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Sample records for bayesian statistical control

  1. Introduction to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2017-01-01

    There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...

  2. Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2011-01-01

    A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic

  3. Bayesian statistics an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Peter M

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel

  4. The Bayesian Score Statistic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleibergen, F.R.; Kleijn, R.; Paap, R.

    2000-01-01

    We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative. Unlike

  5. Statistics: a Bayesian perspective

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berry, Donald A

    1996-01-01

    ...: it is the only introductory textbook based on Bayesian ideas, it combines concepts and methods, it presents statistics as a means of integrating data into the significant process, it develops ideas...

  6. Bayesian statistical inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno De Finetti

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.

  7. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  8. Application of classical versus bayesian statistical control charts to on-line radiological monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeVol, T.A.; Gohres, A.A.; Williams, C.L.

    2009-01-01

    False positive and false negative incidence rates of radiological monitoring data from classical and Bayesian statistical process control chart techniques are compared. The on-line monitoring for illicit radioactive material with no false positives or false negatives is the goal of homeland security monitoring, but is unrealistic. However, statistical fluctuations in the detector signal, short detection times, large source to detector distances, and shielding effects make distinguishing between a radiation source and natural background particularly difficult. Experimental time series data were collected using a 1' x 1' LaCl 3 (Ce) based scintillation detector (Scionix, Orlando, FL) under various simulated conditions. Experimental parameters include radionuclide (gamma-ray) energy, activity, density thickness (source to detector distance and shielding), time, and temperature. All statistical algorithms were developed using MATLAB TM . The Shewhart (3-σ) control chart and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart are the classical procedures adopted, while the Bayesian technique is the Shiryayev-Roberts (S-R) control chart. The Shiryayev-Roberts method was the best method for controlling the number of false positive detects, followed by the CUSUM method. However, The Shiryayev-Roberts method, used without modification, resulted in one of the highest false negative incidence rates independent of the signal strength. Modification of The Shiryayev-Roberts statistical analysis method reduced the number of false negatives, but resulted in an increase in the false positive incidence rate. (author)

  9. Introduction to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Koch, Karl-Rudolf

    2007-01-01

    This book presents Bayes' theorem, the estimation of unknown parameters, the determination of confidence regions and the derivation of tests of hypotheses for the unknown parameters. It does so in a simple manner that is easy to comprehend. The book compares traditional and Bayesian methods with the rules of probability presented in a logical way allowing an intuitive understanding of random variables and their probability distributions to be formed.

  10. How to practise Bayesian statistics outside the Bayesian church: What philosophy for Bayesian statistical modelling?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.

    2013-01-01

    Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science

  11. 12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo

    2015-01-01

    Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...

  12. Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

  13. Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists

    CERN Document Server

    Hobbs, N Thompson

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili

  14. Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

    2013-02-01

    A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

  15. Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Box, George E P

    2011-01-01

    The Wiley Classics Library consists of selected books that have become recognized classics in their respective fields. With these new unabridged and inexpensive editions, Wiley hopes to extend the life of these important works by making them available to future generations of mathematicians and scientists. Currently available in the Series: T. W. Anderson The Statistical Analysis of Time Series T. S. Arthanari & Yadolah Dodge Mathematical Programming in Statistics Emil Artin Geometric Algebra Norman T. J. Bailey The Elements of Stochastic Processes with Applications to the Natural Sciences Rob

  16. Bayesian approach to inverse statistical mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habeck, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Inverse statistical mechanics aims to determine particle interactions from ensemble properties. This article looks at this inverse problem from a Bayesian perspective and discusses several statistical estimators to solve it. In addition, a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed that draws the interaction parameters from their posterior probability distribution. The posterior probability involves an intractable partition function that is estimated along with the interactions. The method is illustrated for inverse problems of varying complexity, including the estimation of a temperature, the inverse Ising problem, maximum entropy fitting, and the reconstruction of molecular interaction potentials.

  17. Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutihac, R.; Cicuttin, A.; Cerdeira, A.; Stanciulescu, C.

    1998-12-01

    Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)

  18. An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly; Clifton, James; van de Schoot, A.G.J.; Tiemensma, Jitske

    2017-01-01

    The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of Health Psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation

  19. Applying Bayesian Statistics to Educational Evaluation. Theoretical Paper No. 62.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brumet, Michael E.

    Bayesian statistical inference is unfamiliar to many educational evaluators. While the classical model is useful in educational research, it is not as useful in evaluation because of the need to identify solutions to practical problems based on a wide spectrum of information. The reason Bayesian analysis is effective for decision making is that it…

  20. The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

    2018-02-01

    In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.

  1. An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly M; Clifton, James P; van de Schoot, Rens; Tiemensma, Jitske

    2017-09-01

    The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of health psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation models, latent growth curve (and mixture) models, and hierarchical linear models. Likewise, Bayesian methods can be used with small sample sizes since they do not rely on large sample theory. In this article, we discuss several important components of Bayesian statistics as they relate to health-based inquiries. We discuss the incorporation and impact of prior knowledge into the estimation process and the different components of the analysis that should be reported in an article. We present an example implementing Bayesian estimation in the context of blood pressure changes after participants experienced an acute stressor. We conclude with final thoughts on the implementation of Bayesian statistics in health psychology, including suggestions for reviewing Bayesian manuscripts and grant proposals. We have also included an extensive amount of online supplementary material to complement the content presented here, including Bayesian examples using many different software programmes and an extensive sensitivity analysis examining the impact of priors.

  2. Bayesian Information Criterion as an Alternative way of Statistical Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadejda Yu. Gubanova

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The article treats Bayesian information criterion as an alternative to traditional methods of statistical inference, based on NHST. The comparison of ANOVA and BIC results for psychological experiment is discussed.

  3. Daniel Goodman’s empirical approach to Bayesian statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrodette, Tim; Ward, Eric; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Schwarz, Lisa K.; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Wade, Paul; Himes Boor, Gina

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian statistics, in contrast to classical statistics, uses probability to represent uncertainty about the state of knowledge. Bayesian statistics has often been associated with the idea that knowledge is subjective and that a probability distribution represents a personal degree of belief. Dr. Daniel Goodman considered this viewpoint problematic for issues of public policy. He sought to ground his Bayesian approach in data, and advocated the construction of a prior as an empirical histogram of “similar” cases. In this way, the posterior distribution that results from a Bayesian analysis combined comparable previous data with case-specific current data, using Bayes’ formula. Goodman championed such a data-based approach, but he acknowledged that it was difficult in practice. If based on a true representation of our knowledge and uncertainty, Goodman argued that risk assessment and decision-making could be an exact science, despite the uncertainties. In his view, Bayesian statistics is a critical component of this science because a Bayesian analysis produces the probabilities of future outcomes. Indeed, Goodman maintained that the Bayesian machinery, following the rules of conditional probability, offered the best legitimate inference from available data. We give an example of an informative prior in a recent study of Steller sea lion spatial use patterns in Alaska.

  4. The application of bayesian statistic in data fit processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guan Xingyin; Li Zhenfu; Song Zhaohui

    2010-01-01

    The rationality and disadvantage of least squares fitting that is usually used in data processing is analyzed, and the theory and commonly method that Bayesian statistic is applied in data processing is shown in detail. As it is proved in analysis, Bayesian approach avoid the limitative hypothesis that least squares fitting has in data processing, and the result has traits that it is more scientific and more easily understood, may replace the least squares fitting to apply in data processing. (authors)

  5. Introduction to applied Bayesian statistics and estimation for social scientists

    CERN Document Server

    Lynch, Scott M

    2007-01-01

    ""Introduction to Applied Bayesian Statistics and Estimation for Social Scientists"" covers the complete process of Bayesian statistical analysis in great detail from the development of a model through the process of making statistical inference. The key feature of this book is that it covers models that are most commonly used in social science research - including the linear regression model, generalized linear models, hierarchical models, and multivariate regression models - and it thoroughly develops each real-data example in painstaking detail.The first part of the book provides a detailed

  6. Bayesian statistics in radionuclide metrology: measurement of a decaying source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bochud, F. O.; Bailat, C.J.; Laedermann, J.P.

    2007-01-01

    The most intuitive way of defining a probability is perhaps through the frequency at which it appears when a large number of trials are realized in identical conditions. The probability derived from the obtained histogram characterizes the so-called frequentist or conventional statistical approach. In this sense, probability is defined as a physical property of the observed system. By contrast, in Bayesian statistics, a probability is not a physical property or a directly observable quantity, but a degree of belief or an element of inference. The goal of this paper is to show how Bayesian statistics can be used in radionuclide metrology and what its advantages and disadvantages are compared with conventional statistics. This is performed through the example of an yttrium-90 source typically encountered in environmental surveillance measurement. Because of the very low activity of this kind of source and the small half-life of the radionuclide, this measurement takes several days, during which the source decays significantly. Several methods are proposed to compute simultaneously the number of unstable nuclei at a given reference time, the decay constant and the background. Asymptotically, all approaches give the same result. However, Bayesian statistics produces coherent estimates and confidence intervals in a much smaller number of measurements. Apart from the conceptual understanding of statistics, the main difficulty that could deter radionuclide metrologists from using Bayesian statistics is the complexity of the computation. (authors)

  7. Nonparametric Bayesian predictive distributions for future order statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard A. Johnson; James W. Evans; David W. Green

    1999-01-01

    We derive the predictive distribution for a specified order statistic, determined from a future random sample, under a Dirichlet process prior. Two variants of the approach are treated and some limiting cases studied. A practical application to monitoring the strength of lumber is discussed including choices of prior expectation and comparisons made to a Bayesian...

  8. Practical Statistics for LHC Physicists: Bayesian Inference (3/3)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2015-01-01

    These lectures cover those principles and practices of statistics that are most relevant for work at the LHC. The first lecture discusses the basic ideas of descriptive statistics, probability and likelihood. The second lecture covers the key ideas in the frequentist approach, including confidence limits, profile likelihoods, p-values, and hypothesis testing. The third lecture covers inference in the Bayesian approach. Throughout, real-world examples will be used to illustrate the practical application of the ideas. No previous knowledge is assumed.

  9. Statistical assignment of DNA sequences using Bayesian phylogenetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Terkelsen, Kasper Munch; Boomsma, Wouter Krogh; Huelsenbeck, John P.

    2008-01-01

    We provide a new automated statistical method for DNA barcoding based on a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. The method is based on automated database sequence retrieval, alignment, and phylogenetic analysis using a custom-built program for Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. We show on real data...... that the method outperforms Blast searches as a measure of confidence and can help eliminate 80% of all false assignment based on best Blast hit. However, the most important advance of the method is that it provides statistically meaningful measures of confidence. We apply the method to a re......-analysis of previously published ancient DNA data and show that, with high statistical confidence, most of the published sequences are in fact of Neanderthal origin. However, there are several cases of chimeric sequences that are comprised of a combination of both Neanderthal and modern human DNA....

  10. To P or Not to P: Backing Bayesian Statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchinsky, Farrel J; Chadha, Neil K

    2017-12-01

    In biomedical research, it is imperative to differentiate chance variation from truth before we generalize what we see in a sample of subjects to the wider population. For decades, we have relied on null hypothesis significance testing, where we calculate P values for our data to decide whether to reject a null hypothesis. This methodology is subject to substantial misinterpretation and errant conclusions. Instead of working backward by calculating the probability of our data if the null hypothesis were true, Bayesian statistics allow us instead to work forward, calculating the probability of our hypothesis given the available data. This methodology gives us a mathematical means of incorporating our "prior probabilities" from previous study data (if any) to produce new "posterior probabilities." Bayesian statistics tell us how confidently we should believe what we believe. It is time to embrace and encourage their use in our otolaryngology research.

  11. A Bayesian statistical method for particle identification in shower counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takashimizu, N.; Kimura, A.; Shibata, A.; Sasaki, T.

    2004-01-01

    We report an attempt on identifying particles using a Bayesian statistical method. We have developed the mathematical model and software for this purpose. We tried to identify electrons and charged pions in shower counters using this method. We designed an ideal shower counter and studied the efficiency of identification using Monte Carlo simulation based on Geant4. Without having any other information, e.g. charges of particles which are given by tracking detectors, we have achieved 95% identifications of both particles

  12. Improving Transparency and Replication in Bayesian Statistics : The WAMBS-Checklist

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Depaoli, Sarah; van de Schoot, Rens

    2017-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are slowly creeping into all fields of science and are becoming ever more popular in applied research. Although it is very attractive to use Bayesian statistics, our personal experience has led us to believe that naively applying Bayesian methods can be dangerous for at

  13. Bayesian statistic methods and theri application in probabilistic simulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Iannazzo

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian statistic methods are facing a rapidly growing level of interest and acceptance in the field of health economics. The reasons of this success are probably to be found on the theoretical fundaments of the discipline that make these techniques more appealing to decision analysis. To this point should be added the modern IT progress that has developed different flexible and powerful statistical software framework. Among them probably one of the most noticeably is the BUGS language project and its standalone application for MS Windows WinBUGS. Scope of this paper is to introduce the subject and to show some interesting applications of WinBUGS in developing complex economical models based on Markov chains. The advantages of this approach reside on the elegance of the code produced and in its capability to easily develop probabilistic simulations. Moreover an example of the integration of bayesian inference models in a Markov model is shown. This last feature let the analyst conduce statistical analyses on the available sources of evidence and exploit them directly as inputs in the economic model.

  14. Bayesian statistical evaluation of peak area measurements in gamma spectrometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, L.; Turkman, A.; Paulino, C.D.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze results from determinations of peak areas for a radioactive source containing several radionuclides. The statistical analysis was performed using Bayesian methods based on the usual Poisson model for observed counts. This model does not appear to be a very good assumption for the counting system under investigation, even though it is not questioned as a whole by the inferential procedures adopted. We conclude that, in order to avoid incorrect inferences on relevant quantities, one must proceed to a further study that allows us to include missing influence parameters and to select a model explaining the observed data much better.

  15. Bayesians versus frequentists a philosophical debate on statistical reasoning

    CERN Document Server

    Vallverdú, Jordi

    2016-01-01

    This book analyzes the origins of statistical thinking as well as its related philosophical questions, such as causality, determinism or chance. Bayesian and frequentist approaches are subjected to a historical, cognitive and epistemological analysis, making it possible to not only compare the two competing theories, but to also find a potential solution. The work pursues a naturalistic approach, proceeding from the existence of numerosity in natural environments to the existence of contemporary formulas and methodologies to heuristic pragmatism, a concept introduced in the book’s final section. This monograph will be of interest to philosophers and historians of science and students in related fields. Despite the mathematical nature of the topic, no statistical background is required, making the book a valuable read for anyone interested in the history of statistics and human cognition.

  16. Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Tang, Niansheng

    2014-04-01

    Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures.

  17. Bayesian models based on test statistics for multiple hypothesis testing problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Yuan; Lu, Yiling; Mills, Gordon B

    2008-04-01

    We propose a Bayesian method for the problem of multiple hypothesis testing that is routinely encountered in bioinformatics research, such as the differential gene expression analysis. Our algorithm is based on modeling the distributions of test statistics under both null and alternative hypotheses. We substantially reduce the complexity of the process of defining posterior model probabilities by modeling the test statistics directly instead of modeling the full data. Computationally, we apply a Bayesian FDR approach to control the number of rejections of null hypotheses. To check if our model assumptions for the test statistics are valid for various bioinformatics experiments, we also propose a simple graphical model-assessment tool. Using extensive simulations, we demonstrate the performance of our models and the utility of the model-assessment tool. In the end, we apply the proposed methodology to an siRNA screening and a gene expression experiment.

  18. Possible Solution to Publication Bias Through Bayesian Statistics, Including Proper Null Hypothesis Testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Konijn, Elly A.; van de Schoot, Rens; Winter, Sonja D.; Ferguson, Christopher J.

    2015-01-01

    The present paper argues that an important cause of publication bias resides in traditional frequentist statistics forcing binary decisions. An alternative approach through Bayesian statistics provides various degrees of support for any hypothesis allowing balanced decisions and proper null

  19. Systematic search of Bayesian statistics in the field of psychotraumatology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Schoot, Rens; Schalken, Naomi; Olff, Miranda

    2017-01-01

    In many different disciplines there is a recent increase in interest of Bayesian analysis. Bayesian methods implement Bayes' theorem, which states that prior beliefs are updated with data, and this process produces updated beliefs about model parameters. The prior is based on how much information we

  20. Bayesian Statistics: Concepts and Applications in Animal Breeding – A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lsxmikant-Sambhaji Kokate

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Statistics uses two major approaches- conventional (or frequentist and Bayesian approach. Bayesian approach provides a complete paradigm for both statistical inference and decision making under uncertainty. Bayesian methods solve many of the difficulties faced by conventional statistical methods, and extend the applicability of statistical methods. It exploits the use of probabilistic models to formulate scientific problems. To use Bayesian statistics, there is computational difficulty and secondly, Bayesian methods require specifying prior probability distributions. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC methods were applied to overcome the computational difficulty, and interest in Bayesian methods was renewed. In Bayesian statistics, Bayesian structural equation model (SEM is used. It provides a powerful and flexible approach for studying quantitative traits for wide spectrum problems and thus it has no operational difficulties, with the exception of some complex cases. In this method, the problems are solved at ease, and the statisticians feel it comfortable with the particular way of expressing the results and employing the software available to analyze a large variety of problems.

  1. Online Dectection and Modeling of Safety Boundaries for Aerospace Application Using Bayesian Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yuning

    2015-01-01

    The behavior of complex aerospace systems is governed by numerous parameters. For safety analysis it is important to understand how the system behaves with respect to these parameter values. In particular, understanding the boundaries between safe and unsafe regions is of major importance. In this paper, we describe a hierarchical Bayesian statistical modeling approach for the online detection and characterization of such boundaries. Our method for classification with active learning uses a particle filter-based model and a boundary-aware metric for best performance. From a library of candidate shapes incorporated with domain expert knowledge, the location and parameters of the boundaries are estimated using advanced Bayesian modeling techniques. The results of our boundary analysis are then provided in a form understandable by the domain expert. We illustrate our approach using a simulation model of a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system, as well as a system for the detection of separation violations in the terminal airspace.

  2. Applying Bayesian statistics to the study of psychological trauma: A suggestion for future research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yalch, Matthew M

    2016-03-01

    Several contemporary researchers have noted the virtues of Bayesian methods of data analysis. Although debates continue about whether conventional or Bayesian statistics is the "better" approach for researchers in general, there are reasons why Bayesian methods may be well suited to the study of psychological trauma in particular. This article describes how Bayesian statistics offers practical solutions to the problems of data non-normality, small sample size, and missing data common in research on psychological trauma. After a discussion of these problems and the effects they have on trauma research, this article explains the basic philosophical and statistical foundations of Bayesian statistics and how it provides solutions to these problems using an applied example. Results of the literature review and the accompanying example indicates the utility of Bayesian statistics in addressing problems common in trauma research. Bayesian statistics provides a set of methodological tools and a broader philosophical framework that is useful for trauma researchers. Methodological resources are also provided so that interested readers can learn more. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Rationalizing method of replacement intervals by using Bayesian statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasai, Masao; Notoya, Junichi; Kusakari, Yoshiyuki

    2007-01-01

    This study represents the formulations for rationalizing the replacement intervals of equipments and/or parts taking into account the probability density functions (PDF) of the parameters of failure distribution functions (FDF) and compares the optimized intervals by our formulations with those by conventional formulations which uses only representative values of the parameters of FDF instead of using these PDFs. The failure data are generated by Monte Carlo simulations since the real failure data can not be available for us. The PDF of PDF parameters are obtained by Bayesian method and the representative values are obtained by likelihood estimation and Bayesian method. We found that the method using PDF by Bayesian method brings longer replacement intervals than one using the representative of the parameters. (author)

  4. Bayesian nonparametric adaptive control using Gaussian processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhary, Girish; Kingravi, Hassan A; How, Jonathan P; Vela, Patricio A

    2015-03-01

    Most current model reference adaptive control (MRAC) methods rely on parametric adaptive elements, in which the number of parameters of the adaptive element are fixed a priori, often through expert judgment. An example of such an adaptive element is radial basis function networks (RBFNs), with RBF centers preallocated based on the expected operating domain. If the system operates outside of the expected operating domain, this adaptive element can become noneffective in capturing and canceling the uncertainty, thus rendering the adaptive controller only semiglobal in nature. This paper investigates a Gaussian process-based Bayesian MRAC architecture (GP-MRAC), which leverages the power and flexibility of GP Bayesian nonparametric models of uncertainty. The GP-MRAC does not require the centers to be preallocated, can inherently handle measurement noise, and enables MRAC to handle a broader set of uncertainties, including those that are defined as distributions over functions. We use stochastic stability arguments to show that GP-MRAC guarantees good closed-loop performance with no prior domain knowledge of the uncertainty. Online implementable GP inference methods are compared in numerical simulations against RBFN-MRAC with preallocated centers and are shown to provide better tracking and improved long-term learning.

  5. Multivariate Statistical Process Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kulahci, Murat

    2013-01-01

    As sensor and computer technology continues to improve, it becomes a normal occurrence that we confront with high dimensional data sets. As in many areas of industrial statistics, this brings forth various challenges in statistical process control (SPC) and monitoring for which the aim...... is to identify “out-of-control” state of a process using control charts in order to reduce the excessive variation caused by so-called assignable causes. In practice, the most common method of monitoring multivariate data is through a statistic akin to the Hotelling’s T2. For high dimensional data with excessive...... amount of cross correlation, practitioners are often recommended to use latent structures methods such as Principal Component Analysis to summarize the data in only a few linear combinations of the original variables that capture most of the variation in the data. Applications of these control charts...

  6. Statistical Engine Knock Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stotsky, Alexander A.

    2008-01-01

    A new statistical concept of the knock control of a spark ignition automotive engine is proposed . The control aim is associated with the statistical hy pothesis test which compares the threshold value to the average value of the max imal amplitud e of the knock sensor signal at a given freq uency....... C ontrol algorithm which is used for minimization of the regulation error realizes a simple count-up-count-d own logic. A new ad aptation algorithm for the knock d etection threshold is also d eveloped . C onfi d ence interval method is used as the b asis for ad aptation. A simple statistical mod el...... which includ es generation of the amplitud e signals, a threshold value d etermination and a knock sound mod el is d eveloped for evaluation of the control concept....

  7. Enhancing pediatric clinical trial feasibility through the use of Bayesian statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huff, Robin A; Maca, Jeff D; Puri, Mala; Seltzer, Earl W

    2017-11-01

    BackgroundPediatric clinical trials commonly experience recruitment challenges including limited number of patients and investigators, inclusion/exclusion criteria that further reduce the patient pool, and a competitive research landscape created by pediatric regulatory commitments. To overcome these challenges, innovative approaches are needed.MethodsThis article explores the use of Bayesian statistics to improve pediatric trial feasibility, using pediatric Type-2 diabetes as an example. Data for six therapies approved for adults were used to perform simulations to determine the impact on pediatric trial size.ResultsWhen the number of adult patients contributing to the simulation was assumed to be the same as the number of patients to be enrolled in the pediatric trial, the pediatric trial size was reduced by 75-78% when compared with a frequentist statistical approach, but was associated with a 34-45% false-positive rate. In subsequent simulations, greater control was exerted over the false-positive rate by decreasing the contribution of the adult data. A 30-33% reduction in trial size was achieved when false-positives were held to less than 10%.ConclusionReducing the trial size through the use of Bayesian statistics would facilitate completion of pediatric trials, enabling drugs to be labeled appropriately for children.

  8. Bayesian selective response-adaptive design using the historical control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Mi-Ok; Harun, Nusrat; Liu, Chunyan; Khoury, Jane C; Broderick, Joseph P

    2018-06-13

    High quality historical control data, if incorporated, may reduce sample size, trial cost, and duration. A too optimistic use of the data, however, may result in bias under prior-data conflict. Motivated by well-publicized two-arm comparative trials in stroke, we propose a Bayesian design that both adaptively incorporates historical control data and selectively adapt the treatment allocation ratios within an ongoing trial responsively to the relative treatment effects. The proposed design differs from existing designs that borrow from historical controls. As opposed to reducing the number of subjects assigned to the control arm blindly, this design does so adaptively to the relative treatment effects only if evaluation of cumulated current trial data combined with the historical control suggests the superiority of the intervention arm. We used the effective historical sample size approach to quantify borrowed information on the control arm and modified the treatment allocation rules of the doubly adaptive biased coin design to incorporate the quantity. The modified allocation rules were then implemented under the Bayesian framework with commensurate priors addressing prior-data conflict. Trials were also more frequently concluded earlier in line with the underlying truth, reducing trial cost, and duration and yielded parameter estimates with smaller standard errors. © 2018 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Embracing Uncertainty: The Interface of Bayesian Statistics and Cognitive Psychology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith L. Anderson

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available Ecologists working in conservation and resource management are discovering the importance of using Bayesian analytic methods to deal explicitly with uncertainty in data analyses and decision making. However, Bayesian procedures require, as inputs and outputs, an idea that is problematic for the human brain: the probability of a hypothesis ("single-event probability". I describe several cognitive concepts closely related to single-event probabilities, and discuss how their interchangeability in the human mind results in "cognitive illusions," apparent deficits in reasoning about uncertainty. Each cognitive illusion implies specific possible pitfalls for the use of single-event probabilities in ecology and resource management. I then discuss recent research in cognitive psychology showing that simple tactics of communication, suggested by an evolutionary perspective on human cognition, help people to process uncertain information more effectively as they read and talk about probabilities. In addition, I suggest that carefully considered standards for methodology and conventions for presentation may also make Bayesian analyses easier to understand.

  10. Optimization of inspection and replacement period by using Bayesian statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasai, Masao; Watanabe, Yasushi; Kusakari, Yoshiyuki; Notoya, Junichi

    2006-01-01

    This study describes the formulations to optimize the time interval of inspections and/or replacements of equipment/parts taking into account the probability density functions (PDF) for failure rates and parameters of failure distribution functions (FDF) and evaluates the optimized results of these time intervals using our formulations by comparing with those using only representative values of failure rates and the parameters of FDF instead of using these PDFs. The PDFs are obtained with Bayesian method and the representative values are obtained with likelihood estimation method. However, any significant difference is not observed between both optimized results within our preliminary calculations. (author)

  11. Statistical Bayesian method for reliability evaluation based on ADT data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Dawei; Wang, Lizhi; Sun, Yusheng; Wang, Xiaohong

    2018-05-01

    Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) is frequently conducted in the laboratory to predict the products’ reliability under normal operating conditions. Two kinds of methods, degradation path models and stochastic process models, are utilized to analyze degradation data and the latter one is the most popular method. However, some limitations like imprecise solution process and estimation result of degradation ratio still exist, which may affect the accuracy of the acceleration model and the extrapolation value. Moreover, the conducted solution of this problem, Bayesian method, lose key information when unifying the degradation data. In this paper, a new data processing and parameter inference method based on Bayesian method is proposed to handle degradation data and solve the problems above. First, Wiener process and acceleration model is chosen; Second, the initial values of degradation model and parameters of prior and posterior distribution under each level is calculated with updating and iteration of estimation values; Third, the lifetime and reliability values are estimated on the basis of the estimation parameters; Finally, a case study is provided to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. The results illustrate that the proposed method is quite effective and accuracy in estimating the lifetime and reliability of a product.

  12. Bayesian statistics for the calibration of the LISA Pathfinder experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armano, M; Freschi, M; Audley, H; Born, M; Danzmann, K; Diepholz, I; Auger, G; Binetruy, P; Bortoluzzi, D; Brandt, N; Fitzsimons, E; Bursi, A; Caleno, M; Cavalleri, A; Cesarini, A; Dolesi, R; Ferroni, V; Cruise, M; Dunbar, N; Ferraioli, L

    2015-01-01

    The main goal of LISA Pathfinder (LPF) mission is to estimate the acceleration noise models of the overall LISA Technology Package (LTP) experiment on-board. This will be of crucial importance for the future space-based Gravitational-Wave (GW) detectors, like eLISA. Here, we present the Bayesian analysis framework to process the planned system identification experiments designed for that purpose. In particular, we focus on the analysis strategies to predict the accuracy of the parameters that describe the system in all degrees of freedom. The data sets were generated during the latest operational simulations organised by the data analysis team and this work is part of the LTPDA Matlab toolbox. (paper)

  13. Targeted search for continuous gravitational waves: Bayesian versus maximum-likelihood statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prix, Reinhard; Krishnan, Badri

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the Bayesian framework for detection of continuous gravitational waves (GWs) in the context of targeted searches, where the phase evolution of the GW signal is assumed to be known, while the four amplitude parameters are unknown. We show that the orthodox maximum-likelihood statistic (known as F-statistic) can be rediscovered as a Bayes factor with an unphysical prior in amplitude parameter space. We introduce an alternative detection statistic ('B-statistic') using the Bayes factor with a more natural amplitude prior, namely an isotropic probability distribution for the orientation of GW sources. Monte Carlo simulations of targeted searches show that the resulting Bayesian B-statistic is more powerful in the Neyman-Pearson sense (i.e., has a higher expected detection probability at equal false-alarm probability) than the frequentist F-statistic.

  14. A Hierarchical Multivariate Bayesian Approach to Ensemble Model output Statistics in Atmospheric Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-01

    application of statistical inference. Even when human forecasters leverage their professional experience, which is often gained through long periods of... application throughout statistics and Bayesian data analysis. The multivariate form of 2( , )  (e.g., Figure 12) is similarly analytically...data (i.e., no systematic manipulations with analytical functions), it is common in the statistical literature to apply mathematical transformations

  15. Statistical detection of EEG synchrony using empirical bayesian inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Archana K Singh

    Full Text Available There is growing interest in understanding how the brain utilizes synchronized oscillatory activity to integrate information across functionally connected regions. Computing phase-locking values (PLV between EEG signals is a popular method for quantifying such synchronizations and elucidating their role in cognitive tasks. However, high-dimensionality in PLV data incurs a serious multiple testing problem. Standard multiple testing methods in neuroimaging research (e.g., false discovery rate, FDR suffer severe loss of power, because they fail to exploit complex dependence structure between hypotheses that vary in spectral, temporal and spatial dimension. Previously, we showed that a hierarchical FDR and optimal discovery procedures could be effectively applied for PLV analysis to provide better power than FDR. In this article, we revisit the multiple comparison problem from a new Empirical Bayes perspective and propose the application of the local FDR method (locFDR; Efron, 2001 for PLV synchrony analysis to compute FDR as a posterior probability that an observed statistic belongs to a null hypothesis. We demonstrate the application of Efron's Empirical Bayes approach for PLV synchrony analysis for the first time. We use simulations to validate the specificity and sensitivity of locFDR and a real EEG dataset from a visual search study for experimental validation. We also compare locFDR with hierarchical FDR and optimal discovery procedures in both simulation and experimental analyses. Our simulation results showed that the locFDR can effectively control false positives without compromising on the power of PLV synchrony inference. Our results from the application locFDR on experiment data detected more significant discoveries than our previously proposed methods whereas the standard FDR method failed to detect any significant discoveries.

  16. Statistical detection of EEG synchrony using empirical bayesian inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Archana K; Asoh, Hideki; Takeda, Yuji; Phillips, Steven

    2015-01-01

    There is growing interest in understanding how the brain utilizes synchronized oscillatory activity to integrate information across functionally connected regions. Computing phase-locking values (PLV) between EEG signals is a popular method for quantifying such synchronizations and elucidating their role in cognitive tasks. However, high-dimensionality in PLV data incurs a serious multiple testing problem. Standard multiple testing methods in neuroimaging research (e.g., false discovery rate, FDR) suffer severe loss of power, because they fail to exploit complex dependence structure between hypotheses that vary in spectral, temporal and spatial dimension. Previously, we showed that a hierarchical FDR and optimal discovery procedures could be effectively applied for PLV analysis to provide better power than FDR. In this article, we revisit the multiple comparison problem from a new Empirical Bayes perspective and propose the application of the local FDR method (locFDR; Efron, 2001) for PLV synchrony analysis to compute FDR as a posterior probability that an observed statistic belongs to a null hypothesis. We demonstrate the application of Efron's Empirical Bayes approach for PLV synchrony analysis for the first time. We use simulations to validate the specificity and sensitivity of locFDR and a real EEG dataset from a visual search study for experimental validation. We also compare locFDR with hierarchical FDR and optimal discovery procedures in both simulation and experimental analyses. Our simulation results showed that the locFDR can effectively control false positives without compromising on the power of PLV synchrony inference. Our results from the application locFDR on experiment data detected more significant discoveries than our previously proposed methods whereas the standard FDR method failed to detect any significant discoveries.

  17. Use of SAMC for Bayesian analysis of statistical models with intractable normalizing constants

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Ick Hoon

    2014-03-01

    Statistical inference for the models with intractable normalizing constants has attracted much attention. During the past two decades, various approximation- or simulation-based methods have been proposed for the problem, such as the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method and the auxiliary variable Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm specifically addresses this problem: It works by sampling from a sequence of approximate distributions with their average converging to the target posterior distribution, where the approximate distributions can be achieved using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm. A strong law of large numbers is established for the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo estimator under mild conditions. Compared to the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method, the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm is more robust to the initial guess of model parameters. Compared to the auxiliary variable MCMC methods, the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm avoids the requirement for perfect samples, and thus can be applied to many models for which perfect sampling is not available or very expensive. The Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm also provides a general framework for approximate Bayesian analysis. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwag, Shinyoung; Gupta, Abhinav

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwag, Shinyoung [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States); Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Gupta, Abhinav, E-mail: agupta1@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

    2017-04-15

    Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

  20. Bayesian Statistics in Educational Research: A Look at the Current State of Affairs

    Science.gov (United States)

    König, Christoph; van de Schoot, Rens

    2018-01-01

    The ability of a scientific discipline to build cumulative knowledge depends on its predominant method of data analysis. A steady accumulation of knowledge requires approaches which allow researchers to consider results from comparable prior research. Bayesian statistics is especially relevant for establishing a cumulative scientific discipline,…

  1. Bayesian statistical analysis of censored data in geotechnical engineering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Tarp-Johansen, Niels Jacob; Denver, Hans

    2000-01-01

    The geotechnical engineer is often faced with the problem ofhow to assess the statistical properties of a soil parameter on the basis ofa sample measured in-situ or in the laboratory with the defect that somevalues have been replaced by interval bounds because the corresponding soilparameter values...

  2. Bayesian Nonparametric Statistical Inference for Shock Models and Wear Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    also note that the results in Section 2 do not depend on the support of F .) This shock model have been studied by Esary, Marshall and Proschan (1973...Barlow and Proschan (1975), among others. The analogy of the shock model in risk and acturial analysis has been given by BUhlmann (1970, Chapter 2... Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 4, pp. 894-906. Billingsley, P. (1968), CONVERGENCE OF PROBABILITY MEASURES, John Wiley, New York. BUhlmann, H. (1970

  3. Applied Bayesian statistical studies in biology and medicine

    CERN Document Server

    D’Amore, G; Scalfari, F

    2004-01-01

    It was written on another occasion· that "It is apparent that the scientific culture, if one means production of scientific papers, is growing exponentially, and chaotically, in almost every field of investigation". The biomedical sciences sensu lato and mathematical statistics are no exceptions. One might say then, and with good reason, that another collection of bio­ statistical papers would only add to the overflow and cause even more confusion. Nevertheless, this book may be greeted with some interest if we state that most of the papers in it are the result of a collaboration between biologists and statisticians, and partly the product of the Summer School th "Statistical Inference in Human Biology" which reaches its 10 edition in 2003 (information about the School can be obtained at the Web site http://www2. stat. unibo. itleventilSito%20scuolalindex. htm). is common experience - and not only This is rather important. Indeed, it in Italy - that encounters between statisticians and researchers are spora...

  4. Bayesian inference – a way to combine statistical data and semantic analysis meaningfully

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eila Lindfors

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This article focuses on presenting the possibilities of Bayesian modelling (Finite Mixture Modelling in the semantic analysis of statistically modelled data. The probability of a hypothesis in relation to the data available is an important question in inductive reasoning. Bayesian modelling allows the researcher to use many models at a time and provides tools to evaluate the goodness of different models. The researcher should always be aware that there is no such thing as the exact probability of an exact event. This is the reason for using probabilistic models. Each model presents a different perspective on the phenomenon in focus, and the researcher has to choose the most probable model with a view to previous research and the knowledge available.The idea of Bayesian modelling is illustrated here by presenting two different sets of data, one from craft science research (n=167 and the other (n=63 from educational research (Lindfors, 2007, 2002. The principles of how to build models and how to combine different profiles are described in the light of the research mentioned.Bayesian modelling is an analysis based on calculating probabilities in relation to a specific set of quantitative data. It is a tool for handling data and interpreting it semantically. The reliability of the analysis arises from an argumentation of which model can be selected from the model space as the basis for an interpretation, and on which arguments.Keywords: method, sloyd, Bayesian modelling, student teachersURN:NBN:no-29959

  5. Frontiers in statistical quality control

    CERN Document Server

    Wilrich, Peter-Theodor

    2004-01-01

    This volume treats the four main categories of Statistical Quality Control: General SQC Methodology, On-line Control including Sampling Inspection and Statistical Process Control, Off-line Control with Data Analysis and Experimental Design, and, fields related to Reliability. Experts with international reputation present their newest contributions.

  6. Conjunction analysis and propositional logic in fMRI data analysis using Bayesian statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudert, Thomas; Lohmann, Gabriele

    2008-12-01

    To evaluate logical expressions over different effects in data analyses using the general linear model (GLM) and to evaluate logical expressions over different posterior probability maps (PPMs). In functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data analysis, the GLM was applied to estimate unknown regression parameters. Based on the GLM, Bayesian statistics can be used to determine the probability of conjunction, disjunction, implication, or any other arbitrary logical expression over different effects or contrast. For second-level inferences, PPMs from individual sessions or subjects are utilized. These PPMs can be combined to a logical expression and its probability can be computed. The methods proposed in this article are applied to data from a STROOP experiment and the methods are compared to conjunction analysis approaches for test-statistics. The combination of Bayesian statistics with propositional logic provides a new approach for data analyses in fMRI. Two different methods are introduced for propositional logic: the first for analyses using the GLM and the second for common inferences about different probability maps. The methods introduced extend the idea of conjunction analysis to a full propositional logic and adapt it from test-statistics to Bayesian statistics. The new approaches allow inferences that are not possible with known standard methods in fMRI. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  7. Reasoning with data an introduction to traditional and Bayesian statistics using R

    CERN Document Server

    Stanton, Jeffrey M

    2017-01-01

    Engaging and accessible, this book teaches readers how to use inferential statistical thinking to check their assumptions, assess evidence about their beliefs, and avoid overinterpreting results that may look more promising than they really are. It provides step-by-step guidance for using both classical (frequentist) and Bayesian approaches to inference. Statistical techniques covered side by side from both frequentist and Bayesian approaches include hypothesis testing, replication, analysis of variance, calculation of effect sizes, regression, time series analysis, and more. Students also get a complete introduction to the open-source R programming language and its key packages. Throughout the text, simple commands in R demonstrate essential data analysis skills using real-data examples. The companion website provides annotated R code for the book's examples, in-class exercises, supplemental reading lists, and links to online videos, interactive materials, and other resources.

  8. Bayesian statistics applied to neutron activation data for reactor flux spectrum analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiesa, Davide; Previtali, Ezio; Sisti, Monica

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Bayesian statistics to analyze the neutron flux spectrum from activation data. • Rigorous statistical approach for accurate evaluation of the neutron flux groups. • Cross section and activation data uncertainties included for the problem solution. • Flexible methodology applied to analyze different nuclear reactor flux spectra. • The results are in good agreement with the MCNP simulations of neutron fluxes. - Abstract: In this paper, we present a statistical method, based on Bayesian statistics, to analyze the neutron flux spectrum from the activation data of different isotopes. The experimental data were acquired during a neutron activation experiment performed at the TRIGA Mark II reactor of Pavia University (Italy) in four irradiation positions characterized by different neutron spectra. In order to evaluate the neutron flux spectrum, subdivided in energy groups, a system of linear equations, containing the group effective cross sections and the activation rate data, has to be solved. However, since the system’s coefficients are experimental data affected by uncertainties, a rigorous statistical approach is fundamental for an accurate evaluation of the neutron flux groups. For this purpose, we applied the Bayesian statistical analysis, that allows to include the uncertainties of the coefficients and the a priori information about the neutron flux. A program for the analysis of Bayesian hierarchical models, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, was used to define the problem statistical model and solve it. The first analysis involved the determination of the thermal, resonance-intermediate and fast flux components and the dependence of the results on the Prior distribution choice was investigated to confirm the reliability of the Bayesian analysis. After that, the main resonances of the activation cross sections were analyzed to implement multi-group models with finer energy subdivisions that would allow to determine the

  9. Frontiers in statistical quality control

    CERN Document Server

    Wilrich, Peter-Theodor

    2001-01-01

    The book is a collection of papers presented at the 5th International Workshop on Intelligent Statistical Quality Control in Würzburg, Germany. Contributions deal with methodology and successful industrial applications. They can be grouped in four catagories: Sampling Inspection, Statistical Process Control, Data Analysis and Process Capability Studies and Experimental Design.

  10. Conditional maximum-entropy method for selecting prior distributions in Bayesian statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abe, Sumiyoshi

    2014-11-01

    The conditional maximum-entropy method (abbreviated here as C-MaxEnt) is formulated for selecting prior probability distributions in Bayesian statistics for parameter estimation. This method is inspired by a statistical-mechanical approach to systems governed by dynamics with largely separated time scales and is based on three key concepts: conjugate pairs of variables, dimensionless integration measures with coarse-graining factors and partial maximization of the joint entropy. The method enables one to calculate a prior purely from a likelihood in a simple way. It is shown, in particular, how it not only yields Jeffreys's rules but also reveals new structures hidden behind them.

  11. Technical Topic 3.2.2.d Bayesian and Non-Parametric Statistics: Integration of Neural Networks with Bayesian Networks for Data Fusion and Predictive Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-31

    Distribution Unlimited UU UU UU UU 31-05-2016 15-Apr-2014 14-Jan-2015 Final Report: Technical Topic 3.2.2.d Bayesian and Non- parametric Statistics...of Papers published in non peer-reviewed journals: Final Report: Technical Topic 3.2.2.d Bayesian and Non- parametric Statistics: Integration of Neural...Transfer N/A Number of graduating undergraduates who achieved a 3.5 GPA to 4.0 (4.0 max scale ): Number of graduating undergraduates funded by a DoD funded

  12. Elements of probability and statistics an introduction to probability with De Finetti’s approach and to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Biagini, Francesca

    2016-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to elementary probability and to Bayesian statistics using de Finetti's subjectivist approach. One of the features of this approach is that it does not require the introduction of sample space – a non-intrinsic concept that makes the treatment of elementary probability unnecessarily complicate – but introduces as fundamental the concept of random numbers directly related to their interpretation in applications. Events become a particular case of random numbers and probability a particular case of expectation when it is applied to events. The subjective evaluation of expectation and of conditional expectation is based on an economic choice of an acceptable bet or penalty. The properties of expectation and conditional expectation are derived by applying a coherence criterion that the evaluation has to follow. The book is suitable for all introductory courses in probability and statistics for students in Mathematics, Informatics, Engineering, and Physics.

  13. Statistical Techniques for Project Control

    CERN Document Server

    Badiru, Adedeji B

    2012-01-01

    A project can be simple or complex. In each case, proven project management processes must be followed. In all cases of project management implementation, control must be exercised in order to assure that project objectives are achieved. Statistical Techniques for Project Control seamlessly integrates qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques for project control. It fills the void that exists in the application of statistical techniques to project control. The book begins by defining the fundamentals of project management then explores how to temper quantitative analysis with qualitati

  14. Statistical modelling of railway track geometry degradation using Hierarchical Bayesian models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrade, A.R.; Teixeira, P.F.

    2015-01-01

    Railway maintenance planners require a predictive model that can assess the railway track geometry degradation. The present paper uses a Hierarchical Bayesian model as a tool to model the main two quality indicators related to railway track geometry degradation: the standard deviation of longitudinal level defects and the standard deviation of horizontal alignment defects. Hierarchical Bayesian Models (HBM) are flexible statistical models that allow specifying different spatially correlated components between consecutive track sections, namely for the deterioration rates and the initial qualities parameters. HBM are developed for both quality indicators, conducting an extensive comparison between candidate models and a sensitivity analysis on prior distributions. HBM is applied to provide an overall assessment of the degradation of railway track geometry, for the main Portuguese railway line Lisbon–Oporto. - Highlights: • Rail track geometry degradation is analysed using Hierarchical Bayesian models. • A Gibbs sampling strategy is put forward to estimate the HBM. • Model comparison and sensitivity analysis find the most suitable model. • We applied the most suitable model to all the segments of the main Portuguese line. • Tackling spatial correlations using CAR structures lead to a better model fit

  15. Bayesian Statistics at Work: the Troublesome Extraction of the CKM Phase {alpha}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charles, J. [CPT, Luminy Case 907, F-13288 Marseille Cedex 9 (France); Hoecker, A. [CERN, CH-1211 Geneva 23 (Switzerland); Lacker, H. [TU Dresden, IKTP, D-01062 Dresden (Germany); Le Diberder, F.R. [LAL, CNRS/IN2P3, Universite Paris-Sud 11, Bat. 200, BP 34, F-91898 Orsay Cedex (France); T' Jampens, S. [LAPP, CNRS/IN2P3, Universite de Savoie, 9 Chemin de Bellevue, BP 110, F-74941 Annecy-le-Vieux Cedex (France)

    2007-04-15

    In Bayesian statistics, one's prior beliefs about underlying model parameters are revised with the information content of observed data from which, using Bayes' rule, a posterior belief is obtained. A non-trivial example taken from the isospin analysis of B {yields} PP (P = {pi} or {rho}) decays in heavy-flavor physics is chosen to illustrate the effect of the naive 'objective' choice of flat priors in a multi- dimensional parameter space in presence of mirror solutions. It is demonstrated that the posterior distribution for the parameter of interest, the phase {alpha}, strongly depends on the choice of the parameterization in which the priors are uniform, and on the validity range in which the (un-normalizable) priors are truncated. We prove that the most probable values found by the Bayesian treatment do not coincide with the explicit analytical solutions, in contrast to the frequentist approach. It is also shown in the appendix that the {alpha} {yields} 0 limit cannot be consistently treated in the Bayesian paradigm, because the latter violates the physical symmetries of the problem. (authors)

  16. Probabilistic Model for Untargeted Peak Detection in LC-MS Using Bayesian Statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woldegebriel, Michael; Vivó-Truyols, Gabriel

    2015-07-21

    We introduce a novel Bayesian probabilistic peak detection algorithm for liquid chromatography-mass spectroscopy (LC-MS). The final probabilistic result allows the user to make a final decision about which points in a chromatogram are affected by a chromatographic peak and which ones are only affected by noise. The use of probabilities contrasts with the traditional method in which a binary answer is given, relying on a threshold. By contrast, with the Bayesian peak detection presented here, the values of probability can be further propagated into other preprocessing steps, which will increase (or decrease) the importance of chromatographic regions into the final results. The present work is based on the use of the statistical overlap theory of component overlap from Davis and Giddings (Davis, J. M.; Giddings, J. Anal. Chem. 1983, 55, 418-424) as prior probability in the Bayesian formulation. The algorithm was tested on LC-MS Orbitrap data and was able to successfully distinguish chemical noise from actual peaks without any data preprocessing.

  17. Bayesian Statistics at Work: the Troublesome Extraction of the CKM Phase α

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charles, J.; Hoecker, A.; Lacker, H.; Le Diberder, F.R.; T'Jampens, S.

    2007-04-01

    In Bayesian statistics, one's prior beliefs about underlying model parameters are revised with the information content of observed data from which, using Bayes' rule, a posterior belief is obtained. A non-trivial example taken from the isospin analysis of B → PP (P = π or ρ) decays in heavy-flavor physics is chosen to illustrate the effect of the naive 'objective' choice of flat priors in a multi- dimensional parameter space in presence of mirror solutions. It is demonstrated that the posterior distribution for the parameter of interest, the phase α, strongly depends on the choice of the parameterization in which the priors are uniform, and on the validity range in which the (un-normalizable) priors are truncated. We prove that the most probable values found by the Bayesian treatment do not coincide with the explicit analytical solutions, in contrast to the frequentist approach. It is also shown in the appendix that the α → 0 limit cannot be consistently treated in the Bayesian paradigm, because the latter violates the physical symmetries of the problem. (authors)

  18. Robust statistics for deterministic and stochastic gravitational waves in non-Gaussian noise. II. Bayesian analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, Bruce; Creighton, Jolien D.E.; Flanagan, Eanna E.; Romano, Joseph D.

    2003-01-01

    In a previous paper (paper I), we derived a set of near-optimal signal detection techniques for gravitational wave detectors whose noise probability distributions contain non-Gaussian tails. The methods modify standard methods by truncating or clipping sample values which lie in those non-Gaussian tails. The methods were derived, in the frequentist framework, by minimizing false alarm probabilities at fixed false detection probability in the limit of weak signals. For stochastic signals, the resulting statistic consisted of a sum of an autocorrelation term and a cross-correlation term; it was necessary to discard 'by hand' the autocorrelation term in order to arrive at the correct, generalized cross-correlation statistic. In the present paper, we present an alternative derivation of the same signal detection techniques from within the Bayesian framework. We compute, for both deterministic and stochastic signals, the probability that a signal is present in the data, in the limit where the signal-to-noise ratio squared per frequency bin is small, where the signal is nevertheless strong enough to be detected (integrated signal-to-noise ratio large compared to 1), and where the total probability in the non-Gaussian tail part of the noise distribution is small. We show that, for each model considered, the resulting probability is to a good approximation a monotonic function of the detection statistic derived in paper I. Moreover, for stochastic signals, the new Bayesian derivation automatically eliminates the problematic autocorrelation term

  19. Dissolution curve comparisons through the F(2) parameter, a Bayesian extension of the f(2) statistic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novick, Steven; Shen, Yan; Yang, Harry; Peterson, John; LeBlond, Dave; Altan, Stan

    2015-01-01

    Dissolution (or in vitro release) studies constitute an important aspect of pharmaceutical drug development. One important use of such studies is for justifying a biowaiver for post-approval changes which requires establishing equivalence between the new and old product. We propose a statistically rigorous modeling approach for this purpose based on the estimation of what we refer to as the F2 parameter, an extension of the commonly used f2 statistic. A Bayesian test procedure is proposed in relation to a set of composite hypotheses that capture the similarity requirement on the absolute mean differences between test and reference dissolution profiles. Several examples are provided to illustrate the application. Results of our simulation study comparing the performance of f2 and the proposed method show that our Bayesian approach is comparable to or in many cases superior to the f2 statistic as a decision rule. Further useful extensions of the method, such as the use of continuous-time dissolution modeling, are considered.

  20. A Bayesian Formulation of Behavioral Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huys, Quentin J. M.; Dayan, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Helplessness, a belief that the world is not subject to behavioral control, has long been central to our understanding of depression, and has influenced cognitive theories, animal models and behavioral treatments. However, despite its importance, there is no fully accepted definition of helplessness or behavioral control in psychology or…

  1. MapReduce Based Parallel Bayesian Network for Manufacturing Quality Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Mao-Kuan; Ming, Xin-Guo; Zhang, Xian-Yu; Li, Guo-Ming

    2017-09-01

    Increasing complexity of industrial products and manufacturing processes have challenged conventional statistics based quality management approaches in the circumstances of dynamic production. A Bayesian network and big data analytics integrated approach for manufacturing process quality analysis and control is proposed. Based on Hadoop distributed architecture and MapReduce parallel computing model, big volume and variety quality related data generated during the manufacturing process could be dealt with. Artificial intelligent algorithms, including Bayesian network learning, classification and reasoning, are embedded into the Reduce process. Relying on the ability of the Bayesian network in dealing with dynamic and uncertain problem and the parallel computing power of MapReduce, Bayesian network of impact factors on quality are built based on prior probability distribution and modified with posterior probability distribution. A case study on hull segment manufacturing precision management for ship and offshore platform building shows that computing speed accelerates almost directly proportionally to the increase of computing nodes. It is also proved that the proposed model is feasible for locating and reasoning of root causes, forecasting of manufacturing outcome, and intelligent decision for precision problem solving. The integration of bigdata analytics and BN method offers a whole new perspective in manufacturing quality control.

  2. Assessing compositional variability through graphical analysis and Bayesian statistical approaches: case studies on transgenic crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrigan, George G; Harrison, Jay M

    2012-01-01

    New transgenic (GM) crops are subjected to extensive safety assessments that include compositional comparisons with conventional counterparts as a cornerstone of the process. The influence of germplasm, location, environment, and agronomic treatments on compositional variability is, however, often obscured in these pair-wise comparisons. Furthermore, classical statistical significance testing can often provide an incomplete and over-simplified summary of highly responsive variables such as crop composition. In order to more clearly describe the influence of the numerous sources of compositional variation we present an introduction to two alternative but complementary approaches to data analysis and interpretation. These include i) exploratory data analysis (EDA) with its emphasis on visualization and graphics-based approaches and ii) Bayesian statistical methodology that provides easily interpretable and meaningful evaluations of data in terms of probability distributions. The EDA case-studies include analyses of herbicide-tolerant GM soybean and insect-protected GM maize and soybean. Bayesian approaches are presented in an analysis of herbicide-tolerant GM soybean. Advantages of these approaches over classical frequentist significance testing include the more direct interpretation of results in terms of probabilities pertaining to quantities of interest and no confusion over the application of corrections for multiple comparisons. It is concluded that a standardized framework for these methodologies could provide specific advantages through enhanced clarity of presentation and interpretation in comparative assessments of crop composition.

  3. Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ke; Zhang, Qiuju; Wang, Kun; Chen, Peng; Wang, Huaqing

    2016-01-08

    A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF) and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN) is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal) and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs) for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  4. Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO. To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  5. Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ke; Zhang, Qiuju; Wang, Kun; Chen, Peng; Wang, Huaqing

    2016-01-01

    A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF) and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN) is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal) and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs) for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. PMID:26761006

  6. Statistical analysis using the Bayesian nonparametric method for irradiation embrittlement of reactor pressure vessels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takamizawa, Hisashi, E-mail: takamizawa.hisashi@jaea.go.jp; Itoh, Hiroto, E-mail: ito.hiroto@jaea.go.jp; Nishiyama, Yutaka, E-mail: nishiyama.yutaka93@jaea.go.jp

    2016-10-15

    In order to understand neutron irradiation embrittlement in high fluence regions, statistical analysis using the Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) method was performed for the Japanese surveillance and material test reactor irradiation database. The BNP method is essentially expressed as an infinite summation of normal distributions, with input data being subdivided into clusters with identical statistical parameters, such as mean and standard deviation, for each cluster to estimate shifts in ductile-to-brittle transition temperature (DBTT). The clusters typically depend on chemical compositions, irradiation conditions, and the irradiation embrittlement. Specific variables contributing to the irradiation embrittlement include the content of Cu, Ni, P, Si, and Mn in the pressure vessel steels, neutron flux, neutron fluence, and irradiation temperatures. It was found that the measured shifts of DBTT correlated well with the calculated ones. Data associated with the same materials were subdivided into the same clusters even if neutron fluences were increased.

  7. Evaluation of Oceanic Transport Statistics By Use of Transient Tracers and Bayesian Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trossman, D. S.; Thompson, L.; Mecking, S.; Bryan, F.; Peacock, S.

    2013-12-01

    Key variables that quantify the time scales over which atmospheric signals penetrate into the oceanic interior and their uncertainties are computed using Bayesian methods and transient tracers from both models and observations. First, the mean residence times, subduction rates, and formation rates of Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) and Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW) in the North Atlantic and Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) in the Southern Ocean are estimated by combining a model and observations of chlorofluorocarbon-11 (CFC-11) via Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), statistical technique that weights model estimates according to how close they agree with observations. Second, a Bayesian method is presented to find two oceanic transport parameters associated with the age distribution of ocean waters, the transit-time distribution (TTD), by combining an eddying global ocean model's estimate of the TTD with hydrographic observations of CFC-11, temperature, and salinity. Uncertainties associated with objectively mapping irregularly spaced bottle data are quantified by making use of a thin-plate spline and then propagated via the two Bayesian techniques. It is found that the subduction of STMW, SPMW, and SAMW is mostly an advective process, but up to about one-third of STMW subduction likely owes to non-advective processes. Also, while the formation of STMW is mostly due to subduction, the formation of SPMW is mostly due to other processes. About half of the formation of SAMW is due to subduction and half is due to other processes. A combination of air-sea flux, acting on relatively short time scales, and turbulent mixing, acting on a wide range of time scales, is likely the dominant SPMW erosion mechanism. Air-sea flux is likely responsible for most STMW erosion, and turbulent mixing is likely responsible for most SAMW erosion. Two oceanic transport parameters, the mean age of a water parcel and the half-variance associated with the TTD, estimated using the model's tracers as

  8. Exploring the Connection Between Sampling Problems in Bayesian Inference and Statistical Mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohorille, Andrew

    2006-01-01

    The Bayesian and statistical mechanical communities often share the same objective in their work - estimating and integrating probability distribution functions (pdfs) describing stochastic systems, models or processes. Frequently, these pdfs are complex functions of random variables exhibiting multiple, well separated local minima. Conventional strategies for sampling such pdfs are inefficient, sometimes leading to an apparent non-ergodic behavior. Several recently developed techniques for handling this problem have been successfully applied in statistical mechanics. In the multicanonical and Wang-Landau Monte Carlo (MC) methods, the correct pdfs are recovered from uniform sampling of the parameter space by iteratively establishing proper weighting factors connecting these distributions. Trivial generalizations allow for sampling from any chosen pdf. The closely related transition matrix method relies on estimating transition probabilities between different states. All these methods proved to generate estimates of pdfs with high statistical accuracy. In another MC technique, parallel tempering, several random walks, each corresponding to a different value of a parameter (e.g. "temperature"), are generated and occasionally exchanged using the Metropolis criterion. This method can be considered as a statistically correct version of simulated annealing. An alternative approach is to represent the set of independent variables as a Hamiltonian system. Considerab!e progress has been made in understanding how to ensure that the system obeys the equipartition theorem or, equivalently, that coupling between the variables is correctly described. Then a host of techniques developed for dynamical systems can be used. Among them, probably the most powerful is the Adaptive Biasing Force method, in which thermodynamic integration and biased sampling are combined to yield very efficient estimates of pdfs. The third class of methods deals with transitions between states described

  9. Application of Bayesian statistical decision theory to the optimization of generating set maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Procaccia, H.; Cordier, R.; Muller, S.

    1994-07-01

    Statistical decision theory could be a alternative for the optimization of preventive maintenance periodicity. In effect, this theory concerns the situation in which a decision maker has to make a choice between a set of reasonable decisions, and where the loss associated to a given decision depends on a probabilistic risk, called state of nature. In the case of maintenance optimization, the decisions to be analyzed are different periodicities proposed by the experts, given the observed feedback experience, the states of nature are the associated failure probabilities, and the losses are the expectations of the induced cost of maintenance and of consequences of the failures. As failure probabilities concern rare events, at the ultimate state of RCM analysis (failure of sub-component), and as expected foreseeable behaviour of equipment has to be evaluated by experts, Bayesian approach is successfully used to compute states of nature. In Bayesian decision theory, a prior distribution for failure probabilities is modeled from expert knowledge, and is combined with few stochastic information provided by feedback experience, giving a posterior distribution of failure probabilities. The optimized decision is the decision that minimizes the expected loss over the posterior distribution. This methodology has been applied to inspection and maintenance optimization of cylinders of diesel generator engines of 900 MW nuclear plants. In these plants, auxiliary electric power is supplied by 2 redundant diesel generators which are tested every 2 weeks during about 1 hour. Until now, during yearly refueling of each plant, one endoscopic inspection of diesel cylinders is performed, and every 5 operating years, all cylinders are replaced. RCM has shown that cylinder failures could be critical. So Bayesian decision theory has been applied, taking into account expert opinions, and possibility of aging when maintenance periodicity is extended. (authors). 8 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  10. Bayesian versus frequentist statistical inference for investigating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wills Rachael A

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The problem of silent multiple comparisons is one of the most difficult statistical problems faced by scientists. It is a particular problem for investigating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department because any one of hundreds, or possibly thousands, of neighbourhoods, schools, or workplaces could have reported a cluster, which could have been for any one of several types of cancer or any one of several time periods. Methods This paper contrasts the frequentist approach with a Bayesian approach for dealing with silent multiple comparisons in the context of a one-off cluster reported to a health department. Two published cluster investigations were re-analysed using the Dunn-Sidak method to adjust frequentist p-values and confidence intervals for silent multiple comparisons. Bayesian methods were based on the Gamma distribution. Results Bayesian analysis with non-informative priors produced results similar to the frequentist analysis, and suggested that both clusters represented a statistical excess. In the frequentist framework, the statistical significance of both clusters was extremely sensitive to the number of silent multiple comparisons, which can only ever be a subjective "guesstimate". The Bayesian approach is also subjective: whether there is an apparent statistical excess depends on the specified prior. Conclusion In cluster investigations, the frequentist approach is just as subjective as the Bayesian approach, but the Bayesian approach is less ambitious in that it treats the analysis as a synthesis of data and personal judgements (possibly poor ones, rather than objective reality. Bayesian analysis is (arguably a useful tool to support complicated decision-making, because it makes the uncertainty associated with silent multiple comparisons explicit.

  11. Statistical Inference at Work: Statistical Process Control as an Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, Arthur; Kent, Phillip; Derry, Jan; Noss, Richard; Hoyles, Celia

    2008-01-01

    To characterise statistical inference in the workplace this paper compares a prototypical type of statistical inference at work, statistical process control (SPC), with a type of statistical inference that is better known in educational settings, hypothesis testing. Although there are some similarities between the reasoning structure involved in…

  12. Crossing statistic: Bayesian interpretation, model selection and resolving dark energy parametrization problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafieloo, Arman

    2012-01-01

    By introducing Crossing functions and hyper-parameters I show that the Bayesian interpretation of the Crossing Statistics [1] can be used trivially for the purpose of model selection among cosmological models. In this approach to falsify a cosmological model there is no need to compare it with other models or assume any particular form of parametrization for the cosmological quantities like luminosity distance, Hubble parameter or equation of state of dark energy. Instead, hyper-parameters of Crossing functions perform as discriminators between correct and wrong models. Using this approach one can falsify any assumed cosmological model without putting priors on the underlying actual model of the universe and its parameters, hence the issue of dark energy parametrization is resolved. It will be also shown that the sensitivity of the method to the intrinsic dispersion of the data is small that is another important characteristic of the method in testing cosmological models dealing with data with high uncertainties

  13. Bayesian Software Health Management for Aircraft Guidance, Navigation, and Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, Johann; Mbaya, Timmy; Menghoel, Ole

    2011-01-01

    Modern aircraft, both piloted fly-by-wire commercial aircraft as well as UAVs, more and more depend on highly complex safety critical software systems with many sensors and computer-controlled actuators. Despite careful design and V&V of the software, severe incidents have happened due to malfunctioning software. In this paper, we discuss the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) to monitor the health of the on-board software and sensor system, and to perform advanced on-board diagnostic reasoning. We will focus on the approach to develop reliable and robust health models for the combined software and sensor systems.

  14. How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J; Austin, R Marshall

    2016-01-01

    Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches.

  15. Reliability of equipments and theory of frequency statistics and Bayesian decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Procaccia, H.; Clarotti, C.A.

    1992-01-01

    The rapid development of Bayesian techniques use in the domain of industrial risk is a recent phenomenon linked to the development of powerful computers. These techniques involve a reasoning well adapted to experimental logics, based on the dynamical knowledge enrichment with experience data. In the framework of reliability studies and statistical decision making, these methods differ slightly from the methods commonly used to evaluate the reliability of systems and from classical theoretical frequency statistics. This particular approach is described in this book and illustrated with many examples of application (power plants, pressure vessels, industrial installations etc..). These examples generally concern the risk management in the cases where the application of rules and the respect of norms become insufficient. It is now well known that the risk cannot be reduced to zero and that its evaluation must be performed using statistics, taking into account the possible accident processes and also the investments necessary to avoid them (service life, failure, maintenance costs and availability of materials). The result is the optimizing of a decision process about rare or uncertain events. (J.S.)

  16. Quality assurance and statistical control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, K.

    1991-01-01

    In scientific research laboratories it is rarely possible to use quality assurance schemes, developed for large-scale analysis. Instead methods have been developed to control the quality of modest numbers of analytical results by relying on statistical control: Analysis of precision serves...... to detect analytical errors by comparing the a priori precision of the analytical results with the actual variability observed among replicates or duplicates. The method relies on the chi-square distribution to detect excess variability and is quite sensitive even for 5-10 results. Interference control...... serves to detect analytical bias by comparing results obtained by two different analytical methods, each relying on a different detection principle and therefore exhibiting different influence from matrix elements; only 5-10 sets of results are required to establish whether a regression line passes...

  17. A novel approach for choosing summary statistics in approximate Bayesian computation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aeschbacher, Simon; Beaumont, Mark A; Futschik, Andreas

    2012-11-01

    The choice of summary statistics is a crucial step in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Since statistics are often not sufficient, this choice involves a trade-off between loss of information and reduction of dimensionality. The latter may increase the efficiency of ABC. Here, we propose an approach for choosing summary statistics based on boosting, a technique from the machine-learning literature. We consider different types of boosting and compare them to partial least-squares regression as an alternative. To mitigate the lack of sufficiency, we also propose an approach for choosing summary statistics locally, in the putative neighborhood of the true parameter value. We study a demographic model motivated by the reintroduction of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) into the Swiss Alps. The parameters of interest are the mean and standard deviation across microsatellites of the scaled ancestral mutation rate (θ(anc) = 4N(e)u) and the proportion of males obtaining access to matings per breeding season (ω). By simulation, we assess the properties of the posterior distribution obtained with the various methods. According to our criteria, ABC with summary statistics chosen locally via boosting with the L(2)-loss performs best. Applying that method to the ibex data, we estimate θ(anc)≈ 1.288 and find that most of the variation across loci of the ancestral mutation rate u is between 7.7 × 10(-4) and 3.5 × 10(-3) per locus per generation. The proportion of males with access to matings is estimated as ω≈ 0.21, which is in good agreement with recent independent estimates.

  18. Bayesian-statistical decision threshold, detection limit, and confidence interval in nuclear radiation measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weise, K.

    1998-01-01

    When a contribution of a particular nuclear radiation is to be detected, for instance, a spectral line of interest for some purpose of radiation protection, and quantities and their uncertainties must be taken into account which, such as influence quantities, cannot be determined by repeated measurements or by counting nuclear radiation events, then conventional statistics of event frequencies is not sufficient for defining the decision threshold, the detection limit, and the limits of a confidence interval. These characteristic limits are therefore redefined on the basis of Bayesian statistics for a wider applicability and in such a way that the usual practice remains as far as possible unaffected. The principle of maximum entropy is applied to establish probability distributions from available information. Quantiles of these distributions are used for defining the characteristic limits. But such a distribution must not be interpreted as a distribution of event frequencies such as the Poisson distribution. It rather expresses the actual state of incomplete knowledge of a physical quantity. The different definitions and interpretations and their quantitative consequences are presented and discussed with two examples. The new approach provides a theoretical basis for the DIN 25482-10 standard presently in preparation for general applications of the characteristic limits. (orig.) [de

  19. A Bayesian statistical analysis of mouse dermal tumor promotion assay data for evaluating cigarette smoke condensate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kathman, Steven J; Potts, Ryan J; Ayres, Paul H; Harp, Paul R; Wilson, Cody L; Garner, Charles D

    2010-10-01

    The mouse dermal assay has long been used to assess the dermal tumorigenicity of cigarette smoke condensate (CSC). This mouse skin model has been developed for use in carcinogenicity testing utilizing the SENCAR mouse as the standard strain. Though the model has limitations, it remains as the most relevant method available to study the dermal tumor promoting potential of mainstream cigarette smoke. In the typical SENCAR mouse CSC bioassay, CSC is applied for 29 weeks following the application of a tumor initiator such as 7,12-dimethylbenz[a]anthracene (DMBA). Several endpoints are considered for analysis including: the percentage of animals with at least one mass, latency, and number of masses per animal. In this paper, a relatively straightforward analytic model and procedure is presented for analyzing the time course of the incidence of masses. The procedure considered here takes advantage of Bayesian statistical techniques, which provide powerful methods for model fitting and simulation. Two datasets are analyzed to illustrate how the model fits the data, how well the model may perform in predicting data from such trials, and how the model may be used as a decision tool when comparing the dermal tumorigenicity of cigarette smoke condensate from multiple cigarette types. The analysis presented here was developed as a statistical decision tool for differentiating between two or more prototype products based on the dermal tumorigenicity. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. To be certain about the uncertainty: Bayesian statistics for 13 C metabolic flux analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theorell, Axel; Leweke, Samuel; Wiechert, Wolfgang; Nöh, Katharina

    2017-11-01

    13 C Metabolic Fluxes Analysis ( 13 C MFA) remains to be the most powerful approach to determine intracellular metabolic reaction rates. Decisions on strain engineering and experimentation heavily rely upon the certainty with which these fluxes are estimated. For uncertainty quantification, the vast majority of 13 C MFA studies relies on confidence intervals from the paradigm of Frequentist statistics. However, it is well known that the confidence intervals for a given experimental outcome are not uniquely defined. As a result, confidence intervals produced by different methods can be different, but nevertheless equally valid. This is of high relevance to 13 C MFA, since practitioners regularly use three different approximate approaches for calculating confidence intervals. By means of a computational study with a realistic model of the central carbon metabolism of E. coli, we provide strong evidence that confidence intervals used in the field depend strongly on the technique with which they were calculated and, thus, their use leads to misinterpretation of the flux uncertainty. In order to provide a better alternative to confidence intervals in 13 C MFA, we demonstrate that credible intervals from the paradigm of Bayesian statistics give more reliable flux uncertainty quantifications which can be readily computed with high accuracy using Markov chain Monte Carlo. In addition, the widely applied chi-square test, as a means of testing whether the model reproduces the data, is examined closer. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. OSL Age Determination of the Hearths in a Bronze Age Dwelling Site by using Bayesian Statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Myung Jin [Neosiskorea Co. Ltd., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Yang, Hye Jin [Baekje Cultural Properties Research Institute, Gongju (Korea, Republic of); Hong, Duk Geun [Kangwon National University, Chuncheon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-06-15

    OSL dating for three hearths having the sequence of use and discard in No. 29 and 29-1 dwelling sites at Sogol cultural site was carried out. Resulting from the deconvolution of natural CW-OSL decay curve and thermal zeroing test, it was turned out that OSL signal was entirely composed of the heat- and light-sensitive fast component with high photoionization cross-section and all quartz OSL signals were thermally bleached under 300 .deg. C which is the minimum temperature related to heating and cooking in Bronze age. After dose recovery test and plateau test, paleodose of each hearth sample was evaluated by using SAR method, and OSL age was determined from the ratio of paleodose to annual dose rate. For the purpose of the precision improvement of OSL age, Bayesian statistics was applied to each hearth's age and the archaeological sequence information. Finally, it could be concluded to the accurate use period of each hearth from the resultant OSL ages.

  2. Automated parameter estimation for biological models using Bayesian statistical model checking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Faraz; Langmead, Christopher J; Mi, Qi; Dutta-Moscato, Joyeeta; Vodovotz, Yoram; Jha, Sumit K

    2015-01-01

    Probabilistic models have gained widespread acceptance in the systems biology community as a useful way to represent complex biological systems. Such models are developed using existing knowledge of the structure and dynamics of the system, experimental observations, and inferences drawn from statistical analysis of empirical data. A key bottleneck in building such models is that some system variables cannot be measured experimentally. These variables are incorporated into the model as numerical parameters. Determining values of these parameters that justify existing experiments and provide reliable predictions when model simulations are performed is a key research problem. Using an agent-based model of the dynamics of acute inflammation, we demonstrate a novel parameter estimation algorithm by discovering the amount and schedule of doses of bacterial lipopolysaccharide that guarantee a set of observed clinical outcomes with high probability. We synthesized values of twenty-eight unknown parameters such that the parameterized model instantiated with these parameter values satisfies four specifications describing the dynamic behavior of the model. We have developed a new algorithmic technique for discovering parameters in complex stochastic models of biological systems given behavioral specifications written in a formal mathematical logic. Our algorithm uses Bayesian model checking, sequential hypothesis testing, and stochastic optimization to automatically synthesize parameters of probabilistic biological models.

  3. OSL Age Determination of the Hearths in a Bronze Age Dwelling Site by using Bayesian Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Myung Jin; Yang, Hye Jin; Hong, Duk Geun

    2011-01-01

    OSL dating for three hearths having the sequence of use and discard in No. 29 and 29-1 dwelling sites at Sogol cultural site was carried out. Resulting from the deconvolution of natural CW-OSL decay curve and thermal zeroing test, it was turned out that OSL signal was entirely composed of the heat- and light-sensitive fast component with high photoionization cross-section and all quartz OSL signals were thermally bleached under 300 .deg. C which is the minimum temperature related to heating and cooking in Bronze age. After dose recovery test and plateau test, paleodose of each hearth sample was evaluated by using SAR method, and OSL age was determined from the ratio of paleodose to annual dose rate. For the purpose of the precision improvement of OSL age, Bayesian statistics was applied to each hearth's age and the archaeological sequence information. Finally, it could be concluded to the accurate use period of each hearth from the resultant OSL ages

  4. A Bayesian Framework for Multiple Trait Colo-calization from Summary Association Statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giambartolomei, Claudia; Zhenli Liu, Jimmy; Zhang, Wen; Hauberg, Mads; Shi, Huwenbo; Boocock, James; Pickrell, Joe; Jaffe, Andrew E; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Roussos, Panos

    2018-03-19

    Most genetic variants implicated in complex diseases by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are non-coding, making it challenging to understand the causative genes involved in disease. Integrating external information such as quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping of molecular traits (e.g., expression, methylation) is a powerful approach to identify the subset of GWAS signals explained by regulatory effects. In particular, expression QTLs (eQTLs) help pinpoint the responsible gene among the GWAS regions that harbor many genes, while methylation QTLs (mQTLs) help identify the epigenetic mechanisms that impact gene expression which in turn affect disease risk. In this work we propose multiple-trait-coloc (moloc), a Bayesian statistical framework that integrates GWAS summary data with multiple molecular QTL data to identify regulatory effects at GWAS risk loci. We applied moloc to schizophrenia (SCZ) and eQTL/mQTL data derived from human brain tissue and identified 52 candidate genes that influence SCZ through methylation. Our method can be applied to any GWAS and relevant functional data to help prioritize disease associated genes. moloc is available for download as an R package (https://github.com/clagiamba/moloc). We also developed a web site to visualize the biological findings (icahn.mssm.edu/moloc). The browser allows searches by gene, methylation probe, and scenario of interest. claudia.giambartolomei@gmail.com. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  5. Application of Bayesian statistical decision theory for a maintenance optimization problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Procaccia, H.; Cordier, R.; Muller, S.

    1997-01-01

    Reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) is a rational approach that can be used to identify the equipment of facilities that may turn out to be critical with respect to safety, to availability, or to maintenance costs. Is is dor these critical pieces of equipment alone that a corrective (one waits for a failure) or preventive (the type and frequency are specified) maintenance policy is established. But this approach has limitations: - when there is little operating feedback and it concerns rare events affecting a piece of equipment judged critical on a priori grounds (how is it possible, in this case, to decide whether or not it is critical, since there is conflict between the gravity of the potential failure and its frequency?); - when the aim is propose an optimal maintenance frequency for a critical piece of equipment - changing the maintenance frequency hitherto applied may cause a significant drift in the observed reliability of the equipment, an aspect not generally taken into account in the RCM approach. In these two situations, expert judgments can be combined with the available operating feedback (Bayesian approach) and the combination of risk of failure and economic consequences taken into account (statistical decision theory) to achieve a true optimization of maintenance policy choices. This paper presents an application on the maintenance of diesel generator component

  6. Integration of association statistics over genomic regions using Bayesian adaptive regression splines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Xiaohua

    2003-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In the search for genetic determinants of complex disease, two approaches to association analysis are most often employed, testing single loci or testing a small group of loci jointly via haplotypes for their relationship to disease status. It is still debatable which of these approaches is more favourable, and under what conditions. The former has the advantage of simplicity but suffers severely when alleles at the tested loci are not in linkage disequilibrium (LD with liability alleles; the latter should capture more of the signal encoded in LD, but is far from simple. The complexity of haplotype analysis could be especially troublesome for association scans over large genomic regions, which, in fact, is becoming the standard design. For these reasons, the authors have been evaluating statistical methods that bridge the gap between single-locus and haplotype-based tests. In this article, they present one such method, which uses non-parametric regression techniques embodied by Bayesian adaptive regression splines (BARS. For a set of markers falling within a common genomic region and a corresponding set of single-locus association statistics, the BARS procedure integrates these results into a single test by examining the class of smooth curves consistent with the data. The non-parametric BARS procedure generally finds no signal when no liability allele exists in the tested region (ie it achieves the specified size of the test and it is sensitive enough to pick up signals when a liability allele is present. The BARS procedure provides a robust and potentially powerful alternative to classical tests of association, diminishes the multiple testing problem inherent in those tests and can be applied to a wide range of data types, including genotype frequencies estimated from pooled samples.

  7. Review of bayesian statistical analysis methods for cytogenetic radiation biodosimetry, with a practical example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ainsbury, Elizabeth A.; Lloyd, David C.; Rothkamm, Kai; Vinnikov, Volodymyr A.; Maznyk, Nataliya A.; Puig, Pedro; Higueras, Manuel

    2014-01-01

    Classical methods of assessing the uncertainty associated with radiation doses estimated using cytogenetic techniques are now extremely well defined. However, several authors have suggested that a Bayesian approach to uncertainty estimation may be more suitable for cytogenetic data, which are inherently stochastic in nature. The Bayesian analysis framework focuses on identification of probability distributions (for yield of aberrations or estimated dose), which also means that uncertainty is an intrinsic part of the analysis, rather than an 'afterthought'. In this paper Bayesian, as well as some more advanced classical, data analysis methods for radiation cytogenetics are reviewed that have been proposed in the literature. A practical overview of Bayesian cytogenetic dose estimation is also presented, with worked examples from the literature. (authors)

  8. Bayesian Statistical Analysis of Historical and Late Holocene Rates of Sea-Level Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Niamh; Parnell, Andrew; Kemp, Andrew; Horton, Benjamin

    2014-05-01

    A fundamental concern associated with climate change is the rate at which sea levels are rising. Studies of past sea level (particularly beyond the instrumental data range) allow modern sea-level rise to be placed in a more complete context. Considering this, we perform a Bayesian statistical analysis on historical and late Holocene rates of sea-level change. The data that form the input to the statistical model are tide-gauge measurements and proxy reconstructions from cores of coastal sediment. The aims are to estimate rates of sea-level rise, to determine when modern rates of sea-level rise began and to observe how these rates have been changing over time. Many of the current methods for doing this use simple linear regression to estimate rates. This is often inappropriate as it is too rigid and it can ignore uncertainties that arise as part of the data collection exercise. This can lead to over confidence in the sea-level trends being characterized. The proposed Bayesian model places a Gaussian process prior on the rate process (i.e. the process that determines how rates of sea-level are changing over time). The likelihood of the observed data is the integral of this process. When dealing with proxy reconstructions, this is set in an errors-in-variables framework so as to take account of age uncertainty. It is also necessary, in this case, for the model to account for glacio-isostatic adjustment, which introduces a covariance between individual age and sea-level observations. This method provides a flexible fit and it allows for the direct estimation of the rate process with full consideration of all sources of uncertainty. Analysis of tide-gauge datasets and proxy reconstructions in this way means that changing rates of sea level can be estimated more comprehensively and accurately than previously possible. The model captures the continuous and dynamic evolution of sea-level change and results show that not only are modern sea levels rising but that the rates

  9. Statistical analysis of modal parameters of a suspension bridge based on Bayesian spectral density approach and SHM data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhijun; Feng, Maria Q.; Luo, Longxi; Feng, Dongming; Xu, Xiuli

    2018-01-01

    Uncertainty of modal parameters estimation appear in structural health monitoring (SHM) practice of civil engineering to quite some significant extent due to environmental influences and modeling errors. Reasonable methodologies are needed for processing the uncertainty. Bayesian inference can provide a promising and feasible identification solution for the purpose of SHM. However, there are relatively few researches on the application of Bayesian spectral method in the modal identification using SHM data sets. To extract modal parameters from large data sets collected by SHM system, the Bayesian spectral density algorithm was applied to address the uncertainty of mode extraction from output-only response of a long-span suspension bridge. The posterior most possible values of modal parameters and their uncertainties were estimated through Bayesian inference. A long-term variation and statistical analysis was performed using the sensor data sets collected from the SHM system of the suspension bridge over a one-year period. The t location-scale distribution was shown to be a better candidate function for frequencies of lower modes. On the other hand, the burr distribution provided the best fitting to the higher modes which are sensitive to the temperature. In addition, wind-induced variation of modal parameters was also investigated. It was observed that both the damping ratios and modal forces increased during the period of typhoon excitations. Meanwhile, the modal damping ratios exhibit significant correlation with the spectral intensities of the corresponding modal forces.

  10. Multivariate Statistical Process Control Charts: An Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Bersimis, Sotiris; Psarakis, Stelios; Panaretos, John

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the basic procedures for the implementation of multivariate statistical process control via control charting. Furthermore, we review multivariate extensions for all kinds of univariate control charts, such as multivariate Shewhart-type control charts, multivariate CUSUM control charts and multivariate EWMA control charts. In addition, we review unique procedures for the construction of multivariate control charts, based on multivariate statistical techniques such as p...

  11. Image Denoising via Bayesian Estimation of Statistical Parameter Using Generalized Gamma Density Prior in Gaussian Noise Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kittisuwan, Pichid

    2015-03-01

    The application of image processing in industry has shown remarkable success over the last decade, for example, in security and telecommunication systems. The denoising of natural image corrupted by Gaussian noise is a classical problem in image processing. So, image denoising is an indispensable step during image processing. This paper is concerned with dual-tree complex wavelet-based image denoising using Bayesian techniques. One of the cruxes of the Bayesian image denoising algorithms is to estimate the statistical parameter of the image. Here, we employ maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation to calculate local observed variance with generalized Gamma density prior for local observed variance and Laplacian or Gaussian distribution for noisy wavelet coefficients. Evidently, our selection of prior distribution is motivated by efficient and flexible properties of generalized Gamma density. The experimental results show that the proposed method yields good denoising results.

  12. Improved parameterization of managed grassland in a global process-based vegetation model using Bayesian statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolinski, S.; Müller, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bondeau, A.

    2010-12-01

    information on boundary conditions such as water and light availability or temperature sensibility. Based on the given limitation factors, a number of sensitive parameters are chosen, e.g. for the phenological development, biomass allocation, and different management regimes. These are introduced to a sensitivity analysis and Bayesian parameter evaluation using the R package FME (Soetart & Petzoldt, Journal of Statistical Software, 2010). Given the extremely different climatic conditions at the FluxNet grass sites, the premises for the global sensitivity analysis are very promising.

  13. Frequentist and Bayesian inference for Gaussian-log-Gaussian wavelet trees and statistical signal processing applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Christian Robert Dahl; Møller, Jesper

    2017-01-01

    We introduce new estimation methods for a subclass of the Gaussian scale mixture models for wavelet trees by Wainwright, Simoncelli and Willsky that rely on modern results for composite likelihoods and approximate Bayesian inference. Our methodology is illustrated for denoising and edge detection...

  14. Optimum Inductive Methods. A study in Inductive Probability, Bayesian Statistics, and Verisimilitude.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Festa, Roberto

    1992-01-01

    According to the Bayesian view, scientific hypotheses must be appraised in terms of their posterior probabilities relative to the available experimental data. Such posterior probabilities are derived from the prior probabilities of the hypotheses by applying Bayes'theorem. One of the most important

  15. Probabilistic model for untargeted peak detection in LC-MS using Bayesian statistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woldegebriel, M.; Vivó-Truyols, G.

    2015-01-01

    We introduce a novel Bayesian probabilistic peak detection algorithm for liquid chromatography mass spectroscopy (LC-MS). The final probabilistic result allows the user to make a final decision about which points in a 2 chromatogram are affected by a chromatographic peak and which ones are only

  16. Frontiers in statistical quality control 11

    CERN Document Server

    Schmid, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    The main focus of this edited volume is on three major areas of statistical quality control: statistical process control (SPC), acceptance sampling and design of experiments. The majority of the papers deal with statistical process control, while acceptance sampling and design of experiments are also treated to a lesser extent. The book is organized into four thematic parts, with Part I addressing statistical process control. Part II is devoted to acceptance sampling. Part III covers the design of experiments, while Part IV discusses related fields. The twenty-three papers in this volume stem from The 11th International Workshop on Intelligent Statistical Quality Control, which was held in Sydney, Australia from August 20 to August 23, 2013. The event was hosted by Professor Ross Sparks, CSIRO Mathematics, Informatics and Statistics, North Ryde, Australia and was jointly organized by Professors S. Knoth, W. Schmid and Ross Sparks. The papers presented here were carefully selected and reviewed by the scientifi...

  17. Complexity control in statistical learning

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Then we describe how the method of regularization is used to control complexity in learning. We discuss two examples of regularization, one in which the function space used is finite dimensional, and another in which it is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Our exposition follows the formulation of Cucker and Smale.

  18. Frontiers in statistical quality control

    CERN Document Server

    Wilrich, Peter-Theodor

    1997-01-01

    Like the preceding volumes, and met with a lively response, the present volume is collecting contributions stressed on methodology or successful industrial applications. The papers are classified under four main headings: sampling inspection, process quality control, data analysis and process capability studies and finally experimental design.

  19. Two sample Bayesian prediction intervals for order statistics based on the inverse exponential-type distributions using right censored sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.M. Mohie El-Din

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, two sample Bayesian prediction intervals for order statistics (OS are obtained. This prediction is based on a certain class of the inverse exponential-type distributions using a right censored sample. A general class of prior density functions is used and the predictive cumulative function is obtained in the two samples case. The class of the inverse exponential-type distributions includes several important distributions such the inverse Weibull distribution, the inverse Burr distribution, the loglogistic distribution, the inverse Pareto distribution and the inverse paralogistic distribution. Special cases of the inverse Weibull model such as the inverse exponential model and the inverse Rayleigh model are considered.

  20. Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, A. D.

    2015-12-01

    The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity

  1. On the limitations of standard statistical modeling in biological systems: a full Bayesian approach for biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez-Ramirez, Jaime; Sanz, Ricardo

    2013-09-01

    One of the most important scientific challenges today is the quantitative and predictive understanding of biological function. Classical mathematical and computational approaches have been enormously successful in modeling inert matter, but they may be inadequate to address inherent features of biological systems. We address the conceptual and methodological obstacles that lie in the inverse problem in biological systems modeling. We introduce a full Bayesian approach (FBA), a theoretical framework to study biological function, in which probability distributions are conditional on biophysical information that physically resides in the biological system that is studied by the scientist. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Using Bayesian statistics for modeling PTSD through Latent Growth Mixture Modeling: implementation and discussion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Depaoli

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: After traumatic events, such as disaster, war trauma, and injuries including burns (which is the focus here, the risk to develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD is approximately 10% (Breslau & Davis, 1992. Latent Growth Mixture Modeling can be used to classify individuals into distinct groups exhibiting different patterns of PTSD (Galatzer-Levy, 2015. Currently, empirical evidence points to four distinct trajectories of PTSD patterns in those who have experienced burn trauma. These trajectories are labeled as: resilient, recovery, chronic, and delayed onset trajectories (e.g., Bonanno, 2004; Bonanno, Brewin, Kaniasty, & Greca, 2010; Maercker, Gäbler, O'Neil, Schützwohl, & Müller, 2013; Pietrzak et al., 2013. The delayed onset trajectory affects only a small group of individuals, that is, about 4–5% (O'Donnell, Elliott, Lau, & Creamer, 2007. In addition to its low frequency, the later onset of this trajectory may contribute to the fact that these individuals can be easily overlooked by professionals. In this special symposium on Estimating PTSD trajectories (Van de Schoot, 2015a, we illustrate how to properly identify this small group of individuals through the Bayesian estimation framework using previous knowledge through priors (see, e.g., Depaoli & Boyajian, 2014; Van de Schoot, Broere, Perryck, Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, & Van Loey, 2015. Method: We used latent growth mixture modeling (LGMM (Van de Schoot, 2015b to estimate PTSD trajectories across 4 years that followed a traumatic burn. We demonstrate and compare results from traditional (maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation using priors (see, Depaoli, 2012, 2013. Further, we discuss where priors come from and how to define them in the estimation process. Results: We demonstrate that only the Bayesian approach results in the desired theory-driven solution of PTSD trajectories. Since the priors are chosen subjectively, we also present a sensitivity analysis of the

  3. Statistical learning methods: Basics, control and performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zimmermann, J. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik, Foehringer Ring 6, 80805 Munich (Germany)]. E-mail: zimmerm@mppmu.mpg.de

    2006-04-01

    The basics of statistical learning are reviewed with a special emphasis on general principles and problems for all different types of learning methods. Different aspects of controlling these methods in a physically adequate way will be discussed. All principles and guidelines will be exercised on examples for statistical learning methods in high energy and astrophysics. These examples prove in addition that statistical learning methods very often lead to a remarkable performance gain compared to the competing classical algorithms.

  4. Statistical learning methods: Basics, control and performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimmermann, J.

    2006-01-01

    The basics of statistical learning are reviewed with a special emphasis on general principles and problems for all different types of learning methods. Different aspects of controlling these methods in a physically adequate way will be discussed. All principles and guidelines will be exercised on examples for statistical learning methods in high energy and astrophysics. These examples prove in addition that statistical learning methods very often lead to a remarkable performance gain compared to the competing classical algorithms

  5. Robust control charts in statistical process control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nazir, H.Z.

    2014-01-01

    The presence of outliers and contaminations in the output of the process highly affects the performance of the design structures of commonly used control charts and hence makes them of less practical use. One of the solutions to deal with this problem is to use control charts which are robust

  6. Understanding Short-Term Nonmigrating Tidal Variability in the Ionospheric Dynamo Region from SABER Using Information Theory and Bayesian Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumari, K.; Oberheide, J.

    2017-12-01

    Nonmigrating tidal diagnostics of SABER temperature observations in the ionospheric dynamo region reveal a large amount of variability on time-scales of a few days to weeks. In this paper, we discuss the physical reasons for the observed short-term tidal variability using a novel approach based on Information theory and Bayesian statistics. We diagnose short-term tidal variability as a function of season, QBO, ENSO, and solar cycle and other drivers using time dependent probability density functions, Shannon entropy and Kullback-Leibler divergence. The statistical significance of the approach and its predictive capability is exemplified using SABER tidal diagnostics with emphasis on the responses to the QBO and solar cycle. Implications for F-region plasma density will be discussed.

  7. Uncertainty analysis of depth predictions from seismic reflection data using Bayesian statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelioudakis, Dimitrios G.; Hobbs, Richard W.; Caiado, Camila C. S.

    2018-03-01

    Estimating the depths of target horizons from seismic reflection data is an important task in exploration geophysics. To constrain these depths we need a reliable and accurate velocity model. Here, we build an optimum 2D seismic reflection data processing flow focused on pre - stack deghosting filters and velocity model building and apply Bayesian methods, including Gaussian process emulation and Bayesian History Matching (BHM), to estimate the uncertainties of the depths of key horizons near the borehole DSDP-258 located in the Mentelle Basin, south west of Australia, and compare the results with the drilled core from that well. Following this strategy, the tie between the modelled and observed depths from DSDP-258 core was in accordance with the ± 2σ posterior credibility intervals and predictions for depths to key horizons were made for the two new drill sites, adjacent the existing borehole of the area. The probabilistic analysis allowed us to generate multiple realizations of pre-stack depth migrated images, these can be directly used to better constrain interpretation and identify potential risk at drill sites. The method will be applied to constrain the drilling targets for the upcoming International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP), leg 369.

  8. Topics in Computational Bayesian Statistics With Applications to Hierarchical Models in Astronomy and Sociology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahai, Swupnil

    This thesis includes three parts. The overarching theme is how to analyze structured hierarchical data, with applications to astronomy and sociology. The first part discusses how expectation propagation can be used to parallelize the computation when fitting big hierarchical bayesian models. This methodology is then used to fit a novel, nonlinear mixture model to ultraviolet radiation from various regions of the observable universe. The second part discusses how the Stan probabilistic programming language can be used to numerically integrate terms in a hierarchical bayesian model. This technique is demonstrated on supernovae data to significantly speed up convergence to the posterior distribution compared to a previous study that used a Gibbs-type sampler. The third part builds a formal latent kernel representation for aggregate relational data as a way to more robustly estimate the mixing characteristics of agents in a network. In particular, the framework is applied to sociology surveys to estimate, as a function of ego age, the age and sex composition of the personal networks of individuals in the United States.

  9. Uncertainty analysis of depth predictions from seismic reflection data using Bayesian statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelioudakis, Dimitrios G.; Hobbs, Richard W.; Caiado, Camila C. S.

    2018-06-01

    Estimating the depths of target horizons from seismic reflection data is an important task in exploration geophysics. To constrain these depths we need a reliable and accurate velocity model. Here, we build an optimum 2-D seismic reflection data processing flow focused on pre-stack deghosting filters and velocity model building and apply Bayesian methods, including Gaussian process emulation and Bayesian History Matching, to estimate the uncertainties of the depths of key horizons near the Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) borehole 258 (DSDP-258) located in the Mentelle Basin, southwest of Australia, and compare the results with the drilled core from that well. Following this strategy, the tie between the modelled and observed depths from DSDP-258 core was in accordance with the ±2σ posterior credibility intervals and predictions for depths to key horizons were made for the two new drill sites, adjacent to the existing borehole of the area. The probabilistic analysis allowed us to generate multiple realizations of pre-stack depth migrated images, these can be directly used to better constrain interpretation and identify potential risk at drill sites. The method will be applied to constrain the drilling targets for the upcoming International Ocean Discovery Program, leg 369.

  10. Statistical process control for serially correlated data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wieringa, Jakob Edo

    1999-01-01

    Statistical Process Control (SPC) aims at quality improvement through reduction of variation. The best known tool of SPC is the control chart. Over the years, the control chart has proved to be a successful practical technique for monitoring process measurements. However, its usefulness in practice

  11. Improving Instruction Using Statistical Process Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, Ronald C.; Messer, George H.

    1990-01-01

    Two applications of statistical process control to the process of education are described. Discussed are the use of prompt feedback to teachers and prompt feedback to students. A sample feedback form is provided. (CW)

  12. Quantifying Trace Amounts of Aggregates in Biopharmaceuticals Using Analytical Ultracentrifugation Sedimentation Velocity: Bayesian Analyses and F Statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wafer, Lucas; Kloczewiak, Marek; Luo, Yin

    2016-07-01

    Analytical ultracentrifugation-sedimentation velocity (AUC-SV) is often used to quantify high molar mass species (HMMS) present in biopharmaceuticals. Although these species are often present in trace quantities, they have received significant attention due to their potential immunogenicity. Commonly, AUC-SV data is analyzed as a diffusion-corrected, sedimentation coefficient distribution, or c(s), using SEDFIT to numerically solve Lamm-type equations. SEDFIT also utilizes maximum entropy or Tikhonov-Phillips regularization to further allow the user to determine relevant sample information, including the number of species present, their sedimentation coefficients, and their relative abundance. However, this methodology has several, often unstated, limitations, which may impact the final analysis of protein therapeutics. These include regularization-specific effects, artificial "ripple peaks," and spurious shifts in the sedimentation coefficients. In this investigation, we experimentally verified that an explicit Bayesian approach, as implemented in SEDFIT, can largely correct for these effects. Clear guidelines on how to implement this technique and interpret the resulting data, especially for samples containing micro-heterogeneity (e.g., differential glycosylation), are also provided. In addition, we demonstrated how the Bayesian approach can be combined with F statistics to draw more accurate conclusions and rigorously exclude artifactual peaks. Numerous examples with an antibody and an antibody-drug conjugate were used to illustrate the strengths and drawbacks of each technique.

  13. Bayesian integration and non-linear feedback control in a full-body motor task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Ian H; Fernandes, Hugo L; Vilares, Iris; Wei, Kunlin; Körding, Konrad P

    2009-12-01

    A large number of experiments have asked to what degree human reaching movements can be understood as being close to optimal in a statistical sense. However, little is known about whether these principles are relevant for other classes of movements. Here we analyzed movement in a task that is similar to surfing or snowboarding. Human subjects stand on a force plate that measures their center of pressure. This center of pressure affects the acceleration of a cursor that is displayed in a noisy fashion (as a cloud of dots) on a projection screen while the subject is incentivized to keep the cursor close to a fixed position. We find that salient aspects of observed behavior are well-described by optimal control models where a Bayesian estimation model (Kalman filter) is combined with an optimal controller (either a Linear-Quadratic-Regulator or Bang-bang controller). We find evidence that subjects integrate information over time taking into account uncertainty. However, behavior in this continuous steering task appears to be a highly non-linear function of the visual feedback. While the nervous system appears to implement Bayes-like mechanisms for a full-body, dynamic task, it may additionally take into account the specific costs and constraints of the task.

  14. Bayesian integration and non-linear feedback control in a full-body motor task.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian H Stevenson

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available A large number of experiments have asked to what degree human reaching movements can be understood as being close to optimal in a statistical sense. However, little is known about whether these principles are relevant for other classes of movements. Here we analyzed movement in a task that is similar to surfing or snowboarding. Human subjects stand on a force plate that measures their center of pressure. This center of pressure affects the acceleration of a cursor that is displayed in a noisy fashion (as a cloud of dots on a projection screen while the subject is incentivized to keep the cursor close to a fixed position. We find that salient aspects of observed behavior are well-described by optimal control models where a Bayesian estimation model (Kalman filter is combined with an optimal controller (either a Linear-Quadratic-Regulator or Bang-bang controller. We find evidence that subjects integrate information over time taking into account uncertainty. However, behavior in this continuous steering task appears to be a highly non-linear function of the visual feedback. While the nervous system appears to implement Bayes-like mechanisms for a full-body, dynamic task, it may additionally take into account the specific costs and constraints of the task.

  15. Nonparametric predictive inference in statistical process control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arts, G.R.J.; Coolen, F.P.A.; Laan, van der P.

    2000-01-01

    New methods for statistical process control are presented, where the inferences have a nonparametric predictive nature. We consider several problems in process control in terms of uncertainties about future observable random quantities, and we develop inferences for these random quantities hased on

  16. Nonparametric predictive inference in statistical process control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arts, G.R.J.; Coolen, F.P.A.; Laan, van der P.

    2004-01-01

    Statistical process control (SPC) is used to decide when to stop a process as confidence in the quality of the next item(s) is low. Information to specify a parametric model is not always available, and as SPC is of a predictive nature, we present a control chart developed using nonparametric

  17. Applicability of statistical process control techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schippers, W.A.J.

    1998-01-01

    This paper concerns the application of Process Control Techniques (PCTs) for the improvement of the technical performance of discrete production processes. Successful applications of these techniques, such as Statistical Process Control Techniques (SPC), can be found in the literature. However, some

  18. Bayesian Statistics and Uncertainty Quantification for Safety Boundary Analysis in Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yuning; Davies, Misty Dawn

    2014-01-01

    The analysis of a safety-critical system often requires detailed knowledge of safe regions and their highdimensional non-linear boundaries. We present a statistical approach to iteratively detect and characterize the boundaries, which are provided as parameterized shape candidates. Using methods from uncertainty quantification and active learning, we incrementally construct a statistical model from only few simulation runs and obtain statistically sound estimates of the shape parameters for safety boundaries.

  19. Variational Bayesian labeled multi-Bernoulli filter with unknown sensor noise statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiu Hao

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is difficult to build accurate model for measurement noise covariance in complex backgrounds. For the scenarios of unknown sensor noise variances, an adaptive multi-target tracking algorithm based on labeled random finite set and variational Bayesian (VB approximation is proposed. The variational approximation technique is introduced to the labeled multi-Bernoulli (LMB filter to jointly estimate the states of targets and sensor noise variances. Simulation results show that the proposed method can give unbiased estimation of cardinality and has better performance than the VB probability hypothesis density (VB-PHD filter and the VB cardinality balanced multi-target multi-Bernoulli (VB-CBMeMBer filter in harsh situations. The simulations also confirm the robustness of the proposed method against the time-varying noise variances. The computational complexity of proposed method is higher than the VB-PHD and VB-CBMeMBer in extreme cases, while the mean execution times of the three methods are close when targets are well separated.

  20. A Bayesian statistical method for quantifying model form uncertainty and two model combination methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Inseok; Grandhi, Ramana V.

    2014-01-01

    Apart from parametric uncertainty, model form uncertainty as well as prediction error may be involved in the analysis of engineering system. Model form uncertainty, inherently existing in selecting the best approximation from a model set cannot be ignored, especially when the predictions by competing models show significant differences. In this research, a methodology based on maximum likelihood estimation is presented to quantify model form uncertainty using the measured differences of experimental and model outcomes, and is compared with a fully Bayesian estimation to demonstrate its effectiveness. While a method called the adjustment factor approach is utilized to propagate model form uncertainty alone into the prediction of a system response, a method called model averaging is utilized to incorporate both model form uncertainty and prediction error into it. A numerical problem of concrete creep is used to demonstrate the processes for quantifying model form uncertainty and implementing the adjustment factor approach and model averaging. Finally, the presented methodology is applied to characterize the engineering benefits of a laser peening process

  1. Bayesian statistics applied to the location of the source of explosions at Stromboli Volcano, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saccorotti, G.; Chouet, B.; Martini, M.; Scarpa, R.

    1998-01-01

    We present a method for determining the location and spatial extent of the source of explosions at Stromboli Volcano, Italy, based on a Bayesian inversion of the slowness vector derived from frequency-slowness analyses of array data. The method searches for source locations that minimize the error between the expected and observed slowness vectors. For a given set of model parameters, the conditional probability density function of slowness vectors is approximated by a Gaussian distribution of expected errors. The method is tested with synthetics using a five-layer velocity model derived for the north flank of Stromboli and a smoothed velocity model derived from a power-law approximation of the layered structure. Application to data from Stromboli allows for a detailed examination of uncertainties in source location due to experimental errors and incomplete knowledge of the Earth model. Although the solutions are not constrained in the radial direction, excellent resolution is achieved in both transverse and depth directions. Under the assumption that the horizontal extent of the source does not exceed the crater dimension, the 90% confidence region in the estimate of the explosive source location corresponds to a small volume extending from a depth of about 100 m to a maximum depth of about 300 m beneath the active vents, with a maximum likelihood source region located in the 120- to 180-m-depth interval.

  2. Use of SAMC for Bayesian analysis of statistical models with intractable normalizing constants

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Ick Hoon; Liang, Faming

    2014-01-01

    Statistical inference for the models with intractable normalizing constants has attracted much attention. During the past two decades, various approximation- or simulation-based methods have been proposed for the problem, such as the Monte Carlo

  3. Statistical process control in nursing research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polit, Denise F; Chaboyer, Wendy

    2012-02-01

    In intervention studies in which randomization to groups is not possible, researchers typically use quasi-experimental designs. Time series designs are strong quasi-experimental designs but are seldom used, perhaps because of technical and analytic hurdles. Statistical process control (SPC) is an alternative analytic approach to testing hypotheses about intervention effects using data collected over time. SPC, like traditional statistical methods, is a tool for understanding variation and involves the construction of control charts that distinguish between normal, random fluctuations (common cause variation), and statistically significant special cause variation that can result from an innovation. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of SPC and to illustrate its use in a study of a nursing practice improvement intervention. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. A Dynamic Bayesian Network Model for the Production and Inventory Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Ji-Sun; Takazaki, Noriyuki; Lee, Tae-Hong; Kim, Jin-Il; Lee, Hee-Hyol

    In general, the production quantities and delivered goods are changed randomly and then the total stock is also changed randomly. This paper deals with the production and inventory control using the Dynamic Bayesian Network. Bayesian Network is a probabilistic model which represents the qualitative dependence between two or more random variables by the graph structure, and indicates the quantitative relations between individual variables by the conditional probability. The probabilistic distribution of the total stock is calculated through the propagation of the probability on the network. Moreover, an adjusting rule of the production quantities to maintain the probability of a lower limit and a ceiling of the total stock to certain values is shown.

  5. Statistical process control in wine industry using control cards

    OpenAIRE

    Dimitrieva, Evica; Atanasova-Pacemska, Tatjana; Pacemska, Sanja

    2013-01-01

    This paper is based on the research of the technological process of automatic filling of bottles of wine in winery in Stip, Republic of Macedonia. The statistical process control using statistical control card is created. The results and recommendations for improving the process are discussed.

  6. Net analyte signal based statistical quality control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Skibsted, E.T.S.; Boelens, H.F.M.; Westerhuis, J.A.; Smilde, A.K.; Broad, N.W.; Rees, D.R.; Witte, D.T.

    2005-01-01

    Net analyte signal statistical quality control (NAS-SQC) is a new methodology to perform multivariate product quality monitoring based on the net analyte signal approach. The main advantage of NAS-SQC is that the systematic variation in the product due to the analyte (or property) of interest is

  7. Statistical process control for residential treated wood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia K. Lebow; Timothy M. Young; Stan Lebow

    2017-01-01

    This paper is the first stage of a study that attempts to improve the process of manufacturing treated lumber through the use of statistical process control (SPC). Analysis of industrial and auditing agency data sets revealed there are differences between the industry and agency probability density functions (pdf) for normalized retention data. Resampling of batches of...

  8. Applied Behavior Analysis and Statistical Process Control?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, B. L.

    1995-01-01

    Incorporating statistical process control (SPC) methods into applied behavior analysis is discussed. It is claimed that SPC methods would likely reduce applied behavior analysts' intimate contacts with problems and would likely yield poor treatment and research decisions. Cases and data presented by Pfadt and Wheeler (1995) are cited as examples.…

  9. Bayesian analysis applied to statistical uncertainties of extreme response distributions of offshore wind turbines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cheng, P.W.; Kuik, van G.A.M.; Bussel, van G.J.W.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.

    2002-01-01

    Extreme response is an important design variable for wind turbines. The statistical uncertainties concerning the extreme response distribution are simulated here with data concerning physical characteristics obtained from measurements. The extreme responses are the flap moment at the blade root and

  10. A Bayesian Stepwise Discriminant Model for Predicting Risk Factors of Preterm Premature Rupture of Membranes: A Case-control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Li-Xia; Sun, Yang; Zhao, Hai; Zhu, Na; Sun, Xing-De; Jin, Xing; Zou, Ai-Min; Mi, Yang; Xu, Ji-Ru

    2017-10-20

    Preterm premature rupture of membrane (PPROM) can lead to serious consequences such as intrauterine infection, prolapse of the umbilical cord, and neonatal respiratory distress syndrome. Genital infection is a very important risk which closely related with PPROM. The preliminary study only made qualitative research on genital infection, but there was no deep and clear judgment about the effects of pathogenic bacteria. This study was to analyze the association of infections with PPROM in pregnant women in Shaanxi, China, and to establish Bayesian stepwise discriminant analysis to predict the incidence of PPROM. In training group, the 112 pregnant women with PPROM were enrolled in the case subgroup, and 108 normal pregnant women in the control subgroup using an unmatched case-control method. The sociodemographic characteristics of these participants were collected by face-to-face interviews. Vaginal excretions from each participant were sampled at 28-36+6 weeks of pregnancy using a sterile swab. DNA corresponding to Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Ureaplasma urealyticum (UU), Candida albicans, group B streptococci (GBS), herpes simplex virus-1 (HSV-1), and HSV-2 were detected in each participant by real-time polymerase chain reaction. A model of Bayesian discriminant analysis was established and then verified by a multicenter validation group that included 500 participants in the case subgroup and 500 participants in the control subgroup from five different hospitals in the Shaanxi province, respectively. The sociological characteristics were not significantly different between the case and control subgroups in both training and validation groups (all P > 0.05). In training group, the infection rates of UU (11.6% vs. 3.7%), CT (17.0% vs. 5.6%), and GBS (22.3% vs. 6.5%) showed statistically different between the case and control subgroups (all P case and control subgroups (P case and control subgroup were 84.1% and 86.8% in the training and validation groups, respectively

  11. Data Mining Foundations and Intelligent Paradigms Volume 2 Statistical, Bayesian, Time Series and other Theoretical Aspects

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Lakhmi

    2012-01-01

    Data mining is one of the most rapidly growing research areas in computer science and statistics. In Volume 2 of this three volume series, we have brought together contributions from some of the most prestigious researchers in theoretical data mining. Each of the chapters is self contained. Statisticians and applied scientists/ engineers will find this volume valuable. Additionally, it provides a sourcebook for graduate students interested in the current direction of research in data mining.

  12. Bayesian benefits with JASP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marsman, M.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2017-01-01

    We illustrate the Bayesian approach to data analysis using the newly developed statistical software program JASP. With JASP, researchers are able to take advantage of the benefits that the Bayesian framework has to offer in terms of parameter estimation and hypothesis testing. The Bayesian

  13. Radiographic rejection index using statistical process control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savi, M.B.M.B.; Camozzato, T.S.C.; Soares, F.A.P.; Nandi, D.M.

    2015-01-01

    The Repeat Analysis Index (IRR) is one of the items contained in the Quality Control Program dictated by brazilian law of radiological protection and should be performed frequently, at least every six months. In order to extract more and better information of IRR, this study presents the Statistical Quality Control applied to reject rate through Statistical Process Control (Control Chart for Attributes ρ - GC) and the Pareto Chart (GP). Data collection was performed for 9 months and the last four months of collection was given on a daily basis. The Limits of Control (LC) were established and Minitab 16 software used to create the charts. IRR obtained for the period was corresponding to 8.8% ± 2,3% and the generated charts analyzed. Relevant information such as orders for X-ray equipment and processors were crossed to identify the relationship between the points that exceeded the control limits and the state of equipment at the time. The GC demonstrated ability to predict equipment failures, as well as the GP showed clearly what causes are recurrent in IRR. (authors) [pt

  14. The Bayesian statistical decision theory applied to the optimization of generating set maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Procaccia, H.; Cordier, R.; Muller, S.

    1994-11-01

    The difficulty in RCM methodology is the allocation of a new periodicity of preventive maintenance on one equipment when a critical failure has been identified: until now this new allocation has been based on the engineer's judgment, and one must wait for a full cycle of feedback experience before to validate it. Statistical decision theory could be a more rational alternative for the optimization of preventive maintenance periodicity. This methodology has been applied to inspection and maintenance optimization of cylinders of diesel generator engines of 900 MW nuclear plants, and has shown that previous preventive maintenance periodicity can be extended. (authors). 8 refs., 5 figs

  15. Optimal speech motor control and token-to-token variability: a Bayesian modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patri, Jean-François; Diard, Julien; Perrier, Pascal

    2015-12-01

    The remarkable capacity of the speech motor system to adapt to various speech conditions is due to an excess of degrees of freedom, which enables producing similar acoustical properties with different sets of control strategies. To explain how the central nervous system selects one of the possible strategies, a common approach, in line with optimal motor control theories, is to model speech motor planning as the solution of an optimality problem based on cost functions. Despite the success of this approach, one of its drawbacks is the intrinsic contradiction between the concept of optimality and the observed experimental intra-speaker token-to-token variability. The present paper proposes an alternative approach by formulating feedforward optimal control in a probabilistic Bayesian modeling framework. This is illustrated by controlling a biomechanical model of the vocal tract for speech production and by comparing it with an existing optimal control model (GEPPETO). The essential elements of this optimal control model are presented first. From them the Bayesian model is constructed in a progressive way. Performance of the Bayesian model is evaluated based on computer simulations and compared to the optimal control model. This approach is shown to be appropriate for solving the speech planning problem while accounting for variability in a principled way.

  16. Statistical quality control a loss minimization approach

    CERN Document Server

    Trietsch, Dan

    1999-01-01

    While many books on quality espouse the Taguchi loss function, they do not examine its impact on statistical quality control (SQC). But using the Taguchi loss function sheds new light on questions relating to SQC and calls for some changes. This book covers SQC in a way that conforms with the need to minimize loss. Subjects often not covered elsewhere include: (i) measurements, (ii) determining how many points to sample to obtain reliable control charts (for which purpose a new graphic tool, diffidence charts, is introduced), (iii) the connection between process capability and tolerances, (iv)

  17. Bayesian networks modeling for thermal error of numerical control machine tools

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xin-hua YAO; Jian-zhong FU; Zi-chen CHEN

    2008-01-01

    The interaction between the heat source location,its intensity,thermal expansion coefficient,the machine system configuration and the running environment creates complex thermal behavior of a machine tool,and also makes thermal error prediction difficult.To address this issue,a novel prediction method for machine tool thermal error based on Bayesian networks (BNs) was presented.The method described causal relationships of factors inducing thermal deformation by graph theory and estimated the thermal error by Bayesian statistical techniques.Due to the effective combination of domain knowledge and sampled data,the BN method could adapt to the change of running state of machine,and obtain satisfactory prediction accuracy.Ex-periments on spindle thermal deformation were conducted to evaluate the modeling performance.Experimental results indicate that the BN method performs far better than the least squares(LS)analysis in terms of modeling estimation accuracy.

  18. Application of a Bayesian algorithm for the Statistical Energy model updating of a railway coach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sadri, Mehran; Brunskog, Jonas; Younesian, Davood

    2016-01-01

    into account based on published data on comparison between experimental and theoretical results, so that the variance of the theory is estimated. The Monte Carlo Metropolis Hastings algorithm is employed to estimate the modified values of the parameters. It is shown that the algorithm can be efficiently used......The classical statistical energy analysis (SEA) theory is a common approach for vibroacoustic analysis of coupled complex structures, being efficient to predict high-frequency noise and vibration of engineering systems. There are however some limitations in applying the conventional SEA...... the performance of the proposed strategy, the SEA model updating of a railway passenger coach is carried out. First, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to select the most sensitive parameters of the SEA model. For the selected parameters of the model, prior probability density functions are then taken...

  19. A Bayesian sequential design using alpha spending function to control type I error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Han; Yu, Qingzhao

    2017-10-01

    We propose in this article a Bayesian sequential design using alpha spending functions to control the overall type I error in phase III clinical trials. We provide algorithms to calculate critical values, power, and sample sizes for the proposed design. Sensitivity analysis is implemented to check the effects from different prior distributions, and conservative priors are recommended. We compare the power and actual sample sizes of the proposed Bayesian sequential design with different alpha spending functions through simulations. We also compare the power of the proposed method with frequentist sequential design using the same alpha spending function. Simulations show that, at the same sample size, the proposed method provides larger power than the corresponding frequentist sequential design. It also has larger power than traditional Bayesian sequential design which sets equal critical values for all interim analyses. When compared with other alpha spending functions, O'Brien-Fleming alpha spending function has the largest power and is the most conservative in terms that at the same sample size, the null hypothesis is the least likely to be rejected at early stage of clinical trials. And finally, we show that adding a step of stop for futility in the Bayesian sequential design can reduce the overall type I error and reduce the actual sample sizes.

  20. Search for transient ultralight dark matter signatures with networks of precision measurement devices using a Bayesian statistics method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, B. M.; Blewitt, G.; Dailey, C.; Derevianko, A.

    2018-04-01

    We analyze the prospects of employing a distributed global network of precision measurement devices as a dark matter and exotic physics observatory. In particular, we consider the atomic clocks of the global positioning system (GPS), consisting of a constellation of 32 medium-Earth orbit satellites equipped with either Cs or Rb microwave clocks and a number of Earth-based receiver stations, some of which employ highly-stable H-maser atomic clocks. High-accuracy timing data is available for almost two decades. By analyzing the satellite and terrestrial atomic clock data, it is possible to search for transient signatures of exotic physics, such as "clumpy" dark matter and dark energy, effectively transforming the GPS constellation into a 50 000 km aperture sensor array. Here we characterize the noise of the GPS satellite atomic clocks, describe the search method based on Bayesian statistics, and test the method using simulated clock data. We present the projected discovery reach using our method, and demonstrate that it can surpass the existing constrains by several order of magnitude for certain models. Our method is not limited in scope to GPS or atomic clock networks, and can also be applied to other networks of precision measurement devices.

  1. Exploring neighborhood inequality in female breast cancer incidence in Tehran using Bayesian spatial models and a spatial scan statistic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erfan Ayubi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to explore the spatial pattern of female breast cancer (BC incidence at the neighborhood level in Tehran, Iran. METHODS The present study included all registered incident cases of female BC from March 2008 to March 2011. The raw standardized incidence ratio (SIR of BC for each neighborhood was estimated by comparing observed cases relative to expected cases. The estimated raw SIRs were smoothed by a Besag, York, and Mollie spatial model and the spatial empirical Bayesian method. The purely spatial scan statistic was used to identify spatial clusters. RESULTS There were 4,175 incident BC cases in the study area from 2008 to 2011, of which 3,080 were successfully geocoded to the neighborhood level. Higher than expected rates of BC were found in neighborhoods located in northern and central Tehran, whereas lower rates appeared in southern areas. The most likely cluster of higher than expected BC incidence involved neighborhoods in districts 3 and 6, with an observed-to-expected ratio of 3.92 (p<0.001, whereas the most likely cluster of lower than expected rates involved neighborhoods in districts 17, 18, and 19, with an observed-to-expected ratio of 0.05 (p<0.001. CONCLUSIONS Neighborhood-level inequality in the incidence of BC exists in Tehran. These findings can serve as a basis for resource allocation and preventive strategies in at-risk areas.

  2. The statistical process control methods - SPC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Floreková Ľubica

    1998-03-01

    Full Text Available Methods of statistical evaluation of quality – SPC (item 20 of the documentation system of quality control of ISO norm, series 900 of various processes, products and services belong amongst basic qualitative methods that enable us to analyse and compare data pertaining to various quantitative parameters. Also they enable, based on the latter, to propose suitable interventions with the aim of improving these processes, products and services. Theoretical basis and applicatibily of the principles of the: - diagnostics of a cause and effects, - Paret analysis and Lorentz curve, - number distribution and frequency curves of random variable distribution, - Shewhart regulation charts, are presented in the contribution.

  3. Memory-type control charts in statistical process control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abbas, N.

    2012-01-01

    Control chart is the most important statistical tool to manage the business processes. It is a graph of measurements on a quality characteristic of the process on the vertical axis plotted against time on the horizontal axis. The graph is completed with control limits that cause variation mark. Once

  4. Statistical Process Control for KSC Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Roger G.; Delgado, Hector; Tilley, Randy

    1996-01-01

    The 1996 Summer Faculty Fellowship Program and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) served as the basis for a research effort into statistical process control for KSC processing. The effort entailed several tasks and goals. The first was to develop a customized statistical process control (SPC) course for the Safety and Mission Assurance Trends Analysis Group. The actual teaching of this course took place over several weeks. In addition, an Internet version of the same course complete with animation and video excerpts from the course when it was taught at KSC was developed. The application of SPC to shuttle processing took up the rest of the summer research project. This effort entailed the evaluation of SPC use at KSC, both present and potential, due to the change in roles for NASA and the Single Flight Operations Contractor (SFOC). Individual consulting on SPC use was accomplished as well as an evaluation of SPC software for KSC use in the future. A final accomplishment of the orientation of the author to NASA changes, terminology, data format, and new NASA task definitions will allow future consultation when the needs arise.

  5. Statistical process control for electron beam monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Tarjuelo, Juan; Luquero-Llopis, Naika; García-Mollá, Rafael; Quirós-Higueras, Juan David; Bouché-Babiloni, Ana; Juan-Senabre, Xavier Jordi; de Marco-Blancas, Noelia; Ferrer-Albiach, Carlos; Santos-Serra, Agustín

    2015-07-01

    To assess the electron beam monitoring statistical process control (SPC) in linear accelerator (linac) daily quality control. We present a long-term record of our measurements and evaluate which SPC-led conditions are feasible for maintaining control. We retrieved our linac beam calibration, symmetry, and flatness daily records for all electron beam energies from January 2008 to December 2013, and retrospectively studied how SPC could have been applied and which of its features could be used in the future. A set of adjustment interventions designed to maintain these parameters under control was also simulated. All phase I data was under control. The dose plots were characterized by rising trends followed by steep drops caused by our attempts to re-center the linac beam calibration. Where flatness and symmetry trends were detected they were less-well defined. The process capability ratios ranged from 1.6 to 9.3 at a 2% specification level. Simulated interventions ranged from 2% to 34% of the total number of measurement sessions. We also noted that if prospective SPC had been applied it would have met quality control specifications. SPC can be used to assess the inherent variability of our electron beam monitoring system. It can also indicate whether a process is capable of maintaining electron parameters under control with respect to established specifications by using a daily checking device, but this is not practical unless a method to establish direct feedback from the device to the linac can be devised. Copyright © 2015 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Paleotempestological chronology developed from gas ion source AMS analysis of carbonates determined through real-time Bayesian statistical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, D. J.; Rosenheim, B. E.; Roberts, M. L.; Burton, J. R.; Donnelly, J. P.; Woodruff, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    Is a small quantity of high-precision ages more robust than a higher quantity of lower-precision ages for sediment core chronologies? AMS Radiocarbon ages have been available to researchers for several decades now, and precision of the technique has continued to improve. Analysis and time cost is high, though, and projects are often limited in terms of the number of dates that can be used to develop a chronology. The Gas Ion Source at the National Ocean Sciences Accelerator Mass Spectrometry Facility (NOSAMS), while providing lower-precision (uncertainty of order 100 14C y for a sample), is significantly less expensive and far less time consuming than conventional age dating and offers the unique opportunity for large amounts of ages. Here we couple two approaches, one analytical and one statistical, to investigate the utility of an age model comprised of these lower-precision ages for paleotempestology. We use a gas ion source interfaced to a gas-bench type device to generate radiocarbon dates approximately every 5 minutes while determining the order of sample analysis using the published Bayesian accumulation histories for deposits (Bacon). During two day-long sessions, several dates were obtained from carbonate shells in living position in a sediment core comprised of sapropel gel from Mangrove Lake, Bermuda. Samples were prepared where large shells were available, and the order of analysis was determined by the depth with the highest uncertainty according to Bacon. We present the results of these analyses as well as a prognosis for a future where such age models can be constructed from many dates that are quickly obtained relative to conventional radiocarbon dates. This technique currently is limited to carbonates, but development of a system for organic material dating is underway. We will demonstrate the extent to which sacrificing some analytical precision in favor of more dates improves age models.

  7. Control cards as a statistical quality control resource

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandar Živan Drenovac

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 This paper proves that applying of statistical methods can significantly contribute increasing of products and services quality, as well as increasing of institutions rating. Determining of optimal, apropos anticipatory and limitary values, is based on sample`s statistical analyze. Control cards represent very confident instrument, which is simple for use and efficient for control of process, by which process is maintained in set borders. Thus, control cards can be applied in quality control of procesess of weapons and military equipment production, maintenance of technical systems, as well as for seting of standards and increasing of quality level for many other activities.

  8. Bayesian methods for data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Carlin, Bradley P.

    2009-01-01

    Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors

  9. Statistical process control for alpha spectroscopy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, W; Majoras, R E [Oxford Instruments, Inc. P.O. Box 2560, Oak Ridge TN 37830 (United States); Joo, I O; Seymour, R S [Accu-Labs Research, Inc. 4663 Table Mountain Drive, Golden CO 80403 (United States)

    1995-10-01

    Statistical process control(SPC) allows for the identification of problems in alpha spectroscopy processes before they occur, unlike standard laboratory Q C which only identifies problems after a process fails. SPC tools that are directly applicable to alpha spectroscopy include individual X-charts and X-bar charts, process capability plots, and scatter plots. Most scientists are familiar with the concepts the and methods employed by SPC. These tools allow analysis of process bias, precision, accuracy and reproducibility as well as process capability. Parameters affecting instrument performance are monitored and analyzed using SPC methods. These instrument parameters can also be compared to sampling, preparation, measurement, and analysis Q C parameters permitting the evaluation of cause effect relationships. Three examples of SPC, as applied to alpha spectroscopy , are presented. The first example investigates background contamination using averaging to show trends quickly. A second example demonstrates how SPC can identify sample processing problems, analyzing both how and why this problem occurred. A third example illustrates how SPC can predict when an alpha spectroscopy process is going to fail. This allows for an orderly and timely shutdown of the process to perform preventative maintenance, avoiding the need to repeat costly sample analyses. 7 figs., 2 tabs.

  10. Statistical process control for alpha spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, W.; Majoras, R.E.; Joo, I.O.; Seymour, R.S.

    1995-01-01

    Statistical process control(SPC) allows for the identification of problems in alpha spectroscopy processes before they occur, unlike standard laboratory Q C which only identifies problems after a process fails. SPC tools that are directly applicable to alpha spectroscopy include individual X-charts and X-bar charts, process capability plots, and scatter plots. Most scientists are familiar with the concepts the and methods employed by SPC. These tools allow analysis of process bias, precision, accuracy and reproducibility as well as process capability. Parameters affecting instrument performance are monitored and analyzed using SPC methods. These instrument parameters can also be compared to sampling, preparation, measurement, and analysis Q C parameters permitting the evaluation of cause effect relationships. Three examples of SPC, as applied to alpha spectroscopy , are presented. The first example investigates background contamination using averaging to show trends quickly. A second example demonstrates how SPC can identify sample processing problems, analyzing both how and why this problem occurred. A third example illustrates how SPC can predict when an alpha spectroscopy process is going to fail. This allows for an orderly and timely shutdown of the process to perform preventative maintenance, avoiding the need to repeat costly sample analyses. 7 figs., 2 tabs

  11. Statistical process control for radiotherapy quality assurance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pawlicki, Todd; Whitaker, Matthew; Boyer, Arthur L.

    2005-01-01

    Every quality assurance process uncovers random and systematic errors. These errors typically consist of many small random errors and a very few number of large errors that dominate the result. Quality assurance practices in radiotherapy do not adequately differentiate between these two sources of error. The ability to separate these types of errors would allow the dominant source(s) of error to be efficiently detected and addressed. In this work, statistical process control is applied to quality assurance in radiotherapy for the purpose of setting action thresholds that differentiate between random and systematic errors. The theoretical development and implementation of process behavior charts are described. We report on a pilot project is which these techniques are applied to daily output and flatness/symmetry quality assurance for a 10 MV photon beam in our department. This clinical case was followed over 52 days. As part of our investigation, we found that action thresholds set using process behavior charts were able to identify systematic changes in our daily quality assurance process. This is in contrast to action thresholds set using the standard deviation, which did not identify the same systematic changes in the process. The process behavior thresholds calculated from a subset of the data detected a 2% change in the process whereas with a standard deviation calculation, no change was detected. Medical physicists must make decisions on quality assurance data as it is acquired. Process behavior charts help decide when to take action and when to acquire more data before making a change in the process

  12. Probabilistic interpretation of command and control signals: Bayesian updating of the probability of nuclear attack

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pate-Cornell, M.Elisabeth; Fischbeck, Paul S.

    1995-01-01

    A warning system such as the Command, Control, Communication, and Intelligence system (C 3 I) for the United States nuclear forces operates on the basis of various sources of information among which are signals from sensors. A fundamental problem in the use of such signals is that these sensors provide only imperfect information. Bayesian probability, defined as a degree of belief in the possibility of each event, is therefore a key concept in the logical treatment of the signals. However, the base of evidence for estimation of these probabilities may be small and, therefore, the results of the updating (posterior probabilities of attack) may also be uncertain. In this paper, we examine the case where uncertainties hinge upon the existence of several possible underlying hypotheses (or models), and where the decision-maker attributes a different probability of attack to each of these fundamental hypotheses. We present a two-stage Bayesian updating process, first of the probabilities of the fundamental hypotheses, then of the probabilities of attack conditional on each hypothesis, given a positive signal from the C 3 I. We illustrate the method in the discrete case where there are only two possible fundamental hypotheses, and in the case of a continuous set of hypotheses. We discuss briefly the implications of the results for decision-making. The method can be generalized to other warning systems with imperfect signals, when the prior probability of the event of interest is uncertain

  13. Applying Statistical Process Quality Control Methodology to Educational Settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumberg, Carol Joyce

    A subset of Statistical Process Control (SPC) methodology known as Control Charting is introduced. SPC methodology is a collection of graphical and inferential statistics techniques used to study the progress of phenomena over time. The types of control charts covered are the null X (mean), R (Range), X (individual observations), MR (moving…

  14. Applying Statistical Process Control to Clinical Data: An Illustration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfadt, Al; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Principles of statistical process control are applied to a clinical setting through the use of control charts to detect changes, as part of treatment planning and clinical decision-making processes. The logic of control chart analysis is derived from principles of statistical inference. Sample charts offer examples of evaluating baselines and…

  15. Can a significance test be genuinely Bayesian?

    OpenAIRE

    Pereira, Carlos A. de B.; Stern, Julio Michael; Wechsler, Sergio

    2008-01-01

    The Full Bayesian Significance Test, FBST, is extensively reviewed. Its test statistic, a genuine Bayesian measure of evidence, is discussed in detail. Its behavior in some problems of statistical inference like testing for independence in contingency tables is discussed.

  16. A novel variational Bayes multiple locus Z-statistic for genome-wide association studies with Bayesian model averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logsdon, Benjamin A.; Carty, Cara L.; Reiner, Alexander P.; Dai, James Y.; Kooperberg, Charles

    2012-01-01

    Motivation: For many complex traits, including height, the majority of variants identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have small effects, leaving a significant proportion of the heritable variation unexplained. Although many penalized multiple regression methodologies have been proposed to increase the power to detect associations for complex genetic architectures, they generally lack mechanisms for false-positive control and diagnostics for model over-fitting. Our methodology is the first penalized multiple regression approach that explicitly controls Type I error rates and provide model over-fitting diagnostics through a novel normally distributed statistic defined for every marker within the GWAS, based on results from a variational Bayes spike regression algorithm. Results: We compare the performance of our method to the lasso and single marker analysis on simulated data and demonstrate that our approach has superior performance in terms of power and Type I error control. In addition, using the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) SNP Health Association Resource (SHARe) GWAS of African-Americans, we show that our method has power to detect additional novel associations with body height. These findings replicate by reaching a stringent cutoff of marginal association in a larger cohort. Availability: An R-package, including an implementation of our variational Bayes spike regression (vBsr) algorithm, is available at http://kooperberg.fhcrc.org/soft.html. Contact: blogsdon@fhcrc.org Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:22563072

  17. Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia

    2015-01-01

    Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on

  18. Bayesian Networks to Compare Pest Control Interventions on Commodities Along Agricultural Production Chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, J; Leach, A W; Johnson, S; Tu, D M; Nhu, D T; Anh, N T; Quinlan, M M; Whittle, P J L; Mengersen, K; Mumford, J D

    2018-02-01

    The production of an agricultural commodity involves a sequence of processes: planting/growing, harvesting, sorting/grading, postharvest treatment, packing, and exporting. A Bayesian network has been developed to represent the level of potential infestation of an agricultural commodity by a specified pest along an agricultural production chain. It reflects the dependency of this infestation on the predicted level of pest challenge, the anticipated susceptibility of the commodity to the pest, the level of impact from pest control measures as designed, and any variation from that due to uncertainty in measure efficacy. The objective of this Bayesian network is to facilitate agreement between national governments of the exporters and importers on a set of phytosanitary measures to meet specific phytosanitary measure requirements to achieve target levels of protection against regulated pests. The model can be used to compare the performance of different combinations of measures under different scenarios of pest challenge, making use of available measure performance data. A case study is presented using a model developed for a fruit fly pest on dragon fruit in Vietnam; the model parameters and results are illustrative and do not imply a particular level of fruit fly infestation of these exports; rather, they provide the most likely, alternative, or worst-case scenarios of the impact of measures. As a means to facilitate agreement for trade, the model provides a framework to support communication between exporters and importers about any differences in perceptions of the risk reduction achieved by pest control measures deployed during the commodity production chain. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. IZI: INFERRING THE GAS PHASE METALLICITY (Z) AND IONIZATION PARAMETER (q) OF IONIZED NEBULAE USING BAYESIAN STATISTICS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanc, Guillermo A.; Kewley, Lisa; Vogt, Frédéric P. A.; Dopita, Michael A.

    2015-01-01

    We present a new method for inferring the metallicity (Z) and ionization parameter (q) of H II regions and star-forming galaxies using strong nebular emission lines (SELs). We use Bayesian inference to derive the joint and marginalized posterior probability density functions for Z and q given a set of observed line fluxes and an input photoionization model. Our approach allows the use of arbitrary sets of SELs and the inclusion of flux upper limits. The method provides a self-consistent way of determining the physical conditions of ionized nebulae that is not tied to the arbitrary choice of a particular SEL diagnostic and uses all the available information. Unlike theoretically calibrated SEL diagnostics, the method is flexible and not tied to a particular photoionization model. We describe our algorithm, validate it against other methods, and present a tool that implements it called IZI. Using a sample of nearby extragalactic H II regions, we assess the performance of commonly used SEL abundance diagnostics. We also use a sample of 22 local H II regions having both direct and recombination line (RL) oxygen abundance measurements in the literature to study discrepancies in the abundance scale between different methods. We find that oxygen abundances derived through Bayesian inference using currently available photoionization models in the literature can be in good (∼30%) agreement with RL abundances, although some models perform significantly better than others. We also confirm that abundances measured using the direct method are typically ∼0.2 dex lower than both RL and photoionization-model-based abundances

  20. IZI: INFERRING THE GAS PHASE METALLICITY (Z) AND IONIZATION PARAMETER (q) OF IONIZED NEBULAE USING BAYESIAN STATISTICS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanc, Guillermo A. [Observatories of the Carnegie Institution for Science, 813 Santa Barbara Street, Pasadena, CA 91101 (United States); Kewley, Lisa; Vogt, Frédéric P. A.; Dopita, Michael A. [Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Australian National University, Cotter Road, Weston, ACT 2611 (Australia)

    2015-01-10

    We present a new method for inferring the metallicity (Z) and ionization parameter (q) of H II regions and star-forming galaxies using strong nebular emission lines (SELs). We use Bayesian inference to derive the joint and marginalized posterior probability density functions for Z and q given a set of observed line fluxes and an input photoionization model. Our approach allows the use of arbitrary sets of SELs and the inclusion of flux upper limits. The method provides a self-consistent way of determining the physical conditions of ionized nebulae that is not tied to the arbitrary choice of a particular SEL diagnostic and uses all the available information. Unlike theoretically calibrated SEL diagnostics, the method is flexible and not tied to a particular photoionization model. We describe our algorithm, validate it against other methods, and present a tool that implements it called IZI. Using a sample of nearby extragalactic H II regions, we assess the performance of commonly used SEL abundance diagnostics. We also use a sample of 22 local H II regions having both direct and recombination line (RL) oxygen abundance measurements in the literature to study discrepancies in the abundance scale between different methods. We find that oxygen abundances derived through Bayesian inference using currently available photoionization models in the literature can be in good (∼30%) agreement with RL abundances, although some models perform significantly better than others. We also confirm that abundances measured using the direct method are typically ∼0.2 dex lower than both RL and photoionization-model-based abundances.

  1. Using Statistical Process Control to Enhance Student Progression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanna, Mark D.; Raichura, Nilesh; Bernardes, Ednilson

    2012-01-01

    Public interest in educational outcomes has markedly increased in the most recent decade; however, quality management and statistical process control have not deeply penetrated the management of academic institutions. This paper presents results of an attempt to use Statistical Process Control (SPC) to identify a key impediment to continuous…

  2. Using polarimetric radar observations and probabilistic inference to develop the Bayesian Observationally-constrained Statistical-physical Scheme (BOSS), a novel microphysical parameterization framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Lier-Walqui, M.; Morrison, H.; Kumjian, M. R.; Prat, O. P.

    2016-12-01

    Microphysical parameterization schemes have reached an impressive level of sophistication: numerous prognostic hydrometeor categories, and either size-resolved (bin) particle size distributions, or multiple prognostic moments of the size distribution. Yet, uncertainty in model representation of microphysical processes and the effects of microphysics on numerical simulation of weather has not shown a improvement commensurate with the advanced sophistication of these schemes. We posit that this may be caused by unconstrained assumptions of these schemes, such as ad-hoc parameter value choices and structural uncertainties (e.g. choice of a particular form for the size distribution). We present work on development and observational constraint of a novel microphysical parameterization approach, the Bayesian Observationally-constrained Statistical-physical Scheme (BOSS), which seeks to address these sources of uncertainty. Our framework avoids unnecessary a priori assumptions, and instead relies on observations to provide probabilistic constraint of the scheme structure and sensitivities to environmental and microphysical conditions. We harness the rich microphysical information content of polarimetric radar observations to develop and constrain BOSS within a Bayesian inference framework using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler (see Kumjian et al., this meeting for details on development of an associated polarimetric forward operator). Our work shows how knowledge of microphysical processes is provided by polarimetric radar observations of diverse weather conditions, and which processes remain highly uncertain, even after considering observations.

  3. Bayesian analysis of systems with random chemical composition: renormalization-group approach to Dirichlet distributions and the statistical theory of dilution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlad, Marcel Ovidiu; Tsuchiya, Masa; Oefner, Peter; Ross, John

    2002-01-01

    We investigate the statistical properties of systems with random chemical composition and try to obtain a theoretical derivation of the self-similar Dirichlet distribution, which is used empirically in molecular biology, environmental chemistry, and geochemistry. We consider a system made up of many chemical species and assume that the statistical distribution of the abundance of each chemical species in the system is the result of a succession of a variable number of random dilution events, which can be described by using the renormalization-group theory. A Bayesian approach is used for evaluating the probability density of the chemical composition of the system in terms of the probability densities of the abundances of the different chemical species. We show that for large cascades of dilution events, the probability density of the composition vector of the system is given by a self-similar probability density of the Dirichlet type. We also give an alternative formal derivation for the Dirichlet law based on the maximum entropy approach, by assuming that the average values of the chemical potentials of different species, expressed in terms of molar fractions, are constant. Although the maximum entropy approach leads formally to the Dirichlet distribution, it does not clarify the physical origin of the Dirichlet statistics and has serious limitations. The random theory of dilution provides a physical picture for the emergence of Dirichlet statistics and makes it possible to investigate its validity range. We discuss the implications of our theory in molecular biology, geochemistry, and environmental science.

  4. Investigating the collision energy dependence of η /s in the beam energy scan at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider using Bayesian statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auvinen, Jussi; Bernhard, Jonah E.; Bass, Steffen A.; Karpenko, Iurii

    2018-04-01

    We determine the probability distributions of the shear viscosity over the entropy density ratio η /s in the quark-gluon plasma formed in Au + Au collisions at √{sN N}=19.6 ,39 , and 62.4 GeV , using Bayesian inference and Gaussian process emulators for a model-to-data statistical analysis that probes the full input parameter space of a transport + viscous hydrodynamics hybrid model. We find the most likely value of η /s to be larger at smaller √{sN N}, although the uncertainties still allow for a constant value between 0.10 and 0.15 for the investigated collision energy range.

  5. Bayesian Statistical Mechanics: Entropy-Enthalpy Compensation and Universal Equation of State at the Tip of Pen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgeni B. Starikov

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This work has shown the way to put the formal statistical-mechanical basement under the hotly debated notion of enthalpy-entropy compensation. The possibility of writing down the universal equation of state based upon the statistical mechanics is discussed here.

  6. The accuracy and clinical feasibility of a new Bayesian-based closed-loop control system for propofol administration using the bispectral index as a controlled variable

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Smet, Tom; Struys, Michel M. R. F.; Neckebroek, Martine M.; Van den Hauwe, Kristof; Bonte, Sjoert; Mortier, Eric P.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Closed-loop control of the hypnotic component of anesthesia has been proposed in an attempt to optimize drug delivery. Here, we introduce a newly developed Bayesian-based, patient-individualized, model-based, adaptive control method for bispectral index (BIS) guided propofol infusion

  7. Bayesian computation with R

    CERN Document Server

    Albert, Jim

    2009-01-01

    There has been a dramatic growth in the development and application of Bayesian inferential methods. Some of this growth is due to the availability of powerful simulation-based algorithms to summarize posterior distributions. There has been also a growing interest in the use of the system R for statistical analyses. R's open source nature, free availability, and large number of contributor packages have made R the software of choice for many statisticians in education and industry. Bayesian Computation with R introduces Bayesian modeling by the use of computation using the R language. The earl

  8. Using Statistical Process Control Methods to Classify Pilot Mental Workloads

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kudo, Terence

    2001-01-01

    .... These include cardiac, ocular, respiratory, and brain activity measures. The focus of this effort is to apply statistical process control methodology on different psychophysiological features in an attempt to classify pilot mental workload...

  9. Bayesian Networks An Introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Koski, Timo

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include:.: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications.; A detailed description of learni

  10. Robust Control Methods for On-Line Statistical Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Capobianco Enrico

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The issue of controlling that data processing in an experiment results not affected by the presence of outliers is relevant for statistical control and learning studies. Learning schemes should thus be tested for their capacity of handling outliers in the observed training set so to achieve reliable estimates with respect to the crucial bias and variance aspects. We describe possible ways of endowing neural networks with statistically robust properties by defining feasible error criteria. It is convenient to cast neural nets in state space representations and apply both Kalman filter and stochastic approximation procedures in order to suggest statistically robustified solutions for on-line learning.

  11. No control genes required: Bayesian analysis of qRT-PCR data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail V Matz

    Full Text Available Model-based analysis of data from quantitative reverse-transcription PCR (qRT-PCR is potentially more powerful and versatile than traditional methods. Yet existing model-based approaches cannot properly deal with the higher sampling variances associated with low-abundant targets, nor do they provide a natural way to incorporate assumptions about the stability of control genes directly into the model-fitting process.In our method, raw qPCR data are represented as molecule counts, and described using generalized linear mixed models under Poisson-lognormal error. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC algorithm is used to sample from the joint posterior distribution over all model parameters, thereby estimating the effects of all experimental factors on the expression of every gene. The Poisson-based model allows for the correct specification of the mean-variance relationship of the PCR amplification process, and can also glean information from instances of no amplification (zero counts. Our method is very flexible with respect to control genes: any prior knowledge about the expected degree of their stability can be directly incorporated into the model. Yet the method provides sensible answers without such assumptions, or even in the complete absence of control genes. We also present a natural Bayesian analogue of the "classic" analysis, which uses standard data pre-processing steps (logarithmic transformation and multi-gene normalization but estimates all gene expression changes jointly within a single model. The new methods are considerably more flexible and powerful than the standard delta-delta Ct analysis based on pairwise t-tests.Our methodology expands the applicability of the relative-quantification analysis protocol all the way to the lowest-abundance targets, and provides a novel opportunity to analyze qRT-PCR data without making any assumptions concerning target stability. These procedures have been implemented as the MCMC.qpcr package in R.

  12. No control genes required: Bayesian analysis of qRT-PCR data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matz, Mikhail V; Wright, Rachel M; Scott, James G

    2013-01-01

    Model-based analysis of data from quantitative reverse-transcription PCR (qRT-PCR) is potentially more powerful and versatile than traditional methods. Yet existing model-based approaches cannot properly deal with the higher sampling variances associated with low-abundant targets, nor do they provide a natural way to incorporate assumptions about the stability of control genes directly into the model-fitting process. In our method, raw qPCR data are represented as molecule counts, and described using generalized linear mixed models under Poisson-lognormal error. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is used to sample from the joint posterior distribution over all model parameters, thereby estimating the effects of all experimental factors on the expression of every gene. The Poisson-based model allows for the correct specification of the mean-variance relationship of the PCR amplification process, and can also glean information from instances of no amplification (zero counts). Our method is very flexible with respect to control genes: any prior knowledge about the expected degree of their stability can be directly incorporated into the model. Yet the method provides sensible answers without such assumptions, or even in the complete absence of control genes. We also present a natural Bayesian analogue of the "classic" analysis, which uses standard data pre-processing steps (logarithmic transformation and multi-gene normalization) but estimates all gene expression changes jointly within a single model. The new methods are considerably more flexible and powerful than the standard delta-delta Ct analysis based on pairwise t-tests. Our methodology expands the applicability of the relative-quantification analysis protocol all the way to the lowest-abundance targets, and provides a novel opportunity to analyze qRT-PCR data without making any assumptions concerning target stability. These procedures have been implemented as the MCMC.qpcr package in R.

  13. Bayesian Penalized Likelihood Image Reconstruction (Q.Clear) in 82Rb Cardiac PET: Impact of Count Statistics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Nana Louise; Tolbod, Lars Poulsen

    PET scans. 3) Static and dynamic images from a set of 7 patients (BSA: 1.6-2.2 m2) referred for 82Rb cardiac PET was analyzed using a range of beta factors. Results were compared to the institution’s standard clinical practice reconstruction protocol. All scans were performed on GE DMI Digital......Aim: Q.Clear reconstruction is expected to improve detection of perfusion defects in cardiac PET due to the high degree of image convergence and effective noise suppression. However, 82Rb (T½=76s) possess a special problem, since count statistics vary significantly not only between patients...... statistics using a cardiac PET phantom as well as a selection of clinical patients referred for 82Rb cardiac PET. Methods: The study consistent of 3 parts: 1) A thorax-cardiac phantom was scanned for 10 minutes after injection of 1110 MBq 82Rb. Frames at 3 different times after infusion were reconstructed...

  14. Using Paper Helicopters to Teach Statistical Process Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Danny J.

    2011-01-01

    This hands-on project uses a paper helicopter to teach students how to distinguish between common and special causes of variability when developing and using statistical process control charts. It allows the student to experience a process that is out-of-control due to imprecise or incomplete product design specifications and to discover how the…

  15. Statistical Process Control: Going to the Limit for Quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Training, 1987

    1987-01-01

    Defines the concept of statistical process control, a quality control method used especially in manufacturing. Generally, concept users set specific standard levels that must be met. Makes the point that although employees work directly with the method, management is responsible for its success within the plant. (CH)

  16. Manufacturing Squares: An Integrative Statistical Process Control Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coy, Steven P.

    2016-01-01

    In the exercise, students in a junior-level operations management class are asked to manufacture a simple product. Given product specifications, they must design a production process, create roles and design jobs for each team member, and develop a statistical process control plan that efficiently and effectively controls quality during…

  17. Statistic techniques of process control for MTR type

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, F.S.; Ferrufino, F.B.J.; Santos, G.R.T.; Lima, R.M.

    2002-01-01

    This work aims at introducing some improvements on the fabrication of MTR type fuel plates, applying statistic techniques of process control. The work was divided into four single steps and their data were analyzed for: fabrication of U 3 O 8 fuel plates; fabrication of U 3 Si 2 fuel plates; rolling of small lots of fuel plates; applying statistic tools and standard specifications to perform a comparative study of these processes. (author)

  18. Basics of Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Sujit K

    2010-01-01

    Bayesian methods are rapidly becoming popular tools for making statistical inference in various fields of science including biology, engineering, finance, and genetics. One of the key aspects of Bayesian inferential method is its logical foundation that provides a coherent framework to utilize not only empirical but also scientific information available to a researcher. Prior knowledge arising from scientific background, expert judgment, or previously collected data is used to build a prior distribution which is then combined with current data via the likelihood function to characterize the current state of knowledge using the so-called posterior distribution. Bayesian methods allow the use of models of complex physical phenomena that were previously too difficult to estimate (e.g., using asymptotic approximations). Bayesian methods offer a means of more fully understanding issues that are central to many practical problems by allowing researchers to build integrated models based on hierarchical conditional distributions that can be estimated even with limited amounts of data. Furthermore, advances in numerical integration methods, particularly those based on Monte Carlo methods, have made it possible to compute the optimal Bayes estimators. However, there is a reasonably wide gap between the background of the empirically trained scientists and the full weight of Bayesian statistical inference. Hence, one of the goals of this chapter is to bridge the gap by offering elementary to advanced concepts that emphasize linkages between standard approaches and full probability modeling via Bayesian methods.

  19. Restoration of Bi-Contrast MRI Data for Intensity Uniformity with Bayesian Coring of Co-Occurrence Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stathis Hadjidemetriou

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The reconstruction of MRI data assumes a uniform radio-frequency field. However, in practice, the radio-frequency field is inhomogeneous and leads to anatomically inconsequential intensity non-uniformities across an image. An anatomic region can be imaged with multiple contrasts reconstructed independently and be suffering from different non-uniformities. These artifacts can complicate the further automated analysis of the images. A method is presented for the joint intensity uniformity restoration of two such images. The effect of the intensity distortion on the auto-co-occurrence statistics of each image as well as on the joint-co-occurrence statistics of the two images is modeled and used for their non-stationary restoration followed by their back-projection to the images. Several constraints that ensure a stable restoration are also imposed. Moreover, the method considers the inevitable differences between the signal regions of the two images. The method has been evaluated extensively with BrainWeb phantom brain data as well as with brain anatomic data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP and with data of Parkinson’s disease patients. The performance of the proposed method has been compared with that of the N4ITK tool. The proposed method increases tissues contrast at least 4 . 62 times more than the N4ITK tool for the BrainWeb images. The dynamic range with the N4ITK method for the same images is increased by up to +29.77%, whereas, for the proposed method, it has a corresponding limited decrease of - 1 . 15 % , as expected. The validation has demonstrated the accuracy and stability of the proposed method and hence its ability to reduce the requirements for additional calibration scans.

  20. Effective control of complex turbulent dynamical systems through statistical functionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majda, Andrew J; Qi, Di

    2017-05-30

    Turbulent dynamical systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities are ubiquitous among complex systems in science and engineering, including climate, material, and neural science. Control of these complex systems is a grand challenge, for example, in mitigating the effects of climate change or safe design of technology with fully developed shear turbulence. Control of flows in the transition to turbulence, where there is a small dimension of instabilities about a basic mean state, is an important and successful discipline. In complex turbulent dynamical systems, it is impossible to track and control the large dimension of instabilities, which strongly interact and exchange energy, and new control strategies are needed. The goal of this paper is to propose an effective statistical control strategy for complex turbulent dynamical systems based on a recent statistical energy principle and statistical linear response theory. We illustrate the potential practical efficiency and verify this effective statistical control strategy on the 40D Lorenz 1996 model in forcing regimes with various types of fully turbulent dynamics with nearly one-half of the phase space unstable.

  1. Real-time statistical quality control and ARM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blough, D.K.

    1992-05-01

    An important component of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program is real-time quality control of data obtained from meteorological instruments. It is the goal of the ARM program to enhance the predictive capabilities of global circulation models by incorporating in them more detailed information on the radiative characteristics of the earth's atmosphere. To this end, a number of Cloud and Radiation Testbeds (CART's) will be built at various locations worldwide. Each CART will consist of an array of instruments designed to collect radiative data. The large amount of data obtained from these instruments necessitates real-time processing in order to flag outliers and possible instrument malfunction. The Bayesian dynamic linear model (DLM) proves to be an effective way of monitoring the time series data which each instrument generates. It provides a flexible yet powerful approach to detecting in real-time sudden shifts in a non-stationary multivariate time series. An application of these techniques to data arising from a remote sensing instrument to be used in the CART is provided. Using real data from a wind profiler, the ability of the DLM to detect outliers is studied. 5 refs

  2. Monte Carlo Bayesian inference on a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution cloud observations. Part 1: Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Peter M.; da Silva, Arlindo M.

    2018-01-01

    A method is presented to constrain a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution satellite cloud data. The method can be used for large-scale model parameter estimation or cloud data assimilation. The gridcolumn model includes assumed probability density function (PDF) intra-layer horizontal variability and a copula-based inter-layer correlation model. The observables used in the current study are Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud-top pressure, brightness temperature and cloud optical thickness, but the method should be extensible to direct cloudy radiance assimilation for a small number of channels. The algorithm is a form of Bayesian inference with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to characterizing the posterior distribution. This approach is especially useful in cases where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach is not gradient-based and allows jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. The current study uses a skewed-triangle distribution for layer moisture. The article also includes a discussion of the Metropolis and multiple-try Metropolis versions of MCMC. PMID:29618847

  3. Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-Gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-Resolution Cloud Observations. Part 1: Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Peter M.; Da Silva, Arlindo M.

    2016-01-01

    A method is presented to constrain a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution satellite cloud data. The method can be used for large-scale model parameter estimation or cloud data assimilation. The gridcolumn model includes assumed probability density function (PDF) intra-layer horizontal variability and a copula-based inter-layer correlation model. The observables used in the current study are Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud-top pressure, brightness temperature and cloud optical thickness, but the method should be extensible to direct cloudy radiance assimilation for a small number of channels. The algorithm is a form of Bayesian inference with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to characterizing the posterior distribution. This approach is especially useful in cases where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach is not gradient-based and allows jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. The current study uses a skewed-triangle distribution for layer moisture. The article also includes a discussion of the Metropolis and multiple-try Metropolis versions of MCMC.

  4. An approximate inversion method of geoelectrical sounding data using linear and bayesian statistical approaches. Examples of Tritrivakely volcanic lake and Mahitsy area (central part of Madagascar)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ranaivo Nomenjanahary, F.; Rakoto, H.; Ratsimbazafy, J.B.

    1994-08-01

    This paper is concerned with resistivity sounding measurements performed from single site (vertical sounding) or from several sites (profiles) within a bounded area. The objective is to present an accurate information about the study area and to estimate the likelihood of the produced quantitative models. The achievement of this objective obviously requires quite relevant data and processing methods. It also requires interpretation methods which should take into account the probable effect of an heterogeneous structure. In front of such difficulties, the interpretation of resistivity sounding data inevitably involves the use of inversion methods. We suggest starting the interpretation in simple situation (1-D approximation), and using the rough but correct model obtained as an a-priori model for any more refined interpretation. Related to this point of view, special attention should be paid for the inverse problem applied to the resistivity sounding data. This inverse problem is nonlinear, while linearity inherent in the functional response used to describe the physical experiment. Two different approaches are used to build an approximate but higher dimensional inversion of geoelectrical data: the linear approach and the bayesian statistical approach. Some illustrations of their application in resistivity sounding data acquired at Tritrivakely volcanic lake (single site) and at Mahitsy area (several sites) will be given. (author). 28 refs, 7 figs

  5. Bayesian evaluation of budgets for endemic disease control: An example using management changes to reduce milk somatic cell count early in the first lactation of Irish dairy cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archer, S C; Mc Coy, F; Wapenaar, W; Green, M J

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this research was to determine budgets for specific management interventions to control heifer mastitis in Irish dairy herds as an example of evidence synthesis and 1-step Bayesian micro-simulation in a veterinary context. Budgets were determined for different decision makers based on their willingness to pay. Reducing the prevalence of heifers with a high milk somatic cell count (SCC) early in the first lactation could be achieved through herd level management interventions for pre- and peri-partum heifers, however the cost effectiveness of these interventions is unknown. A synthesis of multiple sources of evidence, accounting for variability and uncertainty in the available data is invaluable to inform decision makers around likely economic outcomes of investing in disease control measures. One analytical approach to this is Bayesian micro-simulation, where the trajectory of different individuals undergoing specific interventions is simulated. The classic micro-simulation framework was extended to encompass synthesis of evidence from 2 separate statistical models and previous research, with the outcome for an individual cow or herd assessed in terms of changes in lifetime milk yield, disposal risk, and likely financial returns conditional on the interventions being simultaneously applied. The 3 interventions tested were storage of bedding inside, decreasing transition yard stocking density, and spreading of bedding evenly in the calving area. Budgets for the interventions were determined based on the minimum expected return on investment, and the probability of the desired outcome. Budgets for interventions to control heifer mastitis were highly dependent on the decision maker's willingness to pay, and hence minimum expected return on investment. Understanding the requirements of decision makers and their rational spending limits would be useful for the development of specific interventions for particular farms to control heifer mastitis, and other

  6. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....

  7. Statistical Process Control in the Practice of Program Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posavac, Emil J.

    1995-01-01

    A technique developed to monitor the quality of manufactured products, statistical process control (SPC), incorporates several features that may prove attractive to evaluators. This paper reviews the history of SPC, suggests how the approach can enrich program evaluation, and illustrates its use in a hospital-based example. (SLD)

  8. Statistical Process Control. Impact and Opportunities for Ohio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Harold H.

    The first purpose of this study is to help the reader become aware of the evolution of Statistical Process Control (SPC) as it is being implemented and used in industry today. This is approached through the presentation of a brief historical account of SPC, from its inception through the technological miracle that has occurred in Japan. The…

  9. Statistical Process Control. A Summary. FEU/PICKUP Project Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, M.; Clark, I.

    A project was conducted to develop a curriculum and training materials to be used in training industrial operatives in statistical process control (SPC) techniques. During the first phase of the project, questionnaires were sent to 685 companies (215 of which responded) to determine where SPC was being used, what type of SPC firms needed, and how…

  10. Statistical physics of human beings in games: Controlled experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Yuan; Huang Ji-Ping

    2014-01-01

    It is important to know whether the laws or phenomena in statistical physics for natural systems with non-adaptive agents still hold for social human systems with adaptive agents, because this implies whether it is possible to study or understand social human systems by using statistical physics originating from natural systems. For this purpose, we review the role of human adaptability in four kinds of specific human behaviors, namely, normal behavior, herd behavior, contrarian behavior, and hedge behavior. The approach is based on controlled experiments in the framework of market-directed resource-allocation games. The role of the controlled experiments could be at least two-fold: adopting the real human decision-making process so that the system under consideration could reflect the performance of genuine human beings; making it possible to obtain macroscopic physical properties of a human system by tuning a particular factor of the system, thus directly revealing cause and effect. As a result, both computer simulations and theoretical analyses help to show a few counterparts of some laws or phenomena in statistical physics for social human systems: two-phase phenomena or phase transitions, entropy-related phenomena, and a non-equilibrium steady state. This review highlights the role of human adaptability in these counterparts, and makes it possible to study or understand some particular social human systems by means of statistical physics coming from natural systems. (topical review - statistical physics and complex systems)

  11. Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Hayslett, H T

    1991-01-01

    Statistics covers the basic principles of Statistics. The book starts by tackling the importance and the two kinds of statistics; the presentation of sample data; the definition, illustration and explanation of several measures of location; and the measures of variation. The text then discusses elementary probability, the normal distribution and the normal approximation to the binomial. Testing of statistical hypotheses and tests of hypotheses about the theoretical proportion of successes in a binomial population and about the theoretical mean of a normal population are explained. The text the

  12. Bayesian methods in reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

    1991-11-01

    The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

  13. Bayesian approach and application to operation safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Procaccia, H.; Suhner, M.Ch.

    2003-01-01

    The management of industrial risks requires the development of statistical and probabilistic analyses which use all the available convenient information in order to compensate the insufficient experience feedback in a domain where accidents and incidents remain too scarce to perform a classical statistical frequency analysis. The Bayesian decision approach is well adapted to this problem because it integrates both the expertise and the experience feedback. The domain of knowledge is widen, the forecasting study becomes possible and the decisions-remedial actions are strengthen thanks to risk-cost-benefit optimization analyzes. This book presents the bases of the Bayesian approach and its concrete applications in various industrial domains. After a mathematical presentation of the industrial operation safety concepts and of the Bayesian approach principles, this book treats of some of the problems that can be solved thanks to this approach: softwares reliability, controls linked with the equipments warranty, dynamical updating of databases, expertise modeling and weighting, Bayesian optimization in the domains of maintenance, quality control, tests and design of new equipments. A synthesis of the mathematical formulae used in this approach is given in conclusion. (J.S.)

  14. A Statistical Project Control Tool for Engineering Managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauch, Garland T.

    2001-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the use of a Statistical Project Control Tool (SPCT) for managing engineering projects. A literature review pointed to a definition of project success, (i.e., A project is successful when the cost, schedule, technical performance, and quality satisfy the customer.) The literature review also pointed to project success factors, and traditional project control tools, and performance measures that are detailed in the report. The essential problem is that with resources becoming more limited, and an increasing number or projects, project failure is increasing, there is a limitation of existing methods and systematic methods are required. The objective of the work is to provide a new statistical project control tool for project managers. Graphs using the SPCT method plotting results of 3 successful projects and 3 failed projects are reviewed, with success and failure being defined by the owner.

  15. Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yuning

    2015-01-01

    Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

  16. Statistical transformation and the interpretation of inpatient glucose control data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saulnier, George E; Castro, Janna C; Cook, Curtiss B

    2014-03-01

    To introduce a statistical method of assessing hospital-based non-intensive care unit (non-ICU) inpatient glucose control. Point-of-care blood glucose (POC-BG) data from hospital non-ICUs were extracted for January 1 through December 31, 2011. Glucose data distribution was examined before and after Box-Cox transformations and compared to normality. Different subsets of data were used to establish upper and lower control limits, and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts were constructed from June, July, and October data as examples to determine if out-of-control events were identified differently in nontransformed versus transformed data. A total of 36,381 POC-BG values were analyzed. In all 3 monthly test samples, glucose distributions in nontransformed data were skewed but approached a normal distribution once transformed. Interpretation of out-of-control events from EWMA control chart analyses also revealed differences. In the June test data, an out-of-control process was identified at sample 53 with nontransformed data, whereas the transformed data remained in control for the duration of the observed period. Analysis of July data demonstrated an out-of-control process sooner in the transformed (sample 55) than nontransformed (sample 111) data, whereas for October, transformed data remained in control longer than nontransformed data. Statistical transformations increase the normal behavior of inpatient non-ICU glycemic data sets. The decision to transform glucose data could influence the interpretation and conclusions about the status of inpatient glycemic control. Further study is required to determine whether transformed versus nontransformed data influence clinical decisions or evaluation of interventions.

  17. Bayesian methods for proteomic biomarker development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belinda Hernández

    2015-12-01

    In this review we provide an introduction to Bayesian inference and demonstrate some of the advantages of using a Bayesian framework. We summarize how Bayesian methods have been used previously in proteomics and other areas of bioinformatics. Finally, we describe some popular and emerging Bayesian models from the statistical literature and provide a worked tutorial including code snippets to show how these methods may be applied for the evaluation of proteomic biomarkers.

  18. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2007-02-15

    Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos

  19. Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asad Ali

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an  overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.

  20. Statistical physics of human beings in games: Controlled experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yuan; Huang, Ji-Ping

    2014-07-01

    It is important to know whether the laws or phenomena in statistical physics for natural systems with non-adaptive agents still hold for social human systems with adaptive agents, because this implies whether it is possible to study or understand social human systems by using statistical physics originating from natural systems. For this purpose, we review the role of human adaptability in four kinds of specific human behaviors, namely, normal behavior, herd behavior, contrarian behavior, and hedge behavior. The approach is based on controlled experiments in the framework of market-directed resource-allocation games. The role of the controlled experiments could be at least two-fold: adopting the real human decision-making process so that the system under consideration could reflect the performance of genuine human beings; making it possible to obtain macroscopic physical properties of a human system by tuning a particular factor of the system, thus directly revealing cause and effect. As a result, both computer simulations and theoretical analyses help to show a few counterparts of some laws or phenomena in statistical physics for social human systems: two-phase phenomena or phase transitions, entropy-related phenomena, and a non-equilibrium steady state. This review highlights the role of human adaptability in these counterparts, and makes it possible to study or understand some particular social human systems by means of statistical physics coming from natural systems.

  1. Statistical process control charts for monitoring military injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuh, Anna; Canham-Chervak, Michelle; Jones, Bruce H

    2017-12-01

    An essential aspect of an injury prevention process is surveillance, which quantifies and documents injury rates in populations of interest and enables monitoring of injury frequencies, rates and trends. To drive progress towards injury reduction goals, additional tools are needed. Statistical process control charts, a methodology that has not been previously applied to Army injury monitoring, capitalise on existing medical surveillance data to provide information to leadership about injury trends necessary for prevention planning and evaluation. Statistical process control Shewhart u-charts were created for 49 US Army installations using quarterly injury medical encounter rates, 2007-2015, for active duty soldiers obtained from the Defense Medical Surveillance System. Injuries were defined according to established military injury surveillance recommendations. Charts display control limits three standard deviations (SDs) above and below an installation-specific historical average rate determined using 28 data points, 2007-2013. Charts are available in Army strategic management dashboards. From 2007 to 2015, Army injury rates ranged from 1254 to 1494 unique injuries per 1000 person-years. Installation injury rates ranged from 610 to 2312 injuries per 1000 person-years. Control charts identified four installations with injury rates exceeding the upper control limits at least once during 2014-2015, rates at three installations exceeded the lower control limit at least once and 42 installations had rates that fluctuated around the historical mean. Control charts can be used to drive progress towards injury reduction goals by indicating statistically significant increases and decreases in injury rates. Future applications to military subpopulations, other health outcome metrics and chart enhancements are suggested. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  2. An introduction to statistical process control in research proteomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramwell, David

    2013-12-16

    Statistical process control is a well-established and respected method which provides a general purpose, and consistent framework for monitoring and improving the quality of a process. It is routinely used in many industries where the quality of final products is critical and is often required in clinical diagnostic laboratories [1,2]. To date, the methodology has been little utilised in research proteomics. It has been shown to be capable of delivering quantitative QC procedures for qualitative clinical assays [3] making it an ideal methodology to apply to this area of biological research. To introduce statistical process control as an objective strategy for quality control and show how it could be used to benefit proteomics researchers and enhance the quality of the results they generate. We demonstrate that rules which provide basic quality control are easy to derive and implement and could have a major impact on data quality for many studies. Statistical process control is a powerful tool for investigating and improving proteomics research work-flows. The process of characterising measurement systems and defining control rules forces the exploration of key questions that can lead to significant improvements in performance. This work asserts that QC is essential to proteomics discovery experiments. Every experimenter must know the current capabilities of their measurement system and have an objective means for tracking and ensuring that performance. Proteomic analysis work-flows are complicated and multi-variate. QC is critical for clinical chemistry measurements and huge strides have been made in ensuring the quality and validity of results in clinical biochemistry labs. This work introduces some of these QC concepts and works to bridge their use from single analyte QC to applications in multi-analyte systems. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Standardization and Quality Control in Proteomics. Copyright © 2013 The Author. Published by Elsevier

  3. Monte Carlo Bayesian inference on a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution cloud observations. Part 2: Sensitivity tests and results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Peter M.; da Silva, Arlindo M.

    2018-01-01

    Part 1 of this series presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of global circulation model (GCM) sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud data, thereby permitting parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation for large-scale models. This article performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed reduce mean and standard deviation biases significantly with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud-top pressure and that it also improves the simulated rotational–Raman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows non-gradient-based jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast, where the background state has a clear swath. This article also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in passive-radiometer-retrieved cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud-top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification from Riishojgaard provides some help in this respect, by

  4. First study of correlation between oleic acid content and SAD gene polymorphism in olive oil samples through statistical and bayesian modeling analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Ayed, Rayda; Ennouri, Karim; Ercişli, Sezai; Ben Hlima, Hajer; Hanana, Mohsen; Smaoui, Slim; Rebai, Ahmed; Moreau, Fabienne

    2018-04-10

    Virgin olive oil is appreciated for its particular aroma and taste and is recognized worldwide for its nutritional value and health benefits. The olive oil contains a vast range of healthy compounds such as monounsaturated free fatty acids, especially, oleic acid. The SAD.1 polymorphism localized in the Stearoyl-acyl carrier protein desaturase gene (SAD) was genotyped and showed that it is associated with the oleic acid composition of olive oil samples. However, the effect of polymorphisms in fatty acid-related genes on olive oil monounsaturated and saturated fatty acids distribution in the Tunisian olive oil varieties is not understood. Seventeen Tunisian olive-tree varieties were selected for fatty acid content analysis by gas chromatography. The association of SAD.1 genotypes with the fatty acids composition was studied by statistical and Bayesian modeling analyses. Fatty acid content analysis showed interestingly that some Tunisian virgin olive oil varieties could be classified as a functional food and nutraceuticals due to their particular richness in oleic acid. In fact, the TT-SAD.1 genotype was found to be associated with a higher proportion of mono-unsaturated fatty acids (MUFA), mainly oleic acid (C18:1) (r = - 0.79, p SAD.1 association with the oleic acid composition of olive oil was identified among the studied varieties. This correlation fluctuated between studied varieties, which might elucidate variability in lipidic composition among them and therefore reflecting genetic diversity through differences in gene expression and biochemical pathways. SAD locus would represent an excellent marker for identifying interesting amongst virgin olive oil lipidic composition.

  5. Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-resolution Cloud Observations . Part II; Sensitivity Tests and Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Arlindo M.; Norris, Peter M.

    2013-01-01

    Part I presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of GCM sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution MODIS cloud data, thereby permitting large-scale model parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation. This part performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed significantly reduce mean and standard deviation biases with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud top pressure, and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Ramman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the OMI instrument. Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows finite jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast where the background state has a clear swath. This paper also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in the cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification due to Riishojgaard (1998) provides some help in this respect, by better honoring inversion structures in the background state.

  6. Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-Gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-Resolution Cloud Observations. Part 2: Sensitivity Tests and Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Peter M.; da Silva, Arlindo M.

    2016-01-01

    Part 1 of this series presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of global circulation model (GCM) sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud data, thereby permitting parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation for large-scale models. This article performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed reduce mean and standard deviation biases significantly with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud-top pressure and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Raman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows non-gradient-based jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast, where the background state has a clear swath. This article also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in passive-radiometer-retrieved cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud-top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification from Riishojgaard provides some help in this respect, by

  7. 77 FR 46096 - Statistical Process Controls for Blood Establishments; Public Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-02

    ...] Statistical Process Controls for Blood Establishments; Public Workshop AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration... workshop entitled: ``Statistical Process Controls for Blood Establishments.'' The purpose of this public workshop is to discuss the implementation of statistical process controls to validate and monitor...

  8. A new instrument for statistical process control of thermoset molding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Day, D.R.; Lee, H.L.; Shepard, D.D.; Sheppard, N.F.

    1991-01-01

    The recent development of a rugged ceramic mold mounted dielectric sensor and high speed dielectric instrumentation now enables monitoring and statistical process control of production molding over thousands of runs. In this work special instrumentation and software (ICAM-1000) was utilized that automatically extracts critical point during the molding process including flow point, viscosity minimum gel inflection, and reaction endpoint. In addition, other sensors were incorporated to measure temperature and pressure. The critical point as well as temperature and pressure were then recorded during normal production and then plotted in the form of statistical process control (SPC) charts. Experiments have been carried out in RIM, SMC, and RTM type molding operations. The influence of temperature, pressure chemistry, and other variables has been investigated. In this paper examples of both RIM and SMC are discussed

  9. PROCESS VARIABILITY REDUCTION THROUGH STATISTICAL PROCESS CONTROL FOR QUALITY IMPROVEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.P. Mahesh

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Quality has become one of the most important customer decision factors in the selection among the competing product and services. Consequently, understanding and improving quality is a key factor leading to business success, growth and an enhanced competitive position. Hence quality improvement program should be an integral part of the overall business strategy. According to TQM, the effective way to improve the Quality of the product or service is to improve the process used to build the product. Hence, TQM focuses on process, rather than results as the results are driven by the processes. Many techniques are available for quality improvement. Statistical Process Control (SPC is one such TQM technique which is widely accepted for analyzing quality problems and improving the performance of the production process. This article illustrates the step by step procedure adopted at a soap manufacturing company to improve the Quality by reducing process variability using Statistical Process Control.

  10. Statistical disclosure control for microdata methods and applications in R

    CERN Document Server

    Templ, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    This book on statistical disclosure control presents the theory, applications and software implementation of the traditional approach to (micro)data anonymization, including data perturbation methods, disclosure risk, data utility, information loss and methods for simulating synthetic data. Introducing readers to the R packages sdcMicro and simPop, the book also features numerous examples and exercises with solutions, as well as case studies with real-world data, accompanied by the underlying R code to allow readers to reproduce all results. The demand for and volume of data from surveys, registers or other sources containing sensible information on persons or enterprises have increased significantly over the last several years. At the same time, privacy protection principles and regulations have imposed restrictions on the access and use of individual data. Proper and secure microdata dissemination calls for the application of statistical disclosure control methods to the data before release. This book is in...

  11. Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Links to sources of cancer-related statistics, including the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, SEER-Medicare datasets, cancer survivor prevalence data, and the Cancer Trends Progress Report.

  12. Application of statistical process control to qualitative molecular diagnostic assays.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathal P O'brien

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Modern pathology laboratories and in particular high throughput laboratories such as clinical chemistry have developed a reliable system for statistical process control. Such a system is absent from the majority of molecular laboratories and where present is confined to quantitative assays. As the inability to apply statistical process control to assay is an obvious disadvantage this study aimed to solve this problem by using a frequency estimate coupled with a confidence interval calculation to detect deviations from an expected mutation frequency. The results of this study demonstrate the strengths and weaknesses of this approach and highlight minimum sample number requirements. Notably, assays with low mutation frequencies and detection of small deviations from an expected value require greater samples with a resultant protracted time to detection. Modelled laboratory data was also used to highlight how this approach might be applied in a routine molecular laboratory. This article is the first to describe the application of statistical process control to qualitative laboratory data.

  13. Statistical process control using optimized neural networks: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addeh, Jalil; Ebrahimzadeh, Ata; Azarbad, Milad; Ranaee, Vahid

    2014-09-01

    The most common statistical process control (SPC) tools employed for monitoring process changes are control charts. A control chart demonstrates that the process has altered by generating an out-of-control signal. This study investigates the design of an accurate system for the control chart patterns (CCPs) recognition in two aspects. First, an efficient system is introduced that includes two main modules: feature extraction module and classifier module. In the feature extraction module, a proper set of shape features and statistical feature are proposed as the efficient characteristics of the patterns. In the classifier module, several neural networks, such as multilayer perceptron, probabilistic neural network and radial basis function are investigated. Based on an experimental study, the best classifier is chosen in order to recognize the CCPs. Second, a hybrid heuristic recognition system is introduced based on cuckoo optimization algorithm (COA) algorithm to improve the generalization performance of the classifier. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm has high recognition accuracy. Copyright © 2013 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. A computerized diagnostic system for nuclear plant control rooms based on statistical quality control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heising, C.D.; Grenzebach, W.S.

    1990-01-01

    In engineering science, statistical quality control techniques have traditionally been applied to control manufacturing processes. An application to commercial nuclear power plant maintenance and control is presented that can greatly improve safety. As a demonstration of such an approach to plant maintenance and control, a specific system is analyzed: the reactor coolant pumps of the St. Lucie Unit 2 nuclear power plant located in Florida. A 30-day history of the four pumps prior to a plant shutdown caused by pump failure and a related fire within the containment was analyzed. Statistical quality control charts of recorded variables were constructed for each pump, which were shown to go out of statistical control many days before the plant trip. The analysis shows that statistical process control methods can be applied as an early warning system capable of identifying significant equipment problems well in advance of traditional control room alarm indicators

  15. Bayesian biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Lesaffre, Emmanuel

    2012-01-01

    The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd

  16. Statistical Learning and Adaptive Decision-Making Underlie Human Response Time Variability in Inhibitory Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning eMa

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Response time (RT is an oft-reported behavioral measure in psychological and neurocognitive experiments, but the high level of observed trial-to-trial variability in this measure has often limited its usefulness. Here, we combine computational modeling and psychophysics to examine the hypothesis that fluctuations in this noisy measure reflect dynamic computations in human statistical learning and corresponding cognitive adjustments. We present data from the stop-signal task, in which subjects respond to a go stimulus on each trial, unless instructed not to by a subsequent, infrequently presented stop signal. We model across-trial learning of stop signal frequency, P(stop, and stop-signal onset time, SSD (stop-signal delay, with a Bayesian hidden Markov model, and within-trial decision-making with an optimal stochastic control model. The combined model predicts that RT should increase with both expected P(stop and SSD. The human behavioral data (n=20 bear out this prediction, showing P(stop and SSD both to be significant, independent predictors of RT, with P(stop being a more prominent predictor in 75% of the subjects, and SSD being more prominent in the remaining 25%. The results demonstrate that humans indeed readily internalize environmental statistics and adjust their cognitive/behavioral strategy accordingly, and that subtle patterns in RT variability can serve as a valuable tool for validating models of statistical learning and decision-making. More broadly, the modeling tools presented in this work can be generalized to a large body of behavioral paradigms, in order to extract insights about cognitive and neural processing from apparently quite noisy behavioral measures. We also discuss how this behaviorally validated model can then be used to conduct model-based analysis of neural data, in order to help identify specific brain areas for representing and encoding key computational quantities in learning and decision-making.

  17. Statistical learning and adaptive decision-making underlie human response time variability in inhibitory control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Ning; Yu, Angela J

    2015-01-01

    Response time (RT) is an oft-reported behavioral measure in psychological and neurocognitive experiments, but the high level of observed trial-to-trial variability in this measure has often limited its usefulness. Here, we combine computational modeling and psychophysics to examine the hypothesis that fluctuations in this noisy measure reflect dynamic computations in human statistical learning and corresponding cognitive adjustments. We present data from the stop-signal task (SST), in which subjects respond to a go stimulus on each trial, unless instructed not to by a subsequent, infrequently presented stop signal. We model across-trial learning of stop signal frequency, P(stop), and stop-signal onset time, SSD (stop-signal delay), with a Bayesian hidden Markov model, and within-trial decision-making with an optimal stochastic control model. The combined model predicts that RT should increase with both expected P(stop) and SSD. The human behavioral data (n = 20) bear out this prediction, showing P(stop) and SSD both to be significant, independent predictors of RT, with P(stop) being a more prominent predictor in 75% of the subjects, and SSD being more prominent in the remaining 25%. The results demonstrate that humans indeed readily internalize environmental statistics and adjust their cognitive/behavioral strategy accordingly, and that subtle patterns in RT variability can serve as a valuable tool for validating models of statistical learning and decision-making. More broadly, the modeling tools presented in this work can be generalized to a large body of behavioral paradigms, in order to extract insights about cognitive and neural processing from apparently quite noisy behavioral measures. We also discuss how this behaviorally validated model can then be used to conduct model-based analysis of neural data, in order to help identify specific brain areas for representing and encoding key computational quantities in learning and decision-making.

  18. Bayesian fuzzy logic-based estimation of electron cyclotron heating (ECH) power deposition in MHD control systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davoudi, Mehdi, E-mail: mehdi.davoudi@polimi.it [Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Buein Zahra Technical University, Buein Zahra, Qazvin (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Davoudi, Mohsen, E-mail: davoudi@eng.ikiu.ac.ir [Department of Electrical Engineering, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, 34148-96818 (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2017-06-15

    Highlights: • A couple of algorithms to diagnose if Electron Cyclotron Heating (ECH) power is deposited properly on the expected deposition minor radius are proposed. • The algorithms are based on Bayesian theory and Fuzzy logic. • The algorithms are tested on the off-line experimental data acquired from Frascati Tokamak Upgrade (FTU), Frascati, Italy. • Uncertainties and evidences derived from the combination of online information formed by the measured diagnostic data and the prior information are also estimated. - Abstract: In the thermonuclear fusion systems, the new plasma control systems use some measured on-line information acquired from different sensors and prior information obtained by predictive plasma models in order to stabilize magnetic hydro dynamics (MHD) activity in a tokamak. Suppression of plasma instabilities is a key issue to improve the confinement time of controlled thermonuclear fusion with tokamaks. This paper proposes a couple of algorithms based on Bayesian theory and Fuzzy logic to diagnose if Electron Cyclotron Heating (ECH) power is deposited properly on the expected deposition minor radius (r{sub DEP}). Both algorithms also estimate uncertainties and evidences derived from the combination of the online information formed by the measured diagnostic data and the prior information. The algorithms have been employed on a set of off-line ECE channels data which have been acquired from the experimental shot number 21364 at Frascati Tokamak Upgrade (FTU), Frascati, Italy.

  19. Bayesian neural adjustment of inhibitory control predicts emergence of problem stimulant use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlé, Katia M; Stewart, Jennifer L; Zhang, Shunan; Tapert, Susan F; Yu, Angela J; Paulus, Martin P

    2015-11-01

    Bayesian ideal observer models quantify individuals' context- and experience-dependent beliefs and expectations about their environment, which provides a powerful approach (i) to link basic behavioural mechanisms to neural processing; and (ii) to generate clinical predictors for patient populations. Here, we focus on (ii) and determine whether individual differences in the neural representation of the need to stop in an inhibitory task can predict the development of problem use (i.e. abuse or dependence) in individuals experimenting with stimulants. One hundred and fifty-seven non-dependent occasional stimulant users, aged 18-24, completed a stop-signal task while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging. These individuals were prospectively followed for 3 years and evaluated for stimulant use and abuse/dependence symptoms. At follow-up, 38 occasional stimulant users met criteria for a stimulant use disorder (problem stimulant users), while 50 had discontinued use (desisted stimulant users). We found that those individuals who showed greater neural responses associated with Bayesian prediction errors, i.e. the difference between actual and expected need to stop on a given trial, in right medial prefrontal cortex/anterior cingulate cortex, caudate, anterior insula, and thalamus were more likely to exhibit problem use 3 years later. Importantly, these computationally based neural predictors outperformed clinical measures and non-model based neural variables in predicting clinical status. In conclusion, young adults who show exaggerated brain processing underlying whether to 'stop' or to 'go' are more likely to develop stimulant abuse. Thus, Bayesian cognitive models provide both a computational explanation and potential predictive biomarkers of belief processing deficits in individuals at risk for stimulant addiction. © The Author (2015). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please

  20. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    For the years 2004 and 2005 the figures shown in the tables of Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics published in Energy Review are presented in more detail in a publication called Energy Statistics that comes out yearly. Energy Statistics also includes historical time-series over a longer period of time (see e.g. Energy Statistics, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2004.) The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supplies and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2003, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2003, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes, precautionary stock fees and oil pollution fees

  1. Bayesian Utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    ZHOU, Lin

    1996-01-01

    In this paper I consider social choices under uncertainty. I prove that any social choice rule that satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives, translation invariance, and weak anonymity is consistent with ex post Bayesian utilitarianism

  2. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    For the year 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 1999, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2000, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions from the use of fossil fuels, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  3. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    For the year 1999 and 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g., Energiatilastot 1998, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 1999, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-March 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in January-March 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  4. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    For the year 1998 and the year 1999, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 1998, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 1999, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 1999, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 1999, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  5. Statistical Process Control in a Modern Production Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Windfeldt, Gitte Bjørg

    gathered here and standard statistical software. In Paper 2 a new method for process monitoring is introduced. The method uses a statistical model of the quality characteristic and a sliding window of observations to estimate the probability that the next item will not respect the specications......Paper 1 is aimed at practicians to help them test the assumption that the observations in a sample are independent and identically distributed. An assumption that is essential when using classical Shewhart charts. The test can easily be performed in the control chart setup using the samples....... If the estimated probability exceeds a pre-determined threshold the process will be stopped. The method is exible, allowing a complexity in modeling that remains invisible to the end user. Furthermore, the method allows to build diagnostic plots based on the parameters estimates that can provide valuable insight...

  6. The application of statistical process control in linac quality assurance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Dingyu; Dai Jianrong

    2009-01-01

    Objective: To improving linac quality assurance (QA) program with statistical process control (SPC) method. Methods: SPC is applied to set the control limit of QA data, draw charts and differentiate the random and systematic errors. A SPC quality assurance software named QA M ANAGER has been developed by VB programming for clinical use. Two clinical cases are analyzed with SPC to study daily output QA of a 6MV photon beam. Results: In the clinical case, the SPC is able to identify the systematic errors. Conclusion: The SPC application may be assistant to detect systematic errors in linac quality assurance thus it alarms the abnormal trend to eliminate the systematic errors and improves quality control. (authors)

  7. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    For the year 2002, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics of the Energy Review also includes historical time-series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 2001, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2002). The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the inside back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supply and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2003, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2003, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Excise taxes, precautionary stock fees on oil pollution fees on energy products

  8. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    For the year 2003 and 2004, the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics of the Energy Review also includes historical time-series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2003, ISSN 0785-3165). The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the inside back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supplies and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-March 2004, Energy exports by recipient country in January-March 2004, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Excise taxes, precautionary stock fees on oil pollution fees

  9. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    For the year 1999 and 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g., Energiatilastot 1999, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2000, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  10. Statistical process control applied to the manufacturing of beryllia ceramics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferguson, G.P.; Jech, D.E.; Sepulveda, J.L.

    1991-01-01

    To compete effectively in an international market, scrap and re-work costs must be minimized. Statistical Process Control (SPC) provides powerful tools to optimize production performance. These techniques are currently being applied to the forming, metallizing, and brazing of beryllia ceramic components. This paper describes specific examples of applications of SPC to dry-pressing of beryllium oxide 2x2 substrates, to Mo-Mn refractory metallization, and to metallization and brazing of plasma tubes used in lasers where adhesion strength is critical

  11. Application of Bayesian methods to habitat selection modeling of the northern spotted owl in California: new statistical methods for wildlife research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard B. Stauffer; Cynthia J. Zabel; Jeffrey R. Dunk

    2005-01-01

    We compared a set of competing logistic regression habitat selection models for Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in California. The habitat selection models were estimated, compared, evaluated, and tested using multiple sample datasets collected on federal forestlands in northern California. We used Bayesian methods in interpreting...

  12. Errors in patient specimen collection: application of statistical process control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzik, Walter Sunny; Beckman, Neil; Selleng, Kathleen; Heddle, Nancy; Szczepiorkowski, Zbigniew; Wendel, Silvano; Murphy, Michael

    2008-10-01

    Errors in the collection and labeling of blood samples for pretransfusion testing increase the risk of transfusion-associated patient morbidity and mortality. Statistical process control (SPC) is a recognized method to monitor the performance of a critical process. An easy-to-use SPC method was tested to determine its feasibility as a tool for monitoring quality in transfusion medicine. SPC control charts were adapted to a spreadsheet presentation. Data tabulating the frequency of mislabeled and miscollected blood samples from 10 hospitals in five countries from 2004 to 2006 were used to demonstrate the method. Control charts were produced to monitor process stability. The participating hospitals found the SPC spreadsheet very suitable to monitor the performance of the sample labeling and collection and applied SPC charts to suit their specific needs. One hospital monitored subcategories of sample error in detail. A large hospital monitored the number of wrong-blood-in-tube (WBIT) events. Four smaller-sized facilities, each following the same policy for sample collection, combined their data on WBIT samples into a single control chart. One hospital used the control chart to monitor the effect of an educational intervention. A simple SPC method is described that can monitor the process of sample collection and labeling in any hospital. SPC could be applied to other critical steps in the transfusion processes as a tool for biovigilance and could be used to develop regional or national performance standards for pretransfusion sample collection. A link is provided to download the spreadsheet for free.

  13. Statistical analysis of quality control of automatic processor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niu Yantao; Zhao Lei; Zhang Wei; Yan Shulin

    2002-01-01

    Objective: To strengthen the scientific management of automatic processor and promote QC, based on analyzing QC management chart for automatic processor by statistical method, evaluating and interpreting the data and trend of the chart. Method: Speed, contrast, minimum density of step wedge of film strip were measured everyday and recorded on the QC chart. Mean (x-bar), standard deviation (s) and range (R) were calculated. The data and the working trend were evaluated and interpreted for management decisions. Results: Using relative frequency distribution curve constructed by measured data, the authors can judge whether it is a symmetric bell-shaped curve or not. If not, it indicates a few extremes overstepping control limits possibly are pulling the curve to the left or right. If it is a normal distribution, standard deviation (s) is observed. When x-bar +- 2s lies in upper and lower control limits of relative performance indexes, it indicates the processor works in stable status in this period. Conclusion: Guided by statistical method, QC work becomes more scientific and quantified. The authors can deepen understanding and application of the trend chart, and improve the quality management to a new step

  14. Advances in Bayesian Modeling in Educational Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Roy

    2016-01-01

    In this article, I provide a conceptually oriented overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference and contrast them with frequentist approaches that currently dominate conventional practice in educational research. The features and advantages of Bayesian approaches are illustrated with examples spanning several statistical modeling…

  15. Statistically Controlling for Confounding Constructs Is Harder than You Think.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob Westfall

    Full Text Available Social scientists often seek to demonstrate that a construct has incremental validity over and above other related constructs. However, these claims are typically supported by measurement-level models that fail to consider the effects of measurement (unreliability. We use intuitive examples, Monte Carlo simulations, and a novel analytical framework to demonstrate that common strategies for establishing incremental construct validity using multiple regression analysis exhibit extremely high Type I error rates under parameter regimes common in many psychological domains. Counterintuitively, we find that error rates are highest--in some cases approaching 100%--when sample sizes are large and reliability is moderate. Our findings suggest that a potentially large proportion of incremental validity claims made in the literature are spurious. We present a web application (http://jakewestfall.org/ivy/ that readers can use to explore the statistical properties of these and other incremental validity arguments. We conclude by reviewing SEM-based statistical approaches that appropriately control the Type I error rate when attempting to establish incremental validity.

  16. Improved Statistical Method For Hydrographic Climatic Records Quality Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gourrion, J.; Szekely, T.

    2016-02-01

    Climate research benefits from the continuous development of global in-situ hydrographic networks in the last decades. Apart from the increasing volume of observations available on a large range of temporal and spatial scales, a critical aspect concerns the ability to constantly improve the quality of the datasets. In the context of the Coriolis Dataset for ReAnalysis (CORA) version 4.2, a new quality control method based on a local comparison to historical extreme values ever observed is developed, implemented and validated. Temperature, salinity and potential density validity intervals are directly estimated from minimum and maximum values from an historical reference dataset, rather than from traditional mean and standard deviation estimates. Such an approach avoids strong statistical assumptions on the data distributions such as unimodality, absence of skewness and spatially homogeneous kurtosis. As a new feature, it also allows addressing simultaneously the two main objectives of a quality control strategy, i.e. maximizing the number of good detections while minimizing the number of false alarms. The reference dataset is presently built from the fusion of 1) all ARGO profiles up to early 2014, 2) 3 historical CTD datasets and 3) the Sea Mammals CTD profiles from the MEOP database. All datasets are extensively and manually quality controlled. In this communication, the latest method validation results are also presented. The method has been implemented in the latest version of the CORA dataset and will benefit to the next version of the Copernicus CMEMS dataset.

  17. Application of statistical process control to qualitative molecular diagnostic assays

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Brien, Cathal P.

    2014-11-01

    Modern pathology laboratories and in particular high throughput laboratories such as clinical chemistry have developed a reliable system for statistical process control (SPC). Such a system is absent from the majority of molecular laboratories and where present is confined to quantitative assays. As the inability to apply SPC to an assay is an obvious disadvantage this study aimed to solve this problem by using a frequency estimate coupled with a confidence interval calculation to detect deviations from an expected mutation frequency. The results of this study demonstrate the strengths and weaknesses of this approach and highlight minimum sample number requirements. Notably, assays with low mutation frequencies and detection of small deviations from an expected value require greater sample numbers to mitigate a protracted time to detection. Modeled laboratory data was also used to highlight how this approach might be applied in a routine molecular laboratory. This article is the first to describe the application of SPC to qualitative laboratory data.

  18. Application of statistical process control to qualitative molecular diagnostic assays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Cathal P; Finn, Stephen P

    2014-01-01

    Modern pathology laboratories and in particular high throughput laboratories such as clinical chemistry have developed a reliable system for statistical process control (SPC). Such a system is absent from the majority of molecular laboratories and where present is confined to quantitative assays. As the inability to apply SPC to an assay is an obvious disadvantage this study aimed to solve this problem by using a frequency estimate coupled with a confidence interval calculation to detect deviations from an expected mutation frequency. The results of this study demonstrate the strengths and weaknesses of this approach and highlight minimum sample number requirements. Notably, assays with low mutation frequencies and detection of small deviations from an expected value require greater sample numbers to mitigate a protracted time to detection. Modeled laboratory data was also used to highlight how this approach might be applied in a routine molecular laboratory. This article is the first to describe the application of SPC to qualitative laboratory data.

  19. Optimage central organised image quality control including statistics and reporting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jahnen, A.; Schilz, C.; Shannoun, F.; Schreiner, A.; Hermen, J.; Moll, C.

    2008-01-01

    Quality control of medical imaging systems is performed using dedicated phantoms. As the imaging systems are more and more digital, adequate image processing methods might help to save evaluation time and to receive objective results. The developed software package OPTIMAGE is focusing on this with a central approach: On one hand, OPTIMAGE provides a framework, which includes functions like database integration, DICOM data sources, multilingual user interface and image processing functionality. On the other hand, the test methods are implemented using modules which are able to process the images automatically for the common imaging systems. The integration of statistics and reporting into this environment is paramount: This is the only way to provide these functions in an interactive, user-friendly way. These features enable the users to discover degradation in performance quickly and document performed measurements easily. (authors)

  20. Approximate Bayesian recursive estimation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kárný, Miroslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 285, č. 1 (2014), s. 100-111 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Approximate parameter estimation * Bayesian recursive estimation * Kullback–Leibler divergence * Forgetting Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.038, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/AS/karny-0425539.pdf

  1. Sparse reconstruction using distribution agnostic bayesian matching pursuit

    KAUST Repository

    Masood, Mudassir; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.

    2013-01-01

    A fast matching pursuit method using a Bayesian approach is introduced for sparse signal recovery. This method performs Bayesian estimates of sparse signals even when the signal prior is non-Gaussian or unknown. It is agnostic on signal statistics

  2. Improved statistical method for temperature and salinity quality control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gourrion, Jérôme; Szekely, Tanguy

    2017-04-01

    Climate research and Ocean monitoring benefit from the continuous development of global in-situ hydrographic networks in the last decades. Apart from the increasing volume of observations available on a large range of temporal and spatial scales, a critical aspect concerns the ability to constantly improve the quality of the datasets. In the context of the Coriolis Dataset for ReAnalysis (CORA) version 4.2, a new quality control method based on a local comparison to historical extreme values ever observed is developed, implemented and validated. Temperature, salinity and potential density validity intervals are directly estimated from minimum and maximum values from an historical reference dataset, rather than from traditional mean and standard deviation estimates. Such an approach avoids strong statistical assumptions on the data distributions such as unimodality, absence of skewness and spatially homogeneous kurtosis. As a new feature, it also allows addressing simultaneously the two main objectives of an automatic quality control strategy, i.e. maximizing the number of good detections while minimizing the number of false alarms. The reference dataset is presently built from the fusion of 1) all ARGO profiles up to late 2015, 2) 3 historical CTD datasets and 3) the Sea Mammals CTD profiles from the MEOP database. All datasets are extensively and manually quality controlled. In this communication, the latest method validation results are also presented. The method has already been implemented in the latest version of the delayed-time CMEMS in-situ dataset and will be deployed soon in the equivalent near-real time products.

  3. [Statistical process control applied to intensity modulated radiotherapy pretreatment controls with portal dosimetry].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villani, N; Gérard, K; Marchesi, V; Huger, S; François, P; Noël, A

    2010-06-01

    The first purpose of this study was to illustrate the contribution of statistical process control for a better security in intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) treatments. This improvement is possible by controlling the dose delivery process, characterized by pretreatment quality control results. So, it is necessary to put under control portal dosimetry measurements (currently, the ionisation chamber measurements were already monitored by statistical process control thanks to statistical process control tools). The second objective was to state whether it is possible to substitute ionisation chamber with portal dosimetry in order to optimize time devoted to pretreatment quality control. At Alexis-Vautrin center, pretreatment quality controls in IMRT for prostate and head and neck treatments were performed for each beam of each patient. These controls were made with an ionisation chamber, which is the reference detector for the absolute dose measurement, and with portal dosimetry for the verification of dose distribution. Statistical process control is a statistical analysis method, coming from industry, used to control and improve the studied process quality. It uses graphic tools as control maps to follow-up process, warning the operator in case of failure, and quantitative tools to evaluate the process toward its ability to respect guidelines: this is the capability study. The study was performed on 450 head and neck beams and on 100 prostate beams. Control charts, showing drifts, both slow and weak, and also both strong and fast, of mean and standard deviation have been established and have shown special cause introduced (manual shift of the leaf gap of the multileaf collimator). Correlation between dose measured at one point, given with the EPID and the ionisation chamber has been evaluated at more than 97% and disagreement cases between the two measurements were identified. The study allowed to demonstrate the feasibility to reduce the time devoted to

  4. Statistical process control applied to intensity modulated radiotherapy pretreatment controls with portal dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villani, N.; Noel, A.; Villani, N.; Gerard, K.; Marchesi, V.; Huger, S.; Noel, A.; Francois, P.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose The first purpose of this study was to illustrate the contribution of statistical process control for a better security in intensity modulated radiotherapy (I.M.R.T.) treatments. This improvement is possible by controlling the dose delivery process, characterized by pretreatment quality control results. So, it is necessary to put under control portal dosimetry measurements (currently, the ionisation chamber measurements were already monitored by statistical process control thanks to statistical process control tools). The second objective was to state whether it is possible to substitute ionisation chamber with portal dosimetry in order to optimize time devoted to pretreatment quality control. Patients and methods At Alexis-Vautrin center, pretreatment quality controls in I.M.R.T. for prostate and head and neck treatments were performed for each beam of each patient. These controls were made with an ionisation chamber, which is the reference detector for the absolute dose measurement, and with portal dosimetry for the verification of dose distribution. Statistical process control is a statistical analysis method, coming from industry, used to control and improve the studied process quality. It uses graphic tools as control maps to follow-up process, warning the operator in case of failure, and quantitative tools to evaluate the process toward its ability to respect guidelines: this is the capability study. The study was performed on 450 head and neck beams and on 100 prostate beams. Results Control charts, showing drifts, both slow and weak, and also both strong and fast, of mean and standard deviation have been established and have shown special cause introduced (manual shift of the leaf gap of the multi-leaf collimator). Correlation between dose measured at one point, given with the E.P.I.D. and the ionisation chamber has been evaluated at more than 97% and disagreement cases between the two measurements were identified. Conclusion The study allowed to

  5. Tidal controls on earthquake size-frequency statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ide, S.; Yabe, S.; Tanaka, Y.

    2016-12-01

    The possibility that tidal stresses can trigger earthquakes is a long-standing issue in seismology. Except in some special cases, a causal relationship between seismicity and the phase of tidal stress has been rejected on the basis of studies using many small events. However, recently discovered deep tectonic tremors are highly sensitive to tidal stress levels, with the relationship being governed by a nonlinear law according to which the tremor rate increases exponentially with increasing stress; thus, slow deformation (and the probability of earthquakes) may be enhanced during periods of large tidal stress. Here, we show the influence of tidal stress on seismicity by calculating histories of tidal shear stress during the 2-week period before earthquakes. Very large earthquakes tend to occur near the time of maximum tidal stress, but this tendency is not obvious for small earthquakes. Rather, we found that tidal stress controls the earthquake size-frequency statistics; i.e., the fraction of large events increases (i.e. the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation decreases) as the tidal shear stress increases. This correlation is apparent in data from the global catalog and in relatively homogeneous regional catalogues of earthquakes in Japan. The relationship is also reasonable, considering the well-known relationship between stress and the b-value. Our findings indicate that the probability of a tiny rock failure expanding to a gigantic rupture increases with increasing tidal stress levels. This finding has clear implications for probabilistic earthquake forecasting.

  6. Bayesian model selection techniques as decision support for shaping a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial: An example from a vertigo phase III study with longitudinal count data as primary endpoint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrion Christine

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A statistical analysis plan (SAP is a critical link between how a clinical trial is conducted and the clinical study report. To secure objective study results, regulatory bodies expect that the SAP will meet requirements in pre-specifying inferential analyses and other important statistical techniques. To write a good SAP for model-based sensitivity and ancillary analyses involves non-trivial decisions on and justification of many aspects of the chosen setting. In particular, trials with longitudinal count data as primary endpoints pose challenges for model choice and model validation. In the random effects setting, frequentist strategies for model assessment and model diagnosis are complex and not easily implemented and have several limitations. Therefore, it is of interest to explore Bayesian alternatives which provide the needed decision support to finalize a SAP. Methods We focus on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs for the analysis of longitudinal count data. A series of distributions with over- and under-dispersion is considered. Additionally, the structure of the variance components is modified. We perform a simulation study to investigate the discriminatory power of Bayesian tools for model criticism in different scenarios derived from the model setting. We apply the findings to the data from an open clinical trial on vertigo attacks. These data are seen as pilot data for an ongoing phase III trial. To fit GLMMs we use a novel Bayesian computational approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs. The INLA methodology enables the direct computation of leave-one-out predictive distributions. These distributions are crucial for Bayesian model assessment. We evaluate competing GLMMs for longitudinal count data according to the deviance information criterion (DIC or probability integral transform (PIT, and by using proper scoring rules (e.g. the logarithmic score. Results The instruments under study

  7. Bayesian model selection techniques as decision support for shaping a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial: an example from a vertigo phase III study with longitudinal count data as primary endpoint.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adrion, Christine; Mansmann, Ulrich

    2012-09-10

    A statistical analysis plan (SAP) is a critical link between how a clinical trial is conducted and the clinical study report. To secure objective study results, regulatory bodies expect that the SAP will meet requirements in pre-specifying inferential analyses and other important statistical techniques. To write a good SAP for model-based sensitivity and ancillary analyses involves non-trivial decisions on and justification of many aspects of the chosen setting. In particular, trials with longitudinal count data as primary endpoints pose challenges for model choice and model validation. In the random effects setting, frequentist strategies for model assessment and model diagnosis are complex and not easily implemented and have several limitations. Therefore, it is of interest to explore Bayesian alternatives which provide the needed decision support to finalize a SAP. We focus on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for the analysis of longitudinal count data. A series of distributions with over- and under-dispersion is considered. Additionally, the structure of the variance components is modified. We perform a simulation study to investigate the discriminatory power of Bayesian tools for model criticism in different scenarios derived from the model setting. We apply the findings to the data from an open clinical trial on vertigo attacks. These data are seen as pilot data for an ongoing phase III trial. To fit GLMMs we use a novel Bayesian computational approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs). The INLA methodology enables the direct computation of leave-one-out predictive distributions. These distributions are crucial for Bayesian model assessment. We evaluate competing GLMMs for longitudinal count data according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) or probability integral transform (PIT), and by using proper scoring rules (e.g. the logarithmic score). The instruments under study provide excellent tools for preparing decisions

  8. Applied Bayesian modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Congdon, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and data analysis, with an emphasis on the interpretation of real data sets. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, this book aims to make a wide range of statistical modeling applications accessible using tested code that can be readily adapted to the reader's own applications. The second edition has been thoroughly reworked and updated to take account of advances in the field. A new set of worked examples is included. The novel aspect of the first edition was the coverage of statistical modeling using WinBU

  9. Guideline implementation in clinical practice: Use of statistical process control charts as visual feedback devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fahad A Al-Hussein

    2009-01-01

    Conclusions: A process of audits in the context of statistical process control is necessary for any improvement in the implementation of guidelines in primary care. Statistical process control charts are an effective means of visual feedback to the care providers.

  10. An easy and low cost option for economic statistical process control ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An easy and low cost option for economic statistical process control using Excel. ... in both economic and economic statistical designs of the X-control chart. ... in this paper and the numerical examples illustrated are executed on this program.

  11. The Development of Bayesian Theory and Its Applications in Business and Bioinformatics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yifei

    2018-03-01

    Bayesian Theory originated from an Essay of a British mathematician named Thomas Bayes in 1763, and after its development in 20th century, Bayesian Statistics has been taking a significant part in statistical study of all fields. Due to the recent breakthrough of high-dimensional integral, Bayesian Statistics has been improved and perfected, and now it can be used to solve problems that Classical Statistics failed to solve. This paper summarizes Bayesian Statistics’ history, concepts and applications, which are illustrated in five parts: the history of Bayesian Statistics, the weakness of Classical Statistics, Bayesian Theory and its development and applications. The first two parts make a comparison between Bayesian Statistics and Classical Statistics in a macroscopic aspect. And the last three parts focus on Bayesian Theory in specific -- from introducing some particular Bayesian Statistics’ concepts to listing their development and finally their applications.

  12. Bayesian inference for the genetic control of water deficit tolerance in spring wheat by stochastic search variable selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safari, Parviz; Danyali, Syyedeh Fatemeh; Rahimi, Mehdi

    2018-06-02

    Drought is the main abiotic stress seriously influencing wheat production. Information about the inheritance of drought tolerance is necessary to determine the most appropriate strategy to develop tolerant cultivars and populations. In this study, generation means analysis to identify the genetic effects controlling grain yield inheritance in water deficit and normal conditions was considered as a model selection problem in a Bayesian framework. Stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) was applied to identify the most important genetic effects and the best fitted models using different generations obtained from two crosses applying two water regimes in two growing seasons. The SSVS is used to evaluate the effect of each variable on the dependent variable via posterior variable inclusion probabilities. The model with the highest posterior probability is selected as the best model. In this study, the grain yield was controlled by the main effects (additive and non-additive effects) and epistatic. The results demonstrate that breeding methods such as recurrent selection and subsequent pedigree method and hybrid production can be useful to improve grain yield.

  13. Bayesian theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A

    2013-01-01

    The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...

  14. Nonlinear and non-Gaussian Bayesian based handwriting beautification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Cao; Xiao, Jianguo; Xu, Canhui; Jia, Wenhua

    2013-03-01

    A framework is proposed in this paper to effectively and efficiently beautify handwriting by means of a novel nonlinear and non-Gaussian Bayesian algorithm. In the proposed framework, format and size of handwriting image are firstly normalized, and then typeface in computer system is applied to optimize vision effect of handwriting. The Bayesian statistics is exploited to characterize the handwriting beautification process as a Bayesian dynamic model. The model parameters to translate, rotate and scale typeface in computer system are controlled by state equation, and the matching optimization between handwriting and transformed typeface is employed by measurement equation. Finally, the new typeface, which is transformed from the original one and gains the best nonlinear and non-Gaussian optimization, is the beautification result of handwriting. Experimental results demonstrate the proposed framework provides a creative handwriting beautification methodology to improve visual acceptance.

  15. CONTROL BASED ON NUMERICAL METHODS AND RECURSIVE BAYESIAN ESTIMATION IN A CONTINUOUS ALCOHOLIC FERMENTATION PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga L. Quintero

    Full Text Available Biotechnological processes represent a challenge in the control field, due to their high nonlinearity. In particular, continuous alcoholic fermentation from Zymomonas mobilis (Z.m presents a significant challenge. This bioprocess has high ethanol performance, but it exhibits an oscillatory behavior in process variables due to the influence of inhibition dynamics (rate of ethanol concentration over biomass, substrate, and product concentrations. In this work a new solution for control of biotechnological variables in the fermentation process is proposed, based on numerical methods and linear algebra. In addition, an improvement to a previously reported state estimator, based on particle filtering techniques, is used in the control loop. The feasibility estimator and its performance are demonstrated in the proposed control loop. This methodology makes it possible to develop a controller design through the use of dynamic analysis with a tested biomass estimator in Z.m and without the use of complex calculations.

  16. Reaming process improvement and control: An application of statistical engineering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Pavel; Genta, G.; Barbato, G.

    2012-01-01

    A reaming operation had to be performed within given technological and economical constraints. Process improvement under realistic conditions was the goal of a statistical engineering project, supported by a comprehensive experimental investigation providing detailed information on single...

  17. 3rd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

    CERN Document Server

    Lanzarone, Ettore; Villalobos, Isadora; Mattei, Alessandra

    2017-01-01

    This book is a selection of peer-reviewed contributions presented at the third Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM 2016, Florence, Italy, June 19-21. The meeting provided a unique opportunity for young researchers, M.S. students, Ph.D. students, and postdocs dealing with Bayesian statistics to connect with the Bayesian community at large, to exchange ideas, and to network with others working in the same field. The contributions develop and apply Bayesian methods in a variety of fields, ranging from the traditional (e.g., biostatistics and reliability) to the most innovative ones (e.g., big data and networks).

  18. Approximate Bayesian computation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikael Sunnåker

    Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and approximations whose impact needs to be carefully assessed. Furthermore, the wider application domain of ABC exacerbates the challenges of parameter estimation and model selection. ABC has rapidly gained popularity over the last years and in particular for the analysis of complex problems arising in biological sciences (e.g., in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology, and systems biology.

  19. Bayesian programming

    CERN Document Server

    Bessiere, Pierre; Ahuactzin, Juan Manuel; Mekhnacha, Kamel

    2013-01-01

    Probability as an Alternative to Boolean LogicWhile logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain DataEmphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean

  20. Using Statistical Process Control to Drive Improvement in Neonatal Care: A Practical Introduction to Control Charts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Munish; Kaplan, Heather C

    2017-09-01

    Quality improvement (QI) is based on measuring performance over time, and variation in data measured over time must be understood to guide change and make optimal improvements. Common cause variation is natural variation owing to factors inherent to any process; special cause variation is unnatural variation owing to external factors. Statistical process control methods, and particularly control charts, are robust tools for understanding data over time and identifying common and special cause variation. This review provides a practical introduction to the use of control charts in health care QI, with a focus on neonatology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis : Applications to Developmental Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A G

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

  2. A gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis : Applications to developmental research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Schoot, R.; Kaplan, D.; Denissen, J.J.A.; Asendorpf, J.B.; Neyer, F.J.; van Aken, M.A.G.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

  3. Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom

    2013-02-01

    Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.

  4. Subjective Bayesian Beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.

    2015-01-01

    A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimenta...... economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule....

  5. Application of Statistical Process Control (SPC in it´s Quality control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Hernández-Pedrera

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The overall objective of this paper is to use the SPC to assess the possibility of improving the process of obtaining a sanitary device. As specific objectives we set out to identify the variables to be analyzed to enter the statistical control of process (SPC, analyze possible errors and variations indicated by the control charts in addition to evaluate and compare the results achieved with the study of SPC before and after monitoring direct in the production line were used sampling methods and laboratory replacement to determine the quality of the finished product, then statistical methods were applied seeking to emphasize the importance and contribution from its application to monitor corrective actions and support processes in production. It was shown that the process is under control because the results were found within established control limits. There is a tendency to be displaced toward one end of the boundary, the distribution exceeds the limits, creating the possibility that under certain conditions the process is out of control, the results also showed that the process being within the limits of quality control is operating far from the optimal conditions. In any of the study situations were obtained products outside the limits of weight and discoloration but defective products were obtained.

  6. Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Cripps

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine if the patterns of within-person responses on a 12 trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999. ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability, which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiralling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of within-person processes at the individual level, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques.

  7. Application of Fragment Ion Information as Further Evidence in Probabilistic Compound Screening Using Bayesian Statistics and Machine Learning: A Leap Toward Automation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woldegebriel, Michael; Zomer, Paul; Mol, Hans G J; Vivó-Truyols, Gabriel

    2016-08-02

    In this work, we introduce an automated, efficient, and elegant model to combine all pieces of evidence (e.g., expected retention times, peak shapes, isotope distributions, fragment-to-parent ratio) obtained from liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS/MS) data for screening purposes. Combining all these pieces of evidence requires a careful assessment of the uncertainties in the analytical system as well as all possible outcomes. To-date, the majority of the existing algorithms are highly dependent on user input parameters. Additionally, the screening process is tackled as a deterministic problem. In this work we present a Bayesian framework to deal with the combination of all these pieces of evidence. Contrary to conventional algorithms, the information is treated in a probabilistic way, and a final probability assessment of the presence/absence of a compound feature is computed. Additionally, all the necessary parameters except the chromatographic band broadening for the method are learned from the data in training and learning phase of the algorithm, avoiding the introduction of a large number of user-defined parameters. The proposed method was validated with a large data set and has shown improved sensitivity and specificity in comparison to a threshold-based commercial software package.

  8. Pitch Motion Stabilization by Propeller Speed Control Using Statistical Controller Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nakatani, Toshihiko; Blanke, Mogens; Galeazzi, Roberto

    2006-01-01

    This paper describes dynamics analysis of a small training boat and a possibility of ship pitch stabilization by control of propeller speed. After upgrading the navigational system of an actual small training boat, in order to identify the model of the ship, the real data collected by sea trials...... were used for statistical analysis and system identification. This analysis shows that the pitching motion is indeed influenced by engine speed and it is suggested that there exists a possibility of reducing the pitching motion by properly controlling the engine throttle. Based on this observation...

  9. Structure-based bayesian sparse reconstruction

    KAUST Repository

    Quadeer, Ahmed Abdul; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.

    2012-01-01

    Sparse signal reconstruction algorithms have attracted research attention due to their wide applications in various fields. In this paper, we present a simple Bayesian approach that utilizes the sparsity constraint and a priori statistical

  10. Bayesian inverse modeling of the atmospheric transport and emissions of a controlled tracer release from a nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lucas, Donald D.; Simpson, Matthew; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Baskett, Ronald L.

    2017-01-01

    Probability distribution functions (PDFs) of model inputs that affect the transport and dispersion of a trace gas released from a coastal California nuclear power plant are quantified using ensemble simulations, machine-learning algorithms, and Bayesian inversion. The PDFs are constrained by observations of tracer concentrations and account for uncertainty in meteorology, transport, diffusion, and emissions. Meteorological uncertainty is calculated using an ensemble of simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that samples five categories of model inputs (initialization time, boundary layer physics, land surface model, nudging options, and reanalysis data). The WRF output is used to drive tens of thousands of FLEXPART dispersion simulations that sample a uniform distribution of six emissions inputs. Machine-learning algorithms are trained on the ensemble data and used to quantify the sources of ensemble variability and to infer, via inverse modeling, the values of the 11 model inputs most consistent with tracer measurements. We find a substantial ensemble spread in tracer concentrations (factors of 10 to 10 3 ), most of which is due to changing emissions inputs (about 80 %), though the cumulative effects of meteorological variations are not negligible. The performance of the inverse method is verified using synthetic observations generated from arbitrarily selected simulations. When applied to measurements from a controlled tracer release experiment, the inverse method satisfactorily determines the location, start time, duration and amount. In a 2 km x 2 km area of possible locations, the actual location is determined to within 200 m. The start time is determined to within 5 min out of 2 h, and the duration to within 50 min out of 4 h. Over a range of release amounts of 10 to 1000 kg, the estimated amount exceeds the actual amount of 146 kg by only 32 kg. The inversion also estimates probabilities of different WRF configurations. To best match

  11. Bayesian inverse modeling of the atmospheric transport and emissions of a controlled tracer release from a nuclear power plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lucas, Donald D.; Simpson, Matthew; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Baskett, Ronald L. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-07-01

    Probability distribution functions (PDFs) of model inputs that affect the transport and dispersion of a trace gas released from a coastal California nuclear power plant are quantified using ensemble simulations, machine-learning algorithms, and Bayesian inversion. The PDFs are constrained by observations of tracer concentrations and account for uncertainty in meteorology, transport, diffusion, and emissions. Meteorological uncertainty is calculated using an ensemble of simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that samples five categories of model inputs (initialization time, boundary layer physics, land surface model, nudging options, and reanalysis data). The WRF output is used to drive tens of thousands of FLEXPART dispersion simulations that sample a uniform distribution of six emissions inputs. Machine-learning algorithms are trained on the ensemble data and used to quantify the sources of ensemble variability and to infer, via inverse modeling, the values of the 11 model inputs most consistent with tracer measurements. We find a substantial ensemble spread in tracer concentrations (factors of 10 to 10{sup 3}), most of which is due to changing emissions inputs (about 80 %), though the cumulative effects of meteorological variations are not negligible. The performance of the inverse method is verified using synthetic observations generated from arbitrarily selected simulations. When applied to measurements from a controlled tracer release experiment, the inverse method satisfactorily determines the location, start time, duration and amount. In a 2 km x 2 km area of possible locations, the actual location is determined to within 200 m. The start time is determined to within 5 min out of 2 h, and the duration to within 50 min out of 4 h. Over a range of release amounts of 10 to 1000 kg, the estimated amount exceeds the actual amount of 146 kg by only 32 kg. The inversion also estimates probabilities of different WRF configurations. To best

  12. Topological and statistical properties of quantum control transition landscapes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsieh, Michael; Wu Rebing; Rabitz, Herschel; Rosenthal, Carey

    2008-01-01

    A puzzle arising in the control of quantum dynamics is to explain the relative ease with which high-quality control solutions can be found in the laboratory and in simulations. The emerging explanation appears to lie in the nature of the quantum control landscape, which is an observable as a function of the control variables. This work considers the common case of the observable being the transition probability between an initial and a target state. For any controllable quantum system, this landscape contains only global maxima and minima, and no local extrema traps. The probability distribution function for the landscape value is used to calculate the relative volume of the region of the landscape corresponding to good control solutions. The topology of the global optima of the landscape is analysed and the optima are shown to have inherent robustness to variations in the controls. Although the relative landscape volume of good control solutions is found to shrink rapidly as the system Hilbert space dimension increases, the highly favourable landscape topology at and away from the global optima provides a rationale for understanding the relative ease of finding high-quality, stable quantum optimal control solutions

  13. Bayesian Graphical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2016-01-01

    Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes...

  14. Vital statistics

    CERN Document Server

    MacKenzie, Dana

    2004-01-01

    The drawbacks of using 19th-century mathematics in physics and astronomy are illustrated. To continue with the expansion of the knowledge about the cosmos, the scientists will have to come in terms with modern statistics. Some researchers have deliberately started importing techniques that are used in medical research. However, the physicists need to identify the brand of statistics that will be suitable for them, and make a choice between the Bayesian and the frequentists approach. (Edited abstract).

  15. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas D.; Rumi, Rafael; Salmeron, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability techniques (like fault trees and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (the so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability.

  16. Polarised neutron diffraction measurements of PrBa2Cu3O6+X and Bayesian statistical analysis of such data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markvardsen, A.J.

    2000-01-01

    The physics of the series Pr y Y 1-y Ba 2 CU 3 O 6+x , and ability of Pr to suppress superconductivity, has been a subject of frequent discussions in the literature for more than a decade. This thesis describes a polarised neutron diffraction (PND) experiment performed on PrBa 2 Cu 3 O 6.24 designed to find out something about the electron structure. This experiment pushed the limits of what can be done using the PND technique. The problem is one of a limited number of measured Fourier components that need to be inverted to form a real space image. To accomplish this inversion the maximum entropy technique has been employed. In some cases, the maximum entropy technique has the ability to increase the resolution of 'inverted' data immensely, but this ability is found to depend critically on the choice of constants used in the method. To investigate this a Bayesian robustness analysis of the maximum entropy method is carried out, resulting in an improvement of the maximum entropy technique for analysing PND data. Some results for nickel in the literature have been te-analysed and a comparison is made with different maximum entropy algorithms. Equipped with an improved data analysis technique and carefully measured PND data for PrBa 2 Cu 3 O 6.24 a number of new interesting features are observed, putting constraints on existing theoretical models of Pr y Y 1-y Ba 2 Cu 3 O 6+x and leaving room for more questions to be answered. (author)

  17. Medicaid Fraud Control Units (MFCU) Annual Spending and Performance Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — Medicaid Fraud Control Units (MFCU or Unit) investigate and prosecute Medicaid fraud as well as patient abuse and neglect in health care facilities. OIG certifies,...

  18. The Use of Statistical Methods in Dimensional Process Control

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Krajcsik, Stephen

    1985-01-01

    ... erection. To achieve this high degree of unit accuracy, we have begun a pilot dimensional control program that has set the guidelines for systematically monitoring each stage of the production process prior to erection...

  19. A Total Quality-Control Plan with Right-Sized Statistical Quality-Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgard, James O

    2017-03-01

    A new Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments option for risk-based quality-control (QC) plans became effective in January, 2016. Called an Individualized QC Plan, this option requires the laboratory to perform a risk assessment, develop a QC plan, and implement a QC program to monitor ongoing performance of the QC plan. Difficulties in performing a risk assessment may limit validity of an Individualized QC Plan. A better alternative is to develop a Total QC Plan including a right-sized statistical QC procedure to detect medically important errors. Westgard Sigma Rules provides a simple way to select the right control rules and the right number of control measurements. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  1. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  2. To control with health: from statistics to strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsson, Johan; Landstad, Bodil; Vinberg, Stig

    2009-01-01

    The main purpose of this study is to develop and test a generic model for workplace health management in organizations. Four private and four public organizations in northern Sweden were selected for the study. A model for health control was developed on the basis of a literature review and dialogues with the stakeholders in the workplaces. The model was then implemented at the workplaces during a two-year period. Interviews with leaders and co-workers were conducted on two occasions and were analyzed using content analysis and the constant comparison method. By using a grounded theory approach, three main categories were found: health closure and other health and working environment indicators, monetary accounting of health related indicators and changes in leadership behaviour and organizational practices. An important result was that the model influenced leadership values more than leadership and organizational methodologies. From the results a model for workplace health management is proposed, incorporating the planning, control, and improvement structures. The purpose of the model is to take health aspects into consideration when deciding organizational structure (work demands, control and social support). The model controls health by using health-related indicators with high frequency measuring whereas workplace health promotion is done in a structured way with a reflective model.

  3. Statistical Data Mining for Efficient Quality Control in Manufacturing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Abdul Rauf; Schiøler, Henrik; Knudsen, Torben Steen

    2015-01-01

    of the process e.g sensor measurements, machine readings etc, and the major contributor of these big data sets are different quality control processes. In this article we will present methodology to extract valuable insight from manufacturing data. The proposed methodology is based on comparison of probabilities...

  4. Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuelin; Lord-Bessen, Jennifer; Shiyko, Mariya; Loeb, Rebecca

    2018-01-01

    This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles. Technical difficulties are addressed by a hypothetical, worked-out example. We show how Bayesian computation can be broken down into a series of simpler calculations, which can then be assembled together to complete a computationally more complex model. The details are described much more explicitly than what is typically available in elementary introductions to Bayesian modeling so that readers are not overwhelmed by the mathematics. Moreover, the provided computer program shows how Bayesian LCA can be implemented with relative ease. The computer program is then applied in a large, real-world data set and explained line-by-line. We outline the general steps in how to extend these considerations to other methodological applications. We conclude with suggestions for further readings.

  5. An easy and low cost option for economic statistical process control ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    a large number of nonconforming products are manufactured. ... size, n, sampling interval, h, and control limit parameter, k, that minimize the ...... [11] Montgomery DC, 2001, Introduction to statistical quality control, 4th Edition, John Wiley, New.

  6. Using Statistical Process Control to Make Data-Based Clinical Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfadt, Al; Wheeler, Donald J.

    1995-01-01

    Statistical process control (SPC), which employs simple statistical tools and problem-solving techniques such as histograms, control charts, flow charts, and Pareto charts to implement continual product improvement procedures, can be incorporated into human service organizations. Examples illustrate use of SPC procedures to analyze behavioral data…

  7. Statistical Process Control Charts for Measuring and Monitoring Temporal Consistency of Ratings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omar, M. Hafidz

    2010-01-01

    Methods of statistical process control were briefly investigated in the field of educational measurement as early as 1999. However, only the use of a cumulative sum chart was explored. In this article other methods of statistical quality control are introduced and explored. In particular, methods in the form of Shewhart mean and standard deviation…

  8. The product composition control system at Savannah River: Statistical process control algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, K.G.

    1994-01-01

    The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at the Savannah River Site (SRS) will be used to immobilize the approximately 130 million liters of high-level nuclear waste currently stored at the site in 51 carbon steel tanks. Waste handling operations separate this waste into highly radioactive insoluble sludge and precipitate and less radioactive water soluble salts. In DWPF, precipitate (PHA) is blended with insoluble sludge and ground glass frit to produce melter feed slurry which is continuously fed to the DWPF melter. The melter produces a molten borosilicate glass which is poured into stainless steel canisters for cooling and, ultimately, shipment to and storage in an geologic repository. Described here is the Product Composition Control System (PCCS) process control algorithm. The PCCS is the amalgam of computer hardware and software intended to ensure that the melt will be processable and that the glass wasteform produced will be acceptable. Within PCCS, the Statistical Process Control (SPC) Algorithm is the means which guides control of the DWPF process. The SPC Algorithm is necessary to control the multivariate DWPF process in the face of uncertainties arising from the process, its feeds, sampling, modeling, and measurement systems. This article describes the functions performed by the SPC Algorithm, characterization of DWPF prior to making product, accounting for prediction uncertainty, accounting for measurement uncertainty, monitoring a SME batch, incorporating process information, and advantages of the algorithm. 9 refs., 6 figs

  9. Inter-vehicle gap statistics on signal-controlled crossroads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krbalek, Milan

    2008-01-01

    We investigate a microscopical structure in a chain of cars waiting at a red signal on signal-controlled crossroads. A one-dimensional space-continuous thermodynamical model leading to an excellent agreement with the data measured is presented. Moreover, we demonstrate that an inter-vehicle spacing distribution disclosed in relevant traffic data agrees with the thermal-balance distribution of particles in the thermodynamical traffic gas (discussed in [1]) with a high inverse temperature (corresponding to a strong traffic congestion). Therefore, as we affirm, such a system of stationary cars can be understood as a specific state of the traffic sample operating inside a congested traffic stream

  10. 2nd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

    CERN Document Server

    Bitto, Angela; Kastner, Gregor; Posekany, Alexandra

    2015-01-01

    The Second Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (BAYSM 2014) and the research presented here facilitate connections among researchers using Bayesian Statistics by providing a forum for the development and exchange of ideas. WU Vienna University of Business and Economics hosted BAYSM 2014 from September 18th to 19th. The guidance of renowned plenary lecturers and senior discussants is a critical part of the meeting and this volume, which follows publication of contributions from BAYSM 2013. The meeting's scientific program reflected the variety of fields in which Bayesian methods are currently employed or could be introduced in the future. Three brilliant keynote lectures by Chris Holmes (University of Oxford), Christian Robert (Université Paris-Dauphine), and Mike West (Duke University), were complemented by 24 plenary talks covering the major topics Dynamic Models, Applications, Bayesian Nonparametrics, Biostatistics, Bayesian Methods in Economics, and Models and Methods, as well as a lively poster session ...

  11. Towards Bayesian Inference of the Fast-Ion Distribution Function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stagner, L.; Heidbrink, W.W.; Salewski, Mirko

    2012-01-01

    sensitivity of the measurements are incorporated into Bayesian likelihood probabilities, while prior probabilities enforce physical constraints. As an initial step, this poster uses Bayesian statistics to infer the DIII-D electron density profile from multiple diagnostic measurements. Likelihood functions....... However, when theory and experiment disagree (for one or more diagnostics), it is unclear how to proceed. Bayesian statistics provides a framework to infer the DF, quantify errors, and reconcile discrepant diagnostic measurements. Diagnostic errors and ``weight functions" that describe the phase space...

  12. Bayesian Sampling using Condition Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael H.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2002-01-01

    of condition indicators introduced by Benjamin and Cornell (1970) a Bayesian approach to quality control is formulated. The formulation is then extended to the case where the quality control is based on sampling of indirect information about the condition of the components, i.e. condition indicators...

  13. SU-E-T-144: Bayesian Inference of Local Relapse Data Using a Poisson-Based Tumour Control Probability Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    La Russa, D [The Ottawa Hospital Cancer Centre, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: The purpose of this project is to develop a robust method of parameter estimation for a Poisson-based TCP model using Bayesian inference. Methods: Bayesian inference was performed using the PyMC3 probabilistic programming framework written in Python. A Poisson-based TCP regression model that accounts for clonogen proliferation was fit to observed rates of local relapse as a function of equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions for a population of 623 stage-I non-small-cell lung cancer patients. The Slice Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm was used to sample the posterior distributions, and was initiated using the maximum of the posterior distributions found by optimization. The calculation of TCP with each sample step required integration over the free parameter α, which was performed using an adaptive 24-point Gauss-Legendre quadrature. Convergence was verified via inspection of the trace plot and posterior distribution for each of the fit parameters, as well as with comparisons of the most probable parameter values with their respective maximum likelihood estimates. Results: Posterior distributions for α, the standard deviation of α (σ), the average tumour cell-doubling time (Td), and the repopulation delay time (Tk), were generated assuming α/β = 10 Gy, and a fixed clonogen density of 10{sup 7} cm−{sup 3}. Posterior predictive plots generated from samples from these posterior distributions are in excellent agreement with the observed rates of local relapse used in the Bayesian inference. The most probable values of the model parameters also agree well with maximum likelihood estimates. Conclusion: A robust method of performing Bayesian inference of TCP data using a complex TCP model has been established.

  14. Image-guided radiotherapy quality control: Statistical process control using image similarity metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiraishi, Satomi; Grams, Michael P; Fong de Los Santos, Luis E

    2018-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to demonstrate an objective quality control framework for the image review process. A total of 927 cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) registrations were retrospectively analyzed for 33 bilateral head and neck cancer patients who received definitive radiotherapy. Two registration tracking volumes (RTVs) - cervical spine (C-spine) and mandible - were defined, within which a similarity metric was calculated and used as a registration quality tracking metric over the course of treatment. First, sensitivity to large misregistrations was analyzed for normalized cross-correlation (NCC) and mutual information (MI) in the context of statistical analysis. The distribution of metrics was obtained for displacements that varied according to a normal distribution with standard deviation of σ = 2 mm, and the detectability of displacements greater than 5 mm was investigated. Then, similarity metric control charts were created using a statistical process control (SPC) framework to objectively monitor the image registration and review process. Patient-specific control charts were created using NCC values from the first five fractions to set a patient-specific process capability limit. Population control charts were created using the average of the first five NCC values for all patients in the study. For each patient, the similarity metrics were calculated as a function of unidirectional translation, referred to as the effective displacement. Patient-specific action limits corresponding to 5 mm effective displacements were defined. Furthermore, effective displacements of the ten registrations with the lowest similarity metrics were compared with a three dimensional (3DoF) couch displacement required to align the anatomical landmarks. Normalized cross-correlation identified suboptimal registrations more effectively than MI within the framework of SPC. Deviations greater than 5 mm were detected at 2.8σ and 2.1σ from the mean for NCC and MI

  15. Use of statistical process control in the production of blood components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Magnussen, K; Quere, S; Winkel, P

    2008-01-01

    Introduction of statistical process control in the setting of a small blood centre was tested, both on the regular red blood cell production and specifically to test if a difference was seen in the quality of the platelets produced, when a change was made from a relatively large inexperienced...... by an experienced staff with four technologists. We applied statistical process control to examine if time series of quality control values were in statistical control. Leucocyte count in red blood cells was out of statistical control. Platelet concentration and volume of the platelets produced by the occasional...... occasional component manufacturing staff to an experienced regular manufacturing staff. Production of blood products is a semi-automated process in which the manual steps may be difficult to control. This study was performed in an ongoing effort to improve the control and optimize the quality of the blood...

  16. Use of statistical process control in evaluation of academic performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ezequiel Gibbon Gautério

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article was to study some indicators of academic performance (number of students per class, dropout rate, failure rate and scores obtained by the students to identify a pattern of behavior that would enable to implement improvements in the teaching-learning process. The sample was composed of five classes of undergraduate courses in Engineering. The data were collected for three years. Initially an exploratory analysis with analytical and graphical techniques was performed. An analysis of variance and Tukey’s test investigated some sources of variability. This information was used in the construction of control charts. We have found evidence that classes with more students are associated with higher failure rates and lower mean. Moreover, when the course was later in the curriculum, the students had higher scores. The results showed that although they have been detected some special causes interfering in the process, it was possible to stabilize it and to monitor it.

  17. Statistical method for quality control in presence of measurement errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauer-Peccoud, M.R.

    1998-01-01

    In a quality inspection of a set of items where the measurements of values of a quality characteristic of the item are contaminated by random errors, one can take wrong decisions which are damageable to the quality. So of is important to control the risks in such a way that a final quality level is insured. We consider that an item is defective or not if the value G of its quality characteristic is larger or smaller than a given level g. We assume that, due to the lack of precision of the measurement instrument, the measurement M of this characteristic is expressed by ∫ (G) + ξ where f is an increasing function such that the value ∫ (g 0 ) is known and ξ is a random error with mean zero and given variance. First we study the problem of the determination of a critical measure m such that a specified quality target is reached after the classification of a lot of items where each item is accepted or rejected depending on whether its measurement is smaller or greater than m. Then we analyse the problem of testing the global quality of a lot from the measurements for a example of items taken from the lot. For these two kinds of problems and for different quality targets, we propose solutions emphasizing on the case where the function ∫ is linear and the error ξ and the variable G are Gaussian. Simulation results allow to appreciate the efficiency of the different considered control procedures and their robustness with respect to deviations from the assumptions used in the theoretical derivations. (author)

  18. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2010-01-01

    Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

  19. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2003-01-01

    As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.

  20. Parameter Control of Genetic Algorithms by Learning and Simulation of Bayesian Networks——A Case Study for the Optimal Ordering of Tables

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Concha Bielza; Juan A.Fernández del Pozo; Pedro Larra(n)aga

    2013-01-01

    Parameter setting for evolutionary algorithms is still an important issue in evolutionary computation.There are two main approaches to parameter setting:parameter tuning and parameter control.In this paper,we introduce self-adaptive parameter control of a genetic algorithm based on Bayesian network learning and simulation.The nodes of this Bayesian network are genetic algorithm parameters to be controlled.Its structure captures probabilistic conditional (in)dependence relationships between the parameters.They are learned from the best individuals,i.e.,the best configurations of the genetic algorithm.Individuals are evaluated by running the genetic algorithm for the respective parameter configuration.Since all these runs are time-consuming tasks,each genetic algorithm uses a small-sized population and is stopped before convergence.In this way promising individuals should not be lost.Experiments with an optimal search problem for simultaneous row and column orderings yield the same optima as state-of-the-art methods but with a sharp reduction in computational time.Moreover,our approach can cope with as yet unsolved high-dimensional problems.

  1. Statistical Control Charts: Performances of Short Term Stock Trading in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dumičić Ksenija

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The stock exchange, as a regulated financial market, in modern economies reflects their economic development level. The stock market indicates the mood of investors in the development of a country and is an important ingredient for growth. Objectives: This paper aims to introduce an additional statistical tool used to support the decision-making process in stock trading, and it investigate the usage of statistical process control (SPC methods into the stock trading process. Methods/Approach: The individual (I, exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA and cumulative sum (CUSUM control charts were used for gaining trade signals. The open and the average prices of CROBEX10 index stocks on the Zagreb Stock Exchange were used in the analysis. The statistical control charts capabilities for stock trading in the short-run were analysed. Results: The statistical control chart analysis pointed out too many signals to buy or sell stocks. Most of them are considered as false alarms. So, the statistical control charts showed to be not so much useful in stock trading or in a portfolio analysis. Conclusions: The presence of non-normality and autocorellation has great impact on statistical control charts performances. It is assumed that if these two problems are solved, the use of statistical control charts in a portfolio analysis could be greatly improved.

  2. Pengendalian Kualitas Kertas Dengan Menggunakan Statistical Process Control di Paper Machine 3

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vera Devani

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this research is to determine types and causes of defects commonly found in Paper Machine 3 by using statistical process control (SPC method.  Statistical process control (SPC is a technique for solving problems and is used to monitor, control, analyze, manage and improve products and processes using statistical methods.  Based on Pareto Diagrams, wavy defect is found as the most frequent defect, which is 81.7%.  Human factor, meanwhile, is found as the main cause of defect, primarily due to lack of understanding on machinery and lack of training both leading to errors in data input.

  3. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    This article proposes Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared to conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian mediation analysis, inference is straightforward and exact, which makes it appealing for studies with small samples. Third, the Bayesian approach is conceptua...

  4. Statistical applications for chemistry, manufacturing and controls (CMC) in the pharmaceutical industry

    CERN Document Server

    Burdick, Richard K; Pfahler, Lori B; Quiroz, Jorge; Sidor, Leslie; Vukovinsky, Kimberly; Zhang, Lanju

    2017-01-01

    This book examines statistical techniques that are critically important to Chemistry, Manufacturing, and Control (CMC) activities. Statistical methods are presented with a focus on applications unique to the CMC in the pharmaceutical industry. The target audience consists of statisticians and other scientists who are responsible for performing statistical analyses within a CMC environment. Basic statistical concepts are addressed in Chapter 2 followed by applications to specific topics related to development and manufacturing. The mathematical level assumes an elementary understanding of statistical methods. The ability to use Excel or statistical packages such as Minitab, JMP, SAS, or R will provide more value to the reader. The motivation for this book came from an American Association of Pharmaceutical Scientists (AAPS) short course on statistical methods applied to CMC applications presented by four of the authors. One of the course participants asked us for a good reference book, and the only book recomm...

  5. Toward improved prediction of the bedrock depth underneath hillslopes: Bayesian inference of the bottom-up control hypothesis using high-resolution topographic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Guilherme J. C.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Vargas, Eurípedes A.

    2016-04-01

    The depth to bedrock controls a myriad of processes by influencing subsurface flow paths, erosion rates, soil moisture, and water uptake by plant roots. As hillslope interiors are very difficult and costly to illuminate and access, the topography of the bedrock surface is largely unknown. This essay is concerned with the prediction of spatial patterns in the depth to bedrock (DTB) using high-resolution topographic data, numerical modeling, and Bayesian analysis. Our DTB model builds on the bottom-up control on fresh-bedrock topography hypothesis of Rempe and Dietrich (2014) and includes a mass movement and bedrock-valley morphology term to extent the usefulness and general applicability of the model. We reconcile the DTB model with field observations using Bayesian analysis with the DREAM algorithm. We investigate explicitly the benefits of using spatially distributed parameter values to account implicitly, and in a relatively simple way, for rock mass heterogeneities that are very difficult, if not impossible, to characterize adequately in the field. We illustrate our method using an artificial data set of bedrock depth observations and then evaluate our DTB model with real-world data collected at the Papagaio river basin in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Our results demonstrate that the DTB model predicts accurately the observed bedrock depth data. The posterior mean DTB simulation is shown to be in good agreement with the measured data. The posterior prediction uncertainty of the DTB model can be propagated forward through hydromechanical models to derive probabilistic estimates of factors of safety.

  6. Comparing energy sources for surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation: a Bayesian network meta-analysis of randomized, controlled trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phan, Kevin; Xie, Ashleigh; Kumar, Narendra; Wong, Sophia; Medi, Caroline; La Meir, Mark; Yan, Tristan D

    2015-08-01

    Simplified maze procedures involving radiofrequency, cryoenergy and microwave energy sources have been increasingly utilized for surgical treatment of atrial fibrillation as an alternative to the traditional cut-and-sew approach. In the absence of direct comparisons, a Bayesian network meta-analysis is another alternative to assess the relative effect of different treatments, using indirect evidence. A Bayesian meta-analysis of indirect evidence was performed using 16 published randomized trials identified from 6 databases. Rank probability analysis was used to rank each intervention in terms of their probability of having the best outcome. Sinus rhythm prevalence beyond the 12-month follow-up was similar between the cut-and-sew, microwave and radiofrequency approaches, which were all ranked better than cryoablation (respectively, 39, 36, and 25 vs 1%). The cut-and-sew maze was ranked worst in terms of mortality outcomes compared with microwave, radiofrequency and cryoenergy (2 vs 19, 34, and 24%, respectively). The cut-and-sew maze procedure was associated with significantly lower stroke rates compared with microwave ablation [odds ratio <0.01; 95% confidence interval 0.00, 0.82], and ranked the best in terms of pacemaker requirements compared with microwave, radiofrequency and cryoenergy (81 vs 14, and 1, <0.01% respectively). Bayesian rank probability analysis shows that the cut-and-sew approach is associated with the best outcomes in terms of sinus rhythm prevalence and stroke outcomes, and remains the gold standard approach for AF treatment. Given the limitations of indirect comparison analysis, these results should be viewed with caution and not over-interpreted. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  7. Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-09

    inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle

  8. Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 369, č. 1 (2016), s. 532-547 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Ideal distribution * Minimum cross-entropy principle * Bayesian conditioning * Kullback-Leibler divergence * Bayesian nonparametric modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.832, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/karny-0463052.pdf

  9. A Bayesian Method for Weighted Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Lo, Albert Y.

    1993-01-01

    Bayesian statistical inference for sampling from weighted distribution models is studied. Small-sample Bayesian bootstrap clone (BBC) approximations to the posterior distribution are discussed. A second-order property for the BBC in unweighted i.i.d. sampling is given. A consequence is that BBC approximations to a posterior distribution of the mean and to the sampling distribution of the sample average, can be made asymptotically accurate by a proper choice of the random variables that genera...

  10. Using a Bayesian Probabilistic Forecasting Model to Analyze the Uncertainty in Real-Time Dynamic Control of the Flood Limiting Water Level for Reservoir Operation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Dedi; Li, Xiang; Guo, Shenglian

    2015-01-01

    Dynamic control of the flood limiting water level (FLWL) is a valuable and effective way to maximize the benefits from reservoir operation without exceeding the design risk. In order to analyze the impacts of input uncertainty, a Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) is adopted. Applying quantile water...... inflow values and their uncertainties obtained from the BFS, the reservoir operation results from different schemes can be analyzed in terms of benefits, dam safety, and downstream impacts during the flood season. When the reservoir FLWL dynamic control operation is implemented, there are two fundamental......, also deterministic water inflow was tested. The proposed model in the paper emphasizes the importance of analyzing the uncertainties of the water inflow forecasting system for real-time dynamic control of the FLWL for reservoir operation. For the case study, the selected quantile inflow from...

  11. Statistical process control as a tool for controlling operating room performance: retrospective analysis and benchmarking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Tsung-Tai; Chang, Yun-Jau; Ku, Shei-Ling; Chung, Kuo-Piao

    2010-10-01

    There is much research using statistical process control (SPC) to monitor surgical performance, including comparisons among groups to detect small process shifts, but few of these studies have included a stabilization process. This study aimed to analyse the performance of surgeons in operating room (OR) and set a benchmark by SPC after stabilized process. The OR profile of 499 patients who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy performed by 16 surgeons at a tertiary hospital in Taiwan during 2005 and 2006 were recorded. SPC was applied to analyse operative and non-operative times using the following five steps: first, the times were divided into two segments; second, they were normalized; third, they were evaluated as individual processes; fourth, the ARL(0) was calculated;, and fifth, the different groups (surgeons) were compared. Outliers were excluded to ensure stability for each group and to facilitate inter-group comparison. The results showed that in the stabilized process, only one surgeon exhibited a significantly shorter total process time (including operative time and non-operative time). In this study, we use five steps to demonstrate how to control surgical and non-surgical time in phase I. There are some measures that can be taken to prevent skew and instability in the process. Also, using SPC, one surgeon can be shown to be a real benchmark. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  12. Improving the Document Development Process: Integrating Relational Data and Statistical Process Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, John

    1994-01-01

    Presents an approach to document numbering, document titling, and process measurement which, when used with fundamental techniques of statistical process control, reveals meaningful process-element variation as well as nominal productivity models. (SR)

  13. Experience in statistical quality control for road construction in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mitchell, MF

    1977-06-01

    Full Text Available of statistically oriented acceptance control procedures to a major road construction project is examined and it is concluded that such procedures promise to be of benefit to both the client and the contractor....

  14. Development of nuclear power plant online monitoring system using statistical quality control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, Sang Ha

    2006-02-01

    Statistical Quality Control techniques have been applied to many aspects of industrial engineering. An application to nuclear power plant maintenance and control is also presented that can greatly improve plant safety. As a demonstration of such an approach, a specific system is analyzed: the reactor coolant pumps (RCP) and the fouling resistance of heat exchanger. This research uses Shewart X-bar, R charts, Cumulative Sum charts (CUSUM), and Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) to analyze the process for the state of statistical control. And we made Control Chart Analyzer (CCA) to support these analyses that can make a decision of error in process. The analysis shows that statistical process control methods can be applied as an early warning system capable of identifying significant equipment problems well in advance of traditional control room alarm indicators. Such a system would provide operators with enough time to respond to possible emergency situations and thus improve plant safety and reliability

  15. Interrupted Time Series Versus Statistical Process Control in Quality Improvement Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson Hagiwara, Magnus; Andersson Gäre, Boel; Elg, Mattias

    2016-01-01

    To measure the effect of quality improvement interventions, it is appropriate to use analysis methods that measure data over time. Examples of such methods include statistical process control analysis and interrupted time series with segmented regression analysis. This article compares the use of statistical process control analysis and interrupted time series with segmented regression analysis for evaluating the longitudinal effects of quality improvement interventions, using an example study on an evaluation of a computerized decision support system.

  16. Multileaf collimator performance monitoring and improvement using semiautomated quality control testing and statistical process control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Létourneau, Daniel; McNiven, Andrea; Keller, Harald; Wang, An; Amin, Md Nurul; Pearce, Jim; Norrlinger, Bernhard; Jaffray, David A.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: High-quality radiation therapy using highly conformal dose distributions and image-guided techniques requires optimum machine delivery performance. In this work, a monitoring system for multileaf collimator (MLC) performance, integrating semiautomated MLC quality control (QC) tests and statistical process control tools, was developed. The MLC performance monitoring system was used for almost a year on two commercially available MLC models. Control charts were used to establish MLC performance and assess test frequency required to achieve a given level of performance. MLC-related interlocks and servicing events were recorded during the monitoring period and were investigated as indicators of MLC performance variations. Methods: The QC test developed as part of the MLC performance monitoring system uses 2D megavoltage images (acquired using an electronic portal imaging device) of 23 fields to determine the location of the leaves with respect to the radiation isocenter. The precision of the MLC performance monitoring QC test and the MLC itself was assessed by detecting the MLC leaf positions on 127 megavoltage images of a static field. After initial calibration, the MLC performance monitoring QC test was performed 3–4 times/week over a period of 10–11 months to monitor positional accuracy of individual leaves for two different MLC models. Analysis of test results was performed using individuals control charts per leaf with control limits computed based on the measurements as well as two sets of specifications of ±0.5 and ±1 mm. Out-of-specification and out-of-control leaves were automatically flagged by the monitoring system and reviewed monthly by physicists. MLC-related interlocks reported by the linear accelerator and servicing events were recorded to help identify potential causes of nonrandom MLC leaf positioning variations. Results: The precision of the MLC performance monitoring QC test and the MLC itself was within ±0.22 mm for most MLC leaves

  17. Multileaf collimator performance monitoring and improvement using semiautomated quality control testing and statistical process control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Létourneau, Daniel; Wang, An; Amin, Md Nurul; Pearce, Jim; McNiven, Andrea; Keller, Harald; Norrlinger, Bernhard; Jaffray, David A

    2014-12-01

    High-quality radiation therapy using highly conformal dose distributions and image-guided techniques requires optimum machine delivery performance. In this work, a monitoring system for multileaf collimator (MLC) performance, integrating semiautomated MLC quality control (QC) tests and statistical process control tools, was developed. The MLC performance monitoring system was used for almost a year on two commercially available MLC models. Control charts were used to establish MLC performance and assess test frequency required to achieve a given level of performance. MLC-related interlocks and servicing events were recorded during the monitoring period and were investigated as indicators of MLC performance variations. The QC test developed as part of the MLC performance monitoring system uses 2D megavoltage images (acquired using an electronic portal imaging device) of 23 fields to determine the location of the leaves with respect to the radiation isocenter. The precision of the MLC performance monitoring QC test and the MLC itself was assessed by detecting the MLC leaf positions on 127 megavoltage images of a static field. After initial calibration, the MLC performance monitoring QC test was performed 3-4 times/week over a period of 10-11 months to monitor positional accuracy of individual leaves for two different MLC models. Analysis of test results was performed using individuals control charts per leaf with control limits computed based on the measurements as well as two sets of specifications of ± 0.5 and ± 1 mm. Out-of-specification and out-of-control leaves were automatically flagged by the monitoring system and reviewed monthly by physicists. MLC-related interlocks reported by the linear accelerator and servicing events were recorded to help identify potential causes of nonrandom MLC leaf positioning variations. The precision of the MLC performance monitoring QC test and the MLC itself was within ± 0.22 mm for most MLC leaves and the majority of the

  18. A Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation in Smart Grid Operation and Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriella Ferruzzi

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available A new short-term probabilistic forecasting method is proposed to predict the probability density function of the hourly active power generated by a photovoltaic system. Firstly, the probability density function of the hourly clearness index is forecasted making use of a Bayesian auto regressive time series model; the model takes into account the dependence of the solar radiation on some meteorological variables, such as the cloud cover and humidity. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation procedure is used to evaluate the predictive probability density function of the hourly active power by applying the photovoltaic system model to the random sampling of the clearness index distribution. A numerical application demonstrates the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed forecasting method.

  19. Bayesian emulation for optimization in multi-step portfolio decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Irie, Kaoru; West, Mike

    2016-01-01

    We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating" statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic, simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the decision problem. We develop this in time series portf...

  20. Bayesian estimation of dose rate effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnish, J.J.; Groer, P.G.

    2000-01-01

    A Bayesian statistical method was used to quantify the effectiveness of high dose rate 137 Cs gamma radiation at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice. The Bayesian approach considers both the temporal and dose dependence of radiation carcinogenesis and total mortality. This paper provides the first direct estimation of dose rate effectiveness using Bayesian statistics. This statistical approach provides a quantitative description of the uncertainty of the factor characterising the dose rate in terms of a probability density function. The results show that a fixed dose from 137 Cs gamma radiation delivered at a high dose rate is more effective at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice than the same dose delivered at a low dose rate. (author)

  1. Reducing lumber thickness variation using real-time statistical process control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas M. Young; Brian H. Bond; Jan Wiedenbeck

    2002-01-01

    A technology feasibility study for reducing lumber thickness variation was conducted from April 2001 until March 2002 at two sawmills located in the southern U.S. A real-time statistical process control (SPC) system was developed that featured Wonderware human machine interface technology (HMI) with distributed real-time control charts for all sawing centers and...

  2. Disciplined Decision Making in an Interdisciplinary Environment: Some Implications for Clinical Applications of Statistical Process Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hantula, Donald A.

    1995-01-01

    Clinical applications of statistical process control (SPC) in human service organizations are considered. SPC is seen as providing a standard set of criteria that serves as a common interface for data-based decision making, which may bring decision making under the control of established contingencies rather than the immediate contingencies of…

  3. An Automated Statistical Process Control Study of Inline Mixing Using Spectrophotometric Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickey, Michael D.; Stewart, Michael D.; Willson, C. Grant

    2006-01-01

    An experiment is described, which is designed for a junior-level chemical engineering "fundamentals of measurements and data analysis" course, where students are introduced to the concept of statistical process control (SPC) through a simple inline mixing experiment. The students learn how to create and analyze control charts in an effort to…

  4. Correct Bayesian and frequentist intervals are similar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1986-01-01

    This paper argues that Bayesians and frequentists will normally reach numerically similar conclusions, when dealing with vague data or sparse data. It is shown that both statistical methodologies can deal reasonably with vague data. With sparse data, in many important practical cases Bayesian interval estimates and frequentist confidence intervals are approximately equal, although with discrete data the frequentist intervals are somewhat longer. This is not to say that the two methodologies are equally easy to use: The construction of a frequentist confidence interval may require new theoretical development. Bayesians methods typically require numerical integration, perhaps over many variables. Also, Bayesian can easily fall into the trap of over-optimism about their amount of prior knowledge. But in cases where both intervals are found correctly, the two intervals are usually not very different. (orig.)

  5. Statistical process control: An approach to quality assurance in the production of vitrified nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulsipher, B.A.; Kuhn, W.L.

    1987-01-01

    Current planning for liquid high-level nuclear wastes existing in the United States includes processing in a liquid-fed ceramic melter to incorporate it into a high-quality glass, and placement in a deep geologic repository. The nuclear waste vitrification process requires assurance of a quality product with little or no final inspection. Statistical process control (SPC) is a quantitative approach to one quality assurance aspect of vitrified nuclear waste. This method for monitoring and controlling a process in the presence of uncertainties provides a statistical basis for decisions concerning product quality improvement. Statistical process control is shown to be a feasible and beneficial tool to help the waste glass producers demonstrate that the vitrification process can be controlled sufficiently to produce an acceptable product. This quantitative aspect of quality assurance could be an effective means of establishing confidence in the claims to a quality product

  6. Statistical process control: An approach to quality assurance in the production of vitrified nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulsipher, B.A.; Kuhn, W.L.

    1987-02-01

    Current planning for liquid high-level nuclear wastes existing in the US includes processing in a liquid-fed ceramic melter to incorporate it into a high-quality glass, and placement in a deep geologic repository. The nuclear waste vitrification process requires assurance of a quality product with little or no final inspection. Statistical process control (SPC) is a quantitative approach to one quality assurance aspect of vitrified nuclear waste. This method for monitoring and controlling a process in the presence of uncertainties provides a statistical basis for decisions concerning product quality improvement. Statistical process control is shown to be a feasible and beneficial tool to help the waste glass producers demonstrate that the vitrification process can be controlled sufficiently to produce an acceptable product. This quantitative aspect of quality assurance could be an effective means of establishing confidence in the claims to a quality product. 2 refs., 4 figs

  7. Management of Uncertainty by Statistical Process Control and a Genetic Tuned Fuzzy System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephan Birle

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In food industry, bioprocesses like fermentation often are a crucial part of the manufacturing process and decisive for the final product quality. In general, they are characterized by highly nonlinear dynamics and uncertainties that make it difficult to control these processes by the use of traditional control techniques. In this context, fuzzy logic controllers offer quite a straightforward way to control processes that are affected by nonlinear behavior and uncertain process knowledge. However, in order to maintain process safety and product quality it is necessary to specify the controller performance and to tune the controller parameters. In this work, an approach is presented to establish an intelligent control system for oxidoreductive yeast propagation as a representative process biased by the aforementioned uncertainties. The presented approach is based on statistical process control and fuzzy logic feedback control. As the cognitive uncertainty among different experts about the limits that define the control performance as still acceptable may differ a lot, a data-driven design method is performed. Based upon a historic data pool statistical process corridors are derived for the controller inputs control error and change in control error. This approach follows the hypothesis that if the control performance criteria stay within predefined statistical boundaries, the final process state meets the required quality definition. In order to keep the process on its optimal growth trajectory (model based reference trajectory a fuzzy logic controller is used that alternates the process temperature. Additionally, in order to stay within the process corridors, a genetic algorithm was applied to tune the input and output fuzzy sets of a preliminarily parameterized fuzzy controller. The presented experimental results show that the genetic tuned fuzzy controller is able to keep the process within its allowed limits. The average absolute error to the

  8. Human-centered sensor-based Bayesian control: Increased energy efficiency and user satisfaction in commercial lighting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granderson, Jessica Ann

    2007-12-01

    The need for sustainable, efficient energy systems is the motivation that drove this research, which targeted the design of an intelligent commercial lighting system. Lighting in commercial buildings consumes approximately 13% of all the electricity generated in the US. Advanced lighting controls1 intended for use in commercial office spaces have proven to save up to 45% in electricity consumption. However, they currently comprise only a fraction of the market share, resulting in a missed opportunity to conserve energy. The research goals driving this dissertation relate directly to barriers hindering widespread adoption---increase user satisfaction, and provide increased energy savings through more sophisticated control. To satisfy these goals an influence diagram was developed to perform daylighting actuation. This algorithm was designed to balance the potentially conflicting lighting preferences of building occupants, with the efficiency desires of building facilities management. A supervisory control policy was designed to implement load shedding under a demand response tariff. Such tariffs offer incentives for customers to reduce their consumption during periods of peak demand, trough price reductions. In developing the value function occupant user testing was conducted to determine that computer and paper tasks require different illuminance levels, and that user preferences are sufficiently consistent to attain statistical significance. Approximately ten facilities managers were also interviewed and surveyed to isolate their lighting preferences with respect to measures of lighting quality and energy savings. Results from both simulation and physical implementation and user testing indicate that the intelligent controller can increase occupant satisfaction, efficiency, cost savings, and management satisfaction, with respect to existing commercial daylighting systems. Several important contributions were realized by satisfying the research goals. A general

  9. Matched case-control studies: a review of reported statistical methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niven DJ

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Daniel J Niven1, Luc R Berthiaume2, Gordon H Fick1, Kevin B Laupland11Department of Critical Care Medicine, Peter Lougheed Centre, Calgary, 2Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, CanadaBackground: Case-control studies are a common and efficient means of studying rare diseases or illnesses with long latency periods. Matching of cases and controls is frequently employed to control the effects of known potential confounding variables. The analysis of matched data requires specific statistical methods.Methods: The objective of this study was to determine the proportion of published, peer reviewed matched case-control studies that used statistical methods appropriate for matched data. Using a comprehensive set of search criteria we identified 37 matched case-control studies for detailed analysis.Results: Among these 37 articles, only 16 studies were analyzed with proper statistical techniques (43%. Studies that were properly analyzed were more likely to have included case patients with cancer and cardiovascular disease compared to those that did not use proper statistics (10/16 or 63%, versus 5/21 or 24%, P = 0.02. They were also more likely to have matched multiple controls for each case (14/16 or 88%, versus 13/21 or 62%, P = 0.08. In addition, studies with properly analyzed data were more likely to have been published in a journal with an impact factor listed in the top 100 according to the Journal Citation Reports index (12/16 or 69%, versus 1/21 or 5%, P ≤ 0.0001.Conclusion: The findings of this study raise concern that the majority of matched case-control studies report results that are derived from improper statistical analyses. This may lead to errors in estimating the relationship between a disease and exposure, as well as the incorrect adaptation of emerging medical literature.Keywords: case-control, matched, dependent data, statistics

  10. Statistical process control methods allow the analysis and improvement of anesthesia care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fasting, Sigurd; Gisvold, Sven E

    2003-10-01

    Quality aspects of the anesthetic process are reflected in the rate of intraoperative adverse events. The purpose of this report is to illustrate how the quality of the anesthesia process can be analyzed using statistical process control methods, and exemplify how this analysis can be used for quality improvement. We prospectively recorded anesthesia-related data from all anesthetics for five years. The data included intraoperative adverse events, which were graded into four levels, according to severity. We selected four adverse events, representing important quality and safety aspects, for statistical process control analysis. These were: inadequate regional anesthesia, difficult emergence from general anesthesia, intubation difficulties and drug errors. We analyzed the underlying process using 'p-charts' for statistical process control. In 65,170 anesthetics we recorded adverse events in 18.3%; mostly of lesser severity. Control charts were used to define statistically the predictable normal variation in problem rate, and then used as a basis for analysis of the selected problems with the following results: Inadequate plexus anesthesia: stable process, but unacceptably high failure rate; Difficult emergence: unstable process, because of quality improvement efforts; Intubation difficulties: stable process, rate acceptable; Medication errors: methodology not suited because of low rate of errors. By applying statistical process control methods to the analysis of adverse events, we have exemplified how this allows us to determine if a process is stable, whether an intervention is required, and if quality improvement efforts have the desired effect.

  11. Use of statistic control of the process as part of a quality assurance plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acosta, S.; Lewis, C.

    2013-01-01

    One of the technical requirements of the standard IRAM ISO 17025 for the accreditation of testing laboratories, is the assurance of the quality of the results through the control and monitoring of the factors influencing the reliability of them. The grade the factors contribute to the total measurement uncertainty, determines which of them should be considered when developing a quality assurance plan. The laboratory of environmental measurements of strontium-90 in the accreditation process, performs most of its determinations in samples with values close to the detection limit. For this reason the correct characterization of the white, is a critical parameter and is verified through a letter for statistical process control. The scope of the present work is concerned the control of whites and so it was collected a statistically significant amount of data, for a period of time that is covered of different conditions. This allowed consider significant variables in the process, such as temperature and humidity, and build a graph of white control, which forms the basis of a statistical process control. The data obtained were lower and upper limits for the preparation of the charter white control. In this way the process of characterization of white was considered to operate under statistical control and concludes that it can be used as part of a plan of insurance of the quality

  12. Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello

    Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.

  13. Assessment of the GPC Control Quality Using Non–Gaussian Statistical Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domański Paweł D.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an alternative approach to the task of control performance assessment. Various statistical measures based on Gaussian and non-Gaussian distribution functions are evaluated. The analysis starts with the review of control error histograms followed by their statistical analysis using probability distribution functions. Simulation results obtained for a control system with the generalized predictive controller algorithm are considered. The proposed approach using Cauchy and Lévy α-stable distributions shows robustness against disturbances and enables effective control loop quality evaluation. Tests of the predictive algorithm prove its ability to detect the impact of the main controller parameters, such as the model gain, the dynamics or the prediction horizon.

  14. Application of machine learning and expert systems to Statistical Process Control (SPC) chart interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shewhart, Mark

    1991-01-01

    Statistical Process Control (SPC) charts are one of several tools used in quality control. Other tools include flow charts, histograms, cause and effect diagrams, check sheets, Pareto diagrams, graphs, and scatter diagrams. A control chart is simply a graph which indicates process variation over time. The purpose of drawing a control chart is to detect any changes in the process signalled by abnormal points or patterns on the graph. The Artificial Intelligence Support Center (AISC) of the Acquisition Logistics Division has developed a hybrid machine learning expert system prototype which automates the process of constructing and interpreting control charts.

  15. Using Alien Coins to Test Whether Simple Inference Is Bayesian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassey, Peter; Hawkins, Guy E.; Donkin, Chris; Brown, Scott D.

    2016-01-01

    Reasoning and inference are well-studied aspects of basic cognition that have been explained as statistically optimal Bayesian inference. Using a simplified experimental design, we conducted quantitative comparisons between Bayesian inference and human inference at the level of individuals. In 3 experiments, with more than 13,000 participants, we…

  16. Statistical transformation and the interpretation of inpatient glucose control data from the intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saulnier, George E; Castro, Janna C; Cook, Curtiss B

    2014-05-01

    Glucose control can be problematic in critically ill patients. We evaluated the impact of statistical transformation on interpretation of intensive care unit inpatient glucose control data. Point-of-care blood glucose (POC-BG) data derived from patients in the intensive care unit for 2011 was obtained. Box-Cox transformation of POC-BG measurements was performed, and distribution of data was determined before and after transformation. Different data subsets were used to establish statistical upper and lower control limits. Exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts constructed from April, October, and November data determined whether out-of-control events could be identified differently in transformed versus nontransformed data. A total of 8679 POC-BG values were analyzed. POC-BG distributions in nontransformed data were skewed but approached normality after transformation. EWMA control charts revealed differences in projected detection of out-of-control events. In April, an out-of-control process resulting in the lower control limit being exceeded was identified at sample 116 in nontransformed data but not in transformed data. October transformed data detected an out-of-control process exceeding the upper control limit at sample 27 that was not detected in nontransformed data. Nontransformed November results remained in control, but transformation identified an out-of-control event less than 10 samples into the observation period. Using statistical methods to assess population-based glucose control in the intensive care unit could alter conclusions about the effectiveness of care processes for managing hyperglycemia. Further study is required to determine whether transformed versus nontransformed data change clinical decisions about the interpretation of care or intervention results. © 2014 Diabetes Technology Society.

  17. A case study: application of statistical process control tool for determining process capability and sigma level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chopra, Vikram; Bairagi, Mukesh; Trivedi, P; Nagar, Mona

    2012-01-01

    Statistical process control is the application of statistical methods to the measurement and analysis of variation process. Various regulatory authorities such as Validation Guidance for Industry (2011), International Conference on Harmonisation ICH Q10 (2009), the Health Canada guidelines (2009), Health Science Authority, Singapore: Guidance for Product Quality Review (2008), and International Organization for Standardization ISO-9000:2005 provide regulatory support for the application of statistical process control for better process control and understanding. In this study risk assessments, normal probability distributions, control charts, and capability charts are employed for selection of critical quality attributes, determination of normal probability distribution, statistical stability, and capability of production processes, respectively. The objective of this study is to determine tablet production process quality in the form of sigma process capability. By interpreting data and graph trends, forecasting of critical quality attributes, sigma process capability, and stability of process were studied. The overall study contributes to an assessment of process at the sigma level with respect to out-of-specification attributes produced. Finally, the study will point to an area where the application of quality improvement and quality risk assessment principles for achievement of six sigma-capable processes is possible. Statistical process control is the most advantageous tool for determination of the quality of any production process. This tool is new for the pharmaceutical tablet production process. In the case of pharmaceutical tablet production processes, the quality control parameters act as quality assessment parameters. Application of risk assessment provides selection of critical quality attributes among quality control parameters. Sequential application of normality distributions, control charts, and capability analyses provides a valid statistical

  18. Doing bayesian data analysis a tutorial with R and BUGS

    CERN Document Server

    Kruschke, John K

    2011-01-01

    There is an explosion of interest in Bayesian statistics, primarily because recently created computational methods have finally made Bayesian analysis obtainable to a wide audience. Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, A Tutorial Introduction with R and BUGS provides an accessible approach to Bayesian data analysis, as material is explained clearly with concrete examples. The book begins with the basics, including essential concepts of probability and random sampling, and gradually progresses to advanced hierarchical modeling methods for realistic data. The text delivers comprehensive coverage of all

  19. Count Data On Cancer Death In Ohio A Bayesian Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walaa Hamdi

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers statistical modeling of count data on cancer death in Ohio State. We obtained count data on male and female from a website of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and used Bayesian analyses to find suitable models which help us to do inferences and predictions for next year. To assist us in selecting appropriate models we use criteria such as the DIC. In this paper we analyze the data to spatial longitudinal so we can capture possible correlations. Using our analyses we make predictions of the numbers of people who will die with cancer in a future year in Ohio State.

  20. An introduction to using Bayesian linear regression with clinical data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, Scott A; Larson, Michael J

    2017-11-01

    Statistical training psychology focuses on frequentist methods. Bayesian methods are an alternative to standard frequentist methods. This article provides researchers with an introduction to fundamental ideas in Bayesian modeling. We use data from an electroencephalogram (EEG) and anxiety study to illustrate Bayesian models. Specifically, the models examine the relationship between error-related negativity (ERN), a particular event-related potential, and trait anxiety. Methodological topics covered include: how to set up a regression model in a Bayesian framework, specifying priors, examining convergence of the model, visualizing and interpreting posterior distributions, interval estimates, expected and predicted values, and model comparison tools. We also discuss situations where Bayesian methods can outperform frequentist methods as well has how to specify more complicated regression models. Finally, we conclude with recommendations about reporting guidelines for those using Bayesian methods in their own research. We provide data and R code for replicating our analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Cancer Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... What Is Cancer? Cancer Statistics Cancer Disparities Cancer Statistics Cancer has a major impact on society in ... success of efforts to control and manage cancer. Statistics at a Glance: The Burden of Cancer in ...

  2. Bayesian Modeling of a Human MMORPG Player

    Science.gov (United States)

    Synnaeve, Gabriel; Bessière, Pierre

    2011-03-01

    This paper describes an application of Bayesian programming to the control of an autonomous avatar in a multiplayer role-playing game (the example is based on World of Warcraft). We model a particular task, which consists of choosing what to do and to select which target in a situation where allies and foes are present. We explain the model in Bayesian programming and show how we could learn the conditional probabilities from data gathered during human-played sessions.

  3. Methods and applications of statistics in engineering, quality control, and the physical sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Balakrishnan, N

    2011-01-01

    Inspired by the Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences, Second Edition (ESS2e), this volume presents a concise, well-rounded focus on the statistical concepts and applications that are essential for understanding gathered data in the fields of engineering, quality control, and the physical sciences. The book successfully upholds the goals of ESS2e by combining both previously-published and newly developed contributions written by over 100 leading academics, researchers, and practitioner in a comprehensive, approachable format. The result is a succinct reference that unveils modern, cutting-edge approaches to acquiring and analyzing data across diverse subject areas within these three disciplines, including operations research, chemistry, physics, the earth sciences, electrical engineering, and quality assurance. In addition, techniques related to survey methodology, computational statistics, and operations research are discussed, where applicable. Topics of coverage include: optimal and stochastic control, arti...

  4. Statistical methods for quality assurance basics, measurement, control, capability, and improvement

    CERN Document Server

    Vardeman, Stephen B

    2016-01-01

    This undergraduate statistical quality assurance textbook clearly shows with real projects, cases and data sets how statistical quality control tools are used in practice. Among the topics covered is a practical evaluation of measurement effectiveness for both continuous and discrete data. Gauge Reproducibility and Repeatability methodology (including confidence intervals for Repeatability, Reproducibility and the Gauge Capability Ratio) is thoroughly developed. Process capability indices and corresponding confidence intervals are also explained. In addition to process monitoring techniques, experimental design and analysis for process improvement are carefully presented. Factorial and Fractional Factorial arrangements of treatments and Response Surface methods are covered. Integrated throughout the book are rich sets of examples and problems that help readers gain a better understanding of where and how to apply statistical quality control tools. These large and realistic problem sets in combination with the...

  5. COMPARISON OF STATISTICALLY CONTROLLED MACHINING SOLUTIONS OF TITANIUM ALLOYS USING USM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Singh

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the present investigation is to compare the statistically controlled machining solution of titanium alloys using ultrasonic machining (USM. In this study, the previously developed Taguchi model for USM of titanium and its alloys has been investigated and compared. Relationships between the material removal rate, tool wear rate, surface roughness and other controllable machining parameters (power rating, tool type, slurry concentration, slurry type, slurry temperature and slurry size have been deduced. The results of this study suggest that at the best settings of controllable machining parameters for titanium alloys (based upon the Taguchi design, the machining solution with USM is statistically controlled, which is not observed for other settings of input parameters on USM.

  6. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

  7. Mainstreaming Remedial Mathematics Students in Introductory Statistics: Results Using a Randomized Controlled Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logue, Alexandra W.; Watanabe-Rose, Mari

    2014-01-01

    This study used a randomized controlled trial to determine whether students, assessed by their community colleges as needing an elementary algebra (remedial) mathematics course, could instead succeed at least as well in a college-level, credit-bearing introductory statistics course with extra support (a weekly workshop). Researchers randomly…

  8. Fieldcrest Cannon, Inc. Advanced Technical Preparation. Statistical Process Control (SPC). PRE-SPC I. Instructor Book.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Averitt, Sallie D.

    This instructor guide, which was developed for use in a manufacturing firm's advanced technical preparation program, contains the materials required to present a learning module that is designed to prepare trainees for the program's statistical process control module by improving their basic math skills and instructing them in basic calculator…

  9. Impact of Autocorrelation on Principal Components and Their Use in Statistical Process Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vanhatalo, Erik; Kulahci, Murat

    2015-01-01

    A basic assumption when using principal component analysis (PCA) for inferential purposes, such as in statistical process control (SPC), is that the data are independent in time. In many industrial processes, frequent sampling and process dynamics make this assumption unrealistic rendering sampled...

  10. Project T.E.A.M. (Technical Education Advancement Modules). Introduction to Statistical Process Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billings, Paul H.

    This instructional guide, one of a series developed by the Technical Education Advancement Modules (TEAM) project, is a 6-hour introductory module on statistical process control (SPC), designed to develop competencies in the following skill areas: (1) identification of the three classes of SPC use; (2) understanding a process and how it works; (3)…

  11. Analyzing a Mature Software Inspection Process Using Statistical Process Control (SPC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, Julie; Carleton, Anita; Stamper, Darrell E. (Technical Monitor)

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents a cooperative effort where the Software Engineering Institute and the Space Shuttle Onboard Software Project could experiment applying Statistical Process Control (SPC) analysis to inspection activities. The topics include: 1) SPC Collaboration Overview; 2) SPC Collaboration Approach and Results; and 3) Lessons Learned.

  12. Using Statistical Process Control Charts to Study Stuttering Frequency Variability during a Single Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, Hamid; O'Brian, Sue; Onslow, Mark; Jones, Mark; Menzies, Ross; Packman, Ann

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Stuttering varies between and within speaking situations. In this study, the authors used statistical process control charts with 10 case studies to investigate variability of stuttering frequency. Method: Participants were 10 adults who stutter. The authors counted the percentage of syllables stuttered (%SS) for segments of their speech…

  13. Project T.E.A.M. (Technical Education Advancement Modules). Advanced Statistical Process Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunlap, Dale

    This instructional guide, one of a series developed by the Technical Education Advancement Modules (TEAM) project, is a 20-hour advanced statistical process control (SPC) and quality improvement course designed to develop the following competencies: (1) understanding quality systems; (2) knowing the process; (3) solving quality problems; and (4)…

  14. Monitoring a PVC batch process with multivariate statistical process control charts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tates, A. A.; Louwerse, D. J.; Smilde, A. K.; Koot, G. L. M.; Berndt, H.

    1999-01-01

    Multivariate statistical process control charts (MSPC charts) are developed for the industrial batch production process of poly(vinyl chloride) (PVC). With these MSPC charts different types of abnormal batch behavior were detected on-line. With batch contribution plots, the probable causes of these

  15. Sampling methods to the statistical control of the production of blood components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Paulo; Seghatchian, Jerard; Caldeira, Beatriz; Santos, Paula; Castro, Rosa; Fernandes, Teresa; Xavier, Sandra; de Sousa, Gracinda; de Almeida E Sousa, João Paulo

    2017-12-01

    The control of blood components specifications is a requirement generalized in Europe by the European Commission Directives and in the US by the AABB standards. The use of a statistical process control methodology is recommended in the related literature, including the EDQM guideline. The control reliability is dependent of the sampling. However, a correct sampling methodology seems not to be systematically applied. Commonly, the sampling is intended to comply uniquely with the 1% specification to the produced blood components. Nevertheless, on a purely statistical viewpoint, this model could be argued not to be related to a consistent sampling technique. This could be a severe limitation to detect abnormal patterns and to assure that the production has a non-significant probability of producing nonconforming components. This article discusses what is happening in blood establishments. Three statistical methodologies are proposed: simple random sampling, sampling based on the proportion of a finite population, and sampling based on the inspection level. The empirical results demonstrate that these models are practicable in blood establishments contributing to the robustness of sampling and related statistical process control decisions for the purpose they are suggested for. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Evaluation of statistical protocols for quality control of ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorge F. Perez-Quezada; Nicanor Z. Saliendra; William E. Emmerich; Emilio A. Laca

    2007-01-01

    The process of quality control of micrometeorological and carbon dioxide (CO2) flux data can be subjective and may lack repeatability, which would undermine the results of many studies. Multivariate statistical methods and time series analysis were used together and independently to detect and replace outliers in CO2 flux...

  17. Advances in statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard Stauffer; Nadav Nur

    2005-01-01

    The papers included in the Advances in Statistics section of the Partners in Flight (PIF) 2002 Proceedings represent a small sample of statistical topics of current importance to Partners In Flight research scientists: hierarchical modeling, estimation of detection probabilities, and Bayesian applications. Sauer et al. (this volume) examines a hierarchical model...

  18. Implementation of statistical process control for proteomic experiments via LC MS/MS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bereman, Michael S; Johnson, Richard; Bollinger, James; Boss, Yuval; Shulman, Nick; MacLean, Brendan; Hoofnagle, Andrew N; MacCoss, Michael J

    2014-04-01

    Statistical process control (SPC) is a robust set of tools that aids in the visualization, detection, and identification of assignable causes of variation in any process that creates products, services, or information. A tool has been developed termed Statistical Process Control in Proteomics (SProCoP) which implements aspects of SPC (e.g., control charts and Pareto analysis) into the Skyline proteomics software. It monitors five quality control metrics in a shotgun or targeted proteomic workflow. None of these metrics require peptide identification. The source code, written in the R statistical language, runs directly from the Skyline interface, which supports the use of raw data files from several of the mass spectrometry vendors. It provides real time evaluation of the chromatographic performance (e.g., retention time reproducibility, peak asymmetry, and resolution), and mass spectrometric performance (targeted peptide ion intensity and mass measurement accuracy for high resolving power instruments) via control charts. Thresholds are experiment- and instrument-specific and are determined empirically from user-defined quality control standards that enable the separation of random noise and systematic error. Finally, Pareto analysis provides a summary of performance metrics and guides the user to metrics with high variance. The utility of these charts to evaluate proteomic experiments is illustrated in two case studies.

  19. Bayesian Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  20. A systematic review of Bayesian articles in psychology : The last 25 years

    OpenAIRE

    van de Schoot, Rens; Winter, Sonja; Ryan, Oisín; Zondervan - Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; Depaoli, Sarah

    2017-01-01

    Although the statistical tools most often used by researchers in the field of psychology over the last 25 years are based on frequentist statistics, it is often claimed that the alternative Bayesian approach to statistics is gaining in popularity. In the current article, we investigated this claim by performing the very first systematic review of Bayesian psychological articles published between 1990 and 2015 (n = 1,579). We aim to provide a thorough presentation of the role Bayesian statisti...

  1. Statistical process control: separating signal from noise in emergency department operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimentel, Laura; Barrueto, Fermin

    2015-05-01

    Statistical process control (SPC) is a visually appealing and statistically rigorous methodology very suitable to the analysis of emergency department (ED) operations. We demonstrate that the control chart is the primary tool of SPC; it is constructed by plotting data measuring the key quality indicators of operational processes in rationally ordered subgroups such as units of time. Control limits are calculated using formulas reflecting the variation in the data points from one another and from the mean. SPC allows managers to determine whether operational processes are controlled and predictable. We review why the moving range chart is most appropriate for use in the complex ED milieu, how to apply SPC to ED operations, and how to determine when performance improvement is needed. SPC is an excellent tool for operational analysis and quality improvement for these reasons: 1) control charts make large data sets intuitively coherent by integrating statistical and visual descriptions; 2) SPC provides analysis of process stability and capability rather than simple comparison with a benchmark; 3) SPC allows distinction between special cause variation (signal), indicating an unstable process requiring action, and common cause variation (noise), reflecting a stable process; and 4) SPC keeps the focus of quality improvement on process rather than individual performance. Because data have no meaning apart from their context, and every process generates information that can be used to improve it, we contend that SPC should be seriously considered for driving quality improvement in emergency medicine. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Application of Multivariable Statistical Techniques in Plant-wide WWTP Control Strategies Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores Alsina, Xavier; Comas, J.; Rodríguez-Roda, I.

    2007-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to present the application of selected multivariable statistical techniques in plant-wide wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) control strategies analysis. In this study, cluster analysis (CA), principal component analysis/factor analysis (PCA/FA) and discriminant...... analysis (DA) are applied to the evaluation matrix data set obtained by simulation of several control strategies applied to the plant-wide IWA Benchmark Simulation Model No 2 (BSM2). These techniques allow i) to determine natural groups or clusters of control strategies with a similar behaviour, ii......) to find and interpret hidden, complex and casual relation features in the data set and iii) to identify important discriminant variables within the groups found by the cluster analysis. This study illustrates the usefulness of multivariable statistical techniques for both analysis and interpretation...

  3. A Bayesian Approach to Interactive Retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tague, Jean M.

    1973-01-01

    A probabilistic model for interactive retrieval is presented. Bayesian statistical decision theory principles are applied: use of prior and sample information about the relationship of document descriptions to query relevance; maximization of expected value of a utility function, to the problem of optimally restructuring search strategies in an…

  4. Assessing thermal comfort and energy efficiency in buildings by statistical quality control for autocorrelated data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbeito, Inés; Zaragoza, Sonia; Tarrío-Saavedra, Javier; Naya, Salvador

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Intelligent web platform development for energy efficiency management in buildings. • Controlling and supervising thermal comfort and energy consumption in buildings. • Statistical quality control procedure to deal with autocorrelated data. • Open source alternative using R software. - Abstract: In this paper, a case study of performing a reliable statistical procedure to evaluate the quality of HVAC systems in buildings using data retrieved from an ad hoc big data web energy platform is presented. The proposed methodology based on statistical quality control (SQC) is used to analyze the real state of thermal comfort and energy efficiency of the offices of the company FRIDAMA (Spain) in a reliable way. Non-conformities or alarms, and the actual assignable causes of these out of control states are detected. The capability to meet specification requirements is also analyzed. Tools and packages implemented in the open-source R software are employed to apply the different procedures. First, this study proposes to fit ARIMA time series models to CTQ variables. Then, the application of Shewhart and EWMA control charts to the time series residuals is proposed to control and monitor thermal comfort and energy consumption in buildings. Once thermal comfort and consumption variability are estimated, the implementation of capability indexes for autocorrelated variables is proposed to calculate the degree to which standards specifications are met. According with case study results, the proposed methodology has detected real anomalies in HVAC installation, helping to detect assignable causes and to make appropriate decisions. One of the goals is to perform and describe step by step this statistical procedure in order to be replicated by practitioners in a better way.

  5. Adaptive sampling rate control for networked systems based on statistical characteristics of packet disordering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jin-Na; Er, Meng-Joo; Tan, Yen-Kheng; Yu, Hai-Bin; Zeng, Peng

    2015-09-01

    This paper investigates an adaptive sampling rate control scheme for networked control systems (NCSs) subject to packet disordering. The main objectives of the proposed scheme are (a) to avoid heavy packet disordering existing in communication networks and (b) to stabilize NCSs with packet disordering, transmission delay and packet loss. First, a novel sampling rate control algorithm based on statistical characteristics of disordering entropy is proposed; secondly, an augmented closed-loop NCS that consists of a plant, a sampler and a state-feedback controller is transformed into an uncertain and stochastic system, which facilitates the controller design. Then, a sufficient condition for stochastic stability in terms of Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs) is given. Moreover, an adaptive tracking controller is designed such that the sampling period tracks a desired sampling period, which represents a significant contribution. Finally, experimental results are given to illustrate the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed scheme. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Statistical inference an integrated Bayesianlikelihood approach

    CERN Document Server

    Aitkin, Murray

    2010-01-01

    Filling a gap in current Bayesian theory, Statistical Inference: An Integrated Bayesian/Likelihood Approach presents a unified Bayesian treatment of parameter inference and model comparisons that can be used with simple diffuse prior specifications. This novel approach provides new solutions to difficult model comparison problems and offers direct Bayesian counterparts of frequentist t-tests and other standard statistical methods for hypothesis testing.After an overview of the competing theories of statistical inference, the book introduces the Bayes/likelihood approach used throughout. It pre

  7. The Influence of Recognition and Social Support on European Health Professionals' Occupational Stress: A Demands-Control-Social Support-Recognition Bayesian Network Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Herrero, Susana; Lopez-Garcia, Jose R; Herrera, Sixto; Fontaneda, Ignacio; Báscones, Sonia Muñoz; Mariscal, Miguel A

    2017-01-01

    Healthcare professionals undergo high levels of occupational stress as a result of their working conditions. Thus, the aim of this study is to develop a model that focuses on healthcare professionals so as to analyze the influence that job demands, control, social support, and recognition have on the likelihood that a worker will experience stress. The data collected correspond to 2,211 healthcare workers from 35 countries, as reported in the sixth European Working Condition Survey (EWCS). The results obtained from this study allow us to infer stress under several working condition scenarios and to identify the more relevant variables in order to reduce this stress in healthcare professionals, which is of paramount importance to managing the stress of workers in this sector. The Bayesian network proposed indicates that emotional demands have a greater influence on raising the likelihood of stress due to workload than do family demands. The results show that the support of colleagues, in general, has less effect on reducing stress than social support from superiors. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis shows that, in high-demand and low-control situations, recognition clearly impacts stress, drastically reducing it.

  8. Statistical models for expert judgement and wear prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.

    1994-01-01

    This thesis studies the statistical analysis of expert judgements and prediction of wear. The point of view adopted is the one of information theory and Bayesian statistics. A general Bayesian framework for analyzing both the expert judgements and wear prediction is presented. Information theoretic interpretations are given for some averaging techniques used in the determination of consensus distributions. Further, information theoretic models are compared with a Bayesian model. The general Bayesian framework is then applied in analyzing expert judgements based on ordinal comparisons. In this context, the value of information lost in the ordinal comparison process is analyzed by applying decision theoretic concepts. As a generalization of the Bayesian framework, stochastic filtering models for wear prediction are formulated. These models utilize the information from condition monitoring measurements in updating the residual life distribution of mechanical components. Finally, the application of stochastic control models in optimizing operational strategies for inspected components are studied. Monte-Carlo simulation methods, such as the Gibbs sampler and the stochastic quasi-gradient method, are applied in the determination of posterior distributions and in the solution of stochastic optimization problems. (orig.) (57 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.)

  9. An elementary introduction to Bayesian computing using WinBUGS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryback, D G; Stout, N K; Rosenberg, M A

    2001-01-01

    Bayesian statistics provides effective techniques for analyzing data and translating the results to inform decision making. This paper provides an elementary tutorial overview of the WinBUGS software for performing Bayesian statistical analysis. Background information on the computational methods used by the software is provided. Two examples drawn from the field of medical decision making are presented to illustrate the features and functionality of the software.

  10. Machine learning a Bayesian and optimization perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Theodoridis, Sergios

    2015-01-01

    This tutorial text gives a unifying perspective on machine learning by covering both probabilistic and deterministic approaches, which rely on optimization techniques, as well as Bayesian inference, which is based on a hierarchy of probabilistic models. The book presents the major machine learning methods as they have been developed in different disciplines, such as statistics, statistical and adaptive signal processing and computer science. Focusing on the physical reasoning behind the mathematics, all the various methods and techniques are explained in depth, supported by examples and problems, giving an invaluable resource to the student and researcher for understanding and applying machine learning concepts. The book builds carefully from the basic classical methods to the most recent trends, with chapters written to be as self-contained as possible, making the text suitable for different courses: pattern recognition, statistical/adaptive signal processing, statistical/Bayesian learning, as well as shor...

  11. Theoretical evaluation of the detectability of random lesions in bayesian emission reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qi, Jinyi

    2003-01-01

    Detecting cancerous lesion is an important task in positron emission tomography (PET). Bayesian methods based on the maximum a posteriori principle (also called penalized maximum likelihood methods) have been developed to deal with the low signal to noise ratio in the emission data. Similar to the filter cut-off frequency in the filtered backprojection method, the prior parameters in Bayesian reconstruction control the resolution and noise trade-off and hence affect detectability of lesions in reconstructed images. Bayesian reconstructions are difficult to analyze because the resolution and noise properties are nonlinear and object-dependent. Most research has been based on Monte Carlo simulations, which are very time consuming. Building on the recent progress on the theoretical analysis of image properties of statistical reconstructions and the development of numerical observers, here we develop a theoretical approach for fast computation of lesion detectability in Bayesian reconstruction. The results can be used to choose the optimum hyperparameter for the maximum lesion detectability. New in this work is the use of theoretical expressions that explicitly model the statistical variation of the lesion and background without assuming that the object variation is (locally) stationary. The theoretical results are validated using Monte Carlo simulations. The comparisons show good agreement between the theoretical predications and the Monte Carlo results

  12. Whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by a causal structure intervention?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNair, Simon; Feeney, Aidan

    2015-02-01

    People often struggle when making Bayesian probabilistic estimates on the basis of competing sources of statistical evidence. Recently, Krynski and Tenenbaum (Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 136, 430-450, 2007) proposed that a causal Bayesian framework accounts for peoples' errors in Bayesian reasoning and showed that, by clarifying the causal relations among the pieces of evidence, judgments on a classic statistical reasoning problem could be significantly improved. We aimed to understand whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by the causal structure intervention. In Experiment 1, although we observed causal facilitation effects overall, the effect was confined to participants high in numeracy. We did not find an overall facilitation effect in Experiment 2 but did replicate the earlier interaction between numerical ability and the presence or absence of causal content. This effect held when we controlled for general cognitive ability and thinking disposition. Our results suggest that clarifying causal structure facilitates Bayesian judgments, but only for participants with sufficient understanding of basic concepts in probability and statistics.

  13. A Unified Statistical Rain-Attenuation Model for Communication Link Fade Predictions and Optimal Stochastic Fade Control Design Using a Location-Dependent Rain-Statistic Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1990-01-01

    A static and dynamic rain-attenuation model is presented which describes the statistics of attenuation on an arbitrarily specified satellite link for any location for which there are long-term rainfall statistics. The model may be used in the design of the optimal stochastic control algorithms to mitigate the effects of attenuation and maintain link reliability. A rain-statistics data base is compiled, which makes it possible to apply the model to any location in the continental U.S. with a resolution of 0-5 degrees in latitude and longitude. The model predictions are compared with experimental observations, showing good agreement.

  14. Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, Nathan O.; Kelly, Dana L.

    1998-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are widely used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) because of their ability to provide useful estimates of model parameters when data are sparse and because the subjective probability framework, from which these methods are derived, is a natural framework to address the decision problems motivating PRA. This paper presents a tutorial on Bayesian parameter estimation especially relevant to PRA. It summarizes the philosophy behind these methods, approaches for constructing likelihood functions and prior distributions, some simple but realistic examples, and a variety of cautions and lessons regarding practical applications. References are also provided for more in-depth coverage of various topics

  15. Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

    2018-02-01

    This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

  16. Effect of moulding sand on statistically controlled hybrid rapid casting solution for zinc alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, Rupinder [Guru Nanak Dev Engineering College, Ludhiana (India)

    2010-08-15

    The purpose of the present investigations is to study the effect of moulding sand on decreasing shell wall thickness of mould cavities for economical and statistically controlled hybrid rapid casting solutions (combination of three dimensional printing and conventional sand casting) for zinc alloys. Starting from the identification of component/ benchmark, technological prototypes were produced at different shell wall thicknesses supported by three different types of sands (namely: dry, green and molasses). Prototypes prepared by the proposed process are for assembly check purpose and not for functional validation of the parts. The study suggested that a shell wall with a less than recommended thickness (12mm) is more suitable for dimensional accuracy. The best dimensional accuracy was obtained at 3mm shell wall thickness with green sand. The process was found to be under statistical control

  17. ANALISIS KEHILANGAN MINYAK PADA CRUDE PALM OIL (CPO DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE STATISTICAL PROCESS CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vera Devani

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available PKS “XYZ” merupakan perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang pengolahan kelapa sawit. Produk yang dihasilkan adalah Crude Palm Oil (CPO dan Palm Kernel Oil (PKO. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisa kehilangan minyak (oil losses dan faktor-faktor penyebab dengan menggunakan metoda Statistical Process Control. Statistical Process Control adalah sekumpulan strategi, teknik, dan tindakan yang diambil oleh sebuah organisasi untuk memastikan bahwa strategi tersebut menghasilkan produk yang berkualitas atau menyediakan pelayanan yang berkualitas. Sampel terjadinya oil losses pada CPO yang diteliti adalah tandan kosong (tankos, biji (nut, ampas (fibre, dan sludge akhir. Berdasarkan Peta Kendali I-MR dapat disimpulkan bahwa kondisi keempat jenis oil losses CPO berada dalam batas kendali dan konsisten. Sedangkan nilai Cpk dari total oil losses berada di luar batas kendali rata-rata proses, hal ini berarti CPO yang diproduksi telah memenuhi kebutuhan pelanggan, dengan total oil losses kurang dari batas maksimum yang ditetapkan oleh perusahaan yaitu 1,65%.

  18. A comprehensive analysis of the IMRT dose delivery process using statistical process control (SPC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerard, Karine; Grandhaye, Jean-Pierre; Marchesi, Vincent; Kafrouni, Hanna; Husson, Francois; Aletti, Pierre [Research Center for Automatic Control (CRAN), Nancy University, CNRS, 54516 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Department of Medical Physics, Alexis Vautrin Cancer Center, 54511 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy Cedex (France) and DOSIsoft SA, 94230 Cachan (France); Research Laboratory for Innovative Processes (ERPI), Nancy University, EA 3767, 5400 Nancy Cedex (France); Department of Medical Physics, Alexis Vautrin Cancer Center, 54511 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy Cedex (France); DOSIsoft SA, 94230 Cachan (France); Research Center for Automatic Control (CRAN), Nancy University, CNRS, 54516 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy, France and Department of Medical Physics, Alexis Vautrin Cancer Center, 54511 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy Cedex (France)

    2009-04-15

    The aim of this study is to introduce tools to improve the security of each IMRT patient treatment by determining action levels for the dose delivery process. To achieve this, the patient-specific quality control results performed with an ionization chamber--and which characterize the dose delivery process--have been retrospectively analyzed using a method borrowed from industry: Statistical process control (SPC). The latter consisted in fulfilling four principal well-structured steps. The authors first quantified the short term variability of ionization chamber measurements regarding the clinical tolerances used in the cancer center ({+-}4% of deviation between the calculated and measured doses) by calculating a control process capability (C{sub pc}) index. The C{sub pc} index was found superior to 4, which implies that the observed variability of the dose delivery process is not biased by the short term variability of the measurement. Then, the authors demonstrated using a normality test that the quality control results could be approximated by a normal distribution with two parameters (mean and standard deviation). Finally, the authors used two complementary tools--control charts and performance indices--to thoroughly analyze the IMRT dose delivery process. Control charts aim at monitoring the process over time using statistical control limits to distinguish random (natural) variations from significant changes in the process, whereas performance indices aim at quantifying the ability of the process to produce data that are within the clinical tolerances, at a precise moment. The authors retrospectively showed that the analysis of three selected control charts (individual value, moving-range, and EWMA control charts) allowed efficient drift detection of the dose delivery process for prostate and head-and-neck treatments before the quality controls were outside the clinical tolerances. Therefore, when analyzed in real time, during quality controls, they should

  19. A comprehensive analysis of the IMRT dose delivery process using statistical process control (SPC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gérard, Karine; Grandhaye, Jean-Pierre; Marchesi, Vincent; Kafrouni, Hanna; Husson, François; Aletti, Pierre

    2009-04-01

    The aim of this study is to introduce tools to improve the security of each IMRT patient treatment by determining action levels for the dose delivery process. To achieve this, the patient-specific quality control results performed with an ionization chamber--and which characterize the dose delivery process--have been retrospectively analyzed using a method borrowed from industry: Statistical process control (SPC). The latter consisted in fulfilling four principal well-structured steps. The authors first quantified the short-term variability of ionization chamber measurements regarding the clinical tolerances used in the cancer center (+/- 4% of deviation between the calculated and measured doses) by calculating a control process capability (C(pc)) index. The C(pc) index was found superior to 4, which implies that the observed variability of the dose delivery process is not biased by the short-term variability of the measurement. Then, the authors demonstrated using a normality test that the quality control results could be approximated by a normal distribution with two parameters (mean and standard deviation). Finally, the authors used two complementary tools--control charts and performance indices--to thoroughly analyze the IMRT dose delivery process. Control charts aim at monitoring the process over time using statistical control limits to distinguish random (natural) variations from significant changes in the process, whereas performance indices aim at quantifying the ability of the process to produce data that are within the clinical tolerances, at a precise moment. The authors retrospectively showed that the analysis of three selected control charts (individual value, moving-range, and EWMA control charts) allowed efficient drift detection of the dose delivery process for prostate and head-and-neck treatments before the quality controls were outside the clinical tolerances. Therefore, when analyzed in real time, during quality controls, they should improve the

  20. Pengendalian Kualitas Produk Di Industri Garment Dengan Menggunakan Statistical Procces Control (SPC)

    OpenAIRE

    Rizal Rachman

    2017-01-01

    Abstrak Perusahaan memandang bahwa kualitas sebagai faktor kunci yang membawa keberhasilan dan standar mutu yang telah ditetapkan oleh buyer. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui tingkat kerusakan produk dalam batas pengendalian kualitas pada proses produksi pakaian jadi pada PT. Asia Penta Garment. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode statistical procces control. Data yang diambil dalam penelitian ini mengunakan data sekunder berupa laporan jumlah produksi dan kerusakan pakaian jad...

  1. Inverse problems in the Bayesian framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki; Kaipio, Jari P

    2014-01-01

    The history of Bayesian methods dates back to the original works of Reverend Thomas Bayes and Pierre-Simon Laplace: the former laid down some of the basic principles on inverse probability in his classic article ‘An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances’ that was read posthumously in the Royal Society in 1763. Laplace, on the other hand, in his ‘Memoirs on inverse probability’ of 1774 developed the idea of updating beliefs and wrote down the celebrated Bayes’ formula in the form we know today. Although not identified yet as a framework for investigating inverse problems, Laplace used the formalism very much in the spirit it is used today in the context of inverse problems, e.g., in his study of the distribution of comets. With the evolution of computational tools, Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular in all fields of human knowledge in which conclusions need to be drawn based on incomplete and noisy data. Needless to say, inverse problems, almost by definition, fall into this category. Systematic work for developing a Bayesian inverse problem framework can arguably be traced back to the 1980s, (the original first edition being published by Elsevier in 1987), although articles on Bayesian methodology applied to inverse problems, in particular in geophysics, had appeared much earlier. Today, as testified by the articles in this special issue, the Bayesian methodology as a framework for considering inverse problems has gained a lot of popularity, and it has integrated very successfully with many traditional inverse problems ideas and techniques, providing novel ways to interpret and implement traditional procedures in numerical analysis, computational statistics, signal analysis and data assimilation. The range of applications where the Bayesian framework has been fundamental goes from geophysics, engineering and imaging to astronomy, life sciences and economy, and continues to grow. There is no question that Bayesian

  2. Guideline implementation in clinical practice: use of statistical process control charts as visual feedback devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Hussein, Fahad A

    2009-01-01

    To use statistical control charts in a series of audits to improve the acceptance and consistant use of guidelines, and reduce the variations in prescription processing in primary health care. A series of audits were done at the main satellite of King Saud Housing Family and Community Medicine Center, National Guard Health Affairs, Riyadh, where three general practitioners and six pharmacists provide outpatient care to about 3000 residents. Audits were carried out every fortnight to calculate the proportion of prescriptions that did not conform to the given guidelines of prescribing and dispensing. Simple random samples of thirty were chosen from a sampling frame of all prescriptions given in the two previous weeks. Thirty six audits were carried out from September 2004 to February 2006. P-charts were constructed around a parametric specification of non-conformities not exceeding 25%. Of the 1081 prescriptions, the most frequent non-conformity was failure to write generic names (35.5%), followed by the failure to record patient's weight (16.4%), pharmacist's name (14.3%), duration of therapy (9.1%), and the use of inappropriate abbreviations (6.0%). Initially, 100% of prescriptions did not conform to the guidelines, but within a period of three months, this came down to 40%. A process of audits in the context of statistical process control is necessary for any improvement in the implementation of guidelines in primary care. Statistical process control charts are an effective means of visual feedback to the care providers.

  3. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255 (United States); Coc, A. [Centre de Sciences Nucléaires et de Sciences de la Matière (CSNSM), CNRS/IN2P3, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris–Saclay, Bâtiment 104, F-91405 Orsay Campus (France); Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S., E-mail: iliadis@unc.edu [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1504 (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.

  4. Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani

    We propose a Bayesian inferential procedure for the noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and incorporating effects of missing variables. In particular, we devise a fast and reliable posterior simulator that yields the predictive distribution...

  5. Bayesian psychometric scaling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fox, Gerardus J.A.; van den Berg, Stéphanie Martine; Veldkamp, Bernard P.; Irwing, P.; Booth, T.; Hughes, D.

    2015-01-01

    In educational and psychological studies, psychometric methods are involved in the measurement of constructs, and in constructing and validating measurement instruments. Assessment results are typically used to measure student proficiency levels and test characteristics. Recently, Bayesian item

  6. Quality Control of the Print with the Application of Statistical Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonenko, K. V.; Bulatova, G. S.; Antropova, L. B.; Varepo, L. G.

    2018-04-01

    The basis for standardizing the process of offset printing is the control of print quality indicators. The solution of this problem has various approaches, among which the most important are statistical methods. Practical implementation of them for managing the quality of the printing process is very relevant and is reflected in this paper. The possibility of using the method of constructing a Control Card to identify the reasons for the deviation of the optical density for a triad of inks in offset printing is shown.

  7. Bayesian Nonparametric Longitudinal Data Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintana, Fernando A; Johnson, Wesley O; Waetjen, Elaine; Gold, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    Practical Bayesian nonparametric methods have been developed across a wide variety of contexts. Here, we develop a novel statistical model that generalizes standard mixed models for longitudinal data that include flexible mean functions as well as combined compound symmetry (CS) and autoregressive (AR) covariance structures. AR structure is often specified through the use of a Gaussian process (GP) with covariance functions that allow longitudinal data to be more correlated if they are observed closer in time than if they are observed farther apart. We allow for AR structure by considering a broader class of models that incorporates a Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) over the covariance parameters of the GP. We are able to take advantage of modern Bayesian statistical methods in making full predictive inferences and about characteristics of longitudinal profiles and their differences across covariate combinations. We also take advantage of the generality of our model, which provides for estimation of a variety of covariance structures. We observe that models that fail to incorporate CS or AR structure can result in very poor estimation of a covariance or correlation matrix. In our illustration using hormone data observed on women through the menopausal transition, biology dictates the use of a generalized family of sigmoid functions as a model for time trends across subpopulation categories.

  8. Statistical Process Control: A Quality Tool for a Venous Thromboembolic Disease Registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posadas-Martinez, Maria Lourdes; Rojas, Liliana Paloma; Vazquez, Fernando Javier; De Quiros, Fernan Bernaldo; Waisman, Gabriel Dario; Giunta, Diego Hernan

    2016-01-01

    We aim to describe Statistical Control Process as a quality tool for the Institutional Registry of Venous Thromboembolic Disease (IRTD), a registry developed in a community-care tertiary hospital in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The IRTD is a prospective cohort. The process of data acquisition began with the creation of a computerized alert generated whenever physicians requested imaging or laboratory study to diagnose venous thromboembolism, which defined eligible patients. The process then followed a structured methodology for patient's inclusion, evaluation, and posterior data entry. To control this process, process performance indicators were designed to be measured monthly. These included the number of eligible patients, the number of included patients, median time to patient's evaluation, and percentage of patients lost to evaluation. Control charts were graphed for each indicator. The registry was evaluated in 93 months, where 25,757 patients were reported and 6,798 patients met inclusion criteria. The median time to evaluation was 20 hours (SD, 12) and 7.7% of the total was lost to evaluation. Each indicator presented trends over time, caused by structural changes and improvement cycles, and therefore the central limit suffered inflexions. Statistical process control through process performance indicators allowed us to control the performance of the registry over time to detect systematic problems. We postulate that this approach could be reproduced for other clinical registries.

  9. A Bayesian encourages dropout

    OpenAIRE

    Maeda, Shin-ichi

    2014-01-01

    Dropout is one of the key techniques to prevent the learning from overfitting. It is explained that dropout works as a kind of modified L2 regularization. Here, we shed light on the dropout from Bayesian standpoint. Bayesian interpretation enables us to optimize the dropout rate, which is beneficial for learning of weight parameters and prediction after learning. The experiment result also encourages the optimization of the dropout.

  10. Evaluation of statistical control charts for on-line radiation monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, L.D.; DeVol, T.A.

    2008-01-01

    Statistical control charts are presented for the evaluation of time series radiation counter data from flow cells used for monitoring of low levels of 99 TcO 4 - in environmental solutions. Control chart methods consisted of the 3-sigma (3σ) chart, the cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart, and the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart. Each method involves a control limit based on the detector background which constitutes the detection limit. Both the CUSUM and EWMA charts are suitable to detect and estimate sample concentration requiring less solution volume than when using a 3? control chart. Data presented here indicate that the overall accuracy and precision of the CUSUM method is the best. (author)

  11. STATISTIC MODEL OF DYNAMIC DELAY AND DROPOUT ON CELLULAR DATA NETWORKED CONTROL SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MUHAMMAD A. MURTI

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Delay and dropout are important parameters influence overall control performance in Networked Control System (NCS. The goal of this research is to find a model of delay and dropout of data communication link in the NCS. Experiments have been done in this research to a water level control of boiler tank as part of the NCS based on internet communication network using High Speed Packet Access (HSPA cellular technology. By this experiments have been obtained closed-loop system response as well as data delay and dropout of data packets. This research contributes on modeling of the NCS which is combination of controlled plant and data communication link. Another contribution is statistical model of delay and dropout on the NCS.

  12. Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores

  13. Methods for computational disease surveillance in infection prevention and control: Statistical process control versus Twitter's anomaly and breakout detection algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiemken, Timothy L; Furmanek, Stephen P; Mattingly, William A; Wright, Marc-Oliver; Persaud, Annuradha K; Guinn, Brian E; Carrico, Ruth M; Arnold, Forest W; Ramirez, Julio A

    2018-02-01

    Although not all health care-associated infections (HAIs) are preventable, reducing HAIs through targeted intervention is key to a successful infection prevention program. To identify areas in need of targeted intervention, robust statistical methods must be used when analyzing surveillance data. The objective of this study was to compare and contrast statistical process control (SPC) charts with Twitter's anomaly and breakout detection algorithms. SPC and anomaly/breakout detection (ABD) charts were created for vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus, Acinetobacter baumannii, catheter-associated urinary tract infection, and central line-associated bloodstream infection data. Both SPC and ABD charts detected similar data points as anomalous/out of control on most charts. The vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus ABD chart detected an extra anomalous point that appeared to be higher than the same time period in prior years. Using a small subset of the central line-associated bloodstream infection data, the ABD chart was able to detect anomalies where the SPC chart was not. SPC charts and ABD charts both performed well, although ABD charts appeared to work better in the context of seasonal variation and autocorrelation. Because they account for common statistical issues in HAI data, ABD charts may be useful for practitioners for analysis of HAI surveillance data. Copyright © 2018 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.

    2017-01-01

    Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

  15. Bayesian networks in educational assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Almond, Russell G; Steinberg, Linda S; Yan, Duanli; Williamson, David M

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian inference networks, a synthesis of statistics and expert systems, have advanced reasoning under uncertainty in medicine, business, and social sciences. This innovative volume is the first comprehensive treatment exploring how they can be applied to design and analyze innovative educational assessments. Part I develops Bayes nets’ foundations in assessment, statistics, and graph theory, and works through the real-time updating algorithm. Part II addresses parametric forms for use with assessment, model-checking techniques, and estimation with the EM algorithm and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A unique feature is the volume’s grounding in Evidence-Centered Design (ECD) framework for assessment design. This “design forward” approach enables designers to take full advantage of Bayes nets’ modularity and ability to model complex evidentiary relationships that arise from performance in interactive, technology-rich assessments such as simulations. Part III describes ECD, situates Bayes nets as ...

  16. The image recognition based on neural network and Bayesian decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chugege

    2018-04-01

    The artificial neural network began in 1940, which is an important part of artificial intelligence. At present, it has become a hot topic in the fields of neuroscience, computer science, brain science, mathematics, and psychology. Thomas Bayes firstly reported the Bayesian theory in 1763. After the development in the twentieth century, it has been widespread in all areas of statistics. In recent years, due to the solution of the problem of high-dimensional integral calculation, Bayesian Statistics has been improved theoretically, which solved many problems that cannot be solved by classical statistics and is also applied to the interdisciplinary fields. In this paper, the related concepts and principles of the artificial neural network are introduced. It also summarizes the basic content and principle of Bayesian Statistics, and combines the artificial neural network technology and Bayesian decision theory and implement them in all aspects of image recognition, such as enhanced face detection method based on neural network and Bayesian decision, as well as the image classification based on the Bayesian decision. It can be seen that the combination of artificial intelligence and statistical algorithms has always been the hot research topic.

  17. IMPROVING QUALITY OF STATISTICAL PROCESS CONTROL BY DEALING WITH NON‐NORMAL DATA IN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana ANDRÁSSYOVÁ

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Study deals with an analysis of data to the effect that it improves the quality of statistical tools in processes of assembly of automobile seats. Normal distribution of variables is one of inevitable conditions for the analysis, examination, and improvement of the manufacturing processes (f. e.: manufacturing process capability although, there are constantly more approaches to non‐normal data handling. An appropriate probability distribution of measured data is firstly tested by the goodness of fit of empirical distribution with theoretical normal distribution on the basis of hypothesis testing using programme StatGraphics Centurion XV.II. Data are collected from the assembly process of 1st row automobile seats for each characteristic of quality (Safety Regulation ‐S/R individually. Study closely processes the measured data of an airbag´s assembly and it aims to accomplish the normal distributed data and apply it the statistical process control. Results of the contribution conclude in a statement of rejection of the null hypothesis (measured variables do not follow the normal distribution therefore it is necessary to begin to work on data transformation supported by Minitab15. Even this approach does not reach a normal distributed data and so should be proposed a procedure that leads to the quality output of whole statistical control of manufacturing processes.

  18. Evaluating Statistical Process Control (SPC) techniques and computing the uncertainty of force calibrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navard, Sharon E.

    1989-01-01

    In recent years there has been a push within NASA to use statistical techniques to improve the quality of production. Two areas where statistics are used are in establishing product and process quality control of flight hardware and in evaluating the uncertainty of calibration of instruments. The Flight Systems Quality Engineering branch is responsible for developing and assuring the quality of all flight hardware; the statistical process control methods employed are reviewed and evaluated. The Measurement Standards and Calibration Laboratory performs the calibration of all instruments used on-site at JSC as well as those used by all off-site contractors. These calibrations must be performed in such a way as to be traceable to national standards maintained by the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and they must meet a four-to-one ratio of the instrument specifications to calibrating standard uncertainty. In some instances this ratio is not met, and in these cases it is desirable to compute the exact uncertainty of the calibration and determine ways of reducing it. A particular example where this problem is encountered is with a machine which does automatic calibrations of force. The process of force calibration using the United Force Machine is described in detail. The sources of error are identified and quantified when possible. Suggestions for improvement are made.

  19. Bootstrap-based confidence estimation in PCA and multivariate statistical process control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Babamoradi, Hamid

    be used to detect outliers in the data since the outliers can distort the bootstrap estimates. Bootstrap-based confidence limits were suggested as alternative to the asymptotic limits for control charts and contribution plots in MSPC (Paper II). The results showed that in case of the Q-statistic......Traditional/Asymptotic confidence estimation has limited applicability since it needs statistical theories to estimate the confidences, which are not available for all indicators/parameters. Furthermore, in case the theories are available for a specific indicator/parameter, the theories are based....... The goal was to improve process monitoring by improving the quality of MSPC charts and contribution plots. Bootstrapping algorithm to build confidence limits was illustrated in a case study format (Paper I). The main steps in the algorithm were discussed where a set of sensible choices (plus...

  20. Using statistical process control for monitoring the prevalence of hospital-acquired pressure ulcers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kottner, Jan; Halfens, Ruud

    2010-05-01

    Institutionally acquired pressure ulcers are used as outcome indicators to assess the quality of pressure ulcer prevention programs. Determining whether quality improvement projects that aim to decrease the proportions of institutionally acquired pressure ulcers lead to real changes in clinical practice depends on the measurement method and statistical analysis used. To examine whether nosocomial pressure ulcer prevalence rates in hospitals in the Netherlands changed, a secondary data analysis using different statistical approaches was conducted of annual (1998-2008) nationwide nursing-sensitive health problem prevalence studies in the Netherlands. Institutions that participated regularly in all survey years were identified. Risk-adjusted nosocomial pressure ulcers prevalence rates, grade 2 to 4 (European Pressure Ulcer Advisory Panel system) were calculated per year and hospital. Descriptive statistics, chi-square trend tests, and P charts based on statistical process control (SPC) were applied and compared. Six of the 905 healthcare institutions participated in every survey year and 11,444 patients in these six hospitals were identified as being at risk for pressure ulcers. Prevalence rates per year ranged from 0.05 to 0.22. Chi-square trend tests revealed statistically significant downward trends in four hospitals but based on SPC methods, prevalence rates of five hospitals varied by chance only. Results of chi-square trend tests and SPC methods were not comparable, making it impossible to decide which approach is more appropriate. P charts provide more valuable information than single P values and are more helpful for monitoring institutional performance. Empirical evidence about the decrease of nosocomial pressure ulcer prevalence rates in the Netherlands is contradictory and limited.

  1. A Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis of a telemedicine-based strategy for the management of sleep apnoea: a multicentre randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isetta, Valentina; Negrín, Miguel A; Monasterio, Carmen; Masa, Juan F; Feu, Nuria; Álvarez, Ainhoa; Campos-Rodriguez, Francisco; Ruiz, Concepción; Abad, Jorge; Vázquez-Polo, Francisco J; Farré, Ramon; Galdeano, Marina; Lloberes, Patricia; Embid, Cristina; de la Peña, Mónica; Puertas, Javier; Dalmases, Mireia; Salord, Neus; Corral, Jaime; Jurado, Bernabé; León, Carmen; Egea, Carlos; Muñoz, Aida; Parra, Olga; Cambrodi, Roser; Martel-Escobar, María; Arqué, Meritxell; Montserrat, Josep M

    2015-11-01

    Compliance with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy is essential in patients with obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA), but adequate control is not always possible. This is clinically important because CPAP can reverse the morbidity and mortality associated with OSA. Telemedicine, with support provided via a web platform and video conferences, could represent a cost-effective alternative to standard care management. To assess the telemedicine impact on treatment compliance, cost-effectiveness and improvement in quality of life (QoL) when compared with traditional face-to-face follow-up. A randomised controlled trial was performed to compare a telemedicine-based CPAP follow-up strategy with standard face-to-face management. Consecutive OSA patients requiring CPAP treatment, with sufficient internet skills and who agreed to participate, were enrolled. They were followed-up at 1, 3 and 6 months and answered surveys about sleep, CPAP side effects and lifestyle. We compared CPAP compliance, cost-effectiveness and QoL between the beginning and the end of the study. A Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis with non-informative priors was performed. We randomised 139 patients. At 6 months, we found similar levels of CPAP compliance, and improved daytime sleepiness, QoL, side effects and degree of satisfaction in both groups. Despite requiring more visits, the telemedicine group was more cost-effective: costs were lower and differences in effectiveness were not relevant. A telemedicine-based strategy for the follow-up of CPAP treatment in patients with OSA was as effective as standard hospital-based care in terms of CPAP compliance and symptom improvement, with comparable side effects and satisfaction rates. The telemedicine-based strategy had lower total costs due to savings on transport and less lost productivity (indirect costs). NCT01716676. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go

  2. Pengendalian Kualitas Produk Di Industri Garment Dengan Menggunakan Statistical Procces Control (SPC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rizal Rachman

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstrak Perusahaan memandang bahwa kualitas sebagai faktor kunci yang membawa keberhasilan dan standar mutu yang telah ditetapkan oleh buyer. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui tingkat kerusakan produk dalam batas pengendalian kualitas pada proses produksi pakaian jadi pada PT. Asia Penta Garment. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode statistical procces control. Data yang diambil dalam penelitian ini mengunakan data sekunder berupa laporan jumlah produksi dan kerusakan pakaian jadi di bagian finishing pada Januari 2017. Berdasarkan hasil menunjukkan kerusakan diluar batas pengendalian yaitu ada yang diluar batas kendali (out of control dengan batas pengendalian atas (UCL dan batas pengendalian bawah (LCL dan rata-rata kerusakan diluar batas kendali.Untuk meningkatkan kualitas produk khususnya pakaian yang dihasilkan perusahaan, kebijakan mutu yang telah ditetapkan harus dijalankan dengan benar, antara lain dalam pemilihan negoisasi bahan baku dengan buyer sesuai standar, perekrutan tenaga kerja yang berpengalaman, kedisiplinan kerja yang tinggi, pembinaan para karyawan, pemberian bonus pada karyawan yang sesuai target dan disiplin tinggi, perbaikan mesin secara terus menerus dan memperbaiki lingkungan kerja yang bersih, nyaman, serta aman.   Kata Kunci : Pengendalian kualitas, Kualitas produk, SPC. Abstract The Company considers that quality as a key factor that brings success and quality standards set by the buyer. The purpose of this study was to determine the level of damage to the product within the limits of quality control in the production process apparel in PT. Asia Penta Garment. This study uses a statistical procces control methode. Data taken in this study using secondary data from reports on the number of production and damage to clothing in the finishing section in January 2017. Based on the results show the damage outside the control limits is nothing beyond the control limit (out of control with the upper control limit

  3. Multivariate Statistical Process Control Charts and the Problem of Interpretation: A Short Overview and Some Applications in Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Bersimis, Sotiris; Panaretos, John; Psarakis, Stelios

    2005-01-01

    Woodall and Montgomery [35] in a discussion paper, state that multivariate process control is one of the most rapidly developing sections of statistical process control. Nowadays, in industry, there are many situations in which the simultaneous monitoring or control, of two or more related quality - process characteristics is necessary. Process monitoring problems in which several related variables are of interest are collectively known as Multivariate Statistical Process Control (MSPC).This ...

  4. Bayesian phylogeography finds its roots.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Lemey

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available As a key factor in endemic and epidemic dynamics, the geographical distribution of viruses has been frequently interpreted in the light of their genetic histories. Unfortunately, inference of historical dispersal or migration patterns of viruses has mainly been restricted to model-free heuristic approaches that provide little insight into the temporal setting of the spatial dynamics. The introduction of probabilistic models of evolution, however, offers unique opportunities to engage in this statistical endeavor. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, visualization and hypothesis testing of phylogeographic history. By implementing character mapping in a Bayesian software that samples time-scaled phylogenies, we enable the reconstruction of timed viral dispersal patterns while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. Standard Markov model inference is extended with a stochastic search variable selection procedure that identifies the parsimonious descriptions of the diffusion process. In addition, we propose priors that can incorporate geographical sampling distributions or characterize alternative hypotheses about the spatial dynamics. To visualize the spatial and temporal information, we summarize inferences using virtual globe software. We describe how Bayesian phylogeography compares with previous parsimony analysis in the investigation of the influenza A H5N1 origin and H5N1 epidemiological linkage among sampling localities. Analysis of rabies in West African dog populations reveals how virus diffusion may enable endemic maintenance through continuous epidemic cycles. From these analyses, we conclude that our phylogeographic framework will make an important asset in molecular epidemiology that can be easily generalized to infer biogeogeography from genetic data for many organisms.

  5. Statistical process control support during Defense Waste Processing Facility chemical runs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, K.G.

    1994-01-01

    The Product Composition Control System (PCCS) has been developed to ensure that the wasteforms produced by the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at the Savannah River Site (SRS) will satisfy the regulatory and processing criteria that will be imposed. The PCCS provides rigorous, statistically-defensible management of a noisy, multivariate system subject to multiple constraints. The system has been successfully tested and has been used to control the production of the first two melter feed batches during DWPF Chemical Runs. These operations will demonstrate the viability of the DWPF process. This paper provides a brief discussion of the technical foundation for the statistical process control algorithms incorporated into PCCS, and describes the results obtained and lessons learned from DWPF Cold Chemical Run operations. The DWPF will immobilize approximately 130 million liters of high-level nuclear waste currently stored at the Site in 51 carbon steel tanks. Waste handling operations separate this waste into highly radioactive sludge and precipitate streams and less radioactive water soluble salts. (In a separate facility, soluble salts are disposed of as low-level waste in a mixture of cement slag, and flyash.) In DWPF, the precipitate steam (Precipitate Hydrolysis Aqueous or PHA) is blended with the insoluble sludge and ground glass frit to produce melter feed slurry which is continuously fed to the DWPF melter. The melter produces a molten borosilicate glass which is poured into stainless steel canisters for cooling and, ultimately, shipment to and storage in a geologic repository

  6. An integrated model of statistical process control and maintenance based on the delayed monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yin, Hui; Zhang, Guojun; Zhu, Haiping; Deng, Yuhao; He, Fei

    2015-01-01

    This paper develops an integrated model of statistical process control and maintenance decision. The proposal of delayed monitoring policy postpones the sampling process till a scheduled time and contributes to ten-scenarios of the production process, where equipment failure may occur besides quality shift. The equipment failure and the control chart alert trigger the corrective maintenance and the predictive maintenance, respectively. The occurrence probability, the cycle time and the cycle cost of each scenario are obtained by integral calculation; therefore, a mathematical model is established to minimize the expected cost by using the genetic algorithm. A Monte Carlo simulation experiment is conducted and compared with the integral calculation in order to ensure the analysis of the ten-scenario model. Another ordinary integrated model without delayed monitoring is also established as comparison. The results of a numerical example indicate satisfactory economic performance of the proposed model. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the effect of model parameters. - Highlights: • We develop an integrated model of statistical process control and maintenance. • We propose delayed monitoring policy and derive an economic model with 10 scenarios. • We consider two deterioration mechanisms, quality shift and equipment failure. • The delayed monitoring policy will help reduce the expected cost

  7. Impact analysis of critical success factors on the benefits from statistical process control implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabiano Rodrigues Soriano

    Full Text Available Abstract The Statistical Process Control - SPC is a set of statistical techniques focused on process control, monitoring and analyzing variation causes in the quality characteristics and/or in the parameters used to control and process improvements. Implementing SPC in organizations is a complex task. The reasons for its failure are related to organizational or social factors such as lack of top management commitment and little understanding about its potential benefits. Other aspects concern technical factors such as lack of training on and understanding about the statistical techniques. The main aim of the present article is to understand the interrelations between conditioning factors associated with top management commitment (Support, SPC Training and Application, as well as to understand the relationships between these factors and the benefits associated with the implementation of the program. The Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM was used in the analysis since the main goal is to establish the causal relations. A cross-section survey was used as research method to collect information of samples from Brazilian auto-parts companies, which were selected according to guides from the auto-parts industry associations. A total of 170 companies were contacted by e-mail and by phone in order to be invited to participate in the survey. However, just 93 industries agreed on participating, and only 43 answered the questionnaire. The results showed that the senior management support considerably affects the way companies develop their training programs. In turn, these trainings affect the way companies apply the techniques. Thus, it will reflect on the benefits gotten from implementing the program. It was observed that the managerial and technical aspects are closely connected to each other and that they are represented by the ratio between top management and training support. The technical aspects observed through SPC

  8. Preliminary Retrospective Analysis of Daily Tomotherapy Output Constancy Checks Using Statistical Process Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezzenga, Emilio; D'Errico, Vincenzo; Sarnelli, Anna; Strigari, Lidia; Menghi, Enrico; Marcocci, Francesco; Bianchini, David; Benassi, Marcello

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to retrospectively evaluate the results from a Helical TomoTherapy Hi-Art treatment system relating to quality controls based on daily static and dynamic output checks using statistical process control methods. Individual value X-charts, exponentially weighted moving average charts, and process capability and acceptability indices were used to monitor the treatment system performance. Daily output values measured from January 2014 to January 2015 were considered. The results obtained showed that, although the process was in control, there was an out-of-control situation in the principal maintenance intervention for the treatment system. In particular, process capability indices showed a decreasing percentage of points in control which was, however, acceptable according to AAPM TG148 guidelines. Our findings underline the importance of restricting the acceptable range of daily output checks and suggest a future line of investigation for a detailed process control of daily output checks for the Helical TomoTherapy Hi-Art treatment system.

  9. Six Sigma Quality Management System and Design of Risk-based Statistical Quality Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westgard, James O; Westgard, Sten A

    2017-03-01

    Six sigma concepts provide a quality management system (QMS) with many useful tools for managing quality in medical laboratories. This Six Sigma QMS is driven by the quality required for the intended use of a test. The most useful form for this quality requirement is the allowable total error. Calculation of a sigma-metric provides the best predictor of risk for an analytical examination process, as well as a design parameter for selecting the statistical quality control (SQC) procedure necessary to detect medically important errors. Simple point estimates of sigma at medical decision concentrations are sufficient for laboratory applications. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Statistical comparisons of Savannah River anemometer data applied to quality control of instrument networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Porch, W.M.; Dickerson, M.H.

    1976-08-01

    Continuous monitoring of extensive meteorological instrument arrays is a requirement in the study of important mesoscale atmospheric phenomena. The phenomena include pollution transport prediction from continuous area sources, or one time releases of toxic materials and wind energy prospecting in areas of topographic enhancement of the wind. Quality control techniques that can be applied to these data to determine if the instruments are operating within their prescribed tolerances were investigated. Savannah River Plant data were analyzed with both independent and comparative statistical techniques. The independent techniques calculate the mean, standard deviation, moments about the mean, kurtosis, skewness, probability density distribution, cumulative probability and power spectra. The comparative techniques include covariance, cross-spectral analysis and two dimensional probability density. At present the calculating and plotting routines for these statistical techniques do not reside in a single code so it is difficult to ascribe independent memory size and computation time accurately. However, given the flexibility of a data system which includes simple and fast running statistics at the instrument end of the data network (ASF) and more sophisticated techniques at the computational end (ACF) a proper balance will be attained. These techniques are described in detail and preliminary results are presented

  11. Bayesian networks with examples in R

    CERN Document Server

    Scutari, Marco

    2014-01-01

    Introduction. The Discrete Case: Multinomial Bayesian Networks. The Continuous Case: Gaussian Bayesian Networks. More Complex Cases. Theory and Algorithms for Bayesian Networks. Real-World Applications of Bayesian Networks. Appendices. Bibliography.

  12. Assessment of the beryllium lymphocyte proliferation test using statistical process control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cher, Daniel J; Deubner, David C; Kelsh, Michael A; Chapman, Pamela S; Ray, Rose M

    2006-10-01

    Despite more than 20 years of surveillance and epidemiologic studies using the beryllium blood lymphocyte proliferation test (BeBLPT) as a measure of beryllium sensitization (BeS) and as an aid for diagnosing subclinical chronic beryllium disease (CBD), improvements in specific understanding of the inhalation toxicology of CBD have been limited. Although epidemiologic data suggest that BeS and CBD risks vary by process/work activity, it has proven difficult to reach specific conclusions regarding the dose-response relationship between workplace beryllium exposure and BeS or subclinical CBD. One possible reason for this uncertainty could be misclassification of BeS resulting from variation in BeBLPT testing performance. The reliability of the BeBLPT, a biological assay that measures beryllium sensitization, is unknown. To assess the performance of four laboratories that conducted this test, we used data from a medical surveillance program that offered testing for beryllium sensitization with the BeBLPT. The study population was workers exposed to beryllium at various facilities over a 10-year period (1992-2001). Workers with abnormal results were offered diagnostic workups for CBD. Our analyses used a standard statistical technique, statistical process control (SPC), to evaluate test reliability. The study design involved a repeated measures analysis of BeBLPT results generated from the company-wide, longitudinal testing. Analytical methods included use of (1) statistical process control charts that examined temporal patterns of variation for the stimulation index, a measure of cell reactivity to beryllium; (2) correlation analysis that compared prior perceptions of BeBLPT instability to the statistical measures of test variation; and (3) assessment of the variation in the proportion of missing test results and how time periods with more missing data influenced SPC findings. During the period of this study, all laboratories displayed variation in test results that

  13. Comparative efficacy and safety of tofacitinib, with or without methotrexate, in patients with active rheumatoid arthritis: a Bayesian network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Young Ho; Bae, Sang-Cheol; Song, Gwan Gyu

    2015-12-01

    This study aimed to assess the relative efficacy and safety of tofacitinib 5 and 10 mg twice daily, or in combination with methotrexate (MTX), in patients with active RA. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) examining the efficacy and safety of tofacitinib in patients with active RA were included in this network meta-analysis. We performed a Bayesian network meta-analysis to combine the direct and indirect evidence from the RCTs. Ten RCTs including 4867 patients met the inclusion criteria. There were 21 pairwise comparisons including 11 direct comparisons of seven interventions. The ACR20 response rate was significantly higher in the tofacitinib 10 mg + MTX group than in the placebo and MTX groups (OR 7.56, 95 % credible interval (CrI) 3.07-21.16; OR 3.67, 95 % CrI 2.60-5.71, respectively). Ranking probabilities based on the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) indicated that tofacitinib 10 mg + MTX had the highest probability of being the best treatment for achieving the ACR20 response rate (SUCRA = 0.9254), followed by tofacitinib 5 mg + MTX (SUCRA = 0.7156), adalimumab 40 mg + MTX (SUCRA = 0.6097), tofacitinib 10 mg (SUCRA = 0.5984), tofacitinib 5 mg (SUCRA = 0.4749), MTX (SUCRA = 0.1674), and placebo (SUCRA = 0.0086). In contrast, the safety based on the number of withdrawals due to adverse events did not differ significantly among the seven interventions. Tofacitinib, at dosages 5 and 10 mg twice daily, in combination with MTX, was the most efficacious intervention for active RA and was not associated with a significant risk for withdrawals due to adverse events.

  14. A quality improvement project using statistical process control methods for type 2 diabetes control in a resource-limited setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flood, David; Douglas, Kate; Goldberg, Vera; Martinez, Boris; Garcia, Pablo; Arbour, MaryCatherine; Rohloff, Peter

    2017-08-01

    Quality improvement (QI) is a key strategy for improving diabetes care in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study reports on a diabetes QI project in rural Guatemala whose primary aim was to improve glycemic control of a panel of adult diabetes patients. Formative research suggested multiple areas for programmatic improvement in ambulatory diabetes care. This project utilized the Model for Improvement and Agile Global Health, our organization's complementary healthcare implementation framework. A bundle of improvement activities were implemented at the home, clinic and institutional level. Control charts of mean hemoglobin A1C (HbA1C) and proportion of patients meeting target HbA1C showed improvement as special cause variation was identified 3 months after the intervention began. Control charts for secondary process measures offered insights into the value of different components of the intervention. Intensity of home-based diabetes education emerged as an important driver of panel glycemic control. Diabetes QI work is feasible in resource-limited settings in LMICs and can improve glycemic control. Statistical process control charts are a promising methodology for use with panels or registries of diabetes patients. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  15. TU-FG-201-05: Varian MPC as a Statistical Process Control Tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carver, A; Rowbottom, C

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Quality assurance in radiotherapy requires the measurement of various machine parameters to ensure they remain within permitted values over time. In Truebeam release 2.0 the Machine Performance Check (MPC) was released allowing beam output and machine axis movements to be assessed in a single test. We aim to evaluate the Varian Machine Performance Check (MPC) as a tool for Statistical Process Control (SPC). Methods: Varian’s MPC tool was used on three Truebeam and one EDGE linac for a period of approximately one year. MPC was commissioned against independent systems. After this period the data were reviewed to determine whether or not the MPC was useful as a process control tool. Analyses on individual tests were analysed using Shewhart control plots, using Matlab for analysis. Principal component analysis was used to determine if a multivariate model was of any benefit in analysing the data. Results: Control charts were found to be useful to detect beam output changes, worn T-nuts and jaw calibration issues. Upper and lower control limits were defined at the 95% level. Multivariate SPC was performed using Principal Component Analysis. We found little evidence of clustering beyond that which might be naively expected such as beam uniformity and beam output. Whilst this makes multivariate analysis of little use it suggests that each test is giving independent information. Conclusion: The variety of independent parameters tested in MPC makes it a sensitive tool for routine machine QA. We have determined that using control charts in our QA programme would rapidly detect changes in machine performance. The use of control charts allows large quantities of tests to be performed on all linacs without visual inspection of all results. The use of control limits alerts users when data are inconsistent with previous measurements before they become out of specification. A. Carver has received a speaker’s honorarium from Varian

  16. Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Dropmann, Damian; Boutin, Bruno; Meerhoff, Frans; Knight, Patrick; Raj, Akash; van Kesteren, Erik-Jan; van Doorn, Johnny; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Etz, Alexander; Matzke, Dora; de Jong, Tim; van den Bergh, Don; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Steingroever, Helen; Derks, Koen; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

    2018-02-01

    Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.

  17. Automation in Siemens fuel manufacturing - the basis for quality improvement by statistical process control (SPC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drecker, St.; Hoff, A.; Dietrich, M.; Guldner, R.

    1999-01-01

    Statistical Process Control (SPC) is one of the systematic tools to perform a valuable contribution to the control and planning activities for manufacturing processes and product quality. Advanced Nuclear Fuels GmbH (ANF) started a program to introduce SPC in all sections of the manufacturing process of fuel assemblies. The concept phase is based on a realization of SPC in 3 pilot projects. The existing manufacturing devices are reviewed for the utilization of SPC. Subsequent modifications were made to provide the necessary interfaces. The processes 'powder/pellet manufacturing'. 'cladding tube manufacturing' and 'laser-welding of spacers' are located at the different locations of ANF. Due to the completion of the first steps and the experience obtained by the pilot projects, the introduction program for SPC has already been extended to other manufacturing processes. (authors)

  18. A statistical model of uplink inter-cell interference with slow and fast power control mechanisms

    KAUST Repository

    Tabassum, Hina

    2013-09-01

    Uplink power control is in essence an interference mitigation technique that aims at minimizing the inter-cell interference (ICI) in cellular networks by reducing the transmit power levels of the mobile users while maintaining their target received signal quality levels at base stations. Power control mechanisms directly impact the interference dynamics and, thus, affect the overall achievable capacity and consumed power in cellular networks. Due to the stochastic nature of wireless channels and mobile users\\' locations, it is important to derive theoretical models for ICI that can capture the impact of design alternatives related to power control mechanisms. To this end, we derive and verify a novel statistical model for uplink ICI in Generalized-K composite fading environments as a function of various slow and fast power control mechanisms. The derived expressions are then utilized to quantify numerically key network performance metrics that include average resource fairness, average reduction in power consumption, and ergodic capacity. The accuracy of the derived expressions is validated via Monte-Carlo simulations. Results are generated for multiple network scenarios, and insights are extracted to assess various power control mechanisms as a function of system parameters. © 1972-2012 IEEE.

  19. Using a statistical process control chart during the quality assessment of cancer registry data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myles, Zachary M; German, Robert R; Wilson, Reda J; Wu, Manxia

    2011-01-01

    Statistical process control (SPC) charts may be used to detect acute variations in the data while simultaneously evaluating unforeseen aberrations that may warrant further investigation by the data user. Using cancer stage data captured by the Summary Stage 2000 (SS2000) variable, we sought to present a brief report highlighting the utility of the SPC chart during the quality assessment of cancer registry data. Using a county-level caseload for the diagnosis period of 2001-2004 (n=25,648), we found the overall variation of the SS2000 variable to be in control during diagnosis years of 2001 and 2002, exceeded the lower control limit (LCL) in 2003, and exceeded the upper control limit (UCL) in 2004; in situ/localized stages were in control throughout the diagnosis period, regional stage exceeded UCL in 2004, and distant stage exceeded the LCL in 2001 and the UCL in 2004. Our application of the SPC chart with cancer registry data illustrates that the SPC chart may serve as a readily available and timely tool for identifying areas of concern during the data collection and quality assessment of central cancer registry data.

  20. A statistical model of uplink inter-cell interference with slow and fast power control mechanisms

    KAUST Repository

    Tabassum, Hina; Yilmaz, Ferkan; Dawy, Zaher; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2013-01-01

    Uplink power control is in essence an interference mitigation technique that aims at minimizing the inter-cell interference (ICI) in cellular networks by reducing the transmit power levels of the mobile users while maintaining their target received signal quality levels at base stations. Power control mechanisms directly impact the interference dynamics and, thus, affect the overall achievable capacity and consumed power in cellular networks. Due to the stochastic nature of wireless channels and mobile users' locations, it is important to derive theoretical models for ICI that can capture the impact of design alternatives related to power control mechanisms. To this end, we derive and verify a novel statistical model for uplink ICI in Generalized-K composite fading environments as a function of various slow and fast power control mechanisms. The derived expressions are then utilized to quantify numerically key network performance metrics that include average resource fairness, average reduction in power consumption, and ergodic capacity. The accuracy of the derived expressions is validated via Monte-Carlo simulations. Results are generated for multiple network scenarios, and insights are extracted to assess various power control mechanisms as a function of system parameters. © 1972-2012 IEEE.

  1. Data exploration, quality control and statistical analysis of ChIP-exo/nexus experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, Rene; Chung, Dongjun; Grass, Jeffrey; Landick, Robert; Keles, Sündüz

    2017-09-06

    ChIP-exo/nexus experiments rely on innovative modifications of the commonly used ChIP-seq protocol for high resolution mapping of transcription factor binding sites. Although many aspects of the ChIP-exo data analysis are similar to those of ChIP-seq, these high throughput experiments pose a number of unique quality control and analysis challenges. We develop a novel statistical quality control pipeline and accompanying R/Bioconductor package, ChIPexoQual, to enable exploration and analysis of ChIP-exo and related experiments. ChIPexoQual evaluates a number of key issues including strand imbalance, library complexity, and signal enrichment of data. Assessment of these features are facilitated through diagnostic plots and summary statistics computed over regions of the genome with varying levels of coverage. We evaluated our QC pipeline with both large collections of public ChIP-exo/nexus data and multiple, new ChIP-exo datasets from Escherichia coli. ChIPexoQual analysis of these datasets resulted in guidelines for using these QC metrics across a wide range of sequencing depths and provided further insights for modelling ChIP-exo data. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  2. Implementation of Statistical Process Control: Evaluating the Mechanical Performance of a Candidate Silicone Elastomer Docking Seal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oravec, Heather Ann; Daniels, Christopher C.

    2014-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has been developing a novel docking system to meet the requirements of future exploration missions to low-Earth orbit and beyond. A dynamic gas pressure seal is located at the main interface between the active and passive mating components of the new docking system. This seal is designed to operate in the harsh space environment, but is also to perform within strict loading requirements while maintaining an acceptable level of leak rate. In this study, a candidate silicone elastomer seal was designed, and multiple subscale test articles were manufactured for evaluation purposes. The force required to fully compress each test article at room temperature was quantified and found to be below the maximum allowable load for the docking system. However, a significant amount of scatter was observed in the test results. Due to the stochastic nature of the mechanical performance of this candidate docking seal, a statistical process control technique was implemented to isolate unusual compression behavior from typical mechanical performance. The results of this statistical analysis indicated a lack of process control, suggesting a variation in the manufacturing phase of the process. Further investigation revealed that changes in the manufacturing molding process had occurred which may have influenced the mechanical performance of the seal. This knowledge improves the chance of this and future space seals to satisfy or exceed design specifications.

  3. Statistical process control of cocrystallization processes: A comparison between OPLS and PLS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Ana F T; Sarraguça, Mafalda Cruz; Ribeiro, Paulo R; Santos, Adenilson O; De Beer, Thomas; Lopes, João Almeida

    2017-03-30

    Orthogonal partial least squares regression (OPLS) is being increasingly adopted as an alternative to partial least squares (PLS) regression due to the better generalization that can be achieved. Particularly in multivariate batch statistical process control (BSPC), the use of OPLS for estimating nominal trajectories is advantageous. In OPLS, the nominal process trajectories are expected to be captured in a single predictive principal component while uncorrelated variations are filtered out to orthogonal principal components. In theory, OPLS will yield a better estimation of the Hotelling's T 2 statistic and corresponding control limits thus lowering the number of false positives and false negatives when assessing the process disturbances. Although OPLS advantages have been demonstrated in the context of regression, its use on BSPC was seldom reported. This study proposes an OPLS-based approach for BSPC of a cocrystallization process between hydrochlorothiazide and p-aminobenzoic acid monitored on-line with near infrared spectroscopy and compares the fault detection performance with the same approach based on PLS. A series of cocrystallization batches with imposed disturbances were used to test the ability to detect abnormal situations by OPLS and PLS-based BSPC methods. Results demonstrated that OPLS was generally superior in terms of sensibility and specificity in most situations. In some abnormal batches, it was found that the imposed disturbances were only detected with OPLS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Editorial: Bayesian benefits for child psychology and psychiatry researchers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldehinkel, Albertine J

    2016-09-01

    For many scientists, performing statistical tests has become an almost automated routine. However, p-values are frequently used and interpreted incorrectly; and even when used appropriately, p-values tend to provide answers that do not match researchers' questions and hypotheses well. Bayesian statistics present an elegant and often more suitable alternative. The Bayesian approach has rarely been applied in child psychology and psychiatry research so far, but the development of user-friendly software packages and tutorials has placed it well within reach now. Because Bayesian analyses require a more refined definition of hypothesized probabilities of possible outcomes than the classical approach, going Bayesian may offer the additional benefit of sparkling the development and refinement of theoretical models in our field. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  5. Bayesian policy reuse

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosman, Benjamin

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Keywords Policy Reuse · Reinforcement Learning · Online Learning · Online Bandits · Transfer Learning · Bayesian Optimisation · Bayesian Decision Theory. 1 Introduction As robots and software agents are becoming more ubiquitous in many applications.... The agent has access to a library of policies (pi1, pi2 and pi3), and has previously experienced a set of task instances (τ1, τ2, τ3, τ4), as well as samples of the utilities of the library policies on these instances (the black dots indicate the means...

  6. Quality control statistic for laboratory analysis and assays in Departamento de Tecnologia de Combustiveis - IPEN-BR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lima, Waldir C. de; Lainetti, Paulo E.O.; Lima, Roberto M. de; Peres, Henrique G.

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this work is the study for introduction of the statistical control in test and analysis realized in the Departamento de Tecnologia de Combustiveis. Are succinctly introduced: theories of statistical process control, elaboration of control graphs, the definition of standards test (or analysis) and how the standards are employed for determination the control limits in the graphs. The more expressive result is the applied form for the practice quality control, moreover it is also exemplified the utilization of one standard of verification and analysis in the laboratory of control. (author)

  7. [Statistical Process Control (SPC) can help prevent treatment errors without increasing costs in radiotherapy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govindarajan, R; Llueguera, E; Melero, A; Molero, J; Soler, N; Rueda, C; Paradinas, C

    2010-01-01

    Statistical Process Control (SPC) was applied to monitor patient set-up in radiotherapy and, when the measured set-up error values indicated a loss of process stability, its root cause was identified and eliminated to prevent set-up errors. Set up errors were measured for medial-lateral (ml), cranial-caudal (cc) and anterior-posterior (ap) dimensions and then the upper control limits were calculated. Once the control limits were known and the range variability was acceptable, treatment set-up errors were monitored using sub-groups of 3 patients, three times each shift. These values were plotted on a control chart in real time. Control limit values showed that the existing variation was acceptable. Set-up errors, measured and plotted on a X chart, helped monitor the set-up process stability and, if and when the stability was lost, treatment was interrupted, the particular cause responsible for the non-random pattern was identified and corrective action was taken before proceeding with the treatment. SPC protocol focuses on controlling the variability due to assignable cause instead of focusing on patient-to-patient variability which normally does not exist. Compared to weekly sampling of set-up error in each and every patient, which may only ensure that just those sampled sessions were set-up correctly, the SPC method enables set-up error prevention in all treatment sessions for all patients and, at the same time, reduces the control costs. Copyright © 2009 SECA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  8. Bayesian Simultaneous Estimation for Means in k Sample Problems

    OpenAIRE

    Imai, Ryo; Kubokawa, Tatsuya; Ghosh, Malay

    2017-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the simultaneous estimation of k population means when one suspects that the k means are nearly equal. As an alternative to the preliminary test estimator based on the test statistics for testing hypothesis of equal means, we derive Bayesian and minimax estimators which shrink individual sample means toward a pooled mean estimator given under the hypothesis. Interestingly, it is shown that both the preliminary test estimator and the Bayesian minimax shrinkage esti...

  9. Progress on Bayesian Inference of the Fast Ion Distribution Function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stagner, L.; Heidbrink, W.W,; Chen, X.

    2013-01-01

    . However, when theory and experiment disagree (for one or more diagnostics), it is unclear how to proceed. Bayesian statistics provides a framework to infer the DF, quantify errors, and reconcile discrepant diagnostic measurements. Diagnostic errors and weight functions that describe the phase space...... sensitivity of the measurements are incorporated into Bayesian likelihood probabilities. Prior probabilities describe physical constraints. This poster will show reconstructions of classically described, low-power, MHD-quiescent distribution functions from actual FIDA measurements. A description of the full...

  10. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  11. Controlling cyclic combustion timing variations using a symbol-statistics predictive approach in an HCCI engine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghazimirsaied, Ahmad; Koch, Charles Robert

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Misfire reduction in a combustion engine based on chaotic theory methods. ► Chaotic theory analysis of cyclic variation of a HCCI engine near misfire. ► Symbol sequence approach is used to predict ignition timing one cycle-ahead. ► Prediction is combined with feedback control to lower HCCI combustion variation. ► Feedback control extends the HCCI operating range into the misfire region. -- Abstract: Cyclic variation of a Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) engine near misfire is analyzed using chaotic theory methods and feedback control is used to stabilize high cyclic variations. Variation of consecutive cycles of θ Pmax (the crank angle of maximum cylinder pressure over an engine cycle) for a Primary Reference Fuel engine is analyzed near misfire operation for five test points with similar conditions but different octane numbers. The return map of the time series of θ Pmax at each combustion cycle reveals the deterministic and random portions of the dynamics near misfire for this HCCI engine. A symbol-statistic approach is used to predict θ Pmax one cycle-ahead. Predicted θ Pmax has similar dynamical behavior to the experimental measurements. Based on this cycle ahead prediction, and using fuel octane as the input, feedback control is used to stabilize the instability of θ Pmax variations at this engine condition near misfire.

  12. Mocapy++ - a toolkit for inference and learning in dynamic Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paluszewski, Martin; Hamelryck, Thomas Wim

    2010-01-01

    Background Mocapy++ is a toolkit for parameter learning and inference in dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). It supports a wide range of DBN architectures and probability distributions, including distributions from directional statistics (the statistics of angles, directions and orientations...

  13. Multivariate statistical process control in product quality review assessment - A case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharbach, M; Cherrah, Y; Vander Heyden, Y; Bouklouze, A

    2017-11-01

    According to the Food and Drug Administration and the European Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) guidelines, Annual Product Review (APR) is a mandatory requirement in GMP. It consists of evaluating a large collection of qualitative or quantitative data in order to verify the consistency of an existing process. According to the Code of Federal Regulation Part 11 (21 CFR 211.180), all finished products should be reviewed annually for the quality standards to determine the need of any change in specification or manufacturing of drug products. Conventional Statistical Process Control (SPC) evaluates the pharmaceutical production process by examining only the effect of a single factor at the time using a Shewhart's chart. It neglects to take into account the interaction between the variables. In order to overcome this issue, Multivariate Statistical Process Control (MSPC) can be used. Our case study concerns an APR assessment, where 164 historical batches containing six active ingredients, manufactured in Morocco, were collected during one year. Each batch has been checked by assaying the six active ingredients by High Performance Liquid Chromatography according to European Pharmacopoeia monographs. The data matrix was evaluated both by SPC and MSPC. The SPC indicated that all batches are under control, while the MSPC, based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA), for the data being either autoscaled or robust scaled, showed four and seven batches, respectively, out of the Hotelling T 2 95% ellipse. Also, an improvement of the capability of the process is observed without the most extreme batches. The MSPC can be used for monitoring subtle changes in the manufacturing process during an APR assessment. Copyright © 2017 Académie Nationale de Pharmacie. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  14. Bayesian networks and boundedly rational expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Ran Spiegler

    2014-01-01

    I present a framework for analyzing decision makers with an imperfect understanding of their environment's correlation structure. The framework borrows the tool of "Bayesian networks", which is ubiquitous in statistics and artificial intelligence. In the model, a decision maker faces an objective multivariate probability distribution (his own action is one of the random variables). He is characterized by a directed acyclic graph over the set of random variables. His subjective belief filters ...

  15. WE-AB-207B-02: A Bayesian Network Approach for Joint Prediction of Tumor Control and Radiation Pneumonitis (RP) in Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Y; McShan, D; Matuszak, M; Hobson, S; Jolly, S; Ten Haken, R; El Naqa, I [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: NSCLC radiotherapy treatment is a trade-off between controlling the tumor while limiting radiation-induced toxicities. Here we identify hierarchical biophysical relationships that could simultaneously influence both local control (LC) and RP by using an integrated Bayesian Networks (BN) approach. Methods: We studied 79 NSCLC patients treated on prospective protocol with 56 cases of LC and 21 events of RP. Beyond dosimetric information, each patient had 193 features including 12 clinical factors, 60 circulating blood cytokines before and during radiotherapy, 62 microRNAs, and 59 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The most relevant biophysical predictors for both LC and RP were identified using a Markov blanket local discovery algorithm and the corresponding BN was constructed using a score-learning algorithm. The area under the free-response receiver operating characteristics (AU-FROC) was used for performance evaluation. Cross-validation was employed to guard against overfitting pitfalls. Results: A BN revealing the biophysical interrelationships jointly in terms of LC and RP was developed and evaluated. The integrated BN included two SNPs, one microRNA, one clinical factor, three pre-treatment cytokines, relative changes of two cytokines between pre and during-treatment, and gEUDs of the GTV (a=-20) and lung (a=1). On cross-validation, the AUC prediction of independent LC was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.75–0.95) and RP was 0.83 (0.73–0.92). The AU-FROC of the integrated BN to predict both LC/RP was 0.81 (0.71–0.90) based on 2000 stratified bootstrap, indicating minimal loss in joint prediction power. Conclusions: We developed a new approach for multiple outcome utility application in radiotherapy based on integrated BN techniques. The BN developed from large-scale retrospective data is able to simultaneously predict LC and RP in NSCLC treatments based on individual patient characteristics. The joint prediction is only slightly compromised compared to

  16. WE-AB-207B-02: A Bayesian Network Approach for Joint Prediction of Tumor Control and Radiation Pneumonitis (RP) in Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Y; McShan, D; Matuszak, M; Hobson, S; Jolly, S; Ten Haken, R; El Naqa, I

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: NSCLC radiotherapy treatment is a trade-off between controlling the tumor while limiting radiation-induced toxicities. Here we identify hierarchical biophysical relationships that could simultaneously influence both local control (LC) and RP by using an integrated Bayesian Networks (BN) approach. Methods: We studied 79 NSCLC patients treated on prospective protocol with 56 cases of LC and 21 events of RP. Beyond dosimetric information, each patient had 193 features including 12 clinical factors, 60 circulating blood cytokines before and during radiotherapy, 62 microRNAs, and 59 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The most relevant biophysical predictors for both LC and RP were identified using a Markov blanket local discovery algorithm and the corresponding BN was constructed using a score-learning algorithm. The area under the free-response receiver operating characteristics (AU-FROC) was used for performance evaluation. Cross-validation was employed to guard against overfitting pitfalls. Results: A BN revealing the biophysical interrelationships jointly in terms of LC and RP was developed and evaluated. The integrated BN included two SNPs, one microRNA, one clinical factor, three pre-treatment cytokines, relative changes of two cytokines between pre and during-treatment, and gEUDs of the GTV (a=-20) and lung (a=1). On cross-validation, the AUC prediction of independent LC was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.75–0.95) and RP was 0.83 (0.73–0.92). The AU-FROC of the integrated BN to predict both LC/RP was 0.81 (0.71–0.90) based on 2000 stratified bootstrap, indicating minimal loss in joint prediction power. Conclusions: We developed a new approach for multiple outcome utility application in radiotherapy based on integrated BN techniques. The BN developed from large-scale retrospective data is able to simultaneously predict LC and RP in NSCLC treatments based on individual patient characteristics. The joint prediction is only slightly compromised compared to

  17. Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

    CERN Document Server

    Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...

  18. Bayesian logistic regression analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an

  19. Bayesian Dark Knowledge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Korattikara, A.; Rathod, V.; Murphy, K.; Welling, M.; Cortes, C.; Lawrence, N.D.; Lee, D.D.; Sugiyama, M.; Garnett, R.

    2015-01-01

    We consider the problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for deep neural networks, which is important in problem settings where we may have little data, and/ or where we need accurate posterior predictive densities p(y|x, D), e.g., for applications involving bandits or active learning. One simple

  20. Bayesian Geostatistical Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Diggle, Peter; Lophaven, Søren Nymand

    2006-01-01

    locations to, or deletion of locations from, an existing design, and prospective design, which consists of choosing positions for a new set of sampling locations. We propose a Bayesian design criterion which focuses on the goal of efficient spatial prediction whilst allowing for the fact that model...

  1. Bayesian grid matching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    2003-01-01

    A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which r...

  2. Bayesian Independent Component Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winther, Ole; Petersen, Kaare Brandt

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...

  3. Bayesian Exponential Smoothing.

    OpenAIRE

    Forbes, C.S.; Snyder, R.D.; Shami, R.S.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, a Bayesian version of the exponential smoothing method of forecasting is proposed. The approach is based on a state space model containing only a single source of error for each time interval. This model allows us to improve current practices surrounding exponential smoothing by providing both point predictions and measures of the uncertainty surrounding them.

  4. Review of the patient positioning reproducibility in head-and-neck radiotherapy using Statistical Process Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sarah J; Herst, Patries M; Louwe, Robert J W

    2018-05-01

    A remarkable improvement in patient positioning was observed after the implementation of various process changes aiming to increase the consistency of patient positioning throughout the radiotherapy treatment chain. However, no tool was available to describe these changes over time in a standardised way. This study reports on the feasibility of Statistical Process Control (SPC) to highlight changes in patient positioning accuracy and facilitate correlation of these changes with the underlying process changes. Metrics were designed to quantify the systematic and random patient deformation as input for the SPC charts. These metrics were based on data obtained from multiple local ROI matches for 191 patients who were treated for head-and-neck cancer during the period 2011-2016. SPC highlighted a significant improvement in patient positioning that coincided with multiple intentional process changes. The observed improvements could be described as a combination of a reduction in outliers and a systematic improvement in the patient positioning accuracy of all patients. SPC is able to track changes in the reproducibility of patient positioning in head-and-neck radiation oncology, and distinguish between systematic and random process changes. Identification of process changes underlying these trends requires additional statistical analysis and seems only possible when the changes do not overlap in time. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. IMPORTANCE OF MATERIAL BALANCES AND THEIR STATISTICAL EVALUATION IN RUSSIAN MATERIAL, PROTECTION, CONTROL AND ACCOUNTING

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fishbone, L.G.

    1999-01-01

    While substantial work has been performed in the Russian MPC and A Program, much more needs to be done at Russian nuclear facilities to complete four necessary steps. These are (1) periodically measuring the physical inventory of nuclear material, (2) continuously measuring the flows of nuclear material, (3) using the results to close the material balance, particularly at bulk processing facilities, and (4) statistically evaluating any apparent loss of nuclear material. The periodic closing of material balances provides an objective test of the facility's system of nuclear material protection, control and accounting. The statistical evaluation using the uncertainties associated with individual measurement systems involved in the calculation of the material balance provides a fair standard for concluding whether the apparent loss of nuclear material means a diversion or whether the facility's accounting system needs improvement. In particular, if unattractive flow material at a facility is not measured well, the accounting system cannot readily detect the loss of attractive material if the latter substantially derives from the former

  6. Person Fit Based on Statistical Process Control in an Adaptive Testing Environment. Research Report 98-13.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Krimpen-Stoop, Edith M. L. A.; Meijer, Rob R.

    Person-fit research in the context of paper-and-pencil tests is reviewed, and some specific problems regarding person fit in the context of computerized adaptive testing (CAT) are discussed. Some new methods are proposed to investigate person fit in a CAT environment. These statistics are based on Statistical Process Control (SPC) theory. A…

  7. Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

    1991-12-01

    Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

  8. Bayesian methodology for reliability model acceptance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Ruoxue; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2003-01-01

    This paper develops a methodology to assess the reliability computation model validity using the concept of Bayesian hypothesis testing, by comparing the model prediction and experimental observation, when there is only one computational model available to evaluate system behavior. Time-independent and time-dependent problems are investigated, with consideration of both cases: with and without statistical uncertainty in the model. The case of time-independent failure probability prediction with no statistical uncertainty is a straightforward application of Bayesian hypothesis testing. However, for the life prediction (time-dependent reliability) problem, a new methodology is developed in this paper to make the same Bayesian hypothesis testing concept applicable. With the existence of statistical uncertainty in the model, in addition to the application of a predictor estimator of the Bayes factor, the uncertainty in the Bayes factor is explicitly quantified through treating it as a random variable and calculating the probability that it exceeds a specified value. The developed method provides a rational criterion to decision-makers for the acceptance or rejection of the computational model

  9. Integrating Statistical Machine Learning in a Semantic Sensor Web for Proactive Monitoring and Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeleke, Jude Adekunle; Moodley, Deshendran; Rens, Gavin; Adewumi, Aderemi Oluyinka

    2017-04-09

    Proactive monitoring and control of our natural and built environments is important in various application scenarios. Semantic Sensor Web technologies have been well researched and used for environmental monitoring applications to expose sensor data for analysis in order to provide responsive actions in situations of interest. While these applications provide quick response to situations, to minimize their unwanted effects, research efforts are still necessary to provide techniques that can anticipate the future to support proactive control, such that unwanted situations can be averted altogether. This study integrates a statistical machine learning based predictive model in a Semantic Sensor Web using stream reasoning. The approach is evaluated in an indoor air quality monitoring case study. A sliding window approach that employs the Multilayer Perceptron model to predict short term PM 2 . 5 pollution situations is integrated into the proactive monitoring and control framework. Results show that the proposed approach can effectively predict short term PM 2 . 5 pollution situations: precision of up to 0.86 and sensitivity of up to 0.85 is achieved over half hour prediction horizons, making it possible for the system to warn occupants or even to autonomously avert the predicted pollution situations within the context of Semantic Sensor Web.

  10. Simulation on a car interior aerodynamic noise control based on statistical energy analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xin; Wang, Dengfeng; Ma, Zhengdong

    2012-09-01

    How to simulate interior aerodynamic noise accurately is an important question of a car interior noise reduction. The unsteady aerodynamic pressure on body surfaces is proved to be the key effect factor of car interior aerodynamic noise control in high frequency on high speed. In this paper, a detail statistical energy analysis (SEA) model is built. And the vibra-acoustic power inputs are loaded on the model for the valid result of car interior noise analysis. The model is the solid foundation for further optimization on car interior noise control. After the most sensitive subsystems for the power contribution to car interior noise are pointed by SEA comprehensive analysis, the sound pressure level of car interior aerodynamic noise can be reduced by improving their sound and damping characteristics. The further vehicle testing results show that it is available to improve the interior acoustic performance by using detailed SEA model, which comprised by more than 80 subsystems, with the unsteady aerodynamic pressure calculation on body surfaces and the materials improvement of sound/damping properties. It is able to acquire more than 2 dB reduction on the central frequency in the spectrum over 800 Hz. The proposed optimization method can be looked as a reference of car interior aerodynamic noise control by the detail SEA model integrated unsteady computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and sensitivity analysis of acoustic contribution.

  11. Integrating Statistical Machine Learning in a Semantic Sensor Web for Proactive Monitoring and Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jude Adekunle Adeleke

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Proactive monitoring and control of our natural and built environments is important in various application scenarios. Semantic Sensor Web technologies have been well researched and used for environmental monitoring applications to expose sensor data for analysis in order to provide responsive actions in situations of interest. While these applications provide quick response to situations, to minimize their unwanted effects, research efforts are still necessary to provide techniques that can anticipate the future to support proactive control, such that unwanted situations can be averted altogether. This study integrates a statistical machine learning based predictive model in a Semantic Sensor Web using stream reasoning. The approach is evaluated in an indoor air quality monitoring case study. A sliding window approach that employs the Multilayer Perceptron model to predict short term PM 2 . 5 pollution situations is integrated into the proactive monitoring and control framework. Results show that the proposed approach can effectively predict short term PM 2 . 5 pollution situations: precision of up to 0.86 and sensitivity of up to 0.85 is achieved over half hour prediction horizons, making it possible for the system to warn occupants or even to autonomously avert the predicted pollution situations within the context of Semantic Sensor Web.

  12. Poster - Thur Eve - 29: Detecting changes in IMRT QA using statistical process control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drever, L; Salomons, G

    2012-07-01

    Statistical process control (SPC) methods were used to analyze 239 measurement based individual IMRT QA events. The selected IMRT QA events were all head and neck (H&N) cases with 70Gy in 35 fractions, and all prostate cases with 76Gy in 38 fractions planned between March 2009 and 2012. The results were used to determine if the tolerance limits currently being used for IMRT QA were able to indicate if the process was under control. The SPC calculations were repeated for IMRT QA of the same type of cases that were planned after the treatment planning system was upgraded from Eclipse version 8.1.18 to version 10.0.39. The initial tolerance limits were found to be acceptable for two of the three metrics tested prior to the upgrade. After the upgrade to the treatment planning system the SPC analysis found that the a priori limits were no longer capable of indicating control for 2 of the 3 metrics analyzed. The changes in the IMRT QA results were clearly identified using SPC, indicating that it is a useful tool for finding changes in the IMRT QA process. Routine application of SPC to IMRT QA results would help to distinguish unintentional trends and changes from the random variation in the IMRT QA results for individual plans. © 2012 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

  13. Statistical process control analysis for patient-specific IMRT and VMAT QA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanghangthum, Taweap; Suriyapee, Sivalee; Srisatit, Somyot; Pawlicki, Todd

    2013-05-01

    This work applied statistical process control to establish the control limits of the % gamma pass of patient-specific intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) quality assurance (QA), and to evaluate the efficiency of the QA process by using the process capability index (Cpml). A total of 278 IMRT QA plans in nasopharyngeal carcinoma were measured with MapCHECK, while 159 VMAT QA plans were undertaken with ArcCHECK. Six megavolts with nine fields were used for the IMRT plan and 2.5 arcs were used to generate the VMAT plans. The gamma (3%/3 mm) criteria were used to evaluate the QA plans. The % gamma passes were plotted on a control chart. The first 50 data points were employed to calculate the control limits. The Cpml was calculated to evaluate the capability of the IMRT/VMAT QA process. The results showed higher systematic errors in IMRT QA than VMAT QA due to the more complicated setup used in IMRT QA. The variation of random errors was also larger in IMRT QA than VMAT QA because the VMAT plan has more continuity of dose distribution. The average % gamma pass was 93.7% ± 3.7% for IMRT and 96.7% ± 2.2% for VMAT. The Cpml value of IMRT QA was 1.60 and VMAT QA was 1.99, which implied that the VMAT QA process was more accurate than the IMRT QA process. Our lower control limit for % gamma pass of IMRT is 85.0%, while the limit for VMAT is 90%. Both the IMRT and VMAT QA processes are good quality because Cpml values are higher than 1.0.

  14. Pierre Gy's sampling theory and sampling practice heterogeneity, sampling correctness, and statistical process control

    CERN Document Server

    Pitard, Francis F

    1993-01-01

    Pierre Gy's Sampling Theory and Sampling Practice, Second Edition is a concise, step-by-step guide for process variability management and methods. Updated and expanded, this new edition provides a comprehensive study of heterogeneity, covering the basic principles of sampling theory and its various applications. It presents many practical examples to allow readers to select appropriate sampling protocols and assess the validity of sampling protocols from others. The variability of dynamic process streams using variography is discussed to help bridge sampling theory with statistical process control. Many descriptions of good sampling devices, as well as descriptions of poor ones, are featured to educate readers on what to look for when purchasing sampling systems. The book uses its accessible, tutorial style to focus on professional selection and use of methods. The book will be a valuable guide for mineral processing engineers; metallurgists; geologists; miners; chemists; environmental scientists; and practit...

  15. Numerical consideration for multiscale statistical process control method applied to nuclear material accountancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Mitsutoshi; Hori, Masato; Asou, Ryoji; Usuda, Shigekazu

    2006-01-01

    The multiscale statistical process control (MSSPC) method is applied to clarify the elements of material unaccounted for (MUF) in large scale reprocessing plants using numerical calculations. Continuous wavelet functions are used to decompose the process data, which simulate batch operation superimposed by various types of disturbance, and the disturbance components included in the data are divided into time and frequency spaces. The diagnosis of MSSPC is applied to distinguish abnormal events from the process data and shows how to detect abrupt and protracted diversions using principle component analysis. Quantitative performance of MSSPC for the time series data is shown with average run lengths given by Monte-Carlo simulation to compare to the non-detection probability β. Recent discussion about bias corrections in material balances is introduced and another approach is presented to evaluate MUF without assuming the measurement error model. (author)

  16. Graph theory applied to noise and vibration control in statistical energy analysis models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guasch, Oriol; Cortés, Lluís

    2009-06-01

    A fundamental aspect of noise and vibration control in statistical energy analysis (SEA) models consists in first identifying and then reducing the energy flow paths between subsystems. In this work, it is proposed to make use of some results from graph theory to address both issues. On the one hand, linear and path algebras applied to adjacency matrices of SEA graphs are used to determine the existence of any order paths between subsystems, counting and labeling them, finding extremal paths, or determining the power flow contributions from groups of paths. On the other hand, a strategy is presented that makes use of graph cut algorithms to reduce the energy flow from a source subsystem to a receiver one, modifying as few internal and coupling loss factors as possible.

  17. Development of statistical and analytical techniques for use in national quality control schemes for steroid hormones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, D.W.; Gaskell, S.J.; Fahmy, D.R.; Joyce, B.G.; Groom, G.V.; Griffiths, K.; Kemp, K.W.; Nix, A.B.J.; Rowlands, R.J.

    1979-01-01

    Adopting the rationale that the improvement of intra-laboratory performance of immunometric assays will enable the assessment of national QC schemes to become more meaningful, the group of participating laboratories has developed statistical and analytical techniques for the improvement of accuracy, precision and monitoring of error for the determination of steroid hormones. These developments are now described and their relevance to NQC schemes discussed. Attention has been focussed on some of the factors necessary for improving standards of quality in immunometric assays and their relevance to laboratories participating in NQC schemes as described. These have included the 'accuracy', precision and robustness of assay procedures as well as improved methods for internal quality control. (Auth.)

  18. Statistical control chart and neural network classification for improving human fall detection

    KAUST Repository

    Harrou, Fouzi; Zerrouki, Nabil; Sun, Ying; Houacine, Amrane

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a statistical approach to detect and classify human falls based on both visual data from camera and accelerometric data captured by accelerometer. Specifically, we first use a Shewhart control chart to detect the presence of potential falls by using accelerometric data. Unfortunately, this chart cannot distinguish real falls from fall-like actions, such as lying down. To bypass this difficulty, a neural network classifier is then applied only on the detected cases through visual data. To assess the performance of the proposed method, experiments are conducted on the publicly available fall detection databases: the University of Rzeszow's fall detection (URFD) dataset. Results demonstrate that the detection phase play a key role in reducing the number of sequences used as input into the neural network classifier for classification, significantly reducing computational burden and achieving better accuracy.

  19. A Statistical Method for Aggregated Wind Power Plants to Provide Secondary Frequency Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Junjie; Ziras, Charalampos; Bindner, Henrik W.

    2017-01-01

    curtailment for aggregated wind power plants providing secondary frequency control (SFC) to the power system. By using historical SFC signals and wind speed data, we calculate metrics for the reserve provision error as a function of the scheduled wind power. We show that wind curtailment can be significantly......The increasing penetration of wind power brings significant challenges to power system operators due to the wind’s inherent uncertainty and variability. Traditionally, power plants and more recently demand response have been used to balance the power system. However, the use of wind power...... as a balancing-power source has also been investigated, especially for wind power dominated power systems such as Denmark. The main drawback is that wind power must be curtailed by setting a lower operating point, in order to offer upward regulation. We propose a statistical approach to reduce wind power...

  20. Statistical evaluation of failures and repairs of the V-1 measuring and control system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurinec, R.; Korec, J.; Mitosinka, J.; Zarnovican, V.

    1984-01-01

    A failure record card system was introduced for evaluating the reliability of the measurement and control equipment of the V-1 nuclear power plant. The SPU-800 microcomputer system is used for recording data on magnetic tape and their transmission to the central data processing department. The data are used for evaluating the reliability of components and circuits and a selection is made of the most failure-prone components, and the causes of failures are evaluated as are failure identification, repair and causes of outages. The system provides monthly, annual and total assessment data since the system was commissioned. The results of the statistical evaluation of failures are used for planning preventive maintenance and for determining optimal repair intervals. (E.S.)

  1. Automatic detection of health changes using statistical process control techniques on measured transfer times of elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldewijns, Greet; Luca, Stijn; Nagels, William; Vanrumste, Bart; Croonenborghs, Tom

    2015-01-01

    It has been shown that gait speed and transfer times are good measures of functional ability in elderly. However, data currently acquired by systems that measure either gait speed or transfer times in the homes of elderly people require manual reviewing by healthcare workers. This reviewing process is time-consuming. To alleviate this burden, this paper proposes the use of statistical process control methods to automatically detect both positive and negative changes in transfer times. Three SPC techniques: tabular CUSUM, standardized CUSUM and EWMA, known for their ability to detect small shifts in the data, are evaluated on simulated transfer times. This analysis shows that EWMA is the best-suited method with a detection accuracy of 82% and an average detection time of 9.64 days.

  2. Statistical control chart and neural network classification for improving human fall detection

    KAUST Repository

    Harrou, Fouzi

    2017-01-05

    This paper proposes a statistical approach to detect and classify human falls based on both visual data from camera and accelerometric data captured by accelerometer. Specifically, we first use a Shewhart control chart to detect the presence of potential falls by using accelerometric data. Unfortunately, this chart cannot distinguish real falls from fall-like actions, such as lying down. To bypass this difficulty, a neural network classifier is then applied only on the detected cases through visual data. To assess the performance of the proposed method, experiments are conducted on the publicly available fall detection databases: the University of Rzeszow\\'s fall detection (URFD) dataset. Results demonstrate that the detection phase play a key role in reducing the number of sequences used as input into the neural network classifier for classification, significantly reducing computational burden and achieving better accuracy.

  3. A bibliometric analysis of 50 years of worldwide research on statistical process control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabiane Letícia Lizarelli

    Full Text Available Abstract An increasing number of papers on statistical process control (SPC has emerged in the last fifty years, especially in the last fifteen years. This may be attributed to the increased global competitiveness generated by innovation and the continuous improvement of products and processes. In this sense, SPC has a fundamentally important role in quality and production systems. The research in this paper considers the context of technological improvement and innovation of products and processes to increase corporate competitiveness. There are several other statistical technics and tools for assisting continuous improvement and innovation of products and processes but, despite the limitations in their use in the improvement projects, there is growing concern about the use of SPC. A gap between the SPC technics taught in engineering courses and their practical applications to industrial problems is observed in empirical research; thus, it is important to understand what has been done and identify the trends in SPC research. The bibliometric study in this paper is proposed in this direction and uses the Web of Science (WoS database. Data analysis indicates that there was a growth rate of more than 90% in the number of publications on SPC after 1990. Our results reveal the countries where these publications have come from, the authors with the highest number of papers and their networks. Main sources of publications are also identified; it is observed that the publications of SPC papers are concentrated in some of the international research journals, not necessarily those with the major high-impact factors. Furthermore, the papers are focused on industrial engineering, operations research and management science fields. The most common term found in the papers was cumulative sum control charts, but new topics have emerged and have been researched in the past ten years, such as multivariate methods for process monitoring and nonparametric methods.

  4. A tale of two audits: statistical process control for improving diabetes care in primary care settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Hussein, Fahad Abdullah

    2008-01-01

    Diabetes constitutes a major burden of disease globally. Both primary and secondary prevention need to improve in order to face this challenge. Improving management of diabetes in primary care is therefore of fundamental importance. The objective of these series of audits was to find means of improving diabetes management in chronic disease mini-clinics in primary health care. In the process, we were able to study the effect and practical usefulness of different audit designs - those measuring clinical outcomes, process of care, or both. King Saud City Family and Community Medicine Centre, Saudi National Guard Health Affairs in Riyadh city, Saudi Arabia. Simple random samples of 30 files were selected every two weeks from a sampling frame of file numbers for all diabetes clients seen over the period. Information was transferred to a form, entered on the computer and an automated response was generated regarding the appropriateness of management, a criterion mutually agreed upon by care providers. The results were plotted on statistical process control charts, p charts, displayed for all employees. Data extraction, archiving, entry, analysis, plotting and design and preparation of p charts were managed by nursing staff specially trained for the purpose by physicians with relevant previous experience. Audit series with mixed outcome and process measures failed to detect any changes in the proportion of non-conforming cases over a period of one year. The process measures series, on the other hand, showed improvement in care corresponding to a reduction in the proportion non-conforming by 10% within a period of 3 months. Non-conformities dropped from a mean of 5.0 to 1.4 over the year (P process audits and feedbacks. Frequent process audits in the context of statistical process control should be supplemented with concurrent outcome audits, once or twice a year.

  5. Varying prior information in Bayesian inversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, Matthew; Curtis, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Bayes' rule is used to combine likelihood and prior probability distributions. The former represents knowledge derived from new data, the latter represents pre-existing knowledge; the Bayesian combination is the so-called posterior distribution, representing the resultant new state of knowledge. While varying the likelihood due to differing data observations is common, there are also situations where the prior distribution must be changed or replaced repeatedly. For example, in mixture density neural network (MDN) inversion, using current methods the neural network employed for inversion needs to be retrained every time prior information changes. We develop a method of prior replacement to vary the prior without re-training the network. Thus the efficiency of MDN inversions can be increased, typically by orders of magnitude when applied to geophysical problems. We demonstrate this for the inversion of seismic attributes in a synthetic subsurface geological reservoir model. We also present results which suggest that prior replacement can be used to control the statistical properties (such as variance) of the final estimate of the posterior in more general (e.g., Monte Carlo based) inverse problem solutions. (paper)

  6. Bayesian optimization for materials science

    CERN Document Server

    Packwood, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science. Bayesian optimization is a promising global optimization technique that originates in the field of machine learning and is starting to gain attention in materials science. For the purpose of materials design, Bayesian optimization can be used to predict new materials with novel properties without extensive screening of candidate materials. For the purpose of computational materials science, Bayesian optimization can be incorporated into first-principles calculations to perform efficient, global structure optimizations. While re...

  7. Adaptive surrogate modeling for response surface approximations with application to bayesian inference

    KAUST Repository

    Prudhomme, Serge; Bryant, Corey M.

    2015-01-01

    Parameter estimation for complex models using Bayesian inference is usually a very costly process as it requires a large number of solves of the forward problem. We show here how the construction of adaptive surrogate models using a posteriori error estimates for quantities of interest can significantly reduce the computational cost in problems of statistical inference. As surrogate models provide only approximations of the true solutions of the forward problem, it is nevertheless necessary to control these errors in order to construct an accurate reduced model with respect to the observables utilized in the identification of the model parameters. Effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated on a numerical example dealing with the Spalart–Allmaras model for the simulation of turbulent channel flows. In particular, we illustrate how Bayesian model selection using the adapted surrogate model in place of solving the coupled nonlinear equations leads to the same quality of results while requiring fewer nonlinear PDE solves.

  8. Adaptive surrogate modeling for response surface approximations with application to bayesian inference

    KAUST Repository

    Prudhomme, Serge

    2015-09-17

    Parameter estimation for complex models using Bayesian inference is usually a very costly process as it requires a large number of solves of the forward problem. We show here how the construction of adaptive surrogate models using a posteriori error estimates for quantities of interest can significantly reduce the computational cost in problems of statistical inference. As surrogate models provide only approximations of the true solutions of the forward problem, it is nevertheless necessary to control these errors in order to construct an accurate reduced model with respect to the observables utilized in the identification of the model parameters. Effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated on a numerical example dealing with the Spalart–Allmaras model for the simulation of turbulent channel flows. In particular, we illustrate how Bayesian model selection using the adapted surrogate model in place of solving the coupled nonlinear equations leads to the same quality of results while requiring fewer nonlinear PDE solves.

  9. A study of finite mixture model: Bayesian approach on financial time series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-07-01

    Recently, statistician have emphasized on the fitting finite mixture model by using Bayesian method. Finite mixture model is a mixture of distributions in modeling a statistical distribution meanwhile Bayesian method is a statistical method that use to fit the mixture model. Bayesian method is being used widely because it has asymptotic properties which provide remarkable result. In addition, Bayesian method also shows consistency characteristic which means the parameter estimates are close to the predictive distributions. In the present paper, the number of components for mixture model is studied by using Bayesian Information Criterion. Identify the number of component is important because it may lead to an invalid result. Later, the Bayesian method is utilized to fit the k-component mixture model in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Lastly, the results showed that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for all selected countries.

  10. Predicting coastal cliff erosion using a Bayesian probabilistic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Plant, Nathaniel G.

    2010-01-01

    Regional coastal cliff retreat is difficult to model due to the episodic nature of failures and the along-shore variability of retreat events. There is a growing demand, however, for predictive models that can be used to forecast areas vulnerable to coastal erosion hazards. Increasingly, probabilistic models are being employed that require data sets of high temporal density to define the joint probability density function that relates forcing variables (e.g. wave conditions) and initial conditions (e.g. cliff geometry) to erosion events. In this study we use a multi-parameter Bayesian network to investigate correlations between key variables that control and influence variations in cliff retreat processes. The network uses Bayesian statistical methods to estimate event probabilities using existing observations. Within this framework, we forecast the spatial distribution of cliff retreat along two stretches of cliffed coast in Southern California. The input parameters are the height and slope of the cliff, a descriptor of material strength based on the dominant cliff-forming lithology, and the long-term cliff erosion rate that represents prior behavior. The model is forced using predicted wave impact hours. Results demonstrate that the Bayesian approach is well-suited to the forward modeling of coastal cliff retreat, with the correct outcomes forecast in 70–90% of the modeled transects. The model also performs well in identifying specific locations of high cliff erosion, thus providing a foundation for hazard mapping. This approach can be employed to predict cliff erosion at time-scales ranging from storm events to the impacts of sea-level rise at the century-scale.

  11. Advances in Statistical Control, Algebraic Systems Theory, and Dynamic Systems Characteristics A Tribute to Michael K Sain

    CERN Document Server

    Won, Chang-Hee; Michel, Anthony N

    2008-01-01

    This volume - dedicated to Michael K. Sain on the occasion of his seventieth birthday - is a collection of chapters covering recent advances in stochastic optimal control theory and algebraic systems theory. Written by experts in their respective fields, the chapters are thematically organized into four parts: Part I focuses on statistical control theory, where the cost function is viewed as a random variable and performance is shaped through cost cumulants. In this respect, statistical control generalizes linear-quadratic-Gaussian and H-infinity control. Part II addresses algebraic systems th

  12. The current state of Bayesian methods in medical product development: survey results and recommendations from the DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natanegara, Fanni; Neuenschwander, Beat; Seaman, John W; Kinnersley, Nelson; Heilmann, Cory R; Ohlssen, David; Rochester, George

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian applications in medical product development have recently gained popularity. Despite many advances in Bayesian methodology and computations, increase in application across the various areas of medical product development has been modest. The DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group (BSWG), which includes representatives from industry, regulatory agencies, and academia, has adopted the vision to ensure Bayesian methods are well understood, accepted more broadly, and appropriately utilized to improve decision making and enhance patient outcomes. As Bayesian applications in medical product development are wide ranging, several sub-teams were formed to focus on various topics such as patient safety, non-inferiority, prior specification, comparative effectiveness, joint modeling, program-wide decision making, analytical tools, and education. The focus of this paper is on the recent effort of the BSWG Education sub-team to administer a Bayesian survey to statisticians across 17 organizations involved in medical product development. We summarize results of this survey, from which we provide recommendations on how to accelerate progress in Bayesian applications throughout medical product development. The survey results support findings from the literature and provide additional insight on regulatory acceptance of Bayesian methods and information on the need for a Bayesian infrastructure within an organization. The survey findings support the claim that only modest progress in areas of education and implementation has been made recently, despite substantial progress in Bayesian statistical research and software availability. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. A systematic review of Bayesian articles in psychology: The last 25 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Schoot, Rens; Winter, Sonja D; Ryan, Oisín; Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; Depaoli, Sarah

    2017-06-01

    Although the statistical tools most often used by researchers in the field of psychology over the last 25 years are based on frequentist statistics, it is often claimed that the alternative Bayesian approach to statistics is gaining in popularity. In the current article, we investigated this claim by performing the very first systematic review of Bayesian psychological articles published between 1990 and 2015 (n = 1,579). We aim to provide a thorough presentation of the role Bayesian statistics plays in psychology. This historical assessment allows us to identify trends and see how Bayesian methods have been integrated into psychological research in the context of different statistical frameworks (e.g., hypothesis testing, cognitive models, IRT, SEM, etc.). We also describe take-home messages and provide "big-picture" recommendations to the field as Bayesian statistics becomes more popular. Our review indicated that Bayesian statistics is used in a variety of contexts across subfields of psychology and related disciplines. There are many different reasons why one might choose to use Bayes (e.g., the use of priors, estimating otherwise intractable models, modeling uncertainty, etc.). We found in this review that the use of Bayes has increased and broadened in the sense that this methodology can be used in a flexible manner to tackle many different forms of questions. We hope this presentation opens the door for a larger discussion regarding the current state of Bayesian statistics, as well as future trends. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Statistical methods to assess and control processes and products during nuclear fuel fabrication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weidinger, H.

    1999-01-01

    Very good statistical tools and techniques are available today to access the quality and the reliability of fabrication process as the original sources for a good and reliable quality of the fabricated processes. Quality control charts of different types play a key role and the high capability of modern electronic data acquisition technologies proved, at least potentially, a high efficiency in the more or less online application of these methods. These techniques focus mainly on stability and the reliability of the fabrication process. In addition, relatively simple statistical tolls are available to access the capability of fabrication process, assuming they are stable, to fulfill the product specifications. All these techniques can only result in as good a product as the product design is able to describe the product requirements necessary for good performance. Therefore it is essential that product design is strictly and closely performance oriented. However, performance orientation is only successful through an open and effective cooperation with the customer who uses or applies those products. During the last one to two decades in the west, a multi-vendor strategy has been developed by the utility, sometimes leading to three different fuel vendors for one reactor core. This development resulted in better economic conditions for the user but did not necessarily increase an open attitude with the vendor toward the using utility. The responsibility of the utility increased considerably to ensure an adequate quality of the fuel they received. As a matter of fact, sometimes the utilities had to pay a high price because of unexpected performance problems. Thus the utilities are now learning that they need to increase their knowledge and experience in the area of nuclear fuel quality management and technology. This process started some time ago in the west. However, it now also reaches the utilities in the eastern countries. (author)

  15. Exploring the use of statistical process control methods to assess course changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vollstedt, Ann-Marie

    This dissertation pertains to the field of Engineering Education. The Department of Mechanical Engineering at the University of Nevada, Reno (UNR) is hosting this dissertation under a special agreement. This study was motivated by the desire to find an improved, quantitative measure of student quality that is both convenient to use and easy to evaluate. While traditional statistical analysis tools such as ANOVA (analysis of variance) are useful, they are somewhat time consuming and are subject to error because they are based on grades, which are influenced by numerous variables, independent of student ability and effort (e.g. inflation and curving). Additionally, grades are currently the only measure of quality in most engineering courses even though most faculty agree that grades do not accurately reflect student quality. Based on a literature search, in this study, quality was defined as content knowledge, cognitive level, self efficacy, and critical thinking. Nineteen treatments were applied to a pair of freshmen classes in an effort in increase the qualities. The qualities were measured via quiz grades, essays, surveys, and online critical thinking tests. Results from the quality tests were adjusted and filtered prior to analysis. All test results were subjected to Chauvenet's criterion in order to detect and remove outlying data. In addition to removing outliers from data sets, it was felt that individual course grades needed adjustment to accommodate for the large portion of the grade that was defined by group work. A new method was developed to adjust grades within each group based on the residual of the individual grades within the group and the portion of the course grade defined by group work. It was found that the grade adjustment method agreed 78% of the time with the manual ii grade changes instructors made in 2009, and also increased the correlation between group grades and individual grades. Using these adjusted grades, Statistical Process Control

  16. Bayesian stratified sampling to assess corpus utility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hochberg, J.; Scovel, C.; Thomas, T.; Hall, S.

    1998-12-01

    This paper describes a method for asking statistical questions about a large text corpus. The authors exemplify the method by addressing the question, ``What percentage of Federal Register documents are real documents, of possible interest to a text researcher or analyst?`` They estimate an answer to this question by evaluating 200 documents selected from a corpus of 45,820 Federal Register documents. Bayesian analysis and stratified sampling are used to reduce the sampling uncertainty of the estimate from over 3,100 documents to fewer than 1,000. A possible application of the method is to establish baseline statistics used to estimate recall rates for information retrieval systems.

  17. QUALITY IMPROVEMENT USING STATISTICAL PROCESS CONTROL TOOLS IN GLASS BOTTLES MANUFACTURING COMPANY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonatan Mengesha Awaj

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to survive in a competitive market, improving quality and productivity of product or process is a must for any company. This study is about to apply the statistical process control (SPC tools in the production processing line and on final product in order to reduce defects by identifying where the highest waste is occur at and to give suggestion for improvement. The approach used in this study is direct observation, thorough examination of production process lines, brain storming session, fishbone diagram, and information has been collected from potential customers and company's workers through interview and questionnaire, Pareto chart/analysis and control chart (p-chart was constructed. It has been found that the company has many problems; specifically there is high rejection or waste in the production processing line. The highest waste occurs in melting process line which causes loss due to trickle and in the forming process line which causes loss due to defective product rejection. The vital few problems were identified, it was found that the blisters, double seam, stone, pressure failure and overweight are the vital few problems. The principal aim of the study is to create awareness to quality team how to use SPC tools in the problem analysis, especially to train quality team on how to held an effective brainstorming session, and exploit these data in cause-and-effect diagram construction, Pareto analysis and control chart construction. The major causes of non-conformities and root causes of the quality problems were specified, and possible remedies were proposed. Although the company has many constraints to implement all suggestion for improvement within short period of time, the company recognized that the suggestion will provide significant productivity improvement in the long run.

  18. Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Sánchez-Taltavull

    Full Text Available Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities' measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low-especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities' signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset.

  19. Bayesian analysis of deterministic and stochastic prisoner's dilemma games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Howard Kunreuther

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares the behavior of individuals playing a classic two-person deterministic prisoner's dilemma (PD game with choice data obtained from repeated interdependent security prisoner's dilemma games with varying probabilities of loss and the ability to learn (or not learn about the actions of one's counterpart, an area of recent interest in experimental economics. This novel data set, from a series of controlled laboratory experiments, is analyzed using Bayesian hierarchical methods, the first application of such methods in this research domain. We find that individuals are much more likely to be cooperative when payoffs are deterministic than when the outcomes are probabilistic. A key factor explaining this difference is that subjects in a stochastic PD game respond not just to what their counterparts did but also to whether or not they suffered a loss. These findings are interpreted in the context of behavioral theories of commitment, altruism and reciprocity. The work provides a linkage between Bayesian statistics, experimental economics, and consumer psychology.

  20. Bayesian community detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel N

    2012-01-01

    Many networks of scientific interest naturally decompose into clusters or communities with comparatively fewer external than internal links; however, current Bayesian models of network communities do not exert this intuitive notion of communities. We formulate a nonparametric Bayesian model...... for community detection consistent with an intuitive definition of communities and present a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for inferring the community structure. A Matlab toolbox with the proposed inference procedure is available for download. On synthetic and real networks, our model detects communities...... consistent with ground truth, and on real networks, it outperforms existing approaches in predicting missing links. This suggests that community structure is an important structural property of networks that should be explicitly modeled....