    General circulation models (GCMs) are the main tools for estimating changes in the climate for the future. The imperfect representation of climate models introduces biases in the simulations that need to be corrected prior to their use for impact assessments. Bias correction methods generally assume that the bias calculated over the historical period does not change and can be applied to the future. This study investigates this assumption by considering the extent and nature of bias non-stationarity using 20th century precipitation and temperature simulations from six CMIP5 GCMs across Australia. Four statistics (mean, standard deviation, 10th and 90th quantiles) in monthly and seasonal biases are obtained for three different time window lengths (10, 25 and 33 years) to examine the properties of bias over time. This approach is repeated for two different phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which is known to have strong influences on the Australian climate. It is found that bias non-stationarity at decadal timescales is indeed an issue over some of Australia for some GCMs. When considering interdecadal variability there are significant difference in the bias between positive and negative phases of the IPO. Regional analyses confirmed these findings with the largest differences seen on the east coast of Australia, where IPO impacts tend to be the strongest. The nature of the bias non-stationarity found in this study suggests that it will be difficult to modify existing bias correction approaches to account for non-stationary biases. A more practical approach for impact assessments that use bias correction maybe to use a selection of GCMs where the assumption of bias non-stationarity holds.

  1. Statistical theory and inference

    CERN Document Server

    Olive, David J

    2014-01-01

    This text is for  a one semester graduate course in statistical theory and covers minimal and complete sufficient statistics, maximum likelihood estimators, method of moments, bias and mean square error, uniform minimum variance estimators and the Cramer-Rao lower bound, an introduction to large sample theory, likelihood ratio tests and uniformly most powerful  tests and the Neyman Pearson Lemma. A major goal of this text is to make these topics much more accessible to students by using the theory of exponential families. Exponential families, indicator functions and the support of the distribution are used throughout the text to simplify the theory. More than 50 ``brand name" distributions are used to illustrate the theory with many examples of exponential families, maximum likelihood estimators and uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimators. There are many homework problems with over 30 pages of solutions.

  2. Semiconductor statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Blakemore, J S

    1962-01-01

    Semiconductor Statistics presents statistics aimed at complementing existing books on the relationships between carrier densities and transport effects. The book is divided into two parts. Part I provides introductory material on the electron theory of solids, and then discusses carrier statistics for semiconductors in thermal equilibrium. Of course a solid cannot be in true thermodynamic equilibrium if any electrical current is passed; but when currents are reasonably small the distribution function is but little perturbed, and the carrier distribution for such a """"quasi-equilibrium"""" co

  3. Statistical Physics

    CERN Document Server

    Wannier, Gregory Hugh

    1966-01-01

    Until recently, the field of statistical physics was traditionally taught as three separate subjects: thermodynamics, statistical mechanics, and kinetic theory. This text, a forerunner in its field and now a classic, was the first to recognize the outdated reasons for their separation and to combine the essentials of the three subjects into one unified presentation of thermal physics. It has been widely adopted in graduate and advanced undergraduate courses, and is recommended throughout the field as an indispensable aid to the independent study and research of statistical physics.Designed for

  4. Statistics Clinic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feiveson, Alan H.; Foy, Millennia; Ploutz-Snyder, Robert; Fiedler, James

    2014-01-01

    Do you have elevated p-values? Is the data analysis process getting you down? Do you experience anxiety when you need to respond to criticism of statistical methods in your manuscript? You may be suffering from Insufficient Statistical Support Syndrome (ISSS). For symptomatic relief of ISSS, come for a free consultation with JSC biostatisticians at our help desk during the poster sessions at the HRP Investigators Workshop. Get answers to common questions about sample size, missing data, multiple testing, when to trust the results of your analyses and more. Side effects may include sudden loss of statistics anxiety, improved interpretation of your data, and increased confidence in your results.

  5. Effects of Model Chemistry and Data Biases on Stratospheric Ozone Assimilation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Coy, L; Allen, D. R; Eckermann, S. D; McCormack, J. P; Stajner, I; Hogan, T. F

    2007-01-01

    .... In this study, O-F statistics from the Global Ozone Assimilation Testing System (GOATS) are used to examine how ozone assimilation products and their associated O-F statistics depend on input data biases and ozone photochemistry parameterizations (OPP...

  6. Image Statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wendelberger, Laura Jean [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-08-08

    In large datasets, it is time consuming or even impossible to pick out interesting images. Our proposed solution is to find statistics to quantify the information in each image and use those to identify and pick out images of interest.

  7. Accident Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...

  8. CMS Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The CMS Center for Strategic Planning produces an annual CMS Statistics reference booklet that provides a quick reference for summary information about health...

  9. WPRDC Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — Data about the usage of the WPRDC site and its various datasets, obtained by combining Google Analytics statistics with information from the WPRDC's data portal.

  10. Multiparametric statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Serdobolskii, Vadim Ivanovich

    2007-01-01

    This monograph presents mathematical theory of statistical models described by the essentially large number of unknown parameters, comparable with sample size but can also be much larger. In this meaning, the proposed theory can be called "essentially multiparametric". It is developed on the basis of the Kolmogorov asymptotic approach in which sample size increases along with the number of unknown parameters.This theory opens a way for solution of central problems of multivariate statistics, which up until now have not been solved. Traditional statistical methods based on the idea of an infinite sampling often break down in the solution of real problems, and, dependent on data, can be inefficient, unstable and even not applicable. In this situation, practical statisticians are forced to use various heuristic methods in the hope the will find a satisfactory solution.Mathematical theory developed in this book presents a regular technique for implementing new, more efficient versions of statistical procedures. ...

  11. Gonorrhea Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Search Form Controls Cancel Submit Search the CDC Gonorrhea Note: Javascript is disabled or is not supported ... Twitter STD on Facebook Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STDs) Gonorrhea Statistics Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Gonorrhea ...

  12. Reversible Statistics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tryggestad, Kjell

    2004-01-01

    The study aims is to describe how the inclusion and exclusion of materials and calculative devices construct the boundaries and distinctions between statistical facts and artifacts in economics. My methodological approach is inspired by John Graunt's (1667) Political arithmetic and more recent work...... within constructivism and the field of Science and Technology Studies (STS). The result of this approach is here termed reversible statistics, reconstructing the findings of a statistical study within economics in three different ways. It is argued that all three accounts are quite normal, albeit...... in different ways. The presence and absence of diverse materials, both natural and political, is what distinguishes them from each other. Arguments are presented for a more symmetric relation between the scientific statistical text and the reader. I will argue that a more symmetric relation can be achieved...

  13. Vital statistics

    CERN Document Server

    MacKenzie, Dana

    2004-01-01

    The drawbacks of using 19th-century mathematics in physics and astronomy are illustrated. To continue with the expansion of the knowledge about the cosmos, the scientists will have to come in terms with modern statistics. Some researchers have deliberately started importing techniques that are used in medical research. However, the physicists need to identify the brand of statistics that will be suitable for them, and make a choice between the Bayesian and the frequentists approach. (Edited abstract).

  14. Obesity, the endocannabinoid system, and bias arising from pharmaceutical sponsorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPartland, John M

    2009-01-01

    Previous research has shown that academic physicians conflicted by funding from the pharmaceutical industry have corrupted evidence based medicine and helped enlarge the market for drugs. Physicians made pharmaceutical-friendly statements, engaged in disease mongering, and signed biased review articles ghost-authored by corporate employees. This paper tested the hypothesis that bias affects review articles regarding rimonabant, an anti-obesity drug that blocks the central cannabinoid receptor. A MEDLINE search was performed for rimonabant review articles, limited to articles authored by USA physicians who served as consultants for the company that manufactures rimonabant. Extracted articles were examined for industry-friendly bias, identified by three methods: analysis with a validated instrument for monitoring bias in continuing medical education (CME); analysis for bias defined as statements that ran contrary to external evidence; and a tally of misrepresentations about the endocannabinoid system. Eight review articles were identified, but only three disclosed authors' financial conflicts of interest, despite easily accessible information to the contrary. The Takhar CME bias instrument demonstrated statistically significant bias in all the review articles. Biased statements that were nearly identical reappeared in the articles, including disease mongering, exaggerating rimonabant's efficacy and safety, lack of criticisms regarding rimonabant clinical trials, and speculations about surrogate markers stated as facts. Distinctive and identical misrepresentations regarding the endocannabinoid system also reappeared in articles by different authors. The findings are characteristic of bias that arises from financial conflicts of interest, and suggestive of ghostwriting by a common author. Resolutions for this scenario are proposed.

  15. Bias identification in PWR pressurizer instrumentation using the generalized liklihood-ratio technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tylee, J.L.

    1981-01-01

    A method for detecting and identifying biases in the pressure and level sensors of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) pressurizer is described. The generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) technique performs statistical tests on the innovations sequence of a Kalman filter state estimator and is capable of determining when a bias appears, in what sensor the bias exists, and estimating the bias magnitude. Simulation results using a second-order linear, discrete PWR pressurizer model demonstrate the capabilities of the GLR method

  16. Sampling of temporal networks: Methods and biases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, Luis E. C.; Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

    2017-11-01

    Temporal networks have been increasingly used to model a diversity of systems that evolve in time; for example, human contact structures over which dynamic processes such as epidemics take place. A fundamental aspect of real-life networks is that they are sampled within temporal and spatial frames. Furthermore, one might wish to subsample networks to reduce their size for better visualization or to perform computationally intensive simulations. The sampling method may affect the network structure and thus caution is necessary to generalize results based on samples. In this paper, we study four sampling strategies applied to a variety of real-life temporal networks. We quantify the biases generated by each sampling strategy on a number of relevant statistics such as link activity, temporal paths and epidemic spread. We find that some biases are common in a variety of networks and statistics, but one strategy, uniform sampling of nodes, shows improved performance in most scenarios. Given the particularities of temporal network data and the variety of network structures, we recommend that the choice of sampling methods be problem oriented to minimize the potential biases for the specific research questions on hand. Our results help researchers to better design network data collection protocols and to understand the limitations of sampled temporal network data.

  17. Statistical optics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, J. W.

    This book is based on the thesis that some training in the area of statistical optics should be included as a standard part of any advanced optics curriculum. Random variables are discussed, taking into account definitions of probability and random variables, distribution functions and density functions, an extension to two or more random variables, statistical averages, transformations of random variables, sums of real random variables, Gaussian random variables, complex-valued random variables, and random phasor sums. Other subjects examined are related to random processes, some first-order properties of light waves, the coherence of optical waves, some problems involving high-order coherence, effects of partial coherence on imaging systems, imaging in the presence of randomly inhomogeneous media, and fundamental limits in photoelectric detection of light. Attention is given to deterministic versus statistical phenomena and models, the Fourier transform, and the fourth-order moment of the spectrum of a detected speckle image.

  18. Statistical mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Schwabl, Franz

    2006-01-01

    The completely revised new edition of the classical book on Statistical Mechanics covers the basic concepts of equilibrium and non-equilibrium statistical physics. In addition to a deductive approach to equilibrium statistics and thermodynamics based on a single hypothesis - the form of the microcanonical density matrix - this book treats the most important elements of non-equilibrium phenomena. Intermediate calculations are presented in complete detail. Problems at the end of each chapter help students to consolidate their understanding of the material. Beyond the fundamentals, this text demonstrates the breadth of the field and its great variety of applications. Modern areas such as renormalization group theory, percolation, stochastic equations of motion and their applications to critical dynamics, kinetic theories, as well as fundamental considerations of irreversibility, are discussed. The text will be useful for advanced students of physics and other natural sciences; a basic knowledge of quantum mechan...

  19. Statistical mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Jana, Madhusudan

    2015-01-01

    Statistical mechanics is self sufficient, written in a lucid manner, keeping in mind the exam system of the universities. Need of study this subject and its relation to Thermodynamics is discussed in detail. Starting from Liouville theorem gradually, the Statistical Mechanics is developed thoroughly. All three types of Statistical distribution functions are derived separately with their periphery of applications and limitations. Non-interacting ideal Bose gas and Fermi gas are discussed thoroughly. Properties of Liquid He-II and the corresponding models have been depicted. White dwarfs and condensed matter physics, transport phenomenon - thermal and electrical conductivity, Hall effect, Magneto resistance, viscosity, diffusion, etc. are discussed. Basic understanding of Ising model is given to explain the phase transition. The book ends with a detailed coverage to the method of ensembles (namely Microcanonical, canonical and grand canonical) and their applications. Various numerical and conceptual problems ar...

  20. Statistical physics

    CERN Document Server

    Guénault, Tony

    2007-01-01

    In this revised and enlarged second edition of an established text Tony Guénault provides a clear and refreshingly readable introduction to statistical physics, an essential component of any first degree in physics. The treatment itself is self-contained and concentrates on an understanding of the physical ideas, without requiring a high level of mathematical sophistication. A straightforward quantum approach to statistical averaging is adopted from the outset (easier, the author believes, than the classical approach). The initial part of the book is geared towards explaining the equilibrium properties of a simple isolated assembly of particles. Thus, several important topics, for example an ideal spin-½ solid, can be discussed at an early stage. The treatment of gases gives full coverage to Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein statistics. Towards the end of the book the student is introduced to a wider viewpoint and new chapters are included on chemical thermodynamics, interactions in, for exam...

  1. Statistical Physics

    CERN Document Server

    Mandl, Franz

    1988-01-01

    The Manchester Physics Series General Editors: D. J. Sandiford; F. Mandl; A. C. Phillips Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manchester Properties of Matter B. H. Flowers and E. Mendoza Optics Second Edition F. G. Smith and J. H. Thomson Statistical Physics Second Edition E. Mandl Electromagnetism Second Edition I. S. Grant and W. R. Phillips Statistics R. J. Barlow Solid State Physics Second Edition J. R. Hook and H. E. Hall Quantum Mechanics F. Mandl Particle Physics Second Edition B. R. Martin and G. Shaw The Physics of Stars Second Edition A. C. Phillips Computing for Scient

  2. Statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Rohatgi, Vijay K

    2003-01-01

    Unified treatment of probability and statistics examines and analyzes the relationship between the two fields, exploring inferential issues. Numerous problems, examples, and diagrams--some with solutions--plus clear-cut, highlighted summaries of results. Advanced undergraduate to graduate level. Contents: 1. Introduction. 2. Probability Model. 3. Probability Distributions. 4. Introduction to Statistical Inference. 5. More on Mathematical Expectation. 6. Some Discrete Models. 7. Some Continuous Models. 8. Functions of Random Variables and Random Vectors. 9. Large-Sample Theory. 10. General Meth

  3. AP statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Levine-Wissing, Robin

    2012-01-01

    All Access for the AP® Statistics Exam Book + Web + Mobile Everything you need to prepare for the Advanced Placement® exam, in a study system built around you! There are many different ways to prepare for an Advanced Placement® exam. What's best for you depends on how much time you have to study and how comfortable you are with the subject matter. To score your highest, you need a system that can be customized to fit you: your schedule, your learning style, and your current level of knowledge. This book, and the online tools that come with it, will help you personalize your AP® Statistics prep

  4. Statistical mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Davidson, Norman

    2003-01-01

    Clear and readable, this fine text assists students in achieving a grasp of the techniques and limitations of statistical mechanics. The treatment follows a logical progression from elementary to advanced theories, with careful attention to detail and mathematical development, and is sufficiently rigorous for introductory or intermediate graduate courses.Beginning with a study of the statistical mechanics of ideal gases and other systems of non-interacting particles, the text develops the theory in detail and applies it to the study of chemical equilibrium and the calculation of the thermody

  5. Bias and Causation Models and Judgment for Valid Comparisons

    CERN Document Server

    Weisberg, Herbert I

    2010-01-01

    A one-of-a-kind resource on identifying and dealing with bias in statistical research on causal effects. Do cell phones cause cancer? Can a new curriculum increase student achievement? Determining what the real causes of such problems are, and how powerful their effects may be, are central issues in research across various fields of study. Some researchers are highly skeptical of drawing causal conclusions except in tightly controlled randomized experiments, while others discount the threats posed by different sources of bias, even in less rigorous observational studies. Bias and Causation pre

  6. Presence of bias in radiographer plain film reading performance studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brealey, S.; Scally, A.J.; Thomas, N.B.

    2002-01-01

    Purpose To raise awareness of the frequency of bias that can affect the quality of radiographer plain film reading performance studies. Methods Studies that assessed radiographer(s) plain film reading performance were located by searching electronic databases and grey literature, hand-searching journals, personal communication and scanning reference lists. Thirty studies were judged eligible from all data sources. Results A one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) demonstrates no statistically significant difference (P=0.25) in the mean proportion of biases present from diagnostic accuracy (0.37), performance (0.42) and outcome (0.44) study designs. Pearson's correlation coefficient showed no statistically significant linear association between the proportion of biases present for the three different study designs and the year that the study was performed. The frequency of biases in film and observer selection and application of the reference standard was quite low. In contrast, many biases were present concerning independence of film reporting and comparison of reports for concordance. Conclusions The findings indicate variation in the presence of bias in radiographer plain film reading performance studies. The careful consideration of bias is an essential component of study quality and hence the validity of the evidence-base used to underpin radiographic reporting policy

  7. Exchange bias theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiwi, Miguel

    2001-01-01

    Research on the exchange bias (EB) phenomenon has witnessed a flurry of activity during recent years, which stems from its use in magnetic sensors and as stabilizers in magnetic reading heads. EB was discovered in 1956 but it attracted only limited attention until these applications, closely related to giant magnetoresistance, were developed during the last decade. In this review, I initially give a short introduction, listing the most salient experimental results and what is required from an EB theory. Next, I indicate some of the obstacles in the road towards a satisfactory understanding of the phenomenon. The main body of the text reviews and critically discusses the activity that has flourished, mainly during the last 5 years, in the theoretical front. Finally, an evaluation of the progress made, and a critical assessment as to where we stand nowadays along the road to a satisfactory theory, is presented

  8. Bias modification training can alter approach bias and chocolate consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, Sophie E; Kemps, Eva; Tiggemann, Marika

    2016-01-01

    Recent evidence has demonstrated that bias modification training has potential to reduce cognitive biases for attractive targets and affect health behaviours. The present study investigated whether cognitive bias modification training could be applied to reduce approach bias for chocolate and affect subsequent chocolate consumption. A sample of 120 women (18-27 years) were randomly assigned to an approach-chocolate condition or avoid-chocolate condition, in which they were trained to approach or avoid pictorial chocolate stimuli, respectively. Training had the predicted effect on approach bias, such that participants trained to approach chocolate demonstrated an increased approach bias to chocolate stimuli whereas participants trained to avoid such stimuli showed a reduced bias. Further, participants trained to avoid chocolate ate significantly less of a chocolate muffin in a subsequent taste test than participants trained to approach chocolate. Theoretically, results provide support for the dual process model's conceptualisation of consumption as being driven by implicit processes such as approach bias. In practice, approach bias modification may be a useful component of interventions designed to curb the consumption of unhealthy foods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Statistical Computing

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    inference and finite population sampling. Sudhakar Kunte. Elements of statistical computing are discussed in this series. ... which captain gets an option to decide whether to field first or bat first ... may of course not be fair, in the sense that the team which wins ... describe two methods of drawing a random number between 0.

  10. Statistical thermodynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Schrödinger, Erwin

    1952-01-01

    Nobel Laureate's brilliant attempt to develop a simple, unified standard method of dealing with all cases of statistical thermodynamics - classical, quantum, Bose-Einstein, Fermi-Dirac, and more.The work also includes discussions of Nernst theorem, Planck's oscillator, fluctuations, the n-particle problem, problem of radiation, much more.

  11. Moisture Forecast Bias Correction in GEOS DAS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dee, D.

    1999-01-01

    Data assimilation methods rely on numerous assumptions about the errors involved in measuring and forecasting atmospheric fields. One of the more disturbing of these is that short-term model forecasts are assumed to be unbiased. In case of atmospheric moisture, for example, observational evidence shows that the systematic component of errors in forecasts and analyses is often of the same order of magnitude as the random component. we have implemented a sequential algorithm for estimating forecast moisture bias from rawinsonde data in the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The algorithm is designed to remove the systematic component of analysis errors and can be easily incorporated in an existing statistical data assimilation system. We will present results of initial experiments that show a significant reduction of bias in the GEOS DAS moisture analyses.

  12. Is there gender bias in nursing research?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polit, Denise F; Beck, Cheryl Tatano

    2008-10-01

    Using data from a consecutive sample of 259 studies published in four leading nursing research journals in 2005-2006, we examined whether nurse researchers favor females as study participants. On average, 75.3% of study participants were female, and 38% of studies had all-female samples. The bias favoring female participants was statistically significant and persistent. The bias was observed regardless of funding source, methodological features, and other participant and researcher characteristics, with one exception: studies that had male investigators had more sex-balanced samples. When designing studies, nurse researchers need to pay close attention to who will benefit from their research and to whether they are leaving out a specific group about which there is a gap in knowledge. (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Religious Attitudes and Home Bias

    OpenAIRE

    C. Reggiani; G. Rossini

    2008-01-01

    Home bias affects trade in goods, services and financial assets. It is mostly generated by "natural" trade barriers. Among these dividers we may list many behavioral and sociological factors, such as status quo biases and a few kind of ‘embeddedness’. Unfortunately these factors are difficult to measure. An important part of ‘embeddedness’ may be related to religious attitudes. Is there any relation between economic home bias and religious attitudes at the individual tier? Our aim is to provi...

  14. Spatial Bias in Field-Estimated Unsaturated Hydraulic Properties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HOLT,ROBERT M.; WILSON,JOHN L.; GLASS JR.,ROBERT J.

    2000-12-21

    Hydraulic property measurements often rely on non-linear inversion models whose errors vary between samples. In non-linear physical measurement systems, bias can be directly quantified and removed using calibration standards. In hydrologic systems, field calibration is often infeasible and bias must be quantified indirectly. We use a Monte Carlo error analysis to indirectly quantify spatial bias in the saturated hydraulic conductivity, K{sub s}, and the exponential relative permeability parameter, {alpha}, estimated using a tension infiltrometer. Two types of observation error are considered, along with one inversion-model error resulting from poor contact between the instrument and the medium. Estimates of spatial statistics, including the mean, variance, and variogram-model parameters, show significant bias across a parameter space representative of poorly- to well-sorted silty sand to very coarse sand. When only observation errors are present, spatial statistics for both parameters are best estimated in materials with high hydraulic conductivity, like very coarse sand. When simple contact errors are included, the nature of the bias changes dramatically. Spatial statistics are poorly estimated, even in highly conductive materials. Conditions that permit accurate estimation of the statistics for one of the parameters prevent accurate estimation for the other; accurate regions for the two parameters do not overlap in parameter space. False cross-correlation between estimated parameters is created because estimates of K{sub s} also depend on estimates of {alpha} and both parameters are estimated from the same data.

  15. Bias in clinical intervention research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gluud, Lise Lotte

    2006-01-01

    Research on bias in clinical trials may help identify some of the reasons why investigators sometimes reach the wrong conclusions about intervention effects. Several quality components for the assessment of bias control have been suggested, but although they seem intrinsically valid, empirical...... evidence is needed to evaluate their effects on the extent and direction of bias. This narrative review summarizes the findings of methodological studies on the influence of bias in clinical trials. A number of methodological studies suggest that lack of adequate randomization in published trial reports...

  16. Energy Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    For the years 1992 and 1993, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period. The tables and figures shown in this publication are: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption; Coal consumption; Natural gas consumption; Peat consumption; Domestic oil deliveries; Import prices of oil; Price development of principal oil products; Fuel prices for power production; Total energy consumption by source; Electricity supply; Energy imports by country of origin in 1993; Energy exports by recipient country in 1993; Consumer prices of liquid fuels; Consumer prices of hard coal and natural gas, prices of indigenous fuels; Average electricity price by type of consumer; Price of district heating by type of consumer and Excise taxes and turnover taxes included in consumer prices of some energy sources

  17. Statistical Optics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Joseph W.

    2000-07-01

    The Wiley Classics Library consists of selected books that have become recognized classics in their respective fields. With these new unabridged and inexpensive editions, Wiley hopes to extend the life of these important works by making them available to future generations of mathematicians and scientists. Currently available in the Series: T. W. Anderson The Statistical Analysis of Time Series T. S. Arthanari & Yadolah Dodge Mathematical Programming in Statistics Emil Artin Geometric Algebra Norman T. J. Bailey The Elements of Stochastic Processes with Applications to the Natural Sciences Robert G. Bartle The Elements of Integration and Lebesgue Measure George E. P. Box & Norman R. Draper Evolutionary Operation: A Statistical Method for Process Improvement George E. P. Box & George C. Tiao Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis R. W. Carter Finite Groups of Lie Type: Conjugacy Classes and Complex Characters R. W. Carter Simple Groups of Lie Type William G. Cochran & Gertrude M. Cox Experimental Designs, Second Edition Richard Courant Differential and Integral Calculus, Volume I RIchard Courant Differential and Integral Calculus, Volume II Richard Courant & D. Hilbert Methods of Mathematical Physics, Volume I Richard Courant & D. Hilbert Methods of Mathematical Physics, Volume II D. R. Cox Planning of Experiments Harold S. M. Coxeter Introduction to Geometry, Second Edition Charles W. Curtis & Irving Reiner Representation Theory of Finite Groups and Associative Algebras Charles W. Curtis & Irving Reiner Methods of Representation Theory with Applications to Finite Groups and Orders, Volume I Charles W. Curtis & Irving Reiner Methods of Representation Theory with Applications to Finite Groups and Orders, Volume II Cuthbert Daniel Fitting Equations to Data: Computer Analysis of Multifactor Data, Second Edition Bruno de Finetti Theory of Probability, Volume I Bruno de Finetti Theory of Probability, Volume 2 W. Edwards Deming Sample Design in Business Research

  18. Statistical utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    Pivato, Marcus

    2013-01-01

    We show that, in a sufficiently large population satisfying certain statistical regularities, it is often possible to accurately estimate the utilitarian social welfare function, even if we only have very noisy data about individual utility functions and interpersonal utility comparisons. In particular, we show that it is often possible to identify an optimal or close-to-optimal utilitarian social choice using voting rules such as the Borda rule, approval voting, relative utilitarianism, or a...

  19. Experimental statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Natrella, Mary Gibbons

    1963-01-01

    Formulated to assist scientists and engineers engaged in army ordnance research and development programs, this well-known and highly regarded handbook is a ready reference for advanced undergraduate and graduate students as well as for professionals seeking engineering information and quantitative data for designing, developing, constructing, and testing equipment. Topics include characterizing and comparing the measured performance of a material, product, or process; general considerations in planning experiments; statistical techniques for analyzing extreme-value data; use of transformations

  20. Information environment, behavioral biases, and home bias in analysts’ recommendations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farooq, Omar; Taouss, Mohammed

    2012-01-01

    Can information environment of a firm explain home bias in analysts’ recommendations? Can the extent of agency problems explain optimism difference between foreign and local analysts? This paper answers these questions by documenting the effect of information environment on home bias in analysts’...

  1. Threat bias, not negativity bias, underpins differences in political ideology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lilienfeld, Scott O; Latzman, Robert D

    2014-06-01

    Although disparities in political ideology are rooted partly in dispositional differences, Hibbing et al.'s analysis paints with an overly broad brush. Research on the personality correlates of liberal-conservative differences points not to global differences in negativity bias, but to differences in threat bias, probably emanating from differences in fearfulness. This distinction bears implications for etiological research and persuasion efforts.

  2. Heuristic Biases in Mathematical Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inglis, Matthew; Simpson, Adrian

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we briefly describe the dual process account of reasoning, and explain the role of heuristic biases in human thought. Concentrating on the so-called matching bias effect, we describe a piece of research that indicates a correlation between success at advanced level mathematics and an ability to override innate and misleading…

  3. Gender bias affects forests worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlène Elias; Susan S Hummel; Bimbika S Basnett; Carol J.P. Colfer

    2017-01-01

    Gender biases persist in forestry research and practice. These biases result in reduced scientific rigor and inequitable, ineffective, and less efficient policies, programs, and interventions. Drawing from a two-volume collection of current and classic analyses on gender in forests, we outline five persistent and inter-related themes: gendered governance, tree tenure,...

  4. Anti-Bias Education: Reflections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derman-Sparks, Louise

    2011-01-01

    It is 30 years since NAEYC published "Anti-Bias Curriculum Tools for Empowering Young Children" (Derman-Sparks & ABC Task Force, 1989). Since then, anti-bias education concepts have become part of the early childhood education (ECE) narrative in the United States and many other countries. It has brought a fresh way of thinking about…

  5. Energy statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    World data from the United Nation's latest Energy Statistics Yearbook, first published in our last issue, are completed here. The 1984-86 data were revised and 1987 data added for world commercial energy production and consumption, world natural gas plant liquids production, world LP-gas production, imports, exports, and consumption, world residual fuel oil production, imports, exports, and consumption, world lignite production, imports, exports, and consumption, world peat production and consumption, world electricity production, imports, exports, and consumption (Table 80), and world nuclear electric power production

  6. Publication bias in dermatology systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atakpo, Paul; Vassar, Matt

    2016-05-01

    Systematic reviews and meta-analyses in dermatology provide high-level evidence for clinicians and policy makers that influence clinical decision making and treatment guidelines. One methodological problem with systematic reviews is the under representation of unpublished studies. This problem is due in part to publication bias. Omission of statistically non-significant data from meta-analyses may result in overestimation of treatment effect sizes which may lead to clinical consequences. Our goal was to assess whether systematic reviewers in dermatology evaluate and report publication bias. Further, we wanted to conduct our own evaluation of publication bias on meta-analyses that failed to do so. Our study considered systematic reviews and meta-analyses from ten dermatology journals from 2006 to 2016. A PubMed search was conducted, and all full-text articles that met our inclusion criteria were retrieved and coded by the primary author. 293 articles were included in our analysis. Additionally, we formally evaluated publication bias in meta-analyses that failed to do so using trim and fill and cumulative meta-analysis by precision methods. Publication bias was mentioned in 107 articles (36.5%) and was formally evaluated in 64 articles (21.8%). Visual inspection of a funnel plot was the most common method of evaluating publication bias. Publication bias was present in 45 articles (15.3%), not present in 57 articles (19.5%) and not determined in 191 articles (65.2%). Using the trim and fill method, 7 meta-analyses (33.33%) showed evidence of publication bias. Although the trim and fill method only found evidence of publication bias in 7 meta-analyses, the cumulative meta-analysis by precision method found evidence of publication bias in 15 meta-analyses (71.4%). Many of the reviews in our study did not mention or evaluate publication bias. Further, of the 42 articles that stated following PRISMA reporting guidelines, 19 (45.2%) evaluated for publication bias. In

  7. Angular biasing in implicit Monte-Carlo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimmerman, G.B.

    1994-01-01

    Calculations of indirect drive Inertial Confinement Fusion target experiments require an integrated approach in which laser irradiation and radiation transport in the hohlraum are solved simultaneously with the symmetry, implosion and burn of the fuel capsule. The Implicit Monte Carlo method has proved to be a valuable tool for the two dimensional radiation transport within the hohlraum, but the impact of statistical noise on the symmetric implosion of the small fuel capsule is difficult to overcome. We present an angular biasing technique in which an increased number of low weight photons are directed at the imploding capsule. For typical parameters this reduces the required computer time for an integrated calculation by a factor of 10. An additional factor of 5 can also be achieved by directing even smaller weight photons at the polar regions of the capsule where small mass zones are most sensitive to statistical noise

  8. Cognitive Bias in Systems Verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Steve

    2012-01-01

    Working definition of cognitive bias: Patterns by which information is sought and interpreted that can lead to systematic errors in decisions. Cognitive bias is used in diverse fields: Economics, Politics, Intelligence, Marketing, to name a few. Attempts to ground cognitive science in physical characteristics of the cognitive apparatus exceed our knowledge. Studies based on correlations; strict cause and effect is difficult to pinpoint. Effects cited in the paper and discussed here have been replicated many times over, and appear sound. Many biases have been described, but it is still unclear whether they are all distinct. There may only be a handful of fundamental biases, which manifest in various ways. Bias can effect system verification in many ways . Overconfidence -> Questionable decisions to deploy. Availability -> Inability to conceive critical tests. Representativeness -> Overinterpretation of results. Positive Test Strategies -> Confirmation bias. Debiasing at individual level very difficult. The potential effect of bias on the verification process can be managed, but not eliminated. Worth considering at key points in the process.

  9. Administrative bias in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E S Nwauche

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This article reviews the interpretation of section 6(2(aii of the Promotion of Administrative Justice Act which makes an administrator “biased or reasonably suspected of bias” a ground of judicial review. In this regard, the paper reviews the determination of administrative bias in South Africa especially highlighting the concept of institutional bias. The paper notes that inspite of the formulation of the bias ground of review the test for administrative bias is the reasonable apprehension test laid down in the case of President of South Africa v South African Rugby Football Union(2 which on close examination is not the same thing. Accordingly the paper urges an alternative interpretation that is based on the reasonable suspicion test enunciated in BTR Industries South Africa (Pty Ltd v Metal and Allied Workers Union and R v Roberts. Within this context, the paper constructs a model for interpreting the bias ground of review that combines the reasonable suspicion test as interpreted in BTR Industries and R v Roberts, the possibility of the waiver of administrative bias, the curative mechanism of administrative appeal as well as some level of judicial review exemplified by the jurisprudence of article 6(1 of the European Convention of Human Rights, especially in the light of the contemplation of the South African Magistrate Court as a jurisdictional route of judicial review.

  10. Empirical Comparison of Publication Bias Tests in Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Lifeng; Chu, Haitao; Murad, Mohammad Hassan; Hong, Chuan; Qu, Zhiyong; Cole, Stephen R; Chen, Yong

    2018-04-16

    Decision makers rely on meta-analytic estimates to trade off benefits and harms. Publication bias impairs the validity and generalizability of such estimates. The performance of various statistical tests for publication bias has been largely compared using simulation studies and has not been systematically evaluated in empirical data. This study compares seven commonly used publication bias tests (i.e., Begg's rank test, trim-and-fill, Egger's, Tang's, Macaskill's, Deeks', and Peters' regression tests) based on 28,655 meta-analyses available in the Cochrane Library. Egger's regression test detected publication bias more frequently than other tests (15.7% in meta-analyses of binary outcomes and 13.5% in meta-analyses of non-binary outcomes). The proportion of statistically significant publication bias tests was greater for larger meta-analyses, especially for Begg's rank test and the trim-and-fill method. The agreement among Tang's, Macaskill's, Deeks', and Peters' regression tests for binary outcomes was moderately strong (most κ's were around 0.6). Tang's and Deeks' tests had fairly similar performance (κ > 0.9). The agreement among Begg's rank test, the trim-and-fill method, and Egger's regression test was weak or moderate (κ < 0.5). Given the relatively low agreement between many publication bias tests, meta-analysts should not rely on a single test and may apply multiple tests with various assumptions. Non-statistical approaches to evaluating publication bias (e.g., searching clinical trials registries, records of drug approving agencies, and scientific conference proceedings) remain essential.

  11. Critical Thinking and Cognitive Bias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Maynes

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Teaching critical thinking skill is a central pedagogical aim in many courses. These skills, it is hoped, will be both portable (applicable in a wide range of contexts and durable (not forgotten quickly. Yet, both of these virtues are challenged by pervasive and potent cognitive biases, such as motivated reasoning, false consensus bias and hindsight bias. In this paper, I argue that a focus on the development of metacognitive skill shows promise as a means to inculcate debiasing habits in students. Such habits will help students become more critical reasoners. I close with suggestions for implementing this strategy.

  12. A comparator-hypothesis account of biased contingency detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadillo, Miguel A; Barberia, Itxaso

    2018-02-12

    Our ability to detect statistical dependencies between different events in the environment is strongly biased by the number of coincidences between them. Even when there is no true covariation between a cue and an outcome, if the marginal probability of either of them is high, people tend to perceive some degree of statistical contingency between both events. The present paper explores the ability of the Comparator Hypothesis to explain the general pattern of results observed in this literature. Our simulations show that this model can account for the biasing effects of the marginal probabilities of cues and outcomes. Furthermore, the overall fit of the Comparator Hypothesis to a sample of experimental conditions from previous studies is comparable to that of the popular Rescorla-Wagner model. These results should encourage researchers to further explore and put to the test the predictions of the Comparator Hypothesis in the domain of biased contingency detection. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. An introduction to Bartlett correction and bias reduction

    CERN Document Server

    Cordeiro, Gauss M

    2014-01-01

    This book presents a concise introduction to Bartlett and Bartlett-type corrections of statistical tests and bias correction of point estimators. The underlying idea behind both groups of corrections is to obtain higher accuracy in small samples. While the main focus is on corrections that can be analytically derived, the authors also present alternative strategies for improving estimators and tests based on bootstrap, a data resampling technique, and discuss concrete applications to several important statistical models.

  14. National Statistical Commission and Indian Official Statistics*

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    a good collection of official statistics of that time. With more .... statistical agencies and institutions to provide details of statistical activities .... ing several training programmes. .... ful completion of Indian Statistical Service examinations, the.

  15. Statistical implications in Monte Carlo depletions - 051

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhiwen, Xu; Rhodes, J.; Smith, K.

    2010-01-01

    As a result of steady advances of computer power, continuous-energy Monte Carlo depletion analysis is attracting considerable attention for reactor burnup calculations. The typical Monte Carlo analysis is set up as a combination of a Monte Carlo neutron transport solver and a fuel burnup solver. Note that the burnup solver is a deterministic module. The statistical errors in Monte Carlo solutions are introduced into nuclide number densities and propagated along fuel burnup. This paper is towards the understanding of the statistical implications in Monte Carlo depletions, including both statistical bias and statistical variations in depleted fuel number densities. The deterministic Studsvik lattice physics code, CASMO-5, is modified to model the Monte Carlo depletion. The statistical bias in depleted number densities is found to be negligible compared to its statistical variations, which, in turn, demonstrates the correctness of the Monte Carlo depletion method. Meanwhile, the statistical variation in number densities generally increases with burnup. Several possible ways of reducing the statistical errors are discussed: 1) to increase the number of individual Monte Carlo histories; 2) to increase the number of time steps; 3) to run additional independent Monte Carlo depletion cases. Finally, a new Monte Carlo depletion methodology, called the batch depletion method, is proposed, which consists of performing a set of independent Monte Carlo depletions and is thus capable of estimating the overall statistical errors including both the local statistical error and the propagated statistical error. (authors)

  16. Bias in regression coefficient estimates upon different treatments of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MS and PW consistently overestimated the population parameter. EM and RI, on the other hand, tended to consistently underestimate the population parameter under non-monotonic pattern. Keywords: Missing data, bias, regression, percent missing, non-normality, missing pattern > East African Journal of Statistics Vol.

  17. Obesity, the endocannabinoid system, and bias arising from pharmaceutical sponsorship.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M McPartland

    Full Text Available Previous research has shown that academic physicians conflicted by funding from the pharmaceutical industry have corrupted evidence based medicine and helped enlarge the market for drugs. Physicians made pharmaceutical-friendly statements, engaged in disease mongering, and signed biased review articles ghost-authored by corporate employees. This paper tested the hypothesis that bias affects review articles regarding rimonabant, an anti-obesity drug that blocks the central cannabinoid receptor.A MEDLINE search was performed for rimonabant review articles, limited to articles authored by USA physicians who served as consultants for the company that manufactures rimonabant. Extracted articles were examined for industry-friendly bias, identified by three methods: analysis with a validated instrument for monitoring bias in continuing medical education (CME; analysis for bias defined as statements that ran contrary to external evidence; and a tally of misrepresentations about the endocannabinoid system. Eight review articles were identified, but only three disclosed authors' financial conflicts of interest, despite easily accessible information to the contrary. The Takhar CME bias instrument demonstrated statistically significant bias in all the review articles. Biased statements that were nearly identical reappeared in the articles, including disease mongering, exaggerating rimonabant's efficacy and safety, lack of criticisms regarding rimonabant clinical trials, and speculations about surrogate markers stated as facts. Distinctive and identical misrepresentations regarding the endocannabinoid system also reappeared in articles by different authors.The findings are characteristic of bias that arises from financial conflicts of interest, and suggestive of ghostwriting by a common author. Resolutions for this scenario are proposed.

  18. Stupid statistics!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellinghuisen, Joel

    2008-01-01

    The method of least squares is probably the most powerful data analysis tool available to scientists. Toward a fuller appreciation of that power, this work begins with an elementary review of statistics fundamentals, and then progressively increases in sophistication as the coverage is extended to the theory and practice of linear and nonlinear least squares. The results are illustrated in application to data analysis problems important in the life sciences. The review of fundamentals includes the role of sampling and its connection to probability distributions, the Central Limit Theorem, and the importance of finite variance. Linear least squares are presented using matrix notation, and the significance of the key probability distributions-Gaussian, chi-square, and t-is illustrated with Monte Carlo calculations. The meaning of correlation is discussed, including its role in the propagation of error. When the data themselves are correlated, special methods are needed for the fitting, as they are also when fitting with constraints. Nonlinear fitting gives rise to nonnormal parameter distributions, but the 10% Rule of Thumb suggests that such problems will be insignificant when the parameter is sufficiently well determined. Illustrations include calibration with linear and nonlinear response functions, the dangers inherent in fitting inverted data (e.g., Lineweaver-Burk equation), an analysis of the reliability of the van't Hoff analysis, the problem of correlated data in the Guggenheim method, and the optimization of isothermal titration calorimetry procedures using the variance-covariance matrix for experiment design. The work concludes with illustrations on assessing and presenting results.

  19. Preferences, country bias, and international trade

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Roy (Santanu); J.M.A. Viaene (Jean-Marie)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractAnalyzes international trade where consumer preferences exhibit country bias. Why country biases arise; How trade can occur in the presence of country bias; Implication for the pattern of trade and specialization.

  20. Sources of method bias in social science research and recommendations on how to control it.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podsakoff, Philip M; MacKenzie, Scott B; Podsakoff, Nathan P

    2012-01-01

    Despite the concern that has been expressed about potential method biases, and the pervasiveness of research settings with the potential to produce them, there is disagreement about whether they really are a problem for researchers in the behavioral sciences. Therefore, the purpose of this review is to explore the current state of knowledge about method biases. First, we explore the meaning of the terms "method" and "method bias" and then we examine whether method biases influence all measures equally. Next, we review the evidence of the effects that method biases have on individual measures and on the covariation between different constructs. Following this, we evaluate the procedural and statistical remedies that have been used to control method biases and provide recommendations for minimizing method bias.

  1. The disagreeable behaviour of the kappa statistic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flight, Laura; Julious, Steven A

    2015-01-01

    It is often of interest to measure the agreement between a number of raters when an outcome is nominal or ordinal. The kappa statistic is used as a measure of agreement. The statistic is highly sensitive to the distribution of the marginal totals and can produce unreliable results. Other statistics such as the proportion of concordance, maximum attainable kappa and prevalence and bias adjusted kappa should be considered to indicate how well the kappa statistic represents agreement in the data. Each kappa should be considered and interpreted based on the context of the data being analysed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Negativity Bias in Dangerous Drivers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Chai

    Full Text Available The behavioral and cognitive characteristics of dangerous drivers differ significantly from those of safe drivers. However, differences in emotional information processing have seldom been investigated. Previous studies have revealed that drivers with higher anger/anxiety trait scores are more likely to be involved in crashes and that individuals with higher anger traits exhibit stronger negativity biases when processing emotions compared with control groups. However, researchers have not explored the relationship between emotional information processing and driving behavior. In this study, we examined the emotional information processing differences between dangerous drivers and safe drivers. Thirty-eight non-professional drivers were divided into two groups according to the penalty points that they had accrued for traffic violations: 15 drivers with 6 or more points were included in the dangerous driver group, and 23 drivers with 3 or fewer points were included in the safe driver group. The emotional Stroop task was used to measure negativity biases, and both behavioral and electroencephalograph data were recorded. The behavioral results revealed stronger negativity biases in the dangerous drivers than in the safe drivers. The bias score was correlated with self-reported dangerous driving behavior. Drivers with strong negativity biases reported having been involved in mores crashes compared with the less-biased drivers. The event-related potentials (ERPs revealed that the dangerous drivers exhibited reduced P3 components when responding to negative stimuli, suggesting decreased inhibitory control of information that is task-irrelevant but emotionally salient. The influence of negativity bias provides one possible explanation of the effects of individual differences on dangerous driving behavior and traffic crashes.

  3. Publication Bias in Meta-Analyses of the Efficacy of Psychotherapeutic Interventions for Depression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemeyer, Helen; Musch, Jochen; Pietrowsky, Reinhard

    2013-01-01

    Objective: The aim of this study was to assess whether systematic reviews investigating psychotherapeutic interventions for depression are affected by publication bias. Only homogeneous data sets were included, as heterogeneous data sets can distort statistical tests of publication bias. Method: We applied Begg and Mazumdar's adjusted rank…

  4. TCABR Tokamak scrape-off layer turbulence with DC biasing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heller, M.V.A.P.; Ferreira, A.A.; Caldas, I.L.; Nascimento, I.C.

    2004-01-01

    Turbulence and particle transport in plasma scrape-off layer have been controlled by external electric fields. This control can be achieved by a biasing electrode located inside the plasma. We investigate plasma turbulence changes in the scrape-off layer of TCABR tokamak introduced by DC biasing an electrode inside the plasma. Our investigation is based on the alterations observed on the wavelet power spectra and on the intermittent burst sequences of plasma potential and density fluctuations measured by a set of Langmuir probes. Biasing the electrode changes the turbulence statistics and the bursts intermittence. With the imposed external electric field, fluctuation amplitudes, phase velocities, and anomalous particle transport are modified. Transport reduction for higher frequencies induced by the biasing could be due to the strong de-phasing between density and potential fluctuations. The mode coupling increases with the perturbation for the high frequency broadband fluctuations. The total (laminar and bursting) radial particle transport is reduced by about 25% by DC biasing. Bursts contribution to total transport is 15% and for the studied conditions this contribution does not change much with the bias perturbation

  5. Comparison of stability statistics for yield in barley (Hordeum vulgare ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2010-03-15

    Mar 15, 2010 ... statistics and yield indicated that only TOP method would be useful for simultaneously selecting for high yield and ... metric stability methods; i) they reduce the bias caused by outliers, ii) ...... Biometrics, 43: 45-53. Sabaghnia N ...

  6. Numerical value biases sound localization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golob, Edward J; Lewald, Jörg; Getzmann, Stephan; Mock, Jeffrey R

    2017-12-08

    Speech recognition starts with representations of basic acoustic perceptual features and ends by categorizing the sound based on long-term memory for word meaning. However, little is known about whether the reverse pattern of lexical influences on basic perception can occur. We tested for a lexical influence on auditory spatial perception by having subjects make spatial judgments of number stimuli. Four experiments used pointing or left/right 2-alternative forced choice tasks to examine perceptual judgments of sound location as a function of digit magnitude (1-9). The main finding was that for stimuli presented near the median plane there was a linear left-to-right bias for localizing smaller-to-larger numbers. At lateral locations there was a central-eccentric location bias in the pointing task, and either a bias restricted to the smaller numbers (left side) or no significant number bias (right side). Prior number location also biased subsequent number judgments towards the opposite side. Findings support a lexical influence on auditory spatial perception, with a linear mapping near midline and more complex relations at lateral locations. Results may reflect coding of dedicated spatial channels, with two representing lateral positions in each hemispace, and the midline area represented by either their overlap or a separate third channel.

  7. Bias correction for rainrate retrievals from satellite passive microwave sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Short, David A.

    1990-01-01

    Rainrates retrieved from past and present satellite-borne microwave sensors are affected by a fundamental remote sensing problem. Sensor fields-of-view are typically large enough to encompass substantial rainrate variability, whereas the retrieval algorithms, based on radiative transfer calculations, show a non-linear relationship between rainrate and microwave brightness temperature. Retrieved rainrates are systematically too low. A statistical model of the bias problem shows that bias correction factors depend on the probability distribution of instantaneous rainrate and on the average thickness of the rain layer.

  8. A MORET tool to assist code bias estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernex, F.; Richet, Y.; Letang, E.

    2003-01-01

    This new Graphical User Interface (GUI) developed in JAVA is one of the post-processing tools for MORET4 code. It aims to help users to estimate the importance of the k eff bias due to the code in order to better define the upper safety limit. Moreover, it allows visualizing the distance between an actual configuration case and evaluated critical experiments. This tool depends on a validated experiments database, on sets of physical parameters and on various statistical tools allowing interpolating the calculation bias of the database or displaying the projections of experiments on a reduced base of parameters. The development of this tool is still in progress. (author)

  9. Codon Bias Patterns of E. coli's Interacting Proteins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maddalena Dilucca

    Full Text Available Synonymous codons, i.e., DNA nucleotide triplets coding for the same amino acid, are used differently across the variety of living organisms. The biological meaning of this phenomenon, known as codon usage bias, is still controversial. In order to shed light on this point, we propose a new codon bias index, CompAI, that is based on the competition between cognate and near-cognate tRNAs during translation, without being tuned to the usage bias of highly expressed genes. We perform a genome-wide evaluation of codon bias for E.coli, comparing CompAI with other widely used indices: tAI, CAI, and Nc. We show that CompAI and tAI capture similar information by being positively correlated with gene conservation, measured by the Evolutionary Retention Index (ERI, and essentiality, whereas, CAI and Nc appear to be less sensitive to evolutionary-functional parameters. Notably, the rate of variation of tAI and CompAI with ERI allows to obtain sets of genes that consistently belong to specific clusters of orthologous genes (COGs. We also investigate the correlation of codon bias at the genomic level with the network features of protein-protein interactions in E.coli. We find that the most densely connected communities of the network share a similar level of codon bias (as measured by CompAI and tAI. Conversely, a small difference in codon bias between two genes is, statistically, a prerequisite for the corresponding proteins to interact. Importantly, among all codon bias indices, CompAI turns out to have the most coherent distribution over the communities of the interactome, pointing to the significance of competition among cognate and near-cognate tRNAs for explaining codon usage adaptation. Notably, CompAI may potentially correlate with translation speed measurements, by accounting for the specific delay induced by wobble-pairing between codons and anticodons.

  10. Bias-limited extraction of cosmological parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shimon, Meir; Itzhaki, Nissan; Rephaeli, Yoel, E-mail: meirs@wise.tau.ac.il, E-mail: nitzhaki@post.tau.ac.il, E-mail: yoelr@wise.tau.ac.il [School of Physics and Astronomy, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978 (Israel)

    2013-03-01

    It is known that modeling uncertainties and astrophysical foregrounds can potentially introduce appreciable bias in the deduced values of cosmological parameters. While it is commonly assumed that these uncertainties will be accounted for to a sufficient level of precision, the level of bias has not been properly quantified in most cases of interest. We show that the requirement that the bias in derived values of cosmological parameters does not surpass nominal statistical error, translates into a maximal level of overall error O(N{sup −½}) on |ΔP(k)|/P(k) and |ΔC{sub l}|/C{sub l}, where P(k), C{sub l}, and N are the matter power spectrum, angular power spectrum, and number of (independent Fourier) modes at a given scale l or k probed by the cosmological survey, respectively. This required level has important consequences on the precision with which cosmological parameters are hoped to be determined by future surveys: in virtually all ongoing and near future surveys N typically falls in the range 10{sup 6}−10{sup 9}, implying that the required overall theoretical modeling and numerical precision is already very high. Future redshifted-21-cm observations, projected to sample ∼ 10{sup 14} modes, will require knowledge of the matter power spectrum to a fantastic 10{sup −7} precision level. We conclude that realizing the expected potential of future cosmological surveys, which aim at detecting 10{sup 6}−10{sup 14} modes, sets the formidable challenge of reducing the overall level of uncertainty to 10{sup −3}−10{sup −7}.

  11. Hybrid biasing approaches for global variance reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Zeyun; Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.

    2013-01-01

    A new variant of Monte Carlo—deterministic (DT) hybrid variance reduction approach based on Gaussian process theory is presented for accelerating convergence of Monte Carlo simulation and compared with Forward-Weighted Consistent Adjoint Driven Importance Sampling (FW-CADIS) approach implemented in the SCALE package from Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The new approach, denoted the Gaussian process approach, treats the responses of interest as normally distributed random processes. The Gaussian process approach improves the selection of the weight windows of simulated particles by identifying a subspace that captures the dominant sources of statistical response variations. Like the FW-CADIS approach, the Gaussian process approach utilizes particle importance maps obtained from deterministic adjoint models to derive weight window biasing. In contrast to the FW-CADIS approach, the Gaussian process approach identifies the response correlations (via a covariance matrix) and employs them to reduce the computational overhead required for global variance reduction (GVR) purpose. The effective rank of the covariance matrix identifies the minimum number of uncorrelated pseudo responses, which are employed to bias simulated particles. Numerical experiments, serving as a proof of principle, are presented to compare the Gaussian process and FW-CADIS approaches in terms of the global reduction in standard deviation of the estimated responses. - Highlights: ► Hybrid Monte Carlo Deterministic Method based on Gaussian Process Model is introduced. ► Method employs deterministic model to calculate responses correlations. ► Method employs correlations to bias Monte Carlo transport. ► Method compared to FW-CADIS methodology in SCALE code. ► An order of magnitude speed up is achieved for a PWR core model.

  12. News Consumption and Media Bias

    OpenAIRE

    Yi Xiang; Miklos Sarvary

    2007-01-01

    Bias in the market for news is well-documented. Recent research in economics explains the phenomenon by assuming that consumers want to read (watch) news that is consistent with their tastes or prior beliefs rather than the truth. The present paper builds on this idea but recognizes that (i) besides “biased” consumers, there are also “conscientious” consumers whose sole interest is in discovering the truth, and (ii) consistent with reality, media bias is constrained by the truth. These two fa...

  13. Biased limiter experiments on text

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, P.E.; Wootton, A.J.; Rowan, W.L.; Ritz, C.P.; Rhodes, T.L.; Bengtson, R.D.; Hodge, W.L.; Durst, R.D.; McCool, S.C.; Richards, B.; Gentle, K.W.; Schoch, P.; Forster, J.C.; Hickok, R.L.; Evans, T.E.

    1987-01-01

    Experiments using an electrically biased limiter have been performed on the Texas Experimental Tokamak (TEXT). A small movable limiter is inserted past the main poloidal ring limiter (which is electrically connected to the vacuum vessel) and biased at V Lim with respect to it. The floating potential, plasma potential and shear layer position can be controlled. With vertical strokeV Lim vertical stroke ≥ 50 V the plasma density increases. For V Lim Lim > 0 the results obtained are inconclusive. Variation of V Lim changes the electrostatic turbulence which may explain the observed total flux changes. (orig.)

  14. The coalitional value theory of antigay bias

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Winegard, Bo; Reynolds, Tania; Baumeister, Roy F.; Plant, E. Ashby

    2016-01-01

    Research indicates that antigay bias follows a specific pattern (and probably has throughout written history, at least in the West): (a) men evince more antigay bias than women; (b) men who belong to traditionally male coalitions evince more antigay bias than those who do not; (c) antigay bias is

  15. The Effects and Side-Effects of Statistics Education: Psychology Students' (Mis-)Conceptions of Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsanyi, Kinga; Primi, Caterina; Chiesi, Francesca; Handley, Simon

    2009-01-01

    In three studies we looked at two typical misconceptions of probability: the representativeness heuristic, and the equiprobability bias. The literature on statistics education predicts that some typical errors and biases (e.g., the equiprobability bias) increase with education, whereas others decrease. This is in contrast with reasoning theorists'…

  16. An experimental verification of laser-velocimeter sampling bias and its correction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, D. A.; Modarress, D.; Owen, F. K.

    1982-01-01

    The existence of 'sampling bias' in individual-realization laser velocimeter measurements is experimentally verified and shown to be independent of sample rate. The experiments were performed in a simple two-stream mixing shear flow with the standard for comparison being laser-velocimeter results obtained under continuous-wave conditions. It is also demonstrated that the errors resulting from sampling bias can be removed by a proper interpretation of the sampling statistics. In addition, data obtained in a shock-induced separated flow and in the near-wake of airfoils are presented, both bias-corrected and uncorrected, to illustrate the effects of sampling bias in the extreme.

  17. Survivor bias in Mendelian randomization analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vansteelandt, Stijn; Dukes, Oliver; Martinussen, Torben

    2017-01-01

    Mendelian randomization studies employ genotypes as experimental handles to infer the effect of genetically modified exposures (e.g. vitamin D exposure) on disease outcomes (e.g. mortality). The statistical analysis of these studies makes use of the standard instrumental variables framework. Many...... of these studies focus on elderly populations, thereby ignoring the problem of left truncation, which arises due to the selection of study participants being conditional upon surviving up to the time of study onset. Such selection, in general, invalidates the assumptions on which the instrumental variables...... analysis rests. We show that Mendelian randomization studies of adult or elderly populations will therefore, in general, return biased estimates of the exposure effect when the considered genotype affects mortality; in contrast, standard tests of the causal null hypothesis that the exposure does not affect...

  18. Information filtering via biased heat conduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jian-Guo; Zhou, Tao; Guo, Qiang

    2011-09-01

    The process of heat conduction has recently found application in personalized recommendation [Zhou , Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA PNASA60027-842410.1073/pnas.1000488107107, 4511 (2010)], which is of high diversity but low accuracy. By decreasing the temperatures of small-degree objects, we present an improved algorithm, called biased heat conduction, which could simultaneously enhance the accuracy and diversity. Extensive experimental analyses demonstrate that the accuracy on MovieLens, Netflix, and Delicious datasets could be improved by 43.5%, 55.4% and 19.2%, respectively, compared with the standard heat conduction algorithm and also the diversity is increased or approximately unchanged. Further statistical analyses suggest that the present algorithm could simultaneously identify users' mainstream and special tastes, resulting in better performance than the standard heat conduction algorithm. This work provides a creditable way for highly efficient information filtering.

  19. Biased Brownian dynamics for rate constant calculation.

    OpenAIRE

    Zou, G; Skeel, R D; Subramaniam, S

    2000-01-01

    An enhanced sampling method-biased Brownian dynamics-is developed for the calculation of diffusion-limited biomolecular association reaction rates with high energy or entropy barriers. Biased Brownian dynamics introduces a biasing force in addition to the electrostatic force between the reactants, and it associates a probability weight with each trajectory. A simulation loses weight when movement is along the biasing force and gains weight when movement is against the biasing force. The sampl...

  20. Exploring Attribution Theory and Bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Jessica A.

    2017-01-01

    Courses: This activity can be used in a wide range of classes, including interpersonal communication, introduction to communication, and small group communication. Objectives: After completing this activity, students should be able to: (1) define attribution theory, personality attribution, situational attribution, and attribution bias; (2)…

  1. Ratio Bias and Policy Preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Tue

    2016-01-01

    Numbers permeate modern political communication. While current scholarship on framing effects has focused on the persuasive effects of words and arguments, this article shows that framing of numbers can also substantially affect policy preferences. Such effects are caused by ratio bias, which...

  2. Bias in Peripheral Depression Biomarkers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carvalho, André F; Köhler, Cristiano A; Brunoni, André R

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To aid in the differentiation of individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD) from healthy controls, numerous peripheral biomarkers have been proposed. To date, no comprehensive evaluation of the existence of bias favoring the publication of significant results or inflating effect...

  3. Minimum Bias Trigger in ATLAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwee, Regina

    2010-01-01

    Since the restart of the LHC in November 2009, ATLAS has collected inelastic pp collisions to perform first measurements on charged particle densities. These measurements will help to constrain various models describing phenomenologically soft parton interactions. Understanding the trigger efficiencies for different event types are therefore crucial to minimize any possible bias in the event selection. ATLAS uses two main minimum bias triggers, featuring complementary detector components and trigger levels. While a hardware based first trigger level situated in the forward regions with 2.2 < |η| < 3.8 has been proven to select pp-collisions very efficiently, the Inner Detector based minimum bias trigger uses a random seed on filled bunches and central tracking detectors for the event selection. Both triggers were essential for the analysis of kinematic spectra of charged particles. Their performance and trigger efficiency measurements as well as studies on possible bias sources will be presented. We also highlight the advantage of these triggers for particle correlation analyses. (author)

  4. Gender bias in teaching evaluations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mengel, Friederike; Sauermann, Jan; Zölitz, Ulf Zoelitz

    2017-01-01

    This paper provides new evidence on gender bias in teaching evaluations. We exploit a quasi-experimental dataset of 19,952 student evaluations of university faculty in a context where students are randomly allocated to female or male instructors. Despite the fact that neither students’ grades nor

  5. Attentional Bias in Math Anxiety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orly eRubinsten

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive theory from the field of general anxiety suggests that the tendency to display attentional bias toward negative information results in anxiety. Accordingly, the current study aims to investigate whether attentional bias is involved in math anxiety as well (i.e., a persistent negative reaction to math. Twenty seven participants (14 with high levels of math anxiety and 13 with low levels of math anxiety were presented with a novel computerized numerical version of the well established dot probe task. One of 6 types of prime stimuli, either math related or typically neutral, were presented on one side of a computer screen. The prime was preceded by a probe (either one or two asterisks that appeared in either the prime or the opposite location. Participants had to discriminate probe identity (one or two asterisks. Math anxious individuals reacted faster when the probe was at the location of the numerical related stimuli. This suggests the existence of attentional bias in math anxiety. That is, for math anxious individuals, the cognitive system selectively favored the processing of emotionally negative information (i.e., math related words. These findings suggest that attentional bias is linked to unduly intense math anxiety symptoms.

  6. Attentional bias in math anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubinsten, Orly; Eidlin, Hili; Wohl, Hadas; Akibli, Orly

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive theory from the field of general anxiety suggests that the tendency to display attentional bias toward negative information results in anxiety. Accordingly, the current study aims to investigate whether attentional bias is involved in math anxiety (MA) as well (i.e., a persistent negative reaction to math). Twenty seven participants (14 with high levels of MA and 13 with low levels of MA) were presented with a novel computerized numerical version of the well established dot probe task. One of six types of prime stimuli, either math related or typically neutral, was presented on one side of a computer screen. The prime was preceded by a probe (either one or two asterisks) that appeared in either the prime or the opposite location. Participants had to discriminate probe identity (one or two asterisks). Math anxious individuals reacted faster when the probe was at the location of the numerical related stimuli. This suggests the existence of attentional bias in MA. That is, for math anxious individuals, the cognitive system selectively favored the processing of emotionally negative information (i.e., math related words). These findings suggest that attentional bias is linked to unduly intense MA symptoms.

  7. Perception bias in route choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vreeswijk, Jacob Dirk; Thomas, Tom; van Berkum, Eric C.; van Arem, Bart

    2014-01-01

    Travel time is probably one of the most studied attributes in route choice. Recently, perception of travel time received more attention as several studies have shown its importance in explaining route choice behavior. In particular, travel time estimates by travelers appear to be biased against

  8. Biased sampling, over-identified parameter problems and beyond

    CERN Document Server

    Qin, Jing

    2017-01-01

    This book is devoted to biased sampling problems (also called choice-based sampling in Econometrics parlance) and over-identified parameter estimation problems. Biased sampling problems appear in many areas of research, including Medicine, Epidemiology and Public Health, the Social Sciences and Economics. The book addresses a range of important topics, including case and control studies, causal inference, missing data problems, meta-analysis, renewal process and length biased sampling problems, capture and recapture problems, case cohort studies, exponential tilting genetic mixture models etc. The goal of this book is to make it easier for Ph. D students and new researchers to get started in this research area. It will be of interest to all those who work in the health, biological, social and physical sciences, as well as those who are interested in survey methodology and other areas of statistical science, among others. .

  9. Correction of stream quality trends for the effects of laboratory measurement bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Richard B.; Smith, Richard A.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

    1993-01-01

    We present a statistical model relating measurements of water quality to associated errors in laboratory methods. Estimation of the model allows us to correct trends in water quality for long-term and short-term variations in laboratory measurement errors. An illustration of the bias correction method for a large national set of stream water quality and quality assurance data shows that reductions in the bias of estimates of water quality trend slopes are achieved at the expense of increases in the variance of these estimates. Slight improvements occur in the precision of estimates of trend in bias by using correlative information on bias and water quality to estimate random variations in measurement bias. The results of this investigation stress the need for reliable, long-term quality assurance data and efficient statistical methods to assess the effects of measurement errors on the detection of water quality trends.

  10. Bias in the physical examination of patients with lumbar radiculopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katz Jeffrey N

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background No prior studies have examined systematic bias in the musculoskeletal physical examination. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of bias due to prior knowledge of lumbar spine magnetic resonance imaging findings (MRI on perceived diagnostic accuracy of the physical examination for lumbar radiculopathy. Methods This was a cross-sectional comparison of the performance characteristics of the physical examination with blinding to MRI results (the 'independent group' with performance in the situation where the physical examination was not blinded to MRI results (the 'non-independent group'. The reference standard was the final diagnostic impression of nerve root impingement by the examining physician. Subjects were recruited from a hospital-based outpatient specialty spine clinic. All adults age 18 and older presenting with lower extremity radiating pain of duration ≤ 12 weeks were evaluated for participation. 154 consecutively recruited subjects with lumbar disk herniation confirmed by lumbar spine MRI were included in this study. Sensitivities and specificities with 95% confidence intervals were calculated in the independent and non-independent groups for the four components of the radiculopathy examination: 1 provocative testing, 2 motor strength testing, 3 pinprick sensory testing, and 4 deep tendon reflex testing. Results The perceived sensitivity of sensory testing was higher with prior knowledge of MRI results (20% vs. 36%; p = 0.05. Sensitivities and specificities for exam components otherwise showed no statistically significant differences between groups. Conclusions Prior knowledge of lumbar MRI results may introduce bias into the pinprick sensory testing component of the physical examination for lumbar radiculopathy. No statistically significant effect of bias was seen for other components of the physical examination. The effect of bias due to prior knowledge of lumbar MRI results should be considered

  11. Bias in the physical examination of patients with lumbar radiculopathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background No prior studies have examined systematic bias in the musculoskeletal physical examination. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of bias due to prior knowledge of lumbar spine magnetic resonance imaging findings (MRI) on perceived diagnostic accuracy of the physical examination for lumbar radiculopathy. Methods This was a cross-sectional comparison of the performance characteristics of the physical examination with blinding to MRI results (the 'independent group') with performance in the situation where the physical examination was not blinded to MRI results (the 'non-independent group'). The reference standard was the final diagnostic impression of nerve root impingement by the examining physician. Subjects were recruited from a hospital-based outpatient specialty spine clinic. All adults age 18 and older presenting with lower extremity radiating pain of duration ≤ 12 weeks were evaluated for participation. 154 consecutively recruited subjects with lumbar disk herniation confirmed by lumbar spine MRI were included in this study. Sensitivities and specificities with 95% confidence intervals were calculated in the independent and non-independent groups for the four components of the radiculopathy examination: 1) provocative testing, 2) motor strength testing, 3) pinprick sensory testing, and 4) deep tendon reflex testing. Results The perceived sensitivity of sensory testing was higher with prior knowledge of MRI results (20% vs. 36%; p = 0.05). Sensitivities and specificities for exam components otherwise showed no statistically significant differences between groups. Conclusions Prior knowledge of lumbar MRI results may introduce bias into the pinprick sensory testing component of the physical examination for lumbar radiculopathy. No statistically significant effect of bias was seen for other components of the physical examination. The effect of bias due to prior knowledge of lumbar MRI results should be considered when an isolated

  12. Childhood Cancer Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Watchdog Ratings Feedback Contact Select Page Childhood Cancer Statistics Home > Cancer Resources > Childhood Cancer Statistics Childhood Cancer Statistics – Graphs and Infographics Number of Diagnoses Incidence Rates ...

  13. Statistical analysis of angular correlation measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, R.A.A.M. de.

    1986-01-01

    Obtaining the multipole mixing ratio, δ, of γ transitions in angular correlation measurements is a statistical problem characterized by the small number of angles in which the observation is made and by the limited statistic of counting, α. The inexistence of a sufficient statistics for the estimator of δ, is shown. Three different estimators for δ were constructed and their properties of consistency, bias and efficiency were tested. Tests were also performed in experimental results obtained in γ-γ directional correlation measurements. (Author) [pt

  14. Detection of bias in animal model pedigree indices of heifers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. LIDAUER

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study was to test whether the pedigree indices (PI of heifers are biased, and if so, whether the magnitude of the bias varies in different groups of heifers. Therefore, two animal model evaluations with two different data sets were computed. Data with all the records from the national evaluation in December 1994 was used to obtain estimated breeding values (EBV for 305-days' milk yield and protein yield. In the second evaluation, the PIs were estimated for cows calving the first time in 1993 by excluding all their production records from the data. Three different statistics, a simple t-test, the linear regression of EBV on PI, and the polynomial regression of the difference in the predictions (EBV-PI on PI, were computed for three groups of first parity Ayrshire cows: daughters of proven sires, daughters of young sires, and daughters of bull dam candidates. A practically relevant bias was found only in the PIs for the daughters of young sires. On average their PIs were biased upwards by 0.20 standard deviations (78.8 kg for the milk yield and by 0.21 standard deviations (2.2 kg for the protein yield. The polynomial regression analysis showed that the magnitude of the bias in the PIs changed somewhat with the size of the PIs.;

  15. The CogBIAS longitudinal study protocol: cognitive and genetic factors influencing psychological functioning in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, Charlotte; Songco, Annabel; Parsons, Sam; Heathcote, Lauren; Vincent, John; Keers, Robert; Fox, Elaine

    2017-12-29

    Optimal psychological development is dependent upon a complex interplay between individual and situational factors. Investigating the development of these factors in adolescence will help to improve understanding of emotional vulnerability and resilience. The CogBIAS longitudinal study (CogBIAS-L-S) aims to combine cognitive and genetic approaches to investigate risk and protective factors associated with the development of mood and impulsivity-related outcomes in an adolescent sample. CogBIAS-L-S is a three-wave longitudinal study of typically developing adolescents conducted over 4 years, with data collection at age 12, 14 and 16. At each wave participants will undergo multiple assessments including a range of selective cognitive processing tasks (e.g. attention bias, interpretation bias, memory bias) and psychological self-report measures (e.g. anxiety, depression, resilience). Saliva samples will also be collected at the baseline assessment for genetic analyses. Multilevel statistical analyses will be performed to investigate the developmental trajectory of cognitive biases on psychological functioning, as well as the influence of genetic moderation on these relationships. CogBIAS-L-S represents the first longitudinal study to assess multiple cognitive biases across adolescent development and the largest study of its kind to collect genetic data. It therefore provides a unique opportunity to understand how genes and the environment influence the development and maintenance of cognitive biases and provide insight into risk and protective factors that may be key targets for intervention.

  16. MQSA National Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Standards Act and Program MQSA Insights MQSA National Statistics Share Tweet Linkedin Pin it More sharing options ... but should level off with time. Archived Scorecard Statistics 2018 Scorecard Statistics 2017 Scorecard Statistics 2016 Scorecard ...

  17. State Transportation Statistics 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-15

    The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) presents State Transportation Statistics 2014, a statistical profile of transportation in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. This is the 12th annual edition of State Transportation Statistics, a ...

  18. Variable-bias coin tossing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colbeck, Roger; Kent, Adrian

    2006-01-01

    Alice is a charismatic quantum cryptographer who believes her parties are unmissable; Bob is a (relatively) glamorous string theorist who believes he is an indispensable guest. To prevent possibly traumatic collisions of self-perception and reality, their social code requires that decisions about invitation or acceptance be made via a cryptographically secure variable-bias coin toss (VBCT). This generates a shared random bit by the toss of a coin whose bias is secretly chosen, within a stipulated range, by one of the parties; the other party learns only the random bit. Thus one party can secretly influence the outcome, while both can save face by blaming any negative decisions on bad luck. We describe here some cryptographic VBCT protocols whose security is guaranteed by quantum theory and the impossibility of superluminal signaling, setting our results in the context of a general discussion of secure two-party computation. We also briefly discuss other cryptographic applications of VBCT

  19. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre; C. R. Martins

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  20. Variable-bias coin tossing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colbeck, Roger; Kent, Adrian

    2006-03-01

    Alice is a charismatic quantum cryptographer who believes her parties are unmissable; Bob is a (relatively) glamorous string theorist who believes he is an indispensable guest. To prevent possibly traumatic collisions of self-perception and reality, their social code requires that decisions about invitation or acceptance be made via a cryptographically secure variable-bias coin toss (VBCT). This generates a shared random bit by the toss of a coin whose bias is secretly chosen, within a stipulated range, by one of the parties; the other party learns only the random bit. Thus one party can secretly influence the outcome, while both can save face by blaming any negative decisions on bad luck. We describe here some cryptographic VBCT protocols whose security is guaranteed by quantum theory and the impossibility of superluminal signaling, setting our results in the context of a general discussion of secure two-party computation. We also briefly discuss other cryptographic applications of VBCT.

  1. Automated statistical modeling of analytical measurement systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobson, J.J.

    1992-01-01

    The statistical modeling of analytical measurement systems at the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP) has been completely automated through computer software. The statistical modeling of analytical measurement systems is one part of a complete quality control program used by the Remote Analytical Laboratory (RAL) at the ICPP. The quality control program is an integration of automated data input, measurement system calibration, database management, and statistical process control. The quality control program and statistical modeling program meet the guidelines set forth by the American Society for Testing Materials and American National Standards Institute. A statistical model is a set of mathematical equations describing any systematic bias inherent in a measurement system and the precision of a measurement system. A statistical model is developed from data generated from the analysis of control standards. Control standards are samples which are made up at precise known levels by an independent laboratory and submitted to the RAL. The RAL analysts who process control standards do not know the values of those control standards. The object behind statistical modeling is to describe real process samples in terms of their bias and precision and, to verify that a measurement system is operating satisfactorily. The processing of control standards gives us this ability

  2. Girl child and gender bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhry, D P

    1995-01-01

    This article identifies gender bias against female children and youth in India. Gender bias is based on centuries-old religious beliefs and sayings from ancient times. Discrimination is reflected in denial or ignorance of female children's educational, health, nutrition, and recreational needs. Female infanticide and selective abortion of female fetuses are other forms of discrimination. The task of eliminating or reducing gender bias will involve legal, developmental, political, and administrative measures. Public awareness needs to be created. There is a need to reorient the education and health systems and to advocate for gender equality. The government of India set the following goals for the 1990s: to protect the survival of the girl child and practice safe motherhood; to develop the girl child in general; and to protect vulnerable girl children in different circumstances and in special groups. The Health Authorities should monitor the laws carefully to assure marriage after the minimum age, ban sex determination of the fetus, and monitor the health and nutrition of pre-school girls and nursing and pregnant mothers. Mothers need to be encouraged to breast feed, and to breast feed equally between genders. Every village and slum area needs a mini health center. Maternal mortality must decline. Primary health centers and hospitals need more women's wards. Education must be universally accessible. Enrollments should be increased by educating rural tribal and slum parents, reducing distances between home and school, making curriculum more relevant to girls, creating more female teachers, and providing facilities and incentives for meeting the needs of girl students. Supplementary income could be provided to families for sending girls to school. Recreational activities must be free of gender bias. Dowry, sati, and devdasi systems should be banned.

  3. Competition and Commercial Media Bias

    OpenAIRE

    Blasco, Andrea; Sobbrio, Francesco

    2011-01-01

    This paper reviews the empirical evidence on commercial media bias (i.e., advertisers influence over media accuracy) and then introduces a simple model to summarize the main elements of the theoretical literature. The analysis provides three main policy insights for media regulators: i) Media regulators should target their monitoring efforts towards news contents upon which advertisers are likely to share similar preferences; ii) In advertising industries characterized by high correlation in ...

  4. BEHAVIORAL BIASES IN TRADING SECURITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Turcan Ciprian Sebastian

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The main thesis of this paper represents the importance and the effects that human behavior has over capital markets. It is important to see the link between the asset valuation and investor sentiment that motivate to pay for an asset a certain prices over/below the intrinsic value. The main behavioral aspects discussed are emotional factors such as: fear of regret, overconfidence, perseverance, loss aversion ,heuristic biases, misinformation and thinking errors, herding and their consequences.

  5. Significant biases affecting abundance determinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesson, Roger

    2015-08-01

    I have developed two highly efficient codes to automate analyses of emission line nebulae. The tools place particular emphasis on the propagation of uncertainties. The first tool, ALFA, uses a genetic algorithm to rapidly optimise the parameters of gaussian fits to line profiles. It can fit emission line spectra of arbitrary resolution, wavelength range and depth, with no user input at all. It is well suited to highly multiplexed spectroscopy such as that now being carried out with instruments such as MUSE at the VLT. The second tool, NEAT, carries out a full analysis of emission line fluxes, robustly propagating uncertainties using a Monte Carlo technique.Using these tools, I have found that considerable biases can be introduced into abundance determinations if the uncertainty distribution of emission lines is not well characterised. For weak lines, normally distributed uncertainties are generally assumed, though it is incorrect to do so, and significant biases can result. I discuss observational evidence of these biases. The two new codes contain routines to correctly characterise the probability distributions, giving more reliable results in analyses of emission line nebulae.

  6. Galaxy formation and physical bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cen, Renyue; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

    1992-01-01

    We have supplemented our code, which computes the evolution of the physical state of a representative piece of the universe to include, not only the dynamics of dark matter (with a standard PM code), and the hydrodynamics of the gaseous component (including detailed collisional and radiative processes), but also galaxy formation on a heuristic but plausible basis. If, within a cell the gas is Jeans' unstable, collapsing, and cooling rapidly, it is transformed to galaxy subunits, which are then followed with a collisionless code. After grouping them into galaxies, we estimate the relative distributions of galaxies and dark matter and the relative velocities of galaxies and dark matter. In a large scale CDM run of 80/h Mpc size with 8 x 10 exp 6 cells and dark matter particles, we find that physical bias b is on the 8/h Mpc scale is about 1.6 and increases towards smaller scales, and that velocity bias is about 0.8 on the same scale. The comparable HDM simulation is highly biased with b = 2.7 on the 8/h Mpc scale. Implications of these results are discussed in the light of the COBE observations which provide an accurate normalization for the initial power spectrum. CDM can be ruled out on the basis of too large a predicted small scale velocity dispersion at greater than 95 percent confidence level.

  7. Opinion dynamics with confirmation bias.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armen E Allahverdyan

    Full Text Available Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical research of this phenomenon has mainly focused on its economic implications possibly missing its potential connections with broader notions of cognitive science.We formulate a (non-Bayesian model for revising subjective probabilistic opinion of a confirmationally-biased agent in the light of a persuasive opinion. The revision rule ensures that the agent does not react to persuasion that is either far from his current opinion or coincides with it. We demonstrate that the model accounts for the basic phenomenology of the social judgment theory, and allows to study various phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and boomerang effect. The model also displays the order of presentation effect-when consecutively exposed to two opinions, the preference is given to the last opinion (recency or the first opinion (primacy -and relates recency to confirmation bias. Finally, we study the model in the case of repeated persuasion and analyze its convergence properties.The standard Bayesian approach to probabilistic opinion revision is inadequate for describing the observed phenomenology of persuasion process. The simple non-Bayesian model proposed here does agree with this phenomenology and is capable of reproducing a spectrum of effects observed in psychology: primacy-recency phenomenon, boomerang effect and cognitive dissonance. We point out several limitations of the model that should motivate its future development.

  8. Renyi statistics in equilibrium statistical mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parvan, A.S.; Biro, T.S.

    2010-01-01

    The Renyi statistics in the canonical and microcanonical ensembles is examined both in general and in particular for the ideal gas. In the microcanonical ensemble the Renyi statistics is equivalent to the Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics. By the exact analytical results for the ideal gas, it is shown that in the canonical ensemble, taking the thermodynamic limit, the Renyi statistics is also equivalent to the Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics. Furthermore it satisfies the requirements of the equilibrium thermodynamics, i.e. the thermodynamical potential of the statistical ensemble is a homogeneous function of first degree of its extensive variables of state. We conclude that the Renyi statistics arrives at the same thermodynamical relations, as those stemming from the Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics in this limit.

  9. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 5. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical Inference. Mohan Delampady V R Padmawar. General Article Volume 1 Issue 5 May 1996 pp 49-58 ...

  10. Matrilateral Bias in Human Grandmothering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Daly

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Children receive more care and resources from their maternal grandmothers than from their paternal grandmothers. This asymmetry is the “matrilateral bias” in grandmaternal investment. Here, we synopsize the evolutionary theories that predict such a bias, and review evidence of its cross-cultural generality and magnitude. Evolutionists have long maintained that investing in a daughter’s child yields greater fitness returns, on average, than investing in a son’s child because of paternity uncertainty: the son’s putative progeny may have been sired by someone else. Recent theoretical work has identified an additional natural selective basis for the matrilateral bias that may be no less important: supporting grandchildren lightens the load on their mother, increasing her capacity to pursue her fitness in other ways, and if she invests those gains either in her natal relatives or in children of a former or future partner, fitness returns accrue to the maternal, but not the paternal, grandmother. In modern democracies, where kinship is reckoned bilaterally and no postmarital residence norms restrict grandmaternal access to grandchildren, many studies have found large matrilateral biases in contact, childcare, and emotional closeness. In other societies, patrilineal ideology and postmarital residence with the husband’s kin (virilocality might be expected to have produced a patrilateral bias instead, but the available evidence refutes this hypothesis. In hunter-gatherers, regardless of professed norms concerning kinship and residence, mothers get needed help at and after childbirth from their mothers, not their mothers-in-law. In traditional agricultural and pastoral societies, patrilineal and virilocal norms are common, but young mothers still turn to their natal families for crucial help, and several studies have documented benefits, including reduced child mortality, associated with access to maternal, but not paternal, grandmothers. Even

  11. Market Efficiency and Behavioral Biases in the WNBA Betting Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodney J. Paul

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The betting market for the Women’s National Basketball Association (WNBA is a thin financial market, which does not attract much interest from sports bettors. Given these characteristics, it is possible that profitable wagering strategies could exist for informed bettors of the WNBA. Using betting data on the WNBA from 2007–2012, we find that simple betting strategies do not earn statistically significant returns. WNBA bettors are like NBA bettors; however, in that they strongly prefer the best teams, particularly when they are on the road. Despite this clear bias, betting against the most popular public wagers is not found to earn statistically significant profits.

  12. Bias-correction in vector autoregressive models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    2014-01-01

    We analyze the properties of various methods for bias-correcting parameter estimates in both stationary and non-stationary vector autoregressive models. First, we show that two analytical bias formulas from the existing literature are in fact identical. Next, based on a detailed simulation study......, we show that when the model is stationary this simple bias formula compares very favorably to bootstrap bias-correction, both in terms of bias and mean squared error. In non-stationary models, the analytical bias formula performs noticeably worse than bootstrapping. Both methods yield a notable...... improvement over ordinary least squares. We pay special attention to the risk of pushing an otherwise stationary model into the non-stationary region of the parameter space when correcting for bias. Finally, we consider a recently proposed reduced-bias weighted least squares estimator, and we find...

  13. Short Communication: Gender Bias and Stigmatization against ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Short Communication: Gender Bias and Stigmatization against Women Living with ... In Ethiopia, HIV/AIDS is highly stigmatized due to the fact that sexual ... bias, socio-economic situations and traditional beliefs contribute, individually and in ...

  14. Apparatus bias and place conditioning with ethanol in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Christopher L; Ferree, Nikole K; Howard, MacKenzie A

    2003-12-01

    ethanol was paired with the initially non-preferred cue, and not when it was paired with the initially preferred cue. These conclusions held regardless of which dependent variable was used to index place conditioning, but only if the counterbalancing factor was included in statistical analyses. These studies indicate that apparatus bias plays a major role in determining whether biased assignment of an ethanol-paired stimulus affects ability to demonstrate conditioned place preference. Ethanol's ability to produce conditioned place preference in an unbiased apparatus, regardless of the direction of the initial cue bias, supports previous studies that interpret such findings as evidence of a primary rewarding drug effect. Moreover, these studies suggest that the asymmetrical outcome observed in the biased apparatus is most likely due to a measurement problem (e.g., ceiling effect) rather than to an interaction between the drug's effect and an unconditioned motivational response (e.g., "anxiety") to the initially non-preferred stimulus. More generally, these findings illustrate the importance of providing clear information on apparatus bias in all place-conditioning studies.

  15. Is there bias in editorial choice? Yes

    OpenAIRE

    Moustafa, Khaled

    2018-01-01

    Nature has recently published a Correspondence claiming the absence of fame biases in the editorial choice. The topic is interesting and deserves a deeper analysis than it was presented because the reported brief analysis and its conclusion are somewhat biased for many reasons, some of them are discussed here. Since the editorial assessment is a form of peer-review, the biases reported on external peer-reviews would, thus, apply to the editorial assessment, too. The biases would be proportion...

  16. Bias-field equalizer for bubble memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keefe, G. E.

    1977-01-01

    Magnetoresistive Perm-alloy sensor monitors bias field required to maintain bubble memory. Sensor provides error signal that, in turn, corrects magnitude of bias field. Error signal from sensor can be used to control magnitude of bias field in either auxiliary set of bias-field coils around permanent magnet field, or current in small coils used to remagnetize permanent magnet by infrequent, short, high-current pulse or short sequence of pulses.

  17. Selection bias and the perils of benchmarking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denrell, Jerker

    2005-04-01

    To find the secrets of business success, what could be more natural than studying successful businesses? In fact, nothing could be more dangerous, warns this Stanford professor. Generalizing from the examples of successful companies is like generalizing about New England weather from data taken only in the summer. That's essentially what businesspeople do when they learn from good examples and what consultants, authors, and researchers do when they study only existing companies or--worse yet--only high-performing companies. They reach conclusions from unrepresentative data samples, falling into the classic statistical trap of selection bias. Drawing on a wealth of case studies, for instance, one researcher concluded that great leaders share two key traits: They persist, often despite initial failures, and they are able to persuade others to join them. But those traits are also the hallmarks of spectacularly unsuccessful entrepreneurs, who must persist in the face of failure to incur large losses and must be able to persuade others to pour their money down the drain. To discover what makes a business successful, then, managers should look at both successes and failures. Otherwise, they will overvalue risky business practices, seeing only those companies that won big and not the ones that lost dismally. They will not be able to tell if their current good fortune stems from smart business practices or if they are actually coasting on past accomplishments or good luck. Fortunately, economists have developed relatively simple tools that can correct for selection bias even when data about failed companies are hard to come by. Success may be inspirational, but managers are more likely to find the secrets of high performance if they give the stories of their competitors'failures as full a hearing as they do the stories of dazzling successes.

  18. The Accuracy Enhancing Effect of Biasing Cues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W. Vanhouche (Wouter); S.M.J. van Osselaer (Stijn)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractExtrinsic cues such as price and irrelevant attributes have been shown to bias consumers’ product judgments. Results in this article replicate those findings in pretrial judgments but show that such biasing cues can improve quality judgments at a later point in time. Initially biasing

  19. Biased managers, organizational design, and incentive provision

    OpenAIRE

    Moreira, Humberto Ataíde; Costa, Cristiano Machado; Ferreira, Daniel Bernardo Soares

    2004-01-01

    Rio de Janeiro We model the tradeoff between the balance and the strength of incentives implicit in the choice between hierarchical and matrix organizational structures. We show that managerial biases determine which structure is optimal: hierarchical forms are preferred when biases are low, while matrix structures are preferred when biases are high.

  20. Attentional bias mediates the effect of neurostimulation on emotional vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Nigel T M; Basanovic, Julian; Notebaert, Lies; MacLeod, Colin; Clarke, Patrick J F

    2017-10-01

    Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a neuromodulatory technique which has garnered recent interest in the potential treatment for emotion-based psychopathology. While accumulating evidence suggests that tDCS may attenuate emotional vulnerability, critically, little is known about underlying mechanisms of this effect. The present study sought to clarify this by examining the possibility that tDCS may affect emotional vulnerability via its capacity to modulate attentional bias towards threatening information. Fifty healthy participants were randomly assigned to receive either anodal tDCS (2 mA/min) stimulation to the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), or sham. Participants were then eye tracked during a dual-video stressor task designed to elicit emotional reactivity, while providing a concurrent in-vivo measure of attentional bias. Greater attentional bias towards threatening information was associated with greater emotional reactivity to the stressor task. Furthermore, the active tDCS group showed reduced attentional bias to threat, compared to the sham group. Importantly, attentional bias was found to statistically mediate the effect of tDCS on emotional reactivity, while no direct effect of tDCS on emotional reactivity was observed. The findings are consistent with the notion that the effect of tDCS on emotional vulnerability may be mediated by changes in attentional bias, holding implications for the application of tDCS in emotion-based psychopathology. The findings also highlight the utility of in-vivo eye tracking measures in the examination of the mechanisms associated with DLPFC neuromodulation in emotional vulnerability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. QUANTIFYING THE BIASES OF SPECTROSCOPICALLY SELECTED GRAVITATIONAL LENSES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arneson, Ryan A.; Brownstein, Joel R.; Bolton, Adam S.

    2012-01-01

    Spectroscopic selection has been the most productive technique for the selection of galaxy-scale strong gravitational lens systems with known redshifts. Statistically significant samples of strong lenses provide a powerful method for measuring the mass-density parameters of the lensing population, but results can only be generalized to the parent population if the lensing selection biases are sufficiently understood. We perform controlled Monte Carlo simulations of spectroscopic lens surveys in order to quantify the bias of lenses relative to parent galaxies in velocity dispersion, mass axis ratio, and mass-density profile. For parameters typical of the SLACS and BELLS surveys, we find (1) no significant mass axis ratio detection bias of lenses relative to parent galaxies; (2) a very small detection bias toward shallow mass-density profiles, which is likely negligible compared to other sources of uncertainty in this parameter; (3) a detection bias toward smaller Einstein radius for systems drawn from parent populations with group- and cluster-scale lensing masses; and (4) a lens-modeling bias toward larger velocity dispersions for systems drawn from parent samples with sub-arcsecond mean Einstein radii. This last finding indicates that the incorporation of velocity-dispersion upper limits of non-lenses is an important ingredient for unbiased analyses of spectroscopically selected lens samples. In general, we find that the completeness of spectroscopic lens surveys in the plane of Einstein radius and mass-density profile power-law index is quite uniform, up to a sharp drop in the region of large Einstein radius and steep mass-density profile, and hence that such surveys are ideally suited to the study of massive field galaxies.

  2. Correcting estimators of theta and Tajima's D for ascertainment biases caused by the single-nucleotide polymorphism discovery process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramírez-Soriano, Anna; Nielsen, Rasmus

    2009-01-01

    Most single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data suffer from an ascertainment bias caused by the process of SNP discovery followed by SNP genotyping. The final genotyped data are biased toward an excess of common alleles compared to directly sequenced data, making standard genetic methods of analysis...... the variances and covariances of these estimators and provide a corrected version of Tajima's D statistic. We reanalyze a human genomewide SNP data set and find substantial differences in the results with or without ascertainment bias correction....

  3. An inclusive taxonomy of behavioral biases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Peón

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper overviews the theoretical and empirical research on behavioral biases and their influence in the literature. To provide a systematic exposition, we present a unified framework that takes the reader through an original taxonomy, based on the reviews of relevant authors in the field. In particular, we establish three broad categories that may be distinguished: heuristics and biases; choices, values and frames; and social factors. We then describe the main biases within each category, and revise the main theoretical and empirical developments, linking each bias with other biases and anomalies that are related to them, according to the literature.

  4. Quantifying selective reporting and the Proteus phenomenon for multiple datasets with similar bias.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Pfeiffer

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Meta-analyses play an important role in synthesizing evidence from diverse studies and datasets that address similar questions. A major obstacle for meta-analyses arises from biases in reporting. In particular, it is speculated that findings which do not achieve formal statistical significance are less likely reported than statistically significant findings. Moreover, the patterns of bias can be complex and may also depend on the timing of the research results and their relationship with previously published work. In this paper, we present an approach that is specifically designed to analyze large-scale datasets on published results. Such datasets are currently emerging in diverse research fields, particularly in molecular medicine. We use our approach to investigate a dataset on Alzheimer's disease (AD that covers 1167 results from case-control studies on 102 genetic markers. We observe that initial studies on a genetic marker tend to be substantially more biased than subsequent replications. The chances for initial, statistically non-significant results to be published are estimated to be about 44% (95% CI, 32% to 63% relative to statistically significant results, while statistically non-significant replications have almost the same chance to be published as statistically significant replications (84%; 95% CI, 66% to 107%. Early replications tend to be biased against initial findings, an observation previously termed Proteus phenomenon: The chances for non-significant studies going in the same direction as the initial result are estimated to be lower than the chances for non-significant studies opposing the initial result (73%; 95% CI, 55% to 96%. Such dynamic patterns in bias are difficult to capture by conventional methods, where typically simple publication bias is assumed to operate. Our approach captures and corrects for complex dynamic patterns of bias, and thereby helps generating conclusions from published results that are more robust

  5. The foundations of statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Savage, Leonard J

    1972-01-01

    Classic analysis of the foundations of statistics and development of personal probability, one of the greatest controversies in modern statistical thought. Revised edition. Calculus, probability, statistics, and Boolean algebra are recommended.

  6. State Transportation Statistics 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-14

    The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), a part of DOTs Research and Innovative Technology Administration (RITA), presents State Transportation Statistics 2010, a statistical profile of transportation in the 50 states and the District of Col...

  7. State Transportation Statistics 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-15

    The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), a part of the U.S. Department of Transportation's (USDOT) Research and Innovative Technology Administration (RITA), presents State Transportation Statistics 2012, a statistical profile of transportation ...

  8. Adrenal Gland Tumors: Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Gland Tumor: Statistics Request Permissions Adrenal Gland Tumor: Statistics Approved by the Cancer.Net Editorial Board , 03/ ... primary adrenal gland tumor is very uncommon. Exact statistics are not available for this type of tumor ...

  9. State transportation statistics 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), a part of DOTs Research and : Innovative Technology Administration (RITA), presents State Transportation : Statistics 2009, a statistical profile of transportation in the 50 states and the : District ...

  10. State Transportation Statistics 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-08

    The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), a part of DOTs Research and Innovative Technology Administration (RITA), presents State Transportation Statistics 2011, a statistical profile of transportation in the 50 states and the District of Col...

  11. Neuroendocrine Tumor: Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Tumor > Neuroendocrine Tumor: Statistics Request Permissions Neuroendocrine Tumor: Statistics Approved by the Cancer.Net Editorial Board , 01/ ... the body. It is important to remember that statistics on the survival rates for people with a ...

  12. State Transportation Statistics 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-19

    The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), a part of the U.S. Department of Transportations (USDOT) Research and Innovative Technology Administration (RITA), presents State Transportation Statistics 2013, a statistical profile of transportatio...

  13. BTS statistical standards manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-10-01

    The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), like other federal statistical agencies, establishes professional standards to guide the methods and procedures for the collection, processing, storage, and presentation of statistical data. Standards an...

  14. Gender Bias Affects Forests Worldwide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marlène Elias

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Gender biases persist in forestry research and practice. These biases result in reduced scientific rigor and inequitable, ineffective, and less efficient policies, programs, and interventions. Drawing from a two-volume collection of current and classic analyses on gender in forests, we outline five persistent and inter-related themes: gendered governance, tree tenure, forest spaces, division of labor, and ecological knowledge. Each emerges across geographic regions in the northern and southern hemisphere and reflects inequities in women’s and men’s ability to make decisions about and benefit from trees, forests, and their products. Women’s ability to participate in community-based forest governance is typically less than men’s, causing concern for social equity and forest stewardship. Women’s access to trees and their products is commonly more limited than men’s, and mediated by their relationship with their male counterparts. Spatial patterns of forest use reflect gender norms and taboos, and men’s greater access to transportation. The division of labor results in gender specialization in the collection of forest products, with variations in gender roles across regions. All these gender differences result in ecological knowledge that is distinct but also complementary and shifting across the genders. The ways gender plays out in relation to each theme may vary across cultures and contexts, but the influence of gender, which intersects with other factors of social differentiation in shaping forest landscapes, is global.

  15. Workplace ageism: discovering hidden bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malinen, Sanna; Johnston, Lucy

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND/STUDY CONTEXT: Research largely shows no performance differences between older and younger employees, or that older workers even outperform younger employees, yet negative attitudes towards older workers can underpin discrimination. Unfortunately, traditional "explicit" techniques for assessing attitudes (i.e., self-report measures) have serious drawbacks. Therefore, using an approach that is novel to organizational contexts, the authors supplemented explicit with implicit (indirect) measures of attitudes towards older workers, and examined the malleability of both. This research consists of two studies. The authors measured self-report (explicit) attitudes towards older and younger workers with a survey, and implicit attitudes with a reaction-time-based measure of implicit associations. In addition, to test whether attitudes were malleable, the authors measured attitudes before and after a mental imagery intervention, where the authors asked participants in the experimental group to imagine respected and valued older workers from their surroundings. Negative, stable implicit attitudes towards older workers emerged in two studies. Conversely, explicit attitudes showed no age bias and were more susceptible to change intervention, such that attitudes became more positive towards older workers following the experimental manipulation. This research demonstrates the unconscious nature of bias against older workers, and highlights the utility of implicit attitude measures in the context of the workplace. In the current era of aging workforce and skill shortages, implicit measures may be necessary to illuminate hidden workplace ageism.

  16. Statistical Discrimination in a Competitive Labor Market

    OpenAIRE

    Jonathan B. Berk

    1999-01-01

    This paper studies the effect of employee job selection in a model of statistical discrimination in a competitive labor market. In an economy in which there are quality differences between groups, a surprisingly strong condition is required to guarantee discrimination against the worse qualified group --- MLRP must hold. In addition, because of the self-selection bias induced by competition, the resulting discrimination is small when compared to the magnitude of the underlying quality differe...

  17. Potential Reporting Bias in Neuroimaging Studies of Sex Differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Sean P; Naudet, Florian; Laude, Jennifer; Radua, Joaquim; Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Chu, Isabella; Stefanick, Marcia L; Ioannidis, John P A

    2018-04-17

    Numerous functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have reported sex differences. To empirically evaluate for evidence of excessive significance bias in this literature, we searched for published fMRI studies of human brain to evaluate sex differences, regardless of the topic investigated, in Medline and Scopus over 10 years. We analyzed the prevalence of conclusions in favor of sex differences and the correlation between study sample sizes and number of significant foci identified. In the absence of bias, larger studies (better powered) should identify a larger number of significant foci. Across 179 papers, median sample size was n = 32 (interquartile range 23-47.5). A median of 5 foci related to sex differences were reported (interquartile range, 2-9.5). Few articles (n = 2) had titles focused on no differences or on similarities (n = 3) between sexes. Overall, 158 papers (88%) reached "positive" conclusions in their abstract and presented some foci related to sex differences. There was no statistically significant relationship between sample size and the number of foci (-0.048% increase for every 10 participants, p = 0.63). The extremely high prevalence of "positive" results and the lack of the expected relationship between sample size and the number of discovered foci reflect probable reporting bias and excess significance bias in this literature.

  18. HMO marketing and selection bias: are TEFRA HMOs skimming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtenstein, R; Thomas, J W; Watkins, B; Puto, C; Lepkowski, J; Adams-Watson, J; Simone, B; Vest, D

    1992-04-01

    The research evidence indicates that health maintenance organizations (HMOs) participating in the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 (TEFRA) At-Risk Program tend to experience favorable selection. Although favorable selection might result from patient decisions, a common conjecture is that it can be induced by HMOs through their marketing activities. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between HMO marketing strategies and selection bias in TEFRA At-Risk HMOs. A purposive sample of 22 HMOs that were actively marketing their TEFRA programs was selected and data on organizational characteristics, market area characteristics, and HMO marketing decisions were collected. To measure selection bias in these HMOs, the functional health status of approximately 300 enrollees in each HMO was compared to that of 300 non-enrolling beneficiaries in the same area. Three dependent variables, reflecting selection bias at the mean, the low health tail, and the high health tail of the health status distribution were created. Weighted least squares regressions were then used to identify relationships between marketing elements and selection bias. Subject to the statistical limitations of the study, our conclusion is that it is doubtful that HMO marketing decisions are responsible for the prevalence of favorable selection in HMO enrollment. It also appears unlikely that HMOs were differentially targeting healthy and unhealthy segments of the Medicare market.

  19. Analysis of the theoretical bias in dark matter direct detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catena, Riccardo

    2014-01-01

    Fitting the model ''A'' to dark matter direct detection data, when the model that underlies the data is ''B'', introduces a theoretical bias in the fit. We perform a quantitative study of the theoretical bias in dark matter direct detection, with a focus on assumptions regarding the dark matter interactions, and velocity distribution. We address this problem within the effective theory of isoscalar dark matter-nucleon interactions mediated by a heavy spin-1 or spin-0 particle. We analyze 24 benchmark points in the parameter space of the theory, using frequentist and Bayesian statistical methods. First, we simulate the data of future direct detection experiments assuming a momentum/velocity dependent dark matter-nucleon interaction, and an anisotropic dark matter velocity distribution. Then, we fit a constant scattering cross section, and an isotropic Maxwell-Boltzmann velocity distribution to the simulated data, thereby introducing a bias in the analysis. The best fit values of the dark matter particle mass differ from their benchmark values up to 2 standard deviations. The best fit values of the dark matter-nucleon coupling constant differ from their benchmark values up to several standard deviations. We conclude that common assumptions in dark matter direct detection are a source of potentially significant bias

  20. Operator Bias in the Estimation of Arc Efficiency in Gas Tungsten Arc Welding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fredrik Sikström

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the operator bias in the measurement process of arc efficiency in stationary direct current electrode negative gas tungsten arc welding is discussed. An experimental study involving 15 operators (enough to reach statistical significance has been carried out with the purpose to estimate the arc efficiency from a specific procedure for calorimetric experiments. The measurement procedure consists of three manual operations which introduces operator bias in the measurement process. An additional relevant experiment highlights the consequences of estimating the arc voltage by measuring the potential between the terminals of the welding power source instead of measuring the potential between the electrode contact tube and the workpiece. The result of the study is a statistical evaluation of the operator bias influence on the estimate, showing that operator bias is negligible in the estimate considered here. On the contrary the consequences of neglecting welding leads voltage drop results in a significant under estimation of the arc efficiency.

  1. Quality assurance and statistical control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, K.

    1991-01-01

    In scientific research laboratories it is rarely possible to use quality assurance schemes, developed for large-scale analysis. Instead methods have been developed to control the quality of modest numbers of analytical results by relying on statistical control: Analysis of precision serves...... to detect analytical errors by comparing the a priori precision of the analytical results with the actual variability observed among replicates or duplicates. The method relies on the chi-square distribution to detect excess variability and is quite sensitive even for 5-10 results. Interference control...... serves to detect analytical bias by comparing results obtained by two different analytical methods, each relying on a different detection principle and therefore exhibiting different influence from matrix elements; only 5-10 sets of results are required to establish whether a regression line passes...

  2. Ensemble stacking mitigates biases in inference of synaptic connectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Brendan; Levy, Maayan; Dechery, Joseph B; MacLean, Jason N

    2018-01-01

    A promising alternative to directly measuring the anatomical connections in a neuronal population is inferring the connections from the activity. We employ simulated spiking neuronal networks to compare and contrast commonly used inference methods that identify likely excitatory synaptic connections using statistical regularities in spike timing. We find that simple adjustments to standard algorithms improve inference accuracy: A signing procedure improves the power of unsigned mutual-information-based approaches and a correction that accounts for differences in mean and variance of background timing relationships, such as those expected to be induced by heterogeneous firing rates, increases the sensitivity of frequency-based methods. We also find that different inference methods reveal distinct subsets of the synaptic network and each method exhibits different biases in the accurate detection of reciprocity and local clustering. To correct for errors and biases specific to single inference algorithms, we combine methods into an ensemble. Ensemble predictions, generated as a linear combination of multiple inference algorithms, are more sensitive than the best individual measures alone, and are more faithful to ground-truth statistics of connectivity, mitigating biases specific to single inference methods. These weightings generalize across simulated datasets, emphasizing the potential for the broad utility of ensemble-based approaches.

  3. Domain-size-dependent exchange bias in Co/LaFeO3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scholl, A.; Nolting, F.; Seo, J.W.; Ohldag, H.; Stohr, J.; Raoux,S.; Locquet, J.-P.; Fompeyrine, J.

    2004-09-22

    X-ray microscopy using magnetic linear dichroism of a zero-field-grown, multi-domain Co/LaFeO{sub 3} ferromagnet/antiferromagnet sample shows a local exchange bias of random direction and magnitude. A statistical analysis of the local bias of individual, micron-size magnetic domains demonstrates an increasing bias field with decreasing domain size as expected for a random distribution of pinned, uncompensated spins, which are believed to mediate the interface coupling. A linear dependence with the inverse domain diameter is found.

  4. Social reward shapes attentional biases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Brian A

    2016-01-01

    Paying attention to stimuli that predict a reward outcome is important for an organism to survive and thrive. When visual stimuli are associated with tangible, extrinsic rewards such as money or food, these stimuli acquire high attentional priority and come to automatically capture attention. In humans and other primates, however, many behaviors are not motivated directly by such extrinsic rewards, but rather by the social feedback that results from performing those behaviors. In the present study, I examine whether positive social feedback can similarly influence attentional bias. The results show that stimuli previously associated with a high probability of positive social feedback elicit value-driven attentional capture, much like stimuli associated with extrinsic rewards. Unlike with extrinsic rewards, however, such stimuli also influence task-specific motivation. My findings offer a potential mechanism by which social reward shapes the information that we prioritize when perceiving the world around us.

  5. Ratio Bias and Policy Preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Tue

    2017-01-01

    Numbers permeate modern political communication. While current scholarship on framing effects has focused on the persuasive effects of words and arguments, this article shows that framing of numbers can also substantially affect policy preferences. Such effects are caused by ratio bias, which...... is a general tendency to focus on numerators and pay insufficient attention to denominators in ratios. Using a population-based survey experiment, I demonstrate how differently framed but logically equivalent representations of the exact same numerical value can have large effects on citizens’ preferences...... regarding salient political issues such as education and taxes. Furthermore, the effects of numerical framing are found across most groups of the population, largely regardless of their political predisposition and their general ability to understand and use numerical information. These findings have...

  6. A Quantile Mapping Bias Correction Method Based on Hydroclimatic Classification of the Guiana Shield.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringard, Justine; Seyler, Frederique; Linguet, Laurent

    2017-06-16

    Satellite precipitation products (SPPs) provide alternative precipitation data for regions with sparse rain gauge measurements. However, SPPs are subject to different types of error that need correction. Most SPP bias correction methods use the statistical properties of the rain gauge data to adjust the corresponding SPP data. The statistical adjustment does not make it possible to correct the pixels of SPP data for which there is no rain gauge data. The solution proposed in this article is to correct the daily SPP data for the Guiana Shield using a novel two set approach, without taking into account the daily gauge data of the pixel to be corrected, but the daily gauge data from surrounding pixels. In this case, a spatial analysis must be involved. The first step defines hydroclimatic areas using a spatial classification that considers precipitation data with the same temporal distributions. The second step uses the Quantile Mapping bias correction method to correct the daily SPP data contained within each hydroclimatic area. We validate the results by comparing the corrected SPP data and daily rain gauge measurements using relative RMSE and relative bias statistical errors. The results show that analysis scale variation reduces rBIAS and rRMSE significantly. The spatial classification avoids mixing rainfall data with different temporal characteristics in each hydroclimatic area, and the defined bias correction parameters are more realistic and appropriate. This study demonstrates that hydroclimatic classification is relevant for implementing bias correction methods at the local scale.

  7. Statistics in Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Information Statistics in Schools Educate your students about the value and everyday use of statistics. The Statistics in Schools program provides resources for teaching and learning with real life data. Explore the site for standards-aligned, classroom-ready activities. Statistics in Schools Math Activities History

  8. Transport Statistics - Transport - UNECE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sustainable Energy Statistics Trade Transport Themes UNECE and the SDGs Climate Change Gender Ideas 4 Change UNECE Weekly Videos UNECE Transport Areas of Work Transport Statistics Transport Transport Statistics About us Terms of Reference Meetings and Events Meetings Working Party on Transport Statistics (WP.6

  9. Good practices for quantitative bias analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lash, Timothy L; Fox, Matthew P; MacLehose, Richard F; Maldonado, George; McCandless, Lawrence C; Greenland, Sander

    2014-12-01

    Quantitative bias analysis serves several objectives in epidemiological research. First, it provides a quantitative estimate of the direction, magnitude and uncertainty arising from systematic errors. Second, the acts of identifying sources of systematic error, writing down models to quantify them, assigning values to the bias parameters and interpreting the results combat the human tendency towards overconfidence in research results, syntheses and critiques and the inferences that rest upon them. Finally, by suggesting aspects that dominate uncertainty in a particular research result or topic area, bias analysis can guide efficient allocation of sparse research resources. The fundamental methods of bias analyses have been known for decades, and there have been calls for more widespread use for nearly as long. There was a time when some believed that bias analyses were rarely undertaken because the methods were not widely known and because automated computing tools were not readily available to implement the methods. These shortcomings have been largely resolved. We must, therefore, contemplate other barriers to implementation. One possibility is that practitioners avoid the analyses because they lack confidence in the practice of bias analysis. The purpose of this paper is therefore to describe what we view as good practices for applying quantitative bias analysis to epidemiological data, directed towards those familiar with the methods. We focus on answering questions often posed to those of us who advocate incorporation of bias analysis methods into teaching and research. These include the following. When is bias analysis practical and productive? How does one select the biases that ought to be addressed? How does one select a method to model biases? How does one assign values to the parameters of a bias model? How does one present and interpret a bias analysis?. We hope that our guide to good practices for conducting and presenting bias analyses will encourage

  10. The Bias in Bayes and How to Measure it

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.A. S. Fraser

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available A Bayes prior with a likelihood can give approximate confidence and provide a remarkably flexible approach to statistical inference; but is also known to provide inaccurate perhaps incorrect results. We develop a measure of Bayes bias, first examining a simple Normal model and then progressing to quite general models with scalar and vector parameters. The Bias measure can be interpreted as the lateral displacement of the location standardized likelihood function and thus provides ready access to the effect of a prior on p-values, confidence bounds, and Bayes posterior bounds. The needed computation is comparable to that for the likelihood function and thus provides an initial option for checking merits of Bayesian computation for high dimensions.

  11. Cognitive advantage in bilingualism: an example of publication bias?

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bruin, Angela; Treccani, Barbara; Della Sala, Sergio

    2015-01-01

    It is a widely held belief that bilinguals have an advantage over monolinguals in executive-control tasks, but is this what all studies actually demonstrate? The idea of a bilingual advantage may result from a publication bias favoring studies with positive results over studies with null or negative effects. To test this hypothesis, we looked at conference abstracts from 1999 to 2012 on the topic of bilingualism and executive control. We then determined which of the studies they reported were subsequently published. Studies with results fully supporting the bilingual-advantage theory were most likely to be published, followed by studies with mixed results. Studies challenging the bilingual advantage were published the least. This discrepancy was not due to differences in sample size, tests used, or statistical power. A test for funnel-plot asymmetry provided further evidence for the existence of a publication bias. © The Author(s) 2014.

  12. Generalized quantum statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chou, C.

    1992-01-01

    In the paper, a non-anyonic generalization of quantum statistics is presented, in which Fermi-Dirac statistics (FDS) and Bose-Einstein statistics (BES) appear as two special cases. The new quantum statistics, which is characterized by the dimension of its single particle Fock space, contains three consistent parts, namely the generalized bilinear quantization, the generalized quantum mechanical description and the corresponding statistical mechanics

  13. Probing Biased Signaling in Chemokine Receptors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amarandi, Roxana Maria; Hjortø, Gertrud Malene; Rosenkilde, Mette Marie

    2016-01-01

    The chemokine system mediates leukocyte migration during homeostatic and inflammatory processes. Traditionally, it is described as redundant and promiscuous, with a single chemokine ligand binding to different receptors and a single receptor having several ligands. Signaling of chemokine receptors...... of others has been termed signaling bias and can accordingly be grouped into ligand bias, receptor bias, and tissue bias. Bias has so far been broadly overlooked in the process of drug development. The low number of currently approved drugs targeting the chemokine system, as well as the broad range...... of failed clinical trials, reflects the need for a better understanding of the chemokine system. Thus, understanding the character, direction, and consequence of biased signaling in the chemokine system may aid the development of new therapeutics. This review describes experiments to assess G protein...

  14. Symmetry as Bias: Rediscovering Special Relativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, Michael R.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes a rational reconstruction of Einstein's discovery of special relativity, validated through an implementation: the Erlanger program. Einstein's discovery of special relativity revolutionized both the content of physics and the research strategy used by theoretical physicists. This research strategy entails a mutual bootstrapping process between a hypothesis space for biases, defined through different postulated symmetries of the universe, and a hypothesis space for physical theories. The invariance principle mutually constrains these two spaces. The invariance principle enables detecting when an evolving physical theory becomes inconsistent with its bias, and also when the biases for theories describing different phenomena are inconsistent. Structural properties of the invariance principle facilitate generating a new bias when an inconsistency is detected. After a new bias is generated. this principle facilitates reformulating the old, inconsistent theory by treating the latter as a limiting approximation. The structural properties of the invariance principle can be suitably generalized to other types of biases to enable primal-dual learning.

  15. Long-branch attraction bias and inconsistency in Bayesian phylogenetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolaczkowski, Bryan; Thornton, Joseph W

    2009-12-09

    Bayesian inference (BI) of phylogenetic relationships uses the same probabilistic models of evolution as its precursor maximum likelihood (ML), so BI has generally been assumed to share ML's desirable statistical properties, such as largely unbiased inference of topology given an accurate model and increasingly reliable inferences as the amount of data increases. Here we show that BI, unlike ML, is biased in favor of topologies that group long branches together, even when the true model and prior distributions of evolutionary parameters over a group of phylogenies are known. Using experimental simulation studies and numerical and mathematical analyses, we show that this bias becomes more severe as more data are analyzed, causing BI to infer an incorrect tree as the maximum a posteriori phylogeny with asymptotically high support as sequence length approaches infinity. BI's long branch attraction bias is relatively weak when the true model is simple but becomes pronounced when sequence sites evolve heterogeneously, even when this complexity is incorporated in the model. This bias--which is apparent under both controlled simulation conditions and in analyses of empirical sequence data--also makes BI less efficient and less robust to the use of an incorrect evolutionary model than ML. Surprisingly, BI's bias is caused by one of the method's stated advantages--that it incorporates uncertainty about branch lengths by integrating over a distribution of possible values instead of estimating them from the data, as ML does. Our findings suggest that trees inferred using BI should be interpreted with caution and that ML may be a more reliable framework for modern phylogenetic analysis.

  16. Long-branch attraction bias and inconsistency in Bayesian phylogenetics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryan Kolaczkowski

    Full Text Available Bayesian inference (BI of phylogenetic relationships uses the same probabilistic models of evolution as its precursor maximum likelihood (ML, so BI has generally been assumed to share ML's desirable statistical properties, such as largely unbiased inference of topology given an accurate model and increasingly reliable inferences as the amount of data increases. Here we show that BI, unlike ML, is biased in favor of topologies that group long branches together, even when the true model and prior distributions of evolutionary parameters over a group of phylogenies are known. Using experimental simulation studies and numerical and mathematical analyses, we show that this bias becomes more severe as more data are analyzed, causing BI to infer an incorrect tree as the maximum a posteriori phylogeny with asymptotically high support as sequence length approaches infinity. BI's long branch attraction bias is relatively weak when the true model is simple but becomes pronounced when sequence sites evolve heterogeneously, even when this complexity is incorporated in the model. This bias--which is apparent under both controlled simulation conditions and in analyses of empirical sequence data--also makes BI less efficient and less robust to the use of an incorrect evolutionary model than ML. Surprisingly, BI's bias is caused by one of the method's stated advantages--that it incorporates uncertainty about branch lengths by integrating over a distribution of possible values instead of estimating them from the data, as ML does. Our findings suggest that trees inferred using BI should be interpreted with caution and that ML may be a more reliable framework for modern phylogenetic analysis.

  17. Social desirability bias in dietary self-report may compromise the validity of dietary intake measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hebert, J R; Clemow, L; Pbert, L; Ockene, I S; Ockene, J K

    1995-04-01

    Self-report of dietary intake could be biased by social desirability or social approval thus affecting risk estimates in epidemiological studies. These constructs produce response set biases, which are evident when testing in domains characterized by easily recognizable correct or desirable responses. Given the social and psychological value ascribed to diet, assessment methodologies used most commonly in epidemiological studies are particularly vulnerable to these biases. Social desirability and social approval biases were tested by comparing nutrient scores derived from multiple 24-hour diet recalls (24HR) on seven randomly assigned days with those from two 7-day diet recalls (7DDR) (similar in some respects to commonly used food frequency questionnaires), one administered at the beginning of the test period (pre) and one at the end (post). Statistical analysis included correlation and multiple linear regression. Cross-sectionally, no relationships between social approval score and the nutritional variables existed. Social desirability score was negatively correlated with most nutritional variables. In linear regression analysis, social desirability score produced a large downward bias in nutrient estimation in the 7DDR relative to the 24HR. For total energy, this bias equalled about 50 kcal/point on the social desirability scale or about 450 kcal over its interquartile range. The bias was approximately twice as large for women as for men and only about half as large in the post measures. Individuals having the highest 24HR-derived fat and total energy intake scores had the largest downward bias due to social desirability. We observed a large downward bias in reporting food intake related to social desirability score. These results are consistent with the theoretical constructs on which the hypothesis is based. The effect of social desirability bias is discussed in terms of its influence on epidemiological estimates of effect. Suggestions are made for future work

  18. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  19. An inclusive taxonomy of behavioral biases

    OpenAIRE

    David Peón; Manel Antelo; Anxo Calvo-Silvosa

    2017-01-01

    This paper overviews the theoretical and empirical research on behavioral biases and their influence in the literature. To provide a systematic exposition, we present a unified framework that takes the reader through an original taxonomy, based on the reviews of relevant authors in the field. In particular, we establish three broad categories that may be distinguished: heuristics and biases; choices, values and frames; and social factors. We then describe the main biases within each category,...

  20. Evaluation of bias and variance in low-count OSEM list mode reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jian, Y; Carson, R E; Planeta, B

    2015-01-01

    Statistical algorithms have been widely used in PET image reconstruction. The maximum likelihood expectation maximization reconstruction has been shown to produce bias in applications where images are reconstructed from a relatively small number of counts. In this study, image bias and variability in low-count OSEM reconstruction are investigated on images reconstructed with MOLAR (motion-compensation OSEM list-mode algorithm for resolution-recovery reconstruction) platform. A human brain ([ 11 C]AFM) and a NEMA phantom are used in the simulation and real experiments respectively, for the HRRT and Biograph mCT. Image reconstructions were repeated with different combinations of subsets and iterations. Regions of interest were defined on low-activity and high-activity regions to evaluate the bias and noise at matched effective iteration numbers (iterations × subsets). Minimal negative biases and no positive biases were found at moderate count levels and less than 5% negative bias was found using extremely low levels of counts (0.2 M NEC). At any given count level, other factors, such as subset numbers and frame-based scatter correction may introduce small biases (1–5%) in the reconstructed images. The observed bias was substantially lower than that reported in the literature, perhaps due to the use of point spread function and/or other implementation methods in MOLAR. (paper)

  1. Cognitive Biases and Nonverbal Cue Availability in Detecting Deception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgoon, Judee K.; Blair, J. Pete; Strom, Renee E.

    2008-01-01

    In potentially deceptive situations, people rely on mental shortcuts to help process information. These heuristic judgments are often biased and result in inaccurate assessments of sender veracity. Four such biases--truth bias, visual bias, demeanor bias, and expectancy violation bias--were examined in a judgment experiment that varied nonverbal…

  2. Attribution bias and social anxiety in schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amelie M. Achim

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Studies on attribution biases in schizophrenia have produced mixed results, whereas such biases have been more consistently reported in people with anxiety disorders. Anxiety comorbidities are frequent in schizophrenia, in particular social anxiety disorder, which could influence their patterns of attribution biases. The objective of the present study was thus to determine if individuals with schizophrenia and a comorbid social anxiety disorder (SZ+ show distinct attribution biases as compared with individuals with schizophrenia without social anxiety (SZ− and healthy controls. Attribution biases were assessed with the Internal, Personal, and Situational Attributions Questionnaire in 41 individual with schizophrenia and 41 healthy controls. Results revealed the lack of the normal externalizing bias in SZ+, whereas SZ− did not significantly differ from healthy controls on this dimension. The personalizing bias was not influenced by social anxiety but was in contrast linked with delusions, with a greater personalizing bias in individuals with current delusions. Future studies on attribution biases in schizophrenia should carefully document symptom presentation, including social anxiety.

  3. Biased lineups: sequential presentation reduces the problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, R C; Lea, J A; Nosworthy, G J; Fulford, J A; Hector, J; LeVan, V; Seabrook, C

    1991-12-01

    Biased lineups have been shown to increase significantly false, but not correct, identification rates (Lindsay, Wallbridge, & Drennan, 1987; Lindsay & Wells, 1980; Malpass & Devine, 1981). Lindsay and Wells (1985) found that sequential lineup presentation reduced false identification rates, presumably by reducing reliance on relative judgment processes. Five staged-crime experiments were conducted to examine the effect of lineup biases and sequential presentation on eyewitness recognition accuracy. Sequential lineup presentation significantly reduced false identification rates from fair lineups as well as from lineups biased with regard to foil similarity, instructions, or witness attire, and from lineups biased in all of these ways. The results support recommendations that police present lineups sequentially.

  4. National Statistical Commission and Indian Official Statistics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Author Affiliations. T J Rao1. C. R. Rao Advanced Institute of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science (AIMSCS) University of Hyderabad Campus Central University Post Office, Prof. C. R. Rao Road Hyderabad 500 046, AP, India.

  5. Ensemble stacking mitigates biases in inference of synaptic connectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brendan Chambers

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A promising alternative to directly measuring the anatomical connections in a neuronal population is inferring the connections from the activity. We employ simulated spiking neuronal networks to compare and contrast commonly used inference methods that identify likely excitatory synaptic connections using statistical regularities in spike timing. We find that simple adjustments to standard algorithms improve inference accuracy: A signing procedure improves the power of unsigned mutual-information-based approaches and a correction that accounts for differences in mean and variance of background timing relationships, such as those expected to be induced by heterogeneous firing rates, increases the sensitivity of frequency-based methods. We also find that different inference methods reveal distinct subsets of the synaptic network and each method exhibits different biases in the accurate detection of reciprocity and local clustering. To correct for errors and biases specific to single inference algorithms, we combine methods into an ensemble. Ensemble predictions, generated as a linear combination of multiple inference algorithms, are more sensitive than the best individual measures alone, and are more faithful to ground-truth statistics of connectivity, mitigating biases specific to single inference methods. These weightings generalize across simulated datasets, emphasizing the potential for the broad utility of ensemble-based approaches. Mapping the routing of spikes through local circuitry is crucial for understanding neocortical computation. Under appropriate experimental conditions, these maps can be used to infer likely patterns of synaptic recruitment, linking activity to underlying anatomical connections. Such inferences help to reveal the synaptic implementation of population dynamics and computation. We compare a number of standard functional measures to infer underlying connectivity. We find that regularization impacts measures

  6. Biasing secondary particle interaction physics and production in MCNP6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fensin, M.L.; James, M.R.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Biasing secondary production and interactions of charged particles in the tabular energy regime. • Examining lower weight window bounds for rare events when using Russian roulette. • The new biasing strategy can speedup calculations by a factor of 1 million or more. - Abstract: Though MCNP6 will transport elementary charged particles and light ions to low energies (i.e. less than 20 MeV), MCNP6 has historically relied on model physics with suggested minimum energies of ∼20 to 200 MeV. Use of library data for the low energy regime was developed for MCNP6 1.1.Beta to read and use light ion libraries. Thick target yields of neutron production for alphas on fluoride result in 1 production event per roughly million sampled alphas depending on the energy of the alpha (for other isotopes the yield can be even rarer). Calculation times to achieve statistically significant and converged thick target yields are quite laborious, needing over one hundred processor hours. The MUCEND code possess a biasing technique for improving the sampling of secondary particle production by forcing a nuclear interaction to occur per each alpha transported. We present here a different biasing strategy for secondary particle production from charged particles. During each substep, as the charged particle slows down, we bias both a nuclear collision event to occur at each substep and the production of secondary particles at the collision event, while still continuing to progress the charged particle until reaching a region of zero importance or an energy/time cutoff. This biasing strategy is capable of speeding up calculations by a factor of a million or more as compared to the unbiased calculation. Further presented here are both proof that the biasing strategy is capable of producing the same results as the unbiased calculation and the limitations to consider in order to achieve accurate results of secondary particle production. Though this strategy was developed for MCNP

  7. Statistics For Dummies

    CERN Document Server

    Rumsey, Deborah

    2011-01-01

    The fun and easy way to get down to business with statistics Stymied by statistics? No fear ? this friendly guide offers clear, practical explanations of statistical ideas, techniques, formulas, and calculations, with lots of examples that show you how these concepts apply to your everyday life. Statistics For Dummies shows you how to interpret and critique graphs and charts, determine the odds with probability, guesstimate with confidence using confidence intervals, set up and carry out a hypothesis test, compute statistical formulas, and more.Tracks to a typical first semester statistics cou

  8. Industrial statistics with Minitab

    CERN Document Server

    Cintas, Pere Grima; Llabres, Xavier Tort-Martorell

    2012-01-01

    Industrial Statistics with MINITAB demonstrates the use of MINITAB as a tool for performing statistical analysis in an industrial context. This book covers introductory industrial statistics, exploring the most commonly used techniques alongside those that serve to give an overview of more complex issues. A plethora of examples in MINITAB are featured along with case studies for each of the statistical techniques presented. Industrial Statistics with MINITAB: Provides comprehensive coverage of user-friendly practical guidance to the essential statistical methods applied in industry.Explores

  9. Testing human sperm chemotaxis: how to detect biased motion in population assays.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leah Armon

    Full Text Available Biased motion of motile cells in a concentration gradient of a chemoattractant is frequently studied on the population level. This approach has been particularly employed in human sperm chemotactic assays, where the fraction of responsive cells is low and detection of biased motion depends on subtle differences. In these assays, statistical measures such as population odds ratios of swimming directions can be employed to infer chemotactic performance. Here, we report on an improved method to assess statistical significance of experimentally determined odds ratios and discuss the strong impact of data correlations that arise from the directional persistence of sperm swimming.

  10. Dipole-induced exchange bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Felipe; Morales, Rafael; Schuller, Ivan K; Kiwi, Miguel

    2017-11-09

    The discovery of dipole-induced exchange bias (EB), switching from negative to positive sign, is reported in systems where the antiferromagnet and the ferromagnet are separated by a paramagnetic spacer (AFM-PM-FM). The magnitude and sign of the EB is determined by the cooling field strength and the PM thickness. The same cooling field yields negative EB for thin spacers, and positive EB for thicker ones. The EB decay profile as a function of the spacer thickness, and the change of sign, are attributed to long-ranged dipole coupling. Our model, which accounts quantitatively for the experimental results, ignores the short range interfacial exchange interactions of the usual EB theories. Instead, it retains solely the long range dipole field that allows for the coupling of the FM and AFM across the PM spacer. The experiments allow for novel switching capabilities of long range EB systems, while the theory allows description of the structures where the FM and AFM are not in atomic contact. The results provide a new approach to design novel interacting heterostructures.

  11. Media bias under direct and indirect government control: when is the bias smaller?

    OpenAIRE

    Abhra Roy

    2015-01-01

    We present an analytical framework to compare media bias under direct and indirect government control. In this context, we show that direct control can lead to a smaller bias and higher welfare than indirect control. We further show that the size of the advertising market affects media bias only under direct control. Media bias, under indirect control, is not affected by the size of the advertising market.

  12. Recreational Boating Statistics 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Every year, the USCG compiles statistics on reported recreational boating accidents. These statistics are derived from accident reports that are filed by the owners...

  13. Recreational Boating Statistics 2013

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Every year, the USCG compiles statistics on reported recreational boating accidents. These statistics are derived from accident reports that are filed by the owners...

  14. Statistical data analysis handbook

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wall, Francis J

    1986-01-01

    It must be emphasized that this is not a text book on statistics. Instead it is a working tool that presents data analysis in clear, concise terms which can be readily understood even by those without formal training in statistics...

  15. CMS Program Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The CMS Office of Enterprise Data and Analytics has developed CMS Program Statistics, which includes detailed summary statistics on national health care, Medicare...

  16. Recreational Boating Statistics 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Every year, the USCG compiles statistics on reported recreational boating accidents. These statistics are derived from accident reports that are filed by the owners...

  17. Uterine Cancer Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Doing AMIGAS Stay Informed Cancer Home Uterine Cancer Statistics Language: English (US) Español (Spanish) Recommend on Facebook ... the most commonly diagnosed gynecologic cancer. U.S. Cancer Statistics Data Visualizations Tool The Data Visualizations tool makes ...

  18. Tuberculosis Data and Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Advisory Groups Federal TB Task Force Data and Statistics Language: English (US) Español (Spanish) Recommend on Facebook ... Set) Mortality and Morbidity Weekly Reports Data and Statistics Decrease in Reported Tuberculosis Cases MMWR 2010; 59 ( ...

  19. National transportation statistics 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-01

    Compiled and published by the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics : (BTS), National Transportation Statistics presents information on the U.S. transportation system, including : its physical components, safety reco...

  20. National Transportation Statistics 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-08

    Compiled and published by the U.S. Department of Transportations Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), National Transportation Statistics presents information on the U.S. transportation system, including its physical components, safety record...

  1. Mental Illness Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... News & Events About Us Home > Health Information Share Statistics Research shows that mental illnesses are common in ... of mental illnesses, such as suicide and disability. Statistics Top ı cs Mental Illness Any Anxiety Disorder ...

  2. School Violence: Data & Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Social Media Publications Injury Center School Violence: Data & Statistics Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir The first ... Vehicle Safety Traumatic Brain Injury Injury Response Data & Statistics (WISQARS) Funded Programs Press Room Social Media Publications ...

  3. Caregiver Statistics: Demographics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... You are here Home Selected Long-Term Care Statistics Order this publication Printer-friendly version What is ... needs and services are wide-ranging and complex, statistics may vary from study to study. Sources for ...

  4. Aortic Aneurysm Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Summary Coverdell Program 2012-2015 State Summaries Data & Statistics Fact Sheets Heart Disease and Stroke Fact Sheets ... Roadmap for State Planning Other Data Resources Other Statistic Resources Grantee Information Cross-Program Information Online Tools ...

  5. Alcohol Facts and Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Standard Drink? Drinking Levels Defined Alcohol Facts and Statistics Print version Alcohol Use in the United States: ... 1238–1245, 2004. PMID: 15010446 National Center for Statistics and Analysis. 2014 Crash Data Key Findings (Traffic ...

  6. National Transportation Statistics 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-21

    Compiled and published by the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), National Transportation Statistics presents information on the U.S. transportation system, including its physical components, safety record, ...

  7. National transportation statistics 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    National Transportation Statistics presents statistics on the U.S. transportation system, including its physical components, safety record, economic performance, the human and natural environment, and national security. This is a large online documen...

  8. Statistics for Finance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindström, Erik; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Jan Nygaard

    Statistics for Finance develops students’ professional skills in statistics with applications in finance. Developed from the authors’ courses at the Technical University of Denmark and Lund University, the text bridges the gap between classical, rigorous treatments of financial mathematics...

  9. Principles of applied statistics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cox, D. R; Donnelly, Christl A

    2011-01-01

    .... David Cox and Christl Donnelly distil decades of scientific experience into usable principles for the successful application of statistics, showing how good statistical strategy shapes every stage of an investigation...

  10. Constructing diagnostic likelihood: clinical decisions using subjective versus statistical probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnear, John; Jackson, Ruth

    2017-07-01

    Although physicians are highly trained in the application of evidence-based medicine, and are assumed to make rational decisions, there is evidence that their decision making is prone to biases. One of the biases that has been shown to affect accuracy of judgements is that of representativeness and base-rate neglect, where the saliency of a person's features leads to overestimation of their likelihood of belonging to a group. This results in the substitution of 'subjective' probability for statistical probability. This study examines clinicians' propensity to make estimations of subjective probability when presented with clinical information that is considered typical of a medical condition. The strength of the representativeness bias is tested by presenting choices in textual and graphic form. Understanding of statistical probability is also tested by omitting all clinical information. For the questions that included clinical information, 46.7% and 45.5% of clinicians made judgements of statistical probability, respectively. Where the question omitted clinical information, 79.9% of clinicians made a judgement consistent with statistical probability. There was a statistically significant difference in responses to the questions with and without representativeness information (χ2 (1, n=254)=54.45, pprobability. One of the causes for this representativeness bias may be the way clinical medicine is taught where stereotypic presentations are emphasised in diagnostic decision making. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  11. Applying contemporary statistical techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Wilcox, Rand R

    2003-01-01

    Applying Contemporary Statistical Techniques explains why traditional statistical methods are often inadequate or outdated when applied to modern problems. Wilcox demonstrates how new and more powerful techniques address these problems far more effectively, making these modern robust methods understandable, practical, and easily accessible.* Assumes no previous training in statistics * Explains how and why modern statistical methods provide more accurate results than conventional methods* Covers the latest developments on multiple comparisons * Includes recent advanc

  12. Developmental Changes in the Whole Number Bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braithwaite, David W.; Siegler, Robert S.

    2018-01-01

    Many students' knowledge of fractions is adversely affected by whole number bias, the tendency to focus on the separate whole number components (numerator and denominator) of a fraction rather than on the fraction's magnitude (ratio of numerator to denominator). Although whole number bias appears early in the fraction learning process and under…

  13. Bounding the bias of contrastive divergence learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Anja; Igel, Christian

    2011-01-01

    Optimization based on k-step contrastive divergence (CD) has become a common way to train restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs). The k-step CD is a biased estimator of the log-likelihood gradient relying on Gibbs sampling. We derive a new upper bound for this bias. Its magnitude depends on k...

  14. Distinctive Characteristics of Sexual Orientation Bias Crimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stacey, Michele

    2011-01-01

    Despite increased attention in the area of hate crime research in the past 20 years, sexual orientation bias crimes have rarely been singled out for study. When these types of crimes are looked at, the studies are typically descriptive in nature. This article seeks to increase our knowledge of sexual orientation bias by answering the question:…

  15. Dialogue Games for Inconsistent and Biased Information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lebbink, H.J.; Witteman, C.L.M.; Meyer, J.J.C.

    2003-01-01

    In this article, a dialogue game is presented in which coherent conversational sequences with inconsistent and biased information are described at the speech act level. Inconsistent and biased information is represented with bilattice structures, and based on these bilattice structures, a

  16. Gender Bias: Inequities in the Classroom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Reeve

    1993-01-01

    This article explores sex bias in curricular materials for elementary and secondary schools. Sex bias is defined as a set of unconscious behaviors that, in themselves, are often trivial and generally favorable. Although these behaviors do not hurt if they happen only once, they can cause a great deal of harm if a pattern develops that serves to…

  17. The Battle over Studies of Faculty Bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravois, John

    2007-01-01

    The American Federation of Teachers (AFT) recently commissioned a study to review the research that finds liberal bias run amok in academe. Believing that the AFT is not a dispassionate observer of this debate, this article provides "The Chronicle of Higher Education's" survey of the genre. The studies reviewed include: (1) "Political Bias in the…

  18. Interactive statistics with ILLMO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martens, J.B.O.S.

    2014-01-01

    Progress in empirical research relies on adequate statistical analysis and reporting. This article proposes an alternative approach to statistical modeling that is based on an old but mostly forgotten idea, namely Thurstone modeling. Traditional statistical methods assume that either the measured

  19. Ethics in Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenard, Christopher; McCarthy, Sally; Mills, Terence

    2014-01-01

    There are many different aspects of statistics. Statistics involves mathematics, computing, and applications to almost every field of endeavour. Each aspect provides an opportunity to spark someone's interest in the subject. In this paper we discuss some ethical aspects of statistics, and describe how an introduction to ethics has been…

  20. Youth Sports Safety Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 6):794-799. 31 American Heart Association. CPR statistics. www.heart.org/HEARTORG/CPRAndECC/WhatisCPR/CPRFactsandStats/CPRpercent20Statistics_ ... Mental Health Services Administration, Center for Behavioral Health Statistics and Quality. (January 10, 2013). The DAWN Report: ...

  1. Production bias and cluster annihilation: Why necessary?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, B.N.; Trinkaus, H.; Woo, C.H.

    1994-01-01

    the primary cluster density is high. Therefore, a sustained high swelling rate driven by production bias must involve the annihilation of primary clusters at sinks. A number of experimental observations which are unexplainable in terms of the conventional dislocation bias for monointerstitials is considered......-field approach. The production bias approach, on the other hand, is based on the physical features of the cascade damage and is therefore considered to be more appropriate for describing the damage accumulation under cascade damage conditions. However, production bias can not produce high a swelling rate when....... It is found that the production bias and cluster annihilation are necessary to explain these observations, with, in many cases, the explicit consideration of the annihilation of the primary interstitial clusters....

  2. Gender bias in cardiovascular advertisements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Sofia B; Grace, Sherry L; Stelfox, Henry Thomas; Tomlinson, George; Cheung, Angela M

    2004-11-01

    Women with cardiovascular disease are treated less aggressively than men. The reasons for this disparity are unclear. Pharmaceutical advertisements may influence physician practices and patient care. To determine if female and male patients are equally likely to be featured in cardiovascular advertisements. We examined all cardiovascular advertisements from US editions of general medical and cardiovascular journals published between 1 January 1996 and 30 June 1998. For each unique advertisement, we recorded the total number of journal appearances and the number of appearances in journals' premium positions. We noted the gender, age, race and role of both the primary figure and the majority of people featured in the advertisement. Nine hundred and nineteen unique cardiovascular advertisements were identified of which 254 depicted a patient as the primary figure. A total of 20%[95% confidence interval (CI) 15.3-25.5%] of these advertisements portrayed a female patient, while 80% (95% CI 74.5-84.7%) depicted a male patient, P advertisements appeared 249 times (13.3%; 95% CI 8.6-18.9%) while male patient advertisements appeared 1618 times (86.7%; 95% CI 81.1-91.4%), P advertisements also had significantly fewer mean appearances than male patient advertisements in journals' premium positions (0.82 vs. 1.99, P=0.02). Similar results were seen when the advertisements were analysed according to predominant gender. Despite increasing emphasis on cardiovascular disease in women, significant under-representation of female patients exists in cardiovascular advertisements. Physicians should be cognizant of this gender bias.

  3. Undesirable Choice Biases with Small Differences in the Spatial Structure of Chance Stimulus Sequences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Herrera

    Full Text Available In two-alternative discrimination tasks, experimenters usually randomize the location of the rewarded stimulus so that systematic behavior with respect to irrelevant stimuli can only produce chance performance on the learning curves. One way to achieve this is to use random numbers derived from a discrete binomial distribution to create a 'full random training schedule' (FRS. When using FRS, however, sporadic but long laterally-biased training sequences occur by chance and such 'input biases' are thought to promote the generation of laterally-biased choices (i.e., 'output biases'. As an alternative, a 'Gellerman-like training schedule' (GLS can be used. It removes most input biases by prohibiting the reward from appearing on the same location for more than three consecutive trials. The sequence of past rewards obtained from choosing a particular discriminative stimulus influences the probability of choosing that same stimulus on subsequent trials. Assuming that the long-term average ratio of choices matches the long-term average ratio of reinforcers, we hypothesized that a reduced amount of input biases in GLS compared to FRS should lead to a reduced production of output biases. We compared the choice patterns produced by a 'Rational Decision Maker' (RDM in response to computer-generated FRS and GLS training sequences. To create a virtual RDM, we implemented an algorithm that generated choices based on past rewards. Our simulations revealed that, although the GLS presented fewer input biases than the FRS, the virtual RDM produced more output biases with GLS than with FRS under a variety of test conditions. Our results reveal that the statistical and temporal properties of training sequences interacted with the RDM to influence the production of output biases. Thus, discrete changes in the training paradigms did not translate linearly into modifications in the pattern of choices generated by a RDM. Virtual RDMs could be further employed to guide

  4. Undesirable Choice Biases with Small Differences in the Spatial Structure of Chance Stimulus Sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, David; Treviño, Mario

    2015-01-01

    In two-alternative discrimination tasks, experimenters usually randomize the location of the rewarded stimulus so that systematic behavior with respect to irrelevant stimuli can only produce chance performance on the learning curves. One way to achieve this is to use random numbers derived from a discrete binomial distribution to create a 'full random training schedule' (FRS). When using FRS, however, sporadic but long laterally-biased training sequences occur by chance and such 'input biases' are thought to promote the generation of laterally-biased choices (i.e., 'output biases'). As an alternative, a 'Gellerman-like training schedule' (GLS) can be used. It removes most input biases by prohibiting the reward from appearing on the same location for more than three consecutive trials. The sequence of past rewards obtained from choosing a particular discriminative stimulus influences the probability of choosing that same stimulus on subsequent trials. Assuming that the long-term average ratio of choices matches the long-term average ratio of reinforcers, we hypothesized that a reduced amount of input biases in GLS compared to FRS should lead to a reduced production of output biases. We compared the choice patterns produced by a 'Rational Decision Maker' (RDM) in response to computer-generated FRS and GLS training sequences. To create a virtual RDM, we implemented an algorithm that generated choices based on past rewards. Our simulations revealed that, although the GLS presented fewer input biases than the FRS, the virtual RDM produced more output biases with GLS than with FRS under a variety of test conditions. Our results reveal that the statistical and temporal properties of training sequences interacted with the RDM to influence the production of output biases. Thus, discrete changes in the training paradigms did not translate linearly into modifications in the pattern of choices generated by a RDM. Virtual RDMs could be further employed to guide the selection of

  5. Statistics for Research

    CERN Document Server

    Dowdy, Shirley; Chilko, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    Praise for the Second Edition "Statistics for Research has other fine qualities besides superior organization. The examples and the statistical methods are laid out with unusual clarity by the simple device of using special formats for each. The book was written with great care and is extremely user-friendly."-The UMAP Journal Although the goals and procedures of statistical research have changed little since the Second Edition of Statistics for Research was published, the almost universal availability of personal computers and statistical computing application packages have made it possible f

  6. Statistics in a nutshell

    CERN Document Server

    Boslaugh, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Need to learn statistics for your job? Want help passing a statistics course? Statistics in a Nutshell is a clear and concise introduction and reference for anyone new to the subject. Thoroughly revised and expanded, this edition helps you gain a solid understanding of statistics without the numbing complexity of many college texts. Each chapter presents easy-to-follow descriptions, along with graphics, formulas, solved examples, and hands-on exercises. If you want to perform common statistical analyses and learn a wide range of techniques without getting in over your head, this is your book.

  7. Statistics & probaility for dummies

    CERN Document Server

    Rumsey, Deborah J

    2013-01-01

    Two complete eBooks for one low price! Created and compiled by the publisher, this Statistics I and Statistics II bundle brings together two math titles in one, e-only bundle. With this special bundle, you'll get the complete text of the following two titles: Statistics For Dummies, 2nd Edition  Statistics For Dummies shows you how to interpret and critique graphs and charts, determine the odds with probability, guesstimate with confidence using confidence intervals, set up and carry out a hypothesis test, compute statistical formulas, and more. Tra

  8. Nonparametric statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Gibbons, Jean Dickinson

    2010-01-01

    Overall, this remains a very fine book suitable for a graduate-level course in nonparametric statistics. I recommend it for all people interested in learning the basic ideas of nonparametric statistical inference.-Eugenia Stoimenova, Journal of Applied Statistics, June 2012… one of the best books available for a graduate (or advanced undergraduate) text for a theory course on nonparametric statistics. … a very well-written and organized book on nonparametric statistics, especially useful and recommended for teachers and graduate students.-Biometrics, 67, September 2011This excellently presente

  9. Business statistics for dummies

    CERN Document Server

    Anderson, Alan

    2013-01-01

    Score higher in your business statistics course? Easy. Business statistics is a common course for business majors and MBA candidates. It examines common data sets and the proper way to use such information when conducting research and producing informational reports such as profit and loss statements, customer satisfaction surveys, and peer comparisons. Business Statistics For Dummies tracks to a typical business statistics course offered at the undergraduate and graduate levels and provides clear, practical explanations of business statistical ideas, techniques, formulas, and calculations, w

  10. Head First Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Griffiths, Dawn

    2009-01-01

    Wouldn't it be great if there were a statistics book that made histograms, probability distributions, and chi square analysis more enjoyable than going to the dentist? Head First Statistics brings this typically dry subject to life, teaching you everything you want and need to know about statistics through engaging, interactive, and thought-provoking material, full of puzzles, stories, quizzes, visual aids, and real-world examples. Whether you're a student, a professional, or just curious about statistical analysis, Head First's brain-friendly formula helps you get a firm grasp of statistics

  11. No arousal-biased competition in focused visuospatial attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ásgeirsson, Árni Gunnar; Nieuwenhuis, Sander

    2017-11-01

    Arousal sometimes enhances and sometimes impairs perception and memory. A recent theory attempts to reconcile these findings by proposing that arousal amplifies the competition between stimulus representations, strengthening already strong representations and weakening already weak representations. Here, we report a stringent test of this arousal-biased competition theory in the context of focused visuospatial attention. Participants were required to identify a briefly presented target in the context of multiple distractors, which varied in the degree to which they competed for representation with the target, as revealed by psychophysics. We manipulated arousal using emotionally arousing pictures (Experiment 1), alerting tones (Experiment 2) and white-noise stimulation (Experiment 3), and validated these manipulations with electroencephalography and pupillometry. In none of the experiments did we find evidence that arousal modulated the effect of distractor competition on the accuracy of target identification. Bayesian statistics revealed moderate to strong evidence against arousal-biased competition. Modeling of the psychophysical data based on Bundesen's (1990) theory of visual attention corroborated the conclusion that arousal does not bias competition in focused visuospatial attention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Lectures on algebraic statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Drton, Mathias; Sullivant, Seth

    2009-01-01

    How does an algebraic geometer studying secant varieties further the understanding of hypothesis tests in statistics? Why would a statistician working on factor analysis raise open problems about determinantal varieties? Connections of this type are at the heart of the new field of "algebraic statistics". In this field, mathematicians and statisticians come together to solve statistical inference problems using concepts from algebraic geometry as well as related computational and combinatorial techniques. The goal of these lectures is to introduce newcomers from the different camps to algebraic statistics. The introduction will be centered around the following three observations: many important statistical models correspond to algebraic or semi-algebraic sets of parameters; the geometry of these parameter spaces determines the behaviour of widely used statistical inference procedures; computational algebraic geometry can be used to study parameter spaces and other features of statistical models.

  13. Statistics for economics

    CERN Document Server

    Naghshpour, Shahdad

    2012-01-01

    Statistics is the branch of mathematics that deals with real-life problems. As such, it is an essential tool for economists. Unfortunately, the way you and many other economists learn the concept of statistics is not compatible with the way economists think and learn. The problem is worsened by the use of mathematical jargon and complex derivations. Here's a book that proves none of this is necessary. All the examples and exercises in this book are constructed within the field of economics, thus eliminating the difficulty of learning statistics with examples from fields that have no relation to business, politics, or policy. Statistics is, in fact, not more difficult than economics. Anyone who can comprehend economics can understand and use statistics successfully within this field, including you! This book utilizes Microsoft Excel to obtain statistical results, as well as to perform additional necessary computations. Microsoft Excel is not the software of choice for performing sophisticated statistical analy...

  14. Baseline Statistics of Linked Statistical Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scharnhorst, Andrea; Meroño-Peñuela, Albert; Guéret, Christophe

    2014-01-01

    We are surrounded by an ever increasing ocean of information, everybody will agree to that. We build sophisticated strategies to govern this information: design data models, develop infrastructures for data sharing, building tool for data analysis. Statistical datasets curated by National

  15. Variance bias analysis for the Gelbard's batch method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Jae Uk; Shim, Hyung Jin [Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    In this paper, variances and the bias will be derived analytically when the Gelbard's batch method is applied. And then, the real variance estimated from this bias will be compared with the real variance calculated from replicas. Variance and the bias were derived analytically when the batch method was applied. If the batch method was applied to calculate the sample variance, covariance terms between tallies which exist in the batch were eliminated from the bias. With the 2 by 2 fission matrix problem, we could calculate real variance regardless of whether or not the batch method was applied. However as batch size got larger, standard deviation of real variance was increased. When we perform a Monte Carlo estimation, we could get a sample variance as the statistical uncertainty of it. However, this value is smaller than the real variance of it because a sample variance is biased. To reduce this bias, Gelbard devised the method which is called the Gelbard's batch method. It has been certificated that a sample variance get closer to the real variance when the batch method is applied. In other words, the bias get reduced. This fact is well known to everyone in the MC field. However, so far, no one has given the analytical interpretation on it.

  16. Bias formulas for sensitivity analysis of unmeasured confounding for general outcomes, treatments, and confounders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanderweele, Tyler J; Arah, Onyebuchi A

    2011-01-01

    Uncontrolled confounding in observational studies gives rise to biased effect estimates. Sensitivity analysis techniques can be useful in assessing the magnitude of these biases. In this paper, we use the potential outcomes framework to derive a general class of sensitivity-analysis formulas for outcomes, treatments, and measured and unmeasured confounding variables that may be categorical or continuous. We give results for additive, risk-ratio and odds-ratio scales. We show that these results encompass a number of more specific sensitivity-analysis methods in the statistics and epidemiology literature. The applicability, usefulness, and limits of the bias-adjustment formulas are discussed. We illustrate the sensitivity-analysis techniques that follow from our results by applying them to 3 different studies. The bias formulas are particularly simple and easy to use in settings in which the unmeasured confounding variable is binary with constant effect on the outcome across treatment levels.

  17. A re-examination of the effects of biased lineup instructions in eyewitness identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Steven E

    2005-10-01

    A meta-analytic review of research comparing biased and unbiased instructions in eyewitness identification experiments showed an asymmetry; specifically, that biased instructions led to a large and consistent decrease in accuracy in target-absent lineups, but produced inconsistent results for target-present lineups, with an average effect size near zero (Steblay, 1997). The results for target-present lineups are surprising, and are inconsistent with statistical decision theories (i.e., Green & Swets, 1966). A re-examination of the relevant studies and the meta-analysis of those studies shows clear evidence that correct identification rates do increase with biased lineup instructions, and that biased witnesses make correct identifications at a rate considerably above chance. Implications for theory, as well as police procedure and policy, are discussed.

  18. Automation bias in electronic prescribing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyell, David; Magrabi, Farah; Raban, Magdalena Z; Pont, L G; Baysari, Melissa T; Day, Richard O; Coiera, Enrico

    2017-03-16

    Clinical decision support (CDS) in e-prescribing can improve safety by alerting potential errors, but introduces new sources of risk. Automation bias (AB) occurs when users over-rely on CDS, reducing vigilance in information seeking and processing. Evidence of AB has been found in other clinical tasks, but has not yet been tested with e-prescribing. This study tests for the presence of AB in e-prescribing and the impact of task complexity and interruptions on AB. One hundred and twenty students in the final two years of a medical degree prescribed medicines for nine clinical scenarios using a simulated e-prescribing system. Quality of CDS (correct, incorrect and no CDS) and task complexity (low, low + interruption and high) were varied between conditions. Omission errors (failure to detect prescribing errors) and commission errors (acceptance of false positive alerts) were measured. Compared to scenarios with no CDS, correct CDS reduced omission errors by 38.3% (p < .0001, n = 120), 46.6% (p < .0001, n = 70), and 39.2% (p < .0001, n = 120) for low, low + interrupt and high complexity scenarios respectively. Incorrect CDS increased omission errors by 33.3% (p < .0001, n = 120), 24.5% (p < .009, n = 82), and 26.7% (p < .0001, n = 120). Participants made commission errors, 65.8% (p < .0001, n = 120), 53.5% (p < .0001, n = 82), and 51.7% (p < .0001, n = 120). Task complexity and interruptions had no impact on AB. This study found evidence of AB omission and commission errors in e-prescribing. Verification of CDS alerts is key to avoiding AB errors. However, interventions focused on this have had limited success to date. Clinicians should remain vigilant to the risks of CDS failures and verify CDS.

  19. Biases in GNSS-Data Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaer, S. C.; Dach, R.; Lutz, S.; Meindl, M.; Beutler, G.

    2010-12-01

    Within the Global Positioning System (GPS) traditionally different types of pseudo-range measurements (P-code, C/A-code) are available on the first frequency that are tracked by the receivers with different technologies. For that reason, P1-C1 and P1-P2 Differential Code Biases (DCB) need to be considered in a GPS data processing with a mix of different receiver types. Since the Block IIR-M series of GPS satellites also provide C/A-code on the second frequency, P2-C2 DCB need to be added to the list of biases for maintenance. Potential quarter-cycle biases between different phase observables (specifically L2P and L2C) are another issue. When combining GNSS (currently GPS and GLONASS), careful consideration of inter-system biases (ISB) is indispensable, in particular when an adequate combination of individual GLONASS clock correction results from different sources (using, e.g., different software packages) is intended. Facing the GPS and GLONASS modernization programs and the upcoming GNSS, like the European Galileo and the Chinese Compass, an increasing number of types of biases is expected. The Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) is monitoring these GPS and GLONASS related biases for a long time based on RINEX files of the tracking network of the International GNSS Service (IGS) and in the frame of the data processing as one of the global analysis centers of the IGS. Within the presentation we give an overview on the stability of the biases based on the monitoring. Biases derived from different sources are compared. Finally, we give an outlook on the potential handling of such biases with the big variety of signals and systems expected in the future.

  20. Sampling bias in an internet treatment trial for depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donkin, L; Hickie, I B; Christensen, H; Naismith, S L; Neal, B; Cockayne, N L; Glozier, N

    2012-10-23

    Internet psychological interventions are efficacious and may reduce traditional access barriers. No studies have evaluated whether any sampling bias exists in these trials that may limit the translation of the results of these trials into real-world application. We identified 7999 potentially eligible trial participants from a community-based health cohort study and invited them to participate in a randomized controlled trial of an online cognitive behavioural therapy programme for people with depression. We compared those who consented to being assessed for trial inclusion with nonconsenters on demographic, clinical and behavioural indicators captured in the health study. Any potentially biasing factors were then assessed for their association with depression outcome among trial participants to evaluate the existence of sampling bias. Of the 35 health survey variables explored, only 4 were independently associated with higher likelihood of consenting-female sex (odds ratio (OR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.19), speaking English at home (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.15-1.90) higher education (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.46-1.92) and a prior diagnosis of depression (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.22-1.55). The multivariate model accounted for limited variance (C-statistic 0.6) in explaining participation. These four factors were not significantly associated with either the primary trial outcome measure or any differential impact by intervention arm. This demonstrates that, among eligible trial participants, few factors were associated with the consent to participate. There was no indication that such self-selection biased the trial results or would limit the generalizability and translation into a public or clinical setting.

  1. On the Limitations of Variational Bias Correction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moradi, Isaac; Mccarty, Will; Gelaro, Ronald

    2018-01-01

    Satellite radiances are the largest dataset assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, however the data are subject to errors and uncertainties that need to be accounted for before assimilating into the NWP models. Variational bias correction uses the time series of observation minus background to estimate the observations bias. This technique does not distinguish between the background error, forward operator error, and observations error so that all these errors are summed up together and counted as observation error. We identify some sources of observations errors (e.g., antenna emissivity, non-linearity in the calibration, and antenna pattern) and show the limitations of variational bias corrections on estimating these errors.

  2. Cognitive biases and decision making in gambling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chóliz, Mariano

    2010-08-01

    Heuristics and cognitive biases can occur in reasoning and decision making. Some of them are very common in gamblers (illusion of control, representativeness, availability, etc.). Structural characteristics and functioning of games of chance favor the appearance of these biases. Two experiments were conducted with nonpathological gamblers. The first experiment was a game of dice with wagers. In the second experiment, the participants played two bingo games. Specific rules of the games favored the appearance of cognitive bias (illusion of control) and heuristics (representativeness and availability) and influence on the bets. Results and implications for gambling are discussed.

  3. Removing Malmquist bias from linear regressions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verter, Frances

    1993-01-01

    Malmquist bias is present in all astronomical surveys where sources are observed above an apparent brightness threshold. Those sources which can be detected at progressively larger distances are progressively more limited to the intrinsically luminous portion of the true distribution. This bias does not distort any of the measurements, but distorts the sample composition. We have developed the first treatment to correct for Malmquist bias in linear regressions of astronomical data. A demonstration of the corrected linear regression that is computed in four steps is presented.

  4. Reducing status quo bias in choice experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonnichsen, Ole; Ladenburg, Jacob

    In stated preference literature, the tendency to choose the alternative representing the status quo situation seems to exceed real life status quo effects. Accordingly, status quo bias can be a problem. In Choice Experiments, status quo bias is found to be strongly correlated with protest attitudes...... toward the cost attribute. If economic values are to be elicited, this problem is difficult to remedy. In a split sample framework we test a novel ex-ante entreaty aimed specifically at the cost attribute and find that it effectively reduces status quo bias and improves the internal validity...

  5. delta-biased Josephson tunnel junctions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Monaco, R.; Mygind, Jesper; Koshelet, V.

    2010-01-01

    Abstract: The behavior of a long Josephson tunnel junction drastically depends on the distribution of the dc bias current. We investigate the case in which the bias current is fed in the central point of a one-dimensional junction. Such junction configuration has been recently used to detect...... the persistent currents circulating in a superconducting loop. Analytical and numerical results indicate that the presence of fractional vortices leads to remarkable differences from the conventional case of uniformly distributed dc bias current. The theoretical findings are supported by detailed measurements...

  6. Statistical Physics An Introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Yoshioka, Daijiro

    2007-01-01

    This book provides a comprehensive presentation of the basics of statistical physics. The first part explains the essence of statistical physics and how it provides a bridge between microscopic and macroscopic phenomena, allowing one to derive quantities such as entropy. Here the author avoids going into details such as Liouville’s theorem or the ergodic theorem, which are difficult for beginners and unnecessary for the actual application of the statistical mechanics. In the second part, statistical mechanics is applied to various systems which, although they look different, share the same mathematical structure. In this way readers can deepen their understanding of statistical physics. The book also features applications to quantum dynamics, thermodynamics, the Ising model and the statistical dynamics of free spins.

  7. Statistical symmetries in physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, H.S.; Adelaide Univ., SA

    1994-01-01

    Every law of physics is invariant under some group of transformations and is therefore the expression of some type of symmetry. Symmetries are classified as geometrical, dynamical or statistical. At the most fundamental level, statistical symmetries are expressed in the field theories of the elementary particles. This paper traces some of the developments from the discovery of Bose statistics, one of the two fundamental symmetries of physics. A series of generalizations of Bose statistics is described. A supersymmetric generalization accommodates fermions as well as bosons, and further generalizations, including parastatistics, modular statistics and graded statistics, accommodate particles with properties such as 'colour'. A factorization of elements of ggl(n b ,n f ) can be used to define truncated boson operators. A general construction is given for q-deformed boson operators, and explicit constructions of the same type are given for various 'deformed' algebras. A summary is given of some of the applications and potential applications. 39 refs., 2 figs

  8. The statistical stability phenomenon

    CERN Document Server

    Gorban, Igor I

    2017-01-01

    This monograph investigates violations of statistical stability of physical events, variables, and processes and develops a new physical-mathematical theory taking into consideration such violations – the theory of hyper-random phenomena. There are five parts. The first describes the phenomenon of statistical stability and its features, and develops methods for detecting violations of statistical stability, in particular when data is limited. The second part presents several examples of real processes of different physical nature and demonstrates the violation of statistical stability over broad observation intervals. The third part outlines the mathematical foundations of the theory of hyper-random phenomena, while the fourth develops the foundations of the mathematical analysis of divergent and many-valued functions. The fifth part contains theoretical and experimental studies of statistical laws where there is violation of statistical stability. The monograph should be of particular interest to engineers...

  9. The familiar versus the unfamiliar: Familiarity bias amongst individual investors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalien De Vries

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the existence of familiarity bias amongst individual investors in the South African stock market. Problem investigated: According to Warren Buffet, one needs to maintain emotional detachment if one wants to be a successful investor. However, recent research indicates that the perceptions of companies’ products and brands may influence individuals’ investment decisions in the stock market. This phenomenon implies that the investment decisions of individual investors are not purely based on firm fundamentals as suggested by traditional finance theories, but might be driven partly by the positive or negative attitude they have towards certain companies’ products and brands. The existence of familiarity bias amongst individual investors was investigated to determine if individuals prefer to invest in companies they are familiar with as opposed to unfamiliar companies. Methodology: A quantitative approach was followed. An online survey was used to show images of familiar and unfamiliar company brands to respondents, whereafter respondents were asked to indicate whether they will invest in the shares of the identified companies. The statistical analysis entailed descriptive statistics as well as one-way analyses of variance to test the stated hypotheses. Main findings: The results of this exploratory study indicate that investors do exhibit familiarity bias when choosing between different companies to invest in. Value of the research: The inclination of individual investors to invest in familiar corporate brands can have implications for the marketing industry, financial markets, the performance of companies as well as the investment performance of individual investors in the sense that it would seem that company brands could have an influence on investment decisions.

  10. Equilibrium statistical mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Jackson, E Atlee

    2000-01-01

    Ideal as an elementary introduction to equilibrium statistical mechanics, this volume covers both classical and quantum methodology for open and closed systems. Introductory chapters familiarize readers with probability and microscopic models of systems, while additional chapters describe the general derivation of the fundamental statistical mechanics relationships. The final chapter contains 16 sections, each dealing with a different application, ordered according to complexity, from classical through degenerate quantum statistical mechanics. Key features include an elementary introduction t

  11. Applied statistics for economists

    CERN Document Server

    Lewis, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    This book is an undergraduate text that introduces students to commonly-used statistical methods in economics. Using examples based on contemporary economic issues and readily-available data, it not only explains the mechanics of the various methods, it also guides students to connect statistical results to detailed economic interpretations. Because the goal is for students to be able to apply the statistical methods presented, online sources for economic data and directions for performing each task in Excel are also included.

  12. Mineral industry statistics 1975

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-01-01

    Production, consumption and marketing statistics are given for solid fuels (coal, peat), liquid fuels and gases (oil, natural gas), iron ore, bauxite and other minerals quarried in France, in 1975. Also accident statistics are included. Production statistics are presented of the Overseas Departments and territories (French Guiana, New Caledonia, New Hebrides). An account of modifications in the mining field in 1975 is given. Concessions, exploitation permits, and permits solely for prospecting for mineral products are discussed. (In French)

  13. Lectures on statistical mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Bowler, M G

    1982-01-01

    Anyone dissatisfied with the almost ritual dullness of many 'standard' texts in statistical mechanics will be grateful for the lucid explanation and generally reassuring tone. Aimed at securing firm foundations for equilibrium statistical mechanics, topics of great subtlety are presented transparently and enthusiastically. Very little mathematical preparation is required beyond elementary calculus and prerequisites in physics are limited to some elementary classical thermodynamics. Suitable as a basis for a first course in statistical mechanics, the book is an ideal supplement to more convent

  14. Introduction to Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjam Nielen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Always wondered why research papers often present rather complicated statistical analyses? Or wondered how to properly analyse the results of a pragmatic trial from your own practice? This talk will give an overview of basic statistical principles and focus on the why of statistics, rather than on the how.This is a podcast of Mirjam's talk at the Veterinary Evidence Today conference, Edinburgh November 2, 2016. 

  15. Equilibrium statistical mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Mayer, J E

    1968-01-01

    The International Encyclopedia of Physical Chemistry and Chemical Physics, Volume 1: Equilibrium Statistical Mechanics covers the fundamental principles and the development of theoretical aspects of equilibrium statistical mechanics. Statistical mechanical is the study of the connection between the macroscopic behavior of bulk matter and the microscopic properties of its constituent atoms and molecules. This book contains eight chapters, and begins with a presentation of the master equation used for the calculation of the fundamental thermodynamic functions. The succeeding chapters highlight t

  16. Contributions to statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Mahalanobis, P C

    1965-01-01

    Contributions to Statistics focuses on the processes, methodologies, and approaches involved in statistics. The book is presented to Professor P. C. Mahalanobis on the occasion of his 70th birthday. The selection first offers information on the recovery of ancillary information and combinatorial properties of partially balanced designs and association schemes. Discussions focus on combinatorial applications of the algebra of association matrices, sample size analogy, association matrices and the algebra of association schemes, and conceptual statistical experiments. The book then examines latt

  17. Statistics in a Nutshell

    CERN Document Server

    Boslaugh, Sarah

    2008-01-01

    Need to learn statistics as part of your job, or want some help passing a statistics course? Statistics in a Nutshell is a clear and concise introduction and reference that's perfect for anyone with no previous background in the subject. This book gives you a solid understanding of statistics without being too simple, yet without the numbing complexity of most college texts. You get a firm grasp of the fundamentals and a hands-on understanding of how to apply them before moving on to the more advanced material that follows. Each chapter presents you with easy-to-follow descriptions illustrat

  18. Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2011-01-01

    A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic

  19. Annual Statistical Supplement, 2002

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — The Annual Statistical Supplement, 2002 includes the most comprehensive data available on the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income programs. More than...

  20. Annual Statistical Supplement, 2010

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — The Annual Statistical Supplement, 2010 includes the most comprehensive data available on the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income programs. More than...

  1. Annual Statistical Supplement, 2007

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — The Annual Statistical Supplement, 2007 includes the most comprehensive data available on the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income programs. More than...

  2. Annual Statistical Supplement, 2001

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — The Annual Statistical Supplement, 2001 includes the most comprehensive data available on the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income programs. More than...

  3. Annual Statistical Supplement, 2016

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — The Annual Statistical Supplement, 2016 includes the most comprehensive data available on the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income programs. More than...

  4. Annual Statistical Supplement, 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — The Annual Statistical Supplement, 2011 includes the most comprehensive data available on the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income programs. More than...

  5. Annual Statistical Supplement, 2005

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — The Annual Statistical Supplement, 2005 includes the most comprehensive data available on the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income programs. More than...

  6. Annual Statistical Supplement, 2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — The Annual Statistical Supplement, 2015 includes the most comprehensive data available on the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income programs. More than...

  7. Annual Statistical Supplement, 2003

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — The Annual Statistical Supplement, 2003 includes the most comprehensive data available on the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income programs. More than...

  8. Annual Statistical Supplement, 2017

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — The Annual Statistical Supplement, 2017 includes the most comprehensive data available on the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income programs. More than...

  9. Annual Statistical Supplement, 2008

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — The Annual Statistical Supplement, 2008 includes the most comprehensive data available on the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income programs. More than...

  10. Annual Statistical Supplement, 2014

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — The Annual Statistical Supplement, 2014 includes the most comprehensive data available on the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income programs. More than...

  11. Annual Statistical Supplement, 2004

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — The Annual Statistical Supplement, 2004 includes the most comprehensive data available on the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income programs. More than...

  12. Annual Statistical Supplement, 2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — The Annual Statistical Supplement, 2000 includes the most comprehensive data available on the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income programs. More than...

  13. Annual Statistical Supplement, 2009

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — The Annual Statistical Supplement, 2009 includes the most comprehensive data available on the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income programs. More than...

  14. Annual Statistical Supplement, 2006

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — The Annual Statistical Supplement, 2006 includes the most comprehensive data available on the Social Security and Supplemental Security Income programs. More than...

  15. Principles of statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bulmer, M G

    1979-01-01

    There are many textbooks which describe current methods of statistical analysis, while neglecting related theory. There are equally many advanced textbooks which delve into the far reaches of statistical theory, while bypassing practical applications. But between these two approaches is an unfilled gap, in which theory and practice merge at an intermediate level. Professor M. G. Bulmer's Principles of Statistics, originally published in 1965, was created to fill that need. The new, corrected Dover edition of Principles of Statistics makes this invaluable mid-level text available once again fo

  16. 100 statistical tests

    CERN Document Server

    Kanji, Gopal K

    2006-01-01

    This expanded and updated Third Edition of Gopal K. Kanji's best-selling resource on statistical tests covers all the most commonly used tests with information on how to calculate and interpret results with simple datasets. Each entry begins with a short summary statement about the test's purpose, and contains details of the test objective, the limitations (or assumptions) involved, a brief outline of the method, a worked example, and the numerical calculation. 100 Statistical Tests, Third Edition is the one indispensable guide for users of statistical materials and consumers of statistical information at all levels and across all disciplines.

  17. Statistical distribution sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, E. S.

    1975-01-01

    Determining the distribution of statistics by sampling was investigated. Characteristic functions, the quadratic regression problem, and the differential equations for the characteristic functions are analyzed.

  18. The Detection and Correction of Bias in Student Ratings of Instruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haladyna, Thomas; Hess, Robert K.

    1994-01-01

    A Rasch model was used to detect and correct bias in Likert rating scales used to assess student perceptions of college teaching, using a database of ratings. Statistical corrections were significant, supporting the model's potential utility. Recommendations are made for a theoretical rationale and further research on the model. (Author/MSE)

  19. Effect of Belief Bias on the Development of Undergraduate Students' Reasoning about Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Jennifer K.

    2009-01-01

    Psychologists have discovered a phenomenon called "Belief Bias" in which subjects rate the strength of arguments based on the believability of the conclusions. This paper reports the results of a small qualitative pilot study of undergraduate students who had previously taken an algebra-based introduction to statistics class. The subjects in this…

  20. Spatial Statistical Data Fusion (SSDF)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braverman, Amy J.; Nguyen, Hai M.; Cressie, Noel

    2013-01-01

    As remote sensing for scientific purposes has transitioned from an experimental technology to an operational one, the selection of instruments has become more coordinated, so that the scientific community can exploit complementary measurements. However, tech nological and scientific heterogeneity across devices means that the statistical characteristics of the data they collect are different. The challenge addressed here is how to combine heterogeneous remote sensing data sets in a way that yields optimal statistical estimates of the underlying geophysical field, and provides rigorous uncertainty measures for those estimates. Different remote sensing data sets may have different spatial resolutions, different measurement error biases and variances, and other disparate characteristics. A state-of-the-art spatial statistical model was used to relate the true, but not directly observed, geophysical field to noisy, spatial aggregates observed by remote sensing instruments. The spatial covariances of the true field and the covariances of the true field with the observations were modeled. The observations are spatial averages of the true field values, over pixels, with different measurement noise superimposed. A kriging framework is used to infer optimal (minimum mean squared error and unbiased) estimates of the true field at point locations from pixel-level, noisy observations. A key feature of the spatial statistical model is the spatial mixed effects model that underlies it. The approach models the spatial covariance function of the underlying field using linear combinations of basis functions of fixed size. Approaches based on kriging require the inversion of very large spatial covariance matrices, and this is usually done by making simplifying assumptions about spatial covariance structure that simply do not hold for geophysical variables. In contrast, this method does not require these assumptions, and is also computationally much faster. This method is

  1. Visualizing Statistical Mix Effects and Simpson's Paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Zan; Wattenberg, Martin

    2014-12-01

    We discuss how "mix effects" can surprise users of visualizations and potentially lead them to incorrect conclusions. This statistical issue (also known as "omitted variable bias" or, in extreme cases, as "Simpson's paradox") is widespread and can affect any visualization in which the quantity of interest is an aggregated value such as a weighted sum or average. Our first contribution is to document how mix effects can be a serious issue for visualizations, and we analyze how mix effects can cause problems in a variety of popular visualization techniques, from bar charts to treemaps. Our second contribution is a new technique, the "comet chart," that is meant to ameliorate some of these issues.

  2. Students' gender bias in teaching evaluations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narissra Punyanunt-Carter

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study was to investigate if there is gender bias in student evaluations. Researchers administered a modified version of the teacher evaluation forms to 58 students (male=30; female=28 in a basic introductory communications class. Half the class was instructed to fill out the survey about a male professor, and the other half a female professor. Researchers broke down the evaluation results question by question in order to give a detailed account of the findings. Results revealed that there is certainly some gender bias at work when students evaluate their instructors. It was also found that gender bias does not significantly affect the evaluations. The results align with other findings in the available literature, which point to some sort of pattern regarding gender bias in evaluations, but it still seems to be inconsequential.  DOI: 10.18870/hlrc.v5i3.234

  3. Cognitive bias in symptomatic and recovered agoraphobics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoler, L S; McNally, R J

    1991-01-01

    Symptomatic agoraphobics, recovered agoraphobics, and normal control subjects completed a series of sentence stems that had either ambiguous or unambiguous meanings, and had either a potentially threatening or a nonthreatening connotation. The written completions made by subjects to these stems were classified as indicating either a biased (i.e. threat-related) or unbiased interpretation of the meaning of the stem, and if a biased interpretation was made, whether the subject indicated efforts at adaptive coping with the perceived threat. Results indicated that symptomatic agoraphobics exhibited strong biases for interpreting information as threatening, relative to normal control subjects. Moreover, recovered agoraphobics resembled symptomatic agoraphobics more than normal control subjects, thus indicating that cognitive biases may persist following cessation of panic attacks and reductions in avoidance behavior. However, recovered agoraphobics also exhibited tendencies to cope adaptively with perceived threats whereas symptomatic agoraphobics did not.

  4. Accounting for Unobservable Exposure Time Bias Wh...

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Accounting for Unobservable Exposure Time Bias When Using Medicare Prescription Drug Data Unobservable exposure time is common among Medicare Part D beneficiaries,...

  5. Exchange bias studied with polarized neutron reflectivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velthuis, S. G. E. te

    2000-01-01

    The role of Polarized Neutron Reflectivity (PNR) for studying natural and synthetic exchange biased systems is illustrated. For a partially oxidized thin film of Co, cycling of the magnetic field causes a considerable reduction of the bias, which the onset of diffuse neutron scattering shows to be due to the loosening of the ferromagnetic domains. On the other hand, PNR measurements of a model exchange bias junction consisting of an n-layered Fe/Cr antiferromagnetic (AF) superlattice coupled with an m-layered Fe/Cr ferromagnetic (F) superlattice confirm the predicted collinear magnetization in the two superlattices. The two magnetized states of the F (along or opposite to the bias field) differ only in the relative orientation of the F and adjacent AF layer. The possibility of reading clearly the magnetic state at the interface pinpoints the commanding role that PNR is having in solving this intriguing problem

  6. Critical Views of 8th Grade Students toward Statistical Data in Newspaper Articles: Analysis in Light of Statistical Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guler, Mustafa; Gursoy, Kadir; Guven, Bulent

    2016-01-01

    Understanding and interpreting biased data, decision-making in accordance with the data, and critically evaluating situations involving data are among the fundamental skills necessary in the modern world. To develop these required skills, emphasis on statistical literacy in school mathematics has been gradually increased in recent years. The…

  7. Fixed points of occasionally weakly biased mappings

    OpenAIRE

    Y. Mahendra Singh, M. R. Singh

    2012-01-01

    Common fixed point results due to Pant et al. [Pant et al., Weak reciprocal continuity and fixed point theorems, Ann Univ Ferrara, 57(1), 181-190 (2011)] are extended to a class of non commuting operators called occasionally weakly biased pair[ N. Hussain, M. A. Khamsi A. Latif, Commonfixed points for JH-operators and occasionally weakly biased pairs under relaxed conditions, Nonlinear Analysis, 74, 2133-2140 (2011)]. We also provideillustrative examples to justify the improvements. Abstract....

  8. The Local Bias of Individual Investors

    OpenAIRE

    Ning Zhu

    2002-01-01

    This study investigates individual investors' bias towards nearby companies. Using data from a large U.S. discount brokerage, we find that individual investors tend to invest in companies closer to them relative to the market portfolio. Unlike Coval and Moskowitz's (1999) findings on institutional investors, however, we find that advantageous information cannot explain individual investors' local bias. Accounting numbers and information asymmetry matter less to individual investors' local bia...

  9. GENDER DIFFERENCES AND BIASES IN THE WORKPLACE

    OpenAIRE

    Shruti Srivastava*1 & Dr. Shweta S. Kulshrestha2

    2018-01-01

    Gender equality in the workplace has been a major concern for almost all the organizations and countries. Even in most developed countries we cannot find complete gender equality in true sense. This paper aims to discuss whether there is gender biasness in organizations or not? Gender biasness is considered as a major constraint towards the development process in any of the country and thus we have made an attempt to determine the root causes for gender gap that persists in our society. A...

  10. Systematic biases in human heading estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi F Cuturi

    Full Text Available Heading estimation is vital to everyday navigation and locomotion. Despite extensive behavioral and physiological research on both visual and vestibular heading estimation over more than two decades, the accuracy of heading estimation has not yet been systematically evaluated. Therefore human visual and vestibular heading estimation was assessed in the horizontal plane using a motion platform and stereo visual display. Heading angle was overestimated during forward movements and underestimated during backward movements in response to both visual and vestibular stimuli, indicating an overall multimodal bias toward lateral directions. Lateral biases are consistent with the overrepresentation of lateral preferred directions observed in neural populations that carry visual and vestibular heading information, including MSTd and otolith afferent populations. Due to this overrepresentation, population vector decoding yields patterns of bias remarkably similar to those observed behaviorally. Lateral biases are inconsistent with standard bayesian accounts which predict that estimates should be biased toward the most common straight forward heading direction. Nevertheless, lateral biases may be functionally relevant. They effectively constitute a perceptual scale expansion around straight ahead which could allow for more precise estimation and provide a high gain feedback signal to facilitate maintenance of straight-forward heading during everyday navigation and locomotion.

  11. Domain wall engineering through exchange bias

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albisetti, E.; Petti, D.

    2016-01-01

    The control of the structure and position of magnetic domain walls is at the basis of the development of different magnetic devices and architectures. Several nanofabrication techniques have been proposed to geometrically confine and shape domain wall structures; however, a fine tuning of the position and micromagnetic configuration is hardly achieved, especially in continuous films. This work shows that, by controlling the unidirectional anisotropy of a continuous ferromagnetic film through exchange bias, domain walls whose spin arrangement is generally not favored by dipolar and exchange interactions can be created. Micromagnetic simulations reveal that the domain wall width, position and profile can be tuned by establishing an abrupt change in the direction and magnitude of the exchange bias field set in the system. - Highlights: • Micromagnetic simulations study domain walls in exchange biased thin films. • Novel domain wall configurations can be stabilized via exchange bias. • Domain walls nucleate at the boundary of regions with different exchange bias. • Domain wall width and spin profile are controlled by tuning the exchange bias.

  12. Fermi–Dirac Statistics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    Pauli exclusion principle, Fermi–. Dirac statistics, identical and in- distinguishable particles, Fermi gas. Fermi–Dirac Statistics. Derivation and Consequences. S Chaturvedi and Shyamal Biswas. (left) Subhash Chaturvedi is at University of. Hyderabad. His current research interests include phase space descriptions.

  13. Generalized interpolative quantum statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramanathan, R.

    1992-01-01

    A generalized interpolative quantum statistics is presented by conjecturing a certain reordering of phase space due to the presence of possible exotic objects other than bosons and fermions. Such an interpolation achieved through a Bose-counting strategy predicts the existence of an infinite quantum Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics akin to the one discovered by Greenberg recently

  14. Handbook of Spatial Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Gelfand, Alan E

    2010-01-01

    Offers an introduction detailing the evolution of the field of spatial statistics. This title focuses on the three main branches of spatial statistics: continuous spatial variation (point referenced data); discrete spatial variation, including lattice and areal unit data; and, spatial point patterns.

  15. Statistics 101 for Radiologists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anvari, Arash; Halpern, Elkan F; Samir, Anthony E

    2015-10-01

    Diagnostic tests have wide clinical applications, including screening, diagnosis, measuring treatment effect, and determining prognosis. Interpreting diagnostic test results requires an understanding of key statistical concepts used to evaluate test efficacy. This review explains descriptive statistics and discusses probability, including mutually exclusive and independent events and conditional probability. In the inferential statistics section, a statistical perspective on study design is provided, together with an explanation of how to select appropriate statistical tests. Key concepts in recruiting study samples are discussed, including representativeness and random sampling. Variable types are defined, including predictor, outcome, and covariate variables, and the relationship of these variables to one another. In the hypothesis testing section, we explain how to determine if observed differences between groups are likely to be due to chance. We explain type I and II errors, statistical significance, and study power, followed by an explanation of effect sizes and how confidence intervals can be used to generalize observed effect sizes to the larger population. Statistical tests are explained in four categories: t tests and analysis of variance, proportion analysis tests, nonparametric tests, and regression techniques. We discuss sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, receiver operating characteristic analysis, and likelihood ratios. Measures of reliability and agreement, including κ statistics, intraclass correlation coefficients, and Bland-Altman graphs and analysis, are introduced. © RSNA, 2015.

  16. Statistical tables 2003

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    The energy statistical table is a selection of statistical data for energies and countries from 1997 to 2002. It concerns the petroleum, the natural gas, the coal, the electric power, the production, the external market, the consumption per sector, the energy accounting 2002 and graphs on the long-dated forecasting. (A.L.B.)

  17. Bayesian statistical inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno De Finetti

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.

  18. Practical statistics for educators

    CERN Document Server

    Ravid, Ruth

    2014-01-01

    Practical Statistics for Educators, Fifth Edition, is a clear and easy-to-follow text written specifically for education students in introductory statistics courses and in action research courses. It is also a valuable resource and guidebook for educational practitioners who wish to study their own settings.

  19. Thiele. Pioneer in statistics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauritzen, Steffen Lilholt

    This book studies the brilliant Danish 19th Century astronomer, T.N. Thiele who made important contributions to statistics, actuarial science, astronomy and mathematics. The most important of these contributions in statistics are translated into English for the first time, and the text includes...

  20. Applied Statistics with SPSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huizingh, Eelko K. R. E.

    2007-01-01

    Accessibly written and easy to use, "Applied Statistics Using SPSS" is an all-in-one self-study guide to SPSS and do-it-yourself guide to statistics. What is unique about Eelko Huizingh's approach is that this book is based around the needs of undergraduate students embarking on their own research project, and its self-help style is designed to…

  1. Cancer Statistics Animator

    Science.gov (United States)

    This tool allows users to animate cancer trends over time by cancer site and cause of death, race, and sex. Provides access to incidence, mortality, and survival. Select the type of statistic, variables, format, and then extract the statistics in a delimited format for further analyses.

  2. Energy statistics yearbook 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The Energy Statistics Yearbook 2002 is a comprehensive collection of international energy statistics prepared by the United Nations Statistics Division. It is the forty-sixth in a series of annual compilations which commenced under the title World Energy Supplies in Selected Years, 1929-1950. It updates the statistical series shown in the previous issue. Supplementary series of monthly and quarterly data on production of energy may be found in the Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. The principal objective of the Yearbook is to provide a global framework of comparable data on long-term trends in the supply of mainly commercial primary and secondary forms of energy. Data for each type of fuel and aggregate data for the total mix of commercial fuels are shown for individual countries and areas and are summarized into regional and world totals. The data are compiled primarily from the annual energy questionnaire distributed by the United Nations Statistics Division and supplemented by official national statistical publications. Where official data are not available or are inconsistent, estimates are made by the Statistics Division based on governmental, professional or commercial materials. Estimates include, but are not limited to, extrapolated data based on partial year information, use of annual trends, trade data based on partner country reports, breakdowns of aggregated data as well as analysis of current energy events and activities

  3. Advances in statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard Stauffer; Nadav Nur

    2005-01-01

    The papers included in the Advances in Statistics section of the Partners in Flight (PIF) 2002 Proceedings represent a small sample of statistical topics of current importance to Partners In Flight research scientists: hierarchical modeling, estimation of detection probabilities, and Bayesian applications. Sauer et al. (this volume) examines a hierarchical model...

  4. Energy statistics yearbook 2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    The Energy Statistics Yearbook 2001 is a comprehensive collection of international energy statistics prepared by the United Nations Statistics Division. It is the forty-fifth in a series of annual compilations which commenced under the title World Energy Supplies in Selected Years, 1929-1950. It updates the statistical series shown in the previous issue. Supplementary series of monthly and quarterly data on production of energy may be found in the Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. The principal objective of the Yearbook is to provide a global framework of comparable data on long-term trends in the supply of mainly commercial primary and secondary forms of energy. Data for each type of fuel and aggregate data for the total mix of commercial fuels are shown for individual countries and areas and are summarized into regional and world totals. The data are compiled primarily from the annual energy questionnaire distributed by the United Nations Statistics Division and supplemented by official national statistical publications. Where official data are not available or are inconsistent, estimates are made by the Statistics Division based on governmental, professional or commercial materials. Estimates include, but are not limited to, extrapolated data based on partial year information, use of annual trends, trade data based on partner country reports, breakdowns of aggregated data as well as analysis of current energy events and activities

  5. Energy statistics yearbook 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The Energy Statistics Yearbook 2000 is a comprehensive collection of international energy statistics prepared by the United Nations Statistics Division. It is the forty-third in a series of annual compilations which commenced under the title World Energy Supplies in Selected Years, 1929-1950. It updates the statistical series shown in the previous issue. Supplementary series of monthly and quarterly data on production of energy may be found in the Monthly Bulletin of Statistics. The principal objective of the Yearbook is to provide a global framework of comparable data on long-term trends in the supply of mainly commercial primary and secondary forms of energy. Data for each type of fuel and aggregate data for the total mix of commercial fuels are shown for individual countries and areas and are summarized into regional and world totals. The data are compiled primarily from the annual energy questionnaire distributed by the United Nations Statistics Division and supplemented by official national statistical publications. Where official data are not available or are inconsistent, estimates are made by the Statistics Division based on governmental, professional or commercial materials. Estimates include, but are not limited to, extrapolated data based on partial year information, use of annual trends, trade data based on partner country reports, breakdowns of aggregated data as well as analysis of current energy events and activities

  6. Temperature dependent anomalous statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Das, A.; Panda, S.

    1991-07-01

    We show that the anomalous statistics which arises in 2 + 1 dimensional Chern-Simons gauge theories can become temperature dependent in the most natural way. We analyze and show that a statistic's changing phase transition can happen in these theories only as T → ∞. (author). 14 refs

  7. Introduction to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2017-01-01

    There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...

  8. Understanding advanced statistical methods

    CERN Document Server

    Westfall, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: Probability, Statistics, and ScienceReality, Nature, Science, and ModelsStatistical Processes: Nature, Design and Measurement, and DataModelsDeterministic ModelsVariabilityParametersPurely Probabilistic Statistical ModelsStatistical Models with Both Deterministic and Probabilistic ComponentsStatistical InferenceGood and Bad ModelsUses of Probability ModelsRandom Variables and Their Probability DistributionsIntroductionTypes of Random Variables: Nominal, Ordinal, and ContinuousDiscrete Probability Distribution FunctionsContinuous Probability Distribution FunctionsSome Calculus-Derivatives and Least SquaresMore Calculus-Integrals and Cumulative Distribution FunctionsProbability Calculation and SimulationIntroductionAnalytic Calculations, Discrete and Continuous CasesSimulation-Based ApproximationGenerating Random NumbersIdentifying DistributionsIntroductionIdentifying Distributions from Theory AloneUsing Data: Estimating Distributions via the HistogramQuantiles: Theoretical and Data-Based Estimate...

  9. Determination and Correction of Persistent Biases in Quantum Annealers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-25

    for all of the qubits. Narrowing of the bias distribution. To show the correctability of the persistent biases , we ran the experiment described above...this is a promising application for bias correction . Importantly, while the J biases determined here are in general smaller than the h biases , numerical...1Scientific RepoRts | 6:18628 | DOI: 10.1038/srep18628 www.nature.com/scientificreports Determination and correction of persistent biases in quantum

  10. Beyond assembly bias: exploring secondary halo biases for cluster-size haloes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Yao-Yuan; Zentner, Andrew R.; Wechsler, Risa H.

    2018-03-01

    Secondary halo bias, commonly known as `assembly bias', is the dependence of halo clustering on a halo property other than mass. This prediction of the Λ Cold Dark Matter cosmology is essential to modelling the galaxy distribution to high precision and interpreting clustering measurements. As the name suggests, different manifestations of secondary halo bias have been thought to originate from halo assembly histories. We show conclusively that this is incorrect for cluster-size haloes. We present an up-to-date summary of secondary halo biases of high-mass haloes due to various halo properties including concentration, spin, several proxies of assembly history, and subhalo properties. While concentration, spin, and the abundance and radial distribution of subhaloes exhibit significant secondary biases, properties that directly quantify halo assembly history do not. In fact, the entire assembly histories of haloes in pairs are nearly identical to those of isolated haloes. In general, a global correlation between two halo properties does not predict whether or not these two properties exhibit similar secondary biases. For example, assembly history and concentration (or subhalo abundance) are correlated for both paired and isolated haloes, but follow slightly different conditional distributions in these two cases. This results in a secondary halo bias due to concentration (or subhalo abundance), despite the lack of assembly bias in the strict sense for cluster-size haloes. Due to this complexity, caution must be exercised in using any one halo property as a proxy to study the secondary bias due to another property.

  11. Statistics at a glance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ector, Hugo

    2010-12-01

    I still remember my first book on statistics: "Elementary statistics with applications in medicine and the biological sciences" by Frederick E. Croxton. For me, it has been the start of pursuing understanding statistics in daily life and in medical practice. It was the first volume in a long row of books. In his introduction, Croxton pretends that"nearly everyone involved in any aspect of medicine needs to have some knowledge of statistics". The reality is that for many clinicians, statistics are limited to a "P statistical methods. They have never had the opportunity to learn concise and clear descriptions of the key features. I have experienced how some authors can describe difficult methods in a well understandable language. Others fail completely. As a teacher, I tell my students that life is impossible without a basic knowledge of statistics. This feeling has resulted in an annual seminar of 90 minutes. This tutorial is the summary of this seminar. It is a summary and a transcription of the best pages I have detected.

  12. Bias correction of satellite precipitation products for flood forecasting application at the Upper Mahanadi River Basin in Eastern India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beria, H.; Nanda, T., Sr.; Chatterjee, C.

    2015-12-01

    High resolution satellite precipitation products such as Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), etc., offer a promising alternative to flood forecasting in data scarce regions. At the current state-of-art, these products cannot be used in the raw form for flood forecasting, even at smaller lead times. In the current study, these precipitation products are bias corrected using statistical techniques, such as additive and multiplicative bias corrections, and wavelet multi-resolution analysis (MRA) with India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded precipitation product,obtained from gauge-based rainfall estimates. Neural network based rainfall-runoff modeling using these bias corrected products provide encouraging results for flood forecasting upto 48 hours lead time. We will present various statistical and graphical interpretations of catchment response to high rainfall events using both the raw and bias corrected precipitation products at different lead times.

  13. Affective Biases in Humans and Animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, E S J; Roiser, J P

    Depression is one of the most common but poorly understood psychiatric conditions. Although drug treatments and psychological therapies are effective in some patients, many do not achieve full remission and some patients receive no apparent benefit. Developing new improved treatments requires a better understanding of the aetiology of symptoms and evaluation of novel therapeutic targets in pre-clinical studies. Recent developments in our understanding of the basic cognitive processes that may contribute to the development of depression and its treatment offer new opportunities for both clinical and pre-clinical research. This chapter discusses the clinical evidence supporting a cognitive neuropsychological model of depression and antidepressant efficacy, and how this information may be usefully translated to pre-clinical investigation. Studies using neuropsychological tests in depressed patients and at risk populations have revealed basic negative emotional biases and disrupted reward and punishment processing, which may also impact on non-affective cognition. These affective biases are sensitive to antidepressant treatments with early onset effects observed, suggesting an important role in recovery. This clinical work into affective biases has also facilitated back-translation to animals and the development of assays to study affective biases in rodents. These animal studies suggest that, similar to humans, rodents in putative negative affective states exhibit negative affective biases on decision-making and memory tasks. Antidepressant treatments also induce positive biases in these rodent tasks, supporting the translational validity of this approach. Although still in the early stages of development and validation, affective biases in depression have the potential to offer new insights into the clinical condition, as well as facilitating the development of more translational approaches for pre-clinical studies.

  14. Pointwise probability reinforcements for robust statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frénay, Benoît; Verleysen, Michel

    2014-02-01

    Statistical inference using machine learning techniques may be difficult with small datasets because of abnormally frequent data (AFDs). AFDs are observations that are much more frequent in the training sample that they should be, with respect to their theoretical probability, and include e.g. outliers. Estimates of parameters tend to be biased towards models which support such data. This paper proposes to introduce pointwise probability reinforcements (PPRs): the probability of each observation is reinforced by a PPR and a regularisation allows controlling the amount of reinforcement which compensates for AFDs. The proposed solution is very generic, since it can be used to robustify any statistical inference method which can be formulated as a likelihood maximisation. Experiments show that PPRs can be easily used to tackle regression, classification and projection: models are freed from the influence of outliers. Moreover, outliers can be filtered manually since an abnormality degree is obtained for each observation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Python for probability, statistics, and machine learning

    CERN Document Server

    Unpingco, José

    2016-01-01

    This book covers the key ideas that link probability, statistics, and machine learning illustrated using Python modules in these areas. The entire text, including all the figures and numerical results, is reproducible using the Python codes and their associated Jupyter/IPython notebooks, which are provided as supplementary downloads. The author develops key intuitions in machine learning by working meaningful examples using multiple analytical methods and Python codes, thereby connecting theoretical concepts to concrete implementations. Modern Python modules like Pandas, Sympy, and Scikit-learn are applied to simulate and visualize important machine learning concepts like the bias/variance trade-off, cross-validation, and regularization. Many abstract mathematical ideas, such as convergence in probability theory, are developed and illustrated with numerical examples. This book is suitable for anyone with an undergraduate-level exposure to probability, statistics, or machine learning and with rudimentary knowl...

  16. Statistical mechanics in JINR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonchev, N.; Shumovskij, A.S.

    1986-01-01

    The history of investigations, conducted at the JINR in the field of statistical mechanics, beginning with the fundamental works by Bogolyubov N.N. on superconductivity microscopic theory is presented. Ideas, introduced in these works and methods developed in them, have largely determined the ways for developing statistical mechanics in the JINR and Hartree-Fock-Bogolyubov variational principle has become an important method of the modern nucleus theory. A brief review of the main achievements, connected with the development of statistical mechanics methods and their application in different fields of physical science is given

  17. The nature of statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Wallis, W Allen

    2014-01-01

    Focusing on everyday applications as well as those of scientific research, this classic of modern statistical methods requires little to no mathematical background. Readers develop basic skills for evaluating and using statistical data. Lively, relevant examples include applications to business, government, social and physical sciences, genetics, medicine, and public health. ""W. Allen Wallis and Harry V. Roberts have made statistics fascinating."" - The New York Times ""The authors have set out with considerable success, to write a text which would be of interest and value to the student who,

  18. AP statistics crash course

    CERN Document Server

    D'Alessio, Michael

    2012-01-01

    AP Statistics Crash Course - Gets You a Higher Advanced Placement Score in Less Time Crash Course is perfect for the time-crunched student, the last-minute studier, or anyone who wants a refresher on the subject. AP Statistics Crash Course gives you: Targeted, Focused Review - Study Only What You Need to Know Crash Course is based on an in-depth analysis of the AP Statistics course description outline and actual Advanced Placement test questions. It covers only the information tested on the exam, so you can make the most of your valuable study time. Our easy-to-read format covers: exploring da

  19. Statistical deception at work

    CERN Document Server

    Mauro, John

    2013-01-01

    Written to reveal statistical deceptions often thrust upon unsuspecting journalists, this book views the use of numbers from a public perspective. Illustrating how the statistical naivete of journalists often nourishes quantitative misinformation, the author's intent is to make journalists more critical appraisers of numerical data so that in reporting them they do not deceive the public. The book frequently uses actual reported examples of misused statistical data reported by mass media and describes how journalists can avoid being taken in by them. Because reports of survey findings seldom g

  20. Statistical Group Comparison

    CERN Document Server

    Liao, Tim Futing

    2011-01-01

    An incomparably useful examination of statistical methods for comparisonThe nature of doing science, be it natural or social, inevitably calls for comparison. Statistical methods are at the heart of such comparison, for they not only help us gain understanding of the world around us but often define how our research is to be carried out. The need to compare between groups is best exemplified by experiments, which have clearly defined statistical methods. However, true experiments are not always possible. What complicates the matter more is a great deal of diversity in factors that are not inde

  1. Statistical Pattern Recognition

    CERN Document Server

    Webb, Andrew R

    2011-01-01

    Statistical pattern recognition relates to the use of statistical techniques for analysing data measurements in order to extract information and make justified decisions.  It is a very active area of study and research, which has seen many advances in recent years. Applications such as data mining, web searching, multimedia data retrieval, face recognition, and cursive handwriting recognition, all require robust and efficient pattern recognition techniques. This third edition provides an introduction to statistical pattern theory and techniques, with material drawn from a wide range of fields,

  2. Mineral statistics yearbook 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    A summary of mineral production in Saskatchewan was compiled and presented as a reference manual. Statistical information on fuel minerals such as crude oil, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas and coal, and of industrial and metallic minerals, such as potash, sodium sulphate, salt and uranium, was provided in all conceivable variety of tables. Production statistics, disposition and value of sales of industrial and metallic minerals were also made available. Statistical data on drilling of oil and gas reservoirs and crown land disposition were also included. figs., tabs

  3. Evolutionary Statistical Procedures

    CERN Document Server

    Baragona, Roberto; Poli, Irene

    2011-01-01

    This proposed text appears to be a good introduction to evolutionary computation for use in applied statistics research. The authors draw from a vast base of knowledge about the current literature in both the design of evolutionary algorithms and statistical techniques. Modern statistical research is on the threshold of solving increasingly complex problems in high dimensions, and the generalization of its methodology to parameters whose estimators do not follow mathematically simple distributions is underway. Many of these challenges involve optimizing functions for which analytic solutions a

  4. Methods of statistical physics

    CERN Document Server

    Akhiezer, Aleksandr I

    1981-01-01

    Methods of Statistical Physics is an exposition of the tools of statistical mechanics, which evaluates the kinetic equations of classical and quantized systems. The book also analyzes the equations of macroscopic physics, such as the equations of hydrodynamics for normal and superfluid liquids and macroscopic electrodynamics. The text gives particular attention to the study of quantum systems. This study begins with a discussion of problems of quantum statistics with a detailed description of the basics of quantum mechanics along with the theory of measurement. An analysis of the asymptotic be

  5. Relational Aggression and Hostile Attribution Biases: Testing Multiple Statistical Methods and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godleski, Stephanie A.; Ostrov, Jamie M.

    2010-01-01

    The present study used both categorical and dimensional approaches to test the association between relational and physical aggression and hostile intent attributions for both relational and instrumental provocation situations using the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development longitudinal Study of Early Child Care and Youth…

  6. Codon Deviation Coefficient: A novel measure for estimating codon usage bias and its statistical significance

    KAUST Repository

    Zhang, Zhang; Li, Jun; Cui, Peng; Ding, Feng; Li, Ang; Townsend, Jeffrey P; Yu, Jun

    2012-01-01

    measurement of CUB is of fundamental importance to making inferences regarding gene function and genome evolution. However, extant measures of CUB have not fully accounted for the quantitative effect of background nucleotide composition and have

  7. Cancer Data and Statistics Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Educational Campaigns Initiatives Stay Informed Cancer Data and Statistics Tools Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Cancer Statistics Tools United States Cancer Statistics: Data Visualizations The ...

  8. Gaussian statistics for palaeomagnetic vectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, J.J.; Constable, C.G.

    2003-01-01

    With the aim of treating the statistics of palaeomagnetic directions and intensities jointly and consistently, we represent the mean and the variance of palaeomagnetic vectors, at a particular site and of a particular polarity, by a probability density function in a Cartesian three-space of orthogonal magnetic-field components consisting of a single (unimoda) non-zero mean, spherically-symmetrical (isotropic) Gaussian function. For palaeomagnetic data of mixed polarities, we consider a bimodal distribution consisting of a pair of such symmetrical Gaussian functions, with equal, but opposite, means and equal variances. For both the Gaussian and bi-Gaussian distributions, and in the spherical three-space of intensity, inclination, and declination, we obtain analytical expressions for the marginal density functions, the cumulative distributions, and the expected values and variances for each spherical coordinate (including the angle with respect to the axis of symmetry of the distributions). The mathematical expressions for the intensity and off-axis angle are closed-form and especially manageable, with the intensity distribution being Rayleigh-Rician. In the limit of small relative vectorial dispersion, the Gaussian (bi-Gaussian) directional distribution approaches a Fisher (Bingham) distribution and the intensity distribution approaches a normal distribution. In the opposite limit of large relative vectorial dispersion, the directional distributions approach a spherically-uniform distribution and the intensity distribution approaches a Maxwell distribution. We quantify biases in estimating the properties of the vector field resulting from the use of simple arithmetic averages, such as estimates of the intensity or the inclination of the mean vector, or the variances of these quantities. With the statistical framework developed here and using the maximum-likelihood method, which gives unbiased estimates in the limit of large data numbers, we demonstrate how to

  9. Gaussian statistics for palaeomagnetic vectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, J. J.; Constable, C. G.

    2003-03-01

    With the aim of treating the statistics of palaeomagnetic directions and intensities jointly and consistently, we represent the mean and the variance of palaeomagnetic vectors, at a particular site and of a particular polarity, by a probability density function in a Cartesian three-space of orthogonal magnetic-field components consisting of a single (unimodal) non-zero mean, spherically-symmetrical (isotropic) Gaussian function. For palaeomagnetic data of mixed polarities, we consider a bimodal distribution consisting of a pair of such symmetrical Gaussian functions, with equal, but opposite, means and equal variances. For both the Gaussian and bi-Gaussian distributions, and in the spherical three-space of intensity, inclination, and declination, we obtain analytical expressions for the marginal density functions, the cumulative distributions, and the expected values and variances for each spherical coordinate (including the angle with respect to the axis of symmetry of the distributions). The mathematical expressions for the intensity and off-axis angle are closed-form and especially manageable, with the intensity distribution being Rayleigh-Rician. In the limit of small relative vectorial dispersion, the Gaussian (bi-Gaussian) directional distribution approaches a Fisher (Bingham) distribution and the intensity distribution approaches a normal distribution. In the opposite limit of large relative vectorial dispersion, the directional distributions approach a spherically-uniform distribution and the intensity distribution approaches a Maxwell distribution. We quantify biases in estimating the properties of the vector field resulting from the use of simple arithmetic averages, such as estimates of the intensity or the inclination of the mean vector, or the variances of these quantities. With the statistical framework developed here and using the maximum-likelihood method, which gives unbiased estimates in the limit of large data numbers, we demonstrate how to

  10. Modeling bias and variation in the stochastic processes of small RNA sequencing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argyropoulos, Christos; Etheridge, Alton; Sakhanenko, Nikita; Galas, David

    2017-06-20

    The use of RNA-seq as the preferred method for the discovery and validation of small RNA biomarkers has been hindered by high quantitative variability and biased sequence counts. In this paper we develop a statistical model for sequence counts that accounts for ligase bias and stochastic variation in sequence counts. This model implies a linear quadratic relation between the mean and variance of sequence counts. Using a large number of sequencing datasets, we demonstrate how one can use the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) distributional regression framework to calculate and apply empirical correction factors for ligase bias. Bias correction could remove more than 40% of the bias for miRNAs. Empirical bias correction factors appear to be nearly constant over at least one and up to four orders of magnitude of total RNA input and independent of sample composition. Using synthetic mixes of known composition, we show that the GAMLSS approach can analyze differential expression with greater accuracy, higher sensitivity and specificity than six existing algorithms (DESeq2, edgeR, EBSeq, limma, DSS, voom) for the analysis of small RNA-seq data. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  11. On the relative independence of thinking biases and cognitive ability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanovich, Keith E; West, Richard F

    2008-04-01

    In 7 different studies, the authors observed that a large number of thinking biases are uncorrelated with cognitive ability. These thinking biases include some of the most classic and well-studied biases in the heuristics and biases literature, including the conjunction effect, framing effects, anchoring effects, outcome bias, base-rate neglect, "less is more" effects, affect biases, omission bias, myside bias, sunk-cost effect, and certainty effects that violate the axioms of expected utility theory. In a further experiment, the authors nonetheless showed that cognitive ability does correlate with the tendency to avoid some rational thinking biases, specifically the tendency to display denominator neglect, probability matching rather than maximizing, belief bias, and matching bias on the 4-card selection task. The authors present a framework for predicting when cognitive ability will and will not correlate with a rational thinking tendency. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

  12. Robust Control Methods for On-Line Statistical Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Capobianco Enrico

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The issue of controlling that data processing in an experiment results not affected by the presence of outliers is relevant for statistical control and learning studies. Learning schemes should thus be tested for their capacity of handling outliers in the observed training set so to achieve reliable estimates with respect to the crucial bias and variance aspects. We describe possible ways of endowing neural networks with statistically robust properties by defining feasible error criteria. It is convenient to cast neural nets in state space representations and apply both Kalman filter and stochastic approximation procedures in order to suggest statistically robustified solutions for on-line learning.

  13. Elements of statistical thermodynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Nash, Leonard K

    2006-01-01

    Encompassing essentially all aspects of statistical mechanics that appear in undergraduate texts, this concise, elementary treatment shows how an atomic-molecular perspective yields new insights into macroscopic thermodynamics. 1974 edition.

  14. VA PTSD Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — National-level, VISN-level, and/or VAMC-level statistics on the numbers and percentages of users of VHA care form the Northeast Program Evaluation Center (NEPEC)....

  15. Statistical nuclear reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hilaire, S.

    2001-01-01

    A review of the statistical model of nuclear reactions is presented. The main relations are described, together with the ingredients necessary to perform practical calculations. In addition, a substantial overview of the width fluctuation correction factor is given. (author)

  16. Plague Maps and Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... and Statistics Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Plague in the United States Plague was first introduced ... them at higher risk. Reported Cases of Human Plague - United States, 1970-2016 Since the mid–20th ...

  17. Statistical Measures of Marksmanship

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johnson, Richard

    2001-01-01

    .... This report describes objective statistical procedures to measure both rifle marksmanship accuracy, the proximity of an array of shots to the center of mass of a target, and marksmanship precision...

  18. Titanic: A Statistical Exploration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takis, Sandra L.

    1999-01-01

    Uses the available data about the Titanic's passengers to interest students in exploring categorical data and the chi-square distribution. Describes activities incorporated into a statistics class and gives additional resources for collecting information about the Titanic. (ASK)

  19. Data and Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... About Us Information For… Media Policy Makers Data & Statistics Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Sickle cell ... 1999 through 2002. This drop coincided with the introduction in 2000 of a vaccine that protects against ...

  20. CDC WONDER: Cancer Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The United States Cancer Statistics (USCS) online databases in WONDER provide cancer incidence and mortality data for the United States for the years since 1999, by...

  1. Probability and Statistical Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2006-01-01

    These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

  2. On quantum statistical inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, O.E.; Gill, R.D.; Jupp, P.E.

    2003-01-01

    Interest in problems of statistical inference connected to measurements of quantum systems has recently increased substantially, in step with dramatic new developments in experimental techniques for studying small quantum systems. Furthermore, developments in the theory of quantum measurements have

  3. CMS Statistics Reference Booklet

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The annual CMS Statistics reference booklet provides a quick reference for summary information about health expenditures and the Medicare and Medicaid health...

  4. Statistical mechanics of superconductivity

    CERN Document Server

    Kita, Takafumi

    2015-01-01

    This book provides a theoretical, step-by-step comprehensive explanation of superconductivity for undergraduate and graduate students who have completed elementary courses on thermodynamics and quantum mechanics. To this end, it adopts the unique approach of starting with the statistical mechanics of quantum ideal gases and successively adding and clarifying elements and techniques indispensible for understanding it. They include the spin-statistics theorem, second quantization, density matrices, the Bloch–De Dominicis theorem, the variational principle in statistical mechanics, attractive interaction, and bound states. Ample examples of their usage are also provided in terms of topics from advanced statistical mechanics such as two-particle correlations of quantum ideal gases, derivation of the Hartree–Fock equations, and Landau’s Fermi-liquid theory, among others. With these preliminaries, the fundamental mean-field equations of superconductivity are derived with maximum mathematical clarity based on ...

  5. Statistics of Extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Davison, Anthony C.; Huser, Raphaë l

    2015-01-01

    Statistics of extremes concerns inference for rare events. Often the events have never yet been observed, and their probabilities must therefore be estimated by extrapolation of tail models fitted to available data. Because data concerning the event

  6. Statistics: a Bayesian perspective

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berry, Donald A

    1996-01-01

    ...: it is the only introductory textbook based on Bayesian ideas, it combines concepts and methods, it presents statistics as a means of integrating data into the significant process, it develops ideas...

  7. Infant Statistical Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saffran, Jenny R.; Kirkham, Natasha Z.

    2017-01-01

    Perception involves making sense of a dynamic, multimodal environment. In the absence of mechanisms capable of exploiting the statistical patterns in the natural world, infants would face an insurmountable computational problem. Infant statistical learning mechanisms facilitate the detection of structure. These abilities allow the infant to compute across elements in their environmental input, extracting patterns for further processing and subsequent learning. In this selective review, we summarize findings that show that statistical learning is both a broad and flexible mechanism (supporting learning from different modalities across many different content areas) and input specific (shifting computations depending on the type of input and goal of learning). We suggest that statistical learning not only provides a framework for studying language development and object knowledge in constrained laboratory settings, but also allows researchers to tackle real-world problems, such as multilingualism, the role of ever-changing learning environments, and differential developmental trajectories. PMID:28793812

  8. Transport statistics 1996

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Shepperson, L

    1997-12-01

    Full Text Available This publication contains transport and related statistics on roads, vehicles, infrastructure, passengers, freight, rail, air, maritime and road traffic, and international comparisons. The information compiled in this publication has been gathered...

  9. Basics of statistical physics

    CERN Document Server

    Müller-Kirsten, Harald J W

    2013-01-01

    Statistics links microscopic and macroscopic phenomena, and requires for this reason a large number of microscopic elements like atoms. The results are values of maximum probability or of averaging. This introduction to statistical physics concentrates on the basic principles, and attempts to explain these in simple terms supplemented by numerous examples. These basic principles include the difference between classical and quantum statistics, a priori probabilities as related to degeneracies, the vital aspect of indistinguishability as compared with distinguishability in classical physics, the differences between conserved and non-conserved elements, the different ways of counting arrangements in the three statistics (Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac, Bose-Einstein), the difference between maximization of the number of arrangements of elements, and averaging in the Darwin-Fowler method. Significant applications to solids, radiation and electrons in metals are treated in separate chapters, as well as Bose-Eins...

  10. Visuanimation in statistics

    KAUST Repository

    Genton, Marc G.; Castruccio, Stefano; Crippa, Paola; Dutta, Subhajit; Huser, Raphaë l; Sun, Ying; Vettori, Sabrina

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores the use of visualization through animations, coined visuanimation, in the field of statistics. In particular, it illustrates the embedding of animations in the paper itself and the storage of larger movies in the online

  11. Playing at Statistical Mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Paul M.; And Others

    1974-01-01

    Discussed are the applications of counting techniques of a sorting game to distributions and concepts in statistical mechanics. Included are the following distributions: Fermi-Dirac, Bose-Einstein, and most probable. (RH)

  12. Illinois travel statistics, 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    The 2008 Illinois Travel Statistics publication is assembled to provide detailed traffic : information to the different users of traffic data. While most users of traffic data at this level : of detail are within the Illinois Department of Transporta...

  13. Illinois travel statistics, 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    The 2009 Illinois Travel Statistics publication is assembled to provide detailed traffic : information to the different users of traffic data. While most users of traffic data at this level : of detail are within the Illinois Department of Transporta...

  14. Cholesterol Facts and Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Managing High Cholesterol Cholesterol-lowering Medicine High Cholesterol Statistics and Maps High Cholesterol Facts High Cholesterol Maps ... Deo R, et al. Heart disease and stroke statistics—2017 update: a report from the American Heart ...

  15. Illinois travel statistics, 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    The 2010 Illinois Travel Statistics publication is assembled to provide detailed traffic : information to the different users of traffic data. While most users of traffic data at this level : of detail are within the Illinois Department of Transporta...

  16. EDI Performance Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This section contains statistical information and reports related to the percentage of electronic transactions being sent to Medicare contractors in the formats...

  17. Information theory and statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Kullback, Solomon

    1968-01-01

    Highly useful text studies logarithmic measures of information and their application to testing statistical hypotheses. Includes numerous worked examples and problems. References. Glossary. Appendix. 1968 2nd, revised edition.

  18. Boating Accident Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...

  19. Medicaid Drug Claims Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Medicaid Drug Claims Statistics CD is a useful tool that conveniently breaks up Medicaid claim counts and separates them by quarter and includes an annual count.

  20. Statistical theory of heat

    CERN Document Server

    Scheck, Florian

    2016-01-01

    Scheck’s textbook starts with a concise introduction to classical thermodynamics, including geometrical aspects. Then a short introduction to probabilities and statistics lays the basis for the statistical interpretation of thermodynamics. Phase transitions, discrete models and the stability of matter are explained in great detail. Thermodynamics has a special role in theoretical physics. Due to the general approach of thermodynamics the field has a bridging function between several areas like the theory of condensed matter, elementary particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology. The classical thermodynamics describes predominantly averaged properties of matter, reaching from few particle systems and state of matter to stellar objects. Statistical Thermodynamics covers the same fields, but explores them in greater depth and unifies classical statistical mechanics with quantum theory of multiple particle systems. The content is presented as two tracks: the fast track for master students, providing the essen...

  1. Record Statistics and Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sibani, Paolo; Jensen, Henrik J.

    2009-01-01

    with independent random increments. The term record dynamics covers the rather new idea that records may, in special situations, have measurable dynamical consequences. The approach applies to the aging dynamics of glasses and other systems with multiple metastable states. The basic idea is that record sizes...... fluctuations of e. g. the energy are able to push the system past some sort of ‘edge of stability’, inducing irreversible configurational changes, whose statistics then closely follows the statistics of record fluctuations....

  2. Introductory statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Nitis

    2014-01-01

    This gracefully organized text reveals the rigorous theory of probability and statistical inference in the style of a tutorial, using worked examples, exercises, figures, tables, and computer simulations to develop and illustrate concepts. Drills and boxed summaries emphasize and reinforce important ideas and special techniques.Beginning with a review of the basic concepts and methods in probability theory, moments, and moment generating functions, the author moves to more intricate topics. Introductory Statistical Inference studies multivariate random variables, exponential families of dist

  3. Statistical mechanics rigorous results

    CERN Document Server

    Ruelle, David

    1999-01-01

    This classic book marks the beginning of an era of vigorous mathematical progress in equilibrium statistical mechanics. Its treatment of the infinite system limit has not been superseded, and the discussion of thermodynamic functions and states remains basic for more recent work. The conceptual foundation provided by the Rigorous Results remains invaluable for the study of the spectacular developments of statistical mechanics in the second half of the 20th century.

  4. Statistical mechanics of anyons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arovas, D.P.

    1985-01-01

    We study the statistical mechanics of a two-dimensional gas of free anyons - particles which interpolate between Bose-Einstein and Fermi-Dirac character. Thermodynamic quantities are discussed in the low-density regime. In particular, the second virial coefficient is evaluated by two different methods and is found to exhibit a simple, periodic, but nonanalytic behavior as a function of the statistics determining parameter. (orig.)

  5. Fundamentals of statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Mulholland, Henry

    1968-01-01

    Fundamentals of Statistics covers topics on the introduction, fundamentals, and science of statistics. The book discusses the collection, organization and representation of numerical data; elementary probability; the binomial Poisson distributions; and the measures of central tendency. The text describes measures of dispersion for measuring the spread of a distribution; continuous distributions for measuring on a continuous scale; the properties and use of normal distribution; and tests involving the normal or student's 't' distributions. The use of control charts for sample means; the ranges

  6. Business statistics I essentials

    CERN Document Server

    Clark, Louise

    2014-01-01

    REA's Essentials provide quick and easy access to critical information in a variety of different fields, ranging from the most basic to the most advanced. As its name implies, these concise, comprehensive study guides summarize the essentials of the field covered. Essentials are helpful when preparing for exams, doing homework and will remain a lasting reference source for students, teachers, and professionals. Business Statistics I includes descriptive statistics, introduction to probability, probability distributions, sampling and sampling distributions, interval estimation, and hypothesis t

  7. Non-Gaussian halo assembly bias

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reid, Beth A.; Verde, Licia; Dolag, Klaus; Matarrese, Sabino; Moscardini, Lauro

    2010-01-01

    The strong dependence of the large-scale dark matter halo bias on the (local) non-Gaussianity parameter, f NL , offers a promising avenue towards constraining primordial non-Gaussianity with large-scale structure surveys. In this paper, we present the first detection of the dependence of the non-Gaussian halo bias on halo formation history using N-body simulations. We also present an analytic derivation of the expected signal based on the extended Press-Schechter formalism. In excellent agreement with our analytic prediction, we find that the halo formation history-dependent contribution to the non-Gaussian halo bias (which we call non-Gaussian halo assembly bias) can be factorized in a form approximately independent of redshift and halo mass. The correction to the non-Gaussian halo bias due to the halo formation history can be as large as 100%, with a suppression of the signal for recently formed halos and enhancement for old halos. This could in principle be a problem for realistic galaxy surveys if observational selection effects were to pick galaxies occupying only recently formed halos. Current semi-analytic galaxy formation models, for example, imply an enhancement in the expected signal of ∼ 23% and ∼ 48% for galaxies at z = 1 selected by stellar mass and star formation rate, respectively

  8. A model independent safeguard against background mismodeling for statistical inference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Priel, Nadav; Landsman, Hagar; Manfredini, Alessandro; Budnik, Ranny [Department of Particle Physics and Astrophysics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Herzl St. 234, Rehovot (Israel); Rauch, Ludwig, E-mail: nadav.priel@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: rauch@mpi-hd.mpg.de, E-mail: hagar.landsman@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: alessandro.manfredini@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: ran.budnik@weizmann.ac.il [Teilchen- und Astroteilchenphysik, Max-Planck-Institut für Kernphysik, Saupfercheckweg 1, 69117 Heidelberg (Germany)

    2017-05-01

    We propose a safeguard procedure for statistical inference that provides universal protection against mismodeling of the background. The method quantifies and incorporates the signal-like residuals of the background model into the likelihood function, using information available in a calibration dataset. This prevents possible false discovery claims that may arise through unknown mismodeling, and corrects the bias in limit setting created by overestimated or underestimated background. We demonstrate how the method removes the bias created by an incomplete background model using three realistic case studies.

  9. Breakthroughs in statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Johnson, Norman

    This is author-approved bcc: This is the third volume of a collection of seminal papers in the statistical sciences written during the past 110 years. These papers have each had an outstanding influence on the development of statistical theory and practice over the last century. Each paper is preceded by an introduction written by an authority in the field providing background information and assessing its influence. Volume III concerntrates on articles from the 1980's while including some earlier articles not included in Volume I and II. Samuel Kotz is Professor of Statistics in the College of Business and Management at the University of Maryland. Norman L. Johnson is Professor Emeritus of Statistics at the University of North Carolina. Also available: Breakthroughs in Statistics Volume I: Foundations and Basic Theory Samuel Kotz and Norman L. Johnson, Editors 1993. 631 pp. Softcover. ISBN 0-387-94037-5 Breakthroughs in Statistics Volume II: Methodology and Distribution Samuel Kotz and Norman L. Johnson, Edi...

  10. Systematic Biases in Parameter Estimation of Binary Black-Hole Mergers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Littenberg, Tyson B.; Baker, John G.; Buonanno, Alessandra; Kelly, Bernard J.

    2012-01-01

    Parameter estimation of binary-black-hole merger events in gravitational-wave data relies on matched filtering techniques, which, in turn, depend on accurate model waveforms. Here we characterize the systematic biases introduced in measuring astrophysical parameters of binary black holes by applying the currently most accurate effective-one-body templates to simulated data containing non-spinning numerical-relativity waveforms. For advanced ground-based detectors, we find that the systematic biases are well within the statistical error for realistic signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). These biases grow to be comparable to the statistical errors at high signal-to-noise ratios for ground-based instruments (SNR approximately 50) but never dominate the error budget. At the much larger signal-to-noise ratios expected for space-based detectors, these biases will become large compared to the statistical errors but are small enough (at most a few percent in the black-hole masses) that we expect they should not affect broad astrophysical conclusions that may be drawn from the data.

  11. Illustrating, Quantifying, and Correcting for Bias in Post-hoc Analysis of Gene-Based Rare Variant Tests of Association

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinde, Kelsey E.; Arbet, Jaron; Green, Alden; O'Connell, Michael; Valcarcel, Alessandra; Westra, Jason; Tintle, Nathan

    2017-01-01

    To date, gene-based rare variant testing approaches have focused on aggregating information across sets of variants to maximize statistical power in identifying genes showing significant association with diseases. Beyond identifying genes that are associated with diseases, the identification of causal variant(s) in those genes and estimation of their effect is crucial for planning replication studies and characterizing the genetic architecture of the locus. However, we illustrate that straightforward single-marker association statistics can suffer from substantial bias introduced by conditioning on gene-based test significance, due to the phenomenon often referred to as “winner's curse.” We illustrate the ramifications of this bias on variant effect size estimation and variant prioritization/ranking approaches, outline parameters of genetic architecture that affect this bias, and propose a bootstrap resampling method to correct for this bias. We find that our correction method significantly reduces the bias due to winner's curse (average two-fold decrease in bias, p bias and improve inference in post-hoc analysis of gene-based tests under a wide variety of genetic architectures. PMID:28959274

  12. Bias and misleading concepts in an Arnica research study. Comments to improve experimental Homeopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvatore Chirumbolo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Basic experimental models in Homeopathy are of major interest because they could get insightful data about the ability of high dilutions to work in a biological system. Due to the extreme difficulty in the highlighting any possible effect and trusting its reliability, methods should be particularly stringent and highly standardized. Confounders, handling process, pre-analytical errors, misleading statistics and misinterpretations may lead to experimental biases. This article tries to elucidate those factors causing bias, taking into account some recent reported evidence in the field.

  13. Natural-gas futures: Bias, predictive performance, and the theory of storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Modjtahedi, Bagher [California Univ., Davis, CA (United States); California Franchise Tax Board, CA (United States); Movassagh, Nahid [California Energy Commission, MS22, Sacramento, CA (United States)

    2005-07-01

    This study reports several empirical findings concerning natural gas futures prices. First, spot and futures prices are non-stationary and the observed trends are due to positive drifts in the random-walk components of the prices rather than possible deterministic time trends. Second, market forecast errors are stationary. Third, futures are less than expected future spot prices so that futures are backdated. Fourth, the bias in the futures prices is time varying. Fifth, futures have statistically significant market-timing ability, despite the bias in the magnitude forecasts. Finally, the data lends partial support to the cost-of-carry theory of the basis determination. (Author)

  14. Natural-gas futures: Bias, predictive performance, and the theory of storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Modjtahedi, Bagher; Movassagh, Nahid

    2005-01-01

    This study reports several empirical findings concerning natural gas futures prices. First, spot and futures prices are non-stationary and the observed trends are due to positive drifts in the random-walk components of the prices rather than possible deterministic time trends. Second, market forecast errors are stationary. Third, futures are less than expected future spot prices so that futures are backdated. Fourth, the bias in the futures prices is time varying. Fifth, futures have statistically significant market-timing ability, despite the bias in the magnitude forecasts. Finally, the data lends partial support to the cost-of-carry theory of the basis determination. (Author)

  15. Bias-correction and Spatial Disaggregation for Climate Change Impact Assessments at a basin scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyunt, Cho; Koike, Toshio; Yamamoto, Akio; Nemoto, Toshihoro; Kitsuregawa, Masaru

    2013-04-01

    Basin-scale climate change impact studies mainly rely on general circulation models (GCMs) comprising the related emission scenarios. Realistic and reliable data from GCM is crucial for national scale or basin scale impact and vulnerability assessments to build safety society under climate change. However, GCM fail to simulate regional climate features due to the imprecise parameterization schemes in atmospheric physics and coarse resolution scale. This study describes how to exclude some unsatisfactory GCMs with respect to focused basin, how to minimize the biases of GCM precipitation through statistical bias correction and how to cover spatial disaggregation scheme, a kind of downscaling, within in a basin. GCMs rejection is based on the regional climate features of seasonal evolution as a bench mark and mainly depends on spatial correlation and root mean square error of precipitation and atmospheric variables over the target region. Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Japanese 25-uear Reanalysis Project (JRA-25) are specified as references in figuring spatial pattern and error of GCM. Statistical bias-correction scheme comprises improvements of three main flaws of GCM precipitation such as low intensity drizzled rain days with no dry day, underestimation of heavy rainfall and inter-annual variability of local climate. Biases of heavy rainfall are conducted by generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitting over a peak over threshold series. Frequency of rain day error is fixed by rank order statistics and seasonal variation problem is solved by using a gamma distribution fitting in each month against insi-tu stations vs. corresponding GCM grids. By implementing the proposed bias-correction technique to all insi-tu stations and their respective GCM grid, an easy and effective downscaling process for impact studies at the basin scale is accomplished. The proposed method have been examined its applicability to some of the basins in various climate

  16. Hindsight bias and outcome bias in the social construction of medical negligence: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugh, Thomas B; Dekker, Sidney W A

    2009-05-01

    Medical negligence has been the subject of much public debate in recent decades. Although the steep increase in the frequency and size of claims against doctors at the end of the last century appears to have plateaued, in Australia at least, medical indemnity costs and consequences are still a matter of concern for doctors, medical defence organisations and governments in most developed countries. Imprecision in the legal definition of negligence opens the possibility that judgments of this issue at several levels may be subject to hindsight and outcome bias. Hindsight bias relates to the probability of an adverse event perceived by a retrospective observer ("I would have known it was going to happen"), while outcome bias is a largely subconscious cognitive distortion produced by the observer's knowledge of the adverse outcome. This review examines the relevant legal, medical, psychological and sociological literature on the operation of these pervasive and universal biases in the retrospective evaluation of adverse events. A finding of medical negligence is essentially an after-the-event social construction and is invariably affected by hindsight bias and knowledge of the adverse outcome. Such biases obviously pose a threat to the fairness of judgments. A number of debiasing strategies have been suggested but are relatively ineffective because of the universality and strength of these biases and the inherent difficulty of concealing from expert witnesses knowledge of the outcome. Education about the effect of the biases is therefore important for lawyers, medical expert witnesses and the judiciary.

  17. Attention bias modification training under working memory load increases the magnitude of change in attentional bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Patrick J F; Branson, Sonya; Chen, Nigel T M; Van Bockstaele, Bram; Salemink, Elske; MacLeod, Colin; Notebaert, Lies

    2017-12-01

    Attention bias modification (ABM) procedures have shown promise as a therapeutic intervention, however current ABM procedures have proven inconsistent in their ability to reliably achieve the requisite change in attentional bias needed to produce emotional benefits. This highlights the need to better understand the precise task conditions that facilitate the intended change in attention bias in order to realise the therapeutic potential of ABM procedures. Based on the observation that change in attentional bias occurs largely outside conscious awareness, the aim of the current study was to determine if an ABM procedure delivered under conditions likely to preclude explicit awareness of the experimental contingency, via the addition of a working memory load, would contribute to greater change in attentional bias. Bias change was assessed among 122 participants in response to one of four ABM tasks given by the two experimental factors of ABM training procedure delivered either with or without working memory load, and training direction of either attend-negative or avoid-negative. Findings revealed that avoid-negative ABM procedure under working memory load resulted in significantly greater reductions in attentional bias compared to the equivalent no-load condition. The current findings will require replication with clinical samples to determine the utility of the current task for achieving emotional benefits. These present findings are consistent with the position that the addition of a working memory load may facilitate change in attentional bias in response to an ABM training procedure. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Research bias in judgement bias studies : a systematic review of valuation judgement literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vincent Gruis; Pim Klamer; Cok Bakker

    2017-01-01

    Valuation judgement bias has been a research topic for several years due to its proclaimed effect on valuation accuracy. However, little is known on the emphasis of literature on judgement bias, with regard to, for instance, research methodologies, research context and robustness of research

  19. Research bias in judgement bias studies : A systematic review of valuation judgement literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klamer, Pim; Bakker, C.; Gruis, Vincent

    2017-01-01

    Valuation judgement bias has been a research topic for several years due to its proclaimed effect on valuation accuracy. However, little is known on the emphasis of literature on judgement bias, with regard to, for instance, research methodologies, research context and robustness of research

  20. Placebo effect studies are susceptible to response bias and to other types of biases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hróbjartsson, Asbjørn; Kaptchuk, Ted J; Miller, Franklin G

    2011-01-01

    Investigations of the effect of placebo are often challenging to conduct and interpret. The history of placebo shows that assessment of its clinical significance has a real potential to be biased. We analyze and discuss typical types of bias in studies on placebo....

  1. Toward a synthesis of cognitive biases: how noisy information processing can bias human decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbert, Martin

    2012-03-01

    A single coherent framework is proposed to synthesize long-standing research on 8 seemingly unrelated cognitive decision-making biases. During the past 6 decades, hundreds of empirical studies have resulted in a variety of rules of thumb that specify how humans systematically deviate from what is normatively expected from their decisions. Several complementary generative mechanisms have been proposed to explain those cognitive biases. Here it is suggested that (at least) 8 of these empirically detected decision-making biases can be produced by simply assuming noisy deviations in the memory-based information processes that convert objective evidence (observations) into subjective estimates (decisions). An integrative framework is presented to show how similar noise-based mechanisms can lead to conservatism, the Bayesian likelihood bias, illusory correlations, biased self-other placement, subadditivity, exaggerated expectation, the confidence bias, and the hard-easy effect. Analytical tools from information theory are used to explore the nature and limitations that characterize such information processes for binary and multiary decision-making exercises. The ensuing synthesis offers formal mathematical definitions of the biases and their underlying generative mechanism, which permits a consolidated analysis of how they are related. This synthesis contributes to the larger goal of creating a coherent picture that explains the relations among the myriad of seemingly unrelated biases and their potential psychological generative mechanisms. Limitations and research questions are discussed.

  2. A Comparison of attentional biases and memory biases in social phobia and major depression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rinck, M.; Becker, E.S.

    2005-01-01

    Cognitive processes play an important role in the etiology and maintenance of anxiety and depression. Current theories differ, however, in their predictions regarding the occurrence of attentional biases and memory biases in depression and anxiety. To allow for a systematic comparison of disorders

  3. Halo assembly bias and the tidal anisotropy of the local halo environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paranjape, Aseem; Hahn, Oliver; Sheth, Ravi K.

    2018-05-01

    We study the role of the local tidal environment in determining the assembly bias of dark matter haloes. Previous results suggest that the anisotropy of a halo's environment (i.e. whether it lies in a filament or in a more isotropic region) can play a significant role in determining the eventual mass and age of the halo. We statistically isolate this effect, using correlations between the large-scale and small-scale environments of simulated haloes at z = 0 with masses between 1011.6 ≲ (m/h-1 M⊙) ≲ 1014.9. We probe the large-scale environment, using a novel halo-by-halo estimator of linear bias. For the small-scale environment, we identify a variable αR that captures the tidal anisotropy in a region of radius R = 4R200b around the halo and correlates strongly with halo bias at fixed mass. Segregating haloes by αR reveals two distinct populations. Haloes in highly isotropic local environments (αR ≲ 0.2) behave as expected from the simplest, spherically averaged analytical models of structure formation, showing a negative correlation between their concentration and large-scale bias at all masses. In contrast, haloes in anisotropic, filament-like environments (αR ≳ 0.5) tend to show a positive correlation between bias and concentration at any mass. Our multiscale analysis cleanly demonstrates how the overall assembly bias trend across halo mass emerges as an average over these different halo populations, and provides valuable insights towards building analytical models that correctly incorporate assembly bias. We also discuss potential implications for the nature and detectability of galaxy assembly bias.

  4. UN Data- Environmental Statistics: Waste

    Data.gov (United States)

    World Wide Human Geography Data Working Group — The Environment Statistics Database contains selected water and waste statistics by country. Statistics on water and waste are based on official statistics supplied...

  5. UN Data: Environment Statistics: Waste

    Data.gov (United States)

    World Wide Human Geography Data Working Group — The Environment Statistics Database contains selected water and waste statistics by country. Statistics on water and waste are based on official statistics supplied...

  6. Recognition bias and the physical attractiveness stereotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohner, Jean-Christophe; Rasmussen, Anders

    2012-06-01

    Previous studies have found a recognition bias for information consistent with the physical attractiveness stereotype (PAS), in which participants believe that they remember that attractive individuals have positive qualities and that unattractive individuals have negative qualities, regardless of what information actually occurred. The purpose of this research was to examine whether recognition bias for PAS congruent information is replicable and invariant across a variety of conditions (i.e. generalizable). The effects of nine different moderator variables were examined in two experiments. With a few exceptions, the effect of PAS congruence on recognition bias was independent of the moderator variables. The results suggest that the tendency to believe that one remembers information consistent with the physical attractiveness stereotype is a robust phenomenon. © 2012 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology © 2012 The Scandinavian Psychological Associations.

  7. Systematic approach to establishing criticality biases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, S.L.

    1995-09-01

    A systematic approach has been developed to determine benchmark biases and apply those biases to code results to meet the requirements of DOE Order 5480.24 regarding documenting criticality safety margins. Previously, validation of the code against experimental benchmarks to prove reasonable agreement was sufficient. However, DOE Order 5480.24 requires contractors to adhere to the requirements of ANSI/ANS-8.1 and establish subcritical margins. A method was developed to incorporate biases and uncertainties from benchmark calculations into a k eff value with quantifiable uncertainty. The method produces a 95% confidence level in both the k eff value of the scenario modeled and the distribution of the k eff S calculated by the Monte Carlo code. Application of the method to a group of benchmarks modeled using the KENO-Va code and the SCALE 27 group cross sections is also presented

  8. Optimism Bias in Fans and Sports Reporters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Bradley C; Kopeć, Łukasz; Guest, Olivia

    2015-01-01

    People are optimistic about their prospects relative to others. However, existing studies can be difficult to interpret because outcomes are not zero-sum. For example, one person avoiding cancer does not necessitate that another person develops cancer. Ideally, optimism bias would be evaluated within a closed formal system to establish with certainty the extent of the bias and the associated environmental factors, such that optimism bias is demonstrated when a population is internally inconsistent. Accordingly, we asked NFL fans to predict how many games teams they liked and disliked would win in the 2015 season. Fans, like ESPN reporters assigned to cover a team, were overly optimistic about their team's prospects. The opposite pattern was found for teams that fans disliked. Optimism may flourish because year-to-year team results are marked by auto-correlation and regression to the group mean (i.e., good teams stay good, but bad teams improve).

  9. Optimism Bias in Fans and Sports Reporters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Bradley C.

    2015-01-01

    People are optimistic about their prospects relative to others. However, existing studies can be difficult to interpret because outcomes are not zero-sum. For example, one person avoiding cancer does not necessitate that another person develops cancer. Ideally, optimism bias would be evaluated within a closed formal system to establish with certainty the extent of the bias and the associated environmental factors, such that optimism bias is demonstrated when a population is internally inconsistent. Accordingly, we asked NFL fans to predict how many games teams they liked and disliked would win in the 2015 season. Fans, like ESPN reporters assigned to cover a team, were overly optimistic about their team’s prospects. The opposite pattern was found for teams that fans disliked. Optimism may flourish because year-to-year team results are marked by auto-correlation and regression to the group mean (i.e., good teams stay good, but bad teams improve). PMID:26352146

  10. Motion, identity and the bias toward agency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris eFields

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The well-documented human bias toward agency as a cause and therefore an explanation of observed events is typically attributed to evolutionary selection for a social brain. Based on a review of developmental and adult behavioral and neurocognitive data, it is argued that the bias toward agency is a result of the default human solution, developed during infancy, to the computational requirements of object re-identification over gaps in observation of more than a few seconds. If this model is correct, overriding the bias toward agency to construct mechanistic explanations of observed events requires structure-mapping inferences, implemented by the pre-motor action planning system, that replace agents with mechanisms as causes of unobserved changes in contextual or featural properties of objects. Experiments that would test this model are discussed.

  11. Skill-Biased Technological Change in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malchow-Møller, Nikolaj; Rose Skaksen, Jan

    2003-01-01

    Skill-Biased Technological Change in Denmark:A Disaggregate Perspective@*In this paper, we provide an industry-level analysis of skill-biased technological change(SBTC) in Denmark over the last two decades. The analysis shows that SBTC has variedconsiderably across industries, and traditionally...... large Danish industries have experiencedrelatively less SBTC. This may partly explain why wage inequality between skilled and lessskilled has risen less in Denmark than in other countries. We also find that SBTC has beenconcentrated in already skill-intensive industries. This contains important...... information aboutfuture labour requirements, as the relative importance of these industries must be expectedto grow, thereby reinforcing the shift in demand for skilled labour.JEL Classification: J24, J31, L6Keywords: skill-biased technological change, Danish industries...

  12. A system for biasing a differential amplifier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbier, Daniel; Ittel, J.M.; Poujois, Robert

    1975-01-01

    This invention concerns a system for biasing a differential amplifier. It particularly applies to the integrated differential amplifiers designed with MOS field effect transistors. Variations in the technological parameters may well cause the amplifying transistors to work outside their usual operational area, in other words outside the linear part of the transfer characteristic. To ensure that these transistors function correctly, it is necessary that the value of the voltage difference at the output be equally null. To do this and to centre on the so called 'rest' point of the amplifier transfer charateristic, the condition will be set that the output potentials of each amplifier transistor should have a zero value or a constant value as sum. With this in view, the bias on the source (generally a transistor powered by its grid bias voltage) supplying current to the two amplifying transistors fitted in parallel, is permanently adjusted in a suitable manner [fr

  13. Using Machine Learning to Predict MCNP Bias

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grechanuk, Pavel Aleksandrovi [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2018-01-09

    For many real-world applications in radiation transport where simulations are compared to experimental measurements, like in nuclear criticality safety, the bias (simulated - experimental keff) in the calculation is an extremely important quantity used for code validation. The objective of this project is to accurately predict the bias of MCNP6 [1] criticality calculations using machine learning (ML) algorithms, with the intention of creating a tool that can complement the current nuclear criticality safety methods. In the latest release of MCNP6, the Whisper tool is available for criticality safety analysts and includes a large catalogue of experimental benchmarks, sensitivity profiles, and nuclear data covariance matrices. This data, coming from 1100+ benchmark cases, is used in this study of ML algorithms for criticality safety bias predictions.

  14. Social biases determine spatiotemporal sparseness of ciliate mating heuristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Kevin B

    2012-01-01

    Ciliates become highly social, even displaying animal-like qualities, in the joint presence of aroused conspecifics and nonself mating pheromones. Pheromone detection putatively helps trigger instinctual and learned courtship and dominance displays from which social judgments are made about the availability, compatibility, and fitness representativeness or likelihood of prospective mates and rivals. In earlier studies, I demonstrated the heterotrich Spirostomum ambiguum improves mating competence by effecting preconjugal strategies and inferences in mock social trials via behavioral heuristics built from Hebbian-like associative learning. Heuristics embody serial patterns of socially relevant action that evolve into ordered, topologically invariant computational networks supporting intra- and intermate selection. S. ambiguum employs heuristics to acquire, store, plan, compare, modify, select, and execute sets of mating propaganda. One major adaptive constraint over formation and use of heuristics involves a ciliate's initial subjective bias, responsiveness, or preparedness, as defined by Stevens' Law of subjective stimulus intensity, for perceiving the meaningfulness of mechanical pressures accompanying cell-cell contacts and additional perimating events. This bias controls durations and valences of nonassociative learning, search rates for appropriate mating strategies, potential net reproductive payoffs, levels of social honesty and deception, successful error diagnosis and correction of mating signals, use of insight or analysis to solve mating dilemmas, bioenergetics expenditures, and governance of mating decisions by classical or quantum statistical mechanics. I now report this same social bias also differentially affects the spatiotemporal sparseness, as measured with metric entropy, of ciliate heuristics. Sparseness plays an important role in neural systems through optimizing the specificity, efficiency, and capacity of memory representations. The present

  15. Social biases determine spatiotemporal sparseness of ciliate mating heuristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Ciliates become highly social, even displaying animal-like qualities, in the joint presence of aroused conspecifics and nonself mating pheromones. Pheromone detection putatively helps trigger instinctual and learned courtship and dominance displays from which social judgments are made about the availability, compatibility, and fitness representativeness or likelihood of prospective mates and rivals. In earlier studies, I demonstrated the heterotrich Spirostomum ambiguum improves mating competence by effecting preconjugal strategies and inferences in mock social trials via behavioral heuristics built from Hebbian-like associative learning. Heuristics embody serial patterns of socially relevant action that evolve into ordered, topologically invariant computational networks supporting intra- and intermate selection. S. ambiguum employs heuristics to acquire, store, plan, compare, modify, select, and execute sets of mating propaganda. One major adaptive constraint over formation and use of heuristics involves a ciliate’s initial subjective bias, responsiveness, or preparedness, as defined by Stevens’ Law of subjective stimulus intensity, for perceiving the meaningfulness of mechanical pressures accompanying cell-cell contacts and additional perimating events. This bias controls durations and valences of nonassociative learning, search rates for appropriate mating strategies, potential net reproductive payoffs, levels of social honesty and deception, successful error diagnosis and correction of mating signals, use of insight or analysis to solve mating dilemmas, bioenergetics expenditures, and governance of mating decisions by classical or quantum statistical mechanics. I now report this same social bias also differentially affects the spatiotemporal sparseness, as measured with metric entropy, of ciliate heuristics. Sparseness plays an important role in neural systems through optimizing the specificity, efficiency, and capacity of memory representations. The

  16. Beyond attentional bias: a perceptual bias in a dot-probe task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocanegra, Bruno R; Huijding, Jorg; Zeelenberg, René

    2012-12-01

    Previous dot-probe studies indicate that threat-related face cues induce a bias in spatial attention. Independently of spatial attention, a recent psychophysical study suggests that a bilateral fearful face cue improves low spatial-frequency perception (LSF) and impairs high spatial-frequency perception (HSF). Here, we combine these separate lines of research within a single dot-probe paradigm. We found that a bilateral fearful face cue, compared with a bilateral neutral face cue, speeded up responses to LSF targets and slowed down responses to HSF targets. This finding is important, as it shows that emotional cues in dot-probe tasks not only bias where information is preferentially processed (i.e., an attentional bias in spatial location), but also bias what type of information is preferentially processed (i.e., a perceptual bias in spatial frequency). PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  17. Biasing of Capacitive Micromachined Ultrasonic Transducers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caliano, Giosue; Matrone, Giulia; Savoia, Alessandro Stuart

    2017-02-01

    Capacitive micromachined ultrasonic transducers (CMUTs) represent an effective alternative to piezoelectric transducers for medical ultrasound imaging applications. They are microelectromechanical devices fabricated using silicon micromachining techniques, developed in the last two decades in many laboratories. The interest for this novel transducer technology relies on its full compatibility with standard integrated circuit technology that makes it possible to integrate on the same chip the transducers and the electronics, thus enabling the realization of extremely low-cost and high-performance devices, including both 1-D or 2-D arrays. Being capacitive transducers, CMUTs require a high bias voltage to be properly operated in pulse-echo imaging applications. The typical bias supply residual ripple of high-quality high-voltage (HV) generators is in the millivolt range, which is comparable with the amplitude of the received echo signals, and it is particularly difficult to minimize. The aim of this paper is to analyze the classical CMUT biasing circuits, highlighting the features of each one, and to propose two novel HV generator architectures optimized for CMUT biasing applications. The first circuit proposed is an ultralow-residual ripple (generator that uses an extremely stable sinusoidal power oscillator topology. The second circuit employs a commercially available integrated step-up converter characterized by a particularly efficient switching topology. The circuit is used to bias the CMUT by charging a buffer capacitor synchronously with the pulsing sequence, thus reducing the impact of the switching noise on the received echo signals. The small area of the circuit (about 1.5 cm 2 ) makes it possible to generate the bias voltage inside the probe, very close to the CMUT, making the proposed solution attractive for portable applications. Measurements and experiments are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new approaches presented.

  18. Best Practices in Hiring: Addressing Unconscious Bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Caroline E.

    2012-01-01

    Research has shown that implementing certain hiring practices will increase diversity in the workplace while enhancing academic quality. All of these practices rely on addressing the issue of 'unconscious bias.' A brief overview of unconscious bias--what it is, how it works, and simple measures to counter it--will be presented. Successful strategies, actions, and recommendations for implementing best recruiting and hiring practices, which have been proven to enhance academic excellence by ensuring a deep and diverse applicant pool, will also be presented.

  19. Reducing hypothetical bias in choice experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ladenburg, Jacob; Olsen, Søren Bøye; Nielsen, Rasmus Christian Fejer

    eliminate some of the hypothetical bias. The present paper tests an addition to Cheap Talk, an Opt-Out Reminder. The Opt-Out Reminder is an objective short script presented prior to the choice sets, prompting the respondent to choose the opt-out alternative, if he/she finds the proposed policy generated...... alternatives in a choice set too expensive. The results suggest that adding an Opt-Out Reminder to Cheap Talk can in fact reduce hypothetical bias even further and reduces some of the ineffectiveness of CT in relation to the survey bid range and experienced respondents....

  20. Significance analysis of lexical bias in microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Falkow Stanley

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genes that are determined to be significantly differentially regulated in microarray analyses often appear to have functional commonalities, such as being components of the same biochemical pathway. This results in certain words being under- or overrepresented in the list of genes. Distinguishing between biologically meaningful trends and artifacts of annotation and analysis procedures is of the utmost importance, as only true biological trends are of interest for further experimentation. A number of sophisticated methods for identification of significant lexical trends are currently available, but these methods are generally too cumbersome for practical use by most microarray users. Results We have developed a tool, LACK, for calculating the statistical significance of apparent lexical bias in microarray datasets. The frequency of a user-specified list of search terms in a list of genes which are differentially regulated is assessed for statistical significance by comparison to randomly generated datasets. The simplicity of the input files and user interface targets the average microarray user who wishes to have a statistical measure of apparent lexical trends in analyzed datasets without the need for bioinformatics skills. The software is available as Perl source or a Windows executable. Conclusion We have used LACK in our laboratory to generate biological hypotheses based on our microarray data. We demonstrate the program's utility using an example in which we confirm significant upregulation of SPI-2 pathogenicity island of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium by the cation chelator dipyridyl.

  1. INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING PROCESS. BIASES AND REMEDIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ADRIAN MITROI

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available ary In the pursuit of understanding the behavior of the market player, the basic argument relays on the supposition that the risk appetite increases exactly at the worst moment - when the capacity to assume additional risk decreases significantly. People view a sample randomly drawn from a population as highly representative and cvasi similar to the population in all its essential characteristics. They expect any two samples drawn from a particular population to be more similar to one another and to the population than is statistically justifiable. This behavior is different from the tenets of classic finance theory. The article reviews some psychological concepts relevant and used in the study, in an interdisciplinary effort of understanding the correlation or causality between psychology and finance. The statistical interrogation describes the sampling methodology, the frequency of data and the empirical methodology that lead to analysis of the results and concluding remarks. The study provides details on raw statistical test scores, regression results and analysis. In this study, I evaluate the association between investors’ behavior and her portfolio results. The paper aims at demonstrating whether investor psychological biases lead to investment performance to tilt to the mean in the long run.

  2. Conformity and statistical tolerancing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leblond, Laurent; Pillet, Maurice

    2018-02-01

    Statistical tolerancing was first proposed by Shewhart (Economic Control of Quality of Manufactured Product, (1931) reprinted 1980 by ASQC), in spite of this long history, its use remains moderate. One of the probable reasons for this low utilization is undoubtedly the difficulty for designers to anticipate the risks of this approach. The arithmetic tolerance (worst case) allows a simple interpretation: conformity is defined by the presence of the characteristic in an interval. Statistical tolerancing is more complex in its definition. An interval is not sufficient to define the conformance. To justify the statistical tolerancing formula used by designers, a tolerance interval should be interpreted as the interval where most of the parts produced should probably be located. This tolerance is justified by considering a conformity criterion of the parts guaranteeing low offsets on the latter characteristics. Unlike traditional arithmetic tolerancing, statistical tolerancing requires a sustained exchange of information between design and manufacture to be used safely. This paper proposes a formal definition of the conformity, which we apply successively to the quadratic and arithmetic tolerancing. We introduce a concept of concavity, which helps us to demonstrate the link between tolerancing approach and conformity. We use this concept to demonstrate the various acceptable propositions of statistical tolerancing (in the space decentring, dispersion).

  3. Intuitive introductory statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Wolfe, Douglas A

    2017-01-01

    This textbook is designed to give an engaging introduction to statistics and the art of data analysis. The unique scope includes, but also goes beyond, classical methodology associated with the normal distribution. What if the normal model is not valid for a particular data set? This cutting-edge approach provides the alternatives. It is an introduction to the world and possibilities of statistics that uses exercises, computer analyses, and simulations throughout the core lessons. These elementary statistical methods are intuitive. Counting and ranking features prominently in the text. Nonparametric methods, for instance, are often based on counts and ranks and are very easy to integrate into an introductory course. The ease of computation with advanced calculators and statistical software, both of which factor into this text, allows important techniques to be introduced earlier in the study of statistics. This book's novel scope also includes measuring symmetry with Walsh averages, finding a nonp...

  4. Wind energy statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holttinen, H.; Tammelin, B.; Hyvoenen, R.

    1997-01-01

    The recording, analyzing and publishing of statistics of wind energy production has been reorganized in cooperation of VTT Energy, Finnish Meteorological (FMI Energy) and Finnish Wind Energy Association (STY) and supported by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (KTM). VTT Energy has developed a database that contains both monthly data and information on the wind turbines, sites and operators involved. The monthly production figures together with component failure statistics are collected from the operators by VTT Energy, who produces the final wind energy statistics to be published in Tuulensilmae and reported to energy statistics in Finland and abroad (Statistics Finland, Eurostat, IEA). To be able to verify the annual and monthly wind energy potential with average wind energy climate a production index in adopted. The index gives the expected wind energy production at various areas in Finland calculated using real wind speed observations, air density and a power curve for a typical 500 kW-wind turbine. FMI Energy has produced the average figures for four weather stations using the data from 1985-1996, and produces the monthly figures. (orig.)

  5. How does the cosmic web impact assembly bias?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musso, M.; Cadiou, C.; Pichon, C.; Codis, S.; Kraljic, K.; Dubois, Y.

    2018-06-01

    The mass, accretion rate, and formation time of dark matter haloes near protofilaments (identified as saddle points of the potential) are analytically predicted using a conditional version of the excursion set approach in its so-called upcrossing approximation. The model predicts that at fixed mass, mass accretion rate and formation time vary with orientation and distance from the saddle, demonstrating that assembly bias is indeed influenced by the tides imposed by the cosmic web. Starved, early-forming haloes of smaller mass lie preferentially along the main axis of filaments, while more massive and younger haloes are found closer to the nodes. Distinct gradients for distinct tracers such as typical mass and accretion rate occur because the saddle condition is anisotropic, and because the statistics of these observables depend on both the conditional means and their covariances. The theory is extended to other critical points of the potential field. The response of the mass function to variations of the matter density field (the so-called large-scale bias) is computed, and its trend with accretion rate is shown to invert along the filament. The signature of this model should correspond at low redshift to an excess of reddened galactic hosts at fixed mass along preferred directions, as recently reported in spectroscopic and photometric surveys and in hydrodynamical simulations. The anisotropy of the cosmic web emerges therefore as a significant ingredient to describe jointly the dynamics and physics of galaxies, e.g. in the context of intrinsic alignments or morphological diversity.

  6. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  7. Multivariate Statistical Process Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kulahci, Murat

    2013-01-01

    As sensor and computer technology continues to improve, it becomes a normal occurrence that we confront with high dimensional data sets. As in many areas of industrial statistics, this brings forth various challenges in statistical process control (SPC) and monitoring for which the aim...... is to identify “out-of-control” state of a process using control charts in order to reduce the excessive variation caused by so-called assignable causes. In practice, the most common method of monitoring multivariate data is through a statistic akin to the Hotelling’s T2. For high dimensional data with excessive...... amount of cross correlation, practitioners are often recommended to use latent structures methods such as Principal Component Analysis to summarize the data in only a few linear combinations of the original variables that capture most of the variation in the data. Applications of these control charts...

  8. Statistics for Finance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindström, Erik; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Jan Nygaard

    Statistics for Finance develops students’ professional skills in statistics with applications in finance. Developed from the authors’ courses at the Technical University of Denmark and Lund University, the text bridges the gap between classical, rigorous treatments of financial mathematics...... that rarely connect concepts to data and books on econometrics and time series analysis that do not cover specific problems related to option valuation. The book discusses applications of financial derivatives pertaining to risk assessment and elimination. The authors cover various statistical...... and mathematical techniques, including linear and nonlinear time series analysis, stochastic calculus models, stochastic differential equations, Itō’s formula, the Black–Scholes model, the generalized method-of-moments, and the Kalman filter. They explain how these tools are used to price financial derivatives...

  9. 1992 Energy statistics Yearbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The principal objective of the Yearbook is to provide a global framework of comparable data on long-term trends in the supply of mainly commercial primary and secondary forms of energy. Data for each type of fuel and aggregate data for the total mix of commercial fuels are shown for individual countries and areas and are summarized into regional and world totals. The data are compiled primarily from annual questionnaires distributed by the United Nations Statistical Division and supplemented by official national statistical publications. Where official data are not available or are inconsistent, estimates are made by the Statistical Division based on governmental, professional or commercial materials. Estimates include, but are not limited to, extrapolated data based on partial year information, use of annual trends, trade data based on partner country reports, breakdowns of aggregated data as well as analysis of current energy events and activities

  10. Energy statistics manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Detailed, complete, timely and reliable statistics are essential to monitor the energy situation at a country level as well as at an international level. Energy statistics on supply, trade, stocks, transformation and demand are indeed the basis for any sound energy policy decision. For instance, the market of oil -- which is the largest traded commodity worldwide -- needs to be closely monitored in order for all market players to know at any time what is produced, traded, stocked and consumed and by whom. In view of the role and importance of energy in world development, one would expect that basic energy information to be readily available and reliable. This is not always the case and one can even observe a decline in the quality, coverage and timeliness of energy statistics over the last few years.

  11. Statistical Engine Knock Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stotsky, Alexander A.

    2008-01-01

    A new statistical concept of the knock control of a spark ignition automotive engine is proposed . The control aim is associated with the statistical hy pothesis test which compares the threshold value to the average value of the max imal amplitud e of the knock sensor signal at a given freq uency....... C ontrol algorithm which is used for minimization of the regulation error realizes a simple count-up-count-d own logic. A new ad aptation algorithm for the knock d etection threshold is also d eveloped . C onfi d ence interval method is used as the b asis for ad aptation. A simple statistical mod el...... which includ es generation of the amplitud e signals, a threshold value d etermination and a knock sound mod el is d eveloped for evaluation of the control concept....

  12. Assessing the implementation of bias correction in the climate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadrah Aqilah Tukimat, Nurul

    2018-04-01

    An issue of the climate changes nowadays becomes trigger and irregular. The increment of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission into the atmospheric system day by day gives huge impact to the fluctuated weather and global warming. It becomes significant to analyse the changes of climate parameters in the long term. However, the accuracy in the climate simulation is always be questioned to control the reliability of the projection results. Thus, the Linear Scaling (LS) as a bias correction method (BC) had been applied to treat the gaps between observed and simulated results. About two rainfall stations were selected in Pahang state there are Station Lubuk Paku and Station Temerloh. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) used to perform the relationship between local weather and atmospheric parameters in projecting the long term rainfall trend. The result revealed the LS was successfully to reduce the error up to 3% and produced better climate simulated results.

  13. Grandfather regulations, new source bias, and state air toxics regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levinson, Arik

    1999-01-01

    This paper uses plant-level data from the Census of Manufactures and the variation in toxic air pollution regulations across states to measure the effects of laws that are more stringent for new sources of pollution than for existing sources (so-called 'grandfather' regulations). Of particular interest is the resulting 'new source bias' and its effects on capital vintage and investment. Two industries are examined: commercial printing, which has a local product market; and paint manufacturing, which has a more national market. In general, there seem to be no statistically significant differences in capital vintage or investment between plants in states that grandfather new sources of pollution, plants in states that have no air toxics regulations, and plants in states that regulate both new and existing sources

  14. Perception in statistical graphics

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanderPlas, Susan Ruth

    There has been quite a bit of research on statistical graphics and visualization, generally focused on new types of graphics, new software to create graphics, interactivity, and usability studies. Our ability to interpret and use statistical graphics hinges on the interface between the graph itself and the brain that perceives and interprets it, and there is substantially less research on the interplay between graph, eye, brain, and mind than is sufficient to understand the nature of these relationships. The goal of the work presented here is to further explore the interplay between a static graph, the translation of that graph from paper to mental representation (the journey from eye to brain), and the mental processes that operate on that graph once it is transferred into memory (mind). Understanding the perception of statistical graphics should allow researchers to create more effective graphs which produce fewer distortions and viewer errors while reducing the cognitive load necessary to understand the information presented in the graph. Taken together, these experiments should lay a foundation for exploring the perception of statistical graphics. There has been considerable research into the accuracy of numerical judgments viewers make from graphs, and these studies are useful, but it is more effective to understand how errors in these judgments occur so that the root cause of the error can be addressed directly. Understanding how visual reasoning relates to the ability to make judgments from graphs allows us to tailor graphics to particular target audiences. In addition, understanding the hierarchy of salient features in statistical graphics allows us to clearly communicate the important message from data or statistical models by constructing graphics which are designed specifically for the perceptual system.

  15. READING STATISTICS AND RESEARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reviewed by Yavuz Akbulut

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The book demonstrates the best and most conservative ways to decipher and critique research reports particularly for social science researchers. In addition, new editions of the book are always better organized, effectively structured and meticulously updated in line with the developments in the field of research statistics. Even the most trivial issues are revisited and updated in new editions. For instance, purchaser of the previous editions might check the interpretation of skewness and kurtosis indices in the third edition (p. 34 and in the fifth edition (p.29 to see how the author revisits every single detail. Theory and practice always go hand in hand in all editions of the book. Re-reading previous editions (e.g. third edition before reading the fifth edition gives the impression that the author never stops ameliorating his instructional text writing methods. In brief, “Reading Statistics and Research” is among the best sources showing research consumers how to understand and critically assess the statistical information and research results contained in technical research reports. In this respect, the review written by Mirko Savić in Panoeconomicus (2008, 2, pp. 249-252 will help the readers to get a more detailed overview of each chapters. I cordially urge the beginning researchers to pick a highlighter to conduct a detailed reading with the book. A thorough reading of the source will make the researchers quite selective in appreciating the harmony between the data analysis, results and discussion sections of typical journal articles. If interested, beginning researchers might begin with this book to grasp the basics of research statistics, and prop up their critical research reading skills with some statistics package applications through the help of Dr. Andy Field’s book, Discovering Statistics using SPSS (second edition published by Sage in 2005.

  16. Statistics for business

    CERN Document Server

    Waller, Derek L

    2008-01-01

    Statistical analysis is essential to business decision-making and management, but the underlying theory of data collection, organization and analysis is one of the most challenging topics for business students and practitioners. This user-friendly text and CD-ROM package will help you to develop strong skills in presenting and interpreting statistical information in a business or management environment. Based entirely on using Microsoft Excel rather than more complicated applications, it includes a clear guide to using Excel with the key functions employed in the book, a glossary of terms and

  17. Statistics As Principled Argument

    CERN Document Server

    Abelson, Robert P

    2012-01-01

    In this illuminating volume, Robert P. Abelson delves into the too-often dismissed problems of interpreting quantitative data and then presenting them in the context of a coherent story about one's research. Unlike too many books on statistics, this is a remarkably engaging read, filled with fascinating real-life (and real-research) examples rather than with recipes for analysis. It will be of true interest and lasting value to beginning graduate students and seasoned researchers alike. The focus of the book is that the purpose of statistics is to organize a useful argument from quantitative

  18. 1997 statistical yearbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The international office of energy information and studies (Enerdata), has published the second edition of its 1997 statistical yearbook which includes consolidated 1996 data with respect to the previous version from June 1997. The CD-Rom comprises the annual worldwide petroleum, natural gas, coal and electricity statistics from 1991 to 1996 with information about production, external trade, consumption, market shares, sectoral distribution of consumption and energy balance sheets. The world is divided into 12 zones (52 countries available). It contains also energy indicators: production and consumption tendencies, supply and production structures, safety of supplies, energy efficiency, and CO 2 emissions. (J.S.)

  19. Einstein's statistical mechanics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baracca, A; Rechtman S, R

    1985-08-01

    The foundation of equilibrium classical statistical mechanics were laid down in 1902 independently by Gibbs and Einstein. The latter's contribution, developed in three papers published between 1902 and 1904, is usually forgotten and when not, rapidly dismissed as equivalent to Gibb's. We review in detail Einstein's ideas on the foundations of statistical mechanics and show that they constitute the beginning of a research program that led Einstein to quantum theory. We also show how these ideas may be used as a starting point for an introductory course on the subject.

  20. Einstein's statistical mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baracca, A.; Rechtman S, R.

    1985-01-01

    The foundation of equilibrium classical statistical mechanics were laid down in 1902 independently by Gibbs and Einstein. The latter's contribution, developed in three papers published between 1902 and 1904, is usually forgotten and when not, rapidly dismissed as equivalent to Gibb's. We review in detail Einstein's ideas on the foundations of statistical mechanics and show that they constitute the beginning of a research program that led Einstein to quantum theory. We also show how these ideas may be used as a starting point for an introductory course on the subject. (author)