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Sample records for bayesian network based

  1. Bayesian Network Based XP Process Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Abouelela

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available A Bayesian Network based mathematical model has been used for modelling Extreme Programmingsoftware development process. The model is capable of predicting the expected finish time and theexpected defect rate for each XP release. Therefore, it can be used to determine the success/failure of anyXP Project. The model takes into account the effect of three XP practices, namely: Pair Programming,Test Driven Development and Onsite Customer practices. The model’s predictions were validated againsttwo case studies. Results show the precision of our model especially in predicting the project finish time.

  2. Inference of Gene Regulatory Network Based on Local Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fei; Zhang, Shao-Wu; Guo, Wei-Feng; Wei, Ze-Gang; Chen, Luonan

    2016-08-01

    The inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from expression data can mine the direct regulations among genes and gain deep insights into biological processes at a network level. During past decades, numerous computational approaches have been introduced for inferring the GRNs. However, many of them still suffer from various problems, e.g., Bayesian network (BN) methods cannot handle large-scale networks due to their high computational complexity, while information theory-based methods cannot identify the directions of regulatory interactions and also suffer from false positive/negative problems. To overcome the limitations, in this work we present a novel algorithm, namely local Bayesian network (LBN), to infer GRNs from gene expression data by using the network decomposition strategy and false-positive edge elimination scheme. Specifically, LBN algorithm first uses conditional mutual information (CMI) to construct an initial network or GRN, which is decomposed into a number of local networks or GRNs. Then, BN method is employed to generate a series of local BNs by selecting the k-nearest neighbors of each gene as its candidate regulatory genes, which significantly reduces the exponential search space from all possible GRN structures. Integrating these local BNs forms a tentative network or GRN by performing CMI, which reduces redundant regulations in the GRN and thus alleviates the false positive problem. The final network or GRN can be obtained by iteratively performing CMI and local BN on the tentative network. In the iterative process, the false or redundant regulations are gradually removed. When tested on the benchmark GRN datasets from DREAM challenge as well as the SOS DNA repair network in E.coli, our results suggest that LBN outperforms other state-of-the-art methods (ARACNE, GENIE3 and NARROMI) significantly, with more accurate and robust performance. In particular, the decomposition strategy with local Bayesian networks not only effectively reduce

  3. Inference of Gene Regulatory Network Based on Local Bayesian Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Liu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs from expression data can mine the direct regulations among genes and gain deep insights into biological processes at a network level. During past decades, numerous computational approaches have been introduced for inferring the GRNs. However, many of them still suffer from various problems, e.g., Bayesian network (BN methods cannot handle large-scale networks due to their high computational complexity, while information theory-based methods cannot identify the directions of regulatory interactions and also suffer from false positive/negative problems. To overcome the limitations, in this work we present a novel algorithm, namely local Bayesian network (LBN, to infer GRNs from gene expression data by using the network decomposition strategy and false-positive edge elimination scheme. Specifically, LBN algorithm first uses conditional mutual information (CMI to construct an initial network or GRN, which is decomposed into a number of local networks or GRNs. Then, BN method is employed to generate a series of local BNs by selecting the k-nearest neighbors of each gene as its candidate regulatory genes, which significantly reduces the exponential search space from all possible GRN structures. Integrating these local BNs forms a tentative network or GRN by performing CMI, which reduces redundant regulations in the GRN and thus alleviates the false positive problem. The final network or GRN can be obtained by iteratively performing CMI and local BN on the tentative network. In the iterative process, the false or redundant regulations are gradually removed. When tested on the benchmark GRN datasets from DREAM challenge as well as the SOS DNA repair network in E.coli, our results suggest that LBN outperforms other state-of-the-art methods (ARACNE, GENIE3 and NARROMI significantly, with more accurate and robust performance. In particular, the decomposition strategy with local Bayesian networks not only

  4. ENERGY AWARE NETWORK: BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS BASED DECISION MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santosh Kumar Chaudhari

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A Network Management System (NMS plays a very important role in managing an ever-evolving telecommunication network. Generally an NMS monitors & maintains the health of network elements. The growing size of the network warrants extra functionalities from the NMS. An NMS provides all kinds of information about networks which can be used for other purposes apart from monitoring & maintaining networks like improving QoS & saving energy in the network. In this paper, we add another dimension to NMS services, namely, making an NMS energy aware. We propose a Decision Management System (DMS framework which uses a machine learning technique called Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN, to make the NMS energy aware. The DMS is capable of analysing and making control decisions based on network traffic. We factor in the cost of rerouting and power saving per port. Simulations are performed on standard network topologies, namely, ARPANet and IndiaNet. It is found that ~2.5-6.5% power can be saved.

  5. Risk Based Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines Using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents how Bayesian networks can be used to make optimal decisions for repairs of offshore wind turbines. The Bayesian network is an efficient tool for updating a deterioration model whenever new information becomes available from inspections/monitoring. The optimal decision is found...... such that the preventive maintenance effort is balanced against the costs to corrective maintenance including indirect costs to reduced production. The basis for the optimization is the risk based Bayesian decision theory. The method is demonstrated through an application example....

  6. Uncertainty Modeling Based on Bayesian Network in Ontology Mapping

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Yuhua; LIU Tao; SUN Xiaolin

    2006-01-01

    How to deal with uncertainty is crucial in exact concept mapping between ontologies. This paper presents a new framework on modeling uncertainty in ontologies based on bayesian networks (BN). In our approach, ontology Web language (OWL) is extended to add probabilistic markups for attaching probability information, the source and target ontologies (expressed by patulous OWL) are translated into bayesian networks (BNs), the mapping between the two ontologies can be digged out by constructing the conditional probability tables (CPTs) of the BN using a improved algorithm named I-IPFP based on iterative proportional fitting procedure (IPFP). The basic idea of this framework and algorithm are validated by positive results from computer experiments.

  7. Research on Bayesian Network Based User's Interest Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Weifeng; XU Baowen; CUI Zifeng; XU Lei

    2007-01-01

    It has very realistic significance for improving the quality of users' accessing information to filter and selectively retrieve the large number of information on the Internet. On the basis of analyzing the existing users' interest models and some basic questions of users' interest (representation, derivation and identification of users' interest), a Bayesian network based users' interest model is given. In this model, the users' interest reduction algorithm based on Markov Blanket model is used to reduce the interest noise, and then users' interested and not interested documents are used to train the Bayesian network. Compared to the simple model, this model has the following advantages like small space requirements, simple reasoning method and high recognition rate. The experiment result shows this model can more appropriately reflect the user's interest, and has higher performance and good usability.

  8. [A medical image semantic modeling based on hierarchical Bayesian networks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chunyi; Ma, Lihong; Yin, Junxun; Chen, Jianyu

    2009-04-01

    A semantic modeling approach for medical image semantic retrieval based on hierarchical Bayesian networks was proposed, in allusion to characters of medical images. It used GMM (Gaussian mixture models) to map low-level image features into object semantics with probabilities, then it captured high-level semantics through fusing these object semantics using a Bayesian network, so that it built a multi-layer medical image semantic model, aiming to enable automatic image annotation and semantic retrieval by using various keywords at different semantic levels. As for the validity of this method, we have built a multi-level semantic model from a small set of astrocytoma MRI (magnetic resonance imaging) samples, in order to extract semantics of astrocytoma in malignant degree. Experiment results show that this is a superior approach.

  9. Dynamic Bayesian Network Based Prognosis in Machining Processes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DONG Ming; YANG Zhi-bo

    2008-01-01

    Condition based maintenance (CBM) is becoming more and more popular in equipment main-tenance. A prerequisite to widespread deployment of CBM technology and practice in industry is effectivediagnostics and prognostics. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) based prognosis method was investigated topredict the remaining useful life (RUL) for an equipment. First, a DBN based prognosis framework and specificsteps for building a DBN based prognosis model were presented. Then, the corresponding inference algorithmsfor DBN based prognosis were provided. Finally, a prognosis procedure based on particle filtering algorithmswas used to predict the RUL of drill-bits of a vertical drilling machine, which is commonly used in industrialprocess. Preliminary experimental results are promising.

  10. Stochastic margin-based structure learning of Bayesian network classifiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pernkopf, Franz; Wohlmayr, Michael

    2013-02-01

    The margin criterion for parameter learning in graphical models gained significant impact over the last years. We use the maximum margin score for discriminatively optimizing the structure of Bayesian network classifiers. Furthermore, greedy hill-climbing and simulated annealing search heuristics are applied to determine the classifier structures. In the experiments, we demonstrate the advantages of maximum margin optimized Bayesian network structures in terms of classification performance compared to traditionally used discriminative structure learning methods. Stochastic simulated annealing requires less score evaluations than greedy heuristics. Additionally, we compare generative and discriminative parameter learning on both generatively and discriminatively structured Bayesian network classifiers. Margin-optimized Bayesian network classifiers achieve similar classification performance as support vector machines. Moreover, missing feature values during classification can be handled by discriminatively optimized Bayesian network classifiers, a case where purely discriminative classifiers usually require mechanisms to complete unknown feature values in the data first.

  11. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance Using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes how risk-based decision making can be used for maintenance planning of components exposed to degradation such as fatigue in offshore wind turbines. In fatigue models, large epistemic uncertainties are usually present. These can be reduced if monitoring results are used to upd...... to update the models, and hereby a better basis for decision making is obtained. An application example shows how a Bayesian network model can be used as a tool for updating the model and assist in risk-based decision making....

  12. Bayesian Network Structure Learning Based On Rough Set and Mutual Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuhong Feng

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In Bayesian network structure learning for incomplete data set, a common problem is too many attributes causing low efficiency and high computation complexity. In this paper, an algorithm of attribute reduction based on rough set is introduced. The algorithm can effectively reduce the dimension of attributes and quickly determine the network structure using mutual information for Bayesian network structure learning.

  13. Community Detection for Multiplex Social Networks Based on Relational Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiang, Jiuchuan; Jaeger, Manfred

    2014-01-01

    Many techniques have been proposed for community detection in social networks. Most of these techniques are only designed for networks defined by a single relation. However, many real networks are multiplex networks that contain multiple types of relations and different attributes on the nodes....... In this paper we propose to use relational Bayesian networks for the specification of probabilistic network models, and develop inference techniques that solve the community detection problem based on these models. The use of relational Bayesian networks as a flexible high-level modeling framework enables us...... to express different models capturing different aspects of community detection in multiplex networks in a coherent manner, and to use a single inference mechanism for all models....

  14. Bayesian Model Selection with Network Based Diffusion Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whalen, Andrew; Hoppitt, William J E

    2016-01-01

    A number of recent studies have used Network Based Diffusion Analysis (NBDA) to detect the role of social transmission in the spread of a novel behavior through a population. In this paper we present a unified framework for performing NBDA in a Bayesian setting, and demonstrate how the Watanabe Akaike Information Criteria (WAIC) can be used for model selection. We present a specific example of applying this method to Time to Acquisition Diffusion Analysis (TADA). To examine the robustness of this technique, we performed a large scale simulation study and found that NBDA using WAIC could recover the correct model of social transmission under a wide range of cases, including under the presence of random effects, individual level variables, and alternative models of social transmission. This work suggests that NBDA is an effective and widely applicable tool for uncovering whether social transmission underpins the spread of a novel behavior, and may still provide accurate results even when key model assumptions are relaxed.

  15. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

     Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...

  16. Bayesian Model Selection With Network Based Diffusion Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew eWhalen

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available A number of recent studies have used Network Based Diffusion Analysis (NBDA to detect the role of social transmission in the spread of a novel behavior through a population. In this paper we present a unified framework for performing NBDA in a Bayesian setting, and demonstrate how the Watanabe Akaike Information Criteria (WAIC can be used for model selection. We present a specific example of applying this method to Time to Acquisition Diffusion Analysis (TADA. To examine the robustness of this technique, we performed a large scale simulation study and found that NBDA using WAIC could recover the correct model of social transmission under a wide range of cases, including under the presence of random effects, individual level variables, and alternative models of social transmission. This work suggests that NBDA is an effective and widely applicable tool for uncovering whether social transmission underpins the spread of a novel behavior, and may still provide accurate results even when key model assumptions are relaxed.

  17. A Probability-based Evolutionary Algorithm with Mutations to Learn Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sho Fukuda

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian networks are regarded as one of the essential tools to analyze causal relationship between events from data. To learn the structure of highly-reliable Bayesian networks from data as quickly as possible is one of the important problems that several studies have been tried to achieve. In recent years, probability-based evolutionary algorithms have been proposed as a new efficient approach to learn Bayesian networks. In this paper, we target on one of the probability-based evolutionary algorithms called PBIL (Probability-Based Incremental Learning, and propose a new mutation operator. Through performance evaluation, we found that the proposed mutation operator has a good performance in learning Bayesian networks

  18. Probe Error Modeling Research Based on Bayesian Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wu Huaiqiang; Xing Zilong; Zhang Jian; Yan Yan

    2015-01-01

    Probe calibration is carried out under specific conditions; most of the error caused by the change of speed parameter has not been corrected. In order to reduce the measuring error influence on measurement accuracy, this article analyzes the relationship between speed parameter and probe error, and use Bayesian network to establish the model of probe error. Model takes account of prior knowledge and sample data, with the updating of data, which can reflect the change of the errors of the probe and constantly revised modeling results.

  19. Konstruksi Bayesian Network Dengan Algoritma Bayesian Association Rule Mining Network

    OpenAIRE

    Octavian

    2015-01-01

    Beberapa tahun terakhir, Bayesian Network telah menjadi konsep yang populer digunakan dalam berbagai bidang kehidupan seperti dalam pengambilan sebuah keputusan dan menentukan peluang suatu kejadian dapat terjadi. Sayangnya, pengkonstruksian struktur dari Bayesian Network itu sendiri bukanlah hal yang sederhana. Oleh sebab itu, penelitian ini mencoba memperkenalkan algoritma Bayesian Association Rule Mining Network untuk memudahkan kita dalam mengkonstruksi Bayesian Network berdasarkan data ...

  20. Bayesian Network Based Fault Prognosis via Bond Graph Modeling of High-Speed Railway Traction Device

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunkai Wu

    2015-01-01

    component-level faults accurately for a high-speed railway traction system, a fault prognosis approach via Bayesian network and bond graph modeling techniques is proposed. The inherent structure of a railway traction system is represented by bond graph model, based on which a multilayer Bayesian network is developed for fault propagation analysis and fault prediction. For complete and incomplete data sets, two different parameter learning algorithms such as Bayesian estimation and expectation maximization (EM algorithm are adopted to determine the conditional probability table of the Bayesian network. The proposed prognosis approach using Pearl’s polytree propagation algorithm for joint probability reasoning can predict the failure probabilities of leaf nodes based on the current status of root nodes. Verification results in a high-speed railway traction simulation system can demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  1. Research of Gene Regulatory Network with Multi-Time Delay Based on Bayesian Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Bei; MENG Fanjiang; LI Yong; LIU Liyan

    2008-01-01

    The gene regulatory network was reconstructed according to time-series microarray data getting from hybridization at different time between gene chips to analyze coordination and restriction between genes. An algorithm for controlling the gene expression regulatory network of the whole cell was designed using Bayesian network which provides an effective aided analysis for gene regulatory network.

  2. A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zengkai; Liu, Yonghong; Shan, Hongkai; Cai, Baoping; Huang, Qing

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information.

  3. Implementing relevance feedback in ligand-based virtual screening using Bayesian inference network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdo, Ammar; Salim, Naomie; Ahmed, Ali

    2011-10-01

    Recently, the use of the Bayesian network as an alternative to existing tools for similarity-based virtual screening has received noticeable attention from researchers in the chemoinformatics field. The main aim of the Bayesian network model is to improve the retrieval effectiveness of similarity-based virtual screening. To this end, different models of the Bayesian network have been developed. In our previous works, the retrieval performance of the Bayesian network was observed to improve significantly when multiple reference structures or fragment weightings were used. In this article, the authors enhance the Bayesian inference network (BIN) using the relevance feedback information. In this approach, a few high-ranking structures of unknown activity were filtered from the outputs of BIN, based on a single active reference structure, to form a set of active reference structures. This set of active reference structures was used in two distinct techniques for carrying out such BIN searching: reweighting the fragments in the reference structures and group fusion techniques. Simulated virtual screening experiments with three MDL Drug Data Report data sets showed that the proposed techniques provide simple ways of enhancing the cost-effectiveness of ligand-based virtual screening searches, especially for higher diversity data sets.

  4. An Enhancement of Bayesian Inference Network for Ligand-Based Virtual Screening using Features Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Ahmed

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Similarity based Virtual Screening (VS deals with a large amount of data containing irrelevant and/or redundant fragments or features. Recent use of Bayesian network as an alternative for existing tools for similarity based VS has received noticeable attention of the researchers in the field of chemoinformatics. Approach: To this end, different models of Bayesian network have been developed. In this study, we enhance the Bayesian Inference Network (BIN using a subset of selected molecules features. Results: In this approach, a few features were filtered from the molecular fingerprint features based on a features selection approach. Conclusion: Simulated virtual screening experiments with MDL Drug Data Report (MDDR data sets showed that the proposed method provides simple ways of enhancing the cost effectiveness of ligand-based virtual screening searches, especially for higher diversity data set.

  5. Model Diagnostics for Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinharay, Sandip

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian networks are frequently used in educational assessments primarily for learning about students' knowledge and skills. There is a lack of works on assessing fit of Bayesian networks. This article employs the posterior predictive model checking method, a popular Bayesian model checking tool, to assess fit of simple Bayesian networks. A…

  6. Trust-Based Security Level Evaluation Using Bayesian Belief Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houmb, Siv Hilde; Ray, Indrakshi; Ray, Indrajit; Chakraborty, Sudip

    Security is not merely about technical solutions and patching vulnerabilities. Security is about trade-offs and adhering to realistic security needs, employed to support core business processes. Also, modern systems are subject to a highly competitive market, often demanding rapid development cycles, short life-time, short time-to-market, and small budgets. Security evaluation standards, such as ISO 14508 Common Criteria and ISO/IEC 27002, are not adequate for evaluating the security of many modern systems for resource limitations, time-to-market, and other constraints. Towards this end, we propose an alternative time and cost effective approach for evaluating the security level of a security solution, system or part thereof. Our approach relies on collecting information from different sources, who are trusted to varying degrees, and on using a trust measure to aggregate available information when deriving security level. Our approach is quantitative and implemented as a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) topology, allowing us to reason over uncertain information and seemingly aggregating disparate information. We illustrate our approach by deriving the security level of two alternative Denial of Service (DoS) solutions. Our approach can also be used in the context of security solution trade-off analysis.

  7. Using Bayesian Networks for Candidate Generation in Consistency-based Diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimhan, Sriram; Mengshoel, Ole

    2008-01-01

    Consistency-based diagnosis relies heavily on the assumption that discrepancies between model predictions and sensor observations can be detected accurately. When sources of uncertainty like sensor noise and model abstraction exist robust schemes have to be designed to make a binary decision on whether predictions are consistent with observations. This risks the occurrence of false alarms and missed alarms when an erroneous decision is made. Moreover when multiple sensors (with differing sensing properties) are available the degree of match between predictions and observations can be used to guide the search for fault candidates. In this paper we propose a novel approach to handle this problem using Bayesian networks. In the consistency- based diagnosis formulation, automatically generated Bayesian networks are used to encode a probabilistic measure of fit between predictions and observations. A Bayesian network inference algorithm is used to compute most probable fault candidates.

  8. Bayesian network modeling method based on case reasoning for emergency decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    XU Lei

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian network has the abilities of probability expression, uncertainty management and multi-information fusion.It can support emergency decision-making, which can improve the efficiency of decision-making.Emergency decision-making is highly time sensitive, which requires shortening the Bayesian Network modeling time as far as possible.Traditional Bayesian network modeling methods are clearly unable to meet that requirement.Thus, a Bayesian network modeling method based on case reasoning for emergency decision-making is proposed.The method can obtain optional cases through case matching by the functions of similarity degree and deviation degree.Then,new Bayesian network can be built through case adjustment by case merging and pruning.An example is presented to illustrate and test the proposed method.The result shows that the method does not have a huge search space or need sample data.The only requirement is the collection of expert knowledge and historical case models.Compared with traditional methods, the proposed method can reuse historical case models, which can reduce the modeling time and improve the efficiency.

  9. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

    Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...

  10. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

    Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...

  11. Evaluation of a partial genome screening of two asthma susceptibility regions using bayesian network based bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ildikó Ungvári

    Full Text Available Genetic studies indicate high number of potential factors related to asthma. Based on earlier linkage analyses we selected the 11q13 and 14q22 asthma susceptibility regions, for which we designed a partial genome screening study using 145 SNPs in 1201 individuals (436 asthmatic children and 765 controls. The results were evaluated with traditional frequentist methods and we applied a new statistical method, called bayesian network based bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance (BN-BMLA. This method uses bayesian network representation to provide detailed characterization of the relevance of factors, such as joint significance, the type of dependency, and multi-target aspects. We estimated posteriors for these relations within the bayesian statistical framework, in order to estimate the posteriors whether a variable is directly relevant or its association is only mediated.With frequentist methods one SNP (rs3751464 in the FRMD6 gene provided evidence for an association with asthma (OR = 1.43(1.2-1.8; p = 3×10(-4. The possible role of the FRMD6 gene in asthma was also confirmed in an animal model and human asthmatics.In the BN-BMLA analysis altogether 5 SNPs in 4 genes were found relevant in connection with asthma phenotype: PRPF19 on chromosome 11, and FRMD6, PTGER2 and PTGDR on chromosome 14. In a subsequent step a partial dataset containing rhinitis and further clinical parameters was used, which allowed the analysis of relevance of SNPs for asthma and multiple targets. These analyses suggested that SNPs in the AHNAK and MS4A2 genes were indirectly associated with asthma. This paper indicates that BN-BMLA explores the relevant factors more comprehensively than traditional statistical methods and extends the scope of strong relevance based methods to include partial relevance, global characterization of relevance and multi-target relevance.

  12. Maximum margin Bayesian network classifiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pernkopf, Franz; Wohlmayr, Michael; Tschiatschek, Sebastian

    2012-03-01

    We present a maximum margin parameter learning algorithm for Bayesian network classifiers using a conjugate gradient (CG) method for optimization. In contrast to previous approaches, we maintain the normalization constraints on the parameters of the Bayesian network during optimization, i.e., the probabilistic interpretation of the model is not lost. This enables us to handle missing features in discriminatively optimized Bayesian networks. In experiments, we compare the classification performance of maximum margin parameter learning to conditional likelihood and maximum likelihood learning approaches. Discriminative parameter learning significantly outperforms generative maximum likelihood estimation for naive Bayes and tree augmented naive Bayes structures on all considered data sets. Furthermore, maximizing the margin dominates the conditional likelihood approach in terms of classification performance in most cases. We provide results for a recently proposed maximum margin optimization approach based on convex relaxation. While the classification results are highly similar, our CG-based optimization is computationally up to orders of magnitude faster. Margin-optimized Bayesian network classifiers achieve classification performance comparable to support vector machines (SVMs) using fewer parameters. Moreover, we show that unanticipated missing feature values during classification can be easily processed by discriminatively optimized Bayesian network classifiers, a case where discriminative classifiers usually require mechanisms to complete unknown feature values in the data first.

  13. Using Discrete Loss Functions and Weighted Kappa for Classification: An Illustration Based on Bayesian Network Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwick, Rebecca; Lenaburg, Lubella

    2009-01-01

    In certain data analyses (e.g., multiple discriminant analysis and multinomial log-linear modeling), classification decisions are made based on the estimated posterior probabilities that individuals belong to each of several distinct categories. In the Bayesian network literature, this type of classification is often accomplished by assigning…

  14. Probabilistic Inferences in Bayesian Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Ding, Jianguo

    2010-01-01

    This chapter summarizes the popular inferences methods in Bayesian networks. The results demonstrates that the evidence can propagated across the Bayesian networks by any links, whatever it is forward or backward or intercausal style. The belief updating of Bayesian networks can be obtained by various available inference techniques. Theoretically, exact inferences in Bayesian networks is feasible and manageable. However, the computing and inference is NP-hard. That means, in applications, in ...

  15. MapReduce Based Parallel Bayesian Network for Manufacturing Quality Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Mao-Kuan; Ming, Xin-Guo; Zhang, Xian-Yu; Li, Guo-Ming

    2017-09-01

    Increasing complexity of industrial products and manufacturing processes have challenged conventional statistics based quality management approaches in the circumstances of dynamic production. A Bayesian network and big data analytics integrated approach for manufacturing process quality analysis and control is proposed. Based on Hadoop distributed architecture and MapReduce parallel computing model, big volume and variety quality related data generated during the manufacturing process could be dealt with. Artificial intelligent algorithms, including Bayesian network learning, classification and reasoning, are embedded into the Reduce process. Relying on the ability of the Bayesian network in dealing with dynamic and uncertain problem and the parallel computing power of MapReduce, Bayesian network of impact factors on quality are built based on prior probability distribution and modified with posterior probability distribution. A case study on hull segment manufacturing precision management for ship and offshore platform building shows that computing speed accelerates almost directly proportionally to the increase of computing nodes. It is also proved that the proposed model is feasible for locating and reasoning of root causes, forecasting of manufacturing outcome, and intelligent decision for precision problem solving. The integration of bigdata analytics and BN method offers a whole new perspective in manufacturing quality control.

  16. A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zengkai Liu

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information.

  17. Reconstruction of Gene Regulatory Networks Based on Two-Stage Bayesian Network Structure Learning Algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gui-xia Liu; Wei Feng; Han Wang; Lei Liu; Chun-guang Zhou

    2009-01-01

    In the post-genomic biology era, the reconstruction of gene regulatory networks from microarray gene expression data is very important to understand the underlying biological system, and it has been a challenging task in bioinformatics. The Bayesian network model has been used in reconstructing the gene regulatory network for its advantages, but how to determine the network structure and parameters is still important to be explored. This paper proposes a two-stage structure learning algorithm which integrates immune evolution algorithm to build a Bayesian network .The new algorithm is evaluated with the use of both simulated and yeast cell cycle data. The experimental results indicate that the proposed algorithm can find many of the known real regulatory relationships from literature and predict the others unknown with high validity and accuracy.

  18. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

    2004-01-01

    We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...... and differentiating these circuits in time linear in their size. We report on experimental results showing the successful compilation, and efficient inference, on relational Bayesian networks whose {\\primula}--generated propositional instances have thousands of variables, and whose jointrees have clusters...

  19. Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herskovits, Edward H.; Gerring, Joan P.

    2003-01-01

    Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

  20. The Diagnosis of Reciprocating Machinery by Bayesian Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    A Bayesian Network is a reasoning tool based on probability theory and has many advantages that other reasoning tools do not have. This paper discusses the basic theory of Bayesian networks and studies the problems in constructing Bayesian networks. The paper also constructs a Bayesian diagnosis network of a reciprocating compressor. The example helps us to draw a conclusion that Bayesian diagnosis networks can diagnose reciprocating machinery effectively.

  1. Prediction of annual water consumption in Guangdong Province based on Bayesian neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Tao; Xue, Huifeng

    2017-06-01

    In the context of the implementation of the most stringent water resources management system, the role of water demand forecasting for regional water resources management is becoming increasingly significant. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of water consumption in Guangdong Province, we made the forecast index system of annual water consumption, and constructed the forecast model of annual water consumption of BP neural network, then optimized the regularization BP neural network in utilization rate of water. The results showed that the average absolute percentage error of Bayesian neural network prediction model and BP neural network prediction model is 0.70% and 0.46% respectively. BP neural network model by Bayesian regularization is more ability to improve the accuracy of about 0.24%, more in line with the regional annual water demand forecast high precision requirements. Take the planning index value of Guangdong Province’s thirteen five plan into Bayesian neural network forecasting model, and its forecast value is 45.432 billion cubic meters, which will reach 456.04 billion cubic meters of red water in Guangdong Province in 2020.

  2. Bayesian Network Assessment Method for Civil Aviation Safety Based on Flight Delays

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    Flight delays and safety are the principal contradictions in the sound development of civil aviation. Flight delays often come up and induce civil aviation safety risk simultaneously. Based on flight delays, the random characteristics of civil aviation safety risk are analyzed. Flight delays have been deemed to a potential safety hazard. The change rules and characteristics of civil aviation safety risk based on flight delays have been analyzed. Bayesian networks (BN) have been used to build ...

  3. Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego

    2007-01-01

    This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

  4. Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego

    2007-01-01

    This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

  5. A Bayesian Network-Based Probabilistic Framework for Drought Forecasting and Outlook

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji Yae Shin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliable drought forecasting is necessary to develop mitigation plans to cope with severe drought. This study developed a probabilistic scheme for drought forecasting and outlook combined with quantification of the prediction uncertainties. The Bayesian network was mainly employed as a statistical scheme for probabilistic forecasting that can represent the cause-effect relationships between the variables. The structure of the Bayesian network-based drought forecasting (BNDF model was designed using the past, current, and forecasted drought condition. In this study, the drought conditions were represented by the standardized precipitation index (SPI. The accuracy of forecasted SPIs was assessed by comparing the observed SPIs and confidence intervals (CIs, exhibiting the associated uncertainty. Then, this study suggested the drought outlook framework based on probabilistic drought forecasting results. The overall results provided sufficient agreement between the observed and forecasted drought conditions in the outlook framework.

  6. Study on uncertainty of geospatial semantic Web services composition based on broker approach and Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaodong; Cui, Weihong; Liu, Zhen; Ouyang, Fucheng

    2008-10-01

    The Semantic Web has a major weakness which is lacking of a principled means to represent and reason about uncertainty. This is also located in the services composition approaches such as BPEL4WS and Semantic Description Model. We analyze the uncertainty of Geospatial Web Service composition through mining the knowledge in historical records of composition based on Broker approach and Bayesian Networks. We proved this approach is effective and efficient through a sample scenario in this paper.

  7. Research on Evaluation Method Based on Modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neng-pu Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a novel evaluation method, which can be applied in the field of risk assessment, project management, cause analysis, and so forth. Two core technologies are used in the method, namely, modified Buckley Decision Making and Bayesian Network. Based on the modified Buckley Decision Making, the fuzzy probabilities of element factors are calibrated. By the forward and backward calculation of Bayesian Network, the structure importance, probability importance, and criticality importance of each factor are calculated and discussed. A numerical example of risk evaluation for dangerous goods transport process is given to verify the method. The results indicate that the method can efficiently identify the weakest element factor. In addition, the method can improve the reliability and objectivity for evaluation.

  8. Regularization of non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian networks with global information-coupling based on hierarchical Bayesian models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    2013-01-01

    To relax the homogeneity assumption of classical dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), various recent studies have combined DBNs with multiple changepoint processes. The underlying assumption is that the parameters associated with time series segments delimited by multiple changepoints are a priori inde

  9. Online Variational Bayesian Filtering-Based Mobile Target Tracking in Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bingpeng Zhou

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The received signal strength (RSS-based online tracking for a mobile node in wireless sensor networks (WSNs is investigated in this paper. Firstly, a multi-layer dynamic Bayesian network (MDBN is introduced to characterize the target mobility with either directional or undirected movement. In particular, it is proposed to employ the Wishart distribution to approximate the time-varying RSS measurement precision’s randomness due to the target movement. It is shown that the proposed MDBN offers a more general analysis model via incorporating the underlying statistical information of both the target movement and observations, which can be utilized to improve the online tracking capability by exploiting the Bayesian statistics. Secondly, based on the MDBN model, a mean-field variational Bayesian filtering (VBF algorithm is developed to realize the online tracking of a mobile target in the presence of nonlinear observations and time-varying RSS precision, wherein the traditional Bayesian filtering scheme cannot be directly employed. Thirdly, a joint optimization between the real-time velocity and its prior expectation is proposed to enable online velocity tracking in the proposed online tacking scheme. Finally, the associated Bayesian Cramer–Rao Lower Bound (BCRLB analysis and numerical simulations are conducted. Our analysis unveils that, by exploiting the potential state information via the general MDBN model, the proposed VBF algorithm provides a promising solution to the online tracking of a mobile node in WSNs. In addition, it is shown that the final tracking accuracy linearly scales with its expectation when the RSS measurement precision is time-varying.

  10. Online variational Bayesian filtering-based mobile target tracking in wireless sensor networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Bingpeng; Chen, Qingchun; Li, Tiffany Jing; Xiao, Pei

    2014-11-11

    The received signal strength (RSS)-based online tracking for a mobile node in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is investigated in this paper. Firstly, a multi-layer dynamic Bayesian network (MDBN) is introduced to characterize the target mobility with either directional or undirected movement. In particular, it is proposed to employ the Wishart distribution to approximate the time-varying RSS measurement precision's randomness due to the target movement. It is shown that the proposed MDBN offers a more general analysis model via incorporating the underlying statistical information of both the target movement and observations, which can be utilized to improve the online tracking capability by exploiting the Bayesian statistics. Secondly, based on the MDBN model, a mean-field variational Bayesian filtering (VBF) algorithm is developed to realize the online tracking of a mobile target in the presence of nonlinear observations and time-varying RSS precision, wherein the traditional Bayesian filtering scheme cannot be directly employed. Thirdly, a joint optimization between the real-time velocity and its prior expectation is proposed to enable online velocity tracking in the proposed online tacking scheme. Finally, the associated Bayesian Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (BCRLB) analysis and numerical simulations are conducted. Our analysis unveils that, by exploiting the potential state information via the general MDBN model, the proposed VBF algorithm provides a promising solution to the online tracking of a mobile node in WSNs. In addition, it is shown that the final tracking accuracy linearly scales with its expectation when the RSS measurement precision is time-varying.

  11. [Using the Tabu-search-algorithm-based Bayesian network to analyze the risk factors of coronary heart diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Z; Zhang, X L; Rao, H X; Wang, H F; Wang, X; Qiu, L X

    2016-06-01

    Under the available data gathered from a coronary study questionnaires with 10 792 cases, this article constructs a Bayesian network model based on the tabu search algorithm and calculates the conditional probability of each node, using the Maximum-likelihood. Pros and cons of the Bayesian network model are evaluated to compare against the logistic regression model in the analysis of coronary factors. Applicability of this network model in clinical study is also investigated. Results show that Bayesian network model can reveal the complex correlations among influencing factors on the coronary and the relationship with coronary heart diseases. Bayesian network model seems promising and more practical than the logistic regression model in analyzing the influencing factors of coronary heart disease.

  12. An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

    2014-03-01

    Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

  13. Risk-Based Operation and Maintenance Using Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes how risk-based decision making can be used for maintenance planning of components exposed to degradation such as fatigue in offshore wind turbines. In fatigue models, large epistemic uncertainties are usually present. These can be reduced if monitoring results are used...

  14. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....

  15. An empirical Bayesian approach for model-based inference of cellular signaling networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klinke David J

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A common challenge in systems biology is to infer mechanistic descriptions of biological process given limited observations of a biological system. Mathematical models are frequently used to represent a belief about the causal relationships among proteins within a signaling network. Bayesian methods provide an attractive framework for inferring the validity of those beliefs in the context of the available data. However, efficient sampling of high-dimensional parameter space and appropriate convergence criteria provide barriers for implementing an empirical Bayesian approach. The objective of this study was to apply an Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo technique to a typical study of cellular signaling pathways. Results As an illustrative example, a kinetic model for the early signaling events associated with the epidermal growth factor (EGF signaling network was calibrated against dynamic measurements observed in primary rat hepatocytes. A convergence criterion, based upon the Gelman-Rubin potential scale reduction factor, was applied to the model predictions. The posterior distributions of the parameters exhibited complicated structure, including significant covariance between specific parameters and a broad range of variance among the parameters. The model predictions, in contrast, were narrowly distributed and were used to identify areas of agreement among a collection of experimental studies. Conclusion In summary, an empirical Bayesian approach was developed for inferring the confidence that one can place in a particular model that describes signal transduction mechanisms and for inferring inconsistencies in experimental measurements.

  16. Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2009-02-01

    Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly, it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism and thus avoids essentially the local-trap problem suffered by conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches in learning Bayesian networks. Secondly, it falls into the class of dynamic importance sampling algorithms; the network features can be inferred by dynamically weighted averaging the samples generated in the learning process, and the resulting estimates can have much lower variation than the single model-based estimates. The numerical results indicate that our approach can mix much faster over the space of Bayesian networks than the conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Dynamic Bayesian Network Modeling of Game Based Diagnostic Assessments. CRESST Report 837

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Roy

    2014-01-01

    Digital games offer an appealing environment for assessing student proficiencies, including skills and misconceptions in a diagnostic setting. This paper proposes a dynamic Bayesian network modeling approach for observations of student performance from an educational video game. A Bayesian approach to model construction, calibration, and use in…

  18. Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores

  19. Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

    2006-01-01

    We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...... by evaluating and differentiating these circuits in time linear in their size. We report on experimental results showing successful compilation and efficient inference on relational Bayesian networks, whose PRIMULA--generated propositional instances have thousands of variables, and whose jointrees have clusters...

  20. A Study of New Method for Weapon System Effectiveness Evaluation Based on Bayesian Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Dai-wei; GU Liang-xian; PAN Lei

    2008-01-01

    As weapon system effectiveness is affected by many factors, its evaluation is essentially a multi-criterion decision making problem for its complexity. The evaluation model of the effectiveness is established on the basis of metrics architecture of the effectiveness. The Bayesian network, which is used to evaluate the effectiveness, is established based on the metrics architecture and the evaluation models. For getting the weights of the metrics by Bayesian network, subjective initial values of the weights are given, gradient ascent algorithm is adopted, and the reasonable values of the weights are achieved. And then the effectiveness of every weapon system project is gained. The weapon system, whose effectiveness is relative maximum, is the optimization system. The research result shows that this method can solve the problem of AHP method which evaluation results are not compatible to the practice results and overcome the shortcoming of neural network in multilayer and multi-criterion decision. The method offers a new approaeh for evaluating the effectiveness.

  1. Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ke; Zhang, Qiuju; Wang, Kun; Chen, Peng; Wang, Huaqing

    2016-01-08

    A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF) and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN) is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal) and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs) for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  2. Predicting Click-Through Rates of New Advertisements Based on the Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhipeng Fang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Most classical search engines choose and rank advertisements (ads based on their click-through rates (CTRs. To predict an ad’s CTR, historical click information is frequently concerned. To accurately predict the CTR of the new ads is challenging and critical for real world applications, since we do not have plentiful historical data about these ads. Adopting Bayesian network (BN as the effective framework for representing and inferring dependencies and uncertainties among variables, in this paper, we establish a BN-based model to predict the CTRs of new ads. First, we built a Bayesian network of the keywords that are used to describe the ads in a certain domain, called keyword BN and abbreviated as KBN. Second, we proposed an algorithm for approximate inferences of the KBN to find similar keywords with those that describe the new ads. Finally based on the similar keywords, we obtain the similar ads and then calculate the CTR of the new ad by using the CTRs of the ads that are similar with the new ad. Experimental results show the efficiency and accuracy of our method.

  3. Domino effect analysis using Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul; Cozzani, Valerio

    2013-02-01

    A new methodology is introduced based on Bayesian network both to model domino effect propagation patterns and to estimate the domino effect probability at different levels. The flexible structure and the unique modeling techniques offered by Bayesian network make it possible to analyze domino effects through a probabilistic framework, considering synergistic effects, noisy probabilities, and common cause failures. Further, the uncertainties and the complex interactions among the domino effect components are captured using Bayesian network. The probabilities of events are updated in the light of new information, and the most probable path of the domino effect is determined on the basis of the new data gathered. This study shows how probability updating helps to update the domino effect model either qualitatively or quantitatively. The methodology is applied to a hypothetical example and also to an earlier-studied case study. These examples accentuate the effectiveness of Bayesian network in modeling domino effects in processing facility. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. An introduction to Gaussian Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco

    2010-01-01

    The extraction of regulatory networks and pathways from postgenomic data is important for drug -discovery and development, as the extracted pathways reveal how genes or proteins regulate each other. Following up on the seminal paper of Friedman et al. (J Comput Biol 7:601-620, 2000), Bayesian networks have been widely applied as a popular tool to this end in systems biology research. Their popularity stems from the tractability of the marginal likelihood of the network structure, which is a consistent scoring scheme in the Bayesian context. This score is based on an integration over the entire parameter space, for which highly expensive computational procedures have to be applied when using more complex -models based on differential equations; for example, see (Bioinformatics 24:833-839, 2008). This chapter gives an introduction to reverse engineering regulatory networks and pathways with Gaussian Bayesian networks, that is Bayesian networks with the probabilistic BGe scoring metric [see (Geiger and Heckerman 235-243, 1995)]. In the BGe model, the data are assumed to stem from a Gaussian distribution and a normal-Wishart prior is assigned to the unknown parameters. Gaussian Bayesian network methodology for analysing static observational, static interventional as well as dynamic (observational) time series data will be described in detail in this chapter. Finally, we apply these Bayesian network inference methods (1) to observational and interventional flow cytometry (protein) data from the well-known RAF pathway to evaluate the global network reconstruction accuracy of Bayesian network inference and (2) to dynamic gene expression time series data of nine circadian genes in Arabidopsis thaliana to reverse engineer the unknown regulatory network topology for this domain.

  5. [Overcoming the limitations of the descriptive and categorical approaches in psychiatric diagnosis: a proposal based on Bayesian networks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorias, Soli

    2015-01-01

    Efforts to overcome the problems of descriptive and categorical approaches have not yielded results. In the present article, psychiatric diagnosis using Bayesian networks is proposed. Instead of a yes/no decision, Bayesian networks give the probability of diagnostic category inclusion, thereby yielding both a graded, i.e., dimensional diagnosis, and a value of the certainty of the diagnosis. With the use of Bayesian networks in the diagnosis of mental disorders, information about etiology, associated features, treatment outcome, and laboratory results may be used in addition to clinical signs and symptoms, with each of these factors contributing proportionally to their own specificity and sensitivity. Furthermore, a diagnosis (albeit one with a lower probability) can be made even with incomplete, uncertain, or partially erroneous information, and patients whose symptoms are below the diagnostic threshold can be evaluated. Lastly, there is no need of NOS or "unspecified" categories, and comorbid disorders become different dimensions of the diagnostic evaluation. Bayesian diagnoses allow the preservation of current categories and assessment methods, and may be used concurrently with criteria-based diagnoses. Users need not put in extra effort except to collect more comprehensive information. Unlike the Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) project, the Bayesian approach neither increases the diagnostic validity of existing categories nor explains the pathophysiological mechanisms of mental disorders. It, however, can be readily integrated to present classification systems. Therefore, the Bayesian approach may be an intermediate phase between criteria-based diagnosis and the RDoC ideal.

  6. Irregular-Time Bayesian Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Ramati, Michael

    2012-01-01

    In many fields observations are performed irregularly along time, due to either measurement limitations or lack of a constant immanent rate. While discrete-time Markov models (as Dynamic Bayesian Networks) introduce either inefficient computation or an information loss to reasoning about such processes, continuous-time Markov models assume either a discrete state space (as Continuous-Time Bayesian Networks), or a flat continuous state space (as stochastic dif- ferential equations). To address these problems, we present a new modeling class called Irregular-Time Bayesian Networks (ITBNs), generalizing Dynamic Bayesian Networks, allowing substantially more compact representations, and increasing the expressivity of the temporal dynamics. In addition, a globally optimal solution is guaranteed when learning temporal systems, provided that they are fully observed at the same irregularly spaced time-points, and a semiparametric subclass of ITBNs is introduced to allow further adaptation to the irregular nature of t...

  7. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents.

  8. Comprehensive Influence Model of Preschool Children’s Personality Development Based on the Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Sun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is crucial to ascertain the comprehensive influence factors on personality for making effective cultivating plan. However, most existing literatures focus on the effect of individual factor on the personality. In order to comprehensively investigate the causal influences of preschool children’s temperament, school factors (teacher expectation and peer acceptance, and family factors (parental coparenting style, parental education value, and parental parenting style on the personality and the probability of the dependencies among these influence factors, we constructed the influencing factor model of personality development based on the Bayesian network. The models not only reflect the influence on personality development as a whole, but also obtain the probability relationships among the factors. Compared with other influence factors including family and school factors, temperament has more effect on the personality. In addition, teacher expectation also has an important influence on the personality. The experimental results show that it is a valuable exploration to construct the Bayesian network for comprehensively investigating the causal relationships between preschool children’s personality and related influence factors. Further, these results will be helpful to the cultivation of healthy personality.

  9. Predicting the functions of long noncoding RNAs using RNA-seq based on Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Yun; Lv, Yanling; Zhao, Hongying; Gong, Yonghui; Hu, Jing; Li, Feng; Xu, Jinyuan; Bai, Jing; Yu, Fulong; Li, Xia

    2015-01-01

    Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) have been shown to play key roles in various biological processes. However, functions of most lncRNAs are poorly characterized. Here, we represent a framework to predict functions of lncRNAs through construction of a regulatory network between lncRNAs and protein-coding genes. Using RNA-seq data, the transcript profiles of lncRNAs and protein-coding genes are constructed. Using the Bayesian network method, a regulatory network, which implies dependency relations between lncRNAs and protein-coding genes, was built. In combining protein interaction network, highly connected coding genes linked by a given lncRNA were subsequently used to predict functions of the lncRNA through functional enrichment. Application of our method to prostate RNA-seq data showed that 762 lncRNAs in the constructed regulatory network were assigned functions. We found that lncRNAs are involved in diverse biological processes, such as tissue development or embryo development (e.g., nervous system development and mesoderm development). By comparison with functions inferred using the neighboring gene-based method and functions determined using lncRNA knockdown experiments, our method can provide comparable predicted functions of lncRNAs. Overall, our method can be applied to emerging RNA-seq data, which will help researchers identify complex relations between lncRNAs and coding genes and reveal important functions of lncRNAs.

  10. Predicting the Functions of Long Noncoding RNAs Using RNA-Seq Based on Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Xiao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs have been shown to play key roles in various biological processes. However, functions of most lncRNAs are poorly characterized. Here, we represent a framework to predict functions of lncRNAs through construction of a regulatory network between lncRNAs and protein-coding genes. Using RNA-seq data, the transcript profiles of lncRNAs and protein-coding genes are constructed. Using the Bayesian network method, a regulatory network, which implies dependency relations between lncRNAs and protein-coding genes, was built. In combining protein interaction network, highly connected coding genes linked by a given lncRNA were subsequently used to predict functions of the lncRNA through functional enrichment. Application of our method to prostate RNA-seq data showed that 762 lncRNAs in the constructed regulatory network were assigned functions. We found that lncRNAs are involved in diverse biological processes, such as tissue development or embryo development (e.g., nervous system development and mesoderm development. By comparison with functions inferred using the neighboring gene-based method and functions determined using lncRNA knockdown experiments, our method can provide comparable predicted functions of lncRNAs. Overall, our method can be applied to emerging RNA-seq data, which will help researchers identify complex relations between lncRNAs and coding genes and reveal important functions of lncRNAs.

  11. Assessment of Matrix Multiplication Learning with a Rule-Based Analytical Model--"A Bayesian Network Representation"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhidong

    2016-01-01

    This study explored an alternative assessment procedure to examine learning trajectories of matrix multiplication. It took rule-based analytical and cognitive task analysis methods specifically to break down operation rules for a given matrix multiplication. Based on the analysis results, a hierarchical Bayesian network, an assessment model,…

  12. Research on the self-defence electronic jamming decision-making based on the discrete dynamic Bayesian network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tang Zheng; Gao Xiaoguang

    2008-01-01

    The manner and conditions of running the decision-making system with self-defense electronic jamming are given.After proposing the scenario of applying discrete dynamic Bayesian network to the decision making with self-defense electronic jamming,a decision-making model with self-defense electronic jamming based on the discrete dynamic Bayesian network is established.Then jamming decision inferences by the aid of the algorithm of discrete dynamic Bayesian network are carried on.The simulating result shows that this method is able to synthesize different targets which are not predominant.In this way,various features at the same time,as well as the same feature appearing at different time complement mutually;in addition,the accuracy and reliability of electronic jamming decision making are enhanced significantly.

  13. Prediction in Health Domain Using Bayesian Networks Optimization Based on Induction Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felgaer, Pablo; Britos, Paola; García-Martínez, Ramón

    A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph in which each node represents a variable and each arc a probabilistic dependency; they are used to provide: a compact form to represent the knowledge and flexible methods of reasoning. Obtaining it from data is a learning process that is divided in two steps: structural learning and parametric learning. In this paper we define an automatic learning method that optimizes the Bayesian networks applied to classification, using a hybrid method of learning that combines the advantages of the induction techniques of the decision trees (TDIDT-C4.5) with those of the Bayesian networks. The resulting method is applied to prediction in health domain.

  14. Inferring Alcoholism SNPs and Regulatory Chemical Compounds Based on Ensemble Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huan; Sun, Jiatong; Jiang, Hong; Wang, Xianyue; Wu, Lingxiang; Wu, Wei; Wang, Qh

    2016-12-20

    The disturbance of consciousness is one of the most common symptoms of those have alcoholism and may cause disability and mortality. Previous studies indicated that several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) increase the susceptibility of alcoholism. In this study, we utilized the Ensemble Bayesian Network (EBN) method to identify causal SNPs of alcoholism based on the verified GAW14 data. Thirteen out of eighteen SNPs directly connected with alcoholism were found concordance with potential risk regions of alcoholism in OMIM database. As a number of SNPs were found contributing to alteration on gene expression, known as expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs), we further sought to identify chemical compounds acting as regulators of alcoholism genes captured by causal SNPs. Chloroprene and valproic acid were identified as the expression regulators for genes C11orf66 and SALL3 which were captured by alcoholism SNPs, respectively.

  15. A Bayesian network model for predicting type 2 diabetes risk based on electronic health records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jiang; Liu, Yan; Zeng, Xu; Zhang, Wu; Mei, Zhen

    2017-07-01

    An extensive, in-depth study of diabetes risk factors (DBRF) is of crucial importance to prevent (or reduce) the chance of suffering from type 2 diabetes (T2D). Accumulation of electronic health records (EHRs) makes it possible to build nonlinear relationships between risk factors and diabetes. However, the current DBRF researches mainly focus on qualitative analyses, and the inconformity of physical examination items makes the risk factors likely to be lost, which drives us to study the novel machine learning approach for risk model development. In this paper, we use Bayesian networks (BNs) to analyze the relationship between physical examination information and T2D, and to quantify the link between risk factors and T2D. Furthermore, with the quantitative analyses of DBRF, we adopt EHR and propose a machine learning approach based on BNs to predict the risk of T2D. The experiments demonstrate that our approach can lead to better predictive performance than the classical risk model.

  16. Graphic Symbol Recognition using Graph Based Signature and Bayesian Network Classifier

    CERN Document Server

    Luqman, Muhammad Muzzamil; Ramel, Jean-Yves

    2010-01-01

    We present a new approach for recognition of complex graphic symbols in technical documents. Graphic symbol recognition is a well known challenge in the field of document image analysis and is at heart of most graphic recognition systems. Our method uses structural approach for symbol representation and statistical classifier for symbol recognition. In our system we represent symbols by their graph based signatures: a graphic symbol is vectorized and is converted to an attributed relational graph, which is used for computing a feature vector for the symbol. This signature corresponds to geometry and topology of the symbol. We learn a Bayesian network to encode joint probability distribution of symbol signatures and use it in a supervised learning scenario for graphic symbol recognition. We have evaluated our method on synthetically deformed and degraded images of pre-segmented 2D architectural and electronic symbols from GREC databases and have obtained encouraging recognition rates.

  17. Development of Bayesian Network Models for Risk-Based Ship Design

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dimitris Konovessis; Wenkui Cai; Dracos Vassalos

    2013-01-01

    In the past fifteen years,the attention of ship safety treatment as an objective rather than a constraint has started to sweep through the whole maritime industry.The risk-based ship design (RBD) methodology,advocating systematic integration of risk assessment within the conventional design process has started to takeoff.Despite this wide recognition and increasing popularity,important factors that could potentially undermine the quality of the results come from both quantitative and qualitative aspects during the risk assessment process.This paper details a promising solution by developing a formalized methodology for risk assessment through effective storing and processing of historical data combined with data generated through first-principle approaches.This method should help to generate appropriate risk models in the selected platform (Bayesian networks) which can be employed for decision making at design stage.

  18. Diagnosis of Subtraction Bugs Using Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jihyun; Corter, James E.

    2011-01-01

    Diagnosis of misconceptions or "bugs" in procedural skills is difficult because of their unstable nature. This study addresses this problem by proposing and evaluating a probability-based approach to the diagnosis of bugs in children's multicolumn subtraction performance using Bayesian networks. This approach assumes a causal network relating…

  19. Peak load forecasting using Bayesian regularization, Resilient and adaptive backpropagation learning based artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saini, Lalit Mohan [Department of Electrical Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Kurukshetra, Haryana 136119 (India)

    2008-07-15

    Up to 7 days ahead electrical peak load forecasting has been done using feed forward neural network based on Steepest descent, Bayesian regularization, Resilient and adaptive backpropagation learning methods, by incorporating the effect of eleven weather parameters and past peak load information. To avoid trapping of network into a state of local minima, the optimization of user-defined parameters viz., learning rate and error goal has been performed. The sliding window concept has been incorporated for selection of training data set. It was then reduced as per relevant selection according to the day type and season for which the forecast is made. To reduce the dimensionality of input matrix, the Principal Component Analysis method of factor extraction or correlation analysis technique has been used and their performance has been compared. The resultant data set was used for training of three-layered neural network. In order to increase the learning speed, the weights and biases were initialized according to Nguyen and Widrow method. To avoid over fitting, early stopping of training was done at the minimum validation error. (author)

  20. Distributed Bayesian Networks for User Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tedesco, Roberto; Dolog, Peter; Nejdl, Wolfgang

    2006-01-01

    by such adaptive applications are often partial fragments of an overall user model. The fragments have then to be collected and merged into a global user profile. In this paper we investigate and present algorithms able to cope with distributed, fragmented user models – based on Bayesian Networks – in the context...... of Web-based eLearning platforms. The scenario we are tackling assumes learners who use several systems over time, which are able to create partial Bayesian Networks for user models based on the local system context. In particular, we focus on how to merge these partial user models. Our merge mechanism...... efficiently combines distributed learner models without the need to exchange internal structure of local Bayesian networks, nor local evidence between the involved platforms....

  1. Resident Space Object Characterization and Behavior Understanding via Machine Learning and Ontology-based Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furfaro, R.; Linares, R.; Gaylor, D.; Jah, M.; Walls, R.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, we present an end-to-end approach that employs machine learning techniques and Ontology-based Bayesian Networks (BN) to characterize the behavior of resident space objects. State-of-the-Art machine learning architectures (e.g. Extreme Learning Machines, Convolutional Deep Networks) are trained on physical models to learn the Resident Space Object (RSO) features in the vectorized energy and momentum states and parameters. The mapping from measurements to vectorized energy and momentum states and parameters enables behavior characterization via clustering in the features space and subsequent RSO classification. Additionally, Space Object Behavioral Ontologies (SOBO) are employed to define and capture the domain knowledge-base (KB) and BNs are constructed from the SOBO in a semi-automatic fashion to execute probabilistic reasoning over conclusions drawn from trained classifiers and/or directly from processed data. Such an approach enables integrating machine learning classifiers and probabilistic reasoning to support higher-level decision making for space domain awareness applications. The innovation here is to use these methods (which have enjoyed great success in other domains) in synergy so that it enables a "from data to discovery" paradigm by facilitating the linkage and fusion of large and disparate sources of information via a Big Data Science and Analytics framework.

  2. Risks Analysis of Logistics Financial Business Based on Evidential Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Yan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Risks in logistics financial business are identified and classified. Making the failure of the business as the root node, a Bayesian network is constructed to measure the risk levels in the business. Three importance indexes are calculated to find the most important risks in the business. And more, considering the epistemic uncertainties in the risks, evidence theory associate with Bayesian network is used as an evidential network in the risk analysis of logistics finance. To find how much uncertainty in root node is produced by each risk, a new index, epistemic importance, is defined. Numerical examples show that the proposed methods could provide a lot of useful information. With the information, effective approaches could be found to control and avoid these sensitive risks, thus keep logistics financial business working more reliable. The proposed method also gives a quantitative measure of risk levels in logistics financial business, which provides guidance for the selection of financing solutions.

  3. Learning about Bayesian networks for forensic interpretation: an example based on the 'the problem of multiple propositions'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biedermann, A; Voisard, R; Taroni, F

    2012-09-01

    Both, Bayesian networks and probabilistic evaluation are gaining more and more widespread use within many professional branches, including forensic science. Notwithstanding, they constitute subtle topics with definitional details that require careful study. While many sophisticated developments of probabilistic approaches to evaluation of forensic findings may readily be found in published literature, there remains a gap with respect to writings that focus on foundational aspects and on how these may be acquired by interested scientists new to these topics. This paper takes this as a starting point to report on the learning about Bayesian networks for likelihood ratio based, probabilistic inference procedures in a class of master students in forensic science. The presentation uses an example that relies on a casework scenario drawn from published literature, involving a questioned signature. A complicating aspect of that case study - proposed to students in a teaching scenario - is due to the need of considering multiple competing propositions, which is an outset that may not readily be approached within a likelihood ratio based framework without drawing attention to some additional technical details. Using generic Bayesian networks fragments from existing literature on the topic, course participants were able to track the probabilistic underpinnings of the proposed scenario correctly both in terms of likelihood ratios and of posterior probabilities. In addition, further study of the example by students allowed them to derive an alternative Bayesian network structure with a computational output that is equivalent to existing probabilistic solutions. This practical experience underlines the potential of Bayesian networks to support and clarify foundational principles of probabilistic procedures for forensic evaluation.

  4. Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner

    2003-01-01

    Object oriented Bayesian networks have proven themselves useful in recent years. The idea of applying an object oriented approach to Bayesian networks has extended their scope to larger domains that can be divided into autonomous but interrelated entities. Object oriented Bayesian networks have b...

  5. Bayesian networks and food security - An introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, A.

    2004-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to Bayesian networks. Networks are defined and put into a Bayesian context. Directed acyclical graphs play a crucial role here. Two simple examples from food security are addressed. Possible uses of Bayesian networks for implementation and further use in decision sup

  6. Learning Bayesian Networks from Correlated Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Harold; Monti, Stefano; Montano, Monty; Steinberg, Martin H.; Perls, Thomas T.; Sebastiani, Paola

    2016-05-01

    Bayesian networks are probabilistic models that represent complex distributions in a modular way and have become very popular in many fields. There are many methods to build Bayesian networks from a random sample of independent and identically distributed observations. However, many observational studies are designed using some form of clustered sampling that introduces correlations between observations within the same cluster and ignoring this correlation typically inflates the rate of false positive associations. We describe a novel parameterization of Bayesian networks that uses random effects to model the correlation within sample units and can be used for structure and parameter learning from correlated data without inflating the Type I error rate. We compare different learning metrics using simulations and illustrate the method in two real examples: an analysis of genetic and non-genetic factors associated with human longevity from a family-based study, and an example of risk factors for complications of sickle cell anemia from a longitudinal study with repeated measures.

  7. Learning Bayesian Networks from Correlated Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Harold; Monti, Stefano; Montano, Monty; Steinberg, Martin H; Perls, Thomas T; Sebastiani, Paola

    2016-05-05

    Bayesian networks are probabilistic models that represent complex distributions in a modular way and have become very popular in many fields. There are many methods to build Bayesian networks from a random sample of independent and identically distributed observations. However, many observational studies are designed using some form of clustered sampling that introduces correlations between observations within the same cluster and ignoring this correlation typically inflates the rate of false positive associations. We describe a novel parameterization of Bayesian networks that uses random effects to model the correlation within sample units and can be used for structure and parameter learning from correlated data without inflating the Type I error rate. We compare different learning metrics using simulations and illustrate the method in two real examples: an analysis of genetic and non-genetic factors associated with human longevity from a family-based study, and an example of risk factors for complications of sickle cell anemia from a longitudinal study with repeated measures.

  8. Bayesian-network-based safety risk assessment for steel construction projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leu, Sou-Sen; Chang, Ching-Miao

    2013-05-01

    There are four primary accident types at steel building construction (SC) projects: falls (tumbles), object falls, object collapse, and electrocution. Several systematic safety risk assessment approaches, such as fault tree analysis (FTA) and failure mode and effect criticality analysis (FMECA), have been used to evaluate safety risks at SC projects. However, these traditional methods ineffectively address dependencies among safety factors at various levels that fail to provide early warnings to prevent occupational accidents. To overcome the limitations of traditional approaches, this study addresses the development of a safety risk-assessment model for SC projects by establishing the Bayesian networks (BN) based on fault tree (FT) transformation. The BN-based safety risk-assessment model was validated against the safety inspection records of six SC building projects and nine projects in which site accidents occurred. The ranks of posterior probabilities from the BN model were highly consistent with the accidents that occurred at each project site. The model accurately provides site safety-management abilities by calculating the probabilities of safety risks and further analyzing the causes of accidents based on their relationships in BNs. In practice, based on the analysis of accident risks and significant safety factors, proper preventive safety management strategies can be established to reduce the occurrence of accidents on SC sites.

  9. Bayesian Network Assessment Method for Civil Aviation Safety Based on Flight Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huawei Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Flight delays and safety are the principal contradictions in the sound development of civil aviation. Flight delays often come up and induce civil aviation safety risk simultaneously. Based on flight delays, the random characteristics of civil aviation safety risk are analyzed. Flight delays have been deemed to a potential safety hazard. The change rules and characteristics of civil aviation safety risk based on flight delays have been analyzed. Bayesian networks (BN have been used to build the aviation operation safety assessment model based on flight delay. The structure and parameters learning of the model have been researched. By using BN model, some airline in China has been selected to assess safety risk of civil aviation. The civil aviation safety risk of BN model has been assessed by GeNIe software. The research results show that flight delay, which increases the safety risk of civil aviation, can be seen as incremental safety risk. The effectiveness and correctness of the model have been tested and verified.

  10. Efficient Algorithms for Bayesian Network Parameter Learning from Incomplete Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-01

    Efficient Algorithms for Bayesian Network Parameter Learning from Incomplete Data Guy Van den Broeck∗ and Karthika Mohan∗ and Arthur Choi and Adnan...We propose a family of efficient algorithms for learning the parameters of a Bayesian network from incomplete data. Our approach is based on recent...algorithms like EM (which require inference). 1 INTRODUCTION When learning the parameters of a Bayesian network from data with missing values, the

  11. Combining Bayesian Networks and Agent Based Modeling to develop a decision-support model in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nong, Bao Anh; Ertsen, Maurits; Schoups, Gerrit

    2016-04-01

    Complexity and uncertainty in natural resources management have been focus themes in recent years. Within these debates, with the aim to define an approach feasible for water management practice, we are developing an integrated conceptual modeling framework for simulating decision-making processes of citizens, in our case in the Day river area, Vietnam. The model combines Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). BNs are able to combine both qualitative data from consultants / experts / stakeholders, and quantitative data from observations on different phenomena or outcomes from other models. Further strengths of BNs are that the relationship between variables in the system is presented in a graphical interface, and that components of uncertainty are explicitly related to their probabilistic dependencies. A disadvantage is that BNs cannot easily identify the feedback of agents in the system once changes appear. Hence, ABM was adopted to represent the reaction among stakeholders under changes. The modeling framework is developed as an attempt to gain better understanding about citizen's behavior and factors influencing their decisions in order to reduce uncertainty in the implementation of water management policy.

  12. Self-Organizing Genetic Algorithm Based Method for Constructing Bayesian Networks from Databases

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑建军; 刘玉树; 陈立潮

    2003-01-01

    The typical characteristic of the topology of Bayesian networks (BNs) is the interdependence among different nodes (variables), which makes it impossible to optimize one variable independently of others, and the learning of BNs structures by general genetic algorithms is liable to converge to local extremum. To resolve efficiently this problem, a self-organizing genetic algorithm (SGA) based method for constructing BNs from databases is presented. This method makes use of a self-organizing mechanism to develop a genetic algorithm that extended the crossover operator from one to two, providing mutual competition between them, even adjusting the numbers of parents in recombination (crossover/recomposition) schemes. With the K2 algorithm, this method also optimizes the genetic operators, and utilizes adequately the domain knowledge. As a result, with this method it is able to find a global optimum of the topology of BNs, avoiding premature convergence to local extremum. The experimental results proved to be and the convergence of the SGA was discussed.

  13. Bayesian Inference Networks and Spreading Activation in Hypertext Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savoy, Jacques

    1992-01-01

    Describes a method based on Bayesian networks for searching hypertext systems. Discussion covers the use of Bayesian networks for structuring index terms and representing user information needs; use of link semantics based on constrained spreading activation to find starting points for browsing; and evaluation of a prototype system. (64…

  14. 3D mapping of buried underworld infrastructure using dynamic Bayesian network based multi-sensory image data fusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutta, Ritaban; Cohn, Anthony G.; Muggleton, Jen M.

    2013-05-01

    The successful operation of buried infrastructure within urban environments is fundamental to the conservation of modern living standards. In this paper a novel multi-sensor image fusion framework has been proposed and investigated using dynamic Bayesian network for automatic detection of buried underworld infrastructure. Experimental multi-sensors images were acquired for a known buried plastic water pipe using Vibro-acoustic sensor based location methods and Ground Penetrating Radar imaging system. Computationally intelligent conventional image processing techniques were used to process three types of sensory images. Independently extracted depth and location information from different images regarding the target pipe were fused together using dynamic Bayesian network to predict the maximum probable location and depth of the pipe. The outcome from this study was very encouraging as it was able to detect the target pipe with high accuracy compared with the currently existing pipe survey map. The approach was also applied successfully to produce a best probable 3D buried asset map.

  15. Open source software implementation of an integrated testing strategy for skin sensitization potency based on a Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirone, Jason R; Smith, Marjolein; Kleinstreuer, Nicole C; Burns, Thomas A; Strickland, Judy; Dancik, Yuri; Morris, Richard; Rinckel, Lori A; Casey, Warren; Jaworska, Joanna S

    2014-01-01

    An open-source implementation of a previously published integrated testing strategy (ITS) for skin sensitization using a Bayesian network has been developed using R, a free and open-source statistical computing language. The ITS model provides probabilistic predictions of skin sensitization potency based on in silico and in vitro information as well as skin penetration characteristics from a published bioavailability model (Kasting et al., 2008). The structure of the Bayesian network was designed to be consistent with the adverse outcome pathway published by the OECD (Jaworska et al., 2011, 2013). In this paper, the previously published data set (Jaworska et al., 2013) is improved by two data corrections and a modified application of the Kasting model. The new data set implemented in the original commercial software package and the new R version produced consistent results. The data and a fully documented version of the code are publicly available (http://ntp.niehs.nih.gov/go/its).

  16. Structure learning for Bayesian networks as models of biological networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larjo, Antti; Shmulevich, Ilya; Lähdesmäki, Harri

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian networks are probabilistic graphical models suitable for modeling several kinds of biological systems. In many cases, the structure of a Bayesian network represents causal molecular mechanisms or statistical associations of the underlying system. Bayesian networks have been applied, for example, for inferring the structure of many biological networks from experimental data. We present some recent progress in learning the structure of static and dynamic Bayesian networks from data.

  17. Implementing Relevance Feedback in the Bayesian Network Retrieval Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Campos, Luis M.; Fernandez-Luna, Juan M.; Huete, Juan F.

    2003-01-01

    Discussion of relevance feedback in information retrieval focuses on a proposal for the Bayesian Network Retrieval Model. Bases the proposal on the propagation of partial evidences in the Bayesian network, representing new information obtained from the user's relevance judgments to compute the posterior relevance probabilities of the documents…

  18. Non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian networks for continuous data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    2011-01-01

    Classical dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are based on the homogeneous Markov assumption and cannot deal with non-homogeneous temporal processes. Various approaches to relax the homogeneity assumption have recently been proposed. The present paper presents a combination of a Bayesian network with c

  19. Learning Bayesian Networks from Data by Particle Swarm Optimization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Learning Bayesian network is an NP-hard problem. When the number of variables is large, the process of searching optimal network structure could be very time consuming and tends to return a structure which is local optimal. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) was introduced to the problem of learning Bayesian networks and a novel structure learning algorithm using PSO was proposed. To search in directed acyclic graphs spaces efficiently, a discrete PSO algorithm especially for structure learning was proposed based on the characteristics of Bayesian networks. The results of experiments show that our PSO based algorithm is fast for convergence and can obtain better structures compared with genetic algorithm based algorithms.

  20. A Gaussian Mixed Model for Learning Discrete Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balov, Nikolay

    2011-02-01

    In this paper we address the problem of learning discrete Bayesian networks from noisy data. Considered is a graphical model based on mixture of Gaussian distributions with categorical mixing structure coming from a discrete Bayesian network. The network learning is formulated as a Maximum Likelihood estimation problem and performed by employing an EM algorithm. The proposed approach is relevant to a variety of statistical problems for which Bayesian network models are suitable - from simple regression analysis to learning gene/protein regulatory networks from microarray data.

  1. Anomaly Detection and Attribution Using Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    UNCLASSIFIED Anomaly Detection and Attribution Using Bayesian Networks Andrew Kirk, Jonathan Legg and Edwin El-Mahassni National Security and...detection in Bayesian networks , en- abling both the detection and explanation of anomalous cases in a dataset. By exploiting the structure of a... Bayesian network , our algorithm is able to efficiently search for local maxima of data conflict between closely related vari- ables. Benchmark tests using

  2. Bayesian networks precipitation model based on hidden Markov analysis and its application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Surface precipitation estimation is very important in hydrologic forecast. To account for the influence of the neighbors on the precipitation of an arbitrary grid in the network, Bayesian networks and Markov random field were adopted to estimate surface precipitation. Spherical coordinates and the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm were used for region interpolation, and for estimation of the precipitation of arbitrary point in the region. Surface precipitation estimation of seven precipitation stations in Qinghai Lake region was performed. By comparing with other surface precipitation methods such as Thiessen polygon method, distance weighted mean method and arithmetic mean method, it is shown that the proposed method can judge the relationship of precipitation among different points in the area under complicated circumstances and the simulation results are more accurate and rational.

  3. Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2013-01-01

    Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...... for complex networks can be derived and point out relevant literature....

  4. A bayesian belief network for reliability assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Helminen, Atte

    2001-02-15

    The research programme at the Halden Project on software assessment is argumented through a joint project with VVT Automation. The objective of this co-operative project is to combine previous presented Bayesian Belief Networks for a software safety standard, with BBNs on the reliability estimation of software based digital systems. The results on applying BBN methodology with a software safety standard is based upon previous research by the Halden Project, while the results on the reliability estimation is based on a Master's Thesis by Helminen. The report should be considered as a progress report in the more long-term activity on the use of BBNs as support for safety assessment of programmable systems. In this report it is discussed how the two approaches can be merged together into one Bayesian Network, and the problems with merging are pinpointed. The report also presents and discusses the approaches applied by the Halden Project and VTT, including the differences in the expert judgement of the parameters used in the Bayesian Network. Finally, the report gives some experimental results based on observations from applying the method for an evaluation of a real, safety related programmable system that has been developed according to the avionic standard DO-178B. This demonstrates how hard and soft evidences can be combined for a reliability assessment. The use of Bayesian Networks provides a framework, combining consistent application of probability calculus with the ability to model complex structures, as e.g. standards, as a simple understandable network, where all possible evidence can be introduced to the reliability estimation in a compatible way. (Author)

  5. Learning dynamic Bayesian networks with mixed variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard

    This paper considers dynamic Bayesian networks for discrete and continuous variables. We only treat the case, where the distribution of the variables is conditional Gaussian. We show how to learn the parameters and structure of a dynamic Bayesian network and also how the Markov order can be learn....... An automated procedure for specifying prior distributions for the parameters in a dynamic Bayesian network is presented. It is a simple extension of the procedure for the ordinary Bayesian networks. Finally the W¨olfer?s sunspot numbers are analyzed....

  6. Application of Bayesian Network Learning Methods to Land Resource Evaluation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Jiejun; HE Xiaorong; WAN Youchuan

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian network has a powerful ability for reasoning and semantic representation, which combined with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, with prior knowledge and observed data, and provides an effective way to deal with prediction, classification and clustering. Firstly, this paper presented an overview of Bayesian network and its characteristics, and discussed how to learn a Bayesian network structure from given data, and then constructed a Bayesian network model for land resource evaluation with expert knowledge and the dataset. The experimental results based on the test dataset are that evaluation accuracy is 87.5%, and Kappa index is 0.826. All these prove the method is feasible and efficient, and indicate that Bayesian network is a promising approach for land resource evaluation.

  7. Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Kristin

    2016-04-01

    and incomplete observations. Further studies rise the challenge of relying on very small data sets. Since parameter estimates for complex models based on few observations are unreliable, it is necessary to focus on simplified, yet still meaningful models. A so called Markov Blanket approach is developed to identify the most relevant model components and to construct a simple Bayesian network based on those findings. Since the proceeding is completely data driven, it can easily be transferred to various applications in natural hazard domains. This study is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) within the research training programme GRK 2043/1 "NatRiskChange - Natural hazards and risks in a changing world" at Potsdam University.

  8. Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toroody, Ahmad Bahoo; Abaiee, Mohammad Mahdi; Gholamnia, Reza; Ketabdari, Mohammad Javad

    2016-09-01

    Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.

  9. Epistemic-Based Investigation of the Probability of Hazard Scenarios Using Bayesian Network for the Lifting Operation of Floating Objects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ahmad Bahoo Toroody; Mohammad Mahdi Abaiee; Reza Gholamnia; Mohammad Javad Ketabdari

    2016-01-01

    Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types:the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.

  10. Semantic-Level Fusion of Heterogenous Sensor Network and Other Sources Based on Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-14

    approach has been proposed for fusing soft and hard data based on the conditional approach which can model and account for dissimilar scopes and...concepts in WordNet [16], which is a lexical database of English words organized into sets of synonyms (synsets). Synsets are interlinked by means...of conceptual-semantic and lexical relations. The similarity value between two words 1w and 2w using Lin measure is given by: 01 2 1 2

  11. Application of Bayesian Neural Networks to Energy Reconstruction in EAS Experiments for ground-based TeV Astrophysics

    CERN Document Server

    Bai, Ying; Lan, JieQin; Gao, WeiWei

    2016-01-01

    A toy detector array has been designed to simulate the detection of cosmic rays in Extended Air Shower(EAS) Experiments for ground-based TeV Astrophysics. The primary energies of protons from the Monte-Carlo simulation have been reconstructed by the algorithm of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and a standard method like the LHAASO experiment\\cite{lhaaso-ma}, respectively. The result of the energy reconstruction using BNNs has been compared with the one using the standard method. Compared to the standard method, the energy resolutions are significantly improved using BNNs. And the improvement is more obvious for the high energy protons than the low energy ones.

  12. Bayesian Network for multiple hypthesis tracking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.P. Zajdel; B.J.A. Kröse

    2002-01-01

    For a flexible camera-to-camera tracking of multiple objects we model the objects behavior with a Bayesian network and combine it with the multiple hypohesis framework that associates observations with objects. Bayesian networks offer a possibility to factor complex, joint distributions into a produ

  13. Construction of monitoring model and algorithm design on passenger security during shipping based on improved Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiali; Zhang, Qingnian; Ji, Wenfeng

    2014-01-01

    A large number of data is needed by the computation of the objective Bayesian network, but the data is hard to get in actual computation. The calculation method of Bayesian network was improved in this paper, and the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was obtained. Then, the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was used to reason Bayesian network model when the data is limited. The security of passengers during shipping is affected by various factors, and it is hard to predict and control. The index system that has the impact on the passenger safety during shipping was established on basis of the multifield coupling theory in this paper. Meanwhile, the fuzzy-precise Bayesian network was applied to monitor the security of passengers in the shipping process. The model was applied to monitor the passenger safety during shipping of a shipping company in Hainan, and the effectiveness of this model was examined. This research work provides guidance for guaranteeing security of passengers during shipping.

  14. A Novel Prediction Algorithm of DR Position Error Based on Bayesian Regularization Back-propagation Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Honglian

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available It is difficult to accurately reckon vehicle position for vehicle navigation system (VNS during GPS outages, a novel prediction algorithm of dead reckon (DR position error is put forward, which based on Bayesian regularization back-propagation (BRBP neural network. DR, GPS position data are first de-noised and compared at different stationary wavelet transformation (SWT decomposition level, and DR position error data are acquired after the SWT coefficients differences are reconstructed. A neural network to mimic position error property is trained with back-propagation algorithm, and the algorithm is improved for improving its generalization by Bayesian regularization theory. During GPS outages, the established prediction algorithm predictes DR position errors, and provides precise position for VNS through DR position error data updating DR position data. The simulation results show the positioning precision of the BRBP algorithm is best among the presented prediction algorithms such as simple DR and adaptive linear network, and a precise mathematical model of navigation sensors isn’t established.

  15. BNFinder2: Faster Bayesian network learning and Bayesian classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dojer, Norbert; Bednarz, Pawel; Podsiadlo, Agnieszka; Wilczynski, Bartek

    2013-08-15

    Bayesian Networks (BNs) are versatile probabilistic models applicable to many different biological phenomena. In biological applications the structure of the network is usually unknown and needs to be inferred from experimental data. BNFinder is a fast software implementation of an exact algorithm for finding the optimal structure of the network given a number of experimental observations. Its second version, presented in this article, represents a major improvement over the previous version. The improvements include (i) a parallelized learning algorithm leading to an order of magnitude speed-ups in BN structure learning time; (ii) inclusion of an additional scoring function based on mutual information criteria; (iii) possibility of choosing the resulting network specificity based on statistical criteria and (iv) a new module for classification by BNs, including cross-validation scheme and classifier quality measurements with receiver operator characteristic scores. BNFinder2 is implemented in python and freely available under the GNU general public license at the project Web site https://launchpad.net/bnfinder, together with a user's manual, introductory tutorial and supplementary methods.

  16. The effect of road network patterns on pedestrian safety: A zone-based Bayesian spatial modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Qiang; Xu, Pengpeng; Pei, Xin; Wong, S C; Yao, Danya

    2017-02-01

    Pedestrian safety is increasingly recognized as a major public health concern. Extensive safety studies have been conducted to examine the influence of multiple variables on the occurrence of pedestrian-vehicle crashes. However, the explicit relationship between pedestrian safety and road network characteristics remains unknown. This study particularly focused on the role of different road network patterns on the occurrence of crashes involving pedestrians. A global integration index via space syntax was introduced to quantify the topological structures of road networks. The Bayesian Poisson-lognormal (PLN) models with conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior were then developed via three different proximity structures: contiguity, geometry-centroid distance, and road network connectivity. The models were also compared with the PLN counterpart without spatial correlation effects. The analysis was based on a comprehensive crash dataset from 131 selected traffic analysis zones in Hong Kong. The results indicated that higher global integration was associated with more pedestrian-vehicle crashes; the irregular pattern network was proved to be safest in terms of pedestrian crash occurrences, whereas the grid pattern was the least safe; the CAR model with a neighborhood structure based on road network connectivity was found to outperform in model goodness-of-fit, implying the importance of accurately accounting for spatial correlation when modeling spatially aggregated crash data.

  17. A Bayesian belief network model for community-based coastal resource management in the Kei Islands, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eriko Hoshino

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the specific relationships between ecological and socioeconomic conditions and marine tenure is likely to contribute to successful functioning of self-governance institutions for common-pool resources. Complex interrelationships of factors influencing fishing activities of coastal communities and implementation of customary marine tenure over their waters can be represented in a Bayesian belief network model. We developed a Bayesian belief network model that includes the links between factors for fishing communities in the Kei Islands in Indonesia, based on indepth local surveys. Our results showed that the cumulative impacts of multiple factors on key social, economic, and environmental outcomes can be much larger than the impact from a single source, which implies that management or policy intervention could be more effective when addressing multiple factors simultaneously. The local community's perception of fish stock abundance trends was the single most important factor influencing social, economic, and environmental outcomes of their community-based management system. The frequency of which outsiders were sighted in territorial waters was strongly (negatively linked to weak or strong implementation of a customary tenure (Sasi and the occurrence of intervillage and intravillage conflict. Ecological variables also drive these conflicts, which illustrates the close connection between ecological and social outcomes, and the importance of considering social-ecological systems as a whole.

  18. Bayesian networks in educational assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Almond, Russell G; Steinberg, Linda S; Yan, Duanli; Williamson, David M

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian inference networks, a synthesis of statistics and expert systems, have advanced reasoning under uncertainty in medicine, business, and social sciences. This innovative volume is the first comprehensive treatment exploring how they can be applied to design and analyze innovative educational assessments. Part I develops Bayes nets’ foundations in assessment, statistics, and graph theory, and works through the real-time updating algorithm. Part II addresses parametric forms for use with assessment, model-checking techniques, and estimation with the EM algorithm and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A unique feature is the volume’s grounding in Evidence-Centered Design (ECD) framework for assessment design. This “design forward” approach enables designers to take full advantage of Bayes nets’ modularity and ability to model complex evidentiary relationships that arise from performance in interactive, technology-rich assessments such as simulations. Part III describes ECD, situates Bayes nets as ...

  19. Bayesian Inference in Queueing Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Sutton, Charles

    2010-01-01

    Modern Web services, such as those at Google, Yahoo!, and Amazon, handle billions of requests per day on clusters of thousands of computers. Because these services operate under strict performance requirements, a statistical understanding of their performance is of great practical interest. Such services are modeled by networks of queues, where one queue models each of the individual computers in the system. A key challenge is that the data is incomplete, because recording detailed information about every request to a heavily used system can require unacceptable overhead. In this paper we develop a Bayesian perspective on queueing models in which the arrival and departure times that are not observed are treated as latent variables. Underlying this viewpoint is the observation that a queueing model defines a deterministic transformation between the data and a set of independent variables called the service times. With this viewpoint in hand, we sample from the posterior distribution over missing data and model...

  20. Bayesian network approach to spatial data mining: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jiejun; Wan, Youchuan

    2006-10-01

    Spatial data mining is a process of discovering interesting, novel, and potentially useful information or knowledge hidden in spatial data sets. It involves different techniques and different methods from various areas of research. A Bayesian network is a graphical model that encodes causal probabilistic relationships among variables of interest, which has a powerful ability for representing and reasoning and provides an effective way to spatial data mining. In this paper we give an introduction to Bayesian networks, and discuss using Bayesian networks for spatial data mining. We propose a framework of spatial data mining based on Bayesian networks. Then we show a case study and use the experimental results to validate the practical viability of the proposed approach to spatial data mining. Finally, the paper gives a summary and some remarks.

  1. 基于贝叶斯网络的试卷分析*%Paper based on Bayesian Network Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王娜

    2014-01-01

    简要介绍了基于贝叶斯网络的试卷分析试验,试验主要用到的工具是基于MATLAB语言编写的BNT软件包。通过试验研究,分析了平时的出勤率、作业提交率等五方面内容对学生成绩的影响。%This paper introduces the papers based on Bayesian network analysis test; the test is based on the main tools used MATLAB language BNT package. Through experimental research, analyzes the impact of the five aspects of the usual attendance, job submission rate on student achievement.

  2. Analysis of prognostic factors for survival after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma based on a bayesian network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-Qiang Cai

    Full Text Available The prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC after hepatectomy involves many factors. Previous studies have evaluated the separate influences of single factors; few have considered the combined influence of various factors. This paper combines the Bayesian network (BN with importance measures to identify key factors that have significant effects on survival time.A dataset of 299 patients with HCC after hepatectomy was studied to establish a BN using a tree-augmented naïve Bayes algorithm that could mine relationships between factors. The composite importance measure was applied to rank the impact of factors on survival time.124 patients (>10 months and 77 patients (≤10 months were correctly classified. The accuracy of BN model was 67.2%. For patients with long survival time (>10 months, the true-positive rate of the model was 83.22% and the false-positive rate was 48.67%. According to the model, the preoperative alpha fetoprotein (AFP level and postoperative performance of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE were independent factors for survival of HCC patients. The grade of preoperative liver function reflected the tendency for postoperative complications. Intraoperative blood loss, tumor size, portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT, time of clamping the porta hepatis, tumor number, operative method, and metastasis were dependent variables in survival time prediction. PVTT was considered the most significant for the prognosis of survival time.Using the BN and importance measures, PVTT was identified as the most significant predictor of survival time for patients with HCC after hepatectomy.

  3. Aerial Image Texture Classification Based on u-level Bayesian Network%多级Bayesian Network的影像纹理分类方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    虞欣; 郑肇葆; 叶志伟; 李林宜

    2008-01-01

    在影像分类的实际应用中,所提取的特征(或波段)间往往存在较大的相关性.为了把Naive Bayes Classifters (NBC)模型更好地应用于分类中,本文在研究NBC模型的基础上,从特征空间划分的角度,将它进一步推广为多级Bayesian Network.实验结果分析表明:由于多级Bayesian Network模型综合考虑了特征之间的条件依赖关系,它在分类精度方面一般高于原始的NBC和最大似然法.然而,对于不同的n值,其分类结果也有所不同.

  4. A Bayesian Approach to Network Modularity

    CERN Document Server

    Hofman, Jake M

    2007-01-01

    We present an efficient, principled, and interpretable technique for inferring module assignments and identifying the optimal number of modules in a given network. We show how several existing methods for finding modules can be described as variant, special, or limiting cases of our work, and how related methods for complexity control -- identification of the true number of modules -- are outperformed. Our approach is based on Bayesian methods for model selection which have been used with success for almost a century, implemented using a variational technique developed only in the past decade. We apply the technique to synthetic and real networks, including networks of up to $10^4$ nodes, and outline how the method naturally allows model selection among generative models.

  5. Fuzzy Functional Dependencies and Bayesian Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU WeiYi(刘惟一); SONG Ning(宋宁)

    2003-01-01

    Bayesian networks have become a popular technique for representing and reasoning with probabilistic information. The fuzzy functional dependency is an important kind of data dependencies in relational databases with fuzzy values. The purpose of this paper is to set up a connection between these data dependencies and Bayesian networks. The connection is done through a set of methods that enable people to obtain the most information of independent conditions from fuzzy functional dependencies.

  6. A Measure of Systems Engineering Effectiveness in Government Acquisition of Complex Information Systems: A Bayesian Belief Network-Based Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doskey, Steven Craig

    2014-01-01

    This research presents an innovative means of gauging Systems Engineering effectiveness through a Systems Engineering Relative Effectiveness Index (SE REI) model. The SE REI model uses a Bayesian Belief Network to map causal relationships in government acquisitions of Complex Information Systems (CIS), enabling practitioners to identify and…

  7. Design and Evaluation of the User-Adapted Program Scheduling system based on Bayesian Network and Constraint Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwasaki, Hirotoshi; Sega, Shinichiro; Hiraishi, Hironori; Mizoguchi, Fumio

    In recent years, lots of music content can be stored in mobile computing devices, such as a portable digital music player and a car navigation system. Moreover, various information content like news or traffic information can be acquired always anywhere by a cellular communication and a wireless LAN. However, usability issues arise from the simple interfaces of mobile computing devices. Moreover, retrieving and selecting such content poses safety issues, especially while driving. Thus, it is important for the mobile system to recommend content automatically adapted to user's preference and situation. In this paper, we present the user-adapted program scheduling that generates sequences of content (Program) suiting user's preference and situation based on the Bayesian network and the Constraint Satisfaction Problem (CSP) technique. We also describe the design and evaluation of its realization system, the Personal Program Producer (P3). First, preference such as a genre ratio of content in a program is learned as a Bayesian network model using simple operations such as a skip behavior. A model including each content tends to become large-scale. In order to make it small, we present the model separation method that carries out losslessly compression of the model. Using the model, probabilistic distributions of preference to generate constraints are inferred. Finally satisfying the constraints, a program is produced. This kind of CSP has an issue of which the number of variables is not fixedness. In order to make it variable, we propose a method using metavariables. To evaluate the above methods, we applied them to P3 on a car navigation system. User evaluations helped us clarify that the P3 can produce the program that a user prefers and adapt it to the user.

  8. Intelligent Sensor Based Bayesian Neural Network for Combined Parameters and States Estimation of a Brushed DC Motor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hacene MELLAH

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to develop an Artificial Neural Network (ANN model to estimate simultaneously, parameters and state of a brushed DC machine. The proposed ANN estimator is novel in the sense that his estimates simultaneously temperature, speed and rotor resistance based only on the measurement of the voltage and current inputs. Many types of ANN estimators have been designed by a lot of researchers during the last two decades. Each type is designed for a specific application. The thermal behavior of the motor is very slow, which leads to large amounts of data sets. The standard ANN use often Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP with Levenberg-Marquardt Backpropagation (LMBP, among the limits of LMBP in the case of large number of data, so the use of MLP based on LMBP is no longer valid in our case. As solution, we propose the use of Cascade-Forward Neural Network (CFNN based Bayesian Regulation backpropagation (BRBP. To test our estimator robustness a random white-Gaussian noise has been added to the sets. The proposed estimator is in our viewpoint accurate and robust.

  9. Bayesian networks for maritime traffic accident prevention: benefits and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänninen, Maria

    2014-12-01

    Bayesian networks are quantitative modeling tools whose applications to the maritime traffic safety context are becoming more popular. This paper discusses the utilization of Bayesian networks in maritime safety modeling. Based on literature and the author's own experiences, the paper studies what Bayesian networks can offer to maritime accident prevention and safety modeling and discusses a few challenges in their application to this context. It is argued that the capability of representing rather complex, not necessarily causal but uncertain relationships makes Bayesian networks an attractive modeling tool for the maritime safety and accidents. Furthermore, as the maritime accident and safety data is still rather scarce and has some quality problems, the possibility to combine data with expert knowledge and the easy way of updating the model after acquiring more evidence further enhance their feasibility. However, eliciting the probabilities from the maritime experts might be challenging and the model validation can be tricky. It is concluded that with the utilization of several data sources, Bayesian updating, dynamic modeling, and hidden nodes for latent variables, Bayesian networks are rather well-suited tools for the maritime safety management and decision-making.

  10. Control of Complex Systems Using Bayesian Networks and Genetic Algorithm

    CERN Document Server

    Marwala, Tshilidzi

    2007-01-01

    A method based on Bayesian neural networks and genetic algorithm is proposed to control the fermentation process. The relationship between input and output variables is modelled using Bayesian neural network that is trained using hybrid Monte Carlo method. A feedback loop based on genetic algorithm is used to change input variables so that the output variables are as close to the desired target as possible without the loss of confidence level on the prediction that the neural network gives. The proposed procedure is found to reduce the distance between the desired target and measured outputs significantly.

  11. Impact assessment of extreme storm events using a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    den Heijer, C.(Kees); Knipping, Dirk T.J.A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; van Thiel de Vries, Jaap S. M.; Baart, Fedor; van Gelder, Pieter H. A. J. M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes an investigation on the usefulness of Bayesian Networks in the safety assessment of dune coasts. A network has been created that predicts the erosion volume based on hydraulic boundary conditions and a number of cross-shore profile indicators. Field measurement data along a large part of the Dutch coast has been used to train the network. Corresponding storm impact on the dunes was calculated with an empirical dune erosion model named duros+. Comparison between the Bayesian Network predictions and the original duros+ results, here considered as observations, results in a skill up to 0.88, provided that the training data covers the range of predictions. Hence, the predictions from a deterministic model (duros+) can be captured in a probabilistic model (Bayesian Network) such that both the process knowledge and uncertainties can be included in impact and vulnerability assessments.

  12. A mixture copula Bayesian network model for multimodal genomic data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingyang Zhang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Gaussian Bayesian networks have become a widely used framework to estimate directed associations between joint Gaussian variables, where the network structure encodes the decomposition of multivariate normal density into local terms. However, the resulting estimates can be inaccurate when the normality assumption is moderately or severely violated, making it unsuitable for dealing with recent genomic data such as the Cancer Genome Atlas data. In the present paper, we propose a mixture copula Bayesian network model which provides great flexibility in modeling non-Gaussian and multimodal data for causal inference. The parameters in mixture copula functions can be efficiently estimated by a routine expectation–maximization algorithm. A heuristic search algorithm based on Bayesian information criterion is developed to estimate the network structure, and prediction can be further improved by the best-scoring network out of multiple predictions from random initial values. Our method outperforms Gaussian Bayesian networks and regular copula Bayesian networks in terms of modeling flexibility and prediction accuracy, as demonstrated using a cell signaling data set. We apply the proposed methods to the Cancer Genome Atlas data to study the genetic and epigenetic pathways that underlie serous ovarian cancer.

  13. Impact assessment of extreme storm events using a Bayesian network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Den Heijer, C.; Knipping, D.T.J.A.; Plant, N.G.; Van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M.; Baart, F.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes an investigation on the usefulness of Bayesian Networks in the safety assessment of dune coasts. A network has been created that predicts the erosion volume based on hydraulic boundary conditions and a number of cross-shore profile indicators. Field measurement data along a larg

  14. Neural network classification - A Bayesian interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Eric A.

    1990-01-01

    The relationship between minimizing a mean squared error and finding the optimal Bayesian classifier is reviewed. This provides a theoretical interpretation for the process by which neural networks are used in classification. A number of confidence measures are proposed to evaluate the performance of the neural network classifier within a statistical framework.

  15. Automatic Thesaurus Construction Using Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Young C.; Choi, Key-Sun

    1996-01-01

    Discusses automatic thesaurus construction and characterizes the statistical behavior of terms by using an inference network. Highlights include low-frequency terms and data sparseness, Bayesian networks, collocation maps and term similarity, constructing a thesaurus from a collocation map, and experiments with test collections. (Author/LRW)

  16. Bayesian Networks: Aspects of Approximate Inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolt, J.H.

    2008-01-01

    A Bayesian network can be used to model consisely the probabilistic knowledge with respect to a given problem domain. Such a network consists of an acyclic directed graph in which the nodes represent stochastic variables, supplemented with probabilities indicating the strength of the influences betw

  17. Communication cost in Distributed Bayesian Belief Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gosliga, S.P. van; Maris, M.G.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, two different methods for information fusionare compared with respect to communication cost. These are the lambda-pi and the junction tree approach as the probability computing methods in Bayesian networks. The analysis is done within the scope of large distributed networks of computi

  18. 基于贝叶斯网络的组织创新影响机制研究%The mechanism influencing organizational innovation based on Bayesian network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    蒋天颖

    2011-01-01

    The variables belonging with the organizational innovation influencing mechanism are uncertainty and dynamic, taking Bayesian network as an analytic tool is suitable. An organizational innovation influencing mechanism model is constructed based on Bayesian network according to the basic theory of Bayesian network, and the computing problem about how to simplify the complex Bayesian network is explored. The empirical study shows that the model overcomes the demerits of the original analytic method which is only suitable for lineafity and static analysis, and reflects the dynamic relationships of different variables in organizational innovation influencing mechanism.%组织创新影响机制中各变量具有不确定性与动态性等特点,可以尝试进行贝叶斯网络分析.根据贝叶斯网络的基本原理,构建了基于贝叶斯网络的组织创新影响机制模型,并对复杂贝叶斯网络计算问题的简化问题进行了探讨.实例应用表明,该方法克服了其他传统分析方法局限于线性、静态分析的缺点,较为准确地反映了组织创新影响机制各变量间的动态关系.

  19. Fault Diagnosis of an Intelligent Building Facility Using Bayesian Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Qi-ding; XU Jin-yu; BAI Er-lei

    2008-01-01

    There is great significance to diagnose the fault of an intelligent building facility for fault controlling, repairing, eliminating and preventing. As an example, this paper established a Bayesian networks model for fault diagnosis of the refrigeration system of an intelligent building facility, gave the networks parameters, and analyzed the reasoning mechanism. Based on the model, some data was analyzed and diagnosed by adopting Bayesian networks reasoning platform GeNIe. The result shows that the diagnosis effect is more comprehensive and reasonable than the other method.

  20. Fluoropyrimidine-Based Chemotherapy as First-Line Treatment for Advanced Gastric Cancer: a Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Lucheng; Liu, Jihong; Ma, Shenglin

    2016-10-01

    Fluoropyrimidine-based regimens are the most common treatments in advanced gastric cancer. We used a Bayesian network meta-analysis to identify the optimal fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy by comparing their relative efficacy and safety. We systematically searched databases and extracted data from randomized controlled trials, which compared fluoropyrimidine-based regimens as first-line treatment in AGC. The main outcomes were overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), overall response rate (ORR), and grade 3 or 4 adverse events (AEs). A total of 12 RCTs of 4026 patients were included in our network meta-analysis. Pooled analysis showed S-1 and capecitabine had a significant OS benefit over 5-Fu, with hazard ratios of 0.90 (95%CI = 0.81-0.99) and 0.88 (95%CI = 0.80-0.96), respectively. The result also exhibited a trend that S-1 and capecitabine prolonged PFS in contrast to 5-Fu, with hazard ratios of 0.84 (95%CI = 0.66-1.02) and 0.84 (95%CI = 0.65-1.03), respectively. Additionally, all the three fluoropyrimidine-based regimens were similar in terms of ORR and grade 3 or 4 AEs. Compared with regimens based on 5-Fu, regimens based on S-1 or capecitabine demonstrated a significant OS improvement without compromise of AEs as first-line treatment in AGC in Asian population. S-1 and capecitabine can be interchangeable according their different emphasis on AEs.

  1. A Bayesian Network Based Global Sensitivity Analysis Method for Identifying Dominant Processes in a Multi-physics Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, H.; Chen, X.; Ye, M.; Song, X.; Zachara, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Sensitivity analysis has been an important tool in groundwater modeling to identify the influential parameters. Among various sensitivity analysis methods, the variance-based global sensitivity analysis has gained popularity for its model independence characteristic and capability of providing accurate sensitivity measurements. However, the conventional variance-based method only considers uncertainty contribution of single model parameters. In this research, we extended the variance-based method to consider more uncertainty sources and developed a new framework to allow flexible combinations of different uncertainty components. We decompose the uncertainty sources into a hierarchical three-layer structure: scenario, model and parametric. Furthermore, each layer of uncertainty source is capable of containing multiple components. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis framework was then constructed following this three-layer structure using Bayesian network. Different uncertainty components are represented as uncertain nodes in this network. Through the framework, variance-based sensitivity analysis can be implemented with great flexibility of using different grouping strategies for uncertainty components. The variance-based sensitivity analysis thus is improved to be able to investigate the importance of an extended range of uncertainty sources: scenario, model, and other different combinations of uncertainty components which can represent certain key model system processes (e.g., groundwater recharge process, flow reactive transport process). For test and demonstration purposes, the developed methodology was implemented into a test case of real-world groundwater reactive transport modeling with various uncertainty sources. The results demonstrate that the new sensitivity analysis method is able to estimate accurate importance measurements for any uncertainty sources which were formed by different combinations of uncertainty components. The new methodology can

  2. Bayesian networks in neuroscience: a survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian networks are a type of probabilistic graphical models lie at the intersection between statistics and machine learning. They have been shown to be powerful tools to encode dependence relationships among the variables of a domain under uncertainty. Thanks to their generality, Bayesian networks can accommodate continuous and discrete variables, as well as temporal processes. In this paper we review Bayesian networks and how they can be learned automatically from data by means of structure learning algorithms. Also, we examine how a user can take advantage of these networks for reasoning by exact or approximate inference algorithms that propagate the given evidence through the graphical structure. Despite their applicability in many fields, they have been little used in neuroscience, where they have focused on specific problems, like functional connectivity analysis from neuroimaging data. Here we survey key research in neuroscience where Bayesian networks have been used with different aims: discover associations between variables, perform probabilistic reasoning over the model, and classify new observations with and without supervision. The networks are learned from data of any kind-morphological, electrophysiological, -omics and neuroimaging-, thereby broadening the scope-molecular, cellular, structural, functional, cognitive and medical- of the brain aspects to be studied.

  3. Audio-Visual Tibetan Speech Recognition Based on a Deep Dynamic Bayesian Network for Natural Human Robot Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yue Zhao

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Audio‐visual speech recognition is a natural and robust approach to improving human-robot interaction in noisy environments. Although multi‐stream Dynamic Bayesian Network and coupled HMM are widely used for audio‐visual speech recognition, they fail to learn the shared features between modalities and ignore the dependency of features among the frames within each discrete state. In this paper, we propose a Deep Dynamic Bayesian Network (DDBN to perform unsupervised extraction of spatial‐temporal multimodal features from Tibetan audio‐visual speech data and build an accurate audio‐visual speech recognition model under a no frame‐independency assumption. The experiment results on Tibetan speech data from some real‐world environments showed the proposed DDBN outperforms the state‐of‐art methods in word recognition accuracy.

  4. A functional-dependencies-based Bayesian networks learning method and its application in a mobile commerce system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Stephen Shaoyi; Wang, Huai Qing; Li, Qiu Dan; Liu, Wei Yi

    2006-06-01

    This paper presents a new method for learning Bayesian networks from functional dependencies (FD) and third normal form (3NF) tables in relational databases. The method sets up a linkage between the theory of relational databases and probabilistic reasoning models, which is interesting and useful especially when data are incomplete and inaccurate. The effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method is demonstrated by its implementation in a mobile commerce system.

  5. Learning Bayesian network structure with immune algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhiqiang Cai; Shubin Si; Shudong Sun; Hongyan Dui

    2015-01-01

    Finding out reasonable structures from bulky data is one of the difficulties in modeling of Bayesian network (BN), which is also necessary in promoting the application of BN. This pa-per proposes an immune algorithm based method (BN-IA) for the learning of the BN structure with the idea of vaccination. Further-more, the methods on how to extract the effective vaccines from local optimal structure and root nodes are also described in details. Final y, the simulation studies are implemented with the helicopter convertor BN model and the car start BN model. The comparison results show that the proposed vaccines and the BN-IA can learn the BN structure effectively and efficiently.

  6. A bayesian inference-based detection mechanism to defend medical smartphone networks against insider attacks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meng, Weizhi; Li, Wenjuan; Xiang, Yang

    2017-01-01

    With the increasing digitization of the healthcare industry, a wide range of devices (including traditionally non-networked medical devices) are Internet- and inter-connected. Mobile devices (e.g. smartphones) are one common device used in the healthcare industry to improve the quality of service...... and experience for both patients and healthcare workers, and the underlying network architecture to support such devices is also referred to as medical smartphone networks (MSNs). MSNs, similar to other networks, are subject to a wide range of attacks (e.g. leakage of sensitive patient information by a malicious...

  7. From arguments to constraints on a Bayesian network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bex, F.J.; Renooij, S.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a way to derive constraints for a Bayesian Network from structured arguments. Argumentation and Bayesian networks can both be considered decision support techniques, but are typically used by experts with different backgrounds. Bayesian network experts have the mathematical

  8. Predicting a Containership's Arrival Punctuality in Liner Operations by Using a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBBN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Haqimin Mohd Salleh

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the biggest concerns in liner operations is punctuality of containerships. Managing the time factor has become a crucial issue in today's liner shipping operations. A statistic in 2015 showed that the overall punctuality for containerships only reached an on-time performance of 73%. However, vessel punctuality is affected by many factors such as the port and vessel conditions and knock-on effects of delays. As a result, this paper develops a model for analyzing and predicting the arrival punctuality of a liner vessel at ports of call under uncertain environments by using a hybrid decision-making technique, the Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBBN. In order to ensure the practicability of the model, two container vessels have been tested by using the proposed model. The results have shown that the differences between prediction values and real arrival times are only 4.2% and 6.6%, which can be considered as reasonable. This model is capable of helping liner shipping operators (LSOs to predict the arrival punctuality of their vessel at a particular port of call.

  9. On local optima in learning bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Jens; Kocka, Tomas; Pena, Jose

    2003-01-01

    This paper proposes and evaluates the k-greedy equivalence search algorithm (KES) for learning Bayesian networks (BNs) from complete data. The main characteristic of KES is that it allows a trade-off between greediness and randomness, thus exploring different good local optima. When greediness...

  10. Posterior Predictive Model Checking in Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Aaron

    2014-01-01

    This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…

  11. Face detection by aggregated Bayesian network classifiers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pham, T.V.; Worring, M.; Smeulders, A.W.M.

    2002-01-01

    A face detection system is presented. A new classification method using forest-structured Bayesian networks is used. The method is used in an aggregated classifier to discriminate face from non-face patterns. The process of generating non-face patterns is integrated with the construction of the aggr

  12. Most frugal explanations in Bayesian networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwisthout, J.H.P.

    2015-01-01

    Inferring the most probable explanation to a set of variables, given a partial observation of the remaining variables, is one of the canonical computational problems in Bayesian networks, with widespread applications in AI and beyond. This problem, known as MAP, is computationally intractable (NP-ha

  13. Filtering in hybrid dynamic Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Morten Nonboe; Andersen, Rasmus Ørum; Wheeler, Kevin

    2004-01-01

    We demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is possible using the 2-Time Slice DBN (2T-DBN) from (Koller & Lerner, 2000) to model fault detection in a watertank system. In (Koller & Lerner, 2000) a generic Particle Filter (PF) is used for infere...

  14. Filtering in hybrid dynamic Bayesian networks (left)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Morten Nonboe; Andersen, Rasmus Ørum; Wheeler, Kevin

    We demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is possible using the 2-Time Slice DBN (2T-DBN) from (Koller & Lerner, 2000) to model fault detection in a watertank system. In (Koller & Lerner, 2000) a generic Particle Filter (PF) is used for infere...

  15. Filtering in hybrid dynamic Bayesian networks (center)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Morten Nonboe; Andersen, Rasmus Ørum; Wheeler, Kevin

    We demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is possible using the 2-Time Slice DBN (2T-DBN) from (Koller & Lerner, 2000) to model fault detection in a watertank system. In (Koller & Lerner, 2000) a generic Particle Filter (PF) is used for infere...

  16. Modelling crime linkage with Bayesian networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. de Zoete; M. Sjerps; D. Lagnado; N. Fenton

    2015-01-01

    When two or more crimes show specific similarities, such as a very distinct modus operandi, the probability that they were committed by the same offender becomes of interest. This probability depends on the degree of similarity and distinctiveness. We show how Bayesian networks can be used to model

  17. Software Failure Predication Model Based on Bayesian Network%基于Bayes网的软件失效预测模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    白成刚; 俞蒙槐; 胡上序; 蔡开元

    2003-01-01

    Owing to the complexity of software development,the software reliability model should not only have the capability of dealing with multiple complex factors,but also provide the function of flexibility in construction. So far, no software reliability model is universally applicable. The main reason for this is of too many conditions, thus making software reliability models introvert. Bayesian network is a powerful tool for solving this problem, which exhibits strong adaptability in dealing with problems revolving complex variant factors. In the paper,software failure predication model based on Markov. Bayesian network is established and analyzed thoroughly. Then a method of solving the model is given. Finally,through an example the validity of the model is validated.

  18. A Bayesian network approach to coastal storm impact modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jäger, W.S.; Den Heijer, C.; Bolle, A.; Hanea, A.M.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we develop a Bayesian network (BN) that relates offshore storm conditions to their accompagnying flood characteristics and damages to residential buildings, following on the trend of integrated flood impact modeling. It is based on data from hydrodynamic storm simulations, information

  19. Bayesian network modelling of upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aisha, Nazziwa; Shohaimi, Shamarina; Adam, Mohd Bakri

    2013-09-01

    Bayesian networks are graphical probabilistic models that represent causal and other relationships between domain variables. In the context of medical decision making, these models have been explored to help in medical diagnosis and prognosis. In this paper, we discuss the Bayesian network formalism in building medical support systems and we learn a tree augmented naive Bayes Network (TAN) from gastrointestinal bleeding data. The accuracy of the TAN in classifying the source of gastrointestinal bleeding into upper or lower source is obtained. The TAN achieves a high classification accuracy of 86% and an area under curve of 92%. A sensitivity analysis of the model shows relatively high levels of entropy reduction for color of the stool, history of gastrointestinal bleeding, consistency and the ratio of blood urea nitrogen to creatinine. The TAN facilitates the identification of the source of GIB and requires further validation.

  20. Bayesian Overlapping Community Detection in Dynamic Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Ghorbani, Mahsa; Khodadadi, Ali

    2016-01-01

    Detecting community structures in social networks has gained considerable attention in recent years. However, lack of prior knowledge about the number of communities, and their overlapping nature have made community detection a challenging problem. Moreover, many of the existing methods only consider static networks, while most of real world networks are dynamic and evolve over time. Hence, finding consistent overlapping communities in dynamic networks without any prior knowledge about the number of communities is still an interesting open research problem. In this paper, we present an overlapping community detection method for dynamic networks called Dynamic Bayesian Overlapping Community Detector (DBOCD). DBOCD assumes that in every snapshot of network, overlapping parts of communities are dense areas and utilizes link communities instead of common node communities. Using Recurrent Chinese Restaurant Process and community structure of the network in the last snapshot, DBOCD simultaneously extracts the numbe...

  1. Filtering in Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Morten Nonboe; Andersen, Rasmus Orum; Wheeler, Kevin

    2004-01-01

    We demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is possible using the 2 - T i e Slice DBN (2T-DBN) from [Koller & Lerner, 20001 to model fault detection in a watertank system. In [Koller & Lerner, 20001 a generic Particle Filter (PF) is used for inference. We extend the experiment and perform approximate inference using The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). Furthermore, we combine these techniques in a 'non-strict' Rao-Blackwellisation framework and apply it to the watertank system. We show that UKF and UKF in a PF framework outperfom the generic PF, EKF and EKF in a PF framework with respect to accuracy and robustness in terms of estimation RMSE. Especially we demonstrate the superiority of UKF in a PF framework when our beliefs of how data was generated are wrong. We also show that the choice of network structure is very important for the performance of the generic PF and the EKF algorithms, but not for the UKF algorithms. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of data noise in the water[ank simulation. Theory and implementation is based on the theory presented.

  2. Filtering in Hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Morten Nonboe; Andersen, Rasmus Orum; Wheeler, Kevin

    2000-01-01

    We implement a 2-time slice dynamic Bayesian network (2T-DBN) framework and make a 1-D state estimation simulation, an extension of the experiment in (v.d. Merwe et al., 2000) and compare different filtering techniques. Furthermore, we demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid DBN is possible by simulating fault detection in a watertank system, an extension of the experiment in (Koller & Lerner, 2000) using a hybrid 2T-DBN. In both experiments, we perform approximate inference using standard filtering techniques, Monte Carlo methods and combinations of these. In the watertank simulation, we also demonstrate the use of 'non-strict' Rao-Blackwellisation. We show that the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and UKF in a particle filtering framework outperform the generic particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and EKF in a particle filtering framework with respect to accuracy in terms of estimation RMSE and sensitivity with respect to choice of network structure. Especially we demonstrate the superiority of UKF in a PF framework when our beliefs of how data was generated are wrong. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of data noise in the watertank simulation using UKF and PFUKD and show that the algorithms are more sensitive to changes in the measurement noise level that the process noise level. Theory and implementation is based on (v.d. Merwe et al., 2000).

  3. Application of Bayesian neural networks to energy reconstruction in EAS experiments for ground-based TeV astrophysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Y.; Xu, Y.; Pan, J.; Lan, J. Q.; Gao, W. W.

    2016-07-01

    A toy detector array is designed to detect a shower generated by the interaction between a TeV cosmic ray and the atmosphere. In the present paper, the primary energies of showers detected by the detector array are reconstructed with the algorithm of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and a standard method like the LHAASO experiment [1], respectively. Compared to the standard method, the energy resolutions are significantly improved using the BNNs. And the improvement is more obvious for the high energy showers than the low energy ones.

  4. A COMPOUND POISSON MODEL FOR LEARNING DISCRETE BAYESIAN NETWORKS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Abdelaziz GHRIBI; Afif MASMOUDI

    2013-01-01

    We introduce here the concept of Bayesian networks, in compound Poisson model, which provides a graphical modeling framework that encodes the joint probability distribution for a set of random variables within a directed acyclic graph. We suggest an approach proposal which offers a new mixed implicit estimator. We show that the implicit approach applied in compound Poisson model is very attractive for its ability to understand data and does not require any prior information. A comparative study between learned estimates given by implicit and by standard Bayesian approaches is established. Under some conditions and based on minimal squared error calculations, we show that the mixed implicit estimator is better than the standard Bayesian and the maximum likelihood estimators. We illustrate our approach by considering a simulation study in the context of mobile communication networks.

  5. 基于共轭先验分布的贝叶斯网络分类模型%Bayesian network classifier based on conjugate prior distribution

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨颖涛; 王跃钢; 邓卫强; 徐洪涛

    2012-01-01

    针对贝叶斯网络后验概率需计算样本边际分布,计算代价大的问题,将共轭先验分布思想引入贝叶斯分类,提出了基于共轭先验分布的贝叶斯网络分类模型.针对非区间离散样本,提出一种自适应的样本离散方法,将小波包提取模拟电路故障特征离散化作为分类模型属性.仿真验证表明,模型分类效果较好,算法运行速度得以提高,也可应用于连续样本和多分类的情况,扩展了贝叶斯网络分类的应用范围.%In order to reducing calculate costs of Bayesian network,when calculating posterior probability of samples that need the marginal distribution,an approach of Bayesian network classifier based on conjugate prior distribution is proposed. An adaptive discretization method is also proposed to discrete non-interval samples. The fault feature of analog circuit extracted by wavelet packet is taken as a discrete property of Bayesian network classification model. The simulation result shows that,this classifier has high accuracy and efficiency of analog circuit fault diagnosis,and can be applied to continuous and multi-classification case,which extends the scope of application of Bayesian network classification.

  6. Granger causality vs. dynamic Bayesian network inference: a comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Jianfeng

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In computational biology, one often faces the problem of deriving the causal relationship among different elements such as genes, proteins, metabolites, neurons and so on, based upon multi-dimensional temporal data. Currently, there are two common approaches used to explore the network structure among elements. One is the Granger causality approach, and the other is the dynamic Bayesian network inference approach. Both have at least a few thousand publications reported in the literature. A key issue is to choose which approach is used to tackle the data, in particular when they give rise to contradictory results. Results In this paper, we provide an answer by focusing on a systematic and computationally intensive comparison between the two approaches on both synthesized and experimental data. For synthesized data, a critical point of the data length is found: the dynamic Bayesian network outperforms the Granger causality approach when the data length is short, and vice versa. We then test our results in experimental data of short length which is a common scenario in current biological experiments: it is again confirmed that the dynamic Bayesian network works better. Conclusion When the data size is short, the dynamic Bayesian network inference performs better than the Granger causality approach; otherwise the Granger causality approach is better.

  7. 基于DBN的空间战场目标威胁评估%Threat Assessment for Space Battlefield Targets Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周立新; 李智

    2011-01-01

    空间战场目标威胁评估对未来空间作战指挥决策具有重要的意义,探讨了空间战场的特点及空间战场威胁目标的特点.针对静态贝叶斯网络(Bayesian network,BN)无法有效地解决动态空间战场中目标的威胁评估问题,提出利用动态贝叶斯网络(dynamic Bayesian network,DBN)来解决空间战场目标威胁评估,建立了基于DBN的空间战场目标威胁评估模型,利用所建立的模型进行了仿真计算.研究结果证明,基于DBN的空间战场目标威胁评估模型能够适应战场形势的变化,可应用于未来空间战场目标威胁评估专家系统的开发,并且比利用静态BN得出的威胁程度更准确,可靠性更高.%Threat assessment of space battlefield targets has great meaning for command and decision-making in the future space operation. The paper discusses the characteristics of space battlefield and space threat targets. Aiming at the problem of threat assessment that is not well solved by Bayes-ian network (BN) in the dynamic space battlefield, a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) theory is introduced. After that, a DBN-based threat assessment model for space operation is constructed; then, the paper performs a simulation using the proposed model. The simulation result shows that the DBN-based threat assessment model is adaptive to the dynamic change in the battlefield; it can be used in the process of developing the expert system in the future space operation. What is more, the DBN-- based threat assessment model is more effective and reliable to reflect the real threat level than the Bayesian network model.

  8. Integrative bayesian network analysis of genomic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Yang; Stingo, Francesco C; Baladandayuthapani, Veerabhadran

    2014-01-01

    Rapid development of genome-wide profiling technologies has made it possible to conduct integrative analysis on genomic data from multiple platforms. In this study, we develop a novel integrative Bayesian network approach to investigate the relationships between genetic and epigenetic alterations as well as how these mutations affect a patient's clinical outcome. We take a Bayesian network approach that admits a convenient decomposition of the joint distribution into local distributions. Exploiting the prior biological knowledge about regulatory mechanisms, we model each local distribution as linear regressions. This allows us to analyze multi-platform genome-wide data in a computationally efficient manner. We illustrate the performance of our approach through simulation studies. Our methods are motivated by and applied to a multi-platform glioblastoma dataset, from which we reveal several biologically relevant relationships that have been validated in the literature as well as new genes that could potentially be novel biomarkers for cancer progression.

  9. Learning Bayesian networks using genetic algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chen Fei; Wang Xiufeng; Rao Yimei

    2007-01-01

    A new method to evaluate the fitness of the Bayesian networks according to the observed data is provided. The main advantage of this criterion is that it is suitable for both the complete and incomplete cases while the others not.Moreover it facilitates the computation greatly. In order to reduce the search space, the notation of equivalent class proposed by David Chickering is adopted. Instead of using the method directly, the novel criterion, variable ordering, and equivalent class are combined,moreover the proposed mthod avoids some problems caused by the previous one. Later, the genetic algorithm which allows global convergence, lack in the most of the methods searching for Bayesian network is applied to search for a good model in thisspace. To speed up the convergence, the genetic algorithm is combined with the greedy algorithm. Finally, the simulation shows the validity of the proposed approach.

  10. Software Health Management with Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengshoel, Ole; Schumann, JOhann

    2011-01-01

    Most modern aircraft as well as other complex machinery is equipped with diagnostics systems for its major subsystems. During operation, sensors provide important information about the subsystem (e.g., the engine) and that information is used to detect and diagnose faults. Most of these systems focus on the monitoring of a mechanical, hydraulic, or electromechanical subsystem of the vehicle or machinery. Only recently, health management systems that monitor software have been developed. In this paper, we will discuss our approach of using Bayesian networks for Software Health Management (SWHM). We will discuss SWHM requirements, which make advanced reasoning capabilities for the detection and diagnosis important. Then we will present our approach to using Bayesian networks for the construction of health models that dynamically monitor a software system and is capable of detecting and diagnosing faults.

  11. Using Bayesian networks to support decision-focused information retrieval

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehner, P.; Elsaesser, C.; Seligman, L. [Mitre Corp., McLean, VA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper has described an approach to controlling the process of pulling data/information from distributed data bases in a way that is specific to a persons specific decision making context. Our prototype implementation of this approach uses a knowledge-based planner to generate a plan, an automatically constructed Bayesian network to evaluate the plan, specialized processing of the network to derive key information items that would substantially impact the evaluation of the plan (e.g., determine that replanning is needed), automated construction of Standing Requests for Information (SRIs) which are automated functions that monitor changes and trends in distributed data base that are relevant to the key information items. This emphasis of this paper is on how Bayesian networks are used.

  12. Bayesian belief networks in business continuity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillipson, Frank; Matthijssen, Edwin; Attema, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Business continuity professionals aim to mitigate the various challenges to the continuity of their company. The goal is a coherent system of measures that encompass detection, prevention and recovery. Choices made in one part of the system affect other parts as well as the continuity risks of the company. In complex organisations, however, these relations are far from obvious. This paper proposes the use of Bayesian belief networks to expose these relations, and presents a modelling framework for this approach.

  13. Graphic Symbol Recognition using Graph Based Signature and Bayesian Network Classifier

    OpenAIRE

    Luqman, Muhammad Muzzamil; Brouard, Thierry; Ramel, Jean-Yves

    2010-01-01

    We present a new approach for recognition of complex graphic symbols in technical documents. Graphic symbol recognition is a well known challenge in the field of document image analysis and is at heart of most graphic recognition systems. Our method uses structural approach for symbol representation and statistical classifier for symbol recognition. In our system we represent symbols by their graph based signatures: a graphic symbol is vectorized and is converted to an attributed relational g...

  14. Mobile sensor network noise reduction and recalibration using a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Y.; Tang, Y.; Zhu, W.

    2016-02-01

    People are becoming increasingly interested in mobile air quality sensor network applications. By eliminating the inaccuracies caused by spatial and temporal heterogeneity of pollutant distributions, this method shows great potential for atmospheric research. However, systems based on low-cost air quality sensors often suffer from sensor noise and drift. For the sensing systems to operate stably and reliably in real-world applications, those problems must be addressed. In this work, we exploit the correlation of different types of sensors caused by cross sensitivity to help identify and correct the outlier readings. By employing a Bayesian network based system, we are able to recover the erroneous readings and recalibrate the drifted sensors simultaneously. Our method improves upon the state-of-art Bayesian belief network techniques by incorporating the virtual evidence and adjusting the sensor calibration functions recursively.Specifically, we have (1) designed a system based on the Bayesian belief network to detect and recover the abnormal readings, (2) developed methods to update the sensor calibration functions infield without requirement of ground truth, and (3) extended the Bayesian network with virtual evidence for infield sensor recalibration. To validate our technique, we have tested our technique with metal oxide sensors measuring NO2, CO, and O3 in a real-world deployment. Compared with the existing Bayesian belief network techniques, results based on our experiment setup demonstrate that our system can reduce error by 34.1 % and recover 4 times more data on average.

  15. HEURISTIC DISCRETIZATION METHOD FOR BAYESIAN NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana D.C. Lima

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian Network (BN is a classification technique widely used in Artificial Intelligence. Its structure is a Direct Acyclic Graph (DAG used to model the association of categorical variables. However, in cases where the variables are numerical, a previous discretization is necessary. Discretization methods are usually based on a statistical approach using the data distribution, such as division by quartiles. In this article we present a discretization using a heuristic that identifies events called peak and valley. Genetic Algorithm was used to identify these events having the minimization of the error between the estimated average for BN and the actual value of the numeric variable output as the objective function. The BN has been modeled from a database of Bit’s Rate of Penetration of the Brazilian pre-salt layer with 5 numerical variables and one categorical variable, using the proposed discretization and the division of the data by the quartiles. The results show that the proposed heuristic discretization has higher accuracy than the quartiles discretization.

  16. A Bayesian Networks in Intrusion Detection Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mehdi

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Intrusion detection systems (IDSs have been widely used to overcome security threats in computer networks. Anomaly-based approaches have the advantage of being able to detect previously unknown attacks, but they suffer from the difficulty of building robust models of acceptable behaviour which may result in a large number of false alarms caused by incorrect classification of events in current systems. We propose a new approach of an anomaly Intrusion detection system (IDS. It consists of building a reference behaviour model and the use of a Bayesian classification procedure associated to unsupervised learning algorithm to evaluate the deviation between current and reference behaviour. Continuous re-estimation of model parameters allows for real time operation. The use of recursive Log-likelihood and entropy estimation as a measure for monitoring model degradation related with behavior changes and the associated model update show that the accuracy of the event classification process is significantly improved using our proposed approach for reducing the missing-alarm.

  17. Top-down feedback in an HMAX-like cortical model of object perception based on hierarchical Bayesian networks and belief propagation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Dura-Bernal

    Full Text Available Hierarchical generative models, such as Bayesian networks, and belief propagation have been shown to provide a theoretical framework that can account for perceptual processes, including feedforward recognition and feedback modulation. The framework explains both psychophysical and physiological experimental data and maps well onto the hierarchical distributed cortical anatomy. However, the complexity required to model cortical processes makes inference, even using approximate methods, very computationally expensive. Thus, existing object perception models based on this approach are typically limited to tree-structured networks with no loops, use small toy examples or fail to account for certain perceptual aspects such as invariance to transformations or feedback reconstruction. In this study we develop a Bayesian network with an architecture similar to that of HMAX, a biologically-inspired hierarchical model of object recognition, and use loopy belief propagation to approximate the model operations (selectivity and invariance. Crucially, the resulting Bayesian network extends the functionality of HMAX by including top-down recursive feedback. Thus, the proposed model not only achieves successful feedforward recognition invariant to noise, occlusions, and changes in position and size, but is also able to reproduce modulatory effects such as illusory contour completion and attention. Our novel and rigorous methodology covers key aspects such as learning using a layerwise greedy algorithm, combining feedback information from multiple parents and reducing the number of operations required. Overall, this work extends an established model of object recognition to include high-level feedback modulation, based on state-of-the-art probabilistic approaches. The methodology employed, consistent with evidence from the visual cortex, can be potentially generalized to build models of hierarchical perceptual organization that include top-down and bottom

  18. Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network for Language Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chien, Jen-Tzung; Ku, Yuan-Chu

    2016-02-01

    A language model (LM) is calculated as the probability of a word sequence that provides the solution to word prediction for a variety of information systems. A recurrent neural network (RNN) is powerful to learn the large-span dynamics of a word sequence in the continuous space. However, the training of the RNN-LM is an ill-posed problem because of too many parameters from a large dictionary size and a high-dimensional hidden layer. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to regularize the RNN-LM and apply it for continuous speech recognition. We aim to penalize the too complicated RNN-LM by compensating for the uncertainty of the estimated model parameters, which is represented by a Gaussian prior. The objective function in a Bayesian classification network is formed as the regularized cross-entropy error function. The regularized model is constructed not only by calculating the regularized parameters according to the maximum a posteriori criterion but also by estimating the Gaussian hyperparameter by maximizing the marginal likelihood. A rapid approximation to a Hessian matrix is developed to implement the Bayesian RNN-LM (BRNN-LM) by selecting a small set of salient outer-products. The proposed BRNN-LM achieves a sparser model than the RNN-LM. Experiments on different corpora show the robustness of system performance by applying the rapid BRNN-LM under different conditions.

  19. Application of Bayesian networks in quantitative risk assessment of subsea blowout preventer operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Baoping; Liu, Yonghong; Liu, Zengkai; Tian, Xiaojie; Zhang, Yanzhen; Ji, Renjie

    2013-07-01

    This article proposes a methodology for the application of Bayesian networks in conducting quantitative risk assessment of operations in offshore oil and gas industry. The method involves translating a flow chart of operations into the Bayesian network directly. The proposed methodology consists of five steps. First, the flow chart is translated into a Bayesian network. Second, the influencing factors of the network nodes are classified. Third, the Bayesian network for each factor is established. Fourth, the entire Bayesian network model is established. Lastly, the Bayesian network model is analyzed. Subsequently, five categories of influencing factors, namely, human, hardware, software, mechanical, and hydraulic, are modeled and then added to the main Bayesian network. The methodology is demonstrated through the evaluation of a case study that shows the probability of failure on demand in closing subsea ram blowout preventer operations. The results show that mechanical and hydraulic factors have the most important effects on operation safety. Software and hardware factors have almost no influence, whereas human factors are in between. The results of the sensitivity analysis agree with the findings of the quantitative analysis. The three-axiom-based analysis partially validates the correctness and rationality of the proposed Bayesian network model.

  20. Inference of gene pathways using mixture Bayesian networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ko Younhee

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inference of gene networks typically relies on measurements across a wide range of conditions or treatments. Although one network structure is predicted, the relationship between genes could vary across conditions. A comprehensive approach to infer general and condition-dependent gene networks was evaluated. This approach integrated Bayesian network and Gaussian mixture models to describe continuous microarray gene expression measurements, and three gene networks were predicted. Results The first reconstructions of a circadian rhythm pathway in honey bees and an adherens junction pathway in mouse embryos were obtained. In addition, general and condition-specific gene relationships, some unexpected, were detected in these two pathways and in a yeast cell-cycle pathway. The mixture Bayesian network approach identified all (honey bee circadian rhythm and mouse adherens junction pathways or the vast majority (yeast cell-cycle pathway of the gene relationships reported in empirical studies. Findings across the three pathways and data sets indicate that the mixture Bayesian network approach is well-suited to infer gene pathways based on microarray data. Furthermore, the interpretation of model estimates provided a broader understanding of the relationships between genes. The mixture models offered a comprehensive description of the relationships among genes in complex biological processes or across a wide range of conditions. The mixture parameter estimates and corresponding odds that the gene network inferred for a sample pertained to each mixture component allowed the uncovering of both general and condition-dependent gene relationships and patterns of expression. Conclusion This study demonstrated the two main benefits of learning gene pathways using mixture Bayesian networks. First, the identification of the optimal number of mixture components supported by the data offered a robust approach to infer gene relationships and

  1. Bayesian information fusion networks for biosurveillance applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mnatsakanyan, Zaruhi R; Burkom, Howard S; Coberly, Jacqueline S; Lombardo, Joseph S

    2009-01-01

    This study introduces new information fusion algorithms to enhance disease surveillance systems with Bayesian decision support capabilities. A detection system was built and tested using chief complaints from emergency department visits, International Classification of Diseases Revision 9 (ICD-9) codes from records of outpatient visits to civilian and military facilities, and influenza surveillance data from health departments in the National Capital Region (NCR). Data anomalies were identified and distribution of time offsets between events in the multiple data streams were established. The Bayesian Network was built to fuse data from multiple sources and identify influenza-like epidemiologically relevant events. Results showed increased specificity compared with the alerts generated by temporal anomaly detection algorithms currently deployed by NCR health departments. Further research should be done to investigate correlations between data sources for efficient fusion of the collected data.

  2. Improved Sampling for Diagnostic Reasoning in Bayesian Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Hulme, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian networks offer great potential for use in automating large scale diagnostic reasoning tasks. Gibbs sampling is the main technique used to perform diagnostic reasoning in large richly interconnected Bayesian networks. Unfortunately Gibbs sampling can take an excessive time to generate a representative sample. In this paper we describe and test a number of heuristic strategies for improving sampling in noisy-or Bayesian networks. The strategies include Monte Carlo Markov chain sampling...

  3. Seeded Bayesian Networks: Constructing genetic networks from microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quackenbush John

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background DNA microarrays and other genomics-inspired technologies provide large datasets that often include hidden patterns of correlation between genes reflecting the complex processes that underlie cellular metabolism and physiology. The challenge in analyzing large-scale expression data has been to extract biologically meaningful inferences regarding these processes – often represented as networks – in an environment where the datasets are often imperfect and biological noise can obscure the actual signal. Although many techniques have been developed in an attempt to address these issues, to date their ability to extract meaningful and predictive network relationships has been limited. Here we describe a method that draws on prior information about gene-gene interactions to infer biologically relevant pathways from microarray data. Our approach consists of using preliminary networks derived from the literature and/or protein-protein interaction data as seeds for a Bayesian network analysis of microarray results. Results Through a bootstrap analysis of gene expression data derived from a number of leukemia studies, we demonstrate that seeded Bayesian Networks have the ability to identify high-confidence gene-gene interactions which can then be validated by comparison to other sources of pathway data. Conclusion The use of network seeds greatly improves the ability of Bayesian Network analysis to learn gene interaction networks from gene expression data. We demonstrate that the use of seeds derived from the biomedical literature or high-throughput protein-protein interaction data, or the combination, provides improvement over a standard Bayesian Network analysis, allowing networks involving dynamic processes to be deduced from the static snapshots of biological systems that represent the most common source of microarray data. Software implementing these methods has been included in the widely used TM4 microarray analysis package.

  4. Lower Bound Bayesian Networks - An Efficient Inference of Lower Bounds on Probability Distributions in Bayesian Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Andrade, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    We present a new method to propagate lower bounds on conditional probability distributions in conventional Bayesian networks. Our method guarantees to provide outer approximations of the exact lower bounds. A key advantage is that we can use any available algorithms and tools for Bayesian networks in order to represent and infer lower bounds. This new method yields results that are provable exact for trees with binary variables, and results which are competitive to existing approximations in credal networks for all other network structures. Our method is not limited to a specific kind of network structure. Basically, it is also not restricted to a specific kind of inference, but we restrict our analysis to prognostic inference in this article. The computational complexity is superior to that of other existing approaches.

  5. Learning Local Components to Understand Large Bayesian Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Yifeng; Xiang, Yanping; Cordero, Jorge

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian networks are known for providing an intuitive and compact representation of probabilistic information and allowing the creation of models over a large and complex domain. Bayesian learning and reasoning are nontrivial for a large Bayesian network. In parallel, it is a tough job for users...... (domain experts) to extract accurate information from a large Bayesian network due to dimensional difficulty. We define a formulation of local components and propose a clustering algorithm to learn such local components given complete data. The algorithm groups together most inter-relevant attributes...... in a domain. We evaluate its performance on three benchmark Bayesian networks and provide results in support. We further show that the learned components may represent local knowledge more precisely in comparison to the full Bayesian networks when working with a small amount of data....

  6. Bayesian Diagnostic Network: A Powerful Model for Representation and Reasoning of Engineering Diagnostic Knowledge

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU Zhao-yong

    2005-01-01

    Engineering diagnosis is essential to the operation of industrial equipment. The key to successful diagnosis is correct knowledge representation and reasoning. The Bayesian network is a powerful tool for it. This paper utilizes the Bayesian network to represent and reason diagnostic knowledge, named Bayesian diagnostic network. It provides a three-layer topologic structure based on operating conditions, possible faults and corresponding symptoms. The paper also discusses an approximate stochastic sampling algorithm. Then a practical Bayesian network for gas turbine diagnosis is constructed on a platform developed under a Visual C++ environment. It shows that the Bayesian network is a powerful model for representation and reasoning of diagnostic knowledge. The three-layer structure and the approximate algorithm are effective also.

  7. Decision Support System for Maintenance Management Using Bayesian Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The maintenance process has undergone several major developments that have led to proactive considerations and the transformation from the traditional "fail and fix" practice into the "predict and prevent" proactive maintenance methodology. The anticipation action, which characterizes this proactive maintenance strategy is mainly based on monitoring, diagnosis, prognosis and decision-making modules. Oil monitoring is a key component of a successful condition monitoring program. It can be used as a proactive tool to identify the wear modes of rubbing parts and diagnoses the faults in machinery. But diagnosis relying on oil analysis technology must deal with uncertain knowledge and fuzzy input data. Besides other methods, Bayesian Networks have been extensively applied to fault diagnosis with the advantages of uncertainty inference; however, in the area of oil monitoring, it is a new field. This paper presents an integrated Bayesian network based decision support for maintenance of diesel engines.

  8. How Good Is Crude MDL for Solving the Bias-Variance Dilemma? An Empirical Investigation Based on Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Ramírez, Nicandro; Acosta-Mesa, Héctor Gabriel; Mezura-Montes, Efrén; Guerra-Hernández, Alejandro; Hoyos-Rivera, Guillermo de Jesús; Barrientos-Martínez, Rocío Erandi; Gutiérrez-Fragoso, Karina; Nava-Fernández, Luis Alonso; González-Gaspar, Patricia; Novoa-del-Toro, Elva María; Aguilera-Rueda, Vicente Josué; Ameca-Alducin, María Yaneli

    2014-01-01

    The bias-variance dilemma is a well-known and important problem in Machine Learning. It basically relates the generalization capability (goodness of fit) of a learning method to its corresponding complexity. When we have enough data at hand, it is possible to use these data in such a way so as to minimize overfitting (the risk of selecting a complex model that generalizes poorly). Unfortunately, there are many situations where we simply do not have this required amount of data. Thus, we need to find methods capable of efficiently exploiting the available data while avoiding overfitting. Different metrics have been proposed to achieve this goal: the Minimum Description Length principle (MDL), Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), among others. In this paper, we focus on crude MDL and empirically evaluate its performance in selecting models with a good balance between goodness of fit and complexity: the so-called bias-variance dilemma, decomposition or tradeoff. Although the graphical interaction between these dimensions (bias and variance) is ubiquitous in the Machine Learning literature, few works present experimental evidence to recover such interaction. In our experiments, we argue that the resulting graphs allow us to gain insights that are difficult to unveil otherwise: that crude MDL naturally selects balanced models in terms of bias-variance, which not necessarily need be the gold-standard ones. We carry out these experiments using a specific model: a Bayesian network. In spite of these motivating results, we also should not overlook three other components that may significantly affect the final model selection: the search procedure, the noise rate and the sample size. PMID:24671204

  9. How good is crude MDL for solving the bias-variance dilemma? An empirical investigation based on Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Ramírez, Nicandro; Acosta-Mesa, Héctor Gabriel; Mezura-Montes, Efrén; Guerra-Hernández, Alejandro; Hoyos-Rivera, Guillermo de Jesús; Barrientos-Martínez, Rocío Erandi; Gutiérrez-Fragoso, Karina; Nava-Fernández, Luis Alonso; González-Gaspar, Patricia; Novoa-del-Toro, Elva María; Aguilera-Rueda, Vicente Josué; Ameca-Alducin, María Yaneli

    2014-01-01

    The bias-variance dilemma is a well-known and important problem in Machine Learning. It basically relates the generalization capability (goodness of fit) of a learning method to its corresponding complexity. When we have enough data at hand, it is possible to use these data in such a way so as to minimize overfitting (the risk of selecting a complex model that generalizes poorly). Unfortunately, there are many situations where we simply do not have this required amount of data. Thus, we need to find methods capable of efficiently exploiting the available data while avoiding overfitting. Different metrics have been proposed to achieve this goal: the Minimum Description Length principle (MDL), Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), among others. In this paper, we focus on crude MDL and empirically evaluate its performance in selecting models with a good balance between goodness of fit and complexity: the so-called bias-variance dilemma, decomposition or tradeoff. Although the graphical interaction between these dimensions (bias and variance) is ubiquitous in the Machine Learning literature, few works present experimental evidence to recover such interaction. In our experiments, we argue that the resulting graphs allow us to gain insights that are difficult to unveil otherwise: that crude MDL naturally selects balanced models in terms of bias-variance, which not necessarily need be the gold-standard ones. We carry out these experiments using a specific model: a Bayesian network. In spite of these motivating results, we also should not overlook three other components that may significantly affect the final model selection: the search procedure, the noise rate and the sample size.

  10. 基于云参数贝叶斯网络的威胁评估方法%An Threat Assessment Method Based on Cloud Parameters Bayesian Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王巍

    2016-01-01

    For the disadvantages of lacking sample data of threat assessment and large workload of experts building Bayesian network,a threat assessment method based on cloud parameters Bayesian network is proposed. The method combines cloud model expression ability with Bayesian network inference ability. On the one hand,the cloud expression ability is used to build a Bayesian network parameters,on the other hand,the Bayesian network inference ability is applied to calculate the posterior probability. First,it uses expert knowledge to generate membership cloud parameters with the media of state combination weight and converts membership cloud to conditional proba-bility tables by the uncertainty of state combination weights,so as to achieve the purpose to build the assessment model in less workload of experts. Then use of Bayesian network of threat assessment built by experts and conditional probability table generated for threat assess-ment reasoning,the final evaluation results are obtained. The experiment shows that this method is generated in line with the experts ex-pected,and can be effectively applied to threat assessment.%文中以威胁评估为背景,针对威胁评估中样本数据不充足,专家构建贝叶斯网络参数工作量大的问题,提出了基于云参数贝叶斯网络的威胁评估方法。把云的表达能力与贝叶斯网络的推理能力相结合,一是运用云的表达能力构建贝叶斯网络参数,二是运用贝叶斯网络的推理能力计算后验概率。首先,以状态组合权值为媒介运用专家知识构建隶属云模型,并利用状态组合权值的不确定度将隶属云模型转换为条件概率表,从而达到以较少的专家工作完成评估模型构建的目的;其次,运用专家构建的威胁评估贝叶斯网络和生成的条件概率表进行威胁评估推理,得到最终的评估结果。实验结果表明,该方法生成的条件概率表的统计数据与专家知识相符

  11. Bayesian Network Classifier Based on L1 Regularization%基于L1正则化的贝叶斯网络分类器

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王影; 王浩; 俞奎; 姚宏亮

    2012-01-01

    Variable order-based Bayesian network classifiers ignore the information of the selected variables in their sequence and their class label, which significantly hurts the classification accuracy. To address this problem, we proposed a simple and efficient LI regularized Bayesian network classifier (Ll-BNC). Through adjusting the constraint value of Lasso and fully taking advantage of the regression residuals of the information, Ll-BNC takes the information of the sequence of selected variables and the class label into account,and then generates an excellent variable ordering sequence (LI regularization path) for constructing a good Bayesian network classifier by the K2 algorithm. Experimental results show that Ll-BNC outperforms existing state-of-the-art Bayesian network classifiers. In addition, in comparison with SVM.Knn and J48 classification algorithms,Ll-BNC is also superior to those algorithms on most datasets.%目前基于节点排序的贝叶斯网络分类器忽略了节点序列中已选变量和类标签之间的信息,导致分类器的准确率很难进一步提高.针对这个问题,提出了一种简单高效的贝叶斯网络分类器的学习算法:L1正则化的贝叶斯网络分类器(L1-BNC).通过调整Lasso方法中的约束值,充分利用回归残差的信息,结合点序列中已选变量和类标签的信息,形成一条优秀的有序变量拓扑序列(L1正则化路径);基于该序列,利用K2算法生成优良的贝叶斯网络分类器.实验表明,L1-BNC在分类精度上优于已有的贝叶斯网络分类器.L1-BNC也与SVM,KNN和J48分类算法进行了比较,在大部分数据集上,L1-BNC优于这些算法.

  12. Bayesian Network Enhanced with Structural Reliability Methods: Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Straub, Daniel; Der Kiureghian, Armen

    2012-01-01

    We combine Bayesian networks (BNs) and structural reliability methods (SRMs) to create a new computational framework, termed enhanced Bayesian network (eBN), for reliability and risk analysis of engineering structures and infrastructure. BNs are efficient in representing and evaluating complex probabilistic dependence structures, as present in infrastructure and structural systems, and they facilitate Bayesian updating of the model when new information becomes available. On the other hand, SR...

  13. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, Michael S.

    2011-01-01

    Conventional training methods for neural networks involve starting al a random location in the solution space of the network weights, navigating an error hyper surface to reach a minimum, and sometime stochastic based techniques (e.g., genetic algorithms) to avoid entrapment in a local minimum. It is further typically necessary to preprocess the data (e.g., normalization) to keep the training algorithm on course. Conversely, Bayesian based learning is an epistemological approach concerned with formally updating the plausibility of competing candidate hypotheses thereby obtaining a posterior distribution for the network weights conditioned on the available data and a prior distribution. In this paper, we developed a powerful methodology for estimating the full residual uncertainty in network weights and therefore network predictions by using a modified Jeffery's prior combined with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

  14. Towards an inclusion driven learning of Bayesian Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castelo, R.; Kocka, T.

    2002-01-01

    Two or more Bayesian Networks are Markov equivalent when their corresponding acyclic digraphs encode the same set of conditional independence (= CI) restrictions. Therefore, the search space of Bayesian Networks may be organized in classes of equivalence, where each of them consists of a particular

  15. Fuzzy Naive Bayesian for constructing regulated network with weights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xi Y; Tian, Xue W; Lim, Joon S

    2015-01-01

    In the data mining field, classification is a very crucial technology, and the Bayesian classifier has been one of the hotspots in classification research area. However, assumptions of Naive Bayesian and Tree Augmented Naive Bayesian (TAN) are unfair to attribute relations. Therefore, this paper proposes a new algorithm named Fuzzy Naive Bayesian (FNB) using neural network with weighted membership function (NEWFM) to extract regulated relations and weights. Then, we can use regulated relations and weights to construct a regulated network. Finally, we will classify the heart and Haberman datasets by the FNB network to compare with experiments of Naive Bayesian and TAN. The experiment results show that the FNB has a higher classification rate than Naive Bayesian and TAN.

  16. Conditions for the adoption of conservation agriculture in Central Morocco: an approach based on Bayesian network modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Bonzanigo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Research in Central Morocco, proves that conservation agriculture increases yields, reduces labour requirements, and erosion, and improves soil fertility. However, after nearly two decades of demonstration and advocacy, adoption is still limited. This paper investigates the critical constraints and potential opportunities for the adoption of conservation agriculture for different typologies of farms. We measured the possible pathways of adoption via a Bayesian decision network (BDN. BDNs allow the inclusion of stakeholders’ knowledge where data is scant, whilst at the same time they are supported by a robust mathematical background. We first developed a conceptual map of the elements affecting the decision about tillage, which we refined in a workshop with farmers and researchers from the Settat area. We then involved experts in the elicitation of conditional probabilities tables, to quantify the cascade of causal links that determine (or not the adoption. Via BDNs, we could categorise under which specific technical and socio-economic conditions no tillage agriculture is best suited to which farmers. We, by identifying the main constraints and running sensitivity analyses, were able to convey clear messages on how policy- makers may facilitate the conversion. As new evidence is collected, the BDN can be updated to obtain evidence more targeted and fine tuned to the adoption contexts.

  17. A Review of Predictive Analytic Applications of Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Hafiz Mohd Yusof

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Malware can be defined as malicious software that infiltrates a network and computer host in a variety of ways, from software flaws to social engineering. Due to the polymorphic and stealth nature of malware attacks, a signature-based analysis that is done statically is no longer sufficient to solve such a problem. Therefore, a behavioral or anomalous analysis will provide a more dynamic approach for the solution. However recent studies have shown that current behavioral methods at the network-level have several issues such as the inability to predict zero-day attacks, high-level assumptions, non-inferential analysis and performance issues. Other than performance issues, this study has identified common scientific characteristics which are reduced parameter, θ and lack of priori information p(θ that causes the problems. Previous methods were proposed to address the problem however were still unable to resolve the stated scientific hitches. Due to the shortcomings, the Bayesian Network in terms of its probabilistic modelling would be the best method to deal with the stated scientific glitches which also have been proven in the area of Clinical Expert Systems, Artificial Intelligence and Pattern Recognition. This study will critically review the predictive analytic applications of Bayesian Network model in different research domain such as Clinical Expert Systems, Artificial Intelligence and Pattern Recognition and discover any potential approach available in the domain of Computer Networks. Based on the review, this paper has identified several Bayesian Network properties which have been used to overcome the abovementioned problems. Those properties will be applied in future studies to model the Behavioral Malware Predictive Analytics.

  18. A Bayesian regularized artificial neural network for adaptive optics forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Zhi; Chen, Ying; Li, Xinyang; Qin, Xiaolin; Wang, Huiyong

    2017-01-01

    Real-time adaptive optics is a technology for enhancing the resolution of ground-based optical telescopes and overcoming the disturbance of atmospheric turbulence. The performance of the system is limited by delay errors induced by the servo system and photoelectrons noise of wavefront sensor. In order to cut these delay errors, this paper proposes a novel model to forecast the future control voltages of the deformable mirror. The predictive model is constructed by a multi-layered back propagation network with Bayesian regularization (BRBP). For the purpose of parallel computation and less disturbance, we adopt a number of sub-BP neural networks to substitute the whole network. The Bayesian regularized network assigns a probability to the network weights, allowing the network to automatically and optimally penalize excessively complex models. The simulation results show that the BRBP introduces smaller mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square errors (MSE) than other typical algorithms. Meanwhile, real data analysis results show that the BRBP model has strong generalization capability and parallelism.

  19. Bayesian network models for error detection in radiotherapy plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalet, Alan M; Gennari, John H; Ford, Eric C; Phillips, Mark H

    2015-04-07

    The purpose of this study is to design and develop a probabilistic network for detecting errors in radiotherapy plans for use at the time of initial plan verification. Our group has initiated a multi-pronged approach to reduce these errors. We report on our development of Bayesian models of radiotherapy plans. Bayesian networks consist of joint probability distributions that define the probability of one event, given some set of other known information. Using the networks, we find the probability of obtaining certain radiotherapy parameters, given a set of initial clinical information. A low probability in a propagated network then corresponds to potential errors to be flagged for investigation. To build our networks we first interviewed medical physicists and other domain experts to identify the relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies and to construct a network topology. Next, to populate the network's conditional probability tables, we used the Hugin Expert software to learn parameter distributions from a subset of de-identified data derived from a radiation oncology based clinical information database system. These data represent 4990 unique prescription cases over a 5 year period. Under test case scenarios with approximately 1.5% introduced error rates, network performance produced areas under the ROC curve of 0.88, 0.98, and 0.89 for the lung, brain and female breast cancer error detection networks, respectively. Comparison of the brain network to human experts performance (AUC of 0.90 ± 0.01) shows the Bayes network model performs better than domain experts under the same test conditions. Our results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of comprehensive probabilistic models as part of decision support systems for improved detection of errors in initial radiotherapy plan verification procedures.

  20. Question Generation and Adaptation Using a Bayesian Network of the Learner’s Achievements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wißner, M.; Linnebank, F.; Liem, J.; Bredeweg, B.; André, E.; Lane, H.C.; Yacef, K.; Mostow, J.; Pavlik, P.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a domain independent question generation and interaction procedure that automatically generates multiple-choice questions for conceptual models created with Qualitative Reasoning vocabulary. A Bayesian Network is deployed that captures the learning progress based on the answers

  1. Using consensus bayesian network to model the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Liangdong; Wang, Limin

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn bayesian networks contain too few microarray data. In this paper, we propose a consensus bayesian network which is constructed by combining bayesian networks from relevant literatures and bayesian networks learned from microarray data. It would have a higher accuracy than the bayesian networks learned from one database. In the experiment, we validated the bayesian network combination algorithm on several classic machine learning databases and used the consensus bayesian network to model the Escherichia coli's ROS pathway.

  2. Fault Diagnosis for Fuel Cell Based on Naive Bayesian Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liping Fan

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Many kinds of uncertain factors may exist in the process of fault diagnosis and affect diagnostic results. Bayesian network is one of the most effective theoretical models for uncertain knowledge expression and reasoning. The method of naive Bayesian classification is used in this paper in fault diagnosis of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC system. Based on the model of PEMFC, fault data are obtained through simulation experiment, learning and training of the naive Bayesian classification are finished, and some testing samples are selected to validate this method. Simulation results demonstrate that the method is feasible.    

  3. Logistic regression against a divergent Bayesian network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noel Antonio Sánchez Trujillo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is a discussion about two statistical tools used for prediction and causality assessment: logistic regression and Bayesian networks. Using data of a simulated example from a study assessing factors that might predict pulmonary emphysema (where fingertip pigmentation and smoking are considered; we posed the following questions. Is pigmentation a confounding, causal or predictive factor? Is there perhaps another factor, like smoking, that confounds? Is there a synergy between pigmentation and smoking? The results, in terms of prediction, are similar with the two techniques; regarding causation, differences arise. We conclude that, in decision-making, the sum of both: a statistical tool, used with common sense, and previous evidence, taking years or even centuries to develop; is better than the automatic and exclusive use of statistical resources.

  4. Modelling crime linkage with Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Zoete, Jacob; Sjerps, Marjan; Lagnado, David; Fenton, Norman

    2015-05-01

    When two or more crimes show specific similarities, such as a very distinct modus operandi, the probability that they were committed by the same offender becomes of interest. This probability depends on the degree of similarity and distinctiveness. We show how Bayesian networks can be used to model different evidential structures that can occur when linking crimes, and how they assist in understanding the complex underlying dependencies. That is, how evidence that is obtained in one case can be used in another and vice versa. The flip side of this is that the intuitive decision to "unlink" a case in which exculpatory evidence is obtained leads to serious overestimation of the strength of the remaining cases.

  5. Real-time reliability evaluation methodology based on dynamic Bayesian networks: A case study of a subsea pipe ram BOP system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Baoping; Liu, Yonghong; Ma, Yunpeng; Liu, Zengkai; Zhou, Yuming; Sun, Junhe

    2015-09-01

    A novel real-time reliability evaluation methodology is proposed by combining root cause diagnosis phase based on Bayesian networks (BNs) and reliability evaluation phase based on dynamic BNs (DBNs). The root cause diagnosis phase exactly locates the root cause of a complex mechatronic system failure in real time to increase diagnostic coverage and is performed through backward analysis of BNs. The reliability evaluation phase calculates the real-time reliability of the entire system by forward inference of DBNs. The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated using a case of a subsea pipe ram blowout preventer system. The value and the variation trend of real-time system reliability when the faults of components occur are studied; the importance degree sequence of components at different times is also determined using mutual information and belief variance. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. High-throughput Bayesian Network Learning using Heterogeneous Multicore Computers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linderman, Michael D; Athalye, Vivek; Meng, Teresa H; Asadi, Narges Bani; Bruggner, Robert; Nolan, Garry P

    2010-06-01

    Aberrant intracellular signaling plays an important role in many diseases. The causal structure of signal transduction networks can be modeled as Bayesian Networks (BNs), and computationally learned from experimental data. However, learning the structure of Bayesian Networks (BNs) is an NP-hard problem that, even with fast heuristics, is too time consuming for large, clinically important networks (20-50 nodes). In this paper, we present a novel graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated implementation of a Monte Carlo Markov Chain-based algorithm for learning BNs that is up to 7.5-fold faster than current general-purpose processor (GPP)-based implementations. The GPU-based implementation is just one of several implementations within the larger application, each optimized for a different input or machine configuration. We describe the methodology we use to build an extensible application, assembled from these variants, that can target a broad range of heterogeneous systems, e.g., GPUs, multicore GPPs. Specifically we show how we use the Merge programming model to efficiently integrate, test and intelligently select among the different potential implementations.

  7. Precise Network Modeling of Systems Genetics Data Using the Bayesian Network Webserver.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziebarth, Jesse D; Cui, Yan

    2017-01-01

    The Bayesian Network Webserver (BNW, http://compbio.uthsc.edu/BNW ) is an integrated platform for Bayesian network modeling of biological datasets. It provides a web-based network modeling environment that seamlessly integrates advanced algorithms for probabilistic causal modeling and reasoning with Bayesian networks. BNW is designed for precise modeling of relatively small networks that contain less than 20 nodes. The structure learning algorithms used by BNW guarantee the discovery of the best (most probable) network structure given the data. To facilitate network modeling across multiple biological levels, BNW provides a very flexible interface that allows users to assign network nodes into different tiers and define the relationships between and within the tiers. This function is particularly useful for modeling systems genetics datasets that often consist of multiscalar heterogeneous genotype-to-phenotype data. BNW enables users to, within seconds or minutes, go from having a simply formatted input file containing a dataset to using a network model to make predictions about the interactions between variables and the potential effects of experimental interventions. In this chapter, we will introduce the functions of BNW and show how to model systems genetics datasets with BNW.

  8. PedExpert: a computer program for the application of Bayesian networks to human paternity testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, R R; Campos, S V A; Pena, S D J

    2009-01-01

    PedExpert is a Windows-based Bayesian network software, especially constructed to solve problems in parentage testing that are complex because of missing genetic information on the alleged father and/or because they involve genetic mutations. PedExpert automates the creation and manipulation of Bayesian networks, implementing algorithms that convert pedigrees and sets of indispensable information (genotypes, allele frequencies, mutation rates) into Bayesian networks. This program has a novel feature that can incorporate information about gene mutations into tables of conditional probabilities of transmission of alleles from the alleged father to the child, without adding new nodes to the network. This permits using the same Bayesian network in different modes, for analysis of cases that include mutations or not. PedExpert is user-friendly and greatly reduces the time of analysis for complex cases of paternity testing, eliminating most sources of logical and operational error.

  9. Information flow among neural networks with Bayesian estimation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Yan; LI XiaoLi; OUYANG GaoXiang; GUAN XinPing

    2007-01-01

    Estimating the interaction among neural networks is an interesting issue in neuroscience. Some methods have been proposed to estimate the coupling strength among neural networks; however, few estimations of the coupling direction (information flow) among neural networks have been attempted. It is known that Bayesian estimator is based on a priori knowledge and a probability of event occurrence. In this paper, a new method is proposed to estimate coupling directions among neural networks with conditional mutual information that is estimated by Bayesian estimation. First, this method is applied to analyze the simulated EEG series generated by a nonlinear lumped-parameter model. In comparison with the conditional mutual information with Shannon entropy, it is found that this method is more successful in estimating the coupling direction, and is insensitive to the length of EEG series. Therefore, this method is suitable to analyze a short time series in practice. Second, we demonstrate how this method can be applied to the analysis of human intracranial epileptic electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings, and to indicate the coupling directions among neural networks. Therefore, this method helps to elucidate the epileptic focus localization.

  10. A Software Risk Analysis Model Using Bayesian Belief Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong Hu; Juhua Chen; Mei Liu; Yang Yun; Junbiao Tang

    2006-01-01

    The uncertainty during the period of software project development often brings huge risks to contractors and clients. Ifwe can find an effective method to predict the cost and quality of software projects based on facts like the project character and two-side cooperating capability at the beginning of the project, we can reduce the risk.Bayesian Belief Network(BBN) is a good tool for analyzing uncertain consequences, but it is difficult to produce precise network structure and conditional probability table. In this paper, we built up network structure by Delphi method for conditional probability table learning, and learn update probability table and nodes' confidence levels continuously according to the application cases, which made the evaluation network have learning abilities, and evaluate the software development risk of organization more accurately. This paper also introduces EM algorithm, which will enhance the ability to produce hidden nodes caused by variant software projects.

  11. Approximation methods for efficient learning of Bayesian networks

    CERN Document Server

    Riggelsen, C

    2008-01-01

    This publication offers and investigates efficient Monte Carlo simulation methods in order to realize a Bayesian approach to approximate learning of Bayesian networks from both complete and incomplete data. For large amounts of incomplete data when Monte Carlo methods are inefficient, approximations are implemented, such that learning remains feasible, albeit non-Bayesian. The topics discussed are: basic concepts about probabilities, graph theory and conditional independence; Bayesian network learning from data; Monte Carlo simulation techniques; and, the concept of incomplete data. In order to provide a coherent treatment of matters, thereby helping the reader to gain a thorough understanding of the whole concept of learning Bayesian networks from (in)complete data, this publication combines in a clarifying way all the issues presented in the papers with previously unpublished work.

  12. Using literature and data to learn Bayesian networks as clinical models of ovarian tumors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antal, P.; Fannes, G.; Timmerman, D.

    2004-01-01

    Thanks to its increasing availability, electronic literature has become a potential source of information for the development of complex Bayesian networks (BN), when human expertise is missing or data is scarce or contains much noise. This opportunity raises the question of how to integrate...... information from free-text resources with statistical data in learning Bayesian networks. Firstly, we report on the collection of prior information resources in the ovarian cancer domain, which includes "kernel" annotations of the domain variables. We introduce methods based on the annotations and literature...... an expert reference and against data scores (the mutual information (MI) and a Bayesian score). Next, we transform the text-based dependency measures into informative text-based priors for Bayesian network structures. Finally, we report the benefit of such informative text-based priors on the performance...

  13. Developing Large-Scale Bayesian Networks by Composition

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In this paper, we investigate the use of Bayesian networks to construct large-scale diagnostic systems. In particular, we consider the development of large-scale...

  14. Designing Resource-Bounded Reasoners using Bayesian Networks

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In this work we are concerned with the conceptual design of large-scale diagnostic and health management systems that use Bayesian networks. While they are...

  15. Macroscopic Models of Clique Tree Growth for Bayesian Networks

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In clique tree clustering, inference consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network. In this paper, we develop an analytical approach to...

  16. Bayesian Networks as a Decision Tool for O&M of Offshore Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2010-01-01

    Costs to operation and maintenance (O&M) of offshore wind turbines are large. This paper presents how influence diagrams can be used to assist in rational decision making for O&M. An influence diagram is a graphical representation of a decision tree based on Bayesian Networks. Bayesian Networks...... offer efficient Bayesian updating of a damage model when imperfect information from inspections/monitoring is available. The extension to an influence diagram offers the calculation of expected utilities for decision alternatives, and can be used to find the optimal strategy among different alternatives...

  17. Node Augmentation Technique in Bayesian Network Evidence Analysis and Marshaling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keselman, Dmitry [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Tompkins, George H [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Leishman, Deborah A [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    Given a Bayesian network, sensitivity analysis is an important activity. This paper begins by describing a network augmentation technique which can simplifY the analysis. Next, we present two techniques which allow the user to determination the probability distribution of a hypothesis node under conditions of uncertain evidence; i.e. the state of an evidence node or nodes is described by a user specified probability distribution. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of three criteria for ranking evidence nodes based on their influence on a hypothesis node. All of these techniques have been used in conjunction with a commercial software package. A Bayesian network based on a directed acyclic graph (DAG) G is a graphical representation of a system of random variables that satisfies the following Markov property: any node (random variable) is independent of its non-descendants given the state of all its parents (Neapolitan, 2004). For simplicities sake, we consider only discrete variables with a finite number of states, though most of the conclusions may be generalized.

  18. Using multiple regression, Bayesian networks and artificial neural networks for prediction of total egg production in European quails based on earlier expressed phenotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felipe, Vivian P S; Silva, Martinho A; Valente, Bruno D; Rosa, Guilherme J M

    2015-04-01

    The prediction of total egg production (TEP) potential in poultry is an important task to aid optimized management decisions in commercial enterprises. The objective of the present study was to compare different modeling approaches for prediction of TEP in meat type quails (Coturnix coturnix coturnix) using phenotypes such as weight, weight gain, egg production and egg quality measurements. Phenotypic data on 30 traits from two lines (L1, n=180; and L2, n=205) of quail were modeled to predict TEP. Prediction models included multiple linear regression and artificial neural network (ANN). Moreover, Bayesian network (BN) and a stepwise approach were used as variable selection methods. BN results showed that TEP is independent from other earlier expressed traits when conditioned on egg production from 35 to 80 days of age (EP1). In addition, the prediction accuracy was much lower when EP1 was not included in the model. The best predictive model was ANN, after feature selection, showing prediction correlations of r=0.792 and r=0.714 for L1 and L2, respectively. In conclusion, machine learning methods may be useful, but reasonable prediction accuracies are obtained only when partial egg production measurements are included in the model.

  19. Using Consensus Bayesian Network to Model the Reactive Oxygen Species Regulatory Pathway

    OpenAIRE

    Liangdong Hu; Limin Wang

    2013-01-01

    Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn bayesian networks...

  20. Smartphone technologies and Bayesian networks to assess shorebird habitat selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeigler, Sara; Thieler, E. Robert; Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Hines, Megan K.; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Karpanty, Sarah M.

    2017-01-01

    Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species’ geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods can impede the generalization of site-based studies. Our objective was to collaborate with natural resource managers to define available nesting habitat for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) throughout their U.S. Atlantic coast distribution from Maine to North Carolina, with a goal of providing science that could inform habitat management in response to sea-level rise. We characterized a data collection and analysis approach as being effective if it provided low-cost collection of standardized habitat-selection data across the species’ breeding range within 1–2 nesting seasons and accurate nesting location predictions. In the method developed, >30 managers and conservation practitioners from government agencies and private organizations used a smartphone application, “iPlover,” to collect data on landcover characteristics at piping plover nest locations and random points on 83 beaches and barrier islands in 2014 and 2015. We analyzed these data with a Bayesian network that predicted the probability a specific combination of landcover variables would be associated with a nesting site. Although we focused on a shorebird, our approach can be modified for other taxa. Results showed that the Bayesian network performed well in predicting habitat availability and confirmed predicted habitat preferences across the Atlantic coast breeding range of the piping plover. We used the Bayesian network to map areas with a high probability of containing nesting habitat on the Rockaway Peninsula in New York, USA, as an example application. Our approach facilitated the collation of evidence-based information on habitat selection

  1. Supporting scalable Bayesian networks using configurable discretizer actuators

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Osunmakinde, I

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian Networks using Configurable Discretizer Actuators Isaac Osunmakinde, SMIEEE and Antoine Bagula Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Sciences, University of Cape Town, 18 University Avenue, Rhodes Gift, 7707 Rondebosch, Cape Town, South... and limited memory space may crash during these operations. This affects business and research deliveries, and may hinder the growing usage of Bayesian networks in industries that keep massive datasets to build intelligent systems. From our practical...

  2. BAYESIAN NETWORKS FOR SUB-GROUPS OF MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    In this study, patients with multiple sclerosis "sub-groups" characteristics in relation to detection of a statistically (SPSS) and are provided in the Bayesian network. The main objective of this study, regarding the appearance of MRI lesions in patients with Multiple Sclerosis information and / or EDSS scores to investigate the possible attack of multiple sclerosis subgroups. Bayesian networks, reflects the level of sub-groups in multiple sclerosis patients. Analyzes were conducted...

  3. Assessment of debris flow hazards using a Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Wan-jie; Zhuang, Da-fang; Jiang, Dong; Pan, Jian-jun; Ren, Hong-yan

    2012-10-01

    Comprehensive assessment of debris flow hazard risk is challenging due to the complexity and uncertainties of various related factors. A reasonable and reliable assessment should be based on sufficient data and realistic approaches. This study presents a novel approach for assessing debris flow hazard risk using BN (Bayesian Network) and domain knowledge. Based on the records of debris flow hazards and geomorphological/environmental data for the Chinese mainland, approaches based on BN, SVM (Support Vector Machine) and ANN (Artificial Neural Network) were compared. BN provided the highest values of hazard detection probability, precision, and AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve). The BN model is useful for mapping and assessing debris flow hazard risk on a national scale.

  4. Bayesian Network Webserver: a comprehensive tool for biological network modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziebarth, Jesse D; Bhattacharya, Anindya; Cui, Yan

    2013-11-01

    The Bayesian Network Webserver (BNW) is a platform for comprehensive network modeling of systems genetics and other biological datasets. It allows users to quickly and seamlessly upload a dataset, learn the structure of the network model that best explains the data and use the model to understand relationships between network variables. Many datasets, including those used to create genetic network models, contain both discrete (e.g. genotype) and continuous (e.g. gene expression traits) variables, and BNW allows for modeling hybrid datasets. Users of BNW can incorporate prior knowledge during structure learning through an easy-to-use structural constraint interface. After structure learning, users are immediately presented with an interactive network model, which can be used to make testable hypotheses about network relationships. BNW, including a downloadable structure learning package, is available at http://compbio.uthsc.edu/BNW. (The BNW interface for adding structural constraints uses HTML5 features that are not supported by current version of Internet Explorer. We suggest using other browsers (e.g. Google Chrome or Mozilla Firefox) when accessing BNW). ycui2@uthsc.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  5. Multiple quantitative trait analysis using bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scutari, Marco; Howell, Phil; Balding, David J; Mackay, Ian

    2014-09-01

    Models for genome-wide prediction and association studies usually target a single phenotypic trait. However, in animal and plant genetics it is common to record information on multiple phenotypes for each individual that will be genotyped. Modeling traits individually disregards the fact that they are most likely associated due to pleiotropy and shared biological basis, thus providing only a partial, confounded view of genetic effects and phenotypic interactions. In this article we use data from a Multiparent Advanced Generation Inter-Cross (MAGIC) winter wheat population to explore Bayesian networks as a convenient and interpretable framework for the simultaneous modeling of multiple quantitative traits. We show that they are equivalent to multivariate genetic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) and that they are competitive with single-trait elastic net and single-trait GBLUP in predictive performance. Finally, we discuss their relationship with other additive-effects models and their advantages in inference and interpretation. MAGIC populations provide an ideal setting for this kind of investigation because the very low population structure and large sample size result in predictive models with good power and limited confounding due to relatedness.

  6. Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

  7. Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

  8. Bayesian network modeling applied to coastal geomorphology: lessons learned from a decade of experimentation and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, N. G.; Thieler, E. R.; Gutierrez, B.; Lentz, E. E.; Zeigler, S. L.; Van Dongeren, A.; Fienen, M. N.

    2016-12-01

    We evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of Bayesian networks that have been used to address scientific and decision-support questions related to coastal geomorphology. We will provide an overview of coastal geomorphology research that has used Bayesian networks and describe what this approach can do and when it works (or fails to work). Over the past decade, Bayesian networks have been formulated to analyze the multi-variate structure and evolution of coastal morphology and associated human and ecological impacts. The approach relates observable system variables to each other by estimating discrete correlations. The resulting Bayesian-networks make predictions that propagate errors, conduct inference via Bayes rule, or both. In scientific applications, the model results are useful for hypothesis testing, using confidence estimates to gage the strength of tests while applications to coastal resource management are aimed at decision-support, where the probabilities of desired ecosystems outcomes are evaluated. The range of Bayesian-network applications to coastal morphology includes emulation of high-resolution wave transformation models to make oceanographic predictions, morphologic response to storms and/or sea-level rise, groundwater response to sea-level rise and morphologic variability, habitat suitability for endangered species, and assessment of monetary or human-life risk associated with storms. All of these examples are based on vast observational data sets, numerical model output, or both. We will discuss the progression of our experiments, which has included testing whether the Bayesian-network approach can be implemented and is appropriate for addressing basic and applied scientific problems and evaluating the hindcast and forecast skill of these implementations. We will present and discuss calibration/validation tests that are used to assess the robustness of Bayesian-network models and we will compare these results to tests of other models. This will

  9. Bayesian inference of structural brain networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinne, Max; Heskes, Tom; Beckmann, Christian F; van Gerven, Marcel A J

    2013-02-01

    Structural brain networks are used to model white-matter connectivity between spatially segregated brain regions. The presence, location and orientation of these white matter tracts can be derived using diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging in combination with probabilistic tractography. Unfortunately, as of yet, none of the existing approaches provide an undisputed way of inferring brain networks from the streamline distributions which tractography produces. State-of-the-art methods rely on an arbitrary threshold or, alternatively, yield weighted results that are difficult to interpret. In this paper, we provide a generative model that explicitly describes how structural brain networks lead to observed streamline distributions. This allows us to draw principled conclusions about brain networks, which we validate using simultaneously acquired resting-state functional MRI data. Inference may be further informed by means of a prior which combines connectivity estimates from multiple subjects. Based on this prior, we obtain networks that significantly improve on the conventional approach.

  10. Hybrid Hot Strip Rolling Force Prediction using a Bayesian Trained Artificial Neural Network and Analytical Models

    OpenAIRE

    Abdelkrim Moussaoui; Yacine Selaimia; Hadj A. Abbassi

    2006-01-01

    The authors discuss the combination of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with analytical models to improve the performance of the prediction model of finishing rolling force in hot strip rolling mill process. The suggested model was implemented using Bayesian Evidence based training algorithm. It was found that the Bayesian Evidence based approach provided a superior and smoother fit to the real rolling mill data. Completely independent set of real rolling data were used to evaluate the capa...

  11. Overlapping community detection in weighted networks via a Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yi; Wang, Xiaolong; Xiang, Xin; Tang, Buzhou; Chen, Qingcai; Fan, Shixi; Bu, Junzhao

    2017-02-01

    Complex networks as a powerful way to represent complex systems have been widely studied during the past several years. One of the most important tasks of complex network analysis is to detect communities embedded in networks. In the real world, weighted networks are very common and may contain overlapping communities where a node is allowed to belong to multiple communities. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian approach, called the Bayesian mixture network (BMN) model, to detect overlapping communities in weighted networks. The advantages of our method are (i) providing soft-partition solutions in weighted networks; (ii) providing soft memberships, which quantify 'how strongly' a node belongs to a community. Experiments on a large number of real and synthetic networks show that our model has the ability in detecting overlapping communities in weighted networks and is competitive with other state-of-the-art models at shedding light on community partition.

  12. A new Bayesian network-based approach to the analysis of sperm motility: application in the study of tench (Tinca tinca) semen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil Anaya, M C; Calle, F; Pérez, C J; Martín-Hidalgo, D; Fallola, C; Bragado, M J; García-Marín, L J; Oropesa, A L

    2015-09-01

    In this study a Bayesian network (BN) has been built for the study of the objective motility of Tinca tinca spermatozoa (spz). Semen from eight 2-year-old sexually mature male tenchs was obtained and motility analyses were performed at 6-17, 23-34 and 40-51 s after activation, using computer-assisted sperm analysis (CASA) software. Motility parameters rendered by CASA were treated with a two-step cluster analysis. Three well-defined sperm subpopulations were identified, varying the proportion of spermatozoa contained in each cluster with time and male. Cluster, cinematic and time variables were used to build the BN to study the probabilistic relationships among variables and how each variable influenced the final sperm classification into one of three predefined clusters. Both network structure and conditional probabilities were calculated based on the collected data set. Results shown that almost all the variables were directly or indirectly related to each other. By doing probabilistic inference we observed that the cluster distribution corresponded to the definition provided by the cluster analysis. Also, velocity and time variables determined the cluster to which each spermatozoon belonged with a high degree of accuracy. Thus, BNs can be applied in the study of sperm motility. The construction of a BN that include fertility data opens a new way to try to clarify the roles of motility and other sperm quality indicators in fertilization.

  13. Probabilistic Forecasting of Drought Events Using Markov Chain- and Bayesian Network-Based Models: A Case Study of an Andean Regulated River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Avilés

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The scarcity of water resources in mountain areas can distort normal water application patterns with among other effects, a negative impact on water supply and river ecosystems. Knowing the probability of droughts might help to optimize a priori the planning and management of the water resources in general and of the Andean watersheds in particular. This study compares Markov chain- (MC and Bayesian network- (BN based models in drought forecasting using a recently developed drought index with respect to their capability to characterize different drought severity states. The copula functions were used to solve the BNs and the ranked probability skill score (RPSS to evaluate the performance of the models. Monthly rainfall and streamflow data of the Chulco River basin, located in Southern Ecuador, were used to assess the performance of both approaches. Global evaluation results revealed that the MC-based models predict better wet and dry periods, and BN-based models generate slightly more accurately forecasts of the most severe droughts. However, evaluation of monthly results reveals that, for each month of the hydrological year, either the MC- or BN-based model provides better forecasts. The presented approach could be of assistance to water managers to ensure that timely decision-making on drought response is undertaken.

  14. A Bayesian Network-Based Approach to Selection of Intervention Points in the Mitogen-Activated Protein Kinase Plant Defense Response Pathway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkat, Priya S; Narayanan, Krishna R; Datta, Aniruddha

    2017-04-01

    An important problem in computational biology is the identification of potential points of intervention that can lead to modified network behavior in a genetic regulatory network. We consider the problem of deducing the effect of individual genes on the behavior of the network in a statistical framework. In this article, we make use of biological information from the literature to develop a Bayesian network and introduce a method to estimate parameters of this network using data that are relevant to the biological phenomena under study. Then, we give a novel approach to select significant nodes in the network using a decision-theoretic approach. The proposed method is applied to the analysis of the mitogen-activated protein kinase pathway in the plant defense response to pathogens. Results from applying the method to experimental data show that the proposed approach is effective in selecting genes that play crucial roles in the biological phenomenon being studied.

  15. Empirical evaluation of scoring functions for Bayesian network model selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhifa; Malone, Brandon; Yuan, Changhe

    2012-01-01

    In this work, we empirically evaluate the capability of various scoring functions of Bayesian networks for recovering true underlying structures. Similar investigations have been carried out before, but they typically relied on approximate learning algorithms to learn the network structures. The suboptimal structures found by the approximation methods have unknown quality and may affect the reliability of their conclusions. Our study uses an optimal algorithm to learn Bayesian network structures from datasets generated from a set of gold standard Bayesian networks. Because all optimal algorithms always learn equivalent networks, this ensures that only the choice of scoring function affects the learned networks. Another shortcoming of the previous studies stems from their use of random synthetic networks as test cases. There is no guarantee that these networks reflect real-world data. We use real-world data to generate our gold-standard structures, so our experimental design more closely approximates real-world situations. A major finding of our study suggests that, in contrast to results reported by several prior works, the Minimum Description Length (MDL) (or equivalently, Bayesian information criterion (BIC)) consistently outperforms other scoring functions such as Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Bayesian Dirichlet equivalence score (BDeu), and factorized normalized maximum likelihood (fNML) in recovering the underlying Bayesian network structures. We believe this finding is a result of using both datasets generated from real-world applications rather than from random processes used in previous studies and learning algorithms to select high-scoring structures rather than selecting random models. Other findings of our study support existing work, e.g., large sample sizes result in learning structures closer to the true underlying structure; the BDeu score is sensitive to the parameter settings; and the fNML performs pretty well on small datasets. We also

  16. A Decomposition Algorithm for Learning Bayesian Network Structures from Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Yifeng; Cordero Hernandez, Jorge

    2008-01-01

    It is a challenging task of learning a large Bayesian network from a small data set. Most conventional structural learning approaches run into the computational as well as the statistical problems. We propose a decomposition algorithm for the structure construction without having to learn...... the complete network. The new learning algorithm firstly finds local components from the data, and then recover the complete network by joining the learned components. We show the empirical performance of the decomposition algorithm in several benchmark networks....

  17. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian Networks for strategic decision support

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Waal, AJ

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on the data format. For example, the EM (Expectation-Maximisation) algorithm (Stuart & Norvig, 2003) may be used to estimate the probabilities of a BN if empirical data are available. Many knowledge engineering techniques exist to elicit and translate...-Verlag, New York (NY). [9] Korb KB & Nicholson AE, 2004, Bayesian artificial intelligence, Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton (FL). [10] Murphy KP, 2002, Dynamic Bayesian networks: Representation, inference and leaning, PhD disser- tation, University...

  18. Prediction of the insulin sensitivity index using Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard; Dethlefsen, Claus

    . In this paper we learn the parameters and structure of several Bayesian networks relating measurements from an oral glucose tolerance test to the insulin sensitivity index determined from an intravenous study on the same individuals. The networks can then be used in prediction of from an oral glucose tolerance...

  19. A Study of VDT Fatigue Based on the Bayesian Network%基于贝叶斯网络的VDT作业疲劳

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘力卓; 李征

    2015-01-01

    VDT,as the representative of modern labor assignment ,can enhance the working efficiency and seriously affect the physical and mental health of the operators .A method of using Bayesian network is put forward to analyze fatigue , establishing fatigue prior Bayesian networks , and then the posterior Bayesian networks by examples .The model is analyzed to find the key factors by using Netica software while analy-zing factors causing fatigue .%在分析VDT作业中引起疲劳的各种影响因素时,提出利用贝叶斯网络分析疲劳的方法,建立疲劳先验贝叶斯网络,通过实证研究建立后验贝叶斯网络,利用Netica软件对后验贝叶斯网络模型进行数据分析解释及推理,以期找到影响疲劳的关键因素。

  20. Bayesian target tracking based on particle filter

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    For being able to deal with the nonlinear or non-Gaussian problems, particle filters have been studied by many researchers. Based on particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) proposal function is applied to Bayesian target tracking. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, the resampling step, etc novel techniques are also introduced into Bayesian target tracking. And the simulation results confirm the improved particle filter with these techniques outperforms the basic one.

  1. Python Environment for Bayesian Learning: Inferring the Structure of Bayesian Networks from Knowledge and Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Abhik; Woolf, Peter

    2009-06-01

    In this paper, we introduce pebl, a Python library and application for learning Bayesian network structure from data and prior knowledge that provides features unmatched by alternative software packages: the ability to use interventional data, flexible specification of structural priors, modeling with hidden variables and exploitation of parallel processing.

  2. Python Environment for Bayesian Learning: Inferring the Structure of Bayesian Networks from Knowledge and Data

    OpenAIRE

    Shah, Abhik; Woolf, Peter

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce pebl, a Python library and application for learning Bayesian network structure from data and prior knowledge that provides features unmatched by alternative software packages: the ability to use interventional data, flexible specification of structural priors, modeling with hidden variables and exploitation of parallel processing.

  3. MODELING INFORMATION SYSTEM AVAILABILITY BY USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Semir Ibrahimović

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Modern information systems are expected to be always-on by providing services to end-users, regardless of time and location. This is particularly important for organizations and industries where information systems support real-time operations and mission-critical applications that need to be available on 24  7  365 basis. Examples of such entities include process industries, telecommunications, healthcare, energy, banking, electronic commerce and a variety of cloud services. This article presents a modified Bayesian Belief Network model for predicting information system availability, introduced initially by Franke, U. and Johnson, P. (in article “Availability of enterprise IT systems – an expert based Bayesian model”. Software Quality Journal 20(2, 369-394, 2012 based on a thorough review of several dimensions of the information system availability, we proposed a modified set of determinants. The model is parameterized by using probability elicitation process with the participation of experts from the financial sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The model validation was performed using Monte Carlo simulation.

  4. Method for Building a Medical Training Simulator with Bayesian Networks: SimDeCS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Cecilia Dias; Fonseca, João Marcelo; Bez, Marta Rosecler; Respício, Ana; Coelho, Helder

    2014-01-01

    Distance education has grown in importance with the advent of the internet. An adequate evaluation of students in this mode is still difficult. Distance tests or occasional on-site exams do not meet the needs of evaluation of the learning process for distance education. Bayesian networks are adequate for simulating several aspects of clinical reasoning. The possibility of integrating them in distance education student evaluation has not yet been explored much. The present work describes a Simulator based on probabilistic networks built to represent knowledge of clinical practice guidelines in Family and Community Medicine. The Bayesian Network, the basis of the simulator, was modeled to playable by the student, to give immediate feedback according to pedagogical strategies adapted to the student according to past performance, and to give a broad evaluation of performance at the end of the game. Simulators structured by Bayesian Networks may become alternatives in the evaluation of students of Medical Distance Education.

  5. 基于贝叶斯网络的装甲目标战术企图推理模型构建%Construction of Models of Armored Targets Tactical Intention Reasoning Based on Bayesian Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    尹光辉; 朱英贵; 汪洋

    2015-01-01

    以贝叶斯网络理论为基础,分析基于贝叶斯网络的目标企图推理框架,从目标状态、目标性质、战场环境和战术特性4个方面提取节点,在分析这4个节点拓扑结构的基础上,构建了装甲目标战术企图推理的贝叶斯网络拓扑结构。%The intention of targets and reasoning frame are analyzed based on Bayesian network. Nodes are extracted from target state,target nature,battlefield environment and tactics features. Based on the analysis of the topological structure of the four nodes,the topological structure of Bayesian network of models of armored targets tactical intention reasoning is constructed.

  6. A methodology for risk analysis based on hybrid Bayesian networks: application to the regasification system of liquefied natural gas onboard a floating storage and regasification unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Marcelo Ramos; Schleder, Adriana Miralles; Droguett, Enrique López

    2014-12-01

    This article presents an iterative six-step risk analysis methodology based on hybrid Bayesian networks (BNs). In typical risk analysis, systems are usually modeled as discrete and Boolean variables with constant failure rates via fault trees. Nevertheless, in many cases, it is not possible to perform an efficient analysis using only discrete and Boolean variables. The approach put forward by the proposed methodology makes use of BNs and incorporates recent developments that facilitate the use of continuous variables whose values may have any probability distributions. Thus, this approach makes the methodology particularly useful in cases where the available data for quantification of hazardous events probabilities are scarce or nonexistent, there is dependence among events, or when nonbinary events are involved. The methodology is applied to the risk analysis of a regasification system of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on board an FSRU (floating, storage, and regasification unit). LNG is becoming an important energy source option and the world's capacity to produce LNG is surging. Large reserves of natural gas exist worldwide, particularly in areas where the resources exceed the demand. Thus, this natural gas is liquefied for shipping and the storage and regasification process usually occurs at onshore plants. However, a new option for LNG storage and regasification has been proposed: the FSRU. As very few FSRUs have been put into operation, relevant failure data on FSRU systems are scarce. The results show the usefulness of the proposed methodology for cases where the risk analysis must be performed under considerable uncertainty.

  7. Uncovering Transcriptional Regulatory Networks by Sparse Bayesian Factor Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Jia; Zhang, Jianqiu(Michelle); Qi, Yuan(Alan); Chen, Yidong; Huang, Yufei

    2010-12-01

    The problem of uncovering transcriptional regulation by transcription factors (TFs) based on microarray data is considered. A novel Bayesian sparse correlated rectified factor model (BSCRFM) is proposed that models the unknown TF protein level activity, the correlated regulations between TFs, and the sparse nature of TF-regulated genes. The model admits prior knowledge from existing database regarding TF-regulated target genes based on a sparse prior and through a developed Gibbs sampling algorithm, a context-specific transcriptional regulatory network specific to the experimental condition of the microarray data can be obtained. The proposed model and the Gibbs sampling algorithm were evaluated on the simulated systems, and results demonstrated the validity and effectiveness of the proposed approach. The proposed model was then applied to the breast cancer microarray data of patients with Estrogen Receptor positive ([InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.]) status and Estrogen Receptor negative ([InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.]) status, respectively.

  8. Uncovering Transcriptional Regulatory Networks by Sparse Bayesian Factor Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Yuan(Alan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The problem of uncovering transcriptional regulation by transcription factors (TFs based on microarray data is considered. A novel Bayesian sparse correlated rectified factor model (BSCRFM is proposed that models the unknown TF protein level activity, the correlated regulations between TFs, and the sparse nature of TF-regulated genes. The model admits prior knowledge from existing database regarding TF-regulated target genes based on a sparse prior and through a developed Gibbs sampling algorithm, a context-specific transcriptional regulatory network specific to the experimental condition of the microarray data can be obtained. The proposed model and the Gibbs sampling algorithm were evaluated on the simulated systems, and results demonstrated the validity and effectiveness of the proposed approach. The proposed model was then applied to the breast cancer microarray data of patients with Estrogen Receptor positive ( status and Estrogen Receptor negative ( status, respectively.

  9. Bayesian networks for fMRI: a primer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumford, Jeanette A; Ramsey, Joseph D

    2014-02-01

    Bayesian network analysis is an attractive approach for studying the functional integration of brain networks, as it includes both the locations of connections between regions of the brain (functional connectivity) and more importantly the direction of the causal relationship between the regions (directed functional connectivity). Further, these approaches are more attractive than other functional connectivity analyses in that they can often operate on larger sets of nodes and run searches over a wide range of candidate networks. An important study by Smith et al. (2011) illustrated that many Bayesian network approaches did not perform well in identifying the directionality of connections in simulated single-subject data. Since then, new Bayesian network approaches have been developed that have overcome the failures in the Smith work. Additionally, an important discovery was made that shows a preprocessing step used in the Smith data puts some of the Bayesian network methods at a disadvantage. This work provides a review of Bayesian network analyses, focusing on the methods used in the Smith work as well as methods developed since 2011 that have improved estimation performance. Importantly, only approaches that have been specifically designed for fMRI data perform well, as they have been tailored to meet the challenges of fMRI data. Although this work does not suggest a single best model, it describes the class of models that perform best and highlights the features of these models that allow them to perform well on fMRI data. Specifically, methods that rely on non-Gaussianity to direct causal relationships in the network perform well.

  10. Quantifying Uncertainty in Brain Network Measures using Bayesian Connectomics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronald Johannes Janssen

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The wiring diagram of the human brain can be described in terms of graph measures that characterize structural regularities. These measures require an estimate of whole-brain structural connectivity for which one may resort to deterministic or thresholded probabilistic streamlining procedures. While these procedures have provided important insights about the characteristics of human brain networks, they ultimately rely on unwarranted assumptions such as those of noise-free data or the use of an arbitrary threshold. Therefore, resulting structural connectivity estimates as well as derived graph measures fail to fully take into account the inherent uncertainty in the structural estimate.In this paper, we illustrate an easy way of obtaining posterior distributions over graph metrics using Bayesian inference. It is shown that this posterior distribution can be used to quantify uncertainty about graph-theoretical measures at the single subject level, thereby providing a more nuanced view of the graph-theoretical properties of human brain connectivity. We refer to this model-based approach to connectivity analysis as Bayesian connectomics.

  11. [Meta analysis of the use of Bayesian networks in breast cancer diagnosis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simões, Priscyla Waleska; Silva, Geraldo Doneda da; Moretti, Gustavo Pasquali; Simon, Carla Sasso; Winnikow, Erik Paul; Nassar, Silvia Modesto; Medeiros, Lidia Rosi; Rosa, Maria Inês

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of Bayesian networks in supporting breast cancer diagnoses. Systematic review and meta-analysis were carried out, including articles and papers published between January 1990 and March 2013. We included prospective and retrospective cross-sectional studies of the accuracy of diagnoses of breast lesions (target conditions) made using Bayesian networks (index test). Four primary studies that included 1,223 breast lesions were analyzed, 89.52% (444/496) of the breast cancer cases and 6.33% (46/727) of the benign lesions were positive based on the Bayesian network analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) for the summary receiver operating characteristic curve (SROC) was 0.97, with a Q* value of 0.92. Using Bayesian networks to diagnose malignant lesions increased the pretest probability of a true positive from 40.03% to 90.05% and decreased the probability of a false negative to 6.44%. Therefore, our results demonstrated that Bayesian networks provide an accurate and non-invasive method to support breast cancer diagnosis.

  12. A new research tool for hybrid Bayesian networks using script language

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wei; Park, Cheol Young; Carvalho, Rommel

    2011-06-01

    While continuous variables become more and more inevitable in Bayesian networks for modeling real-life applications in complex systems, there are not much software tools to support it. Popular commercial Bayesian network tools such as Hugin, and Netica etc., are either expensive or have to discretize continuous variables. In addition, some free programs existing in the literature, commonly known as BNT, GeNie/SMILE, etc, have their own advantages and disadvantages respectively. In this paper, we introduce a newly developed Java tool for model construction and inference for hybrid Bayesian networks. Via the representation power of the script language, this tool can build the hybrid model automatically based on a well defined string that follows the specific grammars. Furthermore, it implements several inference algorithms capable to accommodate hybrid Bayesian networks, including Junction Tree algorithm (JT) for conditional linear Gaussian model (CLG), and Direct Message Passing (DMP) for general hybrid Bayesian networks with CLG structure. We believe this tool will be useful for researchers in the field.

  13. Safety Analysis of Liquid Rocket Engine Using Bayesian Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Hua-wei; YAN Zhi-qiang

    2007-01-01

    Safety analysis for liquid rocket engine has a great meaning for shortening development cycle, saving development expenditure and reducing development risk. The relationship between the structure and component of liquid rocket engine is much more complex, furthermore test data are absent in development phase. Thereby, the uncertainties exist in safety analysis for liquid rocket engine. A safety analysis model integrated with FMEA(failure mode and effect analysis)based on Bayesian networks (BN) is brought forward for liquid rocket engine, which can combine qualitative analysis with quantitative decision. The method has the advantages of fusing multi-information, saving sample amount and having high veracity. An example shows that the method is efficient.

  14. Japanese Dairy Cattle Productivity Analysis using Bayesian Network Model (BNM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iqbal Ahmed

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Japanese Dairy Cattle Productivity Analysis is carried out based on Bayesian Network Model (BNM. Through the experiment with 280 Japanese anestrus Holstein dairy cow, it is found that the estimation for finding out the presence of estrous cycle using BNM represents almost 55% accuracy while considering all samples. On the contrary, almost 73% accurate estimation could be achieved while using suspended likelihood in sample datasets. Moreover, while the proposed BNM model have more confidence then the estimation accuracy is lies in between 93 to 100%. In addition, this research also reveals the optimum factors to find out the presence of estrous cycle among the 270 individual dairy cows. The objective estimation methods using BNM definitely lead a unique idea to overcome the error of subjective estimation of having estrous cycle among these Japanese dairy cattle.

  15. CEO Emotional Intelligence and Firms’ Financial Policies. Bayesian Network Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Ali Azouzi

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to explore the determinants of firms’ financial policies according to the manager’s psychological characteristics. More specifically, it examines the links between emotional intelligence, decision biases and the effectiveness of firms’ financial policies. The article finds that the main cause of an organization’s problems is the CEO’s emotional intelligence level. We introduce an approach based on Bayesian network techniques with a series of semi-directive interviews. The research paper represents an original approach because it characterizes behavioral corporate policy choices in emerging markets. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in the Tunisian context to explore this area of research. Our results show that Tunisian leaders adjust their decisions (on investments and distributions to minimize the risk of loss of compensation or reputation. They opt for decisions that minimize agency costs, transaction costs, and cognitive costs.

  16. Predictive models for pressure ulcers from intensive care unit electronic health records using Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaewprag, Pacharmon; Newton, Cheryl; Vermillion, Brenda; Hyun, Sookyung; Huang, Kun; Machiraju, Raghu

    2017-07-05

    on patients and the high cost for treating pressure ulcers, our Bayesian network based model provides a novel framework for significantly improving the sensitivity of the prediction model. Thus, when the model is deployed in a clinical setting, the caregivers can suitably respond to conditions likely associated with pressure ulcer incidence.

  17. The application of Bayesian networks in natural hazard analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Vogel

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In natural hazards we face several uncertainties due to our lack of knowledge and/or the intrinsic randomness of the underlying natural processes. Nevertheless, deterministic analysis approaches are still widely used in natural hazard assessments, with the pitfall of underestimating the hazard with potentially disastrous consequences. In this paper we show that the Bayesian network approach offers a flexible framework for capturing and expressing a broad range of different uncertainties as those encountered in natural hazard assessments. Although well studied in theory, the application of Bayesian networks on real-world data is often not straightforward and requires specific tailoring and adaption of existing algorithms. We demonstrate by way of three case studies (a ground motion model for a seismic hazard analysis, a flood damage assessment, and a landslide susceptibility study the applicability of Bayesian networks across different domains showcasing various properties and benefits of the Bayesian network framework. We offer suggestions as how to tackle practical problems arising along the way, mainly concentrating on the handling of continuous variables, missing observations, and the interaction of both. We stress that our networks are completely data-driven, although prior domain knowledge can be included if desired.

  18. Distributed Diagnosis in Uncertain Environments Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper presents a distributed Bayesian fault diagnosis scheme for physical systems. Our diagnoser design is based on a procedure for factoring the global system...

  19. Estimating uncertainty and reliability of social network data using Bayesian inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farine, Damien R; Strandburg-Peshkin, Ariana

    2015-09-01

    Social network analysis provides a useful lens through which to view the structure of animal societies, and as a result its use is increasingly widespread. One challenge that many studies of animal social networks face is dealing with limited sample sizes, which introduces the potential for a high level of uncertainty in estimating the rates of association or interaction between individuals. We present a method based on Bayesian inference to incorporate uncertainty into network analyses. We test the reliability of this method at capturing both local and global properties of simulated networks, and compare it to a recently suggested method based on bootstrapping. Our results suggest that Bayesian inference can provide useful information about the underlying certainty in an observed network. When networks are well sampled, observed networks approach the real underlying social structure. However, when sampling is sparse, Bayesian inferred networks can provide realistic uncertainty estimates around edge weights. We also suggest a potential method for estimating the reliability of an observed network given the amount of sampling performed. This paper highlights how relatively simple procedures can be used to estimate uncertainty and reliability in studies using animal social network analysis.

  20. Bayesian网中的独立关系%The Independence Relations in Bayesian Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王飞; 刘大有; 卢奕男; 薛万欣

    2001-01-01

    Bayesian networks are compact representation of joint probabilistic distribution. Independence is soul of Bayesian networks because it enables to save storage space,to reduce computational complexity and to simplify knowledge acquisition and modeling. In this paper,we discuss three kinds of independences in Bayesian networks :conditional independence,context-specific independence and causal influence independence.

  1. Learning Bayesian network classifiers for credit scoring using Markov Chain Monte Carlo search

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baesens, B.; Egmont-Petersen, M.; Castelo, R.; Vanthienen, J.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, we will evaluate the power and usefulness of Bayesian network classifiers for credit scoring. Various types of Bayesian network classifiers will be evaluated and contrasted including unrestricted Bayesian network classifiers learnt using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) search. The exp

  2. Analysis on Wake Vortex Accident Mechanism Based on Bayesian Networks%基于贝叶斯网络的尾流事故机理分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈芳; 孙瑶

    2011-01-01

    For the limitation of fault tree analysis, a fault tree of wake vortex was mapped onto a Bayesian network. By researching, analyzing calculation data, some key accident-causing factors such as the huge density of air traffic, the wrong judgment of space between two aircraft by ATC and the ignoring of the STCA warning, were found out. And then by introducing improved measures into Bayesian networks, the effectiveness of related measures was assessed. The application of Bayesian Network in wake vortex accident analysis has more advantage over fault tree analysis in the aspect of expressing the uncertainty and the identification of the key factors.%针对事故树分析法的局限性,在尾流事故树的基础上,建立贝叶斯网络(BN).运用推理运算对BN进行定量分析,得出:空中交通密度太大、空中交通管制(ATC)间隔判断错误和短期冲突告警(STCA)被忽略是事故的关键致因.将针对致因提出的改进措施引入到BN中,评价相关措施的有效性.应用BN进行尾流事故的机理分析,能够以比逻辑门更好的形式表达变量间的不确定性关系,从而更加方便地找到导致事故发生的关键因素.

  3. Bayesian Network Models for Local Dependence among Observable Outcome Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almond, Russell G.; Mulder, Joris; Hemat, Lisa A.; Yan, Duanli

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian network models offer a large degree of flexibility for modeling dependence among observables (item outcome variables) from the same task, which may be dependent. This article explores four design patterns for modeling locally dependent observations: (a) no context--ignores dependence among observables; (b) compensatory context--introduces…

  4. The application of Bayesian network in Uncertainty management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    颜诗洋

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty management is playing an important role in many fields,especially in AI (artificial intelligence). This paper introduces the concept of probability and the Bayesian Network which are widely used in uncertainty management field.Additionally, two examples are completed and analyzed in the paper.

  5. Model Criticism of Bayesian Networks with Latent Variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, David M.; Mislevy, Robert J.; Almond, Russell G.

    This study investigated statistical methods for identifying errors in Bayesian networks (BN) with latent variables, as found in intelligent cognitive assessments. BN, commonly used in artificial intelligence systems, are promising mechanisms for scoring constructed-response examinations. The success of an intelligent assessment or tutoring system…

  6. A Structure Learning Algorithm for Bayesian Network Using Prior Knowledge

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐俊刚; 赵越; 陈健; 韩超

    2015-01-01

    Learning structure from data is one of the most important fundamental tasks of Bayesian network research. Particularly, learning optional structure of Bayesian network is a non-deterministic polynomial-time (NP) hard problem. To solve this problem, many heuristic algorithms have been proposed, and some of them learn Bayesian network structure with the help of different types of prior knowledge. However, the existing algorithms have some restrictions on the prior knowledge, such as quality restriction and use restriction. This makes it difficult to use the prior knowledge well in these algorithms. In this paper, we introduce the prior knowledge into the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm and propose an algorithm called Constrained MCMC (C-MCMC) algorithm to learn the structure of the Bayesian network. Three types of prior knowledge are defined: existence of parent node, absence of parent node, and distribution knowledge including the conditional probability distribution (CPD) of edges and the probability distribution (PD) of nodes. All of these types of prior knowledge are easily used in this algorithm. We conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method C-MCMC.

  7. Implementation of an Adaptive Learning System Using a Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasuda, Keiji; Kawashima, Hiroyuki; Hata, Yoko; Kimura, Hiroaki

    2015-01-01

    An adaptive learning system is proposed that incorporates a Bayesian network to efficiently gauge learners' understanding at the course-unit level. Also, learners receive content that is adapted to their measured level of understanding. The system works on an iPad via the Edmodo platform. A field experiment using the system in an elementary school…

  8. Nursing Home Care Quality: Insights from a Bayesian Network Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodson, Justin; Jang, Wooseung; Rantz, Marilyn

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research is twofold. The first purpose is to utilize a new methodology (Bayesian networks) for aggregating various quality indicators to measure the overall quality of care in nursing homes. The second is to provide new insight into the relationships that exist among various measures of quality and how such measures…

  9. Nursing Home Care Quality: Insights from a Bayesian Network Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodson, Justin; Jang, Wooseung; Rantz, Marilyn

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research is twofold. The first purpose is to utilize a new methodology (Bayesian networks) for aggregating various quality indicators to measure the overall quality of care in nursing homes. The second is to provide new insight into the relationships that exist among various measures of quality and how such measures…

  10. Applying Bayesian networks in practical customer satisfaction studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jaronski, W.; Bloemer, J.M.M.; Vanhoof, K.; Wets, G.

    2004-01-01

    This chapter presents an application of Bayesian network technology in an empirical customer satisfaction study. The findings of the study should provide insight to the importance of product/service dimensions in terms of the strength of their influence on overall (dis)satisfaction. To this end we a

  11. Bayesian and neural networks for preliminary ship design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, H. B.; Lützen, Marie; Friis-Hansen, Andreas

    2001-01-01

    000 ships is acquired and various methods for derivation of empirical relations are employed. A regression analysis is carried out to fit functions to the data. Further, the data are used to learn Bayesian and neural networks to encode the relations between the characteristics. On the basis...

  12. Using Bayesian neural networks to classify forest scenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vehtari, Aki; Heikkonen, Jukka; Lampinen, Jouko; Juujarvi, Jouni

    1998-10-01

    We present results that compare the performance of Bayesian learning methods for neural networks on the task of classifying forest scenes into trees and background. Classification task is demanding due to the texture richness of the trees, occlusions of the forest scene objects and diverse lighting conditions under operation. This makes it difficult to determine which are optimal image features for the classification. A natural way to proceed is to extract many different types of potentially suitable features, and to evaluate their usefulness in later processing stages. One approach to cope with large number of features is to use Bayesian methods to control the model complexity. Bayesian learning uses a prior on model parameters, combines this with evidence from a training data, and the integrates over the resulting posterior to make predictions. With this method, we can use large networks and many features without fear of overfitting. For this classification task we compare two Bayesian learning methods for multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks: (1) The evidence framework of MacKay uses a Gaussian approximation to the posterior weight distribution and maximizes with respect to hyperparameters. (2) In a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method due to Neal, the posterior distribution of the network parameters is numerically integrated using the MCMC method. As baseline classifiers for comparison we use (3) MLP early stop committee, (4) K-nearest-neighbor and (5) Classification And Regression Tree.

  13. Maritime piracy situation modelling with dynamic Bayesian networks

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dabrowski, James M

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A generative model for modelling maritime vessel behaviour is proposed. The model is a novel variant of the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN). The proposed DBN is in the form of a switching linear dynamic system (SLDS) that has been extended into a...

  14. Exploiting sensitivity analysis in Bayesian networks for consumer satisfaction study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jaronski, W.; Bloemer, J.M.M.; Vanhoof, K.; Wets, G.

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents an application of Bayesian network technology in a empirical customer satisfaction study. The findings of the study should provide insight as to the importance of product/service dimensions in terms of the strength of their influence on overall satisfaction. To this end we apply a

  15. Bayesian and neural networks for preliminary ship design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, H. B.; Lützen, Marie; Friis-Hansen, Andreas

    2001-01-01

    000 ships is acquired and various methods for derivation of empirical relations are employed. A regression analysis is carried out to fit functions to the data. Further, the data are used to learn Bayesian and neural networks to encode the relations between the characteristics. On the basis...

  16. CausalTrail: Testing hypothesis using causal Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stöckel, Daniel; Schmidt, Florian; Trampert, Patrick; Lenhof, Hans-Peter

    2015-01-01

    Summary Causal Bayesian Networks are a special class of Bayesian networks in which the hierarchy directly encodes the causal relationships between the variables. This allows to compute the effect of interventions, which are external changes to the system, caused by e.g. gene knockouts or an administered drug. Whereas numerous packages for constructing causal Bayesian networks are available, hardly any program targeted at downstream analysis exists. In this paper we present CausalTrail, a tool for performing reasoning on causal Bayesian networks using the do-calculus. CausalTrail's features include multiple data import methods, a flexible query language for formulating hypotheses, as well as an intuitive graphical user interface. The program is able to account for missing data and thus can be readily applied in multi-omics settings where it is common that not all measurements are performed for all samples. Availability and Implementation CausalTrail is implemented in C++ using the Boost and Qt5 libraries. It can be obtained from https://github.com/dstoeckel/causaltrail.

  17. Bayesian Inference and Online Learning in Poisson Neuronal Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yanping; Rao, Rajesh P N

    2016-08-01

    Motivated by the growing evidence for Bayesian computation in the brain, we show how a two-layer recurrent network of Poisson neurons can perform both approximate Bayesian inference and learning for any hidden Markov model. The lower-layer sensory neurons receive noisy measurements of hidden world states. The higher-layer neurons infer a posterior distribution over world states via Bayesian inference from inputs generated by sensory neurons. We demonstrate how such a neuronal network with synaptic plasticity can implement a form of Bayesian inference similar to Monte Carlo methods such as particle filtering. Each spike in a higher-layer neuron represents a sample of a particular hidden world state. The spiking activity across the neural population approximates the posterior distribution over hidden states. In this model, variability in spiking is regarded not as a nuisance but as an integral feature that provides the variability necessary for sampling during inference. We demonstrate how the network can learn the likelihood model, as well as the transition probabilities underlying the dynamics, using a Hebbian learning rule. We present results illustrating the ability of the network to perform inference and learning for arbitrary hidden Markov models.

  18. Reasoning under uncertainty in natural language dialogue using Bayesian networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keizer, Simon

    2003-01-01

    In which uncertainty in natural language dialogue is introduced as the central problem in the research described in this thesis. The idea of using of Bayesian networks is hypothesised as a possible solution to this problem. Dialogue acts are presented as the central notion in our approach to dialogu

  19. Robust Learning of Fixed-Structure Bayesian Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Diakonikolas, Ilias; Kane, Daniel; Stewart, Alistair

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the problem of learning Bayesian networks in an agnostic model where an $\\epsilon$-fraction of the samples are adversarially corrupted. Our agnostic learning model is similar to -- in fact, stronger than -- Huber's contamination model in robust statistics. In this work, we study the fully observable Bernoulli case where the structure of the network is given. Even in this basic setting, previous learning algorithms either run in exponential time or lose dimension-dependent facto...

  20. A methodology for applying students' interactive task performance scores from a multimedia-based performance assessment in a Bayesian Network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Klerk, Sebastiaan; Eggen, Theodorus Johannes Hendrikus Maria; Veldkamp, Bernard P.

    2016-01-01

    Computer-based simulations are increasingly being used in educational assessment. In most cases, the simulation-based assessment (SBA) is used for formative assessment, which can be defined as assessment for learning, but as research on the topic continues to grow, possibilities for summative

  1. Bayesian Based Comment Spam Defending Tool

    CERN Document Server

    Nagamalai, Dhinaharan; Lee, Jae Kwang; 10.5121/ijnsa.2010.2420

    2010-01-01

    Spam messes up user's inbox, consumes network resources and spread worms and viruses. Spam is flooding of unsolicited, unwanted e mail. Spam in blogs is called blog spam or comment spam.It is done by posting comments or flooding spams to the services such as blogs, forums,news,email archives and guestbooks. Blog spams generally appears on guestbooks or comment pages where spammers fill a comment box with spam words. In addition to wasting user's time with unwanted comments, spam also consumes a lot of bandwidth. In this paper, we propose a software tool to prevent such blog spams by using Bayesian Algorithm based technique. It is derived from Bayes' Theorem. It gives an output which has a probability that any comment is spam, given that it has certain words in it. With using our past entries and a comment entry, this value is obtained and compared with a threshold value to find if it exceeds the threshold value or not. By using this concept, we developed a software tool to block comment spam. The experimental...

  2. Comparison of Lauritzen-Spiegelhalter and successive restrictions algorithms for computing probability distributions in Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smail, Linda

    2016-06-01

    The basic task of any probabilistic inference system in Bayesian networks is computing the posterior probability distribution for a subset or subsets of random variables, given values or evidence for some other variables from the same Bayesian network. Many methods and algorithms have been developed to exact and approximate inference in Bayesian networks. This work compares two exact inference methods in Bayesian networks-Lauritzen-Spiegelhalter and the successive restrictions algorithm-from the perspective of computational efficiency. The two methods were applied for comparison to a Chest Clinic Bayesian Network. Results indicate that the successive restrictions algorithm shows more computational efficiency than the Lauritzen-Spiegelhalter algorithm.

  3. Robust full Bayesian learning for radial basis networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrieu, C; de Freitas, N; Doucet, A

    2001-10-01

    We propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for radial basis networks. This model treats the model dimension (number of neurons), model parameters, regularization parameters, and noise parameters as unknown random variables. We develop a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to perform the Bayesian computation. We find that the results obtained using this method are not only better than the ones reported previously, but also appear to be robust with respect to the prior specification. In addition, we propose a novel and computationally efficient reversible-jump MCMC simulated annealing algorithm to optimize neural networks. This algorithm enables us to maximize the joint posterior distribution of the network parameters and the number of basis function. It performs a global search in the joint space of the parameters and number of parameters, thereby surmounting the problem of local minima to a large extent. We show that by calibrating the full hierarchical Bayesian prior, we can obtain the classical Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and minimum description length model selection criteria within a penalized likelihood framework. Finally, we present a geometric convergence theorem for the algorithm with homogeneous transition kernel and a convergence theorem for the reversible-jump MCMC simulated annealing method.

  4. Enhancing debris flow modeling parameters integrating Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graf, C.; Stoffel, M.; Grêt-Regamey, A.

    2009-04-01

    Applied debris-flow modeling requires suitably constraint input parameter sets. Depending on the used model, there is a series of parameters to define before running the model. Normally, the data base describing the event, the initiation conditions, the flow behavior, the deposition process and mainly the potential range of possible debris flow events in a certain torrent is limited. There are only some scarce places in the world, where we fortunately can find valuable data sets describing event history of debris flow channels delivering information on spatial and temporal distribution of former flow paths and deposition zones. Tree-ring records in combination with detailed geomorphic mapping for instance provide such data sets over a long time span. Considering the significant loss potential associated with debris-flow disasters, it is crucial that decisions made in regard to hazard mitigation are based on a consistent assessment of the risks. This in turn necessitates a proper assessment of the uncertainties involved in the modeling of the debris-flow frequencies and intensities, the possible run out extent, as well as the estimations of the damage potential. In this study, we link a Bayesian network to a Geographic Information System in order to assess debris-flow risk. We identify the major sources of uncertainty and show the potential of Bayesian inference techniques to improve the debris-flow model. We model the flow paths and deposition zones of a highly active debris-flow channel in the Swiss Alps using the numerical 2-D model RAMMS. Because uncertainties in run-out areas cause large changes in risk estimations, we use the data of flow path and deposition zone information of reconstructed debris-flow events derived from dendrogeomorphological analysis covering more than 400 years to update the input parameters of the RAMMS model. The probabilistic model, which consistently incorporates this available information, can serve as a basis for spatial risk

  5. Bayesian network approach for modeling local failure in lung cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Jung Hun; Craft, Jeffrey; Al-Lozi, Rawan; Vaidya, Manushka; Meng, Yifan; Deasy, Joseph O; Bradley, Jeffrey D; Naqa, Issam El

    2011-01-01

    Locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients suffer from a high local failure rate following radiotherapy. Despite many efforts to develop new dose-volume models for early detection of tumor local failure, there was no reported significant improvement in their application prospectively. Based on recent studies of biomarker proteins’ role in hypoxia and inflammation in predicting tumor response to radiotherapy, we hypothesize that combining physical and biological factors with a suitable framework could improve the overall prediction. To test this hypothesis, we propose a graphical Bayesian network framework for predicting local failure in lung cancer. The proposed approach was tested using two different datasets of locally advanced NSCLC patients treated with radiotherapy. The first dataset was collected retrospectively, which is comprised of clinical and dosimetric variables only. The second dataset was collected prospectively in which in addition to clinical and dosimetric information, blood was drawn from the patients at various time points to extract candidate biomarkers as well. Our preliminary results show that the proposed method can be used as an efficient method to develop predictive models of local failure in these patients and to interpret relationships among the different variables in the models. We also demonstrate the potential use of heterogenous physical and biological variables to improve the model prediction. With the first dataset, we achieved better performance compared with competing Bayesian-based classifiers. With the second dataset, the combined model had a slightly higher performance compared to individual physical and biological models, with the biological variables making the largest contribution. Our preliminary results highlight the potential of the proposed integrated approach for predicting post-radiotherapy local failure in NSCLC patients. PMID:21335651

  6. A Bayesian network approach for causal inferences in pesticide risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesticide risk assessment and management must balance societal benefits and ecosystem protection, based on quantified risks and the strength of the causal linkages between uses of the pesticide and socioeconomic and ecological endpoints of concern. A Bayesian network (BN) is a gr...

  7. Prediction and Assessment of Student Behaviour in Open and Distance Education in Computers Using Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xenos, Michalis

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a methodological approach based on Bayesian Networks for modelling the behaviour of the students of a bachelor course in computers in an Open University that deploys distance educational methods. It describes the structure of the model, its application for modelling the behaviour of student groups in the Informatics Course of…

  8. Improving the structure MCMC sampler for Bayesian networks by introducing a new edge reversal move

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    2008-01-01

    Applications of Bayesian networks in systems biology are computationally demanding due to the large number of model parameters. Conventional MCMC schemes based on proposal moves in structure space tend to be too slow in mixing and convergence, and have recently been superseded by proposal moves in t

  9. Upper-Lower Bounds Candidate Sets Searching Algorithm for Bayesian Network Structure Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangyi Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian network is an important theoretical model in artificial intelligence field and also a powerful tool for processing uncertainty issues. Considering the slow convergence speed of current Bayesian network structure learning algorithms, a fast hybrid learning method is proposed in this paper. We start with further analysis of information provided by low-order conditional independence testing, and then two methods are given for constructing graph model of network, which is theoretically proved to be upper and lower bounds of the structure space of target network, so that candidate sets are given as a result; after that a search and scoring algorithm is operated based on the candidate sets to find the final structure of the network. Simulation results show that the algorithm proposed in this paper is more efficient than similar algorithms with the same learning precision.

  10. 基于贝叶斯网络的网络品牌认知度评价方法%Evaluation Method of Web Brands Recognition Based on Bayesian Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张野; 于湛麟

    2014-01-01

    随着电子商务和网络经济的快速发展,网络品牌的不确定信息越来越多,给消费者的选择造成了很大的困扰。考虑到网购消费者普遍存在的重复购买属性以及网络品牌对消费期望的重要性,有必要考虑网络品牌对消费者购物期望的动态影响,探究一种科学有效的评价体系,完成对网络品牌认知度的评价。贝叶斯网络是获取不确定知识的有效方法。介绍贝叶斯网络的优势与特征,论证基于贝叶斯网络进行网络品牌分类的可行性。实验证明通过贝叶斯网络可以有效地对网络品牌进行分类,获取电子商务系统的所需信息,帮助用户进行网络品牌的选择和购买行为的决策。%With the rapid development of economic commerce and network economy,uncertainty knowledge of web brands becomes more prevalent,selection of consumer gets more and more difficult. Considering the repeat purchase properties for online shopping consumers and the importance of network brand to consumer expectations,so needing to consider the dynamic impact of network brand to consumers shopping expectations,explore a scientific and effective evaluation system,complete the online brand awareness of the evaluation. Bayes-ian network has proved to be an effective method obtaining uncertainty knowledge. Expound Bayesian network's superiority and fea-tures,and illustrate the feasibility of web brands classification based on Bayesian network. The experiment result shows that through Bayesian network can classify the network brands effectively,gain more information from economic commerce system,and provide useful information for users.

  11. Modeling the City Distribution System Reliability with Bayesian Networks to Identify Influence Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Under the increasingly uncertain economic environment, the research on the reliability of urban distribution system has great practical significance for the integration of logistics and supply chain resources. This paper summarizes the factors that affect the city logistics distribution system. Starting from the research of factors that influence the reliability of city distribution system, further construction of city distribution system reliability influence model is built based on Bayesian networks. The complex problem is simplified by using the sub-Bayesian network, and an example is analyzed. In the calculation process, we combined the traditional Bayesian algorithm and the Expectation Maximization (EM algorithm, which made the Bayesian model able to lay a more accurate foundation. The results show that the Bayesian network can accurately reflect the dynamic relationship among the factors affecting the reliability of urban distribution system. Moreover, by changing the prior probability of the node of the cause, the correlation degree between the variables that affect the successful distribution can be calculated. The results have significant practical significance on improving the quality of distribution, the level of distribution, and the efficiency of enterprises.

  12. Bayesian estimation of the network autocorrelation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dittrich, D.; Leenders, R.T.A.J.; Mulder, J.

    2017-01-01

    The network autocorrelation model has been extensively used by researchers interested modeling social influence effects in social networks. The most common inferential method in the model is classical maximum likelihood estimation. This approach, however, has known problems such as negative bias of

  13. Bayesian network-based urban road traffic accidents analysis%基于贝叶斯网络的城市道路交通事故分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵金宝; 邓卫; 王建

    2011-01-01

    以5 190起交通事故数据为分析依据,基于专家知识和数据融合方法建立了城市道路交通事故分析的贝叶斯网络结构.利用服从Dirichlet分布的贝叶斯方法对贝叶斯网络进行参数学习.结合网络模型,应用联合树引擎推断了在车辆类型、事故地点和交通参与者等因素的影响下交通事故类型概率分布.结果表明:客货车等大型车辆发生侧面碰撞的可能性为39.96%,高于其他车型;助力车和自行车在正面碰撞引发事故的可能性分别为39.01%和39.44%;因制动不当引发尾随碰撞事故的可能性为46.12%;转向不当而引发的侧面碰撞可能性为55.72%;随交叉口进口道和出口道数量的增加,发生侧面碰撞的概率会增加.贝叶斯网络模型具有较高的精确度,相关研究可以为城市道路管理部门深入了解交通事故诱发因素和提高城市道路交通系统安全水平提供依据.%On the basis of 5 190 recorded urban road accidents, the topological structure of BN (Bayesian network) is formed with references to expert knowledge and data fusion method. Bayes-ian method is used to complete the process of parameter learning with Dirichlet prior distribution. Under the influences of some factors, such as the vehicle type, accident location, and traffic participant , the probability of different traffic accident type are inferred using junction tree engine based on BN structure and recorded accidents. Inference results indicate that the probability of side collision caused by heavy vehicles is 39. 96% , higher than other vehicle types. The probabilities of frontal collision caused by electric bike and bicycle are 39. 01% and 39. 44% respectively. Brake failure may cause the occurrence of rear-end collision and the inferred probability is 46.12% . Steering failure may cause side collision with a inferred probability of 55.72%. The more the accesses of an intersection, the higher the side collision

  14. Looking for Sustainable Urban Mobility through Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Fusco

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available There is no formalised theory of sustainable urban mobility systems. Observed patterns of urban mobility are often considered unsustainable. But we don’t know what a city with sustainable mobility should look like. It is nevertheless increasingly apparent that the urban mobility system plays an important role in the achievement of the city’s wider sustainability objectives.In this paper we explore the characteristics of sustainable urban mobility systems through the technique of Bayesian networks. At the frontier between multivariate statistics and artificial intelligence, Bayesian networks provide powerful models of causal knowledge in an uncertain context. Using data on urban structure, transportation offer, mobility demand, resource consumption and environmental externalities from seventy-five world cities, we developed a systemic model of the city-transportation-environment interaction in the form of a Bayesian network. The network could then be used to infer the features of the city with sustainable mobility.The Bayesian model indicates that the city with sustainable mobility is most probably a dense city with highly efficient transit and multimodal mobility. It produces high levels of accessibility without relying on a fast road network. The achievement of sustainability objectives for urban mobility is probably compatible with all socioeconomic contexts.By measuring the distance of world cities from the inferred sustainability profile, we finally derive a geography of sustainability for mobility systems. The cities closest to the sustainability profile are in Central Europe as well as in affluent countries of the Far East. Car-dependent American cities are the farthest from the desired sustainability profile.

  15. A Full Bayesian Approach for Boolean Genetic Network Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shengtong; Wong, Raymond K. W.; Lee, Thomas C. M.; Shen, Linghao; Li, Shuo-Yen R.; Fan, Xiaodan

    2014-01-01

    Boolean networks are a simple but efficient model for describing gene regulatory systems. A number of algorithms have been proposed to infer Boolean networks. However, these methods do not take full consideration of the effects of noise and model uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a full Bayesian approach to infer Boolean genetic networks. Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to obtain the posterior samples of both the network structure and the related parameters. In addition to regular link addition and removal moves, which can guarantee the irreducibility of the Markov chain for traversing the whole network space, carefully constructed mixture proposals are used to improve the Markov chain Monte Carlo convergence. Both simulations and a real application on cell-cycle data show that our method is more powerful than existing methods for the inference of both the topology and logic relations of the Boolean network from observed data. PMID:25551820

  16. A full bayesian approach for boolean genetic network inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengtong Han

    Full Text Available Boolean networks are a simple but efficient model for describing gene regulatory systems. A number of algorithms have been proposed to infer Boolean networks. However, these methods do not take full consideration of the effects of noise and model uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a full Bayesian approach to infer Boolean genetic networks. Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to obtain the posterior samples of both the network structure and the related parameters. In addition to regular link addition and removal moves, which can guarantee the irreducibility of the Markov chain for traversing the whole network space, carefully constructed mixture proposals are used to improve the Markov chain Monte Carlo convergence. Both simulations and a real application on cell-cycle data show that our method is more powerful than existing methods for the inference of both the topology and logic relations of the Boolean network from observed data.

  17. Predicting Software Suitability Using a Bayesian Belief Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaver, Justin M.; Schiavone, Guy A.; Berrios, Joseph S.

    2005-01-01

    The ability to reliably predict the end quality of software under development presents a significant advantage for a development team. It provides an opportunity to address high risk components earlier in the development life cycle, when their impact is minimized. This research proposes a model that captures the evolution of the quality of a software product, and provides reliable forecasts of the end quality of the software being developed in terms of product suitability. Development team skill, software process maturity, and software problem complexity are hypothesized as driving factors of software product quality. The cause-effect relationships between these factors and the elements of software suitability are modeled using Bayesian Belief Networks, a machine learning method. This research presents a Bayesian Network for software quality, and the techniques used to quantify the factors that influence and represent software quality. The developed model is found to be effective in predicting the end product quality of small-scale software development efforts.

  18. Nuclear charge radii: Density functional theory meets Bayesian neural networks

    CERN Document Server

    Utama, Raditya; Piekarewicz, Jorge

    2016-01-01

    The distribution of electric charge in atomic nuclei is fundamental to our understanding of the complex nuclear dynamics and a quintessential observable to validate nuclear structure models. We explore a novel approach that combines sophisticated models of nuclear structure with Bayesian neural networks (BNN) to generate predictions for the charge radii of thousands of nuclei throughout the nuclear chart. A class of relativistic energy density functionals is used to provide robust predictions for nuclear charge radii. In turn, these predictions are refined through Bayesian learning for a neural network that is trained using residuals between theoretical predictions and the experimental data. Although predictions obtained with density functional theory provide a fairly good description of experiment, our results show significant improvement (better than 40%) after BNN refinement. Moreover, these improved results for nuclear charge radii are supplemented with theoretical error bars. We have successfully demonst...

  19. Distinguishing Parkinson’s disease from atypical parkinsonian syndromes using PET data and a computer system based on support vector machines and Bayesian networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fermín eSegovia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Differentiating between Parkinson's disease (PD and atypical parkinsonian syndromes (APS is still a challenge, specially at early stages when the patients show similar symptoms. During last years, several computer systems have been proposed in order to improve the diagnosis of PD, but their accuracy is still limited. In this work we demonstrate a full automatic computer system to assist the diagnosis of PD using 18F-DMFP PET data. First, a few regions of interest are selected by means of a two-sample t-test. The accuracy of the selected regions to separate PD from APS patients is then computed using a support vector machine classifier. The accuracy values are finally used to train a Bayesian network that can be used to predict the class of new unseen data. This methodology was evaluated using a database with 87 neuroimages, achieving accuracy rates over 78%. A fair comparison with other similar approaches is also provided.

  20. Partial Order MCMC for Structure Discovery in Bayesian Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Niinimaki, Teppo; Koivisto, Mikko

    2012-01-01

    We present a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating posterior probabilities of structural features in Bayesian networks. The method draws samples from the posterior distribution of partial orders on the nodes; for each sampled partial order, the conditional probabilities of interest are computed exactly. We give both analytical and empirical results that suggest the superiority of the new method compared to previous methods, which sample either directed acyclic graphs or linear orders on the nodes.

  1. Bayesian network based structural ductility demand analysis%基于贝叶斯网的结构延性需求分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    易伟建; 李浩

    2009-01-01

    Ductility demand probabilistic analysis is important for performance based seismic evaluation and design. Nonlinear time history analysis of SDOF with various yield strength coefficients and periods are performed using 1918 earthquake ground motion records to obtain simplified formula for ductility demand through curve fitting. Considering the insufficiency of PGA for being as single intensity measure, a new parameter is constructed through regression analysis to quantify the effect of earthquake spectrum characteristics on the ductility demand. With PGA and the new parameter being as IM vector, the relationship of ductility demand probabilistic with given earthquake intensity is formulated, and a Bayesian network is established. Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is introduced to update the ductility demand posterior probabilistic distribution with given observation of earthquake intensity, thus localizing the calculation of the ductility demand. Examples analyze how the parameters of earthquake intensity and the condition of given observations affect the calculation result.%概率延性需求分析是基于性能的结构抗震评估与设计中的重要一环.根据搜集到的1918条地震记录,对具有不同屈服水平系数及周期的单自由度体系作了弹塑性时程分析,通过拟合得到简化的延性需求计算公式;针对单一地面峰值加速度作为地震强度指标的不足,根据回归分析构造一个新的参数用于描述地震频谱特性对延性需求的影响;以地面峰值加速度和此新参数作为地震强度指标向量,建立给定地震强度条件下结构延性需求的概率关系,并形成相应的贝叶斯网.引进马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗模拟方法,用于更新给定地震强度观察值条件下延性需求的后验分布,从而实现延性需求计算的本地化.通过算例分析了各地震强度参量、给定观测值条件下对延性需求计算结果的影响.

  2. A native Bayesian classifier based routing protocol for VANETS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Zhenshan; Zhou, Keqin; Zhang, Wenbo; Gong, Xiaolei

    2016-12-01

    Geographic routing protocols are one of the most hot research areas in VANET (Vehicular Ad-hoc Network). However, there are few routing protocols can take both the transmission efficient and the usage of ratio into account. As we have noticed, different messages in VANET may ask different quality of service. So we raised a Native Bayesian Classifier based routing protocol (Naive Bayesian Classifier-Greedy, NBC-Greedy), which can classify and transmit different messages by its emergency degree. As a result, we can balance the transmission efficient and the usage of ratio with this protocol. Based on Matlab simulation, we can draw a conclusion that NBC-Greedy is more efficient and stable than LR-Greedy and GPSR.

  3. Flood alert system based on bayesian techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulliver, Z.; Herrero, J.; Viesca, C.; Polo, M. J.

    2012-04-01

    The problem of floods in the Mediterranean regions is closely linked to the occurrence of torrential storms in dry regions, where even the water supply relies on adequate water management. Like other Mediterranean basins in Southern Spain, the Guadalhorce River Basin is a medium sized watershed (3856 km2) where recurrent yearly floods occur , mainly in autumn and spring periods, driven by cold front phenomena. The torrential character of the precipitation in such small basins, with a concentration time of less than 12 hours, produces flash flood events with catastrophic effects over the city of Malaga (600000 inhabitants). From this fact arises the need for specific alert tools which can forecast these kinds of phenomena. Bayesian networks (BN) have been emerging in the last decade as a very useful and reliable computational tool for water resources and for the decision making process. The joint use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and BN have served us to recognize and simulate the two different types of hydrological behaviour in the basin: natural and regulated. This led to the establishment of causal relationships between precipitation, discharge from upstream reservoirs, and water levels at a gauging station. It was seen that a recurrent ANN model working at an hourly scale, considering daily precipitation and the two previous hourly values of reservoir discharge and water level, could provide R2 values of 0.86. BN's results slightly improve this fit, but contribute with uncertainty to the prediction. In our current work to Design a Weather Warning Service based on Bayesian techniques the first steps were carried out through an analysis of the correlations between the water level and rainfall at certain representative points in the basin, along with the upstream reservoir discharge. The lower correlation found between precipitation and water level emphasizes the highly regulated condition of the stream. The autocorrelations of the variables were also

  4. Modeling Land-Use Decision Behavior with Bayesian Belief Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inge Aalders

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability to incorporate and manage the different drivers of land-use change in a modeling process is one of the key challenges because they are complex and are both quantitative and qualitative in nature. This paper uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN to incorporate characteristics of land managers in the modeling process and to enhance our understanding of land-use change based on the limited and disparate sources of information. One of the two models based on spatial data represented land managers in the form of a quantitative variable, the area of individual holdings, whereas the other model included qualitative data from a survey of land managers. Random samples from the spatial data provided evidence of the relationship between the different variables, which I used to develop the BBN structure. The model was tested for four different posterior probability distributions, and results showed that the trained and learned models are better at predicting land use than the uniform and random models. The inference from the model demonstrated the constraints that biophysical characteristics impose on land managers; for older land managers without heirs, there is a higher probability of the land use being arable agriculture. The results show the benefits of incorporating a more complex notion of land managers in land-use models, and of using different empirical data sources in the modeling process. Future research should focus on incorporating more complex social processes into the modeling structure, as well as incorporating spatio-temporal dynamics in a BBN.

  5. Application of Bayesian Networks for Estimation of Individual Psychological Characteristics

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2017-07-19

    In this paper we apply Bayesian networks for developing more accurate final overall estimations of psychological characteristics of an individual, based on psychological test results. Psychological tests which identify how much an individual possesses a certain factor are very popular and quite common in the modern world. We call this value for a given factor -- the final overall estimation. Examples of factors could be stress resistance, the readiness to take a risk, the ability to concentrate on certain complicated work and many others. An accurate qualitative and comprehensive assessment of human potential is one of the most important challenges in any company or collective. The most common way of studying psychological characteristics of each single person is testing. Psychologists and sociologists are constantly working on improvement of the quality of their tests. Despite serious work, done by psychologists, the questions in tests often do not produce enough feedback due to the use of relatively poor estimation systems. The overall estimation is usually based on personal experiences and the subjective perception of a psychologist or a group of psychologists about the investigated psychological personality factors.

  6. Gene regulatory network modeling via global optimization of high-order dynamic Bayesian network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuan Nguyen

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN is among the mainstream approaches for modeling various biological networks, including the gene regulatory network (GRN. Most current methods for learning DBN employ either local search such as hill-climbing, or a meta stochastic global optimization framework such as genetic algorithm or simulated annealing, which are only able to locate sub-optimal solutions. Further, current DBN applications have essentially been limited to small sized networks. Results To overcome the above difficulties, we introduce here a deterministic global optimization based DBN approach for reverse engineering genetic networks from time course gene expression data. For such DBN models that consist only of inter time slice arcs, we show that there exists a polynomial time algorithm for learning the globally optimal network structure. The proposed approach, named GlobalMIT+, employs the recently proposed information theoretic scoring metric named mutual information test (MIT. GlobalMIT+ is able to learn high-order time delayed genetic interactions, which are common to most biological systems. Evaluation of the approach using both synthetic and real data sets, including a 733 cyanobacterial gene expression data set, shows significantly improved performance over other techniques. Conclusions Our studies demonstrate that deterministic global optimization approaches can infer large scale genetic networks.

  7. BAYESIAN NETWORKS FOR SUB-GROUPS OF MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeliz KARACA

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, patients with multiple sclerosis "sub-groups" characteristics in relation to detection of a statistically (SPSS and are provided in the Bayesian network. The main objective of this study, regarding the appearance of MRI lesions in patients with Multiple Sclerosis information and / or EDSS scores to investigate the possible attack of multiple sclerosis subgroups. Bayesian networks, reflects the level of sub-groups in multiple sclerosis patients. Analyzes were conducted to determine the change of these properties. MR images of the input data is discussed for the MS patients, the sub-groups of MS, "Remitting Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis", "Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis" with their patients' clinical brain MR images, brain stem, and the Upper Cervical Regions of the corpus callosum-periventricular lesions created in the information. Multiple Sclerosis is owned by the input data is created correctly identify disease subgroups of MS patients for the number of lesions in MR images and MR image of the three regions for the year for which the information used in the EDSS score. Of MS is RRMS, SPMS correctly identify sub-groups of the brain with Brain Stem, and upper cervical regions of the corpus callosum-periventricular lesions in these three points for the region and / or EDSS score information can be emphasized by using the Bayesian networks play an important role in the analysis.

  8. Understanding disease processes by partitioned dynamic Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bueno, Marcos L P; Hommersom, Arjen; Lucas, Peter J F; Lappenschaar, Martijn; Janzing, Joost G E

    2016-06-01

    For many clinical problems in patients the underlying pathophysiological process changes in the course of time as a result of medical interventions. In model building for such problems, the typical scarcity of data in a clinical setting has been often compensated by utilizing time homogeneous models, such as dynamic Bayesian networks. As a consequence, the specificities of the underlying process are lost in the obtained models. In the current work, we propose the new concept of partitioned dynamic Bayesian networks to capture distribution regime changes, i.e. time non-homogeneity, benefiting from an intuitive and compact representation with the solid theoretical foundation of Bayesian network models. In order to balance specificity and simplicity in real-world scenarios, we propose a heuristic algorithm to search and learn these non-homogeneous models taking into account a preference for less complex models. An extensive set of experiments were ran, in which simulating experiments show that the heuristic algorithm was capable of constructing well-suited solutions, in terms of goodness of fit and statistical distance to the original distributions, in consonance with the underlying processes that generated data, whether it was homogeneous or non-homogeneous. Finally, a study case on psychotic depression was conducted using non-homogeneous models learned by the heuristic, leading to insightful answers for clinically relevant questions concerning the dynamics of this mental disorder.

  9. Comparison of a Bayesian Network with a Logistic Regression Model to Forecast IgA Nephropathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michel Ducher

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Models are increasingly used in clinical practice to improve the accuracy of diagnosis. The aim of our work was to compare a Bayesian network to logistic regression to forecast IgA nephropathy (IgAN from simple clinical and biological criteria. Retrospectively, we pooled the results of all biopsies (n=155 performed by nephrologists in a specialist clinical facility between 2002 and 2009. Two groups were constituted at random. The first subgroup was used to determine the parameters of the models adjusted to data by logistic regression or Bayesian network, and the second was used to compare the performances of the models using receiver operating characteristics (ROC curves. IgAN was found (on pathology in 44 patients. Areas under the ROC curves provided by both methods were highly significant but not different from each other. Based on the highest Youden indices, sensitivity reached (100% versus 67% and specificity (73% versus 95% using the Bayesian network and logistic regression, respectively. A Bayesian network is at least as efficient as logistic regression to estimate the probability of a patient suffering IgAN, using simple clinical and biological data obtained during consultation.

  10. Comparison of a Bayesian network with a logistic regression model to forecast IgA nephropathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducher, Michel; Kalbacher, Emilie; Combarnous, François; Finaz de Vilaine, Jérome; McGregor, Brigitte; Fouque, Denis; Fauvel, Jean Pierre

    2013-01-01

    Models are increasingly used in clinical practice to improve the accuracy of diagnosis. The aim of our work was to compare a Bayesian network to logistic regression to forecast IgA nephropathy (IgAN) from simple clinical and biological criteria. Retrospectively, we pooled the results of all biopsies (n = 155) performed by nephrologists in a specialist clinical facility between 2002 and 2009. Two groups were constituted at random. The first subgroup was used to determine the parameters of the models adjusted to data by logistic regression or Bayesian network, and the second was used to compare the performances of the models using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. IgAN was found (on pathology) in 44 patients. Areas under the ROC curves provided by both methods were highly significant but not different from each other. Based on the highest Youden indices, sensitivity reached (100% versus 67%) and specificity (73% versus 95%) using the Bayesian network and logistic regression, respectively. A Bayesian network is at least as efficient as logistic regression to estimate the probability of a patient suffering IgAN, using simple clinical and biological data obtained during consultation.

  11. Bayesian inference of structural brain networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hinne, M.; Heskes, T.; Beckmann, C.F.; Gerven, van M.A.J.

    2013-01-01

    Structural brain networks are used to model white-matter connectivity between spatially segregated brain regions. The presence, location and orientation of these white matter tracts can be derived using diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging in combination with probabilistic tractography. Unf

  12. Bayesian estimation inherent in a Mexican-hat-type neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takiyama, Ken

    2016-05-01

    Brain functions, such as perception, motor control and learning, and decision making, have been explained based on a Bayesian framework, i.e., to decrease the effects of noise inherent in the human nervous system or external environment, our brain integrates sensory and a priori information in a Bayesian optimal manner. However, it remains unclear how Bayesian computations are implemented in the brain. Herein, I address this issue by analyzing a Mexican-hat-type neural network, which was used as a model of the visual cortex, motor cortex, and prefrontal cortex. I analytically demonstrate that the dynamics of an order parameter in the model corresponds exactly to a variational inference of a linear Gaussian state-space model, a Bayesian estimation, when the strength of recurrent synaptic connectivity is appropriately stronger than that of an external stimulus, a plausible condition in the brain. This exact correspondence can reveal the relationship between the parameters in the Bayesian estimation and those in the neural network, providing insight for understanding brain functions.

  13. Bayesian estimation inherent in a Mexican-hat-type neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takiyama, Ken

    2016-05-01

    Brain functions, such as perception, motor control and learning, and decision making, have been explained based on a Bayesian framework, i.e., to decrease the effects of noise inherent in the human nervous system or external environment, our brain integrates sensory and a priori information in a Bayesian optimal manner. However, it remains unclear how Bayesian computations are implemented in the brain. Herein, I address this issue by analyzing a Mexican-hat-type neural network, which was used as a model of the visual cortex, motor cortex, and prefrontal cortex. I analytically demonstrate that the dynamics of an order parameter in the model corresponds exactly to a variational inference of a linear Gaussian state-space model, a Bayesian estimation, when the strength of recurrent synaptic connectivity is appropriately stronger than that of an external stimulus, a plausible condition in the brain. This exact correspondence can reveal the relationship between the parameters in the Bayesian estimation and those in the neural network, providing insight for understanding brain functions.

  14. Structural prediction of dynamic Bayesian network with partial prior information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maiti, Aniruddha; Reddy, Ramakanth; Mukherjee, Anirban

    2015-01-01

    The prediction of the structure of a hidden dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) from a noisy dataset is an important and challenging task. This work presents a generalized framework to infer the DBN network structure with partial prior information. In the proposed framework, the partial information about the network structure is provided in the form of prior. The proposed method makes use of the prior information regarding the presence and as well as absence of some of the edges. Using the noisy dataset and partial prior information, this method is able to infer nearly accurate structure of the network. The proposed method is validated using simulated datasets. In addition, two real biological datasets are used to infer hidden biological interaction networks.

  15. Research on Risk Management of Engineering Quality Based on Bayesian Network%基于贝叶斯网络的工程项目质量风险管理

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡书香; 莫俊文; 赵延龙

    2013-01-01

    提出基于贝叶斯网络的工程项目质量风险管理.首先,对工程质量形成过程中的风险因素进行识别,其次进行风险分析确定主要风险因素,构建贝叶斯网络结构.依据问卷调查中得到的数据和专家经验确定贝叶斯网络中的参数,以此为基础对工程项目质量进行风险评估、风险诊断,分析确定影响工程质量的关键风险因素.最后,依据分析得到的结果进行风险控制.%The quality of project is lifeblood of entire project, and there are a lot of risks in formation of quality. In order to effectively manage engineer quality risk, this paper proposes the quality risk management model based on Bayesian network. Firstly, risk factors in formation of the quality are identified, then risks are analyzed to identify the main risk factors and to build Bayesian network structure. According to survey data and expert experience, the parameters of Bayesian network, and based on these, the risk assessment and risk diagnostic for the quality of the project are carried out and to determine the key risk factors that affect quality of project are determined. Finally, the risk is controlled in accordance with the result

  16. SAGA: a hybrid search algorithm for Bayesian Network structure learning of transcriptional regulatory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adabor, Emmanuel S; Acquaah-Mensah, George K; Oduro, Francis T

    2015-02-01

    Bayesian Networks have been used for the inference of transcriptional regulatory relationships among genes, and are valuable for obtaining biological insights. However, finding optimal Bayesian Network (BN) is NP-hard. Thus, heuristic approaches have sought to effectively solve this problem. In this work, we develop a hybrid search method combining Simulated Annealing with a Greedy Algorithm (SAGA). SAGA explores most of the search space by undergoing a two-phase search: first with a Simulated Annealing search and then with a Greedy search. Three sets of background-corrected and normalized microarray datasets were used to test the algorithm. BN structure learning was also conducted using the datasets, and other established search methods as implemented in BANJO (Bayesian Network Inference with Java Objects). The Bayesian Dirichlet Equivalence (BDe) metric was used to score the networks produced with SAGA. SAGA predicted transcriptional regulatory relationships among genes in networks that evaluated to higher BDe scores with high sensitivities and specificities. Thus, the proposed method competes well with existing search algorithms for Bayesian Network structure learning of transcriptional regulatory networks.

  17. Unifying acute stroke treatment guidelines for a Bayesian belief network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Alexa; Arnold, Corey W; El-Saden, Suzie; Liebeskind, David S; Andrada, Lewellyn; Saver, Jeffrey; Bui, Alex A T

    2013-01-01

    With the large number of clinical practice guidelines available, there is an increasing need for a comprehensive unified model for acute ischemic stroke treatment to assist in clinical decision making. We present a unified treatment model derived through review of existing clinical practice guidelines, meta-analyses, and clinical trials. Using logic from the treatment model, a Bayesian belief network was defined and fitted to data from our institution's observational quality improvement database for acute stroke patients. The resulting network validates known relationships between variables, treatment decisions and outcomes, and enables the exploration of new correlative relationships not defined in current guidelines.

  18. Bridging groundwater models and decision support with a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fienen, Michael N.; Masterson, John P.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2013-01-01

    Resource managers need to make decisions to plan for future environmental conditions, particularly sea level rise, in the face of substantial uncertainty. Many interacting processes factor in to the decisions they face. Advances in process models and the quantification of uncertainty have made models a valuable tool for this purpose. Long-simulation runtimes and, often, numerical instability make linking process models impractical in many cases. A method for emulating the important connections between model input and forecasts, while propagating uncertainty, has the potential to provide a bridge between complicated numerical process models and the efficiency and stability needed for decision making. We explore this using a Bayesian network (BN) to emulate a groundwater flow model. We expand on previous approaches to validating a BN by calculating forecasting skill using cross validation of a groundwater model of Assateague Island in Virginia and Maryland, USA. This BN emulation was shown to capture the important groundwater-flow characteristics and uncertainty of the groundwater system because of its connection to island morphology and sea level. Forecast power metrics associated with the validation of multiple alternative BN designs guided the selection of an optimal level of BN complexity. Assateague island is an ideal test case for exploring a forecasting tool based on current conditions because the unique hydrogeomorphological variability of the island includes a range of settings indicative of past, current, and future conditions. The resulting BN is a valuable tool for exploring the response of groundwater conditions to sea level rise in decision support.

  19. A Tractable Method for Measuring Nanomaterial Risk Using Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Finbarr; Sheehan, Barry; Mullins, Martin; Bouwmeester, Hans; Marvin, Hans J. P.; Bouzembrak, Yamine; Costa, Anna L.; Das, Rasel; Stone, Vicki; Tofail, Syed A. M.

    2016-11-01

    While control banding has been identified as a suitable framework for the evaluation and the determination of potential human health risks associated with exposure to nanomaterials (NMs), the approach currently lacks any implementation that enjoys widespread support. Large inconsistencies in characterisation data, toxicological measurements and exposure scenarios make it difficult to map and compare the risk associated with NMs based on physicochemical data, concentration and exposure route. Here we demonstrate the use of Bayesian networks as a reliable tool for NM risk estimation. This tool is tractable, accessible and scalable. Most importantly, it captures a broad span of data types, from complete, high quality data sets through to data sets with missing data and/or values with a relatively high spread of probability distribution. The tool is able to learn iteratively in order to further refine forecasts as the quality of data available improves. We demonstrate how this risk measurement approach works on NMs with varying degrees of risk potential, namely, carbon nanotubes, silver and titanium dioxide. The results afford even non-experts an accurate picture of the occupational risk probabilities associated with these NMs and, in doing so, demonstrated how NM risk can be evaluated into a tractable, quantitative risk comparator.

  20. CEO emotional bias and investment decision, Bayesian network method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarboui Anis

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the determinants of firms’ investment introducing a behavioral perspective that has received little attention in corporate finance literature. The following central hypothesis emerges from a set of recently developed theories: Investment decisions are influenced not only by their fundamentals but also depend on some other factors. One factor is the biasness of any CEO to their investment, biasness depends on the cognition and emotions, because some leaders use them as heuristic for the investment decision instead of fundamentals. This paper shows how CEO emotional bias (optimism, loss aversion and overconfidence affects the investment decisions. The proposed model of this paper uses Bayesian Network Method to examine this relationship. Emotional bias has been measured by means of a questionnaire comprising several items. As for the selected sample, it has been composed of some 100 Tunisian executives. Our results have revealed that the behavioral analysis of investment decision implies leader affected by behavioral biases (optimism, loss aversion, and overconfidence adjusts its investment choices based on their ability to assess alternatives (optimism and overconfidence and risk perception (loss aversion to create of shareholder value and ensure its place at the head of the management team.

  1. CEO emotional bias and dividend policy: Bayesian network method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azouzi Mohamed Ali

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper assumes that managers, investors, or both behave irrationally. In addition, even though scholars have investigated behavioral irrationality from three angles, investor sentiment, investor biases and managerial biases, we focus on the relationship between one of the managerial biases, overconfidence and dividend policy. Previous research investigating the relationship between overconfidence and financial decisions has studied investment, financing decisions and firm values. However, there are only a few exceptions to examine how a managerial emotional bias (optimism, loss aversion and overconfidence affects dividend policies. This stream of research contends whether to distribute dividends or not depends on how managers perceive of the company’s future. I will use Bayesian network method to examine this relation. Emotional bias has been measured by means of a questionnaire comprising several items. As for the selected sample, it has been composed of some100 Tunisian executives. Our results have revealed that leader affected by behavioral biases (optimism, loss aversion, and overconfidence adjusts its dividend policy choices based on their ability to assess alternatives (optimism and overconfidence and risk perception (loss aversion to create of shareholder value and ensure its place at the head of the management team.

  2. Evolving a Bayesian Classifier for ECG-based Age Classification in Medical Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiggins, M; Saad, A; Litt, B; Vachtsevanos, G

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To classify patients by age based upon information extracted from their electro-cardiograms (ECGs). To develop and compare the performance of Bayesian classifiers. METHODS AND MATERIAL: We present a methodology for classifying patients according to statistical features extracted from their ECG signals using a genetically evolved Bayesian network classifier. Continuous signal feature variables are converted to a discrete symbolic form by thresholding, to lower the dimensionality of the signal. This simplifies calculation of conditional probability tables for the classifier, and makes the tables smaller. Two methods of network discovery from data were developed and compared: the first using a greedy hill-climb search and the second employed evolutionary computing using a genetic algorithm (GA). RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The evolved Bayesian network performed better (86.25% AUC) than both the one developed using the greedy algorithm (65% AUC) and the naïve Bayesian classifier (84.75% AUC). The methodology for evolving the Bayesian classifier can be used to evolve Bayesian networks in general thereby identifying the dependencies among the variables of interest. Those dependencies are assumed to be non-existent by naïve Bayesian classifiers. Such a classifier can then be used for medical applications for diagnosis and prediction purposes.

  3. Bayesian networks: a powerful tool for systems biology study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiu-Jie WANG

    2010-01-01

    @@ Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010The wide application of omics research approaches caused a burst of biological data in the past decade, and also promoted the growth of systems biology, a research field that studies biological questions from a genome-wide point of view. One feature of systems biology study is to integrate and identify. Not only experiments are carried out at whole-genome scales, but also data from various resources, such as genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics,and metabolics data, need to be integrated to identify correlations among targeted entities. Therefore, plenty amounts of experimental data, robust statistical methods, and reliable network construction models are indispensable for systems biology study. Among the available network construction models, Bayesian network is considered as one of the most effective methods available so far for biological network predictions (Pe'er, 2005).

  4. Bayesian Computation Methods for Inferring Regulatory Network Models Using Biomedical Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Tianhai

    2016-01-01

    The rapid advancement of high-throughput technologies provides huge amounts of information for gene expression and protein activity in the genome-wide scale. The availability of genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics dataset gives an unprecedented opportunity to study detailed molecular regulations that is very important to precision medicine. However, it is still a significant challenge to design effective and efficient method to infer the network structure and dynamic property of regulatory networks. In recent years a number of computing methods have been designed to explore the regulatory mechanisms as well as estimate unknown model parameters. Among them, the Bayesian inference method can combine both prior knowledge and experimental data to generate updated information regarding the regulatory mechanisms. This chapter gives a brief review for Bayesian statistical methods that are used to infer the network structure and estimate model parameters based on experimental data.

  5. A self-growing Bayesian network classifier for online learning of human motion patterns

    OpenAIRE

    Yung, NHC; Chen, Z

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a new self-growing Bayesian network classifier for online learning of human motion patterns (HMPs) in dynamically changing environments. The proposed classifier is designed to represent HMP classes based on a set of historical trajectories labeled by unsupervised clustering. It then assigns HMP class labels to current trajectories. Parameters of the proposed classifier are recalculated based on the augmented dataset of labeled trajectories and all HMP classes are according...

  6. Discriminating complex networks through supervised NDR and Bayesian classifier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Ke-Sheng; Rong, Li-Li; Yu, Kai

    2016-12-01

    Discriminating complex networks is a particularly important task for the purpose of the systematic study of networks. In order to discriminate unknown networks exactly, a large set of network measurements are needed to be taken into account for comprehensively considering network properties. However, as we demonstrate in this paper, these measurements are nonlinear correlated with each other in general, resulting in a wide variety of redundant measurements which unintentionally explain the same aspects of network properties. To solve this problem, we adopt supervised nonlinear dimensionality reduction (NDR) to eliminate the nonlinear redundancy and visualize networks in a low-dimensional projection space. Though unsupervised NDR can achieve the same aim, we illustrate that supervised NDR is more appropriate than unsupervised NDR for discrimination task. After that, we perform Bayesian classifier (BC) in the projection space to discriminate the unknown network by considering the projection score vectors as the input of the classifier. We also demonstrate the feasibility and effectivity of this proposed method in six extensive research real networks, ranging from technological to social or biological. Moreover, the effectiveness and advantage of the proposed method is proved by the contrast experiments with the existing method.

  7. Road network safety evaluation using Bayesian hierarchical joint model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Huang, Helai

    2016-05-01

    Safety and efficiency are commonly regarded as two significant performance indicators of transportation systems. In practice, road network planning has focused on road capacity and transport efficiency whereas the safety level of a road network has received little attention in the planning stage. This study develops a Bayesian hierarchical joint model for road network safety evaluation to help planners take traffic safety into account when planning a road network. The proposed model establishes relationships between road network risk and micro-level variables related to road entities and traffic volume, as well as socioeconomic, trip generation and network density variables at macro level which are generally used for long term transportation plans. In addition, network spatial correlation between intersections and their connected road segments is also considered in the model. A road network is elaborately selected in order to compare the proposed hierarchical joint model with a previous joint model and a negative binomial model. According to the results of the model comparison, the hierarchical joint model outperforms the joint model and negative binomial model in terms of the goodness-of-fit and predictive performance, which indicates the reasonableness of considering the hierarchical data structure in crash prediction and analysis. Moreover, both random effects at the TAZ level and the spatial correlation between intersections and their adjacent segments are found to be significant, supporting the employment of the hierarchical joint model as an alternative in road-network-level safety modeling as well.

  8. A Bayesian Network approach for flash flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boutkhamouine, Brahim; Roux, Hélène; Pérès, François

    2017-04-01

    influencing variables. Each node of the graph corresponds to a variable and arcs represent the probabilistic dependencies between these variables. Both the quantification of the strength of these probabilistic dependencies and the computation of inferences are based on Bayes' theorem. In order to use BNs for the assessment of the flooding risks, the modelling work is divided into two parts. First, identifying all the factors controlling the flood generation. The qualitative explanation of this issue is then reached by establishing the cause and effect relationships between these factors. These underlying relationships are represented in what we call Conditional Probabilities Tables (CPTs). The next step is to estimate these CPTs using information coming from network of sensors, databases and expertise. By using this basic cognitive structure, we will be able to estimate the magnitude of flood risk in a small geographical area with a homogeneous hydrological system. The second part of our work will be dedicated to the estimation of this risk on the scale of a basin. To do so, we will create a spatio-temporal model able to take in consideration both spatial and temporal variability of all factors involved in the flood generation. Key words: Flash flood forecasting - Uncertainty modelling - flood risk management -Bayesian Networks.

  9. Bayesian blind source separation for data with network structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illner, Katrin; Fuchs, Christiane; Theis, Fabian J

    2014-11-01

    In biology, more and more information about the interactions in regulatory systems becomes accessible, and this often leads to prior knowledge for recent data interpretations. In this work we focus on multivariate signaling data, where the structure of the data is induced by a known regulatory network. To extract signals of interest we assume a blind source separation (BSS) model, and we capture the structure of the source signals in terms of a Bayesian network. To keep the parameter space small, we consider stationary signals, and we introduce the new algorithm emGrade, where model parameters and source signals are estimated using expectation maximization. For network data, we find an improved estimation performance compared to other BSS algorithms, and the flexible Bayesian modeling enables us to deal with repeated and missing observation values. The main advantage of our method is the statistically interpretable likelihood, and we can use model selection criteria to determine the (in general unknown) number of source signals or decide between different given networks. In simulations we demonstrate the recovery of the source signals dependent on the graph structure and the dimensionality of the data.

  10. A Bayesian Network Approach to Modeling Learning Progressions and Task Performance. CRESST Report 776

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Patti; Rutstein, Daisy Wise; Mislevy, Robert J.; Liu, Junhui; Choi, Younyoung; Levy, Roy; Crawford, Aaron; DiCerbo, Kristen E.; Chappel, Kristina; Behrens, John T.

    2010-01-01

    A major issue in the study of learning progressions (LPs) is linking student performance on assessment tasks to the progressions. This report describes the challenges faced in making this linkage using Bayesian networks to model LPs in the field of computer networking. The ideas are illustrated with exemplar Bayesian networks built on Cisco…

  11. Bayesian network as a modelling tool for risk management in agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Svend; Madsen, Anders Læsø; Lund, Mogens

    . In this paper we use Bayesian networks as an integrated modelling approach for representing uncertainty and analysing risk management in agriculture. It is shown how historical farm account data may be efficiently used to estimate conditional probabilities, which are the core elements in Bayesian network models....... We further show how the Bayesian network model RiBay is used for stochastic simulation of farm income, and we demonstrate how RiBay can be used to simulate risk management at the farm level. It is concluded that the key strength of a Bayesian network is the transparency of assumptions...

  12. Bayesian network as a modelling tool for risk management in agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Svend; Madsen, Anders L.; Lund, Mogens

    . In this paper we use Bayesian networks as an integrated modelling approach for representing uncertainty and analysing risk management in agriculture. It is shown how historical farm account data may be efficiently used to estimate conditional probabilities, which are the core elements in Bayesian network models....... We further show how the Bayesian network model RiBay is used for stochastic simulation of farm income, and we demonstrate how RiBay can be used to simulate risk management at the farm level. It is concluded that the key strength of a Bayesian network is the transparency of assumptions...

  13. Application of bayesian networks to real-time flood risk estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrote, L.; Molina, M.; Blasco, G.

    2003-04-01

    This paper presents the application of a computational paradigm taken from the field of artificial intelligence - the bayesian network - to model the behaviour of hydrologic basins during floods. The final goal of this research is to develop representation techniques for hydrologic simulation models in order to define, develop and validate a mechanism, supported by a software environment, oriented to build decision models for the prediction and management of river floods in real time. The emphasis is placed on providing decision makers with tools to incorporate their knowledge of basin behaviour, usually formulated in terms of rainfall-runoff models, in the process of real-time decision making during floods. A rainfall-runoff model is only a step in the process of decision making. If a reliable rainfall forecast is available and the rainfall-runoff model is well calibrated, decisions can be based mainly on model results. However, in most practical situations, uncertainties in rainfall forecasts or model performance have to be incorporated in the decision process. The computation paradigm adopted for the simulation of hydrologic processes is the bayesian network. A bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph that represents causal influences between linked variables. Under this representation, uncertain qualitative variables are related through causal relations quantified with conditional probabilities. The solution algorithm allows the computation of the expected probability distribution of unknown variables conditioned to the observations. An approach to represent hydrologic processes by bayesian networks with temporal and spatial extensions is presented in this paper, together with a methodology for the development of bayesian models using results produced by deterministic hydrologic simulation models

  14. Learn the effective connectivity pattern of attention networks: a resting functional MRI and Bayesian network study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Juan; Li, Rui; Yao, Li; Wu, Xia

    2011-03-01

    Task-based neuroimaging studies revealed that different attention operations were carried out by the functional interaction and cooperation between two attention systems: the dorsal attention network (DAN) and the ventral attention network (VAN), which were respectively involved in the "top-down" endogenous attention orienting and the "bottomup" exogenous attention reorienting process. Recent focused resting functional MRI (fMRI) studies found the two attention systems were inherently organized in the human brain regardless of whether or not the attention process were required, but how the two attention systems interact with each other in the absence of task is yet to be investigated. In this study, we first separated the DAN and VAN by applying the group independent component analysis (ICA) to the resting fMRI data acquired from 12 healthy young subjects, then used Gaussian Bayesian network (BN) learning approach to explore the plausible effective connectivity pattern of the two attention systems. It was found regions from the same attention network were strongly intra-dependent, and all the connections were located in the information flow from VAN to DAN, which suggested that an orderly functional interactions and information exchanges between the two attention networks existed in the intrinsic spontaneous brain activity, and the inherent connections might benefit the efficient cognitive process between DAN and VAN, such as the "top-down" and "bottom-up" reciprocal interaction when attention-related tasks were involved.

  15. A Non-Homogeneous Dynamic Bayesian Network with Sequentially Coupled Interaction Parameters for Applications in Systems and Synthetic Biology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    2012-01-01

    An important and challenging problem in systems biology is the inference of gene regulatory networks from short non-stationary time series of transcriptional profiles. A popular approach that has been widely applied to this end is based on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), although traditional homog

  16. A Non-Homogeneous Dynamic Bayesian Network with Sequentially Coupled Interaction Parameters for Applications in Systems and Synthetic Biology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    2012-01-01

    An important and challenging problem in systems biology is the inference of gene regulatory networks from short non-stationary time series of transcriptional profiles. A popular approach that has been widely applied to this end is based on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), although traditional

  17. Spike-Based Bayesian-Hebbian Learning of Temporal Sequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tully, Philip J; Lindén, Henrik; Hennig, Matthias H

    2016-01-01

    of firing in pools of excitatory neurons, together with asymmetrical associations between these distinct network states, can be acquired through plasticity. The model's feasibility is demonstrated using simulations of adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire model neurons (AdEx). We show that the learning......Many cognitive and motor functions are enabled by the temporal representation and processing of stimuli, but it remains an open issue how neocortical microcircuits can reliably encode and replay such sequences of information. To better understand this, a modular attractor memory network is proposed...... in which meta-stable sequential attractor transitions are learned through changes to synaptic weights and intrinsic excitabilities via the spike-based Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN) learning rule. We find that the formation of distributed memories, embodied by increased periods...

  18. Real-time prediction of acute cardiovascular events using hardware-implemented Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tylman, Wojciech; Waszyrowski, Tomasz; Napieralski, Andrzej; Kamiński, Marek; Trafidło, Tamara; Kulesza, Zbigniew; Kotas, Rafał; Marciniak, Paweł; Tomala, Radosław; Wenerski, Maciej

    2016-02-01

    This paper presents a decision support system that aims to estimate a patient׳s general condition and detect situations which pose an immediate danger to the patient׳s health or life. The use of this system might be especially important in places such as accident and emergency departments or admission wards, where a small medical team has to take care of many patients in various general conditions. Particular stress is laid on cardiovascular and pulmonary conditions, including those leading to sudden cardiac arrest. The proposed system is a stand-alone microprocessor-based device that works in conjunction with a standard vital signs monitor, which provides input signals such as temperature, blood pressure, pulseoxymetry, ECG, and ICG. The signals are preprocessed and analysed by a set of artificial intelligence algorithms, the core of which is based on Bayesian networks. The paper focuses on the construction and evaluation of the Bayesian network, both its structure and numerical specification.

  19. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina eMoreira

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

  20. Risk Analysis of New Product Development Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MohammadRahim Ramezanian

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The process of presenting new product development (NPD to market is of great importance due to variability of competitive rules in the business world. The product development teams face a lot of pressures due to rapid growth of technology, increased risk-taking of world markets and increasing variations in the customers` needs. However, the process of NPD is always associated with high uncertainties and complexities. To be successful in completing NPD project, existing risks should be identified and assessed. On the other hand, the Bayesian networks as a strong approach of decision making modeling of uncertain situations has attracted many researchers in various areas. These networks provide a decision supporting system for problems with uncertainties or probable reasoning. In this paper, the available risk factors in product development have been first identified in an electric company and then, the Bayesian network has been utilized and their interrelationships have been modeled to evaluate the available risk in the process. To determine the primary and conditional probabilities of the nodes, the viewpoints of experts in this area have been applied. The available risks in this process have been divided to High (H, Medium (M and Low (L groups and analyzed by the Agena Risk software. The findings derived from software output indicate that the production of the desired product has relatively high risk. In addition, Predictive support and Diagnostic support have been performed on the model with two different scenarios..

  1. Risk Analysis of New Product Development Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Rahim Ramezanian

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The process of presenting new product development (NPD to market is of great importance due to variability of competitive rules in the business world. The product development teams face a lot of pressures due to rapid growth of technology, increased risk-taking of world markets and increasing variations in the customers` needs. However, the process of NPD is always associated with high uncertainties and complexities. To be successful in completing NPD project, existing risks should be identified and assessed. On the other hand, the Bayesian networks as a strong approach of decision making modeling of uncertain situations has attracted many researchers in various areas. These networks provide a decision supporting system for problems with uncertainties or probable reasoning. In this paper, the available risk factors in product development have been first identified in an electric company and then, the Bayesian network has been utilized and their interrelationships have been modeled to evaluate the available risk in the process. To determine the primary and conditional probabilities of the nodes, the viewpoints of experts in this area have been applied. The available risks in this process have been divided to High (H, Medium (M and Low (L groups and analyzed by the Agena Risk software. The findings derived from software output indicate that the production of the desired product has relatively high risk. In addition, Predictive support and Diagnostic support have been performed on the model with two different scenarios.

  2. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Catarina; Wichert, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

  3. A general risk-based adaptive management scheme incorporating the Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model with the South River, Virginia, as case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G; Markiewicz, April J; Ayre, Kim K; Johns, Annie F; Harris, Meagan J; Stinson, Jonah M; Summers, Heather M

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive management has been presented as a method for the remediation, restoration, and protection of ecological systems. Recent reviews have found that the implementation of adaptive management has been unsuccessful in many instances. We present a modification of the model first formulated by Wyant and colleagues that puts ecological risk assessment into a central role in the adaptive management process. This construction has 3 overarching segments. Public engagement and governance determine the goals of society by identifying endpoints and specifying constraints such as costs. The research, engineering, risk assessment, and management section contains the decision loop estimating risk, evaluating options, specifying the monitoring program, and incorporating the data to re-evaluate risk. The 3rd component is the recognition that risk and public engagement can be altered by various externalities such as climate change, economics, technological developments, and population growth. We use the South River, Virginia, USA, study area and our previous research to illustrate each of these components. In our example, we use the Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model to estimate risks, evaluate remediation options, and provide lists of monitoring priorities. The research, engineering, risk assessment, and management loop also provides a structure in which data and the records of what worked and what did not, the learning process, can be stored. The learning process is a central part of adaptive management. We conclude that risk assessment can and should become an integral part of the adaptive management process. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:115-126. © 2016 SETAC.

  4. Multivariate Analysis of the Determinants of the End-Product Quality of Manure-Based Composts and Vermicomposts Using Bayesian Network Modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julie Faverial

    Full Text Available Previous studies indicated that the quality of tropical composts is poorer than that of composts produced in temperate regions. The aim of this study was to test the type of manure, the use of co-composting with green waste, and the stabilization method for their ability to improve compost quality in the tropics. We produced 68 composts and vermicomposts that were analysed for their C, lignin and NPK contents throughout the composting process. Bayesian networks were used to assess the mechanisms controlling compost quality. The concentration effect, for C and lignin, and the initial blend quality, for NPK content, were the main factors affecting compost quality. Cattle manure composts presented the highest C and lignin contents, and poultry litter composts exhibited the highest NPK content. Co-composting improved quality by enhancing the concentration effect, which reduced the impact of C and nutrient losses. Vermicomposting did not improve compost quality; co-composting without earthworms thus appears to be a suitable stabilization method under the conditions of this study because it produced high quality composts and is easier to implement.

  5. Multivariate Analysis of the Determinants of the End-Product Quality of Manure-Based Composts and Vermicomposts Using Bayesian Network Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faverial, Julie; Cornet, Denis; Paul, Jacky

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies indicated that the quality of tropical composts is poorer than that of composts produced in temperate regions. The aim of this study was to test the type of manure, the use of co-composting with green waste, and the stabilization method for their ability to improve compost quality in the tropics. We produced 68 composts and vermicomposts that were analysed for their C, lignin and NPK contents throughout the composting process. Bayesian networks were used to assess the mechanisms controlling compost quality. The concentration effect, for C and lignin, and the initial blend quality, for NPK content, were the main factors affecting compost quality. Cattle manure composts presented the highest C and lignin contents, and poultry litter composts exhibited the highest NPK content. Co-composting improved quality by enhancing the concentration effect, which reduced the impact of C and nutrient losses. Vermicomposting did not improve compost quality; co-composting without earthworms thus appears to be a suitable stabilization method under the conditions of this study because it produced high quality composts and is easier to implement. PMID:27314950

  6. Multivariate Analysis of the Determinants of the End-Product Quality of Manure-Based Composts and Vermicomposts Using Bayesian Network Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faverial, Julie; Cornet, Denis; Paul, Jacky; Sierra, Jorge

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies indicated that the quality of tropical composts is poorer than that of composts produced in temperate regions. The aim of this study was to test the type of manure, the use of co-composting with green waste, and the stabilization method for their ability to improve compost quality in the tropics. We produced 68 composts and vermicomposts that were analysed for their C, lignin and NPK contents throughout the composting process. Bayesian networks were used to assess the mechanisms controlling compost quality. The concentration effect, for C and lignin, and the initial blend quality, for NPK content, were the main factors affecting compost quality. Cattle manure composts presented the highest C and lignin contents, and poultry litter composts exhibited the highest NPK content. Co-composting improved quality by enhancing the concentration effect, which reduced the impact of C and nutrient losses. Vermicomposting did not improve compost quality; co-composting without earthworms thus appears to be a suitable stabilization method under the conditions of this study because it produced high quality composts and is easier to implement.

  7. Diagnosing Intermittent and Persistent Faults using Static Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megshoel, Ole Jakob

    2010-01-01

    Both intermittent and persistent faults may occur in a wide range of systems. We present in this paper the introduction of intermittent fault handling techniques into ProDiagnose, an algorithm that previously only handled persistent faults. We discuss novel algorithmic techniques as well as how our static Bayesian networks help diagnose, in an integrated manner, a range of intermittent and persistent faults. Through experiments with data from the ADAPT electrical power system test bed, generated as part of the Second International Diagnostic Competition (DXC-10), we show that this novel variant of ProDiagnose diagnoses intermittent faults accurately and quickly, while maintaining strong performance on persistent faults.

  8. A Bayesian Network View on Nested Effects Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fröhlich Holger

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Nested effects models (NEMs are a class of probabilistic models that were designed to reconstruct a hidden signalling structure from a large set of observable effects caused by active interventions into the signalling pathway. We give a more flexible formulation of NEMs in the language of Bayesian networks. Our framework constitutes a natural generalization of the original NEM model, since it explicitly states the assumptions that are tacitly underlying the original version. Our approach gives rise to new learning methods for NEMs, which have been implemented in the /Bioconductor package nem. We validate these methods in a simulation study and apply them to a synthetic lethality dataset in yeast.

  9. Learning Continuous Time Bayesian Network Classifiers Using MapReduce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Villa

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Parameter and structural learning on continuous time Bayesian network classifiers are challenging tasks when you are dealing with big data. This paper describes an efficient scalable parallel algorithm for parameter and structural learning in the case of complete data using the MapReduce framework. Two popular instances of classifiers are analyzed, namely the continuous time naive Bayes and the continuous time tree augmented naive Bayes. Details of the proposed algorithm are presented using Hadoop, an open-source implementation of a distributed file system and the MapReduce framework for distributed data processing. Performance evaluation of the designed algorithm shows a robust parallel scaling.

  10. Refinement of Bayesian Network Structures upon New Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeng, Yifeng; Xiang, Yanping; Pacekajus, Saulius

    2010-01-01

    Refinement of Bayesian network (BN) structures using new data becomes more and more relevant. Some work has been done there; however, one problem has not been considered yet – what to do when new data have fewer or more attributes than the existing model. In both cases, data contain important...... knowledge and every effort must be made in order to extract it. In this paper, we propose a general merging algorithm to deal with situations when new data have different set of attributes. The merging algorithm updates sufficient statistics when new data are received. It expands the flexibility of BN...

  11. Improved Bayesian Network Configurations for Probabilistic Identification of Degradation Mechanisms: Application to Chloride Ingress

    OpenAIRE

    Tran, Thanh-Binh; Bastidas-Arteaga, Emilio; Schoefs, Franck

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Probabilistic modelling of deterioration processes is an important task to plan and quantify maintenance operations of structures. Relevant material and environmental model parameters could be determined from inspection data; but in practice the number of measures required for uncertainty quantification is conditioned by time-consuming and expensive tests. The main objective of this paper is to propose a method based on Bayesian networks for improving the identificatio...

  12. Bayesian network classifiers for categorizing cortical GABAergic interneurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihaljević, Bojan; Benavides-Piccione, Ruth; Bielza, Concha; DeFelipe, Javier; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2015-04-01

    An accepted classification of GABAergic interneurons of the cerebral cortex is a major goal in neuroscience. A recently proposed taxonomy based on patterns of axonal arborization promises to be a pragmatic method for achieving this goal. It involves characterizing interneurons according to five axonal arborization features, called F1-F5, and classifying them into a set of predefined types, most of which are established in the literature. Unfortunately, there is little consensus among expert neuroscientists regarding the morphological definitions of some of the proposed types. While supervised classifiers were able to categorize the interneurons in accordance with experts' assignments, their accuracy was limited because they were trained with disputed labels. Thus, here we automatically classify interneuron subsets with different label reliability thresholds (i.e., such that every cell's label is backed by at least a certain (threshold) number of experts). We quantify the cells with parameters of axonal and dendritic morphologies and, in order to predict the type, also with axonal features F1-F4 provided by the experts. Using Bayesian network classifiers, we accurately characterize and classify the interneurons and identify useful predictor variables. In particular, we discriminate among reliable examples of common basket, horse-tail, large basket, and Martinotti cells with up to 89.52% accuracy, and single out the number of branches at 180 μm from the soma, the convex hull 2D area, and the axonal features F1-F4 as especially useful predictors for distinguishing among these types. These results open up new possibilities for an objective and pragmatic classification of interneurons.

  13. Bayesian Networks for Causal Reasoning in Situation Assessment%用于态势评估中因果推理的贝叶斯网络

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李伟生; 王宝树

    2002-01-01

    Causal reasoning plays an important role in situation assessment (SA). Using Bayesian networks to find out the hidden patterns between situation hypothesis and events is the function needed to accomplish in situation as sessment. Based on different link relationship,a Bayesian network model for situation assessment is analyzed in this paper. To overcome the weakness of this model in application for dynamic changed scenario ,this paper presents an approach that uses a dynamic Bayesian network to represent features of the situation hypothesis and events. And the algorithms of propagation of corresponding information through the network are introduced respectively.

  14. Bayesian state space models for dynamic genetic network construction across multiple tissues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad

    2016-08-01

    Construction of gene-gene interaction networks and potential pathways is a challenging and important problem in genomic research for complex diseases while estimating the dynamic changes of the temporal correlations and non-stationarity are the keys in this process. In this paper, we develop dynamic state space models with hierarchical Bayesian settings to tackle this challenge for inferring the dynamic profiles and genetic networks associated with disease treatments. We treat both the stochastic transition matrix and the observation matrix time-variant and include temporal correlation structures in the covariance matrix estimations in the multivariate Bayesian state space models. The unevenly spaced short time courses with unseen time points are treated as hidden state variables. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches with various prior and hyper-prior models with Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Gibbs sampling algorithms are used to estimate the model parameters and the hidden state variables. We apply the proposed Hierarchical Bayesian state space models to multiple tissues (liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney) Affymetrix time course data sets following corticosteroid (CS) drug administration. Both simulation and real data analysis results show that the genomic changes over time and gene-gene interaction in response to CS treatment can be well captured by the proposed models. The proposed dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian state space modeling approaches could be expanded and applied to other large scale genomic data, such as next generation sequence (NGS) combined with real time and time varying electronic health record (EHR) for more comprehensive and robust systematic and network based analysis in order to transform big biomedical data into predictions and diagnostics for precision medicine and personalized healthcare with better decision making and patient outcomes.

  15. Efficient Bayesian Learning in Social Networks with Gaussian Estimators

    CERN Document Server

    Mossel, Elchanan

    2010-01-01

    We propose a simple and efficient Bayesian model of iterative learning on social networks. This model is efficient in two senses: the process both results in an optimal belief, and can be carried out with modest computational resources for large networks. This result extends Condorcet's Jury Theorem to general social networks, while preserving rationality and computational feasibility. The model consists of a group of agents who belong to a social network, so that a pair of agents can observe each other's actions only if they are neighbors. We assume that the network is connected and that the agents have full knowledge of the structure of the network. The agents try to estimate some state of the world S (say, the price of oil a year from today). Each agent has a private measurement of S. This is modeled, for agent v, by a number S_v picked from a Gaussian distribution with mean S and standard deviation one. Accordingly, agent v's prior belief regarding S is a normal distribution with mean S_v and standard dev...

  16. Bayesian Network Inference Enables Unbiased Phenotypic Anchoring of Transcriptomic Responses to Cigarette Smoke in Humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennen, Danyel G J; van Leeuwen, Danitsja M; Hendrickx, Diana M; Gottschalk, Ralph W H; van Delft, Joost H M; Kleinjans, Jos C S

    2015-10-19

    Microarray-based transcriptomic analysis has been demonstrated to hold the opportunity to study the effects of human exposure to, e.g., chemical carcinogens at the whole genome level, thus yielding broad-ranging molecular information on possible carcinogenic effects. Since genes do not operate individually but rather through concerted interactions, analyzing and visualizing networks of genes should provide important mechanistic information, especially upon connecting them to functional parameters, such as those derived from measurements of biomarkers for exposure and carcinogenic risk. Conventional methods such as hierarchical clustering and correlation analyses are frequently used to address these complex interactions but are limited as they do not provide directional causal dependence relationships. Therefore, our aim was to apply Bayesian network inference with the purpose of phenotypic anchoring of modified gene expressions. We investigated a use case on transcriptomic responses to cigarette smoking in humans, in association with plasma cotinine levels as biomarkers of exposure and aromatic DNA-adducts in blood cells as biomarkers of carcinogenic risk. Many of the genes that appear in the Bayesian networks surrounding plasma cotinine, and to a lesser extent around aromatic DNA-adducts, hold biologically relevant functions in inducing severe adverse effects of smoking. In conclusion, this study shows that Bayesian network inference enables unbiased phenotypic anchoring of transcriptomics responses. Furthermore, in all inferred Bayesian networks several dependencies are found which point to known but also to new relationships between the expression of specific genes, cigarette smoke exposure, DNA damaging-effects, and smoking-related diseases, in particular associated with apoptosis, DNA repair, and tumor suppression, as well as with autoimmunity.

  17. AIS-BN: An Adaptive Importance Sampling Algorithm for Evidential Reasoning in Large Bayesian Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Cheng, J; 10.1613/jair.764

    2011-01-01

    Stochastic sampling algorithms, while an attractive alternative to exact algorithms in very large Bayesian network models, have been observed to perform poorly in evidential reasoning with extremely unlikely evidence. To address this problem, we propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm, AIS-BN, that shows promising convergence rates even under extreme conditions and seems to outperform the existing sampling algorithms consistently. Three sources of this performance improvement are (1) two heuristics for initialization of the importance function that are based on the theoretical properties of importance sampling in finite-dimensional integrals and the structural advantages of Bayesian networks, (2) a smooth learning method for the importance function, and (3) a dynamic weighting function for combining samples from different stages of the algorithm. We tested the performance of the AIS-BN algorithm along with two state of the art general purpose sampling algorithms, likelihood weighting (Fung and Chang...

  18. Nuclear Mass Predictions for the Crustal Composition of Neutron Stars: A Bayesian Neural Network Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Utama, R; Prosper, H B

    2016-01-01

    Besides their intrinsic nuclear-structure value, nuclear mass models are essential for astrophysical applications, such as r-process nucleosynthesis and neutron-star structure. To overcome the intrinsic limitations of existing "state-of-the-art" mass models, we propose a refinement based on a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) formalism. A novel BNN approach is implemented with the goal of optimizing mass residuals between theory and experiment. A significant improvement (of about 40%) in the mass predictions of existing models is obtained after BNN refinement. Moreover, these improved results are now accompanied by proper statistical errors. Finally, by constructing a "world average" of these predictions, a mass model is obtained that is used to predict the composition of the outer crust of a neutron star. The power of the Bayesian neural network method has been successfully demonstrated by a systematic improvement in the accuracy of the predictions of nuclear masses. Extension to other nuclear observables is a n...

  19. Application of Bayesian Networks to hindcast barrier island morphodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Kathleen E.; Adams, Peter N.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Lentz, Erika E.; Brenner, Owen T.

    2015-01-01

    Prediction of coastal vulnerability is of increasing concern to policy makers, coastal managers and other stakeholders. Coastal regions and barrier islands along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are subject to frequent, large storms, whose waves and storm surge can dramatically alter beach morphology, threaten infrastructure, and impact local economies. Given that precise forecasts of regional hazards are challenging, because of the complex interactions between processes on many scales, a range of probable geomorphic change in response to storm conditions is often more helpful than deterministic predictions. Site-specific probabilistic models of coastal change are reliable because they are formulated with observations so that local factors, of potentially high influence, are inherent in the model. The development and use of predictive tools such as Bayesian Networks in response to future storms has the potential to better inform management decisions and hazard preparation in coastal communities. We present several Bayesian Networks designed to hindcast distinct morphologic changes attributable to the Nor'Ida storm of 2009, at Fire Island, New York. Model predictions are informed with historical system behavior, initial morphologic conditions, and a parameterized treatment of wave climate.

  20. Nuclear charge radii: density functional theory meets Bayesian neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utama, R.; Chen, Wei-Chia; Piekarewicz, J.

    2016-11-01

    The distribution of electric charge in atomic nuclei is fundamental to our understanding of the complex nuclear dynamics and a quintessential observable to validate nuclear structure models. The aim of this study is to explore a novel approach that combines sophisticated models of nuclear structure with Bayesian neural networks (BNN) to generate predictions for the charge radii of thousands of nuclei throughout the nuclear chart. A class of relativistic energy density functionals is used to provide robust predictions for nuclear charge radii. In turn, these predictions are refined through Bayesian learning for a neural network that is trained using residuals between theoretical predictions and the experimental data. Although predictions obtained with density functional theory provide a fairly good description of experiment, our results show significant improvement (better than 40%) after BNN refinement. Moreover, these improved results for nuclear charge radii are supplemented with theoretical error bars. We have successfully demonstrated the ability of the BNN approach to significantly increase the accuracy of nuclear models in the predictions of nuclear charge radii. However, as many before us, we failed to uncover the underlying physics behind the intriguing behavior of charge radii along the calcium isotopic chain.

  1. SU-E-T-51: Bayesian Network Models for Radiotherapy Error Detection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalet, A; Phillips, M; Gennari, J [UniversityWashington, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: To develop a probabilistic model of radiotherapy plans using Bayesian networks that will detect potential errors in radiation delivery. Methods: Semi-structured interviews with medical physicists and other domain experts were employed to generate a set of layered nodes and arcs forming a Bayesian Network (BN) which encapsulates relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies. Concepts in the final network were limited to those whose parameters are represented in the institutional database at a level significant enough to develop mathematical distributions. The concept-relation knowledge base was constructed using the Web Ontology Language (OWL) and translated into Hugin Expert Bayes Network files via the the RHugin package in the R statistical programming language. A subset of de-identified data derived from a Mosaiq relational database representing 1937 unique prescription cases was processed and pre-screened for errors and then used by the Hugin implementation of the Estimation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for machine learning all parameter distributions. Individual networks were generated for each of several commonly treated anatomic regions identified by ICD-9 neoplasm categories including lung, brain, lymphoma, and female breast. Results: The resulting Bayesian networks represent a large part of the probabilistic knowledge inherent in treatment planning. By populating the networks entirely with data captured from a clinical oncology information management system over the course of several years of normal practice, we were able to create accurate probability tables with no additional time spent by experts or clinicians. These probabilistic descriptions of the treatment planning allow one to check if a treatment plan is within the normal scope of practice, given some initial set of clinical evidence and thereby detect for potential outliers to be flagged for further investigation. Conclusion: The networks developed here support the

  2. The Max-Min High-Order Dynamic Bayesian Network for Learning Gene Regulatory Networks with Time-Delayed Regulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yifeng; Chen, Haifen; Zheng, Jie; Ngom, Alioune

    2016-01-01

    Accurately reconstructing gene regulatory network (GRN) from gene expression data is a challenging task in systems biology. Although some progresses have been made, the performance of GRN reconstruction still has much room for improvement. Because many regulatory events are asynchronous, learning gene interactions with multiple time delays is an effective way to improve the accuracy of GRN reconstruction. Here, we propose a new approach, called Max-Min high-order dynamic Bayesian network (MMHO-DBN) by extending the Max-Min hill-climbing Bayesian network technique originally devised for learning a Bayesian network's structure from static data. Our MMHO-DBN can explicitly model the time lags between regulators and targets in an efficient manner. It first uses constraint-based ideas to limit the space of potential structures, and then applies search-and-score ideas to search for an optimal HO-DBN structure. The performance of MMHO-DBN to GRN reconstruction was evaluated using both synthetic and real gene expression time-series data. Results show that MMHO-DBN is more accurate than current time-delayed GRN learning methods, and has an intermediate computing performance. Furthermore, it is able to learn long time-delayed relationships between genes. We applied sensitivity analysis on our model to study the performance variation along different parameter settings. The result provides hints on the setting of parameters of MMHO-DBN.

  3. Recursive Bayesian recurrent neural networks for time-series modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirikitani, Derrick T; Nikolaev, Nikolay

    2010-02-01

    This paper develops a probabilistic approach to recursive second-order training of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for improved time-series modeling. A general recursive Bayesian Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is derived to sequentially update the weights and the covariance (Hessian) matrix. The main strengths of the approach are a principled handling of the regularization hyperparameters that leads to better generalization, and stable numerical performance. The framework involves the adaptation of a noise hyperparameter and local weight prior hyperparameters, which represent the noise in the data and the uncertainties in the model parameters. Experimental investigations using artificial and real-world data sets show that RNNs equipped with the proposed approach outperform standard real-time recurrent learning and extended Kalman training algorithms for recurrent networks, as well as other contemporary nonlinear neural models, on time-series modeling.

  4. Urban land use extraction from Very High Resolution remote sensing imagery using a Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mengmeng; Stein, Alfred; Bijker, Wietske; Zhan, Qingming

    2016-12-01

    Urban land use extraction from Very High Resolution (VHR) remote sensing images is important in many applications. This study explores a novel way to characterize the spatial arrangement of land cover features, and to integrate it with commonly used land use indicators. Characterization is done based upon building objects, taking their functional properties into account. We categorize the objects to a set of building types according to their geometrical, morphological, and contextual attributes. The spatial arrangement is characterized by quantifying the distribution of building types within a land use unit. Moreover, a set of existing land use indicators primarily based upon the coverage ratio and density of land cover features is investigated. A Bayesian network integrates the spatial arrangement and land use indicators, by which the urban land use is inferred. We applied urban land use extraction to a Pléiades VHR image over the city of Wuhan, China. Our results showed that integrating the spatial arrangement significantly improved the accuracy of urban land use extraction as compared with using land use indicators alone. Moreover, the Bayesian network method produced results comparable to other commonly used classifiers. We concluded that the proposed characterization of spatial arrangement and Bayesian network integration was effective for urban land use extraction from VHR images.

  5. An Exploratory Study Examining the Feasibility of Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Circuit Analysis Understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Gregory K. W. K.; Dionne, Gary B.; Kaiser, William J.

    2006-01-01

    Our research question was whether we could develop a feasible technique, using Bayesian networks, to diagnose gaps in student knowledge. Thirty-four college-age participants completed tasks designed to measure conceptual knowledge, procedural knowledge, and problem-solving skills related to circuit analysis. A Bayesian network was used to model…

  6. A Comparison of General Diagnostic Models (GDM) and Bayesian Networks Using a Middle School Mathematics Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Haiyan

    2013-01-01

    General diagnostic models (GDMs) and Bayesian networks are mathematical frameworks that cover a wide variety of psychometric models. Both extend latent class models, and while GDMs also extend item response theory (IRT) models, Bayesian networks can be parameterized using discretized IRT. The purpose of this study is to examine similarities and…

  7. 基于贝叶斯网络的轨道交通司机胜任力评价%Competency Evaluation of Rail Transport Drivers Based on Bayesian Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    褚福磊; 叶龙

    2012-01-01

    根据调查分析得到轨道交通司机胜任力评价的4个一级评价指标和16个二级评价指标.将此评价指标作为变量,基于贝叶斯网络原理,构建司机胜任力贝叶斯网络.选取职业心理特征和职业理论特征作为中间节点,规章制度掌握程度、车辆理论知识水平、学习能力和复杂反应能力作为父节点,司机胜任力作为子结点,得到简化的司机胜任力子贝叶斯网络.利用该子贝叶斯网络对实例的分析结果表明:司机职业心理特征对司机胜任力影响较大;评价结果准确地反映了司机胜任力各项评价指标间的相互作用关系;该方法可为司机的选拔、培训和退役提供定量分析的依据.%We obtained the competency evaluation indicators of rail transport drivers according to the survey analysis, and the indicators included 4 first-level evaluation indicators and 16 second-level evaluation indicators. To regard these indicators as variables, and based on the principles of Bayesian networks, the competence Bayesian networks of rail transport drivers were built. We chose vocational psychology characteristics and vocational theory characteristics as the intermediate nodes, the extent of mastering the rules and regulations, level of vehicle theoretical knowledge, learning ability and complexity response ability as father node, competency of rail transport drivers as child node, and then we built the simplified sub-Bayes-ian network of rail transport drivers' competency. Through analyzing the example by this sub-Bayesian network, the results show that vocational psychology characteristics play a more important role in the competence of rail transport drivers. The evaluation results can accurately reflect the interactions among all the evaluation indicators for the competence of rail transport drivers. The method can provide a quantitative analysis basis for rail transport drivers' selection, training and retirement.

  8. Applying Bayesian belief networks in rapid response situations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibson, William L [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Deborah, Leishman, A. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Van Eeckhout, Edward [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    The authors have developed an enhanced Bayesian analysis tool called the Integrated Knowledge Engine (IKE) for monitoring and surveillance. The enhancements are suited for Rapid Response Situations where decisions must be made based on uncertain and incomplete evidence from many diverse and heterogeneous sources. The enhancements extend the probabilistic results of the traditional Bayesian analysis by (1) better quantifying uncertainty arising from model parameter uncertainty and uncertain evidence, (2) optimizing the collection of evidence to reach conclusions more quickly, and (3) allowing the analyst to determine the influence of the remaining evidence that cannot be obtained in the time allowed. These extended features give the analyst and decision maker a better comprehension of the adequacy of the acquired evidence and hence the quality of the hurried decisions. They also describe two example systems where the above features are highlighted.

  9. The Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Based on Bayesian Neural Network%基于贝叶斯神经网络短期负荷预测模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    史会峰; 牛东晓; 卢艳霞

    2012-01-01

    本文提出了基于贝叶斯神经网络(BNN)短期负荷预测模型。根据气象影响因素和电力负荷的样本数据,针对权向量参数的先验分布分别为正态分布和柯西分布两种情况,应用混合蒙特卡洛(HMC)算法学习了BNN的权向量参数。由HMC算法和Laplace算法学习的贝叶斯神经网络以及BP算法学习的传统神经网络分别对4月(春)、8月(夏)、10月(秋)和1月(冬)每月25天的每个整点时刻的负荷进行了预测。这些神经网络的输入层有11个节点,它们分别与每个整点时刻和的气象因素、上一个整点时刻的气象因素和时间变量相对应,输出层只有一个节点,它与负荷变量对应。试验结果表明HMC算法学习的BNN的预测结果的百分比平均绝对误差(MAPE)和平方根平均误差(RSME)取值远远小于由Laplace算法学习的BNN和BP算法学习的人工神经网络的MAPE和RMSE。而且,HMC算法学习的BNN在测试集和训练集上的预测误差MAPE和RMSE的相差很小。实验结果充分说明HMC算法学习的BNN具有较高的预测精度和较强的泛化能力。%A short term load forecasting model based on Bayesian neural network learned by the Hybrid Monte Carlo(HMC) algorithm is presented in this paper.The weight vector parameter of the Bayesian neural network is considered as multi-dimensional random variables.Using the weather factors and load recorders in training set,HMC algorithm is used to learn the weight vector parameter with respect to normal prior distribution and Cauchy prior distribution respectively.Two Bayesian neural networks learned by Laplace algorithm and HMC algorithm and the artificial neural network learned by the BP algorithm are used to forecast the hourly load of 25 days of April(spring),August(summer),October(autumn) and January(winter) respectively.There are eleven nodes in input layer,ten nodes representing the ten weather factor

  10. 基于贝叶斯博弈模型的无线多跳网络激励机制%Incentive strategy based on Bayesian game model in wireless multi-hop network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    许力; 陈心瑜; 陈志德

    2011-01-01

    The enhancement of nodes intelligence leads to various applications of the wireless multi-hop networks, but meanwhile, the security issue also becomes more critical. In order to prevent the adverse effects of the selfish nodes or malicious nodes, this paper proposed a cross-layer mechanism based on the game theory. A Bayesian game model was developed for the information sharing between the physical layer and the link layer. The Bayesian game model was applied to derive and analyze the mutual information among nodes and form an effective mutual supervision incentive for the node cooperation. The effectiveness of the proposed Bayesian game model is shown through careful case studies and comprehensive computer simulation.%节点智能性的提高使无线多跳网络的应用更为多样化,但也使网络的安全问题变得更为突出.为了有效控制自私节点和恶意节点给网络带来的不良影响,在博弈论的基础上结合跨层优化思想,构建了物理层与链路层部分信息共享的贝叶斯博弈模型.利用贝叶斯博弈理论对节点的交互信息构建策略空间并进行推导分析,形成有效激励节点合作的互监督机制.最后,分别通过典型案例与计算机仿真实验验证了该网络模型的可行性和公平性.

  11. 基于贝叶斯网络的城市平面交叉口交通事故分析%Analysis of Urban Intersection Traffic Accidents Based on Bayesian Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵金宝; 邓卫; 王建

    2012-01-01

    A Bayesian network is developed to analyze the urban intersection traffic accidents. Based on 3,584 recorded urban intersection traffic accidents. Bayesian network structure is formed with references to expert knowledge and data fusion method. The process of parameter learning is completed based on Dirichlet distribution. The influences of some factors on the intersection accidents, such as the vehicle type, intersection type, control style and traffic participant, are computed using the junction tree engine built on Bayesian network and recorded accident data. The results indicate that, the probability of direct crash caused by bicycle is 22. 38%. In comparison, steering failure and judgment failure make the largest probability of side-crashes and rear-end crashes, at 23. 44% and 23. 62%, respectively.%应用贝叶斯网络对城市平面交叉口交通事故进行了分析.以3 584起交通事故数据为分析依据,基于专家知识和数据融合方法建立了城市平面交叉口交通事故分析的贝叶斯网络结构,利用服从Drichlet分布的贝叶斯方法对贝叶斯网络进行了参数学习.结合网络模型,应用联合树引擎算法推断了在车辆类型、交叉口类型、交叉口控制方式和交通参与者等因素的影响下平面交叉口交通事故类型的变化.研究结果表明,在城市平面交叉口中,由自行车导致的正面碰撞事故的概率最大,为22.83%,由于交通参与者转向不当引起的侧面碰撞的概率为23.44%,同时也易导致刮擦事故的发生;交通参与者的感知判断失误导致尾随碰撞事故的概率为23.62%.

  12. Nonlinear inversion of electrical resistivity imaging using pruning Bayesian neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Fei-Bo; Dai, Qian-Wei; Dong, Li

    2016-06-01

    Conventional artificial neural networks used to solve electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) inversion problem suffer from overfitting and local minima. To solve these problems, we propose to use a pruning Bayesian neural network (PBNN) nonlinear inversion method and a sample design method based on the K-medoids clustering algorithm. In the sample design method, the training samples of the neural network are designed according to the prior information provided by the K-medoids clustering results; thus, the training process of the neural network is well guided. The proposed PBNN, based on Bayesian regularization, is used to select the hidden layer structure by assessing the effect of each hidden neuron to the inversion results. Then, the hyperparameter α k , which is based on the generalized mean, is chosen to guide the pruning process according to the prior distribution of the training samples under the small-sample condition. The proposed algorithm is more efficient than other common adaptive regularization methods in geophysics. The inversion of synthetic data and field data suggests that the proposed method suppresses the noise in the neural network training stage and enhances the generalization. The inversion results with the proposed method are better than those of the BPNN, RBFNN, and RRBFNN inversion methods as well as the conventional least squares inversion.

  13. Software Delivery Risk Management: Application of Bayesian Networks in Agile Software Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ancveire Ieva

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The information technology industry cannot be imagined without large- or small-scale projects. They are implemented to develop systems enabling key business processes and improving performance and enterprise resource management. However, projects often experience various difficulties during their execution. These problems are usually related to the three objectives of the project – costs, quality and deadline. A way these challenges can be solved is project risk management. However, not always the main problems and their influencing factors can be easily identified. Usually there is a need for a more profound analysis of the problem situation. In this paper, we propose the use of a Bayesian Network concept for quantitative risk management in agile projects. The Bayesian Network is explored using a case study focusing on a project that faces difficulties during the software delivery process. We explain why an agile risk analysis is needed and assess the potential risk factors, which may occur during the project. Thereafter, we design the Bayesian Network to capture the actual problem situation and make suggestions how to improve the delivery process based on the measures to be taken to reduce the occurrence of project risks.

  14. An object-oriented Bayesian network modeling the causes of leg disorders in finisher herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Tina Birk; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Toft, Niels

    2009-01-01

    The implementation of an effective control strategy against disease in a finisher herd requires knowledge regarding the disease level in the herd. A Bayesian network was constructed that can estimate risk indexes for three cause-categories of leg disorders in a finisher herd. The cause-categories......The implementation of an effective control strategy against disease in a finisher herd requires knowledge regarding the disease level in the herd. A Bayesian network was constructed that can estimate risk indexes for three cause-categories of leg disorders in a finisher herd. The cause...... pigs (e.g. results from diagnostic tests) were used to estimate the most likely cause of leg disorders at herd level. As information to the model originated from two different levels, we used an object-oriented structure in order to ease the specification of the Bayesian network. Hence, a Herd class...... and a Pig class comprised the basic components of the object-oriented structure. The causal structure of the model was based on evidence from published literature. The conditional probabilities used in the model were elicited from experts within the field and from the published literature. To illustrate...

  15. Bayesian networks for evaluation of evidence from forensic entomology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, M Gunnar; Sundström, Anders; Lindström, Anders

    2013-09-01

    In the aftermath of a CBRN incident, there is an urgent need to reconstruct events in order to bring the perpetrators to court and to take preventive actions for the future. The challenge is to discriminate, based on available information, between alternative scenarios. Forensic interpretation is used to evaluate to what extent results from the forensic investigation favor the prosecutors' or the defendants' arguments, using the framework of Bayesian hypothesis testing. Recently, several new scientific disciplines have been used in a forensic context. In the AniBioThreat project, the framework was applied to veterinary forensic pathology, tracing of pathogenic microorganisms, and forensic entomology. Forensic entomology is an important tool for estimating the postmortem interval in, for example, homicide investigations as a complement to more traditional methods. In this article we demonstrate the applicability of the Bayesian framework for evaluating entomological evidence in a forensic investigation through the analysis of a hypothetical scenario involving suspect movement of carcasses from a clandestine laboratory. Probabilities of different findings under the alternative hypotheses were estimated using a combination of statistical analysis of data, expert knowledge, and simulation, and entomological findings are used to update the beliefs about the prosecutors' and defendants' hypotheses and to calculate the value of evidence. The Bayesian framework proved useful for evaluating complex hypotheses using findings from several insect species, accounting for uncertainty about development rate, temperature, and precolonization. The applicability of the forensic statistic approach to evaluating forensic results from a CBRN incident is discussed.

  16. Modelling non-stationary gene regulatory processes with a non-homogeneous Bayesian network and the allocation sampler

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk; Edwards, Kieron D.; Ghazal, Peter; Millar, Andrew J.

    2008-01-01

    Method: The objective of the present article is to propose and evaluate a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian networks for modelling non-homogeneous and non-linear gene regulatory processes. The method is based on a mixture model, using latent variables to assign individual measurements to diff

  17. Modelling non-stationary gene regulatory processes with a non-homogeneous Bayesian network and the allocation sampler

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk; Edwards, Kieron D.; Ghazal, Peter; Millar, Andrew J.

    2008-01-01

    Method: The objective of the present article is to propose and evaluate a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian networks for modelling non-homogeneous and non-linear gene regulatory processes. The method is based on a mixture model, using latent variables to assign individual measurements to

  18. Quantifying structural uncertainty on fault networks using a marked point process within a Bayesian framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydin, Orhun; Caers, Jef Karel

    2017-08-01

    Faults are one of the building-blocks for subsurface modeling studies. Incomplete observations of subsurface fault networks lead to uncertainty pertaining to location, geometry and existence of faults. In practice, gaps in incomplete fault network observations are filled based on tectonic knowledge and interpreter's intuition pertaining to fault relationships. Modeling fault network uncertainty with realistic models that represent tectonic knowledge is still a challenge. Although methods that address specific sources of fault network uncertainty and complexities of fault modeling exists, a unifying framework is still lacking. In this paper, we propose a rigorous approach to quantify fault network uncertainty. Fault pattern and intensity information are expressed by means of a marked point process, marked Strauss point process. Fault network information is constrained to fault surface observations (complete or partial) within a Bayesian framework. A structural prior model is defined to quantitatively express fault patterns, geometries and relationships within the Bayesian framework. Structural relationships between faults, in particular fault abutting relations, are represented with a level-set based approach. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler is used to sample posterior fault network realizations that reflect tectonic knowledge and honor fault observations. We apply the methodology to a field study from Nankai Trough & Kumano Basin. The target for uncertainty quantification is a deep site with attenuated seismic data with only partially visible faults and many faults missing from the survey or interpretation. A structural prior model is built from shallow analog sites that are believed to have undergone similar tectonics compared to the site of study. Fault network uncertainty for the field is quantified with fault network realizations that are conditioned to structural rules, tectonic information and partially observed fault surfaces. We show the proposed

  19. Reconstruction of large-scale gene regulatory networks using Bayesian model averaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Haseong; Gelenbe, Erol

    2012-09-01

    Gene regulatory networks provide the systematic view of molecular interactions in a complex living system. However, constructing large-scale gene regulatory networks is one of the most challenging problems in systems biology. Also large burst sets of biological data require a proper integration technique for reliable gene regulatory network construction. Here we present a new reverse engineering approach based on Bayesian model averaging which attempts to combine all the appropriate models describing interactions among genes. This Bayesian approach with a prior based on the Gibbs distribution provides an efficient means to integrate multiple sources of biological data. In a simulation study with maximum of 2000 genes, our method shows better sensitivity than previous elastic-net and Gaussian graphical models, with a fixed specificity of 0.99. The study also shows that the proposed method outperforms the other standard methods for a DREAM dataset generated by nonlinear stochastic models. In brain tumor data analysis, three large-scale networks consisting of 4422 genes were built using the gene expression of non-tumor, low and high grade tumor mRNA expression samples, along with DNA-protein binding affinity information. We found that genes having a large variation of degree distribution among the three tumor networks are the ones that see most involved in regulatory and developmental processes, which possibly gives a novel insight concerning conventional differentially expressed gene analysis.

  20. Based on expert knowledge of the corn plant diseases and insect pests bayesian network construction%基于专家知识的玉米病虫害贝叶斯网络的构建

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2013-01-01

      由于农业数据具有丰富、多维、动态、不完整、不确定等特点,需要一种方法能够从结构化和半结构化的大量数据中找出隐藏的规律,根据规律制订正确的策略,从而指导农业生产,促进作物的优质、高产。贝叶斯网络具有对不确定知识表示形式简洁、双向推理能力等特点,是一种基于模型的处理不确定性知识的概率方法。本文采用了基于专家知识的方法,重点研究了贝叶斯网络建模技术在玉米病虫害中的应用。%Because agriculture data with rich, multidimensional, dynamic, incomplete, uncertain characteristics, so need a way to find hiding rule from structured and semi-structured data. According to the law, so as to guide agricultural production, promote crop quality, high-yield. Bayesian network has the uncertain knowledge representation form concise, two-way reasoning ability, and other features, is a model based dealing with uncertain knowledge of probability method. This paper adopted the method of based on expert knowledge, focus on the bayesian network modeling technology in the application of corn plant diseases and insect pests.

  1. Hybrid Hot Strip Rolling Force Prediction using a Bayesian Trained Artificial Neural Network and Analytical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelkrim Moussaoui

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The authors discuss the combination of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN with analytical models to improve the performance of the prediction model of finishing rolling force in hot strip rolling mill process. The suggested model was implemented using Bayesian Evidence based training algorithm. It was found that the Bayesian Evidence based approach provided a superior and smoother fit to the real rolling mill data. Completely independent set of real rolling data were used to evaluate the capacity of the fitted ANN model to predict the unseen regions of data. As a result, test rolls obtained by the suggested hybrid model have shown high prediction quality comparatively to the usual empirical prediction models.

  2. Bayesian Inference for Signal-Based Seismic Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, D.

    2015-12-01

    Traditional seismic monitoring systems rely on discrete detections produced by station processing software, discarding significant information present in the original recorded signal. SIG-VISA (Signal-based Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis) is a system for global seismic monitoring through Bayesian inference on seismic signals. By modeling signals directly, our forward model is able to incorporate a rich representation of the physics underlying the signal generation process, including source mechanisms, wave propagation, and station response. This allows inference in the model to recover the qualitative behavior of recent geophysical methods including waveform matching and double-differencing, all as part of a unified Bayesian monitoring system that simultaneously detects and locates events from a global network of stations. We demonstrate recent progress in scaling up SIG-VISA to efficiently process the data stream of global signals recorded by the International Monitoring System (IMS), including comparisons against existing processing methods that show increased sensitivity from our signal-based model and in particular the ability to locate events (including aftershock sequences that can tax analyst processing) precisely from waveform correlation effects. We also provide a Bayesian analysis of an alleged low-magnitude event near the DPRK test site in May 2010 [1] [2], investigating whether such an event could plausibly be detected through automated processing in a signal-based monitoring system. [1] Zhang, Miao and Wen, Lianxing. "Seismological Evidence for a Low-Yield Nuclear Test on 12 May 2010 in North Korea". Seismological Research Letters, January/February 2015. [2] Richards, Paul. "A Seismic Event in North Korea on 12 May 2010". CTBTO SnT 2015 oral presentation, video at https://video-archive.ctbto.org/index.php/kmc/preview/partner_id/103/uiconf_id/4421629/entry_id/0_ymmtpps0/delivery/http

  3. Development of a Bayesian Belief Network Runway Incursion Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Lawrence L.

    2014-01-01

    In a previous paper, a statistical analysis of runway incursion (RI) events was conducted to ascertain their relevance to the top ten Technical Challenges (TC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). The study revealed connections to perhaps several of the AvSP top ten TC. That data also identified several primary causes and contributing factors for RI events that served as the basis for developing a system-level Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for RI events. The system-level BBN model will allow NASA to generically model the causes of RI events and to assess the effectiveness of technology products being developed under NASA funding. These products are intended to reduce the frequency of RI events in particular, and to improve runway safety in general. The development, structure and assessment of that BBN for RI events by a Subject Matter Expert panel are documented in this paper.

  4. Assessing Requirements Volatility and Risk Using Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Michael S.

    2010-01-01

    There are many factors that affect the level of requirements volatility a system experiences over its lifecycle and the risk that volatility imparts. Improper requirements generation, undocumented user expectations, conflicting design decisions, and anticipated / unanticipated world states are representative of these volatility factors. Combined, these volatility factors can increase programmatic risk and adversely affect successful system development. This paper proposes that a Bayesian Network can be used to support reasonable judgments concerning the most likely sources and types of requirements volatility a developing system will experience prior to starting development and by doing so it is possible to predict the level of requirements volatility the system will experience over its lifecycle. This assessment offers valuable insight to the system's developers, particularly by providing a starting point for risk mitigation planning and execution.

  5. Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Context-Aware Fall Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory Koshmak

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Fall incidents among the elderly often occur in the home and can cause serious injuries affecting their independent living. This paper presents an approach where data from wearable sensors integrated in a smart home environment is combined using a dynamic Bayesian network. The smart home environment provides contextual data, obtained from environmental sensors, and contributes to assessing a fall risk probability. The evaluation of the developed system is performed through simulation. Each time step is represented by a single user activity and interacts with a fall sensors located on a mobile device. A posterior probability is calculated for each recognized activity or contextual information. The output of the system provides a total risk assessment of falling given a response from the fall sensor.

  6. Designing and testing inflationary models with Bayesian networks

    CERN Document Server

    Price, Layne C; Frazer, Jonathan; Easther, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Even simple inflationary scenarios have many free parameters. Beyond the variables appearing in the inflationary action, these include dynamical initial conditions, the number of fields, and couplings to other sectors. These quantities are often ignored but cosmological observables can depend on the unknown parameters. We use Bayesian networks to account for a large set of inflationary parameters, deriving generative models for the primordial spectra that are conditioned on a hierarchical set of prior probabilities describing the initial conditions, reheating physics, and other free parameters. We use $N_f$--quadratic inflation as an illustrative example, finding that the number of $e$-folds $N_*$ between horizon exit for the pivot scale and the end of inflation is typically the most important parameter, even when the number of fields, their masses and initial conditions are unknown, along with possible conditional dependencies between these parameters.

  7. The neighborhood MCMC sampler for learning Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alyami, Salem A.; Azad, A. K. M.; Keith, Jonathan M.

    2016-07-01

    Getting stuck in local maxima is a problem that arises while learning Bayesian networks (BNs) structures. In this paper, we studied a recently proposed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, called the Neighbourhood sampler (NS), and examined how efficiently it can sample BNs when local maxima are present. We assume that a posterior distribution f(N,E|D) has been defined, where D represents data relevant to the inference, N and E are the sets of nodes and directed edges, respectively. We illustrate the new approach by sampling from such a distribution, and inferring BNs. The simulations conducted in this paper show that the new learning approach substantially avoids getting stuck in local modes of the distribution, and achieves a more rapid rate of convergence, compared to other common algorithms e.g. the MCMC Metropolis-Hastings sampler.

  8. Reduced complexity turbo equalization using a dynamic Bayesian network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myburgh, Hermanus C.; Olivier, Jan C.; van Zyl, Augustinus J.

    2012-12-01

    It is proposed that a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is used to perform turbo equalization in a system transmitting information over a Rayleigh fading multipath channel. The DBN turbo equalizer (DBN-TE) is modeled on a single directed acyclic graph by relaxing the Markov assumption and allowing weak connections to past and future states. Its complexity is exponential in encoder constraint length and approximately linear in the channel memory length. Results show that the performance of the DBN-TE closely matches that of a traditional turbo equalizer that uses a maximum a posteriori equalizer and decoder pair. The DBN-TE achieves full convergence and near-optimal performance after small number of iterations.

  9. Models for Prediction, Explanation and Control: Recursive Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Casini

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The Recursive Bayesian Net (RBN formalism was originally developed for modelling nested causal relationships. In this paper we argue that the formalism can also be applied to modelling the hierarchical structure of mechanisms. The resulting network contains quantitative information about probabilities, as well as qualitative information about mechanistic structure and causal relations. Since information about probabilities, mechanisms and causal relations is vital for prediction, explanation and control respectively, an RBN can be applied to all these tasks. We show in particular how a simple two-level RBN can be used to model a mechanism in cancer science. The higher level of our model contains variables at the clinical level, while the lower level maps the structure of the cell's mechanism for apoptosis.

  10. Designing and testing inflationary models with Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Layne C. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States). Dept. of Physics; Auckland Univ. (New Zealand). Dept. of Physics; Peiris, Hiranya V. [Univ. College London (United Kingdom). Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; Frazer, Jonathan [DESY Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Univ. of the Basque Country, Bilbao (Spain). Dept. of Theoretical Physics; Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao (Spain). IKERBASQUE; Easther, Richard [Auckland Univ. (New Zealand). Dept. of Physics

    2015-11-15

    Even simple inflationary scenarios have many free parameters. Beyond the variables appearing in the inflationary action, these include dynamical initial conditions, the number of fields, and couplings to other sectors. These quantities are often ignored but cosmological observables can depend on the unknown parameters. We use Bayesian networks to account for a large set of inflationary parameters, deriving generative models for the primordial spectra that are conditioned on a hierarchical set of prior probabilities describing the initial conditions, reheating physics, and other free parameters. We use N{sub f}-quadratic inflation as an illustrative example, finding that the number of e-folds N{sub *} between horizon exit for the pivot scale and the end of inflation is typically the most important parameter, even when the number of fields, their masses and initial conditions are unknown, along with possible conditional dependencies between these parameters.

  11. Aggregated Residential Load Modeling Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vlachopoulou, Maria; Chin, George; Fuller, Jason C.; Lu, Shuai

    2014-09-28

    Abstract—It is already obvious that the future power grid will have to address higher demand for power and energy, and to incorporate renewable resources of different energy generation patterns. Demand response (DR) schemes could successfully be used to manage and balance power supply and demand under operating conditions of the future power grid. To achieve that, more advanced tools for DR management of operations and planning are necessary that can estimate the available capacity from DR resources. In this research, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is derived, trained, and tested that can model aggregated load of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. DBNs can provide flexible and powerful tools for both operations and planing, due to their unique analytical capabilities. The DBN model accuracy and flexibility of use is demonstrated by testing the model under different operational scenarios.

  12. Inference-less Density Estimation using Copula Bayesian Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Elidan, Gal

    2012-01-01

    We consider learning continuous probabilistic graphical models in the face of missing data. For non-Gaussian models, learning the parameters and structure of such models depends on our ability to perform efficient inference, and can be prohibitive even for relatively modest domains. Recently, we introduced the Copula Bayesian Network (CBN) density model - a flexible framework that captures complex high-dimensional dependency structures while offering direct control over the univariate marginals, leading to improved generalization. In this work we show that the CBN model also offers significant computational advantages when training data is partially observed. Concretely, we leverage on the specialized form of the model to derive a computationally amenable learning objective that is a lower bound on the log-likelihood function. Importantly, our energy-like bound circumvents the need for costly inference of an auxiliary distribution, thus facilitating practical learning of highdimensional densities. We demonstr...

  13. FUZZY CLUSTERING BASED BAYESIAN FRAMEWORK TO PREDICT MENTAL HEALTH PROBLEMS AMONG CHILDREN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M R Sumathi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available According to World Health Organization, 10-20% of children and adolescents all over the world are experiencing mental disorders. Correct diagnosis of mental disorders at an early stage improves the quality of life of children and avoids complicated problems. Various expert systems using artificial intelligence techniques have been developed for diagnosing mental disorders like Schizophrenia, Depression, Dementia, etc. This study focuses on predicting basic mental health problems of children, like Attention problem, Anxiety problem, Developmental delay, Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD, Pervasive Developmental Disorder(PDD, etc. using the machine learning techniques, Bayesian Networks and Fuzzy clustering. The focus of the article is on learning the Bayesian network structure using a novel Fuzzy Clustering Based Bayesian network structure learning framework. The performance of the proposed framework was compared with the other existing algorithms and the experimental results have shown that the proposed framework performs better than the earlier algorithms.

  14. Analysis of lifestyle and metabolic predictors of visceral obesity with Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Morais Sérgio

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study was to provide a framework for the analysis of visceral obesity and its determinants in women, where complex inter-relationships are observed among lifestyle, nutritional and metabolic predictors. Thirty-four predictors related to lifestyle, adiposity, body fat distribution, blood lipids and adipocyte sizes have been considered as potential correlates of visceral obesity in women. To properly address the difficulties in managing such interactions given our limited sample of 150 women, bootstrapped Bayesian networks were constructed based on novel constraint-based learning methods that appeared recently in the statistical learning community. Statistical significance of edge strengths was evaluated and the less reliable edges were pruned to increase the network robustness. To allow accessible interpretation and integrate biological knowledge into the final network, several undirected edges were afterwards directed with physiological expertise according to relevant literature. Results Extensive experiments on synthetic data sampled from a known Bayesian network show that the algorithm, called Recursive Hybrid Parents and Children (RHPC, outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms that appeared in the recent literature. Regarding biological plausibility, we found that the inference results obtained with the proposed method were in excellent agreement with biological knowledge. For example, these analyses indicated that visceral adipose tissue accumulation is strongly related to blood lipid alterations independent of overall obesity level. Conclusions Bayesian Networks are a useful tool for investigating and summarizing evidence when complex relationships exist among predictors, in particular, as in the case of multifactorial conditions like visceral obesity, when there is a concurrent incidence for several variables, interacting in a complex manner. The source code and the data sets used for the empirical tests

  15. Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part I: Forward models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd

    2011-01-01

    Prediction of coastal processes, including waves, currents, and sediment transport, can be obtained from a variety of detailed geophysical-process models with many simulations showing significant skill. This capability supports a wide range of research and applied efforts that can benefit from accurate numerical predictions. However, the predictions are only as accurate as the data used to drive the models and, given the large temporal and spatial variability of the surf zone, inaccuracies in data are unavoidable such that useful predictions require corresponding estimates of uncertainty. We demonstrate how a Bayesian-network model can be used to provide accurate predictions of wave-height evolution in the surf zone given very sparse and/or inaccurate boundary-condition data. The approach is based on a formal treatment of a data-assimilation problem that takes advantage of significant reduction of the dimensionality of the model system. We demonstrate that predictions of a detailed geophysical model of the wave evolution are reproduced accurately using a Bayesian approach. In this surf-zone application, forward prediction skill was 83%, and uncertainties in the model inputs were accurately transferred to uncertainty in output variables. We also demonstrate that if modeling uncertainties were not conveyed to the Bayesian network (i.e., perfect data or model were assumed), then overly optimistic prediction uncertainties were computed. More consistent predictions and uncertainties were obtained by including model-parameter errors as a source of input uncertainty. Improved predictions (skill of 90%) were achieved because the Bayesian network simultaneously estimated optimal parameters while predicting wave heights.

  16. 基于贝叶斯网络的车辆目标功能毁伤评估模型%Assessment of Function Damage Effect to Vehicle Based on Bayesian Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    程浩; 刘俊友; 赵瑾

    2015-01-01

    According to the analysis of damage characteristics on vehicle target and applying reasoning advantage with Bayesian network theory in resolving the uncertain events ,the Bayesian network evaluation model is established .On the ba‐sis of the analysis of physic damage information ,the building process of Bayesian network model are discussed and an exam‐ple verifies the validity in damage assessment and reasoning with Bayesian network .%应用贝叶斯网络在解决不确定性事件方面的推理优势,根据车辆目标的毁伤特征分析建立了贝叶斯网络功能毁伤评估模型。在目标物理毁伤信息分析的基础上,通过实例演示了评估过程,验证了用贝叶斯网络进行功能毁伤评估的可行性与有效性。

  17. Formation Attacking Ground Targets Effectiveness Evaluation Based on Bayesian Network%贝叶斯网络的编队对地攻击作战效能评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    穆中林; 廖俊; 于雷

    2012-01-01

    针对影响编队作战效能的不确定性因素,提出基于灰色模糊贝叶斯网络的作战效能评估模型.该模型首先将不确定性因素分为灰色模糊域和概率域两大类,然后在灰色模糊域使用灰色模糊综合评判对不确定性因素进行评判,并运用可能性概率转换理论将评判结果转换为概率域知识,最后在概率知识域使用贝叶斯网络推理算法得到作战效能评估指标值.实例计算表明,该方法能够较好地量化处理不确定性知识,具有一定的实用性.%To process the uncertain factors which influence the formation combat effectiveness, a model of operational effectiveness evaluation based on gray-fuzzy Bayesian network was proposed. The uncertain factors were divided into gray-vagueness domain and probability domain. The gray-vague factors were handled by gray-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and then the result was translated into the probabilistic type by the possibility/probability transformation theory. All the uncertain factors were figured in probabilistic type and processed by Bayesian network to produce the result of the evaluation index. An example indicates that the method can well quantify the uncertain factors, and so it is practicable.

  18. Intelligent Evaluation Method for Tank Bottom Corrosion Based on Bayesian Networks%储罐底板腐蚀状况的贝叶斯网络智能评价方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张颖; 陈荣刚; 韩丽艳; 张永功

    2012-01-01

    Based on Bayesian networks and using related external factors of the tank bottom corrosion, as well as combined with experts' experience in the field, the Bayesian networks intelligent evaluation model for tank bottom corrosion was established with random repeated hill climbing algorithm and other four heuristic algorithms. Comparing prediction results with acoustic emission testing results shows that the average accuracy rati-o can reach 92% , and this prediction technique can resolve the problem in tank bottom corrosion prediction, as well as can be used in engineering applications.%以贝叶斯网络为基础,利用与储罐底板腐蚀相关的外部表征因素,结合领域专家经验,采用随机重启爬山算法等5种启发式算法,构建储罐底板腐蚀状况贝叶斯网络智能评价模型.对比样本预测结果可知:随机重启爬山算法构建的网络模型预测能力优于其他4种算法学习的网络结构,平均准确率为92%.预测结果表明,该预测模型可解决储罐底板腐蚀状况的预测问题,具有一定的工程应用价值.

  19. Selection of Detection Strategy for Diesel Engine Based on Bayesian Network and Boolean Logic%基于贝叶斯网络和布尔逻辑的柴油机测试策略选择方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭迎春; 刘建敏; 张伏龙; 乔新勇; 王涛

    2013-01-01

    A method for selecting the detection strategy was put forward based on the Bayesian network and Boolean logic , taking the information increment combined with the test cost as the preferred criterion .With the Bayesian network ,the rela-tions of fault mode with its influential factors and testable resources were built and the testing scheme was designed .Consider-ing the restriction conditions such as fault probability ,information entropy and test cost ,the scheme was optimized with the Boolean logic .For the power shortage of a tank diesel engine ,the corresponding test strategy was determined .%提出了一种以贝叶斯网络和布尔逻辑算法为基础,将信息增量与测试费用结合作为优选判据的测试策略选择方法。利用贝叶斯网络建立了故障模式与故障影响因素、可测试资源的关系模型,设计了测试方案,考虑故障概率、信息熵、测试费用等约束条件,利用布尔逻辑算法对测试方案进行了优化选择。以某型坦克柴油机动力不足故障模式为例,实现了柴油机动力不足的测试策略选择。

  20. Bayesian adaptive combination of short-term wind speed forecasts from neural network models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Gong; Shi, Jing; Zhou, Junyi [Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, North Dakota State University, Dept. 2485, PO Box 6050, Fargo, ND 58108 (United States)

    2011-01-15

    Short-term wind speed forecasting is of great importance for wind farm operations and the integration of wind energy into the power grid system. Adaptive and reliable methods and techniques of wind speed forecasts are urgently needed in view of the stochastic nature of wind resource varying from time to time and from site to site. This paper presents a robust two-step methodology for accurate wind speed forecasting based on Bayesian combination algorithm, and three neural network models, namely, adaptive linear element network (ADALINE), backpropagation (BP) network, and radial basis function (RBF) network. The hourly average wind speed data from two North Dakota sites are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results indicate that, while the performances of the neural networks are not consistent in forecasting 1-h-ahead wind speed for the two sites or under different evaluation metrics, the Bayesian combination method can always provide adaptive, reliable and comparatively accurate forecast results. The proposed methodology provides a unified approach to tackle the challenging model selection issue in wind speed forecasting. (author)

  1. Prediction of vehicle traffic accidents using Bayesian networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Shamseddin Alizadeh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Every year, thousands of vehicle accidents occur in Iran and result thousands of deaths, injuries and material damage in country. Various factors such as driver characteristics, road characteristics, vehicle characteristics and atmospheric conditions affect the injuries severity of these accidents. In order to reduce the number and severity of these accidents, their analysis and prediction is essential. Currently, the accidents related data are collected which can be used to predict and prevent them. New technologies have enabled humans to collect the large volume of data in continuous and regular ways. One of these methods is to use Bayesian networks. Using the literature review, in this study a new method for analysis and prediction of vehicle traffic accidents is presented. These networks can be used for classification of traffic accidents, hazardous locations of roads and factors affecting accidents severity. Using of the results of the analysis of these networks will help to reduce the number of accidents and their severity. In addition, we can use the results of this analysis for developing of safety regulations.

  2. Exact Structure Discovery in Bayesian Networks with Less Space

    CERN Document Server

    Parviainen, Pekka

    2012-01-01

    The fastest known exact algorithms for scorebased structure discovery in Bayesian networks on n nodes run in time and space 2nnO(1). The usage of these algorithms is limited to networks on at most around 25 nodes mainly due to the space requirement. Here, we study space-time tradeoffs for finding an optimal network structure. When little space is available, we apply the Gurevich-Shelah recurrence-originally proposed for the Hamiltonian path problem-and obtain time 22n-snO(1) in space 2snO(1) for any s = n/2, n/4, n/8, . . .; we assume the indegree of each node is bounded by a constant. For the more practical setting with moderate amounts of space, we present a novel scheme. It yields running time 2n(3/2)pnO(1) in space 2n(3/4)pnO(1) for any p = 0, 1, . . ., n/2; these bounds hold as long as the indegrees are at most 0.238n. Furthermore, the latter scheme allows easy and efficient parallelization beyond previous algorithms. We also explore empirically the potential of the presented techniques.

  3. A Bayesian network decision model for supporting the diagnosis of dementia, Alzheimer׳s disease and mild cognitive impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seixas, Flávio Luiz; Zadrozny, Bianca; Laks, Jerson; Conci, Aura; Muchaluat Saade, Débora Christina

    2014-08-01

    Population aging has been occurring as a global phenomenon with heterogeneous consequences in both developed and developing countries. Neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer׳s Disease (AD), have high prevalence in the elderly population. Early diagnosis of this type of disease allows early treatment and improves patient quality of life. This paper proposes a Bayesian network decision model for supporting diagnosis of dementia, AD and Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). Bayesian networks are well-suited for representing uncertainty and causality, which are both present in clinical domains. The proposed Bayesian network was modeled using a combination of expert knowledge and data-oriented modeling. The network structure was built based on current diagnostic criteria and input from physicians who are experts in this domain. The network parameters were estimated using a supervised learning algorithm from a dataset of real clinical cases. The dataset contains data from patients and normal controls from the Duke University Medical Center (Washington, USA) and the Center for Alzheimer׳s Disease and Related Disorders (at the Institute of Psychiatry of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). The dataset attributes consist of predisposal factors, neuropsychological test results, patient demographic data, symptoms and signs. The decision model was evaluated using quantitative methods and a sensitivity analysis. In conclusion, the proposed Bayesian network showed better results for diagnosis of dementia, AD and MCI when compared to most of the other well-known classifiers. Moreover, it provides additional useful information to physicians, such as the contribution of certain factors to diagnosis.

  4. A Vertical Handoff Algorithm for Multi-network Coexistence Based on Bayesian Dicision%多网络共存下基于贝叶斯的垂直切换算法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孔令斌; 王军选; 孙长印

    2016-01-01

    To solve the problem that current vertical switching technologies generally cannot support vertical handover in multi-network handover,this paper proposes an improved vertical handover algorithm based on Bayesian Decision Theory. First, the handover probability distribution associated with multi-condition is established according to the signal strength of access network,bit error rate( BER) ,blocking rate and actual demand on network from different customer service to calculate a priori handover probability. Then, the posterior probability is calculated on account of the Bayesian Decision Algorithm to perform a dicision com-parison,thereby selecting an optimal access network. Simulation results indicate that the algorithm can not only effectively achieve vertical handover among the different wireless access technologies,avoid needless handover,improve the successful probability of handover, but also reduce the blocking of communication hotspots so as to provide users with better quality services when an average load of each network reaches 30% ~40%.%针对目前的垂直切换技术普遍不能满足多网络下的切换问题,提出了一种改进的基于贝叶斯决策的垂直切换算法。首先根据接入终端网络的信号强度、网络负载、误码率和网络阻塞率以及用户业务对网络的实际需求偏好建立多条件相关的切换概率分布,计算出先验切换概率;然后通过贝叶斯决策算法计算出后验概率来进行判决比较,从而选取最优的接入网络。仿真结果表明,该算法不仅能有效地实现不同接入技术之间的垂直切换,从而减少不必要的切换,提高了切换成功的概率,而且还能在维持各网络平均负载达到30%~40%时减轻通信热点的阻塞情况,为用户提供更优的服务质量。

  5. Assessment and Prediction of Water Quality in Mariculture Zone of Xiangshan Harbor Based on Bayesian Network%象山港海水养殖区贝叶斯网络水质评价及预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    滕丽华; 程利江; 王海丽; 杨季芳

    2012-01-01

    水质评价是水环境保护与管理的重要环节,传统的评价方法在处理评价中的不确定性、大量信息处理等方面存在局限性。贝叶斯网络可以有效地表达和分析不确定性问题,实现定性分析与定量分析的有机结合。以近10a来象山港海水养殖区的水质监测数据为样本数据,采用贝叶斯网络技术,建立反映各水质指标及水质级别之间相互关系和相互影响强度的贝叶斯网络模型。模型结构表明直接影响水质级别的水质指标为氨氮、化学需氧量、硝酸盐、无机磷和叶绿素a,而其他亚硝酸盐、无机氮等4个水质指标与水质级别存在间接的因果关系。对200条监测数据进行模型精度检验,结果表明,其预测精度达94.8%,Kappa指数为0.892,这说明采用贝叶斯网络技术对水质进行评价及预测是可行的。%Water quality assessment plays an important role in water environmental protection and management.Traditional methods have some limitations in dealing with the uncertainty in assessment and massive information.A Bayesian network model can effectively express and analyze uncertain problems and combine qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis.Based on the mornitoring data for nearly ten years in Xiang-shan harbor of Ningbo City,a Bayesian network model expressing the relationships and interactions between different water quality indexes and water quality levels was constructed by Bayesian network approach.The model structure indicated that ammonia nitrogen,COD,inorganic phosphorus,nitrate,and chlorophyll had direct effects on water quality level,whereas there was an indirect causality between other water quality indexes such as nitrite and inorganic nitrogen and water quality level.The results of the model validation using 200 monitoring data showed that the predictive precision reached 94.8% and the Kappa was 0.892,which suggests the Bayesian network is feasible for assessment and prediction

  6. The Appeal to Expert Opinion: Quantitative Support for a Bayesian Network Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Adam J L; Hahn, Ulrike; Madsen, Jens K; Hsu, Anne S

    2016-08-01

    The appeal to expert opinion is an argument form that uses the verdict of an expert to support a position or hypothesis. A previous scheme-based treatment of the argument form is formalized within a Bayesian network that is able to capture the critical aspects of the argument form, including the central considerations of the expert's expertise and trustworthiness. We propose this as an appropriate normative framework for the argument form, enabling the development and testing of quantitative predictions as to how people evaluate this argument, suggesting that such an approach might be beneficial to argumentation research generally. We subsequently present two experiments as an example of the potential for future research in this vein, demonstrating that participants' quantitative ratings of the convincingness of a proposition that has been supported with an appeal to expert opinion were broadly consistent with the predictions of the Bayesian model.

  7. Bayesian networks modeling for thermal error of numerical control machine tools

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xin-hua YAO; Jian-zhong FU; Zi-chen CHEN

    2008-01-01

    The interaction between the heat source location,its intensity,thermal expansion coefficient,the machine system configuration and the running environment creates complex thermal behavior of a machine tool,and also makes thermal error prediction difficult.To address this issue,a novel prediction method for machine tool thermal error based on Bayesian networks (BNs) was presented.The method described causal relationships of factors inducing thermal deformation by graph theory and estimated the thermal error by Bayesian statistical techniques.Due to the effective combination of domain knowledge and sampled data,the BN method could adapt to the change of running state of machine,and obtain satisfactory prediction accuracy.Ex-periments on spindle thermal deformation were conducted to evaluate the modeling performance.Experimental results indicate that the BN method performs far better than the least squares(LS)analysis in terms of modeling estimation accuracy.

  8. Dynamic Bayesian Networks in Classification-and-Ranking Architecture of Response Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aida Mustapha

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The first component in classification-and-ranking architecture is a Bayesian classifier that classifies user utterances into response classes based on their semantic and pragmatic interpretations. Bayesian networks are sufficient if data is limited to single user input utterance. However, if the classifier is able to collate features from a sequence of previous n-1 user utterances, the additional information may or may not improve the accuracy rate in response classification. Approach: This article investigates the use of dynamic Bayesian networks to include time-series information in the form of extended features from preceding utterances. The experiment was conducted on SCHISMA corpus, which is a mixed-initiative, transaction dialogue in theater reservation. Results: The results show that classification accuracy is improved, but rather insignificantly. The accuracy rate tends to deteriorate as time-span of dialogue is increased. Conclusion: Although every response utterance reflects form and behavior that are expected by the preceding utterance, influence of meaning and intentions diminishes throughout time as the conversation stretches to longer duration.

  9. Experimental design and Bayesian networks for enhancement of delta-endotoxin production by Bacillus thuringiensis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ennouri, Karim; Ayed, Rayda Ben; Hassen, Hanen Ben; Mazzarello, Maura; Ottaviani, Ennio

    2015-12-01

    Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) is a Gram-positive bacterium. The entomopathogenic activity of Bt is related to the existence of the crystal consisting of protoxins, also called delta-endotoxins. In order to optimize and explain the production of delta-endotoxins of Bacillus thuringiensis kurstaki, we studied seven medium components: soybean meal, starch, KH₂PO₄, K₂HPO₄, FeSO₄, MnSO₄, and MgSO₄and their relationships with the concentration of delta-endotoxins using an experimental design (Plackett-Burman design) and Bayesian networks modelling. The effects of the ingredients of the culture medium on delta-endotoxins production were estimated. The developed model showed that different medium components are important for the Bacillus thuringiensis fermentation. The most important factors influenced the production of delta-endotoxins are FeSO₄, K2HPO₄, starch and soybean meal. Indeed, it was found that soybean meal, K₂HPO₄, KH₂PO₄and starch also showed positive effect on the delta-endotoxins production. However, FeSO4 and MnSO4 expressed opposite effect. The developed model, based on Bayesian techniques, can automatically learn emerging models in data to serve in the prediction of delta-endotoxins concentrations. The constructed model in the present study implies that experimental design (Plackett-Burman design) joined with Bayesian networks method could be used for identification of effect variables on delta-endotoxins variation.

  10. Probabilistic age classification with Bayesian networks: A study on the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sironi, Emanuele; Pinchi, Vilma; Taroni, Franco

    2016-01-01

    In the past few decades, the rise of criminal, civil and asylum cases involving young people lacking valid identification documents has generated an increase in the demand of age estimation. The chronological age or the probability that an individual is older or younger than a given age threshold are generally estimated by means of some statistical methods based on observations performed on specific physical attributes. Among these statistical methods, those developed in the Bayesian framework allow users to provide coherent and transparent assignments which fulfill forensic and medico-legal purposes. The application of the Bayesian approach is facilitated by using probabilistic graphical tools, such as Bayesian networks. The aim of this work is to test the performances of the Bayesian network for age estimation recently presented in scientific literature in classifying individuals as older or younger than 18 years of age. For these exploratory analyses, a sample related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis available in scientific literature was used. Results obtained in the classification are promising: in the criminal context, the Bayesian network achieved, on the average, a rate of correct classifications of approximatively 97%, whilst in the civil context, the rate is, on the average, close to the 88%. These results encourage the continuation of the development and the testing of the method in order to support its practical application in casework.

  11. 基于分层贝叶斯网络的反潜编队对潜威胁估计%Method for Evaluate Threat of Anti-submarine War Fleet to Submarine Based on Hierarchical Bayesian Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王小龙; 宋裕农; 丁文强

    2014-01-01

    应用贝叶斯网络模型进行威胁估计是当前研究的热点和难点。提出了应用分层贝叶斯网络模型构建威胁估计网络,用于估计反潜编队对潜威胁等级。首先,对分层贝叶斯网络模型进行了简要的阐述,并对利用该模型进行威胁估计的可行性进行了分析。其次,分析了反潜编队对潜威胁产生的原因和机理,在此基础上,构建了威胁估计网络。最后,通过算例仿真验证了威胁估计网络的有效性。%Usage of bayesian network for threat evaluation is a hot and difficult problem. The threat evaluation network is constructed by the method of the bayesian network,which uses for evaluating the threat level of the anti-submarine war fleet. First,the principle of the bayesian network is constructed,and the feasibility of using bayesian network is analyzed for threat evaluation. Second, the causes and mechanism of the anti-submarine fleet submarine threat is analyzed,on this basis,the threat evaluation network is constructed. Finally,simulation experiment is used to verify the validity of the threat evaluation network constructed.

  12. Spike-Based Bayesian-Hebbian Learning of Temporal Sequences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip J Tully

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Many cognitive and motor functions are enabled by the temporal representation and processing of stimuli, but it remains an open issue how neocortical microcircuits can reliably encode and replay such sequences of information. To better understand this, a modular attractor memory network is proposed in which meta-stable sequential attractor transitions are learned through changes to synaptic weights and intrinsic excitabilities via the spike-based Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN learning rule. We find that the formation of distributed memories, embodied by increased periods of firing in pools of excitatory neurons, together with asymmetrical associations between these distinct network states, can be acquired through plasticity. The model's feasibility is demonstrated using simulations of adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire model neurons (AdEx. We show that the learning and speed of sequence replay depends on a confluence of biophysically relevant parameters including stimulus duration, level of background noise, ratio of synaptic currents, and strengths of short-term depression and adaptation. Moreover, sequence elements are shown to flexibly participate multiple times in the sequence, suggesting that spiking attractor networks of this type can support an efficient combinatorial code. The model provides a principled approach towards understanding how multiple interacting plasticity mechanisms can coordinate hetero-associative learning in unison.

  13. Spike-Based Bayesian-Hebbian Learning of Temporal Sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tully, Philip J; Lindén, Henrik; Hennig, Matthias H; Lansner, Anders

    2016-05-01

    Many cognitive and motor functions are enabled by the temporal representation and processing of stimuli, but it remains an open issue how neocortical microcircuits can reliably encode and replay such sequences of information. To better understand this, a modular attractor memory network is proposed in which meta-stable sequential attractor transitions are learned through changes to synaptic weights and intrinsic excitabilities via the spike-based Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN) learning rule. We find that the formation of distributed memories, embodied by increased periods of firing in pools of excitatory neurons, together with asymmetrical associations between these distinct network states, can be acquired through plasticity. The model's feasibility is demonstrated using simulations of adaptive exponential integrate-and-fire model neurons (AdEx). We show that the learning and speed of sequence replay depends on a confluence of biophysically relevant parameters including stimulus duration, level of background noise, ratio of synaptic currents, and strengths of short-term depression and adaptation. Moreover, sequence elements are shown to flexibly participate multiple times in the sequence, suggesting that spiking attractor networks of this type can support an efficient combinatorial code. The model provides a principled approach towards understanding how multiple interacting plasticity mechanisms can coordinate hetero-associative learning in unison.

  14. Making Supply Chains Resilient to Floods Using a Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haraguchi, M.

    2015-12-01

    Natural hazards distress the global economy by disrupting the interconnected supply chain networks. Manufacturing companies have created cost-efficient supply chains by reducing inventories, streamlining logistics and limiting the number of suppliers. As a result, today's supply chains are profoundly susceptible to systemic risks. In Thailand, for example, the GDP growth rate declined by 76 % in 2011 due to prolonged flooding. Thailand incurred economic damage including the loss of USD 46.5 billion, approximately 70% of which was caused by major supply chain disruptions in the manufacturing sector. Similar problems occurred after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011, the Mississippi River floods and droughts during 2011 - 2013, and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This study proposes a methodology for modeling supply chain disruptions using a Bayesian network analysis (BNA) to estimate expected values of countermeasures of floods, such as inventory management, supplier management and hard infrastructure management. We first performed a spatio-temporal correlation analysis between floods and extreme precipitation data for the last 100 years at a global scale. Then we used a BNA to create synthetic networks that include variables associated with the magnitude and duration of floods, major components of supply chains and market demands. We also included decision variables of countermeasures that would mitigate potential losses caused by supply chain disruptions. Finally, we conducted a cost-benefit analysis by estimating the expected values of these potential countermeasures while conducting a sensitivity analysis. The methodology was applied to supply chain disruptions caused by the 2011 Thailand floods. Our study demonstrates desirable typical data requirements for the analysis, such as anonymized supplier network data (i.e. critical dependencies, vulnerability information of suppliers) and sourcing data(i.e. locations of suppliers, and production rates and

  15. Rational Irrationality: Modeling Climate Change Belief Polarization Using Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, John; Lewandowsky, Stephan

    2016-01-01

    Belief polarization is said to occur when two people respond to the same evidence by updating their beliefs in opposite directions. This response is considered to be "irrational" because it involves contrary updating, a form of belief updating that appears to violate normatively optimal responding, as for example dictated by Bayes' theorem. In light of much evidence that people are capable of normatively optimal behavior, belief polarization presents a puzzling exception. We show that Bayesian networks, or Bayes nets, can simulate rational belief updating. When fit to experimental data, Bayes nets can help identify the factors that contribute to polarization. We present a study into belief updating concerning the reality of climate change in response to information about the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW). The study used representative samples of Australian and U.S. Among Australians, consensus information partially neutralized the influence of worldview, with free-market supporters showing a greater increase in acceptance of human-caused global warming relative to free-market opponents. In contrast, while consensus information overall had a positive effect on perceived consensus among U.S. participants, there was a reduction in perceived consensus and acceptance of human-caused global warming for strong supporters of unregulated free markets. Fitting a Bayes net model to the data indicated that under a Bayesian framework, free-market support is a significant driver of beliefs about climate change and trust in climate scientists. Further, active distrust of climate scientists among a small number of U.S. conservatives drives contrary updating in response to consensus information among this particular group. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  16. A Bayesian Belief Network of Threat Anticipation and Terrorist Motivations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olama, Mohammed M [ORNL; Allgood, Glenn O [ORNL; Davenport, Kristen M [ORNL; Schryver, Jack C [ORNL

    2010-01-01

    Recent events highlight the need for efficient tools for anticipating the threat posed by terrorists, whether individual or groups. Antiterrorism includes fostering awareness of potential threats, deterring aggressors, developing security measures, planning for future events, halting an event in process, and ultimately mitigating and managing the consequences of an event. To analyze such components, one must understand various aspects of threat elements like physical assets and their economic and social impacts. To this aim, we developed a three-layer Bayesian belief network (BBN) model that takes into consideration the relative threat of an attack against a particular asset (physical layer) as well as the individual psychology and motivations that would induce a person to either act alone or join a terrorist group and commit terrorist acts (social and economic layers). After researching the many possible motivations to become a terrorist, the main factors are compiled and sorted into categories such as initial and personal indicators, exclusion factors, and predictive behaviors. Assessing such threats requires combining information from disparate data sources most of which involve uncertainties. BBN combines these data in a coherent, analytically defensible, and understandable manner. The developed BBN model takes into consideration the likelihood and consequence of a threat in order to draw inferences about the risk of a terrorist attack so that mitigation efforts can be optimally deployed. The model is constructed using a network engineering process that treats the probability distributions of all the BBN nodes within the broader context of the system development process.

  17. A Bayesian belief network of threat anticipation and terrorist motivations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olama, Mohammed M.; Allgood, Glenn O.; Davenport, Kristen M.; Schryver, Jack C.

    2010-04-01

    Recent events highlight the need for efficient tools for anticipating the threat posed by terrorists, whether individual or groups. Antiterrorism includes fostering awareness of potential threats, deterring aggressors, developing security measures, planning for future events, halting an event in process, and ultimately mitigating and managing the consequences of an event. To analyze such components, one must understand various aspects of threat elements like physical assets and their economic and social impacts. To this aim, we developed a three-layer Bayesian belief network (BBN) model that takes into consideration the relative threat of an attack against a particular asset (physical layer) as well as the individual psychology and motivations that would induce a person to either act alone or join a terrorist group and commit terrorist acts (social and economic layers). After researching the many possible motivations to become a terrorist, the main factors are compiled and sorted into categories such as initial and personal indicators, exclusion factors, and predictive behaviors. Assessing such threats requires combining information from disparate data sources most of which involve uncertainties. BBN combines these data in a coherent, analytically defensible, and understandable manner. The developed BBN model takes into consideration the likelihood and consequence of a threat in order to draw inferences about the risk of a terrorist attack so that mitigation efforts can be optimally deployed. The model is constructed using a network engineering process that treats the probability distributions of all the BBN nodes within the broader context of the system development process.

  18. Learning Discriminative Bayesian Networks from High-Dimensional Continuous Neuroimaging Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Luping; Wang, Lei; Liu, Lingqiao; Ogunbona, Philip; Shen, Dinggang

    2016-11-01

    Due to its causal semantics, Bayesian networks (BN) have been widely employed to discover the underlying data relationship in exploratory studies, such as brain research. Despite its success in modeling the probability distribution of variables, BN is naturally a generative model, which is not necessarily discriminative. This may cause the ignorance of subtle but critical network changes that are of investigation values across populations. In this paper, we propose to improve the discriminative power of BN models for continuous variables from two different perspectives. This brings two general discriminative learning frameworks for Gaussian Bayesian networks (GBN). In the first framework, we employ Fisher kernel to bridge the generative models of GBN and the discriminative classifiers of SVMs, and convert the GBN parameter learning to Fisher kernel learning via minimizing a generalization error bound of SVMs. In the second framework, we employ the max-margin criterion and build it directly upon GBN models to explicitly optimize the classification performance of the GBNs. The advantages and disadvantages of the two frameworks are discussed and experimentally compared. Both of them demonstrate strong power in learning discriminative parameters of GBNs for neuroimaging based brain network analysis, as well as maintaining reasonable representation capacity. The contributions of this paper also include a new Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) constraint with theoretical guarantee to ensure the graph validity of GBN.

  19. A new Bayesian network-based risk stratification model for prediction of short-term and long-term LVAD mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loghmanpour, Natasha A; Kanwar, Manreet K; Druzdzel, Marek J; Benza, Raymond L; Murali, Srinivas; Antaki, James F

    2015-01-01

    Existing risk assessment tools for patient selection for left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) such as the Destination Therapy Risk Score and HeartMate II Risk Score (HMRS) have limited predictive ability. This study aims to overcome the limitations of traditional statistical methods by performing the first application of Bayesian analysis to the comprehensive Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support dataset and comparing it to HMRS. We retrospectively analyzed 8,050 continuous flow LVAD patients and 226 preimplant variables. We then derived Bayesian models for mortality at each of five time end-points postimplant (30 days, 90 days, 6 month, 1 year, and 2 years), achieving accuracies of 95%, 90%, 90%, 83%, and 78%, Kappa values of 0.43, 0.37, 0.37, 0.45, and 0.43, and area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) of 91%, 82%, 82%, 80%, and 81%, respectively. This was in comparison to the HMRS with an ROC of 57% and 60% at 90 days and 1 year, respectively. Preimplant interventions, such as dialysis, ECMO, and ventilators were major contributing risk markers. Bayesian models have the ability to reliably represent the complex causal relations of multiple variables on clinical outcomes. Their potential to develop a reliable risk stratification tool for use in clinical decision making on LVAD patients encourages further investigation.

  20. Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part II: Inverse models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd

    2011-01-01

    A Bayesian network model has been developed to simulate a relatively simple problem of wave propagation in the surf zone (detailed in Part I). Here, we demonstrate that this Bayesian model can provide both inverse modeling and data-assimilation solutions for predicting offshore wave heights and depth estimates given limited wave-height and depth information from an onshore location. The inverse method is extended to allow data assimilation using observational inputs that are not compatible with deterministic solutions of the problem. These inputs include sand bar positions (instead of bathymetry) and estimates of the intensity of wave breaking (instead of wave-height observations). Our results indicate that wave breaking information is essential to reduce prediction errors. In many practical situations, this information could be provided from a shore-based observer or from remote-sensing systems. We show that various combinations of the assimilated inputs significantly reduce the uncertainty in the estimates of water depths and wave heights in the model domain. Application of the Bayesian network model to new field data demonstrated significant predictive skill (R2 = 0.7) for the inverse estimate of a month-long time series of offshore wave heights. The Bayesian inverse results include uncertainty estimates that were shown to be most accurate when given uncertainty in the inputs (e.g., depth and tuning parameters). Furthermore, the inverse modeling was extended to directly estimate tuning parameters associated with the underlying wave-process model. The inverse estimates of the model parameters not only showed an offshore wave height dependence consistent with results of previous studies but the uncertainty estimates of the tuning parameters also explain previously reported variations in the model parameters.

  1. Research on Threat Assessment to Aerial Target Based on Bayesian Network%基于贝叶斯网络的空中目标威胁估计方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱波; 方立恭; 金钊

    2011-01-01

    针对当前威胁估计中存在的问题,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的空中目标威胁估计方法.从威胁估计的概念出发,构建了基于贝叶斯网络的威胁估计功能框架,在对输入的防空作战事件进行分类定义的基础上,给出了事件关联在贝叶斯网络中的实现方法,同时对模型的建立步骤进行了说明.在融合了目标威胁先验信息的基础上,通过战场观测到的不确定信息进行推理,威胁估计结果具有很强的可信性,相应的建模思路可为威胁估计系统的构建提供有益的参考.最后以一个示例说明了该方法的有效性.%Aimming at the present problems existing in threat assessment, a novel air defense oriented threat assessment method based on bayesian network is proposed in this paper. In the view of threat assessment's definition, a function framework which is based on bayseian network is built up. Meanwhile, by the classification definition of input air defense events, the corresponding implement approach of event correlation in bayesian network is presented, among which the modeling procedure is described in detail. By combing the prior information of threat assessment, the threat assessment method presented in this paper employs the uncertain information which is obtained from the battlefield observation to carry out the inference, the result of which has strong dependability. Also, the relevant modeling thread can provide a reference for building the threat assessment system. Finally, a demonstration is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the method.

  2. A new approach for supply chain risk management: Mapping SCOR into Bayesian network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Abolghasemi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Increase of costs and complexities in organizations beside the increase of uncertainty and risks have led the managers to use the risk management in order to decrease risk taking and deviation from goals. SCRM has a close relationship with supply chain performance. During the years different methods have been used by researchers in order to manage supply chain risk but most of them are either qualitative or quantitative. Supply chain operation reference (SCOR is a standard model for SCP evaluation which have uncertainty in its metrics. In This paper by combining qualitative and quantitative metrics of SCOR, supply chain performance will be measured by Bayesian Networks. Design/methodology/approach: First qualitative assessment will be done by recognizing uncertain metrics of SCOR model and then by quantifying them, supply chain performance will be measured by Bayesian Networks (BNs and supply chain operations reference (SCOR in which making decision on uncertain variables will be done by predictive and diagnostic capabilities. Findings: After applying the proposed method in one of the biggest automotive companies in Iran, we identified key factors of supply chain performance based on SCOR model through predictive and diagnostic capability of Bayesian Networks. After sensitivity analysis, we find out that ‘Total cost’ and its criteria that include costs of labors, warranty, transportation and inventory have the widest range and most effect on supply chain performance. So, managers should take their importance into account for decision making. We can make decisions simply by running model in different situations. Research limitations/implications: A more precise model consisted of numerous factors but it is difficult and sometimes impossible to solve big models, if we insert all of them in a Bayesian model. We have adopted real world characteristics with our software and method abilities. On the other hand, fewer data exist for some

  3. A NEW SSH NETWORK COVERT CHANNEL DETECTION APPROACH BASED ON BAYESIAN CLASSIFIER%一种基于Bayesian分类器的SSH网络隐蔽信道检测方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邱桂华

    2012-01-01

    Covert channel is a transfer scheme which can leak confidential information in information system covertly. Network covert channel is crucial to network data security protection and even to cloud computing platform' s, and becomes the focus of the information security field. In this paper, we present an example of network time covert channel which is based on the time intervals of SSH packets. The SSH protocol-based interval characteristics are analysed and a new detection approach based on Bayesian classifier is designed. The experiment results show that the covert channels can be detected at the accurate rate of 95% using this approach, which shows that the detection performance is excellent.%隐蔽信道是一种能够以难以察觉的方式泄漏信息系统机密信息的通信方式.网络隐蔽信道是信息安全领域的研究热点,对保护网络数据安全以及于云计算平台数据安全至关重要.提出一种基于SSH数据包间隔时间的网络时间隐蔽信道实例;基于SSH协议的时间间隔特征,设计一种基于Bayesian分类器的检测方法;实验结果证明该检测方法能够达到95%的准确率,具有很好的检测性能.

  4. Mocapy++ - a toolkit for inference and learning in dynamic Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paluszewski, Martin; Hamelryck, Thomas Wim

    2010-01-01

    Background Mocapy++ is a toolkit for parameter learning and inference in dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). It supports a wide range of DBN architectures and probability distributions, including distributions from directional statistics (the statistics of angles, directions and orientations...

  5. Bayesian network as a modelling tool for risk management in agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Svend; Madsen, Anders L.; Lund, Mogens

    . In this paper we use Bayesian networks as an integrated modelling approach for representing uncertainty and analysing risk management in agriculture. It is shown how historical farm account data may be efficiently used to estimate conditional probabilities, which are the core elements in Bayesian network models....... We further show how the Bayesian network model RiBay is used for stochastic simulation of farm income, and we demonstrate how RiBay can be used to simulate risk management at the farm level. It is concluded that the key strength of a Bayesian network is the transparency of assumptions......The importance of risk management increases as farmers become more exposed to risk. But risk management is a difficult topic because income risk is the result of the complex interaction of multiple risk factors combined with the effect of an increasing array of possible risk management tools...

  6. Approach to the Correlation Discovery of Chinese Linguistic Parameters Based on Bayesian Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Wei(王玮); CAI LianHong(蔡莲红)

    2003-01-01

    Bayesian approach is an important method in statistics. The Bayesian belief network is a powerful knowledge representation and reasoning tool under the conditions of uncertainty.It is a graphics model that encodes probabilistic relationships among variables of interest. In this paper, an approach to Bayesian network construction is given for discovering the Chinese linguistic parameter relationship in the corpus.

  7. Reinforced concrete corrosion: Application of Bayesian networks to the risk management of a cooling tower

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capra, B.; Le Drogo, J.; Wolff, V.

    2006-11-01

    Degradation modelling of concrete structures uses uncertain variables and leads, using reliability assessment, to time dependant evolution of failure probabilities. However, only few data are generally available to feed models leading to two types of uncertainties: an intrinsic one depending on the modelled phenomena and one related to the precision of the measurement. Each new data available is a piece of information which allows to update the initial prediction. In this article, an example of updating process, based on a Bayesian network, is presented and applied on the corrosion risk of a cooling tower.

  8. Reinforced concrete corrosion: Application of Bayesian networks to the risk management of a cooling tower

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Capra, B.; Le Drogo, J.; Wolff, V. [OXAND S.A., 36 bis avenue F. Roosevelt, 77210 Avon (France)

    2006-07-01

    Degradation modelling of concrete structures uses uncertain variables and leads, using reliability assessment, to time dependant evolution of failure probabilities. However, only few data are generally available to feed models leading to two types of uncertainties: an intrinsic one depending on the modelled phenomena and one related to the precision of the measurement. Each new data available is a piece of information which allows to update the initial prediction. In this article, an example of updating process, based on a Bayesian network, is presented and applied on the corrosion risk of a cooling tower. (authors)

  9. Forecasting Rainfall Time Series with stochastic output approximated by neural networks Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian Rodriguez Rivero

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The annual estimate of the availability of the amount of water for the agricultural sector has become a lifetime in places where rainfall is scarce, as is the case of northwestern Argentina. This work proposes to model and simulate monthly rainfall time series from one geographical location of Catamarca, Valle El Viejo Portezuelo. In this sense, the time series prediction is mathematical and computational modelling series provided by monthly cumulative rainfall, which has stochastic output approximated by neural networks Bayesian approach. We propose to use an algorithm based on artificial neural networks (ANNs using the Bayesian inference. The result of the prediction consists of 20% of the provided data consisting of 2000 to 2010. A new analysis for modelling, simulation and computational prediction of cumulative rainfall from one geographical location is well presented. They are used as data information, only the historical time series of daily flows measured in mmH2O. Preliminary results of the annual forecast in mmH2O with a prediction horizon of one year and a half are presented, 18 months, respectively. The methodology employs artificial neural network based tools, statistical analysis and computer to complete the missing information and knowledge of the qualitative and quantitative behavior. They also show some preliminary results with different prediction horizons of the proposed filter and its comparison with the performance Gaussian process filter used in the literature.

  10. A Bayesian Framework for Combining Protein and Network Topology Information for Predicting Protein-Protein Interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birlutiu, Adriana; d'Alché-Buc, Florence; Heskes, Tom

    2015-01-01

    Computational methods for predicting protein-protein interactions are important tools that can complement high-throughput technologies and guide biologists in designing new laboratory experiments. The proteins and the interactions between them can be described by a network which is characterized by several topological properties. Information about proteins and interactions between them, in combination with knowledge about topological properties of the network, can be used for developing computational methods that can accurately predict unknown protein-protein interactions. This paper presents a supervised learning framework based on Bayesian inference for combining two types of information: i) network topology information, and ii) information related to proteins and the interactions between them. The motivation of our model is that by combining these two types of information one can achieve a better accuracy in predicting protein-protein interactions, than by using models constructed from these two types of information independently.

  11. Overview of methods of reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks: Boolean and Bayesian networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frolova A. O.

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks is an intensively studied topic in Systems Biology as it reconstructs regulatory interactions between all genes in the genome in the most complete form. The extreme computational complexity of this problem and lack of thorough reviews on reconstruction methods of gene regulatory network is a significant obstacle to further development of this area. In this article the two most common methods for modeling gene regulatory networks are surveyed: Boolean and Bayesian networks. The mathematical description of each method is given, as well as several algorithmic approaches to modeling gene networks using these methods; the complexity of algorithms and the problems that arise during its implementation are also noted.

  12. MATRIX-VECTOR ALGORITHMS OF LOCAL POSTERIORI INFERENCE IN ALGEBRAIC BAYESIAN NETWORKS ON QUANTA PROPOSITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Zolotin

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Posteriori inference is one of the three kinds of probabilistic-logic inferences in the probabilistic graphical models theory and the base for processing of knowledge patterns with probabilistic uncertainty using Bayesian networks. The paper deals with a task of local posteriori inference description in algebraic Bayesian networks that represent a class of probabilistic graphical models by means of matrix-vector equations. The latter are essentially based on the use of tensor product of matrices, Kronecker degree and Hadamard product. Matrix equations for calculating posteriori probabilities vectors within posteriori inference in knowledge patterns with quanta propositions are obtained. Similar equations of the same type have already been discussed within the confines of the theory of algebraic Bayesian networks, but they were built only for the case of posteriori inference in the knowledge patterns on the ideals of conjuncts. During synthesis and development of matrix-vector equations on quanta propositions probability vectors, a number of earlier results concerning normalizing factors in posteriori inference and assignment of linear projective operator with a selector vector was adapted. We consider all three types of incoming evidences - deterministic, stochastic and inaccurate - combined with scalar and interval estimation of probability truth of propositional formulas in the knowledge patterns. Linear programming problems are formed. Their solution gives the desired interval values of posterior probabilities in the case of inaccurate evidence or interval estimates in a knowledge pattern. That sort of description of a posteriori inference gives the possibility to extend the set of knowledge pattern types that we can use in the local and global posteriori inference, as well as simplify complex software implementation by use of existing third-party libraries, effectively supporting submission and processing of matrices and vectors when

  13. Scalable Bayesian modeling, monitoring and analysis of dynamic network flow data

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    Traffic flow count data in networks arise in many applications, such as automobile or aviation transportation, certain directed social network contexts, and Internet studies. Using an example of Internet browser traffic flow through site-segments of an international news website, we present Bayesian analyses of two linked classes of models which, in tandem, allow fast, scalable and interpretable Bayesian inference. We first develop flexible state-space models for streaming count data, able to...

  14. Bayesian Image Reconstruction Based on Voronoi Diagrams

    CERN Document Server

    Cabrera, G F; Hitschfeld, N

    2007-01-01

    We present a Bayesian Voronoi image reconstruction technique (VIR) for interferometric data. Bayesian analysis applied to the inverse problem allows us to derive the a-posteriori probability of a novel parameterization of interferometric images. We use a variable Voronoi diagram as our model in place of the usual fixed pixel grid. A quantization of the intensity field allows us to calculate the likelihood function and a-priori probabilities. The Voronoi image is optimized including the number of polygons as free parameters. We apply our algorithm to deconvolve simulated interferometric data. Residuals, restored images and chi^2 values are used to compare our reconstructions with fixed grid models. VIR has the advantage of modeling the image with few parameters, obtaining a better image from a Bayesian point of view.

  15. A multinomial logit model-Bayesian network hybrid approach for driver injury severity analyses in rear-end crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cong; Zhang, Guohui; Tarefder, Rafiqul; Ma, Jianming; Wei, Heng; Guan, Hongzhi

    2015-07-01

    Rear-end crash is one of the most common types of traffic crashes in the U.S. A good understanding of its characteristics and contributing factors is of practical importance. Previously, both multinomial Logit models and Bayesian network methods have been used in crash modeling and analysis, respectively, although each of them has its own application restrictions and limitations. In this study, a hybrid approach is developed to combine multinomial logit models and Bayesian network methods for comprehensively analyzing driver injury severities in rear-end crashes based on state-wide crash data collected in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011. A multinomial logit model is developed to investigate and identify significant contributing factors for rear-end crash driver injury severities classified into three categories: no injury, injury, and fatality. Then, the identified significant factors are utilized to establish a Bayesian network to explicitly formulate statistical associations between injury severity outcomes and explanatory attributes, including driver behavior, demographic features, vehicle factors, geometric and environmental characteristics, etc. The test results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid approach performs reasonably well. The Bayesian network reference analyses indicate that the factors including truck-involvement, inferior lighting conditions, windy weather conditions, the number of vehicles involved, etc. could significantly increase driver injury severities in rear-end crashes. The developed methodology and estimation results provide insights for developing effective countermeasures to reduce rear-end crash injury severities and improve traffic system safety performance.

  16. A novel Bayesian learning method for information aggregation in modular neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Pan; Xu, Lida; Zhou, Shang-Ming;

    2010-01-01

    Modular neural network is a popular neural network model which has many successful applications. In this paper, a sequential Bayesian learning (SBL) is proposed for modular neural networks aiming at efficiently aggregating the outputs of members of the ensemble. The experimental results on eight ...

  17. Dynamic safety assessment of natural gas stations using Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarei, Esmaeil; Azadeh, Ali; Khakzad, Nima; Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei; Mohammadfam, Iraj

    2017-01-05

    Pipelines are one of the most popular and effective ways of transporting hazardous materials, especially natural gas. However, the rapid development of gas pipelines and stations in urban areas has introduced a serious threat to public safety and assets. Although different methods have been developed for risk analysis of gas transportation systems, a comprehensive methodology for risk analysis is still lacking, especially in natural gas stations. The present work is aimed at developing a dynamic and comprehensive quantitative risk analysis (DCQRA) approach for accident scenario and risk modeling of natural gas stations. In this approach, a FMEA is used for hazard analysis while a Bow-tie diagram and Bayesian network are employed to model the worst-case accident scenario and to assess the risks. The results have indicated that the failure of the regulator system was the worst-case accident scenario with the human error as the most contributing factor. Thus, in risk management plan of natural gas stations, priority should be given to the most probable root events and main contribution factors, which have identified in the present study, in order to reduce the occurrence probability of the accident scenarios and thus alleviate the risks.

  18. Heterogeneous multimodal biomarkers analysis for Alzheimer's disease via Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Yan; Su, Yi; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; Huang, Shuai

    2016-12-01

    By 2050, it is estimated that the number of worldwide Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients will quadruple from the current number of 36 million, while no proven disease-modifying treatments are available. At present, the underlying disease mechanisms remain under investigation, and recent studies suggest that the disease involves multiple etiological pathways. To better understand the disease and develop treatment strategies, a number of ongoing studies including the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) enroll many study participants and acquire a large number of biomarkers from various modalities including demographic, genotyping, fluid biomarkers, neuroimaging, neuropsychometric test, and clinical assessments. However, a systematic approach that can integrate all the collected data is lacking. The overarching goal of our study is to use machine learning techniques to understand the relationships among different biomarkers and to establish a system-level model that can better describe the interactions among biomarkers and provide superior diagnostic and prognostic information. In this pilot study, we use Bayesian network (BN) to analyze multimodal data from ADNI, including demographics, volumetric MRI, PET, genotypes, and neuropsychometric measurements and demonstrate our approach to have superior prediction accuracy.

  19. Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert; Turecek, Aaron

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.

  20. Bayesian network model of crowd emotion and negative behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramli, Nurulhuda; Ghani, Noraida Abdul; Hatta, Zulkarnain Ahmad; Hashim, Intan Hashimah Mohd; Sulong, Jasni; Mahudin, Nor Diana Mohd; Rahman, Shukran Abd; Saad, Zarina Mat

    2014-12-01

    The effects of overcrowding have become a major concern for event organizers. One aspect of this concern has been the idea that overcrowding can enhance the occurrence of serious incidents during events. As one of the largest Muslim religious gathering attended by pilgrims from all over the world, Hajj has become extremely overcrowded with many incidents being reported. The purpose of this study is to analyze the nature of human emotion and negative behavior resulting from overcrowding during Hajj events from data gathered in Malaysian Hajj Experience Survey in 2013. The sample comprised of 147 Malaysian pilgrims (70 males and 77 females). Utilizing a probabilistic model called Bayesian network, this paper models the dependence structure between different emotions and negative behaviors of pilgrims in the crowd. The model included the following variables of emotion: negative, negative comfortable, positive, positive comfortable and positive spiritual and variables of negative behaviors; aggressive and hazardous acts. The study demonstrated that emotions of negative, negative comfortable, positive spiritual and positive emotion have a direct influence on aggressive behavior whereas emotion of negative comfortable, positive spiritual and positive have a direct influence on hazardous acts behavior. The sensitivity analysis showed that a low level of negative and negative comfortable emotions leads to a lower level of aggressive and hazardous behavior. Findings of the study can be further improved to identify the exact cause and risk factors of crowd-related incidents in preventing crowd disasters during the mass gathering events.

  1. Computing Posterior Probabilities of Structural Features in Bayesian Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Tian, Jin

    2012-01-01

    We study the problem of learning Bayesian network structures from data. Koivisto and Sood (2004) and Koivisto (2006) presented algorithms that can compute the exact marginal posterior probability of a subnetwork, e.g., a single edge, in O(n2n) time and the posterior probabilities for all n(n-1) potential edges in O(n2n) total time, assuming that the number of parents per node or the indegree is bounded by a constant. One main drawback of their algorithms is the requirement of a special structure prior that is non uniform and does not respect Markov equivalence. In this paper, we develop an algorithm that can compute the exact posterior probability of a subnetwork in O(3n) time and the posterior probabilities for all n(n-1) potential edges in O(n3n) total time. Our algorithm also assumes a bounded indegree but allows general structure priors. We demonstrate the applicability of the algorithm on several data sets with up to 20 variables.

  2. Evidence for single top quark production using Bayesian neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kau, Daekwang [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States)

    2007-01-01

    We present results of a search for single top quark production in p$\\bar{p}$ collisions using a dataset of approximately 1 fb-1 collected with the D0 detector. This analysis considers the muon+jets and electron+jets final states and makes use of Bayesian neural networks to separate the expected signals from backgrounds. The observed excess is associated with a p-value of 0.081%, assuming the background-only hypothesis, which corresponds to an excess over background of 3.2 standard deviations for a Gaussian density. The p-value computed using the SM signal cross section of 2.9 pb is 1.6%, corresponding to an expected significance of 2.2 standard deviations. Assuming the observed excess is due to single top production, we measure a single top quark production cross section of σ(p$\\bar{p}$ → tb + X, tqb + X) = 4.4 ± 1.5 pb.

  3. Using multi-step proposal distribution for improved MCMC convergence in Bayesian network structure learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larjo, Antti; Lähdesmäki, Harri

    2015-12-01

    Bayesian networks have become popular for modeling probabilistic relationships between entities. As their structure can also be given a causal interpretation about the studied system, they can be used to learn, for example, regulatory relationships of genes or proteins in biological networks and pathways. Inference of the Bayesian network structure is complicated by the size of the model structure space, necessitating the use of optimization methods or sampling techniques, such Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, convergence of MCMC chains is in many cases slow and can become even a harder issue as the dataset size grows. We show here how to improve convergence in the Bayesian network structure space by using an adjustable proposal distribution with the possibility to propose a wide range of steps in the structure space, and demonstrate improved network structure inference by analyzing phosphoprotein data from the human primary T cell signaling network.

  4. Forensic Signature Detection of Yersinia Pestis Culturing Practices Across Institutions Using a Bayesian Network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Corley, Courtney D.; McCue, Lee Ann; Clowers, Brian H.; Dowling, Chase P.; Wahl, Karen L.; Wunschel, David S.; Kreuzer, Helen W.

    2014-03-21

    The field of bioforensics is focused on the analysis of evidence from a biocrime. Existing laboratory analyses can identify the specific strain of an organism in the evidence, as well signatures of the specific culture batch of organisms, such as low-frequency contaminants or indicators of growth and processing methods. To link these disparate types of physical data to potential suspects, investigators may need to identify institutions or individuals whose access to strains and culturing practices match those identified from the evidence. In this work we present a Bayesian statistical network to fuse different types of analytical measurements that predict the production environment of a Yersinia pestis sample under investigation with automated test processing of scientific publications to identify institutions with a history of growing Y. pestis under similar conditions. Furthermore, the textual and experimental signatures were evaluated recursively to determine the overall sensitivity of the network across all levels of false positives. We illustrate that institutions associated with several specific culturing practices can be accurately selected based on the experimental signature from only a few analytical measurements. These findings demonstrate that similar Bayesian networks can be generated generically for many organisms of interest and their deployment is not prohibitive due to either computational or experimental factors.

  5. A novel approach for pilot error detection using Dynamic Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saada, Mohamad; Meng, Qinggang; Huang, Tingwen

    2014-06-01

    In the last decade Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) have become one type of the most attractive probabilistic modelling framework extensions of Bayesian Networks (BNs) for working under uncertainties from a temporal perspective. Despite this popularity not many researchers have attempted to study the use of these networks in anomaly detection or the implications of data anomalies on the outcome of such models. An abnormal change in the modelled environment's data at a given time, will cause a trailing chain effect on data of all related environment variables in current and consecutive time slices. Albeit this effect fades with time, it still can have an ill effect on the outcome of such models. In this paper we propose an algorithm for pilot error detection, using DBNs as the modelling framework for learning and detecting anomalous data. We base our experiments on the actions of an aircraft pilot, and a flight simulator is created for running the experiments. The proposed anomaly detection algorithm has achieved good results in detecting pilot errors and effects on the whole system.

  6. A Bayesian Network to Predict Barrier Island Geomorphologic Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, B.; Plant, N. G.; Thieler, E. R.; Turecek, A.; Stippa, S.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding how barrier islands along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States respond to storms and sea-level rise is an important management concern. Although these threats are well recognized, quantifying the integrated vulnerability is challenging due to the range of time and space scalesover which these processes act. Developing datasets and methods to identify the physical vulnerabilities of coastal environments due to storms and sea-level rise thus is an important scientific focus that supports land management decision making. Here we employ a Bayesian Network (BN) to model the interactions between geomorphic variables sampled from existing datasets that capture both storm-and sea-level rise related coastal evolution. The BN provides a means of estimating probabilities of changes in specific geomorphic characteristics such as foredune crest height, beach width, beach height, given knowledge of barrier island width, maximum barrier island elevation, distance from an inlet, the presence of anthropogenic modifications, and long-term shoreline change rates, which we assume to be directly related to sea-level rise. We evaluate BN skill and explore how different constraints, such as shoreline change characteristics (eroding, stable, accreting), distance to nearby inlets and island width, affect the probability distributions of future morphological characteristics. Our work demonstrates that a skillful BN can be constructed and that factors such as distance to inlet, shoreline change rate, and the presence of human alterations have the strongest influences on network performance. For Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, we find that different shoreline change behaviors affect the probabilities of specific geomorphic characteristics, such as dune height, which allows us to identify vulnerable locations on the barrier island where habitat or infrastructure may be vulnerable to storms and sea-level rise.

  7. Robust Bayesian Regularized Estimation Based on t Regression Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zean Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The t distribution is a useful extension of the normal distribution, which can be used for statistical modeling of data sets with heavy tails, and provides robust estimation. In this paper, in view of the advantages of Bayesian analysis, we propose a new robust coefficient estimation and variable selection method based on Bayesian adaptive Lasso t regression. A Gibbs sampler is developed based on the Bayesian hierarchical model framework, where we treat the t distribution as a mixture of normal and gamma distributions and put different penalization parameters for different regression coefficients. We also consider the Bayesian t regression with adaptive group Lasso and obtain the Gibbs sampler from the posterior distributions. Both simulation studies and real data example show that our method performs well compared with other existing methods when the error distribution has heavy tails and/or outliers.

  8. Recognizing recurrent neural networks (rRNN): Bayesian inference for recurrent neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitzer, Sebastian; Kiebel, Stefan J

    2012-07-01

    Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are widely used in computational neuroscience and machine learning applications. In an RNN, each neuron computes its output as a nonlinear function of its integrated input. While the importance of RNNs, especially as models of brain processing, is undisputed, it is also widely acknowledged that the computations in standard RNN models may be an over-simplification of what real neuronal networks compute. Here, we suggest that the RNN approach may be made computationally more powerful by its fusion with Bayesian inference techniques for nonlinear dynamical systems. In this scheme, we use an RNN as a generative model of dynamic input caused by the environment, e.g. of speech or kinematics. Given this generative RNN model, we derive Bayesian update equations that can decode its output. Critically, these updates define a 'recognizing RNN' (rRNN), in which neurons compute and exchange prediction and prediction error messages. The rRNN has several desirable features that a conventional RNN does not have, e.g. fast decoding of dynamic stimuli and robustness to initial conditions and noise. Furthermore, it implements a predictive coding scheme for dynamic inputs. We suggest that the Bayesian inversion of RNNs may be useful both as a model of brain function and as a machine learning tool. We illustrate the use of the rRNN by an application to the online decoding (i.e. recognition) of human kinematics.

  9. An Anticipatory and Deceptive AI Utilizing Bayesian Belief Networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lake, Joe E [ORNL; Allgood, Glenn O [ORNL; Olama, Mohammed M [ORNL; Saffold, JAy [Research Network, Inc

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. military defines antiterrorism as the defensive posture taken against terrorist threats. Antiterrorism includes fostering awareness of potential threats, deterring aggressors, developing security measures, planning for future events, interdicting an event in progress, and ultimately mitigating and managing the consequences of an event. Recent events highlight the need for efficient tools for training our military and homeland security officers for anticipating threats posed by terrorists. These tools need to be easy enough so that they are readily usable without substantial training, but still maintain the complexity to allow for a level of deceptive reasoning on the part of the opponent. To meet this need, we propose to integrate a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for threat anticipation and deceptive reasoning into training simulation environments currently utilized by several organizations within the Department of Defense (DoD). BBNs have the ability to deal with various types of uncertainties; such as identities, capabilities, target attractiveness, and the combinations of the previous. They also allow for disparate types of data to be fused in a coherent, analytically defensible, and understandable manner. A BBN has been developed by ORNL uses a network engineering process that treats the probability distributions of each node with in the broader context of the system development effort as a whole, and not in isolation. The network will be integrated into the Research Network Inc,(RNI) developed Game Distributed Interactive Simulation (GDIS) as a smart artificial intelligence module. GDIS is utilized by several DoD and civilian organizations as a distributed training tool for a multiplicity of reasons. It has garnered several awards for its realism, ease of use, and popularity. One area that it still has room to excel in, as most video training tools do, is in the area of artificial intelligence of opponent combatants. It is believed that by

  10. Quantitative utilization of prior biological knowledge in the Bayesian network modeling of gene expression data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao Shouguo

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bayesian Network (BN is a powerful approach to reconstructing genetic regulatory networks from gene expression data. However, expression data by itself suffers from high noise and lack of power. Incorporating prior biological knowledge can improve the performance. As each type of prior knowledge on its own may be incomplete or limited by quality issues, integrating multiple sources of prior knowledge to utilize their consensus is desirable. Results We introduce a new method to incorporate the quantitative information from multiple sources of prior knowledge. It first uses the Naïve Bayesian classifier to assess the likelihood of functional linkage between gene pairs based on prior knowledge. In this study we included cocitation in PubMed and schematic similarity in Gene Ontology annotation. A candidate network edge reservoir is then created in which the copy number of each edge is proportional to the estimated likelihood of linkage between the two corresponding genes. In network simulation the Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is adopted, and samples from this reservoir at each iteration to generate new candidate networks. We evaluated the new algorithm using both simulated and real gene expression data including that from a yeast cell cycle and a mouse pancreas development/growth study. Incorporating prior knowledge led to a ~2 fold increase in the number of known transcription regulations recovered, without significant change in false positive rate. In contrast, without the prior knowledge BN modeling is not always better than a random selection, demonstrating the necessity in network modeling to supplement the gene expression data with additional information. Conclusion our new development provides a statistical means to utilize the quantitative information in prior biological knowledge in the BN modeling of gene expression data, which significantly improves the performance.

  11. Characterizing structural association alterations within brain networks in normal aging using Gaussian Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiaojuan; Wang, Yan; Chen, Kewei; Wu, Xia; Zhang, Jiacai; Li, Ke; Jin, Zhen; Yao, Li

    2014-01-01

    Recent multivariate neuroimaging studies have revealed aging-related alterations in brain structural networks. However, the sensory/motor networks such as the auditory, visual and motor networks, have obtained much less attention in normal aging research. In this study, we used Gaussian Bayesian networks (BN), an approach investigating possible inter-regional directed relationship, to characterize aging effects on structural associations between core brain regions within each of these structural sensory/motor networks using volumetric MRI data. We then further examined the discriminability of BN models for the young (N = 109; mean age =22.73 years, range 20-28) and old (N = 82; mean age =74.37 years, range 60-90) groups. The results of the BN modeling demonstrated that structural associations exist between two homotopic brain regions from the left and right hemispheres in each of the three networks. In particular, compared with the young group, the old group had significant connection reductions in each of the three networks and lesser connection numbers in the visual network. Moreover, it was found that the aging-related BN models could distinguish the young and old individuals with 90.05, 73.82, and 88.48% accuracy for the auditory, visual, and motor networks, respectively. Our findings suggest that BN models can be used to investigate the normal aging process with reliable statistical power. Moreover, these differences in structural inter-regional interactions may help elucidate the neuronal mechanism of anatomical changes in normal aging.

  12. Multivariate discrimination technique based on the Bayesian theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIN Ping; PAN Chang-zhou; XIAO Wei-guo

    2007-01-01

    A multivariate discrimination technique was established based on the Bayesian theory. Using this technique, P/S ratios of different types (e.g., Pn/Sn, Pn/Lg, Pg/Sn or Pg/Lg) measured within different frequency bands and from different stations were combined together to discriminate seismic events in Central Asia. Major advantages of the Bayesian approach are that the probability to be an explosion for any unknown event can be directly calculated given the measurements of a group of discriminants, and at the same time correlations among these discriminants can be fully taken into account. It was proved theoretically that the Bayesian technique would be optimal and its discriminating performance would be better than that of any individual discriminant as well as better than that yielded by the linear combination approach ignoring correlations among discriminants. This conclusion was also validated in this paper by applying the Bayesian approach to the above-mentioned observed data.

  13. Fuzzy Bayesian Network-Bow-Tie Analysis of Gas Leakage during Biomass Gasification.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Yan

    Full Text Available Biomass gasification technology has been rapidly developed recently. But fire and poisoning accidents caused by gas leakage restrict the development and promotion of biomass gasification. Therefore, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA is necessary for biomass gasification system. Subsequently, Bayesian network-bow-tie (BN-bow-tie analysis was proposed by mapping bow-tie analysis into Bayesian network (BN. Causes of gas leakage and the accidents triggered by gas leakage can be obtained by bow-tie analysis, and BN was used to confirm the critical nodes of accidents by introducing corresponding three importance measures. Meanwhile, certain occurrence probability of failure was needed in PSA. In view of the insufficient failure data of biomass gasification, the occurrence probability of failure which cannot be obtained from standard reliability data sources was confirmed by fuzzy methods based on expert judgment. An improved approach considered expert weighting to aggregate fuzzy numbers included triangular and trapezoidal numbers was proposed, and the occurrence probability of failure was obtained. Finally, safety measures were indicated based on the obtained critical nodes. The theoretical occurrence probabilities in one year of gas leakage and the accidents caused by it were reduced to 1/10.3 of the original values by these safety measures.

  14. Fuzzy Bayesian Network-Bow-Tie Analysis of Gas Leakage during Biomass Gasification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Fang; Xu, Kaili; Yao, Xiwen; Li, Yang

    2016-01-01

    Biomass gasification technology has been rapidly developed recently. But fire and poisoning accidents caused by gas leakage restrict the development and promotion of biomass gasification. Therefore, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is necessary for biomass gasification system. Subsequently, Bayesian network-bow-tie (BN-bow-tie) analysis was proposed by mapping bow-tie analysis into Bayesian network (BN). Causes of gas leakage and the accidents triggered by gas leakage can be obtained by bow-tie analysis, and BN was used to confirm the critical nodes of accidents by introducing corresponding three importance measures. Meanwhile, certain occurrence probability of failure was needed in PSA. In view of the insufficient failure data of biomass gasification, the occurrence probability of failure which cannot be obtained from standard reliability data sources was confirmed by fuzzy methods based on expert judgment. An improved approach considered expert weighting to aggregate fuzzy numbers included triangular and trapezoidal numbers was proposed, and the occurrence probability of failure was obtained. Finally, safety measures were indicated based on the obtained critical nodes. The theoretical occurrence probabilities in one year of gas leakage and the accidents caused by it were reduced to 1/10.3 of the original values by these safety measures.

  15. 改进的基于邻接树的贝叶斯网络推理算法%Refined Junction-Tree-Based Algorithm for Reasoning in Bayesian Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡春玲; 胡学钢; 姚宏亮

    2011-01-01

    Two classical junction-tree-based algorithms for reasoning in Bayesian network, Shafer-Shenoy architecture and Hugin architecture, are analyzed and compared. For the limitation of the Hugin algorithm in the reasoning analysis, a refined Hugin algorithm, R-Hugin, is proposed, which introduces the zero-factor flag and zero-factor processing mechanism in the message propagation process of the Hugin algorithm. R-Hugin algorithm has good reasoning and analyzing performance. Meanwhile, the correctness and efficiency of the R-Hugin algorithm are validated by theory and experiments.%分析比较Shafer-Shenoy结构和Hugin结构两种经典的基于邻接树的贝叶斯网络推理算法.针对Hugin算法在推理分析领域的局限性,通过在Hugin算法的消息传播过程中引入零因子标志位和零因子处理机制,提出一种Hugin算法的改进算法R-Hugin.该算法具有良好的推理分析性能,并从理论和实验两个方面证明R-Hugin算法的正确性和有效性.

  16. Untangling the role of one-carbon metabolism in colorectal cancer risk: a comprehensive Bayesian network analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myte, Robin; Gylling, Björn; Häggström, Jenny; Schneede, Jörn; Magne Ueland, Per; Hallmans, Göran; Johansson, Ingegerd; Palmqvist, Richard; Van Guelpen, Bethany

    2017-01-01

    The role of one-carbon metabolism (1CM), particularly folate, in colorectal cancer (CRC) development has been extensively studied, but with inconclusive results. Given the complexity of 1CM, the conventional approach, investigating components individually, may be insufficient. We used a machine learning-based Bayesian network approach to study, simultaneously, 14 circulating one-carbon metabolites, 17 related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and several environmental factors in relation to CRC risk in 613 cases and 1190 controls from the prospective Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study. The estimated networks corresponded largely to known biochemical relationships. Plasma concentrations of folate (direct), vitamin B6 (pyridoxal 5-phosphate) (inverse), and vitamin B2 (riboflavin) (inverse) had the strongest independent associations with CRC risk. Our study demonstrates the importance of incorporating B-vitamins in future studies of 1CM and CRC development, and the usefulness of Bayesian network learning for investigating complex biological systems in relation to disease. PMID:28233834

  17. Bayesian-based Project Monitoring: Framework Development and Model Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Hartono

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available During project implementation, risk becomes an integral part of project monitoring. Therefore. a tool that could dynamically include elements of risk in project progress monitoring is needed. This objective of this study is to develop a general framework that addresses such a concern. The developed framework consists of three interrelated major building blocks, namely: Risk Register (RR, Bayesian Network (BN, and Project Time Networks (PTN for dynamic project monitoring. RR is used to list and to categorize identified project risks. PTN is utilized for modeling the relationship between project activities. BN is used to reflect the interdependence among risk factors and to bridge RR and PTN. A residential development project is chosen as a working example and the result shows that the proposed framework has been successfully applied. The specific model of the development project is also successfully developed and is used to monitor the project progress. It is shown in this study that the proposed BN-based model provides superior performance in terms of forecast accuracy compared to the extant models.

  18. A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity but MoA classification in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity mode of action using a recently published dataset containing over one thousand chemicals with MoA assignments for aquatic animal toxicity. Two dimensional theoretical chemical descriptors were generated for each chemical using the Toxicity Estimation Software Tool. The model was developed through augmented Markov blanket discovery from the data set with the MoA broad classifications as a target node. From cross validation, the overall precision for the model was 80.2% with a R2 of 0.959. The best precision was for the AChEI MoA (93.5%) where 257 chemicals out of 275 were correctly classified. Model precision was poorest for the reactivity MoA (48.5%) where 48 out of 99 reactive chemicals were correctly classified. Narcosis represented the largest class within the MoA dataset and had a precision and reliability of 80.0%, reflecting the global precision across all of the MoAs. False negatives for narcosis most often fell into electron transport inhibition, neurotoxicity or reactivity MoAs. False negatives for all other MoAs were most often narcosis. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken for each MoA to examine the sensitivity to individual and multiple descriptor findings. The results show that the Markov blanket of a structurally

  19. Utilization of extended bayesian networks in decision making under uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Eeckhout, Edward M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Leishman, Deborah A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Gibson, William L [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian network tool (called IKE for Integrated Knowledge Engine) has been developed to assess the probability of undesirable events. The tool allows indications and observables from sensors and/or intelligence to feed directly into hypotheses of interest, thus allowing one to quantify the probability and uncertainty of these events resulting from very disparate evidence. For example, the probability that a facility is processing nuclear fuel or assembling a weapon can be assessed by examining the processes required, establishing the observables that should be present, then assembling information from intelligence, sensors and other information sources related to the observables. IKE also has the capability to determine tasking plans, that is, prioritize which observable should be collected next to most quickly ascertain the 'true' state and drive the probability toward 'zero' or 'one.' This optimization capability is called 'evidence marshaling.' One example to be discussed is a denied facility monitoring situation; there is concern that certain process(es) are being executed at the site (due to some intelligence or other data). We will show how additional pieces of evidence will then ascertain with some degree of certainty the likelihood of this process(es) as each piece of evidence is obtained. This example shows how both intelligence and sensor data can be incorporated into the analysis. A second example involves real-time perimeter security. For this demonstration we used seismic, acoustic, and optical sensors linked back to IKE. We show how these sensors identified and assessed the likelihood of 'intruder' versus friendly vehicles.

  20. Emulation Modeling with Bayesian Networks for Efficient Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fienen, M. N.; Masterson, J.; Plant, N. G.; Gutierrez, B. T.; Thieler, E. R.

    2012-12-01

    Bayesian decision networks (BDN) have long been used to provide decision support in systems that require explicit consideration of uncertainty; applications range from ecology to medical diagnostics and terrorism threat assessments. Until recently, however, few studies have applied BDNs to the study of groundwater systems. BDNs are particularly useful for representing real-world system variability by synthesizing a range of hydrogeologic situations within a single simulation. Because BDN output is cast in terms of probability—an output desired by decision makers—they explicitly incorporate the uncertainty of a system. BDNs can thus serve as a more efficient alternative to other uncertainty characterization methods such as computationally demanding Monte Carlo analyses and others methods restricted to linear model analyses. We present a unique application of a BDN to a groundwater modeling analysis of the hydrologic response of Assateague Island, Maryland to sea-level rise. Using both input and output variables of the modeled groundwater response to different sea-level (SLR) rise scenarios, the BDN predicts the probability of changes in the depth to fresh water, which exerts an important influence on physical and biological island evolution. Input variables included barrier-island width, maximum island elevation, and aquifer recharge. The variability of these inputs and their corresponding outputs are sampled along cross sections in a single model run to form an ensemble of input/output pairs. The BDN outputs, which are the posterior distributions of water table conditions for the sea-level rise scenarios, are evaluated through error analysis and cross-validation to assess both fit to training data and predictive power. The key benefit for using BDNs in groundwater modeling analyses is that they provide a method for distilling complex model results into predictions with associated uncertainty, which is useful to decision makers. Future efforts incorporate

  1. Effective Structure Learning for Estimation of Distribution Algorithms via L1-Regularized Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs, as an extension of genetic algorithms, samples new solutions from the probabilistic model, which characterizes the distribution of promising solutions in the search space at each generation. This paper introduces and evaluates a novel estimation of a distribution algorithm, called L1-regularized Bayesian optimization algorithm, L1BOA. In L1BOA, Bayesian networks as probabilistic models are learned in two steps. First, candidate parents of each variable in Bayesian networks are detected by means of L1-regularized logistic regression, with the aim of leading a sparse but nearly optimized network structure. Second, the greedy search, which is restricted to the candidate parent-child pairs, is deployed to identify the final structure. Compared with the Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA, L1BOA improves the efficiency of structure learning due to the reduction and automated control of network complexity introduced with L1-regularized learning. Experimental studies on different types of benchmark problems show that L1BOA not only outperforms BOA when no prior knowledge about problem structure is available, but also achieves and even exceeds the best performance of BOA that applies explicit controls on network complexity. Furthermore, Bayesian networks built by L1BOA and BOA during evolution are analysed and compared, which demonstrates that L1BOA is able to build simpler, yet more accurate probabilistic models.

  2. Assessment of successful smoking cessation by psychological factors using the Bayesian network approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaorong; Li, Suyun; Pan, Lulu; Wang, Qiang; Li, Huijie; Han, Mingkui; Zhang, Nan; Jiang, Fan; Jia, Chongqi

    2016-07-01

    The association between psychological factors and smoking cessation is complicated and inconsistent in published researches, and the joint effect of psychological factors on smoking cessation is unclear. This study explored how psychological factors jointly affect the success of smoking cessation using a Bayesian network approach. A community-based case control study was designed with 642 adult male successful smoking quitters as the cases, and 700 adult male failed smoking quitters as the controls. General self-efficacy (GSE), trait coping style (positive-trait coping style (PTCS) and negative-trait coping style (NTCS)) and self-rating anxiety (SA) were evaluated by GSE Scale, Trait Coping Style Questionnaire and SA Scale, respectively. Bayesian network was applied to evaluate the relationship between psychological factors and successful smoking cessation. The local conditional probability table of smoking cessation indicated that different joint conditions of psychological factors led to different outcomes for smoking cessation. Among smokers with high PTCS, high NTCS and low SA, only 36.40% successfully quitted smoking. However, among smokers with low pack-years of smoking, high GSE, high PTCS and high SA, 63.64% successfully quitted smoking. Our study indicates psychological factors jointly influence smoking cessation outcome. According to different joint situations, different solutions should be developed to control tobacco in practical intervention.

  3. A real-time fault diagnosis methodology of complex systems using object-oriented Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Baoping; Liu, Hanlin; Xie, Min

    2016-12-01

    Bayesian network (BN) is a commonly used tool in probabilistic reasoning of uncertainty in industrial processes, but it requires modeling of large and complex systems, in situations such as fault diagnosis and reliability evaluation. Motivated by reduction of the overall complexities of BNs for fault diagnosis, and the reporting of faults that immediately occur, a real-time fault diagnosis methodology of complex systems with repetitive structures is proposed using object-oriented Bayesian networks (OOBNs). The modeling methodology consists of two main phases: an off-line OOBN construction phase and an on-line fault diagnosis phase. In the off-line phase, sensor historical data and expert knowledge are collected and processed to determine the faults and symptoms, and OOBN-based fault diagnosis models are developed subsequently. In the on-line phase, operator experience and sensor real-time data are placed in the OOBNs to perform the fault diagnosis. According to engineering experience, the judgment rules are defined to obtain the fault diagnosis results.

  4. Guidance on the implementation and reporting of a drug safety Bayesian network meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohlssen, David; Price, Karen L; Xia, H Amy; Hong, Hwanhee; Kerman, Jouni; Fu, Haoda; Quartey, George; Heilmann, Cory R; Ma, Haijun; Carlin, Bradley P

    2014-01-01

    The Drug Information Association Bayesian Scientific Working Group (BSWG) was formed in 2011 with a vision to ensure that Bayesian methods are well understood and broadly utilized for design and analysis and throughout the medical product development process, and to improve industrial, regulatory, and economic decision making. The group, composed of individuals from academia, industry, and regulatory, has as its mission to facilitate the appropriate use and contribute to the progress of Bayesian methodology. In this paper, the safety sub-team of the BSWG explores the use of Bayesian methods when applied to drug safety meta-analysis and network meta-analysis. Guidance is presented on the conduct and reporting of such analyses. We also discuss different structural model assumptions and provide discussion on prior specification. The work is illustrated through a case study involving a network meta-analysis related to the cardiovascular safety of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs.

  5. Modeling of Failure Prediction Bayesian Network with Divide-and-Conquer Principle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiqiang Cai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available For system failure prediction, automatically modeling from historical failure dataset is one of the challenges in practical engineering fields. In this paper, an effective algorithm is proposed to build the failure prediction Bayesian network (FPBN model with data mining technology. First, the conception of FPBN is introduced to describe the state of components and system and the cause-effect relationships among them. The types of network nodes, the directions of network edges, and the conditional probability distributions (CPDs of nodes in FPBN are discussed in detail. According to the characteristics of nodes and edges in FPBN, a divide-and-conquer principle based algorithm (FPBN-DC is introduced to build the best FPBN network structures of different types of nodes separately. Then, the CPDs of nodes in FPBN are calculated by the maximum likelihood estimation method based on the built network. Finally, a simulation study of a helicopter convertor model is carried out to demonstrate the application of FPBN-DC. According to the simulations results, the FPBN-DC algorithm can get better fitness value with the lower number of iterations, which verified its effectiveness and efficiency compared with traditional algorithm.

  6. The use of Bayesian Networks in Detecting the States of Ventilation Mills in Power Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanja Vujnović

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to present a new method of predictive maintenance which can detect the states of coal grinding mills in thermal power plants using Bayesian networks. Several possible structures of Bayesian networks are proposed for solving this problem and one of them is implemented and tested on an actual system. This method uses acoustic signals and statistical signal pre-processing tools to compute the inputs of the Bayesian network. After that the network is trained and tested using signals measured in the vicinity of the mill in the period of 2 months. The goal of this algorithm is to increase the efficiency of the coal grinding process and reduce the maintenance cost by eliminating the unnecessary maintenance checks of the system.

  7. Learning Bayesian Network Structure%贝叶斯网络结构学习分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王双成; 林士敏; 陆玉昌

    2000-01-01

    In this paper the analysis of principle and process of Bayesian network structure learning is given. Bayesian network structure learning is a process that seeks the best network structure fitting the prior knowledge and data. The computing of posterior can be closed when data are completed and some other conditions are satisfied ,while the computing is not closed when some data are missing. One solution for missing data is fill-in methods,another is to approximate the likelihood of structure,then to compute the probabilities of structure.

  8. A Dynamic Bayesian Network Model for the Production and Inventory Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Ji-Sun; Takazaki, Noriyuki; Lee, Tae-Hong; Kim, Jin-Il; Lee, Hee-Hyol

    In general, the production quantities and delivered goods are changed randomly and then the total stock is also changed randomly. This paper deals with the production and inventory control using the Dynamic Bayesian Network. Bayesian Network is a probabilistic model which represents the qualitative dependence between two or more random variables by the graph structure, and indicates the quantitative relations between individual variables by the conditional probability. The probabilistic distribution of the total stock is calculated through the propagation of the probability on the network. Moreover, an adjusting rule of the production quantities to maintain the probability of a lower limit and a ceiling of the total stock to certain values is shown.

  9. GraphAlignment: Bayesian pairwise alignment of biological networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kolář Michal

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background With increased experimental availability and accuracy of bio-molecular networks, tools for their comparative and evolutionary analysis are needed. A key component for such studies is the alignment of networks. Results We introduce the Bioconductor package GraphAlignment for pairwise alignment of bio-molecular networks. The alignment incorporates information both from network vertices and network edges and is based on an explicit evolutionary model, allowing inference of all scoring parameters directly from empirical data. We compare the performance of our algorithm to an alternative algorithm, Græmlin 2.0. On simulated data, GraphAlignment outperforms Græmlin 2.0 in several benchmarks except for computational complexity. When there is little or no noise in the data, GraphAlignment is slower than Græmlin 2.0. It is faster than Græmlin 2.0 when processing noisy data containing spurious vertex associations. Its typical case complexity grows approximately as O(N2.6. On empirical bacterial protein-protein interaction networks (PIN and gene co-expression networks, GraphAlignment outperforms Græmlin 2.0 with respect to coverage and specificity, albeit by a small margin. On large eukaryotic PIN, Græmlin 2.0 outperforms GraphAlignment. Conclusions The GraphAlignment algorithm is robust to spurious vertex associations, correctly resolves paralogs, and shows very good performance in identification of homologous vertices defined by high vertex and/or interaction similarity. The simplicity and generality of GraphAlignment edge scoring makes the algorithm an appropriate choice for global alignment of networks.

  10. Ranking Features on Psychological Dynamics of Cooperative Team Work through Bayesian Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pilar Fuster-Parra; Alex García-Mas; Jaume Cantallops; F. Javier Ponseti; Yuhua Luo

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to rank some features that characterize the psychological dynamics of cooperative team work in order to determine priorities for interventions and formation: leading positive feedback, cooperative manager and collaborative manager features. From a dataset of 20 cooperative sport teams (403 soccer players), the characteristics of the prototypical sports teams are studied using an average Bayesian network (BN) and two special types of BNs, the Bayesian classifiers: naiv...

  11. Costal vulnerability systems-network using Fuzzy and Bayesian approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taramelli, A.; Valentini, E.; Filipponi, F.; Nguyen Xuan, A.; Arosio, M.

    2016-12-01

    Marine drivers such as surge in the context of SLR, are threatening low-lying coastal plains. In order to deal with disturbances a deeper understanding of benefits deriving from ecosystem services assesment, management and planning (e.g. the role of dune ridges in surge mitigation and climate adaptation) can enhance the resilience of coastal systems. In this frame assessing the vulnerability is a key concern of many SOS (social, ecological, institutional) that deals with several challenges like the definition of Essential Variables (EVs) able to synthesize the required information, the assignment of different weight to be attributed to each considered variable, the selection of method for combining the relevant variables, etc.. To this end it is unclear how SLR, subsidence and erosion might affect coastal subsistence resources because of highly complex interactions and because of the subjective system of weighting many variables and their interaction within the systems. In this contribution, making the best use of many EO products, in situ data and modelling, we propose a multidimensional surge vulnerability assessment that aims at combining together geophysical and socioeconomic variable on the base of different approaches: 1) Fuzzy Logic; 2) Bayesian approach. The final goal is providing insight in understanding how to quantify regulating ecosystem services.

  12. Explaining Inference on a Population of Independent Agents Using Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutovsky, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The main goal of this research is to design, implement, and evaluate a novel explanation method, the hierarchical explanation method (HEM), for explaining Bayesian network (BN) inference when the network is modeling a population of conditionally independent agents, each of which is modeled as a subnetwork. For example, consider disease-outbreak…

  13. Expectation propagation for large scale Bayesian inference of non-linear molecular networks from perturbation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beigy, Hamid; Ahmad, Ashar; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali; Fröhlich, Holger

    2017-01-01

    Inferring the structure of molecular networks from time series protein or gene expression data provides valuable information about the complex biological processes of the cell. Causal network structure inference has been approached using different methods in the past. Most causal network inference techniques, such as Dynamic Bayesian Networks and ordinary differential equations, are limited by their computational complexity and thus make large scale inference infeasible. This is specifically true if a Bayesian framework is applied in order to deal with the unavoidable uncertainty about the correct model. We devise a novel Bayesian network reverse engineering approach using ordinary differential equations with the ability to include non-linearity. Besides modeling arbitrary, possibly combinatorial and time dependent perturbations with unknown targets, one of our main contributions is the use of Expectation Propagation, an algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference over large scale network structures in short computation time. We further explore the possibility of integrating prior knowledge into network inference. We evaluate the proposed model on DREAM4 and DREAM8 data and find it competitive against several state-of-the-art existing network inference methods. PMID:28166542

  14. Diagnosis and Reconfiguration using Bayesian Networks: An Electrical Power System Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knox, W. Bradley; Mengshoel, Ole

    2009-01-01

    Automated diagnosis and reconfiguration are important computational techniques that aim to minimize human intervention in autonomous systems. In this paper, we develop novel techniques and models in the context of diagnosis and reconfiguration reasoning using causal Bayesian networks (BNs). We take as starting point a successful diagnostic approach, using a static BN developed for a real-world electrical power system. We discuss in this paper the extension of this diagnostic approach along two dimensions, namely: (i) from a static BN to a dynamic BN; and (ii) from a diagnostic task to a reconfiguration task. More specifically, we discuss the auto-generation of a dynamic Bayesian network from a static Bayesian network. In addition, we discuss subtle, but important, differences between Bayesian networks when used for diagnosis versus reconfiguration. We discuss a novel reconfiguration agent, which models a system causally, including effects of actions through time, using a dynamic Bayesian network. Though the techniques we discuss are general, we demonstrate them in the context of electrical power systems (EPSs) for aircraft and spacecraft. EPSs are vital subsystems on-board aircraft and spacecraft, and many incidents and accidents of these vehicles have been attributed to EPS failures. We discuss a case study that provides initial but promising results for our approach in the setting of electrical power systems.

  15. Bayesian networks for evaluating forensic DNA profiling evidence: a review and guide to literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biedermann, A; Taroni, F

    2012-03-01

    Almost 30 years ago, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed in the field of artificial intelligence as a framework that should assist researchers and practitioners in applying the theory of probability to inference problems of more substantive size and, thus, to more realistic and practical problems. Since the late 1980s, Bayesian networks have also attracted researchers in forensic science and this tendency has considerably intensified throughout the last decade. This review article provides an overview of the scientific literature that describes research on Bayesian networks as a tool that can be used to study, develop and implement probabilistic procedures for evaluating the probative value of particular items of scientific evidence in forensic science. Primary attention is drawn here to evaluative issues that pertain to forensic DNA profiling evidence because this is one of the main categories of evidence whose assessment has been studied through Bayesian networks. The scope of topics is large and includes almost any aspect that relates to forensic DNA profiling. Typical examples are inference of source (or, 'criminal identification'), relatedness testing, database searching and special trace evidence evaluation (such as mixed DNA stains or stains with low quantities of DNA). The perspective of the review presented here is not exclusively restricted to DNA evidence, but also includes relevant references and discussion on both, the concept of Bayesian networks as well as its general usage in legal sciences as one among several different graphical approaches to evidence evaluation.

  16. Structure-based bayesian sparse reconstruction

    KAUST Repository

    Quadeer, Ahmed Abdul

    2012-12-01

    Sparse signal reconstruction algorithms have attracted research attention due to their wide applications in various fields. In this paper, we present a simple Bayesian approach that utilizes the sparsity constraint and a priori statistical information (Gaussian or otherwise) to obtain near optimal estimates. In addition, we make use of the rich structure of the sensing matrix encountered in many signal processing applications to develop a fast sparse recovery algorithm. The computational complexity of the proposed algorithm is very low compared with the widely used convex relaxation methods as well as greedy matching pursuit techniques, especially at high sparsity. © 1991-2012 IEEE.

  17. Bayesian non-negative factor analysis for reconstructing transcription factor mediated regulatory networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Yidong

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Transcriptional regulation by transcription factor (TF controls the time and abundance of mRNA transcription. Due to the limitation of current proteomics technologies, large scale measurements of protein level activities of TFs is usually infeasible, making computational reconstruction of transcriptional regulatory network a difficult task. Results We proposed here a novel Bayesian non-negative factor model for TF mediated regulatory networks. Particularly, the non-negative TF activities and sample clustering effect are modeled as the factors from a Dirichlet process mixture of rectified Gaussian distributions, and the sparse regulatory coefficients are modeled as the loadings from a sparse distribution that constrains its sparsity using knowledge from database; meantime, a Gibbs sampling solution was developed to infer the underlying network structure and the unknown TF activities simultaneously. The developed approach has been applied to simulated system and breast cancer gene expression data. Result shows that, the proposed method was able to systematically uncover TF mediated transcriptional regulatory network structure, the regulatory coefficients, the TF protein level activities and the sample clustering effect. The regulation target prediction result is highly coordinated with the prior knowledge, and sample clustering result shows superior performance over previous molecular based clustering method. Conclusions The results demonstrated the validity and effectiveness of the proposed approach in reconstructing transcriptional networks mediated by TFs through simulated systems and real data.

  18. Target distribution in cooperative combat based on Bayesian optimization algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shi Zhifu; Zhang An; Wang Anli

    2006-01-01

    Target distribution in cooperative combat is a difficult and emphases. We build up the optimization model according to the rule of fire distribution. We have researched on the optimization model with BOA. The BOA can estimate the joint probability distribution of the variables with Bayesian network, and the new candidate solutions also can be generated by the joint distribution. The simulation example verified that the method could be used to solve the complex question, the operation was quickly and the solution was best.

  19. Bayesian and Non Bayesian Parameter Estimation for Bivariate Pareto Distribution Based on Censored Samples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rania, M. Shalaby

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods for estimating parameters of the bivariate Pareto (BP distribution based on censored samples are considered with shape parameters λ and known scale parameter β. The maximum likelihood estimators MLE of the unknown parameters are derived. The Bayes estimators are obtained with respect to the squared error loss function and the prior distributions allow for prior dependence among the components of the parameter vector. .Posterior distributions for parameters of interest are derived and their properties are described. If the scale parameter is known, the Bayes estimators of the unknown parameters can be obtained in explicit forms under the assumptions of independent priors. An extensive computer simulation is used to compare the performance of the proposed estimators using MathCAD (14.

  20. How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J.; Austin, R. Marshall

    2016-01-01

    Background: Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. Aim: The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. Materials and Methods: This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan–Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. Results: The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Conclusion: Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches. PMID:28163973

  1. Hidden Markov induced Dynamic Bayesian Network for recovering time evolving gene regulatory networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Shijia; Wang, Yadong

    2015-12-01

    Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) have been widely used to recover gene regulatory relationships from time-series data in computational systems biology. Its standard assumption is ‘stationarity’, and therefore, several research efforts have been recently proposed to relax this restriction. However, those methods suffer from three challenges: long running time, low accuracy and reliance on parameter settings. To address these problems, we propose a novel non-stationary DBN model by extending each hidden node of Hidden Markov Model into a DBN (called HMDBN), which properly handles the underlying time-evolving networks. Correspondingly, an improved structural EM algorithm is proposed to learn the HMDBN. It dramatically reduces searching space, thereby substantially improving computational efficiency. Additionally, we derived a novel generalized Bayesian Information Criterion under the non-stationary assumption (called BWBIC), which can help significantly improve the reconstruction accuracy and largely reduce over-fitting. Moreover, the re-estimation formulas for all parameters of our model are derived, enabling us to avoid reliance on parameter settings. Compared to the state-of-the-art methods, the experimental evaluation of our proposed method on both synthetic and real biological data demonstrates more stably high prediction accuracy and significantly improved computation efficiency, even with no prior knowledge and parameter settings.

  2. Hidden Markov induced Dynamic Bayesian Network for recovering time evolving gene regulatory networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Shijia; Wang, Yadong

    2015-12-18

    Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) have been widely used to recover gene regulatory relationships from time-series data in computational systems biology. Its standard assumption is 'stationarity', and therefore, several research efforts have been recently proposed to relax this restriction. However, those methods suffer from three challenges: long running time, low accuracy and reliance on parameter settings. To address these problems, we propose a novel non-stationary DBN model by extending each hidden node of Hidden Markov Model into a DBN (called HMDBN), which properly handles the underlying time-evolving networks. Correspondingly, an improved structural EM algorithm is proposed to learn the HMDBN. It dramatically reduces searching space, thereby substantially improving computational efficiency. Additionally, we derived a novel generalized Bayesian Information Criterion under the non-stationary assumption (called BWBIC), which can help significantly improve the reconstruction accuracy and largely reduce over-fitting. Moreover, the re-estimation formulas for all parameters of our model are derived, enabling us to avoid reliance on parameter settings. Compared to the state-of-the-art methods, the experimental evaluation of our proposed method on both synthetic and real biological data demonstrates more stably high prediction accuracy and significantly improved computation efficiency, even with no prior knowledge and parameter settings.

  3. WORD SENSE DISAMBIGUATION BASED ON IMPROVED BAYESIAN CLASSIFIERS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Word Sense Disambiguation (WSD) is to decide the sense of an ambiguous word on particular context. Most of current studies on WSD only use several ambiguous words as test samples, thus leads to some limitation in practical application. In this paper, we perform WSD study based on large scale real-world corpus using two unsupervised learning algorithms based on ±n-improved Bayesian model and Dependency Grammar(DG)-improved Bayesian model. ±n-improved classifiers reduce the window size of context of ambiguous words with close-distance feature extraction method, and decrease the jamming of useless features, thus obviously improve the accuracy, reaching 83.18% (in open test). DG-improved classifier can more effectively conquer the noise effect existing in Naive-Bayesian classifier. Experimental results show that this approach does better on Chinese WSD, and the open test achieved an accuracy of 86.27%.

  4. Evaluation of the Diagnostic Power of Thermography in Breast Cancer Using Bayesian Network Classifiers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicandro, Cruz-Ramírez; Efrén, Mezura-Montes; María Yaneli, Ameca-Alducin; Enrique, Martín-Del-Campo-Mena; Héctor Gabriel, Acosta-Mesa; Nancy, Pérez-Castro; Alejandro, Guerra-Hernández; Guillermo de Jesús, Hoyos-Rivera; Rocío Erandi, Barrientos-Martínez

    2013-01-01

    Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of death among women worldwide. There are a number of techniques used for diagnosing this disease: mammography, ultrasound, and biopsy, among others. Each of these has well-known advantages and disadvantages. A relatively new method, based on the temperature a tumor may produce, has recently been explored: thermography. In this paper, we will evaluate the diagnostic power of thermography in breast cancer using Bayesian network classifiers. We will show how the information provided by the thermal image can be used in order to characterize patients suspected of having cancer. Our main contribution is the proposal of a score, based on the aforementioned information, that could help distinguish sick patients from healthy ones. Our main results suggest the potential of this technique in such a goal but also show its main limitations that have to be overcome to consider it as an effective diagnosis complementary tool. PMID:23762182

  5. Unavailability of the residual system heat removal of Angra 1 by Bayesian networks considering dependent failures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomes, Many R.S.; Melo, Paulo F.F.F. e, E-mail: mgomes@con.ufrj.br, E-mail: frutuoso@nuclear.ufrj.br [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia Nuclear

    2015-07-01

    This work models by Bayesian networks the residual heat removal system (SRCR) of Angra I nuclear power plant, using fault tree mapping for systematically identifying all possible modes of occurrence caused by a large loss of coolant accident (large LOCA). The focus is on dependent events, such as the bridge system structure of the residual heat removal system and the occurrence of common-cause failures. We used the Netica™ tool kit, Norsys Software Corporation and Python 2.7.5 for modeling Bayesian networks and Microsoft Excel for modeling fault trees. Working with dependent events using Bayesian networks is similar to the solutions proposed by other models, beyond simple understanding and ease of application and modification throughout the analysis. The results obtained for the unavailability of the system were satisfactory, showing that in most cases the system will be available to mitigate the effects of an accident as described above. (author)

  6. Landslide Susceptibility Mapping of Tegucigalpa, Honduras Using Artificial Neural Network, Bayesian Network and Decision Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia Urquia, E. L.; Braun, A.; Yamagishi, H.

    2016-12-01

    Tegucigalpa, the capital city of Honduras, experiences rainfall-induced landslides on a yearly basis. The high precipitation regime and the rugged topography the city has been built in couple with the lack of a proper urban expansion plan to contribute to the occurrence of landslides during the rainy season. Thousands of inhabitants live at risk of losing their belongings due to the construction of precarious shelters in landslide-prone areas on mountainous terrains and next to the riverbanks. Therefore, the city is in the need for landslide susceptibility and hazard maps to aid in the regulation of future development. Major challenges in the context of highly dynamic urbanizing areas are the overlap of natural and anthropogenic slope destabilizing factors, as well as the availability and accuracy of data. Data-driven multivariate techniques have proven to be powerful in discovering interrelations between factors, identifying important factors in large datasets, capturing non-linear problems and coping with noisy and incomplete data. This analysis focuses on the creation of a landslide susceptibility map using different methods from the field of data mining, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Bayesian Networks (BN) and Decision Trees (DT). The input dataset of the study contains geomorphological and hydrological factors derived from a digital elevation model with a 10 m resolution, lithological factors derived from a geological map, and anthropogenic factors, such as information on the development stage of the neighborhoods in Tegucigalpa and road density. Moreover, a landslide inventory map that was developed in 2014 through aerial photo interpretation was used as target variable in the analysis. The analysis covers an area of roughly 100 km2, while 8.95 km2 are occupied by landslides. In a first step, the dataset was explored by assessing and improving the data quality, identifying unimportant variables and finding interrelations. Then, based on a training

  7. 金属疲劳裂纹扩展速率的贝叶斯正则化BP神经网络预测%Prediction of fatigue crack growth rate of metal based on Bayesian regularized BP neural network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    罗广恩; 崔维成

    2012-01-01

    Artificial neural network is an important method for predicting the fatigue crack growth rate. In this paper, the Bayesian regularized BP neural network is established to predict the fatigue crack growth rate of metal.The experimental data of each material at different stress ratio R are divided into two parts. One is used for training neural network, the other is used for testing the network. Experimental data of four different types of materials taken from literature were used in the analyses. The results show that the neural network has strong fitting and generalization capability. And the generalization capability of neural network is improved by reducing the training data near the threshold.So the neural network can be used for predicting the crack growth rate of different stress ratios R based on the existing data. Furthermore, it will provide a reliable and useful predictor for fatigue crack growth rate of different metals.%人工神经网络是进行预报裂纹扩展率的一个重要方法.文章针对不同金属的疲劳裂纹扩展速率分别建立贝叶斯正则化BP( Back Propagation)神经网络,将各材料在不同应力比R下的疲劳裂纹扩展速率试验数据分为两部分,一部分用来进行训练网络,另一部分用来测试训练好的网络,检验其泛化能力.将从文献中获取的4种不同金属材料的疲劳试验数据作为算例,来检验网络的性能.计算结果表明贝叶斯正则化BP神经网络不仅对训练样本有很好的拟合能力,而且对于未训练过的测试样本也有较好的预测能力,即有较强的泛化能力.同时,指出了建立网络时减少门槛值附近的试验样本点,可以提高网络的预测能力.研究结果表明,该方法可以方便地获得不同应力比R下的疲劳裂纹扩展速率,从而达到减少试验次数,充分利用已有数据的目的.并且可以进一步应用于其他金属的疲劳裂纹扩展速率的预报.

  8. Predicting complex quantitative traits with Bayesian neural networks: a case study with Jersey cows and wheat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okut Hayrettin

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the study of associations between genomic data and complex phenotypes there may be relationships that are not amenable to parametric statistical modeling. Such associations have been investigated mainly using single-marker and Bayesian linear regression models that differ in their distributions, but that assume additive inheritance while ignoring interactions and non-linearity. When interactions have been included in the model, their effects have entered linearly. There is a growing interest in non-parametric methods for predicting quantitative traits based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces regressions on markers and radial basis functions. Artificial neural networks (ANN provide an alternative, because these act as universal approximators of complex functions and can capture non-linear relationships between predictors and responses, with the interplay among variables learned adaptively. ANNs are interesting candidates for analysis of traits affected by cryptic forms of gene action. Results We investigated various Bayesian ANN architectures using for predicting phenotypes in two data sets consisting of milk production in Jersey cows and yield of inbred lines of wheat. For the Jerseys, predictor variables were derived from pedigree and molecular marker (35,798 single nucleotide polymorphisms, SNPS information on 297 individually cows. The wheat data represented 599 lines, each genotyped with 1,279 markers. The ability of predicting fat, milk and protein yield was low when using pedigrees, but it was better when SNPs were employed, irrespective of the ANN trained. Predictive ability was even better in wheat because the trait was a mean, as opposed to an individual phenotype in cows. Non-linear neural networks outperformed a linear model in predictive ability in both data sets, but more clearly in wheat. Conclusion Results suggest that neural networks may be useful for predicting complex traits using high

  9. An object-oriented Bayesian network modeling the causes of leg disorders in finisher herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Tina Birk; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Toft, Nils

    2009-01-01

    The implementation of an effective control strategy against disease in a finisher herd requires knowledge regarding the disease level in the herd. A Bayesian network was constructed that can estimate risk indexes for three cause-categories of leg disorders in a finisher herd. The cause...... pigs (e.g. results from diagnostic tests) were used to estimate the most likely cause of leg disorders at herd level. As information to the model originated from two different levels, we used an object-oriented structure in order to ease the specification of the Bayesian network. Hence, a Herd class...

  10. Applying Object Oriented Bayesian Networks to Large Medical Decision Support Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bangsø, Olav; Olesen, Kristian Grønborg

    2003-01-01

    is a temporal repetition of identical model structures, where the basic building block consists of a one hour model of the metabolism. This type of model is usually modeled as a dynamic Bayesian Network, and we show how object reuse, and in particular the concept of time slices, can be exploited...... in the construction of such models. The other application is the MUNIN system for diagnosis of perioheral muscle and nerve diseases, that is characterized by a number of (almost) identical anatomical structures. The modeling of such structures benefit drom inheritance properties of object oriented Bayesian networks...

  11. A non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian network with sequentially coupled interaction parameters for applications in systems and synthetic biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

    2012-07-12

    An important and challenging problem in systems biology is the inference of gene regulatory networks from short non-stationary time series of transcriptional profiles. A popular approach that has been widely applied to this end is based on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), although traditional homogeneous DBNs fail to model the non-stationarity and time-varying nature of the gene regulatory processes. Various authors have therefore recently proposed combining DBNs with multiple changepoint processes to obtain time varying dynamic Bayesian networks (TV-DBNs). However, TV-DBNs are not without problems. Gene expression time series are typically short, which leaves the model over-flexible, leading to over-fitting or inflated inference uncertainty. In the present paper, we introduce a Bayesian regularization scheme that addresses this difficulty. Our approach is based on the rationale that changes in gene regulatory processes appear gradually during an organism's life cycle or in response to a changing environment, and we have integrated this notion in the prior distribution of the TV-DBN parameters. We have extensively tested our regularized TV-DBN model on synthetic data, in which we have simulated short non-homogeneous time series produced from a system subject to gradual change. We have then applied our method to real-world gene expression time series, measured during the life cycle of Drosophila melanogaster, under artificially generated constant light condition in Arabidopsis thaliana, and from a synthetically designed strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae exposed to a changing environment.

  12. Coordinated Decision Optimization Based on Hiberarchy Discrete Dynamic Bayesian Network%基于多层递推离散动态贝叶斯网络的协同决策优化

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    唐政; 高晓光; 孙超

    2011-01-01

    Based on the hiberarchy characteristic of the coordinated use between electronic countermeasure and fire attack, the hiberarchy discrete dynamic bayesian network coordinated decision model is established. Then, estate transition probability is confirmed according to the coordinated degree between electronic countermeasure and fire attack. Furthermore, the forward and back algorithm is proposed to solve the coordinated decision problem. Finally, the simulation result shows that the proposed method can reduce the communication transmission, shorten decision time, and enhance the decision adaptability on dynamic and uncertainty condition greatly.%根据电子对抗与火力打击协同使用分层递阶控制的特点,建立基于多层递推离散动态贝叶斯网络协同使用决策模型.依据协同理论,引入协同度概念,用协同度作为确定电子对抗与火力打击协同使用决策随时间变化的状态转移概率的依据.提出前向后向递归搜索算法,求解电子对抗与火力打击协同使用决策问题.通过仿真实验证明,该方法能够减少信息传输,缩短决策时间,大大增强动态不确定条件下决策的适应性.

  13. 基于时变贝叶斯网络的无人机态势评估模型%Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Situation Assessment Model Based on Time-varying Bayesian Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王长清; 王振玲

    2011-01-01

    In order to solve the problem of situation assessment for Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle(UAV) in emergent threats environment, this paper presents a situation assessment model based on Time-varying Bayesian Networks(TVBN). The Posteriori Probability Support Vector Machine (PPSVM) is used to make the uncertain classification of pop-up threat information, and these classification results are used as input information into the assessment model as evidences. Probabilistic reasoning is proposed to complete the situation assessment in dynamic environment. The rationality of the model and the accuracy of situation assessment are verified by simulating the task that the UAV detects the emergent threats.%为解决无人机(UAV)在突发威胁下的环境感知问题,提出一个基于后验概率支持向量机(PPSVM)的时变贝叶斯网络(TVBN)态势评估模型,利用PPSVM完成突发威胁观测信息的分类处理,将分类信息的不确定度作为态势评估的证据,使用概率推理实现动态环境下的态势评估.以UAV规避空中突发威胁为仿真背景验证该模型的正确性,并表明其评估结果能真实地反映环境变化情况.

  14. Application of Bayesian Decision Networks for sustainable groundwater resources management in semi-arid regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohajerani, Hadis; Casper, Markus; Kholghi, Majid; Mosaedi, Abolfazl; Farmani, Raziyeh; Saadoddin, Amir; Meftah Halaghi, Mehdi

    2017-04-01

    This paper presents management of groundwater resource using a Bayesian Decision Network (BDN). The Kordkooy region in North East of Iran has been selected as study area. The region has been divided to three parts based on Transmissivity (T) and Electrical Conductivity (EC) values. The BDN parameters (prior probabilities and Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs) have been identified for each of the three zones. Three groups of management scenarios have been developed based on the two decision variables including "Crop pattern" and "Domestic water demand" across the three zones of the study area: 1) status quo management for all three zones representing current conditions. 2) the effect of change in cropping pattern on management endpoints and 3) the effect of increasing domestic water demand on management endpoints in the future. The outcomes arising from implementing each scenario have been predicted using the BDN for each of the zones. Results reveal that probability of drawdown in groundwater levels of southern areas is relatively high compared with other zones. Groundwater withdrawal from northern and northwestern areas of the study area should be limited due to the groundwater quality problems associated with shallow groundwater of these two zones. The ability of the Bayesian Decision Network to take into account key uncertainties in natural resources and performing a meaningful analysis in cases where there is not vast amount of information and observed data available -even based partly on expert opinion- emphasizes the advantage of this approach in groundwater resources management process, as limited data availability was a serious problem faced by groundwater resources of the study area.

  15. Feasibility of streamlining an interactive Bayesian-based diagnostic support tool designed for clinical practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Po-Hao; Botzolakis, Emmanuel; Mohan, Suyash; Bryan, R. N.; Cook, Tessa

    2016-03-01

    In radiology, diagnostic errors occur either through the failure of detection or incorrect interpretation. Errors are estimated to occur in 30-35% of all exams and contribute to 40-54% of medical malpractice litigations. In this work, we focus on reducing incorrect interpretation of known imaging features. Existing literature categorizes cognitive bias leading a radiologist to an incorrect diagnosis despite having correctly recognized the abnormal imaging features: anchoring bias, framing effect, availability bias, and premature closure. Computational methods make a unique contribution, as they do not exhibit the same cognitive biases as a human. Bayesian networks formalize the diagnostic process. They modify pre-test diagnostic probabilities using clinical and imaging features, arriving at a post-test probability for each possible diagnosis. To translate Bayesian networks to clinical practice, we implemented an entirely web-based open-source software tool. In this tool, the radiologist first selects a network of choice (e.g. basal ganglia). Then, large, clearly labeled buttons displaying salient imaging features are displayed on the screen serving both as a checklist and for input. As the radiologist inputs the value of an extracted imaging feature, the conditional probabilities of each possible diagnosis are updated. The software presents its level of diagnostic discrimination using a Pareto distribution chart, updated with each additional imaging feature. Active collaboration with the clinical radiologist is a feasible approach to software design and leads to design decisions closely coupling the complex mathematics of conditional probability in Bayesian networks with practice.

  16. Software Development Effort Estimation using Fuzzy Bayesian Belief Network with COCOMO II

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.Chakraborty

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Software development has always been characterized by some metrics. One of the greatest challenges for software developers lies in predicting the development effort for a software system which is based on developer abilities, size, complexity and other metrics. Several algorithmic cost estimation models such as Boehm?s COCOMO, Albrecht's' Function Point Analysis, Putnam?s SLIM, ESTIMACS etc. are available but every model has its own pros and cons in estimating development cost and effort. Most common reason being project data which is available in the initial stages of project is often incomplete, inconsistent, uncertain and unclear. In this paper, Bayesian probabilistic model has been explored to overcome the problems of uncertainty and imprecision resulting in improved process of software development effort estimation. This paper considers a software estimation approach using six key cost drivers in COCOMO II model. The selected cost drivers are the inputs to systems. The concept of Fuzzy Bayesian Belief Network (FBBN has been introduced to improve the accuracy of the estimation. Results shows that the value of MMRE (Mean of Magnitude of Relative Error and PRED obtained by means of FBBN is much better as compared to the MMRE and PRED of Fuzzy COCOMO II models. The validation of results was carried out on NASA-93 dem COCOMO II dataset.

  17. Drilling Site Risk Assessment Based on Bayesian Network%基于贝叶斯网络的钻井作业现场风险评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王兵; 杨小莹; 赵春兰; 肖斌

    2015-01-01

    In view of the high investment and risk and uncertainties in drilling operation,the safety evaluation about the drilling operation is carried out in the paper. The method of evaluating risk and seeking risk resource during drilling operation has been developed by using Bayes network. The 32 risk factors during the drilling operation could be classified into man-made risk factors and natural risk factors by analyzing the history data and identifying the dangerous factors with the help of expertise. The Bayes network topological structure and conditional probability table(CPT)was developed for drilling operation risk;the probability was predicted forward and diagnosed backward;the safety probability of drilling operation was evaluated quantitative and the most dangerous factor was found out. After applying the Bayes network model to Well L gas drilling operation,we got the risk probability of man-made risk and natural risk at 0.108 and 0.165,respectively,the risk probability of Well L gas drilling operation at 0.137. The many dangerous factors are defects in monitor during the drilling process,lack of security protection facilities,hidden trouble induced by drilling operation,defect in well-control equipment and management in production. This will provide precise diagnostic data for operators and decision-making for safe production.%针对高投入、高风险和不确定性的钻井作业现场,展开了安全评价研究。提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络定量评价钻井作业现场风险、寻找风险源的方法。通过分析历史数据与借助专家经验识别不安全因素,将影响钻井作业现场安全性的32个因素分为“人的不安全行为”和“物的不安全状态”,同时构建了钻井作业现场安全性的贝叶斯网络拓扑结构,并进行了概率推理向前预测和向后诊断,定量评估了钻井作业现场安全性,找出了影响最突出的不安全因素。将其应用于龙岗气田L井钻井作业

  18. Personalized Multi-Student Improvement Based on Bayesian Cybernetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaburlasos, Vassilis G.; Marinagi, Catherine C.; Tsoukalas, Vassilis Th.

    2008-01-01

    This work presents innovative cybernetics (feedback) techniques based on Bayesian statistics for drawing questions from an Item Bank towards personalized multi-student improvement. A novel software tool, namely "Module for Adaptive Assessment of Students" (or, "MAAS" for short), implements the proposed (feedback) techniques. In conclusion, a pilot…

  19. Bayesian-based localization in inhomogeneous transmission media

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nadimi, E. S.; Blanes-Vidal, V.; Johansen, P. M.

    2013-01-01

    with heterogeneous transmission medium as a function of the given RSS measurements and the characteristics of the heterogeneous medium. The results of this study show that the localization mean square error (MSE) of the Bayesian-based method outperformed all other existing localization approaches. © 2013 ACM....

  20. Adaptive modelling of gene regulatory network using Bayesian information criterion-guided sparse regression approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Ming; Shen, Weiming; Wang, Hong-Qiang; Chong, Yanwen

    2016-12-01

    Inferring gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from microarray expression data are an important but challenging issue in systems biology. In this study, the authors propose a Bayesian information criterion (BIC)-guided sparse regression approach for GRN reconstruction. This approach can adaptively model GRNs by optimising the l1-norm regularisation of sparse regression based on a modified version of BIC. The use of the regularisation strategy ensures the inferred GRNs to be as sparse as natural, while the modified BIC allows incorporating prior knowledge on expression regulation and thus avoids the overestimation of expression regulators as usual. Especially, the proposed method provides a clear interpretation of combinatorial regulations of gene expression by optimally extracting regulation coordination for a given target gene. Experimental results on both simulation data and real-world microarray data demonstrate the competent performance of discovering regulatory relationships in GRN reconstruction.