WorldWideScience

Sample records for bayesian heuristic threading

  1. Heuristics as Bayesian inference under extreme priors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parpart, Paula; Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

    2018-05-01

    Simple heuristics are often regarded as tractable decision strategies because they ignore a great deal of information in the input data. One puzzle is why heuristics can outperform full-information models, such as linear regression, which make full use of the available information. These "less-is-more" effects, in which a relatively simpler model outperforms a more complex model, are prevalent throughout cognitive science, and are frequently argued to demonstrate an inherent advantage of simplifying computation or ignoring information. In contrast, we show at the computational level (where algorithmic restrictions are set aside) that it is never optimal to discard information. Through a formal Bayesian analysis, we prove that popular heuristics, such as tallying and take-the-best, are formally equivalent to Bayesian inference under the limit of infinitely strong priors. Varying the strength of the prior yields a continuum of Bayesian models with the heuristics at one end and ordinary regression at the other. Critically, intermediate models perform better across all our simulations, suggesting that down-weighting information with the appropriate prior is preferable to entirely ignoring it. Rather than because of their simplicity, our analyses suggest heuristics perform well because they implement strong priors that approximate the actual structure of the environment. We end by considering how new heuristics could be derived by infinitely strengthening the priors of other Bayesian models. These formal results have implications for work in psychology, machine learning and economics. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Refining a Heuristic for Constructing Bayesian Networks from Structured Arguments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wieten, G.M.; Bex, F.J.; van der Gaag, L.C.; Prakken, H.; Renooij, S.

    2018-01-01

    Recently, a heuristic was proposed for constructing Bayesian networks (BNs) from structured arguments. This heuristic helps domain experts who are accustomed to argumentation to transform their reasoning into a BN and subsequently weigh their case evidence in a probabilistic manner. While the

  3. Heuristically improved Bayesian segmentation of brain MR images ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Heuristically improved Bayesian segmentation of brain MR images. ... or even the most prevalent task in medical image processing is image segmentation. Among them, brain MR images suffer ... show that our algorithm performs well in comparison with the one implemented in SPM. It can be concluded that incorporating ...

  4. Estimation of Post-Test Probabilities by Residents: Bayesian Reasoning versus Heuristics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Stacey; Phang, Sen Han; Schaefer, Jeffrey P.; Ghali, William; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

    2014-01-01

    Although the process of diagnosing invariably begins with a heuristic, we encourage our learners to support their diagnoses by analytical cognitive processes, such as Bayesian reasoning, in an attempt to mitigate the effects of heuristics on diagnosing. There are, however, limited data on the use ± impact of Bayesian reasoning on the accuracy of…

  5. Artificial Intelligence: Bayesian versus Heuristic Method for Diagnostic Decision Support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elkin, Peter L; Schlegel, Daniel R; Anderson, Michael; Komm, Jordan; Ficheur, Gregoire; Bisson, Leslie

    2018-04-01

    Evoking strength is one of the important contributions of the field of Biomedical Informatics to the discipline of Artificial Intelligence. The University at Buffalo's Orthopedics Department wanted to create an expert system to assist patients with self-diagnosis of knee problems and to thereby facilitate referral to the right orthopedic subspecialist. They had two independent sports medicine physicians review 469 cases. A board-certified orthopedic sports medicine practitioner, L.B., reviewed any disagreements until a gold standard diagnosis was reached. For each case, the patients entered 126 potential answers to 26 questions into a Web interface. These were modeled by an expert sports medicine physician and the answers were reviewed by L.B. For each finding, the clinician specified the sensitivity (term frequency) and both specificity (Sp) and the heuristic evoking strength (ES). Heuristics are methods of reasoning with only partial evidence. An expert system was constructed that reflected the posttest odds of disease-ranked list for each case. We compare the accuracy of using Sp to that of using ES (original model, p  < 0.0008; term importance * disease importance [DItimesTI] model, p  < 0.0001: Wilcoxon ranked sum test). For patient referral assignment, Sp in the DItimesTI model was superior to the use of ES. By the fifth diagnosis, the advantage was lost and so there is no difference between the techniques when serving as a reminder system. Schattauer GmbH Stuttgart.

  6. Estimation of post-test probabilities by residents: Bayesian reasoning versus heuristics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Stacey; Phang, Sen Han; Schaefer, Jeffrey P; Ghali, William; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

    2014-08-01

    Although the process of diagnosing invariably begins with a heuristic, we encourage our learners to support their diagnoses by analytical cognitive processes, such as Bayesian reasoning, in an attempt to mitigate the effects of heuristics on diagnosing. There are, however, limited data on the use ± impact of Bayesian reasoning on the accuracy of disease probability estimates. In this study our objective was to explore whether Internal Medicine residents use a Bayesian process to estimate disease probabilities by comparing their disease probability estimates to literature-derived Bayesian post-test probabilities. We gave 35 Internal Medicine residents four clinical vignettes in the form of a referral letter and asked them to estimate the post-test probability of the target condition in each case. We then compared these to literature-derived probabilities. For each vignette the estimated probability was significantly different from the literature-derived probability. For the two cases with low literature-derived probability our participants significantly overestimated the probability of these target conditions being the correct diagnosis, whereas for the two cases with high literature-derived probability the estimated probability was significantly lower than the calculated value. Our results suggest that residents generate inaccurate post-test probability estimates. Possible explanations for this include ineffective application of Bayesian reasoning, attribute substitution whereby a complex cognitive task is replaced by an easier one (e.g., a heuristic), or systematic rater bias, such as central tendency bias. Further studies are needed to identify the reasons for inaccuracy of disease probability estimates and to explore ways of improving accuracy.

  7. Heuristic algorithms for feature selection under Bayesian models with block-diagonal covariance structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foroughi Pour, Ali; Dalton, Lori A

    2018-03-21

    Many bioinformatics studies aim to identify markers, or features, that can be used to discriminate between distinct groups. In problems where strong individual markers are not available, or where interactions between gene products are of primary interest, it may be necessary to consider combinations of features as a marker family. To this end, recent work proposes a hierarchical Bayesian framework for feature selection that places a prior on the set of features we wish to select and on the label-conditioned feature distribution. While an analytical posterior under Gaussian models with block covariance structures is available, the optimal feature selection algorithm for this model remains intractable since it requires evaluating the posterior over the space of all possible covariance block structures and feature-block assignments. To address this computational barrier, in prior work we proposed a simple suboptimal algorithm, 2MNC-Robust, with robust performance across the space of block structures. Here, we present three new heuristic feature selection algorithms. The proposed algorithms outperform 2MNC-Robust and many other popular feature selection algorithms on synthetic data. In addition, enrichment analysis on real breast cancer, colon cancer, and Leukemia data indicates they also output many of the genes and pathways linked to the cancers under study. Bayesian feature selection is a promising framework for small-sample high-dimensional data, in particular biomarker discovery applications. When applied to cancer data these algorithms outputted many genes already shown to be involved in cancer as well as potentially new biomarkers. Furthermore, one of the proposed algorithms, SPM, outputs blocks of heavily correlated genes, particularly useful for studying gene interactions and gene networks.

  8. A species-level phylogeny of all extant and late Quaternary extinct mammals using a novel heuristic-hierarchical Bayesian approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faurby, Søren; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2015-03-01

    Across large clades, two problems are generally encountered in the estimation of species-level phylogenies: (a) the number of taxa involved is generally so high that computation-intensive approaches cannot readily be utilized and (b) even for clades that have received intense study (e.g., mammals), attention has been centered on relatively few selected species, and most taxa must therefore be positioned on the basis of very limited genetic data. Here, we describe a new heuristic-hierarchical Bayesian approach and use it to construct a species-level phylogeny for all extant and late Quaternary extinct mammals. In this approach, species with large quantities of genetic data are placed nearly freely in the mammalian phylogeny according to these data, whereas the placement of species with lower quantities of data is performed with steadily stricter restrictions for decreasing data quantities. The advantages of the proposed method include (a) an improved ability to incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty in downstream analyses based on the resulting phylogeny, (b) a reduced potential for long-branch attraction or other types of errors that place low-data taxa far from their true position, while maintaining minimal restrictions for better-studied taxa, and (c) likely improved placement of low-data taxa due to the use of closer outgroups. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sen Phang

    2015-12-01

    Conclusions: Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing.

  10. Probabilistic thread algebra

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergstra, J.A.; Middelburg, C.A.

    2015-01-01

    We add probabilistic features to basic thread algebra and its extensions with thread-service interaction and strategic interleaving. Here, threads represent the behaviours produced by instruction sequences under execution and services represent the behaviours exhibited by the components of execution

  11. Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability

    OpenAIRE

    Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

    2015-01-01

    Background: Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. Method: We randomized 55 In...

  12. Mobile Thread Task Manager

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clement, Bradley J.; Estlin, Tara A.; Bornstein, Benjamin J.

    2013-01-01

    The Mobile Thread Task Manager (MTTM) is being applied to parallelizing existing flight software to understand the benefits and to develop new techniques and architectural concepts for adapting software to multicore architectures. It allocates and load-balances tasks for a group of threads that migrate across processors to improve cache performance. In order to balance-load across threads, the MTTM augments a basic map-reduce strategy to draw jobs from a global queue. In a multicore processor, memory may be "homed" to the cache of a specific processor and must be accessed from that processor. The MTTB architecture wraps access to data with thread management to move threads to the home processor for that data so that the computation follows the data in an attempt to avoid L2 cache misses. Cache homing is also handled by a memory manager that translates identifiers to processor IDs where the data will be homed (according to rules defined by the user). The user can also specify the number of threads and processors separately, which is important for tuning performance for different patterns of computation and memory access. MTTM efficiently processes tasks in parallel on a multiprocessor computer. It also provides an interface to make it easier to adapt existing software to a multiprocessor environment.

  13. Heuristic reasoning

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    How can we advance knowledge? Which methods do we need in order to make new discoveries? How can we rationally evaluate, reconstruct and offer discoveries as a means of improving the ‘method’ of discovery itself? And how can we use findings about scientific discovery to boost funding policies, thus fostering a deeper impact of scientific discovery itself? The respective chapters in this book provide readers with answers to these questions. They focus on a set of issues that are essential to the development of types of reasoning for advancing knowledge, such as models for both revolutionary findings and paradigm shifts; ways of rationally addressing scientific disagreement, e.g. when a revolutionary discovery sparks considerable disagreement inside the scientific community; frameworks for both discovery and inference methods; and heuristics for economics and the social sciences.

  14. Dedicated memory structure holding data for detecting available worker thread(s) and informing available worker thread(s) of task(s) to execute

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiu, George L.; Eichenberger, Alexandre E.; O' Brien, John K. P.

    2016-12-13

    The present disclosure relates generally to a dedicated memory structure (that is, hardware device) holding data for detecting available worker thread(s) and informing available worker thread(s) of task(s) to execute.

  15. Modelling cheetah relocation success in southern Africa using an iterative Bayesian network development cycle

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Johnson, S

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available metapopulations was the focus of a Bayesian Network (BN) modelling workshop in South Africa. Using a new heuristics, Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), described in this paper, several networks were formulated to distinguish between the unique...

  16. Characterizing web heuristics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, Menno D.T.; van der Geest, Thea

    2000-01-01

    This article is intended to make Web designers more aware of the qualities of heuristics by presenting a framework for analyzing the characteristics of heuristics. The framework is meant to support Web designers in choosing among alternative heuristics. We hope that better knowledge of the

  17. Internal Medicine residents use heuristics to estimate disease probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phang, Sen Han; Ravani, Pietro; Schaefer, Jeffrey; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

    2015-01-01

    Training in Bayesian reasoning may have limited impact on accuracy of probability estimates. In this study, our goal was to explore whether residents previously exposed to Bayesian reasoning use heuristics rather than Bayesian reasoning to estimate disease probabilities. We predicted that if residents use heuristics then post-test probability estimates would be increased by non-discriminating clinical features or a high anchor for a target condition. We randomized 55 Internal Medicine residents to different versions of four clinical vignettes and asked them to estimate probabilities of target conditions. We manipulated the clinical data for each vignette to be consistent with either 1) using a representative heuristic, by adding non-discriminating prototypical clinical features of the target condition, or 2) using anchoring with adjustment heuristic, by providing a high or low anchor for the target condition. When presented with additional non-discriminating data the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased (odds ratio (OR) 2.83, 95% confidence interval [1.30, 6.15], p = 0.009). Similarly, the odds of diagnosing the target condition were increased when a high anchor preceded the vignette (OR 2.04, [1.09, 3.81], p = 0.025). Our findings suggest that despite previous exposure to the use of Bayesian reasoning, residents use heuristics, such as the representative heuristic and anchoring with adjustment, to estimate probabilities. Potential reasons for attribute substitution include the relative cognitive ease of heuristics vs. Bayesian reasoning or perhaps residents in their clinical practice use gist traces rather than precise probability estimates when diagnosing.

  18. Bolt Thread Stress Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Leergaard

    2012-01-01

    of threads and therefore indirectly the bolt fatigue life. The root shape is circular, and from shape optimization for minimum stress concentration it is well known that the circular shape is seldom optimal. An axisymmetric Finite Element (FE) formulation is used to analyze the bolted connection, and a study...... is performed to establish the need for contact modeling with regard to finding the correct stress concentration factor. Optimization is performed with a simple parameterization with two design variables. Stress reduction of up to 9% is found in the optimization process, and some similarities are found...... in the optimized designs leading to the proposal of a new standard. The reductions in the stress are achieved by rather simple changes made to the cutting tool....

  19. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre; C. R. Martins

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  20. On the Importance of Elimination Heuristics in Lazy Propagation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Anders Læsø; Butz, Cory J.

    2012-01-01

    elimination orders on-line. This paper considers the importance of elimination heuristics in LP when using Variable Elimination (VE) as the message and single marginal computation algorithm. It considers well-known cost measures for selecting the next variable to eliminate and a new cost measure....... The empirical evaluation examines dierent heuristics as well as sequences of cost measures, and was conducted on real-world and randomly generated Bayesian networks. The results show that for most cases performance is robust relative to the cost measure used and in some cases the elimination heuristic can have...

  1. Heuristic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gigerenzer, Gerd; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.

  2. Genetic algorithms for protein threading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadgari, J; Amir, A; Unger, R

    1998-01-01

    Despite many years of efforts, a direct prediction of protein structure from sequence is still not possible. As a result, in the last few years researchers have started to address the "inverse folding problem": Identifying and aligning a sequence to the fold with which it is most compatible, a process known as "threading". In two meetings in which protein folding predictions were objectively evaluated, it became clear that threading as a concept promises a real breakthrough, but that much improvement is still needed in the technique itself. Threading is a NP-hard problem, and thus no general polynomial solution can be expected. Still a practical approach with demonstrated ability to find optimal solutions in many cases, and acceptable solutions in other cases, is needed. We applied the technique of Genetic Algorithms in order to significantly improve the ability of threading algorithms to find the optimal alignment of a sequence to a structure, i.e. the alignment with the minimum free energy. A major progress reported here is the design of a representation of the threading alignment as a string of fixed length. With this representation validation of alignments and genetic operators are effectively implemented. Appropriate data structure and parameters have been selected. It is shown that Genetic Algorithm threading is effective and is able to find the optimal alignment in a few test cases. Furthermore, the described algorithm is shown to perform well even without pre-definition of core elements. Existing threading methods are dependent on such constraints to make their calculations feasible. But the concept of core elements is inherently arbitrary and should be avoided if possible. While a rigorous proof is hard to submit yet an, we present indications that indeed Genetic Algorithm threading is capable of finding consistently good solutions of full alignments in search spaces of size up to 10(70).

  3. HEURISTICS IN DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I PUTU SUDANA

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Prinsip heuristics tidak dapat dikatakan sebagai sebuah pendekatanpengambilan keputusan yang non-rasional, karena penerapan atau penggunaanyang unconscious atau subtle mind tidak dapat dianggap sebagai tindakanyang irrational. Dengan alasan tersebut, terdapat cukup alasan untukmenyatakan bahwa pengklasifikasian pendekatan-pendekatan keputusansemestinya menggunakan terminologi analytical dan experiential, dan bukanmemakai istilah rational dan non-rational seperti yang umumnya diikuti.Penerapan pendekatan heuristics dapat ditemukan pada berbagai disiplin,termasuk bisnis dan akuntansi. Topik heuristics semestinya mendapatperhatian yang cukup luas dari para periset di bidang akuntansi. Bidangbehavioral research in accounting menawarkan banyak kemungkinan untukdikaji, karena prinsip heuristics bertautan erat dengan aspek manusia sebagaipelaku dalam pengambilan keputusan.

  4. When decision heuristics and science collide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Erica C; Sprenger, Amber M; Thomas, Rick P; Dougherty, Michael R

    2014-04-01

    The ongoing discussion among scientists about null-hypothesis significance testing and Bayesian data analysis has led to speculation about the practices and consequences of "researcher degrees of freedom." This article advances this debate by asking the broader questions that we, as scientists, should be asking: How do scientists make decisions in the course of doing research, and what is the impact of these decisions on scientific conclusions? We asked practicing scientists to collect data in a simulated research environment, and our findings show that some scientists use data collection heuristics that deviate from prescribed methodology. Monte Carlo simulations show that data collection heuristics based on p values lead to biases in estimated effect sizes and Bayes factors and to increases in both false-positive and false-negative rates, depending on the specific heuristic. We also show that using Bayesian data collection methods does not eliminate these biases. Thus, our study highlights the little appreciated fact that the process of doing science is a behavioral endeavor that can bias statistical description and inference in a manner that transcends adherence to any particular statistical framework.

  5. Optimization of bolt thread stress concentrations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Leergaard

    2013-01-01

    Designs of threaded fasteners are controlled by different standards, and the number of different thread definitions is large. The most commonly used thread is probably the metric ISO thread, and this design is therefore used in the present paper. Thread root design controls the stress concentration...... are found in the optimized designs leading to the proposal of a new standard. The reductions in the stress are achieved by rather simple changes made to the cutting tool....

  6. Pitfalls in Teaching Judgment Heuristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepperd, James A.; Koch, Erika J.

    2005-01-01

    Demonstrations of judgment heuristics typically focus on how heuristics can lead to poor judgments. However, exclusive focus on the negative consequences of heuristics can prove problematic. We illustrate the problem with the representativeness heuristic and present a study (N = 45) that examined how examples influence understanding of the…

  7. An integral heuristic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kauffman, L.H.

    1990-01-01

    This paper gives a heuristic derivation of the skein relation for the Homfly polynomial in an integral formalism. The derivation is formally correct but highly simplified. In the light of Witten's proposal for invariants of links via functional integrals, it is useful to have a formal pattern to compare with the complexities of the full approach. The formalism is a heuristic. However, it is closely related to the actual structure of the Witten functional integral

  8. Thread Structure: Rewriting the Hollywood Formula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Evan

    2000-01-01

    Describes a new nonlinear model that has crept into Hollywood's cinematic repertoire in which multiple story threads comprise the story. Examines how this thread structure differs from ensemble stories. Examines differences between traditionally linear films and films with thread structure regarding character roles and viewer orientation, shifts…

  9. Real-time inextensible surgical thread simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lang; Liu, Qian

    2018-03-27

    This paper discusses a real-time simulation method of inextensible surgical thread based on the Cosserat rod theory using position-based dynamics (PBD). The method realizes stable twining and knotting of surgical thread while including inextensibility, bending, twisting and coupling effects. The Cosserat rod theory is used to model the nonlinear elastic behavior of surgical thread. The surgical thread model is solved with PBD to achieve a real-time, extremely stable simulation. Due to the one-dimensional linear structure of surgical thread, the direct solution of the distance constraint based on tridiagonal matrix algorithm is used to enhance stretching resistance in every constraint projection iteration. In addition, continuous collision detection and collision response guarantee a large time step and high performance. Furthermore, friction is integrated into the constraint projection process to stabilize the twining of multiple threads and complex contact situations. Through comparisons with existing methods, the surgical thread maintains constant length under large deformation after applying the direct distance constraint in our method. The twining and knotting of multiple threads correspond to stable solutions to contact and friction forces. A surgical suture scene is also modeled to demonstrate the practicality and simplicity of our method. Our method achieves stable and fast simulation of inextensible surgical thread. Benefiting from the unified particle framework, the rigid body, elastic rod, and soft body can be simultaneously simulated. The method is appropriate for applications in virtual surgery that require multiple dynamic bodies.

  10. Heuristic decision making in medicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marewski, Julian N.; Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2012-01-01

    Can less information be more helpful when it comes to making medical decisions? Contrary to the common intuition that more information is always better, the use of heuristics can help both physicians and patients to make sound decisions. Heuristics are simple decision strategies that ignore part of the available information, basing decisions on only a few relevant predictors. We discuss: (i) how doctors and patients use heuristics; and (ii) when heuristics outperform information-greedy methods, such as regressions in medical diagnosis. Furthermore, we outline those features of heuristics that make them useful in health care settings. These features include their surprising accuracy, transparency, and wide accessibility, as well as the low costs and little time required to employ them. We close by explaining one of the statistical reasons why heuristics are accurate, and by pointing to psychiatry as one area for future research on heuristics in health care. PMID:22577307

  11. Heuristic decision making in medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marewski, Julian N; Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2012-03-01

    Can less information be more helpful when it comes to making medical decisions? Contrary to the common intuition that more information is always better, the use of heuristics can help both physicians and patients to make sound decisions. Heuristics are simple decision strategies that ignore part of the available information, basing decisions on only a few relevant predictors. We discuss: (i) how doctors and patients use heuristics; and (ii) when heuristics outperform information-greedy methods, such as regressions in medical diagnosis. Furthermore, we outline those features of heuristics that make them useful in health care settings. These features include their surprising accuracy, transparency, and wide accessibility, as well as the low costs and little time required to employ them. We close by explaining one of the statistical reasons why heuristics are accurate, and by pointing to psychiatry as one area for future research on heuristics in health care.

  12. Bayesian biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Lesaffre, Emmanuel

    2012-01-01

    The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd

  13. Heuristics in Conflict Resolution

    OpenAIRE

    Drescher, Christian; Gebser, Martin; Kaufmann, Benjamin; Schaub, Torsten

    2010-01-01

    Modern solvers for Boolean Satisfiability (SAT) and Answer Set Programming (ASP) are based on sophisticated Boolean constraint solving techniques. In both areas, conflict-driven learning and related techniques constitute key features whose application is enabled by conflict analysis. Although various conflict analysis schemes have been proposed, implemented, and studied both theoretically and practically in the SAT area, the heuristic aspects involved in conflict analysis have not yet receive...

  14. Bayesian Utilitarianism

    OpenAIRE

    ZHOU, Lin

    1996-01-01

    In this paper I consider social choices under uncertainty. I prove that any social choice rule that satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives, translation invariance, and weak anonymity is consistent with ex post Bayesian utilitarianism

  15. Hair-Thread Tourniquet Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emre Gokcen

    2016-01-01

    Two month-old male infant was brought to the emergency service with the complaint of fever, uneasiness, and swelling on 4th-5th toes of right foot.  Apparent swelling, rubescence and increase in heat were seen and a constrictive band was observed to surround proximal phalanges of both toes in the physical examination of the patient (Figure 1.  A hair was found on the constrictive band surrounding both toes. The hair was removed by means of forceps. Oral antibiotic was administered to the patient. The patient was treated successfully by not letting a necrosis develop on the toes. It should be remembered that hair-thread tourniquet syndrome may be observed in the infant patients applying to the hospital with the complaints of unexplained fever and uneasiness. Figure 1: Appearance of the toes right after the hair was removed. Arrows show the constrictive band. 

  16. Hierarchical resilience with lightweight threads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wheeler, Kyle Bruce

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes methodology for providing robustness and resilience for a highly threaded distributed- and shared-memory environment based on well-defined inputs and outputs to lightweight tasks. These inputs and outputs form a failure 'barrier', allowing tasks to be restarted or duplicated as necessary. These barriers must be expanded based on task behavior, such as communication between tasks, but do not prohibit any given behavior. One of the trends in high-performance computing codes seems to be a trend toward self-contained functions that mimic functional programming. Software designers are trending toward a model of software design where their core functions are specified in side-effect free or low-side-effect ways, wherein the inputs and outputs of the functions are well-defined. This provides the ability to copy the inputs to wherever they need to be - whether that's the other side of the PCI bus or the other side of the network - do work on that input using local memory, and then copy the outputs back (as needed). This design pattern is popular among new distributed threading environment designs. Such designs include the Barcelona STARS system, distributed OpenMP systems, the Habanero-C and Habanero-Java systems from Vivek Sarkar at Rice University, the HPX/ParalleX model from LSU, as well as our own Scalable Parallel Runtime effort (SPR) and the Trilinos stateless kernels. This design pattern is also shared by CUDA and several OpenMP extensions for GPU-type accelerators (e.g. the PGI OpenMP extensions).

  17. Visual thread quality for precision miniature mechanisms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gillespie, L.K.

    1981-04-01

    Threaded features have eight visual appearance factors which can affect their function in precision miniature mechanisms. The Bendix practice in deburring, finishing, and accepting these conditions on miniature threads is described as is their impact in assemblies of precision miniature electromechanical assemblies.

  18. Thread-Skip: An Undefined Common Observation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermott, Peter; Allan, William DE

    When a screw-retained implant prosthesis is removed, a click is heard and a slight axial shift is felt, indicating the screw has been fully removed from the retaining thread. This common observation has never been described in the literature. This article describes the click, and it is proposed it be termed thread-skip.

  19. Heuristics for Multidimensional Packing Problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Egeblad, Jens

    for a minimum height container required for the items. The main contributions of the thesis are three new heuristics for strip-packing and knapsack packing problems where items are both rectangular and irregular. In the two first papers we describe a heuristic for the multidimensional strip-packing problem...... that is based on a relaxed placement principle. The heuristic starts with a random overlapping placement of items and large container dimensions. From the overlapping placement overlap is reduced iteratively until a non-overlapping placement is found and a new problem is solved with a smaller container size...... of this heuristic are among the best published in the literature both for two- and three-dimensional strip-packing problems for irregular shapes. In the third paper, we introduce a heuristic for two- and three-dimensional rectangular knapsack packing problems. The two-dimensional heuristic uses the sequence pair...

  20. A Tutorial on Heuristic Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui; Werra, D. de; Silver, E.

    1980-01-01

    In this paper we define a heuristic method as a procedure for solving a well-defined mathematical problem by an intuitive approach in which the structure of the problem can be interpreted and exploited intelligently to obtain a reasonable solution. Issues discussed include: (i) the measurement...... of the quality of a heuristic method, (ii) different types of heuristic procedures, (iii) the interactive role of human beings and (iv) factors that may influence the choice or testing of heuristic methods. A large number of references are included....

  1. The Advanced Thread-Locking Mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Wolfgang

    2005-12-01

    Locking of threaded members is accomplished by a wide variety of engineering solutions. Generally, in terms of separate locking devices or by built-in locking features such as friction generating means.In regard of space flight vehicles, threaded joints are subject to severe vibration loads during launch, maneuvering, and reentry. This requires fastening systems which are capable to join structural members and attach accessories or equipment in a secure manner. However, manned spacecraft and especially payload components will be subject to installation activity during orbital or interstellar flight maintenance, repair, or mission modification. This, in turn, requires fast separation and engaging of the concerned fasteners, yet providing performance characteristics for high reliable and safe joints.The further described Advanced Thread Locking Mechanism (ATLM) has been developed to combine the merits of both, safe joining technique and a fast installation process. The ATLM uses a freewheel which is securely installed in one part of the threaded member and releasable coupled with the engaged counterpart. While screwing the threaded members together, once coupled, the freewheel will allow free mating of the threaded members including torquing to the desired value. The moment, the pair of threaded fasteners is forced to unscrew (by intended or unintended occurrence of torque in the undoing direction) the freewheel does lock instantly. Disengaging the coupling between the members of the threaded joint takes a separate release action.Owing to the nature of the ATLM, there are a number of design variants ready for implementation.Threaded fasteners in ATLM design are highly recommended for mechanical joints subject to fastening and unfastening during Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) in course of space flight operations. This is justified through:1. Threaded members mate free running, thus, torque values preset at the wrenching tool are not influenced by varying prevailing

  2. The helical tomotherapy thread effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kissick, M.W.; Fenwick, J.; James, J.A.; Jeraj, R.; Kapatoes, J.M.; Keller, H.; Mackie, T.R.; Olivera, G.; Soisson, E.T.

    2005-01-01

    Inherent to helical tomotherapy is a dose variation pattern that manifests as a 'ripple' (peak-to-trough relative to the average). This ripple is the result of helical beam junctioning, completely unique to helical tomotherapy. Pitch is defined as in helical CT, the couch travel distance for a complete gantry rotation relative to the axial beam width at the axis of rotation. Without scattering or beam divergence, an analytical posing of the problem as a simple integral predicts minima near a pitch of 1/n where n is an integer. A convolution-superposition dose calculator (TomoTherapy, Inc.) included all the physics needed to explore the ripple magnitude versus pitch and beam width. The results of the dose calculator and some benchmark measurements demonstrate that the ripple has sharp minima near p=0.86(1/n). The 0.86 factor is empirical and caused by a beam junctioning of the off-axis dose profiles which differ from the axial profiles as well as a long scatter tail of the profiles at depth. For very strong intensity modulation, the 0.86 factor may vary. The authors propose choosing particular minima pitches or using a second delivery that starts 180 deg off-phase from the first to reduce these ripples: 'Double threading'. For current typical pitches and beam widths, however, this effect is small and not clinically important for most situations. Certain extremely large field or high pitch cases, however, may benefit from mitigation of this effect

  3. Heuristics Reasoning in Diagnostic Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Eileen S.

    1995-01-01

    Describes three heuristics--short-cut mental strategies that streamline information--relevant to diagnostic reasoning: accessibility, similarity, and anchoring and adjustment. Analyzes factors thought to influence heuristic reasoning and presents interventions to be tested for nursing practice and education. (JOW)

  4. Reexamining Our Bias against Heuristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Kevin; Eva, Kevin W.; Norman, Geoff R.

    2014-01-01

    Using heuristics offers several cognitive advantages, such as increased speed and reduced effort when making decisions, in addition to allowing us to make decision in situations where missing data do not allow for formal reasoning. But the traditional view of heuristics is that they trade accuracy for efficiency. Here the authors discuss sources…

  5. HEURISTIC APPROACHES FOR PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION

    OpenAIRE

    Manfred Gilli, Evis Kellezi

    2000-01-01

    The paper first compares the use of optimization heuristics to the classical optimization techniques for the selection of optimal portfolios. Second, the heuristic approach is applied to problems other than those in the standard mean-variance framework where the classical optimization fails.

  6. heuristically improved bayesian segmentation of brain mr images

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Brainweb as a simulated brain MRI dataset is used in evaluating the proposed algorithm. ..... neighboring system can improve the segmentation power of the algorithm. ... tuning and learning of fuzzy knowledge bases, World Scientific. Pub Co ...

  7. Optically variable threads and polarization effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kretschmar, Friedrich; Burchard, Theodor; Heim, Manfred

    2006-02-01

    Based on common criteria for efficient security elements for banknotes the set-up of a state-of-the-art holographic security thread is described - as first representative of window embedded OVD. We continue with new colour-shifting OVD-threads - based on physical vapour deposition thin-film and liquid crystal technology. These three then form the family of optically variable threads following the same set of requirements for efficiency, durability, service to all authentication levels and economics. In addition to this set of OVD threads we introduce how liquid crystal based phase retarding layer can be used to install new authentication channels for the public use up-to machine authentication. Also we show the perspective how those development can be used to install similar sets of OVD families of foil elements on banknotes.

  8. Conversation Threads Hidden within Email Server Logs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palus, Sebastian; Kazienko, Przemysław

    Email server logs contain records of all email Exchange through this server. Often we would like to analyze those emails not separately but in conversation thread, especially when we need to analyze social network extracted from those email logs. Unfortunately each mail is in different record and those record are not tided to each other in any obvious way. In this paper method for discussion threads extraction was proposed together with experiments on two different data sets - Enron and WrUT..

  9. Loading and Contact Stress Analysis on the Thread Teeth in Tubing and Casing Premium Threaded Connection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Honglin Xu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Loading and contact stress distribution on the thread teeth in tubing and casing premium threaded connections are of great importance for design optimization, pretightening force control, and thread failure prevention. This paper proposes an analytical method based on the elastic mechanics. This is quite different from other papers, which mainly rely on finite element analysis. The differential equation of load distribution on the thread teeth was established according to equal pitch of the engaged thread after deformation and solved by finite difference method. Furthermore, the relation between load acting on each engaged thread and mean contact stress on its load flank is set up based on the geometric description of thread surface. By comparison, this new analytical method with the finite element analysis for a modified API 177.8 mm premium threaded connection is approved. Comparison of the contact stress on the last engaged thread between analytical model and FEM shows that the accuracy of analytical model will decline with the increase of pretightening force after the material enters into plastic deformation. However, the analytical method can meet the needs of engineering to some extent because its relative error is about 6.2%~18.1% for the in-service level of pretightening force.

  10. Cribellate thread production in spiders: Complex processing of nano-fibres into a functional capture thread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joel, Anna-Christin; Kappel, Peter; Adamova, Hana; Baumgartner, Werner; Scholz, Ingo

    2015-11-01

    Spider silk production has been studied intensively in the last years. However, capture threads of cribellate spiders employ an until now often unnoticed alternative of thread production. This thread in general is highly interesting, as it not only involves a controlled arrangement of three types of threads with one being nano-scale fibres (cribellate fibres), but also a special comb-like structure on the metatarsus of the fourth leg (calamistrum) for its production. We found the cribellate fibres organized as a mat, enclosing two parallel larger fibres (axial fibres) and forming the typical puffy structure of cribellate threads. Mat and axial fibres are punctiform connected to each other between two puffs, presumably by the action of the median spinnerets. However, this connection alone does not lead to the typical puffy shape of a cribellate thread. Removing the calamistrum, we found a functional capture thread still being produced, but the puffy shape of the thread was lost. Therefore, the calamistrum is not necessary for the extraction or combination of fibres, but for further processing of the nano-scale cribellate fibres. Using data from Uloborus plumipes we were able to develop a model of the cribellate thread production, probably universally valid for cribellate spiders. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Paranoid thinking as a heuristic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preti, Antonio; Cella, Matteo

    2010-08-01

    Paranoid thinking can be viewed as a human heuristic used by individuals to deal with uncertainty during stressful situations. Under stress, individuals are likely to emphasize the threatening value of neutral stimuli and increase the reliance on paranoia-based heuristic to interpreter events and guide their decisions. Paranoid thinking can also be activated by stress arising from the possibility of losing a good opportunity; this may result in an abnormal allocation of attentional resources to social agents. A better understanding of the interplay between cognitive heuristics and emotional processes may help to detect situations in which paranoid thinking is likely to exacerbate and improve intervention for individuals with delusional disorders.

  12. Structural Sustainability - Heuristic Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostański, Krzysztof

    2017-10-01

    Nowadays, we are faced with a challenge of having to join building structures with elements of nature, which seems to be the paradigm of modern planning and design. The questions arise, however, with reference to the following categories: the leading idea, the relation between elements of nature and buildings, the features of a structure combining such elements and, finally, our perception of this structure. If we consider both the overwhelming globalization and our attempts to preserve local values, the only reasonable solution is to develop naturalistic greenery. It can add its uniqueness to any building and to any developed area. Our holistic model, presented in this paper, contains the above mentioned categories within the scope of naturalism. The model is divided into principles, actions related, and possible effects to be obtained. It provides a useful tool for determining the ways and priorities of our design. Although it is not possible to consider all possible actions and solutions in order to support sustainability in any particular design, we can choose, however, a proper mode for our design according to the local conditions by turning to the heuristic method, which helps to choose priorities and targets. Our approach is an attempt to follow the ways of nature as in the natural environment it is optimal solutions that appear and survive, idealism being the domain of mankind only. We try to describe various natural processes in a manner comprehensible to us, which is always a generalization. Such definitions, however, called artificial by naturalists, are presented as art or the current state of knowledge by artists and engineers. Reality, in fact, is always more complicated than its definitions. The heuristic method demonstrates the way how to optimize our design. It requires that all possible information about the local environment should be gathered, as the more is known, the fewer mistakes are made. Following the unquestionable principles, we can

  13. Heuristic introduction to gravitational waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandberg, V.D.

    1982-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to provide a rough and somewhat heuristic theoretical background and introduction to gravitational radiation, its generation, and its detection based on Einstein's general theory of relativity

  14. Heuristic reasoning and relative incompleteness

    OpenAIRE

    Treur, J.

    1993-01-01

    In this paper an approach is presented in which heuristic reasoning is interpreted as strategic reasoning. This type of reasoning enables one to derive which hypothesis to investigate, and which observable information to acquire next (to be able to verify the chosen hypothesis). A compositional architecture for reasoning systems that perform such heuristic reasoning is introduced, called SIX (for Strategic Interactive eXpert systems). This compositional architecture enables user interaction a...

  15. Missing IUD Despite Threads at the Cervix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew L. Atkinson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Today, the intrauterine device (IUD is by far the most popular form of long term reversible contraception in the world. Side effects from the IUD are minimal and complications are rare. Uterine perforation and migration of the IUD outside the uterine cavity are the most serious complications. Physician visualization and/or the patient feeling retrieval threads at the cervical os are confirmation that the IUD has not been expelled or migrated. We present a case of a perforated, intraperitoneal IUD with threads noted at the cervical os. Office removal was not possible using gentle traction on the threads. Multiple imaging and endoscopic modalities were used to try and locate the IUD including pelvic ultrasound, diagnostic hysteroscopy, cystoscopy, and pelvic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI. The studies gave conflicting results on location of the IUD. Ultimately, the missing IUD was removed via laparoscopy.

  16. Environmentally acceptable thread compounds: Requirements defined

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stringfellow, W.D.; Hendriks, R.V.; Jacobs, N.L.

    1993-01-01

    New environmental regulations on thread compounds are now being enforced in several areas with strong maritime tradition and a sensitive environment. These areas include Indonesia, Alaska and portions of Norway. The industry generally recognizes the environmental concerns but, with wider enforcement of regulations imminent, has not been able to define clearly the requirements for environmental compliance. This paper, written in collaboration with The Netherlands State Supervision of Mines, is based on the National Policy on Thread Compounds of The Netherlands. This national policy is representative of policies being followed by other North Sea governments. Similar policies might well be adopted by other governments worldwide. These policies will affect the operator, drilling contractor, and supplier. This paper provides a specific and detailed definition of thread compound requirements by addressing four relevant categories. The categories of interest are regulatory approval, environmental, health, and performance

  17. Bayesian programming

    CERN Document Server

    Bessiere, Pierre; Ahuactzin, Juan Manuel; Mekhnacha, Kamel

    2013-01-01

    Probability as an Alternative to Boolean LogicWhile logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain DataEmphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean

  18. Heuristic space diversity management in a meta-hyper-heuristic framework

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Grobler, J

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces the concept of heuristic space diversity and investigates various strategies for the management of heuristic space diversity within the context of a meta-hyper-heuristic algorithm. Evaluation on a diverse set of floating...

  19. Heuristic space diversity control for improved meta-hyper-heuristic performance

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Grobler, J

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper expands on the concept of heuristic space diversity and investigates various strategies for the management of heuristic space diversity within the context of a meta-hyper-heuristic algorithm in search of greater performance benefits...

  20. Heuristic errors in clinical reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rylander, Melanie; Guerrasio, Jeannette

    2016-08-01

    Errors in clinical reasoning contribute to patient morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to determine the types of heuristic errors made by third-year medical students and first-year residents. This study surveyed approximately 150 clinical educators inquiring about the types of heuristic errors they observed in third-year medical students and first-year residents. Anchoring and premature closure were the two most common errors observed amongst third-year medical students and first-year residents. There was no difference in the types of errors observed in the two groups. Errors in clinical reasoning contribute to patient morbidity and mortality Clinical educators perceived that both third-year medical students and first-year residents committed similar heuristic errors, implying that additional medical knowledge and clinical experience do not affect the types of heuristic errors made. Further work is needed to help identify methods that can be used to reduce heuristic errors early in a clinician's education. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. A communicating Thread -CT- case study: JIWY

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jovanovic, D.S.; Hilderink, G.H.; Broenink, Johannes F.; Pascoe, P.W.J.; Loader, R.; Sunderman, V.

    2002-01-01

    This JIWY demonstrator is constructed in the context of the development of a design framework and software tools to efficiently support mechatronic engineers in developing sophisticated control computer code out of a set control laws. We use the CSP-based Communicating Threads -CT- library as the

  2. Bayesian Graphical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2016-01-01

    Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes...

  3. CPC: programming with a massive number of lightweight threads

    OpenAIRE

    Kerneis, Gabriel; Chroboczek, Juliusz

    2011-01-01

    To appear in PLACES'11.; International audience; Threads are a convenient and modular abstraction for writing concurrent programs, but often fairly expensive. The standard alternative to threads, event-loop programming, allows much lighter units of concurrency, but leads to code that is difficult to write and even harder to understand. Continuation Passing C (CPC) is a translator that converts a program written in threaded style into a program written with events and native system threads, at...

  4. Heuristic Search Theory and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Edelkamp, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    Search has been vital to artificial intelligence from the very beginning as a core technique in problem solving. The authors present a thorough overview of heuristic search with a balance of discussion between theoretical analysis and efficient implementation and application to real-world problems. Current developments in search such as pattern databases and search with efficient use of external memory and parallel processing units on main boards and graphics cards are detailed. Heuristic search as a problem solving tool is demonstrated in applications for puzzle solving, game playing, constra

  5. Threaded Cognition: An Integrated Theory of Concurrent Multitasking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvucci, Dario D.; Taatgen, Niels A.

    2008-01-01

    The authors propose the idea of threaded cognition, an integrated theory of concurrent multitasking--that is, performing 2 or more tasks at once. Threaded cognition posits that streams of thought can be represented as threads of processing coordinated by a serial procedural resource and executed across other available resources (e.g., perceptual…

  6. Threaded cognition : An integrated theory of concurrent multitasking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salvucci, Dario D.; Taatgen, Niels A.

    The authors propose the idea of threaded cognition, an integrated theory of concurrent multitasking-that is, performing 2 or more tasks at once. Threaded cognition posits that streams of thought can be represented as threads of processing coordinated by a serial procedural resource and executed

  7. The effect of thread pattern upon implant osseointegration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abuhussein, Heba; Pagni, Giorgio; Rebaudi, Alberto; Wang, Hom-Lay

    2010-02-01

    Implant design features such as macro- and micro-design may influence overall implant success. Limited information is currently available. Therefore, it is the purpose of this paper to examine these factors such as thread pitch, thread geometry, helix angle, thread depth and width as well as implant crestal module may affect implant stability. A literature search was conducted using MEDLINE to identify studies, from simulated laboratory models, animal, to human, related to this topic using the keywords of implant thread, implant macrodesign, thread pitch, thread geometry, helix angle, thread depth, thread width and implant crestal module. The results showed how thread geometry affects the distribution of stress forces around the implant. A decreased thread pitch may positively influence implant stability. Excess helix angles in spite of a faster insertion may jeopardize the ability of implants to sustain axial load. Deeper threads seem to have an important effect on the stabilization in poorer bone quality situations. The addition of threads or microthreads up to the crestal module of an implant might provide a potential positive contribution on bone-to to-implant contact as well as on the preservation of marginal bone; nonetheless this remains to be determined. Appraising the current literature on this subject and combining existing data to verify the presence of any association between the selected characteristics may be critical in the achievement of overall implant success.

  8. Two years' outcome of thread lifting with absorbable barbed PDO threads: Innovative score for objective and subjective assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Yasser Helmy

    2018-02-01

    Thread-lifting rejuvenation procedures have evolved again, with the development of absorbable threads. Although they have gained popularity among plastic surgeons and dermatologists, very few articles have been written in literature about absorbable threads. This study aims to evaluate two years' outcome of thread lifting using absorbable barbed threads for facial rejuvenation. Prospective comparative stud both objectively and subjectively and follow-up assessment for 24 months. Thread lifting for face rejuvenation has significant long-lasting effects that include skin lifting from 3-10 mm and high degree of patients' satisfaction with less incidence rate of complications, about 4.8%. Augmented results are obtained when thread lifting is combined with other lifting and rejuvenation modalities. Significant facial rejuvenation is achieved by thread lifting and highly augmented results are observed when they are combined with Botox, fillers, and/or platelet rich plasma (PRP) rejuvenations.

  9. Determination of the Tapping Part Diameter of the Thread Mill

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Dreval'

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, there is a tendency to increase the proportion of thread milling operations, among other ways of tapping, which is associated with increasing number of CNC machines, flexibility and versatility of the process.Developments presently existing in the RF and used in the thread mills deal, mainly, with the thread milling cutter designs, to process internal and external thread with straight flutes made from high-speed steel.The paper presents a technique to calculate and select the initial design parameters, i.e. the external diameter of the tapping part of thread milling cutter, which is chosen as a basic computational design. The analysis of directories of tool companies containing foreign de-signs of solid thread end-milling cutters has shown that most of them rep-resent the thread cutter designs made of solid carbide. There are solid and interlocking side milling cutters, which use a tapping part both as a single-disk and as a multi-disk one; chip flutes are made to be both as direct and as screw; solid designs of cutters are made from carbide with a diameter of up to 20 ... 25 mm; thread cutters can be left- and right-hand cutting; Designs of the combined thread mills are proposed; internal channels are used for coolant supply.It is shown that the purpose of the external diameter of the tapping part of the thread mill should take into account the effect of the thread mill diameter on the milling process performance, precision of thread profile received, taper thread, tool strength, and the volume of flutes.The analysis has shown that when choosing the external diameter of the thread mill it worth taking its maximum diameter to improve the char-acteristics of the process under the restrictions imposed on the accuracy of the formed thread.

  10. Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

    2011-08-01

    The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls

  11. Heuristic Biases in Mathematical Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inglis, Matthew; Simpson, Adrian

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we briefly describe the dual process account of reasoning, and explain the role of heuristic biases in human thought. Concentrating on the so-called matching bias effect, we describe a piece of research that indicates a correlation between success at advanced level mathematics and an ability to override innate and misleading…

  12. Heuristic reasoning and relative incompleteness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Treur, J.

    1993-01-01

    In this paper an approach is presented in which heuristic reasoning is interpreted as strategic reasoning. This type of reasoning enables one to derive which hypothesis to investigate, and which observable information to acquire next (to be able to verify the chosen hypothesis). A compositional

  13. Bayesian phylogeography finds its roots.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Lemey

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available As a key factor in endemic and epidemic dynamics, the geographical distribution of viruses has been frequently interpreted in the light of their genetic histories. Unfortunately, inference of historical dispersal or migration patterns of viruses has mainly been restricted to model-free heuristic approaches that provide little insight into the temporal setting of the spatial dynamics. The introduction of probabilistic models of evolution, however, offers unique opportunities to engage in this statistical endeavor. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, visualization and hypothesis testing of phylogeographic history. By implementing character mapping in a Bayesian software that samples time-scaled phylogenies, we enable the reconstruction of timed viral dispersal patterns while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. Standard Markov model inference is extended with a stochastic search variable selection procedure that identifies the parsimonious descriptions of the diffusion process. In addition, we propose priors that can incorporate geographical sampling distributions or characterize alternative hypotheses about the spatial dynamics. To visualize the spatial and temporal information, we summarize inferences using virtual globe software. We describe how Bayesian phylogeography compares with previous parsimony analysis in the investigation of the influenza A H5N1 origin and H5N1 epidemiological linkage among sampling localities. Analysis of rabies in West African dog populations reveals how virus diffusion may enable endemic maintenance through continuous epidemic cycles. From these analyses, we conclude that our phylogeographic framework will make an important asset in molecular epidemiology that can be easily generalized to infer biogeogeography from genetic data for many organisms.

  14. Use of barbed threads in facial rejuvenation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalra, Rakesh

    2008-10-01

    Use of barbed threads, available with uni- and bi-directional cogs or barbs, is a semi-invasive method of lifting sagging skin of the face. Areas treated with this method include the eyebrows, the cheeks, the jowls and the neck. Ease of use and a shorter down-time have made their use popular. Specific indications, operative procedures, risks and complications are described and some clinical results of the author shown.

  15. Use of barbed threads in facial rejuvenation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalra Rakesh

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Use of barbed threads, available with uni- and bi-directional cogs or barbs, is a semi-invasive method of lifting sagging skin of the face. Areas treated with this method include the eyebrows, the cheeks, the jowls and the neck. Ease of use and a shorter down-time have made their use popular. Specific indications, operative procedures, risks and complications are described and some clinical results of the author shown.

  16. Introduction to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2017-01-01

    There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...

  17. High efficiency carbon nanotube thread antennas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amram Bengio, E.; Senic, Damir; Taylor, Lauren W.; Tsentalovich, Dmitri E.; Chen, Peiyu; Holloway, Christopher L.; Babakhani, Aydin; Long, Christian J.; Novotny, David R.; Booth, James C.; Orloff, Nathan D.; Pasquali, Matteo

    2017-10-01

    Although previous research has explored the underlying theory of high-frequency behavior of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) and CNT bundles for antennas, there is a gap in the literature for direct experimental measurements of radiation efficiency. These measurements are crucial for any practical application of CNT materials in wireless communication. In this letter, we report a measurement technique to accurately characterize the radiation efficiency of λ/4 monopole antennas made from the CNT thread. We measure the highest absolute values of radiation efficiency for CNT antennas of any type, matching that of copper wire. To capture the weight savings, we propose a specific radiation efficiency metric and show that these CNT antennas exceed copper's performance by over an order of magnitude at 1 GHz and 2.4 GHz. We also report direct experimental observation that, contrary to metals, the radiation efficiency of the CNT thread improves significantly at higher frequencies. These results pave the way for practical applications of CNT thread antennas, particularly in the aerospace and wearable electronics industries where weight saving is a priority.

  18. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2010-01-01

    Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

  19. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2003-01-01

    As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.

  20. Familiarity and recollection in heuristic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwikert, Shane R; Curran, Tim

    2014-12-01

    Heuristics involve the ability to utilize memory to make quick judgments by exploiting fundamental cognitive abilities. In the current study we investigated the memory processes that contribute to the recognition heuristic and the fluency heuristic, which are both presumed to capitalize on the byproducts of memory to make quick decisions. In Experiment 1, we used a city-size comparison task while recording event-related potentials (ERPs) to investigate the potential contributions of familiarity and recollection to the 2 heuristics. ERPs were markedly different for recognition heuristic-based decisions and fluency heuristic-based decisions, suggesting a role for familiarity in the recognition heuristic and recollection in the fluency heuristic. In Experiment 2, we coupled the same city-size comparison task with measures of subjective preexperimental memory for each stimulus in the task. Although previous literature suggests the fluency heuristic relies on recognition speed alone, our results suggest differential contributions of recognition speed and recollected knowledge to these decisions, whereas the recognition heuristic relies on familiarity. Based on these results, we created a new theoretical framework that explains decisions attributed to both heuristics based on the underlying memory associated with the choice options. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  1. Bayesian Reasoning Using 3D Relations for Lane Marker Detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boesman, Bart; Jensen, Lars Baunegaard With; Baseski, Emre

    2009-01-01

    We introduce a lane marker detection algorithm that integrates 3D attributes as well as 3D relations between local edges and semi-global contours in a Bayesian framework. The algorithm is parameter free and does not make use of any heuristic assumptions. The reasoning is based on the complete...... to the reconstruction process need to be taken into account to make the reasoning process more stable. The results are shown on a publicly available data set....

  2. Special relativity a heuristic approach

    CERN Document Server

    Hassani, Sadri

    2017-01-01

    Special Relativity: A Heuristic Approach provides a qualitative exposition of relativity theory on the basis of the constancy of the speed of light. Using Einstein's signal velocity as the defining idea for the notion of simultaneity and the fact that the speed of light is independent of the motion of its source, chapters delve into a qualitative exposition of the relativity of time and length, discuss the time dilation formula using the standard light clock, explore the Minkowski four-dimensional space-time distance based on how the time dilation formula is derived, and define the components of the two-dimensional space-time velocity, amongst other topics. Provides a heuristic derivation of the Minkowski distance formula Uses relativistic photography to see Lorentz transformation and vector algebra manipulation in action Includes worked examples to elucidate and complement the topic being discussed Written in a very accessible style

  3. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    This article proposes Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared to conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian mediation analysis, inference is straightforward and exact, which makes it appealing for studies with small samples. Third, the Bayesian approach is conceptua...

  4. Bayesian benefits with JASP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marsman, M.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2017-01-01

    We illustrate the Bayesian approach to data analysis using the newly developed statistical software program JASP. With JASP, researchers are able to take advantage of the benefits that the Bayesian framework has to offer in terms of parameter estimation and hypothesis testing. The Bayesian

  5. APPLICATION PROSPECTS OF THREADED JOINT OF ARMATURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Radkevych

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. One of the main technological operations of buildings construction on the basis of monolithic frame systems is the production of mesh reinforcement. The current interest is the new ways specification of advanced bonding armature techniques without reliability weakness and design of the building in whole, as well as the finding of use prospects of screw-threaded joint of armature as the most technological and economic method of re-bars joints. Methodology. Advantages and disadvantages analysis of existing rebar compound technologies was implemented by couplings of different types and constructions. The most promising vertical constructions for the vertical bars joints in frameworks were determined. Findings. Researches of existing technologies of rebar joints by the couplings of different construction were carried out. The installation method of mesh reinforcement of vertical structural elements with the use of the special catching devices was developed. It allows considerably accelerating installation of mesh reinforcement. Originality. Regularity of labor intensiveness change of mesh reinforcement installation of columns at armature joint in vertical position by threaded couplings with the help of catching devices using special construction was determined. This allows substantially reducing the labor expenditures during installation of these elements. Dependency of labor intensiveness and cost of lap welding armature joints, by tub-seam welding and by thread coupling depending on its diameter was designated. Regularity of labor intensiveness changes of installation at armature joints by different methods taking into account preparatory works was defined. Practical value. The analysis of mechanical armature joints techniques was conducted. It will allow selecting methods of armature joints to increase the speed of construction works more economical and effective.

  6. Pearling Instabilities of a Viscoelastic Thread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deblais, A.; Velikov, K. P.; Bonn, D.

    2018-05-01

    Pearling instabilities of slender viscoelastic threads have received much attention, but remain incompletely understood. We study the instabilities in polymer solutions subject to uniaxial elongational flow. Two distinctly different instabilites are observed: beads on a string and blistering. The beads-on-a-string structure arises from a capillary instability whereas the blistering instability has a different origin: it is due to a coupling between stress and polymer concentration. By varying the temperature to change the solution properties we elucidate the interplay between flow and phase separation.

  7. Gold thread implantation promotes hair growth in human and mice

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Jong-Hwan; Cho, Eun-Young; Kwon, Euna; Kim, Woo-Ho; Park, Jin-Sung; Lee, Yong-Soon; Yun, Jun-Won; Kang, Byeong-Cheol

    2017-01-01

    Thread-embedding therapy has been widely applied for cosmetic purposes such as wrinkle reduction and skin tightening. Particularly, gold thread was reported to support connective tissue regeneration, but, its role in hair biology remains largely unknown due to lack of investigation. When we implanted gold thread and Happy Lift™ in human patient for facial lifting, we unexpectedly found an increase of hair regrowth in spite of no use of hair growth medications. When embedded into the depilated...

  8. Protein Structure Prediction by Protein Threading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Ying; Liu, Zhijie; Cai, Liming; Xu, Dong

    The seminal work of Bowie, Lüthy, and Eisenberg (Bowie et al., 1991) on "the inverse protein folding problem" laid the foundation of protein structure prediction by protein threading. By using simple measures for fitness of different amino acid types to local structural environments defined in terms of solvent accessibility and protein secondary structure, the authors derived a simple and yet profoundly novel approach to assessing if a protein sequence fits well with a given protein structural fold. Their follow-up work (Elofsson et al., 1996; Fischer and Eisenberg, 1996; Fischer et al., 1996a,b) and the work by Jones, Taylor, and Thornton (Jones et al., 1992) on protein fold recognition led to the development of a new brand of powerful tools for protein structure prediction, which we now term "protein threading." These computational tools have played a key role in extending the utility of all the experimentally solved structures by X-ray crystallography and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), providing structural models and functional predictions for many of the proteins encoded in the hundreds of genomes that have been sequenced up to now.

  9. AN MHD AVALANCHE IN A MULTI-THREADED CORONAL LOOP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hood, A. W.; Cargill, P. J.; Tam, K. V. [School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Fife, KY16 9SS (United Kingdom); Browning, P. K., E-mail: awh@st-andrews.ac.uk [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL (United Kingdom)

    2016-01-20

    For the first time, we demonstrate how an MHD avalanche might occur in a multithreaded coronal loop. Considering 23 non-potential magnetic threads within a loop, we use 3D MHD simulations to show that only one thread needs to be unstable in order to start an avalanche even when the others are below marginal stability. This has significant implications for coronal heating in that it provides for energy dissipation with a trigger mechanism. The instability of the unstable thread follows the evolution determined in many earlier investigations. However, once one stable thread is disrupted, it coalesces with a neighboring thread and this process disrupts other nearby threads. Coalescence with these disrupted threads then occurs leading to the disruption of yet more threads as the avalanche develops. Magnetic energy is released in discrete bursts as the surrounding stable threads are disrupted. The volume integrated heating, as a function of time, shows short spikes suggesting that the temporal form of the heating is more like that of nanoflares than of constant heating.

  10. Heuristic Approach for Balancing Shift Schedules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dae Ho; Yun, Young Su; Lee, Yong Hee

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, a heuristic approach for balancing shift schedules is proposed. For the shift schedules, various constraints which have usually been considered in realworld industry are used, and the objective is to minimize the differences of the workloads in each workgroup. The constraints and objective function are implemented in the proposed heuristic approach. Using a simple instance, the efficiency of the proposed heuristic approach is proved

  11. A single cognitive heuristic process meets the complexity of domain-specific moral heuristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubljević, Veljko; Racine, Eric

    2014-10-01

    The inherence heuristic (a) offers modest insights into the complex nature of both the is-ought tension in moral reasoning and moral reasoning per se, and (b) does not reflect the complexity of domain-specific moral heuristics. Formal and general in nature, we contextualize the process described as "inherence heuristic" in a web of domain-specific heuristics (e.g., agent specific; action specific; consequences specific).

  12. Meditope-Fab interaction: threading the hole.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bzymek, Krzysztof P; Ma, Yuelong; Avery, Kendra N; Horne, David A; Williams, John C

    2017-12-01

    Meditope, a cyclic 12-residue peptide, binds to a unique binding side between the light and heavy chains of the cetuximab Fab. In an effort to improve the affinity of the interaction, it was sought to extend the side chain of Arg8 in the meditope, a residue that is accessible from the other side of the meditope binding site, in order to increase the number of interactions. These modifications included an n-butyl and n-octyl extension as well as hydroxyl, amine and carboxyl substitutions. The atomic structures of the complexes and the binding kinetics for each modified meditope indicated that each extension threaded through the Fab `hole' and that the carboxyethylarginine substitution makes a favorable interaction with the Fab, increasing the half-life of the complex by threefold compared with the unmodified meditope. Taken together, these studies provide a basis for the design of additional modifications to enhance the overall affinity of this unique interaction.

  13. Analysis of Modeling Parameters on Threaded Screws.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vigil, Miquela S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brake, Matthew Robert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Vangoethem, Douglas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-06-01

    Assembled mechanical systems often contain a large number of bolted connections. These bolted connections (joints) are integral aspects of the load path for structural dynamics, and, consequently, are paramount for calculating a structure's stiffness and energy dissipation prop- erties. However, analysts have not found the optimal method to model appropriately these bolted joints. The complexity of the screw geometry cause issues when generating a mesh of the model. This paper will explore different approaches to model a screw-substrate connec- tion. Model parameters such as mesh continuity, node alignment, wedge angles, and thread to body element size ratios are examined. The results of this study will give analysts a better understanding of the influences of these parameters and will aide in finding the optimal method to model bolted connections.

  14. Conspicuous Waste and Representativeness Heuristic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana M. Shishkina

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the similarities between conspicuous waste and representativeness heuristic. The conspicuous waste is analyzed according to the classic Veblen’ interpretation as a strategy to increase social status through conspicuous consumption and conspicuous leisure. In “The Theory of the Leisure Class” Veblen introduced two different types of utility – conspicuous and functional. The article focuses on the possible benefits of the analysis of conspicuous utility not only in terms of institutional economic theory, but also in terms of behavioral economics. To this end, the representativeness heuristics is considered, on the one hand, as a way to optimize the decision-making process, which allows to examine it in comparison with procedural rationality by Simon. On the other hand, it is also analyzed as cognitive bias within the Kahneman and Twersky’ approach. The article provides the analysis of the patterns in the deviations from the rational behavior strategy that could be observed in case of conspicuous waste both in modern market economies in the form of conspicuous consumption and in archaic economies in the form of gift-exchange. The article also focuses on the marketing strategies for luxury consumption’ advertisement. It highlights the impact of the symbolic capital (in Bourdieu’ interpretation on the social and symbolic payments that actors get from the act of conspicuous waste. This allows to perform a analysis of conspicuous consumption both as a rational way to get the particular kind of payments, and, at the same time, as a form of institutionalized cognitive bias.

  15. Integrating soft sensor systems using conductive thread

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Lijun; Jeronimo, Karina; Wei, Tianqi; Nemitz, Markus P.; Lyu, Geng; Stokes, Adam A.

    2018-05-01

    We are part of a growing community of researchers who are developing a new class of soft machines. By using mechanically soft materials (MPa modulus) we can design systems which overcome the bulk-mechanical mismatches between soft biological systems and hard engineered components. To develop fully integrated soft machines—which include power, communications, and control sub-systems—the research community requires methods for interconnecting between soft and hard electronics. Sensors based upon eutectic gallium alloys in microfluidic channels can be used to measure normal and strain forces, but integrating these sensors into systems of heterogeneous Young’s modulus is difficult due the complexity of finding a material which is electrically conductive, mechanically flexible, and stable over prolonged periods of time. Many existing gallium-based liquid alloy sensors are not mechanically or electrically robust, and have poor stability over time. We present the design and fabrication of a high-resolution pressure-sensor soft system that can transduce normal force into a digital output. In this soft system, which is built on a monolithic silicone substrate, a galinstan-based microfluidic pressure sensor is integrated with a flexible printed circuit board. We used conductive thread as the interconnect and found that this method alleviates problems arising due to the mechanical mismatch between conventional metal wires and soft or liquid materials. Conductive thread is low-cost, it is readily wetted by the liquid metal, it produces little bending moment into the microfluidic channel, and it can be connected directly onto the copper bond-pads of the flexible printed circuit board. We built a bridge-system to provide stable readings from the galinstan pressure sensor. This system gives linear measurement results between 500-3500 Pa of applied pressure. We anticipate that integrated systems of this type will find utility in soft-robotic systems as used for wearable

  16. A multi-threading approach to secure VERIFYPIN

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Frieslaar, Ibraheem

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available along side a pin-acceptance program in a multi-threaded environment. These threads are inserted randomly on each execution of the program to create confusion for the attacker. Moreover, the research proposes a more improved version of the pin...

  17. Dynamic thread assignment in web server performance optimization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Weij, W.; Bhulai, S.; van der Mei, R.D.

    2009-01-01

    Popular web sites are expected to handle huge number of requests concurrently within a reasonable time frame. The performance of these web sites is largely dependent on effective thread management of their web servers. Although the implementation of static and dynamic thread policies is common

  18. Gold thread implantation promotes hair growth in human and mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jong-Hwan; Cho, Eun-Young; Kwon, Euna; Kim, Woo-Ho; Park, Jin-Sung; Lee, Yong-Soon

    2017-01-01

    Thread-embedding therapy has been widely applied for cosmetic purposes such as wrinkle reduction and skin tightening. Particularly, gold thread was reported to support connective tissue regeneration, but, its role in hair biology remains largely unknown due to lack of investigation. When we implanted gold thread and Happy Lift™ in human patient for facial lifting, we unexpectedly found an increase of hair regrowth in spite of no use of hair growth medications. When embedded into the depilated dorsal skin of mice, gold thread or polyglycolic acid (PGA) thread, similarly to 5% minoxidil, significantly increased the number of hair follicles on day 14 after implantation. And, hair re-growth promotion in the gold threadimplanted mice were significantly higher than that in PGA thread group on day 11 after depilation. In particular, the skin tissue of gold thread-implanted mice showed stronger PCNA staining and higher collagen density compared with control mice. These results indicate that gold thread implantation can be an effective way to promote hair re-growth although further confirmatory study is needed for more information on therapeutic mechanisms and long-term safety. PMID:29399026

  19. The Probability Heuristics Model of Syllogistic Reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chater, Nick; Oaksford, Mike

    1999-01-01

    Proposes a probability heuristic model for syllogistic reasoning and confirms the rationality of this heuristic by an analysis of the probabilistic validity of syllogistic reasoning that treats logical inference as a limiting case of probabilistic inference. Meta-analysis and two experiments involving 40 adult participants and using generalized…

  20. Modeling reproductive decisions with simple heuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Todd

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Many of the reproductive decisions that humans make happen without much planning or forethought, arising instead through the use of simple choice rules or heuristics that involve relatively little information and processing. Nonetheless, these heuristic-guided decisions are typically beneficial, owing to humans' ecological rationality - the evolved fit between our constrained decision mechanisms and the adaptive problems we face. OBJECTIVE This paper reviews research on the ecological rationality of human decision making in the domain of reproduction, showing how fertility-related decisions are commonly made using various simple heuristics matched to the structure of the environment in which they are applied, rather than being made with information-hungry mechanisms based on optimization or rational economic choice. METHODS First, heuristics for sequential mate search are covered; these heuristics determine when to stop the process of mate search by deciding that a good-enough mate who is also mutually interested has been found, using a process of aspiration-level setting and assessing. These models are tested via computer simulation and comparison to demographic age-at-first-marriage data. Next, a heuristic process of feature-based mate comparison and choice is discussed, in which mate choices are determined by a simple process of feature-matching with relaxing standards over time. Parental investment heuristics used to divide resources among offspring are summarized. Finally, methods for testing the use of such mate choice heuristics in a specific population over time are then described.

  1. Cooperative heuristic multi-agent planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Weerdt, M.M.; Tonino, J.F.M.; Witteveen, C.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we will use the framework to study cooperative heuristic multi-agent planning. During the construction of their plans, the agents use a heuristic function inspired by the FF planner (l3l). At any time in the process of planning the agents may exchange available resources, or they may

  2. "A Heuristic for Visual Thinking in History"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staley, David J.

    2007-01-01

    This article details a heuristic history teachers can use in assigning and evaluating multimedia projects in history. To use this heuristic successfully, requires more than simply following the steps in the list or stages in a recipe: in many ways, it requires a reorientation in what it means to think like an historian. This article, as much as…

  3. Effective Heuristics for New Venture Formation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraaijenbrink, Jeroen

    2010-01-01

    Entrepreneurs are often under time pressure and may only have a short window of opportunity to launch their new venture. This means they often have no time for rational analytical decisions and rather rely on heuristics. Past research on entrepreneurial heuristics has primarily focused on predictive

  4. Religion, Heuristics, and Intergenerational Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Rupert Read; Nassim Nicholas Taleb

    2014-01-01

    Religions come with risk-​managing interdicts and heuristics, and they carry such interdicts and heuristics across generations. We remark on such facets of religion in relation to a propensity among some decision scientists and others to regard practices that they cannot understand as being irrational, biased, and so on.

  5. Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Bolstad, William M

    2011-01-01

    A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic

  6. Bayesian statistics an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Peter M

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel

  7. Comparison of Heuristics for Inhibitory Rule Optimization

    KAUST Repository

    Alsolami, Fawaz; Chikalov, Igor; Moshkov, Mikhail

    2014-01-01

    Friedman test with Nemenyi post-hoc are used to compare the greedy algorithms statistically against each other for length and coverage. The experiments are carried out on real datasets from UCI Machine Learning Repository. For leading heuristics, the constructed rules are compared with optimal ones obtained based on dynamic programming approach. The results seem to be promising for the best heuristics: the average relative difference between length (coverage) of constructed and optimal rules is at most 2.27% (7%, respectively). Furthermore, the quality of classifiers based on sets of inhibitory rules constructed by the considered heuristics are compared against each other, and the results show that the three best heuristics from the point of view classification accuracy coincides with the three well-performed heuristics from the point of view of rule length minimization.

  8. Heuristic Strategies in Systems Biology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fridolin Gross

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Systems biology is sometimes presented as providing a superior approach to the problem of biological complexity. Its use of ‘unbiased’ methods and formal quantitative tools might lead to the impression that the human factor is effectively eliminated. However, a closer look reveals that this impression is misguided. Systems biologists cannot simply assemble molecular information and compute biological behavior. Instead, systems biology’s main contribution is to accelerate the discovery of mechanisms by applying models as heuristic tools. These models rely on a variety of idealizing and simplifying assumptions in order to be efficient for this purpose. The strategies of systems biologists are similar to those of experimentalists in that they attempt to reduce the complexity of the discovery process. Analyzing and comparing these strategies, or ‘heuristics’, reveals the importance of the human factor in computational approaches and helps to situate systems biology within the epistemic landscape of the life sciences.

  9. Heuristic approach to train rescheduling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mladenović Snežana

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Starting from the defined network topology and the timetable assigned beforehand, the paper considers a train rescheduling in respond to disturbances that have occurred. Assuming that the train trips are jobs, which require the elements of infrastructure - resources, it was done by the mapping of the initial problem into a special case of job shop scheduling problem. In order to solve the given problem, a constraint programming approach has been used. A support to fast finding "enough good" schedules is offered by original separation, bound and search heuristic algorithms. In addition, to improve the time performance, instead of the actual objective function with a large domain, a surrogate objective function is used with a smaller domain, if there is such. .

  10. THE HEURISTIC FUNCTION OF SPORT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Petrović

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Being a significant area of human activity, sport has multiple functions. One of the more important functions of sport, especially top sport, is the inventive heuristic function. Creative work, being a process of creating new values, represents a significant possibility for advancement of sport. This paper aims at pointing at the various dimensions of human creative work, at the creative work which can be seen in sport (in a narrow sense and at the scientific and practical areas which borderline sport. The method of theoretical analysis of different approaches to the phenomenon of creative work , both in general and in sport, was applied in this paper. This area can be systematized according to various criterion : the level of creative work, different fields where it appears, the subjects of creative work - creators etc. Case analysis shows that the field of creative work in sport is widening and deepening constantly. There are different levels of creativity not only in the system of training and competition, but in a wider social context of sport as well. As a process of human spirit and mind the creative work belongs not just to athletes and coaches, but also to all the people and social groups who's creative power manifests itself in sport. The classification of creative work in sport according to various criterion allows for heuristic function of sport to be explained comprehensively and to create an image how do the sparks of human spirit improve the micro cosmos of sport. A thorough classification of creative work in sport allows for a detailed analysis of all the elements of creative work and each of it’s area in sport. In this way the progress in sport , as a consequence of innovations in both competitions and athletes’ training and of everything that goes with those activities, can be guided into the needed direction more easily as well as studied and applied.

  11. Empirical Study on Conservative and Representative Heuristics of Hong Kong Small Investors Adopting Momentum and Contrarian Trading Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Chow, Sheung-Chi; Hon, Tai-Yuen; Wong, Wing-Keung; Woo, Kai-Yin

    2017-01-01

    Recently, a new Bayesian approach has been developed to explain some market anomalies. In this paper, we conduct a questionnaire survey to examine whether the theory holds empirically by studying the conservative and representative heuristics by Hong Kong small investors who adopt momentum and/or contrarian trading strategies. In addition, our study provides evidence for the small investors on their time horizon and risk tolerance when facing uncertainty in their investments. Our findings are...

  12. Carbon Nanotube Thread Electrochemical Cell: Detection of Heavy Metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Daoli; Siebold, David; Alvarez, Noe T; Shanov, Vesselin N; Heineman, William R

    2017-09-19

    In this work, all three electrodes in an electrochemical cell were fabricated based on carbon nanotube (CNT) thread. CNT thread partially insulated with a thin polystyrene coating to define the microelectrode area was used as the working electrode; bare CNT thread was used as the auxiliary electrode; and a micro quasi-reference electrode was fabricated by electroplating CNT thread with Ag and then anodizing it in chloride solution to form a layer of AgCl. The Ag|AgCl coated CNT thread electrode provided a stable potential comparable to the conventional liquid-junction type Ag|AgCl reference electrode. The CNT thread auxiliary electrode provided a stable current, which is comparable to a Pt wire auxiliary electrode. This all-CNT thread three electrode cell has been evaluated as a microsensor for the simultaneous determination of trace levels of heavy metal ions by anodic stripping voltammetry (ASV). Hg 2+ , Cu 2+ , and Pb 2+ were used as a representative system for this study. The calculated detection limits (based on the 3σ method) with a 120 s deposition time are 1.05, 0.53, and 0.57 nM for Hg 2+ , Cu 2+ , and Pb 2+ , respectively. These electrodes significantly reduce the dimensions of the conventional three electrode electrochemical cell to the microscale.

  13. A Moiré Pattern-Based Thread Counter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reich, Gary

    2017-10-01

    Thread count is a term used in the textile industry as a measure of how closely woven a fabric is. It is usually defined as the sum of the number of warp threads per inch (or cm) and the number of weft threads per inch. (It is sometimes confusingly described as the number of threads per square inch.) In recent years it has also become a subject of considerable interest and some controversy among consumers. Many consumers consider thread count to be a key measure of the quality or fineness of a fabric, especially bed sheets, and they seek out fabrics that advertise high counts. Manufacturers in turn have responded to this interest by offering fabrics with ever higher claimed thread counts (sold at ever higher prices), sometime achieving the higher counts by distorting the definition of the term with some "creative math." In 2005 the Federal Trade Commission noted the growing use of thread count in advertising at the retail level and warned of the potential for consumers to be misled by distortions of the definition.

  14. Outcomes of polydioxanone knotless thread lifting for facial rejuvenation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, Dong Hye; Jang, Hee Won; Lee, Sang Jun; Lee, Won Seok; Ryu, Hwa Jung

    2015-06-01

    Thread lifting is a minimally invasive technique for facial rejuvenation. Various devices for thread lifting using polydioxanone (PDO) are popular in aesthetic clinics in Korea, but there have been a few studies regarding its use. To describe PDO thread and techniques adopted to counteract the descent and laxity of the face. A retrospective chart review was conducted over a 24-month period. A total of 31 thread lifting procedures were performed. On each side, 5 bidirectional cog threads were used in the procedure for the flabby skin of the nasolabial folds. And, the procedure was performed on the marionette line using 2 twin threads. In most patients (87%), the results obtained were considered satisfactory. Consensus ratings by 2 physicians found that objective outcomes were divided among "excellent," "good," "fair," and "poor." Texture wise, the outcome ratings were 13 as excellent and 9 as good. Lifting wise, ratings were 11 as excellent and 6 as good. The incidence of complications was low and not serious. Facial rejuvenation using PDO thread is a safe and effective procedure associated with only minor complications when performed on patients with modest face sagging, fine wrinkles, and marked facial pores.

  15. Radiometric determination of uniformity of putting paraffin on textile threads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ridel', Z.; Kherrmann, Eh.; Shefer, I.; Tseiner, A.

    1979-01-01

    To improve processing of the natural and synthetic fiber threads on stocking-frames, they are treated by paraffin. Paraffin is applied in the amounts nearly equal to 0.1 -1.0 g for 10 4 m of the thread's length. To determine amount of paraffin on thread and to determine uniformity if its application, a radiometric method has been developed. As a radioactive label, didocilephosphate of rare earths was used. This compound has good solubility in hydrocarbons and does not change physical properties of paraffin in the investigated field of its application as well as its concentration. It is possible to add to paraffin this radioactive label or a non-active label with subsequent its activation. Amount of paraffin, applied on a thread is determined by means of measurement of activity of thread samples of different length. Information about uniformity of paraffin application on thread have been obtained by means of autoradiography. It has been found that paraffin in mainly applied on the thread's bulges [ru

  16. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

  17. The Bayesian Score Statistic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleibergen, F.R.; Kleijn, R.; Paap, R.

    2000-01-01

    We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative. Unlike

  18. RSQRT: AN HEURISTIC FOR ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF CLUSTERS TO REPORT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruso, Kelsey

    2012-01-01

    Clustering can be a valuable tool for analyzing large datasets, such as in e-commerce applications. Anyone who clusters must choose how many item clusters, K, to report. Unfortunately, one must guess at K or some related parameter. Elsewhere we introduced a strongly-supported heuristic, RSQRT, which predicts K as a function of the attribute or item count, depending on attribute scales. We conducted a second analysis where we sought confirmation of the heuristic, analyzing data sets from theUCImachine learning benchmark repository. For the 25 studies where sufficient detail was available, we again found strong support. Also, in a side-by-side comparison of 28 studies, RSQRT best-predicted K and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) predicted K are the same. RSQRT has a lower cost of O(log log n) versus O(n2) for BIC, and is more widely applicable. Using RSQRT prospectively could be much better than merely guessing. PMID:22773923

  19. RSQRT: AN HEURISTIC FOR ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF CLUSTERS TO REPORT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlis, John; Bruso, Kelsey

    2012-03-01

    Clustering can be a valuable tool for analyzing large datasets, such as in e-commerce applications. Anyone who clusters must choose how many item clusters, K, to report. Unfortunately, one must guess at K or some related parameter. Elsewhere we introduced a strongly-supported heuristic, RSQRT, which predicts K as a function of the attribute or item count, depending on attribute scales. We conducted a second analysis where we sought confirmation of the heuristic, analyzing data sets from theUCImachine learning benchmark repository. For the 25 studies where sufficient detail was available, we again found strong support. Also, in a side-by-side comparison of 28 studies, RSQRT best-predicted K and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) predicted K are the same. RSQRT has a lower cost of O(log log n) versus O(n(2)) for BIC, and is more widely applicable. Using RSQRT prospectively could be much better than merely guessing.

  20. Automatic Generation of Heuristics for Scheduling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Robert A.; Bresina, John L.; Rodgers, Stuart M.

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents a technique, called GenH, that automatically generates search heuristics for scheduling problems. The impetus for developing this technique is the growing consensus that heuristics encode advice that is, at best, useful in solving most, or typical, problem instances, and, at worst, useful in solving only a narrowly defined set of instances. In either case, heuristic problem solvers, to be broadly applicable, should have a means of automatically adjusting to the idiosyncrasies of each problem instance. GenH generates a search heuristic for a given problem instance by hill-climbing in the space of possible multi-attribute heuristics, where the evaluation of a candidate heuristic is based on the quality of the solution found under its guidance. We present empirical results obtained by applying GenH to the real world problem of telescope observation scheduling. These results demonstrate that GenH is a simple and effective way of improving the performance of an heuristic scheduler.

  1. Comparison of Heuristics for Inhibitory Rule Optimization

    KAUST Repository

    Alsolami, Fawaz

    2014-09-13

    Knowledge representation and extraction are very important tasks in data mining. In this work, we proposed a variety of rule-based greedy algorithms that able to obtain knowledge contained in a given dataset as a series of inhibitory rules containing an expression “attribute ≠ value” on the right-hand side. The main goal of this paper is to determine based on rule characteristics, rule length and coverage, whether the proposed rule heuristics are statistically significantly different or not; if so, we aim to identify the best performing rule heuristics for minimization of rule length and maximization of rule coverage. Friedman test with Nemenyi post-hoc are used to compare the greedy algorithms statistically against each other for length and coverage. The experiments are carried out on real datasets from UCI Machine Learning Repository. For leading heuristics, the constructed rules are compared with optimal ones obtained based on dynamic programming approach. The results seem to be promising for the best heuristics: the average relative difference between length (coverage) of constructed and optimal rules is at most 2.27% (7%, respectively). Furthermore, the quality of classifiers based on sets of inhibitory rules constructed by the considered heuristics are compared against each other, and the results show that the three best heuristics from the point of view classification accuracy coincides with the three well-performed heuristics from the point of view of rule length minimization.

  2. Bayesian Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  3. Exploiting Thread Parallelism for Ocean Modeling on Cray XC Supercomputers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarje, Abhinav [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Jacobsen, Douglas W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Williams, Samuel W. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ringler, Todd [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Oliker, Leonid [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-05-01

    The incorporation of increasing core counts in modern processors used to build state-of-the-art supercomputers is driving application development towards exploitation of thread parallelism, in addition to distributed memory parallelism, with the goal of delivering efficient high-performance codes. In this work we describe the exploitation of threading and our experiences with it with respect to a real-world ocean modeling application code, MPAS-Ocean. We present detailed performance analysis and comparisons of various approaches and configurations for threading on the Cray XC series supercomputers.

  4. Z-2 Threaded Insert Design and Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Amy; Rhodes, Richard; Jones, Robert J.; Graziosi, David; Ferl, Jinny; Sweeny, Mitch; Scarborough, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    NASA's Z-2 prototype space suit contains several components fabricated from an advanced hybrid composite laminate consisting of IM10 carbon fiber and fiber glass. One requirement was to have removable, replaceable helicoil inserts to which other suit components would be fastened. An approach utilizing bonded in inserts with helicoils inside of them was implemented. During initial assembly, cracking sounds were heard followed by the lifting of one of the blind inserts out of its hole when the screws were torqued. A failure investigation was initiated to understand the mechanism of the failure. Ultimately, it was determined that the pre-tension caused by torqueing the fasteners is a much larger force than induced from the pressure loads of the suit which was not considered in the insert design. Bolt tension is determined by dividing the torque on the screw by a k value multiplied by the thread diameter of the bolt. The k value is a factor that accounts for friction in the system. A common value used for k for a non-lubricated screw is 0.2. The k value can go down by as much as 0.1 if the screw is lubricated which means for the same torque, a much larger tension could be placed on the bolt and insert. This paper summarizes the failure investigation that was performed to identify the root cause of the suit failure and details how the insert design was modified to resist a higher pull out tension.

  5. The Effect of Incentive Structure on Heuristic Decision Making: The Proportion Heuristic

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Oxoby

    2007-01-01

    When making judgments, individuals often utilize heuristics to interpret information. We report on a series of experiments designed to test the ways in which incentive mechanisms influence the use of a particular heuristic in decision-making. Specifically, we demonstrate how information regarding the number of available practice problems influences the behaviors of individuals preparing for an exam (the proportion heuristic). More importantly the extent to which this information influences be...

  6. P-Refinement and P-Threads (Preprint)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dong, Steven; Karniadakis, George E

    2002-01-01

    ...]) in d dimensions, which is higher than lower-order methods. In this paper, we demonstrate that by employing multi-threading within MPI processes we manage to counter- balance the cost increase associated with P-refinement...

  7. Threaded cognition: an integrated theory of concurrent multitasking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvucci, Dario D; Taatgen, Niels A

    2008-01-01

    The authors propose the idea of threaded cognition, an integrated theory of concurrent multitasking--that is, performing 2 or more tasks at once. Threaded cognition posits that streams of thought can be represented as threads of processing coordinated by a serial procedural resource and executed across other available resources (e.g., perceptual and motor resources). The theory specifies a parsimonious mechanism that allows for concurrent execution, resource acquisition, and resolution of resource conflicts, without the need for specialized executive processes. By instantiating this mechanism as a computational model, threaded cognition provides explicit predictions of how multitasking behavior can result in interference, or lack thereof, for a given set of tasks. The authors illustrate the theory in model simulations of several representative domains ranging from simple laboratory tasks such as dual-choice tasks to complex real-world domains such as driving and driver distraction. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

  8. Heuristic attacks against graphical password generators

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Peach, S

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the authors explore heuristic attacks against graphical password generators. A new trend is emerging to use user clickable pictures to generate passwords. This technique of authentication can be successfully used for - for example...

  9. A Direct Heuristic Algorithm for Linear Programming

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. An (3) mathematically non-iterative heuristic procedure that needs no artificial variable is presented for solving linear programming problems. An optimality test is included. Numerical experiments depict the utility/scope of such a procedure.

  10. Establishing usability heuristics for heuristics evaluation in a specific domain: Is there a consensus?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermawati, Setia; Lawson, Glyn

    2016-09-01

    Heuristics evaluation is frequently employed to evaluate usability. While general heuristics are suitable to evaluate most user interfaces, there is still a need to establish heuristics for specific domains to ensure that their specific usability issues are identified. This paper presents a comprehensive review of 70 studies related to usability heuristics for specific domains. The aim of this paper is to review the processes that were applied to establish heuristics in specific domains and identify gaps in order to provide recommendations for future research and area of improvements. The most urgent issue found is the deficiency of validation effort following heuristics proposition and the lack of robustness and rigour of validation method adopted. Whether domain specific heuristics perform better or worse than general ones is inconclusive due to lack of validation quality and clarity on how to assess the effectiveness of heuristics for specific domains. The lack of validation quality also affects effort in improving existing heuristics for specific domain as their weaknesses are not addressed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A Hybrid Approach for Thread Recommendation in MOOC Forums

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmad. A. Kardan; Amir Narimani; Foozhan Ataiefard

    2017-01-01

    Recommender Systems have been developed to provide contents and services compatible to users based on their behaviors and interests. Due to information overload in online discussion forums and users diverse interests, recommending relative topics and threads is considered to be helpful for improving the ease of forum usage. In order to lead learners to find relevant information in educational forums, recommendations are even more needed. We present a hybrid thread recommender system for MOOC ...

  12. Threaded-fastener experience in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koo, W.H.

    1983-01-01

    This report identifies 44 incidents of threaded-fastener degradation and failure in nuclear power plants from October 1964 to March 1982. It provides an overview of some of the threaded-fastener problems that have occurred since 1964. Safety implications of these incidents are discussed, and short-term regulatory actions and ongoing long-term regulatory actions are described. Information included in this report represents the current NRC staff understanding of each issue

  13. Nuclear reactor incorporating locking device for threaded bolt connections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blaushild, R.M.

    1987-01-01

    A nuclear reactor having a pressure vessel and a first element is described comprising a core barrel situated within the pressure vessel. The core barrel has a baffle former secured in and to the core barrel by bolted connections, and a second element comprising baffle plates secured to the inner surface of the baffle former by bolted connections, with a locking device to prevent loosening of bolted connections between the baffle former and at least one of the elements. The baffle former and at least one element are held together by a headed, threaded bolt engaged in a bore coaxially extending in the baffle former and at least one element and threadedly engaged in a threaded section in at least the baffle former. The threaded section has first threaded of a first direction, with the head of the bolt engaged with a shoulder about the bore in at least one element to hold the baffle formed and at least one element together, the head of the bolt having a first diameter and a cavity, having an unsymmetrical wall thereabout, in the end surface thereof. It comprises a recess in at least one element coaxial with the bore forming a wall thereabout and extending inwardly from the outer surface of at least one element, the recess having a second diameter greater than the first diameter, with at least one element having second threads in the wall of a direction opposite the direction of the first threads of the threaded bore; a locking nut having a base with a downwardly depending cylindrical wall thereabout

  14. Bayesian computation with R

    CERN Document Server

    Albert, Jim

    2009-01-01

    There has been a dramatic growth in the development and application of Bayesian inferential methods. Some of this growth is due to the availability of powerful simulation-based algorithms to summarize posterior distributions. There has been also a growing interest in the use of the system R for statistical analyses. R's open source nature, free availability, and large number of contributor packages have made R the software of choice for many statisticians in education and industry. Bayesian Computation with R introduces Bayesian modeling by the use of computation using the R language. The earl

  15. RELAXATION HEURISTICS FOR THE SET COVERING PROBLEM

    OpenAIRE

    Umetani, Shunji; Yagiura, Mutsunori; 柳浦, 睦憲

    2007-01-01

    The set covering problem (SCP) is one of representative combinatorial optimization problems, which has many practical applications. The continuous development of mathematical programming has derived a number of impressive heuristic algorithms as well as exact branch-and-bound algorithms, which can solve huge SCP instances of bus, railway and airline crew scheduling problems. We survey heuristic algorithms for SCP focusing mainly on contributions of mathematical programming techniques to heuri...

  16. A heuristic forecasting model for stock decision

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, D.; Jiang, Q.; Li, X.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a heuristic forecasting model based on neural networks for stock decision-making. Some heuristic strategies are presented for enhancing the learning capability of neural networks and obtaining better trading performance. The China Shanghai Composite Index is used as case study. The forecasting model can forecast the buying and selling signs according to the result of neural network prediction. Results are compared with a benchmark buy-and-hold strategy. ...

  17. Psychology into economics: fast and frugal heuristics

    OpenAIRE

    Schilirò, Daniele

    2015-01-01

    The present essay focuses on the fast and frugal heuristics program set forth by Gerd Gigerenzer and his fellows. In particular it examines the contribution of Gigerenzer and Goldstein (1996) ‘Reasoning the Fast and Frugal Way: Models of Bounded Rationality’. This essay, following the theoretical propositions and the empirical evidence of Gigerenzer and Goldstein, points out that simple cognitive mechanisms such as fast and frugal heuristics can be capable of successful performance in real wo...

  18. Arational heuristic model of economic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Grandori, Anna

    2010-01-01

    The article discuss the limits of both the rational actor and the behavioral paradigms in explaining and guiding innovative decision making and outlines a model of economic decision making that in the course of being 'heuristic' (research and discovery oriented) is also 'rational' (in the broad sense of following correct reasoning and scientific methods, non 'biasing'). The model specifies a set of 'rational heuristics' for innovative decision making, for the various sub-processes of problem ...

  19. Social heuristics shape intuitive cooperation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rand, David G; Peysakhovich, Alexander; Kraft-Todd, Gordon T; Newman, George E; Wurzbacher, Owen; Nowak, Martin A; Greene, Joshua D

    2014-04-22

    Cooperation is central to human societies. Yet relatively little is known about the cognitive underpinnings of cooperative decision making. Does cooperation require deliberate self-restraint? Or is spontaneous prosociality reined in by calculating self-interest? Here we present a theory of why (and for whom) intuition favors cooperation: cooperation is typically advantageous in everyday life, leading to the formation of generalized cooperative intuitions. Deliberation, by contrast, adjusts behaviour towards the optimum for a given situation. Thus, in one-shot anonymous interactions where selfishness is optimal, intuitive responses tend to be more cooperative than deliberative responses. We test this 'social heuristics hypothesis' by aggregating across every cooperation experiment using time pressure that we conducted over a 2-year period (15 studies and 6,910 decisions), as well as performing a novel time pressure experiment. Doing so demonstrates a positive average effect of time pressure on cooperation. We also find substantial variation in this effect, and show that this variation is partly explained by previous experience with one-shot lab experiments.

  20. Multi-threaded software framework development for the ATLAS experiment

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00226135; Baines, John; Bold, Tomasz; Calafiura, Paolo; Dotti, Andrea; Farrell, Steven; Leggett, Charles; Malon, David; Ritsch, Elmar; Snyder, Scott; Tsulaia, Vakhtang; van Gemmeren, Peter; Wynne, Benjamin

    2016-01-01

    ATLAS's current software framework, Gaudi/Athena, has been very successful for the experiment in LHC Runs 1 and 2. However, its single threaded design has been recognised for some time to be increasingly problematic as CPUs have increased core counts and decreased available memory per core. Even the multi-process version of Athena, AthenaMP, will not scale to the range of architectures we expect to use beyond Run2. ATLAS examined the requirements on an updated multi-threaded framework and laid out plans for a new framework, including better support for high level trigger (HLT) use cases, in 2014. In this paper we report on our progress in developing the new multi-threaded task parallel extension of Athena, AthenaMT. Implementing AthenaMT has required many significant code changes. Progress has been made in updating key concepts of the framework, to allow the incorporation of different levels of thread safety in algorithmic code (from un-migrated thread-unsafe code, to thread safe copyable code to reentrant co...

  1. Multi-threaded Software Framework Development for the ATLAS Experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Stewart, Graeme; The ATLAS collaboration; Baines, John; Calafiura, Paolo; Dotti, Andrea; Farrell, Steven; Leggett, Charles; Malon, David; Ritsch, Elmar; Snyder, Scott; Tsulaia, Vakhtang; van Gemmeren, Peter; Wynne, Benjamin

    2016-01-01

    ATLAS's current software framework, Gaudi/Athena, has been very successful for the experiment in LHC Runs 1 and 2. However, its single threaded design has been recognised for some time to be increasingly problematic as CPUs have increased core counts and decreased available memory per core. Even the multi-process version of Athena, AthenaMP, will not scale to the range of architectures we expect to use beyond Run2. ATLAS examined the requirements on an updated multi-threaded framework and layed out plans for a new framework, including better support for high level trigger (HLT) use cases, in 2014. In this paper we report on our progress in developing the new multi-threaded task parallel extension of Athena, AthenaMT. Implementing AthenaMT has required many significant code changes. Progress has been made in updating key concepts of the framework, to allow the incorporation of different levels of thread safety in algorithmic code (from un-migrated thread-unsafe code, to thread safe copyable code to reentrant c...

  2. Fabrication and Characterisation of Flexible Coaxial Thin Thread Supercapacitors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fulian Qiu

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Flexible coaxial thin thread supercapacitors were fabricated semi-automatically using a dip coating method. A typical coaxial thin thread supercapacitor of a length of 70 cm demonstrated a specific length capacitance of 0.3 mF cm-1 (11.2 mF cm-2 and 2.18 F cm-3 at 5 mV s-1, the device exhibited good electrochemical performance with a high volume energy density of 0.22 mWh cm-3 at a power density of 22 mW cm-3. Thread supercapacitors were assembled in series and parallel combinations, the accepted models for series and parallel circuit combinations were obeyed for two coaxial thread supercapacitors. The thread shows high flexibility and uniformity of specific length capacitance, one integrated with a commercial solar cell could be charged and power a LED. The process is simple, robust and easy to scale up to make unlimited length thread supercapacitors for numerous miniaturized and flexible electronic applications.

  3. Redoable Tie-Over Dressing Using Multiple Loop Silk Threads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyeon Jong Jo

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available After skin grafting, to prevent hematoma or seroma collection at the graft site, a tie-over dressing has been commonly used. However, although the conventional tie-over dressing by suture is a useful method for securing a graft site, refixation is difficult when repeated tie-over dressing is needed. Therefore, we recommend a redoable tie-over dressing technique with multiple loops threads and connecting silk threads. After the raw surface of each of our cases was covered with a skin graft, multiple loop silk thread attached with nylon at the skin graft margin. We applied the ointment gauze and wet cotton/fluffy gauze over the skin graft, then fixed the dressing by connecting cross-counter multiple loop thread with connecting silk threads. When we opened the tie-over dressing by cutting the connecting silk threads, we repeated the tie-over dressing with the same method. The skin graft was taken successfully without hematoma or seroma collection or any other complications. In conclusion, we report a novel tie-over dressing enabling simple fixation of the dressing to maintain proper tension for wounds that require repetitive fixation. Further, with this reliable method, the skin grafts were well taken.

  4. Redoable Tie-Over Dressing Using Multiple Loop Silk Threads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyeon Jong Jo

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available After skin grafting, to prevent hematoma or seroma collection at the graft site, a tie-over dressing has been commonly used. However, although the conventional tie-over dressing by suture is a useful method for securing a graft site, refixation is difficult when repeated tieover dressing is needed. Therefore, we recommend a redoable tie-over dressing technique with multiple loops threads and connecting silk threads. After the raw surface of each of our cases was covered with a skin graft, multiple loop silk thread attached with nylon at the skin graft margin. We applied the ointment gauze and wet cotton/fluffy gauze over the skin graft, then fixed the dressing by connecting cross-counter multiple loop thread with connecting silk threads. When we opened the tie-over dressing by cutting the connecting silk threads, we repeated the tie-over dressing with the same method. The skin graft was taken successfully without hematoma or seroma collection or any other complications. In conclusion, we report a novel tie-over dressing enabling simple fixation of the dressing to maintain proper tension for wounds that require repetitive fixation. Further, with this reliable method, the skin grafts were well taken.

  5. Heuristic thinking makes a chemist smart.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graulich, Nicole; Hopf, Henning; Schreiner, Peter R

    2010-05-01

    We focus on the virtually neglected use of heuristic principles in understanding and teaching of organic chemistry. As human thinking is not comparable to computer systems employing factual knowledge and algorithms--people rarely make decisions through careful considerations of every possible event and its probability, risks or usefulness--research in science and teaching must include psychological aspects of the human decision making processes. Intuitive analogical and associative reasoning and the ability to categorize unexpected findings typically demonstrated by experienced chemists should be made accessible to young learners through heuristic concepts. The psychology of cognition defines heuristics as strategies that guide human problem-solving and deciding procedures, for example with patterns, analogies, or prototypes. Since research in the field of artificial intelligence and current studies in the psychology of cognition have provided evidence for the usefulness of heuristics in discovery, the status of heuristics has grown into something useful and teachable. In this tutorial review, we present a heuristic analysis of a familiar fundamental process in organic chemistry--the cyclic six-electron case, and we show that this approach leads to a more conceptual insight in understanding, as well as in teaching and learning.

  6. Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

    2018-02-01

    This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

  7. Bayesian methods for data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Carlin, Bradley P.

    2009-01-01

    Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors

  8. Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani

    We propose a Bayesian inferential procedure for the noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and incorporating effects of missing variables. In particular, we devise a fast and reliable posterior simulator that yields the predictive distribution...

  9. Statistics: a Bayesian perspective

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berry, Donald A

    1996-01-01

    ...: it is the only introductory textbook based on Bayesian ideas, it combines concepts and methods, it presents statistics as a means of integrating data into the significant process, it develops ideas...

  10. Bayesian psychometric scaling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fox, Gerardus J.A.; van den Berg, Stéphanie Martine; Veldkamp, Bernard P.; Irwing, P.; Booth, T.; Hughes, D.

    2015-01-01

    In educational and psychological studies, psychometric methods are involved in the measurement of constructs, and in constructing and validating measurement instruments. Assessment results are typically used to measure student proficiency levels and test characteristics. Recently, Bayesian item

  11. Bayesian Networks An Introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Koski, Timo

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include:.: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications.; A detailed description of learni

  12. A Bayesian encourages dropout

    OpenAIRE

    Maeda, Shin-ichi

    2014-01-01

    Dropout is one of the key techniques to prevent the learning from overfitting. It is explained that dropout works as a kind of modified L2 regularization. Here, we shed light on the dropout from Bayesian standpoint. Bayesian interpretation enables us to optimize the dropout rate, which is beneficial for learning of weight parameters and prediction after learning. The experiment result also encourages the optimization of the dropout.

  13. Thread selection according to predefined power characteristics during context switching on compute nodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    None, None

    2013-06-04

    Methods, apparatus, and products are disclosed for thread selection during context switching on a plurality of compute nodes that includes: executing, by a compute node, an application using a plurality of threads of execution, including executing one or more of the threads of execution; selecting, by the compute node from a plurality of available threads of execution for the application, a next thread of execution in dependence upon power characteristics for each of the available threads; determining, by the compute node, whether criteria for a thread context switch are satisfied; and performing, by the compute node, the thread context switch if the criteria for a thread context switch are satisfied, including executing the next thread of execution.

  14. Basics of Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Sujit K

    2010-01-01

    Bayesian methods are rapidly becoming popular tools for making statistical inference in various fields of science including biology, engineering, finance, and genetics. One of the key aspects of Bayesian inferential method is its logical foundation that provides a coherent framework to utilize not only empirical but also scientific information available to a researcher. Prior knowledge arising from scientific background, expert judgment, or previously collected data is used to build a prior distribution which is then combined with current data via the likelihood function to characterize the current state of knowledge using the so-called posterior distribution. Bayesian methods allow the use of models of complex physical phenomena that were previously too difficult to estimate (e.g., using asymptotic approximations). Bayesian methods offer a means of more fully understanding issues that are central to many practical problems by allowing researchers to build integrated models based on hierarchical conditional distributions that can be estimated even with limited amounts of data. Furthermore, advances in numerical integration methods, particularly those based on Monte Carlo methods, have made it possible to compute the optimal Bayes estimators. However, there is a reasonably wide gap between the background of the empirically trained scientists and the full weight of Bayesian statistical inference. Hence, one of the goals of this chapter is to bridge the gap by offering elementary to advanced concepts that emphasize linkages between standard approaches and full probability modeling via Bayesian methods.

  15. Using tree diversity to compare phylogenetic heuristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sul, Seung-Jin; Matthews, Suzanne; Williams, Tiffani L

    2009-04-29

    Evolutionary trees are family trees that represent the relationships between a group of organisms. Phylogenetic heuristics are used to search stochastically for the best-scoring trees in tree space. Given that better tree scores are believed to be better approximations of the true phylogeny, traditional evaluation techniques have used tree scores to determine the heuristics that find the best scores in the fastest time. We develop new techniques to evaluate phylogenetic heuristics based on both tree scores and topologies to compare Pauprat and Rec-I-DCM3, two popular Maximum Parsimony search algorithms. Our results show that although Pauprat and Rec-I-DCM3 find the trees with the same best scores, topologically these trees are quite different. Furthermore, the Rec-I-DCM3 trees cluster distinctly from the Pauprat trees. In addition to our heatmap visualizations of using parsimony scores and the Robinson-Foulds distance to compare best-scoring trees found by the two heuristics, we also develop entropy-based methods to show the diversity of the trees found. Overall, Pauprat identifies more diverse trees than Rec-I-DCM3. Overall, our work shows that there is value to comparing heuristics beyond the parsimony scores that they find. Pauprat is a slower heuristic than Rec-I-DCM3. However, our work shows that there is tremendous value in using Pauprat to reconstruct trees-especially since it finds identical scoring but topologically distinct trees. Hence, instead of discounting Pauprat, effort should go in improving its implementation. Ultimately, improved performance measures lead to better phylogenetic heuristics and will result in better approximations of the true evolutionary history of the organisms of interest.

  16. Prediction-based dynamic load-sharing heuristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Kumar K.; Devarakonda, Murthy; Iyer, Ravishankar K.

    1993-01-01

    The authors present dynamic load-sharing heuristics that use predicted resource requirements of processes to manage workloads in a distributed system. A previously developed statistical pattern-recognition method is employed for resource prediction. While nonprediction-based heuristics depend on a rapidly changing system status, the new heuristics depend on slowly changing program resource usage patterns. Furthermore, prediction-based heuristics can be more effective since they use future requirements rather than just the current system state. Four prediction-based heuristics, two centralized and two distributed, are presented. Using trace driven simulations, they are compared against random scheduling and two effective nonprediction based heuristics. Results show that the prediction-based centralized heuristics achieve up to 30 percent better response times than the nonprediction centralized heuristic, and that the prediction-based distributed heuristics achieve up to 50 percent improvements relative to their nonprediction counterpart.

  17. Quantifying Heuristic Bias: Anchoring, Availability, and Representativeness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richie, Megan; Josephson, S Andrew

    2018-01-01

    Construct: Authors examined whether a new vignette-based instrument could isolate and quantify heuristic bias. Heuristics are cognitive shortcuts that may introduce bias and contribute to error. There is no standardized instrument available to quantify heuristic bias in clinical decision making, limiting future study of educational interventions designed to improve calibration of medical decisions. This study presents validity data to support a vignette-based instrument quantifying bias due to the anchoring, availability, and representativeness heuristics. Participants completed questionnaires requiring assignment of probabilities to potential outcomes of medical and nonmedical scenarios. The instrument randomly presented scenarios in one of two versions: Version A, encouraging heuristic bias, and Version B, worded neutrally. The primary outcome was the difference in probability judgments for Version A versus Version B scenario options. Of 167 participants recruited, 139 enrolled. Participants assigned significantly higher mean probability values to Version A scenario options (M = 9.56, SD = 3.75) than Version B (M = 8.98, SD = 3.76), t(1801) = 3.27, p = .001. This result remained significant analyzing medical scenarios alone (Version A, M = 9.41, SD = 3.92; Version B, M = 8.86, SD = 4.09), t(1204) = 2.36, p = .02. Analyzing medical scenarios by heuristic revealed a significant difference between Version A and B for availability (Version A, M = 6.52, SD = 3.32; Version B, M = 5.52, SD = 3.05), t(404) = 3.04, p = .003, and representativeness (Version A, M = 11.45, SD = 3.12; Version B, M = 10.67, SD = 3.71), t(396) = 2.28, p = .02, but not anchoring. Stratifying by training level, students maintained a significant difference between Version A and B medical scenarios (Version A, M = 9.83, SD = 3.75; Version B, M = 9.00, SD = 3.98), t(465) = 2.29, p = .02, but not residents or attendings. Stratifying by heuristic and training level, availability maintained

  18. Argobots: A Lightweight Low-Level Threading and Tasking Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Sangmin; Amer, Abdelhalim; Balaji, Pavan; Bordage, Cyril; Bosilca, George; Brooks, Alex; Carns, Philip; Castello, Adrian; Genet, Damien; Herault, Thomas; Iwasaki, Shintaro; Jindal, Prateek; Kale, Laxmikant V.; Krishnamoorthy, Sriram; Lifflander, Jonathan; Lu, Huiwei; Meneses, Esteban; Snir, Marc; Sun, Yanhua; Taura, Kenjiro; Beckman, Pete

    2018-03-01

    In the past few decades, a number of user-level threading and tasking models have been proposed in the literature to address the shortcomings of OS-level threads, primarily with respect to cost and flexibility. Current state-of-the-art user-level threading and tasking models, however, either are too specific to applications or architectures or are not as powerful or flexible. In this paper, we present Argobots, a lightweight, low-level threading and tasking framework that is designed as a portable and performant substrate for high-level programming models or runtime systems. Argobots offers a carefully designed execution model that balances generality of functionality with providing a rich set of controls to allow specialization by end users or high-level programming models. We describe the design, implementation, and performance characterization of Argobots and present integrations with three high-level models: OpenMP, MPI, and colocated I/O services. Evaluations show that (1) Argobots, while providing richer capabilities, is competitive with existing simpler generic threading runtimes; (2) our OpenMP runtime offers more efficient interoperability capabilities than production OpenMP runtimes do; (3) when MPI interoperates with Argobots instead of Pthreads, it enjoys reduced synchronization costs and better latency-hiding capabilities; and (4) I/O services with Argobots reduce interference with colocated applications while achieving performance competitive with that of a Pthreads approach.

  19. Argobots: A Lightweight Low-Level Threading and Tasking Framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seo, Sangmin; Amer, Abdelhalim; Balaji, Pavan; Bordage, Cyril; Bosilca, George

    2017-01-01

    In the past few decades, a number of user-level threading and tasking models have been proposed in the literature to address the shortcomings of OS-level threads, primarily with respect to cost and flexibility. Current state-of-the-art user-level threading and tasking models, however, are either too specific to applications or architectures or are not as powerful or flexible. In this article, we present Argobots, a lightweight, low-level threading and tasking framework that is designed as a portable and performant substrate for high-level programming models or runtime systems. Argobots offers a carefully designed execution model that balances generality of functionality with providing a rich set of controls to allow specialization by the user or high-level programming model. Here, we describe the design, implementation, and optimization of Argobots and present integrations with three example high-level models: OpenMP, MPI, and co-located I/O service. Evaluations show that (1) Argobots outperforms existing generic threading runtimes; (2) our OpenMP runtime offers more efficient interoperability capabilities than production OpenMP runtimes do; (3) when MPI interoperates with Argobots instead of Pthreads, it enjoys reduced synchronization costs and better latency hiding capabilities; and (4) I/O service with Argobots reduces interference with co-located applications, achieving performance competitive with that of the Pthreads version.

  20. A Review of Lightweight Thread Approaches for High Performance Computing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castello, Adrian; Pena, Antonio J.; Seo, Sangmin; Mayo, Rafael; Balaji, Pavan; Quintana-Orti, Enrique S.

    2016-09-12

    High-level, directive-based solutions are becoming the programming models (PMs) of the multi/many-core architectures. Several solutions relying on operating system (OS) threads perfectly work with a moderate number of cores. However, exascale systems will spawn hundreds of thousands of threads in order to exploit their massive parallel architectures and thus conventional OS threads are too heavy for that purpose. Several lightweight thread (LWT) libraries have recently appeared offering lighter mechanisms to tackle massive concurrency. In order to examine the suitability of LWTs in high-level runtimes, we develop a set of microbenchmarks consisting of commonlyfound patterns in current parallel codes. Moreover, we study the semantics offered by some LWT libraries in order to expose the similarities between different LWT application programming interfaces. This study reveals that a reduced set of LWT functions can be sufficient to cover the common parallel code patterns and that those LWT libraries perform better than OS threads-based solutions in cases where task and nested parallelism are becoming more popular with new architectures.

  1. X-ray measurement of residual stress on bolt threads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hagiwara, Masaya; Nakahara, Kanefumi; Yoshimoto, Isamu.

    1989-01-01

    This study deals with X-ray measurement of residual stress at the local area around the thread root of a bolt. Residual stress in the 0.5 mm x 5 mm area was measured using a method of stepped scanning and parabolic approximation. The conditions of measurement had been determined and evaluated through the preliminary measurement of compressive stress acting on the cylindrical surface. Furthermore, the fatigue strength estimated by applying the residual stress data to the previously presented hypothesis was compared with the experimental results. The main conclusions obtained were as follows: (1) The residual stress in a relatively small area on the cylindrical surface with large curvature can be measured by X-ray using a method of stepped scanning and parabolic approximation; (2) The compressive residual stress measured at the thread root was larger for the bolt manufactured by thread rolling after heat treatment than for one manufactured by thread rolling before heat treatment; (3) The distribution of residual stress along the axial direction from the thread root to the portion under crest did not represent remarkable change in its value; (4) The residual stress of a bolt was somewhat decreased by fatigue loading on the condition of low mean stress; (5) The fatigue strength estimated using residual stress data showed the tendency of experimental results well. (author)

  2. Can we trust module-respect heuristics?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mo, Yuchang

    2013-01-01

    BDD (Binary Decision Diagrams) have proven to be a very efficient tool to assess Fault Trees. However, the size of BDD, and therefore the efficiency of the whole methodology, depends dramatically on the choice of variable ordering. The determination of the best variable ordering is intractable. Therefore, heuristics have been designed to select reasonably good variable orderings. One very important common feature for good static heuristics is to respect modules. In this paper, the notion of module-respect is studied in a systematic way. It is proved that under certain condition there always exists an optimal ordering that respects modules. This condition is that for each module there is always a smallest module BDD and each included module variable appears only once. On the other hand, it is shown that for the trees not satisfying the above sufficient condition the optimal orderings may not be able to be directly generated using module-respect heuristics, even when the shuffling strategy is used.

  3. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tversky, A; Kahneman, D

    1974-09-27

    This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty.

  4. Bayesian networks with examples in R

    CERN Document Server

    Scutari, Marco

    2014-01-01

    Introduction. The Discrete Case: Multinomial Bayesian Networks. The Continuous Case: Gaussian Bayesian Networks. More Complex Cases. Theory and Algorithms for Bayesian Networks. Real-World Applications of Bayesian Networks. Appendices. Bibliography.

  5. Creating and improving multi-threaded Geant4

    CERN Document Server

    Dong, Xin; Apostolakis, John; Jarp, Sverre; Nowak, Andrzej; Asai, Makoto; Brandt, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    We document the methods used to create the multi-threaded prototype Geant4MT from a sequential version of Geant4. We cover the Source-to-Source transformations applied, and discuss the process of verifying the correctness of the Geant4MT toolkit and applications based on it. Tools to ensure that the results of a transformed multi-threaded application are exactly equal to the original sequential version are under development. Stand-alone or simple applications can be adapted within 1-2 working days. Geant4MT is shown to scale linearly on an 80-core computer. In the special case of a single worker thread on one core, 30% overhead has been observed. We explain the reasons for this and the improvements introduced to reduce this overhead.

  6. Development of Thread-compatible Open Source Stack

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Lukas; Mars, Nidhal; Schappacher, Manuel; Sikora, Axel

    2017-07-01

    The Thread protocol is a recent development based on 6LoWPAN (IPv6 over IEEE 802.15.4), but with extensions regarding a more media independent approach, which - additionally - also promises true interoperability. To evaluate and analyse the operation of a Thread network a given open source 6LoWPAN stack for embedded devices (emb::6) has been extended in order to comply with the Thread specification. The implementation covers Mesh Link Establishment (MLE) and network layer functionality as well as 6LoWPAN mesh under routing mechanism based on MAC short addresses. The development has been verified on a virtualization platform and allows dynamical establishment of network topologies based on Thread’s partitioning algorithm.

  7. Intelligent System Design Using Hyper-Heuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelishia Pillay

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Determining the most appropriate search method or artificial intelligence technique to solve a problem is not always evident and usually requires implementation of the different approaches to ascertain this. In some instances a single approach may not be sufficient and hybridization of methods may be needed to find a solution. This process can be time consuming. The paper proposes the use of hyper-heuristics as a means of identifying which method or combination of approaches is needed to solve a problem. The research presented forms part of a larger initiative aimed at using hyper-heuristics to develop intelligent hybrid systems. As an initial step in this direction, this paper investigates this for classical artificial intelligence uninformed and informed search methods, namely depth first search, breadth first search, best first search, hill-climbing and the A* algorithm. The hyper-heuristic determines the search or combination of searches to use to solve the problem. An evolutionary algorithm hyper-heuristic is implemented for this purpose and its performance is evaluated in solving the 8-Puzzle, Towers of Hanoi and Blocks World problems. The hyper-heuristic employs a generational evolutionary algorithm which iteratively refines an initial population using tournament selection to select parents, which the mutation and crossover operators are applied to for regeneration. The hyper-heuristic was able to identify a search or combination of searches to produce solutions for the twenty 8-Puzzle, five Towers of Hanoi and five Blocks World problems. Furthermore, admissible solutions were produced for all problem instances.

  8. Heuristics for container loading of furniture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Egeblad, Jens; Garavelli, Claudio; Lisi, Stefano

    2010-01-01

    . In the studied company, the problem arises hundreds of times daily during transport planning. Instances may contain more than one hundred different items with irregular shapes. To solve this complex problem we apply a set of heuristics successively that each solve one part of the problem. Large items...... are combined in specific structures to ensure proper protection of the items during transportation and to simplify the problem. The solutions generated by the heuristic has an average loading utilization of 91.3% for the most general instances with average running times around 100 seconds....

  9. Heuristic extension of the Schwarzschild metric

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espinosa, J.M.

    1982-01-01

    The Schwarzschild solution of Einstein's equations of gravitation has several singularities. It is known that the singularity at r = 2Gm/c 2 is only apparent, a result of the coordinates in which the solution was found. Paradoxical results occuring near the singularity show the system of coordinates is incomplete. We introduce a simple, two-dimensional metric with an apparent singularity that makes it incomplete. By a straightforward, heuristic procedure we extend and complete this simple metric. We then use the same procedure to give a heuristic derivation of the Kruskal system of coordinates, which is known to extend the Schwarzschild manifold past its apparent singularity and produce a complete manifold

  10. Age Effects and Heuristics in Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besedeš, Tibor; Deck, Cary; Sarangi, Sudipta; Shor, Mikhael

    2012-05-01

    Using controlled experiments, we examine how individuals make choices when faced with multiple options. Choice tasks are designed to mimic the selection of health insurance, prescription drug, or retirement savings plans. In our experiment, available options can be objectively ranked allowing us to examine optimal decision making. First, the probability of a person selecting the optimal option declines as the number of options increases, with the decline being more pronounced for older subjects. Second, heuristics differ by age with older subjects relying more on suboptimal decision rules. In a heuristics validation experiment, older subjects make worse decisions than younger subjects.

  11. Bayesian methods in reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

    1991-11-01

    The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

  12. Development of Fire Resistant/Heat Resistant Sewing Thread

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    BAA, specifically, Special Focus  Area:  Textile   Technologies . Service Thread’s proposal is hereby accepted in its entirety by the  government unless...report documents work carried out by Service Thread to show that domestic technology exists which would reduce base fiber costs, versus current...otherwise revised by this contract and is incorporated by reference.  The  technological  area under investigation is FR/HR sewing threads using core

  13. Bayesian policy reuse

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosman, Benjamin

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Keywords Policy Reuse · Reinforcement Learning · Online Learning · Online Bandits · Transfer Learning · Bayesian Optimisation · Bayesian Decision Theory. 1 Introduction As robots and software agents are becoming more ubiquitous in many applications.... The agent has access to a library of policies (pi1, pi2 and pi3), and has previously experienced a set of task instances (τ1, τ2, τ3, τ4), as well as samples of the utilities of the library policies on these instances (the black dots indicate the means...

  14. Assessing Use of Cognitive Heuristic Representativeness in Clinical Reasoning

    OpenAIRE

    Payne, Velma L.; Crowley, Rebecca S.

    2008-01-01

    We performed a pilot study to investigate use of the cognitive heuristic Representativeness in clinical reasoning. We tested a set of tasks and assessments to determine whether subjects used the heuristics in reasoning, to obtain initial frequencies of heuristic use and related cognitive errors, and to collect cognitive process data using think-aloud techniques. The study investigates two aspects of the Representativeness heuristic - judging by perceived frequency and representativeness as ca...

  15. Automated generation of constructive ordering heuristics for educational timetabling

    OpenAIRE

    Pillay, Nelishia; Özcan, Ender

    2017-01-01

    Construction heuristics play an important role in solving combinatorial optimization problems. These heuristics are usually used to create an initial solution to the problem which is improved using optimization techniques such as metaheuristics. For examination timetabling and university course timetabling problems essentially graph colouring heuristics have been used for this purpose. The process of deriving heuristics manually for educational timetabling is a time consuming task. Furthermor...

  16. Adaptive selection of heuristics for improving exam timetables

    OpenAIRE

    Burke, Edmund; Qu, Rong; Soghier, Amr

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a hyper-heuristic approach which hybridises low-level heuristic moves to improve timetables. Exams which cause a soft-constraint violation in the timetable are ordered and rescheduled to produce a better timetable. It is observed that both the order in which exams are rescheduled and the heuristic moves used to reschedule the exams and improve the timetable affect the quality of the solution produced. After testing different combinations in a hybrid hyper-heuristic approac...

  17. Applying usability heuristics to radiotherapy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan, Alvita J.; Islam, Mohammad K.; Rosewall, Tara; Jaffray, David A.; Easty, Anthony C.; Cafazzo, Joseph A.

    2012-01-01

    Background and purpose: Heuristic evaluations have been used to evaluate safety of medical devices by identifying and assessing usability issues. Since radiotherapy treatment delivery systems often consist of multiple complex user-interfaces, a heuristic evaluation was conducted to assess the potential safety issues of such a system. Material and methods: A heuristic evaluation was conducted to evaluate the treatment delivery system at Princess Margaret Hospital (Toronto, Canada). Two independent evaluators identified usability issues with the user-interfaces and rated the severity of each issue. Results: The evaluators identified 75 usability issues in total. Eighteen of them were rated as high severity, indicating the potential to have a major impact on patient safety. A majority of issues were found on the record and verify system, and many were associated with the patient setup process. While the hospital has processes in place to ensure patient safety, recommendations were developed to further mitigate the risks of potential consequences. Conclusions: Heuristic evaluation is an efficient and inexpensive method that can be successfully applied to radiotherapy delivery systems to identify usability issues and improve patient safety. Although this study was conducted only at one site, the findings may have broad implications for the design of these systems.

  18. Can the inherence heuristic explain vitalistic reasoning?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastian, Brock

    2014-10-01

    Inherence is an important component of psychological essentialism. By drawing on vitalism as a way in which to explain this link, however, the authors appear to conflate causal explanations based on fixed features with those based on general causal forces. The disjuncture between these two types of explanatory principles highlights potential new avenues for the inherence heuristic.

  19. Fast heuristics for a dynamic paratransit problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cremers, M.L.A.G.; Klein Haneveld, W.K.; van der Vlerk, M.H.

    2008-01-01

    In a previous paper we developed a non-standard two-stage recourse model for the dynamic day-ahead paratransit planning problem. Two heuristics, which are frequently applied in the recourse model, contain many details which leads to large CPU times to solve instances of relatively small size. In

  20. A Heuristic for Improving Transmedia Exhibition Experience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selvadurai, Vashanth; Rosenstand, Claus Andreas Foss

    2017-01-01

    in the scientific field of designing transmedia experience in an exhibition context that links the pre- and post-activities to the actual visit (during-activities). The result of this study is a preliminary heuristic for establishing a relation between the platform and content complexity in transmedia exhibitions....

  1. Efficient heuristics for maximum common substructure search.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Englert, Péter; Kovács, Péter

    2015-05-26

    Maximum common substructure search is a computationally hard optimization problem with diverse applications in the field of cheminformatics, including similarity search, lead optimization, molecule alignment, and clustering. Most of these applications have strict constraints on running time, so heuristic methods are often preferred. However, the development of an algorithm that is both fast enough and accurate enough for most practical purposes is still a challenge. Moreover, in some applications, the quality of a common substructure depends not only on its size but also on various topological features of the one-to-one atom correspondence it defines. Two state-of-the-art heuristic algorithms for finding maximum common substructures have been implemented at ChemAxon Ltd., and effective heuristics have been developed to improve both their efficiency and the relevance of the atom mappings they provide. The implementations have been thoroughly evaluated and compared with existing solutions (KCOMBU and Indigo). The heuristics have been found to greatly improve the performance and applicability of the algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the applied methods and present the experimental results.

  2. Heuristics for speeding up gaze estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leimberg, Denis; Vester-Christensen, Martin; Ersbøll, Bjarne Kjær

    2005-01-01

    A deformable template method for eye tracking on full face images is presented. The strengths of the method are that it is fast and retains accuracy independently of the resolution. We compare the method with a state of the art active contour approach, showing that the heuristic method is more...

  3. The Heuristic Interpretation of Box Plots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lem, Stephanie; Onghena, Patrick; Verschaffel, Lieven; Van Dooren, Wim

    2013-01-01

    Box plots are frequently used, but are often misinterpreted by students. Especially the area of the box in box plots is often misinterpreted as representing number or proportion of observations, while it actually represents their density. In a first study, reaction time evidence was used to test whether heuristic reasoning underlies this…

  4. Heuristic Classification. Technical Report Number 12.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clancey, William J.

    A broad range of well-structured problems--embracing forms of diagnosis, catalog selection, and skeletal planning--are solved in expert computer systems by the method of heuristic classification. These programs have a characteristic inference structure that systematically relates data to a pre-enumerated set of solutions by abstraction, heuristic…

  5. Engineering applications of heuristic multilevel optimization methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barthelemy, Jean-Francois M.

    1989-01-01

    Some engineering applications of heuristic multilevel optimization methods are presented and the discussion focuses on the dependency matrix that indicates the relationship between problem functions and variables. Coordination of the subproblem optimizations is shown to be typically achieved through the use of exact or approximate sensitivity analysis. Areas for further development are identified.

  6. A Heuristic for the Teaching of Persuasion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schell, John F.

    Interpreting Aristotle's criteria for persuasive writing--ethos, logos, and pathos--as a concern for writer, language, and audience creates both an effective model for persuasive writing and a structure around which to organize discussions of relevant rhetorical issues. Use of this heuristic to analyze writing style, organization, and content…

  7. Fourth Graders' Heuristic Problem-Solving Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kil S.

    1982-01-01

    Eight boys and eight girls from a rural elementary school participated in the investigation. Specific heuristics were adopted from Polya; and the students selected represented two substages of Piaget's concrete operational stage. Five hypotheses were generated, based on observed results and the study's theoretical rationale. (MP)

  8. Heuristic Decision Making in Network Linking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J.W. Harmsen - Van Hout (Marjolein); B.G.C. Dellaert (Benedict); P.J.J. Herings (Jean-Jacques)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractNetwork formation among individuals constitutes an important part of many OR processes, but relatively little is known about how individuals make their linking decisions in networks. This article provides an investigation of heuristic effects in individual linking decisions for

  9. Investigating Heuristic Evaluation: A Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, Kate Haley; Bendoly, Laura

    When museum professionals speak of evaluating a web site, they primarily mean formative evaluation, and by that they primarily mean testing the usability of the site. In the for-profit world, usability testing is a multi-million dollar industry, while non-profits often rely on far too few dollars to do too much. Hence, heuristic evaluation is one…

  10. Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

    CERN Document Server

    Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...

  11. Heuristics Made Easy: An Effort-Reduction Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Anuj K.; Oppenheimer, Daniel M.

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the authors propose a new framework for understanding and studying heuristics. The authors posit that heuristics primarily serve the purpose of reducing the effort associated with a task. As such, the authors propose that heuristics can be classified according to a small set of effort-reduction principles. The authors use this…

  12. A Variable-Selection Heuristic for K-Means Clustering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brusco, Michael J.; Cradit, J. Dennis

    2001-01-01

    Presents a variable selection heuristic for nonhierarchical (K-means) cluster analysis based on the adjusted Rand index for measuring cluster recovery. Subjected the heuristic to Monte Carlo testing across more than 2,200 datasets. Results indicate that the heuristic is extremely effective at eliminating masking variables. (SLD)

  13. Heuristic Diagrams as a Tool to Teach History of Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamizo, Jose A.

    2012-01-01

    The graphic organizer called here heuristic diagram as an improvement of Gowin's Vee heuristic is proposed as a tool to teach history of science. Heuristic diagrams have the purpose of helping students (or teachers, or researchers) to understand their own research considering that asks and problem-solving are central to scientific activity. The…

  14. Bayesian logistic regression analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an

  15. Bayesian Dark Knowledge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Korattikara, A.; Rathod, V.; Murphy, K.; Welling, M.; Cortes, C.; Lawrence, N.D.; Lee, D.D.; Sugiyama, M.; Garnett, R.

    2015-01-01

    We consider the problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for deep neural networks, which is important in problem settings where we may have little data, and/ or where we need accurate posterior predictive densities p(y|x, D), e.g., for applications involving bandits or active learning. One simple

  16. Bayesian Geostatistical Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Diggle, Peter; Lophaven, Søren Nymand

    2006-01-01

    locations to, or deletion of locations from, an existing design, and prospective design, which consists of choosing positions for a new set of sampling locations. We propose a Bayesian design criterion which focuses on the goal of efficient spatial prediction whilst allowing for the fact that model...

  17. Bayesian statistical inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno De Finetti

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.

  18. Bayesian grid matching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael

    2003-01-01

    A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which r...

  19. Bayesian Independent Component Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winther, Ole; Petersen, Kaare Brandt

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...

  20. Bayesian Exponential Smoothing.

    OpenAIRE

    Forbes, C.S.; Snyder, R.D.; Shami, R.S.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, a Bayesian version of the exponential smoothing method of forecasting is proposed. The approach is based on a state space model containing only a single source of error for each time interval. This model allows us to improve current practices surrounding exponential smoothing by providing both point predictions and measures of the uncertainty surrounding them.

  1. Effective verification of confidentiality for multi-threaded programs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ngo, Minh Tri; Stoelinga, Mariëlle Ida Antoinette; Huisman, Marieke

    2014-01-01

    This paper studies how confidentiality properties of multi-threaded programs can be verified efficiently by a combination of newly developed and existing model checking algorithms. In particular, we study the verification of scheduler-specific observational determinism (SSOD), a property that

  2. A Multi-threaded Version of Field II

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

    2014-01-01

    A multi-threaded version of Field II has been developed, which automatically can use the multi-core capabil- ities of modern CPUs. The memory allocation routines were rewritten to minimize the number of dynamic allocations and to make pre-allocations possible for each thread. This ensures...... that the simulation job can be automatically partitioned and the interdependence between threads minimized. The new code has been compared to Field II version 3.22, October 27, 2013 (latest free-ware version). A 64 element 5 MHz focused array transducer was simulated. One million point scatterers randomly distributed...... in a plane of 20 x 50 mm (width x depth) with random Gaussian amplitudes were simulated using the command calc scat . Dual Intel Xeon CPU E5-2630 2.60 GHz CPUs were used under Ubuntu Linux 10.02 and Matlab version 2013b. Each CPU holds 6 cores with hyper-threading, corresponding to a total of 24 hyper...

  3. Weaving colourful threads: A tapestry of spirituality and mysticism

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-09-29

    Sep 29, 2015 ... contributing to a discussion of these issues, it is hoped that the threads of spirituality and ... has been described as an 'applause-word'2 and is widely used in medicine, business, education, ..... of morality in teaching spirituality: 'If we as educators […] ..... William James ([1902] 1982), is worth quoting here:.

  4. A Multi-Threaded Cryptographic Pseudorandom Number Generator Test Suite

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    bitcoin thieves, Google releases patch. (2013, Aug. 16). SiliconANGLE. [Online]. Available: http://siliconangle.com/blog/2013/ 08/16/android-crypto-prng...flaw-aided- bitcoin -thieves-google-releases-patch/ [5] M. Gondree. (2014, Sep. 28). NPS POSIX thread pool library. [Online]. Available: https

  5. The Automated Threaded Fastening Based on On-line Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Ivan Giannoccaro

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The principle of the thread fastenings have been known and used for decades with the purpose of joining one component to another. Threaded fastenings are popular because they permit easy disassembly for maintenance, repair, relocation and recycling. Screw insertions are typically carried out manually. It is a difficult problem to automat. As a result there is very little published research on automating threaded fastenings, and most research on automated assembly focus on the peg-in-hole assembly problem. This paper investigates the problem of automated monitoring of the screw insertion process. The monitoring problem deals with predicting integrity of a threaded insertion, based on the torque vs. insertion depth curve generated during the insertions. The authors have developed an analytical model to predict the torque signature signals during self-tapping screw insertions. However, the model requires parameters on the screw dimensions and plate material properties are difficult to measure. This paper presents a study on on-line identification during screw fastenings. An identification methodology for two unknown parameter estimation during a self-tapping screw insertion process is presented. It is shown that friction and screw properties required by the model can be reliably estimated on-line. Experimental results are presented to validate the identification procedure.

  6. Structural Analysis of Taper-Threaded Rebar Couplers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu, Seok Jae; Kwon, Hyuk Mo; Seo, Sang Hwan

    2014-01-01

    A number of rebar couplers were developed by the leading companies. The information about the products is available from the company website. However, the theory on the taper-threaded coupler is not available. In this paper, the mechanics of the taper-thread was developed to understand the effect of the tightening torque. Structural analysis of our own newly developed rebar coupler was done to improve the strength of the coupler. The taper-threaded rebar coupler was analyzed. The tightening of the rebar into the coupler developed a circumferential stress in the coupler. The circumferential stress depends on the coefficient of friction as well as the tightening torque. The circumferential stress is less than the allowable stress 20 kgf/mm 2 of the material for the coefficient of friction greater than 0.1. The tightening of the rebar into the coupler and the subsequent tensioning was simulated using CATIA. Linear elastic analysis considering contact was done. The tightening of the taper-threaded rebar developed a uniform stress distribution in both standard coupler and position coupler. On the other hand, the tightening of the nut in the axial direction developed a non-uniform stress distribution. Similarly the tensioning also developed a non-uniform stress distribution

  7. Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGillivray, Brian H

    2014-04-01

    Lay perceptions of risk appear rooted more in heuristics than in reason. A major concern of the risk regulation literature is that such "error-strewn" perceptions may be replicated in policy, as governments respond to the (mis)fears of the citizenry. This has led many to advocate a relatively technocratic approach to regulating risk, characterized by high reliance on formal risk and cost-benefit analysis. However, through two studies of chemicals regulation, we show that the formal assessment of risk is pervaded by its own set of heuristics. These include rules to categorize potential threats, define what constitutes valid data, guide causal inference, and to select and apply formal models. Some of these heuristics lay claim to theoretical or empirical justifications, others are more back-of-the-envelope calculations, while still more purport not to reflect some truth but simply to constrain discretion or perform a desk-clearing function. These heuristics can be understood as a way of authenticating or formalizing risk assessment as a scientific practice, representing a series of rules for bounding problems, collecting data, and interpreting evidence (a methodology). Heuristics are indispensable elements of induction. And so they are not problematic per se, but they can become so when treated as laws rather than as contingent and provisional rules. Pitfalls include the potential for systematic error, masking uncertainties, strategic manipulation, and entrenchment. Our central claim is that by studying the rules of risk assessment qua rules, we develop a novel representation of the methods, conventions, and biases of the prior art. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Heuristic Evaluation of E-Learning Courses: A Comparative Analysis of Two E-Learning Heuristic Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaharias, Panagiotis; Koutsabasis, Panayiotis

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to discuss heuristic evaluation as a method for evaluating e-learning courses and applications and more specifically to investigate the applicability and empirical use of two customized e-learning heuristic protocols. Design/methodology/approach: Two representative e-learning heuristic protocols were chosen…

  9. Bayesian optimization for materials science

    CERN Document Server

    Packwood, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science. Bayesian optimization is a promising global optimization technique that originates in the field of machine learning and is starting to gain attention in materials science. For the purpose of materials design, Bayesian optimization can be used to predict new materials with novel properties without extensive screening of candidate materials. For the purpose of computational materials science, Bayesian optimization can be incorporated into first-principles calculations to perform efficient, global structure optimizations. While re...

  10. Identifying product development crises: The potential of adaptive heuristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Münzberger, C.; Stingl, Verena; Oehmen, Josef

    2017-01-01

    This paper introduces adaptive heuristics as a tool to identify crises in design projects and highlights potential applications of these heuristics as decision support tool for crisis identification. Crises may emerge slowly or suddenly, and often have ambiguous signals. Thus the identification...... for the application of heuristics in design sciences. To achieve this, the paper compares crises to 'business as usual', and presents sixteen indicators for emerging crises. These indicators are potential cues for adaptive heuristics. Specifically three adaptive heuristics, One-single-cue, Fast-and-Frugal-Trees...

  11. Learning process mapping heuristics under stochastic sampling overheads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ieumwananonthachai, Arthur; Wah, Benjamin W.

    1991-01-01

    A statistical method was developed previously for improving process mapping heuristics. The method systematically explores the space of possible heuristics under a specified time constraint. Its goal is to get the best possible heuristics while trading between the solution quality of the process mapping heuristics and their execution time. The statistical selection method is extended to take into consideration the variations in the amount of time used to evaluate heuristics on a problem instance. The improvement in performance is presented using the more realistic assumption along with some methods that alleviate the additional complexity.

  12. Assessing the use of cognitive heuristic representativeness in clinical reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Velma L; Crowley, Rebecca S; Crowley, Rebecca

    2008-11-06

    We performed a pilot study to investigate use of the cognitive heuristic Representativeness in clinical reasoning. We tested a set of tasks and assessments to determine whether subjects used the heuristics in reasoning, to obtain initial frequencies of heuristic use and related cognitive errors, and to collect cognitive process data using think-aloud techniques. The study investigates two aspects of the Representativeness heuristic - judging by perceived frequency and representativeness as causal beliefs. Results show that subjects apply both aspects of the heuristic during reasoning, and make errors related to misapplication of these heuristics. Subjects in this study rarely used base rates, showed significant variability in their recall of base rates, demonstrated limited ability to use provided base rates, and favored causal data in diagnosis. We conclude that the tasks and assessments we have developed provide a suitable test-bed to study the cognitive processes underlying heuristic errors.

  13. Assessing Use of Cognitive Heuristic Representativeness in Clinical Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Velma L.; Crowley, Rebecca S.

    2008-01-01

    We performed a pilot study to investigate use of the cognitive heuristic Representativeness in clinical reasoning. We tested a set of tasks and assessments to determine whether subjects used the heuristics in reasoning, to obtain initial frequencies of heuristic use and related cognitive errors, and to collect cognitive process data using think-aloud techniques. The study investigates two aspects of the Representativeness heuristic - judging by perceived frequency and representativeness as causal beliefs. Results show that subjects apply both aspects of the heuristic during reasoning, and make errors related to misapplication of these heuristics. Subjects in this study rarely used base rates, showed significant variability in their recall of base rates, demonstrated limited ability to use provided base rates, and favored causal data in diagnosis. We conclude that the tasks and assessments we have developed provide a suitable test-bed to study the cognitive processes underlying heuristic errors. PMID:18999140

  14. Reconsidering "evidence" for fast-and-frugal heuristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbig, Benjamin E

    2010-12-01

    In several recent reviews, authors have argued for the pervasive use of fast-and-frugal heuristics in human judgment. They have provided an overview of heuristics and have reiterated findings corroborating that such heuristics can be very valid strategies leading to high accuracy. They also have reviewed previous work that implies that simple heuristics are actually used by decision makers. Unfortunately, concerning the latter point, these reviews appear to be somewhat incomplete. More important, previous conclusions have been derived from investigations that bear some noteworthy methodological limitations. I demonstrate these by proposing a new heuristic and provide some novel critical findings. Also, I review some of the relevant literature often not-or only partially-considered. Overall, although some fast-and-frugal heuristics indeed seem to predict behavior at times, there is little to no evidence for others. More generally, the empirical evidence available does not warrant the conclusion that heuristics are pervasively used.

  15. The mathematical model of thread unrolling from a bobbin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Tenenbaum

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available I. Introduction The subject of research in this work is a process of thread unrolling from a bobbin. The mathematical model of this process considering motion of thread peace on a bobbin and unrolled peace is proposed. The dimension of system of differential equations for this model is constant during deploying.The relevance to simulate this process for design of Heliogyro-like solar sails (Heliogyro [1], BMSTU-Sail [2] is proved. The paper briefly characterizes a blade for such solar sail as a simulation object. It proves the possibility for using a flexible thread model for a long blade because of very small blade thickness (less than 10 μm [3] relative to blade width and the phenomena of Koriolis forces [4] that lead to buckling failure of blade flatness.The major features of the proposed model are:-- simulated as a motion of the thread piece both being on a bobbin and its unrolled peace;-- splitting a thread length into nodes does not depend on the demand to ensure a sufficient number of nodes on a single thread turn on the coil;-- because of avoiding a problem of contact between the thread and bobbin a stable integration of motion equations is provided by the conventional Runge-Kutta method of fourth order with a constant step [5];-- in the course of solution the number of freedom degrees (number of motion equation is constant, thereby simplifying a calculation algorithm.The closest mathematical model is proposed in [6].The scientific novelty of this research is the approach to solving the problem of unrolling thread from a bobbin using a constant number of motion equations while preserving real kinematics coiling process.II. Problem formulationIn this section the problem of unrolling thread with length L from a bobbin of radius r is posed while any kind of forces are acting on the unrolled peace of thread. Moreover, the law of bobbin rotation φ(t assumed to be known with the proviso that the model can be modified if φ(t is the result of

  16. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  17. Bayesian community detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel N

    2012-01-01

    Many networks of scientific interest naturally decompose into clusters or communities with comparatively fewer external than internal links; however, current Bayesian models of network communities do not exert this intuitive notion of communities. We formulate a nonparametric Bayesian model...... for community detection consistent with an intuitive definition of communities and present a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for inferring the community structure. A Matlab toolbox with the proposed inference procedure is available for download. On synthetic and real networks, our model detects communities...... consistent with ground truth, and on real networks, it outperforms existing approaches in predicting missing links. This suggests that community structure is an important structural property of networks that should be explicitly modeled....

  18. Approximate Bayesian recursive estimation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kárný, Miroslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 285, č. 1 (2014), s. 100-111 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Approximate parameter estimation * Bayesian recursive estimation * Kullback–Leibler divergence * Forgetting Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.038, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/AS/karny-0425539.pdf

  19. Subjective Bayesian Beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.

    2015-01-01

    A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimenta...... economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule....

  20. Bayesian Hypothesis Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, Stephen A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sigeti, David E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-11-15

    These are a set of slides about Bayesian hypothesis testing, where many hypotheses are tested. The conclusions are the following: The value of the Bayes factor obtained when using the median of the posterior marginal is almost the minimum value of the Bayes factor. The value of τ2 which minimizes the Bayes factor is a reasonable choice for this parameter. This allows a likelihood ratio to be computed with is the least favorable to H0.

  1. Introduction to Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Koch, Karl-Rudolf

    2007-01-01

    This book presents Bayes' theorem, the estimation of unknown parameters, the determination of confidence regions and the derivation of tests of hypotheses for the unknown parameters. It does so in a simple manner that is easy to comprehend. The book compares traditional and Bayesian methods with the rules of probability presented in a logical way allowing an intuitive understanding of random variables and their probability distributions to be formed.

  2. A System for Automatically Generating Scheduling Heuristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Robert

    1996-01-01

    The goal of this research is to improve the performance of automated schedulers by designing and implementing an algorithm by automatically generating heuristics by selecting a schedule. The particular application selected by applying this method solves the problem of scheduling telescope observations, and is called the Associate Principal Astronomer. The input to the APA scheduler is a set of observation requests submitted by one or more astronomers. Each observation request specifies an observation program as well as scheduling constraints and preferences associated with the program. The scheduler employs greedy heuristic search to synthesize a schedule that satisfies all hard constraints of the domain and achieves a good score with respect to soft constraints expressed as an objective function established by an astronomer-user.

  3. Heuristics and Cognitive Error in Medical Imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itri, Jason N; Patel, Sohil H

    2018-05-01

    The field of cognitive science has provided important insights into mental processes underlying the interpretation of imaging examinations. Despite these insights, diagnostic error remains a major obstacle in the goal to improve quality in radiology. In this article, we describe several types of cognitive bias that lead to diagnostic errors in imaging and discuss approaches to mitigate cognitive biases and diagnostic error. Radiologists rely on heuristic principles to reduce complex tasks of assessing probabilities and predicting values into simpler judgmental operations. These mental shortcuts allow rapid problem solving based on assumptions and past experiences. Heuristics used in the interpretation of imaging studies are generally helpful but can sometimes result in cognitive biases that lead to significant errors. An understanding of the causes of cognitive biases can lead to the development of educational content and systematic improvements that mitigate errors and improve the quality of care provided by radiologists.

  4. Heuristic program to design Relational Databases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Pereira Rosa

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The great development of today’s world determines that the world level of information increases day after day, however, the time allowed to transmit this information in the classrooms has not changed. Thus, the rational work in this respect is more than necessary. Besides, if for the solution of a given type of problem we do not have a working algorism, we have, first to look for a correct solution, then the heuristic programs are of paramount importance to succeed in these aspects. Having into consideration that the design of the database is, essentially, a process of problem resolution, this article aims at proposing a heuristic program for the design of the relating database.

  5. Bayesian ARTMAP for regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasu, L M; Andonie, R

    2013-10-01

    Bayesian ARTMAP (BA) is a recently introduced neural architecture which uses a combination of Fuzzy ARTMAP competitive learning and Bayesian learning. Training is generally performed online, in a single-epoch. During training, BA creates input data clusters as Gaussian categories, and also infers the conditional probabilities between input patterns and categories, and between categories and classes. During prediction, BA uses Bayesian posterior probability estimation. So far, BA was used only for classification. The goal of this paper is to analyze the efficiency of BA for regression problems. Our contributions are: (i) we generalize the BA algorithm using the clustering functionality of both ART modules, and name it BA for Regression (BAR); (ii) we prove that BAR is a universal approximator with the best approximation property. In other words, BAR approximates arbitrarily well any continuous function (universal approximation) and, for every given continuous function, there is one in the set of BAR approximators situated at minimum distance (best approximation); (iii) we experimentally compare the online trained BAR with several neural models, on the following standard regression benchmarks: CPU Computer Hardware, Boston Housing, Wisconsin Breast Cancer, and Communities and Crime. Our results show that BAR is an appropriate tool for regression tasks, both for theoretical and practical reasons. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Bayesian theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A

    2013-01-01

    The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...

  7. Heuristic Evaluation for Novice Programming Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Kölling, Michael; McKay, Fraser

    2016-01-01

    The past few years has seen a proliferation of novice programming tools. The availability of a large number of systems has made it difficult for many users to choose among them. Even for education researchers, comparing the relative quality of these tools, or judging their respective suitability for a given context, is hard in many instances. For designers of such systems, assessing the respective quality of competing design decisions can be equally difficult.\\ud Heuristic evaluation provides...

  8. Heuristics for the economic dispatch problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flores, Benjamin Carpio [Centro Nacional de Controle de Energia (CENACE), Mexico, D.F. (Mexico). Dept. de Planificacion Economica de Largo Plazo], E-mail: benjamin.carpo@cfe.gob.mx; Laureano Cruces, A L; Lopez Bracho, R; Ramirez Rodriguez, J. [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana (UAM), Mexico, D.F. (Brazil). Dept. de Sistemas], Emails: clc@correo.azc.uam.mx, rlb@correo.azc.uam.mx, jararo@correo.azc.uam.mx

    2009-07-01

    This paper presents GRASP (Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure), Simulated Annealing (SAA), Genetic (GA), and Hybrid Genetic (HGA) Algorithms for the economic dispatch problem (EDP), considering non-convex cost functions and dead zones the only restrictions, showing the results obtained. We also present parameter settings that are specifically applicable to the EDP, and a comparative table of results for each heuristic. It is shown that these methods outperform the classical methods without the need to assume convexity of the target function. (author)

  9. Entrepreneurial Learning, Heuristics and Venture Creation

    OpenAIRE

    RAUF, MIAN SHAMS; ZAINULLAH, MOHAMMAD

    2009-01-01

    After rigorous criticism on trait approach and with the emergence of behavioral approach in entrepreneurship during 1980s, the researchers started to introduce learning and cognitive theories in entrepreneurship to describe and explain the dynamic nature of entrepreneurship. Many researchers have described venture creation as a core and the single most important element of entrepreneurship. This thesis will discuss and present the role of entrepreneurial learning and heuristics in venture cre...

  10. Exact and Heuristic Algorithms for Runway Scheduling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Waqar A.; Jung, Yoon C.

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores the Single Runway Scheduling (SRS) problem with arrivals, departures, and crossing aircraft on the airport surface. Constraints for wake vortex separations, departure area navigation separations and departure time window restrictions are explicitly considered. The main objective of this research is to develop exact and heuristic based algorithms that can be used in real-time decision support tools for Air Traffic Control Tower (ATCT) controllers. The paper provides a multi-objective dynamic programming (DP) based algorithm that finds the exact solution to the SRS problem, but may prove unusable for application in real-time environment due to large computation times for moderate sized problems. We next propose a second algorithm that uses heuristics to restrict the search space for the DP based algorithm. A third algorithm based on a combination of insertion and local search (ILS) heuristics is then presented. Simulation conducted for the east side of Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport allows comparison of the three proposed algorithms and indicates that the ILS algorithm performs favorably in its ability to find efficient solutions and its computation times.

  11. The affect heuristic in occupational safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savadori, Lucia; Caovilla, Jessica; Zaniboni, Sara; Fraccaroli, Franco

    2015-07-08

    The affect heuristic is a rule of thumb according to which, in the process of making a judgment or decision, people use affect as a cue. If a stimulus elicits positive affect then risks associated to that stimulus are viewed as low and benefits as high; conversely, if the stimulus elicits negative affect, then risks are perceived as high and benefits as low. The basic tenet of this study is that affect heuristic guides worker's judgment and decision making in a risk situation. The more the worker likes her/his organization the less she/he will perceive the risks as high. A sample of 115 employers and 65 employees working in small family agricultural businesses completed a questionnaire measuring perceived safety costs, psychological safety climate, affective commitment and safety compliance. A multi-sample structural analysis supported the thesis that safety compliance can be explained through an affect-based heuristic reasoning, but only for employers. Positive affective commitment towards their family business reduced employers' compliance with safety procedures by increasing the perceived cost of implementing them.

  12. A general heuristic for genome rearrangement problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Ulisses; Galvão, Gustavo Rodrigues; Lintzmayer, Carla Négri; Dias, Zanoni

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, we present a general heuristic for several problems in the genome rearrangement field. Our heuristic does not solve any problem directly, it is rather used to improve the solutions provided by any non-optimal algorithm that solve them. Therefore, we have implemented several algorithms described in the literature and several algorithms developed by ourselves. As a whole, we implemented 23 algorithms for 9 well known problems in the genome rearrangement field. A total of 13 algorithms were implemented for problems that use the notions of prefix and suffix operations. In addition, we worked on 5 algorithms for the classic problem of sorting by transposition and we conclude the experiments by presenting results for 3 approximation algorithms for the sorting by reversals and transpositions problem and 2 approximation algorithms for the sorting by reversals problem. Another algorithm with better approximation ratio can be found for the last genome rearrangement problem, but it is purely theoretical with no practical implementation. The algorithms we implemented in addition to our heuristic lead to the best practical results in each case. In particular, we were able to improve results on the sorting by transpositions problem, which is a very special case because many efforts have been made to generate algorithms with good results in practice and some of these algorithms provide results that equal the optimum solutions in many cases. Our source codes and benchmarks are freely available upon request from the authors so that it will be easier to compare new approaches against our results.

  13. The recognition heuristic: A decade of research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerd Gigerenzer

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The recognition heuristic exploits the basic psychological capacity for recognition in order to make inferences about unknown quantities in the world. In this article, we review and clarify issues that emerged from our initial work (Goldstein and Gigerenzer, 1999, 2002, including the distinction between a recognition and an evaluation process. There is now considerable evidence that (i the recognition heuristic predicts the inferences of a substantial proportion of individuals consistently, even in the presence of one or more contradicting cues, (ii people are adaptive decision makers in that accordance increases with larger recognition validity and decreases in situations when the validity is low or wholly indeterminable, and (iii in the presence of contradicting cues, some individuals appear to select different strategies. Little is known about these individual differences, or how to precisely model the alternative strategies. Although some researchers have attributed judgments inconsistent with the use of the recognition heuristic to compensatory processing, little research on such compensatory models has been reported. We discuss extensions of the recognition model, open questions, unanticipated results, and the surprising predictive power of recognition in forecasting.

  14. Multi-thread Parallel Speech Recognition for Mobile Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LOJKA Martin

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the server based solution of the multi-thread large vocabulary automatic speech recognition engine is described along with the Android OS and HTML5 practical application examples. The basic idea was to bring speech recognition available for full variety of applications for computers and especially for mobile devices. The speech recognition engine should be independent of commercial products and services (where the dictionary could not be modified. Using of third-party services could be also a security and privacy problem in specific applications, when the unsecured audio data could not be sent to uncontrolled environments (voice data transferred to servers around the globe. Using our experience with speech recognition applications, we have been able to construct a multi-thread speech recognition serverbased solution designed for simple applications interface (API to speech recognition engine modified to specific needs of particular application.

  15. Adaptive control in multi-threaded iterated integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doncker, Elise de; Yuasa, Fukuko

    2013-01-01

    In recent years we have developed a technique for the direct computation of Feynman loop-integrals, which are notorious for the occurrence of integrand singularities. Especially for handling singularities in the interior of the domain, we approximate the iterated integral using an adaptive algorithm in the coordinate directions. We present a novel multi-core parallelization scheme for adaptive multivariate integration, by assigning threads to the rule evaluations in the outer dimensions of the iterated integral. The method ensures a large parallel granularity as each function evaluation by itself comprises an integral over the lower dimensions, while the application of the threads is governed by the adaptive control in the outer level. We give computational results for a test set of 3- to 6-dimensional integrals, where several problems exhibit a loop integral behavior.

  16. Method of measuring misalignment of welded threaded connections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kasatkin, V I

    1981-01-01

    A method is presented for measuring misalignment of welded connections by special attachment, superposed indicator. Requirements are analyzed for welding the threaded sleeves established by specifications. It is shown that measurement of the slack only in one section on the selected base is insufficient for monitoring the geometry of the connected pipe parts. It is suggested that in order to evaluate the misalignment the concept of total slack be used and formulas are derived to define it.

  17. A PREDICTABLE MULTI-THREADED MAIN-MEMORY STORAGE MANAGER

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    This paper introduces the design and implementation of a predictable multi-threaded main-memo- ry storage manager (CS20), and emphasizes the database service mediator(DSM), an operation prediction model using exponential averaging. The memory manager, indexing, as well as lock manager in CS20 are also presented briefly. CS20 has been embedded in a mobile telecommunication service system. Practice showed, DSM effectively controls system load and hence improves the real-time characteristics of data accessing.

  18. "The Gaze Heuristic:" Biography of an Adaptively Rational Decision Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Robert P

    2017-04-01

    This article is a case study that describes the natural and human history of the gaze heuristic. The gaze heuristic is an interception heuristic that utilizes a single input (deviation from a constant angle of approach) repeatedly as a task is performed. Its architecture, advantages, and limitations are described in detail. A history of the gaze heuristic is then presented. In natural history, the gaze heuristic is the only known technique used by predators to intercept prey. In human history the gaze heuristic was discovered accidentally by Royal Air Force (RAF) fighter command just prior to World War II. As it was never discovered by the Luftwaffe, the technique conferred a decisive advantage upon the RAF throughout the war. After the end of the war in America, German technology was combined with the British heuristic to create the Sidewinder AIM9 missile, the most successful autonomous weapon ever built. There are no plans to withdraw it or replace its guiding gaze heuristic. The case study demonstrates that the gaze heuristic is a specific heuristic type that takes a single best input at the best time (take the best 2 ). Its use is an adaptively rational response to specific, rapidly evolving decision environments that has allowed those animals/humans/machines who use it to survive, prosper, and multiply relative to those who do not. Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  19. Compliant threads maximize spider silk connection strength and toughness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Avery; Pugno, Nicola M.; Cranford, Steven W.

    2014-01-01

    Millions of years of evolution have adapted spider webs to achieve a range of functionalities, including the well-known capture of prey, with efficient use of material. One feature that has escaped extensive investigation is the silk-on-silk connection joints within spider webs, particularly from a structural mechanics perspective. We report a joint theoretical and computational analysis of an idealized silk-on-silk fibre junction. By modifying the theory of multiple peeling, we quantitatively compare the performance of the system while systematically increasing the rigidity of the anchor thread, by both scaling the stress–strain response and the introduction of an applied pre-strain. The results of our study indicate that compliance is a virtue—the more extensible the anchorage, the tougher and stronger the connection becomes. In consideration of the theoretical model, in comparison with rigid substrates, a compliant anchorage enormously increases the effective adhesion strength (work required to detach), independent of the adhered thread itself, attributed to a nonlinear alignment between thread and anchor (contact peeling angle). The results can direct novel engineering design principles to achieve possible load transfer from compliant fibre-to-fibre anchorages, be they silk-on-silk or another, as-yet undeveloped, system. PMID:25008083

  20. Ion beam analysis of golden threads from Romanian medieval textiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balta, Z.I.; Csedreki, L.; Furu, E.; Cretu, I.; Huszánk, R.; Lupu, M.; Török, Z.; Kertész, Z.; Szikszai, Z.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, metal threads from Romanian religious embroideries and precious velvet brocades dated from 15th to 18th century were analyzed by using IBA methods (PIXE and RBS) which, in comparison to the traditional analytical techniques (XRF, EDS), allowed the detection of their structures and accurate identification of the trace elements (detection limits of few tens of ppm). PIXE results confirmed that both types of the metal threads studied – wires and strips – have layered structures being made of fine silver, refined by cupellation, and gilded most probably with pure gold, and not of Au–Ag alloy, or gilded Ag–Cu alloy or Au–Ag–Cu alloy, as resulted from the previously performed SEM-EDS analysis. Trace elements of historical interest like lead, mercury and bismuth have been also possible to be detected by PIXE. The resulting elemental maps allowed us to identify the areas from which the metal thread structure and quantitative composition could be accurately determined. RBS measurements revealed that the gilding layer is separated from the silver bulk by an interface layer resulting through atomic diffusion of silver into the gold, which lead to the conclusion that the methods used for gilding were probably either the diffusion bonding or the fire gilding. The gilding layers thicknesses were estimated by PIXE with the GUPIX software and also determined from RBS measurements

  1. Ion beam analysis of golden threads from Romanian medieval textiles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Balta, Z.I., E-mail: balta_z_i@yahoo.com [National History Museum of Romania, Calea Victoriei 12, Sector 3, Bucharest (Romania); Csedreki, L.; Furu, E. [Institute for Nuclear Research, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, H-4001 Debrecen, P.O. Box 51 (Hungary); Cretu, I. [National Art Museum of Romania, Calea Victoriei 49-53, Sector 1, Bucharest (Romania); Huszánk, R. [Institute for Nuclear Research, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, H-4001 Debrecen, P.O. Box 51 (Hungary); Lupu, M. [National Art Museum of Romania, Calea Victoriei 49-53, Sector 1, Bucharest (Romania); Török, Z.; Kertész, Z.; Szikszai, Z. [Institute for Nuclear Research, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, H-4001 Debrecen, P.O. Box 51 (Hungary)

    2015-04-01

    In this study, metal threads from Romanian religious embroideries and precious velvet brocades dated from 15th to 18th century were analyzed by using IBA methods (PIXE and RBS) which, in comparison to the traditional analytical techniques (XRF, EDS), allowed the detection of their structures and accurate identification of the trace elements (detection limits of few tens of ppm). PIXE results confirmed that both types of the metal threads studied – wires and strips – have layered structures being made of fine silver, refined by cupellation, and gilded most probably with pure gold, and not of Au–Ag alloy, or gilded Ag–Cu alloy or Au–Ag–Cu alloy, as resulted from the previously performed SEM-EDS analysis. Trace elements of historical interest like lead, mercury and bismuth have been also possible to be detected by PIXE. The resulting elemental maps allowed us to identify the areas from which the metal thread structure and quantitative composition could be accurately determined. RBS measurements revealed that the gilding layer is separated from the silver bulk by an interface layer resulting through atomic diffusion of silver into the gold, which lead to the conclusion that the methods used for gilding were probably either the diffusion bonding or the fire gilding. The gilding layers thicknesses were estimated by PIXE with the GUPIX software and also determined from RBS measurements.

  2. Rapid and reliable protein structure determination via chemical shift threading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hafsa, Noor E; Berjanskii, Mark V; Arndt, David; Wishart, David S

    2018-01-01

    Protein structure determination using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy can be both time-consuming and labor intensive. Here we demonstrate how chemical shift threading can permit rapid, robust, and accurate protein structure determination using only chemical shift data. Threading is a relatively old bioinformatics technique that uses a combination of sequence information and predicted (or experimentally acquired) low-resolution structural data to generate high-resolution 3D protein structures. The key motivations behind using NMR chemical shifts for protein threading lie in the fact that they are easy to measure, they are available prior to 3D structure determination, and they contain vital structural information. The method we have developed uses not only sequence and chemical shift similarity but also chemical shift-derived secondary structure, shift-derived super-secondary structure, and shift-derived accessible surface area to generate a high quality protein structure regardless of the sequence similarity (or lack thereof) to a known structure already in the PDB. The method (called E-Thrifty) was found to be very fast (often chemical shift refinement, these results suggest that protein structure determination, using only NMR chemical shifts, is becoming increasingly practical and reliable. E-Thrifty is available as a web server at http://ethrifty.ca .

  3. Simulation of LHC events on a millions threads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Childers, J. T.; Uram, T. D.; LeCompte, T. J.; Papka, M. E.; Benjamin, D. P.

    2015-12-01

    Demand for Grid resources is expected to double during LHC Run II as compared to Run I; the capacity of the Grid, however, will not double. The HEP community must consider how to bridge this computing gap by targeting larger compute resources and using the available compute resources as efficiently as possible. Argonne's Mira, the fifth fastest supercomputer in the world, can run roughly five times the number of parallel processes that the ATLAS experiment typically uses on the Grid. We ported Alpgen, a serial x86 code, to run as a parallel application under MPI on the Blue Gene/Q architecture. By analysis of the Alpgen code, we reduced the memory footprint to allow running 64 threads per node, utilizing the four hardware threads available per core on the PowerPC A2 processor. Event generation and unweighting, typically run as independent serial phases, are coupled together in a single job in this scenario, reducing intermediate writes to the filesystem. By these optimizations, we have successfully run LHC proton-proton physics event generation at the scale of a million threads, filling two-thirds of Mira.

  4. Penjadwalan Produksi Garment Menggunakan Algoritma Heuristic Pour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rizal Rachman

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstrak Penjadwalan merupakan suatu kegiatan pengalokasian sumber daya yang terbatas untuk mengerjakan sejumlah pekerjaan. Proses penjadwalan timbul jika terdapat keterbatasan sumber daya yang dimiliki, karena pada saat ini perusahaan menerapkan sistem penjadwalan manual dimana dengan penjadwalan tersebut masih terdapat beberapa produk yang terlewati sehingga menyebabkan keterlambatan dalam proses produksi, aturan ini sering tidak menguntungkan bagi order yang membutuhkan waktu proses pendek karena apabila order itu berada dibelakang antrian maka harus menunggu lama sebelum diproses dan menyebabkan waktu penyelesaian seluruh order menjadi panjang, sehingga diperlukan adanya pengaturan sumber-sumber daya yang ada secara efisien. Adapun dasar perhitungan Penjadwalan dengan menggunakan algoritma Heuristic Pour. Tahapan-tahapan penelitian terdiri dari pengumpulan data, perhitungan waktu standar, perhitungan total waktu proses berdasarkan job, penjadwalan dengan metode awal perusahaan, penjadwalan dengan metode Heuristik Pour. Berdasarkan hasil penjadwalan menggunakan Heuristik Pour diperoleh penghematan dibanding dengan metode perusahaan saat ini, sehingga dapat digunakan sebagai alternatif metode dalam melakukan penjadwalan pengerjaan proses produksi di perusahaan Garment tersebut. Kata kunci: Penjadwalan Produksi, Algoritma, Heuristic Pour. Abstract Scheduling is a limited resource allocation activity to do a number of jobs. The scheduling process arises if there are limited resources available, because at this time the company implement a manual scheduling system where the scheduling is still there are some products passed so as to cause delays in the production process, this rule is often not profitable for orders that require short processing time because if the order is behind the queue then it must wait a long time before it is processed and cause the completion time of all orders to be long, so it is necessary to regulate the existing

  5. Security threads: effective security devices in the past, present, and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolpert, Gary R.

    2002-04-01

    Security threads were first used to secure banknotes in the mid 1800's. The key to their anti-counterfeiting success was the fact that by being embedded in the paper, they became an integral part of the banknote substrate. Today, all major currencies still utilize this effective security feature. Technological developments have allowed security threads to evolve from a feature authenticated by only visual means to devices that incorporate both visual and machine detectable components. When viewed from the perspective of a thread being a carrier of various security technologies and the fact that they can be incorporated into the core substrate of banknotes, documents, labels, packaging and some high valued articles, it is clear that security threads will remain as effective security devices well into the future. This paper discusses a brief historical background of security threads, current visual and machine authentication technologies incorporated into threads today and a look to the future of threads as effective security devices.

  6. Bayesian analysis in plant pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mila, A L; Carriquiry, A L

    2004-09-01

    ABSTRACT Bayesian methods are currently much discussed and applied in several disciplines from molecular biology to engineering. Bayesian inference is the process of fitting a probability model to a set of data and summarizing the results via probability distributions on the parameters of the model and unobserved quantities such as predictions for new observations. In this paper, after a short introduction of Bayesian inference, we present the basic features of Bayesian methodology using examples from sequencing genomic fragments and analyzing microarray gene-expressing levels, reconstructing disease maps, and designing experiments.

  7. A Meta-Heuristic Regression-Based Feature Selection for Predictive Analytics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bharat Singh

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A high-dimensional feature selection having a very large number of features with an optimal feature subset is an NP-complete problem. Because conventional optimization techniques are unable to tackle large-scale feature selection problems, meta-heuristic algorithms are widely used. In this paper, we propose a particle swarm optimization technique while utilizing regression techniques for feature selection. We then use the selected features to classify the data. Classification accuracy is used as a criterion to evaluate classifier performance, and classification is accomplished through the use of k-nearest neighbour (KNN and Bayesian techniques. Various high dimensional data sets are used to evaluate the usefulness of the proposed approach. Results show that our approach gives better results when compared with other conventional feature selection algorithms.

  8. Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Ajay; Hutter, Inge

    2006-01-01

    Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from broader cultural meaning systems to rationalize uncertainty. In this study, we identify some of the cultural heuristics used by migrant men in Goa, India to assess their risk of HIV infection from different sexual partners. Data derives from a series of in-depth interviews and a locally informed survey. Cultural heuristics identified include visual heuristics, heuristics of gender roles, vigilance and trust. The paper argues that, for more culturally informed HIV/AIDS behaviour change interventions, knowledge of cultural heuristics is essential.

  9. A HYBRID HEURISTIC ALGORITHM FOR THE CLUSTERED TRAVELING SALESMAN PROBLEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mário Mestria

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This paper proposes a hybrid heuristic algorithm, based on the metaheuristics Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure, Iterated Local Search and Variable Neighborhood Descent, to solve the Clustered Traveling Salesman Problem (CTSP. Hybrid Heuristic algorithm uses several variable neighborhood structures combining the intensification (using local search operators and diversification (constructive heuristic and perturbation routine. In the CTSP, the vertices are partitioned into clusters and all vertices of each cluster have to be visited contiguously. The CTSP is -hard since it includes the well-known Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP as a special case. Our hybrid heuristic is compared with three heuristics from the literature and an exact method. Computational experiments are reported for different classes of instances. Experimental results show that the proposed hybrid heuristic obtains competitive results within reasonable computational time.

  10. Bayesian nonparametric data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter; Jara, Alejandro; Hanson, Tim

    2015-01-01

    This book reviews nonparametric Bayesian methods and models that have proven useful in the context of data analysis. Rather than providing an encyclopedic review of probability models, the book’s structure follows a data analysis perspective. As such, the chapters are organized by traditional data analysis problems. In selecting specific nonparametric models, simpler and more traditional models are favored over specialized ones. The discussed methods are illustrated with a wealth of examples, including applications ranging from stylized examples to case studies from recent literature. The book also includes an extensive discussion of computational methods and details on their implementation. R code for many examples is included in on-line software pages.

  11. Applied Bayesian modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Congdon, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and data analysis, with an emphasis on the interpretation of real data sets. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, this book aims to make a wide range of statistical modeling applications accessible using tested code that can be readily adapted to the reader's own applications. The second edition has been thoroughly reworked and updated to take account of advances in the field. A new set of worked examples is included. The novel aspect of the first edition was the coverage of statistical modeling using WinBU

  12. A grouping hyper-heuristic framework: application on graph colouring

    OpenAIRE

    Elhag, Anas; Özcan, Ender

    2015-01-01

    Grouping problems are hard to solve combinatorial optimisation problems which require partitioning of objects into a minimum number of subsets while a given objective is simultaneously optimised. Selection hyper-heuristics are high level general purpose search methodologies that operate on a space formed by a set of low level heuristics rather than solutions. Most of the recently proposed selection hyper-heuristics are iterative and make use of two key methods which are employed successively;...

  13. Identifying Onboarding Heuristics for Free-to-Play Mobile Games

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Line Ebdrup; Weigert Petersen, Falko; Drachen, Anders

    2016-01-01

    a set of heuristics for the design of onboarding phases in mobile games is presented. The heuristics are identified by a lab-based mixed-methods experiment, utilizing lightweight psycho-physiological measures together with self-reported player responses, across three titles that cross the genres...... of puzzle games, base builders and arcade games, and utilize different onboarding phase design approaches. Results showcase how heuristics can be used to design engaging onboarding phases in mobile games....

  14. The recognition heuristic : A review of theory and tests

    OpenAIRE

    Pachur, T.; Todd, P.; Gigerenzer, G.; Schooler, L.; Goldstein, D.

    2011-01-01

    The recognition heuristic is a prime example of how, by exploiting a match between mind and environment, a simple mental strategy can lead to efficient decision making. The proposal of the heuristic initiated a debate about the processes underlying the use of recognition in decision making. We review research addressing four key aspects of the recognition heuristic: (a) that recognition is often an ecologically valid cue; (b) that people often follow recognition when making inferences; (c) th...

  15. Proposing New Heuristic Approaches for Preventive Maintenance Scheduling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    majid Esmailian

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of preventive maintenance management is to perform a series of tasks that prevent or minimize production breakdowns and improve reliability of production facilities. An important objective of preventive maintenance management is to minimize downtime of production facilities. In order to accomplish this objective, personnel should efficiently allocate resources and determine an effective maintenance schedule. Gopalakrishnan (1997 developed a mathematical model and four heuristic approaches to solve the preventive maintenance scheduling problem of assigning skilled personnel to work with tasks that require a set of corresponding skills. However, there are several limitations in the prior work in this area of research. The craft combination problem has not been solved because the craft combination is assumed as given. The craft combination problem concerns the computation of all combinations of assigning multi skilled workers to accomplishment of a particular task. In fact, determining craft combinations is difficult because of the exponential number of craft combinations that are possible. This research provides a heuristic approach for determining the craft combination and four new heuristic approach solution for the preventive maintenance scheduling problem with multi skilled workforce constraints. In order to examine the new heuristic approach and to compare the new heuristic approach with heuristic approach of Gopalakrishnan (1997, 81 standard problems have been generated based on the criterion suggested by from Gopalakrishnan (1997. The average solution quality (SQ of the new heuristic approaches is 1.86% and in old heuristic approaches is 8.32%. The solution time of new heuristic approaches are shorter than old heuristic approaches. The solution time of new heuristic approaches is 0.78 second and old heuristic approaches is 6.43 second, but the solution time of mathematical model provided by Gopalakrishnan (1997 is 152 second.

  16. A heuristic evaluation of the Facebook's advertising tool beacon

    OpenAIRE

    Jamal, A; Cole, M

    2009-01-01

    Interface usability is critical to the successful adoption of information systems. The aim of this study is to evaluate interface of Facebook's advertising tool Beacon by using privacy heuristics [4]. Beacon represents an interesting case study because of the negative media and user backlash it received. The findings of heuristic evaluation suggest violation of privacy heuristics [4]. Here, analysis identified concerns about user choice and consent, integrity and security of data, and awarene...

  17. Interliminal Design: Understanding cognitive heuristics to mitigate design distortion

    OpenAIRE

    Andrew McCollough; DeAunne Denmark; Donald Harker

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive heuristics are mental shortcuts adapted over time to enable rapid interpretation of our complex environment. They are intrinsic to human cognition and resist modification. Heuristics applied outside the context to which they are best suited are termed cognitive bias, and are the cause of systematic errors in judgment and reasoning. As both a cognitive and intuitive discipline, design by individuals is vulnerable to context-inappropriate heuristic usage. Designing in groups can act p...

  18. Good fences make for good neighbors but bad science: a review of what improves Bayesian reasoning and why.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brase, Gary L; Hill, W Trey

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian reasoning, defined here as the updating of a posterior probability following new information, has historically been problematic for humans. Classic psychology experiments have tested human Bayesian reasoning through the use of word problems and have evaluated each participant's performance against the normatively correct answer provided by Bayes' theorem. The standard finding is of generally poor performance. Over the past two decades, though, progress has been made on how to improve Bayesian reasoning. Most notably, research has demonstrated that the use of frequencies in a natural sampling framework-as opposed to single-event probabilities-can improve participants' Bayesian estimates. Furthermore, pictorial aids and certain individual difference factors also can play significant roles in Bayesian reasoning success. The mechanics of how to build tasks which show these improvements is not under much debate. The explanations for why naturally sampled frequencies and pictures help Bayesian reasoning remain hotly contested, however, with many researchers falling into ingrained "camps" organized around two dominant theoretical perspectives. The present paper evaluates the merits of these theoretical perspectives, including the weight of empirical evidence, theoretical coherence, and predictive power. By these criteria, the ecological rationality approach is clearly better than the heuristics and biases view. Progress in the study of Bayesian reasoning will depend on continued research that honestly, vigorously, and consistently engages across these different theoretical accounts rather than staying "siloed" within one particular perspective. The process of science requires an understanding of competing points of view, with the ultimate goal being integration.

  19. Heuristic use of perceptual evidence leads to dissociation between performance and metacognitive sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maniscalco, Brian; Peters, Megan A K; Lau, Hakwan

    2016-04-01

    Zylberberg et al. [Zylberberg, Barttfeld, & Sigman (Frontiers in Integrative Neuroscience, 6; 79, 2012), Frontiers in Integrative Neuroscience 6:79] found that confidence decisions, but not perceptual decisions, are insensitive to evidence against a selected perceptual choice. We present a signal detection theoretic model to formalize this insight, which gave rise to a counter-intuitive empirical prediction: that depending on the observer's perceptual choice, increasing task performance can be associated with decreasing metacognitive sensitivity (i.e., the trial-by-trial correspondence between confidence and accuracy). The model also provides an explanation as to why metacognitive sensitivity tends to be less than optimal in actual subjects. These predictions were confirmed robustly in a psychophysics experiment. In a second experiment we found that, in at least some subjects, the effects were replicated even under performance feedback designed to encourage optimal behavior. However, some subjects did show improvement under feedback, suggesting the tendency to ignore evidence against a selected perceptual choice may be a heuristic adopted by the perceptual decision-making system, rather than reflecting inherent biological limitations. We present a Bayesian modeling framework that explains why this heuristic strategy may be advantageous in real-world contexts.

  20. Heuristic Portfolio Trading Rules with Capital Gain Taxes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Marcel; Gallmeyer, Michael

    in some cases. Overlaying simple tax trading heuristics on these trading strategies improves out-of-sample performance. In particular, the 1/N trading strategy's welfare gains improve when a variety of tax trading heuristics are also imposed. For medium to large transaction costs, no trading strategy can...... outperform a 1/N trading strategy augmented with a tax heuristic, not even the most tax- and transaction-cost efficient buy-and-hold strategy. Overall, the best strategy is 1/N augmented with a heuristic that allows for a fixed deviation in absolute portfolio weights. Our results show that the best trading...

  1. Intelligent process mapping through systematic improvement of heuristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ieumwananonthachai, Arthur; Aizawa, Akiko N.; Schwartz, Steven R.; Wah, Benjamin W.; Yan, Jerry C.

    1992-01-01

    The present system for automatic learning/evaluation of novel heuristic methods applicable to the mapping of communication-process sets on a computer network has its basis in the testing of a population of competing heuristic methods within a fixed time-constraint. The TEACHER 4.1 prototype learning system implemented or learning new postgame analysis heuristic methods iteratively generates and refines the mappings of a set of communicating processes on a computer network. A systematic exploration of the space of possible heuristic methods is shown to promise significant improvement.

  2. Improved Fatigue Performance of Threaded Drillstring Connections by Cold Rolling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kristoffersen, Steinar

    2002-01-01

    The research work presented in this thesis is concerned with analytical, numerical and experimental studies of the effect of cold rolling on the fatigue behaviour of threaded drillstring connections. A comprehensive literature study is made of the various effects on the fatigue behaviour of residual stresses introduced by mechanical deformation of notched components. Some of the effects studied are cyclic hardening behaviour after prestraining, cyclic creep, fatigue initiation in prestrained materials, short cracks and crack growth models including crack closure. Residual stresses were introduced in the surface of a smooth pipe by a rolling device to simulate a cold rolling process and verify the calculated residual stresses by measurements. Strain hardening and contact algorithm of the two bodies were incorporated in the FE analyses. Two significant errors were found in the commercial software package for residual stress evaluation, Restran v. 3.3.2a also called SINT, when using the Schajer method. The Schajer algorithm is the only hole-drilling algorithm without theoretical shortcomings, and is recommended when measuring large residual stress gradients in the depth direction. Using the Schajer method solved by in-house Matlab-routines good agreement between measured residual stress gradients and residual stress gradients from FE analyses was found. Full scale fatigue tests were performed on pipes cut from used drillstrings with notches of similar geometry as threads used in drillstring connections. The simulated threads consisted of four full depth helix notches with runouts at the surface. The pipe threads were cold rolled and fatigue tested in a full-scale four-point rotating bending fatigue testing rig. The test results showed that cold rolling had an effect on the crack initiation period. A major part of the fatigue life was with cracks observed at the notch root, but due to the increased fatigue crack propagation resistance the final fracture initiated at

  3. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....

  4. Searching Algorithm Using Bayesian Updates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caudle, Kyle

    2010-01-01

    In late October 1967, the USS Scorpion was lost at sea, somewhere between the Azores and Norfolk Virginia. Dr. Craven of the U.S. Navy's Special Projects Division is credited with using Bayesian Search Theory to locate the submarine. Bayesian Search Theory is a straightforward and interesting application of Bayes' theorem which involves searching…

  5. Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 2)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2018-01-01

    framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

  6. Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 1)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2018-01-01

    framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

  7. Thread angle dependency on flame spread shape over kenaf/polyester combined fabric

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azahari Razali, Mohd; Sapit, Azwan; Nizam Mohammed, Akmal; Nor Anuar Mohamad, Md; Nordin, Normayati; Sadikin, Azmahani; Faisal Hushim, Mohd; Jaat, Norrizam; Khalid, Amir

    2017-09-01

    Understanding flame spread behavior is crucial to Fire Safety Engineering. It is noted that the natural fiber exhibits different flame spread behavior than the one of the synthetic fiber. This different may influences the flame spread behavior over combined fabric. There is a research has been done to examined the flame spread behavior over kenaf/polyester fabric. It is seen that the flame spread shape is dependent on the thread angle dependency. However, the explanation of this phenomenon is not described in detail in that research. In this study, explanation about this phenomenon is given in detail. Results show that the flame spread shape is dependent on the position of synthetic thread. For thread angle, θ = 0°, the polyester thread is breaking when the flame approach to the thread and the kenaf thread tends to move to the breaking direction. This behavior produces flame to be ‘V’ shape. However, for thread angle, θ = 90°, the polyester thread melts while the kenaf thread decomposed and burned. At this angle, the distance between kenaf threads remains constant as flame approaches.

  8. Kinematics of Planetary Roller Screw Mechanism considering Helical Directions of Screw and Roller Threads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shangjun Ma

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the differential principle of thread transmission, an analytical model considering helical directions between screw and roller threads in planetary roller screw mechanism (PRSM is presented in this work. The model is critical for the design of PRSM with a smaller lead and a bigger pitch to realize a higher transmission accuracy. The kinematic principle of planetary transmission is employed to analyze the PRSM with different screw thread and roller thread directions. In order to investigate the differences with different screw thread and roller thread directions, the numerical model is developed by using the software Adams to validate the analytical solutions calculated by the presented model. The results indicate, when the helical direction of screw thread is identical with the direction of roller thread, that the lead of PRSM is unaffected regardless of whether sliding between screw and rollers occurs or not. Only when the direction of screw thread is reverse to the direction of roller thread, the design of PRSM with a smaller lead can be realized under a bigger pitch. The presented models and numerical simulation method can be used to research the transmission accuracy of PRSM.

  9. The Bayesian Covariance Lasso.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khondker, Zakaria S; Zhu, Hongtu; Chu, Haitao; Lin, Weili; Ibrahim, Joseph G

    2013-04-01

    Estimation of sparse covariance matrices and their inverse subject to positive definiteness constraints has drawn a lot of attention in recent years. The abundance of high-dimensional data, where the sample size ( n ) is less than the dimension ( d ), requires shrinkage estimation methods since the maximum likelihood estimator is not positive definite in this case. Furthermore, when n is larger than d but not sufficiently larger, shrinkage estimation is more stable than maximum likelihood as it reduces the condition number of the precision matrix. Frequentist methods have utilized penalized likelihood methods, whereas Bayesian approaches rely on matrix decompositions or Wishart priors for shrinkage. In this paper we propose a new method, called the Bayesian Covariance Lasso (BCLASSO), for the shrinkage estimation of a precision (covariance) matrix. We consider a class of priors for the precision matrix that leads to the popular frequentist penalties as special cases, develop a Bayes estimator for the precision matrix, and propose an efficient sampling scheme that does not precalculate boundaries for positive definiteness. The proposed method is permutation invariant and performs shrinkage and estimation simultaneously for non-full rank data. Simulations show that the proposed BCLASSO performs similarly as frequentist methods for non-full rank data.

  10. Bayesian dynamic mediation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jing; Yuan, Ying

    2017-12-01

    Most existing methods for mediation analysis assume that mediation is a stationary, time-invariant process, which overlooks the inherently dynamic nature of many human psychological processes and behavioral activities. In this article, we consider mediation as a dynamic process that continuously changes over time. We propose Bayesian multilevel time-varying coefficient models to describe and estimate such dynamic mediation effects. By taking the nonparametric penalized spline approach, the proposed method is flexible and able to accommodate any shape of the relationship between time and mediation effects. Simulation studies show that the proposed method works well and faithfully reflects the true nature of the mediation process. By modeling mediation effect nonparametrically as a continuous function of time, our method provides a valuable tool to help researchers obtain a more complete understanding of the dynamic nature of the mediation process underlying psychological and behavioral phenomena. We also briefly discuss an alternative approach of using dynamic autoregressive mediation model to estimate the dynamic mediation effect. The computer code is provided to implement the proposed Bayesian dynamic mediation analysis. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Approximate Bayesian computation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikael Sunnåker

    Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and approximations whose impact needs to be carefully assessed. Furthermore, the wider application domain of ABC exacerbates the challenges of parameter estimation and model selection. ABC has rapidly gained popularity over the last years and in particular for the analysis of complex problems arising in biological sciences (e.g., in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology, and systems biology.

  12. Using heuristic search for optimizing maintenance plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutanen, Teemu

    2012-01-01

    This work addresses the maintenance action selection process. Maintenance personnel need to evaluate maintenance actions and costs to keep the machines in working condition. Group of actions are evaluated together as maintenance plans. The maintenance plans as output provide information to the user about which actions to take if any and what future actions should be prepared for. The heuristic search method is implemented as part of general use toolbox for analysis of measurements from movable work machines. Impacts from machine's usage restrictions and maintenance activities are analysed. The results show that once put on a temporal perspective, the prioritized order of the actions is different and provide additional information to the user.

  13. Efficient heuristics for the Rural Postman Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GW Groves

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available A local search framework for the (undirected Rural Postman Problem (RPP is presented in this paper. The framework allows local search approaches that have been applied successfully to the well–known Travelling Salesman Problem also to be applied to the RPP. New heuristics for the RPP, based on this framework, are introduced and these are capable of solving significantly larger instances of the RPP than have been reported in the literature. Test results are presented for a number of benchmark RPP instances in a bid to compare efficiency and solution quality against known methods.

  14. Advances in heuristic signal processing and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Chatterjee, Amitava; Siarry, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    There have been significant developments in the design and application of algorithms for both one-dimensional signal processing and multidimensional signal processing, namely image and video processing, with the recent focus changing from a step-by-step procedure of designing the algorithm first and following up with in-depth analysis and performance improvement to instead applying heuristic-based methods to solve signal-processing problems. In this book the contributing authors demonstrate both general-purpose algorithms and those aimed at solving specialized application problems, with a spec

  15. Heuristics for the Robust Coloring Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Ángel Gutiérrez Andrade

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Let $G$ and $\\bar{G}$ be complementary graphs. Given a penalty function defined on the edges of $G$, we will say that the rigidity of a $k$-coloring of $G$ is the sum of the penalties of the edges of G joining vertices of the same color. Based on the previous definition, the Robust Coloring Problem (RCP is stated as the search of the minimum rigidity $k$-coloring. In this work a comparison of heuristics based on simulated annealing, GRASP and scatter search is presented. These are the best results for the RCP that have been obtained.

  16. Bayesian inference with ecological applications

    CERN Document Server

    Link, William A

    2009-01-01

    This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...

  17. Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asad Ali

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an  overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.

  18. Further heuristics for $k$-means: The merge-and-split heuristic and the $(k,l)$-means

    OpenAIRE

    Nielsen, Frank; Nock, Richard

    2014-01-01

    Finding the optimal $k$-means clustering is NP-hard in general and many heuristics have been designed for minimizing monotonically the $k$-means objective. We first show how to extend Lloyd's batched relocation heuristic and Hartigan's single-point relocation heuristic to take into account empty-cluster and single-point cluster events, respectively. Those events tend to increasingly occur when $k$ or $d$ increases, or when performing several restarts. First, we show that those special events ...

  19. Bayesians versus frequentists a philosophical debate on statistical reasoning

    CERN Document Server

    Vallverdú, Jordi

    2016-01-01

    This book analyzes the origins of statistical thinking as well as its related philosophical questions, such as causality, determinism or chance. Bayesian and frequentist approaches are subjected to a historical, cognitive and epistemological analysis, making it possible to not only compare the two competing theories, but to also find a potential solution. The work pursues a naturalistic approach, proceeding from the existence of numerosity in natural environments to the existence of contemporary formulas and methodologies to heuristic pragmatism, a concept introduced in the book’s final section. This monograph will be of interest to philosophers and historians of science and students in related fields. Despite the mathematical nature of the topic, no statistical background is required, making the book a valuable read for anyone interested in the history of statistics and human cognition.

  20. Case-Based Reasoning as a Heuristic Selector in a Hyper-Heuristic for Course Timetabling Problems

    OpenAIRE

    Petrovic, Sanja; Qu, Rong

    2002-01-01

    This paper studies Knowledge Discovery (KD) using Tabu Search and Hill Climbing within Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) as a hyper-heuristic method for course timetabling problems. The aim of the hyper-heuristic is to choose the best heuristic(s) for given timetabling problems according to the knowledge stored in the case base. KD in CBR is a 2-stage iterative process on both case representation and the case base. Experimental results are analysed and related research issues for future work are dis...

  1. Protein Structure Recognition: From Eigenvector Analysis to Structural Threading Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cao, Haibo [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

    2003-01-01

    In this work, they try to understand the protein folding problem using pair-wise hydrophobic interaction as the dominant interaction for the protein folding process. They found a strong correlation between amino acid sequences and the corresponding native structure of the protein. Some applications of this correlation were discussed in this dissertation include the domain partition and a new structural threading method as well as the performance of this method in the CASP5 competition. In the first part, they give a brief introduction to the protein folding problem. Some essential knowledge and progress from other research groups was discussed. This part includes discussions of interactions among amino acids residues, lattice HP model, and the design ability principle. In the second part, they try to establish the correlation between amino acid sequence and the corresponding native structure of the protein. This correlation was observed in the eigenvector study of protein contact matrix. They believe the correlation is universal, thus it can be used in automatic partition of protein structures into folding domains. In the third part, they discuss a threading method based on the correlation between amino acid sequences and ominant eigenvector of the structure contact-matrix. A mathematically straightforward iteration scheme provides a self-consistent optimum global sequence-structure alignment. The computational efficiency of this method makes it possible to search whole protein structure databases for structural homology without relying on sequence similarity. The sensitivity and specificity of this method is discussed, along with a case of blind test prediction. In the appendix, they list the overall performance of this threading method in CASP5 blind test in comparison with other existing approaches.

  2. Protein structure recognition: From eigenvector analysis to structural threading method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Haibo

    In this work, we try to understand the protein folding problem using pair-wise hydrophobic interaction as the dominant interaction for the protein folding process. We found a strong correlation between amino acid sequence and the corresponding native structure of the protein. Some applications of this correlation were discussed in this dissertation include the domain partition and a new structural threading method as well as the performance of this method in the CASP5 competition. In the first part, we give a brief introduction to the protein folding problem. Some essential knowledge and progress from other research groups was discussed. This part include discussions of interactions among amino acids residues, lattice HP model, and the designablity principle. In the second part, we try to establish the correlation between amino acid sequence and the corresponding native structure of the protein. This correlation was observed in our eigenvector study of protein contact matrix. We believe the correlation is universal, thus it can be used in automatic partition of protein structures into folding domains. In the third part, we discuss a threading method based on the correlation between amino acid sequence and ominant eigenvector of the structure contact-matrix. A mathematically straightforward iteration scheme provides a self-consistent optimum global sequence-structure alignment. The computational efficiency of this method makes it possible to search whole protein structure databases for structural homology without relying on sequence similarity. The sensitivity and specificity of this method is discussed, along with a case of blind test prediction. In the appendix, we list the overall performance of this threading method in CASP5 blind test in comparison with other existing approaches.

  3. Protein Structure Recognition: From Eigenvector Analysis to Structural Threading Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haibo Cao

    2003-01-01

    In this work, they try to understand the protein folding problem using pair-wise hydrophobic interaction as the dominant interaction for the protein folding process. They found a strong correlation between amino acid sequences and the corresponding native structure of the protein. Some applications of this correlation were discussed in this dissertation include the domain partition and a new structural threading method as well as the performance of this method in the CASP5 competition. In the first part, they give a brief introduction to the protein folding problem. Some essential knowledge and progress from other research groups was discussed. This part includes discussions of interactions among amino acids residues, lattice HP model, and the design ability principle. In the second part, they try to establish the correlation between amino acid sequence and the corresponding native structure of the protein. This correlation was observed in the eigenvector study of protein contact matrix. They believe the correlation is universal, thus it can be used in automatic partition of protein structures into folding domains. In the third part, they discuss a threading method based on the correlation between amino acid sequences and ominant eigenvector of the structure contact-matrix. A mathematically straightforward iteration scheme provides a self-consistent optimum global sequence-structure alignment. The computational efficiency of this method makes it possible to search whole protein structure databases for structural homology without relying on sequence similarity. The sensitivity and specificity of this method is discussed, along with a case of blind test prediction. In the appendix, they list the overall performance of this threading method in CASP5 blind test in comparison with other existing approaches

  4. How to practise Bayesian statistics outside the Bayesian church: What philosophy for Bayesian statistical modelling?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.

    2013-01-01

    Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science

  5. A Pseudo-Bayesian Model for Stock Returns In Financial Crises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric S. Fung

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Recently, there has been a considerable interest in the Bayesian approach for explaining investors' behaviorial biases by incorporating conservative and representative heuristics when making financial decisions, (see, for example, Barberis, Shleifer and Vishny (1998. To establish a quantitative link between some important market anomalies and investors' behaviorial biases, Lam, Liu, and Wong (2010 introduced a pseudo-Bayesian approach for developing properties of stock returns, where weights induced by investors' conservative and representative heuristics are assigned to observations of the earning shocks and stock prices. In response to the recent global financial crisis, we introduce a new pseudo-Bayesian model to incorporate the impact of a financial crisis. Properties of stock returns during the financial crisis and recovery from the crisis are established. The proposed model can be applied to investigate some important market anomalies including short-term underreaction, long-term overreaction, and excess volatility during financial crisis. We also explain in some detail the linkage between these market anomalies and investors' behavioral biases during financial crisis.

  6. Atmospheric pressure H20 plasma treatment of polyester cord threads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simor, M.; Krump, H.; Hudec, I.; Rahel, J.; Brablec, A.; Cernak, M.

    2004-01-01

    Polyester cord threads, which are used as a reinforcing materials of rubber blend, have been treated in atmospheric-pressure H 2 0 plasma in order to enhance their adhesion to rubber. The atmospheric-pressure H 2 0 plasma was generated in an underwater diaphragm discharge. The plasma treatment resulted in approximately 100% improvement in the adhesion. Scanning electron microscopy investigation indicates that not only introduced surface polar groups but also increased surface area of the fibres due to a fibre surface roughening are responsible for the improved adhesive strength (Authors)

  7. Combined Heuristic Attack Strategy on Complex Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Šimon

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Usually, the existence of a complex network is considered an advantage feature and efforts are made to increase its robustness against an attack. However, there exist also harmful and/or malicious networks, from social ones like spreading hoax, corruption, phishing, extremist ideology, and terrorist support up to computer networks spreading computer viruses or DDoS attack software or even biological networks of carriers or transport centers spreading disease among the population. New attack strategy can be therefore used against malicious networks, as well as in a worst-case scenario test for robustness of a useful network. A common measure of robustness of networks is their disintegration level after removal of a fraction of nodes. This robustness can be calculated as a ratio of the number of nodes of the greatest remaining network component against the number of nodes in the original network. Our paper presents a combination of heuristics optimized for an attack on a complex network to achieve its greatest disintegration. Nodes are deleted sequentially based on a heuristic criterion. Efficiency of classical attack approaches is compared to the proposed approach on Barabási-Albert, scale-free with tunable power-law exponent, and Erdős-Rényi models of complex networks and on real-world networks. Our attack strategy results in a faster disintegration, which is counterbalanced by its slightly increased computational demands.

  8. Advances in heuristically based generalized perturbation theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    1994-01-01

    A distinctive feature of heuristically based generalized perturbation theory methodology consists in the systematic use of importance conservation concepts. As well known, this use leads to fundamental reciprocity relationship. Instead, the alternative variational and differential one approaches make a consistent use of the properties and adjoint functions. The equivalence between the importance and the adjoint functions have been demonstrated in important cases. There are some instances, however, in which the commonly known operator governing the adjoint function are not adequate. In this paper ways proposed to generalize this rules, as adopted with the heuristic generalized perturbation theory methodology, are illustrated. When applied to the neutron/nuclide field characterizing the core evolution in a power reactor system, in which also an intensive control variable (ρ) is defined, these rules leas to an orthogonality relationship connected to this same control variable. A set of ρ-mode eigenfunctions may be correspondingly defined and an extended concept of reactivity (generalizing that commonly associated with the multiplication factor) proposed as more directly indicative of the controllability of a critical reactor system. (author). 25 refs

  9. A Geographical Heuristic Routing Protocol for VANETs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urquiza-Aguiar, Luis; Tripp-Barba, Carolina; Aguilar Igartua, Mónica

    2016-01-01

    Vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs) leverage the communication system of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). Recently, Delay-Tolerant Network (DTN) routing protocols have increased their popularity among the research community for being used in non-safety VANET applications and services like traffic reporting. Vehicular DTN protocols use geographical and local information to make forwarding decisions. However, current proposals only consider the selection of the best candidate based on a local-search. In this paper, we propose a generic Geographical Heuristic Routing (GHR) protocol that can be applied to any DTN geographical routing protocol that makes forwarding decisions hop by hop. GHR includes in its operation adaptations simulated annealing and Tabu-search meta-heuristics, which have largely been used to improve local-search results in discrete optimization. We include a complete performance evaluation of GHR in a multi-hop VANET simulation scenario for a reporting service. Our study analyzes all of the meaningful configurations of GHR and offers a statistical analysis of our findings by means of MANOVA tests. Our results indicate that the use of a Tabu list contributes to improving the packet delivery ratio by around 5% to 10%. Moreover, if Tabu is used, then the simulated annealing routing strategy gets a better performance than the selection of the best node used with carry and forwarding (default operation). PMID:27669254

  10. From Metaphors to Formalism: A Heuristic Approach to Holistic Assessments of Ecosystem Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fock, Heino O; Kraus, Gerd

    2016-01-01

    Environmental policies employ metaphoric objectives such as ecosystem health, resilience and sustainable provision of ecosystem services, which influence corresponding sustainability assessments by means of normative settings such as assumptions on system description, indicator selection, aggregation of information and target setting. A heuristic approach is developed for sustainability assessments to avoid ambiguity and applications to the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and OSPAR assessments are presented. For MSFD, nineteen different assessment procedures have been proposed, but at present no agreed assessment procedure is available. The heuristic assessment framework is a functional-holistic approach comprising an ex-ante/ex-post assessment framework with specifically defined normative and systemic dimensions (EAEPNS). The outer normative dimension defines the ex-ante/ex-post framework, of which the latter branch delivers one measure of ecosystem health based on indicators and the former allows to account for the multi-dimensional nature of sustainability (social, economic, ecological) in terms of modeling approaches. For MSFD, the ex-ante/ex-post framework replaces the current distinction between assessments based on pressure and state descriptors. The ex-ante and the ex-post branch each comprise an inner normative and a systemic dimension. The inner normative dimension in the ex-post branch considers additive utility models and likelihood functions to standardize variables normalized with Bayesian modeling. Likelihood functions allow precautionary target setting. The ex-post systemic dimension considers a posteriori indicator selection by means of analysis of indicator space to avoid redundant indicator information as opposed to a priori indicator selection in deconstructive-structural approaches. Indicator information is expressed in terms of ecosystem variability by means of multivariate analysis procedures. The application to the OSPAR

  11. From Metaphors to Formalism: A Heuristic Approach to Holistic Assessments of Ecosystem Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraus, Gerd

    2016-01-01

    Environmental policies employ metaphoric objectives such as ecosystem health, resilience and sustainable provision of ecosystem services, which influence corresponding sustainability assessments by means of normative settings such as assumptions on system description, indicator selection, aggregation of information and target setting. A heuristic approach is developed for sustainability assessments to avoid ambiguity and applications to the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and OSPAR assessments are presented. For MSFD, nineteen different assessment procedures have been proposed, but at present no agreed assessment procedure is available. The heuristic assessment framework is a functional-holistic approach comprising an ex-ante/ex-post assessment framework with specifically defined normative and systemic dimensions (EAEPNS). The outer normative dimension defines the ex-ante/ex-post framework, of which the latter branch delivers one measure of ecosystem health based on indicators and the former allows to account for the multi-dimensional nature of sustainability (social, economic, ecological) in terms of modeling approaches. For MSFD, the ex-ante/ex-post framework replaces the current distinction between assessments based on pressure and state descriptors. The ex-ante and the ex-post branch each comprise an inner normative and a systemic dimension. The inner normative dimension in the ex-post branch considers additive utility models and likelihood functions to standardize variables normalized with Bayesian modeling. Likelihood functions allow precautionary target setting. The ex-post systemic dimension considers a posteriori indicator selection by means of analysis of indicator space to avoid redundant indicator information as opposed to a priori indicator selection in deconstructive-structural approaches. Indicator information is expressed in terms of ecosystem variability by means of multivariate analysis procedures. The application to the OSPAR

  12. Method for reinforcing threads in multilayer composite tubes and cylindrical structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romanoski, G.R.; Burchell, T.D.

    1996-01-01

    Multilayer techniques such as: tape wrapping, braiding, and filament winding represent versatile and economical routes for fabricating composite tubes and cylindrical structures. However, multilayer architectures lack the radial reinforcement required to retain threads when the desired means of connection or closure is a threaded joint. This issue was addressed in the development of a filament wound, carbon-carbon composite impact shell for the NASA radioisotope thermoelectric generator. The problem of poor thread shear strength was solved by incorporating a number of radial elements of triangular geometry around the circumference of the thread for the full length of thread engagement. The radial elements significantly increased the shear strength of the threaded joint by transmitting the applied force to the balance of composite structure. This approach is also applicable to ceramic composites

  13. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

    2015-10-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality.

  14. Bayesian Monte Carlo method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajabalinejad, M.

    2010-01-01

    To reduce cost of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for time-consuming processes, Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) is introduced in this paper. The BMC method reduces number of realizations in MC according to the desired accuracy level. BMC also provides a possibility of considering more priors. In other words, different priors can be integrated into one model by using BMC to further reduce cost of simulations. This study suggests speeding up the simulation process by considering the logical dependence of neighboring points as prior information. This information is used in the BMC method to produce a predictive tool through the simulation process. The general methodology and algorithm of BMC method are presented in this paper. The BMC method is applied to the simplified break water model as well as the finite element model of 17th Street Canal in New Orleans, and the results are compared with the MC and Dynamic Bounds methods.

  15. Bayesian nonparametric hierarchical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunson, David B

    2009-04-01

    In biomedical research, hierarchical models are very widely used to accommodate dependence in multivariate and longitudinal data and for borrowing of information across data from different sources. A primary concern in hierarchical modeling is sensitivity to parametric assumptions, such as linearity and normality of the random effects. Parametric assumptions on latent variable distributions can be challenging to check and are typically unwarranted, given available prior knowledge. This article reviews some recent developments in Bayesian nonparametric methods motivated by complex, multivariate and functional data collected in biomedical studies. The author provides a brief review of flexible parametric approaches relying on finite mixtures and latent class modeling. Dirichlet process mixture models are motivated by the need to generalize these approaches to avoid assuming a fixed finite number of classes. Focusing on an epidemiology application, the author illustrates the practical utility and potential of nonparametric Bayes methods.

  16. Influence of Thread Root Radius on Maximum Local Stresses at Large Diameter Bolts under Axial Loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cojocaru Vasile

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In the thread root area of the threaded bolts submitted to axial loading occur local stresses, higher that nominal stresses calculated for the bolts. These local stresses can generate failure and can reduce the fatigue life of the parts. The paper is focused on the study of the influence of the thread root radius on the maximum local stresses. A large diameter trapezoidal bolt was subjected to a static analysis (axial loading using finite element simulation.

  17. Three-dimensional optimization and sensitivity analysis of dental implant thread parameters using finite element analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geramizadeh, Maryam; Katoozian, Hamidreza; Amid, Reza; Kadkhodazadeh, Mahdi

    2018-04-01

    This study aimed to optimize the thread depth and pitch of a recently designed dental implant to provide uniform stress distribution by means of a response surface optimization method available in finite element (FE) software. The sensitivity of simulation to different mechanical parameters was also evaluated. A three-dimensional model of a tapered dental implant with micro-threads in the upper area and V-shaped threads in the rest of the body was modeled and analyzed using finite element analysis (FEA). An axial load of 100 N was applied to the top of the implants. The model was optimized for thread depth and pitch to determine the optimal stress distribution. In this analysis, micro-threads had 0.25 to 0.3 mm depth and 0.27 to 0.33 mm pitch, and V-shaped threads had 0.405 to 0.495 mm depth and 0.66 to 0.8 mm pitch. The optimized depth and pitch were 0.307 and 0.286 mm for micro-threads and 0.405 and 0.808 mm for V-shaped threads, respectively. In this design, the most effective parameters on stress distribution were the depth and pitch of the micro-threads based on sensitivity analysis results. Based on the results of this study, the optimal implant design has micro-threads with 0.307 and 0.286 mm depth and pitch, respectively, in the upper area and V-shaped threads with 0.405 and 0.808 mm depth and pitch in the rest of the body. These results indicate that micro-thread parameters have a greater effect on stress and strain values.

  18. Use of Statistical Heuristics in Everyday Inductive Reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nisbett, Richard E.; And Others

    1983-01-01

    In everyday reasoning, people use statistical heuristics (judgmental tools that are rough intuitive equivalents of statistical principles). Use of statistical heuristics is more likely when (1) sampling is clear, (2) the role of chance is clear, (3) statistical reasoning is normative for the event, or (4) the subject has had training in…

  19. A Priori Knowledge and Heuristic Reasoning in Architectural Design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, Peter G.

    1982-01-01

    It is proposed that the various classes of a priori knowledge incorporated in heuristic reasoning processes exert a strong influence over architectural design activity. Some design problems require exercise of some provisional set of rules, inference, or plausible strategy which requires heuristic reasoning. A case study illustrates this concept.…

  20. Heuristic Inquiry: A Personal Journey of Acculturation and Identity Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djuraskovic, Ivana; Arthur, Nancy

    2010-01-01

    Heuristic methodology attempts to discover the nature and meaning of phenomenon through internal self-search, exploration, and discovery. Heuristic methodology encourages the researcher to explore and pursue the creative journey that begins inside one's being and ultimately uncovers its direction and meaning through internal discovery (Douglass &…

  1. Hyper-heuristics with low level parameter adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhilei; Jiang, He; Xuan, Jifeng; Luo, Zhongxuan

    2012-01-01

    Recent years have witnessed the great success of hyper-heuristics applying to numerous real-world applications. Hyper-heuristics raise the generality of search methodologies by manipulating a set of low level heuristics (LLHs) to solve problems, and aim to automate the algorithm design process. However, those LLHs are usually parameterized, which may contradict the domain independent motivation of hyper-heuristics. In this paper, we show how to automatically maintain low level parameters (LLPs) using a hyper-heuristic with LLP adaptation (AD-HH), and exemplify the feasibility of AD-HH by adaptively maintaining the LLPs for two hyper-heuristic models. Furthermore, aiming at tackling the search space expansion due to the LLP adaptation, we apply a heuristic space reduction (SAR) mechanism to improve the AD-HH framework. The integration of the LLP adaptation and the SAR mechanism is able to explore the heuristic space more effectively and efficiently. To evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithms, we choose the p-median problem as a case study. The empirical results show that with the adaptation of the LLPs and the SAR mechanism, the proposed algorithms are able to achieve competitive results over the three heterogeneous classes of benchmark instances.

  2. Experimental Matching of Instances to Heuristics for Constraint Satisfaction Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Scott, Jorge Humberto; Ortiz-Bayliss, José Carlos; Terashima-Marín, Hugo; Conant-Pablos, Santiago Enrique

    2016-01-01

    Constraint satisfaction problems are of special interest for the artificial intelligence and operations research community due to their many applications. Although heuristics involved in solving these problems have largely been studied in the past, little is known about the relation between instances and the respective performance of the heuristics used to solve them. This paper focuses on both the exploration of the instance space to identify relations between instances and good performing heuristics and how to use such relations to improve the search. Firstly, the document describes a methodology to explore the instance space of constraint satisfaction problems and evaluate the corresponding performance of six variable ordering heuristics for such instances in order to find regions on the instance space where some heuristics outperform the others. Analyzing such regions favors the understanding of how these heuristics work and contribute to their improvement. Secondly, we use the information gathered from the first stage to predict the most suitable heuristic to use according to the features of the instance currently being solved. This approach proved to be competitive when compared against the heuristics applied in isolation on both randomly generated and structured instances of constraint satisfaction problems.

  3. Proximity search heuristics for wind farm optimal layout

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischetti, Martina; Monaci, Michele

    2016-01-01

    A heuristic framework for turbine layout optimization in a wind farm is proposed that combines ad-hoc heuristics and mixed-integer linear programming. In our framework, large-scale mixed-integer programming models are used to iteratively refine the current best solution according to the recently...

  4. Heuristics for no-wait flow shop scheduling problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kewal Krishan Nailwal

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available No-wait flow shop scheduling refers to continuous flow of jobs through different machines. The job once started should have the continuous processing through the machines without wait. This situation occurs when there is a lack of an intermediate storage between the processing of jobs on two consecutive machines. The problem of no-wait with the objective of minimizing makespan in flow shop scheduling is NP-hard; therefore the heuristic algorithms are the key to solve the problem with optimal solution or to approach nearer to optimal solution in simple manner. The paper describes two heuristics, one constructive and an improvement heuristic algorithm obtained by modifying the constructive one for sequencing n-jobs through m-machines in a flow shop under no-wait constraint with the objective of minimizing makespan. The efficiency of the proposed heuristic algorithms is tested on 120 Taillard’s benchmark problems found in the literature against the NEH under no-wait and the MNEH heuristic for no-wait flow shop problem. The improvement heuristic outperforms all heuristics on the Taillard’s instances by improving the results of NEH by 27.85%, MNEH by 22.56% and that of the proposed constructive heuristic algorithm by 24.68%. To explain the computational process of the proposed algorithm, numerical illustrations are also given in the paper. Statistical tests of significance are done in order to draw the conclusions.

  5. Fairness and other leadership heuristics: A four-nation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janson, A.; Levy, L.; Sitkin, S.B.; Lind, E.A.

    2008-01-01

    Leaders' fairness may be just one of several heuristics - cognitive shortcuts - that followers use to decide quickly whether they can rely on a given leader to lead them to ends that are good for the collective, rather than just good for the leader. Other leadership heuristics might include leader

  6. HEURISTIC OPTIMIZATION AND ALGORITHM TUNING APPLIED TO SORPTIVE BARRIER DESIGN

    Science.gov (United States)

    While heuristic optimization is applied in environmental applications, ad-hoc algorithm configuration is typical. We use a multi-layer sorptive barrier design problem as a benchmark for an algorithm-tuning procedure, as applied to three heuristics (genetic algorithms, simulated ...

  7. On Dual Processing and Heuristic Approaches to Moral Cognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapsley, Daniel K.; Hill, Patrick L.

    2008-01-01

    We examine the implications of dual-processing theories of cognition for the moral domain, with particular emphasis upon "System 1" theories: the Social Intuitionist Model (Haidt), moral heuristics (Sunstein), fast-and-frugal moral heuristics (Gigerenzer), schema accessibility (Lapsley & Narvaez) and moral expertise (Narvaez). We argue that these…

  8. Efficient Heuristics for Simulating Population Overflow in Parallel Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zaburnenko, T.S.; Nicola, V.F.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we propose a state-dependent importance sampling heuristic to estimate the probability of population overflow in networks of parallel queues. This heuristic approximates the “optimal��? state-dependent change of measure without the need for costly optimization involved in other

  9. Swift and Smart Decision Making: Heuristics that Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoy, Wayne K.; Tarter, C. J.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this paper is to examine the research literature on decision making and identify and develop a set of heuristics that work for school decision makers. Design/methodology/approach: This analysis is a synthesis of the research on decision-making heuristics that work. Findings: A set of nine rules for swift and smart decision…

  10. Does the inherence heuristic take us to psychological essentialism?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marmodoro, Anna; Murphy, Robin A; Baker, A G

    2014-10-01

    We argue that the claim that essence-based causal explanations emerge, hydra-like, from an inherence heuristic is incomplete. No plausible mechanism for the transition from concrete properties, or cues, to essences is provided. Moreover, the fundamental shotgun and storytelling mechanisms of the inherence heuristic are not clearly enough specified to distinguish them, developmentally, from associative or causal networks.

  11. Knowledge discovery in hyper-heuristic using case-based reasoning on course timetabling

    OpenAIRE

    Burke, Edmund; MacCarthy, Bart L.; Petrovic, Sanja; Qu, Rong

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a new hyper-heuristic method using Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) for solving course timetabling problems. The term Hyper-heuristics has recently been employed to refer to 'heuristics that choose heuristics' rather than heuristics that operate directly on given problems. One of the overriding motivations of hyper-heuristic methods is the attempt to develop techniques that can operate with greater generality than is currently possible. The basic idea behind this is that we main...

  12. MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC WAVES IN A PARTIALLY IONIZED FILAMENT THREAD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soler, R.; Oliver, R.; Ballester, J. L.

    2009-01-01

    Oscillations and propagating waves are commonly seen in high-resolution observations of filament threads, i.e., the fine-structures of solar filaments/prominences. Since the temperature of prominences is typically of the order of 10 4 K, the prominence plasma is only partially ionized. In this paper, we study the effect of neutrals on the wave propagation in a filament thread modeled as a partially ionized homogeneous magnetic flux tube embedded in an homogeneous and fully ionized coronal plasma. Ohmic and ambipolar magnetic diffusion are considered in the basic resistive magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations. We numerically compute the eigenfrequencies of kink, slow, and Alfven linear MHD modes and obtain analytical approximations in some cases. We find that the existence of propagating modes is constrained by the presence of critical values of the longitudinal wavenumber. In particular, the lower and upper frequency cutoffs of kink and Alfven waves owe their existence to magnetic diffusion parallel and perpendicular to magnetic field lines, respectively. The slow mode only has a lower frequency cutoff, which is caused by perpendicular magnetic diffusion and is significantly affected by the ionization degree. In addition, ion-neutral collision is the most efficient damping mechanism for short wavelengths, while ohmic diffusion dominates in the long-wavelength regime.

  13. Diagnostics of the wheel thread of railway rolling stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yu. Buryak

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. At present, the devastating impact of faulty wheels on rails on the move is a major problem of railway transport. This factor is one of the most important, which causes the shift from traditional manual methods of verification and external examination to the automated diagnostic system of rolling stock in operation. Methodology. To achieve this goal the main types of wheel damages and the way they appear are analyzed. The methods for defects and abnormalities of the wheel thread determining as well as their advantages and disadvantages were presented. Nowadays these methods are under usage in both the international practice and in the one of the CIS countries. Findings. The faulty wheel sound on the move was researched and analyzed. The necessity of using the automated system, enabling one to reduce significantly the human factor is substantiated. Originality. The method to determine the wheel thread damage on the basis of a sound diagnostic is proposed. Practical value. Automatic tracking system of the wheels condition allows performing their more qualitative diagnostics, detecting a fault at the early stage and forecasting the rate of its extension. Besides detecting the location of the faulty wheel in the rolling stock, it is also possible to trace the dynamics of the fault extension and to give the recommendations on how to eliminate it.

  14. Multi-threaded ATLAS simulation on Intel Knights Landing processors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Steven; Calafiura, Paolo; Leggett, Charles; Tsulaia, Vakhtang; Dotti, Andrea; ATLAS Collaboration

    2017-10-01

    The Knights Landing (KNL) release of the Intel Many Integrated Core (MIC) Xeon Phi line of processors is a potential game changer for HEP computing. With 72 cores and deep vector registers, the KNL cards promise significant performance benefits for highly-parallel, compute-heavy applications. Cori, the newest supercomputer at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), was delivered to its users in two phases with the first phase online at the end of 2015 and the second phase now online at the end of 2016. Cori Phase 2 is based on the KNL architecture and contains over 9000 compute nodes with 96GB DDR4 memory. ATLAS simulation with the multithreaded Athena Framework (AthenaMT) is a good potential use-case for the KNL architecture and supercomputers like Cori. ATLAS simulation jobs have a high ratio of CPU computation to disk I/O and have been shown to scale well in multi-threading and across many nodes. In this paper we will give an overview of the ATLAS simulation application with details on its multi-threaded design. Then, we will present a performance analysis of the application on KNL devices and compare it to a traditional x86 platform to demonstrate the capabilities of the architecture and evaluate the benefits of utilizing KNL platforms like Cori for ATLAS production.

  15. Molecular threading and tunable molecular recognition on DNA origami nanostructures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Na; Czajkowsky, Daniel M; Zhang, Jinjin; Qu, Jianxun; Ye, Ming; Zeng, Dongdong; Zhou, Xingfei; Hu, Jun; Shao, Zhifeng; Li, Bin; Fan, Chunhai

    2013-08-21

    The DNA origami technology holds great promise for the assembly of nanoscopic technological devices and studies of biochemical reactions at the single-molecule level. For these, it is essential to establish well controlled attachment of functional materials to predefined sites on the DNA origami nanostructures for reliable measurements and versatile applications. However, the two-sided nature of the origami scaffold has shown limitations in this regard. We hypothesized that holes of the commonly used two-dimensional DNA origami designs are large enough for the passage of single-stranded (ss)-DNA. Sufficiently long ssDNA initially located on one side of the origami should thus be able to "thread" to the other side through the holes in the origami sheet. By using an origami sheet attached with patterned biotinylated ssDNA spacers and monitoring streptavidin binding with atomic force microscopic (AFM) imaging, we provide unambiguous evidence that the biotin ligands positioned on one side have indeed threaded through to the other side. Our finding reveals a previously overlooked critical design feature that should provide new interpretations to previous experiments and new opportunities for the construction of origami structures with new functional capabilities.

  16. Automatic Thread-Level Parallelization in the Chombo AMR Library

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christen, Matthias; Keen, Noel; Ligocki, Terry; Oliker, Leonid; Shalf, John; Van Straalen, Brian; Williams, Samuel

    2011-05-26

    The increasing on-chip parallelism has some substantial implications for HPC applications. Currently, hybrid programming models (typically MPI+OpenMP) are employed for mapping software to the hardware in order to leverage the hardware?s architectural features. In this paper, we present an approach that automatically introduces thread level parallelism into Chombo, a parallel adaptive mesh refinement framework for finite difference type PDE solvers. In Chombo, core algorithms are specified in the ChomboFortran, a macro language extension to F77 that is part of the Chombo framework. This domain-specific language forms an already used target language for an automatic migration of the large number of existing algorithms into a hybrid MPI+OpenMP implementation. It also provides access to the auto-tuning methodology that enables tuning certain aspects of an algorithm to hardware characteristics. Performance measurements are presented for a few of the most relevant kernels with respect to a specific application benchmark using this technique as well as benchmark results for the entire application. The kernel benchmarks show that, using auto-tuning, up to a factor of 11 in performance was gained with 4 threads with respect to the serial reference implementation.

  17. Practical Formal Verification of MPI and Thread Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Kirby, Robert M.

    Large-scale simulation codes in science and engineering are written using the Message Passing Interface (MPI). Shared memory threads are widely used directly, or to implement higher level programming abstractions. Traditional debugging methods for MPI or thread programs are incapable of providing useful formal guarantees about coverage. They get bogged down in the sheer number of interleavings (schedules), often missing shallow bugs. In this tutorial we will introduce two practical formal verification tools: ISP (for MPI C programs) and Inspect (for Pthread C programs). Unlike other formal verification tools, ISP and Inspect run directly on user source codes (much like a debugger). They pursue only the relevant set of process interleavings, using our own customized Dynamic Partial Order Reduction algorithms. For a given test harness, DPOR allows these tools to guarantee the absence of deadlocks, instrumented MPI object leaks and communication races (using ISP), and shared memory races (using Inspect). ISP and Inspect have been used to verify large pieces of code: in excess of 10,000 lines of MPI/C for ISP in under 5 seconds, and about 5,000 lines of Pthread/C code in a few hours (and much faster with the use of a cluster or by exploiting special cases such as symmetry) for Inspect. We will also demonstrate the Microsoft Visual Studio and Eclipse Parallel Tools Platform integrations of ISP (these will be available on the LiveCD).

  18. Book review: Bayesian analysis for population ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, William A.

    2011-01-01

    Brian Dennis described the field of ecology as “fertile, uncolonized ground for Bayesian ideas.” He continued: “The Bayesian propagule has arrived at the shore. Ecologists need to think long and hard about the consequences of a Bayesian ecology. The Bayesian outlook is a successful competitor, but is it a weed? I think so.” (Dennis 2004)

  19. Fat versus Thin Threading Approach on GPUs: Application to Stochastic Simulation of Chemical Reactions

    KAUST Repository

    Klingbeil, Guido; Erban, Radek; Giles, Mike; Maini, Philip K.

    2012-01-01

    We explore two different threading approaches on a graphics processing unit (GPU) exploiting two different characteristics of the current GPU architecture. The fat thread approach tries to minimize data access time by relying on shared memory and registers potentially sacrificing parallelism. The thin thread approach maximizes parallelism and tries to hide access latencies. We apply these two approaches to the parallel stochastic simulation of chemical reaction systems using the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) by Gillespie [14]. In these cases, the proposed thin thread approach shows comparable performance while eliminating the limitation of the reaction system's size. © 2006 IEEE.

  20. Do dual-thread orthodontic mini-implants improve bone/tissue mechanical retention?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yang-Sung; Chang, Yau-Zen; Yu, Jian-Hong; Lin, Chun-Li

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this study was to understand whether the pitch relationship between micro and macro thread designs with a parametrical relationship in a dual-thread mini-implant can improve primary stability. Three types of mini-implants consisting of single-thread (ST) (0.75 mm pitch in whole length), dual-thread A (DTA) with double-start 0.375 mm pitch, and dual-thread B (DTB) with single-start 0.2 mm pitch in upper 2-mm micro thread region for performing insertion and pull-out testing. Histomorphometric analysis was performed in these specimens in evaluating peri-implant bone defects using a non-contact vision measuring system. The maximum inserted torque (Tmax) in type DTA was found to be the smallest significantly, but corresponding values found no significant difference between ST and DTB. The largest pull-out strength (Fmax) in the DTA mini-implant was found significantly greater than that for the ST mini-implant regardless of implant insertion orientation. Mini-implant engaged the cortical bone well as observed in ST and DTA types. Dual-thread mini-implant with correct micro thread pitch (parametrical relationship with macro thread pitch) in the cortical bone region can improve primary stability and enhanced mechanical retention.

  1. Fat versus Thin Threading Approach on GPUs: Application to Stochastic Simulation of Chemical Reactions

    KAUST Repository

    Klingbeil, Guido

    2012-02-01

    We explore two different threading approaches on a graphics processing unit (GPU) exploiting two different characteristics of the current GPU architecture. The fat thread approach tries to minimize data access time by relying on shared memory and registers potentially sacrificing parallelism. The thin thread approach maximizes parallelism and tries to hide access latencies. We apply these two approaches to the parallel stochastic simulation of chemical reaction systems using the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) by Gillespie [14]. In these cases, the proposed thin thread approach shows comparable performance while eliminating the limitation of the reaction system\\'s size. © 2006 IEEE.

  2. Loosening and damage mechanism of thread-joined structures in nuclear power equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang Hui

    1999-01-01

    The author proposes a loosening mechanism of thread-joined structures under vibrate environments in the nuclear power equipment and structures, which is on the base of the macro and imperceptible-mechanics analysis. It has answered the problems on the seizing, the adhesive wearing, the generation of cracks, the thread-tooth fracture. So it has a conclusion that the loosening of thread-joined structures is essential trend, in other words, the locking property of thread-pair is failure under vibrate environments

  3. Heuristic Diagrams as a Tool to Teach History of Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamizo, José A.

    2012-05-01

    The graphic organizer called here heuristic diagram as an improvement of Gowin's Vee heuristic is proposed as a tool to teach history of science. Heuristic diagrams have the purpose of helping students (or teachers, or researchers) to understand their own research considering that asks and problem-solving are central to scientific activity. The left side originally related in Gowin's Vee with philosophies, theories, models, laws or regularities now agrees with Toulmin's concepts (language, models as representation techniques and application procedures). Mexican science teachers without experience in science education research used the heuristic diagram to learn about the history of chemistry considering also in the left side two different historical times: past and present. Through a semantic differential scale teachers' attitude to the heuristic diagram was evaluated and its usefulness was demonstrated.

  4. Heuristics: foundations for a novel approach to medical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodemer, Nicolai; Hanoch, Yaniv; Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos V

    2015-03-01

    Medical decision-making is a complex process that often takes place during uncertainty, that is, when knowledge, time, and resources are limited. How can we ensure good decisions? We present research on heuristics-simple rules of thumb-and discuss how medical decision-making can benefit from these tools. We challenge the common view that heuristics are only second-best solutions by showing that they can be more accurate, faster, and easier to apply in comparison to more complex strategies. Using the example of fast-and-frugal decision trees, we illustrate how heuristics can be studied and implemented in the medical context. Finally, we suggest how a heuristic-friendly culture supports the study and application of heuristics as complementary strategies to existing decision rules.

  5. Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia

    2015-01-01

    Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on

  6. [The heuristics of reaching a diagnosis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wainstein, Eduardo

    2009-12-01

    Making a diagnosis in medicine is a complex process in which many cognitive and psychological issues are involved. After the first encounter with the patient, an unconscious process ensues to suspect the presence of a particular disease. Usually, complementary tests are requested to confirm the clinical suspicion. The interpretation of requested tests can be biased by the clinical diagnosis that was considered in the first encounter with the patient. The awareness of these sources of error is essential in the interpretation of the findings that will eventually lead to a final diagnosis. This article discusses some aspects of the heuristics involved in the adjudication of priory probabilities and provides a brief review of current concepts of the reasoning process.

  7. Heuristics and bias in rectal surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDermid, Ewan; Young, Christopher J; Moug, Susan J; Anderson, Robert G; Shepherd, Heather L

    2017-08-01

    Deciding to defunction after anterior resection can be difficult, requiring cognitive tools or heuristics. From our previous work, increasing age and risk-taking propensity were identified as heuristic biases for surgeons in Australia and New Zealand (CSSANZ), and inversely proportional to the likelihood of creating defunctioning stomas. We aimed to assess these factors for colorectal surgeons in the British Isles, and identify other potential biases. The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) was invited to complete an online survey. Questions included demographics, risk-taking propensity, sensitivity to professional criticism, self-perception of anastomotic leak rate and propensity for creating defunctioning stomas. Chi-squared testing was used to assess differences between ACPGBI and CSSANZ respondents. Multiple regression analysis identified independent surgeon predictors of stoma formation. One hundred fifty (19.2%) eligible members of the ACPGBI replied. Demographics between ACPGBI and CSSANZ groups were well-matched. Significantly more ACPGBI surgeons admitted to anastomotic leak in the last year (p < 0.001). ACPGBI surgeon age over 50 (p = 0.02), higher risk-taking propensity across several domains (p = 0.044), self-belief in a lower-than-average anastomotic leak rate (p = 0.02) and belief that the average risk of leak after anterior resection is 8% or lower (p = 0.007) were all independent predictors of less frequent stoma formation. Sensitivity to criticism from colleagues was not a predictor of stoma formation. Unrecognised surgeon factors including age, everyday risk-taking, self-belief in surgical ability and lower probability bias of anastomotic leak appear to exert an effect on decision-making in rectal surgery.

  8. Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina eMoreira

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.

  9. Analyzing bioassay data using Bayesian methods-A primer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, G.; Inkret, W.C.; Schillaci, M.E.

    1997-01-01

    The classical statistics approach used in health physics for the interpretation of measurements is deficient in that it does not allow for the consideration of needle in a haystack effects, where events that are rare in a population are being detected. In fact, this is often the case in health physics measurements, and the false positive fraction is often very large using the prescriptions of classical statistics. Bayesian statistics provides an objective methodology to ensure acceptably small false positive fractions. The authors present the basic methodology and a heuristic discussion. Examples are given using numerically generated and real bioassay data (Tritium). Various analytical models are used to fit the prior probability distribution, in order to test the sensitivity to choice of model. Parametric studies show that the normalized Bayesian decision level k α -L c /σ 0 , where σ 0 is the measurement uncertainty for zero true amount, is usually in the range from 3 to 5 depending on the true positive rate. Four times σ 0 rather than approximately two times σ 0 , as in classical statistics, would often seem a better choice for the decision level

  10. Analyzing bioassay data using Bayesian methods -- A primer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, G.; Inkret, W.C.; Schillaci, M.E.; Martz, H.F.; Little, T.T.

    2000-06-01

    The classical statistics approach used in health physics for the interpretation of measurements is deficient in that it does not take into account needle in a haystack effects, that is, correct identification of events that are rare in a population. This is often the case in health physics measurements, and the false positive fraction (the fraction of results measuring positive that are actually zero) is often very large using the prescriptions of classical statistics. Bayesian statistics provides a methodology to minimize the number of incorrect decisions (wrong calls): false positives and false negatives. The authors present the basic method and a heuristic discussion. Examples are given using numerically generated and real bioassay data for tritium. Various analytical models are used to fit the prior probability distribution in order to test the sensitivity to choice of model. Parametric studies show that for typical situations involving rare events the normalized Bayesian decision level k{sub {alpha}} = L{sub c}/{sigma}{sub 0}, where {sigma}{sub 0} is the measurement uncertainty for zero true amount, is in the range of 3 to 5 depending on the true positive rate. Four times {sigma}{sub 0} rather than approximately two times {sigma}{sub 0}, as in classical statistics, would seem a better choice for the decision level in these situations.

  11. Bayesian Travel Time Inversion adopting Gaussian Process Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauerberger, S.; Holschneider, M.

    2017-12-01

    A major application in seismology is the determination of seismic velocity models. Travel time measurements are putting an integral constraint on the velocity between source and receiver. We provide insight into travel time inversion from a correlation-based Bayesian point of view. Therefore, the concept of Gaussian process regression is adopted to estimate a velocity model. The non-linear travel time integral is approximated by a 1st order Taylor expansion. A heuristic covariance describes correlations amongst observations and a priori model. That approach enables us to assess a proxy of the Bayesian posterior distribution at ordinary computational costs. No multi dimensional numeric integration nor excessive sampling is necessary. Instead of stacking the data, we suggest to progressively build the posterior distribution. Incorporating only a single evidence at a time accounts for the deficit of linearization. As a result, the most probable model is given by the posterior mean whereas uncertainties are described by the posterior covariance.As a proof of concept, a synthetic purely 1d model is addressed. Therefore a single source accompanied by multiple receivers is considered on top of a model comprising a discontinuity. We consider travel times of both phases - direct and reflected wave - corrupted by noise. Left and right of the interface are assumed independent where the squared exponential kernel serves as covariance.

  12. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    OpenAIRE

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the re...

  13. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

     Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...

  14. Interim Report on Heuristics about Inspection Parameters: Updates to Heuristics Resulting from Refinement on Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shull, Forrest; Seaman, Carolyn; Feldman, Raimund; Haingaertner, Ralf; Regardie, Myrna

    2008-01-01

    In 2008, we have continued analyzing the inspection data in an effort to better understand the applicability and effect of the inspection heuristics on inspection outcomes. Our research goals during this period are: 1. Investigate the effect of anomalies in the dataset (e.g. the very large meeting length values for some inspections) on our results 2. Investigate the effect of the heuristics on other inspection outcome variables (e.g. effort) 3. Investigate whether the recommended ranges can be modified to give inspection planners more flexibility without sacrificing effectiveness 4. Investigate possible refinements or modifications to the heuristics for specific subdomains (partitioned, e.g., by size, domain, or Center) This memo reports our results to date towards addressing these goals. In the next section, the first goal is addressed by describing the types of anomalies we have found in our dataset, how we have addressed them, and the effect of these changes on our previously reported results. In the following section, on "methodology", we describe the analyses we have conducted to address the other three goals and the results of these analyses are described in the "results" section. Finally, we conclude with future plans for continuing our investigation.

  15. On Central Branch/Reinsurance Risk Networks: Exact Results and Heuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin Avram

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Modeling the interactions between a reinsurer and several insurers, or between a central management branch (CB and several subsidiary business branches, or between a coalition and its members, are fascinating problems, which suggest many interesting questions. Beyond two dimensions, one cannot expect exact answers. Occasionally, reductions to one dimension or heuristic simplifications yield explicit approximations, which may be useful for getting qualitative insights. In this paper, we study two such problems: the ruin problem for a two-dimensional CB network under a new mathematical model, and the problem of valuation of two-dimensional CB networks by optimal dividends. A common thread between these two problems is that the one dimensional reduction exploits the concept of invariant cones. Perhaps the most important contribution of the paper is the questions it raises; for that reason, we have found it useful to complement the particular examples solved by providing one possible formalization of the concept of a multi-dimensional risk network, which seems to us an appropriate umbrella for the kind of questions raised here.

  16. The recognition heuristic: a review of theory and tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachur, Thorsten; Todd, Peter M; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Schooler, Lael J; Goldstein, Daniel G

    2011-01-01

    The recognition heuristic is a prime example of how, by exploiting a match between mind and environment, a simple mental strategy can lead to efficient decision making. The proposal of the heuristic initiated a debate about the processes underlying the use of recognition in decision making. We review research addressing four key aspects of the recognition heuristic: (a) that recognition is often an ecologically valid cue; (b) that people often follow recognition when making inferences; (c) that recognition supersedes further cue knowledge; (d) that its use can produce the less-is-more effect - the phenomenon that lesser states of recognition knowledge can lead to more accurate inferences than more complete states. After we contrast the recognition heuristic to other related concepts, including availability and fluency, we carve out, from the existing findings, some boundary conditions of the use of the recognition heuristic as well as key questions for future research. Moreover, we summarize developments concerning the connection of the recognition heuristic with memory models. We suggest that the recognition heuristic is used adaptively and that, compared to other cues, recognition seems to have a special status in decision making. Finally, we discuss how systematic ignorance is exploited in other cognitive mechanisms (e.g., estimation and preference).

  17. Cognitive load during route selection increases reliance on spatial heuristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunyé, Tad T; Martis, Shaina B; Taylor, Holly A

    2018-05-01

    Planning routes from maps involves perceiving the symbolic environment, identifying alternate routes and applying explicit strategies and implicit heuristics to select an option. Two implicit heuristics have received considerable attention, the southern route preference and initial segment strategy. This study tested a prediction from decision-making theory that increasing cognitive load during route planning will increase reliance on these heuristics. In two experiments, participants planned routes while under conditions of minimal (0-back) or high (2-back) working memory load. In Experiment 1, we examined how memory load impacts the southern route heuristic. In Experiment 2, we examined how memory load impacts the initial segment heuristic. Results replicated earlier results demonstrating a southern route preference (Experiment 1) and initial segment strategy (Experiment 2) and further demonstrated that evidence for heuristic reliance is more likely under conditions of concurrent working memory load. Furthermore, the extent to which participants maintained efficient route selection latencies in the 2-back condition predicted the magnitude of this effect. Together, results demonstrate that working memory load increases the application of heuristics during spatial decision making, particularly when participants attempt to maintain quick decisions while managing concurrent task demands.

  18. The Recognition Heuristic: A Review of Theory and Tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten ePachur

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The recognition heuristic is a prime example of how, by exploiting a match between mind and environment, a simple mental strategy can lead to efficient decision making. The proposal of the heuristic initiated a debate about the processes underlying the use of recognition in decision making. We review research addressing four key aspects of the recognition heuristic: (a that recognition is often an ecologically valid cue; (b that people often follow recognition when making inferences; (c that recognition supersedes further cue knowledge; (d that its use can produce the less-is-more effect—the phenomenon that lesser states of recognition knowledge can lead to more accurate inferences than more complete states. After we contrast the recognition heuristic to other related concepts, including availability and fluency, we carve out, from the existing findings, some boundary conditions of the use of the recognition heuristic as well as key questions for future research. Moreover, we summarize developments concerning the connection of the recognition heuristic with memory models. We suggest that the recognition heuristic is used adaptively and that, compared to other cues, recognition seems to have a special status in decision making. Finally, we discuss how systematic ignorance is exploited in other cognitive mechanisms (e.g., estimation and preference.

  19. The Recognition Heuristic: A Review of Theory and Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachur, Thorsten; Todd, Peter M.; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Schooler, Lael J.; Goldstein, Daniel G.

    2011-01-01

    The recognition heuristic is a prime example of how, by exploiting a match between mind and environment, a simple mental strategy can lead to efficient decision making. The proposal of the heuristic initiated a debate about the processes underlying the use of recognition in decision making. We review research addressing four key aspects of the recognition heuristic: (a) that recognition is often an ecologically valid cue; (b) that people often follow recognition when making inferences; (c) that recognition supersedes further cue knowledge; (d) that its use can produce the less-is-more effect – the phenomenon that lesser states of recognition knowledge can lead to more accurate inferences than more complete states. After we contrast the recognition heuristic to other related concepts, including availability and fluency, we carve out, from the existing findings, some boundary conditions of the use of the recognition heuristic as well as key questions for future research. Moreover, we summarize developments concerning the connection of the recognition heuristic with memory models. We suggest that the recognition heuristic is used adaptively and that, compared to other cues, recognition seems to have a special status in decision making. Finally, we discuss how systematic ignorance is exploited in other cognitive mechanisms (e.g., estimation and preference). PMID:21779266

  20. Heuristics, biases and traps in managerial decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Gál

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the impact of heuristics, biases and psychological traps on the decision making. Heuristics are unconscious routines people use to cope with the complexity inherent in most decision situations. They serve as mental shortcuts that help people to simplify and structure the information encountered in the world. These heuristics could be quite useful in some situations, while in others they can lead to severe and systematic errors, based on significant deviations from the fundamental principles of statistics, probability and sound judgment. This paper focuses on illustrating the existence of the anchoring, availability, and representativeness heuristics, originally described by Tversky & Kahneman in the early 1970’s. The anchoring heuristic is a tendency to focus on the initial information, estimate or perception (even random or irrelevant number as a starting point. People tend to give disproportionate weight to the initial information they receive. The availability heuristic explains why highly imaginable or vivid information have a disproportionate effect on people’s decisions. The representativeness heuristic causes that people rely on highly specific scenarios, ignore base rates, draw conclusions based on small samples and neglect scope. Mentioned phenomena are illustrated and supported by evidence based on the statistical analysis of the results of a questionnaire.

  1. Comparative study of heuristic evaluation and usability testing methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyvalikakath, Thankam Paul; Monaco, Valerie; Thambuganipalle, Himabindu; Schleyer, Titus

    2009-01-01

    Usability methods, such as heuristic evaluation, cognitive walk-throughs and user testing, are increasingly used to evaluate and improve the design of clinical software applications. There is still some uncertainty, however, as to how those methods can be used to support the development process and evaluation in the most meaningful manner. In this study, we compared the results of a heuristic evaluation with those of formal user tests in order to determine which usability problems were detected by both methods. We conducted heuristic evaluation and usability testing on four major commercial dental computer-based patient records (CPRs), which together cover 80% of the market for chairside computer systems among general dentists. Both methods yielded strong evidence that the dental CPRs have significant usability problems. An average of 50% of empirically-determined usability problems were identified by the preceding heuristic evaluation. Some statements of heuristic violations were specific enough to precisely identify the actual usability problem that study participants encountered. Other violations were less specific, but still manifested themselves in usability problems and poor task outcomes. In this study, heuristic evaluation identified a significant portion of problems found during usability testing. While we make no assumptions about the generalizability of the results to other domains and software systems, heuristic evaluation may, under certain circumstances, be a useful tool to determine design problems early in the development cycle.

  2. Bayesian Inference using Neural Net Likelihood Models for Protein Secondary Structure Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seong-Gon Kim

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Several techniques such as Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithms, Decision Trees and other statistical or heuristic methods have been used to approach the complex non-linear task of predicting Alpha-helicies, Beta-sheets and Turns of a proteins secondary structure in the past. This project introduces a new machine learning method by using an offline trained Multilayered Perceptrons (MLP as the likelihood models within a Bayesian Inference framework to predict secondary structures proteins. Varying window sizes are used to extract neighboring amino acid information and passed back and forth between the Neural Net models and the Bayesian Inference process until there is a convergence of the posterior secondary structure probability.

  3. Artificial muscles from fishing line and sewing thread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines, Carter S; Lima, Márcio D; Li, Na; Spinks, Geoffrey M; Foroughi, Javad; Madden, John D W; Kim, Shi Hyeong; Fang, Shaoli; Jung de Andrade, Mônica; Göktepe, Fatma; Göktepe, Özer; Mirvakili, Seyed M; Naficy, Sina; Lepró, Xavier; Oh, Jiyoung; Kozlov, Mikhail E; Kim, Seon Jeong; Xu, Xiuru; Swedlove, Benjamin J; Wallace, Gordon G; Baughman, Ray H

    2014-02-21

    The high cost of powerful, large-stroke, high-stress artificial muscles has combined with performance limitations such as low cycle life, hysteresis, and low efficiency to restrict applications. We demonstrated that inexpensive high-strength polymer fibers used for fishing line and sewing thread can be easily transformed by twist insertion to provide fast, scalable, nonhysteretic, long-life tensile and torsional muscles. Extreme twisting produces coiled muscles that can contract by 49%, lift loads over 100 times heavier than can human muscle of the same length and weight, and generate 5.3 kilowatts of mechanical work per kilogram of muscle weight, similar to that produced by a jet engine. Woven textiles that change porosity in response to temperature and actuating window shutters that could help conserve energy were also demonstrated. Large-stroke tensile actuation was theoretically and experimentally shown to result from torsional actuation.

  4. Surface Analysis of the Laser Cleaned Metal Threads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokhan, M.; Hartog, F.; McPhail, D.

    The laser cleaning of the tarnished silver threads was carried out using Nd:YAG laser radiation at IR (1064 nm) and visible wavelengths (532 nm). The preliminary tests were made on the piece of silk with the silver embroidery with the clean and tarnished areas. FIBS and SIMS analysis were used for analysing the condition of the surface before and after laser irradiation. It was found that irradiation below 0.4 J/cm-2 and higher than 1.0 J/cm-2 fluences aggravates the process of tarnishing and leads to the yellowing effect. The results of preliminary tests were used for finding the optimum cleaning regime for the laser cleaning of the real museum artefact: "Women Riding Jacket" dated to the beginning of 18th century.

  5. LANDSAT menhaden and thread herring resources investigation. [Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemmerer, A. J. (Principal Investigator); Brucks, J. T.; Butler, J. A.; Faller, K. H.; Holley, H. J.; Leming, T. D.; Savastano, K. J.; Vanselous, T. M.

    1977-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. The relationship between the distribution of menhaden and selected oceanographic parameters (water color, turbidity, and possibly chlorophyll concentrations) was established. Similar relationships for thread herring were not established nor were relationships relating to the abundance of either species. Use of aircraft and LANDSAT remote sensing instruments to measure or infer a set of basic oceanographic parameters was evaluated. Parameters which could be accurately inferred included surface water temperature, salinity, and color. Water turbidity (Secchi disk) was evaluated as marginally inferrable from the LANDSAT MSS data and chlorophyll-a concentrations as less than marginal. These evaluations considered the parameters only as experienced in the two test areas using available sensors and statistical techniques.

  6. The Pleating of History: Weaving the Threads of Nationhood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Ball

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available As any etymologist knows, the word ‘text’ is derived from the past participle of the Latin verb texere, to weave. Text is therefore something that is ‘woven’. It’s a persuasive metaphor, to imagine writing in terms of the warp and weft of ideas and words, of narrative threads woven together to become a piece of fabric. The idea of history as fabric brings together a whole different set of tropes, not just of weaving, but of the very materiality of fabric. Does the fabric have a nap, or a pattern? Is it cut with the grain, or on the bias? What of its folds, its seams? All these qualities of fabric have application in the interpretation of history, and some of these images are already familiar in historical discourse.

  7. SURGICAL RECTIFICATION OF THREAD-ASSOCIATED GLOSSOPTOSIS IN PEAFOWLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Athar, A. Shakoor, G. Muhammad, M.N. Asi, and M. Saqib

    2001-02-01

    Full Text Available Domesticated and/or caged peafowls (Pavo cristatus and other fancy birds suffer from a variety of disease conditions due to unnatural habitat and suboptimal managemental practices. The present article scribes glossoptosis (downward displacement of tongue in four juvenile peafowls caused by kite-flying read wrapped around the base of tongue and terminating somewhere in the lower gastrointestinal tract. The condition was characterized by difficulty in swallowing, chronic inappetance, gasping and a fading body condition. Severing of the proximal part of thread through crop and then unwinding it from the base .the tongue affected an instant relief. As far as could be ascertained, the condition under reference has not been reported heretofore in birds especially in peafowls.

  8. Study of a Fine Grained Threaded Framework Design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, C D

    2012-01-01

    Traditionally, HEP experiments exploit the multiple cores in a CPU by having each core process one event. However, future PC designs are expected to use CPUs which double the number of processing cores at the same rate as the cost of memory falls by a factor of two. This effectively means the amount of memory per processing core will remain constant. This is a major challenge for LHC processing frameworks since the LHC is expected to deliver more complex events (e.g. greater pileup events) in the coming years while the LHC experiment's frameworks are already memory constrained. Therefore in the not so distant future we may need to be able to efficiently use multiple cores to process one event. In this presentation we will discuss a design for an HEP processing framework which can allow very fine grained parallelization within one event as well as supporting processing multiple events simultaneously while minimizing the memory footprint of the job. The design is built around the libdispatch framework created by Apple Inc. (a port for Linux is available) whose central concept is the use of task queues. This design also accommodates the reality that not all code will be thread safe and therefore allows one to easily mark modules or sub parts of modules as being thread unsafe. In addition, the design efficiently handles the requirement that events in one run must all be processed before starting to process events from a different run. After explaining the design we will provide measurements from simulating different processing scenarios where the processing times used for the simulation are drawn from processing times measured from actual CMS event processing.

  9. Study of a Fine Grained Threaded Framework Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, C. D.

    2012-12-01

    Traditionally, HEP experiments exploit the multiple cores in a CPU by having each core process one event. However, future PC designs are expected to use CPUs which double the number of processing cores at the same rate as the cost of memory falls by a factor of two. This effectively means the amount of memory per processing core will remain constant. This is a major challenge for LHC processing frameworks since the LHC is expected to deliver more complex events (e.g. greater pileup events) in the coming years while the LHC experiment's frameworks are already memory constrained. Therefore in the not so distant future we may need to be able to efficiently use multiple cores to process one event. In this presentation we will discuss a design for an HEP processing framework which can allow very fine grained parallelization within one event as well as supporting processing multiple events simultaneously while minimizing the memory footprint of the job. The design is built around the libdispatch framework created by Apple Inc. (a port for Linux is available) whose central concept is the use of task queues. This design also accommodates the reality that not all code will be thread safe and therefore allows one to easily mark modules or sub parts of modules as being thread unsafe. In addition, the design efficiently handles the requirement that events in one run must all be processed before starting to process events from a different run. After explaining the design we will provide measurements from simulating different processing scenarios where the processing times used for the simulation are drawn from processing times measured from actual CMS event processing.

  10. The Research of Screw Thread Parameter Measurement Based on Position Sensitive Detector and Laser

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tong, Q B; Ding, Z L; Chen, J C; Ai, L L; Yuan, F

    2006-01-01

    A technique and system of measuring screw thread parameter based on the theory of laser measurement is presented in this paper, which can be carried out the automated measurement of screw thread parameter. An inspection instrument was designed and produced, which included exterior imaging system of optical path, transverse displacement measurement system, axial displacement measurement system, and a module to deal with, control and assess the data in the upper system. The inspection and estimate of the screw thread contour curve were completed by using position sensitive device (PSD) as photoelectric detector to measure the coordinate data of the screw thread contour curve in the transverse section, and using precise raster to measure the axial displacement of the precision worktable under the screw thread test criterion., computer can gives a measured result according to coordinate data of the screw thread obtained by PSD. The relation between measured spot and image is established, and optimum design of the system organization are introduced, including the image length of receiving lens focal length optical system and the choice of PSD , and some main factor affected measuring precision are analyzed. The experimental results show that the measurement uncertainty of screw thread minor diameter can reach 0. 5μm, which can meet most requests for the measurement of screw thread parameter

  11. Permission-based separation logic for multi-threaded Java programs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amighi, A.; Haack, Christian; Huisman, Marieke; Hurlin, C.

    This paper presents a program logic for reasoning about multithreaded Java-like programs with concurrency primitives such as dynamic thread creation, thread joining and reentrant object monitors. The logic is based on concurrent separation logic. It is the first detailed adaptation of concurrent

  12. During Threaded Discussions Are Non-Native English Speakers Always at a Disadvantage?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer Willner, Lynn

    2014-01-01

    When participating in threaded discussions, under what conditions might non¬native speakers of English (NNSE) be at a comparative disadvantage to their classmates who are native speakers of English (NSE)? This study compares the threaded discussion perspectives of closely-matched NNSE and NSE adult students having different levels of threaded…

  13. Use of Nitrocarburizing for Strengthening Threaded Joints of Drill Pipes from Medium-Carbon Alloy Steels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priymak, E. Yu.; Stepanchukova, A. V.; Yakovleva, I. L.; Tereshchenko, N. A.

    2015-05-01

    Nitrocarburizing is tested at the Drill Equipment Plant for reinforcing threaded joints of drill pipes for units with retrievable core receiver (RCR). The effect of the nitrocarburizing on the mechanical properties of steels of different alloying systems is considered. Steels for the production of threaded joints of drill pipes are recommended.

  14. TOUR CONSTRUCTION HEURISTICS FOR AN ORDER SEQUENCING PROBLEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    De Villiers, A. P.

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available An order picking system that requires pickers to move in a clockwise direction around a picking line with fixed locations is considered. The problem is divided into three tiers. The tier in which orders must be sequenced is addressed. Eight tour construction heuristics are developed and implemented for an order picking system operating in unidirectional picking lines. Two classes of tour construction heuristics the tour construction starting position ( and the tour construction ending position ( are developed to sequence orders in a picking line. All algorithms are tested and compared using real life data sets. The best solution quality was obtained by a heuristic with adaptations.

  15. Solving Large Clustering Problems with Meta-Heuristic Search

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turkensteen, Marcel; Andersen, Kim Allan; Bang-Jensen, Jørgen

    In Clustering Problems, groups of similar subjects are to be retrieved from data sets. In this paper, Clustering Problems with the frequently used Minimum Sum-of-Squares Criterion are solved using meta-heuristic search. Tabu search has proved to be a successful methodology for solving optimization...... problems, but applications to large clustering problems are rare. The simulated annealing heuristic has mainly been applied to relatively small instances. In this paper, we implement tabu search and simulated annealing approaches and compare them to the commonly used k-means approach. We find that the meta-heuristic...

  16. Motor heuristics and embodied choices: how to choose and act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raab, Markus

    2017-08-01

    Human performance requires choosing what to do and how to do it. The goal of this theoretical contribution is to advance understanding of how the motor and cognitive components of choices are intertwined. From a holistic perspective I extend simple heuristics that have been tested in cognitive tasks to motor tasks, coining the term motor heuristics. Similarly I extend the concept of embodied cognition, that has been tested in simple sensorimotor processes changing decisions, to complex sport behavior coining the term embodied choices. Thus both motor heuristics and embodied choices explain complex behavior such as studied in sport and exercise psychology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Heuristic Portfolio Trading Rules with Capital Gain Taxes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Marcel; Gallmeyer, Michael

    2016-01-01

    We study the out-of-sample performance of portfolio trading strategies used when an investor faces capital gain taxation and proportional transaction costs. Overlaying simple tax trading heuristics on trading strategies improves out-of-sample performance. For medium to large transaction costs......, no trading strategy can outperform a 1/N trading strategy augmented with a tax heuristic, not even the most tax and transaction cost-efficient buy-and-hold strategy. Overall, the best strategy is 1/N augmented with a heuristic that allows for a fixed deviation in absolute portfolio weights. Our results thus...... show that the best trading strategies balance diversification considerations and tax considerations....

  18. The beauty of simple models: Themes in recognition heuristic research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel G. Goldstein

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The advantage of models that do not use flexible parameters is that one can precisely show to what degree they predict behavior, and in what situations. In three issues of this journal, the recognition heuristic has been examined carefully from many points of view. We comment here on four themes, the use of optimization models to understand the rationality of heuristics, the generalization of the recognition input beyond a binary judgment, new conditions for less-is-more effects, and the importance of specifying boundary conditions for cognitive heuristics.

  19. Servicing a globally broadcast interrupt signal in a multi-threaded computer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attinella, John E.; Davis, Kristan D.; Musselman, Roy G.; Satterfield, David L.

    2015-12-29

    Methods, apparatuses, and computer program products for servicing a globally broadcast interrupt signal in a multi-threaded computer comprising a plurality of processor threads. Embodiments include an interrupt controller indicating in a plurality of local interrupt status locations that a globally broadcast interrupt signal has been received by the interrupt controller. Embodiments also include a thread determining that a local interrupt status location corresponding to the thread indicates that the globally broadcast interrupt signal has been received by the interrupt controller. Embodiments also include the thread processing one or more entries in a global interrupt status bit queue based on whether global interrupt status bits associated with the globally broadcast interrupt signal are locked. Each entry in the global interrupt status bit queue corresponds to a queued global interrupt.

  20. Performance improvement of developed program by using multi-thread technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Surasak Jabal

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This research presented how to use a multi-thread programming technique to improve the performance of a program written by Windows Presentation Foundation (WPF. The Computer Assisted Instruction (CAI software, named GAME24, was selected to use as a case study. This study composed of two main parts. The first part was about design and modification of the program structure upon the Object Oriented Programing (OOP approach. The second part was about coding the program using the multi-thread technique which the number of threads were based on the calculated Catalan number. The result showed that the multi-thread programming technique increased the performance of the program 44%-88% compared to the single-thread technique. In addition, it has been found that the number of cores in the CPU also increase the performance of multithreaded program proportionally.

  1. Self-cleaning threaded rod spinneret for high-efficiency needleless electrospinning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Gaofeng; Jiang, Jiaxin; Wang, Xiang; Li, Wenwang; Zhong, Weizheng; Guo, Shumin

    2018-07-01

    High-efficiency production of nanofibers is the key to the application of electrospinning technology. This work focuses on multi-jet electrospinning, in which a threaded rod electrode is utilized as the needless spinneret to achieve high-efficiency production of nanofibers. A slipper block, which fits into and moves through the threaded rod, is designed to transfer polymer solution evenly to the surface of the rod spinneret. The relative motion between the slipper block and the threaded rod electrode promotes the instable fluctuation of the solution surface, thus the rotation of threaded rod electrode decreases the critical voltage for the initial multi-jet ejection and the diameter of nanofibers. The residual solution on the surface of threaded rod is cleaned up by the moving slipper block, showing a great self-cleaning ability, which ensures the stable multi-jet ejection and increases the productivity of nanofibers. Each thread of the threaded rod electrode serves as an independent spinneret, which enhances the electric field strength and constrains the position of the Taylor cone, resulting in high productivity of uniform nanofibers. The diameter of nanofibers decreases with the increase of threaded rod rotation speed, and the productivity increases with the solution flow rate. The rotation of electrode provides an excess force for the ejection of charged jets, which also contributes to the high-efficiency production of nanofibers. The maximum productivity of nanofibers from the threaded rod spinneret is 5-6 g/h, about 250-300 times as high as that from the single-needle spinneret. The self-cleaning threaded rod spinneret is an effective way to realize continuous multi-jet electrospinning, which promotes industrial applications of uniform nanofibrous membrane.

  2. The Effects of using VoiceThread on Students’ Listening Comprehension and Attitudes Toward using VoiceThread

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oraib Mango

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The current study investigated the effects of the use of VoiceThread (VT on the listening comprehension and attitudes of college students of Arabic as a foreign language. Thirty-five students in two 10-week classes of beginning Arabic participated in this study. The instruction in both classes was the same except that, for one group, the instruction was supplemented by the use of VT to enhance listening and speaking skills during the 10 weeks. Upon completion of the class, students using VT showed superior listening skills. Moreover, an Attitude and Engagement survey showed that the students enjoyed using VT and viewed it as a valuable tool that enhanced their language learning.

  3. Bayesian seismic AVO inversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buland, Arild

    2002-07-01

    A new linearized AVO inversion technique is developed in a Bayesian framework. The objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity and density. Distributions for other elastic parameters can also be assessed, for example acoustic impedance, shear impedance and P-wave to S-wave velocity ratio. The inversion algorithm is based on the convolutional model and a linearized weak contrast approximation of the Zoeppritz equation. The solution is represented by a Gaussian posterior distribution with explicit expressions for the posterior expectation and covariance, hence exact prediction intervals for the inverted parameters can be computed under the specified model. The explicit analytical form of the posterior distribution provides a computationally fast inversion method. Tests on synthetic data show that all inverted parameters were almost perfectly retrieved when the noise approached zero. With realistic noise levels, acoustic impedance was the best determined parameter, while the inversion provided practically no information about the density. The inversion algorithm has also been tested on a real 3-D dataset from the Sleipner Field. The results show good agreement with well logs but the uncertainty is high. The stochastic model includes uncertainties of both the elastic parameters, the wavelet and the seismic and well log data. The posterior distribution is explored by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. The inversion algorithm has been tested on a seismic line from the Heidrun Field with two wells located on the line. The uncertainty of the estimated wavelet is low. In the Heidrun examples the effect of including uncertainty of the wavelet and the noise level was marginal with respect to the AVO inversion results. We have developed a 3-D linearized AVO inversion method with spatially coupled model parameters where the objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S

  4. Economic tour package model using heuristic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Syariza Abdul; Benjamin, Aida Mauziah; Bakar, Engku Muhammad Nazri Engku Abu

    2014-07-01

    A tour-package is a prearranged tour that includes products and services such as food, activities, accommodation, and transportation, which are sold at a single price. Since the competitiveness within tourism industry is very high, many of the tour agents try to provide attractive tour-packages in order to meet tourist satisfaction as much as possible. Some of the criteria that are considered by the tourist are the number of places to be visited and the cost of the tour-packages. Previous studies indicate that tourists tend to choose economical tour-packages and aiming to visit as many places as they can cover. Thus, this study proposed tour-package model using heuristic approach. The aim is to find economical tour-packages and at the same time to propose as many places as possible to be visited by tourist in a given geographical area particularly in Langkawi Island. The proposed model considers only one starting point where the tour starts and ends at an identified hotel. This study covers 31 most attractive places in Langkawi Island from various categories of tourist attractions. Besides, the allocation of period for lunch and dinner are included in the proposed itineraries where it covers 11 popular restaurants around Langkawi Island. In developing the itinerary, the proposed heuristic approach considers time window for each site (hotel/restaurant/place) so that it represents real world implementation. We present three itineraries with different time constraints (1-day, 2-day and 3-day tour-package). The aim of economic model is to minimize the tour-package cost as much as possible by considering entrance fee of each visited place. We compare the proposed model with our uneconomic model from our previous study. The uneconomic model has no limitation to the cost with the aim to maximize the number of places to be visited. Comparison between the uneconomic and economic itinerary has shown that the proposed model have successfully achieved the objective that

  5. Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

  6. Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuelin; Lord-Bessen, Jennifer; Shiyko, Mariya; Loeb, Rebecca

    2018-01-01

    This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles. Technical difficulties are addressed by a hypothetical, worked-out example. We show how Bayesian computation can be broken down into a series of simpler calculations, which can then be assembled together to complete a computationally more complex model. The details are described much more explicitly than what is typically available in elementary introductions to Bayesian modeling so that readers are not overwhelmed by the mathematics. Moreover, the provided computer program shows how Bayesian LCA can be implemented with relative ease. The computer program is then applied in a large, real-world data set and explained line-by-line. We outline the general steps in how to extend these considerations to other methodological applications. We conclude with suggestions for further readings.

  7. Kernel Bayesian ART and ARTMAP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuyama, Naoki; Loo, Chu Kiong; Dawood, Farhan

    2018-02-01

    Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) is one of the successful approaches to resolving "the plasticity-stability dilemma" in neural networks, and its supervised learning model called ARTMAP is a powerful tool for classification. Among several improvements, such as Fuzzy or Gaussian based models, the state of art model is Bayesian based one, while solving the drawbacks of others. However, it is known that the Bayesian approach for the high dimensional and a large number of data requires high computational cost, and the covariance matrix in likelihood becomes unstable. This paper introduces Kernel Bayesian ART (KBA) and ARTMAP (KBAM) by integrating Kernel Bayes' Rule (KBR) and Correntropy Induced Metric (CIM) to Bayesian ART (BA) and ARTMAP (BAM), respectively, while maintaining the properties of BA and BAM. The kernel frameworks in KBA and KBAM are able to avoid the curse of dimensionality. In addition, the covariance-free Bayesian computation by KBR provides the efficient and stable computational capability to KBA and KBAM. Furthermore, Correntropy-based similarity measurement allows improving the noise reduction ability even in the high dimensional space. The simulation experiments show that KBA performs an outstanding self-organizing capability than BA, and KBAM provides the superior classification ability than BAM, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Color waves : a simple heuristic for choosing false colors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overveld, van C.W.A.M.

    1997-01-01

    A simple heuristic is presented for choosing false colors for visualizing scalar functions on two-dimensional domains. The color scheme allows inspection of the function on several length scales simultanously.

  9. Expanding the Possibilities of AIS Data with Heuristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bjørnar Brende Smestad

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Automatic Identification System (AIS is primarily used as a tracking system for ships, but with the launch of satellites to collect these data, new and previously untested possibilities are emerging. This paper presents the development of heuristics for establishing the specific ship type using information retrieved from AIS data alone. These heuristics expand the possibilities of AIS data, as the specific ship type is vital for several transportation research cases, such as emission analyses of ship traffic and studies on slow steaming. The presented method for developing heuristics can be used for a wider range of vessels. These heuristics may form the basis of large-scale studies on ship traffic using AIS data when it is not feasible or desirable to use commercial ship data registers.

  10. Complex Chemical Reaction Networks from Heuristics-Aided Quantum Chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rappoport, Dmitrij; Galvin, Cooper J; Zubarev, Dmitry Yu; Aspuru-Guzik, Alán

    2014-03-11

    While structures and reactivities of many small molecules can be computed efficiently and accurately using quantum chemical methods, heuristic approaches remain essential for modeling complex structures and large-scale chemical systems. Here, we present a heuristics-aided quantum chemical methodology applicable to complex chemical reaction networks such as those arising in cell metabolism and prebiotic chemistry. Chemical heuristics offer an expedient way of traversing high-dimensional reactive potential energy surfaces and are combined here with quantum chemical structure optimizations, which yield the structures and energies of the reaction intermediates and products. Application of heuristics-aided quantum chemical methodology to the formose reaction reproduces the experimentally observed reaction products, major reaction pathways, and autocatalytic cycles.

  11. Impact of heuristics in clustering large biological networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafin, Md Kishwar; Kabir, Kazi Lutful; Ridwan, Iffatur; Anannya, Tasmiah Tamzid; Karim, Rashid Saadman; Hoque, Mohammad Mozammel; Rahman, M Sohel

    2015-12-01

    Traditional clustering algorithms often exhibit poor performance for large networks. On the contrary, greedy algorithms are found to be relatively efficient while uncovering functional modules from large biological networks. The quality of the clusters produced by these greedy techniques largely depends on the underlying heuristics employed. Different heuristics based on different attributes and properties perform differently in terms of the quality of the clusters produced. This motivates us to design new heuristics for clustering large networks. In this paper, we have proposed two new heuristics and analyzed the performance thereof after incorporating those with three different combinations in a recently celebrated greedy clustering algorithm named SPICi. We have extensively analyzed the effectiveness of these new variants. The results are found to be promising. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. The priority heuristic: making choices without trade-offs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandstätter, Eduard; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hertwig, Ralph

    2006-04-01

    Bernoulli's framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at variance with expected utility, the authors generalize the framework of fast and frugal heuristics from inferences to preferences. The priority heuristic predicts (a) the Allais paradox, (b) risk aversion for gains if probabilities are high, (c) risk seeking for gains if probabilities are low (e.g., lottery tickets), (d) risk aversion for losses if probabilities are low (e.g., buying insurance), (e) risk seeking for losses if probabilities are high, (f) the certainty effect, (g) the possibility effect, and (h) intransitivities. The authors test how accurately the heuristic predicts people's choices, compared with previously proposed heuristics and 3 modifications of expected utility theory: security-potential/aspiration theory, transfer-of-attention-exchange model, and cumulative prospect theory. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Heuristic and algorithmic processing in English, mathematics, and science education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharps, Matthew J; Hess, Adam B; Price-Sharps, Jana L; Teh, Jane

    2008-01-01

    Many college students experience difficulties in basic academic skills. Recent research suggests that much of this difficulty may lie in heuristic competency--the ability to use and successfully manage general cognitive strategies. In the present study, the authors evaluated this possibility. They compared participants' performance on a practice California Basic Educational Skills Test and on a series of questions in the natural sciences with heuristic and algorithmic performance on a series of mathematics and reading comprehension exercises. Heuristic competency in mathematics was associated with better scores in science and mathematics. Verbal and algorithmic skills were associated with better reading comprehension. These results indicate the importance of including heuristic training in educational contexts and highlight the importance of a relatively domain-specific approach to questions of cognition in higher education.

  14. The Priority Heuristic: Making Choices Without Trade-Offs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandstätter, Eduard; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hertwig, Ralph

    2010-01-01

    Bernoulli's framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at variance with expected utility, we generalize the framework of fast and frugal heuristics from inferences to preferences. The priority heuristic predicts (i) Allais' paradox, (ii) risk aversion for gains if probabilities are high, (iii) risk seeking for gains if probabilities are low (lottery tickets), (iv) risk aversion for losses if probabilities are low (buying insurance), (v) risk seeking for losses if probabilities are high, (vi) certainty effect, (vii) possibility effect, and (viii) intransitivities. We test how accurately the heuristic predicts people's choices, compared to previously proposed heuristics and three modifications of expected utility theory: security-potential/aspiration theory, transfer-of-attention-exchange model, and cumulative prospect theory. PMID:16637767

  15. Theory of Randomized Search Heuristics in Combinatorial Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    The rigorous mathematical analysis of randomized search heuristics(RSHs) with respect to their expected runtime is a growing research area where many results have been obtained in recent years. This class of heuristics includes well-known approaches such as Randomized Local Search (RLS), the Metr......The rigorous mathematical analysis of randomized search heuristics(RSHs) with respect to their expected runtime is a growing research area where many results have been obtained in recent years. This class of heuristics includes well-known approaches such as Randomized Local Search (RLS...... analysis of randomized algorithms to RSHs. Mostly, the expected runtime of RSHs on selected problems is analzyed. Thereby, we understand why and when RSHs are efficient optimizers and, conversely, when they cannot be efficient. The tutorial will give an overview on the analysis of RSHs for solving...

  16. Exploring the heuristic value of nonpersonal data for sexual- and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Exploring the heuristic value of nonpersonal data for sexual- and ... African Safety Promotion: A Journal of Injury and Violence Prevention ... African provinces and towns were analysed to identify trends, and visually represent the number of ...

  17. Usage of Major Heuristics in Property Investment Valuation in Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Toshiba

    Key words: Investment Valuation, Major Heuristics, Nigeria,. Property. ... given, estimated, or implied and then proceeds to use this information as the basis of ..... study areas take into account the effect of costly floor and wall finishes in their ...

  18. ADVANCED SCHEDULER FOR COOPERATIVE EXECUTION OF THREADS ON MULTI-CORE SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. N. Karasik

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Three architectures of the cooperative thread scheduler in a multithreaded application that is executed on a multi-core system are considered. Architecture A0 is based on the synchronization and scheduling facilities, which are provided by the operating system. Architecture A1 introduces a new synchronization primitive and a single queue of the blocked threads in the scheduler, which reduces the interaction activity between the threads and operating system, and significantly speed up the processes of blocking and unblocking the threads. Architecture A2 replaces the single queue of blocked threads with dedicated queues, one for each of the synchronizing primitives, extends the number of internal states of the primitive, reduces the inter- dependence of the scheduling threads, and further significantly speeds up the processes of blocking and unblocking the threads. All scheduler architectures are implemented on Windows operating systems and based on the User Mode Scheduling. Important experimental results are obtained for multithreaded applications that implement two blocked parallel algorithms of solving the linear algebraic equation systems by the Gaussian elimination. The algorithms differ in the way of the data distribution among threads and by the thread synchronization models. The number of threads varied from 32 to 7936. Architecture A1 shows the acceleration of up to 8.65% and the architecture A2 shows the acceleration of up to 11.98% compared to A0 architecture for the blocked parallel algorithms computing the triangular form and performing the back substitution. On the back substitution stage of the algorithms, architecture A1 gives the acceleration of up to 125%, and architecture A2 gives the acceleration of up to 413% compared to architecture A0. The experiments clearly show that the proposed architectures, A1 and A2 outperform A0 depending on the number of thread blocking and unblocking operations, which happen during the execution of

  19. No Need to Get Emotional? Emotions and Heuristics

    OpenAIRE

    Szigeti, Andras

    2013-01-01

    Many believe that values are crucially dependent on emotions. This paper focuses on epistemic aspects of the putative link between emotions and value by asking two related questions. First, how exactly are emotions supposed to latch onto or track values? And second, how well suited are emotions to detecting or learning about values? To answer the first question, the paper develops the heuristics-model of emotions. This approach models emotions as sui generis heuristics of value. The empirical...

  20. Neural basis of scientific innovation induced by heuristic prototype.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junlong Luo

    Full Text Available A number of major inventions in history have been based on bionic imitation. Heuristics, by applying biological systems to the creation of artificial devices and machines, might be one of the most critical processes in scientific innovation. In particular, prototype heuristics propositions that innovation may engage automatic activation of a prototype such as a biological system to form novel associations between a prototype's function and problem-solving. We speculated that the cortical dissociation between the automatic activation and forming novel associations in innovation is critical point to heuristic creativity. In the present study, novel and old scientific innovations (NSI and OSI were selected as experimental materials in using learning-testing paradigm to explore the neural basis of scientific innovation induced by heuristic prototype. College students were required to resolve NSI problems (to which they did not know the answers and OSI problems (to which they knew the answers. From two fMRI experiments, our results showed that the subjects could resolve NSI when provided with heuristic prototypes. In Experiment 1, it was found that the lingual gyrus (LG; BA18 might be related to prototype heuristics in college students resolving NSI after learning a relative prototype. In Experiment 2, the LG (BA18 and precuneus (BA31 were significantly activated for NSI compared to OSI when college students learned all prototypes one day before the test. In addition, the mean beta-values of these brain regions of NSI were all correlated with the behavior accuracy of NSI. As our hypothesis indicated, the findings suggested that the LG might be involved in forming novel associations using heuristic information, while the precuneus might be involved in the automatic activation of heuristic prototype during scientific innovation.

  1. Neural basis of scientific innovation induced by heuristic prototype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Junlong; Li, Wenfu; Qiu, Jiang; Wei, Dongtao; Liu, Yijun; Zhang, Qinlin

    2013-01-01

    A number of major inventions in history have been based on bionic imitation. Heuristics, by applying biological systems to the creation of artificial devices and machines, might be one of the most critical processes in scientific innovation. In particular, prototype heuristics propositions that innovation may engage automatic activation of a prototype such as a biological system to form novel associations between a prototype's function and problem-solving. We speculated that the cortical dissociation between the automatic activation and forming novel associations in innovation is critical point to heuristic creativity. In the present study, novel and old scientific innovations (NSI and OSI) were selected as experimental materials in using learning-testing paradigm to explore the neural basis of scientific innovation induced by heuristic prototype. College students were required to resolve NSI problems (to which they did not know the answers) and OSI problems (to which they knew the answers). From two fMRI experiments, our results showed that the subjects could resolve NSI when provided with heuristic prototypes. In Experiment 1, it was found that the lingual gyrus (LG; BA18) might be related to prototype heuristics in college students resolving NSI after learning a relative prototype. In Experiment 2, the LG (BA18) and precuneus (BA31) were significantly activated for NSI compared to OSI when college students learned all prototypes one day before the test. In addition, the mean beta-values of these brain regions of NSI were all correlated with the behavior accuracy of NSI. As our hypothesis indicated, the findings suggested that the LG might be involved in forming novel associations using heuristic information, while the precuneus might be involved in the automatic activation of heuristic prototype during scientific innovation.

  2. Motor heuristics and embodied choices: how to choose and act

    OpenAIRE

    Raab, M

    2017-01-01

    © 2017 Elsevier LtdHuman performance requires choosing what to do and how to do it. The goal of this theoretical contribution is to advance understanding of how the motor and cognitive components of choices are intertwined. From a holistic perspective I extend simple heuristics that have been tested in cognitive tasks to motor tasks, coining the term motor heuristics. Similarly I extend the concept of embodied cognition, that has been tested in simple sensorimotor processes changing decisions...

  3. Heuristics Miner for E-Commerce Visitor Access Pattern Representation

    OpenAIRE

    Kartina Diah Kesuma Wardhani; Wawan Yunanto

    2017-01-01

    E-commerce click stream data can form a certain pattern that describe visitor behavior while surfing the e-commerce website. This pattern can be used to initiate a design to determine alternative access sequence on the website. This research use heuristic miner algorithm to determine the pattern. σ-Algorithm and Genetic Mining are methods used for pattern recognition with frequent sequence item set approach. Heuristic Miner is an evolved form of those methods. σ-Algorithm assume that an activ...

  4. Discovery of IPV6 Router Interface Addresses via Heuristic Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS DISCOVERY OF IPV6 ROUTER INTERFACE ADDRESSES VIA HEURISTIC METHODS by Matthew D. Gray September...AND SUBTITLE DISCOVERY OF IPV6 ROUTER INTERFACE ADDRESSES VIA HEURISTIC METHODS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS CNS-1111445 6. AUTHOR(S) Matthew D. Gray 7...Internet Assigned Numbers Authority, there is continued pressure for widespread IPv6 adoption. Because the IPv6 address space is orders of magnitude

  5. Gene selection heuristic algorithm for nutrigenomics studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valour, D; Hue, I; Grimard, B; Valour, B

    2013-07-15

    Large datasets from -omics studies need to be deeply investigated. The aim of this paper is to provide a new method (LEM method) for the search of transcriptome and metabolome connections. The heuristic algorithm here described extends the classical canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to a high number of variables (without regularization) and combines well-conditioning and fast-computing in "R." Reduced CCA models are summarized in PageRank matrices, the product of which gives a stochastic matrix that resumes the self-avoiding walk covered by the algorithm. Then, a homogeneous Markov process applied to this stochastic matrix converges the probabilities of interconnection between genes, providing a selection of disjointed subsets of genes. This is an alternative to regularized generalized CCA for the determination of blocks within the structure matrix. Each gene subset is thus linked to the whole metabolic or clinical dataset that represents the biological phenotype of interest. Moreover, this selection process reaches the aim of biologists who often need small sets of genes for further validation or extended phenotyping. The algorithm is shown to work efficiently on three published datasets, resulting in meaningfully broadened gene networks.

  6. The emotional reasoning heuristic in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muris, P; Merckelbach, H; van Spauwen, I

    2003-03-01

    A previous study by Arntz, Rauner, and Van den Hout (1995; Behaviour Research and Therapy, 33, 917-925) has shown that adult anxiety patients tend to infer danger not only on the basis of objective danger information, but also on the basis of anxiety response information. The current study examined whether this so-called emotional reasoning phenomenon also occurs in children. Normal primary school children (N = 101) first completed scales tapping anxiety disorders symptoms, anxiety sensitivity, and trait anxiety. Next, they were asked to rate danger levels of scripts in which objective danger versus objective safety and anxiety response versus no anxiety response were systematically varied. Evidence was found for a general emotional reasoning effect. That is, children's danger ratings were not only a function of objective danger information, but also, in the case of objective safety scripts, by anxiety response information. This emotional reasoning effect was predicted by levels of anxiety sensitivity and trait anxiety. More specifically, high levels of anxiety sensitivity and trait anxiety were accompanied by a greater tendency to use anxiety-response information as an heuristic for assessing dangerousness of safety scripts. Implications of these findings are briefly discussed.

  7. New insights into diversification of hyper-heuristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhilei; Jiang, He; Xuan, Jifeng; Hu, Yan; Luo, Zhongxuan

    2014-10-01

    There has been a growing research trend of applying hyper-heuristics for problem solving, due to their ability of balancing the intensification and the diversification with low level heuristics. Traditionally, the diversification mechanism is mostly realized by perturbing the incumbent solutions to escape from local optima. In this paper, we report our attempt toward providing a new diversification mechanism, which is based on the concept of instance perturbation. In contrast to existing approaches, the proposed mechanism achieves the diversification by perturbing the instance under solving, rather than the solutions. To tackle the challenge of incorporating instance perturbation into hyper-heuristics, we also design a new hyper-heuristic framework HIP-HOP (recursive acronym of HIP-HOP is an instance perturbation-based hyper-heuristic optimization procedure), which employs a grammar guided high level strategy to manipulate the low level heuristics. With the expressive power of the grammar, the constraints, such as the feasibility of the output solution could be easily satisfied. Numerical results and statistical tests over both the Ising spin glass problem and the p -median problem instances show that HIP-HOP is able to achieve promising performances. Furthermore, runtime distribution analysis reveals that, although being relatively slow at the beginning, HIP-HOP is able to achieve competitive solutions once given sufficient time.

  8. Interliminal Design: Understanding cognitive heuristics to mitigate design distortion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew McCollough

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive heuristics are mental shortcuts adapted over time to enable rapid interpretation of our complex environment. They are intrinsic to human cognition and resist modification. Heuristics applied outside the context to which they are best suited are termed cognitive bias, and are the cause of systematic errors in judgment and reasoning. As both a cognitive and intuitive discipline, design by individuals is vulnerable to context-inappropriate heuristic usage. Designing in groups can act positively to counterbalance these tendencies, but is subject to heuristic misuse and biases particular to social environments. Mismatch between desired and actual outcomes– termed here, design distortion – occurs when such usage goes unnoticed and unaddressed, and can affect multiple dimensions of a system. We propose a methodology, interliminal design, emerging from the Program in Collaborative Design at Pacific Northwest College of Art, to specifically address the influence of cognitive heuristics in design. This adaptive approach involves reflective, dialogic, inquiry-driven practices intended to increase awareness of heuristic usage, and identify aspects of the design process vulnerable to misuse on both individual and group levels. By facilitating the detection and mitigation of potentially costly errors in judgment and decision-making that create distortion, such metacognitive techniques can meaningfully improve design.

  9. Interactive Instruction in Bayesian Inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Azam; Breslav, Simon; Hornbæk, Kasper

    2018-01-01

    An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction. These pri......An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction....... These principles concern coherence, personalization, signaling, segmenting, multimedia, spatial contiguity, and pretraining. Principles of self-explanation and interactivity are also applied. Four experiments on the Mammography Problem showed that these principles help participants answer the questions...... that an instructional approach to improving human performance in Bayesian inference is a promising direction....

  10. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  11. Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)

    2017-09-01

    Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

  12. Beyond rational expectations: the effects of heuristic switching in an overlapping generations model

    OpenAIRE

    Boone, Brecht; Quaghebeur, Ewoud

    2018-01-01

    We explore the transitional dynamics in an Overlapping Generations framework with and without heuristic switching. Agents use simple heuristics to forecast the interest rate and the real wage. The fraction of agents using a specific heuristic depends on its relative forecasting performance. In the absence of heuristic switching, the results indicate that there is a lot of variation in the transitional dynamics over different parameter values and heuristics. They might even oscillate or diverg...

  13. Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming; Zhang, Jian

    2009-01-01

    Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly

  14. Bayesian Network Induction via Local Neighborhoods

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Margaritis, Dimitris

    1999-01-01

    .... We present an efficient algorithm for learning Bayesian networks from data. Our approach constructs Bayesian networks by first identifying each node's Markov blankets, then connecting nodes in a consistent way...

  15. Can a significance test be genuinely Bayesian?

    OpenAIRE

    Pereira, Carlos A. de B.; Stern, Julio Michael; Wechsler, Sergio

    2008-01-01

    The Full Bayesian Significance Test, FBST, is extensively reviewed. Its test statistic, a genuine Bayesian measure of evidence, is discussed in detail. Its behavior in some problems of statistical inference like testing for independence in contingency tables is discussed.

  16. Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS

    CERN Document Server

    Ntzoufras, Ioannis

    2009-01-01

    A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...

  17. Evaluating the use of laser radiation in cleaning of copper embroidery threads on archaeological Egyptian textiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel-Kareem, Omar; Harith, M.A.

    2008-01-01

    Cleaning of copper embroidery threads on archaeological textiles is still a complicated conservation process, as most textile conservators believe that the advantages of using traditional cleaning techniques are less than their disadvantages. In this study, the uses of laser cleaning method and two modified recipes of wet cleaning methods were evaluated for cleaning of the corroded archaeological Egyptian copper embroidery threads on an archaeological Egyptian textile fabric. Some corroded copper thread samples were cleaned using modified recipes of wet cleaning method; other corroded copper thread samples were cleaned with Q-switched Nd:YAG laser radiation of wavelength 532 nm. All tested metal thread samples before and after cleaning were investigated using a light microscope and a scanning electron microscope with an energy dispersive X-ray analysis unit. Also the laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique was used for the elemental analysis of laser-cleaned samples to follow up the laser cleaning procedure. The results show that laser cleaning is the most effective method among all tested methods in the cleaning of corroded copper threads. It can be used safely in removing the corrosion products without any damage to both metal strips and fibrous core. The tested laser cleaning technique has solved the problems caused by other traditional cleaning techniques that are commonly used in the cleaning of metal threads on museum textiles

  18. Evaluating the use of laser radiation in cleaning of copper embroidery threads on archaeological Egyptian textiles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abdel-Kareem, Omar [Conservation Department, Faculty of Archaeology, Cairo University, El-Gamaa Street, El-Giza (Egypt)], E-mail: Omaa67@yahoo.com; Harith, M.A. [National Institute of Laser Enhanced Science, Cairo University (Egypt)], E-mail: mharithm@niles.edu.eg

    2008-07-15

    Cleaning of copper embroidery threads on archaeological textiles is still a complicated conservation process, as most textile conservators believe that the advantages of using traditional cleaning techniques are less than their disadvantages. In this study, the uses of laser cleaning method and two modified recipes of wet cleaning methods were evaluated for cleaning of the corroded archaeological Egyptian copper embroidery threads on an archaeological Egyptian textile fabric. Some corroded copper thread samples were cleaned using modified recipes of wet cleaning method; other corroded copper thread samples were cleaned with Q-switched Nd:YAG laser radiation of wavelength 532 nm. All tested metal thread samples before and after cleaning were investigated using a light microscope and a scanning electron microscope with an energy dispersive X-ray analysis unit. Also the laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique was used for the elemental analysis of laser-cleaned samples to follow up the laser cleaning procedure. The results show that laser cleaning is the most effective method among all tested methods in the cleaning of corroded copper threads. It can be used safely in removing the corrosion products without any damage to both metal strips and fibrous core. The tested laser cleaning technique has solved the problems caused by other traditional cleaning techniques that are commonly used in the cleaning of metal threads on museum textiles.

  19. Evaluating the use of laser radiation in cleaning of copper embroidery threads on archaeological Egyptian textiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdel-Kareem, Omar; Harith, M. A.

    2008-07-01

    Cleaning of copper embroidery threads on archaeological textiles is still a complicated conservation process, as most textile conservators believe that the advantages of using traditional cleaning techniques are less than their disadvantages. In this study, the uses of laser cleaning method and two modified recipes of wet cleaning methods were evaluated for cleaning of the corroded archaeological Egyptian copper embroidery threads on an archaeological Egyptian textile fabric. Some corroded copper thread samples were cleaned using modified recipes of wet cleaning method; other corroded copper thread samples were cleaned with Q-switched Nd:YAG laser radiation of wavelength 532 nm. All tested metal thread samples before and after cleaning were investigated using a light microscope and a scanning electron microscope with an energy dispersive X-ray analysis unit. Also the laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique was used for the elemental analysis of laser-cleaned samples to follow up the laser cleaning procedure. The results show that laser cleaning is the most effective method among all tested methods in the cleaning of corroded copper threads. It can be used safely in removing the corrosion products without any damage to both metal strips and fibrous core. The tested laser cleaning technique has solved the problems caused by other traditional cleaning techniques that are commonly used in the cleaning of metal threads on museum textiles.

  20. Review of Bolt Preload and Torque for Assembling Threaded Fasteners in Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yong-Sung; Lee, Jae-Gon; Kang, Yong-Chul; Shin, Ki-Jong

    2007-01-01

    There are numerous threaded fasteners such as bolts, studs, nuts, cap screws and anchor bolts used in nuclear power plants(NPPs). The major applications of threaded fasteners are reactor coolant pressure boundary components, their internals and supports. With the increase of commercial operation period of NPPs, the incidents caused by degradation of threaded fasteners have been occurred. A large number of reported incidents are involved in the pressure boundary and major component supports. The degradation and failure of threaded fasteners is affected by material, preload and torque value at assembly, bolting practice, etc. It is very important to select appropriate bolt preload and decide assembly torque value because torque control using a torque wrench is the most common method in a power plant to assemble a bolted flange connection. Many researches have been studied to define the proper bolt preload and desired torque value with regard to the integrity of bolted connections including pressure boundary joints by EPRI and other plant industry. But in domestic NPPs, considerably few works are done on the bolted joint assembly in spite of increasing events related with threaded faster. Therefore we investigated degradation or failure of the threaded fasteners used in NPPs, also examined the codes, standards and technical trends concerning bolt preload and assembly torque in NPPs. It is the purpose of this study to provide proper technical information for assuring integrity of the threaded fasteners

  1. METHODS OF CONTROLLING THE AVERAGE DIAMETER OF THE THREAD WITH ASYMMETRICAL PROFILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. M. Aliomarov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available To handle the threaded holes in hard materials made of marine machinery, operating at high temperatures, heavy loads and in aggressive environments, the authors have developed the combined tool core drill -tap with a special cutting scheme, which has an asymmetric thread profile on the tap part. In order to control the average diameter of the thread of tap part of the combined tool was used the method three wires, which allows to make continuous measurement of the average diameter of the thread along the entire profile. Deviation from the average diameter from the sample is registered by inductive sensor and is recorded by the recorder. In the work are developed and presented control schemes of the average diameter of the threads with a symmetrical and asymmetrical profile. On the basis of these schemes are derived formulas for calculating the theoretical option to set the wires in the thread profile in the process of measuring the average diameter. Conducted complex research and the introduction of the combined instrument core drill-tap in the production of products of marine engineering, shipbuilding, ship repair power plants made of hard materials showed a high efficiency of the proposed technology for the processing of high-quality small-diameter threaded holes that meet modern requirements.

  2. Dependence of the length of solar filament threads on the magnetic configuration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Yu-Hao; Chen Peng-Fei; Fang Cheng; Zhang Qing-Min

    2014-01-01

    High-resolution Hα observations indicate that filaments consist of an assembly of thin threads. In quiescent filaments, the threads are generally short, whereas in active region filaments, the threads are generally long. In order to explain these observational features, we performed one-dimensional radiative hydrodynamic simulations of filament formation along a dipped magnetic flux tube in the framework of the chromospheric evaporation-coronal condensation model. The geometry of a dipped magnetic flux tube is characterized by three parameters, i.e., the depth (D), the half-width (w) and the altitude (h) of the magnetic dip. A survey of the parameters in numerical simulations shows that when allowing the filament thread to grow in 5 days, the maximum length (L th ) of the filament thread increases linearly with w, and decreases linearly with D and h. The dependence is fitted into a linear function L th = 0.84w − 0.88D − 2.78h+17.31(Mm). Such a relation can qualitatively explain why quiescent filaments have shorter threads and active region filaments have longer threads

  3. Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas D.; Rumi, Rafael; Salmeron, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    Since the 1980s, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability techniques (like fault trees and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (the so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability.

  4. 3D Bayesian contextual classifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Rasmus

    2000-01-01

    We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours.......We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours....

  5. Bayesian methods for proteomic biomarker development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belinda Hernández

    2015-12-01

    In this review we provide an introduction to Bayesian inference and demonstrate some of the advantages of using a Bayesian framework. We summarize how Bayesian methods have been used previously in proteomics and other areas of bioinformatics. Finally, we describe some popular and emerging Bayesian models from the statistical literature and provide a worked tutorial including code snippets to show how these methods may be applied for the evaluation of proteomic biomarkers.

  6. THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF THE INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT OF THE PROCESS OF ASSEMBLY AND THREADING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Skorkin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The subject matter of this article is the issues related to the integrated management of assembling operations of fastening and threading elements at all stages of their implementation. The goal is to develop the generalized structure of the data management system of the process of assembly and threading. The objectives are: to justify the principles of managing the assembly and threading process at each stage of the assembly to improve the efficiency of these operations, to study the power, accuracy and performance characteristics of the connections and to draw the conclusion that suggested the theory of assembly management is efficient. The following results are obtained. The article presents the analytical dependencies of the force indexes of threading in the course of the package and sheet assembly, including the tightening force while joining; the assembly of a multilayered package of dissimilar sheet materials was analyzed. On the basis of the theoretical analysis, the dependences of the power indices of threading during the package and sheet assembly were determined. The assembly of the package of sheet materials was investigated, including a multilayered package of dissimilar materials of a “metal-plastic” type. Conclusions. The process of assembling threaded joints with the use of management principles was used; these principles enable increasing the efficiency of the assembly process, reducing the complexity of the basic operations, and improving the quality of the joints obtained. The use adaptive control of the screwing speed on the main threading transitions is suggested for reducing the torque.  The technology of making threaded joints with given properties is developed, the main ways of increasing the efficiency of assembly and threading processes are determined on the basis of the integrated control system for the assembly process.

  7. Double-Twisted Conductive Smart Threads Comprising a Homogeneously and a Gradient-Coated Thread for Multidimensional Flexible Pressure-Sensing Devices

    KAUST Repository

    Tai, Yanlong

    2016-03-17

    Fiber-based, flexible pressure-sensing systems have attracted attention recently due to their promising application as electronic skins. Here, a new kind of flexible pressure-sensing device based on a polydimethylsiloxane membrane instrumented with double-twisted smart threads (DTSTs) is reported. DTSTs are made of two conductive threads obtained by coating cotton threads with carbon nanotubes. One thread is coated with a homogeneous thickness of single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) to detect the intensity of an applied load and the other is coated with a graded thickness of SWCNTs to identify the position of the load along the thread. The mechanism and capacity of DTSTs to accurately sense an applied load are systematically analyzed. Results demonstrate that the fabricated 1D, 2D, and 3D sensing devices can be used to predict both the intensity and the position of an applied load. The sensors feature high sensitivity (between ≈0.1% and 1.56% kPa) and tunable resolution, good cycling resilience (>104 cycles), and a short response time (minimum 2.5 Hz). The presented strategy is a viable alternative for the design of simple, low-cost pressure sensors.

  8. Bayesian networks and food security - An introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, A.

    2004-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to Bayesian networks. Networks are defined and put into a Bayesian context. Directed acyclical graphs play a crucial role here. Two simple examples from food security are addressed. Possible uses of Bayesian networks for implementation and further use in decision

  9. Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner

    2003-01-01

    been shown to be quite suitable for dynamic domains as well. However, processing object oriented Bayesian networks in practice does not take advantage of their modular structure. Normally the object oriented Bayesian network is transformed into a Bayesian network and, inference is performed...... dynamic domains. The communication needed between instances is achieved by means of a fill-in propagation scheme....

  10. A Bayesian framework for risk perception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Erp, H.R.N.

    2017-01-01

    We present here a Bayesian framework of risk perception. This framework encompasses plausibility judgments, decision making, and question asking. Plausibility judgments are modeled by way of Bayesian probability theory, decision making is modeled by way of a Bayesian decision theory, and relevancy

  11. Study of Measurement Strategies of Geometric Deviation of the Position of the Threaded Holes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drbul, Mário; Martikan, Pavol; Sajgalik, Michal; Czan, Andrej; Broncek, Jozef; Babik, Ondrej

    2017-12-01

    Verification of product and quality control is an integral part of current production process. In terms of functional requirements and product interoperability, it is necessary to analyze their dimensional and also geometric specifications. Threaded holes are verified elements too, which are a substantial part of detachable screw connections and have a broad presence in engineering products. This paper deals with on the analysing of measurement strategies of verification geometric deviation of the position of the threaded holes, which are the indirect method of measuring threaded pins when applying different measurement strategies which can affect the result of the verification of the product..

  12. PERBEDAAN UNSAFE ACTIONS ANTAR SHIFT KERJA PADA BAGIAN THREADING UNIT PRODUKSI I PT X DI SURABAYA

    OpenAIRE

    Insanno, Jenius Setio

    2017-01-01

    PT. X is one of the companies that produces iron pipe in Indonesia. Unit of production I PT. X threading part used work shift system. Few months ago there was an accident happened to a night shift workers threading part, and it caused them to be rushed to the hospital and got medical help. The purpose of this research was to analyze the difference between unsafe action on work shifts threading of PT. X. This research was an observational descriptive study that used crossectional approach. The...

  13. Perbedaan Unsafe Actions Antar Shift Kerja pada Bagian Threading Unit Produksi I PT X di Surabaya

    OpenAIRE

    Insanno, Jenius Setio

    2016-01-01

    PT. X is one of the companies that produces iron pipe in Indonesia. Unit of production I PT. X threading part used work shift system. Few months ago there was an accident happened to a night shift workers threading part, and it caused them to be rushed to the hospital and got medical help. The purpose of this research was to analyze the difference between unsafe action on work shifts threading of PT. X. This research was an observational descriptive study that used crossectional approach. The...

  14. Arsenic contamination in food chain: Thread to food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shekhar Azad Kashyap, Chandra; Singh, Swati

    2017-04-01

    The supply of good quality food is a necessity for economic and social health welfare of urban and rural population. Over the last several decades groundwater contamination in developing countries has assumed dangerous levels as a result millions of people are at risk. This is so particularly with respect to arsenic that has registered high concentration in groundwater in countries like India and Bangladesh. The arsenic content in groundwater varies from 10 to 780 µg/L, which is far above the levels for drinking water standards prescribed by World Health Organization (WHO). Currently arsenic has entered in food chain due to irrigation with arsenic contaminated water. In the present study reports the arsenic contamination in groundwater that is being used for irrigating paddy in Manipur and West Bengal. The arsenic content in irrigation water is 475 µg/L and 780 µg/L in Manipur and West Bengal, respectively. In order to assess the effect of such waters on the rice crop, we collected rice plant from Manipur and determined the arsenic content in roots, stem, and grain. The arsenic content in grain varies from 110 to 190 mg/kg while the limit of arsenic intake by humans is 10 mg/kg (WHO). This problem is not confine to the area, it spread global level, and rice being cultivated in these regions is export to the other countries like USA, Middle East and Europe and will be thread to global food security.

  15. Arsenic contamination in food chain: Thread to global food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashyap, C. A.

    2016-12-01

    The supply of good quality food is a necessity for economic and social health of urban and rural population. Over the last several decades groundwater contamination in developing countries has assumed dangerous levels as a result millions of people are at risk. This is so particularly with respect to arsenic that has registered high concentration in groundwater in countries like India and Bangladesh. The arsenic content in groundwater varies from 10 to 780 µg/L, which is far above the levels for drinking water standards prescribed by World Health Organization (WHO). Currently arsenic has entered in food chain due to irrigation with arsenic contaminated water. In the present study reports the arsenic contamination in groundwater that is being used for irrigating paddy in Manipur and West Bengal. The arsenic content in irrigation water is 475 µg/L and 780 µg/L in Manipur and West Bengal, respectively. In order to assess the effect of such waters on the rice crop, we collected rice plant from Manipur and determined the arsenic content in roots, stem, and grain. The arsenic content in grain varies from 110 to 190 mg/kg while the limit of arsenic intake by humans is 10 mg/kg (WHO). This problem is not confine to the area, it spread global level, and rice being cultivated in these regions is export to the other countries like USA, Middle East and Europe and will be thread to global food security.

  16. Multi-threaded ATLAS simulation on Intel Knights Landing processors

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00014247; The ATLAS collaboration; Calafiura, Paolo; Leggett, Charles; Tsulaia, Vakhtang; Dotti, Andrea

    2017-01-01

    The Knights Landing (KNL) release of the Intel Many Integrated Core (MIC) Xeon Phi line of processors is a potential game changer for HEP computing. With 72 cores and deep vector registers, the KNL cards promise significant performance benefits for highly-parallel, compute-heavy applications. Cori, the newest supercomputer at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), was delivered to its users in two phases with the first phase online at the end of 2015 and the second phase now online at the end of 2016. Cori Phase 2 is based on the KNL architecture and contains over 9000 compute nodes with 96GB DDR4 memory. ATLAS simulation with the multithreaded Athena Framework (AthenaMT) is a good potential use-case for the KNL architecture and supercomputers like Cori. ATLAS simulation jobs have a high ratio of CPU computation to disk I/O and have been shown to scale well in multi-threading and across many nodes. In this paper we will give an overview of the ATLAS simulation application with detai...

  17. Multi-threaded ATLAS Simulation on Intel Knights Landing Processors

    CERN Document Server

    Farrell, Steven; The ATLAS collaboration; Calafiura, Paolo; Leggett, Charles

    2016-01-01

    The Knights Landing (KNL) release of the Intel Many Integrated Core (MIC) Xeon Phi line of processors is a potential game changer for HEP computing. With 72 cores and deep vector registers, the KNL cards promise significant performance benefits for highly-parallel, compute-heavy applications. Cori, the newest supercomputer at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), will be delivered to its users in two phases with the first phase online now and the second phase expected in mid-2016. Cori Phase 2 will be based on the KNL architecture and will contain over 9000 compute nodes with 96GB DDR4 memory. ATLAS simulation with the multithreaded Athena Framework (AthenaMT) is a great use-case for the KNL architecture and supercomputers like Cori. Simulation jobs have a high ratio of CPU computation to disk I/O and have been shown to scale well in multi-threading and across many nodes. In this presentation we will give an overview of the ATLAS simulation application with details on its multi-thr...

  18. Prevailing Torque Locking Feature in Threaded Fasteners Using Anaerobic Adhesive

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Alan; Hess, Daniel P.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents results from tests to assess the use of anaerobic adhesive for providing a prevailing torque locking feature in threaded fasteners. Test procedures are developed and tests are performed on three fastener materials, four anaerobic adhesives, and both unseated assembly conditions. Five to ten samples are tested for each combination. Tests for initial use, reuse without additional adhesive, and reuse with additional adhesive are performed for all samples. A 48-hour cure time was used for all initial use and reuse tests. Test data are presented as removal torque versus removal angle with the specification required prevailing torque range added for performance assessment. Percent specification pass rates for the all combinations of fastener material, adhesive, and assembly condition are tabulated and reveal use of anaerobic adhesive as a prevailing torque locking feature is viable. Although not every possible fastener material and anaerobic adhesive combination provides prevailing torque values within specification, any combination can be assessed using the test procedures presented. Reuse without additional anaerobic adhesive generally provides some prevailing torque, and in some cases within specification. Reuse with additional adhesive often provides comparable removal torque data as in initial use.

  19. Highly Stretchable Non-volatile Nylon Thread Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Ting-Kuo

    2016-04-01

    Integration of electronic elements into textiles, to afford e-textiles, can provide an ideal platform for the development of lightweight, thin, flexible, and stretchable e-textiles. This approach will enable us to meet the demands of the rapidly growing market of wearable-electronics on arbitrary non-conventional substrates. However the actual integration of the e-textiles that undergo mechanical deformations during both assembly and daily wear or satisfy the requirements of the low-end applications, remains a challenge. Resistive memory elements can also be fabricated onto a nylon thread (NT) for e-textile applications. In this study, a simple dip-and-dry process using graphene-PEDOT:PSS (poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) polystyrene sulfonate) ink is proposed for the fabrication of a highly stretchable non-volatile NT memory. The NT memory appears to have typical write-once-read-many-times characteristics. The results show that an ON/OFF ratio of approximately 103 is maintained for a retention time of 106 s. Furthermore, a highly stretchable strain and a long-term digital-storage capability of the ON-OFF-ON states are demonstrated in the NT memory. The actual integration of the knitted NT memories into textiles will enable new design possibilities for low-cost and large-area e-textile memory applications.

  20. Matlab enhanced multi-threaded tomography optimization sequence (MEMTOS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lum, Edward S.; Pope, Chad L.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Monte Carlo simulation of spent nuclear fuel assembly neutron computed tomography. • Optimized parallel calculations conducted from within the MATLAB environment. • Projection difference technique used to identify anomalies in spent nuclear fuel assemblies. - Abstract: One challenge associated with spent nuclear fuel assemblies is the lack of non-destructive analysis techniques to determine if fuel pins have been removed or replaced or if there are significant defects associated with fuel pins deep within a fuel assembly. Neutron computed tomography is a promising technique for addressing these qualitative issues. Monte Carlo simulation of spent nuclear fuel neutron computed tomography allows inexpensive process investigation and optimization. The main purpose of this work is to provide a fully automated advanced simulation framework for the analysis of spent nuclear fuel inspection using neutron computed tomography. The simulation framework, called Matlab Enhanced Multi-Threaded Tomography Optimization Sequence (MEMTOS) not only automates the simulation process, but also generates superior tomography image results. MEMTOS is written in the MATLAB scripting language and addresses file management, parallel Monte Carlo execution, results extraction, and tomography image generation. This paper describes the mathematical basis for neutron computed tomography, the Monte Carlo technique used to simulate neutron computed tomography, and the overall tomography simulation optimization algorithm. Sequence results presented include overall simulation speed enhancement, tomography and image results obtained for Experimental Breeder Reactor II spent fuel assemblies and light water reactor fuel assemblies. Optimization using a projection difference technique are also described.

  1. Mapping monomeric threading to protein-protein structure prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerler, Aysam; Govindarajoo, Brandon; Zhang, Yang

    2013-03-25

    The key step of template-based protein-protein structure prediction is the recognition of complexes from experimental structure libraries that have similar quaternary fold. Maintaining two monomer and dimer structure libraries is however laborious, and inappropriate library construction can degrade template recognition coverage. We propose a novel strategy SPRING to identify complexes by mapping monomeric threading alignments to protein-protein interactions based on the original oligomer entries in the PDB, which does not rely on library construction and increases the efficiency and quality of complex template recognitions. SPRING is tested on 1838 nonhomologous protein complexes which can recognize correct quaternary template structures with a TM score >0.5 in 1115 cases after excluding homologous proteins. The average TM score of the first model is 60% and 17% higher than that by HHsearch and COTH, respectively, while the number of targets with an interface RMSD benchmark proteins. Although the relative performance of SPRING and ZDOCK depends on the level of homology filters, a combination of the two methods can result in a significantly higher model quality than ZDOCK at all homology thresholds. These data demonstrate a new efficient approach to quaternary structure recognition that is ready to use for genome-scale modeling of protein-protein interactions due to the high speed and accuracy.

  2. Heuristics for multiobjective multiple sequence alignment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbasi, Maryam; Paquete, Luís; Pereira, Francisco B

    2016-07-15

    Aligning multiple sequences arises in many tasks in Bioinformatics. However, the alignments produced by the current software packages are highly dependent on the parameters setting, such as the relative importance of opening gaps with respect to the increase of similarity. Choosing only one parameter setting may provide an undesirable bias in further steps of the analysis and give too simplistic interpretations. In this work, we reformulate multiple sequence alignment from a multiobjective point of view. The goal is to generate several sequence alignments that represent a trade-off between maximizing the substitution score and minimizing the number of indels/gaps in the sum-of-pairs score function. This trade-off gives to the practitioner further information about the similarity of the sequences, from which she could analyse and choose the most plausible alignment. We introduce several heuristic approaches, based on local search procedures, that compute a set of sequence alignments, which are representative of the trade-off between the two objectives (substitution score and indels). Several algorithm design options are discussed and analysed, with particular emphasis on the influence of the starting alignment and neighborhood search definitions on the overall performance. A perturbation technique is proposed to improve the local search, which provides a wide range of high-quality alignments. The proposed approach is tested experimentally on a wide range of instances. We performed several experiments with sequences obtained from the benchmark database BAliBASE 3.0. To evaluate the quality of the results, we calculate the hypervolume indicator of the set of score vectors returned by the algorithms. The results obtained allow us to identify reasonably good choices of parameters for our approach. Further, we compared our method in terms of correctly aligned pairs ratio and columns correctly aligned ratio with respect to reference alignments. Experimental results show

  3. Bayesian NL interpretation and learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeevat, H.

    2011-01-01

    Everyday natural language communication is normally successful, even though contemporary computational linguistics has shown that NL is characterised by very high degree of ambiguity and the results of stochastic methods are not good enough to explain the high success rate. Bayesian natural language

  4. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

    configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...

  5. Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Linda

    2006-01-01

    configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for the salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...

  6. Differentiated Bayesian Conjoint Choice Designs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Z. Sándor (Zsolt); M. Wedel (Michel)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractPrevious conjoint choice design construction procedures have produced a single design that is administered to all subjects. This paper proposes to construct a limited set of different designs. The designs are constructed in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account prior uncertainty about

  7. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

    Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...

  8. Bayesian Sampling using Condition Indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael H.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2002-01-01

    of condition indicators introduced by Benjamin and Cornell (1970) a Bayesian approach to quality control is formulated. The formulation is then extended to the case where the quality control is based on sampling of indirect information about the condition of the components, i.e. condition indicators...

  9. Bayesian Classification of Image Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goswami, Dibyendu; Kalkan, Sinan; Krüger, Norbert

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we describe work on Bayesian classi ers for distinguishing between homogeneous structures, textures, edges and junctions. We build semi-local classiers from hand-labeled images to distinguish between these four different kinds of structures based on the concept of intrinsic dimensi...

  10. Bayesian estimates of linkage disequilibrium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abad-Grau María M

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The maximum likelihood estimator of D' – a standard measure of linkage disequilibrium – is biased toward disequilibrium, and the bias is particularly evident in small samples and rare haplotypes. Results This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation of D' to address this problem. The reduction of the bias is achieved by using a prior distribution on the pair-wise associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs that increases the likelihood of equilibrium with increasing physical distances between pairs of SNPs. We show how to compute the Bayesian estimate using a stochastic estimation based on MCMC methods, and also propose a numerical approximation to the Bayesian estimates that can be used to estimate patterns of LD in large datasets of SNPs. Conclusion Our Bayesian estimator of D' corrects the bias toward disequilibrium that affects the maximum likelihood estimator. A consequence of this feature is a more objective view about the extent of linkage disequilibrium in the human genome, and a more realistic number of tagging SNPs to fully exploit the power of genome wide association studies.

  11. 3-D contextual Bayesian classifiers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Rasmus

    In this paper we will consider extensions of a series of Bayesian 2-D contextual classification pocedures proposed by Owen (1984) Hjort & Mohn (1984) and Welch & Salter (1971) and Haslett (1985) to 3 spatial dimensions. It is evident that compared to classical pixelwise classification further...

  12. Bayesian Alternation During Tactile Augmentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caspar Mathias Goeke

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition, rotation only (native condition, and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition. Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants’ responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND. Then we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred2 = 1.67 than the Bayesian integration model (χred2= 4.34. Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all model (χred2= 1.64, which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred2= 1.09 utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in

  13. Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutihac, R.; Cicuttin, A.; Cerdeira, A.; Stanciulescu, C.

    1998-12-01

    Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)

  14. Bayesian analysis of rare events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Straub, Daniel, E-mail: straub@tum.de; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

    2016-06-01

    In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

  15. Why Is There a Glass Ceiling for Threading Based Protein Structure Prediction Methods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skolnick, Jeffrey; Zhou, Hongyi

    2017-04-20

    Despite their different implementations, comparison of the best threading approaches to the prediction of evolutionary distant protein structures reveals that they tend to succeed or fail on the same protein targets. This is true despite the fact that the structural template library has good templates for all cases. Thus, a key question is why are certain protein structures threadable while others are not. Comparison with threading results on a set of artificial sequences selected for stability further argues that the failure of threading is due to the nature of the protein structures themselves. Using a new contact map based alignment algorithm, we demonstrate that certain folds are highly degenerate in that they can have very similar coarse grained fractions of native contacts aligned and yet differ significantly from the native structure. For threadable proteins, this is not the case. Thus, contemporary threading approaches appear to have reached a plateau, and new approaches to structure prediction are required.

  16. 78 FR 76815 - Steel Threaded Rod From India: Preliminary Affirmative Countervailing Duty Determination and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-19

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE International Trade Administration [C-533-856] Steel Threaded Rod From..., International Trade Administration, Department of Commerce. SUMMARY: The Department of Commerce (``the... CONTACT: Brooke Kennedy, AD/CVD Operations, Office III, Enforcement and Compliance, International Trade...

  17. Low threading dislocation density aluminum nitride on silicon carbide through the use of reduced temperature interlayers

    KAUST Repository

    Foronda, Humberto M.; Wu, Feng; Zollner, Christian; Alif, Muhammad Esmed; Saifaddin, Burhan; Almogbel, Abdullah; Iza, Michael; Nakamura, Shuji; DenBaars, Steven P.; Speck, James S.

    2017-01-01

    temperature on the AlN crystal quality, defect density, and surface morphology. The crystal quality was characterized using omega rocking curve scans and the threading dislocation density was determined by plan view transmission electron microscopy. The growth

  18. Parallel Void Thread in Long-Reach Ethernet Passive Optical Networks

    KAUST Repository

    Elrasad, Amr; Shihada, Basem

    2015-01-01

    This work investigates void filling (idle periods) in long-reach Ethernet passive optical networks. We focus on reducing grant delays and hence reducing the average packet delay. We introduce a novel approach called parallel void thread (PVT), which

  19. UTLEON3 Exploring Fine-Grain Multi-Threading in FPGAs

    CERN Document Server

    Daněk, Martin; Kohout, Lukáš; Sýkora, Jaroslav; Bartosinski, Roman

    2013-01-01

    This book describes a specification, microarchitecture, VHDL implementation and evaluation of a SPARC v8 CPU with fine-grain multi-threading, called micro-threading. The CPU, named UTLEON3, is an alternative platform for exploring CPU multi-threading that is compatible with the industry-standard GRLIB package. The processor microarchitecture was designed to map in an efficient way the data-flow scheme on a classical von Neumann pipelined processing used in common processors, while retaining full binary compatibility with existing legacy programs.  Describes and documents a working SPARC v8, with fine-grain multithreading and fast context switch; Provides VHDL sources for the described processor; Describes a latency-tolerant framework for coupling hardware accelerators to microthreaded processor pipelines; Includes programming by example in the micro-threaded assembly language.    

  20. A Mathematical Model for Temperature Induced Loosening due to Radial Expansion of Rectangle Thread Bolted Joints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiyuan Hou

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposed a mathematical model to investigate the radial expansion induced loosening of rectangle thread bolted joints that were subjected to cyclic temperature variation, which could cause slippage between contact pairs of engaged threads and bolt bearing. Firstly, integral equations were derived for the shear stress components caused by expansion difference, as well as the bearing and thread friction torque components, which depended on the temperature variation. Secondly, the relationship of displacement components was developed based on quasi-static hypotheses. Then, treating the rotation of bolt as plastic elongation, the bolt tension's evolution was obtained by using a one-dimensional bolted joint model. Numerical results showed that the temperature variation decreased the bearing and thread friction torque components, which could lead bolted joint to loosen. Finally, the effects of some associated factors on the progress were discussed.

  1. cudaBayesreg: Parallel Implementation of a Bayesian Multilevel Model for fMRI Data Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adelino R. Ferreira da Silva

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Graphic processing units (GPUs are rapidly gaining maturity as powerful general parallel computing devices. A key feature in the development of modern GPUs has been the advancement of the programming model and programming tools. Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA is a software platform for massively parallel high-performance computing on Nvidia many-core GPUs. In functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, the volume of the data to be processed, and the type of statistical analysis to perform call for high-performance computing strategies. In this work, we present the main features of the R-CUDA package cudaBayesreg which implements in CUDA the core of a Bayesian multilevel model for the analysis of brain fMRI data. The statistical model implements a Gibbs sampler for multilevel/hierarchical linear models with a normal prior. The main contribution for the increased performance comes from the use of separate threads for fitting the linear regression model at each voxel in parallel. The R-CUDA implementation of the Bayesian model proposed here has been able to reduce significantly the run-time processing of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulations used in Bayesian fMRI data analyses. Presently, cudaBayesreg is only configured for Linux systems with Nvidia CUDA support.

  2. Thread sign in biliary intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm: a novel specific finding for MRI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Gil-Sun; Byun, Jae Ho; Kim, Jin Hee; Kim, Hyoung Jung; Lee, Seung Soo; Lee, Moon-Gyu; Hong, Seung-Mo

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate thread sign of biliary intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (B-IPMN) on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Thread sign was defined as intraductal linear or curvilinear hypointense striations. Two radiologists independently evaluated the presence and location of thread sign on MR cholangiography (thin-slice, thick-slab and 3D MRC) and axial MR images (T2 TSE, T2 HASTE and DWI) in patients with B-IPMN (n = 38) and in matched control groups with benign (n = 36) or malignant (n = 35) biliary diseases. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of thread sign for diagnosing B-IPMN were evaluated. Thread sign was observed only in patients with B-IPMN on MRC (44.7-52.6 % [17/38-20/38], P < 0.001) and axial MR images (31.6 % [12/38], P < 0.001), except in one patient with recurrent pyogenic cholangitis on MRC (2.8 %, 1/36). The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, PPV and NPV of thread sign for diagnosing B-IPMN on MRC were 0.53, 0.99, 0.83, 0.95 and 0.80, respectively (reader 1) and 0.45, 1.0, 0.81, 1.0 and 0.77, respectively (reader 2). Thread sign was detected mainly at the extrahepatic bile duct (52.6 %, 20/38). B-IPMN can manifest thread sign, a novel specific MR finding, mainly at the extrahepatic bile duct on MRI, especially on MRC. (orig.)

  3. Geant4-MT: bringing multi-threading into Geant4 production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, S.; Apostolakis, J.; Cosmo, G.; Nowak, A.; Asai, M.; Brandt, D.; Dotti, A.; Coopermann, G.; Dong, X.; Jun, Soon Yung

    2013-01-01

    Geant4-MT is the multi-threaded version of the Geant4 particle transport code. The key goals for the design of Geant4-MT have been a) the need to reduce the memory footprint of the multi-threaded application compared to the use of separate jobs and processes; b) to create an easy migration of the existing applications; and c) to use efficiently many threads or cores, by scaling up to tens and potentially hundreds of workers. The first public release of a Geant4- MT prototype was made in 2011. We report on the revision of Geant4-MT for inclusion in the production-level release scheduled for end of 2013. This has involved significant re-engineering of the prototype in order to incorporate it into the main Geant4 development line, and the porting of Geant4-MT threading code to additional platforms. In order to make the porting of applications as simple as possible, refinements addressed the needs of standalone applications. Further adaptations were created to improve the fit with the frameworks of High Energy Physics experiments. We report on performances measurements on Intel Xeon TM , AMD Opteron TM the first trials of Geant4-MT on the Intel Many Integrated Cores (MIC) architecture, in the form of the Xeon Phi TM co-processor. These indicate near-linear scaling through about 200 threads on 60 cores, when holding fixed the number of events per thread. (authors)

  4. A microfluidic glucose sensor incorporating a novel thread-based electrode system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaines, Michelle; Gonzalez-Guerrero, Maria Jose; Uchida, Kathryn; Gomez, Frank A

    2018-05-01

    An electrochemical sensor for the detection of glucose using thread-based electrodes and fabric is described. This device is relatively simple to fabricate and can be used for multiple readings after washing with ethanol. The fabrication of the chip consisted of two steps. First, three thread-based electrodes (reference, working, and counter) were fabricated by painting pieces of nylon thread with either layered silver ink and carbon ink or silver/silver chloride ink. The threads were then woven into a fabric chip with a beeswax barrier molded around the edges in order to prevent leaks from the tested solutions. A thread-based working electrode consisting of one layer of silver underneath two layers of carbon was selected to fabricate the final sensor system. Using the chip, a PBS solution containing glucose oxidase (GOx) (10 mg/mL), potassium ferricyanide (K 3 [Fe(CN) 6 ]) (10 mg/mL) as mediator, and different concentrations of glucose (0-25 mM), was measured by cyclic voltammetry (CV). It was found that the current output from the oxidation of glucose was proportional to the glucose concentrations. This thread-based electrode system is a viable sensor platform for detecting glucose in the physiological range. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  5. HELICAL MOTIONS OF FINE-STRUCTURE PROMINENCE THREADS OBSERVED BY HINODE AND IRIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okamoto, Takenori J. [National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan); Liu, Wei [Bay Area Environmental Research Institute, 625 2nd Street, Suite 209, Petaluma, CA 94952 (United States); Tsuneta, Saku, E-mail: joten.okamoto@nao.ac.jp [ISAS/JAXA, Sagamihara, Kanagawa 252-5210 (Japan)

    2016-11-10

    Fine-structure dynamics in solar prominences holds critical clues to understanding their physical nature of significant space-weather implications. We report evidence of rotational motions of horizontal helical threads in two active-region prominences observed by the Hinode and/or Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph satellites at high resolution. In the first event, we found transverse motions of brightening threads at speeds up to 55 km s{sup -1} seen in the plane of the sky. Such motions appeared as sinusoidal space–time trajectories with a typical period of ∼390 s, which is consistent with plane-of-sky projections of rotational motions. Phase delays at different locations suggest the propagation of twists along the threads at phase speeds of 90–270 km s{sup -1}. At least 15 episodes of such motions occurred in two days, none associated with an eruption. For these episodes, the plane-of-sky speed is linearly correlated with the vertical travel distance, suggestive of a constant angular speed. In the second event, we found Doppler velocities of 30–40 km s{sup -1} in opposite directions in the top and bottom portions of the prominence, comparable to the plane-of-sky speed. The moving threads have about twice broader line widths than stationary threads. These observations, when taken together, provide strong evidence for rotations of helical prominence threads, which were likely driven by unwinding twists triggered by magnetic reconnection between twisted prominence magnetic fields and ambient coronal fields.

  6. VoiceThread as a Peer Review and Dissemination Tool for Undergraduate Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guertin, L. A.

    2012-12-01

    VoiceThread has been utilized in an undergraduate research methods course for peer review and final research project dissemination. VoiceThread (http://www.voicethread.com) can be considered a social media tool, as it is a web-based technology with the capacity to enable interactive dialogue. VoiceThread is an application that allows a user to place a media collection online containing images, audio, videos, documents, and/or presentations in an interface that facilitates asynchronous communication. Participants in a VoiceThread can be passive viewers of the online content or engaged commenters via text, audio, video, with slide annotations via a doodle tool. The VoiceThread, which runs across browsers and operating systems, can be public or private for viewing and commenting and can be embedded into any website. Although few university students are aware of the VoiceThread platform (only 10% of the students surveyed by Ng (2012)), the 2009 K-12 edition of The Horizon Report (Johnson et al., 2009) lists VoiceThread as a tool to watch because of the opportunities it provides as a collaborative learning environment. In Fall 2011, eleven students enrolled in an undergraduate research methods course at Penn State Brandywine each conducted their own small-scale research project. Upon conclusion of the projects, students were required to create a poster summarizing their work for peer review. To facilitate the peer review process outside of class, each student-created PowerPoint file was placed in a VoiceThread with private access to only the class members and instructor. Each student was assigned to peer review five different student posters (i.e., VoiceThread images) with the audio and doodle tools to comment on formatting, clarity of content, etc. After the peer reviews were complete, the students were allowed to edit their PowerPoint poster files for a new VoiceThread. In the new VoiceThread, students were required to video record themselves describing their research

  7. Bayesian probability estimates are not necessary to make choices satisfying Bayes’ rule in elementary situations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domurat, Artur; Kowalczuk, Olga; Idzikowska, Katarzyna; Borzymowska, Zuzanna; Nowak-Przygodzka, Marta

    2015-01-01

    This paper has two aims. First, we investigate how often people make choices conforming to Bayes’ rule when natural sampling is applied. Second, we show that using Bayes’ rule is not necessary to make choices satisfying Bayes’ rule. Simpler methods, even fallacious heuristics, might prescribe correct choices reasonably often under specific circumstances. We considered elementary situations with binary sets of hypotheses and data. We adopted an ecological approach and prepared two-stage computer tasks resembling natural sampling. Probabilistic relations were inferred from a set of pictures, followed by a choice which was made to maximize the chance of a preferred outcome. Use of Bayes’ rule was deduced indirectly from choices. Study 1 used a stratified sample of N = 60 participants equally distributed with regard to gender and type of education (humanities vs. pure sciences). Choices satisfying Bayes’ rule were dominant. To investigate ways of making choices more directly, we replicated Study 1, adding a task with a verbal report. In Study 2 (N = 76) choices conforming to Bayes’ rule dominated again. However, the verbal reports revealed use of a new, non-inverse rule, which always renders correct choices, but is easier than Bayes’ rule to apply. It does not require inversion of conditions [transforming P(H) and P(D|H) into P(H|D)] when computing chances. Study 3 examined the efficiency of three fallacious heuristics (pre-Bayesian, representativeness, and evidence-only) in producing choices concordant with Bayes’ rule. Computer-simulated scenarios revealed that the heuristics produced correct choices reasonably often under specific base rates and likelihood ratios. Summing up we conclude that natural sampling results in most choices conforming to Bayes’ rule. However, people tend to replace Bayes’ rule with simpler methods, and even use of fallacious heuristics may be satisfactorily efficient. PMID:26347676

  8. Bayesian probability estimates are not necessary to make choices satisfying Bayes’ rule in elementary situations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artur eDomurat

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper has two aims. First, we investigate how often people make choices conforming to Bayes’ rule when natural sampling is applied. Second, we show that using Bayes’ rule is not necessary to make choices satisfying Bayes’ rule. Simpler methods, even fallacious heuristics, might prescribe correct choices reasonably often under specific circumstances. We considered elementary situations with binary sets of hypotheses and data. We adopted an ecological approach and prepared two-stage computer tasks resembling natural sampling. Probabilistic relations were to be inferred from a set of pictures, followed by a choice between the data which was made to maximize a chance for a preferred outcome. Using Bayes’ rule was deduced indirectly from choices.Study 1 (N=60 followed a 2 (gender: female vs. male x 2 (education: humanities vs. pure sciences between-subjects factorial design with balanced cells, and a number of correct choices as a dependent variable. Choices satisfying Bayes’ rule were dominant. To investigate ways of making choices more directly, we replicated Study 1, adding a task with a verbal report. In Study 2 (N=76 choices conforming to Bayes’ rule dominated again. However, the verbal reports revealed use of a new, non-inverse rule, which always renders correct choices, but is easier than Bayes’ rule to apply. It does not require inversing conditions (transforming P(H and P(D|H into P(H|D when computing chances. Study 3 examined efficiency of the three fallacious heuristics (pre-Bayesian, representativeness, and evidence-only in producing choices concordant with Bayes’ rule. Computer-simulated scenarios revealed that the heuristics produce correct choices reasonably often under specific base rates and likelihood ratios. Summing up we conclude that natural sampling leads to most choices conforming to Bayes’ rule. However, people tend to replace Bayes’ rule with simpler methods, and even use of fallacious heuristics may

  9. The heuristic-analytic theory of reasoning: extension and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Jonathan St B T

    2006-06-01

    An extensively revised heuristic-analytic theory of reasoning is presented incorporating three principles of hypothetical thinking. The theory assumes that reasoning and judgment are facilitated by the formation of epistemic mental models that are generated one at a time (singularity principle) by preconscious heuristic processes that contextualize problems in such a way as to maximize relevance to current goals (relevance principle). Analytic processes evaluate these models but tend to accept them unless there is good reason to reject them (satisficing principle). At a minimum, analytic processing of models is required so as to generate inferences or judgments relevant to the task instructions, but more active intervention may result in modification or replacement of default models generated by the heuristic system. Evidence for this theory is provided by a review of a wide range of literature on thinking and reasoning.

  10. Heuristics for Hierarchical Partitioning with Application to Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Michael Oliver; Alur, Rajeev

    2001-01-01

    Given a collection of connected components, it is often desired to cluster together parts of strong correspondence, yielding a hierarchical structure. We address the automation of this process and apply heuristics to battle the combinatorial and computational complexity. We define a cost function...... that captures the quality of a structure relative to the connections and favors shallow structures with a low degree of branching. Finding a structure with minimal cost is NP-complete. We present a greedy polynomial-time algorithm that approximates good solutions incrementally by local evaluation of a heuristic...... function. We argue for a heuristic function based on four criteria: the number of enclosed connections, the number of components, the number of touched connections and the depth of the structure. We report on an application in the context of formal verification, where our algorithm serves as a preprocessor...

  11. The impact of choice context on consumers' choice heuristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mueller Loose, Simone; Scholderer, Joachim; Corsi, Armando M.

    2012-01-01

    Context effects in choice settings have received recent attention but little is known about the impact of context on choice consistency and the extent to which consumers apply choice heuristics. The sequence of alternatives in a choice set is examined here as one specific context effect. We compare...... how a change from a typical price order to a sensory order in wine menus affects consumer choice. We use pre-specified latent heuristic classes to analyse the existence of different choice processes, which begins to untangle the ‘black box’ of how consumers choose. Our findings indicate...... that in the absence of price order, consumers are less price-sensitive, pay more attention to visually salient cues, are less consistent in their choices and employ other simple choice heuristics more frequently than price. Implications for consumer research, marketing and consumer policy are discussed....

  12. Generalized perturbation theory (GPT) methods. A heuristic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    1987-01-01

    Wigner first proposed a perturbation theory as early as 1945 to study fundamental quantities such as the reactivity worths of different materials. The first formulation, CPT, for conventional perturbation theory is based on universal quantum mechanics concepts. Since that early conception, significant contributions have been made to CPT, in particular, Soodak, who rendered a heuristic interpretation of the adjoint function, (referred to as the GPT method for generalized perturbation theory). The author illustrates the GPT methodology in a variety of linear and nonlinear domains encountered in nuclear reactor analysis. The author begins with the familiar linear neutron field and then generalizes the methodology to other linear and nonlinear fields, using heuristic arguments. The author believes that the inherent simplicity and elegance of the heuristic derivation, although intended here for reactor physics problems might be usefully adopted in collateral fields and includes such examples

  13. A greedy double swap heuristic for nurse scheduling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murphy Choy

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the key challenges of nurse scheduling problem (NSP is the number of constraints placed on preparing the timetable, both from the regulatory requirements as well as the patients’ demand for the appropriate nursing care specialists. In addition, the preferences of the nursing staffs related to their work schedules add another dimension of complexity. Most solutions proposed for solving nurse scheduling involve the use of mathematical programming and generally considers only the hard constraints. However, the psychological needs of the nurses are ignored and this resulted in subsequent interventions by the nursing staffs to remedy any deficiency and often results in last minute changes to the schedule. In this paper, we present a staff preference optimization framework solved with a greedy double swap heuristic. The heuristic yields good performance in speed at solving the problem. The heuristic is simple and we will demonstrate its performance by implementing it on open source spreadsheet software.

  14. A Comparison of Genetic Programming Variants for Hyper-Heuristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, Sean [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Modern society is faced with ever more complex problems, many of which can be formulated as generate-and-test optimization problems. General-purpose optimization algorithms are not well suited for real-world scenarios where many instances of the same problem class need to be repeatedly and efficiently solved, such as routing vehicles over highways with constantly changing traffic flows, because they are not targeted to a particular scenario. Hyper-heuristics automate the design of algorithms to create a custom algorithm for a particular scenario. Hyper-heuristics typically employ Genetic Programming (GP) and this project has investigated the relationship between the choice of GP and performance in Hyper-heuristics. Results are presented demonstrating the existence of problems for which there is a statistically significant performance differential between the use of different types of GP.

  15. Derivation of some formulae in combinatrics by heuristic methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Yukio

    2015-04-01

    Heuristic methods are more effective for students inlearning permutations and combinations in mathematics than passive learning such as rote memorization of formulae. Two examples, n! and 2n - 1Cn, of finding new combinatorial formulae are discussed from a pedagogical standpoint. First, the factorial of n can be expressed as ∑n - 1k = 0k . k!, which can be found by a heuristic method. This expression is comparable to representations of powers of r using geometrical series. Second, the number of possible combinations with repetition of n drawings from n elements is denoted 2n - 1Cn, which can be calculated from ∑n - 1k = 0nCk + 1n - 1Ck. The relation ∑n - 1k = 0nCk + 1n - 1Ck = 2n - 1Cn can be found by a heuristic method through a corresponding problem on mapping.

  16. Heuristic versus statistical physics approach to optimization problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jedrzejek, C.; Cieplinski, L.

    1995-01-01

    Optimization is a crucial ingredient of many calculation schemes in science and engineering. In this paper we assess several classes of methods: heuristic algorithms, methods directly relying on statistical physics such as the mean-field method and simulated annealing; and Hopfield-type neural networks and genetic algorithms partly related to statistical physics. We perform the analysis for three types of problems: (1) the Travelling Salesman Problem, (2) vector quantization, and (3) traffic control problem in multistage interconnection network. In general, heuristic algorithms perform better (except for genetic algorithms) and much faster but have to be specific for every problem. The key to improving the performance could be to include heuristic features into general purpose statistical physics methods. (author)

  17. Inhibitory mechanism of the matching heuristic in syllogistic reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tse, Ping Ping; Moreno Ríos, Sergio; García-Madruga, Juan Antonio; Bajo Molina, María Teresa

    2014-11-01

    A number of heuristic-based hypotheses have been proposed to explain how people solve syllogisms with automatic processes. In particular, the matching heuristic employs the congruency of the quantifiers in a syllogism—by matching the quantifier of the conclusion with those of the two premises. When the heuristic leads to an invalid conclusion, successful solving of these conflict problems requires the inhibition of automatic heuristic processing. Accordingly, if the automatic processing were based on processing the set of quantifiers, no semantic contents would be inhibited. The mental model theory, however, suggests that people reason using mental models, which always involves semantic processing. Therefore, whatever inhibition occurs in the processing implies the inhibition of the semantic contents. We manipulated the validity of the syllogism and the congruency of the quantifier of its conclusion with those of the two premises according to the matching heuristic. A subsequent lexical decision task (LDT) with related words in the conclusion was used to test any inhibition of the semantic contents after each syllogistic evaluation trial. In the LDT, the facilitation effect of semantic priming diminished after correctly solved conflict syllogisms (match-invalid or mismatch-valid), but was intact after no-conflict syllogisms. The results suggest the involvement of an inhibitory mechanism of semantic contents in syllogistic reasoning when there is a conflict between the output of the syntactic heuristic and actual validity. Our results do not support a uniquely syntactic process of syllogistic reasoning but fit with the predictions based on mental model theory. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Identification of the Process of Dynamic Stretching of Threads in Warp Knitting Technology Part II: Experimental Identification of the Process of Stretching Threads, with Verification of Rheological Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prążyńska Aleksandra

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The study is a continuation of the first part of the publication, concerning the theoretical analysis of sensitivity of rheological models of dynamically stretched thread. This part presents the experimental research on the characteristics of stretching forces as a function of time, in the context of comparing the obtained results with theoretical data.

  19. Reasoning by analogy as an aid to heuristic theorem proving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kling, R. E.

    1972-01-01

    When heuristic problem-solving programs are faced with large data bases that contain numbers of facts far in excess of those needed to solve any particular problem, their performance rapidly deteriorates. In this paper, the correspondence between a new unsolved problem and a previously solved analogous problem is computed and invoked to tailor large data bases to manageable sizes. This paper outlines the design of an algorithm for generating and exploiting analogies between theorems posed to a resolution-logic system. These algorithms are believed to be the first computationally feasible development of reasoning by analogy to be applied to heuristic theorem proving.

  20. Petri nets SM-cover-based on heuristic coloring algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tkacz, Jacek; Doligalski, Michał

    2015-09-01

    In the paper, coloring heuristic algorithm of interpreted Petri nets is presented. Coloring is used to determine the State Machines (SM) subnets. The present algorithm reduces the Petri net in order to reduce the computational complexity and finds one of its possible State Machines cover. The proposed algorithm uses elements of interpretation of Petri nets. The obtained result may not be the best, but it is sufficient for use in rapid prototyping of logic controllers. Found SM-cover will be also used in the development of algorithms for decomposition, and modular synthesis and implementation of parallel logic controllers. Correctness developed heuristic algorithm was verified using Gentzen formal reasoning system.

  1. Using heuristics to solve the dedicated aircraft recovery problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Løve, Michael; Sørensen, Kim Riis; Larsen, Jesper

    2001-01-01

    schedules through a series of reassignments of aircraft to flights, delaying of flights and cancellations of flights. This article describes an effective method to solve DARP. A heuristic is implemented, which is able to generate feasible revised flight schedules of good quality in less than 10 seconds when...... applied to real flight schedules with disruptions from British Airways. The heuristic is able to consider delays, cancellations and reassignments simultaneously and balance the trade-off between these options. It is also demonstrated that different strategies can be applied to prioritize these options...

  2. Hyper-heuristic applied to nuclear reactor core design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domingos, R P; Platt, G M

    2013-01-01

    The design of nuclear reactors gives rises to a series of optimization problems because of the need for high efficiency, availability and maintenance of security levels. Gradient-based techniques and linear programming have been applied, as well as genetic algorithms and particle swarm optimization. The nonlinearity, multimodality and lack of knowledge about the problem domain makes de choice of suitable meta-heuristic models particularly challenging. In this work we solve the optimization problem of a nuclear reactor core design through the application of an optimal sequence of meta-heuritics created automatically. This combinatorial optimization model is known as hyper-heuristic.

  3. Heuristic methods for shared backup path protection planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haahr, Jørgen Thorlund; Stidsen, Thomas Riis; Zachariasen, Martin

    2012-01-01

    schemes are employed. In contrast to manual intervention, automatic protection schemes such as Shared Backup Path Protection (SBPP) can recover from failure quickly and efficiently. SBPP is a simple but efficient protection scheme that can be implemented in backbone networks with technology available...... present heuristic algorithms and lower bound methods for the SBPP planning problem. Experimental results show that the heuristic algorithms are able to find good quality solutions in minutes. A solution gap of less than 3.5% was achieved for more than half of the benchmark instances (and a gap of less...

  4. Heuristic methods for single link shared backup path protection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haahr, Jørgen Thorlund; Stidsen, Thomas Riis; Zachariasen, Martin

    2014-01-01

    schemes are employed. In contrast to manual intervention, automatic protection schemes such as shared backup path protection (SBPP) can recover from failure quickly and efficiently. SBPP is a simple but efficient protection scheme that can be implemented in backbone networks with technology available...... heuristic algorithms and lower bound methods for the SBPP planning problem. Experimental results show that the heuristic algorithms are able to find good quality solutions in minutes. A solution gap of less than 3.5 % was achieved for 5 of 7 benchmark instances (and a gap of less than 11 % for the remaining...

  5. Job shop scheduling with makespan objective: A heuristic approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Ziaee

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Job shop has been considered as one of the most challenging scheduling problems and there are literally tremendous efforts on reducing the complexity of solution procedure for solving job shop problem. This paper presents a heuristic method to minimize makespan for different jobs in a job shop scheduling. The proposed model is based on a constructive procedure to obtain good quality schedules, very quickly. The performance of the proposed model of this paper is examined on standard benchmarks from the literature in order to evaluate its performance. Computational results show that, despite its simplicity, the proposed heuristic is computationally efficient and practical approach for the problem.

  6. Bayesian estimation methods in metrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, M.G.; Forbes, A.B.; Harris, P.M.

    2004-01-01

    In metrology -- the science of measurement -- a measurement result must be accompanied by a statement of its associated uncertainty. The degree of validity of a measurement result is determined by the validity of the uncertainty statement. In recognition of the importance of uncertainty evaluation, the International Standardization Organization in 1995 published the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement and the Guide has been widely adopted. The validity of uncertainty statements is tested in interlaboratory comparisons in which an artefact is measured by a number of laboratories and their measurement results compared. Since the introduction of the Mutual Recognition Arrangement, key comparisons are being undertaken to determine the degree of equivalence of laboratories for particular measurement tasks. In this paper, we discuss the possible development of the Guide to reflect Bayesian approaches and the evaluation of key comparison data using Bayesian estimation methods

  7. Deep Learning and Bayesian Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prosper Harrison B.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A revolution is underway in which deep neural networks are routinely used to solve diffcult problems such as face recognition and natural language understanding. Particle physicists have taken notice and have started to deploy these methods, achieving results that suggest a potentially significant shift in how data might be analyzed in the not too distant future. We discuss a few recent developments in the application of deep neural networks and then indulge in speculation about how such methods might be used to automate certain aspects of data analysis in particle physics. Next, the connection to Bayesian methods is discussed and the paper ends with thoughts on a significant practical issue, namely, how, from a Bayesian perspective, one might optimize the construction of deep neural networks.

  8. Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello

    Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.

  9. BAYESIAN IMAGE RESTORATION, USING CONFIGURATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed in detail for 3 X 3 and 5 X 5 configurations and examples of the performance of the procedure are given.

  10. Threaded biliary inside stents are a safe and effective therapeutic option in cases of malignant hilar obstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inatomi, Osamu; Bamba, Shigeki; Shioya, Makoto; Mochizuki, Yosuke; Ban, Hiromitsu; Tsujikawa, Tomoyuki; Saito, Yasuharu; Andoh, Akira; Fujiyama, Yoshihide

    2013-02-14

    Although endoscopic biliary stents have been accepted as part of palliative therapy for cases of malignant hilar obstruction, the optimal endoscopic management regime remains controversial. In this study, we evaluated the safety and efficacy of placing a threaded stent above the sphincter of Oddi (threaded inside plastic stents, threaded PS) and compared the results with those of other stent types. Patients with malignant hilar obstruction, including those requiring biliary drainage for stent occlusion, were selected. Patients received either one of the following endoscopic indwelling stents: threaded PS, conventional plastic stents (conventional PS), or metallic stents (MS). Duration of stent patency and the incident of complication were compared in these patients. Forty-two patients underwent placement of endoscopic indwelling stents (threaded PS = 12, conventional PS = 17, MS = 13). The median duration of threaded PS patency was significantly longer than that of conventional PS patency (142 vs. 32 days; P = 0.04, logrank test). The median duration of threaded PS and MS patency was not significantly different (142 vs. 150 days, P = 0.83). Stent migration did not occur in any group. Among patients who underwent threaded PS placement as a salvage therapy after MS obstruction due to tumor ingrowth, the median duration of MS patency was significantly shorter than that of threaded PS patency (123 vs. 240 days). Threaded PS are safe and effective in cases of malignant hilar obstruction; moreover, it is a suitable therapeutic option not only for initial drainage but also for salvage therapy.

  11. Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

    2001-01-01

    With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores

  12. Multiview Bayesian Correlated Component Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamronn, Simon Due; Poulsen, Andreas Trier; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2015-01-01

    are identical. Here we propose a hierarchical probabilistic model that can infer the level of universality in such multiview data, from completely unrelated representations, corresponding to canonical correlation analysis, to identical representations as in correlated component analysis. This new model, which...... we denote Bayesian correlated component analysis, evaluates favorably against three relevant algorithms in simulated data. A well-established benchmark EEG data set is used to further validate the new model and infer the variability of spatial representations across multiple subjects....

  13. A Bayesian Network Based Adaptability Design of Product Structures for Function Evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaobo Li

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Structure adaptability design is critical for function evolution in product families, in which many structural and functional design factors are intertwined together with manufacturing cost, customer satisfaction, and final market sales. How to achieve a delicate balance among all of these factors to maximize the market performance of the product is too complicated to address based on traditional domain experts’ knowledge or some ad hoc heuristics. Here, we propose a quantitative product evolution design model that is based on Bayesian networks to model the dynamic relationship between customer needs and product structure design. In our model, all of the structural or functional features along with customer satisfaction, manufacturing cost, sale price, market sales, and indirect factors are modeled as random variables denoted as nodes in the Bayesian networks. The structure of the Bayesian model is then determined based on the historical data, which captures the dynamic sophisticated relationship of customer demands of a product, structural design, and market performance. Application of our approach to an electric toothbrush product family evolution design problem shows that our model allows for designers to interrogate with the model and obtain theoretical and decision support for dynamic product feature design process.

  14. Heuristic approach to Satellite Range Scheduling with Bounds using Lagrangian Relaxation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Nathanael J. K.; Arguello, Bryan; Nozick, Linda Karen; Xu, Ningxiong [Cornell

    2017-03-01

    This paper focuses on scheduling antennas to track satellites using a heuristic method. In order to validate the performance of the heuristic, bounds are developed using Lagrangian relaxation. The performance of the algorithm is established using several illustrative problems.

  15. Collaborative learning using VoiceThread in an online graduate course

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Hui Ching

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Collaborative learning enables participants in a learning community to externalize and share knowledge, experiences, and practice. However, collaborative learning in an online environment can be challenging due to the lack of face-to face interaction. This current study examined twenty graduate students’ experiences of using VoiceThread for a collaborative activity in an entirely online course to explore students’ perceptions of using multi-modal communication for collaboration and knowledge sharing. The results of this study revealed that graduate students had very positive experiences toward using VoiceThread for collaborative learning. The participants found VoiceThread easy to learn and use, and reported that audio and video interaction on VoiceThread helped connect them with their peers. More than half of the participants interacted with peers using audio, followed by text and then by video. Half of the students felt they were more connected to peers; however, feeling more connected did not result in more participation as most of the students only participated at the level that met the course requirement. Participants identified benefits and drawbacks of using VoiceThread for collaboration as compared to using text-based discussion forums. The most frequently mentioned benefit of using VoiceThread for collaboration exemplifies its multi-modal affordance that enables learners to communicate emotion, personality, and other non-verbal cues conducive to better understanding and interpretation of meanings. About half of the participants indicated that they preferred VoiceThread to text-based discussion forums for collaborative learning activity. Challenges and implications for future research are also discussed.

  16. An efficient heuristic versus a robust hybrid meta-heuristic for general framework of serial-parallel redundancy problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadjadi, Seyed Jafar; Soltani, R.

    2009-01-01

    We present a heuristic approach to solve a general framework of serial-parallel redundancy problem where the reliability of the system is maximized subject to some general linear constraints. The complexity of the redundancy problem is generally considered to be NP-Hard and the optimal solution is not normally available. Therefore, to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, a hybrid genetic algorithm is also implemented whose parameters are calibrated via Taguchi's robust design method. Then, various test problems are solved and the computational results indicate that the proposed heuristic approach could provide us some promising reliabilities, which are fairly close to optimal solutions in a reasonable amount of time.

  17. 12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo

    2015-01-01

    Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...

  18. An analysis of generalised heuristics for vehicle routing and personnel rostering problems

    OpenAIRE

    Mustafa Misir; Pieter Smet; Greet Vanden Berghe

    2015-01-01

    The present study investigates the performance of heuristics while solving problems with routing and rostering characteristics. The target problems include scheduling and routing home care, security and maintenance personnel. In analysing the behaviour of the heuristics and determining the requirements for solving the aforementioned problems, the winning hyper-heuristic from the first International Cross-domain Heuristic Search Challenge (CHeSC 2011) is employed. The completely new applicatio...

  19. CEO emotional bias and investment decision, Bayesian network method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarboui Anis

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the determinants of firms’ investment introducing a behavioral perspective that has received little attention in corporate finance literature. The following central hypothesis emerges from a set of recently developed theories: Investment decisions are influenced not only by their fundamentals but also depend on some other factors. One factor is the biasness of any CEO to their investment, biasness depends on the cognition and emotions, because some leaders use them as heuristic for the investment decision instead of fundamentals. This paper shows how CEO emotional bias (optimism, loss aversion and overconfidence affects the investment decisions. The proposed model of this paper uses Bayesian Network Method to examine this relationship. Emotional bias has been measured by means of a questionnaire comprising several items. As for the selected sample, it has been composed of some 100 Tunisian executives. Our results have revealed that the behavioral analysis of investment decision implies leader affected by behavioral biases (optimism, loss aversion, and overconfidence adjusts its investment choices based on their ability to assess alternatives (optimism and overconfidence and risk perception (loss aversion to create of shareholder value and ensure its place at the head of the management team.

  20. A Bayesian model for binary Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belkheir Essebbar

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available This note is concerned with Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities of a binary Markov chain observed from heterogeneous individuals. The model is founded on the Jeffreys' prior which allows for transition probabilities to be correlated. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC techniques. The performance of the Bayesian estimates is illustrated by analyzing a small simulated data set.

  1. A genetic algorithm selection perturbative hyper-heuristic for solving ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Table 1: A summary of the characteristics of the artificial school timetabling problems. ..... One of the disadvantages of hyper-heuristics is the higher runtimes as a result .... 455–464 in AI 2002: Advances in Artificial Intelligence, Springer Berlin ...

  2. Glottochronology as a heuristic for genealogical language relationships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wichmann, S.; Holman, E.W.; Müller, A.; Velupillai, V.; List, J.-M.; Belyaev, O.; Urban, M.; Bakker, D.

    2010-01-01

    This paper applies a computerized method related to that of glottochronology and addresses the question whether such a method is useful as a heuristic for identifying deep genealogical relations among languages. We first measure lexical similarities for pairs of language families that are normally

  3. A lifelong learning hyper-heuristic method for bin packing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sim, Kevin; Hart, Emma; Paechter, Ben

    2015-01-01

    We describe a novel hyper-heuristic system that continuously learns over time to solve a combinatorial optimisation problem. The system continuously generates new heuristics and samples problems from its environment; and representative problems and heuristics are incorporated into a self-sustaining network of interacting entities inspired by methods in artificial immune systems. The network is plastic in both its structure and content, leading to the following properties: it exploits existing knowledge captured in the network to rapidly produce solutions; it can adapt to new problems with widely differing characteristics; and it is capable of generalising over the problem space. The system is tested on a large corpus of 3,968 new instances of 1D bin-packing problems as well as on 1,370 existing problems from the literature; it shows excellent performance in terms of the quality of solutions obtained across the datasets and in adapting to dynamically changing sets of problem instances compared to previous approaches. As the network self-adapts to sustain a minimal repertoire of both problems and heuristics that form a representative map of the problem space, the system is further shown to be computationally efficient and therefore scalable.

  4. Development of Heuristic Bias Detection in Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Neys, Wim; Feremans, Vicky

    2013-01-01

    Although human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics, recent studies have shown that adults and adolescents detect the biased nature of their judgments. The present study focused on the development of this critical bias sensitivity by examining the detection skills of young children in elementary school. Third and 6th graders were…

  5. Emotions and Heuristics: The State of Perplexity in Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Chacón, Inés M.

    2017-01-01

    Using data provided by an empirical exploratory study with mathematics undergraduates, this paper discusses some key variables in the interaction between affective and cognitive dimensions in the perplexity state in problem solving. These variables are as follows: heuristics, mathematical processes, appraisal processes [pleasantness, attentional…

  6. Heuristic Evaluation on Mobile Interfaces: A New Checklist

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yáñez Gómez, Rosa; Cascado Caballero, Daniel; Sevillano, José-Luis

    2014-01-01

    The rapid evolution and adoption of mobile devices raise new usability challenges, given their limitations (in screen size, battery life, etc.) as well as the specific requirements of this new interaction. Traditional evaluation techniques need to be adapted in order for these requirements to be met. Heuristic evaluation (HE), an Inspection Method based on evaluation conducted by experts over a real system or prototype, is based on checklists which are desktop-centred and do not adequately detect mobile-specific usability issues. In this paper, we propose a compilation of heuristic evaluation checklists taken from the existing bibliography but readapted to new mobile interfaces. Selecting and rearranging these heuristic guidelines offer a tool which works well not just for evaluation but also as a best-practices checklist. The result is a comprehensive checklist which is experimentally evaluated as a design tool. This experimental evaluation involved two software engineers without any specific knowledge about usability, a group of ten users who compared the usability of a first prototype designed without our heuristics, and a second one after applying the proposed checklist. The results of this experiment show the usefulness of the proposed checklist for avoiding usability gaps even with nontrained developers. PMID:25295300

  7. Evaluating Heuristics for Planning Effective and Efficient Inspections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shull, Forrest J.; Seaman, Carolyn B.; Diep, Madeline M.; Feldmann, Raimund L.; Godfrey, Sara H.; Regardie, Myrna

    2010-01-01

    A significant body of knowledge concerning software inspection practice indicates that the value of inspections varies widely both within and across organizations. Inspection effectiveness and efficiency can be measured in numerous ways, and may be affected by a variety of factors such as Inspection planning, the type of software, the developing organization, and many others. In the early 1990's, NASA formulated heuristics for inspection planning based on best practices and early NASA inspection data. Over the intervening years, the body of data from NASA inspections has grown. This paper describes a multi-faceted exploratory analysis performed on this · data to elicit lessons learned in general about conducting inspections and to recommend improvements to the existing heuristics. The contributions of our results include support for modifying some of the original inspection heuristics (e.g. Increasing the recommended page rate), evidence that Inspection planners must choose between efficiency and effectiveness, as a good tradeoff between them may not exist, and Identification of small subsets of inspections for which new inspection heuristics are needed. Most Importantly, this work illustrates the value of collecting rich data on software Inspections, and using it to gain insight into, and Improve, inspection practice.

  8. Heuristic Reasoning in Chemistry: Making Decisions about Acid Strength

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClary, Lakeisha; Talanquer, Vicente

    2011-01-01

    The characterization of students' reasoning strategies is of central importance in the development of instructional strategies that foster meaningful learning. In particular, the identification of shortcut reasoning procedures (heuristics) used by students to reduce cognitive load can help us devise strategies to facilitate the development of more…

  9. Heuristics Applied in the Development of Advanced Space Mission Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsen, Erik N.

    1998-01-01

    Advanced mission studies are the first step in determining the feasibility of a given space exploration concept. A space scientist develops a science goal in the exploration of space. This may be a new observation method, a new instrument or a mission concept to explore a solar system body. In order to determine the feasibility of a deep space mission, a concept study is convened to determine the technology needs and estimated cost of performing that mission. Heuristics are one method of defining viable mission and systems architectures that can be assessed for technology readiness and cost. Developing a viable architecture depends to a large extent upon extending the existing body of knowledge, and applying it in new and novel ways. These heuristics have evolved over time to include methods for estimating technical complexity, technology development, cost modeling and mission risk in the unique context of deep space missions. This paper examines the processes involved in performing these advanced concepts studies, and analyzes the application of heuristics in the development of an advanced in-situ planetary mission. The Venus Surface Sample Return mission study provides a context for the examination of the heuristics applied in the development of the mission and systems architecture. This study is illustrative of the effort involved in the initial assessment of an advance mission concept, and the knowledge and tools that are applied.

  10. Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bailey, A.; Hutter, I.

    2006-01-01

    Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from

  11. Applied Decision Making With Fast-and-Frugal Heuristics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hafenbrädl, S.; Waeger, D.; Marewski, J.N.; Gigerenzer, G.

    In applied settings, such as aviation, medicine, and finance, individuals make decisions under various degrees of uncertainty, that is, when not all risks are known or can be calculated. In such situations, decisions can be made using fast-and-frugal heuristics. These are simple strategies that

  12. Concentrated Hitting Times of Randomized Search Heuristics with Variable Drift

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehre, Per Kristian; Witt, Carsten

    2014-01-01

    Drift analysis is one of the state-of-the-art techniques for the runtime analysis of randomized search heuristics (RSHs) such as evolutionary algorithms (EAs), simulated annealing etc. The vast majority of existing drift theorems yield bounds on the expected value of the hitting time for a target...

  13. Heuristics for Relevancy Ranking of Earth Dataset Search Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynnes, Christopher; Quinn, Patrick; Norton, James

    2016-01-01

    As the Variety of Earth science datasets increases, science researchers find it more challenging to discover and select the datasets that best fit their needs. The most common way of search providers to address this problem is to rank the datasets returned for a query by their likely relevance to the user. Large web page search engines typically use text matching supplemented with reverse link counts, semantic annotations and user intent modeling. However, this produces uneven results when applied to dataset metadata records simply externalized as a web page. Fortunately, data and search provides have decades of experience in serving data user communities, allowing them to form heuristics that leverage the structure in the metadata together with knowledge about the user community. Some of these heuristics include specific ways of matching the user input to the essential measurements in the dataset and determining overlaps of time range and spatial areas. Heuristics based on the novelty of the datasets can prioritize later, better versions of data over similar predecessors. And knowledge of how different user types and communities use data can be brought to bear in cases where characteristics of the user (discipline, expertise) or their intent (applications, research) can be divined. The Earth Observing System Data and Information System has begun implementing some of these heuristics in the relevancy algorithm of its Common Metadata Repository search engine.

  14. Heuristics and NCLB Standardized Tests: A Convenient Lie

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodge, Arnold

    2009-01-01

    The No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 requires public schools in the United States to test students in grades 3-8. The author argues that this mandate has been supported by the public, in part, because of the "availability heuristic," a phenomenon which occurs when people assess the probability of an event by the ease with which instances…

  15. Sensitivity analysis of a greedy heuristic for knapsack problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghosh, D; Chakravarti, N; Sierksma, G

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we carry out parametric analysis as well as a tolerance limit based sensitivity analysis of a greedy heuristic for two knapsack problems-the 0-1 knapsack problem and the subset sum problem. We carry out the parametric analysis based on all problem parameters. In the tolerance limit

  16. Heuristic Evaluation on Mobile Interfaces: A New Checklist

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Yáñez Gómez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The rapid evolution and adoption of mobile devices raise new usability challenges, given their limitations (in screen size, battery life, etc. as well as the specific requirements of this new interaction. Traditional evaluation techniques need to be adapted in order for these requirements to be met. Heuristic evaluation (HE, an Inspection Method based on evaluation conducted by experts over a real system or prototype, is based on checklists which are desktop-centred and do not adequately detect mobile-specific usability issues. In this paper, we propose a compilation of heuristic evaluation checklists taken from the existing bibliography but readapted to new mobile interfaces. Selecting and rearranging these heuristic guidelines offer a tool which works well not just for evaluation but also as a best-practices checklist. The result is a comprehensive checklist which is experimentally evaluated as a design tool. This experimental evaluation involved two software engineers without any specific knowledge about usability, a group of ten users who compared the usability of a first prototype designed without our heuristics, and a second one after applying the proposed checklist. The results of this experiment show the usefulness of the proposed checklist for avoiding usability gaps even with nontrained developers.

  17. A rescheduling heuristic for the single machine total tardiness problem

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we propose a rescheduling heuristic for scheduling N jobs on a .... the schedules which start both jobs i and j after time T, there is an optimal ..... [14] Picard J & Queyranne M, 1978, The time-dependent traveling salesman problem.

  18. Heuristics guide cooperative behaviors in public goods game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yongjie; Chen, Tong

    2015-12-01

    In public goods game (PGG), player's cooperative behavior is not pure economical rationality, but social preference and prosocial intuition play extremely important roles as well. Social preference and prosocial intuition can be guided by heuristics from one's neighbors in daily life. To better investigate the impacts of heuristics on the evolution of cooperation, four types of agents are introduced into our spatial PGG. Through numerical simulations, results show that the larger percentages of cooperators with independent thought, the easier emergence and maintenance of collective cooperative behaviors. Additionally, we find that differentia heuristic capability has great effect on the equilibrium of PGG. Cooperation can be obviously promoted, when heuristic capability of cooperators with independent thought is stronger than that of defectors with independent thought. Finally, we observe that cooperators with independent thought and defectors with independent thought are favorable for the formation of some high quality clusters, which can resist the invasion between each other. Our work may help us understand more clearly the mechanism of cooperation in real world.

  19. Insights in cognitive patterns : Essays on heuristics and identification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rothengatter, Marloes

    2016-01-01

    People are inclined to find patterns in everything they sense, even if there is no pattern to discover. Humans use action-oriented mental patterns as rules of thumb, so called heuristics, in speedy decision-making. At the same time, we see this desire for pattern finding in social orderliness, in

  20. Divergence of Scientific Heuristic Method and Direct Algebraic Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calucag, Lina S.

    2016-01-01

    This is an experimental study, made used of the non-randomized experimental and control groups, pretest-posttest designs. The experimental and control groups were two separate intact classes in Algebra. For a period of twelve sessions, the experimental group was subjected to the scientific heuristic method, but the control group instead was given…