Romanowicz, Barbara; Neuhauser, Douglas; Bogaert, Barbara; Oppenheimer, David
The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) provides easy access to central and northern California digital earthquake data. It is located at the University of California, Berkeley, and is operated jointly with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in Menlo Park, Calif., and funded by the University of California and the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program. It has been accessible to users in the scientific community through Internet since mid-1992.The data center provides an on-line archive for parametric and waveform data from two regional networks: the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN) operated by the USGS and the Berkeley Digital Seismic Network (BDSN) operated by the Seismographic Station at the University of California, Berkeley.
A magnitude 4.7 earthquake occurred near Parkfield, California, on October 20, 992, at 05:28 UTC (October 19 at 10:28 p.m. local or Pacific Daylight Time).This moderate shock, interpreted as the potential foreshock of a damaging earthquake on the San Andreas fault, triggered long-standing federal, state and local government plans to issue a public warning of an imminent magnitude 6 earthquake near Parkfield. Although the predicted earthquake did not take place, sophisticated suites of instruments deployed as part of the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment recorded valuable data associated with an unusual series of events. this article describes the geological aspects of these events, which occurred near Parkfield in October 1992. The accompnaying article, an edited version of a press conference b Richard Andrews, the Director of the California Office of Emergency Service (OES), describes governmental response to the prediction.
Jordan, T. H.; Henyey, T.; McRaney, J. K.
Kei Aki was the founding director of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), a multi-institutional collaboration formed in 1991 as a Science and Technology Center (STC) under the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). Aki and his colleagues articulated a system-level vision for the Center: investigations by disciplinary working groups would be woven together into a "Master Model" for Southern California. In this presentation, we will outline how the Master-Model concept has evolved and how SCEC's structure has adapted to meet scientific challenges of system-level earthquake science. In its first decade, SCEC conducted two regional imaging experiments (LARSE I & II); published the "Phase-N" reports on (1) the Landers earthquake, (2) a new earthquake rupture forecast for Southern California, and (3) new models for seismic attenuation and site effects; it developed two prototype "Community Models" (the Crustal Motion Map and Community Velocity Model) and, perhaps most important, sustained a long-term, multi-institutional, interdisciplinary collaboration. The latter fostered pioneering numerical simulations of earthquake ruptures, fault interactions, and wave propagation. These accomplishments provided the impetus for a successful proposal in 2000 to reestablish SCEC as a "stand alone" center under NSF/USGS auspices. SCEC remains consistent with the founders' vision: it continues to advance seismic hazard analysis through a system-level synthesis that is based on community models and an ever expanding array of information technology. SCEC now represents a fully articulated "collaboratory" for earthquake science, and many of its features are extensible to other active-fault systems and other system-level collaborations. We will discuss the implications of the SCEC experience for EarthScope, the USGS's program in seismic hazard analysis, NSF's nascent Cyberinfrastructure Initiative, and other large collaboratory programs.
Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Calzia, James P.; Walter, Stephen R.
The map depicts both active and inactive faults and earthquakes magnitude 1.5 to 7.3 in southern California (1970–2010). The bathymetry was generated from digital files from the California Department of Fish And Game, Marine Region, Coastal Bathymetry Project. Elevation data are from the U.S. Geological Survey National Elevation Database. Landsat satellite image is from fourteen Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper scenes collected between 2009 and 2010. Fault data are reproduced with permission from 2006 California Geological Survey and U.S. Geological Survey data. The earthquake data are from the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center.
Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L; Holliday, James R; Sachs, Michael K; Rundle, John B; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F
The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M ≥ 4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most "successful" in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts.
Bakun, William H.
Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) data for recent California earthquakes were used by Bakun and Wentworth (1997) to develop a strategy for bounding the location and moment magnitude M of earthquakes from MMI observations only. Bakun (Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., submitted) used the Bakun and Wentworth (1997) strategy to analyze 19th century and early 20th century San Francisco Bay Region earthquakes. The MMI data and site corrections used in these studies are listed in this Open-file Report.
Evaluation of the capacity of a bridge to carry self-weight and traffic loads after an earthquake is essential for a : safe and timely re-opening of the bridge. In California, modern highway bridges designed using the Caltrans : Seismic Design Criter...
Pitt, A. M.; Dawson, P. B.; Shelly, D. R.; Hill, D. P.; Mangan, M.
The newly established USGS California Volcano Observatory has the broad responsibility of monitoring and assessing hazards at California's potentially threatening volcanoes, most notably Mount Shasta, Medicine Lake, Clear Lake Volcanic Field, and Lassen Volcanic Center in northern California; and Long Valley Caldera, Mammoth Mountain, and Mono-Inyo Craters in east-central California. Volcanic eruptions occur in California about as frequently as the largest San Andreas Fault Zone earthquakes-more than ten eruptions have occurred in the last 1,000 years, most recently at Lassen Peak (1666 C.E. and 1914-1917 C.E.) and Mono-Inyo Craters (c. 1700 C.E.). The Long Valley region (Long Valley caldera and Mammoth Mountain) underwent several episodes of heightened unrest over the last three decades, including intense swarms of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes, rapid caldera uplift, and hazardous CO2 emissions. Both Medicine Lake and Lassen are subsiding at appreciable rates, and along with Clear Lake, Long Valley Caldera, and Mammoth Mountain, sporadically experience long period (LP) earthquakes related to migration of magmatic or hydrothermal fluids. Worldwide, the last two decades have shown the importance of tracking LP earthquakes beneath young volcanic systems, as they often provide indication of impending unrest or eruption. Herein we document the occurrence of LP earthquakes at several of California's young volcanoes, updating a previous study published in Pitt et al., 2002, SRL. All events were detected and located using data from stations within the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN). Event detection was spatially and temporally uneven across the NCSN in the 1980s and 1990s, but additional stations, adoption of the Earthworm processing system, and heightened vigilance by seismologists have improved the catalog over the last decade. LP earthquakes are now relatively well-recorded under Lassen (~150 events since 2000), Clear Lake (~60 events), Mammoth Mountain
Shearer, Peter M.; Prieto, Germán A.; Hauksson, Egill
We compute and analyze P wave spectra from earthquakes in southern California between 1989 and 2001 using a method that isolates source-, receiver-, and path-dependent terms. We correct observed source spectra for attenuation using both fixed and spatially varying empirical Green's function methods. Estimated Brune-type stress drops for over 60,000 M_L = 1.5 to 3.1 earthquakes range from 0.2 to 20 MPa with no dependence on moment or local b value. Median computed stress drop increases with de...
Even in its short recorded history, California has experienced a number of damaging earthquakes that have resulted in new codes and other legislation for public safety. In particular, the 1971 San Fernando earthquake produced some of the most lasting results such as the Hospital Safety Act, the Strong Motion Instrumentation Program, the Alquist-Priolo Special Studies Zone Act, and the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans') fault-based deterministic seismic hazard (DSH) map. The latter product provides values for earthquake ground motions based on Maximum Credible Earthquakes (MCEs), defined as the largest earthquakes that can reasonably be expected on faults in the current tectonic regime. For surface fault rupture displacement hazards, detailed study of the same faults apply. Originally, hospital, dam, and other critical facilities used seismic design criteria based on deterministic seismic hazard analyses (DSHA). However, probabilistic methods grew and took hold by introducing earthquake design criteria based on time factors and quantifying "uncertainties", by procedures such as logic trees. These probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) ignored the DSH approach. Some agencies were influenced to adopt only the PSHA method. However, deficiencies in the PSHA method are becoming recognized, and the use of the method is now becoming a focus of strong debate. Caltrans is in the process of producing the fourth edition of its DSH map. The reason for preferring the DSH method is that Caltrans believes it is more realistic than the probabilistic method for assessing earthquake hazards that may affect critical facilities, and is the best available method for insuring public safety. Its time-invariant values help to produce robust design criteria that are soundly based on physical evidence. And it is the method for which there is the least opportunity for unwelcome surprises.
Corwin, R.F.; Morrison, H.G.
Two earthquakes in central California were preceded by anomalous variations in the horizontal electric field (self-potential) of the earth. The first variation was an anomaly of 90 mV amplitude across electrode dipoles of 630 and 640 m, which began 55 days before an earthquake of M=5, located 37 km NW of the dipoles. The second variation had an amplitude of 4 mV across a 300 m dipole, and began 110 hours before an event of M=2.4 located on the San Andreas fault, 2.5 km from the dipole. Streaming potentials generated by the flow of groundwater into a dilatant zone are proposed as a possible mechanism for the observed variations
Meltzner, A.J.; Wald, D.J.
The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults anywhere in the world, yet we know little about many aspects of its behavior before, during, and after large earthquakes. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest foreshocks and aftershocks of the 1857 M 7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake on the central and southern segments of the fault. We began by searching archived first-hand accounts from 1857 through 1862, by grouping felt reports temporally, and by assigning modified Mercalli intensities to each site. We then used a modified form of the grid-search algorithm of Bakum and Wentworth, derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes, to find the location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities for each of the largest events. The result confirms a conclusion of Sieh that at least two foreshocks ('dawn' and 'sunrise') located on or near the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault preceded the mainshock. We estimate their magnitudes to be M ~ 6.1 and M ~ 5.6, respectively. The aftershock rate was below average but within one standard deviation of the number of aftershocks expected based on statistics of modern southern California mainshock-aftershock sequences. The aftershocks included two significant events during the first eight days of the sequence, with magnitudes M ~ 6.25 and M ~ 6.7, near the southern half of the rupture; later aftershocks included a M ~ 6 event near San Bernardino in December 1858 and a M ~ 6.3 event near the Parkfield segment in April 1860. From earthquake logs at Fort Tejon, we conclude that the aftershock sequence lasted a minimum of 3.75 years.
Meltzner, A.J.; Wald, D.J.
The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults in the world, yet little is known about the aftershocks following the most recent great event on the San Andreas, the Mw 7.8 San Francisco earthquake on 18 April 1906. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest aftershocks and triggered events of this earthquake. We examined existing catalogs and historical documents for the period April 1906 to December 1907, compiling data on the first 20 months of the aftershock sequence. We grouped felt reports temporally and assigned modified Mercalli intensities for the larger events based on the descriptions judged to be the most reliable. For onshore and near-shore events, a grid-search algorithm (derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes) was used to find the epicentral location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities. For one event identified as far offshore, the event's intensity distribution was compared with those of modern events, in order to contrain the event's location and magnitude. The largest aftershock within the study period, an M ???6.7 event, occurred ???100 km west of Eureka on 23 April 1906. Although not within our study period, another M ???6.7 aftershock occurred near Cape Mendocino on 28 October 1909. Other significant aftershocks included an M ???5.6 event near San Juan Bautista on 17 May 1906 and an M ???6.3 event near Shelter Cove on 11 August 1907. An M ???4.9 aftershock occurred on the creeping segment of the San Andreas fault (southeast of the mainshock rupture) on 6 July 1906. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake also triggered events in southern California (including separate events in or near the Imperial Valley, the Pomona Valley, and Santa Monica Bay), in western Nevada, in southern central Oregon, and in western Arizona, all within 2 days of the mainshock. Of these trigerred events, the largest were an M ???6.1 earthquake near Brawley
Field, Edward H.; ,
With innovations, fresh data, and lessons learned from recent earthquakes, scientists have developed a new earthquake forecast model for California, a region under constant threat from potentially damaging events. The new model, referred to as the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or "UCERF" (http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3), provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and likelihood of earthquake fault rupture throughout the state. Overall the results confirm previous findings, but with some significant changes because of model improvements. For example, compared to the previous forecast (Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2), the likelihood of moderate-sized earthquakes (magnitude 6.5 to 7.5) is lower, whereas that of larger events is higher. This is because of the inclusion of multifault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously. The public-safety implications of this and other model improvements depend on several factors, including site location and type of structure (for example, family dwelling compared to a long-span bridge). Building codes, earthquake insurance products, emergency plans, and other risk-mitigation efforts will be updated accordingly. This model also serves as a reminder that damaging earthquakes are inevitable for California. Fortunately, there are many simple steps residents can take to protect lives and property.
Fujita, Takafumi; Fujita, Satoshi; Suzuki, Shigenobu; Yoshizawa, Toshikazu.
Rubber bearings of 980 kN rated load were tested to investigate the characteristics of restoring forces of full scale bearings for earthquake isolation of buildings. These bearings comprising 27 natural rubber sheets of 6 mm thickness and 600 mm diameter bonded to steel plates were designed to provide a 100000 kg rated mass with a horizontal natural frequency of 0.51 Hz and a vertical one of 21 Hz and to accept a horizontal displacement larger than 300 mm. The static tests were carried out with satisfactory results. It was confirmed that the performance of the bearing met the specifications well. Furthermore, the vertical load distributions across the top plane of the bearing under various horizontal displacements were measured, and showed that they were always concentrated in the overlapping area of the top and bottom planes. This verified that the rubber bearing substantially supported the vertical load by the overlapping area. (author)
Spagnuolo, Elena; Plümper, Oliver; Violay, Marie; Cavallo, Andrea; Di Toro, Giulio
Rupture fronts can cause fault displacement, reaching speeds up to several ms-1 within a few milliseconds, at any distance away from the earthquake nucleation area. In the case of silicate-bearing rocks the abrupt slip acceleration results in melting at asperity contacts causing a large reduction in
Jones, L.; Cox, D.; Perry, S.; Hudnut, K.; Benthien, M.; Bwarie, J.; Vinci, M.; Buchanan, M.; Long, K.; Sinha, S.; Collins, L.
Earthquake science is being communicated to and used by the 22 million residents of southern California to improve resiliency to future earthquakes through the Great Southern California ShakeOut. The ShakeOut began when the USGS partnered with the California Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center and many other organizations to bring 300 scientists and engineers together to formulate a comprehensive description of a plausible major earthquake, released in May 2008, as the ShakeOut Scenario, a description of the impacts and consequences of a M7.8 earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault (USGS OFR2008-1150). The Great Southern California ShakeOut was a week of special events featuring the largest earthquake drill in United States history. The ShakeOut drill occurred in houses, businesses, and public spaces throughout southern California at 10AM on November 13, 2008, when southern Californians were asked to pretend that the M7.8 scenario earthquake had occurred and to practice actions that could reduce the impact on their lives. Residents, organizations, schools and businesses registered to participate in the drill through www.shakeout.org where they could get accessible information about the scenario earthquake and share ideas for better reparation. As of September 8, 2008, over 2.7 million confirmed participants had been registered. The primary message of the ShakeOut is that what we do now, before a big earthquake, will determine what our lives will be like after. The goal of the ShakeOut has been to change the culture of earthquake preparedness in southern California, making earthquakes a reality that are regularly discussed. This implements the sociological finding that 'milling,' discussing a problem with loved ones, is a prerequisite to taking action. ShakeOut milling is taking place at all levels from individuals and families, to corporations and governments. Actions taken as a result of the ShakeOut include the adoption of earthquake
Johnston, M J; Mortensen, C E
An array of 14 biaxial shallow-borehole tiltmeters (at 1O(-7) radian sensitivity) has been installed along 85 kilometers of the San Andreas fault during the past year. Earthquake-related changes in tilt have been simultaneously observed on up to four independent instruments. At earthquake distances greater than 10 earthquake source dimensions, there are few clear indications of tilt change. For the four instruments with the longest records (> 10 months), 26 earthquakes have occurred since July 1973 with at least one instrument closer than 10 source dimensions and 8 earthquakes with more than one instrument within that distance. Precursors in tilt direction have been observed before more than 10 earthquakes or groups of earthquakes, and no similar effect has yet been seen without the occurrence of an earthquake.
Zeng, Yuehua; Petersen, Mark D.; Shen, Zheng-Kang
Rock mechanics studies and dynamic earthquake simulations show that patterns of seismicity evolve with time through (1) accumulation phase, (2) localization phase, and (3) rupture phase. We observe a similar pattern of changes in seismicity during the past century across California and Nevada. To quantify these changes, we correlate GPS strain rates with seismicity. Earthquakes of M > 6.5 are collocated with regions of highest strain rates. By contrast, smaller magnitude earthquakes of M ≥ 4 show clear spatiotemporal changes. From 1933 to the late 1980s, earthquakes of M ≥ 4 were more diffused and broadly distributed in both high and low strain rate regions (accumulation phase). From the late 1980s to 2016, earthquakes were more concentrated within the high strain rate areas focused on the major fault strands (localization phase). In the same time period, the rate of M > 6.5 events also increased signiﬁcantly in the high strain rate areas. The strong correlation between current strain rate and the later period of seismicity indicates that seismicity is closely related to the strain rate. The spatial patterns suggest that before the late 1980s, the strain rate ﬁeld was also broadly distributed because of the stress shadows from previous large earthquakes. As the deformation ﬁeld evolved out of the shadow in the late 1980s, strain has refocused on the major fault systems and we are entering a period of increased risk for large earthquakes in California.
Kenneth O. Fulgham; Dennis Hosack
A total of 789 black bear damaged trees were investigate over a multi-year period on 14 different study sites chosen on lands of four participating timber companies. The sites ranged from 30 to 50 years of age. Four different conifer species were found to have black bear damage: coastal redwood (Sequoia sempervirens (D. Don) Endl.), Douglas-fir (...
Hough, Susan E.
The importance of historical earthquakes is being increasingly recognized. Careful investigations of key pre-instrumental earthquakes can provide critical information and insights for not only seismic hazard assessment but also for earthquake science. In recent years, with the explosive growth in computational sophistication in Earth sciences, researchers have developed increasingly sophisticated methods to analyze macroseismic data quantitatively. These methodological developments can be extremely useful to exploit fully the temporally and spatially rich information source that seismic intensities often represent. For example, the exhaustive and painstaking investigations done by Ambraseys and his colleagues of early Himalayan earthquakes provides information that can be used to map out site response in the Ganges basin. In any investigation of macroseismic data, however, one must stay mindful that intensity values are not data but rather interpretations. The results of any subsequent analysis, regardless of the degree of sophistication of the methodology, will be only as reliable as the interpretations of available accounts - and only as complete as the research done to ferret out, and in many cases translate, these accounts. When intensities are assigned without an appreciation of historical setting and context, seemingly careful subsequent analysis can yield grossly inaccurate results. As a case study, I report here on the results of a recent investigation of the 1872 Owen's Valley, California earthquake. Careful consideration of macroseismic observations reveals that this event was probably larger than the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906, and possibly the largest historical earthquake in California. The results suggest that some large earthquakes in California will generate significantly larger ground motions than San Andreas fault events of comparable magnitude
Rymer, Michael J.; Treiman, Jerome A.; Kendrick, Katherine J.; Lienkaemper, James J.; Weldon, Ray J.; Bilham, Roger; Wei, Meng; Fielding, Eric J.; Hernandez, Janis L.; Olson, Brian P.E.; Irvine, Pamela J.; Knepprath, Nichole; Sickler, Robert R.; Tong, Xiaopeng; Siem, Martin E.
The April 4, 2010 (Mw7.2), El Mayor-Cucapah, Baja California, Mexico, earthquake is the strongest earthquake to shake the Salton Trough area since the 1992 (Mw7.3) Landers earthquake. Similar to the Landers event, ground-surface fracturing occurred on multiple faults in the trough. However, the 2010 event triggered surface slip on more faults in the central Salton Trough than previous earthquakes, including multiple faults in the Yuha Desert area, the southwestern section of the Salton Trough. In the central Salton Trough, surface fracturing occurred along the southern San Andreas, Coyote Creek, Superstition Hills, Wienert, Kalin, and Imperial Faults and along the Brawley Fault Zone, all of which are known to have slipped in historical time, either in primary (tectonic) slip and/or in triggered slip. Surface slip in association with the El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake is at least the eighth time in the past 42 years that a local or regional earthquake has triggered slip along faults in the central Salton Trough. In the southwestern part of the Salton Trough, surface fractures (triggered slip) occurred in a broad area of the Yuha Desert. This is the first time that triggered slip has been observed in the southwestern Salton Trough.
The first statement from the US Geological Survey to the California Office of Emergency Services quantifying the probability of a possible future earthquake was made in October 1985 about the probability (approximately 5%) that a M4.7 earthquake located directly beneath the Coronado Bay Bridge in San Diego would be a foreshock to a larger earthquake. In the next 30 years, publication of aftershock advisories have become routine and formal statements about the probability of a larger event have been developed in collaboration with the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC) and sent to CalOES more than a dozen times. Most of these were subsequently released to the public. These communications have spanned a variety of approaches, with and without quantification of the probabilities, and using different ways to express the spatial extent and the magnitude distribution of possible future events. The USGS is re-examining its approach to aftershock probability statements and to operational earthquake forecasting with the goal of creating pre-vetted automated statements that can be released quickly after significant earthquakes. All of the previous formal advisories were written during the earthquake crisis. The time to create and release a statement became shorter with experience from the first public advisory (to the 1988 Lake Elsman earthquake) that was released 18 hours after the triggering event, but was never completed in less than 2 hours. As was done for the Parkfield experiment, the process will be reviewed by CEPEC and NEPEC (National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council) so the statements can be sent to the public automatically. This talk will review the advisories, the variations in wording and the public response and compare this with social science research about successful crisis communication, to create recommendations for future advisories
Mathany, Timothy; Burton, Carmen; Fram, Miranda S.
Groundwater provides more than 40 percent of California’s drinking water. To protect this vital resource, the State of California created the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The Priority Basin Project of the GAMA Program provides a comprehensive assessment of the State’s groundwater quality and increases public access to groundwater-quality information. The Bear Valley and Lake Arrowhead Watershed study areas in southern California compose one of the study units being evaluated.
Holzer, Thomas L.; Noce, Thomas E.; Bennett, Michael J.; Di Alessandro, Carola; Boatwright, John; Tinsley, John C.; Sell, Russell W.; Rosenberg, Lewis I.
The December 22, 2003, San Simeon, California, (M6.5) earthquake caused damage to houses, road surfaces, and underground utilities in Oceano, California. The community of Oceano is approximately 50 miles (80 km) from the earthquake epicenter. Damage at this distance from a M6.5 earthquake is unusual. To understand the causes of this damage, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted extensive subsurface exploration and monitoring of aftershocks in the months after the earthquake. The investigation included 37 seismic cone penetration tests, 5 soil borings, and aftershock monitoring from January 28 to March 7, 2004. The USGS investigation identified two earthquake hazards in Oceano that explain the San Simeon earthquake damage?site amplification and liquefaction. Site amplification is a phenomenon observed in many earthquakes where the strength of the shaking increases abnormally in areas where the seismic-wave velocity of shallow geologic layers is low. As a result, earthquake shaking is felt more strongly than in surrounding areas without similar geologic conditions. Site amplification in Oceano is indicated by the physical properties of the geologic layers beneath Oceano and was confirmed by monitoring aftershocks. Liquefaction, which is also commonly observed during earthquakes, is a phenomenon where saturated sands lose their strength during an earthquake and become fluid-like and mobile. As a result, the ground may undergo large permanent displacements that can damage underground utilities and well-built surface structures. The type of displacement of major concern associated with liquefaction is lateral spreading because it involves displacement of large blocks of ground down gentle slopes or towards stream channels. The USGS investigation indicates that the shallow geologic units beneath Oceano are very susceptible to liquefaction. They include young sand dunes and clean sandy artificial fill that was used to bury and convert marshes into developable lots. Most of
Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Shelly, David R.; Hsieh, Paul A.; Clor, Laura; P.H. Seward,; Evans, William C.
The increasing capability of seismic, geodetic, and hydrothermal observation networks allows recognition of volcanic unrest that could previously have gone undetected, creating an imperative to diagnose and interpret unrest episodes. A November 2014 earthquake swarm near Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, which included the largest earthquake in the area in more than 60 years, was accompanied by a rarely observed outburst of hydrothermal fluids. Although the earthquake swarm likely reflects upward migration of endogenous H2O-CO2 fluids in the source region, there is no evidence that such fluids emerged at the surface. Instead, shaking from the modest sized (moment magnitude 3.85) but proximal earthquake caused near-vent permeability increases that triggered increased outflow of hydrothermal fluids already present and equilibrated in a local hydrothermal aquifer. Long-term, multiparametric monitoring at Lassen and other well-instrumented volcanoes enhances interpretation of unrest and can provide a basis for detailed physical modeling.
Çelebi, Mehmet; Hasan Ulusoy,; Nori Nakata,
Increasing inventory of tall buildings in the United States and elsewhere may be subjected to motions generated by near and far seismic sources that cause long-period effects. Multiple sets of records that exhibited such effects were retrieved from tall buildings in Tokyo and Osaka ~ 350 km and 770 km from the epicenter of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In California, very few tall buildings have been instrumented. An instrumented 52-story building in downtown Los Angeles recorded seven local and distant earthquakes. Spectral and system identification methods exhibit significant low frequencies of interest (~0.17 Hz, 0.56 Hz and 1.05 Hz). These frequencies compare well with those computed by transfer functions; however, small variations are observed between the significant low frequencies for each of the seven earthquakes. The torsional and translational frequencies are very close and are coupled. Beating effect is observed in at least two of the seven earthquake data.
Attfield, Kathleen R; Dobson, Christine B; Henn, Jennifer B; Acosta, Meileen; Smorodinsky, Svetlana; Wilken, Jason A; Barreau, Tracy; Schreiber, Merritt; Windham, Gayle C; Materna, Barbara L; Roisman, Rachel
On August 24, 2014, at 3:20 a.m., a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck California, with its epicenter in Napa County (1). The earthquake was the largest to affect the San Francisco Bay area in 25 years and caused significant damage in Napa and Solano counties, including widespread power outages, five residential fires, and damage to roadways, waterlines, and 1,600 buildings (2). Two deaths resulted (2). On August 25, Napa County Public Health asked the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) for assistance in assessing postdisaster health effects, including earthquake-related injuries and effects on mental health. On September 23, Solano County Public Health requested similar assistance. A household-level Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) was conducted for these counties in two cities (Napa, 3 weeks after the earthquake, and Vallejo, 6 weeks after the earthquake). Among households reporting injuries, a substantial proportion (48% in Napa and 37% in western Vallejo) reported that the injuries occurred during the cleanup period, suggesting that increased messaging on safety precautions after a disaster might be needed. One fifth of respondents overall (27% in Napa and 9% in western Vallejo) reported one or more traumatic psychological exposures in their households. These findings were used by Napa County Mental Health to guide immediate-term mental health resource allocations and to conduct public training sessions and education campaigns to support persons with mental health risks following the earthquake. In addition, to promote community resilience and future earthquake preparedness, Napa County Public Health subsequently conducted community events on the earthquake anniversary and provided outreach workers with psychological first aid training.
Thomas, Jeremy N.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Komjathy, Attila; Verkhoglyadova, Olga P.; Butala, Mark; Rivera, Nicholas
Using Global Positioning System (GPS) data from sites near the 16 Oct. 1999 Hector Mine, California earthquake, Pulinets et al. (2007) identified anomalous changes in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) starting one week prior to the earthquake. Pulinets (2007) suggested that precursory phenomena of this type could be useful for predicting earthquakes. On the other hand, and in a separate analysis, Afraimovich et al. (2004) concluded that TEC variations near the epicenter were controlled by solar and geomagnetic activity that were unrelated to the earthquake. In an investigation of these very different results, we examine TEC time series of long duration from GPS stations near and far from the epicenter of the Hector Mine earthquake, and long before and long after the earthquake. While we can reproduce the essential time series results of Pulinets et al., we find that the signal they identify as anomalous is not actually anomalous. Instead, it is just part of normal global-scale TEC variation. We conclude that the TEC anomaly reported by Pulinets et al. is unrelated to the Hector Mine earthquake.
Modern earthquake ground motion hazard mapping in California began following the 1971 San Fernando earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area of southern California. Earthquake hazard assessment followed a traditional approach, later called Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) in order to distinguish it from the newer Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). In DSHA, seismic hazard in the event of the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) magnitude from each of the known seismogenic faults within and near the state are assessed. The likely occurrence of the MCE has been assumed qualitatively by using late Quaternary and younger faults that are presumed to be seismogenic, but not when or within what time intervals MCE may occur. MCE is the largest or upper-bound potential earthquake in moment magnitude, and it supersedes and automatically considers all other possible earthquakes on that fault. That moment magnitude is used for estimating ground motions by applying it to empirical attenuation relationships, and for calculating ground motions as in neo-DSHA (Z uccolo et al., 2008). The first deterministic California earthquake hazard map was published in 1974 by the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) which has been called the California Geological Survey (CGS) since 2002, using the best available fault information and ground motion attenuation relationships at that time. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) later assumed responsibility for printing the refined and updated peak acceleration contour maps which were heavily utilized by geologists, seismologists, and engineers for many years. Some engineers involved in the siting process of large important projects, for example, dams and nuclear power plants, continued to challenge the map(s). The second edition map was completed in 1985 incorporating more faults, improving MCE's estimation method, and using new ground motion attenuation relationships from the latest published
Jones, Lucile M.
The probability that an earthquake in southern California (M greater than equivalent to 3. 0) will be followed by an earthquake of larger magnitude within 5 days and 10 km (i. e. , will be a foreshock) is 6 plus or minus 0. 5 per cent (1 S. D. ), and is not significantly dependent on the magnitude of the possible foreshock between M equals 3 and M equals 5. The probability that an earthquake will be followed by an M greater than equivalent to 5. 0 main shock, however, increases with magnitude of the foreshock from less than 1 per cent at M greater than equivalent to 3 to 6. 5 plus or minus 2. 5 per cent (1 S. D. ) at M greater than equivalent to 5. The main shock will most likely occur in the first hour after the foreshock, and the probability that a main shock will occur in the first hour decreases with elapsed time from the occurrence of the possible foreshock by approximately the inverse of time. Thus, the occurrence of an earthquake of M greater than equivalent to 3. 0 in southern California increases the earthquake hazard within a small space-time window several orders of magnitude above the normal background level.
Bodin, Paul; Gomberg, Joan
This article presents evidence for the channeling of strain energy released by the Ms = 7.4 Landers, California, earthquake within the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ). We document an increase in seismicity levels during the 22-hr period starting with the Landers earthquake and culminating 22 hr later with the Ms = 5.4 Little Skull Mountain (LSM), Nevada, earthquake. We evaluate the completeness of regional seismicity catalogs during this period and find that the continuity of post-Landers strain release within the ECSZ is even more pronounced than is evident from the catalog data. We hypothesize that regional-scale connectivity of faults within the ECSZ and LSM region is a critical ingredient in the unprecedented scale and distribution of remotely triggered earthquakes and geodetically manifest strain changes that followed the Landers earthquake. The viability of static strain changes as triggering agents is tested using numerical models. Modeling results illustrate that regional-scale fault connectivity can increase the static strain changes by approximately an order of magnitude at distances of at least 280 km, the distance between the Landers and LSM epicenters. This is possible for models that include both a network of connected faults that slip “sympathetically” and realistic levels of tectonic prestrain. Alternatively, if dynamic strains are a more significant triggering agent than static strains, ECSZ structure may still be important in determining the distribution of triggered seismic and aseismic deformation.
Hauksson, Egill; Stein, Ross S.
Just 3 hours after the Whittier Narrows earthquake struck, it became clear that a heretofore unseen geological structure was seismically active beneath metropolitan Los Angeles. Contrary to initial expectations of strike-slip or oblique-slip motion on the Whittier fault, whose north end abuts the aftershock zone, the focal mechanism of the mainshock showed pure thrust faulting on a deep gently inclined surface [Hauksson et al., 1988]. This collection of nine research reports spans the spectru...
McCue, Michael J; Thompson, Jon M
Abstract In recent years, community hospitals have experienced heightened regulation with many unfunded mandates. The authors assessed the market, organizational, operational, and financial characteristics of general acute care hospitals in California that have a main acute care hospital building that is noncompliant with state requirements and at risk of major structural collapse from earthquakes. Using California hospital data from 2007 to 2009, and employing logistic regression analysis, the authors found that hospitals having buildings that are at the highest risk of collapse are located in larger population markets, possess smaller market share, have a higher percentage of Medicaid patients, and have less liquidity.
Perry, S.; Jordan, T.
Our undergraduate research program, SCEC/UseIT, an NSF Research Experience for Undergraduates site, provides software for earthquake researchers and educators, movies for outreach, and ways to strengthen the technical career pipeline. SCEC/UseIT motivates diverse undergraduates towards science and engineering careers through team-based research in the exciting field of earthquake information technology. UseIT provides the cross-training in computer science/information technology (CS/IT) and geoscience needed to make fundamental progress in earthquake system science. Our high and increasing participation of women and minority students is crucial given the nation"s precipitous enrollment declines in CS/IT undergraduate degree programs, especially among women. UseIT also casts a "wider, farther" recruitment net that targets scholars interested in creative work but not traditionally attracted to summer science internships. Since 2002, SCEC/UseIT has challenged 79 students in three dozen majors from as many schools with difficult, real-world problems that require collaborative, interdisciplinary solutions. Interns design and engineer open-source software, creating increasingly sophisticated visualization tools (see "SCEC-VDO," session IN11), which are employed by SCEC researchers, in new curricula at the University of Southern California, and by outreach specialists who make animated movies for the public and the media. SCEC-VDO would be a valuable tool for research-oriented professional development programs.
Mahdyiar, M.; Guin, J.
Probabilistic earthquake hazard and loss analyses play important roles in many areas of risk management, including earthquake related public policy and insurance ratemaking. Rigorous loss estimation for portfolios of properties is difficult since there are various types of uncertainties in all aspects of modeling and analysis. It is the objective of this study to investigate the sensitivity of earthquake loss estimation to uncertainties in regional seismicity, earthquake source parameters, ground motions, and sites' spatial correlation on typical property portfolios in Southern California. Southern California is an attractive region for such a study because it has a large population concentration exposed to significant levels of seismic hazard. During the last decade, there have been several comprehensive studies of most regional faults and seismogenic sources. There have also been detailed studies on regional ground motion attenuations and regional and local site responses to ground motions. This information has been used by engineering seismologists to conduct regional seismic hazard and risk analysis on a routine basis. However, one of the more difficult tasks in such studies is the proper incorporation of uncertainties in the analysis. From the hazard side, there are uncertainties in the magnitudes, rates and mechanisms of the seismic sources and local site conditions and ground motion site amplifications. From the vulnerability side, there are considerable uncertainties in estimating the state of damage of buildings under different earthquake ground motions. From an analytical side, there are challenges in capturing the spatial correlation of ground motions and building damage, and integrating thousands of loss distribution curves with different degrees of correlation. In this paper we propose to address some of these issues by conducting loss analyses of a typical small portfolio in southern California, taking into consideration various source and ground
Stephenson, Nicole; Higley, J Mark; Sajecki, Jaime L; Chomel, Bruno B; Brown, Richard N; Foley, Janet E
American black bears (Ursus americanus) are common, widely distributed, and broad-ranging omnivorous mammals in northern California forests. Bears may be susceptible to pathogens infecting both domestic animals and humans. Monitoring bear populations, particularly in changing ecosystems, is important to understanding ecological features that could affect bear population health and influence the likelihood that bears may cause adverse impacts on humans. In all, 321 bears were captured between May, 2001, and October, 2003, and blood samples were collected and tested for multiple zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. We found a PCR prevalence of 10% for Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and a seroprevalence of 28% for Toxoplasma gondii, 26% for Borrelia burgdorferi, 26% for A. phagocytophilum, 8% for Trichinella spiralis, 8% for Francisella tularensis and 1% for Yersinia pestis. In addition, we tested bears for pathogens of domestic dogs and found a seroprevalence of 15% for canine distemper virus and 0.6% for canine parvovirus. Our findings show that black bears can become infected with pathogens that are an important public health concern, as well as pathogens that can affect both domestic animals and other wildlife species.
The construction of health-care facilities is similar to that of other buildings. Yet the need to function immediately after an earthquake, the helplessness of the many patients and the high and continuous occupancy of these buildings, require that special attention be paid to their seismic performance. Here the lessons from the California experience are invaluable. In this paper the behavior of California hospitals during destructive earthquakes is briefly described. Adequate structural design and execution, and securing of nonstructural elements are required to ensure both safety of occupants, and practically uninterrupted functioning of equipment, mechanical and electrical services and other vital systems. Criteria for post-earthquake functioning are listed. In view of the hazards to Israeli hospitals, in particular those located along the Jordan Valley and the Arava, a program for the seismic evaluation of medical facilities should be initiated. This evaluation should consider the hazards from nonstructural elements, the safety of equipment and systems, and their ability to function after a severe earthquake. It should not merely concentrate on safety-related structural behavior.
Coordinated by Holzer, Thomas L.
Professional Paper 1551 describes the effects at the land surface caused by the Loma Prieta earthquake. These effects: include the pattern and characteristics of strong ground shaking, liquefaction of both floodplain deposits along the Pajaro and Salinas Rivers in the Monterey Bay region and sandy artificial fills along the margins of San Francisco Bay, landslides in the epicentral region, and increased stream flow. Some significant findings and their impacts were: * Strong shaking that was amplified by a factor of about two by soft soils caused damage at up to 100 kilometers (60 miles) from the epicenter. * Instrumental recordings of the ground shaking have been used to improve how building codes consider site amplification effects from soft soils. * Liquefaction at 134 locations caused $99.2 million of the total earthquake loss of $5.9 billion. Liquefaction of floodplain deposits and sandy artificial fills was similar in nature to that which occurred in the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and indicated that many areas remain susceptible to liquefaction damage in the San Francisco and Monterey Bay regions. * Landslides caused $30 million in earthquake losses, damaging at least 200 residences. Many landslides showed evidence of movement in previous earthquakes. * Recognition of the similarities between liquefaction and landslides in 1906 and 1989 and research in intervening years that established methodologies to map liquefaction and landslide hazards prompted the California legislature to pass in 1990 the Seismic Hazards Mapping Act that required the California Geological Survey to delineate regulatory zones of areas potentially susceptible to these hazards. * The earthquake caused the flow of many streams in the epicentral region to increase. Effects were noted up to 88 km from the epicenter. * Post-earthquake studies of the Marina District of San Francisco provide perhaps the most comprehensive case history of earthquake effects at a specific site developed for
Neuhauser, D. S.; Zuzlewski, S.; Allen, R. M.
The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) provides data archive and distribution services for seismological and geophysical data sets that encompass northern California. The NCEDC is enhancing its ability to deliver rapid information through Web Services. NCEDC Web Services use well-established web server and client protocols and REST software architecture to allow users to easily make queries using web browsers or simple program interfaces and to receive the requested data in real-time rather than through batch or email-based requests. Data are returned to the user in the appropriate format such as XML, RESP, or MiniSEED depending on the service, and are compatible with the equivalent IRIS DMC web services. The NCEDC is currently providing the following Web Services: (1) Station inventory and channel response information delivered in StationXML format, (2) Channel response information delivered in RESP format, (3) Time series availability delivered in text and XML formats, (4) Single channel and bulk data request delivered in MiniSEED format. The NCEDC is also developing a rich Earthquake Catalog Web Service to allow users to query earthquake catalogs based on selection parameters such as time, location or geographic region, magnitude, depth, azimuthal gap, and rms. It will return (in QuakeML format) user-specified results that can include simple earthquake parameters, as well as observations such as phase arrivals, codas, amplitudes, and computed parameters such as first motion mechanisms, moment tensors, and rupture length. The NCEDC will work with both IRIS and the International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) to define a uniform set of web service specifications that can be implemented by multiple data centers to provide users with a common data interface across data centers. The NCEDC now hosts earthquake catalogs and waveforms from the US Department of Energy (DOE) Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) monitoring networks. These
Krishnan, S.; Ji, C.; Komatitsch, D.; Tromp, J.
In 1857, an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 occurred on the San Andreas fault, starting at Parkfield and rupturing in a southeasterly direction for more than 300~km. Such a unilateral rupture produces significant directivity toward the San Fernando and Los Angeles basins. The strong shaking in the basins due to this earthquake would have had a significant long-period content (2--8~s). If such motions were to happen today, they could have a serious impact on tall buildings in Southern California. In order to study the effects of large San Andreas fault earthquakes on tall buildings in Southern California, we use the finite source of the magnitude 7.9 2001 Denali fault earthquake in Alaska and map it onto the San Andreas fault with the rupture originating at Parkfield and proceeding southward over a distance of 290~km. Using the SPECFEM3D spectral element seismic wave propagation code, we simulate a Denali-like earthquake on the San Andreas fault and compute ground motions at sites located on a grid with a 2.5--5.0~km spacing in the greater Southern California region. We subsequently analyze 3D structural models of an existing tall steel building designed in 1984 as well as one designed according to the current building code (Uniform Building Code, 1997) subjected to the computed ground motion. We use a sophisticated nonlinear building analysis program, FRAME3D, that has the ability to simulate damage in buildings due to three-component ground motion. We summarize the performance of these structural models on contour maps of carefully selected structural performance indices. This study could benefit the city in laying out emergency response strategies in the event of an earthquake on the San Andreas fault, in undertaking appropriate retrofit measures for tall buildings, and in formulating zoning regulations for new construction. In addition, the study would provide risk data associated with existing and new construction to insurance companies, real estate developers, and
Xue, L.; Burgmann, R.; Shelly, D. R.
The effect of small periodic stress perturbations on earthquake generation is not clear, however, the rate of low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) near Parkfield, California has been found to be strongly correlated with solid earth tides. Laboratory experiments and theoretical analyses show that the period of imposed forcing and source properties affect the sensitivity to triggering and the phase relation of the peak seismicity rate and the periodic stress, but frequency-dependent triggering has not been quantitatively explored in the field. Tidal forcing acts over a wide range of frequencies, therefore the sensitivity to tidal triggering of LFEs provides a good probe to the physical mechanisms affecting earthquake generation. In this study, we consider the tidal triggering of LFEs near Parkfield, California since 2001. We find the LFEs rate is correlated with tidal shear stress, normal stress rate and shear stress rate. The occurrence of LFEs can also be independently modulated by groups of tidal constituents at semi-diurnal, diurnal and fortnightly frequencies. The strength of the response of LFEs to the different tidal constituents varies between LFE families. Each LFE family has an optimal triggering frequency, which does not appear to be depth dependent or systematically related to other known properties. This suggests the period of the applied forcing plays an important role in the triggering process, and the interaction of periods of loading history and source region properties, such as friction, effective normal stress and pore fluid pressure, produces the observed frequency-dependent tidal triggering of LFEs.
Kumar, Manish, E-mail: email@example.com [Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Gandhinagar 382355 (India); Whittaker, Andrew S.; Constantinou, Michael C. [Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260 (United States)
Highlights: • Response-history analysis of a nuclear power plant (NPP) isolated using sliding bearings. • Two models of the NPP, five friction models and four seismic hazard levels considered. • Isolation system displacement can be obtained using a macro NPP model subjected to only horizontal ground motions. • Temperature dependence of friction should be considered in isolation-system displacement calculations. • The effect of friction model on floor spectral ordinates is rather small, especially near the basemat. - Abstract: Horizontal seismic isolation is a viable approach to mitigate risk to structures, systems and components (SSCs) in nuclear power plants (NPPs) under extreme ground shaking. This paper presents a study on an NPP seismically isolated using single concave Friction Pendulum™ (FP) bearings subjected to ground motions representing seismic hazard at two US sites: Diablo Canyon and Vogtle. Two models of the NPP, five models to describe friction at the sliding surface of the FP bearings, and four levels of ground shaking are considered for response-history analysis, which provide insight into the influence of 1) the required level of detail of an NPP model, 2) the vertical component of ground motion on response of isolated NPPs, and 3) the pressure-, temperature- and/or velocity-dependencies of the coefficient of friction, on the response of an isolated NPP. The isolation-system displacement of an NPP can be estimated using a macro model subjected to only the two orthogonal horizontal components of ground motion. The variation of the coefficient of friction with temperature at the sliding surface during earthquake shaking should be accounted for in the calculation of isolation-system displacements, particularly when the shaking intensity is high; pressure and velocity dependencies are not important. In-structure floor spectra should be computed using a detailed three-dimensional model of an isolated NPP subjected to all three components of
An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...
McGarr, Arthur F.; Boettcher, M.; Fletcher, Jon Peter B.; Sell, Russell; Johnston, Malcolm J.; Durrheim, R.; Spottiswoode, S.; Milev, A.
For one week during September 2007, we deployed a temporary network of field recorders and accelerometers at four sites within two deep, seismically active mines. The ground-motion data, recorded at 200 samples/sec, are well suited to determining source and ground-motion parameters for the mining-induced earthquakes within and adjacent to our network. Four earthquakes with magnitudes close to 2 were recorded with high signal/noise at all four sites. Analysis of seismic moments and peak velocities, in conjunction with the results of laboratory stick-slip friction experiments, were used to estimate source processes that are key to understanding source physics and to assessing underground seismic hazard. The maximum displacements on the rupture surfaces can be estimated from the parameter , where is the peak ground velocity at a given recording site, and R is the hypocentral distance. For each earthquake, the maximum slip and seismic moment can be combined with results from laboratory friction experiments to estimate the maximum slip rate within the rupture zone. Analysis of the four M 2 earthquakes recorded during our deployment and one of special interest recorded by the in-mine seismic network in 2004 revealed maximum slips ranging from 4 to 27 mm and maximum slip rates from 1.1 to 6.3 m/sec. Applying the same analyses to an M 2.1 earthquake within a cluster of repeating earthquakes near the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth site, California, yielded similar results for maximum slip and slip rate, 14 mm and 4.0 m/sec.
Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.
The Brawley seismic zone (BSZ), in the Salton trough of southern California, has a history of earthquake swarms and geothermal energy exploitation. Some earthquake rate changes may have been induced by fluid extraction and injection activity at local geothermal fields, particularly at the North Brawley Geothermal Field (NBGF) and at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF). We explore this issue by examining earthquake rate changes and interevent distance distributions in these fields. In Oklahoma and Arkansas, where considerable wastewater injection occurs, increases in background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity and decreases in interevent distance were indicative of fluid‐injection‐induced seismicity. Here, we test if similar changes occur that may be associated with fluid injection and extraction in geothermal areas. We use stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models to detect changes in the underlying seismogenic processes, shown by statistically significant changes in the model parameters. The most robust model changes in the SSGF roughly occur when large changes in net fluid production occur, but a similar correlation is not seen in the NBGF. Also, although both background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity increased for fluid‐injection‐induced earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas, the background rate increases significantly in the BSZ only, roughly corresponding with net fluid production rate increases. Moreover, in both fields the interevent spacing does not change significantly during active energy projects. This suggests that, although geothermal field activities in a tectonically active region may not significantly change the physics of earthquake interactions, earthquake rates may still be driven by fluid injection or extraction rates, particularly in the SSGF.
Yu, E.; Bhaskaran, A.; Chen, S.; Chowdhury, F. R.; Meisenhelter, S.; Hutton, K.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Clayton, R. W.
Currently the SCEDC archives continuous and triggered data from nearly 5000 data channels from 425 SCSN recorded stations, processing and archiving an average of 12,000 earthquakes each year. The SCEDC provides public access to these earthquake parametric and waveform data through its website www.data.scec.org and through client applications such as STP and DHI. This poster will describe the most significant developments at the SCEDC in the past year. Updated hardware: ● The SCEDC has more than doubled its waveform file storage capacity by migrating to 2 TB disks. New data holdings: ● Waveform data: Beginning Jan 1, 2010 the SCEDC began continuously archiving all high-sample-rate strong-motion channels. All seismic channels recorded by SCSN are now continuously archived and available at SCEDC. ● Portable data from El Mayor Cucapah 7.2 sequence: Seismic waveforms from portable stations installed by researchers (contributed by Elizabeth Cochran, Jamie Steidl, and Octavio Lazaro-Mancilla) have been added to the archive and are accessible through STP either as continuous data or associated with events in the SCEDC earthquake catalog. This additional data will help SCSN analysts and researchers improve event locations from the sequence. ● Real time GPS solutions from El Mayor Cucapah 7.2 event: Three component 1Hz seismograms of California Real Time Network (CRTN) GPS stations, from the April 4, 2010, magnitude 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake are available in SAC format at the SCEDC. These time series were created by Brendan Crowell, Yehuda Bock, the project PI, and Mindy Squibb at SOPAC using data from the CRTN. The El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake demonstrated definitively the power of real-time high-rate GPS data: they measure dynamic displacements directly, they do not clip and they are also able to detect the permanent (coseismic) surface deformation. ● Triggered data from the Quake Catcher Network (QCN) and Community Seismic Network (CSN): The SCEDC in
Asencio-Cortés, G.; Morales-Esteban, A.; Shang, X.; Martínez-Álvarez, F.
Earthquake magnitude prediction is a challenging problem that has been widely studied during the last decades. Statistical, geophysical and machine learning approaches can be found in literature, with no particularly satisfactory results. In recent years, powerful computational techniques to analyze big data have emerged, making possible the analysis of massive datasets. These new methods make use of physical resources like cloud based architectures. California is known for being one of the regions with highest seismic activity in the world and many data are available. In this work, the use of several regression algorithms combined with ensemble learning is explored in the context of big data (1 GB catalog is used), in order to predict earthquakes magnitude within the next seven days. Apache Spark framework, H2 O library in R language and Amazon cloud infrastructure were been used, reporting very promising results.
Gilchrist, J. J.; Jordan, T. H.; Shaw, B. E.; Milner, K. R.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.; Dieterich, J. H.
Within the SCEC Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM), we are developing physics-based forecasting models for earthquake ruptures in California. We employ the 3D boundary element code RSQSim (Rate-State Earthquake Simulator of Dieterich & Richards-Dinger, 2010) to generate synthetic catalogs with tens of millions of events that span up to a million years each. This code models rupture nucleation by rate- and state-dependent friction and Coulomb stress transfer in complex, fully interacting fault systems. The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) fault and deformation models are used to specify the fault geometry and long-term slip rates. We have employed the Blue Waters supercomputer to generate long catalogs of simulated California seismicity from which we calculate the forecasting statistics for large events. We have performed probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with RSQSim catalogs that were calibrated with system-wide parameters and found a remarkably good agreement with UCERF3 (Milner et al., this meeting). We build on this analysis, comparing the conditional probabilities of sequences of large events from RSQSim and UCERF3. In making these comparisons, we consider the epistemic uncertainties associated with the RSQSim parameters (e.g., rate- and state-frictional parameters), as well as the effects of model-tuning (e.g., adjusting the RSQSim parameters to match UCERF3 recurrence rates). The comparisons illustrate how physics-based rupture simulators might assist forecasters in understanding the short-term hazards of large aftershocks and multi-event sequences associated with complex, multi-fault ruptures.
Jones, Lucile M.; ,
The Great Southern California ShakeOut was a week of special events featuring the largest earthquake drill in United States history. On November 13, 2008, over 5 million southern Californians pretended that a magnitude-7.8 earthquake had occurred and practiced actions that could reduce its impact on their lives. The primary message of the ShakeOut is that what we do now, before a big earthquake, will determine what our lives will be like after. The drill was based on a scenario of the impacts and consequences of such an earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault, developed by over 300 experts led by the U.S. Geological Survey in partnership with the California Geological Survey, the Southern California Earthquake Center, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, lifeline operators, emergency services and many other organizations. The ShakeOut campaign was designed and implemented by earthquake scientists, emergency managers, sociologists, art designers and community participants. The means of communication were developed using results from sociological research on what encouraged people to take action. This was structured around four objectives: 1) consistent messages – people are more inclined to believe something when they hear the same thing from multiple sources; 2) visual reinforcement – people are more inclined to do something they see other people doing; 3) encourage “milling” or discussing contemplated action – people need to discuss an action with others they care about before committing to undertaking it; and 4) focus on concrete actions – people are more likely to prepare for a set of concrete consequences of a particular hazard than for an abstract concept of risk. The goals of the ShakeOut were established in Spring 2008 and were: 1) to register 5 million people to participate in the drill; 2) to change the culture of earthquake preparedness in southern California; and 3) to reduce earthquake losses in southern California. All of these
Neuhauser, D. S.; Zuzlewski, S.; Lombard, P. N.; Allen, R. M.
The Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) provides data archive and distribution services for seismological and geophysical data sets that encompass northern California. The NCEDC is enhancing its ability to deliver rapid information through Web Services. NCEDC Web Services use well-established web server and client protocols and REST software architecture to allow users to easily make queries using web browsers or simple program interfaces and to receive the requested data in real-time rather than through batch or email-based requests. Data are returned to the user in the appropriate format such as XML, RESP, simple text, or MiniSEED depending on the service and selected output format. The NCEDC offers the following web services that are compliant with the International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) web services specifications: (1) fdsn-dataselect: time series data delivered in MiniSEED format, (2) fdsn-station: station and channel metadata and time series availability delivered in StationXML format, (3) fdsn-event: earthquake event information delivered in QuakeML format. In addition, the NCEDC offers the the following IRIS-compatible web services: (1) sacpz: provide channel gains, poles, and zeros in SAC format, (2) resp: provide channel response information in RESP format, (3) dataless: provide station and channel metadata in Dataless SEED format. The NCEDC is also developing a web service to deliver timeseries from pre-assembled event waveform gathers. The NCEDC has waveform gathers for ~750,000 northern and central California events from 1984 to the present, many of which were created by the USGS NCSN prior to the establishment of the joint NCSS (Northern California Seismic System). We are currently adding waveforms to these older event gathers with time series from the UCB networks and other networks with waveforms archived at the NCEDC, and ensuring that the waveform for each channel in the event gathers have the highest
Appel, V. L.
The Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) archives and provides public access to earthquake parametric and waveform data gathered by the Southern California Seismic Network and since January 1, 2001, the TriNet seismic network, southern California's earthquake monitoring network. The parametric data in the archive includes earthquake locations, magnitudes, moment-tensor solutions and phase picks. The SCEDC waveform archive prior to TriNet consists primarily of short-period, 100-samples-per-second waveforms from the SCSN. The addition of the TriNet array added continuous recordings of 155 broadband stations (20 samples per second or less), and triggered seismograms from 200 accelerometers and 200 short-period instruments. Since the Data Center and TriNet use the same Oracle database system, new earthquake data are available to the seismological community in near real-time. Primary access to the database and waveforms is through the Seismogram Transfer Program (STP) interface. The interface enables users to search the database for earthquake information, phase picks, and continuous and triggered waveform data. Output is available in SAC, miniSEED, and other formats. Both the raw counts format (V0) and the gain-corrected format (V1) of COSMOS (Consortium of Organizations for Strong-Motion Observation Systems) are now supported by STP. EQQuest is an interface to prepackaged waveform data sets for select earthquakes in Southern California stored at the SCEDC. Waveform data for large-magnitude events have been prepared and new data sets will be available for download in near real-time following major events. The parametric data from 1981 to present has been loaded into the Oracle 184.108.40.206 database system and the waveforms for that time period have been converted to mSEED format and are accessible through the STP interface. The DISC optical-disk system (the "jukebox") that currently serves as the mass-storage for the SCEDC is in the process of being replaced
Granat, Robert; Donnellan, Andrea
The Magnitude 7.2 El-Mayor/Cucapah earthquake the occurred in Mexico on April 4, 2012 was well instrumented with continuous GPS stations in California. Large Offsets were observed at the GPS stations as a result of deformation from the earthquake providing information about the co-seismic fault slip as well as fault slip from large aftershocks. Information can also be obtained from the position time series at each station.
Hartzell, S.; Liu, P.
A method is presented for the simultaneous calculation of slip amplitudes and rupture times for a finite fault using a hybrid global search algorithm. The method we use combines simulated annealing with the downhill simplex method to produce a more efficient search algorithm then either of the two constituent parts. This formulation has advantages over traditional iterative or linearized approaches to the problem because it is able to escape local minima in its search through model space for the global optimum. We apply this global search method to the calculation of the rupture history for the Landers, California, earthquake. The rupture is modeled using three separate finite-fault planes to represent the three main fault segments that failed during this earthquake. Both the slip amplitude and the time of slip are calculated for a grid work of subfaults. The data used consist of digital, teleseismic P and SH body waves. Long-period, broadband, and short-period records are utilized to obtain a wideband characterization of the source. The results of the global search inversion are compared with a more traditional linear-least-squares inversion for only slip amplitudes. We use a multi-time-window linear analysis to relax the constraints on rupture time and rise time in the least-squares inversion. Both inversions produce similar slip distributions, although the linear-least-squares solution has a 10% larger moment (7.3 ?? 1026 dyne-cm compared with 6.6 ?? 1026 dyne-cm). Both inversions fit the data equally well and point out the importance of (1) using a parameterization with sufficient spatial and temporal flexibility to encompass likely complexities in the rupture process, (2) including suitable physically based constraints on the inversion to reduce instabilities in the solution, and (3) focusing on those robust rupture characteristics that rise above the details of the parameterization and data set.
Chen, S. E.; Yu, E.; Bhaskaran, A.; Chowdhury, F. R.; Meisenhelter, S.; Hutton, K.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Clayton, R. W.
Currently, the SCEDC archives continuous and triggered data from nearly 8400 data channels from 425 SCSN recorded stations, processing and archiving an average of 6.4 TB of continuous waveforms and 12,000 earthquakes each year. The SCEDC provides public access to these earthquake parametric and waveform data through its website www.data.scec.org and through client applications such as STP and DHI. This poster will describe the most significant developments at the SCEDC during 2011. New website design: ? The SCEDC has revamped its website. The changes make it easier for users to search the archive, discover updates and new content. These changes also improve our ability to manage and update the site. New data holdings: ? Post processing on El Mayor Cucapah 7.2 sequence continues. To date there have been 11847 events reviewed. Updates are available in the earthquake catalog immediately. ? A double difference catalog (Hauksson et. al 2011) spanning 1981 to 6/30/11 will be available for download at www.data.scec.org and available via STP. ? A focal mechanism catalog determined by Yang et al. 2011 is available for distribution at www.data.scec.org. ? Waveforms from Southern California NetQuake stations are now being stored in the SCEDC archive and available via STP as event associated waveforms. Amplitudes from these stations are also being stored in the archive and used by ShakeMap. ? As part of a NASA/AIST project in collaboration with JPL and SIO, the SCEDC will receive real time 1 sps streams of GPS displacement solutions from the California Real Time Network (http://sopac.ucsd.edu/projects/realtime; Genrich and Bock, 2006, J. Geophys. Res.). These channels will be archived at the SCEDC as miniSEED waveforms, which then can be distributed to the user community via applications such as STP. Improvements in the user tool STP: ? STP sac output now includes picks from the SCSN. New archival methods: ? The SCEDC is exploring the feasibility of archiving and distributing
Wu, Chunquan; Guyer, Robert; Shelly, David R.; Trugman, D.; Frank, William; Gomberg, Joan S.; Johnson, P.
Tectonic tremor (TT) and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) have been found in the deeper crust of various tectonic environments globally in the last decade. The spatial-temporal behaviour of LFEs provides insight into deep fault zone processes. In this study, we examine recurrence times from a 12-yr catalogue of 88 LFE families with ∼730 000 LFEs in the vicinity of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in central California. We apply an automatic burst detection algorithm to the LFE recurrence times to identify the clustering behaviour of LFEs (LFE bursts) in each family. We find that the burst behaviours in the northern and southern LFE groups differ. Generally, the northern group has longer burst duration but fewer LFEs per burst, while the southern group has shorter burst duration but more LFEs per burst. The southern group LFE bursts are generally more correlated than the northern group, suggesting more coherent deep fault slip and relatively simpler deep fault structure beneath the locked section of SAF. We also found that the 2004 Parkfield earthquake clearly increased the number of LFEs per burst and average burst duration for both the northern and the southern groups, with a relatively larger effect on the northern group. This could be due to the weakness of northern part of the fault, or the northwesterly rupture direction of the Parkfield earthquake.
Fram, Miranda S.; Jasper, Monica; Taylor, Kimberly A.
Groundwater provides more than 40 percent of California’s drinking water. To protect this vital resource, the State of California created the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The GAMA Program’s Priority Basin Project assesses the quality of groundwater resources used for drinking water supply and increases public access to groundwater-quality information. In the Yuba River and Bear River Watersheds of the Sierra Nevada, many rural households rely on private wells for their drinking water supplies.
Taira, Taka’aki; Nayak, Avinash; Brenguier, Florent; Manga, Michael
Continuous monitoring of in situ reservoir responses to stress transients provides insights into the evolution of geothermal reservoirs. By exploiting the stress dependence of seismic velocity changes, we investigate the temporal evolution of the reservoir stress state of the Salton Sea geothermal field (SSGF), California. We find that the SSGF experienced a number of sudden velocity reductions (~0.035 to 0.25%) that are most likely caused by openings of fractures due to dynamic stress transients (as small as 0.08 MPa and up to 0.45 MPa) from local and regional earthquakes. Depths of velocity changes are estimated to be about 0.5 to 1.5 km, similar to the depths of the injection and production wells. We derive an empirical in situ stress sensitivity of seismic velocity changes by relating velocity changes to dynamic stresses. We also observe systematic velocity reductions (0.04 to 0.05%) during earthquake swarms in mid-November 2009 and late-December 2010. On the basis of volumetric static and dynamic stress changes, the expected velocity reductions from the largest earthquakes with magnitude ranging from 3 to 4 in these swarms are less than 0.02%, which suggests that these earthquakes are likely not responsible for the velocity changes observed during the swarms. Instead, we argue that velocity reductions may have been induced by poroelastic opening of fractures due to aseismic deformation. We also observe a long-term velocity increase (~0.04%/year) that is most likely due to poroelastic contraction caused by the geothermal production. Our observations demonstrate that seismic interferometry provides insights into in situ reservoir response to stress changes. PMID:29326977
Taira, Taka'aki; Nayak, Avinash; Brenguier, Florent; Manga, Michael
Continuous monitoring of in situ reservoir responses to stress transients provides insights into the evolution of geothermal reservoirs. By exploiting the stress dependence of seismic velocity changes, we investigate the temporal evolution of the reservoir stress state of the Salton Sea geothermal field (SSGF), California. We find that the SSGF experienced a number of sudden velocity reductions (~0.035 to 0.25%) that are most likely caused by openings of fractures due to dynamic stress transients (as small as 0.08 MPa and up to 0.45 MPa) from local and regional earthquakes. Depths of velocity changes are estimated to be about 0.5 to 1.5 km, similar to the depths of the injection and production wells. We derive an empirical in situ stress sensitivity of seismic velocity changes by relating velocity changes to dynamic stresses. We also observe systematic velocity reductions (0.04 to 0.05%) during earthquake swarms in mid-November 2009 and late-December 2010. On the basis of volumetric static and dynamic stress changes, the expected velocity reductions from the largest earthquakes with magnitude ranging from 3 to 4 in these swarms are less than 0.02%, which suggests that these earthquakes are likely not responsible for the velocity changes observed during the swarms. Instead, we argue that velocity reductions may have been induced by poroelastic opening of fractures due to aseismic deformation. We also observe a long-term velocity increase (~0.04%/year) that is most likely due to poroelastic contraction caused by the geothermal production. Our observations demonstrate that seismic interferometry provides insights into in situ reservoir response to stress changes.
Tullis, Terry. E.; Richards-Dinger, Keith B.; Barall, Michael; Dieterich, James H.; Field, Edward H.; Heien, Eric M.; Kellogg, Louise; Pollitz, Fred F.; Rundle, John B.; Sachs, Michael K.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Ward, Steven N.; Yikilmaz, M. Burak
In order to understand earthquake hazards we would ideally have a statistical description of earthquakes for tens of thousands of years. Unfortunately the ∼100‐year instrumental, several 100‐year historical, and few 1000‐year paleoseismological records are woefully inadequate to provide a statistically significant record. Physics‐based earthquake simulators can generate arbitrarily long histories of earthquakes; thus they can provide a statistically meaningful history of simulated earthquakes. The question is, how realistic are these simulated histories? This purpose of this paper is to begin to answer that question. We compare the results between different simulators and with information that is known from the limited instrumental, historic, and paleoseismological data.As expected, the results from all the simulators show that the observational record is too short to properly represent the system behavior; therefore, although tests of the simulators against the limited observations are necessary, they are not a sufficient test of the simulators’ realism. The simulators appear to pass this necessary test. In addition, the physics‐based simulators show similar behavior even though there are large differences in the methodology. This suggests that they represent realistic behavior. Different assumptions concerning the constitutive properties of the faults do result in enhanced capabilities of some simulators. However, it appears that the similar behavior of the different simulators may result from the fault‐system geometry, slip rates, and assumed strength drops, along with the shared physics of stress transfer.This paper describes the results of running four earthquake simulators that are described elsewhere in this issue of Seismological Research Letters. The simulators ALLCAL (Ward, 2012), VIRTCAL (Sachs et al., 2012), RSQSim (Richards‐Dinger and Dieterich, 2012), and ViscoSim (Pollitz, 2012) were run on our most recent all‐California fault
Field, Edward H.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David D.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin R.; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Thomas; Powers, Peter M.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J.; Zeng, Yuehua; ,
In this report we present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes in California. The primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multifault ruptures, both limitations of the previous model (UCERF2). The rates of all earthquakes are solved for simultaneously, and from a broader range of data, using a system-level "grand inversion" that is both conceptually simple and extensible. The inverse problem is large and underdetermined, so a range of models is sampled using an efficient simulated annealing algorithm. The approach is more derivative than prescriptive (for example, magnitude-frequency distributions are no longer assumed), so new analysis tools were developed for exploring solutions. Epistemic uncertainties were also accounted for using 1,440 alternative logic tree branches, necessitating access to supercomputers. The most influential uncertainties include alternative deformation models (fault slip rates), a new smoothed seismicity algorithm, alternative values for the total rate of M≥5 events, and different scaling relationships, virtually all of which are new. As a notable first, three deformation models are based on kinematically consistent inversions of geodetic and geologic data, also providing slip-rate constraints on faults previously excluded because of lack of geologic data. The grand inversion constitutes a system-level framework for testing hypotheses and balancing the influence of different experts. For example, we demonstrate serious challenges with the Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis for individual faults. UCERF3 is still an approximation of the system, however, and the range of models is limited (for example, constrained to stay close to UCERF2). Nevertheless, UCERF3 removes the apparent UCERF2 overprediction of
J. B. Fletcher
Full Text Available he M 7.4 Landers earthquake triggered widespread seismicity in the Western U.S. Because the transient dynamic stresses induced at regional distances by the Landers surface waves are much larger than the expected static stresses, the magnitude and the characteristics of the dynamic stresses may bear upon the earthquake triggering mechanism. The Landers earthquake was recorded on the UPSAR array, a group of 14 triaxial accelerometers located within a 1-square-km region 10 km southwest of the town of Parkfield, California, 412 km northwest of the Landers epicenter. We used a standard geodetic inversion procedure to determine the surface strain and stress tensors as functions of time from the observed dynamic displacements. Peak dynamic strains and stresses at the Earth's surface are about 7 microstrain and 0.035 MPa, respectively, and they have a flat amplitude spectrum between 2 s and 15 s period. These stresses agree well with stresses predicted from a simple rule of thumb based upon the ground velocity spectrum observed at a single station. Peak stresses ranged from about 0.035 MPa at the surface to about 0.12 MPa between 2 and 14 km depth, with the sharp increase of stress away from the surface resulting from the rapid increase of rigidity with depth and from the influence of surface wave mode shapes. Comparison of Landers-induced static and dynamic stresses at the hypocenter of the Big Bear aftershock provides a clear example that faults are stronger on time scales of tens of seconds than on time scales of hours or longer.
Mavko, Gerald M.; Schulz, Sandra; Brown, Beth D.
The M//L approximately equals 6. 5 earthquake that occurred near Coalinga, California, on May 2, 1983 induced changes in near-surface fault slip along the San Andreas fault. Coseismic steps were observed by creepmeters along a 200-km section of the San Andreas. some of the larger aftershocks induced additional steps, both right-lateral and left-lateral, and in general the sequence disrupted observed creep at several sites from preseismic long-term patterns. Static dislocation models can approximately explain the magnitudes and distribution of the larger coseismic steps on May 2. The smaller, more distant steps appear to be the abrupt release of accumulated slip, triggered by the coseismic strain changes, but independent of the strain change amplitudes.
Raharja, Danang S.; Hadiwardoyo, Sigit P.; Rahayu, Wiwik; Zain, Nasuhi
Geopolymer is binder material that consists of solid material and the activator solution. Geopolymer material has successfully replaced cement in the manufacture of concrete with aluminosilicate bonding system. Geopolymer concrete has properties similar to cement concrete with high compressive strength, low shrinkage value, relatively low creep value, as well as acid-resistant. Based on these, the addition of polymers in peat soils is expected to improve the bearing capacity of peat soils. A study on the influence of geopolymer addition in peat soils was done by comparing before and after the peat soil was mixed with geopolymer using CBR (California Bearing Ratio) test in unsoaked and soaked conditions. 10% mixture content of the peat dry was used, weighted with a variety of curing time 4 hours, 5 days, and 10 days. There were two methods of mixing: first, peat was mixed with fly ash geopolymer activators and mixed solution (waterglass, NaOH, water), and second, peat was mixed with fly ash and mixed geopolymer (waterglass, NaOH, water, fly ash). Changes were observed in specific gravity, dry density, acidity (pH), and the microscopic structure with Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). Curing time did not significantly affect the CBR value. It even shows a tendency to decline with longer curing time. The first type mixture obtained CBR value of: 5.4% for 4 hours curing, 4.6% for 5 days curing and 3.6% for 10 days curing. The second type mixture obtained CBR value of: 6.1% for 4 hours curing, 5.2% for 5 days curing and 5.2% for 10 days curing. Furthermore, the specific gravity value, dry density, pH near neutral and swelling percentage increased. From both variants, the second type mixture shows better results than the first type mixture. The results of SEM (Scanning Electron Microscopy) show the structure of the peat which became denser with the fly ash particles filling the peat microporous. Also, the reaction of fly ash with geopolymer is indicated by the solid
Mellors, R.J.; Magistrale, H.; Earle, P.; Cogbill, A.H.
Source parameters determined from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) measurements and from seismic data are compared from four moderate-size (less than M 6) earthquakes in southern California. The goal is to verify approximate detection capabilities of InSAR, assess differences in the results, and test how the two results can be reconciled. First, we calculated the expected surface deformation from all earthquakes greater than magnitude 4 in areas with available InSAR data (347 events). A search for deformation from the events in the interferograms yielded four possible events with magnitudes less than 6. The search for deformation was based on a visual inspection as well as cross-correlation in two dimensions between the measured signal and the expected signal. A grid-search algorithm was then used to estimate focal mechanism and depth from the InSAR data. The results were compared with locations and focal mechanisms from published catalogs. An independent relocation using seismic data was also performed. The seismic locations fell within the area of the expected rupture zone for the three events that show clear surface deformation. Therefore, the technique shows the capability to resolve locations with high accuracy and is applicable worldwide. The depths determined by InSAR agree with well-constrained seismic locations determined in a 3D velocity model. Depth control for well-imaged shallow events using InSAR data is good, and better than the seismic constraints in some cases. A major difficulty for InSAR analysis is the poor temporal coverage of InSAR data, which may make it impossible to distinguish deformation due to different earthquakes at the same location.
Full Text Available The paper aimed at the determination of the California Bearing Ratio of a stabilised and unstabilised fine-grained mineral soil. A clayey-sandy silt with the addition of 3, 6 and 10% of road stabilisers Solidex and Solidex A was used for the tests. The tests were carried out in the press Tritech 50 at the loading of 22 and 44 N. The stabilised samples were subjected to 7-days treatment, whereas unstabilised 4-days treatment. Stabilization with the applied road binders brought positive effects, there occurred a significant improvement in the mechanical properties of the clayey-sandy silt. The better binder, which significantly increased the value of the CBR ratio, was Solidex A. The use of hydraulic binders is of a great importance in road building, because their addition improves the mechanical properties of weaker mineral soils.
Volume 2 of the ''Survey of Strong Motion Earthquake Effects on Thermal Power Plants in California with Emphasis on Piping Systems'' contains Appendices which detail the detail design and seismic response of several power plants subjected to strong motion earthquakes. The particular plants considered include the Ormond Beach, Long Beach and Seal Beach, Burbank, El Centro, Glendale, Humboldt Bay, Kem Valley, Pasadena and Valley power plants. Included is a typical power plant piping specification and photographs of typical power plant piping specification and photographs of typical piping and support installations for the plants surveyed. Detailed piping support spacing data are also included
This publication briefly presents the characteristics of an earthquake which occurred in California in August 2014, indicates some data recorded by local seismic stations, and gives a brief overview of human and economic damages. It analyses the geological location of the earthquake, recalls previous events and outlines the local seismic risk. After having noticed that there was no consequence for the closest nuclear power station (300 km away), it indicates lessons learned in terms of seismic event about a crack, in order to better assess the risk of surface failure
Howle, J.; Bawden, G. W.; Schweickert, R. A.; Hunter, L. E.; Rose, R.
Utilizing high-resolution bare-earth LiDAR topography, field observations, and earlier results of Howle et al. (2012), we estimate latest Pleistocene/Holocene earthquake-recurrence intervals, propose scenarios for earthquake-rupture segmentation, and estimate potential earthquake moment magnitudes for the Tahoe-Sierra frontal fault zone (TSFFZ), west of Lake Tahoe, California. We have developed a new technique to estimate the vertical separation for the most recent and the previous ground-rupturing earthquakes at five sites along the Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments of the TSFFZ. At these sites are fault scarps with two bevels separated by an inflection point (compound fault scarps), indicating that the cumulative vertical separation (VS) across the scarp resulted from two events. This technique, modified from the modeling methods of Howle et al. (2012), uses the far-field plunge of the best-fit footwall vector and the fault-scarp morphology from high-resolution LiDAR profiles to estimate the per-event VS. From this data, we conclude that the adjacent and overlapping Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments have ruptured coseismically twice during the Holocene. The right-stepping, en echelon range-front segments of the TSFFZ show progressively greater VS rates and shorter earthquake-recurrence intervals from southeast to northwest. Our preliminary estimates suggest latest Pleistocene/ Holocene earthquake-recurrence intervals of 4.8±0.9x103 years for a coseismic rupture of the Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments, located at the southeastern end of the TSFFZ. For the Rubicon Peak segment, northwest of the Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments, our preliminary estimate of the maximum earthquake-recurrence interval is 2.8±1.0x103 years, based on data from two sites. The correspondence between high VS rates and short recurrence intervals suggests that earthquake sequences along the TSFFZ may initiate in the northwest part of the zone and then occur to the southeast with a lower
Dodge, D.A.; Beroza, G.C.; Ellsworth, W.L.
We find that foreshocks provide clear evidence for an extended nucleation process before some earthquakes. In this study, we examine in detail the evolution of six California foreshock sequences, the 1986 Mount Lewis (ML, = 5.5), the 1986 Chalfant (ML = 6.4), the. 1986 Stone Canyon (ML = 4.7), the 1990 Upland (ML = 5.2), the 1992 Joshua Tree (MW= 6.1), and the 1992 Landers (MW = 7.3) sequence. Typically, uncertainties in hypocentral parameters are too large to establish the geometry of foreshock sequences and hence to understand their evolution. However, the similarity of location and focal mechanisms for the events in these sequences leads to similar foreshock waveforms that we cross correlate to obtain extremely accurate relative locations. We use these results to identify small-scale fault zone structures that could influence nucleation and to determine the stress evolution leading up to the mainshock. In general, these foreshock sequences are not compatible with a cascading failure nucleation model in which the foreshocks all occur on a single fault plane and trigger the mainshock by static stress transfer. Instead, the foreshocks seem to concentrate near structural discontinuities in the fault and may themselves be a product of an aseismic nucleation process. Fault zone heterogeneity may also be important in controlling the number of foreshocks, i.e., the stronger the heterogeneity, the greater the number of foreshocks. The size of the nucleation region, as measured by the extent of the foreshock sequence, appears to scale with mainshock moment in the same manner as determined independently by measurements of the seismic nucleation phase. We also find evidence for slip localization as predicted by some models of earthquake nucleation. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.
Materna, K.; Taira, T.; Burgmann, R.
The Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ), at the transition point between the San Andreas fault system, the Mendocino Transform Fault, and the Cascadia Subduction Zone, undergoes rapid tectonic deformation and produces more large (M>6.0) earthquakes than any region in California. Most of the active faults of the triple junction are located offshore, making it difficult to characterize both seismic slip and aseismic creep. In this work, we study aseismic creep rates near the MTJ using characteristically repeating earthquakes (CREs) as indicators of creep rate. CREs are generally interpreted as repeated failures of the same seismic patch within an otherwise creeping fault zone; as a consequence, the magnitude and recurrence time of the CREs can be used to determine a fault's creep rate through empirically calibrated scaling relations. Using seismic data from 2010-2016, we identify CREs as recorded by an array of eight 100-Hz PBO borehole seismometers deployed in the Cape Mendocino area. For each event pair with epicenters less than 30 km apart, we compute the cross-spectral coherence of 20 seconds of data starting one second before the P-wave arrival. We then select pairs with high coherence in an appropriate frequency band, which is determined uniquely for each event pair based on event magnitude, station distance, and signal-to-noise ratio. The most similar events (with median coherence above 0.95 at two or more stations) are selected as CREs and then grouped into CRE families, and each family is used to infer a local creep rate. On the Mendocino Transform Fault, we find relatively high creep rates of >5 cm/year that increase closer to the Gorda Ridge. Closer to shore and to the MTJ itself, we find many families of repeaters on and off the transform fault with highly variable creep rates, indicative of the complex deformation that takes place there.
Hartzell, S.; Liu, P.; Mendoza, C.; Ji, C.; Larson, K.M.
The 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake is used to investigate stability and uncertainty aspects of the finite-fault slip inversion problem with different a priori model assumptions. We utilize records from 54 strong ground motion stations and 13 continuous, 1-Hz sampled, geodetic instruments. Two inversion procedures are compared: a linear least-squares subfault-based methodology and a nonlinear global search algorithm. These two methods encompass a wide range of the different approaches that have been used to solve the finite-fault slip inversion problem. For the Parkfield earthquake and the inversion of velocity or displacement waveforms, near-surface related site response (top 100 m, frequencies above 1 Hz) is shown to not significantly affect the solution. Results are also insensitive to selection of slip rate functions with similar duration and to subfault size if proper stabilizing constraints are used. The linear and nonlinear formulations yield consistent results when the same limitations in model parameters are in place and the same inversion norm is used. However, the solution is sensitive to the choice of inversion norm, the bounds on model parameters, such as rake and rupture velocity, and the size of the model fault plane. The geodetic data set for Parkfield gives a slip distribution different from that of the strong-motion data, which may be due to the spatial limitation of the geodetic stations and the bandlimited nature of the strong-motion data. Cross validation and the bootstrap method are used to set limits on the upper bound for rupture velocity and to derive mean slip models and standard deviations in model parameters. This analysis shows that slip on the northwestern half of the Parkfield rupture plane from the inversion of strong-motion data is model dependent and has a greater uncertainty than slip near the hypocenter.
Field, Edward; Milner, Kevin R.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Page, Morgan T.; van der Elst, Nicholas; Jordan, Thomas H.; Michael, Andrew J.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Werner, Maximillan J.
We, the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, present a spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) component to the previously published time‐independent and long‐term time‐dependent forecasts. This combined model, referred to as UCERF3‐ETAS, collectively represents a relaxation of segmentation assumptions, the inclusion of multifault ruptures, an elastic‐rebound model for fault‐based ruptures, and a state‐of‐the‐art spatiotemporal clustering component. It also represents an attempt to merge fault‐based forecasts with statistical seismology models, such that information on fault proximity, activity rate, and time since last event are considered in OEF. We describe several unanticipated challenges that were encountered, including a need for elastic rebound and characteristic magnitude–frequency distributions (MFDs) on faults, both of which are required to get realistic triggering behavior. UCERF3‐ETAS produces synthetic catalogs of M≥2.5 events, conditioned on any prior M≥2.5 events that are input to the model. We evaluate results with respect to both long‐term (1000 year) simulations as well as for 10‐year time periods following a variety of hypothetical scenario mainshocks. Although the results are very plausible, they are not always consistent with the simple notion that triggering probabilities should be greater if a mainshock is located near a fault. Important factors include whether the MFD near faults includes a significant characteristic earthquake component, as well as whether large triggered events can nucleate from within the rupture zone of the mainshock. Because UCERF3‐ETAS has many sources of uncertainty, as
Drew, M L; Jessup, D A; Burr, A A; Franti, C E
A retrospective analysis of brucellosis serologic testing results in eight wildlife species in California from 1977 to 1989 was done. Samples were collected from 5,398 live-captured or hunter-killed animals and tested by combinations of up to six serologic tests for antibodies to Brucella spp. Twenty-three of 611 (3.8%) feral swine (Sus scrofa), one of 180 (0.6%) black bear (Ursus americanus), one of 355 (0.3%) California mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus californicus), and one of 1,613 (0.06%) blacktail deer (Odocoileus hemionus columbianus) samples were considered reactors. Suspect serologic reactions occurred in three of 619 (0.5%) desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) and one of 355 (0.3%) California mule deer samples. Brucellosis is not considered an important wildlife health problem in California except in feral swine.
Ouillon, G.; Sornette, D.; Ribeiro, E.
The Multifractal Stress-Activated model is a statistical model of triggered seismicity based on mechanical and thermodynamic principles. It predicts that, above a triggering magnitude cut-off M0, the exponent p of the Omori law for the time decay of the rate of aftershocks is a linear increasing function p(M) = a0M + b0 of the main shock magnitude M. We previously reported empirical support for this prediction, using the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) catalogue. Here, we confirm this observation using an updated, longer version of the same catalogue, as well as new methods to estimate p. One of this methods is the newly defined Scaling Function Analysis (SFA), adapted from the wavelet transform. This method is able to measure a mathematical singularity (hence a p-value), erasing the possible regular part of a time-series. The SFA also proves particularly efficient to reveal the coexistence and superposition of several types of relaxation laws (typical Omori sequences and short-lived swarms sequences) which can be mixed within the same catalogue. Another new method consists in monitoring the largest aftershock magnitude observed in successive time intervals, and thus shortcuts the problem of missing events with small magnitudes in aftershock catalogues. The same methods are used on data from the worldwide Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalogue and show results compatible with those of Southern California. For the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) catalogue, we still observe a linear dependence of p on M, but with a smaller slope. The SFA shows however that results for this catalogue may be biased by numerous swarm sequences, despite our efforts to remove them before the analysis.
Li, Z.; Yang, H.; Peng, Z.; Ben-Zion, Y.; Vernon, F.
Natural fault zones have regions of brittle damage leading to a low-velocity zone (LVZ) in the immediate vicinity of the main fault interface. The LVZ may amplify ground motion, modify rupture propagation, and impact derivation of earthquke properties. Here we image low-velocity fault zone structures along the San Jacinto Fault (SJF), southern California, using waveforms of local earthquakes that are recorded at several dense arrays across the SJFZ. We use generalized ray theory to compute synthetic travel times to track the direct and FZ-reflected waves bouncing from the FZ boundaries. This method can effectively reduce the trade-off between FZ width and velocity reduction relative to the host rock. Our preliminary results from travel time modeling show the clear signature of LVZs along the SJF, including the segment of the Anza seismic gap. At the southern part near the trifrication area, the LVZ of the Clark Valley branch (array JF) has a width of ~200 m with ~55% reduction in Vp and Vs. This is consistent with what have been suggested from previous studies. In comparison, we find that the velocity reduction relative to the host rock across the Anza seismic gap (array RA) is ~50% for both Vp and Vs, nearly as prominent as that on the southern branches. The width of the LVZ is ~230 m. In addition, the LVZ across the Anza gap appears to locate in the northeast side of the RA array, implying potential preferred propagation direction of past ruptures.
Behr, Y.; Cua, G. B.; Clinton, J. F.; Heaton, T. H.
The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method is a Bayesian approach to regional network-based earthquake early warning (EEW) originally formulated by Cua and Heaton (2007). Implementation of VS into real-time EEW codes has been an on-going effort of the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zürich since 2006, with support from ETH Zürich, various European projects, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS). VS is one of three EEW algorithms - the other two being ElarmS (Allen and Kanamori, 2003) and On-Site (Wu and Kanamori, 2005; Boese et al., 2008) algorithms - that form the basis of the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) ShakeAlert system, a USGS-funded prototype end-to-end EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. In Europe, VS is currently operating as a real-time test system in Switzerland. As part of the on-going EU project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real-Time Earthquake Risk Reduction), VS will be installed and tested at other European networks. VS has been running in real-time on stations of the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) since July 2008, and on stations of the Berkeley Digital Seismic Network (BDSN) and the USGS Menlo Park strong motion network in northern California since February 2009. In Switzerland, VS has been running in real-time on stations monitored by the Swiss Seismological Service (including stations from Austria, France, Germany, and Italy) since 2010. We present summaries of the real-time performance of VS in Switzerland and California over the past two and three years respectively. The empirical relationships used by VS to estimate magnitudes and ground motion, originally derived from southern California data, are demonstrated to perform well in northern California and Switzerland. Implementation in real-time and off-line testing in Europe will potentially be extended to southern Italy, western Greece, Istanbul, Romania, and Iceland. Integration of the VS algorithm into both the CISN Advanced
Reinforced concrete (r.c.) framed buildings designed in compliance with inadequate seismic classifications and code provisions present in many cases a high vulnerability and need to be retrofitted. To this end, the insertion of a base isolation system allows a considerable reduction of the seismic loads transmitted to the superstructure. However, strong near-fault ground motions, which are characterised by long-duration horizontal pulses, may amplify the inelastic response of the superstructure and induce a failure of the isolation system. The above considerations point out the importance of checking the effectiveness of different isolation systems for retrofitting a r.c. framed structure. For this purpose, a numerical investigation is carried out with reference to a six-storey r.c. framed building, which, primarily designed (as to be a fixed-base one) in compliance with the previous Italian code (DM96) for a medium-risk seismic zone, has to be retrofitted by insertion of an isolation system at the base for attaining performance levels imposed by the current Italian code (NTC08) in a high-risk seismic zone. Besides the (fixed-base) original structure, three cases of base isolation are studied: elastomeric bearings acting alone (e.g. HDLRBs); in-parallel combination of elastomeric and friction bearings (e.g. high-damping-laminated-rubber bearings, HDLRBs and steel-PTFE sliding bearings, SBs); friction bearings acting alone (e.g. friction pendulum bearings, FPBs). The nonlinear analysis of the fixed-base and base-isolated structures subjected to horizontal components of near-fault ground motions is performed for checking plastic conditions at the potential critical (end) sections of the girders and columns as well as critical conditions of the isolation systems. Unexpected high values of ductility demand are highlighted at the lower floors of all base-isolated structures, while re-centring problems of the base isolation systems under near-fault earthquakes are
Iqbal, F.; Kumar, A.; Murtaza, A.
Subgrade is a most important part of a pavement structure, which should have a reasonable stiffness modulus and shear strength. CBR (California Bearing Ratio) test is performed to evaluate stiffness modulus and shear strength of subgrade soils. However, CBR test is laborious and time consuming, particularly when soil is highly plastic like Jamshoro soil. In order to overcome this limitation, it may be appropriate to correlate CBR value of soil with its index properties like grain size analysis, Atterberg limits, and compaction characteristics such as MDD (Maximum Dry Density) and OMC (Optimum Moisture Content). This paper expresses the correlations between CBR value of Jamshoro soil and its index properties. SLRA (Single Linear Regression Analysis) and MLRA(Multiple Linear Regression) based Models were utilized. It is seen that MLRA gave better correlations up to R2 of about 0.984. It is observed that the Soaked CBR value can be predicted with confidence from LL (Liquid Limit), PI (Plasticity Index) and percent finer while the un-soaked CBR value can be obtained from LL, plasticity index and MDD. (author)
Full Text Available In order to better understand the mechanical properties of graded crushed rocks (GCRs and to optimize the relevant design, a numerical test method based on the particle flow modeling technique PFC2D is developed for the California bearing ratio (CBR test on GCRs. The effects of different testing conditions and micro-mechanical parameters used in the model on the CBR numerical results have been systematically studied. The reliability of the numerical technique is verified. The numerical results suggest that the influences of the loading rate and Poisson's ratio on the CBR numerical test results are not significant. As such, a loading rate of 1.0–3.0 mm/min, a piston diameter of 5 cm, a specimen height of 15 cm and a specimen diameter of 15 cm are adopted for the CBR numerical test. The numerical results reveal that the CBR values increase with the friction coefficient at the contact and shear modulus of the rocks, while the influence of Poisson's ratio on the CBR values is insignificant. The close agreement between the CBR numerical results and experimental results suggests that the numerical simulation of the CBR values is promising to help assess the mechanical properties of GCRs and to optimize the grading design. Besides, the numerical study can provide useful insights on the mesoscopic mechanism.
McNally, K C; Kanamori, H; Pechmann, J C; Fuis, G
Between November 1976 and November 1977 a swarm of small earthquakes (local magnitude foreshock sequences, such as tight clustering of hypocenters and time-dependent rotations of stress axes inferred from focal mechanisms. However, because of our present lack of understanding of the processes that precede earthquake faulting, the implications of the swarm for future large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault are unknown.
Castro, Raúl R.; Mendoza-Camberos, Antonio; Pérez-Vertti, Arturo
We estimated the radiated seismic energy (ES) of 65 earthquakes located in the south-central region of the Gulf of California. Most of these events occurred along active transform faults that define the Pacific-North America plate boundary and have magnitudes between M3.3 and M5.9. We corrected the spectral records for attenuation using nonparametric S-wave attenuation functions determined with the whole data set. The path effects were isolated from the seismic source using a spectral inversion. We computed radiated seismic energy of the earthquakes by integrating the square velocity source spectrum and estimated their apparent stresses. We found that most events have apparent stress between 3 × 10-4 and 3 MPa. Model independent estimates of the ratio between seismic energy and moment (ES/M0) indicates that this ratio is independent of earthquake size. We conclude that in general the apparent stress is low (σa < 3 MPa) in the south-central and southern Gulf of California.
Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.; Wein, Anne M.
The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis of economic Super Sectors in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage of the exposure of each Super Sector to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the direct effect of the scenario earthquake on economic sectors and provides a baseline for the indirect and interactive analysis of an input-output model of the regional economy. The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by the North American Industry Classification System. According to the analysis results, nearly 225,000 business
Çelebi, Mehmet; Ghahari, S. Farid; Taciroglu, Ertugrul
This paper reports the results of Part A of a study of the recorded strong-motion accelerations at the well-instrumented network of the two side-by-side parallel bridges over the Carquinez Strait during the 24 August 2014 (Mw6.0 ) South Napa, Calif. earthquake that occurred at 03:20:44 PDT with epicentral coordinates 38.22N, 122.31W. (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/poster/2014/20140824.php, last accessed on October 17, 2014). Both bridges and two boreholes were instrumented by the California Strong motion Instrumentation Program (CSMIP) of California Geological Survey (CGS) (Shakal et al., 2014). A comprehensive comparison of several ground motion prediction equations as they relate to recorded ground motions of the earthquake is provided by Baltay and Boatright (2015).
L. C. Breaker
Full Text Available Two of the largest earthquakes to affect water levels in Monterey Bay in recent years were the Loma Prieta Earthquake (LPE of 1989 with a moment magnitude of 6.9, and the Great Alaskan Earthquake (GAE of 1964 with a moment magnitude of 9.2. In this study, we compare the sea level response of these events with a primary focus on their frequency content and how the bay affected it, itself. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA was employed to extract the primary frequencies associated with each event. It is not clear how or exactly where the tsunami associated with the LPE was generated, but it occurred inside the bay and most likely began to take on the characteristics of a seiche by the time it reached the tide gauge in Monterey Harbor. Results of the SSA decomposition revealed two primary periods of oscillation, 9-10 minutes, and 31-32 minutes. The first oscillation is in agreement with the range of periods for the expected natural oscillations of Monterey Harbor, and the second oscillation is consistent with a bay-wide oscillation or seiche mode. SSA decomposition of the GAE revealed several sequences of oscillations all with a period of approximately 37 minutes, which corresponds to the predicted, and previously observed, transverse mode of oscillation for Monterey Bay. In this case, it appears that this tsunami produced quarter-wave resonance within the bay consistent with its seiche-like response. Overall, the sea level responses to the LPE and GAE differed greatly, not only because of the large difference in their magnitudes but also because the driving force in one case occurred inside the bay (LPE, and in the second, outside the bay (GAE. As a result, different modes of oscillation were excited.
Nakamura, Y.; Tucker, B. E.
In Japan, the level of public awareness of the dangers of earthquakes is high. The 1923 Kanto earthquake killed about 120,000 people out of a total Japanese population of about 50 million; an equivalent disaster in the U.S would involve 600,000 deaths.
Hammond, W. C.; Blewitt, G.
The Hilton Creek Fault, in Long Valley, California is a down-to-the-east normal fault that bounds the eastern edge of the Sierra Nevada/Great Valley microplate, and lies half inside and half outside the magmatically active caldera. Despite the dense coverage with GPS networks, the rapid and time-variable surface deformation attributable to sporadic magmatic inflation beneath the resurgent dome makes it difficult to use traditional geodetic methods to estimate the slip rate of the fault. While geologic studies identify cumulative offset, constrain timing of past earthquakes, and constrain a Quaternary slip rate to within 1-5 mm/yr, it is not currently possible to use geologic data to evaluate how the potential for slip correlates with transient caldera inflation. To estimate time-variable seismic hazard of the fault we estimate its instantaneous slip rate from GPS data using a new set of algorithms for robust estimation of velocity and strain rate fields and fault slip rates. From the GPS time series, we use the robust MIDAS algorithm to obtain time series of velocity that are highly insensitive to the effects of seasonality, outliers and steps in the data. We then use robust imaging of the velocity field to estimate a gridded time variable velocity field. Then we estimate fault slip rate at each time using a new technique that forms ad-hoc block representations that honor fault geometries, network complexity, connectivity, but does not require labor-intensive drawing of block boundaries. The results are compared to other slip rate estimates that have implications for hazard over different time scales. Time invariant long term seismic hazard is proportional to the long term slip rate accessible from geologic data. Contemporary time-invariant hazard, however, may differ from the long term rate, and is estimated from the geodetic velocity field that has been corrected for the effects of magmatic inflation in the caldera using a published model of a dipping ellipsoidal
Herring, K.S.; Rooney, V.; Chokshi, N.C.
On November 8, 1980, an earthquake of a reported surface wave magnitude of 7.0 occurred off the coast of California, west of Eureka and the Humboldt Bay Power Plant. Three NRC staff members visited the site the following week to survey any damage associated with the earthquake, with the objective of using collected data to assist the NRR staff in ongoing seismic evaluations of older operating nuclear power plant facilities. This report contains their observations. They concluded that the effects of the earthquake on Humboldt Bay Power Plant Unit 3 were minimal and did not endanger the health and safety of the public. They recommended that improvements be made to seismic recording equipment and that generic preparation for future post-earthquake reconnaissance trips be made before the actual occurrence of earthquakes
Field, Edward; Porter, Keith; Milner, Kevn
We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents the first earthquake forecast to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multi-fault ruptures, elastic-rebound, and spatiotemporal clustering, all of which seem important for generating realistic and useful aftershock statistics. UCERF3-ETAS is nevertheless an approximation of the system, however, so usefulness will vary and potential value needs to be ascertained in the context of each application. We examine this question with respect to statewide loss estimates, exemplifying how risk can be elevated by orders of magnitude due to triggered events following various scenario earthquakes. Two important considerations are the probability gains, relative to loss likelihoods in the absence of main shocks, and the rapid decay of gains with time. Significant uncertainties and model limitations remain, so we hope this paper will inspire similar analyses with respect to other risk metrics to help ascertain whether operationalization of UCERF3-ETAS would be worth the considerable resources required.
Zeng, Xiangfang; Thurber, Clifford H.; Shelly, David R.; Harrington, Rebecca M.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Bennington, Ninfa L.; Peterson, Dana; Guo, Bin; McClement, Kara
To refine the 3-D seismic velocity model in the greater Parkfield, California region, a new data set including regular earthquakes, shots, quarry blasts and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) was assembled. Hundreds of traces of each LFE family at two temporary arrays were stacked with time–frequency domain phase weighted stacking method to improve signal-to-noise ratio. We extend our model resolution to lower crustal depth with LFE data. Our result images not only previously identified features but also low velocity zones (LVZs) in the area around the LFEs and the lower crust beneath the southern Rinconada Fault. The former LVZ is consistent with high fluid pressure that can account for several aspects of LFE behaviour. The latter LVZ is consistent with a high conductivity zone in magnetotelluric studies. A new Vs model was developed with S picks that were obtained with a new autopicker. At shallow depth, the low Vs areas underlie the strongest shaking areas in the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. We relocate LFE families and analyse the location uncertainties with the NonLinLoc and tomoDD codes. The two methods yield similar results.
Xue, Lian; Bürgmann, Roland; Shelly, David R.; Johnson, Christopher W.; Taira, Taka'aki
Earthquake swarms represent a sudden increase in seismicity that may indicate a heterogeneous fault-zone, the involvement of crustal fluids and/or slow fault slip. Swarms sometimes precede major earthquake ruptures. An earthquake swarm occurred in October 2015 near San Ramon, California in an extensional right step-over region between the northern Calaveras Fault and the Concord-Mt. Diablo fault zone, which has hosted ten major swarms since 1970. The 2015 San Ramon swarm is examined here from 11 October through 18 November using template matching analysis. The relocated seismicity catalog contains ∼4000 events with magnitudes between - 0.2
Hauksson, Egill; Stock, Joann; Hutton, Kate; Yang, Wenzheng; Vidal-Villegas, J. Antonio; Kanamori, Hiroo
The El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake sequence started with a few foreshocks in March 2010, and a second sequence of 15 foreshocks of M > 2 (up to M4.4) that occurred during the 24 h preceding the mainshock. The foreshocks occurred along a north-south trend near the mainshock epicenter. The M w 7.2 mainshock on April 4 exhibited complex faulting, possibly starting with a ~M6 normal faulting event, followed ~15 s later by the main event, which included simultaneous normal and right-lateral strike-slip faulting. The aftershock zone extends for 120 km from the south end of the Elsinore fault zone north of the US-Mexico border almost to the northern tip of the Gulf of California. The waveform-relocated aftershocks form two abutting clusters, each about 50 km long, as well as a 10 km north-south aftershock zone just north of the epicenter of the mainshock. Even though the Baja California data are included, the magnitude of completeness and the hypocentral errors increase gradually with distance south of the international border. The spatial distribution of large aftershocks is asymmetric with five M5+ aftershocks located to the south of the mainshock, and only one M5.7 aftershock, but numerous smaller aftershocks to the north. Further, the northwest aftershock cluster exhibits complex faulting on both northwest and northeast planes. Thus, the aftershocks also express a complex pattern of stress release along strike. The overall rate of decay of the aftershocks is similar to the rate of decay of a generic California aftershock sequence. In addition, some triggered seismicity was recorded along the Elsinore and San Jacinto faults to the north, but significant northward migration of aftershocks has not occurred. The synthesis of the El Mayor-Cucapah sequence reveals transtensional regional tectonics, including the westward growth of the Mexicali Valley and the transfer of Pacific-North America plate motion from the Gulf of California in the south into the southernmost San
Schiff, Anshel J.
To the general public who had their televisions tuned to watch the World Series, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was a lifelines earthquake. It was the images seen around the world of the collapsed Cypress Street viaduct, with the frantic and heroic efforts to pull survivors from the structure that was billowing smoke; the collapsed section of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge and subsequent home video of a car plunging off the open span; and the spectacular fire in the Marina District of San Francisco fed by a broken gasline. To many of the residents of the San Francisco Bay region, the relation of lifelines to the earthquake was characterized by sitting in the dark because of power outage, the inability to make telephone calls because of network congestion, and the slow and snarled traffic. Had the public been aware of the actions of the engineers and tradespeople working for the utilities and other lifeline organizations on the emergency response and restoration of lifelines, the lifeline characteristics of this earthquake would have been even more significant. Unobserved by the public were the warlike devastation in several electrical-power substations, the 13 miles of gas-distribution lines that had to be replaced in several communities, and the more than 1,200 leaks and breaks in water mains and service connections that had to be excavated and repaired. Like the 1971 San Fernando, Calif., earthquake, which was a seminal event for activity to improve the earthquake performance of lifelines, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake demonstrated that the tasks of preparing lifelines in 'earthquake country' were incomplete-indeed, new lessons had to be learned.
Reasenberg, Paul A.
While the damaging effects of the earthquake represent a significant social setback and economic loss, the geophysical effects have produced a wealth of data that have provided important insights into the structure and mechanics of the San Andreas Fault system. Generally, the period after a large earthquake is vitally important to monitor. During this part of the seismic cycle, the primary fault and the surrounding faults, rock bodies, and crustal fluids rapidly readjust in response to the earthquake's sudden movement. Geophysical measurements made at this time can provide unique information about fundamental properties of the fault zone, including its state of stress and the geometry and frictional/rheological properties of the faults within it. Because postseismic readjustments are rapid compared with corresponding changes occurring in the preseismic period, the amount and rate of information that is available during the postseismic period is relatively high. From a geophysical viewpoint, the occurrence of the Loma Prieta earthquake in a section of the San Andreas fault zone that is surrounded by multiple and extensive geophysical monitoring networks has produced nothing less than a scientific bonanza. The reports assembled in this chapter collectively examine available geophysical observations made before and after the earthquake and model the earthquake's principal postseismic effects. The chapter covers four broad categories of postseismic effect: (1) aftershocks; (2) postseismic fault movements; (3) postseismic surface deformation; and (4) changes in electrical conductivity and crustal fluids.
Coordinated by Mileti, Dennis S.
Professional Paper 1553 describes how people and organizations responded to the earthquake and how the earthquake impacted people and society. The investigations evaluate the tools available to the research community to measure the nature, extent, and causes of damage and losses. They describe human behavior during and immediately after the earthquake and how citizens participated in emergency response. They review the challenges confronted by police and fire departments and disruptions to transbay transportations systems. And they survey the challenges of post-earthquake recovery. Some significant findings were: * Loma Prieta provided the first test of ATC-20, the red, yellow, and green tagging of buildings. It successful application has led to widespread use in other disasters including the September 11, 2001, New York City terrorist incident. * Most people responded calmly and without panic to the earthquake and acted to get themselves to a safe location. * Actions by people to help alleviate emergency conditions were proportional to the level of need at the community level. * Some solutions caused problems of their own. The police perimeter around the Cypress Viaduct isolated businesses from their customers leading to a loss of business and the evacuation of employees from those businesses hindered the movement of supplies to the disaster scene. * Emergency transbay ferry service was established 6 days after the earthquake, but required constant revision of service contracts and schedules. * The Loma Prieta earthquake produced minimal disruption to the regional economy. The total economic disruption resulted in maximum losses to the Gross Regional Product of $725 million in 1 month and $2.9 billion in 2 months, but 80% of the loss was recovered during the first 6 months of 1990. Approximately 7,100 workers were laid off.
Borcherdt, Rodger D.; Johnston, Malcolm J.S.; Dietel, Christopher; Glassmoyer, Gary; Myren, Doug; Stephens, Christopher
An integrated array of 11 General Earthquake Observation System (GEOS) stations installed near Parkfield, CA provided on scale broad-band, wide-dynamic measurements of acceleration and volumetric strain of the Parkfield earthquake (M 6.0) of September 28, 2004. Three component measurements of acceleration were obtained at each of the stations. Measurements of collocated acceleration and volumetric strain were obtained at four of the stations. Measurements of velocity at most sites were on scale only for the initial P-wave arrival. When considered in the context of the extensive set of strong-motion recordings obtained on more than 40 analog stations by the California Strong-Motion Instrumentation Program (Shakal, et al., 2004 http://www.quake.ca.gov/cisn-edc) and those on the dense array of Spudich, et al, (1988), these recordings provide an unprecedented document of the nature of the near source strong motion generated by a M 6.0 earthquake. The data set reported herein provides the most extensive set of near field broad band wide dynamic range measurements of acceleration and volumetric strain for an earthquake as large as M 6 of which the authors are aware. As a result considerable interest has been expressed in these data. This report is intended to describe the data and facilitate its use to resolve a number of scientific and engineering questions concerning earthquake rupture processes and resultant near field motions and strains. This report provides a description of the array, its scientific objectives and the strong-motion recordings obtained of the main shock. The report provides copies of the uncorrected and corrected data. Copies of the inferred velocities, displacements, and Psuedo velocity response spectra are provided. Digital versions of these recordings are accessible with information available through the internet at several locations: the National Strong-Motion Program web site (http://agram.wr.usgs.gov/), the COSMOS Virtual Data Center Web site
Shelly, David R.; Taira, Taka’aki; Prejean, Stephanie; Hill, David P.; Dreger, Douglas S.
Faulting and fluid transport in the subsurface are highly coupled processes, which may manifest seismically as earthquake swarms. A swarm in February 2014 beneath densely monitored Mammoth Mountain, California, provides an opportunity to witness these interactions in high resolution. Toward this goal, we employ massive waveform-correlation-based event detection and relative relocation, which quadruples the swarm catalog to more than 6000 earthquakes and produces high-precision locations even for very small events. The swarm's main seismic zone forms a distributed fracture mesh, with individual faults activated in short earthquake bursts. The largest event of the sequence, M 3.1, apparently acted as a fault valve and was followed by a distinct wave of earthquakes propagating ~1 km westward from the updip edge of rupture, 1–2 h later. Late in the swarm, multiple small, shallower subsidiary faults activated with pronounced hypocenter migration, suggesting that a broader fluid pressure pulse propagated through the subsurface.
Borcherdt, Roger D.
Strong ground motion generated by the Loma Prieta, Calif., earthquake (MS~7.1) of October 17, 1989, resulted in at least 63 deaths, more than 3,757 injuries, and damage estimated to exceed $5.9 billion. Strong ground motion severely damaged critical lifelines (freeway overpasses, bridges, and pipelines), caused severe damage to poorly constructed buildings, and induced a significant number of ground failures associated with liquefaction and landsliding. It also caused a significant proportion of the damage and loss of life at distances as far as 100 km from the epicenter. Consequently, understanding the characteristics of the strong ground motion associated with the earthquake is fundamental to understanding the earthquake's devastating impact on society. The papers assembled in this chapter address this problem. Damage to vulnerable structures from the earthquake varied substantially with the distance from the causative fault and the type of underlying geologic deposits. Most of the damage and loss of life occurred in areas underlain by 'soft soil'. Quantifying these effects is important for understanding the tragic concentrations of damage in such areas as Santa Cruz and the Marina and Embarcadero Districts of San Francisco, and the failures of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge and the Interstate Highway 880 overpass. Most importantly, understanding these effects is a necessary prerequisite for improving mitigation measures for larger earthquakes likely to occur much closer to densely urbanized areas in the San Francisco Bay region. The earthquake generated an especially important data set for understanding variations in the severity of strong ground motion. Instrumental strong-motion recordings were obtained at 131 sites located from about 6 to 175 km from the rupture zone. This set of recordings, the largest yet collected for an event of this size, was obtained from sites on various geologic deposits, including a unique set on 'soft soil' deposits
Schmidt, Kevin M.; Ellen, Stephen D.; Peterson, David M.
Damage to pavement and near-surface utility pipes, caused by the 17 October 1989, Loma Prieta earthquake, provides evidence for ground deformation in a 663 km2 area near the southwest margin of the Santa Clara Valley, California (USA). A total of 1427 damage sites, collected from more than 30 sources, are concentrated in four zones, three of which lie near previously mapped faults. In one of these zones, the channel lining of Los Gatos Creek, a 2-km-long concrete strip trending perpendicular to regional geologic structure, was broken by thrusts that were concentrated in two belts, each several tens of meters wide, separated by more than 300 m of relatively undeformed concrete.
Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Wilson, R. I.; Bahng, B.; Barberopoulou, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Brosnan, D.; Bwarie, J.; Geist, E. L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, S. H.; Knight, W.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, C. E.; Nicolsky, D.; Oglesby, D. D.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K. A.; Real, C. R.; Ryan, K. J.; Suleimani, E.; Thio, H. K.; Titov, V.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.
The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario models a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We present the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the tsunami scenario. The intended users are those who must make mitigation decisions before and rapid decisions during future tsunamis. Around a half million people would be present in the scenario's inundation area in residences, businesses, public venues, parks and beaches. Evacuation would likely be ordered for the State of California's maximum mapped tsunami inundation zone, evacuating an additional quarter million people from residences and businesses. Some island and peninsula communities would face particular evacuation challenges because of limited access options and short warning time, caused by the distance between Alaska and California. Evacuations may also be a challenge for certain dependent-care populations. One third of the boats in California's marinas could be damaged or sunk, costing at least 700 million in repairs to boats and docks, and potentially much more to address serious issues due to sediment transport and environmental contamination. Fires would likely start at many sites where fuel and petrochemicals are stored in ports and marinas. Tsunami surges and bores may travel several miles inland up coastal rivers. Debris clean-up and recovery of inundated and damaged areas will take days, months, or years depending on the severity of impacts and the available resources for recovery. The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (POLA/LB) would be shut down for a miniμm of two days due to strong currents. Inundation of dry land in the ports would result in 100 million damages to cargo and additional
Hauksson, Egill; Andrews, Jennifer; Plesch, Andreas; Shaw, John H.; Shelly, David R.
The 2015 Fillmore swarm occurred about 6 km west of the city of Fillmore in Ventura, California, and was located beneath the eastern part of the actively subsiding Ventura basin at depths from 11.8 to 13.8 km, similar to two previous swarms in the area. Template‐matching event detection showed that it started on 5 July 2015 at 2:21 UTC with an M∼1.0 earthquake. The swarm exhibited unusual episodic spatial and temporal migrations and unusual diversity in the nodal planes of the focal mechanisms as compared to the simple hypocenter‐defined plane. It was also noteworthy because it consisted of >1400 events of M≥0.0, with M 2.8 being the largest event. We suggest that fluids released by metamorphic dehydration processes, migration of fluids along a detachment zone, and cascading asperity failures caused this prolific earthquake swarm, but other mechanisms (such as simple mainshock–aftershock stress triggering or a regional aseismic creep event) are less likely. Dilatant strengthening may be a mechanism that causes the temporal decay of the swarm as pore‐pressure drop increased the effective normal stress, and counteracted the instability driving the swarm.
Hartzell, S.; Carver, D.; Williams, R.A.
Aftershock records of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are used to calculate site response in the frequency band of 0.5-10 Hz at 24 locations in Los Gatos, California, on the edge of the Santa Clara Valley. Two different methods are used: spectral ratios relative to a reference site on rock and a source/site spectral inversion method. These two methods complement each other and give consistent results. Site amplification factors are compared with surficial geology, thickness of alluvium, shallow shear-wave velocity measurements, and ground deformation and structural damage resulting from the Loma Prieta earthquake. Higher values of site amplification are seen on Quaternary alluvium compared with older Miocene and Cretaceous units of Monterey and Franciscan Formation. However, other more detailed correlations with surficial geology are not evident. A complex pattern of alluvial sediment thickness, caused by crosscutting thrust faults, is interpreted as contributing to the variability in site response and the presence of spectral resonance peaks between 2 and 7 Hz at some sites. Within the range of our field measurements, there is a correlation between lower average shear-wave velocity of the top 30 m and 50% higher values of site amplification. An area of residential homes thrown from their foundations correlates with high site response. This damage may also have been aggravated by local ground deformation. Severe damage to commercial buildings in the business district, however, is attributed to poor masonry construction.
Lienkaemper, James J.; Baldwin, John N.; Turner, Robert; Sickler, Robert R.; Brown, Johnathan
We document evidence for surface-rupturing earthquakes (events) at two trench sites on the southern Green Valley fault, California (SGVF). The 75-80-km long dextral SGVF creeps ~1-4 mm/yr. We identify stratigraphic horizons disrupted by upward-flowering shears and in-filled fissures unlikely to have formed from creep alone. The Mason Rd site exhibits four events from ~1013 CE to the Present. The Lopes Ranch site (LR, 12 km to the south) exhibits three events from 18 BCE to Present including the most recent event (MRE), 1610 ±52 yr CE (1σ) and a two-event interval (18 BCE-238 CE) isolated by a millennium of low deposition. Using Oxcal to model the timing of the 4-event earthquake sequence from radiocarbon data and the LR MRE yields a mean recurrence interval (RI or μ) of 199 ±82 yr (1σ) and ±35 yr (standard error of the mean), the first based on geologic data. The time since the most recent earthquake (open window since MRE) is 402 yr ±52 yr, well past μ~200 yr. The shape of the probability density function (pdf) of the average RI from Oxcal resembles a Brownian Passage Time (BPT) pdf (i.e., rather than normal) that permits rarer longer ruptures potentially involving the Berryessa and Hunting Creek sections of the northernmost GVF. The model coefficient of variation (cv, σ/μ) is 0.41, but a larger value (cv ~0.6) fits better when using BPT. A BPT pdf with μ of 250 yr and cv of 0.6 yields 30-yr rupture probabilities of 20-25% versus a Poisson probability of 11-17%.
Maloney, J. M.; Noble, P. J.; Driscoll, N. W.; Kent, G.; Schmauder, G. C.
High-resolution seismic CHIRP data can image direct evidence of earthquakes (i.e., offset strata) beneath lakes and the ocean. Nevertheless, direct evidence often is not imaged due to conditions such as gas in the sediments, or steep basement topography. In these cases, indirect evidence for earthquakes (i.e., debris flows) may provide insight into the paleoseismic record. The four sub-basins of the tectonically active Lake Tahoe Basin provide an ideal opportunity to image direct evidence for earthquake deformation and compare it to indirect earthquake proxies. We present results from high-resolution seismic CHIRP surveys in Emerald Bay, Fallen Leaf Lake, and Cascade Lake to constrain the recurrence interval on the West Tahoe Dollar Point Fault (WTDPF), which was previously identified as potentially the most hazardous fault in the Lake Tahoe Basin. Recently collected CHIRP profiles beneath Fallen Leaf Lake image slide deposits that appear synchronous with slides in other sub-basins. The temporal correlation of slides between multiple basins suggests triggering by events on the WTDPF. If correct, we postulate a recurrence interval for the WTDPF of ~3-4 k.y., indicating that the WTDPF is near its seismic recurrence cycle. In addition, CHIRP data beneath Cascade Lake image strands of the WTDPF that offset the lakefloor as much as ~7 m. The Cascade Lake data combined with onshore LiDAR allowed us to map the geometry of the WTDPF continuously across the southern Lake Tahoe Basin and yielded an improved geohazard assessment.
Hecker, S.; Schwartz, D. P.
The Bear River normal fault is located on the eastern margin of basin and range extension in the Rocky Mountains of Utah and Wyoming. Interpretation of paleoseismic data from three sites supports the conclusion of an earlier study (West, 1993) that the fault, which appears to have reactivated a thrust ramp in the Sevier orogenic belt, first ruptured to the surface in the late Holocene. Our observations provide evidence and additional age control for two previously identified large earthquakes ( 4500 and 3000 yr B.P.) and for a newly recognized earthquake that occurred c. 200-300 yr B.P. (after development of a topsoil above a deposit with a date of A.D. 1630 and before the beginning of the historical period in 1850). These earthquakes, which were likely high-stress-drop events, cumulatively produced about 6-8 m of net vertical displacement on a zone 40 km long and up to 5 km wide. The complexity and evolution of rupture at the south end of the fault, mapped in detail using airborne lidar imagery, is strongly influenced by interaction with the Uinta arch, an east-west-trending (orthogonal) basement-cored uplift. The relatively rapid flurry of strain release and high slip rate ( 2 mm/yr), which make the Bear River fault one of the most active in the Basin and Range, occurred in a region of low crustal extension (geodetic velocity of 7) that should be considered for seismic hazard analysis.
Shakal, A.; Graizer, V.; Huang, M.; Borcherdt, R.; Haddadi, H.; Lin, K.-W.; Stephens, C.; Roffers, P.
The Parkfield 2004 earthquake yielded the most extensive set of strong-motion data in the near-source region of a magnitude 6 earthquake yet obtained. The recordings of acceleration and volumetric strain provide an unprecedented document of the near-source seismic radiation for a moderate earthquake. The spatial density of the measurements alon g the fault zone and in the linear arrays perpendicular to the fault is expected to provide an exceptional opportunity to develop improved models of the rupture process. The closely spaced measurements should help infer the temporal and spatial distribution of the rupture process at much higher resolution than previously possible. Preliminary analyses of the peak a cceleration data presented herein shows that the motions vary significantly along the rupture zone, from 0.13 g to more than 2.5 g, with a map of the values showing that the larger values are concentrated in three areas. Particle motions at the near-fault stations are consistent with bilateral rupture. Fault-normal pulses similar to those observed in recent strike-slip earthquakes are apparent at several of the stations. The attenuation of peak ground acceleration with distance is more rapid than that indicated by some standard relationships but adequately fits others. Evidence for directivity in the peak acceleration data is not strong. Several stations very near, or over, the rupturing fault recorded relatively low accelerations. These recordings may provide a quantitative basis to understand observations of low near-fault shaking damage that has been reported in other large strike-slip earthquak.
Field, Edward; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David A.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Powers, Peter; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J.; Zeng, Yuehua
The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model, published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that solves applicability issues in the previous approach for un-segmented models. The new methodology also supports magnitude-dependent aperiodicity and accounts for the historic open interval on faults that lack a date-of-last-event constraint. Epistemic uncertainties are represented with a logic tree, producing 5,760 different forecasts. Results for a variety of evaluation metrics are presented, including logic-tree sensitivity analyses and comparisons to the previous model (UCERF2). For 30-year M≥6.7 probabilities, the most significant changes from UCERF2 are a threefold increase on the Calaveras fault and a threefold decrease on the San Jacinto fault. Such changes are due mostly to differences in the time-independent models (e.g., fault slip rates), with relaxation of segmentation and inclusion of multi-fault ruptures being particularly influential. In fact, some UCERF2 faults were simply too long to produce M 6.7 sized events given the segmentation assumptions in that study. Probability model differences are also influential, with the implied gains (relative to a Poisson model) being generally higher in UCERF3. Accounting for the historic open interval is one reason. Another is an effective 27% increase in the total elastic-rebound-model weight. The exact factors influencing differences between UCERF2 and UCERF3, as well as the relative importance of logic-tree branches, vary throughout the region, and depend on the evaluation metric of interest. For example, M≥6.7 probabilities may not be a good proxy for other hazard or loss measures. This sensitivity, coupled with the
Ryan, Holly F.; Conrad, James E.; Paull, C.K.; McGann, Mary
The San Diego trough fault zone (SDTFZ) is part of a 90-km-wide zone of faults within the inner California Borderland that accommodates motion between the Pacific and North American plates. Along with most faults offshore southern California, the slip rate and paleoseismic history of the SDTFZ are unknown. We present new seismic reflection data that show that the fault zone steps across a 5-km-wide stepover to continue for an additional 60 km north of its previously mapped extent. The 1986 Oceanside earthquake swarm is located within the 20-km-long restraining stepover. Farther north, at the latitude of Santa Catalina Island, the SDTFZ bends 20° to the west and may be linked via a complex zone of folds with the San Pedro basin fault zone (SPBFZ). In a cooperative program between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI), we measure and date the coseismic offset of a submarine channel that intersects the fault zone near the SDTFZ–SPBFZ junction. We estimate a horizontal slip rate of about 1:5 0:3 mm=yr over the past 12,270 yr.
Jaumé, S C; Sykes, L R
The April to June 1992 Landers earthquake sequence in southern California modified the state of stress along nearby segments of the San Andreas fault, causing a 50-kilometer segment of the fault to move significantly closer to failure where it passes through a compressional bend near San Gorgonio Pass. The decrease in compressive normal stress may also have reduced fluid pressures along that fault segment. As pressures are reequilibrated by diffusion, that fault segment should move closer to failure with time. That fault segment and another to the southeast probably have not ruptured in a great earthquake in about 300 years.
Le Grand (Outcalt 1925:526-528). Bear Creek may have served as a route to the Agua Fria area during the 1870s. If one, coming from Agua Frio (sic...shape representing the former location of a partly subsurface structure. IN SITU : In place; a term applied to archeological phenomena which are found in...covered back over and that the grave goods remain with the body. They are usually willing that in situ measurements, sketches, and photographs be made
Puji Hastuty, Ika; Roesyanto; Novia Sari, Intan; Simanjuntak, Oberlyn
Clay is a type of soil which is often used for stabilization. This is caused by its properties which are very hard in dry conditions and plastic in the medium content of water. However, at a higher level of water, clay will be cohesive and very lenient causing a large volume change due to the influence of water and also causing the soil to expand and shrink for a short period of time. These are the reasons why stabilization is needed in order to increase bearing capacity value of the clay. Stabilization is one of the ways to the conditon of soil that has the poor index properties, for example by adding chemical material to the soil. One of the chemical materials than can be added to the soil is calsium carbide residue. The purpose of this research is to know the fixation of index properties as the effect of adding 2% PC and calsium carbide residue to the clay, and to know the bearing capacity value of CBR (California Bearing Ratio) as the effect of adding the stabilization agent and to know the optimum content of adding calsium carbide residue. The result of the research shows that the usage of 2% cement in the soil that has CBR value 5,76%, and adding 2% cement and 9% calsium carbide residue with a period of curing 14 days has the lagerst of CBR value that is 9,95%. The unsoaked CBR value shows the increase of CBR value upto the mixture content of calsium carbide residue 9% and, decreases at the mixture content of calsium carbide residue 10% and 11%.
Harrington, Rebecca M.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Griffiths, Emily M.; Zeng, Xiangfang; Thurber, Clifford H.
Recent observations of low‐frequency earthquakes (LFEs) and tectonic tremor along the Parkfield–Cholame segment of the San Andreas fault suggest slow‐slip earthquakes occur in a transition zone between the shallow fault, which accommodates slip by a combination of aseismic creep and earthquakes (fault, which accommodates slip by stable sliding (>35 km depth). However, the spatial relationship between shallow earthquakes and LFEs remains unclear. Here, we present precise relocations of 34 earthquakes and 34 LFEs recorded during a temporary deployment of 13 broadband seismic stations from May 2010 to July 2011. We use the temporary array waveform data, along with data from permanent seismic stations and a new high‐resolution 3D velocity model, to illuminate the fine‐scale details of the seismicity distribution near Cholame and the relation to the distribution of LFEs. The depth of the boundary between earthquakes and LFE hypocenters changes along strike and roughly follows the 350°C isotherm, suggesting frictional behavior may be, in part, thermally controlled. We observe no overlap in the depth of earthquakes and LFEs, with an ∼5 km separation between the deepest earthquakes and shallowest LFEs. In addition, clustering in the relocated seismicity near the 2004 Mw 6.0 Parkfield earthquake hypocenter and near the northern boundary of the 1857 Mw 7.8 Fort Tejon rupture may highlight areas of frictional heterogeneities on the fault where earthquakes tend to nucleate.
Rymer, M.J.; Boatwright, J.; Seekins, L.C.; Yule, J.D.; Liu, J.
Surface fracturing occurred along the southern San Andreas, Superstition Hills, and Imperial faults in association with the 16 October 1999 (Mw 7.1) Hector Mine earthquake, making this at least the eighth time in the past 31 years that a regional earthquake has triggered slip along faults in the Salton Trough. Fractures associated with the event formed discontinuous breaks over a 39-km-long stretch of the San Andreas fault, from the Mecca Hills southeastward to Salt Creek and Durmid Hill, a distance from the epicenter of 107 to 139 km. Sense of slip was right lateral; only locally was there a minor (~1 mm) vertical component of slip. Dextral slip ranged from 1 to 13 mm. Maximum slip values in 1999 and earlier triggered slips are most common in the central Mecca Hills. Field evidence indicates a transient opening as the Hector Mine seismic waves passed the southern San Andreas fault. Comparison of nearby strong-motion records indicates several periods of relative opening with passage of the Hector Mine seismic wave-a similar process may have contributed to the field evidence of a transient opening. Slip on the Superstition Hills fault extended at least 9 km, at a distance from the Hector Mine epicenter of about 188 to 196 km. This length of slip is a minimum value, because we saw fresh surface breakage extending farther northwest than our measurement sites. Sense of slip was right lateral; locally there was a minor (~1 mm) vertical component of slip. Dextral slip ranged from 1 to 18 mm, with the largest amounts found distributed (or skewed) away from the Hector Mine earthquake source. Slip triggered on the Superstition Hills fault commonly is skewed away from the earthquake source, most notably in 1968, 1979, and 1999. Surface slip on the Imperial fault and within the Imperial Valley extended about 22 km, representing a distance from the Hector Mine epicenter of about 204 to 226 km. Sense of slip dominantly was right lateral; the right-lateral component of slip
in Equation 4 (Anderson 1983). One can see the variation to Equation 1 (McDaniel and Smith 1971). Collins and Molthan suggested the lower and upper...and the amount of drainage, as defined by a wetness index term ( Collins 1971; Molthan 1967). ERDC/GSL TN-16-1 March 2016 4 2 123 0 008 0 693 4...since its development in the 1940s. It was devised by Jim Porter ( 1 9 5 0 ) of the California Division of Highways. Porter developed curves showing the
Sanders, C O
Two lines of evidence suggest that large earthquakes that occur on either the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) or the San Andreas fault zone (SAFZ) may be triggered by large earthquakes that occur on the other. First, the great 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake in the SAFZ seems to have triggered a progressive sequence of earthquakes in the SJFZ. These earthquakes occurred at times and locations that are consistent with triggering by a strain pulse that propagated southeastward at a rate of 1.7 kilometers per year along the SJFZ after the 1857 earthquake. Second, the similarity in average recurrence intervals in the SJFZ (about 150 years) and in the Mojave segment of the SAFZ (132 years) suggests that large earthquakes in the northern SJFZ may stimulate the relatively frequent major earthquakes on the Mojave segment. Analysis of historic earthquake occurrence in the SJFZ suggests little likelihood of extended quiescence between earthquake sequences.
Since 1982, there has been a major effort expended to evaluate the susceptibility of nuclear Power plant equipment to failure and significant damage during seismic events. This was done by making use of data on the performance of electrical and mechanical equipment in conventional power plants and other similar industrial facilities during strong motion earthquakes. This report is intended as an extension of the seismic experience data collection effort and a compilation of experience data specific to power plant piping and supports designed and constructed US power piping code requirements which have experienced strong motion earthquakes. Eight damaging (Richter Magnitude 7.7 to 5.5) California earthquakes and their effects on 8 power generating facilities in use natural gas and California were reviewed. All of these facilities were visited and evaluated. Seven fossel-fueled (dual use natural gas and oil) and one nuclear fueled plants consisting of a total of 36 individual boiler or reactor units were investigated. Peak horizontal ground accelerations that either had been recorded on site at these facilities or were considered applicable to these power plants on the basis of nearby recordings ranged between 0.20g and 0.5lg with strong motion durations which varied from 3.5 to 15 seconds. Most US nuclear power plants are designed for a safe shutdown earthquake peak ground acceleration equal to 0.20g or less with strong motion durations which vary from 10 to 15 seconds
Kistler, R.W.; Dodge, F.C.W.; Silberman, M.L.
Gold-bearing vein formation in the Mother Lode belt of the study area apparently occurred during the Early Cretaceous between 127 and 108 m.y. B.P. The hydrothermal fluids that carried the gold precipitated quartz and mariposite at approx 320oC, similar to the T of precipitation of gold-bearing quartz veins in the Allegheny district. The O- and H-isotopic composition calculated for the fluid indicate that it was similar to formation water or was metamorphic in origin. If the carbonate in the veins was in isotopic equilibrium with this same fluid, it apparently precipitated at a higher T of approx 400oC. The Sr in the carbonate is much less radiogenic than that in any known marine carbonate, but is similar in isotopic composition to that in metamorphosed mafic volcanic rocks of the general region. These mafic rocks could have been the source for the Sr in the hydrothermal veins. This observation supports the contention that the gold-mariposite-quartz-carbonate rocks were formed as an alteration product of serpentinite and other mafic igneous rocks.-A.P.
Chen, Rui; Branum, David M.; Wills, Chris J.; Hill, David P.
As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) multi-hazards project in the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, the California Geological Survey (CGS) developed several earthquake scenarios and evaluated potential seismic hazards, including ground shaking, surface fault rupture, liquefaction, and landslide hazards associated with these earthquake scenarios. The results of these analyses can be useful in estimating the extent of potential damage and economic losses because of potential earthquakes and also for preparing emergency response plans.The Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area has numerous active faults. Five of these faults or fault zones are considered capable of producing magnitude ≥6.7 earthquakes according to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2) developed by the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) and the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program. These five faults are the Fish Slough, Hartley Springs, Hilton Creek, Mono Lake, and Round Valley Faults. CGS developed earthquake scenarios for these five faults in the study area and for the White Mountains Fault Zone to the east of the study area.In this report, an earthquake scenario is intended to depict the potential consequences of significant earthquakes. A scenario earthquake is not necessarily the largest or most damaging earthquake possible on a recognized fault. Rather it is both large enough and likely enough that emergency planners should consider it in regional emergency response plans. In particular, the ground motion predicted for a given scenario earthquake does not represent a full probabilistic hazard assessment, and thus it does not provide the basis for hazard zoning and earthquake-resistant building design.Earthquake scenarios presented here are based on fault geometry and activity data developed by the WGCEP, and are consistent with the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHM). Alternatives
Tajirian, F.F.; Gluekler, E.L.; Chen, W.P.; Kelly, J.M.
The Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) seismic isolation system consists of high damping steel-laminated elastomeric bearings. This type of bearing is used worldwide to isolate buildings and large critical components. A comprehensive testing program has been developed to qualify the use of this system for the ALMR. The program includes material characterization tests, various scale bearing tests, full-size bearing tests, shake table tests, and long-term aging tests. The main tasks and objectives of this program are described in the paper. Additionally, a detailed assessment of completed ALMR bearing test results will be provided. This assessment will be mainly based on half-scale bearing tests performed at the Earthquake Engineering Research Center (EERC) of the University of California at Berkeley and at the Energy Technology Engineering Center (ETEC). These tests were funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Both static and dynamic tests were performed. Bearings with two types of end connections were tested: dowelled and bolted. The parameters examined will include the vertical, horizontal stiffness and damping of the bearings under different loading conditions up to failure. This will determine the available margins in the bearings above the design vertical load and horizontal displacement. Additionally, the self-centering capability of the bearings after an earthquake will be addressed. On the basis of these findings, recommendations can be made if necessary, to improve current manufacturing procedures, quality control, and procurement specifications. (author)
Details of the M 4.3 foreshock to the Joshua Tree earthquake were studied using P waves recorded on the Southern California Seismic Network and the Anza network. Deconvolution, using an M 2.4 event as an empirical Green's function, corrected for complicated path and site effects in the seismograms and produced simple far-field displacement pulses that were inverted for a slip distribution. Both possible fault planes, north-south and east-west, for the focal mechanism were tested by a least-squares inversion procedure with a range of rupture velocities. The results showed that the foreshock ruptured the north-south plane, similar to the mainshock. The foreshock initiated a few hundred meters south of the mainshock and ruptured to the north, toward the mainshock hypocenter. The mainshock (M 6.1) initiated near the northern edge of the foreshock rupture 2 hr later. The foreshock had a high stress drop (320 to 800 bars) and broke a small portion of the fault adjacent to the mainshock but was not able to immediately initiate the mainshock rupture.
Klimasewski, A.; Sahakian, V. J.; Baltay, A.; Boatwright, J.; Fletcher, J. B.; Baker, L. M.
A large source of epistemic uncertainty in Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) is derived from the path term, currently represented as a simple geometric spreading and intrinsic attenuation term. Including additional physical relationships between the path properties and predicted ground motions would produce more accurate and precise, region-specific GMPEs by reclassifying some of the random, aleatory uncertainty as epistemic. This study focuses on regions of Southern California, using data from the Anza network and Southern California Seismic network to create a catalog of events magnitude 2.5 and larger from 1998 to 2016. The catalog encompasses regions of varying geology and therefore varying path and site attenuation. Within this catalog of events, we investigate several collections of event region-to-station pairs, each of which share similar origin locations and stations so that all events have similar paths. Compared with a simple regional GMPE, these paths consistently have high or low residuals. By working with events that have the same path, we can isolate source and site effects, and focus on the remaining residual as path effects. We decompose the recordings into source and site spectra for each unique event and site in our greater Southern California regional database using the inversion method of Andrews (1986). This model represents each natural log record spectra as the sum of its natural log event and site spectra, while constraining each record to a reference site or Brune source spectrum. We estimate a regional, path-specific anelastic attenuation (Q) and site attenuation (t*) from the inversion site spectra and corner frequency from the inversion event spectra. We then compute the residuals between the observed record data, and the inversion model prediction (event*site spectra). This residual is representative of path effects, likely anelastic attenuation along the path that varies from the regional median attenuation. We examine the
Madej, Mary Ann; Ozaki, V.
Regional high-magnitude rainstorms have produced several large floods in north coastal California during the last century, which resulted in extensive massmovement activity and channel aggradation. Channel monitoring in Redwood Creek, through the use of cross-sectional surveys, thalweg profi les, and pebble counts, has documented the persistence and routing of channel-stored sediment following these large floods in the 1960s and 1970s. Channel response varied on the basis of timing of peak aggradation. Channel-stored sediment was evacuated rapidly from the upstream third of the Redwood Creek channel, and the channel bed stabilized by 1985 as the bed coarsened. Currently only narrow remnants of flood deposits remain and are well vegetated. In the downstream reach, channel aggradation peaked in the 1990s, and the channel is still incising. Channel-bed elevations throughout the watershed showed an approximate exponential decrease with time, but decay rates were highest in areas with the thickest flood deposits. Pool frequencies and depths generally increased from 1977 to 1995, as did median residual water depths, but a 10 yr flood in 1997 resulted in a moderate reversal of this trend. Channel aggradation generated during 25 yr return interval floods has persisted in Redwood Creek for more than 30 yr and has impacted many life cycles of salmon. Watershed restoration work is currently focused on correcting erosion problems on hillslopes to reduce future sediment supply to Redwood Creek instead of attempting in-channel manipulations. ?? 2009 Geological Society of America.
The teleseismic long-period waveforms recorded by the Global Digital Seismograph Network from the two largest Superstition Hills earthquakes are inverted using an algorithm based on optimal filter theory. These solutions differ slightly from those published in the Preliminary Determination of Epicenters Monthly Listing because a somewhat different, improved data set was used in the inversions and a time-dependent moment-tensor algorithm was used to investigate the complexity of the main shock. The foreshock (origin time 01:54:14.5, mb 5.7, Ms6.2) had a scalar moment of 2.3 ?? 1025 dyne-cm, a depth of 8km, and a mechanism of strike 217??, dip 79??, rake 4??. The main shock (origin time 13:15:56.4, mb 6.0, Ms6.6) was a complex event, consisting of at least two subevents, with a combined scalar moment of 1.0 ?? 1026 dyne-cm, a depth of 10km, and a mechanism of strike 303??, dip 89??, rake -180??. -Authors
Savage, J.C.; Langbein, J.
An unusually complete set of measurements (including rapid rate GPS over the first 10 days) of postseismic deformation is available at 12 continuous GPS stations located close to the epicenter of the 2004 M6.0 Parkfield earthquake. The principal component modes for the relaxation of the ensemble of those 12 GPS stations were determined. The first mode alone furnishes an adequate approximation to the data. Thus, the relaxation at all stations can be represented by the product of a common temporal function and distinct amplitudes for each component (north or east) of relaxation at each station. The distribution in space of the amplitudes indicates that the relaxation is dominantly strike slip. The temporal function, which spans times from about 5 min to 900 days postearthquake, can be fit by a superposition of three creep terms, each of the form ??l loge(1 + t/??l), with characteristic times ??, = 4.06, 0.11, and 0.0001 days. It seems likely that what is actually involved is a broad spectrum of characteristic times, the individual components of which arise from afterslip on different fault patches. Perfettini and Avouac (2004) have shown that an individual creep term can be explained by the spring-slider model with rate-dependent (no state variable) friction. The observed temporal function can also be explained using a single spring-slider model (i.e., single fault patch) that includes rate-and-state-dependent friction, a single-state variable, and either of the two commonly used (aging and slip) state evolution laws. In the latter fits, the rate-and-state friction parameter b is negative.
Rockwell, T. K.
A long paleoseismic record at Hog Lake on the central San Jacinto fault (SJF) in southern California documents evidence for 18 surface ruptures in the past 3.8-4 ka. This yields a long-term recurrence interval of about 210 years, consistent with its slip rate of ~16 mm/yr and field observations of 3-4 m of displacement per event. However, during the past 3800 years, the fault has switched from a quasi-periodic mode of earthquake production, during which the recurrence interval is similar to the long-term average, to clustered behavior with the inter-event periods as short as a few decades. There are also some periods as long as 450 years during which there were no surface ruptures, and these periods are commonly followed by one to several closely-timed ruptures. The coefficient of variation (CV) for the timing of these earthquakes is about 0.6 for the past 4000 years (17 intervals). Similar behavior has been observed on the San Andreas Fault (SAF) south of the Transverse Ranges where clusters of earthquakes have been followed by periods of lower seismic production, and the CV is as high as 0.7 for some portions of the fault. In contrast, the central North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in Turkey, which ruptured in 1944, appears to have produced ruptures with similar displacement at fairly regular intervals for the past 1600 years. With a CV of 0.16 for timing, and close to 0.1 for displacement, the 1944 rupture segment near Gerede appears to have been both periodic and characteristic. The SJF and SAF are part of a broad plate boundary system with multiple parallel strands with significant slip rates. Additional faults lay to the east (Eastern California shear zone) and west (faults of the LA basin and southern California Borderland), which makes the southern SAF system a complex and broad plate boundary zone. In comparison, the 1944 rupture section of the NAF is simple, straight and highly localized, which contrasts with the complex system of parallel faults in southern
Hartzell, S.; Liu, P.; Mendoza, C.
A hybrid global search algorithm is used to solve the nonlinear problem of calculating slip amplitude, rake, risetime, and rupture time on a finite fault. Thirty-five strong motion velocity records are inverted by this method over the frequency band from 0.1 to 1.0 Hz for the Northridge earthquake. Four regions of larger-amplitude slip are identified: one near the hypocenter at a depth of 17 km, a second west of the hypocenter at about the same depth, a third updip from the hypocenter at a depth of 10 km, and a fourth updip from the hypocenter and to the northwest. The results further show an initial fast rupture with a velocity of 2.8 to 3.0 km/s followed by a slow termination of the rupture with velocities of 2.0 to 2.5 km/s. The initial energetic rupture phase lasts for 3 s, extending out 10 km from the hypocenter. Slip near the hypocenter has a short risetime of 0.5 s, which increases to 1.5 s for the major slip areas removed from the hypocentral region. The energetic rupture phase is also shown to be the primary source of high-frequency radiation (1-15 Hz) by an inversion of acceleration envelopes. The same global search algorithm is used in the envelope inversion to calculate high-frequency radiation intensity on the fault and rupture time. The rupture timing from the low- and high-frequency inversions is similar, indicating that the high frequencies are produced primarily at the mainshock rupture front. Two major sources of high-frequency radiation are identified within the energetic rupture phase, one at the hypocenter and another deep source to the west of the hypocenter. The source at the hypocenter is associated with the initiation of rupture and the breaking of a high-stress-drop asperity and the second is associated with stopping of the rupture in a westerly direction.
Page, Morgan T.; Mai, Paul Martin; Schorlemmer, Danijel
Source Inversion Validation Workshop; Palm Springs, California, 11-12 September 2010; Nowadays earthquake source inversions are routinely performed after large earthquakes and represent a key connection between recorded seismic and geodetic data
Hastuty, I. P.; Roesyanto, R.; Napitupulu, S. M. A.
Most areas in Indonesia consist of clay soils with high plasticity so that to meet technical requirements the soil needs improvement, which is known as soil stabilization.There are three ways of soil stabilization process, i.e. mechanical, physical and chemical. In this study, chemical stabilization was performed, that was by adding stabilizing agents to the soil. The stabilizing agent used was the ash of Mount Sinabung. Since 2010 until now, Sinabung Mountain is still experiencing eruption that produces a lot of volcanic ash and it inconveniences the environment. So, it is expected that this research will be able to optimize the utilization of Sinabung ash. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of the addition of Mount Sinabung ash to CBR (California Bearing Ratio) value, to determine the effect of the curing time of one day and fourteen days mixture on the CBR value, and to find the mixed content with effective curing time to produce the largest CBR value. Based on this study, the soil type CL (Clay - Low Plasticity) was obtained, based on the classification of USCS (Unified Soil Classification System) and categorized as A-6 (6) based on the classification of AASHTO (American Association of State Highway and Transportation officials) with the most effective mixed stabilizer material which was the variation of 10% Mount Sinabung ash with fourteen days of curing time. The CBR value resulted from the mixture of 10% Sinabung ash that was cured within fourteen days was 8.95%. By the increase of the content of the Sinabung ash, the CBR value always improved to the level of 10%, Sinabung ash then decreased and became constant at the mixture of higher volcanic ash mixture but remained above the CBR value of the original soil.
Perry, S.; Benthien, M.; Jordan, T. H.
The SCEC/UseIT internship program is training the next generation of earthquake scientist, with methods that can be adapted to other disciplines. UseIT interns work collaboratively, in multi-disciplinary teams, conducting computer science research that is needed by earthquake scientists. Since 2002, the UseIT program has welcomed 64 students, in some two dozen majors, at all class levels, from schools around the nation. Each summer''s work is posed as a ``Grand Challenge.'' The students then organize themselves into project teams, decide how to proceed, and pool their diverse talents and backgrounds. They have traditional mentors, who provide advice and encouragement, but they also mentor one another, and this has proved to be a powerful relationship. Most begin with fear that their Grand Challenge is impossible, and end with excitement and pride about what they have accomplished. The 22 UseIT interns in summer, 2005, were primarily computer science and engineering majors, with others in geology, mathematics, English, digital media design, physics, history, and cinema. The 2005 Grand Challenge was to "build an earthquake monitoring system" to aid scientists who must visualize rapidly evolving earthquake sequences and convey information to emergency personnel and the public. Most UseIT interns were engaged in software engineering, bringing new datasets and functionality to SCEC-VDO (Virtual Display of Objects), a 3D visualization software that was prototyped by interns last year, using Java3D and an extensible, plug-in architecture based on the Eclipse Integrated Development Environment. Other UseIT interns used SCEC-VDO to make animated movies, and experimented with imagery in order to communicate concepts and events in earthquake science. One movie-making project included the creation of an assessment to test the effectiveness of the movie''s educational message. Finally, one intern created an interactive, multimedia presentation of the UseIT program.
Spudich, P.; Hellweg, M.; Lee, W.H.K.
The Northridge earthquake caused 1.78 g acceleration in the east-west direction at a site in Tarzana, California, located about 6 km south of the mainshock epicenter. The accelerograph was located atop a hill about 15-m high, 500-m long, and 130-m wide, striking about N78??E. During the aftershock sequence, a temporary array of 21 three-component geophones was deployed in six radial lines centered on the accelerograph, with an average sensor spacing of 35 m. Station COO was located about 2 m from the accelerograph. We inverted aftershock spectra to obtain average relative site response at each station as a function of direction of ground motion. We identified a 3.2-Hz resonance that is a transverse oscillation of the hill (a directional topographic effect). The top/base amplification ratio at 3.2 Hz is about 4.5 for horizontal ground motions oriented approximately perpendicular to the long axis of the hill and about 2 for motions parallel to the hill. This resonance is seen most strongly within 50 m of COO. Other resonant frequencies were also observed. A strong lateral variation in attenuation, probably associated with a fault, caused substantially lower motion at frequencies above 6 Hz at the east end of the hill. There may be some additional scattered waves associated with the fault zone and seen at both the base and top of the hill, causing particle motions (not spectral ratios) at the top of the hill to be rotated about 20?? away from the direction transverse to the hill. The resonant frequency, but not the amplitude, of our observed topographic resonance agrees well with theory, even for such a low hill. Comparisons of our observations with theoretical results indicate that the 3D shape of the hill and its internal structure are important factors affecting its response. The strong transverse resonance of the hill does not account for the large east-west mainshock motions. Assuming linear soil response, mainshock east-west motions at the Tarzana accelerograph
Stein, Seth; Tomasello, Joseph; Newman, Andrew
Carl Sagan observed that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” In our view, A.D. Frankel's arguments (see accompanying Comment piece) do not reach the level required to demonstrate the counter-intuitive propositions that the earthquake hazard in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) is comparable to that in coastal California, and that buildings should be built to similar standards.This interchange is the latest in an ongoing debate beginning with Newman et al.'s [1999a] recommendation, based on analysis of Global Positioning System and earthquake data, that Frankel et al.'s  estimate of California-level seismic hazard for the NMSZ should be reduced. Most points at issue, except for those related to the costs and benefits of the proposed new International Building Code 2000, have already been argued at length by both sides in the literature [e.g.,Schweig et al., 1999; Newman et al., 1999b, 2001; Cramer, 2001]. Hence,rather than rehash these points, we will try here to provide readers not enmeshed in this morass with an overview of the primary differences between our view and that of Frankel.
Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.
The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards. In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report uses historical, estimated, and projected population data from several Federal and State data sources to estimate baseline characteristics and trends of the region's population migration (that is, changes in a person's place of residence over time). The analysis characterizes migration by various demographic, economic, family, and household variables for the period 1995-2000. It also uses existing estimates (beginning in 2001) of the three components of population change - births, deaths, and migration - to extrapolate near-term projections of county-level migration trends through 2010. The 2010 date was chosen to provide baseline projections corresponding to a two-year recovery period following the November 2008 date that was selected for the occurrence of the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake. The baseline characteristics and projections shall assist with evaluating the effects of inflow and outflow migration trends for alternative futures in which the simulated M7.8 earthquake either does or does not occur and the impact of the event on housing and jobs, as well as community composition and regional economy changes based on dispersion of intellectual, physical, economic, and cultural capital.
This report presents earthquake-induced water-level and fluid-pressure data for wells in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada, during June 1992. Three earthquakes occurred which caused significant water-level and fluid-pressure responses in wells. Wells USW H-5 and USW H-6 are continuously monitored to detect short-term responses caused by earthquakes. Two wells, monitored hourly, had significant, longer-term responses in water level following the earthquakes. On June 28, 1992, a 7.5-magnitude earthquake occurred near Landers, California causing an estimated maximum water-level change of 90 centimeters in well USW H-5. Three hours later a 6.6-magnitude earthquake occurred near Big Bear Lake, California; the maximum water-level fluctuation was 20 centimeters in well USW H-5. A 5.6-magnitude earthquake occurred at Little Skull Mountain, Nevada, on June 29, approximately 23 kilometers from Yucca Mountain. The maximum estimated short-term water-level fluctuation from the Little Skull Mountain earthquake was 40 centimeters in well USW H-5. The water level in well UE-25p number-sign 1, monitored hourly, decreased approximately 50 centimeters over 3 days following the Little Skull Mountain earthquake. The water level in UE-25p number-sign 1 returned to pre-earthquake levels in approximately 6 months. The water level in the lower interval of well USW H-3 increased 28 centimeters following the Little Skull Mountain earthquake. The Landers and Little Skull Mountain earthquakes caused responses in 17 intervals of 14 hourly monitored wells, however, most responses were small and of short duration. For several days following the major earthquakes, many smaller magnitude aftershocks occurred causing measurable responses in the continuously monitored wells
Melgar, Diego; Geng, Jianghui; Crowell, Brendan W.; Haase, Jennifer S.; Bock, Yehuda; Hammond, William C.; Allen, Richard M.
Real-time high-rate geodetic data have been shown to be useful for rapid earthquake response systems during medium to large events. The 2014 Mw6.1 Napa, California earthquake is important because it provides an opportunity to study an event at the lower threshold of what can be detected with GPS. We show the results of GPS-only earthquake source products such as peak ground displacement magnitude scaling, centroid moment tensor (CMT) solution, and static slip inversion. We also highlight the retrospective real-time combination of GPS and strong motion data to produce seismogeodetic waveforms that have higher precision and longer period information than GPS-only or seismic-only measurements of ground motion. We show their utility for rapid kinematic slip inversion and conclude that it would have been possible, with current real-time infrastructure, to determine the basic features of the earthquake source. We supplement the analysis with strong motion data collected close to the source to obtain an improved postevent image of the source process. The model reveals unilateral fast propagation of slip to the north of the hypocenter with a delayed onset of shallow slip. The source model suggests that the multiple strands of observed surface rupture are controlled by the shallow soft sediments of Napa Valley and do not necessarily represent the intersection of the main faulting surface and the free surface. We conclude that the main dislocation plane is westward dipping and should intersect the surface to the east, either where the easternmost strand of surface rupture is observed or at the location where the West Napa fault has been mapped in the past.
Heermance, Richard V.; Yule, Doug
The San Gorgonio Pass (SGP) in southern California contains a 40 km long region of structural complexity where the San Andreas Fault (SAF) bifurcates into a series of oblique-slip faults with unknown slip history. We combine new 10Be exposure ages (Qt4: 8600 (+2100, -2200) and Qt3: 5700 (+1400, -1900) years B.P.) and a radiocarbon age (1260 ± 60 years B.P.) from late Holocene terraces with scarp displacement of these surfaces to document a Holocene slip rate of 5.7 (+2.7, -1.5) mm/yr combined across two faults. Our preferred slip rate is 37-49% of the average slip rates along the SAF outside the SGP (i.e., Coachella Valley and San Bernardino sections) and implies that strain is transferred off the SAF in this area. Earthquakes here most likely occur in very large, throughgoing SAF events at a lower recurrence than elsewhere on the SAF, so that only approximately one third of SAF ruptures penetrate or originate in the pass.Plain Language SummaryHow large are earthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault? The answer to this question depends on whether or not the earthquake is contained only along individual fault sections, such as the Coachella Valley section north of Palm Springs, or the rupture crosses multiple sections including the area through the San Gorgonio Pass. We have determined the age and offset of faulted stream deposits within the San Gorgonio Pass to document slip rates of these faults over the last 10,000 years. Our results indicate a long-term slip rate of 6 mm/yr, which is almost 1/2 of the rates east and west of this area. These new rates, combined with faulted geomorphic surfaces, imply that large magnitude earthquakes must occasionally rupture a 300 km length of the San Andreas Fault from the Salton Sea to the Mojave Desert. Although many ( 65%) earthquakes along the southern San Andreas Fault likely do not rupture through the pass, our new results suggest that large >Mw 7.5 earthquakes are possible on the southern San Andreas Fault and likely
Flint, Lorraine E.; Brandt, Justin; Christensen, Allen H.; Flint, Alan L.; Hevesi, Joseph A.; Jachens, Robert; Kulongoski, Justin T.; Martin, Peter; Sneed, Michelle
The Big Bear Valley, located in the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California, has increased in population in recent years. Most of the water supply for the area is pumped from the alluvial deposits that form the Big Bear Valley groundwater basin. This study was conducted to better understand the thickness and structure of the groundwater basin in order to estimate the quantity and distribution of natural recharge to Big Bear Valley. A gravity survey was used to estimate the thickness of the alluvial deposits that form the Big Bear Valley groundwater basin. This determined that the alluvial deposits reach a maximum thickness of 1,500 to 2,000 feet beneath the center of Big Bear Lake and the area between Big Bear and Baldwin Lakes, and decrease to less than 500 feet thick beneath the eastern end of Big Bear Lake. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) was used to measure pumping-induced land subsidence and to locate structures, such as faults, that could affect groundwater movement. The measurements indicated small amounts of land deformation (uplift and subsidence) in the area between Big Bear Lake and Baldwin Lake, the area near the city of Big Bear Lake, and the area near Sugarloaf, California. Both the gravity and InSAR measurements indicated the possible presence of subsurface faults in subbasins between Big Bear and Baldwin Lakes, but additional data are required for confirmation. The distribution and quantity of groundwater recharge in the area were evaluated by using a regional water-balance model (Basin Characterization Model, or BCM) and a daily rainfall-runoff model (INFILv3). The BCM calculated spatially distributed potential recharge in the study area of approximately 12,700 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) of potential in-place recharge and 30,800 acre-ft/yr of potential runoff. Using the assumption that only 10 percent of the runoff becomes recharge, this approach indicated there is approximately 15,800 acre-ft/yr of total recharge in
Efflorescent crusts at the Eagle Borax spring in Death Valley, California, contain an array of rare Mg and K borate minerals, several of which are only known from one or two other localities. The Mg- and/or K-bearing borates include aristarainite, hydroboracite, kaliborite, mcallisterite, pinnoite, rivadavite, and santite. Ulexite and probertite also occur in the area, although their distribution is different from that of the Mg and K borates. Other evaporite minerals in the spring vicinity include halite, thenardite, eugsterite, gypsum-anhydrite, hexahydrite, and bloedite. Whereas the first five of these minerals are found throughout Death Valley, the last two Mg sulfates are more restricted in occurrence and are indicative of Mg-enriched ground water. Mineral associations observed at the Eagle Borax spring, and at many other borate deposits worldwide, can be explained by the chemical fractionation of borate-precipitating waters during the course of evaporative concentration. The Mg sulfate and Mg borate minerals in the Eagle Borax efflorescent crusts point to the fractionation of Ca by the operation of a chemical divide involving Ca carbonate and Na-Ca borate precipitation in the subsurface sediments. At many other borate mining localities, the occurrence of ulexite in both Na borate (borax-kernite) and Ca borate (ulexite-colemanite) deposits similarly reflects ulexite's coprecipitation with Ca carbonate at an early concentration stage. Such ulexite may perhaps be converted to colemanite by later reaction with the coexisting Ca carbonate - the latter providing the additional Ca2+ ions needed for the conversion. Mg and Ca-Mg borates are the expected late-stage concentration products of waters forming ulexite-colemanite deposits and are therefore most likely to occur in the marginal zones or nearby mud facies of ulexite-colemanite orebodies. Under some circumstances, Mg and Ca-Mg borates might provide a useful prospecting guide for ulexite-colemanite deposits
Holtzman, B. K.; Paté, A.; Paisley, J.; Waldhauser, F.; Repetto, D.; Boschi, L.
The earthquake process reflects complex interactions of stress, fracture and frictional properties. New machine learning methods reveal patterns in time-dependent spectral properties of seismic signals and enable identification of changes in faulting processes. Our methods are based closely on those developed for music information retrieval and voice recognition, using the spectrogram instead of the waveform directly. Unsupervised learning involves identification of patterns based on differences among signals without any additional information provided to the algorithm. Clustering of 46,000 earthquakes of $0.3
The Coachella Valley area was strongly shaken by the 1992 Joshua Tree (23 April) and Landers (28 June) earthquakes, and both events caused triggered slip on active faults within the area. Triggered slip associated with the Joshua Tree earthquake was on a newly recognized fault, the East Wide Canyon fault, near the southwestern edge of the Little San Bernardino Mountains. Slip associated with the Landers earthquake formed along the San Andreas fault in the southeastern Coachella Valley. Surface fractures formed along the East Wide Canyon fault in association with the Joshua Tree earthquake. The fractures extended discontinuously over a 1.5-km stretch of the fault, near its southern end. Sense of slip was consistently right-oblique, west side down, similar to the long-term style of faulting. Measured offset values were small, with right-lateral and vertical components of slip ranging from 1 to 6 mm and 1 to 4 mm, respectively. This is the first documented historic slip on the East Wide Canyon fault, which was first mapped only months before the Joshua Tree earthquake. Surface slip associated with the Joshua Tree earthquake most likely developed as triggered slip given its 5 km distance from the Joshua Tree epicenter and aftershocks. As revealed in a trench investigation, slip formed in an area with only a thin (Salton Trough. A paleoseismic trench study in an area of 1992 surface slip revealed evidence of two and possibly three surface faulting events on the East Wide Canyon fault during the late Quaternary, probably latest Pleistocene (first event) and mid- to late Holocene (second two events). About two months after the Joshua Tree earthquake, the Landers earthquake then triggered slip on many faults, including the San Andreas fault in the southeastern Coachella Valley. Surface fractures associated with this event formed discontinuous breaks over a 54-km-long stretch of the fault, from the Indio Hills southeastward to Durmid Hill. Sense of slip was right
Seidensticker, R.W.; Chang, Y.W.; Kulak, R.F.
This paper describes an experimental test program for isolator bearings which was developed to help establish the viability of using laminated elastomer bearings for base isolation of nuclear reactor plants. The goal of the test program is to determine the performance characteristics of laminated seismic isolation bearings under a wide range of loadings. Tests were performed on scale-size laminated seismic isolators both within the design shear strain range to determine the response of the bearing under expected earthquake loading conditions, and beyond the design range to determine failure modes and to establish safety margins. Three types of bearings, each produced from a different manufacturer, have been tested: (1) high shape factor-high damping-high shear modulus bearings; (2) medium shape factor-high damping-high shear modulus bearings; and (3) medium shape factor-high damping-low shear modulus bearings. All of these tests described in this report were performed at the Earthquake Engineering Research Center at the University of California, Berkeley, with technical assistance from ANL. The tests performed on the three types of bearings have confirmed the high performance characteristics of the high damping-high and low shear modulus elastomeric bearings. The bearings have shown that they are capable of having extremely large shear strains before failure occurs. The most common failure mechanism was the debonding of the top steel plate from the isolators. This failure mechanism can be virtually eliminated by improved manufacturing quality control. The most important result of the failure test of the isolators is the fact that bearings can sustain large horizontal displacement, several times larger than the design value, with failure. Their performance in moderate and strong earthquakes will be far superior to conventional structures
Johnston, M. J. S.; Borcherdt, R. D.; Linde, A. T.
Measurements of dilational earth strain in the frequency band 25-10-5 Hz have been made on a deep borehole strainmeter installed near the San Andreas fault. These data are used to determine seismic radiation fields during nuclear explosions, teleseisms, local earthquakes, and ground noise during seismically quiet times. Strains of less than 10-10 on these instruments can be clearly resolved at short periods (< 10 s) and are recorded with wide dynamic range digital recorders. This permits measurement of the static and dynamic strain variations in the near field of local earthquakes. Noise spectra for earth strain referenced to 1 (strain)2/Hz show that strain resolution decreases at about 10 dB per decade of frequency from -150 dB at 10-4 Hz to -223 dB at 10 Hz. Exact expressions are derived to relate the volumetric strain and displacement field for a homogeneous P wave in a general viscoelastic solid as observed on colocated dilatometers and seismometers. A rare near-field recording of strain and seismic velocity was obtained on May 26, 1984, from an earthquake (ML 3.2) at a hypocentral distance of 3.2 km near the San Andreas fault at San Juan Bautista, California. While the data indicate no precursory strain release at the 5 × 10-11 strain level, a coseismic strain release of 1.86 nanostrain was observed. This change in strain is consistent with that calculated from a simple dislocation model of the event. Ground displacement spectra, determined from the downhole strain data and instrument-corrected surface seismic data, suggest that source parameters estimated from surface recordings may be contaminated by amplification effects in near-surface low-velocity materials.
Hough, Susan E.
The recent article by Seth Stein, Joseph Tomasello, and Andrew Newman raised thought-provoking questions about one of the most vexing open issues in hazard assessment in the United States: the hazard posed by ostensibly infrequent, large, mid-continental earthquakes. Many of the technical issues raised by this article are addressed by A. D. Frankel in the accompanying comment. I concur with this, and will only address and/or elaborate on a few additional issues here: (1) Detailed paleoseismic investigations have shown that the New Madrid region experienced sequences of large earthquakes around 900 and 1450 A.D.in addition to the historic events in 1811-1812. With a repeat time on the order of 400-500 years, these cannot be considered infrequent events. Paleoseismic investigations also reveal evidence that the prehistoric “events” were also sequences of two to three large earthquakes with a similar overall distribution of liquefaction in the greater New Madrid region as produced by the 1811-1812 sequence [Tuttle et al., 2002]. And if, as evidence suggests, the zone produces characteristic earthquakes, one will not see a commensurate rate of moderate events, as would be the case if seismicity followed the Gutenburg-Richter distribution.
Artem' ev, M E; Rotvain, I M; Sadovskii, A M
The possibility of using gravimetric data (Bouguer anomalies) as initial material for determining possible strong earthquake epicenters is determined with the aid of recognition algorithms. This was done for the purpose of correlating geological-geomorphological results and analyzing gravimetric indicators obtained in the study. 9 references, 4 figures, 6 tables.
Mathany, Timothy M.; Belitz, Kenneth
Groundwater quality in the 112-square-mile Bear Valley and Selected Hard Rock Areas (BEAR) study unit was investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) from April to August 2010, as part of the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program’s Priority Basin Project (PBP). The GAMA-PBP was developed in response to the California Groundwater Quality Monitoring Act of 2001 and is being conducted in collaboration with the SWRCB and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The BEAR study unit was the thirty-first study unit to be sampled as part of the GAMA-PBP. The GAMA Bear Valley and Selected Hard Rock Areas study was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of untreated-groundwater quality in the primary aquifer system and to facilitate statistically consistent comparisons of untreated groundwater quality throughout California. The primary aquifer system is defined as the zones corresponding to the perforation intervals of wells listed in the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) database for the BEAR study unit. Groundwater quality in the primary aquifer system may differ from the quality in the shallow or deep water-bearing zones; shallow groundwater may be more vulnerable to surficial contamination. In the BEAR study unit, groundwater samples were collected from two study areas (Bear Valley and Selected Hard Rock Areas) in San Bernardino County. Of the 38 sampling sites, 27 were selected by using a spatially distributed, randomized grid-based method to provide statistical representation of the primary aquifer system in the study unit (grid sites), and the remaining 11 sites were selected to aid in the understanding of the potential groundwater-quality issues associated with septic tank use and with ski areas in the study unit (understanding sites). The groundwater samples were analyzed for organic constituents (volatile organic compounds [VOCs], pesticides and
Scharer, K.M.; Biasi, G.P.; Weldon, R.J.
The Pallett Creek paleoseismic record occupies a keystone position in most attempts to develop rupture histories for the southern San Andreas fault. Previous estimates of earthquake ages at Pallett Creek were determined by decay counting radiocarbon methods. That method requires large samples which can lead to unaccounted sources of uncertainty in radiocarbon ages because of the heterogeneous composition of organic layers. In contrast, accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dates may be obtained from small samples that have known carbon sources and also allow for a more complete sampling of the section. We present 65 new AMS radiocarbon dates that span nine ground-rupturing earthquakes at Pallett Creek. Overall, the AMS dates are similar to and reveal no dramatic bias in the conventional dates. For many layers, however, individual charcoal samples were younger than the conventional dates, leading to earthquake ages that are overall slightly younger than previously reported. New earthquake ages are determined by Bayesian refinement of the layer ages based on stratigraphic ordering and sedimentological constraints. The new chronology is more regular than previously published records in large part due to new samples constraining the age of event R. The closed interval from event C to 1857 has a mean recurrence of 135years (?? = 83.2 years) and a quasiperiodic coefficient of variation (COV) of 0.61. We show that the new dates and resultant earthquake chronology have a stronger effect on COV than the specific membership of this long series and dating precision improvements from sedimentation rates. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.
Stubailo, I.; Watkins, M.; Devora, A.; Bhadha, R. J.; Hauksson, E.; Thomas, V. I.
The USGS/Caltech Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) is a modern digital ground motion seismic network. It develops and maintains Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) data collection and delivery systems in southern California as well as real-time EEW algorithms. Recently, Behr et al., SRL, 2016 analyzed data from several regional seismic networks deployed around the globe. They showed that the SCSN was the network with the smallest data communication delays or latency. Since then, we have reduced further the telemetry delays for many of the 330 current sites. The latency has been reduced on average from 2-6 sec to 0.4 seconds by tuning the datalogger parameters and/or deploying software upgrades. Recognizing the latency data as one of the crucial parameters in EEW, we have started archiving the per-packet latencies in mseed format for all the participating sites in a similar way it is traditionally done for the seismic waveform data. The archived latency values enable us to understand and document long-term changes in performance of the telemetry links. We can also retroactively investigate how latent the waveform data were during a specific event or during a specific time period. In addition the near-real time latency values are useful for monitoring and displaying the real-time station latency, in particular to compare different telemetry technologies. A future step to reduce the latency is to deploy the algorithms on the dataloggers at the seismic stations and transmit either the final solutions or intermediate parameters to a central processing center. To implement this approach, we are developing a stand-alone version of the OnSite algorithm to run on the dataloggers in the field. This will increase the resiliency of the SCSN to potential telemetry restrictions in the immediate aftermath of a large earthquake, either by allowing local alarming by the single station, or permitting transmission of lightweight parametric information rather than continuous
Fuis, G.S.; Lindh, A.G.
/pcsp, are observed, and these changes accompany the changes in P/SV. Observations for the Galway Lake earthquake are similar to observations for the Oroville, California, earthquake (ML = 5.7) of August 1, 1975, and the Brianes Hills, California, earthquake (ML = 4.3) of January 8, 1977 (Lindh et al., Science Vol. 201, pp. 56-59). A change in fault-plane orientation between foreshocks and aftershocks may be understandable in terms of early en-echelon cracking (foreshocks) giving way to shear on the main fault plane (main shock plus aftershocks). Recent laboratory data (Byerlee et al., Tectonophysics, Vol. 44, pp. 161-171) tend to support this view. ?? 1979.
Estimated airborne release of plutonium from the 102 Building at the General Electric Vallecitos Nuclear Center, Vallecitos, California, as a result of postulated damage from severe wind and earthquake hazard
Mishima, J.; Ayer, J.E.; Hays, I.D.
This report estimates the potential airborne releases of plutonium as a consequence of various severities of earthquake and wind hazard postulated for the 102 Building at the General Electric Vallecitos Nuclear Center in California. The releases are based on damage scenarios developed by other specialists. The hazard severities presented range up to a nominal velocity of 230 mph for wind hazard and are in excess of 0.8 g linear acceleration for earthquakes. The consequences of thrust faulting are considered. The approaches and factors used to estimate the releases are discussed. Release estimates range from 0.003 to 3 g Pu
Michael Floyd,; Richard Walters,; John Elliot,; Funning, Gareth J.; Svarc, Jerry L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Andy Hooper,; Yngvar Larsen,; Petar Marinkovic,; Bürgmann, Roland; Johanson, Ingrid; Tim Wright,
Following earthquakes, faults are often observed to continue slipping aseismically. It has been proposed that this afterslip occurs on parts of the fault with rate-strengthening friction that are stressed by the mainshock, but our understanding has been limited by a lack of immediate, high-resolution observations. Here we show that the behavior of afterslip following the 2014 South Napa earthquake varied over distances of only a few kilometers. This variability cannot be explained by coseismic stress changes alone. We present daily positions from continuous and survey GPS sites that we re-measured within 12 hours of the mainshock, and surface displacements from the new Sentinel-1 radar mission. This unique geodetic data set constrains the distribution and evolution of coseismic and postseismic fault slip with exceptional resolution in space and time. We suggest that the observed heterogeneity in behavior is caused by lithological controls on the frictional properties of the fault plane.
Michael, Andrew J.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Stenner, Heidi D.
The paucity of strong-motion stations near the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake makes it impossible to make instrumental studies of key questions about near-fault strong-motion patterns associated with this event. However, observations of displaced rocks allow a qualitative investigation of these problems. By observing the slope of the desert surface and the frictional coefficient between these rocks and the desert surface, we estimate the minimum horizontal acceleration needed to displace the rocks. Combining this information with observations of how many rocks were displaced in different areas near the fault, we infer the level of shaking. Given current empirical shaking attenuation relationships, the number of rocks that moved is slightly lower than expected; this implies that slightly lower than expected shaking occurred during the Hector Mine earthquake. Perhaps more importantly, stretches of the fault with 4 m of total displacement at the surface displaced few nearby rocks on 15?? slopes, suggesting that the horizontal accelerations were below 0.2g within meters of the fault scarp. This low level of shaking suggests that the shallow parts of this rupture did not produce strong accelerations. Finally, we did not observe an increased incidence of displaced rocks along the fault zone itself. This suggests that, despite observations of fault-zone-trapped waves generated by aftershocks of the Hector Mine earthquake, such waves were not an important factor in controlling peak ground acceleration during the mainshock.
Bawden, Gerald W.
Coseismic leveling and triangulation observations are used to determine the faulting geometry and slip distribution of the July 21, 1952, Mw 7.3 Kern County earthquake on the White Wolf fault. A singular value decomposition inversion is used to assess the ability of the geodetic network to resolve slip along a multisegment fault and shows that the network is sufficient to resolve slip along the surface rupture to a depth of 10 km. Below 10 km, the network can only resolve dip slip near the fa...
Solanki, K.; Hauksson, E.; Kanamori, H.; Wu, Y.; Heaton, T.; Boese, M.
We have implemented an on-site early warning algorithm using the infrastructure of the Caltech/USGS Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN). We are evaluating the real-time performance of the software system and the algorithm for rapid assessment of earthquakes. In addition, we are interested in understanding what parts of the SCSN need to be improved to make early warning practical. Our EEW processing system is composed of many independent programs that process waveforms in real-time. The codes were generated by using a software framework. The Pd (maximum displacement amplitude of P wave during the first 3sec) and Tau-c (a period parameter during the first 3 sec) values determined during the EEW processing are being forwarded to the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) web page for independent evaluation of the results. The on-site algorithm measures the amplitude of the P-wave (Pd) and the frequency content of the P-wave during the first three seconds (Tau-c). The Pd and the Tau-c values make it possible to discriminate between a variety of events such as large distant events, nearby small events, and potentially damaging nearby events. The Pd can be used to infer the expected maximum ground shaking. The method relies on data from a single station although it will become more reliable if readings from several stations are associated. To eliminate false triggers from stations with high background noise level, we have created per station Pd threshold configuration for the Pd/Tau-c algorithm. To determine appropriate values for the Pd threshold we calculate Pd thresholds for stations based on the information from the EEW logs. We have operated our EEW test system for about a year and recorded numerous earthquakes in the magnitude range from M3 to M5. Two recent examples are a M4.5 earthquake near Chatsworth and a M4.7 earthquake near Elsinore. In both cases, the Pd and Tau-c parameters were determined successfully within 10 to 20 sec of the arrival of the
Mathany, Timothy; Burton, Carmen
Groundwater quality in the 112-square-mile Bear Valley and Lake Arrowhead Watershed (BEAR) study unit was investigated as part of the Priority Basin Project (PBP) of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The study unit comprises two study areas (Bear Valley and Lake Arrowhead Watershed) in southern California in San Bernardino County. The GAMA-PBP is conducted by the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.The GAMA BEAR study was designed to provide a spatially balanced, robust assessment of the quality of untreated (raw) groundwater from the primary aquifer systems in the two study areas of the BEAR study unit. The assessment is based on water-quality collected by the USGS from 38 sites (27 grid and 11 understanding) during 2010 and on water-quality data from the SWRCB-Division of Drinking Water (DDW) database. The primary aquifer system is defined by springs and the perforation intervals of wells listed in the SWRCB-DDW water-quality database for the BEAR study unit.This study included two types of assessments: (1) a status assessment, which characterized the status of the quality of the groundwater resource as of 2010 by using data from samples analyzed for volatile organic compounds, pesticides, and naturally present inorganic constituents, such as major ions and trace elements, and (2) an understanding assessment, which evaluated the natural and human factors potentially affecting the groundwater quality. The assessments were intended to characterize the quality of groundwater resources in the primary aquifer system of the BEAR study unit, not the treated drinking water delivered to consumers. Bear Valley study area and the Lake Arrowhead Watershed study area were also compared statistically on the basis of water-quality results and factors potentially affecting the groundwater quality.Relative concentrations (RCs
Detweiler, Shane; Pollitz, Fred
The UJNR Panel on Earthquake Research promotes advanced research toward a more fundamental understanding of the earthquake process and hazard estimation. The Eleventh Joint meeting was extremely beneficial in furthering cooperation and deepening understanding of problems common to both Japan and the United States.The meeting included productive exchanges of information on approaches to systematic observation and modeling of earthquake processes. Regarding the earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku and the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, the Panel recognizes that further efforts are necessary to achieve our common goal of reducing earthquake risk through close collaboration and focused discussions at the 12th UJNR meeting.
Thomas, A.M.; Burgmann, R.; Shelly, David R.; Beeler, Nicholas M.; Rudolph, M.L.
Studies of nonvolcanic tremor (NVT) have established the significant impact of small stress perturbations on NVT generation. Here we analyze the influence of the solid earth and ocean tides on a catalog of ∼550,000 low frequency earthquakes (LFEs) distributed along a 150 km section of the San Andreas Fault centered at Parkfield. LFE families are identified in the NVT data on the basis of waveform similarity and are thought to represent small, effectively co-located earthquakes occurring on brittle asperities on an otherwise aseismic fault at depths of 16 to 30 km. We calculate the sensitivity of each of these 88 LFE families to the tidally induced right-lateral shear stress (RLSS), fault-normal stress (FNS), and their time derivatives and use the hypocentral locations of each family to map the spatial variability of this sensitivity. LFE occurrence is most strongly modulated by fluctuations in shear stress, with the majority of families demonstrating a correlation with RLSS at the 99% confidence level or above. Producing the observed LFE rate modulation in response to shear stress perturbations requires low effective stress in the LFE source region. There are substantial lateral and vertical variations in tidal shear stress sensitivity, which we interpret to reflect spatial variation in source region properties, such as friction and pore fluid pressure. Additionally, we find that highly episodic, shallow LFE families are generally less correlated with tidal stresses than their deeper, continuously active counterparts. The majority of families have weaker or insignificant correlation with positive (tensile) FNS. Two groups of families demonstrate a stronger correlation with fault-normal tension to the north and with compression to the south of Parkfield. The families that correlate with fault-normal clamping coincide with a releasing right bend in the surface fault trace and the LFE locations, suggesting that the San Andreas remains localized and contiguous down
May, Jason T.; Hothem, Roger L.; Alpers, Charles N.; Law, Matthew A.
Mercury that was used historically for gold recovery in mining areas of the Sierra Nevada continues to enter local and downstream water bodies, including the Sacramento Delta and the San Francisco Bay of northern California. Methylmercury is of particular concern because it is the most prevalent form of mercury in fish and is a potent neurotoxin that bioaccumulates at successive trophic levels within food webs. In April 1999, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with several other agencies the Forest Service (U.S. Department of Agriculture), the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the California State Water Resources Control Board, and the Nevada County Resource Conservation District began a pilot investigation to characterize the occurrence and distribution of mercury in water, sediment, and biota in the South Yuba River, Deer Creek, and Bear River watersheds of California. Biological samples consisted of semi-aquatic and aquatic insects, amphibians, bird eggs, and fish. Fish were collected from 5 reservoirs and 14 stream sites during August through October 1999 to assess the distribution of mercury in these watersheds. Fish that were collected from reservoirs included top trophic level predators (black basses, Micropterus spp.) intermediate trophic level predators [sunfish (blue gill, Lepomis macrochirus; green sunfish, Lepomis cyanellus; and black crappie, Poxomis nigromaculatus)] and benthic omnivores (channel catfish, Ictularus punctatus). At stream sites, the species collected were upper trophic level salmonids (brown trout, Salmo trutta) and upper-to-intermediate trophic level salmonids (rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss). Boneless and skinless fillet portions from 161 fish were analyzed for total mercury; 131 samples were individual fish, and the remaining 30 fish were combined into 10 composite samples of three fish each of the same species and size class. Mercury concentrations in samples of black basses
J. C. Dunson
Full Text Available The QuakeFinder network of magnetometers has recorded geomagnetic field activity in California since 2000. Established as an effort to follow up observations of ULF activity reported from before and after the M = 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989 by Stanford University, the QuakeFinder network has over 50 sites, fifteen of which are high-resolution QF1005 and QF1007 systems. Pairs of high-resolution sites have also been installed in Peru and Taiwan.
Increases in pulse activity preceding nearby seismic events are followed by decreases in activity afterwards in the three cases that are discussed here. In addition, longer term data is shown, revealing a rich signal structure not previously known in QuakeFinder data, or by many other authors who have reported on pre-seismic ULF phenomena. These pulses occur as separate ensembles, with demonstrable repeatability and uniqueness across a number of properties such as waveform, angle of arrival, amplitude, and duration. Yet they appear to arrive with exponentially distributed inter-arrival times, which indicates a Poisson process rather than a periodic, i.e., stationary process.
These pulses were observed using three-axis induction coil magnetometers that are buried 1–2 m under the surface of the Earth. Our sites use a Nyquist frequency of 16 Hertz (25 Hertz for the new QF1007 units, and they record these pulses at amplitudes from 0.1 to 20 nano-Tesla with durations of 0.1 to 12 s. They are predominantly unipolar pulses, which may imply charge migration, and they are stronger in the two horizontal (north-south and east-west channels than they are in the vertical channels. Pulses have been seen to occur in bursts lasting many hours. The pulses have large amplitudes and study of the three-axis data shows that the amplitude ratios of the pulses taken from pairs of orthogonal coils is stable across the bursts, suggesting a similar source.
This paper presents three
Konca, A. O.; Ji, C.; Helmberger, D. V.
We observed the effect of the fault finiteness in the Pnl waveforms from regional distances (4° to 12° ) for the Mw6.5 San Simeon Earthquake on 22 December 2003. We aimed to include more of the high frequencies (2 seconds and longer periods) than the studies that use regional data for focal solutions (5 to 8 seconds and longer periods). We calculated 1-D synthetic seismograms for the Pn_l portion for both a point source, and a finite fault solution. The comparison of the point source and finite fault waveforms with data show that the first several seconds of the point source synthetics have considerably higher amplitude than the data, while finite fault does not have a similar problem. This can be explained by reversely polarized depth phases overlapping with the P waves from the later portion of the fault, and causing smaller amplitudes for the beginning portion of the seismogram. This is clearly a finite fault phenomenon; therefore, can not be explained by point source calculations. Moreover, the point source synthetics, which are calculated with a focal solution from a long period regional inversion, are overestimating the amplitude by three to four times relative to the data amplitude, while finite fault waveforms have the similar amplitudes to the data. Hence, a moment estimation based only on the point source solution of the regional data could have been wrong by half of magnitude. We have also calculated the shifts of synthetics relative to data to fit the seismograms. Our results reveal that the paths from Central California to the south are faster than to the paths to the east and north. The P wave arrival to the TUC station in Arizona is 4 seconds earlier than the predicted Southern California model, while most stations to the east are delayed around 1 second. The observed higher uppermost mantle velocities to the south are consistent with some recent tomographic models. Synthetics generated with these models significantly improves the fits and the
Horstmann, Tobias; Harrington, Rebecca M.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.
We present a new method to locate low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) within tectonic tremor episodes based on time-reverse imaging techniques. The modified time-reverse imaging technique presented here is the first method that locates individual LFEs within tremor episodes within 5 km uncertainty without relying on high-amplitude P-wave arrivals and that produces similar hypocentral locations to methods that locate events by stacking hundreds of LFEs without having to assume event co-location. In contrast to classic time-reverse imaging algorithms, we implement a modification to the method that searches for phase coherence over a short time period rather than identifying the maximum amplitude of a superpositioned wavefield. The method is independent of amplitude and can help constrain event origin time. The method uses individual LFE origin times, but does not rely on a priori information on LFE templates and families.We apply the method to locate 34 individual LFEs within tremor episodes that occur between 2010 and 2011 on the San Andreas Fault, near Cholame, California. Individual LFE location accuracies range from 2.6 to 5 km horizontally and 4.8 km vertically. Other methods that have been able to locate individual LFEs with accuracy of less than 5 km have mainly used large-amplitude events where a P-phase arrival can be identified. The method described here has the potential to locate a larger number of individual low-amplitude events with only the S-phase arrival. Location accuracy is controlled by the velocity model resolution and the wavelength of the dominant energy of the signal. Location results are also dependent on the number of stations used and are negligibly correlated with other factors such as the maximum gap in azimuthal coverage, source–station distance and signal-to-noise ratio.
Yang Xiaosong; Ma Jin; Du Shuming
If earthquakes are phenomena of self-organized criticality (SOC), statistical characteristics of the earthquake time series should be invariant after the sequence of events in an earthquake catalog are randomly rearranged. In this Letter we argue that earthquakes are unlikely phenomena of SOC because our analysis of the Southern California Earthquake Catalog shows that the first-return-time probability P M (T) is apparently changed after the time series is rearranged. This suggests that the SOC theory should not be used to oppose the efforts of earthquake prediction
Scharer, Katherine M.; Weldon, Ray; Biasi, Glenn; Streig, Ashley; Fumal, Thomas E.
Paleoseismic data on the timing of ground-rupturing earthquakes constrain the recurrence behavior of active faults and can provide insight on the rupture history of a fault if earthquakes dated at neighboring sites overlap in age and are considered correlative. This study presents the evidence and ages for 11 earthquakes that occurred along the Big Bend section of the southern San Andreas Fault at the Frazier Mountain paleoseismic site. The most recent earthquake to rupture the site was the Mw7.7–7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake of 1857. We use over 30 trench excavations to document the structural and sedimentological evolution of a small pull-apart basin that has been repeatedly faulted and folded by ground-rupturing earthquakes. A sedimentation rate of 0.4 cm/yr and abundant organic material for radiocarbon dating contribute to a record that is considered complete since 800 A.D. and includes 10 paleoearthquakes. Earthquakes have ruptured this location on average every ~100 years over the last 1200 years, but individual intervals range from ~22 to 186 years. The coefficient of variation of the length of time between earthquakes (0.7) indicates quasiperiodic behavior, similar to other sites along the southern San Andreas Fault. Comparison with the earthquake chronology at neighboring sites along the fault indicates that only one other 1857-size earthquake could have occurred since 1350 A.D., and since 800 A.D., the Big Bend and Mojave sections have ruptured together at most 50% of the time in Mw ≥ 7.3 earthquakes.
Greenleaf, S.S.; Matthews, S.M.; Wright, R.G.; Beecham, J.J.; Leithead, H.M.
The management of human-American black bear (Ursus americanus) conflict has been of significant concern for Yosemite National Park (YNP) personnel since the 1920s. Park managers implemented the YNP Human-Bear Management Plan in 1975 in an effort to reduce human-bear conflicts, especially in the extensively developed Yosemite Valley (YV). We used scat analysis to estimate annual and seasonal food habits of black bears in YV during 2001-02. We assessed the success of efforts to reduce the availability of anthropogenic foods, including garbage, by examining changes in the diet compared to a study from 1974-78 (Graber 1981). We also quantified consumption of non-native fruit to address its possible contribution to human-bear conflicts. The annual percent volume of human-provided food and garbage in black bear scats in YV decreased from 21% to 6% between 1978 and 2002, indicating YNP efforts have been effective. We found high use of non-native apples by bears throughout YV. Non-native food sources could be contributing to habituation and food conditioning, given their proximity to developed areas of YV. We recommend that YNP managers continue to (1) adapt and improve their management tools to address changing circumstances, (2) quantify the success of new management tools, and (3) reduce the availability of non-native food sources. ?? 2009 International Association for Bear Research and Management.
Cronin, V. S.; Lindsay, R. D.
Geomorphic analysis of hillshade images produced from aerial LiDAR data has been successful in identifying youthful fault traces. For example, the recently discovered Polaris fault just northwest of Lake Tahoe, California/Nevada, was recognized using LiDAR data that had been acquired by local government to assist land-use planning. Subsequent trenching by consultants under contract to the US Army Corps of Engineers has demonstrated Holocene displacement. The Polaris fault is inferred to be capable of generating a magnitude 6.4-6.9 earthquake, based on its apparent length and offset characteristics (Hunter and others, 2011, BSSA 101, 1162-1181). Dingler and others (2009, GSA Bull 121[7/8], 1089-1107) describe paleoseismic or geomorphic evidence for late Neogene displacement along other faults in the area, including the West Tahoe-Dollar Point, Stateline-North Tahoe, and Incline Village faults. We have used the seismo-lineament analysis method (SLAM; Cronin and others, 2008, Env Eng Geol 14, 199-219) to establish a tentative spatial correlation between each of the previously mentioned faults, as well as with segments of the Dog Valley fault system, and one or more earthquake(s). The ~18 earthquakes we have tentatively correlated with faults in the Tahoe-Truckee area occurred between 1966 and 2008, with magnitudes between 3 and ~6. Given the focal mechanism solution for a well-located shallow-focus earthquake, the nodal planes can be projected to Earth's surface as represented by a DEM, plus-or-minus the vertical and horizontal uncertainty in the focal location, to yield two seismo-lineament swaths. The trace of the fault that generated the earthquake is likely to be found within one of the two swaths  if the fault surface is emergent, and  if the fault surface is approximately planar in the vicinity of the focus. Seismo-lineaments from several of the earthquakes studied overlap in a manner that suggests they are associated with the same fault. The surface
Sneed, Michelle; Galloway, Devin L.; Cunningham, William L.
Hydrogeologic responses to earthquakes have been known for decades, and have occurred both close to, and thousands of miles from earthquake epicenters. Water wells have become turbid, dry or begun flowing, discharge of springs and ground water to streams has increased and new springs have formed, and well and surface-water quality have become degraded as a result of earthquakes. Earthquakes affect our Earth’s intricate plumbing system—whether you live near the notoriously active San Andreas Fault in California, or far from active faults in Florida, an earthquake near or far can affect you and the water resources you depend on.
Kapich, Davorin D.
A bearing system includes backup bearings for supporting a rotating shaft upon failure of primary bearings. In the preferred embodiment, the backup bearings are rolling element bearings having their rolling elements disposed out of contact with their associated respective inner races during normal functioning of the primary bearings. Displacement detection sensors are provided for detecting displacement of the shaft upon failure of the primary bearings. Upon detection of the failure of the primary bearings, the rolling elements and inner races of the backup bearings are brought into mutual contact by axial displacement of the shaft.
May, Jason T; Hothem, Roger L; Alpers, Charles N; Law, Matthew A
... Francisco Bay of northern California. Methylmercury is of particular concern because it is the most prevalent form of mercury in fish and is a potent neurotoxin that bioaccumulates at successive trophic levels within food webs...
Continuous borehole strain and pore pressure in the near field of the 28 September 2004 M 6.0 parkfield, California, earthquake: Implications for nucleation, fault response, earthquake prediction and tremor
Johnston, M.J.S.; Borcherdt, R.D.; Linde, A.T.; Gladwin, M.T.
Near-field observations of high-precision borehole strain and pore pressure, show no indication of coherent accelerating strain or pore pressure during the weeks to seconds before the 28 September 2004 M 6.0 Parkfield earthquake. Minor changes in strain rate did occur at a few sites during the last 24 hr before the earthquake but these changes are neither significant nor have the form expected for strain during slip coalescence initiating fault failure. Seconds before the event, strain is stable at the 10-11 level. Final prerupture nucleation slip in the hypocentral region is constrained to have a moment less than 2 ?? 1012 N m (M 2.2) and a source size less than 30 m. Ground displacement data indicate similar constraints. Localized rupture nucleation and runaway precludes useful prediction of damaging earthquakes. Coseismic dynamic strains of about 10 microstrain peak-to-peak were superimposed on volumetric strain offsets of about 0.5 microstrain to the northwest of the epicenter and about 0.2 microstrain to the southeast of the epicenter, consistent with right lateral slip. Observed strain and Global Positioning System (GPS) offsets can be simply fit with 20 cm of slip between 4 and 10 km on a 20-km segment of the fault north of Gold Hill (M0 = 7 ?? 1017 N m). Variable slip inversion models using GPS data and seismic data indicate similar moments. Observed postseismic strain is 60% to 300% of the coseismic strain, indicating incomplete release of accumulated strain. No measurable change in fault zone compliance preceding or following the earthquake is indicated by stable earth tidal response. No indications of strain change accompany nonvolcanic tremor events reported prior to and following the earthquake.
Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.
The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of
Page, Morgan T.
Source Inversion Validation Workshop; Palm Springs, California, 11-12 September 2010; Nowadays earthquake source inversions are routinely performed after large earthquakes and represent a key connection between recorded seismic and geodetic data and the complex rupture process at depth. The resulting earthquake source models quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of ruptures. They are also used to provide a rapid assessment of the severity of an earthquake and to estimate losses. However, because of uncertainties in the data, assumed fault geometry and velocity structure, and chosen rupture parameterization, it is not clear which features of these source models are robust. Improved understanding of the uncertainty and reliability of earthquake source inversions will allow the scientific community to use the robust features of kinematic inversions to more thoroughly investigate the complexity of the rupture process and to better constrain other earthquakerelated computations, such as ground motion simulations and static stress change calculations.
The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures
An algorithm for predicting large earthquakes is proposed. The reciprocal ratio (mri) of the residual seismic moment to the total moment release in a region is used for imaging seismic moment precursors. Peaks in mri predict recent major earthquakes, including the 1985 Michoacan, 1985 central Chile, and 1992 Eureka, California earthquakes.
On January 17, at 4:31 A.M., a 6.6 magnitude earthquake hit the Los Angeles area, crippling much of the local infrastructure and claiming 51 lives. Members of the Southern California Earthquake Network, a consortium of scientists at universities and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), entered a controlled crisis mode. Network scientists, including David Wald, Susan Hough, Kerry Sieh, and a half dozen others went into the field to gather information on the earthquake, which apparently ruptured an unmapped fault.
Aagaard, Brad T.; Blair, James Luke; Boatwright, John; Garcia, Susan H.; Harris, Ruth A.; Michael, Andrew J.; Schwartz, David P.; DiLeo, Jeanne S.; Jacques, Kate; Donlin, Carolyn
Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in the San Francisco Bay region before 2043. Earthquakes this large are capable of causing widespread damage; therefore, communities in the region should take simple steps to help reduce injuries, damage, and disruption, as well as accelerate recovery from these earthquakes.
Shelly, David R.; Ellsworth, William L.; Hill, David P.
An extended earthquake swarm occurred beneath southeastern Long Valley Caldera between May and November 2014, culminating in three magnitude 3.5 earthquakes and 1145 cataloged events on 26 September alone. The swarm produced the most prolific seismicity in the caldera since a major unrest episode in 1997-1998. To gain insight into the physics controlling swarm evolution, we used large-scale cross-correlation between waveforms of cataloged earthquakes and continuous data, producing precise locations for 8494 events, more than 2.5 times the routine catalog. We also estimated magnitudes for 18,634 events (~5.5 times the routine catalog), using a principal component fit to measure waveform amplitudes relative to cataloged events. This expanded and relocated catalog reveals multiple episodes of pronounced hypocenter expansion and migration on a collection of neighboring faults. Given the rapid migration and alignment of hypocenters on narrow faults, we infer that activity was initiated and sustained by an evolving fluid pressure transient with a low-viscosity fluid, likely composed primarily of water and CO2 exsolved from underlying magma. Although both updip and downdip migration were observed within the swarm, downdip activity ceased shortly after activation, while updip activity persisted for weeks at moderate levels. Strongly migrating, single-fault episodes within the larger swarm exhibited a higher proportion of larger earthquakes (lower Gutenberg-Richter b value), which may have been facilitated by fluid pressure confined in two dimensions within the fault zone. In contrast, the later swarm activity occurred on an increasingly diffuse collection of smaller faults, with a much higher b value.
South Napa earthquake occurred in Napa, California on August 24 at 3am, local time, and the magnitude is 6.0. The earthquake was the largest in SF Bay Area since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Economic loss topped $ 1 billion. Wine makers cleaning up and estimated the damage on tourism. Around 15,000 cases of lovely cabernet were pouring into the garden at the Hess Collection. Earthquake potentially raise water pollution risks, could cause water crisis. CA suffered water shortage recent years, and it could be helpful on how to prevent underground/surface water pollution from earthquake. This research gives a clear view on drinking water system in CA, pollution on river systems, as well as estimation on earthquake impact on water supply. The Sacramento-San Joaquin River delta (close to Napa), is the center of the state's water distribution system, delivering fresh water to more than 25 million residents and 3 million acres of farmland. Delta water conveyed through a network of levees is crucial to Southern California. The drought has significantly curtailed water export, and salt water intrusion reduced fresh water outflows. Strong shaking from a nearby earthquake can cause saturated, loose, sandy soils liquefaction, and could potentially damage major delta levee systems near Napa. Napa earthquake is a wake-up call for Southern California. It could potentially damage freshwater supply system.
California Earthquake Clearinghouse: Advocating for, and Advancing, Collaboration and Technology Interoperability, Between the Scientific and Emergency Response Communities, to Produce Actionable Intelligence for Situational Awareness, and Decision Support
Rosinski, A.; Beilin, P.; Colwell, J.; Hornick, M.; Glasscoe, M. T.; Morentz, J.; Smorodinsky, S.; Millington, A.; Hudnut, K. W.; Penn, P.; Ortiz, M.; Kennedy, M.; Long, K.; Miller, K.; Stromberg, M.
The Clearinghouse provides emergency management and response professionals, scientific and engineering communities with prompt information on ground failure, structural damage, and other consequences from significant seismic events such as earthquakes or tsunamis. Clearinghouse activations include participation from Federal, State and local government, law enforcement, fire, EMS, emergency management, public health, environmental protection, the military, public and non-governmental organizations, and private sector. For the August 24, 2014 S. Napa earthquake, over 100 people from 40 different organizations participated during the 3-day Clearinghouse activation. Every organization has its own role and responsibility in disaster response; however all require authoritative data about the disaster for rapid hazard assessment and situational awareness. The Clearinghouse has been proactive in fostering collaboration and sharing Essential Elements of Information across disciplines. The Clearinghouse-led collaborative promotes the use of standard formats and protocols to allow existing technology to transform data into meaningful incident-related content and to enable data to be used by the largest number of participating Clearinghouse partners, thus providing responding personnel with enhanced real-time situational awareness, rapid hazard assessment, and more informed decision-making in support of response and recovery. The Clearinghouse efforts address national priorities outlined in USGS Circular 1242, Plan to Coordinate NEHRP post-earthquake investigations and S. 740-Geospatial Data Act of 2015, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), to streamline and coordinate geospatial data infrastructure, maximizing geospatial data in support of the Robert T. Stafford Act. Finally, the US Dept. of Homeland Security, Geospatial Management Office, recognized Clearinghouse's data sharing efforts as a Best Practice to be included in the forthcoming 2015 HLS Geospatial Concept of Operations.
Lotfi, Nastaran; Darooneh, Amir Hossein; Rodrigues, Francisco A.
Seismic time series has been mapped as a complex network, where a geographical region is divided into square cells that represent the nodes and connections are defined according to the sequence of earthquakes. In this paper, we map a seismic time series to a temporal network, described by a multiplex network, and characterize the evolution of the network structure in terms of the eigenvector centrality measure. We generalize previous works that considered the single layer representation of earthquake networks. Our results suggest that the multiplex representation captures better earthquake activity than methods based on single layer networks. We also verify that the regions with highest seismological activities in Iran and California can be identified from the network centrality analysis. The temporal modeling of seismic data provided here may open new possibilities for a better comprehension of the physics of earthquakes.
Ponti, Daniel J.; Wells, Ray E.
The Ms 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake of 18 October 1989 produced abundant ground ruptures in an 8 by 4 km area along Summit Road and Skyland Ridge in the Santa Cruz Mountains. Predominantly extensional fissures formed a left-stepping, crudely en echelon pattern along ridges of the hanging-wall block southwest of the San Andreas fault, about 12 km northwest of the epicenter. The fissures are subparallel to the San Andreas fault and appear to be controlled by bedding planes, faults, joints, and other weak zones in the underlying Tertiary sedimentary strata of the hanging-wall block. The pattern of extensional fissures is generally consistent with tectonic extension across the crest of the uplifted hanging-wall block. Also, many displacements in Laurel Creek canyon and along the San Andreas and Sargent faults are consistent with right-lateral reverse faulting inferred for the mainshock. Additional small tensile failures along the axis of the Laurel anticline may reflect growth of the fold during deep-seated compression. However, the larger ridge-top fissures commonly have displacements that are parallel to the north-northeast regional slope directions and appear inconsistent with east-northeast extension expected from this earthquake. Measured cumulative displacements across the ridge crests are at least 35 times larger than that predicted by the geodetically determined surface deformation. These fissures also occur in association with ubiquitous landslide complexes that were reactivated by the earthquake to produce the largest concentration of co-seismic slope failures in the epicentral region. The anomalously large displacements and the apparent slope control of the geometry and displacement of many co-seismic surface ruptures lead us to conclude that gravity is an important driving force in the formation of the ridge-top fissures. Shaking-induced gravitational spreading of ridges and downslope movement may account for 90¿ or more of the observed displacements on
Detecting Significant Stress Drop Variations in Large Micro-Earthquake Datasets: A Comparison Between a Convergent Step-Over in the San Andreas Fault and the Ventura Thrust Fault System, Southern California
Goebel, T. H. W.; Hauksson, E.; Plesch, A.; Shaw, J. H.
A key parameter in engineering seismology and earthquake physics is seismic stress drop, which describes the relative amount of high-frequency energy radiation at the source. To identify regions with potentially significant stress drop variations, we perform a comparative analysis of source parameters in the greater San Gorgonio Pass (SGP) and Ventura basin (VB) in southern California. The identification of physical stress drop variations is complicated by large data scatter as a result of attenuation, limited recording bandwidth and imprecise modeling assumptions. In light of the inherently high uncertainties in single stress drop measurements, we follow the strategy of stacking large numbers of source spectra thereby enhancing the resolution of our method. We analyze more than 6000 high-quality waveforms between 2000 and 2014, and compute seismic moments, corner frequencies and stress drops. Significant variations in stress drop estimates exist within the SGP area. Moreover, the SGP also exhibits systematically higher stress drops than VB and shows more scatter. We demonstrate that the higher scatter in SGP is not a generic artifact of our method but an expression of differences in underlying source processes. Our results suggest that higher differential stresses, which can be deduced from larger focal depth and more thrust faulting, may only be of secondary importance for stress drop variations. Instead, the general degree of stress field heterogeneity and strain localization may influence stress drops more strongly, so that more localized faulting and homogeneous stress fields favor lower stress drops. In addition, higher loading rates, for example, across the VB potentially result in stress drop reduction whereas slow loading rates on local fault segments within the SGP region result in anomalously high stress drop estimates. Our results show that crustal and fault properties systematically influence earthquake stress drops of small and large events and should
California Earthquake Clearinghouse Crisis Information-Sharing Strategy in Support of Situational Awareness, Understanding Interdependencies of Critical Infrastructure, Regional Resilience, Preparedness, Risk Assessment/mitigation, Decision-Making and Everyday Operational Needs
Rosinski, A.; Morentz, J.; Beilin, P.
The principal function of the California Earthquake Clearinghouse is to provide State and Federal disaster response managers, and the scientific and engineering communities, with prompt information on ground failure, structural damage, and other consequences from significant seismic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis. The overarching problem highlighted in discussions with Clearinghouse partners is the confusion and frustration of many of the Operational Area representatives, and some regional utilities throughout the state on what software applications they should be using and maintaining to meet State, Federal, and Local, requirements, and for what purposes, and how to deal with the limitations of these applications. This problem is getting in the way of making meaningful progress on developing multi-application interoperability and the necessary supporting cross-sector information-sharing procedures and dialogue on essential common operational information that entities need to share for different all hazards missions and related operational activities associated with continuity, security, and resilience. The XchangeCore based system the Clearinghouse is evolving helps deal with this problem, and does not compound it by introducing yet another end-user application; there is no end-user interface with which one views XchangeCore, all viewing of data provided through XchangeCore occurs in and on existing, third-party operational applications. The Clearinghouse efforts with XchangeCore are compatible with FEMA, which is currently using XchangeCore-provided data for regional and National Business Emergency Operations Center (source of business information sharing during emergencies) response. Also important, and should be emphasized, is that information-sharing is not just for response, but for preparedness, risk assessment/mitigation decision-making, and everyday operational needs for situational awareness. In other words, the benefits of the Clearinghouse
McCrink, T.P.; Wills, C.J.; Real, C.R.; Manson, M.W.
A statistical evaluation of shaking damage to wood-framed houses caused by the 2003 M6.5 San Simeon earthquake indicates that both the rate and severity of damage, independent of structure type, are significantly greater on hilltops compared to hill slopes when underlain by Cretaceous or Tertiary sedimentary rocks. This increase in damage is interpreted to be the result of topographic amplification. An increase in the damage rate is found for all structures built on Plio-Pleistocene rocks independent of topographic position, and this is interpreted to be the result of amplified shaking caused by geologic site response. Damage rate and severity to houses built on Tertiary rocks suggest that amplification due to both topographic position and geologic site response may be occurring in these rocks, but effects from other topographic parameters cannot be ruled out. For all geologic and topographic conditions, houses with raised foundations are more frequently damaged than those with slab foundations. However, the severity of damage to houses on raised foundations is only significantly greater for those on hill slopes underlain by Tertiary rocks. Structures with some damage-resistant characteristics experienced greater damage severity on hilltops, suggesting a spectral response to topographic amplification. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.
Menke, John R.; Boeker, Gilbert F.
1. An improved journal bearing comprising in combination a non-rotatable cylindrical bearing member having a first bearing surface, a rotatable cylindrical bearing member having a confronting second bearing surface having a plurality of bearing elements, a source of lubricant adjacent said bearing elements for supplying lubricant thereto, each bearing element consisting of a pair of elongated relatively shallowly depressed surfaces lying in a cylindrical surface co-axial with the non-depressed surface and diverging from one another in the direction of rotation and obliquely arranged with respect to the axis of rotation of said rotatable member to cause a flow of lubricant longitudinally along said depressed surfaces from their distal ends toward their proximal ends as said bearing members are rotated relative to one another, each depressed surface subtending a radial angle of less than 360.degree., and means for rotating said rotatable bearing member to cause the lubricant to flow across and along said depressed surfaces, the flow of lubricant being impeded by the non-depressed portions of said second bearing surface to cause an increase in the lubricant pressure.
Matsuda, E.N.; Savage, W.U.; Williams, K.K.; Laguens, G.C.
The impact of the occurrence of a large, damaging earthquake on a regional electric power system is a function of the geographical distribution of strong shaking, the vulnerability of various types of electric equipment located within the affected region, and operational resources available to maintain or restore electric system functionality. Experience from numerous worldwide earthquake occurrences has shown that seismic damage to high-voltage substation equipment is typically the reason for post-earthquake loss of electric service. In this paper, the authors develop and apply a methodology to analyze earthquake impacts on Pacific Gas and Electric Company's (PG and E's) high-voltage electric substation network in central and northern California. The authors' objectives are to identify and prioritize ways to reduce the potential impact of future earthquakes on our electric system, refine PG and E's earthquake preparedness and response plans to be more realistic, and optimize seismic criteria for future equipment purchases for the electric system
The generation of seismically induced landslide depends on the characteristics of shaking as well as mechanical properties of geologic materials. A very important parameter in the study of seismically induced landslide is the intensity based on a strong-motion accelerogram: it is defined as Arias intensity and is proportional to the duration of the shaking record as well as the amplitude. Having a theoretical relationship between Arias intensity, magnitude and distance it is possible to predict how far away from the seismic source landslides are likely to occur for a given magnitude earthquake. Field investigations have established that the threshold level of Arias intensity depends also on site effects, particularly the fracture characteristics of the outcrops present. -from Author
Prejean, Stephanie; Ellsworth, William L.; Zoback, Mark; Waldhauser, Felix
We have determined high-resolution hypocenters for 45,000+ earthquakes that occurred between 1980 and 2000 in the Long Valley caldera area using a double-difference earthquake location algorithm and routinely determined arrival times. The locations reveal numerous discrete fault planes in the southern caldera and adjacent Sierra Nevada block (SNB). Intracaldera faults include a series of east/west-striking right-lateral strike-slip faults beneath the caldera's south moat and a series of more northerly striking strike-slip/normal faults beneath the caldera's resurgent dome. Seismicity in the SNB south of the caldera is confined to a crustal block bounded on the west by an east-dipping oblique normal fault and on the east by the Hilton Creek fault. Two NE-striking left-lateral strike-slip faults are responsible for most seismicity within this block. To understand better the stresses driving seismicity, we performed stress inversions using focal mechanisms with 50 or more first motions. This analysis reveals that the least principal stress direction systematically rotates across the studied region, from NE to SW in the caldera's south moat to WNW-ESE in Round Valley, 25 km to the SE. Because WNW-ESE extension is characteristic of the western boundary of the Basin and Range province, caldera area stresses appear to be locally perturbed. This stress perturbation does not seem to result from magma chamber inflation but may be related to the significant (???20 km) left step in the locus of extension along the Sierra Nevada/Basin and Range province boundary. This implies that regional-scale tectonic processes are driving seismic deformation in the Long Valley caldera.
Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed. A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository
Estimated airborne release of plutonium from Atomics International's Nuclear Materials Development Facility in the Santa Susana site, California, as a result of postulated damage from severe wind and earthquake hazard
Mishima, J.; Ayer, J.E.
The potential mass of airborne releases of plutonium (source term) that could result from wind and seismic damage is estimated for the Atomics International Company's Nuclear Materials Development Facility (NMDF) at the Santa Susana site in California. The postulated source terms will be useful as the basis for estimating the potential dose to the maximum exposed individual by inhalation and to the total population living within a prescribed radius of the site. The respirable fraction of airborne particles is thus the principal concern. The estimated source terms are based on the damage ratio, and the potential airborne releases if all enclosures suffer particular levels of damage. In an attempt to provide a realistic range of potential source terms that include most of the normal processing conditions, a best estimate bounded by upper and lower limits is provided. The range of source terms is calculated by combining a high best estimate and a low damage ratio, based on a fraction of enclosures suffering crush or perforation, with the airborne release from enclosures based upon an upper limit, average, and lower limit inventory of dispersible materials at risk. Two throughput levels are considered. The factors used to evaluate the fractional airborne release of materials and the exchange rates between enclosed and exterior atmospheres are discussed. The postulated damage and source terms are discussed for wind and earthquake hazard scenarios in order of their increasing severity
de Groot, R.; Abbott, P.; Benthien, M.
Since 2001, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has collaborated on several video production projects that feature important topics related to earthquake science, engineering, and preparedness. These projects have also fostered many fruitful and sustained partnerships with a variety of organizations that have a stake in hazard education and preparedness. The Seismic Sleuths educational video first appeared in the spring season 2001 on Discovery Channel's Assignment Discovery. Seismic Sleuths is based on a highly successful curriculum package developed jointly by the American Geophysical Union and The Department of Homeland Security Federal Emergency Management Agency. The California Earthquake Authority (CEA) and the Institute for Business and Home Safety supported the video project. Summer Productions, a company with a reputation for quality science programming, produced the Seismic Sleuths program in close partnership with scientists, engineers, and preparedness experts. The program has aired on the National Geographic Channel as recently as Fall 2004. Currently, SCEC is collaborating with Pat Abbott, a geology professor at San Diego State University (SDSU) on the video project Written In Stone: Earthquake Country - Los Angeles. Partners on this project include the California Seismic Safety Commission, SDSU, SCEC, CEA, and the Insurance Information Network of California. This video incorporates live-action demonstrations, vivid animations, and a compelling host (Abbott) to tell the story about earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The Written in Stone team has also developed a comprehensive educator package that includes the video, maps, lesson plans, and other supporting materials. We will present the process that facilitates the creation of visually effective, factually accurate, and entertaining video programs. We acknowledge the need to have a broad understanding of the literature related to communication, media studies, science education, and
A gas lubricated bearing for a rotating shaft is described. The assembly comprises a stationary collar having an annular member resiliently supported thereon. The collar and annular member are provided with cooperating gas passages arranged for admission of pressurized gas which supports and lubricates a bearing block fixed to the rotatable shaft. The resilient means for the annular member support the latter against movement away from the bearing block when the assembly is in operation.
Jones, Kenneth, II; Saxton, Patrick
Many attempts have been made to determine a sound forecasting method regarding earthquakes and warn the public in turn. Presently, the animal kingdom leads the precursor list alluding to a transmission related source. By applying the animal-based model to an electromagnetic (EM) wave model, various hypotheses were formed, but the most interesting one required the use of a magnetometer with a differing design and geometry. To date, numerous, high-end magnetometers have been in use in close proximity to fault zones for potential earthquake forecasting; however, something is still amiss. The problem still resides with what exactly is forecastable and the investigating direction of EM. After a number of custom rock experiments, two hypotheses were formed which could answer the EM wave model. The first hypothesis concerned a sufficient and continuous electron movement either by surface or penetrative flow, and the second regarded a novel approach to radio transmission. Electron flow along fracture surfaces was determined to be inadequate in creating strong EM fields, because rock has a very high electrical resistance making it a high quality insulator. Penetrative flow could not be corroborated as well, because it was discovered that rock was absorbing and confining electrons to a very thin skin depth. Radio wave transmission and detection worked with every single test administered. This hypothesis was reviewed for propagating, long-wave generation with sufficient amplitude, and the capability of penetrating solid rock. Additionally, fracture spaces, either air or ion-filled, can facilitate this concept from great depths and allow for surficial detection. A few propagating precursor signals have been detected in the field occurring with associated phases using custom-built loop antennae. Field testing was conducted in Southern California from 2006-2011, and outside the NE Texas town of Timpson in February, 2013. The antennae have mobility and observations were noted for
Rundle, J. B.; Kellogg, L. H.; Turcotte, D. L.
California's abundant resources are linked with its natural hazards. Earthquakes, landslides, wildfires, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, severe storms, fires, and droughts afflict the state regularly. These events have the potential to become great disasters, like the San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906, that overwhelm the capacity of society to respond. At such times, the fabric of civic life is frayed, political leadership is tested, economic losses can dwarf available resources, and full recovery can take decades. A patchwork of Federal, state and local programs are in place to address individual hazards, but California lacks effective coordination to forecast, prevent, prepare for, mitigate, respond to, and recover from, the harmful effects of natural disasters. Moreover, we do not know enough about the frequency, size, time, or locations where they may strike, nor about how the natural environment and man-made structures would respond. As California's population grows and becomes more interdependent, even moderate events have the potential to trigger catastrophes. Natural hazards need not become natural disasters if they are addressed proactively and effectively, rather than reactively. The University of California, with 10 campuses distributed across the state, has world-class faculty and students engaged in research and education in all fields of direct relevance to hazards. For that reason, the UC can become a world leader in anticipating and managing natural hazards in order to prevent loss of life and property and degradation of environmental quality. The University of California, Office of the President, has therefore established a new system-wide Multicampus Research Project, the California Hazards Institute (CHI), as a mechanism to research innovative, effective solutions for California. The CHI will build on the rich intellectual capital and expertise of the Golden State to provide the best available science, knowledge and tools for
Schwartz, C.C.; Miller, S.D.; Haroldson, M.A.; Feldhamer, G.; Thompson, B.; Chapman, J.
The grizzly bear inspires fear, awe, and respect in humans to a degree unmatched by any other North American wild mammal. Like other bear species, it can inflict serious injury and death on humans and sometimes does. Unlike the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) of the sparsely inhabited northern arctic, however, grizzly bears still live in areas visited by crowds of people, where presence of the grizzly remains physically real and emotionally dominant. A hike in the wilderness that includes grizzly bears is different from a stroll in a forest from which grizzly bears have been purged; nighttime conversations around the campfire and dreams in the tent reflect the presence of the great bear. Contributing to the aura of the grizzly bear is the mixture of myth and reality about its ferocity. unpredictable disposition, large size, strength, huge canines, long claws, keen senses, swiftness, and playfulness. They share characteristics with humans such as generalist life history strategies. extended periods of maternal care, and omnivorous diets. These factors capture the human imagination in ways distinct from other North American mammals. Precontact Native American legends reflected the same fascination with the grizzly bear as modern stories and legends (Rockwell 1991).
Rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured in two worldwide catalogs over ???20-year intervals. The overall rates observed are similar to ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California. The aftershock model was extended to the case of moderate foreshocks preceding large mainshocks. Overall, the observed worldwide foreshock rates exceed the extended California generic model by a factor of ???2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events, a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, had a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, had a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have found low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggests the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich. If this is so, then the California generic model may significantly underestimate the conditional probability for a very large (M ??? 8) earthquake following a potential (M ??? 7) foreshock in Cascadia. The magnitude differences among the identified foreshock-mainshock pairs in the Harvard catalog are consistent with a uniform
The July 8, 1986, North Palm Strings earthquake is used as a basis for comparison of several different approaches to the solution for the rupture history of a finite fault. The inversion of different waveform data is considered; both teleseismic P waveforms and local strong ground motion records. Linear parametrizations for slip amplitude are compared with nonlinear parametrizations for both slip amplitude and rupture time. Inversions using both synthetic and empirical Green's functions are considered. In general, accurate Green's functions are more readily calculable for the teleseismic problem where simple ray theory and flat-layered velocity structures are usually sufficient. However, uncertainties in the variation in t* with frequency most limit the resolution of teleseismic inversions. A set of empirical Green's functions that are well recorded at teleseismic distances could avoid the uncertainties in attenuation. In the inversion of strong motion data, the accurate calculation of propagation path effects other than attenuation effects is the limiting factor in the resolution of source parameters. -from Author
Wu, Xingfu; Duan, Benchun; Taylor, Valerie
, such as California and Japan, scientists have been using numerical simulations to study earthquake rupture propagation along faults and seismic wave propagation in the surrounding media on ever-advancing modern computers over past several decades. In particular
Merifield, P. M. (Principal Investigator); Lamar, D. L.; Gazley, C., Jr.; Lamar, J. V.; Stratton, R. H.
The author has identified the following significant results. Four previously unknown faults were discovered in basement terrane of the Peninsular Ranges. These have been named the San Ysidro Creek fault, Thing Valley fault, Canyon City fault, and Warren Canyon fault. In addition fault gouge and breccia were recognized along the San Diego River fault. Study of features on Skylab imagery and review of geologic and seismic data suggest that the risk of a damaging earthquake is greater along the northwestern portion of the Elsinore fault than along the southeastern portion. Physiographic indicators of active faulting along the Garlock fault identifiable in Skylab imagery include scarps, linear ridges, shutter ridges, faceted ridges, linear valleys, undrained depressions and offset drainage. The following previously unrecognized fault segments are postulated for the Salton Trough Area: (1) An extension of a previously known fault in the San Andreas fault set located southeast of the Salton Sea; (2) An extension of the active San Jacinto fault zone along a tonal change in cultivated fields across Mexicali Valley ( the tonal change may represent different soil conditions along opposite sides of a fault). For the Skylab and LANDSAT images studied, pseudocolor transformations offer no advantages over the original images in the recognition of faults in Skylab and LANDSAT images. Alluvial deposits of different ages, a marble unit and iron oxide gossans of the Mojave Mining District are more readily differentiated on images prepared from ratios of individual bands of the S-192 multispectral scanner data. The San Andreas fault was also made more distinct in the 8/2 and 9/2 band ratios by enhancement of vegetation differences on opposite sides of the fault. Preliminary analysis indicates a significant earth resources potential for the discrimination of soil and rock types, including mineral alteration zones. This application should be actively pursued.
Hopkins, John B.; Koch, Paul L.; Schwartz, Charles C.; Ferguson, Jake M.; Greenleaf, Schuyler S.; Kalinowski, Steven T.
We used genetic and stable isotope analysis of hair from free-ranging black bears (Ursus americanus) in Yosemite National Park, California, USA to: 1) identify bears that consume human food, 2) estimate the diets of these bears, and 3) evaluate the Yosemite human–bear management program. Specifically, we analyzed the isotopic composition of hair from bears known a priori to be food-conditioned or non-food-conditioned and used these data to predict whether bears with an unknown management status were food-conditioned (FC) or non-food-conditioned (NFC). We used a stable isotope mixing model to estimate the proportional contribution of natural foods (plants and animals) versus human food in the diets of FC bears. We then used results from both analyses to evaluate proactive (population-level) and reactive (individual-level) human–bear management, and discussed new metrics to evaluate the overall human–bear management program in Yosemite. Our results indicated that 19 out of 145 (13%) unknown bears sampled from 2005 to 2007 were food-conditioned. The proportion of human food in the diets of known FC bears likely declined from 2001–2003 to 2005–2007, suggesting proactive management was successful in reducing the amount of human food available to bears. In contrast, reactive management was not successful in changing the management status of known FC bears to NFC bears, or in reducing the contribution of human food to the diets of FC bears. Nine known FC bears were recaptured on 14 occasions from 2001 to 2007; all bears were classified as FC during subsequent recaptures, and human–bear management did not reduce the amount of human food in the diets of FC bears. Based on our results, we suggest Yosemite continue implementing proactive human–bear management, reevaluate reactive management, and consider removing problem bears (those involved in repeated bear incidents) from the population.
Hill, David P.; Peng, Zhigang; Shelly, David R.; Aiken, Chastity
The dynamic stresses that are associated with the energetic seismic waves generated by the Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake off the northeast coast of Japan triggered bursts of tectonic tremor beneath the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault (SAF) at an epicentral distance of ∼8200 km. The onset of tremor begins midway through the ∼100‐s‐period S‐wave arrival, with a minor burst coinciding with the SHSH arrival, as recorded on the nearby broadband seismic station PKD. A more pronounced burst coincides with the Love arrival, followed by a series of impulsive tremor bursts apparently modulated by the 20‐ to 30‐s‐period Rayleigh wave. The triggered tremor was located at depths between 20 and 30 km beneath the surface trace of the fault, with the burst coincident with the S wave centered beneath the fault 30 km northwest of Parkfield. Most of the subsequent activity, including the tremor coincident with the SHSH arrival, was concentrated beneath a stretch of the fault extending from 10 to 40 km southeast of Parkfield. The seismic waves from the Tohoku epicenter form a horizontal incidence angle of ∼14°, with respect to the local strike of the SAF. Computed peak dynamic Coulomb stresses on the fault at tremor depths are in the 0.7–10 kPa range. The apparent modulation of tremor bursts by the small, strike‐parallel Rayleigh‐wave stresses (∼0.7 kPa) is likely enabled by pore pressure variations driven by the Rayleigh‐wave dilatational stress. These results are consistent with the strike‐parallel dynamic stresses (δτs) associated with the S, SHSH, and surface‐wave phases triggering small increments of dextral slip on the fault with a low friction (μ∼0.2). The vertical dynamic stresses δτd do not trigger tremor with vertical or oblique slip under this simple Coulomb failure model.
Cinna Lomnitz is possibly the most distinguished earthquake seismologist in all of Central and South America. Among many other credentials, Lomnitz has personally experienced the shaking and devastation that accompanied no fewer than five major earthquakes—Chile, 1939; Kern County, California, 1952; Chile, 1960; Caracas,Venezuela, 1967; and Mexico City, 1985. Thus he clearly has much to teach someone like myself, who has never even actually felt a real earthquake.What is this slim book? The Road to Total Earthquake Safety summarizes Lomnitz's May 1999 presentation at the Seventh Mallet-Milne Lecture, sponsored by the Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics. His arguments are motivated by the damage that occurred in three earthquakes—Mexico City, 1985; Loma Prieta, California, 1989; and Kobe, Japan, 1995. All three quakes occurred in regions where earthquakes are common. Yet in all three some of the worst damage occurred in structures located a significant distance from the epicenter and engineered specifically to resist earthquakes. Some of the damage also indicated that the structures failed because they had experienced considerable rotational or twisting motion. Clearly, Lomnitz argues, there must be fundamental flaws in the usually accepted models explaining how earthquakes generate strong motions, and how we should design resistant structures.
Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro
Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of th...
Harada, O.; Kawai, N.; Ishii, T.; Sawada, Y.; Shiojiri, H.; Mazda, T.
Base isolation system is expected to be a technology for a rational design of FBR plant. In order to apply this system to important structures, accumulation of verification data is necessary. From this point of view, the vibration test and the earthquake response observation of the actual isolated building using laminated rubber bearings and elasto-plastic steel dampers were conducted for the purpose of investigating its dynamic behavior and of proving the reliability of the base isolation system. Since September in 1986, more than thirty earthquakes have been observed. This paper presents the results of the earthquake response observation
McLaren, Marcia K.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Van Der Elst, Nicholas; Unruh, Jeffrey R.; Bawden, Gerald W.; Blair, James Luke
We use data from two seismic networks and satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) imagery to characterize the 22 December 2003 Mw 6.5 San Simeon earthquake sequence. Absolute locations for the mainshock and nearly 10,000 aftershocks were determined using a new three-dimensional (3D) seismic velocity model; relative locations were obtained using double difference. The mainshock location found using the 3D velocity model is 35.704° N, 121.096° W at a depth of 9.7±0.7 km. The aftershocks concentrate at the northwest and southeast parts of the aftershock zone, between the mapped traces of the Oceanic and Nacimiento fault zones. The northwest end of the mainshock rupture, as defined by the aftershocks, projects from the mainshock hypocenter to the surface a few kilometers west of the mapped trace of the Oceanic fault, near the Santa Lucia Range front and the >5 mm postseismic InSAR imagery contour. The Oceanic fault in this area, as mapped by Hall (1991), is therefore probably a second-order synthetic thrust or reverse fault that splays upward from the main seismogenic fault at depth. The southeast end of the rupture projects closer to the mapped Oceanic fault trace, suggesting much of the slip was along this fault, or at a minimum is accommodating much of the postseismic deformation. InSAR imagery shows ∼72 mm of postseismic uplift in the vicinity of maximum coseismic slip in the central section of the rupture, and ∼48 and ∼45 mm at the northwest and southeast end of the aftershock zone, respectively. From these observations, we model a ∼30-km-long northwest-trending northeast-dipping mainshock rupture surface—called the mainthrust—which is likely the Oceanic fault at depth, a ∼10-km-long southwest-dipping backthrust parallel to the mainthrust near the hypocenter, several smaller southwest-dipping structures in the southeast, and perhaps additional northeast-dipping or subvertical structures southeast of the mainshock plane
States are as much as 30% lower for certain types of ground motion, called long-period seismic waves, which affect taller , multistory buildings. Ground...jump between connected faults. Earthquakes that occur along the Sierra Madre Fault in southern California, for example, could trigger a series of
de Groot, R.
The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has been developing groundbreaking computer modeling capabilities for studying earthquakes. These visualizations were initially shared within the scientific community but have recently gained visibility via television news coverage in Southern California. Computers have opened up a whole new world for scientists working with large data sets, and students can benefit from the same opportunities (Libarkin & Brick, 2002). For example, The Great Southern California ShakeOut was based on a potential magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault. The visualization created for the ShakeOut was a key scientific and communication tool for the earthquake drill. This presentation will also feature SCEC Virtual Display of Objects visualization software developed by SCEC Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology interns. According to Gordin and Pea (1995), theoretically visualization should make science accessible, provide means for authentic inquiry, and lay the groundwork to understand and critique scientific issues. This presentation will discuss how the new SCEC visualizations and other earthquake imagery achieve these results, how they fit within the context of major themes and study areas in science communication, and how the efficacy of these tools can be improved.
... North Dakota, and Wisconsin. The core of the earth was the first internal structural element to be identified. In 1906 R.D. Oldham discovered it from his studies of earthquake records. The inner core is solid, and the outer core is liquid and so does not transmit ...
Davis, Amanda; Gray, Ron
December 26, 2004 was one of the deadliest days in modern history, when a 9.3 magnitude earthquake--the third largest ever recorded--struck off the coast of Sumatra in Indonesia (National Centers for Environmental Information 2014). The massive quake lasted at least 10 minutes and devastated the Indian Ocean. The quake displaced an estimated…
Wilson, John Max; Yoder, Mark R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Schultz, Kasey W.
In this paper, we address the problem of verifying earthquake simulators with observed data. Earthquake simulators are a class of computational simulations which attempt to mirror the topological complexity of fault systems on which earthquakes occur. In addition, the physics of friction and elastic interactions between fault elements are included in these simulations. Simulation parameters are adjusted so that natural earthquake sequences are matched in their scaling properties. Physically based earthquake simulators can generate many thousands of years of simulated seismicity, allowing for a robust capture of the statistical properties of large, damaging earthquakes that have long recurrence time scales. Verification of simulations against current observed earthquake seismicity is necessary, and following past simulator and forecast model verification methods, we approach the challenges in spatial forecast verification to simulators; namely, that simulator outputs are confined to the modeled faults, while observed earthquake epicenters often occur off of known faults. We present two methods for addressing this discrepancy: a simplistic approach whereby observed earthquakes are shifted to the nearest fault element and a smoothing method based on the power laws of the epidemic-type aftershock (ETAS) model, which distributes the seismicity of each simulated earthquake over the entire test region at a decaying rate with epicentral distance. To test these methods, a receiver operating characteristic plot was produced by comparing the rate maps to observed m>6.0 earthquakes in California since 1980. We found that the nearest-neighbor mapping produced poor forecasts, while the ETAS power-law method produced rate maps that agreed reasonably well with observations.
Global rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured, using earthquakes listed in the Harvard CMT catalog for the period 1978-1996. These rates are similar to rates ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering, which is based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California, and were found to exceed the California model by a factor of approximately 2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, registered a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, measured a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have revealed low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggest the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich.
Bonneau, Dominique; Souchet, Dominique
This Series provides the necessary elements to the development and validation of numerical prediction models for hydrodynamic bearings. This book describes the rheological models and the equations of lubrication. It also presents the numerical approaches used to solve the above equations by finite differences, finite volumes and finite elements methods.
California Natural Resource Agency — California regions developed by the Inter-agency Natural Areas Coordinating Committee (INACC) were digitized from a 1:1,200,000 California Department of Fish and...
Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jackson, D.D.; Rhoades, D.A.
INTRODUCTIONThe Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project aims to produce and evaluate alternate models of earthquake potential (probability per unit volume, magnitude, and time) for California. Based on differing assumptions, these models are produced to test the validity of their assumptions and to explore which models should be incorporated in seismic hazard and risk evaluation. Tests based on physical and geological criteria are useful but we focus on statistical methods using future earthquake catalog data only. We envision two evaluations: a test of consistency with observed data and a comparison of all pairs of models for relative consistency. Both tests are based on the likelihood method, and both are fully prospective (i.e., the models are not adjusted to fit the test data). To be tested, each model must assign a probability to any possible event within a specified region of space, time, and magnitude. For our tests the models must use a common format: earthquake rates in specified “bins” with location, magnitude, time, and focal mechanism limits.Seismology cannot yet deterministically predict individual earthquakes; however, it should seek the best possible models for forecasting earthquake occurrence. This paper describes the statistical rules of an experiment to examine and test earthquake forecasts. The primary purposes of the tests described below are to evaluate physical models for earthquakes, assure that source models used in seismic hazard and risk studies are consistent with earthquake data, and provide quantitative measures by which models can be assigned weights in a consensus model or be judged as suitable for particular regions.In this paper we develop a statistical method for testing earthquake likelihood models. A companion paper (Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger 2007, this issue) discusses the actual implementation of these tests in the framework of the RELM initiative.Statistical testing of hypotheses is a common task and a
McGarr, Arthur F.; Bekins, Barbara; Burkardt, Nina; Dewey, James W.; Earle, Paul S.; Ellsworth, William L.; Ge, Shemin; Hickman, Stephen H.; Holland, Austin F.; Majer, Ernest; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Sheehan, Anne
Large areas of the United States long considered geologically stable with little or no detected seismicity have recently become seismically active. The increase in earthquake activity began in the mid-continent starting in 2001 (1) and has continued to rise. In 2014, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes with magnitudes (M) of 3 and greater in Oklahoma exceeded that in California (see the figure). This elevated activity includes larger earthquakes, several with M > 5, that have caused significant damage (2, 3). To a large extent, the increasing rate of earthquakes in the mid-continent is due to fluid-injection activities used in modern energy production (1, 4, 5). We explore potential avenues for mitigating effects of induced seismicity. Although the United States is our focus here, Canada, China, the UK, and others confront similar problems associated with oil and gas production, whereas quakes induced by geothermal activities affect Switzerland, Germany, and others.
Many earth scientists in this country and abroad are focusing their studies on the search for means of predicting impending earthquakes, but, as yet, an accurate prediction of the time and place of such an event cannot be made. From past experience, however, one can assume that earthquakes will continue to harass mankind and that they will occur most frequently in the areas where they have been relatively common in the past. In the United States, earthquakes can be expected to occur most frequently in the western states, particularly in Alaska, California, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Utah, and Montana. The danger, however, is not confined to any one part of the country; major earthquakes have occurred at widely scattered locations.
Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro
Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Lee, A.S.; Preece, G.E.
A hydrostatic bearing for the lower end of the vertical shaft of a sodium pump comprises a support shell encircling the shaft and a bush located between the shell and shaft. Liquid sodium is fed from the pump outlet to the bush/shaft and bush/shell interfaces to provide hydrostatic support. The bush outer surface and the shell inner surface are of complementary part-spherical shape and the bush floats relative to the shaft so that the bush can align itself with the shaft axis. Monitoring of the relative rotational speed of the bush with respect to the shaft (such rotation being induced by the viscous drag forces present) is also performed for the purposes of detecting abnormal operation of the bearing or partial seizure, at least one magnet is rotatable with the bush, and a magnetic sensor provides an output having a frequency related to the speed of the bush. (author)
determined after acquiring and analysing the orbits described by the journal axis for assigned unbalance values in different operating conditions. Analysis of the results shows some particular operating features that were not entirely predicted by the theoretical model and which may give rise to malfunctions in the rotor-tilting pad bearings system. The tests were carried out in the rotor dynamics laboratory of the Dipartimento di Ingegneria Meccanica per l'Energetica at the University of Naples.
Aoi, K.; Ozawa, T.
A bearing arrangement is described for the camshaft of an internal combustion engine or the like which camshaft is formed along its length in axial order with a first bearing surface, a first cam lobe, a second bearing surface, a second cam lobe, a third bearing surface, a third cam lobe and a fourth bearing surface, the improvement comprising first bearing means extending around substantially the full circumference of the first bearing surface and journaling the first bearing surface, second bearing means extending around substantially less than the circumference of the second bearing surface and journaling the second bearing surface, third bearing means extending around substantially less than the circumference of the third bearing surface and journaling the third bearing surface, and fourth bearing means extending around substantially the full circumference of the fourth bearing surface and journaling the first bearing surface.
Stein, R. S.
The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra earthquake claimed what seemed an unfathomable 228,000 lives, although because of its size, we could at least assure ourselves that it was an extremely rare event. But in the short space of 8 years, the Sumatra quake no longer looks like an anomaly, and it is no longer even the worst disaster of the Century: 80,000 deaths in the 2005 M=7.6 Pakistan quake; 88,000 deaths in the 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China quake; 316,000 deaths in the M=7.0 Haiti, quake. In each case, poor design and construction were unable to withstand the ferocity of the shaken earth. And this was compounded by inadequate rescue, medical care, and shelter. How could the toll continue to mount despite the advances in our understanding of quake risk? The world's population is flowing into megacities, and many of these migration magnets lie astride the plate boundaries. Caught between these opposing demographic and seismic forces are 50 cities of at least 3 million people threatened by large earthquakes, the targets of chance. What we know for certain is that no one will take protective measures unless they are convinced they are at risk. Furnishing that knowledge is the animating principle of the Global Earthquake Model, launched in 2009. At the very least, everyone should be able to learn what his or her risk is. At the very least, our community owes the world an estimate of that risk. So, first and foremost, GEM seeks to raise quake risk awareness. We have no illusions that maps or models raise awareness; instead, earthquakes do. But when a quake strikes, people need a credible place to go to answer the question, how vulnerable am I, and what can I do about it? The Global Earthquake Model is being built with GEM's new open source engine, OpenQuake. GEM is also assembling the global data sets without which we will never improve our understanding of where, how large, and how frequently earthquakes will strike, what impacts they will have, and how those impacts can be lessened by
Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural hazards on our planet Earth. Hugh earthquakes striking offshore may cause devastating tsunamis, as evidenced by the 11 March 2011 Japan (moment magnitude Mw9.0) and the 26 December 2004 Sumatra (Mw9.1) earthquakes. Earthquake prediction (in terms of the precise time, place, and magnitude of a coming earthquake) is arguably unfeasible in the foreseeable future. To mitigate seismic hazards from future earthquakes in earthquake-prone areas, such as California and Japan, scientists have been using numerical simulations to study earthquake rupture propagation along faults and seismic wave propagation in the surrounding media on ever-advancing modern computers over past several decades. In particular, ground motion simulations for past and future (possible) significant earthquakes have been performed to understand factors that affect ground shaking in populated areas, and to provide ground shaking characteristics and synthetic seismograms for emergency preparation and design of earthquake-resistant structures. These simulation results can guide the development of more rational seismic provisions for leading to safer, more efficient, and economical50pt]Please provide V. Taylor author e-mail ID. structures in earthquake-prone regions.
Because of Taiwan’s unique geographical environment, earthquake disasters occur frequently in Taiwan. The Central Weather Bureau collated earthquake data from between 1901 and 2006 (Central Weather Bureau, 2007) and found that 97 earthquakes had occurred, of which, 52 resulted in casualties. The 921 Chichi Earthquake had the most profound impact. Because earthquakes have instant destructive power and current scientific technologies cannot provide precise early warnings in advance, earthquake ...
Wald, Lisa A.; Wald, David J.; Schwarz, Stan; Presgrave, Bruce; Earle, Paul S.; Martinez, Eric; Oppenheimer, David
At the beginning of 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) introduced a new automated Earthquake Notification Service (ENS) to take the place of the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) "Bigquake" system and the various other individual EHP e-mail list-servers for separate regions in the United States. These included northern California, southern California, and the central and eastern United States. ENS is a "one-stop shopping" system that allows Internet users to subscribe to flexible and customizable notifications for earthquakes anywhere in the world. The customization capability allows users to define the what (magnitude threshold), the when (day and night thresholds), and the where (specific regions) for their notifications. Customization is achieved by employing a per-user based request profile, allowing the notifications to be tailored for each individual's requirements. Such earthquake-parameter-specific custom delivery was not possible with simple e-mail list-servers. Now that event and user profiles are in a structured query language (SQL) database, additional flexibility is possible. At the time of this writing, ENS had more than 114,000 subscribers, with more than 200,000 separate user profiles. On a typical day, more than 188,000 messages get sent to a variety of widely distributed users for a wide range of earthquake locations and magnitudes. The purpose of this article is to describe how ENS works, highlight the features it offers, and summarize plans for future developments.
Hough, S. E.
The 2014 South Napa earthquake provides an opportunity to reconsider the Mare Island earthquake of 31 March 1898, which caused severe damage to buildings at a Navy yard on the island. Revising archival accounts of the 1898 earthquake, I estimate a lower intensity magnitude, 5.8, than the value in the current Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) catalog (6.4). However, I note that intensity magnitude can differ from Mw by upwards of half a unit depending on stress drop, which for a historical earthquake is unknowable. In the aftermath of the 2014 earthquake, there has been speculation that apparently severe effects on Mare Island in 1898 were due to the vulnerability of local structures. No surface rupture has ever been identified from the 1898 event, which is commonly associated with the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault system, some 10 km west of Mare Island (e.g., Parsons et al., 2003). Reconsideration of detailed archival accounts of the 1898 earthquake, together with a comparison of the intensity distributions for the two earthquakes, points to genuinely severe, likely near-field ground motions on Mare Island. The 2014 earthquake did cause significant damage to older brick buildings on Mare Island, but the level of damage does not match the severity of documented damage in 1898. The high intensity files for the two earthquakes are more over spatially shifted, with the centroid of the 2014 distribution near the town of Napa and that of the 1898 distribution near Mare Island, east of the Hayward-Rodgers Creek system. I conclude that the 1898 Mare Island earthquake was centered on or near Mare Island, possibly involving rupture of one or both strands of the Franklin fault, a low-slip-rate fault sub-parallel to the Rodgers Creek fault to the west and the West Napa fault to the east. I estimate Mw5.8 assuming an average stress drop; data are also consistent with Mw6.4 if stress drop was a factor of ≈3 lower than average for California earthquakes. I
The driving shaft bearings of the Unit 1 overhead bridge crane were damaged by the Great East Japan Earthquake at Onagawa Nuclear Power Station. The situation, investigation and repair works of the bearing failure are introduced in this paper. (author)
Chen, X.; Shearer, P. M.
Previous studies of the source spectra of small earthquakes in southern California show that average Brune-type stress drops vary among different regions, with particularly low stress drops observed in the Salton Trough (Shearer et al., 2006). The Salton Trough marks the southern end of the San Andreas Fault and is prone to earthquake swarms, some of which are driven by aseismic creep events (Lohman and McGuire, 2007). In order to learn the stress state and understand the physical mechanisms of swarms and slow slip events, we analyze the source spectra of earthquakes in this region. We obtain Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) waveforms for earthquakes from 1977 to 2009 archived at the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) data center, which includes over 17,000 events. After resampling the data to a uniform 100 Hz sample rate, we compute spectra for both signal and noise windows for each seismogram, and select traces with a P-wave signal-to-noise ratio greater than 5 between 5 Hz and 15 Hz. Using selected displacement spectra, we isolate the source spectra from station terms and path effects using an empirical Green’s function approach. From the corrected source spectra, we compute corner frequencies and estimate moments and stress drops. Finally we analyze spatial and temporal variations in stress drop in the Salton Trough and compare them with studies of swarms and creep events to assess the evolution of faulting and stress in the region. References: Lohman, R. B., and J. J. McGuire (2007), Earthquake swarms driven by aseismic creep in the Salton Trough, California, J. Geophys. Res., 112, B04405, doi:10.1029/2006JB004596 Shearer, P. M., G. A. Prieto, and E. Hauksson (2006), Comprehensive analysis of earthquake source spectra in southern California, J. Geophys. Res., 111, B06303, doi:10.1029/2005JB003979.
Clough, R.W.; Bertero, V.V.; Bouwkamp, J.G.; Popov, E.P.
The objectives, methods, and some of the principal results obtained from experimental studies of the behavior of structures subjected to earthquakes are described. Although such investigations are being conducted in many laboratories throughout the world, the information presented deals specifically with projects being carried out at the Earthquake Engineering Research Center (EERC) of the University of California, Berkeley. A primary purpose of these investigations is to obtain detailed information on the inelastic response mechanisms in typical structural systems so that the experimentally observed performance can be compared with computer generated analytical predictions. Only by such comparisons can the mathematical models used in dynamic nonlinear analyses be verified and improved. Two experimental procedures for investigating earthquake structural response are discussed: the earthquake simulator facility which subjects the base of the test structure to acceleration histories similar to those recorded in actual earthquakes, and systems of hydraulic rams which impose specified displacement histories on the test components, equivalent to motions developed in structures subjected to actual'quakes. The general concept and performance of the 20ft square EERC earthquake simulator is described, and the testing of a two story concrete frame building is outlined. Correlation of the experimental results with analytical predictions demonstrates that satisfactory agreement can be obtained only if the mathematical model incorporates a stiffness deterioration mechanism which simulates the cracking and other damage suffered by the structure
Jones, L.; Mori, J.; Hauksson, E.
Early on the morning of June 28, 1992, millions of people in southern California were awakened by the largest earthquake to occur in the western United States in the past 40 yrs. At 4:58 a.m PDT (local time), faulting associated with the magnitude 7.3 earthquake broke through to earth's surface near the town of Landers, California. the surface rupture then propagated 70km (45 mi) to the north and northwest along a band of faults passing through the middle of the Mojave Desert. Fortunately, the strongest shaking occurred in uninhabited regions of the Mojave Desert. Still one child was killed in Yucca Valley, and about 400 people were injured in the surrounding area. the desert communities of Landers, Yucca Valley, and Joshua Tree in San Bernardino Country suffered considerable damage to buildings and roads. Damage to water and power lines caused problems in many areas.
Liquefaction Hazard Maps for Three Earthquake Scenarios for the Communities of San Jose, Campbell, Cupertino, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Milpitas, Mountain View, Palo Alto, Santa Clara, Saratoga, and Sunnyvale, Northern Santa Clara County, California
Holzer, Thomas L.; Noce, Thomas E.; Bennett, Michael J.
Maps showing the probability of surface manifestations of liquefaction in the northern Santa Clara Valley were prepared with liquefaction probability curves. The area includes the communities of San Jose, Campbell, Cupertino, Los Altos, Los Gatos Milpitas, Mountain View, Palo Alto, Santa Clara, Saratoga, and Sunnyvale. The probability curves were based on complementary cumulative frequency distributions of the liquefaction potential index (LPI) for surficial geologic units in the study area. LPI values were computed with extensive cone penetration test soundings. Maps were developed for three earthquake scenarios, an M7.8 on the San Andreas Fault comparable to the 1906 event, an M6.7 on the Hayward Fault comparable to the 1868 event, and an M6.9 on the Calaveras Fault. Ground motions were estimated with the Boore and Atkinson (2008) attenuation relation. Liquefaction is predicted for all three events in young Holocene levee deposits along the major creeks. Liquefaction probabilities are highest for the M7.8 earthquake, ranging from 0.33 to 0.37 if a 1.5-m deep water table is assumed, and 0.10 to 0.14 if a 5-m deep water table is assumed. Liquefaction probabilities of the other surficial geologic units are less than 0.05. Probabilities for the scenario earthquakes are generally consistent with observations during historical earthquakes.
Eli, M.W.; Sommer, S.C.
Southern California has a history of major earthquakes and also has one of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States. The 1994 Northridge Earthquake challenged the industrial facilities and lifetime infrastructure in the northern Los Angeles (LA) area. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) sent a team of engineers to conduct an earthquake damage investigation in the Northridge area, on a project funded jointly by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the United States Department of Energy (USDOE). Many of the structures, systems, and components (SSCs) and lifelines that suffered damage are similar to those found in nuclear power plants and in USDOE facilities. Lessons learned from these experiences can have some applicability at commercial nuclear power plants
Schorlemmer, D.; Jordan, T. H.; Zechar, J. D.; Gerstenberger, M. C.; Wiemer, S.; Maechling, P. J.
Earthquake prediction is one of the most difficult problems in physical science and, owing to its societal implications, one of the most controversial. The study of earthquake predictability has been impeded by the lack of an adequate experimental infrastructure---the capability to conduct scientific prediction experiments under rigorous, controlled conditions and evaluate them using accepted criteria specified in advance. To remedy this deficiency, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) is working with its international partners, which include the European Union (through the Swiss Seismological Service) and New Zealand (through GNS Science), to develop a virtual, distributed laboratory with a cyberinfrastructure adequate to support a global program of research on earthquake predictability. This Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) will extend the testing activities of SCEC's Working Group on Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models, from which we will present first results. CSEP will support rigorous procedures for registering prediction experiments on regional and global scales, community-endorsed standards for assessing probability-based and alarm-based predictions, access to authorized data sets and monitoring products from designated natural laboratories, and software to allow researchers to participate in prediction experiments. CSEP will encourage research on earthquake predictability by supporting an environment for scientific prediction experiments that allows the predictive skill of proposed algorithms to be rigorously compared with standardized reference methods and data sets. It will thereby reduce the controversies surrounding earthquake prediction, and it will allow the results of prediction experiments to be communicated to the scientific community, governmental agencies, and the general public in an appropriate research context.
Progress in seismic qualification of nuclear power plants as reviewed at the 4th Pacific Basin Nuclear Conference in Vancouver, September 1983, is discussed. The lack of experience of earthquakes in existing nuclear plants can be compensated by the growing experience of actual earthquake effects in conventional power plants and similar installations. A survey of the effects on four power stations, with a total of twenty generating units, in the area strongly shaken by the San Fernando earthquake in California in 1971 is reported. The Canadian approach to seismic qualification, international criteria, Canadian/Korean experience, safety related equipment, the Tadotsu test facility and seismic tests are discussed. (U.K.)
Yan Y. Kagan
Full Text Available We present a model for estimation of the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m ≥ 4.95 in Italy. This model is a modified version of that proposed for California, USA, by Helmstetter et al.  and Werner et al. [2010a], and it approximates seismicity using a spatially heterogeneous, temporally homogeneous Poisson point process. The temporal, spatial and magnitude dimensions are entirely decoupled. Magnitudes are independently and identically distributed according to a tapered Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution. We have estimated the spatial distribution of future seismicity by smoothing the locations of past earthquakes listed in two Italian catalogs: a short instrumental catalog, and a longer instrumental and historic catalog. The bandwidth of the adaptive spatial kernel is estimated by optimizing the predictive power of the kernel estimate of the spatial earthquake density in retrospective forecasts. When available and reliable, we used small earthquakes of m ≥ 2.95 to reveal active fault structures and 29 probable future epicenters. By calibrating the model with these two catalogs of different durations to create two forecasts, we intend to quantify the loss (or gain of predictability incurred when only a short, but recent, data record is available. Both forecasts were scaled to five and ten years, and have been submitted to the Italian prospective forecasting experiment of the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP. An earlier forecast from the model was submitted by Helmstetter et al.  to the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model (RELM experiment in California, and with more than half of the five-year experimental period over, the forecast has performed better than the others.
Kerr, R. A.
Recent earthquakes and a new way of looking at faults suggest that damaging earthquakes are closing in on the San Francisco area. Earthquakes Awareness Week 1989 in northern California started off with a bang on Monday, 3 April, when a magnitude 4.8 earthquake struck 15 kilometers northeast of San Jose. The relatively small shock-its primary damage was the shattering of an air-control tower window-got the immediate attention of three U.S Geological Survey seismologists in Menlo Park near San Francisco. David Oppenheimer, William Bakun, and Allan Lindh had forecast a nearby earthquake in a just completed report, and this, they thought, might be it.
Mazzella, A; Morrison, H F
A 24 percent precursory change in apparent electrical resistivity was observed before a magnitude 3.9 earthquake of strike-slip nature on the San Andreas fault in central California. The experimental configuration and numerical calculations suggest that the change is associated with a volume at depth rather than some near-surface phenomenon. The character and duration of the precursor period agree well with those of other earthquake studies and support a dilatant earthquake mechanism model.
yoder, M. R.; Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.
The difficulty of forecasting earthquakes can fundamentally be attributed to the self-similar, or "1/f", nature of seismic sequences. Specifically, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes is inversely proportional to their magnitude m, or more accurately to their scalar moment M. With respect to this "1/f problem," it can be argued that catalog selection (or equivalently, determining catalog constraints) constitutes the most significant challenge to seismicity based earthquake forecasting. Here, we address and introduce a potential solution to this most daunting problem. Specifically, we introduce a framework to constrain, or partition, an earthquake catalog (a study region) in order to resolve local seismicity. In particular, we combine Gutenberg-Richter (GR), rupture length, and Omori scaling with various empirical measurements to relate the size (spatial and temporal extents) of a study area (or bins within a study area) to the local earthquake magnitude potential - the magnitude of earthquake the region is expected to experience. From this, we introduce a new type of time dependent hazard map for which the tuning parameter space is nearly fully constrained. In a similar fashion, by combining various scaling relations and also by incorporating finite extents (rupture length, area, and duration) as constraints, we develop a method to estimate the Omori (temporal) and spatial aftershock decay parameters as a function of the parent earthquake's magnitude m. From this formulation, we develop an ETAS type model that overcomes many point-source limitations of contemporary ETAS. These models demonstrate promise with respect to earthquake forecasting applications. Moreover, the methods employed suggest a general framework whereby earthquake and other complex-system, 1/f type, problems can be constrained from scaling relations and finite extents.; Record-breaking hazard map of southern California, 2012-08-06. "Warm" colors indicate local acceleration (elevated hazard
Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Manga, Michael
Earthquake prediction is a long-sought goal. Changes in groundwater chemistry before earthquakes in Iceland highlight a potential hydrogeochemical precursor, but such signals must be evaluated in the context of long-term, multiparametric data sets.
Ts' ai, T H
Chinese folk wisdom has long seen a relationship between ground water and earthquakes. Before an earthquake there is often an unusual change in the ground water level and volume of flow. Changes in the amount of particulate matter in ground water as well as changes in color, bubbling, gas emission, and noises and geysers are also often observed before earthquakes. Analysis of these features can help predict earthquakes. Other factors unrelated to earthquakes can cause some of these changes, too. As a first step it is necessary to find sites which are sensitive to changes in ground stress to be used as sensor points for predicting earthquakes. The necessary features are described. Recording of seismic waves of earthquake aftershocks is also an important part of earthquake predictions.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Southern California residents were rudely awakened Sunday morning June 28, 1992 at 04:57 am (June 28 at 11:57 GMT), by an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 (Ms) followed...
Bulachenko, A.L.; Oraevskij, V.N.; Pokhotelov, O.A.; Sorokin, V.N.; Strakhov, V.N.; Chmyrev, V.M.
Results of experimental study on ionospheric earthquake precursors, program development on processes in the earthquake focus and physical mechanisms of formation of various type precursors are considered. Composition of experimental cosmic system for earthquake precursors monitoring is determined. 36 refs., 5 figs
Simsek, Canan Lacin
Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…
Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.
Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.
Post, Richard F [Walnut Creek, CA
A journal bearing provides vertical and radial stability to a rotor of a passive magnetic bearing system when the rotor is not rotating and when it is rotating. In the passive magnetic bearing system, the rotor has a vertical axis of rotation. Without the journal bearing, the rotor is vertically and radially unstable when stationary, and is vertically stable and radially unstable when rotating.
Perry, Suzanne; Cox, Dale; Jones, Lucile; Bernknopf, Richard; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne
The question is not if but when southern California will be hit by a major earthquake - one so damaging that it will permanently change lives and livelihoods in the region. How severe the changes will be depends on the actions that individuals, schools, businesses, organizations, communities, and governments take to get ready. To help prepare for this event, scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have changed the way that earthquake scenarios are done, uniting a multidisciplinary team that spans an unprecedented number of specialties. The team includes the California Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, and nearly 200 other partners in government, academia, emergency response, and industry, working to understand the long-term impacts of an enormous earthquake on the complicated social and economic interactions that sustain southern California society. This project, the ShakeOut Scenario, has applied the best current scientific understanding to identify what can be done now to avoid an earthquake catastrophe. More information on the science behind this project will be available in The ShakeOut Scenario (USGS Open-File Report 2008-1150; http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/). The 'what if?' earthquake modeled in the ShakeOut Scenario is a magnitude 7.8 on the southern San Andreas Fault. Geologists selected the details of this hypothetical earthquake by considering the amount of stored strain on that part of the fault with the greatest risk of imminent rupture. From this, seismologists and computer scientists modeled the ground shaking that would occur in this earthquake. Engineers and other professionals used the shaking to produce a realistic picture of this earthquake's damage to buildings, roads, pipelines, and other infrastructure. From these damages, social scientists projected casualties, emergency response, and the impact of the scenario earthquake on southern California's economy and society. The earthquake, its damages, and
Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.
Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.
Mignan, A.; Muir-Wood, R.
Given the difficulty of judging whether the skill of a particular methodology of earthquake forecasts is offset by the inevitable false alarms and missed predictions, it is important to find a means to weigh the successes and failures according to a common currency. Rather than judge subjectively the relative costs and benefits of predictions, we develop a simple method to determine if the use of earthquake forecasts can increase the profitability of active financial risk management strategies employed in standard insurance procedures. Three types of risk management transactions are employed: (1) insurance underwriting, (2) reinsurance purchasing and (3) investment in CAT bonds. For each case premiums are collected based on modelled technical risk costs and losses are modelled for the portfolio in force at the time of the earthquake. A set of predetermined actions follow from the announcement of any change in earthquake hazard, so that, for each earthquake forecaster, the financial performance of an active risk management strategy can be compared with the equivalent passive strategy in which no notice is taken of earthquake forecasts. Overall performance can be tracked through time to determine which strategy gives the best long term financial performance. This will be determined by whether the skill in forecasting the location and timing of a significant earthquake (where loss is avoided) is outweighed by false predictions (when no premium is collected). This methodology is to be tested in California, where catastrophe modeling is reasonably mature and where a number of researchers issue earthquake forecasts.
This review briefly describes two other books on the same subject either written or partially written by Rikitake. In this book, the status of earthquake prediction efforts in Japan, China, the Soviet Union, and the United States are updated. An overview of some of the organizational, legal, and societal aspects of earthquake prediction in these countries is presented, and scientific findings of precursory phenomena are included. A summary of circumstances surrounding the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, the 1978 Tangshan earthquake, and the 1976 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake (all magnitudes = 7.0) in China and the 1978 Izu-Oshima earthquake in Japan is presented. This book fails to comprehensively summarize recent advances in earthquake prediction research.
Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki
The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.
Skjei, R.E.; Chakravartula, B.C.; Yanev, P.I.
The history of earthquake damage and the resulting code design requirements for earthquake hazard mitigation for equipment in the USA is reviewed. Earthquake damage to essential service systems is summarized; observations for the 1964 Alaska and the 1971 San Fernando, California, earthquakes are stressed, and information from other events is included. USA building codes that reflect lessons learned from these earthquakes are discussed; brief summaries of widely used codes are presented. In conclusion there is a discussion of the desirability of adapting advanced technological concepts from the nuclear industry to equipment in conventional structures. (author)
Jiang, Junle; Lapusta, Nadia
Why many major strike-slip faults known to have had large earthquakes are silent in the interseismic period is a long-standing enigma. One would expect small earthquakes to occur at least at the bottom of the seismogenic zone, where deeper aseismic deformation concentrates loading. We suggest that the absence of such concentrated microseismicity indicates deep rupture past the seismogenic zone in previous large earthquakes. We support this conclusion with numerical simulations of fault behavior and observations of recent major events. Our modeling implies that the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California penetrated below the seismogenic zone by at least 3 to 5 kilometers. Our findings suggest that such deeper ruptures may occur on other major fault segments, potentially increasing the associated seismic hazard. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Krishna Mohan, T. R.; Revathi, P. G.
We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to extract causally connected earthquake pairs. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski [M. Baiesi and M. Paczuski, Phys. Rev. E EULEEJ1539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.69.06610669, 066106 (2004)]. A network of earthquakes is then constructed from the time-ordered catalog and with links between the more correlated ones. A list of recurrences to each of the earthquakes is identified employing correlation thresholds to demarcate the most meaningful ones in each cluster. Data pertaining to three different seismic regions (viz., California, Japan, and the Himalayas) are comparatively analyzed using such a network model. The distribution of recurrence lengths and recurrence times are two of the key features analyzed to draw conclusions about the universal aspects of such a network model. We find that the unimodal feature of recurrence length distribution, which helps to associate typical rupture lengths with different magnitude earthquakes, is robust across the different seismic regions. The out-degree of the networks shows a hub structure rooted on the large magnitude earthquakes. In-degree distribution is seen to be dependent on the density of events in the neighborhood. Power laws, with two regimes having different exponents, are obtained with recurrence time distribution. The first regime confirms the Omori law for aftershocks while the second regime, with a faster falloff for the larger recurrence times, establishes that pure spatial recurrences also follow a power-law distribution. The crossover to the second power-law regime can be taken to be signaling the end of the aftershock regime in an objective fashion.
Krishna Mohan, T. R.; Revathi, P. G.
We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to extract causally connected earthquake pairs. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski [M. Baiesi and M. Paczuski, Phys. Rev. E 69, 066106 (2004)]. A network of earthquakes is then constructed from the time-ordered catalog and with links between the more correlated ones. A list of recurrences to each of the earthquakes is identified employing correlation thresholds to demarcate the most meaningful ones in each cluster. Data pertaining to three different seismic regions (viz., California, Japan, and the Himalayas) are comparatively analyzed using such a network model. The distribution of recurrence lengths and recurrence times are two of the key features analyzed to draw conclusions about the universal aspects of such a network model. We find that the unimodal feature of recurrence length distribution, which helps to associate typical rupture lengths with different magnitude earthquakes, is robust across the different seismic regions. The out-degree of the networks shows a hub structure rooted on the large magnitude earthquakes. In-degree distribution is seen to be dependent on the density of events in the neighborhood. Power laws, with two regimes having different exponents, are obtained with recurrence time distribution. The first regime confirms the Omori law for aftershocks while the second regime, with a faster falloff for the larger recurrence times, establishes that pure spatial recurrences also follow a power-law distribution. The crossover to the second power-law regime can be taken to be signaling the end of the aftershock regime in an objective fashion.
Kougioumtzoglou, Ioannis; Patelli, Edoardo; Au, Siu-Kui
The Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering is designed to be the authoritative and comprehensive reference covering all major aspects of the science of earthquake engineering, specifically focusing on the interaction between earthquakes and infrastructure. The encyclopedia comprises approximately 265 contributions. Since earthquake engineering deals with the interaction between earthquake disturbances and the built infrastructure, the emphasis is on basic design processes important to both non-specialists and engineers so that readers become suitably well-informed without needing to deal with the details of specialist understanding. The content of this encyclopedia provides technically inclined and informed readers about the ways in which earthquakes can affect our infrastructure and how engineers would go about designing against, mitigating and remediating these effects. The coverage ranges from buildings, foundations, underground construction, lifelines and bridges, roads, embankments and slopes. The encycl...
Miller, G. J.
The earthquake that struck the island of Guam on November 1, 1975, at 11:17 a.m had many unique aspects-not the least of which was the experience of an earthquake of 6.25 Richter magnitude while at 40 feet. My wife Bonnie, a fellow diver, Greg Guzman, and I were diving at Gabgab Beach in teh outer harbor of Apra Harbor, engaged in underwater phoyography when the earthquake struck.
Fisker, Peter Simonsen
This study explores the economic consequences of earthquakes. In particular, it is investigated how exposure to earthquakes affects economic growth both across and within countries. The key result of the empirical analysis is that while there are no observable effects at the country level, earthquake exposure significantly decreases 5-year economic growth at the local level. Areas at lower stages of economic development suffer harder in terms of economic growth than richer areas. In addition,...
Allen, R. M.
Earthquakes pose a significant threat to society in the U.S. and around the world. The risk is easily forgotten given the infrequent recurrence of major damaging events, yet the likelihood of a major earthquake in California in the next 30 years is greater than 99%. As our societal infrastructure becomes ever more interconnected, the potential impacts of these future events are difficult to predict. Yet, the same inter-connected infrastructure also allows us to rapidly detect earthquakes as they begin, and provide seconds, tens or seconds, or a few minutes warning. A demonstration earthquake early warning system is now operating in California and is being expanded to the west coast (www.ShakeAlert.org). In recent earthquakes in the Los Angeles region, alerts were generated that could have provided warning to the vast majority of Los Angelinos who experienced the shaking. Efforts are underway to build a public system. Smartphone technology will be used not only to issue that alerts, but could also be used to collect data, and improve the warnings. The MyShake project at UC Berkeley is currently testing an app that attempts to turn millions of smartphones into earthquake-detectors. As our development of the technology continues, we can anticipate ever-more automated response to earthquake alerts. Already, the BART system in the San Francisco Bay Area automatically stops trains based on the alerts. In the future, elevators will stop, machinery will pause, hazardous materials will be isolated, and self-driving cars will pull-over to the side of the road. In this presentation we will review the current status of the earthquake early warning system in the US. We will illustrate how smartphones can contribute to the system. Finally, we will review applications of the information to reduce future losses.
Keyantash, J.; Sperber, S.
During Spring 2005, an inquiry-based curriculum for plate tectonics was developed for implementation in sixth-grade classrooms within the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD). Two cohorts of LAUSD teachers received training and orientation to the plate tectonics unit during one week workshops in July 2005. However, during the training workshops, it was observed that there was considerable confusion among the teachers as to how the traditional "textbook" explanation of the time lag between P and S waves on a seismogram could possibly be used to determine the epicenter of an earthquake. One of the State of California science content standards for sixth grade students is that they understand how the epicenters of earthquakes are determined, so it was critical that the teachers themselves grasped the concept. In response to the adult learner difficulties, the classroom explanation of earthquake epicenter location was supplemented with an outdoor kinesthetic activity. Based upon the experience of the kinesthetic model, it was found that the hands-on model greatly cemented the teachers' understanding of the underlying theory. This paper details the steps of the kinesthetic demonstration for earthquake epicenter identification, as well as offering extended options for its classroom implementation.
Wein, Anne; Johnson, Laurie; Bernknopf, Richard
Recovery from an earthquake like the M7.8 ShakeOut Scenario will be a major endeavor taking many years to complete. Hundreds of Southern California municipalities will be affected; most lack recovery plans or previous disaster experience. To support recovery planning this paper 1) extends the regional ShakeOut Scenario analysis into the recovery period using a recovery model, 2) localizes analyses to identify longer-term impacts and issues in two communities, and 3) considers the regional context of local recovery.Key community insights about preparing for post-disaster recovery include the need to: geographically diversify city procurement; set earthquake mitigation priorities for critical infrastructure (e.g., airport), plan to replace mobile homes with earthquake safety measures, consider post-earthquake redevelopment opportunities ahead of time, and develop post-disaster recovery management and governance structures. This work also showed that communities with minor damages are still sensitive to regional infrastructure damages and their potential long-term impacts on community recovery. This highlights the importance of community and infrastructure resilience strategies as well.
van Leeuwen, Theo; Caldas-Coulthardt, Carmen
This paper presents a semiotic analysis of a key cultural artefact, the teddy bear. After introducing the iconography of the teddy bear, it analyses different kinds of stories to show how teddy bears are endowed with meaning in everyday life: stories from children's books, reminiscenses by adults...... bears have traditionally centred on interpersonal relations within the nuclear family, but have recently been institutionalized and commercialized....
Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.
Earthquake magnitude distributions among faults within a fault system are determined from regional seismicity and fault slip rates using binary integer programming. A synthetic earthquake catalog (i.e., list of randomly sampled magnitudes) that spans millennia is first formed, assuming that regional seismicity follows a Gutenberg-Richter relation. Each earthquake in the synthetic catalog can occur on any fault and at any location. The objective is to minimize misfits in the target slip rate for each fault, where slip for each earthquake is scaled from its magnitude. The decision vector consists of binary variables indicating which locations are optimal among all possibilities. Uncertainty estimates in fault slip rates provide explicit upper and lower bounding constraints to the problem. An implicit constraint is that an earthquake can only be located on a fault if it is long enough to contain that earthquake. A general mixed-integer programming solver, consisting of a number of different algorithms, is used to determine the optimal decision vector. A case study is presented for the State of California, where a 4 kyr synthetic earthquake catalog is created and faults with slip ≥3 mm/yr are considered, resulting in >106 variables. The optimal magnitude distributions for each of the faults in the system span a rich diversity of shapes, ranging from characteristic to power-law distributions.
Klein, F W
Several correlations between peak earthquake activity during swarms and the phase and stress orientation of the calculated solid earth tide are described. The events correlating with the tide are clusters of swarm earthquakes. Swarm clusters from many sequences recorded over several years are used. Significant tidal correlations (which have less than a 5% chance of being observed if earthquakes were random) are found in the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland, the central Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the Imperial Valley and northern Gulf of California, and larger (m/sub b/ greater than or equal to 5.0) aftershocks of the 1965 Rat Islands earthquake. In addition, sets of larger single earthquakes on Atlantic and north-east Pacific fracture zones are significantly correlated with the calculated solid tide. No tidal correlation, however, could be found for the Matsushiro Japan swarm of 1965 to 1967. The earthquake-tide correlations other than those of the Reykjanes Peninsula and Mid-Atlantic Ridge can be interpreted as triggering caused by enhancement of the tectonic stress by tidal stress, i.e. the alignment of fault and tidal principal stresses. All tidal correlations except in the Aleutians are associated with oceanic rifts or their landward extensions. If lithospheric plates are decoupled at active rifts, then tidal stresses channeled along the lithospheric stress guide may be concentrated at ridge-type plate boundaries. Tidal triggering of earthquakes at rifts may reflect this possible amplification of tidal strains in the weakened lithosphere at ridges. 25 figures, 2 tables.
Taniguchi, S.; Ezaki, Z.; Kawaguchi, K.; Matsumura, N.; Kozima, M.
This paper mainly describes recent studies and successful applications of water lubricated bearing and gas lubricated bearing. Both types of bearing seem to be suitable for a turbo machine installed in an atomic energy plant - such as the helium circulator of a HTGR - not to be affected by radioactivity, so we have been attracted by them for about 10 years. The former was investigated theoretically taking account of turbulent flow due to the low viscosity of water, and compared with the experimental data. Good agreement was obtained, and a successful example applied to a small-sized high speed air compressor is shown. The latter was investigated using a large-sized bearing test rig simulated to an actual machine. The tilting pad journal bearing and the tilting pad thrust bearing were taken and improved for some aspects. These bearings have been taken into service on an actual circulator and are now operating successfully. Currently, a magnetic bearing is being studied to pay special attention to endurance for an earthquake and catcher bearing system. We would like to have an opportunity to present these results in the near future. (author). 5 refs, 15 figs, 2 tabs
Earle, P. S.; Guy, M.; Ostrum, C.; Horvath, S.; Buckmaster, R. A.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public, text messages, can augment its earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The goal is to gather near real-time, earthquake-related messages (tweets) and provide geo-located earthquake detections and rough maps of the corresponding felt areas. Twitter and other social Internet technologies are providing the general public with anecdotal earthquake hazard information before scientific information has been published from authoritative sources. People local to an event often publish information within seconds via these technologies. In contrast, depending on the location of the earthquake, scientific alerts take between 2 to 20 minutes. Examining the tweets following the March 30, 2009, M4.3 Morgan Hill earthquake shows it is possible (in some cases) to rapidly detect and map the felt area of an earthquake using Twitter responses. Within a minute of the earthquake, the frequency of “earthquake” tweets rose above the background level of less than 1 per hour to about 150 per minute. Using the tweets submitted in the first minute, a rough map of the felt area can be obtained by plotting the tweet locations. Mapping the tweets from the first six minutes shows observations extending from Monterey to Sacramento, similar to the perceived shaking region mapped by the USGS “Did You Feel It” system. The tweets submitted after the earthquake also provided (very) short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking. Accurately assessing the potential and robustness of a Twitter-based system is difficult because only tweets spanning the previous seven days can be searched, making a historical study impossible. We have, however, been archiving tweets for several months, and it is clear that significant limitations do exist. The main drawback is the lack of quantitative information
Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.
contribution of building stock, its relative vulnerability, and distribution are vital components for determining the extent of casualties during an earthquake. It is evident from large deadly historical earthquakes that the distribution of vulnerable structures and their occupancy level during an earthquake control the severity of human losses. For example, though the number of strong earthquakes in California is comparable to that of Iran, the total earthquake-related casualties in California during the last 100 years are dramatically lower than the casualties from several individual Iranian earthquakes. The relatively low casualties count in California is attributed mainly to the fact that more than 90 percent of the building stock in California is made of wood and is designed to withstand moderate to large earthquakes (Kircher, Seligson and others, 2006). In contrast, the 80 percent adobe and or non-engineered masonry building stock with poor lateral load resisting systems in Iran succumbs even for moderate levels of ground shaking. Consequently, the heavy death toll for the 2003 Bam, Iran earthquake, which claimed 31,828 lives (Ghafory-Ashtiany and Mousavi, 2005), is directly attributable to such poorly resistant construction, and future events will produce comparable losses unless practices change. Similarly, multistory, precast-concrete framed buildings caused heavy casualties in the 1988 Spitak, Armenia earthquake (Bertero, 1989); weaker masonry and reinforced-concrete framed construction designed for gravity loads with soft first stories dominated losses in the Bhuj, India earthquake of 2001 (Madabhushi and Haigh, 2005); and adobe and weak masonry dwellings in Peru controlled the death toll in the Peru earthquake of 2007 (Taucer, J. and others, 2007). Spence (2007) after conducting a brief survey of most lethal earthquakes since 1960 found that building collapses remains a major cause of earthquake mortality and unreinforced masonry buildings are one of the mos
Zielke, Olaf; Arrowsmith, J Ramón; Grant Ludwig, Lisa; Akçiz, Sinan O
The moment magnitude (Mw) 7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake of 1857, with a approximately 350-kilometer-long surface rupture, was the most recent major earthquake along the south-central San Andreas Fault, California. Based on previous measurements of its surface slip distribution, rupture along the approximately 60-kilometer-long Carrizo segment was thought to control the recurrence of 1857-like earthquakes. New high-resolution topographic data show that the average slip along the Carrizo segment during the 1857 event was 5.3 +/- 1.4 meters, eliminating the core assumption for a linkage between Carrizo segment rupture and recurrence of major earthquakes along the south-central San Andreas Fault. Earthquake slip along the Carrizo segment may recur in earthquake clusters with cumulative slip of approximately 5 meters.
Kohler, M.D.; Davis, P.M.; Safak, E.
Dynamic property measurements of the moment-resisting steel-frame University of California, Los Angeles, Factor building are being made to assess how forces are distributed over the building. Fourier amplitude spectra have been calculated from several intervals of ambient vibrations, a 24-hour period of strong winds, and from the 28 March 2003 Encino, California (ML = 2.9), the 3 September 2002 Yorba Linda, California (ML = 4.7), and the 3 November 2002 Central Alaska (Mw = 7.9) earthquakes. Measurements made from the ambient vibration records show that the first-mode frequency of horizontal vibration is between 0.55 and 0.6 Hz. The second horizontal mode has a frequency between 1.6 and 1.9 Hz. In contrast, the first-mode frequencies measured from earthquake data are about 0.05 to 0.1 Hz lower than those corresponding to ambient vibration recordings indicating softening of the soil-structure system as amplitudes become larger. The frequencies revert to pre-earthquake levels within five minutes of the Yorba Linda earthquake. Shaking due to strong winds that occurred during the Encino earthquake dominates the frequency decrease, which correlates in time with the duration of the strong winds. The first shear wave recorded from the Encino and Yorba Linda earthquakes takes about 0.4 sec to travel up the 17-story building. ?? 2005, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.
National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2008
Earthquakes are low-probability, high-consequence events. Though they may occur only once in the life of a school, they can have devastating, irreversible consequences. Moderate earthquakes can cause serious damage to building contents and non-structural building systems, serious injury to students and staff, and disruption of building operations.…
Following their request for help from members of international organisations, the permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran has given the following bank account number, where you can donate money to help the victims of the Bam earthquake. Re: Bam earthquake 235 - UBS 311264.35L Bubenberg Platz 3001 BERN
Woerdman, Edwin; Dulleman, Minne
This article presents a market-based idea to compensate for earthquake damage caused by the extraction of natural gas and applies it to the case of Groningen in the Netherlands. Earthquake certificates give homeowners a right to yearly compensation for both property damage and degradation of living
Asmis, G.J.K.; Atchinson, R.J.
Nuclear power plants licensed in Canada have been designed to resist earthquakes: not all plants, however, have been explicitly designed to the same level of earthquake induced forces. Understanding the nature of strong ground motion near the source of the earthquake is still very tentative. This paper reviews historical and scientific accounts of the three strongest earthquakes - St. Lawrence (1925), Temiskaming (1935), Cornwall (1944) - that have occurred in Canada in 'modern' times, field studies of near-field strong ground motion records and their resultant damage or non-damage to industrial facilities, and numerical modelling of earthquake sources and resultant wave propagation to produce accelerograms consistent with the above historical record and field studies. It is concluded that for future construction of NPP's near-field strong motion must be explicitly considered in design
Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.; Erdik, M.
The city of Istanbul will likely experience substantial direct and indirect losses as a result of a future large (M=7+) earthquake with an annual probability of occurrence of about 2%. This paper dwells on the expected building losses in terms of probable maximum and average annualized losses and discusses the results from the perspective of the compulsory earthquake insurance scheme operational in the country. The TCIP system is essentially designed to operate in Turkey with sufficient penetration to enable the accumulation of funds in the pool. Today, with only 20% national penetration, and about approximately one-half of all policies in highly earthquake prone areas (one-third in Istanbul) the system exhibits signs of adverse selection, inadequate premium structure and insufficient funding. Our findings indicate that the national compulsory earthquake insurance pool in Turkey will face difficulties in covering incurring building losses in Istanbul in the occurrence of a large earthquake. The annualized earthquake losses in Istanbul are between 140-300 million. Even if we assume that the deductible is raised to 15%, the earthquake losses that need to be paid after a large earthquake in Istanbul will be at about 2.5 Billion, somewhat above the current capacity of the TCIP. Thus, a modification to the system for the insured in Istanbul (or Marmara region) is necessary. This may mean an increase in the premia and deductible rates, purchase of larger re-insurance covers and development of a claim processing system. Also, to avoid adverse selection, the penetration rates elsewhere in Turkey need to be increased substantially. A better model would be introduction of parametric insurance for Istanbul. By such a model the losses will not be indemnified, however will be directly calculated on the basis of indexed ground motion levels and damages. The immediate improvement of a parametric insurance model over the existing one will be the elimination of the claim processing
Ratliff, J. L.; Porter, K.
Though California has experienced many large earthquakes (San Francisco, 1906; Loma Prieta, 1989; Northridge, 1994), the San Francisco Bay Area has not had a damaging earthquake for 25 years. Earthquake risk and surging reliance on smartphones and the Internet to handle everyday tasks raise the question: is an increasingly technology-reliant Bay Area prepared for potential infrastructure impacts caused by a major earthquake? How will a major earthquake on the Hayward Fault affect lifelines (roads, power, water, communication, etc.)? The U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) program's Haywired disaster scenario, a hypothetical two-year earthquake sequence triggered by a M7.05 mainshock on the Hayward Fault, addresses these and other questions. We explore four geographic aspects of lifeline damage from earthquakes: (1) geographic lifeline concentrations, (2) areas where lifelines pass through high shaking or potential ground-failure zones, (3) areas with diminished lifeline service demand due to severe building damage, and (4) areas with increased lifeline service demand due to displaced residents and businesses. Potential mainshock lifeline vulnerability and spatial demand changes will be discerned by superimposing earthquake shaking, liquefaction probability, and landslide probability damage thresholds with lifeline concentrations and with large-capacity shelters. Intersecting high hazard levels and lifeline clusters represent potential lifeline susceptibility hotspots. We will also analyze possible temporal vulnerability and demand changes using an aftershock shaking threshold. The results of this analysis will inform regional lifeline resilience initiatives and response and recovery planning, as well as reveal potential redundancies and weaknesses for Bay Area lifelines. Identified spatial and temporal hotspots can provide stakeholders with a reference for possible systemic vulnerability resulting from an earthquake sequence.
Morita, Keiko; Takayama, Mineo
Powerful earthquakes stuck Kumamoto and Oita Prefectures in Kyushu, Japan. It began with the Magnitude 6.5 foreshock at 21:26 JST 14 April, followed by the Magnitude 7.3 mainshock at 1:25 JST 16 April, 2016. The sequence earthquakes also involved more than 1700 perceptible earthquakes as of 13 June. The entire sequence was named the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Thousands of buildings and many roads were damaged, and landslides occurred. The Japanese building standard law is revised in 1981. Structural damages were concentrated on buildings constructed prior to 1981. The area of Mashiki and Southern Aso were most badly affected, especially wooden houses extremely damaged. In Japan, Prof. Hideyuki Tada (title at the time) undertook research on laminated rubber bearings in 1978, and put it into practical use in 1981. The single family house at Yachiyodai, Chiba Prefecture is completed in 1983, it's the first seismically isolated building which is installed laminated rubber bearings in Japan. Afterward, this system is gradually adopted to mainly office buildings, like a research laboratory, a hospital, a computer center and other offices. In the 1994 Northridge earthquake, the 1995 Kobe earthquake and 2011 Tohoku earthquake, seismically isolated buildings improve these good performances, and recently number of the buildings have increased, mainly high risk area of earthquakes. Many people believed that Kumamoto was a low risk area. But there were 24 seismically isolated buildings in Kumamoto Prefecture at the time. The seismically isolated buildings indicated excellent performances during the earthquakes. They protected people, buildings and other important facilities from damages caused by the earthquake. The purpose of this paper is to discuss lessons learned from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake and behavior of seismically isolated buildings in the earthquake.
Hill, David P.; Bailey, Roy A.; Hendley, James W.; Stauffer, Peter H.; Marcaida, Mae
Scientists have monitored geologic unrest in the Long Valley, California, area since 1980. In that year, following a swarm of strong earthquakes, they discovered that the central part of the Long Valley Caldera had begun actively rising. Unrest in the area persists today. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) continues to provide the public and civil authorities with current information on the volcanic hazard at Long Valley and is prepared to give timely warnings of any impending eruption.
Two major earthquakes occurred in the last 2 months of the year. A magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck San Juan Province, Argentina, on November 23, causing fatalities and damage. The second major earthquake was a magnitude 7.0 in the Bonin Islands region, an unpopulated area. On December 19, Iran experienced a destructive earthquake, which killed over 500.
There was one great earthquake (8.0 and above) during this reporting period in the South Pacific in the Kermadec Islands. There were no major earthquakes (7.0-7.9) but earthquake-related deaths were reported in Greece and in El Salvador. There were no destrcutive earthquakes in the United States.
The significance of small earthquakes and their treatment in nuclear power plant seismic hazard assessment is an issue which has received increased attention over the past few years. In probabilistic studies, sensitivity studies showed that the choice of the lower bound magnitude used in hazard calculations can have a larger than expected effect on the calculated hazard. Of particular interest is the fact that some of the difference in seismic hazard calculations between the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) studies can be attributed to this choice. The LLNL study assumed a lower bound magnitude of 3.75 while the EPRI study assumed a lower bound magnitude of 5.0. The magnitudes used were assumed to be body wave magnitudes or their equivalents. In deterministic studies recent ground motion recordings of small to moderate earthquakes at or near nuclear power plants have shown that the high frequencies of design response spectra may be exceeded. These exceedances became important issues in the licensing of the Summer and Perry nuclear power plants. At various times in the past particular concerns have been raised with respect to the hazard and damage potential of small to moderate earthquakes occurring at very shallow depths. In this paper a closer look is taken at these issues. Emphasis is given to the impact of lower bound magnitude on probabilistic hazard calculations and the historical record of damage from small to moderate earthquakes. Limited recommendations are made as to how these issues should be viewed
Saragoni, G. Rodolfo
The recent commemoration of the centennial of the San Francisco and Valparaiso 1906 earthquakes has given the opportunity to reanalyze their damages from modern earthquake engineering perspective. These two earthquakes plus Messina Reggio Calabria 1908 had a strong impact in the birth and developing of earthquake engineering. The study of the seismic performance of some up today existing buildings, that survive centennial earthquakes, represent a challenge to better understand the limitations of our in use earthquake design methods. Only Valparaiso 1906 earthquake, of the three considered centennial earthquakes, has been repeated again as the Central Chile, 1985, Ms = 7.8 earthquake. In this paper a comparative study of the damage produced by 1906 and 1985 Valparaiso earthquakes is done in the neighborhood of Valparaiso harbor. In this study the only three centennial buildings of 3 stories that survived both earthquakes almost undamaged were identified. Since for 1985 earthquake accelerogram at El Almendral soil conditions as well as in rock were recoded, the vulnerability analysis of these building is done considering instrumental measurements of the demand. The study concludes that good performance of these buildings in the epicentral zone of large earthquakes can not be well explained by modern earthquake engineering methods. Therefore, it is recommended to use in the future of more suitable instrumental parameters, such as the destructiveness potential factor, to describe earthquake demand
Rode, Karyn D.; Stirling, Ian
Polar bears are the largest of the eight species of bears found worldwide and are covered in a pigment-free fur giving them the appearance of being white. They are the most carnivorous of bear species consuming a high-fat diet, primarily of ice-associated seals and other marine mammals. They range throughout the circumpolar Arctic to the southernmost extent of seasonal pack ice.
Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Calzia, James P.; Walter, Stephen R.; Wong, Florence L.; Saucedo, George J.
The map depicts both active and inactive faults and earthquakes magnitude 1.5 to 7.0 in the greater San Francisco Bay area. Twenty-two earthquakes magnitude 5.0 and greater are indicated on the map and listed chronologically in an accompanying table. The data are compiled from records from 1970-2003. The bathymetry was generated from a digital version of NOAA maps and hydrogeographic data for San Francisco Bay. Elevation data are from the USGS National Elevation Database. Landsat satellite image is from seven Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus scenes. Fault data are reproduced with permission from the California Geological Survey. The earthquake data are from the Northern California Earthquake Catalog.
Kolvankar, V. G.
During a study conducted to find the effect of Earth tides on the occurrence of earthquakes, for small areas [typically 1000km X1000km] of high-seismicity regions, it was noticed that the Sun's position in terms of universal time [GMT] shows links to the sum of EMD [longitude of earthquake location - longitude of Moon's foot print on earth] and SEM [Sun-Earth-Moon angle]. This paper provides the details of this relationship after studying earthquake data for over forty high-seismicity regions of the world. It was found that over 98% of the earthquakes for these different regions, examined for the period 1973-2008, show a direct relationship between the Sun's position [GMT] and [EMD+SEM]. As the time changes from 00-24 hours, the factor [EMD+SEM] changes through 360 degree, and plotting these two variables for earthquakes from different small regions reveals a simple 45 degree straight-line relationship between them. This relationship was tested for all earthquakes and earthquake sequences for magnitude 2.0 and above. This study conclusively proves how Sun and the Moon govern all earthquakes. Fig. 12 [A+B]. The left-hand figure provides a 24-hour plot for forty consecutive days including the main event (00:58:23 on 26.12.2004, Lat.+3.30, Long+95.980, Mb 9.0, EQ count 376). The right-hand figure provides an earthquake plot for (EMD+SEM) vs GMT timings for the same data. All the 376 events including the main event faithfully follow the straight-line curve.
Böhlke, John Karl; Kistler, R. W.
Gold-bearing quartz veins occur in and near major fault zones in deformed oceanic and island-arc rocks west of the main outcrop of the Sierra Nevada composite batholith. Veins typically occupy minor reverse faults that crosscut blueschist to amphibolite-grade metamorphic rocks whose metamorphic ages range from early Paleozoic to Jurassic. Vein micas and carbonate-quartz-mica assemblages that formed by hydrothermal metasomatism of ultramafic wall rocks in the Alleghany, Grass Valley, Washington, and Mother Lode districts yield concordant K-Ar and Rb-Sr ages. The dated veins are significantly younger than prograde metamorphism, penetrative deformation, and accretion of their host rocks to the continental margin. New and previously published mineralization ages from 13 localities in the Sierra foothills range from about 140 to 110 m.y. ago, with mean and median between 120 and 115 m.y. The age relations suggest that mineralizing fluids were set in motion by deep magmatic activity related to the resumption of east-dipping subduction along the western margin of North America following the Late Jurassic Nevadan collision event.CO 2 -bearing fluids responsible for metasomatism and much of the vein mica, carbonate, albite, and quartz deposition in several northern mines were isotopically heavy (delta 18 O [asymp] 8-14ppm; delta D between about -10 and -50ppm) and do not resemble seawater, magmatic, or meteoric waters. Metasomatic and vein-filling mica, dolomite, magnesite, and quartz in altered ultramafic rocks generally formed from fluids with similar Sr and O isotope ratios at a given locality. Consistent quartz-mica delta 18 O fractionations (delta 18 O (sub Q-M) = 4.5-4.9ppm) from various localities imply uniform equilibration temperatures, probably between 300 degrees and 350 degrees C. On a local (mine) scale, fluids responsible for both carbonate alteration of mafic and ultramafic wall rocks and albitic alteration of felsic and pelitic rocks had similar Sr isotope
Nielsen, Nick; Pedersen, Sandra Bleuenn; Sørensen, Jens Ager
In this paper, we introduce the EcoBears concept that aims to augment household appliances with functional and aesthetic features to promote their "use'' and "longevity of use'' to prevent their disposal. The EcoBears also aim to support the communication of environmental issues in the home setting....... We present our initial design and implementation of the EcoBears that consist of two bear modules (a mother and her cub). We also present our preliminary concept validations and lessons learned to be considered for future directions....
Hanau, H.; Parker, R. J.; Zaretsky, E. V.; Chen, S. M.; Bull, H. L.
A joint program was undertaken by the NASA Lewis Research Center and the Army Aviation Systems Command to restore by grinding those rolling-element bearings which are currently being discarded at aircraft engine and transmission overhaul. Three bearing types were selected from the UH-1 helicopter engine (T-53) and transmission for the pilot program. No bearing failures occurred related to the restoration by grinding process. The risk and cost of a bearing restoration by grinding programs was analyzed. A microeconomic impact analysis was performed.
Norris, S.; Rosentrater, L.; Eid, P.M. [WWF International Arctic Programme, Oslo (Norway)
Polar bears, the world's largest terrestrial carnivore, spend much of their lives on the arctic sea ice. This is where they hunt and move between feeding, denning, and resting areas. The world population, estimated at 22,000 bears, is made up of 20 relatively distinct populations varying in size from a few hundred to a few thousand animals. About 60 per cent of all polar bears are found in Canada. In general, the status of this species is stable, although there are pronounced differences between populations. Reductions in the extent and thickness of sea ice has lead the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group to describe climate change as one of the major threats facing polar bears today. Though the long-term effects of climate change will vary in different areas of the Arctic, impacts on the condition and reproductive success of polar bears and their prey are likely to be negative. Longer ice-free periods resulting from earlier break-up of sea ice in the spring and later formation in the fall is already impacting polar bears in the southern portions of their range. In Canada's Hudson Bay, for example, bears hunt on the ice through the winter and into early summer, after which the ice melts completely, forcing bears ashore to fast on stored fat until freeze-up in the fall. The time bears have on the ice to hunt and build up their body condition is cut short when the ice melts early. Studies from Hudson Bay show that for every week earlier that ice break-up occurs, bears will come ashore 10 kg lighter and in poorer condition. It is likely that populations of polar bears dividing their time between land and sea will be severely reduced and local extinctions may occur as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and sea ice melts. Expected changes in regional weather patterns will also impact polar bears. Rain in the late winter can cause maternity dens to collapse before females and cubs have departed, thus exposing occupants to the elements and to predators. Such
Johnson, C. W.; Burgmann, R.; Fu, Y.
Establishing what controls the timing of earthquakes is fundamental to understanding the nature of the earthquake cycle and critical to determining time-dependent earthquake hazard. Seasonal loading provides a natural laboratory to explore the crustal response to a quantifiable transient force. In California, the accumulation of winter snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, surface water in lakes and reservoirs, and groundwater in sedimentary basins follow the annual cycle of wet winters and dry summers. The surface loads resulting from the seasonal changes in water storage produce elastic deformation of the Earth's crust. We used 9 years of global positioning system (GPS) vertical deformation time series to constrain models of monthly hydrospheric loading and the resulting stress changes on fault planes of small earthquakes. Previous studies posit that temperature, atmospheric pressure, or hydrologic changes may strain the lithosphere and promote additional earthquakes above background levels. Depending on fault geometry, the addition or removal of water increases the Coulomb failure stress. The largest stress amplitudes are occurring on dipping reverse faults in the Coast Ranges and along the eastern Sierra Nevada range front. We analyze 9 years of M≥2.0 earthquakes with known focal mechanisms in northern and central California to resolve fault-normal and fault-shear stresses for the focal geometry. Our results reveal 10% more earthquakes occurring during slip-encouraging fault-shear stress conditions and suggest that earthquake populations are modulated at periods of natural loading cycles, which promote failure by stress changes on the order of 1-5 kPa. We infer that California seismicity rates are modestly modulated by natural hydrological loading cycles.
Trono, William Dean
Modern reinforced concrete bridges are designed to avoid collapse and to prevent loss of life during earthquakes. To meet these objectives, bridge columns are typically detailed to form ductile plastic hinges when large displacements occur. California seismic design criteria acknowledges that damage such as concrete cover spalling and reinforcing bar yielding may occur in columns during a design-level earthquake. The seismic resilience of bridge columns can be improved through the use of a da...
Gilroy, J.E.; Dostal, M.; Jones, R.P.
This paper describes the analytical and experimental work carried out in support of a sodium-lubricated hydrostatic bearing for the CDFR primary sodium pump. The principle objective of the work was to establish bearing characteristics under steady-state and transient running conditions. A knowledge of these characteristics is necessary for the determination of the dynamic performance of the pump under normal and transient operating conditions and also under earthquake loading conditions
Nonlinear analyses of soils, structures, and soil-structure systems offer the potential for more accurate characterization of geotechnical and structural response under strong earthquake shaking. The increasing use of advanced performance-based desig...
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 1988 Spitak Earthquake database is an extensive collection of geophysical and geological data, maps, charts, images and descriptive text pertaining to the...
Kohler, Monica D.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Given, Douglas; Guiwits, Stephen; Neuhauser, Doug; Hensen, Ivan; Hartog, Renate; Bodin, Paul; Kress, Victor; Thompson, Stephen; Felizardo, Claude; Brody, Jeff; Bhadha, Rayo; Schwarz, Stan
Earthquake early warning (EEW) is an application of seismological science that can give people, as well as mechanical and electrical systems, up to tens of seconds to take protective actions before peak earthquake shaking arrives at a location. Since 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey has been working in collaboration with several partners to develop EEW for the United States. The goal is to create and operate an EEW system, called ShakeAlert, for the highest risk areas of the United States, starting with the West Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington. In early 2016, the Production Prototype v.1.0 was established for California; then, in early 2017, v.1.2 was established for the West Coast, with earthquake notifications being distributed to a group of beta users in California, Oregon, and Washington. The new ShakeAlert Production Prototype was an outgrowth from an earlier demonstration EEW system that began sending test notifications to selected users in California in January 2012. ShakeAlert leverages the considerable physical, technical, and organizational earthquake monitoring infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System, a nationwide federation of cooperating seismic networks. When fully implemented, the ShakeAlert system may reduce damage and injury caused by large earthquakes, improve the nation’s resilience, and speed recovery.
In a joint analysis of the results of recording the electrical component of the natural electromagnetic field of the Earth and the catalog of earthquakes in Kamchatka in 2013, unipolar pulses of constant amplitude associated with earthquakes were identified, whose activity is closely correlated with the energy of the electromagnetic field. For the explanation, a hypothesis about the cooperative character of these impulses is proposed.
Full Text Available In a joint analysis of the results of recording the electrical component of the natural electromagnetic field of the Earth and the catalog of earthquakes in Kamchatka in 2013, unipolar pulses of constant amplitude associated with earthquakes were identified, whose activity is closely correlated with the energy of the electromagnetic field. For the explanation, a hypothesis about the cooperative character of these impulses is proposed.
Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.
Earthquake forecasts have been computed by a variety of countries and economies world-wide for over two decades. For the most part, forecasts have been computed for insurance, reinsurance and underwriters of catastrophe bonds. One example is the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities that has been responsible for the official California earthquake forecast since 1988. However, in a time of increasingly severe global financial constraints, we are now moving inexorably towards personal risk management, wherein mitigating risk is becoming the responsibility of individual members of the public. Under these circumstances, open access to a variety of web-based tools, utilities and information is a necessity. Here we describe a web-based system that has been operational since 2009 at www.openhazards.com and www.quakesim.org. Models for earthquake physics and forecasting require input data, along with model parameters. The models we consider are the Natural Time Weibull (NTW) model for regional earthquake forecasting, together with models for activation and quiescence. These models use small earthquakes ('seismicity-based models") to forecast the occurrence of large earthquakes, either through varying rates of small earthquake activity, or via an accumulation of this activity over time. These approaches use data-mining algorithms combined with the ANSS earthquake catalog. The basic idea is to compute large earthquake probabilities using the number of small earthquakes that have occurred in a region since the last large earthquake. Each of these approaches has computational challenges associated with computing forecast information in real time. Using 25 years of data from the ANSS California-Nevada catalog of earthquakes, we show that real-time forecasting is possible at a grid scale of 0.1o. We have analyzed the performance of these models using Reliability/Attributes and standard Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) tests. We show how the Reliability and
A panel was established to investigate the subject of real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) and suggest recommendations on the feasibility of using a real-time earthquake warning system to mitigate earthquake damage in regions of the United States. The findings of the investigation and the related recommendations are described in this report. A brief review of existing real-time seismic systems is presented with particular emphasis given to the current California seismic networks. Specific applications of a real-time monitoring system are discussed along with issues related to system deployment and technical feasibility. In addition, several non-technical considerations are addressed including cost-benefit analysis, public perceptions, safety, and liability.
As it is the 200th anniversary of Darwin's birth, 2009 has also been marked as 170 years since the publication of his book Journal of Researches. During the voyage Darwin landed at Valdivia and Concepcion, Chile, just before, during, and after a great earthquake, which demolished hundreds of buildings, killing and injuring many people. Land was waved, lifted, and cracked, volcanoes awoke and giant ocean waves attacked the coast. Darwin was the first geologist to observe and describe the effects of the great earthquake during and immediately after. These effects sometimes repeated during severe earthquakes; but great earthquakes, like Chile 1835, and giant earthquakes, like Chile 1960, are rare and remain completely unpredictable. This is one of the few areas of science, where experts remain largely in the dark. Darwin suggested that the effects were a result of ‘ …the rending of strata, at a point not very deep below the surface of the earth…' and ‘…when the crust yields to the tension, caused by its gradual elevation, there is a jar at the moment of rupture, and a greater movement...'. Darwin formulated big ideas about the earth evolution and its dynamics. These ideas set the tone for the tectonic plate theory to come. However, the plate tectonics does not completely explain why earthquakes occur within plates. Darwin emphasised that there are different kinds of earthquakes ‘...I confine the foregoing observations to the earthquakes on the coast of South America, or to similar ones, which seem generally to have been accompanied by elevation of the land. But, as we know that subsidence has gone on in other quarters of the world, fissures must there have been formed, and therefore earthquakes...' (we cite the Darwin's sentences following researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474). These thoughts agree with results of the last publications (see Nature 461, 870-872; 636-639 and 462, 42-43; 87-89). About 200 years ago Darwin gave oneself airs by the
Nuclear power plants (NPP) are designed for earthquake shaking with very long return periods. Seismic isolation is a viable strategy to protect NPPs from extreme earthquake shaking because it filters a significant fraction of earthquake input energy. This study addresses the seismic isolation of NPPs using sliding bearings, with a focus on the single concave Friction Pendulum(TM) (FP) bearing. Friction at the sliding surface of an FP bearing changes continuously during an earthquake as a function of sliding velocity, axial pressure and temperature at the sliding surface. The temperature at the sliding surface, in turn, is a function of the histories of coefficient of friction, sliding velocity and axial pressure, and the travel path of the slider. A simple model to describe the complex interdependence of the coefficient of friction, axial pressure, sliding velocity and temperature at the sliding surface is proposed, and then verified and validated. Seismic hazard for a seismically isolated nuclear power plant is defined in the United States using a uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) at mean annual frequencies of exceedance (MAFE) of 10-4 and 10 -5. A key design parameter is the clearance to the hard stop (CHS), which is influenced substantially by the definition of the seismic hazard. Four alternate representations of seismic hazard are studied, which incorporate different variabilities and uncertainties. Response-history analyses performed on single FP-bearing isolation systems using ground motions consistent with the four representations at the two shaking levels indicate that the CHS is influenced primarily by whether the observed difference between the two horizontal components of ground motions in a given set is accounted for. The UHRS at the MAFE of 10-4 is increased by a design factor (≥ 1) for conventional (fixed base) nuclear structure to achieve a target annual frequency of unacceptable performance. Risk oriented calculations are performed for
Buchhardt, F.; Matthees, W.; Magiera, G.
In the Federal Republic of Germany KTA rule 2201 being the basis for the design of nuclear power plants against seismic events is now under discussion for revisions. One of the main demands to modify KTA rule 2201 consists in cancelling the existing design philosophy, i.e. design against an operating basis earthquake (AEB) as well as against a safe shutdown earthquake (SEB). When using the present rule the 'lower' earthquake (AEB) can become design-predominant, since for AEB and SEB different types of load cases are to be superimposed with different safety factors. The scope of this study is to quantify by parametric analyses so-called 'elastic bearing capacity limit margins' for seismic events; hereby different seismic input criteria - conventional as well as recently proposed are taken into account to investigate the influence of eventual modifications in seismic design philosophy. This way a relation between AEB and SEB has to be defined so that SEB is just still predominant for the design while AEB still will yield to elastic behaviour. The study covers all German site conditions
Burkett, Erin R.; Given, Douglas D.; Jones, Lucile M.
Earthquake early warning systems use earthquake science and the technology of monitoring systems to alert devices and people when shaking waves generated by an earthquake are expected to arrive at their location. The seconds to minutes of advance warning can allow people and systems to take actions to protect life and property from destructive shaking. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with several partners, has been working to develop an early warning system for the United States. ShakeAlert, a system currently under development, is designed to cover the West Coast States of California, Oregon, and Washington.
Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Fouskitakis, G. N.
This paper is concerned with modelling and simulation of near-source earthquake ground motion. Recent studies have revealed that these motions show heavy non-stationary behaviour with very low frequencies dominating parts of the earthquake sequence. Modeling and simulation of this behaviour...... by an epicentral distance of 16 km and measured during the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake in California (U .S .A.). The results of the study indicate that while all three approaches can successfully predict near-source ground motions, the Neural Network based one gives somewhat poorer simulation results....
Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Fouskitakis, G. N.
This paper is concerned with modelling and simulation of near-source earthquake ground motion. Recent studies have revealed that these motions show heavy non-stationary behaviour with very low frequencies dominating parts of the earthquake sequence. Modelling and simulation of this behaviour...... by an epicentral distance of 16 km and measured during the 1979 Imperial valley earthquake in California (USA). The results of the study indicate that while all three approaches can succesfully predict near-source ground motions, the Neural Network based one gives somewhat poorer simulation results....
Wolcott, J.H.; Simons, D.J.; Lee, D.D.; Nelson, R.A.
An ionospheric perturbation that was produced by the Coalinga earthquake of May 2, 1983, was detected by a network of high-frequency radio links in northern California. The ionospheric refraction regions of all five HF propagation paths, at distances between 160 and 285 km (horizontal range) from the epicenter, were affected by a ground-motion-induced acoustic pulse that propagated to ionospheric heights. The acoustic pulse was produced by the earthquake-induced seismic waves rather than the vertical ground motion above the epicenter. These observations appear to be the first ionospheric disturbances to be reported this close to an earthquake epicenter
Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.
The term "nowcasting" refers to the estimation of the current uncertain state of a dynamical system, whereas "forecasting" is a calculation of probabilities of future state(s). Nowcasting is a term that originated in economics and finance, referring to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or market indicators such as GDP at the current time by indirect means. We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of a system of faults, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EA000185/full). Advantages of our nowcasting method over forecasting models include: 1) Nowcasting is simply data analysis and does not involve a model having parameters that must be fit to data; 2) We use only earthquake catalog data which generally has known errors and characteristics; and 3) We use area-based analysis rather than fault-based analysis, meaning that the methods work equally well on land and in subduction zones. To use the nowcast method to estimate how far the fault system has progressed through the "cycle" of large recurring earthquakes, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. We select a "small" region in which the nowcast is to be made, and compute the statistics of a much larger region around the small region. The statistics of the large region are then applied to the small region. For an application, we can define a small region around major global cities, for example a "small" circle of radius 150 km and a depth of 100 km, as well as a "large" earthquake magnitude, for example M6.0. The region of influence of such earthquakes is roughly 150 km radius x 100 km depth, which is the reason these values were selected. We can then compute and rank the seismic risk of the world's major cities in terms of their relative seismic risk
Fischer, David; José M., Mogollón; Michael, Strasser; Thomas, Pape; Gerhard, Bohrmann; Noemi, Fekete; Volkhard, Spiess; Sabine, Kasten
Seepage of methane-dominated hydrocarbons is heterogeneous in space and time, and trigger mechanisms of episodic seep events are not well constrained. It is generally found that free hydrocarbon gas entering the local gas hydrate stability field in marine sediments is sequestered in gas hydrates. In this manner, gas hydrates can act as a buffer for carbon transport from the sediment into the ocean. However, the efficiency of gas hydrate-bearing sediments for retaining hydrocarbons may be corrupted: Hypothesized mechanisms include critical gas/fluid pressures beneath gas hydrate-bearing sediments, implying that these are susceptible to mechanical failure and subsequent gas release. Although gas hydrates often occur in seismically active regions, e.g., subduction zones, the role of earthquakes as potential triggers of hydrocarbon transport through gas hydrate-bearing sediments has hardly been explored. Based on a recent publication (Fischer et al., 2013), we present geochemical and transport/reaction-modelling data suggesting a substantial increase in upward gas flux and hydrocarbon emission into the water column following a major earthquake that occurred near the study sites in 1945. Calculating the formation time of authigenic barite enrichments identified in two sediment cores obtained from an anticlinal structure called "Nascent Ridge", we find they formed 38-91 years before sampling, which corresponds well to the time elapsed since the earthquake (62 years). Furthermore, applying a numerical model, we show that the local sulfate/methane transition zone shifted upward by several meters due to the increased methane flux and simulated sulfate profiles very closely match measured ones in a comparable time frame of 50-70 years. We thus propose a causal relation between the earthquake and the amplified gas flux and present reflection seismic data supporting our hypothesis that co-seismic ground shaking induced mechanical fracturing of gas hydrate-bearing sediments
Shelly, David R.
Earthquake predictability depends, in part, on the degree to which sudden slip is preceded by slow aseismic slip. Recently, observations of deep tremor have enabled inferences of deep slow slip even when detection by other means is not possible, but these data are limited to certain areas and mostly the last decade. The region near Parkfield, California, provides a unique convergence of several years of high-quality tremor data bracketing a moderate earthquake, the 2004 magnitude 6.0 event. Here, I present detailed observations of tectonic tremor from mid-2001 through 2008 that indicate deep fault slip both before and after the Parkfield earthquake that cannot be detected with surface geodetic instruments. While there is no obvious short-term precursor, I find unidirectional tremor migration accompanied by elevated tremor rates in the 3 months prior to the earthquake, which suggests accelerated creep on the fault ∼16 km beneath the eventual earthquake hypocenter.
Shelly, David R
Earthquake recurrence histories may provide clues to the timing of future events, but long intervals between large events obscure full recurrence variability. In contrast, small earthquakes occur frequently, and recurrence intervals are quantifiable on a much shorter time scale. In this work, I examine an 8.5-year sequence of more than 900 recurring low-frequency earthquake bursts composing tremor beneath the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. These events exhibit tightly clustered recurrence intervals that, at times, oscillate between approximately 3 and approximately 6 days, but the patterns sometimes change abruptly. Although the environments of large and low-frequency earthquakes are different, these observations suggest that similar complexity might underlie sequences of large earthquakes.
Shelly, David R.
Earthquake recurrence histories may provide clues to the timing of future events, but long intervals between large events obscure full recurrence variability. In contrast, small earthquakes occur frequently, and recurrence intervals are quantifiable on a much shorter time scale. In this work, I examine an 8.5-year sequence of more than 900 recurring low-frequency earthquake bursts composing tremor beneath the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. These events exhibit tightly clustered recurrence intervals that, at times, oscillate between ~3 and ~6 days, but the patterns sometimes change abruptly. Although the environments of large and low-frequency earthquakes are different, these observations suggest that similar complexity might underlie sequences of large earthquakes.
Guidez, J.; Juignet, N.; Queval, M.
The primary sodium pump shaft lower section of a fast breeder reactor is guided by a hydrostatic sodium bearing. This recess type bearing is supplied via orifices restrictors. Sodium is sampled at hight pressure at the diffuser outlet and is then centrifuged towards the orifices restrictors. Bearing stiffness and damping data is essential for the study of rotor dynamic behavior. Two points in particular may then be studied: - calculation of rotor instability ranges and critical speeds, - dynamic behavior of the rotor in the event of an earthquake. As regards the bearing design, the problem is to obtain the pressure fields in the liquid film. The integration of these pressure fields will then give the stiffness coefficients. The damping coefficients can then be obtained by the same calculation after slight displacement. The Reynolds equation can be used to study the liquid film (under any conditions for the turbulent and inertia effects). Then the computer code DELPAL is explained that solves the modified Reynolds equation using a finite element method. The presentation of tests conducted in 1981 on the Super-Phenix 1 full scall bearing (diameter 850 mm) in water is made. In conclusion this paper describes a method for calculating the stiffness and damping matrices of a hydrostatic bearing using the DELPAL calculation code and shows the loop of behavior tests on a bearing with sinusoidal excitation. The results, obtained by calculation and by testing, are indispensable when calculating the dynamic behavior of the shaft line
Swan, S.W.; Horstman, N.G.
The data base on the performance of power and industrial facilities in small magnitude earthquakes (M = 4.0 - 5.5) is potentially very large. In California alone many earthquakes in this magnitude range occur every year, often near industrial areas. In 1986 for example, in northern California alone, there were 76 earthquakes between Richter magnitude 4.0 and 5.5. Experience has shown that the effects of small magnitude earthquakes are seldom significant to well-engineered facilities. (The term well-engineered is here defined to include most modern industrial installations, as well as power plants and substations.) Therefore detailed investigations of small magnitude earthquakes are normally not considered worthwhile. The purpose of this paper is to review the tendency toward seismic damage of equipment installations representative of nuclear power plant safety systems. Estimates are made of the thresholds of seismic damage to certain types of equipment in terms of conventional means of measuring the damage potential of an earthquake. The objective is to define thresholds of damage that can be correlated with Richter magnitude. In this manner an earthquake magnitude might be chosen below which damage to nuclear plant safety systems is not considered credible
Scharer, Katherine M.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Weldon, Ray J.; Fumal, Tom E.
It has been 153 yr since the last large earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault (California, United States), but the average interseismic interval is only ~100 yr. If the recurrence of large earthquakes is periodic, rather than random or clustered, the length of this period is notable and would generally increase the risk estimated in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Unfortunately, robust characterization of a distribution describing earthquake recurrence on a single fault is limited by the brevity of most earthquake records. Here we use statistical tests on a 3000 yr combined record of 29 ground-rupturing earthquakes from Wrightwood, California. We show that earthquake recurrence there is more regular than expected from a Poisson distribution and is not clustered, leading us to conclude that recurrence is quasi-periodic. The observation of unimodal time dependence is persistent across an observationally based sensitivity analysis that critically examines alternative interpretations of the geologic record. The results support formal forecast efforts that use renewal models to estimate probabilities of future earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault. Only four intervals (15%) from the record are longer than the present open interval, highlighting the current hazard posed by this fault.
This report describes the simplified models for predicting the response of high-damping natural rubber bearings (HDNRB) to earthquake ground motions and benchmark problems for assessing the accuracy of finite element analyses in designing base-isolators. (author)
Saghatelyan, E.; Petrosyan, L.; Aghbalyan, Yu.; Baburyan, M.; Araratyan, L.
For the first time on the basis of the Spitak earthquake of December 1988 (Armenia, December 1988) experience it is found out that the earthquake causes intensive and prolonged radon splashes which, rapidly dispersing in the open space of close-to-earth atmosphere, are contrastingly displayed in covered premises (dwellings, schools, kindergartens) even if they are at considerable distance from the earthquake epicenter, and this multiplies the radiation influence on the population. The interval of splashes includes the period from the first fore-shock to the last after-shock, i.e. several months. The area affected by radiation is larger vs. Armenia's territory. The scale of this impact on population is 12 times higher than the number of people injured in Spitak, Leninakan and other settlements (toll of injured - 25 000 people, radiation-induced diseases in people - over 300 000). The influence of radiation directly correlates with the earthquake force. Such a conclusion is underpinned by indoor radon monitoring data for Yerevan since 1987 (120 km from epicenter) 5450 measurements and multivariate analysis with identification of cause-and-effect linkages between geo dynamics of indoor radon under stable and conditions of Earth crust, behavior of radon in different geological mediums during earthquakes, levels of room radon concentrations and effective equivalent dose of radiation impact of radiation dose on health and statistical data on public health provided by the Ministry of Health. The following hitherto unexplained facts can be considered as consequences of prolonged radiation influence on human organism: long-lasting state of apathy and indifference typical of the population of Armenia during the period of more than a year after the earthquake, prevalence of malignant cancer forms in disaster zones, dominating lung cancer and so on. All urban territories of seismically active regions are exposed to the threat of natural earthquake-provoked radiation influence
Jordan, T. H.; Scec/Itr Collaboration
The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), in collaboration with the San Diego Supercomputer Center, the USC Information Sciences Institute,IRIS, and the USGS, has received a large five-year grant from the NSF's ITR Program and its Geosciences Directorate to build a new information infrastructure for earthquake science. In many respects, the SCEC/ITR Project presents a microcosm of the IT efforts now being organized across the geoscience community, including the EarthScope initiative. The purpose of this presentation is to discuss the experience gained by the project thus far and lay out the challenges that lie ahead; our hope is to encourage cross-discipline collaboration in future IT advancements. Project goals have been formulated in terms of four "computational pathways" related to seismic hazard analysis (SHA). For example, Pathway 1 involves the construction of an open-source, object-oriented, and web-enabled framework for SHA computations that can incorporate a variety of earthquake forecast models, intensity-measure relationships, and site-response models, while Pathway 2 aims to utilize the predictive power of wavefield simulation in modeling time-dependent ground motion for scenario earthquakes and constructing intensity-measure relationships. The overall goal is to create a SCEC "community modeling environment" or collaboratory that will comprise the curated (on-line, documented, maintained) resources needed by researchers to develop and use these four computational pathways. Current activities include (1) the development and verification of the computational modules, (2) the standardization of data structures and interfaces needed for syntactic interoperability, (3) the development of knowledge representation and management tools, (4) the construction SCEC computational and data grid testbeds, and (5) the creation of user interfaces for knowledge-acquisition, code execution, and visualization. I will emphasize the increasing role of standardized
Miller, M. Meghan
Accomplishments: (1) Continues GPS monitoring of surface change during and following the fortuitous occurrence of the M(sub w) = 7.3 Landers earthquake in our network, in order to characterize earthquake dynamics and accelerated activity of related faults as far as 100's of kilometers along strike. (2) Integrates the geodetic constraints into consistent kinematic descriptions of the deformation field that can in turn be used to characterize the processes that drive geodynamics, including seismic cycle dynamics. In 1991, we installed and occupied a high precision GPS geodetic network to measure transform-related deformation that is partitioned from the Pacific - North America plate boundary northeastward through the Mojave Desert, via the Eastern California shear zone to the Walker Lane. The onset of the M(sub w) = 7.3 June 28, 1992, Landers, California, earthquake sequence within this network poses unique opportunities for continued monitoring of regional surface deformation related to the culmination of a major seismic cycle, characterization of the dynamic behavior of continental lithosphere during the seismic sequence, and post-seismic transient deformation. During the last year, we have reprocessed all three previous epochs for which JPL fiducial free point positioning products available and are queued for the remaining needed products, completed two field campaigns monitoring approx. 20 sites (October 1995 and September 1996), begun modeling by development of a finite element mesh based on network station locations, and developed manuscripts dealing with both the Landers-related transient deformation at the latitude of Lone Pine and the velocity field of the whole experiment. We are currently deploying a 1997 observation campaign (June 1997). We use GPS geodetic studies to characterize deformation in the Mojave Desert region and related structural domains to the north, and geophysical modeling of lithospheric behavior. The modeling is constrained by our
Ultra-precision bearings can achieve extreme accuracy of rotation, making them ideal for use in numerous applications across a variety of fields, including hard disk drives, roundness measuring machines and optical scanners. Ultraprecision Bearings provides a detailed review of the different types of bearing and their properties, as well as an analysis of the factors that influence motion error, stiffness and damping. Following an introduction to basic principles of motion error, each chapter of the book is then devoted to the basic principles and properties of a specific type of bearin
Kagan, Yan Y.
We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness
Normally, an earthquake is considered as a phenomenon of wave energy radiation by rupture (fracture) of solid Earth. However, the physics of dynamic process around seismic sources, which may play a crucial role in the occurrence of earthquakes and generation of strong waves, has not been fully understood yet. Instead, much of former investigation in seismology evaluated earthquake characteristics in terms of kinematics that does not directly treat such dynamic aspects and usually excludes the influence of high-frequency wave components over 1 Hz. There are countless valuable research outcomes obtained through this kinematics-based approach, but "extraordinary" phenomena that are difficult to be explained by this conventional description have been found, for instance, on the occasion of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu, Japan, earthquake, and more detailed study on rupture and wave dynamics, namely, possible mechanical characteristics of (1) rupture development around seismic sources, (2) earthquake-induced structural failures and (3) wave interaction that connects rupture (1) and failures (2), would be indispensable.
Harris, R.A.; Barall, M.; Archuleta, R.; Dunham, E.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Ampuero, J.-P.; Bhat, H.; Cruz-Atienza, Victor M.; Dalguer, L.; Dawson, P.; Day, S.; Duan, B.; Ely, G.; Kaneko, Y.; Kase, Y.; Lapusta, N.; Liu, Yajing; Ma, S.; Oglesby, D.; Olsen, K.; Pitarka, A.; Song, S.; Templeton, E.
Numerical simulations of earthquake rupture dynamics are now common, yet it has been difficult to test the validity of these simulations because there have been few field observations and no analytic solutions with which to compare the results. This paper describes the Southern California Earthquake Center/U.S. Geological Survey (SCEC/USGS) Dynamic Earthquake Rupture Code Verification Exercise, where codes that simulate spontaneous rupture dynamics in three dimensions are evaluated and the results produced by these codes are compared using Web-based tools. This is the first time that a broad and rigorous examination of numerous spontaneous rupture codes has been performed—a significant advance in this science. The automated process developed to attain this achievement provides for a future where testing of codes is easily accomplished.Scientists who use computer simulations to understand earthquakes utilize a range of techniques. Most of these assume that earthquakes are caused by slip at depth on faults in the Earth, but hereafter the strategies vary. Among the methods used in earthquake mechanics studies are kinematic approaches and dynamic approaches.The kinematic approach uses a computer code that prescribes the spatial and temporal evolution of slip on the causative fault (or faults). These types of simulations are very helpful, especially since they can be used in seismic data inversions to relate the ground motions recorded in the field to slip on the fault(s) at depth. However, these kinematic solutions generally provide no insight into the physics driving the fault slip or information about why the involved fault(s) slipped that much (or that little). In other words, these kinematic solutions may lack information about the physical dynamics of earthquake rupture that will be most helpful in forecasting future events.To help address this issue, some researchers use computer codes to numerically simulate earthquakes and construct dynamic, spontaneous
Bowden, D. C.; Earle, P. S.; Guy, M.; Smoczyk, G.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public, text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The potential uses of Twitter for earthquake response include broadcasting earthquake alerts, rapidly detecting widely felt events, qualitatively assessing earthquake damage effects, communicating with the public, and participating in post-event collaboration. Several seismic networks and agencies are currently distributing Twitter earthquake alerts including the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (@LastQuake), Natural Resources Canada (@CANADAquakes), and the Indonesian meteorological agency (@infogempabmg); the USGS will soon distribute alerts via the @USGSted and @USGSbigquakes Twitter accounts. Beyond broadcasting alerts, the USGS is investigating how to use tweets that originate near the epicenter to detect and characterize shaking events. This is possible because people begin tweeting immediately after feeling an earthquake, and their short narratives and exclamations are available for analysis within 10's of seconds of the origin time. Using five months of tweets that contain the word "earthquake" and its equivalent in other languages, we generate a tweet-frequency time series. The time series clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a simple Short-Term-Average / Long-Term-Average algorithm similar to that commonly used to detect seismic phases. As with most auto-detection algorithms, the parameters can be tuned to catch more or less events at the cost of more or less false triggers. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector found 48 globally-distributed, confirmed seismic events with only 2 false triggers. A space-shuttle landing and "The Great California ShakeOut" caused the false triggers. This number of
Buydos, John F., Comp.
An earthquake is a shaking of the ground resulting from a disturbance in the earth's interior. Seismology is the (1) study of earthquakes; (2) origin, propagation, and energy of seismic phenomena; (3) prediction of these phenomena; and (4) investigation of the structure of the earth. Earthquake engineering or engineering seismology includes the…
Savage, M.; Pinkston, B. H. W.
A theory of kinematic stabilization of rolling cylinders is extended and applied to the design of cylindrical roller bearings. The kinematic stabilization mechanism puts a reverse skew into the rolling elements by changing the roller taper. Twelve basic bearing modification designs are identified amd modeled. Four have single transverse convex curvature in their rollers while eight have rollers which have compound transverse curvature made up of a central cylindrical band surrounded by symmetric bands with slope and transverse curvature. The bearing designs are modeled for restoring torque per unit axial displacement, contact stress capacity, and contact area including dynamic loading, misalignment sensitivity and roller proportion. Design programs are available which size the single transverse curvature roller designs for a series of roller slopes and load separations and which design the compound roller bearings for a series of slopes and transverse radii of curvature. The compound rollers are proportioned to have equal contact stresses and minimum size. Design examples are also given.
Department of Homeland Security — Subset of BEAR (Bi-Weekly Examination Analysis and Reporting) data used for financial audit remediation reporting within the Coast Guard Business Intelligence (CGBI)...
There were four major earthquakes (7.0-7.9) during this reporting period: two struck in Mexico, one in El Salvador, and one in teh Kuril Islands. Mexico, El Salvador, and China experienced fatalities from earthquakes.
California Natural Resource Agency — This is a series of district layers pertaining to California'spolitical districts, that are derived from the California State Senateand State Assembly information....
Harris, Tedric A
One of the most well-known experts in the field brings cutting-edge research to practitioners in the new edition of this important reference. Covers the improved mathematical calculations for rolling bearing endurance developed by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers and the Society of Lubrication and Tribology Engineers. Updated with new material on Condition-Based Maintenance, new testing methods, and new bearing materials.
Mavroidis, Constantinos (Inventor); Vranish, John M. (Inventor); Weinberg, Brian (Inventor)
A gear bearing drive provides a compact mechanism that operates as an actuator providing torque and as a joint providing support. The drive includes a gear arrangement integrating an external rotor DC motor within a sun gear. Locking surfaces maintain the components of the drive in alignment and provide support for axial loads and moments. The gear bearing drive has a variety of applications, including as a joint in robotic arms and prosthetic limbs.
Nadeau, R M; Foxall, W; McEvilly, T V
The San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California, apparently late in an interval between repeating magnitude 6 earthquakes, is yielding to tectonic loading partly by seismic slip concentrated in a relatively sparse distribution of small clusters (<20-meter radius) of microearthquakes. Within these clusters, which account for 63% of the earthquakes in a 1987-92 study interval, virtually identical small earthquakes occurred with a regularity that can be described by the statistical model used previously in forecasting large characteristic earthquakes. Sympathetic occurrence of microearthquakes in nearby clusters was observed within a range of about 200 meters at communication speeds of 10 to 100 centimeters per second. The rate of earthquake occurrence, particularly at depth, increased significantly during the study period, but the fraction of earthquakes that were cluster members decreased.
Kalsi, Manmohan S.; Somogyi, Dezso; Dietle, Lannie L.
A load responsive hydrodynamic bearing is provided in the form of a thrust bearing or journal bearing for supporting, guiding and lubricating a relatively rotatable member to minimize wear thereof responsive to relative rotation under severe load. In the space between spaced relatively rotatable members and in the presence of a liquid or grease lubricant, one or more continuous ring shaped integral generally circular bearing bodies each define at least one dynamic surface and a plurality of support regions. Each of the support regions defines a static surface which is oriented in generally opposed relation with the dynamic surface for contact with one of the relatively rotatable members. A plurality of flexing regions are defined by the generally circular body of the bearing and are integral with and located between adjacent support regions. Each of the flexing regions has a first beam-like element being connected by an integral flexible hinge with one of the support regions and a second beam-like element having an integral flexible hinge connection with an adjacent support region. A least one local weakening geometry of the flexing region is located intermediate the first and second beam-like elements. In response to application of load from one of the relatively rotatable elements to the bearing, the beam-like elements and the local weakening geometry become flexed, causing the dynamic surface to deform and establish a hydrodynamic geometry for wedging lubricant into the dynamic interface.
Full Text Available A workshop on Operational earthquake forecasting and decision making was convened in Varenna, Italy, on June 8-11, 2014, under the sponsorship of the EU FP 7 REAKT (Strategies and tools for Real-time EArthquake risK reducTion project, the Seismic Hazard Center at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV, and the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC. The main goal was to survey the interdisciplinary issues of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF, including the problems that OEF raises for decision making and risk communication. The workshop was attended by 64 researchers from universities, research centers, and governmental institutions in 11 countries. Participants and the workshop agenda are listed in the appendix.The workshop comprised six topical sessions structured around three main themes: the science of operational earthquake forecasting, decision making in a low-probability environment, and communicating hazard and risk. Each topic was introduced by a moderator and surveyed by a few invited speakers, who were then empaneled for an open discussion. The presentations were followed by poster sessions. During a wrap-up session on the last day, the reporters for each topical session summarized the main points that they had gleaned from the talks and open discussions. This report attempts to distill this workshop record into a brief overview of the workshop themes and to describe the range of opinions expressed during the discussions.
Van Der Elst, Nicholas
Aftershocks often occur within cascades of triggered seismicity in which each generation of aftershocks triggers an additional generation, and so on. The rate of earthquakes in any particular generation follows Omori's law, going approximately as 1/t. This function decays rapidly, but is heavy-tailed, and aftershock sequences may persist for long times at a rate that is difficult to discriminate from background. It is likely that some apparently spontaneous earthquakes in the observational catalogue are orphaned aftershocks of long-past main shocks. To assess the relative proportion of orphaned aftershocks in the apparent background rate, I develop an extension of the ETAS model that explicitly includes the expected contribution of orphaned aftershocks to the apparent background rate. Applying this model to California, I find that the apparent background rate can be almost entirely attributed to orphaned aftershocks, depending on the assumed duration of an aftershock sequence. This implies an earthquake cascade with a branching ratio (the average number of directly triggered aftershocks per main shock) of nearly unity. In physical terms, this implies that very few earthquakes are completely isolated from the perturbing effects of other earthquakes within the fault system. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the ETAS model gives more accurate estimates of the true background rate, and more realistic expectations for long-term seismicity patterns.
Bichisao, Marta; Stallone, Angela
Making science visual plays a crucial role in the process of building knowledge. In this view, art can considerably facilitate the representation of the scientific content, by offering a different perspective on how a specific problem could be approached. Here we explore the possibility of presenting the earthquake process through visual dance. From a choreographer's point of view, the focus is always on the dynamic relationships between moving objects. The observed spatial patterns (coincidences, repetitions, double and rhythmic configurations) suggest how objects organize themselves in the environment and what are the principles underlying that organization. The identified set of rules is then implemented as a basis for the creation of a complex rhythmic and visual dance system. Recently, scientists have turned seismic waves into sound and animations, introducing the possibility of "feeling" the earthquakes. We try to implement these results into a choreographic model with the aim to convert earthquake sound to a visual dance system, which could return a transmedia representation of the earthquake process. In particular, we focus on a possible method to translate and transfer the metric language of seismic sound and animations into body language. The objective is to involve the audience into a multisensory exploration of the earthquake phenomenon, through the stimulation of the hearing, eyesight and perception of the movements (neuromotor system). In essence, the main goal of this work is to develop a method for a simultaneous visual and auditory representation of a seismic event by means of a structured choreographic model. This artistic representation could provide an original entryway into the physics of earthquakes.
Simsek, Canan Lacin
Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…
One major earthquake occurred during this reporting period. This was a magntidue 7.1 in Indonesia (Minahassa Peninsula) on June 20. Earthquake-related deaths were reported in the Western Caucasus (Georgia, USSR) on May 3 and June 15. One earthquake-related death was also reported El Salvador on June 21.
Gordon, David W.
Primary responsibility for the preparation of Earthquakes & Volcanoes within the Geological Survey has shifted from the Office of Scientific Publications to the Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Engineering (OEVE). As a consequence of this reorganization, Henry Spall has stepepd down as Science Editor for Earthquakes & Volcanoes(E&V).
The Tangshan earthquake of 1976 was one of the largest earthquakes in recent years. It occurred on July 28 at 3:42 a.m, Beijing (Peking) local time, and had magnitude 7.8, focal depth of 15 kilometers, and an epicentral intensity of XI on the New Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale; it caused serious damage and loss of life in this densely populated industrial city. Now, with the help of people from all over China, the city of Tangshan is being rebuild.
de Ville de Goyet, C
The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has 25 years of experience dealing with major natural disasters. This piece provides a preliminary review of the events taking place in the weeks following the major earthquakes in El Salvador on 13 January and 13 February 2001. It also describes the lessons that have been learned over the last 25 years and the impact that the El Salvador earthquakes and other disasters have had on the health of the affected populations. Topics covered include mass-casualties management, communicable diseases, water supply, managing donations and international assistance, damages to the health-facilities infrastructure, mental health, and PAHO's role in disasters.
Kumar, Manish; Whittaker, Andrew S.; Constantinou, Michael C.
Highlights: • Response-history analysis of nuclear structures base-isolated using lead–rubber bearings is performed. • Advanced numerical model of lead–rubber bearing is used to capture behavior under extreme earthquake shaking. • Results of response-history analysis obtained using simplified and advanced model of lead–rubber bearings are compared. • Heating of the lead core and variation in buckling load and axial stiffness affect the response. - Abstract: Seismic isolation using low damping rubber and lead–rubber bearings is a viable strategy for mitigating the effects of extreme earthquake shaking on safety-related nuclear structures. The mechanical properties of these bearings are not expected to change substantially in design basis shaking. However, under shaking more intense than design basis, the properties of the lead cores in lead–rubber bearings may degrade due to heating associated with energy dissipation, some bearings in an isolation system may experience net tension, and the compression and tension stiffness may be affected by the lateral displacement of the isolation system. The effects of intra-earthquake changes in mechanical properties on the response of base-isolated nuclear power plants (NPPs) are investigated using an advanced numerical model of a lead–rubber bearing that has been verified and validated, and implemented in OpenSees. A macro-model is used for response-history analysis of base-isolated NPPs. Ground motions are selected and scaled to be consistent with response spectra for design basis and beyond design basis earthquake shaking at the site of the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Generating Station. Ten isolation systems of two periods and five characteristic strengths are analyzed. The responses obtained using simplified and advanced isolator models are compared. Strength degradation due to heating of lead cores and changes in buckling load most significantly affect the response of the base-isolated NPP.
Kumar, Manish, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org; Whittaker, Andrew S.; Constantinou, Michael C.
Highlights: • Response-history analysis of nuclear structures base-isolated using lead–rubber bearings is performed. • Advanced numerical model of lead–rubber bearing is used to capture behavior under extreme earthquake shaking. • Results of response-history analysis obtained using simplified and advanced model of lead–rubber bearings are compared. • Heating of the lead core and variation in buckling load and axial stiffness affect the response. - Abstract: Seismic isolation using low damping rubber and lead–rubber bearings is a viable strategy for mitigating the effects of extreme earthquake shaking on safety-related nuclear structures. The mechanical properties of these bearings are not expected to change substantially in design basis shaking. However, under shaking more intense than design basis, the properties of the lead cores in lead–rubber bearings may degrade due to heating associated with energy dissipation, some bearings in an isolation system may experience net tension, and the compression and tension stiffness may be affected by the lateral displacement of the isolation system. The effects of intra-earthquake changes in mechanical properties on the response of base-isolated nuclear power plants (NPPs) are investigated using an advanced numerical model of a lead–rubber bearing that has been verified and validated, and implemented in OpenSees. A macro-model is used for response-history analysis of base-isolated NPPs. Ground motions are selected and scaled to be consistent with response spectra for design basis and beyond design basis earthquake shaking at the site of the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Generating Station. Ten isolation systems of two periods and five characteristic strengths are analyzed. The responses obtained using simplified and advanced isolator models are compared. Strength degradation due to heating of lead cores and changes in buckling load most significantly affect the response of the base-isolated NPP.
Whittier, J. C.; Nittel, S.; Subasinghe, I.
With live streaming sensors and sensor networks, increasingly large numbers of individual sensors are deployed in physical space. Sensor data streams are a fundamentally novel mechanism to deliver observations to information systems. They enable us to represent spatio-temporal continuous phenomena such as radiation accidents, toxic plumes, or earthquakes almost as instantaneously as they happen in the real world. Sensor data streams discretely sample an earthquake, while the earthquake is continuous over space and time. Programmers attempting to integrate many streams to analyze earthquake activity and scope need to write code to integrate potentially very large sets of asynchronously sampled, concurrent streams in tedious application code. In previous work, we proposed the field stream data model (Liang et al., 2016) for data stream engines. Abstracting the stream of an individual sensor as a temporal field, the field represents the Earth's movement at the sensor position as continuous. This simplifies analysis across many sensors significantly. In this paper, we undertake a feasibility study of using the field stream model and the open source Data Stream Engine (DSE) Apache Spark(Apache Spark, 2017) to implement a real-time earthquake event detection with a subset of the 250 GPS sensor data streams of the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN). The field-based real-time stream queries compute maximum displacement values over the latest query window of each stream, and related spatially neighboring streams to identify earthquake events and their extent. Further, we correlated the detected events with an USGS earthquake event feed. The query results are visualized in real-time.
Full Text Available This paper describes a new method for calculating strong motion records for a given seismic region on the basis of the laws of physics using information on the tectonics and physical properties of the earthquake fault. Our method is based on a earthquake model, called a «barrier model», which is characterized by five source parameters: fault length, width, maximum slip, rupture velocity, and barrier interval. The first three parameters may be constrained from plate tectonics, and the fourth parameter is roughly a constant. The most important parameter controlling the earthquake strong motion is the last parameter, «barrier interval». There are three methods to estimate the barrier interval for a given seismic region: 1 surface measurement of slip across fault breaks, 2 model fitting with observed near and far-field seismograms, and 3 scaling law data for small earthquakes in the region. The barrier intervals were estimated for a dozen earthquakes and four seismic regions by the above three methods. Our preliminary results for California suggest that the barrier interval may be determined if the maximum slip is given. The relation between the barrier interval and maximum slip varies from one seismic region to another. For example, the interval appears to be unusually long for Kilauea, Hawaii, which may explain why only scattered evidence of strong ground shaking was observed in the epicentral area of the Island of Hawaii earthquake of November 29, 1975. The stress drop associated with an individual fault segment estimated from the barrier interval and maximum slip lies between 100 and 1000 bars. These values are about one order of magnitude greater than those estimated earlier by the use of crack models without barriers. Thus, the barrier model can resolve, at least partially, the well known discrepancy between the stress-drops measured in the laboratory and those estimated for earthquakes.
Bazzurro, P.; Telleen, K.; Maffei, J.; Yin, J.; Cornell, C.A.
Critical structures such as hospitals, police stations, local administrative office buildings, and critical lifeline facilities, are expected to be operational immediately after earthquakes. Any rational decision about whether these structures are strong enough to meet this goal or whether pre-empitive retrofitting is needed cannot be made without an explicit consideration of post-earthquake safety and functionality with respect to aftershocks. Advanced Seismic Assessment Guidelines offer improvement over previous methods for seismic evaluation of buildings where post-earthquake safety and usability is a concern. This new method allows engineers to evaluate the like hood that a structure may have restricted access or no access after an earthquake. The building performance is measured in terms of the post-earthquake occupancy classifications Green Tag, Yellow Tag, and Red Tag, defining these performance levels quantitatively, based on the structure's remaining capacity to withstand aftershocks. These color-coded placards that constitute an established practice in US could be replaced by the standard results of inspections (A to E) performed by the Italian Dept. of Civil Protection after an event. The article also shows some applications of these Guidelines to buildings of the largest utility company in California, Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGE). [it
This book chapter brings to attention the dramatic impact of large earthquake disasters on local communities and society and highlights the necessity of building and enhancing the earthquake culture. Iran was considered as a research case study and fifteen large earthquake disasters in Iran were investigated and analyzed over more than a century-time period. It was found that the earthquake culture in Iran was and is still conditioned by many factors or parameters which are not integrated and...
Lu, Kunquan; Cao, Zexian; Hou, Meiying; Jiang, Zehui; Shen, Rong; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Gang; Liu, Jixing
The physical mechanism of earthquake remains a challenging issue to be clarified. Seismologists used to attribute shallow earthquake to the elastic rebound of crustal rocks. The seismic energy calculated following the elastic rebound theory and with the data of experimental results upon rocks, however, shows a large discrepancy with measurement — a fact that has been dubbed as “the heat flow paradox”. For the intermediate-focus and deep-focus earthquakes, both occurring in the region of the mantle, there is not reasonable explanation either. This paper will discuss the physical mechanism of earthquake from a new perspective, starting from the fact that both the crust and the mantle are discrete collective system of matters with slow dynamics, as well as from the basic principles of physics, especially some new concepts of condensed matter physics emerged in the recent years. (1) Stress distribution in earth’s crust: Without taking the tectonic force into account, according to the rheological principle of “everything flows”, the normal stress and transverse stress must be balanced due to the effect of gravitational pressure over a long period of time, thus no differential stress in the original crustal rocks is to be expected. The tectonic force is successively transferred and accumulated via stick-slip motions of rock blocks to squeeze the fault gouge and then exerted upon other rock blocks. The superposition of such additional lateral tectonic force and the original stress gives rise to the real-time stress in crustal rocks. The mechanical characteristics of fault gouge are different from rocks as it consists of granular matters. The elastic moduli of the fault gouges are much less than those of rocks, and they become larger with increasing pressure. This peculiarity of the fault gouge leads to a tectonic force increasing with depth in a nonlinear fashion. The distribution and variation of the tectonic stress in the crust are specified. (2) The
In their provocative analysis of northern bears (“Nuclear genomic sequences reveal that polar bears are an old and distinct bear lineage,” Reports, 20 April, p. 344), F. Hailer et al. use independent nuclear loci to show that polar bears originated during the middle Pleistocene, rather than during t...
Lynn L. Rogers
Black bears are the bears people most often encounter. Black bears live in forests over much of North America, unlike grizzlies that live only in Alaska, northern and western Canada, and the northern Rocky Mountains. This brochure presents the latest information on black bear life and how this species responds to an ever-increasing number of campers, hikers, and...
Allen, R. M.; Given, D. D.; Heaton, T. H.; Vidale, J. E.; West Coast Earthquake Early Warning Development Team
The development of earthquake early warning capabilities in the United States is now accelerating and expanding as the technical capability to provide warning is demonstrated and additional funding resources are making it possible to expand the current testing region to the entire west coast (California, Oregon and Washington). Over the course of the next two years we plan to build a prototype system that will provide a blueprint for a full public system in the US. California currently has a demonstrations warning system, ShakeAlert, that provides alerts to a group of test users from the public and private sector. These include biotech companies, technology companies, the entertainment industry, the transportation sector, and the emergency planning and response community. Most groups are currently in an evaluation mode, receiving the alerts and developing protocols for future response. The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system is the one group who has now implemented an automated response to the warning system. BART now stops trains when an earthquake of sufficient size is detected. Research and development also continues to develop improved early warning algorithms to better predict the distribution of shaking in large earthquakes when the finiteness of the source becomes important. The algorithms under development include the use of both seismic and GPS instrumentation and integration with existing point source algorithms. At the same time, initial testing and development of algorithms in and for the Pacific Northwest is underway. In this presentation we will review the current status of the systems, highlight the new research developments, and lay out a pathway to a full public system for the US west coast. The research and development described is ongoing at Caltech, UC Berkeley, University of Washington, ETH Zurich, Southern California Earthquake Center, and the US Geological Survey, and is funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and the US Geological
Seismic isolation using low damping rubber (LDR) and lead-rubber (LR) bearings is a viable strategy for mitigating the effects of extreme earthquake shaking on safety-related nuclear structures. Although seismic isolation has been deployed in nuclear structures in France and South Africa, it has not seen widespread use because of limited new build nuclear construction in the past 30 years and a lack of guidelines, codes and standards for the analysis, design and construction of isolation systems specific to nuclear structures. The nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in March 2011 has led the nuclear community to consider seismic isolation for new large light water and small modular reactors to withstand the effects of extreme earthquakes. The mechanical properties of LDR and LR bearings are not expected to change substantially in design basis shaking. However, under shaking more intense than design basis, the properties of the lead cores in lead-rubber bearings may degrade due to heating associated with energy dissipation, some bearings in an isolation system may experience net tension, and the compression and tension stiffness may be affected by the horizontal displacement of the isolation system. The effects of intra-earthquake changes in mechanical properties on the response of base-isolated nuclear power plants (NPPs) were investigated using an advanced numerical model of a lead-rubber bearing that has been verified and validated, and implemented in OpenSees and ABAQUS. A series of experiments were conducted at University at Buffalo to characterize the behavior of elastomeric bearings in tension. The test data was used to validate a phenomenological model of an elastomeric bearing in tension. The value of three times the shear modulus of rubber in elastomeric bearing was found to be a reasonable estimate of the cavitation stress of a bearing. The sequence of loading did not change the behavior of an elastomeric bearing under cyclic tension, and there was no
Konakli, Katerina; Kiureghian, Armen Der; Dreger, Douglas
Spatial variability of near-fault strong motions recorded by the US Geological Survey Parkfield Seismograph Array (UPSAR) during the 2004 Parkfield (California) earthquake is investigated. Behavior of the lagged coherency for two horizontal and the vertical components is analyzed by separately...
Fisher, John; Jin, Zhongmin; Tipper, Joanne; Stone, Martin; Ingham, Eileen
The tribological performance and biological activity of the wear debris produced has been compared for highly cross-linked polyethylene, ceramic-on-ceramic, metal-on-metal, and modified metal bearings in a series of in vitro studies from a single laboratory. The functional lifetime demand of young and active patients is 10-fold greater than the estimated functional lifetime of traditional polyethylene. There is considerable interest in using larger diameter heads in these high demand patients. Highly cross-linked polyethylene show a four-fold reduction in functional biological activity. Ceramic-on-ceramic bearings have the lowest wear rates and least reactive wear debris. The functional biological activity is 20-fold lower than with highly cross-linked polyethylene. Hence, ceramic-on-ceramic bearings address the tribological lifetime demand of highly active patients. Metal-on-metal bearings have substantially lower wear rates than highly cross-linked polyethylene and wear decreases with head diameter. Bedding in wear is also lower with reduced radial clearance. Differential hardness ceramic-on-metal bearings and the application of ceramic-like coatings reduce metal wear and ion levels.
Jones, K. B., II; Saxton, P. T.
Many attempts have been made to determine a sound forecasting method regarding earthquakes and warn the public in turn. Presently, the animal kingdom leads the precursor list alluding to a transmission related source. By applying the animal-based model to an electromagnetic (EM) wave model, various hypotheses were formed, but the most interesting one required the use of a magnetometer with a differing design and geometry. To date, numerous, high-end magnetometers have been in use in close proximity to fault zones for potential earthquake forecasting; however, something is still amiss. The problem still resides with what exactly is forecastable and the investigating direction of EM. After the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake, American earthquake investigators predetermined magnetometer use and a minimum earthquake magnitude necessary for EM detection. This action was set in motion, due to the extensive damage incurred and public outrage concerning earthquake forecasting; however, the magnetometers employed, grounded or buried, are completely subject to static and electric fields and have yet to correlate to an identifiable precursor. Secondly, there is neither a networked array for finding any epicentral locations, nor have there been any attempts to find even one. This methodology needs dismissal, because it is overly complicated, subject to continuous change, and provides no response time. As for the minimum magnitude threshold, which was set at M5, this is simply higher than what modern technological advances have gained. Detection can now be achieved at approximately M1, which greatly improves forecasting chances. A propagating precursor has now been detected in both the field and laboratory. Field antenna testing conducted outside the NE Texas town of Timpson in February, 2013, detected three strong EM sources along with numerous weaker signals. The antenna had mobility, and observations were noted for recurrence, duration, and frequency response. Next, two
Vanmarcke, E.H.; Gasparini, D.A.
The paper reviews current methods for generating synthetic earthquake ground motions. Emphasis is on the special requirements demanded of procedures to generate motions for use in nuclear power plant seismic response analysis. Specifically, very close agreement is usually sought between the response spectra of the simulated motions and prescribed, smooth design response spectra. The features and capabilities of the computer program SIMQKE, which has been widely used in power plant seismic work are described. Problems and pitfalls associated with the use of synthetic ground motions in seismic safety assessment are also pointed out. The limitations and paucity of recorded accelerograms together with the widespread use of time-history dynamic analysis for obtaining structural and secondary systems' response have motivated the development of earthquake simulation capabilities. A common model for synthesizing earthquakes is that of superposing sinusoidal components with random phase angles. The input parameters for such a model are, then, the amplitudes and phase angles of the contributing sinusoids as well as the characteristics of the variation of motion intensity with time, especially the duration of the motion. The amplitudes are determined from estimates of the Fourier spectrum or the spectral density function of the ground motion. These amplitudes may be assumed to be varying in time or constant for the duration of the earthquake. In the nuclear industry, the common procedure is to specify a set of smooth response spectra for use in aseismic design. This development and the need for time histories have generated much practical interest in synthesizing earthquakes whose response spectra 'match', or are compatible with a set of specified smooth response spectra
Vranish, John M. (Inventor)
A partial gear bearing including an upper half, comprising peak partial teeth, and a lower, or bottom, half, comprising valley partial teeth. The upper half also has an integrated roller section between each of the peak partial teeth with a radius equal to the gear pitch radius of the radially outwardly extending peak partial teeth. Conversely, the lower half has an integrated roller section between each of the valley half teeth with a radius also equal to the gear pitch radius of the peak partial teeth. The valley partial teeth extend radially inwardly from its roller section. The peak and valley partial teeth are exactly out of phase with each other, as are the roller sections of the upper and lower halves. Essentially, the end roller bearing of the typical gear bearing has been integrated into the normal gear tooth pattern.
Kagan, Y Y; Knopoff, L
A statistical procedure, derived from a theoretical model of fracture growth, is used to identify a foreshock sequence while it is in progress. As a predictor, the procedure reduces the average uncertainty in the rate of occurrence for a future strong earthquake by a factor of more than 1000 when compared with the Poisson rate of occurrence. About one-third of all main shocks with local magnitude greater than or equal to 4.0 in central California can be predicted in this way, starting from a 7-year database that has a lower magnitude cut off of 1.5. The time scale of such predictions is of the order of a few hours to a few days for foreshocks in the magnitude range from 2.0 to 5.0.
The editor and associate editors of the Journal of Geophysical Research—Solid Earth and Planets invite the submission of manuscripts for a special issue on the topic “Deep- and Intermediate-Focus Earthquakes, Phase Transitions, and the Mechanics of Deep Subduction.”Manuscripts should be submitted to JGR Editor Gerald Schubert (Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90024) before July 1, 1986, in accordance with the usual rules for manuscript submission. Submitted papers will undergo the normal JGR review procedure. For more information, contact either Schubert or the special guest associate editor, Cliff Frohlich (Institute for Geophysics, University of Texas at Austin, 4920 North IH-35, Austin, TX 78751; telephone: 512-451-6223).
Nguyen, N. V.; Nguyen, C. H.; Hoang, H. P.; Huong, K. T.
Using structural control technology in earthquake resistant design of buildings in Vietnam is very limited. In this paper, a performance evaluation of using Single Friction Pendulum (SFP) bearing for seismically isolated buildings with earthquake conditions in Vietnam is presented. A two-dimensional (2-D) model of the 5-storey building subjected to earthquakes is analyzed in time domain. Accordingly, the model is analyzed for 2 cases: with and without SFP bearing. The ground acceleration data is selected and scaled to suit the design acceleration in Hanoi followed by the Standard TCVN 9386:2012. It is shown that the seismically isolated buildings gets the performance objectives while achieving an 91% reduction in the base shear, a significant decrease in the inter-story drift and absolute acceleration of each story.
Powers, Peter; Field, Edward H.
The 2014 update to the U. S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model in California introduces a new earthquake rate model and new ground motion models (GMMs) that give rise to numerous changes to seismic hazard throughout the state. The updated earthquake rate model is the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), wherein the rates of all ruptures are determined via a self-consistent inverse methodology. This approach accommodates multifault ruptures and reduces the overprediction of moderate earthquake rates exhibited by the previous model (UCERF2). UCERF3 introduces new faults, changes to slip or moment rates on existing faults, and adaptively smoothed gridded seismicity source models, all of which contribute to significant changes in hazard. New GMMs increase ground motion near large strike-slip faults and reduce hazard over dip-slip faults. The addition of very large strike-slip ruptures and decreased reverse fault rupture rates in UCERF3 further enhances these effects.
The two options that are fit for the upgrade are the over – excavation and stabilization options. The over - excavation method of enhancement of the performance of the subgrade materials that have been studied will require the excavation of the sub- grade soil to the depth of 0.7m and the subsequent replacement with ...
stressing the role of international law, and abstentionism from security alliance” (George J. Stein, 1990, p. 4). At the same time, the Dutch were reluctant...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited HOW TO STOP THE BEAR...estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining
C. H. Nelson
Full Text Available We summarize the importance of great earthquakes (Mw ≳ 8 for hazards, stratigraphy of basin floors, and turbidite lithology along the active tectonic continental margins of the Cascadia subduction zone and the northern San Andreas Transform Fault by utilizing studies of swath bathymetry visual core descriptions, grain size analysis, X-ray radiographs and physical properties. Recurrence times of Holocene turbidites as proxies for earthquakes on the Cascadia and northern California margins are analyzed using two methods: (1 radiometric dating (14C method, and (2 relative dating, using hemipelagic sediment thickness and sedimentation rates (H method. The H method provides (1 the best estimate of minimum recurrence times, which are the most important for seismic hazards risk analysis, and (2 the most complete dataset of recurrence times, which shows a normal distribution pattern for paleoseismic turbidite frequencies. We observe that, on these tectonically active continental margins, during the sea-level highstand of Holocene time, triggering of turbidity currents is controlled dominantly by earthquakes, and paleoseismic turbidites have an average recurrence time of ~550 yr in northern Cascadia Basin and ~200 yr along northern California margin. The minimum recurrence times for great earthquakes are approximately 300 yr for the Cascadia subduction zone and 130 yr for the northern San Andreas Fault, which indicates both fault systems are in (Cascadia or very close (San Andreas to the early window for another great earthquake.
On active tectonic margins with great earthquakes, the volumes of mass transport deposits (MTDs are limited on basin floors along the margins. The maximum run-out distances of MTD sheets across abyssal-basin floors along active margins are an order of magnitude less (~100 km than on passive margins (~1000 km. The great earthquakes along the Cascadia and northern California margins
Nishenko, S. P.; Savage, W. U.; Johnson, T.
With more than 25 million people at risk from high hazard faults in California alone, Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) presents a promising public safety and emergency response tool. EEW represents the real-time end of an earthquake information spectrum which also includes near real-time notifications of earthquake location, magnitude, and shaking levels; as well as geographic information system (GIS)-based products for compiling and visually displaying processed earthquake data such as ShakeMap and ShakeCast. Improvements to and increased multi-national implementation of EEW have stimulated interest in how such information products could be used in the future. Lifeline organizations, consisting of utilities and transportation systems, can use both onsite and regional EEW information as part of their risk management and public safety programs. Regional EEW information can provide improved situational awareness to system operators before automatic system protection devices activate, and allow trained personnel to take precautionary measures. On-site EEW is used for earthquake-actuated automatic gas shutoff valves, triggered garage door openers at fire stations, system controls, etc. While there is no public policy framework for preemptive, precautionary electricity or gas service shutdowns by utilities in the United States, gas shut-off devices are being required at the building owner level by some local governments. In the transportation sector, high-speed rail systems have already demonstrated the ‘proof of concept’ for EEW in several countries, and more EEW systems are being installed. Recently the Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) began collaborating with the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and others to assess the potential benefits of EEW technology to mass transit operations and emergency response in the San Francisco Bay region. A key issue in this assessment is that significant earthquakes are likely to occur close to or within the BART
Matsumura, Takao; Sato, Shoji; Kato, Muneaki
This paper describes the observed behavior of base-isolated buildings under real earthquake conditions. These buildings were constructed by five construction companies participating in the Joint Study on Seismic Isolation Systems for lightwater reactors. All the buildings are medium- or low-height buildings of reinforced-concrete structures with combinations of laminated rubber bearing or sliding bearings and various damping devices
Haddon, E. K.; Amos, C. B.; Zielke, Olaf; Jayko, A. S.; Burgmann, R.
The 1872 Owens Valley earthquake is the third largest known historical earthquake in California. Relatively sparse field data and a complex rupture trace, however, inhibited attempts to fully resolve the slip distribution and reconcile the total moment release. We present a new, comprehensive record of surface slip based on lidar and field investigation, documenting 162 new measurements of laterally and vertically displaced landforms for 1872 and prehistoric Owens Valley earthquakes. Our lidar analysis uses a newly developed analytical tool to measure fault slip based on cross-correlation of sublinear topographic features and to produce a uniquely shaped probability density function (PDF) for each measurement. Stacking PDFs along strike to form cumulative offset probability distribution plots (COPDs) highlights common values corresponding to single and multiple-event displacements. Lateral offsets for 1872 vary systematically from approximate to 1.0 to 6.0 m and average 3.31.1 m (2 sigma). Vertical offsets are predominantly east-down between approximate to 0.1 and 2.4 m, with a mean of 0.80.5 m. The average lateral-to-vertical ratio compiled at specific sites is approximate to 6:1. Summing displacements across subparallel, overlapping rupture traces implies a maximum of 7-11 m and net average of 4.41.5 m, corresponding to a geologic M-w approximate to 7.5 for the 1872 event. We attribute progressively higher-offset lateral COPD peaks at 7.12.0 m, 12.8 +/- 1.5 m, and 16.6 +/- 1.4 m to three earlier large surface ruptures. Evaluating cumulative displacements in context with previously dated landforms in Owens Valley suggests relatively modest rates of fault slip, averaging between approximate to 0.6 and 1.6 mm/yr (1 sigma) over the late Quaternary.
Haddon, E. K.
The 1872 Owens Valley earthquake is the third largest known historical earthquake in California. Relatively sparse field data and a complex rupture trace, however, inhibited attempts to fully resolve the slip distribution and reconcile the total moment release. We present a new, comprehensive record of surface slip based on lidar and field investigation, documenting 162 new measurements of laterally and vertically displaced landforms for 1872 and prehistoric Owens Valley earthquakes. Our lidar analysis uses a newly developed analytical tool to measure fault slip based on cross-correlation of sublinear topographic features and to produce a uniquely shaped probability density function (PDF) for each measurement. Stacking PDFs along strike to form cumulative offset probability distribution plots (COPDs) highlights common values corresponding to single and multiple-event displacements. Lateral offsets for 1872 vary systematically from approximate to 1.0 to 6.0 m and average 3.31.1 m (2 sigma). Vertical offsets are predominantly east-down between approximate to 0.1 and 2.4 m, with a mean of 0.80.5 m. The average lateral-to-vertical ratio compiled at specific sites is approximate to 6:1. Summing displacements across subparallel, overlapping rupture traces implies a maximum of 7-11 m and net average of 4.41.5 m, corresponding to a geologic M-w approximate to 7.5 for the 1872 event. We attribute progressively higher-offset lateral COPD peaks at 7.12.0 m, 12.8 +/- 1.5 m, and 16.6 +/- 1.4 m to three earlier large surface ruptures. Evaluating cumulative displacements in context with previously dated landforms in Owens Valley suggests relatively modest rates of fault slip, averaging between approximate to 0.6 and 1.6 mm/yr (1 sigma) over the late Quaternary.
Austria has a moderate seismicity, and on average the population feels 40 earthquakes per year or approximately three earthquakes per month. A severe earthquake with light building damage is expected roughly every 2 to 3 years in Austria. Severe damage to buildings ( I 0 > 8° EMS) occurs significantly less frequently, the average period of recurrence is about 75 years. For this reason the historical earthquake research has been of special importance in Austria. The interest in historical earthquakes in the past in the Austro-Hungarian Empire is outlined, beginning with an initiative of the Austrian Academy of Sciences and the development of historical earthquake research as an independent research field after the 1978 "Zwentendorf plebiscite" on whether the nuclear power plant will start up. The applied methods are introduced briefly along with the most important studies and last but not least as an example of a recently carried out case study, one of the strongest past earthquakes in Austria, the earthquake of 17 July 1670, is presented. The research into historical earthquakes in Austria concentrates on seismic events of the pre-instrumental period. The investigations are not only of historical interest, but also contribute to the completeness and correctness of the Austrian earthquake catalogue, which is the basis for seismic hazard analysis and as such benefits the public, communities, civil engineers, architects, civil protection, and many others.
Earthquake hazard analysis is of considerable importance for Switzerland, a country with moderate seismic activity but high economic values at risk. The evaluation of earthquake hazard, i.e. the determination of return periods versus ground motion parameters, requires a description of earthquake occurrences in space and time. In this study the seismic hazard for major cities in Switzerland is determined. The seismic hazard analysis is based on historic earthquake records as well as instrumental data. The historic earthquake data show considerable uncertainties concerning epicenter location and epicentral intensity. A specific concept is required, therefore, which permits the description of the uncertainties of each individual earthquake. This is achieved by probability distributions for earthquake size and location. Historical considerations, which indicate changes in public earthquake awareness at various times (mainly due to large historical earthquakes), as well as statistical tests have been used to identify time periods of complete earthquake reporting as a function of intensity. As a result, the catalog is judged to be complete since 1878 for all earthquakes with epicentral intensities greater than IV, since 1750 for intensities greater than VI, since 1600 for intensities greater than VIII, and since 1300 for intensities greater than IX. Instrumental data provide accurate information about the depth distribution of earthquakes in Switzerland. In the Alps, focal depths are restricted to the uppermost 15 km of the crust, whereas below the northern Alpine foreland earthquakes are distributed throughout the entire crust (30 km). This depth distribution is considered in the final hazard analysis by probability distributions. (author) figs., tabs., refs
Weinberger, Bernard R.; Lynds, Jr., Lahmer
A magnetically levitated superconducting bearing includes a magnet (2) mounted on a shaft (12) that is rotatable around an axis of rotation and a Type II superconductor (6) supported on a stator (14) in proximity to the magnet (2). The superconductor (6) is positioned so that when it is cooled to its superconducting state in the presence of a magnetic field, it interacts with the magnet (2) to produce an attractive force that levitates the magnet (2) and supports a load on the shaft (12). The interaction between the superconductor (6) and magnet(2) also produces surface screening currents (8) that generate a repulsive force perpendicular to the load. The bearing also has means for maintaining the superconductor at a temperature below its critical temperature (16, 18). The bearing could also be constructed so the magnet (2) is supported on the stator (14) and the superconductor (6) is mounted on the shaft (12). The bearing can be operated by cooling the superconductor (6) to its superconducting state in the presence of a magnetic field.
Crawford, Aaron L.
The Cache Valley Shoshone are the survivors of the Bear River Massacre, where a battle between a group of US. volunteer troops from California and a Shoshone village degenerated into the worst Indian massacre in US. history, resulting in the deaths of over 200 Shoshones. The massacre occurred due to increasing tensions over land use between the Shoshones and the Mormon settlers. Following the massacre, the Shoshones attempted settling in several different locations in Box Elder County, eventu...
California oil producers face a loss of production this year because of constraints on pipeline and tanker transportation to Los Angeles area refineries. The potential bottleneck is occurring at a time when Outer Continental Shelf production is near capacity from Chevron Corp.'s Point Arguello project at the same time production is increasing from Exxon Corp.'s nearby Santa Ynex Unit (SYU) expansion. Both megaprojects must compete for pipeline space with onshore crude producers, notably in California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Recent development limiting transportation options include: An indefinite shutdown of Four Corners Pipe Line Co.'s 50,000 b/d Line No. 1, damaged by the Jan. 17 earthquake; Loss of a tanker permit by Chevron and partners for offshore Point Arguello production; Permanent shutdown of Exxon's offshore storage and treatment (OST) facility, which since 1981 has used tankers to transport about 20,000 b/d of SYU production from the Santa Barbara Channel to Los Angeles. The OST, the first commercial floating production system in the US -- placed in the Santa Barbara Channel in 1981 after a decade of precedent setting legal and political battles -- was shut down Apr. 4. The paper discusses these production concerns, available options, the OST shutdown, and the troubled history of the OST
Wang, Chi-Yuen; Manga, Michael
Many streams and springs, which were dry or nearly dry before the 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa earthquake, started to flow after the earthquake. A United States Geological Survey stream gauge also registered a coseismic increase in discharge. Public interest was heightened by a state of extreme drought in California. Since the new flows were not contaminated by pre-existing surface water, their composition allowed unambiguous identification of their origin. Following the earthquake we repeatedly surveyed the new flows, collecting data to test hypotheses about their origin. We show that the new flows originated from groundwater in nearby mountains released by the earthquake. The estimated total amount of new water is ∼ 10(6) m(3), about 1/40 of the annual water use in the Napa-Sonoma area. Our model also makes a testable prediction of a post-seismic decrease of seismic velocity in the shallow crust of the affected region.
Lippiello, E; Marzocchi, W; de Arcangelis, L; Godano, C
An increase in the number of smaller magnitude events, retrospectively named foreshocks, is often observed before large earthquakes. We show that the linear density probability of earthquakes occurring before and after small or intermediate mainshocks displays a symmetrical behavior, indicating that the size of the area fractured during the mainshock is encoded in the foreshock spatial organization. This observation can be used to discriminate spatial clustering due to foreshocks from the one induced by aftershocks and is implemented in an alarm-based model to forecast m > 6 earthquakes. A retrospective study of the last 19 years Southern California catalog shows that the daily occurrence probability presents isolated peaks closely located in time and space to the epicenters of five of the six m > 6 earthquakes. We find daily probabilities as high as 25% (in cells of size 0.04 × 0.04deg(2)), with significant probability gains with respect to standard models.
Jacoby, G C; Sheppard, P R; Sieh, K E
Old trees growing along the San Andreas fault near Wrightwood, California, record in their annual ring-width patterns the effects of a major earthquake in the fall or winter of 1812 to 1813. Paleoseismic data and historical information indicate that this event was the "San Juan Capistrano" earthquake of 8 December 1812, with a magnitude of 7.5. The discovery that at least 12 kilometers of the Mojave segment of the San Andreas fault ruptured in 1812, only 44 years before the great January 1857 rupture, demonstrates that intervals between large earthquakes on this part of the fault are highly variable. This variability increases the uncertainty of forecasting destructive earthquakes on the basis of past behavior and accentuates the need for a more fundamental knowledge of San Andreas fault dynamics.
Jackson, D. D.
Finding anomalies is easy. Predicting earthquakes convincingly from such anomalies is far from easy. Why? Why have so many beautiful geophysical abnormalities not led to successful prediction strategies? What is earthquake prediction? By my definition it is convincing information that an earthquake of specified size is temporarily much more likely than usual in a specific region for a specified time interval. We know a lot about normal earthquake behavior, including locations where earthquake rates are higher than elsewhere, with estimable rates and size distributions. We know that earthquakes have power law size distributions over large areas, that they cluster in time and space, and that aftershocks follow with power-law dependence on time. These relationships justify prudent protective measures and scientific investigation. Earthquake prediction would justify exceptional temporary measures well beyond those normal prudent actions. Convincing earthquake prediction would result from methods that have demonstrated many successes with few false alarms. Predicting earthquakes convincingly is difficult for several profound reasons. First, earthquakes start in tiny volumes at inaccessible depth. The power law size dependence means that tiny unobservable ones are frequent almost everywhere and occasionally grow to larger size. Thus prediction of important earthquakes is not about nucleation, but about identifying the conditions for growth. Second, earthquakes are complex. They derive their energy from stress, which is perniciously hard to estimate or model because it is nearly singular at the margins of cracks and faults. Physical properties vary from place to place, so the preparatory processes certainly vary as well. Thus establishing the needed track record for validation is very difficult, especially for large events with immense interval times in any one location. Third, the anomalies are generally complex as well. Electromagnetic anomalies in particular require
Leach, R.R. Jr.; Dowla, F.U.
An earthquake warning system has been developed to provide a time series profile from which vital parameters such as the time until strong shaking begins, the intensity of the shaking, and the duration of the shaking, can be derived. Interaction of different types of ground motion and changes in the elastic properties of geological media throughout the propagation path result in a highly nonlinear function. We use neural networks to model these nonlinearities and develop learning techniques for the analysis of temporal precursors occurring in the emerging earthquake seismic signal. The warning system is designed to analyze the first-arrival from the three components of an earthquake signal and instantaneously provide a profile of impending ground motion, in as little as 0.3 sec after first ground motion is felt at the sensors. For each new data sample, at a rate of 25 samples per second, the complete profile of the earthquake is updated. The profile consists of a magnitude-related estimate as well as an estimate of the envelope of the complete earthquake signal. The envelope provides estimates of damage parameters, such as time until peak ground acceleration (PGA) and duration. The neural network based system is trained using seismogram data from more than 400 earthquakes recorded in southern California. The system has been implemented in hardware using silicon accelerometers and a standard microprocessor. The proposed warning units can be used for site-specific applications, distributed networks, or to enhance existing distributed networks. By producing accurate, and informative warnings, the system has the potential to significantly minimize the hazards of catastrophic ground motion. Detailed system design and performance issues, including error measurement in a simple warning scenario are discussed in detail.
Gomberg, J.; Bodin, P.; Reasenberg, P.A.
We examine the hypothesis that dynamic deformations associated with seismic waves trigger earthquakes in many tectonic environments. Our analysis focuses on seismicity at close range (within the aftershock zone), complementing published studies of long-range triggering. Our results suggest that dynamic triggering is not confined to remote distances or to geothermal and volcanic regions. Long unilaterally propagating ruptures may focus radiated dynamic deformations in the propagation direction. Therefore, we expect seismicity triggered dynamically by a directive rupture to occur asymmetrically, with a majority of triggered earthquakes in the direction of rupture propagation. Bilaterally propagating ruptures also may be directive, and we propose simple criteria for assessing their directivity. We compare the inferred rupture direction and observed seismicity rate change following 15 earthquakes (M 5.7 to M 8.1) that occured in California and Idaho in the United States, the Gulf of Aqaba, Syria, Guatemala, China, New Guinea, Turkey, Japan, Mexico, and Antarctica. Nine of these mainshocks had clearly directive, unilateral ruptures. Of these nine, seven apparently induced an asymmetric increase in seismicity rate that correlates with the rupture direction. The two exceptions include an earthquake preceded by a comparable-magnitude event on a conjugate fault and another for which data limitations prohibited conclusive results. Similar (but weaker) correlations were found for the bilaterally rupturing earthquakes we studied. Although the static stress change also may trigger seismicity, it and the seismicity it triggers are expected to be similarly asymmetric only if the final slip is skewed toward the rupture terminus. For several of the directive earthquakes, we suggest that the seismicity rate change correlates better with the dynamic stress field than the static stress change.
Prescott, W. H.; Nur, A.
Plate motion below the seismogenic layer along the San Andreas fault system in California is assumed to form by aseismic slip along a deeper extension of the fault or may result from lateral distribution of deformation below the seismogenic layer. The shallow depth of California earthquakes, the depth of the coseismic slip during the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, and the presence of widely separated parallel faults indicate that relative motion is distributed below the seismogenic zone, occurring by inelastic flow rather than by aseismic slip on discrete fault planes.
Full Text Available Abstract Introduction On 6 April 2009, at 03:32 local time, an Mw 6.3 earthquake hit the Abruzzi region of central Italy causing widespread damage in the City of L Aquila and its nearby villages. The earthquake caused 308 casualties and over 1,500 injuries, displaced more than 25,000 people and induced significant damage to more than 10,000 buildings in the L'Aquila region. Objectives This observational retrospective study evaluated the prevalence and drug treatment of pain in the five weeks following the L'Aquila earthquake (April 6, 2009. Methods 958 triage documents were analysed for patients pain severity, pain type, and treatment efficacy. Results A third of pain patients reported pain with a prevalence of 34.6%. More than half of pain patients reported severe pain (58.8%. Analgesic agents were limited to available drugs: anti-inflammatory agents, paracetamol, and weak opioids. Reduction in verbal numerical pain scores within the first 24 hours after treatment was achieved with the medications at hand. Pain prevalence and characterization exhibited a biphasic pattern with acute pain syndromes owing to trauma occurring in the first 15 days after the earthquake; traumatic pain then decreased and re-surged at around week five, owing to rebuilding efforts. In the second through fourth week, reports of pain occurred mainly owing to relapses of chronic conditions. Conclusions This study indicates that pain is prevalent during natural disasters, may exhibit a discernible pattern over the weeks following the event, and current drug treatments in this region may be adequate for emergency situations.
Brocher, Thomas M.; Filson, John R.; Fuis, Gary S.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Holzer, Thomas L.; Plafker, George; Blair, J. Luke
The magnitude 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake that struck south-central Alaska at 5:36 p.m. on Friday, March 27, 1964, is the largest recorded earthquake in U.S. history and the second-largest earthquake recorded with modern instruments. The earthquake was felt throughout most of mainland Alaska, as far west as Dutch Harbor in the Aleutian Islands some 480 miles away, and at Seattle, Washington, more than 1,200 miles to the southeast of the fault rupture, where the Space Needle swayed perceptibly. The earthquake caused rivers, lakes, and other waterways to slosh as far away as the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. Water-level recorders in 47 states—the entire Nation except for Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island— registered the earthquake. It was so large that it caused the entire Earth to ring like a bell: vibrations that were among the first of their kind ever recorded by modern instruments. The Great Alaska Earthquake spawned thousands of lesser aftershocks and hundreds of damaging landslides, submarine slumps, and other ground failures. Alaska’s largest city, Anchorage, located west of the fault rupture, sustained heavy property damage. Tsunamis produced by the earthquake resulted in deaths and damage as far away as Oregon and California. Altogether the earthquake and subsequent tsunamis caused 129 fatalities and an estimated $2.3 billion in property losses (in 2013 dollars). Most of the population of Alaska and its major transportation routes, ports, and infrastructure lie near the eastern segment of the Aleutian Trench that ruptured in the 1964 earthquake. Although the Great Alaska Earthquake was tragic because of the loss of life and property, it provided a wealth of data about subductionzone earthquakes and the hazards they pose. The leap in scientific understanding that followed the 1964 earthquake has led to major breakthroughs in earth science research worldwide over the past half century. This fact sheet commemorates Great Alaska Earthquake and
Salditch, L.; Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.; Campbell, M. R.
A challenge for earthquake hazard assessment is that geologic records often show large earthquakes occurring in temporal clusters separated by periods of quiescence. For example, in Cascadia, a paleoseismic record going back 10,000 years shows four to five clusters separated by approximately 1,000 year gaps. If we are still in the cluster that began 1700 years ago, a large earthquake is likely to happen soon. If the cluster has ended, a great earthquake is less likely. For a Gaussian distribution of recurrence times, the probability of an earthquake in the next 50 years is six times larger if we are still in the most recent cluster. Earthquake hazard assessments typically employ one of two recurrence models, neither of which directly incorporate clustering. In one, earthquake probability is time-independent and modeled as Poissonian, so an earthquake is equally likely at any time. The fault has no "memory" because when a prior earthquake occurred has no bearing on when the next will occur. The other common model is a time-dependent earthquake cycle in which the probability of an earthquake increases with time until one happens, after which the probability resets to zero. Because the probability is reset after each earthquake, the fault "remembers" only the last earthquake. This approach can be used with any assumed probability density function for recurrence times. We propose an alternative, Long-Term Fault Memory (LTFM), a modified earthquake cycle model where the probability of an earthquake increases with time until one happens, after which it decreases, but not necessarily to zero. Hence the probability of the next earthquake depends on the fault's history over multiple cycles, giving "long-term memory". Physically, this reflects an earthquake releasing only part of the elastic strain stored on the fault. We use the LTFM to simulate earthquake clustering along the San Andreas Fault and Cascadia. In some portions of the simulated earthquake history, events would
Kim, Min Kyu; Kim, Jung-Han; Choi, In-Kil
Dynamic characteristic tests of full scale lead rubber bearing were performed for the evaluation of performance criteria of isolation system for nuclear power plants. For the dynamic test for a full scale rubber bearing, two 1500mm diameter lead rubber bearings were manufactured. The viewpoints of this dynamic test are determination of an ultimate shear strain level of lead rubber bearing, behavior of rubber bearing according to static and dynamic input motion, sinusoidal and random (earthquake) motion, and 1-dimentional and 2-dimensional input motion. In this study, seismic isolation device tests were performed for the evaluation of performance criteria of isolation system. Through this test, it can be recognized that in the case of considering a mechanical property test, dynamic and multi degree of loading conditions should be determined. But these differences should be examined how much affect to the global structural behavior
Di Toro, G; Han, R; Hirose, T; De Paola, N; Nielsen, S; Mizoguchi, K; Ferri, F; Cocco, M; Shimamoto, T
The determination of rock friction at seismic slip rates (about 1 m s(-1)) is of paramount importance in earthquake mechanics, as fault friction controls the stress drop, the mechanical work and the frictional heat generated during slip. Given the difficulty in determining friction by seismological methods, elucidating constraints are derived from experimental studies. Here we review a large set of published and unpublished experiments (∼300) performed in rotary shear apparatus at slip rates of 0.1-2.6 m s(-1). The experiments indicate a significant decrease in friction (of up to one order of magnitude), which we term fault lubrication, both for cohesive (silicate-built, quartz-built and carbonate-built) rocks and non-cohesive rocks (clay-rich, anhydrite, gypsum and dolomite gouges) typical of crustal seismogenic sources. The available mechanical work and the associated temperature rise in the slipping zone trigger a number of physicochemical processes (gelification, decarbonation and dehydration reactions, melting and so on) whose products are responsible for fault lubrication. The similarity between (1) experimental and natural fault products and (2) mechanical work measures resulting from these laboratory experiments and seismological estimates suggests that it is reasonable to extrapolate experimental data to conditions typical of earthquake nucleation depths (7-15 km). It seems that faults are lubricated during earthquakes, irrespective of the fault rock composition and of the specific weakening mechanism involved.
An automobile lies crushed under the third story of this apartment building in the Marina District after the Oct. 17, 1989, Loma Prieta earthquake. The ground levels are no longer visible because of structural failure and sinking due to liquefaction. Sand and soil grains have faces that can cause friction as they roll and slide against each other, or even cause sticking and form small voids between grains. This complex behavior can cause soil to behave like a liquid under certain conditions such as earthquakes or when powders are handled in industrial processes. Mechanics of Granular Materials (MGM) experiments aboard the Space Shuttle use the microgravity of space to simulate this behavior under conditons that carnot be achieved in laboratory tests on Earth. MGM is shedding light on the behavior of fine-grain materials under low effective stresses. Applications include earthquake engineering, granular flow technologies (such as powder feed systems for pharmaceuticals and fertilizers), and terrestrial and planetary geology. Nine MGM specimens have flown on two Space Shuttle flights. Another three are scheduled to fly on STS-107. The principal investigator is Stein Sture of the University of Colorado at Boulder. Credit: J.K. Nakata, U.S. Geological Survey.
Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna
This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan.
This book is a comprehensive compilation of earthquake- and tsunami-related technologies and knowledge for the design and construction of nuclear facilities. As such, it covers a wide range of fields including civil engineering, architecture, geotechnical engineering, mechanical engineering, and nuclear engineering, for the development of new technologies providing greater resistance against earthquakes and tsunamis. It is crucial both for students of nuclear energy courses and for young engineers in nuclear power generation industries to understand the basics and principles of earthquake- and tsunami-resistant design of nuclear facilities. In Part I, "Seismic Design of Nuclear Power Plants", the design of nuclear power plants to withstand earthquakes and tsunamis is explained, focusing on buildings, equipment's, and civil engineering structures. In Part II, "Basics of Earthquake Engineering", fundamental knowledge of earthquakes and tsunamis as well as the dynamic response of structures and foundation ground...
Foreshock , mainshock and aftershock of the Parkfield, California earthquake of June 28, 1966. b. The Denver earthquake of August 9, 1967. Let us look...into the results of these tests in more details. (1) Test on the main shock, foreshock and aftershock of the Parkfield earthquake of June 28, 1966...According to McEvilly et. al. (1967), the origin times and locations of.these events were the following: Foreshock June 28, 1966, 04:08:56.2 GMT; 350 57.6
Choi, Chang Geun; Kim, Gyu Seok; Lee, Dong Geun
This book tells of occurrence of earthquake and damage analysis of earthquake, equivalent static analysis method, application of equivalent static analysis method, dynamic analysis method like time history analysis by mode superposition method and direct integration method, design spectrum analysis considering an earthquake-resistant design in Korea. Such as analysis model and vibration mode, calculation of base shear, calculation of story seismic load and combine of analysis results.
Langer, C.J.; Hartzell, S.
Teleseismic P and SH body waves are used in a finite-fault, waveform inversion for the rupture history of the 23 November 1977 western Argentina earthquake. This double event consists of a smaller foreshock (M0 = 5.3 ?? 1026 dyn-cm) followed about 20 s later by a larger main shock (M0 = 1.5 ?? 1027 dyn-cm). Our analysis indicates that these two events occurred on different fault segments: with the foreshock having a strike, dip, and average rake of 345??, 45??E, and 50??, and the main shock 10??, 45??E, and 80??, respectively. The foreshock initiated at a depth of 17 km and propagated updip and to the north. The main shock initiated at the southern end of the foreshock zone at a depth of 25 to 30 km, and propagated updip and unilaterally to the south. The north-south separation of the centroids of the moment release for the foreshock and main shock is about 60 km. The apparent triggering of the main shock by the foreshock is similar to other earthquakes that have involved the failure of multiple fault segments, such as the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake. Such occurrences argue against the use of individual, mapped, surface fault or fault-segment lengths in the determination of the size and frequency of future earthquakes.
Eric H. Maslen
Full Text Available The literature of active magnetic bearing (AMB technology dates back to at least 1937 when the earliest work that clearly describes an active magnetic bearing system was published by Jesse Beams [...
Hough, Susan E.; Page, Morgan T.
Recent studies have presented evidence that early to mid‐twentieth‐century earthquakes in Oklahoma and Texas were likely induced by fossil fuel production and/or injection of wastewater (Hough and Page, 2015; Frohlich et al., 2016). Considering seismicity from 1935 onward, Hauksson et al. (2015) concluded that there is no evidence for significant induced activity in the greater Los Angeles region between 1935 and the present. To explore a possible association between earthquakes prior to 1935 and oil and gas production, we first revisit the historical catalog and then review contemporary oil industry activities. Although early industry activities did not induce large numbers of earthquakes, we present evidence for an association between the initial oil boom in the greater Los Angeles area and earthquakes between 1915 and 1932, including the damaging 22 June 1920 Inglewood and 8 July 1929 Whittier earthquakes. We further consider whether the 1933 Mw 6.4 Long Beach earthquake might have been induced, and show some evidence that points to a causative relationship between the earthquake and activities in the Huntington Beach oil field. The hypothesis that the Long Beach earthquake was either induced or triggered by an foreshock cannot be ruled out. Our results suggest that significant earthquakes in southern California during the early twentieth century might have been associated with industry practices that are no longer employed (i.e., production without water reinjection), and do not necessarily imply a high likelihood of induced earthquakes at the present time.
Schaefer, Andreas M.; Daniell, James E.; Wenzel, Friedemann
Earthquake clustering is an essential part of almost any statistical analysis of spatial and temporal properties of seismic activity. The nature of earthquake clusters and subsequent declustering of earthquake catalogues plays a crucial role in determining the magnitude-dependent earthquake return period and its respective spatial variation for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. This study introduces the Smart Cluster Method (SCM), a new methodology to identify earthquake clusters, which uses an adaptive point process for spatio-temporal cluster identification. It utilises the magnitude-dependent spatio-temporal earthquake density to adjust the search properties, subsequently analyses the identified clusters to determine directional variation and adjusts its search space with respect to directional properties. In the case of rapid subsequent ruptures like the 1992 Landers sequence or the 2010-2011 Darfield-Christchurch sequence, a reclassification procedure is applied to disassemble subsequent ruptures using near-field searches, nearest neighbour classification and temporal splitting. The method is capable of identifying and classifying earthquake clusters in space and time. It has been tested and validated using earthquake data from California and New Zealand. A total of more than 1500 clusters have been found in both regions since 1980 with M m i n = 2.0. Utilising the knowledge of cluster classification, the method has been adjusted to provide an earthquake declustering algorithm, which has been compared to existing methods. Its performance is comparable to established methodologies. The analysis of earthquake clustering statistics lead to various new and updated correlation functions, e.g. for ratios between mainshock and strongest aftershock and general aftershock activity metrics.
The severity of an earthquake can be expressed in terms of both intensity and magnitude. However, the two terms are quite different, and they are often confused. Intensity is based on the observed effects of ground shaking on people, buildings, and natural features. It varies from place to place within the disturbed region depending on the location of the observer with respect to the earthquake epicenter. Magnitude is related to the amount of seismic energy released at the hypocenter of the earthquake. It is based on the amplitude of the earthquake waves recorded on instruments
In July 2010, in an effort to reduce future catastrophic natural disaster losses for California, the American Red Cross coordinated and sent a delegation of 20 multidisciplinary experts on earthquake response and recovery to Chile. The primary goal was to understand how the Chilean society and relevant organizations responded to the magnitude 8.8 Maule earthquake that struck the region on February 27, 2010, as well as how an application of these lessons could better prepare California communities, response partners and state emergency partners for a comparable situation. Similarities in building codes, socioeconomic conditions, and broad extent of the strong shaking make the Chilean earthquake a very close analog to the impact of future great earthquakes on California. To withstand and recover from natural and human-caused disasters, it is essential for citizens and communities to work together to anticipate threats, limit effects, and rapidly restore functionality after a crisis. The delegation was hosted by the Chilean Red Cross and received extensive briefings from both national and local Red Cross officials. During nine days in Chile, the delegation also met with officials at the national, regional, and local government levels. Technical briefings were received from the President’s Emergency Committee, emergency managers from ONEMI (comparable to FEMA), structural engineers, a seismologist, hospital administrators, firefighters, and the United Nations team in Chile. Cities visited include Santiago, Talca, Constitución, Concepción, Talcahuano, Tumbes, and Cauquenes. The American Red Cross Multidisciplinary Team consisted of subject matter experts, who carried out special investigations in five Teams on the (1) science and engineering findings, (2) medical services, (3) emergency services, (4) volunteer management, and (5) executive and management issues (see appendix A for a full list of participants and their titles and teams). While developing this
This report describes the results from three studies of source spectra, attenuation, and site effects of central and eastern United States earthquakes. In the first study source parameter estimates taken from 27 previous studies were combined to test the assumption that the earthquake stress drop is roughly a constant, independent of earthquake size. 200 estimates of stress drop and seismic moment from eastern North American earthquakes were combined. It was found that the estimated stress drop from the 27 studies increases approximately as the square-root of the seismic moment, from about 3 bars at 10 20 dyne-cm to 690 bars at 10 25 dyne-cm. These results do not support the assumption of a constant stress drop when estimating ground motion parameters from eastern North American earthquakes. In the second study, broadband seismograms recorded by the United States National Seismograph Network and cooperating stations have been analysed to determine Q Lg as a function of frequency in five regions: the northeastern US, southeastern US, central US, northern Basin and Range, and California and western Nevada. In the third study, using spectral analysis, estimates have been made for the anelastic attenuation of four regional phases, and estimates have been made for the source parameters of 27 earthquakes, including the M b 5.6, 14 April, 1995, West Texas earthquake
Johnson, Jo-Ann; Tough, Suzanne
To provide an overview of delayed child-bearing and to describe the implications for women and health care providers. Delayed child-bearing, which has increased greatly in recent decades, is associated with an increased risk of infertility, pregnancy complications, and adverse pregnancy outcome. This guideline provides information that will optimize the counselling and care of Canadian women with respect to their reproductive choices. Maternal age is the most important determinant of fertility, and obstetric and perinatal risks increase with maternal age. Many women are unaware of the success rates or limitations of assisted reproductive technology and of the increased medical risks of delayed child-bearing, including multiple births, preterm delivery, stillbirth, and Caesarean section. This guideline provides a framework to address these issues. Studies published between 2000 and August 2010 were retrieved through searches of PubMed and the Cochrane Library using appropriate key words (delayed child-bearing, deferred pregnancy, maternal age, assisted reproductive technology, infertility, and multiple births) and MeSH terms (maternal age, reproductive behaviour, fertility). The Internet was also searched using similar key words, and national and international medical specialty societies were searched for clinical practice guidelines and position statements. Data were extracted based on the aims, sample, authors, year, and results. The quality of evidence was rated using the criteria described in the Report of the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care (Table 1). The Society of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists of Canada. RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Women who delay child-bearing are at increased risk of infertility. Prospective parents, especially women, should know that their fecundity and fertility begin to decline significantly after 32 years of age. Prospective parents should know that assisted reproductive technologies cannot guarantee a live birth or completely
The u.s. government bulks large in the nation's financial markets. The huge volume of government-issued and -sponsored debt affects the pricing and volume ofprivate debt and, consequently, resource allocation between competing alternatives. What is often not fully appreciated is the substantial influence the federal government wields overresource allocation through its provisionofcreditandrisk-bearing services to the private economy. Because peopleand firms generally seekto avoid risk, atsomeprice they are willing to pay another party to assume the risk they would otherwise face. Insurance companies are a class of private-sector firms one commonly thinks of as providing these services. As the federal government has expanded its presence in the U.S. economy during this century, it has increasingly developed programs aimed at bearing risks that the private sector either would not take on at any price, or would take on but atapricethoughtto besogreatthatmostpotentialbeneficiarieswouldnotpurchase the coverage. To...
Post, Richard F.
An axial stabilizer for the rotor of a magnetic bearing provides external control of stiffness through switching in external inductances. External control also allows the stabilizer to become a part of a passive/active magnetic bearing system that requires no external source of power and no position sensor. Stabilizers for displacements transverse to the axis of rotation are provided that require only a single cylindrical Halbach array in its operation, and thus are especially suited for use in high rotation speed applications, such as flywheel energy storage systems. The elimination of the need of an inner cylindrical array solves the difficult mechanical problem of supplying support against centrifugal forces for the magnets of that array. Compensation is provided for the temperature variation of the strength of the magnetic fields of the permanent magnets in the levitating magnet arrays.
Rigney, T.K. II; Saville, M.P.
A superconducting bearing is described, comprising: a plurality of permanent magnets magnetized end-to-end and stacked side-by-side in alternating polarity, such that flux lines flow between ends of adjacent magnets; isolating means, disposed between said adjacent magnets, for reducing flux leakage between opposing sides of said adjacent magnets; and a member made of superconducting material having at least one surface in communication with said flux lines
Tope, W.G.; Nixon, D.A.; Smith, M.L.; Stone, T.J.; Vogel, R.A.; Schofield, W.D.
Fernald radium bearing ore residue waste, stored within Silos 1 and 2 (K-65) and Silo 3, will be vitrified for disposal at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). A comprehensive, parametric evaluation of waste form, packaging, and transportation alternatives was completed to identify the most cost-effective approach. The impacts of waste loading, waste form, regulatory requirements, NTS waste acceptance criteria, as-low-as-reasonably-achievable principles, and material handling costs were factored into the recommended approach
Kázmér, Miklós; Major, Balázs; Hariyadi, Agus; Pramumijoyo, Subagyo; Ditto Haryana, Yohanes
Earthquakes are among the most horrible events of nature due to unexpected occurrence, for which no spiritual means are available for protection. The only way of preserving life and property is applying earthquake-resistant construction methods. Ancient Greek architects of public buildings applied steel clamps embedded in lead casing to hold together columns and masonry walls during frequent earthquakes in the Aegean region. Elastic steel provided strength, while plastic lead casing absorbed minor shifts of blocks without fracturing rigid stone. Romans invented concrete and built all sizes of buildings as a single, unflexible unit. Masonry surrounding and decorating concrete core of the wall did not bear load. Concrete resisted minor shaking, yielding only to forces higher than fracture limits. Roman building traditions survived the Dark Ages and 12th century Crusader castles erected in earthquake-prone Syria survive until today in reasonably good condition. Concrete and steel clamping persisted side-by-side in the Roman Empire. Concrete was used for cheap construction as compared to building of masonry. Applying lead-encased steel increased costs, and was avoided whenever possible. Columns of the various forums in Italian Pompeii mostly lack steel fittings despite situated in well-known earthquake-prone area. Whether frequent recurrence of earthquakes in the Naples region was known to inhabitants of Pompeii might be a matter of debate. Seemingly the shock of the AD 62 earthquake was not enough to apply well-known protective engineering methods throughout the reconstruction of the city before the AD 79 volcanic catastrophe. An independent engineering tradition developed on the island of Java (Indonesia). The mortar-less construction technique of 8-9th century Hindu masonry shrines around Yogyakarta would allow scattering of blocks during earthquakes. To prevent dilapidation an intricate mortise-and-tenon system was carved into adjacent faces of blocks. Only the
Hockney, Richard L. (Inventor); Downer, James R. (Inventor); Eisenhaure, David B. (Inventor); Hawkey, Timothy J. (Inventor); Johnson, Bruce G. (Inventor)
A magnetic bearing system for enabling translational motion includes a carriage and a shaft for movably supporting the carriage; a first magnetic bearing fixed to one of the carriage and shaft and slidably received in a first channel of the other of the carriage and shaft. The first channel is generally U shaped with two side walls and a back wall. The magnetic bearing includes a pair of spaced magnetic pole pieces, each pole piece having a pair of electromagnetic coils mounted on poles on opposite ends of the pole piece proximate the side walls, and a third electromagnetic coil mounted on a pole of the pole piece proximate the backwall; a motion sensor for sensing translational motion along two axes and rotationally about three axes of the carriage and shaft relative to each other; and a correction circuit responsive to the sensor for generating a correction signal to drive the coils to compensate for any misalignment sensed between the carriage and the shaft.
Our principal activities during the initial phase of this project include: 1) Continued monitoring of postseismic deformation for the 1999 Izmit and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes from repeated GPS survey measurements and expansion of the Marmara Continuous GPS Network (MAGNET), 2) Establishing three North Anatolian fault crossing profiles (10 sitedprofile) at locations that experienced major surface-fault earthquakes at different times in the past to examine strain accumulation as a function of time in the earthquake cycle (2004), 3) Repeat observations of selected sites in the fault-crossing profiles (2005), 4) Repeat surveys of the Marmara GPS network to continue to monitor postseismic deformation, 5) Refining block models for the Marmara Sea seismic gap area to better understand earthquake hazards in the Greater Istanbul area, 6) Continuing development of models for afterslip and distributed viscoelastic deformation for the earthquake cycle. We are keeping close contact with MIT colleagues (Brad Hager, and Eric Hetland) who are developing models for S. California and for the earthquake cycle in general (Hetland, 2006). In addition, our Turkish partners at the Marmara Research Center have undertaken repeat, micro-gravity measurements at the MAGNET sites and have provided us estimates of gravity change during the period 2003 - 2005.
Escudero Ayala, Christian Rene
I use the Relative Source Time Function (RSTF) method to determine the source properties of earthquakes within southeastern Alaska-northwestern Canada in a first part of the project, and earthquakes within the Denali fault in a second part. I deconvolve a small event P-arrival signal from a larger event by the following method: select arrivals with a tapered cosine window, fast fourier transform to obtain the spectrum, apply water level deconvolution technique, and bandpass filter before inverse transforming the result to obtain the RSTF. I compare the source processes of earthquakes within the area to determine stress drop differences to determine their relation with the tectonic setting of the earthquakes location. Results show an consistency with previous results, stress drop independent of moment implying self-similarity, correlation of stress drop with tectonic regime, stress drop independent of depth, stress drop depends of focal mechanism where strike-slip present larger stress drops, and decreasing stress drop as function of time. I determine seismic wave attenuation in the central western United States using coda waves. I select approximately 40 moderate earthquakes (magnitude between 5.5 and 6.5) located alocated along the California-Baja California, California-Nevada, Eastern Idaho, Gulf of California, Hebgen Lake, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, off coast of Northern California, off coast of Oregon, southern California, southern Illinois, Vancouver Island, Washington, and Wyoming regions. These events were recorded by the EarthScope transportable array (TA) network from 2005 to 2009. We obtain the data from the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS). In this study we implement a method based on the assumption that coda waves are single backscattered waves from randomly distributed heterogeneities to calculate the coda Q. The frequencies studied lie between 1 and 15 Hz. The scattering attenuation is calculated for frequency bands centered
Jones, Lucile M.
The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can increase the long-term probability of a characteristic earthquake on that fault, which will, in turn, increase the probability that an event is a foreshock, compensating for the decrease caused by the aftershocks.
California Natural Resource Agency — These Data identify (in general) the areas where critical habitat for the California Condor occur. Critical habitat for the species consists of the following 10...
California Natural Resource Agency — California Spatial Information System (CaSIL) is a project designed to improve access to geo-spatial and geo-spatial related data information throughout the state of...
Dickinson, R.J.; Pennell, W.E.; Wasko, J.
A liquid metal pump bearing support comprises a series of tangentially oriented spokes that connect the bearing cylinder to the pump internals structure. The spokes may be arranged in a plurality of planes extending from the bearing cylinder to the pump internals with the spokes in one plane being arranged alternately with those in the next plane. The bearing support structure provides the pump with sufficient lateral support for the bearing structure together with the capability of accommodating differential thermal expansion without adversely affecting pump performance
Zuo, Hui-Qiang; Xie, Li-Li; Borcherdt, R. D.
The method for estimating the site effect on ground motion specified by Borcherdt (1994a, 1994b) is briefly introduced in the paper. This method and the detail geological data and site classification data in San Francisco bay area of California, the United States, are applied to simulate the influenced field of scenario earthquake by GIS technology, and the software for simulating has been drawn up. The paper is a partial result of cooperative research project between China Seismological Bureau and US Geological Survey.
In recent years, the utilization of time histories of earthquake ground motion has grown considerably in the design and analysis of civil structures. It is very unlikely, however, that recordings of earthquake ground motion will be available for all sites and conditions of interest. Hence, there is a need for efficient methods for the simulation and spatial interpolation of earthquake ground motion. In addition to providing estimates of the ground motion at a site using data from adjacent recording stations, spatially interpolated ground motions can also be used in design and analysis of long-span structures, such as bridges and pipelines, where differential movement is important. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology for rapid generation of horizontal earthquake ground motion at any site for a given region, based on readily available source, path and site characteristics, or (sparse) recordings. The research includes two main topics: (i) the simulation of earthquake ground motion at a given site, and (ii) the spatial interpolation of earthquake ground motion. In topic (i), models are developed to simulate acceleration time histories using the inverse discrete Fourier transform. The Fourier phase differences, defined as the difference in phase angle between adjacent frequency components, are simulated conditional on the Fourier amplitude. Uniformly processed recordings from recent California earthquakes are used to validate the simulation models, as well as to develop prediction formulas for the model parameters. The models developed in this research provide rapid simulation of earthquake ground motion over a wide range of magnitudes and distances, but they are not intended to replace more robust geophysical models. In topic (ii), a model is developed in which Fourier amplitudes and Fourier phase angles are interpolated separately. A simple dispersion relationship is included in the phase angle interpolation. The accuracy of the interpolation
Seismic verification can be performed either as a full scale test on a shaker table or as numerical calculations. In both cases it is necessary to have an earthquake acceleration time history. This report describes generation of such time histories by filtering white noise. Analogue and digital filtering methods are compared. Different methods of predicting the response spectrum of a white noise signal filtered by a band-pass filter are discussed. Prediction of both the average response level and the statistical variation around this level are considered. Examples with both the IEEE 301 standard response spectrum and a ground spectrum suggested for Swedish nuclear power stations are included in the report
Public Policy Institute of California, 2011
California's education system is not keeping up with the changing demands of the state's economy--soon, California will face a shortage of skilled workers. Projections to 2025 suggest that the economy will continue to need more and more highly educated workers, but that the state will not be able to meet that demand. If current trends persist,…
Bailey, Nancy E.
Millions of U.S. children attend schools that are not safe from earthquakes, even though they are in earthquake-prone zones. Several cities and states have worked to identify and repair unsafe buildings, but many others have done little or nothing to fix the problem. The reasons for ignoring the problem include political and financial ones, but…
The main purposes of this activity are to help students explore possible factors affecting the extent of the damage of earthquakes and learn the ways to reduce earthquake damages. In these inquiry-based activities, students have opportunities to develop science process skills and to build an understanding of the relationship among science,…
Middleton, Marc G.; Nelson, Richard T.
A hermetic refrigeration compressor has a cylinder block and a crankshaft rotatable about a vertical axis to reciprocate a piston in a cylinder on the cylinder block. A separate bearing housing is secured to the central portion of the cylinder block and extends vertically along the crankshaft, where it carries a pair of roller bearings to journal the crankshaft. The crankshaft has a radially extending flange which is journaled by a thrust-type roller bearing above the bearing housing to absorb the vertical forces on the crankshaft so that all three of the roller bearings are between the crankshaft and the bearing housing to maintain and control the close tolerances required by such bearings.
... Bear Hydro Partners, LLC and Black Bear Development Holdings, LLC and Black Bear SO, LLC; Notice of..., 2012, Black Bear Hydro Partners, LLC, sole licensee (transferor) and Black Bear Development Holdings, LLC and Black Bear SO, LLC (transferees) filed an application for the partial the transfer of licenses...
Abdujafar I. Akaev
Full Text Available Abstract. Objectives The aim of the research is to find optimal design solutions for the erection of buildings that will ensure their reliability and durability, compliance with environmental requirements, fire resistance and earthquake resistance. In this regard, the task is to determine the advantages and prospects of erecting earthquake resistant buildings from tube concrete constructions, since they are distinct in constructive, technological and economic efficiency when are used as vertical load-bearing struts of high-rise buildings. Method The technique for calculating the strength of normal sections of eccentrically-compressed tube concrete elements uses a nonlinear deformation model, taking into account the joint operation of the steel shell and the concrete core under the conditions of triaxial compression. Results In the article the review of the newest world experience of using tube concrete as vertical load-bearing structures for public facilities from the standpoint of earthquake resistant construction is given. The international practices of public facility construction ranging in height from 100 to 600 m with the use of tube concrete technology, including regions with dangerous natural and man-made conditions, have been studied. The structural, operational and technological advantages and disadvantages of tube concrete technology are analysed. Methods for calculating the strength of concrete tube elements in the case of central compression are considered: according to the so-called deformation theory, the state of total destruction of both concrete and tube fluidity attained at maximum pressure are indicated by the beginning of "tube flow on the longitudinal axis". The advantages and disadvantages of both methods are shown. Factors constraining the introduction and wider application of tube concrete constructions in Russia are considered. Conclusion While the advantages of concrete tube constructions in their extensive
Godoladze, T.; Gok, R.; Tvaradze, N.; Tumanova, N.; Gunia, I.; Onur, T.
The Caucasus has a documented historical catalog stretching back to the beginning of the Christian era. Most of the largest historical earthquakes prior to the 19th century are assumed to have occurred on active faults of the Greater Caucasus. Important earthquakes include the Samtskhe earthquake of 1283 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); Lechkhumi-Svaneti earthquake of 1350 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); and the Alaverdi earthquake of 1742 (Ms˜6.8, Io=9). Two significant historical earthquakes that may have occurred within the Javakheti plateau in the Lesser Caucasus are the Tmogvi earthquake of 1088 (Ms˜6.5, Io=9) and the Akhalkalaki earthquake of 1899 (Ms˜6.3, Io =8-9). Large earthquakes that occurred in the Caucasus within the period of instrumental observation are: Gori 1920; Tabatskuri 1940; Chkhalta 1963; Racha earthquake of 1991 (Ms=7.0), is the largest event ever recorded in the region; Barisakho earthquake of 1992 (M=6.5); Spitak earthquake of 1988 (Ms=6.9, 100 km south of Tbilisi), which killed over 50,000 people in Armenia. Recently, permanent broadband stations have been deployed across the region as part of the various national networks (Georgia (˜25 stations), Azerbaijan (˜35 stations), Armenia (˜14 stations)). The data from the last 10 years of observation provides an opportunity to perform modern, fundamental scientific investigations. In order to improve seismic data quality a catalog of all instrumentally recorded earthquakes has been compiled by the IES (Institute of Earth Sciences/NSMC, Ilia State University) in the framework of regional joint project (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, USA) "Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) in the Caucasus. The catalogue consists of more then 80,000 events. First arrivals of each earthquake of Mw>=4.0 have been carefully examined. To reduce calculation errors, we corrected arrivals from the seismic records. We improved locations of the events and recalculate Moment magnitudes in order to obtain unified magnitude
addition, several Federal candidate species, the California Hibiscus , California tiger salamander, Sacramento Anthicid Beetle, Sacramento Valley tiger...Board, California Waste Management Board, and Department of Health Services contribute to this list. The Yolo County Health Services Agency maintains and...operation and maintenance of the completed recreational facility. Recreation development is limited to project lands unless health and safety
The dynamics and consequences of introgression can inform about numerous evolutionary processes. Biologists have therefore long been interested in hybridization. One challenge, however, lies in the identification of nonadmixed genotypes that can serve as a baseline for accurate quantification of admixture. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Cahill et al. (2015) analyse a genomic data set of 28 polar bears, eight brown bears and one American black bear. Polar bear alleles are found to be introgressed into brown bears not only near a previously identified admixture zone on the Alaskan Admiralty, Baranof and Chichagof (ABC) Islands, but also far into the North American mainland. Elegantly contrasting admixture levels at autosomal and X chromosomal markers, Cahill and colleagues infer that male-biased dispersal has spread these introgressed alleles away from the Late Pleistocene contact zone. Compared to a previous study on the ABC Island population in which an Alaskan brown bear served as a putatively admixture-free reference, Cahill et al. (2015) utilize a newly sequenced Swedish brown bear as admixture baseline. This approach reveals that brown bears have been impacted by introgression from polar bears to a larger extent (up to 8.8% of their genome), than previously known, including the bear that had previously served as admixture baseline. No evidence for introgression of brown bear into polar bear is found, which the authors argue could be a consequence of selection. Besides adding new exciting pieces to the puzzle of polar/brown bear evolutionary history, the study by Cahill and colleagues highlights that wildlife genomics is moving from analysing single genomes towards a landscape genomics approach. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Thio, H. K.; Polet, J.
We have developed a system for rapid finite fault inversion for intermediate and large Southern California earthquakes using local, regional and teleseismic seismic waveforms as well as geodetic data. For modeling the local seismic data, we use 3D Green's functions from the Cybershake project, which were made available to us courtesy of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). The use of 3D Green's functions allows us to extend the inversion to higher frequency waveform data and smaller magnitude earthquakes, in addition to achieving improved solutions in general. The ultimate aim of this work is to develop the ability to provide high quality finite fault models within a few hours after any damaging earthquake in Southern California, so that they may be used as input to various post-earthquake assessment tools such as ShakeMap, as well as by the scientific community and other interested parties. Additionally, a systematic determination of finite fault models has value as a resource for scientific studies on detailed earthquake processes, such as rupture dynamics and scaling relations. We are using an established least-squares finite fault inversion method that has been applied extensively both on large as well as smaller regional earthquakes, in conjunction with the 3D Green's functions, where available, as well as 1D Green's functions for areas for which the Cybershake library has not yet been developed. We are carrying out validation and calibration of this system using significant earthquakes that have occurred in the region over the last two decades, spanning a range of locations and magnitudes (5.4 and higher).
Nelson, C. H.; Gutiérrez Pastor, J.; Goldfinger, C.; Escutia, C.
We summarize the importance of great earthquakes (Mw ≳ 8) for hazards, stratigraphy of basin floors, and turbidite lithology along the active tectonic continental margins of the Cascadia subduction zone and the northern San Andreas Transform Fault by utilizing studies of swath bathymetry visual core descriptions, grain size analysis, X-ray radiographs and physical properties. Recurrence times of Holocene turbidites as proxies for earthquakes on the Cascadia and northern California margins are analyzed using two methods: (1) radiometric dating (14C method), and (2) relative dating, using hemipelagic sediment thickness and sedimentation rates (H method). The H method provides (1) the best estimate of minimum recurrence times, which are the most important for seismic hazards risk analysis, and (2) the most complete dataset of recurrence times, which shows a normal distribution pattern for paleoseismic turbidite frequencies. We observe that, on these tectonically active continental margins, during the sea-level highstand of Holocene time, triggering of turbidity currents is controlled dominantly by earthquakes, and paleoseismic turbidites have an average recurrence time of ~550 yr in northern Cascadia Basin and ~200 yr along northern California margin. The minimum recurrence times for great earthquakes are approximately 300 yr for the Cascadia subduction zone and 130 yr for the northern San Andreas Fault, which indicates both fault systems are in (Cascadia) or very close (San Andreas) to the early window for another great earthquake. On active tectonic margins with great earthquakes, the volumes of mass transport deposits (MTDs) are limited on basin floors along the margins. The maximum run-out distances of MTD sheets across abyssal-basin floors along active margins are an order of magnitude less (~100 km) than on passive margins (~1000 km). The great earthquakes along the Cascadia and northern California margins cause seismic strengthening of the sediment, which
J. E. Daniell
Full Text Available The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes.
Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon.
Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected, and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured.
Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto ($214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>$300 billion USD at time of writing, 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product, exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index, and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons.
This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global
Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Vervaeck, A.
The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected), and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto (214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index), and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global reinsurance field.
The invention concerns self lubricating fluid bearings, which are used in a shaft sealed system extending two regions. These regions contain fluids, which have to be isolated. A first seal is fluid tight for the first region between the carter shaft and the shaft. The second seal is fluid tight between the carter and the shaft, it communicates with the second region. The first fluid region is the environment surrounding the shaft carter. The second fluid region is a part of a nuclear reactor which contains the cooling fluid. The shaft is conceived to drive a reactor circulating and cooling fluid [fr
Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Feltstykket, R.; Donnellan, A.; Glasscoe, M. T.
Earthquake forecasts have been computed by a variety of countries world-wide for over two decades. For the most part, forecasts have been computed for insurance, reinsurance and underwriters of catastrophe bonds. However, recent events clearly demonstrate that mitigating personal risk is becoming the responsibility of individual members of the public. Open access to a variety of web-based forecasts, tools, utilities and information is therefore required. Portals for data and forecasts present particular challenges, and require the development of both apps and the client/server architecture to deliver the basic information in real time. The basic forecast model we consider is the Natural Time Weibull (NTW) method (JBR et al., Phys. Rev. E, 86, 021106, 2012). This model uses small earthquakes (';seismicity-based models') to forecast the occurrence of large earthquakes, via data-mining algorithms combined with the ANSS earthquake catalog. This method computes large earthquake probabilities using the number of small earthquakes that have occurred in a region since the last large earthquake. Localizing these forecasts in space so that global forecasts can be computed in real time presents special algorithmic challenges, which we describe in this talk. Using 25 years of data from the ANSS California-Nevada catalog of earthquakes, we compute real-time global forecasts at a grid scale of 0.1o. We analyze and monitor the performance of these models using the standard tests, which include the Reliability/Attributes and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) tests. It is clear from much of the analysis that data quality is a major limitation on the accurate computation of earthquake probabilities. We discuss the challenges of serving up these datasets over the web on web-based platforms such as those at www.quakesim.org , www.e-decider.org , and www.openhazards.com.
Uyeda, S.; Varotsos, P.
' (SES) data are available as in Greece, the natural time analysis of the seismicity after the initiation of the SES allows the determination of the time window of the impending mainshock through the evolution of the value of κ1 itself. It was found to work also for the 1989 M7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake. If SES data are not available, we solely rely on the evolution of the fluctuations of κ1 obtained by computing κ1 values using a natural time window of certain length sliding through the earthquake catalog. The fluctuations of the order parameter, in terms of variability, i. e., standard deviation divided by average, was found to increase dramatically when approaching the 11 March M9 super- giant earthquake. In fact, such increase was also found for M7.1 Kobe in 1995, M8.0 Tokachi-oki in 2003 and Landers and Hector-Mines earthquakes in Southern California. It is worth mentioning that such increase is obtained straghtforwardly from ordinary earthquake catalogs without any adjustable parameters.
Bleier, T. E.; Dunson, J. C.; Roth, S.; Mueller, S.; Lindholm, C.; Heraud, J. A.
QuakeFinder, a private research group in California, reports on the development of a 100+ station network consisting of 3-axis induction magnetometers, and air conductivity sensors to collect and characterize pre-seismic electromagnetic (EM) signals. These signals are combined with daily Infra Red signals collected from the GOES weather satellite infrared (IR) instrument to compare and correlate with the ground EM signals, both from actual earthquakes and boulder stressing experiments. This presentation describes the efforts QuakeFinder has undertaken to automatically detect these pulse patterns using their historical data as a reference, and to develop other discriminative algorithms that can be used with air conductivity sensors, and IR instruments from the GOES satellites. The overall big picture results of the QuakeFinder experiment are presented. In 2007, QuakeFinder discovered the occurrence of strong uni-polar pulses in their magnetometer coil data that increased in tempo dramatically prior to the M5.1 earthquake at Alum Rock, California. Suggestions that these pulses might have been lightning or power-line arcing did not fit with the data actually recorded as was reported in Bleier . Then a second earthquake occurred near the same site on January 7, 2010 as was reported in Dunson , and the pattern of pulse count increases before the earthquake occurred similarly to the 2007 event. There were fewer pulses, and the magnitude of them was decreased, both consistent with the fact that the earthquake was smaller (M4.0 vs M5.4) and farther away (7Km vs 2km). At the same time similar effects were observed at the QuakeFinder Tacna, Peru site before the May 5th, 2010 M6.2 earthquake and a cluster of several M4-5 earthquakes.
Barrow, A.T.W.; Rivera-Diaz-del-Castillo, P.E.J.
θ-phase is the main hardening species in bearing steels and appears in both martensitically and bainitically hardened microstructures. This work presents a survey of the microstrucural features accompanying nanoprecipitation in bearing steels. Nanoprecipitate structures formed in 1C-1.5Cr wt.% with additions of Cr, Mn, Mo, Si and Ni are studied. The work is combined with thermodynamic calculations and neural networks to predict the expected matrix composition, and whether this will transform martensitically or bainitically. Martensite tetragonality, composition and the amount of retained austenite are related to hardness and the type of nanoprecipitate structures in martensitic grades. The θ-phase volume fraction, the duration of the bainite to austenite transformation and the amount of retained austenite are related to hardness and a detailed quantitative description of the precipitate nanostructures. Such description includes compositional studies using energy-dispersive spectroscopy, which shows that nanoprecipitate formation takes place under paraequilibrium. Special attention is devoted to a novel two-step bainite tempering process which shows maximum hardness; we prove that this is the most effective process for incorporating solute into the precipitates, which are finer than those resulting from one-step banitic transformation processes.
Coombs, T.A.; Campbell, A.M.; Ganney, I.; Lo, W. [Cambridge Univ. (United Kingdom). Interdisciplinary Research Centre in Superconductivity (IRC); Twardowski, T. [International Energy Systems, Chester High Road, Neston, South Wirral (United Kingdom); Dawson, B. [British Nuclear Fuels, Capenhurst, South Wirral (United Kingdom)
Investigations are being carried out into the use of superconducting magnetic bearings to levitate energy storage flywheels. In a planned program of work, Cambridge University are aiming to produce a practical bearing system for Pirouette(TM). The Pirouette(TM) system is designed to provide 5 kWh of recoverable energy which is currently recoverable at a rate of 5 kW (future revisions will provide up to 50 kW). IES (a British Nuclear Fuels subsidiary) the owners of the Pirouette(TM) machine have supplied Cambridge with a flywheel. This flywheel weighs >40 kg and is being levitated using an Evershed-type arrangement in which the superconductor is being used to stabilize the interaction between two magnets. To date we have demonstrated stable levitation in static and low speed tests in a rig designed for low speeds of rotation in air. A second rig which is currently under construction at BNFL will run in vacuum at speeds of up to 50 (orig.) 5 refs.
Mohadjer, Solmaz; Bendick, Rebecca; Halvorson, Sarah J.; Saydullaev, Umed; Hojiboev, Orifjon; Stickler, Christine; Adam, Zachary R.
We developed a middle school earthquake science and hazards curriculum to promote earthquake awareness to students in the Central Asian country of Tajikistan. These materials include pre- and post-assessment activities, six science activities describing physical processes related to earthquakes, five activities on earthquake hazards and mitigation…
This paper describes principle of determining of Design Basis Earthquake following the Examination Guide, some examples on actual sites including earthquake sources to be considered, earthquake response spectrum and simulated seismic waves. In sppendix of this paper, furthermore, seismic safety review for N.P.P designed before publication of the Examination Guide was summarized with Check Basis Earthquake. (J.P.N.)
Kato, Muneaki [Japan Atomic Power Co., Tokyo (Japan)
This paper describes principle of determining of Design Basis Earthquake following the Examination Guide, some examples on actual sites including earthquake sources to be considered, earthquake response spectrum and simulated seismic waves. In sppendix of this paper, furthermore, seismic safety review for N.P.P designed before publication of the Examination Guide was summarized with Check Basis Earthquake. (J.P.N.)
Lin, T. Y.
Full Text Available California University has just completed two buildings at Davis, one of nine storeys, and another smaller one, devoted to offices. Building involved the use of prefabricated, prestressed, load bearing units. The production and placing of these units required a very strict program of control and planning, as each of these operations had very specific features that were not straightforward. The walls, roof and floorings were made of load bearing panels. The lift and stair box was also an important structural element. Both this box and the cross bracing will take up loads arising from possible earthquake effects. As the building is situated on ground with poor resistance, the foundation consists of a number of inverted arches, which float on the soil, and distribute the loads uniformly over a wider area. The lifting of the various units was carried out with two moveable cranes fitted with very long lifting arms, both of which were operated in a closely integrated manner. The final success has been outstanding, both owing to the low cost, the saving in time, and also because it will be easy to extend the project at a later date, by merely moving the position of the lift box, and using the same type of building units.La Universidad de California acaba de construir dos edificios en Davis, uno de nueve plantas, destinado a clases, y otro de menor importancia para oficinas. La construcción debía realizarse con elementos prefabricados, pretensados y autorresistentes. La colocación y preparación de estos elementos se sometió a un estrecho y riguroso programa que se denominó crítico, pues cada una de sus fases presentaba particulares características que la diferenciaba de la siguiente. Los elementos constructivos principales—muros, cubierta y forjados—, debían componerse de paneles autorresistentes. Las cajas de escaleras y ascensores son, asimismo, resistentes; dichas cajas, junto con el arriostramiento general, absorben la mayor parte de las
Xu, Shiqing; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Sagy, Amir; Doan, Mai-Linh
A comprehensive understanding of earthquake rupture propagation requires the study of not only the sudden release of elastic strain energy during co-seismic slip, but also of other processes that operate at a variety of spatiotemporal scales. For example, the accumulation of the elastic strain energy usually takes decades to hundreds of years, and rupture propagation and termination modify the bulk properties of the surrounding medium that can influence the behavior of future earthquakes. To share recent findings in the multiscale investigation of earthquake rupture propagation, we held a session entitled "Physics of Earthquake Rupture Propagation" during the 2016 American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting in San Francisco. The session included 46 poster and 32 oral presentations, reporting observations of natural earthquakes, numerical and experimental simulations of earthquake ruptures, and studies of earthquake fault friction. These presentations and discussions during and after the session suggested a need to document more formally the research findings, particularly new observations and views different from conventional ones, complexities in fault zone properties and loading conditions, the diversity of fault slip modes and their interactions, the evaluation of observational and model uncertainties, and comparison between empirical and physics-based models. Therefore, we organize this Special Issue (SI) of Tectonophysics under the same title as our AGU session, hoping to inspire future investigations. Eighteen articles (marked with "this issue") are included in this SI and grouped into the following six categories.
Wakita, Hiroshi [Tokyo Univ. (Japan)
Systematic observation of groundwater radon for the purpose of earthquake prediction began in Japan in late 1973. Continuous observations are conducted at fixed stations using deep wells and springs. During the observation period, significant precursory changes including the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai (M7.0) earthquake as well as numerous coseismic changes were observed. At the time of the 1995 Kobe (M7.2) earthquake, significant changes in chemical components, including radon dissolved in groundwater, were observed near the epicentral region. Precursory changes are presumably caused by permeability changes due to micro-fracturing in basement rock or migration of water from different sources during the preparation stage of earthquakes. Coseismic changes may be caused by seismic shaking and by changes in regional stress. Significant drops of radon concentration in groundwater have been observed after earthquakes at the KSM site. The occurrence of such drops appears to be time-dependent, and possibly reflects changes in the regional stress state of the observation area. The absence of radon drops seems to be correlated with periods of reduced regional seismic activity. Experience accumulated over the two past decades allows us to reach some conclusions: 1) changes in groundwater radon do occur prior to large earthquakes; 2) some sites are particularly sensitive to earthquake occurrence; and 3) the sensitivity changes over time. (author)
Kianoosh, H.; Keypour, H.; Naderzadeh, A.; Motlagh, H.F.
Earthquake prediction has been one of the earliest desires of the man. Scientists have worked hard to predict earthquakes for a long time. The results of these efforts can generally be divided into two methods of prediction: 1) Statistical Method, and 2) Empirical Method. In the first method, earthquakes are predicted using statistics and probabilities, while the second method utilizes variety of precursors for earthquake prediction. The latter method is time consuming and more costly. However, the result of neither method has fully satisfied the man up to now. In this paper a new method entitled 'Kiana Method' is introduced for earthquake prediction. This method offers more accurate results yet lower cost comparing to other conventional methods. In Kiana method the electrical and magnetic precursors are measured in an area. Then, the time and the magnitude of an earthquake in the future is calculated using electrical, and in particular, electrical capacitors formulas. In this method, by daily measurement of electrical resistance in an area we make clear that the area is capable of earthquake occurrence in the future or not. If the result shows a positive sign, then the occurrence time and the magnitude can be estimated by the measured quantities. This paper explains the procedure and details of this prediction method. (authors)
Qamar, A.; Meagher, K.L.
The Klamath Falls earthquakes on September 20, 1993, were the largest earthquakes centered in Oregon in more than 50 yrs. Only the magnitude 5.75 Milton-Freewater earthquake in 1936, which was centered near the Oregon-Washington border and felt in an area of about 190,000 sq km, compares in size with the recent Klamath Falls earthquakes. Although the 1993 earthquakes surprised many local residents, geologists have long recognized that strong earthquakes may occur along potentially active faults that pass through the Klamath Falls area. These faults are geologically related to similar faults in Oregon, Idaho, and Nevada that occasionally spawn strong earthquakes.
The IAEA safety guides 50-SG-S1 and 50-SG-S2 emphasize on the determination of the design basis earthquake ground motion and earthquake resistant design considerations for nuclear power plants, respectively. Since the elaboration of these safety guides years have elapsed and a review of some of these concepts is necessary, taking into account the information collected and the technical developments. In this article, topics within the scope of these safety guides are discussed. In particular, the results of some recent research which may have a bearing on the nuclear industry are highlighted. Conclusions and recommendations are presented. 6 fig., 19 refs. (F.M.)
This book comprehensively presents the computational design of rolling bearings dealing with many interdisciplinary difficult working fields. They encompass elastohydrodynamics (EHD), Hertzian contact theory, oil-film thickness in elastohydrodynamic lubrication (EHL), bearing dynamics, tribology of surface textures, fatigue failure mechanisms, fatigue lifetimes of rolling bearings and lubricating greases, Weibull distribution, rotor balancing, and airborne noises (NVH) in the rolling bearings. Furthermore, the readers are provided with hands-on essential formulas based on the up-to-date DIN ISO norms and helpful examples for computational design of rolling bearings. The topics are intended for undergraduate and graduate students in mechanical and material engineering, research scientists, and practicing engineers who want to understand the interactions between these working fields and to know how to design the rolling bearings for automotive industry and many other industries.
A. S. Silina
Full Text Available A statistical analysis of several ionospheric parameters before earthquakes with magnitude M > 5.5 located less than 500 km from an ionospheric vertical sounding station is performed. Ionospheric effects preceding "deep" (depth h > 33 km and "crust" (h 33 km earthquakes were analysed separately. Data of nighttime measurements of the critical frequencies foF2 and foEs, the frequency fbEs and Es-spread at the middle latitude station Dushanbe were used. The frequencies foF2 and fbEs are proportional to the square root of the ionization density at heights of 300 km and 100 km, respectively. It is shown that two days before the earthquakes the values of foF2 averaged over the morning hours (00:00 LT–06:00 LT and of fbEs averaged over the nighttime hours (18:00 LT–06:00 LT decrease; the effect is stronger for the "deep" earthquakes. Analysing the coefficient of semitransparency which characterizes the degree of small-scale turbulence, it was shown that this value increases 1–4 days before "crust" earthquakes, and it does not change before "deep" earthquakes. Studying Es-spread which manifests itself as diffuse Es track on ionograms and characterizes the degree of large-scale turbulence, it was found that the number of Es-spread observations increases 1–3 days before the earthquakes; for "deep" earthquakes the effect is more intensive. Thus it may be concluded that different mechanisms of energy transfer from the region of earthquake preparation to the ionosphere occur for "deep" and "crust" events.
Lugt, Piet M
The definitive book on the science of grease lubrication for roller and needle bearings in industrial and vehicle engineering. Grease Lubrication in Rolling Bearings provides an overview of the existing knowledge on the various aspects of grease lubrication (including lubrication systems) and the state of the art models that exist today. The book reviews the physical and chemical aspects of grease lubrication, primarily directed towards lubrication of rolling bearings. The first part of the book covers grease composition, properties and rheology, including thermal
Rogers, A. M.; Langer, C.J.; Bucknam, R.C.
A Richter magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred at 8:31 p.m mountain daylight time on March 27, 1975, near the Utah-Idaho border in Pocatello Valley. The epicenter of the main shock was located at 42.094° N, 112.478° W, and had a focal depth of 5.5 km. This earthquake was the largest in the continental United States since the destructive San Fernando earthquake of February 1971. The main shock was preceded by a magnitude 4.5 foreshock on March 26.
Not all earthquakes shake the ground. The so-called silent types are forcing scientists to rethink their understanding of the way quake-prone faults behave. In rare instances, silent earthquakes that occur along the flakes of seaside volcanoes may cascade into monstrous landslides that crash into the sea and trigger towering tsunamis. Silent earthquakes that take place within fault zones created by one tectonic plate diving under another may increase the chance of ground-shaking shocks. In other locations, however, silent slip may decrease the likelihood of destructive quakes, because they release stress along faults that might otherwise seem ready to snap.
Kulak, R.F.; Hughes, T.H.
During the past decade, high-damping elastomer, steel-laminated seismic isolation bearings have gained acceptance as a device for isolating large buildings and structures from earthquake damage. In the United States, architectural engineering firms custom design isolators for each project and ten have the isolators manufactured by one of less than a hand-full of manufactures. The stiffness of the bearing is the single most important design parameter that the molded bearing must meet because it determines the fundamental frequency of the isolation system. This paper reports on recent research that examined several factors that cause real and potential variations to the stiffness of the bearing. The resulting changes to the fundamental frequency of the isolated structure are quantified for each factor. The following were examined: (1) dimensional tolerances, (2) frequency effects, (3) temperature effects, (4) cyclical effects, and (5) aging effects. It was found that geometric variations barely affect the stiffness whereas temperature variations greatly affect the stiffness
USGS GPS receiver use case. Item 1 - High Precision User (federal agency with Stafford Act hazard alert responsibilities for earthquakes, volcanoes and landslides nationwide). Item 2 - Description of Associated GPS Application(s): The USGS Eart...
Full Text Available Earthquake-induced deformation structures which are called seismites may helpful to clasify the paleoseismic history of a location and to estimate the magnitudes of the potention earthquakes in the future. In this paper, seismites were investigated according to the types formed in deep and shallow lake sediments. Seismites are observed forms of sand dikes, introduced and fractured gravels and pillow structures in shallow lakes and pseudonodules, mushroom-like silts protruding laminites, mixed layers, disturbed varved lamination and loop bedding in deep lake sediments. Earthquake-induced deformation structures, by benefiting from previous studies, were ordered according to their formations and earthquake magnitudes. In this order, the lowest eartquake's record is loop bedding and the highest one is introduced and fractured gravels in lacustrine deposits.
Rowe, W B
Hydrostatic and Hybrid Bearing Design is a 15-chapter book that focuses on the bearing design and testing. This book first describes the application of hydrostatic bearings, as well as the device pressure, flow, force, power, and temperature. Subsequent chapters discuss the load and flow rate of thrust pads; circuit design, flow control, load, and stiffness; and the basis of the design procedures and selection of tolerances. The specific types of bearings, their design, dynamics, and experimental methods and testing are also shown. This book will be very valuable to students of engineering des
Earle, Paul S.; Bowden, Daniel C.; Guy, Michelle R.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets) with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word "earthquake" clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.
Ouzounov, Dimitar; Pulintes, S.; Bryant, N.; Taylor, Patrick; Freund, F.
This work describes our search for a relationship between tectonic stresses and increases in mid-infrared (IR) flux as part of a possible ensemble of electromagnetic (EM) phenomena that may be related to earthquake activity. We present and &scuss observed variations in thermal transients and radiation fields prior to the earthquakes of Jan 22, 2003 Colima (M6.7) Mexico, Sept. 28 .2004 near Parkfield (M6.0) in California and Northern Sumatra (M8.5) Dec. 26,2004. Previous analysis of earthquake events has indicated the presence of an IR anomaly, where temperatures increased or did not return to its usual nighttime value. Our procedures analyze nighttime satellite data that records the general condtion of the ground after sunset. We have found from the MODIS instrument data that five days before the Colima earthquake the IR land surface nighttime temperature rose up to +4 degrees C in a 100 km radius around the epicenter. The IR transient field recorded by MODIS in the vicinity of Parkfield, also with a cloud free environment, was around +1 degree C and is significantly smaller than the IR anomaly around the Colima epicenter. Ground surface temperatures near the Parkfield epicenter four days prior to the earthquake show steady increase. However, on the night preceding the quake, a significant drop in relative humidity was indicated, process similar to those register prior to the Colima event. Recent analyses of continuous ongoing long- wavelength Earth radiation (OLR) indicate significant and anomalous variability prior to some earthquakes. The cause of these anomalies is not well understood but could be the result of a triggering by an interaction between the lithosphere-hydrosphere and atmospheric related to changes in the near surface electrical field and/or gas composition prior to the earthquake. The OLR anomaly usually covers large areas surrounding the main epicenter. We have found strong anomalies signal (two sigma) along the epicentral area signals on Dec 21
Lavenda, B. [Camerino Univ., Camerino, MC (Italy); Cipollone, E. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, S. Maria di Galeria, RM (Italy). National Centre for Research on Thermodynamics
A compound Poisson process is used to derive a new shape parameter which can be used to discriminate between large earthquakes and aftershocks sequences. Sample exceedance distributions of large earthquakes are fitted to the Pareto tail and the actual distribution of the maximum to the Frechet distribution, while the sample distribution of aftershocks are fitted to a Beta distribution and the distribution of the minimum to the Weibull distribution for the smallest value. The transition between initial sample distributions and asymptotic extreme value distributions show that self-similar power laws are transformed into non scaling exponential distributions so that neither self-similarity nor the Gutenberg-Richter law can be considered universal. The energy-magnitude transformation converts the Frechet distribution into the Gumbel distribution, originally proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, and not the Gompertz distribution as in the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz generalization of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Numerical comparison is made with the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz analysis using the same catalogue of Chinese earthquakes. An analogy is drawn between large earthquakes and high energy particle physics. A generalized equation of state is used to transform the Gamma density into the order-statistic Frechet distribution. Earthquake temperature and volume are determined as functions of the energy. Large insurance claims based on the Pareto distribution, which does not have a right endpoint, show why there cannot be a maximum earthquake energy.
Dramatic examples of catastrophic damage from an earthquake occurred in 1989, when the M 7.1 Lorna Prieta rocked the San Francisco Bay area, and in 1994, when the M 6.6 Northridge earthquake jolted southern California. The surprising amount and distribution of damage to private property and infrastructure emphasizes the importance of seismic-hazard research in urbanized areas, where the potential for damage and loss of life is greatest. During April 1995, a group of scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Tennessee, using an echo-sounding method described below, is collecting data in San Antonio Park, California, to examine the Monte Vista fault which runs through this park. The Monte Vista fault in this vicinity shows evidence of movement within the last 10,000 years or so. The data will give them a "picture" of the subsurface rock deformation near this fault. The data will also be used to help locate a trench that will be dug across the fault by scientists from William Lettis & Associates.
Jordan, T. H.
The goal of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is to provide the public with authoritative information about how seismic hazards are changing with time. During periods of high seismic activity, short-term earthquake forecasts based on empirical statistical models can attain nominal probability gains in excess of 100 relative to the long-term forecasts used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Prospective experiments are underway by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) to evaluate the reliability and skill of these seismicity-based forecasts in a variety of tectonic environments. How such information should be used for civil protection is by no means clear, because even with hundredfold increases, the probabilities of large earthquakes typically remain small, rarely exceeding a few percent over forecasting intervals of days or weeks. Civil protection agencies have been understandably cautious in implementing formal procedures for OEF in this sort of “low-probability environment.” Nevertheless, the need to move more quickly towards OEF has been underscored by recent experiences, such as the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake sequence and other seismic crises in which an anxious public has been confused by informal, inconsistent earthquake forecasts. Whether scientists like it or not, rising public expectations for real-time information, accelerated by the use of social media, will require civil protection agencies to develop sources of authoritative information about the short-term earthquake probabilities. In this presentation, I will discuss guidelines for the implementation of OEF informed by my experience on the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, convened by CalEMA, and the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting, convened by the Italian government following the L’Aquila disaster. (a) Public sources of information on short-term probabilities should be authoritative, scientific, open, and
Haddon, E.K.; Amos, C.B.; Zielke, O.; Jayko, Angela S.; Burgmann, R.
The 1872 Owens Valley earthquake is the third largest known historical earthquake in California. Relatively sparse field data and a complex rupture trace, however, inhibited attempts to fully resolve the slip distribution and reconcile the total moment release. We present a new, comprehensive record of surface slip based on lidar and field investigation, documenting 162 new measurements of laterally and vertically displaced landforms for 1872 and prehistoric Owens Valley earthquakes. Our lidar analysis uses a newly developed analytical tool to measure fault slip based on cross-correlation of sublinear topographic features and to produce a uniquely shaped probability density function (PDF) for each measurement. Stacking PDFs along strike to form cumulative offset probability distribution plots (COPDs) highlights common values corresponding to single and multiple-event displacements. Lateral offsets for 1872 vary systematically from ∼1.0 to 6.0 m and average 3.3 ± 1.1 m (2σ). Vertical offsets are predominantly east-down between ∼0.1 and 2.4 m, with a mean of 0.8 ± 0.5 m. The average lateral-to-vertical ratio compiled at specific sites is ∼6:1. Summing displacements across subparallel, overlapping rupture traces implies a maximum of 7–11 m and net average of 4.4 ± 1.5 m, corresponding to a geologic Mw ∼7.5 for the 1872 event. We attribute progressively higher-offset lateral COPD peaks at 7.1 ± 2.0 m, 12.8 ± 1.5 m, and 16.6 ± 1.4 m to three earlier large surface ruptures. Evaluating cumulative displacements in context with previously dated landforms in Owens Valley suggests relatively modest rates of fault slip, averaging between ∼0.6 and 1.6 mm/yr (1σ) over the late Quaternary.
Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Bausch, Douglas; Chen, Rui; Bouabid, Jawhar; Seligson, Hope
We make use of the most recent National Seismic Hazard Maps (the years 2008 and 2014 cycles), updated census data on population, and economic exposure estimates of general building stock to quantify annualized earthquake loss (AEL) for the conterminous United States. The AEL analyses were performed using the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Hazus software, which facilitated a systematic comparison of the influence of the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps in terms of annualized loss estimates in different parts of the country. The losses from an individual earthquake could easily exceed many tens of billions of dollars, and the long-term averaged value of losses from all earthquakes within the conterminous U.S. has been estimated to be a few billion dollars per year. This study estimated nationwide losses to be approximately $4.5 billion per year (in 2012$), roughly 80% of which can be attributed to the States of California, Oregon and Washington. We document the change in estimated AELs arising solely from the change in the assumed hazard map. The change from the 2008 map to the 2014 map results in a 10 to 20% reduction in AELs for the highly seismic States of the Western United States, whereas the reduction is even more significant for Central and Eastern United States.
Fielding, E. J.; Gombert, B.; Duputel, Z.; Huang, M. H.; Liang, C.; Bekaert, D. P.; Moore, A. W.; Liu, Z.; Ampuero, J. P.
Southern Mexico was struck by four earthquakes with Mw > 6 and numerous smaller earthquakes in September 2017, starting with the 8 September Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake beneath the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. We study whether this M8.2 earthquake triggered the three subsequent large M>6 quakes in southern Mexico to improve understanding of earthquake interactions and time-dependent risk. All four large earthquakes were extensional despite the the subduction of the Cocos plate. The traditional definition of aftershocks: likely an aftershock if it occurs within two rupture lengths of the main shock soon afterwards. Two Mw 6.1 earthquakes, one half an hour after the M8.2 beneath the Tehuantepec gulf and one on 23 September near Ixtepec in Oaxaca, both fit as traditional aftershocks, within 200 km of the main rupture. The 19 September Mw 7.1 Puebla earthquake was 600 km away from the M8.2 shock, outside the standard aftershock zone. Geodetic measurements from interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and time-series analysis of GPS station data constrain finite fault total slip models for the M8.2, M7.1, and M6.1 Ixtepec earthquakes. The early M6.1 aftershock was too close in time and space to the M8.2 to measure with InSAR or GPS. We analyzed InSAR data from Copernicus Sentinel-1A and -1B satellites and JAXA ALOS-2 satellite. Our preliminary geodetic slip model for the M8.2 quake shows significant slip extended > 150 km NW from the hypocenter, longer than slip in the v1 finite-fault model (FFM) from teleseismic waveforms posted by G. Hayes at USGS NEIC. Our slip model for the M7.1 earthquake is similar to the v2 NEIC FFM. Interferograms for the M6.1 Ixtepec quake confirm the shallow depth in the upper-plate crust and show centroid is about 30 km SW of the NEIC epicenter, a significant NEIC location bias, but consistent with cluster relocations (E. Bergman, pers. comm.) and with Mexican SSN location. Coulomb static stress
Watanabe, Keita; Nagase, Ryuichi
Radial Support Keys (RSKs) are installed at the bottom of Reactor Vessel Internal (RVI) of Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) and fit into Core Support Lugs of Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV). This structure provides reactor core horizontal support and transmits the loads between RVI and RPV. RSK is one of the critical parts of RVI from the view point of earthquake-proof safety. In order to assure the structural integrity of Nuclear Reactor in case of massive earthquake, load bearing capacities of RSK are confirmed by static loading tests with reduced-scale mockups. In addition, collapse loads of actual components calculated by Limit Analyses are conservative enough compared to the load bearing capacities confirmed by the test. Thus, the methodology to calculate collapse load by Limit Analysis is applicable to evaluation of structural integrity for RSK. (author)
Jackson, D. D.; Liukis, M.; Werner, M. J.; Schorlemmer, D.; Yu, J.; Maechling, P. J.; Zechar, J. D.; Jordan, T. H.
Maria Liukis, SCEC, USC; Maximilian Werner, University of Bristol; Danijel Schorlemmer, GFZ Potsdam; John Yu, SCEC, USC; Philip Maechling, SCEC, USC; Jeremy Zechar, Swiss Seismological Service, ETH; Thomas H. Jordan, SCEC, USC, and the CSEP Working Group The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) supports a global program to conduct prospective earthquake forecasting experiments. CSEP testing centers are now operational in California, New Zealand, Japan, China, and Europe with 435 models under evaluation. The California testing center, operated by SCEC, has been operational since Sept 1, 2007, and currently hosts 30-minute, 1-day, 3-month, 1-year and 5-year forecasts, both alarm-based and probabilistic, for California, the Western Pacific, and worldwide. We have reduced testing latency, implemented prototype evaluation of M8 forecasts, and are currently developing formats and procedures to evaluate externally-hosted forecasts and predictions. These efforts are related to CSEP support of the USGS program in operational earthquake forecasting and a DHS project to register and test external forecast procedures from experts outside seismology. A retrospective experiment for the 2010-2012 Canterbury earthquake sequence has been completed, and the results indicate that some physics-based and hybrid models outperform purely statistical (e.g., ETAS) models. The experiment also demonstrates the power of the CSEP cyberinfrastructure for retrospective testing. Our current development includes evaluation strategies that increase computational efficiency for high-resolution global experiments, such as the evaluation of the Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model. We describe the open-source CSEP software that is available to researchers as they develop their forecast models (http://northridge.usc.edu/trac/csep/wiki/MiniCSEP). We also discuss applications of CSEP infrastructure to geodetic transient detection and how CSEP procedures are being
Benthien, M. L.; Wood, M. M.; Ballmann, J. E.; DeGroot, R. M.
The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), headquartered at the University of Southern California, is a collaboration of more than 1000 scientists and students from 70+ institutions. SCEC's Communication, Education, and Outreach (CEO) program translates earthquake science into products and activities in order to increase scientific literacy, develop a diverse scientific workforce, and reduce earthquake risk to life and property. SCEC CEO staff coordinate these efforts through partnership collaborations it has established to engage subject matter experts, reduce duplication of effort, and achieve greater results. Several of SCEC's collaborative networks began within Southern California and have since grown statewide (Earthquake Country Alliance, a public-private-grassroots partnership), national ("EPIcenter" Network of museums, parks, libraries, etc.), and international (Great ShakeOut Earthquake Drills with millions of participants each year). These networks have benefitted greatly from partnerships with national (FEMA), state, and local emergency managers. Other activities leverage SCEC's networks in new ways and with national earth science organizations, such as the EarthConnections Program (with IRIS, NAGT, and many others), Quake Catcher Network (with IRIS) and the GeoHazards Messaging Collaboratory (with IRIS, UNAVCO, and USGS). Each of these partnerships share a commitment to service, collaborative development, and the application of research (including social science theory for motivating preparedness behaviors). SCEC CEO is developing new evaluative structures and adapting the Collective Impact framework to better understand what has worked well or what can be improved, according to the framework's five key elements: create a common agenda; share common indicators and measurement; engage diverse stakeholders to coordinate mutually reinforcing activities; initiate continuous communication; and provide "backbone" support. This presentation will provide
Jaiswal, Kishor; Bausch, Doug; Rozelle, Jesse; Holub, John; McGowan, Sean
Large earthquakes can cause social and economic disruption that can be unprecedented to any given community, and the full recovery from these impacts may or may not always be achievable. In the United States (U.S.), the 1994 M6.7 Northridge earthquake in California remains the third costliest disaster in U.S. history; and it was one of the most expensive disasters for the federal government. Internationally, earthquakes in the last decade alone have claimed tens of thousands of lives and caused hundreds of billions of dollars of economic impact throughout the globe (~90 billion U.S. dollars (USD) from 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan China, ~20 billion USD from 2010 M8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile, ~220 billion USD from 2011 M9.0 Tohoku Japan earthquake, ~25 billion USD from 2011 M6.3 Christchurch New Zealand, and ~22 billion USD from 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto Japan). Recent earthquakes show a pattern of steadily increasing damages and losses that are primarily due to three key factors: (1) significant growth in earthquake-prone urban areas, (2) vulnerability of the older building stock, including poorly engineered non-ductile concrete buildings, and (3) an increased interdependency in terms of supply and demand for the businesses that operate among different parts of the world. In the United States, earthquake risk continues to grow with increased exposure of population and development even though the earthquake hazard has remained relatively stable except for the regions of induced seismic activity. Understanding the seismic hazard requires studying earthquake characteristics and locales in which they occur, while understanding the risk requires an assessment of the potential damage from earthquake shaking to the built environment and to the welfare of people—especially in high-risk areas. Estimating the varying degree of earthquake risk throughout the United States is critical for informed decision-making on mitigation policies, priorities, strategies, and funding levels in the
Gao, Meng-Tan; Jin, Xue-Shen; An, Wei-Ping; Lü, Xiao-Jian
The geography information system of the 1303 Hongton M=8 earthquake has been established. Using the spatial analysis function of GIS, the spatial distribution characteristics of damage and isoseismal of the earthquake are studies. By comparing with the standard earthquake intensity attenuation relationship, the abnormal damage distribution of the earthquake is found, so the relationship of the abnormal distribution with tectonics, site condition and basin are analyzed. In this paper, the influence on the ground motion generated by earthquake source and the underground structures near source also are studied. The influence on seismic zonation, anti-earthquake design, earthquake prediction and earthquake emergency responding produced by the abnormal density distribution are discussed.
Rizescu, M.; Ghica, D.; Grecu, B.; Popa, M.; Borcia, I. S.
A new earthquake database for Romania is being constructed, comprising complete earthquake information and being up-to-date, user-friendly and rapidly accessible. One main component of the database consists from the catalog of earthquakes occurred in Romania since 984 up to present. The catalog contains information related to locations and other source parameters, when available, and links to waveforms of important earthquakes. The other very important component is the 'strong motion database', developed for strong intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes where instrumental data were recorded. Different parameters to characterize strong motion properties as: effective peak acceleration, effective peak velocity, corner periods T c and T d , global response spectrum based intensities were computed and recorded into this database. Also, information on the recording seismic stations as: maps giving their positioning, photographs of the instruments and site conditions ('free-field or on buildings) are included. By the huge volume and quality of gathered data, also by its friendly user interface, the Romania earthquake data base provides a very useful tool for geosciences and civil engineering in their effort towards reducing seismic risk in Romania. (authors)
Arnold, Richard; Townend, John; Vignaux, Tony
An earthquakes occurs when the forces acting on a fault overcome its intrinsic strength and cause it to slip abruptly. Understanding more specifically why earthquakes occur at particular locations and times is complicated because in many cases we do not know what these forces actually are, or indeed what processes ultimately trigger slip. The goal of this study is to develop, test, and implement a Bayesian method of reliably determining tectonic stresses using the most abundant stress gauges available - earthquakes themselves.Existing algorithms produce reasonable estimates of the principal stress directions, but yield unreliable error bounds as a consequence of the generally weak constraint on stress imposed by any single earthquake, observational errors, and an unavoidable ambiguity between the fault normal and the slip vector.A statistical treatment of the problem can take into account observational errors, combine data from multiple earthquakes in a consistent manner, and provide realistic error bounds on the estimated principal stress directions.We have developed a realistic physical framework for modelling multiple earthquakes and show how the strong physical and geometrical constraints present in this problem allow inference to be made about the orientation of the principal axes of stress in the earth's crust
A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)
Earthquakes are some of the most elusive and destructive disasters humans interact with on this planet. Engineering structures to withstand earthquake shaking is critical to ensure minimal loss of life and property. However, the majority of buildings today in non-traditional earthquake prone areas are not built to withstand this devastating force. Understanding basic earthquake engineering principles and the effect of limited resources helps students grasp the challenge that lies ahead. The solution can be found in retrofitting existing buildings with proper reinforcements and designs to deal with this deadly disaster. The students were challenged in this project to construct a basic structure, using limited resources, that could withstand a simulated tremor through the use of an earthquake shake table. Groups of students had to work together to creatively manage their resources and ideas to design the most feasible and realistic type of building. This activity provided a wealth of opportunities for the students to learn more about a type of disaster they do not experience in this part of the country. Due to the fact that most buildings in New York City were not designed to withstand earthquake shaking, the students were able to gain an appreciation for how difficult it would be to prepare every structure in the city for this type of event.
Harris, Ruth A.
Faults are ubiquitous throughout the Earth's crust. The majority are silent for decades to centuries, until they suddenly rupture and produce earthquakes. With a focus on shallow continental active-tectonic regions, this paper reviews a subset of faults that have a different behavior. These unusual faults slowly creep for long periods of time and produce many small earthquakes. The presence of fault creep and the related microseismicity helps illuminate faults that might not otherwise be located in fine detail, but there is also the question of how creeping faults contribute to seismic hazard. It appears that well-recorded creeping fault earthquakes of up to magnitude 6.6 that have occurred in shallow continental regions produce similar fault-surface rupture areas and similar peak ground shaking as their locked fault counterparts of the same earthquake magnitude. The behavior of much larger earthquakes on shallow creeping continental faults is less well known, because there is a dearth of comprehensive observations. Computational simulations provide an opportunity to fill the gaps in our understanding, particularly of the dynamic processes that occur during large earthquake rupture and arrest.
Pratt, H.R.; Hustrulid, W.A.; Stephenson, D.E.
The potential seismic risk for an underground nuclear waste repository will be one of the considerations in evaluating its ultimate location. However, the risk to subsurface facilities cannot be judged by applying intensity ratings derived from the surface effects of an earthquake. A literature review and analysis were performed to document the damage and non-damage due to earthquakes to underground facilities. Damage from earthquakes to tunnels, s, and wells and damage (rock bursts) from mining operations were investigated. Damage from documented nuclear events was also included in the study where applicable. There are very few data on damage in the subsurface due to earthquakes. This fact itself attests to the lessened effect of earthquakes in the subsurface because mines exist in areas where strong earthquakes have done extensive surface damage. More damage is reported in shallow tunnels near the surface than in deep mines. In mines and tunnels, large displacements occur primarily along pre-existing faults and fractures or at the surface entrance to these facilities.Data indicate vertical structures such as wells and shafts are less susceptible to damage than surface facilities. More analysis is required before seismic criteria can be formulated for the siting of a nuclear waste repository
Holzer, Thomas L.; Savage, James C.
Modern global earthquake fatalities can be separated into two components: (1) fatalities from an approximately constant annual background rate that is independent of world population growth and (2) fatalities caused by earthquakes with large human death tolls, the frequency of which is dependent on world population. Earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (and 50,000) have increased with world population and obey a nonstationary Poisson distribution with rate proportional to population. We predict that the number of earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (50,000) will increase in the 21st century to 8.7±3.3 (20.5±4.3) from 4 (7) observed in the 20th century if world population reaches 10.1 billion in 2100. Combining fatalities caused by the background rate with fatalities caused by catastrophic earthquakes (>100,000 fatalities) indicates global fatalities in the 21st century will be 2.57±0.64 million if the average post-1900 death toll for catastrophic earthquakes (193,000) is assumed.
Abrahamsen, Asger Bech
A literature study on the application of superconducting bearings in energy storage flywheel systems. The physics of magnetic levitation and superconductors are presented in the first part of the report, followed by a discussion of the literature found on the applications of superconducting bearings in flywheels. (au)
A literature study on the application of superconducting bearings in energy storage flywheel systems. The physics of magnetic levitation and superconductors are presented in the first part of the report, followed by a discussion of the literature found onthe applications of superconducting bearings...
Smith, A.R.; Wollenberg, H.A.; Mosier, D.F.
The concentration of 222 Rn in subsurface waters is one of the natural parameters being investigated to help develop the capability to predict destructive earthquakes. Since 1966, scientists in several nations have sought to link radon variations with ongoing seismic activity, primarily through the dilatancy model for earthquake occurrences. Within the range of these studies, alpha-, beta-, and gamma-radiation detection techniques have been used in both discrete-sampling and continiuous-monitoring programs. These measured techniques are reviewed in terms of instrumentation adapted to seismic-monitoring purposes. A recent Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory study conducted in central California incorporated discrete sampling of wells in the aftershock area of the 1975 Oroville earthquake and continuous monitoring of water radon in a well on the San Andreas Fault. The results presented show short-term radon variations that may be associated with aftershocks and diurnal changes that may reflect earth tidal forces
Chang, Mark K.; Kwiatkowski, Jan W.; Nau, Robert F.; Oliver, Robert M.; Pister, Karl S.
This report contains an analysis of four major California earthquake records using a class of discrete linear time-domain processes commonly referred to as ARMA (Autoregressive/Moving-Average) models. It has been possible to analyze these different earthquakes, identify the order of the appropriate ARMA model(s), estimate parameters and test the residuals generated by these models. It has also been possible to show the connections, similarities and differences between the traditional continuous models (with parameter estimates based on spectral analyses) and the discrete models with parameters estimated by various maximum likelihood techniques applied to digitized acceleration data in the time domain. The methodology proposed in this report is suitable for simulating earthquake ground motions in the time domain and appears to be easily adapted to serve as inputs for nonlinear discrete time models of structural motions. (author)
In 1995, Robert S.Yeats found himself teaching a core curriculum class at Oregon State University for undergraduate nonscience majors, linking recent discoveries on the earthquake hazard in the Pacific Northwest to societal response to those hazards. The notes for that course evolved into the first edition of this book, published in 1998. In 2001, he published a similar book, Living With Earthquakes in California: A Survivors Guide (Oregon State University Press).Recent earthquakes, such as the 2001 Nisqually Mw6.8, discoveries, and new techniques in paleoseismology plus changes in public policy decisions, quickly outdated the first Pacific Northwest edition. This is especially true with the Cascadia Subduction Zone and crustal faults, where our knowledge expands with every scientific meeting.
Velasco, A. A.; Cerda, I.; Linville, L.; Kilb, D. L.; Pankow, K. L.
Changes in field stress required to trigger earthquakes have been classified in two basic ways: static and dynamic triggering. Static triggering occurs when an earthquake that releases accumulated strain along a fault stress loads a nearby fault. Dynamic triggering occurs when an earthquake is induced by the passing of seismic waves from a large mainshock located at least two or more fault lengths from the epicenter of the main shock. We investigate details of dynamic triggering using data collected from EarthScope's USArray and regional seismic networks located in the United States. Triggered events are identified using an optimized automated detector based on the ratio of short term to long term average (Antelope software). Following the automated processing, the flagged waveforms are individually analyzed, in both the time and frequency domains, to determine if the increased detection rates correspond to local earthquakes (i.e., potentially remotely triggered aftershocks). Here, we show results using this automated schema applied to data from four large, but characteristically different, earthquakes -- Chile (Mw 8.8 2010), Tokoku-Oki (Mw 9.0 2011), Baja California (Mw 7.2 2010) and Wells Nevada (Mw 6.0 2008). For each of our four mainshocks, the number of detections within the 10 hour time windows span a large range (1 to over 200) and statistically >20% of the waveforms show evidence of anomalous signals following the mainshock. The results will help provide for a better understanding of the physical mechanisms involved in dynamic earthquake triggering and will help identify zones in the continental U.S. that may be more susceptible to dynamic earthquake triggering.
Reinen, L. A.
Residents of southern California are aware they live in a seismically active area and earthquake drills have trained us to Duck-Cover-Hold On. While many of my acquaintance are familiar with what to do during an earthquake, few have made preparations for living with the aftermath of a large earthquake. The ShakeOut Scenario (Jones et al., USGS Open File Report 2008-1150) describes the physical, social, and economic consequences of a plausible M7.8 earthquake on the southernmost San Andreas Fault. While not detailing an actual event, the ShakeOut Scenario illustrates how individual and community preparation may improve the potential after-affects of a major earthquake in the region. To address the gap between earthquake drills and preparation in my community, for the past several years I have been giving public talks to promote understanding of: the science behind the earthquake predictions; why individual, as well as community, preparation is important; and, ways in which individuals can prepare their home and work environments. The public presentations occur in an array of venues, including elementary school and college classes, a community forum linked with the annual ShakeOut Drill, and local businesses including the local microbrewery. While based on the same fundamental information, each presentation is modified for audience and setting. Assessment of the impact of these talks is primarily anecdotal and includes an increase in the number of venues requesting these talks, repeat invitations, and comments from audience members (sometimes months or years after a talk). I will present elements of these talks, the background information used, and examples of how they have affected change in the earthquake preparedness of audience members. Discussion and suggestions (particularly about effective means of conducting rigorous long-term assessment) are strongly encouraged.
Everman, Michael R.; Jones, P. Alan; Spencer, Porter A.
Perhaps the most critical structural system aboard the Space Station is the Solar Alpha Rotary Joint which helps align the power generation system with the sun. The joint must provide structural support and controlled rotation to the outboard transverse booms as well as power and data transfer across the joint. The Solar Alpha Rotary Joint is composed of two transition sections and an integral, large diameter bearing. Alpha joint bearing design presents a particularly interesting problem because of its large size and need for high reliability, stiffness, and on orbit maintability. The discrete roller bearing developed is a novel refinement to cam follower technology. It offers thermal compensation and ease of on-orbit maintenance that are not found in conventional rolling element bearings. How the bearing design evolved is summarized. Driving requirements are reviewed, alternative concepts assessed, and the selected design is described.
Werfel, F N; Floegel-Delor, U; Riedel, T; Rothfeld, R; Wippich, D; Goebel, B
A 200 mm cylindrical engineering prototype high temperature superconducting (HTS) was designed and fabricated. Measurements show that the 17 kg PM rotor can suspend safely 1000 kg in axial direction and 470 kg radially. The rationale for the bearing performance is to stabilize a 400 kg rotor of a new compact 5 kWh/280 kW flywheel energy storage system (COM - FESS). Measurements of the magnetic bearing force, stiffness and drag-torque are presented indicated the successful targeting a milestone in the HTS bearing technology. The influence of the PM configuration and the YBCO temperature on the bearing performance was experimentally studied, providing high-force or high-stiffness behaviour. The axial stiffness 5 kN/mm at 0.5 mm displacement is the highest value of a HTS bearing we know
Daniel C. Bowden
Full Text Available The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word “earthquake” clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.
Childs, D.W.; Moes, H.; Leeuwen, van H.J.
Bearing impedance vectors are introduced for plain journal bearings which define the bearing reaction force components as a function of the bearing motion. Impedance descriptions are developed directly for the approximate Ocvirk (short) and Sommerfeld (long) bearing solutions. The impedance vector
Wein, A. M.; Kroll, C.
The U.S. Geological Survey partners with organizations and experts to develop multiple hazard scenarios. The HayWired earthquake scenario refers to a rupture of the Hayward fault in the Bay Area of California and addresses the potential chaos related to interconnectedness at many levels: the fault afterslip and aftershocks, interdependencies of lifelines, wired/wireless technology, communities at risk, and ripple effects throughout today's digital economy. The scenario is intended for diverse audiences. HayWired analyses translate earthquake hazards (surface rupture, ground shaking, liquefaction, landslides) into physical engineering and environmental health impacts, and into societal consequences. Damages to life and property and lifeline service disruptions are direct causes of business interruption. Economic models are used to estimate the economic impacts and resilience in the regional economy. The objective of the economic analysis is to inform policy discourse about economic resilience at all three levels of the economy: macro, meso, and micro. Stakeholders include businesses, economic development, and community leaders. Previous scenario analyses indicate the size of an event: large earthquakes and large winter storms are both "big ones" for California. They motivate actions to reduce the losses from fire following earthquake and water supply outages. They show the effect that resilience can have on reducing economic losses. Evaluators find that stakeholders learned the most about the economic consequences.
Kovach, R. L.; Garcia, B.
Evidence for past earthquake damage at Mesoamerican ruins is often overlooked because of the invasive effects of tropical vegetation and is usually not considered as a casual factor when restoration and reconstruction of many archaeological sites are undertaken. Yet the proximity of many ruins to zones of seismic activity would argue otherwise. Clues as to the types of damage which should be soughtwere offered in September 1999 when the M = 7.5 Oaxaca earthquake struck the ruins of Monte Alban, Mexico, where archaeological renovations were underway. More than 20 structures were damaged, 5 of them seriously. Damage features noted were walls out of plumb, fractures in walls, floors, basal platforms and tableros, toppling of columns, and deformation, settling and tumbling of walls. A Modified Mercalli Intensity of VII (ground accelerations 18-34 %b) occurred at the site. Within the diffuse landward extension of the Caribbean plate boundary zone M = 7+ earthquakes occur with repeat times of hundreds of years arguing that many Maya sites were subjected to earthquakes. Damage to re-erected and reinforced stelae, walls, and buildings were witnessed at Quirigua, Guatemala, during an expedition underway when then 1976 M = 7.5 Guatemala earthquake on the Motagua fault struck. Excavations also revealed evidence (domestic pttery vessels and skeleton of a child crushed under fallen walls) of an ancient earthquake occurring about the teim of the demise and abandonment of Quirigua in the late 9th century. Striking evidence for sudden earthquake building collapse at the end of the Mayan Classic Period ~A.D. 889 was found at Benque Viejo (Xunantunich), Belize, located 210 north of Quirigua. It is argued that a M = 7.5 to 7.9 earthquake at the end of the Maya Classic period centered in the vicinity of the Chixoy-Polochic and Motagua fault zones cound have produced the contemporaneous earthquake damage to the above sites. As a consequences this earthquake may have accelerated the
Otani, Yuki; Ando, Takayuki; Atobe, Kaori; Haiden, Akina; Kao, Sheng-Yuan; Saito, Kohei; Shimanuki, Marie; Yoshimoto, Norifumi; Fukunaga, Koichi
Between August 15th and 19th, 2011, eight 5th-year medical students from the Keio University School of Medicine had the opportunity to visit the Peking University School of Medicine and hold a discussion session titled "What is the most effective way to educate people for survival in an acute disaster situation (before the mental health care stage)?" During the session, we discussed the following six points: basic information regarding the Sichuan Earthquake and the East Japan Earthquake, differences in preparedness for earthquakes, government actions, acceptance of medical rescue teams, earthquake-induced secondary effects, and media restrictions. Although comparison of the two earthquakes was not simple, we concluded that three major points should be emphasized to facilitate the most effective course of disaster planning and action. First, all relevant agencies should formulate emergency plans and should supply information regarding the emergency to the general public and health professionals on a normal basis. Second, each citizen should be educated and trained in how to minimize the risks from earthquake-induced secondary effects. Finally, the central government should establish a single headquarters responsible for command, control, and coordination during a natural disaster emergency and should centralize all powers in this single authority. We hope this discussion may be of some use in future natural disasters in China, Japan, and worldwide.
Rollins, John C.; Stein, Ross S.
The Gorda deformation zone, a 50,000 km2 area of diffuse shear and rotation offshore northernmost California, has been the site of 20 M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes on four different fault orientations since 1976, including four M ≥ 7 shocks. This is the highest rate of large earthquakes in the contiguous United States. We calculate that the source faults of six recent M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes had experienced ≥0.6 bar Coulomb stress increases imparted by earthquakes that struck less than 9 months beforehand. Control tests indicate that ≥0.6 bar Coulomb stress interactions between M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes separated by Mw = 7.3 Trinidad earthquake are consistent with the locations of M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes in the Gorda zone until at least 1995, as well as earthquakes on the Mendocino Fault Zone in 1994 and 2000. Coulomb stress changes imparted by the 1980 earthquake are also consistent with its distinct elbow-shaped aftershock pattern. From these observations, we derive generalized static stress interactions among right-lateral, left-lateral and thrust faults near triple junctions.
Full Text Available A series of multimedia monographs concerning the main seismic events that have affected the Italian territory are in the process of being produced for the Documental Integrated Multimedia Project (DIMP started by the Italian National Seismic Survey (NSS. The purpose of the project is to reconstruct the historical record of earthquakes and promote an earthquake public education. Producing the monographs. developed in ARC INFO and working in UNIX. involved designing a special filing and management methodology to integrate heterogeneous information (images, papers, cartographies, etc.. This paper describes the possibilities of a GIS (Geographic Information System in the filing and management of documental information. As an example we present the first monograph on the 1883 Casamicciola earthquake. on the island of Ischia (Campania, Italy. This earthquake is particularly interesting for the following reasons: I historical-cultural context (first destructive seismic event after the unification of Italy; 2 its features (volcanic earthquake; 3 the socioeconomic consequences caused at such an important seaside resort.
B. H. Lavenda
Full Text Available A compound Poisson process is used to derive a new shape parameter which can be used to discriminate between large earthquakes and aftershock sequences. Sample exceedance distributions of large earthquakes are fitted to the Pareto tail and the actual distribution of the maximum to the Fréchet distribution, while the sample distribution of aftershocks are fitted to a Beta distribution and the distribution of the minimum to the Weibull distribution for the smallest value. The transition between initial sample distributions and asymptotic extreme value distributions shows that self-similar power laws are transformed into nonscaling exponential distributions so that neither self-similarity nor the Gutenberg-Richter law can be considered universal. The energy-magnitude transformation converts the Fréchet distribution into the Gumbel distribution, originally proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, and not the Gompertz distribution as in the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz generalization of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Numerical comparison is made with the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz analysis using the same Catalogue of Chinese Earthquakes. An analogy is drawn between large earthquakes and high energy particle physics. A generalized equation of state is used to transform the Gamma density into the order-statistic Fréchet distribution. Earthquaketemperature and volume are determined as functions of the energy. Large insurance claims based on the Pareto distribution, which does not have a right endpoint, show why there cannot be a maximum earthquake energy.
McLaskey, Gregory C.; Kilgore, Brian D.; Lockner, David A.; Beeler, Nicholas M.
We consider whether mm-scale earthquake-like seismic events generated in laboratory experiments are consistent with our understanding of the physics of larger earthquakes. This work focuses on a population of 48 very small shocks that are foreshocks and aftershocks of stick–slip events occurring on a 2.0 m by 0.4 m simulated strike-slip fault cut through a large granite sample. Unlike the larger stick–slip events that rupture the entirety of the simulated fault, the small foreshocks and aftershocks are contained events whose properties are controlled by the rigidity of the surrounding granite blocks rather than characteristics of the experimental apparatus. The large size of the experimental apparatus, high fidelity sensors, rigorous treatment of wave propagation effects, and in situ system calibration separates this study from traditional acoustic emission analyses and allows these sources to be studied with as much rigor as larger natural earthquakes. The tiny events have short (3–6 μs) rise times and are well modeled by simple double couple focal mechanisms that are consistent with left-lateral slip occurring on a mm-scale patch of the precut fault surface. The repeatability of the experiments indicates that they are the result of frictional processes on the simulated fault surface rather than grain crushing or fracture of fresh rock. Our waveform analysis shows no significant differences (other than size) between the M -7 to M -5.5 earthquakes reported here and larger natural earthquakes. Their source characteristics such as stress drop (1–10 MPa) appear to be entirely consistent with earthquake scaling laws derived for larger earthquakes.
Schaefer, Andreas; Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann
Earthquake forecasting and prediction has been one of the key struggles of modern geosciences for the last few decades. A large number of approaches for various time periods have been developed for different locations around the world. A categorization and review of more than 20 of new and old methods was undertaken to develop a state-of-the-art catalogue in forecasting algorithms and methodologies. The different methods have been categorised into time-independent, time-dependent and hybrid methods, from which the last group represents methods where additional data than just historical earthquake statistics have been used. It is necessary to categorize in such a way between pure statistical approaches where historical earthquake data represents the only direct data source and also between algorithms which incorporate further information e.g. spatial data of fault distributions or which incorporate physical models like static triggering to indicate future earthquakes. Furthermore, the location of application has been taken into account to identify methods which can be applied e.g. in active tectonic regions like California or in less active continental regions. In general, most of the methods cover well-known high-seismicity regions like Italy, Japan or California. Many more elements have been reviewed, including the application of established theories and methods e.g. for the determination of the completeness magnitude or whether the modified Omori law was used or not. Target temporal scales are identified as well as the publication history. All these different aspects have been reviewed and catalogued to provide an easy-to-use tool for the development of earthquake forecasting algorithms and to get an overview in the state-of-the-art.
Henson, I. H.; Allen, R. M.; Neuhauser, D. S.
CISN ShakeAlert is a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed and tested by the California Integrated Seismic Network. The system has recently been expanded to support redundant data processing and communications. It now runs on six machines at three locations with ten Apache ActiveMQ message brokers linking together 18 waveform processors, 12 event association processes and 4 Decision Module alert processes. The system ingests waveform data from about 500 stations and generates many thousands of triggers per day, from which a small portion produce earthquake alerts. We have developed interactive web browser system-monitoring tools that display near real time state-of-health and performance information. This includes station availability, trigger statistics, communication and alert latencies. Connections to regional earthquake catalogs provide a rapid assessment of the Decision Module hypocenter accuracy. Historical performance can be evaluated, including statistics for hypocenter and origin time accuracy and alert time latencies for different time periods, magnitude ranges and geographic regions. For the ElarmS event associator, individual earthquake processing histories can be examined, including details of the transmission and processing latencies associated with individual P-wave triggers. Individual station trigger and latency statistics are available. Detailed information about the ElarmS trigger association process for both alerted events and rejected events is also available. The Google Web Toolkit and Map API have been used to develop interactive web pages that link tabular and geographic information. Statistical analysis is provided by the R-Statistics System linked to a PostgreSQL database.
Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.
Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an earthquake. A demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The beta users receive earthquake information very rapidly in real-time and are providing feedback on their experiences of performance and potential uses within their organization. Beta user interactions allow the ShakeAlert team to discern: which alert delivery options are most effective, what changes would make the UserDisplay more useful in a pre-disaster situation, and most importantly, what actions users plan to take for various scenarios. Actions could include: personal safety approaches, such as drop cover, and hold on; automated processes and procedures, such as opening elevator or fire stations doors; or situational awareness. Users are beginning to determine which policy and technological changes may need to be enacted, and funding requirements to implement their automated controls. The use of models and mobile apps are beginning to augment the basic Java desktop applet. Modeling allows beta users to test their early warning responses against various scenarios without having to wait for a real event. Mobile apps are also changing the possible response landscape, providing other avenues for people to receive information. All of these combine to improve business continuity and resiliency.
The cumulative effects of human activities on the grizzly bears in the central Canadian Rockies are not well known. As a result, a project was initiated in 1994 to address the urgent requirement for accurate scientific information on the habitat and populations of grizzly bears in the area of the Banff National Park and Kananaskis Country. This area is probably the most heavily used and developed area where the grizzly still survives. The information gathered throughout the course of this study will be used to better protect and manage the bears and other sensitive carnivores in the region. Using telemetry, researchers are monitoring 25 grizzly bears which were radio-collared in a 22,000 square-kilometer area in the upper Bow Valley drainage of the eastern Alberta slopes. The researchers involved in the project are working with representatives from Husky Oil and Talisman Energy on the sound development of the Moose Mountain oil and gas field without adversely affecting the grizzly bear population. Information collected over seven years indicated that the grizzly bears have few and infrequent offspring. Using the information gathered so far, the location of the Moose Mountain to Jumping Pound pipeline was carefully selected, since the bears recover very slowly from high mortality, and also considering that the food and cover had already been compromised by the high number of roads, trails and other human activities in the area. The status of the population and habitat of the grizzly bear will be assessed upon the conclusion of the field research phase in 2001. Models will be updated using the data obtained during eight years and will assist in the understanding of complex variables that affect grizzly bears.
Artale Harris, Pietro; Marzocchi, Warner; Melini, Daniele
Physics-based earthquake simulators are becoming a popular tool to investigate on the earthquake occurrence process. So far, the development of earthquake simulators is commonly led by the approach "the more physics, the better". However, this approach may hamper the comprehension of the outcomes of the simulator; in fact, within complex models, it may be difficult to understand which physical parameters are the most relevant to the features of the seismic catalog at which we are interested. For this reason, here, we take an opposite approach and analyze the behavior of a purposely simple earthquake simulator applied to a set of California faults. The idea is that a simple simulator may be more informative than a complex one for some specific scientific objectives, because it is more understandable. Our earthquake simulator has three main components: the first one is a realistic tectonic setting, i.e., a fault data set of California; the second is the application of quantitative laws for earthquake generation on each single fault, and the last is the fault interaction modeling through the Coulomb Failure Function. The analysis of this simple simulator shows that: (1) the short-term clustering can be reproduced by a set of faults with an almost periodic behavior, which interact according to a Coulomb failure function model; (2) a long-term behavior showing supercycles of the seismic activity exists only in a markedly deterministic framework, and quickly disappears introducing a small degree of stochasticity on the recurrence of earthquakes on a fault; (3) faults that are strongly coupled in terms of Coulomb failure function model are synchronized in time only in a marked deterministi