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Sample records for bayesian receiver operating

  1. Bayesian receiver operating characteristic estimation of multiple tests for diagnosis of bovine tuberculosis in Chadian cattle.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borna Müller

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Bovine tuberculosis (BTB today primarily affects developing countries. In Africa, the disease is present essentially on the whole continent; however, little accurate information on its distribution and prevalence is available. Also, attempts to evaluate diagnostic tests for BTB in naturally infected cattle are scarce and mostly complicated by the absence of knowledge of the true disease status of the tested animals. However, diagnostic test evaluation in a given setting is a prerequisite for the implementation of local surveillance schemes and control measures. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We subjected a slaughterhouse population of 954 Chadian cattle to single intra-dermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT testing and two recently developed fluorescence polarization assays (FPA. Using a Bayesian modeling approach we computed the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve of each diagnostic test, the true disease prevalence in the sampled population and the disease status of all sampled animals in the absence of knowledge of the true disease status of the sampled animals. In our Chadian setting, SICCT performed better if the cut-off for positive test interpretation was lowered from >4 mm (OIE standard cut-off to >2 mm. Using this cut-off, SICCT showed a sensitivity and specificity of 66% and 89%, respectively. Both FPA tests showed sensitivities below 50% but specificities above 90%. The true disease prevalence was estimated at 8%. Altogether, 11% of the sampled animals showed gross visible tuberculous lesions. However, modeling of the BTB disease status of the sampled animals indicated that 72% of the suspected tuberculosis lesions detected during standard meat inspections were due to other pathogens than Mycobacterium bovis. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results have important implications for BTB diagnosis in a high incidence sub-Saharan African setting and demonstrate the practicability of our Bayesian approach for

  2. Predictors of Outcome in Traumatic Brain Injury: New Insight Using Receiver Operating Curve Indices and Bayesian Network Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zsolt Zador

    Full Text Available Traumatic brain injury remains a global health problem. Understanding the relative importance of outcome predictors helps optimize our treatment strategies by informing assessment protocols, clinical decisions and trial designs. In this study we establish importance ranking for outcome predictors based on receiver operating indices to identify key predictors of outcome and create simple predictive models. We then explore the associations between key outcome predictors using Bayesian networks to gain further insight into predictor importance.We analyzed the corticosteroid randomization after significant head injury (CRASH trial database of 10008 patients and included patients for whom demographics, injury characteristics, computer tomography (CT findings and Glasgow Outcome Scale (GCS were recorded (total of 13 predictors, which would be available to clinicians within a few hours following the injury in 6945 patients. Predictions of clinical outcome (death or severe disability at 6 months were performed using logistic regression models with 5-fold cross validation. Predictive performance was measured using standardized partial area (pAUC under the receiver operating curve (ROC and we used Delong test for comparisons. Variable importance ranking was based on pAUC targeted at specificity (pAUCSP and sensitivity (pAUCSE intervals of 90-100%. Probabilistic associations were depicted using Bayesian networks.Complete AUC analysis showed very good predictive power (AUC = 0.8237, 95% CI: 0.8138-0.8336 for the complete model. Specificity focused importance ranking highlighted age, pupillary, motor responses, obliteration of basal cisterns/3rd ventricle and midline shift. Interestingly when targeting model sensitivity, the highest-ranking variables were age, severe extracranial injury, verbal response, hematoma on CT and motor response. Simplified models, which included only these key predictors, had similar performance (pAUCSP = 0.6523, 95% CI: 0

  3. Bayesian operational risk models

    OpenAIRE

    Silvia Figini; Lijun Gao; Paolo Giudici

    2013-01-01

    Operational risk is hard to quantify, for the presence of heavy tailed loss distributions. Extreme value distributions, used in this context, are very sensitive to the data, and this is a problem in the presence of rare loss data. Self risk assessment questionnaires, if properly modelled, may provide the missing piece of information that is necessary to adequately estimate op- erational risks. In this paper we propose to embody self risk assessment data into suitable prior distributions, and ...

  4. Bayesian approach and application to operation safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Procaccia, H.; Suhner, M.Ch.

    2003-01-01

    The management of industrial risks requires the development of statistical and probabilistic analyses which use all the available convenient information in order to compensate the insufficient experience feedback in a domain where accidents and incidents remain too scarce to perform a classical statistical frequency analysis. The Bayesian decision approach is well adapted to this problem because it integrates both the expertise and the experience feedback. The domain of knowledge is widen, the forecasting study becomes possible and the decisions-remedial actions are strengthen thanks to risk-cost-benefit optimization analyzes. This book presents the bases of the Bayesian approach and its concrete applications in various industrial domains. After a mathematical presentation of the industrial operation safety concepts and of the Bayesian approach principles, this book treats of some of the problems that can be solved thanks to this approach: softwares reliability, controls linked with the equipments warranty, dynamical updating of databases, expertise modeling and weighting, Bayesian optimization in the domains of maintenance, quality control, tests and design of new equipments. A synthesis of the mathematical formulae used in this approach is given in conclusion. (J.S.)

  5. A Bayesian Networks approach to Operational Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquaro, V.; Bardoscia, M.; Bellotti, R.; Consiglio, A.; De Carlo, F.; Ferri, G.

    2010-04-01

    A system for Operational Risk management based on the computational paradigm of Bayesian Networks is presented. The algorithm allows the construction of a Bayesian Network targeted for each bank and takes into account in a simple and realistic way the correlations among different processes of the bank. The internal losses are averaged over a variable time horizon, so that the correlations at different times are removed, while the correlations at the same time are kept: the averaged losses are thus suitable to perform the learning of the network topology and parameters; since the main aim is to understand the role of the correlations among the losses, the assessments of domain experts are not used. The algorithm has been validated on synthetic time series. It should be stressed that the proposed algorithm has been thought for the practical implementation in a mid or small sized bank, since it has a small impact on the organizational structure of a bank and requires an investment in human resources which is limited to the computational area.

  6. Bayesian network modeling of operator's state recognition process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatakeyama, Naoki; Furuta, Kazuo

    2000-01-01

    Nowadays we are facing a difficult problem of establishing a good relation between humans and machines. To solve this problem, we suppose that machine system need to have a model of human behavior. In this study we model the state cognition process of a PWR plant operator as an example. We use a Bayesian network as an inference engine. We incorporate the knowledge hierarchy in the Bayesian network and confirm its validity using the example of PWR plant operator. (author)

  7. Modeling operational risks of the nuclear industry with Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieland, Patricia; Lustosa, Leonardo J.

    2009-01-01

    Basically, planning a new industrial plant requires information on the industrial management, regulations, site selection, definition of initial and planned capacity, and on the estimation of the potential demand. However, this is far from enough to assure the success of an industrial enterprise. Unexpected and extremely damaging events may occur that deviates from the original plan. The so-called operational risks are not only in the system, equipment, process or human (technical or managerial) failures. They are also in intentional events such as frauds and sabotage, or extreme events like terrorist attacks or radiological accidents and even on public reaction to perceived environmental or future generation impacts. For the nuclear industry, it is a challenge to identify and to assess the operational risks and their various sources. Early identification of operational risks can help in preparing contingency plans, to delay the decision to invest or to approve a project that can, at an extreme, affect the public perception of the nuclear energy. A major problem in modeling operational risk losses is the lack of internal data that are essential, for example, to apply the loss distribution approach. As an alternative, methods that consider qualitative and subjective information can be applied, for example, fuzzy logic, neural networks, system dynamic or Bayesian networks. An advantage of applying Bayesian networks to model operational risk is the possibility to include expert opinions and variables of interest, to structure the model via causal dependencies among these variables, and to specify subjective prior and conditional probabilities distributions at each step or network node. This paper suggests a classification of operational risks in industry and discusses the benefits and obstacles of the Bayesian networks approach to model those risks. (author)

  8. Operational modal analysis modeling, Bayesian inference, uncertainty laws

    CERN Document Server

    Au, Siu-Kui

    2017-01-01

    This book presents operational modal analysis (OMA), employing a coherent and comprehensive Bayesian framework for modal identification and covering stochastic modeling, theoretical formulations, computational algorithms, and practical applications. Mathematical similarities and philosophical differences between Bayesian and classical statistical approaches to system identification are discussed, allowing their mathematical tools to be shared and their results correctly interpreted. Many chapters can be used as lecture notes for the general topic they cover beyond the OMA context. After an introductory chapter (1), Chapters 2–7 present the general theory of stochastic modeling and analysis of ambient vibrations. Readers are first introduced to the spectral analysis of deterministic time series (2) and structural dynamics (3), which do not require the use of probability concepts. The concepts and techniques in these chapters are subsequently extended to a probabilistic context in Chapter 4 (on stochastic pro...

  9. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis without truth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henkelman, R.M.; Kay, I.; Bronskill, M.J.

    1990-01-01

    Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis, the preferred method of evaluating diagnostic imaging tests, requires an independent assessment of the true state of disease, which can be difficult to obtain and is often of questionable accuracy. A new method of analysis is described which does not require independent truth data and which can be used when several accurate tests are being compared. This method uses correlative information to estimate the underlying model of multivariate normal distributions of disease-positive and disease-negative patients. The method is shown to give results equivalent to conventional ROC analysis in a comparison of computed tomography, radionuclide scintigraphy, and magnetic resonance imaging for liver metastasis. When independent truth is available, the method can be extended to incorporate truth data or to evaluate the consistency of the truth data with the imaging data

  10. Bayesian Recovery of Clipped OFDM Signals: A Receiver-based Approach

    KAUST Repository

    Al-Rabah, Abdullatif R.

    2013-05-01

    Recently, orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) has been adopted for high-speed wireless communications due to its robustness against multipath fading. However, one of the main fundamental drawbacks of OFDM systems is the high peak-to-average-power ratio (PAPR). Several techniques have been proposed for PAPR reduction. Most of these techniques require transmitter-based (pre-compensated) processing. On the other hand, receiver-based alternatives would save the power and reduce the transmitter complexity. By keeping this in mind, a possible approach is to limit the amplitude of the OFDM signal to a predetermined threshold and equivalently a sparse clipping signal is added. Then, estimating this clipping signal at the receiver to recover the original signal. In this work, we propose a Bayesian receiver-based low-complexity clipping signal recovery method for PAPR reduction. The method is able to i) effectively reduce the PAPR via simple clipping scheme at the transmitter side, ii) use Bayesian recovery algorithm to reconstruct the clipping signal at the receiver side by measuring part of subcarriers, iii) perform well in the absence of statistical information about the signal (e.g. clipping level) and the noise (e.g. noise variance), and at the same time iv is energy efficient due to its low complexity. Specifically, the proposed recovery technique is implemented in data-aided based. The data-aided method collects clipping information by measuring reliable 
data subcarriers, thus makes full use of spectrum for data transmission without the need for tone reservation. The study is extended further to discuss how to improve the recovery of the clipping signal utilizing some features of practical OFDM systems i.e., the oversampling and the presence of multiple receivers. Simulation results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed technique over other recovery algorithms. The overall objective is to show that the receiver-based Bayesian technique is highly

  11. Receiver-based recovery of clipped ofdm signals for papr reduction: A bayesian approach

    KAUST Repository

    Ali, Anum

    2014-01-01

    Clipping is one of the simplest peak-to-average power ratio reduction schemes for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM). Deliberately clipping the transmission signal degrades system performance, and clipping mitigation is required at the receiver for information restoration. In this paper, we acknowledge the sparse nature of the clipping signal and propose a low-complexity Bayesian clipping estimation scheme. The proposed scheme utilizes a priori information about the sparsity rate and noise variance for enhanced recovery. At the same time, the proposed scheme is robust against inaccurate estimates of the clipping signal statistics. The undistorted phase property of the clipped signal, as well as the clipping likelihood, is utilized for enhanced reconstruction. Furthermore, motivated by the nature of modern OFDM-based communication systems, we extend our clipping reconstruction approach to multiple antenna receivers and multi-user OFDM.We also address the problem of channel estimation from pilots contaminated by the clipping distortion. Numerical findings are presented that depict favorable results for the proposed scheme compared to the established sparse reconstruction schemes.

  12. Bayesian analysis of risk associated with workplace accidents in earthmoving operations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. F. García

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the characteristics of earthmoving operations involving a workplace accident. Bayesian networks were used to identify the factors that best predicted potential risk situations. Inference studies were then conducted to analyse the interplay between different risk factors. We demonstrate the potential of Bayesian networks to describe workplace contexts and predict risk situations from a safety and production planning perspective.

  13. Application of Bayesian networks in quantitative risk assessment of subsea blowout preventer operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Baoping; Liu, Yonghong; Liu, Zengkai; Tian, Xiaojie; Zhang, Yanzhen; Ji, Renjie

    2013-07-01

    This article proposes a methodology for the application of Bayesian networks in conducting quantitative risk assessment of operations in offshore oil and gas industry. The method involves translating a flow chart of operations into the Bayesian network directly. The proposed methodology consists of five steps. First, the flow chart is translated into a Bayesian network. Second, the influencing factors of the network nodes are classified. Third, the Bayesian network for each factor is established. Fourth, the entire Bayesian network model is established. Lastly, the Bayesian network model is analyzed. Subsequently, five categories of influencing factors, namely, human, hardware, software, mechanical, and hydraulic, are modeled and then added to the main Bayesian network. The methodology is demonstrated through the evaluation of a case study that shows the probability of failure on demand in closing subsea ram blowout preventer operations. The results show that mechanical and hydraulic factors have the most important effects on operation safety. Software and hardware factors have almost no influence, whereas human factors are in between. The results of the sensitivity analysis agree with the findings of the quantitative analysis. The three-axiom-based analysis partially validates the correctness and rationality of the proposed Bayesian network model. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. OFDM receiver for fast time-varying channels using block-sparse Bayesian learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barbu, Oana-Elena; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Rom, Christian

    2016-01-01

    We propose an iterative algorithm for OFDM receivers operating over fast time-varying channels. The design relies on the assumptions that the channel response can be characterized by a few non-negligible separable multipath components, and the temporal variation of each component gain can be well...

  15. Wideband fixed-tuned SIS receiver for 200-GHz operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blundell, Raymond; Tong, Cheuk-Yu E.; Papa, D. Cosmo; Leombruno, R. Louie; Zhang, Xiaolei; Paine, Scott; Stern, Jeffrey A.; Leduc, Henry G.; Bumble, Bruce

    1995-01-01

    We report on the design and development of a heterodyne receiver, designed to cover the frequency range 176-256 GHz. This receiver incorporates a niobium superconductor-insulator-superconductor (SIS) tunnel junction mixer, which, chiefly for reasons of reliability and ease of operation, is a fixed-tuned waveguide design. On-chip tuning is provided to resonate out the junction's geometric capacitance and produce a good match to the waveguide circuit. Laboratory measurements on the first test receiver indicate that the required input bandwidth (about 40%) is achieved with an average receiver noise temperature of below 50 K. Mixer conversion gain is observed at some frequencies, and the lowest measured receiver noise is less than 30 K. Furthermore, the SIS mixer used in this receiver is of simple construction, is easy to assemble and is therefore a good candidate for duplication.

  16. Dynamic Bayesian modeling for risk prediction in credit operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borchani, Hanen; Martinez, Ana Maria; Masegosa, Andres

    2015-01-01

    Our goal is to do risk prediction in credit operations, and as data is collected continuously and reported on a monthly basis, this gives rise to a streaming data classification problem. Our analysis reveals some practical problems that have not previously been thoroughly analyzed in the context...... of streaming data analysis: the class labels are not immediately available and the relevant predictive features and entities under study (in this case the set of customers) may vary over time. In order to address these problems, we propose to use a dynamic classifier with a wrapper feature subset selection...

  17. An analysis on operational risk in international banking: A Bayesian approach (2007–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Francisco Martínez-Sánchez

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to develop a Bayesian methodology to identify, quantify and measure operational risk in several business lines of commercial banking. To do this, a Bayesian network (BN model is designed with prior and subsequent distributions to estimate the frequency and severity. Regarding the subsequent distributions, an inference procedure for the maximum expected loss, for a period of 20 days, is carried out by using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The business lines analyzed are marketing and sales, retail banking and private banking, which all together accounted for 88.5% of the losses in 2011. Data was obtained for the period 2007–2011 from the Riskdata Operational Exchange Association (ORX, and external data was provided from qualified experts to complete the missing records or to improve its poor quality.

  18. Lithospheric architecture of NE China from joint Inversions of receiver functions and surface wave dispersion through Bayesian optimisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian, Nita; Kim, Seongryong; Tkalčić, Hrvoje; Sippl, Christian

    2017-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop an integrated inference on the lithospheric structure of NE China using three passive seismic networks comprised of 92 stations. The NE China plain consists of complex lithospheric domains characterised by the co-existence of complex geodynamic processes such as crustal thinning, active intraplate cenozoic volcanism and low velocity anomalies. To estimate lithospheric structures with greater detail, we chose to perform the joint inversion of independent data sets such as receiver functions and surface wave dispersion curves (group and phase velocity). We perform a joint inversion based on principles of Bayesian transdimensional optimisation techniques (Kim etal., 2016). Unlike in the previous studies of NE China, the complexity of the model is determined from the data in the first stage of the inversion, and the data uncertainty is computed based on Bayesian statistics in the second stage of the inversion. The computed crustal properties are retrieved from an ensemble of probable models. We obtain major structural inferences with well constrained absolute velocity estimates, which are vital for inferring properties of the lithosphere and bulk crustal Vp/Vs ratio. The Vp/Vs estimate obtained from joint inversions confirms the high Vp/Vs ratio ( 1.98) obtained using the H-Kappa method beneath some stations. Moreover, we could confirm the existence of a lower crustal velocity beneath several stations (eg: station SHS) within the NE China plain. Based on these findings we attempt to identify a plausible origin for structural complexity. We compile a high-resolution 3D image of the lithospheric architecture of the NE China plain.

  19. Planetary micro-rover operations on Mars using a Bayesian framework for inference and control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Mark A.; Li, Junquan; Quine, Brendan M.

    2016-03-01

    With the recent progress toward the application of commercially-available hardware to small-scale space missions, it is now becoming feasible for groups of small, efficient robots based on low-power embedded hardware to perform simple tasks on other planets in the place of large-scale, heavy and expensive robots. In this paper, we describe design and programming of the Beaver micro-rover developed for Northern Light, a Canadian initiative to send a small lander and rover to Mars to study the Martian surface and subsurface. For a small, hardware-limited rover to handle an uncertain and mostly unknown environment without constant management by human operators, we use a Bayesian network of discrete random variables as an abstraction of expert knowledge about the rover and its environment, and inference operations for control. A framework for efficient construction and inference into a Bayesian network using only the C language and fixed-point mathematics on embedded hardware has been developed for the Beaver to make intelligent decisions with minimal sensor data. We study the performance of the Beaver as it probabilistically maps a simple outdoor environment with sensor models that include uncertainty. Results indicate that the Beaver and other small and simple robotic platforms can make use of a Bayesian network to make intelligent decisions in uncertain planetary environments.

  20. Impact of signal scattering and parametric uncertainties on receiver operating characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, D. Keith; Breton, Daniel J.; Hart, Carl R.; Pettit, Chris L.

    2017-05-01

    The receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve), which is a plot of the probability of detection as a function of the probability of false alarm, plays a key role in the classical analysis of detector performance. However, meaningful characterization of the ROC curve is challenging when practically important complications such as variations in source emissions, environmental impacts on the signal propagation, uncertainties in the sensor response, and multiple sources of interference are considered. In this paper, a relatively simple but realistic model for scattered signals is employed to explore how parametric uncertainties impact the ROC curve. In particular, we show that parametric uncertainties in the mean signal and noise power substantially raise the tails of the distributions; since receiver operation with a very low probability of false alarm and a high probability of detection is normally desired, these tails lead to severely degraded performance. Because full a priori knowledge of such parametric uncertainties is rarely available in practice, analyses must typically be based on a finite sample of environmental states, which only partially characterize the range of parameter variations. We show how this effect can lead to misleading assessments of system performance. For the cases considered, approximately 64 or more statistically independent samples of the uncertain parameters are needed to accurately predict the probabilities of detection and false alarm. A connection is also described between selection of suitable distributions for the uncertain parameters, and Bayesian adaptive methods for inferring the parameters.

  1. Online probabilistic operational safety assessment of multi-mode engineering systems using Bayesian methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Yufei; Chen, Maoyin; Zhou, Donghua

    2013-01-01

    In the past decades, engineering systems become more and more complex, and generally work at different operational modes. Since incipient fault can lead to dangerous accidents, it is crucial to develop strategies for online operational safety assessment. However, the existing online assessment methods for multi-mode engineering systems commonly assume that samples are independent, which do not hold for practical cases. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework of online operational safety assessment of multi-mode engineering systems with sample dependency. To begin with, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to characterize multiple operating modes. Then, based on the definition of safety index (SI), the SI for one single mode is calculated. At last, the Bayesian method is presented to calculate the posterior probabilities belonging to each operating mode with sample dependency. The proposed assessment strategy is applied in two examples: one is the aircraft gas turbine, another is an industrial dryer. Both examples illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method

  2. Receiver Operating Characteristic Analysis for Detecting Explosives-related Threats

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oxley, Mark E; Venzin, Alexander M

    2012-11-14

    The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) are interested in developing a standardized testing procedure for determining the performance of candidate detection systems. This document outlines a potential method for judging detection system performance as well as determining if combining the information from a legacy system with a new system can signicantly improve performance. In this document, performance corresponds to the Neyman-Pearson criterion applied to the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves of the detection systems in question. A simulation was developed to investigate how the amount of data provided by the vendor in the form of the ROC curve eects the performance of the combined detection system. Furthermore, the simulation also takes into account the potential eects of correlation and how this information can also impact the performance of the combined system.

  3. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    the lifetime. Two different approaches are used; one uses a threshold value of the failure probability, and one uses a Limited Memory Influence Diagram. Both methods are tested for an application example using MonteCarlo sampling, and they are both found to be efficient and equally good.......For offshore wind farms, the costs due to operation and maintenance are large, and more optimal planning has the potential of reducing these costs. This paper presents how Bayesian networks can be used for risk-based inspection planning, where the inspection plans are updated each year through...

  4. Failure rate modeling using fault tree analysis and Bayesian network: DEMO pulsed operation turbine study case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dongiovanni, Danilo Nicola; Iesmantas, Tomas

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • RAMI (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability) assessment of secondary heat transfer loop for a DEMO nuclear fusion plant. • Definition of a fault tree for a nuclear steam turbine operated in pulsed mode. • Turbine failure rate models update by mean of a Bayesian network reflecting the fault tree analysis in the considered scenario. • Sensitivity analysis on system availability performance. - Abstract: Availability will play an important role in the Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) success from an economic and safety perspective. Availability performance is commonly assessed by Reliability Availability Maintainability Inspectability (RAMI) analysis, strongly relying on the accurate definition of system components failure modes (FM) and failure rates (FR). Little component experience is available in fusion application, therefore requiring the adaptation of literature FR to fusion plant operating conditions, which may differ in several aspects. As a possible solution to this problem, a new methodology to extrapolate/estimate components failure rate under different operating conditions is presented. The DEMO Balance of Plant nuclear steam turbine component operated in pulse mode is considered as study case. The methodology moves from the definition of a fault tree taking into account failure modes possibly enhanced by pulsed operation. The fault tree is then translated into a Bayesian network. A statistical model for the turbine system failure rate in terms of subcomponents’ FR is hence obtained, allowing for sensitivity analyses on the structured mixture of literature and unknown FR data for which plausible value intervals are investigated to assess their impact on the whole turbine system FR. Finally, the impact of resulting turbine system FR on plant availability is assessed exploiting a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) model for a typical secondary cooling system implementing a Rankine cycle. Mean inherent availability

  5. Failure rate modeling using fault tree analysis and Bayesian network: DEMO pulsed operation turbine study case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dongiovanni, Danilo Nicola, E-mail: danilo.dongiovanni@enea.it [ENEA, Nuclear Fusion and Safety Technologies Department, via Enrico Fermi 45, Frascati 00040 (Italy); Iesmantas, Tomas [LEI, Breslaujos str. 3 Kaunas (Lithuania)

    2016-11-01

    Highlights: • RAMI (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability) assessment of secondary heat transfer loop for a DEMO nuclear fusion plant. • Definition of a fault tree for a nuclear steam turbine operated in pulsed mode. • Turbine failure rate models update by mean of a Bayesian network reflecting the fault tree analysis in the considered scenario. • Sensitivity analysis on system availability performance. - Abstract: Availability will play an important role in the Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO) success from an economic and safety perspective. Availability performance is commonly assessed by Reliability Availability Maintainability Inspectability (RAMI) analysis, strongly relying on the accurate definition of system components failure modes (FM) and failure rates (FR). Little component experience is available in fusion application, therefore requiring the adaptation of literature FR to fusion plant operating conditions, which may differ in several aspects. As a possible solution to this problem, a new methodology to extrapolate/estimate components failure rate under different operating conditions is presented. The DEMO Balance of Plant nuclear steam turbine component operated in pulse mode is considered as study case. The methodology moves from the definition of a fault tree taking into account failure modes possibly enhanced by pulsed operation. The fault tree is then translated into a Bayesian network. A statistical model for the turbine system failure rate in terms of subcomponents’ FR is hence obtained, allowing for sensitivity analyses on the structured mixture of literature and unknown FR data for which plausible value intervals are investigated to assess their impact on the whole turbine system FR. Finally, the impact of resulting turbine system FR on plant availability is assessed exploiting a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) model for a typical secondary cooling system implementing a Rankine cycle. Mean inherent availability

  6. Receiver operating characteristic analysis improves diagnosis by radionuclide ventriculography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickinson, C.Z.; Forman, M.B.; Vaugh, W.K.; Sandler, M.P.; Kronenberg, M.W.

    1985-01-01

    Receiver operating characteristic analysis (ROC) evaluates continuous variables to define diagnostic criteria for the optimal sensitivity (SENS) and specificity (SPEC) of a test. The authors studied exercise-induced chest pain (CP), ST-changes on electrocardiography (ECG) and rest-exercise gated radionuclide ventriculography (RVG) using ROC to clarify the optimal criteria for detecting myocardial ischemia due to coronary artherosclerosis (CAD). The data of 95 consecutive patients studied with coronary angiography, rest-exercise RVG and ECG were reviewed. 77 patients had ''significant'' CAD (≥50% lesions). Exercise-induced CP, ECG abnormalities (ST-T shifts) and RVG abnormalities (change in ejection fraction, 2-view regional wall motion change and relative end-systolic volume) were evaluated to define optimal SENS/SPEC of each and for the combined data. ROC curves were constructed by multiple logistic regression (MLR). By MLR, RVG alone was superior to ECG and CP. The combination of all three produced the best ROC curve for the entire group and for clinical subsets based on the number of diseased vessels and the presence or absence of prior myocardial infarction. When CP, ECG and RVG were combined, the optimal SENS/SPEC for detection of single vessel disease was 88/86. The SENS/SPEC for 3 vessel disease was 93/95. Thus, the application of RVG for the diagnosis of myocardial ischemia is improved with the inclusion of ECG and CP data by the use of a multiple logistic regression model. ROC analysis allows clinical application of multiple data for diagnosing CAD at desired SENS/SPEC rather than by arbitrary single-standard criteria

  7. Bayesian optimization analysis of containment-venting operation in a boiling water reactor severe accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zheng, Xiaoyu; Ishikawa, Jun; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maryyama, Yu [Nuclear Safety Research Center, Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Ibaraki (Japan)

    2017-03-15

    Containment venting is one of several essential measures to protect the integrity of the final barrier of a nuclear reactor during severe accidents, by which the uncontrollable release of fission products can be avoided. The authors seek to develop an optimization approach to venting operations, from a simulation-based perspective, using an integrated severe accident code, THALES2/KICHE. The effectiveness of the containment-venting strategies needs to be verified via numerical simulations based on various settings of the venting conditions. The number of iterations, however, needs to be controlled to avoid cumbersome computational burden of integrated codes. Bayesian optimization is an efficient global optimization approach. By using a Gaussian process regression, a surrogate model of the “black-box” code is constructed. It can be updated simultaneously whenever new simulation results are acquired. With predictions via the surrogate model, upcoming locations of the most probable optimum can be revealed. The sampling procedure is adaptive. Compared with the case of pure random searches, the number of code queries is largely reduced for the optimum finding. One typical severe accident scenario of a boiling water reactor is chosen as an example. The research demonstrates the applicability of the Bayesian optimization approach to the design and establishment of containment-venting strategies during severe accidents.

  8. Bayesian operational modal analysis with asynchronous data, part I: Most probable value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yi-Chen; Au, Siu-Kui

    2018-01-01

    In vibration tests, multiple sensors are used to obtain detailed mode shape information about the tested structure. Time synchronisation among data channels is required in conventional modal identification approaches. Modal identification can be more flexibly conducted if this is not required. Motivated by the potential gain in feasibility and economy, this work proposes a Bayesian frequency domain method for modal identification using asynchronous 'output-only' ambient data, i.e. 'operational modal analysis'. It provides a rigorous means for identifying the global mode shape taking into account the quality of the measured data and their asynchronous nature. This paper (Part I) proposes an efficient algorithm for determining the most probable values of modal properties. The method is validated using synthetic and laboratory data. The companion paper (Part II) investigates identification uncertainty and challenges in applications to field vibration data.

  9. Partial inversion of elliptic operator to speed up computation of likelihood in Bayesian inference

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2017-08-09

    In this paper, we speed up the solution of inverse problems in Bayesian settings. By computing the likelihood, the most expensive part of the Bayesian formula, one compares the available measurement data with the simulated data. To get simulated data, repeated solution of the forward problem is required. This could be a great challenge. Often, the available measurement is a functional $F(u)$ of the solution $u$ or a small part of $u$. Typical examples of $F(u)$ are the solution in a point, solution on a coarser grid, in a small subdomain, the mean value in a subdomain. It is a waste of computational resources to evaluate, first, the whole solution and then compute a part of it. In this work, we compute the functional $F(u)$ direct, without computing the full inverse operator and without computing the whole solution $u$. The main ingredients of the developed approach are the hierarchical domain decomposition technique, the finite element method and the Schur complements. To speed up computations and to reduce the storage cost, we approximate the forward operator and the Schur complement in the hierarchical matrix format. Applying the hierarchical matrix technique, we reduced the computing cost to $\\\\mathcal{O}(k^2n \\\\log^2 n)$, where $k\\\\ll n$ and $n$ is the number of degrees of freedom. Up to the $\\\\H$-matrix accuracy, the computation of the functional $F(u)$ is exact. To reduce the computational resources further, we can approximate $F(u)$ on, for instance, multiple coarse meshes. The offered method is well suited for solving multiscale problems. A disadvantage of this method is the assumption that one has to have access to the discretisation and to the procedure of assembling the Galerkin matrix.

  10. Post-operative neuromuscular function of patients receiving non ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives: To determine the number of patients whose non-depolarising muscle relaxation is adequately reversed. To define factors that contribute to reversal. Design: A cross sectional study. Setting: Universitas Hospital recovery room over a 2 month period. Subjects: Patients that received non-depolarising muscle ...

  11. Profiling MS proteomics data using smoothed non-linear energy operator and Bayesian additive regression trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Shan; Li, Xiaoli; Viant, Mark R; Yao, Xin

    2009-09-01

    This paper proposes a novel profiling method for SELDI-TOF and MALDI-TOF MS data that integrates a novel peak detection method based on modified smoothed non-linear energy operator, correlation-based peak selection and Bayesian additive regression trees. The peak detection and classification performance of the proposed approach is validated on two publicly available MS data sets, namely MALDI-TOF simulation data and high-resolution SELDI-TOF ovarian cancer data. The results compared favorably with three state-of-the-art peak detection algorithms and four machine-learning algorithms. For the high-resolution ovarian cancer data set, seven biomarkers (m/z windows) were found by our method, which achieved 97.30 and 99.10% accuracy at 25th and 75th percentiles, respectively, from 50 independent cross-validation samples, which is significantly better than other profiling and dimensional reduction methods. The results show that the method is capable of finding parsimonious sets of biologically meaningful biomarkers with better accuracy than existing methods. Supporting Information material and MATLAB/R scripts to implement the methods described in the article are available at: http://www.cs.bham.ac.uk/szh/SourceCode-for-Proteomics.zip.

  12. Experiments for Evaluating Application of Bayesian Inference to Situation Awareness of Human Operators in NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Seongkeun; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to confirm if Bayesian inference can properly reflect the situation awareness of real human operators, and find the difference between the situation of ideal and practical operators, and investigate the factors which contributes to those difference. As a results, human can not think like computer. If human can memorize all the information, and their thinking process is same to the CPU of computer, the results of these two experiments come out more than 99%. However the probability of finding right malfunction by humans are only 64.52% in simple experiment, and 51.61% in complex experiment. Cognition is the mental processing that includes the attention of working memory, comprehending and producing language, calculating, reasoning, problem solving, and decision making. There are many reasons why human thinking process is different with computer, but in this experiment, we suggest that the working memory is the most important factor. Humans have limited working memory which has only seven chunks capacity. These seven chunks are called magic number. If there are more than seven sequential information, people start to forget the previous information because their working memory capacity is running over. We can check how much working memory affects to the result through the simple experiment. Then what if we neglect the effect of working memory? The total number of subjects who have incorrect memory is 7 (subject 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 15, 25). They could find the right malfunction if the memory hadn't changed because of lack of working memory. Then the probability of find correct malfunction will be increased to 87.10% from 64.52%. Complex experiment has similar result. In this case, eight subjects(1, 5, 8, 9, 15, 17, 18, 30) had changed the memory, and it affects to find the right malfunction. Considering it, then the probability would be (16+8)/31 = 77.42%

  13. Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toroody, Ahmad Bahoo; Abaiee, Mohammad Mahdi; Gholamnia, Reza; Ketabdari, Mohammad Javad

    2016-09-01

    Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.

  14. Preliminary analysis of the operating characteristics of a generic repository receiving facility: Status report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-10-01

    The operating characteristics of a repository receiving facility structured around current technology and practices have been reviewed. Cask turnaround times and operator doses were estimated. Large throughout and long-term receiving operations at a nuclear waste repository result in an unprecedented number of casks being handled. While the current generation of material-handling equipment is adequate to process the casks, personnel radiation exposures for the generic facility analyzed are unacceptably high. This emphasizes the need for development of occupational radiation exposure control concepts for application in repository receiving facilities. 3 refs., 22 figs., 6 tabs

  15. Experiments for Evaluating Application of Bayesian Inference to Situation Awareness of Human Operators in NPPs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Seong Keun; Seong, Poong Hyun [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-08-15

    Bayesian methodology has been used widely used in various research fields. It is method of inference using Bayes' rule to update the estimation of probability for the certain hypothesis when additional evidences are acquired. According to the current researches, malfunction of nuclear power plant can be detected by using this Bayesian inference which consistently piles up the newly incoming data and updates its estimation. However, those researches are based on the assumption that people are doing like computer perfectly, which can be criticized and may cause a problem in real world application. Studies in cognitive psychology indicates that when the amount of information becomes larger, people can't save the whole data because people have limited memory capacity which is well known as working memory, and also they have attention problem. The purpose of this paper is to consider the psychological factors and confirm how much this working memory and attention will affect the resulted estimation based on the Bayesian inference. To confirm this, experiment on human is needed, and the tool of experiment is Compact Nuclear Simulator (CNS)

  16. Experiments for Evaluating Application of Bayesian Inference to Situation Awareness of Human Operators in NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Seong Keun; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian methodology has been used widely used in various research fields. It is method of inference using Bayes' rule to update the estimation of probability for the certain hypothesis when additional evidences are acquired. According to the current researches, malfunction of nuclear power plant can be detected by using this Bayesian inference which consistently piles up the newly incoming data and updates its estimation. However, those researches are based on the assumption that people are doing like computer perfectly, which can be criticized and may cause a problem in real world application. Studies in cognitive psychology indicates that when the amount of information becomes larger, people can't save the whole data because people have limited memory capacity which is well known as working memory, and also they have attention problem. The purpose of this paper is to consider the psychological factors and confirm how much this working memory and attention will affect the resulted estimation based on the Bayesian inference. To confirm this, experiment on human is needed, and the tool of experiment is Compact Nuclear Simulator (CNS)

  17. Robust Biometric Score Fusion by Naive Likelihood Ratio via Receiver Operating Characteristics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tao, Q.; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.

    This paper presents a novel method of fusing multiple biometrics on the matching score level. We estimate the likelihood ratios of the fused biometric scores, via individual receiver operating characteristics (ROC) which construct the Naive Bayes classifier. Using a limited number of operation

  18. Correlator receiver architecture with PnpN optical thyristor operating as optical hard-limiter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Tae-Gu; Ho Lee, Su; Park, Soonchul

    2011-07-01

    We propose novel correlator receiver architecture with a PnpN optical thyristor operating as optical hard-limiter, and demonstrate a multiple-access interference rejection of the proposed correlator receiver. The proposed correlator receiver is composed of the 1×2 splitter, optical delay line, 2×1 combiner, and fabricated PnpN optical thyristor. The proposed correlator receiver enhances the system performance because it excludes some combinations of multiple-access interference patterns from causing errors as in optical code-division multiple access systems with conventional optical receiver shown in all previous works. It is found that the proposed correlator receiver can fully reject the interference signals generated by decoding processing and multiple access for two simultaneous users.

  19. Bootstrap-based procedures for inference in nonparametric receiver-operating characteristic curve regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Álvarez, María Xosé; Roca-Pardiñas, Javier; Cadarso-Suárez, Carmen; Tahoces, Pablo G

    2018-03-01

    Prior to using a diagnostic test in a routine clinical setting, the rigorous evaluation of its diagnostic accuracy is essential. The receiver-operating characteristic curve is the measure of accuracy most widely used for continuous diagnostic tests. However, the possible impact of extra information about the patient (or even the environment) on diagnostic accuracy also needs to be assessed. In this paper, we focus on an estimator for the covariate-specific receiver-operating characteristic curve based on direct regression modelling and nonparametric smoothing techniques. This approach defines the class of generalised additive models for the receiver-operating characteristic curve. The main aim of the paper is to offer new inferential procedures for testing the effect of covariates on the conditional receiver-operating characteristic curve within the above-mentioned class. Specifically, two different bootstrap-based tests are suggested to check (a) the possible effect of continuous covariates on the receiver-operating characteristic curve and (b) the presence of factor-by-curve interaction terms. The validity of the proposed bootstrap-based procedures is supported by simulations. To facilitate the application of these new procedures in practice, an R-package, known as npROCRegression, is provided and briefly described. Finally, data derived from a computer-aided diagnostic system for the automatic detection of tumour masses in breast cancer is analysed.

  20. GLASS 2.0: An Operational, Multimodal, Bayesian Earthquake Data Association Engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benz, H.; Johnson, C. E.; Patton, J. M.; McMahon, N. D.; Earle, P. S.

    2015-12-01

    The legacy approach to automated detection and determination of hypocenters is arrival time stacking algorithms. Examples of such algorithms are the associator, Binder, which has been in continuous use in many USGS-supported regional seismic networks since the 1980s and the spherical earth successor, GLASS 1.0, currently in service at the USGS National Earthquake Information Center for over 10 years. The principle short-comings of the legacy approach are 1) it can only use phase arrival times, 2) it does not adequately address the problems of extreme variations in station density worldwide, 3) it cannot incorporate multiple phase models or statistical attributes of phases with distance, and 4) it cannot incorporate noise model attributes of individual stations. Previously we introduced a theoretical framework of a new associator using a Bayesian kernel stacking approach to approximate a joint probability density function for hypocenter localization. More recently we added station- and phase-specific Bayesian constraints to the association process. GLASS 2.0 incorporates a multiplicity of earthquake related data including phase arrival times, back-azimuth and slowness information from array beamforming, arrival times from waveform cross correlation processing, and geographic constraints from real-time social media reports of ground shaking. We demonstrate its application by modeling an aftershock sequence using dozens of stations that recorded tens of thousands of earthquakes over a period of one month. We also demonstrate Glass 2.0 performance regionally and teleseismically using the globally distributed real-time monitoring system at NEIC.

  1. Receiver operating characteristics of perceptrons : Influence of sample size and prevalence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Freking, Ansgar; Biehl, Michael; Braun, Christian; Kinzel, Wolfgang; Meesmann, Malte

    1999-01-01

    In many practical classification problems it is important to distinguish false positive from false negative results when evaluating the performance of the classifier. This is of particular importance for medical diagnostic tests. In this context, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have

  2. Long Length Contaminated Equipment Retrieval System Receiver Trailer and Transport Trailer Operations and Maintenance Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DALE, R.N.

    2000-05-01

    A system to accommodate the removal of long-length contaminated equipment (LLCE) from Hanford underground radioactive waste storage tanks was designed, procured, and demonstrated, via a project activity during the 1990s. The system is the Long Length Contaminated Equipment Removal System (LLCERS). LLCERS will be maintained and operated by Tank Farms Engineering and Operations organizations and other varied projects having a need for the system. The responsibility for the operation and maintenance of the LLCERS Receiver Trailer (RT) and Transport Trailer (TT) resides with the RPP Characterization Project Operations organization. The purpose of this document is to provide vendor supplied operating and maintenance (O & M) information for the RT and TT in a readily retrievable form. This information is provided this way instead of in a vendor information (VI) file to maintain configuration control of the operations baseline as described in RPP-6085, ''Configuration Management Plan for Long Length Contaminated Equipment Receiver and Transport Trailers''. Additional Operations Baseline documents are identified in RPP-6085.

  3. Long Length Contaminated Equipment Retrieval System Receiver Trailer and Transport Trailer Operations and Maintenance Manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DALE, R.N.

    2000-01-01

    A system to accommodate the removal of long-length contaminated equipment (LLCE) from Hanford underground radioactive waste storage tanks was designed, procured, and demonstrated, via a project activity during the 1990s. The system is the Long Length Contaminated Equipment Removal System (LLCERS). LLCERS will be maintained and operated by Tank Farms Engineering and Operations organizations and other varied projects having a need for the system. The responsibility for the operation and maintenance of the LLCERS Receiver Trailer (RT) and Transport Trailer (TT) resides with the RPP Characterization Project Operations organization. The purpose of this document is to provide vendor supplied operating and maintenance (O and M) information for the RT and TT in a readily retrievable form. This information is provided this way instead of in a vendor information (VI) file to maintain configuration control of the operations baseline as described in RPP-6085, ''Configuration Management Plan for Long Length Contaminated Equipment Receiver and Transport Trailers''. Additional Operations Baseline documents are identified in RPP-6085

  4. Predicting a Containership's Arrival Punctuality in Liner Operations by Using a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBBN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Haqimin Mohd Salleh

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the biggest concerns in liner operations is punctuality of containerships. Managing the time factor has become a crucial issue in today's liner shipping operations. A statistic in 2015 showed that the overall punctuality for containerships only reached an on-time performance of 73%. However, vessel punctuality is affected by many factors such as the port and vessel conditions and knock-on effects of delays. As a result, this paper develops a model for analyzing and predicting the arrival punctuality of a liner vessel at ports of call under uncertain environments by using a hybrid decision-making technique, the Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBBN. In order to ensure the practicability of the model, two container vessels have been tested by using the proposed model. The results have shown that the differences between prediction values and real arrival times are only 4.2% and 6.6%, which can be considered as reasonable. This model is capable of helping liner shipping operators (LSOs to predict the arrival punctuality of their vessel at a particular port of call.

  5. Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve-Based Prediction Model for Periodontal Disease Updated With the Calibrated Community Periodontal Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Chiu-Wen; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Lai, Hongmin; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng

    2017-12-01

    The accuracy of a prediction model for periodontal disease using the community periodontal index (CPI) has been undertaken by using an area under a receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve. How the uncalibrated CPI, as measured by general dentists trained by periodontists in a large epidemiologic study, and affects the performance in a prediction model, has not been researched yet. A two-stage design was conducted by first proposing a validation study to calibrate CPI between a senior periodontal specialist and trained general dentists who measured CPIs in the main study of a nationwide survey. A Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression model was applied to estimate the non-updated and updated clinical weights used for building up risk scores. How the calibrated CPI affected performance of the updated prediction model was quantified by comparing AUROC curves between the original and updated models. Estimates regarding calibration of CPI obtained from the validation study were 66% and 85% for sensitivity and specificity, respectively. After updating, clinical weights of each predictor were inflated, and the risk score for the highest risk category was elevated from 434 to 630. Such an update improved the AUROC performance of the two corresponding prediction models from 62.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 61.7% to 63.6%) for the non-updated model to 68.9% (95% CI: 68.0% to 69.6%) for the updated one, reaching a statistically significant difference (P prediction model was demonstrated for periodontal disease as measured by the calibrated CPI derived from a large epidemiologic survey.

  6. Uncertainty assessment via Bayesian revision of ensemble streamflow predictions in the operational river Rhine forecasting system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reggiani, P.; Renner, M.; Weerts, A.H.; Van Gelder, P.A.H.J.M.

    2009-01-01

    Ensemble streamflow forecasts obtained by using hydrological models with ensemble weather products are becoming more frequent in operational flow forecasting. The uncertainty of the ensemble forecast needs to be assessed for these products to become useful in forecasting operations. A comprehensive

  7. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) to Determine Cut-Off Points of Biomarkers in Lung Cancer Patients

    OpenAIRE

    Weiss, Heidi L.; Niwas, Santosh; Grizzle, William E.; Piyathilake, Chandrika

    2004-01-01

    The role of biomarkers in disease prognosis continues to be an important investigation in many cancer studies. In order for these biomarkers to have practical application in clinical decision making regarding patient treatment and follow-up, it is common to dichotomize patients into those with low vs. high expression levels. In this study, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC, sensitivity, specificity, as well as likelihood ratios were calculat...

  8. Operator decision support system for integrated wastewater management including wastewater treatment plants and receiving water bodies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Minsoo; Kim, Yejin; Kim, Hyosoo; Piao, Wenhua; Kim, Changwon

    2016-06-01

    An operator decision support system (ODSS) is proposed to support operators of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in making appropriate decisions. This system accounts for water quality (WQ) variations in WWTP influent and effluent and in the receiving water body (RWB). The proposed system is comprised of two diagnosis modules, three prediction modules, and a scenario-based supporting module (SSM). In the diagnosis modules, the WQs of the influent and effluent WWTP and of the RWB are assessed via multivariate analysis. Three prediction modules based on the k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) method, activated sludge model no. 2d (ASM2d) model, and QUAL2E model are used to forecast WQs for 3 days in advance. To compare various operating alternatives, SSM is applied to test various predetermined operating conditions in terms of overall oxygen transfer coefficient (Kla), waste sludge flow rate (Qw), return sludge flow rate (Qr), and internal recycle flow rate (Qir). In the case of unacceptable total phosphorus (TP), SSM provides appropriate information for the chemical treatment. The constructed ODSS was tested using data collected from Geumho River, which was the RWB, and S WWTP in Daegu City, South Korea. The results demonstrate the capability of the proposed ODSS to provide WWTP operators with more objective qualitative and quantitative assessments of WWTP and RWB WQs. Moreover, the current study shows that ODSS, using data collected from the study area, can be used to identify operational alternatives through SSM at an integrated urban wastewater management level.

  9. [Comparative retrospective analysis of pain afflictions in patients with lumbar discopathy receiving conservative or operative therapies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radziszewski, Krzysztof Roch

    2006-10-01

    Pain afflictions are the basic problems in patients with discopathy of the lumbar backbone. Pain control is the key therapeutic task in patients with a disease of the intervertebral disc. Degree of reduction of the pain sensations is one of the most important criteria in assessment of the treatment efficacy. of this study was to evaluate the pain afflictions in patients with lumbar discopathy treated with conservative and operative therapies. 665 patients aged between 16 and 76 years with discopathy at L4-L5 and L5-S1 levels have been enrolled to the study. In estimated group 348 patients received only a conservative therapy whereas 317 patients undergone an operative procedure. Analysis has been performed based on pain rating scores: Low Back Pain Rating Scale (LBPRS), Japanese Orthopedic Association Low Back Pain Score (JOA-LBPS), Domial's pain rating score. Results of performed studies show that conservative and operative treatment significantly alleviate pain affliction in patients with lumbar discopathy. Complete abatement of pain afflictions more frequent refers to operated patients than those only receiving conservative therapy. Alleviation of pain afflictions within a period of three years following operating procedure is significantly higher than within analogous period of conservative treatment. Reduction of pain obtained as a result of surgical procedure in higher degree refers to limb than backbone. Treatment method does not exert an influence on nature of pain afflictions within distant period. Alleviation of pain afflictions within a period of three years following operating procedure is significantly higher than within analogous period of conservative treatment. Treatment method does not exert an influence on nature of pain afflictions within distant period. Patients at the age of above 50 notify the higher level of intensity of pain ailments than young patients and patients in mid age.

  10. Classification and recognition in artificial grammar learning: Analysis of receiver operating characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotz, Anja; Kinder, Annette

    2006-04-01

    In two experiments we investigated recognition and classification judgements using an artificial grammar learning paradigm. In Experiment 1, when only new test items had to be judged, analysis of z-transformed receiver operating characteristics (z-ROCs) revealed no differences between classification and recognition. In Experiment 2, where we included old test items, z-ROCs in the two tasks differed, suggesting that judgements relied on different types of information. The results are interpreted in terms of heuristics that people use when making classification and recognition judgements.

  11. [Comparative analysis of the neurological status in patients with lumbar discopathy receiving conservative or operative therapies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radziszewski, Krzysztof Roch

    2007-03-01

    Neurological examination is one of basic assessment methods of the patients with discopathy of the lumbar spine. Neurological status of the patients can significantly change depending on progression of the disease of the intervertebral disc. It often determines a selection of the treatment method; it is also important criterion for assessment of efficacy of the accepted procedure. The aim of this study was to retrospectively evaluate neurological status in the patients with lumbar discopathy receiving only conservative therapy as well as undergoing surgical procedures. 665 patients aged between 16 and 76 years with discopathy at L4-L5 and L5-S1 levels have been enrolled to the study. In estimated group 348 patients received only a conservative therapy whereas 317 patients undergone an operative procedure. Study included hospitalization period and more than ten year period after discharge from the Clinic. Collected material has been analyzed in tree age groups: young persons (up to 30), mid age persons (31-50 years) and older persons (at the age of above 50). Neurological examination included analysis of the following parameters: cough symptom, Laségue's sign, stretch reflexes (patellar, ankle), superficial perception and vibration, function of sphincters, muscular power). No significant progression of the neurological symptoms up to the fifth year of treatment has been seen in group of patients receiving conservative therapy. In group of operated patients starting the second year after surgical procedure, number of diagnosed pathological neurological symptoms systematically was increasing. Patients at the age above 50 presented significantly higher level of neurological disturbances than young and patients in mid age. In the baseline study, level of diagnosed neurological disturbances in group of patients referred to surgical procedure was significantly higher than in group of patients receiving only conservative therapy. Conservative treatment and operative

  12. Sources of expertise in transportation planning, management, and operations: Information received as of September 25, 1987

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    The DOE Office of Storage and Transportation Systems is responsible for the development and management of a transportation system to provide all the necessary services for the transportation of the spent fuel and wastes from reactor sites to repositories. DOE/ORO has requested Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU) to assist DOE in developing rosters of sources of transportation expertise in: (1) carrier operations; (2) transportation management, planning, and logistics; (3) transportation equipment; (4) transportation facilities design and operation; (5) vehicle safety; and (6) transportation operations quality assurance; as related to truck, rail, barge, and intermodal transportation. Persons or organizations with experience in shipping of non-hazardous materials, spent nuclear fuel, other radioactive materials, and/or other hazardous materials were included in the information system. A mailed inquiry was sent to over 2300 potential sources of transportation expertise. Responses were received from 207 persons and 254 organizations. Section 1 contains the identification numbers of the individuals and organizations that responded. Section 2 contains identification codes, names, addresses, and phone numbers of each of the individual and organization respondents. The reader can refer to Section 2 for the name and address of the respondents for the identification codes listed for each technical area/experience base in Section 1

  13. Optimal algorithm for automatic detection of microaneurysms based on receiver operating characteristic curve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lili; Luo, Shuqian

    2010-01-01

    Microaneurysms (MAs) are the first manifestations of the diabetic retinopathy (DR) as well as an indicator for its progression. Their automatic detection plays a key role for both mass screening and monitoring and is therefore in the core of any system for computer-assisted diagnosis of DR. The algorithm basically comprises the following stages: candidate detection aiming at extracting the patterns possibly corresponding to MAs based on mathematical morphological black top hat, feature extraction to characterize these candidates, and classification based on support vector machine (SVM), to validate MAs. Feature vector and kernel function of SVM selection is very important to the algorithm. We use the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to evaluate the distinguishing performance of different feature vectors and different kernel functions of SVM. The ROC analysis indicates the quadratic polynomial SVM with a combination of features as the input shows the best discriminating performance.

  14. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves: review of methods with applications in diagnostic medicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obuchowski, Nancy A.; Bullen, Jennifer A.

    2018-04-01

    Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is a tool used to describe the discrimination accuracy of a diagnostic test or prediction model. While sensitivity and specificity are the basic metrics of accuracy, they have many limitations when characterizing test accuracy, particularly when comparing the accuracies of competing tests. In this article we review the basic study design features of ROC studies, illustrate sample size calculations, present statistical methods for measuring and comparing accuracy, and highlight commonly used ROC software. We include descriptions of multi-reader ROC study design and analysis, address frequently seen problems of verification and location bias, discuss clustered data, and provide strategies for testing endpoints in ROC studies. The methods are illustrated with a study of transmission ultrasound for diagnosing breast lesions.

  15. Transmission dynamics of Mycoplasma bovis in newly received beef bulls at fattening operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timsit, Edouard; Arcangioli, Marie-Anne; Bareille, Nathalie; Seegers, Henri; Assié, Sébastien

    2012-11-01

    Mycoplasma bovis is an important cause of bovine respiratory disease (BRD) in newly received cattle at fattening operations. However, little information on its within-pen transmission dynamics during a BRD outbreak is available. Such information is nevertheless crucial to adapt control measures during M. bovis-associated BRD outbreaks. The objective of the current study was to determine whether single or multiple clones of M. bovis are present within a pen during a BRD outbreak that occurs early in the feeding period. Sixteen BRD outbreaks that naturally occurred in 12 pens of 8-12 bulls each (n = 112) newly received at 3 fattening operations were investigated. Two hundred and thirty-nine transtracheal aspirations (TTA) were performed during the outbreaks, and the M. bovis isolates obtained were characterized by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Mycoplasma bovis isolates were recovered from TTA in 8 of the 16 BRD outbreaks that occurred. The within-pen prevalence of bulls positive for M. bovis during these outbreaks ranged from 8% to 100%. The PFGE analysis revealed that, even though bulls came from multiple origins, a single clone of M. bovis was present within a pen during BRD outbreaks with a high prevalence of M. bovis infection. The study therefore indicates that, even if M. bovis can recrudesce from carriers after stressful events such as transportation and commingling, the increased prevalence of M. bovis pulmonary infection observed during BRD outbreaks that are early occurring in the feeding period seems primarily due to the horizontal transmission of only 1 clone among cattle.

  16. The Field of Eyewitness Memory Should Abandon Probative Value and Embrace Receiver Operating Characteristic Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wixted, John T; Mickes, Laura

    2012-05-01

    Clark (2012) highlights an important issue that has received inadequate attention in the eyewitness memory literature: lineup procedures that reduce the false identification rate (a desirable effect) often tend to reduce the correct identification rate as well (an undesirable effect). Determining which procedure is diagnostically superior under those conditions is not easy. Clark (2012) showed that the procedure with the lower false identification rate could be associated with higher overall costs to society once costs and benefits are both taken into consideration. Beyond the issue of cost, we argue that Clark's (2012) observation has far reaching implications for evaluating the diagnostic performance of a lineup procedure. Specifically, the field of eyewitness memory has attempted to differentiate between lineup procedures by using various measures of probative value (such as the diagnosticity ratio). However, contrary to intuition, probative value is not a relevant consideration. Instead, lineup procedures should be compared using receiver operating characteristic analysis, as is routinely done in other applied fields (such as radiology). © The Author(s) 2012.

  17. 25 CFR 47.3 - How does a Bureau-operated school find out how much funding it will receive?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... EDUCATION UNIFORM DIRECT FUNDING AND SUPPORT FOR BUREAU-OPERATED SCHOOLS § 47.3 How does a Bureau-operated school find out how much funding it will receive? The Office of Indian Education Programs (OIEP) will... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false How does a Bureau-operated school find out how much...

  18. STUDY ON THE ACCOUNTING OF ADJUSTMENTS FOR RECEIVABLES DEPRECIATION IN OPERATIONS WITH CLIENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ILIE RĂSCOLEAN

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The present work approaches an important topic for credit institutions: limiting the credit risk and determining the prudential value adjustments for the depreciation of client credits, and their reflection in the accounting statements. The Chart of Accounts applicable to credit institutions includes class-two accounts Operations with clients and expenses and revenues accounts, which help record the adjustments for receivables depreciation in operations with clients. To constitute, diminish or annul depreciations, credit institutions have the obligation to assure the classification of their credits based on classification categories according to three criteria: financial performance, debt service and initiation of juridical procedures. By the present study, we present the way the credit portfolio is structured according to the criteria mentioned and the reflection in accounting of the prudential adjustments of value. The article ends with the authors’ conclusions regarding the specificity of the way of classification of the credits according to risk categories in agreement to the evolution of the class determination criteria.

  19. A Bayesian Network approach to the evaluation of building design and its consequences for employee performance and operational costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Kasper Lynge; Toftum, Jørn; Friis-Hansen, Peter

    2009-01-01

    A Bayesian Network approach has been developed that can compare different building designs by estimating the effects of the thermal indoor environment on the mental performance of office workers. A part of this network is based on the compilation of subjective thermal sensation data and the assoc......A Bayesian Network approach has been developed that can compare different building designs by estimating the effects of the thermal indoor environment on the mental performance of office workers. A part of this network is based on the compilation of subjective thermal sensation data...... are affected by the indoor climate....

  20. Receiver operating characteristic curve evaluation on computed radiography: an experimental study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Zixi; Wang Changyuan; Xu Yue; Xie Jindong; Zhang Menglong; Wang Jian

    2003-01-01

    Objective: To get the maximum information from computed radiography (CR) output images by changing post-processing parameters. Methods: Six experimental photos of polypropylene balls of 2.0 mm in diameter were taken by means of one time X-ray exposing on an imaging plate (IP) with different post-processing parameters including rotation amount (GA), gray gradation type (GT), rotation center (GC), shifting amount (GS), frequency rank (RN), frequency type (RT), and degree of enhancement (RE). 6 photos were viewed by three students and one radiologist on a 6000 lx illuminance viewbox. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were made by means of 5-value-differentiation method. Results: The largest mean area value (Az) below ROC curves of a low contrast experimental photo with post-processing parameters GA=1.0, GT=A, GC=1.6, GS=0.3, RN=4.0, RT=R and RE=3.0 was 0.96, and the maximum information was obtained. The smallest mean area value (Az) was 0.78 with changed post-processing parameters GA=0.8, GS=-0.2 and RE=0.5 while other parameters were not changed. The minimum information was obtained from this photo. Conclusion: In order to get the maximum information from a CR output image, the post-processing parameters should be suitably selected

  1. Assessment of dysregulated children using the Child Behavior Checklist: a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Althoff, Robert R; Ayer, Lynsay A; Rettew, David C; Hudziak, James J

    2010-09-01

    Disorders of self-regulatory behavior are common reasons for referral to child and adolescent clinicians. Here, the authors sought to compare 2 methods of empirically based assessment of children with problems in self-regulatory behavior. Using parental reports on 2,028 children (53% boys) from a U.S. national probability sample of the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL; T. M. Achenbach & L. A. Rescorla, 2001), the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was applied to compare scores on the Posttraumatic Stress Problems Scale (PTSP) of the CBCL with the CBCL Dysregulation Profile (DP), identified using latent class analysis of the Attention Problems, Aggressive Behavior, and Anxious/Depressed scales of the CBCL. The CBCL-PTSP score demonstrated an area under the curve of between .88 and .91 for predicting membership in the CBCL-DP profile for boys and for girls. These findings suggest that the CBCL-PTSP, which others have shown does not uniquely identify children who have been traumatized, does identify the same profile of behavior as the CBCL-DP. Therefore, the authors recommend renaming the CBCL-PTSP the Dysregulation Short Scale and provide some guidelines for the use of the CBCL-DP scale and the CBCL-PTSP in clinical practice.

  2. Evaluating risk assessments using receiver operating characteristic analysis: rationale, advantages, insights, and limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mossman, Douglas

    2013-01-01

    The last two decades have witnessed major changes in the way that mental health professionals assess, describe, and think about persons' risk for future violence. Psychiatrists and psychologists have gone from believing that they could not predict violence to feeling certain they can assess violence risk with well-above-chance accuracy. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis has played a central role in changing this view. This article reviews the key concepts underlying ROC methods, the meaning of the area under the ROC curve (AUC), the relationship between AUC and effect size d, and what these two indices tell us about evaluations of violence risk. The area under the ROC curve and d provide succinct but incomplete descriptions of discrimination capacity. These indices do not provide details about sensitivity-specificity trade-offs; they do not tell us how to balance false-positive and false-negative errors; and they do not determine whether a diagnostic system is accurate enough to make practically useful distinctions between violent and non-violent subject groups. Justifying choices or clinical practices requires a contextual investigation of outcomes, a process that takes us beyond simply knowing global indices of accuracy. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. HARP: a submillimetre heterodyne array receiver operating on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, H.; Buckle, J.; Hills, R.; Bell, G.; Richer, J.; Curtis, E.; Withington, S.; Leech, J.; Williamson, R.; Dent, W.; Hastings, P.; Redman, R.; Wooff, B.; Yeung, K.; Friberg, P.; Walther, C.; Kackley, R.; Jenness, T.; Tilanus, R.; Dempsey, J.; Kroug, M.; Zijlstra, T.; Klapwijk, T. M.

    2008-07-01

    This paper describes the key design features and performance of HARP, an innovative heterodyne focal-plane array receiver designed and built to operate in the submillimetre on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) in Hawaii. The 4x4 element array uses SIS detectors, and is the first sub-millimetre spectral imaging system on the JCMT. HARP provides 3-dimensional imaging capability with high sensitivity at 325-375 GHz and affords significantly improved productivity in terms of speed of mapping. HARP was designed and built as a collaborative project between the Cavendish Astrophysics Group in Cambridge UK, the UK-Astronomy Technology Centre in Edinburgh UK, the Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics in Canada and the Joint Astronomy Centre in Hawaii. SIS devices for the mixers were fabricated to a Cavendish Astrophysics Group design at the Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands. Working in conjunction with the new Auto Correlation Spectral Imaging System (ACSIS), first light with HARP was achieved in December 2005. HARP synthesizes a number of interesting features across all elements of the design; we present key performance characteristics and images of astronomical observations obtained during commissioning.

  4. Application of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC Curves for Explosives Detection Using Different Sampling and Detection Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mimy Young

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Reported for the first time are receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves constructed to describe the performance of a sorbent-coated disk, planar solid phase microextraction (PSPME unit for non-contact sampling of a variety of volatiles. The PSPME is coupled to ion mobility spectrometers (IMSs for the detection of volatile chemical markers associated with the presence of smokeless powders, model systems of explosives containing diphenylamine (DPA, 2,4-dinitrotoluene (2,4-DNT and nitroglycerin (NG as the target analytes. The performance of the PSPME-IMS was compared with the widely accepted solid-phase microextraction (SPME, coupled to a GC-MS. A set of optimized sampling conditions for different volume containers (1–45 L with various sample amounts of explosives, were studied in replicates (n = 30 to determine the true positive rates (TPR and false positive detection rates (FPR for the different scenarios. These studies were obtained in order to construct the ROC curves for two IMS instruments (a bench-top and field-portable system and a bench top GC-MS system in low and high clutter environments. Both static and dynamic PSPME sampling were studied in which 10–500 mg quantities of smokeless powders were detected within 10 min of static sampling and 1 min of dynamic sampling.

  5. Effects of retention intervals on receiver operating characteristics in artificial grammar learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tunney, Richard J; Bezzina, Gilbert

    2007-05-01

    Current theories of memory suggest that recognition is composed of separate processes of familiarity and recollection (e.g. [Yonelinas, A. P. (2002). The nature of recollection and familiarity: a review of 30 years of research. Journal of Memory and Language, 46, 441-517]). A key feature of these two processes is that they decay, or are forgotten at different rates. The dual-process model has also been useful in understanding artificial grammar learning. We obtained evidence for recollection and familiarity in artificial grammar learning by analyses of receiver operating characteristics (ROC). Furthermore we found that these were dissociated by retention intervals of 14 days. The slope of the zROC curves deviated reliably from 1 immediately after study and increased towards 1 suggesting that recollection contributed to recognition decisions but declined over the 14-day period leaving familiarity as the only basis for recognition. These data show similar patterns to those observed in word-recognition [Gardiner, J. M., & Java, R. I. (1991). Forgetting in recognition memory with and without recollective experience. Memory &Cognition, 19, 617-623; Tunney, R. J. (submitted for publication). Changes in the subjective experience of recognition over time suggest independent processes] and confirm the view that recollection and familiarity are implicated in artificial grammar learning. Moreover, the data confirm the finding that recollection and familiarity-based memory show different patterns of forgetting.

  6. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC to Determine Cut-Off Points of Biomarkers in Lung Cancer Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heidi L. Weiss

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of biomarkers in disease prognosis continues to be an important investigation in many cancer studies. In order for these biomarkers to have practical application in clinical decision making regarding patient treatment and follow-up, it is common to dichotomize patients into those with low vs. high expression levels. In this study, receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves, area under the curve (AUC of the ROC, sensitivity, specificity, as well as likelihood ratios were calculated to determine levels of growth factor biomarkers that best differentiate lung cancer cases versus control subjects. Selected cut-off points for p185erbB-2 and EGFR membrane appear to have good discriminating power to differentiate control tissues versus uninvolved tissues from patients with lung cancer (AUC = 89% and 90%, respectively; while AUC increased to at least 90% for selected cut-off points for p185erbB-2 membrane, EGFR membrane, and FASE when comparing between control versus carcinoma tissues from lung cancer cases. Using data from control subjects compared to patients with lung cancer, we presented a simple and intuitive approach to determine dichotomized levels of biomarkers and validated the value of these biomarkers as surrogate endpoints for cancer outcome.

  7. Measuring diagnostic and predictive accuracy in disease management: an introduction to receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linden, Ariel

    2006-04-01

    Diagnostic or predictive accuracy concerns are common in all phases of a disease management (DM) programme, and ultimately play an influential role in the assessment of programme effectiveness. Areas, such as the identification of diseased patients, predictive modelling of future health status and costs and risk stratification, are just a few of the domains in which assessment of accuracy is beneficial, if not critical. The most commonly used analytical model for this purpose is the standard 2 x 2 table method in which sensitivity and specificity are calculated. However, there are several limitations to this approach, including the reliance on a single defined criterion or cut-off for determining a true-positive result, use of non-standardized measurement instruments and sensitivity to outcome prevalence. This paper introduces the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis as a more appropriate and useful technique for assessing diagnostic and predictive accuracy in DM. Its advantages include; testing accuracy across the entire range of scores and thereby not requiring a predetermined cut-off point, easily examined visual and statistical comparisons across tests or scores, and independence from outcome prevalence. Therefore the implementation of ROC as an evaluation tool should be strongly considered in the various phases of a DM programme.

  8. Receiver operating characteristic analysis of eyewitness memory: comparing the diagnostic accuracy of simultaneous versus sequential lineups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickes, Laura; Flowe, Heather D; Wixted, John T

    2012-12-01

    A police lineup presents a real-world signal-detection problem because there are two possible states of the world (the suspect is either innocent or guilty), some degree of information about the true state of the world is available (the eyewitness has some degree of memory for the perpetrator), and a decision is made (identifying the suspect or not). A similar state of affairs applies to diagnostic tests in medicine because, in a patient, the disease is either present or absent, a diagnostic test yields some degree of information about the true state of affairs, and a decision is made about the presence or absence of the disease. In medicine, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is the standard method for assessing diagnostic accuracy. By contrast, in the eyewitness memory literature, this powerful technique has never been used. Instead, researchers have attempted to assess the diagnostic performance of different lineup procedures using methods that cannot identify the better procedure (e.g., by computing a diagnosticity ratio). Here, we describe the basics of ROC analysis, explaining why it is needed and showing how to use it to measure the performance of different lineup procedures. To illustrate the unique advantages of this technique, we also report 3 ROC experiments that were designed to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of simultaneous versus sequential lineups. According to our findings, the sequential procedure appears to be inferior to the simultaneous procedure in discriminating between the presence versus absence of a guilty suspect in a lineup.

  9. Identifying indicators of harmful and problem gambling in a Canadian sample through receiver operating characteristic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quilty, Lena C; Avila Murati, Daniela; Bagby, R Michael

    2014-03-01

    Many gamblers would prefer to reduce gambling on their own rather than to adopt an abstinence approach within the context of a gambling treatment program. Yet responsible gambling guidelines lack quantifiable markers to guide gamblers in wagering safely. To address these issues, the current investigation implemented receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify behavioral indicators of harmful and problem gambling. Gambling involvement was assessed in 503 participants (275 psychiatric outpatients and 228 community gamblers) with the Canadian Problem Gambling Index. Overall gambling frequency, duration, and expenditure were able to distinguish harmful and problematic gambling at a moderate level. Indicators of harmful gambling were generated for engagement in specific gambling activities: frequency of tickets and casino; duration of bingo, casino, and investments; and expenditures on bingo, casino, sports betting, games of skill, and investments. Indicators of problem gambling were similarly produced for frequency of tickets and casino, and expenditures on bingo, casino, games of skill, and investments. Logistic regression analyses revealed that overall gambling frequency uniquely predicted the presence of harmful and problem gambling. Furthermore, frequency indicators for tickets and casino uniquely predicted the presence of both harmful and problem gambling. Together, these findings contribute to the development of an empirically based method enabling the minimization of harmful or problem gambling through self-control rather than abstinence.

  10. Receiver operating characteristic analysis of regional cerebral blood flow in Alzheimer's disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zemcov, A.; Barclay, L.L.; Sansone, J.; Metz, C.E.

    1985-01-01

    Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to quantitatively assess the ability of individual detectors in a 32-detector 133 Xe inhalation system to discriminate between two populations over the range of regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) values. These populations were clinically evaluated as normal (age 63.1 +/- 13.1, n = 23) and presumed Alzheimer's disease (age 72.7 +/- 7.0, n = 82). Summary statistics showed that for homologous detectors the average value of blood flow in the normal group was greater than the flow value in the group of subjects with Alzheimer's disease. Conclusions drawn from single values of flow or mean hemispheric flow can lead to erroneous conclusions about hemisphere asymmetries. However, the dynamic relationship between the correct identifications (true positives) compared with incorrect identifications (false positives) of Alzheimer's disease at each detector varies over the range of blood flow values, and quantitative characterization of this relationship in terms of an ROC curve provides more insight into the structure of the data. Detectors approximating the speech, auditory and association cortex were most effective in discriminating between groups. Frontal detectors were marginally useful diagnostically

  11. Using a Bayesian Probabilistic Forecasting Model to Analyze the Uncertainty in Real-Time Dynamic Control of the Flood Limiting Water Level for Reservoir Operation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Dedi; Li, Xiang; Guo, Shenglian

    2015-01-01

    Dynamic control of the flood limiting water level (FLWL) is a valuable and effective way to maximize the benefits from reservoir operation without exceeding the design risk. In order to analyze the impacts of input uncertainty, a Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) is adopted. Applying quantile water...... inflow values and their uncertainties obtained from the BFS, the reservoir operation results from different schemes can be analyzed in terms of benefits, dam safety, and downstream impacts during the flood season. When the reservoir FLWL dynamic control operation is implemented, there are two fundamental......, also deterministic water inflow was tested. The proposed model in the paper emphasizes the importance of analyzing the uncertainties of the water inflow forecasting system for real-time dynamic control of the FLWL for reservoir operation. For the case study, the selected quantile inflow from...

  12. Dose-volume histogram parameters for predicting radiation pneumonitis using receiver operating characteristic curve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Dongqing; Zhang Jian; Li Baosheng; Sun Hongfu

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To assess the accuracy (ACC), sensitivity (SEN), and specificity (SPE) of dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters in predicting the radiation pneumonitis (RP) using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Methods: Complete clinical data of 118 non-small cell lung cancer patients treated with three-dimensional conformal and intensity-modulated radiotherapy plus chemotherapy were included. Chi-square and logistic regression were retrospectively applied to analyze the correlations between DVH parameters [relative lung volume received ≥ 5 Gy (V 5 ), 10 Gy (V 10 ), 13 Gy (V 13 ), 20 Gy (V 20 ) and 30 Gy (V 30 ) and mean lung dose (MLD)] and grade 2 (and above) RP defined by the National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 3.0. ROC curve was adopted to investigate the predictive ACC, SEN and SPE of potential DVH parameters associated with RP. Results: Total lungs V 5 , V 10 , V 13 , V 20 and MLD were all correlated to the development of RP (χ 2 =4.786, 5.771, 6.366, 7.367 and 6.945, P<0.05) according to univariate analysis. However, total lungs V 30 , patient characteristics (age, sex, KPS, tumor location, pathology) and treatment factors (prescription dose, radiotherapy technique, chemotherapy method and timing) were not contributors to RP. Logistic regression showed that V 20 of both lungs remains tight by associated with RP (χ 2 =10.96, OR=4.16, 95% CI 1.40 ∼ 12.36, P<0.05), although significant colinearity was found between V 20 and other DVH parameters (r=0.767-0.902, P<0.05). ROC curve confirmed that V 20 of both lungs could act as a predictor for RP (Z=2.038, P<0.05). The predictive ACC, SEN, and SPE were 0.645 (95% CI 0.498-0.793), 0.650 (95% CI 0.408-0.864), and 0.674 (95% CI 0.571-0.765), respectively. However, the positive predictive value was only 28.9%. Conclusions: V 20 of both lungs was correlated to the development of RP. It could act as a predictor for RP though the predictability is limited

  13. Exploring medical diagnostic performance using interactive, multi-parameter sourced receiver operating characteristic scatter plots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Hyatt E; Andlauer, Olivier; Simon, Noah; Mignot, Emmanuel

    2014-04-01

    Determining diagnostic criteria for specific disorders is often a tedious task that involves determining optimal diagnostic thresholds for symptoms and biomarkers using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) statistics. To help this endeavor, we developed softROC, a user-friendly graphic-based tool that lets users visually explore possible ROC tradeoffs. The software requires MATLAB installation and an Excel file containing threshold symptoms/biological measures, with corresponding gold standard diagnoses for a set of patients. The software scans the input file for diagnostic and symptom/biomarkers columns, and populates the graphical-user-interface (GUI). Users select symptoms/biomarkers of interest using Boolean algebra as potential inputs to create diagnostic criteria outputs. The software evaluates subtests across the user-established range of cut-points and compares them to a gold standard in order to generate ROC and quality ROC scatter plots. These plots can be examined interactively to find optimal cut-points of interest for a given application (e.g. sensitivity versus specificity needs). Split-set validation can also be used to set up criteria and validate these in independent samples. Bootstrapping is used to produce confidence intervals. Additional statistics and measures are provided, such as the area under the ROC curve (AUC). As a testing set, softROC is used to investigate nocturnal polysomnogram measures as diagnostic features for narcolepsy. All measures can be outputted to a text file for offline analysis. The softROC toolbox, with clinical training data and tutorial instruction manual, is provided as supplementary material and can be obtained online at http://www.stanford.edu/~hyatt4/software/softroc or from the open source repository at http://www.github.com/informaton/softroc. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Bayesian biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Lesaffre, Emmanuel

    2012-01-01

    The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd

  15. Receiver operating characteristic analysis for the detection of simulated microcalcifications on mammograms using hardcopy images

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lai, C J [Department of Imaging Physics, University of Texas M D Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Shaw, Chris C [Department of Imaging Physics, University of Texas M D Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Whitman, Gary J [Department of Diagnostic Radiology, University of Texas M D Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Yang, Wei T [Department of Diagnostic Radiology, University of Texas M D Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Dempsey, Peter J [Department of Diagnostic Radiology, University of Texas M D Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Nguyen, Victoria [Department of Diagnostic Radiology, University of Texas M D Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Ice, Mary F [Department of Diagnostic Radiology, University of Texas M D Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States)

    2006-08-21

    The aim of this study was to compare mammography systems based on three different detectors-a conventional screen-film (SF) combination, an a-Si/CsI flat-panel (FP)-based detector, and a charge-coupled device (CCD)-based x-ray phosphor-based detector-for their performance in detecting simulated microcalcifications (MCs). 112-150 {mu}m calcium carbonate grains were used to simulate MCs and were overlapped with a slab phantom of simulated 50% adipose/50% glandular breast tissue-equivalent material referred to as the uniform background. For the tissue structure background, 200-250 {mu}m calcium carbonate grains were used and overlapped with an anthropomorphic breast phantom. All MC phantom images were acquired with and without magnification (1.8X). The hardcopy images were reviewed by five mammographers. A five-point confidence level rating was used to score each detection task. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed, and the areas under the ROC curves (A{sub z}s) were used to compare the performances of the three mammography systems under various conditions. The results showed that, with a uniform background and contact images, the FP-based system performed significantly better than the SF and the CCD-based systems. For magnified images with a uniform background, the SF and the FP-based systems performed equally well and significantly better than the CCD-based system. With tissue structure background and contact images, the SF system performed significantly better than the FP and the CCD-based systems. With magnified images and a tissue structure background, the SF and the CCD-based systems performed equally well and significantly better than the FP-based system. In the detection of MCs in the fibroglandular and the heterogeneously dense regions, no significant differences were found except that the SF system performed significantly better than the CCD-based system in the fibroglandular regions for the contact images.

  16. Determining Crust and Upper Mantle Structure by Bayesian Joint Inversion of Receiver Functions and Surface Wave Dispersion at a Single Station: Preparation for Data from the InSight Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, M.; Panning, M. P.; Lekic, V.; Gao, C.

    2017-12-01

    The InSight (Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) mission will deploy a geophysical station on Mars in 2018. Using seismology to explore the interior structure of the Mars is one of the main targets, and as part of the mission, we will use 3-component seismic data to constrain the crust and upper mantle structure including P and S wave velocities and densities underneath the station. We will apply a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm in the transdimensional hierarchical Bayesian inversion framework, in which the number of parameters in the model space and the noise level of the observed data are also treated as unknowns in the inversion process. Bayesian based methods produce an ensemble of models which can be analyzed to quantify uncertainties and trade-offs of the model parameters. In order to get better resolution, we will simultaneously invert three different types of seismic data: receiver functions, surface wave dispersion (SWD), and ZH ratios. Because the InSight mission will only deliver a single seismic station to Mars, and both the source location and the interior structure will be unknown, we will jointly invert the ray parameter in our approach. In preparation for this work, we first verify our approach by using a set of synthetic data. We find that SWD can constrain the absolute value of velocities while receiver functions constrain the discontinuities. By joint inversion, the velocity structure in the crust and upper mantle is well recovered. Then, we apply our approach to real data from an earth-based seismic station BFO located in Black Forest Observatory in Germany, as already used in a demonstration study for single station location methods. From the comparison of the results, our hierarchical treatment shows its advantage over the conventional method in which the noise level of observed data is fixed as a prior.

  17. The functional improvement and reduction of operators' work at LNG receiving terminal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomiyama, H.

    1997-01-01

    The Tokyo Gas Negishi Terminal has undergone a series of major changes since starting operation in 1966, including a change in the main feedstock from oil to LNG, and expansion of processing volume and scale. Control of the terminal has been in the form of centralized control and monitoring from a central control room. High technical levels have been maintained, this being one of the first terminals to adopt direct digital control (DDC) as the technology became available. In 1995, a distributed control system (DCS) was introduced as part of a large-scale redevelopment project at the Negishi Terminal, extending the scope of operations and monitoring by operators by full automation of controls, and improvement of functions including integration and upgrading of monitoring. The result has been a significant reduction in the workload on operators. The installation of these functions required further investment of around 1 billion yen, in addition to the cost of renewal of the facility. In spite of the major expansion of the range of facilities under control, the number of operators working 24-hours shifts has been reduced, and over 15 years cost reductions equivalent to around twice the investment cost are expected to be made. (au)

  18. Bibliographic study of doses received by operators with non-protected organs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aubert, B.; Rehel, J.L.

    2009-01-01

    Based on a literature survey, the authors present and discuss the various levels of doses received by different organs during interventional radiology. These doses depend on the procedures (close or remote), on the part of the body, on the protocols, and on the apparatus. They raise the issue of the use of a single dosimeter (born under protection as it is already required in France) or two dosimeters (a second one on a non protected area as it is the case in some other countries)

  19. Synchronization techniques for all digital 16-ary QAM receivers operating over land mobile satellite links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fines, P.; Aghvami, A. H.

    1990-01-01

    The performance of a low bit rate (64 Kb/s) all digital 16-ary Differentially Encoded Quadrature Amplitude Modulation (16-DEQAM) demodulator operating over a mobile satellite channel, is considered. The synchronization and detection techniques employed to overcome the Rician channel impairments, are described. The acquisition and steady state performance of this modem, are evaluated by computer simulation over AWGN and RICIAN channels. The results verify the suitability of the 16-DEQAM transmission over slowly faded and/or mildly faded channels.

  20. Study on characteristics of eddy current array coil operated in transmit-receive mode and surface inspection using this probe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Tae Hun; Jee, Dong Hyun; Cho, Chan Hee; Kim, In Chul [KHNP Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-02-15

    Eddy current array (ECA) technology provides the ability to electronically scan without mechanical scanning for a footprint of probe that consists of several eddy current coils arranged side-by-side and two dimensionally. Compared to single-coil eddy current technology, the ECA technology has a higher inspection speed and reliability because a large area can be covered in a single-probe pass and the obtained images can facilitate data interpretation. In this study, we developed an eddy current array probe with 2×16 coil arrays and a multiplexer that can select transmit-receive coils sequentially and operate in transmit-receive mode. Surface inspection was performed using this probe for specimens that had various flaws and the characteristics of transmit-receive mode ECA technology was studied through an analysis of the obtained eddy current signals and C-scan images.

  1. Detection modules for FSO receiver operating in the wavelength range of 8-12 μm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawron, Waldemar; Kalinowski, Przemysław; Fimiarz, Maciej; Mikołajczyk, Janusz; Wojtas, Jacek

    2017-10-01

    In this paper some constructions and test results of new detection modules for Free Space Optics (FSO) operated in the 8-12μm wavelength range are presented. In this spectrum, FSO communication is less sensitive to atmosphere features. The main requirements for detectors construction applied in FSO receiver correspond to both operational and functional parameters. These devices should be characterized by high detectivity and operation speed. It is necessary to achieve low value of error rate in the case of high attenuation of laser beam and small-aperture receiving optics. In this way, the design of the FSO transceiver is simplified. In practice, detection performance close to fundamental limits are required. Additionally, for the present optical links, subnanosecond response time is also very important. This can be achieved using of HgCdTe photodiode in the form of modified N+pP+ heterostructure with immersion lens, reverse biasing and TEC cooling. Immersion lens enables optimization of the detector physical dimensions, decreasing detector capacity and time constant detector. The high detectivity of the detection module was achieved by both matching the photodiode to the preamp and minimizing noises. The paper is review of designing and investigation process of the detection modules for FSO application. Some results of the performed simulations and experiments are also discussed. Finally, further refinements will be conducted taking into account parameters of FSO receiver.

  2. A method for scintillation characterization using geodetic receivers operating at 1 Hz

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juan, J. M.; Aragon-Angel, A.; Sanz, J.; González-Casado, G.; Rovira-Garcia, A.

    2017-11-01

    Ionospheric scintillation produces strong disruptive effects on global navigation satellite system (GNSS) signals, ranging from degrading performances to rendering these signals useless for accurate navigation. The current paper presents a novel approach to detect scintillation on the GNSS signals based on its effect on the ionospheric-free combination of carrier phases, i.e. the standard combination of measurements used in precise point positioning (PPP). The method is implemented using actual data, thereby having both its feasibility and its usefulness assessed at the same time. The results identify the main effects of scintillation, which consist of an increased level of noise in the ionospheric-free combination of measurements and the introduction of cycle-slips into the signals. Also discussed is how mis-detected cycle-slips contaminate the rate of change of the total electron content index (ROTI) values, which is especially important for low-latitude receivers. By considering the effect of single jumps in the individual frequencies, the proposed method is able to isolate, over the combined signal, the frequency experiencing the cycle-slip. Moreover, because of the use of the ionospheric-free combination, the method captures the diffractive nature of the scintillation phenomena that, in the end, is the relevant effect on PPP. Finally, a new scintillation index is introduced that is associated with the degradation of the performance in navigation.

  3. An Application of ANN Model with Bayesian Regularization Learning Algorithm for Computing the Operating Frequency of C-Shaped Patch Antennas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Kayabasi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an application of artificial neural network (ANN using bayesian regularization (BR learning algorithm based on multilayer perceptron (MLP model is presented for computing the operating frequency of C-shaped patch antennas (CPAs in UHF band. Firstly, the operating frequencies of 144 CPAs having varied dimensions and electrical parameters were simulated by the XFDTD software package based on the finite-difference time domain (FDTD method in order to generate the data set for the training and testing processes of the ANN-BR model. Then ANN-BR model was built with data set and while 129 simulated CPAs and remaining 15 simulated CPAs were employed for ANN-BR model training and testing respectively. In order to demonstrate its validity and accuracy, the proposed ANN-BR model was also tested over the simulation data given in the literature. The obtained results show that ANN-BR technique can be successfully used to compute the operating frequency of CPAs without involving any sophisticated methods.

  4. Approximate Bayesian recursive estimation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kárný, Miroslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 285, č. 1 (2014), s. 100-111 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Approximate parameter estimation * Bayesian recursive estimation * Kullback–Leibler divergence * Forgetting Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.038, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/AS/karny-0425539.pdf

  5. Final environmental statement related to the operation of the Barnwell Fuel Receiving and Storage Station (Docket No. 70-1729)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1976-01-01

    The proposed action is to issue a materials license, pursuant to 10 CFR Parts 30, 40 and 70 of the Commission's regulations, authorizing Allied-General Nuclear Services to receive and handle fuel casks containing spent reactor fuel elements and to store spent reactor fuel at the Barnwell Nuclear Fuel Plant (BNFP), in the Barnwell Fuel Receiving and Storage Station (BFRSS). The BFRSS is a part of, and contiguous to, the BNFP-Separations Facility which is being constructed on a small portion of a 1700 acre site about six miles west of the city of Barnwell in Barnwell County, South Carolina. Construction of the BFRSS facility has been completed and the BNFP Separations Facility is more than 90% complete. A uranium Hexafluoride Facility is being constructed on the same site, and a Plutonium Product Facility is proposed to be constructed adjacent to the Separations Facility. The license that is the subject of this action will, if issued, allow lthe use of the BFRSS separate4 from the operation of the Separations Facility. Impacts resulting from the construction of the BFRSS have already occurred and mitigating measures have been and are being implemented to offset any adverse impacts. Operation of the BFRSS will not interfere with water sources, and should cause no noticeable damage to the terrestrial or aquatic environments. Operating experience at other fuel receiving and storage facilities has shown that radioactive concentrations discharged to the environs (the more significant process effluents) have been well below applicabhle state and federal limits. The small quantities to be released during operation of the BFRSS will result in negligible environmental impact. 20 figs

  6. Análisis de las curvas receiver-operating characteristic: un método útil para evaluar procederes diagnósticos Analysis of receiver -operating characteristic curves: A useful method for assessing diagnostic procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma Domínguez Alonso

    2002-08-01

    Full Text Available Se sabe que los procederes diagnósticos son parte esencial y crítica en la toma de decisiones clínicas, de ahí la importancia de evaluar su precisión diagnóstica. El análisis de las curvas Receiver-Operating Characteristic aporta, de manera sencilla, un magnífico indicador de la precisión de una prueba diagnóstica. En este trabajo se consideraron aspectos, fundamentalmente prácticos, relativos a la metodología Receiver-Operating Characteristic como: utilidad, modo de interpretar los resultados y ventajas en relación con otros métodos. Se concluyó que el conocimiento sobre esta metodología resulta de gran utilidad para todo profesional de la salud encargado de desarrollar, validar, indicar e interpretar resultados de pruebas diagnósticas.AS the diagnostic procedures are an essential and critical part at the time of making clinical decisions, it is very important to evaluate their diagnostic accuracy. The analysis of the Receiver-Operating Characteristic curves offers in a simple way an excellent indicator of precision of a diagnostic test. In this paper, mainly practical aspects connected with ROC methodology, such as usefulness, way of interpreting the results and advantages in relation to other methods, are considered. It is concluded that the knowledge on this methodology is very useful for every health professional in charge of developing, validating, indicating and interpreting the results of the diagnostic tests.

  7. Characterization of dual-electrode CMUTs: demonstration of improved receive performance and pulse echo operation with dynamic membrane shaping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guldiken, Rasim O; Balantekin, Mujdat; Zahorian, Jaime; Degertekin, F Levent

    2008-10-01

    A 1-D dual-electrode CMUT array for intracardiac echocardiography (ICE) with a center frequency of 8 MHz has been designed, fabricated, and used to demonstrate the potential of dual-electrode CMUTs. Using a dual-electrode CMUT, 9 dB higher receive signal level is obtained over the 6 dB fractional bandwidth as compared with a conventional CMUT with an identical center electrode biased close to its collapse voltage. Because the same device shows a 7.4 dB increase in maximum pressure output, 16.4 dB overall improvement in transduction performance has been achieved as compared with conventional CMUT. A net peak output pressure of 1.6 MPa on the dual-electrode CMUT membrane with tone burst excitation at 12 MHz is also reported. The frequency response of the dual-electrode CMUT is similar to that of a conventional CMUT with the same membrane geometry with about 15% increase in the center frequency. Monostatic operation of dual-electrode CMUTs shows that the high performance of the transducer is applicable in typical pulse-echo imaging mode of operation. With dynamic shaping of the CMUT membrane to optimize the transmit-and-receive modes of operation separately during each pulse-echo cycle, dual-electrode CMUT is a highly competitive alternative to its piezoelectric counterparts.

  8. [The functional status in patients with discopathy of the lumbar spine receiving only conservative therapy or operative therapy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radziszewski, Krzysztof R

    2008-01-01

    Discopathy of lumbar spine inevitably leads to decreased quality of life in patients. Decrease of the backbone dysfunction at the degree which makes leading a life close to the normal style of family, social and professional life impossible, is the key therapeutic task. Evaluation of the functional disability can be the objective method of evaluation of the treatment efficacy. The purpose of this study was to analyze of the functional state in patients with lumbar discopathy receiving either conservative therapy only or surgical treatment. 665 patients aged between 16 and 76 years with discopathy at L4-L5, L5-S1 levels have been enrolled into the study. In analyzed group 348 patients received only a conservative therapy whereas 317 patients underwent an operative procedure. Analysis has been performed based on four rating scores for evaluation of the functional status: Low Back Pain Rating Scale, Functional-Economic Outcome Rating Scale of Prolo, Oswestry Low Back Pain Disability Questionnaire, Low-Back Outcome Score. In preliminary examination approx. 40% decrease in parameters of evaluation of the functional status has been found in the group of patients receiving conservative therapy. Functional status of the patients within more than 10-year period of treatment was sufficiently stable and tended to progression in distant study. Ability to perform daily life activities was the strongest determined by backbone and limb pains as well as by the level of neurological deficits. In preliminary examination approx. 45% decrease in parameters of evaluation of the functional status has been found in the group of operated patients. Functional status significantly improved within immediate period post surgery. 1. Functional status in patients with discopathy of the lumbar spine in basic degree is determined by neurological status and intensification of the pain afflictions. 2. The operative intervention brings essential improvement of the patients' functional status. 3

  9. Bayesian programming

    CERN Document Server

    Bessiere, Pierre; Ahuactzin, Juan Manuel; Mekhnacha, Kamel

    2013-01-01

    Probability as an Alternative to Boolean LogicWhile logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain DataEmphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean

  10. Interrelationships Between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, Binomial, Logit, and Bayes' Rule Probability of Detection Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Generazio, Edward R.

    2014-01-01

    Unknown risks are introduced into failure critical systems when probability of detection (POD) capabilities are accepted without a complete understanding of the statistical method applied and the interpretation of the statistical results. The presence of this risk in the nondestructive evaluation (NDE) community is revealed in common statements about POD. These statements are often interpreted in a variety of ways and therefore, the very existence of the statements identifies the need for a more comprehensive understanding of POD methodologies. Statistical methodologies have data requirements to be met, procedures to be followed, and requirements for validation or demonstration of adequacy of the POD estimates. Risks are further enhanced due to the wide range of statistical methodologies used for determining the POD capability. Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' rule POD methodologies are widely used in determining POD capability. This work focuses on Hit-Miss data to reveal the framework of the interrelationships between Receiver/Relative Operating Characteristics Display, simple binomial, logistic regression, and Bayes' Rule methodologies as they are applied to POD. Knowledge of these interrelationships leads to an intuitive and global understanding of the statistical data, procedural and validation requirements for establishing credible POD estimates.

  11. Safety analysis, 200 Area, Savannah River Plant: Separations area operations. Receiving Basin for Offsite Fuel (Supplement 3)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allen, P M

    1983-09-01

    Analysis of the Savannah River Plant RBOF and RRF included an evaluation of the reliability of process equipment and controls, administrative controls, and engineered safety features. The evaluation also identified potential scenarios and radiological consequences. Risks were calculated in terms of 50-year population dose commitment per year (man-rem/year) to the onsite and offsite population within an 80 Km radius of RBOF and RRF, and to an individual at the plant boundary. The total 50-year onsite and offsite population radiological risks of operating the RBOF and RRF were estimated to be 1.0 man-rem/year. These risks are significantly less than the population dose of 54,000 man/rem/yr for natural background radiation in a 50-mile radius. The 50-year maximum offsite individual risk from operating the facility was estimated to be 2.1 {times} 10{sup 5} rem/yr. These risks are significantly lower than 93 mrem/yr an individual is expected to receive from natural background radiation in this area. The analysis shows. that the RBOF and RRF can be operated without undue risk to onsite personnel or to the general public.

  12. Interim Bayesian Persuasion: First Steps

    OpenAIRE

    Perez, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    This paper makes a first attempt at building a theory of interim Bayesian persuasion. I work in a minimalist model where a low or high type sender seeks validation from a receiver who is willing to validate high types exclusively. After learning her type, the sender chooses a complete conditional information structure for the receiver from a possibly restricted feasible set. I suggest a solution to this game that takes into account the signaling potential of the sender's choice.

  13. Estimation of doses received by operators in the 1958 RB reactor accident using the MCNP5 computer code simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pešić Milan P.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A numerical simulation of the radiological consequences of the RB reactor reactivity excursion accident, which occurred on October 15, 1958, and an estimation of the total doses received by the operators were run by the MCNP5 computer code. The simulation was carried out under the same assumptions as those used in the 1960 IAEA-organized experimental simulation of the accident: total fission energy of 80 MJ released in the accident and the frozen positions of the operators. The time interval of exposure to high doses received by the operators has been estimated. Data on the RB1/1958 reactor core relevant to the accident are given. A short summary of the accident scenario has been updated. A 3-D model of the reactor room and the RB reactor tank, with all the details of the core, created. For dose determination, 3-D simplified, homogenised, sexless and faceless phantoms, placed inside the reactor room, have been developed. The code was run for a number of neutron histories which have given a dose rate uncertainty of less than 2%. For the determination of radiation spectra escaping the reactor core and radiation interaction in the tissue of the phantoms, the MCNP5 code was run (in the KCODE option and “mode n p e”, with a 55-group neutron spectra, 35-group gamma ray spectra and a 10-group electron spectra. The doses were determined by using the conversion of flux density (obtained by the F4 tally in the phantoms to doses using factors taken from ICRP-74 and from the deposited energy of neutrons and gamma rays (obtained by the F6 tally in the phantoms’ tissue. A rough estimation of the time moment when the odour of ozone was sensed by the operators is estimated for the first time and given in Appendix A.1. Calculated total absorbed and equivalent doses are compared to the previously reported ones and an attempt to understand and explain the reasons for the obtained differences has been made. A Root Cause Analysis of the accident was done and

  14. Receiver operating characteristic analysis and its potential role in evaluating the effect of head movement in PET of the brain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patterson, H.; Clarke, G.H.; Lombardo, P.; McKay, W.J.; Austin and Repatriation Medical Centre, Heidelberg, VIC

    1999-01-01

    Full text: We outline an example of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis in the assessment of image quality. ROC analysis is a measure of image quality that accounts for the consequences of the decision and the role of the observer. Kim and Haynie (Nuclear Diagnostic Imaging: Practical Clinical Applications. Melbourne: Macmillan, 1987) describe ROC analysis as an 'objective approach to the evaluation of diagnostic decision making'. ROC analysis is an ideal technique for evaluating images of a Hoffman brain phantom obtained using positron emission tomography. Images have been acquired with the phantom in different positions. The position of the phantom and the time the phantom remained in each position was based on the measurements of head movement during simulated brain imaging (Patterson et al., Technologists Symposium, ANZSNM, 1998). This study was undertaken to explore the potential of ROC analysis in determining the effect of movement on the ability to detect lesions of various sizes

  15. A primer on receiver operating characteristic analysis and diagnostic efficiency statistics for pediatric psychology: we are ready to ROC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngstrom, Eric A

    2014-03-01

    To offer a practical demonstration of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses, diagnostic efficiency statistics, and their application to clinical decision making using a popular parent checklist to assess for potential mood disorder. Secondary analyses of data from 589 families seeking outpatient mental health services, completing the Child Behavior Checklist and semi-structured diagnostic interviews. Internalizing Problems raw scores discriminated mood disorders significantly better than did age- and gender-normed T scores, or an Affective Problems score. Internalizing scores 30 had a diagnostic likelihood ratio of 7.4. This study illustrates a series of steps in defining a clinical problem, operationalizing it, selecting a valid study design, and using ROC analyses to generate statistics that support clinical decisions. The ROC framework offers important advantages for clinical interpretation. Appendices include sample scripts using SPSS and R to check assumptions and conduct ROC analyses.

  16. A comparison of two diagnostic performance measures: signal-to-noise ratio versus partial area under receiver operating characteristic curve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taner, Mehmet Tolga; Sezen, Bulent; Atwat, Kamal

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims to compare two diagnostic performance measures, i.e. signal-to-noise ratio (S/N ratio) and partial area under receiver operating characteristic curves (pAUC). It proposes the use of S/N ratio rather than pAUC for establishing optimal cut-off point for diagnostic biomarkers. This paper discusses the properties, uses, advantages and shortcomings of the two performance measures, namely the partial area under receiver operating characteristic curve (pAUC) and Taguchi's signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio. The benefits of S/N ratio have been illustrated in a sample of four biomarkers, each having five cut-off points. The S/N ratio is compared to the pAUC index. The SAS software is employed to calculate pAUC and AUC. This paper shows that S/N ratio can be used as a measure of diagnostic accuracy. The cut-off point with the highest S/N ratio is the optimal cut-off point for the biomarker. The proposed method has the advantages of being easier, more practical and less costly than that of pAUC. This paper includes implications for the development of a more practical, equally powerful and less costly means of measuring clinical accuracy thereby reducing the costs and risks resulting from wrong selection of cut-off point can be decreased. This paper supports suggestions in the recent literature to replace pAUC with a new, more meaningful index.

  17. Experimental Design and Data Analysis in Receiver Operating Characteristic Studies: Lessons Learned from Reports in Radiology from 1997 to 20061

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiraishi, Junji; Pesce, Lorenzo L.; Metz, Charles E.; Doi, Kunio

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: To provide a broad perspective concerning the recent use of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis in medical imaging by reviewing ROC studies published in Radiology between 1997 and 2006 for experimental design, imaging modality, medical condition, and ROC paradigm. Materials and Methods: Two hundred ninety-five studies were obtained by conducting a literature search with PubMed with two criteria: publication in Radiology between 1997 and 2006 and occurrence of the phrase “receiver operating characteristic.” Studies returned by the query that were not diagnostic imaging procedure performance evaluations were excluded. Characteristics of the remaining studies were tabulated. Results: Two hundred thirty-three (79.0%) of the 295 studies reported findings based on observers' diagnostic judgments or objective measurements. Forty-three (14.6%) did not include human observers, with most of these reporting an evaluation of a computer-aided diagnosis system or functional data obtained with computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. The remaining 19 (6.4%) studies were classified as reviews or meta-analyses and were excluded from our subsequent analysis. Among the various imaging modalities, MR imaging (46.0%) and CT (25.7%) were investigated most frequently. Approximately 60% (144 of 233) of ROC studies with human observers published in Radiology included three or fewer observers. Conclusion: ROC analysis is widely used in radiologic research, confirming its fundamental role in assessing diagnostic performance. However, the ROC studies reported in Radiology were not always adequate to support clear and clinically relevant conclusions. © RSNA, 2009 Supplemental material: http://radiology.rsna.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1148/radiol.2533081632/-/DC1 PMID:19864510

  18. Introduction to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2017-01-01

    There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...

  19. Efficient generation of receiver operating characteristics for the evaluation of damage detection in practical structural health monitoring applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chang; Dobson, Jacob; Cawley, Peter

    2017-03-01

    Permanently installed guided wave monitoring systems are attractive for monitoring large structures. By frequently interrogating the test structure over a long period of time, such systems have the potential to detect defects much earlier than with conventional one-off inspection, and reduce the time and labour cost involved. However, for the systems to be accepted under real operational conditions, their damage detection performance needs to be evaluated in these practical settings. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) is an established performance metric for one-off inspections, but the generation of the ROC requires many test structures with realistic damage growth at different locations and different environmental conditions, and this is often impractical. In this paper, we propose an evaluation framework using experimental data collected over multiple environmental cycles on an undamaged structure with synthetic damage signatures added by superposition. Recent advances in computation power enable examples covering a wide range of practical scenarios to be generated, and for multiple cases of each scenario to be tested so that the statistics of the performance can be evaluated. The proposed methodology has been demonstrated using data collected from a laboratory pipe specimen over many temperature cycles, superposed with damage signatures predicted for a flat-bottom hole growing at different rates at various locations. Three damage detection schemes, conventional baseline subtraction, singular value decomposition (SVD) and independent component analysis (ICA), have been evaluated. It has been shown that in all cases, the component methods perform significantly better than the residual method, with ICA generally the better of the two. The results have been validated using experimental data monitoring a pipe in which a flat-bottom hole was drilled and enlarged over successive temperature cycles. The methodology can be used to evaluate the performance of an

  20. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2003-01-01

    As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.

  1. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2010-01-01

    Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

  2. Bayesian image reconstruction for improving detection performance of muon tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guobao; Schultz, Larry J; Qi, Jinyi

    2009-05-01

    Muon tomography is a novel technology that is being developed for detecting high-Z materials in vehicles or cargo containers. Maximum likelihood methods have been developed for reconstructing the scattering density image from muon measurements. However, the instability of maximum likelihood estimation often results in noisy images and low detectability of high-Z targets. In this paper, we propose using regularization to improve the image quality of muon tomography. We formulate the muon reconstruction problem in a Bayesian framework by introducing a prior distribution on scattering density images. An iterative shrinkage algorithm is derived to maximize the log posterior distribution. At each iteration, the algorithm obtains the maximum a posteriori update by shrinking an unregularized maximum likelihood update. Inverse quadratic shrinkage functions are derived for generalized Laplacian priors and inverse cubic shrinkage functions are derived for generalized Gaussian priors. Receiver operating characteristic studies using simulated data demonstrate that the Bayesian reconstruction can greatly improve the detection performance of muon tomography.

  3. Using Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve to Define the Cutoff Points of Voice Handicap Index Applied to Young Adult Male Smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tafiadis, Dionysios; Chronopoulos, Spyridon K; Kosma, Evangelia I; Voniati, Louiza; Raptis, Vasilis; Siafaka, Vasiliki; Ziavra, Nausica

    2017-07-11

    Voice performance is an inextricable key factor of everyday life. Obviously, the deterioration of voice quality can cause various problems to human communication and can therefore reduce the performance of social skills (relevant to voice). The deterioration could be originated from changes inside the system of the vocal tract and larynx. Various prognostic methods exist, and among them is the Voice Handicap Index (VHI). This tool includes self-reported questionnaires, used for determining the cutoff points of total score and of its three domains relevant to young male Greek smokers. The interpretation of the calculated cutoff points can serve as a strong indicator of imminent or future evaluation by a clinician. Consistent with previous calculation, the VHI can also act as a feedback for smokers' voice condition and as monitoring procedure toward smoking cessation. Specifically, the sample consisted of 130 male nondysphonic smokers (aged 18-33 years) who all participated in the VHI test procedure. The test results (through receiver operating characteristic analysis) concluded to a total cutoff point score of 19.50 (sensitivity: 0.838, 1-specificity: 0). Also, in terms of constructs, the Functional domain was equal to 7.50 (sensitivity: 0.676, 1-specificity: 0.032), the Physical domain was equal to 7.50 (sensitivity: 0.706, 1-specificity: 0.032), and the Emotional domain was equal to 6.50 (sensitivity: 0.809, 1-specificity: 0.048). Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Estimated cumulative radiation dose received by diagnostic imaging during staging and treatment of operable Ewing sarcoma 2005-2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnsen, Boel [Haukeland University Hospital, Centre for Nuclear Medicine and PET, Department of Radiology, P.O. Box 1400, Bergen (Norway); Fasmer, Kristine Eldevik [Haukeland University Hospital, Department of Oncology, Medical Physics Section, Bergen (Norway); Boye, Kjetil [Norwegian Radium Hospital, Oslo University Hospital, Department of Oncology, Oslo (Norway); Rosendahl, Karen; Aukland, Stein Magnus [Haukeland University Hospital, Department of Radiology, Paediatric Section, Bergen (Norway); University of Bergen, Department of Clinical Medicine, Bergen (Norway); Trovik, Clement [University of Bergen, Department of Clinical Medicine, Bergen (Norway); Haukeland University Hospital, Department of Surgery, Orthopaedic Section, Bergen (Norway); Biermann, Martin [Haukeland University Hospital, Centre for Nuclear Medicine and PET, Department of Radiology, P.O. Box 1400, Bergen (Norway); University of Bergen, Department of Clinical Medicine, Bergen (Norway)

    2017-01-15

    Patients with Ewing sarcoma are subject to various diagnostic procedures that incur exposure to ionising radiation. To estimate the radiation doses received from all radiologic and nuclear imaging episodes during diagnosis and treatment, and to determine whether {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography - computed tomography ({sup 18}F-FDG PET-CT) is a major contributor of radiation. Twenty Ewing sarcoma patients diagnosed in Norway in 2005-2012 met the inclusion criteria (age <30 years, operable disease, uncomplicated chemotherapy and surgery, no metastasis or residual disease within a year of diagnosis). Radiation doses from all imaging during the first year were calculated for each patient. The mean estimated cumulative radiation dose for all patients was 34 mSv (range: 6-70), radiography accounting for 3 mSv (range: 0.2-12), CT for 13 mSv (range: 2-28) and nuclear medicine for 18 mSv (range: 2-47). For the patients examined with PET-CT, the mean estimated cumulative effective dose was 38 mSv, of which PET-CT accounted for 14 mSv (37%). There was large variation in number and type of examinations performed and also in estimated cumulative radiation dose. The mean radiation dose for patients examined with PET-CT was 23% higher than for patients not examined with PET-CT. (orig.)

  5. Estimated cumulative radiation dose received by diagnostic imaging during staging and treatment of operable Ewing sarcoma 2005-2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnsen, Boel; Fasmer, Kristine Eldevik; Boye, Kjetil; Rosendahl, Karen; Aukland, Stein Magnus; Trovik, Clement; Biermann, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Patients with Ewing sarcoma are subject to various diagnostic procedures that incur exposure to ionising radiation. To estimate the radiation doses received from all radiologic and nuclear imaging episodes during diagnosis and treatment, and to determine whether 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography - computed tomography ( 18 F-FDG PET-CT) is a major contributor of radiation. Twenty Ewing sarcoma patients diagnosed in Norway in 2005-2012 met the inclusion criteria (age <30 years, operable disease, uncomplicated chemotherapy and surgery, no metastasis or residual disease within a year of diagnosis). Radiation doses from all imaging during the first year were calculated for each patient. The mean estimated cumulative radiation dose for all patients was 34 mSv (range: 6-70), radiography accounting for 3 mSv (range: 0.2-12), CT for 13 mSv (range: 2-28) and nuclear medicine for 18 mSv (range: 2-47). For the patients examined with PET-CT, the mean estimated cumulative effective dose was 38 mSv, of which PET-CT accounted for 14 mSv (37%). There was large variation in number and type of examinations performed and also in estimated cumulative radiation dose. The mean radiation dose for patients examined with PET-CT was 23% higher than for patients not examined with PET-CT. (orig.)

  6. Comparison of the clinical informativeness of photographs and digital imaging media with multiple-choice receiver operating characteristic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perednia, D A; Gaines, J A; Butruille, T W

    1995-03-01

    Electronic medical imaging is important for medical informatics, computerized learning, and especially for the growing field of telemedicine. The image resolution necessary for a clinical application can be determined by use of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) experiments. Completely profiling display systems is a tedious process, requiring multiple ROC experiments. We have developed a multiple-choice ROC analysis technique to compare the relative informativeness of digital image formats for a spectrum of cutaneous lesions simultaneously. The technique makes use of logical competitor sets (LCSs) of clinical conditions to redefine multiple-choice responses into the present/absent framework required for conventional ROC curve construction. The study divided 180 slides and digital images into three LCSs: pigmented lesions, flesh-colored papules, and papulosquamous conditions. Eight dermatologists diagnosed the lesions presented in two randomized viewing sessions. Accuracy profiles, independent of individual observer sensitivities, were derived from the responses. The informativeness of color slides and digital images was statistically similar, even when the conditions were stratified by difficulty of diagnosis. Results for nine specific skin conditions represented in the three LCSs were obtained simultaneously. Digital images appear to be as informative as slides for specific dermatologic diagnoses in the three LCSs tested. The use of LCSs allows stratification of results by diagnosis with greater efficiency than multiple repeated ROC experiments. Multiple-choice ROC analysis used in conjunction with logical competitor sets is the best currently available method for comparing imaging media for use in visual disciplines such as dermatology, radiology, pathology, and others.

  7. Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, CEA ratio, and treatment outcome of rectal cancer patients receiving pre-operative chemoradiation and surgery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Kai-Lin; Chang, Shih-Ching; Chu, Lee-Shing; Wang, Ling-Wei; Yang, Shung-Haur; Liang, Wen-Yih; Kuo, Ying-Ju; Lin, Jen-Kou; Lin, Tzu-Chen; Chen, Wei-Shone; Jiang, Jeng-Kae; Wang, Huann-Sheng

    2013-01-01

    To investigate serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) as a prognostic factor for rectal cancer patients receiving pre-operative chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Between 2000 and 2009, 138 patients with advanced rectal cancer receiving CRT before surgery at our hospital were retrospectively classified into 3 groups: pre-CRT CEA <6 ng/ml (group L; n = 87); pre-CRT CEA ≥ 6 ng/ml and post-CRT CEA <6 ng/ml (group H-L; n = 32); and both pre- and post-CRT CEA ≥ 6 ng/ml (group H-H; n = 19). CEA ratio (defined as post-CRT CEA divided by pre-CRT CEA), post-CRT CEA level and other factors were reviewed for prediction of pathologic complete response (pCR). Five-year disease-free survival (DFS) was better in groups L (69.0%) and H-L (74.5%) than in group H-H (44.9%) (p = 0.024). Pathologic complete response was observed in 19.5%, 21.9% and 5.3% of groups L, H-L and H-H respectively (p = 0.281). Multivariate analysis showed that ypN stage and pCR were independent prognostic factors for DFS and that post-CRT CEA level was independently predictive of pCR. As a whole, post-CRT CEA <2.61 ng/ml predicted pCR (sensitivity 76.0%; specificity 58.4%). For those with pre-CRT CEA ≥6 ng/ml, post-CRT CEA and CEA ratio both predicted pCR (sensitivity 87.5%, specificity 76.7%). In patients with pre-CRT serum CEA ≥6 ng/ml, those with “normalized” CEA levels after CRT may have similar DFS to those with “normal” (<6 ng/ml) pre-CRT values. Post-CRT CEA level is a predictor for pCR, especially in those with pre-CRT CEA ≥6 ng/ml

  8. Estimating screening-mammography receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves from stratified random samples of screening mammograms: a simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zur, Richard M; Pesce, Lorenzo L; Jiang, Yulei

    2015-05-01

    To evaluate stratified random sampling (SRS) of screening mammograms by (1) Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) assessment categories, and (2) the presence of breast cancer in mammograms, for estimation of screening-mammography receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in retrospective observer studies. We compared observer study case sets constructed by (1) random sampling (RS); (2) SRS with proportional allocation (SRS-P) with BI-RADS 1 and 2 noncancer cases accounting for 90.6% of all noncancer cases; (3) SRS with disproportional allocation (SRS-D) with BI-RADS 1 and 2 noncancer cases accounting for 10%-80%; and (4) SRS-D and multiple imputation (SRS-D + MI) with missing BI-RADS 1 and 2 noncancer cases imputed to recover the 90.6% proportion. Monte Carlo simulated case sets were drawn from a large case population modeled after published Digital Mammography Imaging Screening Trial data. We compared the bias, root-mean-square error, and coverage of 95% confidence intervals of area under the ROC curve (AUC) estimates from the sampling methods (200-2000 cases, of which 25% were cancer cases) versus from the large case population. AUC estimates were unbiased from RS, SRS-P, and SRS-D + MI, but biased from SRS-D. AUC estimates from SRS-P and SRS-D + MI had 10% smaller root-mean-square error than RS. Both SRS-P and SRS-D + MI can be used to obtain unbiased and 10% more efficient estimate of screening-mammography ROC curves. Copyright © 2015 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Critical thresholds of liver function parameters for ketosis prediction in dairy cows using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yuhang; Wang, Bo; Shu, Shi; Zhang, Hongyou; Xu, Chuang; Wu, Ling; Xia, Cheng

    2015-01-01

    Fatty liver syndrome and ketosis are important metabolic disorders in high-producing cows during early lactation with fatty liver usually preceding ketosis. To date, parameters for early prediction of the risk of ketosis have not been investigated in China. To determine the predictive value of some parameters on the risk of ketosis in China. In a descriptive study, 48 control and 32 ketotic Holstein Friesian cows were randomly selected from one farm with a serum β-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA) concentration of 1.20 mmol/L as cutoff point. The risk prediction thresholds for ketosis were determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. In line with a high BHBA concentration, blood glucose concentration was significantly lower in ketotic cows compared to control animals (2.77 ± 0.24 versus 3.34 ± 0.03 mmol/L; P = 0.02). Thresholds were more than 0.76 mmol/L for nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA, with 65% sensitivity and 92% specificity), more than 104 U/L for aspartate aminotransferase (AST, 74% and 85%, respectively), less than 140 U/L for cholinesterase (CHE, 75% and 59%, respectively), and more than 3.3 µmol/L for total bilirubin (TBIL, 58% and 83%, respectively). There were significant correlations between BHBA and glucose (R = -4.74), or CHE (R = -0.262), BHBA and NEFA (R = 0.520), or AST (R = 0.525), or TBIL (R = 0.278), or direct bilirubin (DBIL, R = 0.348). AST, CHE, TBIL and NEFA may be useful parameters for risk prediction of ketosis. This study might be of value in addressing novel directions for future research on the connection between ketosis and liver dysfunction.

  10. Bayesian learning theory applied to human cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Robert A; Kruschke, John K

    2011-01-01

    Probabilistic models based on Bayes' rule are an increasingly popular approach to understanding human cognition. Bayesian models allow immense representational latitude and complexity. Because they use normative Bayesian mathematics to process those representations, they define optimal performance on a given task. This article focuses on key mechanisms of Bayesian information processing, and provides numerous examples illustrating Bayesian approaches to the study of human cognition. We start by providing an overview of Bayesian modeling and Bayesian networks. We then describe three types of information processing operations-inference, parameter learning, and structure learning-in both Bayesian networks and human cognition. This is followed by a discussion of the important roles of prior knowledge and of active learning. We conclude by outlining some challenges for Bayesian models of human cognition that will need to be addressed by future research. WIREs Cogn Sci 2011 2 8-21 DOI: 10.1002/wcs.80 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Study on diagnosis criteria of fire-heat syndrome based on receiver operating characteristic curve and principal component analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Si-jun; Huang, Zhao-sheng; Wu, Qing-guang; Huang, Zhang-jie; Wu, Li-rong; Yan, Wen-li; Wang, Qi; Wang, Zong-wei; Chang, David Lungpao; Yang, Zheng

    2016-04-01

    To establish the diagnostic quantitative criteria for fire-heat syndrome (FHS) of Chinese medicine (CM) based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and principal component analysis (PCA). The symptoms and signs of FHS cases and healthy subjects from Guangzhou, Henan and Hunan of China were collected through questionnaire, and the diagnostic quantitative score tables were established for the three regions, respectively, with the method of maximum likelihood analysis. The homogeneity test was then performed on the diagnostic score tables for the three regions with ROC curve, and the diagnostic efficiency of diagnostic score tables for the three regions was compared with the prospective test and retrospective test. The method of PCA was adopted to obtain the analysis matrix for classifying the tapes of FHS. Twenty-seven elements of FHS were confirmed through Chi-square test, and the diagnostic score tables for the three regions were established with the method of maximum likelihood analysis on the basis of the collected case data. According to the ROC curve test, the areas under ROC curve of Guangzhou diagnostic score table assessment with candidates in Guangzhou, Henan and Hunan were 0.998, 0.961 and 0.956, respectively. It showed that the diagnostic efficiency of Guangzhou diagnostic score tables was the highest one. With the prospective test, the area under ROC of Guangzhou diagnostic score table was 0.949, and more than any other diagnostic score table. By PCA, FHS was classified into excess fire and deficiency fire, and then classified into syndrome of flaring up of Heart (Xin) fire, syndrome of Lung (Fei)-Stomach (Wei) excess fire, syndrome of deficiency of Liver (Gan)-yin and Kidney (Shen)-yin, and syndrome of deficiency of Lung-yin from the view of viscera. In the retrospective test, the consistency with clinicians' diagnosis was 69.4%, and in the prospective test, it was 70.1%. The Guangzhou diagnostic score table could be used as the

  12. Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores

  13. Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 369, č. 1 (2016), s. 532-547 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Ideal distribution * Minimum cross- entropy principle * Bayesian conditioning * Kullback-Leibler divergence * Bayesian nonparametric modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.832, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/karny-0463052.pdf

  14. Polytomies and Bayesian phylogenetic inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Paul O; Holder, Mark T; Holsinger, Kent E

    2005-04-01

    Bayesian phylogenetic analyses are now very popular in systematics and molecular evolution because they allow the use of much more realistic models than currently possible with maximum likelihood methods. There are, however, a growing number of examples in which large Bayesian posterior clade probabilities are associated with very short branch lengths and low values for non-Bayesian measures of support such as nonparametric bootstrapping. For the four-taxon case when the true tree is the star phylogeny, Bayesian analyses become increasingly unpredictable in their preference for one of the three possible resolved tree topologies as data set size increases. This leads to the prediction that hard (or near-hard) polytomies in nature will cause unpredictable behavior in Bayesian analyses, with arbitrary resolutions of the polytomy receiving very high posterior probabilities in some cases. We present a simple solution to this problem involving a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that allows exploration of all of tree space, including unresolved tree topologies with one or more polytomies. The reversible-jump MCMC approach allows prior distributions to place some weight on less-resolved tree topologies, which eliminates misleadingly high posteriors associated with arbitrary resolutions of hard polytomies. Fortunately, assigning some prior probability to polytomous tree topologies does not appear to come with a significant cost in terms of the ability to assess the level of support for edges that do exist in the true tree. Methods are discussed for applying arbitrary prior distributions to tree topologies of varying resolution, and an empirical example showing evidence of polytomies is analyzed and discussed.

  15. Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2009-02-01

    Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly, it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism and thus avoids essentially the local-trap problem suffered by conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches in learning Bayesian networks. Secondly, it falls into the class of dynamic importance sampling algorithms; the network features can be inferred by dynamically weighted averaging the samples generated in the learning process, and the resulting estimates can have much lower variation than the single model-based estimates. The numerical results indicate that our approach can mix much faster over the space of Bayesian networks than the conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. [Meta analysis of the use of Bayesian networks in breast cancer diagnosis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simões, Priscyla Waleska; Silva, Geraldo Doneda da; Moretti, Gustavo Pasquali; Simon, Carla Sasso; Winnikow, Erik Paul; Nassar, Silvia Modesto; Medeiros, Lidia Rosi; Rosa, Maria Inês

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of Bayesian networks in supporting breast cancer diagnoses. Systematic review and meta-analysis were carried out, including articles and papers published between January 1990 and March 2013. We included prospective and retrospective cross-sectional studies of the accuracy of diagnoses of breast lesions (target conditions) made using Bayesian networks (index test). Four primary studies that included 1,223 breast lesions were analyzed, 89.52% (444/496) of the breast cancer cases and 6.33% (46/727) of the benign lesions were positive based on the Bayesian network analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) for the summary receiver operating characteristic curve (SROC) was 0.97, with a Q* value of 0.92. Using Bayesian networks to diagnose malignant lesions increased the pretest probability of a true positive from 40.03% to 90.05% and decreased the probability of a false negative to 6.44%. Therefore, our results demonstrated that Bayesian networks provide an accurate and non-invasive method to support breast cancer diagnosis.

  17. From Humans to Rats and Back Again: Bridging the Divide between Human and Animal Studies of Recognition Memory with Receiver Operating Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koen, Joshua D.; Yonelinas, Andrew P.

    2011-01-01

    Receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) have been used extensively to study the processes underlying human recognition memory, and this method has recently been applied in studies of rats. However, the extent to which the results from human and animal studies converge is neither entirely clear, nor is it known how the different methods used to…

  18. Receiver-operating characteristic curves and likelihood ratios: improvements over traditional methods for the evaluation and application of veterinary clinical pathology tests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gardner, Ian A.; Greiner, Matthias

    2006-01-01

    Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves provide a cutoff-independent method for the evaluation of continuous or ordinal tests used in clinical pathology laboratories. The area under the curve is a useful overall measure of test accuracy and can be used to compare different tests (or differ...

  19. Communication received from the Resident Representative of the Russian Federation to the IAEA on the establishment, structure and operation of the International Uranium Enrichment Centre

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The Director General has received a communication dated 7 June 2007 from the Resident Representative of the Russian Federation, with an attachment entitled 'Establishment, Structure and Operation of the International Uranium Enrichment Centre'. As requested in that communication, the letter and its attachment are circulated for the information of Member States

  20. 20 CFR 670.300 - What entities are eligible to receive funds to operate centers and provide training and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false What entities are eligible to receive funds... Employees' Benefits EMPLOYMENT AND TRAINING ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR THE JOB CORPS UNDER TITLE I OF THE WORKFORCE INVESTMENT ACT Funding and Selection of Service Providers § 670.300 What entities...

  1. Operational procedures for receiving, packaging, emplacing, and retrieving high-level and transuranic waste in a geologic repository in TUFF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennis, A.W.; Mulkin, R.

    1984-01-01

    The Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations Project, directed by the Nevada Operations Office of the Department of Energy, is currently developing conceptual designs for a commercial nuclear waste repository. In this paper, the preliminary repository operating plans are identified and the proposed repository waste inventory is discussed. The receipt rates for truck and rail car shipments of waste are determined as are the required repository waste emplacement rates

  2. Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2011-01-01

    A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic

  3. Bayesian statistics an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Peter M

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel

  4. Bayesian Test of Significance for Conditional Independence: The Multinomial Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo de Morais Andrade

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Conditional independence tests have received special attention lately in machine learning and computational intelligence related literature as an important indicator of the relationship among the variables used by their models. In the field of probabilistic graphical models, which includes Bayesian network models, conditional independence tests are especially important for the task of learning the probabilistic graphical model structure from data. In this paper, we propose the full Bayesian significance test for tests of conditional independence for discrete datasets. The full Bayesian significance test is a powerful Bayesian test for precise hypothesis, as an alternative to the frequentist’s significance tests (characterized by the calculation of the p-value.

  5. Characterization of Dual-Electrode CMUTs: Demonstration of Improved Receive Performance and Pulse Echo Operation with Dynamic Membrane Shaping

    OpenAIRE

    Guldiken, Rasim O.; Balantekin, Mujdat; Zahorian, Jaime; Degertekin, F. Levent

    2008-01-01

    A 1-D dual-electrode CMUT array for intracardiac echocardiography (ICE) with a center frequency of 8 MHz has been designed, fabricated, and used to demonstrate the potential of dual-electrode CMUTs. Using a dual-electrode CMUT, 9 dB higher receive signal level is obtained over the 6 dB fractional bandwidth as compared with a conventional CMUT with an identical center electrode biased close to its collapse voltage. Because the same device shows a 7.4 dB increase in maximum pressure output, 16....

  6. Bayesian Graphical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2016-01-01

    is largely due to the availability of efficient inference algorithms for answering probabilistic queries about the states of the variables in the network. Furthermore, to support the construction of Bayesian network models, learning algorithms are also available. We give an overview of the Bayesian network...

  7. The Bayesian Score Statistic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleibergen, F.R.; Kleijn, R.; Paap, R.

    2000-01-01

    We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative. Unlike

  8. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

  9. Predicting the Survival of Gastric Cancer Patients Using Artificial and Bayesian Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korhani Kangi, Azam; Bahrampour, Abbas

    2018-02-26

    Introduction and purpose: In recent years the use of neural networks without any premises for investigation of prognosis in analyzing survival data has increased. Artificial neural networks (ANN) use small processors with a continuous network to solve problems inspired by the human brain. Bayesian neural networks (BNN) constitute a neural-based approach to modeling and non-linearization of complex issues using special algorithms and statistical methods. Gastric cancer incidence is the first and third ranking for men and women in Iran, respectively. The aim of the present study was to assess the value of an artificial neural network and a Bayesian neural network for modeling and predicting of probability of gastric cancer patient death. Materials and Methods: In this study, we used information on 339 patients aged from 20 to 90 years old with positive gastric cancer, referred to Afzalipoor and Shahid Bahonar Hospitals in Kerman City from 2001 to 2015. The three layers perceptron neural network (ANN) and the Bayesian neural network (BNN) were used for predicting the probability of mortality using the available data. To investigate differences between the models, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were generated. Results: In this study, the sensitivity and specificity of the artificial neural network and Bayesian neural network models were 0.882, 0.903 and 0.954, 0.909, respectively. Prediction accuracy and the area under curve ROC for the two models were 0.891, 0.944 and 0.935, 0.961. The age at diagnosis of gastric cancer was most important for predicting survival, followed by tumor grade, morphology, gender, smoking history, opium consumption, receiving chemotherapy, presence of metastasis, tumor stage, receiving radiotherapy, and being resident in a village. Conclusion: The findings of the present study indicated that the Bayesian neural network is preferable to an artificial neural network for

  10. Sequential Bayesian technique: An alternative approach for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    MS received 8 October 2007; revised 15 July 2008. Abstract. This paper proposes a sequential Bayesian approach similar to Kalman filter for estimating reliability growth or decay of software. The main advantage of proposed method is that it shows the variation of the parameter over a time, as new failure data become ...

  11. Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

    2018-02-01

    This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

  12. Bayesian methods for data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Carlin, Bradley P.

    2009-01-01

    Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors

  13. Coupled optical/thermal/fluid analysis and design requirements for operation and testing of a supercritical CO2 solar receiver.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khivsara, Sagar [Indian Institute of Science, Bangalor (India)

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have evaluated closed-loop supercritical carbon dioxide (s-CO2) Brayton cycles to be a higher energy-density system in comparison to conventional superheated steam Rankine systems. At turbine inlet conditions of 923K and 25 MPa, high thermal efficiency (~50%) can be achieved. Achieving these high efficiencies will make concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies a competitive alternative to current power generation methods. To incorporate a s-CO2 Brayton power cycle in a solar power tower system, the development of a solar receiver capable of providing an outlet temperature of 923 K (at 25 MPa) is necessary. To satisfy the temperature requirements of a s-CO2 Brayton cycle with recuperation and recompression, it is required to heat s-CO2 by a temperature of ~200 K as it passes through the solar receiver. Our objective was to develop an optical-thermal-fluid model to design and evaluate a tubular receiver that will receive a heat input ~1 MWth from a heliostat field. We also undertook the documentation of design requirements for the development, testing and safe operation of a direct s-CO2 solar receiver. The main purpose of this document is to serve as a reference and guideline for design and testing requirements, as well as to address the technical challenges and provide initial parameters for the computational models that will be employed for the development of s-CO2 receivers.

  14. Books Received

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education. Books Received. Articles in Resonance – Journal of Science Education. Volume 1 Issue 1 January 1996 pp 118-118 Books Received. Books Received · More Details Fulltext PDF. Volume 1 Issue 2 February 1996 pp 120-120 Books Received. Books Received.

  15. Statistics: a Bayesian perspective

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berry, Donald A

    1996-01-01

    ...: it is the only introductory textbook based on Bayesian ideas, it combines concepts and methods, it presents statistics as a means of integrating data into the significant process, it develops ideas...

  16. Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani

    We propose a Bayesian inferential procedure for the noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and incorporating effects of missing variables. In particular, we devise a fast and reliable posterior simulator that yields the predictive distribution...

  17. Practical Bayesian tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granade, Christopher; Combes, Joshua; Cory, D. G.

    2016-03-01

    In recent years, Bayesian methods have been proposed as a solution to a wide range of issues in quantum state and process tomography. State-of-the-art Bayesian tomography solutions suffer from three problems: numerical intractability, a lack of informative prior distributions, and an inability to track time-dependent processes. Here, we address all three problems. First, we use modern statistical methods, as pioneered by Huszár and Houlsby (2012 Phys. Rev. A 85 052120) and by Ferrie (2014 New J. Phys. 16 093035), to make Bayesian tomography numerically tractable. Our approach allows for practical computation of Bayesian point and region estimators for quantum states and channels. Second, we propose the first priors on quantum states and channels that allow for including useful experimental insight. Finally, we develop a method that allows tracking of time-dependent states and estimates the drift and diffusion processes affecting a state. We provide source code and animated visual examples for our methods.

  18. Attention in a bayesian framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Whiteley, Louise Emma; Sahani, Maneesh

    2012-01-01

    , and include both selective phenomena, where attention is invoked by cues that point to particular stimuli, and integrative phenomena, where attention is invoked dynamically by endogenous processing. However, most previous Bayesian accounts of attention have focused on describing relatively simple experimental...... settings, where cues shape expectations about a small number of upcoming stimuli and thus convey "prior" information about clearly defined objects. While operationally consistent with the experiments it seeks to describe, this view of attention as prior seems to miss many essential elements of both its...

  19. Variational Bayesian Filtering

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šmídl, Václav; Quinn, A.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 56, č. 10 (2008), s. 5020-5030 ISSN 1053-587X R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Bayesian filtering * particle filtering * Variational Bayes Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 2.335, year: 2008 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/AS/smidl-variational bayesian filtering.pdf

  20. Bayesian Networks An Introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Koski, Timo

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include:.: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications.; A detailed description of learni

  1. Posterior Predictive Model Checking in Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Aaron

    2014-01-01

    This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…

  2. Computationally efficient Bayesian inference for inverse problems.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marzouk, Youssef M.; Najm, Habib N.; Rahn, Larry A.

    2007-10-01

    Bayesian statistics provides a foundation for inference from noisy and incomplete data, a natural mechanism for regularization in the form of prior information, and a quantitative assessment of uncertainty in the inferred results. Inverse problems - representing indirect estimation of model parameters, inputs, or structural components - can be fruitfully cast in this framework. Complex and computationally intensive forward models arising in physical applications, however, can render a Bayesian approach prohibitive. This difficulty is compounded by high-dimensional model spaces, as when the unknown is a spatiotemporal field. We present new algorithmic developments for Bayesian inference in this context, showing strong connections with the forward propagation of uncertainty. In particular, we introduce a stochastic spectral formulation that dramatically accelerates the Bayesian solution of inverse problems via rapid evaluation of a surrogate posterior. We also explore dimensionality reduction for the inference of spatiotemporal fields, using truncated spectral representations of Gaussian process priors. These new approaches are demonstrated on scalar transport problems arising in contaminant source inversion and in the inference of inhomogeneous material or transport properties. We also present a Bayesian framework for parameter estimation in stochastic models, where intrinsic stochasticity may be intermingled with observational noise. Evaluation of a likelihood function may not be analytically tractable in these cases, and thus several alternative Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) schemes, operating on the product space of the observations and the parameters, are introduced.

  3. Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

    2011-08-01

    The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls

  4. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corr......This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor......, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates...

  5. Bayesian Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berliner, M.

    2017-12-01

    Bayesian statistical decision theory offers a natural framework for decision-policy making in the presence of uncertainty. Key advantages of the approach include efficient incorporation of information and observations. However, in complicated settings it is very difficult, perhaps essentially impossible, to formalize the mathematical inputs needed in the approach. Nevertheless, using the approach as a template is useful for decision support; that is, organizing and communicating our analyses. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is valuable in quantifying and managing uncertainty such cases. I review some aspects of the idea emphasizing statistical model development and use in the context of sea-level rise.

  6. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates from a high dimensional set of psychological measurements. PMID:25431517

  7. [Comparative analysis of the professional activity in patients with discopathy of the lumbar spine receiving only conservative therapy or operative therapy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radziszewski, Krzysztof R

    2007-01-01

    Pain syndromes of the lower spine are considered as a serious economical problem throughout the world. They are one of the main reasons of limitation or total disability to work. Social expenses connected with treatment costs are accompanied by deterioration of the patient's financial situation and his family. Evaluation of the professional activity can be a valuable index of treatment efficiency evaluation. The purpose of this study was to comparably evaluate of the professional activity of the patients with lumbar discopathy receiving only conservative treatment as well as operated patients. 619 patients aged between 18 and 65 years with discopathy at L4-L5, L5-S 1 levels have been enrolled into the study. In analyzed group 327 patients received only a conservative therapy whereas 292 patients undergone an operative procedure. Evaluation of the degree of the disability to professional activity caused by the disease of the intervertebral disc of the lumbar backbone has been performed based on the following scales: Low-Back Outcome Score (L-BOS) and Functional-Economic Outcome Rating Scale (F-EORS). Ability to work of the patients receiving conservative therapy was approx. 3.1 (according to F-EORS) what can be defined as ,,work in older profession within limited range". Level of ability to work within subsequent evaluated periods did not tend to change significantly. Ability to hire the operated patients was approx. 2.8 what means "able to work but not in previous profession". In both analyzed groups the highest hiring level (approx. 63%) referred to young patients and it was significantly higher than in patient at the mid age (approx. 47%) and in older patients (approx. 33%). Disease of the intervertebral disc of the lumbar spine significantly reduced ability to professional work. Hiring ratio shows the strongest correlation with functional status, level of the payment satisfaction and level of the patients' depression. Ratio of return to the professional work is

  8. DPpackage: Bayesian Semi- and Nonparametric Modeling in R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Jara

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Data analysis sometimes requires the relaxation of parametric assumptions in order to gain modeling flexibility and robustness against mis-specification of the probability model. In the Bayesian context, this is accomplished by placing a prior distribution on a function space, such as the space of all probability distributions or the space of all regression functions. Unfortunately, posterior distributions ranging over function spaces are highly complex and hence sampling methods play a key role. This paper provides an introduction to a simple, yet comprehensive, set of programs for the implementation of some Bayesian nonparametric and semiparametric models in R, DPpackage. Currently, DPpackage includes models for marginal and conditional density estimation, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, interval-censored data, binary regression data, item response data, longitudinal and clustered data using generalized linear mixed models, and regression data using generalized additive models. The package also contains functions to compute pseudo-Bayes factors for model comparison and for eliciting the precision parameter of the Dirichlet process prior, and a general purpose Metropolis sampling algorithm. To maximize computational efficiency, the actual sampling for each model is carried out using compiled C, C++ or Fortran code.

  9. Microscale receiver operating characteristic analysis of micrometastasis recognition using activatable fluorescent probes indicates leukocyte imaging as a critical factor to enhance accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spring, Bryan Q.; Palanisami, Akilan; Hasan, Tayyaba

    2014-06-01

    Molecular-targeted probes are emerging with applications for optical biopsy of cancer. An underexplored potential clinical use of these probes is to monitor residual cancer micrometastases that escape cytoreductive surgery and chemotherapy. Here, we show that leukocytes, or white blood cells, residing in nontumor tissues-as well as those infiltrating micrometastatic lesions-uptake cancer cell-targeted, activatable immunoconjugates nonspecifically, which limits the accuracy and resolution of micrometastasis recognition using these probes. Receiver operating characteristic analysis of freshly excised tissues from a mouse model of peritoneal carcinomatosis suggests that dual-color imaging, adding an immunostain for leukocytes, offers promise for enabling accurate recognition of single cancer cells. Our results indicate that leukocyte identification improves micrometastasis recognition sensitivity and specificity from 92 to 93%-for multicellular metastases >20 to 30 μm in size-to 98 to 99.9% for resolving metastases as small as a single cell.

  10. Paired receiver operating characteristic curves and the effect of history on radiographic interpretation: CT of the head as a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNeil, B.J.; Hanley, J.A.; Funkenstein, H.H.; Wallman, J.

    1983-01-01

    The use of a statistical technique for paired comparisons using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves is illustrated by studying the extent to which clinical history altered the interpretation of computed tomographic (CT) examinations of the head. Eighty-nine CT examinations of the head were presented in random order to four readers, first with minimum history (age and sex) and then several weeks later with complete neutrological history as of the time the CT examination had been obtained. Using a paired ROC analysis, a small but significant (p < .05) improvement was detected for the interpretations in the presence of complete history; for readings without history the average area was 94.4% and for readings with history it was 97.7%

  11. Correlation of free-response and receiver-operating-characteristic area-under-the-curve estimates: Results from independently conducted FROC/ROC studies in mammography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zanca, Federica; Hillis, Stephen L.; Claus, Filip; Van Ongeval, Chantal; Celis, Valerie; Provoost, Veerle; Yoon, Hong-Jun; Bosmans, Hilde

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: From independently conducted free-response receiver operating characteristic (FROC) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) experiments, to study fixed-reader associations between three estimators: the area under the alternative FROC (AFROC) curve computed from FROC data, the area under the ROC curve computed from FROC highest rating data, and the area under the ROC curve computed from confidence-of-disease ratings. Methods: Two hundred mammograms, 100 of which were abnormal, were processed by two image-processing algorithms and interpreted by four radiologists under the FROC paradigm. From the FROC data, inferred-ROC data were derived, using the highest rating assumption. Eighteen months afterwards, the images were interpreted by the same radiologists under the conventional ROC paradigm; conventional-ROC data (in contrast to inferred-ROC data) were obtained. FROC and ROC (inferred, conventional) data were analyzed using the nonparametric area-under-the-curve (AUC), (AFROC and ROC curve, respectively). Pearson correlation was used to quantify the degree of association between the modality-specific AUC indices and standard errors were computed using the bootstrap-after-bootstrap method. The magnitude of the correlations was assessed by comparison with computed Obuchowski-Rockette fixed reader correlations. Results: Average Pearson correlations (with 95% confidence intervals in square brackets) were: Corr(FROC, inferred ROC) = 0.76[0.64, 0.84] > Corr(inferred ROC, conventional ROC) = 0.40[0.18, 0.58] > Corr (FROC, conventional ROC) = 0.32[0.16, 0.46]. Conclusions: Correlation between FROC and inferred-ROC data AUC estimates was high. Correlation between inferred- and conventional-ROC AUC was similar to the correlation between two modalities for a single reader using one estimation method, suggesting that the highest rating assumption might be questionable.

  12. Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

    CERN Document Server

    Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...

  13. Bayesian logistic regression analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an

  14. Bayesian statistical inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno De Finetti

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.

  15. Bayesian analysis of longitudinal Johne's disease diagnostic data without a gold standard test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, C.; Turnbull, B.W.; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2011-01-01

    A Bayesian methodology was developed based on a latent change-point model to evaluate the performance of milk ELISA and fecal culture tests for longitudinal Johne's disease diagnostic data. The situation of no perfect reference test was considered; that is, no “gold standard.” A change-point proc...... an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.984, and is superior to the raw ELISA (AUC = 0.911) and fecal culture (sensitivity = 0.358, specificity = 0.980) tests for Johne's disease diagnosis....

  16. The use of the AOA TTR-4P GPS receiver in operation at the BIPM for real-time restitution of GPS time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Claudine

    1994-01-01

    The Global Positioning System is an outstanding tool for the dissemination of time. Using mono-channel C/A-code GPS time receivers, the restitution of GPS time through the satellite constellation presents a peak-to-peak discrepancy of several tens of nanoseconds without SA but may be as high as several hundreds of nanoseconds with SA. As a consequence, civil users are more and more interested in implementing hardware and software methods for efficient restitution of GPS time, especially in the framework of the project of a real-time prediction of UTC (UTCp) which could be available in the form of time differences (UTCp - GPS time). Previous work, for improving the real-time restitution of GPS time with SA, to the level obtained without SA, focused on the implementation of a Kalman filter based on past data and updated at each new observation. An alternative solution relies upon the statistical features of the noise brought about by SA; it has already been shown that the SA noise is efficiently reduced by averaging data from numerous satellites observed simultaneously over a sufficiently long time. This method was successfully applied to data from a GPS time receiver, model AOA TTR-4P, connected to the cesium clock kept at the BIPM. This device, a multi-channel, dual frequency, P-code GPS time receiver, is one of the first TTR-4P units in operation in a civil laboratory. Preliminary comparative studies of this new equipment with conventional GPS time receivers are described in this paper. The results of an experimental restitution of GPS time, obtained in June 1993, are also detailed: 3 to 6 satellites were observed simultaneously with a sample interval of 15 s, an efficient smoothing of SA noise was realized by averaging data on all observed satellites over more than 1 hour. When the GPS system is complete in 1994, 8 satellites will be observable continuously from anywhere in the world and the same level of uncertainty will be obtained using a shorter averaging

  17. Bayesian optimization for materials science

    CERN Document Server

    Packwood, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science. Bayesian optimization is a promising global optimization technique that originates in the field of machine learning and is starting to gain attention in materials science. For the purpose of materials design, Bayesian optimization can be used to predict new materials with novel properties without extensive screening of candidate materials. For the purpose of computational materials science, Bayesian optimization can be incorporated into first-principles calculations to perform efficient, global structure optimizations. While re...

  18. A Bayesian nonparametric approach to causal inference on quantiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Dandan; Daniels, Michael J; Winterstein, Almut G

    2018-02-25

    We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach (BNP) for causal inference on quantiles in the presence of many confounders. In particular, we define relevant causal quantities and specify BNP models to avoid bias from restrictive parametric assumptions. We first use Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) to model the propensity score and then construct the distribution of potential outcomes given the propensity score using a Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) of normals model. We thoroughly evaluate the operating characteristics of our approach and compare it to Bayesian and frequentist competitors. We use our approach to answer an important clinical question involving acute kidney injury using electronic health records. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

  19. Non-linear Bayesian update of PCE coefficients

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2014-01-06

    Given: a physical system modeled by a PDE or ODE with uncertain coefficient q(?), a measurement operator Y (u(q), q), where u(q, ?) uncertain solution. Aim: to identify q(?). The mapping from parameters to observations is usually not invertible, hence this inverse identification problem is generally ill-posed. To identify q(!) we derived non-linear Bayesian update from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. To reduce cost of the Bayesian update we offer a unctional approximation, e.g. polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). New: We apply Bayesian update to the PCE coefficients of the random coefficient q(?) (not to the probability density function of q).

  20. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen Ringi, M.

    1995-05-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.

  1. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen Ringi, M.

    1995-01-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person's state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs

  2. Bayesian Independent Component Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winther, Ole; Petersen, Kaare Brandt

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...... in a Matlab toolbox, is demonstrated for non-negative decompositions and compared with non-negative matrix factorization.......In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...

  3. Bayesian coronal seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arregui, Iñigo

    2018-01-01

    In contrast to the situation in a laboratory, the study of the solar atmosphere has to be pursued without direct access to the physical conditions of interest. Information is therefore incomplete and uncertain and inference methods need to be employed to diagnose the physical conditions and processes. One of such methods, solar atmospheric seismology, makes use of observed and theoretically predicted properties of waves to infer plasma and magnetic field properties. A recent development in solar atmospheric seismology consists in the use of inversion and model comparison methods based on Bayesian analysis. In this paper, the philosophy and methodology of Bayesian analysis are first explained. Then, we provide an account of what has been achieved so far from the application of these techniques to solar atmospheric seismology and a prospect of possible future extensions.

  4. Bayesian community detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel N

    2012-09-01

    Many networks of scientific interest naturally decompose into clusters or communities with comparatively fewer external than internal links; however, current Bayesian models of network communities do not exert this intuitive notion of communities. We formulate a nonparametric Bayesian model for community detection consistent with an intuitive definition of communities and present a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for inferring the community structure. A Matlab toolbox with the proposed inference procedure is available for download. On synthetic and real networks, our model detects communities consistent with ground truth, and on real networks, it outperforms existing approaches in predicting missing links. This suggests that community structure is an important structural property of networks that should be explicitly modeled.

  5. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  6. Bayesian Hypothesis Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, Stephen A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sigeti, David E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-11-15

    These are a set of slides about Bayesian hypothesis testing, where many hypotheses are tested. The conclusions are the following: The value of the Bayes factor obtained when using the median of the posterior marginal is almost the minimum value of the Bayes factor. The value of τ2 which minimizes the Bayes factor is a reasonable choice for this parameter. This allows a likelihood ratio to be computed with is the least favorable to H0.

  7. Bayesian networks in reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langseth, Helge [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, N-7491 Trondheim (Norway)]. E-mail: helgel@math.ntnu.no; Portinale, Luigi [Department of Computer Science, University of Eastern Piedmont ' Amedeo Avogadro' , 15100 Alessandria (Italy)]. E-mail: portinal@di.unipmn.it

    2007-01-15

    Over the last decade, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become a popular tool for modelling many kinds of statistical problems. We have also seen a growing interest for using BNs in the reliability analysis community. In this paper we will discuss the properties of the modelling framework that make BNs particularly well suited for reliability applications, and point to ongoing research that is relevant for practitioners in reliability.

  8. Subjective Bayesian Beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.

    2015-01-01

    A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimental...... economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule....

  9. Bayesian estimation of Weibull distribution parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bacha, M.; Celeux, G.; Idee, E.; Lannoy, A.; Vasseur, D.

    1994-11-01

    In this paper, we expose SEM (Stochastic Expectation Maximization) and WLB-SIR (Weighted Likelihood Bootstrap - Sampling Importance Re-sampling) methods which are used to estimate Weibull distribution parameters when data are very censored. The second method is based on Bayesian inference and allow to take into account available prior informations on parameters. An application of this method, with real data provided by nuclear power plants operation feedback analysis has been realized. (authors). 8 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  10. Bayesian estimation of traffic lane state

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Nagy, Ivan; Kárný, Miroslav; Nedoma, Petr; Voráčová, Š.

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 1 (2003), s. 51-65 ISSN 0890-6327 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/03/0049; GA AV ČR IBS1075351 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : mixture models * estimation * Bayesian approach Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.602, year: 2003 http://library.utia.cas.cz/prace/20030021.ps

  11. Bayesian theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A

    2013-01-01

    The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...

  12. Voice Handicap Index and Interpretation of the Cutoff Points Using Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve as Screening for Young Adult Female Smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tafiadis, Dionysios; Kosma, Evangelia I; Chronopoulos, Spyridon K; Papadopoulos, Aggelos; Drosos, Konstantinos; Siafaka, Vassiliki; Toki, Eugenia I; Ziavra, Nausica

    2018-01-01

    The relationship between smoking and alterations of the vocal tract and larynx is well known. This pathology leads to the degradation of voice performance in daily living. Multiple assessment methods of vocal tract and larynx have been developed, and in recent years they were enriched with self-reported questionnaires such as Voice Handicap Index (VHI). This study determined the cutoff points of VHI's total score and its three domains for young female smokers in Greece. These estimated cutoff points could be used by voice specialists as an indicator for further clinical evaluation (foreseeing a potential risk of developing a vocal symptom because of smoking habits). A sample of 120 female nondysphonic smokers (aged 18-31) was recruited. Participants filled out the VHI and Voice Evaluation Form. VHI's cutoff point of total score was calculated at the value of 19.50 (sensitivity: 0.780, 1-specificity: 0.133). Specifically, the construct domain of functional was 7.50 (sensitivity: 0.900, 1-specificity: 0.217), for physical it was 8.50 (sensitivity: 0.867, 1-specificity: 0.483), and for emotional it was 7.50 (sensitivity: 0.833, 1-specificity: 0.200) through the use of receiver operating characteristic. Furthermore, VHI could be used as a monitoring tool for smokers and as a feedback for smoking cessation. Copyright © 2018 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of the Child Behavior Checklist and Teacher's Report Form for assessing autism spectrum disorder in preschool-aged children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bara, Tiago S; Farias, Antonio C; Felden, Erico Pg; Cordeiro, Mara L

    2018-01-01

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by social, behavioral, and communication impairments with an estimated prevalence of 1 in 68 school-aged children. There is a need for objective and easily applicable instruments for early identification of autistic children to enable initiation of early interventions during a very sensitive period of brain development and, consequently, optimize prognosis. Here, we tested the utility of the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) and the Caregiver-Teacher's Report Form (C-TRF) scales for assessing ASD in Brazil, where ASD screening research is emergent. A total of 70 children (2-5 years old, both sexes) were enrolled, including an ASD group (n=39) and a non-ASD control group (n=31). The preschool versions of the CBCL and C-TRF were applied. The CBCL and C-TRF results were compared between the ASD and non-ASD control groups with Mann-Whitney U tests and receiver operating characteristic analyses. The CBCL and C-TRF were found to have moderate accuracy for the dimensions withdrawn and autism spectrum problems, and to correlate with each other. The CBCL and C-TRF may aid in early ASD detection.

  14. Perspective Biological Markers for Autism Spectrum Disorders: Advantages of the Use of Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves in Evaluating Marker Sensitivity and Specificity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Provvidenza M. Abruzzo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD are a heterogeneous group of neurodevelopmental disorders. Recognized causes of ASD include genetic factors, metabolic diseases, toxic and environmental factors, and a combination of these. Available tests fail to recognize genetic abnormalities in about 70% of ASD children, where diagnosis is solely based on behavioral signs and symptoms, which are difficult to evaluate in very young children. Although it is advisable that specific psychotherapeutic and pedagogic interventions are initiated as early as possible, early diagnosis is hampered by the lack of nongenetic specific biological markers. In the past ten years, the scientific literature has reported dozens of neurophysiological and biochemical alterations in ASD children; however no real biomarker has emerged. Such literature is here reviewed in the light of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC analysis, a very valuable statistical tool, which evaluates the sensitivity and the specificity of biomarkers to be used in diagnostic decision making. We also apply ROC analysis to some of our previously published data and discuss the increased diagnostic value of combining more variables in one ROC curve analysis. We also discuss the use of biomarkers as a tool for advancing our understanding of nonsyndromic ASD.

  15. [Comparison of LCD and CRT monitors for detection of pulmonary nodules and interstitial lung diseases on digital chest radiographs by using receiver operating characteristic analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeda, Ryuji; Katsuragawa, Shigehiko; Shimonobou, Toshiaki; Hiai, Yasuhiro; Hashida, Masahiro; Awai, Kazuo; Yamashita, Yasuyuki; Doi, Kunio

    2006-05-20

    Soft copy reading of digital images has been practiced commonly in the PACS environment. In this study, we compared liquid-crystal display (LCD) and cathode-ray tube (CRT) monitors for detection of pulmonary nodules and interstitial lung diseases on digital chest radiographs by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Digital chest images with a 1000x1000 matrix size and a 8 bit grayscale were displayed on LCD/CRT monitor with 2M pixels in each observer test. Eight and ten radiologists participated in the observer tests for detection of nodules and interstitial diseases, respectively. In each observer test, radiologists marked their confidence levels for diagnosis of pulmonary nodules or interstitial diseases. The detection performance of radiologists was evaluated by ROC analyses. The average Az values (area under the ROC curve) in detecting pulmonary nodules with LCD and CRT monitors were 0.792 and 0.814, respectively. In addition, the average Az values in detecting interstitial diseases with LCD and CRT monitors were 0.951 and 0.953, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference between LCD and CRT for both detection of pulmonary nodules (P=0.522) and interstitial lung diseases (P=0.869). Therefore, we believe that the LCD monitor instead of the CRT monitor can be used for the diagnosis of pulmonary nodules and interstitial lung diseases in digital chest images.

  16. Reliability of overbite depth indicator (ODI) and anteroposterior dysplasia indicator (APDI) in the assessment of different vertical and sagittal dental malocclusions: a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatima, Farheen; Fida, Mubassar; Shaikh, Attiya

    2016-01-01

    Differential diagnosis of skeletal and dental relationships is crucial for planning orthodontic treatment. Overbite depth indicator (ODI) and anteroposterior dysplasia indicator (APDI) had been introduced in the past for assessment of vertical and sagittal jaw relationships, respectively. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the reliability of ODI and APDI in overbite and Angle malocclusions, as well as assess their diagnostic reliability among males and females of different age groups. This study was conducted using pretreatment dental casts and lateral cephalograms of 90 subjects. For ODI, subjects were divided into three groups based on overbite (normal overbite, open bite and deep bite). Likewise, the same subjects were divided for APDI into three groups, based on Angle's malocclusion classification (dental Class I, II and III malocclusions). Mann-Whitney U test was applied for comparison of study parameters regarding sex and different age groups. The mean values of ODI and APDI were compared among study groups by means of Kruskal-Wallis and post-hoc Dunnet T3 tests. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was applied to test diagnostic reliability. Insignificant differences were found for ODI and APDI angles, particularly in regards to sex and age. Significant intergroup differences were found in different overbite groups and Angle's classification for ODI and APDI, respectively (p overbite and deep bite versus open bite. APDI can reliably differentiate dental Class I, II and III malocclusions.

  17. The role of stenosis ratio as a predictor of surgical satisfaction in patients with lumbar spinal canal stenosis: a receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Hassanreza R; Azimi, Parisa; Benzel, Edward C; Shahzadi, Sohrab; Azhari, Shirzad

    2016-09-01

    The aim of this study was to elucidate independent factors that predict surgical satisfaction in lumbar spinal canal stenosis (LSCS) patients. Patients who underwent surgery were grouped based on the age, gender, duration of symptoms, walking distance, Neurogenic Claudication Outcome Score (NCOS) and the stenosis ratio (SR) described by Lurencin. We recorded on 2-year patient satisfaction using standardized measure. The optimal cut-off points in SR, NCOS and walking distance for predicting surgical satisfaction were estimated from sensitivity and specificity calculations and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. One hundred fifty consecutive patients (51 male, 99 female, mean age 62.4±10.9 years) were followed up for 34±13 months (range 24-49). One, two, three and four level stenosis was observed in 10.7%, 39.3%, 36.0 % and 14.0% of patients, respectively. Post-surgical satisfaction was 78.5% at the 2 years follow up. In ROC curve analysis, the asymptotic significance is less than 0.05 in SR and the optimal cut-off value of SR to predict worsening surgical satisfaction was measured as more than 0.52, with 85.4% sensitivity and 77.4% specificity (AUC 0.798, 95% CI 0.73-0.90; Ppatients with degenerative lumbar stenosis considered for surgical treatment. Using a ROC curve analysis, a radiological feature, the SR, demonstrated superiority in predicting patient satisfaction, compared to functional and clinical characteristics such as walking distance and NCOS.

  18. Disadvantages of using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to assess imaging tests: A discussion and proposal for an alternative approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halligan, Steve [University College London, Centre for Medical Imaging, University College Hospital, London (United Kingdom); Altman, Douglas G. [University of Oxford, Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Oxford (United Kingdom); Mallett, Susan [University of Oxford, Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, Oxford (United Kingdom)

    2015-04-01

    The objectives are to describe the disadvantages of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) to measure diagnostic test performance and to propose an alternative based on net benefit. We use a narrative review supplemented by data from a study of computer-assisted detection for CT colonography. We identified problems with ROC AUC. Confidence scoring by readers was highly non-normal, and score distribution was bimodal. Consequently, ROC curves were highly extrapolated with AUC mostly dependent on areas without patient data. AUC depended on the method used for curve fitting. ROC AUC does not account for prevalence or different misclassification costs arising from false-negative and false-positive diagnoses. Change in ROC AUC has little direct clinical meaning for clinicians. An alternative analysis based on net benefit is proposed, based on the change in sensitivity and specificity at clinically relevant thresholds. Net benefit incorporates estimates of prevalence and misclassification costs, and it is clinically interpretable since it reflects changes in correct and incorrect diagnoses when a new diagnostic test is introduced. ROC AUC is most useful in the early stages of test assessment whereas methods based on net benefit are more useful to assess radiological tests where the clinical context is known. Net benefit is more useful for assessing clinical impact. (orig.)

  19. Narrowband interference parameterization for sparse Bayesian recovery

    KAUST Repository

    Ali, Anum

    2015-09-11

    This paper addresses the problem of narrowband interference (NBI) in SC-FDMA systems by using tools from compressed sensing and stochastic geometry. The proposed NBI cancellation scheme exploits the frequency domain sparsity of the unknown signal and adopts a Bayesian sparse recovery procedure. This is done by keeping a few randomly chosen sub-carriers data free to sense the NBI signal at the receiver. As Bayesian recovery requires knowledge of some NBI parameters (i.e., mean, variance and sparsity rate), we use tools from stochastic geometry to obtain analytical expressions for the required parameters. Our simulation results validate the analysis and depict suitability of the proposed recovery method for NBI mitigation. © 2015 IEEE.

  20. Bayesian-based localization in inhomogeneous transmission media

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nadimi, E. S.; Blanes-Vidal, V.; Johansen, P. M.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel robust probabilistic approach based on the Bayesian inference using received-signal-strength (RSS) measurements with varying path-loss exponent. We derived the probability density function (pdf) of the distance between any two sensors in the network with heteroge......In this paper, we propose a novel robust probabilistic approach based on the Bayesian inference using received-signal-strength (RSS) measurements with varying path-loss exponent. We derived the probability density function (pdf) of the distance between any two sensors in the network...

  1. Open Source Bayesian Models. 1. Application to ADME/Tox and Drug Discovery Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    On the order of hundreds of absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and toxicity (ADME/Tox) models have been described in the literature in the past decade which are more often than not inaccessible to anyone but their authors. Public accessibility is also an issue with computational models for bioactivity, and the ability to share such models still remains a major challenge limiting drug discovery. We describe the creation of a reference implementation of a Bayesian model-building software module, which we have released as an open source component that is now included in the Chemistry Development Kit (CDK) project, as well as implemented in the CDD Vault and in several mobile apps. We use this implementation to build an array of Bayesian models for ADME/Tox, in vitro and in vivo bioactivity, and other physicochemical properties. We show that these models possess cross-validation receiver operator curve values comparable to those generated previously in prior publications using alternative tools. We have now described how the implementation of Bayesian models with FCFP6 descriptors generated in the CDD Vault enables the rapid production of robust machine learning models from public data or the user’s own datasets. The current study sets the stage for generating models in proprietary software (such as CDD) and exporting these models in a format that could be run in open source software using CDK components. This work also demonstrates that we can enable biocomputation across distributed private or public datasets to enhance drug discovery. PMID:25994950

  2. Bayesian analysis in plant pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mila, A L; Carriquiry, A L

    2004-09-01

    ABSTRACT Bayesian methods are currently much discussed and applied in several disciplines from molecular biology to engineering. Bayesian inference is the process of fitting a probability model to a set of data and summarizing the results via probability distributions on the parameters of the model and unobserved quantities such as predictions for new observations. In this paper, after a short introduction of Bayesian inference, we present the basic features of Bayesian methodology using examples from sequencing genomic fragments and analyzing microarray gene-expressing levels, reconstructing disease maps, and designing experiments.

  3. Bayesian Methods for Analyzing Structural Equation Models with Covariates, Interaction, and Quadratic Latent Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sik-Yum; Song, Xin-Yuan; Tang, Nian-Sheng

    2007-01-01

    The analysis of interaction among latent variables has received much attention. This article introduces a Bayesian approach to analyze a general structural equation model that accommodates the general nonlinear terms of latent variables and covariates. This approach produces a Bayesian estimate that has the same statistical optimal properties as a…

  4. Books Received

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Books Received. Challenge and Thrill of Pre-College. Mathematics. V Krishnamurthy et al. New Age International. 1996, Rs.220. Mathematics for Science. S M Uppal and H M Humphreys. New Age International. 1996, Rs.17S. Physics for Engineers. M R Srinivasan. New Age Publications. 1996. Statement about ownership ...

  5. Using Bayesian networks and rule-based trending to predict patient status in the intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crump, Cindy; Saxena, Sunil; Wilson, Bruce; Farrell, Patrick; Rafiq, Azhar; Silvers, Christine Tsien

    2009-11-14

    Multivariate Bayesian models trained with machine learning, in conjunction with rule-based time-series statistical techniques, are explored for the purpose of improving patient monitoring. Three vital sign data streams and known outcomes for 36 intensive care unit (ICU) patients were captured retrospectively and used to train a set of Bayesian net models and to construct time-series models. Models were validated on a reserved dataset from 16 additional patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated. Area under the curve (AUC) was 91% for predicting improving outcome. The model's AUC for predicting declining outcome increased from 70% to 85% when the model was indexed to personalized baselines for each patient. The rule-based trending and alerting system was accurate 100% of the time in alerting a subsequent decline in condition. These techniques promise to improve the monitoring of ICU patients with high-sensitivity alerts, fewer false alarms, and earlier intervention.

  6. Delineating a Retesting Zone Using Receiver Operating Characteristic Analysis on Serial QuantiFERON Tuberculosis Test Results in US Healthcare Workers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanassi, Wendy; Noda, Art; Newell, Jeffery; Terpeluk, Paul; Marder, David; Yesavage, Jerome A.

    2012-01-01

    Objective. To find a statistically significant separation point for the QuantiFERON Gold In-Tube (QFT) interferon gamma release assay that could define an optimal “retesting zone” for use in serially tested low-risk populations who have test “reversions” from initially positive to subsequently negative results. Method. Using receiver operating characteristic analysis (ROC) to analyze retrospective data collected from 3 major hospitals, we searched for predictors of reversion until statistically significant separation points were revealed. A confirmatory regression analysis was performed on an additional sample. Results. In 575 initially positive US healthcare workers (HCWs), 300 (52.2%) had reversions, while 275 (47.8%) had two sequential positive tests. The most statistically significant (Kappa = 0.48, chi-square = 131.0, P < 0.001) separation point identified by the ROC for predicting reversion was the tuberculosis antigen minus-nil (TBag-nil) value at 1.11 International Units per milliliter (IU/mL). The second separation point was found at TBag-nil at 0.72 IU/mL (Kappa = 0.16, chi-square = 8.2, P < 0.01). The model was validated by the regression analysis of 287 HCWs. Conclusion. Reversion likelihood increases as the TBag-nil approaches the manufacturer's cut-point of 0.35 IU/mL. The most statistically significant separation point between those who test repeatedly positive and those who revert is 1.11 IU/mL. Clinicians should retest low-risk individuals with initial QFT results < 1.11 IU/mL. PMID:23326660

  7. Delineating a Retesting Zone Using Receiver Operating Characteristic Analysis on Serial QuantiFERON Tuberculosis Test Results in US Healthcare Workers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy Thanassi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To find a statistically significant separation point for the QuantiFERON Gold In-Tube (QFT interferon gamma release assay that could define an optimal “retesting zone” for use in serially tested low-risk populations who have test “reversions” from initially positive to subsequently negative results. Method. Using receiver operating characteristic analysis (ROC to analyze retrospective data collected from 3 major hospitals, we searched for predictors of reversion until statistically significant separation points were revealed. A confirmatory regression analysis was performed on an additional sample. Results. In 575 initially positive US healthcare workers (HCWs, 300 (52.2% had reversions, while 275 (47.8% had two sequential positive tests. The most statistically significant (Kappa = 0.48, chi-square = 131.0, P<0.001 separation point identified by the ROC for predicting reversion was the tuberculosis antigen minus-nil (TBag-nil value at 1.11 International Units per milliliter (IU/mL. The second separation point was found at TBag-nil at 0.72 IU/mL (Kappa = 0.16, chi-square = 8.2, P<0.01. The model was validated by the regression analysis of 287 HCWs. Conclusion. Reversion likelihood increases as the TBag-nil approaches the manufacturer's cut-point of 0.35 IU/mL. The most statistically significant separation point between those who test repeatedly positive and those who revert is 1.11 IU/mL. Clinicians should retest low-risk individuals with initial QFT results < 1.11 IU/mL.

  8. Reliability of overbite depth indicator (ODI and anteroposterior dysplasia indicator (APDI in the assessment of different vertical and sagittal dental malocclusions: a receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farheen Fatima

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Introduction: Differential diagnosis of skeletal and dental relationships is crucial for planning orthodontic treatment. Overbite depth indicator (ODI and anteroposterior dysplasia indicator (APDI had been introduced in the past for assessment of vertical and sagittal jaw relationships, respectively. Objective: The objectives of this study were to evaluate the reliability of ODI and APDI in overbite and Angle malocclusions, as well as assess their diagnostic reliability among males and females of different age groups. Material and Methods: This study was conducted using pretreatment dental casts and lateral cephalograms of 90 subjects. For ODI, subjects were divided into three groups based on overbite (normal overbite, open bite and deep bite. Likewise, the same subjects were divided for APDI into three groups, based on Angle's malocclusion classification (dental Class I, II and III malocclusions. Mann-Whitney U test was applied for comparison of study parameters regarding sex and different age groups. The mean values of ODI and APDI were compared among study groups by means of Kruskal-Wallis and post-hoc Dunnet T3 tests. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve was applied to test diagnostic reliability. Results: Insignificant differences were found for ODI and APDI angles, particularly in regards to sex and age. Significant intergroup differences were found in different overbite groups and Angle's classification for ODI and APDI, respectively (p < 0.001. ROC showed 91% and 88% constancy with dental pattern in ODI and APDI, respectively. Conclusions: ODI can reliably differentiate deep bite versus normal overbite and deep bite versus open bite. APDI can reliably differentiate dental Class I, II and III malocclusions.

  9. Human chorionic gonadotropin cutoff value determined by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis is useful but not absolute for determining pregnancy outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maysa M. Khadra

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To assess the clinical value of a single early human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG assay (day 14 post embryo transfer in assisted reproductive technology (ART pregnancies. Design: Retrospective study. Settings: The Assisted Reproductive Unit at Jordan University Hospital, Amman, Jordan. Patients: During 2009–2011, a total of 248 embryo transfer cycles resulting in pregnancy, defined as serum HCG concentration of ⩾10 IU/l, were included. Interventions: None. Materials and methods: Pregnancies were classified as viable (live fetus at 24 weeks gestation or non-viable (biochemical pregnancy, miscarriage, ectopic pregnancy. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve analysis was used to evaluate the cutoff value of HCG with maximal sensitivity and specificity to differentiate between viable and non-viable pregnancies. Results: The median HCG concentration was 264 IU/l in viable pregnancies and 120 IU/l in non-viable pregnancies (p < 0.001. The median HCG concentration was 222 IU/l in singleton pregnancies, 389 IU/l in twin pregnancies and 809 IU/l in triplet pregnancies (p < 0.001. An HCG value of 145 IU/l emerged as the most suitable cutoff point to predict viable pregnancy. Conclusion: HCG cutoff values determined by a ROC curve analysis are useful but not absolute for discriminating between viable and non-viable pregnancy outcomes on day 14 after embryo transfer. So it is important to continue routine monitoring of ART pregnancy outcomes.

  10. Applied Bayesian modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Congdon, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and data analysis, with an emphasis on the interpretation of real data sets. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, this book aims to make a wide range of statistical modeling applications accessible using tested code that can be readily adapted to the reader's own applications. The second edition has been thoroughly reworked and updated to take account of advances in the field. A new set of worked examples is included. The novel aspect of the first edition was the coverage of statistical modeling using WinBU

  11. Bayesian nonparametric data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter; Jara, Alejandro; Hanson, Tim

    2015-01-01

    This book reviews nonparametric Bayesian methods and models that have proven useful in the context of data analysis. Rather than providing an encyclopedic review of probability models, the book’s structure follows a data analysis perspective. As such, the chapters are organized by traditional data analysis problems. In selecting specific nonparametric models, simpler and more traditional models are favored over specialized ones. The discussed methods are illustrated with a wealth of examples, including applications ranging from stylized examples to case studies from recent literature. The book also includes an extensive discussion of computational methods and details on their implementation. R code for many examples is included in on-line software pages.

  12. Software Health Management with Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengshoel, Ole; Schumann, JOhann

    2011-01-01

    Most modern aircraft as well as other complex machinery is equipped with diagnostics systems for its major subsystems. During operation, sensors provide important information about the subsystem (e.g., the engine) and that information is used to detect and diagnose faults. Most of these systems focus on the monitoring of a mechanical, hydraulic, or electromechanical subsystem of the vehicle or machinery. Only recently, health management systems that monitor software have been developed. In this paper, we will discuss our approach of using Bayesian networks for Software Health Management (SWHM). We will discuss SWHM requirements, which make advanced reasoning capabilities for the detection and diagnosis important. Then we will present our approach to using Bayesian networks for the construction of health models that dynamically monitor a software system and is capable of detecting and diagnosing faults.

  13. Classification using Bayesian neural nets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.C. Bioch (Cor); O. van der Meer; R. Potharst (Rob)

    1995-01-01

    textabstractRecently, Bayesian methods have been proposed for neural networks to solve regression and classification problems. These methods claim to overcome some difficulties encountered in the standard approach such as overfitting. However, an implementation of the full Bayesian approach to

  14. Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 1)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2018-01-01

    framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

  15. Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 2)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2018-01-01

    framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

  16. The Bayesian Covariance Lasso.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khondker, Zakaria S; Zhu, Hongtu; Chu, Haitao; Lin, Weili; Ibrahim, Joseph G

    2013-04-01

    Estimation of sparse covariance matrices and their inverse subject to positive definiteness constraints has drawn a lot of attention in recent years. The abundance of high-dimensional data, where the sample size ( n ) is less than the dimension ( d ), requires shrinkage estimation methods since the maximum likelihood estimator is not positive definite in this case. Furthermore, when n is larger than d but not sufficiently larger, shrinkage estimation is more stable than maximum likelihood as it reduces the condition number of the precision matrix. Frequentist methods have utilized penalized likelihood methods, whereas Bayesian approaches rely on matrix decompositions or Wishart priors for shrinkage. In this paper we propose a new method, called the Bayesian Covariance Lasso (BCLASSO), for the shrinkage estimation of a precision (covariance) matrix. We consider a class of priors for the precision matrix that leads to the popular frequentist penalties as special cases, develop a Bayes estimator for the precision matrix, and propose an efficient sampling scheme that does not precalculate boundaries for positive definiteness. The proposed method is permutation invariant and performs shrinkage and estimation simultaneously for non-full rank data. Simulations show that the proposed BCLASSO performs similarly as frequentist methods for non-full rank data.

  17. Approximate Bayesian computation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikael Sunnåker

    Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and approximations whose impact needs to be carefully assessed. Furthermore, the wider application domain of ABC exacerbates the challenges of parameter estimation and model selection. ABC has rapidly gained popularity over the last years and in particular for the analysis of complex problems arising in biological sciences (e.g., in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology, and systems biology.

  18. Bayesian inference with ecological applications

    CERN Document Server

    Link, William A

    2009-01-01

    This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...

  19. Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asad Ali

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an  overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.

  20. Books Received

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Digital libraries, Dynamic Storehouse of Digitised Information. N M Maiwad, T B Rajashekar, I K. Ravichandra Roo and N V. Satyanarayan. New Age International, 1996, Rs.475. Optimization Methods in Operations. Research and Systems Analysis. K V Mittal and C Mohan. 3rd Edn., New Age International. 1996. Rs.13S.

  1. I Received

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Optimization Methods in. Operations Research and. Systems Analysis, 3rd Edn. K V Mittal and C Mohan. New Age Intern<;1tional. 1996, Rs.135. The Arrow of Time. Peter Coveney and Roger. Highfield. Flamingo, an Imprint of Harper Col. 1991, Rs.252. Safety Evaluation of Environmental. Chemicals. T S S Dikshith.

  2. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of the Child Behavior Checklist and Teacher’s Report Form for assessing autism spectrum disorder in preschool-aged children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bara TS

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Tiago S Bara,1,2 Antonio C Farias,1–4 Erico PG Felden,5 Mara L Cordeiro1,2,6 1Neurosciences Core, Pelé Pequeno Príncipe Research Institute, 2Faculdades Pequeno Príncipe, 3Department of Neuropediatrics, Children’s Hospital, Pequeno Príncipe, 4School of Medicine, University Positivo, Curitiba, 5Centro de Ciências da Saúde e do Esporte (CEFID da Universidade do Estado de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, Brazil; 6Department of Psychiatry and Biobehavior Sciences, David Geffen School of Medicine, Semel Institute for Neusroscience and Human Behavior, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA Background: Autism spectrum disorder (ASD is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by social, behavioral, and communication impairments with an estimated prevalence of 1 in 68 school-aged children. There is a need for objective and easily applicable instruments for early identification of autistic children to enable initiation of early interventions during a very sensitive period of brain development and, consequently, optimize prognosis. Here, we tested the utility of the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL and the Caregiver-Teacher’s Report Form (C-TRF scales for assessing ASD in Brazil, where ASD screening research is emergent.Subjects and methods: A total of 70 children (2–5 years old, both sexes were enrolled, including an ASD group (n=39 and a non-ASD control group (n=31. The preschool versions of the CBCL and C-TRF were applied. The CBCL and C-TRF results were compared between the ASD and non-ASD control groups with Mann–Whitney U tests and receiver operating characteristic analyses.Results: The CBCL and C-TRF were found to have moderate accuracy for the dimensions withdrawn and autism spectrum problems, and to correlate with each other.Conclusion: The CBCL and C-TRF may aid in early ASD detection. Keywords: screening, instruments, AUC, early intervention

  3. Bayesian regression of piecewise homogeneous Poisson processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Sevilla

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a Bayesian method for piecewise regression is adapted to handle counting processes data distributed as Poisson. A numerical code in Mathematica is developed and tested analyzing simulated data. The resulting method is valuable for detecting breaking points in the count rate of time series for Poisson processes. Received: 2 November 2015, Accepted: 27 November 2015; Edited by: R. Dickman; Reviewed by: M. Hutter, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.070018 Cite as: D J R Sevilla, Papers in Physics 7, 070018 (2015

  4. Wideband CMOS receivers

    CERN Document Server

    Oliveira, Luis

    2015-01-01

    This book demonstrates how to design a wideband receiver operating in current mode, in which the noise and non-linearity are reduced, implemented in a low cost single chip, using standard CMOS technology.  The authors present a solution to remove the transimpedance amplifier (TIA) block and connect directly the mixer’s output to a passive second-order continuous-time Σ∆ analog to digital converter (ADC), which operates in current-mode. These techniques enable the reduction of area, power consumption, and cost in modern CMOS receivers.

  5. Bayesian nonparametric hierarchical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunson, David B

    2009-04-01

    In biomedical research, hierarchical models are very widely used to accommodate dependence in multivariate and longitudinal data and for borrowing of information across data from different sources. A primary concern in hierarchical modeling is sensitivity to parametric assumptions, such as linearity and normality of the random effects. Parametric assumptions on latent variable distributions can be challenging to check and are typically unwarranted, given available prior knowledge. This article reviews some recent developments in Bayesian nonparametric methods motivated by complex, multivariate and functional data collected in biomedical studies. The author provides a brief review of flexible parametric approaches relying on finite mixtures and latent class modeling. Dirichlet process mixture models are motivated by the need to generalize these approaches to avoid assuming a fixed finite number of classes. Focusing on an epidemiology application, the author illustrates the practical utility and potential of nonparametric Bayes methods.

  6. Bayesian grid matching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    2003-01-01

    A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which...... represents the spatial coordinates of the grid nodes. Knowledge of how grid nodes are depicted in the observed image is described through the observation model. The prior consists of a node prior and an arc (edge) prior, both modeled as Gaussian MRFs. The node prior models variations in the positions of grid...... nodes and the arc prior models variations in row and column spacing across the grid. Grid matching is done by placing an initial rough grid over the image and applying an ensemble annealing scheme to maximize the posterior distribution of the grid. The method can be applied to noisy images with missing...

  7. Bayesian supervised dimensionality reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gönen, Mehmet

    2013-12-01

    Dimensionality reduction is commonly used as a preprocessing step before training a supervised learner. However, coupled training of dimensionality reduction and supervised learning steps may improve the prediction performance. In this paper, we introduce a simple and novel Bayesian supervised dimensionality reduction method that combines linear dimensionality reduction and linear supervised learning in a principled way. We present both Gibbs sampling and variational approximation approaches to learn the proposed probabilistic model for multiclass classification. We also extend our formulation toward model selection using automatic relevance determination in order to find the intrinsic dimensionality. Classification experiments on three benchmark data sets show that the new model significantly outperforms seven baseline linear dimensionality reduction algorithms on very low dimensions in terms of generalization performance on test data. The proposed model also obtains the best results on an image recognition task in terms of classification and retrieval performances.

  8. Bayesian Geostatistical Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Diggle, Peter; Lophaven, Søren Nymand

    2006-01-01

    This paper describes the use of model-based geostatistics for choosing the set of sampling locations, collectively called the design, to be used in a geostatistical analysis. Two types of design situation are considered. These are retrospective design, which concerns the addition of sampling...... locations to, or deletion of locations from, an existing design, and prospective design, which consists of choosing positions for a new set of sampling locations. We propose a Bayesian design criterion which focuses on the goal of efficient spatial prediction whilst allowing for the fact that model...... parameter values are unknown. The results show that in this situation a wide range of interpoint distances should be included in the design, and the widely used regular design is often not the best choice....

  9. Bayesian adaptive methods for clinical trials

    CERN Document Server

    Berry, Scott M; Muller, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Already popular in the analysis of medical device trials, adaptive Bayesian designs are increasingly being used in drug development for a wide variety of diseases and conditions, from Alzheimer's disease and multiple sclerosis to obesity, diabetes, hepatitis C, and HIV. Written by leading pioneers of Bayesian clinical trial designs, Bayesian Adaptive Methods for Clinical Trials explores the growing role of Bayesian thinking in the rapidly changing world of clinical trial analysis. The book first summarizes the current state of clinical trial design and analysis and introduces the main ideas and potential benefits of a Bayesian alternative. It then gives an overview of basic Bayesian methodological and computational tools needed for Bayesian clinical trials. With a focus on Bayesian designs that achieve good power and Type I error, the next chapters present Bayesian tools useful in early (Phase I) and middle (Phase II) clinical trials as well as two recent Bayesian adaptive Phase II studies: the BATTLE and ISP...

  10. Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia

    2015-01-01

    Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on

  11. Connection between Bell nonlocality and Bayesian game theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunner, Nicolas; Linden, Noah

    2013-01-01

    In 1964, Bell discovered that quantum mechanics is a nonlocal theory. Three years later, in a seemingly unconnected development, Harsanyi introduced the concept of Bayesian games. Here we show that, in fact, there is a deep connection between Bell nonlocality and Bayesian games, and that the same concepts appear in both fields. This link offers interesting possibilities for Bayesian games, namely of allowing the players to receive advice in the form of nonlocal correlations, for instance using entangled quantum particles or more general no-signalling boxes. This will lead to novel joint strategies, impossible to achieve classically. We characterize games for which nonlocal resources offer a genuine advantage over classical ones. Moreover, some of these strategies represent equilibrium points, leading to the notion of quantum/no-signalling Nash equilibrium. Finally, we describe new types of question in the study of nonlocality, namely the consideration of nonlocal advantage given a set of Bell expressions.

  12. Bayesian tomographic reconstruction of microsystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salem, Sofia Fekih; Vabre, Alexandre; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali

    2007-01-01

    The microtomography by X ray transmission plays an increasingly dominating role in the study and the understanding of microsystems. Within this framework, an experimental setup of high resolution X ray microtomography was developed at CEA-List to quantify the physical parameters related to the fluids flow in microsystems. Several difficulties rise from the nature of experimental data collected on this setup: enhanced error measurements due to various physical phenomena occurring during the image formation (diffusion, beam hardening), and specificities of the setup (limited angle, partial view of the object, weak contrast).To reconstruct the object we must solve an inverse problem. This inverse problem is known to be ill-posed. It therefore needs to be regularized by introducing prior information. The main prior information we account for is that the object is composed of a finite known number of different materials distributed in compact regions. This a priori information is introduced via a Gauss-Markov field for the contrast distributions with a hidden Potts-Markov field for the class materials in the Bayesian estimation framework. The computations are done by using an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique.In this paper, we present first the basic steps of the proposed algorithms. Then we focus on one of the main steps in any iterative reconstruction method which is the computation of forward and adjoint operators (projection and backprojection). A fast implementation of these two operators is crucial for the real application of the method. We give some details on the fast computation of these steps and show some preliminary results of simulations

  13. Bayesian Inference: with ecological applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.

    2010-01-01

    This text provides a mathematically rigorous yet accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference with relevant examples that will be of interest to biologists working in the fields of ecology, wildlife management and environmental studies as well as students in advanced undergraduate statistics.. This text opens the door to Bayesian inference, taking advantage of modern computational efficiencies and easily accessible software to evaluate complex hierarchical models.

  14. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    OpenAIRE

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the re...

  15. The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of community-based support for adolescents receiving antiretroviral treatment: an operational research study in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatti, Geoffrey; Jackson, Debra; Goga, Ameena E; Shaikh, Najma; Eley, Brian; Nachega, Jean B; Grimwood, Ashraf

    2018-02-01

    Adolescents and youth receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa have high attrition and inadequate ART outcomes, and evaluations of interventions improving ART outcomes amongst adolescents are very limited. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3c is to substantially increase the health workforce in developing countries. We measured the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of community-based support (CBS) provided by lay health workers for adolescents and youth receiving ART in South Africa. A retrospective cohort study including adolescents and youth who initiated ART at 47 facilities. Previously unemployed CBS-workers provided home-based ART-related education, psychosocial support, symptom screening for opportunistic infections and support to access government grants. Outcomes were compared between participants who received CBS plus standard clinic-based care versus participants who received standard care only. Cumulative incidences of all-cause mortality and loss to follow-up (LTFU), adherence measured using medication possession ratios (MPRs), CD4 count slope, and virological suppression were analysed using multivariable Cox, competing-risks regression, generalized estimating equations and mixed-effects models over five years of ART. An expenditure approach was used to determine the incremental cost of CBS to usual care from a provider perspective. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated as annual cost per patient-loss (through death or LTFU) averted. Amongst 6706 participants included, 2100 (31.3%) received CBS. Participants who received CBS had reduced mortality, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.52 (95% CI: 0.37 to 0.73; p < 0.0001). Cumulative LTFU was 40% lower amongst participants receiving CBS (29.9%) compared to participants without CBS (38.9%), aHR = 0.60 (95% CI: 0.51 to 0.71); p < 0.0001). The effectiveness of CBS in reducing attrition ranged from 42.2% after one year to 35.9% after five years. Virological

  16. Bayesian approach in the power electric systems study of reliability ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This work aims to highlight prerogatives and advantages of the Bayesian approach in the reliability studies of the modern power electrical ... technological innovation make the data more uncertain related to the operation of the electric systems components, with the ...... Rocco S. C.M. & Klindt W., 1998. Distribution Systems ...

  17. Exploratory use of a Bayesian network process for translating ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Water resource management is complex, and should ideally be a co-operative, stakeholder-driven problem-solving process. Bayesian networks (BNs) are one participatory tool being increasingly used to facilitate this process. The upper Mgeni catchment in the province of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, is a key water ...

  18. Bayesian Evaluation of Lymphoscintigraphy of Secondary Upper Limb Lymphedema. Abstract

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Heřmanská, J.; Křížová, H.; Gebouský, Petr; Wald, M.; Kárný, Miroslav; Adámek, J.; Zimák, J.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 31, Suppl. 2 (2004), s. 454 ISSN 1619-7070. [Annual Congress of the EANM 2004. Helsinki, 04.09.2004-08.09.2004] R&D Projects: GA MZd NC7601 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : quantitative lymphoscintigraphy * lymphedema * Bayesian estimation Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 3.935, year: 2004

  19. Bayesian approach in the power electric systems study of reliability ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This work aims to highlight prerogatives and advantages of the Bayesian approach in the reliability studies of the modern power electrical systems. The new organization of the electric energy sector and the consistent degree of technological innovation make the data more uncertain related to the operation of the electric ...

  20. Bayesian nonparametric estimation of hazard rate in monotone Aalen model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Timková, Jana

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 6 (2014), s. 849-868 ISSN 0023-5954 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Aalen model * Bayesian estimation * MCMC Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.541, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/SI/timkova-0438210.pdf

  1. Optimal Bayesian Adaptive Design for Test-Item Calibration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.; Ren, Hao

    2015-01-01

    An optimal adaptive design for test-item calibration based on Bayesian optimality criteria is presented. The design adapts the choice of field-test items to the examinees taking an operational adaptive test using both the information in the posterior distributions of their ability parameters and the

  2. Bayesian seismic AVO inversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buland, Arild

    2002-07-01

    A new linearized AVO inversion technique is developed in a Bayesian framework. The objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity and density. Distributions for other elastic parameters can also be assessed, for example acoustic impedance, shear impedance and P-wave to S-wave velocity ratio. The inversion algorithm is based on the convolutional model and a linearized weak contrast approximation of the Zoeppritz equation. The solution is represented by a Gaussian posterior distribution with explicit expressions for the posterior expectation and covariance, hence exact prediction intervals for the inverted parameters can be computed under the specified model. The explicit analytical form of the posterior distribution provides a computationally fast inversion method. Tests on synthetic data show that all inverted parameters were almost perfectly retrieved when the noise approached zero. With realistic noise levels, acoustic impedance was the best determined parameter, while the inversion provided practically no information about the density. The inversion algorithm has also been tested on a real 3-D dataset from the Sleipner Field. The results show good agreement with well logs but the uncertainty is high. The stochastic model includes uncertainties of both the elastic parameters, the wavelet and the seismic and well log data. The posterior distribution is explored by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. The inversion algorithm has been tested on a seismic line from the Heidrun Field with two wells located on the line. The uncertainty of the estimated wavelet is low. In the Heidrun examples the effect of including uncertainty of the wavelet and the noise level was marginal with respect to the AVO inversion results. We have developed a 3-D linearized AVO inversion method with spatially coupled model parameters where the objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S

  3. Bayesian microsaccade detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihali, Andra; van Opheusden, Bas; Ma, Wei Ji

    2017-01-01

    Microsaccades are high-velocity fixational eye movements, with special roles in perception and cognition. The default microsaccade detection method is to determine when the smoothed eye velocity exceeds a threshold. We have developed a new method, Bayesian microsaccade detection (BMD), which performs inference based on a simple statistical model of eye positions. In this model, a hidden state variable changes between drift and microsaccade states at random times. The eye position is a biased random walk with different velocity distributions for each state. BMD generates samples from the posterior probability distribution over the eye state time series given the eye position time series. Applied to simulated data, BMD recovers the “true” microsaccades with fewer errors than alternative algorithms, especially at high noise. Applied to EyeLink eye tracker data, BMD detects almost all the microsaccades detected by the default method, but also apparent microsaccades embedded in high noise—although these can also be interpreted as false positives. Next we apply the algorithms to data collected with a Dual Purkinje Image eye tracker, whose higher precision justifies defining the inferred microsaccades as ground truth. When we add artificial measurement noise, the inferences of all algorithms degrade; however, at noise levels comparable to EyeLink data, BMD recovers the “true” microsaccades with 54% fewer errors than the default algorithm. Though unsuitable for online detection, BMD has other advantages: It returns probabilities rather than binary judgments, and it can be straightforwardly adapted as the generative model is refined. We make our algorithm available as a software package. PMID:28114483

  4. Kernel Bayesian ART and ARTMAP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuyama, Naoki; Loo, Chu Kiong; Dawood, Farhan

    2018-02-01

    Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) is one of the successful approaches to resolving "the plasticity-stability dilemma" in neural networks, and its supervised learning model called ARTMAP is a powerful tool for classification. Among several improvements, such as Fuzzy or Gaussian based models, the state of art model is Bayesian based one, while solving the drawbacks of others. However, it is known that the Bayesian approach for the high dimensional and a large number of data requires high computational cost, and the covariance matrix in likelihood becomes unstable. This paper introduces Kernel Bayesian ART (KBA) and ARTMAP (KBAM) by integrating Kernel Bayes' Rule (KBR) and Correntropy Induced Metric (CIM) to Bayesian ART (BA) and ARTMAP (BAM), respectively, while maintaining the properties of BA and BAM. The kernel frameworks in KBA and KBAM are able to avoid the curse of dimensionality. In addition, the covariance-free Bayesian computation by KBR provides the efficient and stable computational capability to KBA and KBAM. Furthermore, Correntropy-based similarity measurement allows improving the noise reduction ability even in the high dimensional space. The simulation experiments show that KBA performs an outstanding self-organizing capability than BA, and KBAM provides the superior classification ability than BAM, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  6. Free will in Bayesian and inverse Bayesian inference-driven endo-consciousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunji, Yukio-Pegio; Minoura, Mai; Kojima, Kei; Horry, Yoichi

    2017-12-01

    How can we link challenging issues related to consciousness and/or qualia with natural science? The introduction of endo-perspective, instead of exo-perspective, as proposed by Matsuno, Rössler, and Gunji, is considered one of the most promising candidate approaches. Here, we distinguish the endo-from the exo-perspective in terms of whether the external is or is not directly operated. In the endo-perspective, the external can be neither perceived nor recognized directly; rather, one can only indirectly summon something outside of the perspective, which can be illustrated by a causation-reversal pair. On one hand, causation logically proceeds from the cause to the effect. On the other hand, a reversal from the effect to the cause is non-logical and is equipped with a metaphorical structure. We argue that the differences in exo- and endo-perspectives result not from the difference between Western and Eastern cultures, but from differences between modernism and animism. Here, a causation-reversal pair described using a pair of upward (from premise to consequence) and downward (from consequence to premise) causation and a pair of Bayesian and inverse Bayesian inference (BIB inference). Accordingly, the notion of endo-consciousness is proposed as an agent equipped with BIB inference. We also argue that BIB inference can yield both highly efficient computations through Bayesian interference and robust computations through inverse Bayesian inference. By adapting a logical model of the free will theorem to the BIB inference, we show that endo-consciousness can explain free will as a regression of the controllability of voluntary action. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS

    CERN Document Server

    Ntzoufras, Ioannis

    2009-01-01

    A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...

  8. 3D Bayesian contextual classifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Rasmus

    2000-01-01

    We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours.......We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours....

  9. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Linda

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary...... configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for the salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...

  10. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

    In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary...... configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...

  11. Bayesian variable selection in regression

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitchell, T.J.; Beauchamp, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the selection of subsets of ''predictor'' variables in a linear regression model for the prediction of a ''dependent'' variable. We take a Bayesian approach and assign a probability distribution to the dependent variable through a specification of prior distributions for the unknown parameters in the regression model. The appropriate posterior probabilities are derived for each submodel and methods are proposed for evaluating the family of prior distributions. Examples are given that show the application of the Bayesian methodology. 23 refs., 3 figs.

  12. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees a...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....... and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last...

  13. Bayesian methods for proteomic biomarker development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belinda Hernández

    2015-12-01

    In this review we provide an introduction to Bayesian inference and demonstrate some of the advantages of using a Bayesian framework. We summarize how Bayesian methods have been used previously in proteomics and other areas of bioinformatics. Finally, we describe some popular and emerging Bayesian models from the statistical literature and provide a worked tutorial including code snippets to show how these methods may be applied for the evaluation of proteomic biomarkers.

  14. Bayesian variable order Markov models: Towards Bayesian predictive state representations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dimitrakakis, C.

    2009-01-01

    We present a Bayesian variable order Markov model that shares many similarities with predictive state representations. The resulting models are compact and much easier to specify and learn than classical predictive state representations. Moreover, we show that they significantly outperform a more

  15. The humble Bayesian : Model checking from a fully Bayesian perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morey, Richard D.; Romeijn, Jan-Willem; Rouder, Jeffrey N.

    Gelman and Shalizi (2012) criticize what they call the usual story in Bayesian statistics: that the distribution over hypotheses or models is the sole means of statistical inference, thus excluding model checking and revision, and that inference is inductivist rather than deductivist. They present

  16. Prediction of HLA-A2 binding peptides using Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astakhov, Vadim; Cherkasov, Artem

    2005-10-11

    Prediction of peptides binding to HLA (human leukocyte antigen) finds application in peptide vaccine design. A number of statistical and structural models have been developed in recent years for HLA binding peptide prediction. However, a Bayesian Network (BNT) model is not available. In this study we describe a BNT model for HLA-A2 binding peptide prediction. It has been demonstrated that the BNT model allows up to 99 % accurate identification of the HLA-A2 binding peptides and provides similar prediction accuracy compared to HMM (Hidden Markov Model) and ANN (Artificial Neural Network). At the same time, it has been shown that the BNT has that advantage that it allows more accurate performance for smaller sets of empirical data compared to the HMM and the ANN methods. When the size of the training set has been reduced to 40% from the original data, the identification of the HLA-A2 binding peptides by the BNT, ANN and HMM methods produced ARoc (area under receiver operating characteristic) values 0.88, 0.85, 0.85 respectively. The results of the work demonstrate certain advantages of using the Bayesian Networks in predicting the HLA binding peptides using smaller datasets.

  17. An Advanced Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of the Generation of Wind Power

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Bracale

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Currently, among renewable distributed generation systems, wind generators are receiving a great deal of interest due to the great economic, technological, and environmental incentives they involve. However, the uncertainties due to the intermittent nature of wind energy make it difficult to operate electrical power systems optimally and make decisions that satisfy the needs of all the stakeholders of the electricity energy market. Thus, there is increasing interest determining how to forecast wind power production accurately. Most the methods that have been published in the relevant literature provided deterministic forecasts even though great interest has been focused recently on probabilistic forecast methods. In this paper, an advanced probabilistic method is proposed for short-term forecasting of wind power production. A mixture of two Weibull distributions was used as a probability function to model the uncertainties associated with wind speed. Then, a Bayesian inference approach with a particularly-effective, autoregressive, integrated, moving-average model was used to determine the parameters of the mixture Weibull distribution. Numerical applications also are presented to provide evidence of the forecasting performance of the Bayesian-based approach.

  18. Using robust Bayesian network to estimate the residuals of fluoroquinolone antibiotic in soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xuewen; Xie, Yunfeng; Li, Lianfa; Yang, Xunfeng; Wang, Ning; Wang, Jinfeng

    2015-11-01

    Prediction of antibiotic pollution and its consequences is difficult, due to the uncertainties and complexities associated with multiple related factors. This article employed domain knowledge and spatial data to construct a Bayesian network (BN) model to assess fluoroquinolone antibiotic (FQs) pollution in the soil of an intensive vegetable cultivation area. The results show: (1) The relationships between FQs pollution and contributory factors: Three factors (cultivation methods, crop rotations, and chicken manure types) were consistently identified as predictors in the topological structures of three FQs, indicating their importance in FQs pollution; deduced with domain knowledge, the cultivation methods are determined by the crop rotations, which require different nutrients (derived from the manure) according to different plant biomass. (2) The performance of BN model: The integrative robust Bayesian network model achieved the highest detection probability (pd) of high-risk and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area, since it incorporates domain knowledge and model uncertainty. Our encouraging findings have implications for the use of BN as a robust approach to assessment of FQs pollution and for informing decisions on appropriate remedial measures.

  19. Pre-Operational Stress Briefing: Does it have any Effect? A Comparison of Royal Naval and Royal Marine Personnel Receiving a Pre-Operational Stress Briefing with a Group of Personnel who did not

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sharpley, John G

    2006-01-01

    .... There is no equivalent literature for UK military. Current policy requires all personnel going on operations to have this pre-deployment education, but there is very little evidence to recommend this, other than good face validity...

  20. Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…

  1. Bayesian models in cognitive neuroscience: A tutorial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    O'Reilly, J.X.; Mars, R.B.

    2015-01-01

    This chapter provides an introduction to Bayesian models and their application in cognitive neuroscience. The central feature of Bayesian models, as opposed to other classes of models, is that Bayesian models represent the beliefs of an observer as probability distributions, allowing them to

  2. A Bayesian framework for risk perception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Erp, H.R.N.

    2017-01-01

    We present here a Bayesian framework of risk perception. This framework encompasses plausibility judgments, decision making, and question asking. Plausibility judgments are modeled by way of Bayesian probability theory, decision making is modeled by way of a Bayesian decision theory, and relevancy

  3. Bayesian Statistics: Concepts and Applications in Animal Breeding – A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lsxmikant-Sambhaji Kokate

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Statistics uses two major approaches- conventional (or frequentist and Bayesian approach. Bayesian approach provides a complete paradigm for both statistical inference and decision making under uncertainty. Bayesian methods solve many of the difficulties faced by conventional statistical methods, and extend the applicability of statistical methods. It exploits the use of probabilistic models to formulate scientific problems. To use Bayesian statistics, there is computational difficulty and secondly, Bayesian methods require specifying prior probability distributions. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC methods were applied to overcome the computational difficulty, and interest in Bayesian methods was renewed. In Bayesian statistics, Bayesian structural equation model (SEM is used. It provides a powerful and flexible approach for studying quantitative traits for wide spectrum problems and thus it has no operational difficulties, with the exception of some complex cases. In this method, the problems are solved at ease, and the statisticians feel it comfortable with the particular way of expressing the results and employing the software available to analyze a large variety of problems.

  4. Continuously rethinking the definition of influenza for surveillance systems: a Dependent Bayesian Expert System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alemi, Farrokh; Atherton, Martin J; Pattie, David C; Torii, Manabu

    2013-08-01

    In the Electronic Surveillance System for the Early Notification of Community-based Epidemics (ESSENCE), influenza was originally defined by a list of 29 and later by a list of 12 diagnosis codes. This article describes a dependent Bayesian procedure designed to improve the ESSENCE system and exploit multiple sources of information without being biased by redundancy. We obtained 13,096 cases within the Armed Forces Health Longitudinal Technological Application electronic medical records that included an influenza laboratory test. A Dependent Bayesian Expert System (D-BESt) was used to predict influenza from diagnoses, symptoms, reason for visit, temperature, month of visit, category of enrollment, and demographics. For each case, D-BESt sequentially selects the most discriminating piece of information, calculates its likelihood ratio conditioned on previously selected information, and updates the case's probability of influenza. When the analysis was limited to definitions based on diagnoses and was applied to a sample of patients for whom laboratory tests had been ordered, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) for the previous (29-diagnosis) and current (12-diagnosis) ESSENCE lists and the D-BESt algorithm were, respectively, 0.47, 0.36, and 0.77. Including other sources of information further improved the AUC for D-BESt to 0.79. At the best cutoff point for D-BESt, where the receiver operating characteristic curve for D-BESt is farthest from the diagonal line, the D-BESt algorithm correctly classified 84% of cases (specificity = 88%, sensitivity = 62%). In comparison, the current ESSENCE approach of using a list of 12 diagnoses correctly classified only 31% of this sample of cases (specificity = 29%, sensitivity = 42%). False alarms in ESSENCE surveillance systems can be reduced if a probabilistic dynamic learning system is used.

  5. SU-F-R-44: Modeling Lung SBRT Tumor Response Using Bayesian Network Averaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diamant, A; Ybarra, N; Seuntjens, J [McGill University, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); El Naqa, I [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: The prediction of tumor control after a patient receives lung SBRT (stereotactic body radiation therapy) has proven to be challenging, due to the complex interactions between an individual’s biology and dose-volume metrics. Many of these variables have predictive power when combined, a feature that we exploit using a graph modeling approach based on Bayesian networks. This provides a probabilistic framework that allows for accurate and visually intuitive predictive modeling. The aim of this study is to uncover possible interactions between an individual patient’s characteristics and generate a robust model capable of predicting said patient’s treatment outcome. Methods: We investigated a cohort of 32 prospective patients from multiple institutions whom had received curative SBRT to the lung. The number of patients exhibiting tumor failure was observed to be 7 (event rate of 22%). The serum concentration of 5 biomarkers previously associated with NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer) was measured pre-treatment. A total of 21 variables were analyzed including: dose-volume metrics with BED (biologically effective dose) correction and clinical variables. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior probability distribution of the potential graphical structures. The probability of tumor failure was then estimated by averaging the top 100 graphs and applying Baye’s rule. Results: The optimal Bayesian model generated throughout this study incorporated the PTV volume, the serum concentration of the biomarker EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor) and prescription BED. This predictive model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.94(1), providing better performance compared to competing methods in other literature. Conclusion: The use of biomarkers in conjunction with dose-volume metrics allows for the generation of a robust predictive model. The preliminary results of this report demonstrate that it is possible

  6. Probabilistic Space Weather Forecasting: a Bayesian Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camporeale, E.; Chandorkar, M.; Borovsky, J.; Care', A.

    2017-12-01

    Most of the Space Weather forecasts, both at operational and research level, are not probabilistic in nature. Unfortunately, a prediction that does not provide a confidence level is not very useful in a decision-making scenario. Nowadays, forecast models range from purely data-driven, machine learning algorithms, to physics-based approximation of first-principle equations (and everything that sits in between). Uncertainties pervade all such models, at every level: from the raw data to finite-precision implementation of numerical methods. The most rigorous way of quantifying the propagation of uncertainties is by embracing a Bayesian probabilistic approach. One of the simplest and most robust machine learning technique in the Bayesian framework is Gaussian Process regression and classification. Here, we present the application of Gaussian Processes to the problems of the DST geomagnetic index forecast, the solar wind type classification, and the estimation of diffusion parameters in radiation belt modeling. In each of these very diverse problems, the GP approach rigorously provide forecasts in the form of predictive distributions. In turn, these distributions can be used as input for ensemble simulations in order to quantify the amplification of uncertainties. We show that we have achieved excellent results in all of the standard metrics to evaluate our models, with very modest computational cost.

  7. Differentiated Bayesian Conjoint Choice Designs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Z. Sándor (Zsolt); M. Wedel (Michel)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractPrevious conjoint choice design construction procedures have produced a single design that is administered to all subjects. This paper proposes to construct a limited set of different designs. The designs are constructed in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account prior uncertainty about

  8. Bayesian networks in levee reliability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roscoe, K.; Hanea, A.

    2015-01-01

    We applied a Bayesian network to a system of levees for which the results of traditional reliability analysis showed high failure probabilities, which conflicted with the intuition and experience of those managing the levees. We made use of forty proven strength observations - high water levels with

  9. Bayesian Classification of Image Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goswami, Dibyendu; Kalkan, Sinan; Krüger, Norbert

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we describe work on Bayesian classi ers for distinguishing between homogeneous structures, textures, edges and junctions. We build semi-local classiers from hand-labeled images to distinguish between these four different kinds of structures based on the concept of intrinsic...... dimensionality. The built classi er is tested on standard and non-standard images...

  10. Computational Neuropsychology and Bayesian Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parr, Thomas; Rees, Geraint; Friston, Karl J

    2018-01-01

    Computational theories of brain function have become very influential in neuroscience. They have facilitated the growth of formal approaches to disease, particularly in psychiatric research. In this paper, we provide a narrative review of the body of computational research addressing neuropsychological syndromes, and focus on those that employ Bayesian frameworks. Bayesian approaches to understanding brain function formulate perception and action as inferential processes. These inferences combine 'prior' beliefs with a generative (predictive) model to explain the causes of sensations. Under this view, neuropsychological deficits can be thought of as false inferences that arise due to aberrant prior beliefs (that are poor fits to the real world). This draws upon the notion of a Bayes optimal pathology - optimal inference with suboptimal priors - and provides a means for computational phenotyping. In principle, any given neuropsychological disorder could be characterized by the set of prior beliefs that would make a patient's behavior appear Bayes optimal. We start with an overview of some key theoretical constructs and use these to motivate a form of computational neuropsychology that relates anatomical structures in the brain to the computations they perform. Throughout, we draw upon computational accounts of neuropsychological syndromes. These are selected to emphasize the key features of a Bayesian approach, and the possible types of pathological prior that may be present. They range from visual neglect through hallucinations to autism. Through these illustrative examples, we review the use of Bayesian approaches to understand the link between biology and computation that is at the heart of neuropsychology.

  11. Bayesian Alternation During Tactile Augmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caspar Mathias Goeke

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition, rotation only (native condition, and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition. Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants’ responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND. Then we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred2 = 1.67 than the Bayesian integration model (χred2= 4.34. Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all model (χred2= 1.64, which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred2= 1.09 utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in

  12. Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutihac, R.; Cicuttin, A.; Cerdeira, A.; Stanciulescu, C.

    1998-12-01

    Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)

  13. Bayesian policy reuse

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosman, Benjamin

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available instance is the accumulated discounted reward, Upi = ∑k i=0 γ iri, with k being the length of the episode and ri being the reward received at step i. We refer to U pi generated from a policy pi in a task instance simply as the policy’s performance. Solving... an MDP µ is to acquire an optimal policy pi∗ = arg maxpi Upi which maximises the total expected return of µ. For a reinforcement learning agent, T and R are typically unknown. We denote a collection of policies possessed by the agent by Π, and refer...

  14. Bayesian analysis of rare events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straub, Daniel; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

    2016-06-01

    In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

  15. Airline Sustainability Modeling: A New Framework with Application of Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hashem Salarzadeh Jenatabadi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available There are many factors which could influence the sustainability of airlines. The main purpose of this study is to introduce a framework for a financial sustainability index and model it based on structural equation modeling (SEM with maximum likelihood and Bayesian predictors. The introduced framework includes economic performance, operational performance, cost performance, and financial performance. Based on both Bayesian SEM (Bayesian-SEM and Classical SEM (Classical-SEM, it was found that economic performance with both operational performance and cost performance are significantly related to the financial performance index. The four mathematical indices employed are root mean square error, coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error to compare the efficiency of Bayesian-SEM and Classical-SEM in predicting the airline financial performance. The outputs confirmed that the framework with Bayesian prediction delivered a good fit with the data, although the framework predicted with a Classical-SEM approach did not prepare a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between Classical and Bayesian predictions, as well as the potential advantages and caveats with the application of Bayesian approach in airline sustainability studies, are debated.

  16. Bayesian methods for measures of agreement

    CERN Document Server

    Broemeling, Lyle D

    2009-01-01

    Using WinBUGS to implement Bayesian inferences of estimation and testing hypotheses, Bayesian Methods for Measures of Agreement presents useful methods for the design and analysis of agreement studies. It focuses on agreement among the various players in the diagnostic process.The author employs a Bayesian approach to provide statistical inferences based on various models of intra- and interrater agreement. He presents many examples that illustrate the Bayesian mode of reasoning and explains elements of a Bayesian application, including prior information, experimental information, the likelihood function, posterior distribution, and predictive distribution. The appendices provide the necessary theoretical foundation to understand Bayesian methods as well as introduce the fundamentals of programming and executing the WinBUGS software.Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, this hands-on book explores numerous measures of agreement, including the Kappa coefficient, the G coefficient, and intraclass correlation...

  17. Minimum mean square error estimation and approximation of the Bayesian update

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2015-01-07

    Given: a physical system modeled by a PDE or ODE with uncertain coefficient q(w), a measurement operator Y (u(q); q), where u(q; w) uncertain solution. Aim: to identify q(w). The mapping from parameters to observations is usually not invertible, hence this inverse identification problem is generally ill-posed. To identify q(w) we derived non-linear Bayesian update from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. To reduce cost of the Bayesian update we offer a functional approximation, e.g. polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). New: We derive linear, quadratic etc approximation of full Bayesian update.

  18. Bayesian Networks as a Decision Tool for O&M of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2010-01-01

    Costs to operation and maintenance (O&M) of offshore wind turbines are large. This paper presents how influence diagrams can be used to assist in rational decision making for O&M. An influence diagram is a graphical representation of a decision tree based on Bayesian Networks. Bayesian Networks...... offer efficient Bayesian updating of a damage model when imperfect information from inspections/monitoring is available. The extension to an influence diagram offers the calculation of expected utilities for decision alternatives, and can be used to find the optimal strategy among different alternatives...

  19. General and Local: Averaged k-Dependence Bayesian Classifiers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Limin Wang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The inference of a general Bayesian network has been shown to be an NP-hard problem, even for approximate solutions. Although k-dependence Bayesian (KDB classifier can construct at arbitrary points (values of k along the attribute dependence spectrum, it cannot identify the changes of interdependencies when attributes take different values. Local KDB, which learns in the framework of KDB, is proposed in this study to describe the local dependencies implicated in each test instance. Based on the analysis of functional dependencies, substitution-elimination resolution, a new type of semi-naive Bayesian operation, is proposed to substitute or eliminate generalization to achieve accurate estimation of conditional probability distribution while reducing computational complexity. The final classifier, averaged k-dependence Bayesian (AKDB classifiers, will average the output of KDB and local KDB. Experimental results on the repository of machine learning databases from the University of California Irvine (UCI showed that AKDB has significant advantages in zero-one loss and bias relative to naive Bayes (NB, tree augmented naive Bayes (TAN, Averaged one-dependence estimators (AODE, and KDB. Moreover, KDB and local KDB show mutually complementary characteristics with respect to variance.

  20. Bayesian inference of chemical kinetic models from proposed reactions

    KAUST Repository

    Galagali, Nikhil

    2015-02-01

    © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. Bayesian inference provides a natural framework for combining experimental data with prior knowledge to develop chemical kinetic models and quantify the associated uncertainties, not only in parameter values but also in model structure. Most existing applications of Bayesian model selection methods to chemical kinetics have been limited to comparisons among a small set of models, however. The significant computational cost of evaluating posterior model probabilities renders traditional Bayesian methods infeasible when the model space becomes large. We present a new framework for tractable Bayesian model inference and uncertainty quantification using a large number of systematically generated model hypotheses. The approach involves imposing point-mass mixture priors over rate constants and exploring the resulting posterior distribution using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The posterior samples are used to identify plausible models, to quantify rate constant uncertainties, and to extract key diagnostic information about model structure-such as the reactions and operating pathways most strongly supported by the data. We provide numerical demonstrations of the proposed framework by inferring kinetic models for catalytic steam and dry reforming of methane using available experimental data.

  1. Development of dynamic Bayesian models for web application test management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azarnova, T. V.; Polukhin, P. V.; Bondarenko, Yu V.; Kashirina, I. L.

    2018-03-01

    The mathematical apparatus of dynamic Bayesian networks is an effective and technically proven tool that can be used to model complex stochastic dynamic processes. According to the results of the research, mathematical models and methods of dynamic Bayesian networks provide a high coverage of stochastic tasks associated with error testing in multiuser software products operated in a dynamically changing environment. Formalized representation of the discrete test process as a dynamic Bayesian model allows us to organize the logical connection between individual test assets for multiple time slices. This approach gives an opportunity to present testing as a discrete process with set structural components responsible for the generation of test assets. Dynamic Bayesian network-based models allow us to combine in one management area individual units and testing components with different functionalities and a direct influence on each other in the process of comprehensive testing of various groups of computer bugs. The application of the proposed models provides an opportunity to use a consistent approach to formalize test principles and procedures, methods used to treat situational error signs, and methods used to produce analytical conclusions based on test results.

  2. Decision making in probabilistic studies - comparison of frequentist and bayesian approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aupied, J.

    1992-06-01

    This technical note is a critical comparison of the classic approach and of the Bayesian approach, as applied to probabilistic studies on operational reliability. Tests of assumptions and confidence intervals have been analyzed with particular emphasis on the problems of application. Bayesian techniques applied to the estimation of reliability parameters bring new solutions to the processing of experience feedback, by taking into consideration expert judgments. A number of case studies illustrate the two approaches

  3. Electronic warfare receivers and receiving systems

    CERN Document Server

    Poisel, Richard A

    2014-01-01

    Receivers systems are considered the core of electronic warfare (EW) intercept systems. Without them, the fundamental purpose of such systems is null and void. This book considers the major elements that make up receiver systems and the receivers that go in them.This resource provides system design engineers with techniques for design and development of EW receivers for modern modulations (spread spectrum) in addition to receivers for older, common modulation formats. Each major module in these receivers is considered in detail. Design information is included as well as performance tradeoffs o

  4. Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

    2014-01-01

    This article considers Bayesian model averaging as a means of addressing uncertainty in the selection of variables in the propensity score equation. We investigate an approximate Bayesian model averaging approach based on the model-averaged propensity score estimates produced by the R package BMA but that ignores uncertainty in the propensity score. We also provide a fully Bayesian model averaging approach via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling (MCMC) to account for uncertainty in both parameters and models. A detailed study of our approach examines the differences in the causal estimate when incorporating noninformative versus informative priors in the model averaging stage. We examine these approaches under common methods of propensity score implementation. In addition, we evaluate the impact of changing the size of Occam's window used to narrow down the range of possible models. We also assess the predictive performance of both Bayesian model averaging propensity score approaches and compare it with the case without Bayesian model averaging. Overall, results show that both Bayesian model averaging propensity score approaches recover the treatment effect estimates well and generally provide larger uncertainty estimates, as expected. Both Bayesian model averaging approaches offer slightly better prediction of the propensity score compared with the Bayesian approach with a single propensity score equation. Covariate balance checks for the case study show that both Bayesian model averaging approaches offer good balance. The fully Bayesian model averaging approach also provides posterior probability intervals of the balance indices.

  5. Pedestrian dynamics via Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkat, Ibrahim; Khader, Ahamad Tajudin; Subramanian, K. G.

    2014-06-01

    Studies on pedestrian dynamics have vital applications in crowd control management relevant to organizing safer large scale gatherings including pilgrimages. Reasoning pedestrian motion via computational intelligence techniques could be posed as a potential research problem within the realms of Artificial Intelligence. In this contribution, we propose a "Bayesian Network Model for Pedestrian Dynamics" (BNMPD) to reason the vast uncertainty imposed by pedestrian motion. With reference to key findings from literature which include simulation studies, we systematically identify: What are the various factors that could contribute to the prediction of crowd flow status? The proposed model unifies these factors in a cohesive manner using Bayesian Networks (BNs) and serves as a sophisticated probabilistic tool to simulate vital cause and effect relationships entailed in the pedestrian domain.

  6. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

     Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...... primarily for practitioners, this book does not require sophisticated mathematical skills or deep understanding of the underlying theory and methods nor does it discuss alternative technologies for reasoning under uncertainty. The theory and methods presented are illustrated through more than 140 examples...

  7. BAYESIAN IMAGE RESTORATION, USING CONFIGURATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed in detail for 3 X 3 and 5 X 5 configurations and examples of the performance of the procedure are given.

  8. Bayesian Inference on Proportional Elections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio

    2015-01-01

    Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software. PMID:25786259

  9. Bayesian analyses of cognitive architecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houpt, Joseph W; Heathcote, Andrew; Eidels, Ami

    2017-06-01

    The question of cognitive architecture-how cognitive processes are temporally organized-has arisen in many areas of psychology. This question has proved difficult to answer, with many proposed solutions turning out to be spurious. Systems factorial technology (Townsend & Nozawa, 1995) provided the first rigorous empirical and analytical method of identifying cognitive architecture, using the survivor interaction contrast (SIC) to determine when people are using multiple sources of information in parallel or in series. Although the SIC is based on rigorous nonparametric mathematical modeling of response time distributions, for many years inference about cognitive architecture has relied solely on visual assessment. Houpt and Townsend (2012) recently introduced null hypothesis significance tests, and here we develop both parametric and nonparametric (encompassing prior) Bayesian inference. We show that the Bayesian approaches can have considerable advantages. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. Deep Learning and Bayesian Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prosper Harrison B.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A revolution is underway in which deep neural networks are routinely used to solve diffcult problems such as face recognition and natural language understanding. Particle physicists have taken notice and have started to deploy these methods, achieving results that suggest a potentially significant shift in how data might be analyzed in the not too distant future. We discuss a few recent developments in the application of deep neural networks and then indulge in speculation about how such methods might be used to automate certain aspects of data analysis in particle physics. Next, the connection to Bayesian methods is discussed and the paper ends with thoughts on a significant practical issue, namely, how, from a Bayesian perspective, one might optimize the construction of deep neural networks.

  11. Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello

    Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.

  12. Multiview Bayesian Correlated Component Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamronn, Simon Due; Poulsen, Andreas Trier; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2015-01-01

    are identical. Here we propose a hierarchical probabilistic model that can infer the level of universality in such multiview data, from completely unrelated representations, corresponding to canonical correlation analysis, to identical representations as in correlated component analysis. This new model, which...... we denote Bayesian correlated component analysis, evaluates favorably against three relevant algorithms in simulated data. A well-established benchmark EEG data set is used to further validate the new model and infer the variability of spatial representations across multiple subjects....

  13. Reliability analysis with Bayesian networks

    OpenAIRE

    Zwirglmaier, Kilian Martin

    2017-01-01

    Bayesian networks (BNs) represent a probabilistic modeling tool with large potential for reliability engineering. While BNs have been successfully applied to reliability engineering, there are remaining issues, some of which are addressed in this work. Firstly a classification of BN elicitation approaches is proposed. Secondly two approximate inference approaches, one of which is based on discretization and the other one on sampling, are proposed. These approaches are applicable to hybrid/con...

  14. Bayesian Sampling using Condition Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael H.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2002-01-01

    . This allows for a Bayesian formulation of the indicators whereby the experience and expertise of the inspection personnel may be fully utilized and consistently updated as frequentistic information is collected. The approach is illustrated on an example considering a concrete structure subject to corrosion....... It is shown how half-cell potential measurements may be utilized to update the probability of excessive repair after 50 years....

  15. Computational Neuropsychology and Bayesian Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Parr

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Computational theories of brain function have become very influential in neuroscience. They have facilitated the growth of formal approaches to disease, particularly in psychiatric research. In this paper, we provide a narrative review of the body of computational research addressing neuropsychological syndromes, and focus on those that employ Bayesian frameworks. Bayesian approaches to understanding brain function formulate perception and action as inferential processes. These inferences combine ‘prior’ beliefs with a generative (predictive model to explain the causes of sensations. Under this view, neuropsychological deficits can be thought of as false inferences that arise due to aberrant prior beliefs (that are poor fits to the real world. This draws upon the notion of a Bayes optimal pathology – optimal inference with suboptimal priors – and provides a means for computational phenotyping. In principle, any given neuropsychological disorder could be characterized by the set of prior beliefs that would make a patient’s behavior appear Bayes optimal. We start with an overview of some key theoretical constructs and use these to motivate a form of computational neuropsychology that relates anatomical structures in the brain to the computations they perform. Throughout, we draw upon computational accounts of neuropsychological syndromes. These are selected to emphasize the key features of a Bayesian approach, and the possible types of pathological prior that may be present. They range from visual neglect through hallucinations to autism. Through these illustrative examples, we review the use of Bayesian approaches to understand the link between biology and computation that is at the heart of neuropsychology.

  16. Bayesian methods applied to GWAS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernando, Rohan L; Garrick, Dorian

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian multiple-regression methods are being successfully used for genomic prediction and selection. These regression models simultaneously fit many more markers than the number of observations available for the analysis. Thus, the Bayes theorem is used to combine prior beliefs of marker effects, which are expressed in terms of prior distributions, with information from data for inference. Often, the analyses are too complex for closed-form solutions and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is used to draw inferences from posterior distributions. This chapter describes how these Bayesian multiple-regression analyses can be used for GWAS. In most GWAS, false positives are controlled by limiting the genome-wise error rate, which is the probability of one or more false-positive results, to a small value. As the number of test in GWAS is very large, this results in very low power. Here we show how in Bayesian GWAS false positives can be controlled by limiting the proportion of false-positive results among all positives to some small value. The advantage of this approach is that the power of detecting associations is not inversely related to the number of markers.

  17. Bayesian phylogeny analysis via stochastic approximation Monte Carlo

    KAUST Repository

    Cheon, Sooyoung

    2009-11-01

    Monte Carlo methods have received much attention in the recent literature of phylogeny analysis. However, the conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, such as the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, tend to get trapped in a local mode in simulating from the posterior distribution of phylogenetic trees, rendering the inference ineffective. In this paper, we apply an advanced Monte Carlo algorithm, the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm, to Bayesian phylogeny analysis. Our method is compared with two popular Bayesian phylogeny software, BAMBE and MrBayes, on simulated and real datasets. The numerical results indicate that our method outperforms BAMBE and MrBayes. Among the three methods, SAMC produces the consensus trees which have the highest similarity to the true trees, and the model parameter estimates which have the smallest mean square errors, but costs the least CPU time. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. 12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo

    2015-01-01

    Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...

  19. Bayesian Ranging for Radio Localization with and without Line-of-Sight Detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jing, Lishuai; Pedersen, Troels; Fleury, Bernard Henri

    2015-01-01

    We consider Bayesian ranging methods for local- ization in wireless communication systems. Based on a channel model and given priors for the range and the line-of-sight (LOS) condition, we propose range estimators with and without LOS detection. Since the pdf of the received frequency-domain sign......We consider Bayesian ranging methods for local- ization in wireless communication systems. Based on a channel model and given priors for the range and the line-of-sight (LOS) condition, we propose range estimators with and without LOS detection. Since the pdf of the received frequency...

  20. Transmitter-receiver system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Weerdt, E.; Van Kampen, E.J.; Chu, Q.P.

    2009-01-01

    The invention relates to a transmitter-receiver system comprising at least three transmitters and at least a first receiver and a second receiver, wherein the receivers are connected to a computing device that is arranged to analyse signals that said receivers receive from said transmitters and to

  1. Bayesian Calibration of Simultaneity in Audiovisual Temporal Order Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Shinya; Miyazaki, Makoto; Iwano, Takayuki; Kitazawa, Shigeru

    2012-01-01

    After repeated exposures to two successive audiovisual stimuli presented in one frequent order, participants eventually perceive a pair separated by some lag time in the same order as occurring simultaneously (lag adaptation). In contrast, we previously found that perceptual changes occurred in the opposite direction in response to tactile stimuli, conforming to Bayesian integration theory (Bayesian calibration). We further showed, in theory, that the effect of Bayesian calibration cannot be observed when the lag adaptation was fully operational. This led to the hypothesis that Bayesian calibration affects judgments regarding the order of audiovisual stimuli, but that this effect is concealed behind the lag adaptation mechanism. In the present study, we showed that lag adaptation is pitch-insensitive using two sounds at 1046 and 1480 Hz. This enabled us to cancel lag adaptation by associating one pitch with sound-first stimuli and the other with light-first stimuli. When we presented each type of stimulus (high- or low-tone) in a different block, the point of simultaneity shifted to “sound-first” for the pitch associated with sound-first stimuli, and to “light-first” for the pitch associated with light-first stimuli. These results are consistent with lag adaptation. In contrast, when we delivered each type of stimulus in a randomized order, the point of simultaneity shifted to “light-first” for the pitch associated with sound-first stimuli, and to “sound-first” for the pitch associated with light-first stimuli. The results clearly show that Bayesian calibration is pitch-specific and is at work behind pitch-insensitive lag adaptation during temporal order judgment of audiovisual stimuli. PMID:22792297

  2. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

    2004-01-01

    We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...... and differentiating these circuits in time linear in their size. We report on experimental results showing the successful compilation, and efficient inference, on relational Bayesian networks whose {\\primula}--generated propositional instances have thousands of variables, and whose jointrees have clusters...

  3. Bayesian Posterior Distributions Without Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Cole, Stephen R.; Chu, Haitao; Greenland, Sander; Hamra, Ghassan; Richardson, David B.

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian posterior parameter distributions are often simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are not always necessary and do not help the uninitiated understand Bayesian inference. As a bridge to understanding Bayesian inference, the authors illustrate a transparent rejection sampling method. In example 1, they illustrate rejection sampling using 36 cases and 198 controls from a case-control study (1976–1983) assessing the relation between residential ex...

  4. 3rd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

    CERN Document Server

    Lanzarone, Ettore; Villalobos, Isadora; Mattei, Alessandra

    2017-01-01

    This book is a selection of peer-reviewed contributions presented at the third Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM 2016, Florence, Italy, June 19-21. The meeting provided a unique opportunity for young researchers, M.S. students, Ph.D. students, and postdocs dealing with Bayesian statistics to connect with the Bayesian community at large, to exchange ideas, and to network with others working in the same field. The contributions develop and apply Bayesian methods in a variety of fields, ranging from the traditional (e.g., biostatistics and reliability) to the most innovative ones (e.g., big data and networks).

  5. Learning dynamic Bayesian networks with mixed variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard

    This paper considers dynamic Bayesian networks for discrete and continuous variables. We only treat the case, where the distribution of the variables is conditional Gaussian. We show how to learn the parameters and structure of a dynamic Bayesian network and also how the Markov order can be learn....... An automated procedure for specifying prior distributions for the parameters in a dynamic Bayesian network is presented. It is a simple extension of the procedure for the ordinary Bayesian networks. Finally the W¨olfer?s sunspot numbers are analyzed....

  6. RADYBAN: A tool for reliability analysis of dynamic fault trees through conversion into dynamic Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montani, S.; Portinale, L.; Bobbio, A.; Codetta-Raiteri, D.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we present RADYBAN (Reliability Analysis with DYnamic BAyesian Networks), a software tool which allows to analyze a dynamic fault tree relying on its conversion into a dynamic Bayesian network. The tool implements a modular algorithm for automatically translating a dynamic fault tree into the corresponding dynamic Bayesian network and exploits classical algorithms for the inference on dynamic Bayesian networks, in order to compute reliability measures. After having described the basic features of the tool, we show how it operates on a real world example and we compare the unreliability results it generates with those returned by other methodologies, in order to verify the correctness and the consistency of the results obtained

  7. Bayesian phylogeography finds its roots.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Lemey

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available As a key factor in endemic and epidemic dynamics, the geographical distribution of viruses has been frequently interpreted in the light of their genetic histories. Unfortunately, inference of historical dispersal or migration patterns of viruses has mainly been restricted to model-free heuristic approaches that provide little insight into the temporal setting of the spatial dynamics. The introduction of probabilistic models of evolution, however, offers unique opportunities to engage in this statistical endeavor. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, visualization and hypothesis testing of phylogeographic history. By implementing character mapping in a Bayesian software that samples time-scaled phylogenies, we enable the reconstruction of timed viral dispersal patterns while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. Standard Markov model inference is extended with a stochastic search variable selection procedure that identifies the parsimonious descriptions of the diffusion process. In addition, we propose priors that can incorporate geographical sampling distributions or characterize alternative hypotheses about the spatial dynamics. To visualize the spatial and temporal information, we summarize inferences using virtual globe software. We describe how Bayesian phylogeography compares with previous parsimony analysis in the investigation of the influenza A H5N1 origin and H5N1 epidemiological linkage among sampling localities. Analysis of rabies in West African dog populations reveals how virus diffusion may enable endemic maintenance through continuous epidemic cycles. From these analyses, we conclude that our phylogeographic framework will make an important asset in molecular epidemiology that can be easily generalized to infer biogeogeography from genetic data for many organisms.

  8. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  9. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    2013-01-01

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  10. Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

    The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....

  11. PDS-Modelling and Regional Bayesian Estimation of Extreme Rainfalls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan; Harremoës, Poul

    1994-01-01

    Since 1979 a country-wide system of raingauges has been operated in Denmark in order to obtain a better basis for design and analysis of urban drainage systems. As an alternative to the traditional non-parametric approach the Partial Duration Series method is employed in the modelling of extreme ....... The application of the Bayesian approach is derived in case of both exponential and generalized Pareto distributed exceedances. Finally, the aspect of including economic perspectives in the estimation of the design events is briefly discussed....... in Denmark cannot be justified. In order to obtain an estimation procedure at non-monitored sites and to improve at-site estimates a regional Bayesian approach is adopted. The empirical regional distributions of the parameters in the Partial Duration Series model are used as prior information...

  12. Receiver Test Selection Criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-12

    The DOT requests that GPS manufacturers submit receivers for test in the following TWG categories: - Aviation (non-certified), cellular, general location/navigation, high precision, timing, networks, and space-based receivers - Each receiver should b...

  13. ANUBIS: artificial neuromodulation using a Bayesian inference system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Benjamin J H; Saaj, Chakravarthini M; Allouis, Elie

    2013-01-01

    Gain tuning is a crucial part of controller design and depends not only on an accurate understanding of the system in question, but also on the designer's ability to predict what disturbances and other perturbations the system will encounter throughout its operation. This letter presents ANUBIS (artificial neuromodulation using a Bayesian inference system), a novel biologically inspired technique for automatically tuning controller parameters in real time. ANUBIS is based on the Bayesian brain concept and modifies it by incorporating a model of the neuromodulatory system comprising four artificial neuromodulators. It has been applied to the controller of EchinoBot, a prototype walking rover for Martian exploration. ANUBIS has been implemented at three levels of the controller; gait generation, foot trajectory planning using Bézier curves, and foot trajectory tracking using a terminal sliding mode controller. We compare the results to a similar system that has been tuned using a multilayer perceptron. The use of Bayesian inference means that the system retains mathematical interpretability, unlike other intelligent tuning techniques, which use neural networks, fuzzy logic, or evolutionary algorithms. The simulation results show that ANUBIS provides significant improvements in efficiency and adaptability of the three controller components; it allows the robot to react to obstacles and uncertainties faster than the system tuned with the MLP, while maintaining stability and accuracy. As well as advancing rover autonomy, ANUBIS could also be applied to other situations where operating conditions are likely to change or cannot be accurately modeled in advance, such as process control. In addition, it demonstrates one way in which neuromodulation could fit into the Bayesian brain framework.

  14. Robust bayesian inference of generalized Pareto distribution ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. In this work, robust Bayesian estimation of the generalized Pareto distribution is proposed. The methodology is presented in terms of oscillation of posterior risks of the Bayesian estimators. By using a Monte Carlo simulation study, we show that, under a suitable generalized loss function, we can obtain a robust ...

  15. Bayesian Decision Theoretical Framework for Clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Mo

    2011-01-01

    In this thesis, we establish a novel probabilistic framework for the data clustering problem from the perspective of Bayesian decision theory. The Bayesian decision theory view justifies the important questions: what is a cluster and what a clustering algorithm should optimize. We prove that the spectral clustering (to be specific, the…

  16. Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...

  17. Calibration in a Bayesian modelling framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, M.J.W.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.

    2004-01-01

    Bayesian statistics may constitute the core of a consistent and comprehensive framework for the statistical aspects of modelling complex processes that involve many parameters whose values are derived from many sources. Bayesian statistics holds great promises for model calibration, provides the

  18. Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adam, J.; Adamova, D.; Aggarwal, M. M.; Rinella, G. Aglieri; Agnello, M.; Agrawal, N.; Ahammed, Z.; Ahn, S. U.; Aiola, S.; Akindinov, A.; Alam, S. N.; Albuquerque, D. S. D.; Aleksandrov, D.; Alessandro, B.; Alexandre, D.; Alfaro Molina, R.; Alici, A.; Alkin, A.; Almaraz, J. R. M.; Alme, J.; Alt, T.; Altinpinar, S.; Altsybeev, I.; Alves Garcia Prado, C.; Andrei, C.; Andronic, A.; Anguelov, V.; Anticic, T.; Antinori, F.; Antonioli, P.; Aphecetche, L.; Appelshaeuser, H.; Arcelli, S.; Arnaldi, R.; Arnold, O. W.; Arsene, I. C.; Arslandok, M.; Audurier, B.; Augustinus, A.; Averbeck, R.; Azmi, M. D.; Badala, A.; Baek, Y. W.; Bagnasco, S.; Bailhache, R.; Bala, R.; Balasubramanian, S.; Baldisseri, A.; Baral, R. C.; Barbano, A. M.; Barbera, R.; Barile, F.; Barnafoeldi, G. G.; Barnby, L. S.; Barret, V.; Bartalini, P.; Barth, K.; Bartke, J.; Bartsch, E.; Basile, M.; Bastid, N.; Bathen, B.; Batigne, G.; Camejo, A. Batista; Batyunya, B.; Batzing, P. C.; Bearden, I. G.; Beck, H.; Bedda, C.; Behera, N. K.; Belikov, I.; Bellini, F.; Bello Martinez, H.; Bellwied, R.; Belmont, R.; Belmont-Moreno, E.; Belyaev, V.; Benacek, P.; Bencedi, G.; Beole, S.; Berceanu, I.; Bercuci, A.; Berdnikov, Y.; Berenyi, D.; Bertens, R. A.; Berzano, D.; Betev, L.; Bhasin, A.; Bhat, I. R.; Bhati, A. K.; Bhattacharjee, B.; Bhom, J.; Bianchi, L.; Bianchi, N.; Bianchin, C.; Bielcik, J.; Bielcikova, J.; Bilandzic, A.; Biro, G.; Biswas, R.; Biswas, S.; Bjelogrlic, S.; Blair, J. T.; Blau, D.; Blume, C.; Bock, F.; Bogdanov, A.; Boggild, H.; Boldizsar, L.; Bombara, M.; Book, J.; Borel, H.; Borissov, A.; Borri, M.; Bossu, F.; Botta, E.; Bourjau, C.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Bregant, M.; Breitner, T.; Broker, T. A.; Browning, T. A.; Broz, M.; Brucken, E. J.; Bruna, E.; Bruno, G. E.; Budnikov, D.; Buesching, H.; Bufalino, S.; Buncic, P.; Busch, O.; Buthelezi, Z.; Butt, J. B.; Buxton, J. T.; Cabala, J.; Caffarri, D.; Cai, X.; Caines, H.; Diaz, L. Calero; Caliva, A.; Calvo Villar, E.; Camerini, P.; Carena, F.; Carena, W.; Carnesecchi, F.; Castellanos, J. Castillo; Castro, A. J.; Casula, E. A. R.; Sanchez, C. Ceballos; Cepila, J.; Cerello, P.; Cerkala, J.; Chang, B.; Chapeland, S.; Chartier, M.; Charvet, J. L.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chauvin, A.; Chelnokov, V.; Cherney, M.; Cheshkov, C.; Cheynis, B.; Barroso, V. Chibante; Chinellato, D. D.; Cho, S.; Chochula, P.; Choi, K.; Chojnacki, M.; Choudhury, S.; Christakoglou, P.; Christensen, C. H.; Christiansen, P.; Chujo, T.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Cleymans, J.; Colamaria, F.; Colella, D.; Collu, A.; Colocci, M.; Balbastre, G. Conesa; del Valle, Z. Conesa; Connors, M. E.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormier, T. M.; Morales, Y. Corrales; Cortes Maldonado, I.; Cortese, P.; Cosentino, M. R.; Costa, F.; Crochet, P.; Cruz Albino, R.; Cuautle, E.; Cunqueiro, L.; Dahms, T.; Dainese, A.; Danisch, M. C.; Danu, A.; Das, I.; Das, S.; Dash, A.; Dash, S.; De, S.; De Caro, A.; de Cataldo, G.; de Conti, C.; de Cuveland, J.; De Falco, A.; De Gruttola, D.; De Marco, N.; De Pasquale, S.; Deisting, A.; Deloff, A.; Denes, E.; Deplano, C.; Dhankher, P.; Di Bari, D.; Di Mauro, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Corchero, M. A. Diaz; Dietel, T.; Dillenseger, P.; Divia, R.; Djuvsland, O.; Dobrin, A.; Gimenez, D. Domenicis; Doenigus, B.; Dordic, O.; Drozhzhova, T.; Dubey, A. K.; Dubla, A.; Ducroux, L.; Dupieux, P.; Ehlers, R. J.; Elia, D.; Endress, E.; Engel, H.; Epple, E.; Erazmus, B.; Erdemir, I.; Erhardt, F.; Espagnon, B.; Estienne, M.; Esumi, S.; Eum, J.; Evans, D.; Evdokimov, S.; Eyyubova, G.; Fabbietti, L.; Fabris, D.; Faivre, J.; Fantoni, A.; Fasel, M.; Feldkamp, L.; Feliciello, A.; Feofilov, G.; Ferencei, J.; Fernandez Tellez, A.; Ferreiro, E. G.; Ferretti, A.; Festanti, A.; Feuillard, V. J. G.; Figiel, J.; Figueredo, M. A. S.; Filchagin, S.; Finogeev, D.; Fionda, F. M.; Fiore, E. M.; Fleck, M. G.; Floris, M.; Foertsch, S.; Foka, P.; Fokin, S.; Fragiacomo, E.; Francescon, A.; Frankenfeld, U.; Fronze, G. G.; Fuchs, U.; Furget, C.; Furs, A.; Girard, M. Fusco; Gaardhoje, J. J.; Gagliardi, M.; Gago, A. M.; Gallio, M.; Gangadharan, D. R.; Ganoti, P.; Gao, C.; Garabatos, C.; Garcia-Solis, E.; Gargiulo, C.; Gasik, P.; Gauger, E. F.; Germain, M.; Gheata, A.; Gheata, M.; Gianotti, P.; Giubellino, P.; Giubilato, P.; Gladysz-Dziadus, E.; Glaessel, P.; Gomez Coral, D. M.; Ramirez, A. Gomez; Gonzalez, A. S.; Gonzalez, V.; Gonzalez-Zamora, P.; Gorbunov, S.; Goerlich, L.; Gotovac, S.; Grabski, V.; Grachov, O. A.; Graczykowski, L. K.; Graham, K. L.; Grelli, A.; Grigoras, A.; Grigoras, C.; Grigoriev, V.; Grigoryan, A.; Grigoryan, S.; Grinyov, B.; Grion, N.; Gronefeld, J. M.; Grosse-Oetringhaus, J. F.; Grosso, R.; Guber, F.; Guernane, R.; Guerzoni, B.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gunji, T.; Gupta, A.; Haake, R.; Haaland, O.; Hadjidakis, C.; Haiduc, M.; Hamagaki, H.; Hamar, G.; Hamon, J. C.; Harris, J. W.; Harton, A.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hayashi, S.; Heckel, S. T.; Hellbaer, E.; Helstrup, H.; Herghelegiu, A.; Herrera Corral, G.; Hess, B. A.; Hetland, K. F.; Hillemanns, H.; Hippolyte, B.; Horak, D.; Hosokawa, R.; Hristov, P.; Humanic, T. J.; Hussain, N.; Hussain, T.; Hutter, D.; Hwang, D. S.; Ilkaev, R.; Inaba, M.; Incani, E.; Ippolitov, M.; Irfan, M.; Ivanov, M.; Ivanov, V.; Izucheev, V.; Jacazio, N.; Jadhav, M. B.; Jadlovska, S.; Jadlovsky, J.; Jahnke, C.; Jakubowska, M. J.; Jang, H. J.; Janik, M. A.; Jayarathna, P. H. S. Y.; Jena, C.; Jena, S.; Bustamante, R. T. Jimenez; Jones, P. G.; Jusko, A.; Kalinak, P.; Kalweit, A.; Kamin, J.; Kaplin, V.; Kar, S.; Uysal, A. Karasu; Karavichev, O.; Karavicheva, T.; Karayan, L.; Karpechev, E.; Kebschull, U.; Keidel, R.; Keijdener, D. L. D.; Keil, M.; Khan, M. Mohisin; Khan, P.; Khan, S. A.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kharlov, Y.; Kileng, B.; Kim, D. W.; Kim, D. J.; Kim, D.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, M.; Kim, T.; Kirsch, S.; Kisel, I.; Kiselev, S.; Kisiel, A.; Kiss, G.; Klay, J. L.; Klein, C.; Klein-Boesing, C.; Klewin, S.; Kluge, A.; Knichel, M. L.; Knospe, A. G.; Kobdaj, C.; Kofarago, M.; Kollegger, T.; Kolojvari, A.; Kondratiev, V.; Kondratyeva, N.; Kondratyuk, E.; Konevskikh, A.; Kopcik, M.; Kostarakis, P.; Kour, M.; Kouzinopoulos, C.; Kovalenko, O.; Kovalenko, V.; Kowalski, M.; Meethaleveedu, G. Koyithatta; Kralik, I.; Kravcakova, A.; Krivda, M.; Krizek, F.; Kryshen, E.; Krzewicki, M.; Kubera, A. M.; Kucera, V.; Kuijer, P. G.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kumar, S.; Kurashvili, P.; Kurepin, A.; Kurepin, A. B.; Kuryakin, A.; Kweon, M. J.; Kwon, Y.; La Pointe, S. L.; La Rocca, P.; Ladron de Guevara, P.; Lagana Fernandes, C.; Lakomov, I.; Langoy, R.; Lara, C.; Lardeux, A.; Lattuca, A.; Laudi, E.; Lea, R.; Leardini, L.; Lee, G. R.; Lee, S.; Lehas, F.; Lemmon, R. C.; Lenti, V.; Leogrande, E.; Monzon, I. Leon; Leon Vargas, H.; Leoncino, M.; Levai, P.; Lien, J.; Lietava, R.; Lindal, S.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lippmann, C.; Lisa, M. A.; Ljunggren, H. M.; Lodato, D. F.; Loenne, P. I.; Loginov, V.; Loizides, C.; Lopez, X.; Torres, E. Lopez; Lowe, A.; Luettig, P.; Lunardon, M.; Luparello, G.; Lutz, T. H.; Maevskaya, A.; Mager, M.; Mahajan, S.; Mahmood, S. M.; Maire, A.; Majka, R. D.; Malaev, M.; Maldonado Cervantes, I.; Malinina, L.; Mal'Kevich, D.; Malzacher, P.; Mamonov, A.; Manko, V.; Manso, F.; Manzari, V.; Marchisone, M.; Mares, J.; Margagliotti, G. V.; Margotti, A.; Margutti, J.; Marin, A.; Markert, C.; Marquard, M.; Martin, N. A.; Blanco, J. Martin; Martinengo, P.; Martinez, M. I.; Garcia, G. Martinez; Pedreira, M. Martinez; Mas, A.; Masciocchi, S.; Masera, M.; Masoni, A.; Mastroserio, A.; Matyja, A.; Mayer, C.; Mazer, J.; Mazzoni, M. A.; Mcdonald, D.; Meddi, F.; Melikyan, Y.; Menchaca-Rocha, A.; Meninno, E.; Perez, J. Mercado; Meres, M.; Miake, Y.; Mieskolainen, M. M.; Mikhaylov, K.; Milano, L.; Milosevic, J.; Mischke, A.; Mishra, A. N.; Miskowiec, D.; Mitra, J.; Mitu, C. M.; Mohammadi, N.; Mohanty, B.; Molnar, L.; Montano Zetina, L.; Montes, E.; De Godoy, D. A. Moreira; Moreno, L. A. P.; Moretto, S.; Morreale, A.; Morsch, A.; Muccifora, V.; Mudnic, E.; Muehlheim, D.; Muhuri, S.; Mukherjee, M.; Mulligan, J. D.; Munhoz, M. G.; Munzer, R. H.; Murakami, H.; Murray, S.; Musa, L.; Musinsky, J.; Naik, B.; Nair, R.; Nandi, B. K.; Nania, R.; Nappi, E.; Naru, M. U.; Natal da Luz, H.; Nattrass, C.; Navarro, S. R.; Nayak, K.; Nayak, R.; Nayak, T. K.; Nazarenko, S.; Nedosekin, A.; Nellen, L.; Ng, F.; Nicassio, M.; Niculescu, M.; Niedziela, J.; Nielsen, B. S.; Nikolaev, S.; Nikulin, S.; Nikulin, V.; Noferini, F.; Nomokonov, P.; Nooren, G.; Noris, J. C. C.; Norman, J.; Nyanin, A.; Nystrand, J.; Oeschler, H.; Oh, S.; Oh, S. K.; Ohlson, A.; Okatan, A.; Okubo, T.; Olah, L.; Oleniacz, J.; Oliveira Da Silva, A. C.; Oliver, M. H.; Onderwaater, J.; Oppedisano, C.; Orava, R.; Oravec, M.; Ortiz Velasquez, A.; Oskarsson, A.; Otwinowski, J.; Oyama, K.; Ozdemir, M.; Pachmayer, Y.; Pagano, D.; Pagano, P.; Paic, G.; Pal, S. K.; Pan, J.; Papikyan, V.; Pappalardo, G. S.; Pareek, P.; Park, W. J.; Parmar, S.; Passfeld, A.; Paticchio, V.; Patra, R. N.; Paul, B.; Pei, H.; Peitzmann, T.; Da Costa, H. Pereira; Peresunko, D.; Lara, C. E. Perez; Lezama, E. Perez; Peskov, V.; Pestov, Y.; Petracek, V.; Petrov, V.; Petrovici, M.; Petta, C.; Piano, S.; Pikna, M.; Pillot, P.; Pimentel, L. O. D. L.; Pinazza, O.; Pinsky, L.; Piyarathna, D. B.; Ploskon, M.; Planinic, M.; Pluta, J.; Pochybova, S.; Podesta-Lerma, P. L. M.; Poghosyan, M. G.; Polichtchouk, B.; Poljak, N.; Poonsawat, W.; Pop, A.; Porteboeuf-Houssais, S.; Porter, J.; Pospisil, J.; Prasad, S. K.; Preghenella, R.; Prino, F.; Pruneau, C. A.; Pshenichnov, I.; Puccio, M.; Puddu, G.; Pujahari, P.; Punin, V.; Putschke, J.; Qvigstad, H.; Rachevski, A.; Raha, S.; Rajput, S.; Rak, J.; Rakotozafindrabe, A.; Ramello, L.; Rami, F.; Raniwala, R.; Raniwala, S.; Raesaenen, S. S.; Rascanu, B. T.; Rathee, D.; Read, K. F.; Redlich, K.; Reed, R. J.; Reichelt, P.; Reidt, F.; Ren, X.; Renfordt, R.; Reolon, A. R.; Reshetin, A.; Reygers, K.; Riabov, V.; Ricci, R. A.; Richert, T.; Richter, M.; Riedler, P.; Riegler, W.; Riggi, F.; Ristea, C.; Rocco, E.; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, M.; Manso, A. Rodriguez; Roed, K.; Rogochaya, E.; Rohr, D.; Roehrich, D.; Ronchetti, F.; Ronflette, L.; Rosnet, P.; Rossi, A.; Roukoutakis, F.; Roy, A.; Roy, C.; Roy, P.; Montero, A. J. Rubio; Rui, R.; Russo, R.; Ryabinkin, E.; Ryabov, Y.; Rybicki, A.; Saarinen, S.; Sadhu, S.; Sadovsky, S.; Safarik, K.; Sahlmuller, B.; Sahoo, P.; Sahoo, R.; Sahoo, S.; Sahu, P. K.; Saini, J.; Sakai, S.; Saleh, M. A.; Salzwedel, J.; Sambyal, S.; Samsonov, V.; Sandor, L.; Sandoval, A.; Sano, M.; Sarkar, D.; Sarkar, N.; Sarma, P.; Scapparone, E.; Scarlassara, F.; Schiaua, C.; Schicker, R.; Schmidt, C.; Schmidt, H. R.; Schuchmann, S.; Schukraft, J.; Schulc, M.; Schutz, Y.; Schwarz, K.; Schweda, K.; Scioli, G.; Scomparin, E.; Scott, R.; Sefcik, M.; Seger, J. E.; Sekiguchi, Y.; Sekihata, D.; Selyuzhenkov, I.; Senosi, K.; Senyukov, S.; Serradilla, E.; Sevcenco, A.; Shabanov, A.; Shabetai, A.; Shadura, O.; Shahoyan, R.; Shahzad, M. I.; Shangaraev, A.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, N.; Sheikh, A. I.; Shigaki, K.; Shou, Q.; Shtejer, K.; Sibiriak, Y.; Siddhanta, S.; Sielewicz, K. M.; Siemiarczuk, T.; Silvermyr, D.; Silvestre, C.; Simatovic, G.; Simonetti, G.; Singaraju, R.; Singh, R.; Singha, S.; Singhal, V.; Sinha, B. C.; Sinha, T.; Sitar, B.; Sitta, M.; Skaali, T. B.; Slupecki, M.; Smirnov, N.; Snellings, R. J. M.; Snellman, T. W.; Song, J.; Song, M.; Song, Z.; Soramel, F.; Sorensen, S.; de Souza, R. D.; Sozzi, F.; Spacek, M.; Spiriti, E.; Sputowska, I.; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, M.; Stachel, J.; Stan, I.; Stankus, P.; Stenlund, E.; Steyn, G.; Stiller, J. H.; Stocco, D.; Strmen, P.; Suaide, A. A. P.; Sugitate, T.; Suire, C.; Suleymanov, M.; Suljic, M.; Sultanov, R.; Sumbera, M.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Szabo, A.; Szanto de Toledo, A.; Szarka, I.; Szczepankiewicz, A.; Szymanski, M.; Tabassam, U.; Takahashi, J.; Tambave, G. J.; Tanaka, N.; Tarhini, M.; Tariq, M.; Tarzila, M. G.; Tauro, A.; Tejeda Munoz, G.; Telesca, A.; Terasaki, K.; Terrevoli, C.; Teyssier, B.; Thaeder, J.; Thakur, D.; Thomas, D.; Tieulent, R.; Timmins, A. R.; Toia, A.; Trogolo, S.; Trombetta, G.; Trubnikov, V.; Trzaska, W. H.; Tsuji, T.; Tumkin, A.; Turrisi, R.; Tveter, T. S.; Ullaland, K.; Uras, A.; Usai, G. L.; Utrobicic, A.; Vala, M.; Palomo, L. Valencia; Vallero, S.; Van Der Maarel, J.; Van Hoorne, J. W.; van Leeuwen, M.; Vanat, T.; Vyvre, P. Vande; Varga, D.; Vargas, A.; Vargyas, M.; Varma, R.; Vasileiou, M.; Vasiliev, A.; Vauthier, A.; Vechernin, V.; Veen, A. M.; Veldhoen, M.; Velure, A.; Vercellin, E.; Vergara Limon, S.; Vernet, R.; Verweij, M.; Vickovic, L.; Viesti, G.; Viinikainen, J.; Vilakazi, Z.; Baillie, O. Villalobos; Villatoro Tello, A.; Vinogradov, A.; Vinogradov, L.; Vinogradov, Y.; Virgili, T.; Vislavicius, V.; Viyogi, Y. P.; Vodopyanov, A.; Voelkl, M. A.; Voloshin, K.; Voloshin, S. A.; Volpe, G.; von Haller, B.; Vorobyev, I.; Vranic, D.; Vrlakova, J.; Vulpescu, B.; Wagner, B.; Wagner, J.; Wang, H.; Watanabe, D.; Watanabe, Y.; Weiser, D. F.; Westerhoff, U.; Whitehead, A. M.; Wiechula, J.; Wikne, J.; Wilk, G.; Wilkinson, J.; Williams, M. C. S.; Windelband, B.; Winn, M.; Yang, H.; Yano, S.; Yasin, Z.; Yokoyama, H.; Yoo, I. -K.; Yoon, J. H.; Yurchenko, V.; Yushmanov, I.; Zaborowska, A.; Zaccolo, V.; Zaman, A.; Zampolli, C.; Zanoli, H. J. C.; Zaporozhets, S.; Zardoshti, N.; Zarochentsev, A.; Zavada, P.; Zaviyalov, N.; Zbroszczyk, H.; Zgura, I. S.; Zhalov, M.; Zhang, C.; Zhao, C.; Zhigareva, N.; Zhou, Y.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, H.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, A.; Zimmermann, M. B.; Zinovjev, G.; Zyzak, M.; Collaboration, ALICE

    2016-01-01

    We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian

  19. Bayesian Network for multiple hypthesis tracking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zajdel, W.P.; Kröse, B.J.A.; Blockeel, H.; Denecker, M.

    2002-01-01

    For a flexible camera-to-camera tracking of multiple objects we model the objects behavior with a Bayesian network and combine it with the multiple hypohesis framework that associates observations with objects. Bayesian networks offer a possibility to factor complex, joint distributions into a

  20. Properties of the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Sande, Brett

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian Knowledge Tracing is used very widely to model student learning. It comes in two different forms: The first form is the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing "hidden Markov model" which predicts the probability of correct application of a skill as a function of the number of previous opportunities to apply that skill and the model…

  1. Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner

    2003-01-01

    and secondly, to gain efficiency during modification of an object oriented Bayesian network. To accomplish these two goals we have exploited a mechanism allowing local triangulation of instances to develop a method for updating the junction trees associated with object oriented Bayesian networks in highly...

  2. Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

  3. Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

  4. Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego

    2007-01-01

    This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

  5. Exatidão de posicionamento de um receptor GPS, operando sob diferentes coberturas vegetais Evaluation of the accuracy of positioning a GPS receiver operating under different vegetation covers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rubens Angulo Filho

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Para avaliar a exatidão de posicionamento planimétrico do receptor GPS Trimble/Pro-XL, operando sob diferentes condições de cobertura vegetal (pastagem, seringueira, eucalipto e pinus, o equipamento foi posicionado alternadamente sobre 6 pontos, locados ao acaso nas áreas de estudo, variando o tempo de permanência (1 , 5 e 10 min mas com a mesma taxa de aquisição de dados (1 s fazendo-se, posteriormente, a correção diferencial (DGPS pós-processada dos dados. Os pontos também tiveram suas coordenadas levantadas pelo método topográfico, segundo a NBR 13133 - Execução de Levantamento Topográfico, para fins de comparação. De acordo com o método empregado e os resultados obtidos, foi possível separar as exatidões de posicionamento planimétrico, conforme o tipo de cobertura vegetal, em dois grupos: sem e com cobertura arbórea confirmando, assim, a interferência do dossel na recepção dos sinais emitidos pelos satélites GPS. O aumento do tempo de permanência melhorou a exatidão de posicionamento planimétrico, o que ratifica a escolha da metodologia de levantamento como sendo fundamental para a obtenção de bons resultados de posicionamento.To evaluate planimetric positioning accuracy of a GPS receiver (Trimble/Pro-XL, operating under different conditions of vegetation cover (pasture, rubber trees, eucalyptus and pine trees, 6 control points were located randomly in the study area. For comparison, their coordinates were first obtained by a conventional surveying method, according to NBR 13133 of Brazilian Surveying Standards. Afterwards, the GPS receiver was positioned on those control points, maintaining the acquisition rate of 1 s while changing the time for 1, 5 and 10 min, the DGPS method was used to correct the positioning coordinate data. According to the methodology applied and the results obtained, it was possible to distinguish planimetric positioning accuracy, according to the vegetation cover, in two groups

  6. Flexible Bayesian Human Fecundity Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sungduk; Sundaram, Rajeshwari; Buck Louis, Germaine M; Pyper, Cecilia

    2012-12-01

    Human fecundity is an issue of considerable interest for both epidemiological and clinical audiences, and is dependent upon a couple's biologic capacity for reproduction coupled with behaviors that place a couple at risk for pregnancy. Bayesian hierarchical models have been proposed to better model the conception probabilities by accounting for the acts of intercourse around the day of ovulation, i.e., during the fertile window. These models can be viewed in the framework of a generalized nonlinear model with an exponential link. However, a fixed choice of link function may not always provide the best fit, leading to potentially biased estimates for probability of conception. Motivated by this, we propose a general class of models for fecundity by relaxing the choice of the link function under the generalized nonlinear model framework. We use a sample from the Oxford Conception Study (OCS) to illustrate the utility and fit of this general class of models for estimating human conception. Our findings reinforce the need for attention to be paid to the choice of link function in modeling conception, as it may bias the estimation of conception probabilities. Various properties of the proposed models are examined and a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm was developed for implementing the Bayesian computations. The deviance information criterion measure and logarithm of pseudo marginal likelihood are used for guiding the choice of links. The supplemental material section contains technical details of the proof of the theorem stated in the paper, and contains further simulation results and analysis.

  7. Bayesian Nonparametric Longitudinal Data Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintana, Fernando A; Johnson, Wesley O; Waetjen, Elaine; Gold, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    Practical Bayesian nonparametric methods have been developed across a wide variety of contexts. Here, we develop a novel statistical model that generalizes standard mixed models for longitudinal data that include flexible mean functions as well as combined compound symmetry (CS) and autoregressive (AR) covariance structures. AR structure is often specified through the use of a Gaussian process (GP) with covariance functions that allow longitudinal data to be more correlated if they are observed closer in time than if they are observed farther apart. We allow for AR structure by considering a broader class of models that incorporates a Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) over the covariance parameters of the GP. We are able to take advantage of modern Bayesian statistical methods in making full predictive inferences and about characteristics of longitudinal profiles and their differences across covariate combinations. We also take advantage of the generality of our model, which provides for estimation of a variety of covariance structures. We observe that models that fail to incorporate CS or AR structure can result in very poor estimation of a covariance or correlation matrix. In our illustration using hormone data observed on women through the menopausal transition, biology dictates the use of a generalized family of sigmoid functions as a model for time trends across subpopulation categories.

  8. BELM: Bayesian extreme learning machine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soria-Olivas, Emilio; Gómez-Sanchis, Juan; Martín, José D; Vila-Francés, Joan; Martínez, Marcelino; Magdalena, José R; Serrano, Antonio J

    2011-03-01

    The theory of extreme learning machine (ELM) has become very popular on the last few years. ELM is a new approach for learning the parameters of the hidden layers of a multilayer neural network (as the multilayer perceptron or the radial basis function neural network). Its main advantage is the lower computational cost, which is especially relevant when dealing with many patterns defined in a high-dimensional space. This brief proposes a bayesian approach to ELM, which presents some advantages over other approaches: it allows the introduction of a priori knowledge; obtains the confidence intervals (CIs) without the need of applying methods that are computationally intensive, e.g., bootstrap; and presents high generalization capabilities. Bayesian ELM is benchmarked against classical ELM in several artificial and real datasets that are widely used for the evaluation of machine learning algorithms. Achieved results show that the proposed approach produces a competitive accuracy with some additional advantages, namely, automatic production of CIs, reduction of probability of model overfitting, and use of a priori knowledge.

  9. 2nd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

    CERN Document Server

    Bitto, Angela; Kastner, Gregor; Posekany, Alexandra

    2015-01-01

    The Second Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (BAYSM 2014) and the research presented here facilitate connections among researchers using Bayesian Statistics by providing a forum for the development and exchange of ideas. WU Vienna University of Business and Economics hosted BAYSM 2014 from September 18th to 19th. The guidance of renowned plenary lecturers and senior discussants is a critical part of the meeting and this volume, which follows publication of contributions from BAYSM 2013. The meeting's scientific program reflected the variety of fields in which Bayesian methods are currently employed or could be introduced in the future. Three brilliant keynote lectures by Chris Holmes (University of Oxford), Christian Robert (Université Paris-Dauphine), and Mike West (Duke University), were complemented by 24 plenary talks covering the major topics Dynamic Models, Applications, Bayesian Nonparametrics, Biostatistics, Bayesian Methods in Economics, and Models and Methods, as well as a lively poster session ...

  10. Bayesian natural language semantics and pragmatics

    CERN Document Server

    Zeevat, Henk

    2015-01-01

    The contributions in this volume focus on the Bayesian interpretation of natural languages, which is widely used in areas of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and computational linguistics. This is the first volume to take up topics in Bayesian Natural Language Interpretation and make proposals based on information theory, probability theory, and related fields. The methodologies offered here extend to the target semantic and pragmatic analyses of computational natural language interpretation. Bayesian approaches to natural language semantics and pragmatics are based on methods from signal processing and the causal Bayesian models pioneered by especially Pearl. In signal processing, the Bayesian method finds the most probable interpretation by finding the one that maximizes the product of the prior probability and the likelihood of the interpretation. It thus stresses the importance of a production model for interpretation as in Grice's contributions to pragmatics or in interpretation by abduction.

  11. Crystal structure prediction accelerated by Bayesian optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Tomoki; Sato, Nobuya; Kino, Hiori; Miyake, Takashi; Tsuda, Koji; Oguchi, Tamio

    2018-01-01

    We propose a crystal structure prediction method based on Bayesian optimization. Our method is classified as a selection-type algorithm which is different from evolution-type algorithms such as an evolutionary algorithm and particle swarm optimization. Crystal structure prediction with Bayesian optimization can efficiently select the most stable structure from a large number of candidate structures with a lower number of searching trials using a machine learning technique. Crystal structure prediction using Bayesian optimization combined with random search is applied to known systems such as NaCl and Y2Co17 to discuss the efficiency of Bayesian optimization. These results demonstrate that Bayesian optimization can significantly reduce the number of searching trials required to find the global minimum structure by 30-40% in comparison with pure random search, which leads to much less computational cost.

  12. Assessment of Breast Cancer Risk in an Iranian Female Population Using Bayesian Networks with Varying Node Number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaianzadeh, Abbas; Sepandi, Mojtaba; Rahimikazerooni, Salar

    2016-11-01

    Objective: As a source of information, medical data can feature hidden relationships. However, the high volume of datasets and complexity of decision-making in medicine introduce difficulties for analysis and interpretation and processing steps may be needed before the data can be used by clinicians in their work. This study focused on the use of Bayesian models with different numbers of nodes to aid clinicians in breast cancer risk estimation. Methods: Bayesian networks (BNs) with a retrospectively collected dataset including mammographic details, risk factor exposure, and clinical findings was assessed for prediction of the probability of breast cancer in individual patients. Area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were used to evaluate discriminative performance. Result: A network incorporating selected features performed better (AUC = 0.94) than that incorporating all the features (AUC = 0.93). The results revealed no significant difference among 3 models regarding performance indices at the 5% significance level. Conclusion: BNs could effectively discriminate malignant from benign abnormalities and accurately predict the risk of breast cancer in individuals. Moreover, the overall performance of the 9-node BN was better, and due to the lower number of nodes it might be more readily be applied in clinical settings. Creative Commons Attribution License

  13. Sparse-grid, reduced-basis Bayesian inversion: Nonaffine-parametric nonlinear equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Peng; Schwab, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    We extend the reduced basis (RB) accelerated Bayesian inversion methods for affine-parametric, linear operator equations which are considered in [16,17] to non-affine, nonlinear parametric operator equations. We generalize the analysis of sparsity of parametric forward solution maps in [20] and of Bayesian inversion in [48,49] to the fully discrete setting, including Petrov–Galerkin high-fidelity (“HiFi”) discretization of the forward maps. We develop adaptive, stochastic collocation based reduction methods for the efficient computation of reduced bases on the parametric solution manifold. The nonaffinity and nonlinearity with respect to (w.r.t.) the distributed, uncertain parameters and the unknown solution is collocated; specifically, by the so-called Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM). For the corresponding Bayesian inversion problems, computational efficiency is enhanced in two ways: first, expectations w.r.t. the posterior are computed by adaptive quadratures with dimension-independent convergence rates proposed in [49]; the present work generalizes [49] to account for the impact of the PG discretization in the forward maps on the convergence rates of the Quantities of Interest (QoI for short). Second, we propose to perform the Bayesian estimation only w.r.t. a parsimonious, RB approximation of the posterior density. Based on the approximation results in [49], the infinite-dimensional parametric, deterministic forward map and operator admit N-term RB and EIM approximations which converge at rates which depend only on the sparsity of the parametric forward map. In several numerical experiments, the proposed algorithms exhibit dimension-independent convergence rates which equal, at least, the currently known rate estimates for N-term approximation. We propose to accelerate Bayesian estimation by first offline construction of reduced basis surrogates of the Bayesian posterior density. The parsimonious surrogates can then be employed for online data

  14. Bayesian Action&Perception: Representing the World in the Brain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald E. Loeb

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Theories of perception seek to explain how sensory data are processed to identify previously experienced objects, but they usually do not consider the decisions and effort that goes into acquiring the sensory data. Identification of objects according to their tactile properties requires active exploratory movements. The sensory data thereby obtained depend on the details of those movements, which human subjects change rapidly and seemingly capriciously. Bayesian Exploration is an algorithm that uses prior experience to decide which next exploratory movement should provide the most useful data to disambiguate the most likely possibilities. In previous studies, a simple robot equipped with a biomimetic tactile sensor and operated according to Bayesian Exploration performed in a manner similar to and actually better than humans on a texture identification task. Expanding on this, Bayesian Action&Perception refers to the construction and querying of an associative memory of previously experienced entities containing both sensory data and the motor programs that elicited them. We hypothesize that this memory can be queried i to identify useful next exploratory movements during identification of an unknown entity (action for perception or ii to characterize whether an unknown entity is fit for purpose (perception for action or iii to recall what actions might be feasible for a known entity (Gibsonian affordance. The biomimetic design of this mechatronic system may provide insights into the neuronal basis of biological action and perception.

  15. Bayesian action&perception: representing the world in the brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeb, Gerald E; Fishel, Jeremy A

    2014-01-01

    Theories of perception seek to explain how sensory data are processed to identify previously experienced objects, but they usually do not consider the decisions and effort that goes into acquiring the sensory data. Identification of objects according to their tactile properties requires active exploratory movements. The sensory data thereby obtained depend on the details of those movements, which human subjects change rapidly and seemingly capriciously. Bayesian Exploration is an algorithm that uses prior experience to decide which next exploratory movement should provide the most useful data to disambiguate the most likely possibilities. In previous studies, a simple robot equipped with a biomimetic tactile sensor and operated according to Bayesian Exploration performed in a manner similar to and actually better than humans on a texture identification task. Expanding on this, "Bayesian Action&Perception" refers to the construction and querying of an associative memory of previously experienced entities containing both sensory data and the motor programs that elicited them. We hypothesize that this memory can be queried (i) to identify useful next exploratory movements during identification of an unknown entity ("action for perception") or (ii) to characterize whether an unknown entity is fit for purpose ("perception for action") or (iii) to recall what actions might be feasible for a known entity (Gibsonian affordance). The biomimetic design of this mechatronic system may provide insights into the neuronal basis of biological action and perception.

  16. Bayesian Approach to Inverse Problems

    CERN Document Server

    2008-01-01

    Many scientific, medical or engineering problems raise the issue of recovering some physical quantities from indirect measurements; for instance, detecting or quantifying flaws or cracks within a material from acoustic or electromagnetic measurements at its surface is an essential problem of non-destructive evaluation. The concept of inverse problems precisely originates from the idea of inverting the laws of physics to recover a quantity of interest from measurable data.Unfortunately, most inverse problems are ill-posed, which means that precise and stable solutions are not easy to devise. Regularization is the key concept to solve inverse problems.The goal of this book is to deal with inverse problems and regularized solutions using the Bayesian statistical tools, with a particular view to signal and image estimation

  17. Bayesian modelling of fusion diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, R.; Dinklage, A.; Pasch, E.

    2003-07-01

    Integrated data analysis of fusion diagnostics is the combination of different, heterogeneous diagnostics in order to improve physics knowledge and reduce the uncertainties of results. One example is the validation of profiles of plasma quantities. Integration of different diagnostics requires systematic and formalized error analysis for all uncertainties involved. The Bayesian probability theory (BPT) allows a systematic combination of all information entering the measurement descriptive model that considers all uncertainties of the measured data, calibration measurements, physical model parameters and measurement nuisance parameters. A sensitivity analysis of model parameters allows crucial uncertainties to be found, which has an impact on both diagnostic improvement and design. The systematic statistical modelling within the BPT is used for reconstructing electron density and electron temperature profiles from Thomson scattering data from the Wendelstein 7-AS stellarator. The inclusion of different diagnostics and first-principle information is discussed in terms of improvements.

  18. Bayesian networks in educational assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Almond, Russell G; Steinberg, Linda S; Yan, Duanli; Williamson, David M

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian inference networks, a synthesis of statistics and expert systems, have advanced reasoning under uncertainty in medicine, business, and social sciences. This innovative volume is the first comprehensive treatment exploring how they can be applied to design and analyze innovative educational assessments. Part I develops Bayes nets’ foundations in assessment, statistics, and graph theory, and works through the real-time updating algorithm. Part II addresses parametric forms for use with assessment, model-checking techniques, and estimation with the EM algorithm and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A unique feature is the volume’s grounding in Evidence-Centered Design (ECD) framework for assessment design. This “design forward” approach enables designers to take full advantage of Bayes nets’ modularity and ability to model complex evidentiary relationships that arise from performance in interactive, technology-rich assessments such as simulations. Part III describes ECD, situates Bayes nets as ...

  19. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

    Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...... sections, in addition to fully-updated examples, tables, figures, and a revised appendix. Intended primarily for practitioners, this book does not require sophisticated mathematical skills or deep understanding of the underlying theory and methods nor does it discuss alternative technologies for reasoning...... under uncertainty. The theory and methods presented are illustrated through more than 140 examples, and exercises are included for the reader to check his or her level of understanding. The techniques and methods presented on model construction and verification, modeling techniques and tricks, learning...

  20. Nonparametric Bayesian inference in biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter

    2015-01-01

    As chapters in this book demonstrate, BNP has important uses in clinical sciences and inference for issues like unknown partitions in genomics. Nonparametric Bayesian approaches (BNP) play an ever expanding role in biostatistical inference from use in proteomics to clinical trials. Many research problems involve an abundance of data and require flexible and complex probability models beyond the traditional parametric approaches. As this book's expert contributors show, BNP approaches can be the answer. Survival Analysis, in particular survival regression, has traditionally used BNP, but BNP's potential is now very broad. This applies to important tasks like arrangement of patients into clinically meaningful subpopulations and segmenting the genome into functionally distinct regions. This book is designed to both review and introduce application areas for BNP. While existing books provide theoretical foundations, this book connects theory to practice through engaging examples and research questions. Chapters c...

  1. Bayesian Kernel Mixtures for Counts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canale, Antonio; Dunson, David B

    2011-12-01

    Although Bayesian nonparametric mixture models for continuous data are well developed, there is a limited literature on related approaches for count data. A common strategy is to use a mixture of Poissons, which unfortunately is quite restrictive in not accounting for distributions having variance less than the mean. Other approaches include mixing multinomials, which requires finite support, and using a Dirichlet process prior with a Poisson base measure, which does not allow smooth deviations from the Poisson. As a broad class of alternative models, we propose to use nonparametric mixtures of rounded continuous kernels. An efficient Gibbs sampler is developed for posterior computation, and a simulation study is performed to assess performance. Focusing on the rounded Gaussian case, we generalize the modeling framework to account for multivariate count data, joint modeling with continuous and categorical variables, and other complications. The methods are illustrated through applications to a developmental toxicity study and marketing data. This article has supplementary material online.

  2. A Bayesian Reflection on Surfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David R. Wolf

    1999-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: The topic of this paper is a novel Bayesian continuous-basis field representation and inference framework. Within this paper several problems are solved: The maximally informative inference of continuous-basis fields, that is where the basis for the field is itself a continuous object and not representable in a finite manner; the tradeoff between accuracy of representation in terms of information learned, and memory or storage capacity in bits; the approximation of probability distributions so that a maximal amount of information about the object being inferred is preserved; an information theoretic justification for multigrid methodology. The maximally informative field inference framework is described in full generality and denoted the Generalized Kalman Filter. The Generalized Kalman Filter allows the update of field knowledge from previous knowledge at any scale, and new data, to new knowledge at any other scale. An application example instance, the inference of continuous surfaces from measurements (for example, camera image data, is presented.

  3. Likelihood-free inference of population structure and local adaptation in a Bayesian hierarchical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazin, Eric; Dawson, Kevin J; Beaumont, Mark A

    2010-06-01

    ABC to Bayesian hierarchical models, and we apply it to detect microsatellite loci influenced by local selection. We demonstrate using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis that this approach has comparable performance to a full-likelihood method and outperforms it when mutation rates are variable across loci.

  4. A unifying probabilistic Bayesian approach to derive electron density from MRI for radiation therapy treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gudur, Madhu Sudhan Reddy; Hara, Wendy; Le, Quynh-Thu; Wang, Lei; Xing, Lei; Li, Ruijiang

    2014-01-01

    MRI significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of target delineation in radiation therapy for certain tumors due to its superior soft tissue contrast compared to CT. A treatment planning process with MRI as the sole imaging modality will eliminate systematic CT/MRI co-registration errors, reduce cost and radiation exposure, and simplify clinical workflow. However, MRI lacks the key electron density information necessary for accurate dose calculation and generating reference images for patient setup. The purpose of this work is to develop a unifying method to derive electron density from standard T1-weighted MRI. We propose to combine both intensity and geometry information into a unifying probabilistic Bayesian framework for electron density mapping. For each voxel, we compute two conditional probability density functions (PDFs) of electron density given its: (1) T1-weighted MRI intensity, and (2) geometry in a reference anatomy, obtained by deformable image registration between the MRI of the atlas and test patient. The two conditional PDFs containing intensity and geometry information are combined into a unifying posterior PDF, whose mean value corresponds to the optimal electron density value under the mean-square error criterion. We evaluated the algorithm’s accuracy of electron density mapping and its ability to detect bone in the head for eight patients, using an additional patient as the atlas or template. Mean absolute HU error between the estimated and true CT, as well as receiver operating characteristics for bone detection (HU > 200) were calculated. The performance was compared with a global intensity approach based on T1 and no density correction (set whole head to water). The proposed technique significantly reduced the errors in electron density estimation, with a mean absolute HU error of 126, compared with 139 for deformable registration (p = 2  ×  10 −4 ), 283 for the intensity approach (p = 2  ×  10 −6 ) and 282

  5. A unifying probabilistic Bayesian approach to derive electron density from MRI for radiation therapy treatment planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudhan Reddy Gudur, Madhu; Hara, Wendy; Le, Quynh-Thu; Wang, Lei; Xing, Lei; Li, Ruijiang

    2014-11-01

    MRI significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of target delineation in radiation therapy for certain tumors due to its superior soft tissue contrast compared to CT. A treatment planning process with MRI as the sole imaging modality will eliminate systematic CT/MRI co-registration errors, reduce cost and radiation exposure, and simplify clinical workflow. However, MRI lacks the key electron density information necessary for accurate dose calculation and generating reference images for patient setup. The purpose of this work is to develop a unifying method to derive electron density from standard T1-weighted MRI. We propose to combine both intensity and geometry information into a unifying probabilistic Bayesian framework for electron density mapping. For each voxel, we compute two conditional probability density functions (PDFs) of electron density given its: (1) T1-weighted MRI intensity, and (2) geometry in a reference anatomy, obtained by deformable image registration between the MRI of the atlas and test patient. The two conditional PDFs containing intensity and geometry information are combined into a unifying posterior PDF, whose mean value corresponds to the optimal electron density value under the mean-square error criterion. We evaluated the algorithm’s accuracy of electron density mapping and its ability to detect bone in the head for eight patients, using an additional patient as the atlas or template. Mean absolute HU error between the estimated and true CT, as well as receiver operating characteristics for bone detection (HU > 200) were calculated. The performance was compared with a global intensity approach based on T1 and no density correction (set whole head to water). The proposed technique significantly reduced the errors in electron density estimation, with a mean absolute HU error of 126, compared with 139 for deformable registration (p = 2  ×  10-4), 283 for the intensity approach (p = 2  ×  10-6) and 282 without density

  6. Predicting land cover using GIS, Bayesian and evolutionary algorithm methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitkenhead, M J; Aalders, I H

    2009-01-01

    Modelling land cover change from existing land cover maps is a vital requirement for anyone wishing to understand how the landscape may change in the future. In order to test any land cover change model, existing data must be used. However, often it is not known which data should be applied to the problem, or whether relationships exist within and between complex datasets. Here we have developed and tested a model that applied evolutionary processes to Bayesian networks. The model was developed and tested on a dataset containing land cover information and environmental data, in order to show that decisions about which datasets should be used could be made automatically. Bayesian networks are amenable to evolutionary methods as they can be easily described using a binary string to which crossover and mutation operations can be applied. The method, developed to allow comparison with standard Bayesian network development software, was proved capable of carrying out a rapid and effective search of the space of possible networks in order to find an optimal or near-optimal solution for the selection of datasets that have causal links with one another. Comparison of land cover mapping in the North-East of Scotland was made with a commercial Bayesian software package, with the evolutionary method being shown to provide greater flexibility in its ability to adapt to incorporate/utilise available evidence/knowledge and develop effective and accurate network structures, at the cost of requiring additional computer programming skills. The dataset used to develop the models included GIS-based data taken from the Land Cover for Scotland 1988 (LCS88), Land Capability for Forestry (LCF), Land Capability for Agriculture (LCA), the soil map of Scotland and additional climatic variables.

  7. 29 CFR 1917.155 - Air receivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    .... This section applies to compressed air receivers and equipment used for operations such as cleaning... transportation applications as railways, vehicles or cranes. (b) Gauges and valves. (1) Air receivers shall be... 29 Labor 7 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Air receivers. 1917.155 Section 1917.155 Labor Regulations...

  8. 49 CFR 393.88 - Television receivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Television receivers. 393.88 Section 393.88... NECESSARY FOR SAFE OPERATION Miscellaneous Parts and Accessories § 393.88 Television receivers. Any motor vehicle equipped with a television viewer, screen or other means of visually receiving a television...

  9. Robust bayesian analysis of an autoregressive model with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this work, robust Bayesian analysis of the Bayesian estimation of an autoregressive model with exponential innovations is performed. Using a Bayesian robustness methodology, we show that, using a suitable generalized quadratic loss, we obtain optimal Bayesian estimators of the parameters corresponding to the ...

  10. Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists

    CERN Document Server

    Hobbs, N Thompson

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili

  11. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

    2006-01-01

    We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...... by evaluating and differentiating these circuits in time linear in their size. We report on experimental results showing successful compilation and efficient inference on relational Bayesian networks, whose PRIMULA--generated propositional instances have thousands of variables, and whose jointrees have clusters...

  12. MACROECONOMIC FORECASTING USING BAYESIAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Tutberidze

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available There are many arguments that can be advanced to support the forecasting activities of business entities. The underlying argument in favor of forecasting is that managerial decisions are significantly dependent on proper evaluation of future trends as market conditions are constantly changing and require a detailed analysis of future dynamics. The article discusses the importance of using reasonable macro-econometric tool by suggesting the idea of conditional forecasting through a Vector Autoregressive (VAR modeling framework. Under this framework, a macroeconomic model for Georgian economy is constructed with the few variables believed to be shaping business environment. Based on the model, forecasts of macroeconomic variables are produced, and three types of scenarios are analyzed - a baseline and two alternative ones. The results of the study provide confirmatory evidence that suggested methodology is adequately addressing the research phenomenon and can be used widely by business entities in responding their strategic and operational planning challenges. Given this set-up, it is shown empirically that Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach provides reasonable forecasts for the variables of interest.

  13. Evidence-Based Cutoff Threshold Values from Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis for Knee Osteoarthritis in the 50-Year-Old Korean Population: Analysis of Big Data from the National Health Insurance Sharing Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyunseok Jee

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We aimed to investigate the characteristics of patients with osteoarthritis (OA, using the data of all Koreans registered in the National Health Insurance Sharing Service Database (NHISS DB, and to provide ideal alternative cutoff thresholds for alleviating OA symptoms. Patients with OA (codes M17 and M17.1–M17.9 in the Korean Standard Classification of Disease and Causes of Death were analyzed using SAS software. Optimal cutoff thresholds were determined using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The 50-year age group was the most OA pathogenic group (among 40~70 years, n=2088. All exercise types affected the change of body mass index (p<0.05 and the sex difference in blood pressure (BP (p<0.01. All types of exercise positively affected the loss of waist circumference and the balance test (standing time on one leg in seconds (p<0.01. The cutoff threshold for the time in seconds from standing up from a chair to walking 3 m and returning to the same chair was 8.25 (80% sensitivity and 100% specificity. By using the exercise modalities, categorized multiple variables, and the cutoff threshold, an optimal alternative exercise program can be designed for alleviating OA symptoms in the 50-year age group.

  14. Aggregated Residential Load Modeling Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vlachopoulou, Maria; Chin, George; Fuller, Jason C.; Lu, Shuai

    2014-09-28

    Abstract—It is already obvious that the future power grid will have to address higher demand for power and energy, and to incorporate renewable resources of different energy generation patterns. Demand response (DR) schemes could successfully be used to manage and balance power supply and demand under operating conditions of the future power grid. To achieve that, more advanced tools for DR management of operations and planning are necessary that can estimate the available capacity from DR resources. In this research, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is derived, trained, and tested that can model aggregated load of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. DBNs can provide flexible and powerful tools for both operations and planing, due to their unique analytical capabilities. The DBN model accuracy and flexibility of use is demonstrated by testing the model under different operational scenarios.

  15. A Comparison of Hierarchical and Non-Hierarchical Bayesian Approaches for Fitting Allometric Larch (Larix.spp. Biomass Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongsheng Chen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate biomass estimations are important for assessing and monitoring forest carbon storage. Bayesian theory has been widely applied to tree biomass models. Recently, a hierarchical Bayesian approach has received increasing attention for improving biomass models. In this study, tree biomass data were obtained by sampling 310 trees from 209 permanent sample plots from larch plantations in six regions across China. Non-hierarchical and hierarchical Bayesian approaches were used to model allometric biomass equations. We found that the total, root, stem wood, stem bark, branch and foliage biomass model relationships were statistically significant (p-values < 0.001 for both the non-hierarchical and hierarchical Bayesian approaches, but the hierarchical Bayesian approach increased the goodness-of-fit statistics over the non-hierarchical Bayesian approach. The R2 values of the hierarchical approach were higher than those of the non-hierarchical approach by 0.008, 0.018, 0.020, 0.003, 0.088 and 0.116 for the total tree, root, stem wood, stem bark, branch and foliage models, respectively. The hierarchical Bayesian approach significantly improved the accuracy of the biomass model (except for the stem bark and can reflect regional differences by using random parameters to improve the regional scale model accuracy.

  16. Advances in SIS receiver technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frerking, M. A.

    1988-01-01

    Significant advances in SIS receiver technology since the last Asilomar meeting include: superconductor materials, integrated inductive tuning elements, and planar mounting structures. The effect of these advances is to push the upper frequency operating limit from about 600 to 1500 GHz, and to enhance the feasibility of focal plane arrays of heterodyne receivers. A fundamental high frequency operating limit of SIS mixers is set by the superconducting energy gap. A practical limitation for high frequency operation of SIS junctions is their parasitic capacitance and resistance. The performance of the mixer will be degraded by the Resistor-Capacitor rolloff. Several designs were reported for inductive elements integrated on the same substrate as the SIS junctions to tune out the bulk junction capacitance. Most millimeter SIS-based heterodyne receivers have used waveguide coupling structures. Technology has advanced to the state where programs that have a high probability of success can be defined to produce arrays of SIS receivers for frequencies as high as 1500 GHz.

  17. Solar heat receiver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Arlon J.; Hansen, Leif J.; Evans, David B.

    1985-01-01

    A receiver for converting solar energy to heat a gas to temperatures from 700.degree.-900.degree. C. The receiver is formed to minimize impingement of radiation on the walls and to provide maximum heating at and near the entry of the gas exit. Also, the receiver is formed to provide controlled movement of the gas to be heated to minimize wall temperatures. The receiver is designed for use with gas containing fine heat absorbing particles, such as carbon particles.

  18. Bayesian estimation and modeling: Editorial to the second special issue on Bayesian data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Sy-Miin; Hoijtink, Herbert

    2017-12-01

    This editorial accompanies the second special issue on Bayesian data analysis published in this journal. The emphases of this issue are on Bayesian estimation and modeling. In this editorial, we outline the basics of current Bayesian estimation techniques and some notable developments in the statistical literature, as well as adaptations and extensions by psychological researchers to better tailor to the modeling applications in psychology. We end with a discussion on future outlooks of Bayesian data analysis in psychology. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  19. Bayesian Travel Time Inversion adopting Gaussian Process Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauerberger, S.; Holschneider, M.

    2017-12-01

    A major application in seismology is the determination of seismic velocity models. Travel time measurements are putting an integral constraint on the velocity between source and receiver. We provide insight into travel time inversion from a correlation-based Bayesian point of view. Therefore, the concept of Gaussian process regression is adopted to estimate a velocity model. The non-linear travel time integral is approximated by a 1st order Taylor expansion. A heuristic covariance describes correlations amongst observations and a priori model. That approach enables us to assess a proxy of the Bayesian posterior distribution at ordinary computational costs. No multi dimensional numeric integration nor excessive sampling is necessary. Instead of stacking the data, we suggest to progressively build the posterior distribution. Incorporating only a single evidence at a time accounts for the deficit of linearization. As a result, the most probable model is given by the posterior mean whereas uncertainties are described by the posterior covariance.As a proof of concept, a synthetic purely 1d model is addressed. Therefore a single source accompanied by multiple receivers is considered on top of a model comprising a discontinuity. We consider travel times of both phases - direct and reflected wave - corrupted by noise. Left and right of the interface are assumed independent where the squared exponential kernel serves as covariance.

  20. A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buslik, A.

    1994-01-01

    A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given

  1. Bayesian analysis for the social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Jackman, Simon

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian methods are increasingly being used in the social sciences, as the problems encountered lend themselves so naturally to the subjective qualities of Bayesian methodology. This book provides an accessible introduction to Bayesian methods, tailored specifically for social science students. It contains lots of real examples from political science, psychology, sociology, and economics, exercises in all chapters, and detailed descriptions of all the key concepts, without assuming any background in statistics beyond a first course. It features examples of how to implement the methods using WinBUGS - the most-widely used Bayesian analysis software in the world - and R - an open-source statistical software. The book is supported by a Website featuring WinBUGS and R code, and data sets.

  2. Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji

    2018-01-01

    An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.

  3. Bayesian Statistics の源流

    OpenAIRE

    新家, 健精

    1991-01-01

    © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. All rights reserved. Article Outline: Glossary Definition of the Subject and Introduction The Bayesian Statistical Paradigm Three Examples Comparison with the Frequentist Statistical Paradigm Future Directions Bibliography

  4. An overview on Approximate Bayesian computation*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baragatti Meïli

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation techniques, also called likelihood-free methods, are one of the most satisfactory approach to intractable likelihood problems. This overview presents recent results since its introduction about ten years ago in population genetics.

  5. Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

  6. A Bayesian concept learning approach to crowdsourcing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Viappiani, P.; Zilles, S.; Hamilton, H.J.

    2011-01-01

    We develop a Bayesian approach to concept learning for crowdsourcing applications. A probabilistic belief over possible concept definitions is maintained and updated according to (noisy) observations from experts, whose behaviors are modeled using discrete types. We propose recommendation...

  7. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, Vikas; Farr, Anna Charisse; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K D V

    2014-01-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++

  8. A Bayesian Network Approach to Ontology Mapping

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pan, Rong; Ding, Zhongli; Yu, Yang; Peng, Yun

    2005-01-01

    .... In this approach, the source and target ontologies are first translated into Bayesian networks (BN); the concept mapping between the two ontologies are treated as evidential reasoning between the two translated BNs...

  9. Bayesian networks for management of industrial risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munteanu, P.; Debache, G.; Duval, C.

    2008-01-01

    This article presents the outlines of Bayesian networks modelling and argues for their interest in the probabilistic studies of industrial risk and reliability. A practical case representative of this type of study is presented in support of the argumentation. The article concludes on some research tracks aiming at improving the performances of the methods relying on Bayesian networks and at widening their application area in risk management. (authors)

  10. MCMC for parameters estimation by bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ait Saadi, H.; Ykhlef, F.; Guessoum, A.

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses the parameter estimation for dynamic system by a Bayesian approach associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). The MCMC methods are powerful for approximating complex integrals, simulating joint distributions, and the estimation of marginal posterior distributions, or posterior means. The MetropolisHastings algorithm has been widely used in Bayesian inference to approximate posterior densities. Calibrating the proposal distribution is one of the main issues of MCMC simulation in order to accelerate the convergence.

  11. Capturing Business Cycles from a Bayesian Viewpoint

    OpenAIRE

    大鋸, 崇

    2011-01-01

    This paper is a survey of empirical studies analyzing business cycles from the perspective of Bayesian econometrics. Kim and Nelson (1998) use a hybrid model; Dynamic factor model of Stock and Watson (1989) and Markov switching model of Hamilton (1989). From the point of view, it is more important dealing with non-linear and non-Gaussian econometric models, recently. Although the classical econometric approaches have difficulty in these models, the Bayesian's do easily. The fact leads heavy u...

  12. Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-09

    inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle

  13. A Bayesian classifier for symbol recognition

    OpenAIRE

    Barrat , Sabine; Tabbone , Salvatore; Nourrissier , Patrick

    2007-01-01

    URL : http://www.buyans.com/POL/UploadedFile/134_9977.pdf; International audience; We present in this paper an original adaptation of Bayesian networks to symbol recognition problem. More precisely, a descriptor combination method, which enables to improve significantly the recognition rate compared to the recognition rates obtained by each descriptor, is presented. In this perspective, we use a simple Bayesian classifier, called naive Bayes. In fact, probabilistic graphical models, more spec...

  14. Bayesian Inference of Tumor Hypoxia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunawan, R.; Tenti, G.; Sivaloganathan, S.

    2009-12-01

    Tumor hypoxia is a state of oxygen deprivation in tumors. It has been associated with aggressive tumor phenotypes and with increased resistance to conventional cancer therapies. In this study, we report on the application of Bayesian sequential analysis in estimating the most probable value of tumor hypoxia quantification based on immunohistochemical assays of a biomarker. The `gold standard' of tumor hypoxia assessment is a direct measurement of pO2 in vivo by the Eppendorf polarographic electrode, which is an invasive technique restricted to accessible sites and living tissues. An attractive alternative is immunohistochemical staining to detect proteins expressed by cells during hypoxia. Carbonic anhydrase IX (CAIX) is an enzyme expressed on the cell membrane during hypoxia to balance the immediate extracellular microenvironment. CAIX is widely regarded as a surrogate marker of chronic hypoxia in various cancers. The study was conducted with two different experimental procedures. The first data set was a group of three patients with invasive cervical carcinomas, from which five biopsies were obtained. Each of the biopsies was fully sectioned and from each section, the proportion of CAIX-positive cells was estimated. Measurements were made by image analysis of multiple deep sections cut through these biopsies, labeled for CAIX using both immunofluorescence and immunohistochemical techniques [1]. The second data set was a group of 24 patients, also with invasive cervical carcinomas, from which two biopsies were obtained. Bayesian parameter estimation was applied to obtain a reliable inference about the proportion of CAIX-positive cells within the carcinomas, based on the available biopsies. From the first data set, two to three biopsies were found to be sufficient to infer the overall CAIX percentage in the simple form: best estimate±uncertainty. The second data-set led to a similar result in 70% of the cases. In the remaining cases Bayes' theorem warned us

  15. Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

    2013-02-01

    A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

  16. Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

    2015-01-01

    A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. PMID:22364575

  17. Solar dynamic heat receiver technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedgwick, Leigh M.

    1991-01-01

    A full-size, solar dynamic heat receiver was designed to meet the requirements specified for electrical power modules on the U.S. Space Station, Freedom. The heat receiver supplies thermal energy to power a heat engine in a closed Brayton cycle using a mixture of helium-xenon gas as the working fluid. The electrical power output of the engine, 25 kW, requires a 100 kW thermal input throughout a 90 minute orbit, including when the spacecraft is eclipsed for up to 36 minutes from the sun. The heat receiver employs an integral thermal energy storage system utilizing the latent heat available through the phase change of a high-temperature salt mixture. A near eutectic mixture of lithium fluoride and calcium difluoride is used as the phase change material. The salt is contained within a felt metal matrix which enhances heat transfer and controls the salt void distribution during solidification. Fabrication of the receiver is complete and it was delivered to NASA for verification testing in a simulated low-Earth-orbit environment. This document reviews the receiver design and describes its fabrication history. The major elements required to operate the receiver during testing are also described.

  18. Multi-reader multi-case studies using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve as a measure of diagnostic accuracy: systematic review with a focus on quality of data reporting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dendumrongsup, Thaworn; Plumb, Andrew A; Halligan, Steve; Fanshawe, Thomas R; Altman, Douglas G; Mallett, Susan

    2014-01-01

    We examined the design, analysis and reporting in multi-reader multi-case (MRMC) research studies using the area under the receiver-operating curve (ROC AUC) as a measure of diagnostic performance. We performed a systematic literature review from 2005 to 2013 inclusive to identify a minimum 50 studies. Articles of diagnostic test accuracy in humans were identified via their citation of key methodological articles dealing with MRMC ROC AUC. Two researchers in consensus then extracted information from primary articles relating to study characteristics and design, methods for reporting study outcomes, model fitting, model assumptions, presentation of results, and interpretation of findings. Results were summarized and presented with a descriptive analysis. Sixty-four full papers were retrieved from 475 identified citations and ultimately 49 articles describing 51 studies were reviewed and extracted. Radiological imaging was the index test in all. Most studies focused on lesion detection vs. characterization and used less than 10 readers. Only 6 (12%) studies trained readers in advance to use the confidence scale used to build the ROC curve. Overall, description of confidence scores, the ROC curve and its analysis was often incomplete. For example, 21 (41%) studies presented no ROC curve and only 3 (6%) described the distribution of confidence scores. Of 30 studies presenting curves, only 4 (13%) presented the data points underlying the curve, thereby allowing assessment of extrapolation. The mean change in AUC was 0.05 (-0.05 to 0.28). Non-significant change in AUC was attributed to underpowering rather than the diagnostic test failing to improve diagnostic accuracy. Data reporting in MRMC studies using ROC AUC as an outcome measure is frequently incomplete, hampering understanding of methods and the reliability of results and study conclusions. Authors using this analysis should be encouraged to provide a full description of their methods and results.

  19. Multi-reader multi-case studies using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve as a measure of diagnostic accuracy: systematic review with a focus on quality of data reporting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thaworn Dendumrongsup

    Full Text Available We examined the design, analysis and reporting in multi-reader multi-case (MRMC research studies using the area under the receiver-operating curve (ROC AUC as a measure of diagnostic performance.We performed a systematic literature review from 2005 to 2013 inclusive to identify a minimum 50 studies. Articles of diagnostic test accuracy in humans were identified via their citation of key methodological articles dealing with MRMC ROC AUC. Two researchers in consensus then extracted information from primary articles relating to study characteristics and design, methods for reporting study outcomes, model fitting, model assumptions, presentation of results, and interpretation of findings. Results were summarized and presented with a descriptive analysis.Sixty-four full papers were retrieved from 475 identified citations and ultimately 49 articles describing 51 studies were reviewed and extracted. Radiological imaging was the index test in all. Most studies focused on lesion detection vs. characterization and used less than 10 readers. Only 6 (12% studies trained readers in advance to use the confidence scale used to build the ROC curve. Overall, description of confidence scores, the ROC curve and its analysis was often incomplete. For example, 21 (41% studies presented no ROC curve and only 3 (6% described the distribution of confidence scores. Of 30 studies presenting curves, only 4 (13% presented the data points underlying the curve, thereby allowing assessment of extrapolation. The mean change in AUC was 0.05 (-0.05 to 0.28. Non-significant change in AUC was attributed to underpowering rather than the diagnostic test failing to improve diagnostic accuracy.Data reporting in MRMC studies using ROC AUC as an outcome measure is frequently incomplete, hampering understanding of methods and the reliability of results and study conclusions. Authors using this analysis should be encouraged to provide a full description of their methods and results.

  20. Bayesian inversion of refraction seismic traveltime data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryberg, T.; Haberland, Ch

    2018-03-01

    We apply a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) formalism to the inversion of refraction seismic, traveltime data sets to derive 2-D velocity models below linear arrays (i.e. profiles) of sources and seismic receivers. Typical refraction data sets, especially when using the far-offset observations, are known as having experimental geometries which are very poor, highly ill-posed and far from being ideal. As a consequence, the structural resolution quickly degrades with depth. Conventional inversion techniques, based on regularization, potentially suffer from the choice of appropriate inversion parameters (i.e. number and distribution of cells, starting velocity models, damping and smoothing constraints, data noise level, etc.) and only local model space exploration. McMC techniques are used for exhaustive sampling of the model space without the need of prior knowledge (or assumptions) of inversion parameters, resulting in a large number of models fitting the observations. Statistical analysis of these models allows to derive an average (reference) solution and its standard deviation, thus providing uncertainty estimates of the inversion result. The highly non-linear character of the inversion problem, mainly caused by the experiment geometry, does not allow to derive a reference solution and error map by a simply averaging procedure. We present a modified averaging technique, which excludes parts of the prior distribution in the posterior values due to poor ray coverage, thus providing reliable estimates of inversion model properties even in those parts of the models. The model is discretized by a set of Voronoi polygons (with constant slowness cells) or a triangulated mesh (with interpolation within the triangles). Forward traveltime calculations are performed by a fast, finite-difference-based eikonal solver. The method is applied to a data set from a refraction seismic survey from Northern Namibia and compared to conventional tomography. An inversion test

  1. EXONEST: The Bayesian Exoplanetary Explorer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin H. Knuth

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The fields of astronomy and astrophysics are currently engaged in an unprecedented era of discovery as recent missions have revealed thousands of exoplanets orbiting other stars. While the Kepler Space Telescope mission has enabled most of these exoplanets to be detected by identifying transiting events, exoplanets often exhibit additional photometric effects that can be used to improve the characterization of exoplanets. The EXONEST Exoplanetary Explorer is a Bayesian exoplanet inference engine based on nested sampling and originally designed to analyze archived Kepler Space Telescope and CoRoT (Convection Rotation et Transits planétaires exoplanet mission data. We discuss the EXONEST software package and describe how it accommodates plug-and-play models of exoplanet-associated photometric effects for the purpose of exoplanet detection, characterization and scientific hypothesis testing. The current suite of models allows for both circular and eccentric orbits in conjunction with photometric effects, such as the primary transit and secondary eclipse, reflected light, thermal emissions, ellipsoidal variations, Doppler beaming and superrotation. We discuss our new efforts to expand the capabilities of the software to include more subtle photometric effects involving reflected and refracted light. We discuss the EXONEST inference engine design and introduce our plans to port the current MATLAB-based EXONEST software package over to the next generation Exoplanetary Explorer, which will be a Python-based open source project with the capability to employ third-party plug-and-play models of exoplanet-related photometric effects.

  2. Maximum entropy and Bayesian methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, C.R.; Erickson, G.J.; Neudorfer, P.O.

    1992-01-01

    Bayesian probability theory and Maximum Entropy methods are at the core of a new view of scientific inference. These 'new' ideas, along with the revolution in computational methods afforded by modern computers allow astronomers, electrical engineers, image processors of any type, NMR chemists and physicists, and anyone at all who has to deal with incomplete and noisy data, to take advantage of methods that, in the past, have been applied only in some areas of theoretical physics. The title workshops have been the focus of a group of researchers from many different fields, and this diversity is evident in this book. There are tutorial and theoretical papers, and applications in a very wide variety of fields. Almost any instance of dealing with incomplete and noisy data can be usefully treated by these methods, and many areas of theoretical research are being enhanced by the thoughtful application of Bayes' theorem. Contributions contained in this volume present a state-of-the-art overview that will be influential and useful for many years to come

  3. Food Reconstruction Using Isotopic Transferred Signals (FRUITS): A Bayesian Model for Diet Reconstruction

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fernandes, R.; Millard, A.R.; Brabec, Marek; Nadeau, M.J.; Grootes, P.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 2 (2014), Art . no. e87436 E-ISSN 1932-6203 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : ancienit diet reconstruction * stable isotope measurements * mixture model * Bayesian estimation * Dirichlet prior Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 3.234, year: 2014

  4. Reconstruction of prehistoric pottery use from fatty acid carbon isotope signatures using Bayesian inference

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fernandes, R.; Eley, Y.; Brabec, Marek; Lucquin, A.; Millard, A.; Craig, O.E.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 117, March (2018), s. 31-42 ISSN 0146-6380 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : Fatty acids * carbon isotopes * pottery use * Bayesian mixing models * FRUITS Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 3.081, year: 2016

  5. Low complexity MIMO receivers

    CERN Document Server

    Bai, Lin; Yu, Quan

    2014-01-01

    Multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems can increase the spectral efficiency in wireless communications. However, the interference becomes the major drawback that leads to high computational complexity at both transmitter and receiver. In particular, the complexity of MIMO receivers can be prohibitively high. As an efficient mathematical tool to devise low complexity approaches that mitigate the interference in MIMO systems, lattice reduction (LR) has been widely studied and employed over the last decade. The co-authors of this book are world's leading experts on MIMO receivers, and here they share the key findings of their research over years. They detail a range of key techniques for receiver design as multiple transmitted and received signals are available. The authors first introduce the principle of signal detection and the LR in mathematical aspects. They then move on to discuss the use of LR in low complexity MIMO receiver design with respect to different aspects, including uncoded MIMO detection...

  6. Delphi Accounts Receivable Module -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — Delphi accounts receivable module contains the following data elements, but are not limited to customer information, cash receipts, line of accounting details, bill...

  7. HIGH-EFFICIENCY INFRARED RECEIVER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Esman

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent research and development show promising use of high-performance solid-state receivers of the electromagnetic radiation. These receivers are based on the low-barrier Schottky diodes. The approach to the design of the receivers on the basis of delta-doped low-barrier Schottky diodes with beam leads without bias is especially actively developing because for uncooled receivers of the microwave radiation these diodes have virtually no competition. The purpose of this work is to improve the main parameters and characteristics that determine the practical relevance of the receivers of mid-infrared electromagnetic radiation at the operating room temperature by modifying the electrodes configuration of the diode and optimizing the distance between them. Proposed original design solution of the integrated receiver of mid-infrared radiation on the basis of the low-barrier Schottky diodes with beam leads allows to effectively adjust its main parameters and characteristics. Simulation of the electromagnetic characteristics of the proposed receiver by using the software package HFSS with the basic algorithm of a finite element method which implemented to calculate the behavior of electromagnetic fields on an arbitrary geometry with a predetermined material properties have shown that when the inner parts of the electrodes of the low-barrier Schottky diode is performed in the concentric elliptical convex-concave shape, it can be reduce the reflection losses to -57.75 dB and the standing wave ratio to 1.003 while increasing the directivity up to 23 at a wavelength of 6.09 μm. At this time, the rounded radii of the inner parts of the anode and cathode electrodes are equal 212 nm and 318 nm respectively and the gap setting between them is 106 nm. These parameters will improve the efficiency of the developed infrared optical-promising and electronic equipment for various purposes intended for work in the mid-infrared wavelength range. 

  8. A Bayesian Approach for Sensor Optimisation in Impact Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincenzo Mallardo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a Bayesian approach for optimizing the position of sensors aimed at impact identification in composite structures under operational conditions. The uncertainty in the sensor data has been represented by statistical distributions of the recorded signals. An optimisation strategy based on the genetic algorithm is proposed to find the best sensor combination aimed at locating impacts on composite structures. A Bayesian-based objective function is adopted in the optimisation procedure as an indicator of the performance of meta-models developed for different sensor combinations to locate various impact events. To represent a real structure under operational load and to increase the reliability of the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM system, the probability of malfunctioning sensors is included in the optimisation. The reliability and the robustness of the procedure is tested with experimental and numerical examples. Finally, the proposed optimisation algorithm is applied to a composite stiffened panel for both the uniform and non-uniform probability of impact occurrence.

  9. Dimensionality reduction in Bayesian estimation algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. W. Petty

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available An idealized synthetic database loosely resembling 3-channel passive microwave observations of precipitation against a variable background is employed to examine the performance of a conventional Bayesian retrieval algorithm. For this dataset, algorithm performance is found to be poor owing to an irreconcilable conflict between the need to find matches in the dependent database versus the need to exclude inappropriate matches. It is argued that the likelihood of such conflicts increases sharply with the dimensionality of the observation space of real satellite sensors, which may utilize 9 to 13 channels to retrieve precipitation, for example. An objective method is described for distilling the relevant information content from N real channels into a much smaller number (M of pseudochannels while also regularizing the background (geophysical plus instrument noise component. The pseudochannels are linear combinations of the original N channels obtained via a two-stage principal component analysis of the dependent dataset. Bayesian retrievals based on a single pseudochannel applied to the independent dataset yield striking improvements in overall performance. The differences between the conventional Bayesian retrieval and reduced-dimensional Bayesian retrieval suggest that a major potential problem with conventional multichannel retrievals – whether Bayesian or not – lies in the common but often inappropriate assumption of diagonal error covariance. The dimensional reduction technique described herein avoids this problem by, in effect, recasting the retrieval problem in a coordinate system in which the desired covariance is lower-dimensional, diagonal, and unit magnitude.

  10. Dimensionality reduction in Bayesian estimation algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petty, G. W.

    2013-09-01

    An idealized synthetic database loosely resembling 3-channel passive microwave observations of precipitation against a variable background is employed to examine the performance of a conventional Bayesian retrieval algorithm. For this dataset, algorithm performance is found to be poor owing to an irreconcilable conflict between the need to find matches in the dependent database versus the need to exclude inappropriate matches. It is argued that the likelihood of such conflicts increases sharply with the dimensionality of the observation space of real satellite sensors, which may utilize 9 to 13 channels to retrieve precipitation, for example. An objective method is described for distilling the relevant information content from N real channels into a much smaller number (M) of pseudochannels while also regularizing the background (geophysical plus instrument) noise component. The pseudochannels are linear combinations of the original N channels obtained via a two-stage principal component analysis of the dependent dataset. Bayesian retrievals based on a single pseudochannel applied to the independent dataset yield striking improvements in overall performance. The differences between the conventional Bayesian retrieval and reduced-dimensional Bayesian retrieval suggest that a major potential problem with conventional multichannel retrievals - whether Bayesian or not - lies in the common but often inappropriate assumption of diagonal error covariance. The dimensional reduction technique described herein avoids this problem by, in effect, recasting the retrieval problem in a coordinate system in which the desired covariance is lower-dimensional, diagonal, and unit magnitude.

  11. Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya

    2018-03-01

    Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.

  12. How few? Bayesian statistics in injury biomechanics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutcliffe, Hattie C; Schmidt, Allison L; Lucas, Joseph E; Bass, Cameron R

    2012-10-01

    In injury biomechanics, there are currently no general a priori estimates of how few specimens are necessary to obtain sufficiently accurate injury risk curves for a given underlying distribution. Further, several methods are available for constructing these curves, and recent methods include Bayesian survival analysis. This study used statistical simulations to evaluate the fidelity of different injury risk methods using limited sample sizes across four different underlying distributions. Five risk curve techniques were evaluated, including Bayesian techniques. For the Bayesian analyses, various prior distributions were assessed, each incorporating more accurate information. Simulated subject injury and biomechanical input values were randomly sampled from each underlying distribution, and injury status was determined by comparing these values. Injury risk curves were developed for this data using each technique for various small sample sizes; for each, analyses on 2000 simulated data sets were performed. Resulting median predicted risk values and confidence intervals were compared with the underlying distributions. Across conditions, the standard and Bayesian survival analyses better represented the underlying distributions included in this study, especially for extreme (1, 10, and 90%) risk. This study demonstrates that the value of the Bayesian analysis is the use of informed priors. As the mean of the prior approaches the actual value, the sample size necessary for good reproduction of the underlying distribution with small confidence intervals can be as small as 2. This study provides estimates of confidence intervals and number of samples to allow the selection of the most appropriate sample sizes given known information.

  13. A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2015-03-01

    In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).

  14. Bayesian Nonparametric Estimation of Targeted Agent Effects on Biomarker Change to Predict Clinical Outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graziani, Rebecca; Guindani, Michele; Thall, Peter F.

    2015-01-01

    Summary The effect of a targeted agent on a cancer patient's clinical outcome putatively is mediated through the agent's effect on one or more early biological events. This is motivated by pre-clinical experiments with cells or animals that identify such events, represented by binary or quantitative biomarkers. When evaluating targeted agents in humans, central questions are whether the distribution of a targeted biomarker changes following treatment, the nature and magnitude of this change, and whether it is associated with clinical outcome. Major difficulties in estimating these effects are that a biomarker's distribution may be complex, vary substantially between patients, and have complicated relationships with clinical outcomes. We present a probabilistically coherent framework for modeling and estimation in this setting, including a hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for biomarkers that we use to define a functional profile of pre-versus-post treatment biomarker distribution change. The functional is similar to the receiver operating characteristic used in diagnostic testing. The hierarchical model yields clusters of individual patient biomarker profile functionals, and we use the profile as a covariate in a regression model for clinical outcome. The methodology is illustrated by analysis of a dataset from a clinical trial in prostate cancer using imatinib to target platelet-derived growth factor, with the clinical aim to improve progression-free survival time. PMID:25319212

  15. Comparison of Two Gas Selection Methodologies: An Application of Bayesian Model Averaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renholds, Andrea S.; Thompson, Sandra E.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Chilton, Lawrence K.

    2006-03-31

    One goal of hyperspectral imagery analysis is the detection and characterization of plumes. Characterization includes identifying the gases in the plumes, which is a model selection problem. Two gas selection methods compared in this report are Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and minimum Akaike information criterion (AIC) stepwise regression (SR). Simulated spectral data from a three-layer radiance transfer model were used to compare the two methods. Test gases were chosen to span the types of spectra observed, which exhibit peaks ranging from broad to sharp. The size and complexity of the search libraries were varied. Background materials were chosen to either replicate a remote area of eastern Washington or feature many common background materials. For many cases, BMA and SR performed the detection task comparably in terms of the receiver operating characteristic curves. For some gases, BMA performed better than SR when the size and complexity of the search library increased. This is encouraging because we expect improved BMA performance upon incorporation of prior information on background materials and gases.

  16. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance Using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes how risk-based decision making can be used for maintenance planning of components exposed to degradation such as fatigue in offshore wind turbines. In fatigue models, large epistemic uncertainties are usually present. These can be reduced if monitoring results are used...

  17. Empirical verification for application of Bayesian inference in situation awareness evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Seongkeun; Kim, Ar Ryum; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Situation awareness (SA) of human operators is significantly important for safe operation in nuclear power plants (NPPs). • SA of human operators was empirically estimated using Bayesian inference. • In this empirical study, the effect of attention and working memory to SA was considered. • Complexcity of the given task and design of human machine interface (HMI) considerably affect SA of human operators. - Abstract: Bayesian methodology has been widely used in various research fields. According to current research, malfunctions of nuclear power plants can be detected using this Bayesian inference, which consistently piles up newly incoming data and updates the estimation. However, these studies have been based on the assumption that people work like computers—perfectly—a supposition that may cause a problem in real world applications. Studies in cognitive psychology indicate that when the amount of information to be processed becomes larger, people cannot save the whole set of data in their heads due to limited attention and limited memory capacity, also known as working memory. The purpose of the current research is to consider how actual human aware the situation contrasts with our expectations, and how such disparity affects the results of conventional Bayesian inference, if at all. We compared situation awareness (SA) of ideal operators with SA of human operators, and for the human operator we used both text-based human machine interface (HMI) and infographic-based HMI to further compare two existing human operators. In addition, two different scenarios were selected how scenario complexity affects SA of human operators. As a results, when a malfunction occurred, the ideal operator found the malfunction nearly 100% probability of the time using Bayesian inference. In contrast, out of forty-six human operators, only 69.57% found the correct malfunction with simple scenario and 58.70% with complex scenario in the text-based HMI. In

  18. Bayesian analysis of MEG visual evoked responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmidt, D.M.; George, J.S.; Wood, C.C.

    1999-04-01

    The authors developed a method for analyzing neural electromagnetic data that allows probabilistic inferences to be drawn about regions of activation. The method involves the generation of a large number of possible solutions which both fir the data and prior expectations about the nature of probable solutions made explicit by a Bayesian formalism. In addition, they have introduced a model for the current distributions that produce MEG and (EEG) data that allows extended regions of activity, and can easily incorporate prior information such as anatomical constraints from MRI. To evaluate the feasibility and utility of the Bayesian approach with actual data, they analyzed MEG data from a visual evoked response experiment. They compared Bayesian analyses of MEG responses to visual stimuli in the left and right visual fields, in order to examine the sensitivity of the method to detect known features of human visual cortex organization. They also examined the changing pattern of cortical activation as a function of time.

  19. Empirical Bayesian inference and model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poern, K.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a hierarchical or multistage empirical Bayesian approach for the estimation of uncertainty concerning the intensity of a homogeneous Poisson process. A class of contaminated gamma distributions is considered to describe the uncertainty concerning the intensity. These distributions in turn are defined through a set of secondary parameters, the knowledge of which is also described and updated via Bayes formula. This two-stage Bayesian approach is an example where the modeling uncertainty is treated in a comprehensive way. Each contaminated gamma distributions, represented by a point in the 3D space of secondary parameters, can be considered as a specific model of the uncertainty about the Poisson intensity. Then, by the empirical Bayesian method each individual model is assigned a posterior probability

  20. Bayesian modeling of unknown diseases for biosurveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yanna; Cooper, Gregory F

    2009-11-14

    This paper investigates Bayesian modeling of unknown causes of events in the context of disease-outbreak detection. We introduce a Bayesian approach that models and detects both (1) known diseases (e.g., influenza and anthrax) by using informative prior probabilities and (2) unknown diseases (e.g., a new, highly contagious respiratory virus that has never been seen before) by using relatively non-informative prior probabilities. We report the results of simulation experiments which support that this modeling method can improve the detection of new disease outbreaks in a population. A key contribution of this paper is that it introduces a Bayesian approach for jointly modeling both known and unknown causes of events. Such modeling has broad applicability in medical informatics, where the space of known causes of outcomes of interest is seldom complete.

  1. Bayesian model selection: Evidence estimation based on DREAM simulation and bridge sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpi, Elena; Schoups, Gerrit; Firmani, Giovanni; Vrugt, Jasper A.

    2017-04-01

    Bayesian inference has found widespread application in Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling, providing an effective tool for prediction, data assimilation, parameter estimation, uncertainty analysis and hypothesis testing. Under multiple competing hypotheses, the Bayesian approach also provides an attractive alternative to traditional information criteria (e.g. AIC, BIC) for model selection. The key variable for Bayesian model selection is the evidence (or marginal likelihood) that is the normalizing constant in the denominator of Bayes theorem; while it is fundamental for model selection, the evidence is not required for Bayesian inference. It is computed for each hypothesis (model) by averaging the likelihood function over the prior parameter distribution, rather than maximizing it as by information criteria; the larger a model evidence the more support it receives among a collection of hypothesis as the simulated values assign relatively high probability density to the observed data. Hence, the evidence naturally acts as an Occam's razor, preferring simpler and more constrained models against the selection of over-fitted ones by information criteria that incorporate only the likelihood maximum. Since it is not particularly easy to estimate the evidence in practice, Bayesian model selection via the marginal likelihood has not yet found mainstream use. We illustrate here the properties of a new estimator of the Bayesian model evidence, which provides robust and unbiased estimates of the marginal likelihood; the method is coined Gaussian Mixture Importance Sampling (GMIS). GMIS uses multidimensional numerical integration of the posterior parameter distribution via bridge sampling (a generalization of importance sampling) of a mixture distribution fitted to samples of the posterior distribution derived from the DREAM algorithm (Vrugt et al., 2008; 2009). Some illustrative examples are presented to show the robustness and superiority of the GMIS estimator with

  2. Alexandrite Lidar Receiver

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wilkerson, Thomas

    2000-01-01

    ...". The chosen vendor, Orca Photonics, In. (Redmond, WA), in close collaboration with USU personnel, built a portable, computerized lidar system that not only is suitable as a receiver for a near IR alexandrite laser, but also contains an independent Nd...

  3. JSSG - SPACED RECEIVER MEASUREMENTS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The height of ionospheric irregularities was measured by several laboratories belonging to the Joint Satellite Studies Group, using spaced receiver techniques. The method of analysis and results obtained are presented. (Author)

  4. Solar energy receiver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Jacob

    1978-01-01

    An improved long-life design for solar energy receivers provides for greatly reduced thermally induced stress and permits the utilization of less expensive heat exchanger materials while maintaining receiver efficiencies in excess of 85% without undue expenditure of energy to circulate the working fluid. In one embodiment, the flow index for the receiver is first set as close as practical to a value such that the Graetz number yields the optimal heat transfer coefficient per unit of pumping energy, in this case, 6. The convective index for the receiver is then set as closely as practical to two times the flow index so as to obtain optimal efficiency per unit mass of material.

  5. Receiver Gain Modulation Circuit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Hollis; Racette, Paul; Walker, David; Gu, Dazhen

    2011-01-01

    A receiver gain modulation circuit (RGMC) was developed that modulates the power gain of the output of a radiometer receiver with a test signal. As the radiometer receiver switches between calibration noise references, the test signal is mixed with the calibrated noise and thus produces an ensemble set of measurements from which ensemble statistical analysis can be used to extract statistical information about the test signal. The RGMC is an enabling technology of the ensemble detector. As a key component for achieving ensemble detection and analysis, the RGMC has broad aeronautical and space applications. The RGMC can be used to test and develop new calibration algorithms, for example, to detect gain anomalies, and/or correct for slow drifts that affect climate-quality measurements over an accelerated time scale. A generalized approach to analyzing radiometer system designs yields a mathematical treatment of noise reference measurements in calibration algorithms. By treating the measurements from the different noise references as ensemble samples of the receiver state, i.e. receiver gain, a quantitative description of the non-stationary properties of the underlying receiver fluctuations can be derived. Excellent agreement has been obtained between model calculations and radiometric measurements. The mathematical formulation is equivalent to modulating the gain of a stable receiver with an externally generated signal and is the basis for ensemble detection and analysis (EDA). The concept of generating ensemble data sets using an ensemble detector is similar to the ensemble data sets generated as part of ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) with exception of a key distinguishing factor. EEMD adds noise to the signal under study whereas EDA mixes the signal with calibrated noise. It is mixing with calibrated noise that permits the measurement of temporal-functional variability of uncertainty in the underlying process. The RGMC permits the evaluation of EDA by

  6. Bayesian fault detection and isolation using Field Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranowski, Jerzy; Bania, Piotr; Prasad, Indrajeet; Cong, Tian

    2017-12-01

    Fault detection and isolation is crucial for the efficient operation and safety of any industrial process. There is a variety of methods from all areas of data analysis employed to solve this kind of task, such as Bayesian reasoning and Kalman filter. In this paper, the authors use a discrete Field Kalman Filter (FKF) to detect and recognize faulty conditions in a system. The proposed approach, devised for stochastic linear systems, allows for analysis of faults that can be expressed both as parameter and disturbance variations. This approach is formulated for the situations when the fault catalog is known, resulting in the algorithm allowing estimation of probability values. Additionally, a variant of algorithm with greater numerical robustness is presented, based on computation of logarithmic odds. Proposed algorithm operation is illustrated with numerical examples, and both its merits and limitations are critically discussed and compared with traditional EKF.

  7. Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lawson, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    .... Exploring these new developments, Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology, Second Edition provides an up-to-date, cohesive account of the full range of Bayesian disease mapping methods and applications...

  8. Bayesian Inference in Polling Technique: 1992 Presidential Polls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satake, Eiki

    1994-01-01

    Explores the potential utility of Bayesian statistical methods in determining the predictability of multiple polls. Compares Bayesian techniques to the classical statistical method employed by pollsters. Considers these questions in the context of the 1992 presidential elections. (HB)

  9. The Bayesian Approach to Association

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, N. S.

    2017-12-01

    The Bayesian approach to Association focuses mainly on quantifying the physics of the domain. In the case of seismic association for instance let X be the set of all significant events (above some threshold) and their attributes, such as location, time, and magnitude, Y1 be the set of detections that are caused by significant events and their attributes such as seismic phase, arrival time, amplitude etc., Y2 be the set of detections that are not caused by significant events, and finally Y be the set of observed detections We would now define the joint distribution P(X, Y1, Y2, Y) = P(X) P(Y1 | X) P(Y2) I(Y = Y1 + Y2) ; where the last term simply states that Y1 and Y2 are a partitioning of Y. Given the above joint distribution the inference problem is simply to find the X, Y1, and Y2 that maximizes posterior probability P(X, Y1, Y2| Y) which reduces to maximizing P(X) P(Y1 | X) P(Y2) I(Y = Y1 + Y2). In this expression P(X) captures our prior belief about event locations. P(Y1 | X) captures notions of travel time, residual error distributions as well as detection and mis-detection probabilities. While P(Y2) captures the false detection rate of our seismic network. The elegance of this approach is that all of the assumptions are stated clearly in the model for P(X), P(Y1|X) and P(Y2). The implementation of the inference is merely a by-product of this model. In contrast some of the other methods such as GA hide a number of assumptions in the implementation details of the inference - such as the so called "driver cells." The other important aspect of this approach is that all seismic knowledge including knowledge from other domains such as infrasound and hydroacoustic can be included in the same model. So, we don't need to separately account for misdetections or merge seismic and infrasound events as a separate step. Finally, it should be noted that the objective of automatic association is to simplify the job of humans who are publishing seismic bulletins based on this

  10. Flood alert system based on bayesian techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulliver, Z.; Herrero, J.; Viesca, C.; Polo, M. J.

    2012-04-01

    The problem of floods in the Mediterranean regions is closely linked to the occurrence of torrential storms in dry regions, where even the water supply relies on adequate water management. Like other Mediterranean basins in Southern Spain, the Guadalhorce River Basin is a medium sized watershed (3856 km2) where recurrent yearly floods occur , mainly in autumn and spring periods, driven by cold front phenomena. The torrential character of the precipitation in such small basins, with a concentration time of less than 12 hours, produces flash flood events with catastrophic effects over the city of Malaga (600000 inhabitants). From this fact arises the need for specific alert tools which can forecast these kinds of phenomena. Bayesian networks (BN) have been emerging in the last decade as a very useful and reliable computational tool for water resources and for the decision making process. The joint use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and BN have served us to recognize and simulate the two different types of hydrological behaviour in the basin: natural and regulated. This led to the establishment of causal relationships between precipitation, discharge from upstream reservoirs, and water levels at a gauging station. It was seen that a recurrent ANN model working at an hourly scale, considering daily precipitation and the two previous hourly values of reservoir discharge and water level, could provide R2 values of 0.86. BN's results slightly improve this fit, but contribute with uncertainty to the prediction. In our current work to Design a Weather Warning Service based on Bayesian techniques the first steps were carried out through an analysis of the correlations between the water level and rainfall at certain representative points in the basin, along with the upstream reservoir discharge. The lower correlation found between precipitation and water level emphasizes the highly regulated condition of the stream. The autocorrelations of the variables were also

  11. The Caltech airborne submillimeter SIS receiver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zmuidzinas, Jonas; Carlstrom, J.; Miller, D.; Ugras, N. G.

    1995-01-01

    We have constructed a sensitive submillimeter receiver for the NASA Kuiper Airborne Observatory (KAO) which at present operates in the 500-750 GHz band. The DSB receiver noise temperature is about 5 h nu/k(sub B) over the 500-700 GHz range. This receiver has been used to detect H2O(18)O, HCl, and CH in interstellar molecular clouds, and also to search for C(+) emission from the highly redshifted galaxy (z = 2.3) IRAS 10214.

  12. Bayesian estimation and tracking a practical guide

    CERN Document Server

    Haug, Anton J

    2012-01-01

    A practical approach to estimating and tracking dynamic systems in real-worl applications Much of the literature on performing estimation for non-Gaussian systems is short on practical methodology, while Gaussian methods often lack a cohesive derivation. Bayesian Estimation and Tracking addresses the gap in the field on both accounts, providing readers with a comprehensive overview of methods for estimating both linear and nonlinear dynamic systems driven by Gaussian and non-Gaussian noices. Featuring a unified approach to Bayesian estimation and tracking, the book emphasizes the derivation

  13. Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2013-01-01

    an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...

  14. Motion Learning Based on Bayesian Program Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Meng-Zhen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The concept of virtual human has been highly anticipated since the 1980s. By using computer technology, Human motion simulation could generate authentic visual effect, which could cheat human eyes visually. Bayesian Program Learning train one or few motion data, generate new motion data by decomposing and combining. And the generated motion will be more realistic and natural than the traditional one.In this paper, Motion learning based on Bayesian program learning allows us to quickly generate new motion data, reduce workload, improve work efficiency, reduce the cost of motion capture, and improve the reusability of data.

  15. Bayesian inference and the parametric bootstrap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efron, Bradley

    2013-01-01

    The parametric bootstrap can be used for the efficient computation of Bayes posterior distributions. Importance sampling formulas take on an easy form relating to the deviance in exponential families, and are particularly simple starting from Jeffreys invariant prior. Because of the i.i.d. nature of bootstrap sampling, familiar formulas describe the computational accuracy of the Bayes estimates. Besides computational methods, the theory provides a connection between Bayesian and frequentist analysis. Efficient algorithms for the frequentist accuracy of Bayesian inferences are developed and demonstrated in a model selection example. PMID:23843930

  16. Length Scales in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Gh.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Two conceptual developments in the Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature approach to the numerical solution of one-dimensional Riemann integrals [Gh. Adam, S. Adam, Springer LNCS 7125, 1–16 (2012] are reported. First, it is shown that the numerical quadrature which avoids the overcomputing and minimizes the hidden floating point loss of precision asks for the consideration of three classes of integration domain lengths endowed with specific quadrature sums: microscopic (trapezoidal rule, mesoscopic (Simpson rule, and macroscopic (quadrature sums of high algebraic degrees of precision. Second, sensitive diagnostic tools for the Bayesian inference on macroscopic ranges, coming from the use of Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature, are derived.

  17. Length Scales in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Gh.; Adam, S.

    2016-02-01

    Two conceptual developments in the Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature approach to the numerical solution of one-dimensional Riemann integrals [Gh. Adam, S. Adam, Springer LNCS 7125, 1-16 (2012)] are reported. First, it is shown that the numerical quadrature which avoids the overcomputing and minimizes the hidden floating point loss of precision asks for the consideration of three classes of integration domain lengths endowed with specific quadrature sums: microscopic (trapezoidal rule), mesoscopic (Simpson rule), and macroscopic (quadrature sums of high algebraic degrees of precision). Second, sensitive diagnostic tools for the Bayesian inference on macroscopic ranges, coming from the use of Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature, are derived.

  18. A concept of Bayesian regulation in fisheries management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noél Michael André Holmgren

    Full Text Available Stochastic variability of biological processes and uncertainty of stock properties compel fisheries managers to look for tools to improve control over the stock. Inspired by animals exploiting hidden prey, we have taken a biomimetic approach combining catch and effort in a concept of Bayesian regulation (BR. The BR provides a real-time Bayesian stock estimate, and can operate without separate stock assessment. We compared the performance of BR with catch-only regulation (CR, alternatively operating with N-target (the stock size giving maximum sustainable yield, MSY and F-target (the fishing mortality giving MSY on a stock model of Baltic Sea herring. N-targeted BR gave 3% higher yields than F-targeted BR and CR, and 7% higher yields than N-targeted CR. The BRs reduced coefficient of variance (CV in fishing mortality compared to CR by 99.6% (from 25.2 to 0.1 when operated with F-target, and by about 80% (from 158.4 to 68.4/70.1 depending on how the prior is set in stock size when operated with N-target. Even though F-targeted fishery reduced CV in pre-harvest stock size by 19-22%, it increased the dominant period length of population fluctuations from 20 to 60-80 years. In contrast, N-targeted BR made the periodic variation more similar to white noise. We discuss the conditions when BRs can be suitable tools to achieve sustainable yields while minimizing undesirable fluctuations in stock size or fishing effort.

  19. Accuracy of cerebrospinal leucocyte count, protein and culture for the diagnosis of acute bacterial meningitis: a comparative study using Bayesian latent class analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Laurens; Laman, Moses; Mare, Trevor; Hwaiwhanje, Ilomo; Siba, Peter; Davis, Timothy M E

    2014-12-01

    To examine the utility of laboratory methods other than bacterial culture in diagnosing acute bacterial meningitis (ABM). Bayesian latent class analysis was used to estimate diagnostic precision of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) culture, leucocyte counts and protein concentrations for ABM in Melanesian children. With a cut-off of ≥20 leucocytes/mm(3) , the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC ROC) was >97.5% for leucocyte counts. A lower (93%) AUC ROC was observed for CSF protein concentrations ≥1 g/l. CSF culture had poor sensitivity and high specificity. Leucocyte counts provide sufficient diagnostic precision to aid clinical decision-making in ABM. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Forecasting the 2012 and 2014 Elections Using Bayesian Prediction and Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven E. Rigdon

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a data-driven Bayesian model used to predict the state-by-state winners in the Senate and presidential elections in 2012 and 2014. The Bayesian model takes into account the proportions of polled subjects who favor each candidate and the proportion who are undecided, and produces a posterior probability that each candidate will win each state. From this, a dynamic programming algorithm is used to compute the probability mass functions for the number of electoral votes that each presidential candidate receives and the number of Senate seats that each party receives. On the final day before the 2012 election, the model gave a probability of (essentially one that President Obama would be reelected, and that the Democrats would retain control of the U.S. Senate. In 2014, the model gave a final probability of .99 that the Republicans would take control of the Senate.

  1. Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom

    2013-02-01

    Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.

  2. A Fast Iterative Bayesian Inference Algorithm for Sparse Channel Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Fleury, Bernard Henri

    2013-01-01

    representation of the Bessel K probability density function; a highly efficient, fast iterative Bayesian inference method is then applied to the proposed model. The resulting estimator outperforms other state-of-the-art Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimators, either by yielding lower mean squared estimation error...

  3. A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis : Applications to Developmental Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van de Schoot, Rens|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304833207; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A G|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/081831218

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

  4. A gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis : Applications to developmental research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Schoot, R.; Kaplan, D.; Denissen, J.J.A.; Asendorpf, J.B.; Neyer, F.J.; van Aken, M.A.G.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

  5. Refinement of Bayesian Network Structures upon New Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Yifeng; Xiang, Yanping; Pacekajus, Saulius

    2010-01-01

    knowledge and every effort must be made in order to extract it. In this paper, we propose a general merging algorithm to deal with situations when new data have different set of attributes. The merging algorithm updates sufficient statistics when new data are received. It expands the flexibility of BN......Refinement of Bayesian network (BN) structures using new data becomes more and more relevant. Some work has been done there; however, one problem has not been considered yet – what to do when new data have fewer or more attributes than the existing model. In both cases, data contain important...... structure refinement methods. The new algorithm is evaluated in extensive experiments and its applications are discussed at length....

  6. 'Chaos' in superregenerative receivers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Commercon, Jean-Claude; Badard, Robert

    2005-01-01

    The superregenerative principle has been known since the early 1920s. The circuit is extremely simple and extremely sensitive. Today, superheterodyne receivers generally supplant superregenerative receivers in most applications because there are several undesirable characteristics: poor selectivity, reradiation, etc. Superregenerative receivers undergo a revival in recent papers for wireless systems, where low cost and very low power consumption are relevant: house/building meters (such as water, energy, gas counter), personal computer environment (keyboard, mouse), etc. Another drawback is the noise level which is higher than that of a well-designed superheterodyne receiver; without an antenna input signal, the output of the receiver hears in an earphone as a waterfall noise; this sound principally is the inherent input noise amplified and detected by the circuit; however, when the input noise is negligible with respect of an antenna input signal, we are faced to an other source of 'noise' self-generated by the superregenerative working. The main objective of this paper concerns this self-generated noise coming from an exponential growing followed by a re-injection process for which the final state is a function of the phase of the input signal

  7. Posterior consistency for Bayesian inverse problems through stability and regression results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vollmer, Sebastian J

    2013-01-01

    In the Bayesian approach, the a priori knowledge about the input of a mathematical model is described via a probability measure. The joint distribution of the unknown input and the data is then conditioned, using Bayes’ formula, giving rise to the posterior distribution on the unknown input. In this setting we prove posterior consistency for nonlinear inverse problems: a sequence of data is considered, with diminishing fluctuations around a single truth and it is then of interest to show that the resulting sequence of posterior measures arising from this sequence of data concentrates around the truth used to generate the data. Posterior consistency justifies the use of the Bayesian approach very much in the same way as error bounds and convergence results for regularization techniques do. As a guiding example, we consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the diffusion coefficient from noisy observations of the solution to an elliptic PDE in divergence form. This problem is approached by splitting the forward operator into the underlying continuum model and a simpler observation operator based on the output of the model. In general, these splittings allow us to conclude posterior consistency provided a deterministic stability result for the underlying inverse problem and a posterior consistency result for the Bayesian regression problem with the push-forward prior. Moreover, we prove posterior consistency for the Bayesian regression problem based on the regularity, the tail behaviour and the small ball probabilities of the prior. (paper)

  8. Central solar energy receiver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drost, M. Kevin

    1983-01-01

    An improved tower-mounted central solar energy receiver for heating air drawn through the receiver by an induced draft fan. A number of vertically oriented, energy absorbing, fin-shaped slats are radially arranged in a number of concentric cylindrical arrays on top of the tower coaxially surrounding a pipe having air holes through which the fan draws air which is heated by the slats which receive the solar radiation from a heliostat field. A number of vertically oriented and wedge-shaped columns are radially arranged in a number of concentric cylindrical clusters surrounding the slat arrays. The columns have two mirror-reflecting sides to reflect radiation into the slat arrays and one energy absorbing side to reduce reradiation and reflection from the slat arrays.

  9. Two-stage Bayesian models-application to ZEDB project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunea, C.; Charitos, T.; Cooke, R.M.; Becker, G.

    2005-01-01

    A well-known mathematical tool to analyze plant specific reliability data for nuclear power facilities is the two-stage Bayesian model. Such two-stage Bayesian models are standard practice nowadays, for example in the German ZEDB project or in the Swedish T-Book, although they may differ in their mathematical models and software implementation. In this paper, we review the mathematical model, its underlying assumptions and supporting arguments. Reasonable conditional assumptions are made to yield tractable and mathematically valid form for the failure rate at plant of interest, given failures and operational times at other plants in the population. The posterior probability of failure rate at plant of interest is sensitive to the choice of hyperprior parameters since the effect of hyperprior distribution will never be dominated by the effect of observation. The methods of Poern and Jeffrey for choosing distributions over hyperparameters are discussed. Furthermore, we will perform verification tasks associated with the theoretical model presented in this paper. The present software implementation produces good agreement with ZEDB results for various prior distributions. The difference between our results and those of ZEDB reflect differences that may arise from numerical implementation, as that would use different step size and truncation bounds

  10. DATMAN: A reliability data analysis program using Bayesian updating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, M.; Feltus, M.A.

    1996-01-01

    Preventive maintenance (PM) techniques focus on the prevention of failures, in particular, system components that are important to plant functions. Reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) improves on the PM techniques by introducing a set of guidelines by which to evaluate the system functions. It also minimizes intrusive maintenance, labor, and equipment downtime without sacrificing system performance when its function is essential for plant safety. Both the PM and RCM approaches require that system reliability data be updated as more component failures and operation time are acquired. Systems reliability and the likelihood of component failures can be calculated by Bayesian statistical methods, which can update these data. The DATMAN computer code has been developed at Penn State to simplify the Bayesian analysis by performing tedious calculations needed for RCM reliability analysis. DATMAN reads data for updating, fits a distribution that best fits the data, and calculates component reliability. DATMAN provides a user-friendly interface menu that allows the user to choose from several common prior and posterior distributions, insert new failure data, and visually select the distribution that matches the data most accurately

  11. Inferring on the intentions of others by hierarchical Bayesian learning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea O Diaconescu

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Inferring on others' (potentially time-varying intentions is a fundamental problem during many social transactions. To investigate the underlying mechanisms, we applied computational modeling to behavioral data from an economic game in which 16 pairs of volunteers (randomly assigned to "player" or "adviser" roles interacted. The player performed a probabilistic reinforcement learning task, receiving information about a binary lottery from a visual pie chart. The adviser, who received more predictive information, issued an additional recommendation. Critically, the game was structured such that the adviser's incentives to provide helpful or misleading information varied in time. Using a meta-Bayesian modeling framework, we found that the players' behavior was best explained by the deployment of hierarchical learning: they inferred upon the volatility of the advisers' intentions in order to optimize their predictions about the validity of their advice. Beyond learning, volatility estimates also affected the trial-by-trial variability of decisions: participants were more likely to rely on their estimates of advice accuracy for making choices when they believed that the adviser's intentions were presently stable. Finally, our model of the players' inference predicted the players' interpersonal reactivity index (IRI scores, explicit ratings of the advisers' helpfulness and the advisers' self-reports on their chosen strategy. Overall, our results suggest that humans (i employ hierarchical generative models to infer on the changing intentions of others, (ii use volatility estimates to inform decision-making in social interactions, and (iii integrate estimates of advice accuracy with non-social sources of information. The Bayesian framework presented here can quantify individual differences in these mechanisms from simple behavioral readouts and may prove useful in future clinical studies of maladaptive social cognition.

  12. Bayesian noninferiority test for 2 binomial probabilities as the extension of Fisher exact test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doi, Masaaki; Takahashi, Fumihiro; Kawasaki, Yohei

    2017-12-30

    Noninferiority trials have recently gained importance for the clinical trials of drugs and medical devices. In these trials, most statistical methods have been used from a frequentist perspective, and historical data have been used only for the specification of the noninferiority margin Δ>0. In contrast, Bayesian methods, which have been studied recently are advantageous in that they can use historical data to specify prior distributions and are expected to enable more efficient decision making than frequentist methods by borrowing information from historical trials. In the case of noninferiority trials for response probabilities π 1 ,π 2 , Bayesian methods evaluate the posterior probability of H 1 :π 1 >π 2 -Δ being true. To numerically calculate such posterior probability, complicated Appell hypergeometric function or approximation methods are used. Further, the theoretical relationship between Bayesian and frequentist methods is unclear. In this work, we give the exact expression of the posterior probability of the noninferiority under some mild conditions and propose the Bayesian noninferiority test framework which can flexibly incorporate historical data by using the conditional power prior. Further, we show the relationship between Bayesian posterior probability and the P value of the Fisher exact test. From this relationship, our method can be interpreted as the Bayesian noninferior extension of the Fisher exact test, and we can treat superiority and noninferiority in the same framework. Our method is illustrated through Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the operating characteristics, the application to the real HIV clinical trial data, and the sample size calculation using historical data. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. A Bayesian perspective on some replacement strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazzuchi, Thomas A.; Soyer, Refik

    1996-01-01

    In this paper we present a Bayesian decision theoretic approach for determining optimal replacement strategies. This approach enables us to formally incorporate, express, and update our uncertainty when determining optimal replacement strategies. We develop relevant expressions for both the block replacement protocol with minimal repair and the age replacement protocol and illustrate the use of our approach with real data

  14. Sequential Bayesian technique: An alternative approach for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper proposes a sequential Bayesian approach similar to Kalman filter for estimating reliability growth or decay of software. The main advantage of proposed method is that it shows the variation of the parameter over a time, as new failure data become available. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated with ...

  15. Theory change and Bayesian statistical inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romeijn, Jan-Willem

    2005-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem that Bayesian statistical inference cannot accommodate theory change, and proposes a framework for dealing with such changes. It first presents a scheme for generating predictions from observations by means of hypotheses. An example shows how the hypotheses represent

  16. Bayesian mixture models for partially verified data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kostoulas, Polychronis; Browne, William J.; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian mixture models can be used to discriminate between the distributions of continuous test responses for different infection stages. These models are particularly useful in case of chronic infections with a long latent period, like Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection...

  17. Non-Linear Approximation of Bayesian Update

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2016-06-23

    We develop a non-linear approximation of expensive Bayesian formula. This non-linear approximation is applied directly to Polynomial Chaos Coefficients. In this way, we avoid Monte Carlo sampling and sampling error. We can show that the famous Kalman Update formula is a particular case of this update.

  18. Comparison between Fisherian and Bayesian approach to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... of its simplicity and optimality properties is normally used for two group cases. However, Bayesian approach is found to be better than Fisher's approach because of its low misclassification error rate. Keywords: variance-covariance matrices, centroids, prior probability, mahalanobis distance, probability of misclassification ...

  19. Neural network classification - A Bayesian interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Eric A.

    1990-01-01

    The relationship between minimizing a mean squared error and finding the optimal Bayesian classifier is reviewed. This provides a theoretical interpretation for the process by which neural networks are used in classification. A number of confidence measures are proposed to evaluate the performance of the neural network classifier within a statistical framework.

  20. Bayesian Estimation of Item Response Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutakawa, Robert K.; Lin, Hsin Ying

    1986-01-01

    Item response curves for a set of binary responses are studied from a Bayesian viewpoint of estimating the item parameters. For the two-parameter logistic model with normally distributed ability, restricted bivariate beta priors are used to illustrate the computation of the posterior mode via the EM algorithm. (Author/LMO)

  1. Speech Segmentation Using Bayesian Autoregressive Changepoint Detector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Sovka

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available This submission is devoted to the study of the Bayesian autoregressive changepoint detector (BCD and its use for speech segmentation. Results of the detector application to autoregressive signals as well as to real speech are given. BCD basic properties are described and discussed. The novel two-step algorithm consisting of cepstral analysis and BCD for automatic speech segmentation is suggested.

  2. Bayesian networks: a combined tuning heuristic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolt, J.H.

    2016-01-01

    One of the issues in tuning an output probability of a Bayesian network by changing multiple parameters is the relative amount of the individual parameter changes. In an existing heuristic parameters are tied such that their changes induce locally a maximal change of the tuned probability. This

  3. Exploiting structure in cooperative Bayesian games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oliehoek, F.A.; Whiteson, S.; Spaan, M.T.J.; de Freitas, N.; Murphy, K.

    2012-01-01

    Cooperative Bayesian games (BGs) can model decision-making problems for teams of agents under imperfect information, but require space and computation time that is exponential in the number of agents. While agent independence has been used to mitigate these problems in perfect information settings,

  4. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255 (United States); Coc, A. [Centre de Sciences Nucléaires et de Sciences de la Matière (CSNSM), CNRS/IN2P3, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris–Saclay, Bâtiment 104, F-91405 Orsay Campus (France); Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S., E-mail: iliadis@unc.edu [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1504 (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.

  5. An Approximate Bayesian Fundamental Frequency Estimator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Kjær; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Jensen, Søren Holdt

    2012-01-01

    Joint fundamental frequency and model order estimation is an important problem in several applications such as speech and music processing. In this paper, we develop an approximate estimation algorithm of these quantities using Bayesian inference. The inference about the fundamental frequency...

  6. Erratum Bayesian and Dempster–Shafer fusion

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    (1) The paper “Bayesian and Dempster–Shafer fusion” contains a mistake in Appendix A, although this has not affected anything in the body of the paper. On page 172, the authors state correctly that the matrix F is, in general, not square, but then in (A.22) they take its determinant. This confusion resulted because the ...

  7. On local optima in learning bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Jens; Kocka, Tomas; Pena, Jose

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes and evaluates the k-greedy equivalence search algorithm (KES) for learning Bayesian networks (BNs) from complete data. The main characteristic of KES is that it allows a trade-off between greediness and randomness, thus exploring different good local optima. When greediness...

  8. Comprehension and computation in Bayesian problem solving

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric D. Johnson

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Humans have long been characterized as poor probabilistic reasoners when presented with explicit numerical information. Bayesian word problems provide a well-known example of this, where even highly educated and cognitively skilled individuals fail to adhere to mathematical norms. It is widely agreed that natural frequencies can facilitate Bayesian reasoning relative to normalized formats (e.g. probabilities, percentages, both by clarifying logical set-subset relations and by simplifying numerical calculations. Nevertheless, between-study performance on transparent Bayesian problems varies widely, and generally remains rather unimpressive. We suggest there has been an over-focus on this representational facilitator (i.e. transparent problem structures at the expense of the specific logical and numerical processing requirements and the corresponding individual abilities and skills necessary for providing Bayesian-like output given specific verbal and numerical input. We further suggest that understanding this task-individual pair could benefit from considerations from the literature on mathematical cognition, which emphasizes text comprehension and problem solving, along with contributions of online executive working memory, metacognitive regulation, and relevant stored knowledge and skills. We conclude by offering avenues for future research aimed at identifying the stages in problem solving at which correct versus incorrect reasoners depart, and how individual difference might influence this time point.

  9. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian networks for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... how these two computer aided methods may be combined to better facilitate modelling procedures. A simple example is presented, concerning a recent application in the field of environmental decision support. Keywords: Morphological analysis, Bayesian networks, strategic decision support. ORiON Vol. 23 (2) 2007: pp.

  10. Approximate Bayesian evaluations of measurement uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Possolo, Antonio; Bodnar, Olha

    2018-04-01

    The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) includes formulas that produce an estimate of a scalar output quantity that is a function of several input quantities, and an approximate evaluation of the associated standard uncertainty. This contribution presents approximate, Bayesian counterparts of those formulas for the case where the output quantity is a parameter of the joint probability distribution of the input quantities, also taking into account any information about the value of the output quantity available prior to measurement expressed in the form of a probability distribution on the set of possible values for the measurand. The approximate Bayesian estimates and uncertainty evaluations that we present have a long history and illustrious pedigree, and provide sufficiently accurate approximations in many applications, yet are very easy to implement in practice. Differently from exact Bayesian estimates, which involve either (analytical or numerical) integrations, or Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, the approximations that we describe involve only numerical optimization and simple algebra. Therefore, they make Bayesian methods widely accessible to metrologists. We illustrate the application of the proposed techniques in several instances of measurement: isotopic ratio of silver in a commercial silver nitrate; odds of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients; height of a manometer column; mass fraction of chromium in a reference material; and potential-difference in a Zener voltage standard.

  11. Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Coefficient Alpha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brannick, Michael T.; Zhang, Nanhua

    2013-01-01

    The current paper describes and illustrates a Bayesian approach to the meta-analysis of coefficient alpha. Alpha is the most commonly used estimate of the reliability or consistency (freedom from measurement error) for educational and psychological measures. The conventional approach to meta-analysis uses inverse variance weights to combine…

  12. Theory Change and Bayesian Statistical Inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romeyn, Jan-Willem

    2008-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem that Bayesian statistical inference cannot accommodate theory change, and proposes a framework for dealing with such changes. It first presents a scheme for generating predictions from observations by means of hypotheses. An example shows how the hypotheses represent

  13. Heuristics as Bayesian inference under extreme priors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parpart, Paula; Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

    2018-05-01

    Simple heuristics are often regarded as tractable decision strategies because they ignore a great deal of information in the input data. One puzzle is why heuristics can outperform full-information models, such as linear regression, which make full use of the available information. These "less-is-more" effects, in which a relatively simpler model outperforms a more complex model, are prevalent throughout cognitive science, and are frequently argued to demonstrate an inherent advantage of simplifying computation or ignoring information. In contrast, we show at the computational level (where algorithmic restrictions are set aside) that it is never optimal to discard information. Through a formal Bayesian analysis, we prove that popular heuristics, such as tallying and take-the-best, are formally equivalent to Bayesian inference under the limit of infinitely strong priors. Varying the strength of the prior yields a continuum of Bayesian models with the heuristics at one end and ordinary regression at the other. Critically, intermediate models perform better across all our simulations, suggesting that down-weighting information with the appropriate prior is preferable to entirely ignoring it. Rather than because of their simplicity, our analyses suggest heuristics perform well because they implement strong priors that approximate the actual structure of the environment. We end by considering how new heuristics could be derived by infinitely strengthening the priors of other Bayesian models. These formal results have implications for work in psychology, machine learning and economics. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Default Bayesian Estimation of the Fundamental Frequency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Kjær; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Jensen, Søren Holdt

    2013-01-01

    Joint fundamental frequency and model order esti- mation is an important problem in several applications. In this paper, a default estimation algorithm based on a minimum of prior information is presented. The algorithm is developed in a Bayesian framework, and it can be applied to both real...

  15. Error probabilities in default Bayesian hypothesis testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gu, Xin; Hoijtink, Herbert; Mulder, J,

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the classical type I and type II error probabilities of default Bayes factors for a Bayesian t test. Default Bayes factors quantify the relative evidence between the null hypothesis and the unrestricted alternative hypothesis without needing to specify prior distributions for

  16. Forecasting nuclear power supply with Bayesian autoregression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.; Solow, J.L.

    1994-01-01

    We explore the possibility of forecasting the quarterly US generation of electricity from nuclear power using a Bayesian autoregression model. In terms of forecasting accuracy, this approach compares favorably with both the Department of Energy's current forecasting methodology and their more recent efforts using ARIMA models, and it is extremely easy and inexpensive to implement. (author)

  17. Bayesian Benefits for the Pragmatic Researcher

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagenmakers, E.-J.; Morey, R.D.; Lee, M.D.

    2016-01-01

    The practical advantages of Bayesian inference are demonstrated here through two concrete examples. In the first example, we wish to learn about a criminal’s IQ: a problem of parameter estimation. In the second example, we wish to quantify and track support in favor of the null hypothesis that Adam

  18. Bayesian evaluation of inequality constrained hypotheses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gu, X.; Mulder, J.; Deković, M.; Hoijtink, H.

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian evaluation of inequality constrained hypotheses enables researchers to investigate their expectations with respect to the structure among model parameters. This article proposes an approximate Bayes procedure that can be used for the selection of the best of a set of inequality constrained

  19. Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrante, Luigi; Skrami, Edlira; Gesuita, Rosaria; Cameriere, Roberto

    2015-05-10

    Forensic medicine is increasingly called upon to assess the age of individuals. Forensic age estimation is mostly required in relation to illegal immigration and identification of bodies or skeletal remains. A variety of age estimation methods are based on dental samples and use of regression models, where the age of an individual is predicted by morphological tooth changes that take place over time. From the medico-legal point of view, regression models, with age as the dependent random variable entail that age tends to be overestimated in the young and underestimated in the old. To overcome this bias, we describe a new full Bayesian calibration method (asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration) for forensic age estimation that uses asymmetric Laplace distribution as the probability model. The method was compared with three existing approaches (two Bayesian and a classical method) using simulated data. Although its accuracy was comparable with that of the other methods, the asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration appears to be significantly more reliable and robust in case of misspecification of the probability model. The proposed method was also applied to a real dataset of values of the pulp chamber of the right lower premolar measured on x-ray scans of individuals of known age. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Low Complexity Bayesian Single Channel Source Separation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beierholm, Thomas; Pedersen, Brian Dam; Winther, Ole

    2004-01-01

    We propose a simple Bayesian model for performing single channel speech separation using factorized source priors in a sliding window linearly transformed domain. Using a one dimensional mixture of Gaussians to model each band source leads to fast tractable inference for the source signals. Simul...

  1. Evidence Estimation for Bayesian Partially Observed MRFs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Y.; Welling, M.

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian estimation in Markov random fields is very hard due to the intractability of the partition function. The introduction of hidden units makes the situation even worse due to the presence of potentially very many modes in the posterior distribution. For the first time we propose a

  2. Quantifying Registration Uncertainty With Sparse Bayesian Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Folgoc, Loic; Delingette, Herve; Criminisi, Antonio; Ayache, Nicholas

    2017-02-01

    We investigate uncertainty quantification under a sparse Bayesian model of medical image registration. Bayesian modelling has proven powerful to automate the tuning of registration hyperparameters, such as the trade-off between the data and regularization functionals. Sparsity-inducing priors have recently been used to render the parametrization itself adaptive and data-driven. The sparse prior on transformation parameters effectively favors the use of coarse basis functions to capture the global trends in the visible motion while finer, highly localized bases are introduced only in the presence of coherent image information and motion. In earlier work, approximate inference under the sparse Bayesian model was tackled in an efficient Variational Bayes (VB) framework. In this paper we are interested in the theoretical and empirical quality of uncertainty estimates derived under this approximate scheme vs. under the exact model. We implement an (asymptotically) exact inference scheme based on reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to characterize the posterior distribution of the transformation and compare the predictions of the VB and MCMC based methods. The true posterior distribution under the sparse Bayesian model is found to be meaningful: orders of magnitude for the estimated uncertainty are quantitatively reasonable, the uncertainty is higher in textureless regions and lower in the direction of strong intensity gradients.

  3. Adaptive bayesian analysis for binomial proportions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Das, Sonali

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The authors consider the problem of statistical inference of binomial proportions for non-matched, correlated samples, under the Bayesian framework. Such inference can arise when the same group is observed at a different number of times with the aim...

  4. Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

    KAUST Repository

    Matthies, Hermann G.

    2016-02-13

    In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.

  5. A planar quasi-optical SIS receiver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stimson, Philip A.; Dengler, Robert J.; Leduc, Henry G.; Cypher, Scott R.; Siegel, Peter H.

    1993-01-01

    A planar, quasi-optical SIS receiver operating at 230 GHz is described. The receiver consists of a 2 x 5 array of half wave dipole antennas with ten niobium-aluminum oxide-niobium SIS junctions on a quartz dielectric-filled parabola. The 1.4 GHz intermediate frequency is coupled from the mixer via coplanar strip transmission lines and 4:1 balun transformers. The receiver is operated at 4.2 K in a liquid helium immersion cryostat. We report accurate measurements of the performance of single receiver elements. A mixer noise temperature of 89 K DSB, receiver noise temperature of 156 K DSB, and conversion loss of 3 dB into a matched load have been obtained.

  6. DMSK Receiver For Mobile/Satellite Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davarian, Faramaz; Simon, Marvin K.; Sumida, Joe T.

    1989-01-01

    Receiver for 2.4-kbit/s differential minimum-shift keying (DMSK) and Gaussian minimum-shift keying(GMSK) suitable for communication between land-mobile stations via geostationary satellites. Operating on phase-shifted signal in 800-MHz band, in presence of fading and Doppler frequency shifts, receiver compact, makes efficient use of frequency spectrum, and wastes little power. Receiver design implemented in very-large-scale-integrated circuits. Basic DMSK receiver design relies on baseband rather than intermediate-frequency processing of in-phase and quadrature signal components because phase errors due to differential delays smaller at baseband.

  7. Sender-Receiver Games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, R.J.A.P.; Potters, J.A.M.

    1999-01-01

    Standard game-theoretic solution concepts do not guarantee meaningful commu- nication in cheap-talk games. In this paper, we define a solution concept which guarantees communication for a large class of games by designing a behavior pro- tocol which the receiver uses to judge messages sent by the

  8. Learning Local Components to Understand Large Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Yifeng; Xiang, Yanping; Cordero, Jorge

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian networks are known for providing an intuitive and compact representation of probabilistic information and allowing the creation of models over a large and complex domain. Bayesian learning and reasoning are nontrivial for a large Bayesian network. In parallel, it is a tough job for users...... in a domain. We evaluate its performance on three benchmark Bayesian networks and provide results in support. We further show that the learned components may represent local knowledge more precisely in comparison to the full Bayesian networks when working with a small amount of data....

  9. Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Sánchez-Taltavull

    Full Text Available Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities' measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low-especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities' signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset.

  10. Radiation Source Mapping with Bayesian Inverse Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hykes, Joshua Michael

    We present a method to map the spectral and spatial distributions of radioactive sources using a small number of detectors. Locating and identifying radioactive materials is important for border monitoring, accounting for special nuclear material in processing facilities, and in clean-up operations. Most methods to analyze these problems make restrictive assumptions about the distribution of the source. In contrast, the source-mapping method presented here allows an arbitrary three-dimensional distribution in space and a flexible group and gamma peak distribution in energy. To apply the method, the system's geometry and materials must be known. A probabilistic Bayesian approach is used to solve the resulting inverse problem (IP) since the system of equations is ill-posed. The probabilistic approach also provides estimates of the confidence in the final source map prediction. A set of adjoint flux, discrete ordinates solutions, obtained in this work by the Denovo code, are required to efficiently compute detector responses from a candidate source distribution. These adjoint fluxes are then used to form the linear model to map the state space to the response space. The test for the method is simultaneously locating a set of 137Cs and 60Co gamma sources in an empty room. This test problem is solved using synthetic measurements generated by a Monte Carlo (MCNP) model and using experimental measurements that we collected for this purpose. With the synthetic data, the predicted source distributions identified the locations of the sources to within tens of centimeters, in a room with an approximately four-by-four meter floor plan. Most of the predicted source intensities were within a factor of ten of their true value. The chi-square value of the predicted source was within a factor of five from the expected value based on the number of measurements employed. With a favorable uniform initial guess, the predicted source map was nearly identical to the true distribution

  11. Bayesian structural equation modeling in sport and exercise psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenling, Andreas; Ivarsson, Andreas; Johnson, Urban; Lindwall, Magnus

    2015-08-01

    Bayesian statistics is on the rise in mainstream psychology, but applications in sport and exercise psychology research are scarce. In this article, the foundations of Bayesian analysis are introduced, and we will illustrate how to apply Bayesian structural equation modeling in a sport and exercise psychology setting. More specifically, we contrasted a confirmatory factor analysis on the Sport Motivation Scale II estimated with the most commonly used estimator, maximum likelihood, and a Bayesian approach with weakly informative priors for cross-loadings and correlated residuals. The results indicated that the model with Bayesian estimation and weakly informative priors provided a good fit to the data, whereas the model estimated with a maximum likelihood estimator did not produce a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation are discussed as well as potential advantages and caveats with the Bayesian approach.

  12. Bayesian networks in overlay recipe optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binns, Lewis A.; Reynolds, Greg; Rigden, Timothy C.; Watkins, Stephen; Soroka, Andrew

    2005-05-01

    Currently, overlay measurements are characterized by "recipe", which defines both physical parameters such as focus, illumination et cetera, and also the software parameters such as algorithm to be used and regions of interest. Setting up these recipes requires both engineering time and wafer availability on an overlay tool, so reducing these requirements will result in higher tool productivity. One of the significant challenges to automating this process is that the parameters are highly and complexly correlated. At the same time, a high level of traceability and transparency is required in the recipe creation process, so a technique that maintains its decisions in terms of well defined physical parameters is desirable. Running time should be short, given the system (automatic recipe creation) is being implemented to reduce overheads. Finally, a failure of the system to determine acceptable parameters should be obvious, so a certainty metric is also desirable. The complex, nonlinear interactions make solution by an expert system difficult at best, especially in the verification of the resulting decision network. The transparency requirements tend to preclude classical neural networks and similar techniques. Genetic algorithms and other "global minimization" techniques require too much computational power (given system footprint and cost requirements). A Bayesian network, however, provides a solution to these requirements. Such a network, with appropriate priors, can be used during recipe creation / optimization not just to select a good set of parameters, but also to guide the direction of search, by evaluating the network state while only incomplete information is available. As a Bayesian network maintains an estimate of the probability distribution of nodal values, a maximum-entropy approach can be utilized to obtain a working recipe in a minimum or near-minimum number of steps. In this paper we discuss the potential use of a Bayesian network in such a capacity

  13. Can natural selection encode Bayesian priors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez, Juan Camilo; Marshall, James A R

    2017-08-07

    The evolutionary success of many organisms depends on their ability to make decisions based on estimates of the state of their environment (e.g., predation risk) from uncertain information. These decision problems have optimal solutions and individuals in nature are expected to evolve the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if using the optimal solutions. Bayesian inference is the optimal method to produce estimates from uncertain data, thus natural selection is expected to favour individuals with the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if they were computing Bayesian estimates in typically-experienced environments, although this does not necessarily imply that favoured decision-makers do perform Bayesian computations exactly. Each individual should evolve to behave as if updating a prior estimate of the unknown environment variable to a posterior estimate as it collects evidence. The prior estimate represents the decision-maker's default belief regarding the environment variable, i.e., the individual's default 'worldview' of the environment. This default belief has been hypothesised to be shaped by natural selection and represent the environment experienced by the individual's ancestors. We present an evolutionary model to explore how accurately Bayesian prior estimates can be encoded genetically and shaped by natural selection when decision-makers learn from uncertain information. The model simulates the evolution of a population of individuals that are required to estimate the probability of an event. Every individual has a prior estimate of this probability and collects noisy cues from the environment in order to update its prior belief to a Bayesian posterior estimate with the evidence gained. The prior is inherited and passed on to offspring. Fitness increases with the accuracy of the posterior estimates produced. Simulations show that prior estimates become accurate over evolutionary time. In addition to these 'Bayesian' individuals, we also

  14. SUPREMO (Selective Use of Postoperative Radiotherapy aftEr MastectOmy) - a phase III randomised trial assessing the role of postmastectomy chest wall irradiation in 'intermediate risk' women with operable breast cancer receiving adjuvant systemic therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunkler, I.H.; Price, A.; Dixon, M.; Canney, P.; Prescott, R.; Sainsbury, R.; Aird, E.

    2003-01-01

    Danish and Canadian randomised trials of postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) have shown the importance of loco-regional control to survival in 'high risk' pre and postmenopausal women receiving adjuvant systemic therapy. The effects of radiotherapy (RT) in terms of improving survival are similar to those of systemic therapy. International consensus now supports the use of postmastectomy chest wall irradiation in women with 4 or more involved axillary nodes or primary tumour size=/> 5cm. The role of PMRT in women at intermediate risk' with 1-3 involved nodes or node negative with other risk factors is controversial. The absolute reduction in risk of loco-regional recurrence varies widely (3-23%) in trials of PMRT in women with 1-3 involved nodes receiving systemic therapy. A UK survey of clinical oncologists (Kunkler et al,The Breast 1999;8:235) showed wide variations in opinion on the use of radiotherapy in these subgroups. It is possible that while RT may confer most benefit in loco-regional control, a greater survival benefit might accrue in patients with smaller tumours and fewer involved nodes. The 2000 Oxford overview of randomised trials of postoperative RT identifies non breast cancer deaths from RT related vascular morbidity as counterbalancing the benefits of RT in reducing breast cancer mortality. With the more extensive use of potentially cardiotoxic anthracycline containing adjuvant systemic therapy there are concerns about greater cardiac morbidity in patients receiving PMRT in addition. A large randomised international trial (SUPREMO) is proposed to recruit 3500 patients with (a) 1-3 involved axillary nodes or (b) node negative with other risk factors (grade 3 or lymphovascular invasion) treated by mastectomy, axillary clearance and appropriate systemic therapy for T0-3,N0-1,MO breast cancer. The primary endpoint is overall survival. Secondary endpoints are disease free survival, quality of life, morbidity (including cardiac), cost per life year saved

  15. Characterizing the Nash equilibria of three-player Bayesian quantum games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solmeyer, Neal; Balu, Radhakrishnan

    2017-05-01

    Quantum games with incomplete information can be studied within a Bayesian framework. We analyze games quantized within the EWL framework [Eisert, Wilkens, and Lewenstein, Phys Rev. Lett. 83, 3077 (1999)]. We solve for the Nash equilibria of a variety of two-player quantum games and compare the results to the solutions of the corresponding classical games. We then analyze Bayesian games where there is uncertainty about the player types in two-player conflicting interest games. The solutions to the Bayesian games are found to have a phase diagram-like structure where different equilibria exist in different parameter regions, depending both on the amount of uncertainty and the degree of entanglement. We find that in games where a Pareto-optimal solution is not a Nash equilibrium, it is possible for the quantized game to have an advantage over the classical version. In addition, we analyze the behavior of the solutions as the strategy choices approach an unrestricted operation. We find that some games have a continuum of solutions, bounded by the solutions of a simpler restricted game. A deeper understanding of Bayesian quantum game theory could lead to novel quantum applications in a multi-agent setting.

  16. Radiation dose reduction in computed tomography perfusion using spatial-temporal Bayesian methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Ruogu; Raj, Ashish; Chen, Tsuhan; Sanelli, Pina C.

    2012-03-01

    In current computed tomography (CT) examinations, the associated X-ray radiation dose is of significant concern to patients and operators, especially CT perfusion (CTP) imaging that has higher radiation dose due to its cine scanning technique. A simple and cost-effective means to perform the examinations is to lower the milliampere-seconds (mAs) parameter as low as reasonably achievable in data acquisition. However, lowering the mAs parameter will unavoidably increase data noise and degrade CT perfusion maps greatly if no adequate noise control is applied during image reconstruction. To capture the essential dynamics of CT perfusion, a simple spatial-temporal Bayesian method that uses a piecewise parametric model of the residual function is used, and then the model parameters are estimated from a Bayesian formulation of prior smoothness constraints on perfusion parameters. From the fitted residual function, reliable CTP parameter maps are obtained from low dose CT data. The merit of this scheme exists in the combination of analytical piecewise residual function with Bayesian framework using a simpler prior spatial constrain for CT perfusion application. On a dataset of 22 patients, this dynamic spatial-temporal Bayesian model yielded an increase in signal-tonoise-ratio (SNR) of 78% and a decrease in mean-square-error (MSE) of 40% at low dose radiation of 43mA.

  17. Message-Passing Receiver for OFDM Systems over Highly Delay-Dispersive Channels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barbu, Oana-Elena; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Rom, Christian

    2017-01-01

    Propagation channels with maximum excess delay exceeding the duration of the cyclic prefix (CP) in OFDM systems cause intercarrier and intersymbol interference which, unless accounted for, degrade the receiver performance. Using tools from Bayesian inference and sparse signal reconstruction, we...... and future wireless communications systems. By enabling the OFDM receiver experiencing these harsh conditions to locally cancel the interference, our design circumvents the spectral efficiency loss incurred by extending the CP duration, otherwise a straightforward solution. Furthermore, it sets the premises...

  18. Ultra-wideband receiver

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEwan, Thomas E.

    1994-01-01

    An ultra-wideband (UWB) receiver utilizes a strobed input line with a sampler connected to an amplifier. In a differential configuration, .+-.UWB inputs are connected to separate antennas or to two halves of a dipole antenna. The two input lines include samplers which are commonly strobed by a gating pulse with a very low duty cycle. In a single ended configuration, only a single strobed input line and sampler is utilized. The samplers integrate, or average, up to 10,000 pulses to achieve high sensitivity and good rejection of uncorrelated signals.

  19. Bayesian Modelling of Functional Whole Brain Connectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røge, Rasmus

    This thesis deals with parcellation of whole-brain functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) using Bayesian inference with mixture models tailored to the fMRI data. In the three included papers and manuscripts, we analyze two different approaches to modeling fMRI signal; either we accept...... the prevalent strategy of standardizing of fMRI time series and model data using directional statistics or we model the variability in the signal across the brain and across multiple subjects. In either case, we use Bayesian nonparametric modeling to automatically learn from the fMRI data the number...... of funcional units, i.e. parcels. We benchmark the proposed mixture models against state of the art methods of brain parcellation, both probabilistic and non-probabilistic. The time series of each voxel are most often standardized using z-scoring which projects the time series data onto a hypersphere...

  20. Bayesian Peak Picking for NMR Spectra

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Yichen

    2014-02-01

    Protein structure determination is a very important topic in structural genomics, which helps people to understand varieties of biological functions such as protein-protein interactions, protein–DNA interactions and so on. Nowadays, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) has often been used to determine the three-dimensional structures of protein in vivo. This study aims to automate the peak picking step, the most important and tricky step in NMR structure determination. We propose to model the NMR spectrum by a mixture of bivariate Gaussian densities and use the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm as the computational tool to solve the problem. Under the Bayesian framework, the peak picking problem is casted as a variable selection problem. The proposed method can automatically distinguish true peaks from false ones without preprocessing the data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort in the literature that tackles the peak picking problem for NMR spectrum data using Bayesian method.

  1. Structure Learning in Bayesian Sensorimotor Integration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Genewein

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have shown that sensorimotor processing can often be described by Bayesian learning, in particular the integration of prior and feedback information depending on its degree of reliability. Here we test the hypothesis that the integration process itself can be tuned to the statistical structure of the environment. We exposed human participants to a reaching task in a three-dimensional virtual reality environment where we could displace the visual feedback of their hand position in a two dimensional plane. When introducing statistical structure between the two dimensions of the displacement, we found that over the course of several days participants adapted their feedback integration process in order to exploit this structure for performance improvement. In control experiments we found that this adaptation process critically depended on performance feedback and could not be induced by verbal instructions. Our results suggest that structural learning is an important meta-learning component of Bayesian sensorimotor integration.

  2. Machine learning a Bayesian and optimization perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Theodoridis, Sergios

    2015-01-01

    This tutorial text gives a unifying perspective on machine learning by covering both probabilistic and deterministic approaches, which rely on optimization techniques, as well as Bayesian inference, which is based on a hierarchy of probabilistic models. The book presents the major machine learning methods as they have been developed in different disciplines, such as statistics, statistical and adaptive signal processing and computer science. Focusing on the physical reasoning behind the mathematics, all the various methods and techniques are explained in depth, supported by examples and problems, giving an invaluable resource to the student and researcher for understanding and applying machine learning concepts. The book builds carefully from the basic classical methods to the most recent trends, with chapters written to be as self-contained as possible, making the text suitable for different courses: pattern recognition, statistical/adaptive signal processing, statistical/Bayesian learning, as well as shor...

  3. Bayesian image reconstruction: Application to emission tomography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nunez, J.; Llacer, J.

    1989-02-01

    In this paper we propose a Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) method of image reconstruction in the Bayesian framework for the Poisson noise case. We use entropy to define the prior probability and likelihood to define the conditional probability. The method uses sharpness parameters which can be theoretically computed or adjusted, allowing us to obtain MAP reconstructions without the problem of the grey'' reconstructions associated with the pre Bayesian reconstructions. We have developed several ways to solve the reconstruction problem and propose a new iterative algorithm which is stable, maintains positivity and converges to feasible images faster than the Maximum Likelihood Estimate method. We have successfully applied the new method to the case of Emission Tomography, both with simulated and real data. 41 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.

  4. Distributed Bayesian Networks for User Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tedesco, Roberto; Dolog, Peter; Nejdl, Wolfgang

    2006-01-01

    The World Wide Web is a popular platform for providing eLearning applications to a wide spectrum of users. However – as users differ in their preferences, background, requirements, and goals – applications should provide personalization mechanisms. In the Web context, user models used...... by such adaptive applications are often partial fragments of an overall user model. The fragments have then to be collected and merged into a global user profile. In this paper we investigate and present algorithms able to cope with distributed, fragmented user models – based on Bayesian Networks – in the context...... of Web-based eLearning platforms. The scenario we are tackling assumes learners who use several systems over time, which are able to create partial Bayesian Networks for user models based on the local system context. In particular, we focus on how to merge these partial user models. Our merge mechanism...

  5. Bayesian long branch attraction bias and corrections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susko, Edward

    2015-03-01

    Previous work on the star-tree paradox has shown that Bayesian methods suffer from a long branch attraction bias. That work is extended to settings involving more taxa and partially resolved trees. The long branch attraction bias is confirmed to arise more broadly and an additional source of bias is found. A by-product of the analysis is methods that correct for biases toward particular topologies. The corrections can be easily calculated using existing Bayesian software. Posterior support for a set of two or more trees can thus be supplemented with corrected versions to cross-check or replace results. Simulations show the corrections to be highly effective. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Bayesian Peak Picking for NMR Spectra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yichen Cheng

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Protein structure determination is a very important topic in structural genomics, which helps people to understand varieties of biological functions such as protein-protein interactions, protein–DNA interactions and so on. Nowadays, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR has often been used to determine the three-dimensional structures of protein in vivo. This study aims to automate the peak picking step, the most important and tricky step in NMR structure determination. We propose to model the NMR spectrum by a mixture of bivariate Gaussian densities and use the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm as the computational tool to solve the problem. Under the Bayesian framework, the peak picking problem is casted as a variable selection problem. The proposed method can automatically distinguish true peaks from false ones without preprocessing the data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort in the literature that tackles the peak picking problem for NMR spectrum data using Bayesian method.

  7. Bayesianism and inference to the best explanation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriano IRANZO

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Bayesianism and Inference to the best explanation (IBE are two different models of inference. Recently there has been some debate about the possibility of “bayesianizing” IBE. Firstly I explore several alternatives to include explanatory considerations in Bayes’s Theorem. Then I distinguish two different interpretations of prior probabilities: “IBE-Bayesianism” (IBE-Bay and “frequentist-Bayesianism” (Freq-Bay. After detailing the content of the latter, I propose a rule for assessing the priors. I also argue that Freq-Bay: (i endorses a role for explanatory value in the assessment of scientific hypotheses; (ii avoids a purely subjectivist reading of prior probabilities; and (iii fits better than IBE-Bayesianism with two basic facts about science, i.e., the prominent role played by empirical testing and the existence of many scientific theories in the past that failed to fulfil their promises and were subsequently abandoned.

  8. Disentangling Complexity in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Gheorghe; Adam, Sanda

    2018-02-01

    The paper describes a Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature (BAAQ) solution for numerical integration which is simultaneously robust, reliable, and efficient. Detailed discussion is provided of three main factors which contribute to the enhancement of these features: (1) refinement of the m-panel automatic adaptive scheme through the use of integration-domain-length-scale-adapted quadrature sums; (2) fast early problem complexity assessment - enables the non-transitive choice among three execution paths: (i) immediate termination (exceptional cases); (ii) pessimistic - involves time and resource consuming Bayesian inference resulting in radical reformulation of the problem to be solved; (iii) optimistic - asks exclusively for subrange subdivision by bisection; (3) use of the weaker accuracy target from the two possible ones (the input accuracy specifications and the intrinsic integrand properties respectively) - results in maximum possible solution accuracy under minimum possible computing time.

  9. Bayesian information fusion networks for biosurveillance applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mnatsakanyan, Zaruhi R; Burkom, Howard S; Coberly, Jacqueline S; Lombardo, Joseph S

    2009-01-01

    This study introduces new information fusion algorithms to enhance disease surveillance systems with Bayesian decision support capabilities. A detection system was built and tested using chief complaints from emergency department visits, International Classification of Diseases Revision 9 (ICD-9) codes from records of outpatient visits to civilian and military facilities, and influenza surveillance data from health departments in the National Capital Region (NCR). Data anomalies were identified and distribution of time offsets between events in the multiple data streams were established. The Bayesian Network was built to fuse data from multiple sources and identify influenza-like epidemiologically relevant events. Results showed increased specificity compared with the alerts generated by temporal anomaly detection algorithms currently deployed by NCR health departments. Further research should be done to investigate correlations between data sources for efficient fusion of the collected data.

  10. Modelling dependable systems using hybrid Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neil, Martin; Tailor, Manesh; Marquez, David; Fenton, Norman; Hearty, Peter

    2008-01-01

    A hybrid Bayesian network (BN) is one that incorporates both discrete and continuous nodes. In our extensive applications of BNs for system dependability assessment, the models are invariably hybrid and the need for efficient and accurate computation is paramount. We apply a new iterative algorithm that efficiently combines dynamic discretisation with robust propagation algorithms on junction tree structures to perform inference in hybrid BNs. We illustrate its use in the field of dependability with two example of reliability estimation. Firstly we estimate the reliability of a simple single system and next we implement a hierarchical Bayesian model. In the hierarchical model we compute the reliability of two unknown subsystems from data collected on historically similar subsystems and then input the result into a reliability block model to compute system level reliability. We conclude that dynamic discretisation can be used as an alternative to analytical or Monte Carlo methods with high precision and can be applied to a wide range of dependability problems

  11. Probabilistic forecasting and Bayesian data assimilation

    CERN Document Server

    Reich, Sebastian

    2015-01-01

    In this book the authors describe the principles and methods behind probabilistic forecasting and Bayesian data assimilation. Instead of focusing on particular application areas, the authors adopt a general dynamical systems approach, with a profusion of low-dimensional, discrete-time numerical examples designed to build intuition about the subject. Part I explains the mathematical framework of ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty quantification. Part II is devoted to Bayesian filtering algorithms, from classical data assimilation algorithms such as the Kalman filter, variational techniques, and sequential Monte Carlo methods, through to more recent developments such as the ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble transform filters. The McKean approach to sequential filtering in combination with coupling of measures serves as a unifying mathematical framework throughout Part II. Assuming only some basic familiarity with probability, this book is an ideal introduction for graduate students in ap...

  12. Bayesian hypothesis testing: Editorial to the Special Issue on Bayesian data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoijtink, Herbert; Chow, Sy-Miin

    2017-06-01

    In the past 20 years, there has been a steadily increasing attention and demand for Bayesian data analysis across multiple scientific disciplines, including psychology. Bayesian methods and the related Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques offered renewed ways of handling old and challenging new problems that may be difficult or impossible to handle using classical approaches. Yet, such opportunities and potential improvements have not been sufficiently explored and investigated. This is 1 of 2 special issues in Psychological Methods dedicated to the topic of Bayesian data analysis, with an emphasis on Bayesian hypothesis testing, model comparison, and general guidelines for applications in psychology. In this editorial, we provide an overview of the use of Bayesian methods in psychological research and a brief history of the Bayes factor and the posterior predictive p value. Translational abstracts that summarize the articles in this issue in very clear and understandable terms are included in the Appendix. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Essays on portfolio choice with Bayesian methods

    OpenAIRE

    Kebabci, Deniz

    2007-01-01

    How investors should allocate assets to their portfolios in the presence of predictable components in asset returns is a question of great importance in finance. While early studies took the return generating process as given, recent studies have addressed issues such as parameter estimation and model uncertainty. My dissertation develops Bayesian methods for portfolio choice - and industry allocation in particular - under parameter and model uncertainty. The first chapter of my dissertation,...

  14. Characteristic imsets for learning Bayesian network structure

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hemmecke, R.; Lindner, S.; Studený, Milan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 9 (2012), s. 1336-1349 ISSN 0888-613X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M0572; GA ČR GA201/08/0539 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : learning Bayesian network structure * essential graph * standard imset * characteristic imset * LP relaxation of a polytope Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.729, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/MTR/studeny-0382596.pdf

  15. Centralized Bayesian reliability modelling with sensor networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dedecius, Kamil; Sečkárová, Vladimíra

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 5 (2013), s. 471-482 ISSN 1387-3954 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 7D12004 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) SVV-265315 Keywords : Bayesian modelling * Sensor network * Reliability Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 0.984, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/AS/dedecius-0392551.pdf

  16. SAFETY RISK ASSESSMENT USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor M. Rukhlinskiy

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The solution of the problem of modelling and quantitative assessment of flight safety risk is being considered in this paper. The article considers the main groups of mathematical models used to quantify the risks of flight safety, which can be used by providers of aviation services. The authors demonstrate and discuss risk modeling possibilities in the field of flight safety on the basis of Bayesian belief networks.In this paper a mathematical model is built on the basis of identified hazards, and this model allows to determine the level of risk for each hazard and the consequences of their occurrence using Bayesian belief networks, consisting of marginal probability distributions graph and conditional probability tables. This mathematical model allows to determine the following, based on the data on adverse events and hazard identification: the probability of various adverse events in all dangers occurrence, the risk level for each of the identified hazards, the most likely consequences of the given danger oc- currence. For risk modeling in the field of flight safety on the basis of Bayesian belief networks there were used supple- mentary Bayes Net Toolbox for MATLAB with open source. To determine the level of risk in the form specified in ICAO Doc 9859 "Flight Safety Management Manual" of the International Civil Aviation Organization, the authors wrote a func- tion to MATLAB, allowing each pair of probability - to set severity level in line with alphanumeric value and significance of the risk category.Risk model in the field of flight safety on the basis of Bayesian belief networks corresponds to the definition of risk by Kaplan and Garrick. The advantage of the developed risk assessment method over other methods is shown in the paper.

  17. Personalized Audio Systems - a Bayesian Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jens Brehm; Jensen, Bjørn Sand; Hansen, Toke Jansen

    2013-01-01

    , the present paper presents a general inter-active framework for personalization of such audio systems. The framework builds on Bayesian Gaussian process regression in which a model of the users's objective function is updated sequentially. The parameter setting to be evaluated in a given trial is selected...... are optimized using the proposed framework. Twelve test subjects obtain a personalized setting with the framework, and these settings are signicantly preferred to those obtained with random experimentation....

  18. Multilevel Monte Carlo in Approximate Bayesian Computation

    KAUST Repository

    Jasra, Ajay

    2017-02-13

    In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference. We introduce a method for numerically approximating ABC posteriors using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). A sequential Monte Carlo version of the approach is developed and it is shown under some assumptions that for a given level of mean square error, this method for ABC has a lower cost than i.i.d. sampling from the most accurate ABC approximation. Several numerical examples are given.

  19. Dimensionality reduction in Bayesian estimation algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    G. W. Petty

    2013-01-01

    An idealized synthetic database loosely resembling 3-channel passive microwave observations of precipitation against a variable background is employed to examine the performance of a conventional Bayesian retrieval algorithm. For this dataset, algorithm performance is found to be poor owing to an irreconcilable conflict between the need to find matches in the dependent database versus the need to exclude inappropriate matches. It is argued that the likelihood of such conflicts increase...

  20. Dimensionality reduction in Bayesian estimation algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    G. W. Petty

    2013-01-01

    An idealized synthetic database loosely resembling 3-channel passive microwave observations of precipitation against a variable background is employed to examine the performance of a conventional Bayesian retrieval algorithm. For this dataset, algorithm performance is found to be poor owing to an irreconcilable conflict between the need to find matches in the dependent database versus the need to exclude inappropriate matches. It is argued that the likelihood of such conf...

  1. Constrained bayesian inference of project performance models

    OpenAIRE

    Sunmola, Funlade

    2013-01-01

    Project performance models play an important role in the management of project success. When used for monitoring projects, they can offer predictive ability such as indications of possible delivery problems. Approaches for monitoring project performance relies on available project information including restrictions imposed on the project, particularly the constraints of cost, quality, scope and time. We study in this paper a Bayesian inference methodology for project performance modelling in ...

  2. Approximation of Bayesian Inverse Problems for PDEs

    OpenAIRE

    Cotter, S. L.; Dashti, M.; Stuart, A. M.

    2010-01-01

    Inverse problems are often ill posed, with solutions that depend sensitively on data.n any numerical approach to the solution of such problems, regularization of some form is needed to counteract the resulting instability. This paper is based on an approach to regularization, employing a Bayesian formulation of the problem, which leads to a notion of well posedness for inverse problems, at the level of probability measures. The stability which results from this well posedness may be used as t...

  3. Bayesian analysis of Markov point processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berthelsen, Kasper Klitgaard; Møller, Jesper

    2006-01-01

    Recently Møller, Pettitt, Berthelsen and Reeves introduced a new MCMC methodology for drawing samples from a posterior distribution when the likelihood function is only specified up to a normalising constant. We illustrate the method in the setting of Bayesian inference for Markov point processes...... a partially ordered Markov point process as the auxiliary variable. As the method requires simulation from the "unknown" likelihood, perfect simulation algorithms for spatial point processes become useful....

  4. Bayesian Inference Methods for Sparse Channel Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand

    2013-01-01

    of Bayesian inference algorithms for sparse channel estimation. Sparse inference methods aim at finding the sparse representation of a signal given in some overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors. Within this context, one of our main contributions to the field of SBL is a hierarchical representation...... and computational complexity. We also analyze the impact of transceiver filters on the sparseness of the channel response, and propose a dictionary design that permits the deployment of sparse inference methods in conditions of low bandwidth....

  5. Exploiting Cross-sensitivity by Bayesian Decoding of Mixed Potential Sensor Arrays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kreller, Cortney [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-10-02

    LANL mixed-potential electrochemical sensor (MPES) device arrays were coupled with advanced Bayesian inference treatment of the physical model of relevant sensor-analyte interactions. We demonstrated that our approach could be used to uniquely discriminate the composition of ternary gas sensors with three discreet MPES sensors with an average error of less than 2%. We also observed that the MPES exhibited excellent stability over a year of operation at elevated temperatures in the presence of test gases.

  6. Non-parametric Bayesian models of response function in dynamic image sequences

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tichý, Ondřej; Šmídl, Václav

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 151, č. 1 (2016), s. 90-100 ISSN 1077-3142 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-29225S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Response function * Blind source separation * Dynamic medical imaging * Probabilistic models * Bayesian methods Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 2.498, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/tichy-0456983.pdf

  7. Network structure exploration via Bayesian nonparametric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Y; Wang, X L; Xiang, X; Tang, B Z; Bu, J Z

    2015-01-01

    Complex networks provide a powerful mathematical representation of complex systems in nature and society. To understand complex networks, it is crucial to explore their internal structures, also called structural regularities. The task of network structure exploration is to determine how many groups there are in a complex network and how to group the nodes of the network. Most existing structure exploration methods need to specify either a group number or a certain type of structure when they are applied to a network. In the real world, however, the group number and also the certain type of structure that a network has are usually unknown in advance. To explore structural regularities in complex networks automatically, without any prior knowledge of the group number or the certain type of structure, we extend a probabilistic mixture model that can handle networks with any type of structure but needs to specify a group number using Bayesian nonparametric theory. We also propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric model, called the Bayesian nonparametric mixture (BNPM) model. Experiments conducted on a large number of networks with different structures show that the BNPM model is able to explore structural regularities in networks automatically with a stable, state-of-the-art performance. (paper)

  8. Bayesian Methods for Radiation Detection and Dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peter G. Groer

    2002-01-01

    We performed work in three areas: radiation detection, external and internal radiation dosimetry. In radiation detection we developed Bayesian techniques to estimate the net activity of high and low activity radioactive samples. These techniques have the advantage that the remaining uncertainty about the net activity is described by probability densities. Graphs of the densities show the uncertainty in pictorial form. Figure 1 below demonstrates this point. We applied stochastic processes for a method to obtain Bayesian estimates of 222Rn-daughter products from observed counting rates. In external radiation dosimetry we studied and developed Bayesian methods to estimate radiation doses to an individual with radiation induced chromosome aberrations. We analyzed chromosome aberrations after exposure to gammas and neutrons and developed a method for dose-estimation after criticality accidents. The research in internal radiation dosimetry focused on parameter estimation for compartmental models from observed compartmental activities. From the estimated probability densities of the model parameters we were able to derive the densities for compartmental activities for a two compartment catenary model at different times. We also calculated the average activities and their standard deviation for a simple two compartment model

  9. Bayesian Inference of a Multivariate Regression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marick S. Sinay

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We explore Bayesian inference of a multivariate linear regression model with use of a flexible prior for the covariance structure. The commonly adopted Bayesian setup involves the conjugate prior, multivariate normal distribution for the regression coefficients and inverse Wishart specification for the covariance matrix. Here we depart from this approach and propose a novel Bayesian estimator for the covariance. A multivariate normal prior for the unique elements of the matrix logarithm of the covariance matrix is considered. Such structure allows for a richer class of prior distributions for the covariance, with respect to strength of beliefs in prior location hyperparameters, as well as the added ability, to model potential correlation amongst the covariance structure. The posterior moments of all relevant parameters of interest are calculated based upon numerical results via a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. The Metropolis-Hastings-within-Gibbs algorithm is invoked to account for the construction of a proposal density that closely matches the shape of the target posterior distribution. As an application of the proposed technique, we investigate a multiple regression based upon the 1980 High School and Beyond Survey.

  10. Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Cripps

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine if the patterns of within-person responses on a 12 trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999. ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability, which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiralling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of within-person processes at the individual level, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques.

  11. Bayesian methodology for reliability model acceptance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Ruoxue; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2003-01-01

    This paper develops a methodology to assess the reliability computation model validity using the concept of Bayesian hypothesis testing, by comparing the model prediction and experimental observation, when there is only one computational model available to evaluate system behavior. Time-independent and time-dependent problems are investigated, with consideration of both cases: with and without statistical uncertainty in the model. The case of time-independent failure probability prediction with no statistical uncertainty is a straightforward application of Bayesian hypothesis testing. However, for the life prediction (time-dependent reliability) problem, a new methodology is developed in this paper to make the same Bayesian hypothesis testing concept applicable. With the existence of statistical uncertainty in the model, in addition to the application of a predictor estimator of the Bayes factor, the uncertainty in the Bayes factor is explicitly quantified through treating it as a random variable and calculating the probability that it exceeds a specified value. The developed method provides a rational criterion to decision-makers for the acceptance or rejection of the computational model

  12. Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network for Language Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chien, Jen-Tzung; Ku, Yuan-Chu

    2016-02-01

    A language model (LM) is calculated as the probability of a word sequence that provides the solution to word prediction for a variety of information systems. A recurrent neural network (RNN) is powerful to learn the large-span dynamics of a word sequence in the continuous space. However, the training of the RNN-LM is an ill-posed problem because of too many parameters from a large dictionary size and a high-dimensional hidden layer. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to regularize the RNN-LM and apply it for continuous speech recognition. We aim to penalize the too complicated RNN-LM by compensating for the uncertainty of the estimated model parameters, which is represented by a Gaussian prior. The objective function in a Bayesian classification network is formed as the regularized cross-entropy error function. The regularized model is constructed not only by calculating the regularized parameters according to the maximum a posteriori criterion but also by estimating the Gaussian hyperparameter by maximizing the marginal likelihood. A rapid approximation to a Hessian matrix is developed to implement the Bayesian RNN-LM (BRNN-LM) by selecting a small set of salient outer-products. The proposed BRNN-LM achieves a sparser model than the RNN-LM. Experiments on different corpora show the robustness of system performance by applying the rapid BRNN-LM under different conditions.

  13. Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach

    CERN Document Server

    Adam, Jaroslav; Aggarwal, Madan Mohan; Aglieri Rinella, Gianluca; Agnello, Michelangelo; Agrawal, Neelima; Ahammed, Zubayer; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahn, Sang Un; Aiola, Salvatore; Akindinov, Alexander; Alam, Sk Noor; Silva De Albuquerque, Danilo; Aleksandrov, Dmitry; Alessandro, Bruno; Alexandre, Didier; Alfaro Molina, Jose Ruben; Alici, Andrea; Alkin, Anton; Millan Almaraz, Jesus Roberto; Alme, Johan; Alt, Torsten; Altinpinar, Sedat; Altsybeev, Igor; Alves Garcia Prado, Caio; Andrei, Cristian; Andronic, Anton; Anguelov, Venelin; Anticic, Tome; Antinori, Federico; Antonioli, Pietro; Aphecetche, Laurent Bernard; Appelshaeuser, Harald; Arcelli, Silvia; Arnaldi, Roberta; Arnold, Oliver Werner; Arsene, Ionut Cristian; Arslandok, Mesut; Audurier, Benjamin; Augustinus, Andre; Averbeck, Ralf Peter; Azmi, Mohd Danish; Badala, Angela; Baek, Yong Wook; Bagnasco, Stefano; Bailhache, Raphaelle Marie; Bala, Renu; Balasubramanian, Supraja; Baldisseri, Alberto; Baral, Rama Chandra; Barbano, Anastasia Maria; Barbera, Roberto; Barile, Francesco; Barnafoldi, Gergely Gabor; Barnby, Lee Stuart; Ramillien Barret, Valerie; Bartalini, Paolo; Barth, Klaus; Bartke, Jerzy Gustaw; Bartsch, Esther; Basile, Maurizio; Bastid, Nicole; Basu, Sumit; Bathen, Bastian; Batigne, Guillaume; Batista Camejo, Arianna; Batyunya, Boris; Batzing, Paul Christoph; Bearden, Ian Gardner; Beck, Hans; Bedda, Cristina; Behera, Nirbhay Kumar; Belikov, Iouri; Bellini, Francesca; Bello Martinez, Hector; Bellwied, Rene; Belmont Iii, Ronald John; Belmont Moreno, Ernesto; Belyaev, Vladimir; Benacek, Pavel; Bencedi, Gyula; Beole, Stefania; Berceanu, Ionela; Bercuci, Alexandru; Berdnikov, Yaroslav; Berenyi, Daniel; Bertens, Redmer Alexander; Berzano, Dario; Betev, Latchezar; Bhasin, Anju; Bhat, Inayat Rasool; Bhati, Ashok Kumar; Bhattacharjee, Buddhadeb; Bhom, Jihyun; Bianchi, Livio; Bianchi, Nicola; Bianchin, Chiara; Bielcik, Jaroslav; Bielcikova, Jana; Bilandzic, Ante; Biro, Gabor; Biswas, Rathijit; Biswas, Saikat; Bjelogrlic, Sandro; Blair, Justin Thomas; Blau, Dmitry; Blume, Christoph; Bock, Friederike; Bogdanov, Alexey; Boggild, Hans; Boldizsar, Laszlo; Bombara, Marek; Book, Julian Heinz; Borel, Herve; Borissov, Alexander; Borri, Marcello; Bossu, Francesco; Botta, Elena; Bourjau, Christian; Braun-Munzinger, Peter; Bregant, Marco; Breitner, Timo Gunther; Broker, Theo Alexander; Browning, Tyler Allen; Broz, Michal; Brucken, Erik Jens; Bruna, Elena; Bruno, Giuseppe Eugenio; Budnikov, Dmitry; Buesching, Henner; Bufalino, Stefania; Buncic, Predrag; Busch, Oliver; Buthelezi, Edith Zinhle; Bashir Butt, Jamila; Buxton, Jesse Thomas; Cabala, Jan; Caffarri, Davide; Cai, Xu; Caines, Helen Louise; Calero Diaz, Liliet; Caliva, Alberto; Calvo Villar, Ernesto; Camerini, Paolo; Carena, Francesco; Carena, Wisla; Carnesecchi, Francesca; Castillo Castellanos, Javier Ernesto; Castro, Andrew John; Casula, Ester Anna Rita; Ceballos Sanchez, Cesar; Cepila, Jan; Cerello, Piergiorgio; Cerkala, Jakub; Chang, Beomsu; Chapeland, Sylvain; Chartier, Marielle; Charvet, Jean-Luc Fernand; Chattopadhyay, Subhasis; Chattopadhyay, Sukalyan; Chauvin, Alex; Chelnokov, Volodymyr; Cherney, Michael Gerard; Cheshkov, Cvetan Valeriev; Cheynis, Brigitte; Chibante Barroso, Vasco Miguel; Dobrigkeit Chinellato, David; Cho, Soyeon; Chochula, Peter; Choi, Kyungeon; Chojnacki, Marek; Choudhury, Subikash; Christakoglou, Panagiotis; Christensen, Christian Holm; Christiansen, Peter; Chujo, Tatsuya; Chung, Suh-Urk; Cicalo, Corrado; Cifarelli, Luisa; Cindolo, Federico; Cleymans, Jean Willy Andre; Colamaria, Fabio Filippo; Colella, Domenico; Collu, Alberto; Colocci, Manuel; Conesa Balbastre, Gustavo; Conesa Del Valle, Zaida; Connors, Megan Elizabeth; Contreras Nuno, Jesus Guillermo; Cormier, Thomas Michael; Corrales Morales, Yasser; Cortes Maldonado, Ismael; Cortese, Pietro; Cosentino, Mauro Rogerio; Costa, Filippo; Crochet, Philippe; Cruz Albino, Rigoberto; Cuautle Flores, Eleazar; Cunqueiro Mendez, Leticia; Dahms, Torsten; Dainese, Andrea; Danisch, Meike Charlotte; Danu, Andrea; Das, Debasish; Das, Indranil; Das, Supriya; Dash, Ajay Kumar; Dash, Sadhana; De, Sudipan; De Caro, Annalisa; De Cataldo, Giacinto; De Conti, Camila; De Cuveland, Jan; De Falco, Alessandro; De Gruttola, Daniele; De Marco, Nora; De Pasquale, Salvatore; Deisting, Alexander; Deloff, Andrzej; Denes, Ervin Sandor; Deplano, Caterina; Dhankher, Preeti; Di Bari, Domenico; Di Mauro, Antonio; Di Nezza, Pasquale; Diaz Corchero, Miguel Angel; Dietel, Thomas; Dillenseger, Pascal; Divia, Roberto; Djuvsland, Oeystein; Dobrin, Alexandru Florin; Domenicis Gimenez, Diogenes; Donigus, Benjamin; Dordic, Olja; Drozhzhova, Tatiana; Dubey, Anand Kumar; Dubla, Andrea; Ducroux, Laurent; Dupieux, Pascal; Ehlers Iii, Raymond James; Elia, Domenico; Endress, Eric; Engel, Heiko; Epple, Eliane; Erazmus, Barbara Ewa; Erdemir, Irem; Erhardt, Filip; Espagnon, Bruno; Estienne, Magali Danielle; Esumi, Shinichi; Eum, Jongsik; Evans, David; Evdokimov, Sergey; Eyyubova, Gyulnara; Fabbietti, Laura; Fabris, Daniela; Faivre, Julien; Fantoni, Alessandra; Fasel, Markus; Feldkamp, Linus; Feliciello, Alessandro; Feofilov, Grigorii; Ferencei, Jozef; Fernandez Tellez, Arturo; Gonzalez Ferreiro, Elena; Ferretti, Alessandro; Festanti, Andrea; Feuillard, Victor Jose Gaston; Figiel, Jan; Araujo Silva Figueredo, Marcel; Filchagin, Sergey; Finogeev, Dmitry; Fionda, Fiorella; Fiore, Enrichetta Maria; Fleck, Martin Gabriel; Floris, Michele; Foertsch, Siegfried Valentin; Foka, Panagiota; Fokin, Sergey; Fragiacomo, Enrico; Francescon, Andrea; Frankenfeld, Ulrich Michael; Fronze, Gabriele Gaetano; Fuchs, Ulrich; Furget, Christophe; Furs, Artur; Fusco Girard, Mario; Gaardhoeje, Jens Joergen; Gagliardi, Martino; Gago Medina, Alberto Martin; Gallio, Mauro; Gangadharan, Dhevan Raja; Ganoti, Paraskevi; Gao, Chaosong; Garabatos Cuadrado, Jose; Garcia-Solis, Edmundo Javier; Gargiulo, Corrado; Gasik, Piotr Jan; Gauger, Erin Frances; Germain, Marie; Gheata, Andrei George; Gheata, Mihaela; Ghosh, Premomoy; Ghosh, Sanjay Kumar; Gianotti, Paola; Giubellino, Paolo; Giubilato, Piero; Gladysz-Dziadus, Ewa; Glassel, Peter; Gomez Coral, Diego Mauricio; Gomez Ramirez, Andres; Sanchez Gonzalez, Andres; Gonzalez, Victor; Gonzalez Zamora, Pedro; Gorbunov, Sergey; Gorlich, Lidia Maria; Gotovac, Sven; Grabski, Varlen; Grachov, Oleg Anatolievich; Graczykowski, Lukasz Kamil; Graham, Katie Leanne; Grelli, Alessandro; Grigoras, Alina Gabriela; Grigoras, Costin; Grigoryev, Vladislav; Grigoryan, Ara; Grigoryan, Smbat; Grynyov, Borys; Grion, Nevio; Gronefeld, Julius Maximilian; Grosse-Oetringhaus, Jan Fiete; Grosso, Raffaele; Guber, Fedor; Guernane, Rachid; Guerzoni, Barbara; Gulbrandsen, Kristjan Herlache; Gunji, Taku; Gupta, Anik; Gupta, Ramni; Haake, Rudiger; Haaland, Oystein Senneset; Hadjidakis, Cynthia Marie; Haiduc, Maria; Hamagaki, Hideki; Hamar, Gergoe; Hamon, Julien Charles; Harris, John William; Harton, Austin Vincent; Hatzifotiadou, Despina; Hayashi, Shinichi; Heckel, Stefan Thomas; Hellbar, Ernst; Helstrup, Haavard; Herghelegiu, Andrei Ionut; Herrera Corral, Gerardo Antonio; Hess, Benjamin Andreas; Hetland, Kristin Fanebust; Hillemanns, Hartmut; Hippolyte, Boris; Horak, David; Hosokawa, Ritsuya; Hristov, Peter Zahariev; Humanic, Thomas; Hussain, Nur; Hussain, Tahir; Hutter, Dirk; Hwang, Dae Sung; Ilkaev, Radiy; Inaba, Motoi; Incani, Elisa; Ippolitov, Mikhail; Irfan, Muhammad; Ivanov, Marian; Ivanov, Vladimir; Izucheev, Vladimir; Jacazio, Nicolo; Jacobs, Peter Martin; Jadhav, Manoj Bhanudas; Jadlovska, Slavka; Jadlovsky, Jan; Jahnke, Cristiane; Jakubowska, Monika Joanna; Jang, Haeng Jin; Janik, Malgorzata Anna; Pahula Hewage, Sandun; Jena, Chitrasen; Jena, Satyajit; Jimenez Bustamante, Raul Tonatiuh; Jones, Peter Graham; Jusko, Anton; Kalinak, Peter; Kalweit, Alexander Philipp; Kamin, Jason Adrian; Kang, Ju Hwan; Kaplin, Vladimir; Kar, Somnath; Karasu Uysal, Ayben; Karavichev, Oleg; Karavicheva, Tatiana; Karayan, Lilit; Karpechev, Evgeny; Kebschull, Udo Wolfgang; Keidel, Ralf; Keijdener, Darius Laurens; Keil, Markus; Khan, Mohammed Mohisin; Khan, Palash; Khan, Shuaib Ahmad; Khanzadeev, Alexei; Kharlov, Yury; Kileng, Bjarte; Kim, Do Won; Kim, Dong Jo; Kim, Daehyeok; Kim, Hyeonjoong; Kim, Jinsook; Kim, Minwoo; Kim, Se Yong; Kim, Taesoo; Kirsch, Stefan; Kisel, Ivan; Kiselev, Sergey; Kisiel, Adam Ryszard; Kiss, Gabor; Klay, Jennifer Lynn; Klein, Carsten; Klein, Jochen; Klein-Boesing, Christian; Klewin, Sebastian; Kluge, Alexander; Knichel, Michael Linus; Knospe, Anders Garritt; Kobdaj, Chinorat; Kofarago, Monika; Kollegger, Thorsten; Kolozhvari, Anatoly; Kondratev, Valerii; Kondratyeva, Natalia; Kondratyuk, Evgeny; Konevskikh, Artem; Kopcik, Michal; Kostarakis, Panagiotis; Kour, Mandeep; Kouzinopoulos, Charalampos; Kovalenko, Oleksandr; Kovalenko, Vladimir; Kowalski, Marek; Koyithatta Meethaleveedu, Greeshma; Kralik, Ivan; Kravcakova, Adela; Krivda, Marian; Krizek, Filip; Kryshen, Evgeny; Krzewicki, Mikolaj; Kubera, Andrew Michael; Kucera, Vit; Kuhn, Christian Claude; Kuijer, Paulus Gerardus; Kumar, Ajay; Kumar, Jitendra; Kumar, Lokesh; Kumar, Shyam; Kurashvili, Podist; Kurepin, Alexander; Kurepin, Alexey; Kuryakin, Alexey; Kweon, Min Jung; Kwon, Youngil; La Pointe, Sarah Louise; La Rocca, Paola; Ladron De Guevara, Pedro; Lagana Fernandes, Caio; Lakomov, Igor; Langoy, Rune; Lara Martinez, Camilo Ernesto; Lardeux, Antoine Xavier; Lattuca, Alessandra; Laudi, Elisa; Lea, Ramona; Leardini, Lucia; Lee, Graham Richard; Lee, Seongjoo; Lehas, Fatiha; Lemmon, Roy Crawford; Lenti, Vito; Leogrande, Emilia; Leon Monzon, Ildefonso; Leon Vargas, Hermes; Leoncino, Marco; Levai, Peter; Li, Shuang; Li, Xiaomei; Lien, Jorgen Andre; Lietava, Roman; Lindal, Svein; Lindenstruth, Volker; Lippmann, Christian; Lisa, Michael Annan; Ljunggren, Hans Martin; Lodato, Davide Francesco; Lonne, Per-Ivar; Loginov, Vitaly; Loizides, Constantinos; Lopez, Xavier Bernard; Lopez Torres, Ernesto; Lowe, Andrew John; Luettig, Philipp Johannes; Lunardon, Marcello; Luparello, Grazia; Lutz, Tyler Harrison; Maevskaya, Alla; Mager, Magnus; Mahajan, Sanjay; Mahmood, Sohail Musa; Maire, Antonin; Majka, Richard Daniel; Malaev, Mikhail; Maldonado Cervantes, Ivonne Alicia; Malinina, Liudmila; Mal'Kevich, Dmitry; Malzacher, Peter; Mamonov, Alexander; Manko, Vladislav; Manso, Franck; Manzari, Vito; Marchisone, Massimiliano; Mares, Jiri; Margagliotti, Giacomo Vito; Margotti, Anselmo; Margutti, Jacopo; Marin, Ana Maria; Markert, Christina; Marquard, Marco; Martin, Nicole Alice; Martin Blanco, Javier; Martinengo, Paolo; Martinez Hernandez, Mario Ivan; Martinez-Garcia, Gines; Martinez Pedreira, Miguel; Mas, Alexis Jean-Michel; Masciocchi, Silvia; Masera, Massimo; Masoni, Alberto; Mastroserio, Annalisa; Matyja, Adam Tomasz; Mayer, Christoph; Mazer, Joel Anthony; Mazzoni, Alessandra Maria; Mcdonald, Daniel; Meddi, Franco; Melikyan, Yuri; Menchaca-Rocha, Arturo Alejandro; Meninno, Elisa; Mercado-Perez, Jorge; Meres, Michal; Miake, Yasuo; Mieskolainen, Matti Mikael; Mikhaylov, Konstantin; Milano, Leonardo; Milosevic, Jovan; Mischke, Andre; Mishra, Aditya Nath; Miskowiec, Dariusz Czeslaw; Mitra, Jubin; Mitu, Ciprian Mihai; Mohammadi, Naghmeh; Mohanty, Bedangadas; Molnar, Levente; Montano Zetina, Luis Manuel; Montes Prado, Esther; Moreira De Godoy, Denise Aparecida; Perez Moreno, Luis Alberto; Moretto, Sandra; Morreale, Astrid; Morsch, Andreas; Muccifora, Valeria; Mudnic, Eugen; Muhlheim, Daniel Michael; Muhuri, Sanjib; Mukherjee, Maitreyee; Mulligan, James Declan; Gameiro Munhoz, Marcelo; Munzer, Robert Helmut; Murakami, Hikari; Murray, Sean; Musa, Luciano; Musinsky, Jan; Naik, Bharati; Nair, Rahul; Nandi, Basanta Kumar; Nania, Rosario; Nappi, Eugenio; Naru, Muhammad Umair; Ferreira Natal Da Luz, Pedro Hugo; Nattrass, Christine; Rosado Navarro, Sebastian; Nayak, Kishora; Nayak, Ranjit; Nayak, Tapan Kumar; Nazarenko, Sergey; Nedosekin, Alexander; Nellen, Lukas; Ng, Fabian; Nicassio, Maria; Niculescu, Mihai; Niedziela, Jeremi; Nielsen, Borge Svane; Nikolaev, Sergey; Nikulin, Sergey; Nikulin, Vladimir; Noferini, Francesco; Nomokonov, Petr; Nooren, Gerardus; Cabanillas Noris, Juan Carlos; Norman, Jaime; Nyanin, Alexander; Nystrand, Joakim Ingemar; Oeschler, Helmut Oskar; Oh, Saehanseul; Oh, Sun Kun; Ohlson, Alice Elisabeth; Okatan, Ali; Okubo, Tsubasa; Olah, Laszlo; Oleniacz, Janusz; Oliveira Da Silva, Antonio Carlos; Oliver, Michael Henry; Onderwaater, Jacobus; Oppedisano, Chiara; Orava, Risto; Oravec, Matej; Ortiz Velasquez, Antonio; Oskarsson, Anders Nils Erik; Otwinowski, Jacek Tomasz; Oyama, Ken; Ozdemir, Mahmut; Pachmayer, Yvonne Chiara; Pagano, Davide; Pagano, Paola; Paic, Guy; Pal, Susanta Kumar; Pan, Jinjin; Pandey, Ashutosh Kumar; Papikyan, Vardanush; Pappalardo, Giuseppe; Pareek, Pooja; Park, Woojin; Parmar, Sonia; Passfeld, Annika; Paticchio, Vincenzo; Patra, Rajendra Nath; Paul, Biswarup; Pei, Hua; Peitzmann, Thomas; Pereira Da Costa, Hugo Denis Antonio; Peresunko, Dmitry Yurevich; Perez Lara, Carlos Eugenio; Perez Lezama, Edgar; Peskov, Vladimir; Pestov, Yury; Petracek, Vojtech; Petrov, Viacheslav; Petrovici, Mihai; Petta, Catia; Piano, Stefano; Pikna, Miroslav; Pillot, Philippe; Ozelin De Lima Pimentel, Lais; Pinazza, Ombretta; Pinsky, Lawrence; Piyarathna, Danthasinghe; Ploskon, Mateusz Andrzej; Planinic, Mirko; Pluta, Jan Marian; Pochybova, Sona; Podesta Lerma, Pedro Luis Manuel; Poghosyan, Martin; Polishchuk, Boris; Poljak, Nikola; Poonsawat, Wanchaloem; Pop, Amalia; Porteboeuf, Sarah Julie; Porter, R Jefferson; Pospisil, Jan; Prasad, Sidharth Kumar; Preghenella, Roberto; Prino, Francesco; Pruneau, Claude Andre; Pshenichnov, Igor; Puccio, Maximiliano; Puddu, Giovanna; Pujahari, Prabhat Ranjan; Punin, Valery; Putschke, Jorn Henning; Qvigstad, Henrik; Rachevski, Alexandre; Raha, Sibaji; Rajput, Sonia; Rak, Jan; Rakotozafindrabe, Andry Malala; Ramello, Luciano; Rami, Fouad; Raniwala, Rashmi; Raniwala, Sudhir; Rasanen, Sami Sakari; Rascanu, Bogdan Theodor; Rathee, Deepika; Read, Kenneth Francis; Redlich, Krzysztof; Reed, Rosi Jan; Rehman, Attiq Ur; Reichelt, Patrick Simon; Reidt, Felix; Ren, Xiaowen; Renfordt, Rainer Arno Ernst; Reolon, Anna Rita; Reshetin, Andrey; Reygers, Klaus Johannes; Riabov, Viktor; Ricci, Renato Angelo; Richert, Tuva Ora Herenui; Richter, Matthias Rudolph; Riedler, Petra; Riegler, Werner; Riggi, Francesco; Ristea, Catalin-Lucian; Rocco, Elena; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, Mario; Rodriguez Manso, Alis; Roeed, Ketil; Rogochaya, Elena; Rohr, David Michael; Roehrich, Dieter; Ronchetti, Federico; Ronflette, Lucile; Rosnet, Philippe; Rossi, Andrea; Roukoutakis, Filimon; Roy, Ankhi; Roy, Christelle Sophie; Roy, Pradip Kumar; Rubio Montero, Antonio Juan; Rui, Rinaldo; Russo, Riccardo; Ryabinkin, Evgeny; Ryabov, Yury; Rybicki, Andrzej; Saarinen, Sampo; Sadhu, Samrangy; Sadovskiy, Sergey; Safarik, Karel; Sahlmuller, Baldo; Sahoo, Pragati; Sahoo, Raghunath; Sahoo, Sarita; Sahu, Pradip Kumar; Saini, Jogender; Sakai, Shingo; Saleh, Mohammad Ahmad; Salzwedel, Jai Samuel Nielsen; Sambyal, Sanjeev Singh; Samsonov, Vladimir; Sandor, Ladislav; Sandoval, Andres; Sano, Masato; Sarkar, Debojit; Sarkar, Nachiketa; Sarma, Pranjal; Scapparone, Eugenio; Scarlassara, Fernando; Schiaua, Claudiu Cornel; Schicker, Rainer Martin; Schmidt, Christian Joachim; Schmidt, Hans Rudolf; Schuchmann, Simone; Schukraft, Jurgen; Schulc, Martin; Schutz, Yves Roland; Schwarz, Kilian Eberhard; Schweda, Kai Oliver; Scioli, Gilda; Scomparin, Enrico; Scott, Rebecca Michelle; Sefcik, Michal; Seger, Janet Elizabeth; Sekiguchi, Yuko; Sekihata, Daiki; Selyuzhenkov, Ilya; Senosi, Kgotlaesele; Senyukov, Serhiy; Serradilla Rodriguez, Eulogio; Sevcenco, Adrian; Shabanov, Arseniy; Shabetai, Alexandre; Shadura, Oksana; Shahoyan, Ruben; Shahzad, Muhammed Ikram; Shangaraev, Artem; Sharma, Ankita; Sharma, Mona; Sharma, Monika; Sharma, Natasha; Sheikh, Ashik Ikbal; Shigaki, Kenta; Shou, Qiye; Shtejer Diaz, Katherin; Sibiryak, Yury; Siddhanta, Sabyasachi; Sielewicz, Krzysztof Marek; Siemiarczuk, Teodor; Silvermyr, David Olle Rickard; Silvestre, Catherine Micaela; Simatovic, Goran; Simonetti, Giuseppe; Singaraju, Rama Narayana; Singh, Ranbir; Singha, Subhash; Singhal, Vikas; Sinha, Bikash; Sarkar - Sinha, Tinku; Sitar, Branislav; Sitta, Mario; Skaali, Bernhard; Slupecki, Maciej; Smirnov, Nikolai; Snellings, Raimond; Snellman, Tomas Wilhelm; Song, Jihye; Song, Myunggeun; Song, Zixuan; Soramel, Francesca; Sorensen, Soren Pontoppidan; Derradi De Souza, Rafael; Sozzi, Federica; Spacek, Michal; Spiriti, Eleuterio; Sputowska, Iwona Anna; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, Martha; Stachel, Johanna; Stan, Ionel; Stankus, Paul; Stenlund, Evert Anders; Steyn, Gideon Francois; Stiller, Johannes Hendrik; Stocco, Diego; Strmen, Peter; Alarcon Do Passo Suaide, Alexandre; Sugitate, Toru; Suire, Christophe Pierre; Suleymanov, Mais Kazim Oglu; Suljic, Miljenko; Sultanov, Rishat; Sumbera, Michal; Sumowidagdo, Suharyo; Szabo, Alexander; Szanto De Toledo, Alejandro; Szarka, Imrich; Szczepankiewicz, Adam; Szymanski, Maciej Pawel; Tabassam, Uzma; Takahashi, Jun; Tambave, Ganesh Jagannath; Tanaka, Naoto; Tarhini, Mohamad; Tariq, Mohammad; Tarzila, Madalina-Gabriela; Tauro, Arturo; Tejeda Munoz, Guillermo; Telesca, Adriana; Terasaki, Kohei; Terrevoli, Cristina; Teyssier, Boris; Thaeder, Jochen Mathias; Thakur, Dhananjaya; Thomas, Deepa; Tieulent, Raphael Noel; Timmins, Anthony Robert; Toia, Alberica; Trogolo, Stefano; Trombetta, Giuseppe; Trubnikov, Victor; Trzaska, Wladyslaw Henryk; Tsuji, Tomoya; Tumkin, Alexandr; Turrisi, Rosario; Tveter, Trine Spedstad; Ullaland, Kjetil; Uras, Antonio; Usai, Gianluca; Utrobicic, Antonija; Vala, Martin; Valencia Palomo, Lizardo; Vallero, Sara; Van Der Maarel, Jasper; Van Hoorne, Jacobus Willem; Van Leeuwen, Marco; Vanat, Tomas; Vande Vyvre, Pierre; Varga, Dezso; Diozcora Vargas Trevino, Aurora; Vargyas, Marton; Varma, Raghava; Vasileiou, Maria; Vasiliev, Andrey; Vauthier, Astrid; Vechernin, Vladimir; Veen, Annelies Marianne; Veldhoen, Misha; Velure, Arild; Vercellin, Ermanno; Vergara Limon, Sergio; Vernet, Renaud; Verweij, Marta; Vickovic, Linda; Viesti, Giuseppe; Viinikainen, Jussi Samuli; Vilakazi, Zabulon; Villalobos Baillie, Orlando; Villatoro Tello, Abraham; Vinogradov, Alexander; Vinogradov, Leonid; Vinogradov, Yury; Virgili, Tiziano; Vislavicius, Vytautas; Viyogi, Yogendra; Vodopyanov, Alexander; Volkl, Martin Andreas; Voloshin, Kirill; Voloshin, Sergey; Volpe, Giacomo; Von Haller, Barthelemy; Vorobyev, Ivan; Vranic, Danilo; Vrlakova, Janka; Vulpescu, Bogdan; Wagner, Boris; Wagner, Jan; Wang, Hongkai; Wang, Mengliang; Watanabe, Daisuke; Watanabe, Yosuke; Weber, Michael; Weber, Steffen Georg; Weiser, Dennis Franz; Wessels, Johannes Peter; Westerhoff, Uwe; Whitehead, Andile Mothegi; Wiechula, Jens; Wikne, Jon; Wilk, Grzegorz Andrzej; Wilkinson, Jeremy John; Williams, Crispin; Windelband, Bernd Stefan; Winn, Michael Andreas; Yang, Hongyan; Yang, Ping; Yano, Satoshi; Yasin, Zafar; Yin, Zhongbao; Yokoyama, Hiroki; Yoo, In-Kwon; Yoon, Jin Hee; Yurchenko, Volodymyr; Yushmanov, Igor; Zaborowska, Anna; Zaccolo, Valentina; Zaman, Ali; Zampolli, Chiara; Correia Zanoli, Henrique Jose; Zaporozhets, Sergey; Zardoshti, Nima; Zarochentsev, Andrey; Zavada, Petr; Zavyalov, Nikolay; Zbroszczyk, Hanna Paulina; Zgura, Sorin Ion; Zhalov, Mikhail; Zhang, Haitao; Zhang, Xiaoming; Zhang, Yonghong; Chunhui, Zhang; Zhang, Zuman; Zhao, Chengxin; Zhigareva, Natalia; Zhou, Daicui; Zhou, You; Zhou, Zhuo; Zhu, Hongsheng; Zhu, Jianhui; Zichichi, Antonino; Zimmermann, Alice; Zimmermann, Markus Bernhard; Zinovjev, Gennady; Zyzak, Maksym

    2016-05-25

    We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian PID approach for charged pions, kaons and protons in the central barrel of ALICE is studied. PID is performed via measurements of specific energy loss (dE/dx) and time-of-flight. PID efficiencies and misidentification probabilities are extracted and compared with Monte Carlo simulations using high purity samples of identified particles in the decay channels ${\\rm K}_{\\rm S}^{\\rm 0}\\rightarrow \\pi^+\\pi^-$, $\\phi\\rightarrow {\\rm K}^-{\\rm K}^+$ and $\\Lambda\\rightarrow{\\rm p}\\pi^-$ in p–Pb collisions at $\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}}= 5.02$TeV. In order to thoroughly assess the validity of the Bayesian approach, this methodology was used to obtain corrected $p_{\\rm T}$ spectra of pions, kaons, protons, and D$^0$ mesons in pp coll...

  14. Bayesian posterior distributions without Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R; Chu, Haitao; Greenland, Sander; Hamra, Ghassan; Richardson, David B

    2012-03-01

    Bayesian posterior parameter distributions are often simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are not always necessary and do not help the uninitiated understand Bayesian inference. As a bridge to understanding Bayesian inference, the authors illustrate a transparent rejection sampling method. In example 1, they illustrate rejection sampling using 36 cases and 198 controls from a case-control study (1976-1983) assessing the relation between residential exposure to magnetic fields and the development of childhood cancer. Results from rejection sampling (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% posterior interval (PI): 0.57, 5.00) were similar to MCMC results (OR = 1.69, 95% PI: 0.58, 4.95) and approximations from data-augmentation priors (OR = 1.74, 95% PI: 0.60, 5.06). In example 2, the authors apply rejection sampling to a cohort study of 315 human immunodeficiency virus seroconverters (1984-1998) to assess the relation between viral load after infection and 5-year incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, adjusting for (continuous) age at seroconversion and race. In this more complex example, rejection sampling required a notably longer run time than MCMC sampling but remained feasible and again yielded similar results. The transparency of the proposed approach comes at a price of being less broadly applicable than MCMC.

  15. Bayesian Posterior Distributions Without Markov Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Chu, Haitao; Greenland, Sander; Hamra, Ghassan; Richardson, David B.

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian posterior parameter distributions are often simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are not always necessary and do not help the uninitiated understand Bayesian inference. As a bridge to understanding Bayesian inference, the authors illustrate a transparent rejection sampling method. In example 1, they illustrate rejection sampling using 36 cases and 198 controls from a case-control study (1976–1983) assessing the relation between residential exposure to magnetic fields and the development of childhood cancer. Results from rejection sampling (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% posterior interval (PI): 0.57, 5.00) were similar to MCMC results (OR = 1.69, 95% PI: 0.58, 4.95) and approximations from data-augmentation priors (OR = 1.74, 95% PI: 0.60, 5.06). In example 2, the authors apply rejection sampling to a cohort study of 315 human immunodeficiency virus seroconverters (1984–1998) to assess the relation between viral load after infection and 5-year incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, adjusting for (continuous) age at seroconversion and race. In this more complex example, rejection sampling required a notably longer run time than MCMC sampling but remained feasible and again yielded similar results. The transparency of the proposed approach comes at a price of being less broadly applicable than MCMC. PMID:22306565

  16. A handbook for solar central receiver design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Falcone, P.K.

    1986-12-01

    This Handbook describes central receiver technology for solar thermal power plants. It contains a description and assessment of the major components in a central receiver system configured for utility scale production of electricity using Rankine-cycle steam turbines. It also describes procedures to size and optimize a plant and discussed examples from recent system analyses. Information concerning site selection criteria, cost estimation, construction, and operation and maintenance is also included, which should enable readers to perform design analyses for specific applications.

  17. Neglected chaos in international stock markets: Bayesian analysis of the joint return-volatility dynamical system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsionas, Mike G.; Michaelides, Panayotis G.

    2017-09-01

    We use a novel Bayesian inference procedure for the Lyapunov exponent in the dynamical system of returns and their unobserved volatility. In the dynamical system, computation of largest Lyapunov exponent by traditional methods is impossible as the stochastic nature has to be taken explicitly into account due to unobserved volatility. We apply the new techniques to daily stock return data for a group of six countries, namely USA, UK, Switzerland, Netherlands, Germany and France, from 2003 to 2014, by means of Sequential Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference. The evidence points to the direction that there is indeed noisy chaos both before and after the recent financial crisis. However, when a much simpler model is examined where the interaction between returns and volatility is not taken into consideration jointly, the hypothesis of chaotic dynamics does not receive much support by the data ("neglected chaos").

  18. Assessment of Matrix Multiplication Learning with a Rule-Based Analytical Model--"A Bayesian Network Representation"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhidong

    2016-01-01

    This study explored an alternative assessment procedure to examine learning trajectories of matrix multiplication. It took rule-based analytical and cognitive task analysis methods specifically to break down operation rules for a given matrix multiplication. Based on the analysis results, a hierarchical Bayesian network, an assessment model,…

  19. Solar thermal energy receiver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Karl W. (Inventor); Dustin, Miles O. (Inventor)

    1992-01-01

    A plurality of heat pipes in a shell receive concentrated solar energy and transfer the energy to a heat activated system. To provide for even distribution of the energy despite uneven impingement of solar energy on the heat pipes, absence of solar energy at times, or failure of one or more of the heat pipes, energy storage means are disposed on the heat pipes which extend through a heat pipe thermal coupling means into the heat activated device. To enhance energy transfer to the heat activated device, the heat pipe coupling cavity means may be provided with extensions into the device. For use with a Stirling engine having passages for working gas, heat transfer members may be positioned to contact the gas and the heat pipes. The shell may be divided into sections by transverse walls. To prevent cavity working fluid from collecting in the extensions, a porous body is positioned in the cavity.

  20. Being Bayesian in a quantum world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuchs, C.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: To be a Bayesian about probability theory is to accept that probabilities represent subjective degrees of belief and nothing more. This is in distinction to the idea that probabilities represent long-term frequencies or objective propensities. But, how can a subjective account of probabilities coexist with the existence of quantum mechanics? To accept quantum mechanics is to accept the calculational apparatus of quantum states and the Born rule for determining probabilities in a quantum measurement. If there ever were a place for probabilities to be objective, it ought to be here. This raises the question of whether Bayesianism and quantum mechanics are compatible at all. For the Bayesian, it only suggests that we should rethink what quantum mechanics is about. Is it 'law of nature' or really more 'law of thought'? From transistors to lasers, the evidence is in that we live in a quantum world. One could infer from this that all the elements in the quantum formalism necessarily mirror nature itself: wave functions are so successful as calculational tools precisely because they represent elements of reality. A more Bayesian-like perspective is that if wave functions generate probabilities, then they too must be Bayesian degrees of belief, with all that such a radical idea entails. In particular, quantum probabilities have no firmer hold on reality than the word 'belief' in 'degrees of belief' already indicates. From this perspective, the only sense in which the quantum formalism mirrors nature is through the constraints it places on gambling agents who would like to better navigate through world. One might think that this is thin information, but it is not insubstantial. To the extent that an agent should use quantum mechanics for his uncertainty accounting rather than some other theory tells us something about the world itself - i.e., the world independent of the agent and his particular beliefs at any moment. In this talk, I will try to shore up these