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Sample records for bayesian methods maximum

  1. Maximum entropy and Bayesian methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, C.R.; Erickson, G.J.; Neudorfer, P.O.

    1992-01-01

    Bayesian probability theory and Maximum Entropy methods are at the core of a new view of scientific inference. These 'new' ideas, along with the revolution in computational methods afforded by modern computers allow astronomers, electrical engineers, image processors of any type, NMR chemists and physicists, and anyone at all who has to deal with incomplete and noisy data, to take advantage of methods that, in the past, have been applied only in some areas of theoretical physics. The title workshops have been the focus of a group of researchers from many different fields, and this diversity is evident in this book. There are tutorial and theoretical papers, and applications in a very wide variety of fields. Almost any instance of dealing with incomplete and noisy data can be usefully treated by these methods, and many areas of theoretical research are being enhanced by the thoughtful application of Bayes' theorem. Contributions contained in this volume present a state-of-the-art overview that will be influential and useful for many years to come

  2. The maximum entropy method of moments and Bayesian probability theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bretthorst, G. Larry

    2013-08-01

    The problem of density estimation occurs in many disciplines. For example, in MRI it is often necessary to classify the types of tissues in an image. To perform this classification one must first identify the characteristics of the tissues to be classified. These characteristics might be the intensity of a T1 weighted image and in MRI many other types of characteristic weightings (classifiers) may be generated. In a given tissue type there is no single intensity that characterizes the tissue, rather there is a distribution of intensities. Often this distributions can be characterized by a Gaussian, but just as often it is much more complicated. Either way, estimating the distribution of intensities is an inference problem. In the case of a Gaussian distribution, one must estimate the mean and standard deviation. However, in the Non-Gaussian case the shape of the density function itself must be inferred. Three common techniques for estimating density functions are binned histograms [1, 2], kernel density estimation [3, 4], and the maximum entropy method of moments [5, 6]. In the introduction, the maximum entropy method of moments will be reviewed. Some of its problems and conditions under which it fails will be discussed. Then in later sections, the functional form of the maximum entropy method of moments probability distribution will be incorporated into Bayesian probability theory. It will be shown that Bayesian probability theory solves all of the problems with the maximum entropy method of moments. One gets posterior probabilities for the Lagrange multipliers, and, finally, one can put error bars on the resulting estimated density function.

  3. Bayesian maximum posterior probability method for interpreting plutonium urinalysis data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, G.; Inkret, W.C.

    1996-01-01

    A new internal dosimetry code for interpreting urinalysis data in terms of radionuclide intakes is described for the case of plutonium. The mathematical method is to maximise the Bayesian posterior probability using an entropy function as the prior probability distribution. A software package (MEMSYS) developed for image reconstruction is used. Some advantages of the new code are that it ensures positive calculated dose, it smooths out fluctuating data, and it provides an estimate of the propagated uncertainty in the calculated doses. (author)

  4. Conditional maximum-entropy method for selecting prior distributions in Bayesian statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abe, Sumiyoshi

    2014-11-01

    The conditional maximum-entropy method (abbreviated here as C-MaxEnt) is formulated for selecting prior probability distributions in Bayesian statistics for parameter estimation. This method is inspired by a statistical-mechanical approach to systems governed by dynamics with largely separated time scales and is based on three key concepts: conjugate pairs of variables, dimensionless integration measures with coarse-graining factors and partial maximization of the joint entropy. The method enables one to calculate a prior purely from a likelihood in a simple way. It is shown, in particular, how it not only yields Jeffreys's rules but also reveals new structures hidden behind them.

  5. Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutihac, R.; Cicuttin, A.; Cerdeira, A.; Stanciulescu, C.

    1998-12-01

    Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)

  6. Estimation of Lithological Classification in Taipei Basin: A Bayesian Maximum Entropy Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Meng-Ting; Lin, Yuan-Chien; Yu, Hwa-Lung

    2015-04-01

    In environmental or other scientific applications, we must have a certain understanding of geological lithological composition. Because of restrictions of real conditions, only limited amount of data can be acquired. To find out the lithological distribution in the study area, many spatial statistical methods used to estimate the lithological composition on unsampled points or grids. This study applied the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME method), which is an emerging method of the geological spatiotemporal statistics field. The BME method can identify the spatiotemporal correlation of the data, and combine not only the hard data but the soft data to improve estimation. The data of lithological classification is discrete categorical data. Therefore, this research applied Categorical BME to establish a complete three-dimensional Lithological estimation model. Apply the limited hard data from the cores and the soft data generated from the geological dating data and the virtual wells to estimate the three-dimensional lithological classification in Taipei Basin. Keywords: Categorical Bayesian Maximum Entropy method, Lithological Classification, Hydrogeological Setting

  7. Bayesian and maximum entropy methods for fusion diagnostic measurements with compact neutron spectrometers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reginatto, Marcel; Zimbal, Andreas

    2008-01-01

    In applications of neutron spectrometry to fusion diagnostics, it is advantageous to use methods of data analysis which can extract information from the spectrum that is directly related to the parameters of interest that describe the plasma. We present here methods of data analysis which were developed with this goal in mind, and which were applied to spectrometric measurements made with an organic liquid scintillation detector (type NE213). In our approach, we combine Bayesian parameter estimation methods and unfolding methods based on the maximum entropy principle. This two-step method allows us to optimize the analysis of the data depending on the type of information that we want to extract from the measurements. To illustrate these methods, we analyze neutron measurements made at the PTB accelerator under controlled conditions, using accelerator-produced neutron beams. Although the methods have been chosen with a specific application in mind, they are general enough to be useful for many other types of measurements

  8. Estimation of Fine Particulate Matter in Taipei Using Landuse Regression and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Ming Kuo

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Fine airborne particulate matter (PM2.5 has adverse effects on human health. Assessing the long-term effects of PM2.5 exposure on human health and ecology is often limited by a lack of reliable PM2.5 measurements. In Taipei, PM2.5 levels were not systematically measured until August, 2005. Due to the popularity of geographic information systems (GIS, the landuse regression method has been widely used in the spatial estimation of PM concentrations. This method accounts for the potential contributing factors of the local environment, such as traffic volume. Geostatistical methods, on other hand, account for the spatiotemporal dependence among the observations of ambient pollutants. This study assesses the performance of the landuse regression model for the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 in the Taipei area. Specifically, this study integrates the landuse regression model with the geostatistical approach within the framework of the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME method. The resulting epistemic framework can assimilate knowledge bases including: (a empirical-based spatial trends of PM concentration based on landuse regression, (b the spatio-temporal dependence among PM observation information, and (c site-specific PM observations. The proposed approach performs the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 levels in the Taipei area (Taiwan from 2005–2007.

  9. Estimation of fine particulate matter in Taipei using landuse regression and bayesian maximum entropy methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hwa-Lung; Wang, Chih-Hsih; Liu, Ming-Che; Kuo, Yi-Ming

    2011-06-01

    Fine airborne particulate matter (PM2.5) has adverse effects on human health. Assessing the long-term effects of PM2.5 exposure on human health and ecology is often limited by a lack of reliable PM2.5 measurements. In Taipei, PM2.5 levels were not systematically measured until August, 2005. Due to the popularity of geographic information systems (GIS), the landuse regression method has been widely used in the spatial estimation of PM concentrations. This method accounts for the potential contributing factors of the local environment, such as traffic volume. Geostatistical methods, on other hand, account for the spatiotemporal dependence among the observations of ambient pollutants. This study assesses the performance of the landuse regression model for the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 in the Taipei area. Specifically, this study integrates the landuse regression model with the geostatistical approach within the framework of the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method. The resulting epistemic framework can assimilate knowledge bases including: (a) empirical-based spatial trends of PM concentration based on landuse regression, (b) the spatio-temporal dependence among PM observation information, and (c) site-specific PM observations. The proposed approach performs the spatiotemporal estimation of PM2.5 levels in the Taipei area (Taiwan) from 2005-2007.

  10. Merging daily sea surface temperature data from multiple satellites using a Bayesian maximum entropy method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Shaolei; Yang, Xiaofeng; Dong, Di; Li, Ziwei

    2015-12-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) is an important variable for understanding interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. SST fusion is crucial for acquiring SST products of high spatial resolution and coverage. This study introduces a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method for blending daily SSTs from multiple satellite sensors. A new spatiotemporal covariance model of an SST field is built to integrate not only single-day SSTs but also time-adjacent SSTs. In addition, AVHRR 30-year SST climatology data are introduced as soft data at the estimation points to improve the accuracy of blended results within the BME framework. The merged SSTs, with a spatial resolution of 4 km and a temporal resolution of 24 hours, are produced in the Western Pacific Ocean region to demonstrate and evaluate the proposed methodology. Comparisons with in situ drifting buoy observations show that the merged SSTs are accurate and the bias and root-mean-square errors for the comparison are 0.15°C and 0.72°C, respectively.

  11. Spatiotemporal fusion of multiple-satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) products using Bayesian maximum entropy method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Qingxin; Bo, Yanchen; Zhu, Yuxin

    2016-04-01

    Merging multisensor aerosol optical depth (AOD) products is an effective way to produce more spatiotemporally complete and accurate AOD products. A spatiotemporal statistical data fusion framework based on a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method was developed for merging satellite AOD products in East Asia. The advantages of the presented merging framework are that it not only utilizes the spatiotemporal autocorrelations but also explicitly incorporates the uncertainties of the AOD products being merged. The satellite AOD products used for merging are the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5.1 Level-2 AOD products (MOD04_L2) and the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) Deep Blue Level 2 AOD products (SWDB_L2). The results show that the average completeness of the merged AOD data is 95.2%,which is significantly superior to the completeness of MOD04_L2 (22.9%) and SWDB_L2 (20.2%). By comparing the merged AOD to the Aerosol Robotic Network AOD records, the results show that the correlation coefficient (0.75), root-mean-square error (0.29), and mean bias (0.068) of the merged AOD are close to those (the correlation coefficient (0.82), root-mean-square error (0.19), and mean bias (0.059)) of the MODIS AOD. In the regions where both MODIS and SeaWiFS have valid observations, the accuracy of the merged AOD is higher than those of MODIS and SeaWiFS AODs. Even in regions where both MODIS and SeaWiFS AODs are missing, the accuracy of the merged AOD is also close to the accuracy of the regions where both MODIS and SeaWiFS have valid observations.

  12. The determination of nuclear charge distributions using a Bayesian maximum entropy method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macaulay, V.A.; Buck, B.

    1995-01-01

    We treat the inference of nuclear charge densities from measurements of elastic electron scattering cross sections. In order to get the most reliable information from expensively acquired, incomplete and noisy measurements, we use Bayesian probability theory. Very little prior information about the charge densities is assumed. We derive a prior probability distribution which is a generalization of a form used widely in image restoration based on the entropy of a physical density. From the posterior distribution of possible densities, we select the most probable one, and show how error bars can be evaluated. These have very reasonable properties, such as increasing without bound as hypotheses about finer scale structures are included in the hypothesis space. The methods are demonstrated by using data on the nuclei 4 He and 12 C. (orig.)

  13. Maximum Quantum Entropy Method

    OpenAIRE

    Sim, Jae-Hoon; Han, Myung Joon

    2018-01-01

    Maximum entropy method for analytic continuation is extended by introducing quantum relative entropy. This new method is formulated in terms of matrix-valued functions and therefore invariant under arbitrary unitary transformation of input matrix. As a result, the continuation of off-diagonal elements becomes straightforward. Without introducing any further ambiguity, the Bayesian probabilistic interpretation is maintained just as in the conventional maximum entropy method. The applications o...

  14. Spatiotemporal analysis and mapping of oral cancer risk in changhua county (taiwan): an application of generalized bayesian maximum entropy method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chiang, Chi-Ting; Lin, Shu-De; Chang, Tsun-Kuo

    2010-02-01

    Incidence rate of oral cancer in Changhua County is the highest among the 23 counties of Taiwan during 2001. However, in health data analysis, crude or adjusted incidence rates of a rare event (e.g., cancer) for small populations often exhibit high variances and are, thus, less reliable. We proposed a generalized Bayesian Maximum Entropy (GBME) analysis of spatiotemporal disease mapping under conditions of considerable data uncertainty. GBME was used to study the oral cancer population incidence in Changhua County (Taiwan). Methodologically, GBME is based on an epistematics principles framework and generates spatiotemporal estimates of oral cancer incidence rates. In a way, it accounts for the multi-sourced uncertainty of rates, including small population effects, and the composite space-time dependence of rare events in terms of an extended Poisson-based semivariogram. The results showed that GBME analysis alleviates the noises of oral cancer data from population size effect. Comparing to the raw incidence data, the maps of GBME-estimated results can identify high risk oral cancer regions in Changhua County, where the prevalence of betel quid chewing and cigarette smoking is relatively higher than the rest of the areas. GBME method is a valuable tool for spatiotemporal disease mapping under conditions of uncertainty. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Estimation of Land Surface Temperature through Blending MODIS and AMSR-E Data with the Bayesian Maximum Entropy Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaokang Kou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Land surface temperature (LST plays a major role in the study of surface energy balances. Remote sensing techniques provide ways to monitor LST at large scales. However, due to atmospheric influences, significant missing data exist in LST products retrieved from satellite thermal infrared (TIR remotely sensed data. Although passive microwaves (PMWs are able to overcome these atmospheric influences while estimating LST, the data are constrained by low spatial resolution. In this study, to obtain complete and high-quality LST data, the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME method was introduced to merge 0.01° and 0.25° LSTs inversed from MODIS and AMSR-E data, respectively. The result showed that the missing LSTs in cloudy pixels were filled completely, and the availability of merged LSTs reaches 100%. Because the depths of LST and soil temperature measurements are different, before validating the merged LST, the station measurements were calibrated with an empirical equation between MODIS LST and 0~5 cm soil temperatures. The results showed that the accuracy of merged LSTs increased with the increasing quantity of utilized data, and as the availability of utilized data increased from 25.2% to 91.4%, the RMSEs of the merged data decreased from 4.53 °C to 2.31 °C. In addition, compared with the filling gap method in which MODIS LST gaps were filled with AMSR-E LST directly, the merged LSTs from the BME method showed better spatial continuity. The different penetration depths of TIR and PMWs may influence fusion performance and still require further studies.

  16. Objective Bayesianism and the Maximum Entropy Principle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Williamson

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective Bayesian epistemology invokes three norms: the strengths of our beliefs should be probabilities; they should be calibrated to our evidence of physical probabilities; and they should otherwise equivocate sufficiently between the basic propositions that we can express. The three norms are sometimes explicated by appealing to the maximum entropy principle, which says that a belief function should be a probability function, from all those that are calibrated to evidence, that has maximum entropy. However, the three norms of objective Bayesianism are usually justified in different ways. In this paper, we show that the three norms can all be subsumed under a single justification in terms of minimising worst-case expected loss. This, in turn, is equivalent to maximising a generalised notion of entropy. We suggest that requiring language invariance, in addition to minimising worst-case expected loss, motivates maximisation of standard entropy as opposed to maximisation of other instances of generalised entropy. Our argument also provides a qualified justification for updating degrees of belief by Bayesian conditionalisation. However, conditional probabilities play a less central part in the objective Bayesian account than they do under the subjective view of Bayesianism, leading to a reduced role for Bayes’ Theorem.

  17. Bayesian interpretation of Generalized empirical likelihood by maximum entropy

    OpenAIRE

    Rochet , Paul

    2011-01-01

    We study a parametric estimation problem related to moment condition models. As an alternative to the generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) and the generalized method of moments (GMM), a Bayesian approach to the problem can be adopted, extending the MEM procedure to parametric moment conditions. We show in particular that a large number of GEL estimators can be interpreted as a maximum entropy solution. Moreover, we provide a more general field of applications by proving the method to be rob...

  18. Comparison Between Bayesian and Maximum Entropy Analyses of Flow Networks†

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven H. Waldrip

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available We compare the application of Bayesian inference and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt method for the analysis of flow networks, such as water, electrical and transport networks. The two methods have the advantage of allowing a probabilistic prediction of flow rates and other variables, when there is insufficient information to obtain a deterministic solution, and also allow the effects of uncertainty to be included. Both methods of inference update a prior to a posterior probability density function (pdf by the inclusion of new information, in the form of data or constraints. The MaxEnt method maximises an entropy function subject to constraints, using the method of Lagrange multipliers,to give the posterior, while the Bayesian method finds its posterior by multiplying the prior with likelihood functions incorporating the measured data. In this study, we examine MaxEnt using soft constraints, either included in the prior or as probabilistic constraints, in addition to standard moment constraints. We show that when the prior is Gaussian,both Bayesian inference and the MaxEnt method with soft prior constraints give the same posterior means, but their covariances are different. In the Bayesian method, the interactions between variables are applied through the likelihood function, using second or higher-order cross-terms within the posterior pdf. In contrast, the MaxEnt method incorporates interactions between variables using Lagrange multipliers, avoiding second-order correlation terms in the posterior covariance. The MaxEnt method with soft prior constraints, therefore, has a numerical advantage over Bayesian inference, in that the covariance terms are avoided in its integrations. The second MaxEnt method with soft probabilistic constraints is shown to give posterior means of similar, but not identical, structure to the other two methods, due to its different formulation.

  19. Basics of Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Sujit K

    2010-01-01

    Bayesian methods are rapidly becoming popular tools for making statistical inference in various fields of science including biology, engineering, finance, and genetics. One of the key aspects of Bayesian inferential method is its logical foundation that provides a coherent framework to utilize not only empirical but also scientific information available to a researcher. Prior knowledge arising from scientific background, expert judgment, or previously collected data is used to build a prior distribution which is then combined with current data via the likelihood function to characterize the current state of knowledge using the so-called posterior distribution. Bayesian methods allow the use of models of complex physical phenomena that were previously too difficult to estimate (e.g., using asymptotic approximations). Bayesian methods offer a means of more fully understanding issues that are central to many practical problems by allowing researchers to build integrated models based on hierarchical conditional distributions that can be estimated even with limited amounts of data. Furthermore, advances in numerical integration methods, particularly those based on Monte Carlo methods, have made it possible to compute the optimal Bayes estimators. However, there is a reasonably wide gap between the background of the empirically trained scientists and the full weight of Bayesian statistical inference. Hence, one of the goals of this chapter is to bridge the gap by offering elementary to advanced concepts that emphasize linkages between standard approaches and full probability modeling via Bayesian methods.

  20. Bayesian methods for data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Carlin, Bradley P.

    2009-01-01

    Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors

  1. Bayesian methods in reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

    1991-11-01

    The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

  2. A note on the relationships between multiple imputation, maximum likelihood and fully Bayesian methods for missing responses in linear regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qingxia; Ibrahim, Joseph G

    2014-07-01

    Multiple Imputation, Maximum Likelihood and Fully Bayesian methods are the three most commonly used model-based approaches in missing data problems. Although it is easy to show that when the responses are missing at random (MAR), the complete case analysis is unbiased and efficient, the aforementioned methods are still commonly used in practice for this setting. To examine the performance of and relationships between these three methods in this setting, we derive and investigate small sample and asymptotic expressions of the estimates and standard errors, and fully examine how these estimates are related for the three approaches in the linear regression model when the responses are MAR. We show that when the responses are MAR in the linear model, the estimates of the regression coefficients using these three methods are asymptotically equivalent to the complete case estimates under general conditions. One simulation and a real data set from a liver cancer clinical trial are given to compare the properties of these methods when the responses are MAR.

  3. Estimating the spatial distribution of soil moisture based on Bayesian maximum entropy method with auxiliary data from remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Shengguo; Zhu, Zhongli; Liu, Shaomin; Jin, Rui; Yang, Guangchao; Tan, Lei

    2014-10-01

    Soil moisture (SM) plays a fundamental role in the land-atmosphere exchange process. Spatial estimation based on multi in situ (network) data is a critical way to understand the spatial structure and variation of land surface soil moisture. Theoretically, integrating densely sampled auxiliary data spatially correlated with soil moisture into the procedure of spatial estimation can improve its accuracy. In this study, we present a novel approach to estimate the spatial pattern of soil moisture by using the BME method based on wireless sensor network data and auxiliary information from ASTER (Terra) land surface temperature measurements. For comparison, three traditional geostatistic methods were also applied: ordinary kriging (OK), which used the wireless sensor network data only, regression kriging (RK) and ordinary co-kriging (Co-OK) which both integrated the ASTER land surface temperature as a covariate. In Co-OK, LST was linearly contained in the estimator, in RK, estimator is expressed as the sum of the regression estimate and the kriged estimate of the spatially correlated residual, but in BME, the ASTER land surface temperature was first retrieved as soil moisture based on the linear regression, then, the t-distributed prediction interval (PI) of soil moisture was estimated and used as soft data in probability form. The results indicate that all three methods provide reasonable estimations. Co-OK, RK and BME can provide a more accurate spatial estimation by integrating the auxiliary information Compared to OK. RK and BME shows more obvious improvement compared to Co-OK, and even BME can perform slightly better than RK. The inherent issue of spatial estimation (overestimation in the range of low values and underestimation in the range of high values) can also be further improved in both RK and BME. We can conclude that integrating auxiliary data into spatial estimation can indeed improve the accuracy, BME and RK take better advantage of the auxiliary

  4. Bayesian Reliability Estimation for Deteriorating Systems with Limited Samples Using the Maximum Entropy Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Xiao, Ning-Cong; Li, Yan-Feng; Wang, Zhonglai; Peng, Weiwen; Huang, Hong-Zhong

    2013-01-01

    In this paper the combinations of maximum entropy method and Bayesian inference for reliability assessment of deteriorating system is proposed. Due to various uncertainties, less data and incomplete information, system parameters usually cannot be determined precisely. These uncertainty parameters can be modeled by fuzzy sets theory and the Bayesian inference which have been proved to be useful for deteriorating systems under small sample sizes. The maximum entropy approach can be used to cal...

  5. Bayesian Monte Carlo method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajabalinejad, M.

    2010-01-01

    To reduce cost of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for time-consuming processes, Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) is introduced in this paper. The BMC method reduces number of realizations in MC according to the desired accuracy level. BMC also provides a possibility of considering more priors. In other words, different priors can be integrated into one model by using BMC to further reduce cost of simulations. This study suggests speeding up the simulation process by considering the logical dependence of neighboring points as prior information. This information is used in the BMC method to produce a predictive tool through the simulation process. The general methodology and algorithm of BMC method are presented in this paper. The BMC method is applied to the simplified break water model as well as the finite element model of 17th Street Canal in New Orleans, and the results are compared with the MC and Dynamic Bounds methods.

  6. Bayesian Methods and Universal Darwinism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, John

    2009-12-01

    Bayesian methods since the time of Laplace have been understood by their practitioners as closely aligned to the scientific method. Indeed a recent Champion of Bayesian methods, E. T. Jaynes, titled his textbook on the subject Probability Theory: the Logic of Science. Many philosophers of science including Karl Popper and Donald Campbell have interpreted the evolution of Science as a Darwinian process consisting of a `copy with selective retention' algorithm abstracted from Darwin's theory of Natural Selection. Arguments are presented for an isomorphism between Bayesian Methods and Darwinian processes. Universal Darwinism, as the term has been developed by Richard Dawkins, Daniel Dennett and Susan Blackmore, is the collection of scientific theories which explain the creation and evolution of their subject matter as due to the Operation of Darwinian processes. These subject matters span the fields of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences. The principle of Maximum Entropy states that Systems will evolve to states of highest entropy subject to the constraints of scientific law. This principle may be inverted to provide illumination as to the nature of scientific law. Our best cosmological theories suggest the universe contained much less complexity during the period shortly after the Big Bang than it does at present. The scientific subject matter of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences has been created since that time. An explanation is proposed for the existence of this subject matter as due to the evolution of constraints in the form of adaptations imposed on Maximum Entropy. It is argued these adaptations were discovered and instantiated through the Operations of a succession of Darwinian processes.

  7. Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation of genetic maps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    York, Thomas L.; Durrett, Richard T.; Tanksley, Steven

    2005-01-01

    There has recently been increased interest in the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-based Bayesian methods for estimating genetic maps. The advantage of these methods is that they can deal accurately with missing data and genotyping errors. Here we present an extension of the previous methods...... of genotyping errors. A similar advantage of the Bayesian method was not observed for missing data. We also re-analyse a recently published set of data from the eggplant and show that the use of the MCMC-based method leads to smaller estimates of genetic distances....

  8. Maximum entropy methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ponman, T.J.

    1984-01-01

    For some years now two different expressions have been in use for maximum entropy image restoration and there has been some controversy over which one is appropriate for a given problem. Here two further entropies are presented and it is argued that there is no single correct algorithm. The properties of the four different methods are compared using simple 1D simulations with a view to showing how they can be used together to gain as much information as possible about the original object. (orig.)

  9. Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

    CERN Document Server

    Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...

  10. Bayesian Reliability Estimation for Deteriorating Systems with Limited Samples Using the Maximum Entropy Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning-Cong Xiao

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the combinations of maximum entropy method and Bayesian inference for reliability assessment of deteriorating system is proposed. Due to various uncertainties, less data and incomplete information, system parameters usually cannot be determined precisely. These uncertainty parameters can be modeled by fuzzy sets theory and the Bayesian inference which have been proved to be useful for deteriorating systems under small sample sizes. The maximum entropy approach can be used to calculate the maximum entropy density function of uncertainty parameters more accurately for it does not need any additional information and assumptions. Finally, two optimization models are presented which can be used to determine the lower and upper bounds of systems probability of failure under vague environment conditions. Two numerical examples are investigated to demonstrate the proposed method.

  11. Modelling maximum river flow by using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheong, R. Y.; Gabda, D.

    2017-09-01

    Analysis of flood trends is vital since flooding threatens human living in terms of financial, environment and security. The data of annual maximum river flows in Sabah were fitted into generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) raised naturally when working with GEV distribution. However, previous researches showed that MLE provide unstable results especially in small sample size. In this study, we used different Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based on Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to estimate GEV parameters. Bayesian MCMC method is a statistical inference which studies the parameter estimation by using posterior distribution based on Bayes’ theorem. Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to overcome the high dimensional state space faced in Monte Carlo method. This approach also considers more uncertainty in parameter estimation which then presents a better prediction on maximum river flow in Sabah.

  12. Applied Bayesian hierarchical methods

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Congdon, P

    2010-01-01

    ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 Posterior Inference from Bayes Formula . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampling in Relation to Monte Carlo Methods: Obtaining Posterior...

  13. Deep Learning and Bayesian Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prosper Harrison B.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A revolution is underway in which deep neural networks are routinely used to solve diffcult problems such as face recognition and natural language understanding. Particle physicists have taken notice and have started to deploy these methods, achieving results that suggest a potentially significant shift in how data might be analyzed in the not too distant future. We discuss a few recent developments in the application of deep neural networks and then indulge in speculation about how such methods might be used to automate certain aspects of data analysis in particle physics. Next, the connection to Bayesian methods is discussed and the paper ends with thoughts on a significant practical issue, namely, how, from a Bayesian perspective, one might optimize the construction of deep neural networks.

  14. Comparative Study of Inference Methods for Bayesian Nonnegative Matrix Factorisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brouwer, Thomas; Frellsen, Jes; Liò, Pietro

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we study the trade-offs of different inference approaches for Bayesian matrix factorisation methods, which are commonly used for predicting missing values, and for finding patterns in the data. In particular, we consider Bayesian nonnegative variants of matrix factorisation and tri......-factorisation, and compare non-probabilistic inference, Gibbs sampling, variational Bayesian inference, and a maximum-a-posteriori approach. The variational approach is new for the Bayesian nonnegative models. We compare their convergence, and robustness to noise and sparsity of the data, on both synthetic and real...

  15. The Location-Scale Mixture Exponential Power Distribution: A Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Rahnamaei, Z.; Nematollahi, N.; Farnoosh, R.

    2012-01-01

    We introduce an alternative skew-slash distribution by using the scale mixture of the exponential power distribution. We derive the properties of this distribution and estimate its parameter by Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian methods. By a simulation study we compute the mentioned estimators and their mean square errors, and we provide an example on real data to demonstrate the modeling strength of the new distribution.

  16. The Location-Scale Mixture Exponential Power Distribution: A Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Rahnamaei

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We introduce an alternative skew-slash distribution by using the scale mixture of the exponential power distribution. We derive the properties of this distribution and estimate its parameter by Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian methods. By a simulation study we compute the mentioned estimators and their mean square errors, and we provide an example on real data to demonstrate the modeling strength of the new distribution.

  17. Bayesian, Maximum Parsimony and UPGMA Models for Inferring the Phylogenies of Antelopes Using Mitochondrial Markers

    OpenAIRE

    Khan, Haseeb A.; Arif, Ibrahim A.; Bahkali, Ali H.; Al Farhan, Ahmad H.; Al Homaidan, Ali A.

    2008-01-01

    This investigation was aimed to compare the inference of antelope phylogenies resulting from the 16S rRNA, cytochrome-b (cyt-b) and d-loop segments of mitochondrial DNA using three different computational models including Bayesian (BA), maximum parsimony (MP) and unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean (UPGMA). The respective nucleotide sequences of three Oryx species (Oryx leucoryx, Oryx dammah and Oryx gazella) and an out-group (Addax nasomaculatus) were aligned and subjected to B...

  18. Bayesian methods for proteomic biomarker development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belinda Hernández

    2015-12-01

    In this review we provide an introduction to Bayesian inference and demonstrate some of the advantages of using a Bayesian framework. We summarize how Bayesian methods have been used previously in proteomics and other areas of bioinformatics. Finally, we describe some popular and emerging Bayesian models from the statistical literature and provide a worked tutorial including code snippets to show how these methods may be applied for the evaluation of proteomic biomarkers.

  19. Bayesian estimation methods in metrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, M.G.; Forbes, A.B.; Harris, P.M.

    2004-01-01

    In metrology -- the science of measurement -- a measurement result must be accompanied by a statement of its associated uncertainty. The degree of validity of a measurement result is determined by the validity of the uncertainty statement. In recognition of the importance of uncertainty evaluation, the International Standardization Organization in 1995 published the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement and the Guide has been widely adopted. The validity of uncertainty statements is tested in interlaboratory comparisons in which an artefact is measured by a number of laboratories and their measurement results compared. Since the introduction of the Mutual Recognition Arrangement, key comparisons are being undertaken to determine the degree of equivalence of laboratories for particular measurement tasks. In this paper, we discuss the possible development of the Guide to reflect Bayesian approaches and the evaluation of key comparison data using Bayesian estimation methods

  20. Improving Bayesian credibility intervals for classifier error rates using maximum entropy empirical priors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafsson, Mats G; Wallman, Mikael; Wickenberg Bolin, Ulrika; Göransson, Hanna; Fryknäs, M; Andersson, Claes R; Isaksson, Anders

    2010-06-01

    Successful use of classifiers that learn to make decisions from a set of patient examples require robust methods for performance estimation. Recently many promising approaches for determination of an upper bound for the error rate of a single classifier have been reported but the Bayesian credibility interval (CI) obtained from a conventional holdout test still delivers one of the tightest bounds. The conventional Bayesian CI becomes unacceptably large in real world applications where the test set sizes are less than a few hundred. The source of this problem is that fact that the CI is determined exclusively by the result on the test examples. In other words, there is no information at all provided by the uniform prior density distribution employed which reflects complete lack of prior knowledge about the unknown error rate. Therefore, the aim of the study reported here was to study a maximum entropy (ME) based approach to improved prior knowledge and Bayesian CIs, demonstrating its relevance for biomedical research and clinical practice. It is demonstrated how a refined non-uniform prior density distribution can be obtained by means of the ME principle using empirical results from a few designs and tests using non-overlapping sets of examples. Experimental results show that ME based priors improve the CIs when employed to four quite different simulated and two real world data sets. An empirically derived ME prior seems promising for improving the Bayesian CI for the unknown error rate of a designed classifier. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Application of Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filter in parameter calibration of groundwater flow model in PingTung Plain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Shao-Yong; Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung

    2017-04-01

    Due to the limited hydrogeological observation data and high levels of uncertainty within, parameter estimation of the groundwater model has been an important issue. There are many methods of parameter estimation, for example, Kalman filter provides a real-time calibration of parameters through measurement of groundwater monitoring wells, related methods such as Extended Kalman Filter and Ensemble Kalman Filter are widely applied in groundwater research. However, Kalman Filter method is limited to linearity. This study propose a novel method, Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filtering, which provides a method that can considers the uncertainty of data in parameter estimation. With this two methods, we can estimate parameter by given hard data (certain) and soft data (uncertain) in the same time. In this study, we use Python and QGIS in groundwater model (MODFLOW) and development of Extended Kalman Filter and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Filtering in Python in parameter estimation. This method may provide a conventional filtering method and also consider the uncertainty of data. This study was conducted through numerical model experiment to explore, combine Bayesian maximum entropy filter and a hypothesis for the architecture of MODFLOW groundwater model numerical estimation. Through the virtual observation wells to simulate and observe the groundwater model periodically. The result showed that considering the uncertainty of data, the Bayesian maximum entropy filter will provide an ideal result of real-time parameters estimation.

  2. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  3. Bayesian, maximum parsimony and UPGMA models for inferring the phylogenies of antelopes using mitochondrial markers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Haseeb A; Arif, Ibrahim A; Bahkali, Ali H; Al Farhan, Ahmad H; Al Homaidan, Ali A

    2008-10-06

    This investigation was aimed to compare the inference of antelope phylogenies resulting from the 16S rRNA, cytochrome-b (cyt-b) and d-loop segments of mitochondrial DNA using three different computational models including Bayesian (BA), maximum parsimony (MP) and unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean (UPGMA). The respective nucleotide sequences of three Oryx species (Oryx leucoryx, Oryx dammah and Oryx gazella) and an out-group (Addax nasomaculatus) were aligned and subjected to BA, MP and UPGMA models for comparing the topologies of respective phylogenetic trees. The 16S rRNA region possessed the highest frequency of conserved sequences (97.65%) followed by cyt-b (94.22%) and d-loop (87.29%). There were few transitions (2.35%) and none transversions in 16S rRNA as compared to cyt-b (5.61% transitions and 0.17% transversions) and d-loop (11.57% transitions and 1.14% transversions) while comparing the four taxa. All the three mitochondrial segments clearly differentiated the genus Addax from Oryx using the BA or UPGMA models. The topologies of all the gamma-corrected Bayesian trees were identical irrespective of the marker type. The UPGMA trees resulting from 16S rRNA and d-loop sequences were also identical (Oryx dammah grouped with Oryx leucoryx) to Bayesian trees except that the UPGMA tree based on cyt-b showed a slightly different phylogeny (Oryx dammah grouped with Oryx gazella) with a low bootstrap support. However, the MP model failed to differentiate the genus Addax from Oryx. These findings demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of BA and UPGMA methods for phylogenetic analysis of antelopes using mitochondrial markers.

  4. Analysis of neutron reflectivity data: maximum entropy, Bayesian spectral analysis and speckle holography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sivia, D.S.; Hamilton, W.A.; Smith, G.S.

    1991-01-01

    The analysis of neutron reflectivity data to obtain nuclear scattering length density profiles is akin to the notorious phaseless Fourier problem, well known in many fields such as crystallography. Current methods of analysis culminate in the refinement of a few parameters of a functional model, and are often preceded by a long and laborious process of trial and error. We start by discussing the use of maximum entropy for obtained 'free-form' solutions of the density profile, as an alternative to the trial and error phase when a functional model is not available. Next we consider a Bayesian spectral analysis approach, which is appropriate for optimising the parameters of a simple (but adequate) type of model when the number of parameters is not known. Finally, we suggest a novel experimental procedure, the analogue of astronomical speckle holography, designed to alleviate the ambiguity problems inherent in traditional reflectivity measurements. (orig.)

  5. Bayesian Maximum Entropy Based Algorithm for Digital X-ray Mammogram Processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu Mutihac

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Basics of Bayesian statistics in inverse problems using the maximum entropy principle are summarized in connection with the restoration of positive, additive images from various types of data like X-ray digital mammograms. An efficient iterative algorithm for image restoration from large data sets based on the conjugate gradient method and Lagrange multipliers in nonlinear optimization of a specific potential function was developed. The point spread function of the imaging system was determined by numerical simulations of inhomogeneous breast-like tissue with microcalcification inclusions of various opacities. The processed digital and digitized mammograms resulted superior in comparison with their raw counterparts in terms of contrast, resolution, noise, and visibility of details.

  6. Bayesian Maximum Entropy prediction of soil categories using a traditional soil map as soft information.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brus, D.J.; Bogaert, P.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian Maximum Entropy was used to estimate the probabilities of occurrence of soil categories in the Netherlands, and to simulate realizations from the associated multi-point pdf. Besides the hard observations (H) of the categories at 8369 locations, the soil map of the Netherlands 1:50 000 was

  7. Bayesian Methods for Radiation Detection and Dosimetry

    CERN Document Server

    Groer, Peter G

    2002-01-01

    We performed work in three areas: radiation detection, external and internal radiation dosimetry. In radiation detection we developed Bayesian techniques to estimate the net activity of high and low activity radioactive samples. These techniques have the advantage that the remaining uncertainty about the net activity is described by probability densities. Graphs of the densities show the uncertainty in pictorial form. Figure 1 below demonstrates this point. We applied stochastic processes for a method to obtain Bayesian estimates of 222Rn-daughter products from observed counting rates. In external radiation dosimetry we studied and developed Bayesian methods to estimate radiation doses to an individual with radiation induced chromosome aberrations. We analyzed chromosome aberrations after exposure to gammas and neutrons and developed a method for dose-estimation after criticality accidents. The research in internal radiation dosimetry focused on parameter estimation for compartmental models from observed comp...

  8. Bayesian Inference Methods for Sparse Channel Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand

    2013-01-01

    This thesis deals with sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) with application to radio channel estimation. As opposed to the classical approach for sparse signal representation, we focus on the problem of inferring complex signals. Our investigations within SBL constitute the basis for the development...... of Bayesian inference algorithms for sparse channel estimation. Sparse inference methods aim at finding the sparse representation of a signal given in some overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors. Within this context, one of our main contributions to the field of SBL is a hierarchical representation...... analysis of the complex prior representation, where we show that the ability to induce sparse estimates of a given prior heavily depends on the inference method used and, interestingly, whether real or complex variables are inferred. We also show that the Bayesian estimators derived from the proposed...

  9. Bayesian hierarchical models for regional climate reconstructions of the last glacial maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weitzel, Nils; Hense, Andreas; Ohlwein, Christian

    2017-04-01

    Spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate are important for the understanding of the long term behavior of the climate system and the sensitivity to forcing changes. Unfortunately, they are subject to large uncertainties, have to deal with a complex proxy-climate structure, and a physically reasonable interpolation between the sparse proxy observations is difficult. Bayesian Hierarchical Models (BHMs) are a class of statistical models that is well suited for spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate because they permit the inclusion of multiple sources of information (e.g. records from different proxy types, uncertain age information, output from climate simulations) and quantify uncertainties in a statistically rigorous way. BHMs in paleoclimatology typically consist of three stages which are modeled individually and are combined using Bayesian inference techniques. The data stage models the proxy-climate relation (often named transfer function), the process stage models the spatio-temporal distribution of the climate variables of interest, and the prior stage consists of prior distributions of the model parameters. For our BHMs, we translate well-known proxy-climate transfer functions for pollen to a Bayesian framework. In addition, we can include Gaussian distributed local climate information from preprocessed proxy records. The process stage combines physically reasonable spatial structures from prior distributions with proxy records which leads to a multivariate posterior probability distribution for the reconstructed climate variables. The prior distributions that constrain the possible spatial structure of the climate variables are calculated from climate simulation output. We present results from pseudoproxy tests as well as new regional reconstructions of temperatures for the last glacial maximum (LGM, ˜ 21,000 years BP). These reconstructions combine proxy data syntheses with information from climate simulations for the LGM that were

  10. Identification of Watershed-scale Critical Source Areas Using Bayesian Maximum Entropy Spatiotemporal Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roostaee, M.; Deng, Z.

    2017-12-01

    The states' environmental agencies are required by The Clean Water Act to assess all waterbodies and evaluate potential sources of impairments. Spatial and temporal distributions of water quality parameters are critical in identifying Critical Source Areas (CSAs). However, due to limitations in monetary resources and a large number of waterbodies, available monitoring stations are typically sparse with intermittent periods of data collection. Hence, scarcity of water quality data is a major obstacle in addressing sources of pollution through management strategies. In this study spatiotemporal Bayesian Maximum Entropy method (BME) is employed to model the inherent temporal and spatial variability of measured water quality indicators such as Dissolved Oxygen (DO) concentration for Turkey Creek Watershed. Turkey Creek is located in northern Louisiana and has been listed in 303(d) list for DO impairment since 2014 in Louisiana Water Quality Inventory Reports due to agricultural practices. BME method is proved to provide more accurate estimates than the methods of purely spatial analysis by incorporating space/time distribution and uncertainty in available measured soft and hard data. This model would be used to estimate DO concentration at unmonitored locations and times and subsequently identifying CSAs. The USDA's crop-specific land cover data layers of the watershed were then used to determine those practices/changes that led to low DO concentration in identified CSAs. Primary results revealed that cultivation of corn and soybean as well as urban runoff are main contributing sources in low dissolved oxygen in Turkey Creek Watershed.

  11. A Bayesian maximum entropy-based methodology for optimal spatiotemporal design of groundwater monitoring networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Marjan; Kerachian, Reza

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents a new methodology for analyzing the spatiotemporal variability of water table levels and redesigning a groundwater level monitoring network (GLMN) using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) technique and a multi-criteria decision-making approach based on ordered weighted averaging (OWA). The spatial sampling is determined using a hexagonal gridding pattern and a new method, which is proposed to assign a removal priority number to each pre-existing station. To design temporal sampling, a new approach is also applied to consider uncertainty caused by lack of information. In this approach, different time lag values are tested by regarding another source of information, which is simulation result of a numerical groundwater flow model. Furthermore, to incorporate the existing uncertainties in available monitoring data, the flexibility of the BME interpolation technique is taken into account in applying soft data and improving the accuracy of the calculations. To examine the methodology, it is applied to the Dehgolan plain in northwestern Iran. Based on the results, a configuration of 33 monitoring stations for a regular hexagonal grid of side length 3600 m is proposed, in which the time lag between samples is equal to 5 weeks. Since the variance estimation errors of the BME method are almost identical for redesigned and existing networks, the redesigned monitoring network is more cost-effective and efficient than the existing monitoring network with 52 stations and monthly sampling frequency.

  12. Bayesian modeling of the assimilative capacity component of nutrient total maximum daily loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faulkner, B. R.

    2008-08-01

    Implementing stream restoration techniques and best management practices to reduce nonpoint source nutrients implies enhancement of the assimilative capacity for the stream system. In this paper, a Bayesian method for evaluating this component of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) load capacity is developed and applied. The joint distribution of nutrient retention metrics from a literature review of 495 measurements was used for Monte Carlo sampling with a process transfer function for nutrient attenuation. Using the resulting histograms of nutrient retention, reference prior distributions were developed for sites in which some of the metrics contributing to the transfer function were measured. Contributing metrics for the prior include stream discharge, cross-sectional area, fraction of storage volume to free stream volume, denitrification rate constant, storage zone mass transfer rate, dispersion coefficient, and others. Confidence of compliance (CC) that any given level of nutrient retention has been achieved is also determined using this approach. The shape of the CC curve is dependent on the metrics measured and serves in part as a measure of the information provided by the metrics to predict nutrient retention. It is also a direct measurement, with a margin of safety, of the fraction of export load that can be reduced through changing retention metrics. For an impaired stream in western Oklahoma, a combination of prior information and measurement of nutrient attenuation was used to illustrate the proposed approach. This method may be considered for TMDL implementation.

  13. Quantile-based Bayesian maximum entropy approach for spatiotemporal modeling of ambient air quality levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hwa-Lung; Wang, Chih-Hsin

    2013-02-05

    Understanding the daily changes in ambient air quality concentrations is important to the assessing human exposure and environmental health. However, the fine temporal scales (e.g., hourly) involved in this assessment often lead to high variability in air quality concentrations. This is because of the complex short-term physical and chemical mechanisms among the pollutants. Consequently, high heterogeneity is usually present in not only the averaged pollution levels, but also the intraday variance levels of the daily observations of ambient concentration across space and time. This characteristic decreases the estimation performance of common techniques. This study proposes a novel quantile-based Bayesian maximum entropy (QBME) method to account for the nonstationary and nonhomogeneous characteristics of ambient air pollution dynamics. The QBME method characterizes the spatiotemporal dependence among the ambient air quality levels based on their location-specific quantiles and accounts for spatiotemporal variations using a local weighted smoothing technique. The epistemic framework of the QBME method can allow researchers to further consider the uncertainty of space-time observations. This study presents the spatiotemporal modeling of daily CO and PM10 concentrations across Taiwan from 1998 to 2009 using the QBME method. Results show that the QBME method can effectively improve estimation accuracy in terms of lower mean absolute errors and standard deviations over space and time, especially for pollutants with strong nonhomogeneous variances across space. In addition, the epistemic framework can allow researchers to assimilate the site-specific secondary information where the observations are absent because of the common preferential sampling issues of environmental data. The proposed QBME method provides a practical and powerful framework for the spatiotemporal modeling of ambient pollutants.

  14. Bayesian Maximum Entropy space/time estimation of surface water chloride in Maryland using river distances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jat, Prahlad; Serre, Marc L

    2016-12-01

    Widespread contamination of surface water chloride is an emerging environmental concern. Consequently accurate and cost-effective methods are needed to estimate chloride along all river miles of potentially contaminated watersheds. Here we introduce a Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) space/time geostatistical estimation framework that uses river distances, and we compare it with Euclidean BME to estimate surface water chloride from 2005 to 2014 in the Gunpowder-Patapsco, Severn, and Patuxent subbasins in Maryland. River BME improves the cross-validation R 2 by 23.67% over Euclidean BME, and river BME maps are significantly different than Euclidean BME maps, indicating that it is important to use river BME maps to assess water quality impairment. The river BME maps of chloride concentration show wide contamination throughout Baltimore and Columbia-Ellicott cities, the disappearance of a clean buffer separating these two large urban areas, and the emergence of multiple localized pockets of contamination in surrounding areas. The number of impaired river miles increased by 0.55% per year in 2005-2009 and by 1.23% per year in 2011-2014, corresponding to a marked acceleration of the rate of impairment. Our results support the need for control measures and increased monitoring of unassessed river miles. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  15. An automated land-use mapping comparison of the Bayesian maximum likelihood and linear discriminant analysis algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tom, C. H.; Miller, L. D.

    1984-01-01

    The Bayesian maximum likelihood parametric classifier has been tested against the data-based formulation designated 'linear discrimination analysis', using the 'GLIKE' decision and "CLASSIFY' classification algorithms in the Landsat Mapping System. Identical supervised training sets, USGS land use/land cover classes, and various combinations of Landsat image and ancilliary geodata variables, were used to compare the algorithms' thematic mapping accuracy on a single-date summer subscene, with a cellularized USGS land use map of the same time frame furnishing the ground truth reference. CLASSIFY, which accepts a priori class probabilities, is found to be more accurate than GLIKE, which assumes equal class occurrences, for all three mapping variable sets and both levels of detail. These results may be generalized to direct accuracy, time, cost, and flexibility advantages of linear discriminant analysis over Bayesian methods.

  16. Maximum a posteriori probability estimates in infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helin, T; Burger, M

    2015-01-01

    A demanding challenge in Bayesian inversion is to efficiently characterize the posterior distribution. This task is problematic especially in high-dimensional non-Gaussian problems, where the structure of the posterior can be very chaotic and difficult to analyse. Current inverse problem literature often approaches the problem by considering suitable point estimators for the task. Typically the choice is made between the maximum a posteriori (MAP) or the conditional mean (CM) estimate. The benefits of either choice are not well-understood from the perspective of infinite-dimensional theory. Most importantly, there exists no general scheme regarding how to connect the topological description of a MAP estimate to a variational problem. The recent results by Dashti and others (Dashti et al 2013 Inverse Problems 29 095017) resolve this issue for nonlinear inverse problems in Gaussian framework. In this work we improve the current understanding by introducing a novel concept called the weak MAP (wMAP) estimate. We show that any MAP estimate in the sense of Dashti et al (2013 Inverse Problems 29 095017) is a wMAP estimate and, moreover, how the wMAP estimate connects to a variational formulation in general infinite-dimensional non-Gaussian problems. The variational formulation enables to study many properties of the infinite-dimensional MAP estimate that were earlier impossible to study. In a recent work by the authors (Burger and Lucka 2014 Maximum a posteriori estimates in linear inverse problems with logconcave priors are proper bayes estimators preprint) the MAP estimator was studied in the context of the Bayes cost method. Using Bregman distances, proper convex Bayes cost functions were introduced for which the MAP estimator is the Bayes estimator. Here, we generalize these results to the infinite-dimensional setting. Moreover, we discuss the implications of our results for some examples of prior models such as the Besov prior and hierarchical prior. (paper)

  17. Deep Learning and Bayesian Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Prosper Harrison B.

    2017-01-01

    A revolution is underway in which deep neural networks are routinely used to solve diffcult problems such as face recognition and natural language understanding. Particle physicists have taken notice and have started to deploy these methods, achieving results that suggest a potentially significant shift in how data might be analyzed in the not too distant future. We discuss a few recent developments in the application of deep neural networks and then indulge in speculation about how such meth...

  18. Essays on portfolio choice with Bayesian methods

    OpenAIRE

    Kebabci, Deniz

    2007-01-01

    How investors should allocate assets to their portfolios in the presence of predictable components in asset returns is a question of great importance in finance. While early studies took the return generating process as given, recent studies have addressed issues such as parameter estimation and model uncertainty. My dissertation develops Bayesian methods for portfolio choice - and industry allocation in particular - under parameter and model uncertainty. The first chapter of my dissertation,...

  19. Targeted search for continuous gravitational waves: Bayesian versus maximum-likelihood statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prix, Reinhard; Krishnan, Badri

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the Bayesian framework for detection of continuous gravitational waves (GWs) in the context of targeted searches, where the phase evolution of the GW signal is assumed to be known, while the four amplitude parameters are unknown. We show that the orthodox maximum-likelihood statistic (known as F-statistic) can be rediscovered as a Bayes factor with an unphysical prior in amplitude parameter space. We introduce an alternative detection statistic ('B-statistic') using the Bayes factor with a more natural amplitude prior, namely an isotropic probability distribution for the orientation of GW sources. Monte Carlo simulations of targeted searches show that the resulting Bayesian B-statistic is more powerful in the Neyman-Pearson sense (i.e., has a higher expected detection probability at equal false-alarm probability) than the frequentist F-statistic.

  20. Bayesian Methods for Radiation Detection and Dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peter G. Groer

    2002-01-01

    We performed work in three areas: radiation detection, external and internal radiation dosimetry. In radiation detection we developed Bayesian techniques to estimate the net activity of high and low activity radioactive samples. These techniques have the advantage that the remaining uncertainty about the net activity is described by probability densities. Graphs of the densities show the uncertainty in pictorial form. Figure 1 below demonstrates this point. We applied stochastic processes for a method to obtain Bayesian estimates of 222Rn-daughter products from observed counting rates. In external radiation dosimetry we studied and developed Bayesian methods to estimate radiation doses to an individual with radiation induced chromosome aberrations. We analyzed chromosome aberrations after exposure to gammas and neutrons and developed a method for dose-estimation after criticality accidents. The research in internal radiation dosimetry focused on parameter estimation for compartmental models from observed compartmental activities. From the estimated probability densities of the model parameters we were able to derive the densities for compartmental activities for a two compartment catenary model at different times. We also calculated the average activities and their standard deviation for a simple two compartment model

  1. Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom

    2013-02-01

    Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.

  2. Bayesian Monte Carlo and Maximum Likelihood Approach for Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management: Application to Lake Oxygen Recovery Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model uncertainty estimation and risk assessment is essential to environmental management and informed decision making on pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we apply a probabilistic methodology, which combines Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and Maximum Likelihood e...

  3. An Adaptively Accelerated Bayesian Deblurring Method with Entropy Prior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong-Hoon Kim

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available The development of an efficient adaptively accelerated iterative deblurring algorithm based on Bayesian statistical concept has been reported. Entropy of an image has been used as a “prior” distribution and instead of additive form, used in conventional acceleration methods an exponent form of relaxation constant has been used for acceleration. Thus the proposed method is called hereafter as adaptively accelerated maximum a posteriori with entropy prior (AAMAPE. Based on empirical observations in different experiments, the exponent is computed adaptively using first-order derivatives of the deblurred image from previous two iterations. This exponent improves speed of the AAMAPE method in early stages and ensures stability at later stages of iteration. In AAMAPE method, we also consider the constraint of the nonnegativity and flux conservation. The paper discusses the fundamental idea of the Bayesian image deblurring with the use of entropy as prior, and the analytical analysis of superresolution and the noise amplification characteristics of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the proposed AAMAPE method gives lower RMSE and higher SNR in 44% lesser iterations as compared to nonaccelerated maximum a posteriori with entropy prior (MAPE method. Moreover, AAMAPE followed by wavelet wiener filtering gives better result than the state-of-the-art methods.

  4. Internal Dosimetry Intake Estimation using Bayesian Methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, G.; Inkret, W.C.; Martz, H.F.

    1999-01-01

    New methods for the inverse problem of internal dosimetry are proposed based on evaluating expectations of the Bayesian posterior probability distribution of intake amounts, given bioassay measurements. These expectation integrals are normally of very high dimension and hence impractical to use. However, the expectations can be algebraically transformed into a sum of terms representing different numbers of intakes, with a Poisson distribution of the number of intakes. This sum often rapidly converges, when the average number of intakes for a population is small. A simplified algorithm using data unfolding is described (UF code). (author)

  5. Bayesian non- and semi-parametric methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rossi, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book reviews and develops Bayesian non-parametric and semi-parametric methods for applications in microeconometrics and quantitative marketing. Most econometric models used in microeconomics and marketing applications involve arbitrary distributional assumptions. As more data becomes available, a natural desire to provide methods that relax these assumptions arises. Peter Rossi advocates a Bayesian approach in which specific distributional assumptions are replaced with more flexible distributions based on mixtures of normals. The Bayesian approach can use either a large but fixed number

  6. A Bayesian method for detecting stellar flares

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitkin, M.; Williams, D.; Fletcher, L.; Grant, S. D. T.

    2014-12-01

    We present a Bayesian-odds-ratio-based algorithm for detecting stellar flares in light-curve data. We assume flares are described by a model in which there is a rapid rise with a half-Gaussian profile, followed by an exponential decay. Our signal model also contains a polynomial background model required to fit underlying light-curve variations in the data, which could otherwise partially mimic a flare. We characterize the false alarm probability and efficiency of this method under the assumption that any unmodelled noise in the data is Gaussian, and compare it with a simpler thresholding method based on that used in Walkowicz et al. We find our method has a significant increase in detection efficiency for low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) flares. For a conservative false alarm probability our method can detect 95 per cent of flares with S/N less than 20, as compared to S/N of 25 for the simpler method. We also test how well the assumption of Gaussian noise holds by applying the method to a selection of `quiet' Kepler stars. As an example we have applied our method to a selection of stars in Kepler Quarter 1 data. The method finds 687 flaring stars with a total of 1873 flares after vetos have been applied. For these flares we have made preliminary characterizations of their durations and and S/N.

  7. Numerical Methods for Bayesian Inverse Problems

    KAUST Repository

    Ernst, Oliver

    2014-01-06

    We present recent results on Bayesian inversion for a groundwater flow problem with an uncertain conductivity field. In particular, we show how direct and indirect measurements can be used to obtain a stochastic model for the unknown. The main tool here is Bayes’ theorem which merges the indirect data with the stochastic prior model for the conductivity field obtained by the direct measurements. Further, we demonstrate how the resulting posterior distribution of the quantity of interest, in this case travel times of radionuclide contaminants, can be obtained by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Moreover, we investigate new, promising MCMC methods which exploit geometrical features of the posterior and which are suited to infinite dimensions.

  8. Numerical Methods for Bayesian Inverse Problems

    KAUST Repository

    Ernst, Oliver; Sprungk, Bjorn; Cliffe, K. Andrew; Starkloff, Hans-Jorg

    2014-01-01

    We present recent results on Bayesian inversion for a groundwater flow problem with an uncertain conductivity field. In particular, we show how direct and indirect measurements can be used to obtain a stochastic model for the unknown. The main tool here is Bayes’ theorem which merges the indirect data with the stochastic prior model for the conductivity field obtained by the direct measurements. Further, we demonstrate how the resulting posterior distribution of the quantity of interest, in this case travel times of radionuclide contaminants, can be obtained by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Moreover, we investigate new, promising MCMC methods which exploit geometrical features of the posterior and which are suited to infinite dimensions.

  9. Sparse Event Modeling with Hierarchical Bayesian Kernel Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-05

    SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: The research objective of this proposal was to develop a predictive Bayesian kernel approach to model count data based on...several predictive variables. Such an approach, which we refer to as the Poisson Bayesian kernel model, is able to model the rate of occurrence of... kernel methods made use of: (i) the Bayesian property of improving predictive accuracy as data are dynamically obtained, and (ii) the kernel function

  10. The maximum-entropy method in superspace

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    van Smaalen, S.; Palatinus, Lukáš; Schneider, M.

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 59, - (2003), s. 459-469 ISSN 0108-7673 Grant - others:DFG(DE) XX Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1010914 Keywords : maximum-entropy method, * aperiodic crystals * electron density Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 1.558, year: 2003

  11. Bayesian adaptive methods for clinical trials

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berry, Scott M

    2011-01-01

    .... One is that Bayesian approaches implemented with the majority of their informative content coming from the current data, and not any external prior informa- tion, typically have good frequentist properties (e.g...

  12. A Bayesian Method for Weighted Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Lo, Albert Y.

    1993-01-01

    Bayesian statistical inference for sampling from weighted distribution models is studied. Small-sample Bayesian bootstrap clone (BBC) approximations to the posterior distribution are discussed. A second-order property for the BBC in unweighted i.i.d. sampling is given. A consequence is that BBC approximations to a posterior distribution of the mean and to the sampling distribution of the sample average, can be made asymptotically accurate by a proper choice of the random variables that genera...

  13. Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, Robert

    2016-01-01

    During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

  14. Approximation methods for efficient learning of Bayesian networks

    CERN Document Server

    Riggelsen, C

    2008-01-01

    This publication offers and investigates efficient Monte Carlo simulation methods in order to realize a Bayesian approach to approximate learning of Bayesian networks from both complete and incomplete data. For large amounts of incomplete data when Monte Carlo methods are inefficient, approximations are implemented, such that learning remains feasible, albeit non-Bayesian. The topics discussed are: basic concepts about probabilities, graph theory and conditional independence; Bayesian network learning from data; Monte Carlo simulation techniques; and, the concept of incomplete data. In order to provide a coherent treatment of matters, thereby helping the reader to gain a thorough understanding of the whole concept of learning Bayesian networks from (in)complete data, this publication combines in a clarifying way all the issues presented in the papers with previously unpublished work.

  15. Maximum entropy method in momentum density reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobrzynski, L.; Holas, A.

    1997-01-01

    The Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) is applied to the reconstruction of the 3-dimensional electron momentum density distributions observed through the set of Compton profiles measured along various crystallographic directions. It is shown that the reconstruction of electron momentum density may be reliably carried out with the aid of simple iterative algorithm suggested originally by Collins. A number of distributions has been simulated in order to check the performance of MEM. It is shown that MEM can be recommended as a model-free approach. (author). 13 refs, 1 fig

  16. Unification of field theory and maximum entropy methods for learning probability densities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinney, Justin B.

    2015-09-01

    The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such approaches. Both have origins in statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I unify these two methods by showing that every maximum entropy density estimate can be recovered in the infinite smoothness limit of an appropriate Bayesian field theory. I also show that Bayesian field theory estimation can be performed without imposing any boundary conditions on candidate densities, and that the infinite smoothness limit of these theories recovers the most common types of maximum entropy estimates. Bayesian field theory thus provides a natural test of the maximum entropy null hypothesis and, furthermore, returns an alternative (lower entropy) density estimate when the maximum entropy hypothesis is falsified. The computations necessary for this approach can be performed rapidly for one-dimensional data, and software for doing this is provided.

  17. Unification of field theory and maximum entropy methods for learning probability densities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinney, Justin B

    2015-09-01

    The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such approaches. Both have origins in statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I unify these two methods by showing that every maximum entropy density estimate can be recovered in the infinite smoothness limit of an appropriate Bayesian field theory. I also show that Bayesian field theory estimation can be performed without imposing any boundary conditions on candidate densities, and that the infinite smoothness limit of these theories recovers the most common types of maximum entropy estimates. Bayesian field theory thus provides a natural test of the maximum entropy null hypothesis and, furthermore, returns an alternative (lower entropy) density estimate when the maximum entropy hypothesis is falsified. The computations necessary for this approach can be performed rapidly for one-dimensional data, and software for doing this is provided.

  18. Radiation Source Mapping with Bayesian Inverse Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hykes, Joshua Michael

    We present a method to map the spectral and spatial distributions of radioactive sources using a small number of detectors. Locating and identifying radioactive materials is important for border monitoring, accounting for special nuclear material in processing facilities, and in clean-up operations. Most methods to analyze these problems make restrictive assumptions about the distribution of the source. In contrast, the source-mapping method presented here allows an arbitrary three-dimensional distribution in space and a flexible group and gamma peak distribution in energy. To apply the method, the system's geometry and materials must be known. A probabilistic Bayesian approach is used to solve the resulting inverse problem (IP) since the system of equations is ill-posed. The probabilistic approach also provides estimates of the confidence in the final source map prediction. A set of adjoint flux, discrete ordinates solutions, obtained in this work by the Denovo code, are required to efficiently compute detector responses from a candidate source distribution. These adjoint fluxes are then used to form the linear model to map the state space to the response space. The test for the method is simultaneously locating a set of 137Cs and 60Co gamma sources in an empty room. This test problem is solved using synthetic measurements generated by a Monte Carlo (MCNP) model and using experimental measurements that we collected for this purpose. With the synthetic data, the predicted source distributions identified the locations of the sources to within tens of centimeters, in a room with an approximately four-by-four meter floor plan. Most of the predicted source intensities were within a factor of ten of their true value. The chi-square value of the predicted source was within a factor of five from the expected value based on the number of measurements employed. With a favorable uniform initial guess, the predicted source map was nearly identical to the true distribution

  19. Unification of field theory and maximum entropy methods for learning probability densities

    OpenAIRE

    Kinney, Justin B.

    2014-01-01

    The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such approaches. Both have origins in statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I unify these two methods by showing that every maximum entropy de...

  20. Using Tranformation Group Priors and Maximum Relative Entropy for Bayesian Glaciological Inversions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthern, R. J.; Hindmarsh, R. C. A.; Williams, C. R.

    2014-12-01

    One of the key advances that has allowed better simulations of the large ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica has been the use of inverse methods. These have allowed poorly known parameters such as the basal drag coefficient and ice viscosity to be constrained using a wide variety of satellite observations. Inverse methods used by glaciologists have broadly followed one of two related approaches. The first is minimization of a cost function that describes the misfit to the observations, often accompanied by some kind of explicit or implicit regularization that promotes smallness or smoothness in the inverted parameters. The second approach is a probabilistic framework that makes use of Bayes' theorem to update prior assumptions about the probability of parameters, making use of data with known error estimates. Both approaches have much in common and questions of regularization often map onto implicit choices of prior probabilities that are made explicit in the Bayesian framework. In both approaches questions can arise that seem to demand subjective input. What should the functional form of the cost function be if there are alternatives? What kind of regularization should be applied, and how much? How should the prior probability distribution for a parameter such as basal slipperiness be specified when we know so little about the details of the subglacial environment? Here we consider some approaches that have been used to address these questions and discuss ways that probabilistic prior information used for regularizing glaciological inversions might be specified with greater objectivity.

  1. Precipitation Interpolation by Multivariate Bayesian Maximum Entropy Based on Meteorological Data in Yun- Gui-Guang region, Mainland China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chaolin; Zhong, Shaobo; Zhang, Fushen; Huang, Quanyi

    2016-11-01

    Precipitation interpolation has been a hot area of research for many years. It had close relation to meteorological factors. In this paper, precipitation from 91 meteorological stations located in and around Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi Zhuang provinces (or autonomous region), Mainland China was taken into consideration for spatial interpolation. Multivariate Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method with auxiliary variables, including mean relative humidity, water vapour pressure, mean temperature, mean wind speed and terrain elevation, was used to get more accurate regional distribution of annual precipitation. The means, standard deviations, skewness and kurtosis of meteorological factors were calculated. Variogram and cross- variogram were fitted between precipitation and auxiliary variables. The results showed that the multivariate BME method was precise with hard and soft data, probability density function. Annual mean precipitation was positively correlated with mean relative humidity, mean water vapour pressure, mean temperature and mean wind speed, negatively correlated with terrain elevation. The results are supposed to provide substantial reference for research of drought and waterlog in the region.

  2. Spectral density analysis of time correlation functions in lattice QCD using the maximum entropy method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiebig, H. Rudolf

    2002-01-01

    We study various aspects of extracting spectral information from time correlation functions of lattice QCD by means of Bayesian inference with an entropic prior, the maximum entropy method (MEM). Correlator functions of a heavy-light meson-meson system serve as a repository for lattice data with diverse statistical quality. Attention is given to spectral mass density functions, inferred from the data, and their dependence on the parameters of the MEM. We propose to employ simulated annealing, or cooling, to solve the Bayesian inference problem, and discuss the practical issues of the approach

  3. Maximum a posteriori Bayesian estimation of mycophenolic Acid area under the concentration-time curve: is this clinically useful for dosage prediction yet?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staatz, Christine E; Tett, Susan E

    2011-12-01

    This review seeks to summarize the available data about Bayesian estimation of area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) and dosage prediction for mycophenolic acid (MPA) and evaluate whether sufficient evidence is available for routine use of Bayesian dosage prediction in clinical practice. A literature search identified 14 studies that assessed the predictive performance of maximum a posteriori Bayesian estimation of MPA AUC and one report that retrospectively evaluated how closely dosage recommendations based on Bayesian forecasting achieved targeted MPA exposure. Studies to date have mostly been undertaken in renal transplant recipients, with limited investigation in patients treated with MPA for autoimmune disease or haematopoietic stem cell transplantation. All of these studies have involved use of the mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) formulation of MPA, rather than the enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium (EC-MPS) formulation. Bias associated with estimation of MPA AUC using Bayesian forecasting was generally less than 10%. However some difficulties with imprecision was evident, with values ranging from 4% to 34% (based on estimation involving two or more concentration measurements). Evaluation of whether MPA dosing decisions based on Bayesian forecasting (by the free website service https://pharmaco.chu-limoges.fr) achieved target drug exposure has only been undertaken once. When MMF dosage recommendations were applied by clinicians, a higher proportion (72-80%) of subsequent estimated MPA AUC values were within the 30-60 mg · h/L target range, compared with when dosage recommendations were not followed (only 39-57% within target range). Such findings provide evidence that Bayesian dosage prediction is clinically useful for achieving target MPA AUC. This study, however, was retrospective and focussed only on adult renal transplant recipients. Furthermore, in this study, Bayesian-generated AUC estimations and dosage predictions were not compared

  4. The bootstrap and Bayesian bootstrap method in assessing bioequivalence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan Jianping; Zhang Kongsheng; Chen Hui

    2009-01-01

    Parametric method for assessing individual bioequivalence (IBE) may concentrate on the hypothesis that the PK responses are normal. Nonparametric method for evaluating IBE would be bootstrap method. In 2001, the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) proposed a draft guidance. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the IBE between test drug and reference drug by bootstrap and Bayesian bootstrap method. We study the power of bootstrap test procedures and the parametric test procedures in FDA (2001). We find that the Bayesian bootstrap method is the most excellent.

  5. Bayesian maximum entropy integration of ozone observations and model predictions: an application for attainment demonstration in North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Nazelle, Audrey; Arunachalam, Saravanan; Serre, Marc L

    2010-08-01

    States in the USA are required to demonstrate future compliance of criteria air pollutant standards by using both air quality monitors and model outputs. In the case of ozone, the demonstration tests aim at relying heavily on measured values, due to their perceived objectivity and enforceable quality. Weight given to numerical models is diminished by integrating them in the calculations only in a relative sense. For unmonitored locations, the EPA has suggested the use of a spatial interpolation technique to assign current values. We demonstrate that this approach may lead to erroneous assignments of nonattainment and may make it difficult for States to establish future compliance. We propose a method that combines different sources of information to map air pollution, using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) Framework. The approach gives precedence to measured values and integrates modeled data as a function of model performance. We demonstrate this approach in North Carolina, using the State's ozone monitoring network in combination with outputs from the Multiscale Air Quality Simulation Platform (MAQSIP) modeling system. We show that the BME data integration approach, compared to a spatial interpolation of measured data, improves the accuracy and the precision of ozone estimations across the state.

  6. Improving Estimations of Spatial Distribution of Soil Respiration Using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy Algorithm and Soil Temperature as Auxiliary Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junguo Hu

    Full Text Available Soil respiration inherently shows strong spatial variability. It is difficult to obtain an accurate characterization of soil respiration with an insufficient number of monitoring points. However, it is expensive and cumbersome to deploy many sensors. To solve this problem, we proposed employing the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME algorithm, using soil temperature as auxiliary information, to study the spatial distribution of soil respiration. The BME algorithm used the soft data (auxiliary information effectively to improve the estimation accuracy of the spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration. Based on the functional relationship between soil temperature and soil respiration, the BME algorithm satisfactorily integrated soil temperature data into said spatial distribution. As a means of comparison, we also applied the Ordinary Kriging (OK and Co-Kriging (Co-OK methods. The results indicated that the root mean squared errors (RMSEs and absolute values of bias for both Day 1 and Day 2 were the lowest for the BME method, thus demonstrating its higher estimation accuracy. Further, we compared the performance of the BME algorithm coupled with auxiliary information, namely soil temperature data, and the OK method without auxiliary information in the same study area for 9, 21, and 37 sampled points. The results showed that the RMSEs for the BME algorithm (0.972 and 1.193 were less than those for the OK method (1.146 and 1.539 when the number of sampled points was 9 and 37, respectively. This indicates that the former method using auxiliary information could reduce the required number of sampling points for studying spatial distribution of soil respiration. Thus, the BME algorithm, coupled with soil temperature data, can not only improve the accuracy of soil respiration spatial interpolation but can also reduce the number of sampling points.

  7. Improving Estimations of Spatial Distribution of Soil Respiration Using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy Algorithm and Soil Temperature as Auxiliary Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Junguo; Zhou, Jian; Zhou, Guomo; Luo, Yiqi; Xu, Xiaojun; Li, Pingheng; Liang, Junyi

    2016-01-01

    Soil respiration inherently shows strong spatial variability. It is difficult to obtain an accurate characterization of soil respiration with an insufficient number of monitoring points. However, it is expensive and cumbersome to deploy many sensors. To solve this problem, we proposed employing the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) algorithm, using soil temperature as auxiliary information, to study the spatial distribution of soil respiration. The BME algorithm used the soft data (auxiliary information) effectively to improve the estimation accuracy of the spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration. Based on the functional relationship between soil temperature and soil respiration, the BME algorithm satisfactorily integrated soil temperature data into said spatial distribution. As a means of comparison, we also applied the Ordinary Kriging (OK) and Co-Kriging (Co-OK) methods. The results indicated that the root mean squared errors (RMSEs) and absolute values of bias for both Day 1 and Day 2 were the lowest for the BME method, thus demonstrating its higher estimation accuracy. Further, we compared the performance of the BME algorithm coupled with auxiliary information, namely soil temperature data, and the OK method without auxiliary information in the same study area for 9, 21, and 37 sampled points. The results showed that the RMSEs for the BME algorithm (0.972 and 1.193) were less than those for the OK method (1.146 and 1.539) when the number of sampled points was 9 and 37, respectively. This indicates that the former method using auxiliary information could reduce the required number of sampling points for studying spatial distribution of soil respiration. Thus, the BME algorithm, coupled with soil temperature data, can not only improve the accuracy of soil respiration spatial interpolation but can also reduce the number of sampling points.

  8. Rationalizing method of replacement intervals by using Bayesian statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasai, Masao; Notoya, Junichi; Kusakari, Yoshiyuki

    2007-01-01

    This study represents the formulations for rationalizing the replacement intervals of equipments and/or parts taking into account the probability density functions (PDF) of the parameters of failure distribution functions (FDF) and compares the optimized intervals by our formulations with those by conventional formulations which uses only representative values of the parameters of FDF instead of using these PDFs. The failure data are generated by Monte Carlo simulations since the real failure data can not be available for us. The PDF of PDF parameters are obtained by Bayesian method and the representative values are obtained by likelihood estimation and Bayesian method. We found that the method using PDF by Bayesian method brings longer replacement intervals than one using the representative of the parameters. (author)

  9. Numerical methods for Bayesian inference in the face of aging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarotti, C.A.; Villain, B.; Procaccia, H.

    1996-01-01

    In recent years, much attention has been paid to Bayesian methods for Risk Assessment. Until now, these methods have been studied from a theoretical point of view. Researchers have been mainly interested in: studying the effectiveness of Bayesian methods in handling rare events; debating about the problem of priors and other philosophical issues. An aspect central to the Bayesian approach is numerical computation because any safety/reliability problem, in a Bayesian frame, ends with a problem of numerical integration. This aspect has been neglected until now because most Risk studies assumed the Exponential model as the basic probabilistic model. The existence of conjugate priors makes numerical integration unnecessary in this case. If aging is to be taken into account, no conjugate family is available and the use of numerical integration becomes compulsory. EDF (National Board of Electricity, of France) and ENEA (National Committee for Energy, New Technologies and Environment, of Italy) jointly carried out a research program aimed at developing quadrature methods suitable for Bayesian Interference with underlying Weibull or gamma distributions. The paper will illustrate the main results achieved during the above research program and will discuss, via some sample cases, the performances of the numerical algorithms which on the appearance of stress corrosion cracking in the tubes of Steam Generators of PWR French power plants. (authors)

  10. Metainference: A Bayesian inference method for heterogeneous systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonomi, Massimiliano; Camilloni, Carlo; Cavalli, Andrea; Vendruscolo, Michele

    2016-01-01

    Modeling a complex system is almost invariably a challenging task. The incorporation of experimental observations can be used to improve the quality of a model and thus to obtain better predictions about the behavior of the corresponding system. This approach, however, is affected by a variety of different errors, especially when a system simultaneously populates an ensemble of different states and experimental data are measured as averages over such states. To address this problem, we present a Bayesian inference method, called "metainference," that is able to deal with errors in experimental measurements and with experimental measurements averaged over multiple states. To achieve this goal, metainference models a finite sample of the distribution of models using a replica approach, in the spirit of the replica-averaging modeling based on the maximum entropy principle. To illustrate the method, we present its application to a heterogeneous model system and to the determination of an ensemble of structures corresponding to the thermal fluctuations of a protein molecule. Metainference thus provides an approach to modeling complex systems with heterogeneous components and interconverting between different states by taking into account all possible sources of errors.

  11. Maximum entropy perception-action space: a Bayesian model of eye movement selection

    OpenAIRE

    Colas , Francis; Bessière , Pierre; Girard , Benoît

    2010-01-01

    International audience; In this article, we investigate the issue of the selection of eye movements in a free-eye Multiple Object Tracking task. We propose a Bayesian model of retinotopic maps with a complex logarithmic mapping. This model is structured in two parts: a representation of the visual scene, and a decision model based on the representation. We compare different decision models based on different features of the representation and we show that taking into account uncertainty helps...

  12. Bayesian methods to estimate urban growth potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jordan W.; Smart, Lindsey S.; Dorning, Monica; Dupéy, Lauren Nicole; Méley, Andréanne; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

    2017-01-01

    Urban growth often influences the production of ecosystem services. The impacts of urbanization on landscapes can subsequently affect landowners’ perceptions, values and decisions regarding their land. Within land-use and land-change research, very few models of dynamic landscape-scale processes like urbanization incorporate empirically-grounded landowner decision-making processes. Very little attention has focused on the heterogeneous decision-making processes that aggregate to influence broader-scale patterns of urbanization. We examine the land-use tradeoffs faced by individual landowners in one of the United States’ most rapidly urbanizing regions − the urban area surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina. We focus on the land-use decisions of non-industrial private forest owners located across the region’s development gradient. A discrete choice experiment is used to determine the critical factors influencing individual forest owners’ intent to sell their undeveloped properties across a series of experimentally varied scenarios of urban growth. Data are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The estimates derived from the survey data are used to modify a spatially-explicit trend-based urban development potential model, derived from remotely-sensed imagery and observed changes in the region’s socioeconomic and infrastructural characteristics between 2000 and 2011. This modeling approach combines the theoretical underpinnings of behavioral economics with spatiotemporal data describing a region’s historical development patterns. By integrating empirical social preference data into spatially-explicit urban growth models, we begin to more realistically capture processes as well as patterns that drive the location, magnitude and rates of urban growth.

  13. A variational Bayesian method to inverse problems with impulsive noise

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Bangti

    2012-01-01

    We propose a novel numerical method for solving inverse problems subject to impulsive noises which possibly contain a large number of outliers. The approach is of Bayesian type, and it exploits a heavy-tailed t distribution for data noise to achieve

  14. Application of Bayesian Methods for Detecting Fraudulent Behavior on Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinharay, Sandip

    2018-01-01

    Producers and consumers of test scores are increasingly concerned about fraudulent behavior before and during the test. There exist several statistical or psychometric methods for detecting fraudulent behavior on tests. This paper provides a review of the Bayesian approaches among them. Four hitherto-unpublished real data examples are provided to…

  15. A label field fusion bayesian model and its penalized maximum rand estimator for image segmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mignotte, Max

    2010-06-01

    This paper presents a novel segmentation approach based on a Markov random field (MRF) fusion model which aims at combining several segmentation results associated with simpler clustering models in order to achieve a more reliable and accurate segmentation result. The proposed fusion model is derived from the recently introduced probabilistic Rand measure for comparing one segmentation result to one or more manual segmentations of the same image. This non-parametric measure allows us to easily derive an appealing fusion model of label fields, easily expressed as a Gibbs distribution, or as a nonstationary MRF model defined on a complete graph. Concretely, this Gibbs energy model encodes the set of binary constraints, in terms of pairs of pixel labels, provided by each segmentation results to be fused. Combined with a prior distribution, this energy-based Gibbs model also allows for definition of an interesting penalized maximum probabilistic rand estimator with which the fusion of simple, quickly estimated, segmentation results appears as an interesting alternative to complex segmentation models existing in the literature. This fusion framework has been successfully applied on the Berkeley image database. The experiments reported in this paper demonstrate that the proposed method is efficient in terms of visual evaluation and quantitative performance measures and performs well compared to the best existing state-of-the-art segmentation methods recently proposed in the literature.

  16. Complexity analysis of accelerated MCMC methods for Bayesian inversion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoang, Viet Ha; Schwab, Christoph; Stuart, Andrew M

    2013-01-01

    The Bayesian approach to inverse problems, in which the posterior probability distribution on an unknown field is sampled for the purposes of computing posterior expectations of quantities of interest, is starting to become computationally feasible for partial differential equation (PDE) inverse problems. Balancing the sources of error arising from finite-dimensional approximation of the unknown field, the PDE forward solution map and the sampling of the probability space under the posterior distribution are essential for the design of efficient computational Bayesian methods for PDE inverse problems. We study Bayesian inversion for a model elliptic PDE with an unknown diffusion coefficient. We provide complexity analyses of several Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for the efficient numerical evaluation of expectations under the Bayesian posterior distribution, given data δ. Particular attention is given to bounds on the overall work required to achieve a prescribed error level ε. Specifically, we first bound the computational complexity of ‘plain’ MCMC, based on combining MCMC sampling with linear complexity multi-level solvers for elliptic PDE. Our (new) work versus accuracy bounds show that the complexity of this approach can be quite prohibitive. Two strategies for reducing the computational complexity are then proposed and analyzed: first, a sparse, parametric and deterministic generalized polynomial chaos (gpc) ‘surrogate’ representation of the forward response map of the PDE over the entire parameter space, and, second, a novel multi-level Markov chain Monte Carlo strategy which utilizes sampling from a multi-level discretization of the posterior and the forward PDE. For both of these strategies, we derive asymptotic bounds on work versus accuracy, and hence asymptotic bounds on the computational complexity of the algorithms. In particular, we provide sufficient conditions on the regularity of the unknown coefficients of the PDE and on the

  17. Application of an efficient Bayesian discretization method to biomedical data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gopalakrishnan Vanathi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several data mining methods require data that are discrete, and other methods often perform better with discrete data. We introduce an efficient Bayesian discretization (EBD method for optimal discretization of variables that runs efficiently on high-dimensional biomedical datasets. The EBD method consists of two components, namely, a Bayesian score to evaluate discretizations and a dynamic programming search procedure to efficiently search the space of possible discretizations. We compared the performance of EBD to Fayyad and Irani's (FI discretization method, which is commonly used for discretization. Results On 24 biomedical datasets obtained from high-throughput transcriptomic and proteomic studies, the classification performances of the C4.5 classifier and the naïve Bayes classifier were statistically significantly better when the predictor variables were discretized using EBD over FI. EBD was statistically significantly more stable to the variability of the datasets than FI. However, EBD was less robust, though not statistically significantly so, than FI and produced slightly more complex discretizations than FI. Conclusions On a range of biomedical datasets, a Bayesian discretization method (EBD yielded better classification performance and stability but was less robust than the widely used FI discretization method. The EBD discretization method is easy to implement, permits the incorporation of prior knowledge and belief, and is sufficiently fast for application to high-dimensional data.

  18. Quantifying Uncertainty in Near Surface Electromagnetic Imaging Using Bayesian Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blatter, D. B.; Ray, A.; Key, K.

    2017-12-01

    Geoscientists commonly use electromagnetic methods to image the Earth's near surface. Field measurements of EM fields are made (often with the aid an artificial EM source) and then used to infer near surface electrical conductivity via a process known as inversion. In geophysics, the standard inversion tool kit is robust and can provide an estimate of the Earth's near surface conductivity that is both geologically reasonable and compatible with the measured field data. However, standard inverse methods struggle to provide a sense of the uncertainty in the estimate they provide. This is because the task of finding an Earth model that explains the data to within measurement error is non-unique - that is, there are many, many such models; but the standard methods provide only one "answer." An alternative method, known as Bayesian inversion, seeks to explore the full range of Earth model parameters that can adequately explain the measured data, rather than attempting to find a single, "ideal" model. Bayesian inverse methods can therefore provide a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty inherent in trying to infer near surface conductivity from noisy, measured field data. This study applies a Bayesian inverse method (called trans-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo) to transient airborne EM data previously collected over Taylor Valley - one of the McMurdo Dry Valleys in Antarctica. Our results confirm the reasonableness of previous estimates (made using standard methods) of near surface conductivity beneath Taylor Valley. In addition, we demonstrate quantitatively the uncertainty associated with those estimates. We demonstrate that Bayesian inverse methods can provide quantitative uncertainty to estimates of near surface conductivity.

  19. A Bayesian statistical method for particle identification in shower counters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takashimizu, N.; Kimura, A.; Shibata, A.; Sasaki, T.

    2004-01-01

    We report an attempt on identifying particles using a Bayesian statistical method. We have developed the mathematical model and software for this purpose. We tried to identify electrons and charged pions in shower counters using this method. We designed an ideal shower counter and studied the efficiency of identification using Monte Carlo simulation based on Geant4. Without having any other information, e.g. charges of particles which are given by tracking detectors, we have achieved 95% identifications of both particles

  20. Bayesian methods for interpreting plutonium urinalysis data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, G.; Inkret, W.C.

    1995-01-01

    The authors discuss an internal dosimetry problem, where measurements of plutonium in urine are used to calculate radiation doses. The authors have developed an algorithm using the MAXENT method. The method gives reasonable results, however the role of the entropy prior distribution is to effectively fit the urine data using intakes occurring close in time to each measured urine result, which is unrealistic. A better approximation for the actual prior is the log-normal distribution; however, with the log-normal distribution another calculational approach must be used. Instead of calculating the most probable values, they turn to calculating expectation values directly from the posterior probability, which is feasible for a small number of intakes

  1. A spatiotemporal dengue fever early warning model accounting for nonlinear associations with meteorological factors: a Bayesian maximum entropy approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chien, Lung-Chang

    2014-05-01

    Dengue fever has been identified as one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases in tropical and sub-tropical. In the last decade, dengue is an emerging infectious disease epidemic in Taiwan especially in the southern area where have annually high incidences. For the purpose of disease prevention and control, an early warning system is urgently needed. Previous studies have showed significant relationships between climate variables, in particular, rainfall and temperature, and the temporal epidemic patterns of dengue cases. However, the transmission of the dengue fever is a complex interactive process that mostly understated the composite space-time effects of dengue fever. This study proposes developing a one-week ahead warning system of dengue fever epidemics in the southern Taiwan that considered nonlinear associations between weekly dengue cases and meteorological factors across space and time. The early warning system based on an integration of distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. The study identified the most significant meteorological measures including weekly minimum temperature and maximum 24-hour rainfall with continuous 15-week lagged time to dengue cases variation under condition of uncertainty. Subsequently, the combination of nonlinear lagged effects of climate variables and space-time dependence function is implemented via a Bayesian framework to predict dengue fever occurrences in the southern Taiwan during 2012. The result shows the early warning system is useful for providing potential outbreak spatio-temporal prediction of dengue fever distribution. In conclusion, the proposed approach can provide a practical disease control tool for environmental regulators seeking more effective strategies for dengue fever prevention.

  2. An Overview of Bayesian Methods for Neural Spike Train Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Chen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Neural spike train analysis is an important task in computational neuroscience which aims to understand neural mechanisms and gain insights into neural circuits. With the advancement of multielectrode recording and imaging technologies, it has become increasingly demanding to develop statistical tools for analyzing large neuronal ensemble spike activity. Here we present a tutorial overview of Bayesian methods and their representative applications in neural spike train analysis, at both single neuron and population levels. On the theoretical side, we focus on various approximate Bayesian inference techniques as applied to latent state and parameter estimation. On the application side, the topics include spike sorting, tuning curve estimation, neural encoding and decoding, deconvolution of spike trains from calcium imaging signals, and inference of neuronal functional connectivity and synchrony. Some research challenges and opportunities for neural spike train analysis are discussed.

  3. A Bayesian method for assessing multiscalespecies-habitat relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuber, Erica F.; Gruber, Lutz F.; Fontaine, Joseph J.

    2017-01-01

    ContextScientists face several theoretical and methodological challenges in appropriately describing fundamental wildlife-habitat relationships in models. The spatial scales of habitat relationships are often unknown, and are expected to follow a multi-scale hierarchy. Typical frequentist or information theoretic approaches often suffer under collinearity in multi-scale studies, fail to converge when models are complex or represent an intractable computational burden when candidate model sets are large.ObjectivesOur objective was to implement an automated, Bayesian method for inference on the spatial scales of habitat variables that best predict animal abundance.MethodsWe introduce Bayesian latent indicator scale selection (BLISS), a Bayesian method to select spatial scales of predictors using latent scale indicator variables that are estimated with reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. BLISS does not suffer from collinearity, and substantially reduces computation time of studies. We present a simulation study to validate our method and apply our method to a case-study of land cover predictors for ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) abundance in Nebraska, USA.ResultsOur method returns accurate descriptions of the explanatory power of multiple spatial scales, and unbiased and precise parameter estimates under commonly encountered data limitations including spatial scale autocorrelation, effect size, and sample size. BLISS outperforms commonly used model selection methods including stepwise and AIC, and reduces runtime by 90%.ConclusionsGiven the pervasiveness of scale-dependency in ecology, and the implications of mismatches between the scales of analyses and ecological processes, identifying the spatial scales over which species are integrating habitat information is an important step in understanding species-habitat relationships. BLISS is a widely applicable method for identifying important spatial scales, propagating scale uncertainty, and

  4. Statistical Bayesian method for reliability evaluation based on ADT data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Dawei; Wang, Lizhi; Sun, Yusheng; Wang, Xiaohong

    2018-05-01

    Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) is frequently conducted in the laboratory to predict the products’ reliability under normal operating conditions. Two kinds of methods, degradation path models and stochastic process models, are utilized to analyze degradation data and the latter one is the most popular method. However, some limitations like imprecise solution process and estimation result of degradation ratio still exist, which may affect the accuracy of the acceleration model and the extrapolation value. Moreover, the conducted solution of this problem, Bayesian method, lose key information when unifying the degradation data. In this paper, a new data processing and parameter inference method based on Bayesian method is proposed to handle degradation data and solve the problems above. First, Wiener process and acceleration model is chosen; Second, the initial values of degradation model and parameters of prior and posterior distribution under each level is calculated with updating and iteration of estimation values; Third, the lifetime and reliability values are estimated on the basis of the estimation parameters; Finally, a case study is provided to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. The results illustrate that the proposed method is quite effective and accuracy in estimating the lifetime and reliability of a product.

  5. Advances in Applications of Hierarchical Bayesian Methods with Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, R. B.; Schwarz, G. E.; Boyer, E. W.

    2017-12-01

    Mechanistic and empirical watershed models are increasingly used to inform water resource decisions. Growing access to historical stream measurements and data from in-situ sensor technologies has increased the need for improved techniques for coupling models with hydrological measurements. Techniques that account for the intrinsic uncertainties of both models and measurements are especially needed. Hierarchical Bayesian methods provide an efficient modeling tool for quantifying model and prediction uncertainties, including those associated with measurements. Hierarchical methods can also be used to explore spatial and temporal variations in model parameters and uncertainties that are informed by hydrological measurements. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to develop a hybrid (statistical-mechanistic) SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) model of long-term mean annual streamflow across diverse environmental and climatic drainages in 18 U.S. hydrological regions. Our application illustrates the use of a new generation of Bayesian methods that offer more advanced computational efficiencies than the prior generation. Evaluations of the effects of hierarchical (regional) variations in model coefficients and uncertainties on model accuracy indicates improved prediction accuracies (median of 10-50%) but primarily in humid eastern regions, where model uncertainties are one-third of those in arid western regions. Generally moderate regional variability is observed for most hierarchical coefficients. Accounting for measurement and structural uncertainties, using hierarchical state-space techniques, revealed the effects of spatially-heterogeneous, latent hydrological processes in the "localized" drainages between calibration sites; this improved model precision, with only minor changes in regional coefficients. Our study can inform advances in the use of hierarchical methods with hydrological models to improve their integration with stream

  6. Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W Redding

    Full Text Available Statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of taxa (Species Distribution Models, SDMs commonly rely on available occurrence data, which is often clumped and geographically restricted. Although available SDM methods address some of these factors, they could be more directly and accurately modelled using a spatially-explicit approach. Software to fit models with spatial autocorrelation parameters in SDMs are now widely available, but whether such approaches for inferring SDMs aid predictions compared to other methodologies is unknown. Here, within a simulated environment using 1000 generated species' ranges, we compared the performance of two commonly used non-spatial SDM methods (Maximum Entropy Modelling, MAXENT and boosted regression trees, BRT, to a spatial Bayesian SDM method (fitted using R-INLA, when the underlying data exhibit varying combinations of clumping and geographic restriction. Finally, we tested how any recommended methodological settings designed to account for spatially non-random patterns in the data impact inference. Spatial Bayesian SDM method was the most consistently accurate method, being in the top 2 most accurate methods in 7 out of 8 data sampling scenarios. Within high-coverage sample datasets, all methods performed fairly similarly. When sampling points were randomly spread, BRT had a 1-3% greater accuracy over the other methods and when samples were clumped, the spatial Bayesian SDM method had a 4%-8% better AUC score. Alternatively, when sampling points were restricted to a small section of the true range all methods were on average 10-12% less accurate, with greater variation among the methods. Model inference under the recommended settings to account for autocorrelation was not impacted by clumping or restriction of data, except for the complexity of the spatial regression term in the spatial Bayesian model. Methods, such as those made available by R-INLA, can be successfully used to account

  7. Evaluating Bayesian spatial methods for modelling species distributions with clumped and restricted occurrence data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redding, David W; Lucas, Tim C D; Blackburn, Tim M; Jones, Kate E

    2017-01-01

    Statistical approaches for inferring the spatial distribution of taxa (Species Distribution Models, SDMs) commonly rely on available occurrence data, which is often clumped and geographically restricted. Although available SDM methods address some of these factors, they could be more directly and accurately modelled using a spatially-explicit approach. Software to fit models with spatial autocorrelation parameters in SDMs are now widely available, but whether such approaches for inferring SDMs aid predictions compared to other methodologies is unknown. Here, within a simulated environment using 1000 generated species' ranges, we compared the performance of two commonly used non-spatial SDM methods (Maximum Entropy Modelling, MAXENT and boosted regression trees, BRT), to a spatial Bayesian SDM method (fitted using R-INLA), when the underlying data exhibit varying combinations of clumping and geographic restriction. Finally, we tested how any recommended methodological settings designed to account for spatially non-random patterns in the data impact inference. Spatial Bayesian SDM method was the most consistently accurate method, being in the top 2 most accurate methods in 7 out of 8 data sampling scenarios. Within high-coverage sample datasets, all methods performed fairly similarly. When sampling points were randomly spread, BRT had a 1-3% greater accuracy over the other methods and when samples were clumped, the spatial Bayesian SDM method had a 4%-8% better AUC score. Alternatively, when sampling points were restricted to a small section of the true range all methods were on average 10-12% less accurate, with greater variation among the methods. Model inference under the recommended settings to account for autocorrelation was not impacted by clumping or restriction of data, except for the complexity of the spatial regression term in the spatial Bayesian model. Methods, such as those made available by R-INLA, can be successfully used to account for spatial

  8. Bayesian methods for chromosome dosimetry following a criticality accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brame, R.S.; Groer, P.G.

    2003-01-01

    Radiation doses received during a criticality accident will be from a combination of fission spectrum neutrons and gamma rays. It is desirable to estimate the total dose, as well as the neutron and gamma doses. Present methods for dose estimation with chromosome aberrations after a criticality accident use point estimates of the neutron to gamma dose ratio obtained from personnel dosemeters and/or accident reconstruction calculations. In this paper a Bayesian approach to dose estimation with chromosome aberrations is developed that allows the uncertainty of the dose ratio to be considered. Posterior probability densities for the total and the neutron and gamma doses were derived. (author)

  9. Bayesian Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  10. Dynamic model based on Bayesian method for energy security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Augutis, Juozas; Krikštolaitis, Ričardas; Pečiulytė, Sigita; Žutautaitė, Inga

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Methodology for dynamic indicator model construction and forecasting of indicators. • Application of dynamic indicator model for energy system development scenarios. • Expert judgement involvement using Bayesian method. - Abstract: The methodology for the dynamic indicator model construction and forecasting of indicators for the assessment of energy security level is presented in this article. An indicator is a special index, which provides numerical values to important factors for the investigated area. In real life, models of different processes take into account various factors that are time-dependent and dependent on each other. Thus, it is advisable to construct a dynamic model in order to describe these dependences. The energy security indicators are used as factors in the dynamic model. Usually, the values of indicators are obtained from statistical data. The developed dynamic model enables to forecast indicators’ variation taking into account changes in system configuration. The energy system development is usually based on a new object construction. Since the parameters of changes of the new system are not exactly known, information about their influences on indicators could not be involved in the model by deterministic methods. Thus, dynamic indicators’ model based on historical data is adjusted by probabilistic model with the influence of new factors on indicators using the Bayesian method

  11. Determination of the maximum-depth to potential field sources by a maximum structural index method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedi, M.; Florio, G.

    2013-01-01

    A simple and fast determination of the limiting depth to the sources may represent a significant help to the data interpretation. To this end we explore the possibility of determining those source parameters shared by all the classes of models fitting the data. One approach is to determine the maximum depth-to-source compatible with the measured data, by using for example the well-known Bott-Smith rules. These rules involve only the knowledge of the field and its horizontal gradient maxima, and are independent from the density contrast. Thanks to the direct relationship between structural index and depth to sources we work out a simple and fast strategy to obtain the maximum depth by using the semi-automated methods, such as Euler deconvolution or depth-from-extreme-points method (DEXP). The proposed method consists in estimating the maximum depth as the one obtained for the highest allowable value of the structural index (Nmax). Nmax may be easily determined, since it depends only on the dimensionality of the problem (2D/3D) and on the nature of the analyzed field (e.g., gravity field or magnetic field). We tested our approach on synthetic models against the results obtained by the classical Bott-Smith formulas and the results are in fact very similar, confirming the validity of this method. However, while Bott-Smith formulas are restricted to the gravity field only, our method is applicable also to the magnetic field and to any derivative of the gravity and magnetic field. Our method yields a useful criterion to assess the source model based on the (∂f/∂x)max/fmax ratio. The usefulness of the method in real cases is demonstrated for a salt wall in the Mississippi basin, where the estimation of the maximum depth agrees with the seismic information.

  12. Constructive Epistemic Modeling: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, F. T. C.; Elshall, A. S.

    2014-12-01

    Constructive epistemic modeling is the idea that our understanding of a natural system through a scientific model is a mental construct that continually develops through learning about and from the model. Using the hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method [1], this study shows that segregating different uncertain model components through a BMA tree of posterior model probabilities, model prediction, within-model variance, between-model variance and total model variance serves as a learning tool [2]. First, the BMA tree of posterior model probabilities permits the comparative evaluation of the candidate propositions of each uncertain model component. Second, systemic model dissection is imperative for understanding the individual contribution of each uncertain model component to the model prediction and variance. Third, the hierarchical representation of the between-model variance facilitates the prioritization of the contribution of each uncertain model component to the overall model uncertainty. We illustrate these concepts using the groundwater modeling of a siliciclastic aquifer-fault system. The sources of uncertainty considered are from geological architecture, formation dip, boundary conditions and model parameters. The study shows that the HBMA analysis helps in advancing knowledge about the model rather than forcing the model to fit a particularly understanding or merely averaging several candidate models. [1] Tsai, F. T.-C., and A. S. Elshall (2013), Hierarchical Bayesian model averaging for hydrostratigraphic modeling: Uncertainty segregation and comparative evaluation. Water Resources Research, 49, 5520-5536, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20428. [2] Elshall, A.S., and F. T.-C. Tsai (2014). Constructive epistemic modeling of groundwater flow with geological architecture and boundary condition uncertainty under Bayesian paradigm, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 105-119, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.027.

  13. Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

    2012-04-01

    With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

  14. A Bayesian method for detecting pairwise associations in compositional data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emma Schwager

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Compositional data consist of vectors of proportions normalized to a constant sum from a basis of unobserved counts. The sum constraint makes inference on correlations between unconstrained features challenging due to the information loss from normalization. However, such correlations are of long-standing interest in fields including ecology. We propose a novel Bayesian framework (BAnOCC: Bayesian Analysis of Compositional Covariance to estimate a sparse precision matrix through a LASSO prior. The resulting posterior, generated by MCMC sampling, allows uncertainty quantification of any function of the precision matrix, including the correlation matrix. We also use a first-order Taylor expansion to approximate the transformation from the unobserved counts to the composition in order to investigate what characteristics of the unobserved counts can make the correlations more or less difficult to infer. On simulated datasets, we show that BAnOCC infers the true network as well as previous methods while offering the advantage of posterior inference. Larger and more realistic simulated datasets further showed that BAnOCC performs well as measured by type I and type II error rates. Finally, we apply BAnOCC to a microbial ecology dataset from the Human Microbiome Project, which in addition to reproducing established ecological results revealed unique, competition-based roles for Proteobacteria in multiple distinct habitats.

  15. Bayesian statistic methods and theri application in probabilistic simulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Iannazzo

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian statistic methods are facing a rapidly growing level of interest and acceptance in the field of health economics. The reasons of this success are probably to be found on the theoretical fundaments of the discipline that make these techniques more appealing to decision analysis. To this point should be added the modern IT progress that has developed different flexible and powerful statistical software framework. Among them probably one of the most noticeably is the BUGS language project and its standalone application for MS Windows WinBUGS. Scope of this paper is to introduce the subject and to show some interesting applications of WinBUGS in developing complex economical models based on Markov chains. The advantages of this approach reside on the elegance of the code produced and in its capability to easily develop probabilistic simulations. Moreover an example of the integration of bayesian inference models in a Markov model is shown. This last feature let the analyst conduce statistical analyses on the available sources of evidence and exploit them directly as inputs in the economic model.

  16. Analyzing bioassay data using Bayesian methods -- A primer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, G.; Inkret, W.C.; Schillaci, M.E.; Martz, H.F.; Little, T.T.

    2000-06-01

    The classical statistics approach used in health physics for the interpretation of measurements is deficient in that it does not take into account needle in a haystack effects, that is, correct identification of events that are rare in a population. This is often the case in health physics measurements, and the false positive fraction (the fraction of results measuring positive that are actually zero) is often very large using the prescriptions of classical statistics. Bayesian statistics provides a methodology to minimize the number of incorrect decisions (wrong calls): false positives and false negatives. The authors present the basic method and a heuristic discussion. Examples are given using numerically generated and real bioassay data for tritium. Various analytical models are used to fit the prior probability distribution in order to test the sensitivity to choice of model. Parametric studies show that for typical situations involving rare events the normalized Bayesian decision level k{sub {alpha}} = L{sub c}/{sigma}{sub 0}, where {sigma}{sub 0} is the measurement uncertainty for zero true amount, is in the range of 3 to 5 depending on the true positive rate. Four times {sigma}{sub 0} rather than approximately two times {sigma}{sub 0}, as in classical statistics, would seem a better choice for the decision level in these situations.

  17. THz-SAR Vibrating Target Imaging via the Bayesian Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Deng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Target vibration bears important information for target recognition, and terahertz, due to significant micro-Doppler effects, has strong advantages for remotely sensing vibrations. In this paper, the imaging characteristics of vibrating targets with THz-SAR are at first analyzed. An improved algorithm based on an excellent Bayesian approach, that is, the expansion-compression variance-component (ExCoV method, has been proposed for reconstructing scattering coefficients of vibrating targets, which provides more robust and efficient initialization and overcomes the deficiencies of sidelobes as well as artifacts arising from the traditional correlation method. A real vibration measurement experiment of idle cars was performed to validate the range model. Simulated SAR data of vibrating targets and a tank model in a real background in 220 GHz show good performance at low SNR. Rapidly evolving high-power terahertz devices will offer viable THz-SAR application at a distance of several kilometers.

  18. Bayesian methods in the search for MH370

    CERN Document Server

    Davey, Sam; Holland, Ian; Rutten, Mark; Williams, Jason

    2016-01-01

    This book demonstrates how nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian time series estimation methods were used to produce a probability distribution of potential MH370 flight paths. It provides details of how the probabilistic models of aircraft flight dynamics, satellite communication system measurements, environmental effects and radar data were constructed and calibrated. The probability distribution was used to define the search zone in the southern Indian Ocean. The book describes particle-filter based numerical calculation of the aircraft flight-path probability distribution and validates the method using data from several of the involved aircraft’s previous flights. Finally it is shown how the Reunion Island flaperon debris find affects the search probability distribution.

  19. A variational Bayesian method to inverse problems with impulsive noise

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Bangti

    2012-01-01

    We propose a novel numerical method for solving inverse problems subject to impulsive noises which possibly contain a large number of outliers. The approach is of Bayesian type, and it exploits a heavy-tailed t distribution for data noise to achieve robustness with respect to outliers. A hierarchical model with all hyper-parameters automatically determined from the given data is described. An algorithm of variational type by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the true posteriori distribution and a separable approximation is developed. The numerical method is illustrated on several one- and two-dimensional linear and nonlinear inverse problems arising from heat conduction, including estimating boundary temperature, heat flux and heat transfer coefficient. The results show its robustness to outliers and the fast and steady convergence of the algorithm. © 2011 Elsevier Inc.

  20. The moving-window Bayesian maximum entropy framework: estimation of PM(2.5) yearly average concentration across the contiguous United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akita, Yasuyuki; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Serre, Marc L

    2012-09-01

    Geostatistical methods are widely used in estimating long-term exposures for epidemiological studies on air pollution, despite their limited capabilities to handle spatial non-stationarity over large geographic domains and the uncertainty associated with missing monitoring data. We developed a moving-window (MW) Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method and applied this framework to estimate fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) yearly average concentrations over the contiguous US. The MW approach accounts for the spatial non-stationarity, while the BME method rigorously processes the uncertainty associated with data missingness in the air-monitoring system. In the cross-validation analyses conducted on a set of randomly selected complete PM(2.5) data in 2003 and on simulated data with different degrees of missing data, we demonstrate that the MW approach alone leads to at least 17.8% reduction in mean square error (MSE) in estimating the yearly PM(2.5). Moreover, the MWBME method further reduces the MSE by 8.4-43.7%, with the proportion of incomplete data increased from 18.3% to 82.0%. The MWBME approach leads to significant reductions in estimation error and thus is recommended for epidemiological studies investigating the effect of long-term exposure to PM(2.5) across large geographical domains with expected spatial non-stationarity.

  1. The moving-window Bayesian Maximum Entropy framework: Estimation of PM2.5 yearly average concentration across the contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akita, Yasuyuki; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Serre, Marc L.

    2013-01-01

    Geostatistical methods are widely used in estimating long-term exposures for air pollution epidemiological studies, despite their limited capabilities to handle spatial non-stationarity over large geographic domains and uncertainty associated with missing monitoring data. We developed a moving-window (MW) Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method and applied this framework to estimate fine particulate matter (PM2.5) yearly average concentrations over the contiguous U.S. The MW approach accounts for the spatial non-stationarity, while the BME method rigorously processes the uncertainty associated with data missingnees in the air monitoring system. In the cross-validation analyses conducted on a set of randomly selected complete PM2.5 data in 2003 and on simulated data with different degrees of missing data, we demonstrate that the MW approach alone leads to at least 17.8% reduction in mean square error (MSE) in estimating the yearly PM2.5. Moreover, the MWBME method further reduces the MSE by 8.4% to 43.7% with the proportion of incomplete data increased from 18.3% to 82.0%. The MWBME approach leads to significant reductions in estimation error and thus is recommended for epidemiological studies investigating the effect of long-term exposure to PM2.5 across large geographical domains with expected spatial non-stationarity. PMID:22739679

  2. A Bayesian statistical method for quantifying model form uncertainty and two model combination methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Inseok; Grandhi, Ramana V.

    2014-01-01

    Apart from parametric uncertainty, model form uncertainty as well as prediction error may be involved in the analysis of engineering system. Model form uncertainty, inherently existing in selecting the best approximation from a model set cannot be ignored, especially when the predictions by competing models show significant differences. In this research, a methodology based on maximum likelihood estimation is presented to quantify model form uncertainty using the measured differences of experimental and model outcomes, and is compared with a fully Bayesian estimation to demonstrate its effectiveness. While a method called the adjustment factor approach is utilized to propagate model form uncertainty alone into the prediction of a system response, a method called model averaging is utilized to incorporate both model form uncertainty and prediction error into it. A numerical problem of concrete creep is used to demonstrate the processes for quantifying model form uncertainty and implementing the adjustment factor approach and model averaging. Finally, the presented methodology is applied to characterize the engineering benefits of a laser peening process

  3. Current opinion about maximum entropy methods in Moessbauer spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szymanski, K

    2009-01-01

    Current opinion about Maximum Entropy Methods in Moessbauer Spectroscopy is presented. The most important advantage offered by the method is the correct data processing under circumstances of incomplete information. Disadvantage is the sophisticated algorithm and its application to the specific problems.

  4. Bayesian inference for data assimilation using Least-Squares Finite Element methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dwight, Richard P

    2010-01-01

    It has recently been observed that Least-Squares Finite Element methods (LS-FEMs) can be used to assimilate experimental data into approximations of PDEs in a natural way, as shown by Heyes et al. in the case of incompressible Navier-Stokes flow. The approach was shown to be effective without regularization terms, and can handle substantial noise in the experimental data without filtering. Of great practical importance is that - unlike other data assimilation techniques - it is not significantly more expensive than a single physical simulation. However the method as presented so far in the literature is not set in the context of an inverse problem framework, so that for example the meaning of the final result is unclear. In this paper it is shown that the method can be interpreted as finding a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator in a Bayesian approach to data assimilation, with normally distributed observational noise, and a Bayesian prior based on an appropriate norm of the governing equations. In this setting the method may be seen to have several desirable properties: most importantly discretization and modelling error in the simulation code does not affect the solution in limit of complete experimental information, so these errors do not have to be modelled statistically. Also the Bayesian interpretation better justifies the choice of the method, and some useful generalizations become apparent. The technique is applied to incompressible Navier-Stokes flow in a pipe with added velocity data, where its effectiveness, robustness to noise, and application to inverse problems is demonstrated.

  5. Modeling error distributions of growth curve models through Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiyong

    2016-06-01

    Growth curve models are widely used in social and behavioral sciences. However, typical growth curve models often assume that the errors are normally distributed although non-normal data may be even more common than normal data. In order to avoid possible statistical inference problems in blindly assuming normality, a general Bayesian framework is proposed to flexibly model normal and non-normal data through the explicit specification of the error distributions. A simulation study shows when the distribution of the error is correctly specified, one can avoid the loss in the efficiency of standard error estimates. A real example on the analysis of mathematical ability growth data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 is used to show the application of the proposed methods. Instructions and code on how to conduct growth curve analysis with both normal and non-normal error distributions using the the MCMC procedure of SAS are provided.

  6. A Maximum Entropy Method for a Robust Portfolio Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingying Xu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We propose a continuous maximum entropy method to investigate the robustoptimal portfolio selection problem for the market with transaction costs and dividends.This robust model aims to maximize the worst-case portfolio return in the case that allof asset returns lie within some prescribed intervals. A numerical optimal solution tothe problem is obtained by using a continuous maximum entropy method. Furthermore,some numerical experiments indicate that the robust model in this paper can result in betterportfolio performance than a classical mean-variance model.

  7. Bayesian signal processing classical, modern, and particle filtering methods

    CERN Document Server

    Candy, James V

    2016-01-01

    This book aims to give readers a unified Bayesian treatment starting from the basics (Baye's rule) to the more advanced (Monte Carlo sampling), evolving to the next-generation model-based techniques (sequential Monte Carlo sampling). This next edition incorporates a new chapter on "Sequential Bayesian Detection," a new section on "Ensemble Kalman Filters" as well as an expansion of Case Studies that detail Bayesian solutions for a variety of applications. These studies illustrate Bayesian approaches to real-world problems incorporating detailed particle filter designs, adaptive particle filters and sequential Bayesian detectors. In addition to these major developments a variety of sections are expanded to "fill-in-the gaps" of the first edition. Here metrics for particle filter (PF) designs with emphasis on classical "sanity testing" lead to ensemble techniques as a basic requirement for performance analysis. The expansion of information theory metrics and their application to PF designs is fully developed an...

  8. Development and comparison in uncertainty assessment based Bayesian modularization method in hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lu; Xu, Chong-Yu; Engeland, Kolbjørn

    2013-04-01

    SummaryWith respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, various regression and probabilistic approaches are used in hydrological modeling. A family of Bayesian methods, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayes' theorem, is widely used for uncertainty assessment. However, none of these approaches can well treat the impact of high flows in hydrological modeling. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization uncertainty assessment approach in which the highest streamflow observations are treated as suspect information that should not influence the inference of the main bulk of the model parameters. This study includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by our new Bayesian modularization method and standard Bayesian methods using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions were used in combination with standard Bayesian method: the AR(1) plus Normal model independent of time (Model 1), the AR(1) plus Normal model dependent on time (Model 2) and the AR(1) plus Multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that the Bayesian modularization method provides the most accurate streamflow estimates measured by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and provide the best in uncertainty estimates for low, medium and entire flows compared to standard Bayesian methods. The study thus provides a new approach for reducing the impact of high flows on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian method.

  9. Maximum super angle optimization method for array antenna pattern synthesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Ji; Roederer, A. G

    1991-01-01

    Different optimization criteria related to antenna pattern synthesis are discussed. Based on the maximum criteria and vector space representation, a simple and efficient optimization method is presented for array and array fed reflector power pattern synthesis. A sector pattern synthesized by a 2...

  10. Gamma-ray spectra deconvolution by maximum-entropy methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Los Arcos, J.M.

    1996-01-01

    A maximum-entropy method which includes the response of detectors and the statistical fluctuations of spectra is described and applied to the deconvolution of γ-ray spectra. Resolution enhancement of 25% can be reached for experimental peaks and up to 50% for simulated ones, while the intensities are conserved within 1-2%. (orig.)

  11. Applications of the Maximum Entropy Method in superspace

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    van Smaalen, S.; Palatinus, Lukáš

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 305, - (2004), s. 57-62 ISSN 0015-0193 Grant - others:DFG and FCI(DE) XX Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1010914 Keywords : Maximum Entropy Method * modulated structures * charge density Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 0.517, year: 2004

  12. Novel TPPO Based Maximum Power Point Method for Photovoltaic System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ABBASI, M. A.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Photovoltaic (PV system has a great potential and it is installed more when compared with other renewable energy sources nowadays. However, the PV system cannot perform optimally due to its solid reliance on climate conditions. Due to this dependency, PV system does not operate at its maximum power point (MPP. Many MPP tracking methods have been proposed for this purpose. One of these is the Perturb and Observe Method (P&O which is the most famous due to its simplicity, less cost and fast track. But it deviates from MPP in continuously changing weather conditions, especially in rapidly changing irradiance conditions. A new Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT method, Tetra Point Perturb and Observe (TPPO, has been proposed to improve PV system performance in changing irradiance conditions and the effects on characteristic curves of PV array module due to varying irradiance are delineated. The Proposed MPPT method has shown better results in increasing the efficiency of a PV system.

  13. Precise charge density studies by maximum entropy method

    CERN Document Server

    Takata, M

    2003-01-01

    For the production research and development of nanomaterials, their structural information is indispensable. Recently, a sophisticated analytical method, which is based on information theory, the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) using synchrotron radiation powder data, has been successfully applied to determine precise charge densities of metallofullerenes and nanochannel microporous compounds. The results revealed various endohedral natures of metallofullerenes and one-dimensional array formation of adsorbed gas molecules in nanochannel microporous compounds. The concept of MEM analysis was also described briefly. (author)

  14. Maximum-likelihood method for numerical inversion of Mellin transform

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iqbal, M.

    1997-01-01

    A method is described for inverting the Mellin transform which uses an expansion in Laguerre polynomials and converts the Mellin transform to Laplace transform, then the maximum-likelihood regularization method is used to recover the original function of the Mellin transform. The performance of the method is illustrated by the inversion of the test functions available in the literature (J. Inst. Math. Appl., 20 (1977) 73; Math. Comput., 53 (1989) 589). Effectiveness of the method is shown by results obtained through demonstration by means of tables and diagrams

  15. The current state of Bayesian methods in medical product development: survey results and recommendations from the DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natanegara, Fanni; Neuenschwander, Beat; Seaman, John W; Kinnersley, Nelson; Heilmann, Cory R; Ohlssen, David; Rochester, George

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian applications in medical product development have recently gained popularity. Despite many advances in Bayesian methodology and computations, increase in application across the various areas of medical product development has been modest. The DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group (BSWG), which includes representatives from industry, regulatory agencies, and academia, has adopted the vision to ensure Bayesian methods are well understood, accepted more broadly, and appropriately utilized to improve decision making and enhance patient outcomes. As Bayesian applications in medical product development are wide ranging, several sub-teams were formed to focus on various topics such as patient safety, non-inferiority, prior specification, comparative effectiveness, joint modeling, program-wide decision making, analytical tools, and education. The focus of this paper is on the recent effort of the BSWG Education sub-team to administer a Bayesian survey to statisticians across 17 organizations involved in medical product development. We summarize results of this survey, from which we provide recommendations on how to accelerate progress in Bayesian applications throughout medical product development. The survey results support findings from the literature and provide additional insight on regulatory acceptance of Bayesian methods and information on the need for a Bayesian infrastructure within an organization. The survey findings support the claim that only modest progress in areas of education and implementation has been made recently, despite substantial progress in Bayesian statistical research and software availability. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses of a combined nucleotide sequence dataset for genetic characterization of a novel pestivirus, SVA/cont-08.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Lihong; Xia, Hongyan; Baule, Claudia; Belák, Sándor

    2009-01-01

    Bovine viral diarrhoea virus 1 (BVDV-1) and Bovine viral diarrhoea virus 2 (BVDV-2) are two recognised bovine pestivirus species of the genus Pestivirus. Recently, a pestivirus, termed SVA/cont-08, was detected in a batch of contaminated foetal calf serum originating from South America. Comparative sequence analysis showed that the SVA/cont-08 virus shares 15-28% higher sequence identity to pestivirus D32/00_'HoBi' than to members of BVDV-1 and BVDV-2. In order to reveal the phylogenetic relationship of SVA/cont-08 with other pestiviruses, a molecular dataset of 30 pestiviruses and 1,896 characters, comprising the 5'UTR, N(pro) and E2 gene regions, was analysed by two methods: maximum likelihood and Bayesian approach. An identical, well-supported tree topology was observed, where four pestiviruses (SVA/cont-08, D32/00_'HoBi', CH-KaHo/cont, and Th/04_KhonKaen) formed a monophyletic clade that is closely related to the BVDV-1 and BVDV-2 clades. The strategy applied in this study is useful for classifying novel pestiviruses in the future.

  17. CEO emotional bias and investment decision, Bayesian network method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarboui Anis

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the determinants of firms’ investment introducing a behavioral perspective that has received little attention in corporate finance literature. The following central hypothesis emerges from a set of recently developed theories: Investment decisions are influenced not only by their fundamentals but also depend on some other factors. One factor is the biasness of any CEO to their investment, biasness depends on the cognition and emotions, because some leaders use them as heuristic for the investment decision instead of fundamentals. This paper shows how CEO emotional bias (optimism, loss aversion and overconfidence affects the investment decisions. The proposed model of this paper uses Bayesian Network Method to examine this relationship. Emotional bias has been measured by means of a questionnaire comprising several items. As for the selected sample, it has been composed of some 100 Tunisian executives. Our results have revealed that the behavioral analysis of investment decision implies leader affected by behavioral biases (optimism, loss aversion, and overconfidence adjusts its investment choices based on their ability to assess alternatives (optimism and overconfidence and risk perception (loss aversion to create of shareholder value and ensure its place at the head of the management team.

  18. Fast gradient-based methods for Bayesian reconstruction of transmission and emission PET images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mumcuglu, E.U.; Leahy, R.; Zhou, Z.; Cherry, S.R.

    1994-01-01

    The authors describe conjugate gradient algorithms for reconstruction of transmission and emission PET images. The reconstructions are based on a Bayesian formulation, where the data are modeled as a collection of independent Poisson random variables and the image is modeled using a Markov random field. A conjugate gradient algorithm is used to compute a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of the image by maximizing over the posterior density. To ensure nonnegativity of the solution, a penalty function is used to convert the problem to one of unconstrained optimization. Preconditioners are used to enhance convergence rates. These methods generally achieve effective convergence in 15--25 iterations. Reconstructions are presented of an 18 FDG whole body scan from data collected using a Siemens/CTI ECAT931 whole body system. These results indicate significant improvements in emission image quality using the Bayesian approach, in comparison to filtered backprojection, particularly when reprojections of the MAP transmission image are used in place of the standard attenuation correction factors

  19. A generic method for estimating system reliability using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doguc, Ozge; Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel

    2009-01-01

    This study presents a holistic method for constructing a Bayesian network (BN) model for estimating system reliability. BN is a probabilistic approach that is used to model and predict the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The BN model is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) where the nodes represent system components and arcs represent relationships among them. Although recent studies on using BN for estimating system reliability have been proposed, they are based on the assumption that a pre-built BN has been designed to represent the system. In these studies, the task of building the BN is typically left to a group of specialists who are BN and domain experts. The BN experts should learn about the domain before building the BN, which is generally very time consuming and may lead to incorrect deductions. As there are no existing studies to eliminate the need for a human expert in the process of system reliability estimation, this paper introduces a method that uses historical data about the system to be modeled as a BN and provides efficient techniques for automated construction of the BN model, and hence estimation of the system reliability. In this respect K2, a data mining algorithm, is used for finding associations between system components, and thus building the BN model. This algorithm uses a heuristic to provide efficient and accurate results while searching for associations. Moreover, no human intervention is necessary during the process of BN construction and reliability estimation. The paper provides a step-by-step illustration of the method and evaluation of the approach with literature case examples

  20. A generic method for estimating system reliability using Bayesian networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doguc, Ozge [Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States); Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel [Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030 (United States)], E-mail: jmarquez@stevens.edu

    2009-02-15

    This study presents a holistic method for constructing a Bayesian network (BN) model for estimating system reliability. BN is a probabilistic approach that is used to model and predict the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The BN model is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) where the nodes represent system components and arcs represent relationships among them. Although recent studies on using BN for estimating system reliability have been proposed, they are based on the assumption that a pre-built BN has been designed to represent the system. In these studies, the task of building the BN is typically left to a group of specialists who are BN and domain experts. The BN experts should learn about the domain before building the BN, which is generally very time consuming and may lead to incorrect deductions. As there are no existing studies to eliminate the need for a human expert in the process of system reliability estimation, this paper introduces a method that uses historical data about the system to be modeled as a BN and provides efficient techniques for automated construction of the BN model, and hence estimation of the system reliability. In this respect K2, a data mining algorithm, is used for finding associations between system components, and thus building the BN model. This algorithm uses a heuristic to provide efficient and accurate results while searching for associations. Moreover, no human intervention is necessary during the process of BN construction and reliability estimation. The paper provides a step-by-step illustration of the method and evaluation of the approach with literature case examples.

  1. MEGA5: Molecular Evolutionary Genetics Analysis Using Maximum Likelihood, Evolutionary Distance, and Maximum Parsimony Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Koichiro; Peterson, Daniel; Peterson, Nicholas; Stecher, Glen; Nei, Masatoshi; Kumar, Sudhir

    2011-01-01

    Comparative analysis of molecular sequence data is essential for reconstructing the evolutionary histories of species and inferring the nature and extent of selective forces shaping the evolution of genes and species. Here, we announce the release of Molecular Evolutionary Genetics Analysis version 5 (MEGA5), which is a user-friendly software for mining online databases, building sequence alignments and phylogenetic trees, and using methods of evolutionary bioinformatics in basic biology, biomedicine, and evolution. The newest addition in MEGA5 is a collection of maximum likelihood (ML) analyses for inferring evolutionary trees, selecting best-fit substitution models (nucleotide or amino acid), inferring ancestral states and sequences (along with probabilities), and estimating evolutionary rates site-by-site. In computer simulation analyses, ML tree inference algorithms in MEGA5 compared favorably with other software packages in terms of computational efficiency and the accuracy of the estimates of phylogenetic trees, substitution parameters, and rate variation among sites. The MEGA user interface has now been enhanced to be activity driven to make it easier for the use of both beginners and experienced scientists. This version of MEGA is intended for the Windows platform, and it has been configured for effective use on Mac OS X and Linux desktops. It is available free of charge from http://www.megasoftware.net. PMID:21546353

  2. Spatiotemporal modeling of ozone levels in Quebec (Canada): a comparison of kriging, land-use regression (LUR), and combined Bayesian maximum entropy-LUR approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam-Poupart, Ariane; Brand, Allan; Fournier, Michel; Jerrett, Michael; Smargiassi, Audrey

    2014-09-01

    Ambient air ozone (O3) is a pulmonary irritant that has been associated with respiratory health effects including increased lung inflammation and permeability, airway hyperreactivity, respiratory symptoms, and decreased lung function. Estimation of O3 exposure is a complex task because the pollutant exhibits complex spatiotemporal patterns. To refine the quality of exposure estimation, various spatiotemporal methods have been developed worldwide. We sought to compare the accuracy of three spatiotemporal models to predict summer ground-level O3 in Quebec, Canada. We developed a land-use mixed-effects regression (LUR) model based on readily available data (air quality and meteorological monitoring data, road networks information, latitude), a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) model incorporating both O3 monitoring station data and the land-use mixed model outputs (BME-LUR), and a kriging method model based only on available O3 monitoring station data (BME kriging). We performed leave-one-station-out cross-validation and visually assessed the predictive capability of each model by examining the mean temporal and spatial distributions of the average estimated errors. The BME-LUR was the best predictive model (R2 = 0.653) with the lowest root mean-square error (RMSE ;7.06 ppb), followed by the LUR model (R2 = 0.466, RMSE = 8.747) and the BME kriging model (R2 = 0.414, RMSE = 9.164). Our findings suggest that errors of estimation in the interpolation of O3 concentrations with BME can be greatly reduced by incorporating outputs from a LUR model developed with readily available data.

  3. Phylogenetic systematics and biogeography of hummingbirds: Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses of partitioned data and selection of an appropriate partitioning strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Jimmy A; Witt, Christopher C; Altshuler, Douglas L; Remsen, J V

    2007-10-01

    Hummingbirds are an important model system in avian biology, but to date the group has been the subject of remarkably few phylogenetic investigations. Here we present partitioned Bayesian and maximum likelihood phylogenetic analyses for 151 of approximately 330 species of hummingbirds and 12 outgroup taxa based on two protein-coding mitochondrial genes (ND2 and ND4), flanking tRNAs, and two nuclear introns (AK1 and BFib). We analyzed these data under several partitioning strategies ranging between unpartitioned and a maximum of nine partitions. In order to select a statistically justified partitioning strategy following partitioned Bayesian analysis, we considered four alternative criteria including Bayes factors, modified versions of the Akaike information criterion for small sample sizes (AIC(c)), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and a decision-theoretic methodology (DT). Following partitioned maximum likelihood analyses, we selected a best-fitting strategy using hierarchical likelihood ratio tests (hLRTS), the conventional AICc, BIC, and DT, concluding that the most stringent criterion, the performance-based DT, was the most appropriate methodology for selecting amongst partitioning strategies. In the context of our well-resolved and well-supported phylogenetic estimate, we consider the historical biogeography of hummingbirds using ancestral state reconstructions of (1) primary geographic region of occurrence (i.e., South America, Central America, North America, Greater Antilles, Lesser Antilles), (2) Andean or non-Andean geographic distribution, and (3) minimum elevational occurrence. These analyses indicate that the basal hummingbird assemblages originated in the lowlands of South America, that most of the principle clades of hummingbirds (all but Mountain Gems and possibly Bees) originated on this continent, and that there have been many (at least 30) independent invasions of other primary landmasses, especially Central America.

  4. Wavelet-Based Bayesian Methods for Image Analysis and Automatic Target Recognition

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nowak, Robert

    2001-01-01

    .... We have developed two new techniques. First, we have develop a wavelet-based approach to image restoration and deconvolution problems using Bayesian image models and an alternating-maximation method...

  5. Application of the maximum entropy method to profile analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, N.; Kalceff, W.; Cline, J.P.

    1999-01-01

    Full text: A maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method for analysing crystallite size- and strain-induced x-ray profile broadening is presented. This method treats the problems of determining the specimen profile, crystallite size distribution, and strain distribution in a general way by considering them as inverse problems. A common difficulty faced by many experimenters is their inability to determine a well-conditioned solution of the integral equation, which preserves the positivity of the profile or distribution. We show that the MaxEnt method overcomes this problem, while also enabling a priori information, in the form of a model, to be introduced into it. Additionally, we demonstrate that the method is fully quantitative, in that uncertainties in the solution profile or solution distribution can be determined and used in subsequent calculations, including mean particle sizes and rms strain. An outline of the MaxEnt method is presented for the specific problems of determining the specimen profile and crystallite or strain distributions for the correspondingly broadened profiles. This approach offers an alternative to standard methods such as those of Williamson-Hall and Warren-Averbach. An application of the MaxEnt method is demonstrated in the analysis of alumina size-broadened diffraction data (from NIST, Gaithersburg). It is used to determine the specimen profile and column-length distribution of the scattering domains. Finally, these results are compared with the corresponding Williamson-Hall and Warren-Averbach analyses. Copyright (1999) Australian X-ray Analytical Association Inc

  6. Involving stakeholders in building integrated fisheries models using Bayesian methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet; Mäntyniemi, Samu; Kuikka, Sakari

    2013-01-01

    the potential of the study to contribute to the development of participatory modeling practices. It is concluded that the subjective perspective to knowledge, that is fundamental in Bayesian theory, suits participatory modeling better than a positivist paradigm that seeks the objective truth. The methodology...

  7. An Importance Sampling Simulation Method for Bayesian Decision Feedback Equalizers

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, S.; Hanzo, L.

    2000-01-01

    An importance sampling (IS) simulation technique is presented for evaluating the lower-bound bit error rate (BER) of the Bayesian decision feedback equalizer (DFE) under the assumption of correct decisions being fed back. A design procedure is developed, which chooses appropriate bias vectors for the simulation density to ensure asymptotic efficiency of the IS simulation.

  8. Statistic method of research reactors maximum permissible power calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grosheva, N.A.; Kirsanov, G.A.; Konoplev, K.A.; Chmshkyan, D.V.

    1998-01-01

    The technique for calculating maximum permissible power of a research reactor at which the probability of the thermal-process accident does not exceed the specified value, is presented. The statistical method is used for the calculations. It is regarded that the determining function related to the reactor safety is the known function of the reactor power and many statistically independent values which list includes the reactor process parameters, geometrical characteristics of the reactor core and fuel elements, as well as random factors connected with the reactor specific features. Heat flux density or temperature is taken as a limiting factor. The program realization of the method discussed is briefly described. The results of calculating the PIK reactor margin coefficients for different probabilities of the thermal-process accident are considered as an example. It is shown that the probability of an accident with fuel element melting in hot zone is lower than 10 -8 1 per year for the reactor rated power [ru

  9. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Bayesian Data Analysis in Astronomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sanjib

    2017-08-01

    Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian data analysis has now become the method of choice for analyzing and interpreting data in almost all disciplines of science. In astronomy, over the last decade, we have also seen a steady increase in the number of papers that employ Monte Carlo based Bayesian analysis. New, efficient Monte Carlo based methods are continuously being developed and explored. In this review, we first explain the basics of Bayesian theory and discuss how to set up data analysis problems within this framework. Next, we provide an overview of various Monte Carlo based methods for performing Bayesian data analysis. Finally, we discuss advanced ideas that enable us to tackle complex problems and thus hold great promise for the future. We also distribute downloadable computer software (available at https://github.com/sanjibs/bmcmc/ ) that implements some of the algorithms and examples discussed here.

  10. Bayesian Methods for Predicting the Shape of Chinese Yam in Terms of Key Diameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitsunori Kayano

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes Bayesian methods for the shape estimation of Chinese yam (Dioscorea opposita using a few key diameters of yam. Shape prediction of yam is applicable to determining optimal cutoff positions of a yam for producing seed yams. Our Bayesian method, which is a combination of Bayesian estimation model and predictive model, enables automatic, rapid, and low-cost processing of yam. After the construction of the proposed models using a sample data set in Japan, the models provide whole shape prediction of yam based on only a few key diameters. The Bayesian method performed well on the shape prediction in terms of minimizing the mean squared error between measured shape and the prediction. In particular, a multiple regression method with key diameters at two fixed positions attained the highest performance for shape prediction. We have developed automatic, rapid, and low-cost yam-processing machines based on the Bayesian estimation model and predictive model. Development of such shape prediction approaches, including our Bayesian method, can be a valuable aid in reducing the cost and time in food processing.

  11. Estimation of typhoon rainfall in GaoPing River: A Multivariate Maximum Entropy Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei-Jui, Wu; Hwa-Lung, Yu

    2016-04-01

    The heavy rainfall from typhoons is the main factor of the natural disaster in Taiwan, which causes the significant loss of human lives and properties. Statistically average 3.5 typhoons invade Taiwan every year, and the serious typhoon, Morakot in 2009, impacted Taiwan in recorded history. Because the duration, path and intensity of typhoon, also affect the temporal and spatial rainfall type in specific region , finding the characteristics of the typhoon rainfall type is advantageous when we try to estimate the quantity of rainfall. This study developed a rainfall prediction model and can be divided three parts. First, using the EEOF(extended empirical orthogonal function) to classify the typhoon events, and decompose the standard rainfall type of all stations of each typhoon event into the EOF and PC(principal component). So we can classify the typhoon events which vary similarly in temporally and spatially as the similar typhoon types. Next, according to the classification above, we construct the PDF(probability density function) in different space and time by means of using the multivariate maximum entropy from the first to forth moment statistically. Therefore, we can get the probability of each stations of each time. Final we use the BME(Bayesian Maximum Entropy method) to construct the typhoon rainfall prediction model , and to estimate the rainfall for the case of GaoPing river which located in south of Taiwan.This study could be useful for typhoon rainfall predictions in future and suitable to government for the typhoon disaster prevention .

  12. Review of bayesian statistical analysis methods for cytogenetic radiation biodosimetry, with a practical example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ainsbury, Elizabeth A.; Lloyd, David C.; Rothkamm, Kai; Vinnikov, Volodymyr A.; Maznyk, Nataliya A.; Puig, Pedro; Higueras, Manuel

    2014-01-01

    Classical methods of assessing the uncertainty associated with radiation doses estimated using cytogenetic techniques are now extremely well defined. However, several authors have suggested that a Bayesian approach to uncertainty estimation may be more suitable for cytogenetic data, which are inherently stochastic in nature. The Bayesian analysis framework focuses on identification of probability distributions (for yield of aberrations or estimated dose), which also means that uncertainty is an intrinsic part of the analysis, rather than an 'afterthought'. In this paper Bayesian, as well as some more advanced classical, data analysis methods for radiation cytogenetics are reviewed that have been proposed in the literature. A practical overview of Bayesian cytogenetic dose estimation is also presented, with worked examples from the literature. (authors)

  13. Evidence reasoning method for constructing conditional probability tables in a Bayesian network of multimorbidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Yuanwei; Guo, Yubin

    2015-01-01

    The intrinsic mechanism of multimorbidity is difficult to recognize and prediction and diagnosis are difficult to carry out accordingly. Bayesian networks can help to diagnose multimorbidity in health care, but it is difficult to obtain the conditional probability table (CPT) because of the lack of clinically statistical data. Today, expert knowledge and experience are increasingly used in training Bayesian networks in order to help predict or diagnose diseases, but the CPT in Bayesian networks is usually irrational or ineffective for ignoring realistic constraints especially in multimorbidity. In order to solve these problems, an evidence reasoning (ER) approach is employed to extract and fuse inference data from experts using a belief distribution and recursive ER algorithm, based on which evidence reasoning method for constructing conditional probability tables in Bayesian network of multimorbidity is presented step by step. A multimorbidity numerical example is used to demonstrate the method and prove its feasibility and application. Bayesian network can be determined as long as the inference assessment is inferred by each expert according to his/her knowledge or experience. Our method is more effective than existing methods for extracting expert inference data accurately and is fused effectively for constructing CPTs in a Bayesian network of multimorbidity.

  14. Bayesian inference method for stochastic damage accumulation modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Xiaomo; Yuan, Yong; Liu, Xian

    2013-01-01

    Damage accumulation based reliability model plays an increasingly important role in successful realization of condition based maintenance for complicated engineering systems. This paper developed a Bayesian framework to establish stochastic damage accumulation model from historical inspection data, considering data uncertainty. Proportional hazards modeling technique is developed to model the nonlinear effect of multiple influencing factors on system reliability. Different from other hazard modeling techniques such as normal linear regression model, the approach does not require any distribution assumption for the hazard model, and can be applied for a wide variety of distribution models. A Bayesian network is created to represent the nonlinear proportional hazards models and to estimate model parameters by Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches are developed to assess the validity of the established damage accumulation model. Anderson–Darling goodness-of-fit test is employed to perform the normality test, and Box–Cox transformation approach is utilized to convert the non-normality data into normal distribution for hypothesis testing in quantitative model validation. The methodology is illustrated with the seepage data collected from real-world subway tunnels.

  15. Evaluation of errors in prior mean and variance in the estimation of integrated circuit failure rates using Bayesian methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, B. C.

    1972-01-01

    The critical point of any Bayesian analysis concerns the choice and quantification of the prior information. The effects of prior data on a Bayesian analysis are studied. Comparisons of the maximum likelihood estimator, the Bayesian estimator, and the known failure rate are presented. The results of the many simulated trails are then analyzed to show the region of criticality for prior information being supplied to the Bayesian estimator. In particular, effects of prior mean and variance are determined as a function of the amount of test data available.

  16. Application of the maximum entropy method to dynamical fermion simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clowser, Jonathan

    This thesis presents results for spectral functions extracted from imaginary-time correlation functions obtained from Monte Carlo simulations using the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM). The advantages this method are (i) no a priori assumptions or parametrisations of the spectral function are needed, (ii) a unique solution exists and (iii) the statistical significance of the resulting image can be quantitatively analysed. The Gross Neveu model in d = 3 spacetime dimensions (GNM3) is a particularly interesting model to study with the MEM because at T = 0 it has a broken phase with a rich spectrum of mesonic bound states and a symmetric phase where there are resonances. Results for the elementary fermion, the Goldstone boson (pion), the sigma, the massive pseudoscalar meson and the symmetric phase resonances are presented. UKQCD Nf = 2 dynamical QCD data is also studied with MEM. Results are compared to those found from the quenched approximation, where the effects of quark loops in the QCD vacuum are neglected, to search for sea-quark effects in the extracted spectral functions. Information has been extract from the difficult axial spatial and scalar as well as the pseudoscalar, vector and axial temporal channels. An estimate for the non-singlet scalar mass in the chiral limit is given which is in agreement with the experimental value of Mao = 985 MeV.

  17. The continual reassessment method: comparison of Bayesian stopping rules for dose-ranging studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zohar, S; Chevret, S

    2001-10-15

    The continual reassessment method (CRM) provides a Bayesian estimation of the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in phase I clinical trials and is also used to estimate the minimal efficacy dose (MED) in phase II clinical trials. In this paper we propose Bayesian stopping rules for the CRM, based on either posterior or predictive probability distributions that can be applied sequentially during the trial. These rules aim at early detection of either the mis-choice of dose range or a prefixed gain in the point estimate or accuracy of estimated probability of response associated with the MTD (or MED). They were compared through a simulation study under six situations that could represent the underlying unknown dose-response (either toxicity or failure) relationship, in terms of sample size, probability of correct selection and bias of the response probability associated to the MTD (or MED). Our results show that the stopping rules act correctly, with early stopping by using the two first rules based on the posterior distribution when the actual underlying dose-response relationship is far from that initially supposed, while the rules based on predictive gain functions provide a discontinuation of inclusions whatever the actual dose-response curve after 20 patients on average, that is, depending mostly on the accumulated data. The stopping rules were then applied to a data set from a dose-ranging phase II clinical trial aiming at estimating the MED dose of midazolam in the sedation of infants during cardiac catheterization. All these findings suggest the early use of the two first rules to detect a mis-choice of dose range, while they confirm the requirement of including at least 20 patients at the same dose to reach an accurate estimate of MTD (MED). A two-stage design is under study. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Maximum entropy method approach to the θ term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imachi, Masahiro; Shinno, Yasuhiko; Yoneyama, Hiroshi

    2004-01-01

    In Monte Carlo simulations of lattice field theory with a θ term, one confronts the complex weight problem, or the sign problem. This is circumvented by performing the Fourier transform of the topological charge distribution P(Q). This procedure, however, causes flattening phenomenon of the free energy f(θ), which makes study of the phase structure unfeasible. In order to treat this problem, we apply the maximum entropy method (MEM) to a Gaussian form of P(Q), which serves as a good example to test whether the MEM can be applied effectively to the θ term. We study the case with flattering as well as that without flattening. In the latter case, the results of the MEM agree with those obtained from the direct application of the Fourier transform. For the former, the MEM gives a smoother f(θ) than that of the Fourier transform. Among various default models investigated, the images which yield the least error do not show flattening, although some others cannot be excluded given the uncertainly related to statistical error. (author)

  19. Stability of maximum-likelihood-based clustering methods: exploring the backbone of classifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mungan, Muhittin; Ramasco, José J

    2010-01-01

    Components of complex systems are often classified according to the way they interact with each other. In graph theory such groups are known as clusters or communities. Many different techniques have been recently proposed to detect them, some of which involve inference methods using either Bayesian or maximum likelihood approaches. In this paper, we study a statistical model designed for detecting clusters based on connection similarity. The basic assumption of the model is that the graph was generated by a certain grouping of the nodes and an expectation maximization algorithm is employed to infer that grouping. We show that the method admits further development to yield a stability analysis of the groupings that quantifies the extent to which each node influences its neighbors' group membership. Our approach naturally allows for the identification of the key elements responsible for the grouping and their resilience to changes in the network. Given the generality of the assumptions underlying the statistical model, such nodes are likely to play special roles in the original system. We illustrate this point by analyzing several empirical networks for which further information about the properties of the nodes is available. The search and identification of stabilizing nodes constitutes thus a novel technique to characterize the relevance of nodes in complex networks

  20. Analyzing bioassay data using Bayesian methods-A primer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, G.; Inkret, W.C.; Schillaci, M.E.

    1997-01-01

    The classical statistics approach used in health physics for the interpretation of measurements is deficient in that it does not allow for the consideration of needle in a haystack effects, where events that are rare in a population are being detected. In fact, this is often the case in health physics measurements, and the false positive fraction is often very large using the prescriptions of classical statistics. Bayesian statistics provides an objective methodology to ensure acceptably small false positive fractions. The authors present the basic methodology and a heuristic discussion. Examples are given using numerically generated and real bioassay data (Tritium). Various analytical models are used to fit the prior probability distribution, in order to test the sensitivity to choice of model. Parametric studies show that the normalized Bayesian decision level k α -L c /σ 0 , where σ 0 is the measurement uncertainty for zero true amount, is usually in the range from 3 to 5 depending on the true positive rate. Four times σ 0 rather than approximately two times σ 0 , as in classical statistics, would often seem a better choice for the decision level

  1. Spatiotemporal modeling of PM2.5 concentrations at the national scale combining land use regression and Bayesian maximum entropy in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Li; Gao, Shuang; Zhang, Hui; Sun, Yanling; Ma, Zhenxing; Vedal, Sverre; Mao, Jian; Bai, Zhipeng

    2018-05-03

    Concentrations of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) interpolation of the LUR space-time residuals were developed to estimate the PM 2.5 concentrations on a national scale in China. This hybrid model could potentially provide more valid predictions than a commonly-used LUR model. The LUR/BME model had good performance characteristics, with R 2  = 0.82 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.6 μg/m 3 . Prediction errors of the LUR/BME model were reduced by incorporating soft data accounting for data uncertainty, with the R 2 increasing by 6%. The performance of LUR/BME is better than OK/BME. The LUR/BME model is the most accurate fine spatial scale PM 2.5 model developed to date for China. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. BAYESIAN DATA AUGMENTATION DOSE FINDING WITH CONTINUAL REASSESSMENT METHOD AND DELAYED TOXICITY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Suyu; Yin, Guosheng; Yuan, Ying

    2014-01-01

    A major practical impediment when implementing adaptive dose-finding designs is that the toxicity outcome used by the decision rules may not be observed shortly after the initiation of the treatment. To address this issue, we propose the data augmentation continual re-assessment method (DA-CRM) for dose finding. By naturally treating the unobserved toxicities as missing data, we show that such missing data are nonignorable in the sense that the missingness depends on the unobserved outcomes. The Bayesian data augmentation approach is used to sample both the missing data and model parameters from their posterior full conditional distributions. We evaluate the performance of the DA-CRM through extensive simulation studies, and also compare it with other existing methods. The results show that the proposed design satisfactorily resolves the issues related to late-onset toxicities and possesses desirable operating characteristics: treating patients more safely, and also selecting the maximum tolerated dose with a higher probability. The new DA-CRM is illustrated with two phase I cancer clinical trials. PMID:24707327

  3. A comparison of methods of predicting maximum oxygen uptake.

    OpenAIRE

    Grant, S; Corbett, K; Amjad, A M; Wilson, J; Aitchison, T

    1995-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the results from a Cooper walk run test, a multistage shuttle run test, and a submaximal cycle test with the direct measurement of maximum oxygen uptake on a treadmill. Three predictive tests of maximum oxygen uptake--linear extrapolation of heart rate of VO2 collected from a submaximal cycle ergometer test (predicted L/E), the Cooper 12 min walk, run test, and a multi-stage progressive shuttle run test (MST)--were performed by 22 young healthy males (mean...

  4. Review of Reliability-Based Design Optimization Approach and Its Integration with Bayesian Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiangnan

    2018-03-01

    A lot of uncertain factors lie in practical engineering, such as external load environment, material property, geometrical shape, initial condition, boundary condition, etc. Reliability method measures the structural safety condition and determine the optimal design parameter combination based on the probabilistic theory. Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) is the most commonly used approach to minimize the structural cost or other performance under uncertainty variables which combines the reliability theory and optimization. However, it cannot handle the various incomplete information. The Bayesian approach is utilized to incorporate this kind of incomplete information in its uncertainty quantification. In this paper, the RBDO approach and its integration with Bayesian method are introduced.

  5. Safety assessment of infrastructures using a new Bayesian Monte Carlo method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rajabali Nejad, Mohammadreza; Demirbilek, Z.

    2011-01-01

    A recently developed Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) method and its application to safety assessment of structures are described in this paper. We use a one-dimensional BMC method that was proposed in 2009 by Rajabalinejad in order to develop a weighted logical dependence between successive Monte Carlo

  6. Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herskovits, Edward H.; Gerring, Joan P.

    2003-01-01

    Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

  7. Bayesian Methods for the Physical Sciences. Learning from Examples in Astronomy and Physics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreon, Stefano; Weaver, Brian

    2015-05-01

    -to-collect events or objects are over-represented in samples and difficult-to-collect are under-represented if not missing altogether. In this chapter we show how to account for non-random data collection to infer the properties of the population from the studied sample. Chapter 8: In this chapter we introduce regression models, i.e., how to fit (regress) one, or more quantities, against each other through a functional relationship and estimate any unknown parameters that dictate this relationship. Questions of interest include: how to deal with samples affected by selection effects? How does a rich data structure influence the fitted parameters? And what about non-linear multiple-predictor fits, upper/lower limits, measurements errors of different amplitudes and an intrinsic variety in the studied populations or an extra source of variability? A number of examples illustrate how to answer these questions and how to predict the value of an unavailable quantity by exploiting the existence of a trend with another, available, quantity. Chapter 9: This chapter provides some advice on how the careful scientist should perform model checking and sensitivity analysis, i.e., how to answer the following questions: is the considered model at odds with the current available data (the fitted data), for example because it is over-simplified compared to some specific complexity pointed out by the data? Furthermore, are the data informative about the quantity being measured or are results sensibly dependent on details of the fitted model? And, finally, what about if assumptions are uncertain? A number of examples illustrate how to answer these questions. Chapter 10: This chapter compares the performance of Bayesian methods against simple, non-Bayesian alternatives, such as maximum likelihood, minimal chi square, ordinary and weighted least square, bivariate correlated errors and intrinsic scatter, and robust estimates of location and scale. Performances are evaluated in terms of quality of the

  8. Elemental composition of cosmic rays using a maximum likelihood method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruddick, K.

    1996-01-01

    We present a progress report on our attempts to determine the composition of cosmic rays in the knee region of the energy spectrum. We have used three different devices to measure properties of the extensive air showers produced by primary cosmic rays: the Soudan 2 underground detector measures the muon flux deep underground, a proportional tube array samples shower density at the surface of the earth, and a Cherenkov array observes light produced high in the atmosphere. We have begun maximum likelihood fits to these measurements with the hope of determining the nuclear mass number A on an event by event basis. (orig.)

  9. The Relevance Voxel Machine (RVoxM): A Bayesian Method for Image-Based Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabuncu, Mert R.; Van Leemput, Koen

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the Relevance VoxelMachine (RVoxM), a Bayesian multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) algorithm that is specifically designed for making predictions based on image data. In contrast to generic MVPA algorithms that have often been used for this purpose, the method is designed to ...

  10. A novel Bayesian learning method for information aggregation in modular neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Pan; Xu, Lida; Zhou, Shang-Ming

    2010-01-01

    Modular neural network is a popular neural network model which has many successful applications. In this paper, a sequential Bayesian learning (SBL) is proposed for modular neural networks aiming at efficiently aggregating the outputs of members of the ensemble. The experimental results on eight...... benchmark problems have demonstrated that the proposed method can perform information aggregation efficiently in data modeling....

  11. A Bayesian MCMC method for point process models with intractable normalising constants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berthelsen, Kasper Klitgaard; Møller, Jesper

    2004-01-01

    to simulate from the "unknown distribution", perfect simulation algorithms become useful. We illustrate the method in cases whre the likelihood is given by a Markov point process model. Particularly, we consider semi-parametric Bayesian inference in connection to both inhomogeneous Markov point process models...... and pairwise interaction point processes....

  12. METHOD FOR DETERMINING THE MAXIMUM ARRANGEMENT FACTOR OF FOOTWEAR PARTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DRIŞCU Mariana

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available By classic methodology, designing footwear is a very complex and laborious activity. That is because classic methodology requires many graphic executions using manual means, which consume a lot of the producer’s time. Moreover, the results of this classical methodology may contain many inaccuracies with the most unpleasant consequences for the footwear producer. Thus, the costumer that buys a footwear product by taking into consideration the characteristics written on the product (size, width can notice after a period that the product has flaws because of the inadequate design. In order to avoid this kind of situations, the strictest scientific criteria must be followed when one designs a footwear product. The decisive step in this way has been made some time ago, when, as a result of powerful technical development and massive implementation of electronical calculus systems and informatics, This paper presents a product software for determining all possible arrangements of a footwear product’s reference points, in order to automatically acquire the maximum arrangement factor. The user multiplies the pattern in order to find the economic arrangement for the reference points. In this purpose, the user must probe few arrangement variants, in the translation and rotate-translation system. The same process is used in establishing the arrangement factor for the two points of reference of the designed footwear product. After probing several variants of arrangement in the translation and rotation and translation systems, the maximum arrangement factors are chosen. This allows the user to estimate the material wastes.

  13. A Bayes-Maximum Entropy method for multi-sensor data fusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beckerman, M.

    1991-01-01

    In this paper we introduce a Bayes-Maximum Entropy formalism for multi-sensor data fusion, and present an application of this methodology to the fusion of ultrasound and visual sensor data as acquired by a mobile robot. In our approach the principle of maximum entropy is applied to the construction of priors and likelihoods from the data. Distances between ultrasound and visual points of interest in a dual representation are used to define Gibbs likelihood distributions. Both one- and two-dimensional likelihoods are presented, and cast into a form which makes explicit their dependence upon the mean. The Bayesian posterior distributions are used to test a null hypothesis, and Maximum Entropy Maps used for navigation are updated using the resulting information from the dual representation. 14 refs., 9 figs.

  14. An efficient Bayesian inference approach to inverse problems based on an adaptive sparse grid collocation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Xiang; Zabaras, Nicholas

    2009-01-01

    A new approach to modeling inverse problems using a Bayesian inference method is introduced. The Bayesian approach considers the unknown parameters as random variables and seeks the probabilistic distribution of the unknowns. By introducing the concept of the stochastic prior state space to the Bayesian formulation, we reformulate the deterministic forward problem as a stochastic one. The adaptive hierarchical sparse grid collocation (ASGC) method is used for constructing an interpolant to the solution of the forward model in this prior space which is large enough to capture all the variability/uncertainty in the posterior distribution of the unknown parameters. This solution can be considered as a function of the random unknowns and serves as a stochastic surrogate model for the likelihood calculation. Hierarchical Bayesian formulation is used to derive the posterior probability density function (PPDF). The spatial model is represented as a convolution of a smooth kernel and a Markov random field. The state space of the PPDF is explored using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms to obtain statistics of the unknowns. The likelihood calculation is performed by directly sampling the approximate stochastic solution obtained through the ASGC method. The technique is assessed on two nonlinear inverse problems: source inversion and permeability estimation in flow through porous media

  15. Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji

    2018-01-01

    An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.

  16. Heuristic method for searching global maximum of multimodal unknown function

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamei, K; Araki, Y; Inoue, K

    1983-06-01

    The method is composed of three kinds of searches. They are called g (grasping)-mode search, f (finding)-mode search and c (confirming)-mode search. In the g-mode search and the c-mode search, a heuristic method is used which was extracted from search behaviors of human subjects. In f-mode search, the simplex method is used which is well known as a search method for unimodal unknown function. Each mode search and its transitions are shown in the form of flowchart. The numerical results for one-dimensional through six-dimensional multimodal functions prove the proposed search method to be an effective one. 11 references.

  17. pplacer: linear time maximum-likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic placement of sequences onto a fixed reference tree

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kodner Robin B

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Likelihood-based phylogenetic inference is generally considered to be the most reliable classification method for unknown sequences. However, traditional likelihood-based phylogenetic methods cannot be applied to large volumes of short reads from next-generation sequencing due to computational complexity issues and lack of phylogenetic signal. "Phylogenetic placement," where a reference tree is fixed and the unknown query sequences are placed onto the tree via a reference alignment, is a way to bring the inferential power offered by likelihood-based approaches to large data sets. Results This paper introduces pplacer, a software package for phylogenetic placement and subsequent visualization. The algorithm can place twenty thousand short reads on a reference tree of one thousand taxa per hour per processor, has essentially linear time and memory complexity in the number of reference taxa, and is easy to run in parallel. Pplacer features calculation of the posterior probability of a placement on an edge, which is a statistically rigorous way of quantifying uncertainty on an edge-by-edge basis. It also can inform the user of the positional uncertainty for query sequences by calculating expected distance between placement locations, which is crucial in the estimation of uncertainty with a well-sampled reference tree. The software provides visualizations using branch thickness and color to represent number of placements and their uncertainty. A simulation study using reads generated from 631 COG alignments shows a high level of accuracy for phylogenetic placement over a wide range of alignment diversity, and the power of edge uncertainty estimates to measure placement confidence. Conclusions Pplacer enables efficient phylogenetic placement and subsequent visualization, making likelihood-based phylogenetics methodology practical for large collections of reads; it is freely available as source code, binaries, and a web service.

  18. Improving the reliability of POD curves in NDI methods using a Bayesian inversion approach for uncertainty quantification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Abdessalem, A.; Jenson, F.; Calmon, P.

    2016-02-01

    This contribution provides an example of the possible advantages of adopting a Bayesian inversion approach to uncertainty quantification in nondestructive inspection methods. In such problem, the uncertainty associated to the random parameters is not always known and needs to be characterised from scattering signal measurements. The uncertainties may then correctly propagated in order to determine a reliable probability of detection curve. To this end, we establish a general Bayesian framework based on a non-parametric maximum likelihood function formulation and some priors from expert knowledge. However, the presented inverse problem is time-consuming and computationally intensive. To cope with this difficulty, we replace the real model by a surrogate one in order to speed-up the model evaluation and to make the problem to be computationally feasible for implementation. The least squares support vector regression is adopted as metamodelling technique due to its robustness to deal with non-linear problems. We illustrate the usefulness of this methodology through the control of tube with enclosed defect using ultrasonic inspection method.

  19. A Bayesian method to estimate the neutron response matrix of a single crystal CVD diamond detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reginatto, Marcel; Araque, Jorge Guerrero; Nolte, Ralf; Zbořil, Miroslav; Zimbal, Andreas; Gagnon-Moisan, Francis

    2015-01-01

    Detectors made from artificial chemical vapor deposition (CVD) single crystal diamond are very promising candidates for applications where high resolution neutron spectrometry in very high neutron fluxes is required, for example in fusion research. We propose a Bayesian method to estimate the neutron response function of the detector for a continuous range of neutron energies (in our case, 10 MeV ≤ E n ≤ 16 MeV) based on a few measurements with quasi-monoenergetic neutrons. This method is needed because a complete set of measurements is not available and the alternative approach of using responses based on Monte Carlo calculations is not feasible. Our approach uses Bayesian signal-background separation techniques and radial basis function interpolation methods. We present the analysis of data measured at the PTB accelerator facility PIAF. The method is quite general and it can be applied to other particle detectors with similar characteristics

  20. A fully Bayesian method for jointly fitting instrumental calibration and X-ray spectral models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Jin; Yu, Yaming; Van Dyk, David A.; Kashyap, Vinay L.; Siemiginowska, Aneta; Drake, Jeremy; Ratzlaff, Pete; Connors, Alanna; Meng, Xiao-Li

    2014-01-01

    Owing to a lack of robust principled methods, systematic instrumental uncertainties have generally been ignored in astrophysical data analysis despite wide recognition of the importance of including them. Ignoring calibration uncertainty can cause bias in the estimation of source model parameters and can lead to underestimation of the variance of these estimates. We previously introduced a pragmatic Bayesian method to address this problem. The method is 'pragmatic' in that it introduced an ad hoc technique that simplified computation by neglecting the potential information in the data for narrowing the uncertainty for the calibration product. Following that work, we use a principal component analysis to efficiently represent the uncertainty of the effective area of an X-ray (or γ-ray) telescope. Here, however, we leverage this representation to enable a principled, fully Bayesian method that coherently accounts for the calibration uncertainty in high-energy spectral analysis. In this setting, the method is compared with standard analysis techniques and the pragmatic Bayesian method. The advantage of the fully Bayesian method is that it allows the data to provide information not only for estimation of the source parameters but also for the calibration product—here the effective area, conditional on the adopted spectral model. In this way, it can yield more accurate and efficient estimates of the source parameters along with valid estimates of their uncertainty. Provided that the source spectrum can be accurately described by a parameterized model, this method allows rigorous inference about the effective area by quantifying which possible curves are most consistent with the data.

  1. Estimating Steatosis Prevalence in Overweight and Obese Children: Comparison of Bayesian Small Area and Direct Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Reza Khalkhali

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background Often, there is no access to sufficient sample size to estimate the prevalence using the method of direct estimator in all areas. The aim of this study was to compare small area’s Bayesian method and direct method in estimating the prevalence of steatosis in obese and overweight children. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, was conducted on 150 overweight and obese children aged 2 to 15 years referred to the Children's digestive clinic of Urmia University of Medical Sciences- Iran, in 2013. After Body mass index (BMI calculation, children with overweight and obese were assessed in terms of primary tests of obesity screening. Then children with steatosis confirmed by abdominal Ultrasonography, were referred to the laboratory for doing further tests. Steatosis prevalence was estimated by direct and Bayesian method and their efficiency were evaluated using mean-square error Jackknife method. The study data was analyzed using the open BUGS3.1.2 and R2.15.2 software. Results: The findings indicated that estimation of steatosis prevalence in children using Bayesian and direct methods were between 0.3098 to 0.493, and 0.355 to 0.560 respectively, in Health Districts; 0.3098 to 0.502, and 0.355 to 0.550 in Education Districts; 0.321 to 0.582, and 0.357 to 0.615 in age groups; 0.313 to 0.429, and 0.383 to 0.536 in sex groups. In general, according to the results, mean-square error of Bayesian estimation was smaller than direct estimation (P

  2. Bayesian biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Lesaffre, Emmanuel

    2012-01-01

    The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd

  3. A Bayesian reliability evaluation method with integrated accelerated degradation testing and field information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Lizhi; Pan, Rong; Li, Xiaoyang; Jiang, Tongmin

    2013-01-01

    Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) is a common approach in reliability prediction, especially for products with high reliability. However, oftentimes the laboratory condition of ADT is different from the field condition; thus, to predict field failure, one need to calibrate the prediction made by using ADT data. In this paper a Bayesian evaluation method is proposed to integrate the ADT data from laboratory with the failure data from field. Calibration factors are introduced to calibrate the difference between the lab and the field conditions so as to predict a product's actual field reliability more accurately. The information fusion and statistical inference procedure are carried out through a Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The proposed method is demonstrated by two examples and the sensitivity analysis to prior distribution assumption

  4. A method for crack sizing using Bayesian inference arising in eddy current testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kojima, Fumio; Kikuchi, Mitsuhiro

    2008-01-01

    This paper is concerned with a sizing methodology of crack using Bayesian inference arising in eddy current testing. There is often uncertainty about data through quantitative measurements of nondestructive testing and this can yield misleading inference of crack sizing at on-site monitoring. In this paper, we propose optimal strategies of measurements in eddy current testing using Bayesian prior-to-posteriori analysis. First our likelihood functional is given by Gaussian distribution with the measurement model based on the hybrid use of finite and boundary element methods. Secondly, given a priori distributions of crack sizing, we propose a method for estimating the region of interest for sizing cracks. Finally an optimal sensing method is demonstrated using our idea. (author)

  5. Comparison of Bayesian clustering and edge detection methods for inferring boundaries in landscape genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safner, T.; Miller, M.P.; McRae, B.H.; Fortin, M.-J.; Manel, S.

    2011-01-01

    Recently, techniques available for identifying clusters of individuals or boundaries between clusters using genetic data from natural populations have expanded rapidly. Consequently, there is a need to evaluate these different techniques. We used spatially-explicit simulation models to compare three spatial Bayesian clustering programs and two edge detection methods. Spatially-structured populations were simulated where a continuous population was subdivided by barriers. We evaluated the ability of each method to correctly identify boundary locations while varying: (i) time after divergence, (ii) strength of isolation by distance, (iii) level of genetic diversity, and (iv) amount of gene flow across barriers. To further evaluate the methods' effectiveness to detect genetic clusters in natural populations, we used previously published data on North American pumas and a European shrub. Our results show that with simulated and empirical data, the Bayesian spatial clustering algorithms outperformed direct edge detection methods. All methods incorrectly detected boundaries in the presence of strong patterns of isolation by distance. Based on this finding, we support the application of Bayesian spatial clustering algorithms for boundary detection in empirical datasets, with necessary tests for the influence of isolation by distance. ?? 2011 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

  6. Bayesian Method for Building Frequent Landsat-Like NDVI Datasets by Integrating MODIS and Landsat NDVI

    OpenAIRE

    Limin Liao; Jinling Song; Jindi Wang; Zhiqiang Xiao; Jian Wang

    2016-01-01

    Studies related to vegetation dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes often require Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets with both high spatial resolution and frequent coverage, which cannot be satisfied by a single sensor due to technical limitations. In this study, we propose a new method called NDVI-Bayesian Spatiotemporal Fusion Model (NDVI-BSFM) for accurately and effectively building frequent high spatial resolution Landsat-like NDVI datasets by integrating Moderate Resol...

  7. Using hierarchical Bayesian methods to examine the tools of decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Michael D. Lee; Benjamin R. Newell

    2011-01-01

    Hierarchical Bayesian methods offer a principled and comprehensive way to relate psychological models to data. Here we use them to model the patterns of information search, stopping and deciding in a simulated binary comparison judgment task. The simulation involves 20 subjects making 100 forced choice comparisons about the relative magnitudes of two objects (which of two German cities has more inhabitants). Two worked-examples show how hierarchical models can be developed to account for and ...

  8. A Bayesian method for construction of Markov models to describe dynamics on various time-scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rains, Emily K; Andersen, Hans C

    2010-10-14

    The dynamics of many biological processes of interest, such as the folding of a protein, are slow and complicated enough that a single molecular dynamics simulation trajectory of the entire process is difficult to obtain in any reasonable amount of time. Moreover, one such simulation may not be sufficient to develop an understanding of the mechanism of the process, and multiple simulations may be necessary. One approach to circumvent this computational barrier is the use of Markov state models. These models are useful because they can be constructed using data from a large number of shorter simulations instead of a single long simulation. This paper presents a new Bayesian method for the construction of Markov models from simulation data. A Markov model is specified by (τ,P,T), where τ is the mesoscopic time step, P is a partition of configuration space into mesostates, and T is an N(P)×N(P) transition rate matrix for transitions between the mesostates in one mesoscopic time step, where N(P) is the number of mesostates in P. The method presented here is different from previous Bayesian methods in several ways. (1) The method uses Bayesian analysis to determine the partition as well as the transition probabilities. (2) The method allows the construction of a Markov model for any chosen mesoscopic time-scale τ. (3) It constructs Markov models for which the diagonal elements of T are all equal to or greater than 0.5. Such a model will be called a "consistent mesoscopic Markov model" (CMMM). Such models have important advantages for providing an understanding of the dynamics on a mesoscopic time-scale. The Bayesian method uses simulation data to find a posterior probability distribution for (P,T) for any chosen τ. This distribution can be regarded as the Bayesian probability that the kinetics observed in the atomistic simulation data on the mesoscopic time-scale τ was generated by the CMMM specified by (P,T). An optimization algorithm is used to find the most

  9. Development of an Anisotropic Geological-Based Land Use Regression and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Model for Estimating Groundwater Radon across Northing Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messier, K. P.; Serre, M. L.

    2015-12-01

    Radon (222Rn) is a naturally occurring chemically inert, colorless, and odorless radioactive gas produced from the decay of uranium (238U), which is ubiquitous in rocks and soils worldwide. Exposure to 222Rn is likely the second leading cause of lung cancer after cigarette smoking via inhalation; however, exposure through untreated groundwater is also a contributing factor to both inhalation and ingestion routes. A land use regression (LUR) model for groundwater 222Rn with anisotropic geological and 238U based explanatory variables is developed, which helps elucidate the factors contributing to elevated 222Rn across North Carolina. Geological and uranium based variables are constructed in elliptical buffers surrounding each observation such that they capture the lateral geometric anisotropy present in groundwater 222Rn. Moreover, geological features are defined at three different geological spatial scales to allow the model to distinguish between large area and small area effects of geology on groundwater 222Rn. The LUR is also integrated into the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) geostatistical framework to increase accuracy and produce a point-level LUR-BME model of groundwater 222Rn across North Carolina including prediction uncertainty. The LUR-BME model of groundwater 222Rn results in a leave-one out cross-validation of 0.46 (Pearson correlation coefficient= 0.68), effectively predicting within the spatial covariance range. Modeled results of 222Rn concentrations show variability among Intrusive Felsic geological formations likely due to average bedrock 238U defined on the basis of overlying stream-sediment 238U concentrations that is a widely distributed consistently analyzed point-source data.

  10. Introduction to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2017-01-01

    There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...

  11. Artificial Intelligence: Bayesian versus Heuristic Method for Diagnostic Decision Support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elkin, Peter L; Schlegel, Daniel R; Anderson, Michael; Komm, Jordan; Ficheur, Gregoire; Bisson, Leslie

    2018-04-01

    Evoking strength is one of the important contributions of the field of Biomedical Informatics to the discipline of Artificial Intelligence. The University at Buffalo's Orthopedics Department wanted to create an expert system to assist patients with self-diagnosis of knee problems and to thereby facilitate referral to the right orthopedic subspecialist. They had two independent sports medicine physicians review 469 cases. A board-certified orthopedic sports medicine practitioner, L.B., reviewed any disagreements until a gold standard diagnosis was reached. For each case, the patients entered 126 potential answers to 26 questions into a Web interface. These were modeled by an expert sports medicine physician and the answers were reviewed by L.B. For each finding, the clinician specified the sensitivity (term frequency) and both specificity (Sp) and the heuristic evoking strength (ES). Heuristics are methods of reasoning with only partial evidence. An expert system was constructed that reflected the posttest odds of disease-ranked list for each case. We compare the accuracy of using Sp to that of using ES (original model, p  < 0.0008; term importance * disease importance [DItimesTI] model, p  < 0.0001: Wilcoxon ranked sum test). For patient referral assignment, Sp in the DItimesTI model was superior to the use of ES. By the fifth diagnosis, the advantage was lost and so there is no difference between the techniques when serving as a reminder system. Schattauer GmbH Stuttgart.

  12. A new method for E-government procurement using collaborative filtering and Bayesian approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shuai; Xi, Chengyu; Wang, Yan; Zhang, Wenyu; Chen, Yanhong

    2013-01-01

    Nowadays, as the Internet services increase faster than ever before, government systems are reinvented as E-government services. Therefore, government procurement sectors have to face challenges brought by the explosion of service information. This paper presents a novel method for E-government procurement (eGP) to search for the optimal procurement scheme (OPS). Item-based collaborative filtering and Bayesian approach are used to evaluate and select the candidate services to get the top-M recommendations such that the involved computation load can be alleviated. A trapezoidal fuzzy number similarity algorithm is applied to support the item-based collaborative filtering and Bayesian approach, since some of the services' attributes can be hardly expressed as certain and static values but only be easily represented as fuzzy values. A prototype system is built and validated with an illustrative example from eGP to confirm the feasibility of our approach.

  13. A New Method for E-Government Procurement Using Collaborative Filtering and Bayesian Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuai Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, as the Internet services increase faster than ever before, government systems are reinvented as E-government services. Therefore, government procurement sectors have to face challenges brought by the explosion of service information. This paper presents a novel method for E-government procurement (eGP to search for the optimal procurement scheme (OPS. Item-based collaborative filtering and Bayesian approach are used to evaluate and select the candidate services to get the top-M recommendations such that the involved computation load can be alleviated. A trapezoidal fuzzy number similarity algorithm is applied to support the item-based collaborative filtering and Bayesian approach, since some of the services’ attributes can be hardly expressed as certain and static values but only be easily represented as fuzzy values. A prototype system is built and validated with an illustrative example from eGP to confirm the feasibility of our approach.

  14. Power spectrum of the geomagnetic field by the maximum entropy method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kantor, I.J.; Trivedi, N.B.

    1980-01-01

    Monthly mean values of Vassouras (state of Rio de Janeiro) geomagnetic field are analyzed us the maximum entropy method. The method is described and compared with other methods of spectral analysis, and its advantages and disadvantages are presented. (Author) [pt

  15. A method for calculating Bayesian uncertainties on internal doses resulting from complex occupational exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puncher, M.; Birchall, A.; Bull, R. K.

    2012-01-01

    Estimating uncertainties on doses from bioassay data is of interest in epidemiology studies that estimate cancer risk from occupational exposures to radionuclides. Bayesian methods provide a logical framework to calculate these uncertainties. However, occupational exposures often consist of many intakes, and this can make the Bayesian calculation computationally intractable. This paper describes a novel strategy for increasing the computational speed of the calculation by simplifying the intake pattern to a single composite intake, termed as complex intake regime (CIR). In order to assess whether this approximation is accurate and fast enough for practical purposes, the method is implemented by the Weighted Likelihood Monte Carlo Sampling (WeLMoS) method and evaluated by comparing its performance with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The MCMC method gives the full solution (all intakes are independent), but is very computationally intensive to apply routinely. Posterior distributions of model parameter values, intakes and doses are calculated for a representative sample of plutonium workers from the United Kingdom Atomic Energy cohort using the WeLMoS method with the CIR and the MCMC method. The distributions are in good agreement: posterior means and Q 0.025 and Q 0.975 quantiles are typically within 20 %. Furthermore, the WeLMoS method using the CIR converges quickly: a typical case history takes around 10-20 min on a fast workstation, whereas the MCMC method took around 12-hr. The advantages and disadvantages of the method are discussed. (authors)

  16. Bayesian methods

    OpenAIRE

    BAUWENS, Luc; KOROBILIS, Dimitris

    2011-01-01

    This comprehensive Handbook presents the current state of art in the theory and methodology of macroeconomic data analysis. It is intended as a reference for graduate students and researchers interested in exploring new methodologies, but can also be employed as a graduate text. The Handbook concentrates on the most important issues, models and techniques for research in macroeconomics, and highlights the core methodologies and their empirical application in an accessible manner. Each chapter...

  17. The Approximate Bayesian Computation methods in the localization of the atmospheric contamination source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopka, P; Wawrzynczak, A; Borysiewicz, M

    2015-01-01

    In many areas of application, a central problem is a solution to the inverse problem, especially estimation of the unknown model parameters to model the underlying dynamics of a physical system precisely. In this situation, the Bayesian inference is a powerful tool to combine observed data with prior knowledge to gain the probability distribution of searched parameters. We have applied the modern methodology named Sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation (S-ABC) to the problem of tracing the atmospheric contaminant source. The ABC is technique commonly used in the Bayesian analysis of complex models and dynamic system. Sequential methods can significantly increase the efficiency of the ABC. In the presented algorithm, the input data are the on-line arriving concentrations of released substance registered by distributed sensor network from OVER-LAND ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION (OLAD) experiment. The algorithm output are the probability distributions of a contamination source parameters i.e. its particular location, release rate, speed and direction of the movement, start time and duration. The stochastic approach presented in this paper is completely general and can be used in other fields where the parameters of the model bet fitted to the observable data should be found. (paper)

  18. Applications of Bayesian Phylodynamic Methods in a Recent U.S. Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus Outbreak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad A. Alkhamis

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Classical phylogenetic methods such as neighbor-joining or maximum likelihood trees, provide limited inferences about the evolution of important pathogens and ignore important evolutionary parameters and uncertainties, which in turn limits decision making related to surveillance, control and prevention resources. Bayesian phylodynamic models have recently been used to test research hypothesis related to evolution of infectious agents. However, few studies have attempted to model the evolutionary dynamics of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV and, to the authors’ knowledge, no attempt has been made to use large volumes of routinely collected data, sometimes referred to as big data, in the context of animal disease surveillance. The objective of this study was to explore and discuss the applications of Bayesian phylodynamic methods for modeling the evolution and spread of a notable 1-7-4 RFLP-type PRRSV between 2014 and 2015. A convenience sample of 288 ORF5 sequences was collected from 5 swine production systems in the United States between September 2003 and March 2015. Using coalescence and discrete trait phylodynamic models, we were able to infer population growth and demographic history of the virus, identified the most likely ancestral system (root state posterior probability = 0.95 and revealed significant dispersal routes (Bayes factor > 6 of viral exchange among systems. Results indicate that currently circulating viruses are evolving rapidly, and show a higher level of relative genetic diversity over time, when compared to earlier relatives. Biological soundness of model results is supported by the finding that sow farms were responsible for PRRSV spread within the systems. Such results can’t be obtained by traditional phylogenetic methods, and therefore, our results provide a methodological framework for molecular epidemiological modeling of new PRRSV outbreaks and demonstrate the prospects of phylodynamic

  19. Robust modelling of solubility in supercritical carbon dioxide using Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarasova, Anna; Burden, Frank; Gasteiger, Johann; Winkler, David A

    2010-04-01

    Two sparse Bayesian methods were used to derive predictive models of solubility of organic dyes and polycyclic aromatic compounds in supercritical carbon dioxide (scCO(2)), over a wide range of temperatures (285.9-423.2K) and pressures (60-1400 bar): a multiple linear regression employing an expectation maximization algorithm and a sparse prior (MLREM) method and a non-linear Bayesian Regularized Artificial Neural Network with a Laplacian Prior (BRANNLP). A randomly selected test set was used to estimate the predictive ability of the models. The MLREM method resulted in a model of similar predictivity to the less sparse MLR method, while the non-linear BRANNLP method created models of substantially better predictivity than either the MLREM or MLR based models. The BRANNLP method simultaneously generated context-relevant subsets of descriptors and a robust, non-linear quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) model for the compound solubility in scCO(2). The differences between linear and non-linear descriptor selection methods are discussed. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Uncertainty estimation of a complex water quality model: The influence of Box-Cox transformation on Bayesian approaches and comparison with a non-Bayesian method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freni, Gabriele; Mannina, Giorgio

    In urban drainage modelling, uncertainty analysis is of undoubted necessity. However, uncertainty analysis in urban water-quality modelling is still in its infancy and only few studies have been carried out. Therefore, several methodological aspects still need to be experienced and clarified especially regarding water quality modelling. The use of the Bayesian approach for uncertainty analysis has been stimulated by its rigorous theoretical framework and by the possibility of evaluating the impact of new knowledge on the modelling predictions. Nevertheless, the Bayesian approach relies on some restrictive hypotheses that are not present in less formal methods like the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). One crucial point in the application of Bayesian method is the formulation of a likelihood function that is conditioned by the hypotheses made regarding model residuals. Statistical transformations, such as the use of Box-Cox equation, are generally used to ensure the homoscedasticity of residuals. However, this practice may affect the reliability of the analysis leading to a wrong uncertainty estimation. The present paper aims to explore the influence of the Box-Cox equation for environmental water quality models. To this end, five cases were considered one of which was the “real” residuals distributions (i.e. drawn from available data). The analysis was applied to the Nocella experimental catchment (Italy) which is an agricultural and semi-urbanised basin where two sewer systems, two wastewater treatment plants and a river reach were monitored during both dry and wet weather periods. The results show that the uncertainty estimation is greatly affected by residual transformation and a wrong assumption may also affect the evaluation of model uncertainty. The use of less formal methods always provide an overestimation of modelling uncertainty with respect to Bayesian method but such effect is reduced if a wrong assumption is made regarding the

  1. Correction the Bias of Odds Ratio resulting from the Misclassification of Exposures in the Study of Environmental Risk Factors of Lung Cancer using Bayesian Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Abadi

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background & Objective: Inability to measure exact exposure in epidemiological studies is a common problem in many studies, especially cross-sectional studies. Depending on the extent of misclassification, results may be affected. Existing methods for solving this problem require a lot of time and money and it is not practical for some of the exposures. Recently, new methods have been proposed in 1:1 matched case–control studies that have solved these problems to some extent. In the present study we have aimed to extend the existing Bayesian method to adjust for misclassification in matched case–control Studies with 1:2 matching. Methods: Here, the standard Dirichlet prior distribution for a multinomial model was extended to allow the data of exposure–disease (OR parameter to be imported into the model excluding other parameters. Information that exist in literature about association between exposure and disease were used as prior information about OR. In order to correct the misclassification Sensitivity Analysis was accomplished and the results were obtained under three Bayesian Methods. Results: The results of naïve Bayesian model were similar to the classic model. The second Bayesian model by employing prior information about the OR, was heavily affected by these information. The third proposed model provides maximum bias adjustment for the risk of heavy metals, smoking and drug abuse. This model showed that heavy metals are not an important risk factor although raw model (logistic regression Classic detected this exposure as an influencing factor on the incidence of lung cancer. Sensitivity analysis showed that third model is robust regarding to different levels of Sensitivity and Specificity. Conclusion: The present study showed that although in most of exposures the results of the second and third model were similar but the proposed model would be able to correct the misclassification to some extent.

  2. Cone Beam X-ray Luminescence Computed Tomography Based on Bayesian Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guanglei; Liu, Fei; Liu, Jie; Luo, Jianwen; Xie, Yaoqin; Bai, Jing; Xing, Lei

    2017-01-01

    X-ray luminescence computed tomography (XLCT), which aims to achieve molecular and functional imaging by X-rays, has recently been proposed as a new imaging modality. Combining the principles of X-ray excitation of luminescence-based probes and optical signal detection, XLCT naturally fuses functional and anatomical images and provides complementary information for a wide range of applications in biomedical research. In order to improve the data acquisition efficiency of previously developed narrow-beam XLCT, a cone beam XLCT (CB-XLCT) mode is adopted here to take advantage of the useful geometric features of cone beam excitation. Practically, a major hurdle in using cone beam X-ray for XLCT is that the inverse problem here is seriously ill-conditioned, hindering us to achieve good image quality. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian method to tackle the bottleneck in CB-XLCT reconstruction. The method utilizes a local regularization strategy based on Gaussian Markov random field to mitigate the ill-conditioness of CB-XLCT. An alternating optimization scheme is then used to automatically calculate all the unknown hyperparameters while an iterative coordinate descent algorithm is adopted to reconstruct the image with a voxel-based closed-form solution. Results of numerical simulations and mouse experiments show that the self-adaptive Bayesian method significantly improves the CB-XLCT image quality as compared with conventional methods.

  3. A three-step Maximum-A-Posterior probability method for InSAR data inversion of coseismic rupture with application to four recent large earthquakes in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, J.; Shen, Z.; Burgmann, R.; Liang, F.

    2012-12-01

    We develop a three-step Maximum-A-Posterior probability (MAP) method for coseismic rupture inversion, which aims at maximizing the a posterior probability density function (PDF) of elastic solutions of earthquake rupture. The method originates from the Fully Bayesian Inversion (FBI) and the Mixed linear-nonlinear Bayesian inversion (MBI) methods , shares the same a posterior PDF with them and keeps most of their merits, while overcoming its convergence difficulty when large numbers of low quality data are used and improving the convergence rate greatly using optimization procedures. A highly efficient global optimization algorithm, Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA), is used to search for the maximum posterior probability in the first step. The non-slip parameters are determined by the global optimization method, and the slip parameters are inverted for using the least squares method without positivity constraint initially, and then damped to physically reasonable range. This step MAP inversion brings the inversion close to 'true' solution quickly and jumps over local maximum regions in high-dimensional parameter space. The second step inversion approaches the 'true' solution further with positivity constraints subsequently applied on slip parameters using the Monte Carlo Inversion (MCI) technique, with all parameters obtained from step one as the initial solution. Then the slip artifacts are eliminated from slip models in the third step MAP inversion with fault geometry parameters fixed. We first used a designed model with 45 degree dipping angle and oblique slip, and corresponding synthetic InSAR data sets to validate the efficiency and accuracy of method. We then applied the method on four recent large earthquakes in Asia, namely the 2010 Yushu, China earthquake, the 2011 Burma earthquake, the 2011 New Zealand earthquake and the 2008 Qinghai, China earthquake, and compared our results with those results from other groups. Our results show the effectiveness of

  4. Inference of time-delayed gene regulatory networks based on dynamic Bayesian network hybrid learning method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Bin; Xu, Jia-Meng; Li, Shan; Chen, Cheng; Chen, Rui-Xin; Wang, Lei; Zhang, Yan; Wang, Ming-Hui

    2017-10-06

    Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) research reveals complex life phenomena from the perspective of gene interaction, which is an important research field in systems biology. Traditional Bayesian networks have a high computational complexity, and the network structure scoring model has a single feature. Information-based approaches cannot identify the direction of regulation. In order to make up for the shortcomings of the above methods, this paper presents a novel hybrid learning method (DBNCS) based on dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) to construct the multiple time-delayed GRNs for the first time, combining the comprehensive score (CS) with the DBN model. DBNCS algorithm first uses CMI2NI (conditional mutual inclusive information-based network inference) algorithm for network structure profiles learning, namely the construction of search space. Then the redundant regulations are removed by using the recursive optimization algorithm (RO), thereby reduce the false positive rate. Secondly, the network structure profiles are decomposed into a set of cliques without loss, which can significantly reduce the computational complexity. Finally, DBN model is used to identify the direction of gene regulation within the cliques and search for the optimal network structure. The performance of DBNCS algorithm is evaluated by the benchmark GRN datasets from DREAM challenge as well as the SOS DNA repair network in Escherichia coli , and compared with other state-of-the-art methods. The experimental results show the rationality of the algorithm design and the outstanding performance of the GRNs.

  5. An Advanced Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of the Generation of Wind Power

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Bracale

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Currently, among renewable distributed generation systems, wind generators are receiving a great deal of interest due to the great economic, technological, and environmental incentives they involve. However, the uncertainties due to the intermittent nature of wind energy make it difficult to operate electrical power systems optimally and make decisions that satisfy the needs of all the stakeholders of the electricity energy market. Thus, there is increasing interest determining how to forecast wind power production accurately. Most the methods that have been published in the relevant literature provided deterministic forecasts even though great interest has been focused recently on probabilistic forecast methods. In this paper, an advanced probabilistic method is proposed for short-term forecasting of wind power production. A mixture of two Weibull distributions was used as a probability function to model the uncertainties associated with wind speed. Then, a Bayesian inference approach with a particularly-effective, autoregressive, integrated, moving-average model was used to determine the parameters of the mixture Weibull distribution. Numerical applications also are presented to provide evidence of the forecasting performance of the Bayesian-based approach.

  6. Lifetime modelling with a Weibull law: comparison of three Bayesian Methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Billy, F.; Remy, E.; Bousquet, N.; Celeux, G.

    2006-01-01

    For a nuclear power plant, being able to estimate the lifetime of important components is strategic. But data is usually insufficient to do so. Thus, it is relevant to use expertise, together with data, in order to assess the value of lifetime on the grounds of both sources. The Bayesian frame and the choice of a Weibull law to model the random time for replacement are relevant. They have been chosen for this article. Two indicators are computed : the mean lifetime of any component and the mean residual lifetime of a given component, after it has been controlled. Three different Bayesian methods are compared on three sets of data. The article shows that the three methods lead to coherent results and that uncertainties are strongly reduced. The method developed around PMC has two main advantages: it models a conditional dependence of the two parameters of the Weibull law, which enables more coherent results on the prior; it has a parameter that weights the strength of the expertise. This last point is very important to do lifetime assessments, because then, expertise is not used to increase too small samples as much as to do a real extrapolation, far beyond what data itself say. (authors)

  7. Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ke; Zhang, Qiuju; Wang, Kun; Chen, Peng; Wang, Huaqing

    2016-01-08

    A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF) and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN) is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal) and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs) for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  8. Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO. To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  9. Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ke; Zhang, Qiuju; Wang, Kun; Chen, Peng; Wang, Huaqing

    2016-01-01

    A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF) and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN) is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal) and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs) for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. PMID:26761006

  10. A Hybrid Maximum Power Point Search Method Using Temperature Measurements in Partial Shading Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mroczka Janusz

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Photovoltaic panels have a non-linear current-voltage characteristics to produce the maximum power at only one point called the maximum power point. In the case of the uniform illumination a single solar panel shows only one maximum power, which is also the global maximum power point. In the case an irregularly illuminated photovoltaic panel many local maxima on the power-voltage curve can be observed and only one of them is the global maximum. The proposed algorithm detects whether a solar panel is in the uniform insolation conditions. Then an appropriate strategy of tracking the maximum power point is taken using a decision algorithm. The proposed method is simulated in the environment created by the authors, which allows to stimulate photovoltaic panels in real conditions of lighting, temperature and shading.

  11. Evaluation of Oceanic Transport Statistics By Use of Transient Tracers and Bayesian Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trossman, D. S.; Thompson, L.; Mecking, S.; Bryan, F.; Peacock, S.

    2013-12-01

    Key variables that quantify the time scales over which atmospheric signals penetrate into the oceanic interior and their uncertainties are computed using Bayesian methods and transient tracers from both models and observations. First, the mean residence times, subduction rates, and formation rates of Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) and Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW) in the North Atlantic and Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) in the Southern Ocean are estimated by combining a model and observations of chlorofluorocarbon-11 (CFC-11) via Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), statistical technique that weights model estimates according to how close they agree with observations. Second, a Bayesian method is presented to find two oceanic transport parameters associated with the age distribution of ocean waters, the transit-time distribution (TTD), by combining an eddying global ocean model's estimate of the TTD with hydrographic observations of CFC-11, temperature, and salinity. Uncertainties associated with objectively mapping irregularly spaced bottle data are quantified by making use of a thin-plate spline and then propagated via the two Bayesian techniques. It is found that the subduction of STMW, SPMW, and SAMW is mostly an advective process, but up to about one-third of STMW subduction likely owes to non-advective processes. Also, while the formation of STMW is mostly due to subduction, the formation of SPMW is mostly due to other processes. About half of the formation of SAMW is due to subduction and half is due to other processes. A combination of air-sea flux, acting on relatively short time scales, and turbulent mixing, acting on a wide range of time scales, is likely the dominant SPMW erosion mechanism. Air-sea flux is likely responsible for most STMW erosion, and turbulent mixing is likely responsible for most SAMW erosion. Two oceanic transport parameters, the mean age of a water parcel and the half-variance associated with the TTD, estimated using the model's tracers as

  12. Study on shielded pump system failure analysis method based on Bayesian network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bao Yilan; Huang Gaofeng; Tong Lili; Cao Xuewu

    2012-01-01

    This paper applies Bayesian network to the system failure analysis, with an aim to improve knowledge representation of the uncertainty logic and multi-fault states in system failure analysis. A Bayesian network for shielded pump failure analysis is presented, conducting fault parameter learning, updating Bayesian network parameter based on new samples. Finally, through the Bayesian network inference, vulnerability in this system, the largest possible failure modes, and the fault probability are obtained. The powerful ability of Bayesian network to analyze system fault is illustrated by examples. (authors)

  13. Guideline for Bayesian Net based Software Fault Estimation Method for Reactor Protection System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, Heung Seop; Park, Gee Yong; Jang, Seung Cheol

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a preliminary guideline for the estimation of software faults in a safety-critical software, for example, reactor protection system's software. As the fault estimation method is based on Bayesian Net which intensively uses subjective probability and informal data, it is necessary to define formal procedure of the method to minimize the variability of the results. The guideline describes assumptions, limitations and uncertainties, and the product of the fault estimation method. The procedure for conducting a software fault-estimation method is then outlined, highlighting the major tasks involved. The contents of the guideline are based on our own experience and a review of research guidelines developed for a PSA

  14. Bayesian prediction of future ice sheet volume using local approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

    2017-12-01

    We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice

  15. Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, A. D.

    2015-12-01

    The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity

  16. Photoacoustic discrimination of vascular and pigmented lesions using classical and Bayesian methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swearingen, Jennifer A.; Holan, Scott H.; Feldman, Mary M.; Viator, John A.

    2010-01-01

    Discrimination of pigmented and vascular lesions in skin can be difficult due to factors such as size, subungual location, and the nature of lesions containing both melanin and vascularity. Misdiagnosis may lead to precancerous or cancerous lesions not receiving proper medical care. To aid in the rapid and accurate diagnosis of such pathologies, we develop a photoacoustic system to determine the nature of skin lesions in vivo. By irradiating skin with two laser wavelengths, 422 and 530 nm, we induce photoacoustic responses, and the relative response at these two wavelengths indicates whether the lesion is pigmented or vascular. This response is due to the distinct absorption spectrum of melanin and hemoglobin. In particular, pigmented lesions have ratios of photoacoustic amplitudes of approximately 1.4 to 1 at the two wavelengths, while vascular lesions have ratios of about 4.0 to 1. Furthermore, we consider two statistical methods for conducting classification of lesions: standard multivariate analysis classification techniques and a Bayesian-model-based approach. We study 15 human subjects with eight vascular and seven pigmented lesions. Using the classical method, we achieve a perfect classification rate, while the Bayesian approach has an error rate of 20%.

  17. Estimated value of insurance premium due to Citarum River flood by using Bayesian method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukono; Aisah, I.; Tampubolon, Y. R. H.; Napitupulu, H.; Supian, S.; Subiyanto; Sidi, P.

    2018-03-01

    Citarum river flood in South Bandung, West Java Indonesia, often happens every year. It causes property damage, producing economic loss. The risk of loss can be mitigated by following the flood insurance program. In this paper, we discussed about the estimated value of insurance premiums due to Citarum river flood by Bayesian method. It is assumed that the risk data for flood losses follows the Pareto distribution with the right fat-tail. The estimation of distribution model parameters is done by using Bayesian method. First, parameter estimation is done with assumption that prior comes from Gamma distribution family, while observation data follow Pareto distribution. Second, flood loss data is simulated based on the probability of damage in each flood affected area. The result of the analysis shows that the estimated premium value of insurance based on pure premium principle is as follows: for the loss value of IDR 629.65 million of premium IDR 338.63 million; for a loss of IDR 584.30 million of its premium IDR 314.24 million; and the loss value of IDR 574.53 million of its premium IDR 308.95 million. The premium value estimator can be used as neither a reference in the decision of reasonable premium determination, so as not to incriminate the insured, nor it result in loss of the insurer.

  18. Bayesian risk-based decision method for model validation under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Xiaomo; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2007-01-01

    This paper develops a decision-making methodology for computational model validation, considering the risk of using the current model, data support for the current model, and cost of acquiring new information to improve the model. A Bayesian decision theory-based method is developed for this purpose, using a likelihood ratio as the validation metric for model assessment. An expected risk or cost function is defined as a function of the decision costs, and the likelihood and prior of each hypothesis. The risk is minimized through correctly assigning experimental data to two decision regions based on the comparison of the likelihood ratio with a decision threshold. A Bayesian validation metric is derived based on the risk minimization criterion. Two types of validation tests are considered: pass/fail tests and system response value measurement tests. The methodology is illustrated for the validation of reliability prediction models in a tension bar and an engine blade subjected to high cycle fatigue. The proposed method can effectively integrate optimal experimental design into model validation to simultaneously reduce the cost and improve the accuracy of reliability model assessment

  19. A novel maximum power point tracking method for PV systems using fuzzy cognitive networks (FCN)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlis, A.D. [Electrical Machines Laboratory, Department of Electrical & amp; Computer Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace, V. Sofias 12, 67100 Xanthi (Greece); Kottas, T.L.; Boutalis, Y.S. [Automatic Control Systems Laboratory, Department of Electrical & amp; Computer Engineering, Democritus University of Thrace, V. Sofias 12, 67100 Xanthi (Greece)

    2007-03-15

    Maximum power point trackers (MPPTs) play an important role in photovoltaic (PV) power systems because they maximize the power output from a PV system for a given set of conditions, and therefore maximize the array efficiency. This paper presents a novel MPPT method based on fuzzy cognitive networks (FCN). The new method gives a good maximum power operation of any PV array under different conditions such as changing insolation and temperature. The numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. (author)

  20. The Bayesian Covariance Lasso.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khondker, Zakaria S; Zhu, Hongtu; Chu, Haitao; Lin, Weili; Ibrahim, Joseph G

    2013-04-01

    Estimation of sparse covariance matrices and their inverse subject to positive definiteness constraints has drawn a lot of attention in recent years. The abundance of high-dimensional data, where the sample size ( n ) is less than the dimension ( d ), requires shrinkage estimation methods since the maximum likelihood estimator is not positive definite in this case. Furthermore, when n is larger than d but not sufficiently larger, shrinkage estimation is more stable than maximum likelihood as it reduces the condition number of the precision matrix. Frequentist methods have utilized penalized likelihood methods, whereas Bayesian approaches rely on matrix decompositions or Wishart priors for shrinkage. In this paper we propose a new method, called the Bayesian Covariance Lasso (BCLASSO), for the shrinkage estimation of a precision (covariance) matrix. We consider a class of priors for the precision matrix that leads to the popular frequentist penalties as special cases, develop a Bayes estimator for the precision matrix, and propose an efficient sampling scheme that does not precalculate boundaries for positive definiteness. The proposed method is permutation invariant and performs shrinkage and estimation simultaneously for non-full rank data. Simulations show that the proposed BCLASSO performs similarly as frequentist methods for non-full rank data.

  1. Model Based Beamforming and Bayesian Inversion Signal Processing Methods for Seismic Localization of Underground Source

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oh, Geok Lian

    properties such as the elastic wave speeds and soil densities. One processing method is casting the estimation problem into an inverse problem to solve for the unknown material parameters. The forward model for the seismic signals used in the literatures include ray tracing methods that consider only...... density values of the discretized ground medium, which leads to time-consuming computations and instability behaviour of the inversion process. In addition, the geophysics inverse problem is generally ill-posed due to non-exact forward model that introduces errors. The Bayesian inversion method through...... the first arrivals of the reflected compressional P-waves from the subsurface structures, or 3D elastic wave models that model all the seismic wave components. The ray tracing forward model formulation is linear, whereas the full 3D elastic wave model leads to a nonlinear inversion problem. In this Ph...

  2. A Modified Method Combined with a Support Vector Machine and Bayesian Algorithms in Biological Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Gang Zhou

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available With the deep research of genomics and proteomics, the number of new protein sequences has expanded rapidly. With the obvious shortcomings of high cost and low efficiency of the traditional experimental method, the calculation method for protein localization prediction has attracted a lot of attention due to its convenience and low cost. In the machine learning techniques, neural network and support vector machine (SVM are often used as learning tools. Due to its complete theoretical framework, SVM has been widely applied. In this paper, we make an improvement on the existing machine learning algorithm of the support vector machine algorithm, and a new improved algorithm has been developed, combined with Bayesian algorithms. The proposed algorithm can improve calculation efficiency, and defects of the original algorithm are eliminated. According to the verification, the method has proved to be valid. At the same time, it can reduce calculation time and improve prediction efficiency.

  3. Online probabilistic operational safety assessment of multi-mode engineering systems using Bayesian methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Yufei; Chen, Maoyin; Zhou, Donghua

    2013-01-01

    In the past decades, engineering systems become more and more complex, and generally work at different operational modes. Since incipient fault can lead to dangerous accidents, it is crucial to develop strategies for online operational safety assessment. However, the existing online assessment methods for multi-mode engineering systems commonly assume that samples are independent, which do not hold for practical cases. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework of online operational safety assessment of multi-mode engineering systems with sample dependency. To begin with, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to characterize multiple operating modes. Then, based on the definition of safety index (SI), the SI for one single mode is calculated. At last, the Bayesian method is presented to calculate the posterior probabilities belonging to each operating mode with sample dependency. The proposed assessment strategy is applied in two examples: one is the aircraft gas turbine, another is an industrial dryer. Both examples illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method

  4. ObStruct: a method to objectively analyse factors driving population structure using Bayesian ancestry profiles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Velimir Gayevskiy

    Full Text Available Bayesian inference methods are extensively used to detect the presence of population structure given genetic data. The primary output of software implementing these methods are ancestry profiles of sampled individuals. While these profiles robustly partition the data into subgroups, currently there is no objective method to determine whether the fixed factor of interest (e.g. geographic origin correlates with inferred subgroups or not, and if so, which populations are driving this correlation. We present ObStruct, a novel tool to objectively analyse the nature of structure revealed in Bayesian ancestry profiles using established statistical methods. ObStruct evaluates the extent of structural similarity between sampled and inferred populations, tests the significance of population differentiation, provides information on the contribution of sampled and inferred populations to the observed structure and crucially determines whether the predetermined factor of interest correlates with inferred population structure. Analyses of simulated and experimental data highlight ObStruct's ability to objectively assess the nature of structure in populations. We show the method is capable of capturing an increase in the level of structure with increasing time since divergence between simulated populations. Further, we applied the method to a highly structured dataset of 1,484 humans from seven continents and a less structured dataset of 179 Saccharomyces cerevisiae from three regions in New Zealand. Our results show that ObStruct provides an objective metric to classify the degree, drivers and significance of inferred structure, as well as providing novel insights into the relationships between sampled populations, and adds a final step to the pipeline for population structure analyses.

  5. A calibration and data assimilation method using the Bayesian MARS emulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stripling, H.F.; McClarren, R.G.; Kuranz, C.C.; Grosskopf, M.J.; Rutter, E.; Torralva, B.R.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We outline a transparent, flexible method for the calibration of uncertain inputs to computer models. ► We account for model, data, emulator, and measurement uncertainties. ► The method produces improved predictive results, which are validated using leave one-out experiments. ► Our implementation leverages the Bayesian MARS emulator, but any emulator may be substituted. -- Abstract: We present a method for calibrating the uncertain inputs to a computer model using available experimental data. The goal of the procedure is to estimate the posterior distribution of the uncertain inputs such that when samples from the posterior are used as inputs to future model runs, the model is more likely to replicate (or predict) the experimental response. The calibration is performed by sampling the space of the uncertain inputs, using the computer model (or, more likely, an emulator for the computer model) to assign weights to the samples, and applying the weights to produce the posterior distributions and generate predictions of new experiments with confidence bounds. The method is similar to Metropolis–Hastings calibration methods with independently sampled updates, except that we generate samples beforehand and replace the candidate acceptance routine with a weighting scheme. We apply our method to the calibration of a Hyades 2D model of laser energy deposition in beryllium. We employ a Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (BMARS) emulator as a surrogate for Hyades 2D. We treat a range of uncertainties in our application, including uncertainties in the experimental inputs, experimental measurement error, and systematic experimental timing errors. The resulting posterior distributions agree with our existing intuition, and we validate the results by performing a series of leave-one-out predictions. We find that the calibrated predictions are considerably more accurate and less uncertain than blind sampling of the forward model alone.

  6. Maximum Likelihood and Restricted Likelihood Solutions in Multiple-Method Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rukhin, Andrew L

    2011-01-01

    A formulation of the problem of combining data from several sources is discussed in terms of random effects models. The unknown measurement precision is assumed not to be the same for all methods. We investigate maximum likelihood solutions in this model. By representing the likelihood equations as simultaneous polynomial equations, the exact form of the Groebner basis for their stationary points is derived when there are two methods. A parametrization of these solutions which allows their comparison is suggested. A numerical method for solving likelihood equations is outlined, and an alternative to the maximum likelihood method, the restricted maximum likelihood, is studied. In the situation when methods variances are considered to be known an upper bound on the between-method variance is obtained. The relationship between likelihood equations and moment-type equations is also discussed.

  7. Bayesian methods for addressing long-standing problems in associative learning: The case of PREE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco, Fernando; Moris, Joaquín

    2017-07-20

    Most associative models typically assume that learning can be understood as a gradual change in associative strength that captures the situation into one single parameter, or representational state. We will call this view single-state learning. However, there is ample evidence showing that under many circumstances different relationships that share features can be learned independently, and animals can quickly switch between expressing one or another. We will call this multiple-state learning. Theoretically, it is understudied because it needs a different data analysis approach from those usually employed. In this paper, we present a Bayesian model of the Partial Reinforcement Extinction Effect (PREE) that can test the predictions of the multiple-state view. This implies estimating the moment of change in the responses (from the acquisition to the extinction performance), both at the individual and at the group levels. We used this model to analyze data from a PREE experiment with three levels of reinforcement during acquisition (100%, 75% and 50%). We found differences in the estimated moment of switch between states during extinction, so that it was delayed after leaner partial reinforcement schedules. The finding is compatible with the multiple-state view. It is the first time, to our knowledge, that the predictions from the multiple-state view are tested directly. The paper also aims to show the benefits that Bayesian methods can bring to the associative learning field.

  8. Evolutionary Analysis of Dengue Serotype 2 Viruses Using Phylogenetic and Bayesian Methods from New Delhi, India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazia Afreen

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Dengue fever is the most important arboviral disease in the tropical and sub-tropical countries of the world. Delhi, the metropolitan capital state of India, has reported many dengue outbreaks, with the last outbreak occurring in 2013. We have recently reported predominance of dengue virus serotype 2 during 2011-2014 in Delhi. In the present study, we report molecular characterization and evolutionary analysis of dengue serotype 2 viruses which were detected in 2011-2014 in Delhi. Envelope genes of 42 DENV-2 strains were sequenced in the study. All DENV-2 strains grouped within the Cosmopolitan genotype and further clustered into three lineages; Lineage I, II and III. Lineage III replaced lineage I during dengue fever outbreak of 2013. Further, a novel mutation Thr404Ile was detected in the stem region of the envelope protein of a single DENV-2 strain in 2014. Nucleotide substitution rate and time to the most recent common ancestor were determined by molecular clock analysis using Bayesian methods. A change in effective population size of Indian DENV-2 viruses was investigated through Bayesian skyline plot. The study will be a vital road map for investigation of epidemiology and evolutionary pattern of dengue viruses in India.

  9. Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: a study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel; Walker, Anthony; Safta, Cosmin; Munger, William

    2017-09-01

    Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this work, a differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm is used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The calibration of DREAM results in a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the popular adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. Moreover, DREAM indicates that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identifies one mode. The application suggests that DREAM is very suitable to calibrate complex terrestrial ecosystem models, where the uncertain parameter size is usually large and existence of local optima is always a concern. In addition, this effort justifies the assumptions of the error model used in Bayesian calibration according to the residual analysis. The result indicates that a heteroscedastic, correlated, Gaussian error model is appropriate for the problem, and the consequent constructed likelihood function can alleviate the underestimation of parameter uncertainty that is usually caused by using uncorrelated error models.

  10. A Hybrid Maximum Power Point Tracking Method for Automobile Exhaust Thermoelectric Generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Rui; Zhou, Wei; Yang, Guangyou; Quan, Shuhai

    2017-05-01

    To make full use of the maximum output power of automobile exhaust thermoelectric generator (AETEG) based on Bi2Te3 thermoelectric modules (TEMs), taking into account the advantages and disadvantages of existing maximum power point tracking methods, and according to the output characteristics of TEMs, a hybrid maximum power point tracking method combining perturb and observe (P&O) algorithm, quadratic interpolation and constant voltage tracking method was put forward in this paper. Firstly, it searched the maximum power point with P&O algorithms and a quadratic interpolation method, then, it forced the AETEG to work at its maximum power point with constant voltage tracking. A synchronous buck converter and controller were implemented in the electric bus of the AETEG applied in a military sports utility vehicle, and the whole system was modeled and simulated with a MATLAB/Simulink environment. Simulation results demonstrate that the maximum output power of the AETEG based on the proposed hybrid method is increased by about 3.0% and 3.7% compared with that using only the P&O algorithm and the quadratic interpolation method, respectively. The shorter tracking time is only 1.4 s, which is reduced by half compared with that of the P&O algorithm and quadratic interpolation method, respectively. The experimental results demonstrate that the tracked maximum power is approximately equal to the real value using the proposed hybrid method,and it can preferentially deal with the voltage fluctuation of the AETEG with only P&O algorithm, and resolve the issue that its working point can barely be adjusted only with constant voltage tracking when the operation conditions change.

  11. Efficient nonparametric and asymptotic Bayesian model selection methods for attributed graph clustering

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Zhiqiang

    2017-02-16

    Attributed graph clustering, also known as community detection on attributed graphs, attracts much interests recently due to the ubiquity of attributed graphs in real life. Many existing algorithms have been proposed for this problem, which are either distance based or model based. However, model selection in attributed graph clustering has not been well addressed, that is, most existing algorithms assume the cluster number to be known a priori. In this paper, we propose two efficient approaches for attributed graph clustering with automatic model selection. The first approach is a popular Bayesian nonparametric method, while the second approach is an asymptotic method based on a recently proposed model selection criterion, factorized information criterion. Experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our approaches for attributed graph clustering with automatic model selection significantly outperform the state-of-the-art algorithm.

  12. Efficient nonparametric and asymptotic Bayesian model selection methods for attributed graph clustering

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Zhiqiang; Cheng, James; Xiao, Xiaokui; Fujimaki, Ryohei; Muraoka, Yusuke

    2017-01-01

    Attributed graph clustering, also known as community detection on attributed graphs, attracts much interests recently due to the ubiquity of attributed graphs in real life. Many existing algorithms have been proposed for this problem, which are either distance based or model based. However, model selection in attributed graph clustering has not been well addressed, that is, most existing algorithms assume the cluster number to be known a priori. In this paper, we propose two efficient approaches for attributed graph clustering with automatic model selection. The first approach is a popular Bayesian nonparametric method, while the second approach is an asymptotic method based on a recently proposed model selection criterion, factorized information criterion. Experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our approaches for attributed graph clustering with automatic model selection significantly outperform the state-of-the-art algorithm.

  13. Statistical analysis using the Bayesian nonparametric method for irradiation embrittlement of reactor pressure vessels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takamizawa, Hisashi, E-mail: takamizawa.hisashi@jaea.go.jp; Itoh, Hiroto, E-mail: ito.hiroto@jaea.go.jp; Nishiyama, Yutaka, E-mail: nishiyama.yutaka93@jaea.go.jp

    2016-10-15

    In order to understand neutron irradiation embrittlement in high fluence regions, statistical analysis using the Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) method was performed for the Japanese surveillance and material test reactor irradiation database. The BNP method is essentially expressed as an infinite summation of normal distributions, with input data being subdivided into clusters with identical statistical parameters, such as mean and standard deviation, for each cluster to estimate shifts in ductile-to-brittle transition temperature (DBTT). The clusters typically depend on chemical compositions, irradiation conditions, and the irradiation embrittlement. Specific variables contributing to the irradiation embrittlement include the content of Cu, Ni, P, Si, and Mn in the pressure vessel steels, neutron flux, neutron fluence, and irradiation temperatures. It was found that the measured shifts of DBTT correlated well with the calculated ones. Data associated with the same materials were subdivided into the same clusters even if neutron fluences were increased.

  14. Comparsion of maximum viscosity and viscometric method for identification of irradiated sweet potato starch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi, Sang Duk; Yang, Jae Seung

    2000-01-01

    A study was carried out to compare viscosity and maximum viscosity methods for the detection of irradiated sweet potato starch. The viscosity of all samples decreased by increasing stirring speeds and irradiation doses. This trend was similar for maximum viscosity. Regression coefficients and expressions of viscosity and maximum viscosity with increasing irradiation dose were 0.9823 (y=335.02e -0. 3 366x ) at 120 rpm and 0.9939 (y =-42.544x+730.26). This trend in viscosity was similar for all stirring speeds. Parameter A, B and C values showed a dose dependent relation and were a better parameter for detecting irradiation treatment than maximum viscosity and the viscosity value it self. These results suggest that the detection of irradiated sweet potato starch is possible by both the viscometric and maximum visosity method. Therefore, the authors think that the maximum viscosity method can be proposed as one of the new methods to detect the irradiation treatment for sweet potato starch

  15. Effect of a High-intensity Interval Training method on maximum oxygen consumption in Chilean schoolchildren

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Galdames-Maliqueo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The low levels of maximum oxygen consumption (VO2max evaluated in Chilean schoolchildren suggest the startup of trainings that improve the aerobic capacity. Objective: To analyze the effect of a High-intensity Interval Training method on maximum oxygen consumption in Chilean schoolchildren. Materials and methods: Thirty-two high school students from the eighth grade, who were divided into two groups, were part of the study (experimental group = 16 students and control group = 16 students. The main analyzed variable was the maximum oxygen consumption through the Course Navette Test. A High-intensity Interval training method was applied based on the maximum aerobic speed obtained through the Test. A mixed ANOVA was used for statistical analysis. Results: The experimental group showed a significant increase in the Maximum Oxygen Consumption between the pretest and posttest when compared with the control group (p < 0.0001. Conclusion: The results of the study showed a positive effect of the High-intensity Interval Training on the maximum consumption of oxygen. At the end of the study, it is concluded that High-intensity Interval Training is a good stimulation methodology for Chilean schoolchildren.

  16. A computer program for uncertainty analysis integrating regression and Bayesian methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming; Hill, Mary C.; Poeter, Eileen P.; Curtis, Gary

    2014-01-01

    This work develops a new functionality in UCODE_2014 to evaluate Bayesian credible intervals using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The MCMC capability in UCODE_2014 is based on the FORTRAN version of the differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm of Vrugt et al. (2009), which estimates the posterior probability density function of model parameters in high-dimensional and multimodal sampling problems. The UCODE MCMC capability provides eleven prior probability distributions and three ways to initialize the sampling process. It evaluates parametric and predictive uncertainties and it has parallel computing capability based on multiple chains to accelerate the sampling process. This paper tests and demonstrates the MCMC capability using a 10-dimensional multimodal mathematical function, a 100-dimensional Gaussian function, and a groundwater reactive transport model. The use of the MCMC capability is made straightforward and flexible by adopting the JUPITER API protocol. With the new MCMC capability, UCODE_2014 can be used to calculate three types of uncertainty intervals, which all can account for prior information: (1) linear confidence intervals which require linearity and Gaussian error assumptions and typically 10s–100s of highly parallelizable model runs after optimization, (2) nonlinear confidence intervals which require a smooth objective function surface and Gaussian observation error assumptions and typically 100s–1,000s of partially parallelizable model runs after optimization, and (3) MCMC Bayesian credible intervals which require few assumptions and commonly 10,000s–100,000s or more partially parallelizable model runs. Ready access allows users to select methods best suited to their work, and to compare methods in many circumstances.

  17. VizieR Online Data Catalog: Bayesian method for detecting stellar flares (Pitkin+, 2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitkin, M.; Williams, D.; Fletcher, L.; Grant, S. D. T.

    2015-05-01

    We present a Bayesian-odds-ratio-based algorithm for detecting stellar flares in light-curve data. We assume flares are described by a model in which there is a rapid rise with a half-Gaussian profile, followed by an exponential decay. Our signal model also contains a polynomial background model required to fit underlying light-curve variations in the data, which could otherwise partially mimic a flare. We characterize the false alarm probability and efficiency of this method under the assumption that any unmodelled noise in the data is Gaussian, and compare it with a simpler thresholding method based on that used in Walkowicz et al. We find our method has a significant increase in detection efficiency for low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) flares. For a conservative false alarm probability our method can detect 95 per cent of flares with S/N less than 20, as compared to S/N of 25 for the simpler method. We also test how well the assumption of Gaussian noise holds by applying the method to a selection of 'quiet' Kepler stars. As an example we have applied our method to a selection of stars in Kepler Quarter 1 data. The method finds 687 flaring stars with a total of 1873 flares after vetos have been applied. For these flares we have made preliminary characterizations of their durations and and S/N. (1 data file).

  18. Critical Analysis of Non-Nuclear Electron-Density Maxima and the Maximum Entropy Method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, R.Y.; Briels, Willem J.; Feil, D.; Feil, D.

    1996-01-01

    Experimental evidence for the existence of non-nuclear maxima in charge densities is questioned. It is shown that the non-nuclear maxima reported for silicon are artifacts of the maximum entropy method that was used to analyze the x-ray diffraction data. This method can be improved by the use of

  19. Application of the Maximum Entropy Method to Risk Analysis of Mergers and Acquisitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jigang; Song, Wenyun

    The maximum entropy (ME) method can be used to analyze the risk of mergers and acquisitions when only pre-acquisition information is available. A practical example of the risk analysis of China listed firms’ mergers and acquisitions is provided to testify the feasibility and practicality of the method.

  20. A Bayesian method and its variational approximation for prediction of genomic breeding values in multiple traits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hayashi Takeshi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genomic selection is an effective tool for animal and plant breeding, allowing effective individual selection without phenotypic records through the prediction of genomic breeding value (GBV. To date, genomic selection has focused on a single trait. However, actual breeding often targets multiple correlated traits, and, therefore, joint analysis taking into consideration the correlation between traits, which might result in more accurate GBV prediction than analyzing each trait separately, is suitable for multi-trait genomic selection. This would require an extension of the prediction model for single-trait GBV to multi-trait case. As the computational burden of multi-trait analysis is even higher than that of single-trait analysis, an effective computational method for constructing a multi-trait prediction model is also needed. Results We described a Bayesian regression model incorporating variable selection for jointly predicting GBVs of multiple traits and devised both an MCMC iteration and variational approximation for Bayesian estimation of parameters in this multi-trait model. The proposed Bayesian procedures with MCMC iteration and variational approximation were referred to as MCBayes and varBayes, respectively. Using simulated datasets of SNP genotypes and phenotypes for three traits with high and low heritabilities, we compared the accuracy in predicting GBVs between multi-trait and single-trait analyses as well as between MCBayes and varBayes. The results showed that, compared to single-trait analysis, multi-trait analysis enabled much more accurate GBV prediction for low-heritability traits correlated with high-heritability traits, by utilizing the correlation structure between traits, while the prediction accuracy for uncorrelated low-heritability traits was comparable or less with multi-trait analysis in comparison with single-trait analysis depending on the setting for prior probability that a SNP has zero

  1. Preliminary application of maximum likelihood method in HL-2A Thomson scattering system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao Ke; Huang Yuan; Feng Zhen; Liu Chunhua; Li Enping; Nie Lin

    2010-01-01

    Maximum likelihood method to process the data of HL-2A Thomson scattering system is presented. Using mathematical statistics, this method maximizes the possibility of the likeness between the theoretical data and the observed data, so that we could get more accurate result. It has been proved to be applicable in comparison with that of the ratios method, and some of the drawbacks in ratios method do not exist in this new one. (authors)

  2. Bayesian analysis of general failure data from an ageing distribution: advances in numerical methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Procaccia, H.; Villain, B.; Clarotti, C.A.

    1996-01-01

    EDF and ENEA carried out a joint research program for developing the numerical methods and computer codes needed for Bayesian analysis of component-lives in the case of ageing. Early results of this study were presented at ESREL'94. Since then the following further steps have been gone: input data have been generalized to the case that observed lives are censored both on the right and on the left; allowable life distributions are Weibull and gamma - their parameters are both unknown and can be statistically dependent; allowable priors are histograms relative to different parametrizations of the life distribution of concern; first-and-second-order-moments of the posterior distributions can be computed. In particular the covariance will give some important information about the degree of the statistical dependence between the parameters of interest. An application of the code to the appearance of a stress corrosion cracking in a tube of the PWR Steam Generator system is presented. (authors)

  3. An urban flood risk assessment method using the Bayesian Network approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åström, Helena Lisa Alexandra

    and water resources management studies, whereas climate risk studies have not yet fully adapted the BN method. A BN is a graphical model that utilizes causal relationships to describe the overall system where risk occurs. A BN can be further extended into a Bayesian Influence diagram (ID) by including...... for inclusion of multiple hazards in FRAs. Lastly, the inclusion of multiple hazards in FRA may be challenging, among others because concurrent events are rare. However, with climate change, the annual variation of hazards may change, and concurrent events may become more frequent. Large-scale atmospheric...... circulation influences local and regional climate and is considered an important factor when aiming at improving our understanding of local weather conditions and the occurrence of extreme events. Hence, this thesis presents a study that explores the relationship between flood generating hazards and large...

  4. Physics-based, Bayesian sequential detection method and system for radioactive contraband

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candy, James V; Axelrod, Michael C; Breitfeller, Eric F; Chambers, David H; Guidry, Brian L; Manatt, Douglas R; Meyer, Alan W; Sale, Kenneth E

    2014-03-18

    A distributed sequential method and system for detecting and identifying radioactive contraband from highly uncertain (noisy) low-count, radionuclide measurements, i.e. an event mode sequence (EMS), using a statistical approach based on Bayesian inference and physics-model-based signal processing based on the representation of a radionuclide as a monoenergetic decomposition of monoenergetic sources. For a given photon event of the EMS, the appropriate monoenergy processing channel is determined using a confidence interval condition-based discriminator for the energy amplitude and interarrival time and parameter estimates are used to update a measured probability density function estimate for a target radionuclide. A sequential likelihood ratio test is then used to determine one of two threshold conditions signifying that the EMS is either identified as the target radionuclide or not, and if not, then repeating the process for the next sequential photon event of the EMS until one of the two threshold conditions is satisfied.

  5. Model estimation of claim risk and premium for motor vehicle insurance by using Bayesian method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukono; Riaman; Lesmana, E.; Wulandari, R.; Napitupulu, H.; Supian, S.

    2018-01-01

    Risk models need to be estimated by the insurance company in order to predict the magnitude of the claim and determine the premiums charged to the insured. This is intended to prevent losses in the future. In this paper, we discuss the estimation of risk model claims and motor vehicle insurance premiums using Bayesian methods approach. It is assumed that the frequency of claims follow a Poisson distribution, while a number of claims assumed to follow a Gamma distribution. The estimation of parameters of the distribution of the frequency and amount of claims are made by using Bayesian methods. Furthermore, the estimator distribution of frequency and amount of claims are used to estimate the aggregate risk models as well as the value of the mean and variance. The mean and variance estimator that aggregate risk, was used to predict the premium eligible to be charged to the insured. Based on the analysis results, it is shown that the frequency of claims follow a Poisson distribution with parameter values λ is 5.827. While a number of claims follow the Gamma distribution with parameter values p is 7.922 and θ is 1.414. Therefore, the obtained values of the mean and variance of the aggregate claims respectively are IDR 32,667,489.88 and IDR 38,453,900,000,000.00. In this paper the prediction of the pure premium eligible charged to the insured is obtained, which amounting to IDR 2,722,290.82. The prediction of the claims and premiums aggregate can be used as a reference for the insurance company’s decision-making in management of reserves and premiums of motor vehicle insurance.

  6. Estimation of parameter uncertainty for an activated sludge model using Bayesian inference: a comparison with the frequentist method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zonta, Zivko J; Flotats, Xavier; Magrí, Albert

    2014-08-01

    The procedure commonly used for the assessment of the parameters included in activated sludge models (ASMs) relies on the estimation of their optimal value within a confidence region (i.e. frequentist inference). Once optimal values are estimated, parameter uncertainty is computed through the covariance matrix. However, alternative approaches based on the consideration of the model parameters as probability distributions (i.e. Bayesian inference), may be of interest. The aim of this work is to apply (and compare) both Bayesian and frequentist inference methods when assessing uncertainty for an ASM-type model, which considers intracellular storage and biomass growth, simultaneously. Practical identifiability was addressed exclusively considering respirometric profiles based on the oxygen uptake rate and with the aid of probabilistic global sensitivity analysis. Parameter uncertainty was thus estimated according to both the Bayesian and frequentist inferential procedures. Results were compared in order to evidence the strengths and weaknesses of both approaches. Since it was demonstrated that Bayesian inference could be reduced to a frequentist approach under particular hypotheses, the former can be considered as a more generalist methodology. Hence, the use of Bayesian inference is encouraged for tackling inferential issues in ASM environments.

  7. Bayesian estimates of linkage disequilibrium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abad-Grau María M

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The maximum likelihood estimator of D' – a standard measure of linkage disequilibrium – is biased toward disequilibrium, and the bias is particularly evident in small samples and rare haplotypes. Results This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation of D' to address this problem. The reduction of the bias is achieved by using a prior distribution on the pair-wise associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs that increases the likelihood of equilibrium with increasing physical distances between pairs of SNPs. We show how to compute the Bayesian estimate using a stochastic estimation based on MCMC methods, and also propose a numerical approximation to the Bayesian estimates that can be used to estimate patterns of LD in large datasets of SNPs. Conclusion Our Bayesian estimator of D' corrects the bias toward disequilibrium that affects the maximum likelihood estimator. A consequence of this feature is a more objective view about the extent of linkage disequilibrium in the human genome, and a more realistic number of tagging SNPs to fully exploit the power of genome wide association studies.

  8. A dynamic discretization method for reliability inference in Dynamic Bayesian Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Jiandao; Collette, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    The material and modeling parameters that drive structural reliability analysis for marine structures are subject to a significant uncertainty. This is especially true when time-dependent degradation mechanisms such as structural fatigue cracking are considered. Through inspection and monitoring, information such as crack location and size can be obtained to improve these parameters and the corresponding reliability estimates. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) are a powerful and flexible tool to model dynamic system behavior and update reliability and uncertainty analysis with life cycle data for problems such as fatigue cracking. However, a central challenge in using DBNs is the need to discretize certain types of continuous random variables to perform network inference while still accurately tracking low-probability failure events. Most existing discretization methods focus on getting the overall shape of the distribution correct, with less emphasis on the tail region. Therefore, a novel scheme is presented specifically to estimate the likelihood of low-probability failure events. The scheme is an iterative algorithm which dynamically partitions the discretization intervals at each iteration. Through applications to two stochastic crack-growth example problems, the algorithm is shown to be robust and accurate. Comparisons are presented between the proposed approach and existing methods for the discretization problem. - Highlights: • A dynamic discretization method is developed for low-probability events in DBNs. • The method is compared to existing approaches on two crack growth problems. • The method is shown to improve on existing methods for low-probability events

  9. A Hybrid Optimization Method for Solving Bayesian Inverse Problems under Uncertainty.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Zhang

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the application of a new method, the Finite Difference and Stochastic Gradient (Hybrid method, for history matching in reservoir models. History matching is one of the processes of solving an inverse problem by calibrating reservoir models to dynamic behaviour of the reservoir in which an objective function is formulated based on a Bayesian approach for optimization. The goal of history matching is to identify the minimum value of an objective function that expresses the misfit between the predicted and measured data of a reservoir. To address the optimization problem, we present a novel application using a combination of the stochastic gradient and finite difference methods for solving inverse problems. The optimization is constrained by a linear equation that contains the reservoir parameters. We reformulate the reservoir model's parameters and dynamic data by operating the objective function, the approximate gradient of which can guarantee convergence. At each iteration step, we obtain the relatively 'important' elements of the gradient, which are subsequently substituted by the values from the Finite Difference method through comparing the magnitude of the components of the stochastic gradient, which forms a new gradient, and we subsequently iterate with the new gradient. Through the application of the Hybrid method, we efficiently and accurately optimize the objective function. We present a number numerical simulations in this paper that show that the method is accurate and computationally efficient.

  10. Locating disease genes using Bayesian variable selection with the Haseman-Elston method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    He Qimei

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We applied stochastic search variable selection (SSVS, a Bayesian model selection method, to the simulated data of Genetic Analysis Workshop 13. We used SSVS with the revisited Haseman-Elston method to find the markers linked to the loci determining change in cholesterol over time. To study gene-gene interaction (epistasis and gene-environment interaction, we adopted prior structures, which incorporate the relationship among the predictors. This allows SSVS to search in the model space more efficiently and avoid the less likely models. Results In applying SSVS, instead of looking at the posterior distribution of each of the candidate models, which is sensitive to the setting of the prior, we ranked the candidate variables (markers according to their marginal posterior probability, which was shown to be more robust to the prior. Compared with traditional methods that consider one marker at a time, our method considers all markers simultaneously and obtains more favorable results. Conclusions We showed that SSVS is a powerful method for identifying linked markers using the Haseman-Elston method, even for weak effects. SSVS is very effective because it does a smart search over the entire model space.

  11. Robust optimum design with maximum entropy method; Saidai entropy ho mochiita robust sei saitekika sekkeiho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kawaguchi, K; Egashira, Y; Watanabe, G [Mazda Motor Corp., Hiroshima (Japan)

    1997-10-01

    Vehicle and unit performance change according to not only external causes represented by the environment such as temperature or weather, but also internal causes which are dispersion of component characteristics and manufacturing processes or aged deteriorations. We developed the design method to estimate thus performance distributions with maximum entropy method and to calculate specifications with high performance robustness using Fuzzy theory. This paper describes the details of these methods and examples applied to power window system. 3 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs.

  12. Spatial Estimation of Losses Attributable to Meteorological Disasters in a Specific Area (105.0°E–115.0°E, 25°N–35°N Using Bayesian Maximum Entropy and Partial Least Squares Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. S. Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The spatial mapping of losses attributable to such disasters is now well established as a means of describing the spatial patterns of disaster risk, and it has been shown to be suitable for many types of major meteorological disasters. However, few studies have been carried out by developing a regression model to estimate the effects of the spatial distribution of meteorological factors on losses associated with meteorological disasters. In this study, the proposed approach is capable of the following: (a estimating the spatial distributions of seven meteorological factors using Bayesian maximum entropy, (b identifying the four mapping methods used in this research with the best performance based on the cross validation, and (c establishing a fitted model between the PLS components and disaster losses information using partial least squares regression within a specific research area. The results showed the following: (a best mapping results were produced by multivariate Bayesian maximum entropy with probabilistic soft data; (b the regression model using three PLS components, extracted from seven meteorological factors by PLS method, was the most predictive by means of PRESS/SS test; (c northern Hunan Province sustains the most damage, and southeastern Gansu Province and western Guizhou Province sustained the least.

  13. Bayesian uncertainty analyses of probabilistic risk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.

    1989-01-01

    Applications of Bayesian principles to the uncertainty analyses are discussed in the paper. A short review of the most important uncertainties and their causes is provided. An application of the principle of maximum entropy to the determination of Bayesian prior distributions is described. An approach based on so called probabilistic structures is presented in order to develop a method of quantitative evaluation of modelling uncertainties. The method is applied to a small example case. Ideas for application areas for the proposed method are discussed

  14. A Bayesian least-squares support vector machine method for predicting the remaining useful life of a microwave component

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuqiang Sun

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapid and accurate lifetime prediction of critical components in a system is important to maintaining the system’s reliable operation. To this end, many lifetime prediction methods have been developed to handle various failure-related data collected in different situations. Among these methods, machine learning and Bayesian updating are the most popular ones. In this article, a Bayesian least-squares support vector machine method that combines least-squares support vector machine with Bayesian inference is developed for predicting the remaining useful life of a microwave component. A degradation model describing the change in the component’s power gain over time is developed, and the point and interval remaining useful life estimates are obtained considering a predefined failure threshold. In our case study, the radial basis function neural network approach is also implemented for comparison purposes. The results indicate that the Bayesian least-squares support vector machine method is more precise and stable in predicting the remaining useful life of this type of components.

  15. Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

    2018-02-01

    This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

  16. Effective updating process of seismic fragilities using Bayesian method and information entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Masaaki; Takata, Takashi; Yamaguchi, Akira

    2008-01-01

    Seismic probabilistic safety assessment (SPSA) is an effective method for evaluating overall performance of seismic safety of a plant. Seismic fragilities are estimated to quantify the seismically induced accident sequences. It is a great concern that the SPSA results involve uncertainties, a part of which comes from the uncertainty in the seismic fragility of equipment and systems. A straightforward approach to reduce the uncertainty is to perform a seismic qualification test and to reflect the results on the seismic fragility estimate. In this paper, we propose a figure-of-merit to find the most cost-effective condition of the seismic qualification tests about the acceleration level and number of components tested. Then a mathematical method to reflect the test results on the fragility update is developed. A Bayesian method is used for the fragility update procedure. Since a lognormal distribution that is used for the fragility model does not have a Bayes conjugate function, a parameterization method is proposed so that the posterior distribution expresses the characteristics of the fragility. The information entropy is used as the figure-of-merit to express importance of obtained evidence. It is found that the information entropy is strongly associated with the uncertainty of the fragility. (author)

  17. Structure of incommensurate ammonium tetrafluoroberyllate studied by structure refinements and the maximum entropy method

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Palatinus, Lukáš; Amami, M.; van Smaalen, S.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 60, - (2004), s. 127-137 ISSN 0108-7681 Grant - others:DFG(DE) XX Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1010914 Keywords : incommensurate modulation * superspace * maximum entropy method Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 5.418, year: 2004

  18. Incommensurate modulations made visible by the Maximum Entropy Method in superspace

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Palatinus, Lukáš; van Smaalen, S.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 219, - (2004), s. 719-729 ISSN 0044-2968 Grant - others:DFG(DE) XX Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1010914 Keywords : Maximum Entropy Method * modulated structures * charge density Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 1.390, year: 2004

  19. The prior-derived F constraints in the maximum-entropy method

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Palatinus, Lukáš; van Smaalen, S.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 61, - (2005), s. 363-372 ISSN 0108-7673 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10100521 Keywords : charge density * maximum-entropy method * sodium nitrite Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 1.791, year: 2005

  20. The generalized F constraint in the maximum-entropy method - a study on simulated data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Palatinus, Lukáš; van Smaalen, S.

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 58, - (2002), s. 559-567 ISSN 0108-7673 Grant - others:DFG(DE) XX Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1010914 Keywords : maximum-entropy method * electron density * oxalic acid Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 1.417, year: 2002

  1. Application of the method of maximum likelihood to the determination of cepheid radii

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balona, L.A.

    1977-01-01

    A method is described whereby the radius of any pulsating star can be obtained by applying the Principle of Maximum Likelihood. The relative merits of this method and of the usual Baade-Wesselink method are discussed in an Appendix. The new method is applied to 54 well-observed cepheids which include a number of spectroscopic binaries and two W Vir stars. An empirical period-radius relation is constructed and discussed in terms of two recent period-luminosity-colour calibrations. It is shown that the new method gives radii with an error of no more than 10 per cent. (author)

  2. Performance Analysis of a Maximum Power Point Tracking Technique using Silver Mean Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shobha Rani Depuru

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The proposed paper presents a simple and particularly efficacious Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT algorithm based on Silver Mean Method (SMM. This method operates by choosing a search interval from the P-V characteristics of the given solar array and converges to MPP of the Solar Photo-Voltaic (SPV system by shrinking its interval. After achieving the maximum power, the algorithm stops shrinking and maintains constant voltage until the next interval is decided. The tracking capability efficiency and performance analysis of the proposed algorithm are validated by the simulation and experimental results with a 100W solar panel for variable temperature and irradiance conditions. The results obtained confirm that even without any perturbation and observation process, the proposed method still outperforms the traditional perturb and observe (P&O method by demonstrating far better steady state output, more accuracy and higher efficiency.

  3. A Modified Levenberg-Marquardt Method for Nonsmooth Equations with Finitely Many Maximum Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shou-qiang Du

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available For solving nonsmooth systems of equations, the Levenberg-Marquardt method and its variants are of particular importance because of their locally fast convergent rates. Finitely many maximum functions systems are very useful in the study of nonlinear complementarity problems, variational inequality problems, Karush-Kuhn-Tucker systems of nonlinear programming problems, and many problems in mechanics and engineering. In this paper, we present a modified Levenberg-Marquardt method for nonsmooth equations with finitely many maximum functions. Under mild assumptions, the present method is shown to be convergent Q-linearly. Some numerical results comparing the proposed method with classical reformulations indicate that the modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm works quite well in practice.

  4. DRABAL: novel method to mine large high-throughput screening assays using Bayesian active learning

    KAUST Repository

    Soufan, Othman

    2016-11-10

    Background Mining high-throughput screening (HTS) assays is key for enhancing decisions in the area of drug repositioning and drug discovery. However, many challenges are encountered in the process of developing suitable and accurate methods for extracting useful information from these assays. Virtual screening and a wide variety of databases, methods and solutions proposed to-date, did not completely overcome these challenges. This study is based on a multi-label classification (MLC) technique for modeling correlations between several HTS assays, meaning that a single prediction represents a subset of assigned correlated labels instead of one label. Thus, the devised method provides an increased probability for more accurate predictions of compounds that were not tested in particular assays. Results Here we present DRABAL, a novel MLC solution that incorporates structure learning of a Bayesian network as a step to model dependency between the HTS assays. In this study, DRABAL was used to process more than 1.4 million interactions of over 400,000 compounds and analyze the existing relationships between five large HTS assays from the PubChem BioAssay Database. Compared to different MLC methods, DRABAL significantly improves the F1Score by about 22%, on average. We further illustrated usefulness and utility of DRABAL through screening FDA approved drugs and reported ones that have a high probability to interact with several targets, thus enabling drug-multi-target repositioning. Specifically DRABAL suggests the Thiabendazole drug as a common activator of the NCP1 and Rab-9A proteins, both of which are designed to identify treatment modalities for the Niemann–Pick type C disease. Conclusion We developed a novel MLC solution based on a Bayesian active learning framework to overcome the challenge of lacking fully labeled training data and exploit actual dependencies between the HTS assays. The solution is motivated by the need to model dependencies between existing

  5. A functional-dependencies-based Bayesian networks learning method and its application in a mobile commerce system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Stephen Shaoyi; Wang, Huai Qing; Li, Qiu Dan; Liu, Wei Yi

    2006-06-01

    This paper presents a new method for learning Bayesian networks from functional dependencies (FD) and third normal form (3NF) tables in relational databases. The method sets up a linkage between the theory of relational databases and probabilistic reasoning models, which is interesting and useful especially when data are incomplete and inaccurate. The effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method is demonstrated by its implementation in a mobile commerce system.

  6. Use of the maximum entropy method in X-ray astronomy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willingale, R.

    1981-01-01

    An algorithm used to apply the maximum entropy method in X-ray astronomy is described. It is easy to programme on a digital computer and fast enough to allow processing of two-dimensional images. The method gives good noise suppression without loss of instrumental resolution and has been successfully applied to several data analysis problems in X-ray astronomy. The restoration of a high-resolution image from the Einstein Observatory demonstrates the use of the algorithm. (author)

  7. Maximum Entropy Method in Moessbauer Spectroscopy - a Problem of Magnetic Texture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Satula, D.; Szymanski, K.; Dobrzynski, L.

    2011-01-01

    A reconstruction of the three dimensional distribution of the hyperfine magnetic field, isomer shift and texture parameter z from the Moessbauer spectra by the maximum entropy method is presented. The method was tested on the simulated spectrum consisting of two Gaussian hyperfine field distributions with different values of the texture parameters. It is shown that proper prior has to be chosen in order to arrive at the physically meaningful results. (authors)

  8. Using Bayesian methods to predict climate impacts on groundwater availability and agricultural production in Punjab, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, T. A.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.

    2015-12-01

    Lasting success of the Green Revolution in Punjab, India relies on continued availability of local water resources. Supplying primarily rice and wheat for the rest of India, Punjab supports crop irrigation with a canal system and groundwater, which is vastly over-exploited. The detailed data required to physically model future impacts on water supplies agricultural production is not readily available for this region, therefore we use Bayesian methods to estimate hydrologic properties and irrigation requirements for an under-constrained mass balance model. Using measured values of historical precipitation, total canal water delivery, crop yield, and water table elevation, we present a method using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to solve for a distribution of values for each unknown parameter in a conceptual mass balance model. Due to heterogeneity across the state, and the resolution of input data, we estimate model parameters at the district-scale using spatial pooling. The resulting model is used to predict the impact of precipitation change scenarios on groundwater availability under multiple cropping options. Predicted groundwater declines vary across the state, suggesting that crop selection and water management strategies should be determined at a local scale. This computational method can be applied in data-scarce regions across the world, where water resource management is required to resolve competition between food security and available resources in a changing climate.

  9. An automated method for estimating reliability of grid systems using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doguc, Ozge; Emmanuel Ramirez-Marquez, Jose

    2012-01-01

    Grid computing has become relevant due to its applications to large-scale resource sharing, wide-area information transfer, and multi-institutional collaborating. In general, in grid computing a service requests the use of a set of resources, available in a grid, to complete certain tasks. Although analysis tools and techniques for these types of systems have been studied, grid reliability analysis is generally computation-intensive to obtain due to the complexity of the system. Moreover, conventional reliability models have some common assumptions that cannot be applied to the grid systems. Therefore, new analytical methods are needed for effective and accurate assessment of grid reliability. This study presents a new method for estimating grid service reliability, which does not require prior knowledge about the grid system structure unlike the previous studies. Moreover, the proposed method does not rely on any assumptions about the link and node failure rates. This approach is based on a data-mining algorithm, the K2, to discover the grid system structure from raw historical system data, that allows to find minimum resource spanning trees (MRST) within the grid then, uses Bayesian networks (BN) to model the MRST and estimate grid service reliability.

  10. A comparative study of the maximum power point tracking methods for PV systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Yali; Li, Ming; Ji, Xu; Luo, Xi; Wang, Meidi; Zhang, Ying

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • An improved maximum power point tracking method for PV system was proposed. • Theoretical derivation procedure of the proposed method was provided. • Simulation models of MPPT trackers were established based on MATLAB/Simulink. • Experiments were conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed MPPT method. - Abstract: Maximum power point tracking (MPPT) algorithms play an important role in the optimization of the power and efficiency of a photovoltaic (PV) generation system. According to the contradiction of the classical Perturb and Observe (P and Oa) method between the corresponding speed and the tracking accuracy on steady-state, an improved P and O (P and Ob) method has been put forward in this paper by using the Atken interpolation algorithm. To validate the correctness and performance of the proposed method, simulation and experimental study have been implemented. Simulation models of classical P and Oa method and improved P and Ob method have been established by MATLAB/Simulink to analyze each technique under varying solar irradiation and temperature. The experimental results show that the tracking efficiency of P and Ob method is an average of 93% compared to 72% for P and Oa method, this conclusion basically agree with the simulation study. Finally, we proposed the applicable conditions and scope of these MPPT methods in the practical application

  11. The Local Maximum Clustering Method and Its Application in Microarray Gene Expression Data Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Yidong

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available An unsupervised data clustering method, called the local maximum clustering (LMC method, is proposed for identifying clusters in experiment data sets based on research interest. A magnitude property is defined according to research purposes, and data sets are clustered around each local maximum of the magnitude property. By properly defining a magnitude property, this method can overcome many difficulties in microarray data clustering such as reduced projection in similarities, noises, and arbitrary gene distribution. To critically evaluate the performance of this clustering method in comparison with other methods, we designed three model data sets with known cluster distributions and applied the LMC method as well as the hierarchic clustering method, the -mean clustering method, and the self-organized map method to these model data sets. The results show that the LMC method produces the most accurate clustering results. As an example of application, we applied the method to cluster the leukemia samples reported in the microarray study of Golub et al. (1999.

  12. Bayesian methods outperform parsimony but at the expense of precision in the estimation of phylogeny from discrete morphological data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, Joseph E; Puttick, Mark N; Parry, Luke; Tanner, Alastair R; Tarver, James E; Fleming, James; Pisani, Davide; Donoghue, Philip C J

    2016-04-01

    Different analytical methods can yield competing interpretations of evolutionary history and, currently, there is no definitive method for phylogenetic reconstruction using morphological data. Parsimony has been the primary method for analysing morphological data, but there has been a resurgence of interest in the likelihood-based Mk-model. Here, we test the performance of the Bayesian implementation of the Mk-model relative to both equal and implied-weight implementations of parsimony. Using simulated morphological data, we demonstrate that the Mk-model outperforms equal-weights parsimony in terms of topological accuracy, and implied-weights performs the most poorly. However, the Mk-model produces phylogenies that have less resolution than parsimony methods. This difference in the accuracy and precision of parsimony and Bayesian approaches to topology estimation needs to be considered when selecting a method for phylogeny reconstruction. © 2016 The Authors.

  13. bNEAT: a Bayesian network method for detecting epistatic interactions in genome-wide association studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Xue-wen

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Detecting epistatic interactions plays a significant role in improving pathogenesis, prevention, diagnosis and treatment of complex human diseases. A recent study in automatic detection of epistatic interactions shows that Markov Blanket-based methods are capable of finding genetic variants strongly associated with common diseases and reducing false positives when the number of instances is large. Unfortunately, a typical dataset from genome-wide association studies consists of very limited number of examples, where current methods including Markov Blanket-based method may perform poorly. Results To address small sample problems, we propose a Bayesian network-based approach (bNEAT to detect epistatic interactions. The proposed method also employs a Branch-and-Bound technique for learning. We apply the proposed method to simulated datasets based on four disease models and a real dataset. Experimental results show that our method outperforms Markov Blanket-based methods and other commonly-used methods, especially when the number of samples is small. Conclusions Our results show bNEAT can obtain a strong power regardless of the number of samples and is especially suitable for detecting epistatic interactions with slight or no marginal effects. The merits of the proposed approach lie in two aspects: a suitable score for Bayesian network structure learning that can reflect higher-order epistatic interactions and a heuristic Bayesian network structure learning method.

  14. Maximum Likelihood Method for Predicting Environmental Conditions from Assemblage Composition: The R Package bio.infer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lester L. Yuan

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a brief introduction to the R package bio.infer, a set of scripts that facilitates the use of maximum likelihood (ML methods for predicting environmental conditions from assemblage composition. Environmental conditions can often be inferred from only biological data, and these inferences are useful when other sources of data are unavailable. ML prediction methods are statistically rigorous and applicable to a broader set of problems than more commonly used weighted averaging techniques. However, ML methods require a substantially greater investment of time to program algorithms and to perform computations. This package is designed to reduce the effort required to apply ML prediction methods.

  15. Afrika Statistika ISSN 2316-090X Comparison of the maximum ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    †Badji-Mokhtar University Department of Mathematics B.P.12, Annaba 23000. Algeria. ‡Laboratory of ... Using the maximum likelihood method and the Bayesian approach, we estimate the parameters and ...... Japan Statist. Soc. 14. 145-155.

  16. Maximum photovoltaic power tracking for the PV array using the fractional-order incremental conductance method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Chia-Hung; Huang, Cong-Hui; Du, Yi-Chun; Chen, Jian-Liung

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → The FOICM can shorten the tracking time less than traditional methods. → The proposed method can work under lower solar radiation including thin and heavy clouds. → The FOICM algorithm can achieve MPPT for radiation and temperature changes. → It is easy to implement in a single-chip microcontroller or embedded system. -- Abstract: This paper proposes maximum photovoltaic power tracking (MPPT) for the photovoltaic (PV) array using the fractional-order incremental conductance method (FOICM). Since the PV array has low conversion efficiency, and the output power of PV array depends on the operation environments, such as various solar radiation, environment temperature, and weather conditions. Maximum charging power can be increased to a battery using a MPPT algorithm. The energy conversion of the absorbed solar light and cell temperature is directly transferred to the semiconductor, but electricity conduction has anomalous diffusion phenomena in inhomogeneous material. FOICM can provide a dynamic mathematical model to describe non-linear characteristics. The fractional-order incremental change as dynamic variable is used to adjust the PV array voltage toward the maximum power point. For a small-scale PV conversion system, the proposed method is validated by simulation with different operation environments. Compared with traditional methods, experimental results demonstrate the short tracking time and the practicality in MPPT of PV array.

  17. A Bayesian nonrigid registration method to enhance intraoperative target definition in image-guided prostate procedures through uncertainty characterization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pursley, Jennifer; Risholm, Petter; Fedorov, Andriy; Tuncali, Kemal; Fennessy, Fiona M.; Wells, William M. III; Tempany, Clare M.; Cormack, Robert A.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: This study introduces a probabilistic nonrigid registration method for use in image-guided prostate brachytherapy. Intraoperative imaging for prostate procedures, usually transrectal ultrasound (TRUS), is typically inferior to diagnostic-quality imaging of the pelvis such as endorectal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). MR images contain superior detail of the prostate boundaries and provide substructure features not otherwise visible. Previous efforts to register diagnostic prostate images with the intraoperative coordinate system have been deterministic and did not offer a measure of the registration uncertainty. The authors developed a Bayesian registration method to estimate the posterior distribution on deformations and provide a case-specific measure of the associated registration uncertainty. Methods: The authors adapted a biomechanical-based probabilistic nonrigid method to register diagnostic to intraoperative images by aligning a physician's segmentations of the prostate in the two images. The posterior distribution was characterized with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method; the maximum a posteriori deformation and the associated uncertainty were estimated from the collection of deformation samples drawn from the posterior distribution. The authors validated the registration method using a dataset created from ten patients with MRI-guided prostate biopsies who had both diagnostic and intraprocedural 3 Tesla MRI scans. The accuracy and precision of the estimated posterior distribution on deformations were evaluated from two predictive distance distributions: between the deformed central zone-peripheral zone (CZ-PZ) interface and the physician-labeled interface, and based on physician-defined landmarks. Geometric margins on the registration of the prostate's peripheral zone were determined from the posterior predictive distance to the CZ-PZ interface separately for the base, mid-gland, and apical regions of the prostate. Results: The authors observed

  18. Digitized Onondaga Lake Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations and Model Simulated Values using Bayesian Monte Carlo Methods

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The dataset is lake dissolved oxygen concentrations obtained form plots published by Gelda et al. (1996) and lake reaeration model simulated values using Bayesian...

  19. WMAXC: a weighted maximum clique method for identifying condition-specific sub-network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bayarbaatar Amgalan

    Full Text Available Sub-networks can expose complex patterns in an entire bio-molecular network by extracting interactions that depend on temporal or condition-specific contexts. When genes interact with each other during cellular processes, they may form differential co-expression patterns with other genes across different cell states. The identification of condition-specific sub-networks is of great importance in investigating how a living cell adapts to environmental changes. In this work, we propose the weighted MAXimum clique (WMAXC method to identify a condition-specific sub-network. WMAXC first proposes scoring functions that jointly measure condition-specific changes to both individual genes and gene-gene co-expressions. It then employs a weaker formula of a general maximum clique problem and relates the maximum scored clique of a weighted graph to the optimization of a quadratic objective function under sparsity constraints. We combine a continuous genetic algorithm and a projection procedure to obtain a single optimal sub-network that maximizes the objective function (scoring function over the standard simplex (sparsity constraints. We applied the WMAXC method to both simulated data and real data sets of ovarian and prostate cancer. Compared with previous methods, WMAXC selected a large fraction of cancer-related genes, which were enriched in cancer-related pathways. The results demonstrated that our method efficiently captured a subset of genes relevant under the investigated condition.

  20. A maximum-principle preserving finite element method for scalar conservation equations

    KAUST Repository

    Guermond, Jean-Luc

    2014-04-01

    This paper introduces a first-order viscosity method for the explicit approximation of scalar conservation equations with Lipschitz fluxes using continuous finite elements on arbitrary grids in any space dimension. Provided the lumped mass matrix is positive definite, the method is shown to satisfy the local maximum principle under a usual CFL condition. The method is independent of the cell type; for instance, the mesh can be a combination of tetrahedra, hexahedra, and prisms in three space dimensions. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

  1. Nuclear Enhanced X-ray Maximum Entropy Method Used to Analyze Local Distortions in Simple Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Sebastian; Bindzus, Niels; Christensen, Mogens

    We introduce a novel method for reconstructing pseudo nuclear density distributions (NDDs): Nuclear Enhanced X-ray Maximum Entropy Method (NEXMEM). NEXMEM offers an alternative route to experimental NDDs, exploiting the superior quality of synchrotron X-ray data compared to neutron data. The method...... proposed to result from anharmonic phonon scattering or from local fluctuating dipoles on the Pb site.[1,2] No macroscopic symmetry change are associated with these effects, rendering them invisible to conventional crystallographic techniques. For this reason PbX was until recently believed to adopt...

  2. The unfolding of NaI(Tl) γ-ray spectrum based on maximum likelihood method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Qingxian; Ge Liangquan; Gu Yi; Zeng Guoqiang; Lin Yanchang; Wang Guangxi

    2011-01-01

    NaI(Tl) detectors, having a good detection efficiency, are used to detect gamma rays in field surveys. But the poor energy resolution hinders their applications, despite the use of traditional methods to resolve the overlapped gamma-ray peaks. In this paper, the maximum likelihood (ML) solution is used to resolve the spectrum. The ML method,which is capable of decomposing the peaks in energy difference of over 2/3 FWHM, is applied to scale NaI(Tl) the spectrometer. The result shows that the net area is in proportion to the content of isotopes and the precision of scaling is better than the stripping ration method. (authors)

  3. A maximum-principle preserving finite element method for scalar conservation equations

    KAUST Repository

    Guermond, Jean-Luc; Nazarov, Murtazo

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces a first-order viscosity method for the explicit approximation of scalar conservation equations with Lipschitz fluxes using continuous finite elements on arbitrary grids in any space dimension. Provided the lumped mass matrix is positive definite, the method is shown to satisfy the local maximum principle under a usual CFL condition. The method is independent of the cell type; for instance, the mesh can be a combination of tetrahedra, hexahedra, and prisms in three space dimensions. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

  4. Downstream-Conditioned Maximum Entropy Method for Exit Boundary Conditions in the Lattice Boltzmann Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier A. Dottori

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A method for modeling outflow boundary conditions in the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM based on the maximization of the local entropy is presented. The maximization procedure is constrained by macroscopic values and downstream components. The method is applied to fully developed boundary conditions of the Navier-Stokes equations in rectangular channels. Comparisons are made with other alternative methods. In addition, the new downstream-conditioned entropy is studied and it was found that there is a correlation with the velocity gradient during the flow development.

  5. Population pharmacokinetics and maximum a posteriori probability Bayesian estimator of abacavir: application of individualized therapy in HIV-infected infants and toddlers.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, W.; Cella, M.; Pasqua, O. Della; Burger, D.M.; Jacqz-Aigrain, E.

    2012-01-01

    WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT: Abacavir is used to treat HIV infection in both adults and children. The recommended paediatric dose is 8 mg kg(-1) twice daily up to a maximum of 300 mg twice daily. Weight was identified as the central covariate influencing pharmacokinetics of abacavir in

  6. Short-time maximum entropy method analysis of molecular dynamics simulation: Unimolecular decomposition of formic acid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Osamu; Nomura, Tetsuo; Tabayashi, Kiyohiko; Yamasaki, Katsuyoshi

    2008-07-01

    We performed spectral analysis by using the maximum entropy method instead of the traditional Fourier transform technique to investigate the short-time behavior in molecular systems, such as the energy transfer between vibrational modes and chemical reactions. This procedure was applied to direct ab initio molecular dynamics calculations for the decomposition of formic acid. More reactive trajectories of dehydrolation than those of decarboxylation were obtained for Z-formic acid, which was consistent with the prediction of previous theoretical and experimental studies. Short-time maximum entropy method analyses were performed for typical reactive and non-reactive trajectories. Spectrograms of a reactive trajectory were obtained; these clearly showed the reactant, transient, and product regions, especially for the dehydrolation path.

  7. Identifying critical constraints for the maximum loadability of electric power systems - analysis via interior point method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barboza, Luciano Vitoria [Sul-riograndense Federal Institute for Education, Science and Technology (IFSul), Pelotas, RS (Brazil)], E-mail: luciano@pelotas.ifsul.edu.br

    2009-07-01

    This paper presents an overview about the maximum load ability problem and aims to study the main factors that limit this load ability. Specifically this study focuses its attention on determining which electric system buses influence directly on the power demand supply. The proposed approach uses the conventional maximum load ability method modelled by an optimization problem. The solution of this model is performed using the Interior Point methodology. As consequence of this solution method, the Lagrange multipliers are used as parameters that identify the probable 'bottlenecks' in the electric power system. The study also shows the relationship between the Lagrange multipliers and the cost function in the Interior Point optimization interpreted like sensitivity parameters. In order to illustrate the proposed methodology, the approach was applied to an IEEE test system and to assess its performance, a real equivalent electric system from the South- Southeast region of Brazil was simulated. (author)

  8. Itô-SDE MCMC method for Bayesian characterization of errors associated with data limitations in stochastic expansion methods for uncertainty quantification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnst, M.; Abello Álvarez, B.; Ponthot, J.-P.; Boman, R.

    2017-11-01

    This paper is concerned with the characterization and the propagation of errors associated with data limitations in polynomial-chaos-based stochastic methods for uncertainty quantification. Such an issue can arise in uncertainty quantification when only a limited amount of data is available. When the available information does not suffice to accurately determine the probability distributions that must be assigned to the uncertain variables, the Bayesian method for assigning these probability distributions becomes attractive because it allows the stochastic model to account explicitly for insufficiency of the available information. In previous work, such applications of the Bayesian method had already been implemented by using the Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In this paper, we present an alternative implementation, which uses an alternative MCMC method built around an Itô stochastic differential equation (SDE) that is ergodic for the Bayesian posterior. We draw together from the mathematics literature a number of formal properties of this Itô SDE that lend support to its use in the implementation of the Bayesian method, and we describe its discretization, including the choice of the free parameters, by using the implicit Euler method. We demonstrate the proposed methodology on a problem of uncertainty quantification in a complex nonlinear engineering application relevant to metal forming.

  9. A hierarchical method for Bayesian inference of rate parameters from shock tube data: Application to the study of the reaction of hydroxyl with 2-methylfuran

    KAUST Repository

    Kim, Daesang; El Gharamti, Iman; Hantouche, Mireille; Elwardani, Ahmed Elsaid; Farooq, Aamir; Bisetti, Fabrizio; Knio, Omar

    2017-01-01

    We developed a novel two-step hierarchical method for the Bayesian inference of the rate parameters of a target reaction from time-resolved concentration measurements in shock tubes. The method was applied to the calibration of the parameters

  10. Critical Assessment of the Surface Tension determined by the Maximum Pressure Bubble Method

    OpenAIRE

    Benedetto, Franco Emmanuel; Zolotucho, Hector; Prado, Miguel Oscar

    2015-01-01

    The main factors that influence the value of surface tension of a liquid measured with the Maximum Pressure Bubble Method are critically evaluated. We present experimental results showing the effect of capillary diameter, capillary depth, bubble spheroidicity and liquid density at room temperature. We show that the decrease of bubble spheroidicity due to increase of capillary immersion depth is not sufficient to explain the deviations found in the measured surface tension values. Thus, we pro...

  11. Lattice Field Theory with the Sign Problem and the Maximum Entropy Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masahiro Imachi

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available Although numerical simulation in lattice field theory is one of the most effective tools to study non-perturbative properties of field theories, it faces serious obstacles coming from the sign problem in some theories such as finite density QCD and lattice field theory with the θ term. We reconsider this problem from the point of view of the maximum entropy method.

  12. Development of A Bayesian Geostatistical Data Assimilation Method and Application to the Hanford 300 Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Haruko

    Probabilistic risk assessment of groundwater contamination requires us to incorporate large and diverse datasets at the site into the stochastic modeling of flow and transport for prediction. In quantifying the uncertainty in our predictions, we must not only combine the best estimates of the parameters based on each dataset, but also integrate the uncertainty associated with each dataset caused by measurement errors and limited number of measurements. This dissertation presents a Bayesian geostatistical data assimilation method that integrates various types of field data for characterizing heterogeneous hydrological properties. It quantifies the parameter uncertainty as a posterior distribution conditioned on all the datasets, which can be directly used in stochastic simulations to compute possible outcomes of flow and transport processes. The goal of this framework is to remove the discontinuity between data analysis and prediction. Such a direct connection between data and prediction also makes it possible to evaluate the worth of each dataset or combined worth of multiple datasets. The synthetic studies described here confirm that the data assimilation method introduced in this dissertation successfully captures the true parameter values and predicted values within the posterior distribution. The shape of the inferred posterior distributions from the method indicates the importance of estimating the entire distribution in fully accounting for parameter uncertainty. The method is then applied to integrate multiple types of datasets at the Hanford 300 Area for characterizing a three-dimensional heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity field. Comparing the results based on the different numbers or combinations of datasets shows that increasing data do not always contribute in a straightforward way to improving the posterior distribution: increasing numbers of the same data type would not necessarily be beneficial above a certain number, and also the combined effect of

  13. Prediction of Nepsilon-acetylation on internal lysines implemented in Bayesian Discriminant Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ao; Xue, Yu; Jin, Changjiang; Wang, Minghui; Yao, Xuebiao

    2006-12-01

    Protein acetylation is an important and reversible post-translational modification (PTM), and it governs a variety of cellular dynamics and plasticity. Experimental identification of acetylation sites is labor-intensive and often limited by the availability of reagents such as acetyl-specific antibodies and optimization of enzymatic reactions. Computational analyses may facilitate the identification of potential acetylation sites and provide insights into further experimentation. In this manuscript, we present a novel protein acetylation prediction program named PAIL, prediction of acetylation on internal lysines, implemented in a BDM (Bayesian Discriminant Method) algorithm. The accuracies of PAIL are 85.13%, 87.97%, and 89.21% at low, medium, and high thresholds, respectively. Both Jack-Knife validation and n-fold cross-validation have been performed to show that PAIL is accurate and robust. Taken together, we propose that PAIL is a novel predictor for identification of protein acetylation sites and may serve as an important tool to study the function of protein acetylation. PAIL has been implemented in PHP and is freely available on a web server at: http://bioinformatics.lcd-ustc.org/pail.

  14. Prediction of Nε-acetylation on internal lysines implemented in Bayesian Discriminant Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ao; Xue, Yu; Jin, Changjiang; Wang, Minghui; Yao, Xuebiao

    2007-01-01

    Protein acetylation is an important and reversible post-translational modification (PTM), and it governs a variety of cellular dynamics and plasticity. Experimental identification of acetylation sites is labor-intensive and often limited by the availability reagents such as acetyl-specific antibodies and optimization of enzymatic reactions. Computational analyses may facilitate the identification of potential acetylation sites and provide insights into further experimentation. In this manuscript, we present a novel protein acetylation prediction program named PAIL, prediction of acetylation on internal lysines, implemented in a BDM (Bayesian Discriminant Method) algorithm. The accuracies of PAIL are 85.13%, 87.97% and 89.21% at low, medium and high thresholds, respectively. Both Jack-Knife validation and n-fold cross validation have been performed to show that PAIL is accurate and robust. Taken together, we propose that PAIL is a novel predictor for identification of protein acetylation sites and may serve as an important tool to study the function of protein acetylation. PAIL has been implemented in PHP and is freely available on a web server at: http://bioinformatics.lcd-ustc.org/pail. PMID:17045240

  15. Alternative method of highway traffic safety analysis for developing countries using delphi technique and Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mbakwe, Anthony C; Saka, Anthony A; Choi, Keechoo; Lee, Young-Jae

    2016-08-01

    Highway traffic accidents all over the world result in more than 1.3 million fatalities annually. An alarming number of these fatalities occurs in developing countries. There are many risk factors that are associated with frequent accidents, heavy loss of lives, and property damage in developing countries. Unfortunately, poor record keeping practices are very difficult obstacle to overcome in striving to obtain a near accurate casualty and safety data. In light of the fact that there are numerous accident causes, any attempts to curb the escalating death and injury rates in developing countries must include the identification of the primary accident causes. This paper, therefore, seeks to show that the Delphi Technique is a suitable alternative method that can be exploited in generating highway traffic accident data through which the major accident causes can be identified. In order to authenticate the technique used, Korea, a country that underwent similar problems when it was in its early stages of development in addition to the availability of excellent highway safety records in its database, is chosen and utilized for this purpose. Validation of the methodology confirms the technique is suitable for application in developing countries. Furthermore, the Delphi Technique, in combination with the Bayesian Network Model, is utilized in modeling highway traffic accidents and forecasting accident rates in the countries of research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Bayesian statistics an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Peter M

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel

  17. Credal Networks under Maximum Entropy

    OpenAIRE

    Lukasiewicz, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    We apply the principle of maximum entropy to select a unique joint probability distribution from the set of all joint probability distributions specified by a credal network. In detail, we start by showing that the unique joint distribution of a Bayesian tree coincides with the maximum entropy model of its conditional distributions. This result, however, does not hold anymore for general Bayesian networks. We thus present a new kind of maximum entropy models, which are computed sequentially. ...

  18. Learning to Recommend Point-of-Interest with the Weighted Bayesian Personalized Ranking Method in LBSNs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Guo

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Point-of-interest (POI recommendation has been well studied in recent years. However, most of the existing methods focus on the recommendation scenarios where users can provide explicit feedback. In most cases, however, the feedback is not explicit, but implicit. For example, we can only get a user’s check-in behaviors from the history of what POIs she/he has visited, but never know how much she/he likes and why she/he does not like them. Recently, some researchers have noticed this problem and began to learn the user preferences from the partial order of POIs. However, these works give equal weight to each POI pair and cannot distinguish the contributions from different POI pairs. Intuitively, for the two POIs in a POI pair, the larger the frequency difference of being visited and the farther the geographical distance between them, the higher the contribution of this POI pair to the ranking function. Based on the above observations, we propose a weighted ranking method for POI recommendation. Specifically, we first introduce a Bayesian personalized ranking criterion designed for implicit feedback to POI recommendation. To fully utilize the partial order of POIs, we then treat the cost function in a weighted way, that is give each POI pair a different weight according to their frequency of being visited and the geographical distance between them. Data analysis and experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate the existence of user preference on different POI pairs and the effectiveness of our weighted ranking method.

  19. A Laplace method for under-determined Bayesian optimal experimental designs

    KAUST Repository

    Long, Quan

    2014-12-17

    In Long et al. (2013), a new method based on the Laplace approximation was developed to accelerate the estimation of the post-experimental expected information gains (Kullback–Leibler divergence) in model parameters and predictive quantities of interest in the Bayesian framework. A closed-form asymptotic approximation of the inner integral and the order of the corresponding dominant error term were obtained in the cases where the parameters are determined by the experiment. In this work, we extend that method to the general case where the model parameters cannot be determined completely by the data from the proposed experiments. We carry out the Laplace approximations in the directions orthogonal to the null space of the Jacobian matrix of the data model with respect to the parameters, so that the information gain can be reduced to an integration against the marginal density of the transformed parameters that are not determined by the experiments. Furthermore, the expected information gain can be approximated by an integration over the prior, where the integrand is a function of the posterior covariance matrix projected over the aforementioned orthogonal directions. To deal with the issue of dimensionality in a complex problem, we use either Monte Carlo sampling or sparse quadratures for the integration over the prior probability density function, depending on the regularity of the integrand function. We demonstrate the accuracy, efficiency and robustness of the proposed method via several nonlinear under-determined test cases. They include the designs of the scalar parameter in a one dimensional cubic polynomial function with two unidentifiable parameters forming a linear manifold, and the boundary source locations for impedance tomography in a square domain, where the unknown parameter is the conductivity, which is represented as a random field.

  20. Maximum Simulated Likelihood and Expectation-Maximization Methods to Estimate Random Coefficients Logit with Panel Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cherchi, Elisabetta; Guevara, Cristian

    2012-01-01

    with cross-sectional or with panel data, and (d) EM systematically attained more efficient estimators than the MSL method. The results imply that if the purpose of the estimation is only to determine the ratios of the model parameters (e.g., the value of time), the EM method should be preferred. For all......The random coefficients logit model allows a more realistic representation of agents' behavior. However, the estimation of that model may involve simulation, which may become impractical with many random coefficients because of the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, the traditional maximum...... simulated likelihood (MSL) method is compared with the alternative expectation- maximization (EM) method, which does not require simulation. Previous literature had shown that for cross-sectional data, MSL outperforms the EM method in the ability to recover the true parameters and estimation time...

  1. Systematics and morphological evolution within the moss family Bryaceae: a comparison between parsimony and Bayesian methods for reconstruction of ancestral character states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Niklas; Holyoak, David T; Newton, Angela E

    2007-06-01

    The Bryaceae are a large cosmopolitan moss family including genera of significant morphological and taxonomic complexity. Phylogenetic relationships within the Bryaceae were reconstructed based on DNA sequence data from all three genomic compartments. In addition, maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference were employed to reconstruct ancestral character states of 38 morphological plus four habitat characters and eight insertion/deletion events. The recovered phylogenetic patterns are generally in accord with previous phylogenies based on chloroplast DNA sequence data and three major clades are identified. The first clade comprises Bryum bornholmense, B. rubens, B. caespiticium, and Plagiobryum. This corroborates the hypothesis suggested by previous studies that several Bryum species are more closely related to Plagiobryum than to the core Bryum species. The second clade includes Acidodontium, Anomobryum, and Haplodontium, while the third clade contains the core Bryum species plus Imbribryum. Within the latter clade, B. subapiculatum and B. tenuisetum form the sister clade to Imbribryum. Reconstructions of ancestral character states under maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference suggest fourteen morphological synapomorphies for the ingroup and synapomorphies are detected for most clades within the ingroup. Maximum parsimony and Bayesian reconstructions of ancestral character states are mostly congruent although Bayesian inference shows that the posterior probability of ancestral character states may decrease dramatically when node support is taken into account. Bayesian inference also indicates that reconstructions may be ambiguous at internal nodes for highly polymorphic characters.

  2. Maximum skin dose assessment in interventional cardiology: large area detectors and calculation methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quail, E.; Petersol, A.

    2002-01-01

    Advances in imaging technology have facilitated the development of increasingly complex radiological procedures for interventional radiology. Such interventional procedures can involve significant patient exposure, although often represent alternatives to more hazardous surgery or are the sole method for treatment. Interventional radiology is already an established part of mainstream medicine and is likely to expand further with the continuing development and adoption of new procedures. Between all medical exposures, interventional radiology is first of the list of the more expansive radiological practice in terms of effective dose per examination with a mean value of 20 mSv. Currently interventional radiology contribute 4% to the annual collective dose, in spite of contributing to total annual frequency only 0.3% but considering the perspectives of this method can be expected a large expansion of this value. In IR procedures the potential for deterministic effects on the skin is a risk to be taken into account together with stochastic long term risk. Indeed, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) in its publication No 85, affirms that the patient dose of priority concern is the absorbed dose in the area of skin that receives the maximum dose during an interventional procedure. For the mentioned reasons, in IR it is important to give to practitioners information on the dose received by the skin of the patient during the procedure. In this paper maximum local skin dose (MSD) is called the absorbed dose in the area of skin receiving the maximum dose during an interventional procedure

  3. Estimation method for first excursion probability of secondary system with impact and friction using maximum response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shigeru Aoki

    2005-01-01

    The secondary system such as pipings, tanks and other mechanical equipment is installed in the primary system such as building. The important secondary systems should be designed to maintain their function even if they are subjected to destructive earthquake excitations. The secondary system has many nonlinear characteristics. Impact and friction characteristic, which are observed in mechanical supports and joints, are common nonlinear characteristics. As impact damper and friction damper, impact and friction characteristic are used for reduction of seismic response. In this paper, analytical methods of the first excursion probability of the secondary system with impact and friction, subjected to earthquake excitation are proposed. By using the methods, the effects of impact force, gap size and friction force on the first excursion probability are examined. When the tolerance level is normalized by the maximum response of the secondary system without impact or friction characteristics, variation of the first excursion probability is very small for various values of the natural period. In order to examine the effectiveness of the proposed method, the obtained results are compared with those obtained by the simulation method. Some estimation methods for the maximum response of the secondary system with nonlinear characteristics have been developed. (author)

  4. An improved maximum power point tracking method for a photovoltaic system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouoba, David; Fakkar, Abderrahim; El Kouari, Youssef; Dkhichi, Fayrouz; Oukarfi, Benyounes

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, an improved auto-scaling variable step-size Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) method for photovoltaic (PV) system was proposed. To achieve simultaneously a fast dynamic response and stable steady-state power, a first improvement was made on the step-size scaling function of the duty cycle that controls the converter. An algorithm was secondly proposed to address wrong decision that may be made at an abrupt change of the irradiation. The proposed auto-scaling variable step-size approach was compared to some various other approaches from the literature such as: classical fixed step-size, variable step-size and a recent auto-scaling variable step-size maximum power point tracking approaches. The simulation results obtained by MATLAB/SIMULINK were given and discussed for validation.

  5. Sharp Boundary Inversion of 2D Magnetotelluric Data using Bayesian Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, S.; Huang, Q.

    2017-12-01

    Normally magnetotelluric(MT) inversion method cannot show the distribution of underground resistivity with clear boundary, even if there are obviously different blocks. Aiming to solve this problem, we develop a Bayesian structure to inverse 2D MT sharp boundary data, using boundary location and inside resistivity as the random variables. Firstly, we use other MT inversion results, like ModEM, to analyze the resistivity distribution roughly. Then, we select the suitable random variables and change its data format to traditional staggered grid parameters, which can be used to do finite difference forward part. Finally, we can shape the posterior probability density(PPD), which contains all the prior information and model-data correlation, by Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) sampling from prior distribution. The depth, resistivity and their uncertainty can be valued. It also works for sensibility estimation. We applied the method to a synthetic case, which composes two large abnormal blocks in a trivial background. We consider the boundary smooth and the near true model weight constrains that mimic joint inversion or constrained inversion, then we find that the model results a more precise and focused depth distribution. And we also test the inversion without constrains and find that the boundary could also be figured, though not as well. Both inversions have a good valuation of resistivity. The constrained result has a lower root mean square than ModEM inversion result. The data sensibility obtained via PPD shows that the resistivity is the most sensible, center depth comes second and both sides are the worst.

  6. A Bayesian method for comparing and combining binary classifiers in the absence of a gold standard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith Jonathan M

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many problems in bioinformatics involve classification based on features such as sequence, structure or morphology. Given multiple classifiers, two crucial questions arise: how does their performance compare, and how can they best be combined to produce a better classifier? A classifier can be evaluated in terms of sensitivity and specificity using benchmark, or gold standard, data, that is, data for which the true classification is known. However, a gold standard is not always available. Here we demonstrate that a Bayesian model for comparing medical diagnostics without a gold standard can be successfully applied in the bioinformatics domain, to genomic scale data sets. We present a new implementation, which unlike previous implementations is applicable to any number of classifiers. We apply this model, for the first time, to the problem of finding the globally optimal logical combination of classifiers. Results We compared three classifiers of protein subcellular localisation, and evaluated our estimates of sensitivity and specificity against estimates obtained using a gold standard. The method overestimated sensitivity and specificity with only a small discrepancy, and correctly ranked the classifiers. Diagnostic tests for swine flu were then compared on a small data set. Lastly, classifiers for a genome-wide association study of macular degeneration with 541094 SNPs were analysed. In all cases, run times were feasible, and results precise. The optimal logical combination of classifiers was also determined for all three data sets. Code and data are available from http://bioinformatics.monash.edu.au/downloads/. Conclusions The examples demonstrate the methods are suitable for both small and large data sets, applicable to the wide range of bioinformatics classification problems, and robust to dependence between classifiers. In all three test cases, the globally optimal logical combination of the classifiers was found to be

  7. Maximum Likelihood-Based Methods for Target Velocity Estimation with Distributed MIMO Radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenxin Cao

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The estimation problem for target velocity is addressed in this in the scenario with a distributed multi-input multi-out (MIMO radar system. A maximum likelihood (ML-based estimation method is derived with the knowledge of target position. Then, in the scenario without the knowledge of target position, an iterative method is proposed to estimate the target velocity by updating the position information iteratively. Moreover, the Carmér-Rao Lower Bounds (CRLBs for both scenarios are derived, and the performance degradation of velocity estimation without the position information is also expressed. Simulation results show that the proposed estimation methods can approach the CRLBs, and the velocity estimation performance can be further improved by increasing either the number of radar antennas or the information accuracy of the target position. Furthermore, compared with the existing methods, a better estimation performance can be achieved.

  8. Application of Bayesian methods to habitat selection modeling of the northern spotted owl in California: new statistical methods for wildlife research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard B. Stauffer; Cynthia J. Zabel; Jeffrey R. Dunk

    2005-01-01

    We compared a set of competing logistic regression habitat selection models for Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in California. The habitat selection models were estimated, compared, evaluated, and tested using multiple sample datasets collected on federal forestlands in northern California. We used Bayesian methods in interpreting...

  9. Maximum Power Point Tracking Control of a Thermoelectric Generation System Using the Extremum Seeking Control Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ssennoga Twaha

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes and implements maximum power Point Tracking (MPPT control on thermoelectric generation system using an extremum seeking control (ESC algorithm. The MPPT is applied to guarantee maximum power extraction from the TEG system. The work has been carried out through modelling of thermoelectric generator/dc-dc converter system using Matlab/Simulink. The effectiveness of ESC technique has been assessed by comparing the results with those of the Perturb and Observe (P&O MPPT method under the same operating conditions. Results indicate that ESC MPPT method extracts more power than the P&O technique, where the output power of ESC technique is higher than that of P&O by 0.47 W or 6.1% at a hot side temperature of 200 °C. It is also noted that the ESC MPPT based model is almost fourfold faster than the P&O method. This is attributed to smaller MPPT circuit of ESC compared to that of P&O, hence we conclude that the ESC MPPT method outperforms the P&O technique.

  10. Spurious Latent Class Problem in the Mixed Rasch Model: A Comparison of Three Maximum Likelihood Estimation Methods under Different Ability Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen, Sedat

    2018-01-01

    Recent research has shown that over-extraction of latent classes can be observed in the Bayesian estimation of the mixed Rasch model when the distribution of ability is non-normal. This study examined the effect of non-normal ability distributions on the number of latent classes in the mixed Rasch model when estimated with maximum likelihood…

  11. A new maximum power point method based on a sliding mode approach for solar energy harvesting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farhat, Maissa; Barambones, Oscar; Sbita, Lassaad

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Create a simple, easy of implement and accurate V_M_P_P estimator. • Stability analysis of the proposed system based on the Lyapunov’s theory. • A comparative study versus P&O, highlight SMC good performances. • Construct a new PS-SMC algorithm to include the partial shadow case. • Experimental validation of the SMC MPP tracker. - Abstract: This paper presents a photovoltaic (PV) system with a maximum power point tracking (MPPT) facility. The goal of this work is to maximize power extraction from the photovoltaic generator (PVG). This goal is achieved using a sliding mode controller (SMC) that drives a boost converter connected between the PVG and the load. The system is modeled and tested under MATLAB/SIMULINK environment. In simulation, the sliding mode controller offers fast and accurate convergence to the maximum power operating point that outperforms the well-known perturbation and observation method (P&O). The sliding mode controller performance is evaluated during steady-state, against load varying and panel partial shadow (PS) disturbances. To confirm the above conclusion, a practical implementation of the maximum power point tracker based sliding mode controller on a hardware setup is performed on a dSPACE real time digital control platform. The data acquisition and the control system are conducted all around dSPACE 1104 controller board and its RTI environment. The experimental results demonstrate the validity of the proposed control scheme over a stand-alone real photovoltaic system.

  12. Spectrum unfolding in X-ray spectrometry using the maximum entropy method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez, Jorge E.; Scot, Viviana; Di Giulio, Eugenio

    2014-01-01

    The solution of the unfolding problem is an ever-present issue in X-ray spectrometry. The maximum entropy technique solves this problem by taking advantage of some known a priori physical information and by ensuring an outcome with only positive values. This method is implemented in MAXED (MAXimum Entropy Deconvolution), a software code contained in the package UMG (Unfolding with MAXED and GRAVEL) developed at PTB and distributed by NEA Data Bank. This package contains also the code GRAVEL (used to estimate the precision of the solution). This article introduces the new code UMESTRAT (Unfolding Maximum Entropy STRATegy) which applies a semi-automatic strategy to solve the unfolding problem by using a suitable combination of MAXED and GRAVEL for applications in X-ray spectrometry. Some examples of the use of UMESTRAT are shown, demonstrating its capability to remove detector artifacts from the measured spectrum consistently with the model used for the detector response function (DRF). - Highlights: ► A new strategy to solve the unfolding problem in X-ray spectrometry is presented. ► The presented strategy uses a suitable combination of the codes MAXED and GRAVEL. ► The applied strategy provides additional information on the Detector Response Function. ► The code UMESTRAT is developed to apply this new strategy in a semi-automatic mode

  13. Estimation Methods for Non-Homogeneous Regression - Minimum CRPS vs Maximum Likelihood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebetsberger, Manuel; Messner, Jakob W.; Mayr, Georg J.; Zeileis, Achim

    2017-04-01

    Non-homogeneous regression models are widely used to statistically post-process numerical weather prediction models. Such regression models correct for errors in mean and variance and are capable to forecast a full probability distribution. In order to estimate the corresponding regression coefficients, CRPS minimization is performed in many meteorological post-processing studies since the last decade. In contrast to maximum likelihood estimation, CRPS minimization is claimed to yield more calibrated forecasts. Theoretically, both scoring rules used as an optimization score should be able to locate a similar and unknown optimum. Discrepancies might result from a wrong distributional assumption of the observed quantity. To address this theoretical concept, this study compares maximum likelihood and minimum CRPS estimation for different distributional assumptions. First, a synthetic case study shows that, for an appropriate distributional assumption, both estimation methods yield to similar regression coefficients. The log-likelihood estimator is slightly more efficient. A real world case study for surface temperature forecasts at different sites in Europe confirms these results but shows that surface temperature does not always follow the classical assumption of a Gaussian distribution. KEYWORDS: ensemble post-processing, maximum likelihood estimation, CRPS minimization, probabilistic temperature forecasting, distributional regression models

  14. Bayesian programming

    CERN Document Server

    Bessiere, Pierre; Ahuactzin, Juan Manuel; Mekhnacha, Kamel

    2013-01-01

    Probability as an Alternative to Boolean LogicWhile logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain DataEmphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean

  15. Regularization parameter selection methods for ill-posed Poisson maximum likelihood estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bardsley, Johnathan M; Goldes, John

    2009-01-01

    In image processing applications, image intensity is often measured via the counting of incident photons emitted by the object of interest. In such cases, image data noise is accurately modeled by a Poisson distribution. This motivates the use of Poisson maximum likelihood estimation for image reconstruction. However, when the underlying model equation is ill-posed, regularization is needed. Regularized Poisson likelihood estimation has been studied extensively by the authors, though a problem of high importance remains: the choice of the regularization parameter. We will present three statistically motivated methods for choosing the regularization parameter, and numerical examples will be presented to illustrate their effectiveness

  16. Maximum-likelihood methods for array processing based on time-frequency distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yimin; Mu, Weifeng; Amin, Moeness G.

    1999-11-01

    This paper proposes a novel time-frequency maximum likelihood (t-f ML) method for direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation for non- stationary signals, and compares this method with conventional maximum likelihood DOA estimation techniques. Time-frequency distributions localize the signal power in the time-frequency domain, and as such enhance the effective SNR, leading to improved DOA estimation. The localization of signals with different t-f signatures permits the division of the time-frequency domain into smaller regions, each contains fewer signals than those incident on the array. The reduction of the number of signals within different time-frequency regions not only reduces the required number of sensors, but also decreases the computational load in multi- dimensional optimizations. Compared to the recently proposed time- frequency MUSIC (t-f MUSIC), the proposed t-f ML method can be applied in coherent environments, without the need to perform any type of preprocessing that is subject to both array geometry and array aperture.

  17. Evidence of major genes affecting stress response in rainbow trout using Bayesian methods of complex segregation analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vallejo, R L; Rexroad III, C E; Silverstein, J T

    2009-01-01

    As a first step toward the genetic mapping of QTL affecting stress response variation in rainbow trout, we performed complex segregation analyses (CSA) fitting mixed inheritance models of plasma cortisol by using Bayesian methods in large full-sib families of rainbow trout. To date, no studies have...... been conducted to determine the mode of inheritance of stress response as measured by plasma cortisol response when using a crowding stress paradigm and CSA in rainbow trout. The main objective of this study was to determine the mode of inheritance of plasma cortisol after a crowding stress....... The results from fitting mixed inheritance models with Bayesian CSA suggest that 1 or more major genes with dominant cortisol-decreasing alleles and small additive genetic effects of a large number of independent genes likely underlie the genetic variation of plasma cortisol in the rainbow trout families...

  18. Comparison of P&O and INC Methods in Maximum Power Point Tracker for PV Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hesheng; Cui, Yuanhui; Zhao, Yue; Wang, Zhisen

    2018-03-01

    In the context of renewable energy, the maximum power point tracker (MPPT) is often used to increase the solar power efficiency, taking into account the randomness and volatility of solar energy due to changes in temperature and photovoltaic. In all MPPT techniques, perturb & observe and incremental conductance are widely used in MPPT controllers, because of their simplicity and ease of operation. According to the internal structure of the photovoltaic cell and the output volt-ampere characteristic, this paper established the circuit model and establishes the dynamic simulation model in Matlab/Simulink with the preparation of the s function. The perturb & observe MPPT method and the incremental conductance MPPT method were analyzed and compared by the theoretical analysis and digital simulation. The simulation results have shown that the system with INC MPPT method has better dynamic performance and improves the output power of photovoltaic power generation.

  19. Efficient method for computing the maximum-likelihood quantum state from measurements with additive Gaussian noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolin, John A; Gambetta, Jay M; Smith, Graeme

    2012-02-17

    We provide an efficient method for computing the maximum-likelihood mixed quantum state (with density matrix ρ) given a set of measurement outcomes in a complete orthonormal operator basis subject to Gaussian noise. Our method works by first changing basis yielding a candidate density matrix μ which may have nonphysical (negative) eigenvalues, and then finding the nearest physical state under the 2-norm. Our algorithm takes at worst O(d(4)) for the basis change plus O(d(3)) for finding ρ where d is the dimension of the quantum state. In the special case where the measurement basis is strings of Pauli operators, the basis change takes only O(d(3)) as well. The workhorse of the algorithm is a new linear-time method for finding the closest probability distribution (in Euclidean distance) to a set of real numbers summing to one.

  20. New Bayesian inference method using two steps of Markov chain Monte Carlo and its application to shock tube experiment data of Furan oxidation

    KAUST Repository

    Kim, Daesang; El Gharamti, Iman; Bisetti, Fabrizio; Farooq, Aamir; Knio, Omar

    2016-01-01

    A new Bayesian inference method has been developed and applied to Furan shock tube experimental data for efficient statistical inferences of the Arrhenius parameters of two OH radical consumption reactions. The collected experimental data, which

  1. Optimum Inductive Methods. A study in Inductive Probability, Bayesian Statistics, and Verisimilitude.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Festa, Roberto

    1992-01-01

    According to the Bayesian view, scientific hypotheses must be appraised in terms of their posterior probabilities relative to the available experimental data. Such posterior probabilities are derived from the prior probabilities of the hypotheses by applying Bayes'theorem. One of the most important

  2. A Bayesian analysis of rare B decays with advanced Monte Carlo methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaujean, Frederik

    2012-01-01

    Searching for new physics in rare B meson decays governed by b → s transitions, we perform a model-independent global fit of the short-distance couplings C 7 , C 9 , and C 10 of the ΔB=1 effective field theory. We assume the standard-model set of b → sγ and b → sl + l - operators with real-valued C i . A total of 59 measurements by the experiments BaBar, Belle, CDF, CLEO, and LHCb of observables in B→K * γ, B→K (*) l + l - , and B s →μ + μ - decays are used in the fit. Our analysis is the first of its kind to harness the full power of the Bayesian approach to probability theory. All main sources of theory uncertainty explicitly enter the fit in the form of nuisance parameters. We make optimal use of the experimental information to simultaneously constrain theWilson coefficients as well as hadronic form factors - the dominant theory uncertainty. Generating samples from the posterior probability distribution to compute marginal distributions and predict observables by uncertainty propagation is a formidable numerical challenge for two reasons. First, the posterior has multiple well separated maxima and degeneracies. Second, the computation of the theory predictions is very time consuming. A single posterior evaluation requires O(1s), and a few million evaluations are needed. Population Monte Carlo (PMC) provides a solution to both issues; a mixture density is iteratively adapted to the posterior, and samples are drawn in a massively parallel way using importance sampling. The major shortcoming of PMC is the need for cogent knowledge of the posterior at the initial stage. In an effort towards a general black-box Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, we present a new method to extract the necessary information in a reliable and automatic manner from Markov chains with the help of hierarchical clustering. Exploiting the latest 2012 measurements, the fit reveals a flipped-sign solution in addition to a standard-model-like solution for the couplings C i . The

  3. A Bayesian analysis of rare B decays with advanced Monte Carlo methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beaujean, Frederik

    2012-11-12

    Searching for new physics in rare B meson decays governed by b {yields} s transitions, we perform a model-independent global fit of the short-distance couplings C{sub 7}, C{sub 9}, and C{sub 10} of the {Delta}B=1 effective field theory. We assume the standard-model set of b {yields} s{gamma} and b {yields} sl{sup +}l{sup -} operators with real-valued C{sub i}. A total of 59 measurements by the experiments BaBar, Belle, CDF, CLEO, and LHCb of observables in B{yields}K{sup *}{gamma}, B{yields}K{sup (*)}l{sup +}l{sup -}, and B{sub s}{yields}{mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -} decays are used in the fit. Our analysis is the first of its kind to harness the full power of the Bayesian approach to probability theory. All main sources of theory uncertainty explicitly enter the fit in the form of nuisance parameters. We make optimal use of the experimental information to simultaneously constrain theWilson coefficients as well as hadronic form factors - the dominant theory uncertainty. Generating samples from the posterior probability distribution to compute marginal distributions and predict observables by uncertainty propagation is a formidable numerical challenge for two reasons. First, the posterior has multiple well separated maxima and degeneracies. Second, the computation of the theory predictions is very time consuming. A single posterior evaluation requires O(1s), and a few million evaluations are needed. Population Monte Carlo (PMC) provides a solution to both issues; a mixture density is iteratively adapted to the posterior, and samples are drawn in a massively parallel way using importance sampling. The major shortcoming of PMC is the need for cogent knowledge of the posterior at the initial stage. In an effort towards a general black-box Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, we present a new method to extract the necessary information in a reliable and automatic manner from Markov chains with the help of hierarchical clustering. Exploiting the latest 2012 measurements, the fit

  4. Improvement of the detector resolution in X-ray spectrometry by using the maximum entropy method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernández, Jorge E.; Scot, Viviana; Giulio, Eugenio Di; Sabbatucci, Lorenzo

    2015-01-01

    In every X-ray spectroscopy measurement the influence of the detection system causes loss of information. Different mechanisms contribute to form the so-called detector response function (DRF): the detector efficiency, the escape of photons as a consequence of photoelectric or scattering interactions, the spectrum smearing due to the energy resolution, and, in solid states detectors (SSD), the charge collection artifacts. To recover the original spectrum, it is necessary to remove the detector influence by solving the so-called inverse problem. The maximum entropy unfolding technique solves this problem by imposing a set of constraints, taking advantage of the known a priori information and preserving the positive-defined character of the X-ray spectrum. This method has been included in the tool UMESTRAT (Unfolding Maximum Entropy STRATegy), which adopts a semi-automatic strategy to solve the unfolding problem based on a suitable combination of the codes MAXED and GRAVEL, developed at PTB. In the past UMESTRAT proved the capability to resolve characteristic peaks which were revealed as overlapped by a Si SSD, giving good qualitative results. In order to obtain quantitative results, UMESTRAT has been modified to include the additional constraint of the total number of photons of the spectrum, which can be easily determined by inverting the diagonal efficiency matrix. The features of the improved code are illustrated with some examples of unfolding from three commonly used SSD like Si, Ge, and CdTe. The quantitative unfolding can be considered as a software improvement of the detector resolution. - Highlights: • Radiation detection introduces distortions in X- and Gamma-ray spectrum measurements. • UMESTRAT is a graphical tool to unfold X- and Gamma-ray spectra. • UMESTRAT uses the maximum entropy method. • UMESTRAT’s new version produces unfolded spectra with quantitative meaning. • UMESTRAT is a software tool to improve the detector resolution.

  5. Genetic Properties of Some Economic Traits in Isfahan Native Fowl Using Bayesian and REML Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salehinasab M

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present study was to estimate heritability values for some performance and egg quality traits of native fowl in Isfahan breeding center using REML and Bayesian approaches. The records were about 51521 and 975 for performance and egg quality traits, respectively. At the first step, variance components were estimated for body weight at hatch (BW0, body weight at 8 weeks of age (BW8, weight at sexual maturity (WSM, egg yolk weight (YW, egg Haugh unit and eggshell thickness, via REML approach using ASREML software. At the second step, the same traits were analyzed via Bayesian approach using Gibbs3f90 software. In both approaches six different animal models were applied and the best model was determined using likelihood ratio test (LRT and deviance information criterion (DIC for REML and Bayesian approaches, respectively. Heritability estimates for BW0, WSM and ST were the same in both approaches. For BW0, LRT and DIC indexes confirmed that the model consisting maternal genetic, permanent environmental and direct genetic effects was significantly better than other models. For WSM, a model consisting of maternal permanent environmental effect in addition to direct genetic effect was the best. For shell thickness, the basic model consisting direct genetic effect was the best. The results for BW8, YW and Haugh unit, were different between the two approaches. The reason behind this tiny differences was that the convergence could not be achieved for some models in REML approach and thus for these traits the Bayesian approach estimated the variance components more accurately. The results indicated that ignoring maternal effects, overestimates the direct genetic variance and heritability for most of the traits. Also, the Bayesian-based software could take more variance components into account.

  6. Maximum entropy methods for extracting the learned features of deep neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finnegan, Alex; Song, Jun S

    2017-10-01

    New architectures of multilayer artificial neural networks and new methods for training them are rapidly revolutionizing the application of machine learning in diverse fields, including business, social science, physical sciences, and biology. Interpreting deep neural networks, however, currently remains elusive, and a critical challenge lies in understanding which meaningful features a network is actually learning. We present a general method for interpreting deep neural networks and extracting network-learned features from input data. We describe our algorithm in the context of biological sequence analysis. Our approach, based on ideas from statistical physics, samples from the maximum entropy distribution over possible sequences, anchored at an input sequence and subject to constraints implied by the empirical function learned by a network. Using our framework, we demonstrate that local transcription factor binding motifs can be identified from a network trained on ChIP-seq data and that nucleosome positioning signals are indeed learned by a network trained on chemical cleavage nucleosome maps. Imposing a further constraint on the maximum entropy distribution also allows us to probe whether a network is learning global sequence features, such as the high GC content in nucleosome-rich regions. This work thus provides valuable mathematical tools for interpreting and extracting learned features from feed-forward neural networks.

  7. An Approximate Proximal Bundle Method to Minimize a Class of Maximum Eigenvalue Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We present an approximate nonsmooth algorithm to solve a minimization problem, in which the objective function is the sum of a maximum eigenvalue function of matrices and a convex function. The essential idea to solve the optimization problem in this paper is similar to the thought of proximal bundle method, but the difference is that we choose approximate subgradient and function value to construct approximate cutting-plane model to solve the above mentioned problem. An important advantage of the approximate cutting-plane model for objective function is that it is more stable than cutting-plane model. In addition, the approximate proximal bundle method algorithm can be given. Furthermore, the sequences generated by the algorithm converge to the optimal solution of the original problem.

  8. Measurement of the surface tension by the method of maximum gas bubble pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dugne, Jean

    1971-01-01

    A gas bubble method for measuring surface tension was studied. Theoretical investigations demonstrated that the maximum pressure can be represented by the envelope of a certain family of curves and that the physical nature of the capillary tube imposes an upper limit to its useful radius. With a given tube and a specified liquid, the dynamic evolution of the gas bubble depends only upon the variation of the mass of gas contained with time; this fact may restrict the choice of tubes. The use of one single tube requires important corrections. Computer treatment of the problem led to some accurate equations for calculating γ. Schroedinger equations and Sudgen's table are examined. The choice of tubes, the necessary corrections, density measurement, and the accuracy attainable are discussed. Experiments conducted with water and mercury using the sessile drop method and continuous recording of the pressure verified the theoretical ideas. (author) [fr

  9. Density estimation by maximum quantum entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silver, R.N.; Wallstrom, T.; Martz, H.F.

    1993-01-01

    A new Bayesian method for non-parametric density estimation is proposed, based on a mathematical analogy to quantum statistical physics. The mathematical procedure is related to maximum entropy methods for inverse problems and image reconstruction. The information divergence enforces global smoothing toward default models, convexity, positivity, extensivity and normalization. The novel feature is the replacement of classical entropy by quantum entropy, so that local smoothing is enforced by constraints on differential operators. The linear response of the estimate is proportional to the covariance. The hyperparameters are estimated by type-II maximum likelihood (evidence). The method is demonstrated on textbook data sets

  10. EQPlanar: a maximum-likelihood method for accurate organ activity estimation from whole body planar projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, N; Frey, E C; He, B; Wahl, R L

    2011-01-01

    Optimizing targeted radionuclide therapy requires patient-specific estimation of organ doses. The organ doses are estimated from quantitative nuclear medicine imaging studies, many of which involve planar whole body scans. We have previously developed the quantitative planar (QPlanar) processing method and demonstrated its ability to provide more accurate activity estimates than conventional geometric-mean-based planar (CPlanar) processing methods using physical phantom and simulation studies. The QPlanar method uses the maximum likelihood-expectation maximization algorithm, 3D organ volume of interests (VOIs), and rigorous models of physical image degrading factors to estimate organ activities. However, the QPlanar method requires alignment between the 3D organ VOIs and the 2D planar projections and assumes uniform activity distribution in each VOI. This makes application to patients challenging. As a result, in this paper we propose an extended QPlanar (EQPlanar) method that provides independent-organ rigid registration and includes multiple background regions. We have validated this method using both Monte Carlo simulation and patient data. In the simulation study, we evaluated the precision and accuracy of the method in comparison to the original QPlanar method. For the patient studies, we compared organ activity estimates at 24 h after injection with those from conventional geometric mean-based planar quantification using a 24 h post-injection quantitative SPECT reconstruction as the gold standard. We also compared the goodness of fit of the measured and estimated projections obtained from the EQPlanar method to those from the original method at four other time points where gold standard data were not available. In the simulation study, more accurate activity estimates were provided by the EQPlanar method for all the organs at all the time points compared with the QPlanar method. Based on the patient data, we concluded that the EQPlanar method provided a

  11. Bias correction for estimated QTL effects using the penalized maximum likelihood method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J; Yue, C; Zhang, Y-M

    2012-04-01

    A penalized maximum likelihood method has been proposed as an important approach to the detection of epistatic quantitative trait loci (QTL). However, this approach is not optimal in two special situations: (1) closely linked QTL with effects in opposite directions and (2) small-effect QTL, because the method produces downwardly biased estimates of QTL effects. The present study aims to correct the bias by using correction coefficients and shifting from the use of a uniform prior on the variance parameter of a QTL effect to that of a scaled inverse chi-square prior. The results of Monte Carlo simulation experiments show that the improved method increases the power from 25 to 88% in the detection of two closely linked QTL of equal size in opposite directions and from 60 to 80% in the identification of QTL with small effects (0.5% of the total phenotypic variance). We used the improved method to detect QTL responsible for the barley kernel weight trait using 145 doubled haploid lines developed in the North American Barley Genome Mapping Project. Application of the proposed method to other shrinkage estimation of QTL effects is discussed.

  12. Nonuniform Illumination Correction Algorithm for Underwater Images Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonali Sachin Sankpal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Scattering and absorption of light is main reason for limited visibility in water. The suspended particles and dissolved chemical compounds in water are also responsible for scattering and absorption of light in water. The limited visibility in water results in degradation of underwater images. The visibility can be increased by using artificial light source in underwater imaging system. But the artificial light illuminates the scene in a nonuniform fashion. It produces bright spot at the center with the dark region at surroundings. In some cases imaging system itself creates dark region in the image by producing shadow on the objects. The problem of nonuniform illumination is neglected by the researchers in most of the image enhancement techniques of underwater images. Also very few methods are discussed showing the results on color images. This paper suggests a method for nonuniform illumination correction for underwater images. The method assumes that natural underwater images are Rayleigh distributed. This paper used maximum likelihood estimation of scale parameter to map distribution of image to Rayleigh distribution. The method is compared with traditional methods for nonuniform illumination correction using no-reference image quality metrics like average luminance, average information entropy, normalized neighborhood function, average contrast, and comprehensive assessment function.

  13. The Maximum Entropy Method for Optical Spectrum Analysis of Real-Time TDDFT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toogoshi, M; Kano, S S; Zempo, Y

    2015-01-01

    The maximum entropy method (MEM) is one of the key techniques for spectral analysis. The major feature is that spectra in the low frequency part can be described by the short time-series data. Thus, we applied MEM to analyse the spectrum from the time dependent dipole moment obtained from the time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) calculation in real time. It is intensively studied for computing optical properties. In the MEM analysis, however, the maximum lag of the autocorrelation is restricted by the total number of time-series data. We proposed that, as an improved MEM analysis, we use the concatenated data set made from the several-times repeated raw data. We have applied this technique to the spectral analysis of the TDDFT dipole moment of ethylene and oligo-fluorene with n = 8. As a result, the higher resolution can be obtained, which is closer to that of FT with practically time-evoluted data as the same total number of time steps. The efficiency and the characteristic feature of this technique are presented in this paper. (paper)

  14. Evaluating a Bayesian approach to improve accuracy of individual photographic identification methods using ecological distribution data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Stafford

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Photographic identification of individual organisms can be possible from natural body markings. Data from photo-ID can be used to estimate important ecological and conservation metrics such as population sizes, home ranges or territories. However, poor quality photographs or less well-studied individuals can result in a non-unique ID, potentially confounding several similar looking individuals. Here we present a Bayesian approach that uses known data about previous sightings of individuals at specific sites as priors to help assess the problems of obtaining a non-unique ID. Using a simulation of individuals with different confidence of correct ID we evaluate the accuracy of Bayesian modified (posterior probabilities. However, in most cases, the accuracy of identification decreases. Although this technique is unsuccessful, it does demonstrate the importance of computer simulations in testing such hypotheses in ecology.

  15. Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging: a method for the application of survival analysis to high-dimensional microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raftery Adrian E

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Microarray technology is increasingly used to identify potential biomarkers for cancer prognostics and diagnostics. Previously, we have developed the iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA algorithm for use in classification. Here, we extend the iterative BMA algorithm for application to survival analysis on high-dimensional microarray data. The main goal in applying survival analysis to microarray data is to determine a highly predictive model of patients' time to event (such as death, relapse, or metastasis using a small number of selected genes. Our multivariate procedure combines the effectiveness of multiple contending models by calculating the weighted average of their posterior probability distributions. Our results demonstrate that our iterative BMA algorithm for survival analysis achieves high prediction accuracy while consistently selecting a small and cost-effective number of predictor genes. Results We applied the iterative BMA algorithm to two cancer datasets: breast cancer and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL data. On the breast cancer data, the algorithm selected a total of 15 predictor genes across 84 contending models from the training data. The maximum likelihood estimates of the selected genes and the posterior probabilities of the selected models from the training data were used to divide patients in the test (or validation dataset into high- and low-risk categories. Using the genes and models determined from the training data, we assigned patients from the test data into highly distinct risk groups (as indicated by a p-value of 7.26e-05 from the log-rank test. Moreover, we achieved comparable results using only the 5 top selected genes with 100% posterior probabilities. On the DLBCL data, our iterative BMA procedure selected a total of 25 genes across 3 contending models from the training data. Once again, we assigned the patients in the validation set to significantly distinct risk groups (p

  16. Analysis of QCD sum rule based on the maximum entropy method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gubler, Philipp

    2012-01-01

    QCD sum rule was developed about thirty years ago and has been used up to the present to calculate various physical quantities like hadrons. It has been, however, needed to assume 'pole + continuum' for the spectral function in the conventional analyses. Application of this method therefore came across with difficulties when the above assumption is not satisfied. In order to avoid this difficulty, analysis to make use of the maximum entropy method (MEM) has been developed by the present author. It is reported here how far this new method can be successfully applied. In the first section, the general feature of the QCD sum rule is introduced. In section 2, it is discussed why the analysis by the QCD sum rule based on the MEM is so effective. In section 3, the MEM analysis process is described, and in the subsection 3.1 likelihood function and prior probability are considered then in subsection 3.2 numerical analyses are picked up. In section 4, some cases of applications are described starting with ρ mesons, then charmoniums in the finite temperature and finally recent developments. Some figures of the spectral functions are shown. In section 5, summing up of the present analysis method and future view are given. (S. Funahashi)

  17. Bayesian Network Assessment Method for Civil Aviation Safety Based on Flight Delays

    OpenAIRE

    Huawei Wang; Jun Gao

    2013-01-01

    Flight delays and safety are the principal contradictions in the sound development of civil aviation. Flight delays often come up and induce civil aviation safety risk simultaneously. Based on flight delays, the random characteristics of civil aviation safety risk are analyzed. Flight delays have been deemed to a potential safety hazard. The change rules and characteristics of civil aviation safety risk based on flight delays have been analyzed. Bayesian networks (BN) have been used to build ...

  18. Imaging VLBI polarimetry data from Active Galactic Nuclei using the Maximum Entropy Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coughlan Colm P.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Mapping the relativistic jets emanating from AGN requires the use of a deconvolution algorithm to account for the effects of missing baseline spacings. The CLEAN algorithm is the most commonly used algorithm in VLBI imaging today and is suitable for imaging polarisation data. The Maximum Entropy Method (MEM is presented as an alternative with some advantages over the CLEAN algorithm, including better spatial resolution and a more rigorous and unbiased approach to deconvolution. We have developed a MEM code suitable for deconvolving VLBI polarisation data. Monte Carlo simulations investigating the performance of CLEAN and the MEM code on a variety of source types are being carried out. Real polarisation (VLBA data taken at multiple wavelengths have also been deconvolved using MEM, and several of the resulting polarisation and Faraday rotation maps are presented and discussed.

  19. Comparison of annual maximum series and partial duration series methods for modeling extreme hydrologic events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Rasmussen, Peter F.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    1997-01-01

    Two different models for analyzing extreme hydrologic events, based on, respectively, partial duration series (PDS) and annual maximum series (AMS), are compared. The PDS model assumes a generalized Pareto distribution for modeling threshold exceedances corresponding to a generalized extreme value......). In the case of ML estimation, the PDS model provides the most efficient T-year event estimator. In the cases of MOM and PWM estimation, the PDS model is generally preferable for negative shape parameters, whereas the AMS model yields the most efficient estimator for positive shape parameters. A comparison...... of the considered methods reveals that in general, one should use the PDS model with MOM estimation for negative shape parameters, the PDS model with exponentially distributed exceedances if the shape parameter is close to zero, the AMS model with MOM estimation for moderately positive shape parameters, and the PDS...

  20. Improved incremental conductance method for maximum power point tracking using cuk converter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Saad Saoud

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The Algerian government relies on a strategy focused on the development of inexhaustible resources such as solar and uses to diversify energy sources and prepare the Algeria of tomorrow: about 40% of the production of electricity for domestic consumption will be from renewable sources by 2030, Therefore it is necessary to concentrate our forces in order to reduce the application costs and to increment their performances, Their performance is evaluated and compared through theoretical analysis and digital simulation. This paper presents simulation of improved incremental conductance method for maximum power point tracking (MPPT using DC-DC cuk converter. This improved algorithm is used to track MPPs because it performs precise control under rapidly changing Atmospheric conditions, Matlab/ Simulink were employed for simulation studies.

  1. Application of an improved maximum correlated kurtosis deconvolution method for fault diagnosis of rolling element bearings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Yonghao; Zhao, Ming; Lin, Jing; Lei, Yaguo

    2017-08-01

    The extraction of periodic impulses, which are the important indicators of rolling bearing faults, from vibration signals is considerably significance for fault diagnosis. Maximum correlated kurtosis deconvolution (MCKD) developed from minimum entropy deconvolution (MED) has been proven as an efficient tool for enhancing the periodic impulses in the diagnosis of rolling element bearings and gearboxes. However, challenges still exist when MCKD is applied to the bearings operating under harsh working conditions. The difficulties mainly come from the rigorous requires for the multi-input parameters and the complicated resampling process. To overcome these limitations, an improved MCKD (IMCKD) is presented in this paper. The new method estimates the iterative period by calculating the autocorrelation of the envelope signal rather than relies on the provided prior period. Moreover, the iterative period will gradually approach to the true fault period through updating the iterative period after every iterative step. Since IMCKD is unaffected by the impulse signals with the high kurtosis value, the new method selects the maximum kurtosis filtered signal as the final choice from all candidates in the assigned iterative counts. Compared with MCKD, IMCKD has three advantages. First, without considering prior period and the choice of the order of shift, IMCKD is more efficient and has higher robustness. Second, the resampling process is not necessary for IMCKD, which is greatly convenient for the subsequent frequency spectrum analysis and envelope spectrum analysis without resetting the sampling rate. Third, IMCKD has a significant performance advantage in diagnosing the bearing compound-fault which expands the application range. Finally, the effectiveness and superiority of IMCKD are validated by a number of simulated bearing fault signals and applying to compound faults and single fault diagnosis of a locomotive bearing.

  2. Evolutionary analysis of apolipoprotein E by Maximum Likelihood and complex network methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro de Jesus Benevides

    Full Text Available Abstract Apolipoprotein E (apo E is a human glycoprotein with 299 amino acids, and it is a major component of very low density lipoproteins (VLDL and a group of high-density lipoproteins (HDL. Phylogenetic studies are important to clarify how various apo E proteins are related in groups of organisms and whether they evolved from a common ancestor. Here, we aimed at performing a phylogenetic study on apo E carrying organisms. We employed a classical and robust method, such as Maximum Likelihood (ML, and compared the results using a more recent approach based on complex networks. Thirty-two apo E amino acid sequences were downloaded from NCBI. A clear separation could be observed among three major groups: mammals, fish and amphibians. The results obtained from ML method, as well as from the constructed networks showed two different groups: one with mammals only (C1 and another with fish (C2, and a single node with the single sequence available for an amphibian. The accordance in results from the different methods shows that the complex networks approach is effective in phylogenetic studies. Furthermore, our results revealed the conservation of apo E among animal groups.

  3. Regional analysis of annual maximum rainfall using TL-moments method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabri, Ani Bin; Daud, Zalina Mohd; Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd

    2011-06-01

    Information related to distributions of rainfall amounts are of great importance for designs of water-related structures. One of the concerns of hydrologists and engineers is the probability distribution for modeling of regional data. In this study, a novel approach to regional frequency analysis using L-moments is revisited. Subsequently, an alternative regional frequency analysis using the TL-moments method is employed. The results from both methods were then compared. The analysis was based on daily annual maximum rainfall data from 40 stations in Selangor Malaysia. TL-moments for the generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized logistic (GLO) distributions were derived and used to develop the regional frequency analysis procedure. TL-moment ratio diagram and Z-test were employed in determining the best-fit distribution. Comparison between the two approaches showed that the L-moments and TL-moments produced equivalent results. GLO and GEV distributions were identified as the most suitable distributions for representing the statistical properties of extreme rainfall in Selangor. Monte Carlo simulation was used for performance evaluation, and it showed that the method of TL-moments was more efficient for lower quantile estimation compared with the L-moments.

  4. Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

    2015-12-01

    We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

  5. Statistics: a Bayesian perspective

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berry, Donald A

    1996-01-01

    ...: it is the only introductory textbook based on Bayesian ideas, it combines concepts and methods, it presents statistics as a means of integrating data into the significant process, it develops ideas...

  6. Bayesian psychometric scaling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fox, Gerardus J.A.; van den Berg, Stéphanie Martine; Veldkamp, Bernard P.; Irwing, P.; Booth, T.; Hughes, D.

    2015-01-01

    In educational and psychological studies, psychometric methods are involved in the measurement of constructs, and in constructing and validating measurement instruments. Assessment results are typically used to measure student proficiency levels and test characteristics. Recently, Bayesian item

  7. General Method of Using Bayesian Nets for a Software Reliability Assessment in Varying SW Development Life cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, Heung Seop; Chang, Seung Cheol

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian Net (BN) has been used in many researches to predict software defects, because it allows all the evidence to be taken into account. However one of the serious difficulties in the earlier works was that the user had to build a different BN for each software development life cycle. This limits the practical use of BN in the field. One way to solve this problem is the use of general BN templates which are not restricted to a particular software life cycle. This paper describes a method for this purpose on the strength of Object- Oriented BN (OOBN) and Dynamic BN (DBN) technique

  8. Hepatic computed tomography perfusion. Comparison of maximum slope and dual-input single-compartment methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanda, Tomonori; Yoshikawa, Takeshi; Ohno, Yoshiharu; Kanata, Naoki; Koyama, Hisanobu; Nogami, Munenobu; Takenaka, Daisuke; Sugimura, Kazuro

    2010-01-01

    The aim of the study was to compare two analytical methods-maximum slope (MS) and the dualinput single-compartment model (CM)-in computed tomography (CT) measurements of hepatic perfusion and to assess the effects of extrahepatic systemic factors. A total of 109 patients underwent hepatic CT perfusion. The scans were conducted at the hepatic hilum 7-77 s after administration of contrast material. Hepatic arterial perfusion (HAP) and portal perfusion (HPP) (ml/min/100 ml) and the arterial perfusion fraction (APF, %) were calculated with the two methods, followed by correlation assessment. Partial correlation analysis was used to assess the effects on hepatic perfusion values by various factors, including age, sex, risk of cardiovascular disease, compensation for respiratory misregistration, arrival time of contrast material at the abdominal aorta, transit time from abdominal aorta to hepatic parenchyma, and liver dysfunction. The mean HAPs, HPPs, and APFs were, respectively, 31.4, 104.2, and 23.9 for MS and 27.1, 141.3, and 22.1 for CM. HAP and APF showed significant (P<0.0001) and moderate correlation (γ=0.417 and 0.548) and HPP showed poor correlation (γ=0.172) between the two methods. While MS showed weak correlations (γ=-0.39 to 0.34; P<0.001 to <0.02) between multiple extrahepatic factors and perfusion values, CM showed weak correlation only between the patients' sex and HAP (γ=0.31, P=0.001). Hepatic perfusion values estimated by the two methods are not interchangeable. CM is less susceptible to extrahepatic systemic factors. (author)

  9. Direct comparison of phase-sensitive vibrational sum frequency generation with maximum entropy method: case study of water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Beer, Alex G F; Samson, Jean-Sebastièn; Hua, Wei; Huang, Zishuai; Chen, Xiangke; Allen, Heather C; Roke, Sylvie

    2011-12-14

    We present a direct comparison of phase sensitive sum-frequency generation experiments with phase reconstruction obtained by the maximum entropy method. We show that both methods lead to the same complex spectrum. Furthermore, we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each of these methods, analyzing possible sources of experimental and analytical errors. A simulation program for maximum entropy phase reconstruction is available at: http://lbp.epfl.ch/. © 2011 American Institute of Physics

  10. A combined evidence Bayesian method for human ancestry inference applied to Afro-Colombians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rishishwar, Lavanya; Conley, Andrew B; Vidakovic, Brani; Jordan, I King

    2015-12-15

    Uniparental genetic markers, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and Y chromosomal DNA, are widely used for the inference of human ancestry. However, the resolution of ancestral origins based on mtDNA haplotypes is limited by the fact that such haplotypes are often found to be distributed across wide geographical regions. We have addressed this issue here by combining two sources of ancestry information that have typically been considered separately: historical records regarding population origins and genetic information on mtDNA haplotypes. To combine these distinct data sources, we applied a Bayesian approach that considers historical records, in the form of prior probabilities, together with data on the geographical distribution of mtDNA haplotypes, formulated as likelihoods, to yield ancestry assignments from posterior probabilities. This combined evidence Bayesian approach to ancestry assignment was evaluated for its ability to accurately assign sub-continental African ancestral origins to Afro-Colombians based on their mtDNA haplotypes. We demonstrate that the incorporation of historical prior probabilities via this analytical framework can provide for substantially increased resolution in sub-continental African ancestry assignment for members of this population. In addition, a personalized approach to ancestry assignment that involves the tuning of priors to individual mtDNA haplotypes yields even greater resolution for individual ancestry assignment. Despite the fact that Colombia has a large population of Afro-descendants, the ancestry of this community has been understudied relative to populations with primarily European and Native American ancestry. Thus, the application of the kind of combined evidence approach developed here to the study of ancestry in the Afro-Colombian population has the potential to be impactful. The formal Bayesian analytical framework we propose for combining historical and genetic information also has the potential to be widely applied

  11. A Bayesian-probability-based method for assigning protein backbone dihedral angles based on chemical shifts and local sequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Jun; Liu Haiyan [University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei National Laboratory for Physical Sciences at the Microscale, and Key Laboratory of Structural Biology, School of Life Sciences (China)], E-mail: hyliu@ustc.edu.cn

    2007-01-15

    Chemical shifts contain substantial information about protein local conformations. We present a method to assign individual protein backbone dihedral angles into specific regions on the Ramachandran map based on the amino acid sequences and the chemical shifts of backbone atoms of tripeptide segments. The method uses a scoring function derived from the Bayesian probability for the central residue of a query tripeptide segment to have a particular conformation. The Ramachandran map is partitioned into representative regions at two levels of resolution. The lower resolution partitioning is equivalent to the conventional definitions of different secondary structure regions on the map. At the higher resolution level, the {alpha} and {beta} regions are further divided into subregions. Predictions are attempted at both levels of resolution. We compared our method with TALOS using the original TALOS database, and obtained comparable results. Although TALOS may produce the best results with currently available databases which are much enlarged, the Bayesian-probability-based approach can provide a quantitative measure for the reliability of predictions.

  12. Bayesian computation with R

    CERN Document Server

    Albert, Jim

    2009-01-01

    There has been a dramatic growth in the development and application of Bayesian inferential methods. Some of this growth is due to the availability of powerful simulation-based algorithms to summarize posterior distributions. There has been also a growing interest in the use of the system R for statistical analyses. R's open source nature, free availability, and large number of contributor packages have made R the software of choice for many statisticians in education and industry. Bayesian Computation with R introduces Bayesian modeling by the use of computation using the R language. The earl

  13. THE GENERALIZED MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD APPLIED TO HIGH PRESSURE PHASE EQUILIBRIUM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lúcio CARDOZO-FILHO

    1997-12-01

    Full Text Available The generalized maximum likelihood method was used to determine binary interaction parameters between carbon dioxide and components of orange essential oil. Vapor-liquid equilibrium was modeled with Peng-Robinson and Soave-Redlich-Kwong equations, using a methodology proposed in 1979 by Asselineau, Bogdanic and Vidal. Experimental vapor-liquid equilibrium data on binary mixtures formed with carbon dioxide and compounds usually found in orange essential oil were used to test the model. These systems were chosen to demonstrate that the maximum likelihood method produces binary interaction parameters for cubic equations of state capable of satisfactorily describing phase equilibrium, even for a binary such as ethanol/CO2. Results corroborate that the Peng-Robinson, as well as the Soave-Redlich-Kwong, equation can be used to describe phase equilibrium for the following systems: components of essential oil of orange/CO2.Foi empregado o método da máxima verossimilhança generalizado para determinação de parâmetros de interação binária entre os componentes do óleo essencial de laranja e dióxido de carbono. Foram usados dados experimentais de equilíbrio líquido-vapor de misturas binárias de dióxido de carbono e componentes do óleo essencial de laranja. O equilíbrio líquido-vapor foi modelado com as equações de Peng-Robinson e de Soave-Redlich-Kwong usando a metodologia proposta em 1979 por Asselineau, Bogdanic e Vidal. A escolha destes sistemas teve como objetivo demonstrar que o método da máxima verosimilhança produz parâmetros de interação binária, para equações cúbicas de estado capazes de descrever satisfatoriamente até mesmo o equilíbrio para o binário etanol/CO2. Os resultados comprovam que tanto a equação de Peng-Robinson quanto a de Soave-Redlich-Kwong podem ser empregadas para descrever o equilíbrio de fases para o sistemas: componentes do óleo essencial de laranja/CO2.

  14. Neutron spectra unfolding with maximum entropy and maximum likelihood

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoh, Shikoh; Tsunoda, Toshiharu

    1989-01-01

    A new unfolding theory has been established on the basis of the maximum entropy principle and the maximum likelihood method. This theory correctly embodies the Poisson statistics of neutron detection, and always brings a positive solution over the whole energy range. Moreover, the theory unifies both problems of overdetermined and of underdetermined. For the latter, the ambiguity in assigning a prior probability, i.e. the initial guess in the Bayesian sense, has become extinct by virtue of the principle. An approximate expression of the covariance matrix for the resultant spectra is also presented. An efficient algorithm to solve the nonlinear system, which appears in the present study, has been established. Results of computer simulation showed the effectiveness of the present theory. (author)

  15. Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia

    2015-01-01

    Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on

  16. Bayesian methods for the design and interpretation of clinical trials in very rare diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hampson, Lisa V; Whitehead, John; Eleftheriou, Despina; Brogan, Paul

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers the design and interpretation of clinical trials comparing treatments for conditions so rare that worldwide recruitment efforts are likely to yield total sample sizes of 50 or fewer, even when patients are recruited over several years. For such studies, the sample size needed to meet a conventional frequentist power requirement is clearly infeasible. Rather, the expectation of any such trial has to be limited to the generation of an improved understanding of treatment options. We propose a Bayesian approach for the conduct of rare-disease trials comparing an experimental treatment with a control where patient responses are classified as a success or failure. A systematic elicitation from clinicians of their beliefs concerning treatment efficacy is used to establish Bayesian priors for unknown model parameters. The process of determining the prior is described, including the possibility of formally considering results from related trials. As sample sizes are small, it is possible to compute all possible posterior distributions of the two success rates. A number of allocation ratios between the two treatment groups can be considered with a view to maximising the prior probability that the trial concludes recommending the new treatment when in fact it is non-inferior to control. Consideration of the extent to which opinion can be changed, even by data from the best feasible design, can help to determine whether such a trial is worthwhile. © 2014 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:24957522

  17. The maximum willingness to pay for smoking cessation method among adult smokers in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heredia-Pi, Ileana B; Servan-Mori, Edson; Reynales-Shigematsu, Luz Myriam; Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio

    2012-01-01

    To estimate the maximum willingness to pay (WTP) for an effective smoking cessation treatment among smokers in Mexico and to identify the environmental, demographic, and socioeconomic factors associated with the WTP. A cross-sectional study was conducted. The sample contained 777 smokers (willingness to quit using a WTP of >0) who had responded to the 2009 Global Adult Tobacco Survey conducted in Mexico. Statistical associations and descriptive analyses were conducted to describe smokers and their WTP by using tobacco-related environmental, socioeconomic, and demographic variables. Overall, 74.4% of the smokers were men and 51.4% were daily smokers. On average, the smokers had been consuming tobacco for more than 15 years, 58.6% had made cessation attempts in the past, and around 10.0% knew about the existence of centers to aid in smoking cessation. The average WTP for an effective cessation method was US $191. Among men, the WTP was US $152 lower than among women. In all the estimated models, the higher an individual's education and socioeconomic level, the higher his or her WTP. This study suggests that Mexican smokers interested in quitting smoking attribute a high monetary value to an effective cessation method. Male smokers demonstrated less altruistic behavior than did female smokers. Mexico requires the implementation of more policies designed to support smoking cessation and to limit tobacco addiction. Expanding the availability of cessation programs and access to pharmacological treatments may contribute to reaching universal coverage by integrating new pharmacological alternatives into the health sector's medicine formulary. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. On Maximum Entropy and Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luigi Gresele

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Maximum entropy is a powerful concept that entails a sharp separation between relevant and irrelevant variables. It is typically invoked in inference, once an assumption is made on what the relevant variables are, in order to estimate a model from data, that affords predictions on all other (dependent variables. Conversely, maximum entropy can be invoked to retrieve the relevant variables (sufficient statistics directly from the data, once a model is identified by Bayesian model selection. We explore this approach in the case of spin models with interactions of arbitrary order, and we discuss how relevant interactions can be inferred. In this perspective, the dimensionality of the inference problem is not set by the number of parameters in the model, but by the frequency distribution of the data. We illustrate the method showing its ability to recover the correct model in a few prototype cases and discuss its application on a real dataset.

  19. Novel methods for estimating lithium-ion battery state of energy and maximum available energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, Linfeng; Zhu, Jianguo; Wang, Guoxiu; He, Tingting; Wei, Yiying

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Study on temperature, current, aging dependencies of maximum available energy. • Study on the various factors dependencies of relationships between SOE and SOC. • A quantitative relationship between SOE and SOC is proposed for SOE estimation. • Estimate maximum available energy by means of moving-window energy-integral. • The robustness and feasibility of the proposed approaches are systematic evaluated. - Abstract: The battery state of energy (SOE) allows a direct determination of the ratio between the remaining and maximum available energy of a battery, which is critical for energy optimization and management in energy storage systems. In this paper, the ambient temperature, battery discharge/charge current rate and cell aging level dependencies of battery maximum available energy and SOE are comprehensively analyzed. An explicit quantitative relationship between SOE and state of charge (SOC) for LiMn_2O_4 battery cells is proposed for SOE estimation, and a moving-window energy-integral technique is incorporated to estimate battery maximum available energy. Experimental results show that the proposed approaches can estimate battery maximum available energy and SOE with high precision. The robustness of the proposed approaches against various operation conditions and cell aging levels is systematically evaluated.

  20. A Bayesian method for inferring transmission chains in a partially observed epidemic.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marzouk, Youssef M.; Ray, Jaideep

    2008-10-01

    We present a Bayesian approach for estimating transmission chains and rates in the Abakaliki smallpox epidemic of 1967. The epidemic affected 30 individuals in a community of 74; only the dates of appearance of symptoms were recorded. Our model assumes stochastic transmission of the infections over a social network. Distinct binomial random graphs model intra- and inter-compound social connections, while disease transmission over each link is treated as a Poisson process. Link probabilities and rate parameters are objects of inference. Dates of infection and recovery comprise the remaining unknowns. Distributions for smallpox incubation and recovery periods are obtained from historical data. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo, we explore the joint posterior distribution of the scalar parameters and provide an expected connectivity pattern for the social graph and infection pathway.

  1. Bayesian methods for the physical sciences learning from examples in astronomy and physics

    CERN Document Server

    Andreon, Stefano

    2015-01-01

    Statistical literacy is critical for the modern researcher in Physics and Astronomy. This book empowers researchers in these disciplines by providing the tools they will need to analyze their own data. Chapters in this book provide a statistical base from which to approach new problems, including numerical advice and a profusion of examples. The examples are engaging analyses of real-world problems taken from modern astronomical research. The examples are intended to be starting points for readers as they learn to approach their own data and research questions. Acknowledging that scientific progress now hinges on the availability of data and the possibility to improve previous analyses, data and code are distributed throughout the book. The JAGS symbolic language used throughout the book makes it easy to perform Bayesian analysis and is particularly valuable as readers may use it in a myriad of scenarios through slight modifications.

  2. Bayesian methods for the combination of core sampling data with historical models for tank characterization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    York, J.C.; Remund, K.M.; Chen, G.; Simpson, B.C.; Brown, T.M.

    1995-07-01

    A wide variety of information is available on the contents of the nuclear waste tanks at the Hanford site. This report describes an attempt to combine several sources of information using a Bayesian statistical approach. This methodology allows the combination of multiple disparate information sources. After each source of information is summarized in terms of a probability distribution function (pdf), Bayes' theorem is applied to combine them. This approach has been applied to characterizing tanks B-110, B-111, and B-201. These tanks were chosen for their simple waste matrices: B-110 and B-111 contain mostly 2C waste, and B-201 contains mostly 224 waste. Additionally,, the results of this analysis axe used to make predictions for tank T-111 (which contains both 2C and 224 waste). These predictions are compared to the estimates based on core samples from tank T-111

  3. A Bayesian method to mine spatial data sets to evaluate the vulnerability of human beings to catastrophic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lianfa; Wang, Jinfeng; Leung, Hareton; Zhao, Sisi

    2012-06-01

    Vulnerability of human beings exposed to a catastrophic disaster is affected by multiple factors that include hazard intensity, environment, and individual characteristics. The traditional approach to vulnerability assessment, based on the aggregate-area method and unsupervised learning, cannot incorporate spatial information; thus, vulnerability can be only roughly assessed. In this article, we propose Bayesian network (BN) and spatial analysis techniques to mine spatial data sets to evaluate the vulnerability of human beings. In our approach, spatial analysis is leveraged to preprocess the data; for example, kernel density analysis (KDA) and accumulative road cost surface modeling (ARCSM) are employed to quantify the influence of geofeatures on vulnerability and relate such influence to spatial distance. The knowledge- and data-based BN provides a consistent platform to integrate a variety of factors, including those extracted by KDA and ARCSM to model vulnerability uncertainty. We also consider the model's uncertainty and use the Bayesian model average and Occam's Window to average the multiple models obtained by our approach to robust prediction of the risk and vulnerability. We compare our approach with other probabilistic models in the case study of seismic risk and conclude that our approach is a good means to mining spatial data sets for evaluating vulnerability. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Peak Bagging of red giant stars observed by Kepler: first results with a new method based on Bayesian nested sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corsaro, Enrico; De Ridder, Joris

    2015-09-01

    The peak bagging analysis, namely the fitting and identification of single oscillation modes in stars' power spectra, coupled to the very high-quality light curves of red giant stars observed by Kepler, can play a crucial role for studying stellar oscillations of different flavor with an unprecedented level of detail. A thorough study of stellar oscillations would thus allow for deeper testing of stellar structure models and new insights in stellar evolution theory. However, peak bagging inferences are in general very challenging problems due to the large number of observed oscillation modes, hence of free parameters that can be involved in the fitting models. Efficiency and robustness in performing the analysis is what may be needed to proceed further. For this purpose, we developed a new code implementing the Nested Sampling Monte Carlo (NSMC) algorithm, a powerful statistical method well suited for Bayesian analyses of complex problems. In this talk we show the peak bagging of a sample of high signal-to-noise red giant stars by exploiting recent Kepler datasets and a new criterion for the detection of an oscillation mode based on the computation of the Bayesian evidence. Preliminary results for frequencies and lifetimes for single oscillation modes, together with acoustic glitches, are therefore presented.

  5. Bayesian methods to restore and re build images: application to gamma-graphy and to photofission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stawinski, G.

    1998-01-01

    Bayesian algorithms are developed to solve inverse problems in gamma imaging and photofission tomography. The first part of this work is devoted to the modeling of our measurement systems. Two models have been found for both applications: the first one is a simple conventional model and the second one is a cascaded point process model. EM and MCMC Bayesian algorithms for image restoration and image reconstruction have been developed for these models and compared. The cascaded point process model does not improve significantly the results previously obtained by the classical model. To original approaches have been proposed, which increase the results previously obtained. The first approach uses an inhomogeneous Markov Random Field as a prior law, and makes the regularization parameter spatially vary. However, the problem of the estimation of hyper-parameters has not been solved. In the case of the deconvolution of point sources, a second approach has been proposed, which introduces a high level prior model. The picture is modeled as a list of objects, whose parameters and number are unknown. The results obtained with this method are more accurate than those obtained with the conventional Markov Random Field prior model and require less computational costs. (author)

  6. Peak Bagging of red giant stars observed by Kepler: first results with a new method based on Bayesian nested sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corsaro Enrico

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The peak bagging analysis, namely the fitting and identification of single oscillation modes in stars’ power spectra, coupled to the very high-quality light curves of red giant stars observed by Kepler, can play a crucial role for studying stellar oscillations of different flavor with an unprecedented level of detail. A thorough study of stellar oscillations would thus allow for deeper testing of stellar structure models and new insights in stellar evolution theory. However, peak bagging inferences are in general very challenging problems due to the large number of observed oscillation modes, hence of free parameters that can be involved in the fitting models. Efficiency and robustness in performing the analysis is what may be needed to proceed further. For this purpose, we developed a new code implementing the Nested Sampling Monte Carlo (NSMC algorithm, a powerful statistical method well suited for Bayesian analyses of complex problems. In this talk we show the peak bagging of a sample of high signal-to-noise red giant stars by exploiting recent Kepler datasets and a new criterion for the detection of an oscillation mode based on the computation of the Bayesian evidence. Preliminary results for frequencies and lifetimes for single oscillation modes, together with acoustic glitches, are therefore presented.

  7. Nonadditive entropy maximization is inconsistent with Bayesian updating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pressé, Steve

    2014-11-01

    The maximum entropy method—used to infer probabilistic models from data—is a special case of Bayes's model inference prescription which, in turn, is grounded in basic propositional logic. By contrast to the maximum entropy method, the compatibility of nonadditive entropy maximization with Bayes's model inference prescription has never been established. Here we demonstrate that nonadditive entropy maximization is incompatible with Bayesian updating and discuss the immediate implications of this finding. We focus our attention on special cases as illustrations.

  8. A Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation in Smart Grid Operation and Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriella Ferruzzi

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available A new short-term probabilistic forecasting method is proposed to predict the probability density function of the hourly active power generated by a photovoltaic system. Firstly, the probability density function of the hourly clearness index is forecasted making use of a Bayesian auto regressive time series model; the model takes into account the dependence of the solar radiation on some meteorological variables, such as the cloud cover and humidity. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation procedure is used to evaluate the predictive probability density function of the hourly active power by applying the photovoltaic system model to the random sampling of the clearness index distribution. A numerical application demonstrates the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed forecasting method.

  9. A three-step maximum a posteriori probability method for InSAR data inversion of coseismic rupture with application to the 14 April 2010 Mw 6.9 Yushu, China, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jianbao; Shen, Zheng-Kang; Bürgmann, Roland; Wang, Min; Chen, Lichun; Xu, Xiwei

    2013-08-01

    develop a three-step maximum a posteriori probability method for coseismic rupture inversion, which aims at maximizing the a posterior probability density function (PDF) of elastic deformation solutions of earthquake rupture. The method originates from the fully Bayesian inversion and mixed linear-nonlinear Bayesian inversion methods and shares the same posterior PDF with them, while overcoming difficulties with convergence when large numbers of low-quality data are used and greatly improving the convergence rate using optimization procedures. A highly efficient global optimization algorithm, adaptive simulated annealing, is used to search for the maximum of a posterior PDF ("mode" in statistics) in the first step. The second step inversion approaches the "true" solution further using the Monte Carlo inversion technique with positivity constraints, with all parameters obtained from the first step as the initial solution. Then slip artifacts are eliminated from slip models in the third step using the same procedure of the second step, with fixed fault geometry parameters. We first design a fault model with 45° dip angle and oblique slip, and produce corresponding synthetic interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data sets to validate the reliability and efficiency of the new method. We then apply this method to InSAR data inversion for the coseismic slip distribution of the 14 April 2010 Mw 6.9 Yushu, China earthquake. Our preferred slip model is composed of three segments with most of the slip occurring within 15 km depth and the maximum slip reaches 1.38 m at the surface. The seismic moment released is estimated to be 2.32e+19 Nm, consistent with the seismic estimate of 2.50e+19 Nm.

  10. Distribution of Snow and Maximum Snow Water Equivalent Obtained by LANDSAT Data and Degree Day Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, K.; Ochiai, H.; Takeuchi, S.

    1985-01-01

    Maximum snow water equivalence and snowcover distribution are estimated using several LANDSAT data taken in snowmelting season over a four year period. The test site is Okutadami-gawa Basin located in the central position of Tohoku-Kanto-Chubu District. The year to year normalization for snowmelt volume computation on the snow line is conducted by year to year correction of degree days using the snowcover percentage within the test basin obtained from LANDSAT data. The maximum snow water equivalent map in the test basin is generated based on the normalized snowmelt volume on the snow line extracted from four LANDSAT data taken in a different year. The snowcover distribution on an arbitrary day in snowmelting of 1982 is estimated from the maximum snow water equivalent map. The estimated snowcover is compared with the snowcover area extracted from NOAA-AVHRR data taken on the same day. The applicability of the snow estimation using LANDSAT data is discussed.

  11. Application of the Method of Maximum Likelihood to Identification of Bipedal Walking Robots

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dolinský, Kamil; Čelikovský, Sergej

    (2017) ISSN 1063-6536 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA17-04682S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Control * identification * maximum likelihood (ML) * walking robots Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 3.882, year: 2016 http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7954032/

  12. Bayesian Utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    ZHOU, Lin

    1996-01-01

    In this paper I consider social choices under uncertainty. I prove that any social choice rule that satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives, translation invariance, and weak anonymity is consistent with ex post Bayesian utilitarianism

  13. Self-consistent Bayesian analysis of space-time symmetry studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, E.D.

    1996-01-01

    We introduce a Bayesian method for the analysis of epithermal neutron transmission data on space-time symmetries in which unique assignment of the prior is achieved by maximisation of the cross entropy and the imposition of a self-consistency criterion. Unlike the maximum likelihood method used in previous analyses of parity-violation data, our method is freed of an ad hoc cutoff parameter. Monte Carlo studies indicate that our self-consistent Bayesian analysis is superior to the maximum likelihood method when applied to the small data samples typical of symmetry studies. (orig.)

  14. Quantitative methods in ethnobotany and ethnopharmacology: considering the overall flora--hypothesis testing for over- and underused plant families with the Bayesian approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weckerle, Caroline S; Cabras, Stefano; Castellanos, Maria Eugenia; Leonti, Marco

    2011-09-01

    We introduce and explain the advantages of the Bayesian approach and exemplify the method with an analysis of the medicinal flora of Campania, Italy. The Bayesian approach is a new method, which allows to compare medicinal floras with the overall flora of a given area and to investigate over- and underused plant families. In contrast to previously used methods (regression analysis and binomial method) it considers the inherent uncertainty around the analyzed data. The medicinal flora with 423 species was compiled based on nine studies on local medicinal plant use in Campania. The total flora comprises 2237 species belonging to 128 families. Statistical analysis was performed with the Bayesian method and the binomial method. An approximated χ(2)-test was used to analyze the relationship between use categories and higher taxonomic groups. Among the larger plant families we find the Lamiaceae, Rosaceae, and Malvaceae, to be overused in the local medicine of Campania and the Orchidaceae, Caryophyllaceae, Poaceae, and Fabaceae to be underused compared to the overall flora. Furthermore, do specific medicinal uses tend to be correlated with taxonomic plant groups. For example, are the Monocots heavily used for urological complaints. Testing for over- and underused taxonomic groups of a flora with the Bayesian method is easy to adopt and can readily be calculated in excel spreadsheets using the excel function Inverse beta (INV.BETA). In contrast to the binomial method the presented method is also suitable for small datasets. With larger datasets the two methods tend to converge. However, results are generally more conservative with the Bayesian method pointing out fewer families as over- or underused. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Bayesian image reconstruction for improving detection performance of muon tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guobao; Schultz, Larry J; Qi, Jinyi

    2009-05-01

    Muon tomography is a novel technology that is being developed for detecting high-Z materials in vehicles or cargo containers. Maximum likelihood methods have been developed for reconstructing the scattering density image from muon measurements. However, the instability of maximum likelihood estimation often results in noisy images and low detectability of high-Z targets. In this paper, we propose using regularization to improve the image quality of muon tomography. We formulate the muon reconstruction problem in a Bayesian framework by introducing a prior distribution on scattering density images. An iterative shrinkage algorithm is derived to maximize the log posterior distribution. At each iteration, the algorithm obtains the maximum a posteriori update by shrinking an unregularized maximum likelihood update. Inverse quadratic shrinkage functions are derived for generalized Laplacian priors and inverse cubic shrinkage functions are derived for generalized Gaussian priors. Receiver operating characteristic studies using simulated data demonstrate that the Bayesian reconstruction can greatly improve the detection performance of muon tomography.

  16. Maximum entropy decomposition of quadrupole mass spectra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toussaint, U. von; Dose, V.; Golan, A.

    2004-01-01

    We present an information-theoretic method called generalized maximum entropy (GME) for decomposing mass spectra of gas mixtures from noisy measurements. In this GME approach to the noisy, underdetermined inverse problem, the joint entropies of concentration, cracking, and noise probabilities are maximized subject to the measured data. This provides a robust estimation for the unknown cracking patterns and the concentrations of the contributing molecules. The method is applied to mass spectroscopic data of hydrocarbons, and the estimates are compared with those received from a Bayesian approach. We show that the GME method is efficient and is computationally fast

  17. Bayesian Plackett-Luce Mixture Models for Partially Ranked Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollica, Cristina; Tardella, Luca

    2017-06-01

    The elicitation of an ordinal judgment on multiple alternatives is often required in many psychological and behavioral experiments to investigate preference/choice orientation of a specific population. The Plackett-Luce model is one of the most popular and frequently applied parametric distributions to analyze rankings of a finite set of items. The present work introduces a Bayesian finite mixture of Plackett-Luce models to account for unobserved sample heterogeneity of partially ranked data. We describe an efficient way to incorporate the latent group structure in the data augmentation approach and the derivation of existing maximum likelihood procedures as special instances of the proposed Bayesian method. Inference can be conducted with the combination of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm for maximum a posteriori estimation and the Gibbs sampling iterative procedure. We additionally investigate several Bayesian criteria for selecting the optimal mixture configuration and describe diagnostic tools for assessing the fitness of ranking distributions conditionally and unconditionally on the number of ranked items. The utility of the novel Bayesian parametric Plackett-Luce mixture for characterizing sample heterogeneity is illustrated with several applications to simulated and real preference ranked data. We compare our method with the frequentist approach and a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model both assuming the Plackett-Luce model as a mixture component. Our analysis on real datasets reveals the importance of an accurate diagnostic check for an appropriate in-depth understanding of the heterogenous nature of the partial ranking data.

  18. Using Bayesian network and AHP method as a marketing approach tools in defining tourists’ preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Papić-Blagojević

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Marketing approach is associated to market conditions and achieving long term profitability of a company by satisfying consumers’ needs. This approach in tourism does not have to be related only to promoting one touristic destination, but is associated to relation between travel agency and its clients too. It considers that travel agencies adjust their offers to their clients’ needs. In that sense, it is important to analyze the behavior of tourists in the earlier periods with consideration of their preferences. Using Bayesian network, it could be graphically displayed the connection between tourists who have similar taste and relationships between them. On the other hand, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP is used to rank tourist attractions, with also relying on past experience. In this paper we examine possible applications of these two models in tourism in Serbia. The example is hypothetical, but it will serve as a base for future research. Three types of tourism are chosen as a representative in Vojvodina: Cultural, Rural and Business tourism, because they are the bright spot of touristic development in this area. Applied on these forms, analytic hierarchy process has shown its strength in predicting tourists’ preferences.

  19. Development of the Bayesian method for unavailability inference. The new inferential theory and the examples of inference using BWR outage data in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Makoto

    2009-01-01

    It is important for Level 1 PSA to quantify input reliability parameters and their uncertainty. Bayesian methods for inference of system/component unavailability, however, are not well studied. At present practitioners allocate the uncertainty (i.e. error factor) of the unavailability based on engineering judgment. Systematic methods based on Bayesian statistics are needed for quantification of such uncertainty. In this study we have developed a new method for Bayesian inference of unavailability, where the posterior of system/component unavailability is described by the inverted gamma distribution. We show that the average of the posterior comes close to the point estimate of the unavailability as the number of outages goes to infinity. That indicates validity of the new method. Using plant data recorded in NUCIA, we have applied the new method to inference of system unavailability under unplanned outages due to violations of LCO at BWRs in Japan. According to the inference results, the unavailability is populated in the order of 10 -5 -10 -4 and the error factor is within 1-2. Thus, the new Bayesian method allows one to quantify magnitudes and widths (i.e. error factor) of uncertainty distributions of unavailability. (author)

  20. Spectral analysis of the IntCal98 calibration curve: a Bayesian view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palonen, V.; Tikkanen, P.

    2004-01-01

    Preliminary results from a Bayesian approach to find periodicities in the IntCal98 calibration curve are given. It has been shown in the literature that the discrete Fourier transform (Schuster periodogram) corresponds to the use of an approximate Bayesian model of one harmonic frequency and Gaussian noise. Advantages of the Bayesian approach include the possibility to use models for variable, attenuated and multiple frequencies, the capability to analyze unevenly spaced data and the possibility to assess the significance and uncertainties of spectral estimates. In this work, a new Bayesian model using random walk noise to take care of the trend in the data is developed. Both Bayesian models are described and the first results of the new model are reported and compared with results from straightforward discrete-Fourier-transform and maximum-entropy-method spectral analyses

  1. Bayesian model averaging method for evaluating associations between air pollution and respiratory mortality: a time-series study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Xin; Li, Runkui; Kan, Haidong; Bottai, Matteo; Fang, Fang; Cao, Yang

    2016-08-16

    To demonstrate an application of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) and provide a novel modelling technique to assess the association between inhalable coarse particles (PM10) and respiratory mortality in time-series studies. A time-series study using regional death registry between 2009 and 2010. 8 districts in a large metropolitan area in Northern China. 9559 permanent residents of the 8 districts who died of respiratory diseases between 2009 and 2010. Per cent increase in daily respiratory mortality rate (MR) per interquartile range (IQR) increase of PM10 concentration and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) in single-pollutant and multipollutant (including NOx, CO) models. The Bayesian model averaged GAMM (GAMM+BMA) and the optimal GAMM of PM10, multipollutants and principal components (PCs) of multipollutants showed comparable results for the effect of PM10 on daily respiratory MR, that is, one IQR increase in PM10 concentration corresponded to 1.38% vs 1.39%, 1.81% vs 1.83% and 0.87% vs 0.88% increase, respectively, in daily respiratory MR. However, GAMM+BMA gave slightly but noticeable wider CIs for the single-pollutant model (-1.09 to 4.28 vs -1.08 to 3.93) and the PCs-based model (-2.23 to 4.07 vs -2.03 vs 3.88). The CIs of the multiple-pollutant model from two methods are similar, that is, -1.12 to 4.85 versus -1.11 versus 4.83. The BMA method may represent a useful tool for modelling uncertainty in time-series studies when evaluating the effect of air pollution on fatal health outcomes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  2. On the maximum-entropy method for kinetic equation of radiation, particle and gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Wakil, S.A.; Madkour, M.A.; Degheidy, A.R.; Machali, H.M.

    1995-01-01

    The maximum-entropy approach is used to calculate some problems in radiative transfer and reactor physics such as the escape probability, the emergent and transmitted intensities for a finite slab as well as the emergent intensity for a semi-infinite medium. Also, it is employed to solve problems involving spherical geometry, such as luminosity (the total energy emitted by a sphere), neutron capture probability and the albedo problem. The technique is also employed in the kinetic theory of gases to calculate the Poiseuille flow and thermal creep of a rarefied gas between two plates. Numerical calculations are achieved and compared with the published data. The comparisons demonstrate that the maximum-entropy results are good in agreement with the exact ones. (orig.)

  3. Reconstruction of the electron momentum density distribution by the maximum entropy method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobrzynski, L.

    1996-01-01

    The application of the Maximum Entropy Algorithm to the analysis of the Compton profiles is discussed. It is shown that the reconstruction of electron momentum density may be reliably carried out. However, there are a number of technical problems which have to be overcome in order to produce trustworthy results. In particular one needs the experimental Compton profiles measured for many directions, and to have efficient computational resources. The use of various cross-checks is recommended. (orig.)

  4. Towards Improving the Efficiency of Bayesian Model Averaging Analysis for Flow in Porous Media via the Probabilistic Collocation Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Xue

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The characterization of flow in subsurface porous media is associated with high uncertainty. To better quantify the uncertainty of groundwater systems, it is necessary to consider the model uncertainty. Multi-model uncertainty analysis can be performed in the Bayesian model averaging (BMA framework. However, the BMA analysis via Monte Carlo method is time consuming because it requires many forward model evaluations. A computationally efficient BMA analysis framework is proposed by using the probabilistic collocation method to construct a response surface model, where the log hydraulic conductivity field and hydraulic head are expanded into polynomials through Karhunen–Loeve and polynomial chaos methods. A synthetic test is designed to validate the proposed response surface analysis method. The results show that the posterior model weight and the key statistics in BMA framework can be accurately estimated. The relative errors of mean and total variance in the BMA analysis results are just approximately 0.013% and 1.18%, but the proposed method can be 16 times more computationally efficient than the traditional BMA method.

  5. Bayesian analysis in plant pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mila, A L; Carriquiry, A L

    2004-09-01

    ABSTRACT Bayesian methods are currently much discussed and applied in several disciplines from molecular biology to engineering. Bayesian inference is the process of fitting a probability model to a set of data and summarizing the results via probability distributions on the parameters of the model and unobserved quantities such as predictions for new observations. In this paper, after a short introduction of Bayesian inference, we present the basic features of Bayesian methodology using examples from sequencing genomic fragments and analyzing microarray gene-expressing levels, reconstructing disease maps, and designing experiments.

  6. Bayesian and Classical Machine Learning Methods: A Comparison for Tree Species Classification with LiDAR Waveform Signatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tan Zhou

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A plethora of information contained in full-waveform (FW Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR data offers prospects for characterizing vegetation structures. This study aims to investigate the capacity of FW LiDAR data alone for tree species identification through the integration of waveform metrics with machine learning methods and Bayesian inference. Specifically, we first conducted automatic tree segmentation based on the waveform-based canopy height model (CHM using three approaches including TreeVaW, watershed algorithms and the combination of TreeVaW and watershed (TW algorithms. Subsequently, the Random forests (RF and Conditional inference forests (CF models were employed to identify important tree-level waveform metrics derived from three distinct sources, such as raw waveforms, composite waveforms, the waveform-based point cloud and the combined variables from these three sources. Further, we discriminated tree (gray pine, blue oak, interior live oak and shrub species through the RF, CF and Bayesian multinomial logistic regression (BMLR using important waveform metrics identified in this study. Results of the tree segmentation demonstrated that the TW algorithms outperformed other algorithms for delineating individual tree crowns. The CF model overcomes waveform metrics selection bias caused by the RF model which favors correlated metrics and enhances the accuracy of subsequent classification. We also found that composite waveforms are more informative than raw waveforms and waveform-based point cloud for characterizing tree species in our study area. Both classical machine learning methods (the RF and CF and the BMLR generated satisfactory average overall accuracy (74% for the RF, 77% for the CF and 81% for the BMLR and the BMLR slightly outperformed the other two methods. However, these three methods suffered from low individual classification accuracy for the blue oak which is prone to being misclassified as the interior live oak due

  7. Physical method to assess a probable maximum precipitation, using CRCM datas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beauchamp, J.

    2009-01-01

    'Full text:' For Nordic hydropower facilities, spillways are designed with a peak discharge based on extreme conditions. This peak discharge is generally derived using the concept of a probable maximum flood (PMF), which results from the combined effect of abundant downpours (probable maximum precipitation - PMP) and rapid snowmelt. On a gauged basin, the weather data record allows for the computation of the PMF. However, uncertainty in the future climate raises questions as to the accuracy of current PMP estimates for existing and future hydropower facilities. This project looks at the potential use of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) data to compute the PMF in ungauged basins and to assess potential changes to the PMF in a changing climate. Several steps will be needed to accomplish this task. This paper presents the first step that aims at applying/adapting to CRCM data the in situ moisture maximization technique developed by the World Meteorological Organization, in order to compute the PMP at the watershed scale. The CRCM provides output data on a 45km grid at a six hour time step. All of the needed atmospheric data is available at sixteen different pressure levels. The methodology consists in first identifying extreme precipitation events under current climate conditions. Then, a maximum persisting twelve hours dew point is determined at each grid point and pressure level for the storm duration. Afterwards, the maximization ratio is approximated by merging the effective temperature with dew point and relative humidity values. The variables and maximization ratio are four-dimensional (x, y, z, t) values. Consequently, two different approaches are explored: a partial ratio at each step and a global ratio for the storm duration. For every identified extreme precipitation event, a maximized hyetograph is computed from the application of this ratio, either partial or global, on CRCM precipitation rates. Ultimately, the PMP is the depth of the

  8. Physical method to assess a probable maximum precipitation, using CRCM datas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beauchamp, J. [Univ. de Quebec, Ecole de technologie superior, Quebec (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    'Full text:' For Nordic hydropower facilities, spillways are designed with a peak discharge based on extreme conditions. This peak discharge is generally derived using the concept of a probable maximum flood (PMF), which results from the combined effect of abundant downpours (probable maximum precipitation - PMP) and rapid snowmelt. On a gauged basin, the weather data record allows for the computation of the PMF. However, uncertainty in the future climate raises questions as to the accuracy of current PMP estimates for existing and future hydropower facilities. This project looks at the potential use of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) data to compute the PMF in ungauged basins and to assess potential changes to the PMF in a changing climate. Several steps will be needed to accomplish this task. This paper presents the first step that aims at applying/adapting to CRCM data the in situ moisture maximization technique developed by the World Meteorological Organization, in order to compute the PMP at the watershed scale. The CRCM provides output data on a 45km grid at a six hour time step. All of the needed atmospheric data is available at sixteen different pressure levels. The methodology consists in first identifying extreme precipitation events under current climate conditions. Then, a maximum persisting twelve hours dew point is determined at each grid point and pressure level for the storm duration. Afterwards, the maximization ratio is approximated by merging the effective temperature with dew point and relative humidity values. The variables and maximization ratio are four-dimensional (x, y, z, t) values. Consequently, two different approaches are explored: a partial ratio at each step and a global ratio for the storm duration. For every identified extreme precipitation event, a maximized hyetograph is computed from the application of this ratio, either partial or global, on CRCM precipitation rates. Ultimately, the PMP is the depth of the

  9. Methods for identifying SNP interactions: a review on variations of Logic Regression, Random Forest and Bayesian logistic regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Carla Chia-Ming; Schwender, Holger; Keith, Jonathan; Nunkesser, Robin; Mengersen, Kerrie; Macrossan, Paula

    2011-01-01

    Due to advancements in computational ability, enhanced technology and a reduction in the price of genotyping, more data are being generated for understanding genetic associations with diseases and disorders. However, with the availability of large data sets comes the inherent challenges of new methods of statistical analysis and modeling. Considering a complex phenotype may be the effect of a combination of multiple loci, various statistical methods have been developed for identifying genetic epistasis effects. Among these methods, logic regression (LR) is an intriguing approach incorporating tree-like structures. Various methods have built on the original LR to improve different aspects of the model. In this study, we review four variations of LR, namely Logic Feature Selection, Monte Carlo Logic Regression, Genetic Programming for Association Studies, and Modified Logic Regression-Gene Expression Programming, and investigate the performance of each method using simulated and real genotype data. We contrast these with another tree-like approach, namely Random Forests, and a Bayesian logistic regression with stochastic search variable selection.

  10. Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asad Ali

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an  overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.

  11. A Maximum Power Transfer Tracking Method for WPT Systems with Coupling Coefficient Identification Considering Two-Value Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Dai

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Maximum power transfer tracking (MPTT is meant to track the maximum power point during the system operation of wireless power transfer (WPT systems. Traditionally, MPTT is achieved by impedance matching at the secondary side when the load resistance is varied. However, due to a loosely coupling characteristic, the variation of coupling coefficient will certainly affect the performance of impedance matching, therefore MPTT will fail accordingly. This paper presents an identification method of coupling coefficient for MPTT in WPT systems. Especially, the two-value issue during the identification is considered. The identification approach is easy to implement because it does not require additional circuit. Furthermore, MPTT is easy to realize because only two easily measured DC parameters are needed. The detailed identification procedure corresponding to the two-value issue and the maximum power transfer tracking process are presented, and both the simulation analysis and experimental results verified the identification method and MPTT.

  12. Combined analysis of steady state and transient transport by the maximum entropy method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giannone, L.; Stroth, U; Koellermeyer, J [Association Euratom-Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany); and others

    1996-04-01

    A new maximum entropy approach has been applied to analyse three types of transient transport experiments. For sawtooth propagation experiments in the ASDEX Upgrade and ECRH power modulation and power-switching experiments in the Wendelstein 7-AS Stellarator, either the time evolution of the temperature perturbation or the phase and amplitude of the modulated temperature perturbation are used as non-linear constraints to the {chi}{sub e} profile to be fitted. Simultaneously, the constraints given by the equilibrium temperature profile for steady-state power balance are fitted. In the maximum entropy formulation, the flattest {chi}{sub e} profile consistent with the constraints is found. It was found that {chi}{sub e} determined from sawtooth propagation was greater than the power balance value by a factor of five in the ASDEX Upgrade. From power modulation experiments, employing the measurements of four modulation frequencies simultaneously, the power deposition profile as well as the {chi}{sub e} profile could be determined. A comparison of the predictions of a time-independent {chi}{sub e} model and a power-dependent {chi}{sub e} model is made. The power-switching experiments show that the {chi}{sub e} profile must change within a millisecond to a new value consistent with the power balance value at the new input power. Neither power deposition broadening due to suprathermal electrons nor temperature or gradient dependences of {chi}{sub e} can explain this observation. (author).

  13. Search for transient ultralight dark matter signatures with networks of precision measurement devices using a Bayesian statistics method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, B. M.; Blewitt, G.; Dailey, C.; Derevianko, A.

    2018-04-01

    We analyze the prospects of employing a distributed global network of precision measurement devices as a dark matter and exotic physics observatory. In particular, we consider the atomic clocks of the global positioning system (GPS), consisting of a constellation of 32 medium-Earth orbit satellites equipped with either Cs or Rb microwave clocks and a number of Earth-based receiver stations, some of which employ highly-stable H-maser atomic clocks. High-accuracy timing data is available for almost two decades. By analyzing the satellite and terrestrial atomic clock data, it is possible to search for transient signatures of exotic physics, such as "clumpy" dark matter and dark energy, effectively transforming the GPS constellation into a 50 000 km aperture sensor array. Here we characterize the noise of the GPS satellite atomic clocks, describe the search method based on Bayesian statistics, and test the method using simulated clock data. We present the projected discovery reach using our method, and demonstrate that it can surpass the existing constrains by several order of magnitude for certain models. Our method is not limited in scope to GPS or atomic clock networks, and can also be applied to other networks of precision measurement devices.

  14. Bayesian grid matching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    2003-01-01

    A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which r...

  15. On the prior probabilities for two-stage Bayesian estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohut, P.

    1992-01-01

    The method of Bayesian inference is reexamined for its applicability and for the required underlying assumptions in obtaining and using prior probability estimates. Two different approaches are suggested to determine the first-stage priors in the two-stage Bayesian analysis which avoid certain assumptions required for other techniques. In the first scheme, the prior is obtained through a true frequency based distribution generated at selected intervals utilizing actual sampling of the failure rate distributions. The population variability distribution is generated as the weighed average of the frequency distributions. The second method is based on a non-parametric Bayesian approach using the Maximum Entropy Principle. Specific features such as integral properties or selected parameters of prior distributions may be obtained with minimal assumptions. It is indicated how various quantiles may also be generated with a least square technique

  16. Electron density profile reconstruction by maximum entropy method with multichannel HCN laser interferometer system on SPAC VII

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kubo, S.; Narihara, K.; Tomita, Y.; Hasegawa, M.; Tsuzuki, T.; Mohri, A.

    1988-01-01

    A multichannel HCN laser interferometer system has been developed to investigate the plasma electron confinement properties in SPAC VII device. Maximum entropy method is applied to reconstruct the electron density profile from measured line integrated data. Particle diffusion coefficient in the peripheral region of the REB ring core spherator was obtained from the evolution of the density profile. (author)

  17. An electromagnetism-like method for the maximum set splitting problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kratica Jozef

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an electromagnetism-like approach (EM for solving the maximum set splitting problem (MSSP is applied. Hybrid approach consisting of the movement based on the attraction-repulsion mechanisms combined with the proposed scaling technique directs EM to promising search regions. Fast implementation of the local search procedure additionally improves the efficiency of overall EM system. The performance of the proposed EM approach is evaluated on two classes of instances from the literature: minimum hitting set and Steiner triple systems. The results show, except in one case, that EM reaches optimal solutions up to 500 elements and 50000 subsets on minimum hitting set instances. It also reaches all optimal/best-known solutions for Steiner triple systems.

  18. Method and apparatus for storing nuclear fuel assemblies in maximum density racks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wachter, W.J.; Robbins, T.R.

    1979-01-01

    A maximum density storage rack is provided for long term or semipermanent storage of spent nuclear fuel assemblies. The rack consists of storage cells arranged in a regular array, such as a checkerboard, and intended to be immersed in water. Initially, cap members are placed on alternate cells in such a manner that at least 50% of the cells are left open, some of the caps being removable. Spent fuel assemblies are then placed in the open cells until all of them are filled. The level of reactivity of each of the stored fuel assemblies is then determined by accurate calculation or by measurement, and the removable caps are removed and rearranged so that other cells are opened, permitting the storage of additional fuel assemblies in a pattern based on the actual reactivity such that criticality is prevented

  19. Supplementary Material for: DRABAL: novel method to mine large high-throughput screening assays using Bayesian active learning

    KAUST Repository

    Soufan, Othman

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background Mining high-throughput screening (HTS) assays is key for enhancing decisions in the area of drug repositioning and drug discovery. However, many challenges are encountered in the process of developing suitable and accurate methods for extracting useful information from these assays. Virtual screening and a wide variety of databases, methods and solutions proposed to-date, did not completely overcome these challenges. This study is based on a multi-label classification (MLC) technique for modeling correlations between several HTS assays, meaning that a single prediction represents a subset of assigned correlated labels instead of one label. Thus, the devised method provides an increased probability for more accurate predictions of compounds that were not tested in particular assays. Results Here we present DRABAL, a novel MLC solution that incorporates structure learning of a Bayesian network as a step to model dependency between the HTS assays. In this study, DRABAL was used to process more than 1.4 million interactions of over 400,000 compounds and analyze the existing relationships between five large HTS assays from the PubChem BioAssay Database. Compared to different MLC methods, DRABAL significantly improves the F1Score by about 22%, on average. We further illustrated usefulness and utility of DRABAL through screening FDA approved drugs and reported ones that have a high probability to interact with several targets, thus enabling drug-multi-target repositioning. Specifically DRABAL suggests the Thiabendazole drug as a common activator of the NCP1 and Rab-9A proteins, both of which are designed to identify treatment modalities for the Niemannâ Pick type C disease. Conclusion We developed a novel MLC solution based on a Bayesian active learning framework to overcome the challenge of lacking fully labeled training data and exploit actual dependencies between the HTS assays. The solution is motivated by the need to model dependencies between

  20. The NIFTY way of Bayesian signal inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selig, Marco

    2014-01-01

    We introduce NIFTY, 'Numerical Information Field Theory', a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTY can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTY as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D 3 PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy

  1. The NIFTy way of Bayesian signal inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selig, Marco

    2014-12-01

    We introduce NIFTy, "Numerical Information Field Theory", a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTy can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTy as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D3PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy.

  2. Use of SAMC for Bayesian analysis of statistical models with intractable normalizing constants

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Ick Hoon

    2014-03-01

    Statistical inference for the models with intractable normalizing constants has attracted much attention. During the past two decades, various approximation- or simulation-based methods have been proposed for the problem, such as the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method and the auxiliary variable Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm specifically addresses this problem: It works by sampling from a sequence of approximate distributions with their average converging to the target posterior distribution, where the approximate distributions can be achieved using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm. A strong law of large numbers is established for the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo estimator under mild conditions. Compared to the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method, the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm is more robust to the initial guess of model parameters. Compared to the auxiliary variable MCMC methods, the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm avoids the requirement for perfect samples, and thus can be applied to many models for which perfect sampling is not available or very expensive. The Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm also provides a general framework for approximate Bayesian analysis. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Separation of Stochastic and Deterministic Information from Seismological Time Series with Nonlinear Dynamics and Maximum Entropy Methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez, Rafael M.; Useche, Gina M.; Buitrago, Elias

    2007-01-01

    We present a procedure developed to detect stochastic and deterministic information contained in empirical time series, useful to characterize and make models of different aspects of complex phenomena represented by such data. This procedure is applied to a seismological time series to obtain new information to study and understand geological phenomena. We use concepts and methods from nonlinear dynamics and maximum entropy. The mentioned method allows an optimal analysis of the available information

  4. Fatigue life prediction method for contact wire using maximum local stress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Yong Seok; Haochuang, Li; Seok, Chang Sung; Koo, Jae Mean [Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Ki Won; Kwon, Sam Young; Cho, Yong Hyeon [Korea Railroad Research Institute, Uiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-01-15

    Railway contact wires supplying electricity to trains are exposed to repeated mechanical strain and stress caused by their own weight and discontinuous contact with a pantograph during train operation. Since the speed of railway transportation has increased continuously, railway industries have recently reported a number of contact wire failures caused by mechanical fatigue fractures instead of normal wear, which has been a more common failure mechanism. To secure the safety and durability of contact wires in environments with increased train speeds, a bending fatigue test on contact wire has been performed. The test equipment is too complicated to evaluate the fatigue characteristics of contact wire. Thus, the axial tension fatigue test was performed for a standard specimen, and the bending fatigue life for the contact wire structure was then predicted using the maximum local stress occurring at the top of the contact wire. Lastly, the tested bending fatigue life of the structure was compared with the fatigue life predicted by the axial tension fatigue test for verification.

  5. A practical method for estimating maximum shear modulus of cemented sands using unconfined compressive strength

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choo, Hyunwook; Nam, Hongyeop; Lee, Woojin

    2017-12-01

    The composition of naturally cemented deposits is very complicated; thus, estimating the maximum shear modulus (Gmax, or shear modulus at very small strains) of cemented sands using the previous empirical formulas is very difficult. The purpose of this experimental investigation is to evaluate the effects of particle size and cement type on the Gmax and unconfined compressive strength (qucs) of cemented sands, with the ultimate goal of estimating Gmax of cemented sands using qucs. Two sands were artificially cemented using Portland cement or gypsum under varying cement contents (2%-9%) and relative densities (30%-80%). Unconfined compression tests and bender element tests were performed, and the results from previous studies of two cemented sands were incorporated in this study. The results of this study demonstrate that the effect of particle size on the qucs and Gmax of four cemented sands is insignificant, and the variation of qucs and Gmax can be captured by the ratio between volume of void and volume of cement. qucs and Gmax of sand cemented with Portland cement are greater than those of sand cemented with gypsum. However, the relationship between qucs and Gmax of the cemented sand is not affected by the void ratio, cement type and cement content, revealing that Gmax of the complex naturally cemented soils with unknown in-situ void ratio, cement type and cement content can be estimated using qucs.

  6. Fatigue life prediction method for contact wire using maximum local stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yong Seok; Haochuang, Li; Seok, Chang Sung; Koo, Jae Mean; Lee, Ki Won; Kwon, Sam Young; Cho, Yong Hyeon

    2015-01-01

    Railway contact wires supplying electricity to trains are exposed to repeated mechanical strain and stress caused by their own weight and discontinuous contact with a pantograph during train operation. Since the speed of railway transportation has increased continuously, railway industries have recently reported a number of contact wire failures caused by mechanical fatigue fractures instead of normal wear, which has been a more common failure mechanism. To secure the safety and durability of contact wires in environments with increased train speeds, a bending fatigue test on contact wire has been performed. The test equipment is too complicated to evaluate the fatigue characteristics of contact wire. Thus, the axial tension fatigue test was performed for a standard specimen, and the bending fatigue life for the contact wire structure was then predicted using the maximum local stress occurring at the top of the contact wire. Lastly, the tested bending fatigue life of the structure was compared with the fatigue life predicted by the axial tension fatigue test for verification.

  7. Assessing the performance of winter footwear using a new maximum achievable incline method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Jennifer; Li, Yue; Dutta, Tilak; Fernie, Geoff

    2015-09-01

    More informative tests of winter footwear performance are required in order to identify footwear that will prevent injurious slips and falls on icy conditions. In this study, eight participants tested four styles of winter boots on smooth wet ice. The surface was progressively tilted to create increasing longitudinal and cross-slopes until participants could no longer continue standing or walking. Maximum achievable incline angles provided consistent measures of footwear slip resistance and demonstrated better resolution than mechanical tests. One footwear outsole material and tread combination outperformed the others on wet ice allowing participants to successfully walk on steep longitudinal slopes of 17.5° ± 1.9° (mean ± SD). By further exploiting the methodology to include additional surfaces and contaminants, such tests could be used to optimize tread designs and materials that are ideal for reducing the risk of slips and falls. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  8. Performances improvement of maximum power point tracking perturb and observe method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egiziano, L.; Femia, N.; Granozio, D.; Petrone, G.; Spagnuolo, G. [Salermo Univ., Salermo (Italy); Vitelli, M. [Seconda Univ. di Napoli, Napoli (Italy)

    2006-07-01

    Perturb and observe best operation conditions were investigated in order to identify edge efficiency performance capabilities of a maximum power point (MPP) tracking technique for photovoltaic (PV) applications. The strategy was developed to ensure a 3-points behavior across the MPP under a fixed irradiation level with a central point blocked on the MPP and 2 operating points operating at voltage values that guaranteed the same power levels. The system was also devised to quickly detect the MPP movement in the presence of varying atmospheric conditions by increasing the perturbation so that the MPP was guaranteed within a few sampling periods. A perturbation equation was selected where amplitude was represented as a function of the actual power drawn from the PV field together with the adoption of a parabolic interpolation of the sequence of the final 3 acquired voltage power couples corresponding to as many operating points. The technique was developed to ensure that the power difference between 2 consecutive operating points was higher than the power quantization error. Simulations were conducted to demonstrate that the proposed technique arranged operating points symmetrically around the MPP. The average power of the 3-points set was achieved by means of the parabolic prediction. Experiments conducted to validate the simulation showed a reduced power oscillation below the MPP and a real power gain. 2 refs., 8 figs.

  9. A New High Frequency Injection Method Based on Duty Cycle Shifting without Maximum Voltage Magnitude Loss

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Dong; Lu, Kaiyuan; Rasmussen, Peter Omand

    2015-01-01

    The conventional high frequency signal injection method is to superimpose a high frequency voltage signal to the commanded stator voltage before space vector modulation. Therefore, the magnitude of the voltage used for machine torque production is limited. In this paper, a new high frequency...... amplitude. This may be utilized to develop new position estimation algorithm without involving the inductance in the medium to high speed range. As an application example, a developed inductance independent position estimation algorithm using the proposed high frequency injection method is applied to drive...... injection method, in which high frequency signal is generated by shifting the duty cycle between two neighboring switching periods, is proposed. This method allows injecting a high frequency signal at half of the switching frequency without the necessity to sacrifice the machine fundamental voltage...

  10. Estimation of Mental Disorders Prevalence in High School Students Using Small Area Methods: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Reza Soltanian

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Adolescence is one of the most important periods in the course of human evolution and the prevalence of mental disorders among adolescence in different regions of Iran, especially in southern Iran. Objectives This study was conducted to determine the prevalence of mental disorders among high school students in Bushehr province, south of Iran. Methods In this cross-sectional study, 286 high school students were recruited by a multi-stage random sampling in Bushehr province in 2015. A general health questionnaire (GHQ-28 was used to assess mental disorders. The small area method, under the hierarchical Bayesian approach, was used to determine the prevalence of mental disorders and data analysis. Results From 286 questionnaires only 182 were completely filed and evaluated (the response rate was 70.5%. Of the students, 58.79% and 41.21% were male and female, respectively. Of all students, the prevalence of mental disorders in Bushehr, Dayyer, Deylam, Kangan, Dashtestan, Tangestan, Genaveh, and Dashty were 0.48, 0.42, 0.45, 0.52, 0.41, 0.47, 0.42, and 0.43, respectively. Conclusions Based on this study, the prevalence of mental disorders among adolescents was increasing in Bushehr Province counties. The lack of a national policy in this way is a serious obstacle to mental health and wellbeing access.

  11. Reconstruction of electrical impedance tomography (EIT) images based on the expectation maximum (EM) method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qi; Wang, Huaxiang; Cui, Ziqiang; Yang, Chengyi

    2012-11-01

    Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) calculates the internal conductivity distribution within a body using electrical contact measurements. The image reconstruction for EIT is an inverse problem, which is both non-linear and ill-posed. The traditional regularization method cannot avoid introducing negative values in the solution. The negativity of the solution produces artifacts in reconstructed images in presence of noise. A statistical method, namely, the expectation maximization (EM) method, is used to solve the inverse problem for EIT in this paper. The mathematical model of EIT is transformed to the non-negatively constrained likelihood minimization problem. The solution is obtained by the gradient projection-reduced Newton (GPRN) iteration method. This paper also discusses the strategies of choosing parameters. Simulation and experimental results indicate that the reconstructed images with higher quality can be obtained by the EM method, compared with the traditional Tikhonov and conjugate gradient (CG) methods, even with non-negative processing. Copyright © 2012 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Maximum Entropy Methods as the Bridge Between Microscopic and Macroscopic Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Jamie M.

    2016-09-01

    This paper is concerned with an investigation into a function of macroscopic variables known as the singular potential, building on previous work by Ball and Majumdar. The singular potential is a function of the admissible statistical averages of probability distributions on a state space, defined so that it corresponds to the maximum possible entropy given known observed statistical averages, although non-classical entropy-like objective functions will also be considered. First the set of admissible moments must be established, and under the conditions presented in this work the set is open, bounded and convex allowing a description in terms of supporting hyperplanes, which provides estimates on the development of singularities for related probability distributions. Under appropriate conditions it is shown that the singular potential is strictly convex, as differentiable as the microscopic entropy, and blows up uniformly as the macroscopic variable tends to the boundary of the set of admissible moments. Applications of the singular potential are then discussed, and particular consideration will be given to certain free-energy functionals typical in mean-field theory, demonstrating an equivalence between certain microscopic and macroscopic free-energy functionals. This allows statements about L^1-local minimisers of Onsager's free energy to be obtained which cannot be given by two-sided variations, and overcomes the need to ensure local minimisers are bounded away from zero and +∞ before taking L^∞ variations. The analysis also permits the definition of a dual order parameter for which Onsager's free energy allows an explicit representation. Also, the difficulties in approximating the singular potential by everywhere defined functions, in particular by polynomial functions, are addressed, with examples demonstrating the failure of the Taylor approximation to preserve relevant shape properties of the singular potential.

  13. Bayesian logistic regression approaches to predict incorrect DRG assignment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suleiman, Mani; Demirhan, Haydar; Boyd, Leanne; Girosi, Federico; Aksakalli, Vural

    2018-05-07

    Episodes of care involving similar diagnoses and treatments and requiring similar levels of resource utilisation are grouped to the same Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG). In jurisdictions which implement DRG based payment systems, DRGs are a major determinant of funding for inpatient care. Hence, service providers often dedicate auditing staff to the task of checking that episodes have been coded to the correct DRG. The use of statistical models to estimate an episode's probability of DRG error can significantly improve the efficiency of clinical coding audits. This study implements Bayesian logistic regression models with weakly informative prior distributions to estimate the likelihood that episodes require a DRG revision, comparing these models with each other and to classical maximum likelihood estimates. All Bayesian approaches had more stable model parameters than maximum likelihood. The best performing Bayesian model improved overall classification per- formance by 6% compared to maximum likelihood, with a 34% gain compared to random classification, respectively. We found that the original DRG, coder and the day of coding all have a significant effect on the likelihood of DRG error. Use of Bayesian approaches has improved model parameter stability and classification accuracy. This method has already lead to improved audit efficiency in an operational capacity.

  14. Maximum entropy deconvolution of low count nuclear medicine images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGrath, D.M.

    1998-12-01

    Maximum entropy is applied to the problem of deconvolving nuclear medicine images, with special consideration for very low count data. The physics of the formation of scintigraphic images is described, illustrating the phenomena which degrade planar estimates of the tracer distribution. Various techniques which are used to restore these images are reviewed, outlining the relative merits of each. The development and theoretical justification of maximum entropy as an image processing technique is discussed. Maximum entropy is then applied to the problem of planar deconvolution, highlighting the question of the choice of error parameters for low count data. A novel iterative version of the algorithm is suggested which allows the errors to be estimated from the predicted Poisson mean values. This method is shown to produce the exact results predicted by combining Poisson statistics and a Bayesian interpretation of the maximum entropy approach. A facility for total count preservation has also been incorporated, leading to improved quantification. In order to evaluate this iterative maximum entropy technique, two comparable methods, Wiener filtering and a novel Bayesian maximum likelihood expectation maximisation technique, were implemented. The comparison of results obtained indicated that this maximum entropy approach may produce equivalent or better measures of image quality than the compared methods, depending upon the accuracy of the system model used. The novel Bayesian maximum likelihood expectation maximisation technique was shown to be preferable over many existing maximum a posteriori methods due to its simplicity of implementation. A single parameter is required to define the Bayesian prior, which suppresses noise in the solution and may reduce the processing time substantially. Finally, maximum entropy deconvolution was applied as a pre-processing step in single photon emission computed tomography reconstruction of low count data. Higher contrast results were

  15. Maximum Credible Event Analysis Methods-Tools and Applications in Biosecurity Programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, V.

    2007-01-01

    Maximum Credible Event (MCE) analyses are analogous to worst-case scenarios involving a likely mishap scenario in biotechnology bioprocessing operations, biological products testing laboratories, and biological specimen repository facilities, leading to release of particulate/aerosolized etiologic agents into the environment. The purpose of MCE analyses is to estimate the effectiveness of existing safeguards such as the engineering controls, administrative procedures and the attributes of facility design that, in combination, prevent the probability of release of potentially pathogenic or toxic material from the test facility to external environment. As part of our support to the United States Chemical Biological Defense Program, we have developed a unique set og realistic MCE worst-case scenarios for all laboratory and industrial aspects of a biological product development process. Although MCE analysis is a part of an overall facility biosafety assessment, our approach considered biosecurity related issues such as facility vulnerability, employment procedures and workers background investigations, exercise and drills involving local law enforcement and emergency response community, records and audits process, and facility biosafety and biosecurity oversight and governance issues. our standard operating procedure for tracking biological material transfer agreements and operating procedures for materials transfer, together with an integrated checklist of biosafety/biosecurity facility inspection and evaluation was to ensure compliance with all biosafety and biosecurity guidelines.The results of MCE analysis, described in terms of potential hazard of exposure for workers and immediate environment to etiologic agents from the manufacturing process, is a quasi-quantitative estimate of the nature and extent of adverse impact on the health and immediate environment at the vicinity. Etiologic agent exposure concentrations are estimated based on a Gaussian air depression

  16. An iterative method applied to optimize the design of PIN photodiodes for enhanced radiation tolerance and maximum light response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cedola, A.P.; Cappelletti, M.A.; Casas, G.; Peltzer y Blanca, E.L.

    2011-01-01

    An iterative method based on numerical simulations was developed to enhance the proton radiation tolerance and the responsivity of Si PIN photodiodes. The method allows to calculate the optimal values of the intrinsic layer thickness and the incident light wavelength, in function of the light intensity and the maximum proton fluence to be supported by the device. These results minimize the effects of radiation on the total reverse current of the photodiode and maximize its response to light. The implementation of the method is useful in the design of devices whose operation point should not suffer variations due to radiation.

  17. APPLICATION OF A GENERALIZED MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD IN THE REDUCTION OF MULTICOMPONENT LIQUID-LIQUID EQUILIBRIUM DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. STRAGEVITCH

    1997-03-01

    Full Text Available The equations of the method based on the maximum likelihood principle have been rewritten in a suitable generalized form to allow the use of any number of implicit constraints in the determination of model parameters from experimental data and from the associated experimental uncertainties. In addition to the use of any number of constraints, this method also allows data, with different numbers of constraints, to be reduced simultaneously. Application of the method is illustrated in the reduction of liquid-liquid equilibrium data of binary, ternary and quaternary systems simultaneously

  18. N3 Bias Field Correction Explained as a Bayesian Modeling Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian Thode; Iglesias, Juan Eugenio; Van Leemput, Koen

    2014-01-01

    Although N3 is perhaps the most widely used method for MRI bias field correction, its underlying mechanism is in fact not well understood. Specifically, the method relies on a relatively heuristic recipe of alternating iterative steps that does not optimize any particular objective function. In t...

  19. Bayesian inference in processing experimental data: principles and basic applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Agostini, G

    2003-01-01

    This paper introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as the following: model comparison (including the automatic Ockham's Razor filter provided by the Bayesian approach); parametric inference; quantification of the uncertainty about the value of physical quantities, also taking into account systematic effects; role of marginalization; posterior characterization; predictive distributions; hierarchical modelling and hyperparameters; Gaussian approximation of the posterior and recovery of conventional methods, especially maximum likelihood and chi-square fits under well-defined conditions; conjugate priors, transformation invariance and maximum entropy motivated priors; and Monte Carlo (MC) estimates of expectation, including a short introduction to Markov Chain MC methods

  20. Bayesian Exponential Smoothing.

    OpenAIRE

    Forbes, C.S.; Snyder, R.D.; Shami, R.S.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, a Bayesian version of the exponential smoothing method of forecasting is proposed. The approach is based on a state space model containing only a single source of error for each time interval. This model allows us to improve current practices surrounding exponential smoothing by providing both point predictions and measures of the uncertainty surrounding them.

  1. Fast neutron spectra unfolding with SAND-11 and maximum likelihoed methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bondars, Kh.Ya.; Kamnev, V.A.; Lapenas, A.A.; Troshin, V.S.

    1980-01-01

    Mutual comparison of the methods SAND-II and maximal likeness for neutron spectra determination are represented. Spectra were restored according to the measures reaction rate of ten activation detectors using the device B-2 of the reactor BR-5 behind two thicknesses of steel-graphite shielding: Z=6.5 cm and Z=42.5 cm. The influence of earlier information on the results of neutron spectra determination was studied. Differential and integral energy dependences of neutron flux density for three initial spectra and two cross section libraries (BGS-1 and ZACRSS) are presented. The both methods yield close differential spectra (discrepancies < 10 %) when identical cross section libraries and reference spectra are used

  2. A Laplace method for under-determined Bayesian optimal experimental designs

    KAUST Repository

    Long, Quan; Scavino, Marco; Tempone, Raul; Wang, Suojin

    2014-01-01

    In Long et al. (2013), a new method based on the Laplace approximation was developed to accelerate the estimation of the post-experimental expected information gains (Kullback–Leibler divergence) in model parameters and predictive quantities

  3. DRABAL: novel method to mine large high-throughput screening assays using Bayesian active learning

    KAUST Repository

    Soufan, Othman; Ba Alawi, Wail; Afeef, Moataz A.; Essack, Magbubah; Kalnis, Panos; Bajic, Vladimir B.

    2016-01-01

    Mining high-throughput screening (HTS) assays is key for enhancing decisions in the area of drug repositioning and drug discovery. However, many challenges are encountered in the process of developing suitable and accurate methods

  4. About approximation of integer factorization problem by the combination fixed-point iteration method and Bayesian rounding for quantum cryptography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogorodnikov, Yuri; Khachay, Michael; Pljonkin, Anton

    2018-04-01

    We describe the possibility of employing the special case of the 3-SAT problem stemming from the well known integer factorization problem for the quantum cryptography. It is known, that for every instance of our 3-SAT setting the given 3-CNF is satisfiable by a unique truth assignment, and the goal is to find this assignment. Since the complexity status of the factorization problem is still undefined, development of approximation algorithms and heuristics adopts interest of numerous researchers. One of promising approaches to construction of approximation techniques is based on real-valued relaxation of the given 3-CNF followed by minimizing of the appropriate differentiable loss function, and subsequent rounding of the fractional minimizer obtained. Actually, algorithms developed this way differ by the rounding scheme applied on their final stage. We propose a new rounding scheme based on Bayesian learning. The article shows that the proposed method can be used to determine the security in quantum key distribution systems. In the quantum distribution the Shannon rules is applied and the factorization problem is paramount when decrypting secret keys.

  5. Application of a Bayesian/generalised least-squares method to generate correlations between independent neutron fission yield data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiorito, L.; Diez, C.; Cabellos, O.; Stankovskiy, A.; Van den Eynde, G.; Labeau, P.E.

    2014-01-01

    Fission product yields are fundamental parameters for several nuclear engineering calculations and in particular for burn-up/activation problems. The impact of their uncertainties was widely studied in the past and evaluations were released, although still incomplete. Recently, the nuclear community expressed the need for full fission yield covariance matrices to produce inventory calculation results that take into account the complete uncertainty data. In this work, we studied and applied a Bayesian/generalised least-squares method for covariance generation, and compared the generated uncertainties to the original data stored in the JEFF-3.1.2 library. Then, we focused on the effect of fission yield covariance information on fission pulse decay heat results for thermal fission of 235 U. Calculations were carried out using different codes (ACAB and ALEPH-2) after introducing the new covariance values. Results were compared with those obtained with the uncertainty data currently provided by the library. The uncertainty quantification was performed with the Monte Carlo sampling technique. Indeed, correlations between fission yields strongly affect the statistics of decay heat. (authors)

  6. Efficient reliability analysis of structures with the rotational quasi-symmetric point- and the maximum entropy methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jun; Dang, Chao; Kong, Fan

    2017-10-01

    This paper presents a new method for efficient structural reliability analysis. In this method, a rotational quasi-symmetric point method (RQ-SPM) is proposed for evaluating the fractional moments of the performance function. Then, the derivation of the performance function's probability density function (PDF) is carried out based on the maximum entropy method in which constraints are specified in terms of fractional moments. In this regard, the probability of failure can be obtained by a simple integral over the performance function's PDF. Six examples, including a finite element-based reliability analysis and a dynamic system with strong nonlinearity, are used to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed method. All the computed results are compared with those by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). It is found that the proposed method can provide very accurate results with low computational effort.

  7. Bayesian inference with ecological applications

    CERN Document Server

    Link, William A

    2009-01-01

    This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...

  8. Analytical maximum-likelihood method to detect patterns in real networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Squartini, Tiziano; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2011-01-01

    In order to detect patterns in real networks, randomized graph ensembles that preserve only part of the topology of an observed network are systematically used as fundamental null models. However, the generation of them is still problematic. Existing approaches are either computationally demanding and beyond analytic control or analytically accessible but highly approximate. Here, we propose a solution to this long-standing problem by introducing a fast method that allows one to obtain expectation values and standard deviations of any topological property analytically, for any binary, weighted, directed or undirected network. Remarkably, the time required to obtain the expectation value of any property analytically across the entire graph ensemble is as short as that required to compute the same property using the adjacency matrix of the single original network. Our method reveals that the null behavior of various correlation properties is different from what was believed previously, and is highly sensitive to the particular network considered. Moreover, our approach shows that important structural properties (such as the modularity used in community detection problems) are currently based on incorrect expressions, and provides the exact quantities that should replace them.

  9. Bayesian approach to inverse statistical mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habeck, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Inverse statistical mechanics aims to determine particle interactions from ensemble properties. This article looks at this inverse problem from a Bayesian perspective and discusses several statistical estimators to solve it. In addition, a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed that draws the interaction parameters from their posterior probability distribution. The posterior probability involves an intractable partition function that is estimated along with the interactions. The method is illustrated for inverse problems of varying complexity, including the estimation of a temperature, the inverse Ising problem, maximum entropy fitting, and the reconstruction of molecular interaction potentials.

  10. Bayesian methods for meta-analysis of causal relationships estimated using genetic instrumental variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burgess, Stephen; Thompson, Simon G; Thompson, Grahame

    2010-01-01

    Genetic markers can be used as instrumental variables, in an analogous way to randomization in a clinical trial, to estimate the causal relationship between a phenotype and an outcome variable. Our purpose is to extend the existing methods for such Mendelian randomization studies to the context o...

  11. Data Analytics of Mobile Serious Games: Applying Bayesian Data Analysis Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heide Lukosch

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Traditional teaching methods in the field of resuscitation training show some limitations, while teaching the right actions in critical situations could increase the number of people saved after a cardiac arrest. For our study, we developed a mobile game to support the transfer of theoretical knowledge on resuscitation.  The game has been tested at three schools of further education. A number of data has been collected from 171 players. To analyze this large data set from different sources and quality, different types of data modeling and analyses had to be applied. This approach showed its usefulness in analyzing the large set of data from different sources. It revealed some interesting findings, such as that female players outperformed the male ones, and that the game fostering informal, self-directed is equally efficient as the traditional formal learning method.

  12. FPGA Acceleration of the phylogenetic likelihood function for Bayesian MCMC inference methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakos Jason D

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Likelihood (ML-based phylogenetic inference has become a popular method for estimating the evolutionary relationships among species based on genomic sequence data. This method is used in applications such as RAxML, GARLI, MrBayes, PAML, and PAUP. The Phylogenetic Likelihood Function (PLF is an important kernel computation for this method. The PLF consists of a loop with no conditional behavior or dependencies between iterations. As such it contains a high potential for exploiting parallelism using micro-architectural techniques. In this paper, we describe a technique for mapping the PLF and supporting logic onto a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA-based co-processor. By leveraging the FPGA's on-chip DSP modules and the high-bandwidth local memory attached to the FPGA, the resultant co-processor can accelerate ML-based methods and outperform state-of-the-art multi-core processors. Results We use the MrBayes 3 tool as a framework for designing our co-processor. For large datasets, we estimate that our accelerated MrBayes, if run on a current-generation FPGA, achieves a 10× speedup relative to software running on a state-of-the-art server-class microprocessor. The FPGA-based implementation achieves its performance by deeply pipelining the likelihood computations, performing multiple floating-point operations in parallel, and through a natural log approximation that is chosen specifically to leverage a deeply pipelined custom architecture. Conclusions Heterogeneous computing, which combines general-purpose processors with special-purpose co-processors such as FPGAs and GPUs, is a promising approach for high-performance phylogeny inference as shown by the growing body of literature in this field. FPGAs in particular are well-suited for this task because of their low power consumption as compared to many-core processors and Graphics Processor Units (GPUs 1.

  13. A Hamiltonian Monte–Carlo method for Bayesian inference of supermassive black hole binaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Porter, Edward K; Carré, Jérôme

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the use of a Hamiltonian Monte–Carlo to map out the posterior density function for supermassive black hole binaries. While previous Markov Chain Monte–Carlo (MCMC) methods, such as Metropolis–Hastings MCMC, have been successfully employed for a number of different gravitational wave sources, these methods are essentially random walk algorithms. The Hamiltonian Monte–Carlo treats the inverse likelihood surface as a ‘gravitational potential’ and by introducing canonical positions and momenta, dynamically evolves the Markov chain by solving Hamilton's equations of motion. This method is not as widely used as other MCMC algorithms due to the necessity of calculating gradients of the log-likelihood, which for most applications results in a bottleneck that makes the algorithm computationally prohibitive. We circumvent this problem by using accepted initial phase-space trajectory points to analytically fit for each of the individual gradients. Eliminating the waveform generation needed for the numerical derivatives reduces the total number of required templates for a 10 6 iteration chain from ∼10 9 to ∼10 6 . The result is in an implementation of the Hamiltonian Monte–Carlo that is faster, and more efficient by a factor of approximately the dimension of the parameter space, than a Hessian MCMC. (paper)

  14. Spatio-temporal spike train analysis for large scale networks using the maximum entropy principle and Monte Carlo method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nasser, Hassan; Cessac, Bruno; Marre, Olivier

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the dynamics of neural networks is a major challenge in experimental neuroscience. For that purpose, a modelling of the recorded activity that reproduces the main statistics of the data is required. In the first part, we present a review on recent results dealing with spike train statistics analysis using maximum entropy models (MaxEnt). Most of these studies have focused on modelling synchronous spike patterns, leaving aside the temporal dynamics of the neural activity. However, the maximum entropy principle can be generalized to the temporal case, leading to Markovian models where memory effects and time correlations in the dynamics are properly taken into account. In the second part, we present a new method based on Monte Carlo sampling which is suited for the fitting of large-scale spatio-temporal MaxEnt models. The formalism and the tools presented here will be essential to fit MaxEnt spatio-temporal models to large neural ensembles. (paper)

  15. Bayesian methods for jointly estimating genomic breeding values of one continuous and one threshold trait.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chonglong Wang

    Full Text Available Genomic selection has become a useful tool for animal and plant breeding. Currently, genomic evaluation is usually carried out using a single-trait model. However, a multi-trait model has the advantage of using information on the correlated traits, leading to more accurate genomic prediction. To date, joint genomic prediction for a continuous and a threshold trait using a multi-trait model is scarce and needs more attention. Based on the previously proposed methods BayesCπ for single continuous trait and BayesTCπ for single threshold trait, we developed a novel method based on a linear-threshold model, i.e., LT-BayesCπ, for joint genomic prediction of a continuous trait and a threshold trait. Computing procedures of LT-BayesCπ using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm were derived. A simulation study was performed to investigate the advantages of LT-BayesCπ over BayesCπ and BayesTCπ with regard to the accuracy of genomic prediction on both traits. Factors affecting the performance of LT-BayesCπ were addressed. The results showed that, in all scenarios, the accuracy of genomic prediction obtained from LT-BayesCπ was significantly increased for the threshold trait compared to that from single trait prediction using BayesTCπ, while the accuracy for the continuous trait was comparable with that from single trait prediction using BayesCπ. The proposed LT-BayesCπ could be a method of choice for joint genomic prediction of one continuous and one threshold trait.

  16. A method for risk-informed safety significance categorization using the analytic hierarchy process and bayesian belief networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Jun Su; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2004-01-01

    A risk-informed safety significance categorization (RISSC) is to categorize structures, systems, or components (SSCs) of a nuclear power plant (NPP) into two or more groups, according to their safety significance using both probabilistic and deterministic insights. In the conventional methods for the RISSC, the SSCs are quantitatively categorized according to their importance measures for the initial categorization. The final decisions (categorizations) of SSCs, however, are qualitatively made by an expert panel through discussions and adjustments of opinions by using the probabilistic insights compiled in the initial categorization process and combining the probabilistic insights with the deterministic insights. Therefore, owing to the qualitative and linear decision-making process, the conventional methods have the demerits as follows: (1) they are very costly in terms of time and labor, (2) it is not easy to reach the final decision, when the opinions of the experts are in conflict and (3) they have an overlapping process due to the linear paradigm (the categorization is performed twice - first, by the engineers who propose the method, and second, by the expert panel). In this work, a method for RISSC using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and bayesian belief networks (BBN) is proposed to overcome the demerits of the conventional methods and to effectively arrive at a final decision (or categorization). By using the AHP and BBN, the expert panel takes part in the early stage of the categorization (that is, the quantification process) and the safety significance based on both probabilistic and deterministic insights is quantified. According to that safety significance, SSCs are quantitatively categorized into three categories such as high safety significant category (Hi), potentially safety significant category (Po), or low safety significant category (Lo). The proposed method was applied to the components such as CC-V073, CV-V530, and SI-V644 in Ulchin Unit

  17. Learning to Recommend Point-of-Interest with the Weighted Bayesian Personalized Ranking Method in LBSNs

    OpenAIRE

    Lei Guo; Haoran Jiang; Xinhua Wang; Fangai Liu

    2017-01-01

    Point-of-interest (POI) recommendation has been well studied in recent years. However, most of the existing methods focus on the recommendation scenarios where users can provide explicit feedback. In most cases, however, the feedback is not explicit, but implicit. For example, we can only get a user’s check-in behaviors from the history of what POIs she/he has visited, but never know how much she/he likes and why she/he does not like them. Recently, some researchers have noticed this problem ...

  18. A Bayesian method for identifying missing enzymes in predicted metabolic pathway databases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karp Peter D

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The PathoLogic program constructs Pathway/Genome databases by using a genome's annotation to predict the set of metabolic pathways present in an organism. PathoLogic determines the set of reactions composing those pathways from the enzymes annotated in the organism's genome. Most annotation efforts fail to assign function to 40–60% of sequences. In addition, large numbers of sequences may have non-specific annotations (e.g., thiolase family protein. Pathway holes occur when a genome appears to lack the enzymes needed to catalyze reactions in a pathway. If a protein has not been assigned a specific function during the annotation process, any reaction catalyzed by that protein will appear as a missing enzyme or pathway hole in a Pathway/Genome database. Results We have developed a method that efficiently combines homology and pathway-based evidence to identify candidates for filling pathway holes in Pathway/Genome databases. Our program not only identifies potential candidate sequences for pathway holes, but combines data from multiple, heterogeneous sources to assess the likelihood that a candidate has the required function. Our algorithm emulates the manual sequence annotation process, considering not only evidence from homology searches, but also considering evidence from genomic context (i.e., is the gene part of an operon? and functional context (e.g., are there functionally-related genes nearby in the genome? to determine the posterior belief that a candidate has the required function. The method can be applied across an entire metabolic pathway network and is generally applicable to any pathway database. The program uses a set of sequences encoding the required activity in other genomes to identify candidate proteins in the genome of interest, and then evaluates each candidate by using a simple Bayes classifier to determine the probability that the candidate has the desired function. We achieved 71% precision at a

  19. Application of Bayesian Method in Validation of TTM Decisional Balance and Self-Efficacy Constructs to Improve Nutritional Behavior in Yazdian Prediabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Fallahzadeh

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: To introduce Bayesian method in validation of transtheoretical model’s Self-Efficacy and Decisional Balance for nutritional behavior improvement among Prediabetes with ordinal data. Methods: This is an Experimental trial with parallel design and sample was included 220 Prediabetes who Participated in screening program and had over 30 years old, fasting blood glucose ranged 100-125 and at least elementary Education. We used OpenBugs 3.2.3 to fit Bayesian ordinal factor analysis to achieve validation of TTM’s decisional balance and self-efficacy. Results: All of the factor loadings corresponded to mentioned constructs was significant at α= 0.05%. That support validation of the Constructs. Correlation between Pros and Cons was not significant(-0.076, 0.007.Furthermore a specific statistical model for ordinal data created that can estimate odds ratios and marginal Probabilities for each choice of any item in questionnaire. Conclusion: Thanks to benefits of Bayesian method in use of prior information such as Meta-analysis and other resources, In comparison to similar studies that used standard or other factor analysis for ordinal data, our results had good accuracy(with aspect to standard deviation even with lower sample size.so the results can be used  in future clinical researches.

  20. CONTROL BASED ON NUMERICAL METHODS AND RECURSIVE BAYESIAN ESTIMATION IN A CONTINUOUS ALCOHOLIC FERMENTATION PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga L. Quintero

    Full Text Available Biotechnological processes represent a challenge in the control field, due to their high nonlinearity. In particular, continuous alcoholic fermentation from Zymomonas mobilis (Z.m presents a significant challenge. This bioprocess has high ethanol performance, but it exhibits an oscillatory behavior in process variables due to the influence of inhibition dynamics (rate of ethanol concentration over biomass, substrate, and product concentrations. In this work a new solution for control of biotechnological variables in the fermentation process is proposed, based on numerical methods and linear algebra. In addition, an improvement to a previously reported state estimator, based on particle filtering techniques, is used in the control loop. The feasibility estimator and its performance are demonstrated in the proposed control loop. This methodology makes it possible to develop a controller design through the use of dynamic analysis with a tested biomass estimator in Z.m and without the use of complex calculations.

  1. A Bayesian method to rank different model forecasts of the same volcanic ash cloud: Chapter 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denlinger, Roger P.; Webley, P.; Mastin, Larry G.; Schwaiger, Hans F.

    2012-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions often spew fine ash high into the atmosphere, where it is carried downwind, forming long ash clouds that disrupt air traffic and pose a hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community studying ash hazards must assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust and accurate forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. We provide a quantitative and objective method to evaluate the efficacy of ash dispersal estimates from different models, using Bayes theorem to assess the predictions that each model makes about ash dispersal. We incorporate model and measurement uncertainty and produce a posterior probability for model input parameters. The integral of the posterior over all possible combinations of model inputs determines the evidence for each model and is used to compare models. We compare two different types of transport models, an Eulerian model (Ash3d) and a Langrangian model (PUFF), as applied to the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. The evidence for each model benefits from common physical characteristics of ash dispersal from an eruption column and provides a measure of how well each model forecasts cloud transport. Given the complexity of the wind fields, we find that the differences between these models depend upon the differences in the way the models disperse ash into the wind from the source plume. With continued observation, the accuracy of the estimates made by each model increases, increasing the efficacy of each model’s ability to simulate ash dispersal.

  2. Bayesian mixture modeling of significant p values: A meta-analytic method to estimate the degree of contamination from H₀.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronau, Quentin Frederik; Duizer, Monique; Bakker, Marjan; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2017-09-01

    Publication bias and questionable research practices have long been known to corrupt the published record. One method to assess the extent of this corruption is to examine the meta-analytic collection of significant p values, the so-called p -curve (Simonsohn, Nelson, & Simmons, 2014a). Inspired by statistical research on false-discovery rates, we propose a Bayesian mixture model analysis of the p -curve. Our mixture model assumes that significant p values arise either from the null-hypothesis H ₀ (when their distribution is uniform) or from the alternative hypothesis H1 (when their distribution is accounted for by a simple parametric model). The mixture model estimates the proportion of significant results that originate from H ₀, but it also estimates the probability that each specific p value originates from H ₀. We apply our model to 2 examples. The first concerns the set of 587 significant p values for all t tests published in the 2007 volumes of Psychonomic Bulletin & Review and the Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition; the mixture model reveals that p values higher than about .005 are more likely to stem from H ₀ than from H ₁. The second example concerns 159 significant p values from studies on social priming and 130 from yoked control studies. The results from the yoked controls confirm the findings from the first example, whereas the results from the social priming studies are difficult to interpret because they are sensitive to the prior specification. To maximize accessibility, we provide a web application that allows researchers to apply the mixture model to any set of significant p values. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Studies of the pressure dependence of the charge density distribution in cerium phosphide by the maximum-entropy method

    CERN Document Server

    Ishimatsu, N; Takata, M; Nishibori, E; Sakata, M; Hayashi, J; Shirotani, I; Shimomura, O

    2002-01-01

    The physical properties relating to 4f electrons in cerium phosphide, especially the temperature dependence and the isomorphous transition that occurs at around 10 GPa, were studied by means of x-ray powder diffraction and charge density distribution maps derived by the maximum-entropy method. The compressibility of CeP was exactly determined using a helium pressure medium and the anomaly that indicated the isomorphous transition was observed in the compressibility. We also discuss the anisotropic charge density distribution of Ce ions and its temperature dependence.

  4. Semi-Parametric Maximum Likelihood Method for Interaction in Case-Mother Control-Mother Designs: Package SPmlficmcm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moliere Nguile-Makao

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of interaction effects involving genetic variants and environmental exposures on the risk of adverse obstetric and early-life outcomes is generally performed using standard logistic regression in the case-mother and control-mother design. However such an analysis is inefficient because it does not take into account the natural family-based constraints present in the parent-child relationship. Recently, a new approach based on semi-parametric maximum likelihood estimation was proposed. The advantage of this approach is that it takes into account the parental relationship between the mother and her child in estimation. But a package implementing this method has not been widely available. In this paper, we present SPmlficmcm, an R package implementing this new method and we propose an extension of the method to handle missing offspring genotype data by maximum likelihood estimation. Our choice to treat missing data of the offspring genotype was motivated by the fact that in genetic association studies where the genetic data of mother and child are available, there are usually more missing data on the genotype of the offspring than that of the mother. The package builds a non-linear system from the data and solves and computes the estimates from the gradient and the Hessian matrix of the log profile semi-parametric likelihood function. Finally, we analyze a simulated dataset to show the usefulness of the package.

  5. Comparative Study of Regional Estimation Methods for Daily Maximum Temperature (A Case Study of the Isfahan Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghamar Fadavi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: As the statistical time series are in short period and the meteorological station are not distributed well in mountainous area determining of climatic criteria are complex. Therefore, in recent years interpolation methods for establishment of continuous climatic data have been considered. Continuous daily maximum temperature data are a key factor for climate-crop modeling which is fundamental for water resources management, drought, and optimal use from climatic potentials of different regions. The main objective of this study is to evaluate different interpolation methods for estimation of regional maximum temperature in the Isfahan province. Materials and Methods: Isfahan province has about 937,105 square kilometers, between 30 degree and 43 minutes to 34 degree and 27 minutes North latitude equator line and 49 degree and 36 minutes to 55 degree and 31 minutes east longitude Greenwich. It is located in the center of Iran and it's western part extend to eastern footage of the Zagros mountain range. It should be mentioned that elevation range of meteorological stations are between 845 to 2490 in the study area. This study was done using daily maximum temperature data of 1992 and 2007 years of synoptic and climatology stations of I.R. of Iran meteorological organization (IRIMO. In order to interpolate temperature data, two years including 1992 and 2007 with different number of meteorological stations have been selected the temperature data of thirty meteorological stations (17 synoptic and 13 climatologically stations for 1992 year and fifty four meteorological stations (31 synoptic and 23 climatologically stations for 2007 year were used from Isfahan province and neighboring provinces. In order to regionalize the point data of daily maximum temperature, the interpolation methods, including inverse distance weighted (IDW, Kriging, Co-Kriging, Kriging-Regression, multiple regression and Spline were used. Therefore, for this allocated

  6. Monitoring county-level chlamydia incidence in Texas, 2004 – 2005: application of empirical Bayesian smoothing and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Owens Chantelle J

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chlamydia continues to be the most prevalent disease in the United States. Effective spatial monitoring of chlamydia incidence is important for successful implementation of control and prevention programs. The objective of this study is to apply Bayesian smoothing and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA methods to monitor Texas county-level chlamydia incidence rates by examining spatiotemporal patterns. We used county-level data on chlamydia incidence (for all ages, gender and races from the National Electronic Telecommunications System for Surveillance (NETSS for 2004 and 2005. Results Bayesian-smoothed chlamydia incidence rates were spatially dependent both in levels and in relative changes. Erath county had significantly (p 300 cases per 100,000 residents than its contiguous neighbors (195 or less in both years. Gaines county experienced the highest relative increase in smoothed rates (173% – 139 to 379. The relative change in smoothed chlamydia rates in Newton county was significantly (p Conclusion Bayesian smoothing and ESDA methods can assist programs in using chlamydia surveillance data to identify outliers, as well as relevant changes in chlamydia incidence in specific geographic units. Secondly, it may also indirectly help in assessing existing differences and changes in chlamydia surveillance systems over time.

  7. Performance and separation occurrence of binary probit regression estimator using maximum likelihood method and Firths approach under different sample size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lusiana, Evellin Dewi

    2017-12-01

    The parameters of binary probit regression model are commonly estimated by using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. However, MLE method has limitation if the binary data contains separation. Separation is the condition where there are one or several independent variables that exactly grouped the categories in binary response. It will result the estimators of MLE method become non-convergent, so that they cannot be used in modeling. One of the effort to resolve the separation is using Firths approach instead. This research has two aims. First, to identify the chance of separation occurrence in binary probit regression model between MLE method and Firths approach. Second, to compare the performance of binary probit regression model estimator that obtained by MLE method and Firths approach using RMSE criteria. Those are performed using simulation method and under different sample size. The results showed that the chance of separation occurrence in MLE method for small sample size is higher than Firths approach. On the other hand, for larger sample size, the probability decreased and relatively identic between MLE method and Firths approach. Meanwhile, Firths estimators have smaller RMSE than MLEs especially for smaller sample sizes. But for larger sample sizes, the RMSEs are not much different. It means that Firths estimators outperformed MLE estimator.

  8. Supplementary Material for: DRABAL: novel method to mine large high-throughput screening assays using Bayesian active learning

    KAUST Repository

    Soufan, Othman; Ba Alawi, Wail; Afeef, Moataz A.; Essack, Magbubah; Kalnis, Panos; Bajic, Vladimir B.

    2016-01-01

    of compounds that were not tested in particular assays. Results Here we present DRABAL, a novel MLC solution that incorporates structure learning of a Bayesian network as a step to model dependency between the HTS assays. In this study, DRABAL was used

  9. Applied Bayesian hierarchical methods

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Congdon, P

    2010-01-01

    .... It also incorporates BayesX code, which is particularly useful in nonlinear regression. To demonstrate MCMC sampling from first principles, the author includes worked examples using the R package...

  10. Identification of a Threshold Value for the DEMATEL Method: Using the Maximum Mean De-Entropy Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung-Wei, Li; Gwo-Hshiung, Tzeng

    To deal with complex problems, structuring them through graphical representations and analyzing causal influences can aid in illuminating complex issues, systems, or concepts. The DEMATEL method is a methodology which can be used for researching and solving complicated and intertwined problem groups. The end product of the DEMATEL process is a visual representation—the impact-relations map—by which respondents organize their own actions in the world. The applicability of the DEMATEL method is widespread, ranging from analyzing world problematique decision making to industrial planning. The most important property of the DEMATEL method used in the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) field is to construct interrelations between criteria. In order to obtain a suitable impact-relations map, an appropriate threshold value is needed to obtain adequate information for further analysis and decision-making. In this paper, we propose a method based on the entropy approach, the maximum mean de-entropy algorithm, to achieve this purpose. Using real cases to find the interrelationships between the criteria for evaluating effects in E-learning programs as an examples, we will compare the results obtained from the respondents and from our method, and discuss that the different impact-relations maps from these two methods.

  11. Appropriateness of dynamical systems for the comparison of different embedding methods via calculation of the maximum Lyapunov exponent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franchi, M; Ricci, L

    2014-01-01

    The embedding of time series provides a valuable, and sometimes indispensable, tool in order to analyze the dynamical properties of a chaotic system. To this purpose, the choice of the embedding dimension and lag is decisive. The scientific literature describes several methods for selecting the most appropriate parameter pairs. Unfortunately, no conclusive criterion to decide which method – and thus which embedding pair – is the best has been so far devised. A widely employed quantity to compare different methods is the maximum Lyapunov exponent (MLE) because, for chaotic systems that have explicit analytic representations, MLE can be numerically evaluated independently of the embedding dimension and lag. Within this framework, we investigated the dependence on the calculated MLE on the embedding dimension and lag in the case of three dynamical systems that are also widespreadly used as reference systems, namely the Lorenz, Rössler and Mackey-Glass attractors. By also taking into account the statistical fluctuations of the calculated MLE, we propose a new method to assess which systems provide suitable test benches for the comparison of different embedding methods via MLE calculation. For example we found that, despite of its popularity in this scientific context, the Rössler attractor is not a reliable workbench to test the validity of an embedding method

  12. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

     Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...

  13. Sparse reconstruction using distribution agnostic bayesian matching pursuit

    KAUST Repository

    Masood, Mudassir; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.

    2013-01-01

    A fast matching pursuit method using a Bayesian approach is introduced for sparse signal recovery. This method performs Bayesian estimates of sparse signals even when the signal prior is non-Gaussian or unknown. It is agnostic on signal statistics

  14. Subjective Bayesian Beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.

    2015-01-01

    A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimenta...... economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule....

  15. Introduction to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Koch, Karl-Rudolf

    2007-01-01

    This book presents Bayes' theorem, the estimation of unknown parameters, the determination of confidence regions and the derivation of tests of hypotheses for the unknown parameters. It does so in a simple manner that is easy to comprehend. The book compares traditional and Bayesian methods with the rules of probability presented in a logical way allowing an intuitive understanding of random variables and their probability distributions to be formed.

  16. New algorithms and methods to estimate maximum-likelihood phylogenies: assessing the performance of PhyML 3.0.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guindon, Stéphane; Dufayard, Jean-François; Lefort, Vincent; Anisimova, Maria; Hordijk, Wim; Gascuel, Olivier

    2010-05-01

    PhyML is a phylogeny software based on the maximum-likelihood principle. Early PhyML versions used a fast algorithm performing nearest neighbor interchanges to improve a reasonable starting tree topology. Since the original publication (Guindon S., Gascuel O. 2003. A simple, fast and accurate algorithm to estimate large phylogenies by maximum likelihood. Syst. Biol. 52:696-704), PhyML has been widely used (>2500 citations in ISI Web of Science) because of its simplicity and a fair compromise between accuracy and speed. In the meantime, research around PhyML has continued, and this article describes the new algorithms and methods implemented in the program. First, we introduce a new algorithm to search the tree space with user-defined intensity using subtree pruning and regrafting topological moves. The parsimony criterion is used here to filter out the least promising topology modifications with respect to the likelihood function. The analysis of a large collection of real nucleotide and amino acid data sets of various sizes demonstrates the good performance of this method. Second, we describe a new test to assess the support of the data for internal branches of a phylogeny. This approach extends the recently proposed approximate likelihood-ratio test and relies on a nonparametric, Shimodaira-Hasegawa-like procedure. A detailed analysis of real alignments sheds light on the links between this new approach and the more classical nonparametric bootstrap method. Overall, our tests show that the last version (3.0) of PhyML is fast, accurate, stable, and ready to use. A Web server and binary files are available from http://www.atgc-montpellier.fr/phyml/.

  17. Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salarzadeh Jenatabadi, Hashem; Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

    2017-01-01

    Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.

  18. Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hashem Salarzadeh Jenatabadi

    Full Text Available Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.

  19. Remote Sensing of Three-dimensional Winds with Elastic Lidar: Explanation of Maximum Cross-correlation Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buttler, William T.; Soriano, Cecilia; Baldasano, Jose M.; Nickel, George H.

    Maximum cross-correlation provides a method toremotely de-ter-mine high-lyre-solved three-dimensional fields of horizontalwinds with e-las-tic li-darthrough-out large volumes of the planetaryboundary layer (PBL). This paperdetails the technique and shows comparisonsbetween elastic lidar winds, remotelysensed laser Doppler velocimeter (LDV) windprofiles, and radiosonde winds.Radiosonde wind data were acquired at Barcelona,Spain, during the BarcelonaAir-Quality Initiative (1992), and the LDVwind data were acquired at SunlandPark, New Mexico during the 1994 Border AreaAir-Quality Study. Comparisonsshow good agreement between the differentinstruments, and demonstrate the methoduseful for air pollution management at thelocal/regional scale. Elastic lidar windscould thus offer insight into aerosol andpollution transport within the PBL. Lidarwind fields might also be used to nudge orimprove initialization and evaluation ofatmospheric meteorological models.

  20. A Maximum Power Point Tracking Control Method of a Photovoltaic Power Generator with Consideration of Dynamic Characteristics of Solar Cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Takashi; Yoshida, Toshiya; Ohniwa, Katsumi

    This paper discusses a new control strategy for photovoltaic power generation systems with consideration of dynamic characteristics of the photovoltaic cells. The controller estimates internal currents of an equivalent circuit for the cells. This estimated, or the virtual current and the actual voltage of the cells are fed to a conventional Maximum-Power-Point-Tracking (MPPT) controller. Consequently, this MPPT controller still tracks the optimum point even though it is so designed that the seeking speed of the operating point is extremely high. This system may suit for applications, which are installed in rapidly changeable insolation and temperature-conditions e.g. automobiles, trains, and airplanes. The proposed method is verified by experiment with a combination of this estimating function and the modified Boehringer's MPPT algorithm.

  1. Practical aspects of a maximum likelihood estimation method to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iliff, K. W.; Maine, R. E.

    1976-01-01

    A maximum likelihood estimation method was applied to flight data and procedures to facilitate the routine analysis of a large amount of flight data were described. Techniques that can be used to obtain stability and control derivatives from aircraft maneuvers that are less than ideal for this purpose are described. The techniques involve detecting and correcting the effects of dependent or nearly dependent variables, structural vibration, data drift, inadequate instrumentation, and difficulties with the data acquisition system and the mathematical model. The use of uncertainty levels and multiple maneuver analysis also proved to be useful in improving the quality of the estimated coefficients. The procedures used for editing the data and for overall analysis are also discussed.

  2. Electronic structure of beta-FeSi sub 2 obtained by maximum entropy method and photoemission spectroscopy

    CERN Document Server

    Kakemoto, H; Makita, Y; Kino, Y; Tsukamoto, T; Shin, S; Wada, S; Tsurumi, T

    2003-01-01

    The electronic structure of beta-FeSi sub 2 was investigated by maximum entropy method (MEM) and photoemission spectroscopy. The electronic structure obtained by MEM using X-ray diffraction data at room temperature (RT) showed covalent bonds of Fe-Si and Si-Si electrons. The photoemission spectra of beta-FeSi sub 2 at RT were changed by incidence photon energies. For photon energies between 50 and 100 eV, resonant photoemission spectra caused by a super Coster-Kronig transition were observed. In order to reduce resonant effect about Fe(3d) for obtained photoemission spectra, difference spectrum between 53 and 57 eV was calculated, and it was compared with ab-initio band calculation and spectra function.

  3. Centroid and full-width at half maximum uncertainties of histogrammed data with an underlying Gaussian distribution -- The moments method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valentine, J.D.; Rana, A.E.

    1996-01-01

    The effect of approximating a continuous Gaussian distribution with histogrammed data are studied. The expressions for theoretical uncertainties in centroid and full-width at half maximum (FWHM), as determined by calculation of moments, are derived using the error propagation method for a histogrammed Gaussian distribution. The results are compared with the corresponding pseudo-experimental uncertainties for computer-generated histogrammed Gaussian peaks to demonstrate the effect of binning the data. It is shown that increasing the number of bins in the histogram improves the continuous distribution approximation. For example, a FWHM ≥ 9 and FWHM ≥ 12 bins are needed to reduce the pseudo-experimental standard deviation of FWHM to within ≥5% and ≥1%, respectively, of the theoretical value for a peak containing 10,000 counts. In addition, the uncertainties in the centroid and FWHM as a function of peak area are studied. Finally, Sheppard's correction is applied to partially correct for the binning effect

  4. Bayesian Graphical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2016-01-01

    Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes...

  5. FOREST TREE SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MAPPING USING LANDSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TOPOGRAPHIC VARIABLES WITH THE MAXIMUM ENTROPY METHOD IN MONGOLIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. H. Chiang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Forest is a very important ecosystem and natural resource for living things. Based on forest inventories, government is able to make decisions to converse, improve and manage forests in a sustainable way. Field work for forestry investigation is difficult and time consuming, because it needs intensive physical labor and the costs are high, especially surveying in remote mountainous regions. A reliable forest inventory can give us a more accurate and timely information to develop new and efficient approaches of forest management. The remote sensing technology has been recently used for forest investigation at a large scale. To produce an informative forest inventory, forest attributes, including tree species are unavoidably required to be considered. In this study the aim is to classify forest tree species in Erdenebulgan County, Huwsgul province in Mongolia, using Maximum Entropy method. The study area is covered by a dense forest which is almost 70% of total territorial extension of Erdenebulgan County and is located in a high mountain region in northern Mongolia. For this study, Landsat satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM were acquired to perform tree species mapping. The forest tree species inventory map was collected from the Forest Division of the Mongolian Ministry of Nature and Environment as training data and also used as ground truth to perform the accuracy assessment of the tree species classification. Landsat images and DEM were processed for maximum entropy modeling, and this study applied the model with two experiments. The first one is to use Landsat surface reflectance for tree species classification; and the second experiment incorporates terrain variables in addition to the Landsat surface reflectance to perform the tree species classification. All experimental results were compared with the tree species inventory to assess the classification accuracy. Results show that the second one which uses Landsat surface

  6. Forest Tree Species Distribution Mapping Using Landsat Satellite Imagery and Topographic Variables with the Maximum Entropy Method in Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao Chiang, Shou; Valdez, Miguel; Chen, Chi-Farn

    2016-06-01

    Forest is a very important ecosystem and natural resource for living things. Based on forest inventories, government is able to make decisions to converse, improve and manage forests in a sustainable way. Field work for forestry investigation is difficult and time consuming, because it needs intensive physical labor and the costs are high, especially surveying in remote mountainous regions. A reliable forest inventory can give us a more accurate and timely information to develop new and efficient approaches of forest management. The remote sensing technology has been recently used for forest investigation at a large scale. To produce an informative forest inventory, forest attributes, including tree species are unavoidably required to be considered. In this study the aim is to classify forest tree species in Erdenebulgan County, Huwsgul province in Mongolia, using Maximum Entropy method. The study area is covered by a dense forest which is almost 70% of total territorial extension of Erdenebulgan County and is located in a high mountain region in northern Mongolia. For this study, Landsat satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) were acquired to perform tree species mapping. The forest tree species inventory map was collected from the Forest Division of the Mongolian Ministry of Nature and Environment as training data and also used as ground truth to perform the accuracy assessment of the tree species classification. Landsat images and DEM were processed for maximum entropy modeling, and this study applied the model with two experiments. The first one is to use Landsat surface reflectance for tree species classification; and the second experiment incorporates terrain variables in addition to the Landsat surface reflectance to perform the tree species classification. All experimental results were compared with the tree species inventory to assess the classification accuracy. Results show that the second one which uses Landsat surface reflectance coupled

  7. Application of Bayesian Decision Theory Based on Prior Information in the Multi-Objective Optimization Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia Lei

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available General multi-objective optimization methods are hard to obtain prior information, how to utilize prior information has been a challenge. This paper analyzes the characteristics of Bayesian decision-making based on maximum entropy principle and prior information, especially in case that how to effectively improve decision-making reliability in deficiency of reference samples. The paper exhibits effectiveness of the proposed method using the real application of multi-frequency offset estimation in distributed multiple-input multiple-output system. The simulation results demonstrate Bayesian decision-making based on prior information has better global searching capability when sampling data is deficient.

  8. Design and simulation of maximum power point tracking (MPPT) system on solar module system using constant voltage (CV) method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatara, Sevty Satria; Iskandar, Reza Fauzi; Kirom, M. Ramdlan

    2016-02-01

    Solar energy is one of renewable energy resource where needs a photovoltaic module to convert it into electrical energy. One of the problems on solar energy conversion is the process of battery charging. To improve efficiency of energy conversion, PV system needs another control method on battery charging called maximum power point tracking (MPPT). This paper report the study on charging optimation using constant voltage (CV) method. This method has a function of determining output voltage of the PV system on maximal condition, so PV system will always produce a maximal energy. A model represented a PV system with and without MPPT was developed using Simulink. PV system simulation showed a different outcome energy when different solar radiation and numbers of solar module were applied in the model. On the simulation of solar radiation 1000 W/m2, PV system with MPPT produces 252.66 Watt energy and PV system without MPPT produces 252.66 Watt energy. The larger the solar radiation, the greater the energy of PV modules was produced.

  9. An Improved Surface Simplification Method for Facial Expression Animation Based on Homogeneous Coordinate Transformation Matrix and Maximum Shape Operator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juin-Ling Tseng

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Facial animation is one of the most popular 3D animation topics researched in recent years. However, when using facial animation, a 3D facial animation model has to be stored. This 3D facial animation model requires many triangles to accurately describe and demonstrate facial expression animation because the face often presents a number of different expressions. Consequently, the costs associated with facial animation have increased rapidly. In an effort to reduce storage costs, researchers have sought to simplify 3D animation models using techniques such as Deformation Sensitive Decimation and Feature Edge Quadric. The studies conducted have examined the problems in the homogeneity of the local coordinate system between different expression models and in the retainment of simplified model characteristics. This paper proposes a method that applies Homogeneous Coordinate Transformation Matrix to solve the problem of homogeneity of the local coordinate system and Maximum Shape Operator to detect shape changes in facial animation so as to properly preserve the features of facial expressions. Further, root mean square error and perceived quality error are used to compare the errors generated by different simplification methods in experiments. Experimental results show that, compared with Deformation Sensitive Decimation and Feature Edge Quadric, our method can not only reduce the errors caused by simplification of facial animation, but also retain more facial features.

  10. A Fast Numerical Method for Max-Convolution and the Application to Efficient Max-Product Inference in Bayesian Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serang, Oliver

    2015-08-01

    Observations depending on sums of random variables are common throughout many fields; however, no efficient solution is currently known for performing max-product inference on these sums of general discrete distributions (max-product inference can be used to obtain maximum a posteriori estimates). The limiting step to max-product inference is the max-convolution problem (sometimes presented in log-transformed form and denoted as "infimal convolution," "min-convolution," or "convolution on the tropical semiring"), for which no O(k log(k)) method is currently known. Presented here is an O(k log(k)) numerical method for estimating the max-convolution of two nonnegative vectors (e.g., two probability mass functions), where k is the length of the larger vector. This numerical max-convolution method is then demonstrated by performing fast max-product inference on a convolution tree, a data structure for performing fast inference given information on the sum of n discrete random variables in O(nk log(nk)log(n)) steps (where each random variable has an arbitrary prior distribution on k contiguous possible states). The numerical max-convolution method can be applied to specialized classes of hidden Markov models to reduce the runtime of computing the Viterbi path from nk(2) to nk log(k), and has potential application to the all-pairs shortest paths problem.

  11. Transport methods: general. 6. A Flux-Limited Diffusion Theory Derived from the Maximum Entropy Eddington Factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yin, Chukai; Su, Bingjing

    2001-01-01

    The Minerbo's maximum entropy Eddington factor (MEEF) method was proposed as a low-order approximation to transport theory, in which the first two moment equations are closed for the scalar flux f and the current F through a statistically derived nonlinear Eddington factor f. This closure has the ability to handle various degrees of anisotropy of angular flux and is well justified both numerically and theoretically. Thus, a lot of efforts have been made to use this approximation in transport computations, especially in the radiative transfer and astrophysics communities. However, the method suffers numerical instability and may lead to anomalous solutions if the equations are solved by certain commonly used (implicit) mesh schemes. Studies on numerical stability in one-dimensional cases show that the MEEF equations can be solved satisfactorily by an implicit scheme (of treating δΦ/δx) if the angular flux is not too anisotropic so that f 32 , the classic diffusion solution P 1 , the MEEF solution f M obtained by Riemann solvers, and the NFLD solution D M for the two problems, respectively. In Fig. 1, NFLD and MEEF quantitatively predict very close results. However, the NFLD solution is qualitatively better because it is continuous while MEEF predicts unphysical jumps near the middle of the slab. In Fig. 2, the NFLD and MEEF solutions are almost identical, except near the material interface. In summary, the flux-limited diffusion theory derived from the MEEF description is quantitatively as accurate as the MEEF method. However, it is more qualitatively correct and user-friendly than the MEEF method and can be applied efficiently to various steady-state problems. Numerical tests show that this method is widely valid and overall predicts better results than other low-order approximations for various kinds of problems, including eigenvalue problems. Thus, it is an appealing approximate solution technique that is fast computationally and yet is accurate enough for a

  12. Employing a Monte Carlo algorithm in Newton-type methods for restricted maximum likelihood estimation of genetic parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaarina Matilainen

    Full Text Available Estimation of variance components by Monte Carlo (MC expectation maximization (EM restricted maximum likelihood (REML is computationally efficient for large data sets and complex linear mixed effects models. However, efficiency may be lost due to the need for a large number of iterations of the EM algorithm. To decrease the computing time we explored the use of faster converging Newton-type algorithms within MC REML implementations. The implemented algorithms were: MC Newton-Raphson (NR, where the information matrix was generated via sampling; MC average information(AI, where the information was computed as an average of observed and expected information; and MC Broyden's method, where the zero of the gradient was searched using a quasi-Newton-type algorithm. Performance of these algorithms was evaluated using simulated data. The final estimates were in good agreement with corresponding analytical ones. MC NR REML and MC AI REML enhanced convergence compared to MC EM REML and gave standard errors for the estimates as a by-product. MC NR REML required a larger number of MC samples, while each MC AI REML iteration demanded extra solving of mixed model equations by the number of parameters to be estimated. MC Broyden's method required the largest number of MC samples with our small data and did not give standard errors for the parameters directly. We studied the performance of three different convergence criteria for the MC AI REML algorithm. Our results indicate the importance of defining a suitable convergence criterion and critical value in order to obtain an efficient Newton-type method utilizing a MC algorithm. Overall, use of a MC algorithm with Newton-type methods proved feasible and the results encourage testing of these methods with different kinds of large-scale problem settings.

  13. A Method of Maximum Power Control in Single-phase Utility Interactive Photovoltaic Generation System by using PWM Current Source Inverter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neba, Yasuhiko

    This paper deals with a maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control of the photovoltaic generation with the single-phase utility interactive inverter. The photovoltaic arrays are connected by employing the PWM current source inverter to the utility. The use of the pulsating dc current and voltage allows the maximum power point to be searched. The inverter can regulate the array voltage and keep the arrays to the maximum power. This paper gives the control method and the experimental results.

  14. Effectiveness of 3 methods of anchorage reinforcement for maximum anchorage in adolescents: A 3-arm multicenter randomized clinical trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandler, Jonathan; Murray, Alison; Thiruvenkatachari, Badri; Gutierrez, Rodrigo; Speight, Paul; O'Brien, Kevin

    2014-07-01

    The objective of this 3-arm parallel randomized clinical trial was to compare the effectiveness of temporary anchorage devices (TADs), Nance button palatal arches, and headgear for anchorage supplementation in the treatment of patients with malocclusions that required maximum anchorage. This trial was conducted between August 2008 and February 2013 in 2 orthodontic departments in the United Kingdom. The study included 78 patients (ages, 12-18 years; mean age, 14.2 years) who needed maximum anchorage. Eligibility criteria included no active caries, exemplary oral hygiene, and maximum anchorage required. The primary outcome was mesial molar movement during the period in which anchorage supplementation was required. The secondary outcomes were duration of anchorage reinforcement, number of treatment visits, number of casual and failed appointments, total treatment time, dento-occlusal change, and patients' perceptions of the method of anchorage supplementation. Treatment allocation was implemented by contacting via the Internet the randomization center at the University of Nottingham, Clinical Trials Unit. The randomization was based on a computer-generated pseudo-random code with random permuted blocks of randomly varying size. A research assistant who was blinded to the group allocation recorded all data. The patients were randomly allocated to receive anchorage supplementation with TADs, a Nance button on a palatal arch, or headgear. They were all treated with maxillary and mandibular preadjusted edgewise fixed appliances with 0.022-in slot prescription brackets. They were followed until orthodontic treatment was complete. Seventy-eight patients were randomized in a 1:1:1 ratio among the 3 groups. The baseline characteristics were similar in the groups, and they were treated for an average of 27.4 months (SD, 7.1 months); 71 completed orthodontic treatment. The data were analyzed on a per-protocol basis and showed no differences in the effectiveness of anchorage

  15. Bayesian nonparametric data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter; Jara, Alejandro; Hanson, Tim

    2015-01-01

    This book reviews nonparametric Bayesian methods and models that have proven useful in the context of data analysis. Rather than providing an encyclopedic review of probability models, the book’s structure follows a data analysis perspective. As such, the chapters are organized by traditional data analysis problems. In selecting specific nonparametric models, simpler and more traditional models are favored over specialized ones. The discussed methods are illustrated with a wealth of examples, including applications ranging from stylized examples to case studies from recent literature. The book also includes an extensive discussion of computational methods and details on their implementation. R code for many examples is included in on-line software pages.

  16. Robust Bayesian detection of unmodelled bursts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Searle, Antony C; Sutton, Patrick J; Tinto, Massimo; Woan, Graham

    2008-01-01

    We develop a Bayesian treatment of the problem of detecting unmodelled gravitational wave bursts using the new global network of interferometric detectors. We also compare this Bayesian treatment with existing coherent methods, and demonstrate that the existing methods make implicit assumptions on the distribution of signals that make them sub-optimal for realistic signal populations

  17. A Maximum-Likelihood Method to Correct for Allelic Dropout in Microsatellite Data with No Replicate Genotypes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chaolong; Schroeder, Kari B.; Rosenberg, Noah A.

    2012-01-01

    Allelic dropout is a commonly observed source of missing data in microsatellite genotypes, in which one or both allelic copies at a locus fail to be amplified by the polymerase chain reaction. Especially for samples with poor DNA quality, this problem causes a downward bias in estimates of observed heterozygosity and an upward bias in estimates of inbreeding, owing to mistaken classifications of heterozygotes as homozygotes when one of the two copies drops out. One general approach for avoiding allelic dropout involves repeated genotyping of homozygous loci to minimize the effects of experimental error. Existing computational alternatives often require replicate genotyping as well. These approaches, however, are costly and are suitable only when enough DNA is available for repeated genotyping. In this study, we propose a maximum-likelihood approach together with an expectation-maximization algorithm to jointly estimate allelic dropout rates and allele frequencies when only one set of nonreplicated genotypes is available. Our method considers estimates of allelic dropout caused by both sample-specific factors and locus-specific factors, and it allows for deviation from Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium owing to inbreeding. Using the estimated parameters, we correct the bias in the estimation of observed heterozygosity through the use of multiple imputations of alleles in cases where dropout might have occurred. With simulated data, we show that our method can (1) effectively reproduce patterns of missing data and heterozygosity observed in real data; (2) correctly estimate model parameters, including sample-specific dropout rates, locus-specific dropout rates, and the inbreeding coefficient; and (3) successfully correct the downward bias in estimating the observed heterozygosity. We find that our method is fairly robust to violations of model assumptions caused by population structure and by genotyping errors from sources other than allelic dropout. Because the data sets

  18. Quantifying the uncertainty in discharge data using hydraulic knowledge and uncertain gaugings: a Bayesian method named BaRatin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Coz, Jérôme; Renard, Benjamin; Bonnifait, Laurent; Branger, Flora; Le Boursicaud, Raphaël; Horner, Ivan; Mansanarez, Valentin; Lang, Michel; Vigneau, Sylvain

    2015-04-01

    River discharge is a crucial variable for Hydrology: as the output variable of most hydrologic models, it is used for sensitivity analyses, model structure identification, parameter estimation, data assimilation, prediction, etc. A major difficulty stems from the fact that river discharge is not measured continuously. Instead, discharge time series used by hydrologists are usually based on simple stage-discharge relations (rating curves) calibrated using a set of direct stage-discharge measurements (gaugings). In this presentation, we present a Bayesian approach (cf. Le Coz et al., 2014) to build such hydrometric rating curves, to estimate the associated uncertainty and to propagate this uncertainty to discharge time series. The three main steps of this approach are described: (1) Hydraulic analysis: identification of the hydraulic controls that govern the stage-discharge relation, identification of the rating curve equation and specification of prior distributions for the rating curve parameters; (2) Rating curve estimation: Bayesian inference of the rating curve parameters, accounting for the individual uncertainties of available gaugings, which often differ according to the discharge measurement procedure and the flow conditions; (3) Uncertainty propagation: quantification of the uncertainty in discharge time series, accounting for both the rating curve uncertainties and the uncertainty of recorded stage values. The rating curve uncertainties combine the parametric uncertainties and the remnant uncertainties that reflect the limited accuracy of the mathematical model used to simulate the physical stage-discharge relation. In addition, we also discuss current research activities, including the treatment of non-univocal stage-discharge relationships (e.g. due to hydraulic hysteresis, vegetation growth, sudden change of the geometry of the section, etc.). An operational version of the BaRatin software and its graphical interface are made available free of charge on

  19. Bayesian theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A

    2013-01-01

    The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...

  20. Bayesian probability theory and inverse problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopec, S.

    1994-01-01

    Bayesian probability theory is applied to approximate solving of the inverse problems. In order to solve the moment problem with the noisy data, the entropic prior is used. The expressions for the solution and its error bounds are presented. When the noise level tends to zero, the Bayesian solution tends to the classic maximum entropy solution in the L 2 norm. The way of using spline prior is also shown. (author)

  1. Air kerma rate estimation by means of in-situ gamma spectrometry: A Bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cabal, Gonzalo; Kluson, Jaroslav

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Bayesian inference is used to determine the Air Kerma Rate based on a set of in situ environmental gamma spectra measurements performed with a NaI(Tl) scintillation detector. A natural advantage of such approach is the possibility to quantify uncertainty not only in the Air Kerma Rate estimation but also for the gamma spectra which is unfolded within the procedure. The measurements were performed using a 3'' x 3'' NaI(Tl) scintillation detector. The response matrices of such detection system were calculated using a Monte Carlo code. For the calculations of the spectra as well as the Air Kerma Rate the WinBugs program was used. WinBugs is a dedicated software for Bayesian inference using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The results of such calculations are shown and compared with other non-Bayesian approachs such as the Scofield-Gold iterative method and the Maximum Entropy Method

  2. A Bayesian Classifier for X-Ray Pulsars Recognition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Liang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Recognition for X-ray pulsars is important for the problem of spacecraft’s attitude determination by X-ray Pulsar Navigation (XPNAV. By using the nonhomogeneous Poisson model of the received photons and the minimum recognition error criterion, a classifier based on the Bayesian theorem is proposed. For X-ray pulsars recognition with unknown Doppler frequency and initial phase, the features of every X-ray pulsar are extracted and the unknown parameters are estimated using the Maximum Likelihood (ML method. Besides that, a method to recognize unknown X-ray pulsars or X-ray disturbances is proposed. Simulation results certificate the validity of the proposed Bayesian classifier.

  3. Bayesian Peptide Peak Detection for High Resolution TOF Mass Spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianqiu; Zhou, Xiaobo; Wang, Honghui; Suffredini, Anthony; Zhang, Lin; Huang, Yufei; Wong, Stephen

    2010-11-01

    In this paper, we address the issue of peptide ion peak detection for high resolution time-of-flight (TOF) mass spectrometry (MS) data. A novel Bayesian peptide ion peak detection method is proposed for TOF data with resolution of 10 000-15 000 full width at half-maximum (FWHW). MS spectra exhibit distinct characteristics at this resolution, which are captured in a novel parametric model. Based on the proposed parametric model, a Bayesian peak detection algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is developed. The proposed algorithm is tested on both simulated and real datasets. The results show a significant improvement in detection performance over a commonly employed method. The results also agree with expert's visual inspection. Moreover, better detection consistency is achieved across MS datasets from patients with identical pathological condition.

  4. 12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo

    2015-01-01

    Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...

  5. Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lawson, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    .... Exploring these new developments, Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology, Second Edition provides an up-to-date, cohesive account of the full range of Bayesian disease mapping methods and applications...

  6. Theoretical evaluation of the detectability of random lesions in bayesian emission reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qi, Jinyi

    2003-01-01

    Detecting cancerous lesion is an important task in positron emission tomography (PET). Bayesian methods based on the maximum a posteriori principle (also called penalized maximum likelihood methods) have been developed to deal with the low signal to noise ratio in the emission data. Similar to the filter cut-off frequency in the filtered backprojection method, the prior parameters in Bayesian reconstruction control the resolution and noise trade-off and hence affect detectability of lesions in reconstructed images. Bayesian reconstructions are difficult to analyze because the resolution and noise properties are nonlinear and object-dependent. Most research has been based on Monte Carlo simulations, which are very time consuming. Building on the recent progress on the theoretical analysis of image properties of statistical reconstructions and the development of numerical observers, here we develop a theoretical approach for fast computation of lesion detectability in Bayesian reconstruction. The results can be used to choose the optimum hyperparameter for the maximum lesion detectability. New in this work is the use of theoretical expressions that explicitly model the statistical variation of the lesion and background without assuming that the object variation is (locally) stationary. The theoretical results are validated using Monte Carlo simulations. The comparisons show good agreement between the theoretical predications and the Monte Carlo results

  7. 3rd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

    CERN Document Server

    Lanzarone, Ettore; Villalobos, Isadora; Mattei, Alessandra

    2017-01-01

    This book is a selection of peer-reviewed contributions presented at the third Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM 2016, Florence, Italy, June 19-21. The meeting provided a unique opportunity for young researchers, M.S. students, Ph.D. students, and postdocs dealing with Bayesian statistics to connect with the Bayesian community at large, to exchange ideas, and to network with others working in the same field. The contributions develop and apply Bayesian methods in a variety of fields, ranging from the traditional (e.g., biostatistics and reliability) to the most innovative ones (e.g., big data and networks).

  8. A Trustworthiness Evaluation Method for Software Architectures Based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy (POME and the Grey Decision-Making Method (GDMM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rong Jiang

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available As the early design decision-making structure, a software architecture plays a key role in the final software product quality and the whole project. In the software design and development process, an effective evaluation of the trustworthiness of a software architecture can help making scientific and reasonable decisions on the architecture, which are necessary for the construction of highly trustworthy software. In consideration of lacking the trustworthiness evaluation and measurement studies for software architecture, this paper provides one trustworthy attribute model of software architecture. Based on this model, the paper proposes to use the Principle of Maximum Entropy (POME and Grey Decision-making Method (GDMM as the trustworthiness evaluation method of a software architecture and proves the scientificity and rationality of this method, as well as verifies the feasibility through case analysis.

  9. MR tractography; Visualization of structure of nerve fiber system from diffusion weighted images with maximum intensity projection method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kinosada, Yasutomi; Okuda, Yasuyuki (Mie Univ., Tsu (Japan). School of Medicine); Ono, Mototsugu (and others)

    1993-02-01

    We developed a new noninvasive technique to visualize the anatomical structure of the nerve fiber system in vivo, and named this technique magnetic resonance (MR) tractography and the acquired image an MR tractogram. MR tractography has two steps. One is to obtain diffusion-weighted images sensitized along axes appropriate for depicting the intended nerve fibers with anisotropic water diffusion MR imaging. The other is to extract the anatomical structure of the nerve fiber system from a series of diffusion-weighted images by the maximum intensity projection method. To examine the clinical usefulness of the proposed technique, many contiguous, thin (3 mm) coronal two-dimensional sections of the brain were acquired sequentially in normal volunteers and selected patients with paralyses, on a 1.5 Tesla MR system (Signa, GE) with an ECG-gated Stejskal-Tanner pulse sequence. The structure of the nerve fiber system of normal volunteers was almost the same as the anatomy. The tractograms of patients with paralyses clearly showed the degeneration of nerve fibers and were correlated with clinical symptoms. MR tractography showed great promise for the study of neuroanatomy and neuroradiology. (author).

  10. Feasibility of the Two-Point Method for Determining the One-Repetition Maximum in the Bench Press Exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Ramos, Amador; Haff, Guy Gregory; Pestaña-Melero, Francisco Luis; Pérez-Castilla, Alejandro; Rojas, Francisco Javier; Balsalobre-Fernández, Carlos; Jaric, Slobodan

    2017-09-05

    This study compared the concurrent validity and reliability of previously proposed generalized group equations for estimating the bench press (BP) one-repetition maximum (1RM) with the individualized load-velocity relationship modelled with a two-point method. Thirty men (BP 1RM relative to body mass: 1.08 0.18 kg·kg -1 ) performed two incremental loading tests in the concentric-only BP exercise and another two in the eccentric-concentric BP exercise to assess their actual 1RM and load-velocity relationships. A high velocity (≈ 1 m·s -1 ) and a low velocity (≈ 0.5 m·s -1 ) was selected from their load-velocity relationships to estimate the 1RM from generalized group equations and through an individual linear model obtained from the two velocities. The directly measured 1RM was highly correlated with all predicted 1RMs (r range: 0.847-0.977). The generalized group equations systematically underestimated the actual 1RM when predicted from the concentric-only BP (P <0.001; effect size [ES] range: 0.15-0.94), but overestimated it when predicted from the eccentric-concentric BP (P <0.001; ES range: 0.36-0.98). Conversely, a low systematic bias (range: -2.3-0.5 kg) and random errors (range: 3.0-3.8 kg), no heteroscedasticity of errors (r 2 range: 0.053-0.082), and trivial ES (range: -0.17-0.04) were observed when the prediction was based on the two-point method. Although all examined methods reported the 1RM with high reliability (CV≤5.1%; ICC≥0.89), the direct method was the most reliable (CV<2.0%; ICC≥0.98). The quick, fatigue-free, and practical two-point method was able to predict the BP 1RM with high reliability and practically perfect validity, and therefore we recommend its use over generalized group equations.

  11. A hierarchical method for Bayesian inference of rate parameters from shock tube data: Application to the study of the reaction of hydroxyl with 2-methylfuran

    KAUST Repository

    Kim, Daesang

    2017-06-22

    We developed a novel two-step hierarchical method for the Bayesian inference of the rate parameters of a target reaction from time-resolved concentration measurements in shock tubes. The method was applied to the calibration of the parameters of the reaction of hydroxyl with 2-methylfuran, which is studied experimentally via absorption measurements of the OH radical\\'s concentration following shock-heating. In the first step of the approach, each shock tube experiment is treated independently to infer the posterior distribution of the rate constant and error hyper-parameter that best explains the OH signal. In the second step, these posterior distributions are sampled to calibrate the parameters appearing in the Arrhenius reaction model for the rate constant. Furthermore, the second step is modified and repeated in order to explore alternative rate constant models and to assess the effect of uncertainties in the reflected shock\\'s temperature. Comparisons of the estimates obtained via the proposed methodology against the common least squares approach are presented. The relative merits of the novel Bayesian framework are highlighted, especially with respect to the opportunity to utilize the posterior distributions of the parameters in future uncertainty quantification studies.

  12. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2010-01-01

    Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

  13. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2003-01-01

    As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.

  14. Superior Reproducibility of the Leading to Leading Edge and Inner to Inner Edge Methods in the Ultrasound Assessment of Maximum Abdominal Aortic Diameter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borgbjerg, Jens; Bøgsted, Martin; Lindholt, Jes S

    2018-01-01

    Objectives: Controversy exists regarding optimal caliper placement in ultrasound assessment of maximum abdominal aortic diameter. This study aimed primarily to determine reproducibility of caliper placement in relation to the aortic wall with the three principal methods: leading to leading edge...

  15. Estimation of flashover voltage probability of overhead line insulators under industrial pollution, based on maximum likelihood method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arab, M.N.; Ayaz, M.

    2004-01-01

    The performance of transmission line insulator is greatly affected by dust, fumes from industrial areas and saline deposit near the coast. Such pollutants in the presence of moisture form a coating on the surface of the insulator, which in turn allows the passage of leakage current. This leakage builds up to a point where flashover develops. The flashover is often followed by permanent failure of insulation resulting in prolong outages. With the increase in system voltage owing to the greater demand of electrical energy over the past few decades, the importance of flashover due to pollution has received special attention. The objective of the present work was to study the performance of overhead line insulators in the presence of contaminants such as induced salts. A detailed review of the literature and the mechanisms of insulator flashover due to the pollution are presented. Experimental investigations on the behavior of overhead line insulators under industrial salt contamination are carried out. A special fog chamber was designed in which the contamination testing of insulators was carried out. Flashover behavior under various degrees of contamination of insulators with the most common industrial fume components such as Nitrate and Sulphate compounds was studied. Substituting the normal distribution parameter in the probability distribution function based on maximum likelihood develops a statistical method. The method gives a high accuracy in the estimation of the 50% flashover voltage, which is then used to evaluate the critical flashover index at various contamination levels. The critical flashover index is a valuable parameter in insulation design for numerous applications. (author)

  16. Estimation of the order of an autoregressive time series: a Bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robb, L.J.

    1980-01-01

    Finite-order autoregressive models for time series are often used for prediction and other inferences. Given the order of the model, the parameters of the models can be estimated by least-squares, maximum-likelihood, or Yule-Walker method. The basic problem is estimating the order of the model. The problem of autoregressive order estimation is placed in a Bayesian framework. This approach illustrates how the Bayesian method brings the numerous aspects of the problem together into a coherent structure. A joint prior probability density is proposed for the order, the partial autocorrelation coefficients, and the variance; and the marginal posterior probability distribution for the order, given the data, is obtained. It is noted that the value with maximum posterior probability is the Bayes estimate of the order with respect to a particular loss function. The asymptotic posterior distribution of the order is also given. In conclusion, Wolfer's sunspot data as well as simulated data corresponding to several autoregressive models are analyzed according to Akaike's method and the Bayesian method. Both methods are observed to perform quite well, although the Bayesian method was clearly superior, in most cases

  17. New phiomorph rodents from the latest Eocene of Egypt, and the impact of Bayesian "clock"-based phylogenetic methods on estimates of basal hystricognath relationships and biochronology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallam, Hesham M; Seiffert, Erik R

    2016-01-01

    The Fayum Depression of Egypt has yielded fossils of hystricognathous rodents from multiple Eocene and Oligocene horizons that range in age from ∼37 to ∼30 Ma and document several phases in the early evolution of crown Hystricognathi and one of its major subclades, Phiomorpha. Here we describe two new genera and species of basal phiomorphs, Birkamys korai and Mubhammys vadumensis, based on rostra and maxillary and mandibular remains from the terminal Eocene (∼34 Ma) Fayum Locality 41 (L-41). Birkamys is the smallest known Paleogene hystricognath, has very simple molars, and, like derived Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs (but unlike contemporaneous and older taxa) apparently retained dP(4)∕4 late into life, with no evidence for P(4)∕4 eruption or formation. Mubhammys is very similar in dental morphology to Birkamys, and also shows no evidence for P(4)∕4 formation or eruption, but is considerably larger. Though parsimony analysis with all characters equally weighted places Birkamys and Mubhammys as sister taxa of extant Thryonomys to the exclusion of much younger relatives of that genus, all other methods (standard Bayesian inference, Bayesian "tip-dating," and parsimony analysis with scaled transitions between "fixed" and polymorphic states) place these species in more basal positions within Hystricognathi, as sister taxa of Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs. We also employ tip-dating as a means for estimating the ages of early hystricognath-bearing localities, many of which are not well-constrained by geological, geochronological, or biostratigraphic evidence. By simultaneously taking into account phylogeny, evolutionary rates, and uniform priors that appropriately encompass the range of possible ages for fossil localities, dating of tips in this Bayesian framework allows paleontologists to move beyond vague and assumption-laden "stage of evolution" arguments in biochronology to provide relatively rigorous age assessments of poorly-constrained faunas. This

  18. New phiomorph rodents from the latest Eocene of Egypt, and the impact of Bayesian “clock”-based phylogenetic methods on estimates of basal hystricognath relationships and biochronology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hesham M. Sallam

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The Fayum Depression of Egypt has yielded fossils of hystricognathous rodents from multiple Eocene and Oligocene horizons that range in age from ∼37 to ∼30 Ma and document several phases in the early evolution of crown Hystricognathi and one of its major subclades, Phiomorpha. Here we describe two new genera and species of basal phiomorphs, Birkamys korai and Mubhammys vadumensis, based on rostra and maxillary and mandibular remains from the terminal Eocene (∼34 Ma Fayum Locality 41 (L-41. Birkamys is the smallest known Paleogene hystricognath, has very simple molars, and, like derived Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs (but unlike contemporaneous and older taxa apparently retained dP4∕4 late into life, with no evidence for P4∕4 eruption or formation. Mubhammys is very similar in dental morphology to Birkamys, and also shows no evidence for P4∕4 formation or eruption, but is considerably larger. Though parsimony analysis with all characters equally weighted places Birkamys and Mubhammys as sister taxa of extant Thryonomys to the exclusion of much younger relatives of that genus, all other methods (standard Bayesian inference, Bayesian “tip-dating,” and parsimony analysis with scaled transitions between “fixed” and polymorphic states place these species in more basal positions within Hystricognathi, as sister taxa of Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs. We also employ tip-dating as a means for estimating the ages of early hystricognath-bearing localities, many of which are not well-constrained by geological, geochronological, or biostratigraphic evidence. By simultaneously taking into account phylogeny, evolutionary rates, and uniform priors that appropriately encompass the range of possible ages for fossil localities, dating of tips in this Bayesian framework allows paleontologists to move beyond vague and assumption-laden “stage of evolution” arguments in biochronology to provide relatively rigorous age assessments of poorly

  19. New phiomorph rodents from the latest Eocene of Egypt, and the impact of Bayesian “clock”-based phylogenetic methods on estimates of basal hystricognath relationships and biochronology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    The Fayum Depression of Egypt has yielded fossils of hystricognathous rodents from multiple Eocene and Oligocene horizons that range in age from ∼37 to ∼30 Ma and document several phases in the early evolution of crown Hystricognathi and one of its major subclades, Phiomorpha. Here we describe two new genera and species of basal phiomorphs, Birkamys korai and Mubhammys vadumensis, based on rostra and maxillary and mandibular remains from the terminal Eocene (∼34 Ma) Fayum Locality 41 (L-41). Birkamys is the smallest known Paleogene hystricognath, has very simple molars, and, like derived Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs (but unlike contemporaneous and older taxa) apparently retained dP4∕4 late into life, with no evidence for P4∕4 eruption or formation. Mubhammys is very similar in dental morphology to Birkamys, and also shows no evidence for P4∕4 formation or eruption, but is considerably larger. Though parsimony analysis with all characters equally weighted places Birkamys and Mubhammys as sister taxa of extant Thryonomys to the exclusion of much younger relatives of that genus, all other methods (standard Bayesian inference, Bayesian “tip-dating,” and parsimony analysis with scaled transitions between “fixed” and polymorphic states) place these species in more basal positions within Hystricognathi, as sister taxa of Oligocene-to-Recent phiomorphs. We also employ tip-dating as a means for estimating the ages of early hystricognath-bearing localities, many of which are not well-constrained by geological, geochronological, or biostratigraphic evidence. By simultaneously taking into account phylogeny, evolutionary rates, and uniform priors that appropriately encompass the range of possible ages for fossil localities, dating of tips in this Bayesian framework allows paleontologists to move beyond vague and assumption-laden “stage of evolution” arguments in biochronology to provide relatively rigorous age assessments of poorly-constrained faunas

  20. Recovery of Graded Response Model Parameters: A Comparison of Marginal Maximum Likelihood and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kieftenbeld, Vincent; Natesan, Prathiba

    2012-01-01

    Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods enable a fully Bayesian approach to parameter estimation of item response models. In this simulation study, the authors compared the recovery of graded response model parameters using marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Gibbs sampling (MCMC) under various latent trait distributions, test lengths, and…