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Sample records for bayesian sequential change

  1. A Bayesian sequential processor approach to spectroscopic portal system decisions

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    Sale, K; Candy, J; Breitfeller, E; Guidry, B; Manatt, D; Gosnell, T; Chambers, D

    2007-07-31

    The development of faster more reliable techniques to detect radioactive contraband in a portal type scenario is an extremely important problem especially in this era of constant terrorist threats. Towards this goal the development of a model-based, Bayesian sequential data processor for the detection problem is discussed. In the sequential processor each datum (detector energy deposit and pulse arrival time) is used to update the posterior probability distribution over the space of model parameters. The nature of the sequential processor approach is that a detection is produced as soon as it is statistically justified by the data rather than waiting for a fixed counting interval before any analysis is performed. In this paper the Bayesian model-based approach, physics and signal processing models and decision functions are discussed along with the first results of our research.

  2. A Bayesian Optimal Design for Sequential Accelerated Degradation Testing

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    Xiaoyang Li

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available When optimizing an accelerated degradation testing (ADT plan, the initial values of unknown model parameters must be pre-specified. However, it is usually difficult to obtain the exact values, since many uncertainties are embedded in these parameters. Bayesian ADT optimal design was presented to address this problem by using prior distributions to capture these uncertainties. Nevertheless, when the difference between a prior distribution and actual situation is large, the existing Bayesian optimal design might cause some over-testing or under-testing issues. For example, the implemented ADT following the optimal ADT plan consumes too much testing resources or few accelerated degradation data are obtained during the ADT. To overcome these obstacles, a Bayesian sequential step-down-stress ADT design is proposed in this article. During the sequential ADT, the test under the highest stress level is firstly conducted based on the initial prior information to quickly generate degradation data. Then, the data collected under higher stress levels are employed to construct the prior distributions for the test design under lower stress levels by using the Bayesian inference. In the process of optimization, the inverse Gaussian (IG process is assumed to describe the degradation paths, and the Bayesian D-optimality is selected as the optimal objective. A case study on an electrical connector’s ADT plan is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed Bayesian sequential ADT design method. Compared with the results from a typical static Bayesian ADT plan, the proposed design could guarantee more stable and precise estimations of different reliability measures.

  3. A Bayesian sequential design with adaptive randomization for 2-sided hypothesis test.

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    Yu, Qingzhao; Zhu, Lin; Zhu, Han

    2017-11-01

    Bayesian sequential and adaptive randomization designs are gaining popularity in clinical trials thanks to their potentials to reduce the number of required participants and save resources. We propose a Bayesian sequential design with adaptive randomization rates so as to more efficiently attribute newly recruited patients to different treatment arms. In this paper, we consider 2-arm clinical trials. Patients are allocated to the 2 arms with a randomization rate to achieve minimum variance for the test statistic. Algorithms are presented to calculate the optimal randomization rate, critical values, and power for the proposed design. Sensitivity analysis is implemented to check the influence on design by changing the prior distributions. Simulation studies are applied to compare the proposed method and traditional methods in terms of power and actual sample sizes. Simulations show that, when total sample size is fixed, the proposed design can obtain greater power and/or cost smaller actual sample size than the traditional Bayesian sequential design. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a real data set and compare the results with the Bayesian sequential design without adaptive randomization in terms of sample sizes. The proposed method can further reduce required sample size. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. A Bayesian Theory of Sequential Causal Learning and Abstract Transfer.

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    Lu, Hongjing; Rojas, Randall R; Beckers, Tom; Yuille, Alan L

    2016-03-01

    Two key research issues in the field of causal learning are how people acquire causal knowledge when observing data that are presented sequentially, and the level of abstraction at which learning takes place. Does sequential causal learning solely involve the acquisition of specific cause-effect links, or do learners also acquire knowledge about abstract causal constraints? Recent empirical studies have revealed that experience with one set of causal cues can dramatically alter subsequent learning and performance with entirely different cues, suggesting that learning involves abstract transfer, and such transfer effects involve sequential presentation of distinct sets of causal cues. It has been demonstrated that pre-training (or even post-training) can modulate classic causal learning phenomena such as forward and backward blocking. To account for these effects, we propose a Bayesian theory of sequential causal learning. The theory assumes that humans are able to consider and use several alternative causal generative models, each instantiating a different causal integration rule. Model selection is used to decide which integration rule to use in a given learning environment in order to infer causal knowledge from sequential data. Detailed computer simulations demonstrate that humans rely on the abstract characteristics of outcome variables (e.g., binary vs. continuous) to select a causal integration rule, which in turn alters causal learning in a variety of blocking and overshadowing paradigms. When the nature of the outcome variable is ambiguous, humans select the model that yields the best fit with the recent environment, and then apply it to subsequent learning tasks. Based on sequential patterns of cue-outcome co-occurrence, the theory can account for a range of phenomena in sequential causal learning, including various blocking effects, primacy effects in some experimental conditions, and apparently abstract transfer of causal knowledge. Copyright © 2015

  5. Robust real-time pattern matching using bayesian sequential hypothesis testing.

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    Pele, Ofir; Werman, Michael

    2008-08-01

    This paper describes a method for robust real time pattern matching. We first introduce a family of image distance measures, the "Image Hamming Distance Family". Members of this family are robust to occlusion, small geometrical transforms, light changes and non-rigid deformations. We then present a novel Bayesian framework for sequential hypothesis testing on finite populations. Based on this framework, we design an optimal rejection/acceptance sampling algorithm. This algorithm quickly determines whether two images are similar with respect to a member of the Image Hamming Distance Family. We also present a fast framework that designs a near-optimal sampling algorithm. Extensive experimental results show that the sequential sampling algorithm performance is excellent. Implemented on a Pentium 4 3 GHz processor, detection of a pattern with 2197 pixels, in 640 x 480 pixel frames, where in each frame the pattern rotated and was highly occluded, proceeds at only 0.022 seconds per frame.

  6. A Bayesian sequential design using alpha spending function to control type I error.

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    Zhu, Han; Yu, Qingzhao

    2017-10-01

    We propose in this article a Bayesian sequential design using alpha spending functions to control the overall type I error in phase III clinical trials. We provide algorithms to calculate critical values, power, and sample sizes for the proposed design. Sensitivity analysis is implemented to check the effects from different prior distributions, and conservative priors are recommended. We compare the power and actual sample sizes of the proposed Bayesian sequential design with different alpha spending functions through simulations. We also compare the power of the proposed method with frequentist sequential design using the same alpha spending function. Simulations show that, at the same sample size, the proposed method provides larger power than the corresponding frequentist sequential design. It also has larger power than traditional Bayesian sequential design which sets equal critical values for all interim analyses. When compared with other alpha spending functions, O'Brien-Fleming alpha spending function has the largest power and is the most conservative in terms that at the same sample size, the null hypothesis is the least likely to be rejected at early stage of clinical trials. And finally, we show that adding a step of stop for futility in the Bayesian sequential design can reduce the overall type I error and reduce the actual sample sizes.

  7. Sequential Inverse Problems Bayesian Principles and the Logistic Map Example

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    Duan, Lian; Farmer, Chris L.; Moroz, Irene M.

    2010-09-01

    Bayesian statistics provides a general framework for solving inverse problems, but is not without interpretation and implementation problems. This paper discusses difficulties arising from the fact that forward models are always in error to some extent. Using a simple example based on the one-dimensional logistic map, we argue that, when implementation problems are minimal, the Bayesian framework is quite adequate. In this paper the Bayesian Filter is shown to be able to recover excellent state estimates in the perfect model scenario (PMS) and to distinguish the PMS from the imperfect model scenario (IMS). Through a quantitative comparison of the way in which the observations are assimilated in both the PMS and the IMS scenarios, we suggest that one can, sometimes, measure the degree of imperfection.

  8. Environmentally adaptive processing for shallow ocean applications: A sequential Bayesian approach.

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    Candy, J V

    2015-09-01

    The shallow ocean is a changing environment primarily due to temperature variations in its upper layers directly affecting sound propagation throughout. The need to develop processors capable of tracking these changes implies a stochastic as well as an environmentally adaptive design. Bayesian techniques have evolved to enable a class of processors capable of performing in such an uncertain, nonstationary (varying statistics), non-Gaussian, variable shallow ocean environment. A solution to this problem is addressed by developing a sequential Bayesian processor capable of providing a joint solution to the modal function tracking and environmental adaptivity problem. Here, the focus is on the development of both a particle filter and an unscented Kalman filter capable of providing reasonable performance for this problem. These processors are applied to hydrophone measurements obtained from a vertical array. The adaptivity problem is attacked by allowing the modal coefficients and/or wavenumbers to be jointly estimated from the noisy measurement data along with tracking of the modal functions while simultaneously enhancing the noisy pressure-field measurements.

  9. Strategic Path Planning by Sequential Parametric Bayesian Decisions

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    Baro Hyun

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to generate a path for a mobile agent that carries sensors used for classification, where the path is to optimize strategic objectives that account for misclassification and the consequences of misclassification, and where the weights assigned to these consequences are chosen by a strategist. We propose a model that accounts for the interaction between the agent kinematics (i.e., the ability to move, informatics (i.e., the ability to process data to information, classification (i.e., the ability to classify objects based on the information, and strategy (i.e., the mission objective. Within this model, we pose and solve a sequential decision problem that accounts for strategist preferences and the solution to the problem yields a sequence of kinematic decisions of a moving agent. The solution of the sequential decision problem yields the following flying tactics: “approach only objects whose suspected identity matters to the strategy”. These tactics are numerically illustrated in several scenarios.

  10. Physics-based, Bayesian sequential detection method and system for radioactive contraband

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    Candy, James V; Axelrod, Michael C; Breitfeller, Eric F; Chambers, David H; Guidry, Brian L; Manatt, Douglas R; Meyer, Alan W; Sale, Kenneth E

    2014-03-18

    A distributed sequential method and system for detecting and identifying radioactive contraband from highly uncertain (noisy) low-count, radionuclide measurements, i.e. an event mode sequence (EMS), using a statistical approach based on Bayesian inference and physics-model-based signal processing based on the representation of a radionuclide as a monoenergetic decomposition of monoenergetic sources. For a given photon event of the EMS, the appropriate monoenergy processing channel is determined using a confidence interval condition-based discriminator for the energy amplitude and interarrival time and parameter estimates are used to update a measured probability density function estimate for a target radionuclide. A sequential likelihood ratio test is then used to determine one of two threshold conditions signifying that the EMS is either identified as the target radionuclide or not, and if not, then repeating the process for the next sequential photon event of the EMS until one of the two threshold conditions is satisfied.

  11. A computationally efficient Bayesian sequential simulation approach for the assimilation of vast and diverse hydrogeophysical datasets

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    Nussbaumer, Raphaël; Gloaguen, Erwan; Mariéthoz, Grégoire; Holliger, Klaus

    2016-04-01

    Bayesian sequential simulation (BSS) is a powerful geostatistical technique, which notably has shown significant potential for the assimilation of datasets that are diverse with regard to the spatial resolution and their relationship. However, these types of applications of BSS require a large number of realizations to adequately explore the solution space and to assess the corresponding uncertainties. Moreover, such simulations generally need to be performed on very fine grids in order to adequately exploit the technique's potential for characterizing heterogeneous environments. Correspondingly, the computational cost of BSS algorithms in their classical form is very high, which so far has limited an effective application of this method to large models and/or vast datasets. In this context, it is also important to note that the inherent assumption regarding the independence of the considered datasets is generally regarded as being too strong in the context of sequential simulation. To alleviate these problems, we have revisited the classical implementation of BSS and incorporated two key features to increase the computational efficiency. The first feature is a combined quadrant spiral - superblock search, which targets run-time savings on large grids and adds flexibility with regard to the selection of neighboring points using equal directional sampling and treating hard data and previously simulated points separately. The second feature is a constant path of simulation, which enhances the efficiency for multiple realizations. We have also modified the aggregation operator to be more flexible with regard to the assumption of independence of the considered datasets. This is achieved through log-linear pooling, which essentially allows for attributing weights to the various data components. Finally, a multi-grid simulating path was created to enforce large-scale variance and to allow for adapting parameters, such as, for example, the log-linear weights or the type

  12. Sequential Bayesian geoacoustic inversion for mobile and compact source-receiver configuration.

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    Carrière, Olivier; Hermand, Jean-Pierre

    2012-04-01

    Geoacoustic characterization of wide areas through inversion requires easily deployable configurations including free-drifting platforms, underwater gliders and autonomous vehicles, typically performing repeated transmissions during their course. In this paper, the inverse problem is formulated as sequential Bayesian filtering to take advantage of repeated transmission measurements. Nonlinear Kalman filters implement a random-walk model for geometry and environment and an acoustic propagation code in the measurement model. Data from MREA/BP07 sea trials are tested consisting of multitone and frequency-modulated signals (bands: 0.25-0.8 and 0.8-1.6 kHz) received on a shallow vertical array of four hydrophones 5-m spaced drifting over 0.7-1.6 km range. Space- and time-coherent processing are applied to the respective signal types. Kalman filter outputs are compared to a sequence of global optimizations performed independently on each received signal. For both signal types, the sequential approach is more accurate but also more efficient. Due to frequency diversity, the processing of modulated signals produces a more stable tracking. Although an extended Kalman filter provides comparable estimates of the tracked parameters, the ensemble Kalman filter is necessary to properly assess uncertainty. In spite of mild range dependence and simplified bottom model, all tracked geoacoustic parameters are consistent with high-resolution seismic profiling, core logging P-wave velocity, and previous inversion results with fixed geometries.

  13. astroABC : An Approximate Bayesian Computation Sequential Monte Carlo sampler for cosmological parameter estimation

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    Jennings, E.; Madigan, M.

    2017-04-01

    Given the complexity of modern cosmological parameter inference where we arefaced with non-Gaussian data and noise, correlated systematics and multi-probecorrelated data sets, the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) method is apromising alternative to traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo approaches in thecase where the Likelihood is intractable or unknown. The ABC method is called"Likelihood free" as it avoids explicit evaluation of the Likelihood by using aforward model simulation of the data which can include systematics. Weintroduce astroABC, an open source ABC Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler forparameter estimation. A key challenge in astrophysics is the efficient use oflarge multi-probe datasets to constrain high dimensional, possibly correlatedparameter spaces. With this in mind astroABC allows for massive parallelizationusing MPI, a framework that handles spawning of jobs across multiple nodes. Akey new feature of astroABC is the ability to create MPI groups with differentcommunicators, one for the sampler and several others for the forward modelsimulation, which speeds up sampling time considerably. For smaller jobs thePython multiprocessing option is also available. Other key features include: aSequential Monte Carlo sampler, a method for iteratively adapting tolerancelevels, local covariance estimate using scikit-learn's KDTree, modules forspecifying optimal covariance matrix for a component-wise or multivariatenormal perturbation kernel, output and restart files are backed up everyiteration, user defined metric and simulation methods, a module for specifyingheterogeneous parameter priors including non-standard prior PDFs, a module forspecifying a constant, linear, log or exponential tolerance level,well-documented examples and sample scripts. This code is hosted online athttps://github.com/EliseJ/astroABC

  14. Modelling Odor Decoding in the Antennal Lobe by Combining Sequential Firing Rate Models with Bayesian Inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Cuevas Rivera

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The olfactory information that is received by the insect brain is encoded in the form of spatiotemporal patterns in the projection neurons of the antennal lobe. These dense and overlapping patterns are transformed into a sparse code in Kenyon cells in the mushroom body. Although it is clear that this sparse code is the basis for rapid categorization of odors, it is yet unclear how the sparse code in Kenyon cells is computed and what information it represents. Here we show that this computation can be modeled by sequential firing rate patterns using Lotka-Volterra equations and Bayesian online inference. This new model can be understood as an 'intelligent coincidence detector', which robustly and dynamically encodes the presence of specific odor features. We found that the model is able to qualitatively reproduce experimentally observed activity in both the projection neurons and the Kenyon cells. In particular, the model explains mechanistically how sparse activity in the Kenyon cells arises from the dense code in the projection neurons. The odor classification performance of the model proved to be robust against noise and time jitter in the observed input sequences. As in recent experimental results, we found that recognition of an odor happened very early during stimulus presentation in the model. Critically, by using the model, we found surprising but simple computational explanations for several experimental phenomena.

  15. Assessment of groundwater level estimation uncertainty using sequential Gaussian simulation and Bayesian bootstrapping

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    Varouchakis, Emmanouil; Hristopulos, Dionissios

    2015-04-01

    Space-time geostatistical approaches can improve the reliability of dynamic groundwater level models in areas with limited spatial and temporal data. Space-time residual Kriging (STRK) is a reliable method for spatiotemporal interpolation that can incorporate auxiliary information. The method usually leads to an underestimation of the prediction uncertainty. The uncertainty of spatiotemporal models is usually estimated by determining the space-time Kriging variance or by means of cross validation analysis. For de-trended data the former is not usually applied when complex spatiotemporal trend functions are assigned. A Bayesian approach based on the bootstrap idea and sequential Gaussian simulation are employed to determine the uncertainty of the spatiotemporal model (trend and covariance) parameters. These stochastic modelling approaches produce multiple realizations, rank the prediction results on the basis of specified criteria and capture the range of the uncertainty. The correlation of the spatiotemporal residuals is modeled using a non-separable space-time variogram based on the Spartan covariance family (Hristopulos and Elogne 2007, Varouchakis and Hristopulos 2013). We apply these simulation methods to investigate the uncertainty of groundwater level variations. The available dataset consists of bi-annual (dry and wet hydrological period) groundwater level measurements in 15 monitoring locations for the time period 1981 to 2010. The space-time trend function is approximated using a physical law that governs the groundwater flow in the aquifer in the presence of pumping. The main objective of this research is to compare the performance of two simulation methods for prediction uncertainty estimation. In addition, we investigate the performance of the Spartan spatiotemporal covariance function for spatiotemporal geostatistical analysis. Hristopulos, D.T. and Elogne, S.N. 2007. Analytic properties and covariance functions for a new class of generalized Gibbs

  16. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of outcome- and process-based social preferences and beliefs in Dictator Games and sequential Prisoner's Dilemmas.

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    Aksoy, Ozan; Weesie, Jeroen

    2014-05-01

    In this paper, using a within-subjects design, we estimate the utility weights that subjects attach to the outcome of their interaction partners in four decision situations: (1) binary Dictator Games (DG), second player's role in the sequential Prisoner's Dilemma (PD) after the first player (2) cooperated and (3) defected, and (4) first player's role in the sequential Prisoner's Dilemma game. We find that the average weights in these four decision situations have the following order: (1)>(2)>(4)>(3). Moreover, the average weight is positive in (1) but negative in (2), (3), and (4). Our findings indicate the existence of strong negative and small positive reciprocity for the average subject, but there is also high interpersonal variation in the weights in these four nodes. We conclude that the PD frame makes subjects more competitive than the DG frame. Using hierarchical Bayesian modeling, we simultaneously analyze beliefs of subjects about others' utility weights in the same four decision situations. We compare several alternative theoretical models on beliefs, e.g., rational beliefs (Bayesian-Nash equilibrium) and a consensus model. Our results on beliefs strongly support the consensus effect and refute rational beliefs: there is a strong relationship between own preferences and beliefs and this relationship is relatively stable across the four decision situations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Simultaneous versus sequential pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic population analysis using an iterative two-stage Bayesian technique

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    Proost, Johannes H.; Schiere, Sjouke; Eleveld, Douglas J.; Wierda, J. Mark K. H.

    A method for simultaneous pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) population analysis using an Iterative Two-Stage Bayesian (ITSB) algorithm was developed. The method was evaluated using clinical data and Monte Carlo simulations. Data from a clinical study with rocuronium in nine anesthetized

  18. Reuse, Recycle, Reweigh: Combating Influenza through Efficient Sequential Bayesian Computation for Massive Data

    OpenAIRE

    Tom, Jennifer A.; Sinsheimer, Janet S.; Suchard, Marc A.

    2010-01-01

    Massive datasets in the gigabyte and terabyte range combined with the availability of increasingly sophisticated statistical tools yield analyses at the boundary of what is computationally feasible. Compromising in the face of this computational burden by partitioning the dataset into more tractable sizes results in stratified analyses, removed from the context that justified the initial data collection. In a Bayesian framework, these stratified analyses generate intermediate realizations, of...

  19. Exploiting neurovascular coupling: a Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo approach applied to simulated EEG fNIRS data

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    Croce, Pierpaolo; Zappasodi, Filippo; Merla, Arcangelo; Chiarelli, Antonio Maria

    2017-08-01

    Objective. Electrical and hemodynamic brain activity are linked through the neurovascular coupling process and they can be simultaneously measured through integration of electroencephalography (EEG) and functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). Thanks to the lack of electro-optical interference, the two procedures can be easily combined and, whereas EEG provides electrophysiological information, fNIRS can provide measurements of two hemodynamic variables, such as oxygenated and deoxygenated hemoglobin. A Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo approach (particle filter, PF) was applied to simulated recordings of electrical and neurovascular mediated hemodynamic activity, and the advantages of a unified framework were shown. Approach. Multiple neural activities and hemodynamic responses were simulated in the primary motor cortex of a subject brain. EEG and fNIRS recordings were obtained by means of forward models of volume conduction and light propagation through the head. A state space model of combined EEG and fNIRS data was built and its dynamic evolution was estimated through a Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo approach (PF). Main results. We showed the feasibility of the procedure and the improvements in both electrical and hemodynamic brain activity reconstruction when using the PF on combined EEG and fNIRS measurements. Significance. The investigated procedure allows one to combine the information provided by the two methodologies, and, by taking advantage of a physical model of the coupling between electrical and hemodynamic response, to obtain a better estimate of brain activity evolution. Despite the high computational demand, application of such an approach to in vivo recordings could fully exploit the advantages of this combined brain imaging technology.

  20. A non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian network with sequentially coupled interaction parameters for applications in systems and synthetic biology.

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    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    2012-07-12

    An important and challenging problem in systems biology is the inference of gene regulatory networks from short non-stationary time series of transcriptional profiles. A popular approach that has been widely applied to this end is based on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), although traditional homogeneous DBNs fail to model the non-stationarity and time-varying nature of the gene regulatory processes. Various authors have therefore recently proposed combining DBNs with multiple changepoint processes to obtain time varying dynamic Bayesian networks (TV-DBNs). However, TV-DBNs are not without problems. Gene expression time series are typically short, which leaves the model over-flexible, leading to over-fitting or inflated inference uncertainty. In the present paper, we introduce a Bayesian regularization scheme that addresses this difficulty. Our approach is based on the rationale that changes in gene regulatory processes appear gradually during an organism's life cycle or in response to a changing environment, and we have integrated this notion in the prior distribution of the TV-DBN parameters. We have extensively tested our regularized TV-DBN model on synthetic data, in which we have simulated short non-homogeneous time series produced from a system subject to gradual change. We have then applied our method to real-world gene expression time series, measured during the life cycle of Drosophila melanogaster, under artificially generated constant light condition in Arabidopsis thaliana, and from a synthetically designed strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae exposed to a changing environment.

  1. Bayesian change-point analyses in ecology

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    Brian Bekcage; Lawrence Joseph; Patrick Belisle; David B. Wolfson; William J. Platt

    2007-01-01

    Ecological and biological processes can change from one state to another once a threshold has been crossed in space or time. Threshold responses to incremental changes in underlying variables can characterize diverse processes from climate change to the desertification of arid lands from overgrazing.

  2. Sequential Change-Point Detection via Online Convex Optimization

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    Yang Cao

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Sequential change-point detection when the distribution parameters are unknown is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. When the post-change parameters are unknown, we consider a set of detection procedures based on sequential likelihood ratios with non-anticipating estimators constructed using online convex optimization algorithms such as online mirror descent, which provides a more versatile approach to tackling complex situations where recursive maximum likelihood estimators cannot be found. When the underlying distributions belong to a exponential family and the estimators satisfy the logarithm regret property, we show that this approach is nearly second-order asymptotically optimal. This means that the upper bound for the false alarm rate of the algorithm (measured by the average-run-length meets the lower bound asymptotically up to a log-log factor when the threshold tends to infinity. Our proof is achieved by making a connection between sequential change-point and online convex optimization and leveraging the logarithmic regret bound property of online mirror descent algorithm. Numerical and real data examples validate our theory.

  3. Reuse, Recycle, Reweigh: Combating Influenza through Efficient Sequential Bayesian Computation for Massive Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tom, Jennifer A; Sinsheimer, Janet S; Suchard, Marc A

    Massive datasets in the gigabyte and terabyte range combined with the availability of increasingly sophisticated statistical tools yield analyses at the boundary of what is computationally feasible. Compromising in the face of this computational burden by partitioning the dataset into more tractable sizes results in stratified analyses, removed from the context that justified the initial data collection. In a Bayesian framework, these stratified analyses generate intermediate realizations, often compared using point estimates that fail to account for the variability within and correlation between the distributions these realizations approximate. However, although the initial concession to stratify generally precludes the more sensible analysis using a single joint hierarchical model, we can circumvent this outcome and capitalize on the intermediate realizations by extending the dynamic iterative reweighting MCMC algorithm. In doing so, we reuse the available realizations by reweighting them with importance weights, recycling them into a now tractable joint hierarchical model. We apply this technique to intermediate realizations generated from stratified analyses of 687 influenza A genomes spanning 13 years allowing us to revisit hypotheses regarding the evolutionary history of influenza within a hierarchical statistical framework.

  4. Using a Simple Binomial Model to Assess Improvement in Predictive Capability: Sequential Bayesian Inference, Hypothesis Testing, and Power Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sigeti, David E. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Pelak, Robert A. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-09-11

    We present a Bayesian statistical methodology for identifying improvement in predictive simulations, including an analysis of the number of (presumably expensive) simulations that will need to be made in order to establish with a given level of confidence that an improvement has been observed. Our analysis assumes the ability to predict (or postdict) the same experiments with legacy and new simulation codes and uses a simple binomial model for the probability, {theta}, that, in an experiment chosen at random, the new code will provide a better prediction than the old. This model makes it possible to do statistical analysis with an absolute minimum of assumptions about the statistics of the quantities involved, at the price of discarding some potentially important information in the data. In particular, the analysis depends only on whether or not the new code predicts better than the old in any given experiment, and not on the magnitude of the improvement. We show how the posterior distribution for {theta} may be used, in a kind of Bayesian hypothesis testing, both to decide if an improvement has been observed and to quantify our confidence in that decision. We quantify the predictive probability that should be assigned, prior to taking any data, to the possibility of achieving a given level of confidence, as a function of sample size. We show how this predictive probability depends on the true value of {theta} and, in particular, how there will always be a region around {theta} = 1/2 where it is highly improbable that we will be able to identify an improvement in predictive capability, although the width of this region will shrink to zero as the sample size goes to infinity. We show how the posterior standard deviation may be used, as a kind of 'plan B metric' in the case that the analysis shows that {theta} is close to 1/2 and argue that such a plan B should generally be part of hypothesis testing. All the analysis presented in the paper is done with a

  5. Bayesian semiparametric modelling of contraceptive behavior in India via sequential logistic regressions

    OpenAIRE

    Rigon, Tommaso; Durante, Daniele; Torelli, Nicola

    2014-01-01

    Family planning has been characterized by highly different strategic programs in India, including method-specific contraceptive targets, coercive sterilization, and more recent target-free approaches. These major changes in family planning policies over time have motivated a considerable interest towards assessing the effectiveness of the different programs, while understanding which subsets of the population have not been properly addressed. Current studies consider specific aspects of the a...

  6. Sequential changes from minimal pancreatic inflammation to advanced alcoholic pancreatitis.

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    Noronha, M; Dreiling, D A; Bordalo, O

    1983-11-01

    A correlation of several clinical parameters and pancreatitis morphological alterations observed in chronic alcoholics with and without pancreatic is presented. Three groups of patients were studied: asymptomatic chronic alcoholics (24); non-alcoholic controls (10); and cases with advanced chronic pancreatitis (6). Clinical, biochemical and functional studies were performed. Morphological studies were made on surgical biopsy specimens in light and electron microscopy. The results of this study showed: 1) fat accumulates within pancreatic acinar cells in alcoholics drinking more than 80 g of ethanol per day; 2) ultrastructural changes found in acinar cells of the alcoholics are similar to those described for liver cells; 3) the alterations found in alcoholics without pancreatitis are also observed in those with advanced chronic pancreatitis. An attempt to correlate the sequential changes in the histopathology of alcoholic pancreatic disease with the clinical picture and secretory patterns was made. According to these observations, admitting the ultrastructural similarities between the liver and the pancreas and the recently demonstrated abnormalities of lipid metabolism in pancreatic cells in experimental animal research, the authors postulate a toxic-metabolic mechanism as a likely hypothesis for the pathogenesis of chronic alcoholic inflammation of the pancreas.

  7. Rational Irrationality: Modeling Climate Change Belief Polarization Using Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, John; Lewandowsky, Stephan

    2016-01-01

    Belief polarization is said to occur when two people respond to the same evidence by updating their beliefs in opposite directions. This response is considered to be "irrational" because it involves contrary updating, a form of belief updating that appears to violate normatively optimal responding, as for example dictated by Bayes' theorem. In light of much evidence that people are capable of normatively optimal behavior, belief polarization presents a puzzling exception. We show that Bayesian networks, or Bayes nets, can simulate rational belief updating. When fit to experimental data, Bayes nets can help identify the factors that contribute to polarization. We present a study into belief updating concerning the reality of climate change in response to information about the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW). The study used representative samples of Australian and U.S. Among Australians, consensus information partially neutralized the influence of worldview, with free-market supporters showing a greater increase in acceptance of human-caused global warming relative to free-market opponents. In contrast, while consensus information overall had a positive effect on perceived consensus among U.S. participants, there was a reduction in perceived consensus and acceptance of human-caused global warming for strong supporters of unregulated free markets. Fitting a Bayes net model to the data indicated that under a Bayesian framework, free-market support is a significant driver of beliefs about climate change and trust in climate scientists. Further, active distrust of climate scientists among a small number of U.S. conservatives drives contrary updating in response to consensus information among this particular group. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  8. A Non-Homogeneous Dynamic Bayesian Network with Sequentially Coupled Interaction Parameters for Applications in Systems and Synthetic Biology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    2012-01-01

    An important and challenging problem in systems biology is the inference of gene regulatory networks from short non-stationary time series of transcriptional profiles. A popular approach that has been widely applied to this end is based on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), although traditional

  9. Bayesian change-point analysis reveals developmental change in a classic theory of mind task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Sara T; Leslie, Alan M; Gallistel, C R; Hood, Bruce M

    2016-12-01

    Although learning and development reflect changes situated in an individual brain, most discussions of behavioral change are based on the evidence of group averages. Our reliance on group-averaged data creates a dilemma. On the one hand, we need to use traditional inferential statistics. On the other hand, group averages are highly ambiguous when we need to understand change in the individual; the average pattern of change may characterize all, some, or none of the individuals in the group. Here we present a new method for statistically characterizing developmental change in each individual child we study. Using false-belief tasks, fifty-two children in two cohorts were repeatedly tested for varying lengths of time between 3 and 5 years of age. Using a novel Bayesian change point analysis, we determined both the presence and-just as importantly-the absence of change in individual longitudinal cumulative records. Whenever the analysis supports a change conclusion, it identifies in that child's record the most likely point at which change occurred. Results show striking variability in patterns of change and stability across individual children. We then group the individuals by their various patterns of change or no change. The resulting patterns provide scarce support for sudden changes in competence and shed new light on the concepts of "passing" and "failing" in developmental studies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Unsupervised land cover change detection: meaningful sequential time series analysis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Salmon, BP

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available An automated land cover change detection method is proposed that uses coarse spatial resolution hyper-temporal earth observation satellite time series data. The study compared three different unsupervised clustering approaches that operate on short...

  11. Sequential changes on [sup 23]Na MRI after cerebral infarction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shimizu, T. (Cerebrovascular Div., Dept. of Medicine, National Cardiovascular Center, Osaka (Japan)); Naritomi, H. (Cerebrovascular Div., Dept. of Medicine, National Cardiovascular Center, Osaka (Japan)); Sawada, T. (Cerebrovascular Div., Dept. of Medicine, National Cardiovascular Center, Osaka (Japan))

    1993-01-01

    [sup 23]Na MRI changes from the acute to chronic phase were investigated in seven patients with cerebral infarcts. They showed no signal increase during the first 13 h after the stroke and revealed a definite signal increase thereafter. This reached a maximum 45-82 h after stroke and became sightly less marked in the subacute and chronic phases, probably as a result of disappearance of cerebral oedema. In the early acute phase of stroke, [sup 23]Na MRI appears to fail to demonstrate Na[sup +] increases in the ischaemic area, due presumably to the invisibility on MRI of intracellular [sup 23]Na in the intact brain. The increase more than 13 h after stroke, during which ischaemic cells are likely to die, is presumably because of increased visibility of intracellular [sup 23]Na in the dead cells. [sup 23]Na MRI is apparently insensitive to early ischaemic changes, but may be useful for assessing the cell viability in the ischaemic brain. (orig.)

  12. Sequential changes of sodium magnetic resonance images after cerebral hemorrhage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimizu, T.; Naritomi, H.; Kuriyama, Y.; Sawada, T.

    1992-01-01

    Four patients with cerebral hemorrhage were examined serially from the acute to chronic phase by 1 H magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), 23 Na MRI and computed tomography (CT). At 1-2 days after bleeding, the 23 Na image revealed no visible signal change in the area of hemorrhage, although CT and 1 H images clearly demonstrated the existence of a hematoma in the thalamus or putamen. At 4-7 days after the hemorrhage, the 23 Na images began to exhibit a small increase in signal intensity at the hematoma site, while at 2-3 weeks, a marked increase in 23 Na signal intensity was observed. These findings suggest that the hematoma consisted mainly of a corpuscular component, with a low Na + concentration, with little serum component. 23 Na MRI appears to provide important information for understanding the evoluation of cerebral hemorrhage and for estimating the viability of cells, although its value for diagnosis may not be great. (orig./GDG)

  13. Applying Bayesian modelling to assess climate change effects on biofuel production

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Peter, C

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available the resilience of a strategy that meets the new South African national biofuel production target can be assessed in relation to climate change. Cross-disciplinary consideration of variables may be enhanced through the sensitivity analysis enabled by Bayesian...

  14. Sequential planning of flood protection infrastructure under limited historic flood record and climate change uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

    2017-04-01

    Flood protection is often designed to safeguard people and property following regulations and standards, which specify a target design flood protection level, such as the 100-year flood level prescribed in Germany (DWA, 2011). In practice, the magnitude of such an event is only known within a range of uncertainty, which is caused by limited historic records and uncertain climate change impacts, among other factors (Hall & Solomatine, 2008). As more observations and improved climate projections become available in the future, the design flood estimate changes and the capacity of the flood protection may be deemed insufficient at a future point in time. This problem can be mitigated by the implementation of flexible flood protection systems (that can easily be adjusted in the future) and/or by adding an additional reserve to the flood protection, i.e. by applying a safety factor to the design. But how high should such a safety factor be? And how much should the decision maker be willing to pay to make the system flexible, i.e. what is the Value of Flexibility (Špačková & Straub, 2017)? We propose a decision model that identifies cost-optimal decisions on flood protection capacity in the face of uncertainty (Dittes et al. 2017). It considers sequential adjustments of the protection system during its lifetime, taking into account its flexibility. The proposed framework is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision analysis, using Decision Trees and Markov Decision Processes, and is fully quantitative. It can include a wide range of uncertainty components such as uncertainty associated with limited historic record or uncertain climate or socio-economic change. It is shown that since flexible systems are less costly to adjust when flood estimates are changing, they justify initially lower safety factors. Investigation on the Value of Flexibility (VoF) demonstrates that VoF depends on the type and degree of uncertainty, on the learning effect (i.e. kind and quality of

  15. Remarks on sequential designs in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seidenfeld, T.

    1982-01-01

    The special merits of sequential designs are reviewed in light of particular challenges that attend risk assessment for human population. The kinds of ''statistical inference'' are distinguished and the problem of design which is pursued is the clash between Neyman-Pearson and Bayesian programs of sequential design. The value of sequential designs is discussed and the Neyman-Pearson vs. Bayesian sequential designs are probed in particular. Finally, warnings with sequential designs are considered, especially in relation to utilitarianism

  16. The metabolic network of Clostridium acetobutylicum: Comparison of the approximate Bayesian computation via sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) and profile likelihood estimation (PLE) methods for determinability analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorn, Graeme J; King, John R

    2016-01-01

    The Gram-positive bacterium Clostridium acetobutylicum is an anaerobic endospore-forming species which produces acetone, butanol and ethanol via the acetone-butanol (AB) fermentation process, leading to biofuels including butanol. In previous work we looked to estimate the parameters in an ordinary differential equation model of the glucose metabolism network using data from pH-controlled continuous culture experiments. Here we combine two approaches, namely the approximate Bayesian computation via an existing sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) method (to compute credible intervals for the parameters), and the profile likelihood estimation (PLE) (to improve the calculation of confidence intervals for the same parameters), the parameters in both cases being derived from experimental data from forward shift experiments. We also apply the ABC-SMC method to investigate which of the models introduced previously (one non-sporulation and four sporulation models) have the greatest strength of evidence. We find that the joint approximate posterior distribution of the parameters determines the same parameters as previously, including all of the basal and increased enzyme production rates and enzyme reaction activity parameters, as well as the Michaelis-Menten kinetic parameters for glucose ingestion, while other parameters are not as well-determined, particularly those connected with the internal metabolites acetyl-CoA, acetoacetyl-CoA and butyryl-CoA. We also find that the approximate posterior is strongly non-Gaussian, indicating that our previous assumption of elliptical contours of the distribution is not valid, which has the effect of reducing the numbers of pairs of parameters that are (linearly) correlated with each other. Calculations of confidence intervals using the PLE method back this up. Finally, we find that all five of our models are equally likely, given the data available at present. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Measurement of sequential change of regional ventilation by new developed Kr-81m method in asthmatics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Takao; Narita, Hiroto; Ishida, Hirohide; Terashima, Yoichi; Hirasawa, Korenori; Mori, Yutaka; Kawakami, Kenji

    1991-01-01

    Fazio has reported the distribution of Kr-81m by the continuous inhalation method indicates distribution of ventilation. To estimate sequential ventilation change with the continuous Kr-81m inhalation method, it is necessary to keep the concentration of Kr-81m constant. However this is frequently ignored. Because of this, we have developed the new method to maintain constant concentration of Kr-81m and compared the reliability of this method to the conventional method. The results of phantom study showed that the concentration of Kr-81m is kept constant, and sequential change of ventilation can be estimated only by our new method. On application of this method in asthmatics, we have discovered the existence of the region where ventilation reduced by inhalation of a bronchodilator. (author)

  18. Sequential changes in histologic pattern and extracellular matrix deposition during the healing of chronic venous ulcers.

    OpenAIRE

    Herrick, S. E.; Sloan, P.; McGurk, M.; Freak, L.; McCollum, C. N.; Ferguson, M. W.

    1992-01-01

    As part of a major clinical trial, sequential biopsies were taken from the margins of venous leg ulcers during their healing. The changing patterns of tissue architecture and extracellular matrix synthesis during healing were documented histologically and immunocytochemically. Initial biopsies were similar in appearance: prominent fibrin cuffs, variable inflammation, hemosiderin, and red blood cell extravasation. So called "fibrin cuffs" were highly organized structures composed of laminin, f...

  19. Capturing changes in flood risk with Bayesian approaches for flood damage assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Kristin; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Müller, Meike; Sieg, Tobias; Laudan, Jonas; Kienzler, Sarah; Weise, Laura; Merz, Bruno; Scherbaum, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk is a function of hazard as well as of exposure and vulnerability. All three components are under change over space and time and have to be considered for reliable damage estimations and risk analyses, since this is the basis for an efficient, adaptable risk management. Hitherto, models for estimating flood damage are comparatively simple and cannot sufficiently account for changing conditions. The Bayesian network approach allows for a multivariate modeling of complex systems without relying on expert knowledge about physical constraints. In a Bayesian network each model component is considered to be a random variable. The way of interactions between those variables can be learned from observations or be defined by expert knowledge. Even a combination of both is possible. Moreover, the probabilistic framework captures uncertainties related to the prediction and provides a probability distribution for the damage instead of a point estimate. The graphical representation of Bayesian networks helps to study the change of probabilities for changing circumstances and may thus simplify the communication between scientists and public authorities. In the framework of the DFG-Research Training Group "NatRiskChange" we aim to develop Bayesian networks for flood damage and vulnerability assessments of residential buildings and companies under changing conditions. A Bayesian network learned from data, collected over the last 15 years in flooded regions in the Elbe and Danube catchments (Germany), reveals the impact of many variables like building characteristics, precaution and warning situation on flood damage to residential buildings. While the handling of incomplete and hybrid (discrete mixed with continuous) data are the most challenging issues in the study on residential buildings, a similar study, that focuses on the vulnerability of small to medium sized companies, bears new challenges. Relying on a much smaller data set for the determination of the model

  20. Sequential changes in ischemic edema following transient focal cerebral ischemia in rats; Magnetic resonance imaging study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nagahiro, Shinji; Goto, Satoshi; Kogo, Kasei; Sumi, Minako; Takahashi, Mutsumasa; Ushio, Yukitaka [Kumamoto Univ. (Japan). School of Medicine

    1994-07-01

    Sequential and regional changes in ischemic edema following various durations of focal cerebral ischemia were studied by magnetic resonance (MR) imaging in a rat unilateral intraluminal middle cerebral artery occlusion model. Occlusion was performed from 5 minutes to 5 hours. T[sub 2]-weighted images were obtained chronologically 6 hours after onset of ischemia, on day 1 and day 7. An immunohistochemical study using antibodies to calcineurin and glial fibrillary acidic protein was performed to observe histological changes in the ischemic brain. The T[sub 2] high-signal-intensity areas representing ischemic edema were observed in the lateral striatum and/or the cerebral cortex by day 1 in all rats with 1- to 5-hour ischemia, and the areas were larger and detected earlier with longer durations of ischemia. In three of six rats with 15-minute ischemia and five of six rats with 30-minute ischemia, the T[sub 2] high-signal-intensity areas appeared transiently on day 1 in the dorsolateral striatum where loss of neurons expressing calcineurin immunoreactivity and associated gliosis were found. MR imaging in animal models of reversible focal ischemia can achieve sequential and noninvasive evaluation of dynamic regional changes in ischemic edema. (author).

  1. Sequential change in MRI in two cases with small brainstem infarctions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masuda, Ryoichi; Fukuda, Osamu; Endoh, Shunro; Takaku, Akira; Suzuki, Takashi; Satoh, Shuji

    1987-01-01

    Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been found to be very useful for the diagnosis of a small brainstem infarction. However, most reported cases have shown the changes at only the chronic stage. In this report, sequential changes in the MRI in two cases with small brainstem infarctions are presented. In Case 1, a 67-year-old man with a pure sensory stroke on the right side, a small infarcted area was observed at the left medial side of the pontomedullary junction on MRI. In Case 2, a 62-year-old man with a pure motor hemiparesis of the left side, MRI revealed a small infarcted area on the right ventral of the middle pons. The initial changes were confirmed 5 days (Case 1) and 18 hours (Case 2) after the onset of the completed stroke. No abnormal findings could be found in the computed tomography in either case. (author)

  2. SEQUENTIAL PATHOLOGICAL CHANGES IN TURKEYS EXPERIMENTALLY INFECTED WITH CHICKEN POX VIRUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammd Mubarak and Muhammad Mahmoud

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available A total of 25, 4-weeks old, turkey poults were used in the present study. Birds were inoculated by chicken pox virus at the dose of 3 x l07.6/ml. Skin biopsy samples were taken sequentially from the same inoculated bird at 12 and 24 hours and at 2nd, 3rd, 4'h, 5th, 7th, l0th, 14th and 21 days post inoculation (PI. Tissue samples from upper respiratory and digestive tracts were also collected. Pox cytoplasmic inclusions (Bollinger bodies were detected between 4 and 7 days PI in epidermal the cell as well as in the follicular and sinus epithelium. Proliferative and necrobiotic epithelial changes were observed. Thereafter, pox inclusions disappeared with the appearance of vesicular, pustular and ulcerative lesions. This was accompanied by the gradual development of granulation tissue and finally scar tissue formed. Ultrastructure of the inclusion bodies and fine changes of the affected epidermal cell were illustrated.. It was concluded that the inoculated chicken pox virus is highly pathogenic for turkeys. Taking sequential biopsy samples from the same inoculated bird was found to yield more accurate follow up of the pox skin lesions.

  3. Sequential changes of magnetic resonance images of intracavernous giant aneurysm following carotid ligation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinjo, Toshihiko; Mukawa, Jiro; Takara, Eiichi; Mekaru, Susumu; Ishikawa, Yasunari

    1986-01-01

    A case of intracavernous giant aneurysm treated by combined carotid ligation and extracranial-intracranial vein-graft bypass is reported with special reference to the sequential changes of Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI). A 29-year-old female was admitted to our clinic with complaint of diplopia. She had no neurological deficit except for left abducens palsy. Left carotid angiogram revealed an intracavernous giant aneurysm, and vertebral angiogram revealed a fenestration at right and an aneurysm-like buldging at left vertebral artery. Gradual carotid occlusion after extracranial-intracranial bypass via grafted saphnous vein was successfully performed without any neurological complications. Sequential changes of MRI were as follows: The aneurysm was shown by absent intensity both in spin echo (SE) and inversion recovery (IR) methods before the treatment. It became isointensity in SE and two-tone intensity, iso at the center and high at the margin, in IR 15 days after, and, furtheremore, became slight high intensity in SE but decreased in two-tone intensity, low at the center and high at the margin, in IR 37 days after complete carotid occlusion. Coronal view was usefull to understand anatomical relationship. In conclusion, MRI, especially coronal IR method is of more diagnostic value than X-ray CT to follow the thrombosis of intracavernous aneurysm. (author)

  4. Right anterior cerebellum BOLD responses reflect age related changes in Simon task sequential effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aisenberg, D; Sapir, A; Close, A; Henik, A; d'Avossa, G

    2018-01-31

    Participants are slower to report a feature, such as color, when the target appears on the side opposite the instructed response, than when the target appears on the same side. This finding suggests that target location, even when task-irrelevant, interferes with response selection. This effect is magnified in older adults. Lengthening the inter-trial interval, however, suffices to normalize the congruency effect in older adults, by re-establishing young-like sequential effects (Aisenberg et al., 2014). We examined the neurological correlates of age related changes by comparing BOLD signals in young and old participants performing a visual version of the Simon task. Participants reported the color of a peripheral target, by a left or right-hand keypress. Generally, BOLD responses were greater following incongruent than congruent targets. Also, they were delayed and of smaller amplitude in old than young participants. BOLD responses in visual and motor regions were also affected by the congruency of the previous target, suggesting that sequential effects may reflect remapping of stimulus location onto the hand used to make a response. Crucially, young participants showed larger BOLD responses in right anterior cerebellum to incongruent targets, when the previous target was congruent, but smaller BOLD responses to incongruent targets when the previous target was incongruent. Old participants, however, showed larger BOLD responses to congruent than incongruent targets, irrespective of the previous target congruency. We conclude that aging may interfere with the trial by trial updating of the mapping between the task-irrelevant target location and response, which takes place during the inter-trial interval in the cerebellum and underlays sequential effects in a Simon task. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Sequential changes in bone marrow architecture during continuous low dose gamma irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seed, T.M.; Chubb, G.T.; Tolle, D.V.

    1981-01-01

    Beagles continuously exposed to low daily doses (10 R) of whole-body 60 Co ν-radiation are prone to develop either early occurring aplasstic anemia or late occurring myeloproliferative disorders. In this study, we have examined by a combination of light microscopy and scanning and transmission electron microscopy the sequential changes in the morphology of biopsied rib bone marrow of continuously irradiated dogs that developed either aplastic anemia, myelofibrosis, or myelogenous leukemia. Characteristic modifications of key elements of marrow architecture have been observed during preclinical and clinical phases of these hemopathological conditions. These architectural changes during preclinical phases appear to be related to the pathological progression to each of the radiation-induced hemopathological end points

  6. Comparative efficacy of simultaneous versus sequential multiple health behavior change interventions among adults: A systematic review of randomised trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Erica; Freund, Megan; Booth, Angela; Duncan, Mitch J; Johnson, Natalie; Short, Camille E; Wolfenden, Luke; Stacey, Fiona G; Kay-Lambkin, Frances; Vandelanotte, Corneel

    2016-08-01

    Growing evidence points to the benefits of addressing multiple health behaviors rather than single behaviors. This review evaluates the relative effectiveness of simultaneous and sequentially delivered multiple health behavior change (MHBC) interventions. Secondary aims were to identify: a) the most effective spacing of sequentially delivered components; b) differences in efficacy of MHBC interventions for adoption/cessation behaviors and lifestyle/addictive behaviors, and; c) differences in trial retention between simultaneously and sequentially delivered interventions. MHBC intervention trials published up to October 2015 were identified through a systematic search. Eligible trials were randomised controlled trials that directly compared simultaneous and sequential delivery of a MHBC intervention. A narrative synthesis was undertaken. Six trials met the inclusion criteria and across these trials the behaviors targeted were smoking, diet, physical activity, and alcohol consumption. Three trials reported a difference in intervention effect between a sequential and simultaneous approach in at least one behavioral outcome. Of these, two trials favoured a sequential approach on smoking. One trial favoured a simultaneous approach on fat intake. There was no difference in retention between sequential and simultaneous approaches. There is limited evidence regarding the relative effectiveness of sequential and simultaneous approaches. Given only three of the six trials observed a difference in intervention effectiveness for one health behavior outcome, and the relatively consistent finding that the sequential and simultaneous approaches were more effective than a usual/minimal care control condition, it appears that both approaches should be considered equally efficacious. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42015027876. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Changing approaches of prosecutors towards juvenile repeated sex-offenders: A Bayesian evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar; Sinha, Debajyoti; Lipsitz, Stuart; Letourneau, Elizabeth

    2010-06-01

    Existing state-wide data bases on prosecutors' decisions about juvenile offenders are important, yet often un-explored resources for understanding changes in patterns of judicial decisions over time. We investigate the extent and nature of change in judicial behavior towards juveniles following the enactment of a new set of mandatory registration policies between 1992 and 1996 via analyzing the data on prosecutors' decisions of moving forward for youths repeatedly charged with sexual violence in South Carolina. We use a novel extension of random effects logistic regression model for longitudinal binary data via incorporating an unknown change-point year. For convenient physical interpretation, our models allow the proportional odds interpretation of effects of the explanatory variables and the change-point year with and without conditioning on the youth-specific random effects. As a consequence, the effects of the unknown change-point year and other factors can be interpreted as changes in both within youth and population averaged odds of moving forward. Using a Bayesian paradigm, we consider various prior opinions about the unknown year of the change in the pattern of prosecutors' decision. Based on the available data, we make posteriori conclusions about whether a change-point has occurred between 1992 and 1996 (inclusive), evaluate the degree of confidence about the year of change-point, estimate the magnitude of the effects of the change-point and other factors, and investigate other provocative questions about patterns of prosecutors' decisions over time.

  8. Radiation proctitis in the rat. Sequential changes and effects of anti-inflammatory agents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Northway, M.G.; Scobey, M.W.; Geisinger, K.R.

    1988-11-01

    Female Wistar rats were treated with single exposure irradiation to 2 cm of distal colon to cause radiation proctitis. All animals were evaluated by examination, colonoscopy and histologic evaluation for changes post-irradiation. Exposures of 10, 12.5, 15, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, 27.5 and 30 Gy caused dose-related clinical and histologic changes peaking at 7 to 15 days post-exposure. Rats treated with 20 Gy were colonoscoped and biopsied daily and showed sequential post-irradiation endoscopic changes ranging from mucosal edema and mild inflammatory changes to erosion and ulcers. Histologically, crypt abscess and mural wall necrosis similar to changes found in the human rectum after radiotherapy were noted. Treatment with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory agents, (aspirin, indomethacin, piroxicam), misoprostol (a prostaglandin E1 analogue), or sucralfate (an anti-ulcer agent) did not ameliorate nor exacerbate radiation proctitis in rats exposed to 22.5 Gy. We conclude from these data that the female Wistar rat is a good model for studying radiation proctitis because endoscopic, histologic, and clinical changes seen post-exposure closely resemble those found in man.

  9. Radiation proctitis in the rat. Sequential changes and effects of anti-inflammatory agents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Northway, M.G.; Scobey, M.W.; Geisinger, K.R.

    1988-01-01

    Female Wistar rats were treated with single exposure irradiation to 2 cm of distal colon to cause radiation proctitis. All animals were evaluated by examination, colonoscopy and histologic evaluation for changes post-irradiation. Exposures of 10, 12.5, 15, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, 27.5 and 30 Gy caused dose-related clinical and histologic changes peaking at 7 to 15 days post-exposure. Rats treated with 20 Gy were colonoscoped and biopsied daily and showed sequential post-irradiation endoscopic changes ranging from mucosal edema and mild inflammatory changes to erosion and ulcers. Histologically, crypt abscess and mural wall necrosis similar to changes found in the human rectum after radiotherapy were noted. Treatment with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory agents, (aspirin, indomethacin, piroxicam), misoprostol (a prostaglandin E1 analogue), or sucralfate (an anti-ulcer agent) did not ameliorate nor exacerbate radiation proctitis in rats exposed to 22.5 Gy. We conclude from these data that the female Wistar rat is a good model for studying radiation proctitis because endoscopic, histologic, and clinical changes seen post-exposure closely resemble those found in man

  10. Human values and beliefs and concern about climate change: a Bayesian longitudinal analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prati, Gabriele; Pietrantoni, Luca; Albanesi, Cinzia

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of human values on beliefs and concern about climate change using a longitudinal design and Bayesian analysis. A sample of 298 undergraduate/master students filled out the same questionnaire on two occasions at an interval of 2 months. The questionnaire included measures of beliefs and concern about climate change (i.e., perceived consequences, risk perception, and skepticism) and human values (i.e., the Portrait Values Questionnaire). After controlling for gender and the respective baseline score, universalism at Time 1 was associated with higher levels of perceived consequences of climate change and lower levels of climate change skepticism. Self-direction at Time 1 predicted Time 2 climate change risk perception and perceived consequences of climate change. Hedonism at Time 1 was associated with Time 2 climate change risk perception. The other human values at Time 1 were not associated with any of the measures of beliefs and concern about climate change at Time 2. The results of this study suggest that a focus on universalism and self-direction values seems to be a more successful approach to stimulate public engagement with climate change than a focus on other human values.

  11. Modelling sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for radioactive waste disposal. Project BIOCLIM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Texier, D.; Degnan, P.; Loutre, M.F.; Lemaitre, G.; Paillard, D.; Thorne, M.

    2000-01-01

    The BIOCLIM project (Modelling Sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for Radioactive Waste Disposal) is part of the EURATOM fifth European framework programme. The project was launched in October 2000 for a three-year period. It is coordinated by ANDRA, the French national radioactive waste management agency. The project brings together a number of European radioactive waste management organisations that have national responsibilities for the safe disposal of radioactive wastes, and several highly experienced climate research teams. Waste management organisations involved are: NIREX (UK), GRS (Germany), ENRESA (Spain), NRI (Czech Republic) and ANDRA (France). Climate research teams involved are: LSCE (CEA/CNRS, France), CIEMAT (Spain), UPMETSIMM (Spain), UCL/ASTR (Belgium) and CRU (UEA, UK). The Environmental Agency for England and Wales provides a regulatory perspective. The consulting company Enviros Consulting (UK) assists ANDRA by contributing to both the administrative and scientific aspects of the project. This paper describes the project and progress to date. (authors)

  12. Adaptive Replanning to Account for Lumpectomy Cavity Change in Sequential Boost After Whole-Breast Irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Xiaojian [Department of Radiation Oncology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin (United States); Qiao, Qiao [Department of Radiation Oncology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin (United States); Department of Radiotherapy, First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang (China); DeVries, Anthony [Department of Radiation Oncology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin (United States); Li, Wenhui [Department of Radiation Oncology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin (United States); Department of Radiotherapy, Yunnan Tumor Hospital, Kunming (China); Currey, Adam; Kelly, Tracy; Bergom, Carmen; Wilson, J. Frank [Department of Radiation Oncology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin (United States); Li, X. Allen, E-mail: ali@mcw.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin (United States)

    2014-12-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the efficiency of standard image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT) to account for lumpectomy cavity (LC) variation during whole-breast irradiation (WBI) and propose an adaptive strategy to improve dosimetry if IGRT fails to address the interfraction LC variations. Methods and Materials: Daily diagnostic-quality CT data acquired during IGRT in the boost stage using an in-room CT for 19 breast cancer patients treated with sequential boost after WBI in the prone position were retrospectively analyzed. Contours of the LC, treated breast, ipsilateral lung, and heart were generated by populating contours from planning CTs to boost fraction CTs using an auto-segmentation tool with manual editing. Three plans were generated on each fraction CT: (1) a repositioning plan by applying the original boost plan with the shift determined by IGRT; (2) an adaptive plan by modifying the original plan according to a fraction CT; and (3) a reoptimization plan by a full-scale optimization. Results: Significant variations were observed in LC. The change in LC volume at the first boost fraction ranged from a 70% decrease to a 50% increase of that on the planning CT. The adaptive and reoptimization plans were comparable. Compared with the repositioning plans, the adaptive plans led to an improvement in target coverage for an increased LC case (1 of 19, 7.5% increase in planning target volume evaluation volume V{sub 95%}), and breast tissue sparing for an LC decrease larger than 35% (3 of 19, 7.5% decrease in breast evaluation volume V{sub 50%}; P=.008). Conclusion: Significant changes in LC shape and volume at the time of boost that deviate from the original plan for WBI with sequential boost can be addressed by adaptive replanning at the first boost fraction.

  13. Sequential changes in bone marrow architecture during continuous low dose gamma irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seed, T.M.; Chubb, G.T.; Tolle, D.V.

    1981-01-01

    Beagles continuously exposed to low daily doses (10 R) of whole-body 60Co gamma-radiation are prone to develop either early occurring aplastic anemia or late occurring myeloproliferative disorders (Seed et al., 1977). In this study, we have examined by a combination of light microscopy and scanning and transmission electron microscopy the sequential changes in the morphology of biopsied rib bone marrow of continuously irradiated dogs that developed either aplastic anemia, myelofibrosis, or myelogenous leukemia. Characteristic modification of key elements of marrow architecture have been observed during preclinical and clinical phases of these hemopathological conditions. The more prominent of these changes include the following. (i) In developing aplastic anemia: severe vascular sinus and parenchymal cord compression, and focally degenerate endosteal surfaces. (ii) In developing myelofibrosis: hyperplasia of endosteal and reticular stomal elements. (iii) In developing leukemia: hypertrophy of reticular and endothelial elements in the initial restructuring of the stromal matrix and the subsequent aberrant hemopoietic repopulation of the initially depleted stromal matrix. These architectural changes during preclinical phases appear to be related to the pathological progression to each of the radiation-induced hemopathological end points

  14. Sequential Imaging of Earth by Astronauts: 50 Years of Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Cynthia A.

    2009-01-01

    For nearly 50 years, astronauts have collected sequential imagery of the Earth. In fact, the collection of astronaut photography comprises one of the earliest sets of data (1961 to present) available to scientists to study the regional context of the Earth s surface and how it changes. While today s availability of global high resolution satellite imagery enables anyone with an internet connection to examine specific features on the Earth s surface with a regional context, historical satellite imagery adds another dimension (time) that provides researchers and students insight about the features and processes of a region. For example, one of the geographic areas with the longest length of record contained within the astronaut photography database is the lower Nile River. The database contains images that document the flooding of Lake Nasser (an analog to today s flooding behind China s Three Gorges Dam), the changing levels of Lake Nasser s water with multiyear cycles of flood and drought, the recent flooding and drying of the Toshka Lakes, as well as urban growth, changes in agriculture and coastal subsidence. The imagery database allows investigations using different time scales (hours to decades) and spatial scales (resolutions and fields of view) as variables. To continue the imagery collection, the astronauts on the International Space Station are trained to understand basic the Earth Sciences and look for and photograph major events such as tropical storms, landslides, and volcanic eruptions, and document landscapes undergoing change (e.g., coastal systems, cities, changing forest cover). We present examples of selected sequences of astronaut imagery that illustrate the interdependence of geological processes, climate cycles, human geography and development, and prompt additional questions about the underlying elements of change.

  15. Estimation of gross land-use change and its uncertainty using a Bayesian data assimilation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Peter; van Oijen, Marcel; Buys, Gwen; Tomlinson, Sam

    2018-03-01

    We present a method for estimating land-use change using a Bayesian data assimilation approach. The approach provides a general framework for combining multiple disparate data sources with a simple model. This allows us to constrain estimates of gross land-use change with reliable national-scale census data, whilst retaining the detailed information available from several other sources. Eight different data sources, with three different data structures, were combined in our posterior estimate of land use and land-use change, and other data sources could easily be added in future. The tendency for observations to underestimate gross land-use change is accounted for by allowing for a skewed distribution in the likelihood function. The data structure produced has high temporal and spatial resolution, and is appropriate for dynamic process-based modelling. Uncertainty is propagated appropriately into the output, so we have a full posterior distribution of output and parameters. The data are available in the widely used netCDF file format from http://eidc.ceh.ac.uk/.

  16. Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2017-11-01

    The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Temporal and spatial variabilities of Antarctic ice mass changes inferred by GRACE in a Bayesian framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L.; Davis, J. L.; Tamisiea, M. E.

    2017-12-01

    The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) holds about 60% of all fresh water on the Earth, an amount equivalent to about 58 m of sea-level rise. Observation of AIS mass change is thus essential in determining and predicting its contribution to sea level. While the ice mass loss estimates for West Antarctica (WA) and the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) are in good agreement, what the mass balance over East Antarctica (EA) is, and whether or not it compensates for the mass loss is under debate. Besides the different error sources and sensitivities of different measurement types, complex spatial and temporal variabilities would be another factor complicating the accurate estimation of the AIS mass balance. Therefore, a model that allows for variabilities in both melting rate and seasonal signals would seem appropriate in the estimation of present-day AIS melting. We present a stochastic filter technique, which enables the Bayesian separation of the systematic stripe noise and mass signal in decade-length GRACE monthly gravity series, and allows the estimation of time-variable seasonal and inter-annual components in the signals. One of the primary advantages of this Bayesian method is that it yields statistically rigorous uncertainty estimates reflecting the inherent spatial resolution of the data. By applying the stochastic filter to the decade-long GRACE observations, we present the temporal variabilities of the AIS mass balance at basin scale, particularly over East Antarctica, and decipher the EA mass variations in the past decade, and their role in affecting overall AIS mass balance and sea level.

  18. Bayesian Nonparametric Estimation of Targeted Agent Effects on Biomarker Change to Predict Clinical Outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graziani, Rebecca; Guindani, Michele; Thall, Peter F.

    2015-01-01

    Summary The effect of a targeted agent on a cancer patient's clinical outcome putatively is mediated through the agent's effect on one or more early biological events. This is motivated by pre-clinical experiments with cells or animals that identify such events, represented by binary or quantitative biomarkers. When evaluating targeted agents in humans, central questions are whether the distribution of a targeted biomarker changes following treatment, the nature and magnitude of this change, and whether it is associated with clinical outcome. Major difficulties in estimating these effects are that a biomarker's distribution may be complex, vary substantially between patients, and have complicated relationships with clinical outcomes. We present a probabilistically coherent framework for modeling and estimation in this setting, including a hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for biomarkers that we use to define a functional profile of pre-versus-post treatment biomarker distribution change. The functional is similar to the receiver operating characteristic used in diagnostic testing. The hierarchical model yields clusters of individual patient biomarker profile functionals, and we use the profile as a covariate in a regression model for clinical outcome. The methodology is illustrated by analysis of a dataset from a clinical trial in prostate cancer using imatinib to target platelet-derived growth factor, with the clinical aim to improve progression-free survival time. PMID:25319212

  19. Using Bayesian networks to assess the vulnerability of Hawaiian terrestrial biota to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortini, L.; Jacobi, J.; Price, J.; Vorsino, A.; Paxton, E.; Amidon, F.; 'Ohukani'ohi'a Gon, S., III; Koob, G.; Brink, K.; Burgett, J.; Miller, S.

    2012-12-01

    As the effects of climate change on individual species become increasingly apparent, there is a clear need for effective adaptation planning to prevent an increase in species extinctions worldwide. Given the limited understanding of species responses to climate change, vulnerability assessments and species distribution models (SDMs) have been two common tools used to jump-start climate change adaptation efforts. However, although these two approaches generally serve the same purpose of understanding species future responses to climate change, they have rarely mixed. In collaboration with research and management partners from federal, state and non-profit organizations, we are conducting a climate change vulnerability assessment for hundreds of plant and forest bird species of the Main Hawaiian Islands. This assessment is the first to comprehensively consider the potential threats of climate change to a significant portion of Hawaii's fauna and flora (over one thousand species considered) and thus fills a critical gap defined by natural resource scientists and managers in the region. We have devised a flexible approach that effectively integrates species distribution models into a vulnerability assessment framework that can be easily updated with improved models and data. This tailors our assessment approach to the Pacific Island reality of often limited and fragmented information on species and large future climate uncertainties, This vulnerability assessment is based on a Bayesian network-based approach that integrates multiple landscape (e.g., topographic diversity, dispersal barriers), species trait (e.g., generation length, fecundity) and expert-knowledge based information (e.g., capacity to colonize restored habitat) relevant to long-term persistence of species under climate change. Our presentation will highlight some of the results from our assessment but will mainly focus on the utility of the flexible approach we have developed and its potential

  20. Changes of peritoneal transport parameters with time on dialysis: assessment with sequential peritoneal equilibration test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waniewski, Jacek; Antosiewicz, Stefan; Baczynski, Daniel; Poleszczuk, Jan; Pietribiasi, Mauro; Lindholm, Bengt; Wankowicz, Zofia

    2017-10-27

    Sequential peritoneal equilibration test (sPET) is based on the consecutive performance of the peritoneal equilibration test (PET, 4-hour, glucose 2.27%) and the mini-PET (1-hour, glucose 3.86%), and the estimation of peritoneal transport parameters with the 2-pore model. It enables the assessment of the functional transport barrier for fluid and small solutes. The objective of this study was to check whether the estimated model parameters can serve as better and earlier indicators of the changes in the peritoneal transport characteristics than directly measured transport indices that depend on several transport processes. 17 patients were examined using sPET twice with the interval of about 8 months (230 ± 60 days). There was no difference between the observational parameters measured in the 2 examinations. The indices for solute transport, but not net UF, were well correlated between the examinations. Among the estimated parameters, a significant decrease between the 2 examinations was found only for hydraulic permeability LpS, and osmotic conductance for glucose, whereas the other parameters remained unchanged. These fluid transport parameters did not correlate with D/P for creatinine, although the decrease in LpS values between the examinations was observed mostly for patients with low D/P for creatinine. We conclude that changes in fluid transport parameters, hydraulic permeability and osmotic conductance for glucose, as assessed by the pore model, may precede the changes in small solute transport. The systematic assessment of fluid transport status needs specific clinical and mathematical tools beside the standard PET tests.

  1. Sequential change of hemodynamic reserve in patients with major cerebral artery occlusion of severe stenosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hasegawa, Y.; Yamaguchi, T.; Tsuchiya, T. (National Cardiovascular Center, Osaka (Japan). Cerebrovascular Div.); Minematsu, K. (National Cardiovascular Center, Osaka (Japan). Research Inst.); Nishimura, T. (National Cardiovascular Inst., Osaka (Japan). Dept. of Diagnostic Radiology)

    1992-02-01

    To identify regional vasodilatory capacity and its sequential change, we evaluated prospectively a total of 78 acetazolamide tests in 51 patients with occlusion or greater than 75% stenosis of the carotid or middle cerebral arteries. The relative distribution of cerebral blood flow was determined by single photon emission computed tomography using N-isopropyl-p-({sup 123}I)-iodoamphetamine before and after intravenous injection of acetazolamide. Reduced vasodilatory capacity was demonstrated in 20 patients (38%), including 5 patients with hemodynamic transient ischemic attacks or infarction. Follow-up acetazolamide tests revealed asymptomatic progression of the arterial lesion (from stenosis to occlusion) in 1 patient and almost complete improvement of vasodilatory capacity in 5 patients, including 3 without surgical intervention. During an average follow-up period of 18.5 months, 4 patients died from cardiac causes or neoplasm; no neurovascular events occurred. Much larger numbers of patients with longer observation periods will be necessary to clarify the contribution of chronic hemodynamic failure to subsequent stroke. However, the present data indicate that the acetazolamide test is useful for assessing the course of high grade stenosis or occlusion of major cerebral arteries. (orig.).

  2. MR findings of degenerative changes of nucleus pulposus in lumbar spine: sequential changes after disc herniation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sang Joon [Choong-Ang Gil Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Cha, Yoo Mi; Hwang, Hee Young [College of Medicine, Dankook University, Chenoan (Korea, Republic of)

    1994-04-15

    To evaluate the relationship between MR changes of the nucleus pulposus and the time interval after traumatic disc herniation. T2-weighted MR images of 132 patients with back pain and/or sciatica were reviewed. The changes of signal intensity, central cleft and height of the nucleus pulposus were used as criteria of disc degeneration and they were graded as normal, mild, moderate and severe degree of degeneration. Putting these criteria together we provided integrated grade of degeneration of the nucleus pulposus(grade 0-3). To get the preliminary data for normal and age-related disc degeneration, we measured the disc height by age groups and disc levels and analyzed the relationship between the age of the patients and the signal intensity, cleft and height in normal disc levels of the 132 patients. In 68 patients of 88 levels disc herniation, we analyzed the relationship between symptom duration and the degree of degeneration. Among these 68 patients we selected 14 patients(16 levels) who were under 30 years of age and had history of recent trauma to minimize data distortion from age related degeneration and ambiguity of initiation point of degeneration. In this group we analyzed the relationship between the time period after traumatic disc herniation and the degree of degeneration. The age of the patient had close relationship with the grade of signal intensity, central cleft, and disc height and grade of degeneration of the nucleus pulposus in normal discs. In 88 levels of herniated discs, the duration of symptom and degree of degeneration showed moderate correlation. In 14 patients of disc herniation who were under 30 years old and had trauma history in recent 2 years, grade 1 disc degeneration occurred in average 3.7 months after trauma. Although it was difficult to proceed statistical analysis in the last group because of small patients number, the degree of degeneration of nucleus pulposus had close relationship with the duration after traumas or duration of

  3. MR findings of degenerative changes of nucleus pulposus in lumbar spine: sequential changes after disc herniation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sang Joon; Cha, Yoo Mi; Hwang, Hee Young

    1994-01-01

    To evaluate the relationship between MR changes of the nucleus pulposus and the time interval after traumatic disc herniation. T2-weighted MR images of 132 patients with back pain and/or sciatica were reviewed. The changes of signal intensity, central cleft and height of the nucleus pulposus were used as criteria of disc degeneration and they were graded as normal, mild, moderate and severe degree of degeneration. Putting these criteria together we provided integrated grade of degeneration of the nucleus pulposus(grade 0-3). To get the preliminary data for normal and age-related disc degeneration, we measured the disc height by age groups and disc levels and analyzed the relationship between the age of the patients and the signal intensity, cleft and height in normal disc levels of the 132 patients. In 68 patients of 88 levels disc herniation, we analyzed the relationship between symptom duration and the degree of degeneration. Among these 68 patients we selected 14 patients(16 levels) who were under 30 years of age and had history of recent trauma to minimize data distortion from age related degeneration and ambiguity of initiation point of degeneration. In this group we analyzed the relationship between the time period after traumatic disc herniation and the degree of degeneration. The age of the patient had close relationship with the grade of signal intensity, central cleft, and disc height and grade of degeneration of the nucleus pulposus in normal discs. In 88 levels of herniated discs, the duration of symptom and degree of degeneration showed moderate correlation. In 14 patients of disc herniation who were under 30 years old and had trauma history in recent 2 years, grade 1 disc degeneration occurred in average 3.7 months after trauma. Although it was difficult to proceed statistical analysis in the last group because of small patients number, the degree of degeneration of nucleus pulposus had close relationship with the duration after traumas or duration of

  4. Weight loss and body composition changes following three sequential cycles of ketogenic enteral nutrition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianfranco Cappello

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Ketogenic enteral nutrition (KEN is a modification of the protein sparing modified fast in which a protein solution is introduced with a continuous infusion through a nasogastric tube over 10-days cycles. The aim of the study was to perform a retrospective analysis of the safety, compliance, weight loss and body composition changes after 3 sequential 10-days cycles of KEN therapy. Materials and Methods: From a large number of patients who underwent KEN therapy in our department over a 5-year period, we selected 188 patients who participated in 3 KEN cycles with 10-13 days of break between them. Before and after the treatment cycles, body composition was analyzed by bioelectric impedance; a final assessment was made 10 days after the end of last cycle. During each rest period all the patients were on a low-carbohydrate, normal caloric diet. Results: Most patients (97% successfully tolerated the nasogastric treatment and lost an average of 14.4 kg of body weight, 10.6 kg of fat mass and 3.4 kg of body cell mass. Adverse effects were recorded as mild gastric hypersecretion (2% and constipation (5%. Patients continued to lose fat during the 10-day follow up period after the end of each KEN Cycle. This effect may be explained by abnormality of water distribution during the rapid weight loss inducing the observed change in fat mass. Conclusion: Ten-days KEN treatment cycles can induce rapid weight loss and reduction of fat mass in obese patients. Furthermore, preservation of lean mass can be achieved by infusing 1.9 g of protein/kg of BCM.

  5. Dose-Finding Study of Omeprazole on Gastric pH in Neonates with Gastro-Esophageal Acid Reflux Using a Bayesian Sequential Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentia Kaguelidou

    Full Text Available Proton pump inhibitors are frequently administered on clinical symptoms in neonates but benefit remains controversial. Clinical trials validating omeprazole dosage in neonates are limited. The objective of this trial was to determine the minimum effective dose (MED of omeprazole to treat pathological acid reflux in neonates using reflux index as surrogate marker.Double blind dose-finding trial with continual reassessment method of individual dose administration using a Bayesian approach, aiming to select drug dose as close as possible to the predefined target level of efficacy (with a credibility interval of 95%.Neonatal Intensive Care unit of the Robert Debré University Hospital in Paris, France.Neonates with a postmenstrual age ≥ 35 weeks and a pathologic 24-hour intra-esophageal pH monitoring defined by a reflux index ≥ 5% over 24 hours were considered for participation. Recruitment was stratified to 3 groups according to gestational age at birth.Five preselected doses of oral omeprazole from 1 to 3 mg/kg/day.Primary outcome, measured at 35 weeks postmenstrual age or more, was a reflux index <5% during the 24-h pH monitoring registered 72±24 hours after omeprazole initiation.Fifty-four neonates with a reflux index ranging from 5.06 to 27.7% were included. Median age was 37.5 days and median postmenstrual age was 36 weeks. In neonates born at less than 32 weeks of GA (n = 30, the MED was 2.5mg/kg/day with an estimated mean posterior probability of success of 97.7% (95% credibility interval: 90.3-99.7%. The MED was 1mg/kg/day for neonates born at more than 32 GA (n = 24.Omeprazole is extensively prescribed on clinical symptoms but efficacy is not demonstrated while safety concerns do exist. When treatment is required, the daily dose needs to be validated in preterm and term neonates. Optimal doses of omeprazole to increase gastric pH and decrease reflux index below 5% over 24 hours, determined using an adaptive Bayesian design differ

  6. Dose-Finding Study of Omeprazole on Gastric pH in Neonates with Gastro-Esophageal Acid Reflux Using a Bayesian Sequential Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaguelidou, Florentia; Alberti, Corinne; Biran, Valerie; Bourdon, Olivier; Farnoux, Caroline; Zohar, Sarah; Jacqz-Aigrain, Evelyne

    2016-01-01

    Proton pump inhibitors are frequently administered on clinical symptoms in neonates but benefit remains controversial. Clinical trials validating omeprazole dosage in neonates are limited. The objective of this trial was to determine the minimum effective dose (MED) of omeprazole to treat pathological acid reflux in neonates using reflux index as surrogate marker. Double blind dose-finding trial with continual reassessment method of individual dose administration using a Bayesian approach, aiming to select drug dose as close as possible to the predefined target level of efficacy (with a credibility interval of 95%). Neonatal Intensive Care unit of the Robert Debré University Hospital in Paris, France. Neonates with a postmenstrual age ≥ 35 weeks and a pathologic 24-hour intra-esophageal pH monitoring defined by a reflux index ≥ 5% over 24 hours were considered for participation. Recruitment was stratified to 3 groups according to gestational age at birth. Five preselected doses of oral omeprazole from 1 to 3 mg/kg/day. Primary outcome, measured at 35 weeks postmenstrual age or more, was a reflux index reflux index ranging from 5.06 to 27.7% were included. Median age was 37.5 days and median postmenstrual age was 36 weeks. In neonates born at less than 32 weeks of GA (n = 30), the MED was 2.5mg/kg/day with an estimated mean posterior probability of success of 97.7% (95% credibility interval: 90.3-99.7%). The MED was 1mg/kg/day for neonates born at more than 32 GA (n = 24). Omeprazole is extensively prescribed on clinical symptoms but efficacy is not demonstrated while safety concerns do exist. When treatment is required, the daily dose needs to be validated in preterm and term neonates. Optimal doses of omeprazole to increase gastric pH and decrease reflux index below 5% over 24 hours, determined using an adaptive Bayesian design differ among neonates. Both gestational and postnatal ages account for these differences but their differential impact on omeprazole

  7. Epigenetic change detection and pattern recognition via Bayesian hierarchical hidden Markov models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xinlei; Zang, Miao; Xiao, Guanghua

    2013-06-15

    Epigenetics is the study of changes to the genome that can switch genes on or off and determine which proteins are transcribed without altering the DNA sequence. Recently, epigenetic changes have been linked to the development and progression of disease such as psychiatric disorders. High-throughput epigenetic experiments have enabled researchers to measure genome-wide epigenetic profiles and yield data consisting of intensity ratios of immunoprecipitation versus reference samples. The intensity ratios can provide a view of genomic regions where protein binding occur under one experimental condition and further allow us to detect epigenetic alterations through comparison between two different conditions. However, such experiments can be expensive, with only a few replicates available. Moreover, epigenetic data are often spatially correlated with high noise levels. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model, combined with hidden Markov processes with four states for modeling spatial dependence, to detect genomic sites with epigenetic changes from two-sample experiments with paired internal control. One attractive feature of the proposed method is that the four states of the hidden Markov process have well-defined biological meanings and allow us to directly call the change patterns based on the corresponding posterior probabilities. In contrast, none of existing methods can offer this advantage. In addition, the proposed method offers great power in statistical inference by spatial smoothing (via hidden Markov modeling) and information pooling (via hierarchical modeling). Both simulation studies and real data analysis in a cocaine addiction study illustrate the reliability and success of this method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Bayesian Statistical Analysis of Historical and Late Holocene Rates of Sea-Level Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Niamh; Parnell, Andrew; Kemp, Andrew; Horton, Benjamin

    2014-05-01

    A fundamental concern associated with climate change is the rate at which sea levels are rising. Studies of past sea level (particularly beyond the instrumental data range) allow modern sea-level rise to be placed in a more complete context. Considering this, we perform a Bayesian statistical analysis on historical and late Holocene rates of sea-level change. The data that form the input to the statistical model are tide-gauge measurements and proxy reconstructions from cores of coastal sediment. The aims are to estimate rates of sea-level rise, to determine when modern rates of sea-level rise began and to observe how these rates have been changing over time. Many of the current methods for doing this use simple linear regression to estimate rates. This is often inappropriate as it is too rigid and it can ignore uncertainties that arise as part of the data collection exercise. This can lead to over confidence in the sea-level trends being characterized. The proposed Bayesian model places a Gaussian process prior on the rate process (i.e. the process that determines how rates of sea-level are changing over time). The likelihood of the observed data is the integral of this process. When dealing with proxy reconstructions, this is set in an errors-in-variables framework so as to take account of age uncertainty. It is also necessary, in this case, for the model to account for glacio-isostatic adjustment, which introduces a covariance between individual age and sea-level observations. This method provides a flexible fit and it allows for the direct estimation of the rate process with full consideration of all sources of uncertainty. Analysis of tide-gauge datasets and proxy reconstructions in this way means that changing rates of sea level can be estimated more comprehensively and accurately than previously possible. The model captures the continuous and dynamic evolution of sea-level change and results show that not only are modern sea levels rising but that the rates

  9. A Bayesian Belief Network framework to predict SOC stock change: the Veneto region (Italy) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dal Ferro, Nicola; Quinn, Claire Helen; Morari, Francesco

    2017-04-01

    A key challenge for soil scientists is predicting agricultural management scenarios that combine crop productions with high standards of environmental quality. In this context, reversing the soil organic carbon (SOC) decline in croplands is required for maintaining soil fertility and contributing to mitigate GHGs emissions. Bayesian belief networks (BBN) are probabilistic models able to accommodate uncertainty and variability in the predictions of the impacts of management and environmental changes. By linking multiple qualitative and quantitative variables in a cause-and-effect relationships, BBNs can be used as a decision support system at different spatial scales to find best management strategies in the agroecosystems. In this work we built a BBN to model SOC dynamics (0-30 cm layer) in the low-lying plain of Veneto region, north-eastern Italy, and define best practices leading to SOC accumulation and GHGs (CO2-equivalent) emissions reduction. Regional pedo-climatic, land use and management information were combined with experimental and modelled data on soil C dynamics as natural and anthropic key drivers affecting SOC stock change. Moreover, utility nodes were introduced to determine optimal decisions for mitigating GHGs emissions from croplands considering also three different IPCC climate scenarios. The network was finally validated with real field data in terms of SOC stock change. Results showed that the BBN was able to model real SOC stock changes, since validation slightly overestimated SOC reduction (+5%) at the expenses of its accumulation. At regional level, probability distributions showed 50% of SOC loss, while only 17% of accumulation. However, the greatest losses (34%) were associated with low reduction rates (100-500 kg C ha-1 y-1), followed by 33% of stabilized conditions (-100 < SOC < 100 kg ha-1 y-1). Land use management (especially tillage operations and soil cover) played a primary role to affect SOC stock change, while climate conditions

  10. Sequential Online Wellness Programming Is an Effective Strategy to Promote Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacNab, Lindsay R.; Francis, Sarah L.

    2015-01-01

    The growing number of United States youth and adults categorized as overweight or obese illustrates a need for research-based family wellness interventions. Sequential, online, Extension-delivered family wellness interventions offer a time- and cost-effective approach for both participants and Extension educators. The 6-week, online Healthy…

  11. [Sequential prescriptions: Arguments for a change of therapeutic patterns in treatment resistant depressions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allouche, G

    2016-02-01

    Among the therapeutic strategies in treatment of resistant depression, the use of sequential prescriptions is discussed here. A number of observations, initially quite isolated and few controlled studies, some large-scale, have been reported, which showed a definite therapeutic effect of certain requirements in sequential treatment of depression. The Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression Study (STAR*D) is up to now the largest clinical trial exploring treatment strategies in non psychotic resistant depression in real-life conditions with an algorithm of sequential decision. The main conclusions of this study are the following: after two unsuccessful attempts, the chance of remission decreases considerably. A 12-months follow-up showed that the higher the use of the processing steps were high, the more common the relapses were during this period. The pharmacological differences between psychotropic did not cause clinically significant difference. The positive effect of lithium in combination with antidepressants has been known since the work of De Montigny. Antidepressants allow readjustment of physiological sequence involving different monoaminergic systems together. Studies with tricyclic antidepressant-thyroid hormone T3: in depression, decreased norepinephrine at the synaptic receptors believed to cause hypersensitivity of these receptors. Thyroid hormones modulate the activity of adrenergic receptors. There would be a balance of activity between alpha and beta-adrenergic receptors, depending on the bioavailability of thyroid hormones. ECT may in some cases promote pharmacological response in case of previous resistance, or be effective in preventing relapse. Cognitive therapy and antidepressant medications likely have an effect on different types of depression. We can consider the interest of cognitive therapy in a sequential pattern after effective treatment with an antidepressant effect for treatment of residual symptoms, preventing relapses

  12. Bayesian Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  13. Optimal Sequential Rules for Computer-Based Instruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vos, Hans J.

    1998-01-01

    Formulates sequential rules for adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to learning needs in the context of computer-based instruction. Topics include Bayesian decision theory, threshold and linear-utility structure, psychometric model, optimal sequential number of test questions, and an empirical example of sequential instructional…

  14. High signal of the striatum in sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease: sequential change on T2-weighted MRI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uemura, A.; O'uchi, T.; Sakamoto, T.; Yashiro, N.

    2002-01-01

    The object of this study is to describe the sequential change of high signal of the striatum on T2-weighted MRI in sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD). Three cases of autopsy-proven sporadic CJD and a total of 18 serial MR images are included in this study. The degree of high signal of the striatum on T2-weighted MRI was evaluated by two neuroradiologists and divided into four grades by mutual agreement. Initial MRI of all three cases showed a slightly high signal of the bilateral striatum, and the conspicuity of the high signal became more prominent as the disease progressed. In each case the pathological change of striatum and globus pallidus was compared with the high signal on the last MR image. (orig.)

  15. High signal of the striatum in sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease: sequential change on T2-weighted MRI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uemura, A.; O' uchi, T.; Sakamoto, T.; Yashiro, N. [Department of Radiology, Kameda Medical Center, Kamogawa, Chiba (Japan)

    2002-04-01

    The object of this study is to describe the sequential change of high signal of the striatum on T2-weighted MRI in sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD). Three cases of autopsy-proven sporadic CJD and a total of 18 serial MR images are included in this study. The degree of high signal of the striatum on T2-weighted MRI was evaluated by two neuroradiologists and divided into four grades by mutual agreement. Initial MRI of all three cases showed a slightly high signal of the bilateral striatum, and the conspicuity of the high signal became more prominent as the disease progressed. In each case the pathological change of striatum and globus pallidus was compared with the high signal on the last MR image. (orig.)

  16. Sequential estimation of surface water mass changes from daily satellite gravimetry data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramillien, G. L.; Frappart, F.; Gratton, S.; Vasseur, X.

    2015-03-01

    We propose a recursive Kalman filtering approach to map regional spatio-temporal variations of terrestrial water mass over large continental areas, such as South America. Instead of correcting hydrology model outputs by the GRACE observations using a Kalman filter estimation strategy, regional 2-by-2 degree water mass solutions are constructed by integration of daily potential differences deduced from GRACE K-band range rate (KBRR) measurements. Recovery of regional water mass anomaly averages obtained by accumulation of information of daily noise-free simulated GRACE data shows that convergence is relatively fast and yields accurate solutions. In the case of cumulating real GRACE KBRR data contaminated by observational noise, the sequential method of step-by-step integration provides estimates of water mass variation for the period 2004-2011 by considering a set of suitable a priori error uncertainty parameters to stabilize the inversion. Spatial and temporal averages of the Kalman filter solutions over river basin surfaces are consistent with the ones computed using global monthly/10-day GRACE solutions from official providers CSR, GFZ and JPL. They are also highly correlated to in situ records of river discharges (70-95 %), especially for the Obidos station where the total outflow of the Amazon River is measured. The sparse daily coverage of the GRACE satellite tracks limits the time resolution of the regional Kalman filter solutions, and thus the detection of short-term hydrological events.

  17. Modelling the sequential geographical exploitation and potential collapse of marine fisheries through economic globalization, climate change and management alternatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorka Merino

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Global marine fisheries production has reached a maximum and may even be declining. Underlying this trend is a well-understood sequence of development, overexploitation, depletion and in some instances collapse of individual fish stocks, a pattern that can sequentially link geographically distant populations. Ineffective governance, economic considerations and climate impacts are often responsible for this sequence, although the relative contribution of each factor is contentious. In this paper we use a global bioeconomic model to explore the synergistic effects of climate variability, economic pressures and management measures in causing or avoiding this sequence. The model shows how a combination of climate-induced variability in the underlying fish population production, particular patterns of demand for fish products and inadequate management is capable of driving the world’s fisheries into development, overexploitation, collapse and recovery phases consistent with observations. Furthermore, it demonstrates how a sequential pattern of overexploitation can emerge as an endogenous property of the interaction between regional environmental fluctuations and a globalized trade system. This situation is avoidable through adaptive management measures that ensure the sustainability of regional production systems in the face of increasing global environmental change and markets. It is concluded that global management measures are needed to ensure that global food supply from marine products is optimized while protecting long-term ecosystem services across the world’s oceans.

  18. Sequential change in T2* values of cartilage, meniscus, and subchondral bone marrow in a rat model of knee osteoarthritis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping-Huei Tsai

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: There is an emerging interest in using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI T2* measurement for the evaluation of degenerative cartilage in osteoarthritis (OA. However, relatively few studies have addressed OA-related changes in adjacent knee structures. This study used MRI T2* measurement to investigate sequential changes in knee cartilage, meniscus, and subchondral bone marrow in a rat OA model induced by anterior cruciate ligament transection (ACLX. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eighteen male Sprague Dawley rats were randomly separated into three groups (n = 6 each group. Group 1 was the normal control group. Groups 2 and 3 received ACLX and sham-ACLX, respectively, of the right knee. T2* values were measured in the knee cartilage, the meniscus, and femoral subchondral bone marrow of all rats at 0, 4, 13, and 18 weeks after surgery. RESULTS: Cartilage T2* values were significantly higher at 4, 13, and 18 weeks postoperatively in rats of the ACLX group than in rats of the control and sham groups (p<0.001. In the ACLX group (compared to the sham and control groups, T2* values increased significantly first in the posterior horn of the medial meniscus at 4 weeks (p = 0.001, then in the anterior horn of the medial meniscus at 13 weeks (p<0.001, and began to increase significantly in the femoral subchondral bone marrow at 13 weeks (p = 0.043. CONCLUSION: Quantitative MR T2* measurements of OA-related tissues are feasible. Sequential change in T2* over time in cartilage, meniscus, and subchondral bone marrow were documented. This information could be potentially useful for in vivo monitoring of disease progression.

  19. Evaluating Google, Twitter, and Wikipedia as Tools for Influenza Surveillance Using Bayesian Change Point Analysis: A Comparative Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharpe, J Danielle; Hopkins, Richard S; Cook, Robert L; Striley, Catherine W

    2016-10-20

    Traditional influenza surveillance relies on influenza-like illness (ILI) syndrome that is reported by health care providers. It primarily captures individuals who seek medical care and misses those who do not. Recently, Web-based data sources have been studied for application to public health surveillance, as there is a growing number of people who search, post, and tweet about their illnesses before seeking medical care. Existing research has shown some promise of using data from Google, Twitter, and Wikipedia to complement traditional surveillance for ILI. However, past studies have evaluated these Web-based sources individually or dually without comparing all 3 of them, and it would be beneficial to know which of the Web-based sources performs best in order to be considered to complement traditional methods. The objective of this study is to comparatively analyze Google, Twitter, and Wikipedia by examining which best corresponds with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) ILI data. It was hypothesized that Wikipedia will best correspond with CDC ILI data as previous research found it to be least influenced by high media coverage in comparison with Google and Twitter. Publicly available, deidentified data were collected from the CDC, Google Flu Trends, HealthTweets, and Wikipedia for the 2012-2015 influenza seasons. Bayesian change point analysis was used to detect seasonal changes, or change points, in each of the data sources. Change points in Google, Twitter, and Wikipedia that occurred during the exact week, 1 preceding week, or 1 week after the CDC's change points were compared with the CDC data as the gold standard. All analyses were conducted using the R package "bcp" version 4.0.0 in RStudio version 0.99.484 (RStudio Inc). In addition, sensitivity and positive predictive values (PPV) were calculated for Google, Twitter, and Wikipedia. During the 2012-2015 influenza seasons, a high sensitivity of 92% was found for Google, whereas the PPV for

  20. Tests of the Bayesian evaluation of SPRT outcomes on Paks NPP data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulacsy, K.

    1997-01-01

    Self-powered neutron detector signals measured at the Paks Nuclear Power Plant, Hungary, are processed by a simple Binary Sequential Probability Ratio (SPRT) test and an SPRT combined with the Bayesian probability updating method. Since this latter is too robust against changes in the character of the signal, a new version of the Bayesian probability updating method is suggested and tested on the signals. The new method is found to detect signal failures faster and more effectively than the simple SPRT. (R.P.)

  1. Analyzing change in short-term longitudinal research using cohort-sequential designs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, E R

    1993-12-01

    This article illustrates a method for approximating longitudinal data analysis by combining information from different overlapping age groups to form a single developmental growth curve. Using this method, hypotheses about the form of growth, the extent of individual differences in growth, and factors that affect the rate and pattern of growth are investigated. The example used to illustrate this method examines the growth of externalizing behavior and of negativity in parent-child relationships during early adolescence using assessments from multiple methods and multiple informants. These 3 dimensions changed significantly during this period, with parental negativity increasing more rapidly after age 12. However, there were substantial individual differences in the pattern of change in these dimensions. Gender of child and type of family situation (nondivorced, divorced, and remarried) were investigated as possible factors affecting change.

  2. Further comments on the sequential probability ratio testing methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kulacsy, K. [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest (Hungary). Central Research Inst. for Physics

    1997-05-23

    The Bayesian method for belief updating proposed in Racz (1996) is examined. The interpretation of the belief function introduced therein is found, and the method is compared to the classical binary Sequential Probability Ratio Testing method (SPRT). (author).

  3. Comprehensive profiling of proteome changes upon sequential deletion of deubiquitylating enzymes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Jon W; Madsen, Christian Toft; Young, Clifford

    2012-01-01

    Deubiquitylating enzymes (DUBs) are a large group of proteases that regulate ubiquitin-dependent metabolic pathways by cleaving ubiquitin-protein bonds. Here we present a global study aimed at elucidating the effects DUBs have on protein abundance changes in eukaryotic cells. To this end we compare...... wild-type Saccharomyces cerevisiae to 20 DUB knock-out strains using quantitative proteomics to measure proteome-wide expression of isotope labeled proteins, and analyze the data in the context of known transcription-factor regulatory networks. Overall we find that protein abundances differ widely...... between individual deletion strains, demonstrating that removing just a single component from the complex ubiquitin system causes major changes in cellular protein expression. The outcome of our analysis confirms many of the known biological roles for characterized DUBs such as Ubp3p and Ubp8p, and we...

  4. North-South Climate Change Negotiations. A Sequential Game with Asymmetric Information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caparros, A.; Tazdait, T.; Pereau, J.C.

    2003-01-01

    This article determines the conditions under which the Southern countries should act together, or separately, while negotiating with the North about climate change policy and about the conditions for future Southern engagement. The paper models the international negotiations with complete and with asymmetric information in a dynamic framework. Results show that, depending on their characteristics, the different players can obtain benefits delaying the moment of the agreement

  5. Changing clinical patterns in rheumatoid arthritis management over two decades:Sequential observational studies

    OpenAIRE

    Mian, Aneela N; Ibrahim, Fowzia; Scott, Ian C; Bahadur, Sardar; Filkova, Maria; Pollard, Louise; Steer, Sophia; Kingsley, Gabrielle H; Scott, David L; Galloway, James

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treatment paradigms have shifted over the last two decades. There has been increasing emphasis on combination disease modifying anti-rheumatic drug (DMARD) therapy, newer biologic therapies have become available and there is a greater focus on achieving remission. We have evaluated the impact of treatment changes on disease activity scores for 28 joints (DAS28) and disability measured by the health assessment questionnaire scores (HAQ).METHODS: Four cross...

  6. Changing clinical patterns in rheumatoid arthritis management over two decades: sequential observational studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mian, Aneela N; Ibrahim, Fowzia; Scott, Ian C; Bahadur, Sardar; Filkova, Maria; Pollard, Louise; Steer, Sophia; Kingsley, Gabrielle H; Scott, David L; Galloway, James

    2016-01-27

    Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treatment paradigms have shifted over the last two decades. There has been increasing emphasis on combination disease modifying anti-rheumatic drug (DMARD) therapy, newer biologic therapies have become available and there is a greater focus on achieving remission. We have evaluated the impact of treatment changes on disease activity scores for 28 joints (DAS28) and disability measured by the health assessment questionnaire scores (HAQ). Four cross-sectional surveys between 1996 and 2014 in two adjacent secondary care rheumatology departments in London evaluated changes in drug therapy, DAS28 and its component parts and HAQ scores (in three surveys). Descriptive statistics used means and standard deviations (SD) or medians and interquartile ranges (IQR) to summarise changes. Spearman's correlations assessed relationships between assessments. 1324 patients were studied. Gender ratios, age and mean disease duration were similar across all cohorts. There were temporal increases in the use of any DMARDs (rising from 61% to 87% of patients from 1996-2014), combination DMARDs (1% to 41%) and biologic (0 to 32%). Mean DAS28 fell (5.2 to 3.7), active disease (DAS28 > 5.1) declined (50% to 18%) and DAS28 remission (DAS28 disability measured by HAQ. As a consequence the relationship between DAS28 and HAQ has become weaker over time. Although the reasons for this divergence between disease activity and disability are uncertain, focussing treatment entirely in suppressing synovitis may be insufficient.

  7. Bayesian biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Lesaffre, Emmanuel

    2012-01-01

    The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd

  8. Sequential computerized tomography changes and related final outcome in severe head injury patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobato, R.D.; Gomez, P.A.; Alday, R.

    1997-01-01

    The authors analyzed the serial computerized tomography (CT) findings in a large series of severely head injured patients in order to assess the variability in gross intracranial pathology through the acute posttraumatic period and determine the most common patterns of CT change. A second aim was to compare the prognostic significance of the different CT diagnostic categories used in the study (Traumatic Coma Data Bank CT pathological classification) when gleaned either from the initial (postadmission) or the control CT scans, and determine the extent to which having a second CT scan provides more prognostic information than only one scan. 92 patients (13.3 % of the total population) died soon after injury. Of the 587 who survived long enough to have at least one control CT scan 23.6 % developed new diffuse brain swelling, and 20.9 % new focal mass lesions most of which had to be evacuated. The relative risk for requiring a delayed operation as related to the diagnostic category established by using the initial CT scans was by decreasing order: diffuse injury IV (30.7 %), diffuse injury III (30.5 %), non evacuated mass (20 %), evacuated mass (20.2 %), diffuse injury II (12.1 %), and diffuse injury I (8.6 %). Overall, 51.2 % of the patients developed significant CT changes (for worse or better) occurring either spontaneously or following surgery, and their final outcomes were more closely related to the control than to the initial CT diagnoses. In fact, the final outcome was more accurately predicted by using the control CT scans (81.2 % of the cases) than by using the initial CT scans (71.5 % of the cases only). Since the majority of relevant CT changes developed within 48 hours after injury a pathological categorization made by using an early control CT scan seems to be most useful for prognostic purposes. Prognosis associated with the CT pathological categories used in the study was similar independently of the moment of the acute posttraumatic period at which

  9. Sequential change of cardiomyopathy of Duchenne muscular dystrophy by 201Tl myocardial SPECT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Seiji; Sugimoto, Seiichirou; Inoue, Kenjirou; Jinnouchi, Seishi; Hoshi, Hiroaki; Watanabe, Katsushi.

    1989-01-01

    201 Tl myocardial SPECT were performed to evaluate of cardiomyopathy in Duchenne type of progressive muscular dystrophy (DMD). Follow up SPECT images of the same patients were also obtained about 1 year after the first scan. Cases subjected to study were 10 DMD. At the first study the hypoperfusion area of the left ventricular muscle were observed in 6 cases (60%) out of 10. At the second study the hypoperfusion areas became wider and lower in 4 out of 6 cases (66.7%). The new hypoperfusion area which was not demonstrated at the first study was observed at the second study in one case of these cases. These results suggested that the positive rate of cardiomyopathy in DMD by 201 Tl myocardial SPECT was high, and 201 Tl myocardial SPECT is a useful examination to detect the change of myocardial damage in DMD. (author)

  10. Sequential change of cardiomyopathy of Duchenne muscular dystrophy by /sup 201/Tl myocardial SPECT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ono, Seiji; Sugimoto, Seiichirou; Inoue, Kenjirou; Jinnouchi, Seishi; Hoshi, Hiroaki; Watanabe, Katsushi.

    1989-03-01

    /sup 201/Tl myocardial SPECT were performed to evaluate of cardiomyopathy in Duchenne type of progressive muscular dystrophy (DMD). Follow up SPECT images of the same patients were also obtained about 1 year after the first scan. Cases subjected to study were 10 DMD. At the first study the hypoperfusion area of the left ventricular muscle were observed in 6 cases (60%) out of 10. At the second study the hypoperfusion areas became wider and lower in 4 out of 6 cases (66.7%). The new hypoperfusion area which was not demonstrated at the first study was observed at the second study in one case of these cases. These results suggested that the positive rate of cardiomyopathy in DMD by /sup 201/Tl myocardial SPECT was high, and /sup 201/Tl myocardial SPECT is a useful examination to detect the change of myocardial damage in DMD. (author).

  11. Bayesian Utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    ZHOU, Lin

    1996-01-01

    In this paper I consider social choices under uncertainty. I prove that any social choice rule that satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives, translation invariance, and weak anonymity is consistent with ex post Bayesian utilitarianism

  12. Long-term sequential changes of radiation proctitis and angiopathy in rats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doi, Hiroshi; Kamikonya, Norihiko; Takada, Yasuhiro

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to establish an experimental rat model for late radiation proctitis, and to examine the assessment strategy for late radiation proctitis. A total of 57 Wistar rats were used. Forty-five of the rats were exposed to selective rectal irradiation with a single fraction of 25 Gy. These rats were sacrificed at the 4th, 12th, 24th, and 37th week following irradiation. The remaining 12 rats comprised the control group without irradiation. The rectal mucosa of each rat was evaluated macroscopically and pathologically. The number of vessels in the rectal mucosa was counted microscopically. In addition, the vascular stenosis was evaluated. In the results, the degree of clinical and macroscopic findings decreased following acute proctitis and developed later. In the pathological examination, mucosal changes and microangiopathy were followed up, as well. The absolute number of vessels in the rectum was the greatest at the 12th week following irradiation and was the lowest in the control group. The severity of the microangiopathy was also well evaluated. To conclude, we established an animal experimental model of late radiation proctitis, and also established an assessment strategy to evaluate objectively the severity of late radiation proctitis with focusing on microangiopathy using an animal experimental model. This model can be used as an animal experimental model of radiation-induced microangiopathy. (author)

  13. Sequential change of BMIPP uptake with age in spontaneously hypertensive rat model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mochizuki, Takafumi; Tsukamoto, Eriko; Ono, Tomohide

    1997-01-01

    Changes in myocardial perfusion and metabolism are often associated with myocardial hypertrophy, but there are few reports describing the serial assessment of fatty acid metabolism in hypertrophic myocardium. The aim of this study is to assess fatty acid metabolism serially in hypertrophic myocardium in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR) with 125 I-BMIPP, a branched fatty acid analog. SHR and Wistar-Kyoto rats (WKY) as the control were divided into 4 groups (12, 15, 18 and 51 weeks after birth). The heart was extracted 10 minutes after intravenous injection of 125 I-BMIPP and 201 Tl at the same time. The accumulation of each radiotracer in the myocardium was counted with a well gamma counter. In addition, 125 I-BMIPP uptake was corrected by 201 Tl uptake (B/T). The heart weight/body weight ratio was significantly higher in SHR than that in WKY (p 125 I-BMIPP uptake tended to be significantly reduced in SHR (12 weeks; 2.373±0.212, 18 weeks; 1.380±0.047: mean±SE, p 125 I-BMIPP and 201 Tl. (author)

  14. Sequential magnetic resonance spectroscopic changes in a patient with nonketotic hyperglycinemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji Hun Shin

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Nonketotic hyperglycinemia (NKH is a rare inborn error of amino acid metabolism. A defect in the glycine cleavage enzyme system results in highly elevated concentrations of glycine in the plasma, urine, cerebrospinal fluid, and brain, resulting in glycine-induced encephalopathy and neuropathy. The prevalence of NKH in Korea is very low, and no reports of surviving patients are available, given the scarcity and poor prognosis of this disease. In the current study, we present a patient with NKH diagnosed on the basis of clinical features, biochemical profiles, and genetic analysis. Magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS allowed the measurement of absolute glycine concentrations in different parts of the brain that showed a significantly increased glycine peak, consolidating the diagnosis of NKH. In additional, serial MRS follow-up showed changes in the glycine/creatinine ratios in different parts of the brain. In conclusion, MRS is an effective, noninvasive diagnostic tool for NKH that can be used to distinguish this disease from other glycine metabolism disorders. It may also be useful for monitoring NKH treatment.

  15. The Bacterial Sequential Markov Coalescent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Maio, Nicola; Wilson, Daniel J

    2017-05-01

    Bacteria can exchange and acquire new genetic material from other organisms directly and via the environment. This process, known as bacterial recombination, has a strong impact on the evolution of bacteria, for example, leading to the spread of antibiotic resistance across clades and species, and to the avoidance of clonal interference. Recombination hinders phylogenetic and transmission inference because it creates patterns of substitutions (homoplasies) inconsistent with the hypothesis of a single evolutionary tree. Bacterial recombination is typically modeled as statistically akin to gene conversion in eukaryotes, i.e. , using the coalescent with gene conversion (CGC). However, this model can be very computationally demanding as it needs to account for the correlations of evolutionary histories of even distant loci. So, with the increasing popularity of whole genome sequencing, the need has emerged for a faster approach to model and simulate bacterial genome evolution. We present a new model that approximates the coalescent with gene conversion: the bacterial sequential Markov coalescent (BSMC). Our approach is based on a similar idea to the sequential Markov coalescent (SMC)-an approximation of the coalescent with crossover recombination. However, bacterial recombination poses hurdles to a sequential Markov approximation, as it leads to strong correlations and linkage disequilibrium across very distant sites in the genome. Our BSMC overcomes these difficulties, and shows a considerable reduction in computational demand compared to the exact CGC, and very similar patterns in simulated data. We implemented our BSMC model within new simulation software FastSimBac. In addition to the decreased computational demand compared to previous bacterial genome evolution simulators, FastSimBac provides more general options for evolutionary scenarios, allowing population structure with migration, speciation, population size changes, and recombination hotspots. FastSimBac is

  16. Spike-Based Bayesian-Hebbian Learning of Temporal Sequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tully, Philip J; Lindén, Henrik; Hennig, Matthias H

    2016-01-01

    Many cognitive and motor functions are enabled by the temporal representation and processing of stimuli, but it remains an open issue how neocortical microcircuits can reliably encode and replay such sequences of information. To better understand this, a modular attractor memory network is proposed...... in which meta-stable sequential attractor transitions are learned through changes to synaptic weights and intrinsic excitabilities via the spike-based Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN) learning rule. We find that the formation of distributed memories, embodied by increased periods...

  17. Bayesian signal processing classical, modern, and particle filtering methods

    CERN Document Server

    Candy, James V

    2016-01-01

    This book aims to give readers a unified Bayesian treatment starting from the basics (Baye's rule) to the more advanced (Monte Carlo sampling), evolving to the next-generation model-based techniques (sequential Monte Carlo sampling). This next edition incorporates a new chapter on "Sequential Bayesian Detection," a new section on "Ensemble Kalman Filters" as well as an expansion of Case Studies that detail Bayesian solutions for a variety of applications. These studies illustrate Bayesian approaches to real-world problems incorporating detailed particle filter designs, adaptive particle filters and sequential Bayesian detectors. In addition to these major developments a variety of sections are expanded to "fill-in-the gaps" of the first edition. Here metrics for particle filter (PF) designs with emphasis on classical "sanity testing" lead to ensemble techniques as a basic requirement for performance analysis. The expansion of information theory metrics and their application to PF designs is fully developed an...

  18. Bayesian Estimation of Source Parameters and Associated Coulomb Failure Stress Changes for the 2005 Fukuoka (Japan) Earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Dutta, Rishabh; Jonsson, Sigurjon; Wang, Teng; Vasyura-Bathke, Hannes

    2017-01-01

    solutions have been neglected, making it impossible to assess the reliability of the reported solutions. We use Bayesian inference to estimate the location, geometry and slip parameters of the fault and their uncertainties using Interferometric Synthetic

  19. Sequential Banking.

    OpenAIRE

    Bizer, David S; DeMarzo, Peter M

    1992-01-01

    The authors study environments in which agents may borrow sequentially from more than one leader. Although debt is prioritized, additional lending imposes an externality on prior debt because, with moral hazard, the probability of repayment of prior loans decreases. Equilibrium interest rates are higher than they would be if borrowers could commit to borrow from at most one bank. Even though the loan terms are less favorable than they would be under commitment, the indebtedness of borrowers i...

  20. Bayesian Estimation of Source Parameters and Associated Coulomb Failure Stress Changes for the 2005 Fukuoka (Japan) Earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Dutta, Rishabh

    2017-12-20

    Several researchers have studied the source parameters of the 2005 Fukuoka (northwestern Kyushu Island, Japan) earthquake (MW 6.6) using teleseismic, strong motion and geodetic data. However, in all previous studies, errors of the estimated fault solutions have been neglected, making it impossible to assess the reliability of the reported solutions. We use Bayesian inference to estimate the location, geometry and slip parameters of the fault and their uncertainties using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Global Positioning System (GPS) data. The offshore location of the earthquake makes the fault parameter estimation challenging, with geodetic data coverage mostly to the southeast of the earthquake. To constrain the fault parameters, we use a priori constraints on the magnitude of the earthquake and the location of the fault with respect to the aftershock distribution and find that the estimated fault slip ranges from 1.5 m to 2.5 m with decreasing probability. The marginal distributions of the source parameters show that the location of the western end of the fault is poorly constrained by the data whereas that of the eastern end, located closer to the shore, is better resolved. We propagate the uncertainties of the fault model and calculate the variability of Coulomb failure stress changes for the nearby Kego fault, located directly below Fukuoka city, showing that the mainshock increased stress on the fault and brought it closer to failure.

  1. Bayesian estimation of source parameters and associated Coulomb failure stress changes for the 2005 Fukuoka (Japan) Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutta, Rishabh; Jónsson, Sigurjón; Wang, Teng; Vasyura-Bathke, Hannes

    2018-04-01

    Several researchers have studied the source parameters of the 2005 Fukuoka (northwestern Kyushu Island, Japan) earthquake (Mw 6.6) using teleseismic, strong motion and geodetic data. However, in all previous studies, errors of the estimated fault solutions have been neglected, making it impossible to assess the reliability of the reported solutions. We use Bayesian inference to estimate the location, geometry and slip parameters of the fault and their uncertainties using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Positioning System data. The offshore location of the earthquake makes the fault parameter estimation challenging, with geodetic data coverage mostly to the southeast of the earthquake. To constrain the fault parameters, we use a priori constraints on the magnitude of the earthquake and the location of the fault with respect to the aftershock distribution and find that the estimated fault slip ranges from 1.5 to 2.5 m with decreasing probability. The marginal distributions of the source parameters show that the location of the western end of the fault is poorly constrained by the data whereas that of the eastern end, located closer to the shore, is better resolved. We propagate the uncertainties of the fault model and calculate the variability of Coulomb failure stress changes for the nearby Kego fault, located directly below Fukuoka city, showing that the main shock increased stress on the fault and brought it closer to failure.

  2. Response of hydrology to climate change in the southern Appalachian mountains using Bayesian inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei Wu; James S. Clark; James M. Vose

    2012-01-01

    Predicting long-term consequences of climate change on hydrologic processes has been limited due to the needs to accommodate the uncertainties in hydrological measurements for calibration, and to account for the uncertainties in the models that would ingest those calibrations and uncertainties in climate predictions as basis for hydrological predictions. We implemented...

  3. An experimental study of exogenous lipoid pneumonia : sequential changes in high-resolution CT and MR findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kyeong Ah; Kang, Eun Young; Kim, Dae Hyun; Park, Sang Woo; Choi, Jeong Cheol; Kim, Ae Ree; Kim, Han Kyum; Cha, In Ho

    1999-01-01

    To evaluate sequential changes in high-resolution CT(HRCT) and MR findings of exogenous lipoid pneumonia in rabbits and to compare the radiologic and histopathologic findings. A single endobronchial administration of shark liver oil(0.5 or 1 ml/kg of body weight) was given to 25 rabbits. HRCT scans were obtained immediately(n=17), at 1 day(n=14), 3 days(n=10), 1 week(n=15), 2 weeks(n=10), 4 weeks(n=9), 6 weeks(n=5), 8 weeks(n=6), 10 weeks(n=4), 12 weeks(n=2), 14 weeks(n=3), and 16 weeks(n=2) after administration. Changes in distribution, extent, and attenuation were assessed on HRCT scans. MR scans were obtained immediately(n=12), at 1 day(n=9), 3 days(n=9), 1 week(n=15), 2 weeks(n=9), 4 weeks(n=11), 6 weeks(n=5), 8 weeks(n=7), 10 weeks(n=3), 14 weeks(n=3), and at 16 weeks(n=2) after administration. Changes in distribution, extent, and signal intensity were assessed on MR scans. In 16 rabbits, CT and MR findings were compared with histopatholo-gic findings obtained in the same plane. HRCT findings included consolidation with air-bronchogram, ground-glass attenuation and fat attenuation within the lesion at earlier stages(immediate-2 weeks). The extent of lesions was greatest at 1 week, and was then seen to gradually decrease on follow-up CT scans. T1-weighted MR images(T1WI) showed high or intermediate signal intensity(SI) at earlier stages and intermediate SI at later stages, while T2-weighted MR images(T2WI) showed high SI at both earlier and later stages. Histopathologic correlation showed that ground-glass attenuation and consolidation on HRCT reflected intraalveolar lipid-laden macrophages, cuboidal metaplasia of alveolar epithelial cells, and alveolar septal widening with inflammatory cell infiltration. Maximal infiltration of oil in the lung correlated closely with the peak low-attenuation seen on CT scans and the high signal intensity seen on T1WI. Shark liver oil-induced exogenous lipoid pneumonia in rabbits is reliably diagnosed by HRCT and MR during

  4. Bayesian programming

    CERN Document Server

    Bessiere, Pierre; Ahuactzin, Juan Manuel; Mekhnacha, Kamel

    2013-01-01

    Probability as an Alternative to Boolean LogicWhile logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain DataEmphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean

  5. Bayesian Graphical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2016-01-01

    Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes...

  6. Sample size and classification error for Bayesian change-point models with unlabelled sub-groups and incomplete follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Simon R; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela; Matthews, Fiona E

    2018-05-01

    Many medical (and ecological) processes involve the change of shape, whereby one trajectory changes into another trajectory at a specific time point. There has been little investigation into the study design needed to investigate these models. We consider the class of fixed effect change-point models with an underlying shape comprised two joined linear segments, also known as broken-stick models. We extend this model to include two sub-groups with different trajectories at the change-point, a change and no change class, and also include a missingness model to account for individuals with incomplete follow-up. Through a simulation study, we consider the relationship of sample size to the estimates of the underlying shape, the existence of a change-point, and the classification-error of sub-group labels. We use a Bayesian framework to account for the missing labels, and the analysis of each simulation is performed using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Our simulation study is inspired by cognitive decline as measured by the Mini-Mental State Examination, where our extended model is appropriate due to the commonly observed mixture of individuals within studies who do or do not exhibit accelerated decline. We find that even for studies of modest size ( n = 500, with 50 individuals observed past the change-point) in the fixed effect setting, a change-point can be detected and reliably estimated across a range of observation-errors.

  7. Probabilistic forecasting and Bayesian data assimilation

    CERN Document Server

    Reich, Sebastian

    2015-01-01

    In this book the authors describe the principles and methods behind probabilistic forecasting and Bayesian data assimilation. Instead of focusing on particular application areas, the authors adopt a general dynamical systems approach, with a profusion of low-dimensional, discrete-time numerical examples designed to build intuition about the subject. Part I explains the mathematical framework of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty quantification. Part II is devoted to Bayesian filtering algorithms, from classical data assimilation algorithms such as the Kalman filter, variational techniques, and sequential Monte Carlo methods, through to more recent developments such as the ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble transform filters. The McKean approach to sequential filtering in combination with coupling of measures serves as a unifying mathematical framework throughout Part II. Assuming only some basic familiarity with probability, this book is an ideal introduction for graduate students in ap...

  8. Introduction to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2017-01-01

    There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...

  9. Bayesian analysis of magnetic island dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preuss, R.; Maraschek, M.; Zohm, H.; Dose, V.

    2003-01-01

    We examine a first order differential equation with respect to time used to describe magnetic islands in magnetically confined plasmas. The free parameters of this equation are obtained by employing Bayesian probability theory. Additionally, a typical Bayesian change point is solved in the process of obtaining the data

  10. Multilevel Monte Carlo in Approximate Bayesian Computation

    KAUST Repository

    Jasra, Ajay

    2017-02-13

    In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference. We introduce a method for numerically approximating ABC posteriors using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). A sequential Monte Carlo version of the approach is developed and it is shown under some assumptions that for a given level of mean square error, this method for ABC has a lower cost than i.i.d. sampling from the most accurate ABC approximation. Several numerical examples are given.

  11. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2010-01-01

    Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

  12. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2003-01-01

    As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.

  13. Multilevel sequential Monte Carlo samplers

    KAUST Repository

    Beskos, Alexandros; Jasra, Ajay; Law, Kody; Tempone, Raul; Zhou, Yan

    2016-01-01

    In this article we consider the approximation of expectations w.r.t. probability distributions associated to the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs); this scenario appears routinely in Bayesian inverse problems. In practice, one often has to solve the associated PDE numerically, using, for instance finite element methods which depend on the step-size level . hL. In addition, the expectation cannot be computed analytically and one often resorts to Monte Carlo methods. In the context of this problem, it is known that the introduction of the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method can reduce the amount of computational effort to estimate expectations, for a given level of error. This is achieved via a telescoping identity associated to a Monte Carlo approximation of a sequence of probability distributions with discretization levels . ∞>h0>h1⋯>hL. In many practical problems of interest, one cannot achieve an i.i.d. sampling of the associated sequence and a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) version of the MLMC method is introduced to deal with this problem. It is shown that under appropriate assumptions, the attractive property of a reduction of the amount of computational effort to estimate expectations, for a given level of error, can be maintained within the SMC context. That is, relative to exact sampling and Monte Carlo for the distribution at the finest level . hL. The approach is numerically illustrated on a Bayesian inverse problem. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.

  14. Multilevel sequential Monte Carlo samplers

    KAUST Repository

    Beskos, Alexandros

    2016-08-29

    In this article we consider the approximation of expectations w.r.t. probability distributions associated to the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs); this scenario appears routinely in Bayesian inverse problems. In practice, one often has to solve the associated PDE numerically, using, for instance finite element methods which depend on the step-size level . hL. In addition, the expectation cannot be computed analytically and one often resorts to Monte Carlo methods. In the context of this problem, it is known that the introduction of the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method can reduce the amount of computational effort to estimate expectations, for a given level of error. This is achieved via a telescoping identity associated to a Monte Carlo approximation of a sequence of probability distributions with discretization levels . ∞>h0>h1⋯>hL. In many practical problems of interest, one cannot achieve an i.i.d. sampling of the associated sequence and a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) version of the MLMC method is introduced to deal with this problem. It is shown that under appropriate assumptions, the attractive property of a reduction of the amount of computational effort to estimate expectations, for a given level of error, can be maintained within the SMC context. That is, relative to exact sampling and Monte Carlo for the distribution at the finest level . hL. The approach is numerically illustrated on a Bayesian inverse problem. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.

  15. The one-shot deviation principle for sequential rationality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Whitta-Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1996-01-01

    We present a decentralization result which is useful for practical and theoretical work with sequential equilibrium, perfect Bayesian equilibrium, and related equilibrium concepts for extensive form games. A weak consistency condition is sufficient to obtain an analogy to the well known One-Stage......-Stage-Deviation Principle for subgame perfect equilibrium...

  16. A bayesian approach for learning and tracking switching, non-stationary opponents

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Hernandez-Leal, P

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available of interactions. We propose using a Bayesian framework to address this problem. Bayesian policy reuse (BPR) has been empirically shown to be efficient at correctly detecting the best policy to use from a library in sequential decision tasks. In this paper we...

  17. Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

  18. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    This article proposes Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared to conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian mediation analysis, inference is straightforward and exact, which makes it appealing for studies with small samples. Third, the Bayesian approach is conceptua...

  19. Bayesian benefits with JASP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marsman, M.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2017-01-01

    We illustrate the Bayesian approach to data analysis using the newly developed statistical software program JASP. With JASP, researchers are able to take advantage of the benefits that the Bayesian framework has to offer in terms of parameter estimation and hypothesis testing. The Bayesian

  20. Bayesian evaluation of budgets for endemic disease control: An example using management changes to reduce milk somatic cell count early in the first lactation of Irish dairy cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archer, S C; Mc Coy, F; Wapenaar, W; Green, M J

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this research was to determine budgets for specific management interventions to control heifer mastitis in Irish dairy herds as an example of evidence synthesis and 1-step Bayesian micro-simulation in a veterinary context. Budgets were determined for different decision makers based on their willingness to pay. Reducing the prevalence of heifers with a high milk somatic cell count (SCC) early in the first lactation could be achieved through herd level management interventions for pre- and peri-partum heifers, however the cost effectiveness of these interventions is unknown. A synthesis of multiple sources of evidence, accounting for variability and uncertainty in the available data is invaluable to inform decision makers around likely economic outcomes of investing in disease control measures. One analytical approach to this is Bayesian micro-simulation, where the trajectory of different individuals undergoing specific interventions is simulated. The classic micro-simulation framework was extended to encompass synthesis of evidence from 2 separate statistical models and previous research, with the outcome for an individual cow or herd assessed in terms of changes in lifetime milk yield, disposal risk, and likely financial returns conditional on the interventions being simultaneously applied. The 3 interventions tested were storage of bedding inside, decreasing transition yard stocking density, and spreading of bedding evenly in the calving area. Budgets for the interventions were determined based on the minimum expected return on investment, and the probability of the desired outcome. Budgets for interventions to control heifer mastitis were highly dependent on the decision maker's willingness to pay, and hence minimum expected return on investment. Understanding the requirements of decision makers and their rational spending limits would be useful for the development of specific interventions for particular farms to control heifer mastitis, and other

  1. Radiation-induced brain damage in children; Histological analysis of sequential tissue changes in 34 autopsy cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oi, Shizuo; Kokunai, Takashi; Ijichi, Akihiro; Matsumoto, Satoshi [Kobe Univ. (Japan). School of Medicine; Raimondi, A J

    1990-01-01

    The nature and sequence of the radiation-induced changes in the brain were studied postmortem in 34 children with glioma, 22 of whom underwent central nervous system radiation therapy. Twenty received whole-brain or whole-neuroaxis radiation at a total mean dosage of 4063 cGy. Brain tissue alternations were analyzed histologically by means of various staining methods, including immunohistochemical techniques. The histological features of irradiated brains were compared with those of non-irradiated brains. Microscopic findings included demyelination (seven cases), focal necrosis (six cases), cortical atrophy (four cases), endothelial proliferation (four cases), and telangiectatic vascular proliferation with vascular thickening and oozing of a thick fluid (one case). Such findings were rare in non-irradiated patients. Demyelination was observed earliest in a patient who died 5 months after radiation therapy and was more common after 9 months. Focal necrosis was first observed 9 months post-irradiation but was more advanced and extensive after 1 year. Calcified foci were found only after 60 months. Various vascular changes such as vascular thickening and thrombosis suggested ischemic insult to the brain as a late effect of radiation injury. The results of this study suggest that the immature brain may be more sensitive to radiation than is the adult brain, and that the manifestations of radiation-induced injury depend on the time elapsed after irradiation. (author).

  2. The sequential development of type I and type II ostertagiasis in young cattle with special reference to biochemical and serological changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Entrocasso, C; McKellar, Q; Parkins, J J; Bairden, K; Armour, J; Kloosterman, A

    1986-08-01

    The sequential development of Type I and Type II ostertagiasis over a 2-year period in the same naturally infected cattle is described for the first time. Particular reference is made to biochemical and serological changes. Positive relationships were demonstrated between the clinical signs of both Type I and Type II disease, and marked increases in the levels of plasma pepsinogen, plasma gastrin and antibody titres to adult Ostertagia antigen. At necropsy, there were significant relationships between the combined total of adult and developing 5th stage larvae of Ostertagia spp. and the levels of both plasma pepsinogen and gastrin. By the end of the second grazing season the cattle had acquired an immunity to infection with Ostertagia spp. and had very low burdens of this parasite at necropsy. However some of these cattle maintained elevated plasma pepsinogen levels when under natural challenge by Ostertagia spp. larvae and the aetiology of these changes and the problems of diagnosis using this parameter are discussed. Similar trends of infection were observed for Cooperia oncophora, although resistance to the parasite developed more rapidly.

  3. Sequential alterations in catabolic and anabolic gene expression parallel pathological changes during progression of monoiodoacetate-induced arthritis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Nam

    Full Text Available Chronic inflammation is one of the major causes of cartilage destruction in osteoarthritis. Here, we systematically analyzed the changes in gene expression associated with the progression of cartilage destruction in monoiodoacetate-induced arthritis (MIA of the rat knee. Sprague Dawley female rats were given intra-articular injection of monoiodoacetate in the knee. The progression of MIA was monitored macroscopically, microscopically and by micro-computed tomography. Grade 1 damage was observed by day 5 post-monoiodoacetate injection, progressively increasing to Grade 2 by day 9, and to Grade 3-3.5 by day 21. Affymetrix GeneChip was utilized to analyze the transcriptome-wide changes in gene expression, and the expression of salient genes was confirmed by real-time-PCR. Functional networks generated by Ingenuity Pathways Analysis (IPA from the microarray data correlated the macroscopic/histologic findings with molecular interactions of genes/gene products. Temporal changes in gene expression during the progression of MIA were categorized into five major gene clusters. IPA revealed that Grade 1 damage was associated with upregulation of acute/innate inflammatory responsive genes (Cluster I and suppression of genes associated with musculoskeletal development and function (Cluster IV. Grade 2 damage was associated with upregulation of chronic inflammatory and immune trafficking genes (Cluster II and downregulation of genes associated with musculoskeletal disorders (Cluster IV. The Grade 3 to 3.5 cartilage damage was associated with chronic inflammatory and immune adaptation genes (Cluster III. These findings suggest that temporal regulation of discrete gene clusters involving inflammatory mediators, receptors, and proteases may control the progression of cartilage destruction. In this process, IL-1β, TNF-α, IL-15, IL-12, chemokines, and NF-κB act as central nodes of the inflammatory networks, regulating catabolic processes. Simultaneously

  4. Bayesian dynamic mediation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jing; Yuan, Ying

    2017-12-01

    Most existing methods for mediation analysis assume that mediation is a stationary, time-invariant process, which overlooks the inherently dynamic nature of many human psychological processes and behavioral activities. In this article, we consider mediation as a dynamic process that continuously changes over time. We propose Bayesian multilevel time-varying coefficient models to describe and estimate such dynamic mediation effects. By taking the nonparametric penalized spline approach, the proposed method is flexible and able to accommodate any shape of the relationship between time and mediation effects. Simulation studies show that the proposed method works well and faithfully reflects the true nature of the mediation process. By modeling mediation effect nonparametrically as a continuous function of time, our method provides a valuable tool to help researchers obtain a more complete understanding of the dynamic nature of the mediation process underlying psychological and behavioral phenomena. We also briefly discuss an alternative approach of using dynamic autoregressive mediation model to estimate the dynamic mediation effect. The computer code is provided to implement the proposed Bayesian dynamic mediation analysis. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Sequential pathological changes during malignant transformation of a craniopharyngioma: A case report and review of the literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negoto, Tetsuya; Sakata, Kiyohiko; Aoki, Takachika; Orito, Kimihiko; Nakashima, Shinji; Hirohata, Masaru; Sugita, Yasuo; Morioka, Motohiro

    2015-01-01

    Background: Malignant transformation of craniopharyngiomas is quite rare, and the etiology of transformation remains unclear. The prognosis of malignantly transformed craniopharyngiomas is very poor. Case Description: A 36-year-old male had five craniotomies, five transsphenoidal surgeries, and two radiation treatments until 31 years of age after diagnosis of craniopharyngioma at 12 years of age. All serial pathological findings indicated adamantinomatous craniopharyngioma including those of a surgery performed for tumor regrowth at 31 years of age. However, when the tumor recurred approximately 5 years later, the pathological findings showed squamous metaplasia. The patient received CyberKnife surgery, but the tumor rapidly regrew within 4 months. The tumor was resected with the cavernous sinus via a dual approach: Transcranial and transsphenoidal surgery with an extracranial-intracranial bypass using the radial artery. Pathologic examination of a surgical specimen showed that it consisted primarily of squamous cells; the lamina propria was collapsed, and the tumor cells had enlarged nuclei and clarification of the nucleolus. The tumor was ultimately diagnosed as malignant transformation of craniopharyngioma. After surgery, he received combination chemotherapy (docetaxel, cisplatin, and fluorouracil). The tumor has been well controlled for more than 12 months. Conclusion: Serial pathological changes of the craniopharyngioma and a review of the 20 cases reported in the literature suggest that radiation of the squamous epithelial cell component of the craniopharyngioma led to malignant transformation via squamous metaplasia. We recommend aggressive surgical removal of craniopharyngiomas and avoidance of radiotherapy if possible. PMID:25883842

  6. Climate change and the spread of vector-borne diseases: using approximate Bayesian computation to compare invasion scenarios for the bluetongue virus vector Culicoides imicola in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mardulyn, Patrick; Goffredo, Maria; Conte, Annamaria; Hendrickx, Guy; Meiswinkel, Rudolf; Balenghien, Thomas; Sghaier, Soufien; Lohr, Youssef; Gilbert, Marius

    2013-05-01

    Bluetongue (BT) is a commonly cited example of a disease with a distribution believed to have recently expanded in response to global warming. The BT virus is transmitted to ruminants by biting midges of the genus Culicoides, and it has been hypothesized that the emergence of BT in Mediterranean Europe during the last two decades is a consequence of the recent colonization of the region by Culicoides imicola and linked to climate change. To better understand the mechanism responsible for the northward spread of BT, we tested the hypothesis of a recent colonization of Italy by C. imicola, by obtaining samples from more than 60 localities across Italy, Corsica, Southern France, and Northern Africa (the hypothesized source point for the recent invasion of C. imicola), and by genotyping them with 10 newly identified microsatellite loci. The patterns of genetic variation within and among the sampled populations were characterized and used in a rigorous approximate Bayesian computation framework to compare three competing historical hypotheses related to the arrival and establishment of C. imicola in Italy. The hypothesis of an ancient presence of the insect vector was strongly favoured by this analysis, with an associated P ≥ 99%, suggesting that causes other than the northward range expansion of C. imicola may have supported the emergence of BT in southern Europe. Overall, this study illustrates the potential of molecular genetic markers for exploring the assumed link between climate change and the spread of diseases. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  7. Near Real Time Change-Point detection in Optical and Thermal Infrared Time Series Using Bayesian Inference over the Dry Chaco Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barraza Bernadas, V.; Grings, F.; Roitberg, E.; Perna, P.; Karszenbaum, H.

    2017-12-01

    The Dry Chaco region (DCF) has the highest absolute deforestation rates of all Argentinian forests. The most recent report indicates a current deforestation rate of 200,000 Ha year-1. In order to better monitor this process, DCF was chosen to implement an early warning program for illegal deforestation. Although the area is intensively studied using medium resolution imagery (Landsat), the products obtained have a yearly pace and therefore unsuited for an early warning program. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of an online Bayesian change-point detection algorithm for MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) datasets. The goal was to to monitor the abrupt changes in vegetation dynamics associated with deforestation events. We tested this model by simulating 16-day EVI and 8-day LST time series with varying amounts of seasonality, noise, length of the time series and by adding abrupt changes with different magnitudes. This model was then tested on real satellite time series available through the Google Earth Engine, over a pilot area in DCF, where deforestation was common in the 2004-2016 period. A comparison with yearly benchmark products based on Landsat images is also presented (REDAF dataset). The results shows the advantages of using an automatic model to detect a changepoint in the time series than using only visual inspection techniques. Simulating time series with varying amounts of seasonality and noise, and by adding abrupt changes at different times and magnitudes, revealed that this model is robust against noise, and is not influenced by changes in amplitude of the seasonal component. Furthermore, the results compared favorably with REDAF dataset (near 65% of agreement). These results show the potential to combine LST and EVI to identify deforestation events. This work is being developed within the frame of the national Forest Law for the protection and sustainable development of Native Forest in Argentina in

  8. A bayesian procedure in the context of sequential mastery testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans J. Vos

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Un procedimiento bayesiano en el contexto de los tests secuenciales de clasificación. El propósito de este artículo consiste en obtener reglas óptimas en los tests secuenciales de clasificación. En un test secuencial de clasificación, la decisión a tomar es clasificar a una persona como maestro, no maestro, o continuar el test y administrar el siguiente ítem. Se aplica la teoría de la decisión secuencial bayesiana; es decir, las reglas óptimas resultan de minimizar las pérdidas esperados posteriores asociadas con todas las posibles reglas de decisión en cada momento de test. La principal ventaja de este acercamiento es que los costes de aplicar el test pueden ser tenidos en cuenta de manera explícita. Se asume el modelo binomial para determinar la probabilidad de respuesta correcta dado un cierto nivel de funcionamiento de la persona. Se adopta una pérdida umbral como función de perdida. El artículo termina con un estudio de simulación en el que la estrategia secuencial bayesiana se compara con otros procedimientos disponibles en la literatura para problemas de decisión similares.

  9. Context-dependent decision-making: a simple Bayesian model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Kevin; Leslie, David S

    2013-05-06

    Many phenomena in animal learning can be explained by a context-learning process whereby an animal learns about different patterns of relationship between environmental variables. Differentiating between such environmental regimes or 'contexts' allows an animal to rapidly adapt its behaviour when context changes occur. The current work views animals as making sequential inferences about current context identity in a world assumed to be relatively stable but also capable of rapid switches to previously observed or entirely new contexts. We describe a novel decision-making model in which contexts are assumed to follow a Chinese restaurant process with inertia and full Bayesian inference is approximated by a sequential-sampling scheme in which only a single hypothesis about current context is maintained. Actions are selected via Thompson sampling, allowing uncertainty in parameters to drive exploration in a straightforward manner. The model is tested on simple two-alternative choice problems with switching reinforcement schedules and the results compared with rat behavioural data from a number of T-maze studies. The model successfully replicates a number of important behavioural effects: spontaneous recovery, the effect of partial reinforcement on extinction and reversal, the overtraining reversal effect, and serial reversal-learning effects.

  10. Analysis of transtheoretical model of health behavioral changes in a nutrition intervention study--a continuous time Markov chain model with Bayesian approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Junsheng; Chan, Wenyaw; Tsai, Chu-Lin; Xiong, Momiao; Tilley, Barbara C

    2015-11-30

    Continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) models are often used to study the progression of chronic diseases in medical research but rarely applied to studies of the process of behavioral change. In studies of interventions to modify behaviors, a widely used psychosocial model is based on the transtheoretical model that often has more than three states (representing stages of change) and conceptually permits all possible instantaneous transitions. Very little attention is given to the study of the relationships between a CTMC model and associated covariates under the framework of transtheoretical model. We developed a Bayesian approach to evaluate the covariate effects on a CTMC model through a log-linear regression link. A simulation study of this approach showed that model parameters were accurately and precisely estimated. We analyzed an existing data set on stages of change in dietary intake from the Next Step Trial using the proposed method and the generalized multinomial logit model. We found that the generalized multinomial logit model was not suitable for these data because it ignores the unbalanced data structure and temporal correlation between successive measurements. Our analysis not only confirms that the nutrition intervention was effective but also provides information on how the intervention affected the transitions among the stages of change. We found that, compared with the control group, subjects in the intervention group, on average, spent substantively less time in the precontemplation stage and were more/less likely to move from an unhealthy/healthy state to a healthy/unhealthy state. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Applying Sparse Machine Learning Methods to Twitter: Analysis of the 2012 Change in Pap Smear Guidelines. A Sequential Mixed-Methods Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyles, Courtney Rees; Godbehere, Andrew; Le, Gem; El Ghaoui, Laurent; Sarkar, Urmimala

    2016-06-10

    It is difficult to synthesize the vast amount of textual data available from social media websites. Capturing real-world discussions via social media could provide insights into individuals' opinions and the decision-making process. We conducted a sequential mixed methods study to determine the utility of sparse machine learning techniques in summarizing Twitter dialogues. We chose a narrowly defined topic for this approach: cervical cancer discussions over a 6-month time period surrounding a change in Pap smear screening guidelines. We applied statistical methodologies, known as sparse machine learning algorithms, to summarize Twitter messages about cervical cancer before and after the 2012 change in Pap smear screening guidelines by the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF). All messages containing the search terms "cervical cancer," "Pap smear," and "Pap test" were analyzed during: (1) January 1-March 13, 2012, and (2) March 14-June 30, 2012. Topic modeling was used to discern the most common topics from each time period, and determine the singular value criterion for each topic. The results were then qualitatively coded from top 10 relevant topics to determine the efficiency of clustering method in grouping distinct ideas, and how the discussion differed before vs. after the change in guidelines . This machine learning method was effective in grouping the relevant discussion topics about cervical cancer during the respective time periods (~20% overall irrelevant content in both time periods). Qualitative analysis determined that a significant portion of the top discussion topics in the second time period directly reflected the USPSTF guideline change (eg, "New Screening Guidelines for Cervical Cancer"), and many topics in both time periods were addressing basic screening promotion and education (eg, "It is Cervical Cancer Awareness Month! Click the link to see where you can receive a free or low cost Pap test.") It was demonstrated that machine learning

  12. Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2011-01-01

    A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic

  13. Bayesian statistics an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Peter M

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel

  14. An approximately Bayesian delta-rule model explains the dynamics of belief updating in a changing environment

    OpenAIRE

    Nassar, Matthew R.; Wilson, Robert C.; Heasly, Benjamin; Gold, Joshua I.

    2010-01-01

    Maintaining appropriate beliefs about variables needed for effective decision-making can be difficult in a dynamic environment. One key issue is the amount of influence that unexpected outcomes should have on existing beliefs. In general, outcomes that are unexpected because of a fundamental change in the environment should carry more influence than outcomes that are unexpected because of persistent environmental stochasticity. Here we use a novel task to characterize how well human subjects ...

  15. An approximately Bayesian delta-rule model explains the dynamics of belief updating in a changing environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nassar, Matthew R; Wilson, Robert C; Heasly, Benjamin; Gold, Joshua I

    2010-09-15

    Maintaining appropriate beliefs about variables needed for effective decision making can be difficult in a dynamic environment. One key issue is the amount of influence that unexpected outcomes should have on existing beliefs. In general, outcomes that are unexpected because of a fundamental change in the environment should carry more influence than outcomes that are unexpected because of persistent environmental stochasticity. Here we use a novel task to characterize how well human subjects follow these principles under a range of conditions. We show that the influence of an outcome depends on both the error made in predicting that outcome and the number of similar outcomes experienced previously. We also show that the exact nature of these tendencies varies considerably across subjects. Finally, we show that these patterns of behavior are consistent with a computationally simple reduction of an ideal-observer model. The model adjusts the influence of newly experienced outcomes according to ongoing estimates of uncertainty and the probability of a fundamental change in the process by which outcomes are generated. A prior that quantifies the expected frequency of such environmental changes accounts for individual variability, including a positive relationship between subjective certainty and the degree to which new information influences existing beliefs. The results suggest that the brain adaptively regulates the influence of decision outcomes on existing beliefs using straightforward updating rules that take into account both recent outcomes and prior expectations about higher-order environmental structure.

  16. Sequential changes in luminal microflora and mucosal cytokine expression during developing of colitis in HLA-B27/beta2-microglobulin transgenic rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hata, K; Andoh, A; Sato, H; Araki, Y; Tanaka, M; Tsujikawa, T; Fujiyama, Y; Bamba, T

    2001-11-01

    Transgenic rats expressing HLA-B27 and human beta2-microglobulin (HLA-B27 rats) spontaneously develop chronic colitis resembling human inflammatory bowel disease. We investigated the sequential changes in the luminal bacterial flora and mucosal cytokine mRNA expression in this model. HLA-B27 rats were maintained in a specific pathogen-free environment, and luminal microflora was evaluated by standard bacterial culture technique. The expression of mucosal cytokine mRNA was analysed by RT-PCR methods. Clinical symptoms of colitis appeared at 8 weeks of age. The total number of obligate anaerobes was higher than those of facultative anaerobes during the experimental period. At 6 weeks of age, the colonization of Bacteroides spp., Bifidobacterium spp. and Lactobacillus spp. was already detectable at high concentrations, whereas Clostridium spp. and Eubacterium spp. were not detected. The expression of proinflammatory cytokines (IL-Ibeta, IL-8 and TNF-alpha) appeared at 8 weeks of age, and these were detectable until 17 weeks. A similar pattern was observed in the expression of Th1 cytokines (IL-2, IL-12 and IFN-gamma). On the other hand, the expression of Th2 cytokines (IL-4, IL-10 and TGF-beta) was weak. IL-4 mRNA expression was weakly detectable only at 6 and 8 weeks of age. The expression of IL-10 and TGF-beta mRNA was scarcely detectable throughout the experimental period. The development of colitis may be mediated by both the predominant expression of Th1 cytokines and the weakness of Th2 cytokine expression in the mucosa. The colonization of anaerobic bacteria, especially Bacteroides spp., may be initiating and promoting these cytokine responses.

  17. Adaptive sequential controller

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Sharkawi, Mohamed A. (Renton, WA); Xing, Jian (Seattle, WA); Butler, Nicholas G. (Newberg, OR); Rodriguez, Alonso (Pasadena, CA)

    1994-01-01

    An adaptive sequential controller (50/50') for controlling a circuit breaker (52) or other switching device to substantially eliminate transients on a distribution line caused by closing and opening the circuit breaker. The device adaptively compensates for changes in the response time of the circuit breaker due to aging and environmental effects. A potential transformer (70) provides a reference signal corresponding to the zero crossing of the voltage waveform, and a phase shift comparator circuit (96) compares the reference signal to the time at which any transient was produced when the circuit breaker closed, producing a signal indicative of the adaptive adjustment that should be made. Similarly, in controlling the opening of the circuit breaker, a current transformer (88) provides a reference signal that is compared against the time at which any transient is detected when the circuit breaker last opened. An adaptive adjustment circuit (102) produces a compensation time that is appropriately modified to account for changes in the circuit breaker response, including the effect of ambient conditions and aging. When next opened or closed, the circuit breaker is activated at an appropriately compensated time, so that it closes when the voltage crosses zero and opens when the current crosses zero, minimizing any transients on the distribution line. Phase angle can be used to control the opening of the circuit breaker relative to the reference signal provided by the potential transformer.

  18. Adaptive sequential controller

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Sharkawi, Mohamed A.; Xing, Jian; Butler, Nicholas G.; Rodriguez, Alonso

    1994-01-01

    An adaptive sequential controller (50/50') for controlling a circuit breaker (52) or other switching device to substantially eliminate transients on a distribution line caused by closing and opening the circuit breaker. The device adaptively compensates for changes in the response time of the circuit breaker due to aging and environmental effects. A potential transformer (70) provides a reference signal corresponding to the zero crossing of the voltage waveform, and a phase shift comparator circuit (96) compares the reference signal to the time at which any transient was produced when the circuit breaker closed, producing a signal indicative of the adaptive adjustment that should be made. Similarly, in controlling the opening of the circuit breaker, a current transformer (88) provides a reference signal that is compared against the time at which any transient is detected when the circuit breaker last opened. An adaptive adjustment circuit (102) produces a compensation time that is appropriately modified to account for changes in the circuit breaker response, including the effect of ambient conditions and aging. When next opened or closed, the circuit breaker is activated at an appropriately compensated time, so that it closes when the voltage crosses zero and opens when the current crosses zero, minimizing any transients on the distribution line. Phase angle can be used to control the opening of the circuit breaker relative to the reference signal provided by the potential transformer.

  19. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

  20. The Bayesian Score Statistic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleibergen, F.R.; Kleijn, R.; Paap, R.

    2000-01-01

    We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative. Unlike

  1. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2007-02-15

    Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos

  2. Bayesian approach to inverse statistical mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habeck, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Inverse statistical mechanics aims to determine particle interactions from ensemble properties. This article looks at this inverse problem from a Bayesian perspective and discusses several statistical estimators to solve it. In addition, a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed that draws the interaction parameters from their posterior probability distribution. The posterior probability involves an intractable partition function that is estimated along with the interactions. The method is illustrated for inverse problems of varying complexity, including the estimation of a temperature, the inverse Ising problem, maximum entropy fitting, and the reconstruction of molecular interaction potentials.

  3. Personalized Audio Systems - a Bayesian Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jens Brehm; Jensen, Bjørn Sand; Hansen, Toke Jansen

    2013-01-01

    Modern audio systems are typically equipped with several user-adjustable parameters unfamiliar to most users listening to the system. To obtain the best possible setting, the user is forced into multi-parameter optimization with respect to the users's own objective and preference. To address this......, the present paper presents a general inter-active framework for personalization of such audio systems. The framework builds on Bayesian Gaussian process regression in which a model of the users's objective function is updated sequentially. The parameter setting to be evaluated in a given trial is selected...

  4. Sequential charged particle reaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hori, Jun-ichi; Ochiai, Kentaro; Sato, Satoshi; Yamauchi, Michinori; Nishitani, Takeo

    2004-01-01

    The effective cross sections for producing the sequential reaction products in F82H, pure vanadium and LiF with respect to the 14.9-MeV neutron were obtained and compared with the estimation ones. Since the sequential reactions depend on the secondary charged particles behavior, the effective cross sections are corresponding to the target nuclei and the material composition. The effective cross sections were also estimated by using the EAF-libraries and compared with the experimental ones. There were large discrepancies between estimated and experimental values. Additionally, we showed the contribution of the sequential reaction on the induced activity and dose rate in the boundary region with water. From the present study, it has been clarified that the sequential reactions are of great importance to evaluate the dose rates around the surface of cooling pipe and the activated corrosion products. (author)

  5. Bayesian computation with R

    CERN Document Server

    Albert, Jim

    2009-01-01

    There has been a dramatic growth in the development and application of Bayesian inferential methods. Some of this growth is due to the availability of powerful simulation-based algorithms to summarize posterior distributions. There has been also a growing interest in the use of the system R for statistical analyses. R's open source nature, free availability, and large number of contributor packages have made R the software of choice for many statisticians in education and industry. Bayesian Computation with R introduces Bayesian modeling by the use of computation using the R language. The earl

  6. Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

    2018-02-01

    This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

  7. Bayesian methods for data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Carlin, Bradley P.

    2009-01-01

    Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors

  8. Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani

    We propose a Bayesian inferential procedure for the noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and incorporating effects of missing variables. In particular, we devise a fast and reliable posterior simulator that yields the predictive distribution...

  9. Statistics: a Bayesian perspective

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berry, Donald A

    1996-01-01

    ...: it is the only introductory textbook based on Bayesian ideas, it combines concepts and methods, it presents statistics as a means of integrating data into the significant process, it develops ideas...

  10. Bayesian psychometric scaling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fox, Gerardus J.A.; van den Berg, Stéphanie Martine; Veldkamp, Bernard P.; Irwing, P.; Booth, T.; Hughes, D.

    2015-01-01

    In educational and psychological studies, psychometric methods are involved in the measurement of constructs, and in constructing and validating measurement instruments. Assessment results are typically used to measure student proficiency levels and test characteristics. Recently, Bayesian item

  11. Bayesian Networks An Introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Koski, Timo

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include:.: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications.; A detailed description of learni

  12. A Bayesian encourages dropout

    OpenAIRE

    Maeda, Shin-ichi

    2014-01-01

    Dropout is one of the key techniques to prevent the learning from overfitting. It is explained that dropout works as a kind of modified L2 regularization. Here, we shed light on the dropout from Bayesian standpoint. Bayesian interpretation enables us to optimize the dropout rate, which is beneficial for learning of weight parameters and prediction after learning. The experiment result also encourages the optimization of the dropout.

  13. Basics of Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Sujit K

    2010-01-01

    Bayesian methods are rapidly becoming popular tools for making statistical inference in various fields of science including biology, engineering, finance, and genetics. One of the key aspects of Bayesian inferential method is its logical foundation that provides a coherent framework to utilize not only empirical but also scientific information available to a researcher. Prior knowledge arising from scientific background, expert judgment, or previously collected data is used to build a prior distribution which is then combined with current data via the likelihood function to characterize the current state of knowledge using the so-called posterior distribution. Bayesian methods allow the use of models of complex physical phenomena that were previously too difficult to estimate (e.g., using asymptotic approximations). Bayesian methods offer a means of more fully understanding issues that are central to many practical problems by allowing researchers to build integrated models based on hierarchical conditional distributions that can be estimated even with limited amounts of data. Furthermore, advances in numerical integration methods, particularly those based on Monte Carlo methods, have made it possible to compute the optimal Bayes estimators. However, there is a reasonably wide gap between the background of the empirically trained scientists and the full weight of Bayesian statistical inference. Hence, one of the goals of this chapter is to bridge the gap by offering elementary to advanced concepts that emphasize linkages between standard approaches and full probability modeling via Bayesian methods.

  14. Changes in thermo-tolerance and survival under simulated gastrointestinal conditions of Salmonella Enteritidis PT4 and Salmonella Typhimurium PT4 in chicken breast meat after exposure to sequential stresses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melo, Adma Nadja Ferreira de; Souza, Geany Targino de; Schaffner, Donald; Oliveira, Tereza C Moreira de; Maciel, Janeeyre Ferreira; Souza, Evandro Leite de; Magnani, Marciane

    2017-06-19

    This study assessed changes in thermo-tolerance and capability to survive to simulated gastrointestinal conditions of Salmonella Enteritidis PT4 and Salmonella Typhimurium PT4 inoculated in chicken breast meat following exposure to stresses (cold, acid and osmotic) commonly imposed during food processing. The effects of the stress imposed by exposure to oregano (Origanum vulgare L.) essential oil (OVEO) on thermo-tolerance were also assessed. After exposure to cold stress (5°C for 5h) in chicken breast meat the test strains were sequentially exposed to the different stressing substances (lactic acid, NaCl or OVEO) at sub-lethal amounts, which were defined considering previously determined minimum inhibitory concentrations, and finally to thermal treatment (55°C for 30min). Resistant cells from distinct sequential treatments were exposed to simulated gastrointestinal conditions. The exposure to cold stress did not result in increased tolerance to acid stress (lactic acid: 5 and 2.5μL/g) for both strains. Cells of S. Typhimurium PT4 and S. Enteritidis PT4 previously exposed to acid stress showed higher (pthermo-tolerance in both strains. The cells that survived the sequential stress exposure (resistant) showed higher tolerance (pthermo-tolerance and enhance the survival under gastrointestinal conditions of S. Enteritidis PT4 and S. Typhimurium PT4. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Sequential stochastic optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Cairoli, Renzo

    1996-01-01

    Sequential Stochastic Optimization provides mathematicians and applied researchers with a well-developed framework in which stochastic optimization problems can be formulated and solved. Offering much material that is either new or has never before appeared in book form, it lucidly presents a unified theory of optimal stopping and optimal sequential control of stochastic processes. This book has been carefully organized so that little prior knowledge of the subject is assumed; its only prerequisites are a standard graduate course in probability theory and some familiarity with discrete-paramet

  16. Applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Hendrik J.

    1994-01-01

    Some applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems are considered. How the problem of adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to the changing nature of a student's capabilities during the learning process can be situated in the general framework of Bayesian decision

  17. Bayesian inversion analysis of nonlinear dynamics in surface heterogeneous reactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omori, Toshiaki; Kuwatani, Tatsu; Okamoto, Atsushi; Hukushima, Koji

    2016-09-01

    It is essential to extract nonlinear dynamics from time-series data as an inverse problem in natural sciences. We propose a Bayesian statistical framework for extracting nonlinear dynamics of surface heterogeneous reactions from sparse and noisy observable data. Surface heterogeneous reactions are chemical reactions with conjugation of multiple phases, and they have the intrinsic nonlinearity of their dynamics caused by the effect of surface-area between different phases. We adapt a belief propagation method and an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to partial observation problem, in order to simultaneously estimate the time course of hidden variables and the kinetic parameters underlying dynamics. The proposed belief propagation method is performed by using sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in order to estimate nonlinear dynamical system. Using our proposed method, we show that the rate constants of dissolution and precipitation reactions, which are typical examples of surface heterogeneous reactions, as well as the temporal changes of solid reactants and products, were successfully estimated only from the observable temporal changes in the concentration of the dissolved intermediate product.

  18. Sequential memory: Binding dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afraimovich, Valentin; Gong, Xue; Rabinovich, Mikhail

    2015-10-01

    Temporal order memories are critical for everyday animal and human functioning. Experiments and our own experience show that the binding or association of various features of an event together and the maintaining of multimodality events in sequential order are the key components of any sequential memories—episodic, semantic, working, etc. We study a robustness of binding sequential dynamics based on our previously introduced model in the form of generalized Lotka-Volterra equations. In the phase space of the model, there exists a multi-dimensional binding heteroclinic network consisting of saddle equilibrium points and heteroclinic trajectories joining them. We prove here the robustness of the binding sequential dynamics, i.e., the feasibility phenomenon for coupled heteroclinic networks: for each collection of successive heteroclinic trajectories inside the unified networks, there is an open set of initial points such that the trajectory going through each of them follows the prescribed collection staying in a small neighborhood of it. We show also that the symbolic complexity function of the system restricted to this neighborhood is a polynomial of degree L - 1, where L is the number of modalities.

  19. Sequential Dependencies in Driving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doshi, Anup; Tran, Cuong; Wilder, Matthew H.; Mozer, Michael C.; Trivedi, Mohan M.

    2012-01-01

    The effect of recent experience on current behavior has been studied extensively in simple laboratory tasks. We explore the nature of sequential effects in the more naturalistic setting of automobile driving. Driving is a safety-critical task in which delayed response times may have severe consequences. Using a realistic driving simulator, we find…

  20. Mining compressing sequential problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoang, T.L.; Mörchen, F.; Fradkin, D.; Calders, T.G.K.

    2012-01-01

    Compression based pattern mining has been successfully applied to many data mining tasks. We propose an approach based on the minimum description length principle to extract sequential patterns that compress a database of sequences well. We show that mining compressing patterns is NP-Hard and

  1. Bayesian networks with examples in R

    CERN Document Server

    Scutari, Marco

    2014-01-01

    Introduction. The Discrete Case: Multinomial Bayesian Networks. The Continuous Case: Gaussian Bayesian Networks. More Complex Cases. Theory and Algorithms for Bayesian Networks. Real-World Applications of Bayesian Networks. Appendices. Bibliography.

  2. Bayesian methods in reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

    1991-11-01

    The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

  3. Bayesian policy reuse

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosman, Benjamin

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Keywords Policy Reuse · Reinforcement Learning · Online Learning · Online Bandits · Transfer Learning · Bayesian Optimisation · Bayesian Decision Theory. 1 Introduction As robots and software agents are becoming more ubiquitous in many applications.... The agent has access to a library of policies (pi1, pi2 and pi3), and has previously experienced a set of task instances (τ1, τ2, τ3, τ4), as well as samples of the utilities of the library policies on these instances (the black dots indicate the means...

  4. Forced Sequence Sequential Decoding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole Riis

    In this thesis we describe a new concatenated decoding scheme based on iterations between an inner sequentially decoded convolutional code of rate R=1/4 and memory M=23, and block interleaved outer Reed-Solomon codes with non-uniform profile. With this scheme decoding with good performance...... is possible as low as Eb/No=0.6 dB, which is about 1.7 dB below the signal-to-noise ratio that marks the cut-off rate for the convolutional code. This is possible since the iteration process provides the sequential decoders with side information that allows a smaller average load and minimizes the probability...... of computational overflow. Analytical results for the probability that the first Reed-Solomon word is decoded after C computations are presented. This is supported by simulation results that are also extended to other parameters....

  5. Sequential Power-Dependence Theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buskens, Vincent; Rijt, Arnout van de

    2008-01-01

    Existing methods for predicting resource divisions in laboratory exchange networks do not take into account the sequential nature of the experimental setting. We extend network exchange theory by considering sequential exchange. We prove that Sequential Power-Dependence Theory—unlike

  6. Modelling sequentially scored item responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akkermans, W.

    2000-01-01

    The sequential model can be used to describe the variable resulting from a sequential scoring process. In this paper two more item response models are investigated with respect to their suitability for sequential scoring: the partial credit model and the graded response model. The investigation is

  7. Forced Sequence Sequential Decoding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole Riis; Paaske, Erik

    1998-01-01

    We describe a new concatenated decoding scheme based on iterations between an inner sequentially decoded convolutional code of rate R=1/4 and memory M=23, and block interleaved outer Reed-Solomon (RS) codes with nonuniform profile. With this scheme decoding with good performance is possible as low...... as Eb/N0=0.6 dB, which is about 1.25 dB below the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) that marks the cutoff rate for the full system. Accounting for about 0.45 dB due to the outer codes, sequential decoding takes place at about 1.7 dB below the SNR cutoff rate for the convolutional code. This is possible since...... the iteration process provides the sequential decoders with side information that allows a smaller average load and minimizes the probability of computational overflow. Analytical results for the probability that the first RS word is decoded after C computations are presented. These results are supported...

  8. Spike-Based Bayesian-Hebbian Learning of Temporal Sequences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip J Tully

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Many cognitive and motor functions are enabled by the temporal representation and processing of stimuli, but it remains an open issue how neocortical microcircuits can reliably encode and replay such sequences of information. To better understand this, a modular attractor memory network is proposed in which meta-stable sequential attractor transitions are learned through changes to synaptic weights and intrinsic excitabilities via the spike-based Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN learning rule. We find that the formation of distributed memories, embodied by increased periods of firing in pools of excitatory neurons, together with asymmetrical associations between these distinct network states, can be acquired through plasticity. The model's feasibility is demonstrated using simulations of adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire model neurons (AdEx. We show that the learning and speed of sequence replay depends on a confluence of biophysically relevant parameters including stimulus duration, level of background noise, ratio of synaptic currents, and strengths of short-term depression and adaptation. Moreover, sequence elements are shown to flexibly participate multiple times in the sequence, suggesting that spiking attractor networks of this type can support an efficient combinatorial code. The model provides a principled approach towards understanding how multiple interacting plasticity mechanisms can coordinate hetero-associative learning in unison.

  9. Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

    CERN Document Server

    Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...

  10. Bayesian logistic regression analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an

  11. Bayesian Dark Knowledge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Korattikara, A.; Rathod, V.; Murphy, K.; Welling, M.; Cortes, C.; Lawrence, N.D.; Lee, D.D.; Sugiyama, M.; Garnett, R.

    2015-01-01

    We consider the problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for deep neural networks, which is important in problem settings where we may have little data, and/ or where we need accurate posterior predictive densities p(y|x, D), e.g., for applications involving bandits or active learning. One simple

  12. Bayesian Geostatistical Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Diggle, Peter; Lophaven, Søren Nymand

    2006-01-01

    locations to, or deletion of locations from, an existing design, and prospective design, which consists of choosing positions for a new set of sampling locations. We propose a Bayesian design criterion which focuses on the goal of efficient spatial prediction whilst allowing for the fact that model...

  13. Bayesian statistical inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno De Finetti

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.

  14. Bayesian grid matching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    2003-01-01

    A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which r...

  15. Bayesian Independent Component Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winther, Ole; Petersen, Kaare Brandt

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...

  16. Bayesian Exponential Smoothing.

    OpenAIRE

    Forbes, C.S.; Snyder, R.D.; Shami, R.S.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, a Bayesian version of the exponential smoothing method of forecasting is proposed. The approach is based on a state space model containing only a single source of error for each time interval. This model allows us to improve current practices surrounding exponential smoothing by providing both point predictions and measures of the uncertainty surrounding them.

  17. Bayesian optimization for materials science

    CERN Document Server

    Packwood, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science. Bayesian optimization is a promising global optimization technique that originates in the field of machine learning and is starting to gain attention in materials science. For the purpose of materials design, Bayesian optimization can be used to predict new materials with novel properties without extensive screening of candidate materials. For the purpose of computational materials science, Bayesian optimization can be incorporated into first-principles calculations to perform efficient, global structure optimizations. While re...

  18. An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly M; Clifton, James P; van de Schoot, Rens; Tiemensma, Jitske

    2017-09-01

    The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of health psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation models, latent growth curve (and mixture) models, and hierarchical linear models. Likewise, Bayesian methods can be used with small sample sizes since they do not rely on large sample theory. In this article, we discuss several important components of Bayesian statistics as they relate to health-based inquiries. We discuss the incorporation and impact of prior knowledge into the estimation process and the different components of the analysis that should be reported in an article. We present an example implementing Bayesian estimation in the context of blood pressure changes after participants experienced an acute stressor. We conclude with final thoughts on the implementation of Bayesian statistics in health psychology, including suggestions for reviewing Bayesian manuscripts and grant proposals. We have also included an extensive amount of online supplementary material to complement the content presented here, including Bayesian examples using many different software programmes and an extensive sensitivity analysis examining the impact of priors.

  19. Sequential dependencies in magnitude scaling of loudness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joshi, Suyash Narendra; Jesteadt, Walt

    2013-01-01

    Ten normally hearing listeners used a programmable sone-potentiometer knob to adjust the level of a 1000-Hz sinusoid to match the loudness of numbers presented to them in a magnitude production task. Three different power-law exponents (0.15, 0.30, and 0.60) and a log-law with equal steps in d......B were used to program the sone-potentiometer. The knob settings systematically influenced the form of the loudness function. Time series analysis was used to assess the sequential dependencies in the data, which increased with increasing exponent and were greatest for the log-law. It would be possible......, therefore, to choose knob properties that minimized these dependencies. When the sequential dependencies were removed from the data, the slope of the loudness functions did not change, but the variability decreased. Sequential dependencies were only present when the level of the tone on the previous trial...

  20. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen Ringi, M

    1995-05-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.

  1. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen Ringi, M.

    1995-01-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person's state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs

  2. A novel Bayesian learning method for information aggregation in modular neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Pan; Xu, Lida; Zhou, Shang-Ming

    2010-01-01

    Modular neural network is a popular neural network model which has many successful applications. In this paper, a sequential Bayesian learning (SBL) is proposed for modular neural networks aiming at efficiently aggregating the outputs of members of the ensemble. The experimental results on eight...... benchmark problems have demonstrated that the proposed method can perform information aggregation efficiently in data modeling....

  3. Sequential decay of Reggeons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Toshihiro

    1981-01-01

    Probabilities of meson production in the sequential decay of Reggeons, which are formed from the projectile and the target in the hadron-hadron to Reggeon-Reggeon processes, are investigated. It is assumed that pair creation of heavy quarks and simultaneous creation of two antiquark-quark pairs are negligible. The leading-order terms with respect to ratio of creation probabilities of anti s s to anti u u (anti d d) are calculated. The production cross sections in the target fragmentation region are given in terms of probabilities in the initial decay of the Reggeons and an effect of manyparticle production. (author)

  4. Synthetic Aperture Sequential Beamforming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kortbek, Jacob; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt; Gammelmark, Kim Løkke

    2008-01-01

    A synthetic aperture focusing (SAF) technique denoted Synthetic Aperture Sequential Beamforming (SASB) suitable for 2D and 3D imaging is presented. The technique differ from prior art of SAF in the sense that SAF is performed on pre-beamformed data contrary to channel data. The objective is to im......A synthetic aperture focusing (SAF) technique denoted Synthetic Aperture Sequential Beamforming (SASB) suitable for 2D and 3D imaging is presented. The technique differ from prior art of SAF in the sense that SAF is performed on pre-beamformed data contrary to channel data. The objective...... is to improve and obtain a more range independent lateral resolution compared to conventional dynamic receive focusing (DRF) without compromising frame rate. SASB is a two-stage procedure using two separate beamformers. First a set of Bmode image lines using a single focal point in both transmit and receive...... is stored. The second stage applies the focused image lines from the first stage as input data. The SASB method has been investigated using simulations in Field II and by off-line processing of data acquired with a commercial scanner. The performance of SASB with a static image object is compared with DRF...

  5. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  6. Bayesian community detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel N

    2012-01-01

    Many networks of scientific interest naturally decompose into clusters or communities with comparatively fewer external than internal links; however, current Bayesian models of network communities do not exert this intuitive notion of communities. We formulate a nonparametric Bayesian model...... for community detection consistent with an intuitive definition of communities and present a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for inferring the community structure. A Matlab toolbox with the proposed inference procedure is available for download. On synthetic and real networks, our model detects communities...... consistent with ground truth, and on real networks, it outperforms existing approaches in predicting missing links. This suggests that community structure is an important structural property of networks that should be explicitly modeled....

  7. Adversarial life testing: A Bayesian negotiation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rufo, M.J.; Martín, J.; Pérez, C.J.

    2014-01-01

    Life testing is a procedure intended for facilitating the process of making decisions in the context of industrial reliability. On the other hand, negotiation is a process of making joint decisions that has one of its main foundations in decision theory. A Bayesian sequential model of negotiation in the context of adversarial life testing is proposed. This model considers a general setting for which a manufacturer offers a product batch to a consumer. It is assumed that the reliability of the product is measured in terms of its lifetime. Furthermore, both the manufacturer and the consumer have to use their own information with respect to the quality of the product. Under these assumptions, two situations can be analyzed. For both of them, the main aim is to accept or reject the product batch based on the product reliability. This topic is related to a reliability demonstration problem. The procedure is applied to a class of distributions that belong to the exponential family. Thus, a unified framework addressing the main topics in the considered Bayesian model is presented. An illustrative example shows that the proposed technique can be easily applied in practice

  8. Bayesian Analysis of Bubbles in Asset Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andras Fulop

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available We develop a new model where the dynamic structure of the asset price, after the fundamental value is removed, is subject to two different regimes. One regime reflects the normal period where the asset price divided by the dividend is assumed to follow a mean-reverting process around a stochastic long run mean. The second regime reflects the bubble period with explosive behavior. Stochastic switches between two regimes and non-constant probabilities of exit from the bubble regime are both allowed. A Bayesian learning approach is employed to jointly estimate the latent states and the model parameters in real time. An important feature of our Bayesian method is that we are able to deal with parameter uncertainty and at the same time, to learn about the states and the parameters sequentially, allowing for real time model analysis. This feature is particularly useful for market surveillance. Analysis using simulated data reveals that our method has good power properties for detecting bubbles. Empirical analysis using price-dividend ratios of S&P500 highlights the advantages of our method.

  9. Approximate Bayesian recursive estimation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kárný, Miroslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 285, č. 1 (2014), s. 100-111 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Approximate parameter estimation * Bayesian recursive estimation * Kullback–Leibler divergence * Forgetting Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.038, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/AS/karny-0425539.pdf

  10. Subjective Bayesian Beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.

    2015-01-01

    A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimenta...... economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule....

  11. Bayesian Hypothesis Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, Stephen A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sigeti, David E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-11-15

    These are a set of slides about Bayesian hypothesis testing, where many hypotheses are tested. The conclusions are the following: The value of the Bayes factor obtained when using the median of the posterior marginal is almost the minimum value of the Bayes factor. The value of τ2 which minimizes the Bayes factor is a reasonable choice for this parameter. This allows a likelihood ratio to be computed with is the least favorable to H0.

  12. Introduction to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Koch, Karl-Rudolf

    2007-01-01

    This book presents Bayes' theorem, the estimation of unknown parameters, the determination of confidence regions and the derivation of tests of hypotheses for the unknown parameters. It does so in a simple manner that is easy to comprehend. The book compares traditional and Bayesian methods with the rules of probability presented in a logical way allowing an intuitive understanding of random variables and their probability distributions to be formed.

  13. Sequential Detection of Fission Processes for Harbor Defense

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candy, J V; Walston, S E; Chambers, D H

    2015-02-12

    With the large increase in terrorist activities throughout the world, the timely and accurate detection of special nuclear material (SNM) has become an extremely high priority for many countries concerned with national security. The detection of radionuclide contraband based on their γ-ray emissions has been attacked vigorously with some interesting and feasible results; however, the fission process of SNM has not received as much attention due to its inherent complexity and required predictive nature. In this paper, on-line, sequential Bayesian detection and estimation (parameter) techniques to rapidly and reliably detect unknown fissioning sources with high statistical confidence are developed.

  14. Bayesian ARTMAP for regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasu, L M; Andonie, R

    2013-10-01

    Bayesian ARTMAP (BA) is a recently introduced neural architecture which uses a combination of Fuzzy ARTMAP competitive learning and Bayesian learning. Training is generally performed online, in a single-epoch. During training, BA creates input data clusters as Gaussian categories, and also infers the conditional probabilities between input patterns and categories, and between categories and classes. During prediction, BA uses Bayesian posterior probability estimation. So far, BA was used only for classification. The goal of this paper is to analyze the efficiency of BA for regression problems. Our contributions are: (i) we generalize the BA algorithm using the clustering functionality of both ART modules, and name it BA for Regression (BAR); (ii) we prove that BAR is a universal approximator with the best approximation property. In other words, BAR approximates arbitrarily well any continuous function (universal approximation) and, for every given continuous function, there is one in the set of BAR approximators situated at minimum distance (best approximation); (iii) we experimentally compare the online trained BAR with several neural models, on the following standard regression benchmarks: CPU Computer Hardware, Boston Housing, Wisconsin Breast Cancer, and Communities and Crime. Our results show that BAR is an appropriate tool for regression tasks, both for theoretical and practical reasons. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Bayesian theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A

    2013-01-01

    The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...

  16. Differential responses of brain, gonad and muscle steroid levels to changes in social status and sex in a sequential and bidirectional hermaphroditic fish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varenka Lorenzi

    Full Text Available Sex steroids can both modulate and be modulated by behavior, and their actions are mediated by complex interactions among multiple hormone sources and targets. While gonadal steroids delivered via circulation can affect behavior, changes in local brain steroid synthesis also can modulate behavior. The relative steroid load across different tissues and the association of these levels with rates of behavior have not been well studied. The bluebanded goby (Lythrypnus dalli is a sex changing fish in which social status determines sexual phenotype. We examined changes in steroid levels in brain, gonad and body muscle at either 24 hours or 6 days after social induction of protogynous sex change, and from individuals in stable social groups not undergoing sex change. For each tissue, we measured levels of estradiol (E(2, testosterone (T and 11-ketotestosterone (KT. Females had more T than males in the gonads, and more E(2 in all tissues but there was no sex difference in KT. For both sexes, E(2 was higher in the gonad than in other tissues while androgens were higher in the brain. During sex change, brain T levels dropped while brain KT increased, and brain E(2 levels did not change. We found a positive relationship between androgens and aggression in the most dominant females but only when the male was removed from the social group. The results demonstrate that steroid levels are responsive to changes in the social environment, and that their concentrations vary in different tissues. Also, we suggest that rapid changes in brain androgen levels might be important in inducing behavioral and/or morphological changes associated with protogynous sex change.

  17. Bayesian analysis in plant pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mila, A L; Carriquiry, A L

    2004-09-01

    ABSTRACT Bayesian methods are currently much discussed and applied in several disciplines from molecular biology to engineering. Bayesian inference is the process of fitting a probability model to a set of data and summarizing the results via probability distributions on the parameters of the model and unobserved quantities such as predictions for new observations. In this paper, after a short introduction of Bayesian inference, we present the basic features of Bayesian methodology using examples from sequencing genomic fragments and analyzing microarray gene-expressing levels, reconstructing disease maps, and designing experiments.

  18. A path-level exact parallelization strategy for sequential simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peredo, Oscar F.; Baeza, Daniel; Ortiz, Julián M.; Herrero, José R.

    2018-01-01

    Sequential Simulation is a well known method in geostatistical modelling. Following the Bayesian approach for simulation of conditionally dependent random events, Sequential Indicator Simulation (SIS) method draws simulated values for K categories (categorical case) or classes defined by K different thresholds (continuous case). Similarly, Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) method draws simulated values from a multivariate Gaussian field. In this work, a path-level approach to parallelize SIS and SGS methods is presented. A first stage of re-arrangement of the simulation path is performed, followed by a second stage of parallel simulation for non-conflicting nodes. A key advantage of the proposed parallelization method is to generate identical realizations as with the original non-parallelized methods. Case studies are presented using two sequential simulation codes from GSLIB: SISIM and SGSIM. Execution time and speedup results are shown for large-scale domains, with many categories and maximum kriging neighbours in each case, achieving high speedup results in the best scenarios using 16 threads of execution in a single machine.

  19. Bayesian nonparametric data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter; Jara, Alejandro; Hanson, Tim

    2015-01-01

    This book reviews nonparametric Bayesian methods and models that have proven useful in the context of data analysis. Rather than providing an encyclopedic review of probability models, the book’s structure follows a data analysis perspective. As such, the chapters are organized by traditional data analysis problems. In selecting specific nonparametric models, simpler and more traditional models are favored over specialized ones. The discussed methods are illustrated with a wealth of examples, including applications ranging from stylized examples to case studies from recent literature. The book also includes an extensive discussion of computational methods and details on their implementation. R code for many examples is included in on-line software pages.

  20. Applied Bayesian modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Congdon, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and data analysis, with an emphasis on the interpretation of real data sets. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, this book aims to make a wide range of statistical modeling applications accessible using tested code that can be readily adapted to the reader's own applications. The second edition has been thoroughly reworked and updated to take account of advances in the field. A new set of worked examples is included. The novel aspect of the first edition was the coverage of statistical modeling using WinBU

  1. Simulating water quality and ecological status of Lake Vansjø, Norway, under land-use and climate change by linking process-oriented models with a Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couture, Raoul-Marie; Moe, S Jannicke; Lin, Yan; Kaste, Øyvind; Haande, Sigrid; Lyche Solheim, Anne

    2018-04-15

    Excess nutrient inputs and climate change are two of multiple stressors affecting many lakes worldwide. Lake Vansjø in southern Norway is one such eutrophic lake impacted by blooms of toxic blue-green algae (cyanobacteria), and classified as moderate ecological status under the EU Water Framework Directive. Future climate change may exacerbate the situation. Here we use a set of chained models (global climate model, hydrological model, catchment phosphorus (P) model, lake model, Bayesian Network) to assess the possible future ecological status of the lake, given the set of climate scenarios and storylines common to the EU project MARS (Managing Aquatic Ecosystems and Water Resources under Multiple Stress). The model simulations indicate that climate change alone will increase precipitation and runoff, and give higher P fluxes to the lake, but cause little increase in phytoplankton biomass or changes in ecological status. For the storylines of future management and land-use, however, the model results indicate that both the phytoplankton biomass and the lake ecological status can be positively or negatively affected. Our results also show the value in predicting a biological indicator of lake ecological status, in this case, cyanobacteria biomass with a BN model. For all scenarios, cyanobacteria contribute to worsening the status assessed by phytoplankton, compared to using chlorophyll-a alone. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Kristin

    2016-04-01

    Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables

  3. Induction of simultaneous and sequential malolactic fermentation in durian wine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniasuri, Fransisca; Lee, Pin-Rou; Liu, Shao-Quan

    2016-08-02

    This study represented for the first time the impact of malolactic fermentation (MLF) induced by Oenococcus oeni and its inoculation strategies (simultaneous vs. sequential) on the fermentation performance as well as aroma compound profile of durian wine. There was no negative impact of simultaneous inoculation of O. oeni and Saccharomyces cerevisiae on the growth and fermentation kinetics of S. cerevisiae as compared to sequential fermentation. Simultaneous MLF did not lead to an excessive increase in volatile acidity as compared to sequential MLF. The kinetic changes of organic acids (i.e. malic, lactic, succinic, acetic and α-ketoglutaric acids) varied with simultaneous and sequential MLF relative to yeast alone. MLF, regardless of inoculation mode, resulted in higher production of fermentation-derived volatiles as compared to control (alcoholic fermentation only), including esters, volatile fatty acids, and terpenes, except for higher alcohols. Most indigenous volatile sulphur compounds in durian were decreased to trace levels with little differences among the control, simultaneous and sequential MLF. Among the different wines, the wine with simultaneous MLF had higher concentrations of terpenes and acetate esters while sequential MLF had increased concentrations of medium- and long-chain ethyl esters. Relative to alcoholic fermentation only, both simultaneous and sequential MLF reduced acetaldehyde substantially with sequential MLF being more effective. These findings illustrate that MLF is an effective and novel way of modulating the volatile and aroma compound profile of durian wine. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....

  5. Searching Algorithm Using Bayesian Updates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caudle, Kyle

    2010-01-01

    In late October 1967, the USS Scorpion was lost at sea, somewhere between the Azores and Norfolk Virginia. Dr. Craven of the U.S. Navy's Special Projects Division is credited with using Bayesian Search Theory to locate the submarine. Bayesian Search Theory is a straightforward and interesting application of Bayes' theorem which involves searching…

  6. Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 2)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2018-01-01

    framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

  7. Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 1)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2018-01-01

    framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

  8. The Bayesian Covariance Lasso.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khondker, Zakaria S; Zhu, Hongtu; Chu, Haitao; Lin, Weili; Ibrahim, Joseph G

    2013-04-01

    Estimation of sparse covariance matrices and their inverse subject to positive definiteness constraints has drawn a lot of attention in recent years. The abundance of high-dimensional data, where the sample size ( n ) is less than the dimension ( d ), requires shrinkage estimation methods since the maximum likelihood estimator is not positive definite in this case. Furthermore, when n is larger than d but not sufficiently larger, shrinkage estimation is more stable than maximum likelihood as it reduces the condition number of the precision matrix. Frequentist methods have utilized penalized likelihood methods, whereas Bayesian approaches rely on matrix decompositions or Wishart priors for shrinkage. In this paper we propose a new method, called the Bayesian Covariance Lasso (BCLASSO), for the shrinkage estimation of a precision (covariance) matrix. We consider a class of priors for the precision matrix that leads to the popular frequentist penalties as special cases, develop a Bayes estimator for the precision matrix, and propose an efficient sampling scheme that does not precalculate boundaries for positive definiteness. The proposed method is permutation invariant and performs shrinkage and estimation simultaneously for non-full rank data. Simulations show that the proposed BCLASSO performs similarly as frequentist methods for non-full rank data.

  9. Approximate Bayesian computation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikael Sunnåker

    Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and approximations whose impact needs to be carefully assessed. Furthermore, the wider application domain of ABC exacerbates the challenges of parameter estimation and model selection. ABC has rapidly gained popularity over the last years and in particular for the analysis of complex problems arising in biological sciences (e.g., in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology, and systems biology.

  10. Bayesian inference with ecological applications

    CERN Document Server

    Link, William A

    2009-01-01

    This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...

  11. Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asad Ali

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an  overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.

  12. Bayesian optimal experimental design for the Shock-tube experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terejanu, G; Bryant, C M; Miki, K

    2013-01-01

    The sequential optimal experimental design formulated as an information-theoretic sensitivity analysis is applied to the ignition delay problem using real experimental. The optimal design is obtained by maximizing the statistical dependence between the model parameters and observables, which is quantified in this study using mutual information. This is naturally posed in the Bayesian framework. The study shows that by monitoring the information gain after each measurement update, one can design a stopping criteria for the experimental process which gives a minimal set of experiments to efficiently learn the Arrhenius parameters.

  13. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Schöbel

    Full Text Available People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.

  14. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people’s decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others’ authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions. PMID:26784448

  15. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people's decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others' authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions.

  16. How to practise Bayesian statistics outside the Bayesian church: What philosophy for Bayesian statistical modelling?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.

    2013-01-01

    Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science

  17. Risk-based design of process systems using discrete-time Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Temporal Bayesian networks have gained popularity as a robust technique to model dynamic systems in which the components' sequential dependency, as well as their functional dependency, cannot be ignored. In this regard, discrete-time Bayesian networks have been proposed as a viable alternative to solve dynamic fault trees without resort to Markov chains. This approach overcomes the drawbacks of Markov chains such as the state-space explosion and the error-prone conversion procedure from dynamic fault tree. It also benefits from the inherent advantages of Bayesian networks such as probability updating. However, effective mapping of the dynamic gates of dynamic fault trees into Bayesian networks while avoiding the consequent huge multi-dimensional probability tables has always been a matter of concern. In this paper, a new general formalism has been developed to model two important elements of dynamic fault tree, i.e., cold spare gate and sequential enforcing gate, with any arbitrary probability distribution functions. Also, an innovative Neutral Dependency algorithm has been introduced to model dynamic gates such as priority-AND gate, thus reducing the dimension of conditional probability tables by an order of magnitude. The second part of the paper is devoted to the application of discrete-time Bayesian networks in the risk assessment and safety analysis of complex process systems. It has been shown how dynamic techniques can effectively be applied for optimal allocation of safety systems to obtain maximum risk reduction.

  18. Quantum Inequalities and Sequential Measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Candelpergher, B.; Grandouz, T.; Rubinx, J.L.

    2011-01-01

    In this article, the peculiar context of sequential measurements is chosen in order to analyze the quantum specificity in the two most famous examples of Heisenberg and Bell inequalities: Results are found at some interesting variance with customary textbook materials, where the context of initial state re-initialization is described. A key-point of the analysis is the possibility of defining Joint Probability Distributions for sequential random variables associated to quantum operators. Within the sequential context, it is shown that Joint Probability Distributions can be defined in situations where not all of the quantum operators (corresponding to random variables) do commute two by two. (authors)

  19. The EC BIOCLIM Project (2000-2003), 5. Euratom Framework Programme - Modelling sequential biosphere systems under climate change for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvez, Marianne

    2002-01-01

    Marianne Calvez (ANDRA, France) presented the new EC BIOCLIM project that started in 2001. Its main objective is to provide a scientific basis and practical methodology for assessing the possible long-term impacts on the safety of radioactive waste repositories in deep formations due to climate driven changes. She explained that BIOCLIM objective is not to predict what will be the future but will correspond to an illustration of how people could use the knowledge. The BIOCLIM project will use the outcomes from the Biomass project. Where Biomass considered discrete biospheres, the BIOCLIM project will consider the evolution of climate with a focus on the European climate for three regions in the United Kingdom, France and Spain. The consortium of BIOCLIM participants consists of various experts in climate modelling and various experts and organisations in performance assessment. The intent is to build an integrated dynamic climate model that represents all the important mechanisms for long-term climate evolution. The modelling will primarily address the next 200000 years. The final outcome will be an enhancement of the state-of-the-art treatment of biosphere system change over long periods of time through the use of a number of innovative climate modelling approaches and the application of the climate model outputs in performance assessments

  20. Bayesian Monte Carlo method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajabalinejad, M.

    2010-01-01

    To reduce cost of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for time-consuming processes, Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) is introduced in this paper. The BMC method reduces number of realizations in MC according to the desired accuracy level. BMC also provides a possibility of considering more priors. In other words, different priors can be integrated into one model by using BMC to further reduce cost of simulations. This study suggests speeding up the simulation process by considering the logical dependence of neighboring points as prior information. This information is used in the BMC method to produce a predictive tool through the simulation process. The general methodology and algorithm of BMC method are presented in this paper. The BMC method is applied to the simplified break water model as well as the finite element model of 17th Street Canal in New Orleans, and the results are compared with the MC and Dynamic Bounds methods.

  1. Bayesian nonparametric hierarchical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunson, David B

    2009-04-01

    In biomedical research, hierarchical models are very widely used to accommodate dependence in multivariate and longitudinal data and for borrowing of information across data from different sources. A primary concern in hierarchical modeling is sensitivity to parametric assumptions, such as linearity and normality of the random effects. Parametric assumptions on latent variable distributions can be challenging to check and are typically unwarranted, given available prior knowledge. This article reviews some recent developments in Bayesian nonparametric methods motivated by complex, multivariate and functional data collected in biomedical studies. The author provides a brief review of flexible parametric approaches relying on finite mixtures and latent class modeling. Dirichlet process mixture models are motivated by the need to generalize these approaches to avoid assuming a fixed finite number of classes. Focusing on an epidemiology application, the author illustrates the practical utility and potential of nonparametric Bayes methods.

  2. Framework for sequential approximate optimization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, J.H.; Etman, L.F.P.; Keulen, van F.; Rooda, J.E.

    2004-01-01

    An object-oriented framework for Sequential Approximate Optimization (SAO) isproposed. The framework aims to provide an open environment for thespecification and implementation of SAO strategies. The framework is based onthe Python programming language and contains a toolbox of Python

  3. Sequential inference as a mode of cognition and its correlates in fronto-parietal and hippocampal brain regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas H B FitzGerald

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Normative models of human cognition often appeal to Bayesian filtering, which provides optimal online estimates of unknown or hidden states of the world, based on previous observations. However, in many cases it is necessary to optimise beliefs about sequences of states rather than just the current state. Importantly, Bayesian filtering and sequential inference strategies make different predictions about beliefs and subsequent choices, rendering them behaviourally dissociable. Taking data from a probabilistic reversal task we show that subjects' choices provide strong evidence that they are representing short sequences of states. Between-subject measures of this implicit sequential inference strategy had a neurobiological underpinning and correlated with grey matter density in prefrontal and parietal cortex, as well as the hippocampus. Our findings provide, to our knowledge, the first evidence for sequential inference in human cognition, and by exploiting between-subject variation in this measure we provide pointers to its neuronal substrates.

  4. Book review: Bayesian analysis for population ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, William A.

    2011-01-01

    Brian Dennis described the field of ecology as “fertile, uncolonized ground for Bayesian ideas.” He continued: “The Bayesian propagule has arrived at the shore. Ecologists need to think long and hard about the consequences of a Bayesian ecology. The Bayesian outlook is a successful competitor, but is it a weed? I think so.” (Dennis 2004)

  5. Sequentially pulsed traveling wave accelerator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caporaso, George J [Livermore, CA; Nelson, Scott D [Patterson, CA; Poole, Brian R [Tracy, CA

    2009-08-18

    A sequentially pulsed traveling wave compact accelerator having two or more pulse forming lines each with a switch for producing a short acceleration pulse along a short length of a beam tube, and a trigger mechanism for sequentially triggering the switches so that a traveling axial electric field is produced along the beam tube in synchronism with an axially traversing pulsed beam of charged particles to serially impart energy to the particle beam.

  6. Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia

    2015-01-01

    Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on

  7. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    OpenAIRE

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the re...

  8. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

     Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...

  9. Coupling centennial-scale shoreline change to sea-level rise and coastal morphology in the Gulf of Mexico using a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.

    2016-01-01

    Predictions of coastal evolution driven by episodic and persistent processes associated with storms and relative sea-level rise (SLR) are required to test our understanding, evaluate our predictive capability, and to provide guidance for coastal management decisions. Previous work demonstrated that the spatial variability of long-term shoreline change can be predicted using observed SLR rates, tide range, wave height, coastal slope, and a characterization of the geomorphic setting. The shoreline is not suf- ficient to indicate which processes are important in causing shoreline change, such as overwash that depends on coastal dune elevations. Predicting dune height is intrinsically important to assess future storm vulnerability. Here, we enhance shoreline-change predictions by including dune height as a vari- able in a statistical modeling approach. Dune height can also be used as an input variable, but it does not improve the shoreline-change prediction skill. Dune-height input does help to reduce prediction uncer- tainty. That is, by including dune height, the prediction is more precise but not more accurate. Comparing hindcast evaluations, better predictive skill was found when predicting dune height (0.8) compared with shoreline change (0.6). The skill depends on the level of detail of the model and we identify an optimized model that has high skill and minimal overfitting. The predictive model can be implemented with a range of forecast scenarios, and we illustrate the impacts of a higher future sea-level. This scenario shows that the shoreline change becomes increasingly erosional and more uncertain. Predicted dune heights are lower and the dune height uncertainty decreases.

  10. Afrika Statistika ISSN 2316-090X A Bayesian significance test of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    of the generalized likelihood ratio test to detect a change in binomial ... computational simplicity to the problem of calculating posterior marginals. ... the impact of a single outlier on the performance of the Bayesian significance test of change.

  11. Bayesian Processing for the Detection of Radioactive Contraband from Uncertain Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candy, J V; Sale, K; Guidry, B; Breitfeller, E; Manatt, D; Chambers, D

    2007-06-26

    With the increase in terrorist activities throughout the world, the need to develop techniques capable of detecting radioactive contraband in a timely manner is a critical requirement. The development of Bayesian processors for the detection of contraband stems from the fact that the posterior distribution is clearly multimodal eliminating the usual Gaussian-based processors. The development of a sequential bootstrap processor for this problem is discussed and shown how it is capable of providing an enhanced signal for eventual detection.

  12. Sequential versus simultaneous market delineation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haldrup, Niels; Møllgaard, Peter; Kastberg Nielsen, Claus

    2005-01-01

    and geographical markets. Using a unique data setfor prices of Norwegian and Scottish salmon, we propose a methodologyfor simultaneous market delineation and we demonstrate that comparedto a sequential approach conclusions will be reversed.JEL: C3, K21, L41, Q22Keywords: Relevant market, econometric delineation......Delineation of the relevant market forms a pivotal part of most antitrustcases. The standard approach is sequential. First the product marketis delineated, then the geographical market is defined. Demand andsupply substitution in both the product dimension and the geographicaldimension...

  13. Sequential logic analysis and synthesis

    CERN Document Server

    Cavanagh, Joseph

    2007-01-01

    Until now, there was no single resource for actual digital system design. Using both basic and advanced concepts, Sequential Logic: Analysis and Synthesis offers a thorough exposition of the analysis and synthesis of both synchronous and asynchronous sequential machines. With 25 years of experience in designing computing equipment, the author stresses the practical design of state machines. He clearly delineates each step of the structured and rigorous design principles that can be applied to practical applications. The book begins by reviewing the analysis of combinatorial logic and Boolean a

  14. Defining Biological Networks for Noise Buffering and Signaling Sensitivity Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuqiang Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliable information processing in cells requires high sensitivity to changes in the input signal but low sensitivity to random fluctuations in the transmitted signal. There are often many alternative biological circuits qualifying for this biological function. Distinguishing theses biological models and finding the most suitable one are essential, as such model ranking, by experimental evidence, will help to judge the support of the working hypotheses forming each model. Here, we employ the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC method based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC to search for biological circuits that can maintain signaling sensitivity while minimizing noise propagation, focusing on cases where the noise is characterized by rapid fluctuations. By systematically analyzing three-component circuits, we rank these biological circuits and identify three-basic-biological-motif buffering noise while maintaining sensitivity to long-term changes in input signals. We discuss in detail a particular implementation in control of nutrient homeostasis in yeast. The principal component analysis of the posterior provides insight into the nature of the reaction between nodes.

  15. Bayesian seismic AVO inversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buland, Arild

    2002-07-01

    A new linearized AVO inversion technique is developed in a Bayesian framework. The objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity and density. Distributions for other elastic parameters can also be assessed, for example acoustic impedance, shear impedance and P-wave to S-wave velocity ratio. The inversion algorithm is based on the convolutional model and a linearized weak contrast approximation of the Zoeppritz equation. The solution is represented by a Gaussian posterior distribution with explicit expressions for the posterior expectation and covariance, hence exact prediction intervals for the inverted parameters can be computed under the specified model. The explicit analytical form of the posterior distribution provides a computationally fast inversion method. Tests on synthetic data show that all inverted parameters were almost perfectly retrieved when the noise approached zero. With realistic noise levels, acoustic impedance was the best determined parameter, while the inversion provided practically no information about the density. The inversion algorithm has also been tested on a real 3-D dataset from the Sleipner Field. The results show good agreement with well logs but the uncertainty is high. The stochastic model includes uncertainties of both the elastic parameters, the wavelet and the seismic and well log data. The posterior distribution is explored by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. The inversion algorithm has been tested on a seismic line from the Heidrun Field with two wells located on the line. The uncertainty of the estimated wavelet is low. In the Heidrun examples the effect of including uncertainty of the wavelet and the noise level was marginal with respect to the AVO inversion results. We have developed a 3-D linearized AVO inversion method with spatially coupled model parameters where the objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S

  16. SHORT-TERM SOLAR FLARE LEVEL PREDICTION USING A BAYESIAN NETWORK APPROACH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Daren; Huang Xin; Hu Qinghua; Zhou Rui; Wang Huaning; Cui Yanmei

    2010-01-01

    A Bayesian network approach for short-term solar flare level prediction has been proposed based on three sequences of photospheric magnetic field parameters extracted from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager longitudinal magnetograms. The magnetic measures, the maximum horizontal gradient, the length of neutral line, and the number of singular points do not have determinate relationships with solar flares, so the solar flare level prediction is considered as an uncertainty reasoning process modeled by the Bayesian network. The qualitative network structure which describes conditional independent relationships among magnetic field parameters and the quantitative conditional probability tables which determine the probabilistic values for each variable are learned from the data set. Seven sequential features-the maximum, the mean, the root mean square, the standard deviation, the shape factor, the crest factor, and the pulse factor-are extracted to reduce the dimensions of the raw sequences. Two Bayesian network models are built using raw sequential data (BN R ) and feature extracted data (BN F ), respectively. The explanations of these models are consistent with physical analyses of experts. The performances of the BN R and the BN F appear comparable with other methods. More importantly, the comprehensibility of the Bayesian network models is better than other methods.

  17. Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuelin; Lord-Bessen, Jennifer; Shiyko, Mariya; Loeb, Rebecca

    2018-01-01

    This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles. Technical difficulties are addressed by a hypothetical, worked-out example. We show how Bayesian computation can be broken down into a series of simpler calculations, which can then be assembled together to complete a computationally more complex model. The details are described much more explicitly than what is typically available in elementary introductions to Bayesian modeling so that readers are not overwhelmed by the mathematics. Moreover, the provided computer program shows how Bayesian LCA can be implemented with relative ease. The computer program is then applied in a large, real-world data set and explained line-by-line. We outline the general steps in how to extend these considerations to other methodological applications. We conclude with suggestions for further readings.

  18. Kernel Bayesian ART and ARTMAP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuyama, Naoki; Loo, Chu Kiong; Dawood, Farhan

    2018-02-01

    Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) is one of the successful approaches to resolving "the plasticity-stability dilemma" in neural networks, and its supervised learning model called ARTMAP is a powerful tool for classification. Among several improvements, such as Fuzzy or Gaussian based models, the state of art model is Bayesian based one, while solving the drawbacks of others. However, it is known that the Bayesian approach for the high dimensional and a large number of data requires high computational cost, and the covariance matrix in likelihood becomes unstable. This paper introduces Kernel Bayesian ART (KBA) and ARTMAP (KBAM) by integrating Kernel Bayes' Rule (KBR) and Correntropy Induced Metric (CIM) to Bayesian ART (BA) and ARTMAP (BAM), respectively, while maintaining the properties of BA and BAM. The kernel frameworks in KBA and KBAM are able to avoid the curse of dimensionality. In addition, the covariance-free Bayesian computation by KBR provides the efficient and stable computational capability to KBA and KBAM. Furthermore, Correntropy-based similarity measurement allows improving the noise reduction ability even in the high dimensional space. The simulation experiments show that KBA performs an outstanding self-organizing capability than BA, and KBAM provides the superior classification ability than BAM, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuan Guo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM, Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM, and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM, and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

  20. Evaluation Using Sequential Trials Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Mark E.; Ralls, Stephen A.

    1986-01-01

    Although dental school faculty as well as practitioners are interested in evaluating products and procedures used in clinical practice, research design and statistical analysis can sometimes pose problems. Sequential trials methods provide an analytical structure that is both easy to use and statistically valid. (Author/MLW)

  1. Attack Trees with Sequential Conjunction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jhawar, Ravi; Kordy, Barbara; Mauw, Sjouke; Radomirović, Sasa; Trujillo-Rasua, Rolando

    2015-01-01

    We provide the first formal foundation of SAND attack trees which are a popular extension of the well-known attack trees. The SAND at- tack tree formalism increases the expressivity of attack trees by intro- ducing the sequential conjunctive operator SAND. This operator enables the modeling of

  2. Interactive Instruction in Bayesian Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Azam; Breslav, Simon; Hornbæk, Kasper

    2018-01-01

    An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction. These pri......An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction....... These principles concern coherence, personalization, signaling, segmenting, multimedia, spatial contiguity, and pretraining. Principles of self-explanation and interactivity are also applied. Four experiments on the Mammography Problem showed that these principles help participants answer the questions...... that an instructional approach to improving human performance in Bayesian inference is a promising direction....

  3. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre; C. R. Martins

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  4. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  5. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  6. Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming; Zhang, Jian

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly

  7. Bayesian Network Induction via Local Neighborhoods

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Margaritis, Dimitris

    1999-01-01

    .... We present an efficient algorithm for learning Bayesian networks from data. Our approach constructs Bayesian networks by first identifying each node's Markov blankets, then connecting nodes in a consistent way...

  8. Can a significance test be genuinely Bayesian?

    OpenAIRE

    Pereira, Carlos A. de B.; Stern, Julio Michael; Wechsler, Sergio

    2008-01-01

    The Full Bayesian Significance Test, FBST, is extensively reviewed. Its test statistic, a genuine Bayesian measure of evidence, is discussed in detail. Its behavior in some problems of statistical inference like testing for independence in contingency tables is discussed.

  9. Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS

    CERN Document Server

    Ntzoufras, Ioannis

    2009-01-01

    A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...

  10. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas D.; Rumi, Rafael; Salmeron, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability techniques (like fault trees and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (the so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability.

  11. 3D Bayesian contextual classifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Rasmus

    2000-01-01

    We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours.......We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours....

  12. Bayesian methods for proteomic biomarker development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belinda Hernández

    2015-12-01

    In this review we provide an introduction to Bayesian inference and demonstrate some of the advantages of using a Bayesian framework. We summarize how Bayesian methods have been used previously in proteomics and other areas of bioinformatics. Finally, we describe some popular and emerging Bayesian models from the statistical literature and provide a worked tutorial including code snippets to show how these methods may be applied for the evaluation of proteomic biomarkers.

  13. Bayesian networks and food security - An introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, A.

    2004-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to Bayesian networks. Networks are defined and put into a Bayesian context. Directed acyclical graphs play a crucial role here. Two simple examples from food security are addressed. Possible uses of Bayesian networks for implementation and further use in decision

  14. Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner

    2003-01-01

    been shown to be quite suitable for dynamic domains as well. However, processing object oriented Bayesian networks in practice does not take advantage of their modular structure. Normally the object oriented Bayesian network is transformed into a Bayesian network and, inference is performed...... dynamic domains. The communication needed between instances is achieved by means of a fill-in propagation scheme....

  15. A Bayesian framework for risk perception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Erp, H.R.N.

    2017-01-01

    We present here a Bayesian framework of risk perception. This framework encompasses plausibility judgments, decision making, and question asking. Plausibility judgments are modeled by way of Bayesian probability theory, decision making is modeled by way of a Bayesian decision theory, and relevancy

  16. Multi-agent sequential hypothesis testing

    KAUST Repository

    Kim, Kwang-Ki K.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2014-01-01

    incorporate costs of taking private/public measurements, costs of time-difference and disagreement in actions of agents, and costs of false declaration/choices in the sequential hypothesis testing. The corresponding sequential decision processes have well

  17. Bayesian NL interpretation and learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeevat, H.

    2011-01-01

    Everyday natural language communication is normally successful, even though contemporary computational linguistics has shown that NL is characterised by very high degree of ambiguity and the results of stochastic methods are not good enough to explain the high success rate. Bayesian natural language

  18. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

    configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...

  19. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Linda

    2006-01-01

    configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for the salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...

  20. Differentiated Bayesian Conjoint Choice Designs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Z. Sándor (Zsolt); M. Wedel (Michel)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractPrevious conjoint choice design construction procedures have produced a single design that is administered to all subjects. This paper proposes to construct a limited set of different designs. The designs are constructed in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account prior uncertainty about

  1. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

    Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...

  2. Bayesian Sampling using Condition Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael H.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2002-01-01

    of condition indicators introduced by Benjamin and Cornell (1970) a Bayesian approach to quality control is formulated. The formulation is then extended to the case where the quality control is based on sampling of indirect information about the condition of the components, i.e. condition indicators...

  3. Bayesian Classification of Image Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goswami, Dibyendu; Kalkan, Sinan; Krüger, Norbert

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we describe work on Bayesian classi ers for distinguishing between homogeneous structures, textures, edges and junctions. We build semi-local classiers from hand-labeled images to distinguish between these four different kinds of structures based on the concept of intrinsic dimensi...

  4. Bayesian estimates of linkage disequilibrium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abad-Grau María M

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The maximum likelihood estimator of D' – a standard measure of linkage disequilibrium – is biased toward disequilibrium, and the bias is particularly evident in small samples and rare haplotypes. Results This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation of D' to address this problem. The reduction of the bias is achieved by using a prior distribution on the pair-wise associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs that increases the likelihood of equilibrium with increasing physical distances between pairs of SNPs. We show how to compute the Bayesian estimate using a stochastic estimation based on MCMC methods, and also propose a numerical approximation to the Bayesian estimates that can be used to estimate patterns of LD in large datasets of SNPs. Conclusion Our Bayesian estimator of D' corrects the bias toward disequilibrium that affects the maximum likelihood estimator. A consequence of this feature is a more objective view about the extent of linkage disequilibrium in the human genome, and a more realistic number of tagging SNPs to fully exploit the power of genome wide association studies.

  5. 3-D contextual Bayesian classifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Rasmus

    In this paper we will consider extensions of a series of Bayesian 2-D contextual classification pocedures proposed by Owen (1984) Hjort & Mohn (1984) and Welch & Salter (1971) and Haslett (1985) to 3 spatial dimensions. It is evident that compared to classical pixelwise classification further...

  6. Robustness of the Sequential Lineup Advantage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronlund, Scott D.; Carlson, Curt A.; Dailey, Sarah B.; Goodsell, Charles A.

    2009-01-01

    A growing movement in the United States and around the world involves promoting the advantages of conducting an eyewitness lineup in a sequential manner. We conducted a large study (N = 2,529) that included 24 comparisons of sequential versus simultaneous lineups. A liberal statistical criterion revealed only 2 significant sequential lineup…

  7. Sequential Probability Ration Tests : Conservative and Robust

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Shi, Wen

    2017-01-01

    In practice, most computers generate simulation outputs sequentially, so it is attractive to analyze these outputs through sequential statistical methods such as sequential probability ratio tests (SPRTs). We investigate several SPRTs for choosing between two hypothesized values for the mean output

  8. Random sequential adsorption of cubes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cieśla, Michał; Kubala, Piotr

    2018-01-01

    Random packings built of cubes are studied numerically using a random sequential adsorption algorithm. To compare the obtained results with previous reports, three different models of cube orientation sampling were used. Also, three different cube-cube intersection algorithms were tested to find the most efficient one. The study focuses on the mean saturated packing fraction as well as kinetics of packing growth. Microstructural properties of packings were analyzed using density autocorrelation function.

  9. Bayesian Alternation During Tactile Augmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caspar Mathias Goeke

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition, rotation only (native condition, and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition. Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants’ responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND. Then we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred2 = 1.67 than the Bayesian integration model (χred2= 4.34. Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all model (χred2= 1.64, which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred2= 1.09 utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in

  10. Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutihac, R.; Cicuttin, A.; Cerdeira, A.; Stanciulescu, C.

    1998-12-01

    Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)

  11. Bayesian analysis of rare events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Straub, Daniel, E-mail: straub@tum.de; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

    2016-06-01

    In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

  12. tgp: An R Package for Bayesian Nonstationary, Semiparametric Nonlinear Regression and Design by Treed Gaussian Process Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert B. Gramacy

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The tgp package for R is a tool for fully Bayesian nonstationary, semiparametric nonlinear regression and design by treed Gaussian processes with jumps to the limiting linear model. Special cases also implemented include Bayesian linear models, linear CART, stationary separable and isotropic Gaussian processes. In addition to inference and posterior prediction, the package supports the (sequential design of experiments under these models paired with several objective criteria. 1-d and 2-d plotting, with higher dimension projection and slice capabilities, and tree drawing functions (requiring maptree and combinat packages, are also provided for visualization of tgp objects.

  13. Human visual system automatically encodes sequential regularities of discrete events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimura, Motohiro; Schröger, Erich; Czigler, István; Ohira, Hideki

    2010-06-01

    For our adaptive behavior in a dynamically changing environment, an essential task of the brain is to automatically encode sequential regularities inherent in the environment into a memory representation. Recent studies in neuroscience have suggested that sequential regularities embedded in discrete sensory events are automatically encoded into a memory representation at the level of the sensory system. This notion is largely supported by evidence from investigations using auditory mismatch negativity (auditory MMN), an event-related brain potential (ERP) correlate of an automatic memory-mismatch process in the auditory sensory system. However, it is still largely unclear whether or not this notion can be generalized to other sensory modalities. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the contribution of the visual sensory system to the automatic encoding of sequential regularities using visual mismatch negativity (visual MMN), an ERP correlate of an automatic memory-mismatch process in the visual sensory system. To this end, we conducted a sequential analysis of visual MMN in an oddball sequence consisting of infrequent deviant and frequent standard stimuli, and tested whether the underlying memory representation of visual MMN generation contains only a sensory memory trace of standard stimuli (trace-mismatch hypothesis) or whether it also contains sequential regularities extracted from the repetitive standard sequence (regularity-violation hypothesis). The results showed that visual MMN was elicited by first deviant (deviant stimuli following at least one standard stimulus), second deviant (deviant stimuli immediately following first deviant), and first standard (standard stimuli immediately following first deviant), but not by second standard (standard stimuli immediately following first standard). These results are consistent with the regularity-violation hypothesis, suggesting that the visual sensory system automatically encodes sequential

  14. Adaptive Naive Bayesian Anti-Spam Engine

    CERN Document Server

    Gajewski, W P

    2006-01-01

    The problem of spam has been seriously troubling the Internet community during the last few years and currently reached an alarming scale. Observations made at CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research located in Geneva, Switzerland) show that spam mails can constitute up to 75% of daily SMTP traffic. A naïve Bayesian classifier based on a Bag of Words representation of an email is widely used to stop this unwanted flood as it combines good performance with simplicity of the training and classification processes. However, facing the constantly changing patterns of spam, it is necessary to assure online adaptability of the classifier. This work proposes combining such a classifier with another NBC (naïve Bayesian classifier) based on pairs of adjacent words. Only the latter will be retrained with examples of spam reported by users. Tests are performed on considerable sets of mails both from public spam archives and CERN mailboxes. They suggest that this architecture can increase spam recall without af...

  15. Sparse Bayesian Learning for Nonstationary Data Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujimaki, Ryohei; Yairi, Takehisa; Machida, Kazuo

    This paper proposes an online Sparse Bayesian Learning (SBL) algorithm for modeling nonstationary data sources. Although most learning algorithms implicitly assume that a data source does not change over time (stationary), one in the real world usually does due to such various factors as dynamically changing environments, device degradation, sudden failures, etc (nonstationary). The proposed algorithm can be made useable for stationary online SBL by setting time decay parameters to zero, and as such it can be interpreted as a single unified framework for online SBL for use with stationary and nonstationary data sources. Tests both on four types of benchmark problems and on actual stock price data have shown it to perform well.

  16. Bayesian tomography by interacting Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romary, T.

    2017-12-01

    In seismic tomography, we seek to determine the velocity of the undergound from noisy first arrival travel time observations. In most situations, this is an ill posed inverse problem that admits several unperfect solutions. Given an a priori distribution over the parameters of the velocity model, the Bayesian formulation allows to state this problem as a probabilistic one, with a solution under the form of a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution is generally high dimensional and may exhibit multimodality. Moreover, as it is known only up to a constant, the only sensible way to addressthis problem is to try to generate simulations from the posterior. The natural tools to perform these simulations are Monte Carlo Markov chains (MCMC). Classical implementations of MCMC algorithms generally suffer from slow mixing: the generated states are slow to enter the stationary regime, that is to fit the observations, and when one mode of the posterior is eventually identified, it may become difficult to visit others. Using a varying temperature parameter relaxing the constraint on the data may help to enter the stationary regime. Besides, the sequential nature of MCMC makes them ill fitted toparallel implementation. Running a large number of chains in parallel may be suboptimal as the information gathered by each chain is not mutualized. Parallel tempering (PT) can be seen as a first attempt to make parallel chains at different temperatures communicate but only exchange information between current states. In this talk, I will show that PT actually belongs to a general class of interacting Markov chains algorithm. I will also show that this class enables to design interacting schemes that can take advantage of the whole history of the chain, by authorizing exchanges toward already visited states. The algorithms will be illustrated with toy examples and an application to first arrival traveltime tomography.

  17. Frequency offset estimation in OFDM systems using Bayesian filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yihua

    2011-10-01

    Orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) is sensitive to carrier frequency offset (CFO) that causes inter-carrier interference (ICI). In this paper, we present two schemes for the CFO estimation, which are based on rejection sampling (RS) and a form of particle filtering (PF) called kernel smoothing technique, respectively. The first scheme is offline estimation, where the observations contained in the OFDM training symbol are treated in the batch mode. The second scheme is online estimation, where the observations in the OFDM training symbol are treated in the sequential manner. Simulations are provided to illustrate the performances of the schemes. Performance comparisons of the two schemes and with other Bayesian methods are provided. Simulation results show that the two schemes are effective when estimating the CFO and can effectively combat the effect of ICI in OFDM systems.

  18. Recursive Bayesian recurrent neural networks for time-series modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirikitani, Derrick T; Nikolaev, Nikolay

    2010-02-01

    This paper develops a probabilistic approach to recursive second-order training of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for improved time-series modeling. A general recursive Bayesian Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is derived to sequentially update the weights and the covariance (Hessian) matrix. The main strengths of the approach are a principled handling of the regularization hyperparameters that leads to better generalization, and stable numerical performance. The framework involves the adaptation of a noise hyperparameter and local weight prior hyperparameters, which represent the noise in the data and the uncertainties in the model parameters. Experimental investigations using artificial and real-world data sets show that RNNs equipped with the proposed approach outperform standard real-time recurrent learning and extended Kalman training algorithms for recurrent networks, as well as other contemporary nonlinear neural models, on time-series modeling.

  19. Fast Bayesian Inference in Dirichlet Process Mixture Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lianming; Dunson, David B

    2011-01-01

    There has been increasing interest in applying Bayesian nonparametric methods in large samples and high dimensions. As Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often infeasible, there is a pressing need for much faster algorithms. This article proposes a fast approach for inference in Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) models. Viewing the partitioning of subjects into clusters as a model selection problem, we propose a sequential greedy search algorithm for selecting the partition. Then, when conjugate priors are chosen, the resulting posterior conditionally on the selected partition is available in closed form. This approach allows testing of parametric models versus nonparametric alternatives based on Bayes factors. We evaluate the approach using simulation studies and compare it with four other fast nonparametric methods in the literature. We apply the proposed approach to three datasets including one from a large epidemiologic study. Matlab codes for the simulation and data analyses using the proposed approach are available online in the supplemental materials.

  20. What determines the impact of context on sequential action?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruitenberg, M.F.L.; Verwey, Willem B.; Abrahamse, E.L.

    2015-01-01

    In the current study we build on earlier observations that memory-based sequential action is better in the original learning context than in other contexts. We examined whether changes in the perceptual context have differential impact across distinct processing phases (preparation versus execution

  1. Bayesian estimation methods in metrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, M.G.; Forbes, A.B.; Harris, P.M.

    2004-01-01

    In metrology -- the science of measurement -- a measurement result must be accompanied by a statement of its associated uncertainty. The degree of validity of a measurement result is determined by the validity of the uncertainty statement. In recognition of the importance of uncertainty evaluation, the International Standardization Organization in 1995 published the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement and the Guide has been widely adopted. The validity of uncertainty statements is tested in interlaboratory comparisons in which an artefact is measured by a number of laboratories and their measurement results compared. Since the introduction of the Mutual Recognition Arrangement, key comparisons are being undertaken to determine the degree of equivalence of laboratories for particular measurement tasks. In this paper, we discuss the possible development of the Guide to reflect Bayesian approaches and the evaluation of key comparison data using Bayesian estimation methods

  2. Deep Learning and Bayesian Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prosper Harrison B.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A revolution is underway in which deep neural networks are routinely used to solve diffcult problems such as face recognition and natural language understanding. Particle physicists have taken notice and have started to deploy these methods, achieving results that suggest a potentially significant shift in how data might be analyzed in the not too distant future. We discuss a few recent developments in the application of deep neural networks and then indulge in speculation about how such methods might be used to automate certain aspects of data analysis in particle physics. Next, the connection to Bayesian methods is discussed and the paper ends with thoughts on a significant practical issue, namely, how, from a Bayesian perspective, one might optimize the construction of deep neural networks.

  3. Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello

    Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.

  4. BAYESIAN IMAGE RESTORATION, USING CONFIGURATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed in detail for 3 X 3 and 5 X 5 configurations and examples of the performance of the procedure are given.

  5. Sparse linear models: Variational approximate inference and Bayesian experimental design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seeger, Matthias W

    2009-01-01

    A wide range of problems such as signal reconstruction, denoising, source separation, feature selection, and graphical model search are addressed today by posterior maximization for linear models with sparsity-favouring prior distributions. The Bayesian posterior contains useful information far beyond its mode, which can be used to drive methods for sampling optimization (active learning), feature relevance ranking, or hyperparameter estimation, if only this representation of uncertainty can be approximated in a tractable manner. In this paper, we review recent results for variational sparse inference, and show that they share underlying computational primitives. We discuss how sampling optimization can be implemented as sequential Bayesian experimental design. While there has been tremendous recent activity to develop sparse estimation, little attendance has been given to sparse approximate inference. In this paper, we argue that many problems in practice, such as compressive sensing for real-world image reconstruction, are served much better by proper uncertainty approximations than by ever more aggressive sparse estimation algorithms. Moreover, since some variational inference methods have been given strong convex optimization characterizations recently, theoretical analysis may become possible, promising new insights into nonlinear experimental design.

  6. Sparse linear models: Variational approximate inference and Bayesian experimental design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seeger, Matthias W [Saarland University and Max Planck Institute for Informatics, Campus E1.4, 66123 Saarbruecken (Germany)

    2009-12-01

    A wide range of problems such as signal reconstruction, denoising, source separation, feature selection, and graphical model search are addressed today by posterior maximization for linear models with sparsity-favouring prior distributions. The Bayesian posterior contains useful information far beyond its mode, which can be used to drive methods for sampling optimization (active learning), feature relevance ranking, or hyperparameter estimation, if only this representation of uncertainty can be approximated in a tractable manner. In this paper, we review recent results for variational sparse inference, and show that they share underlying computational primitives. We discuss how sampling optimization can be implemented as sequential Bayesian experimental design. While there has been tremendous recent activity to develop sparse estimation, little attendance has been given to sparse approximate inference. In this paper, we argue that many problems in practice, such as compressive sensing for real-world image reconstruction, are served much better by proper uncertainty approximations than by ever more aggressive sparse estimation algorithms. Moreover, since some variational inference methods have been given strong convex optimization characterizations recently, theoretical analysis may become possible, promising new insights into nonlinear experimental design.

  7. Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores

  8. Multiview Bayesian Correlated Component Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamronn, Simon Due; Poulsen, Andreas Trier; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2015-01-01

    are identical. Here we propose a hierarchical probabilistic model that can infer the level of universality in such multiview data, from completely unrelated representations, corresponding to canonical correlation analysis, to identical representations as in correlated component analysis. This new model, which...... we denote Bayesian correlated component analysis, evaluates favorably against three relevant algorithms in simulated data. A well-established benchmark EEG data set is used to further validate the new model and infer the variability of spatial representations across multiple subjects....

  9. A Bayesian CUSUM plot: Diagnosing quality of treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosthøj, Steen; Jacobsen, Rikke-Line

    2017-12-01

    To present a CUSUM plot based on Bayesian diagnostic reasoning displaying evidence in favour of "healthy" rather than "sick" quality of treatment (QOT), and to demonstrate a technique using Kaplan-Meier survival curves permitting application to case series with ongoing follow-up. For a case series with known final outcomes: Consider each case a diagnostic test of good versus poor QOT (expected vs. increased failure rates), determine the likelihood ratio (LR) of the observed outcome, convert LR to weight taking log to base 2, and add up weights sequentially in a plot showing how many times odds in favour of good QOT have been doubled. For a series with observed survival times and an expected survival curve: Divide the curve into time intervals, determine "healthy" and specify "sick" risks of failure in each interval, construct a "sick" survival curve, determine the LR of survival or failure at the given observation times, convert to weights, and add up. The Bayesian plot was applied retrospectively to 39 children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia with completed follow-up, using Nordic collaborative results as reference, showing equal odds between good and poor QOT. In the ongoing treatment trial, with 22 of 37 children still at risk for event, QOT has been monitored with average survival curves as reference, odds so far favoring good QOT 2:1. QOT in small patient series can be assessed with a Bayesian CUSUM plot, retrospectively when all treatment outcomes are known, but also in ongoing series with unfinished follow-up. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. The Approximate Bayesian Computation methods in the localization of the atmospheric contamination source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopka, P; Wawrzynczak, A; Borysiewicz, M

    2015-01-01

    In many areas of application, a central problem is a solution to the inverse problem, especially estimation of the unknown model parameters to model the underlying dynamics of a physical system precisely. In this situation, the Bayesian inference is a powerful tool to combine observed data with prior knowledge to gain the probability distribution of searched parameters. We have applied the modern methodology named Sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation (S-ABC) to the problem of tracing the atmospheric contaminant source. The ABC is technique commonly used in the Bayesian analysis of complex models and dynamic system. Sequential methods can significantly increase the efficiency of the ABC. In the presented algorithm, the input data are the on-line arriving concentrations of released substance registered by distributed sensor network from OVER-LAND ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION (OLAD) experiment. The algorithm output are the probability distributions of a contamination source parameters i.e. its particular location, release rate, speed and direction of the movement, start time and duration. The stochastic approach presented in this paper is completely general and can be used in other fields where the parameters of the model bet fitted to the observable data should be found. (paper)

  11. Sequential Therapy in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradford R Hirsch

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC has changed dramatically in the past decade. As the number of available agents, and related volume of research, has grown, it is increasingly complex to know how to optimally treat patients. The authors are practicing medical oncologists at the US Oncology Network, the largest community-based network of oncology providers in the country, and represent the leadership of the Network's Genitourinary Research Committee. We outline our thought process in approaching sequential therapy of mRCC and the use of real-world data to inform our approach. We also highlight the evolving literature that will impact practicing oncologists in the near future.

  12. Sequential series for nuclear reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Izumo, Ko

    1975-01-01

    A new time-dependent treatment of nuclear reactions is given, in which the wave function of compound nucleus is expanded by a sequential series of the reaction processes. The wave functions of the sequential series form another complete set of compound nucleus at the limit Δt→0. It is pointed out that the wave function is characterized by the quantities: the number of degrees of freedom of motion n, the period of the motion (Poincare cycle) tsub(n), the delay time t sub(nμ) and the relaxation time tausub(n) to the equilibrium of compound nucleus, instead of the usual quantum number lambda, the energy eigenvalue Esub(lambda) and the total width GAMMAsub(lambda) of resonance levels, respectively. The transition matrix elements and the yields of nuclear reactions also become the functions of time given by the Fourier transform of the usual ones. The Poincare cycles of compound nuclei are compared with the observed correlations among resonance levels, which are about 10 -17 --10 -16 sec for medium and heavy nuclei and about 10 -20 sec for the intermediate resonances. (auth.)

  13. Sequential estimation and diffusion of information over networks: A Bayesian approach with exponential family of distributions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dedecius, Kamil; Djurić, P. M.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 65, č. 7 (2017), s. 1795-1809 ISSN 1053-587X R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GP14-06678P Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : diffusion network * diffusion estimation * adaptation * combination * exponential family Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information OBOR OECD: Applied mathematics Impact factor: 4.300, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/dedecius-0467560.pdf

  14. 12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo

    2015-01-01

    Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...

  15. Bayesian molecular dating: opening up the black box.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromham, Lindell; Duchêne, Sebastián; Hua, Xia; Ritchie, Andrew M; Duchêne, David A; Ho, Simon Y W

    2018-05-01

    Molecular dating analyses allow evolutionary timescales to be estimated from genetic data, offering an unprecedented capacity for investigating the evolutionary past of all species. These methods require us to make assumptions about the relationship between genetic change and evolutionary time, often referred to as a 'molecular clock'. Although initially regarded with scepticism, molecular dating has now been adopted in many areas of biology. This broad uptake has been due partly to the development of Bayesian methods that allow complex aspects of molecular evolution, such as variation in rates of change across lineages, to be taken into account. But in order to do this, Bayesian dating methods rely on a range of assumptions about the evolutionary process, which vary in their degree of biological realism and empirical support. These assumptions can have substantial impacts on the estimates produced by molecular dating analyses. The aim of this review is to open the 'black box' of Bayesian molecular dating and have a look at the machinery inside. We explain the components of these dating methods, the important decisions that researchers must make in their analyses, and the factors that need to be considered when interpreting results. We illustrate the effects that the choices of different models and priors can have on the outcome of the analysis, and suggest ways to explore these impacts. We describe some major research directions that may improve the reliability of Bayesian dating. The goal of our review is to help researchers to make informed choices when using Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate evolutionary rates and timescales. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  16. Exploring the sequential lineup advantage using WITNESS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodsell, Charles A; Gronlund, Scott D; Carlson, Curt A

    2010-12-01

    Advocates claim that the sequential lineup is an improvement over simultaneous lineup procedures, but no formal (quantitatively specified) explanation exists for why it is better. The computational model WITNESS (Clark, Appl Cogn Psychol 17:629-654, 2003) was used to develop theoretical explanations for the sequential lineup advantage. In its current form, WITNESS produced a sequential advantage only by pairing conservative sequential choosing with liberal simultaneous choosing. However, this combination failed to approximate four extant experiments that exhibited large sequential advantages. Two of these experiments became the focus of our efforts because the data were uncontaminated by likely suspect position effects. Decision-based and memory-based modifications to WITNESS approximated the data and produced a sequential advantage. The next step is to evaluate the proposed explanations and modify public policy recommendations accordingly.

  17. General and Local: Averaged k-Dependence Bayesian Classifiers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Limin Wang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The inference of a general Bayesian network has been shown to be an NP-hard problem, even for approximate solutions. Although k-dependence Bayesian (KDB classifier can construct at arbitrary points (values of k along the attribute dependence spectrum, it cannot identify the changes of interdependencies when attributes take different values. Local KDB, which learns in the framework of KDB, is proposed in this study to describe the local dependencies implicated in each test instance. Based on the analysis of functional dependencies, substitution-elimination resolution, a new type of semi-naive Bayesian operation, is proposed to substitute or eliminate generalization to achieve accurate estimation of conditional probability distribution while reducing computational complexity. The final classifier, averaged k-dependence Bayesian (AKDB classifiers, will average the output of KDB and local KDB. Experimental results on the repository of machine learning databases from the University of California Irvine (UCI showed that AKDB has significant advantages in zero-one loss and bias relative to naive Bayes (NB, tree augmented naive Bayes (TAN, Averaged one-dependence estimators (AODE, and KDB. Moreover, KDB and local KDB show mutually complementary characteristics with respect to variance.

  18. Development of dynamic Bayesian models for web application test management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azarnova, T. V.; Polukhin, P. V.; Bondarenko, Yu V.; Kashirina, I. L.

    2018-03-01

    The mathematical apparatus of dynamic Bayesian networks is an effective and technically proven tool that can be used to model complex stochastic dynamic processes. According to the results of the research, mathematical models and methods of dynamic Bayesian networks provide a high coverage of stochastic tasks associated with error testing in multiuser software products operated in a dynamically changing environment. Formalized representation of the discrete test process as a dynamic Bayesian model allows us to organize the logical connection between individual test assets for multiple time slices. This approach gives an opportunity to present testing as a discrete process with set structural components responsible for the generation of test assets. Dynamic Bayesian network-based models allow us to combine in one management area individual units and testing components with different functionalities and a direct influence on each other in the process of comprehensive testing of various groups of computer bugs. The application of the proposed models provides an opportunity to use a consistent approach to formalize test principles and procedures, methods used to treat situational error signs, and methods used to produce analytical conclusions based on test results.

  19. A Bayesian model for binary Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belkheir Essebbar

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available This note is concerned with Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities of a binary Markov chain observed from heterogeneous individuals. The model is founded on the Jeffreys' prior which allows for transition probabilities to be correlated. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC techniques. The performance of the Bayesian estimates is illustrated by analyzing a small simulated data set.

  20. Sequential lineup presentation: Patterns and policy

    OpenAIRE

    Lindsay, R C L; Mansour, Jamal K; Beaudry, J L; Leach, A-M; Bertrand, M I

    2009-01-01

    Sequential lineups were offered as an alternative to the traditional simultaneous lineup. Sequential lineups reduce incorrect lineup selections; however, the accompanying loss of correct identifications has resulted in controversy regarding adoption of the technique. We discuss the procedure and research relevant to (1) the pattern of results found using sequential versus simultaneous lineups; (2) reasons (theory) for differences in witness responses; (3) two methodological issues; and (4) im...

  1. 3rd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

    CERN Document Server

    Lanzarone, Ettore; Villalobos, Isadora; Mattei, Alessandra

    2017-01-01

    This book is a selection of peer-reviewed contributions presented at the third Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM 2016, Florence, Italy, June 19-21. The meeting provided a unique opportunity for young researchers, M.S. students, Ph.D. students, and postdocs dealing with Bayesian statistics to connect with the Bayesian community at large, to exchange ideas, and to network with others working in the same field. The contributions develop and apply Bayesian methods in a variety of fields, ranging from the traditional (e.g., biostatistics and reliability) to the most innovative ones (e.g., big data and networks).

  2. Biased lineups: sequential presentation reduces the problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, R C; Lea, J A; Nosworthy, G J; Fulford, J A; Hector, J; LeVan, V; Seabrook, C

    1991-12-01

    Biased lineups have been shown to increase significantly false, but not correct, identification rates (Lindsay, Wallbridge, & Drennan, 1987; Lindsay & Wells, 1980; Malpass & Devine, 1981). Lindsay and Wells (1985) found that sequential lineup presentation reduced false identification rates, presumably by reducing reliance on relative judgment processes. Five staged-crime experiments were conducted to examine the effect of lineup biases and sequential presentation on eyewitness recognition accuracy. Sequential lineup presentation significantly reduced false identification rates from fair lineups as well as from lineups biased with regard to foil similarity, instructions, or witness attire, and from lineups biased in all of these ways. The results support recommendations that police present lineups sequentially.

  3. Immediate Sequential Bilateral Cataract Surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kessel, Line; Andresen, Jens; Erngaard, Ditte

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present systematic review was to examine the benefits and harms associated with immediate sequential bilateral cataract surgery (ISBCS) with specific emphasis on the rate of complications, postoperative anisometropia, and subjective visual function in order to formulate evidence......-based national Danish guidelines for cataract surgery. A systematic literature review in PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane central databases identified three randomized controlled trials that compared outcome in patients randomized to ISBCS or bilateral cataract surgery on two different dates. Meta-analyses were...... performed using the Cochrane Review Manager software. The quality of the evidence was assessed using the GRADE method (Grading of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation). We did not find any difference in the risk of complications or visual outcome in patients randomized to ISBCS or surgery...

  4. Random and cooperative sequential adsorption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, J. W.

    1993-10-01

    Irreversible random sequential adsorption (RSA) on lattices, and continuum "car parking" analogues, have long received attention as models for reactions on polymer chains, chemisorption on single-crystal surfaces, adsorption in colloidal systems, and solid state transformations. Cooperative generalizations of these models (CSA) are sometimes more appropriate, and can exhibit richer kinetics and spatial structure, e.g., autocatalysis and clustering. The distribution of filled or transformed sites in RSA and CSA is not described by an equilibrium Gibbs measure. This is the case even for the saturation "jammed" state of models where the lattice or space cannot fill completely. However exact analysis is often possible in one dimension, and a variety of powerful analytic methods have been developed for higher dimensional models. Here we review the detailed understanding of asymptotic kinetics, spatial correlations, percolative structure, etc., which is emerging for these far-from-equilibrium processes.

  5. E-commerce System Security Assessment based on Bayesian Network Algorithm Research

    OpenAIRE

    Ting Li; Xin Li

    2013-01-01

    Evaluation of e-commerce network security is based on assessment method Bayesian networks, and it first defines the vulnerability status of e-commerce system evaluation index and the vulnerability of the state model of e-commerce systems, and after the principle of the Bayesian network reliability of e-commerce system and the criticality of the vulnerabilities were analyzed, experiments show that the change method is a good evaluation of the security of e-commerce systems.

  6. Bayesian Methods and Universal Darwinism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, John

    2009-12-01

    Bayesian methods since the time of Laplace have been understood by their practitioners as closely aligned to the scientific method. Indeed a recent Champion of Bayesian methods, E. T. Jaynes, titled his textbook on the subject Probability Theory: the Logic of Science. Many philosophers of science including Karl Popper and Donald Campbell have interpreted the evolution of Science as a Darwinian process consisting of a `copy with selective retention' algorithm abstracted from Darwin's theory of Natural Selection. Arguments are presented for an isomorphism between Bayesian Methods and Darwinian processes. Universal Darwinism, as the term has been developed by Richard Dawkins, Daniel Dennett and Susan Blackmore, is the collection of scientific theories which explain the creation and evolution of their subject matter as due to the Operation of Darwinian processes. These subject matters span the fields of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences. The principle of Maximum Entropy states that Systems will evolve to states of highest entropy subject to the constraints of scientific law. This principle may be inverted to provide illumination as to the nature of scientific law. Our best cosmological theories suggest the universe contained much less complexity during the period shortly after the Big Bang than it does at present. The scientific subject matter of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences has been created since that time. An explanation is proposed for the existence of this subject matter as due to the evolution of constraints in the form of adaptations imposed on Maximum Entropy. It is argued these adaptations were discovered and instantiated through the Operations of a succession of Darwinian processes.

  7. Bayesian phylogeography finds its roots.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Lemey

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available As a key factor in endemic and epidemic dynamics, the geographical distribution of viruses has been frequently interpreted in the light of their genetic histories. Unfortunately, inference of historical dispersal or migration patterns of viruses has mainly been restricted to model-free heuristic approaches that provide little insight into the temporal setting of the spatial dynamics. The introduction of probabilistic models of evolution, however, offers unique opportunities to engage in this statistical endeavor. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, visualization and hypothesis testing of phylogeographic history. By implementing character mapping in a Bayesian software that samples time-scaled phylogenies, we enable the reconstruction of timed viral dispersal patterns while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. Standard Markov model inference is extended with a stochastic search variable selection procedure that identifies the parsimonious descriptions of the diffusion process. In addition, we propose priors that can incorporate geographical sampling distributions or characterize alternative hypotheses about the spatial dynamics. To visualize the spatial and temporal information, we summarize inferences using virtual globe software. We describe how Bayesian phylogeography compares with previous parsimony analysis in the investigation of the influenza A H5N1 origin and H5N1 epidemiological linkage among sampling localities. Analysis of rabies in West African dog populations reveals how virus diffusion may enable endemic maintenance through continuous epidemic cycles. From these analyses, we conclude that our phylogeographic framework will make an important asset in molecular epidemiology that can be easily generalized to infer biogeogeography from genetic data for many organisms.

  8. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  9. Bayesian calibration of simultaneity in audiovisual temporal order judgments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shinya Yamamoto

    Full Text Available After repeated exposures to two successive audiovisual stimuli presented in one frequent order, participants eventually perceive a pair separated by some lag time in the same order as occurring simultaneously (lag adaptation. In contrast, we previously found that perceptual changes occurred in the opposite direction in response to tactile stimuli, conforming to bayesian integration theory (bayesian calibration. We further showed, in theory, that the effect of bayesian calibration cannot be observed when the lag adaptation was fully operational. This led to the hypothesis that bayesian calibration affects judgments regarding the order of audiovisual stimuli, but that this effect is concealed behind the lag adaptation mechanism. In the present study, we showed that lag adaptation is pitch-insensitive using two sounds at 1046 and 1480 Hz. This enabled us to cancel lag adaptation by associating one pitch with sound-first stimuli and the other with light-first stimuli. When we presented each type of stimulus (high- or low-tone in a different block, the point of simultaneity shifted to "sound-first" for the pitch associated with sound-first stimuli, and to "light-first" for the pitch associated with light-first stimuli. These results are consistent with lag adaptation. In contrast, when we delivered each type of stimulus in a randomized order, the point of simultaneity shifted to "light-first" for the pitch associated with sound-first stimuli, and to "sound-first" for the pitch associated with light-first stimuli. The results clearly show that bayesian calibration is pitch-specific and is at work behind pitch-insensitive lag adaptation during temporal order judgment of audiovisual stimuli.

  10. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  11. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    2013-01-01

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  12. Numeracy, frequency, and Bayesian reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gretchen B. Chapman

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has demonstrated that Bayesian reasoning performance is improved if uncertainty information is presented as natural frequencies rather than single-event probabilities. A questionnaire study of 342 college students replicated this effect but also found that the performance-boosting benefits of the natural frequency presentation occurred primarily for participants who scored high in numeracy. This finding suggests that even comprehension and manipulation of natural frequencies requires a certain threshold of numeracy abilities, and that the beneficial effects of natural frequency presentation may not be as general as previously believed.

  13. Neglected chaos in international stock markets: Bayesian analysis of the joint return-volatility dynamical system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsionas, Mike G.; Michaelides, Panayotis G.

    2017-09-01

    We use a novel Bayesian inference procedure for the Lyapunov exponent in the dynamical system of returns and their unobserved volatility. In the dynamical system, computation of largest Lyapunov exponent by traditional methods is impossible as the stochastic nature has to be taken explicitly into account due to unobserved volatility. We apply the new techniques to daily stock return data for a group of six countries, namely USA, UK, Switzerland, Netherlands, Germany and France, from 2003 to 2014, by means of Sequential Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference. The evidence points to the direction that there is indeed noisy chaos both before and after the recent financial crisis. However, when a much simpler model is examined where the interaction between returns and volatility is not taken into consideration jointly, the hypothesis of chaotic dynamics does not receive much support by the data ("neglected chaos").

  14. Experiments for Evaluating Application of Bayesian Inference to Situation Awareness of Human Operators in NPPs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Seongkeun; Seong, Poong Hyun [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    The purpose of this paper is to confirm if Bayesian inference can properly reflect the situation awareness of real human operators, and find the difference between the situation of ideal and practical operators, and investigate the factors which contributes to those difference. As a results, human can not think like computer. If human can memorize all the information, and their thinking process is same to the CPU of computer, the results of these two experiments come out more than 99%. However the probability of finding right malfunction by humans are only 64.52% in simple experiment, and 51.61% in complex experiment. Cognition is the mental processing that includes the attention of working memory, comprehending and producing language, calculating, reasoning, problem solving, and decision making. There are many reasons why human thinking process is different with computer, but in this experiment, we suggest that the working memory is the most important factor. Humans have limited working memory which has only seven chunks capacity. These seven chunks are called magic number. If there are more than seven sequential information, people start to forget the previous information because their working memory capacity is running over. We can check how much working memory affects to the result through the simple experiment. Then what if we neglect the effect of working memory? The total number of subjects who have incorrect memory is 7 (subject 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 15, 25). They could find the right malfunction if the memory hadn't changed because of lack of working memory. Then the probability of find correct malfunction will be increased to 87.10% from 64.52%. Complex experiment has similar result. In this case, eight subjects(1, 5, 8, 9, 15, 17, 18, 30) had changed the memory, and it affects to find the right malfunction. Considering it, then the probability would be (16+8)/31 = 77.42%.

  15. Experiments for Evaluating Application of Bayesian Inference to Situation Awareness of Human Operators in NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Seongkeun; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to confirm if Bayesian inference can properly reflect the situation awareness of real human operators, and find the difference between the situation of ideal and practical operators, and investigate the factors which contributes to those difference. As a results, human can not think like computer. If human can memorize all the information, and their thinking process is same to the CPU of computer, the results of these two experiments come out more than 99%. However the probability of finding right malfunction by humans are only 64.52% in simple experiment, and 51.61% in complex experiment. Cognition is the mental processing that includes the attention of working memory, comprehending and producing language, calculating, reasoning, problem solving, and decision making. There are many reasons why human thinking process is different with computer, but in this experiment, we suggest that the working memory is the most important factor. Humans have limited working memory which has only seven chunks capacity. These seven chunks are called magic number. If there are more than seven sequential information, people start to forget the previous information because their working memory capacity is running over. We can check how much working memory affects to the result through the simple experiment. Then what if we neglect the effect of working memory? The total number of subjects who have incorrect memory is 7 (subject 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 15, 25). They could find the right malfunction if the memory hadn't changed because of lack of working memory. Then the probability of find correct malfunction will be increased to 87.10% from 64.52%. Complex experiment has similar result. In this case, eight subjects(1, 5, 8, 9, 15, 17, 18, 30) had changed the memory, and it affects to find the right malfunction. Considering it, then the probability would be (16+8)/31 = 77.42%

  16. Trial Sequential Methods for Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulinskaya, Elena; Wood, John

    2014-01-01

    Statistical methods for sequential meta-analysis have applications also for the design of new trials. Existing methods are based on group sequential methods developed for single trials and start with the calculation of a required information size. This works satisfactorily within the framework of fixed effects meta-analysis, but conceptual…

  17. Managerial adjustment and its limits: sequential fault in comparative perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávio da Cunha Rezende

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This article focuses on explanations for sequential faults in administrative reform. It deals with the limits of managerial adjustment in an approach that attempts to connect theory and empirical data, articulating three levels of analysis. The first level presents comparative evidence of sequential fault within reforms in national governments through a set of indicators geared toward understanding changes in the role of the state. In light of analyses of a representative set of comparative studies on reform implementation, the second analytical level proceeds to identify four typical mechanisms that are present in explanations on managerial adjustment faults. In this way, we seek to configure an explanatory matrix for theories on sequential fault. Next we discuss the experience of management reform in the Brazilian context, conferring special attention on one of the mechanisms that creates fault: the control dilemma. The major hypotheses that guide our article are that reforms lead to sequential fault and that there are at least four causal mechanisms that produce reforms: a transactions costs involved in producing reforms; b performance legacy; c predominance of fiscal adjustment and d the control dilemma. These mechanisms act separately or in concert, and act to decrease chances for a transformation of State managerial patterns. Major evidence that is analyzed in these articles lend consistency to the general argument that reforms have failed in their attempts to reduce public expenses, alter patterns of resource allocation, reduce the labor force and change the role of the State. Our major conclusion is that reforms fail sequentially and managerial adjustment displays considerable limitations, particularly those of a political nature.

  18. Learning dynamic Bayesian networks with mixed variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard

    This paper considers dynamic Bayesian networks for discrete and continuous variables. We only treat the case, where the distribution of the variables is conditional Gaussian. We show how to learn the parameters and structure of a dynamic Bayesian network and also how the Markov order can be learned...

  19. Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

  20. Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...

  1. Bayesian Decision Theoretical Framework for Clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mo

    2011-01-01

    In this thesis, we establish a novel probabilistic framework for the data clustering problem from the perspective of Bayesian decision theory. The Bayesian decision theory view justifies the important questions: what is a cluster and what a clustering algorithm should optimize. We prove that the spectral clustering (to be specific, the…

  2. Robust Bayesian detection of unmodelled bursts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Searle, Antony C; Sutton, Patrick J; Tinto, Massimo; Woan, Graham

    2008-01-01

    We develop a Bayesian treatment of the problem of detecting unmodelled gravitational wave bursts using the new global network of interferometric detectors. We also compare this Bayesian treatment with existing coherent methods, and demonstrate that the existing methods make implicit assumptions on the distribution of signals that make them sub-optimal for realistic signal populations

  3. Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

  4. Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adam, J.; Adamova, D.; Aggarwal, M. M.; Rinella, G. Aglieri; Agnello, M.; Agrawal, N.; Ahammed, Z.; Ahn, S. U.; Aiola, S.; Akindinov, A.; Alam, S. N.; Albuquerque, D. S. D.; Aleksandrov, D.; Alessandro, B.; Alexandre, D.; Alfaro Molina, R.; Alici, A.; Alkin, A.; Almaraz, J. R. M.; Alme, J.; Alt, T.; Altinpinar, S.; Altsybeev, I.; Alves Garcia Prado, C.; Andrei, C.; Andronic, A.; Anguelov, V.; Anticic, T.; Antinori, F.; Antonioli, P.; Aphecetche, L.; Appelshaeuser, H.; Arcelli, S.; Arnaldi, R.; Arnold, O. W.; Arsene, I. C.; Arslandok, M.; Audurier, B.; Augustinus, A.; Averbeck, R.; Azmi, M. D.; Badala, A.; Baek, Y. W.; Bagnasco, S.; Bailhache, R.; Bala, R.; Balasubramanian, S.; Baldisseri, A.; Baral, R. C.; Barbano, A. M.; Barbera, R.; Barile, F.; Barnafoeldi, G. G.; Barnby, L. S.; Barret, V.; Bartalini, P.; Barth, K.; Bartke, J.; Bartsch, E.; Basile, M.; Bastid, N.; Bathen, B.; Batigne, G.; Camejo, A. Batista; Batyunya, B.; Batzing, P. C.; Bearden, I. G.; Beck, H.; Bedda, C.; Behera, N. K.; Belikov, I.; Bellini, F.; Bello Martinez, H.; Bellwied, R.; Belmont, R.; Belmont-Moreno, E.; Belyaev, V.; Benacek, P.; Bencedi, G.; Beole, S.; Berceanu, I.; Bercuci, A.; Berdnikov, Y.; Berenyi, D.; Bertens, R. A.; Berzano, D.; Betev, L.; Bhasin, A.; Bhat, I. R.; Bhati, A. K.; Bhattacharjee, B.; Bhom, J.; Bianchi, L.; Bianchi, N.; Bianchin, C.; Bielcik, J.; Bielcikova, J.; Bilandzic, A.; Biro, G.; Biswas, R.; Biswas, S.; Bjelogrlic, S.; Blair, J. T.; Blau, D.; Blume, C.; Bock, F.; Bogdanov, A.; Boggild, H.; Boldizsar, L.; Bombara, M.; Book, J.; Borel, H.; Borissov, A.; Borri, M.; Bossu, F.; Botta, E.; Bourjau, C.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Bregant, M.; Breitner, T.; Broker, T. A.; Browning, T. A.; Broz, M.; Brucken, E. J.; Bruna, E.; Bruno, G. E.; Budnikov, D.; Buesching, H.; Bufalino, S.; Buncic, P.; Busch, O.; Buthelezi, Z.; Butt, J. B.; Buxton, J. T.; Cabala, J.; Caffarri, D.; Cai, X.; Caines, H.; Diaz, L. Calero; Caliva, A.; Calvo Villar, E.; Camerini, P.; Carena, F.; Carena, W.; Carnesecchi, F.; Castellanos, J. Castillo; Castro, A. J.; Casula, E. A. R.; Sanchez, C. Ceballos; Cepila, J.; Cerello, P.; Cerkala, J.; Chang, B.; Chapeland, S.; Chartier, M.; Charvet, J. L.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chauvin, A.; Chelnokov, V.; Cherney, M.; Cheshkov, C.; Cheynis, B.; Barroso, V. Chibante; Chinellato, D. D.; Cho, S.; Chochula, P.; Choi, K.; Chojnacki, M.; Choudhury, S.; Christakoglou, P.; Christensen, C. H.; Christiansen, P.; Chujo, T.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Cleymans, J.; Colamaria, F.; Colella, D.; Collu, A.; Colocci, M.; Balbastre, G. Conesa; del Valle, Z. Conesa; Connors, M. E.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormier, T. M.; Morales, Y. Corrales; Cortes Maldonado, I.; Cortese, P.; Cosentino, M. R.; Costa, F.; Crochet, P.; Cruz Albino, R.; Cuautle, E.; Cunqueiro, L.; Dahms, T.; Dainese, A.; Danisch, M. C.; Danu, A.; Das, I.; Das, S.; Dash, A.; Dash, S.; De, S.; De Caro, A.; de Cataldo, G.; de Conti, C.; de Cuveland, J.; De Falco, A.; De Gruttola, D.; De Marco, N.; De Pasquale, S.; Deisting, A.; Deloff, A.; Denes, E.; Deplano, C.; Dhankher, P.; Di Bari, D.; Di Mauro, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Corchero, M. A. Diaz; Dietel, T.; Dillenseger, P.; Divia, R.; Djuvsland, O.; Dobrin, A.; Gimenez, D. Domenicis; Doenigus, B.; Dordic, O.; Drozhzhova, T.; Dubey, A. K.; Dubla, A.; Ducroux, L.; Dupieux, P.; Ehlers, R. J.; Elia, D.; Endress, E.; Engel, H.; Epple, E.; Erazmus, B.; Erdemir, I.; Erhardt, F.; Espagnon, B.; Estienne, M.; Esumi, S.; Eum, J.; Evans, D.; Evdokimov, S.; Eyyubova, G.; Fabbietti, L.; Fabris, D.; Faivre, J.; Fantoni, A.; Fasel, M.; Feldkamp, L.; Feliciello, A.; Feofilov, G.; Ferencei, J.; Fernandez Tellez, A.; Ferreiro, E. G.; Ferretti, A.; Festanti, A.; Feuillard, V. J. G.; Figiel, J.; Figueredo, M. A. S.; Filchagin, S.; Finogeev, D.; Fionda, F. M.; Fiore, E. M.; Fleck, M. G.; Floris, M.; Foertsch, S.; Foka, P.; Fokin, S.; Fragiacomo, E.; Francescon, A.; Frankenfeld, U.; Fronze, G. G.; Fuchs, U.; Furget, C.; Furs, A.; Girard, M. Fusco; Gaardhoje, J. J.; Gagliardi, M.; Gago, A. M.; Gallio, M.; Gangadharan, D. R.; Ganoti, P.; Gao, C.; Garabatos, C.; Garcia-Solis, E.; Gargiulo, C.; Gasik, P.; Gauger, E. F.; Germain, M.; Gheata, A.; Gheata, M.; Gianotti, P.; Giubellino, P.; Giubilato, P.; Gladysz-Dziadus, E.; Glaessel, P.; Gomez Coral, D. M.; Ramirez, A. Gomez; Gonzalez, A. S.; Gonzalez, V.; Gonzalez-Zamora, P.; Gorbunov, S.; Goerlich, L.; Gotovac, S.; Grabski, V.; Grachov, O. A.; Graczykowski, L. K.; Graham, K. L.; Grelli, A.; Grigoras, A.; Grigoras, C.; Grigoriev, V.; Grigoryan, A.; Grigoryan, S.; Grinyov, B.; Grion, N.; Gronefeld, J. M.; Grosse-Oetringhaus, J. F.; Grosso, R.; Guber, F.; Guernane, R.; Guerzoni, B.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gunji, T.; Gupta, A.; Haake, R.; Haaland, O.; Hadjidakis, C.; Haiduc, M.; Hamagaki, H.; Hamar, G.; Hamon, J. C.; Harris, J. W.; Harton, A.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hayashi, S.; Heckel, S. T.; Hellbaer, E.; Helstrup, H.; Herghelegiu, A.; Herrera Corral, G.; Hess, B. A.; Hetland, K. F.; Hillemanns, H.; Hippolyte, B.; Horak, D.; Hosokawa, R.; Hristov, P.; Humanic, T. J.; Hussain, N.; Hussain, T.; Hutter, D.; Hwang, D. S.; Ilkaev, R.; Inaba, M.; Incani, E.; Ippolitov, M.; Irfan, M.; Ivanov, M.; Ivanov, V.; Izucheev, V.; Jacazio, N.; Jadhav, M. B.; Jadlovska, S.; Jadlovsky, J.; Jahnke, C.; Jakubowska, M. J.; Jang, H. J.; Janik, M. A.; Jayarathna, P. H. S. Y.; Jena, C.; Jena, S.; Bustamante, R. T. Jimenez; Jones, P. G.; Jusko, A.; Kalinak, P.; Kalweit, A.; Kamin, J.; Kaplin, V.; Kar, S.; Uysal, A. Karasu; Karavichev, O.; Karavicheva, T.; Karayan, L.; Karpechev, E.; Kebschull, U.; Keidel, R.; Keijdener, D. L. D.; Keil, M.; Khan, M. Mohisin; Khan, P.; Khan, S. A.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kharlov, Y.; Kileng, B.; Kim, D. W.; Kim, D. J.; Kim, D.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, M.; Kim, T.; Kirsch, S.; Kisel, I.; Kiselev, S.; Kisiel, A.; Kiss, G.; Klay, J. L.; Klein, C.; Klein-Boesing, C.; Klewin, S.; Kluge, A.; Knichel, M. L.; Knospe, A. G.; Kobdaj, C.; Kofarago, M.; Kollegger, T.; Kolojvari, A.; Kondratiev, V.; Kondratyeva, N.; Kondratyuk, E.; Konevskikh, A.; Kopcik, M.; Kostarakis, P.; Kour, M.; Kouzinopoulos, C.; Kovalenko, O.; Kovalenko, V.; Kowalski, M.; Meethaleveedu, G. Koyithatta; Kralik, I.; Kravcakova, A.; Krivda, M.; Krizek, F.; Kryshen, E.; Krzewicki, M.; Kubera, A. M.; Kucera, V.; Kuijer, P. G.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kumar, S.; Kurashvili, P.; Kurepin, A.; Kurepin, A. B.; Kuryakin, A.; Kweon, M. J.; Kwon, Y.; La Pointe, S. L.; La Rocca, P.; Ladron de Guevara, P.; Lagana Fernandes, C.; Lakomov, I.; Langoy, R.; Lara, C.; Lardeux, A.; Lattuca, A.; Laudi, E.; Lea, R.; Leardini, L.; Lee, G. R.; Lee, S.; Lehas, F.; Lemmon, R. C.; Lenti, V.; Leogrande, E.; Monzon, I. Leon; Leon Vargas, H.; Leoncino, M.; Levai, P.; Lien, J.; Lietava, R.; Lindal, S.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lippmann, C.; Lisa, M. A.; Ljunggren, H. M.; Lodato, D. F.; Loenne, P. I.; Loginov, V.; Loizides, C.; Lopez, X.; Torres, E. Lopez; Lowe, A.; Luettig, P.; Lunardon, M.; Luparello, G.; Lutz, T. H.; Maevskaya, A.; Mager, M.; Mahajan, S.; Mahmood, S. M.; Maire, A.; Majka, R. D.; Malaev, M.; Maldonado Cervantes, I.; Malinina, L.; Mal'Kevich, D.; Malzacher, P.; Mamonov, A.; Manko, V.; Manso, F.; Manzari, V.; Marchisone, M.; Mares, J.; Margagliotti, G. V.; Margotti, A.; Margutti, J.; Marin, A.; Markert, C.; Marquard, M.; Martin, N. A.; Blanco, J. Martin; Martinengo, P.; Martinez, M. I.; Garcia, G. Martinez; Pedreira, M. Martinez; Mas, A.; Masciocchi, S.; Masera, M.; Masoni, A.; Mastroserio, A.; Matyja, A.; Mayer, C.; Mazer, J.; Mazzoni, M. A.; Mcdonald, D.; Meddi, F.; Melikyan, Y.; Menchaca-Rocha, A.; Meninno, E.; Perez, J. Mercado; Meres, M.; Miake, Y.; Mieskolainen, M. M.; Mikhaylov, K.; Milano, L.; Milosevic, J.; Mischke, A.; Mishra, A. N.; Miskowiec, D.; Mitra, J.; Mitu, C. M.; Mohammadi, N.; Mohanty, B.; Molnar, L.; Montano Zetina, L.; Montes, E.; De Godoy, D. A. Moreira; Moreno, L. A. P.; Moretto, S.; Morreale, A.; Morsch, A.; Muccifora, V.; Mudnic, E.; Muehlheim, D.; Muhuri, S.; Mukherjee, M.; Mulligan, J. D.; Munhoz, M. G.; Munzer, R. H.; Murakami, H.; Murray, S.; Musa, L.; Musinsky, J.; Naik, B.; Nair, R.; Nandi, B. K.; Nania, R.; Nappi, E.; Naru, M. U.; Natal da Luz, H.; Nattrass, C.; Navarro, S. R.; Nayak, K.; Nayak, R.; Nayak, T. K.; Nazarenko, S.; Nedosekin, A.; Nellen, L.; Ng, F.; Nicassio, M.; Niculescu, M.; Niedziela, J.; Nielsen, B. S.; Nikolaev, S.; Nikulin, S.; Nikulin, V.; Noferini, F.; Nomokonov, P.; Nooren, G.; Noris, J. C. C.; Norman, J.; Nyanin, A.; Nystrand, J.; Oeschler, H.; Oh, S.; Oh, S. K.; Ohlson, A.; Okatan, A.; Okubo, T.; Olah, L.; Oleniacz, J.; Oliveira Da Silva, A. C.; Oliver, M. H.; Onderwaater, J.; Oppedisano, C.; Orava, R.; Oravec, M.; Ortiz Velasquez, A.; Oskarsson, A.; Otwinowski, J.; Oyama, K.; Ozdemir, M.; Pachmayer, Y.; Pagano, D.; Pagano, P.; Paic, G.; Pal, S. K.; Pan, J.; Papikyan, V.; Pappalardo, G. S.; Pareek, P.; Park, W. J.; Parmar, S.; Passfeld, A.; Paticchio, V.; Patra, R. N.; Paul, B.; Pei, H.; Peitzmann, T.; Da Costa, H. Pereira; Peresunko, D.; Lara, C. E. Perez; Lezama, E. Perez; Peskov, V.; Pestov, Y.; Petracek, V.; Petrov, V.; Petrovici, M.; Petta, C.; Piano, S.; Pikna, M.; Pillot, P.; Pimentel, L. O. D. L.; Pinazza, O.; Pinsky, L.; Piyarathna, D. B.; Ploskon, M.; Planinic, M.; Pluta, J.; Pochybova, S.; Podesta-Lerma, P. L. M.; Poghosyan, M. G.; Polichtchouk, B.; Poljak, N.; Poonsawat, W.; Pop, A.; Porteboeuf-Houssais, S.; Porter, J.; Pospisil, J.; Prasad, S. K.; Preghenella, R.; Prino, F.; Pruneau, C. A.; Pshenichnov, I.; Puccio, M.; Puddu, G.; Pujahari, P.; Punin, V.; Putschke, J.; Qvigstad, H.; Rachevski, A.; Raha, S.; Rajput, S.; Rak, J.; Rakotozafindrabe, A.; Ramello, L.; Rami, F.; Raniwala, R.; Raniwala, S.; Raesaenen, S. S.; Rascanu, B. T.; Rathee, D.; Read, K. F.; Redlich, K.; Reed, R. J.; Reichelt, P.; Reidt, F.; Ren, X.; Renfordt, R.; Reolon, A. R.; Reshetin, A.; Reygers, K.; Riabov, V.; Ricci, R. A.; Richert, T.; Richter, M.; Riedler, P.; Riegler, W.; Riggi, F.; Ristea, C.; Rocco, E.; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, M.; Manso, A. Rodriguez; Roed, K.; Rogochaya, E.; Rohr, D.; Roehrich, D.; Ronchetti, F.; Ronflette, L.; Rosnet, P.; Rossi, A.; Roukoutakis, F.; Roy, A.; Roy, C.; Roy, P.; Montero, A. J. Rubio; Rui, R.; Russo, R.; Ryabinkin, E.; Ryabov, Y.; Rybicki, A.; Saarinen, S.; Sadhu, S.; Sadovsky, S.; Safarik, K.; Sahlmuller, B.; Sahoo, P.; Sahoo, R.; Sahoo, S.; Sahu, P. K.; Saini, J.; Sakai, S.; Saleh, M. A.; Salzwedel, J.; Sambyal, S.; Samsonov, V.; Sandor, L.; Sandoval, A.; Sano, M.; Sarkar, D.; Sarkar, N.; Sarma, P.; Scapparone, E.; Scarlassara, F.; Schiaua, C.; Schicker, R.; Schmidt, C.; Schmidt, H. R.; Schuchmann, S.; Schukraft, J.; Schulc, M.; Schutz, Y.; Schwarz, K.; Schweda, K.; Scioli, G.; Scomparin, E.; Scott, R.; Sefcik, M.; Seger, J. E.; Sekiguchi, Y.; Sekihata, D.; Selyuzhenkov, I.; Senosi, K.; Senyukov, S.; Serradilla, E.; Sevcenco, A.; Shabanov, A.; Shabetai, A.; Shadura, O.; Shahoyan, R.; Shahzad, M. I.; Shangaraev, A.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, N.; Sheikh, A. I.; Shigaki, K.; Shou, Q.; Shtejer, K.; Sibiriak, Y.; Siddhanta, S.; Sielewicz, K. M.; Siemiarczuk, T.; Silvermyr, D.; Silvestre, C.; Simatovic, G.; Simonetti, G.; Singaraju, R.; Singh, R.; Singha, S.; Singhal, V.; Sinha, B. C.; Sinha, T.; Sitar, B.; Sitta, M.; Skaali, T. B.; Slupecki, M.; Smirnov, N.; Snellings, R. J. M.; Snellman, T. W.; Song, J.; Song, M.; Song, Z.; Soramel, F.; Sorensen, S.; de Souza, R. D.; Sozzi, F.; Spacek, M.; Spiriti, E.; Sputowska, I.; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, M.; Stachel, J.; Stan, I.; Stankus, P.; Stenlund, E.; Steyn, G.; Stiller, J. H.; Stocco, D.; Strmen, P.; Suaide, A. A. P.; Sugitate, T.; Suire, C.; Suleymanov, M.; Suljic, M.; Sultanov, R.; Sumbera, M.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Szabo, A.; Szanto de Toledo, A.; Szarka, I.; Szczepankiewicz, A.; Szymanski, M.; Tabassam, U.; Takahashi, J.; Tambave, G. J.; Tanaka, N.; Tarhini, M.; Tariq, M.; Tarzila, M. G.; Tauro, A.; Tejeda Munoz, G.; Telesca, A.; Terasaki, K.; Terrevoli, C.; Teyssier, B.; Thaeder, J.; Thakur, D.; Thomas, D.; Tieulent, R.; Timmins, A. R.; Toia, A.; Trogolo, S.; Trombetta, G.; Trubnikov, V.; Trzaska, W. H.; Tsuji, T.; Tumkin, A.; Turrisi, R.; Tveter, T. S.; Ullaland, K.; Uras, A.; Usai, G. L.; Utrobicic, A.; Vala, M.; Palomo, L. Valencia; Vallero, S.; Van Der Maarel, J.; Van Hoorne, J. W.; van Leeuwen, M.; Vanat, T.; Vyvre, P. Vande; Varga, D.; Vargas, A.; Vargyas, M.; Varma, R.; Vasileiou, M.; Vasiliev, A.; Vauthier, A.; Vechernin, V.; Veen, A. M.; Veldhoen, M.; Velure, A.; Vercellin, E.; Vergara Limon, S.; Vernet, R.; Verweij, M.; Vickovic, L.; Viesti, G.; Viinikainen, J.; Vilakazi, Z.; Baillie, O. Villalobos; Villatoro Tello, A.; Vinogradov, A.; Vinogradov, L.; Vinogradov, Y.; Virgili, T.; Vislavicius, V.; Viyogi, Y. P.; Vodopyanov, A.; Voelkl, M. A.; Voloshin, K.; Voloshin, S. A.; Volpe, G.; von Haller, B.; Vorobyev, I.; Vranic, D.; Vrlakova, J.; Vulpescu, B.; Wagner, B.; Wagner, J.; Wang, H.; Watanabe, D.; Watanabe, Y.; Weiser, D. F.; Westerhoff, U.; Whitehead, A. M.; Wiechula, J.; Wikne, J.; Wilk, G.; Wilkinson, J.; Williams, M. C. S.; Windelband, B.; Winn, M.; Yang, H.; Yano, S.; Yasin, Z.; Yokoyama, H.; Yoo, I. -K.; Yoon, J. H.; Yurchenko, V.; Yushmanov, I.; Zaborowska, A.; Zaccolo, V.; Zaman, A.; Zampolli, C.; Zanoli, H. J. C.; Zaporozhets, S.; Zardoshti, N.; Zarochentsev, A.; Zavada, P.; Zaviyalov, N.; Zbroszczyk, H.; Zgura, I. S.; Zhalov, M.; Zhang, C.; Zhao, C.; Zhigareva, N.; Zhou, Y.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, H.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, A.; Zimmermann, M. B.; Zinovjev, G.; Zyzak, M.

    2016-01-01

    We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian

  5. Advances in Bayesian Modeling in Educational Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Roy

    2016-01-01

    In this article, I provide a conceptually oriented overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference and contrast them with frequentist approaches that currently dominate conventional practice in educational research. The features and advantages of Bayesian approaches are illustrated with examples spanning several statistical modeling…

  6. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

    2006-01-01

    We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...

  7. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

    2004-01-01

    We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...

  8. Sequential lineup laps and eyewitness accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steblay, Nancy K; Dietrich, Hannah L; Ryan, Shannon L; Raczynski, Jeanette L; James, Kali A

    2011-08-01

    Police practice of double-blind sequential lineups prompts a question about the efficacy of repeated viewings (laps) of the sequential lineup. Two laboratory experiments confirmed the presence of a sequential lap effect: an increase in witness lineup picks from first to second lap, when the culprit was a stranger. The second lap produced more errors than correct identifications. In Experiment 2, lineup diagnosticity was significantly higher for sequential lineup procedures that employed a single versus double laps. Witnesses who elected to view a second lap made significantly more errors than witnesses who chose to stop after one lap or those who were required to view two laps. Witnesses with prior exposure to the culprit did not exhibit a sequential lap effect.

  9. Multi-agent sequential hypothesis testing

    KAUST Repository

    Kim, Kwang-Ki K.

    2014-12-15

    This paper considers multi-agent sequential hypothesis testing and presents a framework for strategic learning in sequential games with explicit consideration of both temporal and spatial coordination. The associated Bayes risk functions explicitly incorporate costs of taking private/public measurements, costs of time-difference and disagreement in actions of agents, and costs of false declaration/choices in the sequential hypothesis testing. The corresponding sequential decision processes have well-defined value functions with respect to (a) the belief states for the case of conditional independent private noisy measurements that are also assumed to be independent identically distributed over time, and (b) the information states for the case of correlated private noisy measurements. A sequential investment game of strategic coordination and delay is also discussed as an application of the proposed strategic learning rules.

  10. Sequential Product of Quantum Effects: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudder, Stan

    2010-12-01

    This article presents an overview for the theory of sequential products of quantum effects. We first summarize some of the highlights of this relatively recent field of investigation and then provide some new results. We begin by discussing sequential effect algebras which are effect algebras endowed with a sequential product satisfying certain basic conditions. We then consider sequential products of (discrete) quantum measurements. We next treat transition effect matrices (TEMs) and their associated sequential product. A TEM is a matrix whose entries are effects and whose rows form quantum measurements. We show that TEMs can be employed for the study of quantum Markov chains. Finally, we prove some new results concerning TEMs and vector densities.

  11. BELM: Bayesian extreme learning machine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soria-Olivas, Emilio; Gómez-Sanchis, Juan; Martín, José D; Vila-Francés, Joan; Martínez, Marcelino; Magdalena, José R; Serrano, Antonio J

    2011-03-01

    The theory of extreme learning machine (ELM) has become very popular on the last few years. ELM is a new approach for learning the parameters of the hidden layers of a multilayer neural network (as the multilayer perceptron or the radial basis function neural network). Its main advantage is the lower computational cost, which is especially relevant when dealing with many patterns defined in a high-dimensional space. This brief proposes a bayesian approach to ELM, which presents some advantages over other approaches: it allows the introduction of a priori knowledge; obtains the confidence intervals (CIs) without the need of applying methods that are computationally intensive, e.g., bootstrap; and presents high generalization capabilities. Bayesian ELM is benchmarked against classical ELM in several artificial and real datasets that are widely used for the evaluation of machine learning algorithms. Achieved results show that the proposed approach produces a competitive accuracy with some additional advantages, namely, automatic production of CIs, reduction of probability of model overfitting, and use of a priori knowledge.

  12. BAYESIAN BICLUSTERING FOR PATIENT STRATIFICATION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khakabimamaghani, Sahand; Ester, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The move from Empirical Medicine towards Personalized Medicine has attracted attention to Stratified Medicine (SM). Some methods are provided in the literature for patient stratification, which is the central task of SM, however, there are still significant open issues. First, it is still unclear if integrating different datatypes will help in detecting disease subtypes more accurately, and, if not, which datatype(s) are most useful for this task. Second, it is not clear how we can compare different methods of patient stratification. Third, as most of the proposed stratification methods are deterministic, there is a need for investigating the potential benefits of applying probabilistic methods. To address these issues, we introduce a novel integrative Bayesian biclustering method, called B2PS, for patient stratification and propose methods for evaluating the results. Our experimental results demonstrate the superiority of B2PS over a popular state-of-the-art method and the benefits of Bayesian approaches. Our results agree with the intuition that transcriptomic data forms a better basis for patient stratification than genomic data.

  13. Bayesian Nonparametric Longitudinal Data Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintana, Fernando A; Johnson, Wesley O; Waetjen, Elaine; Gold, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    Practical Bayesian nonparametric methods have been developed across a wide variety of contexts. Here, we develop a novel statistical model that generalizes standard mixed models for longitudinal data that include flexible mean functions as well as combined compound symmetry (CS) and autoregressive (AR) covariance structures. AR structure is often specified through the use of a Gaussian process (GP) with covariance functions that allow longitudinal data to be more correlated if they are observed closer in time than if they are observed farther apart. We allow for AR structure by considering a broader class of models that incorporates a Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) over the covariance parameters of the GP. We are able to take advantage of modern Bayesian statistical methods in making full predictive inferences and about characteristics of longitudinal profiles and their differences across covariate combinations. We also take advantage of the generality of our model, which provides for estimation of a variety of covariance structures. We observe that models that fail to incorporate CS or AR structure can result in very poor estimation of a covariance or correlation matrix. In our illustration using hormone data observed on women through the menopausal transition, biology dictates the use of a generalized family of sigmoid functions as a model for time trends across subpopulation categories.

  14. Standardized method for reproducing the sequential X-rays flap

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenes, Alejandra; Molina, Katherine; Gudino, Sylvia

    2009-01-01

    A method is validated to estandardize in the taking, developing and analysis of bite-wing radiographs taken in sequential way, in order to compare and evaluate detectable changes in the evolution of the interproximal lesions through time. A radiographic positioner called XCP® is modified by means of a rigid acrylic guide, to achieve proper of the X ray equipment core positioning relative to the XCP® ring and the reorientation during the sequential x-rays process. 16 subjects of 4 to 40 years old are studied for a total number of 32 registries. Two x-rays of the same block of teeth of each subject have been taken in sequential way, with a minimal difference of 30 minutes between each one, before the placement of radiographic attachment. The images have been digitized with a Super Cam® scanner and imported to a software. The measurements in X and Y-axis for both x-rays were performed to proceed to compare. The intraclass correlation index (ICI) has shown that the proposed method is statistically related to measurement (mm) obtained in the X and Y-axis for both sequential series of x-rays (p=0.01). The measures of central tendency and dispersion have shown that the usual occurrence is indifferent between the two measurements (Mode 0.000 and S = 0083 and 0.109) and that the probability of occurrence of different values is lower than expected. (author) [es

  15. 2nd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

    CERN Document Server

    Bitto, Angela; Kastner, Gregor; Posekany, Alexandra

    2015-01-01

    The Second Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (BAYSM 2014) and the research presented here facilitate connections among researchers using Bayesian Statistics by providing a forum for the development and exchange of ideas. WU Vienna University of Business and Economics hosted BAYSM 2014 from September 18th to 19th. The guidance of renowned plenary lecturers and senior discussants is a critical part of the meeting and this volume, which follows publication of contributions from BAYSM 2013. The meeting's scientific program reflected the variety of fields in which Bayesian methods are currently employed or could be introduced in the future. Three brilliant keynote lectures by Chris Holmes (University of Oxford), Christian Robert (Université Paris-Dauphine), and Mike West (Duke University), were complemented by 24 plenary talks covering the major topics Dynamic Models, Applications, Bayesian Nonparametrics, Biostatistics, Bayesian Methods in Economics, and Models and Methods, as well as a lively poster session ...

  16. Bayesian natural language semantics and pragmatics

    CERN Document Server

    Zeevat, Henk

    2015-01-01

    The contributions in this volume focus on the Bayesian interpretation of natural languages, which is widely used in areas of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and computational linguistics. This is the first volume to take up topics in Bayesian Natural Language Interpretation and make proposals based on information theory, probability theory, and related fields. The methodologies offered here extend to the target semantic and pragmatic analyses of computational natural language interpretation. Bayesian approaches to natural language semantics and pragmatics are based on methods from signal processing and the causal Bayesian models pioneered by especially Pearl. In signal processing, the Bayesian method finds the most probable interpretation by finding the one that maximizes the product of the prior probability and the likelihood of the interpretation. It thus stresses the importance of a production model for interpretation as in Grice's contributions to pragmatics or in interpretation by abduction.

  17. A Bayesian inference approach to unveil supply curves in electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mitridati, Lesia Marie-Jeanne Mariane; Pinson, Pierre

    2017-01-01

    in the literature on modeling this uncertainty. In this study we introduce a Bayesian inference approach to reveal the aggregate supply curve in a day-ahead electricity market. The proposed algorithm relies on Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Sequential Monte Carlo methods. The major appeal of this approach......With increased competition in wholesale electricity markets, the need for new decision-making tools for strategic producers has arisen. Optimal bidding strategies have traditionally been modeled as stochastic profit maximization problems. However, for producers with non-negligible market power...

  18. Learning of state-space models with highly informative observations: A tempered sequential Monte Carlo solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svensson, Andreas; Schön, Thomas B.; Lindsten, Fredrik

    2018-05-01

    Probabilistic (or Bayesian) modeling and learning offers interesting possibilities for systematic representation of uncertainty using probability theory. However, probabilistic learning often leads to computationally challenging problems. Some problems of this type that were previously intractable can now be solved on standard personal computers thanks to recent advances in Monte Carlo methods. In particular, for learning of unknown parameters in nonlinear state-space models, methods based on the particle filter (a Monte Carlo method) have proven very useful. A notoriously challenging problem, however, still occurs when the observations in the state-space model are highly informative, i.e. when there is very little or no measurement noise present, relative to the amount of process noise. The particle filter will then struggle in estimating one of the basic components for probabilistic learning, namely the likelihood p (data | parameters). To this end we suggest an algorithm which initially assumes that there is substantial amount of artificial measurement noise present. The variance of this noise is sequentially decreased in an adaptive fashion such that we, in the end, recover the original problem or possibly a very close approximation of it. The main component in our algorithm is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler, which gives our proposed method a clear resemblance to the SMC2 method. Another natural link is also made to the ideas underlying the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). We illustrate it with numerical examples, and in particular show promising results for a challenging Wiener-Hammerstein benchmark problem.

  19. Sequential Scintigraphy in Renal Transplantation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winkel, K. zum; Harbst, H.; Schenck, P.; Franz, H. E.; Ritz, E.; Roehl, L.; Ziegler, M.; Ammann, W.; Maier-Borst, W. [Institut Fuer Nuklearmedizin, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum, Heidelberg, Federal Republic of Germany (Germany)

    1969-05-15

    Based on experience gained from more than 1600 patients with proved or suspected kidney diseases and on results on extended studies with dogs, sequential scintigraphy was performed after renal transplantation in dogs. After intravenous injection of 500 {mu}Ci. {sup 131}I-Hippuran scintiphotos were taken during the first minute with an exposure time of 15 sec each and thereafter with an exposure of 2 min up to at least 16 min.. Several examinations were evaluated digitally. 26 examinations were performed on 11 dogs with homotransplanted kidneys. Immediately after transplantation the renal function was almost normal arid the bladder was filled in due time. At the beginning of rejection the initial uptake of radioactive Hippuran was reduced. The intrarenal transport became delayed; probably the renal extraction rate decreased. Corresponding to the development of an oedema in the transplant the uptake area increased in size. In cases of thrombosis of the main artery there was no evidence of any uptake of radioactivity in the transplant. Similar results were obtained in 41 examinations on 15 persons. Patients with postoperative anuria due to acute tubular necrosis showed still some uptake of radioactivity contrary to those with thrombosis of the renal artery, where no uptake was found. In cases of rejection the most frequent signs were a reduced initial uptake and a delayed intrarenal transport of radioactive Hippuran. Infarction could be detected by a reduced uptake in distinct areas of the transplant. (author)

  20. Sequential provisional implant prosthodontics therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinner, Ira D; Markovits, Stanley; Jansen, Curtis E; Reid, Patrick E; Schnader, Yale E; Shapiro, Herbert J

    2012-01-01

    The fabrication and long-term use of first- and second-stage provisional implant prostheses is critical to create a favorable prognosis for function and esthetics of a fixed-implant supported prosthesis. The fixed metal and acrylic resin cemented first-stage prosthesis, as reviewed in Part I, is needed for prevention of adjacent and opposing tooth movement, pressure on the implant site as well as protection to avoid micromovement of the freshly placed implant body. The second-stage prosthesis, reviewed in Part II, should be used following implant uncovering and abutment installation. The patient wears this provisional prosthesis until maturation of the bone and healing of soft tissues. The second-stage provisional prosthesis is also a fail-safe mechanism for possible early implant failures and also can be used with late failures and/or for the necessity to repair the definitive prosthesis. In addition, the screw-retained provisional prosthesis is used if and when an implant requires removal or other implants are to be placed as in a sequential approach. The creation and use of both first- and second-stage provisional prostheses involve a restorative dentist, dental technician, surgeon, and patient to work as a team. If the dentist alone cannot do diagnosis and treatment planning, surgery, and laboratory techniques, he or she needs help by employing the expertise of a surgeon and a laboratory technician. This team approach is essential for optimum results.

  1. Evolution in Mind: Evolutionary Dynamics, Cognitive Processes, and Bayesian Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suchow, Jordan W; Bourgin, David D; Griffiths, Thomas L

    2017-07-01

    Evolutionary theory describes the dynamics of population change in settings affected by reproduction, selection, mutation, and drift. In the context of human cognition, evolutionary theory is most often invoked to explain the origins of capacities such as language, metacognition, and spatial reasoning, framing them as functional adaptations to an ancestral environment. However, evolutionary theory is useful for understanding the mind in a second way: as a mathematical framework for describing evolving populations of thoughts, ideas, and memories within a single mind. In fact, deep correspondences exist between the mathematics of evolution and of learning, with perhaps the deepest being an equivalence between certain evolutionary dynamics and Bayesian inference. This equivalence permits reinterpretation of evolutionary processes as algorithms for Bayesian inference and has relevance for understanding diverse cognitive capacities, including memory and creativity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Using Bayesian networks to support decision-focused information retrieval

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehner, P.; Elsaesser, C.; Seligman, L. [Mitre Corp., McLean, VA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper has described an approach to controlling the process of pulling data/information from distributed data bases in a way that is specific to a persons specific decision making context. Our prototype implementation of this approach uses a knowledge-based planner to generate a plan, an automatically constructed Bayesian network to evaluate the plan, specialized processing of the network to derive key information items that would substantially impact the evaluation of the plan (e.g., determine that replanning is needed), automated construction of Standing Requests for Information (SRIs) which are automated functions that monitor changes and trends in distributed data base that are relevant to the key information items. This emphasis of this paper is on how Bayesian networks are used.

  3. Detecting changes in real-time data: a user's guide to optimal detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, P; Moriarty, J; Peskir, G

    2017-08-13

    The real-time detection of changes in a noisily observed signal is an important problem in applied science and engineering. The study of parametric optimal detection theory began in the 1930s, motivated by applications in production and defence. Today this theory, which aims to minimize a given measure of detection delay under accuracy constraints, finds applications in domains including radar, sonar, seismic activity, global positioning, psychological testing, quality control, communications and power systems engineering. This paper reviews developments in optimal detection theory and sequential analysis, including sequential hypothesis testing and change-point detection, in both Bayesian and classical (non-Bayesian) settings. For clarity of exposition, we work in discrete time and provide a brief discussion of the continuous time setting, including recent developments using stochastic calculus. Different measures of detection delay are presented, together with the corresponding optimal solutions. We emphasize the important role of the signal-to-noise ratio and discuss both the underlying assumptions and some typical applications for each formulation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Energy management: flexibility, risk and optimization'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  4. A Bayesian Reflection on Surfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David R. Wolf

    1999-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: The topic of this paper is a novel Bayesian continuous-basis field representation and inference framework. Within this paper several problems are solved: The maximally informative inference of continuous-basis fields, that is where the basis for the field is itself a continuous object and not representable in a finite manner; the tradeoff between accuracy of representation in terms of information learned, and memory or storage capacity in bits; the approximation of probability distributions so that a maximal amount of information about the object being inferred is preserved; an information theoretic justification for multigrid methodology. The maximally informative field inference framework is described in full generality and denoted the Generalized Kalman Filter. The Generalized Kalman Filter allows the update of field knowledge from previous knowledge at any scale, and new data, to new knowledge at any other scale. An application example instance, the inference of continuous surfaces from measurements (for example, camera image data, is presented.

  5. Attention in a bayesian framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Whiteley, Louise Emma; Sahani, Maneesh

    2012-01-01

    , and include both selective phenomena, where attention is invoked by cues that point to particular stimuli, and integrative phenomena, where attention is invoked dynamically by endogenous processing. However, most previous Bayesian accounts of attention have focused on describing relatively simple experimental...... selective and integrative roles, and thus cannot be easily extended to complex environments. We suggest that the resource bottleneck stems from the computational intractability of exact perceptual inference in complex settings, and that attention reflects an evolved mechanism for approximate inference which...... can be shaped to refine the local accuracy of perception. We show that this approach extends the simple picture of attention as prior, so as to provide a unified and computationally driven account of both selective and integrative attentional phenomena....

  6. Nonparametric Bayesian inference in biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter

    2015-01-01

    As chapters in this book demonstrate, BNP has important uses in clinical sciences and inference for issues like unknown partitions in genomics. Nonparametric Bayesian approaches (BNP) play an ever expanding role in biostatistical inference from use in proteomics to clinical trials. Many research problems involve an abundance of data and require flexible and complex probability models beyond the traditional parametric approaches. As this book's expert contributors show, BNP approaches can be the answer. Survival Analysis, in particular survival regression, has traditionally used BNP, but BNP's potential is now very broad. This applies to important tasks like arrangement of patients into clinically meaningful subpopulations and segmenting the genome into functionally distinct regions. This book is designed to both review and introduce application areas for BNP. While existing books provide theoretical foundations, this book connects theory to practice through engaging examples and research questions. Chapters c...

  7. Bayesian estimation in homodyne interferometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olivares, Stefano; Paris, Matteo G A

    2009-01-01

    We address phase-shift estimation by means of squeezed vacuum probe and homodyne detection. We analyse Bayesian estimator, which is known to asymptotically saturate the classical Cramer-Rao bound to the variance, and discuss convergence looking at the a posteriori distribution as the number of measurements increases. We also suggest two feasible adaptive methods, acting on the squeezing parameter and/or the homodyne local oscillator phase, which allow us to optimize homodyne detection and approach the ultimate bound to precision imposed by the quantum Cramer-Rao theorem. The performances of our two-step methods are investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulated experiments with a small number of homodyne data, thus giving a quantitative meaning to the notion of asymptotic optimality.

  8. Bayesian Kernel Mixtures for Counts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canale, Antonio; Dunson, David B

    2011-12-01

    Although Bayesian nonparametric mixture models for continuous data are well developed, there is a limited literature on related approaches for count data. A common strategy is to use a mixture of Poissons, which unfortunately is quite restrictive in not accounting for distributions having variance less than the mean. Other approaches include mixing multinomials, which requires finite support, and using a Dirichlet process prior with a Poisson base measure, which does not allow smooth deviations from the Poisson. As a broad class of alternative models, we propose to use nonparametric mixtures of rounded continuous kernels. An efficient Gibbs sampler is developed for posterior computation, and a simulation study is performed to assess performance. Focusing on the rounded Gaussian case, we generalize the modeling framework to account for multivariate count data, joint modeling with continuous and categorical variables, and other complications. The methods are illustrated through applications to a developmental toxicity study and marketing data. This article has supplementary material online.

  9. Bayesian networks in educational assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Almond, Russell G; Steinberg, Linda S; Yan, Duanli; Williamson, David M

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian inference networks, a synthesis of statistics and expert systems, have advanced reasoning under uncertainty in medicine, business, and social sciences. This innovative volume is the first comprehensive treatment exploring how they can be applied to design and analyze innovative educational assessments. Part I develops Bayes nets’ foundations in assessment, statistics, and graph theory, and works through the real-time updating algorithm. Part II addresses parametric forms for use with assessment, model-checking techniques, and estimation with the EM algorithm and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A unique feature is the volume’s grounding in Evidence-Centered Design (ECD) framework for assessment design. This “design forward” approach enables designers to take full advantage of Bayes nets’ modularity and ability to model complex evidentiary relationships that arise from performance in interactive, technology-rich assessments such as simulations. Part III describes ECD, situates Bayes nets as ...

  10. Tradable permit allocations and sequential choice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacKenzie, Ian A. [Centre for Economic Research, ETH Zuerich, Zurichbergstrasse 18, 8092 Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2011-01-15

    This paper investigates initial allocation choices in an international tradable pollution permit market. For two sovereign governments, we compare allocation choices that are either simultaneously or sequentially announced. We show sequential allocation announcements result in higher (lower) aggregate emissions when announcements are strategic substitutes (complements). Whether allocation announcements are strategic substitutes or complements depends on the relationship between the follower's damage function and governments' abatement costs. When the marginal damage function is relatively steep (flat), allocation announcements are strategic substitutes (complements). For quadratic abatement costs and damages, sequential announcements provide a higher level of aggregate emissions. (author)

  11. Sequential Generalized Transforms on Function Space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Gil Choi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We define two sequential transforms on a function space Ca,b[0,T] induced by generalized Brownian motion process. We then establish the existence of the sequential transforms for functionals in a Banach algebra of functionals on Ca,b[0,T]. We also establish that any one of these transforms acts like an inverse transform of the other transform. Finally, we give some remarks about certain relations between our sequential transforms and other well-known transforms on Ca,b[0,T].

  12. Robust bayesian analysis of an autoregressive model with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this work, robust Bayesian analysis of the Bayesian estimation of an autoregressive model with exponential innovations is performed. Using a Bayesian robustness methodology, we show that, using a suitable generalized quadratic loss, we obtain optimal Bayesian estimators of the parameters corresponding to the ...

  13. Varying prior information in Bayesian inversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, Matthew; Curtis, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Bayes' rule is used to combine likelihood and prior probability distributions. The former represents knowledge derived from new data, the latter represents pre-existing knowledge; the Bayesian combination is the so-called posterior distribution, representing the resultant new state of knowledge. While varying the likelihood due to differing data observations is common, there are also situations where the prior distribution must be changed or replaced repeatedly. For example, in mixture density neural network (MDN) inversion, using current methods the neural network employed for inversion needs to be retrained every time prior information changes. We develop a method of prior replacement to vary the prior without re-training the network. Thus the efficiency of MDN inversions can be increased, typically by orders of magnitude when applied to geophysical problems. We demonstrate this for the inversion of seismic attributes in a synthetic subsurface geological reservoir model. We also present results which suggest that prior replacement can be used to control the statistical properties (such as variance) of the final estimate of the posterior in more general (e.g., Monte Carlo based) inverse problem solutions. (paper)

  14. Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists

    CERN Document Server

    Hobbs, N Thompson

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili

  15. Parameter sampling capabilities of sequential and simultaneous data assimilation: I. Analytical comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fossum, Kristian; Mannseth, Trond

    2014-01-01

    We assess the parameter sampling capabilities of some Bayesian, ensemble-based, joint state-parameter (JS) estimation methods. The forward model is assumed to be non-chaotic and have nonlinear components, and the emphasis is on results obtained for the parameters in the state-parameter vector. A variety of approximate sampling methods exist, and a number of numerical comparisons between such methods have been performed. Often, more than one of the defining characteristics vary from one method to another, so it can be difficult to point out which characteristic of the more successful method in such a comparison was decisive. In this study, we single out one defining characteristic for comparison; whether or not data are assimilated sequentially or simultaneously. The current paper is concerned with analytical investigations into this issue. We carefully select one sequential and one simultaneous JS method for the comparison. We also design a corresponding pair of pure parameter estimation methods, and we show how the JS methods and the parameter estimation methods are pairwise related. It is shown that the sequential and the simultaneous parameter estimation methods are equivalent for one particular combination of observations with different degrees of nonlinearity. Strong indications are presented for why one may expect the sequential parameter estimation method to outperform the simultaneous parameter estimation method for all other combinations of observations. Finally, the conditions for when similar relations can be expected to hold between the corresponding JS methods are discussed. A companion paper, part II (Fossum and Mannseth 2014 Inverse Problems 30 114003), is concerned with statistical analysis of results from a range of numerical experiments involving sequential and simultaneous JS estimation, where the design of the numerical investigation is motivated by our findings in the current paper. (paper)

  16. Efficacy of premixed versus sequential administration of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    sequential administration in separate syringes on block characteristics, haemodynamic parameters, side effect profile and postoperative analgesic requirement. Trial design: This was a prospective, randomised clinical study. Method: Sixty orthopaedic patients scheduled for elective lower limb surgery under spinal ...

  17. Constrained treatment planning using sequential beam selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woudstra, E.; Storchi, P.R.M.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper an algorithm is described for automated treatment plan generation. The algorithm aims at delivery of the prescribed dose to the target volume without violation of constraints for target, organs at risk and the surrounding normal tissue. Pre-calculated dose distributions for all candidate orientations are used as input. Treatment beams are selected in a sequential way. A score function designed for beam selection is used for the simultaneous selection of beam orientations and weights. In order to determine the optimum choice for the orientation and the corresponding weight of each new beam, the score function is first redefined to account for the dose distribution of the previously selected beams. Addition of more beams to the plan is stopped when the target dose is reached or when no additional dose can be delivered without violating a constraint. In the latter case the score function is modified by importance factor changes to enforce better sparing of the organ with the limiting constraint and the algorithm is run again. (author)

  18. Risk, unexpected uncertainty, and estimation uncertainty: Bayesian learning in unstable settings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elise Payzan-LeNestour

    Full Text Available Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating.

  19. Structural Consistency, Consistency, and Sequential Rationality.

    OpenAIRE

    Kreps, David M; Ramey, Garey

    1987-01-01

    Sequential equilibria comprise consistent beliefs and a sequentially ra tional strategy profile. Consistent beliefs are limits of Bayes ratio nal beliefs for sequences of strategies that approach the equilibrium strategy. Beliefs are structurally consistent if they are rationaliz ed by some single conjecture concerning opponents' strategies. Consis tent beliefs are not necessarily structurally consistent, notwithstan ding a claim by Kreps and Robert Wilson (1982). Moreover, the spirit of stru...

  20. Endogenous sequential cortical activity evoked by visual stimuli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo-Reid, Luis; Miller, Jae-Eun Kang; Hamm, Jordan P; Jackson, Jesse; Yuste, Rafael

    2015-06-10

    Although the functional properties of individual neurons in primary visual cortex have been studied intensely, little is known about how neuronal groups could encode changing visual stimuli using temporal activity patterns. To explore this, we used in vivo two-photon calcium imaging to record the activity of neuronal populations in primary visual cortex of awake mice in the presence and absence of visual stimulation. Multidimensional analysis of the network activity allowed us to identify neuronal ensembles defined as groups of cells firing in synchrony. These synchronous groups of neurons were themselves activated in sequential temporal patterns, which repeated at much higher proportions than chance and were triggered by specific visual stimuli such as natural visual scenes. Interestingly, sequential patterns were also present in recordings of spontaneous activity without any sensory stimulation and were accompanied by precise firing sequences at the single-cell level. Moreover, intrinsic dynamics could be used to predict the occurrence of future neuronal ensembles. Our data demonstrate that visual stimuli recruit similar sequential patterns to the ones observed spontaneously, consistent with the hypothesis that already existing Hebbian cell assemblies firing in predefined temporal sequences could be the microcircuit substrate that encodes visual percepts changing in time. Copyright © 2015 Carrillo-Reid et al.

  1. Bayesian adaptive methods for clinical trials

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berry, Scott M

    2011-01-01

    .... One is that Bayesian approaches implemented with the majority of their informative content coming from the current data, and not any external prior informa- tion, typically have good frequentist properties (e.g...

  2. A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buslik, A.

    1994-01-01

    A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given

  3. Structure-based bayesian sparse reconstruction

    KAUST Repository

    Quadeer, Ahmed Abdul; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.

    2012-01-01

    Sparse signal reconstruction algorithms have attracted research attention due to their wide applications in various fields. In this paper, we present a simple Bayesian approach that utilizes the sparsity constraint and a priori statistical

  4. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, Vikas; Farr, Anna Charisse; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K D V

    2014-01-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++

  5. Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2009-02-01

    Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly, it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism and thus avoids essentially the local-trap problem suffered by conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches in learning Bayesian networks. Secondly, it falls into the class of dynamic importance sampling algorithms; the network features can be inferred by dynamically weighted averaging the samples generated in the learning process, and the resulting estimates can have much lower variation than the single model-based estimates. The numerical results indicate that our approach can mix much faster over the space of Bayesian networks than the conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

    2014-03-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

  7. Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji

    2018-01-01

    An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.

  8. Correct Bayesian and frequentist intervals are similar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1986-01-01

    This paper argues that Bayesians and frequentists will normally reach numerically similar conclusions, when dealing with vague data or sparse data. It is shown that both statistical methodologies can deal reasonably with vague data. With sparse data, in many important practical cases Bayesian interval estimates and frequentist confidence intervals are approximately equal, although with discrete data the frequentist intervals are somewhat longer. This is not to say that the two methodologies are equally easy to use: The construction of a frequentist confidence interval may require new theoretical development. Bayesians methods typically require numerical integration, perhaps over many variables. Also, Bayesian can easily fall into the trap of over-optimism about their amount of prior knowledge. But in cases where both intervals are found correctly, the two intervals are usually not very different. (orig.)

  9. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  10. An overview on Approximate Bayesian computation*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baragatti Meïli

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation techniques, also called likelihood-free methods, are one of the most satisfactory approach to intractable likelihood problems. This overview presents recent results since its introduction about ten years ago in population genetics.

  11. Bayesian Action&Perception: Representing the World in the Brain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald E. Loeb

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Theories of perception seek to explain how sensory data are processed to identify previously experienced objects, but they usually do not consider the decisions and effort that goes into acquiring the sensory data. Identification of objects according to their tactile properties requires active exploratory movements. The sensory data thereby obtained depend on the details of those movements, which human subjects change rapidly and seemingly capriciously. Bayesian Exploration is an algorithm that uses prior experience to decide which next exploratory movement should provide the most useful data to disambiguate the most likely possibilities. In previous studies, a simple robot equipped with a biomimetic tactile sensor and operated according to Bayesian Exploration performed in a manner similar to and actually better than humans on a texture identification task. Expanding on this, Bayesian Action&Perception refers to the construction and querying of an associative memory of previously experienced entities containing both sensory data and the motor programs that elicited them. We hypothesize that this memory can be queried i to identify useful next exploratory movements during identification of an unknown entity (action for perception or ii to characterize whether an unknown entity is fit for purpose (perception for action or iii to recall what actions might be feasible for a known entity (Gibsonian affordance. The biomimetic design of this mechatronic system may provide insights into the neuronal basis of biological action and perception.

  12. Advances in Bayesian Model Based Clustering Using Particle Learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merl, D M

    2009-11-19

    Recent work by Carvalho, Johannes, Lopes and Polson and Carvalho, Lopes, Polson and Taddy introduced a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) alternative to traditional iterative Monte Carlo strategies (e.g. MCMC and EM) for Bayesian inference for a large class of dynamic models. The basis of SMC techniques involves representing the underlying inference problem as one of state space estimation, thus giving way to inference via particle filtering. The key insight of Carvalho et al was to construct the sequence of filtering distributions so as to make use of the posterior predictive distribution of the observable, a distribution usually only accessible in certain Bayesian settings. Access to this distribution allows a reversal of the usual propagate and resample steps characteristic of many SMC methods, thereby alleviating to a large extent many problems associated with particle degeneration. Furthermore, Carvalho et al point out that for many conjugate models the posterior distribution of the static variables can be parametrized in terms of [recursively defined] sufficient statistics of the previously observed data. For models where such sufficient statistics exist, particle learning as it is being called, is especially well suited for the analysis of streaming data do to the relative invariance of its algorithmic complexity with the number of data observations. Through a particle learning approach, a statistical model can be fit to data as the data is arriving, allowing at any instant during the observation process direct quantification of uncertainty surrounding underlying model parameters. Here we describe the use of a particle learning approach for fitting a standard Bayesian semiparametric mixture model as described in Carvalho, Lopes, Polson and Taddy. In Section 2 we briefly review the previously presented particle learning algorithm for the case of a Dirichlet process mixture of multivariate normals. In Section 3 we describe several novel extensions to the original

  13. ANUBIS: artificial neuromodulation using a Bayesian inference system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Benjamin J H; Saaj, Chakravarthini M; Allouis, Elie

    2013-01-01

    Gain tuning is a crucial part of controller design and depends not only on an accurate understanding of the system in question, but also on the designer's ability to predict what disturbances and other perturbations the system will encounter throughout its operation. This letter presents ANUBIS (artificial neuromodulation using a Bayesian inference system), a novel biologically inspired technique for automatically tuning controller parameters in real time. ANUBIS is based on the Bayesian brain concept and modifies it by incorporating a model of the neuromodulatory system comprising four artificial neuromodulators. It has been applied to the controller of EchinoBot, a prototype walking rover for Martian exploration. ANUBIS has been implemented at three levels of the controller; gait generation, foot trajectory planning using Bézier curves, and foot trajectory tracking using a terminal sliding mode controller. We compare the results to a similar system that has been tuned using a multilayer perceptron. The use of Bayesian inference means that the system retains mathematical interpretability, unlike other intelligent tuning techniques, which use neural networks, fuzzy logic, or evolutionary algorithms. The simulation results show that ANUBIS provides significant improvements in efficiency and adaptability of the three controller components; it allows the robot to react to obstacles and uncertainties faster than the system tuned with the MLP, while maintaining stability and accuracy. As well as advancing rover autonomy, ANUBIS could also be applied to other situations where operating conditions are likely to change or cannot be accurately modeled in advance, such as process control. In addition, it demonstrates one way in which neuromodulation could fit into the Bayesian brain framework.

  14. Bayesian probability theory and inverse problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopec, S.

    1994-01-01

    Bayesian probability theory is applied to approximate solving of the inverse problems. In order to solve the moment problem with the noisy data, the entropic prior is used. The expressions for the solution and its error bounds are presented. When the noise level tends to zero, the Bayesian solution tends to the classic maximum entropy solution in the L 2 norm. The way of using spline prior is also shown. (author)

  15. A Bayesian classifier for symbol recognition

    OpenAIRE

    Barrat , Sabine; Tabbone , Salvatore; Nourrissier , Patrick

    2007-01-01

    URL : http://www.buyans.com/POL/UploadedFile/134_9977.pdf; International audience; We present in this paper an original adaptation of Bayesian networks to symbol recognition problem. More precisely, a descriptor combination method, which enables to improve significantly the recognition rate compared to the recognition rates obtained by each descriptor, is presented. In this perspective, we use a simple Bayesian classifier, called naive Bayes. In fact, probabilistic graphical models, more spec...

  16. Bayesian Modeling of a Human MMORPG Player

    Science.gov (United States)

    Synnaeve, Gabriel; Bessière, Pierre

    2011-03-01

    This paper describes an application of Bayesian programming to the control of an autonomous avatar in a multiplayer role-playing game (the example is based on World of Warcraft). We model a particular task, which consists of choosing what to do and to select which target in a situation where allies and foes are present. We explain the model in Bayesian programming and show how we could learn the conditional probabilities from data gathered during human-played sessions.

  17. Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-09

    inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle

  18. Bayesian target tracking based on particle filter

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    For being able to deal with the nonlinear or non-Gaussian problems, particle filters have been studied by many researchers. Based on particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) proposal function is applied to Bayesian target tracking. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, the resampling step, etc novel techniques are also introduced into Bayesian target tracking. And the simulation results confirm the improved particle filter with these techniques outperforms the basic one.

  19. MCMC for parameters estimation by bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ait Saadi, H.; Ykhlef, F.; Guessoum, A.

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses the parameter estimation for dynamic system by a Bayesian approach associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). The MCMC methods are powerful for approximating complex integrals, simulating joint distributions, and the estimation of marginal posterior distributions, or posterior means. The MetropolisHastings algorithm has been widely used in Bayesian inference to approximate posterior densities. Calibrating the proposal distribution is one of the main issues of MCMC simulation in order to accelerate the convergence.

  20. Bayesian Networks for Modeling Dredging Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-01

    years, that algorithms have been developed to solve these problems efficiently. Most modern Bayesian network software uses junction tree (a.k.a. join... software was used to develop the network . This is by no means an exhaustive list of Bayesian network applications, but it is representative of recent...characteristic node (SCN), state- defining node ( SDN ), effect node (EFN), or value node. The five types of nodes can be described as follows: ERDC/EL TR-11

  1. Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 369, č. 1 (2016), s. 532-547 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Ideal distribution * Minimum cross-entropy principle * Bayesian conditioning * Kullback-Leibler divergence * Bayesian nonparametric modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.832, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/karny-0463052.pdf

  2. A Bayesian Method for Weighted Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Lo, Albert Y.

    1993-01-01

    Bayesian statistical inference for sampling from weighted distribution models is studied. Small-sample Bayesian bootstrap clone (BBC) approximations to the posterior distribution are discussed. A second-order property for the BBC in unweighted i.i.d. sampling is given. A consequence is that BBC approximations to a posterior distribution of the mean and to the sampling distribution of the sample average, can be made asymptotically accurate by a proper choice of the random variables that genera...

  3. Sequential Probability Ratio Testing with Power Projective Base Method Improves Decision-Making for BCI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Rong

    2017-01-01

    Obtaining a fast and reliable decision is an important issue in brain-computer interfaces (BCI), particularly in practical real-time applications such as wheelchair or neuroprosthetic control. In this study, the EEG signals were firstly analyzed with a power projective base method. Then we were applied a decision-making model, the sequential probability ratio testing (SPRT), for single-trial classification of motor imagery movement events. The unique strength of this proposed classification method lies in its accumulative process, which increases the discriminative power as more and more evidence is observed over time. The properties of the method were illustrated on thirteen subjects' recordings from three datasets. Results showed that our proposed power projective method outperformed two benchmark methods for every subject. Moreover, with sequential classifier, the accuracies across subjects were significantly higher than that with nonsequential ones. The average maximum accuracy of the SPRT method was 84.1%, as compared with 82.3% accuracy for the sequential Bayesian (SB) method. The proposed SPRT method provides an explicit relationship between stopping time, thresholds, and error, which is important for balancing the time-accuracy trade-off. These results suggest SPRT would be useful in speeding up decision-making while trading off errors in BCI. PMID:29348781

  4. Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

    2013-02-01

    A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

  5. MACROECONOMIC FORECASTING USING BAYESIAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Tutberidze

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available There are many arguments that can be advanced to support the forecasting activities of business entities. The underlying argument in favor of forecasting is that managerial decisions are significantly dependent on proper evaluation of future trends as market conditions are constantly changing and require a detailed analysis of future dynamics. The article discusses the importance of using reasonable macro-econometric tool by suggesting the idea of conditional forecasting through a Vector Autoregressive (VAR modeling framework. Under this framework, a macroeconomic model for Georgian economy is constructed with the few variables believed to be shaping business environment. Based on the model, forecasts of macroeconomic variables are produced, and three types of scenarios are analyzed - a baseline and two alternative ones. The results of the study provide confirmatory evidence that suggested methodology is adequately addressing the research phenomenon and can be used widely by business entities in responding their strategic and operational planning challenges. Given this set-up, it is shown empirically that Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach provides reasonable forecasts for the variables of interest.

  6. Filtering in Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Morten Nonboe; Andersen, Rasmus Orum; Wheeler, Kevin

    2000-01-01

    We implement a 2-time slice dynamic Bayesian network (2T-DBN) framework and make a 1-D state estimation simulation, an extension of the experiment in (v.d. Merwe et al., 2000) and compare different filtering techniques. Furthermore, we demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid DBN is possible by simulating fault detection in a watertank system, an extension of the experiment in (Koller & Lerner, 2000) using a hybrid 2T-DBN. In both experiments, we perform approximate inference using standard filtering techniques, Monte Carlo methods and combinations of these. In the watertank simulation, we also demonstrate the use of 'non-strict' Rao-Blackwellisation. We show that the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and UKF in a particle filtering framework outperform the generic particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and EKF in a particle filtering framework with respect to accuracy in terms of estimation RMSE and sensitivity with respect to choice of network structure. Especially we demonstrate the superiority of UKF in a PF framework when our beliefs of how data was generated are wrong. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of data noise in the watertank simulation using UKF and PFUKD and show that the algorithms are more sensitive to changes in the measurement noise level that the process noise level. Theory and implementation is based on (v.d. Merwe et al., 2000).

  7. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of North Atlantic windiness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanem, E.; Breivik, O. N.

    2013-03-01

    Extreme weather conditions represent serious natural hazards to ship operations and may be the direct cause or contributing factor to maritime accidents. Such severe environmental conditions can be taken into account in ship design and operational windows can be defined that limits hazardous operations to less extreme conditions. Nevertheless, possible changes in the statistics of extreme weather conditions, possibly due to anthropogenic climate change, represent an additional hazard to ship operations that is less straightforward to account for in a consistent way. Obviously, there are large uncertainties as to how future climate change will affect the extreme weather conditions at sea and there is a need for stochastic models that can describe the variability in both space and time at various scales of the environmental conditions. Previously, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models have been developed to describe the variability and complex dependence structures of significant wave height in space and time. These models were found to perform reasonably well and provided some interesting results, in particular, pertaining to long-term trends in the wave climate. In this paper, a similar framework is applied to oceanic windiness and the spatial and temporal variability of the 10-m wind speed over an area in the North Atlantic ocean is investigated. When the results from the model for North Atlantic windiness is compared to the results for significant wave height over the same area, it is interesting to observe that whereas an increasing trend in significant wave height was identified, no statistically significant long-term trend was estimated in windiness. This may indicate that the increase in significant wave height is not due to an increase in locally generated wind waves, but rather to increased swell. This observation is also consistent with studies that have suggested a poleward shift of the main storm tracks.

  8. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of North Atlantic windiness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Vanem

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather conditions represent serious natural hazards to ship operations and may be the direct cause or contributing factor to maritime accidents. Such severe environmental conditions can be taken into account in ship design and operational windows can be defined that limits hazardous operations to less extreme conditions. Nevertheless, possible changes in the statistics of extreme weather conditions, possibly due to anthropogenic climate change, represent an additional hazard to ship operations that is less straightforward to account for in a consistent way. Obviously, there are large uncertainties as to how future climate change will affect the extreme weather conditions at sea and there is a need for stochastic models that can describe the variability in both space and time at various scales of the environmental conditions. Previously, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models have been developed to describe the variability and complex dependence structures of significant wave height in space and time. These models were found to perform reasonably well and provided some interesting results, in particular, pertaining to long-term trends in the wave climate. In this paper, a similar framework is applied to oceanic windiness and the spatial and temporal variability of the 10-m wind speed over an area in the North Atlantic ocean is investigated. When the results from the model for North Atlantic windiness is compared to the results for significant wave height over the same area, it is interesting to observe that whereas an increasing trend in significant wave height was identified, no statistically significant long-term trend was estimated in windiness. This may indicate that the increase in significant wave height is not due to an increase in locally generated wind waves, but rather to increased swell. This observation is also consistent with studies that have suggested a poleward shift of the main storm tracks.

  9. EXONEST: The Bayesian Exoplanetary Explorer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin H. Knuth

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The fields of astronomy and astrophysics are currently engaged in an unprecedented era of discovery as recent missions have revealed thousands of exoplanets orbiting other stars. While the Kepler Space Telescope mission has enabled most of these exoplanets to be detected by identifying transiting events, exoplanets often exhibit additional photometric effects that can be used to improve the characterization of exoplanets. The EXONEST Exoplanetary Explorer is a Bayesian exoplanet inference engine based on nested sampling and originally designed to analyze archived Kepler Space Telescope and CoRoT (Convection Rotation et Transits planétaires exoplanet mission data. We discuss the EXONEST software package and describe how it accommodates plug-and-play models of exoplanet-associated photometric effects for the purpose of exoplanet detection, characterization and scientific hypothesis testing. The current suite of models allows for both circular and eccentric orbits in conjunction with photometric effects, such as the primary transit and secondary eclipse, reflected light, thermal emissions, ellipsoidal variations, Doppler beaming and superrotation. We discuss our new efforts to expand the capabilities of the software to include more subtle photometric effects involving reflected and refracted light. We discuss the EXONEST inference engine design and introduce our plans to port the current MATLAB-based EXONEST software package over to the next generation Exoplanetary Explorer, which will be a Python-based open source project with the capability to employ third-party plug-and-play models of exoplanet-related photometric effects.

  10. Maximum entropy and Bayesian methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, C.R.; Erickson, G.J.; Neudorfer, P.O.

    1992-01-01

    Bayesian probability theory and Maximum Entropy methods are at the core of a new view of scientific inference. These 'new' ideas, along with the revolution in computational methods afforded by modern computers allow astronomers, electrical engineers, image processors of any type, NMR chemists and physicists, and anyone at all who has to deal with incomplete and noisy data, to take advantage of methods that, in the past, have been applied only in some areas of theoretical physics. The title workshops have been the focus of a group of researchers from many different fields, and this diversity is evident in this book. There are tutorial and theoretical papers, and applications in a very wide variety of fields. Almost any instance of dealing with incomplete and noisy data can be usefully treated by these methods, and many areas of theoretical research are being enhanced by the thoughtful application of Bayes' theorem. Contributions contained in this volume present a state-of-the-art overview that will be influential and useful for many years to come

  11. Joint analysis of input and parametric uncertainties in watershed water quality modeling: A formal Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Feng; Zheng, Yi

    2018-06-01

    Significant Input uncertainty is a major source of error in watershed water quality (WWQ) modeling. It remains challenging to address the input uncertainty in a rigorous Bayesian framework. This study develops the Bayesian Analysis of Input and Parametric Uncertainties (BAIPU), an approach for the joint analysis of input and parametric uncertainties through a tight coupling of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). The formal likelihood function for this approach is derived considering a lag-1 autocorrelated, heteroscedastic, and Skew Exponential Power (SEP) distributed error model. A series of numerical experiments were performed based on a synthetic nitrate pollution case and on a real study case in the Newport Bay Watershed, California. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM(ZS)) were used as the representative WWQ model and MCMC algorithm, respectively. The major findings include the following: (1) the BAIPU can be implemented and used to appropriately identify the uncertain parameters and characterize the predictive uncertainty; (2) the compensation effect between the input and parametric uncertainties can seriously mislead the modeling based management decisions, if the input uncertainty is not explicitly accounted for; (3) the BAIPU accounts for the interaction between the input and parametric uncertainties and therefore provides more accurate calibration and uncertainty results than a sequential analysis of the uncertainties; and (4) the BAIPU quantifies the credibility of different input assumptions on a statistical basis and can be implemented as an effective inverse modeling approach to the joint inference of parameters and inputs.

  12. A Bayesian Combined Model for Time-Dependent Turning Movement Proportions Estimation at Intersections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengpeng Jiao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Time-dependent turning movement flows are very important input data for intelligent transportation systems but are impossible to be detected directly through current traffic surveillance systems. Existing estimation models have proved to be not accurate and reliable enough during all intervals. An improved way to address this problem is to develop a combined model framework that can integrate multiple submodels running simultaneously. This paper first presents a back propagation neural network model to estimate dynamic turning movements, as well as the self-adaptive learning rate approach and the gradient descent with momentum method for solving. Second, this paper develops an efficient Kalman filtering model and designs a revised sequential Kalman filtering algorithm. Based on the Bayesian method using both historical data and currently estimated results for error calibration, this paper further integrates above two submodels into a Bayesian combined model framework and proposes a corresponding algorithm. A field survey is implemented at an intersection in Beijing city to collect both time series of link counts and actual time-dependent turning movement flows, including historical and present data. The reported estimation results show that the Bayesian combined model is much more accurate and stable than other models.

  13. Inverse problems in the Bayesian framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki; Kaipio, Jari P

    2014-01-01

    The history of Bayesian methods dates back to the original works of Reverend Thomas Bayes and Pierre-Simon Laplace: the former laid down some of the basic principles on inverse probability in his classic article ‘An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances’ that was read posthumously in the Royal Society in 1763. Laplace, on the other hand, in his ‘Memoirs on inverse probability’ of 1774 developed the idea of updating beliefs and wrote down the celebrated Bayes’ formula in the form we know today. Although not identified yet as a framework for investigating inverse problems, Laplace used the formalism very much in the spirit it is used today in the context of inverse problems, e.g., in his study of the distribution of comets. With the evolution of computational tools, Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular in all fields of human knowledge in which conclusions need to be drawn based on incomplete and noisy data. Needless to say, inverse problems, almost by definition, fall into this category. Systematic work for developing a Bayesian inverse problem framework can arguably be traced back to the 1980s, (the original first edition being published by Elsevier in 1987), although articles on Bayesian methodology applied to inverse problems, in particular in geophysics, had appeared much earlier. Today, as testified by the articles in this special issue, the Bayesian methodology as a framework for considering inverse problems has gained a lot of popularity, and it has integrated very successfully with many traditional inverse problems ideas and techniques, providing novel ways to interpret and implement traditional procedures in numerical analysis, computational statistics, signal analysis and data assimilation. The range of applications where the Bayesian framework has been fundamental goes from geophysics, engineering and imaging to astronomy, life sciences and economy, and continues to grow. There is no question that Bayesian

  14. A Dynamic Bayesian Network Model for the Production and Inventory Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Ji-Sun; Takazaki, Noriyuki; Lee, Tae-Hong; Kim, Jin-Il; Lee, Hee-Hyol

    In general, the production quantities and delivered goods are changed randomly and then the total stock is also changed randomly. This paper deals with the production and inventory control using the Dynamic Bayesian Network. Bayesian Network is a probabilistic model which represents the qualitative dependence between two or more random variables by the graph structure, and indicates the quantitative relations between individual variables by the conditional probability. The probabilistic distribution of the total stock is calculated through the propagation of the probability on the network. Moreover, an adjusting rule of the production quantities to maintain the probability of a lower limit and a ceiling of the total stock to certain values is shown.

  15. A Bayesian negotiation model for quality and price in a multi-consumer context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rufo, M.J.; Martín, J.; Pérez, C.J.

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian decision theory plays a significant role in a large number of applications that have as main aim decision making. At the same time, negotiation is a process of making joint decisions that has one of its main foundations in decision theory. In this context, an important issue involved in industrial and commercial applications is product reliability/quality demonstration. The goal is, among others, product commercialization with the best possible price. This paper provides a Bayesian sequential negotiation model in the context of sale of a product based on two characteristics: product price and reliability/quality testing. The model assumes several parties, a manufacturer and different consumers, who could be considered adversaries. In addition, a general setting for which the manufacturer offers a product batch to the consumers is taken. Both the manufacturer and the consumers have to use their prior beliefs as well as their preferences. Sometimes, the model will require to update the previous beliefs. This can be made through the corresponding posterior distribution. Anyway, the main aim is that at least one consumer accepts the product batch based on either product price or product price and reliability/quality. The general model is solved from the manufacturer viewpoint. Thus a general approach that allows us to calculate an optimal price and sample size for testing is provided. Finally, two applications show how the proposed technique can be applied in practice. - Highlights: • A general sequential Bayesian model of decision has been developed. • Product price and reliability/quality testing have been considered. • An original approach is implemented in order to obtain appropriate optimal values. • Distributions widely used in reliability and quality contexts have been taken.

  16. Context-dependent decision-making: a simple Bayesian model

    OpenAIRE

    Lloyd, Kevin; Leslie, David S.

    2013-01-01

    Many phenomena in animal learning can be explained by a context-learning process whereby an animal learns about different patterns of relationship between environmental variables. Differentiating between such environmental regimes or ‘contexts’ allows an animal to rapidly adapt its behaviour when context changes occur. The current work views animals as making sequential inferences about current context identity in a world assumed to be relatively stable but also capable of rapid switches to p...

  17. Accurately controlled sequential self-folding structures by polystyrene film

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Dongping; Yang, Yang; Chen, Yong; Lan, Xing; Tice, Jesse

    2017-08-01

    Four-dimensional (4D) printing overcomes the traditional fabrication limitations by designing heterogeneous materials to enable the printed structures evolve over time (the fourth dimension) under external stimuli. Here, we present a simple 4D printing of self-folding structures that can be sequentially and accurately folded. When heated above their glass transition temperature pre-strained polystyrene films shrink along the XY plane. In our process silver ink traces printed on the film are used to provide heat stimuli by conducting current to trigger the self-folding behavior. The parameters affecting the folding process are studied and discussed. Sequential folding and accurately controlled folding angles are achieved by using printed ink traces and angle lock design. Theoretical analyses are done to guide the design of the folding processes. Programmable structures such as a lock and a three-dimensional antenna are achieved to test the feasibility and potential applications of this method. These self-folding structures change their shapes after fabrication under controlled stimuli (electric current) and have potential applications in the fields of electronics, consumer devices, and robotics. Our design and fabrication method provides an easy way by using silver ink printed on polystyrene films to 4D print self-folding structures for electrically induced sequential folding with angular control.

  18. Structural and Functional Impacts of ER Coactivator Sequential Recruitment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Ping; Wang, Zhao; Feng, Qin; Chou, Chao-Kai; Pintilie, Grigore D; Shen, Hong; Foulds, Charles E; Fan, Guizhen; Serysheva, Irina; Ludtke, Steven J; Schmid, Michael F; Hung, Mien-Chie; Chiu, Wah; O'Malley, Bert W

    2017-09-07

    Nuclear receptors recruit multiple coactivators sequentially to activate transcription. This "ordered" recruitment allows different coactivator activities to engage the nuclear receptor complex at different steps of transcription. Estrogen receptor (ER) recruits steroid receptor coactivator-3 (SRC-3) primary coactivator and secondary coactivators, p300/CBP and CARM1. CARM1 recruitment lags behind the binding of SRC-3 and p300 to ER. Combining cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) structure analysis and biochemical approaches, we demonstrate that there is a close crosstalk between early- and late-recruited coactivators. The sequential recruitment of CARM1 not only adds a protein arginine methyltransferase activity to the ER-coactivator complex, it also alters the structural organization of the pre-existing ERE/ERα/SRC-3/p300 complex. It induces a p300 conformational change and significantly increases p300 HAT activity on histone H3K18 residues, which, in turn, promotes CARM1 methylation activity on H3R17 residues to enhance transcriptional activity. This study reveals a structural role for a coactivator sequential recruitment and biochemical process in ER-mediated transcription. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Sequential sputtered Co-HfO{sub 2} granular films

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chadha, M.; Ng, V.

    2017-03-15

    A systematic study of magnetic, magneto-transport and micro-structural properties of Co-HfO{sub 2} granular films fabricated by sequential sputtering is presented. We demonstrate reduction in ferromagnetic-oxide formation by using HfO{sub 2} as the insulting matrix. Microstructure evaluation of the films showed that the film structure consisted of discrete hcp-Co grains embedded in HfO{sub 2} matrix. Films with varying compositions were prepared and their macroscopic properties were studied. We correlate the variation in these properties to the variation in film microstructure. Our study shows that Co-HfO{sub 2} films with reduced cobalt oxide and varying properties can be prepared using sequential sputtering technique. - Highlights: • Co-HfO{sub 2} granular films were prepared using sequential sputtering. • A reduction in ferromagnetic-oxide formation is observed. • Co-HfO{sub 2} films display superparamagnetism and tunnelling magneto-resistance. • Varying macroscopic properties were achieved by changing film composition. • Applications can be found in moderate MR sensors and high –frequency RF devices.

  20. Effect of sequential isoproturon pulse exposure on Scenedesmus vacuolatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallotton, Nathalie; Eggen, Rik Ilda Lambertus; Chèvre, Nathalie

    2009-04-01

    Aquatic organisms are typically exposed to fluctuating concentrations of herbicides in streams. To assess the effects on algae of repeated peak exposure to the herbicide isoproturon, we subjected the alga Scenedesmus vacuolatus to two sequential pulse exposure scenarios. Effects on growth and on the inhibition of the effective quantum yield of photosystem II (PSII) were measured. In the first scenario, algae were exposed to short, 5-h pulses at high isoproturon concentrations (400 and 1000 microg/l), each followed by a recovery period of 18 h, while the second scenario consisted of 22.5-h pulses at lower concentrations (60 and 120 microg/l), alternating with short recovery periods (1.5 h). In addition, any changes in the sensitivity of the algae to isoproturon following sequential pulses were examined by determining the growth rate-EC(50) prior to and following exposure. In both exposure scenarios, we found that algal growth and its effective quantum yield were systematically inhibited during the exposures and that these effects were reversible. Sequential pulses to isoproturon could be considered a sequence of independent events. Nevertheless, a consequence of inhibited growth during the repeated exposures is the cumulative decrease in biomass production. Furthermore, in the second scenario, when the sequence of long pulses began to approach a scenario of continuous exposure, a slight increase in the tolerance of the algae to isoproturon was observed. These findings indicated that sequential pulses do affect algae during each pulse exposure, even if algae recover between the exposures. These observations could support an improved risk assessment of fluctuating exposures to reversibly acting herbicides.

  1. STUDIES IN ASTRONOMICAL TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. VI. BAYESIAN BLOCK REPRESENTATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scargle, Jeffrey D. [Space Science and Astrobiology Division, MS 245-3, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035-1000 (United States); Norris, Jay P. [Physics Department, Boise State University, 2110 University Drive, Boise, ID 83725-1570 (United States); Jackson, Brad [The Center for Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Mathematics, San Jose State University, One Washington Square, MH 308, San Jose, CA 95192-0103 (United States); Chiang, James, E-mail: jeffrey.d.scargle@nasa.gov [W. W. Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory, Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Department of Physics and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States)

    2013-02-20

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piecewise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by Arias-Castro et al. In the spirit of Reproducible Research all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as supplementary material.

  2. Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Norris, Jay P.; Jackson, Brad; Chiang, James

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks [Scargle 1998]-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piece- wise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by [Arias-Castro, Donoho and Huo 2003]. In the spirit of Reproducible Research [Donoho et al. (2008)] all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as auxiliary material.

  3. Bayesian inference for Markov jump processes with informative observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golightly, Andrew; Wilkinson, Darren J

    2015-04-01

    In this paper we consider the problem of parameter inference for Markov jump process (MJP) representations of stochastic kinetic models. Since transition probabilities are intractable for most processes of interest yet forward simulation is straightforward, Bayesian inference typically proceeds through computationally intensive methods such as (particle) MCMC. Such methods ostensibly require the ability to simulate trajectories from the conditioned jump process. When observations are highly informative, use of the forward simulator is likely to be inefficient and may even preclude an exact (simulation based) analysis. We therefore propose three methods for improving the efficiency of simulating conditioned jump processes. A conditioned hazard is derived based on an approximation to the jump process, and used to generate end-point conditioned trajectories for use inside an importance sampling algorithm. We also adapt a recently proposed sequential Monte Carlo scheme to our problem. Essentially, trajectories are reweighted at a set of intermediate time points, with more weight assigned to trajectories that are consistent with the next observation. We consider two implementations of this approach, based on two continuous approximations of the MJP. We compare these constructs for a simple tractable jump process before using them to perform inference for a Lotka-Volterra system. The best performing construct is used to infer the parameters governing a simple model of motility regulation in Bacillus subtilis.

  4. STUDIES IN ASTRONOMICAL TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. VI. BAYESIAN BLOCK REPRESENTATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Norris, Jay P.; Jackson, Brad; Chiang, James

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it—an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks—that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piecewise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by Arias-Castro et al. In the spirit of Reproducible Research all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as supplementary material.

  5. Bayesian methods to estimate urban growth potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jordan W.; Smart, Lindsey S.; Dorning, Monica; Dupéy, Lauren Nicole; Méley, Andréanne; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

    2017-01-01

    Urban growth often influences the production of ecosystem services. The impacts of urbanization on landscapes can subsequently affect landowners’ perceptions, values and decisions regarding their land. Within land-use and land-change research, very few models of dynamic landscape-scale processes like urbanization incorporate empirically-grounded landowner decision-making processes. Very little attention has focused on the heterogeneous decision-making processes that aggregate to influence broader-scale patterns of urbanization. We examine the land-use tradeoffs faced by individual landowners in one of the United States’ most rapidly urbanizing regions − the urban area surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina. We focus on the land-use decisions of non-industrial private forest owners located across the region’s development gradient. A discrete choice experiment is used to determine the critical factors influencing individual forest owners’ intent to sell their undeveloped properties across a series of experimentally varied scenarios of urban growth. Data are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The estimates derived from the survey data are used to modify a spatially-explicit trend-based urban development potential model, derived from remotely-sensed imagery and observed changes in the region’s socioeconomic and infrastructural characteristics between 2000 and 2011. This modeling approach combines the theoretical underpinnings of behavioral economics with spatiotemporal data describing a region’s historical development patterns. By integrating empirical social preference data into spatially-explicit urban growth models, we begin to more realistically capture processes as well as patterns that drive the location, magnitude and rates of urban growth.

  6. Bayesian analogy with relational transformations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Hongjing; Chen, Dawn; Holyoak, Keith J

    2012-07-01

    How can humans acquire relational representations that enable analogical inference and other forms of high-level reasoning? Using comparative relations as a model domain, we explore the possibility that bottom-up learning mechanisms applied to objects coded as feature vectors can yield representations of relations sufficient to solve analogy problems. We introduce Bayesian analogy with relational transformations (BART) and apply the model to the task of learning first-order comparative relations (e.g., larger, smaller, fiercer, meeker) from a set of animal pairs. Inputs are coded by vectors of continuous-valued features, based either on human magnitude ratings, normed feature ratings (De Deyne et al., 2008), or outputs of the topics model (Griffiths, Steyvers, & Tenenbaum, 2007). Bootstrapping from empirical priors, the model is able to induce first-order relations represented as probabilistic weight distributions, even when given positive examples only. These learned representations allow classification of novel instantiations of the relations and yield a symbolic distance effect of the sort obtained with both humans and other primates. BART then transforms its learned weight distributions by importance-guided mapping, thereby placing distinct dimensions into correspondence. These transformed representations allow BART to reliably solve 4-term analogies (e.g., larger:smaller::fiercer:meeker), a type of reasoning that is arguably specific to humans. Our results provide a proof-of-concept that structured analogies can be solved with representations induced from unstructured feature vectors by mechanisms that operate in a largely bottom-up fashion. We discuss potential implications for algorithmic and neural models of relational thinking, as well as for the evolution of abstract thought. Copyright 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  7. Bayesian tomographic reconstruction of microsystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salem, Sofia Fekih; Vabre, Alexandre; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali

    2007-01-01

    The microtomography by X ray transmission plays an increasingly dominating role in the study and the understanding of microsystems. Within this framework, an experimental setup of high resolution X ray microtomography was developed at CEA-List to quantify the physical parameters related to the fluids flow in microsystems. Several difficulties rise from the nature of experimental data collected on this setup: enhanced error measurements due to various physical phenomena occurring during the image formation (diffusion, beam hardening), and specificities of the setup (limited angle, partial view of the object, weak contrast).To reconstruct the object we must solve an inverse problem. This inverse problem is known to be ill-posed. It therefore needs to be regularized by introducing prior information. The main prior information we account for is that the object is composed of a finite known number of different materials distributed in compact regions. This a priori information is introduced via a Gauss-Markov field for the contrast distributions with a hidden Potts-Markov field for the class materials in the Bayesian estimation framework. The computations are done by using an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique.In this paper, we present first the basic steps of the proposed algorithms. Then we focus on one of the main steps in any iterative reconstruction method which is the computation of forward and adjoint operators (projection and backprojection). A fast implementation of these two operators is crucial for the real application of the method. We give some details on the fast computation of these steps and show some preliminary results of simulations

  8. Objective Bayesianism and the Maximum Entropy Principle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Williamson

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective Bayesian epistemology invokes three norms: the strengths of our beliefs should be probabilities; they should be calibrated to our evidence of physical probabilities; and they should otherwise equivocate sufficiently between the basic propositions that we can express. The three norms are sometimes explicated by appealing to the maximum entropy principle, which says that a belief function should be a probability function, from all those that are calibrated to evidence, that has maximum entropy. However, the three norms of objective Bayesianism are usually justified in different ways. In this paper, we show that the three norms can all be subsumed under a single justification in terms of minimising worst-case expected loss. This, in turn, is equivalent to maximising a generalised notion of entropy. We suggest that requiring language invariance, in addition to minimising worst-case expected loss, motivates maximisation of standard entropy as opposed to maximisation of other instances of generalised entropy. Our argument also provides a qualified justification for updating degrees of belief by Bayesian conditionalisation. However, conditional probabilities play a less central part in the objective Bayesian account than they do under the subjective view of Bayesianism, leading to a reduced role for Bayes’ Theorem.

  9. A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2015-03-01

    In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).

  10. Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya

    2018-03-01

    Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.

  11. Dihydroazulene photoswitch operating in sequential tunneling regime

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broman, Søren Lindbæk; Lara-Avila, Samuel; Thisted, Christine Lindbjerg

    2012-01-01

    to electrodes so that the electron transport goes by sequential tunneling. To assure weak coupling, the DHA switching kernel is modified by incorporating p-MeSC6H4 end-groups. Molecules are prepared by Suzuki cross-couplings on suitable halogenated derivatives of DHA. The synthesis presents an expansion of our......, incorporating a p-MeSC6H4 anchoring group in one end, has been placed in a silver nanogap. Conductance measurements justify that transport through both DHA (high resistivity) and VHF (low resistivity) forms goes by sequential tunneling. The switching is fairly reversible and reenterable; after more than 20 ON...

  12. Asynchronous Operators of Sequential Logic Venjunction & Sequention

    CERN Document Server

    Vasyukevich, Vadim

    2011-01-01

    This book is dedicated to new mathematical instruments assigned for logical modeling of the memory of digital devices. The case in point is logic-dynamical operation named venjunction and venjunctive function as well as sequention and sequentional function. Venjunction and sequention operate within the framework of sequential logic. In a form of the corresponding equations, they organically fit analytical expressions of Boolean algebra. Thus, a sort of symbiosis is formed using elements of asynchronous sequential logic on the one hand and combinational logic on the other hand. So, asynchronous

  13. Sequential Therapy of Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.A. Karimdzhanov

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the study — to examine the effectiveness of sequential therapy of injectable and oral forms cephalosporins of II generation, cefuroxime sodium and cefprozil, in children with acute community-acquired pneumonia. We examined 53 child patients aged 6 months — 14 years with acute community-acquired pneumonia. Patients were divided into 2 groups: 1st group — 26 patients who treated with cefuroxime sodium intramuscularly, and 2nd — 27 patients who treated with cefuroxime sodium in first 3 days and then from the 4th day — with cefprozil suspension orally. Both groups of patients were comparable by forms and course of pneumonia. In the clinic to all patients were conducted conventional clinical and laboratory investigations. Complex therapy was not different in both groups. Efficacy of treatment was assessed in dynamics. When comparing the effectiveness of two antibiotic regimens (cefuroxime sodium parenterally and sequential regimen with replacement by cefprozil orally there were no differences in the dynamics of clinical course, laboratory and radiological data. Finding of the conducted investigations before treatment showed that majority of patients had clinical and radiological evidence of pneumonia: fever, cough, shortness of breath, tachycardia, physical and radiological changes in the lungs. Evaluation of treatment efficacy showed that by the end of treatment in both groups of patients there was a positive clinical and radiological dynamics of the disease, the body temperature returned to normal, symptoms of intoxication, physical changes in the lungs disappeared, focal and infiltrative changes disappeared completely. Thus, sequential therapy with cephalosporins of II generation, cefuroxime and cefprozil, in the treatment of acute community-acquired pneumonia in children is a quite effective and safe method with good tolerability and no side effects.

  14. Application of Bayesian Networks to hindcast barrier island morphodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Kathleen E.; Adams, Peter N.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Lentz, Erika E.; Brenner, Owen T.

    2015-01-01

    Prediction of coastal vulnerability is of increasing concern to policy makers, coastal managers and other stakeholders. Coastal regions and barrier islands along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are subject to frequent, large storms, whose waves and storm surge can dramatically alter beach morphology, threaten infrastructure, and impact local economies. Given that precise forecasts of regional hazards are challenging, because of the complex interactions between processes on many scales, a range of probable geomorphic change in response to storm conditions is often more helpful than deterministic predictions. Site-specific probabilistic models of coastal change are reliable because they are formulated with observations so that local factors, of potentially high influence, are inherent in the model. The development and use of predictive tools such as Bayesian Networks in response to future storms has the potential to better inform management decisions and hazard preparation in coastal communities. We present several Bayesian Networks designed to hindcast distinct morphologic changes attributable to the Nor'Ida storm of 2009, at Fire Island, New York. Model predictions are informed with historical system behavior, initial morphologic conditions, and a parameterized treatment of wave climate.

  15. Sequential Estimation of Mixtures in Diffusion Networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dedecius, Kamil; Reichl, Jan; Djurić, P. M.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 22, č. 2 (2015), s. 197-201 ISSN 1070-9908 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GP14-06678P Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : distributed estimation * mixture models * bayesian inference Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.661, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/AS/dedecius-0431479.pdf

  16. Empirical Bayesian inference and model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poern, K.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a hierarchical or multistage empirical Bayesian approach for the estimation of uncertainty concerning the intensity of a homogeneous Poisson process. A class of contaminated gamma distributions is considered to describe the uncertainty concerning the intensity. These distributions in turn are defined through a set of secondary parameters, the knowledge of which is also described and updated via Bayes formula. This two-stage Bayesian approach is an example where the modeling uncertainty is treated in a comprehensive way. Each contaminated gamma distributions, represented by a point in the 3D space of secondary parameters, can be considered as a specific model of the uncertainty about the Poisson intensity. Then, by the empirical Bayesian method each individual model is assigned a posterior probability

  17. Bayesian Inference Methods for Sparse Channel Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand

    2013-01-01

    This thesis deals with sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) with application to radio channel estimation. As opposed to the classical approach for sparse signal representation, we focus on the problem of inferring complex signals. Our investigations within SBL constitute the basis for the development...... of Bayesian inference algorithms for sparse channel estimation. Sparse inference methods aim at finding the sparse representation of a signal given in some overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors. Within this context, one of our main contributions to the field of SBL is a hierarchical representation...... analysis of the complex prior representation, where we show that the ability to induce sparse estimates of a given prior heavily depends on the inference method used and, interestingly, whether real or complex variables are inferred. We also show that the Bayesian estimators derived from the proposed...

  18. Bayesian Methods for Radiation Detection and Dosimetry

    CERN Document Server

    Groer, Peter G

    2002-01-01

    We performed work in three areas: radiation detection, external and internal radiation dosimetry. In radiation detection we developed Bayesian techniques to estimate the net activity of high and low activity radioactive samples. These techniques have the advantage that the remaining uncertainty about the net activity is described by probability densities. Graphs of the densities show the uncertainty in pictorial form. Figure 1 below demonstrates this point. We applied stochastic processes for a method to obtain Bayesian estimates of 222Rn-daughter products from observed counting rates. In external radiation dosimetry we studied and developed Bayesian methods to estimate radiation doses to an individual with radiation induced chromosome aberrations. We analyzed chromosome aberrations after exposure to gammas and neutrons and developed a method for dose-estimation after criticality accidents. The research in internal radiation dosimetry focused on parameter estimation for compartmental models from observed comp...

  19. Bayesian estimation of dose rate effectiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnish, J.J.; Groer, P.G.

    2000-01-01

    A Bayesian statistical method was used to quantify the effectiveness of high dose rate 137 Cs gamma radiation at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice. The Bayesian approach considers both the temporal and dose dependence of radiation carcinogenesis and total mortality. This paper provides the first direct estimation of dose rate effectiveness using Bayesian statistics. This statistical approach provides a quantitative description of the uncertainty of the factor characterising the dose rate in terms of a probability density function. The results show that a fixed dose from 137 Cs gamma radiation delivered at a high dose rate is more effective at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice than the same dose delivered at a low dose rate. (author)

  20. Eyewitness confidence in simultaneous and sequential lineups: a criterion shift account for sequential mistaken identification overconfidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobolyi, David G; Dodson, Chad S

    2013-12-01

    Confidence judgments for eyewitness identifications play an integral role in determining guilt during legal proceedings. Past research has shown that confidence in positive identifications is strongly associated with accuracy. Using a standard lineup recognition paradigm, we investigated accuracy using signal detection and ROC analyses, along with the tendency to choose a face with both simultaneous and sequential lineups. We replicated past findings of reduced rates of choosing with sequential as compared to simultaneous lineups, but notably found an accuracy advantage in favor of simultaneous lineups. Moreover, our analysis of the confidence-accuracy relationship revealed two key findings. First, we observed a sequential mistaken identification overconfidence effect: despite an overall reduction in false alarms, confidence for false alarms that did occur was higher with sequential lineups than with simultaneous lineups, with no differences in confidence for correct identifications. This sequential mistaken identification overconfidence effect is an expected byproduct of the use of a more conservative identification criterion with sequential than with simultaneous lineups. Second, we found a steady drop in confidence for mistaken identifications (i.e., foil identifications and false alarms) from the first to the last face in sequential lineups, whereas confidence in and accuracy of correct identifications remained relatively stable. Overall, we observed that sequential lineups are both less accurate and produce higher confidence false identifications than do simultaneous lineups. Given the increasing prominence of sequential lineups in our legal system, our data argue for increased scrutiny and possibly a wholesale reevaluation of this lineup format. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  1. A nonparametric Bayesian approach for genetic evaluation in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    South African Journal of Animal Science ... the Bayesian and Classical models, a Bayesian procedure is provided which allows these random ... data from the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud and data from a simulation experiment are utilized. >

  2. Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lawson, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    .... Exploring these new developments, Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology, Second Edition provides an up-to-date, cohesive account of the full range of Bayesian disease mapping methods and applications...

  3. Sparse reconstruction using distribution agnostic bayesian matching pursuit

    KAUST Repository

    Masood, Mudassir; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.

    2013-01-01

    A fast matching pursuit method using a Bayesian approach is introduced for sparse signal recovery. This method performs Bayesian estimates of sparse signals even when the signal prior is non-Gaussian or unknown. It is agnostic on signal statistics

  4. The Bayesian Approach to Association

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, N. S.

    2017-12-01

    The Bayesian approach to Association focuses mainly on quantifying the physics of the domain. In the case of seismic association for instance let X be the set of all significant events (above some threshold) and their attributes, such as location, time, and magnitude, Y1 be the set of detections that are caused by significant events and their attributes such as seismic phase, arrival time, amplitude etc., Y2 be the set of detections that are not caused by significant events, and finally Y be the set of observed detections We would now define the joint distribution P(X, Y1, Y2, Y) = P(X) P(Y1 | X) P(Y2) I(Y = Y1 + Y2) ; where the last term simply states that Y1 and Y2 are a partitioning of Y. Given the above joint distribution the inference problem is simply to find the X, Y1, and Y2 that maximizes posterior probability P(X, Y1, Y2| Y) which reduces to maximizing P(X) P(Y1 | X) P(Y2) I(Y = Y1 + Y2). In this expression P(X) captures our prior belief about event locations. P(Y1 | X) captures notions of travel time, residual error distributions as well as detection and mis-detection probabilities. While P(Y2) captures the false detection rate of our seismic network. The elegance of this approach is that all of the assumptions are stated clearly in the model for P(X), P(Y1|X) and P(Y2). The implementation of the inference is merely a by-product of this model. In contrast some of the other methods such as GA hide a number of assumptions in the implementation details of the inference - such as the so called "driver cells." The other important aspect of this approach is that all seismic knowledge including knowledge from other domains such as infrasound and hydroacoustic can be included in the same model. So, we don't need to separately account for misdetections or merge seismic and infrasound events as a separate step. Finally, it should be noted that the objective of automatic association is to simplify the job of humans who are publishing seismic bulletins based on this

  5. Interpretability degrees of finitely axiomatized sequential theories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, Albert

    In this paper we show that the degrees of interpretability of finitely axiomatized extensions-in-the-same-language of a finitely axiomatized sequential theory-like Elementary Arithmetic EA, IΣ1, or the Gödel-Bernays theory of sets and classes GB-have suprema. This partially answers a question posed

  6. Interpretability Degrees of Finitely Axiomatized Sequential Theories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, Albert

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we show that the degrees of interpretability of finitely axiomatized extensions-in-the-same-language of a finitely axiomatized sequential theory —like Elementary Arithmetic EA, IΣ1, or the Gödel-Bernays theory of sets and classes GB— have suprema. This partially answers a question

  7. S.M.P. SEQUENTIAL MATHEMATICS PROGRAM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    CICIARELLI, V; LEONARD, JOSEPH

    A SEQUENTIAL MATHEMATICS PROGRAM BEGINNING WITH THE BASIC FUNDAMENTALS ON THE FOURTH GRADE LEVEL IS PRESENTED. INCLUDED ARE AN UNDERSTANDING OF OUR NUMBER SYSTEM, AND THE BASIC OPERATIONS OF WORKING WITH WHOLE NUMBERS--ADDITION, SUBTRACTION, MULTIPLICATION, AND DIVISION. COMMON FRACTIONS ARE TAUGHT IN THE FIFTH, SIXTH, AND SEVENTH GRADES. A…

  8. Sequential and Simultaneous Logit: A Nested Model.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ophem, J.C.M.; Schram, A.J.H.C.

    1997-01-01

    A nested model is presented which has both the sequential and the multinomial logit model as special cases. This model provides a simple test to investigate the validity of these specifications. Some theoretical properties of the model are discussed. In the analysis a distribution function is

  9. Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

    2017-02-01

    Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

  10. Sequential models for coarsening and missingness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gill, R.D.; Robins, J.M.

    1997-01-01

    In a companion paper we described what intuitively would seem to be the most general possible way to generate Coarsening at Random mechanisms a sequential procedure called randomized monotone coarsening Counterexamples showed that CAR mechanisms exist which cannot be represented in this way Here we

  11. Sequential motor skill: cognition, perception and action

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruitenberg, M.F.L.

    2013-01-01

    Discrete movement sequences are assumed to be the building blocks of more complex sequential actions that are present in our everyday behavior. The studies presented in this dissertation address the (neuro)cognitive underpinnings of such movement sequences, in particular in relationship to the role

  12. Sequential decoders for large MIMO systems

    KAUST Repository

    Ali, Konpal S.; Abediseid, Walid; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2014-01-01

    the Sequential Decoder using the Fano Algorithm for large MIMO systems. A parameter called the bias is varied to attain different performance-complexity trade-offs. Low values of the bias result in excellent performance but at the expense of high complexity

  13. A framework for sequential multiblock component methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smilde, A.K.; Westerhuis, J.A.; Jong, S.de

    2003-01-01

    Multiblock or multiset methods are starting to be used in chemistry and biology to study complex data sets. In chemometrics, sequential multiblock methods are popular; that is, methods that calculate one component at a time and use deflation for finding the next component. In this paper a framework

  14. Classical and sequential limit analysis revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leblond, Jean-Baptiste; Kondo, Djimédo; Morin, Léo; Remmal, Almahdi

    2018-04-01

    Classical limit analysis applies to ideal plastic materials, and within a linearized geometrical framework implying small displacements and strains. Sequential limit analysis was proposed as a heuristic extension to materials exhibiting strain hardening, and within a fully general geometrical framework involving large displacements and strains. The purpose of this paper is to study and clearly state the precise conditions permitting such an extension. This is done by comparing the evolution equations of the full elastic-plastic problem, the equations of classical limit analysis, and those of sequential limit analysis. The main conclusion is that, whereas classical limit analysis applies to materials exhibiting elasticity - in the absence of hardening and within a linearized geometrical framework -, sequential limit analysis, to be applicable, strictly prohibits the presence of elasticity - although it tolerates strain hardening and large displacements and strains. For a given mechanical situation, the relevance of sequential limit analysis therefore essentially depends upon the importance of the elastic-plastic coupling in the specific case considered.

  15. Sequential spatial processes for image analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.N.M. van Lieshout (Marie-Colette); V. Capasso

    2009-01-01

    htmlabstractWe give a brief introduction to sequential spatial processes. We discuss their definition, formulate a Markov property, and indicate why such processes are natural tools in tackling high level vision problems. We focus on the problem of tracking a variable number of moving objects

  16. Sequential spatial processes for image analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lieshout, van M.N.M.; Capasso, V.

    2009-01-01

    We give a brief introduction to sequential spatial processes. We discuss their definition, formulate a Markov property, and indicate why such processes are natural tools in tackling high level vision problems. We focus on the problem of tracking a variable number of moving objects through a video

  17. Sequential Analysis: Hypothesis Testing and Changepoint Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-11

    maintains the flexibility of deciding sooner than the fixed sample size procedure at the price of some lower power [13, 514]. The sequential probability... markets , detection of signals with unknown arrival time in seismology, navigation, radar and sonar signal processing, speech segmentation, and the... skimming cruise missile can yield a significant increase in the probability of raid annihilation. Furthermore, usually detection systems are

  18. STABILIZED SEQUENTIAL QUADRATIC PROGRAMMING: A SURVEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damián Fernández

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We review the motivation for, the current state-of-the-art in convergence results, and some open questions concerning the stabilized version of the sequential quadratic programming algorithm for constrained optimization. We also discuss the tools required for its local convergence analysis, globalization challenges, and extentions of the method to the more general variational problems.

  19. Truly costly sequential search and oligopolistic pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, Maarten C W; Moraga-González, José Luis; Wildenbeest, Matthijs R.

    We modify the paper of Stahl (1989) [Stahl, D.O., 1989. Oligopolistic pricing with sequential consumer search. American Economic Review 79, 700-12] by relaxing the assumption that consumers obtain the first price quotation for free. When all price quotations are costly to obtain, the unique

  20. Zips : mining compressing sequential patterns in streams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoang, T.L.; Calders, T.G.K.; Yang, J.; Mörchen, F.; Fradkin, D.; Chau, D.H.; Vreeken, J.; Leeuwen, van M.; Faloutsos, C.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a streaming algorithm, based on the minimal description length (MDL) principle, for extracting non-redundant sequential patterns. For static databases, the MDL-based approach that selects patterns based on their capacity to compress data rather than their frequency, was shown to be

  1. How to Read the Tractatus Sequentially

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Kraft

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available One of the unconventional features of Wittgenstein’s Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus is its use of an elaborated and detailed numbering system. Recently, Bazzocchi, Hacker und Kuusela have argued that the numbering system means that the Tractatus must be read and interpreted not as a sequentially ordered book, but as a text with a two-dimensional, tree-like structure. Apart from being able to explain how the Tractatus was composed, the tree reading allegedly solves exegetical issues both on the local (e. g. how 4.02 fits into the series of remarks surrounding it and the global level (e. g. relation between ontology and picture theory, solipsism and the eye analogy, resolute and irresolute readings. This paper defends the sequential reading against the tree reading. After presenting the challenges generated by the numbering system and the two accounts as attempts to solve them, it is argued that Wittgenstein’s own explanation of the numbering system, anaphoric references within the Tractatus and the exegetical issues mentioned above do not favour the tree reading, but a version of the sequential reading. This reading maintains that the remarks of the Tractatus form a sequential chain: The role of the numbers is to indicate how remarks on different levels are interconnected to form a concise, surveyable and unified whole.

  2. Adult Word Recognition and Visual Sequential Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, V. M.

    2012-01-01

    Two experiments were conducted investigating the role of visual sequential memory skill in the word recognition efficiency of undergraduate university students. Word recognition was assessed in a lexical decision task using regularly and strangely spelt words, and nonwords that were either standard orthographically legal strings or items made from…

  3. Terminating Sequential Delphi Survey Data Collection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalaian, Sema A.; Kasim, Rafa M.

    2012-01-01

    The Delphi survey technique is an iterative mail or electronic (e-mail or web-based) survey method used to obtain agreement or consensus among a group of experts in a specific field on a particular issue through a well-designed and systematic multiple sequential rounds of survey administrations. Each of the multiple rounds of the Delphi survey…

  4. Bayesian adaptive survey protocols for resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halstead, Brian J.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2011-01-01

    Transparency in resource management decisions requires a proper accounting of uncertainty at multiple stages of the decision-making process. As information becomes available, periodic review and updating of resource management protocols reduces uncertainty and improves management decisions. One of the most basic steps to mitigating anthropogenic effects on populations is determining if a population of a species occurs in an area that will be affected by human activity. Species are rarely detected with certainty, however, and falsely declaring a species absent can cause improper conservation decisions or even extirpation of populations. We propose a method to design survey protocols for imperfectly detected species that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty in the detection process, is capable of quantitatively incorporating expert opinion into the decision-making process, allows periodic updates to the protocol, and permits resource managers to weigh the severity of consequences if the species is falsely declared absent. We developed our method using the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas), a threatened species precinctive to the Central Valley of California, as a case study. Survey date was negatively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake, and water temperature was positively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake at a sampled location. Reporting sampling effort, timing and duration of surveys, and water temperatures would allow resource managers to evaluate the probability that the giant gartersnake occurs at sampled sites where it is not detected. This information would also allow periodic updates and quantitative evaluation of changes to the giant gartersnake survey protocol. Because it naturally allows multiple sources of information and is predicated upon the idea of updating information, Bayesian analysis is well-suited to solving the problem of developing efficient sampling protocols for species of

  5. Bayesian uncertainty analyses of probabilistic risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.

    1989-01-01

    Applications of Bayesian principles to the uncertainty analyses are discussed in the paper. A short review of the most important uncertainties and their causes is provided. An application of the principle of maximum entropy to the determination of Bayesian prior distributions is described. An approach based on so called probabilistic structures is presented in order to develop a method of quantitative evaluation of modelling uncertainties. The method is applied to a small example case. Ideas for application areas for the proposed method are discussed

  6. Justifying Objective Bayesianism on Predicate Languages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jürgen Landes

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective Bayesianism says that the strengths of one’s beliefs ought to be probabilities, calibrated to physical probabilities insofar as one has evidence of them, and otherwise sufficiently equivocal. These norms of belief are often explicated using the maximum entropy principle. In this paper we investigate the extent to which one can provide a unified justification of the objective Bayesian norms in the case in which the background language is a first-order predicate language, with a view to applying the resulting formalism to inductive logic. We show that the maximum entropy principle can be motivated largely in terms of minimising worst-case expected loss.

  7. Motion Learning Based on Bayesian Program Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Meng-Zhen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The concept of virtual human has been highly anticipated since the 1980s. By using computer technology, Human motion simulation could generate authentic visual effect, which could cheat human eyes visually. Bayesian Program Learning train one or few motion data, generate new motion data by decomposing and combining. And the generated motion will be more realistic and natural than the traditional one.In this paper, Motion learning based on Bayesian program learning allows us to quickly generate new motion data, reduce workload, improve work efficiency, reduce the cost of motion capture, and improve the reusability of data.

  8. Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2013-01-01

    an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...

  9. Length Scales in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Gh.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Two conceptual developments in the Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature approach to the numerical solution of one-dimensional Riemann integrals [Gh. Adam, S. Adam, Springer LNCS 7125, 1–16 (2012] are reported. First, it is shown that the numerical quadrature which avoids the overcomputing and minimizes the hidden floating point loss of precision asks for the consideration of three classes of integration domain lengths endowed with specific quadrature sums: microscopic (trapezoidal rule, mesoscopic (Simpson rule, and macroscopic (quadrature sums of high algebraic degrees of precision. Second, sensitive diagnostic tools for the Bayesian inference on macroscopic ranges, coming from the use of Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature, are derived.

  10. Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, Nathan O.; Kelly, Dana L.

    1998-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are widely used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) because of their ability to provide useful estimates of model parameters when data are sparse and because the subjective probability framework, from which these methods are derived, is a natural framework to address the decision problems motivating PRA. This paper presents a tutorial on Bayesian parameter estimation especially relevant to PRA. It summarizes the philosophy behind these methods, approaches for constructing likelihood functions and prior distributions, some simple but realistic examples, and a variety of cautions and lessons regarding practical applications. References are also provided for more in-depth coverage of various topics

  11. Bayesian estimation and tracking a practical guide

    CERN Document Server

    Haug, Anton J

    2012-01-01

    A practical approach to estimating and tracking dynamic systems in real-worl applications Much of the literature on performing estimation for non-Gaussian systems is short on practical methodology, while Gaussian methods often lack a cohesive derivation. Bayesian Estimation and Tracking addresses the gap in the field on both accounts, providing readers with a comprehensive overview of methods for estimating both linear and nonlinear dynamic systems driven by Gaussian and non-Gaussian noices. Featuring a unified approach to Bayesian estimation and tracking, the book emphasizes the derivation

  12. Linguistics: evolution and language change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowern, Claire

    2015-01-05

    Linguists have long identified sound changes that occur in parallel. Now novel research shows how Bayesian modeling can capture complex concerted changes, revealing how evolution of sounds proceeds. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. A Fast Iterative Bayesian Inference Algorithm for Sparse Channel Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Fleury, Bernard Henri

    2013-01-01

    representation of the Bessel K probability density function; a highly efficient, fast iterative Bayesian inference method is then applied to the proposed model. The resulting estimator outperforms other state-of-the-art Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimators, either by yielding lower mean squared estimation error...

  14. A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis : Applications to Developmental Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A G

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

  15. A gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis : Applications to developmental research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Schoot, R.; Kaplan, D.; Denissen, J.J.A.; Asendorpf, J.B.; Neyer, F.J.; van Aken, M.A.G.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

  16. A default Bayesian hypothesis test for ANOVA designs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzels, R.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.; Wagenmakers, E.J.

    2012-01-01

    This article presents a Bayesian hypothesis test for analysis of variance (ANOVA) designs. The test is an application of standard Bayesian methods for variable selection in regression models. We illustrate the effect of various g-priors on the ANOVA hypothesis test. The Bayesian test for ANOVA

  17. Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom

    2013-02-01

    Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.

  18. A multi-agent systems approach to distributed bayesian information fusion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pavlin, G.; de Oude, P.; Maris, M.; Nunnink, J.; Hood, T.

    2010-01-01

    This paper introduces design principles for modular Bayesian fusion systems which can (i) cope with large quantities of heterogeneous information and (ii) can adapt to changing constellations of information sources on the fly. The presented approach exploits the locality of relations in causal

  19. Assessment of the sequential change of the masseter muscle by clenching: a quantitative analysis of T1, T2, and the signal intensity of the balanced steady-state free precession

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chikui, Toru; Tokumori, Kenji; Kazunori, Yoshiura; Shiraishi, Tomoko; Yuasa, Kenji; Inatomi, Daisuke; Hatakenaka, Masamitsu

    2010-01-01

    Background: The persistent muscle contractions during clenching are thought to cause some temporomandibular disorders. However, no report has so far evaluated the effect of clenching on the masticatory muscles by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Purpose: To investigate the effect of clenching with maximum voluntary contraction on the T1, T2, and signal intensity (SI) of the balanced fast field-echo (b FFE) of the masseter muscle. Material and Methods: A total of 11 volunteers participated. Multi-echo spin-echo echo-planar imaging was used for T2 measurements, and multi-shot Look-Locker sequence for T1 measurements. The Look-Locker sequence has been used for fast T1 mapping and this method has been applied for the imaging of various tissues. In addition, the b FFE was used due to the high temporal resolution. These three sequences lasted for 10 min and the participants were instructed to clench from 60 s to 80 s after the start of the data acquisition. T2, T1, and SI were normalized compared to pre-clenching values. Results: T2 decreased by clenching, which reflected a decrease of tissue perfusion due to the mechanical pressure. It increased rapidly after the clenching (peak value, 1.11±0.03; peak time, 16.8±7.6 s after the clenching), which corresponded to the reactive hyperemia and later, it gradually returned to the initial values (half period, 2.22±0.84 min). The change in the SI of the b FFE was triphasic and similar to that of T2 clenching. T1 increased after the cessation of the clenching and later gradually decreased during the recovery periods. However, the change of T1 was quite different from that of T2, with a lower peak value (1.04±0.02), a later peak time (36.0±28.0 s), and a longer half period (4.76±3.40 min) (P<0.0001, 0.0066, 0.02, respectively). Conclusion: The change in T2 was triphasic and we considered that it predominantly reflected the tissue perfusion.

  20. Dynamic model based on Bayesian method for energy security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Augutis, Juozas; Krikštolaitis, Ričardas; Pečiulytė, Sigita; Žutautaitė, Inga

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Methodology for dynamic indicator model construction and forecasting of indicators. • Application of dynamic indicator model for energy system development scenarios. • Expert judgement involvement using Bayesian method. - Abstract: The methodology for the dynamic indicator model construction and forecasting of indicators for the assessment of energy security level is presented in this article. An indicator is a special index, which provides numerical values to important factors for the investigated area. In real life, models of different processes take into account various factors that are time-dependent and dependent on each other. Thus, it is advisable to construct a dynamic model in order to describe these dependences. The energy security indicators are used as factors in the dynamic model. Usually, the values of indicators are obtained from statistical data. The developed dynamic model enables to forecast indicators’ variation taking into account changes in system configuration. The energy system development is usually based on a new object construction. Since the parameters of changes of the new system are not exactly known, information about their influences on indicators could not be involved in the model by deterministic methods. Thus, dynamic indicators’ model based on historical data is adjusted by probabilistic model with the influence of new factors on indicators using the Bayesian method

  1. Bayesian semiparametric regression models to characterize molecular evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Datta Saheli

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Statistical models and methods that associate changes in the physicochemical properties of amino acids with natural selection at the molecular level typically do not take into account the correlations between such properties. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical regression model with a generalization of the Dirichlet process prior on the distribution of the regression coefficients that describes the relationship between the changes in amino acid distances and natural selection in protein-coding DNA sequence alignments. Results The Bayesian semiparametric approach is illustrated with simulated data and the abalone lysin sperm data. Our method identifies groups of properties which, for this particular dataset, have a similar effect on evolution. The model also provides nonparametric site-specific estimates for the strength of conservation of these properties. Conclusions The model described here is distinguished by its ability to handle a large number of amino acid properties simultaneously, while taking into account that such data can be correlated. The multi-level clustering ability of the model allows for appealing interpretations of the results in terms of properties that are roughly equivalent from the standpoint of molecular evolution.

  2. Competing risk models in reliability systems, a Weibull distribution model with Bayesian analysis approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iskandar, Ismed; Gondokaryono, Yudi Satria

    2016-01-01

    In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range

  3. Advances in Applications of Hierarchical Bayesian Methods with Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, R. B.; Schwarz, G. E.; Boyer, E. W.

    2017-12-01

    Mechanistic and empirical watershed models are increasingly used to inform water resource decisions. Growing access to historical stream measurements and data from in-situ sensor technologies has increased the need for improved techniques for coupling models with hydrological measurements. Techniques that account for the intrinsic uncertainties of both models and measurements are especially needed. Hierarchical Bayesian methods provide an efficient modeling tool for quantifying model and prediction uncertainties, including those associated with measurements. Hierarchical methods can also be used to explore spatial and temporal variations in model parameters and uncertainties that are informed by hydrological measurements. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to develop a hybrid (statistical-mechanistic) SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) model of long-term mean annual streamflow across diverse environmental and climatic drainages in 18 U.S. hydrological regions. Our application illustrates the use of a new generation of Bayesian methods that offer more advanced computational efficiencies than the prior generation. Evaluations of the effects of hierarchical (regional) variations in model coefficients and uncertainties on model accuracy indicates improved prediction accuracies (median of 10-50%) but primarily in humid eastern regions, where model uncertainties are one-third of those in arid western regions. Generally moderate regional variability is observed for most hierarchical coefficients. Accounting for measurement and structural uncertainties, using hierarchical state-space techniques, revealed the effects of spatially-heterogeneous, latent hydrological processes in the "localized" drainages between calibration sites; this improved model precision, with only minor changes in regional coefficients. Our study can inform advances in the use of hierarchical methods with hydrological models to improve their integration with stream

  4. ABCtoolbox: a versatile toolkit for approximate Bayesian computations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neuenschwander Samuel

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The estimation of demographic parameters from genetic data often requires the computation of likelihoods. However, the likelihood function is computationally intractable for many realistic evolutionary models, and the use of Bayesian inference has therefore been limited to very simple models. The situation changed recently with the advent of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC algorithms allowing one to obtain parameter posterior distributions based on simulations not requiring likelihood computations. Results Here we present ABCtoolbox, a series of open source programs to perform Approximate Bayesian Computations (ABC. It implements various ABC algorithms including rejection sampling, MCMC without likelihood, a Particle-based sampler and ABC-GLM. ABCtoolbox is bundled with, but not limited to, a program that allows parameter inference in a population genetics context and the simultaneous use of different types of markers with different ploidy levels. In addition, ABCtoolbox can also interact with most simulation and summary statistics computation programs. The usability of the ABCtoolbox is demonstrated by inferring the evolutionary history of two evolutionary lineages of Microtus arvalis. Using nuclear microsatellites and mitochondrial sequence data in the same estimation procedure enabled us to infer sex-specific population sizes and migration rates and to find that males show smaller population sizes but much higher levels of migration than females. Conclusion ABCtoolbox allows a user to perform all the necessary steps of a full ABC analysis, from parameter sampling from prior distributions, data simulations, computation of summary statistics, estimation of posterior distributions, model choice, validation of the estimation procedure, and visualization of the results.

  5. Forecasting economy with Bayesian autoregressive distributed lag model: choosing optimal prior in economic downturn

    OpenAIRE

    Bušs, Ginters

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model is chosen. The results show that a sharp economic slowdown changes the optimal prior in two directions. First, it changes the structure of the optimal weight prior, setting smaller weight on the lagged dependent variable compared to varia...

  6. Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Coefficient Alpha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brannick, Michael T.; Zhang, Nanhua

    2013-01-01

    The current paper describes and illustrates a Bayesian approach to the meta-analysis of coefficient alpha. Alpha is the most commonly used estimate of the reliability or consistency (freedom from measurement error) for educational and psychological measures. The conventional approach to meta-analysis uses inverse variance weights to combine…

  7. Bayesian decision theory : A simple toy problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Erp, H.R.N.; Linger, R.O.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2016-01-01

    We give here a comparison of the expected outcome theory, the expected utility theory, and the Bayesian decision theory, by way of a simple numerical toy problem in which we look at the investment willingness to avert a high impact low probability event. It will be found that for this toy problem

  8. Optimal Detection under the Restricted Bayesian Criterion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shujun Liu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to find a suitable decision rule for a binary composite hypothesis-testing problem with a partial or coarse prior distribution. To alleviate the negative impact of the information uncertainty, a constraint is considered that the maximum conditional risk cannot be greater than a predefined value. Therefore, the objective of this paper becomes to find the optimal decision rule to minimize the Bayes risk under the constraint. By applying the Lagrange duality, the constrained optimization problem is transformed to an unconstrained optimization problem. In doing so, the restricted Bayesian decision rule is obtained as a classical Bayesian decision rule corresponding to a modified prior distribution. Based on this transformation, the optimal restricted Bayesian decision rule is analyzed and the corresponding algorithm is developed. Furthermore, the relation between the Bayes risk and the predefined value of the constraint is also discussed. The Bayes risk obtained via the restricted Bayesian decision rule is a strictly decreasing and convex function of the constraint on the maximum conditional risk. Finally, the numerical results including a detection example are presented and agree with the theoretical results.

  9. Heuristics as Bayesian inference under extreme priors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parpart, Paula; Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

    2018-05-01

    Simple heuristics are often regarded as tractable decision strategies because they ignore a great deal of information in the input data. One puzzle is why heuristics can outperform full-information models, such as linear regression, which make full use of the available information. These "less-is-more" effects, in which a relatively simpler model outperforms a more complex model, are prevalent throughout cognitive science, and are frequently argued to demonstrate an inherent advantage of simplifying computation or ignoring information. In contrast, we show at the computational level (where algorithmic restrictions are set aside) that it is never optimal to discard information. Through a formal Bayesian analysis, we prove that popular heuristics, such as tallying and take-the-best, are formally equivalent to Bayesian inference under the limit of infinitely strong priors. Varying the strength of the prior yields a continuum of Bayesian models with the heuristics at one end and ordinary regression at the other. Critically, intermediate models perform better across all our simulations, suggesting that down-weighting information with the appropriate prior is preferable to entirely ignoring it. Rather than because of their simplicity, our analyses suggest heuristics perform well because they implement strong priors that approximate the actual structure of the environment. We end by considering how new heuristics could be derived by infinitely strengthening the priors of other Bayesian models. These formal results have implications for work in psychology, machine learning and economics. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. A strongly quasiconvex PAC-Bayesian bound

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thiemann, Niklas; Igel, Christian; Wintenberger, Olivier

    2017-01-01

    We propose a new PAC-Bayesian bound and a way of constructing a hypothesis space, so that the bound is convex in the posterior distribution and also convex in a trade-off parameter between empirical performance of the posterior distribution and its complexity. The complexity is measured by the Ku...

  11. Multisnapshot Sparse Bayesian Learning for DOA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerstoft, Peter; Mecklenbrauker, Christoph F.; Xenaki, Angeliki

    2016-01-01

    The directions of arrival (DOA) of plane waves are estimated from multisnapshot sensor array data using sparse Bayesian learning (SBL). The prior for the source amplitudes is assumed independent zero-mean complex Gaussian distributed with hyperparameters, the unknown variances (i.e., the source...

  12. Approximate Bayesian evaluations of measurement uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Possolo, Antonio; Bodnar, Olha

    2018-04-01

    The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) includes formulas that produce an estimate of a scalar output quantity that is a function of several input quantities, and an approximate evaluation of the associated standard uncertainty. This contribution presents approximate, Bayesian counterparts of those formulas for the case where the output quantity is a parameter of the joint probability distribution of the input quantities, also taking into account any information about the value of the output quantity available prior to measurement expressed in the form of a probability distribution on the set of possible values for the measurand. The approximate Bayesian estimates and uncertainty evaluations that we present have a long history and illustrious pedigree, and provide sufficiently accurate approximations in many applications, yet are very easy to implement in practice. Differently from exact Bayesian estimates, which involve either (analytical or numerical) integrations, or Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, the approximations that we describe involve only numerical optimization and simple algebra. Therefore, they make Bayesian methods widely accessible to metrologists. We illustrate the application of the proposed techniques in several instances of measurement: isotopic ratio of silver in a commercial silver nitrate; odds of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients; height of a manometer column; mass fraction of chromium in a reference material; and potential-difference in a Zener voltage standard.

  13. Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

    KAUST Repository

    Matthies, Hermann G.

    2016-02-13

    In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.

  14. Error probabilities in default Bayesian hypothesis testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gu, Xin; Hoijtink, Herbert; Mulder, J,

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the classical type I and type II error probabilities of default Bayes factors for a Bayesian t test. Default Bayes factors quantify the relative evidence between the null hypothesis and the unrestricted alternative hypothesis without needing to specify prior distributions for

  15. Bayesian Averaging is Well-Temperated

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Kai

    2000-01-01

    Bayesian predictions are stochastic just like predictions of any other inference scheme that generalize from a finite sample. While a simple variational argument shows that Bayes averaging is generalization optimal given that the prior matches the teacher parameter distribution the situation is l...

  16. Robust bayesian inference of generalized Pareto distribution ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    En utilisant une etude exhaustive de Monte Carlo, nous prouvons que, moyennant une fonction perte generalisee adequate, on peut construire un estimateur Bayesien robuste du modele. Key words: Bayesian estimation; Extreme value; Generalized Fisher information; Gener- alized Pareto distribution; Monte Carlo; ...

  17. Evidence Estimation for Bayesian Partially Observed MRFs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.; Welling, M.

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian estimation in Markov random fields is very hard due to the intractability of the partition function. The introduction of hidden units makes the situation even worse due to the presence of potentially very many modes in the posterior distribution. For the first time we propose a

  18. Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

    KAUST Repository

    Matthies, Hermann G.; Zander, Elmar; Rosić, Bojana V.; Litvinenko, Alexander; Pajonk, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.

  19. A Bayesian perspective on some replacement strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazzuchi, Thomas A.; Soyer, Refik

    1996-01-01

    In this paper we present a Bayesian decision theoretic approach for determining optimal replacement strategies. This approach enables us to formally incorporate, express, and update our uncertainty when determining optimal replacement strategies. We develop relevant expressions for both the block replacement protocol with minimal repair and the age replacement protocol and illustrate the use of our approach with real data

  20. Comparison between Fisherian and Bayesian approach to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... of its simplicity and optimality properties is normally used for two group cases. However, Bayesian approach is found to be better than Fisher's approach because of its low misclassification error rate. Keywords: variance-covariance matrices, centroids, prior probability, mahalanobis distance, probability of misclassification ...

  1. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255 (United States); Coc, A. [Centre de Sciences Nucléaires et de Sciences de la Matière (CSNSM), CNRS/IN2P3, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris–Saclay, Bâtiment 104, F-91405 Orsay Campus (France); Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S., E-mail: iliadis@unc.edu [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1504 (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.

  2. Non-Linear Approximation of Bayesian Update

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    We develop a non-linear approximation of expensive Bayesian formula. This non-linear approximation is applied directly to Polynomial Chaos Coefficients. In this way, we avoid Monte Carlo sampling and sampling error. We can show that the famous Kalman Update formula is a particular case of this update.

  3. Comprehension and computation in Bayesian problem solving

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric D. Johnson

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Humans have long been characterized as poor probabilistic reasoners when presented with explicit numerical information. Bayesian word problems provide a well-known example of this, where even highly educated and cognitively skilled individuals fail to adhere to mathematical norms. It is widely agreed that natural frequencies can facilitate Bayesian reasoning relative to normalized formats (e.g. probabilities, percentages, both by clarifying logical set-subset relations and by simplifying numerical calculations. Nevertheless, between-study performance on transparent Bayesian problems varies widely, and generally remains rather unimpressive. We suggest there has been an over-focus on this representational facilitator (i.e. transparent problem structures at the expense of the specific logical and numerical processing requirements and the corresponding individual abilities and skills necessary for providing Bayesian-like output given specific verbal and numerical input. We further suggest that understanding this task-individual pair could benefit from considerations from the literature on mathematical cognition, which emphasizes text comprehension and problem solving, along with contributions of online executive working memory, metacognitive regulation, and relevant stored knowledge and skills. We conclude by offering avenues for future research aimed at identifying the stages in problem solving at which correct versus incorrect reasoners depart, and how individual difference might influence this time point.

  4. A Bayesian Approach to Interactive Retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tague, Jean M.

    1973-01-01

    A probabilistic model for interactive retrieval is presented. Bayesian statistical decision theory principles are applied: use of prior and sample information about the relationship of document descriptions to query relevance; maximization of expected value of a utility function, to the problem of optimally restructuring search strategies in an…

  5. Encoding dependence in Bayesian causal networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayesian networks (BNs) represent complex, uncertain spatio-temporal dynamics by propagation of conditional probabilities between identifiable states with a testable causal interaction model. Typically, they assume random variables are discrete in time and space with a static network structure that ...

  6. Forecasting nuclear power supply with Bayesian autoregression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.; Solow, J.L.

    1994-01-01

    We explore the possibility of forecasting the quarterly US generation of electricity from nuclear power using a Bayesian autoregression model. In terms of forecasting accuracy, this approach compares favorably with both the Department of Energy's current forecasting methodology and their more recent efforts using ARIMA models, and it is extremely easy and inexpensive to implement. (author)

  7. A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Factor Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Piatek, Rémi; Papaspiliopoulos, Omiros

    2018-01-01

    This paper introduces a new approach for the inference of non-Gaussian factor models based on Bayesian nonparametric methods. It relaxes the usual normality assumption on the latent factors, widely used in practice, which is too restrictive in many settings. Our approach, on the contrary, does no...

  8. Hierarchical Bayesian Models of Subtask Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anglim, Jeromy; Wynton, Sarah K. A.

    2015-01-01

    The current study used Bayesian hierarchical methods to challenge and extend previous work on subtask learning consistency. A general model of individual-level subtask learning was proposed focusing on power and exponential functions with constraints to test for inconsistency. To study subtask learning, we developed a novel computer-based booking…

  9. Non-Linear Approximation of Bayesian Update

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2016-06-23

    We develop a non-linear approximation of expensive Bayesian formula. This non-linear approximation is applied directly to Polynomial Chaos Coefficients. In this way, we avoid Monte Carlo sampling and sampling error. We can show that the famous Kalman Update formula is a particular case of this update.

  10. Bayesian approach and application to operation safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Procaccia, H.; Suhner, M.Ch.

    2003-01-01

    The management of industrial risks requires the development of statistical and probabilistic analyses which use all the available convenient information in order to compensate the insufficient experience feedback in a domain where accidents and incidents remain too scarce to perform a classical statistical frequency analysis. The Bayesian decision approach is well adapted to this problem because it integrates both the expertise and the experience feedback. The domain of knowledge is widen, the forecasting study becomes possible and the decisions-remedial actions are strengthen thanks to risk-cost-benefit optimization analyzes. This book presents the bases of the Bayesian approach and its concrete applications in various industrial domains. After a mathematical presentation of the industrial operation safety concepts and of the Bayesian approach principles, this book treats of some of the problems that can be solved thanks to this approach: softwares reliability, controls linked with the equipments warranty, dynamical updating of databases, expertise modeling and weighting, Bayesian optimization in the domains of maintenance, quality control, tests and design of new equipments. A synthesis of the mathematical formulae used in this approach is given in conclusion. (J.S.)

  11. Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

    2011-08-01

    The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls

  12. Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

    2016-04-01

    This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

  13. Impact of Diagrams on Recalling Sequential Elements in Expository Texts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guri-Rozenblit, Sarah

    1988-01-01

    Examines the instructional effectiveness of abstract diagrams on recall of sequential relations in social science textbooks. Concludes that diagrams assist significantly the recall of sequential relations in a text and decrease significantly the rate of order mistakes. (RS)

  14. Sequential MR images of uterus after Gd-DTPA injection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okada, Susumu; Kato, Tomoyasu; Yamada, Keiko; Sawano, Seishi; Yamashita, Takashi; Hirai, Yasuo; Hasumi, Katsuhiko

    1993-01-01

    To investigate the sequential changes in signal intensity (SI) of normal and abnormal uteri, T1-weighted images were taken repeatedly after the injection of Gd-diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA). Six volunteers and 19 patients with known uterine body malignancy (18 carcinomas, one carcinosarcoma) were examined. The results in volunteers were as follows. In the secretory phase, SI of the endometrium was stronger in the late images than in the early ones, whereas in the proliferative phase, SI was stronger in the early images. SI of the myometrium decreased rapidly and there were no differences in SI between menstrual phases. In 17 of 18 endometrial carcinomas, the tumors showed hypointensity relative to the myometrium, and the contrast between the tumor and the myometrium was better in the early images. In the remaining two cases, the tumor showed hyperintensity and the contrast was better in the late images. After the injection of Gd-DTPA, the endometrium appeared differently according to the menstrual cycle in normal volunteers, and the appearance of uterine structures and endometrial malignant tumors changed sequentially. These findings must be kept in mind when evaluating uterine diseases by Gd-DTPA enhanced MRI. (author)

  15. Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Sánchez-Taltavull

    Full Text Available Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities' measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low-especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities' signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset.

  16. A one-sided sequential test

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Racz, A.; Lux, I. [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest (Hungary). Atomic Energy Research Inst.

    1996-04-16

    The applicability of the classical sequential probability ratio testing (SPRT) for early failure detection problems is limited by the fact that there is an extra time delay between the occurrence of the failure and its first recognition. Chien and Adams developed a method to minimize this time for the case when the problem can be formulated as testing the mean value of a Gaussian signal. In our paper we propose a procedure that can be applied for both mean and variance testing and that minimizes the time delay. The method is based on a special parametrization of the classical SPRT. The one-sided sequential tests (OSST) can reproduce the results of the Chien-Adams test when applied for mean values. (author).

  17. Documentscape: Intertextuality, Sequentiality & Autonomy at Work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Lars Rune; Bjørn, Pernille

    2014-01-01

    On the basis of an ethnographic field study, this article introduces the concept of documentscape to the analysis of document-centric work practices. The concept of documentscape refers to the entire ensemble of documents in their mutual intertextual interlocking. Providing empirical data from...... a global software development case, we show how hierarchical structures and sequentiality across the interlocked documents are critical to how actors make sense of the work of others and what to do next in a geographically distributed setting. Furthermore, we found that while each document is created...... as part of a quasi-sequential order, this characteristic does not make the document, as a single entity, into a stable object. Instead, we found that the documents were malleable and dynamic while suspended in intertextual structures. Our concept of documentscape points to how the hierarchical structure...

  18. The effects of sequential attention shifts within visual working memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi eLi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have shown conflicting data as to whether it is possible to sequentially shift spatial attention among visual working memory (VWM representations. The present study investigated this issue by asynchronously presenting attentional cues during the retention interval of a change detection task. In particular, we focused on two types of sequential attention shifts: 1 orienting attention to one location, and then withdrawing attention from it, and 2 switching the focus of attention from one location to another. In Experiment 1, a withdrawal cue was presented after a spatial retro-cue to measure the effect of withdrawing attention. The withdrawal cue significantly reduced the cost of invalid spatial cues, but surprisingly, did not attenuate the benefit of valid spatial cues. This indicates that the withdrawal cue only triggered the activation of facilitative components but not inhibitory components of attention. In Experiment 2, two spatial retro-cues were presented successively to examine the effect of switching the focus of attention. We observed benefits of both the first and second cues in sequential cueing, indicating that participants were able to reorient attention from one location to another within VWM, and the reallocation of attention did not attenuate memory at the first cued location. In Experiment 3, we found that reducing the validity of the preceding spatial cue did lead to a significant reduction in its benefit. However, performance at the first-cued location was still better than the neutral baseline or performance at the uncued locations, indicating that the first cue benefit might have been preserved both partially under automatic control and partially under voluntary control. Our findings revealed new properties of dynamic attentional control in VWM maintenance.

  19. A minimax procedure in the context of sequential mastery testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Hendrik J.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to derive optimal rules for sequential mastery tests. In a sequential mastery test, the decision is to classify a subject as a master or a nonmaster, or to continue sampling and administering another random test item. The framework of minimax sequential decision theory

  20. Applying the minimax principle to sequential mastery testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Hendrik J.

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to derive optimal rules for sequential mastery tests. In a sequential mastery test, the decision is to classify a subject as a master, a nonmaster, or to continue sampling and administering another random item. The framework of minimax sequential decision theory (minimum