WorldWideScience

Sample records for bayesian spatial modeling

  1. Bayesian Spatial Modelling with R-INLA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Finn Lindgren

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The principles behind the interface to continuous domain spatial models in the R- INLA software package for R are described. The integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA approach proposed by Rue, Martino, and Chopin (2009 is a computationally effective alternative to MCMC for Bayesian inference. INLA is designed for latent Gaussian models, a very wide and flexible class of models ranging from (generalized linear mixed to spatial and spatio-temporal models. Combined with the stochastic partial differential equation approach (SPDE, Lindgren, Rue, and Lindstrm 2011, one can accommodate all kinds of geographically referenced data, including areal and geostatistical ones, as well as spatial point process data. The implementation interface covers stationary spatial mod- els, non-stationary spatial models, and also spatio-temporal models, and is applicable in epidemiology, ecology, environmental risk assessment, as well as general geostatistics.

  2. Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lawson, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    .... Exploring these new developments, Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology, Second Edition provides an up-to-date, cohesive account of the full range of Bayesian disease mapping methods and applications...

  3. Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lawson, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Since the publication of the first edition, many new Bayesian tools and methods have been developed for space-time data analysis, the predictive modeling of health outcomes, and other spatial biostatistical areas...

  4. Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Carlos; Johnson, Devin S; Dunk, Jeffrey R; Zielinski, William J

    2010-12-01

    Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence-absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site-level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence-absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad-scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km(2) hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies

  5. Nonparametric Bayesian models for a spatial covariance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reich, Brian J; Fuentes, Montserrat

    2012-01-01

    A crucial step in the analysis of spatial data is to estimate the spatial correlation function that determines the relationship between a spatial process at two locations. The standard approach to selecting the appropriate correlation function is to use prior knowledge or exploratory analysis, such as a variogram analysis, to select the correct parametric correlation function. Rather that selecting a particular parametric correlation function, we treat the covariance function as an unknown function to be estimated from the data. We propose a flexible prior for the correlation function to provide robustness to the choice of correlation function. We specify the prior for the correlation function using spectral methods and the Dirichlet process prior, which is a common prior for an unknown distribution function. Our model does not require Gaussian data or spatial locations on a regular grid. The approach is demonstrated using a simulation study as well as an analysis of California air pollution data.

  6. Spatial and spatio-temporal bayesian models with R - INLA

    CERN Document Server

    Blangiardo, Marta

    2015-01-01

    Dedication iiiPreface ix1 Introduction 11.1 Why spatial and spatio-temporal statistics? 11.2 Why do we use Bayesian methods for modelling spatial and spatio-temporal structures? 21.3 Why INLA? 31.4 Datasets 32 Introduction to 212.1 The language 212.2 objects 222.3 Data and session management 342.4 Packages 352.5 Programming in 362.6 Basic statistical analysis with 393 Introduction to Bayesian Methods 533.1 Bayesian Philosophy 533.2 Basic Probability Elements 573.3 Bayes Theorem 623.4 Prior and Posterior Distributions 643.5 Working with the Posterior Distribution 663.6 Choosing the Prior Distr

  7. Assessing fit in Bayesian models for spatial processes

    KAUST Repository

    Jun, M.

    2014-09-16

    © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Gaussian random fields are frequently used to model spatial and spatial-temporal data, particularly in geostatistical settings. As much of the attention of the statistics community has been focused on defining and estimating the mean and covariance functions of these processes, little effort has been devoted to developing goodness-of-fit tests to allow users to assess the models\\' adequacy. We describe a general goodness-of-fit test and related graphical diagnostics for assessing the fit of Bayesian Gaussian process models using pivotal discrepancy measures. Our method is applicable for both regularly and irregularly spaced observation locations on planar and spherical domains. The essential idea behind our method is to evaluate pivotal quantities defined for a realization of a Gaussian random field at parameter values drawn from the posterior distribution. Because the nominal distribution of the resulting pivotal discrepancy measures is known, it is possible to quantitatively assess model fit directly from the output of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms used to sample from the posterior distribution on the parameter space. We illustrate our method in a simulation study and in two applications.

  8. Assessing fit in Bayesian models for spatial processes

    KAUST Repository

    Jun, M.; Katzfuss, M.; Hu, J.; Johnson, V. E.

    2014-01-01

    © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Gaussian random fields are frequently used to model spatial and spatial-temporal data, particularly in geostatistical settings. As much of the attention of the statistics community has been focused on defining and estimating the mean and covariance functions of these processes, little effort has been devoted to developing goodness-of-fit tests to allow users to assess the models' adequacy. We describe a general goodness-of-fit test and related graphical diagnostics for assessing the fit of Bayesian Gaussian process models using pivotal discrepancy measures. Our method is applicable for both regularly and irregularly spaced observation locations on planar and spherical domains. The essential idea behind our method is to evaluate pivotal quantities defined for a realization of a Gaussian random field at parameter values drawn from the posterior distribution. Because the nominal distribution of the resulting pivotal discrepancy measures is known, it is possible to quantitatively assess model fit directly from the output of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms used to sample from the posterior distribution on the parameter space. We illustrate our method in a simulation study and in two applications.

  9. Bayesian spatial transformation models with applications in neuroimaging data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, Michelle F; Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G

    2013-12-01

    The aim of this article is to develop a class of spatial transformation models (STM) to spatially model the varying association between imaging measures in a three-dimensional (3D) volume (or 2D surface) and a set of covariates. The proposed STM include a varying Box-Cox transformation model for dealing with the issue of non-Gaussian distributed imaging data and a Gaussian Markov random field model for incorporating spatial smoothness of the imaging data. Posterior computation proceeds via an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Simulations and real data analysis demonstrate that the STM significantly outperforms the voxel-wise linear model with Gaussian noise in recovering meaningful geometric patterns. Our STM is able to reveal important brain regions with morphological changes in children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  10. Bayesian spatial modeling of HIV mortality via zero-inflated Poisson models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musal, Muzaffer; Aktekin, Tevfik

    2013-01-30

    In this paper, we investigate the effects of poverty and inequality on the number of HIV-related deaths in 62 New York counties via Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson models that exhibit spatial dependence. We quantify inequality via the Theil index and poverty via the ratios of two Census 2000 variables, the number of people under the poverty line and the number of people for whom poverty status is determined, in each Zip Code Tabulation Area. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of inequality and poverty in addition to spatial dependence between neighboring regions on HIV mortality rate, which can lead to improved health resource allocation decisions. In modeling county-specific HIV counts, we propose Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson models whose rates are functions of both covariate and spatial/random effects. To show how the proposed models work, we used three different publicly available data sets: TIGER Shapefiles, Census 2000, and mortality index files. In addition, we introduce parameter estimation issues of Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson models and discuss MCMC method implications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Bayesian prediction of spatial count data using generalized linear mixed models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Ole Fredslund; Waagepetersen, Rasmus Plenge

    2002-01-01

    Spatial weed count data are modeled and predicted using a generalized linear mixed model combined with a Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo. Informative priors for a data set with sparse sampling are elicited using a previously collected data set with extensive sampling. Furthermore, ...

  12. Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W Redding

    Full Text Available Statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of taxa (Species Distribution Models, SDMs commonly rely on available occurrence data, which is often clumped and geographically restricted. Although available SDM methods address some of these factors, they could be more directly and accurately modelled using a spatially-explicit approach. Software to fit models with spatial autocorrelation parameters in SDMs are now widely available, but whether such approaches for inferring SDMs aid predictions compared to other methodologies is unknown. Here, within a simulated environment using 1000 generated species' ranges, we compared the performance of two commonly used non-spatial SDM methods (Maximum Entropy Modelling, MAXENT and boosted regression trees, BRT, to a spatial Bayesian SDM method (fitted using R-INLA, when the underlying data exhibit varying combinations of clumping and geographic restriction. Finally, we tested how any recommended methodological settings designed to account for spatially non-random patterns in the data impact inference. Spatial Bayesian SDM method was the most consistently accurate method, being in the top 2 most accurate methods in 7 out of 8 data sampling scenarios. Within high-coverage sample datasets, all methods performed fairly similarly. When sampling points were randomly spread, BRT had a 1-3% greater accuracy over the other methods and when samples were clumped, the spatial Bayesian SDM method had a 4%-8% better AUC score. Alternatively, when sampling points were restricted to a small section of the true range all methods were on average 10-12% less accurate, with greater variation among the methods. Model inference under the recommended settings to account for autocorrelation was not impacted by clumping or restriction of data, except for the complexity of the spatial regression term in the spatial Bayesian model. Methods, such as those made available by R-INLA, can be successfully used to account

  13. Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redding, David W; Lucas, Tim C D; Blackburn, Tim M; Jones, Kate E

    2017-01-01

    Statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of taxa (Species Distribution Models, SDMs) commonly rely on available occurrence data, which is often clumped and geographically restricted. Although available SDM methods address some of these factors, they could be more directly and accurately modelled using a spatially-explicit approach. Software to fit models with spatial autocorrelation parameters in SDMs are now widely available, but whether such approaches for inferring SDMs aid predictions compared to other methodologies is unknown. Here, within a simulated environment using 1000 generated species' ranges, we compared the performance of two commonly used non-spatial SDM methods (Maximum Entropy Modelling, MAXENT and boosted regression trees, BRT), to a spatial Bayesian SDM method (fitted using R-INLA), when the underlying data exhibit varying combinations of clumping and geographic restriction. Finally, we tested how any recommended methodological settings designed to account for spatially non-random patterns in the data impact inference. Spatial Bayesian SDM method was the most consistently accurate method, being in the top 2 most accurate methods in 7 out of 8 data sampling scenarios. Within high-coverage sample datasets, all methods performed fairly similarly. When sampling points were randomly spread, BRT had a 1-3% greater accuracy over the other methods and when samples were clumped, the spatial Bayesian SDM method had a 4%-8% better AUC score. Alternatively, when sampling points were restricted to a small section of the true range all methods were on average 10-12% less accurate, with greater variation among the methods. Model inference under the recommended settings to account for autocorrelation was not impacted by clumping or restriction of data, except for the complexity of the spatial regression term in the spatial Bayesian model. Methods, such as those made available by R-INLA, can be successfully used to account for spatial

  14. Spatially-Explicit Bayesian Information Entropy Metrics for Calibrating Landscape Transformation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostas Alexandridis

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Assessing spatial model performance often presents challenges related to the choice and suitability of traditional statistical methods in capturing the true validity and dynamics of the predicted outcomes. The stochastic nature of many of our contemporary spatial models of land use change necessitate the testing and development of new and innovative methodologies in statistical spatial assessment. In many cases, spatial model performance depends critically on the spatially-explicit prior distributions, characteristics, availability and prevalence of the variables and factors under study. This study explores the statistical spatial characteristics of statistical model assessment of modeling land use change dynamics in a seven-county study area in South-Eastern Wisconsin during the historical period of 1963–1990. The artificial neural network-based Land Transformation Model (LTM predictions are used to compare simulated with historical land use transformations in urban/suburban landscapes. We introduce a range of Bayesian information entropy statistical spatial metrics for assessing the model performance across multiple simulation testing runs. Bayesian entropic estimates of model performance are compared against information-theoretic stochastic entropy estimates and theoretically-derived accuracy assessments. We argue for the critical role of informational uncertainty across different scales of spatial resolution in informing spatial landscape model assessment. Our analysis reveals how incorporation of spatial and landscape information asymmetry estimates can improve our stochastic assessments of spatial model predictions. Finally our study shows how spatially-explicit entropic classification accuracy estimates can work closely with dynamic modeling methodologies in improving our scientific understanding of landscape change as a complex adaptive system and process.

  15. Bayesian spatial semi-parametric modeling of HIV variation in Kenya.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar Ngesa

    Full Text Available Spatial statistics has seen rapid application in many fields, especially epidemiology and public health. Many studies, nonetheless, make limited use of the geographical location information and also usually assume that the covariates, which are related to the response variable, have linear effects. We develop a Bayesian semi-parametric regression model for HIV prevalence data. Model estimation and inference is based on fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (McMC. The model is applied to HIV prevalence data among men in Kenya, derived from the Kenya AIDS indicator survey, with n = 3,662. Past studies have concluded that HIV infection has a nonlinear association with age. In this study a smooth function based on penalized regression splines is used to estimate this nonlinear effect. Other covariates were assumed to have a linear effect. Spatial references to the counties were modeled as both structured and unstructured spatial effects. We observe that circumcision reduces the risk of HIV infection. The results also indicate that men in the urban areas were more likely to be infected by HIV as compared to their rural counterpart. Men with higher education had the lowest risk of HIV infection. A nonlinear relationship between HIV infection and age was established. Risk of HIV infection increases with age up to the age of 40 then declines with increase in age. Men who had STI in the last 12 months were more likely to be infected with HIV. Also men who had ever used a condom were found to have higher likelihood to be infected by HIV. A significant spatial variation of HIV infection in Kenya was also established. The study shows the practicality and flexibility of Bayesian semi-parametric regression model in analyzing epidemiological data.

  16. Exploring neighborhood inequality in female breast cancer incidence in Tehran using Bayesian spatial models and a spatial scan statistic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erfan Ayubi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to explore the spatial pattern of female breast cancer (BC incidence at the neighborhood level in Tehran, Iran. METHODS The present study included all registered incident cases of female BC from March 2008 to March 2011. The raw standardized incidence ratio (SIR of BC for each neighborhood was estimated by comparing observed cases relative to expected cases. The estimated raw SIRs were smoothed by a Besag, York, and Mollie spatial model and the spatial empirical Bayesian method. The purely spatial scan statistic was used to identify spatial clusters. RESULTS There were 4,175 incident BC cases in the study area from 2008 to 2011, of which 3,080 were successfully geocoded to the neighborhood level. Higher than expected rates of BC were found in neighborhoods located in northern and central Tehran, whereas lower rates appeared in southern areas. The most likely cluster of higher than expected BC incidence involved neighborhoods in districts 3 and 6, with an observed-to-expected ratio of 3.92 (p<0.001, whereas the most likely cluster of lower than expected rates involved neighborhoods in districts 17, 18, and 19, with an observed-to-expected ratio of 0.05 (p<0.001. CONCLUSIONS Neighborhood-level inequality in the incidence of BC exists in Tehran. These findings can serve as a basis for resource allocation and preventive strategies in at-risk areas.

  17. Comparison of Extreme Precipitation Return Levels using Spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling versus Regional Frequency Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, C. A.; Skahill, B. E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Karlovits, G. S.; England, J. F.; Duren, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    We compare gridded extreme precipitation return levels obtained using spatial Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) with their respective counterparts from a traditional regional frequency analysis (RFA) using the same set of extreme precipitation data. Our study area is the 11,478 square mile Willamette River basin (WRB) located in northwestern Oregon, a major tributary of the Columbia River whose 187 miles long main stem, the Willamette River, flows northward between the Coastal and Cascade Ranges. The WRB contains approximately two ­thirds of Oregon's population and 20 of the 25 most populous cities in the state. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Portland District operates thirteen dams and extreme precipitation estimates are required to support risk­ informed hydrologic analyses as part of the USACE Dam Safety Program. Our intent is to profile for the USACE an alternate methodology to an RFA that was developed in 2008 due to the lack of an official NOAA Atlas 14 update for the state of Oregon. We analyze 24-hour annual precipitation maxima data for the WRB utilizing the spatial BHM R package "spatial.gev.bma", which has been shown to be efficient in developing coherent maps of extreme precipitation by return level. Our BHM modeling analysis involved application of leave-one-out cross validation (LOO-CV), which not only supported model selection but also a comprehensive assessment of location specific model performance. The LOO-CV results will provide a basis for the BHM RFA comparison.

  18. Spatial Inequalities in the Incidence of Colorectal Cancer and Associated Factors in the Neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran: Bayesian Spatial Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamyar Mansori

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives The aim of this study was to determine the factors associated with the spatial distribution of the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC in the neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran using Bayesian spatial models. Methods This ecological study was implemented in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Socioeconomic variables, risk factors, and health costs were extracted from the Equity Assessment Study conducted in Tehran. The data on CRC incidence were extracted from the Iranian population-based cancer registry. The Besag-York-Mollié (BYM model was used to identify factors associated with the spatial distribution of CRC incidence. The software programs OpenBUGS version 3.2.3, ArcGIS 10.3, and GeoDa were used for the analysis. Results The Moran index was statistically significant for all the variables studied (p<0.05. The BYM model showed that having a women head of household (median standardized incidence ratio [SIR], 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 2.53, living in a rental house (median SIR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.96, not consuming milk daily (median SIR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.94 and having greater household health expenditures (median SIR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.68 were associated with a statistically significant elevation in the SIR of CRC. The median (interquartile range and mean (standard deviation values of the SIR of CRC, with the inclusion of all the variables studied in the model, were 0.57 (1.01 and 1.05 (1.31, respectively. Conclusions Inequality was found in the spatial distribution of CRC incidence in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Paying attention to this inequality and the factors associated with it may be useful for resource allocation and developing preventive strategies in atrisk areas.

  19. Bayesian Graphical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2016-01-01

    Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes...

  20. A Bayesian spatial model for neuroimaging data based on biologically informed basis functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huertas, Ismael; Oldehinkel, Marianne; van Oort, Erik S B; Garcia-Solis, David; Mir, Pablo; Beckmann, Christian F; Marquand, Andre F

    2017-11-01

    The dominant approach to neuroimaging data analysis employs the voxel as the unit of computation. While convenient, voxels lack biological meaning and their size is arbitrarily determined by the resolution of the image. Here, we propose a multivariate spatial model in which neuroimaging data are characterised as a linearly weighted combination of multiscale basis functions which map onto underlying brain nuclei or networks or nuclei. In this model, the elementary building blocks are derived to reflect the functional anatomy of the brain during the resting state. This model is estimated using a Bayesian framework which accurately quantifies uncertainty and automatically finds the most accurate and parsimonious combination of basis functions describing the data. We demonstrate the utility of this framework by predicting quantitative SPECT images of striatal dopamine function and we compare a variety of basis sets including generic isotropic functions, anatomical representations of the striatum derived from structural MRI, and two different soft functional parcellations of the striatum derived from resting-state fMRI (rfMRI). We found that a combination of ∼50 multiscale functional basis functions accurately represented the striatal dopamine activity, and that functional basis functions derived from an advanced parcellation technique known as Instantaneous Connectivity Parcellation (ICP) provided the most parsimonious models of dopamine function. Importantly, functional basis functions derived from resting fMRI were more accurate than both structural and generic basis sets in representing dopamine function in the striatum for a fixed model order. We demonstrate the translational validity of our framework by constructing classification models for discriminating parkinsonian disorders and their subtypes. Here, we show that ICP approach is the only basis set that performs well across all comparisons and performs better overall than the classical voxel-based approach

  1. Functional inverted Wishart for Bayesian multivariate spatial modeling with application to regional climatology model data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, L L; Szczesniak, R D; Wang, X

    2017-11-01

    Modern environmental and climatological studies produce multiple outcomes at high spatial resolutions. Multivariate spatial modeling is an established means to quantify cross-correlation among outcomes. However, existing models typically suffer from poor computational efficiency and lack the flexibility to simultaneously estimate auto- and cross-covariance structures. In this article, we undertake a novel construction of covariance by utilizing spectral convolution and by imposing an inverted Wishart prior on the cross-correlation structure. The cross-correlation structure with this functional inverted Wishart prior flexibly accommodates not only positive but also weak or negative associations among outcomes while preserving spatial resolution. Furthermore, the proposed model is computationally efficient and produces easily interpretable results, including the individual autocovariances and full cross-correlation matrices, as well as a partial cross-correlation matrix reflecting the outcome correlation after excluding the effects caused by spatial convolution. The model is examined using simulated data sets under different scenarios. It is also applied to the data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program, examining long-term associations between surface outcomes for air temperature, pressure, humidity, and radiation, on the land area of the North American West Coast. Results and predictive performance are compared with findings from approaches using convolution only or coregionalization.

  2. Functional inverted Wishart for Bayesian multivariate spatial modeling with application to regional climatology model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, L. L.; Szczesniak, R. D.; Wang, X.

    2018-01-01

    Modern environmental and climatological studies produce multiple outcomes at high spatial resolutions. Multivariate spatial modeling is an established means to quantify cross-correlation among outcomes. However, existing models typically suffer from poor computational efficiency and lack the flexibility to simultaneously estimate auto- and cross-covariance structures. In this article, we undertake a novel construction of covariance by utilizing spectral convolution and by imposing an inverted Wishart prior on the cross-correlation structure. The cross-correlation structure with this functional inverted Wishart prior flexibly accommodates not only positive but also weak or negative associations among outcomes while preserving spatial resolution. Furthermore, the proposed model is computationally efficient and produces easily interpretable results, including the individual autocovariances and full cross-correlation matrices, as well as a partial cross-correlation matrix reflecting the outcome correlation after excluding the effects caused by spatial convolution. The model is examined using simulated data sets under different scenarios. It is also applied to the data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program, examining long-term associations between surface outcomes for air temperature, pressure, humidity, and radiation, on the land area of the North American West Coast. Results and predictive performance are compared with findings from approaches using convolution only or coregionalization. PMID:29576735

  3. Order-Constrained Reference Priors with Implications for Bayesian Isotonic Regression, Analysis of Covariance and Spatial Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Maozhen

    Selecting an appropriate prior distribution is a fundamental issue in Bayesian Statistics. In this dissertation, under the framework provided by Berger and Bernardo, I derive the reference priors for several models which include: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)/Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) models with a categorical variable under common ordering constraints, the conditionally autoregressive (CAR) models and the simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models with a spatial autoregression parameter rho considered. The performances of reference priors for ANOVA/ANCOVA models are evaluated by simulation studies with comparisons to Jeffreys' prior and Least Squares Estimation (LSE). The priors are then illustrated in a Bayesian model of the "Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in New Mexico" data, where the relationship between the type 2 diabetes risk (through Hemoglobin A1c) and different smoking levels is investigated. In both simulation studies and real data set modeling, the reference priors that incorporate internal order information show good performances and can be used as default priors. The reference priors for the CAR and SAR models are also illustrated in the "1999 SAT State Average Verbal Scores" data with a comparison to a Uniform prior distribution. Due to the complexity of the reference priors for both CAR and SAR models, only a portion (12 states in the Midwest) of the original data set is considered. The reference priors can give a different marginal posterior distribution compared to a Uniform prior, which provides an alternative for prior specifications for areal data in Spatial statistics.

  4. Disease Mapping and Regression with Count Data in the Presence of Overdispersion and Spatial Autocorrelation: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohebbi, Mohammadreza; Wolfe, Rory; Forbes, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    This paper applies the generalised linear model for modelling geographical variation to esophageal cancer incidence data in the Caspian region of Iran. The data have a complex and hierarchical structure that makes them suitable for hierarchical analysis using Bayesian techniques, but with care required to deal with problems arising from counts of events observed in small geographical areas when overdispersion and residual spatial autocorrelation are present. These considerations lead to nine regression models derived from using three probability distributions for count data: Poisson, generalised Poisson and negative binomial, and three different autocorrelation structures. We employ the framework of Bayesian variable selection and a Gibbs sampling based technique to identify significant cancer risk factors. The framework deals with situations where the number of possible models based on different combinations of candidate explanatory variables is large enough such that calculation of posterior probabilities for all models is difficult or infeasible. The evidence from applying the modelling methodology suggests that modelling strategies based on the use of generalised Poisson and negative binomial with spatial autocorrelation work well and provide a robust basis for inference. PMID:24413702

  5. Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: a Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J Rodhouse

    Full Text Available Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas] population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones" with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity--a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

  6. Analysis of the Spatial Variation of Network-Constrained Phenomena Represented by a Link Attribute Using a Hierarchical Bayesian Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhensheng Wang

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The spatial variation of geographical phenomena is a classical problem in spatial data analysis and can provide insight into underlying processes. Traditional exploratory methods mostly depend on the planar distance assumption, but many spatial phenomena are constrained to a subset of Euclidean space. In this study, we apply a method based on a hierarchical Bayesian model to analyse the spatial variation of network-constrained phenomena represented by a link attribute in conjunction with two experiments based on a simplified hypothetical network and a complex road network in Shenzhen that includes 4212 urban facility points of interest (POIs for leisure activities. Then, the methods named local indicators of network-constrained clusters (LINCS are applied to explore local spatial patterns in the given network space. The proposed method is designed for phenomena that are represented by attribute values of network links and is capable of removing part of random variability resulting from small-sample estimation. The effects of spatial dependence and the base distribution are also considered in the proposed method, which could be applied in the fields of urban planning and safety research.

  7. A Bayesian Spatial Model to Predict Disease Status Using Imaging Data From Various Modalities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenqiong Xue

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Relating disease status to imaging data stands to increase the clinical significance of neuroimaging studies. Many neurological and psychiatric disorders involve complex, systems-level alterations that manifest in functional and structural properties of the brain and possibly other clinical and biologic measures. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to predict disease status, which is able to incorporate information from both functional and structural brain imaging scans. We consider a two-stage whole brain parcellation, partitioning the brain into 282 subregions, and our model accounts for correlations between voxels from different brain regions defined by the parcellations. Our approach models the imaging data and uses posterior predictive probabilities to perform prediction. The estimates of our model parameters are based on samples drawn from the joint posterior distribution using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods. We evaluate our method by examining the prediction accuracy rates based on leave-one-out cross validation, and we employ an importance sampling strategy to reduce the computation time. We conduct both whole-brain and voxel-level prediction and identify the brain regions that are highly associated with the disease based on the voxel-level prediction results. We apply our model to multimodal brain imaging data from a study of Parkinson's disease. We achieve extremely high accuracy, in general, and our model identifies key regions contributing to accurate prediction including caudate, putamen, and fusiform gyrus as well as several sensory system regions.

  8. Spatial Bayesian latent factor regression modeling of coordinate-based meta-analysis data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montagna, Silvia; Wager, Tor; Barrett, Lisa Feldman; Johnson, Timothy D; Nichols, Thomas E

    2018-03-01

    Now over 20 years old, functional MRI (fMRI) has a large and growing literature that is best synthesised with meta-analytic tools. As most authors do not share image data, only the peak activation coordinates (foci) reported in the article are available for Coordinate-Based Meta-Analysis (CBMA). Neuroimaging meta-analysis is used to (i) identify areas of consistent activation; and (ii) build a predictive model of task type or cognitive process for new studies (reverse inference). To simultaneously address these aims, we propose a Bayesian point process hierarchical model for CBMA. We model the foci from each study as a doubly stochastic Poisson process, where the study-specific log intensity function is characterized as a linear combination of a high-dimensional basis set. A sparse representation of the intensities is guaranteed through latent factor modeling of the basis coefficients. Within our framework, it is also possible to account for the effect of study-level covariates (meta-regression), significantly expanding the capabilities of the current neuroimaging meta-analysis methods available. We apply our methodology to synthetic data and neuroimaging meta-analysis datasets. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  9. Spatial Bayesian Latent Factor Regression Modeling of Coordinate-based Meta-analysis Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montagna, Silvia; Wager, Tor; Barrett, Lisa Feldman; Johnson, Timothy D.; Nichols, Thomas E.

    2017-01-01

    Summary Now over 20 years old, functional MRI (fMRI) has a large and growing literature that is best synthesised with meta-analytic tools. As most authors do not share image data, only the peak activation coordinates (foci) reported in the paper are available for Coordinate-Based Meta-Analysis (CBMA). Neuroimaging meta-analysis is used to 1) identify areas of consistent activation; and 2) build a predictive model of task type or cognitive process for new studies (reverse inference). To simultaneously address these aims, we propose a Bayesian point process hierarchical model for CBMA. We model the foci from each study as a doubly stochastic Poisson process, where the study-specific log intensity function is characterised as a linear combination of a high-dimensional basis set. A sparse representation of the intensities is guaranteed through latent factor modeling of the basis coefficients. Within our framework, it is also possible to account for the effect of study-level covariates (meta-regression), significantly expanding the capabilities of the current neuroimaging meta-analysis methods available. We apply our methodology to synthetic data and neuroimaging meta-analysis datasets. PMID:28498564

  10. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  11. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  12. The effect of road network patterns on pedestrian safety: A zone-based Bayesian spatial modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Qiang; Xu, Pengpeng; Pei, Xin; Wong, S C; Yao, Danya

    2017-02-01

    Pedestrian safety is increasingly recognized as a major public health concern. Extensive safety studies have been conducted to examine the influence of multiple variables on the occurrence of pedestrian-vehicle crashes. However, the explicit relationship between pedestrian safety and road network characteristics remains unknown. This study particularly focused on the role of different road network patterns on the occurrence of crashes involving pedestrians. A global integration index via space syntax was introduced to quantify the topological structures of road networks. The Bayesian Poisson-lognormal (PLN) models with conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior were then developed via three different proximity structures: contiguity, geometry-centroid distance, and road network connectivity. The models were also compared with the PLN counterpart without spatial correlation effects. The analysis was based on a comprehensive crash dataset from 131 selected traffic analysis zones in Hong Kong. The results indicated that higher global integration was associated with more pedestrian-vehicle crashes; the irregular pattern network was proved to be safest in terms of pedestrian crash occurrences, whereas the grid pattern was the least safe; the CAR model with a neighborhood structure based on road network connectivity was found to outperform in model goodness-of-fit, implying the importance of accurately accounting for spatial correlation when modeling spatially aggregated crash data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Bayesian spatial modelling and the significance of agricultural land use to scrub typhus infection in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardrop, Nicola A; Kuo, Chi-Chien; Wang, Hsi-Chieh; Clements, Archie C A; Lee, Pei-Fen; Atkinson, Peter M

    2013-11-01

    Scrub typhus is transmitted by the larval stage of trombiculid mites. Environmental factors, including land cover and land use, are known to influence breeding and survival of trombiculid mites and, thus, also the spatial heterogeneity of scrub typhus risk. Here, a spatially autoregressive modelling framework was applied to scrub typhus incidence data from Taiwan, covering the period 2003 to 2011, to provide increased understanding of the spatial pattern of scrub typhus risk and the environmental and socioeconomic factors contributing to this pattern. A clear spatial pattern in scrub typhus incidence was observed within Taiwan, and incidence was found to be significantly correlated with several land cover classes, temperature, elevation, normalized difference vegetation index, rainfall, population density, average income and the proportion of the population that work in agriculture. The final multivariate regression model included statistically significant correlations between scrub typhus incidence and average income (negatively correlated), the proportion of land that contained mosaics of cropland and vegetation (positively correlated) and elevation (positively correlated). These results highlight the importance of land cover on scrub typhus incidence: mosaics of cropland and vegetation represent a transitional land cover type which can provide favourable habitats for rodents and, therefore, trombiculid mites. In Taiwan, these transitional land cover areas tend to occur in less populated and mountainous areas, following the frontier establishment and subsequent partial abandonment of agricultural cultivation, due to demographic and socioeconomic changes. Future land use policy decision-making should ensure that potential public health outcomes, such as modified risk of scrub typhus, are considered.

  14. A Bayesian spatial assimilation scheme for snow coverage observations in a gridded snow model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kolberg

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available A method for assimilating remotely sensed snow covered area (SCA into the snow subroutine of a grid distributed precipitation-runoff model (PRM is presented. The PRM is assumed to simulate the snow state in each grid cell by a snow depletion curve (SDC, which relates that cell's SCA to its snow cover mass balance. The assimilation is based on Bayes' theorem, which requires a joint prior distribution of the SDC variables in all the grid cells. In this paper we propose a spatial model for this prior distribution, and include similarities and dependencies among the grid cells. Used to represent the PRM simulated snow cover state, our joint prior model regards two elevation gradients and a degree-day factor as global variables, rather than describing their effect separately for each cell. This transformation results in smooth normalised surfaces for the two related mass balance variables, supporting a strong inter-cell dependency in their joint prior model. The global features and spatial interdependency in the prior model cause each SCA observation to provide information for many grid cells. The spatial approach similarly facilitates the utilisation of observed discharge. Assimilation of SCA data using the proposed spatial model is evaluated in a 2400 km2 mountainous region in central Norway (61° N, 9° E, based on two Landsat 7 ETM+ images generalized to 1 km2 resolution. An image acquired on 11 May, a week before the peak flood, removes 78% of the variance in the remaining snow storage. Even an image from 4 May, less than a week after the melt onset, reduces this variance by 53%. These results are largely improved compared to a cell-by-cell independent assimilation routine previously reported. Including observed discharge in the updating information improves the 4 May results, but has weak effect on 11 May. Estimated elevation gradients are shown to be sensitive to informational deficits occurring at high altitude, where snowmelt has not started

  15. Bayesian spatial models of the association between interpersonal violence, animal abuse and social vulnerability in São Paulo, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baquero, Oswaldo Santos; Ferreira, Fernando; Robis, Marcelo; Neto, José Soares Ferreira; Onell, Jason Ardila

    2018-04-01

    Animal abuse adversely affects animal health and welfare and has been associated with interpersonal violence in studies of individuals. However, if that association also depends on sociocultural contexts and can be detected on a geographic scale, a wider source of data can be used to identify risk areas to support the surveillance of both types of violence. In this study, we evaluated the association between interpersonal violence notifications, animal abuse notifications and an index of social vulnerability in São Paulo City, on a geographic scale, using Bayesian spatial models. The social vulnerability index was a risk factor for the number of interpersonal violence notifications and presented a dose-response pattern. The number of animal abuse notifications was also a risk factor for the number of interpersonal violence notifications, even after controlling for the social vulnerability index. The incorporation of spatial effects produced marked improvements in model performance metrics and allowed the identification of excess risk clusters. Geographical data on notifications on either animal abuse or interpersonal violence should be considered incitement for investigations and interventions of both types of violence. We suggest that notifications of animal abuse be based on an explicit definition and classification, as well as on objective measurements that allow a better understanding of the species and type of abuse involved, the animal health consequences, and the context in which they occurred. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Spatial analysis and risk mapping of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Brazil, using Bayesian geostatistical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholte, Ronaldo G C; Schur, Nadine; Bavia, Maria E; Carvalho, Edgar M; Chammartin, Frédérique; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2013-11-01

    Soil-transmitted helminths (Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm) negatively impact the health and wellbeing of hundreds of millions of people, particularly in tropical and subtropical countries, including Brazil. Reliable maps of the spatial distribution and estimates of the number of infected people are required for the control and eventual elimination of soil-transmitted helminthiasis. We used advanced Bayesian geostatistical modelling, coupled with geographical information systems and remote sensing to visualize the distribution of the three soil-transmitted helminth species in Brazil. Remotely sensed climatic and environmental data, along with socioeconomic variables from readily available databases were employed as predictors. Our models provided mean prevalence estimates for A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura and hookworm of 15.6%, 10.1% and 2.5%, respectively. By considering infection risk and population numbers at the unit of the municipality, we estimate that 29.7 million Brazilians are infected with A. lumbricoides, 19.2 million with T. trichiura and 4.7 million with hookworm. Our model-based maps identified important risk factors related to the transmission of soiltransmitted helminths and confirm that environmental variables are closely associated with indices of poverty. Our smoothed risk maps, including uncertainty, highlight areas where soil-transmitted helminthiasis control interventions are most urgently required, namely in the North and along most of the coastal areas of Brazil. We believe that our predictive risk maps are useful for disease control managers for prioritising control interventions and for providing a tool for more efficient surveillance-response mechanisms.

  17. Association between the Density of Physicians and Suicide Rates in Japan: Nationwide Ecological Study Using a Spatial Bayesian Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hideaki Kawaguchi

    Full Text Available Regional disparity in suicide rates is a serious problem worldwide. One possible cause is unequal distribution of the health workforce, especially psychiatrists. Research about the association between regional physician numbers and suicide rates is therefore important but studies are rare. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between physician numbers and suicide rates in Japan, by municipality.The study included all the municipalities in Japan (n = 1,896. We estimated smoothed standardized mortality ratios of suicide rates for each municipality and evaluated the association between health workforce and suicide rates using a hierarchical Bayesian model accounting for spatially correlated random effects, a conditional autoregressive model. We assumed a Poisson distribution for the observed number of suicides and set the expected number of suicides as the offset variable. The explanatory variables were numbers of physicians, a binary variable for the presence of psychiatrists, and social covariates.After adjustment for socioeconomic factors, suicide rates in municipalities that had at least one psychiatrist were lower than those in the other municipalities. There was, however, a positive and statistically significant association between the number of physicians and suicide rates.Suicide rates in municipalities that had at least one psychiatrist were lower than those in other municipalities, but the number of physicians was positively and significantly related with suicide rates. To improve the regional disparity in suicide rates, the government should encourage psychiatrists to participate in community-based suicide prevention programs and to settle in municipalities that currently have no psychiatrists. The government and other stakeholders should also construct better networks between psychiatrists and non-psychiatrists to support sharing of information for suicide prevention.

  18. Association between the Density of Physicians and Suicide Rates in Japan: Nationwide Ecological Study Using a Spatial Bayesian Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawaguchi, Hideaki; Koike, Soichi

    2016-01-01

    Regional disparity in suicide rates is a serious problem worldwide. One possible cause is unequal distribution of the health workforce, especially psychiatrists. Research about the association between regional physician numbers and suicide rates is therefore important but studies are rare. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between physician numbers and suicide rates in Japan, by municipality. The study included all the municipalities in Japan (n = 1,896). We estimated smoothed standardized mortality ratios of suicide rates for each municipality and evaluated the association between health workforce and suicide rates using a hierarchical Bayesian model accounting for spatially correlated random effects, a conditional autoregressive model. We assumed a Poisson distribution for the observed number of suicides and set the expected number of suicides as the offset variable. The explanatory variables were numbers of physicians, a binary variable for the presence of psychiatrists, and social covariates. After adjustment for socioeconomic factors, suicide rates in municipalities that had at least one psychiatrist were lower than those in the other municipalities. There was, however, a positive and statistically significant association between the number of physicians and suicide rates. Suicide rates in municipalities that had at least one psychiatrist were lower than those in other municipalities, but the number of physicians was positively and significantly related with suicide rates. To improve the regional disparity in suicide rates, the government should encourage psychiatrists to participate in community-based suicide prevention programs and to settle in municipalities that currently have no psychiatrists. The government and other stakeholders should also construct better networks between psychiatrists and non-psychiatrists to support sharing of information for suicide prevention.

  19. Spatially explicit Schistosoma infection risk in eastern Africa using Bayesian geostatistical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie

    2013-01-01

    are currently infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. Country-specific population-adjusted prevalence estimates range between 12.9% (Uganda) and 34.5% (Mozambique) for S. mansoni and between 11.9% (Djibouti) and 40.9% (Mozambique) for S. haematobium. Our models revealed...

  20. Applied Bayesian modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Congdon, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and data analysis, with an emphasis on the interpretation of real data sets. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, this book aims to make a wide range of statistical modeling applications accessible using tested code that can be readily adapted to the reader's own applications. The second edition has been thoroughly reworked and updated to take account of advances in the field. A new set of worked examples is included. The novel aspect of the first edition was the coverage of statistical modeling using WinBU

  1. Bayesian nonparametric hierarchical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunson, David B

    2009-04-01

    In biomedical research, hierarchical models are very widely used to accommodate dependence in multivariate and longitudinal data and for borrowing of information across data from different sources. A primary concern in hierarchical modeling is sensitivity to parametric assumptions, such as linearity and normality of the random effects. Parametric assumptions on latent variable distributions can be challenging to check and are typically unwarranted, given available prior knowledge. This article reviews some recent developments in Bayesian nonparametric methods motivated by complex, multivariate and functional data collected in biomedical studies. The author provides a brief review of flexible parametric approaches relying on finite mixtures and latent class modeling. Dirichlet process mixture models are motivated by the need to generalize these approaches to avoid assuming a fixed finite number of classes. Focusing on an epidemiology application, the author illustrates the practical utility and potential of nonparametric Bayes methods.

  2. Spatial Patterns of Ischemic Heart Disease in Shenzhen, China: A Bayesian Multi-Disease Modelling Approach to Inform Health Planning Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingyun Du

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Incorporating the information of hypertension, this paper applies Bayesian multi-disease analysis to model the spatial patterns of Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD risks. Patterns of harmful alcohol intake (HAI and overweight/obesity are also modelled as they are common risk factors contributing to both IHD and hypertension. The hospitalization data of IHD and hypertension in 2012 were analyzed with three Bayesian multi-disease models at the sub-district level of Shenzhen. Results revealed that the IHD high-risk cluster shifted slightly north-eastward compared with the IHD Standardized Hospitalization Ratio (SHR. Spatial variations of overweight/obesity and HAI were found to contribute most to the IHD patterns. Identified patterns of IHD risk would benefit IHD integrated prevention. Spatial patterns of overweight/obesity and HAI could supplement the current disease surveillance system by providing information about small-area level risk factors, and thus benefit integrated prevention of related chronic diseases. Middle southern Shenzhen, where high risk of IHD, overweight/obesity, and HAI are present, should be prioritized for interventions, including alcohol control, innovative healthy diet toolkit distribution, insurance system revision, and community-based chronic disease intervention. Related health resource planning is also suggested to focus on these areas first.

  3. Spatial Patterns of Ischemic Heart Disease in Shenzhen, China: A Bayesian Multi-Disease Modelling Approach to Inform Health Planning Policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Qingyun; Zhang, Mingxiao; Li, Yayan; Luan, Hui; Liang, Shi; Ren, Fu

    2016-04-20

    Incorporating the information of hypertension, this paper applies Bayesian multi-disease analysis to model the spatial patterns of Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) risks. Patterns of harmful alcohol intake (HAI) and overweight/obesity are also modelled as they are common risk factors contributing to both IHD and hypertension. The hospitalization data of IHD and hypertension in 2012 were analyzed with three Bayesian multi-disease models at the sub-district level of Shenzhen. Results revealed that the IHD high-risk cluster shifted slightly north-eastward compared with the IHD Standardized Hospitalization Ratio (SHR). Spatial variations of overweight/obesity and HAI were found to contribute most to the IHD patterns. Identified patterns of IHD risk would benefit IHD integrated prevention. Spatial patterns of overweight/obesity and HAI could supplement the current disease surveillance system by providing information about small-area level risk factors, and thus benefit integrated prevention of related chronic diseases. Middle southern Shenzhen, where high risk of IHD, overweight/obesity, and HAI are present, should be prioritized for interventions, including alcohol control, innovative healthy diet toolkit distribution, insurance system revision, and community-based chronic disease intervention. Related health resource planning is also suggested to focus on these areas first.

  4. A BAYESIAN SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODELING APPROACH TO MAPPING GEOGRAPHIC VARIATION IN MORTALITY RATES FOR SUBNATIONAL AREAS WITH R-INLA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khana, Diba; Rossen, Lauren M; Hedegaard, Holly; Warner, Margaret

    2018-01-01

    Hierarchical Bayes models have been used in disease mapping to examine small scale geographic variation. State level geographic variation for less common causes of mortality outcomes have been reported however county level variation is rarely examined. Due to concerns about statistical reliability and confidentiality, county-level mortality rates based on fewer than 20 deaths are suppressed based on Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) statistical reliability criteria, precluding an examination of spatio-temporal variation in less common causes of mortality outcomes such as suicide rates (SRs) at the county level using direct estimates. Existing Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling strategies can be applied via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) in R to a large number of rare causes of mortality outcomes to enable examination of spatio-temporal variations on smaller geographic scales such as counties. This method allows examination of spatiotemporal variation across the entire U.S., even where the data are sparse. We used mortality data from 2005-2015 to explore spatiotemporal variation in SRs, as one particular application of the Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling strategy in R-INLA to predict year and county-specific SRs. Specifically, hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal models were implemented with spatially structured and unstructured random effects, correlated time effects, time varying confounders and space-time interaction terms in the software R-INLA, borrowing strength across both counties and years to produce smoothed county level SRs. Model-based estimates of SRs were mapped to explore geographic variation.

  5. A Bayesian Framework for Analysis of Pseudo-Spatial Models of Comparable Engineered Systems with Application to Spacecraft Anomaly Prediction Based on Precedent Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndu, Obibobi Kamtochukwu

    To ensure that estimates of risk and reliability inform design and resource allocation decisions in the development of complex engineering systems, early engagement in the design life cycle is necessary. An unfortunate constraint on the accuracy of such estimates at this stage of concept development is the limited amount of high fidelity design and failure information available on the actual system under development. Applying the human ability to learn from experience and augment our state of knowledge to evolve better solutions mitigates this limitation. However, the challenge lies in formalizing a methodology that takes this highly abstract, but fundamentally human cognitive, ability and extending it to the field of risk analysis while maintaining the tenets of generalization, Bayesian inference, and probabilistic risk analysis. We introduce an integrated framework for inferring the reliability, or other probabilistic measures of interest, of a new system or a conceptual variant of an existing system. Abstractly, our framework is based on learning from the performance of precedent designs and then applying the acquired knowledge, appropriately adjusted based on degree of relevance, to the inference process. This dissertation presents a method for inferring properties of the conceptual variant using a pseudo-spatial model that describes the spatial configuration of the family of systems to which the concept belongs. Through non-metric multidimensional scaling, we formulate the pseudo-spatial model based on rank-ordered subjective expert perception of design similarity between systems that elucidate the psychological space of the family. By a novel extension of Kriging methods for analysis of geospatial data to our "pseudo-space of comparable engineered systems", we develop a Bayesian inference model that allows prediction of the probabilistic measure of interest.

  6. Spatial Random Effects Survival Models to Assess Geographical Inequalities in Dengue Fever Using Bayesian Approach: a Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astuti Thamrin, Sri; Taufik, Irfan

    2018-03-01

    Dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) is an infectious disease caused by dengue virus. The increasing number of people with DHF disease correlates with the neighbourhood, for example sub-districts, and the characteristics of the sub-districts are formed from individuals who are domiciled in the sub-districts. Data containing individuals and sub-districts is a hierarchical data structure, called multilevel analysis. Frequently encountered response variable of the data is the time until an event occurs. Multilevel and spatial models are being increasingly used to obtain substantive information on area-level inequalities in DHF survival. Using a case study approach, we report on the implications of using multilevel with spatial survival models to study geographical inequalities in all cause survival.

  7. Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS

    CERN Document Server

    Ntzoufras, Ioannis

    2009-01-01

    A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...

  8. The Bayesian group lasso for confounded spatial data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Hanks, Ephraim M.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.

    2017-01-01

    Generalized linear mixed models for spatial processes are widely used in applied statistics. In many applications of the spatial generalized linear mixed model (SGLMM), the goal is to obtain inference about regression coefficients while achieving optimal predictive ability. When implementing the SGLMM, multicollinearity among covariates and the spatial random effects can make computation challenging and influence inference. We present a Bayesian group lasso prior with a single tuning parameter that can be chosen to optimize predictive ability of the SGLMM and jointly regularize the regression coefficients and spatial random effect. We implement the group lasso SGLMM using efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and demonstrate how multicollinearity among covariates and the spatial random effect can be monitored as a derived quantity. To test our method, we compared several parameterizations of the SGLMM using simulated data and two examples from plant ecology and disease ecology. In all examples, problematic levels multicollinearity occurred and influenced sampling efficiency and inference. We found that the group lasso prior resulted in roughly twice the effective sample size for MCMC samples of regression coefficients and can have higher and less variable predictive accuracy based on out-of-sample data when compared to the standard SGLMM.

  9. Evaluation of the spatial patterns and risk factors, including backyard pigs, for classical swine fever occurrence in Bulgaria using a Bayesian model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Martínez-López

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The spatial pattern and epidemiology of backyard pig farming and other low bio-security pig production systems and their role in the occurrence of classical swine fever (CSF is described and evaluated. A spatial Bayesian model was used to explore the risk factors, including human demographics, socioeconomic and environmental factors. The analyses were performed for Bulgaria, which has a large number of backyard farms (96% of all pig farms in the country are classified as backyard farms, and it is one of the countries for which both backyard pig and farm counts were available. Results reveal that the high-risk areas are typically concentrated in areas with small family farms, high numbers of outgoing pig shipments and low levels of personal consumption (i.e. economically deprived areas. Identification of risk factors and high-risk areas for CSF will allow to targeting risk-based surveillance strategies leading to prevention, control and, ultimately, elimination of the disease in Bulgaria and other countries with similar socio-epidemiological conditions.

  10. Spatial cluster modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Lawson, Andrew B

    2002-01-01

    Research has generated a number of advances in methods for spatial cluster modelling in recent years, particularly in the area of Bayesian cluster modelling. Along with these advances has come an explosion of interest in the potential applications of this work, especially in epidemiology and genome research. In one integrated volume, this book reviews the state-of-the-art in spatial clustering and spatial cluster modelling, bringing together research and applications previously scattered throughout the literature. It begins with an overview of the field, then presents a series of chapters that illuminate the nature and purpose of cluster modelling within different application areas, including astrophysics, epidemiology, ecology, and imaging. The focus then shifts to methods, with discussions on point and object process modelling, perfect sampling of cluster processes, partitioning in space and space-time, spatial and spatio-temporal process modelling, nonparametric methods for clustering, and spatio-temporal ...

  11. Relative accuracy of spatial predictive models for lynx Lynx canadensis derived using logistic regression-AIC, multiple criteria evaluation and Bayesian approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelley M. ALEXANDER

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available We compared probability surfaces derived using one set of environmental variables in three Geographic Information Systems (GIS-based approaches: logistic regression and Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC, Multiple Criteria Evaluation (MCE, and Bayesian Analysis (specifically Dempster-Shafer theory. We used lynx Lynx canadensis as our focal species, and developed our environment relationship model using track data collected in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada, during winters from 1997 to 2000. The accuracy of the three spatial models were compared using a contingency table method. We determined the percentage of cases in which both presence and absence points were correctly classified (overall accuracy, the failure to predict a species where it occurred (omission error and the prediction of presence where there was absence (commission error. Our overall accuracy showed the logistic regression approach was the most accurate (74.51%. The multiple criteria evaluation was intermediate (39.22%, while the Dempster-Shafer (D-S theory model was the poorest (29.90%. However, omission and commission error tell us a different story: logistic regression had the lowest commission error, while D-S theory produced the lowest omission error. Our results provide evidence that habitat modellers should evaluate all three error measures when ascribing confidence in their model. We suggest that for our study area at least, the logistic regression model is optimal. However, where sample size is small or the species is very rare, it may also be useful to explore and/or use a more ecologically cautious modelling approach (e.g. Dempster-Shafer that would over-predict, protect more sites, and thereby minimize the risk of missing critical habitat in conservation plans[Current Zoology 55(1: 28 – 40, 2009].

  12. How to practise Bayesian statistics outside the Bayesian church: What philosophy for Bayesian statistical modelling?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.

    2013-01-01

    Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science

  13. When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.

    2017-01-01

    Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

  14. Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

  15. A Bayesian model for binary Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belkheir Essebbar

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available This note is concerned with Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities of a binary Markov chain observed from heterogeneous individuals. The model is founded on the Jeffreys' prior which allows for transition probabilities to be correlated. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC techniques. The performance of the Bayesian estimates is illustrated by analyzing a small simulated data set.

  16. A Bayesian multidimensional scaling procedure for the spatial analysis of revealed choice data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    DeSarbo, WS; Kim, Y; Fong, D

    1999-01-01

    We present a new Bayesian formulation of a vector multidimensional scaling procedure for the spatial analysis of binary choice data. The Gibbs sampler is gainfully employed to estimate the posterior distribution of the specified scalar products, bilinear model parameters. The computational procedure

  17. A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buslik, A.

    1994-01-01

    A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given

  18. Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2013-01-01

    an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...

  19. Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists

    CERN Document Server

    Hobbs, N Thompson

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili

  20. Bayesian Modeling of a Human MMORPG Player

    Science.gov (United States)

    Synnaeve, Gabriel; Bessière, Pierre

    2011-03-01

    This paper describes an application of Bayesian programming to the control of an autonomous avatar in a multiplayer role-playing game (the example is based on World of Warcraft). We model a particular task, which consists of choosing what to do and to select which target in a situation where allies and foes are present. We explain the model in Bayesian programming and show how we could learn the conditional probabilities from data gathered during human-played sessions.

  1. Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 369, č. 1 (2016), s. 532-547 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Ideal distribution * Minimum cross-entropy principle * Bayesian conditioning * Kullback-Leibler divergence * Bayesian nonparametric modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.832, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/karny-0463052.pdf

  2. Bayesian spatial modeling applied to environmental monitoring due to the use of different drilling fluids in the maritime exploration activity; Modelagem espacial Bayesiana aplicada ao monitoramento ambiental decorrente do uso de diferentes fluidos de perfuracao na atividade exploratoria maritima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pulgati, Fernando H. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Lab. de Modelagem de Bacias (LAB2M); Zouain, Ricardo N.A. [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudos de Geologia Costeira e Oceanica; Fachel, Jandyra M.G. [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Inst. de Matematica; Landau, Luiz [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Lab. de Metodos Computacionais em Engenharia (LAMCE)

    2004-07-01

    Controlling and monitoring environmental researches have accompanied the development of offshore exploration drill activities aimed at finding oil and gas reserves, as there has been an increase in the environmental demands and restrictions. Three stages of the drilling process were isolated and the effects of different fluids were measured using Bayesian spatial models. The probable impact of the use of non-aqueous fluid (NAF) was measured through changes observed in sea sediments in three different occasions: previous to the activity, one (1) month after the end of the activity, and one (1) year after the end of the activity. BACI (Before-After Control Impact) design, which allows the control of temporal and spatial variation components, was chosen. (author)

  3. Modeling Non-Gaussian Time Series with Nonparametric Bayesian Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhiguang; MacEachern, Steven; Xu, Xinyi

    2015-02-01

    We present a class of Bayesian copula models whose major components are the marginal (limiting) distribution of a stationary time series and the internal dynamics of the series. We argue that these are the two features with which an analyst is typically most familiar, and hence that these are natural components with which to work. For the marginal distribution, we use a nonparametric Bayesian prior distribution along with a cdf-inverse cdf transformation to obtain large support. For the internal dynamics, we rely on the traditionally successful techniques of normal-theory time series. Coupling the two components gives us a family of (Gaussian) copula transformed autoregressive models. The models provide coherent adjustments of time scales and are compatible with many extensions, including changes in volatility of the series. We describe basic properties of the models, show their ability to recover non-Gaussian marginal distributions, and use a GARCH modification of the basic model to analyze stock index return series. The models are found to provide better fit and improved short-range and long-range predictions than Gaussian competitors. The models are extensible to a large variety of fields, including continuous time models, spatial models, models for multiple series, models driven by external covariate streams, and non-stationary models.

  4. Bayesian Inference of Ecological Interactions from Spatial Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher R. Stephens

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The characterization and quantification of ecological interactions and the construction of species’ distributions and their associated ecological niches are of fundamental theoretical and practical importance. In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian inference framework, which, using spatial data, offers a general formalism within which ecological interactions may be characterized and quantified. Interactions are identified through deviations of the spatial distribution of co-occurrences of spatial variables relative to a benchmark for the non-interacting system and based on a statistical ensemble of spatial cells. The formalism allows for the integration of both biotic and abiotic factors of arbitrary resolution. We concentrate on the conceptual and mathematical underpinnings of the formalism, showing how, using the naive Bayes approximation, it can be used to not only compare and contrast the relative contribution from each variable, but also to construct species’ distributions and ecological niches based on an arbitrary variable type. We also show how non-linear interactions between distinct niche variables can be identified and the degree of confounding between variables accounted for.

  5. Robust bayesian analysis of an autoregressive model with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this work, robust Bayesian analysis of the Bayesian estimation of an autoregressive model with exponential innovations is performed. Using a Bayesian robustness methodology, we show that, using a suitable generalized quadratic loss, we obtain optimal Bayesian estimators of the parameters corresponding to the ...

  6. Empirical Bayesian inference and model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poern, K.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a hierarchical or multistage empirical Bayesian approach for the estimation of uncertainty concerning the intensity of a homogeneous Poisson process. A class of contaminated gamma distributions is considered to describe the uncertainty concerning the intensity. These distributions in turn are defined through a set of secondary parameters, the knowledge of which is also described and updated via Bayes formula. This two-stage Bayesian approach is an example where the modeling uncertainty is treated in a comprehensive way. Each contaminated gamma distributions, represented by a point in the 3D space of secondary parameters, can be considered as a specific model of the uncertainty about the Poisson intensity. Then, by the empirical Bayesian method each individual model is assigned a posterior probability

  7. Nonparametric Bayesian models through probit stick-breaking processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Abel; Dunson, David B

    2011-03-01

    We describe a novel class of Bayesian nonparametric priors based on stick-breaking constructions where the weights of the process are constructed as probit transformations of normal random variables. We show that these priors are extremely flexible, allowing us to generate a great variety of models while preserving computational simplicity. Particular emphasis is placed on the construction of rich temporal and spatial processes, which are applied to two problems in finance and ecology.

  8. Bayesian uncertainty analyses of probabilistic risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.

    1989-01-01

    Applications of Bayesian principles to the uncertainty analyses are discussed in the paper. A short review of the most important uncertainties and their causes is provided. An application of the principle of maximum entropy to the determination of Bayesian prior distributions is described. An approach based on so called probabilistic structures is presented in order to develop a method of quantitative evaluation of modelling uncertainties. The method is applied to a small example case. Ideas for application areas for the proposed method are discussed

  9. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of North Atlantic windiness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanem, E.; Breivik, O. N.

    2013-03-01

    Extreme weather conditions represent serious natural hazards to ship operations and may be the direct cause or contributing factor to maritime accidents. Such severe environmental conditions can be taken into account in ship design and operational windows can be defined that limits hazardous operations to less extreme conditions. Nevertheless, possible changes in the statistics of extreme weather conditions, possibly due to anthropogenic climate change, represent an additional hazard to ship operations that is less straightforward to account for in a consistent way. Obviously, there are large uncertainties as to how future climate change will affect the extreme weather conditions at sea and there is a need for stochastic models that can describe the variability in both space and time at various scales of the environmental conditions. Previously, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models have been developed to describe the variability and complex dependence structures of significant wave height in space and time. These models were found to perform reasonably well and provided some interesting results, in particular, pertaining to long-term trends in the wave climate. In this paper, a similar framework is applied to oceanic windiness and the spatial and temporal variability of the 10-m wind speed over an area in the North Atlantic ocean is investigated. When the results from the model for North Atlantic windiness is compared to the results for significant wave height over the same area, it is interesting to observe that whereas an increasing trend in significant wave height was identified, no statistically significant long-term trend was estimated in windiness. This may indicate that the increase in significant wave height is not due to an increase in locally generated wind waves, but rather to increased swell. This observation is also consistent with studies that have suggested a poleward shift of the main storm tracks.

  10. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of North Atlantic windiness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Vanem

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions represent serious natural hazards to ship operations and may be the direct cause or contributing factor to maritime accidents. Such severe environmental conditions can be taken into account in ship design and operational windows can be defined that limits hazardous operations to less extreme conditions. Nevertheless, possible changes in the statistics of extreme weather conditions, possibly due to anthropogenic climate change, represent an additional hazard to ship operations that is less straightforward to account for in a consistent way. Obviously, there are large uncertainties as to how future climate change will affect the extreme weather conditions at sea and there is a need for stochastic models that can describe the variability in both space and time at various scales of the environmental conditions. Previously, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models have been developed to describe the variability and complex dependence structures of significant wave height in space and time. These models were found to perform reasonably well and provided some interesting results, in particular, pertaining to long-term trends in the wave climate. In this paper, a similar framework is applied to oceanic windiness and the spatial and temporal variability of the 10-m wind speed over an area in the North Atlantic ocean is investigated. When the results from the model for North Atlantic windiness is compared to the results for significant wave height over the same area, it is interesting to observe that whereas an increasing trend in significant wave height was identified, no statistically significant long-term trend was estimated in windiness. This may indicate that the increase in significant wave height is not due to an increase in locally generated wind waves, but rather to increased swell. This observation is also consistent with studies that have suggested a poleward shift of the main storm tracks.

  11. Hierarchical Bayesian Models of Subtask Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anglim, Jeromy; Wynton, Sarah K. A.

    2015-01-01

    The current study used Bayesian hierarchical methods to challenge and extend previous work on subtask learning consistency. A general model of individual-level subtask learning was proposed focusing on power and exponential functions with constraints to test for inconsistency. To study subtask learning, we developed a novel computer-based booking…

  12. Advances in Applications of Hierarchical Bayesian Methods with Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, R. B.; Schwarz, G. E.; Boyer, E. W.

    2017-12-01

    Mechanistic and empirical watershed models are increasingly used to inform water resource decisions. Growing access to historical stream measurements and data from in-situ sensor technologies has increased the need for improved techniques for coupling models with hydrological measurements. Techniques that account for the intrinsic uncertainties of both models and measurements are especially needed. Hierarchical Bayesian methods provide an efficient modeling tool for quantifying model and prediction uncertainties, including those associated with measurements. Hierarchical methods can also be used to explore spatial and temporal variations in model parameters and uncertainties that are informed by hydrological measurements. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to develop a hybrid (statistical-mechanistic) SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) model of long-term mean annual streamflow across diverse environmental and climatic drainages in 18 U.S. hydrological regions. Our application illustrates the use of a new generation of Bayesian methods that offer more advanced computational efficiencies than the prior generation. Evaluations of the effects of hierarchical (regional) variations in model coefficients and uncertainties on model accuracy indicates improved prediction accuracies (median of 10-50%) but primarily in humid eastern regions, where model uncertainties are one-third of those in arid western regions. Generally moderate regional variability is observed for most hierarchical coefficients. Accounting for measurement and structural uncertainties, using hierarchical state-space techniques, revealed the effects of spatially-heterogeneous, latent hydrological processes in the "localized" drainages between calibration sites; this improved model precision, with only minor changes in regional coefficients. Our study can inform advances in the use of hierarchical methods with hydrological models to improve their integration with stream

  13. Bayesian Modelling of Functional Whole Brain Connectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røge, Rasmus

    the prevalent strategy of standardizing of fMRI time series and model data using directional statistics or we model the variability in the signal across the brain and across multiple subjects. In either case, we use Bayesian nonparametric modeling to automatically learn from the fMRI data the number......This thesis deals with parcellation of whole-brain functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) using Bayesian inference with mixture models tailored to the fMRI data. In the three included papers and manuscripts, we analyze two different approaches to modeling fMRI signal; either we accept...... of funcional units, i.e. parcels. We benchmark the proposed mixture models against state of the art methods of brain parcellation, both probabilistic and non-probabilistic. The time series of each voxel are most often standardized using z-scoring which projects the time series data onto a hypersphere...

  14. Spatial Distribution of TDS in Drinking Water of Tehsil Jampur using Ordinary and Bayesian Kriging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maqsood Ahmad

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this research article, level of TDS in groundwater with spatial domain Tehsil Jampur, Pakistan is considered as response variable. Its enhanced level in drinking water produces both the human health concerns and aquatic ecological impacts. Its high value causes several diseases like bilestone, joints stiffness, obstruction of blood vessel and kidney stones. Some Geostatistical techniques were used to interpolate TDS at unmonitored locations of Tehsil Jampur. Four estimation techniques were comparatively studied for fitting well known matern spatial covariance models. Model based Ordinary Kriging (OK and Bayesian Kriging (BK were used for spatial interpolation at unmonitored locations. Cross validation statistic was used to select best interpolation technique with reduced RMSPE. Prediction maps were generated for visual presentation of interpolated sited for both techniques. This study revealed that among thirty observed locations, 56% water samples exceed the maximum permissible limit (1000g/ml of TDS as described by WHO

  15. Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neil, Martin; Tailor, Manesh; Marquez, David; Fenton, Norman; Hearty, Peter

    2008-01-01

    A hybrid Bayesian network (BN) is one that incorporates both discrete and continuous nodes. In our extensive applications of BNs for system dependability assessment, the models are invariably hybrid and the need for efficient and accurate computation is paramount. We apply a new iterative algorithm that efficiently combines dynamic discretisation with robust propagation algorithms on junction tree structures to perform inference in hybrid BNs. We illustrate its use in the field of dependability with two example of reliability estimation. Firstly we estimate the reliability of a simple single system and next we implement a hierarchical Bayesian model. In the hierarchical model we compute the reliability of two unknown subsystems from data collected on historically similar subsystems and then input the result into a reliability block model to compute system level reliability. We conclude that dynamic discretisation can be used as an alternative to analytical or Monte Carlo methods with high precision and can be applied to a wide range of dependability problems

  16. Constrained bayesian inference of project performance models

    OpenAIRE

    Sunmola, Funlade

    2013-01-01

    Project performance models play an important role in the management of project success. When used for monitoring projects, they can offer predictive ability such as indications of possible delivery problems. Approaches for monitoring project performance relies on available project information including restrictions imposed on the project, particularly the constraints of cost, quality, scope and time. We study in this paper a Bayesian inference methodology for project performance modelling in ...

  17. Bayesian geostatistical modeling of leishmaniasis incidence in Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitrios-Alexios Karagiannis-Voules

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Leishmaniasis is endemic in 98 countries with an estimated 350 million people at risk and approximately 2 million cases annually. Brazil is one of the most severely affected countries. METHODOLOGY: We applied Bayesian geostatistical negative binomial models to analyze reported incidence data of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil covering a 10-year period (2001-2010. Particular emphasis was placed on spatial and temporal patterns. The models were fitted using integrated nested Laplace approximations to perform fast approximate Bayesian inference. Bayesian variable selection was employed to determine the most important climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic predictors of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: For both types of leishmaniasis, precipitation and socioeconomic proxies were identified as important risk factors. The predicted number of cases in 2010 were 30,189 (standard deviation [SD]: 7,676 for cutaneous leishmaniasis and 4,889 (SD: 288 for visceral leishmaniasis. Our risk maps predicted the highest numbers of infected people in the states of Minas Gerais and Pará for visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our spatially explicit, high-resolution incidence maps identified priority areas where leishmaniasis control efforts should be targeted with the ultimate goal to reduce disease incidence.

  18. Bayesian methodology for reliability model acceptance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Ruoxue; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2003-01-01

    This paper develops a methodology to assess the reliability computation model validity using the concept of Bayesian hypothesis testing, by comparing the model prediction and experimental observation, when there is only one computational model available to evaluate system behavior. Time-independent and time-dependent problems are investigated, with consideration of both cases: with and without statistical uncertainty in the model. The case of time-independent failure probability prediction with no statistical uncertainty is a straightforward application of Bayesian hypothesis testing. However, for the life prediction (time-dependent reliability) problem, a new methodology is developed in this paper to make the same Bayesian hypothesis testing concept applicable. With the existence of statistical uncertainty in the model, in addition to the application of a predictor estimator of the Bayes factor, the uncertainty in the Bayes factor is explicitly quantified through treating it as a random variable and calculating the probability that it exceeds a specified value. The developed method provides a rational criterion to decision-makers for the acceptance or rejection of the computational model

  19. Bayesian network modelling of upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aisha, Nazziwa; Shohaimi, Shamarina; Adam, Mohd Bakri

    2013-09-01

    Bayesian networks are graphical probabilistic models that represent causal and other relationships between domain variables. In the context of medical decision making, these models have been explored to help in medical diagnosis and prognosis. In this paper, we discuss the Bayesian network formalism in building medical support systems and we learn a tree augmented naive Bayes Network (TAN) from gastrointestinal bleeding data. The accuracy of the TAN in classifying the source of gastrointestinal bleeding into upper or lower source is obtained. The TAN achieves a high classification accuracy of 86% and an area under curve of 92%. A sensitivity analysis of the model shows relatively high levels of entropy reduction for color of the stool, history of gastrointestinal bleeding, consistency and the ratio of blood urea nitrogen to creatinine. The TAN facilitates the identification of the source of GIB and requires further validation.

  20. Bayesian graphical models for genomewide association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verzilli, Claudio J; Stallard, Nigel; Whittaker, John C

    2006-07-01

    As the extent of human genetic variation becomes more fully characterized, the research community is faced with the challenging task of using this information to dissect the heritable components of complex traits. Genomewide association studies offer great promise in this respect, but their analysis poses formidable difficulties. In this article, we describe a computationally efficient approach to mining genotype-phenotype associations that scales to the size of the data sets currently being collected in such studies. We use discrete graphical models as a data-mining tool, searching for single- or multilocus patterns of association around a causative site. The approach is fully Bayesian, allowing us to incorporate prior knowledge on the spatial dependencies around each marker due to linkage disequilibrium, which reduces considerably the number of possible graphical structures. A Markov chain-Monte Carlo scheme is developed that yields samples from the posterior distribution of graphs conditional on the data from which probabilistic statements about the strength of any genotype-phenotype association can be made. Using data simulated under scenarios that vary in marker density, genotype relative risk of a causative allele, and mode of inheritance, we show that the proposed approach has better localization properties and leads to lower false-positive rates than do single-locus analyses. Finally, we present an application of our method to a quasi-synthetic data set in which data from the CYP2D6 region are embedded within simulated data on 100K single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Analysis is quick (<5 min), and we are able to localize the causative site to a very short interval.

  1. Diving into the consumer nutrition environment: A Bayesian spatial factor analysis of neighborhood restaurant environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luan, Hui; Law, Jane; Lysy, Martin

    2018-02-01

    Neighborhood restaurant environment (NRE) plays a vital role in shaping residents' eating behaviors. While NRE 'healthfulness' is a multi-facet concept, most studies evaluate it based only on restaurant type, thus largely ignoring variations of in-restaurant features. In the few studies that do account for such features, healthfulness scores are simply averaged over accessible restaurants, thereby concealing any uncertainty that attributed to neighborhoods' size or spatial correlation. To address these limitations, this paper presents a Bayesian Spatial Factor Analysis for assessing NRE healthfulness in the city of Kitchener, Canada. Several in-restaurant characteristics are included. By treating NRE healthfulness as a spatially correlated latent variable, the adopted modeling approach can: (i) identify specific indicators most relevant to NRE healthfulness, (ii) provide healthfulness estimates for neighborhoods without accessible restaurants, and (iii) readily quantify uncertainties in the healthfulness index. Implications of the analysis for intervention program development and community food planning are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Network structure exploration via Bayesian nonparametric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Y; Wang, X L; Xiang, X; Tang, B Z; Bu, J Z

    2015-01-01

    Complex networks provide a powerful mathematical representation of complex systems in nature and society. To understand complex networks, it is crucial to explore their internal structures, also called structural regularities. The task of network structure exploration is to determine how many groups there are in a complex network and how to group the nodes of the network. Most existing structure exploration methods need to specify either a group number or a certain type of structure when they are applied to a network. In the real world, however, the group number and also the certain type of structure that a network has are usually unknown in advance. To explore structural regularities in complex networks automatically, without any prior knowledge of the group number or the certain type of structure, we extend a probabilistic mixture model that can handle networks with any type of structure but needs to specify a group number using Bayesian nonparametric theory. We also propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric model, called the Bayesian nonparametric mixture (BNPM) model. Experiments conducted on a large number of networks with different structures show that the BNPM model is able to explore structural regularities in networks automatically with a stable, state-of-the-art performance. (paper)

  3. Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network for Language Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chien, Jen-Tzung; Ku, Yuan-Chu

    2016-02-01

    A language model (LM) is calculated as the probability of a word sequence that provides the solution to word prediction for a variety of information systems. A recurrent neural network (RNN) is powerful to learn the large-span dynamics of a word sequence in the continuous space. However, the training of the RNN-LM is an ill-posed problem because of too many parameters from a large dictionary size and a high-dimensional hidden layer. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to regularize the RNN-LM and apply it for continuous speech recognition. We aim to penalize the too complicated RNN-LM by compensating for the uncertainty of the estimated model parameters, which is represented by a Gaussian prior. The objective function in a Bayesian classification network is formed as the regularized cross-entropy error function. The regularized model is constructed not only by calculating the regularized parameters according to the maximum a posteriori criterion but also by estimating the Gaussian hyperparameter by maximizing the marginal likelihood. A rapid approximation to a Hessian matrix is developed to implement the Bayesian RNN-LM (BRNN-LM) by selecting a small set of salient outer-products. The proposed BRNN-LM achieves a sparser model than the RNN-LM. Experiments on different corpora show the robustness of system performance by applying the rapid BRNN-LM under different conditions.

  4. Centralized Bayesian reliability modelling with sensor networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dedecius, Kamil; Sečkárová, Vladimíra

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 5 (2013), s. 471-482 ISSN 1387-3954 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 7D12004 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) SVV-265315 Keywords : Bayesian modelling * Sensor network * Reliability Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 0.984, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/AS/dedecius-0392551.pdf

  5. Bayesian Inference of a Multivariate Regression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marick S. Sinay

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We explore Bayesian inference of a multivariate linear regression model with use of a flexible prior for the covariance structure. The commonly adopted Bayesian setup involves the conjugate prior, multivariate normal distribution for the regression coefficients and inverse Wishart specification for the covariance matrix. Here we depart from this approach and propose a novel Bayesian estimator for the covariance. A multivariate normal prior for the unique elements of the matrix logarithm of the covariance matrix is considered. Such structure allows for a richer class of prior distributions for the covariance, with respect to strength of beliefs in prior location hyperparameters, as well as the added ability, to model potential correlation amongst the covariance structure. The posterior moments of all relevant parameters of interest are calculated based upon numerical results via a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. The Metropolis-Hastings-within-Gibbs algorithm is invoked to account for the construction of a proposal density that closely matches the shape of the target posterior distribution. As an application of the proposed technique, we investigate a multiple regression based upon the 1980 High School and Beyond Survey.

  6. Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

    2017-01-01

    predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior...... and predictive inferences under different reasonable choices of prior distribution in sensitivity analysis have been presented....

  7. Bayesian Model Selection under Time Constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoege, M.; Nowak, W.; Illman, W. A.

    2017-12-01

    Bayesian model selection (BMS) provides a consistent framework for rating and comparing models in multi-model inference. In cases where models of vastly different complexity compete with each other, we also face vastly different computational runtimes of such models. For instance, time series of a quantity of interest can be simulated by an autoregressive process model that takes even less than a second for one run, or by a partial differential equations-based model with runtimes up to several hours or even days. The classical BMS is based on a quantity called Bayesian model evidence (BME). It determines the model weights in the selection process and resembles a trade-off between bias of a model and its complexity. However, in practice, the runtime of models is another weight relevant factor for model selection. Hence, we believe that it should be included, leading to an overall trade-off problem between bias, variance and computing effort. We approach this triple trade-off from the viewpoint of our ability to generate realizations of the models under a given computational budget. One way to obtain BME values is through sampling-based integration techniques. We argue with the fact that more expensive models can be sampled much less under time constraints than faster models (in straight proportion to their runtime). The computed evidence in favor of a more expensive model is statistically less significant than the evidence computed in favor of a faster model, since sampling-based strategies are always subject to statistical sampling error. We present a straightforward way to include this misbalance into the model weights that are the basis for model selection. Our approach follows directly from the idea of insufficient significance. It is based on a computationally cheap bootstrapping error estimate of model evidence and is easy to implement. The approach is illustrated in a small synthetic modeling study.

  8. Bayesian learning for spatial filtering in an EEG-based brain-computer interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haihong; Yang, Huijuan; Guan, Cuntai

    2013-07-01

    Spatial filtering for EEG feature extraction and classification is an important tool in brain-computer interface. However, there is generally no established theory that links spatial filtering directly to Bayes classification error. To address this issue, this paper proposes and studies a Bayesian analysis theory for spatial filtering in relation to Bayes error. Following the maximum entropy principle, we introduce a gamma probability model for describing single-trial EEG power features. We then formulate and analyze the theoretical relationship between Bayes classification error and the so-called Rayleigh quotient, which is a function of spatial filters and basically measures the ratio in power features between two classes. This paper also reports our extensive study that examines the theory and its use in classification, using three publicly available EEG data sets and state-of-the-art spatial filtering techniques and various classifiers. Specifically, we validate the positive relationship between Bayes error and Rayleigh quotient in real EEG power features. Finally, we demonstrate that the Bayes error can be practically reduced by applying a new spatial filter with lower Rayleigh quotient.

  9. Distributed Bayesian Networks for User Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tedesco, Roberto; Dolog, Peter; Nejdl, Wolfgang

    2006-01-01

    The World Wide Web is a popular platform for providing eLearning applications to a wide spectrum of users. However – as users differ in their preferences, background, requirements, and goals – applications should provide personalization mechanisms. In the Web context, user models used by such ada......The World Wide Web is a popular platform for providing eLearning applications to a wide spectrum of users. However – as users differ in their preferences, background, requirements, and goals – applications should provide personalization mechanisms. In the Web context, user models used...... by such adaptive applications are often partial fragments of an overall user model. The fragments have then to be collected and merged into a global user profile. In this paper we investigate and present algorithms able to cope with distributed, fragmented user models – based on Bayesian Networks – in the context...... of Web-based eLearning platforms. The scenario we are tackling assumes learners who use several systems over time, which are able to create partial Bayesian Networks for user models based on the local system context. In particular, we focus on how to merge these partial user models. Our merge mechanism...

  10. MEG source localization of spatially extended generators of epileptic activity: comparing entropic and hierarchical bayesian approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, Rasheda Arman; Lina, Jean Marc; Kobayashi, Eliane; Grova, Christophe

    2013-01-01

    Localizing the generators of epileptic activity in the brain using Electro-EncephaloGraphy (EEG) or Magneto-EncephaloGraphy (MEG) signals is of particular interest during the pre-surgical investigation of epilepsy. Epileptic discharges can be detectable from background brain activity, provided they are associated with spatially extended generators. Using realistic simulations of epileptic activity, this study evaluates the ability of distributed source localization methods to accurately estimate the location of the generators and their sensitivity to the spatial extent of such generators when using MEG data. Source localization methods based on two types of realistic models have been investigated: (i) brain activity may be modeled using cortical parcels and (ii) brain activity is assumed to be locally smooth within each parcel. A Data Driven Parcellization (DDP) method was used to segment the cortical surface into non-overlapping parcels and diffusion-based spatial priors were used to model local spatial smoothness within parcels. These models were implemented within the Maximum Entropy on the Mean (MEM) and the Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) source localization frameworks. We proposed new methods in this context and compared them with other standard ones using Monte Carlo simulations of realistic MEG data involving sources of several spatial extents and depths. Detection accuracy of each method was quantified using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis and localization error metrics. Our results showed that methods implemented within the MEM framework were sensitive to all spatial extents of the sources ranging from 3 cm(2) to 30 cm(2), whatever were the number and size of the parcels defining the model. To reach a similar level of accuracy within the HB framework, a model using parcels larger than the size of the sources should be considered.

  11. MEG source localization of spatially extended generators of epileptic activity: comparing entropic and hierarchical bayesian approaches.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasheda Arman Chowdhury

    Full Text Available Localizing the generators of epileptic activity in the brain using Electro-EncephaloGraphy (EEG or Magneto-EncephaloGraphy (MEG signals is of particular interest during the pre-surgical investigation of epilepsy. Epileptic discharges can be detectable from background brain activity, provided they are associated with spatially extended generators. Using realistic simulations of epileptic activity, this study evaluates the ability of distributed source localization methods to accurately estimate the location of the generators and their sensitivity to the spatial extent of such generators when using MEG data. Source localization methods based on two types of realistic models have been investigated: (i brain activity may be modeled using cortical parcels and (ii brain activity is assumed to be locally smooth within each parcel. A Data Driven Parcellization (DDP method was used to segment the cortical surface into non-overlapping parcels and diffusion-based spatial priors were used to model local spatial smoothness within parcels. These models were implemented within the Maximum Entropy on the Mean (MEM and the Hierarchical Bayesian (HB source localization frameworks. We proposed new methods in this context and compared them with other standard ones using Monte Carlo simulations of realistic MEG data involving sources of several spatial extents and depths. Detection accuracy of each method was quantified using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC analysis and localization error metrics. Our results showed that methods implemented within the MEM framework were sensitive to all spatial extents of the sources ranging from 3 cm(2 to 30 cm(2, whatever were the number and size of the parcels defining the model. To reach a similar level of accuracy within the HB framework, a model using parcels larger than the size of the sources should be considered.

  12. Sparse Event Modeling with Hierarchical Bayesian Kernel Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-05

    SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: The research objective of this proposal was to develop a predictive Bayesian kernel approach to model count data based on...several predictive variables. Such an approach, which we refer to as the Poisson Bayesian kernel model, is able to model the rate of occurrence of... kernel methods made use of: (i) the Bayesian property of improving predictive accuracy as data are dynamically obtained, and (ii) the kernel function

  13. A Bayesian method to mine spatial data sets to evaluate the vulnerability of human beings to catastrophic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lianfa; Wang, Jinfeng; Leung, Hareton; Zhao, Sisi

    2012-06-01

    Vulnerability of human beings exposed to a catastrophic disaster is affected by multiple factors that include hazard intensity, environment, and individual characteristics. The traditional approach to vulnerability assessment, based on the aggregate-area method and unsupervised learning, cannot incorporate spatial information; thus, vulnerability can be only roughly assessed. In this article, we propose Bayesian network (BN) and spatial analysis techniques to mine spatial data sets to evaluate the vulnerability of human beings. In our approach, spatial analysis is leveraged to preprocess the data; for example, kernel density analysis (KDA) and accumulative road cost surface modeling (ARCSM) are employed to quantify the influence of geofeatures on vulnerability and relate such influence to spatial distance. The knowledge- and data-based BN provides a consistent platform to integrate a variety of factors, including those extracted by KDA and ARCSM to model vulnerability uncertainty. We also consider the model's uncertainty and use the Bayesian model average and Occam's Window to average the multiple models obtained by our approach to robust prediction of the risk and vulnerability. We compare our approach with other probabilistic models in the case study of seismic risk and conclude that our approach is a good means to mining spatial data sets for evaluating vulnerability. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Spatial correlation in Bayesian logistic regression with misclassification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bihrmann, Kristine; Toft, Nils; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2014-01-01

    Standard logistic regression assumes that the outcome is measured perfectly. In practice, this is often not the case, which could lead to biased estimates if not accounted for. This study presents Bayesian logistic regression with adjustment for misclassification of the outcome applied to data...

  15. Adversarial life testing: A Bayesian negotiation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rufo, M.J.; Martín, J.; Pérez, C.J.

    2014-01-01

    Life testing is a procedure intended for facilitating the process of making decisions in the context of industrial reliability. On the other hand, negotiation is a process of making joint decisions that has one of its main foundations in decision theory. A Bayesian sequential model of negotiation in the context of adversarial life testing is proposed. This model considers a general setting for which a manufacturer offers a product batch to a consumer. It is assumed that the reliability of the product is measured in terms of its lifetime. Furthermore, both the manufacturer and the consumer have to use their own information with respect to the quality of the product. Under these assumptions, two situations can be analyzed. For both of them, the main aim is to accept or reject the product batch based on the product reliability. This topic is related to a reliability demonstration problem. The procedure is applied to a class of distributions that belong to the exponential family. Thus, a unified framework addressing the main topics in the considered Bayesian model is presented. An illustrative example shows that the proposed technique can be easily applied in practice

  16. Cholinergic stimulation enhances Bayesian belief updating in the deployment of spatial attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vossel, Simone; Bauer, Markus; Mathys, Christoph; Adams, Rick A; Dolan, Raymond J; Stephan, Klaas E; Friston, Karl J

    2014-11-19

    The exact mechanisms whereby the cholinergic neurotransmitter system contributes to attentional processing remain poorly understood. Here, we applied computational modeling to psychophysical data (obtained from a spatial attention task) under a psychopharmacological challenge with the cholinesterase inhibitor galantamine (Reminyl). This allowed us to characterize the cholinergic modulation of selective attention formally, in terms of hierarchical Bayesian inference. In a placebo-controlled, within-subject, crossover design, 16 healthy human subjects performed a modified version of Posner's location-cueing task in which the proportion of validly and invalidly cued targets (percentage of cue validity, % CV) changed over time. Saccadic response speeds were used to estimate the parameters of a hierarchical Bayesian model to test whether cholinergic stimulation affected the trial-wise updating of probabilistic beliefs that underlie the allocation of attention or whether galantamine changed the mapping from those beliefs to subsequent eye movements. Behaviorally, galantamine led to a greater influence of probabilistic context (% CV) on response speed than placebo. Crucially, computational modeling suggested this effect was due to an increase in the rate of belief updating about cue validity (as opposed to the increased sensitivity of behavioral responses to those beliefs). We discuss these findings with respect to cholinergic effects on hierarchical cortical processing and in relation to the encoding of expected uncertainty or precision. Copyright © 2014 the authors 0270-6474/14/3415735-08$15.00/0.

  17. Predicting coastal cliff erosion using a Bayesian probabilistic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Plant, Nathaniel G.

    2010-01-01

    Regional coastal cliff retreat is difficult to model due to the episodic nature of failures and the along-shore variability of retreat events. There is a growing demand, however, for predictive models that can be used to forecast areas vulnerable to coastal erosion hazards. Increasingly, probabilistic models are being employed that require data sets of high temporal density to define the joint probability density function that relates forcing variables (e.g. wave conditions) and initial conditions (e.g. cliff geometry) to erosion events. In this study we use a multi-parameter Bayesian network to investigate correlations between key variables that control and influence variations in cliff retreat processes. The network uses Bayesian statistical methods to estimate event probabilities using existing observations. Within this framework, we forecast the spatial distribution of cliff retreat along two stretches of cliffed coast in Southern California. The input parameters are the height and slope of the cliff, a descriptor of material strength based on the dominant cliff-forming lithology, and the long-term cliff erosion rate that represents prior behavior. The model is forced using predicted wave impact hours. Results demonstrate that the Bayesian approach is well-suited to the forward modeling of coastal cliff retreat, with the correct outcomes forecast in 70–90% of the modeled transects. The model also performs well in identifying specific locations of high cliff erosion, thus providing a foundation for hazard mapping. This approach can be employed to predict cliff erosion at time-scales ranging from storm events to the impacts of sea-level rise at the century-scale.

  18. Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

    2011-08-01

    The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls

  19. Merging Digital Surface Models Implementing Bayesian Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeq, H.; Drummond, J.; Li, Z.

    2016-06-01

    In this research different DSMs from different sources have been merged. The merging is based on a probabilistic model using a Bayesian Approach. The implemented data have been sourced from very high resolution satellite imagery sensors (e.g. WorldView-1 and Pleiades). It is deemed preferable to use a Bayesian Approach when the data obtained from the sensors are limited and it is difficult to obtain many measurements or it would be very costly, thus the problem of the lack of data can be solved by introducing a priori estimations of data. To infer the prior data, it is assumed that the roofs of the buildings are specified as smooth, and for that purpose local entropy has been implemented. In addition to the a priori estimations, GNSS RTK measurements have been collected in the field which are used as check points to assess the quality of the DSMs and to validate the merging result. The model has been applied in the West-End of Glasgow containing different kinds of buildings, such as flat roofed and hipped roofed buildings. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have been employed to validate the merged DSM. The validation results have shown that the model was successfully able to improve the quality of the DSMs and improving some characteristics such as the roof surfaces, which consequently led to better representations. In addition to that, the developed model has been compared with the well established Maximum Likelihood model and showed similar quantitative statistical results and better qualitative results. Although the proposed model has been applied on DSMs that were derived from satellite imagery, it can be applied to any other sourced DSMs.

  20. MERGING DIGITAL SURFACE MODELS IMPLEMENTING BAYESIAN APPROACHES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sadeq

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this research different DSMs from different sources have been merged. The merging is based on a probabilistic model using a Bayesian Approach. The implemented data have been sourced from very high resolution satellite imagery sensors (e.g. WorldView-1 and Pleiades. It is deemed preferable to use a Bayesian Approach when the data obtained from the sensors are limited and it is difficult to obtain many measurements or it would be very costly, thus the problem of the lack of data can be solved by introducing a priori estimations of data. To infer the prior data, it is assumed that the roofs of the buildings are specified as smooth, and for that purpose local entropy has been implemented. In addition to the a priori estimations, GNSS RTK measurements have been collected in the field which are used as check points to assess the quality of the DSMs and to validate the merging result. The model has been applied in the West-End of Glasgow containing different kinds of buildings, such as flat roofed and hipped roofed buildings. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have been employed to validate the merged DSM. The validation results have shown that the model was successfully able to improve the quality of the DSMs and improving some characteristics such as the roof surfaces, which consequently led to better representations. In addition to that, the developed model has been compared with the well established Maximum Likelihood model and showed similar quantitative statistical results and better qualitative results. Although the proposed model has been applied on DSMs that were derived from satellite imagery, it can be applied to any other sourced DSMs.

  1. Effect on Prediction when Modeling Covariates in Bayesian Nonparametric Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Rosner, Gary L; Müller, Peter; Stewart, Clinton F

    2013-04-01

    In biomedical research, it is often of interest to characterize biologic processes giving rise to observations and to make predictions of future observations. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide a means for carrying out Bayesian inference making as few assumptions about restrictive parametric models as possible. There are several proposals in the literature for extending Bayesian nonparametric models to include dependence on covariates. Limited attention, however, has been directed to the following two aspects. In this article, we examine the effect on fitting and predictive performance of incorporating covariates in a class of Bayesian nonparametric models by one of two primary ways: either in the weights or in the locations of a discrete random probability measure. We show that different strategies for incorporating continuous covariates in Bayesian nonparametric models can result in big differences when used for prediction, even though they lead to otherwise similar posterior inferences. When one needs the predictive density, as in optimal design, and this density is a mixture, it is better to make the weights depend on the covariates. We demonstrate these points via a simulated data example and in an application in which one wants to determine the optimal dose of an anticancer drug used in pediatric oncology.

  2. Learning Bayesian Dependence Model for Student Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina COCU

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Learning a Bayesian network from a numeric set of data is a challenging task because of dual nature of learning process: initial need to learn network structure, and then to find out the distribution probability tables. In this paper, we propose a machine-learning algorithm based on hill climbing search combined with Tabu list. The aim of learning process is to discover the best network that represents dependences between nodes. Another issue in machine learning procedure is handling numeric attributes. In order to do that, we must perform an attribute discretization pre-processes. This discretization operation can influence the results of learning network structure. Therefore, we make a comparative study to find out the most suitable combination between discretization method and learning algorithm, for a specific data set.

  3. Road network safety evaluation using Bayesian hierarchical joint model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Huang, Helai

    2016-05-01

    Safety and efficiency are commonly regarded as two significant performance indicators of transportation systems. In practice, road network planning has focused on road capacity and transport efficiency whereas the safety level of a road network has received little attention in the planning stage. This study develops a Bayesian hierarchical joint model for road network safety evaluation to help planners take traffic safety into account when planning a road network. The proposed model establishes relationships between road network risk and micro-level variables related to road entities and traffic volume, as well as socioeconomic, trip generation and network density variables at macro level which are generally used for long term transportation plans. In addition, network spatial correlation between intersections and their connected road segments is also considered in the model. A road network is elaborately selected in order to compare the proposed hierarchical joint model with a previous joint model and a negative binomial model. According to the results of the model comparison, the hierarchical joint model outperforms the joint model and negative binomial model in terms of the goodness-of-fit and predictive performance, which indicates the reasonableness of considering the hierarchical data structure in crash prediction and analysis. Moreover, both random effects at the TAZ level and the spatial correlation between intersections and their adjacent segments are found to be significant, supporting the employment of the hierarchical joint model as an alternative in road-network-level safety modeling as well. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Bayesian Spatial NBDA for Diffusion Data with Home-Base Coordinates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glenna F Nightingale

    Full Text Available Network-based diffusion analysis (NBDA is a statistical method that allows the researcher to identify and quantify a social influence on the spread of behaviour through a population. Hitherto, NBDA analyses have not directly modelled spatial population structure. Here we present a spatial extension of NBDA, applicable to diffusion data where the spatial locations of individuals in the population, or of their home bases or nest sites, are available. The method is based on the estimation of inter-individual associations (for association matrix construction from the mean inter-point distances as represented on a spatial point pattern of individuals, nests or home bases. We illustrate the method using a simulated dataset, and show how environmental covariates (such as that obtained from a satellite image, or from direct observations in the study area can also be included in the analysis. The analysis is conducted in a Bayesian framework, which has the advantage that prior knowledge of the rate at which the individuals acquire a given task can be incorporated into the analysis. This method is especially valuable for studies for which detailed spatially structured data, but no other association data, is available. Technological advances are making the collection of such data in the wild more feasible: for example, bio-logging facilitates the collection of a wide range of variables from animal populations in the wild. We provide an R package, spatialnbda, which is hosted on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN. This package facilitates the construction of association matrices with the spatial x and y coordinates as the input arguments, and spatial NBDA analyses.

  5. Efficient Bayesian network modeling of systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bensi, Michelle; Kiureghian, Armen Der; Straub, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    The Bayesian network (BN) is a convenient tool for probabilistic modeling of system performance, particularly when it is of interest to update the reliability of the system or its components in light of observed information. In this paper, BN structures for modeling the performance of systems that are defined in terms of their minimum link or cut sets are investigated. Standard BN structures that define the system node as a child of its constituent components or its minimum link/cut sets lead to converging structures, which are computationally disadvantageous and could severely hamper application of the BN to real systems. A systematic approach to defining an alternative formulation is developed that creates chain-like BN structures that are orders of magnitude more efficient, particularly in terms of computational memory demand. The formulation uses an integer optimization algorithm to identify the most efficient BN structure. Example applications demonstrate the proposed methodology and quantify the gained computational advantage

  6. Modeling Land-Use Decision Behavior with Bayesian Belief Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inge Aalders

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability to incorporate and manage the different drivers of land-use change in a modeling process is one of the key challenges because they are complex and are both quantitative and qualitative in nature. This paper uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN to incorporate characteristics of land managers in the modeling process and to enhance our understanding of land-use change based on the limited and disparate sources of information. One of the two models based on spatial data represented land managers in the form of a quantitative variable, the area of individual holdings, whereas the other model included qualitative data from a survey of land managers. Random samples from the spatial data provided evidence of the relationship between the different variables, which I used to develop the BBN structure. The model was tested for four different posterior probability distributions, and results showed that the trained and learned models are better at predicting land use than the uniform and random models. The inference from the model demonstrated the constraints that biophysical characteristics impose on land managers; for older land managers without heirs, there is a higher probability of the land use being arable agriculture. The results show the benefits of incorporating a more complex notion of land managers in land-use models, and of using different empirical data sources in the modeling process. Future research should focus on incorporating more complex social processes into the modeling structure, as well as incorporating spatio-temporal dynamics in a BBN.

  7. Statistical modelling of railway track geometry degradation using Hierarchical Bayesian models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrade, A.R.; Teixeira, P.F.

    2015-01-01

    Railway maintenance planners require a predictive model that can assess the railway track geometry degradation. The present paper uses a Hierarchical Bayesian model as a tool to model the main two quality indicators related to railway track geometry degradation: the standard deviation of longitudinal level defects and the standard deviation of horizontal alignment defects. Hierarchical Bayesian Models (HBM) are flexible statistical models that allow specifying different spatially correlated components between consecutive track sections, namely for the deterioration rates and the initial qualities parameters. HBM are developed for both quality indicators, conducting an extensive comparison between candidate models and a sensitivity analysis on prior distributions. HBM is applied to provide an overall assessment of the degradation of railway track geometry, for the main Portuguese railway line Lisbon–Oporto. - Highlights: • Rail track geometry degradation is analysed using Hierarchical Bayesian models. • A Gibbs sampling strategy is put forward to estimate the HBM. • Model comparison and sensitivity analysis find the most suitable model. • We applied the most suitable model to all the segments of the main Portuguese line. • Tackling spatial correlations using CAR structures lead to a better model fit

  8. Model parameter updating using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Treml, C.A.; Ross, Timothy J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper outlines a model parameter updating technique for a new method of model validation using a modified model reference adaptive control (MRAC) framework with Bayesian Networks (BNs). The model parameter updating within this method is generic in the sense that the model/simulation to be validated is treated as a black box. It must have updateable parameters to which its outputs are sensitive, and those outputs must have metrics that can be compared to that of the model reference, i.e., experimental data. Furthermore, no assumptions are made about the statistics of the model parameter uncertainty, only upper and lower bounds need to be specified. This method is designed for situations where a model is not intended to predict a complete point-by-point time domain description of the item/system behavior; rather, there are specific points, features, or events of interest that need to be predicted. These specific points are compared to the model reference derived from actual experimental data. The logic for updating the model parameters to match the model reference is formed via a BN. The nodes of this BN consist of updateable model input parameters and the specific output values or features of interest. Each time the model is executed, the input/output pairs are used to adapt the conditional probabilities of the BN. Each iteration further refines the inferred model parameters to produce the desired model output. After parameter updating is complete and model inputs are inferred, reliabilities for the model output are supplied. Finally, this method is applied to a simulation of a resonance control cooling system for a prototype coupled cavity linac. The results are compared to experimental data.

  9. Area-to-Area Poisson Kriging and Spatial Bayesian Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asmarian, Naeimehossadat; Jafari-Koshki, Tohid; Soleimani, Ali; Taghi Ayatollahi, Seyyed Mohammad

    2016-10-01

    Background: In many countries gastric cancer has the highest incidence among the gastrointestinal cancers and is the second most common cancer in Iran. The aim of this study was to identify and map high risk gastric cancer regions at the county-level in Iran. Methods: In this study we analyzed gastric cancer data for Iran in the years 2003-2010. Areato- area Poisson kriging and Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) spatial models were applied to smoothing the standardized incidence ratios of gastric cancer for the 373 counties surveyed in this study. The two methods were compared in term of accuracy and precision in identifying high risk regions. Result: The highest smoothed standardized incidence rate (SIR) according to area-to-area Poisson kriging was in Meshkinshahr county in Ardabil province in north-western Iran (2.4,SD=0.05), while the highest smoothed standardized incidence rate (SIR) according to the BYM model was in Ardabil, the capital of that province (2.9,SD=0.09). Conclusion: Both methods of mapping, ATA Poisson kriging and BYM, showed the gastric cancer incidence rate to be highest in north and north-west Iran. However, area-to-area Poisson kriging was more precise than the BYM model and required less smoothing. According to the results obtained, preventive measures and treatment programs should be focused on particular counties of Iran. Creative Commons Attribution License

  10. Item selection via Bayesian IRT models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arima, Serena

    2015-02-10

    With reference to a questionnaire that aimed to assess the quality of life for dysarthric speakers, we investigate the usefulness of a model-based procedure for reducing the number of items. We propose a mixed cumulative logit model, which is known in the psychometrics literature as the graded response model: responses to different items are modelled as a function of individual latent traits and as a function of item characteristics, such as their difficulty and their discrimination power. We jointly model the discrimination and the difficulty parameters by using a k-component mixture of normal distributions. Mixture components correspond to disjoint groups of items. Items that belong to the same groups can be considered equivalent in terms of both difficulty and discrimination power. According to decision criteria, we select a subset of items such that the reduced questionnaire is able to provide the same information that the complete questionnaire provides. The model is estimated by using a Bayesian approach, and the choice of the number of mixture components is justified according to information criteria. We illustrate the proposed approach on the basis of data that are collected for 104 dysarthric patients by local health authorities in Lecce and in Milan. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Advances in Bayesian Modeling in Educational Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Roy

    2016-01-01

    In this article, I provide a conceptually oriented overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference and contrast them with frequentist approaches that currently dominate conventional practice in educational research. The features and advantages of Bayesian approaches are illustrated with examples spanning several statistical modeling…

  12. Bayesian modeling of recombination events in bacterial populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dowson Chris

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We consider the discovery of recombinant segments jointly with their origins within multilocus DNA sequences from bacteria representing heterogeneous populations of fairly closely related species. The currently available methods for recombination detection capable of probabilistic characterization of uncertainty have a limited applicability in practice as the number of strains in a data set increases. Results We introduce a Bayesian spatial structural model representing the continuum of origins over sites within the observed sequences, including a probabilistic characterization of uncertainty related to the origin of any particular site. To enable a statistically accurate and practically feasible approach to the analysis of large-scale data sets representing a single genus, we have developed a novel software tool (BRAT, Bayesian Recombination Tracker implementing the model and the corresponding learning algorithm, which is capable of identifying the posterior optimal structure and to estimate the marginal posterior probabilities of putative origins over the sites. Conclusion A multitude of challenging simulation scenarios and an analysis of real data from seven housekeeping genes of 120 strains of genus Burkholderia are used to illustrate the possibilities offered by our approach. The software is freely available for download at URL http://web.abo.fi/fak/mnf//mate/jc/software/brat.html.

  13. Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

    2016-04-01

    This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

  14. Temporal and spatial variabilities of Antarctic ice mass changes inferred by GRACE in a Bayesian framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L.; Davis, J. L.; Tamisiea, M. E.

    2017-12-01

    The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) holds about 60% of all fresh water on the Earth, an amount equivalent to about 58 m of sea-level rise. Observation of AIS mass change is thus essential in determining and predicting its contribution to sea level. While the ice mass loss estimates for West Antarctica (WA) and the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) are in good agreement, what the mass balance over East Antarctica (EA) is, and whether or not it compensates for the mass loss is under debate. Besides the different error sources and sensitivities of different measurement types, complex spatial and temporal variabilities would be another factor complicating the accurate estimation of the AIS mass balance. Therefore, a model that allows for variabilities in both melting rate and seasonal signals would seem appropriate in the estimation of present-day AIS melting. We present a stochastic filter technique, which enables the Bayesian separation of the systematic stripe noise and mass signal in decade-length GRACE monthly gravity series, and allows the estimation of time-variable seasonal and inter-annual components in the signals. One of the primary advantages of this Bayesian method is that it yields statistically rigorous uncertainty estimates reflecting the inherent spatial resolution of the data. By applying the stochastic filter to the decade-long GRACE observations, we present the temporal variabilities of the AIS mass balance at basin scale, particularly over East Antarctica, and decipher the EA mass variations in the past decade, and their role in affecting overall AIS mass balance and sea level.

  15. Bayesian inference of chemical kinetic models from proposed reactions

    KAUST Repository

    Galagali, Nikhil; Marzouk, Youssef M.

    2015-01-01

    © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. Bayesian inference provides a natural framework for combining experimental data with prior knowledge to develop chemical kinetic models and quantify the associated uncertainties, not only in parameter values but also in model

  16. Constructive Epistemic Modeling: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, F. T. C.; Elshall, A. S.

    2014-12-01

    Constructive epistemic modeling is the idea that our understanding of a natural system through a scientific model is a mental construct that continually develops through learning about and from the model. Using the hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method [1], this study shows that segregating different uncertain model components through a BMA tree of posterior model probabilities, model prediction, within-model variance, between-model variance and total model variance serves as a learning tool [2]. First, the BMA tree of posterior model probabilities permits the comparative evaluation of the candidate propositions of each uncertain model component. Second, systemic model dissection is imperative for understanding the individual contribution of each uncertain model component to the model prediction and variance. Third, the hierarchical representation of the between-model variance facilitates the prioritization of the contribution of each uncertain model component to the overall model uncertainty. We illustrate these concepts using the groundwater modeling of a siliciclastic aquifer-fault system. The sources of uncertainty considered are from geological architecture, formation dip, boundary conditions and model parameters. The study shows that the HBMA analysis helps in advancing knowledge about the model rather than forcing the model to fit a particularly understanding or merely averaging several candidate models. [1] Tsai, F. T.-C., and A. S. Elshall (2013), Hierarchical Bayesian model averaging for hydrostratigraphic modeling: Uncertainty segregation and comparative evaluation. Water Resources Research, 49, 5520-5536, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20428. [2] Elshall, A.S., and F. T.-C. Tsai (2014). Constructive epistemic modeling of groundwater flow with geological architecture and boundary condition uncertainty under Bayesian paradigm, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 105-119, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.027.

  17. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  18. Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broccardo, M.; Mignan, A.; Wiemer, S.; Stojadinovic, B.; Giardini, D.

    2017-11-01

    In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected fluid. The fluid-induced seismicity rate model depends upon a set of physically meaningful parameters and has been validated for six fluid-induced case studies. In line with the vision of hierarchical Bayesian modeling, the rate parameters are considered as random variables. We develop both the Bayesian inference and updating rules, which are used to develop a probabilistic forecasting model. We tested the Basel 2006 fluid-induced seismic case study to prove that the hierarchical Bayesian model offers a suitable framework to coherently encode both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability. Moreover, it provides a robust and consistent short-term seismic forecasting model suitable for online risk quantification and mitigation.

  19. Bayesian Networks for Modeling Dredging Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-01

    years, that algorithms have been developed to solve these problems efficiently. Most modern Bayesian network software uses junction tree (a.k.a. join... software was used to develop the network . This is by no means an exhaustive list of Bayesian network applications, but it is representative of recent...characteristic node (SCN), state- defining node ( SDN ), effect node (EFN), or value node. The five types of nodes can be described as follows: ERDC/EL TR-11

  20. Bayesian Modeling of ChIP-chip Data Through a High-Order Ising Model

    KAUST Repository

    Mo, Qianxing

    2010-01-29

    ChIP-chip experiments are procedures that combine chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) and DNA microarray (chip) technology to study a variety of biological problems, including protein-DNA interaction, histone modification, and DNA methylation. The most important feature of ChIP-chip data is that the intensity measurements of probes are spatially correlated because the DNA fragments are hybridized to neighboring probes in the experiments. We propose a simple, but powerful Bayesian hierarchical approach to ChIP-chip data through an Ising model with high-order interactions. The proposed method naturally takes into account the intrinsic spatial structure of the data and can be used to analyze data from multiple platforms with different genomic resolutions. The model parameters are estimated using the Gibbs sampler. The proposed method is illustrated using two publicly available data sets from Affymetrix and Agilent platforms, and compared with three alternative Bayesian methods, namely, Bayesian hierarchical model, hierarchical gamma mixture model, and Tilemap hidden Markov model. The numerical results indicate that the proposed method performs as well as the other three methods for the data from Affymetrix tiling arrays, but significantly outperforms the other three methods for the data from Agilent promoter arrays. In addition, we find that the proposed method has better operating characteristics in terms of sensitivities and false discovery rates under various scenarios. © 2010, The International Biometric Society.

  1. A Bayesian framework based on a Gaussian mixture model and radial-basis-function Fisher discriminant analysis (BayGmmKda V1.1) for spatial prediction of floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tien Bui, Dieu; Hoang, Nhat-Duc

    2017-09-01

    In this study, a probabilistic model, named as BayGmmKda, is proposed for flood susceptibility assessment in a study area in central Vietnam. The new model is a Bayesian framework constructed by a combination of a Gaussian mixture model (GMM), radial-basis-function Fisher discriminant analysis (RBFDA), and a geographic information system (GIS) database. In the Bayesian framework, GMM is used for modeling the data distribution of flood-influencing factors in the GIS database, whereas RBFDA is utilized to construct a latent variable that aims at enhancing the model performance. As a result, the posterior probabilistic output of the BayGmmKda model is used as flood susceptibility index. Experiment results showed that the proposed hybrid framework is superior to other benchmark models, including the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and the support vector machine. To facilitate the model implementation, a software program of BayGmmKda has been developed in MATLAB. The BayGmmKda program can accurately establish a flood susceptibility map for the study region. Accordingly, local authorities can overlay this susceptibility map onto various land-use maps for the purpose of land-use planning or management.

  2. A Bayesian framework based on a Gaussian mixture model and radial-basis-function Fisher discriminant analysis (BayGmmKda V1.1 for spatial prediction of floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Tien Bui

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a probabilistic model, named as BayGmmKda, is proposed for flood susceptibility assessment in a study area in central Vietnam. The new model is a Bayesian framework constructed by a combination of a Gaussian mixture model (GMM, radial-basis-function Fisher discriminant analysis (RBFDA, and a geographic information system (GIS database. In the Bayesian framework, GMM is used for modeling the data distribution of flood-influencing factors in the GIS database, whereas RBFDA is utilized to construct a latent variable that aims at enhancing the model performance. As a result, the posterior probabilistic output of the BayGmmKda model is used as flood susceptibility index. Experiment results showed that the proposed hybrid framework is superior to other benchmark models, including the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and the support vector machine. To facilitate the model implementation, a software program of BayGmmKda has been developed in MATLAB. The BayGmmKda program can accurately establish a flood susceptibility map for the study region. Accordingly, local authorities can overlay this susceptibility map onto various land-use maps for the purpose of land-use planning or management.

  3. Fast model updating coupling Bayesian inference and PGD model reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubio, Paul-Baptiste; Louf, François; Chamoin, Ludovic

    2018-04-01

    The paper focuses on a coupled Bayesian-Proper Generalized Decomposition (PGD) approach for the real-time identification and updating of numerical models. The purpose is to use the most general case of Bayesian inference theory in order to address inverse problems and to deal with different sources of uncertainties (measurement and model errors, stochastic parameters). In order to do so with a reasonable CPU cost, the idea is to replace the direct model called for Monte-Carlo sampling by a PGD reduced model, and in some cases directly compute the probability density functions from the obtained analytical formulation. This procedure is first applied to a welding control example with the updating of a deterministic parameter. In the second application, the identification of a stochastic parameter is studied through a glued assembly example.

  4. A Bayesian Approach for Structural Learning with Hidden Markov Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cen Li

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Hidden Markov Models(HMM have proved to be a successful modeling paradigm for dynamic and spatial processes in many domains, such as speech recognition, genomics, and general sequence alignment. Typically, in these applications, the model structures are predefined by domain experts. Therefore, the HMM learning problem focuses on the learning of the parameter values of the model to fit the given data sequences. However, when one considers other domains, such as, economics and physiology, model structure capturing the system dynamic behavior is not available. In order to successfully apply the HMM methodology in these domains, it is important that a mechanism is available for automatically deriving the model structure from the data. This paper presents a HMM learning procedure that simultaneously learns the model structure and the maximum likelihood parameter values of a HMM from data. The HMM model structures are derived based on the Bayesian model selection methodology. In addition, we introduce a new initialization procedure for HMM parameter value estimation based on the K-means clustering method. Experimental results with artificially generated data show the effectiveness of the approach.

  5. Covariance approximation for large multivariate spatial data sets with an application to multiple climate model errors

    KAUST Repository

    Sang, Huiyan; Jun, Mikyoung; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates the cross-correlations across multiple climate model errors. We build a Bayesian hierarchical model that accounts for the spatial dependence of individual models as well as cross-covariances across different climate models

  6. Model-based Bayesian signal extraction algorithm for peripheral nerves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggers, Thomas E.; Dweiri, Yazan M.; McCallum, Grant A.; Durand, Dominique M.

    2017-10-01

    Objective. Multi-channel cuff electrodes have recently been investigated for extracting fascicular-level motor commands from mixed neural recordings. Such signals could provide volitional, intuitive control over a robotic prosthesis for amputee patients. Recent work has demonstrated success in extracting these signals in acute and chronic preparations using spatial filtering techniques. These extracted signals, however, had low signal-to-noise ratios and thus limited their utility to binary classification. In this work a new algorithm is proposed which combines previous source localization approaches to create a model based method which operates in real time. Approach. To validate this algorithm, a saline benchtop setup was created to allow the precise placement of artificial sources within a cuff and interference sources outside the cuff. The artificial source was taken from five seconds of chronic neural activity to replicate realistic recordings. The proposed algorithm, hybrid Bayesian signal extraction (HBSE), is then compared to previous algorithms, beamforming and a Bayesian spatial filtering method, on this test data. An example chronic neural recording is also analyzed with all three algorithms. Main results. The proposed algorithm improved the signal to noise and signal to interference ratio of extracted test signals two to three fold, as well as increased the correlation coefficient between the original and recovered signals by 10-20%. These improvements translated to the chronic recording example and increased the calculated bit rate between the recovered signals and the recorded motor activity. Significance. HBSE significantly outperforms previous algorithms in extracting realistic neural signals, even in the presence of external noise sources. These results demonstrate the feasibility of extracting dynamic motor signals from a multi-fascicled intact nerve trunk, which in turn could extract motor command signals from an amputee for the end goal of

  7. Flexible Bayesian Dynamic Modeling of Covariance and Correlation Matrices

    KAUST Repository

    Lan, Shiwei; Holbrook, Andrew; Fortin, Norbert J.; Ombao, Hernando; Shahbaba, Babak

    2017-01-01

    Modeling covariance (and correlation) matrices is a challenging problem due to the large dimensionality and positive-definiteness constraint. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian framework based on decomposing the covariance matrix

  8. Bayesian network modeling of operator's state recognition process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatakeyama, Naoki; Furuta, Kazuo

    2000-01-01

    Nowadays we are facing a difficult problem of establishing a good relation between humans and machines. To solve this problem, we suppose that machine system need to have a model of human behavior. In this study we model the state cognition process of a PWR plant operator as an example. We use a Bayesian network as an inference engine. We incorporate the knowledge hierarchy in the Bayesian network and confirm its validity using the example of PWR plant operator. (author)

  9. Experiences in applying Bayesian integrative models in interdisciplinary modeling: the computational and human challenges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuikka, Sakari; Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet; Helle, Inari

    2011-01-01

    We review the experience obtained in using integrative Bayesian models in interdisciplinary analysis focusing on sustainable use of marine resources and environmental management tasks. We have applied Bayesian models to both fisheries and environmental risk analysis problems. Bayesian belief...... be time consuming and research projects can be difficult to manage due to unpredictable technical problems related to parameter estimation. Biology, sociology and environmental economics have their own scientific traditions. Bayesian models are becoming traditional tools in fisheries biology, where...

  10. Assessing Local Model Adequacy in Bayesian Hierarchical Models Using the Partitioned Deviance Information Criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, David C.; Hickson, DeMarc A.; Waller, Lance A.

    2010-01-01

    Many diagnostic tools and goodness-of-fit measures, such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian deviance information criterion (DIC), are available to evaluate the overall adequacy of linear regression models. In addition, visually assessing adequacy in models has become an essential part of any regression analysis. In this paper, we focus on a spatial consideration of the local DIC measure for model selection and goodness-of-fit evaluation. We use a partitioning of the DIC into the local DIC, leverage, and deviance residuals to assess local model fit and influence for both individual observations and groups of observations in a Bayesian framework. We use visualization of the local DIC and differences in local DIC between models to assist in model selection and to visualize the global and local impacts of adding covariates or model parameters. We demonstrate the utility of the local DIC in assessing model adequacy using HIV prevalence data from pregnant women in the Butare province of Rwanda during 1989-1993 using a range of linear model specifications, from global effects only to spatially varying coefficient models, and a set of covariates related to sexual behavior. Results of applying the diagnostic visualization approach include more refined model selection and greater understanding of the models as applied to the data. PMID:21243121

  11. Bayesian mixture models for source separation in MEG

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvetti, Daniela; Homa, Laura; Somersalo, Erkki

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the problem of imaging electromagnetic brain activity from measurements of the induced magnetic field outside the head. This imaging modality, magnetoencephalography (MEG), is known to be severely ill posed, and in order to obtain useful estimates for the activity map, complementary information needs to be used to regularize the problem. In this paper, a particular emphasis is on finding non-superficial focal sources that induce a magnetic field that may be confused with noise due to external sources and with distributed brain noise. The data are assumed to come from a mixture of a focal source and a spatially distributed possibly virtual source; hence, to differentiate between those two components, the problem is solved within a Bayesian framework, with a mixture model prior encoding the information that different sources may be concurrently active. The mixture model prior combines one density that favors strongly focal sources and another that favors spatially distributed sources, interpreted as clutter in the source estimation. Furthermore, to address the challenge of localizing deep focal sources, a novel depth sounding algorithm is suggested, and it is shown with simulated data that the method is able to distinguish between a signal arising from a deep focal source and a clutter signal. (paper)

  12. Bayesian analysis of spatial point processes in the neighbourhood of Voronoi networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skare, Øivind; Møller, Jesper; Jensen, Eva Bjørn Vedel

    2007-01-01

    A model for an inhomogeneous Poisson process with high intensity near the edges of a Voronoi tessellation in 2D or 3D is proposed. The model is analysed in a Bayesian setting with priors on nuclei of the Voronoi tessellation and other model parameters. An MCMC algorithm is constructed to sample...

  13. Bayesian analysis of spatial point processes in the neighbourhood of Voronoi networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skare, Øivind; Møller, Jesper; Vedel Jensen, Eva B.

    A model for an inhomogeneous Poisson process with high intensity near the edges of a Voronoi tessellation in 2D or 3D is proposed. The model is analysed in a Bayesian setting with priors on nuclei of the Voronoi tessellation and other model parameters. An MCMC algorithm is constructed to sample...

  14. Combination of Bayesian Network and Overlay Model in User Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loc Nguyen

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The core of adaptive system is user model containing personal information such as knowledge, learning styles, goals… which is requisite for learning personalized process. There are many modeling approaches, for example: stereotype, overlay, plan recognition… but they don’t bring out the solid method for reasoning from user model. This paper introduces the statistical method that combines Bayesian network and overlay modeling so that it is able to infer user’s knowledge from evidences collected during user’s learning process.

  15. A tutorial introduction to Bayesian models of cognitive development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perfors, Amy; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Griffiths, Thomas L; Xu, Fei

    2011-09-01

    We present an introduction to Bayesian inference as it is used in probabilistic models of cognitive development. Our goal is to provide an intuitive and accessible guide to the what, the how, and the why of the Bayesian approach: what sorts of problems and data the framework is most relevant for, and how and why it may be useful for developmentalists. We emphasize a qualitative understanding of Bayesian inference, but also include information about additional resources for those interested in the cognitive science applications, mathematical foundations, or machine learning details in more depth. In addition, we discuss some important interpretation issues that often arise when evaluating Bayesian models in cognitive science. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Modelling of JET diagnostics using Bayesian Graphical Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svensson, J. [IPP Greifswald, Greifswald (Germany); Ford, O. [Imperial College, London (United Kingdom); McDonald, D.; Hole, M.; Nessi, G. von; Meakins, A.; Brix, M.; Thomsen, H.; Werner, A.; Sirinelli, A.

    2011-07-01

    The mapping between physics parameters (such as densities, currents, flows, temperatures etc) defining the plasma 'state' under a given model and the raw observations of each plasma diagnostic will 1) depend on the particular physics model used, 2) is inherently probabilistic, from uncertainties on both observations and instrumental aspects of the mapping, such as calibrations, instrument functions etc. A flexible and principled way of modelling such interconnected probabilistic systems is through so called Bayesian graphical models. Being an amalgam between graph theory and probability theory, Bayesian graphical models can simulate the complex interconnections between physics models and diagnostic observations from multiple heterogeneous diagnostic systems, making it relatively easy to optimally combine the observations from multiple diagnostics for joint inference on parameters of the underlying physics model, which in itself can be represented as part of the graph. At JET about 10 diagnostic systems have to date been modelled in this way, and has lead to a number of new results, including: the reconstruction of the flux surface topology and q-profiles without any specific equilibrium assumption, using information from a number of different diagnostic systems; profile inversions taking into account the uncertainties in the flux surface positions and a substantial increase in accuracy of JET electron density and temperature profiles, including improved pedestal resolution, through the joint analysis of three diagnostic systems. It is believed that the Bayesian graph approach could potentially be utilised for very large sets of diagnostics, providing a generic data analysis framework for nuclear fusion experiments, that would be able to optimally utilize the information from multiple diagnostics simultaneously, and where the explicit graph representation of the connections to underlying physics models could be used for sophisticated model testing. This

  17. Inventory model using bayesian dynamic linear model for demand forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marisol Valencia-Cárdenas

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available An important factor of manufacturing process is the inventory management of terminated product. Constantly, industry is looking for better alternatives to establish an adequate plan of production and stored quantities, with optimal cost, getting quantities in a time horizon, which permits to define resources and logistics with anticipation, needed to distribute products on time. Total absence of historical data, required by many statistical models to forecast, demands the search for other kind of accurate techniques. This work presents an alternative that not only permits to forecast, in an adjusted way, but also, to provide optimal quantities to produce and store with an optimal cost, using Bayesian statistics. The proposal is illustrated with real data. Palabras clave: estadística bayesiana, optimización, modelo de inventarios, modelo lineal dinámico bayesiano. Keywords: Bayesian statistics, opti

  18. Spatial Intensity Duration Frequency Relationships Using Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis for Urban Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupa, Chandra; Mujumdar, Pradeep

    2016-04-01

    In urban areas, quantification of extreme precipitation is important in the design of storm water drains and other infrastructure. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are generally used to obtain design return level for a given duration and return period. Due to lack of availability of extreme precipitation data for sufficiently large number of years, estimating the probability of extreme events is difficult. Typically, a single station data is used to obtain the design return levels for various durations and return periods, which are used in the design of urban infrastructure for the entire city. In an urban setting, the spatial variation of precipitation can be high; the precipitation amounts and patterns often vary within short distances of less than 5 km. Therefore it is crucial to study the uncertainties in the spatial variation of return levels for various durations. In this work, the extreme precipitation is modeled spatially using the Bayesian hierarchical analysis and the spatial variation of return levels is studied. The analysis is carried out with Block Maxima approach for defining the extreme precipitation, using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for Bangalore city, Karnataka state, India. Daily data for nineteen stations in and around Bangalore city is considered in the study. The analysis is carried out for summer maxima (March - May), monsoon maxima (June - September) and the annual maxima rainfall. In the hierarchical analysis, the statistical model is specified in three layers. The data layer models the block maxima, pooling the extreme precipitation from all the stations. In the process layer, the latent spatial process characterized by geographical and climatological covariates (lat-lon, elevation, mean temperature etc.) which drives the extreme precipitation is modeled and in the prior level, the prior distributions that govern the latent process are modeled. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm (Metropolis Hastings

  19. Toward Bayesian inference of the spatial distribution of proteins from three-cube Förster resonance energy transfer data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hooghoudt, Jan Otto; Barroso, Margarida; Waagepetersen, Rasmus Plenge

    2017-01-01

    Főrster resonance energy transfer (FRET) is a quantum-physical phenomenon where energy may be transferred from one molecule to a neighbour molecule if the molecules are close enough. Using fluorophore molecule marking of proteins in a cell it is possible to measure in microscopic images to what....... In this paper we propose a new likelihood-based approach to statistical inference for FRET microscopic data. The likelihood function is obtained from a detailed modeling of the FRET data generating mechanism conditional on a protein configuration. We next follow a Bayesian approach and introduce a spatial point...

  20. Spatial Distribution of the Coefficient of Variation and Bayesian Forecast for the Paleo-Earthquakes in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nomura, Shunichi; Ogata, Yosihiko

    2016-04-01

    We propose a Bayesian method of probability forecasting for recurrent earthquakes of inland active faults in Japan. Renewal processes with the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) distribution are applied for over a half of active faults in Japan by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) of Japan. Long-term forecast with the BPT distribution needs two parameters; the mean and coefficient of variation (COV) for recurrence intervals. The HERP applies a common COV parameter for all of these faults because most of them have very few specified paleoseismic events, which is not enough to estimate reliable COV values for respective faults. However, different COV estimates are proposed for the same paleoseismic catalog by some related works. It can make critical difference in forecast to apply different COV estimates and so COV should be carefully selected for individual faults. Recurrence intervals on a fault are, on the average, determined by the long-term slip rate caused by the tectonic motion but fluctuated by nearby seismicities which influence surrounding stress field. The COVs of recurrence intervals depend on such stress perturbation and so have spatial trends due to the heterogeneity of tectonic motion and seismicity. Thus we introduce a spatial structure on its COV parameter by Bayesian modeling with a Gaussian process prior. The COVs on active faults are correlated and take similar values for closely located faults. It is found that the spatial trends in the estimated COV values coincide with the density of active faults in Japan. We also show Bayesian forecasts by the proposed model using Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Our forecasts are different from HERP's forecast especially on the active faults where HERP's forecasts are very high or low.

  1. Cortical Coupling Reflects Bayesian Belief Updating in the Deployment of Spatial Attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vossel, Simone; Mathys, Christoph; Stephan, Klaas E; Friston, Karl J

    2015-08-19

    The deployment of visuospatial attention and the programming of saccades are governed by the inferred likelihood of events. In the present study, we combined computational modeling of psychophysical data with fMRI to characterize the computational and neural mechanisms underlying this flexible attentional control. Sixteen healthy human subjects performed a modified version of Posner's location-cueing paradigm in which the percentage of cue validity varied in time and the targets required saccadic responses. Trialwise estimates of the certainty (precision) of the prediction that the target would appear at the cued location were derived from a hierarchical Bayesian model fitted to individual trialwise saccadic response speeds. Trial-specific model parameters then entered analyses of fMRI data as parametric regressors. Moreover, dynamic causal modeling (DCM) was performed to identify the most likely functional architecture of the attentional reorienting network and its modulation by (Bayes-optimal) precision-dependent attention. While the frontal eye fields (FEFs), intraparietal sulcus, and temporoparietal junction (TPJ) of both hemispheres showed higher activity on invalid relative to valid trials, reorienting responses in right FEF, TPJ, and the putamen were significantly modulated by precision-dependent attention. Our DCM results suggested that the precision of predictability underlies the attentional modulation of the coupling of TPJ with FEF and the putamen. Our results shed new light on the computational architecture and neuronal network dynamics underlying the context-sensitive deployment of visuospatial attention. Spatial attention and its neural correlates in the human brain have been studied extensively with the help of fMRI and cueing paradigms in which the location of targets is pre-cued on a trial-by-trial basis. One aspect that has so far been neglected concerns the question of how the brain forms attentional expectancies when no a priori probability

  2. A Bayesian alternative for multi-objective ecohydrological model specification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yating; Marshall, Lucy; Sharma, Ashish; Ajami, Hoori

    2018-01-01

    Recent studies have identified the importance of vegetation processes in terrestrial hydrologic systems. Process-based ecohydrological models combine hydrological, physical, biochemical and ecological processes of the catchments, and as such are generally more complex and parametric than conceptual hydrological models. Thus, appropriate calibration objectives and model uncertainty analysis are essential for ecohydrological modeling. In recent years, Bayesian inference has become one of the most popular tools for quantifying the uncertainties in hydrological modeling with the development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. The Bayesian approach offers an appealing alternative to traditional multi-objective hydrologic model calibrations by defining proper prior distributions that can be considered analogous to the ad-hoc weighting often prescribed in multi-objective calibration. Our study aims to develop appropriate prior distributions and likelihood functions that minimize the model uncertainties and bias within a Bayesian ecohydrological modeling framework based on a traditional Pareto-based model calibration technique. In our study, a Pareto-based multi-objective optimization and a formal Bayesian framework are implemented in a conceptual ecohydrological model that combines a hydrological model (HYMOD) and a modified Bucket Grassland Model (BGM). Simulations focused on one objective (streamflow/LAI) and multiple objectives (streamflow and LAI) with different emphasis defined via the prior distribution of the model error parameters. Results show more reliable outputs for both predicted streamflow and LAI using Bayesian multi-objective calibration with specified prior distributions for error parameters based on results from the Pareto front in the ecohydrological modeling. The methodology implemented here provides insight into the usefulness of multiobjective Bayesian calibration for ecohydrologic systems and the importance of appropriate prior

  3. Spatial variability of coastal wetland resilience to sea-level rise using Bayesian inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardy, T.; Wu, W.

    2017-12-01

    The coastal wetlands in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) account for 40% of coastal wetland area in the United States and provide various ecosystem services to the region and broader areas. Increasing rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR), and reduced sediment input have increased coastal wetland loss in the NGOM, accounting for 80% of coastal wetland loss in the nation. Traditional models for predicting the impact of RSLR on coastal wetlands in the NGOM have focused on coastal erosion driven by geophysical variables only, and/or at small spatial extents. Here we developed a model in Bayesian inference to make probabilistic prediction of wetland loss in the entire NGOM as a function of vegetation productivity and geophysical attributes. We also studied how restoration efforts help maintain the area of coastal wetlands. Vegetation productivity contributes organic matter to wetland sedimentation and was approximated using the remotely sensed normalized difference moisture index (NDMI). The geophysical variables include RSLR, tidal range, river discharge, coastal slope, and wave height. We found a significantly positive relation between wetland loss and RSLR, which varied significantly at different river discharge regimes. There also existed a significantly negative relation between wetland loss and NDMI, indicating that in-situ vegetation productivity contributed to wetland resilience to RSLR. This relation did not vary significantly between river discharge regimes. The spatial relation revealed three areas of high RSLR but relatively low wetland loss; these areas were associated with wetland restoration projects in coastal Louisiana. Two projects were breakwater projects, where hard materials were placed off-shore to reduce wave action and promote sedimentation. And one project was a vegetation planting project used to promote sedimentation and wetland stabilization. We further developed an interactive web tool that allows stakeholders to develop similar wetland

  4. Bayesian Estimation of the Logistic Positive Exponent IRT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolfarine, Heleno; Bazan, Jorge Luis

    2010-01-01

    A Bayesian inference approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is developed for the logistic positive exponent (LPE) model proposed by Samejima and for a new skewed Logistic Item Response Theory (IRT) model, named Reflection LPE model. Both models lead to asymmetric item characteristic curves (ICC) and can be appropriate because a symmetric…

  5. Using consensus bayesian network to model the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liangdong Hu

    Full Text Available Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn bayesian networks contain too few microarray data. In this paper, we propose a consensus bayesian network which is constructed by combining bayesian networks from relevant literatures and bayesian networks learned from microarray data. It would have a higher accuracy than the bayesian networks learned from one database. In the experiment, we validated the bayesian network combination algorithm on several classic machine learning databases and used the consensus bayesian network to model the Escherichia coli's ROS pathway.

  6. Deprivation and suicide mortality across 424 neighborhoods in Seoul, South Korea: a Bayesian spatial analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Tae-Ho; Noh, Maengseok; Han, Junhee; Jung-Choi, Kyunghee; Khang, Young-Ho

    2015-12-01

    A neighborhood-level analysis of mortality from suicide would be informative in developing targeted approaches to reducing suicide. This study aims to examine the association of community characteristics with suicide in the 424 neighborhoods of Seoul, South Korea. Neighborhood-level mortality and population data (2005-2011) were obtained to calculate age-standardized suicide rates. Eight community characteristics and their associated deprivation index were employed as determinants of suicide rates. The Bayesian hierarchical model with mixed effects for neighborhoods was used to fit age-standardized suicide rates and other covariates with consideration of spatial correlations. Suicide rates for 424 neighborhoods were between 7.32 and 71.09 per 100,000. Ninety-nine percent of 424 neighborhoods recorded greater suicide rates than the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development member countries' average. A stepwise relationship between area deprivation and suicide was found. Neighborhood-level indicators for lack of social support (residents living alone and the divorced or separated) and socioeconomic disadvantages (low educational attainment) were positively associated with suicide mortality after controlling for other covariates. Finding from this study could be used to identify priority areas and to develop community-based programs for preventing suicide in Seoul, South Korea.

  7. Bayesian Spatial Design of Optimal Deep Tubewell Locations in Matlab, Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Joshua L; Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; Yunus, Mohammad

    2013-09-01

    We introduce a method for statistically identifying the optimal locations of deep tubewells (dtws) to be installed in Matlab, Bangladesh. Dtw installations serve to mitigate exposure to naturally occurring arsenic found at groundwater depths less than 200 meters, a serious environmental health threat for the population of Bangladesh. We introduce an objective function, which incorporates both arsenic level and nearest town population size, to identify optimal locations for dtw placement. Assuming complete knowledge of the arsenic surface, we then demonstrate how minimizing the objective function over a domain favors dtws placed in areas with high arsenic values and close to largely populated regions. Given only a partial realization of the arsenic surface over a domain, we use a Bayesian spatial statistical model to predict the full arsenic surface and estimate the optimal dtw locations. The uncertainty associated with these estimated locations is correctly characterized as well. The new method is applied to a dataset from a village in Matlab and the estimated optimal locations are analyzed along with their respective 95% credible regions.

  8. Maritime piracy situation modelling with dynamic Bayesian networks

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dabrowski, James M

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A generative model for modelling maritime vessel behaviour is proposed. The model is a novel variant of the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN). The proposed DBN is in the form of a switching linear dynamic system (SLDS) that has been extended into a...

  9. Bayesian inference model for fatigue life of laminated composites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov; Kiureghian, Armen Der; Berggreen, Christian

    2016-01-01

    A probabilistic model for estimating the fatigue life of laminated composite plates is developed. The model is based on lamina-level input data, making it possible to predict fatigue properties for a wide range of laminate configurations. Model parameters are estimated by Bayesian inference. The ...

  10. Characterizing economic trends by Bayesian stochastic model specification search

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grassi, Stefano; Proietti, Tommaso

    We extend a recently proposed Bayesian model selection technique, known as stochastic model specification search, for characterising the nature of the trend in macroeconomic time series. In particular, we focus on autoregressive models with possibly time-varying intercept and slope and decide on ...

  11. Bayesian Plackett-Luce Mixture Models for Partially Ranked Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollica, Cristina; Tardella, Luca

    2017-06-01

    The elicitation of an ordinal judgment on multiple alternatives is often required in many psychological and behavioral experiments to investigate preference/choice orientation of a specific population. The Plackett-Luce model is one of the most popular and frequently applied parametric distributions to analyze rankings of a finite set of items. The present work introduces a Bayesian finite mixture of Plackett-Luce models to account for unobserved sample heterogeneity of partially ranked data. We describe an efficient way to incorporate the latent group structure in the data augmentation approach and the derivation of existing maximum likelihood procedures as special instances of the proposed Bayesian method. Inference can be conducted with the combination of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm for maximum a posteriori estimation and the Gibbs sampling iterative procedure. We additionally investigate several Bayesian criteria for selecting the optimal mixture configuration and describe diagnostic tools for assessing the fitness of ranking distributions conditionally and unconditionally on the number of ranked items. The utility of the novel Bayesian parametric Plackett-Luce mixture for characterizing sample heterogeneity is illustrated with several applications to simulated and real preference ranked data. We compare our method with the frequentist approach and a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model both assuming the Plackett-Luce model as a mixture component. Our analysis on real datasets reveals the importance of an accurate diagnostic check for an appropriate in-depth understanding of the heterogenous nature of the partial ranking data.

  12. Bayesian inference of chemical kinetic models from proposed reactions

    KAUST Repository

    Galagali, Nikhil

    2015-02-01

    © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. Bayesian inference provides a natural framework for combining experimental data with prior knowledge to develop chemical kinetic models and quantify the associated uncertainties, not only in parameter values but also in model structure. Most existing applications of Bayesian model selection methods to chemical kinetics have been limited to comparisons among a small set of models, however. The significant computational cost of evaluating posterior model probabilities renders traditional Bayesian methods infeasible when the model space becomes large. We present a new framework for tractable Bayesian model inference and uncertainty quantification using a large number of systematically generated model hypotheses. The approach involves imposing point-mass mixture priors over rate constants and exploring the resulting posterior distribution using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The posterior samples are used to identify plausible models, to quantify rate constant uncertainties, and to extract key diagnostic information about model structure-such as the reactions and operating pathways most strongly supported by the data. We provide numerical demonstrations of the proposed framework by inferring kinetic models for catalytic steam and dry reforming of methane using available experimental data.

  13. Bayesian Subset Modeling for High-Dimensional Generalized Linear Models

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2013-06-01

    This article presents a new prior setting for high-dimensional generalized linear models, which leads to a Bayesian subset regression (BSR) with the maximum a posteriori model approximately equivalent to the minimum extended Bayesian information criterion model. The consistency of the resulting posterior is established under mild conditions. Further, a variable screening procedure is proposed based on the marginal inclusion probability, which shares the same properties of sure screening and consistency with the existing sure independence screening (SIS) and iterative sure independence screening (ISIS) procedures. However, since the proposed procedure makes use of joint information from all predictors, it generally outperforms SIS and ISIS in real applications. This article also makes extensive comparisons of BSR with the popular penalized likelihood methods, including Lasso, elastic net, SIS, and ISIS. The numerical results indicate that BSR can generally outperform the penalized likelihood methods. The models selected by BSR tend to be sparser and, more importantly, of higher prediction ability. In addition, the performance of the penalized likelihood methods tends to deteriorate as the number of predictors increases, while this is not significant for BSR. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  14. Bayesian spatio-temporal discard model in a demersal trawl fishery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grazia Pennino, M.; Muñoz, Facundo; Conesa, David; López-Quílez, Antonio; Bellido, José M.

    2014-07-01

    Spatial management of discards has recently been proposed as a useful tool for the protection of juveniles, by reducing discard rates and can be used as a buffer against management errors and recruitment failure. In this study Bayesian hierarchical spatial models have been used to analyze about 440 trawl fishing operations of two different metiers, sampled between 2009 and 2012, in order to improve our understanding of factors that influence the quantity of discards and to identify their spatio-temporal distribution in the study area. Our analysis showed that the relative importance of each variable was different for each metier, with a few similarities. In particular, the random vessel effect and seasonal variability were identified as main driving variables for both metiers. Predictive maps of the abundance of discards and maps of the posterior mean of the spatial component show several hot spots with high discard concentration for each metier. We argue how the seasonal/spatial effects, and the knowledge about the factors influential to discarding, could potentially be exploited as potential mitigation measures for future fisheries management strategies. However, misidentification of hotspots and uncertain predictions can culminate in inappropriate mitigation practices which can sometimes be irreversible. The proposed Bayesian spatial method overcomes these issues, since it offers a unified approach which allows the incorporation of spatial random-effect terms, spatial correlation of the variables and the uncertainty of the parameters in the modeling process, resulting in a better quantification of the uncertainty and accurate predictions.

  15. Socio-ecological factors and hand, foot and mouth disease in dry climate regions: a Bayesian spatial approach in Gansu, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gou, Faxiang; Liu, Xinfeng; Ren, Xiaowei; Liu, Dongpeng; Liu, Haixia; Wei, Kongfu; Yang, Xiaoting; Cheng, Yao; Zheng, Yunhe; Jiang, Xiaojuan; Li, Juansheng; Meng, Lei; Hu, Wenbiao

    2017-01-01

    The influence of socio-ecological factors on hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) were explored in this study using Bayesian spatial modeling and spatial patterns identified in dry regions of Gansu, China. Notified HFMD cases and socio-ecological data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, Gansu Yearbook and Gansu Meteorological Bureau. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive model was used to quantify the effects of socio-ecological factors on the HFMD and explore spatial patterns, with the consideration of its socio-ecological effects. Our non-spatial model suggests temperature (relative risk (RR) 1.15, 95 % CI 1.01-1.31), GDP per capita (RR 1.19, 95 % CI 1.01-1.39) and population density (RR 1.98, 95 % CI 1.19-3.17) to have a significant effect on HFMD transmission. However, after controlling for spatial random effects, only temperature (RR 1.25, 95 % CI 1.04-1.53) showed significant association with HFMD. The spatial model demonstrates temperature to play a major role in the transmission of HFMD in dry regions. Estimated residual variation after taking into account the socio-ecological variables indicated that high incidences of HFMD were mainly clustered in the northwest of Gansu. And, spatial structure showed a unique distribution after taking account of socio-ecological effects.

  16. BayesCLUMPY: BAYESIAN INFERENCE WITH CLUMPY DUSTY TORUS MODELS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asensio Ramos, A.; Ramos Almeida, C.

    2009-01-01

    Our aim is to present a fast and general Bayesian inference framework based on the synergy between machine learning techniques and standard sampling methods and apply it to infer the physical properties of clumpy dusty torus using infrared photometric high spatial resolution observations of active galactic nuclei. We make use of the Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for sampling the posterior distribution function. Such distribution results from combining all a priori knowledge about the parameters of the model and the information introduced by the observations. The main difficulty resides in the fact that the model used to explain the observations is computationally demanding and the sampling is very time consuming. For this reason, we apply a set of artificial neural networks that are used to approximate and interpolate a database of models. As a consequence, models not present in the original database can be computed ensuring continuity. We focus on the application of this solution scheme to the recently developed public database of clumpy dusty torus models. The machine learning scheme used in this paper allows us to generate any model from the database using only a factor of 10 -4 of the original size of the database and a factor of 10 -3 in computing time. The posterior distribution obtained for each model parameter allows us to investigate how the observations constrain the parameters and which ones remain partially or completely undetermined, providing statistically relevant confidence intervals. As an example, the application to the nuclear region of Centaurus A shows that the optical depth of the clouds, the total number of clouds, and the radial extent of the cloud distribution zone are well constrained using only six filters. The code is freely available from the authors.

  17. Research & development and growth: A Bayesian model averaging analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horváth, Roman

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 28, č. 6 (2011), s. 2669-2673 ISSN 0264-9993. [Society for Non-linear Dynamics and Econometrics Annual Conferencen. Washington DC, 16.03.2011-18.03.2011] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Research and development * Growth * Bayesian model averaging Subject RIV: AH - Economic s Impact factor: 0.701, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/E/horvath-research & development and growth a bayesian model averaging analysis.pdf

  18. Bayesian inference with information content model check for Langevin equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krog, Jens F. C.; Lomholt, Michael Andersen

    2017-01-01

    The Bayesian data analysis framework has been proven to be a systematic and effective method of parameter inference and model selection for stochastic processes. In this work we introduce an information content model check which may serve as a goodness-of-fit, like the chi-square procedure...

  19. Accurate phenotyping: Reconciling approaches through Bayesian model averaging.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Chia-Ming Chen

    Full Text Available Genetic research into complex diseases is frequently hindered by a lack of clear biomarkers for phenotype ascertainment. Phenotypes for such diseases are often identified on the basis of clinically defined criteria; however such criteria may not be suitable for understanding the genetic composition of the diseases. Various statistical approaches have been proposed for phenotype definition; however our previous studies have shown that differences in phenotypes estimated using different approaches have substantial impact on subsequent analyses. Instead of obtaining results based upon a single model, we propose a new method, using Bayesian model averaging to overcome problems associated with phenotype definition. Although Bayesian model averaging has been used in other fields of research, this is the first study that uses Bayesian model averaging to reconcile phenotypes obtained using multiple models. We illustrate the new method by applying it to simulated genetic and phenotypic data for Kofendred personality disorder-an imaginary disease with several sub-types. Two separate statistical methods were used to identify clusters of individuals with distinct phenotypes: latent class analysis and grade of membership. Bayesian model averaging was then used to combine the two clusterings for the purpose of subsequent linkage analyses. We found that causative genetic loci for the disease produced higher LOD scores using model averaging than under either individual model separately. We attribute this improvement to consolidation of the cores of phenotype clusters identified using each individual method.

  20. Involving stakeholders in building integrated fisheries models using Bayesian methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet; Mäntyniemi, Samu; Kuikka, Sakari

    2013-01-01

    the potential of the study to contribute to the development of participatory modeling practices. It is concluded that the subjective perspective to knowledge, that is fundamental in Bayesian theory, suits participatory modeling better than a positivist paradigm that seeks the objective truth. The methodology...

  1. Small Sample Properties of Bayesian Multivariate Autoregressive Time Series Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Larry R.

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the small sample (N = 1, 3, 5, 10, 15) performance of a Bayesian multivariate vector autoregressive (BVAR-SEM) time series model relative to frequentist power and parameter estimation bias. A multivariate autoregressive model was developed based on correlated autoregressive time series vectors of varying…

  2. Bayesian Network Models in Cyber Security: A Systematic Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chockalingam, S.; Pieters, W.; Herdeiro Teixeira, A.M.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Lipmaa, Helger; Mitrokotsa, Aikaterini; Matulevicius, Raimundas

    2017-01-01

    Bayesian Networks (BNs) are an increasingly popular modelling technique in cyber security especially due to their capability to overcome data limitations. This is also instantiated by the growth of BN models development in cyber security. However, a comprehensive comparison and analysis of these

  3. A Bayesian Model of the Memory Colour Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witzel, Christoph; Olkkonen, Maria; Gegenfurtner, Karl R

    2018-01-01

    According to the memory colour effect, the colour of a colour-diagnostic object is not perceived independently of the object itself. Instead, it has been shown through an achromatic adjustment method that colour-diagnostic objects still appear slightly in their typical colour, even when they are colourimetrically grey. Bayesian models provide a promising approach to capture the effect of prior knowledge on colour perception and to link these effects to more general effects of cue integration. Here, we model memory colour effects using prior knowledge about typical colours as priors for the grey adjustments in a Bayesian model. This simple model does not involve any fitting of free parameters. The Bayesian model roughly captured the magnitude of the measured memory colour effect for photographs of objects. To some extent, the model predicted observed differences in memory colour effects across objects. The model could not account for the differences in memory colour effects across different levels of realism in the object images. The Bayesian model provides a particularly simple account of memory colour effects, capturing some of the multiple sources of variation of these effects.

  4. Exploring the Influence of Neighborhood Characteristics on Burglary Risks: A Bayesian Random Effects Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongqiang Liu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A Bayesian random effects modeling approach was used to examine the influence of neighborhood characteristics on burglary risks in Jianghan District, Wuhan, China. This random effects model is essentially spatial; a spatially structured random effects term and an unstructured random effects term are added to the traditional non-spatial Poisson regression model. Based on social disorganization and routine activity theories, five covariates extracted from the available data at the neighborhood level were used in the modeling. Three regression models were fitted and compared by the deviance information criterion to identify which model best fit our data. A comparison of the results from the three models indicates that the Bayesian random effects model is superior to the non-spatial models in fitting the data and estimating regression coefficients. Our results also show that neighborhoods with above average bar density and department store density have higher burglary risks. Neighborhood-specific burglary risks and posterior probabilities of neighborhoods having a burglary risk greater than 1.0 were mapped, indicating the neighborhoods that should warrant more attention and be prioritized for crime intervention and reduction. Implications and limitations of the study are discussed in our concluding section.

  5. Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age–depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Werner

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Reconstructions of the late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting, such as measurements of tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments. Considerable advances could be achieved if time-uncertain proxies were able to be included within these multiproxy reconstructions, and if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches for accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each one of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty – in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space–time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Here, we demonstrate how Bayesian hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time-uncertain proxies. Critically, although a priori all age models are given equal probability of being correct, the probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments show that updating the age model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the resulting reconstructions, as compared with the current de facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the spatial region of the time-uncertain proxy. This approach can readily be generalized to non-layer-counted proxies, such as those derived from marine sediments.

  6. Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for Subsurface Inversion Using a Multiscale Hierarchical Model

    KAUST Repository

    Mondal, Anirban

    2014-07-03

    We consider a Bayesian approach to nonlinear inverse problems in which the unknown quantity is a random field (spatial or temporal). The Bayesian approach contains a natural mechanism for regularization in the form of prior information, can incorporate information from heterogeneous sources and provide a quantitative assessment of uncertainty in the inverse solution. The Bayesian setting casts the inverse solution as a posterior probability distribution over the model parameters. The Karhunen-Loeve expansion is used for dimension reduction of the random field. Furthermore, we use a hierarchical Bayes model to inject multiscale data in the modeling framework. In this Bayesian framework, we show that this inverse problem is well-posed by proving that the posterior measure is Lipschitz continuous with respect to the data in total variation norm. Computational challenges in this construction arise from the need for repeated evaluations of the forward model (e.g., in the context of MCMC) and are compounded by high dimensionality of the posterior. We develop two-stage reversible jump MCMC that has the ability to screen the bad proposals in the first inexpensive stage. Numerical results are presented by analyzing simulated as well as real data from hydrocarbon reservoir. This article has supplementary material available online. © 2014 American Statistical Association and the American Society for Quality.

  7. Modeling error distributions of growth curve models through Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiyong

    2016-06-01

    Growth curve models are widely used in social and behavioral sciences. However, typical growth curve models often assume that the errors are normally distributed although non-normal data may be even more common than normal data. In order to avoid possible statistical inference problems in blindly assuming normality, a general Bayesian framework is proposed to flexibly model normal and non-normal data through the explicit specification of the error distributions. A simulation study shows when the distribution of the error is correctly specified, one can avoid the loss in the efficiency of standard error estimates. A real example on the analysis of mathematical ability growth data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 is used to show the application of the proposed methods. Instructions and code on how to conduct growth curve analysis with both normal and non-normal error distributions using the the MCMC procedure of SAS are provided.

  8. Bayesian Network Models in Cyber Security: A Systematic Review

    OpenAIRE

    Chockalingam, S.; Pieters, W.; Herdeiro Teixeira, A.M.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Lipmaa, Helger; Mitrokotsa, Aikaterini; Matulevicius, Raimundas

    2017-01-01

    Bayesian Networks (BNs) are an increasingly popular modelling technique in cyber security especially due to their capability to overcome data limitations. This is also instantiated by the growth of BN models development in cyber security. However, a comprehensive comparison and analysis of these models is missing. In this paper, we conduct a systematic review of the scientific literature and identify 17 standard BN models in cyber security. We analyse these models based on 9 different criteri...

  9. Development of dynamic Bayesian models for web application test management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azarnova, T. V.; Polukhin, P. V.; Bondarenko, Yu V.; Kashirina, I. L.

    2018-03-01

    The mathematical apparatus of dynamic Bayesian networks is an effective and technically proven tool that can be used to model complex stochastic dynamic processes. According to the results of the research, mathematical models and methods of dynamic Bayesian networks provide a high coverage of stochastic tasks associated with error testing in multiuser software products operated in a dynamically changing environment. Formalized representation of the discrete test process as a dynamic Bayesian model allows us to organize the logical connection between individual test assets for multiple time slices. This approach gives an opportunity to present testing as a discrete process with set structural components responsible for the generation of test assets. Dynamic Bayesian network-based models allow us to combine in one management area individual units and testing components with different functionalities and a direct influence on each other in the process of comprehensive testing of various groups of computer bugs. The application of the proposed models provides an opportunity to use a consistent approach to formalize test principles and procedures, methods used to treat situational error signs, and methods used to produce analytical conclusions based on test results.

  10. Bayesian log-periodic model for financial crashes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Knapik, Oskar

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces a Bayesian approach in econophysics literature about financial bubbles in order to estimate the most probable time for a financial crash to occur. To this end, we propose using noninformative prior distributions to obtain posterior distributions. Since these distributions...... cannot be performed analytically, we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to draw from posterior distributions. We consider three Bayesian models that involve normal and Student’s t-distributions in the disturbances and an AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) structure only within the first case. In the empirical...... part of the study, we analyze a well-known example of financial bubble – the S&P 500 1987 crash – to show the usefulness of the three methods under consideration and crashes of Merval-94, Bovespa-97, IPCMX-94, Hang Seng-97 using the simplest method. The novelty of this research is that the Bayesian...

  11. Bayesian nonparametric estimation of hazard rate in monotone Aalen model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Timková, Jana

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 6 (2014), s. 849-868 ISSN 0023-5954 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Aalen model * Bayesian estimation * MCMC Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.541, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/SI/timkova-0438210.pdf

  12. Advanced REACH tool: A Bayesian model for occupational exposure assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McNally, K.; Warren, N.; Fransman, W.; Entink, R.K.; Schinkel, J.; Van Tongeren, M.; Cherrie, J.W.; Kromhout, H.; Schneider, T.; Tielemans, E.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes a Bayesian model for the assessment of inhalation exposures in an occupational setting; the methodology underpins a freely available web-based application for exposure assessment, the Advanced REACH Tool (ART). The ART is a higher tier exposure tool that combines disparate

  13. Testing adaptive toolbox models: a Bayesian hierarchical approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2013-01-01

    Many theories of human cognition postulate that people are equipped with a repertoire of strategies to solve the tasks they face. This theoretical framework of a cognitive toolbox provides a plausible account of intra- and interindividual differences in human behavior. Unfortunately, it is often unclear how to rigorously test the toolbox framework. How can a toolbox model be quantitatively specified? How can the number of toolbox strategies be limited to prevent uncontrolled strategy sprawl? How can a toolbox model be formally tested against alternative theories? The authors show how these challenges can be met by using Bayesian inference techniques. By means of parameter recovery simulations and the analysis of empirical data across a variety of domains (i.e., judgment and decision making, children's cognitive development, function learning, and perceptual categorization), the authors illustrate how Bayesian inference techniques allow toolbox models to be quantitatively specified, strategy sprawl to be contained, and toolbox models to be rigorously tested against competing theories. The authors demonstrate that their approach applies at the individual level but can also be generalized to the group level with hierarchical Bayesian procedures. The suggested Bayesian inference techniques represent a theoretical and methodological advancement for toolbox theories of cognition and behavior.

  14. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engeland

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the applicability of the distributed, process-oriented Ecomag model for prediction of daily streamflow in ungauged basins. The Ecomag model is applied as a regional model to nine catchments in the NOPEX area, using Bayesian statistics to estimate the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditioned on the observed streamflow. The distribution is calculated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis. The Bayesian method requires formulation of a likelihood function for the parameters and three alternative formulations are used. The first is a subjectively chosen objective function that describes the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow, as defined in the GLUE framework. The second and third formulations are more statistically correct likelihood models that describe the simulation errors. The full statistical likelihood model describes the simulation errors as an AR(1 process, whereas the simple model excludes the auto-regressive part. The statistical parameters depend on the catchments and the hydrological processes and the statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. The results show that the simple likelihood model gives the most robust parameter estimates. The simulation error may be explained to a large extent by the catchment characteristics and climatic conditions, so it is possible to transfer knowledge about them to ungauged catchments. The statistical models for the simulation errors indicate that structural errors in the model are more important than parameter uncertainties. Keywords: regional hydrological model, model uncertainty, Bayesian analysis, Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis

  15. Bayesian inference method for stochastic damage accumulation modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Xiaomo; Yuan, Yong; Liu, Xian

    2013-01-01

    Damage accumulation based reliability model plays an increasingly important role in successful realization of condition based maintenance for complicated engineering systems. This paper developed a Bayesian framework to establish stochastic damage accumulation model from historical inspection data, considering data uncertainty. Proportional hazards modeling technique is developed to model the nonlinear effect of multiple influencing factors on system reliability. Different from other hazard modeling techniques such as normal linear regression model, the approach does not require any distribution assumption for the hazard model, and can be applied for a wide variety of distribution models. A Bayesian network is created to represent the nonlinear proportional hazards models and to estimate model parameters by Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches are developed to assess the validity of the established damage accumulation model. Anderson–Darling goodness-of-fit test is employed to perform the normality test, and Box–Cox transformation approach is utilized to convert the non-normality data into normal distribution for hypothesis testing in quantitative model validation. The methodology is illustrated with the seepage data collected from real-world subway tunnels.

  16. A Bayesian Markov geostatistical model for estimation of hydrogeological properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosen, L.; Gustafson, G.

    1996-01-01

    A geostatistical methodology based on Markov-chain analysis and Bayesian statistics was developed for probability estimations of hydrogeological and geological properties in the siting process of a nuclear waste repository. The probability estimates have practical use in decision-making on issues such as siting, investigation programs, and construction design. The methodology is nonparametric which makes it possible to handle information that does not exhibit standard statistical distributions, as is often the case for classified information. Data do not need to meet the requirements on additivity and normality as with the geostatistical methods based on regionalized variable theory, e.g., kriging. The methodology also has a formal way for incorporating professional judgments through the use of Bayesian statistics, which allows for updating of prior estimates to posterior probabilities each time new information becomes available. A Bayesian Markov Geostatistical Model (BayMar) software was developed for implementation of the methodology in two and three dimensions. This paper gives (1) a theoretical description of the Bayesian Markov Geostatistical Model; (2) a short description of the BayMar software; and (3) an example of application of the model for estimating the suitability for repository establishment with respect to the three parameters of lithology, hydraulic conductivity, and rock quality designation index (RQD) at 400--500 meters below ground surface in an area around the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southeastern Sweden

  17. Bayesian Dimensionality Assessment for the Multidimensional Nominal Response Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Revuelta

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This article introduces Bayesian estimation and evaluation procedures for the multidimensional nominal response model. The utility of this model is to perform a nominal factor analysis of items that consist of a finite number of unordered response categories. The key aspect of the model, in comparison with traditional factorial model, is that there is a slope for each response category on the latent dimensions, instead of having slopes associated to the items. The extended parameterization of the multidimensional nominal response model requires large samples for estimation. When sample size is of a moderate or small size, some of these parameters may be weakly empirically identifiable and the estimation algorithm may run into difficulties. We propose a Bayesian MCMC inferential algorithm to estimate the parameters and the number of dimensions underlying the multidimensional nominal response model. Two Bayesian approaches to model evaluation were compared: discrepancy statistics (DIC, WAICC, and LOO that provide an indication of the relative merit of different models, and the standardized generalized discrepancy measure that requires resampling data and is computationally more involved. A simulation study was conducted to compare these two approaches, and the results show that the standardized generalized discrepancy measure can be used to reliably estimate the dimensionality of the model whereas the discrepancy statistics are questionable. The paper also includes an example with real data in the context of learning styles, in which the model is used to conduct an exploratory factor analysis of nominal data.

  18. Characterizing economic trends by Bayesian stochastic model specifi cation search

    OpenAIRE

    Grassi, Stefano; Proietti, Tommaso

    2010-01-01

    We apply a recently proposed Bayesian model selection technique, known as stochastic model specification search, for characterising the nature of the trend in macroeconomic time series. We illustrate that the methodology can be quite successfully applied to discriminate between stochastic and deterministic trends. In particular, we formulate autoregressive models with stochastic trends components and decide on whether a specific feature of the series, i.e. the underlying level and/or the rate...

  19. Copula Based Factorization in Bayesian Multivariate Infinite Mixture Models

    OpenAIRE

    Martin Burda; Artem Prokhorov

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian nonparametric models based on infinite mixtures of density kernels have been recently gaining in popularity due to their flexibility and feasibility of implementation even in complicated modeling scenarios. In economics, they have been particularly useful in estimating nonparametric distributions of latent variables. However, these models have been rarely applied in more than one dimension. Indeed, the multivariate case suffers from the curse of dimensionality, with a rapidly increas...

  20. A Bayesian ensemble of sensitivity measures for severe accident modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Department of Basic Sciences, East Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Di Maio, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaio@polimi.it [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Vagnoli, Matteo [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Zio, Enrico [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Chair on System Science and Energetic Challenge, Fondation EDF – Electricite de France Ecole Centrale, Paris, and Supelec, Paris (France); Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • We propose a sensitivity analysis (SA) method based on a Bayesian updating scheme. • The Bayesian updating schemes adjourns an ensemble of sensitivity measures. • Bootstrap replicates of a severe accident code output are fed to the Bayesian scheme. • The MELCOR code simulates the fission products release of LOFT LP-FP-2 experiment. • Results are compared with those of traditional SA methods. - Abstract: In this work, a sensitivity analysis framework is presented to identify the relevant input variables of a severe accident code, based on an incremental Bayesian ensemble updating method. The proposed methodology entails: (i) the propagation of the uncertainty in the input variables through the severe accident code; (ii) the collection of bootstrap replicates of the input and output of limited number of simulations for building a set of finite mixture models (FMMs) for approximating the probability density function (pdf) of the severe accident code output of the replicates; (iii) for each FMM, the calculation of an ensemble of sensitivity measures (i.e., input saliency, Hellinger distance and Kullback–Leibler divergence) and the updating when a new piece of evidence arrives, by a Bayesian scheme, based on the Bradley–Terry model for ranking the most relevant input model variables. An application is given with respect to a limited number of simulations of a MELCOR severe accident model describing the fission products release in the LP-FP-2 experiment of the loss of fluid test (LOFT) facility, which is a scaled-down facility of a pressurized water reactor (PWR).

  1. The Relevance Voxel Machine (RVoxM): A Self-Tuning Bayesian Model for Informative Image-Based Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabuncu, Mert R.; Van Leemput, Koen

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the relevance voxel machine (RVoxM), a dedicated Bayesian model for making predictions based on medical imaging data. In contrast to the generic machine learning algorithms that have often been used for this purpose, the method is designed to utilize a small number of spatially...

  2. Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Villemereuil Pierre de

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small. Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible

  3. Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for

  4. Bayesian non parametric modelling of Higgs pair production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scarpa Bruno

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Statistical classification models are commonly used to separate a signal from a background. In this talk we face the problem of isolating the signal of Higgs pair production using the decay channel in which each boson decays into a pair of b-quarks. Typically in this context non parametric methods are used, such as Random Forests or different types of boosting tools. We remain in the same non-parametric framework, but we propose to face the problem following a Bayesian approach. A Dirichlet process is used as prior for the random effects in a logit model which is fitted by leveraging the Polya-Gamma data augmentation. Refinements of the model include the insertion in the simple model of P-splines to relate explanatory variables with the response and the use of Bayesian trees (BART to describe the atoms in the Dirichlet process.

  5. Modelling cheetah relocation success in southern Africa using an iterative Bayesian network development cycle

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Johnson, S

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available metapopulations was the focus of a Bayesian Network (BN) modelling workshop in South Africa. Using a new heuristics, Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), described in this paper, several networks were formulated to distinguish between the unique...

  6. APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS TO A LAGRANGIAN PHOTOCHEMICAL AIR QUALITY MODEL. (R824792)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uncertainties in ozone concentrations predicted with a Lagrangian photochemical air quality model have been estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) analysis. Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis provides a means of combining subjective "prior" uncertainty estimates developed ...

  7. Technical note: Bayesian calibration of dynamic ruminant nutrition models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, K F; Arhonditsis, G B; France, J; Kebreab, E

    2016-08-01

    Mechanistic models of ruminant digestion and metabolism have advanced our understanding of the processes underlying ruminant animal physiology. Deterministic modeling practices ignore the inherent variation within and among individual animals and thus have no way to assess how sources of error influence model outputs. We introduce Bayesian calibration of mathematical models to address the need for robust mechanistic modeling tools that can accommodate error analysis by remaining within the bounds of data-based parameter estimation. For the purpose of prediction, the Bayesian approach generates a posterior predictive distribution that represents the current estimate of the value of the response variable, taking into account both the uncertainty about the parameters and model residual variability. Predictions are expressed as probability distributions, thereby conveying significantly more information than point estimates in regard to uncertainty. Our study illustrates some of the technical advantages of Bayesian calibration and discusses the future perspectives in the context of animal nutrition modeling. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Projecting UK mortality using Bayesian generalised additive models

    OpenAIRE

    Hilton, Jason; Dodd, Erengul; Forster, Jonathan; Smith, Peter W.F.

    2018-01-01

    Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to the forecasting of mortality that jointly estimates a Generalised Additive Model (GAM) for mortality for the majority of the age-range and a parametric model for older ages where the data are sparser. The GAM allows smooth components...

  9. Bayesian modeling and prediction of solar particles flux

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dedecius, Kamil; Kalova, Jana

    2010-01-01

    An autoregression model was developed based on the Bayesian approach. Considering the solar wind non-homogeneity, the idea was applied of combining the pure autoregressive properties of the model with expert knowledge based on a similar behaviour of the various phenomena related to the flux properties. Examples of such situations include the hardening of the X-ray spectrum, which is often followed by coronal mass ejection and a significant increase in the particles flux intensity

  10. Spatial Stochastic Point Models for Reservoir Characterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syversveen, Anne Randi

    1997-12-31

    The main part of this thesis discusses stochastic modelling of geology in petroleum reservoirs. A marked point model is defined for objects against a background in a two-dimensional vertical cross section of the reservoir. The model handles conditioning on observations from more than one well for each object and contains interaction between objects, and the objects have the correct length distribution when penetrated by wells. The model is developed in a Bayesian setting. The model and the simulation algorithm are demonstrated by means of an example with simulated data. The thesis also deals with object recognition in image analysis, in a Bayesian framework, and with a special type of spatial Cox processes called log-Gaussian Cox processes. In these processes, the logarithm of the intensity function is a Gaussian process. The class of log-Gaussian Cox processes provides flexible models for clustering. The distribution of such a process is completely characterized by the intensity and the pair correlation function of the Cox process. 170 refs., 37 figs., 5 tabs.

  11. Bayesian model for matching the radiometric measurements of aerospace and field ocean color sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salama, Mhd Suhyb; Su, Zhongbo

    2010-01-01

    A Bayesian model is developed to match aerospace ocean color observation to field measurements and derive the spatial variability of match-up sites. The performance of the model is tested against populations of synthesized spectra and full and reduced resolutions of MERIS data. The model derived the scale difference between synthesized satellite pixel and point measurements with R(2) > 0.88 and relative error < 21% in the spectral range from 400 nm to 695 nm. The sub-pixel variabilities of reduced resolution MERIS image are derived with less than 12% of relative errors in heterogeneous region. The method is generic and applicable to different sensors.

  12. Bayesian Model for Matching the Radiometric Measurements of Aerospace and Field Ocean Color Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mhd. Suhyb Salama

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available A Bayesian model is developed to match aerospace ocean color observation tofield measurements and derive the spatial variability of match-up sites. The performance of the model is tested against populations of synthesized spectra and full and reduced resolutions of MERIS data. The model derived the scale difference between synthesized satellite pixel and point measurements with R2 > 0.88 and relative error < 21% in the spectral range from 400 nm to 695 nm. The sub-pixel variabilities of reduced resolution MERIS image are derived with less than 12% of relative errors in heterogeneous region. The method is generic and applicable to different sensors.

  13. Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part I: Forward models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd

    2011-01-01

    Prediction of coastal processes, including waves, currents, and sediment transport, can be obtained from a variety of detailed geophysical-process models with many simulations showing significant skill. This capability supports a wide range of research and applied efforts that can benefit from accurate numerical predictions. However, the predictions are only as accurate as the data used to drive the models and, given the large temporal and spatial variability of the surf zone, inaccuracies in data are unavoidable such that useful predictions require corresponding estimates of uncertainty. We demonstrate how a Bayesian-network model can be used to provide accurate predictions of wave-height evolution in the surf zone given very sparse and/or inaccurate boundary-condition data. The approach is based on a formal treatment of a data-assimilation problem that takes advantage of significant reduction of the dimensionality of the model system. We demonstrate that predictions of a detailed geophysical model of the wave evolution are reproduced accurately using a Bayesian approach. In this surf-zone application, forward prediction skill was 83%, and uncertainties in the model inputs were accurately transferred to uncertainty in output variables. We also demonstrate that if modeling uncertainties were not conveyed to the Bayesian network (i.e., perfect data or model were assumed), then overly optimistic prediction uncertainties were computed. More consistent predictions and uncertainties were obtained by including model-parameter errors as a source of input uncertainty. Improved predictions (skill of 90%) were achieved because the Bayesian network simultaneously estimated optimal parameters while predicting wave heights.

  14. Application of a predictive Bayesian model to environmental accounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anex, R P; Englehardt, J D

    2001-03-30

    Environmental accounting techniques are intended to capture important environmental costs and benefits that are often overlooked in standard accounting practices. Environmental accounting methods themselves often ignore or inadequately represent large but highly uncertain environmental costs and costs conditioned by specific prior events. Use of a predictive Bayesian model is demonstrated for the assessment of such highly uncertain environmental and contingent costs. The predictive Bayesian approach presented generates probability distributions for the quantity of interest (rather than parameters thereof). A spreadsheet implementation of a previously proposed predictive Bayesian model, extended to represent contingent costs, is described and used to evaluate whether a firm should undertake an accelerated phase-out of its PCB containing transformers. Variability and uncertainty (due to lack of information) in transformer accident frequency and severity are assessed simultaneously using a combination of historical accident data, engineering model-based cost estimates, and subjective judgement. Model results are compared using several different risk measures. Use of the model for incorporation of environmental risk management into a company's overall risk management strategy is discussed.

  15. Bayesian spatial filters for source signal extraction: a study in the peripheral nerve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Y; Wodlinger, B; Durand, D M

    2014-03-01

    The ability to extract physiological source signals to control various prosthetics offer tremendous therapeutic potential to improve the quality of life for patients suffering from motor disabilities. Regardless of the modality, recordings of physiological source signals are contaminated with noise and interference along with crosstalk between the sources. These impediments render the task of isolating potential physiological source signals for control difficult. In this paper, a novel Bayesian Source Filter for signal Extraction (BSFE) algorithm for extracting physiological source signals for control is presented. The BSFE algorithm is based on the source localization method Champagne and constructs spatial filters using Bayesian methods that simultaneously maximize the signal to noise ratio of the recovered source signal of interest while minimizing crosstalk interference between sources. When evaluated over peripheral nerve recordings obtained in vivo, the algorithm achieved the highest signal to noise interference ratio ( 7.00 ±3.45 dB) amongst the group of methodologies compared with average correlation between the extracted source signal and the original source signal R = 0.93. The results support the efficacy of the BSFE algorithm for extracting source signals from the peripheral nerve.

  16. Impact of censoring on learning Bayesian networks in survival modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stajduhar, Ivan; Dalbelo-Basić, Bojana; Bogunović, Nikola

    2009-11-01

    Bayesian networks are commonly used for presenting uncertainty and covariate interactions in an easily interpretable way. Because of their efficient inference and ability to represent causal relationships, they are an excellent choice for medical decision support systems in diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. Although good procedures for learning Bayesian networks from data have been defined, their performance in learning from censored survival data has not been widely studied. In this paper, we explore how to use these procedures to learn about possible interactions between prognostic factors and their influence on the variate of interest. We study how censoring affects the probability of learning correct Bayesian network structures. Additionally, we analyse the potential usefulness of the learnt models for predicting the time-independent probability of an event of interest. We analysed the influence of censoring with a simulation on synthetic data sampled from randomly generated Bayesian networks. We used two well-known methods for learning Bayesian networks from data: a constraint-based method and a score-based method. We compared the performance of each method under different levels of censoring to those of the naive Bayes classifier and the proportional hazards model. We did additional experiments on several datasets from real-world medical domains. The machine-learning methods treated censored cases in the data as event-free. We report and compare results for several commonly used model evaluation metrics. On average, the proportional hazards method outperformed other methods in most censoring setups. As part of the simulation study, we also analysed structural similarities of the learnt networks. Heavy censoring, as opposed to no censoring, produces up to a 5% surplus and up to 10% missing total arcs. It also produces up to 50% missing arcs that should originally be connected to the variate of interest. Presented methods for learning Bayesian networks from

  17. A Bayesian Framework of Uncertainties Integration in 3D Geological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, D.; Liu, X.

    2017-12-01

    3D geological model can describe complicated geological phenomena in an intuitive way while its application may be limited by uncertain factors. Great progress has been made over the years, lots of studies decompose the uncertainties of geological model to analyze separately, while ignored the comprehensive impacts of multi-source uncertainties. Great progress has been made over the years, while lots of studies ignored the comprehensive impacts of multi-source uncertainties when analyzed them item by item from each source. To evaluate the synthetical uncertainty, we choose probability distribution to quantify uncertainty, and propose a bayesian framework of uncertainties integration. With this framework, we integrated data errors, spatial randomness, and cognitive information into posterior distribution to evaluate synthetical uncertainty of geological model. Uncertainties propagate and cumulate in modeling process, the gradual integration of multi-source uncertainty is a kind of simulation of the uncertainty propagation. Bayesian inference accomplishes uncertainty updating in modeling process. Maximum entropy principle makes a good effect on estimating prior probability distribution, which ensures the prior probability distribution subjecting to constraints supplied by the given information with minimum prejudice. In the end, we obtained a posterior distribution to evaluate synthetical uncertainty of geological model. This posterior distribution represents the synthetical impact of all the uncertain factors on the spatial structure of geological model. The framework provides a solution to evaluate synthetical impact on geological model of multi-source uncertainties and a thought to study uncertainty propagation mechanism in geological modeling.

  18. Bayesian Inference of High-Dimensional Dynamical Ocean Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, J.; Lermusiaux, P. F. J.; Lolla, S. V. T.; Gupta, A.; Haley, P. J., Jr.

    2015-12-01

    This presentation addresses a holistic set of challenges in high-dimension ocean Bayesian nonlinear estimation: i) predict the probability distribution functions (pdfs) of large nonlinear dynamical systems using stochastic partial differential equations (PDEs); ii) assimilate data using Bayes' law with these pdfs; iii) predict the future data that optimally reduce uncertainties; and (iv) rank the known and learn the new model formulations themselves. Overall, we allow the joint inference of the state, equations, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions of dynamical models. Examples are provided for time-dependent fluid and ocean flows, including cavity, double-gyre and Strait flows with jets and eddies. The Bayesian model inference, based on limited observations, is illustrated first by the estimation of obstacle shapes and positions in fluid flows. Next, the Bayesian inference of biogeochemical reaction equations and of their states and parameters is presented, illustrating how PDE-based machine learning can rigorously guide the selection and discovery of complex ecosystem models. Finally, the inference of multiscale bottom gravity current dynamics is illustrated, motivated in part by classic overflows and dense water formation sites and their relevance to climate monitoring and dynamics. This is joint work with our MSEAS group at MIT.

  19. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling and Prediction - BAMP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volker J. Schmid

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The software package BAMP provides a method of analyzing incidence or mortality data on the Lexis diagram, using a Bayesian version of an age-period-cohort model. A hierarchical model is assumed with a binomial model in the first-stage. As smoothing priors for the age, period and cohort parameters random walks of first and second order, with and without an additional unstructured component are available. Unstructured heterogeneity can also be included in the model. In order to evaluate the model fit, posterior deviance, DIC and predictive deviances are computed. By projecting the random walk prior into the future, future death rates can be predicted.

  20. Introduction to Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Ecological Data

    CERN Document Server

    Parent, Eric

    2012-01-01

    Making statistical modeling and inference more accessible to ecologists and related scientists, Introduction to Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Ecological Data gives readers a flexible and effective framework to learn about complex ecological processes from various sources of data. It also helps readers get started on building their own statistical models. The text begins with simple models that progressively become more complex and realistic through explanatory covariates and intermediate hidden states variables. When fitting the models to data, the authors gradually present the concepts a

  1. Bayesian Option Pricing using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rombouts, Jeroen; Stentoft, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Option pricing using mixed normal heteroscedasticity models is considered. It is explained how to perform inference and price options in a Bayesian framework. The approach allows to easily compute risk neutral predictive price densities which take into account parameter uncertainty....... In an application to the S&P 500 index, classical and Bayesian inference is performed on the mixture model using the available return data. Comparing the ML estimates and posterior moments small differences are found. When pricing a rich sample of options on the index, both methods yield similar pricing errors...... measured in dollar and implied standard deviation losses, and it turns out that the impact of parameter uncertainty is minor. Therefore, when it comes to option pricing where large amounts of data are available, the choice of the inference method is unimportant. The results are robust to different...

  2. Operational modal analysis modeling, Bayesian inference, uncertainty laws

    CERN Document Server

    Au, Siu-Kui

    2017-01-01

    This book presents operational modal analysis (OMA), employing a coherent and comprehensive Bayesian framework for modal identification and covering stochastic modeling, theoretical formulations, computational algorithms, and practical applications. Mathematical similarities and philosophical differences between Bayesian and classical statistical approaches to system identification are discussed, allowing their mathematical tools to be shared and their results correctly interpreted. Many chapters can be used as lecture notes for the general topic they cover beyond the OMA context. After an introductory chapter (1), Chapters 2–7 present the general theory of stochastic modeling and analysis of ambient vibrations. Readers are first introduced to the spectral analysis of deterministic time series (2) and structural dynamics (3), which do not require the use of probability concepts. The concepts and techniques in these chapters are subsequently extended to a probabilistic context in Chapter 4 (on stochastic pro...

  3. Bayesian hierarchical model for large-scale covariance matrix estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Dongxiao; Hero, Alfred O

    2007-12-01

    Many bioinformatics problems implicitly depend on estimating large-scale covariance matrix. The traditional approaches tend to give rise to high variance and low accuracy due to "overfitting." We cast the large-scale covariance matrix estimation problem into the Bayesian hierarchical model framework, and introduce dependency between covariance parameters. We demonstrate the advantages of our approaches over the traditional approaches using simulations and OMICS data analysis.

  4. Bayesian Modelling of fMRI Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højen-Sørensen, Pedro; Hansen, Lars Kai; Rasmussen, Carl Edward

    2000-01-01

    We present a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for inferring the hidden psychological state (or neural activity) during single trial fMRI activation experiments with blocked task paradigms. Inference is based on Bayesian methodology, using a combination of analytical and a variety of Markov Chain Monte...... Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques. The advantage of this method is that detection of short time learning effects between repeated trials is possible since inference is based only on single trial experiments....

  5. A Bayesian Model of the Memory Colour Effect

    OpenAIRE

    Witzel, Christoph; Olkkonen, Maria; Gegenfurtner, Karl R.

    2018-01-01

    According to the memory colour effect, the colour of a colour-diagnostic object is not perceived independently of the object itself. Instead, it has been shown through an achromatic adjustment method that colour-diagnostic objects still appear slightly in their typical colour, even when they are colourimetrically grey. Bayesian models provide a promising approach to capture the effect of prior knowledge on colour perception and to link these effects to more general effects of cue integration....

  6. A Bayesian model of the memory colour effect.

    OpenAIRE

    Witzel, Christoph; Olkkonen, Maria; Gegenfurtner, Karl R.

    2018-01-01

    According to the memory colour effect, the colour of a colour-diagnostic object is not perceived independently of the object itself. Instead, it has been shown through an achromatic adjustment method that colour-diagnostic objects still appear slightly in their typical colour, even when they are colourimetrically grey. Bayesian models provide a promising approach to capture the effect of prior knowledge on colour perception and to link these effects to more general effects of cue integration....

  7. Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

    2012-04-01

    With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

  8. A Bayesian Nonparametric Meta-Analysis Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karabatsos, George; Talbott, Elizabeth; Walker, Stephen G.

    2015-01-01

    In a meta-analysis, it is important to specify a model that adequately describes the effect-size distribution of the underlying population of studies. The conventional normal fixed-effect and normal random-effects models assume a normal effect-size population distribution, conditionally on parameters and covariates. For estimating the mean overall…

  9. AIC, BIC, Bayesian evidence against the interacting dark energy model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szydlowski, Marek [Jagiellonian University, Astronomical Observatory, Krakow (Poland); Jagiellonian University, Mark Kac Complex Systems Research Centre, Krakow (Poland); Krawiec, Adam [Jagiellonian University, Institute of Economics, Finance and Management, Krakow (Poland); Jagiellonian University, Mark Kac Complex Systems Research Centre, Krakow (Poland); Kurek, Aleksandra [Jagiellonian University, Astronomical Observatory, Krakow (Poland); Kamionka, Michal [University of Wroclaw, Astronomical Institute, Wroclaw (Poland)

    2015-01-01

    Recent astronomical observations have indicated that the Universe is in a phase of accelerated expansion. While there are many cosmological models which try to explain this phenomenon, we focus on the interacting ΛCDM model where an interaction between the dark energy and dark matter sectors takes place. This model is compared to its simpler alternative - the ΛCDM model. To choose between these models the likelihood ratio test was applied as well as the model comparison methods (employing Occam's principle): the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Bayesian evidence. Using the current astronomical data: type Ia supernova (Union2.1), h(z), baryon acoustic oscillation, the Alcock- Paczynski test, and the cosmic microwave background data, we evaluated both models. The analyses based on the AIC indicated that there is less support for the interacting ΛCDM model when compared to the ΛCDM model, while those based on the BIC indicated that there is strong evidence against it in favor of the ΛCDM model. Given the weak or almost non-existing support for the interacting ΛCDM model and bearing in mind Occam's razor we are inclined to reject this model. (orig.)

  10. AIC, BIC, Bayesian evidence against the interacting dark energy model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szydłowski, Marek, E-mail: marek.szydlowski@uj.edu.pl [Astronomical Observatory, Jagiellonian University, Orla 171, 30-244, Kraków (Poland); Mark Kac Complex Systems Research Centre, Jagiellonian University, Reymonta 4, 30-059, Kraków (Poland); Krawiec, Adam, E-mail: adam.krawiec@uj.edu.pl [Institute of Economics, Finance and Management, Jagiellonian University, Łojasiewicza 4, 30-348, Kraków (Poland); Mark Kac Complex Systems Research Centre, Jagiellonian University, Reymonta 4, 30-059, Kraków (Poland); Kurek, Aleksandra, E-mail: alex@oa.uj.edu.pl [Astronomical Observatory, Jagiellonian University, Orla 171, 30-244, Kraków (Poland); Kamionka, Michał, E-mail: kamionka@astro.uni.wroc.pl [Astronomical Institute, University of Wrocław, ul. Kopernika 11, 51-622, Wrocław (Poland)

    2015-01-14

    Recent astronomical observations have indicated that the Universe is in a phase of accelerated expansion. While there are many cosmological models which try to explain this phenomenon, we focus on the interacting ΛCDM model where an interaction between the dark energy and dark matter sectors takes place. This model is compared to its simpler alternative—the ΛCDM model. To choose between these models the likelihood ratio test was applied as well as the model comparison methods (employing Occam’s principle): the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Bayesian evidence. Using the current astronomical data: type Ia supernova (Union2.1), h(z), baryon acoustic oscillation, the Alcock–Paczynski test, and the cosmic microwave background data, we evaluated both models. The analyses based on the AIC indicated that there is less support for the interacting ΛCDM model when compared to the ΛCDM model, while those based on the BIC indicated that there is strong evidence against it in favor of the ΛCDM model. Given the weak or almost non-existing support for the interacting ΛCDM model and bearing in mind Occam’s razor we are inclined to reject this model.

  11. AIC, BIC, Bayesian evidence against the interacting dark energy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szydlowski, Marek; Krawiec, Adam; Kurek, Aleksandra; Kamionka, Michal

    2015-01-01

    Recent astronomical observations have indicated that the Universe is in a phase of accelerated expansion. While there are many cosmological models which try to explain this phenomenon, we focus on the interacting ΛCDM model where an interaction between the dark energy and dark matter sectors takes place. This model is compared to its simpler alternative - the ΛCDM model. To choose between these models the likelihood ratio test was applied as well as the model comparison methods (employing Occam's principle): the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Bayesian evidence. Using the current astronomical data: type Ia supernova (Union2.1), h(z), baryon acoustic oscillation, the Alcock- Paczynski test, and the cosmic microwave background data, we evaluated both models. The analyses based on the AIC indicated that there is less support for the interacting ΛCDM model when compared to the ΛCDM model, while those based on the BIC indicated that there is strong evidence against it in favor of the ΛCDM model. Given the weak or almost non-existing support for the interacting ΛCDM model and bearing in mind Occam's razor we are inclined to reject this model. (orig.)

  12. Bayesian spatial prediction of the site index in the study of the Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaoqian Sun; Zhuoqiong He; John Kabrick

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a Bayesian spatial method for analysing the site index data from the Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Project (MOFEP). Based on ecological background and availability, we select three variables, the aspect class, the soil depth and the land type association as covariates for analysis. To allow great flexibility of the smoothness of the random field,...

  13. Towards port sustainability through probabilistic models: Bayesian networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Molina

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available It is necessary that a manager of an infrastructure knows relations between variables. Using Bayesian networks, variables can be classified, predicted and diagnosed, being able to estimate posterior probability of the unknown ones based on known ones. The proposed methodology has generated a database with port variables, which have been classified as economic, social, environmental and institutional, as addressed in of smart ports studies made in all Spanish Port System. Network has been developed using an acyclic directed graph, which have let us know relationships in terms of parents and sons. In probabilistic terms, it can be concluded from the constructed network that the most decisive variables for port sustainability are those that are part of the institutional dimension. It has been concluded that Bayesian networks allow modeling uncertainty probabilistically even when the number of variables is high as it occurs in port planning and exploitation.

  14. Models and Inference for Multivariate Spatial Extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Vettori, Sabrina

    2017-12-07

    The development of flexible and interpretable statistical methods is necessary in order to provide appropriate risk assessment measures for extreme events and natural disasters. In this thesis, we address this challenge by contributing to the developing research field of Extreme-Value Theory. We initially study the performance of existing parametric and non-parametric estimators of extremal dependence for multivariate maxima. As the dimensionality increases, non-parametric estimators are more flexible than parametric methods but present some loss in efficiency that we quantify under various scenarios. We introduce a statistical tool which imposes the required shape constraints on non-parametric estimators in high dimensions, significantly improving their performance. Furthermore, by embedding the tree-based max-stable nested logistic distribution in the Bayesian framework, we develop a statistical algorithm that identifies the most likely tree structures representing the data\\'s extremal dependence using the reversible jump Monte Carlo Markov Chain method. A mixture of these trees is then used for uncertainty assessment in prediction through Bayesian model averaging. The computational complexity of full likelihood inference is significantly decreased by deriving a recursive formula for the nested logistic model likelihood. The algorithm performance is verified through simulation experiments which also compare different likelihood procedures. Finally, we extend the nested logistic representation to the spatial framework in order to jointly model multivariate variables collected across a spatial region. This situation emerges often in environmental applications but is not often considered in the current literature. Simulation experiments show that the new class of multivariate max-stable processes is able to detect both the cross and inner spatial dependence of a number of extreme variables at a relatively low computational cost, thanks to its Bayesian hierarchical

  15. Dynamic model based on Bayesian method for energy security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Augutis, Juozas; Krikštolaitis, Ričardas; Pečiulytė, Sigita; Žutautaitė, Inga

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Methodology for dynamic indicator model construction and forecasting of indicators. • Application of dynamic indicator model for energy system development scenarios. • Expert judgement involvement using Bayesian method. - Abstract: The methodology for the dynamic indicator model construction and forecasting of indicators for the assessment of energy security level is presented in this article. An indicator is a special index, which provides numerical values to important factors for the investigated area. In real life, models of different processes take into account various factors that are time-dependent and dependent on each other. Thus, it is advisable to construct a dynamic model in order to describe these dependences. The energy security indicators are used as factors in the dynamic model. Usually, the values of indicators are obtained from statistical data. The developed dynamic model enables to forecast indicators’ variation taking into account changes in system configuration. The energy system development is usually based on a new object construction. Since the parameters of changes of the new system are not exactly known, information about their influences on indicators could not be involved in the model by deterministic methods. Thus, dynamic indicators’ model based on historical data is adjusted by probabilistic model with the influence of new factors on indicators using the Bayesian method

  16. Bayesian model discrimination for glucose-insulin homeostasis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Kim Emil; Brooks, Stephen P.; Højbjerre, Malene

    In this paper we analyse a set of experimental data on a number of healthy and diabetic patients and discuss a variety of models for describing the physiological processes involved in glucose absorption and insulin secretion within the human body. We adopt a Bayesian approach which facilitates...... as parameter uncertainty. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used, combining Metropolis Hastings, reversible jump and simulated tempering updates to provide rapidly mixing chains so as to provide robust inference. We demonstrate the methodology for both healthy and type II diabetic populations concluding...... that whilst both populations are well modelled by a common insulin model, their glucose dynamics differ considerably....

  17. Bayesian modeling to paired comparison data via the Pareto distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasir Abbas

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A probabilistic approach to build models for paired comparison experiments based on the comparison of two Pareto variables is considered. Analysis of the proposed model is carried out in classical as well as Bayesian frameworks. Informative and uninformative priors are employed to accommodate the prior information. Simulation study is conducted to assess the suitablily and performance of the model under theoretical conditions. Appropriateness of fit of the is also carried out. Entire inferential procedure is illustrated by comparing certain cricket teams using real dataset.

  18. Manual hierarchical clustering of regional geochemical data using a Bayesian finite mixture model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellefsen, Karl J.; Smith, David B.

    2016-01-01

    Interpretation of regional scale, multivariate geochemical data is aided by a statistical technique called “clustering.” We investigate a particular clustering procedure by applying it to geochemical data collected in the State of Colorado, United States of America. The clustering procedure partitions the field samples for the entire survey area into two clusters. The field samples in each cluster are partitioned again to create two subclusters, and so on. This manual procedure generates a hierarchy of clusters, and the different levels of the hierarchy show geochemical and geological processes occurring at different spatial scales. Although there are many different clustering methods, we use Bayesian finite mixture modeling with two probability distributions, which yields two clusters. The model parameters are estimated with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability density function, which usually has multiple modes. Each mode has its own set of model parameters; each set is checked to ensure that it is consistent both with the data and with independent geologic knowledge. The set of model parameters that is most consistent with the independent geologic knowledge is selected for detailed interpretation and partitioning of the field samples. - Highlights: • We evaluate a clustering procedure by applying it to geochemical data. • The procedure generates a hierarchy of clusters. • Different levels of the hierarchy show geochemical processes at different spatial scales. • The clustering method is Bayesian finite mixture modeling. • Model parameters are estimated with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling.

  19. Bayesian inference and model comparison for metallic fatigue data

    KAUST Repository

    Babuška, Ivo

    2016-02-23

    In this work, we present a statistical treatment of stress-life (S-N) data drawn from a collection of records of fatigue experiments that were performed on 75S-T6 aluminum alloys. Our main objective is to predict the fatigue life of materials by providing a systematic approach to model calibration, model selection and model ranking with reference to S-N data. To this purpose, we consider fatigue-limit models and random fatigue-limit models that are specially designed to allow the treatment of the run-outs (right-censored data). We first fit the models to the data by maximum likelihood methods and estimate the quantiles of the life distribution of the alloy specimen. To assess the robustness of the estimation of the quantile functions, we obtain bootstrap confidence bands by stratified resampling with respect to the cycle ratio. We then compare and rank the models by classical measures of fit based on information criteria. We also consider a Bayesian approach that provides, under the prior distribution of the model parameters selected by the user, their simulation-based posterior distributions. We implement and apply Bayesian model comparison methods, such as Bayes factor ranking and predictive information criteria based on cross-validation techniques under various a priori scenarios.

  20. Bayesian inference and model comparison for metallic fatigue data

    KAUST Repository

    Babuška, Ivo; Sawlan, Zaid A; Scavino, Marco; Szabó , Barna; Tempone, Raul

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we present a statistical treatment of stress-life (S-N) data drawn from a collection of records of fatigue experiments that were performed on 75S-T6 aluminum alloys. Our main objective is to predict the fatigue life of materials by providing a systematic approach to model calibration, model selection and model ranking with reference to S-N data. To this purpose, we consider fatigue-limit models and random fatigue-limit models that are specially designed to allow the treatment of the run-outs (right-censored data). We first fit the models to the data by maximum likelihood methods and estimate the quantiles of the life distribution of the alloy specimen. To assess the robustness of the estimation of the quantile functions, we obtain bootstrap confidence bands by stratified resampling with respect to the cycle ratio. We then compare and rank the models by classical measures of fit based on information criteria. We also consider a Bayesian approach that provides, under the prior distribution of the model parameters selected by the user, their simulation-based posterior distributions. We implement and apply Bayesian model comparison methods, such as Bayes factor ranking and predictive information criteria based on cross-validation techniques under various a priori scenarios.

  1. Theoretical aspects of spatial-temporal modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Matsui, Tomoko

    2015-01-01

    This book provides a modern introductory tutorial on specialized theoretical aspects of spatial and temporal modeling. The areas covered involve a range of topics which reflect the diversity of this domain of research across a number of quantitative disciplines. For instance, the first chapter provides up-to-date coverage of particle association measures that underpin the theoretical properties of recently developed random set methods in space and time otherwise known as the class of probability hypothesis density framework (PHD filters). The second chapter gives an overview of recent advances in Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian filtering in high-dimensional spaces. In particular, the chapter explains how one may extend classical sequential Monte Carlo methods for filtering and static inference problems to high dimensions and big-data applications. The third chapter presents an overview of generalized families of processes that extend the class of Gaussian process models to heavy-tailed families known as alph...

  2. DPpackage: Bayesian Semi- and Nonparametric Modeling in R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Jara

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Data analysis sometimes requires the relaxation of parametric assumptions in order to gain modeling flexibility and robustness against mis-specification of the probability model. In the Bayesian context, this is accomplished by placing a prior distribution on a function space, such as the space of all probability distributions or the space of all regression functions. Unfortunately, posterior distributions ranging over function spaces are highly complex and hence sampling methods play a key role. This paper provides an introduction to a simple, yet comprehensive, set of programs for the implementation of some Bayesian nonparametric and semiparametric models in R, DPpackage. Currently, DPpackage includes models for marginal and conditional density estimation, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, interval-censored data, binary regression data, item response data, longitudinal and clustered data using generalized linear mixed models, and regression data using generalized additive models. The package also contains functions to compute pseudo-Bayes factors for model comparison and for eliciting the precision parameter of the Dirichlet process prior, and a general purpose Metropolis sampling algorithm. To maximize computational efficiency, the actual sampling for each model is carried out using compiled C, C++ or Fortran code.

  3. A Bayesian approach for quantification of model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Inseok; Amarchinta, Hemanth K.; Grandhi, Ramana V.

    2010-01-01

    In most engineering problems, more than one model can be created to represent an engineering system's behavior. Uncertainty is inevitably involved in selecting the best model from among the models that are possible. Uncertainty in model selection cannot be ignored, especially when the differences between the predictions of competing models are significant. In this research, a methodology is proposed to quantify model uncertainty using measured differences between experimental data and model outcomes under a Bayesian statistical framework. The adjustment factor approach is used to propagate model uncertainty into prediction of a system response. A nonlinear vibration system is used to demonstrate the processes for implementing the adjustment factor approach. Finally, the methodology is applied on the engineering benefits of a laser peening process, and a confidence band for residual stresses is established to indicate the reliability of model prediction.

  4. Two Bayesian tests of the GLOMOsys Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Sarahanne M; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Newell, Ben R; Zeelenberg, René; van Ravenzwaaij, Don

    2016-12-01

    Priming is arguably one of the key phenomena in contemporary social psychology. Recent retractions and failed replication attempts have led to a division in the field between proponents and skeptics and have reinforced the importance of confirming certain priming effects through replication. In this study, we describe the results of 2 preregistered replication attempts of 1 experiment by Förster and Denzler (2012). In both experiments, participants first processed letters either globally or locally, then were tested using a typicality rating task. Bayes factor hypothesis tests were conducted for both experiments: Experiment 1 (N = 100) yielded an indecisive Bayes factor of 1.38, indicating that the in-lab data are 1.38 times more likely to have occurred under the null hypothesis than under the alternative. Experiment 2 (N = 908) yielded a Bayes factor of 10.84, indicating strong support for the null hypothesis that global priming does not affect participants' mean typicality ratings. The failure to replicate this priming effect challenges existing support for the GLOMO sys model. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Bayesian Modeling of Air Pollution Extremes Using Nested Multivariate Max-Stable Processes

    KAUST Repository

    Vettori, Sabrina; Huser, Raphaë l; Genton, Marc G.

    2018-01-01

    Capturing the potentially strong dependence among the peak concentrations of multiple air pollutants across a spatial region is crucial for assessing the related public health risks. In order to investigate the multivariate spatial dependence properties of air pollution extremes, we introduce a new class of multivariate max-stable processes. Our proposed model admits a hierarchical tree-based formulation, in which the data are conditionally independent given some latent nested $\\alpha$-stable random factors. The hierarchical structure facilitates Bayesian inference and offers a convenient and interpretable characterization. We fit this nested multivariate max-stable model to the maxima of air pollution concentrations and temperatures recorded at a number of sites in the Los Angeles area, showing that the proposed model succeeds in capturing their complex tail dependence structure.

  6. Bayesian Modeling of Air Pollution Extremes Using Nested Multivariate Max-Stable Processes

    KAUST Repository

    Vettori, Sabrina

    2018-03-18

    Capturing the potentially strong dependence among the peak concentrations of multiple air pollutants across a spatial region is crucial for assessing the related public health risks. In order to investigate the multivariate spatial dependence properties of air pollution extremes, we introduce a new class of multivariate max-stable processes. Our proposed model admits a hierarchical tree-based formulation, in which the data are conditionally independent given some latent nested $\\\\alpha$-stable random factors. The hierarchical structure facilitates Bayesian inference and offers a convenient and interpretable characterization. We fit this nested multivariate max-stable model to the maxima of air pollution concentrations and temperatures recorded at a number of sites in the Los Angeles area, showing that the proposed model succeeds in capturing their complex tail dependence structure.

  7. A Bayesian localized conditional autoregressive model for estimating the health effects of air pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Duncan; Rushworth, Alastair; Sahu, Sujit K

    2014-06-01

    Estimation of the long-term health effects of air pollution is a challenging task, especially when modeling spatial small-area disease incidence data in an ecological study design. The challenge comes from the unobserved underlying spatial autocorrelation structure in these data, which is accounted for using random effects modeled by a globally smooth conditional autoregressive model. These smooth random effects confound the effects of air pollution, which are also globally smooth. To avoid this collinearity a Bayesian localized conditional autoregressive model is developed for the random effects. This localized model is flexible spatially, in the sense that it is not only able to model areas of spatial smoothness, but also it is able to capture step changes in the random effects surface. This methodological development allows us to improve the estimation performance of the covariate effects, compared to using traditional conditional auto-regressive models. These results are established using a simulation study, and are then illustrated with our motivating study on air pollution and respiratory ill health in Greater Glasgow, Scotland in 2011. The model shows substantial health effects of particulate matter air pollution and nitrogen dioxide, whose effects have been consistently attenuated by the currently available globally smooth models. © 2014, The Authors Biometrics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Biometric Society.

  8. Modeling Women's Menstrual Cycles using PICI Gates in Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagorecki, Adam; Łupińska-Dubicka, Anna; Voortman, Mark; Druzdzel, Marek J

    2016-03-01

    A major difficulty in building Bayesian network (BN) models is the size of conditional probability tables, which grow exponentially in the number of parents. One way of dealing with this problem is through parametric conditional probability distributions that usually require only a number of parameters that is linear in the number of parents. In this paper, we introduce a new class of parametric models, the Probabilistic Independence of Causal Influences (PICI) models, that aim at lowering the number of parameters required to specify local probability distributions, but are still capable of efficiently modeling a variety of interactions. A subset of PICI models is decomposable and this leads to significantly faster inference as compared to models that cannot be decomposed. We present an application of the proposed method to learning dynamic BNs for modeling a woman's menstrual cycle. We show that PICI models are especially useful for parameter learning from small data sets and lead to higher parameter accuracy than when learning CPTs.

  9. Robust Bayesian Experimental Design for Conceptual Model Discrimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, H. V.; Tsai, F. T. C.

    2015-12-01

    A robust Bayesian optimal experimental design under uncertainty is presented to provide firm information for model discrimination, given the least number of pumping wells and observation wells. Firm information is the maximum information of a system can be guaranteed from an experimental design. The design is based on the Box-Hill expected entropy decrease (EED) before and after the experiment design and the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) framework. A max-min programming is introduced to choose the robust design that maximizes the minimal Box-Hill EED subject to that the highest expected posterior model probability satisfies a desired probability threshold. The EED is calculated by the Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The BMA method is used to predict future observations and to quantify future observation uncertainty arising from conceptual and parametric uncertainties in calculating EED. Monte Carlo approach is adopted to quantify the uncertainty in the posterior model probabilities. The optimal experimental design is tested by a synthetic 5-layer anisotropic confined aquifer. Nine conceptual groundwater models are constructed due to uncertain geological architecture and boundary condition. High-performance computing is used to enumerate all possible design solutions in order to identify the most plausible groundwater model. Results highlight the impacts of scedasticity in future observation data as well as uncertainty sources on potential pumping and observation locations.

  10. Macroeconomic Forecasts in Models with Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Białowolski

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to construct a forecasting model oriented on predicting basic macroeconomic variables, namely: the GDP growth rate, the unemployment rate, and the consumer price inflation. In order to select the set of the best regressors, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimators (BACE is employed. The models are atheoretical (i.e. they do not reflect causal relationships postulated by the macroeconomic theory and the role of regressors is played by business and consumer tendency survey-based indicators. Additionally, survey-based indicators are included with a lag that enables to forecast the variables of interest (GDP, unemployment, and inflation for the four forthcoming quarters without the need to make any additional assumptions concerning the values of predictor variables in the forecast period.  Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimators is a method allowing for full and controlled overview of all econometric models which can be obtained out of a particular set of regressors. In this paper authors describe the method of generating a family of econometric models and the procedure for selection of a final forecasting model. Verification of the procedure is performed by means of out-of-sample forecasts of main economic variables for the quarters of 2011. The accuracy of the forecasts implies that there is still a need to search for new solutions in the atheoretical modelling.

  11. Marginal Bayesian nonparametric model for time to disease arrival of threatened amphibian populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Haiming; Hanson, Timothy; Knapp, Roland

    2015-12-01

    The global emergence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused the extinction of hundreds of amphibian species worldwide. It has become increasingly important to be able to precisely predict time to Bd arrival in a population. The data analyzed herein present a unique challenge in terms of modeling because there is a strong spatial component to Bd arrival time and the traditional proportional hazards assumption is grossly violated. To address these concerns, we develop a novel marginal Bayesian nonparametric survival model for spatially correlated right-censored data. This class of models assumes that the logarithm of survival times marginally follow a mixture of normal densities with a linear-dependent Dirichlet process prior as the random mixing measure, and their joint distribution is induced by a Gaussian copula model with a spatial correlation structure. To invert high-dimensional spatial correlation matrices, we adopt a full-scale approximation that can capture both large- and small-scale spatial dependence. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm with delayed rejection is proposed for posterior computation, and an R package spBayesSurv is provided to fit the model. This approach is first evaluated through simulations, then applied to threatened frog populations in Sequoia-Kings Canyon National Park. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  12. Modeling operational risks of the nuclear industry with Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieland, Patricia; Lustosa, Leonardo J.

    2009-01-01

    Basically, planning a new industrial plant requires information on the industrial management, regulations, site selection, definition of initial and planned capacity, and on the estimation of the potential demand. However, this is far from enough to assure the success of an industrial enterprise. Unexpected and extremely damaging events may occur that deviates from the original plan. The so-called operational risks are not only in the system, equipment, process or human (technical or managerial) failures. They are also in intentional events such as frauds and sabotage, or extreme events like terrorist attacks or radiological accidents and even on public reaction to perceived environmental or future generation impacts. For the nuclear industry, it is a challenge to identify and to assess the operational risks and their various sources. Early identification of operational risks can help in preparing contingency plans, to delay the decision to invest or to approve a project that can, at an extreme, affect the public perception of the nuclear energy. A major problem in modeling operational risk losses is the lack of internal data that are essential, for example, to apply the loss distribution approach. As an alternative, methods that consider qualitative and subjective information can be applied, for example, fuzzy logic, neural networks, system dynamic or Bayesian networks. An advantage of applying Bayesian networks to model operational risk is the possibility to include expert opinions and variables of interest, to structure the model via causal dependencies among these variables, and to specify subjective prior and conditional probabilities distributions at each step or network node. This paper suggests a classification of operational risks in industry and discusses the benefits and obstacles of the Bayesian networks approach to model those risks. (author)

  13. Modeling operational risks of the nuclear industry with Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wieland, Patricia [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Industrial; Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], e-mail: pwieland@cnen.gov.br; Lustosa, Leonardo J. [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Industrial], e-mail: ljl@puc-rio.br

    2009-07-01

    Basically, planning a new industrial plant requires information on the industrial management, regulations, site selection, definition of initial and planned capacity, and on the estimation of the potential demand. However, this is far from enough to assure the success of an industrial enterprise. Unexpected and extremely damaging events may occur that deviates from the original plan. The so-called operational risks are not only in the system, equipment, process or human (technical or managerial) failures. They are also in intentional events such as frauds and sabotage, or extreme events like terrorist attacks or radiological accidents and even on public reaction to perceived environmental or future generation impacts. For the nuclear industry, it is a challenge to identify and to assess the operational risks and their various sources. Early identification of operational risks can help in preparing contingency plans, to delay the decision to invest or to approve a project that can, at an extreme, affect the public perception of the nuclear energy. A major problem in modeling operational risk losses is the lack of internal data that are essential, for example, to apply the loss distribution approach. As an alternative, methods that consider qualitative and subjective information can be applied, for example, fuzzy logic, neural networks, system dynamic or Bayesian networks. An advantage of applying Bayesian networks to model operational risk is the possibility to include expert opinions and variables of interest, to structure the model via causal dependencies among these variables, and to specify subjective prior and conditional probabilities distributions at each step or network node. This paper suggests a classification of operational risks in industry and discusses the benefits and obstacles of the Bayesian networks approach to model those risks. (author)

  14. Bayesian modeling of the mass and density of asteroids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dotson, Jessie L.; Mathias, Donovan

    2017-10-01

    Mass and density are two of the fundamental properties of any object. In the case of near earth asteroids, knowledge about the mass of an asteroid is essential for estimating the risk due to (potential) impact and planning possible mitigation options. The density of an asteroid can illuminate the structure of the asteroid. A low density can be indicative of a rubble pile structure whereas a higher density can imply a monolith and/or higher metal content. The damage resulting from an impact of an asteroid with Earth depends on its interior structure in addition to its total mass, and as a result, density is a key parameter to understanding the risk of asteroid impact. Unfortunately, measuring the mass and density of asteroids is challenging and often results in measurements with large uncertainties. In the absence of mass / density measurements for a specific object, understanding the range and distribution of likely values can facilitate probabilistic assessments of structure and impact risk. Hierarchical Bayesian models have recently been developed to investigate the mass - radius relationship of exoplanets (Wolfgang, Rogers & Ford 2016) and to probabilistically forecast the mass of bodies large enough to establish hydrostatic equilibrium over a range of 9 orders of magnitude in mass (from planemos to main sequence stars; Chen & Kipping 2017). Here, we extend this approach to investigate the mass and densities of asteroids. Several candidate Bayesian models are presented, and their performance is assessed relative to a synthetic asteroid population. In addition, a preliminary Bayesian model for probablistically forecasting masses and densities of asteroids is presented. The forecasting model is conditioned on existing asteroid data and includes observational errors, hyper-parameter uncertainties and intrinsic scatter.

  15. Bayesian analysis for uncertainty estimation of a canopy transpiration model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanta, S.; Mackay, D. S.; Clayton, M. K.; Kruger, E. L.; Ewers, B. E.

    2007-04-01

    A Bayesian approach was used to fit a conceptual transpiration model to half-hourly transpiration rates for a sugar maple (Acer saccharum) stand collected over a 5-month period and probabilistically estimate its parameter and prediction uncertainties. The model used the Penman-Monteith equation with the Jarvis model for canopy conductance. This deterministic model was extended by adding a normally distributed error term. This extension enabled using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to sample the posterior parameter distributions. The residuals revealed approximate conformance to the assumption of normally distributed errors. However, minor systematic structures in the residuals at fine timescales suggested model changes that would potentially improve the modeling of transpiration. Results also indicated considerable uncertainties in the parameter and transpiration estimates. This simple methodology of uncertainty analysis would facilitate the deductive step during the development cycle of deterministic conceptual models by accounting for these uncertainties while drawing inferences from data.

  16. Optimizing Prediction Using Bayesian Model Averaging: Examples Using Large-Scale Educational Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David; Lee, Chansoon

    2018-01-01

    This article provides a review of Bayesian model averaging as a means of optimizing the predictive performance of common statistical models applied to large-scale educational assessments. The Bayesian framework recognizes that in addition to parameter uncertainty, there is uncertainty in the choice of models themselves. A Bayesian approach to addressing the problem of model uncertainty is the method of Bayesian model averaging. Bayesian model averaging searches the space of possible models for a set of submodels that satisfy certain scientific principles and then averages the coefficients across these submodels weighted by each model's posterior model probability (PMP). Using the weighted coefficients for prediction has been shown to yield optimal predictive performance according to certain scoring rules. We demonstrate the utility of Bayesian model averaging for prediction in education research with three examples: Bayesian regression analysis, Bayesian logistic regression, and a recently developed approach for Bayesian structural equation modeling. In each case, the model-averaged estimates are shown to yield better prediction of the outcome of interest than any submodel based on predictive coverage and the log-score rule. Implications for the design of large-scale assessments when the goal is optimal prediction in a policy context are discussed.

  17. Immigrant maternal depression and social networks. A multilevel Bayesian spatial logistic regression in South Western Sydney, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastwood, John G; Jalaludin, Bin B; Kemp, Lynn A; Phung, Hai N; Barnett, Bryanne E W

    2013-09-01

    The purpose is to explore the multilevel spatial distribution of depressive symptoms among migrant mothers in South Western Sydney and to identify any group level associations that could inform subsequent theory building and local public health interventions. Migrant mothers (n=7256) delivering in 2002 and 2003 were assessed at 2-3 weeks after delivery for risk factors for depressive symptoms. The binary outcome variables were Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale scores (EPDS) of >9 and >12. Individual level variables included were: financial income, self-reported maternal health, social support network, emotional support, practical support, baby trouble sleeping, baby demanding and baby not content. The group level variable reported here is aggregated social support networks. We used Bayesian hierarchical multilevel spatial modelling with conditional autoregression. Migrant mothers were at higher risk of having depressive symptoms if they lived in a community with predominantly Australian-born mothers and strong social capital as measured by aggregated social networks. These findings suggest that migrant mothers are socially isolated and current home visiting services should be strengthened for migrant mothers living in communities where they may have poor social networks. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  18. A study of finite mixture model: Bayesian approach on financial time series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-07-01

    Recently, statistician have emphasized on the fitting finite mixture model by using Bayesian method. Finite mixture model is a mixture of distributions in modeling a statistical distribution meanwhile Bayesian method is a statistical method that use to fit the mixture model. Bayesian method is being used widely because it has asymptotic properties which provide remarkable result. In addition, Bayesian method also shows consistency characteristic which means the parameter estimates are close to the predictive distributions. In the present paper, the number of components for mixture model is studied by using Bayesian Information Criterion. Identify the number of component is important because it may lead to an invalid result. Later, the Bayesian method is utilized to fit the k-component mixture model in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Lastly, the results showed that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for all selected countries.

  19. Airline Sustainability Modeling: A New Framework with Application of Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hashem Salarzadeh Jenatabadi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available There are many factors which could influence the sustainability of airlines. The main purpose of this study is to introduce a framework for a financial sustainability index and model it based on structural equation modeling (SEM with maximum likelihood and Bayesian predictors. The introduced framework includes economic performance, operational performance, cost performance, and financial performance. Based on both Bayesian SEM (Bayesian-SEM and Classical SEM (Classical-SEM, it was found that economic performance with both operational performance and cost performance are significantly related to the financial performance index. The four mathematical indices employed are root mean square error, coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error to compare the efficiency of Bayesian-SEM and Classical-SEM in predicting the airline financial performance. The outputs confirmed that the framework with Bayesian prediction delivered a good fit with the data, although the framework predicted with a Classical-SEM approach did not prepare a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between Classical and Bayesian predictions, as well as the potential advantages and caveats with the application of Bayesian approach in airline sustainability studies, are debated.

  20. From qualitative reasoning models to Bayesian-based learner modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milošević, U.; Bredeweg, B.; de Kleer, J.; Forbus, K.D.

    2010-01-01

    Assessing the knowledge of a student is a fundamental part of intelligent learning environments. We present a Bayesian network based approach to dealing with uncertainty when estimating a learner’s state of knowledge in the context of Qualitative Reasoning (QR). A proposal for a global architecture

  1. Development of a cyber security risk model using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Jinsoo; Son, Hanseong; Khalil ur, Rahman; Heo, Gyunyoung

    2015-01-01

    Cyber security is an emerging safety issue in the nuclear industry, especially in the instrumentation and control (I and C) field. To address the cyber security issue systematically, a model that can be used for cyber security evaluation is required. In this work, a cyber security risk model based on a Bayesian network is suggested for evaluating cyber security for nuclear facilities in an integrated manner. The suggested model enables the evaluation of both the procedural and technical aspects of cyber security, which are related to compliance with regulatory guides and system architectures, respectively. The activity-quality analysis model was developed to evaluate how well people and/or organizations comply with the regulatory guidance associated with cyber security. The architecture analysis model was created to evaluate vulnerabilities and mitigation measures with respect to their effect on cyber security. The two models are integrated into a single model, which is called the cyber security risk model, so that cyber security can be evaluated from procedural and technical viewpoints at the same time. The model was applied to evaluate the cyber security risk of the reactor protection system (RPS) of a research reactor and to demonstrate its usefulness and feasibility. - Highlights: • We developed the cyber security risk model can be find the weak point of cyber security integrated two cyber analysis models by using Bayesian Network. • One is the activity-quality model signifies how people and/or organization comply with the cyber security regulatory guide. • Other is the architecture model represents the probability of cyber-attack on RPS architecture. • The cyber security risk model can provide evidence that is able to determine the key element for cyber security for RPS of a research reactor

  2. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina eMoreira

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

  3. Prior Sensitivity Analysis in Default Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Erp, Sara; Mulder, Joris; Oberski, Daniel L

    2017-11-27

    Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) has recently gained popularity because it enables researchers to fit complex models and solve some of the issues often encountered in classical maximum likelihood estimation, such as nonconvergence and inadmissible solutions. An important component of any Bayesian analysis is the prior distribution of the unknown model parameters. Often, researchers rely on default priors, which are constructed in an automatic fashion without requiring substantive prior information. However, the prior can have a serious influence on the estimation of the model parameters, which affects the mean squared error, bias, coverage rates, and quantiles of the estimates. In this article, we investigate the performance of three different default priors: noninformative improper priors, vague proper priors, and empirical Bayes priors-with the latter being novel in the BSEM literature. Based on a simulation study, we find that these three default BSEM methods may perform very differently, especially with small samples. A careful prior sensitivity analysis is therefore needed when performing a default BSEM analysis. For this purpose, we provide a practical step-by-step guide for practitioners to conducting a prior sensitivity analysis in default BSEM. Our recommendations are illustrated using a well-known case study from the structural equation modeling literature, and all code for conducting the prior sensitivity analysis is available in the online supplemental materials. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. Bayesian semiparametric regression models to characterize molecular evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Datta Saheli

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Statistical models and methods that associate changes in the physicochemical properties of amino acids with natural selection at the molecular level typically do not take into account the correlations between such properties. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical regression model with a generalization of the Dirichlet process prior on the distribution of the regression coefficients that describes the relationship between the changes in amino acid distances and natural selection in protein-coding DNA sequence alignments. Results The Bayesian semiparametric approach is illustrated with simulated data and the abalone lysin sperm data. Our method identifies groups of properties which, for this particular dataset, have a similar effect on evolution. The model also provides nonparametric site-specific estimates for the strength of conservation of these properties. Conclusions The model described here is distinguished by its ability to handle a large number of amino acid properties simultaneously, while taking into account that such data can be correlated. The multi-level clustering ability of the model allows for appealing interpretations of the results in terms of properties that are roughly equivalent from the standpoint of molecular evolution.

  5. Experimental validation of a Bayesian model of visual acuity.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Dalimier, Eugénie

    2009-01-01

    Based on standard procedures used in optometry clinics, we compare measurements of visual acuity for 10 subjects (11 eyes tested) in the presence of natural ocular aberrations and different degrees of induced defocus, with the predictions given by a Bayesian model customized with aberrometric data of the eye. The absolute predictions of the model, without any adjustment, show good agreement with the experimental data, in terms of correlation and absolute error. The efficiency of the model is discussed in comparison with image quality metrics and other customized visual process models. An analysis of the importance and customization of each stage of the model is also given; it stresses the potential high predictive power from precise modeling of ocular and neural transfer functions.

  6. Estimation of spatially varying heat transfer coefficient from a flat plate with flush mounted heat sources using Bayesian inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakkareddy, Pradeep S.; Balaji, C.

    2016-09-01

    This paper employs the Bayesian based Metropolis Hasting - Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to solve inverse heat transfer problem of determining the spatially varying heat transfer coefficient from a flat plate with flush mounted discrete heat sources with measured temperatures at the bottom of the plate. The Nusselt number is assumed to be of the form Nu = aReb(x/l)c . To input reasonable values of ’a’ and ‘b’ into the inverse problem, first limited two dimensional conjugate convection simulations were done with Comsol. Based on the guidance from this different values of ‘a’ and ‘b’ are input to a computationally less complex problem of conjugate conduction in the flat plate (15mm thickness) and temperature distributions at the bottom of the plate which is a more convenient location for measuring the temperatures without disturbing the flow were obtained. Since the goal of this work is to demonstrate the eficiacy of the Bayesian approach to accurately retrieve ‘a’ and ‘b’, numerically generated temperatures with known values of ‘a’ and ‘b’ are treated as ‘surrogate’ experimental data. The inverse problem is then solved by repeatedly using the forward solutions together with the MH-MCMC aprroach. To speed up the estimation, the forward model is replaced by an artificial neural network. The mean, maximum-a-posteriori and standard deviation of the estimated parameters ‘a’ and ‘b’ are reported. The robustness of the proposed method is examined, by synthetically adding noise to the temperatures.

  7. Theory-based Bayesian models of inductive learning and reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Griffiths, Thomas L; Kemp, Charles

    2006-07-01

    Inductive inference allows humans to make powerful generalizations from sparse data when learning about word meanings, unobserved properties, causal relationships, and many other aspects of the world. Traditional accounts of induction emphasize either the power of statistical learning, or the importance of strong constraints from structured domain knowledge, intuitive theories or schemas. We argue that both components are necessary to explain the nature, use and acquisition of human knowledge, and we introduce a theory-based Bayesian framework for modeling inductive learning and reasoning as statistical inferences over structured knowledge representations.

  8. Factors affecting GEBV accuracy with single-step Bayesian models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Lei; Mrode, Raphael; Zhang, Shengli; Zhang, Qin; Li, Bugao; Liu, Jian-Feng

    2018-01-01

    A single-step approach to obtain genomic prediction was first proposed in 2009. Many studies have investigated the components of GEBV accuracy in genomic selection. However, it is still unclear how the population structure and the relationships between training and validation populations influence GEBV accuracy in terms of single-step analysis. Here, we explored the components of GEBV accuracy in single-step Bayesian analysis with a simulation study. Three scenarios with various numbers of QTL (5, 50, and 500) were simulated. Three models were implemented to analyze the simulated data: single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP; SSGBLUP), single-step BayesA (SS-BayesA), and single-step BayesB (SS-BayesB). According to our results, GEBV accuracy was influenced by the relationships between the training and validation populations more significantly for ungenotyped animals than for genotyped animals. SS-BayesA/BayesB showed an obvious advantage over SSGBLUP with the scenarios of 5 and 50 QTL. SS-BayesB model obtained the lowest accuracy with the 500 QTL in the simulation. SS-BayesA model was the most efficient and robust considering all QTL scenarios. Generally, both the relationships between training and validation populations and LD between markers and QTL contributed to GEBV accuracy in the single-step analysis, and the advantages of single-step Bayesian models were more apparent when the trait is controlled by fewer QTL.

  9. Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Tang, Niansheng

    2014-04-01

    Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures.

  10. Approximate Bayesian computation for forward modeling in cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akeret, Joël; Refregier, Alexandre; Amara, Adam; Seehars, Sebastian; Hasner, Caspar

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian inference is often used in cosmology and astrophysics to derive constraints on model parameters from observations. This approach relies on the ability to compute the likelihood of the data given a choice of model parameters. In many practical situations, the likelihood function may however be unavailable or intractable due to non-gaussian errors, non-linear measurements processes, or complex data formats such as catalogs and maps. In these cases, the simulation of mock data sets can often be made through forward modeling. We discuss how Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) can be used in these cases to derive an approximation to the posterior constraints using simulated data sets. This technique relies on the sampling of the parameter set, a distance metric to quantify the difference between the observation and the simulations and summary statistics to compress the information in the data. We first review the principles of ABC and discuss its implementation using a Population Monte-Carlo (PMC) algorithm and the Mahalanobis distance metric. We test the performance of the implementation using a Gaussian toy model. We then apply the ABC technique to the practical case of the calibration of image simulations for wide field cosmological surveys. We find that the ABC analysis is able to provide reliable parameter constraints for this problem and is therefore a promising technique for other applications in cosmology and astrophysics. Our implementation of the ABC PMC method is made available via a public code release

  11. On-line Bayesian model updating for structural health monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocchetta, Roberto; Broggi, Matteo; Huchet, Quentin; Patelli, Edoardo

    2018-03-01

    Fatigue induced cracks is a dangerous failure mechanism which affects mechanical components subject to alternating load cycles. System health monitoring should be adopted to identify cracks which can jeopardise the structure. Real-time damage detection may fail in the identification of the cracks due to different sources of uncertainty which have been poorly assessed or even fully neglected. In this paper, a novel efficient and robust procedure is used for the detection of cracks locations and lengths in mechanical components. A Bayesian model updating framework is employed, which allows accounting for relevant sources of uncertainty. The idea underpinning the approach is to identify the most probable crack consistent with the experimental measurements. To tackle the computational cost of the Bayesian approach an emulator is adopted for replacing the computationally costly Finite Element model. To improve the overall robustness of the procedure, different numerical likelihoods, measurement noises and imprecision in the value of model parameters are analysed and their effects quantified. The accuracy of the stochastic updating and the efficiency of the numerical procedure are discussed. An experimental aluminium frame and on a numerical model of a typical car suspension arm are used to demonstrate the applicability of the approach.

  12. Bayesian statistic methods and theri application in probabilistic simulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Iannazzo

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian statistic methods are facing a rapidly growing level of interest and acceptance in the field of health economics. The reasons of this success are probably to be found on the theoretical fundaments of the discipline that make these techniques more appealing to decision analysis. To this point should be added the modern IT progress that has developed different flexible and powerful statistical software framework. Among them probably one of the most noticeably is the BUGS language project and its standalone application for MS Windows WinBUGS. Scope of this paper is to introduce the subject and to show some interesting applications of WinBUGS in developing complex economical models based on Markov chains. The advantages of this approach reside on the elegance of the code produced and in its capability to easily develop probabilistic simulations. Moreover an example of the integration of bayesian inference models in a Markov model is shown. This last feature let the analyst conduce statistical analyses on the available sources of evidence and exploit them directly as inputs in the economic model.

  13. Bayesian calibration of power plant models for accurate performance prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boksteen, Sowande Z.; Buijtenen, Jos P. van; Pecnik, Rene; Vecht, Dick van der

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Bayesian calibration is applied to power plant performance prediction. • Measurements from a plant in operation are used for model calibration. • A gas turbine performance model and steam cycle model are calibrated. • An integrated plant model is derived. • Part load efficiency is accurately predicted as a function of ambient conditions. - Abstract: Gas turbine combined cycles are expected to play an increasingly important role in the balancing of supply and demand in future energy markets. Thermodynamic modeling of these energy systems is frequently applied to assist in decision making processes related to the management of plant operation and maintenance. In most cases, model inputs, parameters and outputs are treated as deterministic quantities and plant operators make decisions with limited or no regard of uncertainties. As the steady integration of wind and solar energy into the energy market induces extra uncertainties, part load operation and reliability are becoming increasingly important. In the current study, methods are proposed to not only quantify various types of uncertainties in measurements and plant model parameters using measured data, but to also assess their effect on various aspects of performance prediction. The authors aim to account for model parameter and measurement uncertainty, and for systematic discrepancy of models with respect to reality. For this purpose, the Bayesian calibration framework of Kennedy and O’Hagan is used, which is especially suitable for high-dimensional industrial problems. The article derives a calibrated model of the plant efficiency as a function of ambient conditions and operational parameters, which is also accurate in part load. The article shows that complete statistical modeling of power plants not only enhances process models, but can also increases confidence in operational decisions

  14. Bayesian spatiotemporal model of fMRI data using transfer functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quirós, Alicia; Diez, Raquel Montes; Wilson, Simon P

    2010-09-01

    This research describes a new Bayesian spatiotemporal model to analyse BOLD fMRI studies. In the temporal dimension, we describe the shape of the hemodynamic response function (HRF) with a transfer function model. The spatial continuity and local homogeneity of the evoked responses are modelled by a Gaussian Markov random field prior on the parameter indicating activations. The proposal constitutes an extension of the spatiotemporal model presented in a previous approach [Quirós, A., Montes Diez, R. and Gamerman, D., 2010. Bayesian spatiotemporal model of fMRI data, Neuroimage, 49: 442-456], offering more flexibility in the estimation of the HRF and computational advantages in the resulting MCMC algorithm. Simulations from the model are performed in order to ascertain the performance of the sampling scheme and the ability of the posterior to estimate model parameters, as well as to check the model sensitivity to signal to noise ratio. Results are shown on synthetic data and on a real data set from a block-design fMRI experiment. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Evaluation of spatio-temporal Bayesian models for the spread of infectious diseases in oil palm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denis, Marie; Cochard, Benoît; Syahputra, Indra; de Franqueville, Hubert; Tisné, Sébastien

    2018-02-01

    In the field of epidemiology, studies are often focused on mapping diseases in relation to time and space. Hierarchical modeling is a common flexible and effective tool for modeling problems related to disease spread. In the context of oil palm plantations infected by the fungal pathogen Ganoderma boninense, we propose and compare two spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian models addressing the lack of information on propagation modes and transmission vectors. We investigate two alternative process models to study the unobserved mechanism driving the infection process. The models help gain insight into the spatio-temporal dynamic of the infection by identifying a genetic component in the disease spread and by highlighting a spatial component acting at the end of the experiment. In this challenging context, we propose models that provide assumptions on the unobserved mechanism driving the infection process while making short-term predictions using ready-to-use software. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Model Selection in Historical Research Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubio-Campillo, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Formal Models and History Computational models are increasingly being used to study historical dynamics. This new trend, which could be named Model-Based History, makes use of recently published datasets and innovative quantitative methods to improve our understanding of past societies based on their written sources. The extensive use of formal models allows historians to re-evaluate hypotheses formulated decades ago and still subject to debate due to the lack of an adequate quantitative framework. The initiative has the potential to transform the discipline if it solves the challenges posed by the study of historical dynamics. These difficulties are based on the complexities of modelling social interaction, and the methodological issues raised by the evaluation of formal models against data with low sample size, high variance and strong fragmentation. Case Study This work examines an alternate approach to this evaluation based on a Bayesian-inspired model selection method. The validity of the classical Lanchester’s laws of combat is examined against a dataset comprising over a thousand battles spanning 300 years. Four variations of the basic equations are discussed, including the three most common formulations (linear, squared, and logarithmic) and a new variant introducing fatigue. Approximate Bayesian Computation is then used to infer both parameter values and model selection via Bayes Factors. Impact Results indicate decisive evidence favouring the new fatigue model. The interpretation of both parameter estimations and model selection provides new insights into the factors guiding the evolution of warfare. At a methodological level, the case study shows how model selection methods can be used to guide historical research through the comparison between existing hypotheses and empirical evidence. PMID:26730953

  17. An Active Lattice Model in a Bayesian Framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carstensen, Jens Michael

    1996-01-01

    A Markov Random Field is used as a structural model of a deformable rectangular lattice. When used as a template prior in a Bayesian framework this model is powerful for making inferences about lattice structures in images. The model assigns maximum probability to the perfect regular lattice...... by penalizing deviations in alignment and lattice node distance. The Markov random field represents prior knowledge about the lattice structure, and through an observation model that incorporates the visual appearance of the nodes, we can simulate realizations from the posterior distribution. A maximum...... a posteriori (MAP) estimate, found by simulated annealing, is used as the reconstructed lattice. The model was developed as a central part of an algorithm for automatic analylsis of genetic experiments, positioned in a lattice structure by a robot. The algorithm has been successfully applied to many images...

  18. Bayesian approach to errors-in-variables in regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozliman, Nur Aainaa; Ibrahim, Adriana Irawati Nur; Yunus, Rossita Mohammad

    2017-05-01

    In many applications and experiments, data sets are often contaminated with error or mismeasured covariates. When at least one of the covariates in a model is measured with error, Errors-in-Variables (EIV) model can be used. Measurement error, when not corrected, would cause misleading statistical inferences and analysis. Therefore, our goal is to examine the relationship of the outcome variable and the unobserved exposure variable given the observed mismeasured surrogate by applying the Bayesian formulation to the EIV model. We shall extend the flexible parametric method proposed by Hossain and Gustafson (2009) to another nonlinear regression model which is the Poisson regression model. We shall then illustrate the application of this approach via a simulation study using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods.

  19. Uncovering Transcriptional Regulatory Networks by Sparse Bayesian Factor Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Yuan(Alan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The problem of uncovering transcriptional regulation by transcription factors (TFs based on microarray data is considered. A novel Bayesian sparse correlated rectified factor model (BSCRFM is proposed that models the unknown TF protein level activity, the correlated regulations between TFs, and the sparse nature of TF-regulated genes. The model admits prior knowledge from existing database regarding TF-regulated target genes based on a sparse prior and through a developed Gibbs sampling algorithm, a context-specific transcriptional regulatory network specific to the experimental condition of the microarray data can be obtained. The proposed model and the Gibbs sampling algorithm were evaluated on the simulated systems, and results demonstrated the validity and effectiveness of the proposed approach. The proposed model was then applied to the breast cancer microarray data of patients with Estrogen Receptor positive ( status and Estrogen Receptor negative ( status, respectively.

  20. MODELING INFORMATION SYSTEM AVAILABILITY BY USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Semir Ibrahimović

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Modern information systems are expected to be always-on by providing services to end-users, regardless of time and location. This is particularly important for organizations and industries where information systems support real-time operations and mission-critical applications that need to be available on 24  7  365 basis. Examples of such entities include process industries, telecommunications, healthcare, energy, banking, electronic commerce and a variety of cloud services. This article presents a modified Bayesian Belief Network model for predicting information system availability, introduced initially by Franke, U. and Johnson, P. (in article “Availability of enterprise IT systems – an expert based Bayesian model”. Software Quality Journal 20(2, 369-394, 2012 based on a thorough review of several dimensions of the information system availability, we proposed a modified set of determinants. The model is parameterized by using probability elicitation process with the participation of experts from the financial sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The model validation was performed using Monte Carlo simulation.

  1. Bayesian Model Comparison With the g-Prior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Kjær; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Cemgil, Ali Taylan

    2014-01-01

    ’s asymptotic MAP rule was an improvement, and in this paper we extend the work by Djuric in several ways. Specifically, we consider the elicitation of proper prior distributions, treat the case of real- and complex-valued data simultaneously in a Bayesian framework similar to that considered by Djuric......, and develop new model selection rules for a regression model containing both linear and non-linear parameters. Moreover, we use this framework to give a new interpretation of the popular information criteria and relate their performance to the signal-to-noise ratio of the data. By use of simulations, we also...... demonstrate that our proposed model comparison and selection rules outperform the traditional information criteria both in terms of detecting the true model and in terms of predicting unobserved data. The simulation code is available online....

  2. Recursive Bayesian recurrent neural networks for time-series modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirikitani, Derrick T; Nikolaev, Nikolay

    2010-02-01

    This paper develops a probabilistic approach to recursive second-order training of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for improved time-series modeling. A general recursive Bayesian Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is derived to sequentially update the weights and the covariance (Hessian) matrix. The main strengths of the approach are a principled handling of the regularization hyperparameters that leads to better generalization, and stable numerical performance. The framework involves the adaptation of a noise hyperparameter and local weight prior hyperparameters, which represent the noise in the data and the uncertainties in the model parameters. Experimental investigations using artificial and real-world data sets show that RNNs equipped with the proposed approach outperform standard real-time recurrent learning and extended Kalman training algorithms for recurrent networks, as well as other contemporary nonlinear neural models, on time-series modeling.

  3. Bayesian Dose-Response Modeling in Sparse Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Steven B.

    This book discusses Bayesian dose-response modeling in small samples applied to two different settings. The first setting is early phase clinical trials, and the second setting is toxicology studies in cancer risk assessment. In early phase clinical trials, experimental units are humans who are actual patients. Prior to a clinical trial, opinions from multiple subject area experts are generally more informative than the opinion of a single expert, but we may face a dilemma when they have disagreeing prior opinions. In this regard, we consider compromising the disagreement and compare two different approaches for making a decision. In addition to combining multiple opinions, we also address balancing two levels of ethics in early phase clinical trials. The first level is individual-level ethics which reflects the perspective of trial participants. The second level is population-level ethics which reflects the perspective of future patients. We extensively compare two existing statistical methods which focus on each perspective and propose a new method which balances the two conflicting perspectives. In toxicology studies, experimental units are living animals. Here we focus on a potential non-monotonic dose-response relationship which is known as hormesis. Briefly, hormesis is a phenomenon which can be characterized by a beneficial effect at low doses and a harmful effect at high doses. In cancer risk assessments, the estimation of a parameter, which is known as a benchmark dose, can be highly sensitive to a class of assumptions, monotonicity or hormesis. In this regard, we propose a robust approach which considers both monotonicity and hormesis as a possibility. In addition, We discuss statistical hypothesis testing for hormesis and consider various experimental designs for detecting hormesis based on Bayesian decision theory. Past experiments have not been optimally designed for testing for hormesis, and some Bayesian optimal designs may not be optimal under a

  4. Bayesian uncertainty analysis with applications to turbulence modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheung, Sai Hung; Oliver, Todd A.; Prudencio, Ernesto E.; Prudhomme, Serge; Moser, Robert D.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we apply Bayesian uncertainty quantification techniques to the processes of calibrating complex mathematical models and predicting quantities of interest (QoI's) with such models. These techniques also enable the systematic comparison of competing model classes. The processes of calibration and comparison constitute the building blocks of a larger validation process, the goal of which is to accept or reject a given mathematical model for the prediction of a particular QoI for a particular scenario. In this work, we take the first step in this process by applying the methodology to the analysis of the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model in the context of incompressible, boundary layer flows. Three competing model classes based on the Spalart-Allmaras model are formulated, calibrated against experimental data, and used to issue a prediction with quantified uncertainty. The model classes are compared in terms of their posterior probabilities and their prediction of QoI's. The model posterior probability represents the relative plausibility of a model class given the data. Thus, it incorporates the model's ability to fit experimental observations. Alternatively, comparing models using the predicted QoI connects the process to the needs of decision makers that use the results of the model. We show that by using both the model plausibility and predicted QoI, one has the opportunity to reject some model classes after calibration, before subjecting the remaining classes to additional validation challenges.

  5. Optimal inference with suboptimal models: Addiction and active Bayesian inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H.B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Wurst, Friedrich; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl

    2015-01-01

    When casting behaviour as active (Bayesian) inference, optimal inference is defined with respect to an agent’s beliefs – based on its generative model of the world. This contrasts with normative accounts of choice behaviour, in which optimal actions are considered in relation to the true structure of the environment – as opposed to the agent’s beliefs about worldly states (or the task). This distinction shifts an understanding of suboptimal or pathological behaviour away from aberrant inference as such, to understanding the prior beliefs of a subject that cause them to behave less ‘optimally’ than our prior beliefs suggest they should behave. Put simply, suboptimal or pathological behaviour does not speak against understanding behaviour in terms of (Bayes optimal) inference, but rather calls for a more refined understanding of the subject’s generative model upon which their (optimal) Bayesian inference is based. Here, we discuss this fundamental distinction and its implications for understanding optimality, bounded rationality and pathological (choice) behaviour. We illustrate our argument using addictive choice behaviour in a recently described ‘limited offer’ task. Our simulations of pathological choices and addictive behaviour also generate some clear hypotheses, which we hope to pursue in ongoing empirical work. PMID:25561321

  6. Bayesian energy landscape tilting: towards concordant models of molecular ensembles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beauchamp, Kyle A; Pande, Vijay S; Das, Rhiju

    2014-03-18

    Predicting biological structure has remained challenging for systems such as disordered proteins that take on myriad conformations. Hybrid simulation/experiment strategies have been undermined by difficulties in evaluating errors from computational model inaccuracies and data uncertainties. Building on recent proposals from maximum entropy theory and nonequilibrium thermodynamics, we address these issues through a Bayesian energy landscape tilting (BELT) scheme for computing Bayesian hyperensembles over conformational ensembles. BELT uses Markov chain Monte Carlo to directly sample maximum-entropy conformational ensembles consistent with a set of input experimental observables. To test this framework, we apply BELT to model trialanine, starting from disagreeing simulations with the force fields ff96, ff99, ff99sbnmr-ildn, CHARMM27, and OPLS-AA. BELT incorporation of limited chemical shift and (3)J measurements gives convergent values of the peptide's α, β, and PPII conformational populations in all cases. As a test of predictive power, all five BELT hyperensembles recover set-aside measurements not used in the fitting and report accurate errors, even when starting from highly inaccurate simulations. BELT's principled framework thus enables practical predictions for complex biomolecular systems from discordant simulations and sparse data. Copyright © 2014 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Sparse linear models: Variational approximate inference and Bayesian experimental design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seeger, Matthias W

    2009-01-01

    A wide range of problems such as signal reconstruction, denoising, source separation, feature selection, and graphical model search are addressed today by posterior maximization for linear models with sparsity-favouring prior distributions. The Bayesian posterior contains useful information far beyond its mode, which can be used to drive methods for sampling optimization (active learning), feature relevance ranking, or hyperparameter estimation, if only this representation of uncertainty can be approximated in a tractable manner. In this paper, we review recent results for variational sparse inference, and show that they share underlying computational primitives. We discuss how sampling optimization can be implemented as sequential Bayesian experimental design. While there has been tremendous recent activity to develop sparse estimation, little attendance has been given to sparse approximate inference. In this paper, we argue that many problems in practice, such as compressive sensing for real-world image reconstruction, are served much better by proper uncertainty approximations than by ever more aggressive sparse estimation algorithms. Moreover, since some variational inference methods have been given strong convex optimization characterizations recently, theoretical analysis may become possible, promising new insights into nonlinear experimental design.

  8. Sparse linear models: Variational approximate inference and Bayesian experimental design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seeger, Matthias W [Saarland University and Max Planck Institute for Informatics, Campus E1.4, 66123 Saarbruecken (Germany)

    2009-12-01

    A wide range of problems such as signal reconstruction, denoising, source separation, feature selection, and graphical model search are addressed today by posterior maximization for linear models with sparsity-favouring prior distributions. The Bayesian posterior contains useful information far beyond its mode, which can be used to drive methods for sampling optimization (active learning), feature relevance ranking, or hyperparameter estimation, if only this representation of uncertainty can be approximated in a tractable manner. In this paper, we review recent results for variational sparse inference, and show that they share underlying computational primitives. We discuss how sampling optimization can be implemented as sequential Bayesian experimental design. While there has been tremendous recent activity to develop sparse estimation, little attendance has been given to sparse approximate inference. In this paper, we argue that many problems in practice, such as compressive sensing for real-world image reconstruction, are served much better by proper uncertainty approximations than by ever more aggressive sparse estimation algorithms. Moreover, since some variational inference methods have been given strong convex optimization characterizations recently, theoretical analysis may become possible, promising new insights into nonlinear experimental design.

  9. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  10. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Model of Lung Cancer Mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhikhari P. Tharu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background The objective of this study was to analyze the time trend for lung cancer mortality in the population of the USA by 5 years based on most recent available data namely to 2010. The knowledge of the mortality rates in the temporal trends is necessary to understand cancer burden.Methods Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was fitted using Poisson regression with histogram smoothing prior to decompose mortality rates based on age at death, period at death, and birth-cohort.Results Mortality rates from lung cancer increased more rapidly from age 52 years. It ended up to 325 deaths annually for 82 years on average. The mortality of younger cohorts was lower than older cohorts. The risk of lung cancer was lowered from period 1993 to recent periods.Conclusions The fitted Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model with histogram smoothing prior is capable of explaining mortality rate of lung cancer. The reduction in carcinogens in cigarettes and increase in smoking cessation from around 1960 might led to decreasing trend of lung cancer mortality after calendar period 1993.

  11. Development and comparison in uncertainty assessment based Bayesian modularization method in hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lu; Xu, Chong-Yu; Engeland, Kolbjørn

    2013-04-01

    SummaryWith respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, various regression and probabilistic approaches are used in hydrological modeling. A family of Bayesian methods, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayes' theorem, is widely used for uncertainty assessment. However, none of these approaches can well treat the impact of high flows in hydrological modeling. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization uncertainty assessment approach in which the highest streamflow observations are treated as suspect information that should not influence the inference of the main bulk of the model parameters. This study includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by our new Bayesian modularization method and standard Bayesian methods using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions were used in combination with standard Bayesian method: the AR(1) plus Normal model independent of time (Model 1), the AR(1) plus Normal model dependent on time (Model 2) and the AR(1) plus Multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that the Bayesian modularization method provides the most accurate streamflow estimates measured by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and provide the best in uncertainty estimates for low, medium and entire flows compared to standard Bayesian methods. The study thus provides a new approach for reducing the impact of high flows on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian method.

  12. Improving satellite-based PM2.5 estimates in China using Gaussian processes modeling in a Bayesian hierarchical setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wenxi; Liu, Yang; Ma, Zongwei; Bi, Jun

    2017-08-01

    Using satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements and statistical models to estimate ground-level PM 2.5 is a promising way to fill the areas that are not covered by ground PM 2.5 monitors. The statistical models used in previous studies are primarily Linear Mixed Effects (LME) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models. In this study, we developed a new regression model between PM 2.5 and AOD using Gaussian processes in a Bayesian hierarchical setting. Gaussian processes model the stochastic nature of the spatial random effects, where the mean surface and the covariance function is specified. The spatial stochastic process is incorporated under the Bayesian hierarchical framework to explain the variation of PM 2.5 concentrations together with other factors, such as AOD, spatial and non-spatial random effects. We evaluate the results of our model and compare them with those of other, conventional statistical models (GWR and LME) by within-sample model fitting and out-of-sample validation (cross validation, CV). The results show that our model possesses a CV result (R 2  = 0.81) that reflects higher accuracy than that of GWR and LME (0.74 and 0.48, respectively). Our results indicate that Gaussian process models have the potential to improve the accuracy of satellite-based PM 2.5 estimates.

  13. Thermodynamic Model of Spatial Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Miron; Allen, P.

    1998-03-01

    We develop and test a thermodynamic model of spatial memory. Our model is an application of statistical thermodynamics to cognitive science. It is related to applications of the statistical mechanics framework in parallel distributed processes research. Our macroscopic model allows us to evaluate an entropy associated with spatial memory tasks. We find that older adults exhibit higher levels of entropy than younger adults. Thurstone's Law of Categorical Judgment, according to which the discriminal processes along the psychological continuum produced by presentations of a single stimulus are normally distributed, is explained by using a Hooke spring model of spatial memory. We have also analyzed a nonlinear modification of the ideal spring model of spatial memory. This work is supported by NIH/NIA grant AG09282-06.

  14. Application of Bayesian Model Selection for Metal Yield Models using ALEGRA and Dakota.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Portone, Teresa; Niederhaus, John Henry; Sanchez, Jason James; Swiler, Laura Painton

    2018-02-01

    This report introduces the concepts of Bayesian model selection, which provides a systematic means of calibrating and selecting an optimal model to represent a phenomenon. This has many potential applications, including for comparing constitutive models. The ideas described herein are applied to a model selection problem between different yield models for hardened steel under extreme loading conditions.

  15. Aggregated Residential Load Modeling Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vlachopoulou, Maria; Chin, George; Fuller, Jason C.; Lu, Shuai

    2014-09-28

    Abstract—It is already obvious that the future power grid will have to address higher demand for power and energy, and to incorporate renewable resources of different energy generation patterns. Demand response (DR) schemes could successfully be used to manage and balance power supply and demand under operating conditions of the future power grid. To achieve that, more advanced tools for DR management of operations and planning are necessary that can estimate the available capacity from DR resources. In this research, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is derived, trained, and tested that can model aggregated load of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. DBNs can provide flexible and powerful tools for both operations and planing, due to their unique analytical capabilities. The DBN model accuracy and flexibility of use is demonstrated by testing the model under different operational scenarios.

  16. A Bayesian Analysis of Unobserved Component Models Using Ox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles S. Bos

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This article details a Bayesian analysis of the Nile river flow data, using a similar state space model as other articles in this volume. For this data set, Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs sampling algorithms are implemented in the programming language Ox. These Markov chain Monte Carlo methods only provide output conditioned upon the full data set. For filtered output, conditioning only on past observations, the particle filter is introduced. The sampling methods are flexible, and this advantage is used to extend the model to incorporate a stochastic volatility process. The volatility changes both in the Nile data and also in daily S&P 500 return data are investigated. The posterior density of parameters and states is found to provide information on which elements of the model are easily identifiable, and which elements are estimated with less precision.

  17. Fast Bayesian Inference in Dirichlet Process Mixture Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lianming; Dunson, David B

    2011-01-01

    There has been increasing interest in applying Bayesian nonparametric methods in large samples and high dimensions. As Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often infeasible, there is a pressing need for much faster algorithms. This article proposes a fast approach for inference in Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) models. Viewing the partitioning of subjects into clusters as a model selection problem, we propose a sequential greedy search algorithm for selecting the partition. Then, when conjugate priors are chosen, the resulting posterior conditionally on the selected partition is available in closed form. This approach allows testing of parametric models versus nonparametric alternatives based on Bayes factors. We evaluate the approach using simulation studies and compare it with four other fast nonparametric methods in the literature. We apply the proposed approach to three datasets including one from a large epidemiologic study. Matlab codes for the simulation and data analyses using the proposed approach are available online in the supplemental materials.

  18. Model-based dispersive wave processing: A recursive Bayesian solution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Candy, J.V.; Chambers, D.H.

    1999-01-01

    Wave propagation through dispersive media represents a significant problem in many acoustic applications, especially in ocean acoustics, seismology, and nondestructive evaluation. In this paper we propose a propagation model that can easily represent many classes of dispersive waves and proceed to develop the model-based solution to the wave processing problem. It is shown that the underlying wave system is nonlinear and time-variable requiring a recursive processor. Thus the general solution to the model-based dispersive wave enhancement problem is developed using a Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) approach and shown to lead to the recursive, nonlinear extended Kalman filter (EKF) processor. The problem of internal wave estimation is cast within this framework. The specific processor is developed and applied to data synthesized by a sophisticated simulator demonstrating the feasibility of this approach. copyright 1999 Acoustical Society of America.

  19. Advances in Bayesian Model Based Clustering Using Particle Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merl, D M

    2009-11-19

    Recent work by Carvalho, Johannes, Lopes and Polson and Carvalho, Lopes, Polson and Taddy introduced a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) alternative to traditional iterative Monte Carlo strategies (e.g. MCMC and EM) for Bayesian inference for a large class of dynamic models. The basis of SMC techniques involves representing the underlying inference problem as one of state space estimation, thus giving way to inference via particle filtering. The key insight of Carvalho et al was to construct the sequence of filtering distributions so as to make use of the posterior predictive distribution of the observable, a distribution usually only accessible in certain Bayesian settings. Access to this distribution allows a reversal of the usual propagate and resample steps characteristic of many SMC methods, thereby alleviating to a large extent many problems associated with particle degeneration. Furthermore, Carvalho et al point out that for many conjugate models the posterior distribution of the static variables can be parametrized in terms of [recursively defined] sufficient statistics of the previously observed data. For models where such sufficient statistics exist, particle learning as it is being called, is especially well suited for the analysis of streaming data do to the relative invariance of its algorithmic complexity with the number of data observations. Through a particle learning approach, a statistical model can be fit to data as the data is arriving, allowing at any instant during the observation process direct quantification of uncertainty surrounding underlying model parameters. Here we describe the use of a particle learning approach for fitting a standard Bayesian semiparametric mixture model as described in Carvalho, Lopes, Polson and Taddy. In Section 2 we briefly review the previously presented particle learning algorithm for the case of a Dirichlet process mixture of multivariate normals. In Section 3 we describe several novel extensions to the original

  20. Bayesian Geostatistical Modeling of Malaria Indicator Survey Data in Angola

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosoniu, Laura; Veta, Andre Mia; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2010-01-01

    The 2006–2007 Angola Malaria Indicator Survey (AMIS) is the first nationally representative household survey in the country assessing coverage of the key malaria control interventions and measuring malaria-related burden among children under 5 years of age. In this paper, the Angolan MIS data were analyzed to produce the first smooth map of parasitaemia prevalence based on contemporary nationwide empirical data in the country. Bayesian geostatistical models were fitted to assess the effect of interventions after adjusting for environmental, climatic and socio-economic factors. Non-linear relationships between parasitaemia risk and environmental predictors were modeled by categorizing the covariates and by employing two non-parametric approaches, the B-splines and the P-splines. The results of the model validation showed that the categorical model was able to better capture the relationship between parasitaemia prevalence and the environmental factors. Model fit and prediction were handled within a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Combining estimates of parasitaemia prevalence with the number of children under we obtained estimates of the number of infected children in the country. The population-adjusted prevalence ranges from in Namibe province to in Malanje province. The odds of parasitaemia in children living in a household with at least ITNs per person was by 41% lower (CI: 14%, 60%) than in those with fewer ITNs. The estimates of the number of parasitaemic children produced in this paper are important for planning and implementing malaria control interventions and for monitoring the impact of prevention and control activities. PMID:20351775

  1. Bayesian Geostatistical Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Diggle, Peter; Lophaven, Søren Nymand

    2006-01-01

    locations to, or deletion of locations from, an existing design, and prospective design, which consists of choosing positions for a new set of sampling locations. We propose a Bayesian design criterion which focuses on the goal of efficient spatial prediction whilst allowing for the fact that model...

  2. Evaluating Flight Crew Performance by a Bayesian Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Chen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Flight crew performance is of great significance in keeping flights safe and sound. When evaluating the crew performance, quantitative detailed behavior information may not be available. The present paper introduces the Bayesian Network to perform flight crew performance evaluation, which permits the utilization of multidisciplinary sources of objective and subjective information, despite sparse behavioral data. In this paper, the causal factors are selected based on the analysis of 484 aviation accidents caused by human factors. Then, a network termed Flight Crew Performance Model is constructed. The Delphi technique helps to gather subjective data as a supplement to objective data from accident reports. The conditional probabilities are elicited by the leaky noisy MAX model. Two ways of inference for the BN—probability prediction and probabilistic diagnosis are used and some interesting conclusions are drawn, which could provide data support to make interventions for human error management in aviation safety.

  3. GPU Computing in Bayesian Inference of Realized Stochastic Volatility Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2015-01-01

    The realized stochastic volatility (RSV) model that utilizes the realized volatility as additional information has been proposed to infer volatility of financial time series. We consider the Bayesian inference of the RSV model by the Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm. The HMC algorithm can be parallelized and thus performed on the GPU for speedup. The GPU code is developed with CUDA Fortran. We compare the computational time in performing the HMC algorithm on GPU (GTX 760) and CPU (Intel i7-4770 3.4GHz) and find that the GPU can be up to 17 times faster than the CPU. We also code the program with OpenACC and find that appropriate coding can achieve the similar speedup with CUDA Fortran

  4. Modelling of population dynamics of red king crab using Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakanev Sergey ...

    2012-10-01

    Modeling population dynamics based on the Bayesian approach enables to successfully resolve the above issues. The integration of the data from various studies into a unified model based on Bayesian parameter estimation method provides a much more detailed description of the processes occurring in the population.

  5. Inconsistency of Bayesian Inference for Misspecified Linear Models, and a Proposal for Repairing It

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grünwald, P.; van Ommen, T.

    2017-01-01

    We empirically show that Bayesian inference can be inconsistent under misspecification in simple linear regression problems, both in a model averaging/selection and in a Bayesian ridge regression setting. We use the standard linear model, which assumes homoskedasticity, whereas the data are

  6. Dynamic Bayesian Network Modeling of Game Based Diagnostic Assessments. CRESST Report 837

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Roy

    2014-01-01

    Digital games offer an appealing environment for assessing student proficiencies, including skills and misconceptions in a diagnostic setting. This paper proposes a dynamic Bayesian network modeling approach for observations of student performance from an educational video game. A Bayesian approach to model construction, calibration, and use in…

  7. Inconsistency of Bayesian inference for misspecified linear models, and a proposal for repairing it

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.D. Grünwald (Peter); T. van Ommen (Thijs)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractWe empirically show that Bayesian inference can be inconsistent under misspecification in simple linear regression problems, both in a model averaging/selection and in a Bayesian ridge regression setting. We use the standard linear model, which assumes homoskedasticity, whereas the data

  8. BDgraph: An R Package for Bayesian Structure Learning in Graphical Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mohammadi, A.; Wit, E.C.

    2017-01-01

    Graphical models provide powerful tools to uncover complicated patterns in multivariate data and are commonly used in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. In this paper, we introduce an R package BDgraph which performs Bayesian structure learning for general undirected graphical models with

  9. Bayesian hierarchical models for regional climate reconstructions of the last glacial maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weitzel, Nils; Hense, Andreas; Ohlwein, Christian

    2017-04-01

    Spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate are important for the understanding of the long term behavior of the climate system and the sensitivity to forcing changes. Unfortunately, they are subject to large uncertainties, have to deal with a complex proxy-climate structure, and a physically reasonable interpolation between the sparse proxy observations is difficult. Bayesian Hierarchical Models (BHMs) are a class of statistical models that is well suited for spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate because they permit the inclusion of multiple sources of information (e.g. records from different proxy types, uncertain age information, output from climate simulations) and quantify uncertainties in a statistically rigorous way. BHMs in paleoclimatology typically consist of three stages which are modeled individually and are combined using Bayesian inference techniques. The data stage models the proxy-climate relation (often named transfer function), the process stage models the spatio-temporal distribution of the climate variables of interest, and the prior stage consists of prior distributions of the model parameters. For our BHMs, we translate well-known proxy-climate transfer functions for pollen to a Bayesian framework. In addition, we can include Gaussian distributed local climate information from preprocessed proxy records. The process stage combines physically reasonable spatial structures from prior distributions with proxy records which leads to a multivariate posterior probability distribution for the reconstructed climate variables. The prior distributions that constrain the possible spatial structure of the climate variables are calculated from climate simulation output. We present results from pseudoproxy tests as well as new regional reconstructions of temperatures for the last glacial maximum (LGM, ˜ 21,000 years BP). These reconstructions combine proxy data syntheses with information from climate simulations for the LGM that were

  10. Sensitivity of fluvial sediment source apportionment to mixing model assumptions: A Bayesian model comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Richard J; Krueger, Tobias; Hiscock, Kevin M; Rawlins, Barry G

    2014-11-01

    Mixing models have become increasingly common tools for apportioning fluvial sediment load to various sediment sources across catchments using a wide variety of Bayesian and frequentist modeling approaches. In this study, we demonstrate how different model setups can impact upon resulting source apportionment estimates in a Bayesian framework via a one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) sensitivity analysis. We formulate 13 versions of a mixing model, each with different error assumptions and model structural choices, and apply them to sediment geochemistry data from the River Blackwater, Norfolk, UK, to apportion suspended particulate matter (SPM) contributions from three sources (arable topsoils, road verges, and subsurface material) under base flow conditions between August 2012 and August 2013. Whilst all 13 models estimate subsurface sources to be the largest contributor of SPM (median ∼76%), comparison of apportionment estimates reveal varying degrees of sensitivity to changing priors, inclusion of covariance terms, incorporation of time-variant distributions, and methods of proportion characterization. We also demonstrate differences in apportionment results between a full and an empirical Bayesian setup, and between a Bayesian and a frequentist optimization approach. This OFAT sensitivity analysis reveals that mixing model structural choices and error assumptions can significantly impact upon sediment source apportionment results, with estimated median contributions in this study varying by up to 21% between model versions. Users of mixing models are therefore strongly advised to carefully consider and justify their choice of model structure prior to conducting sediment source apportionment investigations. An OFAT sensitivity analysis of sediment fingerprinting mixing models is conductedBayesian models display high sensitivity to error assumptions and structural choicesSource apportionment results differ between Bayesian and frequentist approaches.

  11. Bayesian hierarchical models for smoothing in two-phase studies, with application to small area estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Michelle; Wakefield, Jon

    2015-10-01

    Two-phase study designs are appealing since they allow for the oversampling of rare sub-populations which improves efficiency. In this paper we describe a Bayesian hierarchical model for the analysis of two-phase data. Such a model is particularly appealing in a spatial setting in which random effects are introduced to model between-area variability. In such a situation, one may be interested in estimating regression coefficients or, in the context of small area estimation, in reconstructing the population totals by strata. The efficiency gains of the two-phase sampling scheme are compared to standard approaches using 2011 birth data from the research triangle area of North Carolina. We show that the proposed method can overcome small sample difficulties and improve on existing techniques. We conclude that the two-phase design is an attractive approach for small area estimation.

  12. Bayesian network models for error detection in radiotherapy plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalet, Alan M; Ford, Eric C; Phillips, Mark H; Gennari, John H

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to design and develop a probabilistic network for detecting errors in radiotherapy plans for use at the time of initial plan verification. Our group has initiated a multi-pronged approach to reduce these errors. We report on our development of Bayesian models of radiotherapy plans. Bayesian networks consist of joint probability distributions that define the probability of one event, given some set of other known information. Using the networks, we find the probability of obtaining certain radiotherapy parameters, given a set of initial clinical information. A low probability in a propagated network then corresponds to potential errors to be flagged for investigation. To build our networks we first interviewed medical physicists and other domain experts to identify the relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies and to construct a network topology. Next, to populate the network’s conditional probability tables, we used the Hugin Expert software to learn parameter distributions from a subset of de-identified data derived from a radiation oncology based clinical information database system. These data represent 4990 unique prescription cases over a 5 year period. Under test case scenarios with approximately 1.5% introduced error rates, network performance produced areas under the ROC curve of 0.88, 0.98, and 0.89 for the lung, brain and female breast cancer error detection networks, respectively. Comparison of the brain network to human experts performance (AUC of 0.90 ± 0.01) shows the Bayes network model performs better than domain experts under the same test conditions. Our results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of comprehensive probabilistic models as part of decision support systems for improved detection of errors in initial radiotherapy plan verification procedures. (paper)

  13. Sparse Estimation Using Bayesian Hierarchical Prior Modeling for Real and Complex Linear Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Badiu, Mihai Alin

    2015-01-01

    In sparse Bayesian learning (SBL), Gaussian scale mixtures (GSMs) have been used to model sparsity-inducing priors that realize a class of concave penalty functions for the regression task in real-valued signal models. Motivated by the relative scarcity of formal tools for SBL in complex-valued m......In sparse Bayesian learning (SBL), Gaussian scale mixtures (GSMs) have been used to model sparsity-inducing priors that realize a class of concave penalty functions for the regression task in real-valued signal models. Motivated by the relative scarcity of formal tools for SBL in complex...... error, and robustness in low and medium signal-to-noise ratio regimes....

  14. Large scale Bayesian nuclear data evaluation with consistent model defects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schnabel, G

    2015-01-01

    The aim of nuclear data evaluation is the reliable determination of cross sections and related quantities of the atomic nuclei. To this end, evaluation methods are applied which combine the information of experiments with the results of model calculations. The evaluated observables with their associated uncertainties and correlations are assembled into data sets, which are required for the development of novel nuclear facilities, such as fusion reactors for energy supply, and accelerator driven systems for nuclear waste incineration. The efficiency and safety of such future facilities is dependent on the quality of these data sets and thus also on the reliability of the applied evaluation methods. This work investigated the performance of the majority of available evaluation methods in two scenarios. The study indicated the importance of an essential component in these methods, which is the frequently ignored deficiency of nuclear models. Usually, nuclear models are based on approximations and thus their predictions may deviate from reliable experimental data. As demonstrated in this thesis, the neglect of this possibility in evaluation methods can lead to estimates of observables which are inconsistent with experimental data. Due to this finding, an extension of Bayesian evaluation methods is proposed to take into account the deficiency of the nuclear models. The deficiency is modeled as a random function in terms of a Gaussian process and combined with the model prediction. This novel formulation conserves sum rules and allows to explicitly estimate the magnitude of model deficiency. Both features are missing in available evaluation methods so far. Furthermore, two improvements of existing methods have been developed in the course of this thesis. The first improvement concerns methods relying on Monte Carlo sampling. A Metropolis-Hastings scheme with a specific proposal distribution is suggested, which proved to be more efficient in the studied scenarios than the

  15. Bayesian inference and model comparison for metallic fatigue data

    KAUST Repository

    Babuska, Ivo

    2016-01-06

    In this work, we present a statistical treatment of stress-life (S-N) data drawn from a collection of records of fatigue experiments that were performed on 75S-T6 aluminum alloys. Our main objective is to predict the fatigue life of materials by providing a systematic approach to model calibration, model selection and model ranking with reference to S-N data. To this purpose, we consider fatigue-limit models and random fatigue-limit models that are specially designed to allow the treatment of the run-outs (right-censored data). We first fit the models to the data by maximum likelihood methods and estimate the quantiles of the life distribution of the alloy specimen. We then compare and rank the models by classical measures of fit based on information criteria. We also consider a Bayesian approach that provides, under the prior distribution of the model parameters selected by the user, their simulation-based posterior distributions.

  16. iSEDfit: Bayesian spectral energy distribution modeling of galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moustakas, John

    2017-08-01

    iSEDfit uses Bayesian inference to extract the physical properties of galaxies from their observed broadband photometric spectral energy distribution (SED). In its default mode, the inputs to iSEDfit are the measured photometry (fluxes and corresponding inverse variances) and a measurement of the galaxy redshift. Alternatively, iSEDfit can be used to estimate photometric redshifts from the input photometry alone. After the priors have been specified, iSEDfit calculates the marginalized posterior probability distributions for the physical parameters of interest, including the stellar mass, star-formation rate, dust content, star formation history, and stellar metallicity. iSEDfit also optionally computes K-corrections and produces multiple "quality assurance" (QA) plots at each stage of the modeling procedure to aid in the interpretation of the prior parameter choices and subsequent fitting results. The software is distributed as part of the impro IDL suite.

  17. A Bayesian modelling framework for tornado occurrences in North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Vincent Y S; Arhonditsis, George B; Sills, David M L; Gough, William A; Auld, Heather

    2015-03-25

    Tornadoes represent one of nature's most hazardous phenomena that have been responsible for significant destruction and devastating fatalities. Here we present a Bayesian modelling approach for elucidating the spatiotemporal patterns of tornado activity in North America. Our analysis shows a significant increase in the Canadian Prairies and the Northern Great Plains during the summer, indicating a clear transition of tornado activity from the United States to Canada. The linkage between monthly-averaged atmospheric variables and likelihood of tornado events is characterized by distinct seasonality; the convective available potential energy is the predominant factor in the summer; vertical wind shear appears to have a strong signature primarily in the winter and secondarily in the summer; and storm relative environmental helicity is most influential in the spring. The present probabilistic mapping can be used to draw inference on the likelihood of tornado occurrence in any location in North America within a selected time period of the year.

  18. Designing and testing inflationary models with Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Layne C. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States). Dept. of Physics; Auckland Univ. (New Zealand). Dept. of Physics; Peiris, Hiranya V. [Univ. College London (United Kingdom). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; Frazer, Jonathan [DESY Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Univ. of the Basque Country, Bilbao (Spain). Dept. of Theoretical Physics; Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao (Spain). IKERBASQUE; Easther, Richard [Auckland Univ. (New Zealand). Dept. of Physics

    2015-11-15

    Even simple inflationary scenarios have many free parameters. Beyond the variables appearing in the inflationary action, these include dynamical initial conditions, the number of fields, and couplings to other sectors. These quantities are often ignored but cosmological observables can depend on the unknown parameters. We use Bayesian networks to account for a large set of inflationary parameters, deriving generative models for the primordial spectra that are conditioned on a hierarchical set of prior probabilities describing the initial conditions, reheating physics, and other free parameters. We use N{sub f}-quadratic inflation as an illustrative example, finding that the number of e-folds N{sub *} between horizon exit for the pivot scale and the end of inflation is typically the most important parameter, even when the number of fields, their masses and initial conditions are unknown, along with possible conditional dependencies between these parameters.

  19. Designing and testing inflationary models with Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Layne C. [McWilliams Center for Cosmology, Department of Physics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Peiris, Hiranya V. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom); Frazer, Jonathan [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Theory Group, 22603 Hamburg (Germany); Easther, Richard, E-mail: laynep@andrew.cmu.edu, E-mail: h.peiris@ucl.ac.uk, E-mail: jonathan.frazer@desy.de, E-mail: r.easther@auckland.ac.nz [Department of Physics, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland (New Zealand)

    2016-02-01

    Even simple inflationary scenarios have many free parameters. Beyond the variables appearing in the inflationary action, these include dynamical initial conditions, the number of fields, and couplings to other sectors. These quantities are often ignored but cosmological observables can depend on the unknown parameters. We use Bayesian networks to account for a large set of inflationary parameters, deriving generative models for the primordial spectra that are conditioned on a hierarchical set of prior probabilities describing the initial conditions, reheating physics, and other free parameters. We use N{sub f}-quadratic inflation as an illustrative example, finding that the number of e-folds N{sub *} between horizon exit for the pivot scale and the end of inflation is typically the most important parameter, even when the number of fields, their masses and initial conditions are unknown, along with possible conditional dependencies between these parameters.

  20. Designing and testing inflationary models with Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Price, Layne C.; Auckland Univ.; Peiris, Hiranya V.; Frazer, Jonathan; Univ. of the Basque Country, Bilbao; Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao; Easther, Richard

    2015-11-01

    Even simple inflationary scenarios have many free parameters. Beyond the variables appearing in the inflationary action, these include dynamical initial conditions, the number of fields, and couplings to other sectors. These quantities are often ignored but cosmological observables can depend on the unknown parameters. We use Bayesian networks to account for a large set of inflationary parameters, deriving generative models for the primordial spectra that are conditioned on a hierarchical set of prior probabilities describing the initial conditions, reheating physics, and other free parameters. We use N f -quadratic inflation as an illustrative example, finding that the number of e-folds N * between horizon exit for the pivot scale and the end of inflation is typically the most important parameter, even when the number of fields, their masses and initial conditions are unknown, along with possible conditional dependencies between these parameters.

  1. Comparison of Bayesian and frequentist approaches in modelling risk of preterm birth near the Sydney Tar Ponds, Nova Scotia, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Canty Angelo

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study compares the Bayesian and frequentist (non-Bayesian approaches in the modelling of the association between the risk of preterm birth and maternal proximity to hazardous waste and pollution from the Sydney Tar Pond site in Nova Scotia, Canada. Methods The data includes 1604 observed cases of preterm birth out of a total population of 17559 at risk of preterm birth from 144 enumeration districts in the Cape Breton Regional Municipality. Other covariates include the distance from the Tar Pond; the rate of unemployment to population; the proportion of persons who are separated, divorced or widowed; the proportion of persons who have no high school diploma; the proportion of persons living alone; the proportion of single parent families and average income. Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression, quasi-likelihood Poisson regression and weighted linear regression models were fitted to the data. Results The results of the analyses were compared together with their limitations. Conclusion The results of the weighted linear regression and the quasi-likelihood Poisson regression agrees with the result from the Bayesian hierarchical modelling which incorporates the spatial effects.

  2. Forecast Accuracy and Economic Gains from Bayesian Model Averaging using Time Varying Weights

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart); R.H. Kleijn (Richard); H.K. van Dijk (Herman); M.J.C.M. Verbeek (Marno)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractSeveral Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time

  3. Evidence on Features of a DSGE Business Cycle Model from Bayesian Model Averaging

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThe empirical support for features of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with two technology shocks is valuated using Bayesian model averaging over vector autoregressions. The model features include equilibria, restrictions on long-run responses, a structural break of unknown

  4. Bayesian nonparametric meta-analysis using Polya tree mixture models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branscum, Adam J; Hanson, Timothy E

    2008-09-01

    Summary. A common goal in meta-analysis is estimation of a single effect measure using data from several studies that are each designed to address the same scientific inquiry. Because studies are typically conducted in geographically disperse locations, recent developments in the statistical analysis of meta-analytic data involve the use of random effects models that account for study-to-study variability attributable to differences in environments, demographics, genetics, and other sources that lead to heterogeneity in populations. Stemming from asymptotic theory, study-specific summary statistics are modeled according to normal distributions with means representing latent true effect measures. A parametric approach subsequently models these latent measures using a normal distribution, which is strictly a convenient modeling assumption absent of theoretical justification. To eliminate the influence of overly restrictive parametric models on inferences, we consider a broader class of random effects distributions. We develop a novel hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric Polya tree mixture (PTM) model. We present methodology for testing the PTM versus a normal random effects model. These methods provide researchers a straightforward approach for conducting a sensitivity analysis of the normality assumption for random effects. An application involving meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies designed to characterize the association between alcohol consumption and breast cancer is presented, which together with results from simulated data highlight the performance of PTMs in the presence of nonnormality of effect measures in the source population.

  5. Bayesian modeling of ChIP-chip data using latent variables.

    KAUST Repository

    Wu, Mingqi

    2009-10-26

    BACKGROUND: The ChIP-chip technology has been used in a wide range of biomedical studies, such as identification of human transcription factor binding sites, investigation of DNA methylation, and investigation of histone modifications in animals and plants. Various methods have been proposed in the literature for analyzing the ChIP-chip data, such as the sliding window methods, the hidden Markov model-based methods, and Bayesian methods. Although, due to the integrated consideration of uncertainty of the models and model parameters, Bayesian methods can potentially work better than the other two classes of methods, the existing Bayesian methods do not perform satisfactorily. They usually require multiple replicates or some extra experimental information to parametrize the model, and long CPU time due to involving of MCMC simulations. RESULTS: In this paper, we propose a Bayesian latent model for the ChIP-chip data. The new model mainly differs from the existing Bayesian models, such as the joint deconvolution model, the hierarchical gamma mixture model, and the Bayesian hierarchical model, in two respects. Firstly, it works on the difference between the averaged treatment and control samples. This enables the use of a simple model for the data, which avoids the probe-specific effect and the sample (control/treatment) effect. As a consequence, this enables an efficient MCMC simulation of the posterior distribution of the model, and also makes the model more robust to the outliers. Secondly, it models the neighboring dependence of probes by introducing a latent indicator vector. A truncated Poisson prior distribution is assumed for the latent indicator variable, with the rationale being justified at length. CONCLUSION: The Bayesian latent method is successfully applied to real and ten simulated datasets, with comparisons with some of the existing Bayesian methods, hidden Markov model methods, and sliding window methods. The numerical results indicate that the

  6. A novel Bayesian hierarchical model for road safety hotspot prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fawcett, Lee; Thorpe, Neil; Matthews, Joseph; Kremer, Karsten

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting accident counts in future years at sites within a pool of potential road safety hotspots. The aim is to inform road safety practitioners of the location of likely future hotspots to enable a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to road safety scheme implementation. A feature of our model is the ability to rank sites according to their potential to exceed, in some future time period, a threshold accident count which may be used as a criterion for scheme implementation. Our model specification enables the classical empirical Bayes formulation - commonly used in before-and-after studies, wherein accident counts from a single before period are used to estimate counterfactual counts in the after period - to be extended to incorporate counts from multiple time periods. This allows site-specific variations in historical accident counts (e.g. locally-observed trends) to offset estimates of safety generated by a global accident prediction model (APM), which itself is used to help account for the effects of global trend and regression-to-mean (RTM). The Bayesian posterior predictive distribution is exploited to formulate predictions and to properly quantify our uncertainty in these predictions. The main contributions of our model include (i) the ability to allow accident counts from multiple time-points to inform predictions, with counts in more recent years lending more weight to predictions than counts from time-points further in the past; (ii) where appropriate, the ability to offset global estimates of trend by variations in accident counts observed locally, at a site-specific level; and (iii) the ability to account for unknown/unobserved site-specific factors which may affect accident counts. We illustrate our model with an application to accident counts at 734 potential hotspots in the German city of Halle; we also propose some simple diagnostics to validate the predictive capability of our

  7. Bayesian Network Webserver: a comprehensive tool for biological network modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziebarth, Jesse D; Bhattacharya, Anindya; Cui, Yan

    2013-11-01

    The Bayesian Network Webserver (BNW) is a platform for comprehensive network modeling of systems genetics and other biological datasets. It allows users to quickly and seamlessly upload a dataset, learn the structure of the network model that best explains the data and use the model to understand relationships between network variables. Many datasets, including those used to create genetic network models, contain both discrete (e.g. genotype) and continuous (e.g. gene expression traits) variables, and BNW allows for modeling hybrid datasets. Users of BNW can incorporate prior knowledge during structure learning through an easy-to-use structural constraint interface. After structure learning, users are immediately presented with an interactive network model, which can be used to make testable hypotheses about network relationships. BNW, including a downloadable structure learning package, is available at http://compbio.uthsc.edu/BNW. (The BNW interface for adding structural constraints uses HTML5 features that are not supported by current version of Internet Explorer. We suggest using other browsers (e.g. Google Chrome or Mozilla Firefox) when accessing BNW). ycui2@uthsc.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  8. Bayesian model ensembling using meta-trained recurrent neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ambrogioni, L.; Berezutskaya, Y.; Gü ç lü , U.; Borne, E.W.P. van den; Gü ç lü tü rk, Y.; Gerven, M.A.J. van; Maris, E.G.G.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we demonstrate that a recurrent neural network meta-trained on an ensemble of arbitrary classification tasks can be used as an approximation of the Bayes optimal classifier. This result is obtained by relying on the framework of e-free approximate Bayesian inference, where the Bayesian

  9. Probabilistic daily ILI syndromic surveillance with a spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ta-Chien Chan

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: For daily syndromic surveillance to be effective, an efficient and sensible algorithm would be expected to detect aberrations in influenza illness, and alert public health workers prior to any impending epidemic. This detection or alert surely contains uncertainty, and thus should be evaluated with a proper probabilistic measure. However, traditional monitoring mechanisms simply provide a binary alert, failing to adequately address this uncertainty. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Based on the Bayesian posterior probability of influenza-like illness (ILI visits, the intensity of outbreak can be directly assessed. The numbers of daily emergency room ILI visits at five community hospitals in Taipei City during 2006-2007 were collected and fitted with a Bayesian hierarchical model containing meteorological factors such as temperature and vapor pressure, spatial interaction with conditional autoregressive structure, weekend and holiday effects, seasonality factors, and previous ILI visits. The proposed algorithm recommends an alert for action if the posterior probability is larger than 70%. External data from January to February of 2008 were retained for validation. The decision rule detects successfully the peak in the validation period. When comparing the posterior probability evaluation with the modified Cusum method, results show that the proposed method is able to detect the signals 1-2 days prior to the rise of ILI visits. CONCLUSIONS: This Bayesian hierarchical model not only constitutes a dynamic surveillance system but also constructs a stochastic evaluation of the need to call for alert. The monitoring mechanism provides earlier detection as well as a complementary tool for current surveillance programs.

  10. Impact of petrophysical uncertainty on Bayesian hydrogeophysical inversion and model selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunetti, Carlotta; Linde, Niklas

    2018-01-01

    Quantitative hydrogeophysical studies rely heavily on petrophysical relationships that link geophysical properties to hydrogeological properties and state variables. Coupled inversion studies are frequently based on the questionable assumption that these relationships are perfect (i.e., no scatter). Using synthetic examples and crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data from the South Oyster Bacterial Transport Site in Virginia, USA, we investigate the impact of spatially-correlated petrophysical uncertainty on inferred posterior porosity and hydraulic conductivity distributions and on Bayes factors used in Bayesian model selection. Our study shows that accounting for petrophysical uncertainty in the inversion (I) decreases bias of the inferred variance of hydrogeological subsurface properties, (II) provides more realistic uncertainty assessment and (III) reduces the overconfidence in the ability of geophysical data to falsify conceptual hydrogeological models.

  11. Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty in Bayesian Segmentation Models: Application to Hippocampal Subfield Volumetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iglesias, J. E.; Sabuncu, M. R.; Van Leemput, Koen

    2012-01-01

    Many successful segmentation algorithms are based on Bayesian models in which prior anatomical knowledge is combined with the available image information. However, these methods typically have many free parameters that are estimated to obtain point estimates only, whereas a faithful Bayesian anal...

  12. A Bayesian Approach to Person Fit Analysis in Item Response Theory Models. Research Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glas, Cees A. W.; Meijer, Rob R.

    A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of person fit in item response theory (IRT) models is presented. In a posterior predictive check, the observed value on a discrepancy variable is positioned in its posterior distribution. In a Bayesian framework, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure can be used to generate samples of the posterior distribution…

  13. Bayesian linear regression : different conjugate models and their (in)sensitivity to prior-data conflict

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walter, G.M.; Augustin, Th.; Kneib, Thomas; Tutz, Gerhard

    2010-01-01

    The paper is concerned with Bayesian analysis under prior-data conflict, i.e. the situation when observed data are rather unexpected under the prior (and the sample size is not large enough to eliminate the influence of the prior). Two approaches for Bayesian linear regression modeling based on

  14. Rational Irrationality: Modeling Climate Change Belief Polarization Using Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, John; Lewandowsky, Stephan

    2016-01-01

    Belief polarization is said to occur when two people respond to the same evidence by updating their beliefs in opposite directions. This response is considered to be "irrational" because it involves contrary updating, a form of belief updating that appears to violate normatively optimal responding, as for example dictated by Bayes' theorem. In light of much evidence that people are capable of normatively optimal behavior, belief polarization presents a puzzling exception. We show that Bayesian networks, or Bayes nets, can simulate rational belief updating. When fit to experimental data, Bayes nets can help identify the factors that contribute to polarization. We present a study into belief updating concerning the reality of climate change in response to information about the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW). The study used representative samples of Australian and U.S. Among Australians, consensus information partially neutralized the influence of worldview, with free-market supporters showing a greater increase in acceptance of human-caused global warming relative to free-market opponents. In contrast, while consensus information overall had a positive effect on perceived consensus among U.S. participants, there was a reduction in perceived consensus and acceptance of human-caused global warming for strong supporters of unregulated free markets. Fitting a Bayes net model to the data indicated that under a Bayesian framework, free-market support is a significant driver of beliefs about climate change and trust in climate scientists. Further, active distrust of climate scientists among a small number of U.S. conservatives drives contrary updating in response to consensus information among this particular group. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  15. A Bayesian Model of Category-Specific Emotional Brain Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wager, Tor D.; Kang, Jian; Johnson, Timothy D.; Nichols, Thomas E.; Satpute, Ajay B.; Barrett, Lisa Feldman

    2015-01-01

    Understanding emotion is critical for a science of healthy and disordered brain function, but the neurophysiological basis of emotional experience is still poorly understood. We analyzed human brain activity patterns from 148 studies of emotion categories (2159 total participants) using a novel hierarchical Bayesian model. The model allowed us to classify which of five categories—fear, anger, disgust, sadness, or happiness—is engaged by a study with 66% accuracy (43-86% across categories). Analyses of the activity patterns encoded in the model revealed that each emotion category is associated with unique, prototypical patterns of activity across multiple brain systems including the cortex, thalamus, amygdala, and other structures. The results indicate that emotion categories are not contained within any one region or system, but are represented as configurations across multiple brain networks. The model provides a precise summary of the prototypical patterns for each emotion category, and demonstrates that a sufficient characterization of emotion categories relies on (a) differential patterns of involvement in neocortical systems that differ between humans and other species, and (b) distinctive patterns of cortical-subcortical interactions. Thus, these findings are incompatible with several contemporary theories of emotion, including those that emphasize emotion-dedicated brain systems and those that propose emotion is localized primarily in subcortical activity. They are consistent with componential and constructionist views, which propose that emotions are differentiated by a combination of perceptual, mnemonic, prospective, and motivational elements. Such brain-based models of emotion provide a foundation for new translational and clinical approaches. PMID:25853490

  16. Bayesian calibration of the Community Land Model using surrogates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Swiler, Laura Painton

    2014-02-01

    We present results from the Bayesian calibration of hydrological parameters of the Community Land Model (CLM), which is often used in climate simulations and Earth system models. A statistical inverse problem is formulated for three hydrological parameters, conditional on observations of latent heat surface fluxes over 48 months. Our calibration method uses polynomial and Gaussian process surrogates of the CLM, and solves the parameter estimation problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. Posterior probability densities for the parameters are developed for two sites with different soil and vegetation covers. Our method also allows us to examine the structural error in CLM under two error models. We find that surrogate models can be created for CLM in most cases. The posterior distributions are more predictive than the default parameter values in CLM. Climatologically averaging the observations does not modify the parameters' distributions significantly. The structural error model reveals a correlation time-scale which can be used to identify the physical process that could be contributing to it. While the calibrated CLM has a higher predictive skill, the calibration is under-dispersive.

  17. Ensemble bayesian model averaging using markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Diks, Cees G H [NON LANL; Clark, Martyn P [NON LANL

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a statistical method to calibrate forecast ensembles from numerical weather models. Successful implementation of BMA however, requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble. In their seminal paper (Raftery etal. Mon Weather Rev 133: 1155-1174, 2(05)) has recommended the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for BMA model training, even though global convergence of this algorithm cannot be guaranteed. In this paper, we compare the performance of the EM algorithm and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating the BMA weights and variances. Simulation experiments using 48-hour ensemble data of surface temperature and multi-model stream-flow forecasts show that both methods produce similar results, and that their performance is unaffected by the length of the training data set. However, MCMC simulation with DREAM is capable of efficiently handling a wide variety of BMA predictive distributions, and provides useful information about the uncertainty associated with the estimated BMA weights and variances.

  18. Bayesian Belief Networks Approach for Modeling Irrigation Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andriyas, S.; McKee, M.

    2012-12-01

    Canal operators need information to manage water deliveries to irrigators. Short-term irrigation demand forecasts can potentially valuable information for a canal operator who must manage an on-demand system. Such forecasts could be generated by using information about the decision-making processes of irrigators. Bayesian models of irrigation behavior can provide insight into the likely criteria which farmers use to make irrigation decisions. This paper develops a Bayesian belief network (BBN) to learn irrigation decision-making behavior of farmers and utilizes the resulting model to make forecasts of future irrigation decisions based on factor interaction and posterior probabilities. Models for studying irrigation behavior have been rarely explored in the past. The model discussed here was built from a combination of data about biotic, climatic, and edaphic conditions under which observed irrigation decisions were made. The paper includes a case study using data collected from the Canal B region of the Sevier River, near Delta, Utah. Alfalfa, barley and corn are the main crops of the location. The model has been tested with a portion of the data to affirm the model predictive capabilities. Irrigation rules were deduced in the process of learning and verified in the testing phase. It was found that most of the farmers used consistent rules throughout all years and across different types of crops. Soil moisture stress, which indicates the level of water available to the plant in the soil profile, was found to be one of the most significant likely driving forces for irrigation. Irrigations appeared to be triggered by a farmer's perception of soil stress, or by a perception of combined factors such as information about a neighbor irrigating or an apparent preference to irrigate on a weekend. Soil stress resulted in irrigation probabilities of 94.4% for alfalfa. With additional factors like weekend and irrigating when a neighbor irrigates, alfalfa irrigation

  19. Bayesian Genomic Prediction with Genotype × Environment Interaction Kernel Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuevas, Jaime; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, Osval A.; Burgueño, Juan; Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; de los Campos, Gustavo

    2016-01-01

    The phenomenon of genotype × environment (G × E) interaction in plant breeding decreases selection accuracy, thereby negatively affecting genetic gains. Several genomic prediction models incorporating G × E have been recently developed and used in genomic selection of plant breeding programs. Genomic prediction models for assessing multi-environment G × E interaction are extensions of a single-environment model, and have advantages and limitations. In this study, we propose two multi-environment Bayesian genomic models: the first model considers genetic effects (u) that can be assessed by the Kronecker product of variance–covariance matrices of genetic correlations between environments and genomic kernels through markers under two linear kernel methods, linear (genomic best linear unbiased predictors, GBLUP) and Gaussian (Gaussian kernel, GK). The other model has the same genetic component as the first model (u) plus an extra component, f, that captures random effects between environments that were not captured by the random effects u. We used five CIMMYT data sets (one maize and four wheat) that were previously used in different studies. Results show that models with G × E always have superior prediction ability than single-environment models, and the higher prediction ability of multi-environment models with u and f over the multi-environment model with only u occurred 85% of the time with GBLUP and 45% of the time with GK across the five data sets. The latter result indicated that including the random effect f is still beneficial for increasing prediction ability after adjusting by the random effect u. PMID:27793970

  20. Bayesian Genomic Prediction with Genotype × Environment Interaction Kernel Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Cuevas

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The phenomenon of genotype × environment (G × E interaction in plant breeding decreases selection accuracy, thereby negatively affecting genetic gains. Several genomic prediction models incorporating G × E have been recently developed and used in genomic selection of plant breeding programs. Genomic prediction models for assessing multi-environment G × E interaction are extensions of a single-environment model, and have advantages and limitations. In this study, we propose two multi-environment Bayesian genomic models: the first model considers genetic effects ( u that can be assessed by the Kronecker product of variance–covariance matrices of genetic correlations between environments and genomic kernels through markers under two linear kernel methods, linear (genomic best linear unbiased predictors, GBLUP and Gaussian (Gaussian kernel, GK. The other model has the same genetic component as the first model ( u plus an extra component, f, that captures random effects between environments that were not captured by the random effects u . We used five CIMMYT data sets (one maize and four wheat that were previously used in different studies. Results show that models with G × E always have superior prediction ability than single-environment models, and the higher prediction ability of multi-environment models with u   and   f over the multi-environment model with only u occurred 85% of the time with GBLUP and 45% of the time with GK across the five data sets. The latter result indicated that including the random effect f is still beneficial for increasing prediction ability after adjusting by the random effect u .

  1. Bayesian Genomic Prediction with Genotype × Environment Interaction Kernel Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuevas, Jaime; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, Osval A; Burgueño, Juan; Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; de Los Campos, Gustavo

    2017-01-05

    The phenomenon of genotype × environment (G × E) interaction in plant breeding decreases selection accuracy, thereby negatively affecting genetic gains. Several genomic prediction models incorporating G × E have been recently developed and used in genomic selection of plant breeding programs. Genomic prediction models for assessing multi-environment G × E interaction are extensions of a single-environment model, and have advantages and limitations. In this study, we propose two multi-environment Bayesian genomic models: the first model considers genetic effects [Formula: see text] that can be assessed by the Kronecker product of variance-covariance matrices of genetic correlations between environments and genomic kernels through markers under two linear kernel methods, linear (genomic best linear unbiased predictors, GBLUP) and Gaussian (Gaussian kernel, GK). The other model has the same genetic component as the first model [Formula: see text] plus an extra component, F: , that captures random effects between environments that were not captured by the random effects [Formula: see text] We used five CIMMYT data sets (one maize and four wheat) that were previously used in different studies. Results show that models with G × E always have superior prediction ability than single-environment models, and the higher prediction ability of multi-environment models with [Formula: see text] over the multi-environment model with only u occurred 85% of the time with GBLUP and 45% of the time with GK across the five data sets. The latter result indicated that including the random effect f is still beneficial for increasing prediction ability after adjusting by the random effect [Formula: see text]. Copyright © 2017 Cuevas et al.

  2. Investigating Spatial Interdependence in E-Bike Choice Using Spatially Autoregressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengcheng Xu

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Increased attention has been given to promoting e-bike usage in recent years. However, the research gap still exists in understanding the effects of spatial interdependence on e-bike choice. This study investigated how spatial interdependence affected the e-bike choice. The Moran’s I statistic test showed that spatial interdependence exists in e-bike choice at aggregated level. Bayesian spatial autoregressive logistic analyses were then used to investigate the spatial interdependence at individual level. Separate models were developed for commuting and non-commuting trips. The factors affecting e-bike choice are different between commuting and non-commuting trips. Spatial interdependence exists at both origin and destination sides of commuting and non-commuting trips. Travellers are more likely to choose e-bikes if their neighbours at the trip origin and destination also travel by e-bikes. And the magnitude of this spatial interdependence is different across various traffic analysis zones. The results suggest that, without considering spatial interdependence, the traditional methods may have biased estimation results and make systematic forecasting errors.

  3. A Bayesian spatio-temporal geostatistical model with an auxiliary lattice for large datasets

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Ganggang

    2015-01-01

    When spatio-temporal datasets are large, the computational burden can lead to failures in the implementation of traditional geostatistical tools. In this paper, we propose a computationally efficient Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model in which the spatial dependence is approximated by a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) while the temporal correlation is described using a vector autoregressive model. By introducing an auxiliary lattice on the spatial region of interest, the proposed method is not only able to handle irregularly spaced observations in the spatial domain, but it is also able to bypass the missing data problem in a spatio-temporal process. Because the computational complexity of the proposed Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is of the order O(n) with n the total number of observations in space and time, our method can be used to handle very large spatio-temporal datasets with reasonable CPU times. The performance of the proposed model is illustrated using simulation studies and a dataset of precipitation data from the coterminous United States.

  4. Bayesian model averaging using particle filtering and Gaussian mixture modeling : Theory, concepts, and simulation experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rings, J.; Vrugt, J.A.; Schoups, G.; Huisman, J.A.; Vereecken, H.

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a standard method for combining predictive distributions from different models. In recent years, this method has enjoyed widespread application and use in many fields of study to improve the spread-skill relationship of forecast ensembles. The BMA predictive

  5. Airline Sustainability Modeling: A New Framework with Application of Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salarzadeh Jenatabadi, Hashem; Babashamsi, Peyman; Khajeheian, Datis

    2016-01-01

    There are many factors which could influence the sustainability of airlines. The main purpose of this study is to introduce a framework for a financial sustainability index and model it based on structural equation modeling (SEM) with maximum likelihood and Bayesian predictors. The introduced...

  6. Bayesian inference for hybrid discrete-continuous stochastic kinetic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sherlock, Chris; Golightly, Andrew; Gillespie, Colin S

    2014-01-01

    We consider the problem of efficiently performing simulation and inference for stochastic kinetic models. Whilst it is possible to work directly with the resulting Markov jump process (MJP), computational cost can be prohibitive for networks of realistic size and complexity. In this paper, we consider an inference scheme based on a novel hybrid simulator that classifies reactions as either ‘fast’ or ‘slow’ with fast reactions evolving as a continuous Markov process whilst the remaining slow reaction occurrences are modelled through a MJP with time-dependent hazards. A linear noise approximation (LNA) of fast reaction dynamics is employed and slow reaction events are captured by exploiting the ability to solve the stochastic differential equation driving the LNA. This simulation procedure is used as a proposal mechanism inside a particle MCMC scheme, thus allowing Bayesian inference for the model parameters. We apply the scheme to a simple application and compare the output with an existing hybrid approach and also a scheme for performing inference for the underlying discrete stochastic model. (paper)

  7. Bayesian model calibration of ramp compression experiments on Z

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Justin; Hund, Lauren

    2017-06-01

    Bayesian model calibration (BMC) is a statistical framework to estimate inputs for a computational model in the presence of multiple uncertainties, making it well suited to dynamic experiments which must be coupled with numerical simulations to interpret the results. Often, dynamic experiments are diagnosed using velocimetry and this output can be modeled using a hydrocode. Several calibration issues unique to this type of scenario including the functional nature of the output, uncertainty of nuisance parameters within the simulation, and model discrepancy identifiability are addressed, and a novel BMC process is proposed. As a proof of concept, we examine experiments conducted on Sandia National Laboratories' Z-machine which ramp compressed tantalum to peak stresses of 250 GPa. The proposed BMC framework is used to calibrate the cold curve of Ta (with uncertainty), and we conclude that the procedure results in simple, fast, and valid inferences. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  8. Improving default risk prediction using Bayesian model uncertainty techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazemi, Reza; Mosleh, Ali

    2012-11-01

    Credit risk is the potential exposure of a creditor to an obligor's failure or refusal to repay the debt in principal or interest. The potential of exposure is measured in terms of probability of default. Many models have been developed to estimate credit risk, with rating agencies dating back to the 19th century. They provide their assessment of probability of default and transition probabilities of various firms in their annual reports. Regulatory capital requirements for credit risk outlined by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision have made it essential for banks and financial institutions to develop sophisticated models in an attempt to measure credit risk with higher accuracy. The Bayesian framework proposed in this article uses the techniques developed in physical sciences and engineering for dealing with model uncertainty and expert accuracy to obtain improved estimates of credit risk and associated uncertainties. The approach uses estimates from one or more rating agencies and incorporates their historical accuracy (past performance data) in estimating future default risk and transition probabilities. Several examples demonstrate that the proposed methodology can assess default probability with accuracy exceeding the estimations of all the individual models. Moreover, the methodology accounts for potentially significant departures from "nominal predictions" due to "upsetting events" such as the 2008 global banking crisis. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Bayesian Hierarchical Random Effects Models in Forensic Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin G. G. Aitken

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Statistical modeling of the evaluation of evidence with the use of the likelihood ratio has a long history. It dates from the Dreyfus case at the end of the nineteenth century through the work at Bletchley Park in the Second World War to the present day. The development received a significant boost in 1977 with a seminal work by Dennis Lindley which introduced a Bayesian hierarchical random effects model for the evaluation of evidence with an example of refractive index measurements on fragments of glass. Many models have been developed since then. The methods have now been sufficiently well-developed and have become so widespread that it is timely to try and provide a software package to assist in their implementation. With that in mind, a project (SAILR: Software for the Analysis and Implementation of Likelihood Ratios was funded by the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes through their Monopoly programme to develop a software package for use by forensic scientists world-wide that would assist in the statistical analysis and implementation of the approach based on likelihood ratios. It is the purpose of this document to provide a short review of a small part of this history. The review also provides a background, or landscape, for the development of some of the models within the SAILR package and references to SAILR as made as appropriate.

  10. Bayesian Hierarchical Random Effects Models in Forensic Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitken, Colin G G

    2018-01-01

    Statistical modeling of the evaluation of evidence with the use of the likelihood ratio has a long history. It dates from the Dreyfus case at the end of the nineteenth century through the work at Bletchley Park in the Second World War to the present day. The development received a significant boost in 1977 with a seminal work by Dennis Lindley which introduced a Bayesian hierarchical random effects model for the evaluation of evidence with an example of refractive index measurements on fragments of glass. Many models have been developed since then. The methods have now been sufficiently well-developed and have become so widespread that it is timely to try and provide a software package to assist in their implementation. With that in mind, a project (SAILR: Software for the Analysis and Implementation of Likelihood Ratios) was funded by the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes through their Monopoly programme to develop a software package for use by forensic scientists world-wide that would assist in the statistical analysis and implementation of the approach based on likelihood ratios. It is the purpose of this document to provide a short review of a small part of this history. The review also provides a background, or landscape, for the development of some of the models within the SAILR package and references to SAILR as made as appropriate.

  11. A Bayesian-Based Approach to Marine Spatial Planning: Evaluating Spatial and Temporal Variance in the Provision of Ecosystem Services Before and After the Establishment Oregon's Marine Protected Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, B.; Harte, M.; Goldfinger, C.

    2017-12-01

    Participating in a ten-year monitoring project to assess the ecological, social, and socioeconomic impacts of Oregon's Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), we have worked in partnership with the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) to develop a Bayesian geospatial method to evaluate the spatial and temporal variance in the provision of ecosystem services produced by Oregon's MPAs. Probabilistic (Bayesian) approaches to Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) show considerable potential for addressing issues such as uncertainty, cumulative effects, and the need to integrate stakeholder-held information and preferences into decision making processes. To that end, we have created a Bayesian-based geospatial approach to MSP capable of modelling the evolution of the provision of ecosystem services before and after the establishment of Oregon's MPAs. Our approach permits both planners and stakeholders to view expected impacts of differing policies, behaviors, or choices made concerning Oregon's MPAs and surrounding areas in a geospatial (map) format while simultaneously considering multiple parties' beliefs on the policies or uses in question. We quantify the influence of the MPAs as the shift in the spatial distribution of ecosystem services, both inside and outside the protected areas, over time. Once the MPAs' influence on the provision of coastal ecosystem services has been evaluated, it is possible to view these impacts through geovisualization techniques. As a specific example of model use and output, a user could investigate the effects of altering the habitat preferences of a rockfish species over a prescribed period of time (5, 10, 20 years post-harvesting restrictions, etc.) on the relative intensity of spillover from nearby reserves (please see submitted figure). Particular strengths of our Bayesian-based approach include its ability to integrate highly disparate input types (qualitative or quantitative), to accommodate data gaps, address uncertainty, and to

  12. Estimating Parameters in Physical Models through Bayesian Inversion: A Complete Example

    KAUST Repository

    Allmaras, Moritz; Bangerth, Wolfgang; Linhart, Jean Marie; Polanco, Javier; Wang, Fang; Wang, Kainan; Webster, Jennifer; Zedler, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    All mathematical models of real-world phenomena contain parameters that need to be estimated from measurements, either for realistic predictions or simply to understand the characteristics of the model. Bayesian statistics provides a framework

  13. Hybrid nested sampling algorithm for Bayesian model selection applied to inverse subsurface flow problems

    KAUST Repository

    Elsheikh, Ahmed H.; Wheeler, Mary Fanett; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2014-01-01

    A Hybrid Nested Sampling (HNS) algorithm is proposed for efficient Bayesian model calibration and prior model selection. The proposed algorithm combines, Nested Sampling (NS) algorithm, Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling and gradient estimation using

  14. A Bayesian analysis of sensible heat flux estimation: Quantifying uncertainty in meteorological forcing to improve model prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Ershadi, Ali

    2013-05-01

    The influence of uncertainty in land surface temperature, air temperature, and wind speed on the estimation of sensible heat flux is analyzed using a Bayesian inference technique applied to the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model. The Bayesian approach allows for an explicit quantification of the uncertainties in input variables: a source of error generally ignored in surface heat flux estimation. An application using field measurements from the Soil Moisture Experiment 2002 is presented. The spatial variability of selected input meteorological variables in a multitower site is used to formulate the prior estimates for the sampling uncertainties, and the likelihood function is formulated assuming Gaussian errors in the SEBS model. Land surface temperature, air temperature, and wind speed were estimated by sampling their posterior distribution using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Results verify that Bayesian-inferred air temperature and wind speed were generally consistent with those observed at the towers, suggesting that local observations of these variables were spatially representative. Uncertainties in the land surface temperature appear to have the strongest effect on the estimated sensible heat flux, with Bayesian-inferred values differing by up to ±5°C from the observed data. These differences suggest that the footprint of the in situ measured land surface temperature is not representative of the larger-scale variability. As such, these measurements should be used with caution in the calculation of surface heat fluxes and highlight the importance of capturing the spatial variability in the land surface temperature: particularly, for remote sensing retrieval algorithms that use this variable for flux estimation.

  15. Competing risk models in reliability systems, a Weibull distribution model with Bayesian analysis approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iskandar, Ismed; Gondokaryono, Yudi Satria

    2016-01-01

    In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range

  16. Flexible Bayesian Dynamic Modeling of Covariance and Correlation Matrices

    KAUST Repository

    Lan, Shiwei

    2017-11-08

    Modeling covariance (and correlation) matrices is a challenging problem due to the large dimensionality and positive-definiteness constraint. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian framework based on decomposing the covariance matrix into variance and correlation matrices. The highlight is that the correlations are represented as products of vectors on unit spheres. We propose a variety of distributions on spheres (e.g. the squared-Dirichlet distribution) to induce flexible prior distributions for covariance matrices that go beyond the commonly used inverse-Wishart prior. To handle the intractability of the resulting posterior, we introduce the adaptive $\\\\Delta$-Spherical Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We also extend our structured framework to dynamic cases and introduce unit-vector Gaussian process priors for modeling the evolution of correlation among multiple time series. Using an example of Normal-Inverse-Wishart problem, a simulated periodic process, and an analysis of local field potential data (collected from the hippocampus of rats performing a complex sequence memory task), we demonstrated the validity and effectiveness of our proposed framework for (dynamic) modeling covariance and correlation matrices.

  17. Context-dependent decision-making: a simple Bayesian model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Kevin; Leslie, David S

    2013-05-06

    Many phenomena in animal learning can be explained by a context-learning process whereby an animal learns about different patterns of relationship between environmental variables. Differentiating between such environmental regimes or 'contexts' allows an animal to rapidly adapt its behaviour when context changes occur. The current work views animals as making sequential inferences about current context identity in a world assumed to be relatively stable but also capable of rapid switches to previously observed or entirely new contexts. We describe a novel decision-making model in which contexts are assumed to follow a Chinese restaurant process with inertia and full Bayesian inference is approximated by a sequential-sampling scheme in which only a single hypothesis about current context is maintained. Actions are selected via Thompson sampling, allowing uncertainty in parameters to drive exploration in a straightforward manner. The model is tested on simple two-alternative choice problems with switching reinforcement schedules and the results compared with rat behavioural data from a number of T-maze studies. The model successfully replicates a number of important behavioural effects: spontaneous recovery, the effect of partial reinforcement on extinction and reversal, the overtraining reversal effect, and serial reversal-learning effects.

  18. A Bayesian approach to the modelling of α Cen A

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazot, M.; Bourguignon, S.; Christensen-Dalsgaard, J.

    2012-12-01

    Determining the physical characteristics of a star is an inverse problem consisting of estimating the parameters of models for the stellar structure and evolution, and knowing certain observable quantities. We use a Bayesian approach to solve this problem for α Cen A, which allows us to incorporate prior information on the parameters to be estimated, in order to better constrain the problem. Our strategy is based on the use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to estimate the posterior probability densities of the stellar parameters: mass, age, initial chemical composition, etc. We use the stellar evolutionary code ASTEC to model the star. To constrain this model both seismic and non-seismic observations were considered. Several different strategies were tested to fit these values, using either two free parameters or five free parameters in ASTEC. We are thus able to show evidence that MCMC methods become efficient with respect to more classical grid-based strategies when the number of parameters increases. The results of our MCMC algorithm allow us to derive estimates for the stellar parameters and robust uncertainties thanks to the statistical analysis of the posterior probability densities. We are also able to compute odds for the presence of a convective core in α Cen A. When using core-sensitive seismic observational constraints, these can rise above ˜40 per cent. The comparison of results to previous studies also indicates that these seismic constraints are of critical importance for our knowledge of the structure of this star.

  19. Parameter Estimation of Structural Equation Modeling Using Bayesian Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dewi Kurnia Sari

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Leadership is a process of influencing, directing or giving an example of employees in order to achieve the objectives of the organization and is a key element in the effectiveness of the organization. In addition to the style of leadership, the success of an organization or company in achieving its objectives can also be influenced by the commitment of the organization. Where organizational commitment is a commitment created by each individual for the betterment of the organization. The purpose of this research is to obtain a model of leadership style and organizational commitment to job satisfaction and employee performance, and determine the factors that influence job satisfaction and employee performance using SEM with Bayesian approach. This research was conducted at Statistics FNI employees in Malang, with 15 people. The result of this study showed that the measurement model, all significant indicators measure each latent variable. Meanwhile in the structural model, it was concluded there are a significant difference between the variables of Leadership Style and Organizational Commitment toward Job Satisfaction directly as well as a significant difference between Job Satisfaction on Employee Performance. As for the influence of Leadership Style and variable Organizational Commitment on Employee Performance directly declared insignificant.

  20. Bayesian nonparametric clustering in phylogenetics: modeling antigenic evolution in influenza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cybis, Gabriela B; Sinsheimer, Janet S; Bedford, Trevor; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A

    2018-01-30

    Influenza is responsible for up to 500,000 deaths every year, and antigenic variability represents much of its epidemiological burden. To visualize antigenic differences across many viral strains, antigenic cartography methods use multidimensional scaling on binding assay data to map influenza antigenicity onto a low-dimensional space. Analysis of such assay data ideally leads to natural clustering of influenza strains of similar antigenicity that correlate with sequence evolution. To understand the dynamics of these antigenic groups, we present a framework that jointly models genetic and antigenic evolution by combining multidimensional scaling of binding assay data, Bayesian phylogenetic machinery and nonparametric clustering methods. We propose a phylogenetic Chinese restaurant process that extends the current process to incorporate the phylogenetic dependency structure between strains in the modeling of antigenic clusters. With this method, we are able to use the genetic information to better understand the evolution of antigenicity throughout epidemics, as shown in applications of this model to H1N1 influenza. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Bayesian averaging over Decision Tree models for trauma severity scoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schetinin, V; Jakaite, L; Krzanowski, W

    2018-01-01

    Health care practitioners analyse possible risks of misleading decisions and need to estimate and quantify uncertainty in predictions. We have examined the "gold" standard of screening a patient's conditions for predicting survival probability, based on logistic regression modelling, which is used in trauma care for clinical purposes and quality audit. This methodology is based on theoretical assumptions about data and uncertainties. Models induced within such an approach have exposed a number of problems, providing unexplained fluctuation of predicted survival and low accuracy of estimating uncertainty intervals within which predictions are made. Bayesian method, which in theory is capable of providing accurate predictions and uncertainty estimates, has been adopted in our study using Decision Tree models. Our approach has been tested on a large set of patients registered in the US National Trauma Data Bank and has outperformed the standard method in terms of prediction accuracy, thereby providing practitioners with accurate estimates of the predictive posterior densities of interest that are required for making risk-aware decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Bayesian network model of crowd emotion and negative behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramli, Nurulhuda; Ghani, Noraida Abdul; Hatta, Zulkarnain Ahmad; Hashim, Intan Hashimah Mohd; Sulong, Jasni; Mahudin, Nor Diana Mohd; Rahman, Shukran Abd; Saad, Zarina Mat

    2014-12-01

    The effects of overcrowding have become a major concern for event organizers. One aspect of this concern has been the idea that overcrowding can enhance the occurrence of serious incidents during events. As one of the largest Muslim religious gathering attended by pilgrims from all over the world, Hajj has become extremely overcrowded with many incidents being reported. The purpose of this study is to analyze the nature of human emotion and negative behavior resulting from overcrowding during Hajj events from data gathered in Malaysian Hajj Experience Survey in 2013. The sample comprised of 147 Malaysian pilgrims (70 males and 77 females). Utilizing a probabilistic model called Bayesian network, this paper models the dependence structure between different emotions and negative behaviors of pilgrims in the crowd. The model included the following variables of emotion: negative, negative comfortable, positive, positive comfortable and positive spiritual and variables of negative behaviors; aggressive and hazardous acts. The study demonstrated that emotions of negative, negative comfortable, positive spiritual and positive emotion have a direct influence on aggressive behavior whereas emotion of negative comfortable, positive spiritual and positive have a direct influence on hazardous acts behavior. The sensitivity analysis showed that a low level of negative and negative comfortable emotions leads to a lower level of aggressive and hazardous behavior. Findings of the study can be further improved to identify the exact cause and risk factors of crowd-related incidents in preventing crowd disasters during the mass gathering events.

  3. Bayesian models for astrophysical data using R, JAGS, Python, and Stan

    CERN Document Server

    Hilbe, Joseph M; Ishida, Emille E O

    2017-01-01

    This comprehensive guide to Bayesian methods in astronomy enables hands-on work by supplying complete R, JAGS, Python, and Stan code, to use directly or to adapt. It begins by examining the normal model from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives and then progresses to a full range of Bayesian generalized linear and mixed or hierarchical models, as well as additional types of models such as ABC and INLA. The book provides code that is largely unavailable elsewhere and includes details on interpreting and evaluating Bayesian models. Initial discussions offer models in synthetic form so that readers can easily adapt them to their own data; later the models are applied to real astronomical data. The consistent focus is on hands-on modeling, analysis of data, and interpretations that address scientific questions. A must-have for astronomers, its concrete approach will also be attractive to researchers in the sciences more generally.

  4. Continuous time modelling of dynamical spatial lattice data observed at sparsely distributed times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl; Møller, Jesper

    2007-01-01

    Summary. We consider statistical and computational aspects of simulation-based Bayesian inference for a spatial-temporal model based on a multivariate point process which is only observed at sparsely distributed times. The point processes are indexed by the sites of a spatial lattice......, and they exhibit spatial interaction. For specificity we consider a particular dynamical spatial lattice data set which has previously been analysed by a discrete time model involving unknown normalizing constants. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using continuous time processes compared...... with discrete time processes in the setting of the present paper as well as other spatial-temporal situations....

  5. Bayesian uncertainty quantification in linear models for diffusion MRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sjölund, Jens; Eklund, Anders; Özarslan, Evren; Herberthson, Magnus; Bånkestad, Maria; Knutsson, Hans

    2018-03-29

    Diffusion MRI (dMRI) is a valuable tool in the assessment of tissue microstructure. By fitting a model to the dMRI signal it is possible to derive various quantitative features. Several of the most popular dMRI signal models are expansions in an appropriately chosen basis, where the coefficients are determined using some variation of least-squares. However, such approaches lack any notion of uncertainty, which could be valuable in e.g. group analyses. In this work, we use a probabilistic interpretation of linear least-squares methods to recast popular dMRI models as Bayesian ones. This makes it possible to quantify the uncertainty of any derived quantity. In particular, for quantities that are affine functions of the coefficients, the posterior distribution can be expressed in closed-form. We simulated measurements from single- and double-tensor models where the correct values of several quantities are known, to validate that the theoretically derived quantiles agree with those observed empirically. We included results from residual bootstrap for comparison and found good agreement. The validation employed several different models: Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI), Mean Apparent Propagator MRI (MAP-MRI) and Constrained Spherical Deconvolution (CSD). We also used in vivo data to visualize maps of quantitative features and corresponding uncertainties, and to show how our approach can be used in a group analysis to downweight subjects with high uncertainty. In summary, we convert successful linear models for dMRI signal estimation to probabilistic models, capable of accurate uncertainty quantification. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Bayesian Regression of Thermodynamic Models of Redox Active Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, Katherine [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-09-01

    Finding a suitable functional redox material is a critical challenge to achieving scalable, economically viable technologies for storing concentrated solar energy in the form of a defected oxide. Demonstrating e ectiveness for thermal storage or solar fuel is largely accomplished by using a thermodynamic model derived from experimental data. The purpose of this project is to test the accuracy of our regression model on representative data sets. Determining the accuracy of the model includes parameter tting the model to the data, comparing the model using di erent numbers of param- eters, and analyzing the entropy and enthalpy calculated from the model. Three data sets were considered in this project: two demonstrating materials for solar fuels by wa- ter splitting and the other of a material for thermal storage. Using Bayesian Inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), parameter estimation was preformed on the three data sets. Good results were achieved, except some there was some deviations on the edges of the data input ranges. The evidence values were then calculated in a variety of ways and used to compare models with di erent number of parameters. It was believed that at least one of the parameters was unnecessary and comparing evidence values demonstrated that the parameter was need on one data set and not signi cantly helpful on another. The entropy was calculated by taking the derivative in one variable and integrating over another. and its uncertainty was also calculated by evaluating the entropy over multiple MCMC samples. Afterwards, all the parts were written up as a tutorial for the Uncertainty Quanti cation Toolkit (UQTk).

  7. Competition in spatial location models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Webers, H.M.

    1996-01-01

    Models of spatial competition are designed and analyzed to describe the fact that space, by its very nature, is a source of market power. This field of research, lying at the interface of game theory and economics, has attracted much interest because location problems are related to many aspects of

  8. An evaluation of the Bayesian approach to fitting the N-mixture model for use with pseudo-replicated count data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toribo, S.G.; Gray, B.R.; Liang, S.

    2011-01-01

    The N-mixture model proposed by Royle in 2004 may be used to approximate the abundance and detection probability of animal species in a given region. In 2006, Royle and Dorazio discussed the advantages of using a Bayesian approach in modelling animal abundance and occurrence using a hierarchical N-mixture model. N-mixture models assume replication on sampling sites, an assumption that may be violated when the site is not closed to changes in abundance during the survey period or when nominal replicates are defined spatially. In this paper, we studied the robustness of a Bayesian approach to fitting the N-mixture model for pseudo-replicated count data. Our simulation results showed that the Bayesian estimates for abundance and detection probability are slightly biased when the actual detection probability is small and are sensitive to the presence of extra variability within local sites.

  9. Bayesian modeling of JET Li-BES for edge electron density profiles using Gaussian processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Sehyun; Svensson, Jakob; Brix, Mathias; Ghim, Young-Chul; JET Contributors Collaboration

    2015-11-01

    A Bayesian model for the JET lithium beam emission spectroscopy (Li-BES) system has been developed to infer edge electron density profiles. The 26 spatial channels measure emission profiles with ~15 ms temporal resolution and ~1 cm spatial resolution. The lithium I (2p-2s) line radiation in an emission spectrum is calculated using a multi-state model, which expresses collisions between the neutral lithium beam atoms and the plasma particles as a set of differential equations. The emission spectrum is described in the model including photon and electronic noise, spectral line shapes, interference filter curves, and relative calibrations. This spectral modeling gets rid of the need of separate background measurements for calculating the intensity of the line radiation. Gaussian processes are applied to model both emission spectrum and edge electron density profile, and the electron temperature to calculate all the rate coefficients is obtained from the JET high resolution Thomson scattering (HRTS) system. The posterior distributions of the edge electron density profile are explored via the numerical technique and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplings. See the Appendix of F. Romanelli et al., Proceedings of the 25th IAEA Fusion Energy Conference 2014, Saint Petersburg, Russia.

  10. PDS-Modelling and Regional Bayesian Estimation of Extreme Rainfalls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan; Harremoës, Poul

    1994-01-01

    rainfalls. The method is applied to two variables: the total precipitation depth and the maximum 10-minute rain intensity of individual storms. On the basis of the atsite modelling a regional analysis is carried out. It is shown that the previous assumption of spatial homogeneity of extreme rainfalls...

  11. Macroscopic Models of Clique Tree Growth for Bayesian Networks

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In clique tree clustering, inference consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network. In this paper, we develop an analytical approach to...

  12. A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Glacial Dynamics Based on the Shallow Ice Approximation and its Evaluation Using Analytical Solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, Giri; Hrafnkelsson, Birgir; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Jarosch, Alexander H.; Pálsson, Finnur

    2018-03-01

    Bayesian hierarchical modeling can assist the study of glacial dynamics and ice flow properties. This approach will allow glaciologists to make fully probabilistic predictions for the thickness of a glacier at unobserved spatio-temporal coordinates, and it will also allow for the derivation of posterior probability distributions for key physical parameters such as ice viscosity and basal sliding. The goal of this paper is to develop a proof of concept for a Bayesian hierarchical model constructed, which uses exact analytical solutions for the shallow ice approximation (SIA) introduced by Bueler et al. (2005). A suite of test simulations utilizing these exact solutions suggests that this approach is able to adequately model numerical errors and produce useful physical parameter posterior distributions and predictions. A byproduct of the development of the Bayesian hierarchical model is the derivation of a novel finite difference method for solving the SIA partial differential equation (PDE). An additional novelty of this work is the correction of numerical errors induced through a numerical solution using a statistical model. This error correcting process models numerical errors that accumulate forward in time and spatial variation of numerical errors between the dome, interior, and margin of a glacier.

  13. Development of uncertainty-based work injury model using Bayesian structural equation modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Snehamoy

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposed a Bayesian method-based structural equation model (SEM) of miners' work injury for an underground coal mine in India. The environmental and behavioural variables for work injury were identified and causal relationships were developed. For Bayesian modelling, prior distributions of SEM parameters are necessary to develop the model. In this paper, two approaches were adopted to obtain prior distribution for factor loading parameters and structural parameters of SEM. In the first approach, the prior distributions were considered as a fixed distribution function with specific parameter values, whereas, in the second approach, prior distributions of the parameters were generated from experts' opinions. The posterior distributions of these parameters were obtained by applying Bayesian rule. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling in the form Gibbs sampling was applied for sampling from the posterior distribution. The results revealed that all coefficients of structural and measurement model parameters are statistically significant in experts' opinion-based priors, whereas, two coefficients are not statistically significant when fixed prior-based distributions are applied. The error statistics reveals that Bayesian structural model provides reasonably good fit of work injury with high coefficient of determination (0.91) and less mean squared error as compared to traditional SEM.

  14. Nitrate source apportionment in a subtropical watershed using Bayesian model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Liping; Han, Jiangpei; Xue, Jianlong; Zeng, Lingzao [College of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Subtropical Soil and Plant Nutrition, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 (China); Shi, Jiachun, E-mail: jcshi@zju.edu.cn [College of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Subtropical Soil and Plant Nutrition, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 (China); Wu, Laosheng, E-mail: laowu@zju.edu.cn [College of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Subtropical Soil and Plant Nutrition, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 (China); Jiang, Yonghai [State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, 100012 (China)

    2013-10-01

    Nitrate (NO{sub 3}{sup −}) pollution in aquatic system is a worldwide problem. The temporal distribution pattern and sources of nitrate are of great concern for water quality. The nitrogen (N) cycling processes in a subtropical watershed located in Changxing County, Zhejiang Province, China were greatly influenced by the temporal variations of precipitation and temperature during the study period (September 2011 to July 2012). The highest NO{sub 3}{sup −} concentration in water was in May (wet season, mean ± SD = 17.45 ± 9.50 mg L{sup −1}) and the lowest concentration occurred in December (dry season, mean ± SD = 10.54 ± 6.28 mg L{sup −1}). Nevertheless, no water sample in the study area exceeds the WHO drinking water limit of 50 mg L{sup −1} NO{sub 3}{sup −}. Four sources of NO{sub 3}{sup −} (atmospheric deposition, AD; soil N, SN; synthetic fertilizer, SF; manure and sewage, M and S) were identified using both hydrochemical characteristics [Cl{sup −}, NO{sub 3}{sup −}, HCO{sub 3}{sup −}, SO{sub 4}{sup 2−}, Ca{sup 2+}, K{sup +}, Mg{sup 2+}, Na{sup +}, dissolved oxygen (DO)] and dual isotope approach (δ{sup 15}N–NO{sub 3}{sup −} and δ{sup 18}O–NO{sub 3}{sup −}). Both chemical and isotopic characteristics indicated that denitrification was not the main N cycling process in the study area. Using a Bayesian model (stable isotope analysis in R, SIAR), the contribution of each source was apportioned. Source apportionment results showed that source contributions differed significantly between the dry and wet season, AD and M and S contributed more in December than in May. In contrast, SN and SF contributed more NO{sub 3}{sup −} to water in May than that in December. M and S and SF were the major contributors in December and May, respectively. Moreover, the shortcomings and uncertainties of SIAR were discussed to provide implications for future works. With the assessment of temporal variation and sources of NO{sub 3}{sup −}, better

  15. Nitrate source apportionment in a subtropical watershed using Bayesian model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Liping; Han, Jiangpei; Xue, Jianlong; Zeng, Lingzao; Shi, Jiachun; Wu, Laosheng; Jiang, Yonghai

    2013-01-01

    Nitrate (NO 3 − ) pollution in aquatic system is a worldwide problem. The temporal distribution pattern and sources of nitrate are of great concern for water quality. The nitrogen (N) cycling processes in a subtropical watershed located in Changxing County, Zhejiang Province, China were greatly influenced by the temporal variations of precipitation and temperature during the study period (September 2011 to July 2012). The highest NO 3 − concentration in water was in May (wet season, mean ± SD = 17.45 ± 9.50 mg L −1 ) and the lowest concentration occurred in December (dry season, mean ± SD = 10.54 ± 6.28 mg L −1 ). Nevertheless, no water sample in the study area exceeds the WHO drinking water limit of 50 mg L −1 NO 3 − . Four sources of NO 3 − (atmospheric deposition, AD; soil N, SN; synthetic fertilizer, SF; manure and sewage, M and S) were identified using both hydrochemical characteristics [Cl − , NO 3 − , HCO 3 − , SO 4 2− , Ca 2+ , K + , Mg 2+ , Na + , dissolved oxygen (DO)] and dual isotope approach (δ 15 N–NO 3 − and δ 18 O–NO 3 − ). Both chemical and isotopic characteristics indicated that denitrification was not the main N cycling process in the study area. Using a Bayesian model (stable isotope analysis in R, SIAR), the contribution of each source was apportioned. Source apportionment results showed that source contributions differed significantly between the dry and wet season, AD and M and S contributed more in December than in May. In contrast, SN and SF contributed more NO 3 − to water in May than that in December. M and S and SF were the major contributors in December and May, respectively. Moreover, the shortcomings and uncertainties of SIAR were discussed to provide implications for future works. With the assessment of temporal variation and sources of NO 3 − , better agricultural management practices and sewage disposal programs can be implemented to sustain water quality in subtropical watersheds

  16. Bayesian inference for partially identified models exploring the limits of limited data

    CERN Document Server

    Gustafson, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Identification What Is against Us? What Is for Us? Some Simple Examples of Partially Identified ModelsThe Road Ahead The Structure of Inference in Partially Identified Models Bayesian Inference The Structure of Posterior Distributions in PIMs Computational Strategies Strength of Bayesian Updating, Revisited Posterior MomentsCredible Intervals Evaluating the Worth of Inference Partial Identification versus Model Misspecification The Siren Call of Identification Comp

  17. Is a matrix exponential specification suitable for the modeling of spatial correlation structures?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauß, Magdalena E; Mezzetti, Maura; Leorato, Samantha

    2017-05-01

    This paper investigates the adequacy of the matrix exponential spatial specifications (MESS) as an alternative to the widely used spatial autoregressive models (SAR). To provide as complete a picture as possible, we extend the analysis to all the main spatial models governed by matrix exponentials comparing them with their spatial autoregressive counterparts. We propose a new implementation of Bayesian parameter estimation for the MESS model with vague prior distributions, which is shown to be precise and computationally efficient. Our implementations also account for spatially lagged regressors. We further allow for location-specific heterogeneity, which we model by including spatial splines. We conclude by comparing the performances of the different model specifications in applications to a real data set and by running simulations. Both the applications and the simulations suggest that the spatial splines are a flexible and efficient way to account for spatial heterogeneities governed by unknown mechanisms.

  18. Hybrid nested sampling algorithm for Bayesian model selection applied to inverse subsurface flow problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elsheikh, Ahmed H.; Wheeler, Mary F.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2014-01-01

    A Hybrid Nested Sampling (HNS) algorithm is proposed for efficient Bayesian model calibration and prior model selection. The proposed algorithm combines, Nested Sampling (NS) algorithm, Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling and gradient estimation using Stochastic Ensemble Method (SEM). NS is an efficient sampling algorithm that can be used for Bayesian calibration and estimating the Bayesian evidence for prior model selection. Nested sampling has the advantage of computational feasibility. Within the nested sampling algorithm, a constrained sampling step is performed. For this step, we utilize HMC to reduce the correlation between successive sampled states. HMC relies on the gradient of the logarithm of the posterior distribution, which we estimate using a stochastic ensemble method based on an ensemble of directional derivatives. SEM only requires forward model runs and the simulator is then used as a black box and no adjoint code is needed. The developed HNS algorithm is successfully applied for Bayesian calibration and prior model selection of several nonlinear subsurface flow problems

  19. Hybrid nested sampling algorithm for Bayesian model selection applied to inverse subsurface flow problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elsheikh, Ahmed H., E-mail: aelsheikh@ices.utexas.edu [Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences (ICES), University of Texas at Austin, TX (United States); Institute of Petroleum Engineering, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4AS (United Kingdom); Wheeler, Mary F. [Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences (ICES), University of Texas at Austin, TX (United States); Hoteit, Ibrahim [Department of Earth Sciences and Engineering, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal (Saudi Arabia)

    2014-02-01

    A Hybrid Nested Sampling (HNS) algorithm is proposed for efficient Bayesian model calibration and prior model selection. The proposed algorithm combines, Nested Sampling (NS) algorithm, Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling and gradient estimation using Stochastic Ensemble Method (SEM). NS is an efficient sampling algorithm that can be used for Bayesian calibration and estimating the Bayesian evidence for prior model selection. Nested sampling has the advantage of computational feasibility. Within the nested sampling algorithm, a constrained sampling step is performed. For this step, we utilize HMC to reduce the correlation between successive sampled states. HMC relies on the gradient of the logarithm of the posterior distribution, which we estimate using a stochastic ensemble method based on an ensemble of directional derivatives. SEM only requires forward model runs and the simulator is then used as a black box and no adjoint code is needed. The developed HNS algorithm is successfully applied for Bayesian calibration and prior model selection of several nonlinear subsurface flow problems.

  20. A Bayesian, generalized frailty model for comet assays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghebretinsae, Aklilu Habteab; Faes, Christel; Molenberghs, Geert; De Boeck, Marlies; Geys, Helena

    2013-05-01

    This paper proposes a flexible modeling approach for so-called comet assay data regularly encountered in preclinical research. While such data consist of non-Gaussian outcomes in a multilevel hierarchical structure, traditional analyses typically completely or partly ignore this hierarchical nature by summarizing measurements within a cluster. Non-Gaussian outcomes are often modeled using exponential family models. This is true not only for binary and count data, but also for, example, time-to-event outcomes. Two important reasons for extending this family are for (1) the possible occurrence of overdispersion, meaning that the variability in the data may not be adequately described by the models, which often exhibit a prescribed mean-variance link, and (2) the accommodation of a hierarchical structure in the data, owing to clustering in the data. The first issue is dealt with through so-called overdispersion models. Clustering is often accommodated through the inclusion of random subject-specific effects. Though not always, one conventionally assumes such random effects to be normally distributed. In the case of time-to-event data, one encounters, for example, the gamma frailty model (Duchateau and Janssen, 2007 ). While both of these issues may occur simultaneously, models combining both are uncommon. Molenberghs et al. ( 2010 ) proposed a broad class of generalized linear models accommodating overdispersion and clustering through two separate sets of random effects. Here, we use this method to model data from a comet assay with a three-level hierarchical structure. Although a conjugate gamma random effect is used for the overdispersion random effect, both gamma and normal random effects are considered for the hierarchical random effect. Apart from model formulation, we place emphasis on Bayesian estimation. Our proposed method has an upper hand over the traditional analysis in that it (1) uses the appropriate distribution stipulated in the literature; (2) deals

  1. Modern methodology and applications in spatial-temporal modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Matsui, Tomoko

    2015-01-01

    This book provides a modern introductory tutorial on specialized methodological and applied aspects of spatial and temporal modeling. The areas covered involve a range of topics which reflect the diversity of this domain of research across a number of quantitative disciplines. For instance, the first chapter deals with non-parametric Bayesian inference via a recently developed framework known as kernel mean embedding which has had a significant influence in machine learning disciplines. The second chapter takes up non-parametric statistical methods for spatial field reconstruction and exceedance probability estimation based on Gaussian process-based models in the context of wireless sensor network data. The third chapter presents signal-processing methods applied to acoustic mood analysis based on music signal analysis. The fourth chapter covers models that are applicable to time series modeling in the domain of speech and language processing. This includes aspects of factor analysis, independent component an...

  2. Reliability assessment using degradation models: bayesian and classical approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Afonso Freitas

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Traditionally, reliability assessment of devices has been based on (accelerated life tests. However, for highly reliable products, little information about reliability is provided by life tests in which few or no failures are typically observed. Since most failures arise from a degradation mechanism at work for which there are characteristics that degrade over time, one alternative is monitor the device for a period of time and assess its reliability from the changes in performance (degradation observed during that period. The goal of this article is to illustrate how degradation data can be modeled and analyzed by using "classical" and Bayesian approaches. Four methods of data analysis based on classical inference are presented. Next we show how Bayesian methods can also be used to provide a natural approach to analyzing degradation data. The approaches are applied to a real data set regarding train wheels degradation.Tradicionalmente, o acesso à confiabilidade de dispositivos tem sido baseado em testes de vida (acelerados. Entretanto, para produtos altamente confiáveis, pouca informação a respeito de sua confiabilidade é fornecida por testes de vida no quais poucas ou nenhumas falhas são observadas. Uma vez que boa parte das falhas é induzida por mecanismos de degradação, uma alternativa é monitorar o dispositivo por um período de tempo e acessar sua confiabilidade através das mudanças em desempenho (degradação observadas durante aquele período. O objetivo deste artigo é ilustrar como dados de degradação podem ser modelados e analisados utilizando-se abordagens "clássicas" e Bayesiana. Quatro métodos de análise de dados baseados em inferência clássica são apresentados. A seguir, mostramos como os métodos Bayesianos podem também ser aplicados para proporcionar uma abordagem natural à análise de dados de degradação. As abordagens são aplicadas a um banco de dados real relacionado à degradação de rodas de trens.

  3. Bayesian selection of misspecified models is overconfident and may cause spurious posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ziheng; Zhu, Tianqi

    2018-02-20

    The Bayesian method is noted to produce spuriously high posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees in analysis of large datasets, but the precise reasons for this overconfidence are unknown. In general, the performance of Bayesian selection of misspecified models is poorly understood, even though this is of great scientific interest since models are never true in real data analysis. Here we characterize the asymptotic behavior of Bayesian model selection and show that when the competing models are equally wrong, Bayesian model selection exhibits surprising and polarized behaviors in large datasets, supporting one model with full force while rejecting the others. If one model is slightly less wrong than the other, the less wrong model will eventually win when the amount of data increases, but the method may become overconfident before it becomes reliable. We suggest that this extreme behavior may be a major factor for the spuriously high posterior probabilities for evolutionary trees. The philosophical implications of our results to the application of Bayesian model selection to evaluate opposing scientific hypotheses are yet to be explored, as are the behaviors of non-Bayesian methods in similar situations.

  4. Bayesian models of cognition revisited: Setting optimality aside and letting data drive psychological theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tauber, Sean; Navarro, Daniel J; Perfors, Amy; Steyvers, Mark

    2017-07-01

    Recent debates in the psychological literature have raised questions about the assumptions that underpin Bayesian models of cognition and what inferences they license about human cognition. In this paper we revisit this topic, arguing that there are 2 qualitatively different ways in which a Bayesian model could be constructed. The most common approach uses a Bayesian model as a normative standard upon which to license a claim about optimality. In the alternative approach, a descriptive Bayesian model need not correspond to any claim that the underlying cognition is optimal or rational, and is used solely as a tool for instantiating a substantive psychological theory. We present 3 case studies in which these 2 perspectives lead to different computational models and license different conclusions about human cognition. We demonstrate how the descriptive Bayesian approach can be used to answer different sorts of questions than the optimal approach, especially when combined with principled tools for model evaluation and model selection. More generally we argue for the importance of making a clear distinction between the 2 perspectives. Considerable confusion results when descriptive models and optimal models are conflated, and if Bayesians are to avoid contributing to this confusion it is important to avoid making normative claims when none are intended. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation approximations for Gaussian latent variable models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vehtari, Aki; Mononen, Tommi; Tolvanen, Ville

    2016-01-01

    The future predictive performance of a Bayesian model can be estimated using Bayesian cross-validation. In this article, we consider Gaussian latent variable models where the integration over the latent values is approximated using the Laplace method or expectation propagation (EP). We study...... the properties of several Bayesian leave-one-out (LOO) cross-validation approximations that in most cases can be computed with a small additional cost after forming the posterior approximation given the full data. Our main objective is to assess the accuracy of the approximative LOO cross-validation estimators...

  6. Bayesian Safety Risk Modeling of Human-Flightdeck Automation Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

    2015-01-01

    Usage of automatic systems in airliners has increased fuel efficiency, added extra capabilities, enhanced safety and reliability, as well as provide improved passenger comfort since its introduction in the late 80's. However, original automation benefits, including reduced flight crew workload, human errors or training requirements, were not achieved as originally expected. Instead, automation introduced new failure modes, redistributed, and sometimes increased workload, brought in new cognitive and attention demands, and increased training requirements. Modern airliners have numerous flight modes, providing more flexibility (and inherently more complexity) to the flight crew. However, the price to pay for the increased flexibility is the need for increased mode awareness, as well as the need to supervise, understand, and predict automated system behavior. Also, over-reliance on automation is linked to manual flight skill degradation and complacency in commercial pilots. As a result, recent accidents involving human errors are often caused by the interactions between humans and the automated systems (e.g., the breakdown in man-machine coordination), deteriorated manual flying skills, and/or loss of situational awareness due to heavy dependence on automated systems. This paper describes the development of the increased complexity and reliance on automation baseline model, named FLAP for FLightdeck Automation Problems. The model development process starts with a comprehensive literature review followed by the construction of a framework comprised of high-level causal factors leading to an automation-related flight anomaly. The framework was then converted into a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) using the Hugin Software v7.8. The effects of automation on flight crew are incorporated into the model, including flight skill degradation, increased cognitive demand and training requirements along with their interactions. Besides flight crew deficiencies, automation system

  7. Bayesian joint modelling of benefit and risk in drug development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Maria J; Drury, Thomas

    2018-05-01

    To gain regulatory approval, a new medicine must demonstrate that its benefits outweigh any potential risks, ie, that the benefit-risk balance is favourable towards the new medicine. For transparency and clarity of the decision, a structured and consistent approach to benefit-risk assessment that quantifies uncertainties and accounts for underlying dependencies is desirable. This paper proposes two approaches to benefit-risk evaluation, both based on the idea of joint modelling of mixed outcomes that are potentially dependent at the subject level. Using Bayesian inference, the two approaches offer interpretability and efficiency to enhance qualitative frameworks. Simulation studies show that accounting for correlation leads to a more accurate assessment of the strength of evidence to support benefit-risk profiles of interest. Several graphical approaches are proposed that can be used to communicate the benefit-risk balance to project teams. Finally, the two approaches are illustrated in a case study using real clinical trial data. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Propagation of Uncertainty in Bayesian Kernel Models - Application to Multiple-Step Ahead Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quinonero, Joaquin; Girard, Agathe; Larsen, Jan

    2003-01-01

    The object of Bayesian modelling is predictive distribution, which, in a forecasting scenario, enables evaluation of forecasted values and their uncertainties. We focus on reliably estimating the predictive mean and variance of forecasted values using Bayesian kernel based models such as the Gaus......The object of Bayesian modelling is predictive distribution, which, in a forecasting scenario, enables evaluation of forecasted values and their uncertainties. We focus on reliably estimating the predictive mean and variance of forecasted values using Bayesian kernel based models...... such as the Gaussian process and the relevance vector machine. We derive novel analytic expressions for the predictive mean and variance for Gaussian kernel shapes under the assumption of a Gaussian input distribution in the static case, and of a recursive Gaussian predictive density in iterative forecasting...

  9. Digitized Onondaga Lake Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations and Model Simulated Values using Bayesian Monte Carlo Methods

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The dataset is lake dissolved oxygen concentrations obtained form plots published by Gelda et al. (1996) and lake reaeration model simulated values using Bayesian...

  10. Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal Reservoir Inflow Forecast using Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhopadhyay, S.; Arumugam, S.

    2017-12-01

    Sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) (15-90 days) streamflow forecasting is an emerging area of research that provides seamless information for reservoir operation from weather time scales to seasonal time scales. From an operational perspective, sub-seasonal inflow forecasts are highly valuable as these enable water managers to decide short-term releases (15-30 days), while holding water for seasonal needs (e.g., irrigation and municipal supply) and to meet end-of-the-season target storage at a desired level. We propose a Bayesian Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model (BHHMM) to develop S2S inflow forecasts for the Tennessee Valley Area (TVA) reservoir system. Here, the hidden states are predicted by relevant indices that influence the inflows at S2S time scale. The hidden Markov model also captures the both spatial and temporal hierarchy in predictors that operate at S2S time scale with model parameters being estimated as a posterior distribution using a Bayesian framework. We present our work in two steps, namely single site model and multi-site model. For proof of concept, we consider inflows to Douglas Dam, Tennessee, in the single site model. For multisite model we consider reservoirs in the upper Tennessee valley. Streamflow forecasts are issued and updated continuously every day at S2S time scale. We considered precipitation forecasts obtained from NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) GCM as predictors for developing S2S streamflow forecasts along with relevant indices for predicting hidden states. Spatial dependence of the inflow series of reservoirs are also preserved in the multi-site model. To circumvent the non-normality of the data, we consider the HMM in a Generalized Linear Model setting. Skill of the proposed approach is tested using split sample validation against a traditional multi-site canonical correlation model developed using the same set of predictors. From the posterior distribution of the inflow forecasts, we also highlight different system behavior

  11. How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models

    OpenAIRE

    Fenton, N.; Neil, M.; Lagnado, D.; Marsh, W.; Yet, B.; Constantinou, A.

    2016-01-01

    We show that existing Bayesian network (BN) modelling techniques cannot capture the correct intuitive reasoning in the important case when a set of mutually exclusive events need to be modelled as separate nodes instead of states of a single node. A previously proposed ‘solution’, which introduces a simple constraint node that enforces mutual exclusivity, fails to preserve the prior probabilities of the events, while other proposed solutions involve major changes to the original model. We pro...

  12. A comparison between Markovian models and Bayesian networks for treating some dependent events in reliability evaluations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duarte, Juliana P.; Leite, Victor C.; Melo, P.F. Frutuoso e, E-mail: julianapduarte@poli.ufrj.br, E-mail: victor.coppo.leite@poli.ufrj.br, E-mail: frutuoso@nuclear.ufrj.br [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Bayesian networks have become a very handy tool for solving problems in various application areas. This paper discusses the use of Bayesian networks to treat dependent events in reliability engineering typically modeled by Markovian models. Dependent events play an important role as, for example, when treating load-sharing systems, bridge systems, common-cause failures, and switching systems (those for which a standby component is activated after the main one fails by means of a switching mechanism). Repair plays an important role in all these cases (as, for example, the number of repairmen). All Bayesian network calculations are performed by means of the Netica™ software, of Norsys Software Corporation, and Fortran 90 to evaluate them over time. The discussion considers the development of time-dependent reliability figures of merit, which are easily obtained, through Markovian models, but not through Bayesian networks, because these latter need probability figures as input and not failure and repair rates. Bayesian networks produced results in very good agreement with those of Markov models and pivotal decomposition. Static and discrete time (DTBN) Bayesian networks were used in order to check their capabilities of modeling specific situations, like switching failures in cold-standby systems. The DTBN was more flexible to modeling systems where the time of occurrence of an event is important, for example, standby failure and repair. However, the static network model showed as good results as DTBN by a much more simplified approach. (author)

  13. A comparison between Markovian models and Bayesian networks for treating some dependent events in reliability evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duarte, Juliana P.; Leite, Victor C.; Melo, P.F. Frutuoso e

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian networks have become a very handy tool for solving problems in various application areas. This paper discusses the use of Bayesian networks to treat dependent events in reliability engineering typically modeled by Markovian models. Dependent events play an important role as, for example, when treating load-sharing systems, bridge systems, common-cause failures, and switching systems (those for which a standby component is activated after the main one fails by means of a switching mechanism). Repair plays an important role in all these cases (as, for example, the number of repairmen). All Bayesian network calculations are performed by means of the Netica™ software, of Norsys Software Corporation, and Fortran 90 to evaluate them over time. The discussion considers the development of time-dependent reliability figures of merit, which are easily obtained, through Markovian models, but not through Bayesian networks, because these latter need probability figures as input and not failure and repair rates. Bayesian networks produced results in very good agreement with those of Markov models and pivotal decomposition. Static and discrete time (DTBN) Bayesian networks were used in order to check their capabilities of modeling specific situations, like switching failures in cold-standby systems. The DTBN was more flexible to modeling systems where the time of occurrence of an event is important, for example, standby failure and repair. However, the static network model showed as good results as DTBN by a much more simplified approach. (author)

  14. Robust Determinants of Growth in Asian Developing Economies: A Bayesian Panel Data Model Averaging Approach

    OpenAIRE

    LEON-GONZALEZ, Roberto; VINAYAGATHASAN, Thanabalasingam

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the determinants of growth in the Asian developing economies. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in the context of a dynamic panel data growth regression to overcome the uncertainty over the choice of control variables. In addition, we use a Bayesian algorithm to analyze a large number of competing models. Among the explanatory variables, we include a non-linear function of inflation that allows for threshold effects. We use an unbalanced panel data set of 27 Asian ...

  15. Predicting water main failures using Bayesian model averaging and survival modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabir, Golam; Tesfamariam, Solomon; Sadiq, Rehan

    2015-01-01

    To develop an effective preventive or proactive repair and replacement action plan, water utilities often rely on water main failure prediction models. However, in predicting the failure of water mains, uncertainty is inherent regardless of the quality and quantity of data used in the model. To improve the understanding of water main failure, a Bayesian framework is developed for predicting the failure of water mains considering uncertainties. In this study, Bayesian model averaging method (BMA) is presented to identify the influential pipe-dependent and time-dependent covariates considering model uncertainties whereas Bayesian Weibull Proportional Hazard Model (BWPHM) is applied to develop the survival curves and to predict the failure rates of water mains. To accredit the proposed framework, it is implemented to predict the failure of cast iron (CI) and ductile iron (DI) pipes of the water distribution network of the City of Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Results indicate that the predicted 95% uncertainty bounds of the proposed BWPHMs capture effectively the observed breaks for both CI and DI water mains. Moreover, the performance of the proposed BWPHMs are better compare to the Cox-Proportional Hazard Model (Cox-PHM) for considering Weibull distribution for the baseline hazard function and model uncertainties. - Highlights: • Prioritize rehabilitation and replacements (R/R) strategies of water mains. • Consider the uncertainties for the failure prediction. • Improve the prediction capability of the water mains failure models. • Identify the influential and appropriate covariates for different models. • Determine the effects of the covariates on failure

  16. Bayesian Model Averaging of Artificial Intelligence Models for Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadiri, A.; Chitsazan, N.; Tsai, F. T.; Asghari Moghaddam, A.

    2012-12-01

    This research presents a Bayesian artificial intelligence model averaging (BAIMA) method that incorporates multiple artificial intelligence (AI) models to estimate hydraulic conductivity and evaluate estimation uncertainties. Uncertainty in the AI model outputs stems from error in model input as well as non-uniqueness in selecting different AI methods. Using one single AI model tends to bias the estimation and underestimate uncertainty. BAIMA employs Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique to address the issue of using one single AI model for estimation. BAIMA estimates hydraulic conductivity by averaging the outputs of AI models according to their model weights. In this study, the model weights were determined using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) that follows the parsimony principle. BAIMA calculates the within-model variances to account for uncertainty propagation from input data to AI model output. Between-model variances are evaluated to account for uncertainty due to model non-uniqueness. We employed Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logic (TS-FL), artificial neural network (ANN) and neurofuzzy (NF) to estimate hydraulic conductivity for the Tasuj plain aquifer, Iran. BAIMA combined three AI models and produced better fitting than individual models. While NF was expected to be the best AI model owing to its utilization of both TS-FL and ANN models, the NF model is nearly discarded by the parsimony principle. The TS-FL model and the ANN model showed equal importance although their hydraulic conductivity estimates were quite different. This resulted in significant between-model variances that are normally ignored by using one AI model.

  17. Bayesian network as a modelling tool for risk management in agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Svend; Madsen, Anders L.; Lund, Mogens

    . In this paper we use Bayesian networks as an integrated modelling approach for representing uncertainty and analysing risk management in agriculture. It is shown how historical farm account data may be efficiently used to estimate conditional probabilities, which are the core elements in Bayesian network models....... We further show how the Bayesian network model RiBay is used for stochastic simulation of farm income, and we demonstrate how RiBay can be used to simulate risk management at the farm level. It is concluded that the key strength of a Bayesian network is the transparency of assumptions......, and that it has the ability to link uncertainty from different external sources to budget figures and to quantify risk at the farm level....

  18. Bayesian Proteoform Modeling Improves Protein Quantification of Global Proteomic Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Matzke, Melissa M.; Datta, Susmita; Payne, Samuel H.; Kang, Jiyun; Bramer, Lisa M.; Nicora, Carrie D.; Shukla, Anil K.; Metz, Thomas O.; Rodland, Karin D.; Smith, Richard D.; Tardiff, Mark F.; McDermott, Jason E.; Pounds, Joel G.; Waters, Katrina M.

    2014-12-01

    As the capability of mass spectrometry-based proteomics has matured, tens of thousands of peptides can be measured simultaneously, which has the benefit of offering a systems view of protein expression. However, a major challenge is that with an increase in throughput, protein quantification estimation from the native measured peptides has become a computational task. A limitation to existing computationally-driven protein quantification methods is that most ignore protein variation, such as alternate splicing of the RNA transcript and post-translational modifications or other possible proteoforms, which will affect a significant fraction of the proteome. The consequence of this assumption is that statistical inference at the protein level, and consequently downstream analyses, such as network and pathway modeling, have only limited power for biomarker discovery. Here, we describe a Bayesian model (BP-Quant) that uses statistically derived peptides signatures to identify peptides that are outside the dominant pattern, or the existence of multiple over-expressed patterns to improve relative protein abundance estimates. It is a research-driven approach that utilizes the objectives of the experiment, defined in the context of a standard statistical hypothesis, to identify a set of peptides exhibiting similar statistical behavior relating to a protein. This approach infers that changes in relative protein abundance can be used as a surrogate for changes in function, without necessarily taking into account the effect of differential post-translational modifications, processing, or splicing in altering protein function. We verify the approach using a dilution study from mouse plasma samples and demonstrate that BP-Quant achieves similar accuracy as the current state-of-the-art methods at proteoform identification with significantly better specificity. BP-Quant is available as a MatLab ® and R packages at https://github.com/PNNL-Comp-Mass-Spec/BP-Quant.

  19. A Bayesian hierarchical model for demand curve analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Yen-Yi; Nhu Vo, Tien; Chu, Haitao; Luo, Xianghua; Le, Chap T

    2018-07-01

    Drug self-administration experiments are a frequently used approach to assessing the abuse liability and reinforcing property of a compound. It has been used to assess the abuse liabilities of various substances such as psychomotor stimulants and hallucinogens, food, nicotine, and alcohol. The demand curve generated from a self-administration study describes how demand of a drug or non-drug reinforcer varies as a function of price. With the approval of the 2009 Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act, demand curve analysis provides crucial evidence to inform the US Food and Drug Administration's policy on tobacco regulation, because it produces several important quantitative measurements to assess the reinforcing strength of nicotine. The conventional approach popularly used to analyze the demand curve data is individual-specific non-linear least square regression. The non-linear least square approach sets out to minimize the residual sum of squares for each subject in the dataset; however, this one-subject-at-a-time approach does not allow for the estimation of between- and within-subject variability in a unified model framework. In this paper, we review the existing approaches to analyze the demand curve data, non-linear least square regression, and the mixed effects regression and propose a new Bayesian hierarchical model. We conduct simulation analyses to compare the performance of these three approaches and illustrate the proposed approaches in a case study of nicotine self-administration in rats. We present simulation results and discuss the benefits of using the proposed approaches.

  20. Mixed linear-nonlinear fault slip inversion: Bayesian inference of model, weighting, and smoothing parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukuda, J.; Johnson, K. M.

    2009-12-01

    Studies utilizing inversions of geodetic data for the spatial distribution of coseismic slip on faults typically present the result as a single fault plane and slip distribution. Commonly the geometry of the fault plane is assumed to be known a priori and the data are inverted for slip. However, sometimes there is not strong a priori information on the geometry of the fault that produced the earthquake and the data is not always strong enough to completely resolve the fault geometry. We develop a method to solve for the full posterior probability distribution of fault slip and fault geometry parameters in a Bayesian framework using Monte Carlo methods. The slip inversion problem is particularly challenging because it often involves multiple data sets with unknown relative weights (e.g. InSAR, GPS), model parameters that are related linearly (slip) and nonlinearly (fault geometry) through the theoretical model to surface observations, prior information on model parameters, and a regularization prior to stabilize the inversion. We present the theoretical framework and solution method for a Bayesian inversion that can handle all of these aspects of the problem. The method handles the mixed linear/nonlinear nature of the problem through combination of both analytical least-squares solutions and Monte Carlo methods. We first illustrate and validate the inversion scheme using synthetic data sets. We then apply the method to inversion of geodetic data from the 2003 M6.6 San Simeon, California earthquake. We show that the uncertainty in strike and dip of the fault plane is over 20 degrees. We characterize the uncertainty in the slip estimate with a volume around the mean fault solution in which the slip most likely occurred. Slip likely occurred somewhere in a volume that extends 5-10 km in either direction normal to the fault plane. We implement slip inversions with both traditional, kinematic smoothing constraints on slip and a simple physical condition of uniform stress

  1. Evaluating Vegetation Potential for Wildfire Impacted Watershed Using a Bayesian Network Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaramillo, L. V.; Stone, M. C.; Morrison, R. R.

    2017-12-01

    Decision-making for natural resource management is complex especially for fire impacted watersheds in the Southwestern US because of the vital importance of water resources, exorbitant cost of fire management and restoration, and the risks of the wildland-urban interface (WUI). While riparian and terrestrial vegetation are extremely important to ecosystem health and provide ecosystem services, loss of vegetation due to wildfire, post-fire flooding, and debris flows can lead to further degradation of the watershed and increased vulnerability to erosion and debris flow. Land managers are charged with taking measures to mitigate degradation of the watershed effectively and efficiently with limited time, money, and data. For our study, a Bayesian network (BN) approach is implemented to understand vegetation potential for Kashe-Katuwe Tent Rocks National Monument in the fire-impacted Peralta Canyon Watershed, New Mexico, USA. We implement both two-dimensional hydrodynamic and Bayesian network modeling to incorporate spatial variability in the system. Our coupled modeling framework presents vegetation recruitment and succession potential for three representative plant types (native riparian, native terrestrial, and non-native) under several hydrologic scenarios and management actions. In our BN model, we use variables that address timing, hydrologic, and groundwater conditions as well as recruitment and succession constraints for the plant types based on expert knowledge and literature. Our approach allows us to utilize small and incomplete data, incorporate expert knowledge, and explicitly account for uncertainty in the system. Our findings can be used to help land managers and local decision-makers determine their plan of action to increase watershed health and resilience.

  2. Spatial modelling with R-INLA: A review

    KAUST Repository

    Bakka, Haakon; Rue, Haavard; Fuglstad, Geir-Arne; Riebler, Andrea; Bolin, David; Krainski, Elias; Simpson, Daniel; Lindgren, Finn

    2018-01-01

    Coming up with Bayesian models for spatial data is easy, but performing inference with them can be challenging. Writing fast inference code for a complex spatial model with realistically-sized datasets from scratch is time-consuming, and if changes are made to the model, there is little guarantee that the code performs well. The key advantages of R-INLA are the ease with which complex models can be created and modified, without the need to write complex code, and the speed at which inference can be done even for spatial problems with hundreds of thousands of observations. R-INLA handles latent Gaussian models, where fixed effects, structured and unstructured Gaussian random effects are combined linearly in a linear predictor, and the elements of the linear predictor are observed through one or more likelihoods. The structured random effects can be both standard areal model such as the Besag and the BYM models, and geostatistical models from a subset of the Mat\\'ern Gaussian random fields. In this review, we discuss the large success of spatial modelling with R-INLA and the types of spatial models that can be fitted, we give an overview of recent developments for areal models, and we give an overview of the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach and some of the ways it can be extended beyond the assumptions of isotropy and separability. In particular, we describe how slight changes to the SPDE approach leads to straight-forward approaches for non-stationary spatial models and non-separable space-time models.

  3. Spatial modelling with R-INLA: A review

    KAUST Repository

    Bakka, Haakon

    2018-02-18

    Coming up with Bayesian models for spatial data is easy, but performing inference with them can be challenging. Writing fast inference code for a complex spatial model with realistically-sized datasets from scratch is time-consuming, and if changes are made to the model, there is little guarantee that the code performs well. The key advantages of R-INLA are the ease with which complex models can be created and modified, without the need to write complex code, and the speed at which inference can be done even for spatial problems with hundreds of thousands of observations. R-INLA handles latent Gaussian models, where fixed effects, structured and unstructured Gaussian random effects are combined linearly in a linear predictor, and the elements of the linear predictor are observed through one or more likelihoods. The structured random effects can be both standard areal model such as the Besag and the BYM models, and geostatistical models from a subset of the Mat\\\\\\'ern Gaussian random fields. In this review, we discuss the large success of spatial modelling with R-INLA and the types of spatial models that can be fitted, we give an overview of recent developments for areal models, and we give an overview of the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach and some of the ways it can be extended beyond the assumptions of isotropy and separability. In particular, we describe how slight changes to the SPDE approach leads to straight-forward approaches for non-stationary spatial models and non-separable space-time models.

  4. Applications of Bayesian approach in modelling risk of malaria-related hospital mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simbeye Jupiter S

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a major public health problem in Malawi, however, quantifying its burden in a population is a challenge. Routine hospital data provide a proxy for measuring the incidence of severe malaria and for crudely estimating morbidity rates. Using such data, this paper proposes a method to describe trends, patterns and factors associated with in-hospital mortality attributed to the disease. Methods We develop semiparametric regression models which allow joint analysis of nonlinear effects of calendar time and continuous covariates, spatially structured variation, unstructured heterogeneity, and other fixed covariates. Modelling and inference use the fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulation techniques. The methodology is applied to analyse data arising from paediatric wards in Zomba district, Malawi, between 2002 and 2003. Results and Conclusion We observe that the risk of dying in hospital is lower in the dry season, and for children who travel a distance of less than 5 kms to the hospital, but increases for those who are referred to the hospital. The results also indicate significant differences in both structured and unstructured spatial effects, and the health facility effects reveal considerable differences by type of facility or practice. More importantly, our approach shows non-linearities in the effect of metrical covariates on the probability of dying in hospital. The study emphasizes that the methodological framework used provides a useful tool for analysing the data at hand and of similar structure.

  5. A Bayesian Approach for Summarizing and Modeling Time-Series Exposure Data with Left Censoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houseman, E Andres; Virji, M Abbas

    2017-08-01

    Direct reading instruments are valuable tools for measuring exposure as they provide real-time measurements for rapid decision making. However, their use is limited to general survey applications in part due to issues related to their performance. Moreover, statistical analysis of real-time data is complicated by autocorrelation among successive measurements, non-stationary time series, and the presence of left-censoring due to limit-of-detection (LOD). A Bayesian framework is proposed that accounts for non-stationary autocorrelation and LOD issues in exposure time-series data in order to model workplace factors that affect exposure and estimate summary statistics for tasks or other covariates of interest. A spline-based approach is used to model non-stationary autocorrelation with relatively few assumptions about autocorrelation structure. Left-censoring is addressed by integrating over the left tail of the distribution. The model is fit using Markov-Chain Monte Carlo within a Bayesian paradigm. The method can flexibly account for hierarchical relationships, random effects and fixed effects of covariates. The method is implemented using the rjags package in R, and is illustrated by applying it to real-time exposure data. Estimates for task means and covariates from the Bayesian model are compared to those from conventional frequentist models including linear regression, mixed-effects, and time-series models with different autocorrelation structures. Simulations studies are also conducted to evaluate method performance. Simulation studies with percent of measurements below the LOD ranging from 0 to 50% showed lowest root mean squared errors for task means and the least biased standard deviations from the Bayesian model compared to the frequentist models across all levels of LOD. In the application, task means from the Bayesian model were similar to means from the frequentist models, while the standard deviations were different. Parameter estimates for covariates

  6. Bayesian estimation of regularization parameters for deformable surface models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cunningham, G.S.; Lehovich, A.; Hanson, K.M.

    1999-01-01

    In this article the authors build on their past attempts to reconstruct a 3D, time-varying bolus of radiotracer from first-pass data obtained by the dynamic SPECT imager, FASTSPECT, built by the University of Arizona. The object imaged is a CardioWest total artificial heart. The bolus is entirely contained in one ventricle and its associated inlet and outlet tubes. The model for the radiotracer distribution at a given time is a closed surface parameterized by 482 vertices that are connected to make 960 triangles, with nonuniform intensity variations of radiotracer allowed inside the surface on a voxel-to-voxel basis. The total curvature of the surface is minimized through the use of a weighted prior in the Bayesian framework, as is the weighted norm of the gradient of the voxellated grid. MAP estimates for the vertices, interior intensity voxels and background count level are produced. The strength of the priors, or hyperparameters, are determined by maximizing the probability of the data given the hyperparameters, called the evidence. The evidence is calculated by first assuming that the posterior is approximately normal in the values of the vertices and voxels, and then by evaluating the integral of the multi-dimensional normal distribution. This integral (which requires evaluating the determinant of a covariance matrix) is computed by applying a recent algorithm from Bai et. al. that calculates the needed determinant efficiently. They demonstrate that the radiotracer is highly inhomogeneous in early time frames, as suspected in earlier reconstruction attempts that assumed a uniform intensity of radiotracer within the closed surface, and that the optimal choice of hyperparameters is substantially different for different time frames

  7. Epigenetic change detection and pattern recognition via Bayesian hierarchical hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xinlei; Zang, Miao; Xiao, Guanghua

    2013-06-15

    Epigenetics is the study of changes to the genome that can switch genes on or off and determine which proteins are transcribed without altering the DNA sequence. Recently, epigenetic changes have been linked to the development and progression of disease such as psychiatric disorders. High-throughput epigenetic experiments have enabled researchers to measure genome-wide epigenetic profiles and yield data consisting of intensity ratios of immunoprecipitation versus reference samples. The intensity ratios can provide a view of genomic regions where protein binding occur under one experimental condition and further allow us to detect epigenetic alterations through comparison between two different conditions. However, such experiments can be expensive, with only a few replicates available. Moreover, epigenetic data are often spatially correlated with high noise levels. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model, combined with hidden Markov processes with four states for modeling spatial dependence, to detect genomic sites with epigenetic changes from two-sample experiments with paired internal control. One attractive feature of the proposed method is that the four states of the hidden Markov process have well-defined biological meanings and allow us to directly call the change patterns based on the corresponding posterior probabilities. In contrast, none of existing methods can offer this advantage. In addition, the proposed method offers great power in statistical inference by spatial smoothing (via hidden Markov modeling) and information pooling (via hierarchical modeling). Both simulation studies and real data analysis in a cocaine addiction study illustrate the reliability and success of this method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Bayesian Subset Modeling for High-Dimensional Generalized Linear Models

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming; Song, Qifan; Yu, Kai

    2013-01-01

    criterion model. The consistency of the resulting posterior is established under mild conditions. Further, a variable screening procedure is proposed based on the marginal inclusion probability, which shares the same properties of sure screening

  9. Bayesian model calibration of computational models in velocimetry diagnosed dynamic compression experiments.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Justin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-02-01

    Dynamic compression experiments are being performed on complicated materials using increasingly complex drivers. The data produced in these experiments are beginning to reach a regime where traditional analysis techniques break down; requiring the solution of an inverse problem. A common measurement in dynamic experiments is an interface velocity as a function of time, and often this functional output can be simulated using a hydrodynamics code. Bayesian model calibration is a statistical framework to estimate inputs into a computational model in the presence of multiple uncertainties, making it well suited to measurements of this type. In this article, we apply Bayesian model calibration to high pressure (250 GPa) ramp compression measurements in tantalum. We address several issues speci c to this calibration including the functional nature of the output as well as parameter and model discrepancy identi ability. Speci cally, we propose scaling the likelihood function by an e ective sample size rather than modeling the autocorrelation function to accommodate the functional output and propose sensitivity analyses using the notion of `modularization' to assess the impact of experiment-speci c nuisance input parameters on estimates of material properties. We conclude that the proposed Bayesian model calibration procedure results in simple, fast, and valid inferences on the equation of state parameters for tantalum.

  10. BAYESIAN FORECASTS COMBINATION TO IMPROVE THE ROMANIAN INFLATION PREDICTIONS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela Simionescu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available There are many types of econometric models used in predicting the inflation rate, but in this study we used a Bayesian shrinkage combination approach. This methodology is used in order to improve the predictions accuracy by including information that is not captured by the econometric models. Therefore, experts’ forecasts are utilized as prior information, for Romania these predictions being provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting (Dobrescu macromodel, National Commission for Prognosis and European Commission. The empirical results for Romanian inflation show the superiority of a fixed effects model compared to other types of econometric models like VAR, Bayesian VAR, simultaneous equations model, dynamic model, log-linear model. The Bayesian combinations that used experts’ predictions as priors, when the shrinkage parameter tends to infinite, improved the accuracy of all forecasts based on individual models, outperforming also zero and equal weights predictions and naïve forecasts.

  11. Estimating safety effects of pavement management factors utilizing Bayesian random effect models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Ximiao; Huang, Baoshan; Zaretzki, Russell L; Richards, Stephen; Yan, Xuedong

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies of pavement management factors that relate to the occurrence of traffic-related crashes are rare. Traditional research has mostly employed summary statistics of bidirectional pavement quality measurements in extended longitudinal road segments over a long time period, which may cause a loss of important information and result in biased parameter estimates. The research presented in this article focuses on crash risk of roadways with overall fair to good pavement quality. Real-time and location-specific data were employed to estimate the effects of pavement management factors on the occurrence of crashes. This research is based on the crash data and corresponding pavement quality data for the Tennessee state route highways from 2004 to 2009. The potential temporal and spatial correlations among observations caused by unobserved factors were considered. Overall 6 models were built accounting for no correlation, temporal correlation only, and both the temporal and spatial correlations. These models included Poisson, negative binomial (NB), one random effect Poisson and negative binomial (OREP, ORENB), and two random effect Poisson and negative binomial (TREP, TRENB) models. The Bayesian method was employed to construct these models. The inference is based on the posterior distribution from the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. These models were compared using the deviance information criterion. Analysis of the posterior distribution of parameter coefficients indicates that the pavement management factors indexed by Present Serviceability Index (PSI) and Pavement Distress Index (PDI) had significant impacts on the occurrence of crashes, whereas the variable rutting depth was not significant. Among other factors, lane width, median width, type of terrain, and posted speed limit were significant in affecting crash frequency. The findings of this study indicate that a reduction in pavement roughness would reduce the likelihood of traffic

  12. Use of SAMC for Bayesian analysis of statistical models with intractable normalizing constants

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Ick Hoon

    2014-03-01

    Statistical inference for the models with intractable normalizing constants has attracted much attention. During the past two decades, various approximation- or simulation-based methods have been proposed for the problem, such as the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method and the auxiliary variable Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm specifically addresses this problem: It works by sampling from a sequence of approximate distributions with their average converging to the target posterior distribution, where the approximate distributions can be achieved using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm. A strong law of large numbers is established for the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo estimator under mild conditions. Compared to the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method, the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm is more robust to the initial guess of model parameters. Compared to the auxiliary variable MCMC methods, the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm avoids the requirement for perfect samples, and thus can be applied to many models for which perfect sampling is not available or very expensive. The Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm also provides a general framework for approximate Bayesian analysis. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Bayesian modeling to assess populated areas impacted by radiation from Fukushima

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hultquist, C.; Cervone, G.

    2017-12-01

    Citizen-led movements producing spatio-temporal big data are increasingly important sources of information about populations that are impacted by natural disasters. Citizen science can be used to fill gaps in disaster monitoring data, in addition to inferring human exposure and vulnerability to extreme environmental impacts. As a response to the 2011 release of radiation from Fukushima, Japan, the Safecast project began collecting open radiation data which grew to be a global dataset of over 70 million measurements to date. This dataset is spatially distributed primarily where humans are located and demonstrates abnormal patterns of population movements as a result of the disaster. Previous work has demonstrated that Safecast is highly correlated in comparison to government radiation observations. However, there is still a scientific need to understand the geostatistical variability of Safecast data and to assess how reliable the data are over space and time. The Bayesian hierarchical approach can be used to model the spatial distribution of datasets and flexibly integrate new flows of data without losing previous information. This enables an understanding of uncertainty in the spatio-temporal data to inform decision makers on areas of high levels of radiation where populations are located. Citizen science data can be scientifically evaluated and used as a critical source of information about populations that are impacted by a disaster.

  14. Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of Schistosoma japonicum prevalence data in the absence of a diagnostic 'gold' standard.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian-Hong Wang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Spatial modeling is increasingly utilized to elucidate relationships between demographic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors, and infectious disease prevalence data. However, there is a paucity of studies focusing on spatio-temporal modeling that take into account the uncertainty of diagnostic techniques. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We obtained Schistosoma japonicum prevalence data, based on a standardized indirect hemagglutination assay (IHA, from annual reports from 114 schistosome-endemic villages in Dangtu County, southeastern part of the People's Republic of China, for the period 1995 to 2004. Environmental data were extracted from satellite images. Socioeconomic data were available from village registries. We used Bayesian spatio-temporal models, accounting for the sensitivity and specificity of the IHA test via an equation derived from the law of total probability, to relate the observed with the 'true' prevalence. The risk of S. japonicum was positively associated with the mean land surface temperature, and negatively correlated with the mean normalized difference vegetation index and distance to the nearest water body. There was no significant association between S. japonicum and socioeconomic status of the villages surveyed. The spatial correlation structures of the observed S. japonicum seroprevalence and the estimated infection prevalence differed from one year to another. Variance estimates based on a model adjusted for the diagnostic error were larger than unadjusted models. The generated prediction map for 2005 showed that most of the former and current infections occur in close proximity to the Yangtze River. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Bayesian spatial-temporal modeling incorporating diagnostic uncertainty is a suitable approach for risk mapping S. japonicum prevalence data. The Yangtze River and its tributaries govern schistosomiasis transmission in Dangtu County, but spatial correlation needs to be taken

  15. Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of Schistosoma japonicum prevalence data in the absence of a diagnostic 'gold' standard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xian-Hong; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Vounatsou, Penelope; Chen, Zhao; Utzinger, Jürg; Yang, Kun; Steinmann, Peter; Wu, Xiao-Hua

    2008-06-11

    Spatial modeling is increasingly utilized to elucidate relationships between demographic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors, and infectious disease prevalence data. However, there is a paucity of studies focusing on spatio-temporal modeling that take into account the uncertainty of diagnostic techniques. We obtained Schistosoma japonicum prevalence data, based on a standardized indirect hemagglutination assay (IHA), from annual reports from 114 schistosome-endemic villages in Dangtu County, southeastern part of the People's Republic of China, for the period 1995 to 2004. Environmental data were extracted from satellite images. Socioeconomic data were available from village registries. We used Bayesian spatio-temporal models, accounting for the sensitivity and specificity of the IHA test via an equation derived from the law of total probability, to relate the observed with the 'true' prevalence. The risk of S. japonicum was positively associated with the mean land surface temperature, and negatively correlated with the mean normalized difference vegetation index and distance to the nearest water body. There was no significant association between S. japonicum and socioeconomic status of the villages surveyed. The spatial correlation structures of the observed S. japonicum seroprevalence and the estimated infection prevalence differed from one year to another. Variance estimates based on a model adjusted for the diagnostic error were larger than unadjusted models. The generated prediction map for 2005 showed that most of the former and current infections occur in close proximity to the Yangtze River. Bayesian spatial-temporal modeling incorporating diagnostic uncertainty is a suitable approach for risk mapping S. japonicum prevalence data. The Yangtze River and its tributaries govern schistosomiasis transmission in Dangtu County, but spatial correlation needs to be taken into consideration when making risk prediction at small scales.

  16. Bayesian data fusion for spatial prediction of categorical variables in environmental sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gengler, Sarah; Bogaert, Patrick

    2014-12-01

    First developed to predict continuous variables, Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) has become a complete framework in the context of space-time prediction since it has been extended to predict categorical variables and mixed random fields. This method proposes solutions to combine several sources of data whatever the nature of the information. However, the various attempts that were made for adapting the BME methodology to categorical variables and mixed random fields faced some limitations, as a high computational burden. The main objective of this paper is to overcome this limitation by generalizing the Bayesian Data Fusion (BDF) theoretical framework to categorical variables, which is somehow a simplification of the BME method through the convenient conditional independence hypothesis. The BDF methodology for categorical variables is first described and then applied to a practical case study: the estimation of soil drainage classes using a soil map and point observations in the sandy area of Flanders around the city of Mechelen (Belgium). The BDF approach is compared to BME along with more classical approaches, as Indicator CoKringing (ICK) and logistic regression. Estimators are compared using various indicators, namely the Percentage of Correctly Classified locations (PCC) and the Average Highest Probability (AHP). Although BDF methodology for categorical variables is somehow a simplification of BME approach, both methods lead to similar results and have strong advantages compared to ICK and logistic regression.

  17. Bayesian data fusion for spatial prediction of categorical variables in environmental sciences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gengler, Sarah; Bogaert, Patrick

    2014-01-01

    First developed to predict continuous variables, Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) has become a complete framework in the context of space-time prediction since it has been extended to predict categorical variables and mixed random fields. This method proposes solutions to combine several sources of data whatever the nature of the information. However, the various attempts that were made for adapting the BME methodology to categorical variables and mixed random fields faced some limitations, as a high computational burden. The main objective of this paper is to overcome this limitation by generalizing the Bayesian Data Fusion (BDF) theoretical framework to categorical variables, which is somehow a simplification of the BME method through the convenient conditional independence hypothesis. The BDF methodology for categorical variables is first described and then applied to a practical case study: the estimation of soil drainage classes using a soil map and point observations in the sandy area of Flanders around the city of Mechelen (Belgium). The BDF approach is compared to BME along with more classical approaches, as Indicator CoKringing (ICK) and logistic regression. Estimators are compared using various indicators, namely the Percentage of Correctly Classified locations (PCC) and the Average Highest Probability (AHP). Although BDF methodology for categorical variables is somehow a simplification of BME approach, both methods lead to similar results and have strong advantages compared to ICK and logistic regression

  18. Bayesian biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Lesaffre, Emmanuel

    2012-01-01

    The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd

  19. Monitoring Murder Crime in Namibia Using Bayesian Space-Time Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isak Neema

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the analysis of murder in Namibia using Bayesian spatial smoothing approach with temporal trends. The analysis was based on the reported cases from 13 regions of Namibia for the period 2002–2006 complemented with regional population sizes. The evaluated random effects include space-time structured heterogeneity measuring the effect of regional clustering, unstructured heterogeneity, time, space and time interaction and population density. The model consists of carefully chosen prior and hyper-prior distributions for parameters and hyper-parameters, with inference conducted using Gibbs sampling algorithm and sensitivity test for model validation. The posterior mean estimate of the parameters from the model using DIC as model selection criteria show that most of the variation in the relative risk of murder is due to regional clustering, while the effect of population density and time was insignificant. The sensitivity analysis indicates that both intrinsic and Laplace CAR prior can be adopted as prior distribution for the space-time heterogeneity. In addition, the relative risk map show risk structure of increasing north-south gradient, pointing to low risk in northern regions of Namibia, while Karas and Khomas region experience long-term increase in murder risk.

  20. Parameterizing Bayesian network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models by Expert Elicitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, Stephen J.; Dalton, Angela C.; Whitney, Paul D.; White, Amanda M.

    2010-05-23

    Bayesian networks provide a general framework with which to model many natural phenomena. The mathematical nature of Bayesian networks enables a plethora of model validation and calibration techniques: e.g parameter estimation, goodness of fit tests, and diagnostic checking of the model assumptions. However, they are not free of shortcomings. Parameter estimation from relevant extant data is a common approach to calibrating the model parameters. In practice it is not uncommon to find oneself lacking adequate data to reliably estimate all model parameters. In this paper we present the early development of a novel application of conjoint analysis as a method for eliciting and modeling expert opinions and using the results in a methodology for calibrating the parameters of a Bayesian network.

  1. Fast and accurate Bayesian model criticism and conflict diagnostics using R-INLA

    KAUST Repository

    Ferkingstad, Egil

    2017-10-16

    Bayesian hierarchical models are increasingly popular for realistic modelling and analysis of complex data. This trend is accompanied by the need for flexible, general and computationally efficient methods for model criticism and conflict detection. Usually, a Bayesian hierarchical model incorporates a grouping of the individual data points, as, for example, with individuals in repeated measurement data. In such cases, the following question arises: Are any of the groups “outliers,” or in conflict with the remaining groups? Existing general approaches aiming to answer such questions tend to be extremely computationally demanding when model fitting is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo. We show how group-level model criticism and conflict detection can be carried out quickly and accurately through integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA). The new method is implemented as a part of the open-source R-INLA package for Bayesian computing (http://r-inla.org).

  2. Bayesian Analysis of Geostatistical Models With an Auxiliary Lattice

    KAUST Repository

    Park, Jincheol

    2012-04-01

    The Gaussian geostatistical model has been widely used for modeling spatial data. However, this model suffers from a severe difficulty in computation: it requires users to invert a large covariance matrix. This is infeasible when the number of observations is large. In this article, we propose an auxiliary lattice-based approach for tackling this difficulty. By introducing an auxiliary lattice to the space of observations and defining a Gaussian Markov random field on the auxiliary lattice, our model completely avoids the requirement of matrix inversion. It is remarkable that the computational complexity of our method is only O(n), where n is the number of observations. Hence, our method can be applied to very large datasets with reasonable computational (CPU) times. The numerical results indicate that our model can approximate Gaussian random fields very well in terms of predictions, even for those with long correlation lengths. For real data examples, our model can generally outperform conventional Gaussian random field models in both prediction errors and CPU times. Supplemental materials for the article are available online. © 2012 American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and Interface Foundation of North America.

  3. Probabilistic Inference: Task Dependency and Individual Differences of Probability Weighting Revealed by Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boos, Moritz; Seer, Caroline; Lange, Florian; Kopp, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive determinants of probabilistic inference were examined using hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques. A classic urn-ball paradigm served as experimental strategy, involving a factorial two (prior probabilities) by two (likelihoods) design. Five computational models of cognitive processes were compared with the observed behavior. Parameter-free Bayesian posterior probabilities and parameter-free base rate neglect provided inadequate models of probabilistic inference. The introduction of distorted subjective probabilities yielded more robust and generalizable results. A general class of (inverted) S-shaped probability weighting functions had been proposed; however, the possibility of large differences in probability distortions not only across experimental conditions, but also across individuals, seems critical for the model's success. It also seems advantageous to consider individual differences in parameters of probability weighting as being sampled from weakly informative prior distributions of individual parameter values. Thus, the results from hierarchical Bayesian modeling converge with previous results in revealing that probability weighting parameters show considerable task dependency and individual differences. Methodologically, this work exemplifies the usefulness of hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques for cognitive psychology. Theoretically, human probabilistic inference might be best described as the application of individualized strategic policies for Bayesian belief revision.

  4. Multi-scale inference of interaction rules in animal groups using Bayesian model selection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard P Mann

    Full Text Available Inference of interaction rules of animals moving in groups usually relies on an analysis of large scale system behaviour. Models are tuned through repeated simulation until they match the observed behaviour. More recent work has used the fine scale motions of animals to validate and fit the rules of interaction of animals in groups. Here, we use a Bayesian methodology to compare a variety of models to the collective motion of glass prawns (Paratya australiensis. We show that these exhibit a stereotypical 'phase transition', whereby an increase in density leads to the onset of collective motion in one direction. We fit models to this data, which range from: a mean-field model where all prawns interact globally; to a spatial Markovian model where prawns are self-propelled particles influenced only by the current positions and directions of their neighbours; up to non-Markovian models where prawns have 'memory' of previous interactions, integrating their experiences over time when deciding to change behaviour. We show that the mean-field model fits the large scale behaviour of the system, but does not capture the observed locality of interactions. Traditional self-propelled particle models fail to capture the fine scale dynamics of the system. The most sophisticated model, the non-Markovian model, provides a good match to the data at both the fine scale and in terms of reproducing global dynamics, while maintaining a biologically plausible perceptual range. We conclude that prawns' movements are influenced by not just the current direction of nearby conspecifics, but also those encountered in the recent past. Given the simplicity of prawns as a study system our research suggests that self-propelled particle models of collective motion should, if they are to be realistic at multiple biological scales, include memory of previous interactions and other non-Markovian effects.

  5. Multi-scale inference of interaction rules in animal groups using Bayesian model selection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard P Mann

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Inference of interaction rules of animals moving in groups usually relies on an analysis of large scale system behaviour. Models are tuned through repeated simulation until they match the observed behaviour. More recent work has used the fine scale motions of animals to validate and fit the rules of interaction of animals in groups. Here, we use a Bayesian methodology to compare a variety of models to the collective motion of glass prawns (Paratya australiensis. We show that these exhibit a stereotypical 'phase transition', whereby an increase in density leads to the onset of collective motion in one direction. We fit models to this data, which range from: a mean-field model where all prawns interact globally; to a spatial Markovian model where prawns are self-propelled particles influenced only by the current positions and directions of their neighbours; up to non-Markovian models where prawns have 'memory' of previous interactions, integrating their experiences over time when deciding to change behaviour. We show that the mean-field model fits the large scale behaviour of the system, but does not capture fine scale rules of interaction, which are primarily mediated by physical contact. Conversely, the Markovian self-propelled particle model captures the fine scale rules of interaction but fails to reproduce global dynamics. The most sophisticated model, the non-Markovian model, provides a good match to the data at both the fine scale and in terms of reproducing global dynamics. We conclude that prawns' movements are influenced by not just the current direction of nearby conspecifics, but also those encountered in the recent past. Given the simplicity of prawns as a study system our research suggests that self-propelled particle models of collective motion should, if they are to be realistic at multiple biological scales, include memory of previous interactions and other non-Markovian effects.

  6. A Tutorial Introduction to Bayesian Models of Cognitive Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    typewriter with an infinite amount of paper. There is a space of documents that it is capable of producing, which includes things like The Tempest and does...not include, say, a Vermeer painting or a poem written in Russian. This typewriter represents a means of generating the hypothesis space for a Bayesian...learner: each possible document that can be typed on it is a hypothesis, the infinite set of documents producible by the typewriter is the latent

  7. Bayesian data assimilation for stochastic multiscale models of transport in porous media.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marzouk, Youssef M. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA); van Bloemen Waanders, Bart Gustaaf (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque NM); Parno, Matthew (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA); Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia; Salazar, Luke (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque NM); McKenna, Sean Andrew (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque NM); Klise, Katherine A. (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque NM)

    2011-10-01

    We investigate Bayesian techniques that can be used to reconstruct field variables from partial observations. In particular, we target fields that exhibit spatial structures with a large spectrum of lengthscales. Contemporary methods typically describe the field on a grid and estimate structures which can be resolved by it. In contrast, we address the reconstruction of grid-resolved structures as well as estimation of statistical summaries of subgrid structures, which are smaller than the grid resolution. We perform this in two different ways (a) via a physical (phenomenological), parameterized subgrid model that summarizes the impact of the unresolved scales at the coarse level and (b) via multiscale finite elements, where specially designed prolongation and restriction operators establish the interscale link between the same problem defined on a coarse and fine mesh. The estimation problem is posed as a Bayesian inverse problem. Dimensionality reduction is performed by projecting the field to be inferred on a suitable orthogonal basis set, viz. the Karhunen-Loeve expansion of a multiGaussian. We first demonstrate our techniques on the reconstruction of a binary medium consisting of a matrix with embedded inclusions, which are too small to be grid-resolved. The reconstruction is performed using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We find that the posterior distributions of the inferred parameters are approximately Gaussian. We exploit this finding to reconstruct a permeability field with long, but narrow embedded fractures (which are too fine to be grid-resolved) using scalable ensemble Kalman filters; this also allows us to address larger grids. Ensemble Kalman filtering is then used to estimate the values of hydraulic conductivity and specific yield in a model of the High Plains Aquifer in Kansas. Strong conditioning of the spatial structure of the parameters and the non-linear aspects of the water table aquifer create difficulty for the ensemble Kalman

  8. Continuous Spatial Process Models for Spatial Extreme Values

    KAUST Repository

    Sang, Huiyan; Gelfand, Alan E.

    2010-01-01

    process model for extreme values that provides mean square continuous realizations, where the behavior of the surface is driven by the spatial dependence which is unexplained under the latent spatio-temporal specification for the GEV parameters

  9. Spatially adaptive mixture modeling for analysis of FMRI time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Thomas; Risser, Laurent; Ciuciu, Philippe

    2010-04-01

    Within-subject analysis in fMRI essentially addresses two problems, the detection of brain regions eliciting evoked activity and the estimation of the underlying dynamics. In Makni et aL, 2005 and Makni et aL, 2008, a detection-estimation framework has been proposed to tackle these problems jointly, since they are connected to one another. In the Bayesian formalism, detection is achieved by modeling activating and nonactivating voxels through independent mixture models (IMM) within each region while hemodynamic response estimation is performed at a regional scale in a nonparametric way. Instead of IMMs, in this paper we take advantage of spatial mixture models (SMM) for their nonlinear spatial regularizing properties. The proposed method is unsupervised and spatially adaptive in the sense that the amount of spatial correlation is automatically tuned from the data and this setting automatically varies across brain regions. In addition, the level of regularization is specific to each experimental condition since both the signal-to-noise ratio and the activation pattern may vary across stimulus types in a given brain region. These aspects require the precise estimation of multiple partition functions of underlying Ising fields. This is addressed efficiently using first path sampling for a small subset of fields and then using a recently developed fast extrapolation technique for the large remaining set. Simulation results emphasize that detection relying on supervised SMM outperforms its IMM counterpart and that unsupervised spatial mixture models achieve similar results without any hand-tuning of the correlation parameter. On real datasets, the gain is illustrated in a localizer fMRI experiment: brain activations appear more spatially resolved using SMM in comparison with classical general linear model (GLM)-based approaches, while estimating a specific parcel-based HRF shape. Our approach therefore validates the treatment of unsmoothed fMRI data without fixed GLM

  10. Predictive models for pressure ulcers from intensive care unit electronic health records using Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaewprag, Pacharmon; Newton, Cheryl; Vermillion, Brenda; Hyun, Sookyung; Huang, Kun; Machiraju, Raghu

    2017-07-05

    We develop predictive models enabling clinicians to better understand and explore patient clinical data along with risk factors for pressure ulcers in intensive care unit patients from electronic health record data. Identifying accurate risk factors of pressure ulcers is essential to determining appropriate prevention strategies; in this work we examine medication, diagnosis, and traditional Braden pressure ulcer assessment scale measurements as patient features. In order to predict pressure ulcer incidence and better understand the structure of related risk factors, we construct Bayesian networks from patient features. Bayesian network nodes (features) and edges (conditional dependencies) are simplified with statistical network techniques. Upon reviewing a network visualization of our model, our clinician collaborators were able to identify strong relationships between risk factors widely recognized as associated with pressure ulcers. We present a three-stage framework for predictive analysis of patient clinical data: 1) Developing electronic health record feature extraction functions with assistance of clinicians, 2) simplifying features, and 3) building Bayesian network predictive models. We evaluate all combinations of Bayesian network models from different search algorithms, scoring functions, prior structure initializations, and sets of features. From the EHRs of 7,717 ICU patients, we construct Bayesian network predictive models from 86 medication, diagnosis, and Braden scale features. Our model not only identifies known and suspected high PU risk factors, but also substantially increases sensitivity of the prediction - nearly three times higher comparing to logistical regression models - without sacrificing the overall accuracy. We visualize a representative model with which our clinician collaborators identify strong relationships between risk factors widely recognized as associated with pressure ulcers. Given the strong adverse effect of pressure ulcers

  11. Evaluating Spatial Variability in Sediment and Phosphorus Concentration-Discharge Relationships Using Bayesian Inference and Self-Organizing Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underwood, Kristen L.; Rizzo, Donna M.; Schroth, Andrew W.; Dewoolkar, Mandar M.

    2017-12-01

    Given the variable biogeochemical, physical, and hydrological processes driving fluvial sediment and nutrient export, the water science and management communities need data-driven methods to identify regions prone to production and transport under variable hydrometeorological conditions. We use Bayesian analysis to segment concentration-discharge linear regression models for total suspended solids (TSS) and particulate and dissolved phosphorus (PP, DP) using 22 years of monitoring data from 18 Lake Champlain watersheds. Bayesian inference was leveraged to estimate segmented regression model parameters and identify threshold position. The identified threshold positions demonstrated a considerable range below and above the median discharge—which has been used previously as the default breakpoint in segmented regression models to discern differences between pre and post-threshold export regimes. We then applied a Self-Organizing Map (SOM), which partitioned the watersheds into clusters of TSS, PP, and DP export regimes using watershed characteristics, as well as Bayesian regression intercepts and slopes. A SOM defined two clusters of high-flux basins, one where PP flux was predominantly episodic and hydrologically driven; and another in which the sediment and nutrient sourcing and mobilization were more bimodal, resulting from both hydrologic processes at post-threshold discharges and reactive processes (e.g., nutrient cycling or lateral/vertical exchanges of fine sediment) at prethreshold discharges. A separate DP SOM defined two high-flux clusters exhibiting a bimodal concentration-discharge response, but driven by differing land use. Our novel framework shows promise as a tool with broad management application that provides insights into landscape drivers of riverine solute and sediment export.

  12. Improving Estimations of Spatial Distribution of Soil Respiration Using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy Algorithm and Soil Temperature as Auxiliary Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junguo Hu

    Full Text Available Soil respiration inherently shows strong spatial variability. It is difficult to obtain an accurate characterization of soil respiration with an insufficient number of monitoring points. However, it is expensive and cumbersome to deploy many sensors. To solve this problem, we proposed employing the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME algorithm, using soil temperature as auxiliary information, to study the spatial distribution of soil respiration. The BME algorithm used the soft data (auxiliary information effectively to improve the estimation accuracy of the spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration. Based on the functional relationship between soil temperature and soil respiration, the BME algorithm satisfactorily integrated soil temperature data into said spatial distribution. As a means of comparison, we also applied the Ordinary Kriging (OK and Co-Kriging (Co-OK methods. The results indicated that the root mean squared errors (RMSEs and absolute values of bias for both Day 1 and Day 2 were the lowest for the BME method, thus demonstrating its higher estimation accuracy. Further, we compared the performance of the BME algorithm coupled with auxiliary information, namely soil temperature data, and the OK method without auxiliary information in the same study area for 9, 21, and 37 sampled points. The results showed that the RMSEs for the BME algorithm (0.972 and 1.193 were less than those for the OK method (1.146 and 1.539 when the number of sampled points was 9 and 37, respectively. This indicates that the former method using auxiliary information could reduce the required number of sampling points for studying spatial distribution of soil respiration. Thus, the BME algorithm, coupled with soil temperature data, can not only improve the accuracy of soil respiration spatial interpolation but can also reduce the number of sampling points.

  13. Improving Estimations of Spatial Distribution of Soil Respiration Using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy Algorithm and Soil Temperature as Auxiliary Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Junguo; Zhou, Jian; Zhou, Guomo; Luo, Yiqi; Xu, Xiaojun; Li, Pingheng; Liang, Junyi

    2016-01-01

    Soil respiration inherently shows strong spatial variability. It is difficult to obtain an accurate characterization of soil respiration with an insufficient number of monitoring points. However, it is expensive and cumbersome to deploy many sensors. To solve this problem, we proposed employing the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) algorithm, using soil temperature as auxiliary information, to study the spatial distribution of soil respiration. The BME algorithm used the soft data (auxiliary information) effectively to improve the estimation accuracy of the spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration. Based on the functional relationship between soil temperature and soil respiration, the BME algorithm satisfactorily integrated soil temperature data into said spatial distribution. As a means of comparison, we also applied the Ordinary Kriging (OK) and Co-Kriging (Co-OK) methods. The results indicated that the root mean squared errors (RMSEs) and absolute values of bias for both Day 1 and Day 2 were the lowest for the BME method, thus demonstrating its higher estimation accuracy. Further, we compared the performance of the BME algorithm coupled with auxiliary information, namely soil temperature data, and the OK method without auxiliary information in the same study area for 9, 21, and 37 sampled points. The results showed that the RMSEs for the BME algorithm (0.972 and 1.193) were less than those for the OK method (1.146 and 1.539) when the number of sampled points was 9 and 37, respectively. This indicates that the former method using auxiliary information could reduce the required number of sampling points for studying spatial distribution of soil respiration. Thus, the BME algorithm, coupled with soil temperature data, can not only improve the accuracy of soil respiration spatial interpolation but can also reduce the number of sampling points.

  14. Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salarzadeh Jenatabadi, Hashem; Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

    2017-01-01

    Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.

  15. Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hashem Salarzadeh Jenatabadi

    Full Text Available Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.

  16. Probabilistic inference: Task dependency and individual differences of probability weighting revealed by hierarchical Bayesian modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moritz eBoos

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive determinants of probabilistic inference were examined using hierarchical Bayesian modelling techniques. A classic urn-ball paradigm served as experimental strategy, involving a factorial two (prior probabilities by two (likelihoods design. Five computational models of cognitive processes were compared with the observed behaviour. Parameter-free Bayesian posterior probabilities and parameter-free base rate neglect provided inadequate models of probabilistic inference. The introduction of distorted subjective probabilities yielded more robust and generalizable results. A general class of (inverted S-shaped probability weighting functions had been proposed; however, the possibility of large differences in probability distortions not only across experimental conditions, but also across individuals, seems critical for the model’s success. It also seems advantageous to consider individual differences in parameters of probability weighting as being sampled from weakly informative prior distributions of individual parameter values. Thus, the results from hierarchical Bayesian modelling converge with previous results in revealing that probability weighting parameters show considerable task dependency and individual differences. Methodologically, this work exemplifies the usefulness of hierarchical Bayesian modelling techniques for cognitive psychology. Theoretically, human probabilistic inference might be best described as the application of individualized strategic policies for Bayesian belief revision.

  17. A comprehensive probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, C.; Qin, T. X.; Jiang, B.; Huang, C.

    2018-02-01

    Oil pipelines network is one of the most important facilities of energy transportation. But oil pipelines network accident may result in serious disasters. Some analysis models for these accidents have been established mainly based on three methods, including event-tree, accident simulation and Bayesian network. Among these methods, Bayesian network is suitable for probabilistic analysis. But not all the important influencing factors are considered and the deployment rule of the factors has not been established. This paper proposed a probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network. Most of the important influencing factors, including the key environment condition and emergency response are considered in this model. Moreover, the paper also introduces a deployment rule for these factors. The model can be used in probabilistic analysis and sensitive analysis of oil pipelines network accident.

  18. Bayesian Comparison of Alternative Graded Response Models for Performance Assessment Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiaowen; Stone, Clement A.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the relative effectiveness of Bayesian model comparison methods in selecting an appropriate graded response (GR) model for performance assessment applications. Three popular methods were considered: deviance information criterion (DIC), conditional predictive ordinate (CPO), and posterior predictive model checking (PPMC). Using…

  19. Linking Bayesian and agent-based models to simulate complex social-ecological systems in semi-arid regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aloah J Pope

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Interdependencies of ecologic, hydrologic, and social systems challenge traditional approaches to natural resource management in semi-arid regions. As a complex social-ecological system, water demands in the Sonoran Desert from agricultural and urban users often conflicts with water needs for its ecologically-significant riparian corridors. To explore this system, we developed an agent-based model to simulate complex feedbacks between human decisions and environmental conditions in the Rio Sonora Watershed. Cognitive mapping in conjunction with stakeholder participation produced a Bayesian model of conditional probabilities of local human decision-making processes resulting to changes in water demand. Probabilities created in the Bayesian model were incorporated into the agent-based model, so that each agent had a unique probability to make a positive decision based on its perceived environment at each point in time and space. By using a Bayesian approach, uncertainty in the human decision-making process could be incorporated. The spatially-explicit agent-based model simulated changes in depth-to-groundwater by well pumping based on an agent’s water demand. Changes in depth-to-groundwater feedback to influence agent behavior, as well as determine unique vegetation classes within the riparian corridor. Each vegetation class then provides varying stakeholder-defined quality values of ecosystem services. Using this modeling approach allowed us to examine effects on both the ecological and social system of semi-arid riparian corridors under various scenarios. The insight provided by the model contributes to understanding how specific interventions may alter the complex social-ecological system in the future.

  20. A surrogate-based sensitivity quantification and Bayesian inversion of a regional groundwater flow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mingjie; Izady, Azizallah; Abdalla, Osman A.; Amerjeed, Mansoor

    2018-02-01

    Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides an explicit framework for stochastic calibration of hydrogeologic models accounting for uncertainties; however, the MCMC sampling entails a large number of model calls, and could easily become computationally unwieldy if the high-fidelity hydrogeologic model simulation is time consuming. This study proposes a surrogate-based Bayesian framework to address this notorious issue, and illustrates the methodology by inverse modeling a regional MODFLOW model. The high-fidelity groundwater model is approximated by a fast statistical model using Bagging Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (BMARS) algorithm, and hence the MCMC sampling can be efficiently performed. In this study, the MODFLOW model is developed to simulate the groundwater flow in an arid region of Oman consisting of mountain-coast aquifers, and used to run representative simulations to generate training dataset for BMARS model construction. A BMARS-based Sobol' method is also employed to efficiently calculate input parameter sensitivities, which are used to evaluate and rank their importance for the groundwater flow model system. According to sensitivity analysis, insensitive parameters are screened out of Bayesian inversion of the MODFLOW model, further saving computing efforts. The posterior probability distribution of input parameters is efficiently inferred from the prescribed prior distribution using observed head data, demonstrating that the presented BMARS-based Bayesian framework is an efficient tool to reduce parameter uncertainties of a groundwater system.

  1. Spatial capture-recapture models for search-encounter data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew; Kery, Marc; Guelat, Jerome

    2011-01-01

    1. Spatial capture–recapture models make use of auxiliary data on capture location to provide density estimates for animal populations. Previously, models have been developed primarily for fixed trap arrays which define the observable locations of individuals by a set of discrete points. 2. Here, we develop a class of models for 'search-encounter' data, i.e. for detections of recognizable individuals in continuous space, not restricted to trap locations. In our hierarchical model, detection probability is related to the average distance between individual location and the survey path. The locations are allowed to change over time owing to movements of individuals, and individual locations are related formally by a model describing individual activity or home range centre which is itself regarded as a latent variable in the model. We provide a Bayesian analysis of the model in WinBUGS, and develop a custom MCMC algorithm in the R language. 3. The model is applied to simulated data and to territory mapping data for the Willow Tit from the Swiss Breeding Bird Survey MHB. While the observed density was 15 territories per nominal 1 km2 plot of unknown effective sample area, the model produced a density estimate of 21∙12 territories per square km (95% posterior interval: 17–26). 4. Spatial capture–recapture models are relevant to virtually all animal population studies that seek to estimate population size or density, yet existing models have been proposed mainly for conventional sampling using arrays of traps. Our model for search-encounter data, where the spatial pattern of searching can be arbitrary and may change over occasions, greatly expands the scope and utility of spatial capture–recapture models.

  2. Bayesian image reconstruction in SPECT using higher order mechanical models as priors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, S.J.; Gindi, G.; Rangarajan, A.

    1995-01-01

    While the ML-EM (maximum-likelihood-expectation maximization) algorithm for reconstruction for emission tomography is unstable due to the ill-posed nature of the problem, Bayesian reconstruction methods overcome this instability by introducing prior information, often in the form of a spatial smoothness regularizer. More elaborate forms of smoothness constraints may be used to extend the role of the prior beyond that of a stabilizer in order to capture actual spatial information about the object. Previously proposed forms of such prior distributions were based on the assumption of a piecewise constant source distribution. Here, the authors propose an extension to a piecewise linear model--the weak plate--which is more expressive than the piecewise constant model. The weak plate prior not only preserves edges but also allows for piecewise ramplike regions in the reconstruction. Indeed, for the application in SPECT, such ramplike regions are observed in ground-truth source distributions in the form of primate autoradiographs of rCBF radionuclides. To incorporate the weak plate prior in a MAP approach, the authors model the prior as a Gibbs distribution and use a GEM formulation for the optimization. They compare quantitative performance of the ML-EM algorithm, a GEM algorithm with a prior favoring piecewise constant regions, and a GEM algorithm with the weak plate prior. Pointwise and regional bias and variance of ensemble image reconstructions are used as indications of image quality. The results show that the weak plate and membrane priors exhibit improved bias and variance relative to ML-EM techniques

  3. Probabilistic safety assessment model in consideration of human factors based on object-oriented bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Zhongbao; Zhou Jinglun; Sun Quan

    2007-01-01

    Effect of Human factors on system safety is increasingly serious, which is often ignored in traditional probabilistic safety assessment methods however. A new probabilistic safety assessment model based on object-oriented Bayesian networks is proposed in this paper. Human factors are integrated into the existed event sequence diagrams. Then the classes of the object-oriented Bayesian networks are constructed which are converted to latent Bayesian networks for inference. Finally, the inference results are integrated into event sequence diagrams for probabilistic safety assessment. The new method is applied to the accident of loss of coolant in a nuclear power plant. the results show that the model is not only applicable to real-time situation assessment, but also applicable to situation assessment based certain amount of information. The modeling complexity is kept down and the new method is appropriate to large complex systems due to the thoughts of object-oriented. (authors)

  4. Bayesian parameter estimation for stochastic models of biological cell migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieterich, Peter; Preuss, Roland

    2013-08-01

    Cell migration plays an essential role under many physiological and patho-physiological conditions. It is of major importance during embryonic development and wound healing. In contrast, it also generates negative effects during inflammation processes, the transmigration of tumors or the formation of metastases. Thus, a reliable quantification and characterization of cell paths could give insight into the dynamics of these processes. Typically stochastic models are applied where parameters are extracted by fitting models to the so-called mean square displacement of the observed cell group. We show that this approach has several disadvantages and problems. Therefore, we propose a simple procedure directly relying on the positions of the cell's trajectory and the covariance matrix of the positions. It is shown that the covariance is identical with the spatial aging correlation function for the supposed linear Gaussian models of Brownian motion with drift and fractional Brownian motion. The technique is applied and illustrated with simulated data showing a reliable parameter estimation from single cell paths.

  5. A model-based Bayesian framework for ECG beat segmentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sayadi, O; Shamsollahi, M B

    2009-01-01

    The study of electrocardiogram (ECG) waveform amplitudes, timings and patterns has been the subject of intense research, for it provides a deep insight into the diagnostic features of the heart's functionality. In some recent works, a Bayesian filtering paradigm has been proposed for denoising and compression of ECG signals. In this paper, it is shown that this framework may be effectively used for ECG beat segmentation and extraction of fiducial points. Analytic expressions for the determination of points and intervals are derived and evaluated on various real ECG signals. Simulation results show that the method can contribute to and enhance the clinical ECG beat segmentation performance

  6. Banking Crisis Early Warning Model based on a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taha Zaghdoudi

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The succession of banking crises in which most have resulted in huge economic and financial losses, prompted several authors to study their determinants. These authors constructed early warning models to prevent their occurring. It is in this same vein as our study takes its inspiration. In particular, we have developed a warning model of banking crises based on a Bayesian approach. The results of this approach have allowed us to identify the involvement of the decline in bank profitability, deterioration of the competitiveness of the traditional intermediation, banking concentration and higher real interest rates in triggering bank crisis.

  7. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk in Georgia, USA: 2000-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Ping; Mu, Lan; Madden, Marguerite; Vena, John E.

    2014-10-01

    Lung cancer is the second most commonly diagnosed cancer in both men and women in Georgia, USA. However, the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer risk in Georgia have not been fully studied. Hierarchical Bayesian models are used here to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk by race and gender in Georgia for the period of 2000-2007. With the census tract level as the spatial scale and the 2-year period aggregation as the temporal scale, we compare a total of seven Bayesian spatio-temporal models including two under a separate modeling framework and five under a joint modeling framework. One joint model outperforms others based on the deviance information criterion. Results show that the northwest region of Georgia has consistently high lung cancer incidence risk for all population groups during the study period. In addition, there are inverse relationships between the socioeconomic status and the lung cancer incidence risk among all Georgian population groups, and the relationships in males are stronger than those in females. By mapping more reliable variations in lung cancer incidence risk at a relatively fine spatio-temporal scale for different Georgian population groups, our study aims to better support healthcare performance assessment, etiological hypothesis generation, and health policy making.

  8. Multimethod, multistate Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for use in regional monitoring of wolves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez, José; García, Emilio J; Llaneza, Luis; Palacios, Vicente; González, Luis Mariano; García-Domínguez, Francisco; Múñoz-Igualada, Jaime; López-Bao, José Vicente

    2016-08-01

    In many cases, the first step in large-carnivore management is to obtain objective, reliable, and cost-effective estimates of population parameters through procedures that are reproducible over time. However, monitoring predators over large areas is difficult, and the data have a high level of uncertainty. We devised a practical multimethod and multistate modeling approach based on Bayesian hierarchical-site-occupancy models that combined multiple survey methods to estimate different population states for use in monitoring large predators at a regional scale. We used wolves (Canis lupus) as our model species and generated reliable estimates of the number of sites with wolf reproduction (presence of pups). We used 2 wolf data sets from Spain (Western Galicia in 2013 and Asturias in 2004) to test the approach. Based on howling surveys, the naïve estimation (i.e., estimate based only on observations) of the number of sites with reproduction was 9 and 25 sites in Western Galicia and Asturias, respectively. Our model showed 33.4 (SD 9.6) and 34.4 (3.9) sites with wolf reproduction, respectively. The number of occupied sites with wolf reproduction was 0.67 (SD 0.19) and 0.76 (0.11), respectively. This approach can be used to design more cost-effective monitoring programs (i.e., to define the sampling effort needed per site). Our approach should inspire well-coordinated surveys across multiple administrative borders and populations and lead to improved decision making for management of large carnivores on a landscape level. The use of this Bayesian framework provides a simple way to visualize the degree of uncertainty around population-parameter estimates and thus provides managers and stakeholders an intuitive approach to interpreting monitoring results. Our approach can be widely applied to large spatial scales in wildlife monitoring where detection probabilities differ between population states and where several methods are being used to estimate different population

  9. Bayesian conditional-independence modeling of the AIDS epidemic in England and Wales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilks, Walter R.; De Angelis, Daniela; Day, Nicholas E.

    We describe the use of conditional-independence modeling, Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo, to model and project the HIV-AIDS epidemic in homosexual/bisexual males in England and Wales. Complexity in this analysis arises through selectively missing data, indirectly observed underlying processes, and measurement error. Our emphasis is on presentation and discussion of the concepts, not on the technicalities of this analysis, which can be found elsewhere [D. De Angelis, W.R. Gilks, N.E. Day, Bayesian projection of the the acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemic (with discussion), Applied Statistics, in press].

  10. Basic and Advanced Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling With Applications in the Medical and Behavioral Sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Sik-Yum

    2012-01-01

    This book provides clear instructions to researchers on how to apply Structural Equation Models (SEMs) for analyzing the inter relationships between observed and latent variables. Basic and Advanced Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling introduces basic and advanced SEMs for analyzing various kinds of complex data, such as ordered and unordered categorical data, multilevel data, mixture data, longitudinal data, highly non-normal data, as well as some of their combinations. In addition, Bayesian semiparametric SEMs to capture the true distribution of explanatory latent variables are introduce

  11. Bayesian interpolation in a dynamic sinusoidal model with application to packet-loss concealment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Kjær; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Cemgil, Ali Taylan

    2010-01-01

    a Bayesian inference scheme for the missing observations, hidden states and model parameters of the dynamic model. The inference scheme is based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo method known as Gibbs sampler. We illustrate the performance of the inference scheme to the application of packet-loss concealment...

  12. Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    B.G. Marcot; J.D. Steventon; G.D. Sutherland; R.K. McCann

    2006-01-01

    We provide practical guidelines for developing, testing, and revising Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). Primary steps in this process include creating influence diagrams of the hypothesized "causal web" of key factors affecting a species or ecological outcome of interest; developing a first, alpha-level BBN model from the influence diagram; revising the model...

  13. Bayesian near-boundary analysis in basic macroeconomic time series models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.D. de Pooter (Michiel); F. Ravazzolo (Francesco); R. Segers (René); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractSeveral lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic

  14. Predicting Graduation Rates at 4-Year Broad Access Institutions Using a Bayesian Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crisp, Gloria; Doran, Erin; Salis Reyes, Nicole A.

    2018-01-01

    This study models graduation rates at 4-year broad access institutions (BAIs). We examine the student body, structural-demographic, and financial characteristics that best predict 6-year graduation rates across two time periods (2008-2009 and 2014-2015). A Bayesian model averaging approach is utilized to account for uncertainty in variable…

  15. Featuring Multiple Local Optima to Assist the User in the Interpretation of Induced Bayesian Network Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Jens; Pena, Jose; Kocka, Tomas

    2004-01-01

    We propose a method to assist the user in the interpretation of the best Bayesian network model indu- ced from data. The method consists in extracting relevant features from the model (e.g. edges, directed paths and Markov blankets) and, then, assessing the con¯dence in them by studying multiple...

  16. A Bayesian Multi-Level Factor Analytic Model of Consumer Price Sensitivities across Categories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvvuri, Sri Devi; Gruca, Thomas S.

    2010-01-01

    Identifying price sensitive consumers is an important problem in marketing. We develop a Bayesian multi-level factor analytic model of the covariation among household-level price sensitivities across product categories that are substitutes. Based on a multivariate probit model of category incidence, this framework also allows the researcher to…

  17. Bayesian model averaging and weighted average least squares : Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Luca, G.; Magnus, J.R.

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we describe the estimation of linear regression models with uncertainty about the choice of the explanatory variables. We introduce the Stata commands bma and wals, which implement, respectively, the exact Bayesian model-averaging estimator and the weighted-average least-squares

  18. A Bayesian MCMC method for point process models with intractable normalising constants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berthelsen, Kasper Klitgaard; Møller, Jesper

    2004-01-01

    to simulate from the "unknown distribution", perfect simulation algorithms become useful. We illustrate the method in cases whre the likelihood is given by a Markov point process model. Particularly, we consider semi-parametric Bayesian inference in connection to both inhomogeneous Markov point process models...... and pairwise interaction point processes....

  19. An Improved Estimation Using Polya-Gamma Augmentation for Bayesian Structural Equation Models with Dichotomous Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seohyun; Lu, Zhenqiu; Cohen, Allan S.

    2018-01-01

    Bayesian algorithms have been used successfully in the social and behavioral sciences to analyze dichotomous data particularly with complex structural equation models. In this study, we investigate the use of the Polya-Gamma data augmentation method with Gibbs sampling to improve estimation of structural equation models with dichotomous variables.…

  20. Reconstructing Constructivism: Causal Models, Bayesian Learning Mechanisms, and the Theory Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopnik, Alison; Wellman, Henry M.

    2012-01-01

    We propose a new version of the "theory theory" grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework…

  1. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of the space - time diffusion patterns of cholera epidemic in Kumasi, Ghana

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Osei, Frank B.; Osei, F.B.; Duker, Alfred A.; Stein, A.

    2011-01-01

    This study analyses the joint effects of the two transmission routes of cholera on the space-time diffusion dynamics. Statistical models are developed and presented to investigate the transmission network routes of cholera diffusion. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is employed for a joint

  2. Bayesian Hierarchical Scale Mixtures of Log-Normal Models for Inference in Reliability with Stochastic Constraint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hea-Jung Kim

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops Bayesian inference in reliability of a class of scale mixtures of log-normal failure time (SMLNFT models with stochastic (or uncertain constraint in their reliability measures. The class is comprehensive and includes existing failure time (FT models (such as log-normal, log-Cauchy, and log-logistic FT models as well as new models that are robust in terms of heavy-tailed FT observations. Since classical frequency approaches to reliability analysis based on the SMLNFT model with stochastic constraint are intractable, the Bayesian method is pursued utilizing a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC sampling based approach. This paper introduces a two-stage maximum entropy (MaxEnt prior, which elicits a priori uncertain constraint and develops Bayesian hierarchical SMLNFT model by using the prior. The paper also proposes an MCMC method for Bayesian inference in the SMLNFT model reliability and calls attention to properties of the MaxEnt prior that are useful for method development. Finally, two data sets are used to illustrate how the proposed methodology works.

  3. Application of Bayesian model averaging to measurements of the primordial power spectrum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, David; Liddle, Andrew R.

    2010-01-01

    Cosmological parameter uncertainties are often stated assuming a particular model, neglecting the model uncertainty, even when Bayesian model selection is unable to identify a conclusive best model. Bayesian model averaging is a method for assessing parameter uncertainties in situations where there is also uncertainty in the underlying model. We apply model averaging to the estimation of the parameters associated with the primordial power spectra of curvature and tensor perturbations. We use CosmoNest and MultiNest to compute the model evidences and posteriors, using cosmic microwave data from WMAP, ACBAR, BOOMERanG, and CBI, plus large-scale structure data from the SDSS DR7. We find that the model-averaged 95% credible interval for the spectral index using all of the data is 0.940 s s is specified at a pivot scale 0.015 Mpc -1 . For the tensors model averaging can tighten the credible upper limit, depending on prior assumptions.

  4. A Bayesian antedependence model for whole genome prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wenzhao; Tempelman, Robert J

    2012-04-01

    Hierarchical mixed effects models have been demonstrated to be powerful for predicting genomic merit of livestock and plants, on the basis of high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker panels, and their use is being increasingly advocated for genomic predictions in human health. Two particularly popular approaches, labeled BayesA and BayesB, are based on specifying all SNP-associated effects to be independent of each other. BayesB extends BayesA by allowing a large proportion of SNP markers to be associated with null effects. We further extend these two models to specify SNP effects as being spatially correlated due to the chromosomally proximal effects of causal variants. These two models, that we respectively dub as ante-BayesA and ante-BayesB, are based on a first-order nonstationary antedependence specification between SNP effects. In a simulation study involving 20 replicate data sets, each analyzed at six different SNP marker densities with average LD levels ranging from r(2) = 0.15 to 0.31, the antedependence methods had significantly (P 0. 24) with differences exceeding 3%. A cross-validation study was also conducted on the heterogeneous stock mice data resource (http://mus.well.ox.ac.uk/mouse/HS/) using 6-week body weights as the phenotype. The antedependence methods increased cross-validation prediction accuracies by up to 3.6% compared to their classical counterparts (P benchmark data sets and demonstrated that the antedependence methods were more accurate than their classical counterparts for genomic predictions, even for individuals several generations beyond the training data.

  5. Introduction to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2017-01-01

    There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...

  6. Introduction of a methodology for visualization and graphical interpretation of Bayesian classification models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balfer, Jenny; Bajorath, Jürgen

    2014-09-22

    Supervised machine learning models are widely used in chemoinformatics, especially for the prediction of new active compounds or targets of known actives. Bayesian classification methods are among the most popular machine learning approaches for the prediction of activity from chemical structure. Much work has focused on predicting structure-activity relationships (SARs) on the basis of experimental training data. By contrast, only a few efforts have thus far been made to rationalize the performance of Bayesian or other supervised machine learning models and better understand why they might succeed or fail. In this study, we introduce an intuitive approach for the visualization and graphical interpretation of naïve Bayesian classification models. Parameters derived during supervised learning are visualized and interactively analyzed to gain insights into model performance and identify features that determine predictions. The methodology is introduced in detail and applied to assess Bayesian modeling efforts and predictions on compound data sets of varying structural complexity. Different classification models and features determining their performance are characterized in detail. A prototypic implementation of the approach is provided.

  7. BUMPER: the Bayesian User-friendly Model for Palaeo-Environmental Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holden, Phil; Birks, John; Brooks, Steve; Bush, Mark; Hwang, Grace; Matthews-Bird, Frazer; Valencia, Bryan; van Woesik, Robert

    2017-04-01

    We describe the Bayesian User-friendly Model for Palaeo-Environmental Reconstruction (BUMPER), a Bayesian transfer function for inferring past climate and other environmental variables from microfossil assemblages. The principal motivation for a Bayesian approach is that the palaeoenvironment is treated probabilistically, and can be updated as additional data become available. Bayesian approaches therefore provide a reconstruction-specific quantification of the uncertainty in the data and in the model parameters. BUMPER is fully self-calibrating, straightforward to apply, and computationally fast, requiring 2 seconds to build a 100-taxon model from a 100-site training-set on a standard personal computer. We apply the model's probabilistic framework to generate thousands of artificial training-sets under ideal assumptions. We then use these to demonstrate both the general applicability of the model and the sensitivity of reconstructions to the characteristics of the training-set, considering assemblage richness, taxon tolerances, and the number of training sites. We demonstrate general applicability to real data, considering three different organism types (chironomids, diatoms, pollen) and different reconstructed variables. In all of these applications an identically configured model is used, the only change being the input files that provide the training-set environment and taxon-count data.

  8. Bayesian analysis of data and model error in rainfall-runoff hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavetski, D.; Franks, S. W.; Kuczera, G.

    2004-12-01

    A major unresolved issue in the identification and use of conceptual hydrologic models is realistic description of uncertainty in the data and model structure. In particular, hydrologic parameters often cannot be measured directly and must be inferred (calibrated) from observed forcing/response data (typically, rainfall and runoff). However, rainfall varies significantly in space and time, yet is often estimated from sparse gauge networks. Recent work showed that current calibration methods (e.g., standard least squares, multi-objective calibration, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) ignore forcing uncertainty and assume that the rainfall is known exactly. Consequently, they can yield strongly biased and misleading parameter estimates. This deficiency confounds attempts to reliably test model hypotheses, to generalize results across catchments (the regionalization problem) and to quantify predictive uncertainty when the hydrologic model is extrapolated. This paper continues the development of a Bayesian total error analysis (BATEA) methodology for the calibration and identification of hydrologic models, which explicitly incorporates the uncertainty in both the forcing and response data, and allows systematic model comparison based on residual model errors and formal Bayesian hypothesis testing (e.g., using Bayes factors). BATEA is based on explicit stochastic models for both forcing and response uncertainty, whereas current techniques focus solely on response errors. Hence, unlike existing methods, the BATEA parameter equations directly reflect the modeler's confidence in all the data. We compare several approaches to approximating the parameter distributions: a) full Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and b) simplified approaches based on linear approximations. Studies using synthetic and real data from the US and Australia show that BATEA systematically reduces the parameter bias, leads to more meaningful model fits and allows model comparison taking

  9. Bayesian model selection of template forward models for EEG source reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strobbe, Gregor; van Mierlo, Pieter; De Vos, Maarten; Mijović, Bogdan; Hallez, Hans; Van Huffel, Sabine; López, José David; Vandenberghe, Stefaan

    2014-06-01

    Several EEG source reconstruction techniques have been proposed to identify the generating neuronal sources of electrical activity measured on the scalp. The solution of these techniques depends directly on the accuracy of the forward model that is inverted. Recently, a parametric empirical Bayesian (PEB) framework for distributed source reconstruction in EEG/MEG was introduced and implemented in the Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) software. The framework allows us to compare different forward modeling approaches, using real data, instead of using more traditional simulated data from an assumed true forward model. In the absence of a subject specific MR image, a 3-layered boundary element method (BEM) template head model is currently used including a scalp, skull and brain compartment. In this study, we introduced volumetric template head models based on the finite difference method (FDM). We constructed a FDM head model equivalent to the BEM model and an extended FDM model including CSF. These models were compared within the context of three different types of source priors related to the type of inversion used in the PEB framework: independent and identically distributed (IID) sources, equivalent to classical minimum norm approaches, coherence (COH) priors similar to methods such as LORETA, and multiple sparse priors (MSP). The resulting models were compared based on ERP data of 20 subjects using Bayesian model selection for group studies. The reconstructed activity was also compared with the findings of previous studies using functional magnetic resonance imaging. We found very strong evidence in favor of the extended FDM head model with CSF and assuming MSP. These results suggest that the use of realistic volumetric forward models can improve PEB EEG source reconstruction. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Continuous Spatial Process Models for Spatial Extreme Values

    KAUST Repository

    Sang, Huiyan

    2010-01-28

    We propose a hierarchical modeling approach for explaining a collection of point-referenced extreme values. In particular, annual maxima over space and time are assumed to follow generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions, with parameters μ, σ, and ξ specified in the latent stage to reflect underlying spatio-temporal structure. The novelty here is that we relax the conditionally independence assumption in the first stage of the hierarchial model, an assumption which has been adopted in previous work. This assumption implies that realizations of the the surface of spatial maxima will be everywhere discontinuous. For many phenomena including, e. g., temperature and precipitation, this behavior is inappropriate. Instead, we offer a spatial process model for extreme values that provides mean square continuous realizations, where the behavior of the surface is driven by the spatial dependence which is unexplained under the latent spatio-temporal specification for the GEV parameters. In this sense, the first stage smoothing is viewed as fine scale or short range smoothing while the larger scale smoothing will be captured in the second stage of the modeling. In addition, as would be desired, we are able to implement spatial interpolation for extreme values based on this model. A simulation study and a study on actual annual maximum rainfall for a region in South Africa are used to illustrate the performance of the model. © 2009 International Biometric Society.

  11. Bayesian methods for data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Carlin, Bradley P.

    2009-01-01

    Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors

  12. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2010-01-01

    Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

  13. Hybrid nested sampling algorithm for Bayesian model selection applied to inverse subsurface flow problems

    KAUST Repository

    Elsheikh, Ahmed H.

    2014-02-01

    A Hybrid Nested Sampling (HNS) algorithm is proposed for efficient Bayesian model calibration and prior model selection. The proposed algorithm combines, Nested Sampling (NS) algorithm, Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling and gradient estimation using Stochastic Ensemble Method (SEM). NS is an efficient sampling algorithm that can be used for Bayesian calibration and estimating the Bayesian evidence for prior model selection. Nested sampling has the advantage of computational feasibility. Within the nested sampling algorithm, a constrained sampling step is performed. For this step, we utilize HMC to reduce the correlation between successive sampled states. HMC relies on the gradient of the logarithm of the posterior distribution, which we estimate using a stochastic ensemble method based on an ensemble of directional derivatives. SEM only requires forward model runs and the simulator is then used as a black box and no adjoint code is needed. The developed HNS algorithm is successfully applied for Bayesian calibration and prior model selection of several nonlinear subsurface flow problems. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

  14. Risk prediction model for knee pain in the Nottingham community: a Bayesian modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, G S; Bhattacharya, A; McWilliams, D F; Ingham, S L; Doherty, M; Zhang, W

    2017-03-20

    Twenty-five percent of the British population over the age of 50 years experiences knee pain. Knee pain can limit physical ability and cause distress and bears significant socioeconomic costs. The objectives of this study were to develop and validate the first risk prediction model for incident knee pain in the Nottingham community and validate this internally within the Nottingham cohort and externally within the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) cohort. A total of 1822 participants from the Nottingham community who were at risk for knee pain were followed for 12 years. Of this cohort, two-thirds (n = 1203) were used to develop the risk prediction model, and one-third (n = 619) were used to validate the model. Incident knee pain was defined as pain on most days for at least 1 month in the past 12 months. Predictors were age, sex, body mass index, pain elsewhere, prior knee injury and knee alignment. A Bayesian logistic regression model was used to determine the probability of an OR >1. The Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 statistic (HLS) was used for calibration, and ROC curve analysis was used for discrimination. The OAI cohort from the United States was also used to examine the performance of the model. A risk prediction model for knee pain incidence was developed using a Bayesian approach. The model had good calibration, with an HLS of 7.17 (p = 0.52) and moderate discriminative ability (ROC 0.70) in the community. Individual scenarios are given using the model. However, the model had poor calibration (HLS 5866.28, p prediction model for knee pain, regardless of underlying structural changes of knee osteoarthritis, in the community using a Bayesian modelling approach. The model appears to work well in a community-based population but not in individuals with a higher risk for knee osteoarthritis, and it may provide a convenient tool for use in primary care to predict the risk of knee pain in the general population.

  15. Spatial data quality and coastal spill modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Y.; Brimicombe, A.J.; Ralphs, M.P.

    1998-01-01

    Issues of spatial data quality are central to the whole oil spill modelling process. Both model and data quality performance issues should be considered as indispensable parts of a complete oil spill model specification and testing procedure. This paper presents initial results of research that will emphasise to modeler and manager alike the practical issues of spatial data quality for coastal oil spill modelling. It is centred around a case study of Jiao Zhou Bay in the People's Republic of China. The implications for coastal oil spill modelling are discussed and some strategies for managing the effects of spatial data quality in the outputs of oil spill modelling are explored. (author)

  16. A Dynamic Bayesian Network Model for the Production and Inventory Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Ji-Sun; Takazaki, Noriyuki; Lee, Tae-Hong; Kim, Jin-Il; Lee, Hee-Hyol

    In general, the production quantities and delivered goods are changed randomly and then the total stock is also changed randomly. This paper deals with the production and inventory control using the Dynamic Bayesian Network. Bayesian Network is a probabilistic model which represents the qualitative dependence between two or more random variables by the graph structure, and indicates the quantitative relations between individual variables by the conditional probability. The probabilistic distribution of the total stock is calculated through the propagation of the probability on the network. Moreover, an adjusting rule of the production quantities to maintain the probability of a lower limit and a ceiling of the total stock to certain values is shown.

  17. Bayesian Inference on the Memory Parameter for Gamma-Modulated Regression Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Plinio Andrade

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we propose a Bayesian methodology to make inferences for the memory parameter and other characteristics under non-standard assumptions for a class of stochastic processes. This class generalizes the Gamma-modulated process, with trajectories that exhibit long memory behavior, as well as decreasing variability as time increases. Different values of the memory parameter influence the speed of this decrease, making this heteroscedastic model very flexible. Its properties are used to implement an approximate Bayesian computation and MCMC scheme to obtain posterior estimates. We test and validate our method through simulations and real data from the big earthquake that occurred in 2010 in Chile.

  18. Bayesian models based on test statistics for multiple hypothesis testing problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Yuan; Lu, Yiling; Mills, Gordon B

    2008-04-01

    We propose a Bayesian method for the problem of multiple hypothesis testing that is routinely encountered in bioinformatics research, such as the differential gene expression analysis. Our algorithm is based on modeling the distributions of test statistics under both null and alternative hypotheses. We substantially reduce the complexity of the process of defining posterior model probabilities by modeling the test statistics directly instead of modeling the full data. Computationally, we apply a Bayesian FDR approach to control the number of rejections of null hypotheses. To check if our model assumptions for the test statistics are valid for various bioinformatics experiments, we also propose a simple graphical model-assessment tool. Using extensive simulations, we demonstrate the performance of our models and the utility of the model-assessment tool. In the end, we apply the proposed methodology to an siRNA screening and a gene expression experiment.

  19. Adaptive surrogate modeling for response surface approximations with application to bayesian inference

    KAUST Repository

    Prudhomme, Serge; Bryant, Corey M.

    2015-01-01

    Parameter estimation for complex models using Bayesian inference is usually a very costly process as it requires a large number of solves of the forward problem. We show here how the construction of adaptive surrogate models using a posteriori error estimates for quantities of interest can significantly reduce the computational cost in problems of statistical inference. As surrogate models provide only approximations of the true solutions of the forward problem, it is nevertheless necessary to control these errors in order to construct an accurate reduced model with respect to the observables utilized in the identification of the model parameters. Effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated on a numerical example dealing with the Spalart–Allmaras model for the simulation of turbulent channel flows. In particular, we illustrate how Bayesian model selection using the adapted surrogate model in place of solving the coupled nonlinear equations leads to the same quality of results while requiring fewer nonlinear PDE solves.

  20. Adaptive surrogate modeling for response surface approximations with application to bayesian inference

    KAUST Repository

    Prudhomme, Serge

    2015-09-17

    Parameter estimation for complex models using Bayesian inference is usually a very costly process as it requires a large number of solves of the forward problem. We show here how the construction of adaptive surrogate models using a posteriori error estimates for quantities of interest can significantly reduce the computational cost in problems of statistical inference. As surrogate models provide only approximations of the true solutions of the forward problem, it is nevertheless necessary to control these errors in order to construct an accurate reduced model with respect to the observables utilized in the identification of the model parameters. Effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated on a numerical example dealing with the Spalart–Allmaras model for the simulation of turbulent channel flows. In particular, we illustrate how Bayesian model selection using the adapted surrogate model in place of solving the coupled nonlinear equations leads to the same quality of results while requiring fewer nonlinear PDE solves.

  1. How robust are the estimated effects of air pollution on health? Accounting for model uncertainty using Bayesian model averaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pannullo, Francesca; Lee, Duncan; Waclawski, Eugene; Leyland, Alastair H

    2016-08-01

    The long-term impact of air pollution on human health can be estimated from small-area ecological studies in which the health outcome is regressed against air pollution concentrations and other covariates, such as socio-economic deprivation. Socio-economic deprivation is multi-factorial and difficult to measure, and includes aspects of income, education, and housing as well as others. However, these variables are potentially highly correlated, meaning one can either create an overall deprivation index, or use the individual characteristics, which can result in a variety of pollution-health effects. Other aspects of model choice may affect the pollution-health estimate, such as the estimation of pollution, and spatial autocorrelation model. Therefore, we propose a Bayesian model averaging approach to combine the results from multiple statistical models to produce a more robust representation of the overall pollution-health effect. We investigate the relationship between nitrogen dioxide concentrations and cardio-respiratory mortality in West Central Scotland between 2006 and 2012. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  2. [Evaluation of estimation of prevalence ratio using bayesian log-binomial regression model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, W L; Lin, H; Liu, X N; Ren, X W; Li, J S; Shen, X P; Zhu, S L

    2017-03-10

    To evaluate the estimation of prevalence ratio ( PR ) by using bayesian log-binomial regression model and its application, we estimated the PR of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea in their infants by using bayesian log-binomial regression model in Openbugs software. The results showed that caregivers' recognition of infant' s risk signs of diarrhea was associated significantly with a 13% increase of medical care-seeking. Meanwhile, we compared the differences in PR 's point estimation and its interval estimation of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea and convergence of three models (model 1: not adjusting for the covariates; model 2: adjusting for duration of caregivers' education, model 3: adjusting for distance between village and township and child month-age based on model 2) between bayesian log-binomial regression model and conventional log-binomial regression model. The results showed that all three bayesian log-binomial regression models were convergence and the estimated PRs were 1.130(95 %CI : 1.005-1.265), 1.128(95 %CI : 1.001-1.264) and 1.132(95 %CI : 1.004-1.267), respectively. Conventional log-binomial regression model 1 and model 2 were convergence and their PRs were 1.130(95 % CI : 1.055-1.206) and 1.126(95 % CI : 1.051-1.203), respectively, but the model 3 was misconvergence, so COPY method was used to estimate PR , which was 1.125 (95 %CI : 1.051-1.200). In addition, the point estimation and interval estimation of PRs from three bayesian log-binomial regression models differed slightly from those of PRs from conventional log-binomial regression model, but they had a good consistency in estimating PR . Therefore, bayesian log-binomial regression model can effectively estimate PR with less misconvergence and have more advantages in application compared with conventional log-binomial regression model.

  3. Multiview Bayesian Correlated Component Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamronn, Simon Due; Poulsen, Andreas Trier; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2015-01-01

    are identical. Here we propose a hierarchical probabilistic model that can infer the level of universality in such multiview data, from completely unrelated representations, corresponding to canonical correlation analysis, to identical representations as in correlated component analysis. This new model, which...... we denote Bayesian correlated component analysis, evaluates favorably against three relevant algorithms in simulated data. A well-established benchmark EEG data set is used to further validate the new model and infer the variability of spatial representations across multiple subjects....

  4. Using Bayesian statistics for modeling PTSD through Latent Growth Mixture Modeling: implementation and discussion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Depaoli

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: After traumatic events, such as disaster, war trauma, and injuries including burns (which is the focus here, the risk to develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD is approximately 10% (Breslau & Davis, 1992. Latent Growth Mixture Modeling can be used to classify individuals into distinct groups exhibiting different patterns of PTSD (Galatzer-Levy, 2015. Currently, empirical evidence points to four distinct trajectories of PTSD patterns in those who have experienced burn trauma. These trajectories are labeled as: resilient, recovery, chronic, and delayed onset trajectories (e.g., Bonanno, 2004; Bonanno, Brewin, Kaniasty, & Greca, 2010; Maercker, Gäbler, O'Neil, Schützwohl, & Müller, 2013; Pietrzak et al., 2013. The delayed onset trajectory affects only a small group of individuals, that is, about 4–5% (O'Donnell, Elliott, Lau, & Creamer, 2007. In addition to its low frequency, the later onset of this trajectory may contribute to the fact that these individuals can be easily overlooked by professionals. In this special symposium on Estimating PTSD trajectories (Van de Schoot, 2015a, we illustrate how to properly identify this small group of individuals through the Bayesian estimation framework using previous knowledge through priors (see, e.g., Depaoli & Boyajian, 2014; Van de Schoot, Broere, Perryck, Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, & Van Loey, 2015. Method: We used latent growth mixture modeling (LGMM (Van de Schoot, 2015b to estimate PTSD trajectories across 4 years that followed a traumatic burn. We demonstrate and compare results from traditional (maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation using priors (see, Depaoli, 2012, 2013. Further, we discuss where priors come from and how to define them in the estimation process. Results: We demonstrate that only the Bayesian approach results in the desired theory-driven solution of PTSD trajectories. Since the priors are chosen subjectively, we also present a sensitivity analysis of the

  5. Evidence on a Real Business Cycle Model with Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks using Bayesian Model Averaging

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe empirical support for a real business cycle model with two technology shocks is evaluated using a Bayesian model averaging procedure. This procedure makes use of a finite mixture of many models within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. The linear VAR model is

  6. Bayesian Analysis of Multidimensional Item Response Theory Models: A Discussion and Illustration of Three Response Style Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leventhal, Brian C.; Stone, Clement A.

    2018-01-01

    Interest in Bayesian analysis of item response theory (IRT) models has grown tremendously due to the appeal of the paradigm among psychometricians, advantages of these methods when analyzing complex models, and availability of general-purpose software. Possible models include models which reflect multidimensionality due to designed test structure,…

  7. Bayesian state space models for dynamic genetic network construction across multiple tissues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad

    2016-08-01

    Construction of gene-gene interaction networks and potential pathways is a challenging and important problem in genomic research for complex diseases while estimating the dynamic changes of the temporal correlations and non-stationarity are the keys in this process. In this paper, we develop dynamic state space models with hierarchical Bayesian settings to tackle this challenge for inferring the dynamic profiles and genetic networks associated with disease treatments. We treat both the stochastic transition matrix and the observation matrix time-variant and include temporal correlation structures in the covariance matrix estimations in the multivariate Bayesian state space models. The unevenly spaced short time courses with unseen time points are treated as hidden state variables. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches with various prior and hyper-prior models with Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Gibbs sampling algorithms are used to estimate the model parameters and the hidden state variables. We apply the proposed Hierarchical Bayesian state space models to multiple tissues (liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney) Affymetrix time course data sets following corticosteroid (CS) drug administration. Both simulation and real data analysis results show that the genomic changes over time and gene-gene interaction in response to CS treatment can be well captured by the proposed models. The proposed dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian state space modeling approaches could be expanded and applied to other large scale genomic data, such as next generation sequence (NGS) combined with real time and time varying electronic health record (EHR) for more comprehensive and robust systematic and network based analysis in order to transform big biomedical data into predictions and diagnostics for precision medicine and personalized healthcare with better decision making and patient outcomes.

  8. A comparison of machine learning and Bayesian modelling for molecular serotyping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Richard; Wernisch, Lorenz

    2017-08-11

    Streptococcus pneumoniae is a human pathogen that is a major cause of infant mortality. Identifying the pneumococcal serotype is an important step in monitoring the impact of vaccines used to protect against disease. Genomic microarrays provide an effective method for molecular serotyping. Previously we developed an empirical Bayesian model for the classification of serotypes from a molecular serotyping array. With only few samples available, a model driven approach was the only option. In the meanwhile, several thousand samples have been made available to us, providing an opportunity to investigate serotype classification by machine learning methods, which could complement the Bayesian model. We compare the performance of the original Bayesian model with two machine learning algorithms: Gradient Boosting Machines and Random Forests. We present our results as an example of a generic strategy whereby a preliminary probabilistic model is complemented or replaced by a machine learning classifier once enough data are available. Despite the availability of thousands of serotyping arrays, a problem encountered when applying machine learning methods is the lack of training data containing mixtures of serotypes; due to the large number of possible combinations. Most of the available training data comprises samples with only a single serotype. To overcome the lack of training data we implemented an iterative analysis, creating artificial training data of serotype mixtures by combining raw data from single serotype arrays. With the enhanced training set the machine learning algorithms out perform the original Bayesian model. However, for serotypes currently lacking sufficient training data the best performing implementation was a combination of the results of the Bayesian Model and the Gradient Boosting Machine. As well as being an effective method for classifying biological data, machine learning can also be used as an efficient method for revealing subtle biological

  9. Maximum entropy perception-action space: a Bayesian model of eye movement selection

    OpenAIRE

    Colas , Francis; Bessière , Pierre; Girard , Benoît

    2010-01-01

    International audience; In this article, we investigate the issue of the selection of eye movements in a free-eye Multiple Object Tracking task. We propose a Bayesian model of retinotopic maps with a complex logarithmic mapping. This model is structured in two parts: a representation of the visual scene, and a decision model based on the representation. We compare different decision models based on different features of the representation and we show that taking into account uncertainty helps...

  10. A Robust Bayesian Approach for Structural Equation Models with Missing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sik-Yum; Xia, Ye-Mao

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, normal/independent distributions, including but not limited to the multivariate t distribution, the multivariate contaminated distribution, and the multivariate slash distribution, are used to develop a robust Bayesian approach for analyzing structural equation models with complete or missing data. In the context of a nonlinear…

  11. What Type of Finance Matters for Growth? Bayesian Model Averaging Evidence

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Iftekhar, H.; Horváth, Roman; Mareš, J.

    -, - (2018) ISSN 0258-6770 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA16-09190S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : long-term economic growth * Bayesian model * uncertainty Subject RIV: AH - Economic s Impact factor: 1.431, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/horvath-0466516.pdf

  12. Bayesian modeling of ChIP-chip data using latent variables.

    KAUST Repository

    Wu, Mingqi; Liang, Faming; Tian, Yanan

    2009-01-01

    and plants. Various methods have been proposed in the literature for analyzing the ChIP-chip data, such as the sliding window methods, the hidden Markov model-based methods, and Bayesian methods. Although, due to the integrated consideration of uncertainty

  13. Fast and accurate Bayesian model criticism and conflict diagnostics using R-INLA

    KAUST Repository

    Ferkingstad, Egil; Held, Leonhard; Rue, Haavard

    2017-01-01

    . Usually, a Bayesian hierarchical model incorporates a grouping of the individual data points, as, for example, with individuals in repeated measurement data. In such cases, the following question arises: Are any of the groups “outliers,” or in conflict

  14. A Bayesian Performance Prediction Model for Mathematics Education: A Prototypical Approach for Effective Group Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekele, Rahel; McPherson, Maggie

    2011-01-01

    This research work presents a Bayesian Performance Prediction Model that was created in order to determine the strength of personality traits in predicting the level of mathematics performance of high school students in Addis Ababa. It is an automated tool that can be used to collect information from students for the purpose of effective group…

  15. A Bayesian Beta-Mixture Model for Nonparametric IRT (BBM-IRT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arenson, Ethan A.; Karabatsos, George

    2017-01-01

    Item response models typically assume that the item characteristic (step) curves follow a logistic or normal cumulative distribution function, which are strictly monotone functions of person test ability. Such assumptions can be overly-restrictive for real item response data. We propose a simple and more flexible Bayesian nonparametric IRT model…

  16. Food Reconstruction Using Isotopic Transferred Signals (FRUITS): A Bayesian Model for Diet Reconstruction

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fernandes, R.; Millard, A.R.; Brabec, Marek; Nadeau, M.J.; Grootes, P.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 2 (2014), Art . no. e87436 E-ISSN 1932-6203 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : ancienit diet reconstruction * stable isotope measurements * mixture model * Bayesian estimation * Dirichlet prior Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 3.234, year: 2014

  17. An Application of Bayesian Approach in Modeling Risk of Death in an Intensive Care Unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Rowena Syn Yin; Ismail, Noor Azina

    2016-01-01

    There are not many studies that attempt to model intensive care unit (ICU) risk of death in developing countries, especially in South East Asia. The aim of this study was to propose and describe application of a Bayesian approach in modeling in-ICU deaths in a Malaysian ICU. This was a prospective study in a mixed medical-surgery ICU in a multidisciplinary tertiary referral hospital in Malaysia. Data collection included variables that were defined in Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV) model. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach was applied in the development of four multivariate logistic regression predictive models for the ICU, where the main outcome measure was in-ICU mortality risk. The performance of the models were assessed through overall model fit, discrimination and calibration measures. Results from the Bayesian models were also compared against results obtained using frequentist maximum likelihood method. The study involved 1,286 consecutive ICU admissions between January 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010, of which 1,111 met the inclusion criteria. Patients who were admitted to the ICU were generally younger, predominantly male, with low co-morbidity load and mostly under mechanical ventilation. The overall in-ICU mortality rate was 18.5% and the overall mean Acute Physiology Score (APS) was 68.5. All four models exhibited good discrimination, with area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values approximately 0.8. Calibration was acceptable (Hosmer-Lemeshow p-values > 0.05) for all models, except for model M3. Model M1 was identified as the model with the best overall performance in this study. Four prediction models were proposed, where the best model was chosen based on its overall performance in this study. This study has also demonstrated the promising potential of the Bayesian MCMC approach as an alternative in the analysis and modeling of in-ICU mortality outcomes.

  18. An Application of Bayesian Approach in Modeling Risk of Death in an Intensive Care Unit.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rowena Syn Yin Wong

    Full Text Available There are not many studies that attempt to model intensive care unit (ICU risk of death in developing countries, especially in South East Asia. The aim of this study was to propose and describe application of a Bayesian approach in modeling in-ICU deaths in a Malaysian ICU.This was a prospective study in a mixed medical-surgery ICU in a multidisciplinary tertiary referral hospital in Malaysia. Data collection included variables that were defined in Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV model. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulation approach was applied in the development of four multivariate logistic regression predictive models for the ICU, where the main outcome measure was in-ICU mortality risk. The performance of the models were assessed through overall model fit, discrimination and calibration measures. Results from the Bayesian models were also compared against results obtained using frequentist maximum likelihood method.The study involved 1,286 consecutive ICU admissions between January 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010, of which 1,111 met the inclusion criteria. Patients who were admitted to the ICU were generally younger, predominantly male, with low co-morbidity load and mostly under mechanical ventilation. The overall in-ICU mortality rate was 18.5% and the overall mean Acute Physiology Score (APS was 68.5. All four models exhibited good discrimination, with area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC values approximately 0.8. Calibration was acceptable (Hosmer-Lemeshow p-values > 0.05 for all models, except for model M3. Model M1 was identified as the model with the best overall performance in this study.Four prediction models were proposed, where the best model was chosen based on its overall performance in this study. This study has also demonstrated the promising potential of the Bayesian MCMC approach as an alternative in the analysis and modeling of in-ICU mortality outcomes.

  19. Bayesian model selection validates a biokinetic model for zirconium processing in humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background In radiation protection, biokinetic models for zirconium processing are of crucial importance in dose estimation and further risk analysis for humans exposed to this radioactive substance. They provide limiting values of detrimental effects and build the basis for applications in internal dosimetry, the prediction for radioactive zirconium retention in various organs as well as retrospective dosimetry. Multi-compartmental models are the tool of choice for simulating the processing of zirconium. Although easily interpretable, determining the exact compartment structure and interaction mechanisms is generally daunting. In the context of observing the dynamics of multiple compartments, Bayesian methods provide efficient tools for model inference and selection. Results We are the first to apply a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to compute Bayes factors for the evaluation of two competing models for zirconium processing in the human body after ingestion. Based on in vivo measurements of human plasma and urine levels we were able to show that a recently published model is superior to the standard model of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The Bayes factors were estimated by means of the numerically stable thermodynamic integration in combination with a recently developed copula-based Metropolis-Hastings sampler. Conclusions In contrast to the standard model the novel model predicts lower accretion of zirconium in bones. This results in lower levels of noxious doses for exposed individuals. Moreover, the Bayesian approach allows for retrospective dose assessment, including credible intervals for the initially ingested zirconium, in a significantly more reliable fashion than previously possible. All methods presented here are readily applicable to many modeling tasks in systems biology. PMID:22863152

  20. Climatic Models Ensemble-based Mid-21st Century Runoff Projections: A Bayesian Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achieng, K. O.; Zhu, J.

    2017-12-01

    There are a number of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climatic models that have been used to project surface runoff in the mid-21st century. Statistical model selection techniques are often used to select the model that best fits data. However, model selection techniques often lead to different conclusions. In this study, ten models are averaged in Bayesian paradigm to project runoff. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is used to project and identify effect of model uncertainty on future runoff projections. Baseflow separation - a two-digital filter which is also called Eckhardt filter - is used to separate USGS streamflow (total runoff) into two components: baseflow and surface runoff. We use this surface runoff as the a priori runoff when conducting BMA of runoff simulated from the ten RCM models. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate how well RCM multi-model ensembles simulate surface runoff, in a Bayesian framework. Specifically, we investigate and discuss the following questions: How well do ten RCM models ensemble jointly simulate surface runoff by averaging over all the models using BMA, given a priori surface runoff? What are the effects of model uncertainty on surface runoff simulation?

  1. A spatio-temporal nonparametric Bayesian variable selection model of fMRI data for clustering correlated time courses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Linlin; Guindani, Michele; Versace, Francesco; Vannucci, Marina

    2014-07-15

    In this paper we present a novel wavelet-based Bayesian nonparametric regression model for the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Our goal is to provide a joint analytical framework that allows to detect regions of the brain which exhibit neuronal activity in response to a stimulus and, simultaneously, infer the association, or clustering, of spatially remote voxels that exhibit fMRI time series with similar characteristics. We start by modeling the data with a hemodynamic response function (HRF) with a voxel-dependent shape parameter. We detect regions of the brain activated in response to a given stimulus by using mixture priors with a spike at zero on the coefficients of the regression model. We account for the complex spatial correlation structure of the brain by using a Markov random field (MRF) prior on the parameters guiding the selection of the activated voxels, therefore capturing correlation among nearby voxels. In order to infer association of the voxel time courses, we assume correlated errors, in particular long memory, and exploit the whitening properties of discrete wavelet transforms. Furthermore, we achieve clustering of the voxels by imposing a Dirichlet process (DP) prior on the parameters of the long memory process. For inference, we use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques that combine Metropolis-Hastings schemes employed in Bayesian variable selection with sampling algorithms for nonparametric DP models. We explore the performance of the proposed model on simulated data, with both block- and event-related design, and on real fMRI data. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Intelligent spatial ecosystem modeling using parallel processors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maxwell, T.; Costanza, R.

    1993-01-01

    Spatial modeling of ecosystems is essential if one's modeling goals include developing a relatively realistic description of past behavior and predictions of the impacts of alternative management policies on future ecosystem behavior. Development of these models has been limited in the past by the large amount of input data required and the difficulty of even large mainframe serial computers in dealing with large spatial arrays. These two limitations have begun to erode with the increasing availability of remote sensing data and GIS systems to manipulate it, and the development of parallel computer systems which allow computation of large, complex, spatial arrays. Although many forms of dynamic spatial modeling are highly amenable to parallel processing, the primary focus in this project is on process-based landscape models. These models simulate spatial structure by first compartmentalizing the landscape into some geometric design and then describing flows within compartments and spatial processes between compartments according to location-specific algorithms. The authors are currently building and running parallel spatial models at the regional scale for the Patuxent River region in Maryland, the Everglades in Florida, and Barataria Basin in Louisiana. The authors are also planning a project to construct a series of spatially explicit linked ecological and economic simulation models aimed at assessing the long-term potential impacts of global climate change

  3. Dynamic spatial panels : models, methods, and inferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elhorst, J. Paul

    This paper provides a survey of the existing literature on the specification and estimation of dynamic spatial panel data models, a collection of models for spatial panels extended to include one or more of the following variables and/or error terms: a dependent variable lagged in time, a dependent

  4. Non-parametric Bayesian graph models reveal community structure in resting state fMRI

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Kasper Winther; Madsen, Kristoffer H.; Siebner, Hartwig Roman

    2014-01-01

    Modeling of resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) data using network models is of increasing interest. It is often desirable to group nodes into clusters to interpret the communication patterns between nodes. In this study we consider three different nonparametric Bayesian...... models for node clustering in complex networks. In particular, we test their ability to predict unseen data and their ability to reproduce clustering across datasets. The three generative models considered are the Infinite Relational Model (IRM), Bayesian Community Detection (BCD), and the Infinite...... between clusters. BCD restricts the between-cluster link probabilities to be strictly lower than within-cluster link probabilities to conform to the community structure typically seen in social networks. IDM only models a single between-cluster link probability, which can be interpreted as a background...

  5. Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of particulate matter concentrations in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manga, Edna; Awang, Norhashidah

    2016-06-01

    This article presents an application of a Bayesian spatio-temporal Gaussian process (GP) model on particulate matter concentrations from Peninsular Malaysia. We analyze daily PM10 concentration levels from 35 monitoring sites in June and July 2011. The spatiotemporal model set in a Bayesian hierarchical framework allows for inclusion of informative covariates, meteorological variables and spatiotemporal interactions. Posterior density estimates of the model parameters are obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Preliminary data analysis indicate information on PM10 levels at sites classified as industrial locations could explain part of the space time variations. We include the site-type indicator in our modeling efforts. Results of the parameter estimates for the fitted GP model show significant spatio-temporal structure and positive effect of the location-type explanatory variable. We also compute some validation criteria for the out of sample sites that show the adequacy of the model for predicting PM10 at unmonitored sites.

  6. Spatial modeling for groundwater arsenic levels in North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dohyeong; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Tootoo, Joshua; Bradley, Phil; Gelfand, Alan E

    2011-06-01

    To examine environmental and geologic determinants of arsenic in groundwater, detailed geologic data were integrated with well water arsenic concentration data and well construction data for 471 private wells in Orange County, NC, via a geographic information system. For the statistical analysis, the geologic units were simplified into four generalized categories based on rock type and interpreted mode of deposition/emplacement. The geologic transitions from rocks of a primary pyroclastic origin to rocks of volcaniclastic sedimentary origin were designated as polylines. The data were fitted to a left-censored regression model to identify key determinants of arsenic levels in groundwater. A Bayesian spatial random effects model was then developed to capture any spatial patterns in groundwater arsenic residuals into model estimation. Statistical model results indicate (1) wells close to a transition zone or fault are more likely to contain detectible arsenic; (2) welded tuffs and hydrothermal quartz bodies are associated with relatively higher groundwater arsenic concentrations and even higher for those proximal to a pluton; and (3) wells of greater depth are more likely to contain elevated arsenic. This modeling effort informs policy intervention by creating three-dimensional maps of predicted arsenic levels in groundwater for any location and depth in the area.

  7. Spatial Modeling for Groundwater Arsenic Levels in North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dohyeong; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Tootoo, Joshua; Bradley, Phil; Gelfand, Alan E.

    2013-01-01

    To examine environmental and geologic determinants of arsenic in groundwater, detailed geologic data were integrated with well water arsenic concentration data and well construction data for 471 private wells in Orange County, NC, via a geographic information system. For the statistical analysis, the geologic units were simplified into four generalized categories based on rock type and interpreted mode of deposition/emplacement. The geologic transitions from rocks of a primary pyroclastic origin to rocks of volcaniclastic sedimentary origin were designated as polylines. The data were fitted to a left-censored regression model to identify key determinants of arsenic levels in groundwater. A Bayesian spatial random effects model was then developed to capture any spatial patterns in groundwater arsenic residuals into model estimation. Statistical model results indicate (1) wells close to a transition zone or fault are more likely to contain detectible arsenic; (2) welded tuffs and hydrothermal quartz bodies are associated with relatively higher groundwater arsenic concentrations and even higher for those proximal to a pluton; and (3) wells of greater depth are more likely to contain elevated arsenic. This modeling effort informs policy intervention by creating three-dimensional maps of predicted arsenic levels in groundwater for any location and depth in the area. PMID:21528844

  8. Spatial modeling for groundwater arsenic levels in North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, D.; Miranda, M.L.; Tootoo, J.; Bradley, P.; Gelfand, A.E.

    2011-01-01

    To examine environmental and geologic determinants of arsenic in groundwater, detailed geologic data were integrated with well water arsenic concentration data and