The Demand Side in Economic Models of Energy Markets: The Challenge of Representing Consumer Behavior

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krysiak, Frank C., E-mail: frank.krysiak@unibas.ch; Weigt, Hannes [Department of Business and Economics, University of Basel, Basel (Switzerland)

2015-05-19

Energy models play an increasing role in the ongoing energy transition processes either as tools for forecasting potential developments or for assessments of policy and market design options. In recent years, these models have increased in scope and scale and provide a reasonable representation of the energy supply side, technological aspects and general macroeconomic interactions. However, the representation of the demand side and consumer behavior has remained rather simplistic. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we review existing large-scale energy model approaches, namely bottom-up and top-down models, with respect to their demand-side representation. Second, we identify gaps in existing approaches and draft potential pathways to account for a more detailed demand-side and behavior representation in energy modeling.

The Demand Side in Economic Models of Energy Markets: The Challenge of Representing Consumer Behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frank eKrysiak

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Energy models play an increasing role in the ongoing energy transition processes either as tools for forecasting potential developments or for assessments of policy and market design options. In recent years these models have increased in scope and scale and provide a reasonable representation of the energy supply side, technological aspects and general macroeconomic interactions. However, the representation of the demand side and consumer behavior has remained rather simplistic. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we review existing large scale energy model approaches, namely bottom-up and top-down models, with respect to their demand side representation. Second, we identify gaps in existing approaches and draft potential pathways to account for a more detailed demand side and behavior representation in energy modeling.

The Demand Side in Economic Models of Energy Markets: The Challenge of Representing Consumer Behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krysiak, Frank C.; Weigt, Hannes

2015-01-01

Energy models play an increasing role in the ongoing energy transition processes either as tools for forecasting potential developments or for assessments of policy and market design options. In recent years, these models have increased in scope and scale and provide a reasonable representation of the energy supply side, technological aspects and general macroeconomic interactions. However, the representation of the demand side and consumer behavior has remained rather simplistic. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we review existing large-scale energy model approaches, namely bottom-up and top-down models, with respect to their demand-side representation. Second, we identify gaps in existing approaches and draft potential pathways to account for a more detailed demand-side and behavior representation in energy modeling.

Integrating Demand-Side Resources into the Electric Grid: Economic and Environmental Considerations

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, Michael J.

Demand-side resources are taking an increasingly prominent role in providing essential grid services once provided by thermal power plants. This thesis considers the economic feasibility and environmental effects of integrating demand-side resources into the electric grid with consideration given to the diversity of market and environmental conditions that can affect their behavior. Chapter 2 explores the private economics and system-level carbon dioxide reduction when using demand response for spinning reserve. Steady end uses like lighting are more than twice as profitable as seasonal end uses because spinning reserve is needed year-round. Avoided carbon emission damages from using demand response instead of fossil fuel generation for spinning reserve are sufficient to justify incentives for demand response resources. Chapter 3 quantifies the system-level net emissions rate and private economics of behind-the-meter energy storage. Net emission rates are lower than marginal emission rates for power plants and in-line with estimates of net emission rates from grid-level storage. The economics are favorable for many buildings in regions with high demand charges like California and New York, even without subsidies. Future penetration into regions with average charges like Pennsylvania will depend greatly on installation cost reductions and wholesale prices for ancillary services. Chapter 4 outlines a novel econometric model to quantify potential revenues from energy storage that reduces demand charges. The model is based on a novel predictive metric that is derived from the building's load profile. Normalized revenue estimates are independent of the power capacity of the battery holding other performance characteristics equal, which can be used to calculate the profit-maximizing storage size. Chapter 5 analyzes the economic feasibility of flow batteries in the commercial and industrial market. Flow batteries at a 4-hour duration must be less expensive on a dollar per

Behavioral economic measures of alcohol reward value as problem severity indicators in college students.

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Skidmore, Jessica R; Murphy, James G; Martens, Matthew P

2014-06-01

The aims of the current study were to examine the associations among behavioral economic measures of alcohol value derived from 3 distinct measurement approaches, and to evaluate their respective relations with traditional indicators of alcohol problem severity in college drinkers. Five behavioral economic metrics were derived from hypothetical demand curves that quantify reward value by plotting consumption and expenditures as a function of price, another metric measured proportional behavioral allocation and enjoyment related to alcohol versus other activities, and a final metric measured relative discretionary expenditures on alcohol (RDEA). The sample included 207 heavy-drinking college students (53% female) who were recruited through an on-campus health center or university courses. Factor analysis revealed that the alcohol valuation construct comprises 2 factors: 1 factor that reflects participants' levels of alcohol price sensitivity (demand persistence), and a second factor that reflects participants' maximum consumption and monetary and behavioral allocation toward alcohol (amplitude of demand). The demand persistence and behavioral allocation metrics demonstrated the strongest and most consistent multivariate relations with alcohol-related problems, even when controlling for other well-established predictors. The results suggest that behavioral economic indices of reward value show meaningful relations with alcohol problem severity in young adults. Despite the presence of some gender differences, these measures appear to be useful problem indicators for men and women. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

The Impact of the Current Economic Crisis on the Demand for Higher Education: An Analysis of Spanish Distance Education Universities

Science.gov (United States)

Reina-Paz, María Dolores; Rodríguez-Oromendía, Ainhoa; Sevilla-Sevilla, Claudia

2012-01-01

Spain is currently experiencing a difficult economic situation, and in recent years a significant change has been observed in the behavior of the demand for educational programs as a result of this situation. Recent studies reveal a change in student demand that does not have the same effect on all academic institutions. Bearing this behavior in…

The future of health economics: The potential of behavioral and experimental economics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fredrik Hansen

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Health care systems around the globe are facing great challenges. The demand for health care is increasing due to the continuous development of new medical technologies, changing demographics, increasing income levels, and greater expectations from patients. The possibilities and willingness to expand health care resources, however, are limited. Consequently, health care organizations are increasingly required to take economic restrictions into account, and there is an urgent need for improved efficiency. It is reasonable to ask whether the health economics field of today is prepared and equipped to help us meet these challenges. Our aim with this article is twofold: to introduce the fields of behavioral and experimental economics and to then identify and characterize health economics areas where these two fields have a promising potential. We also discuss the advantages of a pluralistic view in health economics research, and we anticipate a dynamic future for health economics.

Behavioral Economic Purchase Tasks to Estimate Demand for Novel Nicotine/Tobacco Products and Prospectively Predict Future Use: Evidence from the Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Heckman, Bryan W; Cummings, K Michael; Nahas, Georges J; Willemsen, Marc C; O'Connor, Richard J; Borland, Ron; Hirsch, Alexander A; Bickel, Warren K; Carpenter, Matthew J

2018-03-14

The demand for alternative nicotine/tobacco products is not well established. This paper uses a behavioral economic approach to test whether smokers have differential demand for conventional factory-made, electronic, and very low nicotine content cigarettes (FMCs/ECs/VLNCs) and uses the prospective cohort design to test the predictive validity of demand indices on subsequent use of commercially available FMCs and ECs. Daily smokers (>16 years) from the Netherlands completed an online survey in April 2014 (N=1215). Purchase tasks were completed for FMCs, ECs, and VLNCs. Participants indicated the number of cigarettes they would consume in 24 hours, across a range of prices (0-30 euro). The relationship between consumption and price was quantified into four indices of demand (intensity, Pmax, breakpoint, and essential value). A follow-up survey in July 2015 measured FMC and EC use. At baseline, greater demand was observed for FMCs relative to ECs and VLNCs across all demand indices, with no difference between ECs and VLNCs. At follow-up, greater baseline FMC demand (intensity, essential value) was associated with lower quit rates and higher relapse. EC demand (Pmax, breakpoint, essential value) was positively associated with any EC use between survey waves, past 30 day EC use, and EC purchase between waves. Smokers valued FMCs more than ECs or VLNCs, and FMCs were less sensitive to price increases. Demand indices predicted use of commercially available products over a 15 month period. To serve as viable substitutes for FMCs, ECs and VLNCs will need to be priced lower than FMCs. Purchase tasks can be adapted for novel nicotine/tobacco products as a means to efficiently quantify demand and predict use. Among current daily smokers, the demand for ECs and VLNCs is lower than FMCs.

THE CONTENT OF AN ECONOMIC CATEGORY AND THE MEASUREMENT OF THE MARKET DEMAND

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Anatoly V. Korotkov

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the article is to study the economic and statistical categories and levels of consumer demand. There is no uniformity in the interpretation of the content of an economic category and demand level in the literature on the economic theory and applied research of the market. We want to conduct the verification of the demand category, a consolidation of the wording of measuring the level of demand, the classification of demand. Theoretical basis of the conducted research is the methodology of the economic theory and the general theory of statistics.

An initial study of behavioral addiction symptom severity and demand for indoor tanning.

Science.gov (United States)

Becirevic, Amel; Reed, Derek D; Amlung, Michael; Murphy, James G; Stapleton, Jerod L; Hillhouse, Joel J

2017-10-01

Indoor tanning remains a popular activity in Western cultures despite a growing body of literature suggesting its link to skin cancer and melanoma. Advances in indoor tanning research have illuminated problematic patterns of its use. With problems such as difficulty quitting, devoting resources toward its use at the expense of healthy activities, and excessive motivation and urges to tan, symptoms of excessive indoor tanning appear consistent with behavioral addiction. The present study bridges the gap between clinical approaches to understanding indoor tanning problems and behavioral economic considerations of unhealthy habits and addiction. Eighty undergraduate females completed both the Behavioral Addiction Indoor Tanning Screener and the Tanning Purchase Task. Results suggest that behavioral economic demand for tanning significantly differs between risk classification groups, providing divergent validity to the Behavioral Addiction Indoor Tanning Screener and offering additional evidence of the sensitivity of the Tanning Purchase Task to differentiating groups according to tanning profiles. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Trading the Economic Value of Unsatisfied Municipal Water Demand

Science.gov (United States)

Telfah, Dua'a. B.; Minciardi, Riccardo; Roth, Giorgio

2018-06-01

Modelling and optimization techniques for water resources allocation are proposed to identify the economic value of the unsatisfied municipal water demand against demands emerging from other sectors. While this is always an important step in integrated water resource management perspective, it became crucial for water scarce Countries. In fact, since the competition for the resource is high, they are in crucial need to trade values which will help them in satisfying their policies and needs. In this framework, hydro-economic, social equity and environmental constraints need to be satisfied. In the present study, a hydro-economic decision model based on optimization schemes has been developed for water resources allocation, that enable the evaluation of the economic cost of a deficiency in fulfilling the municipal demand. Moreover, the model enables efficient water resources management, satisfying the demand and proposing additional water resources options. The formulated model is designed to maximize the demand satisfaction and minimize water production cost subject to system priorities, preferences and constraints. The demand priorities are defined based on the effect of demand dissatisfaction, while hydrogeological and physical characteristics of the resources are embedded as constraints in the optimization problem. The application to the City of Amman is presented. Amman is the Capital City of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, a Country located in the south-eastern area of the Mediterranean, on the East Bank of the Jordan River. The main challenge for Jordan, that threat the development and prosperity of all sectors, is the extreme water scarcity. In fact, Jordan is classified as semi-arid to arid region with limited financial resources and unprecedented population growth. While the easy solution directly goes to the simple but expensive approach to cover the demand, case study results show that the proposed model plays a major role in providing directions to

Trading the Economic Value of Unsatisfied Municipal Water Demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. B. Telfah

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Modelling and optimization techniques for water resources allocation are proposed to identify the economic value of the unsatisfied municipal water demand against demands emerging from other sectors. While this is always an important step in integrated water resource management perspective, it became crucial for water scarce Countries. In fact, since the competition for the resource is high, they are in crucial need to trade values which will help them in satisfying their policies and needs. In this framework, hydro-economic, social equity and environmental constraints need to be satisfied. In the present study, a hydro-economic decision model based on optimization schemes has been developed for water resources allocation, that enable the evaluation of the economic cost of a deficiency in fulfilling the municipal demand. Moreover, the model enables efficient water resources management, satisfying the demand and proposing additional water resources options. The formulated model is designed to maximize the demand satisfaction and minimize water production cost subject to system priorities, preferences and constraints. The demand priorities are defined based on the effect of demand dissatisfaction, while hydrogeological and physical characteristics of the resources are embedded as constraints in the optimization problem. The application to the City of Amman is presented. Amman is the Capital City of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, a Country located in the south-eastern area of the Mediterranean, on the East Bank of the Jordan River. The main challenge for Jordan, that threat the development and prosperity of all sectors, is the extreme water scarcity. In fact, Jordan is classified as semi-arid to arid region with limited financial resources and unprecedented population growth. While the easy solution directly goes to the simple but expensive approach to cover the demand, case study results show that the proposed model plays a major role in

Behavioral Economics and Consumption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Reisch, Lucia A.; Sunstein, Cass R.

2015-01-01

Behavioral economics explores why people sometimes fail to make rational decisions, and how their behavior departs from the predictions of standard economic models. Insights gained from studies in behavioral economics are used in consumer research and consumer policy to understand and improve ind...

Homo Oeconomicus and Behavioral Economics

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Justyna Brzezicka

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in behavioral trends in both economic theory and practical applications. As a science with vast potential for explaining complex market behaviors, behavioral economics is drifting away from the classical model of homo oeconomicus deployed by mainstream economics. This paper discusses the significance and role of the homo oeconomicus model in light of behavioral economics. It analyzes the direction of changes affecting homo oeconomicus, examines the definition of anomalies within the context of behavioral economics and discusses the anomalous status of homo oeconomicus. The paper proposes a hypothesis that the attitude characterizing homo oeconomicus is unique and incidental. The presented interdisciplinary analysis relies on economics, behavioral economics, economic psychology, behavioral finance and the methodology of science to discuss the homo oeconomicus model. The paper reviews change trends in economics, which are largely propelled by advancements in behavioral economics. The key methodological tools deployed in this paper are theoretical analysis and a compilation of extensive research findings. The results were used to formulate new theories advocating the development of a modern approach to the homo oeconomicus model, recognizing its significance and the growing importance of behavioral economics.

Addictive behavior in cinema demand: evidence from Korea

OpenAIRE

Sangho KIM; Donghyun PARK

2010-01-01

It is intuitively plausible that the demand for cinema services may be partly driven by addiction or habit. Yet there is almost no empirical literature which tests for whether cinema demand is addictive. We estimate addiction models for cinema demand using Korean time series data from 1963 to 2004. Our estimation results indicate that (i) addictive behavior characterizes the demand for cinema services, (ii) this behavior is rational, and (iii) habit is one of most important determinants of ci...

Principles of (Behavioral) Economics

OpenAIRE

David Laibson; John A. List

2015-01-01

Behavioral economics has become an important and integrated component of modern economics. Behavioral economists embrace the core principles of economics—optimization and equilibrium—and seek to develop and extend those ideas to make them more empirically accurate. Behavioral models assume that economic actors try to pick the best feasible option and those actors sometimes make mistakes. Behavioral ideas should be incorporated throughout the first-year undergraduate course. Instructors should...

Factors Influencing Compensation Demanded for Environmental Impacts Generated by Different Economic Activities

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Virna Vaneza Gutiérrez

2015-07-01

Full Text Available This work advances the understanding of compensation demanded for environmental impacts on atmosphere, lakes and rivers, soil, and ocean generated by mining, urban, fishing and agriculture activities. Our aims are to determine whether compensation demanded depends on the standard variables used in the field of risk perception (as perceived risk, public acceptability and trust in regulating authorities, and to explore whether these relationships depend on the environment affected and on the economic activity generating the impacts. General Linear Models were used to analyze survey responses from 427 citizens of Santiago, Chile. Results showed that compensation demanded depends on perceived risk, acceptability, and on the economic activity, but not on the environment affected. Acceptability depends on trust in authorities, on perceived risk and on the economic activity. Perceived risk depends on trust, the economic activity and the environment affected. Overall, environmental impacts from the mining industry are perceived as riskier, less acceptable, and have a higher compensation demanded than those generated by the other sectors. These results suggest that to achieve sustainable development, regulations should consider not only environmental impacts but also the economic activity originating them.

Economic information from Smart Meter: Nexus Between Demand Profile and Electricity Retail Price Between Demand Profile and Electricity Retail Price

OpenAIRE

Yu, Yang; Liu, Guangyi; Zhu, Wendong; Wang, Fei; Shu, Bin; Zhang, Kai; Rajagopal, Ram; Astier, Nicolas

2016-01-01

In this paper, we demonstrate that a consumer's marginal system impact is only determined by their demand profile rather than their demand level. Demand profile clustering is identical to cluster consumers according to their marginal impacts on system costs. A profile-based uniform-rate price is economically efficient as real-time pricing. We develop a criteria system to evaluate the economic efficiency of an implemented retail price scheme in a distribution system by comparing profile cluste...

Conditional Economic Incentives for Reducing HIV Risk Behaviors: Integration of Psychology and Behavioral Economics

Science.gov (United States)

Operario, Don; Kuo, Caroline C.; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G.; Gálarraga, Omar

2014-01-01

Objective This paper reviews psychology and behavioral economic approaches to HIV prevention, and examines the integration and application of these approaches in conditional economic incentive (CEI) programs for reducing HIV risk behavior. Methods We discuss the history of HIV prevention approaches, highlighting the important insights and limitations of psychological theories. We provide an overview of the theoretical tenets of behavioral economics that are relevant to HIV prevention, and utilize CEIs as an illustrative example of how traditional psychological theories end behavioral economics can be combined into new approaches for HIV prevention. Results Behavioral economic interventions can complement psychological frameworks for reducing HIV risk by introducing unique theoretical understandings about the conditions under which risky decisions are amenable to intervention. Findings from illustrative CEI programs show mixed but generally promising effects of economic interventions on HIV and STI prevalence, HIV testing, HIV medication adherence, and drug use. Conclusion CEI programs can complement psychological interventions for HIV prevention and behavioral risk reduction. To maximize program effectiveness, CEI programs must be designed according to contextual and population-specific factors that may determine intervention applicability and success. PMID:24001243

Conditional economic incentives for reducing HIV risk behaviors: integration of psychology and behavioral economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Operario, Don; Kuo, Caroline; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G; Gálarraga, Omar

2013-09-01

This article reviews psychology and behavioral economic approaches to HIV prevention, and examines the integration and application of these approaches in conditional economic incentive (CEI) programs for reducing HIV risk behavior. We discuss the history of HIV prevention approaches, highlighting the important insights and limitations of psychological theories. We provide an overview of the theoretical tenets of behavioral economics that are relevant to HIV prevention, and utilize CEIs as an illustrative example of how traditional psychological theories and behavioral economics can be combined into new approaches for HIV prevention. Behavioral economic interventions can complement psychological frameworks for reducing HIV risk by introducing unique theoretical understandings about the conditions under which risky decisions are amenable to intervention. Findings from illustrative CEI programs show mixed but generally promising effects of economic interventions on HIV and sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence, HIV testing, HIV medication adherence, and drug use. CEI programs can complement psychological interventions for HIV prevention and behavioral risk reduction. To maximize program effectiveness, CEI programs must be designed according to contextual and population-specific factors that may determine intervention applicability and success. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Causality relationship between energy demand and economic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper attempts to examine the causal relationship between electricity demand and economic growth in Nigeria using data for 1970 – 2003. The study uses the Johansen cointegration VAR approach. The ADF and Phillips – Perron test statistics were used to test for stationarity of the data. It was found that the data were ...

A behavioral economic analysis of the nonmedical use of prescription drugs among young adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Pickover, Alison M; Messina, Bryan G; Correia, Christopher J; Garza, Kimberly B; Murphy, James G

2016-02-01

The nonmedical use of prescription drugs is a widely recognized public health issue, and young adults are particularly vulnerable to their use. Behavioral economic drug purchase tasks capture an individual's strength of desire and motivation for a particular drug. We examined young adult prescription drug purchase and consumption patterns using hypothetical behavioral economic purchase tasks for prescription sedatives/tranquilizers, stimulants, and opiate pain relievers. We also examined relations between demand, use frequency, and Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th ed.; DSM-5) substance use disorder (SUD) symptoms, and sex differences in these relations. Undergraduate students who endorsed past-year prescription drug use (N = 393) completed an online questionnaire for course credit. Measures assessed substance use frequency and DSM-5 SUD symptoms. Hypothetical purchase tasks for sedatives, stimulants, and pain relievers assessed participants' consumption and expenditure patterns for these substances across 25 prices. Past-year prescription sedative, stimulant, and pain reliever use was endorsed by 138, 258, and 189 participants, respectively. Among these users, consumption for their respective substance decreased as a function of ascending price, as expected. Demand indices for a prescription drug were associated with each other and with use frequency and SUD symptoms, with variability across substances but largely not by sex. In addition, demand for prescription pain relievers differentially predicted symptoms independent of use, with differences for females and males. In conclusion, hypothetical consumption and expenditure patterns for prescription drugs were generally well described by behavioral economic demand curves, and the observed associations with use and SUD symptoms provide support for the utility of prescription drug purchase tasks. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved.

The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d' Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-01-01

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

THE IMPACT OF CREDIT AND CAPITAL SUPPORTS ON ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR OF FARM HOUSEHOLDS: A HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC APPROACH

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Bernardus Bala de Rosari

2014-07-01

Full Text Available This research aimed at analysing the demand and allocation of credit and capital supports by farm household and impact on production, consumption, and investment. The research was conducted in East Nusa Tenggara Timur (ENT Province, one of targeted region of credit and capital supports policy of the government. Data collection was conducted from April to June 2013 by sampling for 178 households of farmers in Kupang District and Timor Tengah Selatan (TTS District. The result of this research showed that the allocation of credit and capital supports caused increaseof cattle production, consumption expenditure, and investment. The usage of credit and capital supports was depend on economical situation of the household itself. The decision of farm household on using credit and capital supports had impact on overall economical behavior of household, i.e. production, consumption and investment behavior. The transmission use was reciprocally interacted. Finally, the policy of credit and capital supports scheme for farmers should be adjusted with the context of farm household economics.

Behavioral economic analysis of cue-elicited craving for tobacco: a virtual reality study.

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Acker, John; MacKillop, James

2013-08-01

Subjective craving is a prominent construct in the study of tobacco motivation; yet, the precise measurement of tobacco craving poses several difficulties. A behavioral economic approach to understanding drug motivation imports concepts and methods from economics to improve the assessment of craving. Using an immersive virtual reality (VR) cue reactivity paradigm, this study tested the hypothesis that, compared with neutral cues, tobacco cues would result in significant increases in subjective craving and diverse aspects of demand for tobacco in a community sample of 47 regular smokers. In addition, the study examined these motivational indices in relation to a dual-component delay and cigarette consumption self-administration paradigm. In response to the VR tobacco cues, significant increases were observed for tobacco craving and the demand indices of Omax (i.e., maximum total expenditure toward cigarettes) and Breakpoint (i.e., price at which consumption is completely suppressed), whereas a significant decrease was observed for Elasticity (i.e., lower cigarette price sensitivity). Continuous analyses revealed trend-level inverse associations between Omax and Intensity in relation to delay duration and significant positive associations between subjective craving, Omax, and Elasticity in relation to the number of cigarettes purchased. The results from this study provide further evidence for the utility of behavioral economic concepts and methods in understanding smoking motivation. These data also reveal the incremental contribution of behavioral economic indices beyond subjective craving in predicting in vivo cigarette consumption. Relationships to previous studies and methodological considerations are discussed.

OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) oil demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huntington, H.G.

1993-01-01

Econometric response surfaces for nine different world oil models are estimated for aggregate oil demand with in the developed countries of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The estimates are based upon scenario results reported for the 1989-2010 period in a recent model comparison study. The response surface approach provides a parsimonious summary of model responses. It enables one to estimate long-run price elasticities directly rather than to infer such responses from 20-year cross-scenario results. It also shows more directly the significant effect of initial demand conditions (in 1988) on future oil demand growth. Due to the dynamic nature of the oil demand response, past prices exert a strongly positive effect on future oil demands in some models, but little or even negative effect in other models. On the basis of this finding, we urge demand modellers to be much more explicit about what their systems reveal about the extent of disequilibrium embedded in their model's starting oil demand conditions. (author)

Holidays in lights: Tracking cultural patterns in demand for energy services

Science.gov (United States)

Román, Miguel O.; Stokes, Eleanor C.

2015-06-01

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

Holiday in Lights: Tracking Cultural Patterns in Demand for Energy Services

Science.gov (United States)

Roman, Miguel O.; Stokes, Eleanor C.

2015-01-01

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

Improving utilization of and retention in PMTCT services: can behavioral economics help?

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Nicholas Kenji; Buttenheim, Alison M

2013-10-10

The most recent strategic call to action of the World Health Organization sets the elimination of pediatric HIV as a goal. While recent efforts have focused on building infrastructure and ensuring access to high-quality treatment, we must now turn our focus to the behavior change needed to eliminate vertical transmission. We make the case for the application of concepts from the field of behavioral economics to prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) programs to more effectively address demand-side issues of uptake and retention. We introduce five concepts from the field of behavioral economics and discuss their application to PMTCT programs: 1) Mentor mothers who come from similar circumstances as PMTCT patients can serve as social references who provide temporally salient modeling of utilization of services and adherence to treatment. 2) Economic incentives, like cell phone minutes or food vouchers, that reward adherence to PMTCT protocols leverage present bias, the observation that people are generally biased toward immediate versus future awards. 3) Default bias, our preference for the default option, is already being used in many countries in the form of opt-out testing, and could be expanded to all PMTCT programs. 4) We are hardwired to avoid loss more than to pursue an equivalent gain. PMTCT programs can take advantage of loss aversion through the use of commitment contracts that incentivize mothers to return to the clinic in order to avoid both reputational and financial loss. Eliminating vertical transmission of HIV is an ambitious goal. To close the remaining gap, innovations are needed to address demand for PMTCT services. Behavioral economics offers a set of tools that can be engineered into PMTCT programs to increase uptake and improve retention with minimal investment.

Economic Booms and Risky Sexual Behavior: Evidence from Zambian Copper Mining Cities

OpenAIRE

Nicholas Wilson

2010-01-01

Existing studies suggest that individual and household level economic shocks affect the demand for and supply of risky sex. However, little evidence exists on the effects of an aggregate shock on equilibrium risky sexual behavior. This paper examines the effects of the early twenty-first century copper boom on risky sexual behavior in Zambian copper mining cities. The results indicate that the copper boom substantially reduced rates of transactional sex and multiple partnerships in copper min...

(Non-) behavioral economics: a programmatic assessment

OpenAIRE

Güth, Werner

2007-01-01

Economic theory has evolved without paying proper attention to behavioral approaches, especially to social, economic, and cognitive psychology. This has recently changed by including behavioral economics courses in many doctoral study programs. Although this new development is most welcome, the typical topics of the behavioral economics courses are not truly behavioral. More specifically, we question whether neoclassical repairs or game fitting exercises as well as more or less mechanic adapt...

Economic Rebalancing and Electricity Demand in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

He, Gang [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Advanced Light Source (ALS); Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States); Lin, Jiang [Energy Foundation, Beijing (China); Yuan, Alexandria [Energy Foundation, Beijing (China)

2015-11-01

Understanding the relationship between economic growth and electricity use is essential for power systems planning. This need is particularly acute now in China, as the Chinese economy is going through a transition to a more consumption and service oriented economy. This study uses 20 years of provincial data on gross domestic product (GDP) and electricity consumption to examine the relationship between these two factors. We observe a plateauing effect of electricity consumption in the richest provinces, as the electricity demand saturates and the economy develops and moves to a more service-based economy. There is a wide range of forecasts for electricity use in 2030, ranging from 5,308 to 8,292 kWh per capita, using different estimating functions, as well as in existing studies. It is therefore critical to examine more carefully the relationship between electricity use and economic development, as China transitions to a new growth phase that is likely to be less energy and resource intensive. The results of this study suggest that policymakers and power system planners in China should seriously re-evaluate power demand projections and the need for new generation capacity to avoid over-investment that could lead to stranded generation assets.

The possibility of behavioral new institutional economics

OpenAIRE

菊沢, 研宗

2011-01-01

Behavioral economics has recently been the subject of considerable research with the consequence that theories in behavioral economics and finance have complementarily developed to comprise a research field known as 'behavioral finance'. Subsequent studies seeking to integrate game theory and behavioral economics come under the 'behavioral game theory' umbrella, while those wanting to integrate contract theory and behavioral economics fall under 'behavioral contract theory'. Given such circum...

Micro-Economic Estimation On The Demand Function For ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The article focused on the estimation of the prostitution demand behaviour in Adamawa State. An econometric model was specified based on economic theory and confronted with both primary and secondary data. Ordinary least square multiple regression techniques were adopted and the linear model was chosen as a ...

Behavioral Economics: A Maverick Guide

OpenAIRE

Hugh Schwartz

2014-01-01

These are the notes from the first half of a course in behavioral economics offered in Uruguay in November 2014. This part of the course, entirely verbal, was aimed at outlining the essentials of behavioral economics. The principal assignments were from the second edition of Edward Cartwright’s Behavioral Economics. The second part of the course, taught by Dr. Martin Egozcue, is not included. It emphasized prospect theory, mental accounts and inter-temporal decision making, and featured subst...

Demand and withdraw behaviors in couples with a history of infidelity.

Science.gov (United States)

Balderrama-Durbin, Christina M; Allen, Elizabeth S; Rhoades, Galena K

2012-02-01

Although relationship distress and dissolution are common consequences of sexual involvement outside a committed relationship, there is little empirical information regarding communication behaviors of couples who have experienced extradyadic involvement (EDI). This study examined male and female demand and withdraw behaviors in videotaped conflict discussions among 170 married or seriously dating couples categorized into 3 groups: those without a history of sexual EDI, those with a history of sexual EDI that was known to the other partner, and those with a history of "unknown" (undisclosed or undiscovered) sexual EDI. Both men and women in a relationship where there was at least one unknown EDI demonstrated the highest levels of demand behaviors. Furthermore, demand behaviors were higher for participating partners (those engaging in an outside sexual relationship) in relationships with an unknown EDI compared with participating partners in relationships with a known EDI. Conversely, demand behaviors were higher among nonparticipating partners in relationships with known EDI, compared to with nonparticipating partners in relationships with unknown EDI. Withdraw behaviors demonstrated a less pronounced and less consistent pattern of elevation by EDI group, and role within EDI, compared with demand behaviors. Clinical and relational implications for these findings are discussed.

A crowdsourced nickel-and-dime approach to analog OBM research: A behavioral economic framework for understanding workforce attrition.

Science.gov (United States)

Henley, Amy J; DiGennaro Reed, Florence D; Reed, Derek D; Kaplan, Brent A

2016-09-01

Incentives are a popular method to achieve desired employee performance; however, research on optimal incentive magnitude is lacking. Behavioral economic demand curves model persistence of responding in the face of increasing cost and may be suitable to examine the reinforcing value of incentives on work performance. The present use-inspired basic study integrated an experiential human operant task within a crowdsourcing platform to evaluate the applicability of behavioral economics for quantifying changes in workforce attrition. Participants included 88 Amazon Mechanical Turk Workers who earned either a $0.05 or $0.10 incentive for completing a progressively increasing response requirement. Analyses revealed statistically significant differences in breakpoint between the two groups. Additionally, a novel translation of the Kaplan-Meier survival-curve analyses for use within a demand curve framework allowed for examination of elasticity of workforce attrition. Results indicate greater inelastic attrition in the $0.05 group. We discuss the benefits of a behavioral economic approach to modeling employee behavior, how the metrics obtained from the elasticity of workforce attrition analyses (e.g., P max ) may be used to set goals for employee behavior while balancing organizational costs, and how economy type may have influenced observed outcomes. © 2016 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Behavioral Economics

OpenAIRE

Sendhil Mullainathan; Richard H. Thaler

2000-01-01

Behavioral Economics is the combination of psychology and economics that investigates what happens in markets in which some of the agents display human limitations and complications. We begin with a preliminary question about relevance. Does some combination of market forces, learning and evolution render these human qualities irrelevant? No. Because of limits of arbitrage less than perfect agents survive and influence market outcomes. We then discuss three important ways in which humans devi...

Economic growth and energy demand in Brazil from 1930 to 1980

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Theis, I.M.

1988-10-01

There are enough evidences that economic growth and energy demand are closely related indeed. These evidences show that the growth of the economic activity calls for greater energy inputs. The Brazilian case is similar to the other industrialized economies, in spite of our industrialization process being started only in the 1930. Two periods excelled as phases of quick and accelerated growth of the Economic Product: the later fifties and the famous miracle from 1968 to 1973. During those periods the demand for energy in Brazil increased to amounts previously unthinkable. More remarkable, however, is that, after those phases of accelerated growth, Brazilian economy had changed the consumption profile considerably: while, until 1968 firewood was the most important resource, since then petroleum has taken this position. (author). 213 refs, 115 tabs

Quantifying the impact of exogenous non-economic factors on UK transport oil demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broadstock, David C.; Hunt, Lester C.

2010-01-01

This paper attempts to quantify the impact of exogenous non-economic factors on UK transport oil demand (in addition to income, price, and fuel efficiency) by estimating the demand relationship for oil transport for 1960-2007 using the structural time series model. From this, the relative impact on UK transport oil demand from income, price, and efficiency are quantified. Moreover, the relative impact of the non-economic factors is also quantified, based on the premise that the estimated stochastic trend represents behavioural responses to changes in socio-economic factors and changes in lifestyles and attitudes. The estimated elasticities for income, price and efficiency are 0.6, -0.1, and -0.3, respectively, and it is shown that for efficiency and price the overall contribution is relatively small, whereas the contribution from income and non-economic factors is relatively large. This has important implications for policy makers keen to reduce transport oil consumption and associated emissions, but not willing to reduce the trend rate of economic growth. Taxes and improved efficiency only have a limited impact; hence, a major thrust of policy should perhaps be on educating and informing consumers to persuade them to change their lifestyle and attitudes and thus reduce their consumption through the non-economic instruments route.

Quantifying the impact of exogenous non-economic factors on UK transport oil demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Broadstock, David C.; Hunt, Lester C. [Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC) and Research Group on Lifestyles Values and Environment (RESOLVE), Department of Economics, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH (United Kingdom)

2010-03-15

This paper attempts to quantify the impact of exogenous non-economic factors on UK transport oil demand (in addition to income, price, and fuel efficiency) by estimating the demand relationship for oil transport for 1960-2007 using the structural time series model. From this, the relative impact on UK transport oil demand from income, price, and efficiency are quantified. Moreover, the relative impact of the non-economic factors is also quantified, based on the premise that the estimated stochastic trend represents behavioural responses to changes in socio-economic factors and changes in lifestyles and attitudes. The estimated elasticities for income, price and efficiency are 0.6, -0.1, and -0.3, respectively, and it is shown that for efficiency and price the overall contribution is relatively small, whereas the contribution from income and non-economic factors is relatively large. This has important implications for policy makers keen to reduce transport oil consumption and associated emissions, but not willing to reduce the trend rate of economic growth. Taxes and improved efficiency only have a limited impact; hence, a major thrust of policy should perhaps be on educating and informing consumers to persuade them to change their lifestyle and attitudes and thus reduce their consumption through the non-economic instruments route. (author)

Medium-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenfeng; Bao, Fangmin; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Mao, Yubin; Wang, Jiangbo; Liu, Junhui

2018-06-01

Electric demand forecasting is a basic work to ensure the safe operation of power system. Based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this paper introduces Prognoz Platform 7.2 intelligent adaptive modeling platform, and constructs the economic electricity transmission model that considers the economic development scenarios and the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure to predict the region's annual electricity demand, and the accurate prediction of the whole society's electricity consumption is realized. Firstly, based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this dissertation attempts to find the economic indicator variables that drive the most economical growth of electricity consumption and availability, and build an annual regional macroeconomic forecast model that takes into account the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure. Secondly, it innovatively put forward the economic electricity directed conduction theory and constructed the economic power transfer function to realize the group forecast of the primary industry + rural residents living electricity consumption, urban residents living electricity, the second industry electricity consumption, the tertiary industry electricity consumption; By comparing with the actual value of economy and electricity in Henan province in 2016, the validity of EETM model is proved, and the electricity consumption of the whole province from 2017 to 2018 is predicted finally.

ENTREPRENEURSIPH IN ROMANIA. A BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS PERSPECTIVE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neațu Alina-Maria

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Economics provides insight into how entrepreneurship influences growth and development and, on the other hand, how the macro structure of a region or country impacts the type and abundance of entrepreneurship. Economic analysis provides insights for scholars, guides practitioners and policymakers. From a broader perspective, economic theories guide the understanding of human behaviors and the constant quest toward realization, comprehension and improvement of human condition. Moreover, behavioral economics combines insights of psychology, sociology and economics in trying to better understand and predict human decision-making. At the intersection of economic studies with social sciences, behavioral economics succeeds to demonstrate, using laboratory tests and experiments, that on a shorter term people are quite capable to perform profitable economic computations and adopt rational behaviors, but on a long term run they easily become fallible in performing rational mental accounting and are vulnerable to several factors such as emotions, certain mass-manipulation techniques, lack of self control or procrastination, etc. Extended research in the field of behavioral economics reports many other various behavioral anomalies that may have the ability to explain seemingly irrational and unpredictable responses of individuals, in general, and entrepreneurs, in particular – especially when finding themselves in conditions of risk, uncertainty or incomplete information. Furthermore, the elevated consistency of these abnormalities suggests that they are divergent only to our traditional models, but that they could otherwise be the norm. The present article seeks to explain how such insights from behavioral economics may help us better understand and enhance our perspective on entrepreneurship, what are some of the most frequent biases characteristic to entrepreneurial behavior and decision-making, accounting as most notable for the field of

Economic Analysis of Urban Fuelwood Demand - The case of Harare in Zimbabwe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chambwera, M.

2004-01-01

This study carries out an economic analysis of the demand for fuelwood in urban areas using Harare, the capital city of Zimbabwe, as a case study. The demand for fuelwood in urban areas is one of the causes of several environmental and health problems in Africa, where the up to 90% of energy

Wind Power Project Repowering: History, Economics, and Demand (Presentation)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lantz, E.

2015-01-01

This presentation summarizes a related NREL technical report and seeks to capture the current status of wind power project repowering in the U.S. and globally, analyze the economic and financial decision drivers that surround repowering, and to quantify the level and timing of demand for new turbine equipment to supply the repowering market.

Behavioral Economics of Education

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koch, Alexander Karl; Nafziger, Julia; Nielsen, Helena Skyt

2015-01-01

-dimensional rather than one-dimensional. Explicitly accounting for soft skills often implies departing from the standard economic model by integrating concepts studied in behavioral and experimental economics, such as self-control, willingness to compete, intrinsic motivation, and self-confidence. We review how...

Essays on economic development, energy demand, and the environment

Science.gov (United States)

Medlock, Kenneth Barry, III

2000-10-01

The rapid expansion of industry at the outset of economic development and the subsequent growth of the transportation and residential and commercial sectors dictate both the rate at which energy demand increases and the composition of primary fuel sources used to meet secondary requirements. Each of these factors each has an impact on the pollution problems that nations may face. Growth in consumer wealth, however, appears to eventually lead to a shift in priorities. In particular, the importance of the environment begins to take precedent over the acquisition of goods. Accordingly, cleaner energy alternatives are sought out. The approach taken here is to determine the energy profile of an average nation, and apply those results to a model of economic growth. Dematerialization of production and saturation of consumer bundles results in declining rates of growth of energy demand in broadly defined end-use sectors. The effects of technological change in fossil fuel efficiency, fossil fuel recovery, and 'backstop' energy resources on economic growth and the emissions of carbon dioxide are then analyzed. A central planner is assumed to optimize the consumption of goods and services subject to capital and resource constraints. Slight perturbations in the parameters are used to determine their local elasticities with respect to different endogenous variables, and give an indication of the effects of changes in the various assumptions.

Using crowdsourcing to examine behavioral economic measures of alcohol value and proportionate alcohol reinforcement.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Vanessa; Amlung, Michael; Kaplan, Brent A; Reed, Derek D; Petker, Tashia; MacKillop, James

2017-08-01

Online crowdsourcing websites such as Amazon's Mechanical Turk (MTurk) are increasingly being used in addictions research. However, there is a relative paucity of such research examining the validity of administering behavioral economic alcohol-related measures, via an online crowdsourcing platform. This study sought to validate an alcohol purchase task (APT) for assessing demand and a questionnaire measure of proportionate alcohol reinforcement, using an online sample of participants recruited via MTurk. Participants (N = 865, 59% female) were recruited via MTurk to complete the APT, proportionate alcohol reinforcement questionnaire, Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), and demographics. Responses on the APT were highly systematic (crowdsourcing websites for investigating behavioral economic determinants of alcohol misuse. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Evaluation of socio-economic factors affecting the demand for health

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Abdosaleh Jafari

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Individual health has been proved to be under the influence of various factors such as the use of health care services, diet, smoking and alcohol, physical environment, and health-related behaviors. Therefore, the main determinants of health are factors such as income, education, and access to health services, and systematic changes in these factors lead to socio-economic injustice in health. The present study was carried out through library and internet search. Medline and Google Scholar databases were also utilized. Combining Contents and Results: According to the present study, an increase in health input expenses would inevitably lead to aggravation of the health situation and decrease in income would result in the worst health status of the poor. Moreover, people with higher education use less health inputs; however, they enjoy higher status than those with lower educational levels. Conclusion: Health demand approach provides only a part of the information needed for policy-makers and decision-makers in health system. Theoretical and empirical analyses of the health claim could indicate that policy actions are likely to be more effective in overcoming barriers to health but are not capable of determining which one is likely to be more cost-effective . The demand for information about the health only provides the necessary tools about the benefits of special policy making decisions. So the tool should be combined with other techniques including cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses.

Brazilian Alcohol Program (Proalcool): economic re-evaluation and demand adjustments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Motta, R.S. da; Rocha Ferreira, L. da

1987-01-01

The aim of this paper is to discuss the economic impact on the Brazilian National Alcohol Programme caused by changes in the energy scenery, in view of recent oil price fall in the international market, and evaluate the necessary adjustments of the Programme according to the new Brazilian economic reality. The economic analysis concludes that the alcohol production, considering current production capacity and its investments, could be economically feasible at international oil prices near US$ 30.00. Excluding investments, its feasibility would be between US$ 18.00 and US$ 20.00 per equivalent oil barrel. Based on these conclusions, proposals for adjusting the PROALCOOL are discussed, including alternative pricing, fiscal and credit policies to control the alcohol-fuel demand. (author)

BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS AND THE NEED OF PSYCHOLOGY IN ECONOMIC RESEARCH

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Andreea GRADINARU

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The turning point in economic science has now come, marked especially by triggering the biggest crisis since the Great Depression of '29-'33, has called into question the need to reconsider the status of economic science and finding ways in which it can increase its practical foundations. In the elaboration of this study I’ve took into account the fact that beyond any abstract, formal and mathematical model, economics is a science, having the man in its center. Furthermore, every economic process is based on the human being. But the way individuals behave does not follow precisely the pattern predicted by classical and neoclassical models, but most of the time they are making decisions under the influence of psychological factors. Starting from these assumptions I considered important to highlight a real need for psychology in economic research. Therefore, the aim of this work is exclusively theoretical meant to show that the study of psychological factors is necessary in economic research, because it allows a better explanation of the economic problems and lead to obtaining results closer to reality than those who only take into consideration economic factors. In this way I appealed to behavioral economics. This represents a new trend of economic thinking that reunites psychology with economy. The thing that I observed after finishing the study is that behavioral economics can increase the explanatory power of economics by providing more realistic psychological bases, because human behavior is not only the subject matter of economics but psychology too.

Applying Behavioral Economics to Public Health Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Matjasko, Jennifer L.; Cawley, John H.; Baker-Goering, Madeleine M.; Yokum, David V.

2016-01-01

Behavioral economics provides an empirically informed perspective on how individuals make decisions, including the important realization that even subtle features of the environment can have meaningful impacts on behavior. This commentary provides examples from the literature and recent government initiatives that incorporate concepts from behavioral economics in order to improve health, decision making, and government efficiency. The examples highlight the potential for behavioral economics to improve the effectiveness of public health policy at low cost. Although incorporating insights from behavioral economics into public health policy has the potential to improve population health, its integration into government public health programs and policies requires careful design and continual evaluation of such interventions. Limitations and drawbacks of the approach are discussed. PMID:27102853

Resource Limitations, the Demand for Education and Economic Growth--A Macroeconomic View.

Science.gov (United States)

Stam, Jerome M.

To develop a theoretical framework for explaining the observed change in demand for human skill and knowledge that occurs with economic growth, a macroeconomic analysis was made of economic variables which are influenced by political, social, and cultural factors. In the three-dimensional framework, total output (Y) of all final goods and services…

Economic booms and risky sexual behavior: evidence from Zambian copper mining cities.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Nicholas

2012-12-01

Existing studies suggest that individual and household level economic shocks affect the demand for and supply of risky sex. However, little evidence exists on the effects of an aggregate shock on equilibrium risky sexual behavior. This paper examines the effects of the early twenty-first century copper boom on risky sexual behavior in Zambian copper mining cities. The results suggest that the copper boom substantially reduced rates of transactional sex and multiple partnerships in copper mining cities. These effects were partly concentrated among young adults and copper boom induced in-migration to mining cities appears to have contributed to these reductions. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Energy demand evolution in Romania between 1995 - 2020 in accordance with the socio-economic adjustment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popescu, A.; Popovici, D.; Popescu, M.; Valcereanu, Gh.; Oprea, G.; Velcescu, O.

1996-01-01

Economic and social development of Romania can not be achieved without an increasing energy consumption (in fuels, electricity and thermal energy). The energy supply assessment requires the knowledge of economic, technological, demographic and social development forecasting in accordance with the political transformations in Romania. This paper presents energy demand forecast in accordance with different scenarios of the country's macro-economical development. The future evolution of energy demand is emphasized considering the energy efficiency improvement and the energy conservation policies.(author). 6 figs., 2 tabs., 4 refs

APPLICATIONS OF BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS IN UNIVERSITY LIFE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GEORGE NICULESCU

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In the first part of the article I have dealt with the role and place of behavioral economics in the economic sciences. Classical economic theories are criticized by the behavioral economy. We think we are rational beings and that we make logical decisions based on the information we have at our disposal. In fact, we have our own cognitive limitations that can lead to hasty decisions or confusing judgments; the real individual is a complex person, with actions that result in failures and incomprehensible behaviors for the economics Behavioral economics is trying to explain why individuals often make irrational choices, and why decisions they take do not follow exactly the patterns predicted by classical and neoclassical economic models. This paper is trying to assess the individual behavior involved in the decision making process in the university space. This article describes aloso a series of experiments on behavioral economics. The experiments are from university life and contest the hypothesis of the perfectly rational person's existence in making decisions and the neoclassical economic theories and models that are based only on the premise of the existence of homo oeconomicus rationalis. Observations and experiments conducted with students at Constantin Brancusi University in Târgu-Jiu are relevant in challenging the hypothesis of perfect rationality, preference stability, perfect information and market efficiency. The research method used in this article is the experiment. Study results are useful for academic management.

Are prices enough? The economics of material demand reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Aidt, Toke; Jia, Lili; Low, Hamish

2017-05-01

Recent policy proposals to achieve carbon targets have emphasized material demand reduction strategies aimed at achieving material efficiency. We provide a bridge between the way economists and engineers think about efficiency. We use the tools of economics to think about policies directed at material efficiency and to evaluate the role and rationale for such policies. The analysis highlights when prices (or taxes) can be used to induce changes in material use and when taxes may not work. We argue that the role of taxes is limited by concerns about their distributional consequences, by international trade and the lack of international agreement on carbon prices, and by investment failures. This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'.

Behavioral economics and diabetic eye exams.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Andrew M; Liu, Peggy J; Muir, Kelly W; Waxman, Evan L

2018-07-01

Diabetic retinopathy is a common microvascular complication of diabetes mellitus and is the leading cause of new blindness among working-age adults in the United States. Timely intervention to prevent vision loss is possible with early detection by regular eye examinations. Unfortunately, adherence to recommended annual diabetic eye exams is poor. Public health interventions have targeted traditional barriers to care, such as cost and transportation, with limited success. Behavioral economics provides an additional framework of concepts and tools to understand low screening rates and to promote regular diabetic eye exams for populations at risk. In particular, behavioral economics outlines biases and heuristics that affect decision-making and underlie pervasive barriers to care, such as not viewing diabetic eye exams as a priority or perceiving oneself as too healthy to need an examination. In this review, we examine the literature on the use of behavioral economics interventions to promote regular diabetic eye exams. From the results of the included studies, we outline how concepts from behavioral economics can improve eye examination rates. In particular, the default bias, present bias, and self-serving bias play a significant role in precluding regular diabetic eye examinations. Potential tools to mitigate these biases include leveraging default options, using reminder messages, providing behavioral coaching, applying commitment contracts, offering financial incentives, and personalizing health messages. When combined with traditional public health campaigns, insights from behavioral economics can improve understanding of pervasive barriers to care and offer additional strategies to promote regular preventive eye care for patients with diabetes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Economic Holobiont: Influence of Parasites, Microbiota and Chemosignals on Economic Behavior

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Petr Houdek

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The article is a perspective on utilization of microorganisms and chemosignals in studying human economic behavior. Research in biological roots of economic development has already confirmed that parasitic pressure influenced the creation and development of cultural norms and institutions. However, other effects of microorganisms on human groups and individual decision-making and behavior are heavily understudied. The perspective discusses how parasitic infections, sexually transmitted organisms and microbiota (i.e., “human holobiont” could causally influence risk-seeking behavior, impulsivity, social dominance, empathy, political views and gender differences. As a case study, the parasite Toxoplasma gondii and its influence on economic preferences, personal characteristics and human appearance are examined. I also briefly review how chemosignals influence decision-making, particularly in the social preferences domain. I mention some predictions that arise from the paradigm of economic holobiont for the economic science. The conclusion summarizes limitations of the discussed findings and the stated speculations.

The behavioral economics of health and health care.

Science.gov (United States)

Rice, Thomas

2013-01-01

People often make decisions in health care that are not in their best interest, ranging from failing to enroll in health insurance to which they are entitled, to engaging in extremely harmful behaviors. Traditional economic theory provides a limited tool kit for improving behavior because it assumes that people make decisions in a rational way, have the mental capacity to deal with huge amounts of information and choice, and have tastes endemic to them and not open to manipulation. Melding economics with psychology, behavioral economics acknowledges that people often do not act rationally in the economic sense. It therefore offers a potentially richer set of tools than provided by traditional economic theory to understand and influence behaviors. Only recently, however, has it been applied to health care. This article provides an overview of behavioral economics, reviews some of its contributions, and shows how it can be used in health care to improve people's decisions and health.

Modeling the Economic Behavior of Households within the Context of Development of Economic Thought

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Ivanov Roman V.

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of the publication is to study formation of the household economic behavior modeling in the context of development of economic thought and methods of the economic-mathematical modeling. The study was carried out under the assumption that, when studying the development of theoretical and methodological foundations of the economic behavior of households one must take into account not only the history of development of economic theory, but also the transformation of attitudes in other areas of human knowledge, in particular the paradigm shift in scientific thinking. It has been specified that the massive use of mathematical methods in economics is associated with formation of the marginal theory and at the same time – with the proliferation of the marginal analysis. At the present stage, the economic behavior of households is being analyzed in the terms of concepts such as neoclassicism, institutionalism and behaviorism. But by dividing the concepts of «individual» and «household», it can be argued that precisely the institutionalism in conjunction with synergistic approach provide the basis for elaboration of strategies for the economic behavior of households, ensuring their economic security.

Holidays in lights: Tracking cultural patterns in demand for energy services

OpenAIRE

Rom?n, Miguel O.; Stokes, Eleanor C.

2015-01-01

Abstract Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro?level has identified economic activity, power generation and technol...

The Impact of Economic Parameter Uncertainty Growth on Regional Energy Demand Assessment

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Olga Vasilyevna Mazurova

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the forecasting studies based on the energy demand and prices in the region in terms of the complex interconnections between economy (and energy and the growth of uncertainty of the future development of the country and territories. The authors propose a methodological approach, which combines the assessment of the price elasticity of energy demand with the optimization of energy and fuel regional supply. In this case, the price elasticity of demand is determined taking into account the comparison of cost-effectiveness of using different types of fuel and energy by different consumers. The originality of the proposed approach consists in simulating the behaviour of suppliers’ (energy companies and large customers’ (power plants, boiler rooms, industry, transport, population depending on energy price changes, the existing and new technologies, energy-saving activities and restrictions on fuel supplies. To take into account the uncertainty of future economic and energy conditions, some parameters such as prospective technical and economic parameters, price, technological parameters are set as the intervals of possible values with different probability levels. This approach allows making multivariate studies with different combinations of the expected conditions and receiving as a result the range of the projected values of studied indicators. The multivariate calculations show that the fuel demand has a nonlinear dependence on the consumer characteristics, pricing, projection horizon, and the nature of the future conditions uncertainty. The authors have shown that this effect can be significant and should be considered in the forecasts of the development of fuel and energy sector. The methodological approach and quantitative evaluation can be used to improve the economic and energy development strategies of the country and regions

Behavior of Serbian Tourists During Economic Crisis: Two Empirical Researches

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Marija Najdić

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Tourist’s behavior research is focused on understanding and explaining the factors that affect tourist’s preferences and holiday destination choice. In this paper is analyzed the impact of the global economic crisis on the preferences toward leisure travels of the residents from Serbia. The paper is based on researches conducted in 2006-2009, through travel agencies and in 2011 on the general population major of age with support of TNS Medium Gallupa. Better understanding of the perception process and how tourists react to certain factor can give more accurate information on the dynamics of tourism demand and its dependence on tourist’s perception.

Behavioral economics: Past, present, and future

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Richard H. Thaler

2018-04-01

Full Text Available “Behavioral economics” attempts to incorporate insights from other social sciences, especially psychology, in order to enrich the standard economic model. The interest in the psychology of human behavior returns economics to its earliest roots. Adam Smith talked about such key concepts as loss aversion, overconfidence, and self-control. Nevertheless, the modern version of behavioral economics introduced in the 1980s met with resistance by some economists, who preferred to retain the standard neo-classical model. They introduced several arguments for why psychology could safely be ignored. In this essay I show that these arguments have been rejected, both theoretically and empirically, so it is time to move on. The new approach should include two different kinds of theories: normative models that characterize the optimal solution to specific problems and descriptive models that capture how humans actually behave. The latter theories will incorporate some variables I call supposedly irrelevant factors, which can improve the explanatory power of economic models.

Monthly electric energy demand forecasting with neural networks and Fourier series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez-Romera, E.; Jaramillo-Moran, M.A.; Carmona-Fernandez, D.

2008-01-01

Medium-term electric energy demand forecasting is a useful tool for grid maintenance planning and market research of electric energy companies. Several methods, such as ARIMA, regression or artificial intelligence, have been usually used to carry out those predictions. Some approaches include weather or economic variables, which strongly influence electric energy demand. Economic variables usually influence the general series trend, while weather provides a periodic behavior because of its seasonal nature. This work investigates the periodic behavior of the Spanish monthly electric demand series, obtained by rejecting the trend from the consumption series. A novel hybrid approach is proposed: the periodic behavior is forecasted with a Fourier series while the trend is predicted with a neural network. Satisfactory results have been obtained, with a lower than 2% MAPE, which improve those reached when only neural networks or ARIMA were used for the same purpose. (author)

Economic profitability analysis of demand side management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheen, J.N.

2005-01-01

This study considers both the internal and external costs of the utility in deriving the avoided capacity cost (ACC) and avoided operating cost (AOC) induced in an electric utility caused by the implementation of a demand side management program (DSM). In calculating the ACC, a multiple objective linear programming model is developed. Meanwhile, the AOC is calculated by considering the differences between the total and specific time period energy consumption ratios before and after the implementation of the DSM program. This study also develops an economic analysis method using Net Present Value and Pay Back Year models to assess the economic profitability of implementing a DSM program from a participant's point of view. The design and construction of a partial load leveling eutectic salt Cooling Energy Storage (CES) air conditioning system in a target office building in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, is discussed in order to simulate the cost benefit of the CES system from the perspective of the utility and from that of the participant. The results confirm the effectiveness of the developed models in simulating the economic benefits of implementing a DSM program from the perspectives of both the utility and the participant

The role of behavioral economics and behavioral decision making in Americans' retirement savings decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Knoll, Melissa A Z

2010-01-01

Traditional economic theory posits that people make decisions by maximizing a utility function in which all of the relevant constraints and preferences are included and weighed appropriately. Behavioral economists and decision-making researchers, however, are interested in how people make decisions in the face of incomplete information, limited cognitive resources, and decision biases. Empirical findings in the areas of behavioral economics and judgment and decision making (JDM) demonstrate departures from the notion that man is economically rational, illustrating instead that people often act in ways that are economically suboptimal. This article outlines findings from the JDM and behavioral-economics literatures that highlight the many behavioral impediments to saving that individuals may encounter on their way to financial security. I discuss how behavioral and psychological issues, such as self-control, emotions, and choice architecture can help policymakers understand what factors, aside from purely economic ones, may affect individuals' savings behavior.

Human capital demand in Brazil: The effects of adjustment cost, economic growth, exports and imports

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Joilson Dias

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to learn about the effects of the adjustment costs, economic growth, imports and exports on human capital labor demand. The dynamic model proposed by Sargent (1978 was adjusted to consider three types of human capital: (a one with fundamental education (1–8 years of schooling; (b one with secondary education level (9–11 years of education; (c and one with tertiary education level (12 years or more of schooling. Using state level panel data, the dynamic econometrics estimates showed the following results: (i the labor market adjustment costs are very higher; (ii the adjustment cost for the human capital with intermediary education level is the highest one compared to the others; (iii the states’ economic growth favor those with superior education; (iv the imports seems to favor the demand for those with intermediate education levels; (v the degree of openness does show some weak effect on the demand for human capitals with intermediate education. In sum, the growing demand for human capital with some superior education seems to be more associated to its lower adjustment cost and economic growth; the non-significance of real wage elasticity and high adjustment cost seems to indicate that the human capital with intermediate knowledge is in short supply; hence, economic education policy that increases supply of such human capital are in need.

Economic growth, regional disparities and energy demand in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheng, Yu; Shi, Xunpeng; Zhang, Dandan

2014-01-01

Using the panel data of 27 provinces between 1978 and 2008, we employed a instrumental regression technique to examine the relationship between economic growth, energy demand/production and the related policies in China. The empirical results show that forming a cross-province integrated energy market will in general reduce the response of equilibrium user costs of energy products to their local demand and production, through cross-regional energy transfer (including both energy trade and cross-regional reallocation). In particular, reducing transportation costs and improving marketization level are identified as two important policy instruments to enhance the role of energy market integration. The findings support the argument for a more competitive cross-province energy transfer policies and calls for more developed energy connectivity and associate institutional arrangements within China. These policy implications may also be extended to the East Asia Summit region where energy market integration is being actively promoted. - Highlights: • Development driving energy demand has different impacts on energy prices than others. • EMI will reduce the response of equilibrium energy prices to local demand and production. • Reducing transportation costs and improving marketization level enhance the role of EMI. • More market competition and better physical and institutional connectivity are better. • Policy implications to China may be extended to the East Asia Summit region

Neuroeconomics: Bringing Neuroscience and Economics Together

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Gelengül KOÇASLAN

2010-12-01

Full Text Available There are revealed situations in economics where the key axioms of mainstream theory are violated. Bandwagon, snob and Veblen effects are the examples from the demand theory . Maurice Allais and Daniel Ellsberg have determined the behavior anomalies under risk and uncertainty in 1953 and in 1962 respectively. Deviations from the optimal economic behavior have been argued by several economists and psychologists. Currently the components of economic behavior is being discussed at a neural base by neuroeconomists combining the methods of neuroscience and economics. This study is designed to understand neuroeconomics, its techniques and applications and also it is aimed to better understand the basic motives underlying economic behavior in real life situations

Financial incentives for healthy behavior: ethical safeguards for behavioral economics.

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Lunze, Karsten; Paasche-Orlow, Michael K

2013-06-01

Economic incentives to promote healthy behavior are becoming increasingly common and have been suggested as an approach to decreasing healthcare costs. Ethical concerns about programs with such incentives are that they may contribute to inequities, be coercive, interfere with therapeutic relationships, undermine personal responsibility for health, and decrease social solidarity. Additionally, they may be a source of stigma or discrimination, promote dependence, and be unfair for those already engaged in targeted health behaviors or those who cannot fulfill the incentivized behaviors. Incentive programs need to incorporate appropriate safeguards to monitor these risks and support fairness in offering economic incentives to promote healthy behavior. Copyright © 2013 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Behavioral economics and the ‘new’ paternalism1

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Rostislav Kapeliushnikov

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The paper provides a critical appraisal of the normative program of behavioral economics known as ‘new paternalism’. First, it explores the theoretical foundations of behavioral economics, describes major behavioral anomalies associated with bounded rationality of economic agents and discusses its normative principles and political implications. It then discusses the main empirical and conceptual drawbacks of new paternalism and provides arguments for the alternative non-welfarist normative tradition based on the idea of freedom.

Essays in behavioral economics : Applied game theory and experiments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mermer, A.G.

2014-01-01

Behavioral Economics aims at understanding the decision of economic agents who are not necessarily monetary utility maximizers and accounts for the fact that agents may have other concerns next to economic gain. This thesis contributes to the literature by studying the behavior of economic agents

Behavioral economics strategies for promoting adherence to sleep interventions.

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Stevens, Jack

2015-10-01

Cognitive-behavioral treatment for insomnia and continuous positive airway pressure therapy for obstructive sleep apnea are among the most efficacious sleep interventions. Unfortunately, adherence levels are disappointingly low for these interventions. Behavioral economics offers a promising framework for promoting adherence, often through relatively brief and straightforward strategies. The assumptions, goals, and key strategies of behavioral economics will be introduced. These strategies include providing social norms information, changing defaults, using the compromise effect, utilizing commitment devices, and establishing lottery-based systems. Then, this review will highlight specific behavioral economic approaches to promote patient adherence for three major sleep interventions: 1) behavioral treatment for pediatric insomnia, 2) cognitive-behavioral treatment for adult insomnia, and 3) continuous positive airway pressure for obstructive sleep apnea. Next, behavioral economic strategies will be discussed as ways to improve health care provider adherence to clinical practice guidelines regarding appropriate prescribing of hypnotics and ordering sleep-promoting practices for hospitalized inpatients. Finally, possible concerns that readers may have about behavioral economics strategies, including their efficacy, feasibility, and sustainability, will be addressed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pricing of common cosmetic surgery procedures: local economic factors trump supply and demand.

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Richardson, Clare; Mattison, Gennaya; Workman, Adrienne; Gupta, Subhas

2015-02-01

The pricing of cosmetic surgery procedures has long been thought to coincide with laws of basic economics, including the model of supply and demand. However, the highly variable prices of these procedures indicate that additional economic contributors are probable. The authors sought to reassess the fit of cosmetic surgery costs to the model of supply and demand and to determine the driving forces behind the pricing of cosmetic surgery procedures. Ten plastic surgery practices were randomly selected from each of 15 US cities of various population sizes. Average prices of breast augmentation, mastopexy, abdominoplasty, blepharoplasty, and rhytidectomy in each city were compared with economic and demographic statistics. The average price of cosmetic surgery procedures correlated substantially with population size (r = 0.767), cost-of-living index (r = 0.784), cost to own real estate (r = 0.714), and cost to rent real estate (r = 0.695) across the 15 US cities. Cosmetic surgery pricing also was found to correlate (albeit weakly) with household income (r = 0.436) and per capita income (r = 0.576). Virtually no correlations existed between pricing and the density of plastic surgeons (r = 0.185) or the average age of residents (r = 0.076). Results of this study demonstrate a correlation between costs of cosmetic surgery procedures and local economic factors. Cosmetic surgery pricing cannot be completely explained by the supply-and-demand model because no association was found between procedure cost and the density of plastic surgeons. © 2015 The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, Inc. Reprints and permission: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Do oil shocks predict economic policy uncertainty?

Science.gov (United States)

Rehman, Mobeen Ur

2018-05-01

Oil price fluctuations have influential role in global economic policies for developed as well as emerging countries. I investigate the role of international oil prices disintegrated into structural (i) oil supply shock, (ii) aggregate demand shock and (iii) oil market specific demand shocks, based on the work of Kilian (2009) using structural VAR framework on economic policies uncertainty of sampled markets. Economic policy uncertainty, due to its non-linear behavior is modeled in a regime switching framework with disintegrated structural oil shocks. Our results highlight that Indian, Spain and Japanese economic policy uncertainty responds to the global oil price shocks, however aggregate demand shocks fail to induce any change. Oil specific demand shocks are significant only for China and India in high volatility state.

Behavioral Effects in Forming the Preferences of the Economic Selection of the Economic Subject

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Svetlana, V. Belikova

2017-03-01

Full Text Available An attempt has been made to substantiate the behavioral features of the economic choice of an economic entity in the context of the decision-making environment transformation, and also to study their influence on the forming subjective preferences. At the same time, the behavioral paradigm is identified as a basic theoretical construct, which makes it possible to identify the main irrationalizing factors. Based on the study of the conceptual provisions of the behavioral paradigm, it was concluded that the preferences of the economic entity in the process of implementing the economic choice are formed under the influence of motivational and cognitive predictors, which limit the rationality of the economic entity. Deviating from rational criteria towards irrational, the economic entity shapes its preferences on the basis of economic and non-economic criteria, systematically making mistakes in the context of the influence of cognitive distortions manifested in decision-making under modern conditions. Based on the findings, the author constructs a model of economic choice, taking into account behavioral predictors. Among the most important cognitive distortions are herd instinct, professional deformation, "curse of knowledge", bias toward information retrieval, error of substantiation of assessment, bias of confirmation, neglect of formalized methods of cognition, conservatism, preferences of personified trust and heuristics of asymmetric perception.

Special issue: Behavioral Economics and Health Annual Symposium.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-01

The application of behavioral economics to health and health care has captured the imagination of policymakers across the political spectrum. The idea is that many people are irrational in predictable ways, and that this both contributes to unhealthy behaviors like smoking and holds one of the keys to changing those behaviors. Because health care costs continue to increase, and a substantial portion of costs are incurred because of unhealthy behaviors, employers and insurers have great interest in using financial incentives to change behaviors. However, it is in the details that complexity and controversies emerge. Who should the targets be, and what outcomes should be rewarded? How should incentives be structured, to maximize their effectiveness and minimize unintended consequences? In what situations should we be intervening to affect decisions by people who may prefer to be obese or to smoke, and in what situations should we accept their preferences? To begin to answer these questions, the Penn-CMU Roybal P30 Center on Behavioral Economics and Health held its first annual Behavioral Economics and Health Symposium on March 24-25, 2011 with support from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The symposium drew more than 50 researchers, scholars, and health professionals from a variety of disciplines, including medicine, public health, economics, law, management, marketing, and psychology. They heard perspectives on behavioral economics from public and private funders, the CEO of the University of Pennsylvania Health System, and the CEO of stickK.com, a start-up company that uses online, voluntary commitment contracts to help people achieve their goals. Participants formed eight working groups to review the current state-of-the-art in a variety of clinical contexts and to consider how behavioral economics could inform a research agenda to improve health. This Issue Brief summarizes the findings of these working groups and the symposium.

Innovation and Demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Esben Sloth

2007-01-01

the demand-side of markets in the simplest possible way. This strategy has allowed a gradual increase in the sophistication of supply-side aspects of economic evolution, but the one-sided focus on supply is facing diminishing returns. Therefore, demand-side aspects of economic evolution have in recent years...... received increased attention. The present paper argues that the new emphasis on demand-side factors is quite crucial for a deepened understanding of economic evolution. The major reasons are the following: First, demand represents the core force of selection that gives direction to the evolutionary process....... Second, firms' innovative activities relate, directly or indirectly, to the structure of expected and actual demand. Third, the demand side represents the most obvious way of turning to the much-needed analysis of macro-evolutionary change of the economic system....

Energy demand, economic growth, and energy efficiency - the Bakun dam-induced sustainable energy policy revisited

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keong, C.Y.

2005-01-01

In embarking on a dynamic course of economic development and industrial modernism, Malaysia sees the need to increase its electricity generation capacity through the development of a mega-dam project - the Bakun dam. Although hydroelectricity generation offers one of the benign options in accommodating the increasing energy consumption per capita in Malaysia, it is argued that the construction of Bakun's dam which involves a complete and irreversible destruction of 69,640 ha of old forest ecosystem remains a difficult and uncertain endeavour. It is further argued that apart from mega-dam technology, there are also other means to orchestrate a sustainable energy system in Malaysia. These include the implementation of demand and supply initiatives, such as the deployment of energy saving technology or influencing behavioral change towards a sustainable energy consumption pattern

Consumer brand choice: individual and group analyses of demand elasticity.

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Oliveira-Castro, Jorge M; Foxall, Gordon R; Schrezenmaier, Teresa C

2006-03-01

Following the behavior-analytic tradition of analyzing individual behavior, the present research investigated demand elasticity of individual consumers purchasing supermarket products, and compared individual and group analyses of elasticity. Panel data from 80 UK consumers purchasing 9 product categories (i.e., baked beans, biscuits, breakfast cereals, butter, cheese, fruit juice, instant coffee, margarine and tea) during a 16-week period were used. Elasticity coefficients were calculated for individual consumers with data from all or only 1 product category (intra-consumer elasticities), and for each product category using all data points from all consumers (overall product elasticity) or 1 average data point per consumer (interconsumer elasticity). In addition to this, split-sample elasticity coefficients were obtained for each individual with data from all product categories purchased during weeks 1 to 8 and 9 to 16. The results suggest that: 1) demand elasticity coefficients calculated for individual consumers purchasing supermarket food products are compatible with predictions from economic theory and behavioral economics; 2) overall product elasticities, typically employed in marketing and econometric research, include effects of interconsumer and intraconsumer elasticities; 3) when comparing demand elasticities of different product categories, group and individual analyses yield similar trends; and 4) individual differences in demand elasticity are relatively consistent across time, but do not seem to be consistent across products. These results demonstrate the theoretical, methodological, and managerial relevance of investigating the behavior of individual consumers.

Some current dimensions of the behavioral economics of health-related behavior change.

Science.gov (United States)

Bickel, Warren K; Moody, Lara; Higgins, Stephen T

2016-11-01

Health-related behaviors such as tobacco, alcohol and other substance use, poor diet and physical inactivity, and risky sexual practices are important targets for research and intervention. Health-related behaviors are especially pertinent targets in the United States, which lags behind most other developed nations on common markers of population health. In this essay we examine the application of behavioral economics, a scientific discipline that represents the intersection of economics and psychology, to the study and promotion of health-related behavior change. More specifically, we review what we consider to be some core dimensions of this discipline when applied to the study health-related behavior change. Behavioral economics (1) provides novel conceptual systems to inform scientific understanding of health behaviors, (2) translates scientific understanding into practical and effective behavior-change interventions, (3) leverages varied aspects of behavior change beyond increases or decreases in frequency, (4) recognizes and exploits trans-disease processes and interventions, and (5) leverages technology in efforts to maximize efficacy, cost effectiveness, and reach. These dimensions are overviewed and their implications for the future of the field discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Implication of Effectiveness of Demand for Money on Economic Growth in Nigeria

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Taiwo Adewale Muritala

2012-02-01

Full Text Available The demand for money plays a major role in macroeconomic analysis, especially inselecting appropriate policy. This brings in the demand for money function which expresses amathematical relationship between the quantity of money demanded and its various determinants;interest rate, income, price level, credit availability, frequency of payments etc. Aggregate demandwill be affected only in so far as consumption or investment is affected by the change in the interestrate. Against this background, the task in this paper is to empirically analyze and examine theimplication of the effectiveness of demand for money on economic growth performance within theNigerian context between the periods of 1970-2008 through the use of the application of OrdinaryLeast Square method, the multiple linear regressionanalysis on E-views 7.0. The paper thereforeconcludes that money demand has a major effect on the aggregate demand which accounts for theGDP of the economy. This implies that by ensuring efficiency in demand for money, aggregatedemand would be achieved and adequately sustained growth that will ensure that inflation is atminimum will be achieved in the economy.

Daily job demands and employee work engagement: The role of daily transformational leadership behavior.

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Breevaart, Kimberley; Bakker, Arnold B

2018-07-01

Using job demands-resources (JD-R) theory, the present study integrates the challenge stressor-hindrance stressor framework and leadership theory to investigate the relationship between daily transformational leadership behavior and employee work engagement. We hypothesized that daily transformational leadership behavior (a) sustains employee work engagement on days characterized by high challenge job demands, and (b) protects work engagement on days characterized by high hindrance job demands. Teachers filled out a short online questionnaire at the end of each workday during a 2-week period (N = 271 × 5.68 days = 1539). Results of latent moderated structural equation modeling showed that teachers' daily challenge demands (workload and cognitive demands) had a positive relationship with work engagement on the days transformational leadership was high (vs. low). In addition, teachers' daily hindrance demands (role-conflict, but not family to work conflict) had a negative relationship with work engagement on the days transformational leadership was low (vs. high). These findings show that the function of transformational leadership behavior changes from day to day, and depends on the type of job demand. We discuss the practical and theoretical implications of these findings. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

[Economic determinants of the demand for importation of pharmacochemical and pharmaceutical products].

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Anderson Moreira Aristides Dos; Tejada, César Augusto Oviedo; Jacinto, Paulo de Andrade

2017-09-28

: This article analyzes the relationship between the demand for importation of pharmacochemical and pharmaceutical products and economic variables (exchange rate, import prices, and aggregate income) in Brazil, using monthly data from 1997-2014. The main results showed that increases in aggregate income and price reductions in imports have a positive and significant impact (elastic and inelastic, respectively) on imports. Exchange rate was only significant in the more aggregate model. Thus, aggregate income was a robust variable with strong impact on the importation of pharmacochemical and pharmaceutical products. The arguments in the literature that this industry's international trade deficit is related to a deficit in knowledge and technology and the current study's results provide evidence that as economic activity grows, there is a greater demand for this type of product. Additionally, if domestic production is insufficient, there is a need for imports, which can generate pressure on the trade deficit in the industry and contribute to Brazil's dependence on other countries.

Examining the Association of Economic Development with Intercity Multimodal Transport Demand in China: A Focus on Spatial Autoregressive Analysis

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Jinbao Zhao

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Transportation is generally perceived as a catalyst for economic development. This has been highlighted in previous studies. However, less attention has been paid to examine the relationship between economy and transport demand by exploring spatially cross-sectional data, especially for countries with significant regional economic imbalance, like China. In this article, we assess the economic influence of intercity multimodal transport demand at the prefecture level in China. Spatial autoregressive regression models are used to examine the impact of transport demand on economy by deep analysis of transport modes (land, air, and water and regions (eastern, central, and western. Through contrasting results from spatial lag model and spatial error model with those from the ordinary least square, this study finds that the estimation results can become more accurate by controlling for spatial autocorrelation, especially at the national level. Through rigorous analysis it is identified that except for water passenger traffic, all other intercity transport demand significantly contribute to a city’s economic development level in gross domestic product. In particular, air transport demands distribute more evenly and are estimated with the highest beta coefficients at both national and regional levels. In addition, the beta coefficients for land, air and water transportation are estimated with different magnitudes and significances at the national and regional levels. This study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the relationship between intercity multimodal transport demand and economic development level. Findings from this paper provide planning makers with valid and efficient strategies to better develop the economy by leveraging the special “⊣” cluster pattern of economic development and the benefits of air transportation.

Behavioral economics and regulatory analysis.

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Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K

2011-09-01

Behavioral economics has captured the interest of scholars and the general public by demonstrating ways in which individuals make decisions that appear irrational. While increasing attention is being focused on the implications of this research for the design of risk-reducing policies, less attention has been paid to how it affects the economic valuation of policy consequences. This article considers the latter issue, reviewing the behavioral economics literature and discussing its implications for the conduct of benefit-cost analysis, particularly in the context of environmental, health, and safety regulations. We explore three concerns: using estimates of willingness to pay or willingness to accept compensation for valuation, considering the psychological aspects of risk when valuing mortality-risk reductions, and discounting future consequences. In each case, we take the perspective that analysts should avoid making judgments about whether values are "rational" or "irrational." Instead, they should make every effort to rely on well-designed studies, using ranges, sensitivity analysis, or probabilistic modeling to reflect uncertainty. More generally, behavioral research has led some to argue for a more paternalistic approach to policy analysis. We argue instead for continued focus on describing the preferences of those affected, while working to ensure that these preferences are based on knowledge and careful reflection. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Indonesia Export, Import, and Demand for Domestic Commodities under Economics Liberalisation

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Andi Irawan

2011-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of this research is to identify the behaviour of export, import and domestic commoditiesdemand in liberalization era both in the long run and the short run. This researchapplies the Vector Error Correction Model, Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse ResponseAnalysis and Granger Causality Test. The data range from 1993:01 to 2002:12. The resultshows that in the long run the cross-price elasticity of imported non agricultural goods withrespect to demand for domestically produced goods have lower magnitudes than own priceelasticity of domestically produced goods. The demand elasticity of import commodities iselastic but that of domestic commodities is inelastic.Keywords: Import, Export, Economic Liberalization, Vector Error Correction Model

An economic welfare analysis of demand response in the PJM electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walawalkar, Rahul; Blumsack, Seth; Apt, Jay; Fernands, Stephen

2008-01-01

We analyze the economic properties of the economic demand-response (DR) program in the PJM electricity market in the United States using DR market data. PJM's program provided subsidies to customers who reduced load in response to price signals. The program incorporated a 'trigger point', at a locational marginal price of $75/MWh, at or beyond which payments for load reduction included a subsidy payment. Particularly during peak hours, such a program saves money for the system, but the subsidies involved introduce distortions into the market. We simulate demand-side bidding into the PJM market, and compare the social welfare gains with the subsidies paid to price-responsive load using load and price data for year 2006. The largest economic effect is wealth transfers from generators to non price-responsive loads. Based on the incentive payment structure that was in effect through the end of 2007, we estimate that the social welfare gains exceed the distortions introduced by the subsidies. Lowering the trigger point increases the transfer from generators to consumers, but may result in the subsidy outweighing the social welfare gains due to load curtailment. We estimate that the socially optimal range for the incentive trigger point would be $66-77/MWh

The Giffen Effect: A Note on Economic Purposes.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, William D.

1990-01-01

Describes the Giffen effect: demand for a commodity increases as price increases. Explains how applying control theory eliminates the paradox that the Giffen effect presents to classic economics supply and demand theory. Notes the differences in how conventional demand theory and control theory treat consumer behavior. (CH)

Interest-free and Interest-bearing Money Demand: Policy Invariance and Stability

OpenAIRE

Amir Kia

2001-01-01

This paper, using quarterly Iranian data for the period of 1966-1998, extends the literature by investigating the stability of the interest-free money demand function. The study also examines the stability of economic agents' behavior in demanding interest-bearing and interest-free money. It was found, contrary to interest-bearing demand or money, both short- and long-run demand for interest-free money functions are stable and their coefficients are invariant with respect to policy and other ...

Pengembangan Model Economic Production Quantity (EPQ dengan Sinkronisasi Demand Kontinu dan Diskrit Secara Simultan

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Nurike Oktavia

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The most popular inventory model to determine production lot size is Economic Production Quantity (EPQ. It shows enterprise how to minimize total production cost by reducing inventory cost. But, three main parameters in EPQ which are demand, machine set up cost, and holding cost, are not suitable to solve issues nowadays. When an enterprise has two types of demand, continue and discrete demand, the basic EPQ would be no longer useful. Demand continues comes from a customer who wants their needs to be fulfilled every time per unit time, while the fulfillment of demand discrete is at a fixed interval of time. A literature review is done by writers to observe other formulation of EPQ model. As there is no other research can be found which adopt this topic, this study tries to develop EPQ model considering two types of demand simultaneously.

Behavioral Economics and the Public Acceptance of Synthetic Biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliver, Adam

2018-01-01

Different applications of synthetic biology are alike in that their possible negative consequences are highly uncertain, potentially catastrophic, and perhaps irreversible; therefore, they are also alike in that public attitudes about them are fertile ground for behavioral economic phenomena. Findings from behavioral economics suggest that people may not respond to such applications according to the normal rules of economic evaluation, by which the value of an outcome is multiplied by the mathematical probability that the outcome will occur. Possibly, then, synthetic biology applications challenge the normative postulates of the standard approach, too. I want to first consider how some of the phenomena described by behavioral economists-and behavioral scientists more broadly-might affect people's perceptions of the uncertainties associated with synthetic biology. My analysis will be far from complete, however, because behavioral economics is essentially the study of human behavior, and thus its reach is potentially vast and its development longstanding and ongoing. Nonetheless, I hope to give an indicative perspective on how some aspects of behavioral economics might affect the assessment and perceived acceptability of synthetic biology. I will then consider the issue of agency. Should policy-makers respect people's reactions to synthetic biology when those reactions are known to be driven by behavioral economic phenomena rather than following the normative postulates of rational choice theory? Or should policy-makers dismiss these reactions as inherently biased? I will argue that the normative force of these human reactions (probably) depends on phenomenon and context. © 2018 The Hastings Center.

Is economics coursework, or majoring in economics, associated with different civic behaviors?

OpenAIRE

Sam Allgood; William Bosshardt; Wilbert Van der Klaauw; Michael Watts

2010-01-01

Studies regularly link levels of educational attainment to civic behavior and attitudes, but only a few investigate the role played by specific coursework. Using data collected from students who attended one of four public universities in our study, we investigate the relationship between economics coursework and civic behavior after graduation. Drawing from large samples of students in economics, business, or general majors, we compare responses across the three groups and by the number of u...

Accounting for ethnicity in recreation demand: a flexible count data approach

Science.gov (United States)

J. Michael Bowker; V.R. Leeworthy

1998-01-01

The authors examine ethnicity and individual trip-taking behavior associated with natural resource based recreation in the Florida Keys. Bowker and Leeworthy estimate trip demand using the travel cost method. They then extend this model with a varying parameter adaptation to test the congruency of' demand and economic value across white and Hispanic user subgroups...

Investor decisions through the lens of behavioral economics

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David S. Murphy

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Traditional economic theory postulates that people are rational. This implies that people make decisions to maximize their utility functions and to do this, that they have fully and correctly evaluated their preferences and limitations. Behavioral economics recognizes that this is not always true, that sometimes information is incomplete. This article is examines some of the effects of behavioral economics (which come largely from cognitive psychology in decision-making by investors in the stock exchanges.

Safety behavior: Job demands, job resources, and perceived management commitment to safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansez, Isabelle; Chmiel, Nik

2010-07-01

The job demands-resources model posits that job demands and resources influence outcomes through job strain and work engagement processes. We test whether the model can be extended to effort-related "routine" safety violations and "situational" safety violations provoked by the organization. In addition we test more directly the involvement of job strain than previous studies which have used burnout measures. Structural equation modeling provided, for the first time, evidence of predicted relationships between job strain and "routine" violations and work engagement with "routine" and "situational" violations, thereby supporting the extension of the job demands-resources model to safety behaviors. In addition our results showed that a key safety-specific construct 'perceived management commitment to safety' added to the explanatory power of the job demands-resources model. A predicted path from job resources to perceived management commitment to safety was highly significant, supporting the view that job resources can influence safety behavior through both general motivational involvement in work (work engagement) and through safety-specific processes.

The Law of Supply and Demand: Here It Is Finally

OpenAIRE

Kakarot-Handtke, Egmont

2014-01-01

There is no such thing as a law of human or social behavior. The conceptual consequence of the present paper is therefore to discard the subjectivebehavioral axioms and to take objective-structural axioms as new formal foundations. The central piece of economic theory is the interaction of demand and supply which determines prices and quantities. Demand and supply in turn are determined by subjective factors. In the structural axiomatic paradigm the Law of Supply and Demand follows from objec...

Tobacco demand, delay discounting, and smoking topography among smokers with and without psychopathology.

Science.gov (United States)

Farris, Samantha G; Aston, Elizabeth R; Abrantes, Ana M; Zvolensky, Michael J

2017-10-01

Tobacco demand (i.e., relative value attributed to a given reinforcer) and delay discounting (i.e., relative preference for smaller immediate rewards over larger delayed rewards) are two behavioral economic processes that are linked to the progression of problematic substance use. These processes have not been studied among those with psychopathology, a vulnerable group of smokers. The current study examined differences in tobacco demand and delay discounting, and their association with smoking topography among smokers with (n=43) and without (n=64) past-year psychopathology. Adult daily smokers (n=107,M age =43.5; SD=9.7) participated in a study on "smoking behavior." Past-year psychological disorders were assessed via a clinician-administered diagnostic assessment. All subjects participated in an ad libitum smoking trial and then completed an assessment of delay discounting (Monetary Choice Questionnaire) and tobacco demand (Cigarette Purchase Task) approximately 45-60min post-smoking. Smokers with psychopathology, compared to those without, had significantly higher demand intensity and maximum expenditure on tobacco (O max ), but did not differ on other demand indices or delay discounting. Smokers with psychopathology had shorter average inter-puff intervals and shorter time to cigarette completion than smokers without psychopathology. Tobacco demand and delay discounting measures were significantly intercorrelated among smokers with psychopathology, but not those without. Both behavioral economic measures were associated with specific aspects of smoking topography in smokers with psychopathology. The association between tobacco demand and delay discounting is evident among smokers with psychopathology and both measures were most consistently related to smoking behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

When does "economic man" dominate social behavior?

Science.gov (United States)

Camerer, Colin F; Fehr, Ernst

2006-01-06

The canonical model in economics considers people to be rational and self-regarding. However, much evidence challenges this view, raising the question of when "Economic Man" dominates the outcome of social interactions, and when bounded rationality or other-regarding preferences dominate. Here we show that strategic incentives are the key to answering this question. A minority of self-regarding individuals can trigger a "noncooperative" aggregate outcome if their behavior generates incentives for the majority of other-regarding individuals to mimic the minority's behavior. Likewise, a minority of other-regarding individuals can generate a "cooperative" aggregate outcome if their behavior generates incentives for a majority of self-regarding people to behave cooperatively. Similarly, in strategic games, aggregate outcomes can be either far from or close to Nash equilibrium if players with high degrees of strategic thinking mimic or erase the effects of others who do very little strategic thinking. Recently developed theories of other-regarding preferences and bounded rationality explain these findings and provide better predictions of actual aggregate behavior than does traditional economic theory.

Behavioral Economics and Climate Change Policy

OpenAIRE

John M. Gowdy

2007-01-01

The policy recommendations of most economists are based on the rational actor model of human behavior. Behavior is assumed to be self-regarding, preferences are assumed to be stable, and decisions are assumed to be unaffected by social context or frame of reference. The related fields of behavioral economics, game theory, and neuroscience have confirmed that human behavior is other regarding, and that people exhibit systematic patterns of decision-making that are "irrational" according to the...

Leveraging Behavioral Economics to Improve Heart Failure Care and Outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Leslie L; DeVore, Adam D; Granger, Bradi B; Eapen, Zubin J; Ariely, Dan; Hernandez, Adrian F

2017-08-22

Behavioral challenges are often present in human illness, so behavioral economics is increasingly being applied in healthcare settings to better understand why patients choose healthy or unhealthy behaviors. The application of behavioral economics to healthcare settings parallels recent shifts in policy and reimbursement structures that hold providers accountable for outcomes that are dependent on patient behaviors. Numerous studies have examined the application of behavioral economics principles to policy making and health behaviors, but there are limited data on applying these concepts to the management of chronic conditions, such as heart failure (HF). Given its increasing prevalence and high associated cost of care, HF is a paradigm case for studying novel approaches to improve health care; therefore, if we can better understand why patients with HF make the choices they do, then we may be more poised to help them manage their medications, influence daily behaviors, and encourage healthy decision making. In this article, we will give a brief explanation of the core behavioral economics concepts that apply to patients with HF. We will also examine how to craft these concepts into tools such as financial incentives and social networks that may improve the management of patients with HF. We believe that behavioral economics can help us understand barriers to change, encourage positive behaviors, and offer additional approaches to improving the outcomes of patients with HF. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Behavioral Economics: A New Lens for Understanding Genomic Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Scott Emory; Ulbrich, Holley H; Hepburn, Kenneth; Holaday, Bonnie; Mayo, Rachel; Sharp, Julia; Pruitt, Rosanne H

2018-05-01

This article seeks to take the next step in examining the insights that nurses and other healthcare providers can derive from applying behavioral economic concepts to support genomic decision making. As genomic science continues to permeate clinical practice, nurses must continue to adapt practice to meet new challenges. Decisions associated with genomics are often not simple and dichotomous in nature. They can be complex and challenging for all involved. This article offers an introduction to behavioral economics as a possible tool to help support patients', families', and caregivers' decision making related to genomics. Using current writings from nursing, ethics, behavioral economic, and other healthcare scholars, we review key concepts of behavioral economics and discuss their relevance to supporting genomic decision making. Behavioral economic concepts-particularly relativity, deliberation, and choice architecture-are specifically examined as new ways to view the complexities of genomic decision making. Each concept is explored through patient decision making and clinical practice examples. This article also discusses next steps and practice implications for further development of the behavioral economic lens in nursing. Behavioral economics provides valuable insight into the unique nature of genetic decision-making practices. Nurses are often a source of information and support for patients during clinical decision making. This article seeks to offer behavioral economic concepts as a framework for understanding and examining the unique nature of genomic decision making. As genetic and genomic testing become more common in practice, it will continue to grow in importance for nurses to be able to support the autonomous decision making of patients, their families, and caregivers. © 2018 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Estimating the net electricity energy generation and demand using the ant colony optimization approach. Case of Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Toksari, M. Duran

2009-01-01

This paper presents Turkey's net electricity energy generation and demand based on economic indicators. Forecasting model for electricity energy generation and demand is first proposed by the ant colony optimization (ACO) approach. It is multi-agent system in which the behavior of each ant is inspired by the foraging behavior of real ants to solve optimization problem. Ant colony optimization electricity energy estimation (ACOEEE) model is developed using population, gross domestic product (GDP), import and export. All equations proposed here are linear electricity energy generation and demand (linear A COEEGE and linear ACOEEDE) and quadratic energy generation and demand (quadratic A COEEGE and quadratic ACOEEDE). Quadratic models for both generation and demand provided better fit solution due to the fluctuations of the economic indicators. The ACOEEGE and ACOEEDE models indicate Turkey's net electricity energy generation and demand until 2025 according to three scenarios. (author)

Incorporating Demand and Supply Constraints into Economic Evaluations in Low-Income and Middle-Income Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Vassall, Anna; Mangham-Jefferies, Lindsay; Gomez, Gabriela B; Pitt, Catherine; Foster, Nicola

2016-02-01

Global guidelines for new technologies are based on cost and efficacy data from a limited number of trial locations. Country-level decision makers need to consider whether cost-effectiveness analysis used to inform global guidelines are sufficient for their situation or whether to use models that adjust cost-effectiveness results taking into account setting-specific epidemiological and cost heterogeneity. However, demand and supply constraints will also impact cost-effectiveness by influencing the standard of care and the use and implementation of any new technology. These constraints may also vary substantially by setting. We present two case studies of economic evaluations of the introduction of new diagnostics for malaria and tuberculosis control. These case studies are used to analyse how the scope of economic evaluations of each technology expanded to account for and then address demand and supply constraints over time. We use these case studies to inform a conceptual framework that can be used to explore the characteristics of intervention complexity and the influence of demand and supply constraints. Finally, we describe a number of feasible steps that researchers who wish to apply our framework in cost-effectiveness analyses. © 2016 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Trial-to-trial reoptimization of motor behavior due to changes in task demands is limited.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Orban de Xivry J-J

Full Text Available Each task requires a specific motor behavior that is tuned to task demands. For instance, writing requires a lot of accuracy while clapping does not. It is known that the brain adjusts the motor behavior to different task demands as predicted by optimal control theory. In this study, the mechanism of this reoptimization process is investigated by varying the accuracy demands of a reaching task. In this task, the width of the reaching target (0.5 or 8 cm was varied either on a trial-to-trial basis (random schedule or in blocks (blocked schedule. On some trials, the hand of the subjects was clamped to a rectilinear trajectory that ended 2 cm on the left or right of the target center. The rejection of this perturbation largely varied with target width in the blocked schedule but not in the random schedule. That is, subjects exhibited different motor behavior in the different schedules despite identical accuracy demands. Therefore, while reoptimization has been considered immediate and automatic, the differences in motor behavior observed across schedules suggest that the reoptimization of the motor behavior is neither happening on a trial-by-trial basis nor obligatory. The absence of trial-to-trial mechanisms, the inability of the brain to adapt to two conflicting task demands and the existence of a switching cost are discussed as possible sources of the non-optimality of motor behavior during the random schedule.

Economic, demographic and social factors of energy demand in Mexican households, 2008-2014

Science.gov (United States)

Perez Pena, Rafael

This research project focuses on estimating the effect of economic, demographic, and social factors in residential energy demand in Mexico from 2008 to 2014. Therefore, it estimates demand equations for electricity, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), coal and natural gas using Mexican household data from 2008 to 2014. It also applies accessibility theory and it estimates energy access indicators using different specifications of demand for LPG in 2014. Sprawl measures, gravity model, and central place theory are the accessibility theory supporting the energy access indicators. Results suggest the greater the household income, the population size, the educational level of the householder, the energy access, and the lower the energy price and the household size, the greater the demand for energy in Mexico from 2008 to 2014. The greater the education, the lower the demand for firewood and coal. LPG and firewood have a monopolistically competitive market structure. Energy access indicators informed by accessibility theory are statistically significant and show the expected sign when applied to LPG in Mexican household in 2014.

Electricity decision-making: New techniques for calculating statewide economic impacts from new power supply and demand-side management programs

Science.gov (United States)

Tegen, Suzanne Isabel Helmholz

This dissertation introduces new techniques for calculating and comparing statewide economic impacts from new coal, natural gas and wind power plants, as well as from demand-side management programs. The impetus for this work was two-fold. First, reviews of current literature and projects revealed that there was no standard way to estimate statewide economic impacts from new supply- and demand-side electricity options. Second, decision-makers who were interviewed stated that they were overwhelmed with data in general, but also lacked enough specific information about economic development impacts to their states from electricity, to make informed choices. This dissertation includes chapters on electricity decision-making and on economic impacts from supply and demand. The supply chapter compares different electricity options in three states which vary in natural resource content: Arizona, Colorado and Michigan. To account for differing capacity factors, resources are compared on a per-megawatt-hour basis. The calculations of economic impacts from new supply include: materials and labor for construction, operations, maintenance, fuel extraction, fuel transport, as well as property tax, financing and landowner revenues. The demand-side chapter compares residential, commercial and industrial programs in Iowa. Impact calculations include: incremental labor and materials for program planning, installation and operations, as well as sales taxes and electricity saved. Results from supply-side calculations in the three states analyzed indicate that adding new wind power can have a greater impact to a state's economy than adding new gas or coal power due to resource location, taxes and infrastructure. Additionally, demand-side management programs have a higher relative percentage of in-state dollar flow than supply-side solutions, though demand-side programs typically involve fewer MWh and dollars than supply-side generation. Methods for this dissertation include researching

Current economic downturn and supply chain : The significance of demand and inventory smoothing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cannella, S.; Ashayeri, J.; Miranda, P.A.; Bruccoleri, M.

2014-01-01

The aim of this article is to analyse and quantify the effects of demand and inventory smoothing into supply-chain performance, facing the extreme volatility and impetuous alteration of the market produced by the current economic recession. To do so, we model a traditional serial three-stage supply

Socio-economic position, family demands and reported health in working men and women.

Science.gov (United States)

Regidor, Enrique; Pascual, Cruz; de la Fuente, Luis; Santos, Juana M; Astasio, Paloma; Ortega, Paloma

2011-02-01

This study evaluates the extent to which domestic workload explains socio-economic differences in poor self-reported health in women and men. In total, 6284 men and women who were employed and living with a partner were selected from the 2003 Spanish Health Interview Survey. The indicators of family demands investigated were person responsible for housework, number of persons in the household and the presence of at least one child under 15 years of age in the household. The measures of socio-economic position were educational level and household income, and the measures of health status were poor perceived health and limitation of activity due to disease. Household size and presence of a child under 15 in the home were not related with the measures of health status. The indicator about the person who does the housework was related with poor perceived health and with activity limitation. Specifically, the worst health status was seen in respondents who lived in homes where the partner or other family members did the housework. In general, the relation between indicators of socio-economic position and measures of health status was not modified after taking into account the person who does the housework. Among working people with a partner, persons who work and do their own housework do not have poorer perceived health than those living in homes where other people do the housework. This indicator of family demands does not explain the socio-economic differences in self-reported health.

Unlocking the potential for efficiency and demand response throughadvanced metering

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Levy, Roger; Herter, Karen; Wilson, John

2004-06-30

Reliance on the standard cumulative kilowatt-hour meter substantially compromises energy efficiency and demand response programs. Without advanced metering, utilities cannot support time-differentiated rates or collect the detailed customer usage information necessary to (1)educate the customer to the economic value of efficiency and demand response options, or (2) distribute load management incentives proportional to customer contribution. These deficiencies prevent the customer feedback mechanisms that would otherwise encourage economically sound demand-side investments and behaviors. Thus, the inability to collect or properly price electricity usage handicaps the success of almost all efficiency and demand response options. Historically, implementation of the advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) necessary for the successful efficiency and demand response programs has been prevented by inadequate cost-benefit analyses. A recent California effort has produced an expanded cost-effectiveness methodology for AMI that introduces previously excluded benefits. In addition to utility-centric costs and benefits, the new model includes qualitative and quantitative costs and benefits that accrue to both customers and society.

Marijuana and tobacco cigarettes: Estimating their behavioral economic relationship using purchasing tasks.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Erica N; Rosenberry, Zachary R; Schauer, Gillian L; O'Grady, Kevin E; Johnson, Patrick S

2017-06-01

Although marijuana and tobacco are commonly coused, the nature of their relationship has not been fully elucidated. Behavioral economics has characterized the relationship between concurrently available commodities but has not been applied to marijuana and tobacco couse. U.S. adults ≥18 years who coused marijuana and tobacco cigarettes were recruited via Mechanical Turk, a crowdsourcing service by Amazon. Participants (N = 82) completed online purchasing tasks assessing hypothetical marijuana or tobacco cigarette puff consumption across a range of per-puff prices; 2 single-commodity tasks assessed these when only 1 commodity was available, and 2 cross-commodity tasks assessed these in the presence of a concurrently available fixed-price commodity. Purchasing tasks generated measures of demand elasticity, that is, sensitivity of consumption to prices. In single-commodity tasks, consumption of tobacco cigarette puffs (elasticity of demand: α = 0.0075; 95% confidence interval [0.0066, 0.0085], R² = 0.72) and of marijuana puffs (α = .0044; 95% confidence interval [0.0038, 0.0049], R² = 0.71) declined significantly with increases in price per puff. In cross-commodity tasks when both tobacco cigarette puffs and marijuana puffs were available, demand for 1 commodity was independent of price increases in the other commodity (ps > .05). Results revealed that, in this small sample, marijuana and tobacco cigarettes did not substitute for each other and did not complement each other; instead, they were independent of each other. These preliminary results can inform future studies assessing the economic relationship between tobacco and marijuana in the quickly changing policy climate in the United States. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Agent-based model for electricity consumption and storage to evaluate economic viability of tariff arbitrage for residential sector demand response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zheng, Menglian; Meinrenken, Christoph J.; Lackner, Klaus S.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Storage-based demand response (loadshifting) is underutilized in residential sector. • Economics (arbitrage savings versus equipment cost) are not well understood. • Stochastic demand models and real-life tariffs can illuminate economic viability. • A range of available storage options provide economically viable DR. • Daily/seasonal stochastic demand variations crucial to understanding optimum capacity. - Abstract: Demand response (DR) is one of many approaches to address temporal mismatches in demand and supply of grid electricity. More common in the commercial sector, DR usually refers to reducing consumption at certain hours or seasons, thus reducing peak demand from the grid. In the residential sector, where sophisticated appliance-level controls such as automatic dimming of lights or on-demand lowering of air conditioning are less common, building-based electricity storage to shift grid consumption from peak to off-peak times could provide DR without requiring consumers to operate their appliances on shifted or reduced schedules: Storage would be dispatched to appliances as needed while still shaving peaks on the grid. Technologically, storage and two-way-inverters are readily available to enable such residential DR. Economically, however, the situation is less clear. Specifically, are time-varying electricity tariffs available such that electricity cost reduction via arbitrage could offset manufacturing, financing, and installation costs of the required storage? To address this question we (i) devise an agent-based appliance-level stochastic model to simulate the electricity demand of an average U.S. household; (ii) loadshift the demand via simple dispatch strategies; and (iii) determine potential profits to the building owner, i.e. reduced electricity cost of the modified demand with realistic tariffs (Con Edison, NY) minus storage cost. We determine the economic viability for a range of traditional and advanced storage technologies

Short-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenfeng; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Wang, Yubin Mao; Wang, Jiangbo; He, Dandan

2018-04-01

Short-term electricity demand forecasting is the basic work to ensure safe operation of the power system. In this paper, a practical economic electricity transmission model (EETM) is built. With the intelligent adaptive modeling capabilities of Prognoz Platform 7.2, the econometric model consists of three industrial added value and income levels is firstly built, the electricity demand transmission model is also built. By multiple regression, moving averages and seasonal decomposition, the problem of multiple correlations between variables is effectively overcome in EETM. The validity of EETM is proved by comparison with the actual value of Henan Province. Finally, EETM model is used to forecast the electricity consumption of the 1-4 quarter of 2018.

Social memory, social stress, and economic behaviors

OpenAIRE

Taiki Takahashi

2005-01-01

Social memory plays a pivotal role in social behaviors, from mating behaviors to cooperative behaviors based on reciprocal altruism. More specifically, social/person recognition memory is supposed, by behavioral-economic and game-theoretic analysis, to be required for tit- for-tat like cooperative behaviors to evolve under the N-person iterated prisoner fs dilemma game condition. Meanwhile, humans are known to show a social stress response during face-to-face social interactions, which might ...

Study on energy demand function of korea considering replacement among energy sources and the structural changes of demand behavior

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moon, C.K. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

1997-08-01

If the necessity of careful study on energy function is mentioned, it should be stressed that energy investment not only needs a long gestation period but also, acts as the bottleneck in the production capacity of an economy when investment is not enough. Thereby, the adverse effect of an energy supply shortage is very big. Especially, the replacement/supplemental relationship between energy and capital which corresponds to the movement on the iso-quanta curve is believed to have a direct relation with the answer as to whether long-term economic development would be possible under an energy crisis and its influence on technology selection. Furthermore, the advantages of technological advances which correspond to the movement on the iso-quanta curve has a direct relation with the question whether long-term economic development would be possible under an energy crisis depending on whether its direction is toward energy-saving or energy-consuming. This study tackles the main issues and outlines of the quantitative approach method based on the accounting approach method for modeling energy demand, quantitative economics approach method, and production model. In order to model energy demand of the Korean manufacturing industry, related data was established and a positive analytical model is completed and presented based on these. 122 refs., 10 tabs.

The Making of Behavioral Development Economics

OpenAIRE

Demeritt, Allison; Hoff, Karla

2018-01-01

A core insight from early behavioral economics is that much of human judgment and behavior is influenced by "fast thinking" that is intuitive, associative, and automatic; very little human thinking resembles the rational thinking that characterizes homo economicus. What is less well-recognized is that innate reliance on cognitive shortcuts means that cultural mental models --categories, co...

Psychology, behavioral economics, and public policy

OpenAIRE

Amir, O; Ariely, D; Cooke, A; Dunning, D; Epley, N; Gneezy, U; Koszegi, B; Lichtenstein, D; Mazar, N; Mullainathan, S; Prelec, D; Shafir, E; Silva, J

2005-01-01

Economics has typically been the social science of choice to inform public policy and policymakers. In the current paper we contemplate the role behavioral science can play in enlightening policymakers. In particular, we provide some examples of research that has and can be used to inform policy, reflect on the kind of behavioral science that is important for policy, and approaches for convincing policy-makers to listen to behavioral scientists. We suggest that policymakers are unlikely to in...

Impact of oil prices, economic diversification policies and energy conservation programs on the electricity and water demands in Kuwait

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wood, Michael; Alsayegh, Osamah A.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the influences of oil revenue and government's policies toward economic developments and energy efficiency on the electricity and water demands. A Kuwait-specific electricity and water demand model was developed based on historic data of oil income, gross domestic product (GDP), population and electric load and water demand over the past twelve years (1998–2010). Moreover, the model took into account the future mega projects, annual new connected loads and expected application of energy conservation programs. It was run under six circumstances representing the combinations of three oil income scenarios and two government action policies toward economic diversification and energy conservation. The first government policy is the status quo with respect to economic diversification and applying energy conservation programs. The second policy scenario is the proactive strategy of raising the production of the non-oil sector revenue and enforcing legislations toward energy demand side management and conservation. In the upcoming 20 years, the average rates of change of the electric load and water demand increase are 0.13 GW and 3.0 MIGD, respectively, per US dollar oil price increase. Moreover, through proactive policy, the rates of average load and water demand decrease are 0.13 GW and 2.9 MIGD per year, respectively. - Highlights: • Kuwait-specific electricity and water demand model is presented. • Strong association between oil income and electricity and water demands. • Rate of change of electric load per US dollar oil price change is 0.13 GW. • Rate of change of water demand per US dollar oil price change is 3.0 MIGD. • By 2030, efficiency lowers electric load and water demand by 10 and 6%, respectively

The Impact of Pre-Cessation Varenicline on Behavioral Economic Indices of Smoking Reinforcement

Science.gov (United States)

Schlienz, Nicolas J.; Hawk, Larry W.; Tiffany, Stephen T.; O'Connor, Richard J.; Mahoney, Martin C.

2014-01-01

Background Varenicline was developed to aid smoking cessation by reducing smoking reinforcement. The present study tests this reinforcement-reduction hypothesis among smokers preparing to quit. Method After a one-week baseline, treatment-seeking smokers were randomized to receive three weeks of varenicline or placebo (Weeks 2-4). During each of the four weeks of the study, smokers completed a hypothetical cigarette purchase task (CPT) via handheld device in their natural environment. Behavioral economic measures of simulated smoking if cigarettes were free (demand intensity), sensitivity of consumption to increasing price (elasticity), and price at which purchases would drop to 0 (breakpoint) were estimated. Results Exponential demand equations fit the purchase task data well across subjects and time. As predicted, demand intensity decreased and sensitivity to price (elasticity) increased over time. However, changes in demand intensity did not differ by treatment group. Contrary to our hypothesis that varenicline would increase sensitivity to price, the placebo group tended to become more elastic in their purchases during Weeks 2 and 3; the groups did not differ in elasticity at Week 4. Breakpoint did not vary by group, time, or their interaction. Conclusion Simulated smoking demand can be validly assessed in the natural environment of treatment-seeking smokers. Simulated demand indices of smoking reinforcement diminished as smokers approached their target quit date. However, there was no evidence that varenicline facilitated these changes over a three week period, leaving open the mechanisms by which varenicline reduces smoking rate prior to cessation and improves long-term abstinence. PMID:24949949

Technical and economical tools to assess customer demand response in the commercial sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez Bel, Carlos; Ortega, Manuel Alcazar; Escriva, Guillermo Escriva; Gabaldon Marin, Antonio

2009-01-01

The authors present a methodology to evaluate and quantify the economic parameters (costs and benefits) attached to customer electricity consumption by analyzing the service provided by the different ''pieces'' of absorbed electricity. The first step of this methodology is to perform a process oriented market segmentation to identify segments according to their flexibility potential. After that, a procedure based on comprehensive simulations to identify and quantify the actual demand that can be managed in the short term is presented and, finally, the required economic analysis is performed. The methodology, which is demonstrated with some applications to the commercial sector, not only helps the customers to integrate in flexible distribution systems but also offers the necessary economical parameters for them to integrate in electricity markets. (author)

Neural systems supporting and affecting economically relevant behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Braeutigam S

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Sven BraeutigamOxford Centre for Human Brain Activity, University of Oxford, Oxford, United KingdomAbstract: For about a hundred years, theorists and traders alike have tried to unravel and understand the mechanisms and hidden rules underlying and perhaps determining economically relevant behavior. This review focuses on recent developments in neuroeconomics, where the emphasis is placed on two directions of research: first, research exploiting common experiences of urban inhabitants in industrialized societies to provide experimental paradigms with a broader real-life content; second, research based on behavioral genetics, which provides an additional dimension for experimental control and manipulation. In addition, possible limitations of state-of-the-art neuroeconomics research are addressed. It is argued that observations of neuronal systems involved in economic behavior converge to some extent across the technologies and paradigms used. Conceptually, the data available as of today raise the possibility that neuroeconomic research might provide evidence at the neuronal level for the existence of multiple systems of thought and for the importance of conflict. Methodologically, Bayesian approaches in particular may play an important role in identifying mechanisms and establishing causality between patterns of neural activity and economic behavior.Keywords: neuroeconomics, behavioral genetics, decision-making, consumer behavior, neural system

Social Capital And Economic Behavior Of Farmers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heliawaty

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Abstrac The purpose of this study to analyze the relationship between social capital affects economic behavior in producing coffee plants in improving coffee farmers income. This study was conducted in the district of Bantaeng South Sulawesi. Subdistrict Tampobulu selected purposively. The study lasted for four months of April to July 2014. The data used in this study consist of primary data and secondary data. It can be concluded that social capital is trust networking and institutions affect economic behavior namely the production of coffee plants. Trust improving technology adoption Robusta and Arabica coffee cuttings while distrust led to rampant theft of coffee is still green. Networking affect the price of coffee and institutions influence the behavior of farmers in obtaining venture capital through middlemen. It is expected that future studies should be focused on the factors that influence the innovative behavior in increasing the production of coffee plants.

Japan's actual energy supply/demand in 1986 and background - drastically changing economic/energy situations upset plans and forecasts by a wide margin

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fujime, K

1987-05-01

In 1986 the value of the yen soared and there was a lowering of interest rates and a slump in crude oil prices. These drastic changes in economic/energy situations brought about a completely different picture of Japan's energy supply and demand from originally expected. Energy demand from large industrial users was lowered and impacts of price fluctuations on energy supply and demand were uneven. Topics covered in the paper are: economic/industrial trends; energy price trends; actual energy supply and demand including electricity, oil, town gas, coal and LNG (liquefied natural gas); trends of major energy-consuming industries and energy consumption including steel industry, paper/pulp industry, cement industry and petrochemical industry; plans/forecasts completely off the track due to drastically changing economic/energy situations.

The economic and poverty impacts of animal diseases in developing countries: new roles, new demands for economics and epidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Rich, Karl M; Perry, Brian D

2011-09-01

Animal disease outbreaks pose significant threats to livestock sectors throughout the world, both from the standpoint of the economic impacts of the disease itself and the measures taken to mitigate the risk of disease introduction. These impacts are multidimensional and not always well understood, complicating effective policy response. In the developing world, livestock diseases have broader, more nuanced effects on markets, poverty, and livelihoods, given the diversity of uses of livestock and complexity of livestock value chains. In both settings, disease control strategies, particularly those informed by ex ante modeling platforms, often fail to recognize the constraints inherent among farmers, veterinary services, and other value chain actors. In short, context matters. Correspondingly, an important gap in the animal health economics literature is the explicit incorporation of behavior and incentives in impact analyses that highlight the interactions of disease with its socio-economic and institutional setting. In this paper, we examine new approaches and frameworks for the analysis of economic and poverty impacts of animal diseases. We propose greater utilization of "bottom-up" analyses, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of value chain and information economics approaches in impact analyses and stressing the importance of improved integration between the epidemiology of disease and its relationships with economic behavior. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cue-Elicited Increases in Incentive Salience for Marijuana: Craving, Demand, and Attentional Bias

Science.gov (United States)

Metrik, Jane; Aston, Elizabeth R.; Kahler, Christopher W.; Rohsenow, Damaris J.; McGeary, John E.; Knopik, Valerie S.; MacKillop, James

2016-01-01

Background Incentive salience is a multidimensional construct that includes craving, drug value relative to other reinforcers, and implicit motivation such as attentional bias to drug cues. Laboratory cue reactivity (CR) paradigms have been used to evaluate marijuana incentive salience with measures of craving, but not with behavioral economic measures of marijuana demand or implicit attentional processing tasks. Methods This within-subjects study used a new CR paradigm to examine multiple dimensions of marijuana’s incentive salience and to compare CR-induced increases in craving and demand. Frequent marijuana users (N=93, 34% female) underwent exposure to neutral cues then to lit marijuana cigarettes. Craving, marijuana demand via a marijuana purchase task, and heart rate were assessed after each cue set. A modified Stroop task with cannabis and control words was completed after the marijuana cues as a measure of attentional bias. Results Relative to neutral cues, marijuana cues significantly increased subjective craving and demand indices of intensity (i.e., drug consumed at $0) and Omax (i.e., peak drug expenditure). Elasticity significantly decreased following marijuana cues, reflecting sustained purchase despite price increases. Craving was correlated with demand indices (r’s: 0.23–0.30). Marijuana users displayed significant attentional bias for cannabis-related words after marijuana cues. Cue-elicited increases in intensity were associated with greater attentional bias for marijuana words. Conclusions Greater incentive salience indexed by subjective, behavioral economic, and implicit measures was observed after marijuana versus neutral cues, supporting multidimensional assessment. The study highlights the utility of a behavioral economic approach in detecting cue-elicited changes in marijuana incentive salience. PMID:27515723

[Economic evaluation of the demand of medical care for mental health in Mexico: schizophrenia and depression, 1996-2000].

Science.gov (United States)

Arredondo, Armando; Ramos, René; Zúñiga, Alexis

2003-01-01

Financing protection for both, users and providers of health care services is one of the main objectives of National Program of Health in Mexico, 2001-2006. In fact one of the elements of the present health care reform initiatives is need for the efficient allocation of financial resources, using resource allocation schemes by specific health care demands that combine both the economic, clinical and the epidemiological perspectives. The evaluation of such schemes has been approached in several ways; however, in the case of mental health services, there is dearth of studies that use economic assessment methods. Moreover, such studies are of limited scope, often a response to unmated health needs, disregarding the economic implication for health services production and financing and ensuing medical care market imbalances. This paper presents the results of an evaluative research work aimed to assess the average cost of depression and schizophrenia case management, the financial resources required to meet the health care demands by type of institution, period 1996-2000, in Mexico by type of health care provider. The case management average cost for schizophrenia was $211.00 US, and that for depression was $221.00 US. The demand of services for both conditions in each type of institution showed that the greatest relative demands (96% of the national total for depression and 94% of the national total for schizophrenia) occur in three institutions: IMSS, SSA and ISSSTE. The greatest demand of the health services for the two study condition corresponded to those insured by the IMSS, followed by those uninsured who use the SSA services, and those insured by the ISSSTE. The case management costs for mental conditions are in the middle range between hypertension and diabetes in the upper end, pneumonia and diarrhea in the lower end. The case managment costs of health care demands for the selected tracer conditions differ considerably among institutions for insure populations

Neuroeconomics and behavioral health economics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Torben

2009-01-01

  Objective: Neuroeconomics integrates behavioral economics, psychology and neuroscience. Recently, this line of research is summarized in a neuroeconomic model (NeM) which addresses behavioral health from a new angle as surveyed in this study. Data and Method Firstly, NeM is used as framework...... for explanation of the neural dynamics of normal decision making. Secondly, the literature is reviewed for evidence on hypothesized applications of NeM in behavioral health. Results I. The present bias as documented by neuroeconomic game-trials is explained by NeM as rooted in the basal activation of Amygdala...... mechanism. In this case neuroeconomics may serve as an evidence-based public monitoring across specific historical meditation settings. Conclusion Neuroeconomics reveal the action-mechanism of dominant behavioral health interventions as integrated home care for patients suffering from stroke, heart failure...

Technical and economical tools to assess customer demand response in the commercial sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alvarez Bel, Carlos; Ortega, Manuel Alcazar; Escriva, Guillermo Escriva [Institute for Energy Engineering, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, Camino de Vera, s/n, edificio 8E, escalera F, 5a planta. 46022 Valencia (Spain); Gabaldon Marin, Antonio [Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Universidad Politecnica de Cartagena, Campus de la Muralla al Mar. 30202 Cartagena (Spain)

2009-10-15

The authors present a methodology to evaluate and quantify the economic parameters (costs and benefits) attached to customer electricity consumption by analyzing the service provided by the different ''pieces'' of absorbed electricity. The first step of this methodology is to perform a process oriented market segmentation to identify segments according to their flexibility potential. After that, a procedure based on comprehensive simulations to identify and quantify the actual demand that can be managed in the short term is presented and, finally, the required economic analysis is performed. The methodology, which is demonstrated with some applications to the commercial sector, not only helps the customers to integrate in flexible distribution systems but also offers the necessary economical parameters for them to integrate in electricity markets. (author)

Import demand of crude oil and economic growth. Evidence from India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghosh, Sajal

2009-01-01

This study establishes a long-run equilibrium relationship among quantity of crude oil import, income and price of the imported crude in India for the time span 1970-1971 to 2005-2006 using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration. Empirical results show that the long-term income elasticity of imported crude in India is 1.97 and there exists a unidirectional long-run causality running from economic growth to crude oil import. So reduction of crude oil import will not affect the future economic growth in India in the long-run. India should take various energy efficiency and demand side management measures in transport sector along with other measures like expanding and strengthening indigenous resource-base, substituting imported fuels by domestic fuels and de-controlling the price of petroleum products to reduce its import dependence. (author)

Dopamine D₂-Like Receptors and Behavioral Economics of Food Reinforcement.

Science.gov (United States)

Soto, Paul L; Hiranita, Takato; Xu, Ming; Hursh, Steven R; Grandy, David K; Katz, Jonathan L

2016-03-01

Previous studies suggest dopamine (DA) D2-like receptor involvement in the reinforcing effects of food. To determine contributions of the three D2-like receptor subtypes, knockout (KO) mice completely lacking DA D2, D3, or D4 receptors (D2R, D3R, or D4R KO mice) and their wild-type (WT) littermates were exposed to a series of fixed-ratio (FR) food-reinforcement schedules in two contexts: an open economy with additional food provided outside the experimental setting and a closed economy with all food earned within the experimental setting. A behavioral economic model was used to quantify reinforcer effectiveness with food pellets obtained as a function of price (FR schedule value) plotted to assess elasticity of demand. Under both economies, as price increased, food pellets obtained decreased more rapidly (ie, food demand was more elastic) in DA D2R KO mice compared with WT littermates. Extinction of responding was studied in two contexts: by eliminating food deliveries and by delivering food independently of responding. A hyperbolic model quantified rates of extinction. Extinction in DA D2R KO mice occurred less rapidly compared with WT mice in both contexts. Elasticity of food demand was higher in DA D4R KO than WT mice in the open, but not closed, economy. Extinction of responding in DA D4R KO mice was not different from that in WT littermates in either context. No differences in elasticity of food demand or extinction rate were obtained in D3R KO mice and WT littermates. These results indicate that the D2R is the primary DA D2-like receptor subtype mediating the reinforcing effectiveness of food.

Behavioral Economics and Public Opinion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sunstein, Cass R.; Reisch, Lucia A.

2018-01-01

In recent years, there has been a great deal of discussion of uses of behavioral economics in policy circles, with a focus on empirical, conceptual and ethical questions. On the basis of data from many nations, our forthcoming book asks and answers a question pressing in democratic......-approve of behaviorally informed polices? (Short answer: Yes.) Do citizens of different nations agree with each other? (Short answer: Mostly yes, but with intriguing qualifications, involving diverging levels of trust and different evaluations of liberty.) This article previews our book, providing new insights...

Economic feasibility of a wood biomass energy system under evolving demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giorgio Guariso

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In some European regions, particularly in mountainous areas, the demand for energy is evolving due to the decrease of resident population and the adoption of energy efficiency measures. Such changes are rapid enough to significantly impact on the planning process of wood-to-energy chains that are supposed to work for the following 20–25 years. The paper summarizes a study in an Italian pre-alpine district where some municipality shows a declining resident population together with increasing summer tourism. The planning of conversion plants to exploit the local availability of wood is formulated as a mathematical programming problem that maximizes the economic return of the investment, under time-varying parameters that account for the demand evolution. Such a demand is estimated from current trends, while biomass availability and transport is computed from the local cartography, through standard GIS operations. Altogether, the mixed integer optimization problem has 11 possible plant locations of different sizes and technologies taking their feedstock from about 200 parcels. The problem is solved with a commercial software package and shows that the optimal plan changes if one considers the foreseen evolution of the energy demand. As it always happen in this type of biomass-based plants, while the problem formulation is general and may be applied to other cases, the solution obtained is strongly dependent on local values and thus cannot be extrapolated to different contexts.

Economics of carbon dioxide capture and utilization-a supply and demand perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Naims, Henriette

2016-11-01

Lately, the technical research on carbon dioxide capture and utilization (CCU) has achieved important breakthroughs. While single CO 2 -based innovations are entering the markets, the possible economic effects of a large-scale CO 2 utilization still remain unclear to policy makers and the public. Hence, this paper reviews the literature on CCU and provides insights on the motivations and potential of making use of recovered CO 2 emissions as a commodity in the industrial production of materials and fuels. By analyzing data on current global CO 2 supply from industrial sources, best practice benchmark capture costs and the demand potential of CO 2 utilization and storage scenarios with comparative statics, conclusions can be drawn on the role of different CO 2 sources. For near-term scenarios the demand for the commodity CO 2 can be covered from industrial processes, that emit CO 2 at a high purity and low benchmark capture cost of approximately 33 €/t. In the long-term, with synthetic fuel production and large-scale CO 2 utilization, CO 2 is likely to be available from a variety of processes at benchmark costs of approx. 65 €/t. Even if fossil-fired power generation is phased out, the CO 2 emissions of current industrial processes would suffice for ambitious CCU demand scenarios. At current economic conditions, the business case for CO 2 utilization is technology specific and depends on whether efficiency gains or substitution of volatile priced raw materials can be achieved. Overall, it is argued that CCU should be advanced complementary to mitigation technologies and can unfold its potential in creating local circular economy solutions.

Emotions, perceptions and economic behavior. A critical-philosophical approach to the place of Psychology in Economics

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Vicente Caballero de la Torre

2012-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the origin of the issue of empathy in the History of Ideas and its importance in economics, as well as its revitalization. It concludes that it is not the study of empathy, so fashionable today, but the study of decision making the place where Economics can find the nature of emotions in relation to human behavior. This nature is its power to inhibit behavior. The study of repentance is itself more interesting and helpful for the economy than the study of empathy. Finally, the institutional approach is presented as the best in order to understand the issues related to economic human behavior

North American oil demand outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stewart, M.B.

1995-01-01

An understanding of the relationship of economic growth and potential petroleum product demand is needed to forecast the potential for North American oil demand growth as well as knowledge of world supply and price. The bullish expectations for economic growth in the US and Canada auger well for North American refiners and marketeers. The growth in world economic output forecast, however, means a larger oil demand and an increase in OPEC's pricing power. Such price increases could depress North American oil demand growth. (author)

Understanding consumer decisions using behavioral economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Zandstra, Elizabeth H; Miyapuram, Krishna P; Tobler, Philippe N

2013-01-01

Consumers make many decisions in everyday life involving finances, food, and health. It is known from behavioral economics research that people are often driven by short-term gratification, that is, people tend to choose the immediate, albeit smaller reward. But choosing the delayed reward, that is, delaying the gratification, can actually be beneficial. How can we motivate consumers to resist the "now" and invest in their future, leading to sustainable or healthy habits? We review recent developments from behavioral and neuroimaging studies that are relevant for understanding consumer decisions. Further, we present results from our field research that examined whether we can increase the perceived value of a (delayed) environmental benefit using tailored communication, that is, change the way it is framed. More specifically, we investigated whether we can boost the value of an abstract, long-term "green" claim of a product by expressing it as a concrete, short-term benefit. This is a new application area for behavioral economics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economics of Metal Markets

OpenAIRE

Tilton, J.E.

1984-01-01

Simple economic principles can provide useful insights into the behavior of metal markets. In applying these principles, however, the analyst must take into account technology, market structure, government policies, and other institutional factors influencing the nature of metal supply and demand. Knowledge of both economics and the metal markets is essential. One without the other is likely to lead to sterile or even misleading results. In support of the above conclusion, this study exa...

A comparison of economic demand and conditioned-cued reinstatement of methamphetamine- or food-seeking in rats

Science.gov (United States)

Galuska, Chad M.; Banna, Kelly M.; Willse, Lena Vaughn; Yahyavi-Firouz-Abadi, Noushin; See, Ronald E.

2011-01-01

The present study examined whether continued access to methamphetamine or food reinforcement changed economic demand for both. The relationship between demand elasticity and cue-induced reinstatement was also determined. Male Long-Evans rats lever-pressed under increasing fixed-ratio requirements for either food pellets or methamphetamine (20 μg/50 μl infusion). For two groups, demand curves were obtained before and after continued access (12 days, 2-hr sessions) to the reinforcer under a fixed-ratio 3 schedule. A third group was given continued access to methamphetamine between determinations of food demand and a fourth group abstained from methamphetamine between determinations. All groups underwent extinction sessions, followed by a cue-induced reinstatement test. Although food demand was less elastic than methamphetamine demand, continued access to methamphetamine shifted the methamphetamine demand curve upward and the food demand curve downward. In some rats, methamphetamine demand also became less elastic. Continued access to food had no effect on food demand. Reinstatement was higher after continued access to methamphetamine relative to food. For methamphetamine, elasticity and reinstatement measures were correlated. We conclude that continued access to methamphetamine – but not food – alters demand in ways suggestive of methamphetamine accruing reinforcing strength. Demand elasticity and reinstatement measures appear to be related indices of drug-seeking. PMID:21597363

Longitudinal Mediation Modeling of Unhealthy Behaviors as Mediators between Workplace Demands/Support and Depressive Symptoms

Science.gov (United States)

Magnusson Hanson, Linda L.; Peristera, Paraskevi; Chungkham, Holendro Singh; Westerlund, Hugo

2016-01-01

Lifestyle has been regarded as a key pathway through which adverse psychosocial working characteristics can give rise to long-term health problems. The purpose of this study was to estimate the indirect/mediated effect of health behaviors in the longitudinal work characteristics-depression relationship. The analyses were based on the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health, including 3706 working participants with repeat survey measures on four occasions (2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014). Psychosocial work characteristics including demands and social support were analyzed in relation to depressive symptoms. Autoregressive longitudinal mediation models using structural equation modeling were used to estimate the intermediate effects of unhealthy behaviors including current smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, unhealthy diet and physical inactivity. Both workplace demands and social support were related to later depressive symptoms. In bivariate models we found no significant paths from workplace demands to health behaviors, but two out of three significant time-specific paths from workplace support to excessive drinking and from excessive drinking to depressive symptoms. Social support was also associated with subsequent unhealthy diet, and one path from unhealthy diet to depressive symptoms was found. However, despite indications of certain longitudinal relationships between psychosocial working conditions and health behaviors as well as between health behaviors and depressive symptoms, no significant intermediate effects were found (p>0.05). We conclude that changes in unhealthy behaviors over a period of two years are unlikely to act as strong intermediaries in the longitudinal relationship between job demands and depressive symptoms and between social support and depressive symptoms. PMID:28036376

Longitudinal Mediation Modeling of Unhealthy Behaviors as Mediators between Workplace Demands/Support and Depressive Symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Magnusson Hanson, Linda L; Peristera, Paraskevi; Chungkham, Holendro Singh; Westerlund, Hugo

2016-01-01

Lifestyle has been regarded as a key pathway through which adverse psychosocial working characteristics can give rise to long-term health problems. The purpose of this study was to estimate the indirect/mediated effect of health behaviors in the longitudinal work characteristics-depression relationship. The analyses were based on the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health, including 3706 working participants with repeat survey measures on four occasions (2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014). Psychosocial work characteristics including demands and social support were analyzed in relation to depressive symptoms. Autoregressive longitudinal mediation models using structural equation modeling were used to estimate the intermediate effects of unhealthy behaviors including current smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, unhealthy diet and physical inactivity. Both workplace demands and social support were related to later depressive symptoms. In bivariate models we found no significant paths from workplace demands to health behaviors, but two out of three significant time-specific paths from workplace support to excessive drinking and from excessive drinking to depressive symptoms. Social support was also associated with subsequent unhealthy diet, and one path from unhealthy diet to depressive symptoms was found. However, despite indications of certain longitudinal relationships between psychosocial working conditions and health behaviors as well as between health behaviors and depressive symptoms, no significant intermediate effects were found (p>0.05). We conclude that changes in unhealthy behaviors over a period of two years are unlikely to act as strong intermediaries in the longitudinal relationship between job demands and depressive symptoms and between social support and depressive symptoms.

View from Behavioral Economics Theory: Case of Latvian Rural Entrepreneurs

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Igo Cals

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The theory of classical economics treats entrepreneurs as subjects who make rational economic decisions. Empirical surveys prove the fact that daily economic decisions made by a separate economic entity can be explained by concepts of behavioral economics rather than classical economics. The economic behavior of entrepreneurs happens to be based on bounded rationality instead of financial justification. The objective of an economic activity presented as economically efficient can turn out to be socially important to a specific entrepreneur and not to national economy as a whole. In the EU countries, agriculture is a subsidised industry of national economy. In this light, status consumption and purchase of positional goods should create a special interest among economists. The objective of this article is to present true reasons of economic decisions made by rural entrepreneurs and to analyse the value hierarchy of Latvian rural entrepreneurs through carrying out a field work and with the help of set of instruments developed by modern economics theory.

Blue water scarcity and the economic impacts of future agricultural trade and demand

Science.gov (United States)

Schmitz, Christoph; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Gerten, Dieter; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Biewald, Anne; Popp, Alexander

2013-06-01

An increasing demand for agricultural goods affects the pressure on global water resources over the coming decades. In order to quantify these effects, we have developed a new agroeconomic water scarcity indicator, considering explicitly economic processes in the agricultural system. The indicator is based on the water shadow price generated by an economic land use model linked to a global vegetation-hydrology model. Irrigation efficiency is implemented as a dynamic input depending on the level of economic development. We are able to simulate the heterogeneous distribution of water supply and agricultural water demand for irrigation through the spatially explicit representation of agricultural production. This allows in identifying regional hot spots of blue water scarcity and explicit shadow prices for water. We generate scenarios based on moderate policies regarding future trade liberalization and the control of livestock-based consumption, dependent on different population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections. Results indicate increased water scarcity in the future, especially in South Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa. In general, water shadow prices decrease with increasing liberalization, foremost in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Policies to reduce livestock consumption in developed countries not only lower the domestic pressure on water but also alleviate water scarcity to a large extent in developing countries. It is shown that one of the two policy options would be insufficient for most regions to retain water scarcity in 2045 on levels comparable to 2005.

The role of husband's and wife's economic activity status in the demand for children.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Y

1987-04-01

Data from Hong Kong were used to examine how the demand for children is affected by the economic returns to different types of market activities. The specific data used was a 1% sample of the 1976 "Hong Kong By-Census of Population." Only women under 50 who were currently married and living with their husbands were included. The households were restricted to land-based and non-farm families with economically active husbands. There were a total of 4128 families in the sample; in 3768 families the wife had experienced at least 1 birth. A simple 1-period model of household production and fertility demand is outlined. Emphasis was on 2 aspects of the demand for children in households who choose to work in the informal sector: children are more readily employed in a family business; and wife's work in a family business or in a wage employment at home is more compatible with childcare activities. Both effects imply that holding constant other characteristics, a higher desired stock of children will be demanded. As expected, an increase in wife's predicted log earnings in home work had a negative effect on the demand for children. The effect was almost always significant. An increase in wife's productivity in the family business, as proxied by her predicted log earnings in the family business, increased the demand for children significantly. This usually is interpreted to be a result of entering a market activity which is compatible with childcare. Another possible explanation is that the price of children is lowered because if children work in the family business then their productive contributions subsidize their parents' consumption. Yet, without direct measures or proxies for these effects, it is not possible to distinguish between them. An increase in husband's predicted log earnings in wage employment had a significant negative effect on demand for children. This can be interpreted in 2 ways: if an interior solution exists for husband's allocation of time, then a

THE CAUSES OF ECONOMIC CRISIS. A BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATION.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Soim Horatiu Florin

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The cyclical path of economy is a common place in the economic theory. The economic crisis that started in 2007 was not only one of the most severe since the WWII but it came unexpectedly. The cause of the crises and of the surprise consists in the economic models and theories that were founded on the rationality and maximization behavior of the economic actor. People lack the rationality the mainstream economics assume. This is why both economists and simple people do not act as theory predicts and finally economy does not tend toward equilibrium but suffers recurrent crises. This crisis started as a financial one, because of the subprime loans made in USA, but have spread in production sector because of credit frozen, is now in transforming into a social crisis because of austerity measures taken by governments. The paper analyzes the theoretical foundation of economic theory and how the facts that characterize the recent economic evolution fit with the non mainstream theories. It presents the figures of the economic evolution in the last 3 years and explains them based of the agent’s behavior described by Herbert Simon and Daniel Kahneman. Their challenge of mainstream economics is based on an analyze of human behavior. Herbert Simon introduced the concept of bounded rationality as opposed to perfect rationality postulated by neoclassic economics and Daniel Kahneman realized experiments that proved that people cannot stick with the performances assumed by mainstream economics. Their conclusion permit to understand the approach of George Soros who says that people actions are bounded by reflexivity and as a consequences sometimes economy move not toward but far from equilibrium, creating bubbles that end in financial and economic crises. As Akerlof mention the cause of the crisis is the reliance of a false theory which said that we are safe. The conclusion is that we need new theories more close to the real life and an agent description

75 FR 50783 - Committee for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences Notice of Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2010-08-17

... NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION ADVISORY Committee for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences..., Behavioral, and Economic Sciences ( 1171). Date/Time: September 7, 2010; 8:30 a.m. to 6 p.m. September 8... Assistant Director, Directorate for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences, National Science Foundation...

Matching presentational tools' ontology to part-task demands to foster problem-solving in business economics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Slof, Bert; Erkens, Gijsbert; Kirschner, Paul A.

2011-01-01

Slof, B., Erkens, G., & Kirschner, P. A. (2010, July). Matching representational tools’ ontology to part-task demands to foster problem-solving in business economics. In K. Gomez, L. Lyons, & J. Radinsky (Eds.), Learning in the Disciplines: Proceedings of the 9th International Conference of the

Tax Compliance Models: From Economic to Behavioral Approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Larissa Margareta BĂTRÂNCEA

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The paper reviews the models of tax compliance with an emphasis on economic and behavioral perspectives. Although the standard tax evasion model of Allingham and Sandmo and other similar economic models capture some important aspects of tax compliance (i.e., taxpayers’ response to increases in tax rate, audit probability, penalty rate they do not suffice the need for an accurate prediction of taxpayers’ behavior. The reason is that they do not offer a comprehensive perspective on the sociological and psychological factors which shape compliance (i.e., attitudes, beliefs, norms, perceptions, motivations. Therefore, the researchers have considered examining taxpayers’ inner motivations, beliefs, perceptions, attitudes in order to accurately predict taxpayers’ behavior. As a response to their quest, behavioral models of tax compliance have emerged. Among the sociological and psychological factors which shape tax compliance, the ‘slippery slope’ framework singles out trust in authorities and the perception of the power of authorities. The aim of the paper is to contribute to the understanding of the reasons for which there is a need for a tax compliance model which incorporates both economic and behavioral features and why governments and tax authorities should consider these models when designing fiscal policies.

Economic Value Approach to Industrial Water Demand Management, A Case Study of Chemical Plants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

morteza tahami pour zarandi

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Limitations in water supply to meet the increasing demand have encouraged both planners and researchers to focus attention on water demand management, in which such economic tools as the water pricing system play a major role. A fundamental component of the pricing system is the estimation of the economic value of water, which reflects a firm’s maximum affordable water price or the ultimate elasticity of industrial water. The present study was conducted to estimate the economic value of water for basic chemical plants, excluding fertilizers and nitrogen compounds (code 2411, representing the four-digit ISIC industrial codes which account for about 14% of the total industrial water consumption. The econometric method of production function within the framework of panel data and the residual method were used. Data were collected from the Census of medium-sized businesses carried out by the Statistical Center of Iran over the period 1997–2013.  Results showed that one cubic meter of water allocated to the plants surveyed creates a value of 3,7071 Rials, which shows a large gap with the current purchase price of 5685 Rials. Moreover, it was found that the present water prices account for only about 1.3 percent of the total production cost of basic chemicals, excluding fertilizers and nitrogen compounds. It may, thus, be concluded that it is reasonable to increase the present water tariffs and discriminate among the various manufacturing codes by differences in tariffs in order to achieve water demand management goals. Finally, the information emerging from the study may be exploited to improve the revenues earned by water authorities or to carry out feasibility studies of industrial water development projects.

The different modes of hydro-economic analysis (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Harou, J. J.; Binions, O.; Erfani, T.

2013-12-01

In the face of growing water demands, climate change and spatial and temporal water access variability, accurately assessing the economic impacts of proposed water resource management changes is useful. The objective of this project funded by UK Water Industry Research was to present and demonstrate a framework for identifying and using the ';value of water' to enable water utilities and their regulators to make better decisions. A hydro-economic model can help evaluate water management options in terms of their hydrological and economic impact at different locations throughout a catchment over time. In this talk we discuss three modes in which hydro-economic models can be implemented: evaluative, behavioral and prescriptive. In evaluation mode economic water demand and benefit functions are used to post-process water resource management model results to assess the economic impacts (over space and time) of a policy under consideration. In behavioral hydro-economic models users are represented as agents and the economics is used to help predict their actions. In prescriptive mode optimization is used to find the most economically efficient management actions such as allocation patterns or source selection. These three types of hydro-economic analysis are demonstrated on a UK watershed (Great River Ouse) that includes 97 different water abstractors from amongst the public water supply, agriculture, industry and energy plant cooling sectors. The following issues under dry and normal historical conditions were investigated: Supply/demand investment planning, societal cost of environmental flows, water market prices, and scarcity-sensitive charges for water rights. The talk discusses which hydro-economic modeling mode is used to study each of these issues and why; example results are shown and discussed. The topic of how hydro-economic models can be built and deployed effectively is covered along with how existing water utility operational and planning tools can be

Proposers’ Economic Status Affects Behavioral and Neural Responses to Unfairness

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Yijie Zheng

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Economic status played an important role in the modulation of economic decision making. The present fMRI study aimed at investigating how economic status modulated behavioral and neural responses to unfairness in a modified Ultimatum Game (UG. During scanning, participants played as responders in the UG, and they were informed of the economic status of proposers before receiving offers. At the behavioral level, higher rejection rates and lower fairness ratings were revealed when proposers were in high economic status than in low economic status. Besides, the most time-consuming decisions tended to occur at lower unfairness level when the proposers were in high (relative to low economic status. At the neural level, stronger activation of left thalamus was revealed when fair offers were proposed by proposers in high rather than in low economic status. Greater activation of right medial prefrontal cortex was revealed during acceptance to unfair offers in high economic status condition rather than in low economic status condition. Taken together, these findings shed light on the significance of proposers’ economic status in responders’ social decision making in UG.

Kahneman and Tversky and the Origin of Behavioral Economics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heukelom, F.

2007-01-01

Kahneman and Tversky and their behavioral economics stand in a long tradition of applying mathematics to human behavior. In the seventeenth century, attempts to describe rational behavior in mathematical terms run into problems with the formulation of the St. Petersburg paradox. Bernoulli’s

Technical and economical analysis of an induced demand in the photovoltaic sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciorba, Umberto; Pauli, Francesco; Menna, Pietro

2004-01-01

We analyse the potential economic impact of a demand of photovoltaic (PV) devices in Morocco, in terms of induced production and job creation. In Morocco a high potential for PV installations exists as proved by the number of national and international deployment initiatives currently underway. In our study, we first describe the manufacturing process providing as final output the solar modules and associate the corresponding costs to each step of the process. These costs are needed to determine the technical coefficients of an ad hoc PV sector to be added to the Morocco Leontief matrix. Then, using the input-output methodology, we evaluate the economic impact of the production of 5 MW p modules a year under different hypotheses. A production of 5 MW p PV modules, which require an overall investment of euro 16.3 millions, increases production of euro 57.6 millions if cells are locally produced and of euro 22.3 millions when the cells are imported, creating 2570 and 489 jobs, respectively. These results outline the importance of availability of intermediate inputs in local economical context

Applying Behavioral Economics to Public Health Policy: Illustrative Examples and Promising Directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Matjasko, Jennifer L; Cawley, John H; Baker-Goering, Madeleine M; Yokum, David V

2016-05-01

Behavioral economics provides an empirically informed perspective on how individuals make decisions, including the important realization that even subtle features of the environment can have meaningful impacts on behavior. This commentary provides examples from the literature and recent government initiatives that incorporate concepts from behavioral economics in order to improve health, decision making, and government efficiency. The examples highlight the potential for behavioral economics to improve the effectiveness of public health policy at low cost. Although incorporating insights from behavioral economics into public health policy has the potential to improve population health, its integration into government public health programs and policies requires careful design and continual evaluation of such interventions. Limitations and drawbacks of the approach are discussed. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

Emotional responses to behavioral economic incentives for health behavior change.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Swaluw, Koen; Lambooij, Mattijs S; Mathijssen, Jolanda J P; Zeelenberg, Marcel; Polder, Johan J; Prast, Henriëtte M

2018-03-05

Many people aim to change their lifestyle, but have trouble acting on their intentions. Behavioral economic incentives and related emotions can support commitment to personal health goals, but the related emotions remain unexplored. In a regret lottery, winners who do not attain their health goals do not get their prize but receive feedback on what their forgone earnings would have been. This counterfactual feedback should provoke anticipated regret and increase commitment to health goals. We explored which emotions were actually expected upon missing out on a prize due to unsuccessful weight loss and which incentive-characteristics influence their likelihood and intensity. Participants reported their expected emotional response after missing out on a prize in one of 12 randomly presented incentive-scenarios, which varied in incentive type, incentive size and deadline distance. Participants primarily reported feeling disappointment, followed by regret. Regret was expected most when losing a lottery prize (vs. a fixed incentive) and intensified with prize size. Multiple features of the participant and the lottery incentive increase the occurrence and intensity of regret. As such, our findings can be helpful in designing behavioral economic incentives that leverage emotions to support health behavior change.

The behavioral economics of violence.

Science.gov (United States)

Rachlin, Howard

2004-12-01

From the viewpoint of teleological behaviorism the first question to ask in attempting to understand any behavior, including violent behavior, is: What are its contingencies of reward and punishment? Or, to put the question in economic terms: What are the short-term and long-term costs and benefits that such behavior entails? Let us therefore consider the costs and benefits of youth violence. Among the short-term costs of violent behavior are the physical effort of the act, the possibility of immediate physical retaliation, immediate social disapproval, and the opportunity cost of other social acts that the violent behavior takes the place of (you can't be affectionate and violent at the same time, for instance). Among the immediate benefits of violent behavior are the intrinsic satisfaction of the violent act itself and any extrinsic benefit; if A violently appropriates B's new sneakers then obtaining the sneakers reinforces A's violence. These immediate benefits may well outweigh the costs in many contexts. Among the long-term costs of violent behavior are delayed retaliation, possible social disapproval and loss of social support, rejection from a social group, job loss, and health risks associated with a violent lifestyle. Among the long-term benefits are long-term intimidation of others (your neighbor is less likely to build a fence on your property if you have a reputation for violence), and a possibly exciting lifestyle. These long-term benefits may well be outweighed by the long-term costs. Opposition of long-term net costs to short-term net benefits, where it exists, creates a personal self-control trap: Overall satisfaction may decrease monotonically with rate of the target behavior but, regardless of its rate, the immediate satisfaction of doing it is always higher than that of not doing it. In the case of violent behavior, this trap is exacerbated by the fact that as a person's violence increases, net immediate reinforcement also increases (due to

Religion, Ethnicity and Geography: A Cross-Cultural Analysis of Demand for Education in Ghana

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blunch, Niels-Hugo

2003-01-01

Most cross-cultural research of demand behavior is focused at cross-country studies. For Sub-Saharan Africa, however, the fact that the borders were more or less arbitrarily drawn by the colonial powers suggests that demand behavior - including the demand for education - in this context are more...... affected by within country factors such as ethnicity, geographical location and religion. On this premise, we analyze the demand for education in Ghana from a cross-cultural perspective. A substantial share of Ghanaian youth and young adults has never attended school. As education is an important vehicle...... for economic development this is (or should be) a point of concern to both the national government and international development organizations. On this background, this study analyzes the demand for education in Ghana to try to understand the main factors underlying this. The focus is on cross...

Behavioral economic substitution between conventional cigarettes and e-cigarettes differs as a function of the frequency of e-cigarette use.

Science.gov (United States)

Snider, Sarah E; Cummings, K Michael; Bickel, Warren K

2017-08-01

Models measuring the interactions between consumption of conventional cigarettes and electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) in the marketplace are becoming vital forecast tools as the popularity of e-cigarettes increases and policy on tobacco products changes. Behavioral economics, which involves the integration of psychology and consumer demand, can be used to measure individuals' purchase behavior under different marketplace conditions. Our goal was to measure hypothetical conventional cigarette and e-cigarette purchasing among smokers with varying e-cigarette use patterns. Daily cigarette smokers were recruited using Amazon Mechanical Turk, an online crowdsourcing tool. Participants were asked about their frequency of e-cigarette use and to complete hypothetical single and cross-commodity purchase tasks. Frequency of e-cigarette use differentially affected how individuals consumed both conventional and e- cigarettes in different hypothetical marketplace conditions. The present study demonstrates four main findings: 1) the demand for conventional cigarettes was the lowest in those with greater frequency of e-cigarette use, 2) the demand for e-cigarettes was the highest in those with greater frequency of e-cigarette use, 3) when both products were available together, daily e-cigarette users purchased more e-cigarettes, but e-cigarettes served as a substitute for cigarettes in all groups regardless of frequency of use, and 4) the demand for conventional cigarette demand was lower in frequent e-cigarette users when e-cigarettes were concurrently available. Together, these data suggest that price and marketplace conditions will impact purchasing behavior of conventional and e-cigarettes users heterogeneously. Therefore, frequency of use patterns should be considered when implementing novel policies and/or marketplace changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dopamine D2-Like Receptors and Behavioral Economics of Food Reinforcement

Science.gov (United States)

Soto, Paul L; Hiranita, Takato; Xu, Ming; Hursh, Steven R; Grandy, David K; Katz, Jonathan L

2016-01-01

Previous studies suggest dopamine (DA) D2-like receptor involvement in the reinforcing effects of food. To determine contributions of the three D2-like receptor subtypes, knockout (KO) mice completely lacking DA D2, D3, or D4 receptors (D2R, D3R, or D4R KO mice) and their wild-type (WT) littermates were exposed to a series of fixed-ratio (FR) food-reinforcement schedules in two contexts: an open economy with additional food provided outside the experimental setting and a closed economy with all food earned within the experimental setting. A behavioral economic model was used to quantify reinforcer effectiveness with food pellets obtained as a function of price (FR schedule value) plotted to assess elasticity of demand. Under both economies, as price increased, food pellets obtained decreased more rapidly (ie, food demand was more elastic) in DA D2R KO mice compared with WT littermates. Extinction of responding was studied in two contexts: by eliminating food deliveries and by delivering food independently of responding. A hyperbolic model quantified rates of extinction. Extinction in DA D2R KO mice occurred less rapidly compared with WT mice in both contexts. Elasticity of food demand was higher in DA D4R KO than WT mice in the open, but not closed, economy. Extinction of responding in DA D4R KO mice was not different from that in WT littermates in either context. No differences in elasticity of food demand or extinction rate were obtained in D3R KO mice and WT littermates. These results indicate that the D2R is the primary DA D2-like receptor subtype mediating the reinforcing effectiveness of food. PMID:26205210

BEHAVIORAL INPUTS TO THE THEORETICAL APPROACH OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sinziana BALTATESCU

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The current economic and financial crisis gave room for the theoretical debates to reemerge. The economic reality challenged the mainstream neoclassical approach leaving the opportunity for the Austrian School, Post Keynesianism or Institutionalists to bring in front theories that seem to better explain the economic crisis and thus, leaving space for more efficient economic policies to result. In this context, the main assumptions of the mainstream theoretical approach are challenged and reevaluated, behavioral economics is one of the main challengers. Without developing in an integrated school of thought yet, behavioral economics brings new elements within the framework of economic thinking. How are the main theoretical approaches integrating these new elements and whether this process is going to narrow the theory or enrich it to be more comprehensive are questions to which this paper tries to answer, or, at least, to leave room for an answer.

Emotional responses to behavioral economic incentives for health behavior change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Swaluw, Koen; Lambooij, Mattijs S.; Mathijssen, Jolanda J.P.; Zeelenberg, Marcel; Polder, Johan J.; Prast, Henriëtte M.

2018-01-01

Many people aim to change their lifestyle, but have trouble acting on their intentions. Behavioral economic incentives and related emotions can support commitment to personal health goals, but the related emotions remain unexplored. In a regret lottery, winners who do not attain their health goals

Emotional Responses to Behavioral Economic Incentives for Health Behavior Change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Swaluw, Koen; Lambooij, Mattijs S; Mathijssen, Jolanda; Zeelenberg, Marcel; Polder, Johan; Prast, Henriette

2018-01-01

Many people aim to change their lifestyle, but have trouble acting on their intentions. Behavioral economic incentives and related emotions can support commitment to personal health goals, but the related emotions remain unexplored. In a regret lottery, winners who do not attain their health goals

Socio-economic differences in health risk behavior in adolescence : Do they exist?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tuinstra, J; Groothoff, JW; Van den Heuvel, WJA; Post, D

Socio-economic differences in risk behaviors in adolescence can be seen as a prelude to the re-emergence of socio-economic health differences in adulthood. We studied whether or not socio-economic differences in health risk behaviors are present in male and female adolescents in The Netherlands. The

Towards a Theory of Revealed Economic Behavior: The Economic-Neurosciences Interface

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pennings, J.M.E.; Garcia, P.; Hendrix, E.M.T.

2005-01-01

Based on recent findings from economics and the neurosciences, we present a conceptual decision-making model that provides insight into human decision-making and illustrates how behavioral outcomes are transformed into phenomena. The model may be viewed as a bridge between the seemingly disparate

Encouraging Healthful Dietary Behavior in a Hospital Cafeteria: A Field Study Using Theories from Social Psychology and Behavioral Economics

OpenAIRE

Mazza, Mary Carol

2013-01-01

Public policy efforts to curb obesity often adhere to a rational actor model of human behavior, asserting that consumer behavior will change provided proper economic incentives, nutritional information, and health education. However, rigorous academic research related to such questions remains limited in scope and appears inconclusive as to the success of such economic and cognitive interventions. In contrast, research in social psychology and behavioral economics suggests that decision mak...

Further evidence of close correspondence for alcohol demand decision making for hypothetical and incentivized rewards.

Science.gov (United States)

Amlung, Michael; MacKillop, James

2015-04-01

Alcohol purchase tasks (APTs) are increasingly being used to assess behavioral economic demand for alcohol. Prior studies utilizing APTs have typically assessed demand for hypothetical outcomes, making the extent to which these hypothetical measures reflect preferences when actual rewards are at stake an important empirical question. This study examined alcohol demand across hypothetical and incentivized APTs. Nineteen male heavy drinkers completed two APTs - one for hypothetical alcohol and another in which one randomly-selected outcome was provided. Participants were given an opportunity to consume the alcohol associated with their choice on the incentivized APT during a self-administration period in a simulated bar environment. Results indicated generally close correspondence between APT versions, though participants were more sensitive to increases in price and tended to consume more at low prices on the incentivized version. Estimated consumption on the incentivized APT was highly correlated with the amount of alcohol consumed in the laboratory (r=.87, pdecision-making when rewards are hypothetical vs. actually available. Implications for behavioral economic approaches to addictive behavior and directions for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Economic Impact on the Construction Industry of Additional Demands Caused by New Environmental Protection Standards (1972)

Science.gov (United States)

New facilities and additions to existing facilities will be required to meet the EPA's new (early 1970s) environmental quality standards. The report examines extent of these additional demands for construction and their economic impacts.

On-demand microbicide products: design matters.

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Sravan Kumar; Rohan, Lisa Cencia

2017-12-01

Sexual intercourse (vaginal and anal) is the predominant mode of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. Topical microbicides used in an on-demand format (i.e., immediately before or after sex) can be part of an effective tool kit utilized to prevent sexual transmission of HIV. The effectiveness of prevention products is positively correlated with adherence, which is likely to depend on user acceptability of the product. The development of an efficacious and acceptable product is therefore paramount for the success of an on-demand product. Acceptability of on-demand products (e.g., gels, films, and tablets) and their attributes is influenced by a multitude of user-specific factors that span behavioral, lifestyle, socio-economic, and cultural aspects. In addition, physicochemical properties of the drug, anatomical and physiological aspects of anorectal and vaginal compartments, issues relating to large-scale production, and cost can impact product development. These factors together with user preferences determine the design space of an effective, acceptable, and feasible on-demand product. In this review, we summarize the interacting factors that together determine product choice and its target product profile.

77 FR 62538 - Advisory Committee for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences; Notice of Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-15

... NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION Advisory Committee for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences..., Behavioral and Economic Sciences ( 1171). Date/Time: November 15, 2012; 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. Place..., Behavioral and Economic Sciences, National Science Foundation, 4201 Wilson Boulevard, Room 905, Arlington...

A comparison of economic demand and conditioned-cued reinstatement of methamphetamine-seeking or food-seeking in rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Galuska, Chad M; Banna, Kelly M; Willse, Lena Vaughn; Yahyavi-Firouz-Abadi, Noushin; See, Ronald E

2011-08-01

This study examined whether continued access to methamphetamine or food reinforcement changed economic demand for both. The relationship between demand elasticity and cue-induced reinstatement was also determined. Male Long-Evans rats were lever pressed under increasing fixed-ratio requirements for either food pellets or methamphetamine (20 μg/50 μl infusion). For two groups, demand curves were obtained before and after continued access (12 days, 2-h sessions) to the reinforcer under a fixed-ratio 3 schedule. A third group was given continued access to methamphetamine between determinations of food demand and a fourth group abstained from methamphetamine between determinations. All groups underwent extinction sessions, followed by a cue-induced reinstatement test. Although food demand was less elastic than methamphetamine demand, continued access to methamphetamine shifted the methamphetamine demand curve upward and the food demand curve downward. In some rats, methamphetamine demand also became less elastic. Continued access to food had no effect on food demand. Reinstatement was higher after continued access to methamphetamine relative to food. For methamphetamine, elasticity and reinstatement measures were correlated. Continued access to methamphetamine, but not food, alters demand in ways suggestive of methamphetamine accruing reinforcing strength. Demand elasticity thus provides a useful measure of abuse liability that may predict future relapse to renewed drug-seeking and drug use.

76 FR 65219 - Advisory Committee for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences; Notice of Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-20

... NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION Advisory Committee for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences..., Behavioral and Economic Sciences ( 1171) Date/Time: November 3, 2011; 1 p.m. to 5:30 p.m. November 4, 2011; 8..., Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences, National Science Foundation, 4201 Wilson Boulevard...

Psychosocial safety climate buffers effects of job demands on depression and positive organizational behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Garry B; Dollard, Maureen F; Winefield, Anthony H; Dormann, Christian; Bakker, Arnold B

2013-01-01

In a general population sample of 2343 Australian workers from a wide ranging employment demographic, we extended research testing the buffering role of psychosocial safety climate (PSC) as a macro-level resource within the health impairment process of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model. Moderated structural equation modeling was used to test PSC as a moderator between emotional and psychological job demands and worker depression compared with control and social support as alternative moderators. We also tested PSC as a moderator between depression and positive organizational behaviors (POB; engagement and job satisfaction) compared with control and social support as moderators. As expected we found PSC moderated the effects of job demands on depression and further moderated the effects of depression on POB with fit to the data that was as good as control and social support as moderators. This study has shown that PSC is a macro-level resource and safety signal for workers acting to reduce demand-induced depression. We conclude that organizations need to focus on the development of a robust PSC that will operate to buffer the effects of workplace psychosocial hazards and to build environments conducive to worker psychological health and positive organizational behaviors.

Economy Over Security: Why Crises Fail to Impact Economic Behavior in East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-01

SECURITY: WHY CRISES FAIL TO IMPACT ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR IN EAST ASIA by Aaron R. Sipos December 2017 Thesis Advisor: Michael Glosny Second...REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE ECONOMY OVER SECURITY: WHY CRISES FAIL TO IMPACT ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR IN EAST...release. Distribution is unlimited. 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This study examines changes in economic behavior in

Demand spillovers of smash-hit papers: evidence from the 'Male Organ Incident'.

Science.gov (United States)

Kässi, Otto; Westling, Tatu

2013-12-01

This study explores the short-run spillover effects of popular research papers. We consider the publicity of 'Male Organ and Economic Growth: Does Size Matter?' as an exogenous shock to economics discussion paper demand, a natural experiment of a sort. In particular, we analyze how the very substantial visibility influenced the downloads of Helsinki Center of Economic Research discussion papers. Difference in differences and regression discontinuity analysis are conducted to elicit the spillover patterns. This study finds that the spillover effect to average economics paper demand is positive and statistically significant. It seems that hit papers increase the exposure of previously less downloaded papers. We find that part of the spillover effect could be attributable to Internet search engines' influence on browsing behavior. Conforming to expected patterns, papers residing on the same web page as the hit paper evidence very significant increases in downloads which also supports the spillover thesis. A11, C21. 97K80.

77 FR 25207 - Advisory Committee for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences; Notice of Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2012-04-27

... NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION Advisory Committee for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences..., Behavioral and Economic Sciences ( 1171). Date/Time: May 17, 2012; 8:30 a.m. to 5:30 p.m.; May 18, 2012; 8:30..., Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences, National Science Foundation, 4201 Wilson Boulevard...

75 FR 25886 - Advisory Committee for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences; Notice of Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2010-05-10

... NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION Advisory Committee for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences..., Behavioral, and Economic Sciences ( 1171). Date/Time: May 20, 2010; 8:30 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. May 21, 2010; 8:30..., Directorate for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences, National Science Foundation, 4201 Wilson Boulevard...

78 FR 25309 - Advisory Committee for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences; Notice of Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2013-04-30

... NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION ADVISORY Advisory Committee for Social, Behavioral and Economic..., Behavioral and Economic Sciences ( 1171) Date/Time: May 20, 2013; 9:00 a.m. to 5:15 p.m. May 21, 2013; 9:00 a..., Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences, National Science Foundation, 4201 Wilson Boulevard...

76 FR 24062 - Advisory Committee for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences; Notice of Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2011-04-29

... NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION Advisory Committee for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences..., Behavioral and Economic Sciences ( 1171) Date/Time: May 19, 2011; 9 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. May 20, 2011; 9 a.m. to..., Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences, National Science Foundation, 4201 Wilson Boulevard...

Field Experiments in Behavioral and Public Economics

OpenAIRE

Bhanot, Syon Pandya

2015-01-01

The three essays in this dissertation present field experiments exploring phenomena in behavioral and public economics in real-world settings. The first essay outlines a field experiment that uses mailers with peer rank information to motivate water conservation. The essay contributes some of the first pieces of evidence on how comparisons with specific peers might influence behavior. The main finding is that while competitive framing of peer information has positive impacts on efficient h...

Assessing efficiency and economic viability of rainwater harvesting systems for meeting non-potable water demands in four climatic zones of China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, S.; Jing, X.

2017-12-01

Rainwater harvesting is now increasingly used to manage urban flood and alleviate water scarcity crisis. In this study, a computational tool based on water balance equation is developed to assess stormwater capture and water saving efficiency and economic viability of rainwater harvesting systems (RHS) in eight cities across four climatic zones of China. It requires daily rainfall, contributing area, runoff losses, first flush volume, storage capacity, daily water demand and economic parameters as inputs. Three non-potable water demand scenarios (i.e., toilet flushing, lawn irrigation, and combination of them) are considered. The water demand for lawn irrigation is estimated using the Cropwat 8.0 and Climwat 2.0. Results indicate that higher water saving efficiency and water supply time reliability can be achieved for RHS with larger storage capacities, for lower water demand scenarios and located in more humid regions, while higher stormwater capture efficiency is associated with larger storage capacity, higher water demand scenarios and less rainfall. For instance, a 40 m3 RHS in Shanghai (humid climate) for lawn irrigation can capture 17% of stormwater, while its water saving efficiency and time reliability can reach 96 % and 98%, respectively. The water saving efficiency and time reliability of a 20 m3 RHS in Xining (semi-arid climate) for toilet flushing are 19% and 16%, respectively, but it can capture 63% of stormwater. With the current values of economic parameters, economic viability of RHS can be achieved in humid and semi-humid regions for reasonably designed RHS; however, it is not financially viable to install RHS in arid regions as the benefit-cost ratio is much smaller than 1.0.

Behaving safely under pressure: The effects of job demands, resources, and safety climate on employee physical and psychosocial safety behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Bronkhorst, Babette

2015-12-01

Previous research has shown that employees who experience high job demands are more inclined to show unsafe behaviors in the workplace. In this paper, we examine why some employees behave safely when faced with these demands while others do not. We add to the literature by incorporating both physical and psychosocial safety climate in the job demands and resources (JD-R) model and extending it to include physical and psychosocial variants of safety behavior. Using a sample of 6230 health care employees nested within 52 organizations, we examined the relationship between job demands and (a) resources, (b) safety climate, and (c) safety behavior. We conducted multilevel analyses to test our hypotheses. Job demands (i.e., work pressure), job resources (i.e., job autonomy, supervisor support, and co-worker support) and safety climate (both physical and psychosocial safety climate) are directly associated with, respectively, lower and higher physical and psychosocial safety behavior. We also found some evidence that safety climate buffers the negative impact of job demands (i.e., work-family conflict and job insecurity) on safety behavior and strengthens the positive impact of job resources (i.e., co-worker support) on safety behavior. Regardless of whether the focus is physical or psychological safety, our results show that strengthening the safety climate within an organization can increase employees' safety behavior. Practical implication: An organization's safety climate is an optimal target of intervention to prevent and ameliorate negative physical and psychological health and safety outcomes, especially in times of uncertainty and change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Tourism Demand in Catalonia: detecting external economic factors

OpenAIRE

Clavería González, Óscar; Datzira, Jordi

2009-01-01

There is a lack of studies on tourism demand in Catalonia. To fill the gap, this paper focuses on detecting the macroeconomic factors that determine tourism demand in Catalonia. We also analyse the relation between these factors and tourism demand. Despite the strong seasonal component and the outliers in the time series of some countries, overnight stays give a better indication of tourism demand in Catalonia than the number of tourists. The degree of linear association between the macroecon...

An economic approach to abortion demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Rothstein, D S

1992-01-01

"This paper uses econometric multiple regression techniques in order to analyze the socioeconomic factors affecting the demand for abortion for the year 1985. A cross-section of the 50 [U.S.] states and Washington D.C. is examined and a household choice theoretical framework is utilized. The results suggest that average price of abortion, disposable personal per capita income, percentage of single women, whether abortions are state funded, unemployment rate, divorce rate, and if the state is located in the far West, are statistically significant factors in the determination of the demand for abortion." excerpt

Economic and energy supply and demand outlook towards FY 2014 of Japan. Japan was in a crucial moment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yanagisawa, Akira; Yoshioka, Takayuki; Suzuki, Hidenori; Choi, Jongwon; Ikarii, Ryohei; Iwata, Sohei; Shibata, Yoshiaki; Ito, Kokichi

2014-01-01

This outlook showed prospects of economy and energy supply and demand (S and D) towards FY2014 of Japan taking account of Japanese economy recovery thanks to 'Abenomics', unclear power S and D balance, restarts of NPPs and increase in renewables dominated by solar PV. Impacts of restart of NPPs were so great and hoped prompt procedures after finishing the highest-level safety assessment. Fast expansion of renewables generating 7% of power generation and their increased burden on consumers (Feed-In-Tariff) required system improvements for adequate and sustainable introduction of renewables. Impacts of removing customs by the TPP increased energy demand due to the economic expansion by 0.9%. Primary energy supply turned to increase due to the expansion of the economic activities while electricity savings and energy conservation exerted downward pressure on demand. As for Macro economy, GDP growth slowed due to retroaction decrease by the last-minute demand of tax raise. Energy consumption decreased in two years due to slowing recovery and both natural gas and coal consumption hit new high. Steady growth of city gas, slight increase of electricity and sharp drop of fuel oil would be for energy sales. CO 2 emissions decreased in FY2014 after hit the historical high in FY2013. (T. Tanaka)

Economic Stress, Emotional Quality of Life, and Problem Behavior in Chinese Adolescents with and without Economic Disadvantage

Science.gov (United States)

Shek, Daniel T. L.

2005-01-01

The relationships between perceived economic stress (current economic hardship and future economic worry) and emotional quality of life (existential well-being, life satisfaction, self-esteem, sense of mastery, psychological morbidity) as well as problem behavior (substance abuse and delinquency) were examined in 1519 Chinese adolescents with and…

Benford's law and the FSD distribution of economic behavioral micro data

Science.gov (United States)

Villas-Boas, Sofia B.; Fu, Qiuzi; Judge, George

2017-11-01

In this paper, we focus on the first significant digit (FSD) distribution of European micro income data and use information theoretic-entropy based methods to investigate the degree to which Benford's FSD law is consistent with the nature of these economic behavioral systems. We demonstrate that Benford's law is not an empirical phenomenon that occurs only in important distributions in physical statistics, but that it also arises in self-organizing dynamic economic behavioral systems. The empirical likelihood member of the minimum divergence-entropy family, is used to recover country based income FSD probability density functions and to demonstrate the implications of using a Benford prior reference distribution in economic behavioral system information recovery.

A behavioral economics perspective on tobacco taxation.

Science.gov (United States)

Cherukupalli, Rajeev

2010-04-01

Economic studies of taxation typically estimate external costs of tobacco use to be low and refrain from recommending large tobacco taxes. Behavioral economics suggests that a rational decision-making process by individuals fully aware of tobacco's hazards might still lead to overconsumption through the psychological tendency to favor immediate gratification over future harm. Taxes can serve as a self-control device to help reduce tobacco use and enable successful quit attempts. Whether taxes are appropriately high depends on how excessively people underrate the harm from tobacco use and varies with a country's circumstances. Such taxes are likely to be more equitable for poorer subgroups than traditional economic analysis suggests, which would strengthen the case for increased tobacco taxation globally.

Autoshaped choice in artificial neural networks: implications for behavioral economics and neuroeconomics.

Science.gov (United States)

Burgos, José E; García-Leal, Óscar

2015-05-01

An existing neural network model of conditioning was used to simulate autoshaped choice. In this phenomenon, pigeons first receive an autoshaping procedure with two keylight stimuli X and Y separately paired with food in a forward-delay manner, intermittently for X and continuously for Y. Then pigeons receive unreinforced choice test trials of X and Y concurrently present. Most pigeons choose Y. This preference for a more valuable response alternative is a form of economic behavior that makes the phenomenon relevant to behavioral economics. The phenomenon also suggests a role for Pavlovian contingencies in economic behavior. The model used, in contrast to others, predicts autoshaping and automaintenance, so it is uniquely positioned to predict autoshaped choice. The model also contemplates neural substrates of economic behavior in neuroeconomics, such as dopaminergic and hippocampal systems. A feedforward neural network architecture was designed to simulate a neuroanatomical differentiation between two environment-behavior relations X-R1 and Y-R2, [corrected] where R1 and R2 denote two different emitted responses (not unconditionally elicited by the reward). Networks with this architecture received a training protocol that simulated an autoshaped-choice procedure. Most networks simulated the phenomenon. Implications for behavioral economics and neuroeconomics, limitations, and the issue of model appraisal are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Day-ahead stochastic economic dispatch of wind integrated power system considering demand response of residential hybrid energy system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Yibo; Xu, Jian; Sun, Yuanzhang; Wei, Congying; Wang, Jing; Ke, Deping; Li, Xiong; Yang, Jun; Peng, Xiaotao; Tang, Bowen

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Improving the utilization of wind power by the demand response of residential hybrid energy system. • An optimal scheduling of home energy management system integrating micro-CHP. • The scattered response capability of consumers is aggregated by demand bidding curve. • A stochastic day-ahead economic dispatch model considering demand response and wind power. - Abstract: As the installed capacity of wind power is growing, the stochastic variability of wind power leads to the mismatch of demand and generated power. Employing the regulating capability of demand to improve the utilization of wind power has become a new research direction. Meanwhile, the micro combined heat and power (micro-CHP) allows residential consumers to choose whether generating electricity by themselves or purchasing from the utility company, which forms a residential hybrid energy system. However, the impact of the demand response with hybrid energy system contained micro-CHP on the large-scale wind power utilization has not been analyzed quantitatively. This paper proposes an operation optimization model of the residential hybrid energy system based on price response, integrating micro-CHP and smart appliances intelligently. Moreover, a novel load aggregation method is adopted to centralize scattered response capability of residential load. At the power grid level, a day-ahead stochastic economic dispatch model considering demand response and wind power is constructed. Furthermore, simulation is conducted respectively on the modified 6-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system. The results show that with the method proposed, the wind power curtailment of the system decreases by 78% in 6-bus system. In the meantime, the energy costs of residential consumers and the operating costs of the power system reduced by 10.7% and 11.7% in 118-bus system, respectively.

An emerging economic view of world natural gas demand and supply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dorsett, W.H.; Ackerman, G.B.

1992-01-01

Natural gas is swiftly moving from a locally traded commodity in regional markets to a globally traded commodity. This paper describes a numerical model of international gas trade which evaluates the effects of inter- and intra-regional gas trade on demand, supply and price. Preliminary evidence indicates natural gas prices are 15 to 30% lower in real terms when inter-regional trade occurs and local consumption of natural gas increases relative to fuel oil in the local market. Natural gas developers or marketers that explicitly consider the inter-regional impacts of gas trade will have a greater likelihood of understanding the risks in marginal projects and are more likely to embrace economic projects and eschew noneconomic projects

Tissue oxygen demand in regulation of the behavior of the cells in the vasculature.

Science.gov (United States)

Barvitenko, Nadezhda N; Aslam, Muhammad; Filosa, Jessica; Matteucci, Elena; Nikinmaa, Mikko; Pantaleo, Antonella; Saldanha, Carlota; Baskurt, Oguz K

2013-08-01

The control of arteriolar diameters in microvasculature has been in the focus of studies on mechanisms matching oxygen demand and supply at the tissue level. Functionally, important vascular elements include EC, VSMC, and RBC. Integration of these different cell types into functional units aimed at matching tissue oxygen supply with tissue oxygen demand is only achieved when all these cells can respond to the signals of tissue oxygen demand. Many vasoactive agents that serve as signals of tissue oxygen demand have their receptors on all these types of cells (VSMC, EC, and RBC) implying that there can be a coordinated regulation of their behavior by the tissue oxygen demand. Such functions of RBC as oxygen carrying by Hb, rheology, and release of vasoactive agents are considered. Several common extra- and intracellular signaling pathways that link tissue oxygen demand with control of VSMC contractility, EC permeability, and RBC functioning are discussed. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Analysis of Current and Future Water Demands in the Upper Indus Basin under IPCC Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios Using a Hydro-Economic WEAP Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Amin

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Pakistan is currently facing physical and economic water scarcity issues that are further complicated by the rapid increase in its population and by climate change. Many studies have focused on the physical water scarcity using hydrological modeling and the measurement of the impact of climate change on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB. However, few studies have concentrated on the importance of the economic water scarcity, that is, the water management issue under the looming impacts of climate change and the population explosion of Pakistan. The purpose of this study is to develop a management strategy which helps to achieve water security and sustainability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB with the help of different socio-economic and climate change scenarios using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning modeling. The streamflow data of five sub-basins (Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, and Astore and the entire Upper Indus Basin (UIB were calibrated (2006–2010 and validated (2011–2014 in the WEAP model. The coefficient of determination and Nash Sutcliffe values for the calibration period ranged from 0.81–0.96. The coefficient of determination and the Nash Sutcliffe values for the validation period ranged from 0.85–0.94. After the development of the WEAP model, the analysis of the unmet water demand and percent coverage of the water demand for the period of 2006–2050 was computed. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth, urbanization, and living standards and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system. The results indicated that the future unmet water demand is likely to reach 134 million cubic meters (mcm by the year 2050 and that the external driving factors are putting more pressure on the supply service. This study further explores the importance of proposed dams (likely to be built until 2025 by WAPDA (Water and Power Development

A joint economic lot-sizing problem with fuzzy demand, defective items and environmental impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Jauhari, W. A.; Laksono, P. W.

2017-11-01

In this paper, a joint economic lot-sizing problem consisting of a vendor and a buyer was proposed. A buyer ordered products from a vendor to fulfill end customer’s demand. A produced a batch of products, and delivered it to the buyer. The production process in the vendor was imperfect and produced a number of defective products. Production rate was assumed to be adjustable to control the output of vendor’s production. A continuous review policy was adopted by the buyer to manage his inventory level. In addition, an average annual demand was considered to be fuzzy rather than constant. The proposed model contributed to the current inventory literature by allowing the inclusion of fuzzy annual demand, imperfect production emission cost, and adjustable production rate. The proposed model also considered carbon emission cost which was resulted from the transportation activity. A mathematical model was developed for obtaining the optimal ordering quantity, safety factor and the number of deliveries so the joint total cost was minimized. Furthermore, an iterative procedure was suggested to determine the optimal solutions.

An economic order quantity model with nonlinear holding cost, partial backlogging and ramp-type demand

Science.gov (United States)

San-José, Luis A.; Sicilia, Joaquín; González-de-la-Rosa, Manuel; Febles-Acosta, Jaime

2018-07-01

In this article, a deterministic inventory model with a ramp-type demand depending on price and time is developed. The cumulative holding cost is assumed to be a nonlinear function of time. Shortages are allowed and are partially backlogged. Thus, the fraction of backlogged demand depends on the waiting time and on the stock-out period. The aim is to maximize the total profit per unit time. To do this, a procedure that determines the economic lot size, the optimal inventory cycle and the maximum profit is presented. The inventory system studied here extends diverse inventory models proposed in the literature. Finally, some numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results previously propounded.

Oxytocin Acts in Nucleus Accumbens to Attenuate Methamphetamine Seeking and Demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Brittney M; Bentzley, Brandon S; Regen-Tuero, Helaina; See, Ronald E; Reichel, Carmela M; Aston-Jones, Gary

2017-06-01

Evidence indicates that oxytocin, an endogenous peptide well known for its role in social behaviors, childbirth, and lactation, is a promising addiction pharmacotherapy. We employed a within-session behavioral-economic (BE) procedure in rats to examine oxytocin as a pharmacotherapy for methamphetamine (meth) addiction. The BE paradigm was modeled after BE procedures used to assess motivation for drugs in humans with addiction. The same BE variables assessed across species have been shown to predict later relapse behavior. Thus, the translational potential of preclinical BE studies is particularly strong. We tested the effects of systemic and microinfused oxytocin on demand for self-administered intravenous meth and reinstatement of extinguished meth seeking in male and female rats using a BE paradigm. Correlations between meth demand and meth seeking were assessed. Female rats showed greater demand (i.e., motivation) for meth compared with male rats. In both male and female rats, meth demand predicted reinstatement of meth seeking, and systemic oxytocin decreased demand for meth and attenuated reinstatement to meth seeking. Oxytocin was most effective at decreasing meth demand and seeking in rats with the strongest motivation for drug. Finally, these effects of systemic oxytocin were mediated by actions in the nucleus accumbens. Oxytocin decreases meth demand and seeking in both sexes, and these effects depend on oxytocin signaling in the nucleus accumbens. Overall, these data indicate that development of oxytocin-based therapies may be a promising treatment approach for meth addiction in humans. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Corrective economic dispatch and operational cycles for probabilistic unit commitment with demand response and high wind power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azizipanah-Abarghooee, Rasoul; Golestaneh, Faranak; Gooi, Hoay Beng; Lin, Jeremy; Bavafa, Farhad; Terzija, Vladimir

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Suggesting a new UC mixing a probabilistic security and incentive demand response. • Investigating the effects of uncertainty on UC using chance-constraint programming. • Proposing an efficient spinning reserve satisfaction based on a new ED correction. • Presenting a new operational cycles way to convert binary variable to discrete one. - Abstract: We propose a probabilistic unit commitment problem with incentive-based demand response and high level of wind power. Our novel formulation provides an optimal allocation of up/down spinning reserve. A more efficient unit commitment algorithm based on operational cycles is developed. A multi-period elastic residual demand economic model based on the self- and cross-price elasticities and customers’ benefit function is used. In the proposed scheme, the probability of residual demand falling within the up/down spinning reserve imposed by n − 1 security criterion is considered as a stochastic constraint. A chance-constrained method, with a new iterative economic dispatch correction, wind power curtailment, and commitment of cheaper units, is applied to guarantee that the probability of loss of load is lower than a pre-defined risk level. The developed architecture builds upon an improved Jaya algorithm to generate feasible, robust and optimal solutions corresponding to the operational cost. The proposed framework is applied to a small test system with 10 units and also to the IEEE 118-bus system to illustrate its advantages in efficient scheduling of generation in the power systems.

Demands For Solar Electricity From The BRICS Countries In The Future

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Y.

2015-12-01

BRICS countries are presently among the leading the economic powers globally, but their increasing demands for energy and sustainable future requires renewed technical progress on implementation of renewable energy (e.g., solar energy) and a sustainable solution rather than extracting finite natural resources. BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) face both social and environmental pressures as their economy keeps growing. The rapid development of technology in BRICS inevitably altered their culture and behavior, as reflected by education, gender equality, health, and other demographic/socio-economic indicators. These changes coupled with land use/land cover change have altered ecosystem services, as reflected by NEE (Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO2) and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). Global climatic changes also drives the demand for sustainable energy. With a focus on solar energy, we analyzed time series of energy consuming behaviors, government policies, and the ecosystem services. Structural equation modeling was applied to confirm the relationships among societal transition, ecosystem services, and climate change. We compared the energy consumption patterns for the five countries and forecasted the changes through 2025. We found that government policies significantly influenced energy consumption behaviors for BRICS and that solar energy usage would continue to increase to 2025 and beyond.

Dopamine, behavioral economics, and effort

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John D Salamone

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract. There are numerous problems with the hypothesis that brain dopamine (DA systems, particularly in the nucleus accumbens, directly mediate the rewarding or primary motivational characteristics of natural stimuli such as food. Research and theory related to the functions of mesolimbic DA are undergoing a substantial conceptual restructuring, with the traditional emphasis on hedonia and primary reward yielding to other concepts and lines of inquiry. The present review is focused upon the involvement of nucleus accumbens DA in behavioral activation and effort-related processes. Viewed from the framework of behavioral economics, the effects of accumbens DA depletions and antagonism on food-reinforced behavior are highly dependent upon the work requirements of the instrumental task, and DA depleted rats are more sensitive to increases in response costs (i.e., ratio requirements. Moreover, interference with accumbens DA transmission exerts a powerful influence over effort-related choice behavior. Rats with accumbens DA depletions or antagonism reallocate their instrumental behavior away from food-reinforced tasks that have high response requirements, and instead these rats select a less-effortful type of food-seeking behavior. Nucleus accumbens DA and adenosine interact in the regulation of effort-related functions, and other brain structures (anterior cingulate cortex, amygdala, ventral pallidum also are involved. Studies of the brain systems regulating effort-based processes may have implications for understanding drug abuse, as well as energy-related disorders such as psychomotor slowing, fatigue or anergia in depression and other neurological disorders.

Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kucukali, Serhat; Baris, Kemal

2010-01-01

This paper aims to forecast Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand by applying fuzzy logic methodology while general information on economical, political and electricity market conditions of the country is also given. Unlike most of the other forecast models about Turkey's electricity demand, which usually uses more than one parameter, gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity was the only parameter used in the model. Proposed model made good predictions and captured the system dynamic behavior covering the years of 1970-2014. The model yielded average absolute relative errors of 3.9%. Furthermore, the model estimates a 4.5% decrease in electricity demand of Turkey in 2009 and the electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 4% between 2010 and 2014. It is concluded that forecasting the Turkey's short-term gross electricity demand with the country's economic performance will provide more reliable projections. Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of a country could be made by any designer with the help of the fuzzy logic procedure described in this paper. The advantage of this model lies on the ability to mimic the human thinking and reasoning.

Behavioral economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Chambers, David W

2009-01-01

It is human nature to overestimate how rational we are, both in general and even when we are trying to be. Such irrationality is not random, and the search for and explanation of patterns of fuzzy thinking is the basis for a new academic discipline known as behavioral economics. Examples are given of some of the best understood of our foibles, including prospect theory, framing, anchoring, salience, confirmation bias, superstition, and ownership. Humans have two cognitive systems: one conscious, deliberate, slow, and rational; the other fast, pattern-based, emotionally tinged, and intuitive. Each is subject to its own kind of error. In the case of rational thought, we tend to exaggerate our capacity; for intuition, we fail to train it or recognize contexts where it is inappropriate. Humans are especially poor at estimating probabilities, or even understanding what they are. It is a common human failing to reason backwards from random outcomes that are favorable to beliefs about our power to predict the future. Five suggestions are offered for thinking within our means.

Economic Cycles in a Behavioral Disequilibrium Perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mosekilde, Erik; Sterman, J.D.

1997-01-01

The paper reviews the characteristic features of the main economic cycles and discusses the behavioral foundation for each mode at the microlevel. The analysis continues to illustrate some of the nonlinear dynamic phenomena that can arise through interaction between the various modes and through...

A Behavioral Economics Perspective on Tobacco Taxation

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

Economic studies of taxation typically estimate external costs of tobacco use to be low and refrain from recommending large tobacco taxes. Behavioral economics suggests that a rational decision-making process by individuals fully aware of tobacco's hazards might still lead to overconsumption through the psychological tendency to favor immediate gratification over future harm. Taxes can serve as a self-control device to help reduce tobacco use and enable successful quit attempts. Whether taxes are appropriately high depends on how excessively people underrate the harm from tobacco use and varies with a country's circumstances. Such taxes are likely to be more equitable for poorer subgroups than traditional economic analysis suggests, which would strengthen the case for increased tobacco taxation globally. PMID:20220113

Evaluating Water Demand Using Agent-Based Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Lowry, T. S.

2004-12-01

The supply and demand of water resources are functions of complex, inter-related systems including hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy. To assess the safety and sustainability of water resources, planners often rely on complex numerical models that relate some or all of these systems using mathematical abstractions. The accuracy of these models relies on how well the abstractions capture the true nature of the systems interactions. Typically, these abstractions are based on analyses of observations and/or experiments that account only for the statistical mean behavior of each system. This limits the approach in two important ways: 1) It cannot capture cross-system disruptive events, such as major drought, significant policy change, or terrorist attack, and 2) it cannot resolve sub-system level responses. To overcome these limitations, we are developing an agent-based water resources model that includes the systems of hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy, to examine water demand during normal and extraordinary conditions. Agent-based modeling (ABM) develops functional relationships between systems by modeling the interaction between individuals (agents), who behave according to a probabilistic set of rules. ABM is a "bottom-up" modeling approach in that it defines macro-system behavior by modeling the micro-behavior of individual agents. While each agent's behavior is often simple and predictable, the aggregate behavior of all agents in each system can be complex, unpredictable, and different than behaviors observed in mean-behavior models. Furthermore, the ABM approach creates a virtual laboratory where the effects of policy changes and/or extraordinary events can be simulated. Our model, which is based on the demographics and hydrology of the Middle Rio Grande Basin in the state of New Mexico, includes agent groups of residential, agricultural, and industrial users. Each agent within each group determines its water usage

The effect of economic factors on families calorie demand in rural

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

hossein ebadipour

2016-11-01

The quantity of the received calories by families is one of the important debates in public and development economic context. This is an attractive subject for government officials and policy makers in different countries. In the current paper, the impacts of households' income shocks, price and food commodity subsidies on the quantity of the received amount of calories in the rural parts of Iran are studied. For this purpose, we used time series data of 1961-2011 in the vector auto-regressive (VAR model. The results indicated that the impact period of the applied shock on the quantity of paid subsidies to agricultural sector is shorter than the period of price and income shocks. Besides, the most sensitivity of calorie demand is related to the income factor. According to the research findings, we can conclude that for creating food security, we should create economic stability in the market and consider the final effect of changes in nutrition pattern when determining the policies regarding market regulation, subsidies and taxation regardless of income growth that affect rural households and will have a serious negative impact on calories.

The Economic Viability of Ethnicity: Economic Behavior as an Expression of Ethnic Identity among Serbian Immigrants in the USA

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Saša Nedeljković

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The economic aspect of ethnicity represents a wide topic of research which still hasn’t been extensively studied in Serbian ethnology and anthropology. It encompasses numerous kinds of relationships between people who belong to the same ethnic group, as well as all kinds of economic discrimination or economic favorizing based on ethnic identity. In this paper I shall attempt to highlight some of the basic characteristics of this issue, and to point out the interconnectedness of economic behavior and ethnic identity, based on one case study. I shall also demonstrate some of the specifics of the socio-economic system within which the studied topic was considered (USA, as well as the complex and ambiguous influence that this system has had on ethnic identity through certain economic actions. The paper focuses on the economic aspect of ethnicity of the Serbian Diaspora in the US, and certain specific issues are considered through the example of the economic behavior of one Serbian immigrant from Romania.

Behavioral Economics and Public Policy 102: Beyond Nudging

OpenAIRE

Saurabh Bhargava; George Loewenstein

2015-01-01

Policymakers have recently embraced Behavioral Economics as an alternative approach which recognizes the limits and consequences of human decision-making. Early applications of BE ("nudges") produced notable successes and helped to set the stage for more aggressive applications aimed at the deeper causes of policy problems. We contend that policies that aspire to simplify products and incentives, rather than choice environments, aggressively protect consumers from behavioral exploitation, and...

Economic demand response model in liberalised electricity markets with respect to flexibility of consumers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sharifi, Reza; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Fathi, S. Hamid

2017-01-01

Before restructuring in the electricity industry, the primary decision-makers of the electricity market were deemed to be power generation and transmission companies, market regulation boards, and power industry regulators. In this traditional structure, consumers were interested in receiving...... electricity at flat rates while paying no attention to the problems of this industry. This attitude was the source of many problems, sometimes leading to collapse of power systems and widespread blackouts. Restructuring of the electricity industry however provided a multitude of solutions to these problems....... The most important solution can be demand response (DR) programs. This paper proposes an economic DR model for residential consumers in liberalized electricity markets to change their consumption pattern from times of high energy prices to other times to maximize their utility functions. This economic...

Using Behavioral Economics to Design Physician Incentives That Deliver High-Value Care.

Science.gov (United States)

Emanuel, Ezekiel J; Ubel, Peter A; Kessler, Judd B; Meyer, Gregg; Muller, Ralph W; Navathe, Amol S; Patel, Pankaj; Pearl, Robert; Rosenthal, Meredith B; Sacks, Lee; Sen, Aditi P; Sherman, Paul; Volpp, Kevin G

2016-01-19

Behavioral economics provides insights about the development of effective incentives for physicians to deliver high-value care. It suggests that the structure and delivery of incentives can shape behavior, as can thoughtful design of the decision-making environment. This article discusses several principles of behavioral economics, including inertia, loss aversion, choice overload, and relative social ranking. Whereas these principles have been applied to motivate personal health decisions, retirement planning, and savings behavior, they have been largely ignored in the design of physician incentive programs. Applying these principles to physician incentives can improve their effectiveness through better alignment with performance goals. Anecdotal examples of successful incentive programs that apply behavioral economics principles are provided, even as the authors recognize that its application to the design of physician incentives is largely untested, and many outstanding questions exist. Application and rigorous evaluation of infrastructure changes and incentives are needed to design payment systems that incentivize high-quality, cost-conscious care.

Behavioral Economics and Marketing in Aid of Decision Making Among the Poor

OpenAIRE

Bertrand, Marianne; Shafir, Eldar; Mullainathan, Sendhil

2006-01-01

This article considers several aspects of the economic decision making of the poor from the perspective of behavioral economics, and it focuses on potential contributions from marketing. Among other things, the authors consider some relevant facets of the social and institutional environments in which the poor interact, and they review some behavioral patterns that are likely to arise in these contexts. A behaviorally more informed perspective can help make sense of what might otherwise be co...

Dynamics of Electricity Demand in Lesotho: A Kalman Filter Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thamae Retselisitsoe Isaiah

2015-04-01

Full Text Available This study provides an empirical analysis of the time-varying price and income elasticities of electricity demand in Lesotho for the period 1995-2012 using the Kalman filter approach. The results reveal that economic growth has been one of the main drivers of electricity consumption in Lesotho while electricity prices are found to play a less significant role since they are monopoly-driven and relatively low when compared to international standards. These findings imply that increases in electricity prices in Lesotho might not have a significant impact on consumption in the short-run. However, if the real electricity prices become too high over time, consumers might change their behavior and sensitivity to price and hence, energy policymakers will need to reconsider their impact in the long-run. Furthermore, several exogenous shocks seem to have affected the sensitivity of electricity demand during the period prior to regulation, which made individuals, businesses and agencies to be more sensitive to electricity costs. On the other hand, the period after regulation has been characterized by more stable and declining sensitivity of electricity demand. Therefore, factors such as regulation and changes in the country’s economic activities appear to have affected both price and income elasticities of electricity demand in Lesotho.

Economics as a factor in models of behavioral motivation and change.

Science.gov (United States)

Montoya, I D; Atkinson, J S; Trevino, R A

2000-02-01

This note first presents a summary of four main behavioral models that are used to explain behavioral motivation and change. Three models are based on psychosocial theory. They are: 1) the Theory of Reasoned Action, 2) the Theory of Planned Behavior, and 3) the Theory of Stages-of-Change. The fourth model is based on economic theory and is known as the Rational Addiction Model. Each model is analyzed for its strengths and weaknesses. The note concludes by arguing for the usefulness of integrating the economic and the psychosocial models to study drug use. Specific examples and suggestions are presented.

Social Determinants of Economic Behavior of Older Adults in Europe

OpenAIRE

Youssim, Iaroslav

2015-01-01

This PhD thesis contributes to the growing economic literature which studies effects of social and cultural variables on economic behavior of older adults in Europe. Landes, cited in Guiso et al. (2006), states that "if we learn anything from the history of economic development, it is that culture makes all the difference” (p. 29). Indeed, in the recent years economists put an effort to apply their analytical frameworks and empirical tools to study the role of culture on economic outcomes (Gu...

Bringing the patient back in: behavioral decision-making and choice in medical economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Mendoza, Roger Lee

2018-04-01

We explore the behavioral methodology and "revolution" in economics through the lens of medical economics. We address two questions: (1) Are mainstream economic assumptions of utility-maximization realistic approximations of people's actual behavior? (2) Do people maximize subjective expected utility, particularly in choosing from among the available options? In doing so, we illustrate-in terms of a hypothetical experimental sample of patients with dry eye diagnosis-why and how utility in pharmacoeconomic assessments might be valued differently by patients when subjective psychological, social, cognitive, and emotional factors are considered. While experimentally-observed or surveyed behavior yields stated (rather than revealed) preferences, behaviorism offers a robust toolset in understanding drug, medical device, and treatment-related decisions compared to the optimizing calculus assumed by mainstream economists. It might also do so more perilously than economists have previously understood, in light of the intractable uncertainties, information asymmetries, insulated third-party agents, entry barriers, and externalities that characterize healthcare. Behavioral work has been carried out in many sub-fields of economics. Only recently has it been extended to healthcare. This offers medical economists both the challenge and opportunity of balancing efficiency presumptions with relatively autonomous patient choices, notwithstanding their predictable, yet seemingly consistent, irrationality. Despite its comparative youth and limitations, the scientific contributions of behaviorism are secure and its future in medical economics appears to be promising.

The SIGMA plants economic behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rivarola, Martin E.; Bergallo, Juan E.

1999-01-01

In this work, the economical behavior of the Uranium Enrichment Plants, built using the Gaseous Isotopic Separation using Advanced Methods (SIGMA) (Separacion Isotopica Gaseosa por Metodos Avanzados) technology is analyzed. The calculations were made using an integrated computer code, where the cost of each main component of the plant is estimated. The program computes the production cost for several configurations of enrichment cascades, each one corresponding to a production rate. The program also includes a numerical optimizer and it seeks the SIGMA optimal configuration for a given set of design parameters. The present work does not contemplate the model and calculation of the auxiliary system costs. The total amortization cost is obtained by using the cascade capital cost and assuming that the auxiliary system represents a fixed part of the total cost.The results obtained show that the SIGMA technology for Enrichment Uranium Plants could achieve economical competition in a much lower production scale than the conventional Gaseous Diffusion Enrichment Plants. (author)

[The phenomenon of the inducement of demand and various concepts in the economics of health].

Science.gov (United States)

Renckens, An; Decaluwe, Frida

2006-01-01

The article looks at the behaviour of practitioners and patients from an economic point of view, in particular at supplier-induced demand (SID). The objective is to be able to describe the factors which impact on the market for health care. To define the market for health care/dental care in general and the SID concept in particular, the following economic terminology is relevant. uncertainty, asymmetric information, moral hazard, and the agency relationship between practitioner and patient. Essentially SID results from the existence of asymmetric information (information "gap") on the health care market. The patient is less informed than the practitioner and cannot accurately assess his need for medical care. Hence decision-making authority is delegated to the practitioner who acts as the patient's agent to determine the optimal (amount of) care. This enables the practitioner to influence the demand for medical/dental care. If the practitioner is more interested in the rate of return than in the patient s need for care, a difference might arise between the care recommended by the practitioner and the care the patient would have asked for if he had the same level of information as the practitioner. This difference is called the amount of SID.

Energy demand: Facts and trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chateau, B; Lapillonne, B

1982-01-01

The relationship between economic development and energy demand is investigated in this book. It gives a detailed analysis of the energy demand dynamics in industrialized countries and compares the past evolution of the driving factors behind energy demand by sector and by end-uses for the main OECD countries: residential sector (space heating, water heating, cooking...), tertiary sector, passenger and goods transport by mode, and industry (with particular emphasis on the steel and cement industry). This analysis leads to a more precise understanding of the long-term trends of energy demand; highlighting the influence on these trends of energy prices, especially after the oil price shocks, and of the type of economic development pattern.

Role of estrogen receptor-α on food demand elasticity.

Science.gov (United States)

Minervini, Vanessa; Rowland, Neil E; Robertson, Kimberly L; Foster, Thomas C

2015-05-01

Estrogens have been shown to have an inhibitory effect on food intake under free-feeding conditions, yet the effects of estrogens on food-maintained operant responding have been studied to a much lesser extent and, thus, are not well understood. Therefore, the purpose of the present experiment was to use a behavioral economics paradigm to assess differences in demand elasticity between mice with knockout of the estrogen receptor subtype α, knockout of subtype β, and their wild type controls. The mice responded in a closed economy, and the price of food was increased by increasing the fixed-ratio response requirement every four sessions. Overall, we found that mice with the knockout of receptor subtype α had the most elastic demand functions. Therefore, under these conditions, estrogens increased food seeking via activation of the receptor subtype α. The results were inconsistent with those reported by previous studies that employed free-feeding conditions. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Consumer demand system estimation and value added tax reforms in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Janský, Petr

2014-01-01

Roč. 64, č. 3 (2014), s. 246-273 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA TA ČR(CZ) TD010033 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : consumer behavior * Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System * tax reforms Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.420, year: 2014 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1301_jansky.pdf

Demand of natural gas; methodology for their projection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, UPME

1999-01-01

The objective of integrated energetic planning process, is to propose political that assure the full supply of energy in the country, at competitive costs and with a rational use of the resources. Of there that it requires the periodic analysis of the information on the sectors of energy supplies and demand and on their interrelation with the economic, social and environmental environment. Among the variables that should stay upgraded during the planning process, it stands out the energy demand. The fact of to evaluate and to project demands goes to predict the consumer's of energy low uncertain conditions future behavior that it can affect the prospective results, so much in the short term as in the long term. One of the alternatives to face the uncertainty has more than enough future events it consists on building scenarios in those that values different from the variables that are considered with more incidences in the projected results participate. In the case of the energy, the variables that, generally, they are considered determinant, are the economic growth, the prices variation, the technological developments, the substitution among energy, the change of patterns of the population's consumption and the rational use of the energy. The application of the methodology of scenarios allows to settle down, for this case, bands of projection of the energy demand, in global form or for each energy type, specify in each sector and for each use. Once it is had the projection band, it is possible to determine the half growth of long term. The energy planning should respond in immediate form to the scenario changes, through the revision of the state projections. A frequent error, typical of the old sub-sector planning, consists on maintaining, in an irrational way, established growth percentages, when they intend new scenarios of economic growth

Social and economic analysis of the demand for public transport in Vilnius

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Griškevičienė

2003-08-01

Full Text Available To determine the demand for public transport on the market, a survey was conducted in 2001 - 2002 concerning the situation in the suburban zones of newly - built up districts where public transport is either inaccessible or poorly developed. The analysis was based on major social and economic factors determining the demand for transport. They are: demographic structure and development, restructuring of productive forces and space planning; employment and unemployment; income and poverty; social insurance, pensions and welfare; the household structure; income and expenditures; mobility of the inhabitants and motorization. The accessibility of transport services to passengers and the choice of transport facilities is closely related to their purchasing power. The offer of public transport services is lower than the demand, especially in the suburbs. As a result, the competition of automobiles is very strong there: the preference given to a car is determined by inaccessibility of public transport on the route for 22 % of the inhabitants, while for 20 % the reason was long way to a bus stop or large intervals in the schedule of public transport facilities. Based on the results obtained, the public transport system in Vilnius should be developed along three main lines: 1 raising the quality of public transport provided on fixed routes; 2 revising and updating the system of fares; 3 integrating the suburban public transport system into the central city transport system. These are the priority tasks associated with general goals of improving the system of public transport so that it could satisfy the needs of the passengers in the city.

Air pollution, nuclear power and electricity demand: an economic perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, D.; Mount, T.; Czerwinski, M.; Younger, M.

1983-09-01

We have studied the potential for physical or financial disruption of the electric utility system in New York as it may be affected by nuclear power availability, air pollution control policy, inflation, and economic growth. The method of analysis is the EPA-sponsored CCMU model which integrates utility economics, demand forecasting and customer charges, air pollution control, and power plant dispatching. The CCMU model is a partial version of the AUSM; the latter model is being developed to include coal supply and capacity planning. Of all the cases examined, only one type seems to create a severe crisis which leads to possible public reorganization of the industry. These are the cases in which the Shoreham and Nine Mile 2 plants are not operated, and 50% or more of the investment cost is not allowed in the rate base. In these circumstances, the state's utilities would apparently be unable to meet debt obligations and would also need to discontinue dividend payments. The extremity of this situation should be emphasized. These specific cases already assume that liability for debt and dividend payments has been shared equally over all of the state's utilities and customers. It assumes that the state's Power Pool has already implemented a plan by which the principal owners of the two plants are relieved of their principal financial and generating responsibilities. In all other cases studied, the statewide industry appears capable of managing the problems examined

Economic potential of demand response at household level—Are Central-European market conditions sufficient?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prüggler, Natalie

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is to show the economic potential of demand response (DR) on household level at Central European market conditions. Thereby, required economic benefits for consumers' participation, the realistic load shifting potential at household level and the estimation of essential intelligent infrastructure costs are discussed. The core of this paper builds a case-study applying spot market-oriented load shifting from the supplier's point of view by using Austrian electricity market data, household load profiles as well as a heat pump and e-car charging load profile. It is demonstrated which cost savings for suppliers can be derived from such load shifting procedure at household level. Furthermore, upper cost limits for intelligent infrastructure in order to break-even are derived. Results suggest to take a critical look at European discussions on DR implementation on household level, showing that at Central European market conditions the potential for DR at household level is restricted to significant loads and hence, the applied load shifting strategy is only beneficial with application to heat pumps. In contrast, the frequently discussed shifting of conventional household devices' loads (such as washing machines) economically does not add up. - Highlights: • Calculation of economic potential of domestic DR at Central European market conditions. • Model and case-study of spot market-oriented load shifting from supplier's perspective. • Derivation of supplier's cost savings and upper cost limits for ICT infrastructure. • Results show economic potential of domestic DR to be restricted to significant loads. • Shifting of washing machines economically does not pay off in contrast to heat pumps

Applied economics: The use of monetary incentives to modulate behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Strang, S; Park, S Q; Strombach, T; Kenning, P

2016-01-01

According to standard economic theory higher monetary incentives will lead to higher performance and higher effort independent of task, context, or individual. In many contexts this standard economic advice is implemented. Monetary incentives are, for example, used to enhance performance at workplace or to increase health-related behavior. However, the fundamental positive impact of monetary incentives has been questioned by psychologists as well as behavioral economists during the last decade, arguing that monetary incentives can sometimes even backfire. In this chapter, studies from proponents as well as opponents of monetary incentives will be presented. Specifically, the impact of monetary incentives on performance, prosocial, and health behavior will be discussed. Furthermore, variables determining whether incentives have a positive or negative impact will be identified. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Education in the World System: The Demand for Language and International Proficiencies in Economic Development and National Security.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoegl, Juergen K.

1986-01-01

Discusses the role of second-language proficiency from international, national, and state perspectives, including consideration of the need for such proficiency in science, technology, and research for economic development. Trends indicate that a more internationalized curricula in higher education and a greater demand for second-language…

HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT IN TERMS OF BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ewa Mazanowska

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Behaviourists believe human capital is seen as the potential in people. They believe that the human resource in the organization are intangible assets embodied in the employees, not the people themselves. Behavioral economics emphasizes that people aren’t owned by the company, only their abilities and skills made available to the employer on the basis of certain legal relations which holds it to manage these assets in a rational way. Recognition of behavioral economics also highlights the aspects of development and human capital perspective, which appear in the may resource Staff in the future. These may be limited to: raise, awareness of capacity, internal aspirations, motives. Human capital management is nothing but a recognition of the relevant characteristics of the potential held within the company Staff and correct its use. As a consequence, it can bring tangible benefits to the organization.

Joint effects of job demands and job resources on vocational teachers’ innovative work behavior

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Messmann, G.; Stoffers, J.M.M.; Heijden, B.I.J.M. van der; Mulder, R.H.; Stoffers, J.; Mulder, R.

2017-01-01

PURPOSE - The purpose of this paper is to investigate interactions of job demands and job resources in the facilitation of innovative work behavior (IWB). In particular, the paper aims at researching interactive effects of psychological empowerment and participative safety and their potential to

Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kucukali, Serhat [Civil Engineering Department, Zonguldak Karaelmas University, Incivez 67100, Zonguldak (Turkey); Baris, Kemal [Mining Engineering Department, Zonguldak Karaelmas University, Incivez 67100, Zonguldak (Turkey)

2010-05-15

This paper aims to forecast Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand by applying fuzzy logic methodology while general information on economical, political and electricity market conditions of the country is also given. Unlike most of the other forecast models about Turkey's electricity demand, which usually uses more than one parameter, gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity was the only parameter used in the model. Proposed model made good predictions and captured the system dynamic behavior covering the years of 1970-2014. The model yielded average absolute relative errors of 3.9%. Furthermore, the model estimates a 4.5% decrease in electricity demand of Turkey in 2009 and the electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 4% between 2010 and 2014. It is concluded that forecasting the Turkey's short-term gross electricity demand with the country's economic performance will provide more reliable projections. Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of a country could be made by any designer with the help of the fuzzy logic procedure described in this paper. The advantage of this model lies on the ability to mimic the human thinking and reasoning. (author)

ON THE DEMAND DYNAMICS OF ELECTRICITY IN GHANA: DO EXOGENOUS NON-ECONOMIC VARIABLES COUNT?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ishmael Ackah

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to identify and quantify the effect of endogenous and exogenous economic factors on electricity demand in Ghana. The Structural Time Series Model is employed due to its ability to capture exogenous non-economic variables. The findings reveal that education has significant effect on electricity consumption in both the short and the long run. Education has inverse relationship with electricity consumption implying that the more consumers are educated, the less electricity they consume. The study also reveals that price changes have less impact on electricity consumption in the short run and that efficiency in electricity consumption has improved since 1971 and will continue for the next twenty years. The study recommends that more public education should be carried out to enhance energy conservation and also, realistic prices should be charge for electricity consumption to allow private investment into the sector.

Assessment of the regional economic impacts of catastrophic events: CGE analysis of resource loss and behavioral effects of an RDD attack scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Giesecke, J A; Burns, W J; Barrett, A; Bayrak, E; Rose, A; Slovic, P; Suher, M

2012-04-01

We investigate the regional economic consequences of a hypothetical catastrophic event-attack via radiological dispersal device (RDD)-centered on the downtown Los Angeles area. We distinguish two routes via which such an event might affect regional economic activity: (i) reduction in effective resource supply (the resource loss effect) and (ii) shifts in the perceptions of economic agents (the behavioral effect). The resource loss effect relates to the physical destructiveness of the event, while the behavioral effect relates to changes in fear and risk perception. Both affect the size of the regional economy. RDD detonation causes little capital damage and few casualties, but generates substantial short-run resource loss via business interruption. Changes in fear and risk perception increase the supply cost of resources to the affected region, while simultaneously reducing demand for goods produced in the region. We use results from a nationwide survey, tailored to our RDD scenario, to inform our model values for behavioral effects. Survey results, supplemented by findings from previous research on stigmatized asset values, suggest that in the region affected by the RDD, households may require higher wages, investors may require higher returns, and customers may require price discounts. We show that because behavioral effects may have lingering long-term deleterious impacts on both the supply-cost of resources to a region and willingness to pay for regional output, they can generate changes in regional gross domestic product (GDP) much greater than those generated by resource loss effects. Implications for policies that have the potential to mitigate these effects are discussed. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

The economics of uranium demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Owen, A.D.

1983-01-01

The major characteristics of the demand for uranium are identified, and a number of factors which determine the actual level of uranium requirements of the nuclear power industry are discussed. Since the role of inventories is central to the process of short-term price formation, by comparing projections of uranium production and apparent consumption, the relative level of total inventories is calculated and an assessment is made of its likely impact on the uranium market during the 1980s. (author)

Analysis of Behavioral Economics in Crowdsensing: A Loss Aversion Cooperation Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deng Li

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The existing incentive mechanisms of crowdsourcing construct the expected utility function based on the assumption of rational people in traditional economics. A large number of studies in behavioral economics have demonstrated the defects of the traditional utility function and introduced a new parameter called loss aversion coefficient to calculate individual utility when it suffers a loss. In this paper, combination of behavioral economics and a payment algorithm based on the loss aversion is proposed. Compared with usual incentive mechanisms, the node utility function is redefined by the loss aversion characteristic of the node. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can get a higher rate of cooperation with a lower payment price and has good scalability compared with the traditional incentive mechanism.

The behavioral economics of substance use disorders: reinforcement pathologies and their repair.

Science.gov (United States)

Bickel, Warren K; Johnson, Matthew W; Koffarnus, Mikhail N; MacKillop, James; Murphy, James G

2014-01-01

The field of behavioral economics has made important inroads into the understanding of substance use disorders through the concept of reinforcer pathology. Reinforcer pathology refers to the joint effects of (a) the persistently high valuation of a reinforcer, broadly defined to include tangible commodities and experiences, and/or (b) the excessive preference for the immediate acquisition or consumption of a commodity despite long-term negative outcomes. From this perspective, reinforcer pathology results from the recursive interactions of endogenous person-level variables and exogenous environment-level factors. The current review describes the basic principles of behavioral economics that are central to reinforcer pathology, the processes that engender reinforcer pathology, and the approaches and procedures that can repair reinforcement pathologies. The overall goal of this review is to present a new understanding of substance use disorders as viewed by recent advances in behavioral economics.

Economic growth and energy demand in Brazil from 1930 to 1980; Crescimento economico e demanda de energia no Brasil de 1930 a 1980

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Theis, I M

1988-10-01

There are enough evidences that economic growth and energy demand are closely related indeed. These evidences show that the growth of the economic activity calls for greater energy inputs. The Brazilian case is similar to the other industrialized economies, in spite of our industrialization process being started only in the 1930. Two periods excelled as phases of quick and accelerated growth of the Economic Product: the later fifties and the famous miracle from 1968 to 1973. During those periods the demand for energy in Brazil increased to amounts previously unthinkable. More remarkable, however, is that, after those phases of accelerated growth, Brazilian economy had changed the consumption profile considerably: while, until 1968 firewood was the most important resource, since then petroleum has taken this position. (author). 213 refs, 115 tabs.

Behavioral Economic Predictors of Overweight Children's Weight Loss

Science.gov (United States)

Best, John R.; Theim, Kelly R.; Gredysa, Dana M.; Stein, Richard I.; Welch, R. Robinson; Saelens, Brian E.; Perri, Michael G.; Schechtman, Kenneth B.; Epstein, Leonard H.; Wilfley, Denise E.

2012-01-01

Objective: Our goal was to determine whether behavioral economic constructs--including impulsivity (i.e., steep discounting of delayed food and monetary rewards), the relative reinforcing value of food (RRV[subscript food]), and environmental enrichment (i.e., the presence of alternatives to unhealthy foods in the home and neighborhood…

The Contribution of J.M. Keynes to the Analysis of the Psychological Motives of Economic Behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria A. Kozlova

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article examines the contribution of John Maynard Keynes to the study of the psychological motives of economic behavior. The origins of the analysis of the psychological motives in economics before Keynes are reviewed. The relative importance of rational and irrational motives of economic behavior in the Keynesian theory is analyzed. It is shown that Keynes's analysis of the behavior of the economic agents under uncertainty and the lack of information contributed to the elaboration of the bounded rationality theory by Simon. The article also describes the input of Keynes to the formation of a new «Keynesian» model of human behavior, which implies the importance of expectations, taking into account the psychological and social factors of economic behavior. The main psychological tendencies in the actions of the consumers and investors described by Keynes (the basic psychological law, liquidity preference, the influence of the «market psychology» on the investor's decisions and their relevance nowadays are examined. The article shows further development of the ideas of Keynes in the Akerlof and Shiller's theory of animal spirits and in the financial instability hypothesis of Minsky. It also gives a description of a confidence multiplier, introduced by Akerlof and Shiller, and shows how the cosumers' confidence can be measured nowadays. Besides, the article stresses that the study of the psychological motives of economic behavior, undertaken by Keynes, contributed to the development of such new disciplines at the interface between the economy and psychology as the economic psychology and behavioral economics.

Behavioral economics: "nudging" underserved populations to be screened for cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Purnell, Jason Q; Thompson, Tess; Kreuter, Matthew W; McBride, Timothy D

2015-01-15

Persistent disparities in cancer screening by race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status require innovative prevention tools and techniques. Behavioral economics provides tools to potentially reduce disparities by informing strategies and systems to increase prevention of breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers. With an emphasis on the predictable, but sometimes flawed, mental shortcuts (heuristics) people use to make decisions, behavioral economics offers insights that practitioners can use to enhance evidence-based cancer screening interventions that rely on judgments about the probability of developing and detecting cancer, decisions about competing screening options, and the optimal presentation of complex choices (choice architecture). In the area of judgment, we describe ways practitioners can use the availability and representativeness of heuristics and the tendency toward unrealistic optimism to increase perceptions of risk and highlight benefits of screening. We describe how several behavioral economic principles involved in decision-making can influence screening attitudes, including how framing and context effects can be manipulated to highlight personally salient features of cancer screening tests. Finally, we offer suggestions about ways practitioners can apply principles related to choice architecture to health care systems in which cancer screening takes place. These recommendations include the use of incentives to increase screening, introduction of default options, appropriate feedback throughout the decision-making and behavior completion process, and clear presentation of complex choices, particularly in the context of colorectal cancer screening. We conclude by noting gaps in knowledge and propose future research questions to guide this promising area of research and practice.

Economic consequences of increased bioenergy demand

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Johnston, C.; Kooten, van G.C.

2014-01-01

Although wind, hydro and solar are the most discussed sources of renewable energy, countries will need to rely much more on biomass if they are to meet renewable energy targets. In this study, a global forest trade model is used to examine the global effects of expanded demand for wood pellets fired

Does Lesson Study contribute to activating and cognitively demanding teaching behavior? A single case study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Vries, Siebrich; Roorda, Gerrit

2015-01-01

Activating and cognitively demanding teaching behavior is problematic for many teachers in Dutch secondary education, in particular for the less experienced advanced beginners. In the context of a Professional Learning Community (PLC) for both less and more experienced teachers of mathematics,

The Behavioral Economics of Substance Use Disorders: reinforcement pathologies and their repair

Science.gov (United States)

Bickel, Warren K.; Johnson, Matthew W.; Koffarnus, Mikhail N.; MacKillop, James; Murphy, James G.

2015-01-01

The field of behavioral economics has made important inroads into the understanding of substance use disorders through the concept of reinforcer pathology. Reinforcer pathology refers to the joint effects of (a) the persistently high valuation of a reinforcer, broadly defined to include tangible commodities and experiences, and/or (b) the excessive preference for the immediate acquisition or consumption of a commodity despite long-term negative outcomes. From this perspective, reinforcer pathology results from the recursive interactions of endogenous person-level variables and exogenous environment-level factors. The current review describes the basic principles of behavioral economics that are central to reinforcer pathology, the processes that engender reinforcer pathology, and the approaches and procedures that can repair reinforcement pathologies. The overall goal of this review is to present a new understanding of substance use disorders as viewed by recent advances in behavioral economics. PMID:24679180

Function and Content of Maternal Demands: Developmental Significance of Early Demands for Competent Action.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuczynski, Leon; Kochanska, Grazyna

1995-01-01

Examined mothers' demands during mothers' interactions with their 1.5- to 3.5-year olds. Mothers with authoritative child-rearing attitudes emphasized proactive, competence-oriented demands and avoided regulatory control. Maternal demands for competent action predicted fewer behavior problems in their children at age five; maternal demands focused…

ECONOMIC AGENT BEHAVIOR ON REAL ESTATE MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oana CHINDRIŞ-VĂSIOIU

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Traditional theory of the consumer explains development of demand through changes in prices and income. Consumer tastes and preferences are considered to be constant, stable, therefore does not take account of them in explaining market participants behavior. Indeed, from scientific point of view, can only be explained a behavior by a hypothesis relating to individual tastes or preferences since it would be impossible to subject to such a hypothesis to the test of facts. If your preferences are stable, how we interpret fast transformation of modes of consumption? The increase of income can explain an increase in volume for consumption, but not the changes in its structure. At the limit, relative prices could explain budget allocation between existing goods and services, but not the incessant occurrence of new goods and services, which they come to satisfy what current language means that new needs.

DSM [demand-side management] opportunities in Alberta: An economist's perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woodward, R.S.

1990-01-01

In Alberta, utility companies are placing increasing attention on demand-side management (DSM) as one option for meeting future demand. Some basic economic principles are provided to yield a guideline on how much a utility should be spending on DSM initiatives. For the case of financial incentives to customers, it is shown that subsidies based on sound economic principles will enable the utility to charge lower overall rates to customers receiving the subsidy without raising other customers' rates. Moving outside of a well-understood market-based system and into a fully centralized planning approach to DSM eliminates a critical link between utilities and their customers. In Alberta, DSM measures appropriate in other regions will not be appropriate due to the province's unique supply and demand characteristics. Most of Alberta's electricity supply comes from low-cost coal-fired plants. On the demand-side, there is a significant concentration of large industrial and commercial consumers, notably in the oil and gas industry, and there is essentially no demand for electric heating in homes since natural gas is very abundant. The Alberta integrated power system currently operates at a load factor of ca 77%, reflecting the large industrial demand and the absence of a winter peaking effect associated with electrical heating requirements. A relatively small difference in embedded and incremental electricity supply costs means that utilities have little to spend on DSM programs. The identification of cost-effective DSM opportunities, most of which are likely to be found in the industrial sector, requires a considerable amount of detailed information on consumer behavior and close collaboration between utility and customer

Demand curves for hypothetical cocaine in cocaine-dependent individuals.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruner, Natalie R; Johnson, Matthew W

2014-03-01

Drug purchasing tasks have been successfully used to examine demand for hypothetical consumption of abused drugs including heroin, nicotine, and alcohol. In these tasks, drug users make hypothetical choices whether to buy drugs, and if so, at what quantity, at various potential prices. These tasks allow for behavioral economic assessment of that drug's intensity of demand (preferred level of consumption at extremely low prices) and demand elasticity (sensitivity of consumption to price), among other metrics. However, a purchasing task for cocaine in cocaine-dependent individuals has not been investigated. This study examined a novel Cocaine Purchasing Task and the relation between resulting demand metrics and self-reported cocaine use data. Participants completed a questionnaire assessing hypothetical purchases of cocaine units at prices ranging from $0.01 to $1,000. Demand curves were generated from responses on the Cocaine Purchasing Task. Correlations compared metrics from the demand curve to measures of real-world cocaine use. Group and individual data were well modeled by a demand curve function. The validity of the Cocaine Purchasing Task was supported by a significant correlation between the demand curve metrics of demand intensity and O max (determined from Cocaine Purchasing Task data) and self-reported measures of cocaine use. Partial correlations revealed that after controlling for demand intensity, demand elasticity and the related measure, P max, were significantly correlated with real-world cocaine use. Results indicate that the Cocaine Purchasing Task produces orderly demand curve data, and that these data relate to real-world measures of cocaine use.

Behavioral economics: from advising organizations to nudging individuals

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sent, E.-M.; Heukelom, F.

2017-01-01

This paper starts from a distinction between “old” and “new” behavioral economics. The former is associated with, amongst others, a Carnegie group around Herbert Simon and a Michigan cluster led by George Katona. The roots of the latter may be traced to the work of especially Amos Tversky and Daniel

Predictors of health behaviors after the economic downturn: a longitudinal study.

Science.gov (United States)

Macy, Jonathan T; Chassin, Laurie; Presson, Clark C

2013-07-01

Economic declines and their associated stress, shortage of financial resources, and changes in available time can impair health behaviors. This study tested the association between change in working hours, change in employment status, and financial strain and health behaviors measured after the 2008 recession after controlling for pre-recession levels of the health behaviors. The moderating influences of demographic factors and pre-recession levels of the health behaviors on the association between change in working hours and employment status and financial strain and the health behaviors were also tested. Participants (N = 3984) were from a longitudinal study of a U.S. Midwestern community-based sample. Regression analyses tested the unique relations between change in hours worked per week, change in employment status, and financial strain and five health behaviors over and above demographic factors and pre-recession levels of the same behavior. Models included predictor by covariate interactions. Participants who reported higher levels of financial strain engaged in lower levels of all but one of the five health behaviors, but there were no significant main effects of a change in the number of hours worked per week or change in employment status. Significant interactions revealed moderation of these relations by demographic characteristics, but findings differed across health behaviors. Financial strain negatively affected engagement in multiple healthy behaviors. Promoting the maintenance of healthy behaviors for disease prevention is an important public health goal during times of economic decline. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Review of Demand Forecast for Charging Facilities of Electric Vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Jiming, Han; Lingyu, Kong; Yaqi, Shen; Ying, Li; Wenting, Xiong; Hao, Wang

2017-05-01

The demand forecasting of charging facilities is the basis of its planning and locating, which has important role in promoting the development of electric vehicles and alleviating the energy crisis. Firstly, this paper analyzes the influence of the charging mode, the electric vehicle population and the user’s charging habits on the demand of charging facilities; Secondly, considering these factors, the recent analysis on charging and switching equipment demand forecast is divided into two methods—forecast based on electric vehicle population and user traveling behavior. Then, the article analyzes the two methods and puts forward the advantages and disadvantages. Finally, in view of the defects of current research, combined with the current situation of the development of the city and comprehensive consideration of economic, political, environmental and other factors, this paper proposes an improved demand forecasting method which has great practicability and pertinence and lays the foundation for the plan of city electric facilities.

Considerations regarding the Effects of Economic Crisis on Employee Communicational Behavior

OpenAIRE

Popescu Manoela; Crenicean Cecilia Luminita

2011-01-01

The economic crisis has caused significant changes in socio-economic entities strategies. In conclusion, firms were obliged to develop strategies for crisis as a result of their focus on customer, without understanding the customer as an employee. Moreover, strategic changes are not the result of company development, but as a direct effect of economic context. Otherwise, firms do not reflect the strategic communication behavior of their employees. Therefore, such a strategy may not be viable ...

Supply and demand outlook for Japan's economic and energy up to FY2018

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aoshima, Momoko; Yorita, Yasuo; Tsunoda, Miyuki

2017-01-01

Japan's economy has gradually expanded, with real GDP in the first quarter of 2017 becoming positive growth for five consecutive quarters for the first time since 2005 to 2006. Although the uncertain factors are increasing both in terms of politics and economy, the world economy is also growing moderately. As the main premises in the standard scenario, the following are supposed: (1) world economy grows moderately, with worldwide growth rate reaching 3.0% in FY2017 and 3.3% in FY2018, (2) exchange rate is about ¥115/$ in both FY2017 and FY2018 average, (3) as for nuclear power generation, cumulative restarted unit number reaches 10 basis until the end of FY2018, with average months of operation in FY2018 reaching 9 months, and with power generation amount reaching 65.6 billion kWh (7% of the power supply composition ratio), and (4) as for the supply and demand for power, the supply reserve ratio of 3% necessary for stable electric power supply can be secured nationwide. Thus, the supply and demand outlook for Japan's economic and energy up to FY2018 was made. The following various evaluation analyses were carried out: (1) macro economy, (2) production activities, (3) primary energy domestic supply, (4) final energy consumption, (5) electricity sales volume and power supply composition (electric power companies), (6) city gas sales volume (gas companies), fuel oil and LPG sales volume and crude oil throughput, and (7) in-depth analysis; demand trend of light oil, renewable energy power generation, and effects of restart of nuclear power plants. (A.O.)

Modelling curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Soloninko K.S.

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The authors research the issue of functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand. Settlement of the problem, and its connection with important scientific and practical tasks. According to its nature, the market economy is unstable and is in constant movement. Economy has an effective instrument for explanation of changes in economic environment; this tool is called the modelling of economic processes. The modelling of economic processes depends first and foremost on the building of economic model which is the base for the formalization of economic process, that is, the building of mathematical model. The effective means for formalization of economic process is the creation of the model of hypothetic or imaginary economy. The building of demand model is significant for the market of goods and services. The problem includes the receiving (as the result of modelling definite functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand according to which one can determine their mathematical model. Another problem lies in obtaining majorant properties of curves of joint demand on the market of goods and services. Analysis of the latest researches and publications. Many domestic and foreign scientists dedicated their studies to the researches and building of the models of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand. In spite of considerable work of the scientists, such problems as functional properties of the curves and their practical use in modelling. The purpose of the article is to describe functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand on the market of goods and services on the base of modelling of their building. Scientific novelty and practical value. The theoretical regulations (for functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand received as a result of the present research, that is convexity, give extra practical possibilities in a microeconomic

Demand uncertainty and investment in the restaurant industry

OpenAIRE

Sohn, Jayoung

2016-01-01

Since the collapse of the housing market, the prolonged economic uncertainty lingering in the U.S. economy has dampened restaurant performance. Economic uncertainty affects consumer sentiment and spending, turning into demand uncertainty. Nevertheless, the highly competitive nature of the restaurant industry does not allow much room for restaurants to actively control prices, leaving most food service firms exposed to demand uncertainty. To investigate the impact of demand uncertainty in the ...

Demand side management—A simulation of household behavior under variable prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gottwalt, Sebastian; Ketter, Wolfgang; Block, Carsten; Collins, John; Weinhardt, Christof

2011-01-01

Within the next years, consumer households will be increasingly equipped with smart metering and intelligent appliances. These technologies are the basis for households to better monitor electricity consumption and to actively control loads in private homes. Demand side management (DSM) can be adopted to private households. We present a simulation model that generates household load profiles under flat tariffs and simulates changes in these profiles when households are equipped with smart appliances and face time-based electricity prices. We investigate the impact of smart appliances and variable prices on electricity bills of a household. We show that for households the savings from equipping them with smart appliances are moderate compared to the required investment. This finding is quite robust with respect to variation of tariff price spreads and to different types of appliance utilization patterns. Finally, our results indicate that electric utilities may face new demand peaks when day-ahead hourly prices are applied. However, a considerable amount of residential load is available for shifting, which is interesting for the utilities to balance demand and supply. - Highlights: ► Our model generates residential load profiles that are based on real world data. ► We simulate changes in load profiles when smart appliances and time-of-use tariffs are applied. ► The economic incentive for households to invest in smart appliances is low. ► Time-of-use tariffs create new, even higher peaks. ► Electric utilities have a large amount of the hourly load available for shifting.

Economic modelling of energy services: Rectifying misspecified energy demand functions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunt, Lester C.; Ryan, David L.

2015-01-01

Although it is well known that energy demand is derived, since energy is required not for its own sake but for the energy services it produces – such as heating, lighting, and motive power – energy demand models, both theoretical and empirical, often fail to take account of this feature. In this paper, we highlight the misspecification that results from ignoring this aspect, and its empirical implications – biased estimates of price elasticities and other measures – and provide a relatively simple and empirically practicable way to rectify it, which has a strong theoretical grounding. To do so, we develop an explicit model of consumer behaviour in which utility derives from consumption of energy services rather than from the energy sources that are used to produce them. As we discuss, this approach opens up the possibility of examining many aspects of energy demand in a theoretically sound way that have not previously been considered on a widespread basis, although some existing empirical work could be interpreted as being consistent with this type of specification. While this formulation yields demand equations for energy services rather than for energy or particular energy sources, these are shown to be readily converted, without added complexity, into the standard type of energy demand equation(s) that is (are) typically estimated. The additional terms that the resulting energy demand equations include, compared to those that are typically estimated, highlight the misspecification that is implicit when typical energy demand equations are estimated. A simple solution for dealing with an apparent drawback of this formulation for empirical purposes, namely that information is required on typically unobserved energy efficiency, indicates how energy efficiency can be captured in the model, such as by including exogenous trends and/or including its possible dependence on past energy prices. The approach is illustrated using an empirical example that involves

The UFE Prospective scenarios for energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

After an overview of the French energy consumption in 2011 (final energy consumption, distribution of CO 2 emissions related to energy consumption), this Power Point presentation proposes graphs and figures illustrating UFE's prospective scenarios for energy demand. The objective is to foresee energy demand in 2050, to study the impact of possible actions on energy demand, and to assess the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses relate to demographic evolution, economic growth, energy intensity evolution, energy efficiency, and use transfers. Factors of evolution of energy demand are discussed: relationship between demography and energy consumption, new uses of electricity (notably with TICs), relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Actions on demand are discussed. The results of different scenarios of technical evolution are presented

Brazilian demand for Iodine-125 seeds in cancer treatment after a decade of medical procedures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Costa, Osvaldo L. da; Souza, Daiane C.B. de; Feher, Anselmo; Moura, João A.; Souza, Carla D.; Oliveira, Henrique B. de; Peleiras Junior, Fernando S.; Zeituni, CArlos A.; Rostelaro, Maria E.C.M., E-mail: olcosta@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2017-07-01

Iodine-125 and palladium-103 are radionuclides employed to made medical devices used in cancer treatment known as brachytherapy seeds. These radioactive sealed sources are applied in brain and ophthalmic cancer as a temporary implant to irradiate the tumor and in permanent implants to prostatic cancer. Brazilian Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN) has the monopoly in Brazil of iodine-125 brachytherapy seeds distribution which is executed for Nuclear and Energy Research Institute (IPEN-CNEN/SP). Along a decade of use in Brazil more than 240 thousand seeds were implanted in patients or used to treat cancer tumors. In this article the Brazilian demand for iodine-125 brachytherapy seeds is analyzed. The demand behavior along a decade of using loose, strand, ophthalmic and brain brachytherapy seeds are shown. The annual quantity of seeds demanded by Brazil has dropped since 2012. The loose seeds which represented until 30% from total brachytherapy seeds used in Brazil decreased to less than 3%. The brain brachytherapy seeds had low demand along the decade and presented zero demand in several years. Concurrent treatment techniques are listed and main trends are discussed. The influence of Brazilian economic crisis and the demand behavior of the main hospitals and clinics that use Iodine-125 brachytherapy are shown. (author)

Brazilian demand for Iodine-125 seeds in cancer treatment after a decade of medical procedures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costa, Osvaldo L. da; Souza, Daiane C.B. de; Feher, Anselmo; Moura, João A.; Souza, Carla D.; Oliveira, Henrique B. de; Peleiras Junior, Fernando S.; Zeituni, CArlos A.; Rostelaro, Maria E.C.M.

2017-01-01

Iodine-125 and palladium-103 are radionuclides employed to made medical devices used in cancer treatment known as brachytherapy seeds. These radioactive sealed sources are applied in brain and ophthalmic cancer as a temporary implant to irradiate the tumor and in permanent implants to prostatic cancer. Brazilian Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN) has the monopoly in Brazil of iodine-125 brachytherapy seeds distribution which is executed for Nuclear and Energy Research Institute (IPEN-CNEN/SP). Along a decade of use in Brazil more than 240 thousand seeds were implanted in patients or used to treat cancer tumors. In this article the Brazilian demand for iodine-125 brachytherapy seeds is analyzed. The demand behavior along a decade of using loose, strand, ophthalmic and brain brachytherapy seeds are shown. The annual quantity of seeds demanded by Brazil has dropped since 2012. The loose seeds which represented until 30% from total brachytherapy seeds used in Brazil decreased to less than 3%. The brain brachytherapy seeds had low demand along the decade and presented zero demand in several years. Concurrent treatment techniques are listed and main trends are discussed. The influence of Brazilian economic crisis and the demand behavior of the main hospitals and clinics that use Iodine-125 brachytherapy are shown. (author)

Conceptual model and economic experiments to explain nonpersistence and enable mechanism designs fostering behavioral change.

Science.gov (United States)

Djawadi, Behnud Mir; Fahr, René; Turk, Florian

2014-12-01

Medical nonpersistence is a worldwide problem of striking magnitude. Although many fields of studies including epidemiology, sociology, and psychology try to identify determinants for medical nonpersistence, comprehensive research to explain medical nonpersistence from an economics perspective is rather scarce. The aim of the study was to develop a conceptual framework that augments standard economic choice theory with psychological concepts of behavioral economics to understand how patients' preferences for discontinuing with therapy arise over the course of the medical treatment. The availability of such a framework allows the targeted design of mechanisms for intervention strategies. Our conceptual framework models the patient as an active economic agent who evaluates the benefits and costs for continuing with therapy. We argue that a combination of loss aversion and mental accounting operations explains why patients discontinue with therapy at a specific point in time. We designed a randomized laboratory economic experiment with a student subject pool to investigate the behavioral predictions. Subjects continue with therapy as long as experienced utility losses have to be compensated. As soon as previous losses are evened out, subjects perceive the marginal benefit of persistence lower than in the beginning of the treatment. Consequently, subjects start to discontinue with therapy. Our results highlight that concepts of behavioral economics capture the dynamic structure of medical nonpersistence better than does standard economic choice theory. We recommend that behavioral economics should be a mandatory part of the development of possible intervention strategies aimed at improving patients' compliance and persistence behavior. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Economic and social demands for coastal protection

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Polome, Philippe; Marzetti, S.; van der Veen, A.

2005-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to present methods and examples of economic valuation in the framework of cost–benefit analysis of coastal defense schemes. We summarize the concepts of value in economics and their application to coastal erosion defense. We describe the results of an original benefit

Option value of electricity demand response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sezgen, Osman; Goldman, C.A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley CA 94720 (United States); Krishnarao, P. [Citigroup Energy Inc., 1301 Fannin St, Houston, TX 77002 (United States)

2007-02-15

As electricity markets deregulate and energy tariffs increasingly expose customers to commodity price volatility, it is difficult for energy consumers to assess the economic value of investments in technologies that manage electricity demand in response to changing energy prices. The key uncertainties in evaluating the economics of demand-response technologies are the level and volatility of future wholesale energy prices. In this paper, we demonstrate that financial engineering methodologies originally developed for pricing equity and commodity derivatives (e.g., futures, swaps, options) can be used to estimate the value of demand-response technologies. We adapt models used to value energy options and assets to value three common demand-response strategies: load curtailment, load shifting or displacement, and short-term fuel substitution-specifically, distributed generation. These option models represent an improvement to traditional discounted cash flow methods for assessing the relative merits of demand-side technology investments in restructured electricity markets. (author)

Option value of electricity demand response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sezgen, Osman; Goldman, C.A.; Krishnarao, P.

2007-01-01

As electricity markets deregulate and energy tariffs increasingly expose customers to commodity price volatility, it is difficult for energy consumers to assess the economic value of investments in technologies that manage electricity demand in response to changing energy prices. The key uncertainties in evaluating the economics of demand-response technologies are the level and volatility of future wholesale energy prices. In this paper, we demonstrate that financial engineering methodologies originally developed for pricing equity and commodity derivatives (e.g., futures, swaps, options) can be used to estimate the value of demand-response technologies. We adapt models used to value energy options and assets to value three common demand-response strategies: load curtailment, load shifting or displacement, and short-term fuel substitution-specifically, distributed generation. These option models represent an improvement to traditional discounted cash flow methods for assessing the relative merits of demand-side technology investments in restructured electricity markets. (author)

Who needs the assumption of opportunistic behavior? Transaction cost economics does not!

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koch, Carsten Allan

2000-01-01

The assumption of opportunistic behavior, familiar from transaction cost economics, has been and remains highly controversial. But opportunistic behavior, albeit undoubtedly an extremely important form of motivation, is not a necessary condition for the contractual problems studied by transaction...

Recycling of water of high pressure cleaning of pipes. Phase 1. Quality demands and economical aspects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Weers, A.W.; Zwaard, J.

1999-01-01

According to the regulation 6.1 in the current licence Surface Water Pollution Law (WVO, abbreviated in Dutch) of October 10, 1997, ECN carried out the first phase of a study on the title subject with respect to pipes applied in oil and gas exploration. In the present situation water of the so-called pipe-cleaner is transported via a seapipe after precipitation and membrane filtration. Next to the quality demands and economical aspects attention is paid to a number of environmental aspects

Understanding energy consumption behaviors in order to adapt demand response measures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vassileva, Iana; Wallin, Fredrik; Dahlquist, Erik [Malardalen University (Sweden)], email: iana.vassileva@mdh.se, email: fredrik.wallin@mdh.se, email: erik.dahlquist@mdh.se

2011-07-01

When new price strategies and other demand-response measures are being established, it is important that amounts of electricity consumed and the potential for consumer participation be given serious consideration. It is important to encourage consumers to use less electricity if sustainable use of energy is to be achieved. Demand-response is a key component of the smart grids concept. So it is vital to get a comprehensive understanding of how different processes and factors influence the end use of energy. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of questionnaire responses from 2000 households in Vaxjo, Sweden. It sheds new light on the energy consumption behaviors of Swedish householders. Since 2008 Vaxjo householder customers have been able to check their own daily electricity consumption and get advice and tips, via a website provided by the local energy company, on how to lower the use of electricity. At the present time, of those responding to the questionnaire, this website is visited more frequently by people who live in houses than in apartments.

Asia-Pacific region's oil demand growth strains refining capacity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1993-01-01

The rapidly industrializing Asia-Pacific region has become a stand-alone economic force and the world's growth market for oil. Japan remains the region's premier economic powerhouse but no longer its only one. And Asia-Pacific economic fortunes have decoupled from the more-mature economies of Europe and the U.S. The East-West Center, Honolulu, in January projected Asia-Pacific average oil demand growth of 3.6%/year through 1999, nearly double what most economists expect for oil demand growth worldwide. Demand reached 14.5 million b/d in 1992, up 862,000 b/d from 1991. East-West Center analysts project demand of 16.4 million b/d in 1995 and 19.1 million b/d by 2000. Not all analysts expect such rapid growth for the region. Edward N. Krapels, president of Energy Security Analysis Inc., Washington, D.C., told a seminar in Houston during March that demand in Southeast Asia will grow at an average of 500,000 b/d/year. The paper discusses economic strength; regional demand; the pressure on refining; the shortfall seen; an opposing view from the Energy Security Analysis; and construction activity

Pigeons' demand and preference for specific and generalized conditioned reinforcers in a token economy.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Lavinia; Hackenberg, Timothy D

2015-11-01

Pigeons' demand and preference for specific and generalized tokens was examined in a token economy. Pigeons could produce and exchange different colored tokens for food, for water, or for food or water. Token production was measured across three phases, which examined: (1) across-session price increases (typical demand curve method); (2) within-session price increases (progressive-ratio, PR, schedule); and (3) concurrent pairwise choices between the token types. Exponential demand curves were fitted to the response data and accounted for over 90% total variance. Demand curve parameter values, Pmax , Omax and α showed that demand was ordered in the following way: food tokens, generalized tokens, water tokens, both in Phase 1 and in Phase 3. This suggests that the preferences were predictable on the basis of elasticity and response output from the demand analysis. Pmax and Omax values failed to consistently predict breakpoints and peak response rates in the PR schedules in Phase 2, however, suggesting limits on a unitary conception of reinforcer efficacy. The patterns of generalized token production and exchange in Phase 3 suggest that the generalized tokens served as substitutes for the specific food and water tokens. Taken together, the present findings demonstrate the utility of behavioral economic concepts in the analysis of generalized reinforcement. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Approaches based on behavioral economics could help nudge patients and providers toward lower health spending growth.

Science.gov (United States)

King, Dominic; Greaves, Felix; Vlaev, Ivo; Darzi, Ara

2013-04-01

Policies that change the environment or context in which decisions are made and "nudge" people toward particular choices have been relatively ignored in health care. This article examines the role that approaches based on behavioral economics could play in "nudging" providers and patients in ways that could slow health care spending growth. The basic insight of behavioral economics is that behavior is guided by the very fallible human brain and greatly influenced by the environment or context in which choices are made. In policy arenas such as pensions and personal savings, approaches based on behavioral economics have provided notable results. In health care, such approaches have been used successfully but in limited ways, as in the use of surgical checklists that have increased patient safety and reduced costs. With health care spending climbing at unsustainable rates, we review the role that approaches based on behavioral economics could play in offering policy makers a potential set of new tools to slow spending growth.

Clinical efficacy and economic evaluation of online cognitive behavioral therapy for major depressive disorder: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahern, Elayne; Kinsella, Stephen; Semkovska, Maria

2018-02-01

Leading cause of disability worldwide, depression is the most prevalent mental disorder with growing societal costs. As mental health services demand often outweighs provision, accessible treatment options are needed. Our systematic review and meta-analysis evaluated the clinical efficacy and economic evidence for the use of online cognitive behavioral therapy (oCBT) as an accessible treatment solution for depression. Areas covered: Electronic databases were searched for controlled trials published between 2006 and 2016. Of the reviewed 3,324 studies, 29 met the criteria for inclusion in the efficacy meta-analysis. The systematic review identified five oCBT economic evaluations. Therapist-supported oCBT was equivalent to face-to-face CBT at improving depressive symptoms and superior to treatment-as-usual, waitlist control, and attention control. Depression severity, number of sessions, or support did not affect efficacy. From a healthcare provider perspective, oCBT tended to show greater costs with greater benefits in the short term, relative to comparator treatments. Expert commentary: Although efficacious, further economic evidence is required to support the provision of oCBT as a cost-effective treatment for depression. Economic evaluations that incorporate a societal perspective will better account for direct and indirect treatment costs. Nevertheless, oCBT shows promise of effectively improving depressive symptoms, considering limited mental healthcare resources.

Managing travel demand: Location recommendation for system efficiency based on mobile phone data

OpenAIRE

Leng, Yan; Rudolph, Larry; Pentland, Alex 'Sandy'; Zhao, Jinhua; Koutsopolous, Haris N.

2016-01-01

Growth in leisure travel has become increasingly significant economically, socially, and environmentally. However, flexible but uncoordinated travel behaviors exacerbate traffic congestion. Mobile phone records not only reveal human mobility patterns, but also enable us to manage travel demand for system efficiency. In this paper, we propose a location recommendation system that infers personal preferences while accounting for constraints imposed by road capacity in order to manage travel dem...

Modeling human behavior in economics and social science.

Science.gov (United States)

Dolfin, M; Leonida, L; Outada, N

2017-12-01

The complex interactions between human behaviors and social economic sciences is critically analyzed in this paper in view of possible applications of mathematical modeling as an attainable interdisciplinary approach to understand and simulate the aforementioned dynamics. The quest is developed along three steps: Firstly an overall analysis of social and economic sciences indicates the main requirements that a contribution of mathematical modeling should bring to these sciences; subsequently the focus moves to an overview of mathematical tools and to the selection of those which appear, according to the authors bias, appropriate to the modeling; finally, a survey of applications is presented looking ahead to research perspectives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Wood supply and demand

Science.gov (United States)

Peter J. Ince; David B. McKeever

2011-01-01

At times in history, there have been concerns that demand for wood (timber) would be greater than the ability to supply it, but that concern has recently dissipated. The wood supply and demand situation has changed because of market transitions, economic downturns, and continued forest growth. This article provides a concise overview of this change as it relates to the...

Uranium supply and demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spriggs, M J

1976-01-01

Papers were presented on the pattern of uranium production in South Africa; Australian uranium--will it ever become available; North American uranium resources, policies, prospects, and pricing; economic and political environment of the uranium mining industry; alternative sources of uranium supply; whither North American demand for uranium; and uranium demand and security of supply--a consumer's point of view. (LK)

Assessing the state-level consequences of global warming: Socio-economic and energy demand impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rubin, B.M. Gailmard, S.; Marsh, D.; Septoff, A.

1996-01-01

The large body of research on climate change has begun to recognize a significant deficiency: the lack of analysis of the impact of climate change at a spatial level consistent with the anticipated occurrence of climate change. Climate change is likely to vary by region, while impact analysis has focused on much larger political units. Clearly, adaptation/mitigation strategies must be developed at a level consistent with political and policy-making processes. This paper specifically addresses this deficiency by identifying the potential socio-economic and energy demand consequences of climate change for subnational regions. This is accomplished via the development and application of a regional simultaneous equation, econometric simulation model that focuses on five states (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin) in the Great Lakes region of the US. This paper presents a process for obtaining state-specific assessments of the consequences of climate change for the socio-economic system. As such, it provides an indication of which economic sectors are most sensitive to climate change for a specific state (Indiana), a set of initial mitigation/adaptation strategies for this state, and the results of testing these strategies in the policy analysis framework enabled by the model. In addition, the research demonstrates an effective methodology for assessing impacts and policy implications of climate change at a level consistent with policy making authority

Harnessing the power of demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sheffrin, Anjali; Yoshimura, Henry; LaPlante, David; Neenan, Bernard

2008-03-15

Demand response can provide a series of economic services to the market and also provide ''insurance value'' under low-likelihood, but high-impact circumstances in which grid reliablity is enhanced. Here is how ISOs and RTOs are fostering demand response within wholesale electricity markets. (author)

FACTORS DECREASING HOUSEHOLD ELECTRICITY DEMAND – A QUALITATIVE APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shimon ELBAZ

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Reducing energy consumption through changes in individual consumers’ behaviors is one of the most important challenges of the present society and near future. Our qualitative study, based on semi-structured interviews, deals with the investigation of household consumer behavior, in order to explore ways for reducing the electricity demand, in the particular cultural context of a country with high levels of energy consumption in both summer and winter times – Israel. Various approaches, coming from economics, sociology, psychology or education were tested, for limiting the use of a particular, invisible and intangible merchandise - electricity. The main objective of the present study was to determine consumers’ perceptions about the various approaches that could be used to decrease the domestic demand and consumption of electricity. A secondary objective was to identify, based on consumers’ perceptions, the factors of influence that could be used in future quantitative researches and governance strategies. We found out that investigated families have a high level of education in the field of electricity consumption and marketing campaigns, which would make the classic energy educational approach less efficient. Household electricity consumers in Israel have awareness and willingness not to waste or consume electricity beyond what is necessary, but the necessary level is positioned quite high. The social comparison approach appears to be ineffective, as well, even if it proved its efficiency in other cultures. The psychological and the economic approach could be partially efficient, if certain influence factors are widely used. These factors include mainly the magnitude of the savings, the perceived behavioral control, the personal thermal comfort and the pro-environmental attitude. The most important managerial implication concerns the strategies that could be conceived by electricity companies and national authorities – based on un

The use of the life-style concept in travel demand models

OpenAIRE

I Salomon; M Ben-Akiva

1983-01-01

The concept of life-style is becoming a major differentiating trait between population groups substituting for economic and social classes. This paper describes the utilization of the concept of life-style in the context of travel demand models. Life-style is defined as a pattern of behavior under constrained resources which conforms to the orientations an individual has toward three major `life decisions' he or she must make: (a) formation of a household (of any type), (b) participation in t...

On energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haefele, W.

1977-01-01

Since the energy crisis, a number of energy plans have been proposed, and almost all of these envisage some kind of energy demand adaptations or conservation measures, hoping thus to escape the anticipated problems of energy supply. However, there seems to be no clear explanation of the basis on which our foreseeable future energy problems could be eased. And in fact, a first attempt at a more exact definition of energy demand and its interaction with other objectives, such as economic ones, shows that it is a highly complex concept which we still hardly understand. The article explains in some detail why it is so difficult to understand energy demand

Behavioral Economics and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program:: Making the Healthy Choice the Easy Choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Ammerman, Alice S; Hartman, Terry; DeMarco, Molly M

2017-02-01

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) serves as an important nutritional safety net program for many Americans. Given its aim to use traditional economic levers to provide access to food, the SNAP program includes minimal nutritional requirements and restrictions. As food choices are influenced by more than just economic constraints, behavioral economics may offer insights and tools for altering food purchases for SNAP users. This manuscript outlines behavioral economics strategies that have potential to encourage healthier food choices within the SNAP program. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Market design for rapid demand response

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Kurt; Tamirat, Tseganesh Wubale

We suggest a market design for rapid demand response in electricity markets. The solution consists of remotely controlled switches, meters, forecasting models as well as a flexible auction market to set prices and select endusers job by job. The auction market motivates truth-telling and makes...... it simple to involve the endusers in advance and to activate demand response immediately. The collective solution is analyzed and economic simulations are conducted for the case of Kenya. Kenya has been su ering from unreliable electricity supply for many years and companies and households have learned...... to adjust by investments in backup generators. We focus on turning the many private backup generators into a demand response system. The economic simulation focuses on possible distortion introduced by various ways of splitting the generated surplus from the demand response system. An auction run instantly...

Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 °C climate stabilization

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Chan; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Takakura, Jun’ya; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki

2018-04-01

Energy demand associated with space heating and cooling is expected to be affected by climate change. There are several global projections of space heating and cooling use that take into consideration climate change, but a comprehensive uncertainty of socioeconomic and climate conditions, including a 1.5 °C global mean temperature change, has never been assessed. This paper shows the economic impact of changes in energy demand for space heating and cooling under multiple socioeconomic and climatic conditions. We use three shared socioeconomic pathways as socioeconomic conditions. For climate conditions, we use two representative concentration pathways that correspond to 4.0 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios, and a 1.5 °C scenario driven from the 2.0 °C scenario with assumption in conjunction with five general circulation models. We find that the economic impacts of climate change are largely affected by socioeconomic assumptions, and global GDP change rates range from +0.21% to ‑2.01% in 2100 under the 4.0 °C scenario, depending on the socioeconomic condition. Sensitivity analysis that differentiates the thresholds of heating and cooling degree days clarifies that the threshold is a strong factor that generates these differences. Meanwhile, the impact of the 1.5 °C is small regardless of socioeconomic assumptions (‑0.02% to ‑0.06%). The economic loss caused by differences in socioeconomic assumption under the 1.5 °C scenario is much smaller than that under the 2 °C scenario, which implies that stringent climate mitigation can work as a risk hedge to socioeconomic development diversity.

A nudge toward participation: Improving clinical trial enrollment with behavioral economics.

Science.gov (United States)

VanEpps, Eric M; Volpp, Kevin G; Halpern, Scott D

2016-07-20

Interventions informed by behavioral economics can address barriers to patient enrollment in clinical trials and improve recruitment efforts. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Applying the behavioral economics principle of unit price to DRO schedule thinning.

Science.gov (United States)

Roane, Henry S; Falcomata, Terry S; Fisher, Wayne W

2007-01-01

Within the context of behavioral economics, the ratio of response requirements to reinforcer magnitude is called unit price. In this investigation, we yoked increases in reinforcer magnitude with increases in intervals of differential reinforcement of other behavior (DRO) to thin DRO intervals to a terminal value.

Matching Behavior as a Tradeoff Between Reward Maximization and Demands on Neural Computation [version 2; referees: 2 approved

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Kubanek

2015-10-01

Full Text Available When faced with a choice, humans and animals commonly distribute their behavior in proportion to the frequency of payoff of each option. Such behavior is referred to as matching and has been captured by the matching law. However, matching is not a general law of economic choice. Matching in its strict sense seems to be specifically observed in tasks whose properties make matching an optimal or a near-optimal strategy. We engaged monkeys in a foraging task in which matching was not the optimal strategy. Over-matching the proportions of the mean offered reward magnitudes would yield more reward than matching, yet, surprisingly, the animals almost exactly matched them. To gain insight into this phenomenon, we modeled the animals' decision-making using a mechanistic model. The model accounted for the animals' macroscopic and microscopic choice behavior. When the models' three parameters were not constrained to mimic the monkeys' behavior, the model over-matched the reward proportions and in doing so, harvested substantially more reward than the monkeys. This optimized model revealed a marked bottleneck in the monkeys' choice function that compares the value of the two options. The model featured a very steep value comparison function relative to that of the monkeys. The steepness of the value comparison function had a profound effect on the earned reward and on the level of matching. We implemented this value comparison function through responses of simulated biological neurons. We found that due to the presence of neural noise, steepening the value comparison requires an exponential increase in the number of value-coding neurons. Matching may be a compromise between harvesting satisfactory reward and the high demands placed by neural noise on optimal neural computation.

Effects of Economic Factors on Demand for Luxury Hotel Rooms in the U.S.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuan V. TRAN

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to estimate the effects of economic factors on the demand for luxury hotel rooms in the United States during the 16-year period (1998 - 2013. The average daily rate of six types of hotel rooms, gross domestic product and two recessions (2001 and 2007-2009 are considered as independent variables in the sample of the time series data set of 192 points to predict luxury room night stays of customers by ex-post data. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model is employed to select the best model of luxury hotel demand on its determinants in the short and long run relationships. Findings indicate that in the long run, (1 the US residents would stay more nights in luxury hotels when their income increases; (2 the Canadian and UK might not visit or stay in the luxury hotels in the U.S. when their income or luxury hotel price increases; and (3 the German, Japanese, Korean and Chinese visitors would stay in the luxury hotels in the U.S. when their incomes increase no matter what the luxury hotel price increases. In the short run, the Chinese, Japanese, and Korean might not stay in the luxury hotels in the U.S. when their income or hotel price increases. The English would stay in the luxury hotels when their income or luxury hotel price increases. Finally, the two US economy recessions in 2001 and 2007-2009 do not affect the demand for luxury hotel rooms in the long run.

How Much Is Too Much to Pay for Internet Access? A Behavioral Economic Analysis of Internet Use.

Science.gov (United States)

Broadbent, Julie; Dakki, Michelle A

2015-08-01

The popularity of online recreational activities, such as social networking, has dramatically increased the amount of time spent on the Internet. Excessive or inappropriate use of the Internet can result in serious adverse consequences. The current study used a behavioral economic task to determine if the amount of time spent online by problematic and nonproblematic users can be modified by price. The Internet Purchase Task was used to determine how much time undergraduate students (N=233) would spend online at 13 different prices. Despite high demand for Internet access when access was free, time spent online by both problematic and nonproblematic users decreased dramatically, even at low prices. These results suggest that the amount of time spent online may be modified by having a tangible cost associated with use, whereas having free access to the Internet may encourage excessive, problematic use.

Divers of Passenger Demand

OpenAIRE

Wittmer, Andreas

2011-01-01

-Overview drivers of passenger demand -Driver 1: Economic growth in developing countries -Driver 2: International business travel in developed countries -Driver 3: International leisure travel in developed countries

Effects off system factors on the economics of and demand for small solar thermal power systems

Science.gov (United States)

1981-09-01

Market penetration as a function time, SPS performance factors, and market/economic considerations was estimated, and commercialization strategies were formulated. A market analysis task included personal interviews and supplemental mail surveys to acquire statistical data and to identify and measure attitudes, reactions and intentions of prospective SPS users. Interviews encompassed three ownership classes of electric utilities and industrial firms in the SIC codes for energy consumption. A market demand model was developed which utilized the data base developed, and projected energy price and consumption data to perform sensitivity analyses and estimate potential market for SPS.

Psychopathology and tobacco demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Farris, Samantha G; Aston, Elizabeth R; Zvolensky, Michael J; Abrantes, Ana M; Metrik, Jane

2017-08-01

Behavioral economic measurement of the relative value of tobacco (Cigarette Purchase Task; CPT) is used to examine individual differences in motivation for tobacco under certain contexts. Smokers with psychopathology, relative to those without, may demonstrate stronger demand for tobacco following a period of smoking deprivation, which could account for disparate rates of smoking and cessation among this subgroup. Participants (n=111) were community-recruited adult daily smokers who completed the CPT after a deprivation period of approximately 60min. Presence of psychopathology was assessed via clinical interview; 40.5% (n=45) of the sample met criteria for past-year psychological diagnosis. Specifically, 31.5% (n=35) had an emotional disorder (anxiety/depressive disorder), 17.1% (n=19) had a substance use disorder, and 19.1% of the sample had more than one disorder. Smokers with any psychopathology showed significantly higher intensity (demand at unrestricted cost; $0) and O max (peak expenditure for a drug) relative to smokers with no psychopathology. Intensity was significantly higher among smokers with an emotional disorder compared to those without. Smokers with a substance use disorder showed significantly higher intensity and O max , and lower elasticity, reflecting greater insensitivity to price increases. Having≥2 disorders was associated with higher intensity relative to having 1 or no disorders. Findings suggest that presence of psychopathology may be associated with greater and more persistent motivation to smoke. Future work is needed to explore the mechanism linking psychopathology to tobacco demand. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Breaking out of the economic box: energy efficiency, social rationality and non-economic drivers of behavioral change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ehrhardt-Martinez, Karen; Laitner, John A. ' Skip' (ACEEE, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Washington, D.C. (United States))

2009-07-01

Energy concerns are increasingly on people's minds. According to a recent Gallup poll, nearly 30 percent of American's reported that energy prices were the most important financial problem facing their families today. But are these new concerns likely to translate into long-term behavioral changes and more energy-efficient behavior? Research suggests that it will take more than high prices to achieve maximum energy savings. People may like to think of themselves as rational economic actors, but a variety of studies by social-psychologists and behavioral economists reveal that people often act in ways that may be better described as 'socially-rational' and 'predictably irrational'. Despite these findings, many residential energy programs and most policy assessments continue to model potential energy savings as a function of existing technologies and the cost of those energy resources. This paper explores the ways in which individual behavior is shaped by the social context within which people operate and presents an alternative framework for modeling efficiency behavior. The alternative model recognizes that while individuals may not always behave in economically-rational ways, their behavior may be entirely rational from other vantage points. In fact, individuals often behave as rational social actors, determining what is and isn't 'appropriate' behavior by gleaning information from their own observations, from their peers, and from interactions within their sphere of social influence. As such, this paper explores the ways in which social rules, resources and context shape individual patterns of energy consumption. This alternative approach has important implications for program designs and policy recommendations.

Applying the Behavioral Economics Principle of Unit Price to DRO Schedule Thinning

Science.gov (United States)

Roane, Henry S.; Falcomata, Terry S.; Fisher, Wayne W.

2007-01-01

Within the context of behavioral economics, the ratio of response requirements to reinforcer magnitude is called "unit price." In this investigation, we yoked increases in reinforcer magnitude with increases in intervals of differential reinforcement of other behavior (DRO) to thin DRO intervals to a terminal value. (Contains 1 figure.)

Behavioral Economics: “Nudging” Underserved Populations to Be Screened for Cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Tess; Kreuter, Matthew W.; McBride, Timothy D.

2015-01-01

Persistent disparities in cancer screening by race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status require innovative prevention tools and techniques. Behavioral economics provides tools to potentially reduce disparities by informing strategies and systems to increase prevention of breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers. With an emphasis on the predictable, but sometimes flawed, mental shortcuts (heuristics) people use to make decisions, behavioral economics offers insights that practitioners can use to enhance evidence-based cancer screening interventions that rely on judgments about the probability of developing and detecting cancer, decisions about competing screening options, and the optimal presentation of complex choices (choice architecture). In the area of judgment, we describe ways practitioners can use the availability and representativeness of heuristics and the tendency toward unrealistic optimism to increase perceptions of risk and highlight benefits of screening. We describe how several behavioral economic principles involved in decision-making can influence screening attitudes, including how framing and context effects can be manipulated to highlight personally salient features of cancer screening tests. Finally, we offer suggestions about ways practitioners can apply principles related to choice architecture to health care systems in which cancer screening takes place. These recommendations include the use of incentives to increase screening, introduction of default options, appropriate feedback throughout the decision-making and behavior completion process, and clear presentation of complex choices, particularly in the context of colorectal cancer screening. We conclude by noting gaps in knowledge and propose future research questions to guide this promising area of research and practice. PMID:25590600

Demand scenarios, worldwide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

1996-11-01

Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

Presenting quality data to vulnerable groups: charts, summaries or behavioral economic nudges?

Science.gov (United States)

Elbel, Brian; Gillespie, Colleen; Raven, Maria C

2014-07-01

Despite the increased focus on health care consumers' active choice, not enough is known about how to best facilitate the choice process. We sought to assess methods of improving this process for vulnerable consumers in the United States by testing alternatives that emphasize insights from behavioral economics, or 'nudges'. We performed a hypothetical choice experiment where subjects were randomized to one of five experimental conditions and asked to choose a health center (location where they would receive all their care). The conditions presented the same information about health centers in different ways, including graphically as a chart, via written summary and using behavioral economics, 'nudging' consumers toward particular choices. We hypothesized that these 'nudges' might help simplify the choice process. Our primary outcomes focused on the health center chosen and whether consumers were willing to accept 'nudges'. We found that consumer choice was influenced by the method of presentation and the majority of consumers accepted the health center they were 'nudged' towards. Consumers were accepting of choices grounded in insights from behavioral economics and further consideration should be given to their role in patient choice. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONTRACTION TOWARDS LENDING BEHAVIOR OF BANKS IN INDONESIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rizky Yudaruddin

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The global financial crisis of 2008 that hit many countries had become an important concern, especially thebanking industry in Indonesia. This was because first, the experience of the economic crisis of 1997-1998.Second, the nature of the crisis could spread to other countries. So this study aimed to examine empirically theimpact of the global economic contraction on the behavior of bank credit in Indonesia. Using panel data sourcefrom the Word Bank and Bank Indonesia Year 2004-2012, the data were analyzed with Dynamic Panel Datausing E-views program 8. The results showed that the global economic contraction had a significant effect onthe behavior of credit in foreign and joint venture banks in Indonesia in 2004-2012.

Study on the hydrogen demand in China based on system dynamics model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma, Tao; Ji, Jie; Chen, Ming-qi

2010-01-01

Reasonable estimation of hydrogen energy and other renewable energy demand of China's medium and long-term energy is of great significance for China's medium and long-term energy plan. Therefore, based on both China's future economic development and relative economic theory and system dynamics theory, this article analyzes qualitatively the internal factors and external factors of hydrogen energy demand system, and makes the state high and low two assumptions about China's medium and long-term hydrogen demand according to the different speed of China's economic development. After the system dynamic model setting up export and operation, the output shows the data changes of the total hydrogen demand and the four kinds of hydrogen demand. According to the analysis of the output, two conclusions are concluded: The secondary industry, not the tertiary industry (mainly the transportation), should be firstly satisfied by the hydrogen R and D and support of Government policy. Change of Chinese hydrogen demand scale, on basis of its economic growth, can not be effective explained through Chinese economic growth rate, and other influencing factor and mechanism should be probed deeply. (author)

Consumer demand for cars in the USA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, R P

1975-01-01

Since the Second World War the American public has bought almost two hundred million cars, and the abrupt year to year variations in the number of new cars sold have had a substantial impact on the level of activity of the U.S. economy. This book examines the factors that determine the demand for cars and suggests an explanation for the large fluctuations in their sales. A wide variety of information, including data from market research, surveys of industry and consumer opinion, cross section studies and aggregate time series, is used to construct and estimate econometric models that will explain consumer decisions about the ownership, purchase and replacement of cars. This quantitative analysis is supplemented by information of a more qualitative nature on the significance for the car market of such factors as model changes, the oil crisis, and the prevailing social climate. One of the main conclusions of the book is that traditional neo-classical models of consumer behavior do not provide a satisfactory explanation of observed market behavior, and that account has to be taken of the role of variations in consumer confidence and expectations in determining demand. The study will be of interest to students and teachers of economics and business studies as well as to those concerned with the motor industry. (50 references) (from publisher's description)

WAEA Keynote Address Behavioral Environmental Economics: Money Pumps & Nudges

OpenAIRE

Shogren, Jason F.

2012-01-01

Herein we explore how money pumps from rational choice theory and nudges from behavioral economics work toward helping create better environmental policy. We examine the role of money pumps in environmental policy, and whether policymakers can use nudges to "supercharge" incentives. We summarize insight that has emerged from both camps in the areas of conflict/cooperation and mechanism design.

THE ROLE OF BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS IN EXPLAINING CONSUMPTION DECISION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihaela Andreea STROE

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The new economic approach starts from the idea that the individual does not need food, but feels the need to feed, or do not require newspapers, but feels the need of information. In this way, those who changes are not human preferences, but the way we satisfy them. At this stage of the paper, we explain the inconsistency in consumer preferences and the exceptions to the standard theory by making light upon what is called in behavioral economics: the effects of property, loss aversion and framing effects. In which concerns the standard economic model, it seems that there are discrepancies between objective measures of sources of comfort / discomfort and measures reported subjective sensations. Many defenders of classical model would argue that the measures are not reported subjective feelings of economic phenomena and therefore are not of interest to economists. However, when such feelings and sensations affect or may affect future decisions, things become relevant for the economy. Limited Rationality implies both that the agent is imperfectly informed decision-making in a complex and dynamic environment, and a limited ability processing.

A Transient Dopamine Signal Represents Avoidance Value and Causally Influences the Demand to Avoid

Science.gov (United States)

Pultorak, Katherine J.; Schelp, Scott A.; Isaacs, Dominic P.; Krzystyniak, Gregory

2018-01-01

Abstract While an extensive literature supports the notion that mesocorticolimbic dopamine plays a role in negative reinforcement, recent evidence suggests that dopamine exclusively encodes the value of positive reinforcement. In the present study, we employed a behavioral economics approach to investigate whether dopamine plays a role in the valuation of negative reinforcement. Using rats as subjects, we first applied fast-scan cyclic voltammetry (FSCV) to determine that dopamine concentration decreases with the number of lever presses required to avoid electrical footshock (i.e., the economic price of avoidance). Analysis of the rate of decay of avoidance demand curves, which depict an inverse relationship between avoidance and increasing price, allows for inference of the worth an animal places on avoidance outcomes. Rapidly decaying demand curves indicate increased price sensitivity, or low worth placed on avoidance outcomes, while slow rates of decay indicate reduced price sensitivity, or greater worth placed on avoidance outcomes. We therefore used optogenetics to assess how inducing dopamine release causally modifies the demand to avoid electrical footshock in an economic setting. Increasing release at an avoidance predictive cue made animals more sensitive to price, consistent with a negative reward prediction error (i.e., the animal perceives they received a worse outcome than expected). Increasing release at avoidance made animals less sensitive to price, consistent with a positive reward prediction error (i.e., the animal perceives they received a better outcome than expected). These data demonstrate that transient dopamine release events represent the value of avoidance outcomes and can predictably modify the demand to avoid. PMID:29766047

SU-E-J-102: Separation of Metabolic Supply and Demand: From Power Grid Economics to Cancer Metabolism

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Epstein, T; Xu, L; Gillies, R; Gatenby, R [Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, Tampa, FL (United States)

2014-06-01

Purpose: To study a new model of glucose metabolism which is primarily governed by the timescale of the energetic demand and not by the oxygen level, and its implication on cancer metabolism (Warburg effect) Methods: 1) Metabolic profiling of membrane transporters activity in several cell lines, which represent the spectrum from normal breast epithelium to aggressive, metastatic cancer, using Seahorse XF reader.2) Spatial localization of oxidative and non-oxidative metabolic components using immunocytochemical imaging of the glycolytic ATP-producing enzyme, pyruvate kinase and mitochondria. 3) Finite element simulations of coupled partial differential equations using COMSOL and MATLAB. Results: Inhibition or activation of pumps on the cell membrane led to reduction or increase in aerobic glycolysis, respectively, while oxidative phosphorylation remained unchanged. These results were consistent with computational simulations of changes in short-timescale demand for energy by cell membrane processes. A specific model prediction was that the spatial distribution of ATP-producing enzymes in the glycolytic pathway must be primarily localized adjacent to the cell membrane, while mitochondria should be predominantly peri-nuclear. These predictions were confirmed experimentally. Conclusion: The results in this work support a new model for glucose metabolism in which glycolysis and oxidative phosphorylation supply different types of energy demand. Similar to power grid economics, optimal metabolic control requires the two pathways, even in normoxic conditions, to match two different types of energy demands. Cells use aerobic metabolism to meet baseline, steady energy demand and glycolytic metabolism to meet short-timescale energy demands, mainly from membrane transport activities, even in the presence of oxygen. This model provides a mechanism for the origin of the Warburg effect in cancer cells. Here, the Warburg effect emerges during carcinogenesis is a physiological

SU-E-J-102: Separation of Metabolic Supply and Demand: From Power Grid Economics to Cancer Metabolism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Epstein, T; Xu, L; Gillies, R; Gatenby, R

2014-01-01

Purpose: To study a new model of glucose metabolism which is primarily governed by the timescale of the energetic demand and not by the oxygen level, and its implication on cancer metabolism (Warburg effect) Methods: 1) Metabolic profiling of membrane transporters activity in several cell lines, which represent the spectrum from normal breast epithelium to aggressive, metastatic cancer, using Seahorse XF reader.2) Spatial localization of oxidative and non-oxidative metabolic components using immunocytochemical imaging of the glycolytic ATP-producing enzyme, pyruvate kinase and mitochondria. 3) Finite element simulations of coupled partial differential equations using COMSOL and MATLAB. Results: Inhibition or activation of pumps on the cell membrane led to reduction or increase in aerobic glycolysis, respectively, while oxidative phosphorylation remained unchanged. These results were consistent with computational simulations of changes in short-timescale demand for energy by cell membrane processes. A specific model prediction was that the spatial distribution of ATP-producing enzymes in the glycolytic pathway must be primarily localized adjacent to the cell membrane, while mitochondria should be predominantly peri-nuclear. These predictions were confirmed experimentally. Conclusion: The results in this work support a new model for glucose metabolism in which glycolysis and oxidative phosphorylation supply different types of energy demand. Similar to power grid economics, optimal metabolic control requires the two pathways, even in normoxic conditions, to match two different types of energy demands. Cells use aerobic metabolism to meet baseline, steady energy demand and glycolytic metabolism to meet short-timescale energy demands, mainly from membrane transport activities, even in the presence of oxygen. This model provides a mechanism for the origin of the Warburg effect in cancer cells. Here, the Warburg effect emerges during carcinogenesis is a physiological

Physical activity counseling in primary care: Insights from public health and behavioral economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Shuval, Kerem; Leonard, Tammy; Drope, Jeffrey; Katz, David L; Patel, Alpa V; Maitin-Shepard, Melissa; Amir, On; Grinstein, Amir

2017-05-06

Physical inactivity has reached epidemic proportions in modern society. Abundant evidence points to a causal link between physical inactivity and increased risk for numerous noncommunicable diseases, such as some types of cancer and heart disease, as well as premature mortality. Yet, despite this overwhelming evidence, many individuals do not meet the recommended amount of physical activity required to achieve maximum health benefits. Because primary care physicians' advice is highly regarded, clinicians have the unique opportunity to play an important role in enabling patients to modify their behavior at the point of care with the goal of guiding patients to adopt and maintain an active lifestyle. In the current study, the authors evaluate pertinent literature from the fields of medicine/public health and economics/psychology to suggest a comprehensive approach to physical activity counseling at the primary care level. They first examine the public health approach to physical activity counseling, and then proceed to offer insights from behavioral economics, an emerging field that combines principles from psychology and economics. The application of key behavioral economics tools (eg, precommitment contracts, framing) to physical activity counseling in primary care is elaborated. CA Cancer J Clin 2017;67:233-244. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Can Food Stamps Do More to Improve Food Choices? An Economic Perspective--Making Healthy Food Choices Easier: Ideas From Behavioral Economics

OpenAIRE

Mancino, Lisa; Andrews, Margaret S.

2007-01-01

With obesity the most prevalent nutrition problem facing Americans at all economic levels, promoting diets that provide adequate nutrition without too many calories has become an important objective for the Food Stamp Program. Findings from behavioral economics suggest innovative, low-cost ways to improve the diet quality of food stamp participants without restricting their freedom of choice. Unlike more traditional economic interventions, such as changing prices or banning specific foods, th...

Wildfires and tourist behaviors in Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Brijesh Thapa; Ignatius Cahyanto; Stephen M. Holland; James D. Absher

2013-01-01

The impacts of wildfires on tourism have largely been examined with emphasis on economic losses and recovery strategies. Given the limited research from a demand perspective, this study examined tourist risk perceptions and reactionary behaviors toward wildfires in Florida. Data (N ¼ 771) was collected among a U.S. sample of non-resident overnight leisure travelers...

Pattern of Demand For Money

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmad Berlian

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In the activity of the modern economy, the availability of money as a means of transaction is very important, because with the money as a means to pay consumers can easily to get the basic material needs are required, the manufacturer can provide the raw materials of labor for production, and distributors can obtain a variety of merchandise to be delivered at the end consumer. The pattern of use of money is influenced by the attitude of the public in the transaction. Researchers assume, that there are differences among communities, either by group differences in income, educational differences, ethnic differences, differences in profession, and perhaps even religious differences embraced. So as to provide information to the monetary authorities, to enrich the theory of demand for money based economic agents in Indonesia, and for the application of the theory of demand for money, the researchers felt the need to study patterns of use of money. Qualitative research, in addition to knowing whether the variables that affect the demand for money as the above theory is still relevant for economic actors in Indonesia at this time, or even are new variables, as well as the motive of money demand. Keywords: Demand for money, Keynes Theory, qualitative method

Economic Assessment of Rising Global Demand for Farmland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hvid, Anna

and homogeneous group in a country with political competition and stability. However, if the power distribution between the farmers and the political-economic elite is highly equal, this may have negative welfare effects, because the competition for rents will be very high, and hence a large amount of resources...... incomes, with poverty reductions and general economic development as the ultimate outcome. On the other hand it could also induce a neo-colonial scramble for land, where politically and economically powerful actors appropriate land at the expense of rural populations, whose livelihoods depend on this land...... increasing land values will mainly benefit the rural populations or the political-economic elites. In addition, it takes into account the deeper determinants of the extent to which farmers are able to obtain political power, and thereby claim their rights to a share of the benefits from increased value...

Estimation of demand function on natural gas and study of demand analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Y.D. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

1998-04-01

Demand Function is estimated with several methods about the demand on natural gas, and analyzed per usage. Since the demand on natural gas, which has big share of heating use, has a close relationship with temperature, the inter-season trend of price and income elasticity is estimated considering temperature and economic formation. Per usage response of natural gas demand on the changes of price and income is also estimated. It was estimated that the response of gas demand on the changes of price and income occurs by the change of number of users in long term. In case of the response of unit consumption, only industrial use shows long-term response to price. Since gas price barely responds to the change of exchange rate, it seems to express the price-making mechanism that does not reflect timely the import condition such as exchange rate, etc. 16 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

Make the healthy choice the easy choice: using behavioral economics to advance a culture of health.

Science.gov (United States)

Volpp, K G; Asch, D A

2017-05-01

Despite great advances in the science and technology of health care, a large gap separates theoretically achievable advances in health from what individuals and populations actually achieve. Human behavior sits on the final common pathway to so many of our health and health care goals, including the prevention and management of illness and the fostering of wellness. Behavioral economics is a relatively new field offering approaches to supplement many of the conventional approaches to improving health behaviors that rely on education or standard economic theory. While those conventional approaches presume that an educated public will naturally make decisions that optimize personal welfare, approaches derived from behavioral economics harness existing and predictable patterns of behavior that often lead people to make choices against their best interests. By keeping these predictable patterns of behavior in mind when designing health insurance, health care programs or the health-related aspects of everyday life, behavioral economists aim to meet people half-way: no longer asking them to reshape their behavior to something more health promoting, but helping the behavioral patterns they already follow lead them to better health. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Association of Physicians. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The role of behavioral economic incentive design and demographic characteristics in financial incentive-based approaches to changing health behaviors: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Haff, Nancy; Patel, Mitesh S; Lim, Raymond; Zhu, Jingsan; Troxel, Andrea B; Asch, David A; Volpp, Kevin G

2015-01-01

To evaluate the use of behavioral economics to design financial incentives to promote health behavior change and to explore associations with demographic characteristics. Studies performed by the Center for Health Incentives and Behavioral Economics at the University of Pennsylvania published between January 2006 and March 2014. Randomized, controlled trials with available participant-level data. Studies that did not use financial incentives to promote health behavior change were excluded. Participant-level data from seven studies were pooled. Meta-analysis on the pooled sample using a random-effects model with interaction terms to examine treatment effects and whether they varied by incentive structure or demographic characteristics. The pooled study sample comprised 1403 participants, of whom 35% were female, 70% were white, 24% were black, and the mean age was 48 years (standard deviation 11.2 years). In the fully adjusted model, participants offered financial incentives had higher odds of behavior change (odds ratio [OR]: 3.96; p financial incentives and gender, age, race, income, or education. When further adjusting for incentive structure, blacks had higher odds than whites of achieving behavior change (OR: 1.67; p Financial incentives designed using concepts from behavioral economics were effective for promoting health behavior change. There were no large and consistent relationships between the effectiveness of financial incentives and observable demographic characteristics. Second-order examinations of incentive structure suggest potential relationships among the effectiveness of financial incentives, incentive structure, and the demographic characteristics of race and income.

Applying Behavioral Economics Concepts in Designing Usage-Based Car Insurance Products

OpenAIRE

Greenberg, Allen

2010-01-01

Behavioral economics, a discipline combining economics and psychology to explain consumer decision making, offers insights on how best to institute transportation pricing in a manner that is acceptable to drivers and also meets public policy objectives. As an example of how to use this relatively new discipline to enhance the acceptance and benefits of transportation pricing, its application to designing usage-based or pay-as-you-drive-and-you-save (PAYDAYS) insurance products is explored. Sp...

Equilibrium Model of Discrete Dynamic Supply Chain Network with Random Demand and Advertisement Strategy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guitao Zhang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The advertisement can increase the consumers demand; therefore it is one of the most important marketing strategies in the operations management of enterprises. This paper aims to analyze the impact of advertising investment on a discrete dynamic supply chain network which consists of suppliers, manufactures, retailers, and demand markets associated at different tiers under random demand. The impact of advertising investment will last several planning periods besides the current period due to delay effect. Based on noncooperative game theory, variational inequality, and Lagrange dual theory, the optimal economic behaviors of the suppliers, the manufactures, the retailers, and the consumers in the demand markets are modeled. In turn, the supply chain network equilibrium model is proposed and computed by modified project contraction algorithm with fixed step. The effectiveness of the model is illustrated by numerical examples, and managerial insights are obtained through the analysis of advertising investment in multiple periods and advertising delay effect among different periods.

Guidelines for forecasting energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sonino, T.

1976-11-01

Four methodologies for forecasting energy demand are reviewed here after considering the role of energy in the economy and the analysis of energy use in different economic sectors. The special case of Israel is considered throughout, and some forecasts for energy demands in the year 2000 are presented. An energy supply mix that may be considered feasible is proposed. (author)

Uranium resources, demand and production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stipanicic, P.N.

1985-05-01

Estimations of the demand and production of principal uranium resource categories are presented. The estimations based on data analysis made by a joint 'NEA/IAEA Working Party on Uranium Resources' and the corresponding results are published by the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) in the 'Uranium Resources, Production and Demand' Known as 'Red Book'. (M.C.K.) [pt

Emergent behavior in a coupled economic and coastline model for beach nourishment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. D. Lazarus

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Developed coastal areas often exhibit a strong systemic coupling between shoreline dynamics and economic dynamics. "Beach nourishment", a common erosion-control practice, involves mechanically depositing sediment from outside the local littoral system onto an actively eroding shoreline to alter shoreline morphology. Natural sediment-transport processes quickly rework the newly engineered beach, causing further changes to the shoreline that in turn affect subsequent beach-nourishment decisions. To the limited extent that this landscape/economic coupling has been considered, evidence suggests that towns tend to employ spatially myopic economic strategies under which individual towns make isolated decisions that do not account for their neighbors. What happens when an optimization strategy that explicitly ignores spatial interactions is incorporated into a physical model that is spatially dynamic? The long-term attractor that develops for the coupled system (the state and behavior to which the system evolves over time is unclear. We link an economic model, in which town-manager agents choose economically optimal beach-nourishment intervals according to past observations of their immediate shoreline, to a simplified coastal-dynamics model that includes alongshore sediment transport and background erosion (e.g. from sea-level rise. Simulations suggest that feedbacks between these human and natural coastal processes can generate emergent behaviors. When alongshore sediment transport and spatially myopic nourishment decisions are coupled, increases in the rate of sea-level rise can destabilize economically optimal nourishment practices into a regime characterized by the emergence of chaotic shoreline evolution.

Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension. Volume 1: Background and summary

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobson, I. D.

1978-01-01

The framework for a model of travel demand which will be useful in predicting the total market for air travel between two cities is discussed. Variables to be used in determining the need for air transportation where none currently exists and the effect of changes in system characteristics on attracting latent demand are identified. Existing models are examined in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. Much of the existing behavioral research in travel demand is incorporated to allow the inclusion of non-economic factors, such as convenience. The model developed is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed.

Preferences All the Way Down: Questioning the Neoclassical Foundations of Behavioral Economics and Libertarian Paternalism

OpenAIRE

White, Mark D.

2017-01-01

Behavioral economics has enriched our understanding of the limitations and imperfections of human decision-making that were neglected by the overly simplistic neoclassical model of choice. However insightful its results and clever its modifications to the traditional model of choice, much of behavioral economics is built upon the core of that model, constrained preference-satisfaction, which cannot accommodate many other aspects of human choice such as principles, ideals, judgment, and will. ...

Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hekkenberg, M.; Moll, H.C.; Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot

2009-01-01

Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a 'u' shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect future energy demand. This paper critically analyzes these implicit or explicit assumptions and their possible effect on the studies' outcomes. First we analyze the interaction between the socio-economic structure and the temperature dependence pattern (TDP) of energy demand. We find that socio-economic changes may alter the TDP in various ways. Next we investigate how current studies manage these dynamics in socio-economic structure. We find that many studies systematically misrepresent the possible effect of socio-economic changes on the TDP of energy demand. Finally, we assess the consequences of these misrepresentations in an energy demand model based on temperature dependence and climate scenarios. Our model results indicate that expected socio-economic dynamics generally lead to an underestimation of future energy demand in models that misrepresent such dynamics. We conclude that future energy demand models should improve the incorporation of socio-economic dynamics. We propose dynamically modeling several key parameters and using direct meteorological data instead of degree days. (author)

Projected national impact of colorectal cancer screening on clinical and economic outcomes and health services demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Ladabaum, Uri; Song, Kenneth

2005-10-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is effective and cost-effective, but the potential national impact of widespread screening is uncertain. It is controversial whether screening colonoscopy can be offered widely and how emerging tests may impact health services demand. Our aim was to produce integrated, comprehensive estimates of the impact of widespread screening on national clinical and economic outcomes and health services demand. We used a Markov model and census data to estimate the national consequences of screening 75% of the US population with conventional and emerging strategies. Screening decreased CRC incidence by 17%-54% to as few as 66,000 cases per year and CRC mortality by 28%-60% to as few as 23,000 deaths per year. With no screening, total annual national CRC-related expenditures were 8.4 US billion dollars. With screening, expenditures for CRC care decreased by 1.5-4.4 US billion dollars but total expenditures increased to 9.2-15.4 US billion dollars. Screening colonoscopy every 10 years required 8.1 million colonoscopies per year including surveillance, with other strategies requiring 17%-58% as many colonoscopies. With improved screening uptake, total colonoscopy demand increased in general, even assuming substantial use of virtual colonoscopy. Despite savings in CRC care, widespread screening is unlikely to be cost saving and may increase national expenditures by 0.8-2.8 US billion dollars per year with conventional tests. The current national endoscopic capacity, as recently estimated, may be adequate to support widespread use of screening colonoscopy in the steady state. The impact of emerging tests on colonoscopy demand will depend on the extent to which they replace screening colonoscopy or increase screening uptake in the population.

An Economic Order Quantity Model with Completely Backordering and Nondecreasing Demand under Two-Level Trade Credit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zohreh Molamohamadi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the traditional inventory system, it was implicitly assumed that the buyer pays to the seller as soon as he receives the items. In today’s competitive industry, however, the seller usually offers the buyer a delay period to settle the account of the goods. Not only the seller but also the buyer may apply trade credit as a strategic tool to stimulate his customers’ demands. This paper investigates the effects of the latter policy, two-level trade credit, on a retailer’s optimal ordering decisions within the economic order quantity framework and allowable shortages. Unlike most of the previous studies, the demand function of the customers is considered to increase with time. The objective of the retailer’s inventory model is to maximize the profit. The replenishment decisions optimally are obtained using genetic algorithm. Two special cases of the proposed model are discussed and the impacts of parameters on the decision variables are finally investigated. Numerical examples demonstrate the profitability of the developed two-level supply chain with backorder.

Pro-environmental behavior: rational choice meets moral motivation.

Science.gov (United States)

Turaga, Rama Mohana R; Howarth, Richard B; Borsuk, Mark E

2010-01-01

The determinants of individual behaviors that provide shared environmental benefits are a longstanding theme in social science research. Alternative behavioral models yield markedly different predictions and policy recommendations. This paper reviews and compares the literatures from two disciplines that appear to be moving toward a degree of convergence. In social psychology, moral theories of pro-environmental behavior have focused on the influence of personal moral norms while recognizing that external factors, such as costs and incentives, ultimately limit the strength of the norm-behavior relationship. Rational choice models, such as the theory of planned behavior in social psychology and the theories of voluntary provision of public goods in economics, have sought to incorporate the effects of personal norms and to measure their importance in explaining behaviors, such as recycling and the demand for green products. This paper explores the relationship between these approaches and their implications for the theory and practice of ecological economics.

Job demands, job resources, and behavior in times of sickness

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schneider, Daniel; Winter, Vera; Schreyögg, Jonas

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: The concept of presenteeism, that is, employees coming to work despite being sick, has recently received more attention in the literature. Presenteeism not only threatens employees' health but also substantially drains productivity and drives considerable costs. When they are sick......, employees have the choice of whether to go to work or to stay at home. Therefore, determinants of (sickness) absenteeism and presenteeism should be examined simultaneously. Nursing homes are faced with a particularly high prevalence of both absenteeism and presenteeism and are therefore a relevant object...... of investigation. PURPOSE: The aim of our study is to analyze the effect of job demands and job resources on absenteeism, presenteeism, and the tendency to choose one behavior (being absent or being present in times of sickness) rather than the other over the last 12 months. To do so, we identify the determinants...

Matching, Demand, Maximization, and Consumer Choice

Science.gov (United States)

Wells, Victoria K.; Foxall, Gordon R.

2013-01-01

The use of behavioral economics and behavioral psychology in consumer choice has been limited. The current study extends the study of consumer behavior analysis, a synthesis between behavioral psychology, economics, and marketing, to a larger data set. This article presents the current work and results from the early analysis of the data. We…

Demand for Women's Health Services in Northern Nigeria: A Review of the Literature.

Science.gov (United States)

Sinai, Irit; Anyanti, Jennifer; Khan, Mohsin; Daroda, Ramatu; Oguntunde, Olugbenga

2017-06-01

Demand for and utilization of women's health services in northern Nigeria are consistently low and health indicators in the region are among the poorest in the world. This literature review focuses on social and cultural barriers to contraceptive use, antenatal care, and facility births in northern Nigeria, and influencers of young women's health-seeking behavior. A thorough search of peer reviewed and grey literature yielded 41 publications that were synthesized and analyzed. The region's population is predominantly Muslim, practicing Islam as a complete way of life. While northern Nigerian society is slowly changing, most women still lack formal education, with a significant proportion married in their teens, and the majority neither socially nor economically empowered. The husband largely makes most household decisions, including utilization of healthcare services by members of his household. These practices directly impact women's health-seeking behaviors for themselves and for their children. Programs seeking to improve women's health outcomes in northern Nigeria should involve women's influencers to affect behavior change, including husbands, religious leaders, and others. More research is needed to identify pathways of information that can be utilized by programs designed to increase demand for health services.

Application of Demand Analysis in Marketing Continuing Education.

Science.gov (United States)

Waters, Elzberry, Jr.

This study investigated the feasibility of applying economic demand analysis (especially elasticity of demand) in marketing George Washington University off-campus degree programs. In the case under study, a supplemental budget request had to be submitted to meet expenses incurred by an unforeseen increase in demand for graduate and undergraduate…

Meeting energy demand in a developing economy without damaging the environment. A case study in Sabah, Malaysia, from technical, environmental and economic perspectives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koh, Siong Lee; Lim, Yun Seng [Department of Physical Science, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Tunku Abdul Rahman University (Malaysia)

2010-08-15

The challenges faced by the developing countries are unique in that they need to meet the increasing energy demands for their economic growths at a competitive price without damaging the environments. In this paper, a case study on the electricity demand issue in Sabah, Malaysia, is presented to investigate potential solutions in addressing this current need for a typical developing economy from the technical, economical and environmental perspectives. Sabah, one of the 13 states in Malaysia, is currently experiencing a serious power shortage, especially at the east coast. A 300 MW coal plant is proposed by the electricity utility company. However, the proposal has been rejected in the past several years due to the negative environmental impacts of the plant. In this paper, a number of alternative solutions were evaluated and proposed with respect to the viability of technologies, financial return and minimum environmental impact in terms of GHG emission. (author)

Meeting energy demand in a developing economy without damaging the environment-A case study in Sabah, Malaysia, from technical, environmental and economic perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koh, Siong Lee; Lim, Yun Seng

2010-01-01

The challenges faced by the developing countries are unique in that they need to meet the increasing energy demands for their economic growths at a competitive price without damaging the environments. In this paper, a case study on the electricity demand issue in Sabah, Malaysia, is presented to investigate potential solutions in addressing this current need for a typical developing economy from the technical, economical and environmental perspectives. Sabah, one of the 13 states in Malaysia, is currently experiencing a serious power shortage, especially at the east coast. A 300 MW coal plant is proposed by the electricity utility company. However, the proposal has been rejected in the past several years due to the negative environmental impacts of the plant. In this paper, a number of alternative solutions were evaluated and proposed with respect to the viability of technologies, financial return and minimum environmental impact in terms of GHG emission.

Socio-economic inequity in demand for insecticide-treated nets, in-door residual house spraying, larviciding and fogging in Sudan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mustafa Sara

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In order to optimally prioritize and use public and private budgets for equitable malaria vector control, there is a need to determine the level and determinants of consumer demand for different vector control tools. Objectives To determine the demand from people of different socio-economic groups for indoor residual house-spraying (IRHS, insecticide-treated nets (ITNs, larviciding with chemicals (LWC, and space spraying/fogging (SS and the disease control implications of the result. Methods Ratings and levels of willingness-to-pay (WTP for the vector control tools were determined using a random cross-sectional sample of 720 householdes drawn from two states. WTP was elicited using the bidding game. An asset-based socio-economic status (SES index was used to explore whether WTP was related to SES of the respondents. Results IRHS received the highest proportion of highest preferred rating (41.0% followed by ITNs (23.1%. However, ITNs had the highest mean WTP followed by IRHS, while LWC had the least. The regression analysis showed that SES was positively and statistically significantly related to WTP across the four vector control tools and that the respondents' rating of IRHS and ITNs significantly explained their levels of WTP for the two tools. Conclusion People were willing to pay for all the vector-control tools, but the demand for the vector control tools was related to the SES of the respondents. Hence, it is vital that there are public policies and financing mechanisms to ensure equitable provision and utilisation of vector control tools, as well as protecting the poor from cost-sharing arrangements.

Centrifuges help match supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crossley, P.S.

1980-01-01

Since the early 1970's the enrichment market situation has changed dramatically. Falling demands and increasing production capacity has resulted in over-capacity and stockpiles of enriched uranium. New trends in the industry are considered by analysing the following issues: supply and demand; technical development; build-up plans; contracting policies; enrichment economics; and nuclear safeguards. (U.K.)

Further examination of the temporal stability of alcohol demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Acuff, Samuel F; Murphy, James G

2017-08-01

Demand, or the amount of a substance consumed as a function of price, is a central dependent measure in behavioral economic research and represents the relative valuation of a substance. Although demand is often utilized as an index of substance use severity and is assumed to be relatively stable, recent experimental and clinical research has identified conditions in which demand can be manipulated, such as through craving and stress inductions, and treatment. Our study examines the 1-month reliability of the alcohol purchase task in a sample of heavy drinking college students. We also analyzed reliability in subgroup of individuals whose consumption decreased, increased, or stayed the same over the 1-month period, and in individuals with moderate/severe Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) vs. those with no/mild AUD. Reliability was moderate in the full sample, high in the group with stable consumption, and did not differ appreciably between AUD groups. Observed indices and indices derived from an exponentiated equation (Koffarnus et al., 2015) were generally comparable, although P max observed had very low reliability. Area under the curve, O max derived, and essential value showed the greatest reliability in the full sample (rs=0.75-0.77). These results provide evidence for the relative stability over time of demand and across AUD groups, particularly in those whose consumption remains stable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing economic tradeoffs in forest management.

Science.gov (United States)

Ernie Niemi; Ed. Whitelaw

1999-01-01

Method is described for assessing the competing demands for forest resources in a forest management plan by addressing economics values, economic impacts, and perceptions of fairness around each demand. Economics trends and forces that shape the dynamic ecosystem-economy relation are developed. The method is demonstrated through an illustrative analysis of a forest-...

The relationship between parenting and the economic orientation and behavior of Norwegian adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Nyhus, Ellen K; Webley, Paul

2013-01-01

Little is known about the economic socialization of children and adolescents and the role of parents in this process. The authors' purpose was to explore the role of parenting in the intergenerational transfer of economic orientation and economic behavior. More specifically, they studied the link between four parenting dimensions (parental warmth-responsiveness, behavioral control, psychological control, autonomy granting), three parenting styles (authoritative, authoritarian, and neglectful) and adolescents' conscientiousness, future time perspective, and present hedonistic orientation. The authors also studied the relationships between these dispositions and the adolescents' spending preferences and ability to control spending. They used data collected from 14-16-year-olds (n = 597) and their parents (n = 469) in Norway. Results showed that adolescents who perceived their parents as psychologically controlling were less future oriented and conscientious, and were more present hedonistic oriented than others, while adolescents who perceived their parents as responsive, autonomy granting, and controlling of behavior were more future orientated and conscientious than others. Adolescents' scores for conscientiousness and future orientation were negatively associated with preferences for spending and positively with the ability to control spending, while the opposite relationships were found with respect to a present hedonistic orientation. Parental style was also found to be important for the future educational plans of adolescents, and plans for higher education were more frequent among adolescents who characterized their parents as authoritative than among those who perceived their parents as neglectful. Implications of the findings for economic socialization are discussed.

The Icelandic economic collapse, smoking, and the role of labor-market changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ólafsdóttir, Thorhildur; Hrafnkelsson, Birgir; Ásgeirsdóttir, Tinna Laufey

2015-05-01

Smoking is related to health deterioration through increased risk of various diseases. Changes in this health behavior could contribute to the documented health improvements during economic downturns. Furthermore, the reasons for changes in behavior are not well understood. We explore smoking behavior in Iceland before and after the sudden and unexpected economic crisis in 2008. Furthermore, to explore the mechanisms through which smoking could be affected we focus on the role of labor-market changes. Both real income and working hours fell significantly and economic theory suggests that such changes can affect health behaviors which in turn affect health. We use individual longitudinal data from 2007 to 2009, incidentally before and after the crisis hit. The data originates from a postal survey, collected by The Public Health Institute in Iceland. Two outcomes are explored: smoking participation and smoking intensity, using pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) and linear probability models. The detected reduction in both outcomes is not explained by the changes in labor-market variables. Other factors in the demand function for tobacco play a more important role. The most notable are real prices which increased in particular for imported goods because of the devaluation of the Icelandic currency as a result of the economic collapse.

Electricity demand in Kazakhstan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atakhanova, Zauresh; Howie, Peter

2007-01-01

Properties of electricity demand in transition economies have not been sufficiently well researched mostly due to data limitations. However, information on the properties of electricity demand is necessary for policy makers to evaluate effects of price changes on different consumers and obtain demand forecasts for capacity planning. This study estimates Kazakhstan's aggregate demand for electricity as well as electricity demand in the industrial, service, and residential sectors using regional data. Firstly, our results show that price elasticity of demand in all sectors is low. This fact suggests that there is considerable room for price increases necessary to finance generation and distribution system upgrading. Secondly, we find that income elasticity of demand in the aggregate and all sectoral models is less than unity. Of the three sectors, electricity demand in the residential sector has the lowest income elasticity. This result indicates that policy initiatives to secure affordability of electricity consumption to lower income residential consumers may be required. Finally, our forecast shows that electricity demand may grow at either 3% or 5% per year depending on rates of economic growth and government policy regarding price increases and promotion of efficiency. We find that planned supply increases would be sufficient to cover growing demand only if real electricity prices start to increase toward long-run cost-recovery levels and policy measures are implemented to maintain the current high growth of electricity efficiency

Cointegration and the demand for gasoline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhaskara Rao, B.; Rao, Gyaneshwar

2009-01-01

Since the early 1970s, there has been a worldwide upsurge in the price of energy and in particular of gasoline. Therefore, demand functions for energy and its components like gasoline have received much attention. However, since confidence in the estimated demand functions is important for use in policy and forecasting, following [Amarawickrama, H.A., Hunt, L.C., 2008. Electricity demand for Sri Lanka: A time series analysis. Energy Economics 33, 724-739], this paper estimates the demand for gasoline is estimated with five alternative time series techniques with data from Fiji. Estimates with these alternative techniques are very close, and thus increase our confidence in them. We found that gasoline demand is both price and income inelastic.

Cointegration and the demand for gasoline

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bhaskara Rao, B. [University of Western Sydney, Sydney1797 (Australia); Rao, Gyaneshwar [University of the South Pacific (Fiji)

2009-10-15

Since the early 1970s, there has been a worldwide upsurge in the price of energy and in particular of gasoline. Therefore, demand functions for energy and its components like gasoline have received much attention. However, since confidence in the estimated demand functions is important for use in policy and forecasting, following [Amarawickrama, H.A., Hunt, L.C., 2008. Electricity demand for Sri Lanka: A time series analysis. Energy Economics 33, 724-739], this paper estimates the demand for gasoline is estimated with five alternative time series techniques with data from Fiji. Estimates with these alternative techniques are very close, and thus increase our confidence in them. We found that gasoline demand is both price and income inelastic. (author)

Optimal behavior of responsive residential demand considering hybrid phase change materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shafie-khah, M.; Kheradmand, M.; Javadi, S.; Azenha, M.; Aguiar, J.L.B. de; Castro-Gomes, J.; Siano, P.; Catalão, J.P.S.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • An operational model of HEM system incorporating with a hybrid PCM is proposed in this paper. • Incorporation of hybrid PCM mortar had a complementary effect on the proposed HEM system. • The proposed model ensures the technical and economic limits of batteries and electrical appliances. • The customer’s electricity cost can be reduced up to 48% by utilizing the proposed model. - Abstract: Due to communication and technology developments, residential consumers are enabled to participate in Demand Response Programs (DRPs), control their consumption and decrease their cost by using Household Energy Management (HEM) systems. On the other hand, capability of energy storage systems to improve the energy efficiency causes that employing Phase Change Materials (PCM) as thermal storage systems to be widely addressed in the building applications. In this paper, an operational model of HEM system considering the incorporation of more than one type of PCM in plastering mortars (hybrid PCM) is proposed not only to minimize the customer’s cost in different DRPs but also to guaranty the habitants’ satisfaction. Moreover, the proposed model ensures the technical and economic limits of batteries and electrical appliances. Different case studies indicate that implementation of hybrid PCM in the buildings can meaningfully affect the operational pattern of HEM systems in different DRPs. The results reveal that the customer’s electricity cost can be reduced up to 48% by utilizing the proposed model.

The impact of consumer behavior on residential energy demand for space heating

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haas, R.; Auer, H.; Biermayr, P. [Vienna Univ. of Technology (Austria). Inst. of Energy Economics

1998-04-01

Besides technical parameters, consumer behavior is the most important issue with respect to energy consumption in households. In this paper, the results of a cross-section analysis of Austrian households are presented. The impact of the following parameters on residential energy demand for space heating have been investigated: (i) thermal quality of buildings; (ii) consumer behavior; (iii) heating degree days; (iv) building type (single- or multi-family dwellings). The result of this investigation provides evidence of a rebound-effect of about 15 to 30% due to building retrofit. This leads to the conclusion that energy savings achieved in practice (and straightforward the reduction in CO{sub 2} emissions) due to energy conservation measures will be lower than those calculated in engineering conservation studies. Straightforward, the most important conclusions for energy policy makers are: (i) Standards, building codes, respectively, are important tools to increase the thermal quality of new buildings; and (ii) Due to prevailing low energy prices, a triggering tool has to be implemented which may be rebates or loans. (orig.)

Pit Latrine Emptying Behavior and Demand for Sanitation Services in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marion W. Jenkins

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Pit latrines are the main form of sanitation in unplanned areas in many rapidly growing developing cities. Understanding demand for pit latrine fecal sludge management (FSM services in these communities is important for designing demand-responsive sanitation services and policies to improve public health. We examine latrine emptying knowledge, attitudes, behavior, trends and rates of safe/unsafe emptying, and measure demand for a new hygienic latrine emptying service in unplanned communities in Dar Es Salaam (Dar, Tanzania, using data from a cross-sectional survey at 662 residential properties in 35 unplanned sub-wards across Dar, where 97% had pit latrines. A picture emerges of expensive and poor FSM service options for latrine owners, resulting in widespread fecal sludge exposure that is likely to increase unless addressed. Households delay emptying as long as possible, use full pits beyond what is safe, face high costs even for unhygienic emptying, and resort to unsafe practices like ‘flooding out’. We measured strong interest in and willingness to pay (WTP for the new pit emptying service at 96% of residences; 57% were WTP ≥U.S. $17 to remove ≥200 L of sludge. Emerging policy recommendations for safe FSM in unplanned urban communities in Dar and elsewhere are discussed.

The economical efficiency of private investments in higher education in Russia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Maksyutina

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The article investigates the economical efficiency of investments in higher education in modern conditions of Russia. The beginning of the article includes a characteristic of the existing empiric research concerning the efficiency of investments in human capital assets. Further the author of the article introduces the results of pay off calculation of private investments in higher education. The result of the research was that in modern conditions of Russia investments in higher education are exceedingly advantageous. High norms of higher education feedback and short period of pay off of these investments explain the reasons of continuously growing demand for it on the part of the population, especially young people. The article proves that the level of population education in Russia is quite high, however accumulated human capital asset is used insufficiently effective. Many people with higher education are forced to take jobs not requiring higher education.  Sharp shift in educational behavior of Russian people raises new demands to labor market. Graduates of higher educational institutions, appearing on a labor market, form qualitatively different demands towards it. But tempo of Russian economics development today can not provide job positions for all graduates of higher educational institutions. That is why structural change of economics is needed.

Consumer Demand for Major Foods in Egypt

OpenAIRE

Basem Fayaad; Stanley R. Johnson; Mohamed El-Khishin

1995-01-01

This study provides information on the structure of the consumer demand for major foods in Egypt. The information is in the form of key parameters for consumer demand systems. The modern theory of consumer behavior is the basis for estimating systems of demand equations. These systems yield estimates of own- and cross-price elasticities. The Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LAIDS) model is applied in estimating a system of demand equations for food commodities. A full demand matrix results ...

International symposium on uranium production and raw materials for the nuclear fuel cycle - Supply and demand, economics, the environment and energy security. Extended synopses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2005-07-01

The IAEA periodically organizes nical meetings and international symposia on all areas of the uranium production cycle. This publication contains 160 extended synopses related to the 2005 international symposium on 'Uranium Production and Raw Materials for the Nuclear Fuel Cycle - Supply and Demand, Economics, the Environment and Energy Security'. They cover all areas of natural uranium resources and production cycle including uranium supply and demand; uranium geology and deposit; uranium exploration; uranium mining and milling; waste management; and environment and regulation. Each synopsis was indexed individually.

Electrical network capacity support from demand side response: Techno-economic assessment of potential business cases for small commercial and residential end-users

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martínez Ceseña, Eduardo A.; Good, Nicholas; Mancarella, Pierluigi

2015-01-01

Demand Side Response (DSR) is recognised for its potential to bring economic benefits to various electricity sector actors, such as energy retailers, Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and Distribution Network Operators (DNOs). However, most DSR is provided by large industrial and commercial consumers, and little research has been directed to the quantification of the value that small (below 100 kW) commercial and residential end-users could accrue by providing DSR services. In particular, suitable models and studies are needed to quantify potential business cases for DSR from small commercial and residential end-users. Such models and studies should consider the technical and physical characteristics of the power system and demand resources, together with the economic conditions of the power market. In addition, the majority of research focuses on provision of energy arbitrage or ancillary services, with very little attention to DSR services for network capacity support. Accordingly, this paper presents comprehensive techno-economic methodologies for the quantification of three capacity-based business cases for DSR from small commercial and residential end-users. Case study results applied to a UK context indicate that, if the appropriate regulatory framework is put in place, services for capacity support to both DNOs and TSOs can result into potentially attractive business cases for DSR from small end-users with minimum impact on their comfort level. -- Highlights: •We present three business cases for DSR from domestic and commercial end-users. •A comprehensive techno-economic methodology is proposed for the quantification of each DSR business cases. •The regulatory implications associated with each business case are discussed

The neuroeconomics of alcohol demand: an initial investigation of the neural correlates of alcohol cost-benefit decision making in heavy drinking men.

Science.gov (United States)

MacKillop, James; Amlung, Michael T; Acker, John; Gray, Joshua C; Brown, Courtney L; Murphy, James G; Ray, Lara A; Sweet, Lawrence H

2014-07-01

Neuroeconomics integrates concepts and methods from psychology, economics, and cognitive neuroscience to understand how the brain makes decisions. In economics, demand refers to the relationship between a commodity's consumption and its cost, and, in behavioral studies, high alcohol demand has been consistently associated with greater alcohol misuse. Relatively little is known about how the brain processes demand decision making, and the current study is an initial investigation of the neural correlates of alcohol demand among heavy drinkers. Using an event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) paradigm, participants (N=24) selected how much they would drink under varying levels of price. These choices determined access to alcohol during a subsequent bar laboratory self-administration period. During decisions to drink in general, greater activity was present in multiple distinct subunits of the prefrontal and parietal cortices. In contrast, during decisions to drink that were demonstrably affected by the cost of alcohol, significantly greater activation was evident in frontostriatal regions, suggesting an active interplay between cognitive deliberation and subjective reward value. These choices were also characterized by significant deactivation in default mode network regions, suggesting suppression resulting from greater cognitive load. Across choice types, the anterior insula was notably recruited in diverse roles, further implicating the importance of interoceptive processing in decision-making behavior. These findings reveal the neural signatures subserving alcohol cost-benefit decision making, providing a foundation for future clinical applications of this paradigm and extending this approach to understanding the neural correlates of demand for other addictive commodities.

Impact of the economic downturn on total joint replacement demand in the United States: updated projections to 2021.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurtz, Steven M; Ong, Kevin L; Lau, Edmund; Bozic, Kevin J

2014-04-16

Few studies have explored the role of the National Health Expenditure and macroeconomics on the utilization of total joint replacement. The economic downturn has raised questions about the sustainability of growth for total joint replacement in the future. Previous projections of total joint replacement demand in the United States were based on data up to 2003 using a statistical methodology that neglected macroeconomic factors, such as the National Health Expenditure. Data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (1993 to 2010) were used with United States Census and National Health Expenditure data to quantify historical trends in total joint replacement rates, including the two economic downturns in the 2000s. Primary and revision hip and knee arthroplasty were identified using codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification. Projections in total joint replacement were estimated using a regression model incorporating the growth in population and rate of arthroplasties from 1993 to 2010 as a function of age, sex, race, and census region using the National Health Expenditure as the independent variable. The regression model was used in conjunction with government projections of National Health Expenditure from 2011 to 2021 to estimate future arthroplasty rates in subpopulations of the United States and to derive national estimates. The growth trend for the incidence of joint arthroplasty, for the overall United States population as well as for the United States workforce, was insensitive to economic downturns. From 2009 to 2010, the total number of procedures increased by 6.0% for primary total hip arthroplasty, 6.1% for primary total knee arthroplasty, 10.8% for revision total hip arthroplasty, and 13.5% for revision total knee arthroplasty. The National Health Expenditure model projections for primary hip replacement in 2020 were higher than a previously projected model, whereas the current model estimates for total

Are Financial Incentives for Lifestyle Behavior Change Informed or Inspired by Behavioral Economics? A Mapping Review.

Science.gov (United States)

McGill, Bronwyn; O'Hara, Blythe J; Bauman, Adrian; Grunseit, Anne C; Phongsavan, Philayrath

2018-01-01

To identify the behavioral economics (BE) conceptual underpinnings of lifestyle financial incentive (FI) interventions. A mapping review of peer-reviewed literature was conducted by searching electronic databases. Inclusion criteria were real-world FI interventions explicitly mentioning BE, targeting individuals, or populations with lifestyle-related behavioral outcomes. Exclusion criteria were hypothetical studies, health professional focus, clinically oriented interventions. Study characteristics were tabulated according to purpose, categorization of BE concepts and FI types, design, outcome measures, study quality, and findings. Data Synthesis and Analysis: Financial incentives were categorized according to type and payment structure. Behavioral economics concepts explicitly used in the intervention design were grouped based on common patterns of thinking. The interplay between FI types, BE concepts, and outcome was assessed. Seventeen studies were identified from 1452 unique records. Analysis showed 76.5% (n = 13) of studies explicitly incorporated BE concepts. Six studies provided clear theoretical justification for the inclusion of BE. No pattern in the type of FI and BE concepts used was apparent. Not all FI interventions claiming BE inclusion did so. For interventions that explicitly included BE, the degree to which this was portrayed and woven into the design varied. This review identified BE concepts common to FI interventions, a first step in providing emergent and pragmatic information to public health and health promotion program planners.

Effect of human behavior on economizer efficacy and thermal comfort in southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Lanning, TIghe Glennon

California has set a zero net-energy conservation goal for the residential sector that is to be achieved by 2020 (California Energy Commission 2011). To reduce energy consumption in the building sector, modern buildings should fundamentally incorporate sustainable performance standards, involving renewable systems, climate-specific strategies, and consideration of a variety of users. Building occupants must operate in concert with the buildings they inhabit in order to maximize the potential of the building, its systems, and their own comfort. In climates with significant diurnal temperature swings, environmental controls designed to capitalize on this should be considered to reduce cooling-related loads. One specific strategy is the air-side economizer, which uses daily outdoor temperature swings to reduce indoor temperature swings. Traditionally a similar effect could be achieved by using thermal mass to buffer indoor temperature swings through thermal lag. Economizers reduce the amount of thermal mass typically required by naturally ventilated buildings. Fans are used to force cool nighttime air deep into the building, allowing lower mass buildings to take advantage of nighttime cooling. Economizers connect to a thermostat, and when the outdoor temperature dips below a programmed set-point the economizer draws cool air from outside, flushing out the warmed interior air. This type of system can be simulated with reasonable accuracy by energy modeling programs; however, because the system is occupant-driven (as opposed to a truly passive mass-driven system) any unpredictable occupant behavior can reduce its effectiveness and create misleading simulation results. This unpredictably has helped prevent the spread of economizers in the residential market. This study investigated to what extent human behavior affected the performance of economizer-based HVAC systems, based on physical observations, environmental data collections, and energy simulations of a residential

The energy demand in the Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stoffers, M.J.

1992-01-01

Based on three scenarios for the global and economic developments the CPB (Dutch Central Planning Bureau) made projections of the Dutch energy demand to the year 2015. Factors of interest are the development of the energy prices, sectoral analysis of the economic growth and the government policy. The scenarios are Balanced Growth, characterized by a strong economic growth, sustainable economic development, and a dynamic technological development, the Global Shift scenario, characterized by a very dynamic technological development, and the European Renaissance scenario with a less dynamic development. 2 ills., 5 tabs., 2 refs

Research on electricity market operation mechanism and its benefit of demand side participation

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Shuai; Yan, Xu; Qin, Li-juan; Lin, Xi-qiao; Zeng, Bo

2017-08-01

Demand response plays an important role in maintaining the economic stability of the system, and has the characteristics of high efficiency, low cost, fast response, good environmental benefits and so on. Demand side resource is an important part of electricity market. The research of demand side resources in our country is still in the initial stage, but the opening of the electricity sales side provides a broad prospect for the development of electricity market. This paper summarizes the main types of demand side resources in our country, analyzes the economic principle of demand response from the micro perspective, puts forward some suggestions on the operation mechanism of China’s demand side resources participating in the electricity market under the condition of electricity sales side opening, analyzes the current situation of pricing in the electricity wholesale market and sets up the pricing strategy of the centralized wholesale market with the demand side power supply participating in quotation, which makes the social and economic benefits reach the maximum.

Endogenous Money Supply and Money Demand

OpenAIRE

Woon Gyu Choi; Seonghwan Oh

2000-01-01

This paper explores the behavior of money demand by explicitly accounting for the money supply endogeneity arising from endogenous monetary policy and financial innovations. Our theoretical analysis indicates that money supply factors matter in the money demand function when the money supply partially responds to money demand. Our empirical results with U.S. data provide strong evidence for the relevance of the policy stance to the demand for MI under a regime in which monetary policy is subs...

Economic growth to raise U.S. oil products, natural gas demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, R.J.

1994-01-01

An accelerating economy will raise consumption of oil products and natural gas in the US this year. Contributing to demand growth will be the slump that began late last year in prices for crude oil and petroleum products. Some price recovery is likely in 1994, but there's little reason to expect a major increase. With oil production falling and demand rising, imports will have to climb again this year. OGJ projects a 2.6% increase this year following a 6.6% increase last year. Imports are expected to fill a record high 49.3% of US oil demand this year. The paper discusses energy and the economy, overall energy use, energy by source, the electrification trend, energy supplies, imports, refining operations, the growth of margins, and the energy demand of motor gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuels, residual fuel oils, other petroleum products, and natural gas

The economic aspect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacKerron, G.

1984-01-01

The subject is covered in sections: introduction (indicating the importance of 'back end' operations in the economics of nuclear power production); irradiated fuel transport costs in the UK (the Sizewell PWR; existing UK reactors); economic appraisal; past nuclear economics; future nuclear economics; (electricity demand; technological maturity; social and political factors; competition to nuclear power). (U.K.)

Entropy Maximization as a Basis for Information Recovery in Dynamic Economic Behavioral Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George Judge

2015-02-01

Full Text Available As a basis for information recovery in open dynamic microeconomic systems, we emphasize the connection between adaptive intelligent behavior, causal entropy maximization and self-organized equilibrium seeking behavior. This entropy-based causal adaptive behavior framework permits the use of information-theoretic methods as a solution basis for the resulting pure and stochastic inverse economic-econometric problems. We cast the information recovery problem in the form of a binary network and suggest information-theoretic methods to recover estimates of the unknown binary behavioral parameters without explicitly sampling the configuration-arrangement of the sample space.

Changes in the Singapore University Student Demand since the Currency Crash.

Science.gov (United States)

Patton, Mark Allan

1999-01-01

Details what has happened to demand for overseas university education by Singaporeans since the economic crisis of 1997. The demand has risen over the last year, but fear of future economic conditions has caused students to switch their target preferences. Most students cannot afford to enroll in higher education programs in Europe and North…

Multi-objective dynamic economic emission dispatch of electric power generation integrated with game theory based demand response programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nwulu, Nnamdi I.; Xia, Xiaohua

2015-01-01

Highlights: • In this work, a game theory based DR program is integrated into the DEED problem. • Objectives are to minimize fuel and emissions costs and maximize the DR benefit. • Optimal generator output, customer load and customer incentive are determined. • Developed model is tested with two different scenarios. • Model provides superior results than independent optimization of DR or DEED. - Abstract: The dynamic economic emission dispatch (DEED) of electric power generation is a multi-objective mathematical optimization problem with two objective functions. The first objective is to minimize all the fuel costs of the generators in the power system, whilst the second objective seeks to minimize the emissions cost. Both objective functions are subject to constraints such as load demand constraint, ramp rate constraint, amongst other constraints. In this work, we integrate a game theory based demand response program into the DEED problem. The game theory based demand response program determines the optimal hourly incentive to be offered to customers who sign up for load curtailment. The game theory model has in built mechanisms to ensure that the incentive offered the customers is greater than the cost of interruption while simultaneously being beneficial to the utility. The combined DEED and game theoretic demand response model presented in this work, minimizes fuel and emissions costs and simultaneously determines the optimal incentive and load curtailment customers have to perform for maximal power system relief. The developed model is tested on two test systems with industrial customers and obtained results indicate the practical benefits of the proposed model

Typology of consumer behavior in times of economic crisis: A segmentation study from Bulgaria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katrandjiev Hristo

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the second part of results from a survey-based market research of Bulgarian households. In the first part of the paper the author analyzes the changes of consumer behavior in times of economic crisis in Bulgaria. Here, the author presents market segmentation from the point of view of consumer behavior changes in times of economic crisis. Four segments (clusters were discovered, and profiled. The similarities/dissimilarities between clusters are presented through the technique of multidimensional scaling (MDS The research project is planned, organized and realized within the Scientific Research Program of University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria.

The behavioral economics of social anxiety disorder reveal a robust effect for interpersonal traits.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodebaugh, Thomas L; Tonge, Natasha A; Weisman, Jaclyn S; Lim, Michelle H; Fernandez, Katya C; Bogdan, Ryan

2017-08-01

Recent evidence suggests that reduced generosity among individuals with social anxiety disorder (SAD) in behavioral economic tasks may result from constraint in changing behavior according to interpersonal contingencies. That is, people with SAD may be slower to be more generous when the situation warrants. Conversely, more global effects on generosity may be related to interpersonal vindictiveness, a dimension only somewhat related to SAD. A total of 133 participants, 73 with the generalized form of SAD, completed self-report instruments and a behavioral economic task with simulated interpersonal (friend, romantic partner, stranger) interactions. In a separate visit, friends (n = 88) also came to the lab and rated participants on vindictiveness. Interpersonal vindictiveness was associated with reduced initial and overall giving to simulated friends. SAD predicted a lack of increased giving to a simulated friend, and attenuated an increase in giving to simulated known versus unknown players compared to participants without SAD. Friend-reported vindictiveness predicted in the same direction as diagnosis. However, the findings for SAD were less robust than those for vindictiveness. SAD is perhaps weakly related to behavioral constraint in economic tasks that simulate interpersonal interactions, whereas vindictiveness is strongly related to lower overall generosity as well as (via friend report) behavioral constraint. Further study is needed to better characterize the construct of vindictiveness. Our findings dovetail with the suggestion that SAD is related to impairment in the proposed affiliation and attachment system, but further suggest that direct study of that system may be more fruitful than focusing on disorders. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The CEDSS model of direct domestic energy demand

OpenAIRE

Gotts, Nicholas Mark

2014-01-01

This paper describes the design, implementation and testing of the CEDSS model of direct domestic energy demand, and the first results of its use to produce estimates of future demand under a range of scenarios. CEDSS simulates direct domestic energy demand at within communities of approximately 200 households. The scenarios explored differ in the economic conditions assumed, and policy measures adopted at national level.

Psychology of Economics in the Analysis of Consumer Behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Jonas Alves Correia

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Psychology of Economics addresses issues far beyond market research. Thus, studies in this area also observe variables such as work, unemployment, decisions about purchases and savings, investments, financing, responses to advertising, among others. The present research was carried out with the objective of analyzing, through the fundamentals of consumer behavior, its relation to the propensity for compulsive or superfluous consumption. This quantitative study relates, using as means of phenomena and variables a description of the consumers behavior through the statistical tool Propensity Score Matching of Stata software. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect the data, which was applied online from April to August in 2016. Data analysis was performed by the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS regression with controlled dummy variables (dependent variable, whether or not it belongs to the consumer group Compulsive by the set of explanatory (independent variables. The results showed that the average monthly spending of compulsive consumers increases, and the higher the income of individuals, the greater the spending on unnecessary or superfluous consumption. Considering the gender variable, male individuals have higher levels of unnecessary spending and are prone to superfluous consumption. Thus, consumption is composed of influences for purchase and that the consumer determines consumption, according to economic position (income factor and cultural factors (customs, needs, impulsivities within the society.

The Demand for Oil and Energy in Developing Countries

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Wolf, Jr., Charles; Relles, Daniel A; Navarro, Jaime

1980-01-01

...? How will world demand be affected by the economic growth of the NOLDCs? In this report, the authors try to develop some reasonable forecasts of the range of NOLDC energy demands in the next 10 years...

The pharmacist Aggregate Demand Index to explain changing pharmacist demand over a ten-year period.

Science.gov (United States)

Knapp, Katherine K; Shah, Bijal M; Barnett, Mitchell J

2010-12-15

To describe Aggregate Demand Index (ADI) trends from 1999-2010; to compare ADI time trends to concurrent data for US unemployment levels, US entry-level pharmacy graduates, and US retail prescription growth rate; and to determine which variables were significant predictors of ADI. Annual ADI data (dependent variable) were analyzed against annual unemployment rates, annual number of pharmacy graduates, and annual prescription growth rate (independent variables). ADI data trended toward lower demand levels for pharmacists since late 2006, paralleling the US economic downturn. National ADI data were most highly correlated with unemployment (p demand. Predictable increases in future graduates and other factors support revisiting the modeling process as new data accumulate.

Demand outlook : back to the 1990s or a new paradigm?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diwan, R.

2002-01-01

Economic growth in Asia will be much lower in the next five years compared to what it was in the first two thirds of the last decade. There are many structural reasons for this turn of events, but slower economic growth will play an important role on oil demand. Structural economic problems will slow demand in Asia, structurally reducing global demand growth in the next 3 to 5 years. The four trends that will impact oil supply levels include: (1) impact of new technologies, (2) impact of price cycle in mature areas, (3) solutions to geopolitical problems, and (4) increase in OPEC capacity. In the next 5 to 7 years oil demand in Asia will be lower than during the 1990 and 1997 period, when Pacific Basin demand growth averaged 5.5 per cent, or nearly 0.9 million barrels per day on an annual average. A new set of dynamics in the crude oil market will be created as a result of these changes. Prices and flows will be destabilized. The lower demand for oil in Asia will have major consequences for global demand, prices and OPEC strategy. The opening of the upstream sector in most OPEC countries will result in faster growth in production capacity. 13 figs

Evolution of Food Quality Demand in the Food Service Industry in China: The Case of Duck

OpenAIRE

Carnegie, Rachel Alison

2014-01-01

Booming economic growth and rising consumer incomes have impacted food preferences and purchasing behavior in China. At the same time, several internationally publicized food safety incidents, particularly in the animal husbandry sector, have heightened awareness of and concern for food safety and quality in meat and dairy. Rising quality demand and safety concerns have been studied at length in the food retail sector, but also appear to be important in the food service industry. This researc...

Pricing strategy for aesthetic surgery: economic analysis of a resident clinic's change in fees.

Science.gov (United States)

Krieger, L M; Shaw, W W

1999-02-01

The laws of microeconomics explain how prices affect consumer purchasing decisions and thus overall revenues and profits. These principles can easily be applied to the behavior aesthetic plastic surgery patients. The UCLA Division of Plastic Surgery resident aesthetics clinic recently offered a radical price change for its services. The effects of this change on demand for services and revenue were tracked. Economic analysis was applied to see if this price change resulted in the maximization of total revenues, or if additional price changes could further optimize them. Economic analysis of pricing involves several steps. The first step is to assess demand. The number of procedures performed by a given practice at different price levels can be plotted to create a demand curve. From this curve, price sensitivities of consumers can be calculated (price elasticity of demand). This information can then be used to determine the pricing level that creates demand for the exact number of procedures that yield optimal revenues. In economic parlance, revenues are maximized by pricing services such that elasticity is equal to 1 (the point of unit elasticity). At the UCLA resident clinic, average total fees per procedure were reduced by 40 percent. This resulted in a 250-percent increase in procedures performed for representative 4-month periods before and after the price change. Net revenues increased by 52 percent. Economic analysis showed that the price elasticity of demand before the price change was 6.2. After the price change it was 1. We conclude that the magnitude of the price change resulted in a fee schedule that yielded the highest possible revenues from the resident clinic. These results show that changes in price do affect total revenue and that the nature of these effects can be understood, predicted, and maximized using the tools of microeconomics.

Oil supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rech, O.

2004-01-01

World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)

Oil supply and demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rech, O

2004-07-01

World oil demand, driven by economic development in China, posted the highest growth rate in 20 years. In a context of geopolitical uncertainty, prices are soaring, encouraged by low inventory and the low availability of residual production capacity. Will 2004 bring a change in the oil market paradigm? (author)

Informal sector labour demand: Evidence from Zimbabwe's urban ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Siphambe H (Prof)

during the country's economic structural adjustment programme (ESAP) and the ... The study of informal labour demand is important for Zimbabwe which faces .... is assumed to be identically and independently distributed, that is, ..... The labour demand equation's low Chi-square statistic (1.91) and its probability value of.

Pillars of cooperation: Honesty-Humility, social value orientations, and economic behavior

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hilbig, B.E.; Zettler, Ingo

2009-01-01

The current work explores the predictive power of the recently proposed sixth personality dimension, Honesty-Humility, with respect to economic and cooperative behavior. It was expected that this factor should explain how decision makers allocate a valued good to themselves vs. another in the dic......The current work explores the predictive power of the recently proposed sixth personality dimension, Honesty-Humility, with respect to economic and cooperative behavior. It was expected that this factor should explain how decision makers allocate a valued good to themselves vs. another...... in the dictator and the ultimatum game. More importantly, we predicted that Honesty-Humility would explain differences between these games in which the power of the recipient to retaliate is varied. Both conjectures were corroborated in a semi-experimental study with N = 134 participants: individuals low...... in Honesty-Humility made more selfish decisions and only shifted towards a more fair allocation whenever the other was empowered to punish defection. Those high in Honesty-Humility, on the other hand, displayed a stable tendency for choosing a more fair solution - even when they could have defected without...

A behavioral economics perspective on the overjustification effect: Crowding-in and crowding-out of intrinsic motivation.

OpenAIRE

Weibel, Antoinette; Wiemann, Meike; Osterloh, Margit

2014-01-01

In the last two decades, economic motivation research has undergone a paradigm shift when it comes to the effect of incentive schemes on individual performance and motivation. Inspired by self-determination theory, a new branch in economics evolved called behavioral economics. Especially by evidencing the negative effect of “pay-for-performance” on intrinsic motivation, called the “crowding-out” or “overjustification” effect, it challenges the economic paradigm of the relative price-effect an...

Impact Analysis of Customized Feedback Interventions on Residential Electricity Load Consumption Behavior for Demand Response

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Wang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Considering the limitations of traditional energy-saving policies, a kind of energy conservation method called the Information Feedback to Residential Electricity Load Customers, which could impact the demand response capacity, has increasingly received more attention. However, most of the current feedback programs provide the same feedback information to all customers regardless of their diverse characteristics, which may reduce the energy-saving effects or even backfire. This paper attempts to investigate how different types of customers may change their behaviors under a set of customized feedback. We conducted a field survey study in Qinhuangdao (QHD, China. First, we conducted semi-structured interviews to classify four groups of customers of different energy-saving awareness, energy-saving potential, and behavioral variability. Then, 156 QHD households were surveyed using scenarios to collect feedback of different scenarios. Social science theories were used to guide the discussion on the behavior changes as a result of different feedback strategies and reveal the reasons for customers’ behaviors. Using the Chi-Square test of independence, the variables that have strong correlations with the categories of residents are extracted to provide references for residents’ classification. Finally, the practical implications and needs for future research are discussed.

Economic Thinking for Strategic Leaders

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-24

unprepared to analyze certain complex, ambiguous issues and craft informed decisions. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Behavioral Economics, Public Choice Theory ...COUNT: 7,668 PAGES: 38 KEY TERMS: Behavioral Economics, Public Choice Theory , Army Profession CLASSIFICATION: Unclassified Military senior...various economic fields, including Identity Economics, Neoclassical Economics, Behavioral Economics, and Public Choice Economics. Finally, it

Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Functional State Space Model

OpenAIRE

Nagbe , Komi; Cugliari , Jairo; Jacques , Julien

2018-01-01

In the last past years the liberalization of the electricity supply, the increase variability of electric appliances and their use, and the need to respond to the electricity demand in the real time had made electricity demand forecasting a challenge. To this challenge, many solutions are being proposed. The electricity demand involves many sources such as economic activities, household need and weather sources. All this sources make hard electricity demand forecasting. To forecast the electr...

Climate change and energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hengeveld, H.G.

1991-01-01

Climate and weather events affect energy demand in most economic sectors. Linear relationships exist between consumption and heating degree days, and peak electricity demand increases significantly during heat waves. The relative magnitudes of demand changes for a two times carbon dioxide concentration scenario are tabulated, illustrating heating degree days and cooling degree days for 5 Prairie locations. Irrigation, water management, crop seeding and harvesting and weed control are examples of climate-dependent agricultural activities involving significant energy use. The variability of summer season liquid fuel use in the agricultural sector in the Prairie provinces from 1984-1989 shows a relationship between agricultural energy use and regional climate fluctuations. 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

Modeling plug-in electric vehicle charging demand with BEAM: the framework for behavior energy autonomy mobility

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sheppard, Colin; Waraich, Rashid; Campbell, Andrew; Pozdnukov, Alexei; Gopal, Anand R.

2017-05-01

This report summarizes the BEAM modeling framework (Behavior, Energy, Mobility, and Autonomy) and its application to simulating plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) mobility, energy consumption, and spatiotemporal charging demand. BEAM is an agent-based model of PEV mobility and charging behavior designed as an extension to MATSim (the Multi-Agent Transportation Simulation model). We apply BEAM to the San Francisco Bay Area and conduct a preliminary calibration and validation of its prediction of charging load based on observed charging infrastructure utilization for the region in 2016. We then explore the impact of a variety of common modeling assumptions in the literature regarding charging infrastructure availability and driver behavior. We find that accurately reproducing observed charging patterns requires an explicit representation of spatially disaggregated charging infrastructure as well as a more nuanced model of the decision to charge that balances tradeoffs people make with regards to time, cost, convenience, and range anxiety.

The genetic and environmental foundations of political, psychological, social, and economic behaviors: a panel study of twins and families.

Science.gov (United States)

Hatemi, Peter K; Smith, Kevin; Alford, John R; Martin, Nicholas G; Hibbing, John R

2015-06-01

Here we introduce the Genetic and Environmental Foundations of Political and Economic Behaviors: A Panel Study of Twins and Families (PIs Alford, Hatemi, Hibbing, Martin, and Smith). This study was designed to explore the genetic and environmental influences on social, economic, and political behaviors and attitudes. It involves identifying the psychological mechanisms that operate on these traits, the heritability of complex economic and political traits under varying conditions, and specific genetic correlates of attitudes and behaviors. In addition to describing the study, we conduct novel analyses on the data, estimating the heritability of two traits so far unexplored in the extant literature: Machiavellianism and Baron-Cohen's Empathizing Quotient.

Behavioral economics holds potential to deliver better results for patients, insurers, and employers.

Science.gov (United States)

Loewenstein, George; Asch, David A; Volpp, Kevin G

2013-07-01

Many programs being implemented by US employers, insurers, and health care providers use incentives to encourage patients to take better care of themselves. We critically review a range of these efforts and show that many programs, although well-meaning, are unlikely to have much impact because they require information, expertise, and self-control that few patients possess. As a result, benefits are likely to accrue disproportionately to patients who already are taking adequate care of their health. We show how these programs could be made more effective through the use of insights from behavioral economics. For example, incentive programs that offer patients small and frequent payments for behavior that would benefit the patients, such as medication adherence, can be more effective than programs with incentives that are far less visible because they are folded into a paycheck or used to reduce a monthly premium. Deploying more-nuanced insights from behavioral economics can lead to policies with the potential to increase patient engagement and deliver dividends for patients and favorable cost-effectiveness ratios for insurers, employers, and other relevant commercial entities.

Economic and ecological evaluation of biogas plant configurations for a demand oriented biogas supply for flexible power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hahn, Henning

2015-01-01

The transformation of the power supply towards renewable energy (RE) sources will depend on a large scale of fluctuating RE sources, primarily of wind energy and photovoltaics. However, the variable power generation of these renewable sources will lead to an increased need of flexible power producers in order to balance differences between energy generation and consumption. Among the different types of RE sources, biogas plants have the advantage that their input biomass and the produced biogas can be stored and electricity can consequently be generated on demand. Since electricity from biogas has not been used to balance fluctuations of intermittent RE in the past, new concepts are required. These concepts should be able to meet the requirements of highly renewable electricity systems and to supply biogas according to the varying demand for long-and short-term balance power generation. In this regard, this thesis focused on the identification of biogas plant concepts for flexible power generation, as well as on ranking them regarding their economic and life cycle performance.

Economic and ecological evaluation of biogas plant configurations for a demand oriented biogas supply for flexible power generation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hahn, Henning

2015-07-01

The transformation of the power supply towards renewable energy (RE) sources will depend on a large scale of fluctuating RE sources, primarily of wind energy and photovoltaics. However, the variable power generation of these renewable sources will lead to an increased need of flexible power producers in order to balance differences between energy generation and consumption. Among the different types of RE sources, biogas plants have the advantage that their input biomass and the produced biogas can be stored and electricity can consequently be generated on demand. Since electricity from biogas has not been used to balance fluctuations of intermittent RE in the past, new concepts are required. These concepts should be able to meet the requirements of highly renewable electricity systems and to supply biogas according to the varying demand for long-and short-term balance power generation. In this regard, this thesis focused on the identification of biogas plant concepts for flexible power generation, as well as on ranking them regarding their economic and life cycle performance.

Economic theory and evidence on smoking behavior of adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Sloan, Frank A; Wang, Yang

2008-11-01

To describe: (i) three alternative conceptual frameworks used by economists to study addictive behaviors: rational, imperfectly rational and irrational addiction; (ii) empirical economic evidence on each framework and specific channels to explain adult smoking matched to the frameworks; and (iii) policy implications for each framework. A systematic review and appraisal of important theoretical and empirical economic studies on smoking. There is some empirical support for each framework. For rational and imperfectly rational addiction there is some evidence that anticipated future cigarette prices influence current cigarette consumption, and quitting costs are high for smokers. Smokers are more risk-tolerant in the financial domain than are others and tend to attach a lower value to being in good health. Findings on differences in rates of time preference by smoking status are mixed; however, short-term rates are higher than long-term rates for both smokers and non-smokers, a stylized fact consistent with hyperbolic discounting. The economic literature lends no empirical support to the view that mature adults smoke because they underestimate the probability of harm to health from smoking. In support of the irrationality framework, smokers tend to be more impulsive than others in domains not related directly to smoking, implying that they may be sensitive to cues that trigger smoking. Much promising economic research uses the imperfectly rational addiction framework, but empirical research based on this framework is still in its infancy.

THE PRICE OF HIGHER EDUCATION AND INDIVIDUAL DEMAND

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Filiz Golpek

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The rise in the living standards in most of the world, the rise in population and schooling rates have increased the demand for higher education. The attribution of semi public property becomes determinant to decide whom will provide the supply and the production in semi public properties is realized by means of a supply and demand mechanism. The supply of higher education is mostly secured in accordance with the public demand as well as the resources available.  In addition, the fact that higher education services have produced significant benefits has led to over demand. This situation relates to a simple economic rule that a commodity or service which costs almost nothing or little will increase until the mariginal benefit of its demand equals to 0 or almost 0. However, the educational supply and demand is difficult to identify in accordance to the supply and demand and balance of price as observed in the economic theory. The high profits that would be attracted in the future are significant factors influencing individual’s decisions for investment. The decision for investment depends on the possible return in the future, the cost of investment, and the current interest rates. Higher education with investment purposes is influenced by these three factors and higher education is demanded more and more by individuals on the expectation that they will gain high profits In theory, it is accepted that the basic factors identifying the demand for higher education are in harmony with empirical research results in several countries including Turkey.

Influence of India’s transformation on residential energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • The middle income group emerges as the dominant segment by 2030. • Commercial residential energy demand increases 3–4 folds compared to 2010. • Electricity and LPG demand grows above 6% per year in the reference scenario. • India faces the potential of displacing the domination of biomass by 2030. - Abstract: India’s recent macro-economic and structural changes are transforming the economy and bringing significant changes to energy demand behaviour. Life-style and consumption behaviour are evolving rapidly due to accelerated economic growth in recent times. The population structure is changing, thereby offering the country with the potential to reap the population dividend. The country is also urbanising rapidly, and the fast-growing middle class segment of the population is fuelling consumerism by mimicking international life-styles. These changes are likely to have significant implications for energy demand in the future, particularly in the residential sector. Using the end-use approach of demand analysis, this paper analyses how residential energy demand is likely to evolve as a consequence of India’s transformation and finds that by 2030, India’s commercial energy demand in the residential sector can quadruple in the high scenario compared to the demand in 2010. Demand for modern fuels like electricity and liquefied petroleum gas is likely to grow at a faster rate. However, there is a window of opportunity to better manage the evolution of residential demand in India through energy efficiency improvement

International symposium on uranium raw material for the nuclear fuel cycle: Exploration, mining, production, supply and demand, economics and environmental issues (URAM-2009). Book of abstracts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

The International Symposium on Uranium Raw Material for the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Exploration, Mining, Production, Supply and Demand, Economics and Environmental Issues (URAM-2009) addressed all aspects of the uranium fuel cycle, from the availability of raw materials to the long-term sustainability of nuclear power. The revival of the uranium industry in recent years has caused a dramatic increase in uranium exploration and mining activities in several countries. URAM-2009 was intended to bring together scientists, exploration and mining geologists, engineers, operators, regulators and fuel cycle specialists to exchange information and discuss updated research and current issues in uranium geology and deposits, exploration, mining and processing, production economics, and environmental and legal issues. Contributed papers covered uranium markets and economics (including supply and demand); social licensing in the uranium production cycle; uranium exploration (including uranium geology and deposits); uranium mining and processing; environmental and regulatory issues; human resources development. There was a poster session throughout the symposium, as well as an exhibition of topical photographs. A workshop on recent developments in Technical Cooperation Projects relevant to the Uranium Production Cycle area was also organized. On the last day of the symposium, there was an experts' Panel Discussion. The presentations and discussions at URAM-2009 (a) led to a better understanding of the adequacy of uranium sources (both primary and secondary) to meet future demand, (b) provided information on new exploration concepts, knowledge and technologies that will potentially lead to the discovery and development of new uranium resources, (c) described new production technology having the potential to more efficiently and economically exploit new uranium resources; (d) documented the environmental compatibility of uranium production and the overall effectiveness of the final

Competition with supply and demand functions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bolle, F.

2001-01-01

If economic agents have to determine in advance their supply or demand in reaction to different market prices we may assume that their strategic instruments are supply or demand functions. The best examples for such markets are the spot markets for electricity in England and Wales, in Chile, in New Zealand, in Scandinavia and perhaps elsewhere. A further example is computerized trading in stock markets, financial markets, or commodity exchanges. The functional form of equilibria is explicitly determined in this paper. Under a certain condition, equilibria exist for every finite spread of (stochastic) autonomous demand, i.e. demand from small, non-strategically acting consumers. Contrary to competition with supply functions alone, however, there is no tendency for market prices to converge to 0 if the spread of autonomous demand increases infinitely. Lower bounds of market prices can be computed instead

The energy supply and demand outlook in the Asia-Pacific region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fesharaki, F.

1993-01-01

The 1980s witnessed spectacular growth rates in the Asia-Pacific region. While the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption is not necessarily one-to-one, energy is a required input for economic activity and trade. Energy demand growth in the Asia-Pacific region has been accordingly rapid. At this point in history, oil and economic growth are so inter-related that changes in one invariably have major repercussions on the other. During the coming decade, continued economic growth is foreseen for the Asia-Pacific region, coupled with the fastest rate of oil demand growth of any region on earth. Pressure will come to bear on the regional oil and gas markets, since demand growth will take place concurrently with a decline in the availability of local, low-sulfur crudes. The region will become even more dependent on imports of Middle Eastern crude, which will result in a higher-sulfur crude slate. Moreover, we anticipate that the existing and planned refinery complexes will lack the capacity and the flexibility to fully satisfy product demand. The consequence will be a higher level of refined product imports. The paper looks in greater detail at the supply and demand situation with respect to oil and natural gas, at regional oil import dependency and refining capacity. (10 figures). (author)

Naturalistic assessment of demand for cigarettes, snus, and nicotine gum.

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, Jeffrey S; Wilson, A George; Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Judd, Michael C; Bickel, Warren K

2017-01-01

Behavioral economic measures of demand provide estimates of tobacco product abuse liability and may predict effects of policy-related price regulation on consumption of existing and emerging tobacco products. In the present study, we examined demand for snus, a smokeless tobacco product, in comparison to both cigarettes and medicinal nicotine. We used both a naturalistic method in which participants purchased these products for use outside the laboratory, as well as laboratory-based self-administration procedures. Cigarette smokers (N = 42) used an experimental income to purchase their usual brand of cigarettes and either snus or gum (only one product available per session) across a range of prices, while receiving all products they purchased from one randomly selected price. In a separate portion of the study, participants self-administered these products during laboratory-based, progressive ratio sessions. Demand elasticity (sensitivity of purchasing to price) was significantly greater for snus than cigarettes. Elasticity for gum was intermediate between snus and cigarettes but was not significantly different than either. Demand intensity (purchasing unconstrained by price) was significantly lower for gum compared to cigarettes, with no significant difference observed between snus and cigarettes. Results of the laboratory-based, progressive ratio sessions were generally discordant with measures of demand elasticity, with significantly higher "breakpoints" for cigarettes compared to gum and no significant differences between other study products. Moreover, breakpoints and product purchasing were generally uncorrelated across tasks. Under naturalistic conditions, snus appears more sensitive to price manipulation than either cigarettes or nicotine gum in existing smokers.

Uranium supply and demand, 1980-1995: a Uranium Institute analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erkes, P.; Clements, A.; Lloyd, B.; Darmayan, P.

1982-01-01

A major factor affecting the growth of the uranium market has reduced global economic growth, leading to a reduced demand for electricity and a lack of urgency regarding the need for new generating capacity. Factors influencing the demand for uranium are commitments to enrichment contracts, stockpiles and procurement policies, nuclear capacity forecasts. The present over supply, caused by the oil price rise of the early 1970's is likely to persist into the mid 1980's. Supply and demand should reach a balance in the second half of the 1980's or early 1990's. Economic incentives must be available to producers to encourage future exploration and mine development. (U.K.)

Continental integration and energy demand in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manning, D.J.

2004-01-01

This presentation highlighted some of the major issues regarding energy demand in the United States and continental integration. The energy markets in Canada and the United States are economically integrated with large cross-border investment. Therefore, the energy infrastructure can be significantly affected by inconsistencies between the two countries in policy, regulatory processes and fiscal regimes. The author discussed the inelasticity in the natural gas demand in the United States in the near-term, and how natural gas consumption, particularly for power generation, is greater than North America's supply capacity. New supplies such as liquefied natural gas and arctic gas are needed to meet growing demands. The role of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency was also discussed. It was emphasized that imbalances in supply and demand inevitably lead to price volatility and that high prices are a major obstacle to economic growth. tabs., figs

Conflict, Institutions, and Economic Behavior : Legacies of the Cambodian Genocide

OpenAIRE

KOGURE, Katsuo; TAKASAKI, Yoshito

2016-01-01

This paper examines potential long-term effects of the Cambodian genocide under the Pol Pot regime (1975-'79) on individual economic behaviors, taking into account underlying institutions. Combining spatial genocide data and census microdata, we examine effects of the genocide on subsequent parental investments in children's education of couples who had their first child during and after the Pol Pot regime. Under the state ownership of spouses and children, resulting from the complete denial ...

HOUSEHOLD FOOD DEMAND IN INDONESIA: A TWO-STAGE BUDGETING APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agus Widarjono

2016-05-01

Full Text Available A two-stage budgeting approach was applied to analyze the food demand in urban areas separated by geographical areas and classified by income groups. The demographically augmented Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS was employed to estimate the demand elasticity. Data from the National Social and Economic Survey of Households (SUSENAS in 2011 were used. The demand system is a censored model because the data contains zero expenditures and is estimated by employing the consistent two-step estimation procedure to solve biased estimation. The results show that price and income elasticities become less elastic from poor households to rich households. Demand by urban households in Java is more responsive to price but less responsive to income than urban households outside of Java. Simulation policies indicate that an increase in food prices would have more adverse impacts than a decrease in income levels. Poor families would suffer more than rich families from rising food prices and/or decreasing incomes. More importantly, urban households on Java are more vulnerable to an economic crisis, and would respond by reducing their food consumption. Economic policies to stabilize food prices are better than income policies, such as the cash transfer, to maintain the well-being of the population in Indonesia

Combining Behavioral Endocrinology and Experimental Economics: Testosterone and Social Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Behavioral endocrinological research in humans as well as in animals suggests that testosterone plays a key role in social interactions. Studies in rodents have shown a direct link between testosterone and aggressive behavior1 and folk wisdom adapts these findings to humans, suggesting that testosterone induces antisocial, egoistic or even aggressive behavior2. However, many researchers doubt a direct testosterone-aggression link in humans, arguing instead that testosterone is primarily involved in status-related behavior3,4. As a high status can also be achieved by aggressive and antisocial means it can be difficult to distinguish between anti-social and status seeking behavior. We therefore set up an experimental environment, in which status can only be achieved by prosocial means. In a double-blind and placebo-controlled experiment, we administered a single sublingual dose of 0.5 mg of testosterone (with a hydroxypropyl-β-cyclodextrin carrier) to 121 women and investigated their social interaction behavior in an economic bargaining paradigm. Real monetary incentives are at stake in this paradigm; every player A receives a certain amount of money and has to make an offer to another player B on how to share the money. If B accepts, she gets what was offered and player A keeps the rest. If B refuses the offer, nobody gets anything. A status seeking player A is expected to avoid being rejected by behaving in a prosocial way, i.e. by making higher offers. The results show that if expectations about the hormone are controlled for, testosterone administration leads to a significant increase in fair bargaining offers compared to placebo. The role of expectations is reflected in the fact that subjects who report that they believe to have received testosterone make lower offers than those who say they believe that they were treated with a placebo. These findings suggest that the experimental economics approach is sensitive for detecting neurobiological effects as subtle

A Hybrid Approach on Tourism Demand Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Nor, M. E.; Nurul, A. I. M.; Rusiman, M. S.

2018-04-01

Tourism has become one of the important industries that contributes to the country’s economy. Tourism demand forecasting gives valuable information to policy makers, decision makers and organizations related to tourism industry in order to make crucial decision and planning. However, it is challenging to produce an accurate forecast since economic data such as the tourism data is affected by social, economic and environmental factors. In this study, an equally-weighted hybrid method, which is a combination of Box-Jenkins and Artificial Neural Networks, was applied to forecast Malaysia’s tourism demand. The forecasting performance was assessed by taking the each individual method as a benchmark. The results showed that this hybrid approach outperformed the other two models

Quebec residential electricity demand: a microeconometric approach