WorldWideScience

Sample records for bayesian coalescent analysis

  1. Bayesian Agglomerative Clustering with Coalescents

    OpenAIRE

    Teh, Yee Whye; Daumé III, Hal; Roy, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    We introduce a new Bayesian model for hierarchical clustering based on a prior over trees called Kingman's coalescent. We develop novel greedy and sequential Monte Carlo inferences which operate in a bottom-up agglomerative fashion. We show experimentally the superiority of our algorithms over others, and demonstrate our approach in document clustering and phylolinguistics.

  2. Bayesian Inference of Reticulate Phylogenies under the Multispecies Network Coalescent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Dingqiao; Yu, Yun; Nakhleh, Luay

    2016-05-01

    The multispecies coalescent (MSC) is a statistical framework that models how gene genealogies grow within the branches of a species tree. The field of computational phylogenetics has witnessed an explosion in the development of methods for species tree inference under MSC, owing mainly to the accumulating evidence of incomplete lineage sorting in phylogenomic analyses. However, the evolutionary history of a set of genomes, or species, could be reticulate due to the occurrence of evolutionary processes such as hybridization or horizontal gene transfer. We report on a novel method for Bayesian inference of genome and species phylogenies under the multispecies network coalescent (MSNC). This framework models gene evolution within the branches of a phylogenetic network, thus incorporating reticulate evolutionary processes, such as hybridization, in addition to incomplete lineage sorting. As phylogenetic networks with different numbers of reticulation events correspond to points of different dimensions in the space of models, we devise a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) technique for sampling the posterior distribution of phylogenetic networks under MSNC. We implemented the methods in the publicly available, open-source software package PhyloNet and studied their performance on simulated and biological data. The work extends the reach of Bayesian inference to phylogenetic networks and enables new evolutionary analyses that account for reticulation. PMID:27144273

  3. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    This article proposes Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared to conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian mediation analysis, inference is straightforward and exact, which makes it appealing for studies with small samples. Third, the Bayesian approach is conceptua...

  4. Bayesian data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Gelman, Andrew; Stern, Hal S; Dunson, David B; Vehtari, Aki; Rubin, Donald B

    2013-01-01

    FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN INFERENCEProbability and InferenceSingle-Parameter Models Introduction to Multiparameter Models Asymptotics and Connections to Non-Bayesian ApproachesHierarchical ModelsFUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSISModel Checking Evaluating, Comparing, and Expanding ModelsModeling Accounting for Data Collection Decision AnalysisADVANCED COMPUTATION Introduction to Bayesian Computation Basics of Markov Chain Simulation Computationally Efficient Markov Chain Simulation Modal and Distributional ApproximationsREGRESSION MODELS Introduction to Regression Models Hierarchical Linear

  5. Bayesian Mediation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

  6. Bayesian coalescent inference reveals high evolutionary rates and diversification of Zika virus populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fajardo, Alvaro; Soñora, Martín; Moreno, Pilar; Moratorio, Gonzalo; Cristina, Juan

    2016-10-01

    Zika virus (ZIKV) is a member of the family Flaviviridae. In 2015, ZIKV triggered an epidemic in Brazil and spread across Latin America. By May of 2016, the World Health Organization warns over spread of ZIKV beyond this region. Detailed studies on the mode of evolution of ZIKV strains are extremely important for our understanding of the emergence and spread of ZIKV populations. In order to gain insight into these matters, a Bayesian coalescent Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of complete genome sequences of recently isolated ZIKV strains was performed. The results of these studies revealed a mean rate of evolution of 1.20 × 10(-3) nucleotide substitutions per site per year (s/s/y) for ZIKV strains enrolled in this study. Several variants isolated in China are grouped together with all strains isolated in Latin America. Another genetic group composed exclusively by Chinese strains were also observed, suggesting the co-circulation of different genetic lineages in China. These findings indicate a high level of diversification of ZIKV populations. Strains isolated from microcephaly cases do not share amino acid substitutions, suggesting that other factors besides viral genetic differences may play a role for the proposed pathogenesis caused by ZIKV infection. J. Med. Virol. 88:1672-1676, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27278855

  7. Back to BaySICS: a user-friendly program for Bayesian Statistical Inference from Coalescent Simulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edson Sandoval-Castellanos

    Full Text Available Inference of population demographic history has vastly improved in recent years due to a number of technological and theoretical advances including the use of ancient DNA. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC stands among the most promising methods due to its simple theoretical fundament and exceptional flexibility. However, limited availability of user-friendly programs that perform ABC analysis renders it difficult to implement, and hence programming skills are frequently required. In addition, there is limited availability of programs able to deal with heterochronous data. Here we present the software BaySICS: Bayesian Statistical Inference of Coalescent Simulations. BaySICS provides an integrated and user-friendly platform that performs ABC analyses by means of coalescent simulations from DNA sequence data. It estimates historical demographic population parameters and performs hypothesis testing by means of Bayes factors obtained from model comparisons. Although providing specific features that improve inference from datasets with heterochronous data, BaySICS also has several capabilities making it a suitable tool for analysing contemporary genetic datasets. Those capabilities include joint analysis of independent tables, a graphical interface and the implementation of Markov-chain Monte Carlo without likelihoods.

  8. Bayesian exploratory factor analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriella Conti; Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter; James Heckman; Rémi Piatek

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identifi cation criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study c...

  9. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study co...

  10. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gabriella Conti; Sylvia Fruehwirth-Schnatter; Heckman, James J.; Remi Piatek

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on \\emph{ad hoc} classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo s...

  11. Bayesian exploratory factor analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo st...

  12. Bayesian exploratory factor analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James; Piatek, Rémi

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study co...

  13. Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.;

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the...... corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates...

  14. Bayesian Independent Component Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winther, Ole; Petersen, Kaare Brandt

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...

  15. Bayesian logistic regression analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an

  16. Time-calibrated phylogenomics of the classical swine fever viruses: genome-wide bayesian coalescent approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taehyung Kwon

    Full Text Available The phylogeny of classical swine fever virus (CSFV, the causative agent of classical swine fever (CSF, has been investigated extensively. However, no evolutionary research has been performed using the whole CSFV genome. In this study, we used 37 published genome sequences to investigate the time-calibrated phylogenomics of CSFV. In phylogenomic trees based on Bayesian inference (BI and Maximum likelihood (ML, the 37 isolates were categorized into five genetic types (1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 2.3, and 3.4. Subgenotype 1.1 is divided into 3 groups and 1 unclassified isolate, 2.1 into 4 groups, 2.3 into 2 groups and 1 unclassified isolate, and subgenotype 1.2 and 3.4 consisted of one isolate each. We did not observe an apparent temporal or geographical relationship between isolates. Of the 14 genomic regions, NS4B showed the most powerful phylogenetic signal. Results of this evolutionary study using Bayesian coalescent approach indicate that CSFV has evolved at a rate of 13×.010-4 substitutions per site per year. The most recent common ancestor of CSFV appeared 2770.2 years ago, which was about 8000 years after pig domestication. The effective population size of CSFV underwent a slow increase until the 1950s, after which it has remained constant.

  17. Time-calibrated phylogenomics of the classical swine fever viruses: genome-wide bayesian coalescent approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Taehyung; Yoon, Sook Hee; Kim, Kyu-Won; Caetano-Anolles, Kelsey; Cho, Seoae; Kim, Heebal

    2015-01-01

    The phylogeny of classical swine fever virus (CSFV), the causative agent of classical swine fever (CSF), has been investigated extensively. However, no evolutionary research has been performed using the whole CSFV genome. In this study, we used 37 published genome sequences to investigate the time-calibrated phylogenomics of CSFV. In phylogenomic trees based on Bayesian inference (BI) and Maximum likelihood (ML), the 37 isolates were categorized into five genetic types (1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 2.3, and 3.4). Subgenotype 1.1 is divided into 3 groups and 1 unclassified isolate, 2.1 into 4 groups, 2.3 into 2 groups and 1 unclassified isolate, and subgenotype 1.2 and 3.4 consisted of one isolate each. We did not observe an apparent temporal or geographical relationship between isolates. Of the 14 genomic regions, NS4B showed the most powerful phylogenetic signal. Results of this evolutionary study using Bayesian coalescent approach indicate that CSFV has evolved at a rate of 13×.010-4 substitutions per site per year. The most recent common ancestor of CSFV appeared 2770.2 years ago, which was about 8000 years after pig domestication. The effective population size of CSFV underwent a slow increase until the 1950s, after which it has remained constant. PMID:25815768

  18. On Coalescence Analysis Using Genealogy Rooted Trees

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    DNA sequence data are now being used to study the ancestral history of human population. The existing methods for such coalescence inference use recursion formula to compute the data probabilities. These methods are useful in practical applications, but computationally complicated. Here we first investigate the asymptotic behavior of such inference; results indicate that, broadly, the estimated coalescent time will be consistent to a finite limit. Then we study a relatively simple computation...

  19. Bayesian Benchmark Dose Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Fang, Qijun; Piegorsch, Walter W.; Barnes, Katherine Y.

    2014-01-01

    An important objective in environmental risk assessment is estimation of minimum exposure levels, called Benchmark Doses (BMDs) that induce a pre-specified Benchmark Response (BMR) in a target population. Established inferential approaches for BMD analysis typically involve one-sided, frequentist confidence limits, leading in practice to what are called Benchmark Dose Lower Limits (BMDLs). Appeal to Bayesian modeling and credible limits for building BMDLs is far less developed, however. Indee...

  20. Bayesian nonparametric data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, Peter; Jara, Alejandro; Hanson, Tim

    2015-01-01

    This book reviews nonparametric Bayesian methods and models that have proven useful in the context of data analysis. Rather than providing an encyclopedic review of probability models, the book’s structure follows a data analysis perspective. As such, the chapters are organized by traditional data analysis problems. In selecting specific nonparametric models, simpler and more traditional models are favored over specialized ones. The discussed methods are illustrated with a wealth of examples, including applications ranging from stylized examples to case studies from recent literature. The book also includes an extensive discussion of computational methods and details on their implementation. R code for many examples is included in on-line software pages.

  1. Bayesian analysis toolkit - BAT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Statistical treatment of data is an essential part of any data analysis and interpretation. Different statistical methods and approaches can be used, however the implementation of these approaches is complicated and at times inefficient. The Bayesian analysis toolkit (BAT) is a software package developed in C++ framework that facilitates the statistical analysis of the data using Bayesian theorem. The tool evaluates the posterior probability distributions for models and their parameters using Markov Chain Monte Carlo which in turn provide straightforward parameter estimation, limit setting and uncertainty propagation. Additional algorithms, such as simulated annealing, allow extraction of the global mode of the posterior. BAT sets a well-tested environment for flexible model definition and also includes a set of predefined models for standard statistical problems. The package is interfaced to other software packages commonly used in high energy physics, such as ROOT, Minuit, RooStats and CUBA. We present a general overview of BAT and its algorithms. A few physics examples are shown to introduce the spectrum of its applications. In addition, new developments and features are summarized.

  2. BAT - Bayesian Analysis Toolkit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One of the most vital steps in any data analysis is the statistical analysis and comparison with the prediction of a theoretical model. The many uncertainties associated with the theoretical model and the observed data require a robust statistical analysis tool. The Bayesian Analysis Toolkit (BAT) is a powerful statistical analysis software package based on Bayes' Theorem, developed to evaluate the posterior probability distribution for models and their parameters. It implements Markov Chain Monte Carlo to get the full posterior probability distribution that in turn provides a straightforward parameter estimation, limit setting and uncertainty propagation. Additional algorithms, such as Simulated Annealing, allow to evaluate the global mode of the posterior. BAT is developed in C++ and allows for a flexible definition of models. A set of predefined models covering standard statistical cases are also included in BAT. It has been interfaced to other commonly used software packages such as ROOT, Minuit, RooStats and CUBA. An overview of the software and its algorithms is provided along with several physics examples to cover a range of applications of this statistical tool. Future plans, new features and recent developments are briefly discussed.

  3. Estimating Population Parameters using the Structured Serial Coalescent with Bayesian MCMC Inference when some Demes are Hidden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allen Rodrigo

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Using the structured serial coalescent with Bayesian MCMC and serial samples, we estimate population size when some demes are not sampled or are hidden, ie ghost demes. It is found that even with the presence of a ghost deme, accurate inference was possible if the parameters are estimated with the true model. However with an incorrect model, estimates were biased and can be positively misleading. We extend these results to the case where there are sequences from the ghost at the last time sample. This case can arise in HIV patients, when some tissue samples and viral sequences only become available after death. When some sequences from the ghost deme are available at the last sampling time, estimation bias is reduced and accurate estimation of parameters associated with the ghost deme is possible despite sampling bias. Migration rates for this case are also shown to be good estimates when migration values are low.

  4. Bayesian Analysis of Experimental Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lalmohan Bhar

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of experimental data from Bayesian point of view has been considered. Appropriate methodology has been developed for application into designed experiments. Normal-Gamma distribution has been considered for prior distribution. Developed methodology has been applied to real experimental data taken from long term fertilizer experiments.

  5. Bayesian analysis of rare events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straub, Daniel; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

    2016-06-01

    In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

  6. BEAST: Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drummond Alexei J

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The evolutionary analysis of molecular sequence variation is a statistical enterprise. This is reflected in the increased use of probabilistic models for phylogenetic inference, multiple sequence alignment, and molecular population genetics. Here we present BEAST: a fast, flexible software architecture for Bayesian analysis of molecular sequences related by an evolutionary tree. A large number of popular stochastic models of sequence evolution are provided and tree-based models suitable for both within- and between-species sequence data are implemented. Results BEAST version 1.4.6 consists of 81000 lines of Java source code, 779 classes and 81 packages. It provides models for DNA and protein sequence evolution, highly parametric coalescent analysis, relaxed clock phylogenetics, non-contemporaneous sequence data, statistical alignment and a wide range of options for prior distributions. BEAST source code is object-oriented, modular in design and freely available at http://beast-mcmc.googlecode.com/ under the GNU LGPL license. Conclusion BEAST is a powerful and flexible evolutionary analysis package for molecular sequence variation. It also provides a resource for the further development of new models and statistical methods of evolutionary analysis.

  7. ANALYSIS OF BAYESIAN CLASSIFIER ACCURACY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Schneider Costa

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The naïve Bayes classifier is considered one of the most effective classification algorithms today, competing with more modern and sophisticated classifiers. Despite being based on unrealistic (naïve assumption that all variables are independent, given the output class, the classifier provides proper results. However, depending on the scenario utilized (network structure, number of samples or training cases, number of variables, the network may not provide appropriate results. This study uses a process variable selection, using the chi-squared test to verify the existence of dependence between variables in the data model in order to identify the reasons which prevent a Bayesian network to provide good performance. A detailed analysis of the data is also proposed, unlike other existing work, as well as adjustments in case of limit values between two adjacent classes. Furthermore, variable weights are used in the calculation of a posteriori probabilities, calculated with mutual information function. Tests were applied in both a naïve Bayesian network and a hierarchical Bayesian network. After testing, a significant reduction in error rate has been observed. The naïve Bayesian network presented a drop in error rates from twenty five percent to five percent, considering the initial results of the classification process. In the hierarchical network, there was not only a drop in fifteen percent error rate, but also the final result came to zero.

  8. Time-Calibrated Phylogenomics of the Classical Swine Fever Viruses: Genome-Wide Bayesian Coalescent Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Kwon, Taehyung; Yoon, Sook Hee; Kim, Kyu-Won; Caetano-Anolles, Kelsey; Cho, Seoae; Kim, Heebal

    2015-01-01

    The phylogeny of classical swine fever virus (CSFV), the causative agent of classical swine fever (CSF), has been investigated extensively. However, no evolutionary research has been performed using the whole CSFV genome. In this study, we used 37 published genome sequences to investigate the time-calibrated phylogenomics of CSFV. In phylogenomic trees based on Bayesian inference (BI) and Maximum likelihood (ML), the 37 isolates were categorized into five genetic types (1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 2.3, an...

  9. Bayesian Model Averaging for Propensity Score Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David; Chen, Jianshen

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to explore Bayesian model averaging in the propensity score context. Previous research on Bayesian propensity score analysis does not take into account model uncertainty. In this regard, an internally consistent Bayesian framework for model building and estimation must also account for model uncertainty. The…

  10. Bayesian Group Factor Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Virtanen, Seppo; Klami, Arto; Khan, Suleiman A; Kaski, Samuel

    2011-01-01

    We introduce a factor analysis model that summarizes the dependencies between observed variable groups, instead of dependencies between individual variables as standard factor analysis does. A group may correspond to one view of the same set of objects, one of many data sets tied by co-occurrence, or a set of alternative variables collected from statistics tables to measure one property of interest. We show that by assuming group-wise sparse factors, active in a subset of the sets, the variat...

  11. Bayesian networks with applications in reliability analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Langseth, Helge

    2002-01-01

    A common goal of the papers in this thesis is to propose, formalize and exemplify the use of Bayesian networks as a modelling tool in reliability analysis. The papers span work in which Bayesian networks are merely used as a modelling tool (Paper I), work where models are specially designed to utilize the inference algorithms of Bayesian networks (Paper II and Paper III), and work where the focus has been on extending the applicability of Bayesian networks to very large domains (Paper IV and ...

  12. Bayesian Statistics for Biological Data: Pedigree Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanfield, William D.; Carlton, Matthew A.

    2004-01-01

    The use of Bayes' formula is applied to the biological problem of pedigree analysis to show that the Bayes' formula and non-Bayesian or "classical" methods of probability calculation give different answers. First year college students of biology can be introduced to the Bayesian statistics.

  13. Bayesian analysis of exoplanet and binary orbits

    CERN Document Server

    Schulze-Hartung, Tim; Henning, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    We introduce BASE (Bayesian astrometric and spectroscopic exoplanet detection and characterisation tool), a novel program for the combined or separate Bayesian analysis of astrometric and radial-velocity measurements of potential exoplanet hosts and binary stars. The capabilities of BASE are demonstrated using all publicly available data of the binary Mizar A.

  14. Bayesian analysis of volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Chih-Hsiang

    1990-10-01

    The simple Poisson model generally gives a good fit to many volcanoes for volcanic eruption forecasting. Nonetheless, empirical evidence suggests that volcanic activity in successive equal time-periods tends to be more variable than a simple Poisson with constant eruptive rate. An alternative model is therefore examined in which eruptive rate(λ) for a given volcano or cluster(s) of volcanoes is described by a gamma distribution (prior) rather than treated as a constant value as in the assumptions of a simple Poisson model. Bayesian analysis is performed to link two distributions together to give the aggregate behavior of the volcanic activity. When the Poisson process is expanded to accomodate a gamma mixing distribution on λ, a consequence of this mixed (or compound) Poisson model is that the frequency distribution of eruptions in any given time-period of equal length follows the negative binomial distribution (NBD). Applications of the proposed model and comparisons between the generalized model and simple Poisson model are discussed based on the historical eruptive count data of volcanoes Mauna Loa (Hawaii) and Etna (Italy). Several relevant facts lead to the conclusion that the generalized model is preferable for practical use both in space and time.

  15. Bayesian Analysis of Multivariate Probit Models

    OpenAIRE

    Siddhartha Chib; Edward Greenberg

    1996-01-01

    This paper provides a unified simulation-based Bayesian and non-Bayesian analysis of correlated binary data using the multivariate probit model. The posterior distribution is simulated by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, and maximum likelihood estimates are obtained by a Markov chain Monte Carlo version of the E-M algorithm. Computation of Bayes factors from the simulation output is also considered. The methods are applied to a bivariate data set, to a 534-subject, four-year longitudinal dat...

  16. Subjective Bayesian Analysis: Principles and Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Goldstein, Michael

    2006-01-01

    We address the position of subjectivism within Bayesian statistics. We argue, first, that the subjectivist Bayes approach is the only feasible method for tackling many important practical problems. Second, we describe the essential role of the subjectivist approach in scientific analysis. Third, we consider possible modifications to the Bayesian approach from a subjectivist viewpoint. Finally, we address the issue of pragmatism in implementing the subjectivist approach.

  17. Bayesian analysis of contingency tables

    OpenAIRE

    Gómez Villegas, Miguel A.; González Pérez, Beatriz

    2005-01-01

    The display of the data by means of contingency tables is used in different approaches to statistical inference, for example, to broach the test of homogeneity of independent multinomial distributions. We develop a Bayesian procedure to test simple null hypotheses versus bilateral alternatives in contingency tables. Given independent samples of two binomial distributions and taking a mixed prior distribution, we calculate the posterior probability that the proportion of successes in the first...

  18. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person's state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs

  19. Bayesian analysis of cosmic structures

    CERN Document Server

    Kitaura, Francisco-Shu

    2011-01-01

    We revise the Bayesian inference steps required to analyse the cosmological large-scale structure. Here we make special emphasis in the complications which arise due to the non-Gaussian character of the galaxy and matter distribution. In particular we investigate the advantages and limitations of the Poisson-lognormal model and discuss how to extend this work. With the lognormal prior using the Hamiltonian sampling technique and on scales of about 4 h^{-1} Mpc we find that the over-dense regions are excellent reconstructed, however, under-dense regions (void statistics) are quantitatively poorly recovered. Contrary to the maximum a posteriori (MAP) solution which was shown to over-estimate the density in the under-dense regions we obtain lower densities than in N-body simulations. This is due to the fact that the MAP solution is conservative whereas the full posterior yields samples which are consistent with the prior statistics. The lognormal prior is not able to capture the full non-linear regime at scales ...

  20. BEAST: Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees

    OpenAIRE

    Drummond Alexei J; Rambaut Andrew

    2007-01-01

    Abstract Background The evolutionary analysis of molecular sequence variation is a statistical enterprise. This is reflected in the increased use of probabilistic models for phylogenetic inference, multiple sequence alignment, and molecular population genetics. Here we present BEAST: a fast, flexible software architecture for Bayesian analysis of molecular sequences related by an evolutionary tree. A large number of popular stochastic models of sequence evolution are provided and tree-based m...

  1. BEAST: Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees

    OpenAIRE

    Drummond, Alexei J.; Rambaut, Andrew

    2007-01-01

    Background: The evolutionary analysis of molecular sequence variation is a statistical enterprise. This is reflected in the increased use of probabilistic models for phylogenetic inference, multiple sequence alignment, and molecular population genetics. Here we present BEAST: a fast, flexible software architecture for Bayesian analysis of molecular sequences related by an evolutionary tree. A large number of popular stochastic models of sequence evolution are provided and tree-based models su...

  2. A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis : Applications to Developmental Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A G

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, t

  3. A SAS Interface for Bayesian Analysis with WinBUGS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiyong; McArdle, John J.; Wang, Lijuan; Hamagami, Fumiaki

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian methods are becoming very popular despite some practical difficulties in implementation. To assist in the practical application of Bayesian methods, we show how to implement Bayesian analysis with WinBUGS as part of a standard set of SAS routines. This implementation procedure is first illustrated by fitting a multiple regression model…

  4. Bayesian analysis of matrix data with rstiefel

    OpenAIRE

    Hoff, Peter D.

    2013-01-01

    We illustrate the use of the R-package "rstiefel" for matrix-variate data analysis in the context of two examples. The first example considers estimation of a reduced-rank mean matrix in the presence of normally distributed noise. The second example considers the modeling of a social network of friendships among teenagers. Bayesian estimation for these models requires the ability to simulate from the matrix-variate von Mises-Fisher distributions and the matrix-variate Bingham distributions on...

  5. Book review: Bayesian analysis for population ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, William A.

    2011-01-01

    Brian Dennis described the field of ecology as “fertile, uncolonized ground for Bayesian ideas.” He continued: “The Bayesian propagule has arrived at the shore. Ecologists need to think long and hard about the consequences of a Bayesian ecology. The Bayesian outlook is a successful competitor, but is it a weed? I think so.” (Dennis 2004)

  6. Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cripps, Edward; Wood, Robert E.; Beckmann, Nadin; Lau, John; Beckmann, Jens F.; Cripps, Sally Ann

    2016-01-01

    A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine whether the patterns of within-person responses on a 12-trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999). ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiraling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of processes at the level of the individual, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques. PMID:27486415

  7. Bayesian Analysis of Individual Level Personality Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cripps, Edward; Wood, Robert E; Beckmann, Nadin; Lau, John; Beckmann, Jens F; Cripps, Sally Ann

    2016-01-01

    A Bayesian technique with analyses of within-person processes at the level of the individual is presented. The approach is used to examine whether the patterns of within-person responses on a 12-trial simulation task are consistent with the predictions of ITA theory (Dweck, 1999). ITA theory states that the performance of an individual with an entity theory of ability is more likely to spiral down following a failure experience than the performance of an individual with an incremental theory of ability. This is because entity theorists interpret failure experiences as evidence of a lack of ability which they believe is largely innate and therefore relatively fixed; whilst incremental theorists believe in the malleability of abilities and interpret failure experiences as evidence of more controllable factors such as poor strategy or lack of effort. The results of our analyses support ITA theory at both the within- and between-person levels of analyses and demonstrate the benefits of Bayesian techniques for the analysis of within-person processes. These include more formal specification of the theory and the ability to draw inferences about each individual, which allows for more nuanced interpretations of individuals within a personality category, such as differences in the individual probabilities of spiraling. While Bayesian techniques have many potential advantages for the analyses of processes at the level of the individual, ease of use is not one of them for psychologists trained in traditional frequentist statistical techniques. PMID:27486415

  8. Estimation of hominoid ancestral population sizes under bayesian coalescent models incorporating mutation rate variation and sequencing errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, Ralph; Yang, Ziheng

    2008-09-01

    Estimation of population parameters for the common ancestors of humans and the great apes is important in understanding our evolutionary history. In particular, inference of population size for the human-chimpanzee common ancestor may shed light on the process by which the 2 species separated and on whether the human population experienced a severe size reduction in its early evolutionary history. In this study, the Bayesian method of ancestral inference of Rannala and Yang (2003. Bayes estimation of species divergence times and ancestral population sizes using DNA sequences from multiple loci. Genetics. 164:1645-1656) was extended to accommodate variable mutation rates among loci and random species-specific sequencing errors. The model was applied to analyze a genome-wide data set of approximately 15,000 neutral loci (7.4 Mb) aligned for human, chimpanzee, gorilla, orangutan, and macaque. We obtained robust and precise estimates for effective population sizes along the hominoid lineage extending back approximately 30 Myr to the cercopithecoid divergence. The results showed that ancestral populations were 5-10 times larger than modern humans along the entire hominoid lineage. The estimates were robust to the priors used and to model assumptions about recombination. The unusually low X chromosome divergence between human and chimpanzee could not be explained by variation in the male mutation bias or by current models of hybridization and introgression. Instead, our parameter estimates were consistent with a simple instantaneous process for human-chimpanzee speciation but showed a major reduction in X chromosome effective population size peculiar to the human-chimpanzee common ancestor, possibly due to selective sweeps on the X prior to separation of the 2 species. PMID:18603620

  9. Bayesian Analysis of Type Ia Supernova Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王晓峰; 周旭; 李宗伟; 陈黎

    2003-01-01

    Recently, the distances to type Ia supernova (SN Ia) at z ~ 0.5 have been measured with the motivation of estimating cosmological parameters. However, different sleuthing techniques tend to give inconsistent measurements for SN Ia distances (~0.3 mag), which significantly affects the determination of cosmological parameters.A Bayesian "hyper-parameter" procedure is used to analyse jointly the current SN Ia data, which considers the relative weights of different datasets. For a flat Universe, the combining analysis yields ΩM = 0.20 ± 0.07.

  10. Doing bayesian data analysis a tutorial with R and BUGS

    CERN Document Server

    Kruschke, John K

    2011-01-01

    There is an explosion of interest in Bayesian statistics, primarily because recently created computational methods have finally made Bayesian analysis obtainable to a wide audience. Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, A Tutorial Introduction with R and BUGS provides an accessible approach to Bayesian data analysis, as material is explained clearly with concrete examples. The book begins with the basics, including essential concepts of probability and random sampling, and gradually progresses to advanced hierarchical modeling methods for realistic data. The text delivers comprehensive coverage of all

  11. The Application of Bayesian Analysis to Issues in Developmental Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Lawrence J.; Gustafson, Paul; Frimer, Jeremy A.

    2007-01-01

    This article reviews the concepts and methods of Bayesian statistical analysis, which can offer innovative and powerful solutions to some challenging analytical problems that characterize developmental research. In this article, we demonstrate the utility of Bayesian analysis, explain its unique adeptness in some circumstances, address some…

  12. BAT-The Bayesian Analysis Toolkit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main goals of data analysis are to infer the free parameters of models from data, to draw conclusions on the models' validity, and to compare their predictions allowing to select the most appropriate model. The Bayesian Analysis Toolkit, BAT, is a tool developed to evaluate the posterior probability distribution for models and their parameters. It is centered around Bayes' Theorem and is realized with the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo giving access to the full posterior probability distribution. This enables straightforward parameter estimation, limit setting and uncertainty propagation. Additional algorithms, such as Simulated Annealing, allow to evaluate the global mode of the posterior. BAT is implemented in C++ and allows for a flexible definition of models. It is interfaced to software packages commonly used in high-energy physics: ROOT, Minuit, RooStats and CUBA. A set of predefined models exists to cover standard statistical problems.

  13. Confirmation via Analogue Simulation: A Bayesian Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Dardashti, Radin; Thebault, Karim P Y; Winsberg, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Analogue simulation is a novel mode of scientific inference found increasingly within modern physics, and yet all but neglected in the philosophical literature. Experiments conducted upon a table-top 'source system' are taken to provide insight into features of an inaccessible 'target system', based upon a syntactic isomorphism between the relevant modelling frameworks. An important example is the use of acoustic 'dumb hole' systems to simulate gravitational black holes. In a recent paper it was argued that there exists circumstances in which confirmation via analogue simulation can obtain; in particular when the robustness of the isomorphism is established via universality arguments. The current paper supports these claims via an analysis in terms of Bayesian confirmation theory.

  14. Hydrodynamic effects on coalescence.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dimiduk, Thomas G.; Bourdon, Christopher Jay; Grillet, Anne Mary; Baer, Thomas A.; de Boer, Maarten Pieter; Loewenberg, Michael (Yale University, New Haven, CT); Gorby, Allen D.; Brooks, Carlton, F.

    2006-10-01

    The goal of this project was to design, build and test novel diagnostics to probe the effect of hydrodynamic forces on coalescence dynamics. Our investigation focused on how a drop coalesces onto a flat surface which is analogous to two drops coalescing, but more amenable to precise experimental measurements. We designed and built a flow cell to create an axisymmetric compression flow which brings a drop onto a flat surface. A computer-controlled system manipulates the flow to steer the drop and maintain a symmetric flow. Particle image velocimetry was performed to confirm that the control system was delivering a well conditioned flow. To examine the dynamics of the coalescence, we implemented an interferometry capability to measure the drainage of the thin film between the drop and the surface during the coalescence process. A semi-automated analysis routine was developed which converts the dynamic interferogram series into drop shape evolution data.

  15. Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, Robert

    2016-01-01

    During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

  16. Nucleotide variation and balancing selection at the Ckma gene in Atlantic cod: analysis with multiple merger coalescent models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Einar Árnason

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available High-fecundity organisms, such as Atlantic cod, can withstand substantial natural selection and the entailing genetic load of replacing alleles at a number of loci due to their excess reproductive capacity. High-fecundity organisms may reproduce by sweepstakes leading to highly skewed heavy-tailed offspring distribution. Under such reproduction the Kingman coalescent of binary mergers breaks down and models of multiple merger coalescent are more appropriate. Here we study nucleotide variation at the Ckma (Creatine Kinase Muscle type A gene in Atlantic cod. The gene shows extreme differentiation between the North (Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Barents Sea and the South (Faroe Islands, North-, Baltic-, Celtic-, and Irish Seas with FST > 0.8 between regions whereas neutral loci show no differentiation. This is evidence of natural selection. The protein sequence is conserved by purifying selection whereas silent and non-coding sites show extreme differentiation. The unfolded site-frequency spectrum has three modes, a mode at singleton sites and two high frequency modes at opposite frequencies representing divergent branches of the gene genealogy that is evidence for balancing selection. Analysis with multiple-merger coalescent models can account for the high frequency of singleton sites and indicate reproductive sweepstakes. Coalescent time scales vary with population size and with the inverse of variance in offspring number. Parameter estimates using multiple-merger coalescent models show that times scales are faster than under the Kingman coalescent.

  17. Ockham's razor and Bayesian analysis. [statistical theory for systems evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jefferys, William H.; Berger, James O.

    1992-01-01

    'Ockham's razor', the ad hoc principle enjoining the greatest possible simplicity in theoretical explanations, is presently shown to be justifiable as a consequence of Bayesian inference; Bayesian analysis can, moreover, clarify the nature of the 'simplest' hypothesis consistent with the given data. By choosing the prior probabilities of hypotheses, it becomes possible to quantify the scientific judgment that simpler hypotheses are more likely to be correct. Bayesian analysis also shows that a hypothesis with fewer adjustable parameters intrinsically possesses an enhanced posterior probability, due to the clarity of its predictions.

  18. Bayesian analysis for EMP damaged function based on Weibull distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weibull distribution is one of the most commonly used statistical distribution in EMP vulnerability analysis. In the paper, the EMP damage function based on Weibull distribution of solid state relays was solved by bayesian computation using gibbs sampling algorithm. (authors)

  19. Analysis of KATRIN data using Bayesian inference

    CERN Document Server

    Riis, Anna Sejersen; Weinheimer, Christian

    2011-01-01

    The KATRIN (KArlsruhe TRItium Neutrino) experiment will be analyzing the tritium beta-spectrum to determine the mass of the neutrino with a sensitivity of 0.2 eV (90% C.L.). This approach to a measurement of the absolute value of the neutrino mass relies only on the principle of energy conservation and can in some sense be called model-independent as compared to cosmology and neutrino-less double beta decay. However by model independent we only mean in case of the minimal extension of the standard model. One should therefore also analyse the data for non-standard couplings to e.g. righthanded or sterile neutrinos. As an alternative to the frequentist minimization methods used in the analysis of the earlier experiments in Mainz and Troitsk we have been investigating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which are very well suited for probing multi-parameter spaces. We found that implementing the KATRIN chi squared function in the COSMOMC package - an MCMC code using Bayesian parameter inference - solved the ...

  20. Objective Bayesian Analysis of Skew- t Distributions

    KAUST Repository

    BRANCO, MARCIA D'ELIA

    2012-02-27

    We study the Jeffreys prior and its properties for the shape parameter of univariate skew-t distributions with linear and nonlinear Student\\'s t skewing functions. In both cases, we show that the resulting priors for the shape parameter are symmetric around zero and proper. Moreover, we propose a Student\\'s t approximation of the Jeffreys prior that makes an objective Bayesian analysis easy to perform. We carry out a Monte Carlo simulation study that demonstrates an overall better behaviour of the maximum a posteriori estimator compared with the maximum likelihood estimator. We also compare the frequentist coverage of the credible intervals based on the Jeffreys prior and its approximation and show that they are similar. We further discuss location-scale models under scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions and show some conditions for the existence of the posterior distribution and its moments. Finally, we present three numerical examples to illustrate the implications of our results on inference for skew-t distributions. © 2012 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics.

  1. Low-latency analysis pipeline for compact binary coalescences in the advanced gravitational wave detector era

    CERN Document Server

    Adams, T; Germain, V; Guidi, G M; Marion, F; Montani, M; Mours, B; Piergiovanni, F; Wang, G

    2015-01-01

    The Multi-Band Template Analysis (MBTA) pipeline is a low-latency coincident analysis pipeline for the detection of gravitational waves (GWs) from compact binary coalescences (CBCs). MBTA runs with a low computational cost, and can identify candidate GW events online with a sub-minute latency. The low computational running cost of MBTA also makes it useful for data quality studies. Events detected by MBTA online can be used to alert astronomical partners for electromagnetic (EM) follow-up. We outline the current status of MBTA and give details of recent pipeline upgrades and validation tests that were performed in preparation for the first advanced detector observing period. The MBTA pipeline is ready for the outset of the advanced detector era and the exciting prospects it will bring.

  2. Results From Analysis Of The First And Second Strip Effluent Coalescer Elements From Radioactive Operations Of The Modular Caustic-Side Solvent Extraction Unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The coalescer elements for the Strip Effluent (SE) acid within the Modular Caustic-Side Solvent Extraction Unit (MCU) experienced elevated differential pressure drop during radioactive operations. Following the end of operations for the first Macrobatch campaign and soon after start of the second Macrobatch campaign, personnel removed the coalescer media and provided to Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) for diagnostic investigation of the causes of reduced flow. This report summarizes those studies. Two Strip Effluent (SE) coalescers were delivered to the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). One was removed from the Modular Caustic-Side Solvent Extraction Unit (MCU) between processing of Macrobatch 1 and 2 (coalescer 'Alpha'), and the second was removed from MCU after processing of ∼24,000 gallons of salt solution (coalescer 'Beta'). Both coalescers underwent the same general strip acid flush program to reduce the dose and were delivered to SRNL for analysis of potential occluding solids. Analysis of Coalescer Alpha indicates the presence of aluminum hydroxide solids and aluminosilicate solids, while analysis of Coalescer Beta indicates the presence of aluminum hydroxide solids, but no aluminosilicates. Leaching studies on sections of both coalescers were performed. The results indicate that the coalescers had different amounts of solids present on them at the time of removal. Finally, samples of free liquids retrieved from both coalescers indicate no excessive amounts of CSSX solvent present. Given the strip acid flushing that occurred in the SE coalescers, the solids we detected on the coalescers are probably indicative of a larger quantity of these solids present before the strip acid flushing. Under this scenario, the excessive pressure drops are due to the solids and not from organic fouling.

  3. Bayesian analysis of Markov point processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berthelsen, Kasper Klitgaard; Møller, Jesper

    2006-01-01

    Recently Møller, Pettitt, Berthelsen and Reeves introduced a new MCMC methodology for drawing samples from a posterior distribution when the likelihood function is only specified up to a normalising constant. We illustrate the method in the setting of Bayesian inference for Markov point processes...

  4. Medical decision making tools: Bayesian analysis and ROC analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During the diagnostic process of the various oral and maxillofacial lesions, we should consider the following: 'When should we order diagnostic tests? What tests should be ordered? How should we interpret the results clinically? And how should we use this frequently imperfect information to make optimal medical decision?' For the clinicians to make proper judgement, several decision making tools are suggested. This article discusses the concept of the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity values) with several decision making tools such as decision matrix, ROC analysis and Bayesian analysis. The article also explain the introductory concept of ORAD program

  5. PAC-Bayesian Analysis of Martingales and Multiarmed Bandits

    CERN Document Server

    Seldin, Yevgeny; Shawe-Taylor, John; Peters, Jan; Auer, Peter

    2011-01-01

    We present two alternative ways to apply PAC-Bayesian analysis to sequences of dependent random variables. The first is based on a new lemma that enables to bound expectations of convex functions of certain dependent random variables by expectations of the same functions of independent Bernoulli random variables. This lemma provides an alternative tool to Hoeffding-Azuma inequality to bound concentration of martingale values. Our second approach is based on integration of Hoeffding-Azuma inequality with PAC-Bayesian analysis. We also introduce a way to apply PAC-Bayesian analysis in situation of limited feedback. We combine the new tools to derive PAC-Bayesian generalization and regret bounds for the multiarmed bandit problem. Although our regret bound is not yet as tight as state-of-the-art regret bounds based on other well-established techniques, our results significantly expand the range of potential applications of PAC-Bayesian analysis and introduce a new analysis tool to reinforcement learning and many ...

  6. MATHEMATICAL RISK ANALYSIS: VIA NICHOLAS RISK MODEL AND BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anass BAYAGA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this second part of a two-phased study was to explorethe predictive power of quantitative risk analysis (QRA method andprocess within Higher Education Institution (HEI. The method and process investigated the use impact analysis via Nicholas risk model and Bayesian analysis, with a sample of hundred (100 risk analysts in a historically black South African University in the greater Eastern Cape Province.The first findings supported and confirmed previous literature (KingIII report, 2009: Nicholas and Steyn, 2008: Stoney, 2007: COSA, 2004 that there was a direct relationship between risk factor, its likelihood and impact, certiris paribus. The second finding in relation to either controlling the likelihood or the impact of occurrence of risk (Nicholas risk model was that to have a brighter risk reward, it was important to control the likelihood ofoccurrence of risks as compared with its impact so to have a direct effect on entire University. On the Bayesian analysis, thus third finding, the impact of risk should be predicted along three aspects. These aspects included the human impact (decisions made, the property impact (students and infrastructural based and the business impact. Lastly, the study revealed that although in most business cases, where as business cycles considerably vary dependingon the industry and or the institution, this study revealed that, most impacts in HEI (University was within the period of one academic.The recommendation was that application of quantitative risk analysisshould be related to current legislative framework that affects HEI.

  7. Baltic sea algae analysis using Bayesian spatial statistics methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eglė Baltmiškytė

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Spatial statistics is one of the fields in statistics dealing with spatialy spread data analysis. Recently, Bayes methods are often applied for data statistical analysis. A spatial data model for predicting algae quantity in the Baltic Sea is made and described in this article. Black Carrageen is a dependent variable and depth, sand, pebble, boulders are independent variables in the described model. Two models with different covariation functions (Gaussian and exponential are built to estimate the best model fitting for algae quantity prediction. Unknown model parameters are estimated and Bayesian kriging prediction posterior distribution is computed in OpenBUGS modeling environment by using Bayesian spatial statistics methods.

  8. Analysis of Gumbel Model for Software Reliability Using Bayesian Paradigm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raj Kumar

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we have illustrated the suitability of Gumbel Model for software reliability data. The model parameters are estimated using likelihood based inferential procedure: classical as well as Bayesian. The quasi Newton-Raphson algorithm is applied to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates and associated probability intervals. The Bayesian estimates of the parameters of Gumbel model are obtained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC simulation method in OpenBUGS(established software for Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. The R functions are developed to study the statistical properties, model validation and comparison tools of the model and the output analysis of MCMC samples generated from OpenBUGS. Details of applying MCMC to parameter estimation for the Gumbel model are elaborated and a real software reliability data set is considered to illustrate the methods of inference discussed in this paper.

  9. Nested sampling applied in Bayesian room-acoustics decay analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasa, Tomislav; Xiang, Ning

    2012-11-01

    Room-acoustic energy decays often exhibit single-rate or multiple-rate characteristics in a wide variety of rooms/halls. Both the energy decay order and decay parameter estimation are of practical significance in architectural acoustics applications, representing two different levels of Bayesian probabilistic inference. This paper discusses a model-based sound energy decay analysis within a Bayesian framework utilizing the nested sampling algorithm. The nested sampling algorithm is specifically developed to evaluate the Bayesian evidence required for determining the energy decay order with decay parameter estimates as a secondary result. Taking the energy decay analysis in architectural acoustics as an example, this paper demonstrates that two different levels of inference, decay model-selection and decay parameter estimation, can be cohesively accomplished by the nested sampling algorithm. PMID:23145609

  10. APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS TO A LAGRANGIAN PHOTOCHEMICAL AIR QUALITY MODEL. (R824792)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uncertainties in ozone concentrations predicted with a Lagrangian photochemical air quality model have been estimated using Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) analysis. Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis provides a means of combining subjective "prior" uncertainty estimates developed ...

  11. Phycas: software for Bayesian phylogenetic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Paul O; Holder, Mark T; Swofford, David L

    2015-05-01

    Phycas is open source, freely available Bayesian phylogenetics software written primarily in C++ but with a Python interface. Phycas specializes in Bayesian model selection for nucleotide sequence data, particularly the estimation of marginal likelihoods, central to computing Bayes Factors. Marginal likelihoods can be estimated using newer methods (Thermodynamic Integration and Generalized Steppingstone) that are more accurate than the widely used Harmonic Mean estimator. In addition, Phycas supports two posterior predictive approaches to model selection: Gelfand-Ghosh and Conditional Predictive Ordinates. The General Time Reversible family of substitution models, as well as a codon model, are available, and data can be partitioned with all parameters unlinked except tree topology and edge lengths. Phycas provides for analyses in which the prior on tree topologies allows polytomous trees as well as fully resolved trees, and provides for several choices for edge length priors, including a hierarchical model as well as the recently described compound Dirichlet prior, which helps avoid overly informative induced priors on tree length. PMID:25577605

  12. Research & development and growth: A Bayesian model averaging analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horváth, Roman

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 28, č. 6 (2011), s. 2669-2673. ISSN 0264-9993. [Society for Non-linear Dynamics and Econometrics Annual Conferencen. Washington DC, 16.03.2011-18.03.2011] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Research and development * Growth * Bayesian model averaging Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.701, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/E/horvath-research & development and growth a bayesian model averaging analysis.pdf

  13. On Bayesian analysis of on-off measurements

    CERN Document Server

    Nosek, Dalibor

    2016-01-01

    We propose an analytical solution to the on-off problem within the framework of Bayesian statistics. Both the statistical significance for the discovery of new phenomena and credible intervals on model parameters are presented in a consistent way. We use a large enough family of prior distributions of relevant parameters. The proposed analysis is designed to provide Bayesian solutions that can be used for any number of observed on-off events, including zero. The procedure is checked using Monte Carlo simulations. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated on examples from gamma-ray astronomy.

  14. Computational Analysis of Coagulation and Coalescence in the Flame Synthesis of Titania Particles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johannessen, Jens Tue; Pratsinis, S.E.; Livbjerg, Hans

    2000-01-01

    A method of combining computational fluid dynamics with a mathematical model for the particle dynamics has been applied to simulate experimental data from the synthesis of TiO2-particles in diffusion flames. Parameters of the coalescence kinetics are estimated by fitting the model predictions to ...... small-angle X-ray scattering measurements. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science BN. All rights reserved....

  15. TIGER: A data analysis pipeline for testing the strong-field dynamics of general relativity with gravitational wave signals from coalescing compact binaries

    CERN Document Server

    Agathos, Michalis; Li, Tjonnie G F; Broeck, Chris Van Den; Veitch, John; Vitale, Salvatore

    2013-01-01

    The direct detection of gravitational waves with upcoming second-generation gravitational wave detectors such as Advanced LIGO and Virgo will allow us to probe the genuinely strong-field dynamics of general relativity (GR) for the first time. We present a data analysis pipeline called TIGER (Test Infrastructure for GEneral Relativity), which is designed to utilize detections of compact binary coalescences to test GR in this regime. TIGER is a model-independent test of GR itself, in that it is not necessary to compare with any specific alternative theory. It performs Bayesian inference on two hypotheses: the GR hypothesis $\\mathcal{H}_{\\rm GR}$, and $\\mathcal{H}_{\\rm modGR}$, which states that one or more of the post-Newtonian coefficients in the waveform are not as predicted by GR. By the use of multiple sub-hypotheses of $\\mathcal{H}_{\\rm modGR}$, in each of which a different number of parameterized deformations of the GR phase are allowed, an arbitrarily large number of 'testing parameters' can be used with...

  16. A Bayesian Predictive Discriminant Analysis with Screened Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hea-Jung Kim

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the application of discriminant analysis, a situation sometimes arises where individual measurements are screened by a multidimensional screening scheme. For this situation, a discriminant analysis with screened populations is considered from a Bayesian viewpoint, and an optimal predictive rule for the analysis is proposed. In order to establish a flexible method to incorporate the prior information of the screening mechanism, we propose a hierarchical screened scale mixture of normal (HSSMN model, which makes provision for flexible modeling of the screened observations. An Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method using the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm within the Gibbs sampler is used to perform a Bayesian inference on the HSSMN models and to approximate the optimal predictive rule. A simulation study is given to demonstrate the performance of the proposed predictive discrimination procedure.

  17. Evaluation of a Partial Genome Screening of Two Asthma Susceptibility Regions Using Bayesian Network Based Bayesian Multilevel Analysis of Relevance

    OpenAIRE

    Ildikó Ungvári; Gábor Hullám; Péter Antal; Petra Sz Kiszel; András Gézsi; Éva Hadadi; Viktor Virág; Gergely Hajós; András Millinghoffer; Adrienne Nagy; András Kiss; Semsei, Ágnes F.; Gergely Temesi; Béla Melegh; Péter Kisfali

    2012-01-01

    Genetic studies indicate high number of potential factors related to asthma. Based on earlier linkage analyses we selected the 11q13 and 14q22 asthma susceptibility regions, for which we designed a partial genome screening study using 145 SNPs in 1201 individuals (436 asthmatic children and 765 controls). The results were evaluated with traditional frequentist methods and we applied a new statistical method, called bayesian network based bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance (BN-BMLA). Th...

  18. Bayesian Variable Selection in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel A. Negrín

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Linear regression models are often used to represent the cost and effectiveness of medical treatment. The covariates used may include sociodemographic variables, such as age, gender or race; clinical variables, such as initial health status, years of treatment or the existence of concomitant illnesses; and a binary variable indicating the treatment received. However, most studies estimate only one model, which usually includes all the covariates. This procedure ignores the question of uncertainty in model selection. In this paper, we examine four alternative Bayesian variable selection methods that have been proposed. In this analysis, we estimate the inclusion probability of each covariate in the real model conditional on the data. Variable selection can be useful for estimating incremental effectiveness and incremental cost, through Bayesian model averaging, as well as for subgroup analysis.

  19. Bayesian phylogeny analysis via stochastic approximation Monte Carlo

    KAUST Repository

    Cheon, Sooyoung

    2009-11-01

    Monte Carlo methods have received much attention in the recent literature of phylogeny analysis. However, the conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, such as the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, tend to get trapped in a local mode in simulating from the posterior distribution of phylogenetic trees, rendering the inference ineffective. In this paper, we apply an advanced Monte Carlo algorithm, the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm, to Bayesian phylogeny analysis. Our method is compared with two popular Bayesian phylogeny software, BAMBE and MrBayes, on simulated and real datasets. The numerical results indicate that our method outperforms BAMBE and MrBayes. Among the three methods, SAMC produces the consensus trees which have the highest similarity to the true trees, and the model parameter estimates which have the smallest mean square errors, but costs the least CPU time. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Non-stationarity in GARCH models: A Bayesian analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Kleibergen, Frank; Dijk, Herman

    1993-01-01

    textabstractFirst, the non-stationarity properties of the conditional variances in the GARCH(1,1) model are analysed using the concept of infinite persistence of shocks. Given a time sequence of probabilities for increasing/decreasing conditional variances, a theoretical formula for quasi-strict non-stationarity is defined. The resulting conditions for the GARCH(1,1) model are shown to differ from the weak stationarity conditions mainly used in the literature. Bayesian statistical analysis us...

  1. Using Bayesian Population Viability Analysis to Define Relevant Conservation Objectives

    OpenAIRE

    Green, Adam W.; Bailey, Larissa L.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive management provides a useful framework for managing natural resources in the face of uncertainty. An important component of adaptive management is identifying clear, measurable conservation objectives that reflect the desired outcomes of stakeholders. A common objective is to have a sustainable population, or metapopulation, but it can be difficult to quantify a threshold above which such a population is likely to persist. We performed a Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis (BM...

  2. REMITTANCES, DUTCH DISEASE, AND COMPETITIVENESS: A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    OpenAIRE

    FARID MAKHLOUF; MAZHAR MUGHAL

    2013-01-01

    The paper studies symptoms of Dutch disease in the Pakistani economy arising from international remittances. An IV Bayesian analysis is carried out to take care of the endogeneity and uncertainty due to the managed float of Pakistani Rupee. We find evidence for both spending and resource movement effects in both the short and the long-run. These impacts are stronger and different from those the Official Development Assistance and the FDI exert. We find that while aggregate remittances and the...

  3. Optimizing Nuclear Reaction Analysis (NRA) using Bayesian Experimental Design

    OpenAIRE

    von Toussaint, U.; Schwarz-Selinger, T.; Gori, S.

    2008-01-01

    Nuclear Reaction Analysis with ${}^{3}$He holds the promise to measure Deuterium depth profiles up to large depths. However, the extraction of the depth profile from the measured data is an ill-posed inversion problem. Here we demonstrate how Bayesian Experimental Design can be used to optimize the number of measurements as well as the measurement energies to maximize the information gain. Comparison of the inversion properties of the optimized design with standard settings reveals huge possi...

  4. Bayesian-network-based safety risk analysis in construction projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to ensure the reliability of the surveyed data for fuzzy probability assessment of basic risk factors. A detailed fuzzy-based inference procedure is developed, which has a capacity of implementing deductive reasoning, sensitivity analysis and abductive reasoning. The “3σ criterion” is adopted to calculate the characteristic values of a triangular fuzzy number in the probability fuzzification process, and the α-weighted valuation method is adopted for defuzzification. The construction safety analysis progress is extended to the entire life cycle of risk-prone events, including the pre-accident, during-construction continuous and post-accident control. A typical hazard concerning the tunnel leakage in the construction of Wuhan Yangtze Metro Tunnel in China is presented as a case study, in order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach and its application potential. A comparison of advantages and disadvantages between FBN and fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) as risk analysis tools is also conducted. The proposed approach can be used to provide guidelines for safety analysis and management in construction projects, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex environment. - Highlights: • A systemic Bayesian network based approach for safety risk analysis is developed. • An expert confidence indicator for probability fuzzification is proposed. • Safety risk analysis progress is extended to entire life cycle of risk-prone events. • A typical

  5. BaTMAn: Bayesian Technique for Multi-image Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Casado, J; García-Benito, R; Guidi, G; Choudhury, O S; Bellocchi, E; Sánchez, S; Díaz, A I

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the Bayesian Technique for Multi-image Analysis (BaTMAn), a novel image segmentation technique based on Bayesian statistics, whose main purpose is to characterize an astronomical dataset containing spatial information and perform a tessellation based on the measurements and errors provided as input. The algorithm will iteratively merge spatial elements as long as they are statistically consistent with carrying the same information (i.e. signal compatible with being identical within the errors). We illustrate its operation and performance with a set of test cases that comprises both synthetic and real Integral-Field Spectroscopic (IFS) data. Our results show that the segmentations obtained by BaTMAn adapt to the underlying structure of the data, regardless of the precise details of their morphology and the statistical properties of the noise. The quality of the recovered signal represents an improvement with respect to the input, especially in those regions where the signal is actually con...

  6. Bayesian networks for omics data analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gavai, A.K.

    2009-01-01

    This thesis focuses on two aspects of high throughput technologies, i.e. data storage and data analysis, in particular in transcriptomics and metabolomics. Both technologies are part of a research field that is generally called ‘omics’ (or ‘-omics’, with a leading hyphen), which refers to genomics,

  7. Nonparametric Bayesian Negative Binomial Factor Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Zhou, Mingyuan

    2016-01-01

    A common approach to analyze an attribute-instance count matrix, an element of which represents how many times an attribute appears in an instance, is to factorize it under the Poisson likelihood. We show its limitation in capturing the tendency for an attribute present in an instance to both repeat itself and excite related ones. To address this limitation, we construct negative binomial factor analysis (NBFA) to factorize the matrix under the negative binomial likelihood, and relate it to a...

  8. Bayesian networks for omics data analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Gavai, A.K.

    2009-01-01

    This thesis focuses on two aspects of high throughput technologies, i.e. data storage and data analysis, in particular in transcriptomics and metabolomics. Both technologies are part of a research field that is generally called ‘omics’ (or ‘-omics’, with a leading hyphen), which refers to genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, or metabolomics. Although these techniques study different entities (genes, gene expression, proteins, or metabolites), they all have in common that they use high-throu...

  9. Computational Analysis of Coagulation and Coalescence in the Flame Synthesis of Titania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johannessen, Tue; Pratsinis, Sotiris E.; Livbjerg, Hans

    2001-01-01

    A method of combining computational fluid dynamics with a mathematical model for the particle dynamics has been applied to simulate experimental data from the synthesis of TiO -particles in diffusion flames. Parameters of the coalescence kinetics are estimated by fitting the model predictions to...... the measured specific surface area of the product particles. The estimated kinetics can be used to predict the surface area and aggregate structure of the particles for a wide range of synthesis conditions. The regular equation for the rate of coagulation is modified to take into account the effect of...

  10. Bayesian analysis for extreme climatic events: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Pao-Shin; Zhao, Xin

    2011-11-01

    This article reviews Bayesian analysis methods applied to extreme climatic data. We particularly focus on applications to three different problems related to extreme climatic events including detection of abrupt regime shifts, clustering tropical cyclone tracks, and statistical forecasting for seasonal tropical cyclone activity. For identifying potential change points in an extreme event count series, a hierarchical Bayesian framework involving three layers - data, parameter, and hypothesis - is formulated to demonstrate the posterior probability of the shifts throughout the time. For the data layer, a Poisson process with a gamma distributed rate is presumed. For the hypothesis layer, multiple candidate hypotheses with different change-points are considered. To calculate the posterior probability for each hypothesis and its associated parameters we developed an exact analytical formula, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, and a more sophisticated reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm. The algorithms are applied to several rare event series: the annual tropical cyclone or typhoon counts over the central, eastern, and western North Pacific; the annual extremely heavy rainfall event counts at Manoa, Hawaii; and the annual heat wave frequency in France. Using an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, a Bayesian clustering method built on a mixture Gaussian model is applied to objectively classify historical, spaghetti-like tropical cyclone tracks (1945-2007) over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea into eight distinct track types. A regression based approach to forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone frequency in a region is developed. Specifically, by adopting large-scale environmental conditions prior to the tropical cyclone season, a Poisson regression model is built for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone counts, and a probit regression model is alternatively developed toward a binary classification problem. With a non

  11. Bayesian analysis to detect abrupt changes in extreme hydrological processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jo, Seongil; Kim, Gwangsu; Jeon, Jong-June

    2016-07-01

    In this study, we develop a new method for a Bayesian change point analysis. The proposed method is easy to implement and can be extended to a wide class of distributions. Using a generalized extreme-value distribution, we investigate the annual maximum of precipitations observed at stations in the South Korean Peninsula, and find significant changes in the considered sites. We evaluate the hydrological risk in predictions using the estimated return levels. In addition, we explain that the misspecification of the probability model can lead to a bias in the number of change points and using a simple example, show that this problem is difficult to avoid by technical data transformation.

  12. A Bayesian analysis of pentaquark signals from CLAS data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We examine the results of two measurements by the CLAS collaboration, one of which claimed evidence for a Θ+ pentaquark, whilst the other found no such evidence. The unique feature of these two experiments was that they were performed with the same experimental setup. Using a Bayesian analysis we find that the results of the two experiments are in fact compatible with each other, but that the first measurement did not contain sufficient information to determine unambiguously the existence of a Θ+. Further, we suggest a means by which the existence of a new candidate particle can be tested in a rigorous manner

  13. A Bayesian analysis of pentaquark signals from CLAS data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David Ireland; Bryan McKinnon; Dan Protopopescu; Pawel Ambrozewicz; Marco Anghinolfi; G. Asryan; Harutyun Avakian; H. Bagdasaryan; Nathan Baillie; Jacques Ball; Nathan Baltzell; V. Batourine; Marco Battaglieri; Ivan Bedlinski; Ivan Bedlinskiy; Matthew Bellis; Nawal Benmouna; Barry Berman; Angela Biselli; Lukasz Blaszczyk; Sylvain Bouchigny; Sergey Boyarinov; Robert Bradford; Derek Branford; William Briscoe; William Brooks; Volker Burkert; Cornel Butuceanu; John Calarco; Sharon Careccia; Daniel Carman; Liam Casey; Shifeng Chen; Lu Cheng; Philip Cole; Patrick Collins; Philip Coltharp; Donald Crabb; Volker Crede; Natalya Dashyan; Rita De Masi; Raffaella De Vita; Enzo De Sanctis; Pavel Degtiarenko; Alexandre Deur; Richard Dickson; Chaden Djalali; Gail Dodge; Joseph Donnelly; David Doughty; Michael Dugger; Oleksandr Dzyubak; Hovanes Egiyan; Kim Egiyan; Lamiaa Elfassi; Latifa Elouadrhiri; Paul Eugenio; Gleb Fedotov; Gerald Feldman; Ahmed Fradi; Herbert Funsten; Michel Garcon; Gagik Gavalian; Nerses Gevorgyan; Gerard Gilfoyle; Kevin Giovanetti; Francois-Xavier Girod; John Goetz; Wesley Gohn; Atilla Gonenc; Ralf Gothe; Keith Griffioen; Michel Guidal; Nevzat Guler; Lei Guo; Vardan Gyurjyan; Kawtar Hafidi; Hayk Hakobyan; Charles Hanretty; Neil Hassall; F. Hersman; Ishaq Hleiqawi; Maurik Holtrop; Charles Hyde; Yordanka Ilieva; Boris Ishkhanov; Eugeny Isupov; D. Jenkins; Hyon-Suk Jo; John Johnstone; Kyungseon Joo; Henry Juengst; Narbe Kalantarians; James Kellie; Mahbubul Khandaker; Wooyoung Kim; Andreas Klein; Franz Klein; Mikhail Kossov; Zebulun Krahn; Laird Kramer; Valery Kubarovsky; Joachim Kuhn; Sergey Kuleshov; Viacheslav Kuznetsov; Jeff Lachniet; Jean Laget; Jorn Langheinrich; D. Lawrence; Kenneth Livingston; Haiyun Lu; Marion MacCormick; Nikolai Markov; Paul Mattione; Bernhard Mecking; Mac Mestayer; Curtis Meyer; Tsutomu Mibe; Konstantin Mikhaylov; Marco Mirazita; Rory Miskimen; Viktor Mokeev; Brahim Moreno; Kei Moriya; Steven Morrow; Maryam Moteabbed; Edwin Munevar Espitia; Gordon Mutchler; Pawel Nadel-Turonski; Rakhsha Nasseripour; Silvia Niccolai; Gabriel Niculescu; Maria-Ioana Niculescu; Bogdan Niczyporuk; Megh Niroula; Rustam Niyazov; Mina Nozar; Mikhail Osipenko; Alexander Ostrovidov; Kijun Park; Evgueni Pasyuk; Craig Paterson; Sergio Pereira; Joshua Pierce; Nikolay Pivnyuk; Oleg Pogorelko; Sergey Pozdnyakov; John Price; Sebastien Procureur; Yelena Prok; Brian Raue; Giovanni Ricco; Marco Ripani; Barry Ritchie; Federico Ronchetti; Guenther Rosner; Patrizia Rossi; Franck Sabatie; Julian Salamanca; Carlos Salgado; Joseph Santoro; Vladimir Sapunenko; Reinhard Schumacher; Vladimir Serov; Youri Sharabian; Dmitri Sharov; Nikolay Shvedunov; Elton Smith; Lee Smith; Daniel Sober; Daria Sokhan; Aleksey Stavinskiy; Samuel Stepanyan; Stepan Stepanyan; Burnham Stokes; Paul Stoler; Steffen Strauch; Mauro Taiuti; David Tedeschi; Ulrike Thoma; Avtandil Tkabladze; Svyatoslav Tkachenko; Clarisse Tur; Maurizio Ungaro; Michael Vineyard; Alexander Vlassov; Daniel Watts; Lawrence Weinstein; Dennis Weygand; M. Williams; Elliott Wolin; M.H. Wood; Amrit Yegneswaran; Lorenzo Zana; Jixie Zhang; Bo Zhao; Zhiwen Zhao

    2008-02-01

    We examine the results of two measurements by the CLAS collaboration, one of which claimed evidence for a $\\Theta^{+}$ pentaquark, whilst the other found no such evidence. The unique feature of these two experiments was that they were performed with the same experimental setup. Using a Bayesian analysis we find that the results of the two experiments are in fact compatible with each other, but that the first measurement did not contain sufficient information to determine unambiguously the existence of a $\\Theta^{+}$. Further, we suggest a means by which the existence of a new candidate particle can be tested in a rigorous manner.

  14. A Bayesian analysis of pentaquark signals from CLAS data

    CERN Document Server

    Ireland, D G; Protopopescu, D; Ambrozewicz, P; Anghinolfi, M; Asryan, G; Avakian, H; Bagdasaryan, H; Baillie, N; Ball, J P; Baltzell, N A; Batourine, V; Battaglieri, M; Bedlinskiy, I; Bellis, M; Benmouna, N; Berman, B L; Biselli, A S; Blaszczyk, L; Bouchigny, S; Boiarinov, S; Bradford, R; Branford, D; Briscoe, W J; Brooks, W K; Burkert, V D; Butuceanu, C; Calarco, J R; Careccia, S L; Carman, D S; Casey, L; Chen, S; Cheng, L; Cole, P L; Collins, P; Coltharp, P; Crabb, D; Credé, V; Dashyan, N; De Masi, R; De Vita, R; De Sanctis, E; Degtyarenko, P V; Deur, A; Dickson, R; Djalali, C; Dodge, G E; Donnelly, J; Doughty, D; Dugger, M; Dzyubak, O P; Egiyan, H; Egiyan, K S; El Fassi, L; Elouadrhiri, L; Eugenio, P; Fedotov, G; Feldman, G; Fradi, A; Funsten, H; Garçon, M; Gavalian, G; Gevorgyan, N; Gilfoyle, G P; Giovanetti, K L; Girod, F X; Goetz, J T; Gohn, W; Gonenc, A; Gothe, R W; Griffioen, K A; Guidal, M; Guler, N; Guo, L; Gyurjyan, V; Hafidi, K; Hakobyan, H; Hanretty, C; Hassall, N; Hersman, F W; Hleiqawi, I; Holtrop, M; Hyde-Wright, C E; Ilieva, Y; Ishkhanov, B S; Isupov, E L; Jenkins, D; Jo, H S; Johnstone, J R; Joo, K; Jüngst, H G; Kalantarians, N; Kellie, J D; Khandaker, M; Kim, W; Klein, A; Klein, F J; Kossov, M; Krahn, Z; Kramer, L H; Kubarovski, V; Kühn, J; Kuleshov, S V; Kuznetsov, V; Lachniet, J; Laget, J M; Langheinrich, J; Lawrence, D; Livingston, K; Lu, H Y; MacCormick, M; Markov, N; Mattione, P; Mecking, B A; Mestayer, M D; Meyer, C A; Mibe, T; Mikhailov, K; Mirazita, M; Miskimen, R; Mokeev, V; Moreno, B; Moriya, K; Morrow, S A; Moteabbed, M; Munevar, E; Mutchler, G S; Nadel-Turonski, P; Nasseripour, R; Niccolai, S; Niculescu, G; Niculescu, I; Niczyporuk, B B; Niroula, M R; Niyazov, R A; Nozar, M; Osipenko, M; Ostrovidov, A I; Park, K; Pasyuk, E; Paterson, C; Anefalos Pereira, S; Pierce, J; Pivnyuk, N; Pogorelko, O; Pozdniakov, S; Price, J W; Procureur, S; Prok, Y; Raue, B A; Ricco, G; Ripani, M; Ritchie, B G; Ronchetti, F; Rosner, G; Rossi, P; Sabatie, F; Salamanca, J; Salgado, C; Santoro, J P; Sapunenko, V; Schumacher, R A; Serov, V S; Sharabyan, Yu G; Sharov, D; Shvedunov, N V; Smith, E S; Smith, L C; Sober, D I; Sokhan, D; Stavinsky, A; Stepanyan, S S; Stepanyan, S; Stokes, B E; Stoler, P; Strauch, S; Taiuti, M; Tedeschi, D J; Thoma, U; Tkabladze, A; Tkachenko, S; Tur, C; Ungaro, M; Vineyard, M F; Vlassov, A V; Watts, D P; Weinstein, L B; Weygand, D P; Williams, M; Wolin, E; Wood, M H; Yegneswaran, A; Zana, L; Zhang, J; Zhao, B; Zhao, Z W

    2007-01-01

    We examine the results of two measurements by the CLAS collaboration, one of which claimed evidence for a $\\Theta^{+}$ pentaquark, whilst the other found no such evidence. The unique feature of these two experiments was that they were performed with the same experimental setup. Using a Bayesian analysis we find that the results of the two experiments are in fact compatible with each other, but that the first measurement did not contain sufficient information to determine unambiguously the existence of a $\\Theta^{+}$. Further, we suggest a means by which the existence of a new candidate particle can be tested in a rigorous manner.

  15. Development of bayesian update database for PRA data analysis (BUDDA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is necessary what independent plant PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) for risk informed applications of nuclear power plant. Therefore, it must build the environment that the utilities can efficiently collect PRA data, and can estimate PRA parameters without statistical expertise. This report explains development of failure events analysis DB for PRA failure rate computation using bayesian update technique. BUDDA has the function to compute failure rate with a combination of multiple DB (include the pre-installed data based on NUCIA), and to manage independent plant DB (failure events, number of components, operation time, number of demand , prior distributions). (author)

  16. Safety Analysis of Liquid Rocket Engine Using Bayesian Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Hua-wei; YAN Zhi-qiang

    2007-01-01

    Safety analysis for liquid rocket engine has a great meaning for shortening development cycle, saving development expenditure and reducing development risk. The relationship between the structure and component of liquid rocket engine is much more complex, furthermore test data are absent in development phase. Thereby, the uncertainties exist in safety analysis for liquid rocket engine. A safety analysis model integrated with FMEA(failure mode and effect analysis)based on Bayesian networks (BN) is brought forward for liquid rocket engine, which can combine qualitative analysis with quantitative decision. The method has the advantages of fusing multi-information, saving sample amount and having high veracity. An example shows that the method is efficient.

  17. Implementation of a Bayesian Engine for Uncertainty Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leng Vang; Curtis Smith; Steven Prescott

    2014-08-01

    In probabilistic risk assessment, it is important to have an environment where analysts have access to a shared and secured high performance computing and a statistical analysis tool package. As part of the advanced small modular reactor probabilistic risk analysis framework implementation, we have identified the need for advanced Bayesian computations. However, in order to make this technology available to non-specialists, there is also a need of a simplified tool that allows users to author models and evaluate them within this framework. As a proof-of-concept, we have implemented an advanced open source Bayesian inference tool, OpenBUGS, within the browser-based cloud risk analysis framework that is under development at the Idaho National Laboratory. This development, the “OpenBUGS Scripter” has been implemented as a client side, visual web-based and integrated development environment for creating OpenBUGS language scripts. It depends on the shared server environment to execute the generated scripts and to transmit results back to the user. The visual models are in the form of linked diagrams, from which we automatically create the applicable OpenBUGS script that matches the diagram. These diagrams can be saved locally or stored on the server environment to be shared with other users.

  18. Bayesian analysis of inflationary features in Planck and SDSS data

    CERN Document Server

    Benetti, Micol

    2016-01-01

    We perform a Bayesian analysis to study possible features in the primordial inflationary power spectrum of scalar perturbations. In particular, we analyse the possibility of detecting the imprint of these primordial features in the anisotropy temperature power spectrum of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and also in the matter power spectrum P (k). We use the most recent CMB data provided by the Planck Collaboration and P (k) measurements from the eleventh data release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We focus our analysis on a class of potentials whose features are localised at different intervals of angular scales, corresponding to multipoles in the ranges 10 < l < 60 (Oscill-1) and 150 < l < 300 (Oscill-2). Our results show that one of the step-potentials (Oscill-1) provides a better fit to the CMB data than does the featureless LCDM scenario, with a moderate Bayesian evidence in favor of the former. Adding the P (k) data to the analysis weakens the evidence of the Oscill-1 potential relat...

  19. Analysis of Wave Directional Spreading by Bayesian Parameter Estimation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    钱桦; 莊士贤; 高家俊

    2002-01-01

    A spatial array of wave gauges installed on an observatoion platform has been designed and arranged to measure the lo-cal features of winter monsoon directional waves off Taishi coast of Taiwan. A new method, named the Bayesian ParameterEstimation Method( BPEM), is developed and adopted to determine the main direction and the directional spreading parame-ter of directional spectra. The BPEM could be considered as a regression analysis to find the maximum joint probability ofparameters, which best approximates the observed data from the Bayesian viewpoint. The result of the analysis of field wavedata demonstrates the highly dependency of the characteristics of normalized directional spreading on the wave age. The Mit-suyasu type empirical formula of directional spectnun is therefore modified to be representative of monsoon wave field. More-over, it is suggested that Smax could be expressed as a function of wave steepness. The values of Smax decrease with increas-ing steepness. Finally, a local directional spreading model, which is simple to be utilized in engineering practice, is prop-osed.

  20. Bayesian analysis of physiologically based toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hack, C Eric

    2006-04-17

    Physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) and toxicodynamic (TD) models of bromate in animals and humans would improve our ability to accurately estimate the toxic doses in humans based on available animal studies. These mathematical models are often highly parameterized and must be calibrated in order for the model predictions of internal dose to adequately fit the experimentally measured doses. Highly parameterized models are difficult to calibrate and it is difficult to obtain accurate estimates of uncertainty or variability in model parameters with commonly used frequentist calibration methods, such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) or least squared error approaches. The Bayesian approach called Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis can be used to successfully calibrate these complex models. Prior knowledge about the biological system and associated model parameters is easily incorporated in this approach in the form of prior parameter distributions, and the distributions are refined or updated using experimental data to generate posterior distributions of parameter estimates. The goal of this paper is to give the non-mathematician a brief description of the Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis, how this technique is used in risk assessment, and the issues associated with this approach. PMID:16466842

  1. Node Augmentation Technique in Bayesian Network Evidence Analysis and Marshaling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keselman, Dmitry [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Tompkins, George H [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Leishman, Deborah A [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    Given a Bayesian network, sensitivity analysis is an important activity. This paper begins by describing a network augmentation technique which can simplifY the analysis. Next, we present two techniques which allow the user to determination the probability distribution of a hypothesis node under conditions of uncertain evidence; i.e. the state of an evidence node or nodes is described by a user specified probability distribution. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of three criteria for ranking evidence nodes based on their influence on a hypothesis node. All of these techniques have been used in conjunction with a commercial software package. A Bayesian network based on a directed acyclic graph (DAG) G is a graphical representation of a system of random variables that satisfies the following Markov property: any node (random variable) is independent of its non-descendants given the state of all its parents (Neapolitan, 2004). For simplicities sake, we consider only discrete variables with a finite number of states, though most of the conclusions may be generalized.

  2. Inference algorithms and learning theory for Bayesian sparse factor analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayesian sparse factor analysis has many applications; for example, it has been applied to the problem of inferring a sparse regulatory network from gene expression data. We describe a number of inference algorithms for Bayesian sparse factor analysis using a slab and spike mixture prior. These include well-established Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational Bayes (VB) algorithms as well as a novel hybrid of VB and Expectation Propagation (EP). For the case of a single latent factor we derive a theory for learning performance using the replica method. We compare the MCMC and VB/EP algorithm results with simulated data to the theoretical prediction. The results for MCMC agree closely with the theory as expected. Results for VB/EP are slightly sub-optimal but show that the new algorithm is effective for sparse inference. In large-scale problems MCMC is infeasible due to computational limitations and the VB/EP algorithm then provides a very useful computationally efficient alternative.

  3. A Bayesian analysis of two probability models describing thunderstorm activity at Cape Kennedy, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williford, W. O.; Hsieh, P.; Carter, M. C.

    1974-01-01

    A Bayesian analysis of the two discrete probability models, the negative binomial and the modified negative binomial distributions, which have been used to describe thunderstorm activity at Cape Kennedy, Florida, is presented. The Bayesian approach with beta prior distributions is compared to the classical approach which uses a moment method of estimation or a maximum-likelihood method. The accuracy and simplicity of the Bayesian method is demonstrated.

  4. Coalescent Theory Analysis of Population Collapse and Recovery in a Neutral Evolution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Dawn; Bahar, Sonya

    As we move through the Anthropocene Epoch, human-driven climate change is predicted to accelerate extinction risk in the near future. Therefore, understanding basic underlying mechanisms of population loss and recovery could be paramount to saving key species in changing ecosystems. Here, we present an evolutionary model that investigates the dynamics of population collapse and recovery following a simulated mass extinction. Previously, we have shown that nonequilibrium, continuous phase transitions of the directed percolation universality class occur as a function of two different control parameters: the mutability, μ, which dictates how phenotypically different an offspring can be from its parent, and the death probability, δ, which probabilistically removes organisms within each generation. Here, we characterize the phylogenetic tree structures at two levels of biological organization--the organism and species level. Using methods from coalescent theory, we examine the phylogenetic tree structures at, and above, criticality, by considering common descent. The times to most recent common ancestor show phase transition behavior, as well as scale-free branching behavior at both levels of organization. We further examine these genealogical structures pre- and post-extinction. This research was supported by funding from the James S. McDonnell Foundation.

  5. Bayesian networks inference algorithm to implement Dempster Shafer theory in reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper deals with the use of Bayesian networks to compute system reliability. The reliability analysis problem is described and the usual methods for quantitative reliability analysis are presented within a case study. Some drawbacks that justify the use of Bayesian networks are identified. The basic concepts of the Bayesian networks application to reliability analysis are introduced and a model to compute the reliability for the case study is presented. Dempster Shafer theory to treat epistemic uncertainty in reliability analysis is then discussed and its basic concepts that can be applied thanks to the Bayesian network inference algorithm are introduced. Finally, it is shown, with a numerical example, how Bayesian networks' inference algorithms compute complex system reliability and what the Dempster Shafer theory can provide to reliability analysis

  6. Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using Bayesian networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Zhi; Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-02-01

    In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures. PMID:25264172

  7. Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations

    CERN Document Server

    Scargle, Jeffrey D; Jackson, Brad; Chiang, James

    2012-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it - an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks (Scargle 1998) - that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piecewise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multi-variate time series data, analysis of vari...

  8. Bayesian large-scale structure inference and cosmic web analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Leclercq, Florent

    2015-01-01

    Surveys of the cosmic large-scale structure carry opportunities for building and testing cosmological theories about the origin and evolution of the Universe. This endeavor requires appropriate data assimilation tools, for establishing the contact between survey catalogs and models of structure formation. In this thesis, we present an innovative statistical approach for the ab initio simultaneous analysis of the formation history and morphology of the cosmic web: the BORG algorithm infers the primordial density fluctuations and produces physical reconstructions of the dark matter distribution that underlies observed galaxies, by assimilating the survey data into a cosmological structure formation model. The method, based on Bayesian probability theory, provides accurate means of uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate the application of BORG to the Sloan Digital Sky Survey data and describe the primordial and late-time large-scale structure in the observed volume. We show how the approach has led to the fi...

  9. Bayesian analysis of factors associated with fibromyalgia syndrome subjects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayawardana, Veroni; Mondal, Sumona; Russek, Leslie

    2015-01-01

    Factors contributing to movement-related fear were assessed by Russek, et al. 2014 for subjects with Fibromyalgia (FM) based on the collected data by a national internet survey of community-based individuals. The study focused on the variables, Activities-Specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC), Primary Care Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder screen (PC-PTSD), Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia (TSK), a Joint Hypermobility Syndrome screen (JHS), Vertigo Symptom Scale (VSS-SF), Obsessive-Compulsive Personality Disorder (OCPD), Pain, work status and physical activity dependent from the "Revised Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire" (FIQR). The study presented in this paper revisits same data with a Bayesian analysis where appropriate priors were introduced for variables selected in the Russek's paper.

  10. A Bayesian analysis of regularised source inversions in gravitational lensing

    CERN Document Server

    Suyu, S H; Hobson, M P; Marshall, P J

    2006-01-01

    Strong gravitational lens systems with extended sources are of special interest because they provide additional constraints on the models of the lens systems. To use a gravitational lens system for measuring the Hubble constant, one would need to determine the lens potential and the source intensity distribution simultaneously. A linear inversion method to reconstruct a pixellated source distribution of a given lens potential model was introduced by Warren and Dye. In the inversion process, a regularisation on the source intensity is often needed to ensure a successful inversion with a faithful resulting source. In this paper, we use Bayesian analysis to determine the optimal regularisation constant (strength of regularisation) of a given form of regularisation and to objectively choose the optimal form of regularisation given a selection of regularisations. We consider and compare quantitatively three different forms of regularisation previously described in the literature for source inversions in gravitatio...

  11. A Bayesian Seismic Hazard Analysis for the city of Naples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faenza, Licia; Pierdominici, Simona; Hainzl, Sebastian; Cinti, Francesca R.; Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Perfetti, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    In the last years many studies have been focused on determination and definition of the seismic, volcanic and tsunamogenic hazard in the city of Naples. The reason is that the town of Naples with its neighboring area is one of the most densely populated places in Italy. In addition, the risk is increased also by the type and condition of buildings and monuments in the city. It is crucial therefore to assess which active faults in Naples and surrounding area could trigger an earthquake able to shake and damage the urban area. We collect data from the most reliable and complete databases of macroseismic intensity records (from 79 AD to present). For each seismic event an active tectonic structure has been associated. Furthermore a set of active faults, well-known from geological investigations, located around the study area that they could shake the city, not associated with any earthquake, has been taken into account for our studies. This geological framework is the starting point for our Bayesian seismic hazard analysis for the city of Naples. We show the feasibility of formulating the hazard assessment procedure to include the information of past earthquakes into the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. This strategy allows on one hand to enlarge the information used in the evaluation of the hazard, from alternative models for the earthquake generation process to past shaking and on the other hand to explicitly account for all kinds of information and their uncertainties. The Bayesian scheme we propose is applied to evaluate the seismic hazard of Naples. We implement five different spatio-temporal models to parameterize the occurrence of earthquakes potentially dangerous for Naples. Subsequently we combine these hazard curves with ShakeMap of past earthquakes that have been felt in Naples. The results are posterior hazard assessment for three exposure times, e.g., 50, 10 and 5 years, in a dense grid that cover the municipality of Naples, considering bedrock soil

  12. A Bayesian latent group analysis for detecting poor effort in the assessment of malingering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Ortega; E.-J. Wagenmakers; M.D. Lee; H.J. Markowitsch; M. Piefke

    2012-01-01

    Despite their theoretical appeal, Bayesian methods for the assessment of poor effort and malingering are still rarely used in neuropsychological research and clinical diagnosis. In this article, we outline a novel and easy-to-use Bayesian latent group analysis of malingering whose goal is to identif

  13. Multivariate meta-analysis of mixed outcomes: a Bayesian approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bujkiewicz, Sylwia; Thompson, John R; Sutton, Alex J; Cooper, Nicola J; Harrison, Mark J; Symmons, Deborah P M; Abrams, Keith R

    2013-09-30

    Multivariate random effects meta-analysis (MRMA) is an appropriate way for synthesizing data from studies reporting multiple correlated outcomes. In a Bayesian framework, it has great potential for integrating evidence from a variety of sources. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model for MRMA of mixed outcomes, which extends previously developed bivariate models to the trivariate case and also allows for combination of multiple outcomes that are both continuous and binary. We have constructed informative prior distributions for the correlations by using external evidence. Prior distributions for the within-study correlations were constructed by employing external individual patent data and using a double bootstrap method to obtain the correlations between mixed outcomes. The between-study model of MRMA was parameterized in the form of a product of a series of univariate conditional normal distributions. This allowed us to place explicit prior distributions on the between-study correlations, which were constructed using external summary data. Traditionally, independent 'vague' prior distributions are placed on all parameters of the model. In contrast to this approach, we constructed prior distributions for the between-study model parameters in a way that takes into account the inter-relationship between them. This is a flexible method that can be extended to incorporate mixed outcomes other than continuous and binary and beyond the trivariate case. We have applied this model to a motivating example in rheumatoid arthritis with the aim of incorporating all available evidence in the synthesis and potentially reducing uncertainty around the estimate of interest. PMID:23630081

  14. Evaluation of a partial genome screening of two asthma susceptibility regions using bayesian network based bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ildikó Ungvári

    Full Text Available Genetic studies indicate high number of potential factors related to asthma. Based on earlier linkage analyses we selected the 11q13 and 14q22 asthma susceptibility regions, for which we designed a partial genome screening study using 145 SNPs in 1201 individuals (436 asthmatic children and 765 controls. The results were evaluated with traditional frequentist methods and we applied a new statistical method, called bayesian network based bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance (BN-BMLA. This method uses bayesian network representation to provide detailed characterization of the relevance of factors, such as joint significance, the type of dependency, and multi-target aspects. We estimated posteriors for these relations within the bayesian statistical framework, in order to estimate the posteriors whether a variable is directly relevant or its association is only mediated.With frequentist methods one SNP (rs3751464 in the FRMD6 gene provided evidence for an association with asthma (OR = 1.43(1.2-1.8; p = 3×10(-4. The possible role of the FRMD6 gene in asthma was also confirmed in an animal model and human asthmatics.In the BN-BMLA analysis altogether 5 SNPs in 4 genes were found relevant in connection with asthma phenotype: PRPF19 on chromosome 11, and FRMD6, PTGER2 and PTGDR on chromosome 14. In a subsequent step a partial dataset containing rhinitis and further clinical parameters was used, which allowed the analysis of relevance of SNPs for asthma and multiple targets. These analyses suggested that SNPs in the AHNAK and MS4A2 genes were indirectly associated with asthma. This paper indicates that BN-BMLA explores the relevant factors more comprehensively than traditional statistical methods and extends the scope of strong relevance based methods to include partial relevance, global characterization of relevance and multi-target relevance.

  15. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  16. Bayesian meta-analysis models for microarray data: a comparative study

    OpenAIRE

    Song Joon J; Conlon Erin M; Liu Anna

    2007-01-01

    Abstract Background With the growing abundance of microarray data, statistical methods are increasingly needed to integrate results across studies. Two common approaches for meta-analysis of microarrays include either combining gene expression measures across studies or combining summaries such as p-values, probabilities or ranks. Here, we compare two Bayesian meta-analysis models that are analogous to these methods. Results Two Bayesian meta-analysis models for microarray data have recently ...

  17. Bayesian Analysis of Graphical Models of Marginal Independence for Three Way Contingency Tables

    OpenAIRE

    Tarantola, Claudia; Ntzoufras, Ioannis

    2012-01-01

    This paper deals with the Bayesian analysis of graphical models of marginal independence for three way contingency tables. Each marginal independence model corresponds to a particular factorization of the cell probabilities and a conjugate analysis based on Dirichlet prior can be performed. We illustrate a comprehensive Bayesian analysis of such models, involving suitable choices of prior parameters, estimation, model determination, as well as the allied computational issues. The posterior di...

  18. New Ephemeris for LSI+61 303, A Bayesian Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, P. C.

    1997-12-01

    The luminous early-type binary LSI+61 303 is an interesting radio, X-ray and possible gamma-ray source. At radio wavelengths it exhibits periodic outbursts with an approximate period of 26.5 days as well as a longer term modulation of the outburst peaks of approximately 4 years. Recently Paredes et al. have found evidence that the X-ray outbursts are very likely to recur with the same radio outburst period from an analysis of RXTE all sky monitoring data. The system has been observed by many groups at all wavelengths but still the energy source powering the radio outbursts and their relation to the high energy emission remains a mystery. For more details see the "LSI+61 303 Resource Page" at http://www.srl.caltech.edu/personnel/paulr/lsi.html . There has been increasing evidence for a change in the period of the system. We will present a new ephemeris for the system based on a Bayesian analysis of 20 years of radio observations including the GBI-NASA radio monitoring data.

  19. Thermodynamically consistent Bayesian analysis of closed biochemical reaction systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goutsias John

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimating the rate constants of a biochemical reaction system with known stoichiometry from noisy time series measurements of molecular concentrations is an important step for building predictive models of cellular function. Inference techniques currently available in the literature may produce rate constant values that defy necessary constraints imposed by the fundamental laws of thermodynamics. As a result, these techniques may lead to biochemical reaction systems whose concentration dynamics could not possibly occur in nature. Therefore, development of a thermodynamically consistent approach for estimating the rate constants of a biochemical reaction system is highly desirable. Results We introduce a Bayesian analysis approach for computing thermodynamically consistent estimates of the rate constants of a closed biochemical reaction system with known stoichiometry given experimental data. Our method employs an appropriately designed prior probability density function that effectively integrates fundamental biophysical and thermodynamic knowledge into the inference problem. Moreover, it takes into account experimental strategies for collecting informative observations of molecular concentrations through perturbations. The proposed method employs a maximization-expectation-maximization algorithm that provides thermodynamically feasible estimates of the rate constant values and computes appropriate measures of estimation accuracy. We demonstrate various aspects of the proposed method on synthetic data obtained by simulating a subset of a well-known model of the EGF/ERK signaling pathway, and examine its robustness under conditions that violate key assumptions. Software, coded in MATLAB®, which implements all Bayesian analysis techniques discussed in this paper, is available free of charge at http://www.cis.jhu.edu/~goutsias/CSS%20lab/software.html. Conclusions Our approach provides an attractive statistical methodology for

  20. Bayesian Analysis of Dynamic Multivariate Models with Multiple Structural Breaks

    OpenAIRE

    Sugita, Katsuhiro

    2006-01-01

    This paper considers a vector autoregressive model or a vector error correction model with multiple structural breaks in any subset of parameters, using a Bayesian approach with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation technique. The number of structural breaks is determined as a sort of model selection by the posterior odds. For a cointegrated model, cointegrating rank is also allowed to change with breaks. Bayesian approach by Strachan (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 21 (2003) 185) ...

  1. Compositional ideas in the bayesian analysis of categorical data with application to dose finding clinical trials

    OpenAIRE

    Gasparini, Mauro; Eisele, J

    2003-01-01

    Compositional random vectors are fundamental tools in the Bayesian analysis of categorical data. Many of the issues that are discussed with reference to the statistical analysis of compositional data have a natural counterpart in the construction of a Bayesian statistical model for categorical data. This note builds on the idea of cross-fertilization of the two areas recommended by Aitchison (1986) in his seminal book on compositional data. Particular emphasis is put on the pro...

  2. Bayesian Analysis of Marginal Log-Linear Graphical Models for Three Way Contingency Tables

    OpenAIRE

    Ntzoufras, Ioannis; Tarantola, Claudia

    2008-01-01

    This paper deals with the Bayesian analysis of graphical models of marginal independence for three way contingency tables. We use a marginal log-linear parametrization, under which the model is defined through suitable zero-constraints on the interaction parameters calculated within marginal distributions. We undertake a comprehensive Bayesian analysis of these models, involving suitable choices of prior distributions, estimation, model determination, as well as the allied computational issue...

  3. A Bayesian analysis of plutonium exposures in Sellafield workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puncher, M; Riddell, A E

    2016-03-01

    The joint Russian (Mayak Production Association) and British (Sellafield) plutonium worker epidemiological analysis, undertaken as part of the European Union Framework Programme 7 (FP7) SOLO project, aims to investigate potential associations between cancer incidence and occupational exposures to plutonium using estimates of organ/tissue doses. The dose reconstruction protocol derived for the study makes best use of the most recent biokinetic models derived by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) including a recent update to the human respiratory tract model (HRTM). This protocol was used to derive the final point estimates of absorbed doses for the study. Although uncertainties on the dose estimates were not included in the final epidemiological analysis, a separate Bayesian analysis has been performed for each of the 11 808 Sellafield plutonium workers included in the study in order to assess: A. The reliability of the point estimates provided to the epidemiologists and B. The magnitude of the uncertainty on dose estimates. This analysis, which accounts for uncertainties in biokinetic model parameters, intakes and measurement uncertainties, is described in the present paper. The results show that there is excellent agreement between the point estimates of dose and posterior mean values of dose. However, it is also evident that there are significant uncertainties associated with these dose estimates: the geometric range of the 97.5%:2.5% posterior values are a factor of 100 for lung dose, 30 for doses to liver and red bone marrow, and 40 for intakes: these uncertainties are not reflected in estimates of risk when point doses are used to assess them. It is also shown that better estimates of certain key HRTM absorption parameters could significantly reduce the uncertainties on lung dose in future studies. PMID:26584413

  4. Bayesian analysis of multimodal data and brain imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assadi, Amir H.; Eghbalnia, Hamid; Backonja, Miroslav; Wakai, Ronald T.; Rutecki, Paul; Haughton, Victor

    2000-06-01

    It is often the case that information about a process can be obtained using a variety of methods. Each method is employed because of specific advantages over the competing alternatives. An example in medical neuro-imaging is the choice between fMRI and MEG modes where fMRI can provide high spatial resolution in comparison to the superior temporal resolution of MEG. The combination of data from varying modes provides the opportunity to infer results that may not be possible by means of any one mode alone. We discuss a Bayesian and learning theoretic framework for enhanced feature extraction that is particularly suited to multi-modal investigations of massive data sets from multiple experiments. In the following Bayesian approach, acquired knowledge (information) regarding various aspects of the process are all directly incorporated into the formulation. This information can come from a variety of sources. In our case, it represents statistical information obtained from other modes of data collection. The information is used to train a learning machine to estimate a probability distribution, which is used in turn by a second machine as a prior, in order to produce a more refined estimation of the distribution of events. The computational demand of the algorithm is handled by proposing a distributed parallel implementation on a cluster of workstations that can be scaled to address real-time needs if required. We provide a simulation of these methods on a set of synthetically generated MEG and EEG data. We show how spatial and temporal resolutions improve by using prior distributions. The method on fMRI signals permits one to construct the probability distribution of the non-linear hemodynamics of the human brain (real data). These computational results are in agreement with biologically based measurements of other labs, as reported to us by researchers from UK. We also provide preliminary analysis involving multi-electrode cortical recording that accompanies

  5. Light curve demography via Bayesian functional data analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loredo, Thomas; Budavari, Tamas; Hendry, Martin A.; Kowal, Daniel; Ruppert, David

    2015-08-01

    Synoptic time-domain surveys provide astronomers, not simply more data, but a different kind of data: large ensembles of multivariate, irregularly and asynchronously sampled light curves. We describe a statistical framework for light curve demography—optimal accumulation and extraction of information, not only along individual light curves as conventional methods do, but also across large ensembles of related light curves. We build the framework using tools from functional data analysis (FDA), a rapidly growing area of statistics that addresses inference from datasets that sample ensembles of related functions. Our Bayesian FDA framework builds hierarchical models that describe light curve ensembles using multiple levels of randomness: upper levels describe the source population, and lower levels describe the observation process, including measurement errors and selection effects. Schematically, a particular object's light curve is modeled as the sum of a parameterized template component (modeling population-averaged behavior) and a peculiar component (modeling variability across the population), subsequently subjected to an observation model. A functional shrinkage adjustment to individual light curves emerges—an adaptive, functional generalization of the kind of adjustments made for Eddington or Malmquist bias in single-epoch photometric surveys. We are applying the framework to a variety of problems in synoptic time-domain survey astronomy, including optimal detection of weak sources in multi-epoch data, and improved estimation of Cepheid variable star luminosities from detailed demographic modeling of ensembles of Cepheid light curves.

  6. STUDIES IN ASTRONOMICAL TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. VI. BAYESIAN BLOCK REPRESENTATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it—an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks—that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piecewise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by Arias-Castro et al. In the spirit of Reproducible Research all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as supplementary material.

  7. STUDIES IN ASTRONOMICAL TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. VI. BAYESIAN BLOCK REPRESENTATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scargle, Jeffrey D. [Space Science and Astrobiology Division, MS 245-3, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035-1000 (United States); Norris, Jay P. [Physics Department, Boise State University, 2110 University Drive, Boise, ID 83725-1570 (United States); Jackson, Brad [The Center for Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Department of Mathematics, San Jose State University, One Washington Square, MH 308, San Jose, CA 95192-0103 (United States); Chiang, James, E-mail: jeffrey.d.scargle@nasa.gov [W. W. Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory, Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Department of Physics and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States)

    2013-02-20

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piecewise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by Arias-Castro et al. In the spirit of Reproducible Research all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as supplementary material.

  8. Dynamic sensor action selection with Bayesian decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristensen, Steen; Hansen, Volker; Kondak, Konstantin

    1998-10-01

    The aim of this work is to create a framework for the dynamic planning of sensor actions for an autonomous mobile robot. The framework uses Bayesian decision analysis, i.e., a decision-theoretic method, to evaluate possible sensor actions and selecting the most appropriate ones given the available sensors and what is currently known about the state of the world. Since sensing changes the knowledge of the system and since the current state of the robot (task, position, etc.) determines what knowledge is relevant, the evaluation and selection of sensing actions is an on-going process that effectively determines the behavior of the robot. The framework has been implemented on a real mobile robot and has been proven to be able to control in real-time the sensor actions of the system. In current work we are investigating methods to reduce or automatically generate the necessary model information needed by the decision- theoretic method to select the appropriate sensor actions.

  9. Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scargle, Jeffrey D.; Norris, Jay P.; Jackson, Brad; Chiang, James

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks [Scargle 1998]-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piece- wise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by [Arias-Castro, Donoho and Huo 2003]. In the spirit of Reproducible Research [Donoho et al. (2008)] all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as auxiliary material.

  10. Using Bayesian Population Viability Analysis to Define Relevant Conservation Objectives.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam W Green

    Full Text Available Adaptive management provides a useful framework for managing natural resources in the face of uncertainty. An important component of adaptive management is identifying clear, measurable conservation objectives that reflect the desired outcomes of stakeholders. A common objective is to have a sustainable population, or metapopulation, but it can be difficult to quantify a threshold above which such a population is likely to persist. We performed a Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis (BMPVA using a dynamic occupancy model to quantify the characteristics of two wood frog (Lithobates sylvatica metapopulations resulting in sustainable populations, and we demonstrate how the results could be used to define meaningful objectives that serve as the basis of adaptive management. We explored scenarios involving metapopulations with different numbers of patches (pools using estimates of breeding occurrence and successful metamorphosis from two study areas to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction and calculate the proportion of vernal pools producing metamorphs. Our results suggest that ≥50 pools are required to ensure long-term persistence with approximately 16% of pools producing metamorphs in stable metapopulations. We demonstrate one way to incorporate the BMPVA results into a utility function that balances the trade-offs between ecological and financial objectives, which can be used in an adaptive management framework to make optimal, transparent decisions. Our approach provides a framework for using a standard method (i.e., PVA and available information to inform a formal decision process to determine optimal and timely management policies.

  11. Using Bayesian Population Viability Analysis to Define Relevant Conservation Objectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Adam W; Bailey, Larissa L

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive management provides a useful framework for managing natural resources in the face of uncertainty. An important component of adaptive management is identifying clear, measurable conservation objectives that reflect the desired outcomes of stakeholders. A common objective is to have a sustainable population, or metapopulation, but it can be difficult to quantify a threshold above which such a population is likely to persist. We performed a Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis (BMPVA) using a dynamic occupancy model to quantify the characteristics of two wood frog (Lithobates sylvatica) metapopulations resulting in sustainable populations, and we demonstrate how the results could be used to define meaningful objectives that serve as the basis of adaptive management. We explored scenarios involving metapopulations with different numbers of patches (pools) using estimates of breeding occurrence and successful metamorphosis from two study areas to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction and calculate the proportion of vernal pools producing metamorphs. Our results suggest that ≥50 pools are required to ensure long-term persistence with approximately 16% of pools producing metamorphs in stable metapopulations. We demonstrate one way to incorporate the BMPVA results into a utility function that balances the trade-offs between ecological and financial objectives, which can be used in an adaptive management framework to make optimal, transparent decisions. Our approach provides a framework for using a standard method (i.e., PVA) and available information to inform a formal decision process to determine optimal and timely management policies. PMID:26658734

  12. Nonparametric survival analysis using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparapani, Rodney A; Logan, Brent R; McCulloch, Robert E; Laud, Purushottam W

    2016-07-20

    Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) provide a framework for flexible nonparametric modeling of relationships of covariates to outcomes. Recently, BART models have been shown to provide excellent predictive performance, for both continuous and binary outcomes, and exceeding that of its competitors. Software is also readily available for such outcomes. In this article, we introduce modeling that extends the usefulness of BART in medical applications by addressing needs arising in survival analysis. Simulation studies of one-sample and two-sample scenarios, in comparison with long-standing traditional methods, establish face validity of the new approach. We then demonstrate the model's ability to accommodate data from complex regression models with a simulation study of a nonproportional hazards scenario with crossing survival functions and survival function estimation in a scenario where hazards are multiplicatively modified by a highly nonlinear function of the covariates. Using data from a recently published study of patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, we illustrate the use and some advantages of the proposed method in medical investigations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26854022

  13. Review of bayesian statistical analysis methods for cytogenetic radiation biodosimetry, with a practical example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Classical methods of assessing the uncertainty associated with radiation doses estimated using cytogenetic techniques are now extremely well defined. However, several authors have suggested that a Bayesian approach to uncertainty estimation may be more suitable for cytogenetic data, which are inherently stochastic in nature. The Bayesian analysis framework focuses on identification of probability distributions (for yield of aberrations or estimated dose), which also means that uncertainty is an intrinsic part of the analysis, rather than an 'afterthought'. In this paper Bayesian, as well as some more advanced classical, data analysis methods for radiation cytogenetics are reviewed that have been proposed in the literature. A practical overview of Bayesian cytogenetic dose estimation is also presented, with worked examples from the literature. (authors)

  14. A PAC-Bayesian Analysis of Graph Clustering and Pairwise Clustering

    OpenAIRE

    Seldin, Yevgeny

    2010-01-01

    We formulate weighted graph clustering as a prediction problem: given a subset of edge weights we analyze the ability of graph clustering to predict the remaining edge weights. This formulation enables practical and theoretical comparison of different approaches to graph clustering as well as comparison of graph clustering with other possible ways to model the graph. We adapt the PAC-Bayesian analysis of co-clustering (Seldin and Tishby, 2008; Seldin, 2009) to derive a PAC-Bayesian generaliza...

  15. Uncertainty analysis using Beta-Bayesian approach in nuclear safety code validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • To meet the 95/95 criterion, the Wilks’ method is identical to the Bayesian approach. • A prior selection in Bayesian approach is of strong influenced on the code run times. • It is possible to utilize prior experience to reduce code runs to meet the 95/95 criterion. • The variation of the probability for each code runs is provided. - Abstract: Since best-estimate plus uncertainty analysis was approved by Nuclear Regulatory Commission for nuclear reactor safety evaluation, several uncertainty assessment methods have been proposed and applied in the framework of best-estimate code validation in nuclear industry. Among them, the Wilks’ method and Bayesian approach are the two most popular statistical methods for uncertainty quantification. This study explores the inherent relation between the two methods using the Beta distribution function as the prior in the Bayesian analysis. Subsequently, the Wilks’ method can be considered as a special case of Beta-Bayesian approach, equivalent to the conservative case with Wallis’ “pessimistic” prior in the Bayesian analysis. However, the results do depend on the choice of the pessimistic prior function forms. The analysis of mean and variance through Beta-Bayesian approach provides insight into the Wilks’ 95/95 results with different orders. It indicates that the 95/95 results of Wilks’ method become more accurate and more precise with the increasing of the order. Furthermore, Bayesian updating process is well demonstrated in the code validation practice. The selection of updating prior can make use of the current experience of the code failure and success statistics, so as to effectively predict further needed number of numerical simulations to reach the 95/95 criterion

  16. Theoretical Analysis of Bayesian Optimisation with Unknown Gaussian Process Hyper-Parameters

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Ziyu; De Freitas, Nando

    2014-01-01

    Bayesian optimisation has gained great popularity as a tool for optimising the parameters of machine learning algorithms and models. Somewhat ironically, setting up the hyper-parameters of Bayesian optimisation methods is notoriously hard. While reasonable practical solutions have been advanced, they can often fail to find the best optima. Surprisingly, there is little theoretical analysis of this crucial problem in the literature. To address this, we derive a cumulative regret bound for Baye...

  17. Bayesian forecasting and scalable multivariate volatility analysis using simultaneous graphical dynamic models

    OpenAIRE

    Gruber, Lutz F.; West, Mike

    2016-01-01

    The recently introduced class of simultaneous graphical dynamic linear models (SGDLMs) defines an ability to scale on-line Bayesian analysis and forecasting to higher-dimensional time series. This paper advances the methodology of SGDLMs, developing and embedding a novel, adaptive method of simultaneous predictor selection in forward filtering for on-line learning and forecasting. The advances include developments in Bayesian computation for scalability, and a case study in exploring the resu...

  18. Risks Analysis of Logistics Financial Business Based on Evidential Bayesian Network

    OpenAIRE

    Bin Suo; Ying Yan

    2013-01-01

    Risks in logistics financial business are identified and classified. Making the failure of the business as the root node, a Bayesian network is constructed to measure the risk levels in the business. Three importance indexes are calculated to find the most important risks in the business. And more, considering the epistemic uncertainties in the risks, evidence theory associate with Bayesian network is used as an evidential network in the risk analysis of logistics finance. To find how much un...

  19. Studies on void coalescence analysis of nanocrystalline cryorolled commercially pure aluminium formed under different stress conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cryorolling was performed on commercially pure aluminium sheet from an initial thickness of 7 mm to 0.25 mm with a total true strain of around 3.33. Cryorolling was performed in many passes with only 5% reduction in each pass to avoid adiabatic heating during rolling process. Detailed Transmission Electron Microscopic studies showed increased dislocation density and distributed dislocation cell structure. Streaks along with ring pattern in selected area electron diffraction of transmission electron microscopy evidenced the existence of texture component on the surface of rolled sheet along with nanocrystalline sub-structure. Studies on fracture behavior of the cryorolled sheets were performed using specimen of double edge-notch tensile geometry. Compared to the conventionally rolled sheet metal, the strain triaxiality ratio value in the case of cryorolled sheets is insensitive to the void growth analysis due to the presence of nano-sized grains. The ratio of length to the width of voids varies from 1.6 to 2.4 in the case of conventionally rolled sheet. In contrast, length to width ratio is very close to 1.0 in the case of cryorolled sheet. Thus no oblate or prolate voids were observed during cryorolling compared with conventionally rolled sheets and it is observed the formation of equiaxed nanostructured grains. In the case of cryorolled sheets, minimal variation in length to width ratio was observed with the variation in the shear strains, due to the presence of nanostructured grains. Whereas, in the case of conventionally rolled material, wide variation in the length to width ratio with the variations in the shear strains was observed.

  20. Bayesian Analysis of Multiple Populations in Galactic Globular Clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner-Kaiser, Rachel A.; Sarajedini, Ata; von Hippel, Ted; Stenning, David; Piotto, Giampaolo; Milone, Antonino; van Dyk, David A.; Robinson, Elliot; Stein, Nathan

    2016-01-01

    We use GO 13297 Cycle 21 Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations and archival GO 10775 Cycle 14 HST ACS Treasury observations of Galactic Globular Clusters to find and characterize multiple stellar populations. Determining how globular clusters are able to create and retain enriched material to produce several generations of stars is key to understanding how these objects formed and how they have affected the structural, kinematic, and chemical evolution of the Milky Way. We employ a sophisticated Bayesian technique with an adaptive MCMC algorithm to simultaneously fit the age, distance, absorption, and metallicity for each cluster. At the same time, we also fit unique helium values to two distinct populations of the cluster and determine the relative proportions of those populations. Our unique numerical approach allows objective and precise analysis of these complicated clusters, providing posterior distribution functions for each parameter of interest. We use these results to gain a better understanding of multiple populations in these clusters and their role in the history of the Milky Way.Support for this work was provided by NASA through grant numbers HST-GO-10775 and HST-GO-13297 from the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by AURA, Inc., under NASA contract NAS5-26555. This material is based upon work supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant NNX11AF34G issued through the Office of Space Science. This project was supported by the National Aeronautics & Space Administration through the University of Central Florida's NASA Florida Space Grant Consortium.

  1. Exploiting sensitivity analysis in Bayesian networks for consumer satisfaction study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jaronski, W.; Bloemer, J.M.M.; Vanhoof, K.; Wets, G.

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents an application of Bayesian network technology in a empirical customer satisfaction study. The findings of the study should provide insight as to the importance of product/service dimensions in terms of the strength of their influence on overall satisfaction. To this end we apply a

  2. RADYBAN: A tool for reliability analysis of dynamic fault trees through conversion into dynamic Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper, we present RADYBAN (Reliability Analysis with DYnamic BAyesian Networks), a software tool which allows to analyze a dynamic fault tree relying on its conversion into a dynamic Bayesian network. The tool implements a modular algorithm for automatically translating a dynamic fault tree into the corresponding dynamic Bayesian network and exploits classical algorithms for the inference on dynamic Bayesian networks, in order to compute reliability measures. After having described the basic features of the tool, we show how it operates on a real world example and we compare the unreliability results it generates with those returned by other methodologies, in order to verify the correctness and the consistency of the results obtained

  3. Complexity analysis of accelerated MCMC methods for Bayesian inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoang, Viet Ha; Schwab, Christoph; Stuart, Andrew M.

    2013-08-01

    The Bayesian approach to inverse problems, in which the posterior probability distribution on an unknown field is sampled for the purposes of computing posterior expectations of quantities of interest, is starting to become computationally feasible for partial differential equation (PDE) inverse problems. Balancing the sources of error arising from finite-dimensional approximation of the unknown field, the PDE forward solution map and the sampling of the probability space under the posterior distribution are essential for the design of efficient computational Bayesian methods for PDE inverse problems. We study Bayesian inversion for a model elliptic PDE with an unknown diffusion coefficient. We provide complexity analyses of several Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for the efficient numerical evaluation of expectations under the Bayesian posterior distribution, given data δ. Particular attention is given to bounds on the overall work required to achieve a prescribed error level ε. Specifically, we first bound the computational complexity of ‘plain’ MCMC, based on combining MCMC sampling with linear complexity multi-level solvers for elliptic PDE. Our (new) work versus accuracy bounds show that the complexity of this approach can be quite prohibitive. Two strategies for reducing the computational complexity are then proposed and analyzed: first, a sparse, parametric and deterministic generalized polynomial chaos (gpc) ‘surrogate’ representation of the forward response map of the PDE over the entire parameter space, and, second, a novel multi-level Markov chain Monte Carlo strategy which utilizes sampling from a multi-level discretization of the posterior and the forward PDE. For both of these strategies, we derive asymptotic bounds on work versus accuracy, and hence asymptotic bounds on the computational complexity of the algorithms. In particular, we provide sufficient conditions on the regularity of the unknown coefficients of the PDE and on the

  4. Use of SAMC for Bayesian analysis of statistical models with intractable normalizing constants

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Ick Hoon

    2014-03-01

    Statistical inference for the models with intractable normalizing constants has attracted much attention. During the past two decades, various approximation- or simulation-based methods have been proposed for the problem, such as the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method and the auxiliary variable Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm specifically addresses this problem: It works by sampling from a sequence of approximate distributions with their average converging to the target posterior distribution, where the approximate distributions can be achieved using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm. A strong law of large numbers is established for the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo estimator under mild conditions. Compared to the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method, the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm is more robust to the initial guess of model parameters. Compared to the auxiliary variable MCMC methods, the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm avoids the requirement for perfect samples, and thus can be applied to many models for which perfect sampling is not available or very expensive. The Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm also provides a general framework for approximate Bayesian analysis. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. A Dynamic Bayesian Approach to Computational Laban Shape Quality Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilip Swaminathan

    2009-01-01

    kinesiology. LMA (especially Effort/Shape emphasizes how internal feelings and intentions govern the patterning of movement throughout the whole body. As we argue, a complex understanding of intention via LMA is necessary for human-computer interaction to become embodied in ways that resemble interaction in the physical world. We thus introduce a novel, flexible Bayesian fusion approach for identifying LMA Shape qualities from raw motion capture data in real time. The method uses a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN to fuse movement features across the body and across time and as we discuss can be readily adapted for low-cost video. It has delivered excellent performance in preliminary studies comprising improvisatory movements. Our approach has been incorporated in Response, a mixed-reality environment where users interact via natural, full-body human movement and enhance their bodily-kinesthetic awareness through immersive sound and light feedback, with applications to kinesiology training, Parkinson's patient rehabilitation, interactive dance, and many other areas.

  6. A Bayesian Analysis of the Radioactive Releases of Fukushima

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tomioka, Ryota; Mørup, Morten

    2012-01-01

    types of nuclides and their levels of concentration from the recorded mixture of radiations to take necessary measures. We presently formulate a Bayesian generative model for the data available on radioactive releases from the Fukushima Daiichi disaster across Japan. From the sparsely sampled...... Fukushima Daiichi plant we establish that the model is able to account for the data. We further demonstrate how the model extends to include all the available measurements recorded throughout Japan. The model can be considered a first attempt to apply Bayesian learning unsupervised in order to give a more......The Fukushima Daiichi disaster 11 March, 2011 is considered the largest nuclear accident since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster and has been rated at level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale. As different radioactive materials have different effects to human body, it is important to know the...

  7. Bayesian Analysis of the Black-Scholes Option Price

    OpenAIRE

    Darsinos, Theofanis; Stephen E Satchell

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates the statistical properties of the Black-Scholes option price under a Bayesian approach. We incorporate randomness, both in the price process and in volatility, to derive the prior and posterior densities of a European call option. Expressions for the density of the option price conditional on the sample estimates of volatility and on the asset price respectively, are also derived. Numerical results are presented to compare how the dispersion of the option price changes...

  8. Bayesian analysis of recursive SVAR models with overidentifying restrictions

    OpenAIRE

    Kociecki, Andrzej; Rubaszek, Michał; Ca' Zorzi, Michele

    2012-01-01

    The paper provides a novel Bayesian methodological framework to estimate structural VAR (SVAR) models with recursive identification schemes that allows for the inclusion of over-identifying restrictions. The proposed framework enables the researcher to (i) elicit the prior on the non-zero contemporaneous relations between economic variables and to (ii) derive an analytical expression for the posterior distribution and marginal data density. We illustrate our methodological framework by estima...

  9. SPAM FILTERING FOR OPTIMIZATION IN INTERNET PROMOTIONS USING BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

    OpenAIRE

    Ion SMEUREANU; Madalina ZURINI

    2010-01-01

    The main characteristics of an e-business and its promoting are presented. It contains ways of promoting an e-business, examined in depth the e-mail marketing principle along with advantages and disadvantages of the implementation. E-mail marketing metrics are defined for analyzing the impact on customers. A model for optimization the promoting process via email is created for reaching the threshold of profitability for electronic business. The model implements Bayesian spam filtering and app...

  10. Bayesian analysis of the Hector’s Dolphin data

    OpenAIRE

    King, R; Brooks, S.P.

    2004-01-01

    In recent years there have been increasing concerns for many wildlife populations, due to decreasing population trends. This has led to the introduction of management schemes to increase the survival rates and hence the population size of many species of animals. We concentrate on a particular dolphin population situated off the coast of New Zealand, and investigate whether the introduction of a fishing gill net ban was effective in decreasing dolphin mortality. We undertake a Bayesian analys...

  11. A genetic and spatial Bayesian analysis of mastitis resistance

    OpenAIRE

    Frigessi Arnoldo; Sæbø Solve

    2004-01-01

    Abstract A nationwide health card recording system for dairy cattle was introduced in Norway in 1975 (the Norwegian Cattle Health Services). The data base holds information on mastitis occurrences on an individual cow basis. A reduction in mastitis frequency across the population is desired, and for this purpose risk factors are investigated. In this paper a Bayesian proportional hazards model is used for modelling the time to first veterinary treatment of clinical mastitis, including both ge...

  12. A genetic and spatial Bayesian analysis of mastitis resistance

    OpenAIRE

    Sæbø, Solve; Frigessi, Arnoldo

    2004-01-01

    A nationwide health card recording system for dairy cattle was introduced in Norway in 1975 (the Norwegian Cattle Health Services). The data base holds information on mastitis occurrences on an individual cow basis. A reduction in mastitis frequency across the population is desired, and for this purpose risk factors are investigated. In this paper a Bayesian proportional hazards model is used for modelling the time to first veterinary treatment of clinical mastitis, including both genetic and...

  13. Bayesian network models in brain functional connectivity analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ide, Jaime S.; Zhang, Sheng; Chiang-shan R. Li

    2013-01-01

    Much effort has been made to better understand the complex integration of distinct parts of the human brain using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Altered functional connectivity between brain regions is associated with many neurological and mental illnesses, such as Alzheimer and Parkinson diseases, addiction, and depression. In computational science, Bayesian networks (BN) have been used in a broad range of studies to model complex data set in the presence of uncertainty and wh...

  14. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of somatic mutation data in cancer

    OpenAIRE

    Ding, Jie; Trippa, Lorenzo; Zhong, Xiaogang; Parmigiani, Giovanni

    2013-01-01

    Identifying genes underlying cancer development is critical to cancer biology and has important implications across prevention, diagnosis and treatment. Cancer sequencing studies aim at discovering genes with high frequencies of somatic mutations in specific types of cancer, as these genes are potential driving factors (drivers) for cancer development. We introduce a hierarchical Bayesian methodology to estimate gene-specific mutation rates and driver probabilities from somatic mutation data ...

  15. Regional fertility data analysis: A small area Bayesian approach

    OpenAIRE

    Eduardo A. Castro; Zhen Zhang; Arnab Bhattacharjee; Martins, José M.; Taps Maiti

    2013-01-01

    Accurate estimation of demographic variables such as mortality, fertility and migrations, by age groups and regions, is important for analyses and policy. However, traditional estimates based on within cohort counts are often inaccurate, particularly when the sub-populations considered are small. We use small area Bayesian statistics to develop a model for age-specific fertility rates. In turn, such small area estimation requires accurate descriptions of spatial and cross-section dependence. ...

  16. Bayesian analysis of hierarchical multi-fidelity codes

    CERN Document Server

    Gratiet, Loic Le

    2011-01-01

    This paper deals with the Gaussian process based approximation of a code which can be run at different levels of accuracy. This co-kriging method allows us to improve a surrogate model of a complex computer code using fast approximations of it. In particular, we focus on the case of a large number of code levels on the one hand and on a Bayesian approach when we have 2 levels on the other hand. Moreover, based on a Bayes linear formulation, an extension of the universal kriging equations are provided for the co-kriging model. We also address the problem of nested space-filling design for multi-fidelity computer experiments and we provide a significant simplification of the computation of the co-kriging cross-validation equations. A hydrodynamic simulator example is used to illustrate the comparison Bayesian versus non-Bayesian co-kriging. A thermodynamic example is used to illustrate the comparison between 2-level and 3-level co-kriging.

  17. A Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, Robert M.; Rodriguez, Daniel Taylor

    2012-01-01

    1. A Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data containing covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities is usually completed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in conjunction with software programs that can implement those methods for any statistical model, not just site-occupancy models. Although these software programs are quite flexible, considerable experience is often required to specify a model and to initialize the Markov chain so that summaries of the posterior distribution can be estimated efficiently and accurately. 2. As an alternative to these programs, we develop a Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of site-occupancy data that include covariates of species occurrence and species detection probabilities. This Gibbs sampler is based on a class of site-occupancy models in which probabilities of species occurrence and detection are specified as probit-regression functions of site- and survey-specific covariate measurements. 3. To illustrate the Gibbs sampler, we analyse site-occupancy data of the blue hawker, Aeshna cyanea (Odonata, Aeshnidae), a common dragonfly species in Switzerland. Our analysis includes a comparison of results based on Bayesian and classical (non-Bayesian) methods of inference. We also provide code (based on the R software program) for conducting Bayesian and classical analyses of site-occupancy data.

  18. Spatial Dependence and Heterogeneity in Bayesian Factor Analysis : A Cross-National Investigation of Schwartz Values

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stakhovych, Stanislav; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.; Wedel, Michel

    2012-01-01

    In this article, we present a Bayesian spatial factor analysis model. We extend previous work on confirmatory factor analysis by including geographically distributed latent variables and accounting for heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. The simulation study shows excellent recovery of the mo

  19. PAC-Bayesian Analysis of the Exploration-Exploitation Trade-off

    CERN Document Server

    Seldin, Yevgeny; Laviolette, François; Auer, Peter; Shawe-Taylor, John; Peters, Jan

    2011-01-01

    We develop a coherent framework for integrative simultaneous analysis of the exploration-exploitation and model order selection trade-offs. We improve over our preceding results on the same subject (Seldin et al., 2011) by combining PAC-Bayesian analysis with Bernstein-type inequality for martingales. Such a combination is also of independent interest for studies of multiple simultaneously evolving martingales.

  20. Spatial Dependence and Heterogeneity in Bayesian Factor Analysis: A Cross-National Investigation of Schwartz Values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stakhovych, Stanislav; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.; Wedel, Michel

    2012-01-01

    In this article, we present a Bayesian spatial factor analysis model. We extend previous work on confirmatory factor analysis by including geographically distributed latent variables and accounting for heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. The simulation study shows excellent recovery of the model parameters and demonstrates the consequences…

  1. Pooled Bayesian meta-analysis of two Polish studies on radiation-induced cancers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The robust Bayesian regression method was applied to perform meta-analysis of two independent studies on influence of low ionising radiation doses on the occurrence of fatal cancers. The re-analysed data come from occupational exposure analysis of nuclear workers in Swierk (Poland) and from ecological study of cancer risk from natural background radiation in Poland. Such two different types of data were analysed, and three popular models were tested: constant, linear and quadratic dose-response dependencies. The Bayesian model selection algorithm was used for all models. The Bayesian statistics clearly indicates that the popular linear no-threshold (LNT) assumption is not valid for presented cancer risks in the range of low doses of ionising radiation. The subject of LNT hypothesis use in radiation risk prediction and assessment is also discussed. (authors)

  2. Type Ia Supernova Light Curve Inference: Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis in the Near Infrared

    CERN Document Server

    Mandel, Kaisey S; Friedman, Andrew S; Kirshner, Robert P

    2009-01-01

    We present a comprehensive statistical analysis of the properties of Type Ia SN light curves in the near infrared using recent data from PAIRITEL and the literature. We construct a hierarchical Bayesian framework, incorporating several uncertainties including photometric error, peculiar velocities, dust extinction and intrinsic variations, for coherent statistical inference. SN Ia light curve inferences are drawn from the global posterior probability of parameters describing both individual supernovae and the population conditioned on the entire SN Ia NIR dataset. The logical structure of the hierarchical Bayesian model is represented by a directed acyclic graph. Fully Bayesian analysis of the model and data is enabled by an efficient MCMC algorithm exploiting the conditional structure using Gibbs sampling. We apply this framework to the JHK_s SN Ia light curve data. A new light curve model captures the observed J-band light curve shape variations. The intrinsic variances in peak absolute magnitudes are: sigm...

  3. A Bayesian analysis of extrasolar planet data for HD 208487

    OpenAIRE

    Gregory, P. C.

    2005-01-01

    Precision radial velocity data for HD 208487 has been re-analyzed using a new Bayesian multi-planet Kepler periodogram. The periodgram employs a parallel tempering Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm with a novel statistical control system. We confirm the previously reported orbit (Tinney et al. 2005) of 130 days. In addition, we conclude there is strong evidence for a second planet with a period of 998 -62 +57 days, an eccentricity of 0.19 -0.18 +0.05, and an M sin i = 0.46 -0.13 +0.05 of Jup...

  4. Bayesian Analysis of Demand Elasticity in the Italian Electricity Market

    OpenAIRE

    Maria Chiara D'Errico; Carlo Andrea Bollino

    2015-01-01

    The liberalization of the Italian electricity market is a decade old. Within these last ten years, the supply side has been extensively analyzed, but not the demand side. The aim of this paper is to provide a new method for estimation of the demand elasticity, based on Bayesian methods applied to the Italian electricity market. We used individual demand bids data in the day-ahead market in the Italian Power Exchange (IPEX), for 2011, in order to construct an aggregate demand function at the h...

  5. Risk Analysis of New Product Development Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MohammadRahim Ramezanian

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The process of presenting new product development (NPD to market is of great importance due to variability of competitive rules in the business world. The product development teams face a lot of pressures due to rapid growth of technology, increased risk-taking of world markets and increasing variations in the customers` needs. However, the process of NPD is always associated with high uncertainties and complexities. To be successful in completing NPD project, existing risks should be identified and assessed. On the other hand, the Bayesian networks as a strong approach of decision making modeling of uncertain situations has attracted many researchers in various areas. These networks provide a decision supporting system for problems with uncertainties or probable reasoning. In this paper, the available risk factors in product development have been first identified in an electric company and then, the Bayesian network has been utilized and their interrelationships have been modeled to evaluate the available risk in the process. To determine the primary and conditional probabilities of the nodes, the viewpoints of experts in this area have been applied. The available risks in this process have been divided to High (H, Medium (M and Low (L groups and analyzed by the Agena Risk software. The findings derived from software output indicate that the production of the desired product has relatively high risk. In addition, Predictive support and Diagnostic support have been performed on the model with two different scenarios..

  6. Bayesian Analysis of Demand Elasticity in the Italian Electricity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Chiara D'Errico

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The liberalization of the Italian electricity market is a decade old. Within these last ten years, the supply side has been extensively analyzed, but not the demand side. The aim of this paper is to provide a new method for estimation of the demand elasticity, based on Bayesian methods applied to the Italian electricity market. We used individual demand bids data in the day-ahead market in the Italian Power Exchange (IPEX, for 2011, in order to construct an aggregate demand function at the hourly level. We took into account the existence of both elastic and inelastic bidders on the demand side. The empirical results show that elasticity varies significantly during the day and across periods of the year. In addition, the elasticity hourly distribution is clearly skewed and more so in the daily hours. The Bayesian method is a useful tool for policy-making, insofar as the regulator can start with a priori historical information on market behavior and estimate actual market outcomes in response to new policy actions.

  7. Exclusive breastfeeding practice in Nigeria: a bayesian stepwise regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayawan, Ezra; Adebayo, Samson B; Chitekwe, Stanley

    2014-11-01

    Despite the importance of breast milk, the prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) in Nigeria is far lower than what has been recommended for developing countries. Worse still, the practise has been on downward trend in the country recently. This study was aimed at investigating the determinants and geographical variations of EBF in Nigeria. Any intervention programme would require a good knowledge of factors that enhance the practise. A pooled data set from Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 1999, 2003, and 2008 were analyzed using a Bayesian stepwise approach that involves simultaneous selection of variables and smoothing parameters. Further, the approach allows for geographical variations at a highly disaggregated level of states to be investigated. Within a Bayesian context, appropriate priors are assigned on all the parameters and functions. Findings reveal that education of women and their partners, place of delivery, mother's age at birth, and current age of child are associated with increasing prevalence of EBF. However, visits for antenatal care during pregnancy are not associated with EBF in Nigeria. Further, results reveal considerable geographical variations in the practise of EBF. The likelihood of exclusively breastfeeding children are significantly higher in Kwara, Kogi, Osun, and Oyo states but lower in Jigawa, Katsina, and Yobe. Intensive interventions that can lead to improved practise are required in all states in Nigeria. The importance of breastfeeding needs to be emphasized to women during antenatal visits as this can encourage and enhance the practise after delivery. PMID:24619227

  8. Bayesian analysis of deterministic and stochastic prisoner's dilemma games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Howard Kunreuther

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares the behavior of individuals playing a classic two-person deterministic prisoner's dilemma (PD game with choice data obtained from repeated interdependent security prisoner's dilemma games with varying probabilities of loss and the ability to learn (or not learn about the actions of one's counterpart, an area of recent interest in experimental economics. This novel data set, from a series of controlled laboratory experiments, is analyzed using Bayesian hierarchical methods, the first application of such methods in this research domain. We find that individuals are much more likely to be cooperative when payoffs are deterministic than when the outcomes are probabilistic. A key factor explaining this difference is that subjects in a stochastic PD game respond not just to what their counterparts did but also to whether or not they suffered a loss. These findings are interpreted in the context of behavioral theories of commitment, altruism and reciprocity. The work provides a linkage between Bayesian statistics, experimental economics, and consumer psychology.

  9. Risk Analysis of New Product Development Using Bayesian Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Rahim Ramezanian

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The process of presenting new product development (NPD to market is of great importance due to variability of competitive rules in the business world. The product development teams face a lot of pressures due to rapid growth of technology, increased risk-taking of world markets and increasing variations in the customers` needs. However, the process of NPD is always associated with high uncertainties and complexities. To be successful in completing NPD project, existing risks should be identified and assessed. On the other hand, the Bayesian networks as a strong approach of decision making modeling of uncertain situations has attracted many researchers in various areas. These networks provide a decision supporting system for problems with uncertainties or probable reasoning. In this paper, the available risk factors in product development have been first identified in an electric company and then, the Bayesian network has been utilized and their interrelationships have been modeled to evaluate the available risk in the process. To determine the primary and conditional probabilities of the nodes, the viewpoints of experts in this area have been applied. The available risks in this process have been divided to High (H, Medium (M and Low (L groups and analyzed by the Agena Risk software. The findings derived from software output indicate that the production of the desired product has relatively high risk. In addition, Predictive support and Diagnostic support have been performed on the model with two different scenarios.

  10. Non-coalescence of sessile drops from different but miscible liquids: Hydrodynamic analysis of the twin drop contour as self stabilizing, traveling wave

    CERN Document Server

    Karpitschka, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    Capillarity always favors drop fusion. Nevertheless sessile drops from different but completely miscible liquids often do not fuse instantaneously upon contact. Rather, intermediate non-coalescence is observed. Two separate drop bodies, connected by a thin liquid neck move over the substrate. Supported by new experimental data a thin film hydrodynamic analysis of this state is presented. Presumably advective and diffusive volume fluxes in the neck region establish a localized and temporarily stable surface tension gradient. This induces a local surface (Marangoni) flow that stabilizes a traveling wave i.e., the observed moving twin drop configuration. The theoretical predictions are in excellent agreement with the experimental findings.

  11. Fast "coalescent" simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wall Jeff D

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The amount of genome-wide molecular data is increasing rapidly, as is interest in developing methods appropriate for such data. There is a consequent increasing need for methods that are able to efficiently simulate such data. In this paper we implement the sequentially Markovian coalescent algorithm described by McVean and Cardin and present a further modification to that algorithm which slightly improves the closeness of the approximation to the full coalescent model. The algorithm ignores a class of recombination events known to affect the behavior of the genealogy of the sample, but which do not appear to affect the behavior of generated samples to any substantial degree. Results We show that our software is able to simulate large chromosomal regions, such as those appropriate in a consideration of genome-wide data, in a way that is several orders of magnitude faster than existing coalescent algorithms. Conclusion This algorithm provides a useful resource for those needing to simulate large quantities of data for chromosomal-length regions using an approach that is much more efficient than traditional coalescent models.

  12. Learning Bayesian networks from big meteorological spatial datasets. An alternative to complex network analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez, Jose Manuel; San Martín, Daniel; Herrera, Sixto; Santiago Cofiño, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The growing availability of spatial datasets (observations, reanalysis, and regional and global climate models) demands efficient multivariate spatial modeling techniques for many problems of interest (e.g. teleconnection analysis, multi-site downscaling, etc.). Complex networks have been recently applied in this context using graphs built from pairwise correlations between the different stations (or grid boxes) forming the dataset. However, this analysis does not take into account the full dependence structure underlying the data, gien by all possible marginal and conditional dependencies among the stations, and does not allow a probabilistic analysis of the dataset. In this talk we introduce Bayesian networks as an alternative multivariate analysis and modeling data-driven technique which allows building a joint probability distribution of the stations including all relevant dependencies in the dataset. Bayesian networks is a sound machine learning technique using a graph to 1) encode the main dependencies among the variables and 2) to obtain a factorization of the joint probability distribution of the stations given by a reduced number of parameters. For a particular problem, the resulting graph provides a qualitative analysis of the spatial relationships in the dataset (alternative to complex network analysis), and the resulting model allows for a probabilistic analysis of the dataset. Bayesian networks have been widely applied in many fields, but their use in climate problems is hampered by the large number of variables (stations) involved in this field, since the complexity of the existing algorithms to learn from data the graphical structure grows nonlinearly with the number of variables. In this contribution we present a modified local learning algorithm for Bayesian networks adapted to this problem, which allows inferring the graphical structure for thousands of stations (from observations) and/or gridboxes (from model simulations) thus providing new

  13. A Bayesian Surrogate Model for Rapid Time Series Analysis and Application to Exoplanet Observations

    CERN Document Server

    Ford, Eric B; Veras, Dimitri

    2011-01-01

    We present a Bayesian surrogate model for the analysis of periodic or quasi-periodic time series data. We describe a computationally efficient implementation that enables Bayesian model comparison. We apply this model to simulated and real exoplanet observations. We discuss the results and demonstrate some of the challenges for applying our surrogate model to realistic exoplanet data sets. In particular, we find that analyses of real world data should pay careful attention to the effects of uneven spacing of observations and the choice of prior for the "jitter" parameter.

  14. Application of Bayesian networks for risk analysis of MV air insulated switch operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Electricity distribution companies regard risk-based approaches as a good philosophy to address their asset management challenges, and there is an increasing trend on developing methods to support decisions where different aspects of risks are taken into consideration. This paper describes a methodology for application of Bayesian networks for risk analysis in electricity distribution system maintenance management. The methodology is used on a case analysing safety risk related to operation of MV air insulated switches. The paper summarises some challenges and benefits of using Bayesian networks as a part of distribution system maintenance management.

  15. Bayesian Factor Analysis as a Variable-Selection Problem: Alternative Priors and Consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Zhao-Hua; Chow, Sy-Miin; Loken, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Factor analysis is a popular statistical technique for multivariate data analysis. Developments in the structural equation modeling framework have enabled the use of hybrid confirmatory/exploratory approaches in which factor-loading structures can be explored relatively flexibly within a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) framework. Recently, Muthén & Asparouhov proposed a Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) approach to explore the presence of cross loadings in CFA models. We show that the issue of determining factor-loading patterns may be formulated as a Bayesian variable selection problem in which Muthén and Asparouhov's approach can be regarded as a BSEM approach with ridge regression prior (BSEM-RP). We propose another Bayesian approach, denoted herein as the Bayesian structural equation modeling with spike-and-slab prior (BSEM-SSP), which serves as a one-stage alternative to the BSEM-RP. We review the theoretical advantages and disadvantages of both approaches and compare their empirical performance relative to two modification indices-based approaches and exploratory factor analysis with target rotation. A teacher stress scale data set is used to demonstrate our approach. PMID:27314566

  16. Family Background Variables as Instruments for Education in Income Regressions: A Bayesian Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogerheide, Lennart; Block, Joern H.; Thurik, Roy

    2012-01-01

    The validity of family background variables instrumenting education in income regressions has been much criticized. In this paper, we use data from the 2004 German Socio-Economic Panel and Bayesian analysis to analyze to what degree violations of the strict validity assumption affect the estimation results. We show that, in case of moderate direct…

  17. Calibration of Uncertainty Analysis of the SWAT Model Using Genetic Algorithms and Bayesian Model Averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this paper, the Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) were combined to simultaneously conduct calibration and uncertainty analysis for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this hybrid method, several SWAT models with different structures are first selected; next GA i...

  18. A Bayesian multidimensional scaling procedure for the spatial analysis of revealed choice data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    DeSarbo, WS; Kim, Y; Fong, D

    1999-01-01

    We present a new Bayesian formulation of a vector multidimensional scaling procedure for the spatial analysis of binary choice data. The Gibbs sampler is gainfully employed to estimate the posterior distribution of the specified scalar products, bilinear model parameters. The computational procedure

  19. Variational Bayesian Causal Connectivity Analysis for fMRI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin eLuessi

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The ability to accurately estimate effective connectivity among brain regions from neuroimaging data could help answering many open questions in neuroscience. We propose a method which uses causality to obtain a measure of effective connectivity from fMRI data. The method uses a vector autoregressive model for the latent variables describing neuronal activity in combination with a linear observation model based on a convolution with a hemodynamic response function. Due to the employed modeling, it is possible to efficiently estimate all latent variables of the model using a variational Bayesian inference algorithm. The computational efficiency of the method enables us to apply it to large scale problems with high sampling rates and several hundred regions of interest. We use a comprehensive empirical evaluation with synthetic and real fMRI data to evaluate the performance of our method under various conditions.

  20. Unsupervised Transient Light Curve Analysis Via Hierarchical Bayesian Inference

    CERN Document Server

    Sanders, Nathan; Soderberg, Alicia

    2014-01-01

    Historically, light curve studies of supernovae (SNe) and other transient classes have focused on individual objects with copious and high signal-to-noise observations. In the nascent era of wide field transient searches, objects with detailed observations are decreasing as a fraction of the overall known SN population, and this strategy sacrifices the majority of the information contained in the data about the underlying population of transients. A population level modeling approach, simultaneously fitting all available observations of objects in a transient sub-class of interest, fully mines the data to infer the properties of the population and avoids certain systematic biases. We present a novel hierarchical Bayesian statistical model for population level modeling of transient light curves, and discuss its implementation using an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. As a test case, we apply this model to the Type IIP SN sample from the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey, consisting of 18,837 photometr...

  1. Bayesian Analysis of Multiple Populations I: Statistical and Computational Methods

    CERN Document Server

    Stenning, D C; Robinson, E; van Dyk, D A; von Hippel, T; Sarajedini, A; Stein, N

    2016-01-01

    We develop a Bayesian model for globular clusters composed of multiple stellar populations, extending earlier statistical models for open clusters composed of simple (single) stellar populations (vanDyk et al. 2009, Stein et al. 2013). Specifically, we model globular clusters with two populations that differ in helium abundance. Our model assumes a hierarchical structuring of the parameters in which physical properties---age, metallicity, helium abundance, distance, absorption, and initial mass---are common to (i) the cluster as a whole or to (ii) individual populations within a cluster, or are unique to (iii) individual stars. An adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is devised for model fitting that greatly improves convergence relative to its precursor non-adaptive MCMC algorithm. Our model and computational tools are incorporated into an open-source software suite known as BASE-9. We use numerical studies to demonstrate that our method can recover parameters of two-population clusters, and al...

  2. A Software Risk Analysis Model Using Bayesian Belief Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong Hu; Juhua Chen; Mei Liu; Yang Yun; Junbiao Tang

    2006-01-01

    The uncertainty during the period of software project development often brings huge risks to contractors and clients. Ifwe can find an effective method to predict the cost and quality of software projects based on facts like the project character and two-side cooperating capability at the beginning of the project, we can reduce the risk.Bayesian Belief Network(BBN) is a good tool for analyzing uncertain consequences, but it is difficult to produce precise network structure and conditional probability table. In this paper, we built up network structure by Delphi method for conditional probability table learning, and learn update probability table and nodes' confidence levels continuously according to the application cases, which made the evaluation network have learning abilities, and evaluate the software development risk of organization more accurately. This paper also introduces EM algorithm, which will enhance the ability to produce hidden nodes caused by variant software projects.

  3. Bayesian analysis of repairable systems showing a bounded failure intensity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The failure pattern of repairable mechanical equipment subject to deterioration phenomena sometimes shows a finite bound for the increasing failure intensity. A non-homogeneous Poisson process with bounded increasing failure intensity is then illustrated and its characteristics are discussed. A Bayesian procedure, based on prior information on model-free quantities, is developed in order to allow technical information on the failure process to be incorporated into the inferential procedure and to improve the inference accuracy. Posterior estimation of the model-free quantities and of other quantities of interest (such as the optimal replacement interval) is provided, as well as prediction on the waiting time to the next failure and on the number of failures in a future time interval is given. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the proposed inferential procedure

  4. Direct message passing for hybrid Bayesian networks and performance analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wei; Chang, K. C.

    2010-04-01

    Probabilistic inference for hybrid Bayesian networks, which involves both discrete and continuous variables, has been an important research topic over the recent years. This is not only because a number of efficient inference algorithms have been developed and used maturely for simple types of networks such as pure discrete model, but also for the practical needs that continuous variables are inevitable in modeling complex systems. Pearl's message passing algorithm provides a simple framework to compute posterior distribution by propagating messages between nodes and can provides exact answer for polytree models with pure discrete or continuous variables. In addition, applying Pearl's message passing to network with loops usually converges and results in good approximation. However, for hybrid model, there is a need of a general message passing algorithm between different types of variables. In this paper, we develop a method called Direct Message Passing (DMP) for exchanging messages between discrete and continuous variables. Based on Pearl's algorithm, we derive formulae to compute messages for variables in various dependence relationships encoded in conditional probability distributions. Mixture of Gaussian is used to represent continuous messages, with the number of mixture components up to the size of the joint state space of all discrete parents. For polytree Conditional Linear Gaussian (CLG) Bayesian network, DMP has the same computational requirements and can provide exact solution as the one obtained by the Junction Tree (JT) algorithm. However, while JT can only work for the CLG model, DMP can be applied for general nonlinear, non-Gaussian hybrid model to produce approximate solution using unscented transformation and loopy propagation. Furthermore, we can scale the algorithm by restricting the number of mixture components in the messages. Empirically, we found that the approximation errors are relatively small especially for nodes that are far away from

  5. A fully Bayesian before-after analysis of permeable friction course (PFC) pavement wet weather safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buddhavarapu, Prasad; Smit, Andre F; Prozzi, Jorge A

    2015-07-01

    Permeable friction course (PFC), a porous hot-mix asphalt, is typically applied to improve wet weather safety on high-speed roadways in Texas. In order to warrant expensive PFC construction, a statistical evaluation of its safety benefits is essential. Generally, the literature on the effectiveness of porous mixes in reducing wet-weather crashes is limited and often inconclusive. In this study, the safety effectiveness of PFC was evaluated using a fully Bayesian before-after safety analysis. First, two groups of road segments overlaid with PFC and non-PFC material were identified across Texas; the non-PFC or reference road segments selected were similar to their PFC counterparts in terms of site specific features. Second, a negative binomial data generating process was assumed to model the underlying distribution of crash counts of PFC and reference road segments to perform Bayesian inference on the safety effectiveness. A data-augmentation based computationally efficient algorithm was employed for a fully Bayesian estimation. The statistical analysis shows that PFC is not effective in reducing wet weather crashes. It should be noted that the findings of this study are in agreement with the existing literature, although these studies were not based on a fully Bayesian statistical analysis. Our study suggests that the safety effectiveness of PFC road surfaces, or any other safety infrastructure, largely relies on its interrelationship with the road user. The results suggest that the safety infrastructure must be properly used to reap the benefits of the substantial investments. PMID:25897515

  6. A Pragmatic Bayesian Perspective on Correlation Analysis - The exoplanetary gravity - stellar activity case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueira, P.; Faria, J. P.; Adibekyan, V. Zh.; Oshagh, M.; Santos, N. C.

    2016-05-01

    We apply the Bayesian framework to assess the presence of a correlation between two quantities. To do so, we estimate the probability distribution of the parameter of interest, ρ, characterizing the strength of the correlation. We provide an implementation of these ideas and concepts using python programming language and the pyMC module in a very short (˜ 130 lines of code, heavily commented) and user-friendly program. We used this tool to assess the presence and properties of the correlation between planetary surface gravity and stellar activity level as measured by the log( R^' }_{{HK}}) indicator. The results of the Bayesian analysis are qualitatively similar to those obtained via p-value analysis, and support the presence of a correlation in the data. The results are more robust in their derivation and more informative, revealing interesting features such as asymmetric posterior distributions or markedly different credible intervals, and allowing for a deeper exploration. We encourage the reader interested in this kind of problem to apply our code to his/her own scientific problems. The full understanding of what the Bayesian framework is can only be gained through the insight that comes by handling priors, assessing the convergence of Monte Carlo runs, and a multitude of other practical problems. We hope to contribute so that Bayesian analysis becomes a tool in the toolkit of researchers, and they understand by experience its advantages and limitations.

  7. Cavity coalescence in superplastic deformation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stowell, M.J.; Livesey, D.W.; Ridley, N.

    1984-01-01

    An analysis of the probability distribution function of particles randomly dispersed in a solid has been applied to cavitation during superplastic deformation and a method of predicting cavity coalescence developed. Cavity size distribution data were obtained from two microduplex nickel-silver alloys deformed superplastically to various extents at elevated temperature, and compared to theoretical predictions. Excellent agreement occurred for small void sizes but the model underestimated the number of voids in the largest size groups. It is argued that the discrepancy results from a combination of effects due to non-random cavity distributions and to enhanced growth rates and incomplete spheroidization of the largest cavities.

  8. ULTRAMASSIVE BLACK HOLE COALESCENCE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Although supermassive black holes (SMBHs) correlate well with their host galaxies, there is an emerging view that outliers exist. Henize 2-10, NGC 4889, and NGC 1277 are examples of SMBHs at least an order of magnitude more massive than their host galaxy suggests. The dynamical effects of such ultramassive central black holes is unclear. Here, we perform direct N-body simulations of mergers of galactic nuclei where one black hole is ultramassive to study the evolution of the remnant and the black hole dynamics in this extreme regime. We find that the merger remnant is axisymmetric near the center, while near the large SMBH influence radius, the galaxy is triaxial. The SMBH separation shrinks rapidly due to dynamical friction, and quickly forms a binary black hole; if we scale our model to the most massive estimate for the NGC 1277 black hole, for example, the timescale for the SMBH separation to shrink from nearly a kiloparsec to less than a parsec is roughly 10 Myr. By the time the SMBHs form a hard binary, gravitational wave emission dominates, and the black holes coalesce in a mere few Myr. Curiously, these extremely massive binaries appear to nearly bypass the three-body scattering evolutionary phase. Our study suggests that in this extreme case, SMBH coalescence is governed by dynamical friction followed nearly directly by gravitational wave emission, resulting in a rapid and efficient SMBH coalescence timescale. We discuss the implications for gravitational wave event rates and hypervelocity star production

  9. Bayesian Analysis of Cosmic Ray Propagation: Evidence against Homogeneous Diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jóhannesson, G.; Ruiz de Austri, R.; Vincent, A. C.; Moskalenko, I. V.; Orlando, E.; Porter, T. A.; Strong, A. W.; Trotta, R.; Feroz, F.; Graff, P.; Hobson, M. P.

    2016-06-01

    We present the results of the most complete scan of the parameter space for cosmic ray (CR) injection and propagation. We perform a Bayesian search of the main GALPROP parameters, using the MultiNest nested sampling algorithm, augmented by the BAMBI neural network machine-learning package. This is the first study to separate out low-mass isotopes (p, \\bar{p}, and He) from the usual light elements (Be, B, C, N, and O). We find that the propagation parameters that best-fit p,\\bar{p}, and He data are significantly different from those that fit light elements, including the B/C and 10Be/9Be secondary-to-primary ratios normally used to calibrate propagation parameters. This suggests that each set of species is probing a very different interstellar medium, and that the standard approach of calibrating propagation parameters using B/C can lead to incorrect results. We present posterior distributions and best-fit parameters for propagation of both sets of nuclei, as well as for the injection abundances of elements from H to Si. The input GALDEF files with these new parameters will be included in an upcoming public GALPROP update.

  10. OVERALL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS UTILIZING BAYESIAN NETWORK FOR THE QUESTIONNAIRE INVESTIGATION ON SNS

    OpenAIRE

    Tsuyoshi Aburai; Kazuhiro Takeyasu

    2013-01-01

    Social Networking Service (SNS) is prevailing rapidly in Japan in recent years. The most popular ones are Facebook, mixi, and Twitter, which are utilized in various fields of life together with the convenient tool such as smart-phone. In this work, a questionnaire investigation is carried out in order to clarify the current usage condition, issues and desired functions. More than 1,000 samples are gathered. Bayesian network is utilized for this analysis. Sensitivity analysis is carried out by...

  11. Predicting the effect of missense mutations on protein function: analysis with Bayesian networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Care Matthew A

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A number of methods that use both protein structural and evolutionary information are available to predict the functional consequences of missense mutations. However, many of these methods break down if either one of the two types of data are missing. Furthermore, there is a lack of rigorous assessment of how important the different factors are to prediction. Results Here we use Bayesian networks to predict whether or not a missense mutation will affect the function of the protein. Bayesian networks provide a concise representation for inferring models from data, and are known to generalise well to new data. More importantly, they can handle the noisy, incomplete and uncertain nature of biological data. Our Bayesian network achieved comparable performance with previous machine learning methods. The predictive performance of learned model structures was no better than a naïve Bayes classifier. However, analysis of the posterior distribution of model structures allows biologically meaningful interpretation of relationships between the input variables. Conclusion The ability of the Bayesian network to make predictions when only structural or evolutionary data was observed allowed us to conclude that structural information is a significantly better predictor of the functional consequences of a missense mutation than evolutionary information, for the dataset used. Analysis of the posterior distribution of model structures revealed that the top three strongest connections with the class node all involved structural nodes. With this in mind, we derived a simplified Bayesian network that used just these three structural descriptors, with comparable performance to that of an all node network.

  12. An intake prior for the bayesian analysis of plutonium and uranium exposures in an epidemiology study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In Bayesian inference, the initial knowledge regarding the value of a parameter, before additional data are considered, is represented as a prior probability distribution. This paper describes the derivation of a prior distribution of intake that was used for the Bayesian analysis of plutonium and uranium worker doses in a recent epidemiology study. The chosen distribution is log- normal with a geometric standard deviation of 6 and a median value that is derived for each worker based on the duration of the work history and the number of reported acute intakes. The median value is a function of the work history and a constant related to activity in air concentration, M, which is derived separately for uranium and plutonium. The value of M is based primarily on measurements of plutonium and uranium in air derived from historical personal air sampler (PAS) data. However, there is significant uncertainty on the value of M that results from paucity of PAS data and from extrapolating these measurements to actual intakes. This paper compares posterior and prior distributions of intake and investigates the sensitivity of the Bayesian analyses to the assumed value of M. It is found that varying M by a factor of 10 results in a much smaller factor of 2 variation in mean intake and lung dose for both plutonium and uranium. It is concluded that if a log-normal distribution is considered to adequately represent worker intakes, then the Bayesian posterior distribution of dose is relatively insensitive to the value assumed of M. (authors)

  13. UNSUPERVISED TRANSIENT LIGHT CURVE ANALYSIS VIA HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN INFERENCE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanders, N. E.; Soderberg, A. M. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Betancourt, M., E-mail: nsanders@cfa.harvard.edu [Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL (United Kingdom)

    2015-02-10

    Historically, light curve studies of supernovae (SNe) and other transient classes have focused on individual objects with copious and high signal-to-noise observations. In the nascent era of wide field transient searches, objects with detailed observations are decreasing as a fraction of the overall known SN population, and this strategy sacrifices the majority of the information contained in the data about the underlying population of transients. A population level modeling approach, simultaneously fitting all available observations of objects in a transient sub-class of interest, fully mines the data to infer the properties of the population and avoids certain systematic biases. We present a novel hierarchical Bayesian statistical model for population level modeling of transient light curves, and discuss its implementation using an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. As a test case, we apply this model to the Type IIP SN sample from the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey, consisting of 18,837 photometric observations of 76 SNe, corresponding to a joint posterior distribution with 9176 parameters under our model. Our hierarchical model fits provide improved constraints on light curve parameters relevant to the physical properties of their progenitor stars relative to modeling individual light curves alone. Moreover, we directly evaluate the probability for occurrence rates of unseen light curve characteristics from the model hyperparameters, addressing observational biases in survey methodology. We view this modeling framework as an unsupervised machine learning technique with the ability to maximize scientific returns from data to be collected by future wide field transient searches like LSST.

  14. Analysis of a Rapid Evolutionary Radiation Using Ultraconserved Elements: Evidence for a Bias in Some Multispecies Coalescent Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meiklejohn, Kelly A; Faircloth, Brant C; Glenn, Travis C; Kimball, Rebecca T; Braun, Edward L

    2016-07-01

    Rapid evolutionary radiations are expected to require large amounts of sequence data to resolve. To resolve these types of relationships many systematists believe that it will be necessary to collect data by next-generation sequencing (NGS) and use multispecies coalescent ("species tree") methods. Ultraconserved element (UCE) sequence capture is becoming a popular method to leverage the high throughput of NGS to address problems in vertebrate phylogenetics. Here we examine the performance of UCE data for gallopheasants (true pheasants and allies), a clade that underwent a rapid radiation 10-15 Ma. Relationships among gallopheasant genera have been difficult to establish. We used this rapid radiation to assess the performance of species tree methods, using ∼600 kilobases of DNA sequence data from ∼1500 UCEs. We also integrated information from traditional markers (nuclear intron data from 15 loci and three mitochondrial gene regions). Species tree methods exhibited troubling behavior. Two methods [Maximum Pseudolikelihood for Estimating Species Trees (MP-EST) and Accurate Species TRee ALgorithm (ASTRAL)] appeared to perform optimally when the set of input gene trees was limited to the most variable UCEs, though ASTRAL appeared to be more robust than MP-EST to input trees generated using less variable UCEs. In contrast, the rooted triplet consensus method implemented in Triplec performed better when the largest set of input gene trees was used. We also found that all three species tree methods exhibited a surprising degree of dependence on the program used to estimate input gene trees, suggesting that the details of likelihood calculations (e.g., numerical optimization) are important for loci with limited phylogenetic information. As an alternative to summary species tree methods we explored the performance of SuperMatrix Rooted Triple - Maximum Likelihood (SMRT-ML), a concatenation method that is consistent even when gene trees exhibit topological differences

  15. Bayesian Statistical Analysis Applied to NAA Data for Neutron Flux Spectrum Determination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiesa, D.; Previtali, E.; Sisti, M.

    2014-04-01

    In this paper, we present a statistical method, based on Bayesian statistics, to evaluate the neutron flux spectrum from the activation data of different isotopes. The experimental data were acquired during a neutron activation analysis (NAA) experiment [A. Borio di Tigliole et al., Absolute flux measurement by NAA at the Pavia University TRIGA Mark II reactor facilities, ENC 2012 - Transactions Research Reactors, ISBN 978-92-95064-14-0, 22 (2012)] performed at the TRIGA Mark II reactor of Pavia University (Italy). In order to evaluate the neutron flux spectrum, subdivided in energy groups, we must solve a system of linear equations containing the grouped cross sections and the activation rate data. We solve this problem with Bayesian statistical analysis, including the uncertainties of the coefficients and the a priori information about the neutron flux. A program for the analysis of Bayesian hierarchical models, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, is used to define the problem statistical model and solve it. The energy group fluxes and their uncertainties are then determined with great accuracy and the correlations between the groups are analyzed. Finally, the dependence of the results on the prior distribution choice and on the group cross section data is investigated to confirm the reliability of the analysis.

  16. A pragmatic Bayesian perspective on correlation analysis: The exoplanetary gravity - stellar activity case

    CERN Document Server

    Figueira, P; Adibekyan, V Zh; Oshagh, M; Santos, N C

    2016-01-01

    We apply the Bayesian framework to assess the presence of a correlation between two quantities. To do so, we estimate the probability distribution of the parameter of interest, $\\rho$, characterizing the strength of the correlation. We provide an implementation of these ideas and concepts using python programming language and the pyMC module in a very short ($\\sim$130 lines of code, heavily commented) and user-friendly program. We used this tool to assess the presence and properties of the correlation between planetary surface gravity and stellar activity level as measured by the log($R'_{\\mathrm{HK}}$) indicator. The results of the Bayesian analysis are qualitatively similar to those obtained via p-value analysis, and support the presence of a correlation in the data. The results are more robust in their derivation and more informative, revealing interesting features such as asymmetric posterior distributions or markedly different credible intervals, and allowing for a deeper exploration. We encourage the re...

  17. Time-domain analysis of a dynamically tuned signal recycled interferometer for the detection of chirp gravitational waves from coalescing compact binaries

    CERN Document Server

    Simakov, D A

    2013-01-01

    In this article we study a particular method of detection of chirp signals from coalescing compact binary stars -- the so-called dynamical tuning, i.e. amplification of the signal via tracking of its instantaneous frequency by the tuning of the signal-recycled detector. A time-domain consideration developed for signal-recycled interferometers, in particular GEO\\,600, describes the signal and noise evolution in the non-stationary detector. Its non-stationarity is caused by motion of the signal recycling mirror, whose position defines the tuning of the detector. We prove that the shot noise from the dark port and optical losses remains white. The analysis of the transient effects shows that during the perfect tracking of the chirp frequency only transients from amplitude changes arise. The signal-to-noise-ratio gain, calculated in this paper, is $\\sim 16$ for a shot-noise limited detector and $\\sim 4$ for a detector with thermal noise.

  18. Statistical performance analysis by loopy belief propagation in Bayesian image modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The mathematical structures of loopy belief propagation are reviewed for Bayesian image modeling from the standpoint of statistical mechanical informatics. We propose some schemes for evaluating the statistical performance of probabilistic binary image restoration. The schemes are constructed by means of the LBP, which is known as the Bethe approximation in statistical mechanics. We show some results of numerical experiments obtained by using the LBP algorithm as well as the statistical performance analysis for the probabilistic image restorations.

  19. A Hybrid Approach for Reliability Analysis Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Bayesian Network

    OpenAIRE

    Zubair, Muhammad

    2014-01-01

    By using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Bayesian Network (BN) the present research signifies the technical and non-technical issues of nuclear accidents. The study exposed that the technical faults was one major reason of these accidents. Keep an eye on other point of view it becomes clearer that human behavior like dishonesty, insufficient training, and selfishness are also play a key role to cause these accidents. In this study, a hybrid approach for reliability analysis based on AHP ...

  20. A Bayesian Based Functional Mixed-Effects Model for Analysis of LC-MS Data

    OpenAIRE

    Befekadu, Getachew K.; Tadesse, Mahlet G.; Ressom, Habtom W

    2009-01-01

    A Bayesian multilevel functional mixed-effects model with group specific random-effects is presented for analysis of liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) data. The proposed framework allows alignment of LC-MS spectra with respect to both retention time (RT) and mass-to-charge ratio (m/z). Affine transformations are incorporated within the model to account for any variability along the RT and m/z dimensions. Simultaneous posterior inference of all unknown parameters is accomplished ...

  1. Multiple SNP-sets Analysis for Genome-wide Association Studies through Bayesian Latent Variable Selection

    OpenAIRE

    Lu, Zhaohua; Zhu, Hongtu; Knickmeyer, Rebecca C.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; Stephanie, Williams N.; Zou, Fei

    2015-01-01

    The power of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for mapping complex traits with single SNP analysis may be undermined by modest SNP effect sizes, unobserved causal SNPs, correlation among adjacent SNPs, and SNP-SNP interactions. Alternative approaches for testing the association between a single SNP-set and individual phenotypes have been shown to be promising for improving the power of GWAS. We propose a Bayesian latent variable selection (BLVS) method to simultaneously model the joint a...

  2. Semiadaptive Fault Diagnosis via Variational Bayesian Mixture Factor Analysis with Application to Wastewater Treatment

    OpenAIRE

    Hongjun Xiao; Yiqi Liu; Daoping Huang

    2016-01-01

    Mainly due to the hostile environment in wastewater plants (WWTPs), the reliability of sensors with respect to important qualities is often poor. In this work, we present the design of a semiadaptive fault diagnosis method based on the variational Bayesian mixture factor analysis (VBMFA) to support process monitoring. The proposed method is capable of capturing strong nonlinearity and the significant dynamic feature of WWTPs that seriously limit the application of conventional multivariate st...

  3. Bayesian uncertainty analysis for complex physical systems modelled by computer simulators with applications to tipping points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caiado, C. C. S.; Goldstein, M.

    2015-09-01

    In this paper we present and illustrate basic Bayesian techniques for the uncertainty analysis of complex physical systems modelled by computer simulators. We focus on emulation and history matching and also discuss the treatment of observational errors and structural discrepancies in time series. We exemplify such methods using a four-box model for the termohaline circulation. We show how these methods may be applied to systems containing tipping points and how to treat possible discontinuities using multiple emulators.

  4. Modeling and Analysis of Call Center Arrival Data: A Bayesian Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Refik Soyer; M. Murat Tarimcilar

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we present a modulated Poisson process model to describe and analyze arrival data to a call center. The attractive feature of this model is that it takes into account both covariate and time effects on the call volume intensity, and in so doing, enables us to assess the effectiveness of different advertising strategies along with predicting the arrival patterns. A Bayesian analysis of the model is developed and an extension of the model is presented to describe potential hetero...

  5. conting : an R package for Bayesian analysis of complete and incomplete contingency tables

    OpenAIRE

    Overstall, Antony M.; Ruth King

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the R package conting for the Bayesian analysis of complete and incomplete contingency tables using hierarchical log-linear models. This package allows a user to identify interactions between categorical factors (via complete contingency tables) and to estimate closed population sizes using capture-recapture studies (via incomplete contingency tables). The models are fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. In particular, implementations of the ...

  6. Coalescence of sessile drops

    CERN Document Server

    Nikolayev, Vadim; Pomeau, Yves; Andrieu, Claire

    2016-01-01

    We present an experimental and theoretical description of the kinetics of coalescence of two water drops on a plane solid surface. The case of partial wetting is considered. The drops are in an atmosphere of nitrogen saturated with water where they grow by condensation and eventually touch each other and coalesce. A new convex composite drop is rapidly formed that then exponentially and slowly relaxes to an equilibrium hemispherical cap. The characteristic relaxation time is proportional to the drop radius R * at final equilibrium. This relaxation time appears to be nearly 10 7 times larger than the bulk capillary relaxation time t b = R * $\\eta$/$\\sigma$, where $\\sigma$ is the gas--liquid surface tension and $\\eta$ is the liquid shear viscosity. In order to explain this extremely large relaxation time, we consider a model that involves an Arrhenius kinetic factor resulting from a liquid--vapour phase change in the vicinity of the contact line. The model results in a large relaxation time of order t b exp(L/R...

  7. Coalescence of Binary Neutron Stars

    OpenAIRE

    Oohara, Ken-ichi; Namamura, Takashi

    1996-01-01

    The most important sources for laser-interferometric gravitational-wave detectors like LIGO or VIRGO are catastrophic events such as coalescence of a neutron-star binary. The final phase, or the last three milliseconds, of coalescence is considered. We describe results of numerical simulations of coalescing binary neutron stars using Newtonian and post-Newtonian hydrodynamics code and then discuss recent development of our 3D GR code.

  8. Kingman's coalescent and Brownian motion

    OpenAIRE

    Berestycki, J.; Berestycki, N

    2009-01-01

    We describe a simple construction of Kingman's coalescent in terms of a Brownian excursion. This construction is closely related to, and sheds some new light on, earlier work by Aldous and Warren. Our approach also yields some new results: for instance, we obtain the full multifractal spectrum of Kingman's coalescent. This complements earlier work on Beta-coalescents by the authors and Schweinsberg. Surprisingly, the thick part of the spectrum is not obtained by taking the limit as $\\alpha \\t...

  9. Dating ancient Chinese celadon porcelain by neutron activation analysis and bayesian classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dating ancient Chinese porcelain is one of the most important and difficult problems in porcelain archaeological field. Eighteen elements in bodies of ancient celadon porcelains fired in Southern Song to Yuan period (AD 1127-1368) and Ming dynasty (AD 1368-1644), including La, Sm, U, Ce, etc., were determined by neutron activation analysis (NAA). After the outliers of experimental data were excluded and multivariate normal distribution was tested, and Bayesian classification was used for dating of 165 ancient celadon porcelain samples. The results show that 98.2% of total ancient celadon porcelain samples are classified correctly. It means that NAA and Bayesian classification are very useful for dating ancient porcelain. (authors)

  10. Risks Analysis of Logistics Financial Business Based on Evidential Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Yan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Risks in logistics financial business are identified and classified. Making the failure of the business as the root node, a Bayesian network is constructed to measure the risk levels in the business. Three importance indexes are calculated to find the most important risks in the business. And more, considering the epistemic uncertainties in the risks, evidence theory associate with Bayesian network is used as an evidential network in the risk analysis of logistics finance. To find how much uncertainty in root node is produced by each risk, a new index, epistemic importance, is defined. Numerical examples show that the proposed methods could provide a lot of useful information. With the information, effective approaches could be found to control and avoid these sensitive risks, thus keep logistics financial business working more reliable. The proposed method also gives a quantitative measure of risk levels in logistics financial business, which provides guidance for the selection of financing solutions.

  11. Bayesian estimation of dynamic matching function for U-V analysis in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyo, Koki; Noda, Hideo; Kitagawa, Genshiro

    2012-05-01

    In this paper we propose a Bayesian method for analyzing unemployment dynamics. We derive a Beveridge curve for unemployment and vacancy (U-V) analysis from a Bayesian model based on a labor market matching function. In our framework, the efficiency of matching and the elasticities of new hiring with respect to unemployment and vacancy are regarded as time varying parameters. To construct a flexible model and obtain reasonable estimates in an underdetermined estimation problem, we treat the time varying parameters as random variables and introduce smoothness priors. The model is then described in a state space representation, enabling the parameter estimation to be carried out using Kalman filter and fixed interval smoothing. In such a representation, dynamic features of the cyclic unemployment rate and the structural-frictional unemployment rate can be accurately captured.

  12. Application of Bayesian graphs to SN Ia data analysis and compression

    CERN Document Server

    Ma, Con; Bassett, Bruce A

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian graphical models are an efficient tool for modelling complex data and derive self-consistent expressions of the posterior distribution of model parameters. We apply Bayesian graphs to perform statistical analyses of Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) luminosity distance measurements from the Joint Light-curve Analysis (JLA) dataset (Betoule et al. 2014, arXiv:1401.4064). In contrast to the $\\chi^2$ approach used in previous studies, the Bayesian inference allows us to fully account for the standard-candle parameter dependence of the data covariance matrix. Comparing with $\\chi^2$ analysis results we find a systematic offset of the marginal model parameter bounds. We demonstrate that the bias is statistically significant in the case of the SN Ia standardization parameters with a maximal $6\\sigma$ shift of the SN light-curve colour correction. In addition, we find that the evidence for a host galaxy correction is now only $2.4\\sigma$. Systematic offsets on the cosmological parameters remain small, but may incre...

  13. cudaBayesreg: Parallel Implementation of a Bayesian Multilevel Model for fMRI Data Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adelino R. Ferreira da Silva

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Graphic processing units (GPUs are rapidly gaining maturity as powerful general parallel computing devices. A key feature in the development of modern GPUs has been the advancement of the programming model and programming tools. Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA is a software platform for massively parallel high-performance computing on Nvidia many-core GPUs. In functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, the volume of the data to be processed, and the type of statistical analysis to perform call for high-performance computing strategies. In this work, we present the main features of the R-CUDA package cudaBayesreg which implements in CUDA the core of a Bayesian multilevel model for the analysis of brain fMRI data. The statistical model implements a Gibbs sampler for multilevel/hierarchical linear models with a normal prior. The main contribution for the increased performance comes from the use of separate threads for fitting the linear regression model at each voxel in parallel. The R-CUDA implementation of the Bayesian model proposed here has been able to reduce significantly the run-time processing of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC simulations used in Bayesian fMRI data analyses. Presently, cudaBayesreg is only configured for Linux systems with Nvidia CUDA support.

  14. Time-varying nonstationary multivariate risk analysis using a dynamic Bayesian copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, Ali; Burn, Donald H.; Concepción Ausín, María.; Wiper, Michael P.

    2016-03-01

    A time-varying risk analysis is proposed for an adaptive design framework in nonstationary conditions arising from climate change. A Bayesian, dynamic conditional copula is developed for modeling the time-varying dependence structure between mixed continuous and discrete multiattributes of multidimensional hydrometeorological phenomena. Joint Bayesian inference is carried out to fit the marginals and copula in an illustrative example using an adaptive, Gibbs Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. Posterior mean estimates and credible intervals are provided for the model parameters and the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is used to select the model that best captures different forms of nonstationarity over time. This study also introduces a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period for multivariate time-dependent risk analysis in nonstationary environments. The results demonstrate that the nature and the risk of extreme-climate multidimensional processes are changed over time under the impact of climate change, and accordingly the long-term decision making strategies should be updated based on the anomalies of the nonstationary environment.

  15. Applications of Bayesian Procrustes shape analysis to ensemble radar reflectivity nowcast verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Neil I.; Micheas, Athanasios C.; Peng, Yuqiang

    2016-07-01

    This paper introduces the use of Bayesian full Procrustes shape analysis in object-oriented meteorological applications. In particular, the Procrustes methodology is used to generate mean forecast precipitation fields from a set of ensemble forecasts. This approach has advantages over other ensemble averaging techniques in that it can produce a forecast that retains the morphological features of the precipitation structures and present the range of forecast outcomes represented by the ensemble. The production of the ensemble mean avoids the problems of smoothing that result from simple pixel or cell averaging, while producing credible sets that retain information on ensemble spread. Also in this paper, the full Bayesian Procrustes scheme is used as an object verification tool for precipitation forecasts. This is an extension of a previously presented Procrustes shape analysis based verification approach into a full Bayesian format designed to handle the verification of precipitation forecasts that match objects from an ensemble of forecast fields to a single truth image. The methodology is tested on radar reflectivity nowcasts produced in the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information (WDSS-II) by varying parameters in the K-means cluster tracking scheme.

  16. bspmma: An R Package for Bayesian Semiparametric Models for Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah Burr

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available We introduce an R package, bspmma, which implements a Dirichlet-based random effects model specific to meta-analysis. In meta-analysis, when combining effect estimates from several heterogeneous studies, it is common to use a random-effects model. The usual frequentist or Bayesian models specify a normal distribution for the true effects. However, in many situations, the effect distribution is not normal, e.g., it can have thick tails, be skewed, or be multi-modal. A Bayesian nonparametric model based on mixtures of Dirichlet process priors has been proposed in the literature, for the purpose of accommodating the non-normality. We review this model and then describe a competitor, a semiparametric version which has the feature that it allows for a well-defined centrality parameter convenient for determining whether the overall effect is significant. This second Bayesian model is based on a different version of the Dirichlet process prior, and we call it the "conditional Dirichlet model". The package contains functions to carry out analyses based on either the ordinary or the conditional Dirichlet model, functions for calculating certain Bayes factors that provide a check on the appropriateness of the conditional Dirichlet model, and functions that enable an empirical Bayes selection of the precision parameter of the Dirichlet process. We illustrate the use of the package on two examples, and give an interpretation of the results in these two different scenarios.

  17. Baltic sea algae analysis using Bayesian spatial statistics methods

    OpenAIRE

    Eglė Baltmiškytė; Kęstutis Dučinskas

    2013-01-01

    Spatial statistics is one of the fields in statistics dealing with spatialy spread data analysis. Recently, Bayes methods are often applied for data statistical analysis. A spatial data model for predicting algae quantity in the Baltic Sea is made and described in this article. Black Carrageen is a dependent variable and depth, sand, pebble, boulders are independent variables in the described model. Two models with different covariation functions (Gaussian and exponential) are built to estima...

  18. The ubiquitous problem of learning system parameters for dissipative two-level quantum systems: Fourier analysis versus Bayesian estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Schirmer, Sophie; Langbein, Frank

    2014-01-01

    We compare the accuracy, precision and reliability of different methods for estimating key system parameters for two-level systems subject to Hamiltonian evolution and decoherence. It is demonstrated that the use of Bayesian modelling and maximum likelihood estimation is superior to common techniques based on Fourier analysis. Even for simple two-parameter estimation problems, the Bayesian approach yields higher accuracy and precision for the parameter estimates obtained. It requires less dat...

  19. Bubble coalescence in breathing DNA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Novotný, Tomas; Pedersen, Jonas Nyvold; Ambjörnsson, Tobias; Hansen, Mikael Sonne; Metzler, Ralf

    2007-01-01

    We investigate the coalescence of two DNA bubbles initially located at weak segments and separated by a more stable barrier region in a designed construct of double-stranded DNA. The characteristic time for bubble coalescence and the corresponding distribution are derived, as well as the distribu...

  20. Unavailability analysis of a PWR safety system by a Bayesian network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayesian networks (BN) are directed acyclic graphs that have dependencies between variables, which are represented by nodes. These dependencies are represented by lines connecting the nodes and can be directed or not. Thus, it is possible to model conditional probabilities and calculate them with the help of Bayes' Theorem. The objective of this paper is to present the modeling of the failure of a safety system of a typical second generation light water reactor plant, the Containment Heat Removal System (CHRS), whose function is to cool the water of containment reservoir being recirculated through the Containment Spray Recirculation System (CSRS). CSRS is automatically initiated after a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) and together with the CHRS cools the reservoir water. The choice of this system was due to the fact that its analysis by a fault tree is available in Appendix II of the Reactor Safety Study Report (WASH-1400), and therefore all the necessary technical information is also available, such as system diagrams, failure data input and the fault tree itself that was developed to study system failure. The reason for the use of a bayesian network in this context was to assess its ability to reproduce the results of fault tree analyses and also verify the feasibility of treating dependent events. Comparing the fault trees and bayesian networks, the results obtained for the system failure were very close. (author)

  1. An intake prior for the Bayesian analysis of plutonium and uranium exposures in an epidemiology study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puncher, M; Birchall, A; Bull, R K

    2014-12-01

    In Bayesian inference, the initial knowledge regarding the value of a parameter, before additional data are considered, is represented as a prior probability distribution. This paper describes the derivation of a prior distribution of intake that was used for the Bayesian analysis of plutonium and uranium worker doses in a recent epidemiology study. The chosen distribution is log-normal with a geometric standard deviation of 6 and a median value that is derived for each worker based on the duration of the work history and the number of reported acute intakes. The median value is a function of the work history and a constant related to activity in air concentration, M, which is derived separately for uranium and plutonium. The value of M is based primarily on measurements of plutonium and uranium in air derived from historical personal air sampler (PAS) data. However, there is significant uncertainty on the value of M that results from paucity of PAS data and from extrapolating these measurements to actual intakes. This paper compares posterior and prior distributions of intake and investigates the sensitivity of the Bayesian analyses to the assumed value of M. It is found that varying M by a factor of 10 results in a much smaller factor of 2 variation in mean intake and lung dose for both plutonium and uranium. It is concluded that if a log-normal distribution is considered to adequately represent worker intakes, then the Bayesian posterior distribution of dose is relatively insensitive to the value assumed of M. PMID:24191121

  2. A Dynamic Bayesian Approach to Computational Laban Shape Quality Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pavithra Sampath; Gang Qian; Ellen Campana; Todd Ingalls; Jodi James; Stjepan Rajko; Jessica Mumford; Harvey Thornburg; Dilip Swaminathan; Bo Peng

    2009-01-01

    Laban movement analysis (LMA) is a systematic framework for describing all forms of human movement and has been widely applied across animation, biomedicine, dance, and kinesiology. LMA (especially Effort/Shape) emphasizes how internal feelings and intentions govern the patterning of movement throughout the whole body. As we argue, a complex understanding of intention via LMA is necessary for human-computer interaction to become embodied in ways that resemble interaction in the physical world...

  3. Microcanonical thermostatistics analysis without histograms: cumulative distribution and Bayesian approaches

    CERN Document Server

    Alves, Nelson A; Rizzi, Leandro G

    2015-01-01

    Microcanonical thermostatistics analysis has become an important tool to reveal essential aspects of phase transitions in complex systems. An efficient way to estimate the microcanonical inverse temperature $\\beta(E)$ and the microcanonical entropy $S(E)$ is achieved with the statistical temperature weighted histogram analysis method (ST-WHAM). The strength of this method lies on its flexibility, as it can be used to analyse data produced by algorithms with generalised sampling weights. However, for any sampling weight, ST-WHAM requires the calculation of derivatives of energy histograms $H(E)$, which leads to non-trivial and tedious binning tasks for models with continuous energy spectrum such as those for biomolecular and colloidal systems. Here, we discuss two alternative methods that avoid the need for such energy binning to obtain continuous estimates for $H(E)$ in order to evaluate $\\beta(E)$ by using ST-WHAM: (i) a series expansion to estimate probability densities from the empirical cumulative distrib...

  4. Critical parameters for the partial coalescence of a droplet

    CERN Document Server

    Gilet, T; Lecomte, J P; Mulleners, K; Vandewalle, N

    2006-01-01

    The partial coalescence of a droplet onto a planar liquid/liquid interface is investigated theoretically by using a dimensional analysis. It mainly depends on the Bond number (gravity vs. surface tension), the Ohnesorge numbers (viscosity in both fluids in contact vs. surface tension) and the density relative difference. An experimental work on 2000 coalescence events is made in order to study the impact of viscosities and gravity on the coalescence process. Global quantities such as the available surface energy of the droplet has been measured during the coalescence. The surface energy is converted into kinetic energy at a constant rate that is independent of the coalescence outcome. The ratio between the daughter droplet size and the mother droplet size is investigated as a function of the dimensionless numbers. Theoretical models are proposed to fit experimental data. The asymmetrical behavior when liquids are inverted indicates that the viscous dissipation is different in both fluids. In the surrounding f...

  5. Bayesian Analysis and Segmentation of Multichannel Image Sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Michael Ming Hsin

    This thesis is concerned with the segmentation and analysis of multichannel image sequence data. In particular, we use maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) criterion and Gibbs random fields (GRF) to formulate the problems. We start by reviewing the significance of MAP estimation with GRF priors and study the feasibility of various optimization methods for implementing the MAP estimator. We proceed to investigate three areas where image data and parameter estimates are present in multichannels, multiframes, and interrelated in complicated manners. These areas of study include color image segmentation, multislice MR image segmentation, and optical flow estimation and segmentation in multiframe temporal sequences. Besides developing novel algorithms in each of these areas, we demonstrate how to exploit the potential of MAP estimation and GRFs, and we propose practical and efficient implementations. Illustrative examples and relevant experimental results are included.

  6. Bayesian meta-analysis models for microarray data: a comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Song Joon J

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background With the growing abundance of microarray data, statistical methods are increasingly needed to integrate results across studies. Two common approaches for meta-analysis of microarrays include either combining gene expression measures across studies or combining summaries such as p-values, probabilities or ranks. Here, we compare two Bayesian meta-analysis models that are analogous to these methods. Results Two Bayesian meta-analysis models for microarray data have recently been introduced. The first model combines standardized gene expression measures across studies into an overall mean, accounting for inter-study variability, while the second combines probabilities of differential expression without combining expression values. Both models produce the gene-specific posterior probability of differential expression, which is the basis for inference. Since the standardized expression integration model includes inter-study variability, it may improve accuracy of results versus the probability integration model. However, due to the small number of studies typical in microarray meta-analyses, the variability between studies is challenging to estimate. The probability integration model eliminates the need to model variability between studies, and thus its implementation is more straightforward. We found in simulations of two and five studies that combining probabilities outperformed combining standardized gene expression measures for three comparison values: the percent of true discovered genes in meta-analysis versus individual studies; the percent of true genes omitted in meta-analysis versus separate studies, and the number of true discovered genes for fixed levels of Bayesian false discovery. We identified similar results when pooling two independent studies of Bacillus subtilis. We assumed that each study was produced from the same microarray platform with only two conditions: a treatment and control, and that the data sets

  7. OVERALL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS UTILIZING BAYESIAN NETWORK FOR THE QUESTIONNAIRE INVESTIGATION ON SNS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsuyoshi Aburai

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Social Networking Service (SNS is prevailing rapidly in Japan in recent years. The most popular ones are Facebook, mixi, and Twitter, which are utilized in various fields of life together with the convenient tool such as smart-phone. In this work, a questionnaire investigation is carried out in order to clarify the current usage condition, issues and desired functions. More than 1,000 samples are gathered. Bayesian network is utilized for this analysis. Sensitivity analysis is carried out by setting evidence to all items. This enables overall analysis for each item. We analyzed them by sensitivity analysis and some useful results were obtained. We have presented the paper concerning this. But the volume becomes too large, therefore we have split them and this paper shows the latter half of the investigation result by setting evidence to Bayesian Network parameters. Differences in usage objectives and SNS sites are made clear by the attributes and preference of SNS users. They can be utilized effectively for marketing by clarifying the target customer through the sensitivity analysis.

  8. Transdimensional Bayesian approach to pulsar timing noise analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, J. A.; Cornish, N. J.

    2016-04-01

    The modeling of intrinsic noise in pulsar timing residual data is of crucial importance for gravitational wave detection and pulsar timing (astro)physics in general. The noise budget in pulsars is a collection of several well-studied effects including radiometer noise, pulse-phase jitter noise, dispersion measure variations, and low-frequency spin noise. However, as pulsar timing data continue to improve, nonstationary and non-power-law noise terms are beginning to manifest which are not well modeled by current noise analysis techniques. In this work, we use a transdimensional approach to model these nonstationary and non-power-law effects through the use of a wavelet basis and an interpolation-based adaptive spectral modeling. In both cases, the number of wavelets and the number of control points in the interpolated spectrum are free parameters that are constrained by the data and then marginalized over in the final inferences, thus fully incorporating our ignorance of the noise model. We show that these new methods outperform standard techniques when nonstationary and non-power-law noise is present. We also show that these methods return results consistent with the standard analyses when no such signals are present.

  9. Brane inflation and the WMAP data: a Bayesian analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) constraints on string inspired 'brane inflation' are investigated. Here, the inflaton field is interpreted as the distance between two branes placed in a flux-enriched background geometry and has a Dirac–Born–Infeld (DBI) kinetic term. Our method relies on an exact numerical integration of the inflationary power spectra coupled to a Markov chain Monte Carlo exploration of the parameter space. This analysis is valid for any perturbative value of the string coupling constant and of the string length, and includes a phenomenological modelling of the reheating era to describe the post-inflationary evolution. It is found that the data favour a scenario where inflation stops by violation of the slow-roll conditions well before brane annihilation, rather than by tachyonic instability. As regards the background geometry, it is established that logv>−10 at 95% confidence level (CL), where v is the dimensionless ratio of the five-dimensional sub-manifold at the base of the six-dimensional warped conifold geometry to the volume of the unit 5-sphere. The reheating energy scale remains poorly constrained, Treh>20 GeV at 95% CL, for an extreme equation of state (wreh∼>-1/3) only. Assuming that the string length is known, the favoured values of the string coupling and of the Ramond–Ramond total background charge appear to be correlated. Finally, the stochastic regime (without and with volume effects) is studied using a perturbative treatment of the Langevin equation. The validity of such an approximate scheme is discussed and shown to be too limited for a full characterization of the quantum effects

  10. Coalescence of Liquid Drops

    CERN Document Server

    Eggers, J; Stone, H A; Eggers, Jens; Lister, John R.; Stone, Howard A.

    1999-01-01

    When two drops of radius $R$ touch, surface tension drives an initially singular motion which joins them into a bigger drop with smaller surface area. This motion is always viscously dominated at early times. We focus on the early-time behavior of the radius $\\rmn$ of the small bridge between the two drops. The flow is driven by a highly curved meniscus of length $2\\pi \\rmn$ and width $\\Delta\\ll\\rmn$ around the bridge, from which we conclude that the leading-order problem is asymptotically equivalent to its two-dimensional counterpart. An exact two-dimensional solution for the case of inviscid surroundings [Hopper, J. Fluid Mech. ${\\bf 213}$, 349 (1990)] shows that R)]$; and thus the same is true in three dimensions. The case of coalescence with an external viscous fluid is also studied in detail both analytically and numerically. A significantly different structure is found in which the outer fluid forms a toroidal bubble of radius $\\Delta \\propto \\rmn^{3/2}$ at the meniscus and $\\rmn \\sim (t\\gamma/4\\pi\\eta)...

  11. BayesLCA: An R Package for Bayesian Latent Class Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur White

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The BayesLCA package for R provides tools for performing latent class analysis within a Bayesian setting. Three methods for fitting the model are provided, incorporating an expectation-maximization algorithm, Gibbs sampling and a variational Bayes approximation. The article briefly outlines the methodology behind each of these techniques and discusses some of the technical difficulties associated with them. Methods to remedy these problems are also described. Visualization methods for each of these techniques are included, as well as criteria to aid model selection.

  12. Crystalline nucleation in undercooled liquids: A Bayesian data-analysis approach for a nonhomogeneous Poisson process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filipponi, A.; Di Cicco, A.; Principi, E.

    2012-12-01

    A Bayesian data-analysis approach to data sets of maximum undercooling temperatures recorded in repeated melting-cooling cycles of high-purity samples is proposed. The crystallization phenomenon is described in terms of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process driven by a temperature-dependent sample nucleation rate J(T). The method was extensively tested by computer simulations and applied to real data for undercooled liquid Ge. It proved to be particularly useful in the case of scarce data sets where the usage of binned data would degrade the available experimental information.

  13. SODIUM ALUMINOSILICATE FOULING AND CLEANING OF DECONTAMINATED SALT SOLUTION COALESCERS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During initial non-radioactive operations at the Modular Caustic Side Solvent Extraction Unit (MCU), the pressure drop across the decontaminated salt solution coalescer reached ∼10 psi while processing ∼1250 gallons of salt solution, indicating possible fouling or plugging of the coalescer. An analysis of the feed solution and the 'plugged coalescer' concluded that the plugging was due to sodium aluminosilicate solids. MCU personnel requested Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) to investigate the formation of the sodium aluminosilicate solids (NAS) and the impact of the solids on the decontaminated salt solution coalescer. Researchers performed developmental testing of the cleaning protocols with a bench-scale coalescer container 1-inch long segments of a new coalescer element fouled using simulant solution. In addition, the authors obtained a 'plugged' Decontaminated Salt Solution coalescer from non-radioactive testing in the MCU and cleaned it according to the proposed cleaning procedure. Conclusions from this testing include the following: (1) Testing with the bench-scale coalescer showed an increase in pressure drop from solid particles, but the increase was not as large as observed at MCU. (2) Cleaning the bench-scale coalescer with nitric acid reduced the pressure drop and removed a large amount of solid particles (11 g of bayerite if all aluminum is present in that form or 23 g of sodium aluminosilicate if all silicon is present in that form). (3) Based on analysis of the cleaning solutions from bench-scale test, the 'dirt capacity' of a 40 inch coalescer for the NAS solids tested is calculated as 450-950 grams. (4) Cleaning the full-scale coalescer with nitric acid reduced the pressure drop and removed a large amount of solid particles (60 g of aluminum and 5 g of silicon). (5) Piping holdup in the full-scale coalescer system caused the pH to differ from the target value. Comparable hold-up in the facility could lead to less effective cleaning and

  14. Fuzzy Bayesian Network-Bow-Tie Analysis of Gas Leakage during Biomass Gasification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Fang; Xu, Kaili; Yao, Xiwen; Li, Yang

    2016-01-01

    Biomass gasification technology has been rapidly developed recently. But fire and poisoning accidents caused by gas leakage restrict the development and promotion of biomass gasification. Therefore, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is necessary for biomass gasification system. Subsequently, Bayesian network-bow-tie (BN-bow-tie) analysis was proposed by mapping bow-tie analysis into Bayesian network (BN). Causes of gas leakage and the accidents triggered by gas leakage can be obtained by bow-tie analysis, and BN was used to confirm the critical nodes of accidents by introducing corresponding three importance measures. Meanwhile, certain occurrence probability of failure was needed in PSA. In view of the insufficient failure data of biomass gasification, the occurrence probability of failure which cannot be obtained from standard reliability data sources was confirmed by fuzzy methods based on expert judgment. An improved approach considered expert weighting to aggregate fuzzy numbers included triangular and trapezoidal numbers was proposed, and the occurrence probability of failure was obtained. Finally, safety measures were indicated based on the obtained critical nodes. The theoretical occurrence probabilities in one year of gas leakage and the accidents caused by it were reduced to 1/10.3 of the original values by these safety measures. PMID:27463975

  15. Fuzzy Bayesian Network-Bow-Tie Analysis of Gas Leakage during Biomass Gasification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Fang; Xu, Kaili; Yao, Xiwen; Li, Yang

    2016-01-01

    Biomass gasification technology has been rapidly developed recently. But fire and poisoning accidents caused by gas leakage restrict the development and promotion of biomass gasification. Therefore, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is necessary for biomass gasification system. Subsequently, Bayesian network-bow-tie (BN-bow-tie) analysis was proposed by mapping bow-tie analysis into Bayesian network (BN). Causes of gas leakage and the accidents triggered by gas leakage can be obtained by bow-tie analysis, and BN was used to confirm the critical nodes of accidents by introducing corresponding three importance measures. Meanwhile, certain occurrence probability of failure was needed in PSA. In view of the insufficient failure data of biomass gasification, the occurrence probability of failure which cannot be obtained from standard reliability data sources was confirmed by fuzzy methods based on expert judgment. An improved approach considered expert weighting to aggregate fuzzy numbers included triangular and trapezoidal numbers was proposed, and the occurrence probability of failure was obtained. Finally, safety measures were indicated based on the obtained critical nodes. The theoretical occurrence probabilities in one year of gas leakage and the accidents caused by it were reduced to 1/10.3 of the original values by these safety measures. PMID:27463975

  16. Fuzzy Bayesian Network-Bow-Tie Analysis of Gas Leakage during Biomass Gasification.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Yan

    Full Text Available Biomass gasification technology has been rapidly developed recently. But fire and poisoning accidents caused by gas leakage restrict the development and promotion of biomass gasification. Therefore, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA is necessary for biomass gasification system. Subsequently, Bayesian network-bow-tie (BN-bow-tie analysis was proposed by mapping bow-tie analysis into Bayesian network (BN. Causes of gas leakage and the accidents triggered by gas leakage can be obtained by bow-tie analysis, and BN was used to confirm the critical nodes of accidents by introducing corresponding three importance measures. Meanwhile, certain occurrence probability of failure was needed in PSA. In view of the insufficient failure data of biomass gasification, the occurrence probability of failure which cannot be obtained from standard reliability data sources was confirmed by fuzzy methods based on expert judgment. An improved approach considered expert weighting to aggregate fuzzy numbers included triangular and trapezoidal numbers was proposed, and the occurrence probability of failure was obtained. Finally, safety measures were indicated based on the obtained critical nodes. The theoretical occurrence probabilities in one year of gas leakage and the accidents caused by it were reduced to 1/10.3 of the original values by these safety measures.

  17. Coalescence Behavior of Gold Nanoparticles

    OpenAIRE

    Wang YQ; Liang WS; Geng CY

    2009-01-01

    Abstract The tetraoctylammonium bromide (TOAB)-stabilized gold nanoparticles have been successfully fabricated. After an annealing of the as-synthesized nanoparticles at 300 °C for 30 min, the coalescence behavior of gold nanoparticles has been investigated using high-resolution transmission electron microscopy in detail. Two types of coalescence, one being an ordered combination of two or more particles in appropriate orientations through twinning, and the other being an ordered combina...

  18. Coalescent trees and their lengths

    OpenAIRE

    Dahmer, Iulia-Andra

    2014-01-01

    The work presented in this thesis is devoted to two classes of mathematical population genetics models, namely the Kingman-coalescent and the Beta-coalescents. Chapters 2, 3 and 4 of the thesis include results concerned with the first model, whereas Chapter 5 presents contributions to the second class of models. Die in dieser Dissertation vorgestellte Arbeit ist zwei Klassen von Modellen aus der Populationsgenetik gewidmet: dem Kingman-Koaleszenten und den Beta-Koaleszenten. Die Kapiteln 2...

  19. Computational inference beyond Kingman's coalescent

    OpenAIRE

    Koskela, Jere; Jenkins, Paul A.; Spano', Dario

    2013-01-01

    Full likelihood inference under Kingman's coalescent is a computationally challenging problem to which importance sampling (IS) and the product of approximate conditionals (PAC) method have been applied successfully. Both methods can be expressed in terms of families of intractable conditional sampling distributions (CSDs), and rely on principled approximations for accurate inference. Recently, more general $\\Lambda$- and $\\Xi$-coalescents have been observed to provide better modelling fits t...

  20. Global divergence of spatial coalescents

    CERN Document Server

    Angel, Omer; Limic, Vlada

    2009-01-01

    A class of processes called spatial \\Lambda-coalescents was recently introduced by Limic and Sturm (2006). In these models particles perform independent random walks on some underlying graph G. In addition, particles on the same site merge randomly according to some given coalescing mechanism. The goal of the current work is to obtain several asymptotic results for these processes. If G=Z^d, and the coalescing mechanism is Kingman's coalescent, then starting with N particles at the origin, the number of particles is of order (log^* N)^d at any fixed time (where log^* is the inverse tower function). At sufficiently large times this number is of order (log^* N)^{d-2}. Beta-coalescents behave similarly, with log log N in place of log^* N. Moreover, it is shown that on any graph and for general \\Lambda-coalescent, starting with infinitely many particles at a single site, the total number of particles will remain infinite at all times, almost surely.

  1. Bayesian analysis of esophageal cancer mortality in the presence of misclassification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Amin Pourhoseingholi

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available

    Background: Esophageal cancer (EC is one of the most common cancers worldwide. Mortality is a familiar projection that addresses the burden of cancers. With regards to cancer mortality, data are important and used to monitor the effects of screening programs, earlier diagnosis and other prognostic factors. But according to the Iranian death registry, about 20% of death statistics are still recorded in misclassified categories. The aim of this study is to estimate EC mortality in the Iranian population, using a Bayesian approach in order to revise this misclassification.

    Methods: We analyzed National death Statistics reported by the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education from 1995 to 2004. ECs [ICD-9; C15] were expressed as annual mortality rates/100,000, overall, by sex, by age group and age standardized rate (ASR. The Bayesian approach was used to correct and account for misclassification effects in Poisson count regression, with a beta prior employed to estimate the mortality rate of EC in age and sex groups.

    Results: According to the Bayesian analysis, there were between 20 to 30 percent underreported deaths in mortality records related to EC, and the rate of mortality from EC has increased through recent years.

    Conclusions: Our findings suggested a substantial undercount of EC mortality in the Iranian population. So
    policy makers who determine research and treatment priorities based on reported death rates should notice of this underreported data.

  2. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents. PMID:26433361

  3. Application of evidence theory in information fusion of multiple sources in bayesian analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周忠宝; 蒋平; 武小悦

    2004-01-01

    How to obtain proper prior distribution is one of the most critical problems in Bayesian analysis. In many practical cases, the prior information often comes from different sources, and the prior distribution form could be easily known in some certain way while the parameters are hard to determine. In this paper, based on the evidence theory, a new method is presented to fuse the information of multiple sources and determine the parameters of the prior distribution when the form is known. By taking the prior distributions which result from the information of multiple sources and converting them into corresponding mass functions which can be combined by Dempster-Shafer (D-S) method, we get the combined mass function and the representative points of the prior distribution. These points are used to fit with the given distribution form to determine the parameters of the prior distrbution. And then the fused prior distribution is obtained and Bayesian analysis can be performed.How to convert the prior distributions into mass functions properly and get the representative points of the fused prior distribution is the central question we address in this paper. The simulation example shows that the proposed method is effective.

  4. Evolutionary Analysis of Dengue Serotype 2 Viruses Using Phylogenetic and Bayesian Methods from New Delhi, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afreen, Nazia; Naqvi, Irshad H; Broor, Shobha; Ahmed, Anwar; Kazim, Syed Naqui; Dohare, Ravins; Kumar, Manoj; Parveen, Shama

    2016-03-01

    Dengue fever is the most important arboviral disease in the tropical and sub-tropical countries of the world. Delhi, the metropolitan capital state of India, has reported many dengue outbreaks, with the last outbreak occurring in 2013. We have recently reported predominance of dengue virus serotype 2 during 2011-2014 in Delhi. In the present study, we report molecular characterization and evolutionary analysis of dengue serotype 2 viruses which were detected in 2011-2014 in Delhi. Envelope genes of 42 DENV-2 strains were sequenced in the study. All DENV-2 strains grouped within the Cosmopolitan genotype and further clustered into three lineages; Lineage I, II and III. Lineage III replaced lineage I during dengue fever outbreak of 2013. Further, a novel mutation Thr404Ile was detected in the stem region of the envelope protein of a single DENV-2 strain in 2014. Nucleotide substitution rate and time to the most recent common ancestor were determined by molecular clock analysis using Bayesian methods. A change in effective population size of Indian DENV-2 viruses was investigated through Bayesian skyline plot. The study will be a vital road map for investigation of epidemiology and evolutionary pattern of dengue viruses in India. PMID:26977703

  5. Evolutionary Analysis of Dengue Serotype 2 Viruses Using Phylogenetic and Bayesian Methods from New Delhi, India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazia Afreen

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Dengue fever is the most important arboviral disease in the tropical and sub-tropical countries of the world. Delhi, the metropolitan capital state of India, has reported many dengue outbreaks, with the last outbreak occurring in 2013. We have recently reported predominance of dengue virus serotype 2 during 2011-2014 in Delhi. In the present study, we report molecular characterization and evolutionary analysis of dengue serotype 2 viruses which were detected in 2011-2014 in Delhi. Envelope genes of 42 DENV-2 strains were sequenced in the study. All DENV-2 strains grouped within the Cosmopolitan genotype and further clustered into three lineages; Lineage I, II and III. Lineage III replaced lineage I during dengue fever outbreak of 2013. Further, a novel mutation Thr404Ile was detected in the stem region of the envelope protein of a single DENV-2 strain in 2014. Nucleotide substitution rate and time to the most recent common ancestor were determined by molecular clock analysis using Bayesian methods. A change in effective population size of Indian DENV-2 viruses was investigated through Bayesian skyline plot. The study will be a vital road map for investigation of epidemiology and evolutionary pattern of dengue viruses in India.

  6. BayGO: Bayesian analysis of ontology term enrichment in microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gomes Suely L

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The search for enriched (aka over-represented or enhanced ontology terms in a list of genes obtained from microarray experiments is becoming a standard procedure for a system-level analysis. This procedure tries to summarize the information focussing on classification designs such as Gene Ontology, KEGG pathways, and so on, instead of focussing on individual genes. Although it is well known in statistics that association and significance are distinct concepts, only the former approach has been used to deal with the ontology term enrichment problem. Results BayGO implements a Bayesian approach to search for enriched terms from microarray data. The R source-code is freely available at http://blasto.iq.usp.br/~tkoide/BayGO in three versions: Linux, which can be easily incorporated into pre-existent pipelines; Windows, to be controlled interactively; and as a web-tool. The software was validated using a bacterial heat shock response dataset, since this stress triggers known system-level responses. Conclusion The Bayesian model accounts for the fact that, eventually, not all the genes from a given category are observable in microarray data due to low intensity signal, quality filters, genes that were not spotted and so on. Moreover, BayGO allows one to measure the statistical association between generic ontology terms and differential expression, instead of working only with the common significance analysis.

  7. Integrative Bayesian analysis of neuroimaging-genetic data with application to cocaine dependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azadeh, Shabnam; Hobbs, Brian P; Ma, Liangsuo; Nielsen, David A; Moeller, F Gerard; Baladandayuthapani, Veerabhadran

    2016-01-15

    Neuroimaging and genetic studies provide distinct and complementary information about the structural and biological aspects of a disease. Integrating the two sources of data facilitates the investigation of the links between genetic variability and brain mechanisms among different individuals for various medical disorders. This article presents a general statistical framework for integrative Bayesian analysis of neuroimaging-genetic (iBANG) data, which is motivated by a neuroimaging-genetic study in cocaine dependence. Statistical inference necessitated the integration of spatially dependent voxel-level measurements with various patient-level genetic and demographic characteristics under an appropriate probability model to account for the multiple inherent sources of variation. Our framework uses Bayesian model averaging to integrate genetic information into the analysis of voxel-wise neuroimaging data, accounting for spatial correlations in the voxels. Using multiplicity controls based on the false discovery rate, we delineate voxels associated with genetic and demographic features that may impact diffusion as measured by fractional anisotropy (FA) obtained from DTI images. We demonstrate the benefits of accounting for model uncertainties in both model fit and prediction. Our results suggest that cocaine consumption is associated with FA reduction in most white matter regions of interest in the brain. Additionally, gene polymorphisms associated with GABAergic, serotonergic and dopaminergic neurotransmitters and receptors were associated with FA. PMID:26484829

  8. Quantitative coalescence measurements for foaming metals by in situ radiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In situ X-ray radiography and spatio-temporal image analysis yield quantitative information about coalescence during metal foam formation and decay. The choice of weighting every detected coalescence event by its projected area yields reliable information about the impact of coalescence on structural coarsening. The comparison of two particle-stabilized metal foams containing ceramic particles of different sizes demonstrates that the stabilization effect is provided by solid particles which are small in comparison to the average film thickness of the foamed liquid melt.

  9. Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications

    CERN Document Server

    Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia

    2015-01-01

    Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on

  10. Bayesian soft x-ray tomography and MHD mode analysis on HL-2A

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dong; Liu, Yi; Svensson, J.; Liu, Y. Q.; Song, X. M.; Yu, L. M.; Mao, Rui; Fu, B. Z.; Deng, Wei; Yuan, B. S.; Ji, X. Q.; Xu, Yuan; Chen, Wei; Zhou, Yan; Yang, Q. W.; Duan, X. R.; Liu, Yong; HL-2A Team

    2016-03-01

    A Bayesian based tomography method using so-called Gaussian processes (GPs) for the emission model has been applied to the soft x-ray (SXR) diagnostics on HL-2A tokamak. To improve the accuracy of reconstructions, the standard GP is extended to a non-stationary version so that different smoothness between the plasma center and the edge can be taken into account in the algorithm. The uncertainty in the reconstruction arising from measurement errors and incapability can be fully analyzed by the usage of Bayesian probability theory. In this work, the SXR reconstructions by this non-stationary Gaussian processes tomography (NSGPT) method have been compared with the equilibrium magnetic flux surfaces, generally achieving a satisfactory agreement in terms of both shape and position. In addition, singular-value-decomposition (SVD) and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) techniques have been applied for the analysis of SXR and magnetic diagnostics, in order to explore the spatial and temporal features of the saturated long-lived magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) instability induced by energetic particles during neutral beam injection (NBI) on HL-2A. The result shows that this ideal internal kink instability has a dominant m/n  =  1/1 mode structure along with a harmonics m/n  =  2/2, which are coupled near the q  =  1 surface with a rotation frequency of 12 kHz.

  11. Variational Bayesian mixture of experts models and sensitivity analysis for nonlinear dynamical systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldacchino, Tara; Cross, Elizabeth J.; Worden, Keith; Rowson, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Most physical systems in reality exhibit a nonlinear relationship between input and output variables. This nonlinearity can manifest itself in terms of piecewise continuous functions or bifurcations, between some or all of the variables. The aims of this paper are two-fold. Firstly, a mixture of experts (MoE) model was trained on different physical systems exhibiting these types of nonlinearities. MoE models separate the input space into homogeneous regions and a different expert is responsible for the different regions. In this paper, the experts were low order polynomial regression models, thus avoiding the need for high-order polynomials. The model was trained within a Bayesian framework using variational Bayes, whereby a novel approach within the MoE literature was used in order to determine the number of experts in the model. Secondly, Bayesian sensitivity analysis (SA) of the systems under investigation was performed using the identified probabilistic MoE model in order to assess how uncertainty in the output can be attributed to uncertainty in the different inputs. The proposed methodology was first tested on a bifurcating Duffing oscillator, and it was then applied to real data sets obtained from the Tamar and Z24 bridges. In all cases, the MoE model was successful in identifying bifurcations and different physical regimes in the data by accurately dividing the input space; including identifying boundaries that were not parallel to coordinate axes.

  12. Critically evaluating the theory and performance of Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Brian R; Höhna, Sebastian; May, Michael R; Rannala, Bruce; Huelsenbeck, John P

    2016-08-23

    Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures (BAMM) has recently taken the study of lineage diversification by storm. BAMM estimates the diversification-rate parameters (speciation and extinction) for every branch of a study phylogeny and infers the number and location of diversification-rate shifts across branches of a tree. Our evaluation of BAMM reveals two major theoretical errors: (i) the likelihood function (which estimates the model parameters from the data) is incorrect, and (ii) the compound Poisson process prior model (which describes the prior distribution of diversification-rate shifts across branches) is incoherent. Using simulation, we demonstrate that these theoretical issues cause statistical pathologies; posterior estimates of the number of diversification-rate shifts are strongly influenced by the assumed prior, and estimates of diversification-rate parameters are unreliable. Moreover, the inability to correctly compute the likelihood or to correctly specify the prior for rate-variable trees precludes the use of Bayesian approaches for testing hypotheses regarding the number and location of diversification-rate shifts using BAMM. PMID:27512038

  13. Spatial-Temporal Epidemiology of Tuberculosis in Mainland China: An Analysis Based on Bayesian Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Cao

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To explore the spatial-temporal interaction effect within a Bayesian framework and to probe the ecological influential factors for tuberculosis. Methods: Six different statistical models containing parameters of time, space, spatial-temporal interaction and their combination were constructed based on a Bayesian framework. The optimum model was selected according to the deviance information criterion (DIC value. Coefficients of climate variables were then estimated using the best fitting model. Results: The model containing spatial-temporal interaction parameter was the best fitting one, with the smallest DIC value (−4,508,660. Ecological analysis results showed the relative risks (RRs of average temperature, rainfall, wind speed, humidity, and air pressure were 1.00324 (95% CI, 1.00150–1.00550, 1.01010 (95% CI, 1.01007–1.01013, 0.83518 (95% CI, 0.93732–0.96138, 0.97496 (95% CI, 0.97181–1.01386, and 1.01007 (95% CI, 1.01003–1.01011, respectively. Conclusions: The spatial-temporal interaction was statistically meaningful and the prevalence of tuberculosis was influenced by the time and space interaction effect. Average temperature, rainfall, wind speed, and air pressure influenced tuberculosis. Average humidity had no influence on tuberculosis.

  14. Multi-level Bayesian safety analysis with unprocessed Automatic Vehicle Identification data for an urban expressway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Qi; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Yu, Rongjie

    2016-03-01

    In traffic safety studies, crash frequency modeling of total crashes is the cornerstone before proceeding to more detailed safety evaluation. The relationship between crash occurrence and factors such as traffic flow and roadway geometric characteristics has been extensively explored for a better understanding of crash mechanisms. In this study, a multi-level Bayesian framework has been developed in an effort to identify the crash contributing factors on an urban expressway in the Central Florida area. Two types of traffic data from the Automatic Vehicle Identification system, which are the processed data capped at speed limit and the unprocessed data retaining the original speed were incorporated in the analysis along with road geometric information. The model framework was proposed to account for the hierarchical data structure and the heterogeneity among the traffic and roadway geometric data. Multi-level and random parameters models were constructed and compared with the Negative Binomial model under the Bayesian inference framework. Results showed that the unprocessed traffic data was superior. Both multi-level models and random parameters models outperformed the Negative Binomial model and the models with random parameters achieved the best model fitting. The contributing factors identified imply that on the urban expressway lower speed and higher speed variation could significantly increase the crash likelihood. Other geometric factors were significant including auxiliary lanes and horizontal curvature. PMID:26722989

  15. Bayesian analysis of nanodosimetric ionisation distributions due to alpha particles and protons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Nardo, L; Ferretti, A; Colautti, P; Grosswendt, B

    2011-02-01

    Track-nanodosimetry has the objective to investigate the stochastic aspect of ionisation events in particle tracks, by evaluating the probability distribution of the number of ionisations produced in a nanometric target volume positioned at distance d from a particle track. Such kind of measurements makes use of electron (or ion) gas detectors with detecting efficiencies non-uniformly distributed inside the target volume. This fact makes the reconstruction of true ionisation distributions, which correspond to an ideal efficiency of 100%, non-trivial. Bayesian unfolding has been applied to ionisation distributions produced by 5.4 MeV alpha particles and 20 MeV protons in cylindrical volumes of propane of 20 nm equivalent size, positioned at different impact parameters with respect to the primary beam. It will be shown that a Bayesian analysis performed by subdividing the target volume in sub-regions of different detection efficiencies is able to provide a good reconstruction of the true nanodosimetric ionisation distributions. PMID:21112893

  16. A Bayesian analysis of the 69 highest energy cosmic rays detected by the Pierre Auger Observatory

    CERN Document Server

    Khanin, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    The origins of ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) remain an open question. Several attempts have been made to cross-correlate the arrival directions of the UHECRs with catalogs of potential sources, but no definite conclusion has been reached. We report a Bayesian analysis of the 69 events from the Pierre Auger Observatory (PAO), that aims to determine the fraction of the UHECRs that originate from known AGNs in the Veron-Cety & Veron (VCV) catalog, as well as AGNs detected with the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (Swift-BAT), galaxies from the 2MASS Redshift Survey (2MRS), and an additional volume-limited sample of 17 nearby AGNs. The study makes use of a multi-level Bayesian model of UHECR injection, propagation and detection. We find that for reasonable ranges of prior parameters, the Bayes factors disfavour a purely isotropic model. For fiducial values of the model parameters, we report 68% credible intervals for the fraction of source originating UHECRs of 0.09+0.05-0.04, 0.25+0.09-0.08, 0.24+0.12-0....

  17. Bayesian Analysis of $C_{x'}$ and $C_{z'}$ Double Polarizations in Kaon Photoproduction

    CERN Document Server

    Hutauruk, P T P

    2010-01-01

    Have been analyzed the latest experimental data for $\\gamma + p \\to K^{+} + \\Lambda$ reaction of $C_{x'}$ and $C_{z'}$ double polarizations. In theoretical calculation, all of these observables can be classified into four Legendre classes and represented by associated Legendre polynomial function itself \\cite{fasano92}. In this analysis we attempt to determine the best data model for both observables. We use the bayesian technique to select the best model by calculating the posterior probabilities and comparing the posterior among the models. The posteriors probabilities for each data model are computed using a Nested sampling integration. From this analysis we concluded that $C_{x'}$ and $C_{z'}$ double polarizations require two and three order of associated Legendre polynomials respectively to describe the data well. The extracted coefficients of each observable will also be presented. It shows the structure of baryon resonances qualitatively

  18. Bayesian methods for meta-analysis of causal relationships estimated using genetic instrumental variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burgess, Stephen; Thompson, Simon G; Andrews, G;

    2010-01-01

    Genetic markers can be used as instrumental variables, in an analogous way to randomization in a clinical trial, to estimate the causal relationship between a phenotype and an outcome variable. Our purpose is to extend the existing methods for such Mendelian randomization studies to the context of...... multiple genetic markers measured in multiple studies, based on the analysis of individual participant data. First, for a single genetic marker in one study, we show that the usual ratio of coefficients approach can be reformulated as a regression with heterogeneous error in the explanatory variable. This...... can be implemented using a Bayesian approach, which is next extended to include multiple genetic markers. We then propose a hierarchical model for undertaking a meta-analysis of multiple studies, in which it is not necessary that the same genetic markers are measured in each study. This provides an...

  19. Bayesian analysis for exponential random graph models using the adaptive exchange sampler

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Ick Hoon

    2013-01-01

    Exponential random graph models have been widely used in social network analysis. However, these models are extremely difficult to handle from a statistical viewpoint, because of the existence of intractable normalizing constants. In this paper, we consider a fully Bayesian analysis for exponential random graph models using the adaptive exchange sampler, which solves the issue of intractable normalizing constants encountered in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. The adaptive exchange sampler can be viewed as a MCMC extension of the exchange algorithm, and it generates auxiliary networks via an importance sampling procedure from an auxiliary Markov chain running in parallel. The convergence of this algorithm is established under mild conditions. The adaptive exchange sampler is illustrated using a few social networks, including the Florentine business network, molecule synthetic network, and dolphins network. The results indicate that the adaptive exchange algorithm can produce more accurate estimates than approximate exchange algorithms, while maintaining the same computational efficiency.

  20. Bayesian Analysis of Inertial Confinement Fusion Experiments at the National Ignition Facility

    CERN Document Server

    Gaffney, J A; Sonnad, V; Libby, S B

    2012-01-01

    We develop a Bayesian inference method that allows the efficient determination of several interesting parameters from complicated high-energy-density experiments performed on the National Ignition Facility (NIF). The model is based on an exploration of phase space using the hydrodynamic code HYDRA. A linear model is used to describe the effect of nuisance parameters on the analysis, allowing an analytic likelihood to be derived that can be determined from a small number of HYDRA runs and then used in existing advanced statistical analysis methods. This approach is applied to a recent experiment in order to determine the carbon opacity and X-ray drive; it is found that the inclusion of prior expert knowledge and fluctuations in capsule dimensions and chemical composition significantly improve the agreement between experiment and theoretical opacity calculations. A parameterisation of HYDRA results is used to test the application of both Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and genetic algorithm (GA) techniques to e...

  1. Bayesian Analysis for Exponential Random Graph Models Using the Adaptive Exchange Sampler.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Ick Hoon; Yuan, Ying; Liang, Faming

    2013-10-01

    Exponential random graph models have been widely used in social network analysis. However, these models are extremely difficult to handle from a statistical viewpoint, because of the intractable normalizing constant and model degeneracy. In this paper, we consider a fully Bayesian analysis for exponential random graph models using the adaptive exchange sampler, which solves the intractable normalizing constant and model degeneracy issues encountered in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. The adaptive exchange sampler can be viewed as a MCMC extension of the exchange algorithm, and it generates auxiliary networks via an importance sampling procedure from an auxiliary Markov chain running in parallel. The convergence of this algorithm is established under mild conditions. The adaptive exchange sampler is illustrated using a few social networks, including the Florentine business network, molecule synthetic network, and dolphins network. The results indicate that the adaptive exchange algorithm can produce more accurate estimates than approximate exchange algorithms, while maintaining the same computational efficiency. PMID:24653788

  2. Antiplatelets versus anticoagulants for the treatment of cervical artery dissection: Bayesian meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hakan Sarikaya

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To compare the effects of antiplatelets and anticoagulants on stroke and death in patients with acute cervical artery dissection. DESIGN: Systematic review with Bayesian meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: The reviewers searched MEDLINE and EMBASE from inception to November 2012, checked reference lists, and contacted authors. STUDY SELECTION: Studies were eligible if they were randomised, quasi-randomised or observational comparisons of antiplatelets and anticoagulants in patients with cervical artery dissection. DATA EXTRACTION: Data were extracted by one reviewer and checked by another. Bayesian techniques were used to appropriately account for studies with scarce event data and imbalances in the size of comparison groups. DATA SYNTHESIS: Thirty-seven studies (1991 patients were included. We found no randomised trial. The primary analysis revealed a large treatment effect in favour of antiplatelets for preventing the primary composite outcome of ischaemic stroke, intracranial haemorrhage or death within the first 3 months after treatment initiation (relative risk 0.32, 95% credibility interval 0.12 to 0.63, while the degree of between-study heterogeneity was moderate (τ(2 = 0.18. In an analysis restricted to studies of higher methodological quality, the possible advantage of antiplatelets over anticoagulants was less obvious than in the main analysis (relative risk 0.73, 95% credibility interval 0.17 to 2.30. CONCLUSION: In view of these results and the safety advantages, easier usage and lower cost of antiplatelets, we conclude that antiplatelets should be given precedence over anticoagulants as a first line treatment in patients with cervical artery dissection unless results of an adequately powered randomised trial suggest the opposite.

  3. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre; C. R. Martins

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  4. Diffusion processes and coalescent trees

    CERN Document Server

    Griffiths, Robert C

    2010-01-01

    We dedicate this paper to Sir John Kingman on his 70th Birthday. In modern mathematical population genetics the ancestral history of a population of genes back in time is described by John Kingman's coalescent tree. Classical and modern approaches model gene frequencies by diffusion processes. This paper, which is partly a review, discusses how coalescent processes are dual to diffusion processes in an analytic and probabilistic sense. Bochner (1954) and Gasper (1972) were interested in characterizations of processes with Beta stationary distributions and Jacobi polynomial eigenfunctions. We discuss the connection with Wright--Fisher diffusions and the characterization of these processes. Subordinated Wright--Fisher diffusions are of this type. An Inverse Gaussian subordinator is interesting and important in subordinated Wright--Fisher diffusions and is related to the Jacobi Poisson Kernel in orthogonal polynomial theory. A related time-subordinated forest of non-mutant edges in the Kingman coalescent is nove...

  5. Bayesian inference of population size history from multiple loci

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drummond Alexei J

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Effective population size (Ne is related to genetic variability and is a basic parameter in many models of population genetics. A number of methods for inferring current and past population sizes from genetic data have been developed since JFC Kingman introduced the n-coalescent in 1982. Here we present the Extended Bayesian Skyline Plot, a non-parametric Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that extends a previous coalescent-based method in several ways, including the ability to analyze multiple loci. Results Through extensive simulations we show the accuracy and limitations of inferring population size as a function of the amount of data, including recovering information about evolutionary bottlenecks. We also analyzed two real data sets to demonstrate the behavior of the new method; a single gene Hepatitis C virus data set sampled from Egypt and a 10 locus Drosophila ananassae data set representing 16 different populations. Conclusion The results demonstrate the essential role of multiple loci in recovering population size dynamics. Multi-locus data from a small number of individuals can precisely recover past bottlenecks in population size which can not be characterized by analysis of a single locus. We also demonstrate that sequence data quality is important because even moderate levels of sequencing errors result in a considerable decrease in estimation accuracy for realistic levels of population genetic variability.

  6. Explosive coalescence of magnetic islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tajima, T.; Sakai, J.-I.

    1986-01-01

    Simulation results from both the EM collisionless particle code and the MHD particle code reveal an explosive reconnection process associated with nonlinear evolution of the coalescence instability. The explosive coalescence is a self-similar process of magnetic collapse, and ensuing amplitude oscillations in the magnetic and electrostatic energies and temperatures are modeled by an equation of motion for the scale factor in the Sagdeev potential. This phenomenon may explain the rapid energy release of a certain class of solar flares during their impulsive phase.

  7. Coalescence Behavior of Gold Nanoparticles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang YQ

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The tetraoctylammonium bromide (TOAB-stabilized gold nanoparticles have been successfully fabricated. After an annealing of the as-synthesized nanoparticles at 300 °C for 30 min, the coalescence behavior of gold nanoparticles has been investigated using high-resolution transmission electron microscopy in detail. Two types of coalescence, one being an ordered combination of two or more particles in appropriate orientations through twinning, and the other being an ordered combination of two small particles with facets through a common lattice plane, have been observed.

  8. Constraints on cosmic-ray propagation models from a global Bayesian analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Trotta, R; Moskalenko, I V; Porter, T A; de Austri, R Ruiz; Strong, A W

    2010-01-01

    Research in many areas of modern physics such as, e.g., indirect searches for dark matter and particle acceleration in SNR shocks, rely heavily on studies of cosmic rays (CRs) and associated diffuse emissions (radio, microwave, X-rays, gamma rays). While very detailed numerical models of CR propagation exist, a quantitative statistical analysis of such models has been so far hampered by the large computational effort that those models require. Although statistical analyses have been carried out before using semi-analytical models (where the computation is much faster), the evaluation of the results obtained from such models is difficult, as they necessarily suffer from many simplifying assumptions, The main objective of this paper is to present a working method for a full Bayesian parameter estimation for a numerical CR propagation model. For this study, we use the GALPROP code, the most advanced of its kind, that uses astrophysical information, nuclear and particle data as input to self-consistently predict ...

  9. Bayesian analysis of flaw sizing data of the NESC III exercise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Non-destructive inspections are performed to give confidence of the non-existence of flaws exceeding a certain safe limit in the inspected structural component. The principal uncertainties related to these inspections are the probability of not detecting an existing flaw larger than a given size, the probability of a false call, and the uncertainty related to the sizing of a flaw. Inspection reliability models aim to account for these uncertainties. This paper presents the analysis of sizing uncertainty of flaws for the results of the NESC III Round Robin Trials on defect-containing dissimilar metal welds. Model parameters are first estimated to characterize the sizing capabilities of various teams. A Bayesian updating of the flaw depth distribution is then demonstrated by combining information from measurement results and sizing performance

  10. Fermi's paradox, extraterrestrial life and the future of humanity: a Bayesian analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Verendel, Vilhelm

    2015-01-01

    The Great Filter interpretation of Fermi's great silence asserts that $Npq$ is not a very large number, where $N$ is the number of potentially life-supporting planets in the observable universe, $p$ is the probability that a randomly chosen such planet develops intelligent life to the level of present-day human civilization, and $q$ is the conditional probability that it then goes on to develop a technological supercivilization visible all over the observable universe. Evidence suggests that $N$ is huge, which implies that $pq$ is very small. Hanson (1998) and Bostrom (2008) have argued that the discovery of extraterrestrial life would point towards $p$ not being small and therefore a very small $q$, which can be seen as bad news for humanity's prospects of colonizing the universe. Here we investigate whether a Bayesian analysis supports their argument, and the answer turns out to depend critically on the choice of prior distribution.

  11. Bayesian semiparametric power spectral density estimation in gravitational wave data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Edwards, Matthew C; Christensen, Nelson

    2015-01-01

    The standard noise model in gravitational wave (GW) data analysis assumes detector noise is stationary and Gaussian distributed, with a known power spectral density (PSD) that is usually estimated using clean off-source data. Real GW data often depart from these assumptions, and misspecified parametric models of the PSD could result in misleading inferences. We propose a Bayesian semiparametric approach to improve this. We use a nonparametric Bernstein polynomial prior on the PSD, with weights attained via a Dirichlet process distribution, and update this using the Whittle likelihood. Posterior samples are obtained using a Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampler. We simultaneously estimate the reconstruction parameters of a rotating core collapse supernova GW burst that has been embedded in simulated Advanced LIGO noise. We also discuss an approach to deal with non-stationary data by breaking longer data streams into smaller and locally stationary components.

  12. Bayesian semiparametric power spectral density estimation with applications in gravitational wave data analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Matthew C.; Meyer, Renate; Christensen, Nelson

    2015-09-01

    The standard noise model in gravitational wave (GW) data analysis assumes detector noise is stationary and Gaussian distributed, with a known power spectral density (PSD) that is usually estimated using clean off-source data. Real GW data often depart from these assumptions, and misspecified parametric models of the PSD could result in misleading inferences. We propose a Bayesian semiparametric approach to improve this. We use a nonparametric Bernstein polynomial prior on the PSD, with weights attained via a Dirichlet process distribution, and update this using the Whittle likelihood. Posterior samples are obtained using a blocked Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampler. We simultaneously estimate the reconstruction parameters of a rotating core collapse supernova GW burst that has been embedded in simulated Advanced LIGO noise. We also discuss an approach to deal with nonstationary data by breaking longer data streams into smaller and locally stationary components.

  13. Selection of Trusted Service Providers by Enforcing Bayesian Analysis in iVCE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GU Bao-jun; LI Xiao-yong; WANG Wei-nong

    2008-01-01

    The initiative of internet-based virtual computing environment (iVCE) aims to provide the end users and applications With a harmonious, trustworthy and transparent integrated computing environment which will facilitate sharing and collaborating of network resources between applications. Trust management is an elementary component for iVCE. The uncertain and dynamic characteristics of iVCE necessitate the requirement for the trust management to be subjective, historical evidence based and context dependent. This paper presents a Bayesian analysis-based trust model, which aims to secure the active agents for selecting appropriate trustod services in iVCE. Simulations are made to analyze the properties of the trust model which show that the subjective prior information influences trust evaluation a lot and the model stimulates positive interactions.

  14. Bayesian Reliability Analysis of Non-Stationarity in Multi-agent Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TONT Gabriela

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The Bayesian methods provide information about the meaningful parameters in a statistical analysis obtained by combining the prior and sampling distributions to form the posterior distribution of theparameters. The desired inferences are obtained from this joint posterior. An estimation strategy for hierarchical models, where the resulting joint distribution of the associated model parameters cannotbe evaluated analytically, is to use sampling algorithms, known as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods, from which approximate solutions can be obtained. Both serial and parallel configurations of subcomponents are permitted. The capability of time-dependent method to describe a multi-state system is based on a case study, assessingthe operatial situation of studied system. The rationality and validity of the presented model are demonstrated via a case of study. The effect of randomness of the structural parameters is alsoexamined.

  15. pyBLoCXS: Bayesian Low-Count X-ray Spectral analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siemiginowska, Aneta; Kashyap, Vinay; Refsdal, Brian; van Dyk, David; Connors, Alanna; Park, Taeyoung

    2012-04-01

    pyBLoCXS is a sophisticated Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based algorithm designed to carry out Bayesian Low-Count X-ray Spectral (BLoCXS) analysis in the Sherpa environment. The code is a Python extension to Sherpa that explores parameter space at a suspected minimum using a predefined Sherpa model to high-energy X-ray spectral data. pyBLoCXS includes a flexible definition of priors and allows for variations in the calibration information. It can be used to compute posterior predictive p-values for the likelihood ratio test. The pyBLoCXS code has been tested with a number of simple single-component spectral models; it should be used with great care in more complex settings.

  16. Bayesian analysis of the effective charge from spectroscopic bremsstrahlung measurement in fusion plasmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krychowiak, M.; König, R.; Klinger, T.; Fischer, R.

    2004-11-01

    At the stellarator Wendelstein 7-AS (W7-AS) a spectrally resolving two channel system for the measurement of line-of-sight averaged Zeff values has been tested in preparation for its planned installation as a multichannel Zeff-profile measurement system on the stellarator Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) which is presently under construction. The measurement is performed using the bremsstrahlung intensity in the wavelength region of ultraviolet to near infrared. The spectrally resolved measurement allows to eliminate signal contamination by line radiation. For statistical data analysis a procedure based on Bayesian probability theory has been developed. With this method it is possible to estimate the bremsstrahlung background in the measured signal and its error without the necessity to fit the spectral lines. For evaluation of the random error in Zeff the signal noise has been investigated. Furthermore, the linearity and behavior of the charge-coupled device detector at saturation has been analyzed.

  17. Intuitive logic revisited: new data and a Bayesian mixed model meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrik Singmann

    Full Text Available Recent research on syllogistic reasoning suggests that the logical status (valid vs. invalid of even difficult syllogisms can be intuitively detected via differences in conceptual fluency between logically valid and invalid syllogisms when participants are asked to rate how much they like a conclusion following from a syllogism (Morsanyi & Handley, 2012. These claims of an intuitive logic are at odds with most theories on syllogistic reasoning which posit that detecting the logical status of difficult syllogisms requires effortful and deliberate cognitive processes. We present new data replicating the effects reported by Morsanyi and Handley, but show that this effect is eliminated when controlling for a possible confound in terms of conclusion content. Additionally, we reanalyze three studies (n = 287 without this confound with a Bayesian mixed model meta-analysis (i.e., controlling for participant and item effects which provides evidence for the null-hypothesis and against Morsanyi and Handley's claim.

  18. TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA LIGHT-CURVE INFERENCE: HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN ANALYSIS IN THE NEAR-INFRARED

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present a comprehensive statistical analysis of the properties of Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) light curves in the near-infrared using recent data from Peters Automated InfraRed Imaging TELescope and the literature. We construct a hierarchical Bayesian framework, incorporating several uncertainties including photometric error, peculiar velocities, dust extinction, and intrinsic variations, for principled and coherent statistical inference. SN Ia light-curve inferences are drawn from the global posterior probability of parameters describing both individual supernovae and the population conditioned on the entire SN Ia NIR data set. The logical structure of the hierarchical model is represented by a directed acyclic graph. Fully Bayesian analysis of the model and data is enabled by an efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm exploiting the conditional probabilistic structure using Gibbs sampling. We apply this framework to the JHKs SN Ia light-curve data. A new light-curve model captures the observed J-band light-curve shape variations. The marginal intrinsic variances in peak absolute magnitudes are σ(MJ) = 0.17 ± 0.03, σ(MH) = 0.11 ± 0.03, and σ(MKs) = 0.19 ± 0.04. We describe the first quantitative evidence for correlations between the NIR absolute magnitudes and J-band light-curve shapes, and demonstrate their utility for distance estimation. The average residual in the Hubble diagram for the training set SNe at cz > 2000kms-1 is 0.10 mag. The new application of bootstrap cross-validation to SN Ia light-curve inference tests the sensitivity of the statistical model fit to the finite sample and estimates the prediction error at 0.15 mag. These results demonstrate that SN Ia NIR light curves are as effective as corrected optical light curves, and, because they are less vulnerable to dust absorption, they have great potential as precise and accurate cosmological distance indicators.

  19. From "weight of evidence" to quantitative data integration using multicriteria decision analysis and Bayesian methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkov, Igor; Massey, Olivia; Keisler, Jeff; Rusyn, Ivan; Hartung, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    "Weighing" available evidence in the process of decision-making is unavoidable, yet it is one step that routinely raises suspicions: what evidence should be used, how much does it weigh, and whose thumb may be tipping the scales? This commentary aims to evaluate the current state and future roles of various types of evidence for hazard assessment as it applies to environmental health. In its recent evaluation of the US Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Risk Information System assessment process, the National Research Council committee singled out the term "weight of evidence" (WoE) for critique, deeming the process too vague and detractive to the practice of evaluating human health risks of chemicals. Moving the methodology away from qualitative, vague and controversial methods towards generalizable, quantitative and transparent methods for appropriately managing diverse lines of evidence is paramount for both regulatory and public acceptance of the hazard assessments. The choice of terminology notwithstanding, a number of recent Bayesian WoE-based methods, the emergence of multi criteria decision analysis for WoE applications, as well as the general principles behind the foundational concepts of WoE, show promise in how to move forward and regain trust in the data integration step of the assessments. We offer our thoughts on the current state of WoE as a whole and while we acknowledge that many WoE applications have been largely qualitative and subjective in nature, we see this as an opportunity to turn WoE towards a quantitative direction that includes Bayesian and multi criteria decision analysis. PMID:25592482

  20. A parametric Bayesian combination of local and regional information in flood frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidou, O.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.; Barbet, M.; Bruneau, P.; BobéE, B.

    2006-11-01

    Because of their impact on hydraulic structure design as well as on floodplain management, flood quantiles must be estimated with the highest precision given available information. If the site of interest has been monitored for a sufficiently long period (more than 30-40 years), at-site frequency analysis can be used to estimate flood quantiles with a fair precision. Otherwise, regional estimation may be used to mitigate the lack of data, but local information is then ignored. A commonly used approach to combine at-site and regional information is the linear empirical Bayes estimation: Under the assumption that both local and regional flood quantile estimators have a normal distribution, the empirical Bayesian estimator of the true quantile is the weighted average of both estimations. The weighting factor for each estimator is conversely proportional to its variance. We propose in this paper an alternative Bayesian method for combining local and regional information which provides the full probability density of quantiles and parameters. The application of the method is made with the generalized extreme values (GEV) distribution, but it can be extended to other types of extreme value distributions. In this method the prior distributions are obtained using a regional log linear regression model, and then local observations are used within a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to infer the posterior distributions of parameters and quantiles. Unlike the empirical Bayesian approach the proposed method works even with a single local observation. It also relaxes the hypothesis of normality of the local quantiles probability distribution. The performance of the proposed methodology is compared to that of local, regional, and empirical Bayes estimators on three generated regional data sets with different statistical characteristics. The results show that (1) when the regional log linear model is unbiased, the proposed method gives better estimations of the GEV quantiles and

  1. Gamma prior distribution selection for Bayesian analysis of failure rate and reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is assumed that the phenomenon under study is such that the time-to-failure may be modeled by an exponential distribution with failure rate lambda. For Bayesian analyses of the assumed model, the family of gamma distributions provides conjugate prior models for lambda. Thus, an experimenter needs to select a particular gamma model to conduct a Bayesian reliability analysis. The purpose of this report is to present a methodology that can be used to translate engineering information, experience, and judgment into a choice of a gamma prior distribution. The proposed methodology assumes that the practicing engineer can provide percentile data relating to either the failure rate or the reliability of the phenomenon being investigated. For example, the methodology will select the gamma prior distribution which conveys an engineer's belief that the failure rate lambda simultaneously satisfies the probability statements, P(lambda less than 1.0 x 10-3) equals 0.50 and P(lambda less than 1.0 x 10-5) equals 0.05. That is, two percentiles provided by an engineer are used to determine a gamma prior model which agrees with the specified percentiles. For those engineers who prefer to specify reliability percentiles rather than the failure rate percentiles illustrated above, it is possible to use the induced negative-log gamma prior distribution which satisfies the probability statements, P(R(t0) less than 0.99) equals 0.50 and P(R(t0) less than 0.99999) equals 0.95, for some operating time t0. The report also includes graphs for selected percentiles which assist an engineer in applying the procedure. 28 figures, 16 tables

  2. Application of dynamic Bayesian network to risk analysis of domino effects in chemical infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A domino effect is a low frequency high consequence chain of accidents where a primary accident (usually fire and explosion) in a unit triggers secondary accidents in adjacent units. High complexity and growing interdependencies of chemical infrastructures make them increasingly vulnerable to domino effects. Domino effects can be considered as time dependent processes. Thus, not only the identification of involved units but also their temporal entailment in the chain of accidents matter. More importantly, in the case of domino-induced fires which can generally last much longer compared to explosions, foreseeing the temporal evolution of domino effects and, in particular, predicting the most probable sequence of accidents (or involved units) in a domino effect can be of significance in the allocation of preventive and protective safety measures. Although many attempts have been made to identify the spatial evolution of domino effects, the temporal evolution of such accidents has been overlooked. We have proposed a methodology based on dynamic Bayesian network to model both the spatial and temporal evolutions of domino effects and also to quantify the most probable sequence of accidents in a potential domino effect. The application of the developed methodology has been demonstrated via a hypothetical fuel storage plant. - Highlights: • A Dynamic Bayesian Network methodology has been developed to model domino effects. • Considering time-dependencies, both spatial and temporal evolutions of domino effects have been modeled. • The concept of most probable sequence of accidents has been proposed instead of the most probable combination of accidents. • Using backward analysis, the most vulnerable units have been identified during a potential domino effect. • The proposed methodology does not need to identify a unique primary unit (accident) for domino effect modeling

  3. Gamma prior distribution selection for Bayesian analysis of failure rate and reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waller, R.A.; Johnson, M.M.; Waterman, M.S.; Martz, H.F. Jr.

    1976-07-01

    It is assumed that the phenomenon under study is such that the time-to-failure may be modeled by an exponential distribution with failure rate lambda. For Bayesian analyses of the assumed model, the family of gamma distributions provides conjugate prior models for lambda. Thus, an experimenter needs to select a particular gamma model to conduct a Bayesian reliability analysis. The purpose of this report is to present a methodology that can be used to translate engineering information, experience, and judgment into a choice of a gamma prior distribution. The proposed methodology assumes that the practicing engineer can provide percentile data relating to either the failure rate or the reliability of the phenomenon being investigated. For example, the methodology will select the gamma prior distribution which conveys an engineer's belief that the failure rate lambda simultaneously satisfies the probability statements, P(lambda less than 1.0 x 10/sup -3/) equals 0.50 and P(lambda less than 1.0 x 10/sup -5/) equals 0.05. That is, two percentiles provided by an engineer are used to determine a gamma prior model which agrees with the specified percentiles. For those engineers who prefer to specify reliability percentiles rather than the failure rate percentiles illustrated above, it is possible to use the induced negative-log gamma prior distribution which satisfies the probability statements, P(R(t/sub 0/) less than 0.99) equals 0.50 and P(R(t/sub 0/) less than 0.99999) equals 0.95, for some operating time t/sub 0/. The report also includes graphs for selected percentiles which assist an engineer in applying the procedure. 28 figures, 16 tables.

  4. Reliability Analysis of I and C Architecture of Research Reactors Using Bayesian Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this research project is to identify a configuration of architecture which gives highest availability with maintaining low cost of manufacturing. In this regard, two configurations of a single channel of RPS are formulated in the current article and BN models were constructed. Bayesian network analysis was performed to find the reliability features. This is a continuation of study towards the standardization of I and C architecture for low and medium power research reactors. This research is the continuation of study to analyze the reliability of single channel of Reactor Protection System (RPS) using Bayesian networks. The focus of research was on the development of architecture for low power research reactors. What level of reliability is sufficient for protection, safety and control systems in case of low power research reactors? There should be a level which should satisfy all the regulatory requirements as well as operational demands with optimized cost of construction. Scholars, researchers and material investigators from educational and research institutes are demanding for construction of more research reactors. In order to meet this demand and construct more units, it is necessary to do more research in various areas. The research is also needed to make a standardization of research reactor I and C architectures on the same lines of commercial power plants. The research reactors are categorized into two broad categories, Low power research reactors and medium to high power research reactors. According to IAEA TECDOC-1234, Research reactors with 0.250-2.0 MW power rating or 2.5-10 Χ 1011 n/cm2.s. flux are termed low power reactor whereas research reactors ranging from 2-10 MW power rating or 0.1-10 Χ 1013 n/cm2.s. are considered as Medium to High power research reactors. Some other standards (IAEA NP-T-5.1) define multipurpose research reactor ranging from power few hundred KW to 10 MW as low power research reactor

  5. Bias correction and Bayesian analysis of aggregate counts in SAGE libraries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Briggs William M

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Tag-based techniques, such as SAGE, are commonly used to sample the mRNA pool of an organism's transcriptome. Incomplete digestion during the tag formation process may allow for multiple tags to be generated from a given mRNA transcript. The probability of forming a tag varies with its relative location. As a result, the observed tag counts represent a biased sample of the actual transcript pool. In SAGE this bias can be avoided by ignoring all but the 3' most tag but will discard a large fraction of the observed data. Taking this bias into account should allow more of the available data to be used leading to increased statistical power. Results Three new hierarchical models, which directly embed a model for the variation in tag formation probability, are proposed and their associated Bayesian inference algorithms are developed. These models may be applied to libraries at both the tag and aggregate level. Simulation experiments and analysis of real data are used to contrast the accuracy of the various methods. The consequences of tag formation bias are discussed in the context of testing differential expression. A description is given as to how these algorithms can be applied in that context. Conclusions Several Bayesian inference algorithms that account for tag formation effects are compared with the DPB algorithm providing clear evidence of superior performance. The accuracy of inferences when using a particular non-informative prior is found to depend on the expression level of a given gene. The multivariate nature of the approach easily allows both univariate and joint tests of differential expression. Calculations demonstrate the potential for false positive and negative findings due to variation in tag formation probabilities across samples when testing for differential expression.

  6. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of high complexity data for the inversion of metric InSAR in urban environments

    OpenAIRE

    Quartulli, Marco Francesco

    2006-01-01

    In this thesis, structured hierarchical Bayesian models and estimators are considered for the analysis of multidimensional datasets representing high complexity phenomena. The analysis is motivated by the problem of urban scene reconstruction and understanding from meter resolution InSAR data, observations of highly diverse, structured settlements through sophisticated, coherent radar based instruments from airborne or spaceborne platforms at distances of up to hundreds of kilometers from ...

  7. Application of Bayesian and cost benefit risk analysis in water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varouchakis, E. A.; Palogos, I.; Karatzas, G. P.

    2016-03-01

    Decision making is a significant tool in water resources management applications. This technical note approaches a decision dilemma that has not yet been considered for the water resources management of a watershed. A common cost-benefit analysis approach, which is novel in the risk analysis of hydrologic/hydraulic applications, and a Bayesian decision analysis are applied to aid the decision making on whether or not to construct a water reservoir for irrigation purposes. The alternative option examined is a scaled parabolic fine variation in terms of over-pumping violations in contrast to common practices that usually consider short-term fines. The methodological steps are analytically presented associated with originally developed code. Such an application, and in such detail, represents new feedback. The results indicate that the probability uncertainty is the driving issue that determines the optimal decision with each methodology, and depending on the unknown probability handling, each methodology may lead to a different optimal decision. Thus, the proposed tool can help decision makers to examine and compare different scenarios using two different approaches before making a decision considering the cost of a hydrologic/hydraulic project and the varied economic charges that water table limit violations can cause inside an audit interval. In contrast to practices that assess the effect of each proposed action separately considering only current knowledge of the examined issue, this tool aids decision making by considering prior information and the sampling distribution of future successful audits.

  8. Bayesian statistical modeling of spatially correlated error structure in atmospheric tracer inverse analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Mukherjee

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Inverse modeling applications in atmospheric chemistry are increasingly addressing the challenging statistical issues of data synthesis by adopting refined statistical analysis methods. This paper advances this line of research by addressing several central questions in inverse modeling, focusing specifically on Bayesian statistical computation. Motivated by problems of refining bottom-up estimates of source/sink fluxes of trace gas and aerosols based on increasingly high-resolution satellite retrievals of atmospheric chemical concentrations, we address head-on the need for integrating formal spatial statistical methods of residual error structure in global scale inversion models. We do this using analytically and computationally tractable spatial statistical models, know as conditional autoregressive spatial models, as components of a global inversion framework. We develop Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to explore and fit these spatial structures in an overall statistical framework that simultaneously estimates source fluxes. Additional aspects of the study extend the statistical framework to utilize priors in a more physically realistic manner, and to formally address and deal with missing data in satellite retrievals. We demonstrate the analysis in the context of inferring carbon monoxide (CO sources constrained by satellite retrievals of column CO from the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT instrument on the TERRA satellite, paying special attention to evaluating performance of the inverse approach using various statistical diagnostic metrics. This is developed using synthetic data generated to resemble MOPITT data to define a~proof-of-concept and model assessment, and then in analysis of real MOPITT data.

  9. Efficient Methods for Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis and Global Optimization of Computationally Expensive Environmental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoemaker, Christine; Espinet, Antoine; Pang, Min

    2015-04-01

    Models of complex environmental systems can be computationally expensive in order to describe the dynamic interactions of the many components over a sizeable time period. Diagnostics of these systems can include forward simulations of calibrated models under uncertainty and analysis of alternatives of systems management. This discussion will focus on applications of new surrogate optimization and uncertainty analysis methods to environmental models that can enhance our ability to extract information and understanding. For complex models, optimization and especially uncertainty analysis can require a large number of model simulations, which is not feasible for computationally expensive models. Surrogate response surfaces can be used in Global Optimization and Uncertainty methods to obtain accurate answers with far fewer model evaluations, which made the methods practical for computationally expensive models for which conventional methods are not feasible. In this paper we will discuss the application of the SOARS surrogate method for estimating Bayesian posterior density functions for model parameters for a TOUGH2 model of geologic carbon sequestration. We will also briefly discuss new parallel surrogate global optimization algorithm applied to two groundwater remediation sites that was implemented on a supercomputer with up to 64 processors. The applications will illustrate the use of these methods to predict the impact of monitoring and management on subsurface contaminants.

  10. Bayesian Inference for Neural Electromagnetic Source Localization: Analysis of MEG Visual Evoked Activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We have developed a Bayesian approach to the analysis of neural electromagnetic (MEG/EEG) data that can incorporate or fuse information from other imaging modalities and addresses the ill-posed inverse problem by sarnpliig the many different solutions which could have produced the given data. From these samples one can draw probabilistic inferences about regions of activation. Our source model assumes a variable number of variable size cortical regions of stimulus-correlated activity. An active region consists of locations on the cortical surf ace, within a sphere centered on some location in cortex. The number and radi of active regions can vary to defined maximum values. The goal of the analysis is to determine the posterior probability distribution for the set of parameters that govern the number, location, and extent of active regions. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to generate a large sample of sets of parameters distributed according to the posterior distribution. This sample is representative of the many different source distributions that could account for given data, and allows identification of probable (i.e. consistent) features across solutions. Examples of the use of this analysis technique with both simulated and empirical MEG data are presented

  11. Bayesian Inference for Neural Electromagnetic Source Localization: Analysis of MEG Visual Evoked Activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George, J.S.; Schmidt, D.M.; Wood, C.C.

    1999-02-01

    We have developed a Bayesian approach to the analysis of neural electromagnetic (MEG/EEG) data that can incorporate or fuse information from other imaging modalities and addresses the ill-posed inverse problem by sarnpliig the many different solutions which could have produced the given data. From these samples one can draw probabilistic inferences about regions of activation. Our source model assumes a variable number of variable size cortical regions of stimulus-correlated activity. An active region consists of locations on the cortical surf ace, within a sphere centered on some location in cortex. The number and radi of active regions can vary to defined maximum values. The goal of the analysis is to determine the posterior probability distribution for the set of parameters that govern the number, location, and extent of active regions. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to generate a large sample of sets of parameters distributed according to the posterior distribution. This sample is representative of the many different source distributions that could account for given data, and allows identification of probable (i.e. consistent) features across solutions. Examples of the use of this analysis technique with both simulated and empirical MEG data are presented.

  12. Bayesian reliability analysis for non-periodic inspection with estimation of uncertain parameters; Bayesian shinraisei kaiseki wo tekiyoshita hiteiki kozo kensa ni kansuru kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Itagaki, H. [Yokohama National University, Yokohama (Japan). Faculty of Engineering; Asada, H.; Ito, S. [National Aerospace Laboratory, Tokyo (Japan); Shinozuka, M.

    1996-12-31

    Risk assessed structural positions in a pressurized fuselage of a transport-type aircraft applied with damage tolerance design are taken up as the subject of discussion. A small number of data obtained from inspections on the positions was used to discuss the Bayesian reliability analysis that can estimate also a proper non-periodic inspection schedule, while estimating proper values for uncertain factors. As a result, time period of generating fatigue cracks was determined according to procedure of detailed visual inspections. The analysis method was found capable of estimating values that are thought reasonable and the proper inspection schedule using these values, in spite of placing the fatigue crack progress expression in a very simple form and estimating both factors as the uncertain factors. Thus, the present analysis method was verified of its effectiveness. This study has discussed at the same time the structural positions, modeling of fatigue cracks generated and develop in the positions, conditions for destruction, damage factors, and capability of the inspection from different viewpoints. This reliability analysis method is thought effective also on such other structures as offshore structures. 18 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  13. Bayesian Analysis Made Simple An Excel GUI for WinBUGS

    CERN Document Server

    Woodward, Philip

    2011-01-01

    From simple NLMs to complex GLMMs, this book describes how to use the GUI for WinBUGS - BugsXLA - an Excel add-in written by the author that allows a range of Bayesian models to be easily specified. With case studies throughout, the text shows how to routinely apply even the more complex aspects of model specification, such as GLMMs, outlier robust models, random effects Emax models, auto-regressive errors, and Bayesian variable selection. It provides brief, up-to-date discussions of current issues in the practical application of Bayesian methods. The author also explains how to obtain free so

  14. Bayesian analysis for the Burr type XII distribution based on record values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Nadar

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we reviewed and extended some results that have been derived on record values from the two parameters Burr Type XII distribution. The two parameters were assumed to be random variables and Bayes estimates were derived on the basis of a linear exponential (LINEX loss function. Estimates for future record values were derived using non Bayesian and Bayesian approaches. In the Bayesian approach we reviewed the estimators obtained by Ahmedi and Doostparast (2006 using the well known squared error loss (SEL function and we derived estimate for the future record value under LINEX loss function. A numerical example with tables and figures illustrated the findings.

  15. BayesPeak: Bayesian analysis of ChIP-seq data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stark Rory

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background High-throughput sequencing technology has become popular and widely used to study protein and DNA interactions. Chromatin immunoprecipitation, followed by sequencing of the resulting samples, produces large amounts of data that can be used to map genomic features such as transcription factor binding sites and histone modifications. Methods Our proposed statistical algorithm, BayesPeak, uses a fully Bayesian hidden Markov model to detect enriched locations in the genome. The structure accommodates the natural features of the Solexa/Illumina sequencing data and allows for overdispersion in the abundance of reads in different regions. Moreover, a control sample can be incorporated in the analysis to account for experimental and sequence biases. Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are applied to estimate the posterior distributions of the model parameters, and posterior probabilities are used to detect the sites of interest. Conclusion We have presented a flexible approach for identifying peaks from ChIP-seq reads, suitable for use on both transcription factor binding and histone modification data. Our method estimates probabilities of enrichment that can be used in downstream analysis. The method is assessed using experimentally verified data and is shown to provide high-confidence calls with low false positive rates.

  16. Bayesian analysis of uncertainty in predisposing and triggering factors for landslides hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandric, I.; Petropoulos, Y.; Chitu, Z.; Mihai, B.

    2012-04-01

    The landslide hazard analysis models takes into consideration both predisposing and triggering factors combined into a Bayesian temporal network with uncertainty propagation. The model uses as predisposing factors the first and second derivatives from DEM, the effective precipitations, runoff, lithology and land use. The latter is expressed not as land use classes, as for example CORINE, but as leaf area index. The LAI offers the advantage of modelling not just the changes from different time periods expressed in years, but also the seasonal changes in land use throughout a year. The LAI index was derived from Landsat time series images, starting from 1984 and up to 2011. All the images available for the Panatau administrative unit in Buzau County, Romania, have been downloaded from http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov, including the images with cloud cover. The model is run in a monthly time step and for each time step all the parameters values, a-priory, conditional and posterior probability are obtained and stored in a log file. The validation process uses landslides that have occurred during the period up to the active time step and checks the records of the probabilities and parameters values for those times steps with the values of the active time step. Each time a landslide has been positive identified new a-priory probabilities are recorded for each parameter. A complete log for the entire model is saved and used for statistical analysis and a NETCDF file is created

  17. Bayesian analysis of anisotropic cosmologies: Bianchi VII_h and WMAP

    CERN Document Server

    McEwen, J D; Feeney, S M; Peiris, H V; Lasenby, A N

    2013-01-01

    We perform a definitive analysis of Bianchi VII_h cosmologies with WMAP observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies. Bayesian analysis techniques are developed to study anisotropic cosmologies using full-sky and partial-sky, masked CMB temperature data. We apply these techniques to analyse the full-sky internal linear combination (ILC) map and a partial-sky, masked W-band map of WMAP 9-year observations. In addition to the physically motivated Bianchi VII_h model, we examine phenomenological models considered in previous studies, in which the Bianchi VII_h parameters are decoupled from the standard cosmological parameters. In the two phenomenological models considered, Bayes factors of 1.7 and 1.1 units of log-evidence favouring a Bianchi component are found in full-sky ILC data. The corresponding best-fit Bianchi maps recovered are similar for both phenomenological models and are very close to those found in previous studies using earlier WMAP data releases. However, no evi...

  18. Estimation of a quantity of interest in uncertainty analysis: Some help from Bayesian decision theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the context of risk analysis under uncertainty, we focus here on the problem of estimating a so-called quantity of interest of an uncertainty analysis problem, i.e. a given feature of the probability distribution function (pdf) of the output of a deterministic model with uncertain inputs. We will stay here in a fully probabilistic setting. A common problem is how to account for epistemic uncertainty tainting the parameter of the probability distribution of the inputs. In the standard practice, this uncertainty is often neglected (plug-in approach). When a specific uncertainty assessment is made, under the basis of the available information (expertise and/or data), a common solution consists in marginalizing the joint distribution of both observable inputs and parameters of the probabilistic model (i.e. computing the predictive pdf of the inputs), then propagating it through the deterministic model. We will reinterpret this approach in the light of Bayesian decision theory, and will put into evidence that this practice leads the analyst to adopt implicitly a specific loss function which may be inappropriate for the problem under investigation, and suboptimal from a decisional perspective. These concepts are illustrated on a simple numerical example, concerning a case of flood risk assessment.

  19. Bayesian analysis of the dynamic cosmic web in the SDSS galaxy survey

    CERN Document Server

    Leclercq, Florent; Wandelt, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Recent application of the Bayesian algorithm BORG to the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) main sample galaxies resulted in the physical inference of the formation history of the observed large-scale structure from its origin to the present epoch. In this work, we use these inferences as inputs for a detailed probabilistic cosmic web-type analysis. To do so, we generate a large set of data-constrained realizations of the large-scale structure using a fast, fully non-linear gravitational model. We then perform a dynamic classification of the cosmic web into four distinct components (voids, sheets, filaments and clusters) on the basis of the tidal field. Our inference framework automatically and self-consistently propagates typical observational uncertainties to web-type classification. As a result, this study produces highly detailed and accurate cosmographic classification of large-scale structure elements in the SDSS volume. By also providing the history of these structure maps, the approach allows an analysis...

  20. Development of a Bayesian method for the analysis of inertial confinement fusion experiments on the NIF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The complex nature of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments results in a very large number of experimental parameters which, when combined with the myriad physical models that govern target evolution, make the reliable extraction of physics from experimental campaigns very difficult. We develop an inference method that allows all important experimental parameters, and previous knowledge, to be taken into account when investigating underlying microphysics models. The result is framed as a modified χ2 analysis which is easy to implement in existing analyses, and quite portable. We present a first application to a recent convergent ablator experiment performed at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), and investigate the effect of variations in all physical dimensions of the target (very difficult to do using other methods). We show that for well characterized targets in which dimensions vary at the 0.5% level there is little effect, but 3% variations change the results of inferences dramatically. Our Bayesian method allows particular inference results to be associated with prior errors in microphysics models; in our example, tuning the carbon opacity to match experimental data (i.e. ignoring prior knowledge) is equivalent to an assumed prior error of 400% in the tabop opacity tables. This large error is unreasonable, underlining the importance of including prior knowledge in the analysis of these experiments. (paper)

  1. Bayesian Analysis for Dynamic Generalized Linear Latent Model with Application to Tree Survival Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-sheng Cheng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Logistic regression model is the most popular regression technique, available for modeling categorical data especially for dichotomous variables. Classic logistic regression model is typically used to interpret relationship between response variables and explanatory variables. However, in real applications, most data sets are collected in follow-up, which leads to the temporal correlation among the data. In order to characterize the different variables correlations, a new method about the latent variables is introduced in this study. At the same time, the latent variables about AR (1 model are used to depict time dependence. In the framework of Bayesian analysis, parameters estimates and statistical inferences are carried out via Gibbs sampler with Metropolis-Hastings (MH algorithm. Model comparison, based on the Bayes factor, and forecasting/smoothing of the survival rate of the tree are established. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the proposed method and a pika data set is analyzed to illustrate the real application. Since Bayes factor approaches vary significantly, efficiency tests have been performed in order to decide which solution provides a better tool for the analysis of real relational data sets.

  2. Meta-analysis for 2 x 2 tables: a Bayesian approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlin, J B

    1992-01-30

    This paper develops and implements a fully Bayesian approach to meta-analysis, in which uncertainty about effects in distinct but comparable studies is represented by an exchangeable prior distribution. Specifically, hierarchical normal models are used, along with a parametrization that allows a unified approach to deal easily with both clinical trial and case-control study data. Monte Carlo methods are used to obtain posterior distributions for parameters of interest, integrating out the unknown parameters of the exchangeable prior or 'random effects' distribution. The approach is illustrated with two examples, the first involving a data set on the effect of beta-blockers after myocardial infarction, and the second based on a classic data set comprising 14 case-control studies on the effects of smoking on lung cancer. In both examples, rather different conclusions from those previously published are obtained. In particular, it is claimed that widely used methods for meta-analysis, which involve complete pooling of 'O-E' values, lead to understatement of uncertainty in the estimation of overall or typical effect size. PMID:1349763

  3. Bayesian Analysis of Two Stellar Populations in Galactic Globular Clusters III: Analysis of 30 Clusters

    CERN Document Server

    Wagner-Kaiser, R; Sarajedini, A; von Hippel, T; van Dyk, D A; Robinson, E; Stein, N; Jefferys, W H

    2016-01-01

    We use Cycle 21 Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations and HST archival ACS Treasury observations of 30 Galactic Globular Clusters to characterize two distinct stellar populations. A sophisticated Bayesian technique is employed to simultaneously sample the joint posterior distribution of age, distance, and extinction for each cluster, as well as unique helium values for two populations within each cluster and the relative proportion of those populations. We find the helium differences among the two populations in the clusters fall in the range of ~0.04 to 0.11. Because adequate models varying in CNO are not presently available, we view these spreads as upper limits and present them with statistical rather than observational uncertainties. Evidence supports previous studies suggesting an increase in helium content concurrent with increasing mass of the cluster and also find that the proportion of the first population of stars increases with mass as well. Our results are examined in the context of proposed g...

  4. Updating reliability data using feedback analysis: feasibility of a Bayesian subjective method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For years, EDF has used Probabilistic Safety Assessment to evaluate a global indicator of the safety of its nuclear power plants and to optimize the performance while ensuring a certain safety level. Therefore, robustness and relevancy of PSA are very important. That is the reason why EDF wants to improve the relevancy of the reliability parameters used in these models. This article aims to propose a Bayesian approach to build PSA parameters when feedback data is not large enough to use the frequentist method. Our method is called subjective because its purpose is to give engineers pragmatic criteria to apply Bayesian in a controlled and consistent way. Using Bayesian is quite common for example in the United States, because the nuclear power plants are less standardized. Bayesian is often used with generic data as prior. So we have to adapt the general methodology within EDF context. (authors)

  5. Genotype-Based Bayesian Analysis of Gene-Environment Interactions with Multiple Genetic Markers and Misclassification in Environmental Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Iryna Lobach; Ruzong Fan

    2012-01-01

    A key component to understanding etiology of complex diseases, such as cancer, diabetes, alcohol dependence, is to investigate gene-environment interactions. This work is motivated by the following two concerns in the analysis of gene-environment interactions. First, multiple genetic markers in moderate linkage disequilibrium may be involved in susceptibility to a complex disease. Second, environmental factors may be subject to misclassification. We develop a genotype based Bayesian pseudolik...

  6. Specific SSRIs and birth defects: bayesian analysis to interpret new data in the context of previous reports

    OpenAIRE

    Reefhuis, Jennita; Devine, Owen; Friedman, Jan M.; Louik, Carol; Honein, Margaret A.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To follow up on previously reported associations between periconceptional use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and specific birth defects using an expanded dataset from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study. Design Bayesian analysis combining results from independent published analyses with data from a multicenter population based case-control study of birth defects. Setting 10 centers in the United States. Participants 17 952 mothers of infants with birth de...

  7. No control genes required: Bayesian analysis of qRT-PCR data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail V Matz

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Model-based analysis of data from quantitative reverse-transcription PCR (qRT-PCR is potentially more powerful and versatile than traditional methods. Yet existing model-based approaches cannot properly deal with the higher sampling variances associated with low-abundant targets, nor do they provide a natural way to incorporate assumptions about the stability of control genes directly into the model-fitting process. RESULTS: In our method, raw qPCR data are represented as molecule counts, and described using generalized linear mixed models under Poisson-lognormal error. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC algorithm is used to sample from the joint posterior distribution over all model parameters, thereby estimating the effects of all experimental factors on the expression of every gene. The Poisson-based model allows for the correct specification of the mean-variance relationship of the PCR amplification process, and can also glean information from instances of no amplification (zero counts. Our method is very flexible with respect to control genes: any prior knowledge about the expected degree of their stability can be directly incorporated into the model. Yet the method provides sensible answers without such assumptions, or even in the complete absence of control genes. We also present a natural Bayesian analogue of the "classic" analysis, which uses standard data pre-processing steps (logarithmic transformation and multi-gene normalization but estimates all gene expression changes jointly within a single model. The new methods are considerably more flexible and powerful than the standard delta-delta Ct analysis based on pairwise t-tests. CONCLUSIONS: Our methodology expands the applicability of the relative-quantification analysis protocol all the way to the lowest-abundance targets, and provides a novel opportunity to analyze qRT-PCR data without making any assumptions concerning target stability. These procedures have been

  8. Cyclist activity and injury risk analysis at signalized intersections: a Bayesian modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauss, Jillian; Miranda-Moreno, Luis F; Morency, Patrick

    2013-10-01

    This study proposes a two-equation Bayesian modelling approach to simultaneously study cyclist injury occurrence and bicycle activity at signalized intersections as joint outcomes. This approach deals with the potential presence of endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneities and is used to identify factors associated with both cyclist injuries and volumes. Its application to identify high-risk corridors is also illustrated. Montreal, Quebec, Canada is the application environment, using an extensive inventory of a large sample of signalized intersections containing disaggregate motor-vehicle traffic volumes and bicycle flows, geometric design, traffic control and built environment characteristics in the vicinity of the intersections. Cyclist injury data for the period of 2003-2008 is used in this study. Also, manual bicycle counts were standardized using temporal and weather adjustment factors to obtain average annual daily volumes. Results confirm and quantify the effects of both bicycle and motor-vehicle flows on cyclist injury occurrence. Accordingly, more cyclists at an intersection translate into more cyclist injuries but lower injury rates due to the non-linear association between bicycle volume and injury occurrence. Furthermore, the results emphasize the importance of turning motor-vehicle movements. The presence of bus stops and total crosswalk length increase cyclist injury occurrence whereas the presence of a raised median has the opposite effect. Bicycle activity through intersections was found to increase as employment, number of metro stations, land use mix, area of commercial land use type, length of bicycle facilities and the presence of schools within 50-800 m of the intersection increase. Intersections with three approaches are expected to have fewer cyclists than those with four. Using Bayesian analysis, expected injury frequency and injury rates were estimated for each intersection and used to rank corridors. Corridors with high bicycle volumes

  9. Sex differences in the development of neuroanatomical functional connectivity underlying intelligence found using Bayesian connectivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmithorst, Vincent J; Holland, Scott K

    2007-03-01

    A Bayesian method for functional connectivity analysis was adapted to investigate between-group differences. This method was applied in a large cohort of almost 300 children to investigate differences in boys and girls in the relationship between intelligence and functional connectivity for the task of narrative comprehension. For boys, a greater association was shown between intelligence and the functional connectivity linking Broca's area to auditory processing areas, including Wernicke's areas and the right posterior superior temporal gyrus. For girls, a greater association was shown between intelligence and the functional connectivity linking the left posterior superior temporal gyrus to Wernicke's areas bilaterally. A developmental effect was also seen, with girls displaying a positive correlation with age in the association between intelligence and the functional connectivity linking the right posterior superior temporal gyrus to Wernicke's areas bilaterally. Our results demonstrate a sexual dimorphism in the relationship of functional connectivity to intelligence in children and an increasing reliance on inter-hemispheric connectivity in girls with age. PMID:17223578

  10. Bayesian linear regression with skew-symmetric error distributions with applications to survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubio, Francisco J; Genton, Marc G

    2016-06-30

    We study Bayesian linear regression models with skew-symmetric scale mixtures of normal error distributions. These kinds of models can be used to capture departures from the usual assumption of normality of the errors in terms of heavy tails and asymmetry. We propose a general noninformative prior structure for these regression models and show that the corresponding posterior distribution is proper under mild conditions. We extend these propriety results to cases where the response variables are censored. The latter scenario is of interest in the context of accelerated failure time models, which are relevant in survival analysis. We present a simulation study that demonstrates good frequentist properties of the posterior credible intervals associated with the proposed priors. This study also sheds some light on the trade-off between increased model flexibility and the risk of over-fitting. We illustrate the performance of the proposed models with real data. Although we focus on models with univariate response variables, we also present some extensions to the multivariate case in the Supporting Information. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26856806

  11. Analysis of the Schiphol Cell Complex fire using a Bayesian belief net based model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the night of the 26 and 27 October 2005, a fire broke out in the K-Wing of the Schiphol Cell Complex near Amsterdam. Eleven of 43 occupants of this wing died due to smoke inhalation. The Dutch Safety Board analysed the fire and released a report 1 year later. This article presents how a probabilistic model based on Bayesian networks can be used to analyse such a fire. The paper emphasises the usefulness of the model for this analysis. In additional it discusses the applicability for prioritisation of the recommendations such as those posed by the investigation board for the improvements of fire safety in special buildings. The big advantage of the model is that it can be used not only for fire analyses after accidents, but also prior to the accident, for example in the design phase of the building, to estimate the outcome of a possible fire given different possible scenarios. This contribution shows that if such a model was used before the fire occurred the number of fatalities would have not come as a surprise, since the model predicts a larger percentage of people dying than happened in the real fire.

  12. Bayesian analysis of the kinetics of quantal transmitter secretion at the neuromuscular junction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saveliev, Anatoly; Khuzakhmetova, Venera; Samigullin, Dmitry; Skorinkin, Andrey; Kovyazina, Irina; Nikolsky, Eugeny; Bukharaeva, Ellya

    2015-10-01

    The timing of transmitter release from nerve endings is considered nowadays as one of the factors determining the plasticity and efficacy of synaptic transmission. In the neuromuscular junction, the moments of release of individual acetylcholine quanta are related to the synaptic delays of uniquantal endplate currents recorded under conditions of lowered extracellular calcium. Using Bayesian modelling, we performed a statistical analysis of synaptic delays in mouse neuromuscular junction with different patterns of rhythmic nerve stimulation and when the entry of calcium ions into the nerve terminal was modified. We have obtained a statistical model of the release timing which is represented as the summation of two independent statistical distributions. The first of these is the exponentially modified Gaussian distribution. The mixture of normal and exponential components in this distribution can be interpreted as a two-stage mechanism of early and late periods of phasic synchronous secretion. The parameters of this distribution depend on both the stimulation frequency of the motor nerve and the calcium ions' entry conditions. The second distribution was modelled as quasi-uniform, with parameters independent of nerve stimulation frequency and calcium entry. Two different probability density functions for the distribution of synaptic delays suggest at least two independent processes controlling the time course of secretion, one of them potentially involving two stages. The relative contribution of these processes to the total number of mediator quanta released depends differently on the motor nerve stimulation pattern and on calcium ion entry into nerve endings. PMID:26129670

  13. A virtual experimental technique for data collection for a Bayesian network approach to human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayesian network (BN) is a powerful tool for human reliability analysis (HRA) as it can characterize the dependency among different human performance shaping factors (PSFs) and associated actions. It can also quantify the importance of different PSFs that may cause a human error. Data required to fully quantify BN for HRA in offshore emergency situations are not readily available. For many situations, there is little or no appropriate data. This presents significant challenges to assign the prior and conditional probabilities that are required by the BN approach. To handle the data scarcity problem, this paper presents a data collection methodology using a virtual environment for a simplified BN model of offshore emergency evacuation. A two-level, three-factor experiment is used to collect human performance data under different mustering conditions. Collected data are integrated in the BN model and results are compared with a previous study. The work demonstrates that the BN model can assess the human failure likelihood effectively. Besides, the BN model provides the opportunities to incorporate new evidence and handle complex interactions among PSFs and associated actions

  14. Assessment of occupational safety risks in Floridian solid waste systems using Bayesian analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastani, Mehrad; Celik, Nurcin

    2015-10-01

    Safety risks embedded within solid waste management systems continue to be a significant issue and are prevalent at every step in the solid waste management process. To recognise and address these occupational hazards, it is necessary to discover the potential safety concerns that cause them, as well as their direct and/or indirect impacts on the different types of solid waste workers. In this research, our goal is to statistically assess occupational safety risks to solid waste workers in the state of Florida. Here, we first review the related standard industrial codes to major solid waste management methods including recycling, incineration, landfilling, and composting. Then, a quantitative assessment of major risks is conducted based on the data collected using a Bayesian data analysis and predictive methods. The risks estimated in this study for the period of 2005-2012 are then compared with historical statistics (1993-1997) from previous assessment studies. The results have shown that the injury rates among refuse collectors in both musculoskeletal and dermal injuries have decreased from 88 and 15 to 16 and three injuries per 1000 workers, respectively. However, a contrasting trend is observed for the injury rates among recycling workers, for whom musculoskeletal and dermal injuries have increased from 13 and four injuries to 14 and six injuries per 1000 workers, respectively. Lastly, a linear regression model has been proposed to identify major elements of the high number of musculoskeletal and dermal injuries. PMID:26219294

  15. Composite behavior analysis for video surveillance using hierarchical dynamic Bayesian networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Huanhuan; Shan, Yong; Wang, Runsheng

    2011-03-01

    Analyzing composite behaviors involving objects from multiple categories in surveillance videos is a challenging task due to the complicated relationships among human and objects. This paper presents a novel behavior analysis framework using a hierarchical dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) for video surveillance systems. The model is built for extracting objects' behaviors and their relationships by representing behaviors using spatial-temporal characteristics. The recognition of object behaviors is processed by the DBN at multiple levels: features of objects at low level, objects and their relationships at middle level, and event at high level, where event refers to behaviors of a single type object as well as behaviors consisting of several types of objects such as ``a person getting in a car.'' Furthermore, to reduce the complexity, a simple model selection criterion is addressed, by which the appropriated model is picked out from a pool of candidate models. Experiments are shown to demonstrate that the proposed framework could efficiently recognize and semantically describe composite object and human activities in surveillance videos.

  16. Paired Comparison Analysis of the van Baaren Model Using Bayesian Approach with Noninformative Prior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saima Altaf

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available 800x600 Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";} One technique being commonly studied these days because of its attractive applications for the comparison of several objects is the method of paired comparisons. This technique permits the ranking of the objects by means of a score, which reflects the merit of the items on a linear scale. The present study is concerned with the Bayesian analysis of a paired comparison model, namely the van Baaren model VI using noninformative uniform prior. For this purpose, the joint posterior distribution for the parameters of the model, their marginal distributions, posterior estimates (means and modes, the posterior probabilities for comparing the two treatment parameters and the predictive probabilities are obtained.

  17. Bayesian model accounting for within-class biological variability in Serial Analysis of Gene Expression (SAGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brentani Helena

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An important challenge for transcript counting methods such as Serial Analysis of Gene Expression (SAGE, "Digital Northern" or Massively Parallel Signature Sequencing (MPSS, is to carry out statistical analyses that account for the within-class variability, i.e., variability due to the intrinsic biological differences among sampled individuals of the same class, and not only variability due to technical sampling error. Results We introduce a Bayesian model that accounts for the within-class variability by means of mixture distribution. We show that the previously available approaches of aggregation in pools ("pseudo-libraries" and the Beta-Binomial model, are particular cases of the mixture model. We illustrate our method with a brain tumor vs. normal comparison using SAGE data from public databases. We show examples of tags regarded as differentially expressed with high significance if the within-class variability is ignored, but clearly not so significant if one accounts for it. Conclusion Using available information about biological replicates, one can transform a list of candidate transcripts showing differential expression to a more reliable one. Our method is freely available, under GPL/GNU copyleft, through a user friendly web-based on-line tool or as R language scripts at supplemental web-site.

  18. Bayesian analysis of sparse anisotropic universe models and application to the 5-yr WMAP data

    CERN Document Server

    Groeneboom, Nicolaas E

    2008-01-01

    We extend the previously described CMB Gibbs sampling framework to allow for exact Bayesian analysis of anisotropic universe models, and apply this method to the 5-year WMAP temperature observations. This involves adding support for non-diagonal signal covariance matrices, and implementing a general spectral parameter MCMC sampler. As a worked example we apply these techniques to the model recently introduced by Ackerman et al., describing for instance violations of rotational invariance during the inflationary epoch. After verifying the code with simulated data, we analyze the foreground-reduced 5-year WMAP temperature sky maps. For l < 400 and the W-band data, we find tentative evidence for a preferred direction pointing towards (l,b) = (110 deg, 10 deg) with an anisotropy amplitude of g* = 0.15 +- 0.039, nominally equivalent to a 3.8 sigma detection. Similar results are obtained from the V-band data [g* = 0.11 +- 0.039; (l,b) = (130 deg, 20 deg)]. Further, the preferred direction is stable with respect ...

  19. Bayesian linear regression with skew-symmetric error distributions with applications to survival analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Rubio, Francisco J.

    2016-02-09

    We study Bayesian linear regression models with skew-symmetric scale mixtures of normal error distributions. These kinds of models can be used to capture departures from the usual assumption of normality of the errors in terms of heavy tails and asymmetry. We propose a general noninformative prior structure for these regression models and show that the corresponding posterior distribution is proper under mild conditions. We extend these propriety results to cases where the response variables are censored. The latter scenario is of interest in the context of accelerated failure time models, which are relevant in survival analysis. We present a simulation study that demonstrates good frequentist properties of the posterior credible intervals associated with the proposed priors. This study also sheds some light on the trade-off between increased model flexibility and the risk of over-fitting. We illustrate the performance of the proposed models with real data. Although we focus on models with univariate response variables, we also present some extensions to the multivariate case in the Supporting Information.

  20. Bayesian Nonparametric Regression Analysis of Data with Random Effects Covariates from Longitudinal Measurements

    KAUST Repository

    Ryu, Duchwan

    2010-09-28

    We consider nonparametric regression analysis in a generalized linear model (GLM) framework for data with covariates that are the subject-specific random effects of longitudinal measurements. The usual assumption that the effects of the longitudinal covariate processes are linear in the GLM may be unrealistic and if this happens it can cast doubt on the inference of observed covariate effects. Allowing the regression functions to be unknown, we propose to apply Bayesian nonparametric methods including cubic smoothing splines or P-splines for the possible nonlinearity and use an additive model in this complex setting. To improve computational efficiency, we propose the use of data-augmentation schemes. The approach allows flexible covariance structures for the random effects and within-subject measurement errors of the longitudinal processes. The posterior model space is explored through a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. The proposed methods are illustrated and compared to other approaches, the "naive" approach and the regression calibration, via simulations and by an application that investigates the relationship between obesity in adulthood and childhood growth curves. © 2010, The International Biometric Society.

  1. Bayesian analysis of heavy-tailed and long-range dependent Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Timothy; Watkins, Nick; Gramacy, Robert; Franzke, Christian

    2014-05-01

    We have used MCMC algorithms to perform a Bayesian analysis of Auto-Regressive Fractionally-Integrated Moving-Average ARFIMA(p,d,q) processes, which are capable of modelling long range dependence (e.g. Beran et al, 2013). Our principal aim is to obtain inference about the long memory parameter, d, with secondary interest in the scale and location parameters. We have developed a reversible-jump method enabling us to integrate over different model forms for the short memory component. We initially assume Gaussianity, and have tested the method on both synthetic and physical time series. We have extended the ARFIMA model by weakening the Gaussianity assumption, assuming an alpha-stable, heavy tailed, distribution for the innovations, and performing joint inference on d and alpha. We will present a study of the dependence of the posterior variance of the memory parameter d on the length of the time series considered. This will be compared with equivalent error diagnostics for other popular measures of d.

  2. Bayesian Modeling of MPSS Data: Gene Expression Analysis of Bovine Salmonella Infection

    KAUST Repository

    Dhavala, Soma S.

    2010-09-01

    Massively Parallel Signature Sequencing (MPSS) is a high-throughput, counting-based technology available for gene expression profiling. It produces output that is similar to Serial Analysis of Gene Expression and is ideal for building complex relational databases for gene expression. Our goal is to compare the in vivo global gene expression profiles of tissues infected with different strains of Salmonella obtained using the MPSS technology. In this article, we develop an exact ANOVA type model for this count data using a zero-inflatedPoisson distribution, different from existing methods that assume continuous densities. We adopt two Bayesian hierarchical models-one parametric and the other semiparametric with a Dirichlet process prior that has the ability to "borrow strength" across related signatures, where a signature is a specific arrangement of the nucleotides, usually 16-21 base pairs long. We utilize the discreteness of Dirichlet process prior to cluster signatures that exhibit similar differential expression profiles. Tests for differential expression are carried out using nonparametric approaches, while controlling the false discovery rate. We identify several differentially expressed genes that have important biological significance and conclude with a summary of the biological discoveries. This article has supplementary materials online. © 2010 American Statistical Association.

  3. Analysis of detergent-free lipid rafts isolated from CD4+ T cell line: interaction with antigen presenting cells promotes coalescing of lipid rafts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kennedy Colleen

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Lipid rafts present on the plasma membrane play an important role in spatiotemporal regulation of cell signaling. Physical and chemical characterization of lipid raft size and assessment of their composition before, and after cell stimulation will aid in developing a clear understanding of their regulatory role in cell signaling. We have used visual and biochemical methods and approaches for examining individual and lipid raft sub-populations isolated from a mouse CD4+ T cell line in the absence of detergents. Results Detergent-free rafts were analyzed before and after their interaction with antigen presenting cells. We provide evidence that the average diameter of lipid rafts isolated from un-stimulated T cells, in the absence of detergents, is less than 100 nm. Lipid rafts on CD4+ T cell membranes coalesce to form larger structures, after interacting with antigen presenting cells even in the absence of a foreign antigen. Conclusions Findings presented here indicate that lipid raft coalescence occurs during cellular interactions prior to sensing a foreign antigen.

  4. Bayesian belief networks for human reliability analysis: A review of applications and gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) in risk analysis (and in particular Human Reliability Analysis, HRA) is fostered by a number of features, attractive in fields with shortage of data and consequent reliance on subjective judgments: the intuitive graphical representation, the possibility of combining diverse sources of information, the use the probabilistic framework to characterize uncertainties. In HRA, BBN applications are steadily increasing, each emphasizing a different BBN feature or a different HRA aspect to improve. This paper aims at a critical review of these features as well as at suggesting research needs. Five groups of BBN applications are analysed: modelling of organizational factors, analysis of the relationships among failure influencing factors, BBN-based extensions of existing HRA methods, dependency assessment among human failure events, assessment of situation awareness. Further, the paper analyses the process for building BBNs and in particular how expert judgment is used in the assessment of the BBN conditional probability distributions. The gaps identified in the review suggest the need for establishing more systematic frameworks to integrate the different sources of information relevant for HRA (cognitive models, empirical data, and expert judgment) and to investigate algorithms to avoid elicitation of many relationships via expert judgment. - Highlights: • We analyze BBN uses for HRA applications; but some conclusions can be generalized. • Special review focus on BBN building approaches, key for model acceptance. • Gaps relate to the transparency of the BBN building and quantification phases. • Need for more systematic framework to integrate different sources of information. • Need of ways to avoid elicitation of many relationships via expert judgment

  5. Bayesian biostatistics

    CERN Document Server

    Lesaffre, Emmanuel

    2012-01-01

    The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd

  6. Ubiquitous problem of learning system parameters for dissipative two-level quantum systems: Fourier analysis versus Bayesian estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schirmer, Sophie G.; Langbein, Frank C.

    2015-02-01

    We compare the accuracy, precision, and reliability of different methods for estimating key system parameters for two-level systems subject to Hamiltonian evolution and decoherence. It is demonstrated that the use of Bayesian modeling and maximum likelihood estimation is superior to common techniques based on Fourier analysis. Even for simple two-parameter estimation problems, the Bayesian approach yields higher accuracy and precision for the parameter estimates obtained. It requires less data, is more flexible in dealing with different model systems, can deal better with uncertainty in initial conditions and measurements, and enables adaptive refinement of the estimates. The comparison results show that this holds for measurements of large ensembles of spins and atoms limited by Gaussian noise as well as projection noise limited data from repeated single-shot measurements of a single quantum device.

  7. A Unified Method for Inference of Tokamak Equilibria and Validation of Force-Balance Models Based on Bayesian Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    von Nessi, G T

    2012-01-01

    A new method, based on Bayesian analysis, is presented which unifies the inference of plasma equilibria parameters in a Tokamak with the ability to quantify differences between inferred equilibria and Grad-Shafranov force-balance solutions. At the heart of this technique is the new method of observation splitting, which allows multiple forward models to be associated with a single diagnostic observation. This new idea subsequently provides a means by which the the space of GS solutions can be efficiently characterised via a prior distribution. Moreover, by folding force-balance directly into one set of forward models and utilising simple Biot-Savart responses in another, the Bayesian inference of the plasma parameters itself produces an evidence (a normalisation constant of the inferred posterior distribution) which is sensitive to the relative consistency between both sets of models. This evidence can then be used to help determine the relative accuracy of the tested force-balance model across several discha...

  8. A Bayesian Approach for Evaluation of Determinants of Health System Efficiency Using Stochastic Frontier Analysis and Beta Regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Şenel, Talat; Cengiz, Mehmet Ali

    2016-01-01

    In today's world, Public expenditures on health are one of the most important issues for governments. These increased expenditures are putting pressure on public budgets. Therefore, health policy makers have focused on the performance of their health systems and many countries have introduced reforms to improve the performance of their health systems. This study investigates the most important determinants of healthcare efficiency for OECD countries using second stage approach for Bayesian Stochastic Frontier Analysis (BSFA). There are two steps in this study. First we measure 29 OECD countries' healthcare efficiency by BSFA using the data from the OECD Health Database. At second stage, we expose the multiple relationships between the healthcare efficiency and characteristics of healthcare systems across OECD countries using Bayesian beta regression. PMID:27118987

  9. A fluid-mechanical model of elastocapillary coalescence

    KAUST Repository

    Singh, Kiran

    2014-03-25

    © 2014 Cambridge University Press. We present a fluid-mechanical model of the coalescence of a number of elastic objects due to surface tension. We consider an array of spring-block elements separated by thin liquid films, whose dynamics are modelled using lubrication theory. With this simplified model of elastocapillary coalescence, we present the results of numerical simulations for a large number of elements, N = O(104). A linear stability analysis shows that pairwise coalescence is always the most unstable mode of deformation. However, the numerical simulations show that the cluster sizes actually produced by coalescence from a small white-noise perturbation have a distribution that depends on the relative strength of surface tension and elasticity, as measured by an elastocapillary number K. Both the maximum cluster size and the mean cluster size scale like K-1/2 for small K. An analytical solution for the response of the system to a localized perturbation shows that such perturbations generate propagating disturbance fronts, which leave behind \\'frozen-in\\' clusters of a predictable size that also depends on K. A good quantitative comparison between the cluster-size statistics from noisy perturbations and this \\'frozen-in\\' cluster size suggests that propagating fronts may play a crucial role in the dynamics of coalescence.

  10. Bayesian statistical modeling of spatially correlated error structure in atmospheric tracer inverse analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Mukherjee

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available We present and discuss the use of Bayesian modeling and computational methods for atmospheric chemistry inverse analyses that incorporate evaluation of spatial structure in model-data residuals. Motivated by problems of refining bottom-up estimates of source/sink fluxes of trace gas and aerosols based on satellite retrievals of atmospheric chemical concentrations, we address the need for formal modeling of spatial residual error structure in global scale inversion models. We do this using analytically and computationally tractable conditional autoregressive (CAR spatial models as components of a global inversion framework. We develop Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to explore and fit these spatial structures in an overall statistical framework that simultaneously estimates source fluxes. Additional aspects of the study extend the statistical framework to utilize priors on source fluxes in a physically realistic manner, and to formally address and deal with missing data in satellite retrievals. We demonstrate the analysis in the context of inferring carbon monoxide (CO sources constrained by satellite retrievals of column CO from the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT instrument on the TERRA satellite, paying special attention to evaluating performance of the inverse approach using various statistical diagnostic metrics. This is developed using synthetic data generated to resemble MOPITT data to define a proof-of-concept and model assessment, and then in analysis of real MOPITT data. These studies demonstrate the ability of these simple spatial models to substantially improve over standard non-spatial models in terms of statistical fit, ability to recover sources in synthetic examples, and predictive match with real data.

  11. Bayesian network modeling: A case study of an epidemiologic system analysis of cardiovascular risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuster-Parra, P; Tauler, P; Bennasar-Veny, M; Ligęza, A; López-González, A A; Aguiló, A

    2016-04-01

    An extensive, in-depth study of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) seems to be of crucial importance in the research of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in order to prevent (or reduce) the chance of developing or dying from CVD. The main focus of data analysis is on the use of models able to discover and understand the relationships between different CVRF. In this paper a report on applying Bayesian network (BN) modeling to discover the relationships among thirteen relevant epidemiological features of heart age domain in order to analyze cardiovascular lost years (CVLY), cardiovascular risk score (CVRS), and metabolic syndrome (MetS) is presented. Furthermore, the induced BN was used to make inference taking into account three reasoning patterns: causal reasoning, evidential reasoning, and intercausal reasoning. Application of BN tools has led to discovery of several direct and indirect relationships between different CVRF. The BN analysis showed several interesting results, among them: CVLY was highly influenced by smoking being the group of men the one with highest risk in CVLY; MetS was highly influence by physical activity (PA) being again the group of men the one with highest risk in MetS, and smoking did not show any influence. BNs produce an intuitive, transparent, graphical representation of the relationships between different CVRF. The ability of BNs to predict new scenarios when hypothetical information is introduced makes BN modeling an Artificial Intelligence (AI) tool of special interest in epidemiological studies. As CVD is multifactorial the use of BNs seems to be an adequate modeling tool. PMID:26777431

  12. A Bayesian Network Approach for Offshore Risk Analysis Through Linguistic Variables

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach for offshore risk analysis that is capable of dealing with linguistic probabilities in Bayesian networks (BNs). In this paper, linguistic probabilities are used to describe occurrence likelihood of hazardous events that may cause possible accidents in offshore operations. In order to use fuzzy information, an f-weighted valuation function is proposed to transform linguistic judgements into crisp probability distributions which can be easily put into a BN to model causal relationships among risk factors. The use of linguistic variables makes it easier for human experts to express their knowledge, and the transformation of linguistic judgements into crisp probabilities can significantly save the cost of computation, modifying and maintaining a BN model. The flexibility of the method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships, including formally assessed expert opinion when quantitative data are lacking, or when only qualitative or vague statements can be made. The model is a modular representation of uncertain knowledge caused due to randomness, vagueness and ignorance. This makes the risk analysis of offshore engineering systems more functional and easier in many assessment contexts. Specifically, the proposed f-weighted valuation function takes into account not only the dominating values, but also the α-level values that are ignored by conventional valuation methods. A case study of the collision risk between a Floating Production, Storage and Off-loading (FPSO) unit and the authorised vessels due to human elements during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.

  13. Bayesian hierarchical multi-subject multiscale analysis of functional MRI data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanyal, Nilotpal; Ferreira, Marco A R

    2012-11-15

    We develop a methodology for Bayesian hierarchical multi-subject multiscale analysis of functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) data. We begin by modeling the brain images temporally with a standard general linear model. After that, we transform the resulting estimated standardized regression coefficient maps through a discrete wavelet transformation to obtain a sparse representation in the wavelet space. Subsequently, we assign to the wavelet coefficients a prior that is a mixture of a point mass at zero and a Gaussian white noise. In this mixture prior for the wavelet coefficients, the mixture probabilities are related to the pattern of brain activity across different resolutions. To incorporate this information, we assume that the mixture probabilities for wavelet coefficients at the same location and level are common across subjects. Furthermore, we assign for the mixture probabilities a prior that depends on a few hyperparameters. We develop an empirical Bayes methodology to estimate the hyperparameters and, as these hyperparameters are shared by all subjects, we obtain precise estimated values. Then we carry out inference in the wavelet space and obtain smoothed images of the regression coefficients by applying the inverse wavelet transform to the posterior means of the wavelet coefficients. An application to computer simulated synthetic data has shown that, when compared to single-subject analysis, our multi-subject methodology performs better in terms of mean squared error. Finally, we illustrate the utility and flexibility of our multi-subject methodology with an application to an event-related fMRI dataset generated by Postle (2005) through a multi-subject fMRI study of working memory related brain activation. PMID:22951257

  14. Bayesian statistics

    OpenAIRE

    Draper, D.

    2001-01-01

    © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. All rights reserved. Article Outline: Glossary Definition of the Subject and Introduction The Bayesian Statistical Paradigm Three Examples Comparison with the Frequentist Statistical Paradigm Future Directions Bibliography

  15. The taxonomy of the Tarentola mauritanica species complex (Gekkota: Phyllodactylidae): Bayesian species delimitation supports six candidate species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rato, Catarina; Harris, David James; Carranza, Salvador; Machado, Luís; Perera, Ana

    2016-01-01

    The lack of morphological diagnosable characters typical of cryptic species, poses a particular problem to taxonomists. This is especially true when taxa are closely related, sharing considerable amounts of ancestral polymorphism. Phylogenetic studies on the Moorish gecko species-complex, Tarentola mauritanica, uncovered extremely high levels of mtDNA diversity with six identified clades, including one from the Canary Islands identified as T. angustimentalis. Because of the conserved morphology of this species and its paraphyletic status with respect to T. angustimentalis, it was suggested that T. mauritanica is a cryptic species complex. Nevertheless, none of the nuclear loci used were reciprocally monophyletic regarding the mitochondrial lineages due to retention of ancestral polymorphism. In this study, we added three new intron markers to the already available dataset and used additional tools, namely phylogenetic gene trees, species tree and species limits within a Bayesian coalescent framework to confirm the support of the main lineages. Bayesian clustering analysis supports all six mtDNA lineages as independent groups, despite showing signs of ancestral polymorphism or possibly gene flow between the Maghreb/South Iberia and Central Morocco clades. The species tree recovered two major groups; one clustering taxa from Europe and Northern Maghreb and another one encompassing the lineages from Central/Southern Morocco, Central Morocco and Canary Islands, indicating that the ancestor of T. angustimentalis came from the Central/Southern Morocco region. Finally, Bayesian coalescent species delimitation analysis supports all six mitochondrial clades as "unconfirmed candidate species", pending morphological data to define them. PMID:26391222

  16. Bayesian Analysis of Linear Inverse Problems with Applications in Economics and Finance

    OpenAIRE

    De Simoni, Anna

    2009-01-01

    In my PhD thesis I propose a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method for structural econometric models where the functional parameter of interest describes the economic agent's behavior. The structural parameter is characterized as the solution of a functional equation, or by using more technical words, as the solution of an inverse problem that can be either ill-posed or well-posed. From a Bayesian point of view, the parameter of interest is a random function and the solution to the infe...

  17. Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilkey, Kelly M.; Myers, Jerry G.; McRae, Michael P.; Griffin, Elise A.; Kallrui, Aditya S.

    2012-01-01

    The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

  18. Bayesian approach to the analysis of neutron Brillouin scattering data on liquid metals

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Francesco, A.; Guarini, E.; Bafile, U.; Formisano, F.; Scaccia, L.

    2016-08-01

    When the dynamics of liquids and disordered systems at mesoscopic level is investigated by means of inelastic scattering (e.g., neutron or x ray), spectra are often characterized by a poor definition of the excitation lines and spectroscopic features in general and one important issue is to establish how many of these lines need to be included in the modeling function and to estimate their parameters. Furthermore, when strongly damped excitations are present, commonly used and widespread fitting algorithms are particularly affected by the choice of initial values of the parameters. An inadequate choice may lead to an inefficient exploration of the parameter space, resulting in the algorithm getting stuck in a local minimum. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to the analysis of neutron Brillouin scattering data in which the number of excitation lines is treated as unknown and estimated along with the other model parameters. We propose a joint estimation procedure based on a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, which efficiently explores the parameter space, producing a probabilistic measure to quantify the uncertainty on the number of excitation lines as well as reliable parameter estimates. The method proposed could turn out of great importance in extracting physical information from experimental data, especially when the detection of spectral features is complicated not only because of the properties of the sample, but also because of the limited instrumental resolution and count statistics. The approach is tested on generated data set and then applied to real experimental spectra of neutron Brillouin scattering from a liquid metal, previously analyzed in a more traditional way.

  19. New class of hybrid EoS and Bayesian M - R data analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We explore systematically a new class of two-phase equations of state (EoS) for hybrid stars that is characterized by three main features: (1) stiffening of the nuclear EoS at supersaturation densities due to quark exchange effects (Pauli blocking) between hadrons, modelled by an excluded volume correction; (2) stiffening of the quark matter EoS at high densities due to multiquark interactions; and (3) possibility for a strong first-order phase transition with an early onset and large density jump. The third feature results from a Maxwell construction for the possible transition from the nuclear to a quark matter phase and its properties depend on the two parameters used for (1) and (2), respectively. Varying these two parameters, one obtains a class of hybrid EoS that yields solutions of the Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff (TOV) equations for sequences of hadronic and hybrid stars in the mass-radius diagram which cover the full range of patterns according to the Alford-Han-Prakash classification following which a hybrid star branch can be either absent, connected or disconnected with the hadronic one. The latter case often includes a tiny connected branch. The disconnected hybrid star branch, also called ''third family'', corresponds to high-mass twin stars characterized by the same gravitational mass but different radii. We perform a Bayesian analysis and demonstrate that the observation of such a pair of high-mass twin stars would have a sufficient discriminating power to favor hybrid EoS with a strong first-order phase transition over alternative EoS. (orig.)

  20. New class of hybrid EoS and Bayesian M - R data analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvarez-Castillo, D. [JINR Dubna, Bogoliubov Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, Dubna (Russian Federation); Ayriyan, A.; Grigorian, H. [JINR Dubna, Laboratory of Information Technologies, Dubna (Russian Federation); Benic, S. [University of Zagreb, Department of Physics, Zagreb (Croatia); Blaschke, D. [JINR Dubna, Bogoliubov Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, Dubna (Russian Federation); National Research Nuclear University (MEPhI), Moscow (Russian Federation); Typel, S. [GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung GmbH, Darmstadt (Germany)

    2016-03-15

    We explore systematically a new class of two-phase equations of state (EoS) for hybrid stars that is characterized by three main features: (1) stiffening of the nuclear EoS at supersaturation densities due to quark exchange effects (Pauli blocking) between hadrons, modelled by an excluded volume correction; (2) stiffening of the quark matter EoS at high densities due to multiquark interactions; and (3) possibility for a strong first-order phase transition with an early onset and large density jump. The third feature results from a Maxwell construction for the possible transition from the nuclear to a quark matter phase and its properties depend on the two parameters used for (1) and (2), respectively. Varying these two parameters, one obtains a class of hybrid EoS that yields solutions of the Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff (TOV) equations for sequences of hadronic and hybrid stars in the mass-radius diagram which cover the full range of patterns according to the Alford-Han-Prakash classification following which a hybrid star branch can be either absent, connected or disconnected with the hadronic one. The latter case often includes a tiny connected branch. The disconnected hybrid star branch, also called ''third family'', corresponds to high-mass twin stars characterized by the same gravitational mass but different radii. We perform a Bayesian analysis and demonstrate that the observation of such a pair of high-mass twin stars would have a sufficient discriminating power to favor hybrid EoS with a strong first-order phase transition over alternative EoS. (orig.)

  1. Mapping, Bayesian Geostatistical Analysis and Spatial Prediction of Lymphatic Filariasis Prevalence in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, Hannah; Michael, Edwin

    2013-01-01

    There is increasing interest to control or eradicate the major neglected tropical diseases. Accurate modelling of the geographic distributions of parasitic infections will be crucial to this endeavour. We used 664 community level infection prevalence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with eight environmental variables, altitude and population density, and a multivariate Bayesian generalized linear spatial model that allows explicit accounting for spatial autocorrelation and incorporation of uncertainty in input data and model parameters, to construct the first spatially-explicit map describing LF prevalence distribution in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against predictions made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA climate models for 2050 to predict the likely distributions of LF under future climate and population changes. We show that LF prevalence is strongly influenced by spatial autocorrelation between locations but is only weakly associated with environmental covariates. Infection prevalence, however, is found to be related to variations in population density. All associations with key environmental/demographic variables appear to be complex and non-linear. LF prevalence is predicted to be highly heterogenous across Africa, with high prevalences (>20%) estimated to occur primarily along coastal West and East Africa, and lowest prevalences predicted for the central part of the continent. Error maps, however, indicate a need for further surveys to overcome problems with data scarcity in the latter and other regions. Analysis of future changes in prevalence indicates that population growth rather than climate change per se will represent the dominant factor in the predicted increase/decrease and spread of LF on the continent. We indicate that these results could play an important role in aiding the development of strategies that are best able to achieve the goals of parasite elimination locally and globally in a manner that may also account

  2. New class of hybrid EoS and Bayesian M - R data analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Castillo, D.; Ayriyan, A.; Benic, S.; Blaschke, D.; Grigorian, H.; Typel, S.

    2016-03-01

    We explore systematically a new class of two-phase equations of state (EoS) for hybrid stars that is characterized by three main features: 1) stiffening of the nuclear EoS at supersaturation densities due to quark exchange effects (Pauli blocking) between hadrons, modelled by an excluded volume correction; 2) stiffening of the quark matter EoS at high densities due to multiquark interactions; and 3) possibility for a strong first-order phase transition with an early onset and large density jump. The third feature results from a Maxwell construction for the possible transition from the nuclear to a quark matter phase and its properties depend on the two parameters used for 1) and 2), respectively. Varying these two parameters, one obtains a class of hybrid EoS that yields solutions of the Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff (TOV) equations for sequences of hadronic and hybrid stars in the mass-radius diagram which cover the full range of patterns according to the Alford-Han-Prakash classification following which a hybrid star branch can be either absent, connected or disconnected with the hadronic one. The latter case often includes a tiny connected branch. The disconnected hybrid star branch, also called "third family", corresponds to high-mass twin stars characterized by the same gravitational mass but different radii. We perform a Bayesian analysis and demonstrate that the observation of such a pair of high-mass twin stars would have a sufficient discriminating power to favor hybrid EoS with a strong first-order phase transition over alternative EoS.

  3. Bayesian Analysis of Non-Gaussian Long-Range Dependent Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, Timothy; Watkins, Nicholas; Franzke, Christian; Gramacy, Robert

    2013-04-01

    Recent studies [e.g. the Antarctic study of Franzke, J. Climate, 2010] have strongly suggested that surface temperatures exhibit long-range dependence (LRD). The presence of LRD would hamper the identification of deterministic trends and the quantification of their significance. It is well established that LRD processes exhibit stochastic trends over rather long periods of time. Thus, accurate methods for discriminating between physical processes that possess long memory and those that do not are an important adjunct to climate modeling. As we briefly review, the LRD idea originated at the same time as H-selfsimilarity, so it is often not realised that a model does not have to be H-self similar to show LRD [e.g. Watkins, GRL Frontiers, 2013]. We have used Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms to perform a Bayesian analysis of Auto-Regressive Fractionally-Integrated Moving-Average ARFIMA(p,d,q) processes, which are capable of modeling LRD. Our principal aim is to obtain inference about the long memory parameter, d, with secondary interest in the scale and location parameters. We have developed a reversible-jump method enabling us to integrate over different model forms for the short memory component. We initially assume Gaussianity, and have tested the method on both synthetic and physical time series. Many physical processes, for example the Faraday Antarctic time series, are significantly non-Gaussian. We have therefore extended this work by weakening the Gaussianity assumption, assuming an alpha-stable distribution for the innovations, and performing joint inference on d and alpha. Such a modified FARIMA(p,d,q) process is a flexible, initial model for non-Gaussian processes with long memory. We will present a study of the dependence of the posterior variance of the memory parameter d on the length of the time series considered. This will be compared with equivalent error diagnostics for other measures of d.

  4. Species discovery and validation in a cryptic radiation of endangered primates: coalescent-based species delimitation in Madagascar's mouse lemurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hotaling, Scott; Foley, Mary E; Lawrence, Nicolette M; Bocanegra, Jose; Blanco, Marina B; Rasoloarison, Rodin; Kappeler, Peter M; Barrett, Meredith A; Yoder, Anne D; Weisrock, David W

    2016-05-01

    Implementation of the coalescent model in a Bayesian framework is an emerging strength in genetically based species delimitation studies. By providing an objective measure of species diagnosis, these methods represent a quantitative enhancement to the analysis of multilocus data, and complement more traditional methods based on phenotypic and ecological characteristics. Recognized as two species 20 years ago, mouse lemurs (genus Microcebus) now comprise more than 20 species, largely diagnosed from mtDNA sequence data. With each new species description, enthusiasm has been tempered with scientific scepticism. Here, we present a statistically justified and unbiased Bayesian approach towards mouse lemur species delimitation. We perform validation tests using multilocus sequence data and two methodologies: (i) reverse-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling to assess the likelihood of different models defined a priori by a guide tree, and (ii) a Bayes factor delimitation test that compares different species-tree models without a guide tree. We assess the sensitivity of these methods using randomized individual assignments, which has been used in bpp studies, but not with Bayes factor delimitation tests. Our results validate previously diagnosed taxa, as well as new species hypotheses, resulting in support for three new mouse lemur species. As the challenge of multiple researchers using differing criteria to describe diversity is not unique to Microcebus, the methods used here have significant potential for clarifying diversity in other taxonomic groups. We echo previous studies in advocating that multiple lines of evidence, including use of the coalescent model, should be trusted to delimit new species. PMID:26946180

  5. Comparing energy sources for surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation: a Bayesian network meta-analysis of randomized, controlled trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phan, Kevin; Xie, Ashleigh; Kumar, Narendra; Wong, Sophia; Medi, Caroline; La Meir, Mark; Yan, Tristan D

    2015-08-01

    Simplified maze procedures involving radiofrequency, cryoenergy and microwave energy sources have been increasingly utilized for surgical treatment of atrial fibrillation as an alternative to the traditional cut-and-sew approach. In the absence of direct comparisons, a Bayesian network meta-analysis is another alternative to assess the relative effect of different treatments, using indirect evidence. A Bayesian meta-analysis of indirect evidence was performed using 16 published randomized trials identified from 6 databases. Rank probability analysis was used to rank each intervention in terms of their probability of having the best outcome. Sinus rhythm prevalence beyond the 12-month follow-up was similar between the cut-and-sew, microwave and radiofrequency approaches, which were all ranked better than cryoablation (respectively, 39, 36, and 25 vs 1%). The cut-and-sew maze was ranked worst in terms of mortality outcomes compared with microwave, radiofrequency and cryoenergy (2 vs 19, 34, and 24%, respectively). The cut-and-sew maze procedure was associated with significantly lower stroke rates compared with microwave ablation [odds ratio <0.01; 95% confidence interval 0.00, 0.82], and ranked the best in terms of pacemaker requirements compared with microwave, radiofrequency and cryoenergy (81 vs 14, and 1, <0.01% respectively). Bayesian rank probability analysis shows that the cut-and-sew approach is associated with the best outcomes in terms of sinus rhythm prevalence and stroke outcomes, and remains the gold standard approach for AF treatment. Given the limitations of indirect comparison analysis, these results should be viewed with caution and not over-interpreted. PMID:25391388

  6. A Bayesian analysis of rare B decays with advanced Monte Carlo methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beaujean, Frederik

    2012-11-12

    Searching for new physics in rare B meson decays governed by b {yields} s transitions, we perform a model-independent global fit of the short-distance couplings C{sub 7}, C{sub 9}, and C{sub 10} of the {Delta}B=1 effective field theory. We assume the standard-model set of b {yields} s{gamma} and b {yields} sl{sup +}l{sup -} operators with real-valued C{sub i}. A total of 59 measurements by the experiments BaBar, Belle, CDF, CLEO, and LHCb of observables in B{yields}K{sup *}{gamma}, B{yields}K{sup (*)}l{sup +}l{sup -}, and B{sub s}{yields}{mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -} decays are used in the fit. Our analysis is the first of its kind to harness the full power of the Bayesian approach to probability theory. All main sources of theory uncertainty explicitly enter the fit in the form of nuisance parameters. We make optimal use of the experimental information to simultaneously constrain theWilson coefficients as well as hadronic form factors - the dominant theory uncertainty. Generating samples from the posterior probability distribution to compute marginal distributions and predict observables by uncertainty propagation is a formidable numerical challenge for two reasons. First, the posterior has multiple well separated maxima and degeneracies. Second, the computation of the theory predictions is very time consuming. A single posterior evaluation requires O(1s), and a few million evaluations are needed. Population Monte Carlo (PMC) provides a solution to both issues; a mixture density is iteratively adapted to the posterior, and samples are drawn in a massively parallel way using importance sampling. The major shortcoming of PMC is the need for cogent knowledge of the posterior at the initial stage. In an effort towards a general black-box Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, we present a new method to extract the necessary information in a reliable and automatic manner from Markov chains with the help of hierarchical clustering. Exploiting the latest 2012 measurements, the fit

  7. Genome-wide association study of swine farrowing traits. Part II: Bayesian analysis of marker data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, J F; Rempel, L A; Snelling, W M; Wiedmann, R T; Nonneman, D J; Rohrer, G A

    2012-10-01

    Reproductive efficiency has a great impact on the economic success of pork (sus scrofa) production. Number born alive (NBA) and average piglet birth weight (ABW) contribute greatly to reproductive efficiency. To better understand the underlying genetics of birth traits, a genome-wide association study (GWAS) was undertaken. Samples of DNA were collected and tested using the Illumina PorcineSNP60 BeadChip from 1,152 first parity gilts. Traits included total number born (TNB), NBA, number born dead (NBD), number stillborn (NSB), number of mummies (MUM), total litter birth weight (LBW), and ABW. A total of 41,151 SNP were tested using a Bayesian approach. Beginning with the first 5 SNP on SSC1 and ending with the last 5 SNP on the SSCX, SNP were assigned to groups of 5 consecutive SNP by chromosome-position order and analyzed again using a Bayesian approach. From that analysis, 5-SNP groups were selected having no overlap with another 5-SNP groups and no overlap across chromosomes. These selected 5-SNP non-overlapping groups were defined as QTL. Of the available 8,814 QTL, 124 were found to be statistically significant (P false positives. Eleven QTL were found for TNB, 3 on SSC1, 3 on SSC4, 1 on SSC13, 1 on SSC14, 2 on SSC15, and 1 on SSC17. Statistical testing for NBA identified 14 QTL, 4 on SSC1, 1 on SSC4, 1 on SSC6, 1 on SSC10, 1on SSC13, 3 on SSC15, and 3 on SSC17. A single NBD QTL was found on SSC11. No QTL were identified for NSB or MUM. Thirty-three QTL were found for LBW, 3 on SSC1, 1 on SSC2, 1 on SSC3, 5 on SSC4, 2 on SSC5, 5 on SSC6, 3 on SSC7, 2 on SSC9, 1 on SSC10, 2 on SSC14, 6 on SSC15, and 2 on SSC17. A total of 65 QTL were found for ABW, 9 on SSC1, 3 on SSC2, 9 on SSC5, 5 on SSC6, 1 on SSC7, 2 on SSC8, 2 on SSC9, 3 on SSC10, 1 on SSC11, 3 on SSC12, 2 on SSC13, 8 on SSC14, 8 on SSC15, 1 on SSC17, and 8 on SSC18. Several candidate genes have been identified that overlap QTL locations among TNB, NBA, NBD, and ABW. These QTL when combined with

  8. A Bayesian analysis of rare B decays with advanced Monte Carlo methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Searching for new physics in rare B meson decays governed by b → s transitions, we perform a model-independent global fit of the short-distance couplings C7, C9, and C10 of the ΔB=1 effective field theory. We assume the standard-model set of b → sγ and b → sl+l- operators with real-valued Ci. A total of 59 measurements by the experiments BaBar, Belle, CDF, CLEO, and LHCb of observables in B→K*γ, B→K(*)l+l-, and Bs→μ+μ- decays are used in the fit. Our analysis is the first of its kind to harness the full power of the Bayesian approach to probability theory. All main sources of theory uncertainty explicitly enter the fit in the form of nuisance parameters. We make optimal use of the experimental information to simultaneously constrain theWilson coefficients as well as hadronic form factors - the dominant theory uncertainty. Generating samples from the posterior probability distribution to compute marginal distributions and predict observables by uncertainty propagation is a formidable numerical challenge for two reasons. First, the posterior has multiple well separated maxima and degeneracies. Second, the computation of the theory predictions is very time consuming. A single posterior evaluation requires O(1s), and a few million evaluations are needed. Population Monte Carlo (PMC) provides a solution to both issues; a mixture density is iteratively adapted to the posterior, and samples are drawn in a massively parallel way using importance sampling. The major shortcoming of PMC is the need for cogent knowledge of the posterior at the initial stage. In an effort towards a general black-box Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, we present a new method to extract the necessary information in a reliable and automatic manner from Markov chains with the help of hierarchical clustering. Exploiting the latest 2012 measurements, the fit reveals a flipped-sign solution in addition to a standard-model-like solution for the couplings Ci. The two solutions are related

  9. Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis of Biased Beliefs and Distributional Other-Regarding Preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeroen Weesie

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the relationship between an actor’s beliefs about others’ other-regarding (social preferences and her own other-regarding preferences, using an “avant-garde” hierarchical Bayesian method. We estimate two distributional other-regarding preference parameters, α and β, of actors using incentivized choice data in binary Dictator Games. Simultaneously, we estimate the distribution of actors’ beliefs about others α and β, conditional on actors’ own α and β, with incentivized belief elicitation. We demonstrate the benefits of the Bayesian method compared to it’s hierarchical frequentist counterparts. Results show a positive association between an actor’s own (α; β and her beliefs about average(α; β in the population. The association between own preferences and the variance in beliefs about others’ preferences in the population, however, is curvilinear for α and insignificant for β. These results are partially consistent with the cone effect [1,2] which is described in detail below. Because in the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium concept, beliefs and own preferences are assumed to be independent, these results cast doubt on the application of the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium concept to experimental data.

  10. Bayesian analysis of spatial point processes in the neighbourhood of Voronoi networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skare, Øivind; Møller, Jesper; Vedel Jensen, Eva B.

    A model for an inhomogeneous Poisson process with high intensity near the edges of a Voronoi tessellation in 2D or 3D is proposed. The model is analysed in a Bayesian setting with priors on nuclei of the Voronoi tessellation and other model parameters. An MCMC algorithm is constructed to sample f...

  11. Bayesian analysis of spatial point processes in the neighbourhood of Voronoi networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skare, Øivind; Møller, Jesper; Jensen, Eva B. Vedel

    2007-01-01

    A model for an inhomogeneous Poisson process with high intensity near the edges of a Voronoi tessellation in 2D or 3D is proposed. The model is analysed in a Bayesian setting with priors on nuclei of the Voronoi tessellation and other model parameters. An MCMC algorithm is constructed to sample f...

  12. Reliability Analysis of a Glacier Lake Warning System Using a Bayesian Net

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturny, Rouven A.; Bründl, Michael

    2013-04-01

    Beside structural mitigation measures like avalanche defense structures, dams and galleries, warning and alarm systems have become important measures for dealing with Alpine natural hazards. Integrating them into risk mitigation strategies and comparing their effectiveness with structural measures requires quantification of the reliability of these systems. However, little is known about how reliability of warning systems can be quantified and which methods are suitable for comparing their contribution to risk reduction with that of structural mitigation measures. We present a reliability analysis of a warning system located in Grindelwald, Switzerland. The warning system was built for warning and protecting residents and tourists from glacier outburst floods as consequence of a rapid drain of the glacier lake. We have set up a Bayesian Net (BN, BPN) that allowed for a qualitative and quantitative reliability analysis. The Conditional Probability Tables (CPT) of the BN were determined according to manufacturer's reliability data for each component of the system as well as by assigning weights for specific BN nodes accounting for information flows and decision-making processes of the local safety service. The presented results focus on the two alerting units 'visual acoustic signal' (VAS) and 'alerting of the intervention entities' (AIE). For the summer of 2009, the reliability was determined to be 94 % for the VAS and 83 % for the AEI. The probability of occurrence of a major event was calculated as 0.55 % per day resulting in an overall reliability of 99.967 % for the VAS and 99.906 % for the AEI. We concluded that a failure of the VAS alerting unit would be the consequence of a simultaneous failure of the four probes located in the lake and the gorge. Similarly, we deduced that the AEI would fail either if there were a simultaneous connectivity loss of the mobile and fixed network in Grindelwald, an Internet access loss or a failure of the regional operations

  13. Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asad Ali

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an  overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.

  14. Coalescence and Anti-Coalescence Interference of Two-Photon Wavepacket in a Beam Splitter

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Kai-Ge; YANG Guo-Jian

    2004-01-01

    @@ We study theoretically the interference of a two-photon wavepacket in a beam splitter. We find that the spectrum symmetry for the two-photon wavepacket dominates the perfect coalescence and anti-coalescence interference.The coalescence interference is unrelated to photon entanglement. Only the anti-coalescence interference has evidence of photon entanglement. We prove that the two-photon wavepacket with an anti-symmetric spectrum is transparent to pass the 50/50 beam splitter, showing perfect anti-coalescence interference.

  15. Using sound to study bubble coalescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kracht, W; Finch, J A

    2009-04-01

    Frothers are surfactants used in flotation to aid generation of small bubbles, an effect attributed to coalescence prevention. Studying coalescence at the moment of bubble creation is a challenge because events occur over a time frame of milliseconds. This communication introduces a novel acoustic technique to study coalescence as bubbles are generated at a capillary. The sound signal was linked to bubble formation and coalescence events using high-speed cinematography. The technique has the resolution to detect events that occur within 1-2 ms. The results show that for common flotation frothers and n-alcohols (C(4)-C(8)) coalescence prevention is not simply related to surface activity. A total stress model is used to give a qualitative explanation to the action observed. Results for salt (sodium chloride) are included for comparison. PMID:19128806

  16. A Bayesian ridge regression analysis of congestion's impact on urban expressway safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Qi; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung

    2016-03-01

    With the rapid growth of traffic in urban areas, concerns about congestion and traffic safety have been heightened. This study leveraged both Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) system and Microwave Vehicle Detection System (MVDS) installed on an expressway in Central Florida to explore how congestion impacts the crash occurrence in urban areas. Multiple congestion measures from the two systems were developed. To ensure more precise estimates of the congestion's effects, the traffic data were aggregated into peak and non-peak hours. Multicollinearity among traffic parameters was examined. The results showed the presence of multicollinearity especially during peak hours. As a response, ridge regression was introduced to cope with this issue. Poisson models with uncorrelated random effects, correlated random effects, and both correlated random effects and random parameters were constructed within the Bayesian framework. It was proven that correlated random effects could significantly enhance model performance. The random parameters model has similar goodness-of-fit compared with the model with only correlated random effects. However, by accounting for the unobserved heterogeneity, more variables were found to be significantly related to crash frequency. The models indicated that congestion increased crash frequency during peak hours while during non-peak hours it was not a major crash contributing factor. Using the random parameter model, the three congestion measures were compared. It was found that all congestion indicators had similar effects while Congestion Index (CI) derived from MVDS data was a better congestion indicator for safety analysis. Also, analyses showed that the segments with higher congestion intensity could not only increase property damage only (PDO) crashes, but also more severe crashes. In addition, the issues regarding the necessity to incorporate specific congestion indicator for congestion's effects on safety and to take care of the

  17. Multi-site identification of a distributed hydrological nitrogen model using Bayesian uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Sanyuan; Jomaa, Seifeddine; Büttner, Olaf; Meon, Günter; Rode, Michael

    2015-10-01

    For capturing spatial variations of runoff and nutrient fluxes attributed to catchment heterogeneity, multi-site hydrological water quality monitoring strategies are increasingly put into practice. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of spatially distributed streamflow and streamwater Inorganic Nitrogen (IN) concentration observations on the identification of a continuous time, spatially semi-distributed and process-based hydrological water quality model HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment). A Bayesian inference based approach DREAM(ZS) (DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metrololis algorithm) was combined with HYPE to implement model optimisation and uncertainty analysis on streamflow and streamwater IN concentration simulations at a nested meso scale catchment in central Germany. To this end, a 10-year period (1994-1999 for calibration and 1999-2004 for validation) was utilised. We compared the parameters' posterior distributions, modelling performance using the best estimated parameter set and 95% prediction confidence intervals at catchment outlet for the calibration period that were derived from single-site calibration (SSC) and multi-site calibration (MSC) modes. For SSC, streamflow and streamwater IN concentration observations at only the catchment outlet were used. While, for MSC, streamflow and streamwater IN concentration observations from both catchment outlet and two internal sites were considered. Results showed that the uncertainty intervals of hydrological water quality parameters' posterior distributions estimated from MSC, were narrower than those obtained from SSC. In addition, it was found that the MSC outperformed SSC on streamwater IN concentration simulations at internal sites for both calibration and validation periods, while the influence on streamflow modelling performance was small. This can be explained by the "nested" nature of the catchment and high correlation between discharge observations from different sites

  18. Apples and oranges: avoiding different priors in Bayesian DNA sequence analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Posch Stefan

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background One of the challenges of bioinformatics remains the recognition of short signal sequences in genomic DNA such as donor or acceptor splice sites, splicing enhancers or silencers, translation initiation sites, transcription start sites, transcription factor binding sites, nucleosome binding sites, miRNA binding sites, or insulator binding sites. During the last decade, a wealth of algorithms for the recognition of such DNA sequences has been developed and compared with the goal of improving their performance and to deepen our understanding of the underlying cellular processes. Most of these algorithms are based on statistical models belonging to the family of Markov random fields such as position weight matrix models, weight array matrix models, Markov models of higher order, or moral Bayesian networks. While in many comparative studies different learning principles or different statistical models have been compared, the influence of choosing different prior distributions for the model parameters when using different learning principles has been overlooked, and possibly lead to questionable conclusions. Results With the goal of allowing direct comparisons of different learning principles for models from the family of Markov random fields based on the same a-priori information, we derive a generalization of the commonly-used product-Dirichlet prior. We find that the derived prior behaves like a Gaussian prior close to the maximum and like a Laplace prior in the far tails. In two case studies, we illustrate the utility of the derived prior for a direct comparison of different learning principles with different models for the recognition of binding sites of the transcription factor Sp1 and human donor splice sites. Conclusions We find that comparisons of different learning principles using the same a-priori information can lead to conclusions different from those of previous studies in which the effect resulting from different

  19. Bayesian Analysis of Hmi Images and Comparison to Tsi Variations and MWO Image Observables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, D. G.; Ulrich, R. K.; Beck, J.; Tran, T. V.

    2015-12-01

    We have previously applied the Bayesian automatic classification system AutoClass to solar magnetogram and intensity images from the 150 Foot Solar Tower at Mount Wilson to identify classes of solar surface features associated with variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) and, using those identifications, modeled TSI time series with improved accuracy (r > 0.96). (Ulrich, et al, 2010) AutoClass identifies classes by a two-step process in which it: (1) finds, without human supervision, a set of class definitions based on specified attributes of a sample of the image data pixels, such as magnetic field and intensity in the case of MWO images, and (2) applies the class definitions thus found to new data sets to identify automatically in them the classes found in the sample set. HMI high resolution images capture four observables-magnetic field, continuum intensity, line depth and line width-in contrast to MWO's two observables-magnetic field and intensity. In this study, we apply AutoClass to the HMI observables for images from June, 2010 to December, 2014 to identify solar surface feature classes. We use contemporaneous TSI measurements to determine whether and how variations in the HMI classes are related to TSI variations and compare the characteristic statistics of the HMI classes to those found from MWO images. We also attempt to derive scale factors between the HMI and MWO magnetic and intensity observables.The ability to categorize automatically surface features in the HMI images holds out the promise of consistent, relatively quick and manageable analysis of the large quantity of data available in these images. Given that the classes found in MWO images using AutoClass have been found to improve modeling of TSI, application of AutoClass to the more complex HMI images should enhance understanding of the physical processes at work in solar surface features and their implications for the solar-terrestrial environment.Ulrich, R.K., Parker, D, Bertello, L. and

  20. Stellar magnetic field parameters from a Bayesian analysis of high-resolution spectropolarimetric observations

    CERN Document Server

    Petit, V

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we describe a Bayesian statistical method designed to infer the magnetic properties of stars observed using high-resolution circular spectropolarimetry in the context of large surveys. This approach is well suited for analysing stars for which the stellar rotation period is not known, and therefore the rotational phases of the observations are ambiguous. The model assumes that the magnetic observations correspond to a dipole oblique rotator, a situation commonly encountered in intermediate and high-mass stars. Using reasonable assumptions regarding the model parameter prior probability density distributions, the Bayesian algorithm determines the posterior probability densities corresponding to the surface magnetic field geometry and strength by performing a comparison between the observed and computed Stokes V profiles. Based on the results of numerical simulations, we conclude that this method yields a useful estimate of the surface dipole field strength based on a small number (i.e. 1 or 2) of...

  1. A Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis of Chinese fossil-fuel electricity generation companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper analyses the technical efficiency of Chinese fossil-fuel electricity generation companies from 1999 to 2011, using a Bayesian stochastic frontier model. The results reveal that efficiency varies among the fossil-fuel electricity generation companies that were analysed. We also focus on the factors of size, location, government ownership and mixed sources of electricity generation for the fossil-fuel electricity generation companies, and also examine their effects on the efficiency of these companies. Policy implications are derived. - Highlights: • We analyze the efficiency of 27 quoted Chinese fossil-fuel electricity generation companies during 1999–2011. • We adopt a Bayesian stochastic frontier model taking into consideration the identified heterogeneity. • With reform background in Chinese energy industry, we propose four hypotheses and check their influence on efficiency. • Big size, coastal location, government control and hydro energy sources all have increased costs

  2. PARALLEL ADAPTIVE MULTILEVEL SAMPLING ALGORITHMS FOR THE BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS

    KAUST Repository

    Prudencio, Ernesto

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, Bayesian model updating techniques based on measured data have been applied to many engineering and applied science problems. At the same time, parallel computational platforms are becoming increasingly more powerful and are being used more frequently by the engineering and scientific communities. Bayesian techniques usually require the evaluation of multi-dimensional integrals related to the posterior probability density function (PDF) of uncertain model parameters. The fact that such integrals cannot be computed analytically motivates the research of stochastic simulation methods for sampling posterior PDFs. One such algorithm is the adaptive multilevel stochastic simulation algorithm (AMSSA). In this paper we discuss the parallelization of AMSSA, formulating the necessary load balancing step as a binary integer programming problem. We present a variety of results showing the effectiveness of load balancing on the overall performance of AMSSA in a parallel computational environment.

  3. A tutorial on Bayesian bivariate meta-analysis of mixed binary-continuous outcomes with missing treatment effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajic-Veljanoski, Olga; Cheung, Angela M; Bayoumi, Ahmed M; Tomlinson, George

    2016-05-30

    Bivariate random-effects meta-analysis (BVMA) is a method of data synthesis that accounts for treatment effects measured on two outcomes. BVMA gives more precise estimates of the population mean and predicted values than two univariate random-effects meta-analyses (UVMAs). BVMA also addresses bias from incomplete reporting of outcomes. A few tutorials have covered technical details of BVMA of categorical or continuous outcomes. Limited guidance is available on how to analyze datasets that include trials with mixed continuous-binary outcomes where treatment effects on one outcome or the other are not reported. Given the advantages of Bayesian BVMA for handling missing outcomes, we present a tutorial for Bayesian BVMA of incompletely reported treatment effects on mixed bivariate outcomes. This step-by-step approach can serve as a model for our intended audience, the methodologist familiar with Bayesian meta-analysis, looking for practical advice on fitting bivariate models. To facilitate application of the proposed methods, we include our WinBUGS code. As an example, we use aggregate-level data from published trials to demonstrate the estimation of the effects of vitamin K and bisphosphonates on two correlated bone outcomes, fracture, and bone mineral density. We present datasets where reporting of the pairs of treatment effects on both outcomes was 'partially' complete (i.e., pairs completely reported in some trials), and we outline steps for modeling the incompletely reported data. To assess what is gained from the additional work required by BVMA, we compare the resulting estimates to those from separate UVMAs. We discuss methodological findings and make four recommendations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26553369

  4. Bayesian Analysis of Hazard Regression Models under Order Restrictions on Covariate Effects and Ageing

    OpenAIRE

    Bhattacharjee, Arnab; Bhattacharjee, Madhuchhanda

    2007-01-01

    We propose Bayesian inference in hazard regression models where the baseline hazard is unknown, covariate effects are possibly age-varying (non-proportional), and there is multiplicative frailty with arbitrary distribution. Our framework incorporates a wide variety of order restrictions on covariate dependence and duration dependence (ageing). We propose estimation and evaluation of age-varying covariate effects when covariate dependence is monotone rather than proportional. In particular, we...

  5. A HYBRID APPROACH FOR RELIABILITY ANALYSIS BASED ON ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP) AND BAYESIAN NETWORK (BN)

    OpenAIRE

    Muhammad eZubair

    2014-01-01

    The investigation of the nuclear accidents reveals that the accumulation of various technical and nontechnical lapses compounded the nuclear disaster. By using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Bayesian Network (BN) the present research signifies the technical and nontechnical issues of nuclear accidents. The study exposed that besides technical fixes such as enhanced engineering safety features and better siting choices, the critical ingredient for safe operation of nuclear reactors lie i...

  6. Stellar magnetic field parameters from a Bayesian analysis of high-resolution spectropolarimetric observations

    OpenAIRE

    Petit, V.; Wade, G. A.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we describe a Bayesian statistical method designed to infer the magnetic properties of stars observed using high-resolution circular spectropolarimetry in the context of large surveys. This approach is well suited for analysing stars for which the stellar rotation period is not known, and therefore the rotational phases of the observations are ambiguous. The model assumes that the magnetic observations correspond to a dipole oblique rotator, a situation commonly encountered in i...

  7. Growth of Screen-Detected Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms in Men: A Bayesian Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Sherer, E A; Bies, R R; Clancy, P; Norman, P. E.; Golledge, J

    2012-01-01

    There is considerable interindividual variability in the growth of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs), but an individual's growth observations, risk factors, and biomarkers could potentially be used to tailor surveillance. To assess the potential for tailoring surveillance, this study determined the accuracy of individualized predictions of AAA size at the next surveillance observation. A hierarchical Bayesian model was fitted to a total of 1,732 serial ultrasound measurements from 299 men in ...

  8. A Bayesian Analysis of GPS Guidance System in Precision Agriculture: The Role of Expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Khanal, Aditya R; Mishra, Ashok K.; Lambert, Dayton M.; Paudel, Krishna P.

    2013-01-01

    Farmer’s post adoption responses about technology are important in continuation and diffusion of a technology in precision agriculture. We studied farmer’s frequency of application decisions of GPS guidance system, after adoption. Using a Cotton grower’s precision farming survey in the U.S. and Bayesian approaches, our study suggests that ‘meeting expectation’ plays an important positive role. Farmer’s income level, farm size, and farming occupation are other important factors in modeling GPS...

  9. On the choice of prior density for the Bayesian analysis of pedigree structure

    OpenAIRE

    Almudevar, Anthony; LaCombe, Jason

    2011-01-01

    This article is concerned with the choice of structural prior density for use in a fully Bayesian approach to pedigree inference. It is found that the choice of prior has considerable influence on the accuracy of the estimation. To guide this choice, a scale invariance property is introduced. Under a structural prior with this property, the marginal prior distribution of the local properties of a pedigree node (number of parents, offspring, etc.) does not depend on the number of nodes in the ...

  10. Bayesian meta-analysis for identifying periodically expressed genes in fission yeast cell cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Fan, Xiaodan; Pyne, Saumyadipta; Liu, Jun S

    2010-01-01

    The effort to identify genes with periodic expression during the cell cycle from genome-wide microarray time series data has been ongoing for a decade. However, the lack of rigorous modeling of periodic expression as well as the lack of a comprehensive model for integrating information across genes and experiments has impaired the effort for the accurate identification of periodically expressed genes. To address the problem, we introduce a Bayesian model to integrate multiple independent micr...

  11. A Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of forest fires in Portugal

    OpenAIRE

    Silva, Giovani Loiola; Dias, Maria Inês

    2013-01-01

    In the last decade, forest fires have become a natural disaster in Portugal, causing great forest devastation, leading to both economic and environmental losses and putting at risk populations and the livelihoods of the forest itself. In this work, we present Bayesian hierarchical models to analyze spatio-temporal fire data on the proportion of burned area in Portugal, by municipalities and over three decades. Mixture of distributions was employed to model jointly the proportion of area burn...

  12. Uncertainty Reduction using Bayesian Inference and Sensitivity Analysis: A Sequential Approach to the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankararaman, Shankar

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a computational framework for uncertainty characterization and propagation, and sensitivity analysis under the presence of aleatory and epistemic un- certainty, and develops a rigorous methodology for efficient refinement of epistemic un- certainty by identifying important epistemic variables that significantly affect the overall performance of an engineering system. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (NASA-LUQC) problem that deals with uncertainty analysis of a generic transport model (GTM). First, Bayesian inference is used to infer subsystem-level epistemic quantities using the subsystem-level model and corresponding data. Second, tools of variance-based global sensitivity analysis are used to identify four important epistemic variables (this limitation specified in the NASA-LUQC is reflective of practical engineering situations where not all epistemic variables can be refined due to time/budget constraints) that significantly affect system-level performance. The most significant contribution of this paper is the development of the sequential refine- ment methodology, where epistemic variables for refinement are not identified all-at-once. Instead, only one variable is first identified, and then, Bayesian inference and global sensi- tivity calculations are repeated to identify the next important variable. This procedure is continued until all 4 variables are identified and the refinement in the system-level perfor- mance is computed. The advantages of the proposed sequential refinement methodology over the all-at-once uncertainty refinement approach are explained, and then applied to the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge problem.

  13. Characterization of solids deposited on the modular caustic-side solvent extraction unit (MCU) coalescer media removed in October 2014

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fondeur, F. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2016-03-01

    In February 2015, Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) received a Strip Effluent (SE) coalescer (FLT-304) from MCU. That coalescer was first installed at MCU in July 2014 and removed in October 2014. While processing approximately 31,400 gallons of strip solution, the pressure drop steadily increased from 1 psi to beyond the administrative limit of 20 psi. The physical and chemical analysis was conducted on this coalescer to determine the mechanism that led to the plugging of this coalescer. Characterization of this coalescer revealed the adsorption of organic containing amines as well as MCU modifier. The amines are probably from the decomposition of the suppressor (TiDG) as well as from bacteria. This adsorption may have changed the surface energetics (characteristics) of the coalescer fibers and therefore, their wetting behavior. A very small amount of inorganic solids were found to have deposited on this coalescer (possibly an artifact of cleaning the coalescer with Boric acid. However, we believe that inorganic precipitation, as has been seen in the past, did not play a role in the high pressure drop rise of this coalescer. With regards to the current practice of reducing the radioactive content of the SE coalescer, it is recommended that future SE coalescer should be flushed with 10 mM boric acid which is currently used at MCU. Plugging of the SE coalescer was most likely due to the formation and accumulation of a water-in-oil emulsion that reduced the overall porosity of the coalescer. There is also evidence that a bimodal oil particle distribution may have entered and deposited in the coalescer and caused the initial increase in pressure drop.

  14. An imprecise Dirichlet model for Bayesian analysis of failure data including right-censored observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper is intended to make researchers in reliability theory aware of a recently introduced Bayesian model with imprecise prior distributions for statistical inference on failure data, that can also be considered as a robust Bayesian model. The model consists of a multinomial distribution with Dirichlet priors, making the approach basically nonparametric. New results for the model are presented, related to right-censored observations, where estimation based on this model is closely related to the product-limit estimator, which is an important statistical method to deal with reliability or survival data including right-censored observations. As for the product-limit estimator, the model considered in this paper aims at not using any information other than that provided by observed data, but our model fits into the robust Bayesian context which has the advantage that all inferences can be based on probabilities or expectations, or bounds for probabilities or expectations. The model uses a finite partition of the time-axis, and as such it is also related to life-tables

  15. Uncertainty Analysis in Fatigue Life Prediction of Gas Turbine Blades Using Bayesian Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yan-Feng; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Li, Jing; Peng, Weiwen; Huang, Hong-Zhong

    2015-12-01

    This paper investigates Bayesian model selection for fatigue life estimation of gas turbine blades considering model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. Fatigue life estimation of gas turbine blades is a critical issue for the operation and health management of modern aircraft engines. Since lots of life prediction models have been presented to predict the fatigue life of gas turbine blades, model uncertainty and model selection among these models have consequently become an important issue in the lifecycle management of turbine blades. In this paper, fatigue life estimation is carried out by considering model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty simultaneously. It is formulated as the joint posterior distribution of a fatigue life prediction model and its model parameters using Bayesian inference method. Bayes factor is incorporated to implement the model selection with the quantified model uncertainty. Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used to facilitate the calculation. A pictorial framework and a step-by-step procedure of the Bayesian inference method for fatigue life estimation considering model uncertainty are presented. Fatigue life estimation of a gas turbine blade is implemented to demonstrate the proposed method.

  16. Scaling Limits of Coalescent Processes Near Time Zero

    OpenAIRE

    Sengul, Bati

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we obtain scaling limits of $\\Lambda$-coalescents near time zero under a regularly varying assumption. In particular this covers the case of Kingman's coalescent and beta coalescents. The limiting processes are coalescents with infinite mass, obtained geometrically as tangent cones of Evans metric space associated with the coalescent. In the case of Kingman's coalescent we are able to obtain a simple construction of the limiting space using a two-sided Brownian motion.

  17. Approximate Bayesian Computation for Astronomical Model Analysis: A Case Study in Galaxy Demographics and Morphological Transformation at High Redshift

    CERN Document Server

    Cameron, E

    2012-01-01

    "Approximate Bayesian Computation" (ABC) represents a powerful methodology for the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable-the latter condition rendering useless the standard machinery of tractable likelihood-based, Bayesian statistical inference (e.g. conventional Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation; MCMC). In this article we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high redshift galaxies. To this end we develop, first, a stochastic model for the competing processes of merging and secular evolution in the early Universe; and second, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of the first generation of massive (M_gal > 10^11 M_sun) galaxies (at 1.5 < z < 3) in the CANDELS/EGS dataset we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. The "Sequent...

  18. Joint High-Dimensional Bayesian Variable and Covariance Selection with an Application to eQTL Analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Bhadra, Anindya

    2013-04-22

    We describe a Bayesian technique to (a) perform a sparse joint selection of significant predictor variables and significant inverse covariance matrix elements of the response variables in a high-dimensional linear Gaussian sparse seemingly unrelated regression (SSUR) setting and (b) perform an association analysis between the high-dimensional sets of predictors and responses in such a setting. To search the high-dimensional model space, where both the number of predictors and the number of possibly correlated responses can be larger than the sample size, we demonstrate that a marginalization-based collapsed Gibbs sampler, in combination with spike and slab type of priors, offers a computationally feasible and efficient solution. As an example, we apply our method to an expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis on publicly available single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and gene expression data for humans where the primary interest lies in finding the significant associations between the sets of SNPs and possibly correlated genetic transcripts. Our method also allows for inference on the sparse interaction network of the transcripts (response variables) after accounting for the effect of the SNPs (predictor variables). We exploit properties of Gaussian graphical models to make statements concerning conditional independence of the responses. Our method compares favorably to existing Bayesian approaches developed for this purpose. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  19. Joint high-dimensional Bayesian variable and covariance selection with an application to eQTL analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhadra, Anindya; Mallick, Bani K

    2013-06-01

    We describe a Bayesian technique to (a) perform a sparse joint selection of significant predictor variables and significant inverse covariance matrix elements of the response variables in a high-dimensional linear Gaussian sparse seemingly unrelated regression (SSUR) setting and (b) perform an association analysis between the high-dimensional sets of predictors and responses in such a setting. To search the high-dimensional model space, where both the number of predictors and the number of possibly correlated responses can be larger than the sample size, we demonstrate that a marginalization-based collapsed Gibbs sampler, in combination with spike and slab type of priors, offers a computationally feasible and efficient solution. As an example, we apply our method to an expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis on publicly available single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and gene expression data for humans where the primary interest lies in finding the significant associations between the sets of SNPs and possibly correlated genetic transcripts. Our method also allows for inference on the sparse interaction network of the transcripts (response variables) after accounting for the effect of the SNPs (predictor variables). We exploit properties of Gaussian graphical models to make statements concerning conditional independence of the responses. Our method compares favorably to existing Bayesian approaches developed for this purpose. PMID:23607608

  20. Order-Constrained Reference Priors with Implications for Bayesian Isotonic Regression, Analysis of Covariance and Spatial Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Maozhen

    Selecting an appropriate prior distribution is a fundamental issue in Bayesian Statistics. In this dissertation, under the framework provided by Berger and Bernardo, I derive the reference priors for several models which include: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)/Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) models with a categorical variable under common ordering constraints, the conditionally autoregressive (CAR) models and the simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models with a spatial autoregression parameter rho considered. The performances of reference priors for ANOVA/ANCOVA models are evaluated by simulation studies with comparisons to Jeffreys' prior and Least Squares Estimation (LSE). The priors are then illustrated in a Bayesian model of the "Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in New Mexico" data, where the relationship between the type 2 diabetes risk (through Hemoglobin A1c) and different smoking levels is investigated. In both simulation studies and real data set modeling, the reference priors that incorporate internal order information show good performances and can be used as default priors. The reference priors for the CAR and SAR models are also illustrated in the "1999 SAT State Average Verbal Scores" data with a comparison to a Uniform prior distribution. Due to the complexity of the reference priors for both CAR and SAR models, only a portion (12 states in the Midwest) of the original data set is considered. The reference priors can give a different marginal posterior distribution compared to a Uniform prior, which provides an alternative for prior specifications for areal data in Spatial statistics.

  1. Coalescent histories for caterpillar-like families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, Noah A

    2013-01-01

    A coalescent history is an assignment of branches of a gene tree to branches of a species tree on which coalescences in the gene tree occur. The number of coalescent histories for a pair consisting of a labeled gene tree topology and a labeled species tree topology is important in gene tree probability computations, and more generally, in studying evolutionary possibilities for gene trees on species trees. Defining the Tr-caterpillar-like family as a sequence of n-taxon trees constructed by replacing the r-taxon subtree of n-taxon caterpillars by a specific r-taxon labeled topology Tr, we examine the number of coalescent histories for caterpillar-like families with matching gene tree and species tree labeled topologies. For each Tr with size r≤8, we compute the number of coalescent histories for n-taxon trees in the Tr-caterpillar-like family. Next, as n→∞, we find that the limiting ratio of the numbers of coalescent histories for the Tr family and caterpillars themselves is correlated with the number of labeled histories for Tr. The results support a view that large numbers of coalescent histories occur when a tree has both a relatively balanced subtree and a high tree depth, contributing to deeper understanding of the combinatorics of gene trees and species trees. PMID:24524157

  2. Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)

  3. The impact of ancestral population size and incomplete lineage sorting on Bayesian estimation of species divergence times

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Konstantinos ANGELIS; Mario DOS REIS

    2015-01-01

    Although the effects of the coalescent process on sequence divergence and genealogies are well understood, the vir-tual majority of studies that use molecular sequences to estimate times of divergence among species have failed to account for the coalescent process. Here we study the impact of ancestral population size and incomplete lineage sorting on Bayesian estimates of species divergence times under the molecular clock when the inference model ignores the coalescent process. Using a combi-nation of mathematical analysis, computer simulations and analysis of real data, we find that the errors on estimates of times and the molecular rate can be substantial when ancestral populations are large and when there is substantial incomplete lineage sort-ing. For example, in a simple three-species case, we find that if the most precise fossil calibration is placed on the root of the phylogeny, the age of the internal node is overestimated, while if the most precise calibration is placed on the internal node, then the age of the root is underestimated. In both cases, the molecular rate is overestimated. Using simulations on a phylogeny of nine species, we show that substantial errors in time and rate estimates can be obtained even when dating ancient divergence events. We analyse the hominoid phylogeny and show that estimates of the neutral mutation rate obtained while ignoring the coalescent are too high. Using a coalescent-based technique to obtain geological times of divergence, we obtain estimates of the mutation rate that are within experimental estimates and we also obtain substantially older divergence times within the phylogeny [Current Zoology 61 (5): 874–885, 2015].

  4. Uncertainty analysis of pollutant build-up modelling based on a Bayesian weighted least squares approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haddad, Khaled [School of Computing, Engineering and Mathematics, University of Western Sydney, Building XB, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW 2751 (Australia); Egodawatta, Prasanna [Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane 4001 (Australia); Rahman, Ataur [School of Computing, Engineering and Mathematics, University of Western Sydney, Building XB, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW 2751 (Australia); Goonetilleke, Ashantha, E-mail: a.goonetilleke@qut.edu.au [Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane 4001 (Australia)

    2013-04-01

    Reliable pollutant build-up prediction plays a critical role in the accuracy of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes. However, water quality data collection is resource demanding compared to streamflow data monitoring, where a greater quantity of data is generally available. Consequently, available water quality datasets span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data. Therefore, the ability to take due consideration of the variability associated with pollutant processes and natural phenomena is constrained. This in turn gives rise to uncertainty in the modelling outcomes as research has shown that pollutant loadings on catchment surfaces and rainfall within an area can vary considerably over space and time scales. Therefore, the assessment of model uncertainty is an essential element of informed decision making in urban stormwater management. This paper presents the application of a range of regression approaches such as ordinary least squares regression, weighted least squares regression and Bayesian weighted least squares regression for the estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant build-up prediction using limited datasets. The study outcomes confirmed that the use of ordinary least squares regression with fixed model inputs and limited observational data may not provide realistic estimates. The stochastic nature of the dependent and independent variables need to be taken into consideration in pollutant build-up prediction. It was found that the use of the Bayesian approach along with the Monte Carlo simulation technique provides a powerful tool, which attempts to make the best use of the available knowledge in prediction and thereby presents a practical solution to counteract the limitations which are otherwise imposed on water quality modelling. - Highlights: ► Water quality data spans short time scales leading to significant model uncertainty. ► Assessment of uncertainty essential for informed decision making in water

  5. Bayesian survival analysis modeling applied to sensory shelf life of foods

    OpenAIRE

    Calle, M. Luz; Hough, Guillermo; Curia, Ana; Gómez, Guadalupe

    2006-01-01

    Data from sensory shelf-life studies can be analyzed using survival statistical methods. The objective of this research was to introduce Bayesian methodology to sensory shelf-life studies and discuss its advantages in relation to classical (frequentist) methods. A specific algorithm which incorporates the interval censored data from shelf-life studies is presented. Calculations were applied to whole-fat and fat-free yogurt, each tasted by 80 consumers who answered ‘‘yes’’ or ‘‘no’’ t...

  6. Mechanisms of motivational interviewing in health promotion: a Bayesian mediation analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pirlott Angela G

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Counselor behaviors that mediate the efficacy of motivational interviewing (MI are not well understood, especially when applied to health behavior promotion. We hypothesized that client change talk mediates the relationship between counselor variables and subsequent client behavior change. Methods Purposeful sampling identified individuals from a prospective randomized worksite trial using an MI intervention to promote firefighters’ healthy diet and regular exercise that increased dietary intake of fruits and vegetables (n = 21 or did not increase intake of fruits and vegetables (n = 22. MI interactions were coded using the Motivational Interviewing Skill Code (MISC 2.1 to categorize counselor and firefighter verbal utterances. Both Bayesian and frequentist mediation analyses were used to investigate whether client change talk mediated the relationship between counselor skills and behavior change. Results Counselors’ global spirit, empathy, and direction and MI-consistent behavioral counts (e.g., reflections, open questions, affirmations, emphasize control significantly correlated with firefighters’ total client change talk utterances (rs = 0.42, 0.40, 0.30, and 0.61, respectively, which correlated significantly with their fruit and vegetable intake increase (r = 0.33. Both Bayesian and frequentist mediation analyses demonstrated that findings were consistent with hypotheses, such that total client change talk mediated the relationship between counselor’s skills—MI-consistent behaviors [Bayesian mediated effect: αβ = .06 (.03, 95% CI = .02, .12] and MI spirit [Bayesian mediated effect: αβ = .06 (.03, 95% CI = .01, .13]—and increased fruit and vegetable consumption. Conclusion Motivational interviewing is a resource- and time-intensive intervention, and is currently being applied in many arenas. Previous research has identified the importance of counselor behaviors and client

  7. Comparing the treatment of uncertainty in Bayesian networks and fuzzy expert systems used for a human reliability analysis application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The use of expert systems can be helpful to improve the transparency and repeatability of assessments in areas of risk analysis with limited data available. In this field, human reliability analysis (HRA) is no exception, and, in particular, dependence analysis is an HRA task strongly based on analyst judgement. The analysis of dependence among Human Failure Events refers to the assessment of the effect of an earlier human failure on the probability of the subsequent ones. This paper analyses and compares two expert systems, based on Bayesian Belief Networks and Fuzzy Logic (a Fuzzy Expert System, FES), respectively. The comparison shows that a BBN approach should be preferred in all the cases characterized by quantifiable uncertainty in the input (i.e. when probability distributions can be assigned to describe the input parameters uncertainty), since it provides a satisfactory representation of the uncertainty and its output is directly interpretable for use within PSA. On the other hand, in cases characterized by very limited knowledge, an analyst may feel constrained by the probabilistic framework, which requires assigning probability distributions for describing uncertainty. In these cases, the FES seems to lead to a more transparent representation of the input and output uncertainty. - Highlights: • We analyse treatment of uncertainty in two expert systems. • We compare a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) and a Fuzzy Expert System (FES). • We focus on the input assessment, inference engines and output assessment. • We focus on an application problem of interest for human reliability analysis. • We emphasize the application rather than math to reach non-BBN or FES specialists

  8. Analysis of axle and vehicle load properties through Bayesian Networks based on Weigh-in-Motion data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weigh-in-Motion (WIM) systems are used, among other applications, in pavement and bridge reliability. The system measures quantities such as individual axle load, vehicular loads, vehicle speed, vehicle length and number of axles. Because of the nature of traffic configuration, the quantities measured are evidently regarded as random variables. The dependence structure of the data of such complex systems as the traffic systems is also very complex. It is desirable to be able to represent the complex multidimensional-distribution with models where the dependence may be explained in a clear way and different locations where the system operates may be treated simultaneously. Bayesian Networks (BNs) are models that comply with the characteristics listed above. In this paper we discuss BN models and results concerning their ability to adequately represent the data. The paper places attention on the construction and use of the models. We discuss applications of the proposed BNs in reliability analysis. In particular we show how the proposed BNs may be used for computing design values for individual axles, vehicle weight and maximum bending moments of bridges in certain time intervals. These estimates have been used to advise authorities with respect to bridge reliability. Directions as to how the model may be extended to include locations where the WIM system does not operate are given whenever possible. These ideas benefit from structured expert judgment techniques previously used to quantify Hybrid Bayesian Networks (HBNs) with success

  9. Bayesian probabilistic sensitivity analysis of Markov models for natural history of a disease: an application for cervical cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giulia Carreras

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available

    Background: parameter uncertainty in the Markov model’s description of a disease course was addressed. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA is now considered the only tool that properly permits parameter uncertainty’s examination. This consists in sampling values from the parameter’s probability distributions.

    Methods: Markov models fitted with microsimulation were considered and methods for carrying out a PSA on transition probabilities were studied. Two Bayesian solutions were developed: for each row of the modeled transition matrix the prior distribution was assumed as a product of Beta or a Dirichlet. The two solutions differ in the source of information: several different sources for each transition in the Beta approach and a single source for each transition from a given health state in the Dirichlet. The two methods were applied to a simple cervical cancer’s model.

    Results : differences between posterior estimates from the two methods were negligible. Results showed that the prior variability highly influence the posterior distribution.

    Conclusions: the novelty of this work is the Bayesian approach that integrates the two distributions with a product of Binomial distributions likelihood. Such methods could be also applied to cohort data and their application to more complex models could be useful and unique in the cervical cancer context, as well as in other disease modeling.

  10. Bayesian Monitoring.

    OpenAIRE

    Kirstein, Roland

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a modification of the inspection game: The ?Bayesian Monitoring? model rests on the assumption that judges are interested in enforcing compliant behavior and making correct decisions. They may base their judgements on an informative but imperfect signal which can be generated costlessly. In the original inspection game, monitoring is costly and generates a perfectly informative signal. While the inspection game has only one mixed strategy equilibrium, three Perfect Bayesia...

  11. Bayesian analysis for two-parameter hybrid EoS with high-mass compact star twins

    CERN Document Server

    Alvarez-Castillo, David E; Blaschke, David; Grigorian, Hovik

    2015-01-01

    We perform a Bayesian analysis in the basis of a recently developed two-parameter class of hybrid equations of state that allow for high-mass compact star twins. While recently a wide range of radii, from 9 - 15 km, has been inferred for different neutron stars using different techniques, we perform our analysis under the supposition that the radii are towards the large end ($13-15$ km). We use this radius constraint together with the undebated statistically independent constraint for high masses ($\\sim 2~M_\\odot$) as priors in selecting the most probable hybrid equations of state from a family with two free parameters: the baryon excluded volume in the hadronic phase and the 8-quark vector channel interaction in the quark matter phase.

  12. Bayesian Analysis of Two Stellar Populations in Galactic Globular Clusters. II. NGC 5024, NGC 5272, and NGC 6352

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner-Kaiser, R.; Stenning, D. C.; Robinson, E.; von Hippel, T.; Sarajedini, A.; van Dyk, D. A.; Stein, N.; Jefferys, W. H.

    2016-07-01

    We use Cycle 21 Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations and HST archival Advanced Camera for Surveys Treasury observations of Galactic Globular Clusters to find and characterize two stellar populations in NGC 5024 (M53), NGC 5272 (M3), and NGC 6352. For these three clusters, both single and double-population analyses are used to determine a best fit isochrone(s). We employ a sophisticated Bayesian analysis technique to simultaneously fit the cluster parameters (age, distance, absorption, and metallicity) that characterize each cluster. For the two-population analysis, unique population level helium values are also fit to each distinct population of the cluster and the relative proportions of the populations are determined. We find differences in helium ranging from ˜0.05 to 0.11 for these three clusters. Model grids with solar α-element abundances ([α/Fe] = 0.0) and enhanced α-elements ([α/Fe] = 0.4) are adopted.

  13. Bayesian Analysis of Two Stellar Populations in Galactic Globular Clusters II: NGC 5024, NGC 5272, and NGC 6352

    CERN Document Server

    Wagner-Kaiser, R; Robinson, E; von Hippel, T; Sarajedini, A; van Dyk, D A; Stein, N; Jefferys, W H

    2016-01-01

    We use Cycle 21 Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations and HST archival ACS Treasury observations of Galactic Globular Clusters to find and characterize two stellar populations in NGC 5024 (M53), NGC 5272 (M3), and NGC 6352. For these three clusters, both single and double-population analyses are used to determine a best fit isochrone(s). We employ a sophisticated Bayesian analysis technique to simultaneously fit the cluster parameters (age, distance, absorption, and metallicity) that characterize each cluster. For the two-population analysis, unique population level helium values are also fit to each distinct population of the cluster and the relative proportions of the populations are determined. We find differences in helium ranging from $\\sim$0.05 to 0.11 for these three clusters. Model grids with solar $\\alpha$-element abundances ([$\\alpha$/Fe] =0.0) and enhanced $\\alpha$-elements ([$\\alpha$/Fe]=0.4) are adopted.

  14. Bayesian Analysis of Two Stellar Populations in Galactic Globular Clusters. II. NGC 5024, NGC 5272, and NGC 6352

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner-Kaiser, R.; Stenning, D. C.; Robinson, E.; von Hippel, T.; Sarajedini, A.; van Dyk, D. A.; Stein, N.; Jefferys, W. H.

    2016-07-01

    We use Cycle 21 Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations and HST archival Advanced Camera for Surveys Treasury observations of Galactic Globular Clusters to find and characterize two stellar populations in NGC 5024 (M53), NGC 5272 (M3), and NGC 6352. For these three clusters, both single and double-population analyses are used to determine a best fit isochrone(s). We employ a sophisticated Bayesian analysis technique to simultaneously fit the cluster parameters (age, distance, absorption, and metallicity) that characterize each cluster. For the two-population analysis, unique population level helium values are also fit to each distinct population of the cluster and the relative proportions of the populations are determined. We find differences in helium ranging from ∼0.05 to 0.11 for these three clusters. Model grids with solar α-element abundances ([α/Fe] = 0.0) and enhanced α-elements ([α/Fe] = 0.4) are adopted.

  15. Classification of Micro Array Gene Expression Data using Factor Analysis Approach with Naïve Bayesian Classifier

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamilselvi Madeswaran

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Microarray data studies produce large number of data and in order to analyze such large micro array data lies on Data mining or Statistical Analysis. Our objective is to classify the micro arraygene expression data. Usually before going for the classification the dimensionality reduction will be performed on the micro array gene expression dataset. A statistical approach for the extraction of thegene has been proposed. The drawback in the statistical analysis is that, it doesn’t identify the important genes. Here for the classification process we use k-nearest neighbor and SVM and Naïve Bayesian classifiers. From the experimental result our proposed classifiers show increase in the efficiency and accuracy.

  16. Bayesian Statistics as a New Tool for Spectral Analysis: I. Application for the Determination of Basic Parameters of Massive Stars

    CERN Document Server

    Mugnes, J-M

    2015-01-01

    Spectral analysis is a powerful tool to investigate stellar properties and it has been widely used for decades now. However, the methods considered to perform this kind of analysis are mostly based on iteration among a few diagnostic lines to determine the stellar parameters. While these methods are often simple and fast, they can lead to errors and large uncertainties due to the required assumptions. Here we present a method based on Bayesian statistics to find simultaneously the best combination of effective temperature, surface gravity, projected rotational velocity, and microturbulence velocity, using all the available spectral lines. Different tests are discussed to demonstrate the strength of our method, which we apply to 54 mid-resolution spectra of field and cluster B stars obtained at the Observatoire du Mont-M\\'egantic. We compare our results with those found in the literature. Differences are seen which are well explained by the different methods used. We conclude that the B-star microturbulence ve...

  17. Imprintable membranes from incomplete chiral coalescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakhary, Mark J.; Gibaud, Thomas; Nadir Kaplan, C.; Barry, Edward; Oldenbourg, Rudolf; Meyer, Robert B.; Dogic, Zvonimir

    2014-01-01

    Coalescence is an essential phenomenon that governs the equilibrium behaviour in a variety of systems from intercellular transport to planetary formation. In this report, we study coalescence pathways of circularly shaped two-dimensional colloidal membranes, which are one rod-length-thick liquid-like monolayers of aligned rods. The chirality of the constituent rods leads to three atypical coalescence pathways that are not found in other simple or complex fluids. In particular, we characterize two pathways that do not proceed to completion but instead produce partially joined membranes connected by line defects—π-wall defects or alternating arrays of twisted bridges and pores. We elucidate the structure and energetics of these defects and ascribe their stability to a geometrical frustration inherently present in chiral colloidal membranes. Furthermore, we induce the coalescence process with optical forces, leading to a robust on-demand method for imprinting networks of channels and pores into colloidal membranes.

  18. The site-frequency spectrum associated with Ξ-coalescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blath, Jochen; Cronjäger, Mathias Christensen; Eldon, Bjarki; Hammer, Matthias

    2016-08-01

    We give recursions for the expected site-frequency spectrum associated with so-called Xi-coalescents, that is exchangeable coalescents which admit simultaneous multiple mergers of ancestral lineages. Xi-coalescents arise, for example, in association with population models of skewed offspring distributions with diploidy, recurrent advantageous mutations, or strong bottlenecks. In contrast, the simpler Lambda-coalescents admit multiple mergers of lineages, but at most one such merger each time. Xi-coalescents, as well as Lambda-coalescents, can predict an excess of singletons, compared to the Kingman coalescent. We compare estimates of coalescent parameters when Xi-coalescents are applied to data generated by Lambda-coalescents, and vice versa. In general, Xi-coalescents predict fewer singletons than corresponding Lambda-coalescents, but a higher count of mutations of size larger than singletons. We fit examples of Xi-coalescents to unfolded site-frequency spectra obtained for autosomal loci of the diploid Atlantic cod, and obtain different coalescent parameter estimates than obtained with corresponding Lambda-coalescents. Our results provide new inference tools, and suggest that for autosomal population genetic data from diploid or polyploid highly fecund populations who may have skewed offspring distributions, one should not apply Lambda-coalescents, but Xi-coalescents. PMID:27112097

  19. OBJECTIVE BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF ''ON/OFF'' MEASUREMENTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casadei, Diego, E-mail: diego.casadei@fhnw.ch [Visiting Scientist, Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCL, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom)

    2015-01-01

    In high-energy astrophysics, it is common practice to account for the background overlaid with counts from the source of interest with the help of auxiliary measurements carried out by pointing off-source. In this ''on/off'' measurement, one knows the number of photons detected while pointing toward the source, the number of photons collected while pointing away from the source, and how to estimate the background counts in the source region from the flux observed in the auxiliary measurements. For very faint sources, the number of photons detected is so low that the approximations that hold asymptotically are not valid. On the other hand, an analytical solution exists for the Bayesian statistical inference, which is valid at low and high counts. Here we illustrate the objective Bayesian solution based on the reference posterior and compare the result with the approach very recently proposed by Knoetig, and discuss its most delicate points. In addition, we propose to compute the significance of the excess with respect to the background-only expectation with a method that is able to account for any uncertainty on the background and is valid for any photon count. This method is compared to the widely used significance formula by Li and Ma, which is based on asymptotic properties.

  20. A Bayesian analysis of HAT-P-7b using the EXONEST algorithm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Placek, Ben [Department of Physics, University at Albany (SUNY), Albany NY (United States); Knuth, Kevin H. [Department of Physics, University at Albany (SUNY), Albany NY, USA and Department of Informatics, University at Albany (SUNY), Albany NY (United States)

    2015-01-13

    The study of exoplanets (planets orbiting other stars) is revolutionizing the way we view our universe. High-precision photometric data provided by the Kepler Space Telescope (Kepler) enables not only the detection of such planets, but also their characterization. This presents a unique opportunity to apply Bayesian methods to better characterize the multitude of previously confirmed exoplanets. This paper focuses on applying the EXONEST algorithm to characterize the transiting short-period-hot-Jupiter, HAT-P-7b (also referred to as Kepler-2b). EXONEST evaluates a suite of exoplanet photometric models by applying Bayesian Model Selection, which is implemented with the MultiNest algorithm. These models take into account planetary effects, such as reflected light and thermal emissions, as well as the effect of the planetary motion on the host star, such as Doppler beaming, or boosting, of light from the reflex motion of the host star, and photometric variations due to the planet-induced ellipsoidal shape of the host star. By calculating model evidences, one can determine which model best describes the observed data, thus identifying which effects dominate the planetary system. Presented are parameter estimates and model evidences for HAT-P-7b.

  1. pyblocxs: Bayesian Low-Counts X-ray Spectral Analysis in Sherpa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siemiginowska, A.; Kashyap, V.; Refsdal, B.; van Dyk, D.; Connors, A.; Park, T.

    2011-07-01

    Typical X-ray spectra have low counts and should be modeled using the Poisson distribution. However, χ2 statistic is often applied as an alternative and the data are assumed to follow the Gaussian distribution. A variety of weights to the statistic or a binning of the data is performed to overcome the low counts issues. However, such modifications introduce biases or/and a loss of information. Standard modeling packages such as XSPEC and Sherpa provide the Poisson likelihood and allow computation of rudimentary MCMC chains, but so far do not allow for setting a full Bayesian model. We have implemented a sophisticated Bayesian MCMC-based algorithm to carry out spectral fitting of low counts sources in the Sherpa environment. The code is a Python extension to Sherpa and allows to fit a predefined Sherpa model to high-energy X-ray spectral data and other generic data. We present the algorithm and discuss several issues related to the implementation, including flexible definition of priors and allowing for variations in the calibration information.

  2. Simultaneous discovery, estimation and prediction analysis of complex traits using a bayesian mixture model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerhard Moser

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Gene discovery, estimation of heritability captured by SNP arrays, inference on genetic architecture and prediction analyses of complex traits are usually performed using different statistical models and methods, leading to inefficiency and loss of power. Here we use a Bayesian mixture model that simultaneously allows variant discovery, estimation of genetic variance explained by all variants and prediction of unobserved phenotypes in new samples. We apply the method to simulated data of quantitative traits and Welcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC data on disease and show that it provides accurate estimates of SNP-based heritability, produces unbiased estimators of risk in new samples, and that it can estimate genetic architecture by partitioning variation across hundreds to thousands of SNPs. We estimated that, depending on the trait, 2,633 to 9,411 SNPs explain all of the SNP-based heritability in the WTCCC diseases. The majority of those SNPs (>96% had small effects, confirming a substantial polygenic component to common diseases. The proportion of the SNP-based variance explained by large effects (each SNP explaining 1% of the variance varied markedly between diseases, ranging from almost zero for bipolar disorder to 72% for type 1 diabetes. Prediction analyses demonstrate that for diseases with major loci, such as type 1 diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis, Bayesian methods outperform profile scoring or mixed model approaches.

  3. Joint Bayesian Stochastic Inversion of Well Logs and Seismic Data for Volumetric Uncertainty Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moslem Moradi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Here in, an application of a new seismic inversion algorithm in one of Iran’s oilfields is described. Stochastic (geostatistical seismic inversion, as a complementary method to deterministic inversion, is perceived as contribution combination of geostatistics and seismic inversion algorithm. This method integrates information from different data sources with different scales, as prior information in Bayesian statistics. Data integration leads to a probability density function (named as a posteriori probability that can yield a model of subsurface. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC method is used to sample the posterior probability distribution, and the subsurface model characteristics can be extracted by analyzing a set of the samples. In this study, the theory of stochastic seismic inversion in a Bayesian framework was described and applied to infer P-impedance and porosity models. The comparison between the stochastic seismic inversion and the deterministic model based seismic inversion indicates that the stochastic seismic inversion can provide more detailed information of subsurface character. Since multiple realizations are extracted by this method, an estimation of pore volume and uncertainty in the estimation were analyzed.

  4. Semiparametric Bayesian Analysis of Nutritional Epidemiology Data in the Presence of Measurement Error

    KAUST Repository

    Sinha, Samiran

    2009-08-10

    We propose a semiparametric Bayesian method for handling measurement error in nutritional epidemiological data. Our goal is to estimate nonparametrically the form of association between a disease and exposure variable while the true values of the exposure are never observed. Motivated by nutritional epidemiological data, we consider the setting where a surrogate covariate is recorded in the primary data, and a calibration data set contains information on the surrogate variable and repeated measurements of an unbiased instrumental variable of the true exposure. We develop a flexible Bayesian method where not only is the relationship between the disease and exposure variable treated semiparametrically, but also the relationship between the surrogate and the true exposure is modeled semiparametrically. The two nonparametric functions are modeled simultaneously via B-splines. In addition, we model the distribution of the exposure variable as a Dirichlet process mixture of normal distributions, thus making its modeling essentially nonparametric and placing this work into the context of functional measurement error modeling. We apply our method to the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study and examine its performance in a simulation study.

  5. A Bayesian Analysis for Identifying DNA Copy Number Variations Using a Compound Poisson Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiğiter Ayten

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available To study chromosomal aberrations that may lead to cancer formation or genetic diseases, the array-based Comparative Genomic Hybridization (aCGH technique is often used for detecting DNA copy number variants (CNVs. Various methods have been developed for gaining CNVs information based on aCGH data. However, most of these methods make use of the log-intensity ratios in aCGH data without taking advantage of other information such as the DNA probe (e.g., biomarker positions/distances contained in the data. Motivated by the specific features of aCGH data, we developed a novel method that takes into account the estimation of a change point or locus of the CNV in aCGH data with its associated biomarker position on the chromosome using a compound Poisson process. We used a Bayesian approach to derive the posterior probability for the estimation of the CNV locus. To detect loci of multiple CNVs in the data, a sliding window process combined with our derived Bayesian posterior probability was proposed. To evaluate the performance of the method in the estimation of the CNV locus, we first performed simulation studies. Finally, we applied our approach to real data from aCGH experiments, demonstrating its applicability.

  6. Towards a Fuzzy Bayesian Network Based Approach for Safety Risk Analysis of Tunnel-Induced Pipeline Damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Qin, Yawei; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J; Liu, Wenli

    2016-02-01

    Tunneling excavation is bound to produce significant disturbances to surrounding environments, and the tunnel-induced damage to adjacent underground buried pipelines is of considerable importance for geotechnical practice. A fuzzy Bayesian networks (FBNs) based approach for safety risk analysis is developed in this article with detailed step-by-step procedures, consisting of risk mechanism analysis, the FBN model establishment, fuzzification, FBN-based inference, defuzzification, and decision making. In accordance with the failure mechanism analysis, a tunnel-induced pipeline damage model is proposed to reveal the cause-effect relationships between the pipeline damage and its influential variables. In terms of the fuzzification process, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to reveal the reliability of the data when determining the fuzzy probability of occurrence of basic events, with both the judgment ability level and the subjectivity reliability level taken into account. By means of the fuzzy Bayesian inference, the approach proposed in this article is capable of calculating the probability distribution of potential safety risks and identifying the most likely potential causes of accidents under both prior knowledge and given evidence circumstances. A case concerning the safety analysis of underground buried pipelines adjacent to the construction of the Wuhan Yangtze River Tunnel is presented. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed FBN approach and its application potential. The proposed approach can be used as a decision tool to provide support for safety assurance and management in tunnel construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex project environment. PMID:26224125

  7. Quark liberation and coalescence at CERN SPS

    CERN Document Server

    Zimányi, J; Csörgö, T; Lévai, Peter

    2000-01-01

    The linear coalescence approach to hadronization of quark matter is shown to have problems with strangeness conservation in a baryon rich environment. The simplest correct quark counting is shown to coincide with the non-linear algebraic coalescence rehadronization model, ALCOR. We argue that experimental facts agree with the assumption that quark degrees of freedom are liberated before hadron formation in 158 AGeV central Pb+Pb collisions at CERN SPS. (13 refs).

  8. Coalescence preference in dense packing of bubbles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yeseul; Gim, Bopil; Gim, Bopil; Weon, Byung Mook

    2015-11-01

    Coalescence preference is the tendency that a merged bubble from the contact of two original bubbles (parent) tends to be near to the bigger parent. Here, we show that the coalescence preference can be blocked by densely packing of neighbor bubbles. We use high-speed high-resolution X-ray microscopy to clearly visualize individual coalescence phenomenon which occurs in micro scale seconds and inside dense packing of microbubbles with a local packing fraction of ~40%. Previous theory and experimental evidence predict a power of -5 between the relative coalescence position and the parent size. However, our new observation for coalescence preference in densely packed microbubbles shows a different power of -2. We believe that this result may be important to understand coalescence dynamics in dense packing of soft matter. This work (NRF-2013R1A22A04008115) was supported by Mid-career Researcher Program through NRF grant funded by the MEST and also was supported by Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning (2009-0082580) and by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry and Education, Science and Technology (NRF-2012R1A6A3A04039257).

  9. Training image analysis for model error assessment and dimension reduction in Bayesian-MCMC solutions to inverse problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koepke, C.; Irving, J.

    2015-12-01

    Bayesian solutions to inverse problems in near-surface geophysics and hydrology have gained increasing popularity as a means of estimating not only subsurface model parameters, but also their corresponding uncertainties that can be used in probabilistic forecasting and risk analysis. In particular, Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods have attracted much recent attention as a means of statistically sampling from the Bayesian posterior distribution. In this regard, two approaches are commonly used to improve the computational tractability of the Bayesian-MCMC approach: (i) Forward models involving a simplification of the underlying physics are employed, which offer a significant reduction in the time required to calculate data, but generally at the expense of model accuracy, and (ii) the model parameter space is represented using a limited set of spatially correlated basis functions as opposed to a more intuitive high-dimensional pixel-based parameterization. It has become well understood that model inaccuracies resulting from (i) can lead to posterior parameter distributions that are highly biased and overly confident. Further, when performing model reduction as described in (ii), it is not clear how the prior distribution for the basis weights should be defined because simple (e.g., Gaussian or uniform) priors that may be suitable for a pixel-based parameterization may result in a strong prior bias when used for the weights. To address the issue of model error resulting from known forward model approximations, we generate a set of error training realizations and analyze them with principal component analysis (PCA) in order to generate a sparse basis. The latter is used in the MCMC inversion to remove the main model-error component from the residuals. To improve issues related to prior bias when performing model reduction, we also use a training realization approach, but this time models are simulated from the prior distribution and analyzed using independent

  10. Bayesian methods for measures of agreement

    CERN Document Server

    Broemeling, Lyle D

    2009-01-01

    Using WinBUGS to implement Bayesian inferences of estimation and testing hypotheses, Bayesian Methods for Measures of Agreement presents useful methods for the design and analysis of agreement studies. It focuses on agreement among the various players in the diagnostic process.The author employs a Bayesian approach to provide statistical inferences based on various models of intra- and interrater agreement. He presents many examples that illustrate the Bayesian mode of reasoning and explains elements of a Bayesian application, including prior information, experimental information, the likelihood function, posterior distribution, and predictive distribution. The appendices provide the necessary theoretical foundation to understand Bayesian methods as well as introduce the fundamentals of programming and executing the WinBUGS software.Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, this hands-on book explores numerous measures of agreement, including the Kappa coefficient, the G coefficient, and intraclass correlation...

  11. Investigating Binary Black Hole Mergers with Principal Component Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Clark, James; Healy, James; Heng, Ik Siong; Logue, Josh; Mangini, Nicholas; London, Lionel; Pekowsky, Larne; Shoemaker, Deirdre

    2014-01-01

    Despite recent progress in numerical simulations of the coalescence of binary black hole systems, highly asymmetric spinning systems and the construction of accurate physical templates remain challenging and computationally expensive. We explore the feasibility of a prompt and robust test of whether the signals exhibit evidence for generic features that can educate new simulations. We form catalogs of numerical relativity waveforms with distinct physical effects and compute the relative probability that a gravitational wave signal belongs to each catalog. We introduce an algorithm designed to perform this task for coalescence signals using principal component analysis of waveform catalogs and Bayesian model selection and demonstrate its effectiveness.

  12. Comparison of linear mixed model analysis and genealogy-based haplotype clustering with a Bayesian approach for association mapping in a pedigreed population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dashab, Golam Reza; Kadri, Naveen Kumar; Mahdi Shariati, Mohammad;

    2012-01-01

    ) Mixed model analysis (MMA), 2) Random haplotype model (RHM), 3) Genealogy-based mixed model (GENMIX), and 4) Bayesian variable selection (BVS). The data consisted of phenotypes of 2000 animals from 20 sire families and were genotyped with 9990 SNPs on five chromosomes. Results: Out of the eight...

  13. Analysis and assessment of injury risk in female gymnastics:Bayesian Network approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyudmila Dimitrova

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a Bayesian network (BN model for estimating injury risk in female artistic gymnastics. The model illustrates the connections betweenunderlying injury risk factorsthrough a series ofcausal dependencies. The quantitativepart of the model – the conditional probability tables, are determined using ТNormal distribution with parameters, derived by experts. The injury rates calculated by the network are in an agreement with injury statistic data and correctly reports the impact of various risk factors on injury rates. The model is designed to assist coaches and supporting teams in planning the training activity so that injuries are minimized. This study provides important background for further data collection and research necessary to improve the precision of the quantitative predictions of the model.

  14. Improving PWR core simulations by Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis and Bayesian inference

    CERN Document Server

    Castro, Emilio; Buss, Oliver; Garcia-Herranz, Nuria; Hoefer, Axel; Porsch, Dieter

    2016-01-01

    A Monte Carlo-based Bayesian inference model is applied to the prediction of reactor operation parameters of a PWR nuclear power plant. In this non-perturbative framework, high-dimensional covariance information describing the uncertainty of microscopic nuclear data is combined with measured reactor operation data in order to provide statistically sound, well founded uncertainty estimates of integral parameters, such as the boron letdown curve and the burnup-dependent reactor power distribution. The performance of this methodology is assessed in a blind test approach, where we use measurements of a given reactor cycle to improve the prediction of the subsequent cycle. As it turns out, the resulting improvement of the prediction quality is impressive. In particular, the prediction uncertainty of the boron letdown curve, which is of utmost importance for the planning of the reactor cycle length, can be reduced by one order of magnitude by including the boron concentration measurement information of the previous...

  15. Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper assesses factors that potentially influence the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining the volatility of crude oil prices. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, an asymmetry between returns and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent compound jumps. We find evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil, corn, and wheat markets after the fall of 2006. This can be largely explained by tightened interdependence between crude oil and these commodity markets induced by ethanol production.

  16. Default Bayesian analysis for multi-way tables: a data-augmentation approach

    CERN Document Server

    Polson, Nicholas G

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a strategy for regularized estimation in multi-way contingency tables, which are common in meta-analyses and multi-center clinical trials. Our approach is based on data augmentation, and appeals heavily to a novel class of Polya-Gamma distributions. Our main contributions are to build up the relevant distributional theory and to demonstrate three useful features of this data-augmentation scheme. First, it leads to simple EM and Gibbs-sampling algorithms for posterior inference, circumventing the need for analytic approximations, numerical integration, Metropolis--Hastings, or variational methods. Second, it allows modelers much more flexibility when choosing priors, which have traditionally come from the Dirichlet or logistic-normal family. For example, our approach allows users to incorporate Bayesian analogues of classical penalized-likelihood techniques (e.g. the lasso or bridge) in computing regularized estimates for log-odds ratios. Finally, our data-augmentation scheme naturally sugg...

  17. Bayesian Analysis for Stellar Evolution with Nine Parameters (BASE-9): User's Manual

    CERN Document Server

    von Hippel, Ted; Jeffery, Elizabeth; Wagner-Kaiser, Rachel; DeGennaro, Steven; Stein, Nathan; Stenning, David; Jefferys, William H; van Dyk, David

    2014-01-01

    BASE-9 is a Bayesian software suite that recovers star cluster and stellar parameters from photometry. BASE-9 is useful for analyzing single-age, single-metallicity star clusters, binaries, or single stars, and for simulating such systems. BASE-9 uses Markov chain Monte Carlo and brute-force numerical integration techniques to estimate the posterior probability distributions for the age, metallicity, helium abundance, distance modulus, and line-of-sight absorption for a cluster, and the mass, binary mass ratio, and cluster membership probability for every stellar object. BASE-9 is provided as open source code on a version-controlled web server. The executables are also available as Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud images. This manual provides potential users with an overview of BASE-9, including instructions for installation and use.

  18. Insurance penetration and economic growth in Africa: Dynamic effects analysis using Bayesian TVP-VAR approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.O. Olayungbo

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the dynamic interactions between insurance and economic growth in eight African countries for the period of 1970–2013. Insurance demand is measured by insurance penetration which accounts for income differences across the sample countries. A Bayesian Time Varying Parameter Vector Auto regression (TVP-VAR model with stochastic volatility is used to analyze the short run and the long run among the variables of interest. Using insurance penetration as a measure of insurance to economic growth, we find positive relationship for Egypt, while short-run negative and long-run positive effects are found for Kenya, Mauritius, and South Africa. On the contrary, negative effects are found for Algeria, Nigeria, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe. Implementation of sound financial reforms and wide insurance coverage are proposed recommendations for insurance development in the selected African countries.

  19. Computation of posterior distribution in Bayesian analysis – application in an intermittently used reliability system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S.S. Yadavalli

    2002-09-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian estimation is presented for the stationary rate of disappointments, D∞, for two models (with different specifications of intermittently used systems. The random variables in the system are considered to be independently exponentially distributed. Jeffreys’ prior is assumed for the unknown parameters in the system. Inference about D∞ is being restrained in both models by the complex and non-linear definition of D∞. Monte Carlo simulation is used to derive the posterior distribution of D∞ and subsequently the highest posterior density (HPD intervals. A numerical example where Bayes estimates and the HPD intervals are determined illustrates these results. This illustration is extended to determine the frequentistical properties of this Bayes procedure, by calculating covering proportions for each of these HPD intervals, assuming fixed values for the parameters.

  20. A Bayesian Analysis of a Random Effects Small Business Loan Credit Scoring Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick J. Farrell

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important aspects of credit scoring is constructing a model that has low misclassification rates and is also flexible enough to allow for random variation. It is also well known that, when there are a large number of highly correlated variables as is typical in studies involving questionnaire data, a method must be found to reduce the number of variables to those that have high predictive power. Here we propose a Bayesian multivariate logistic regression model with both fixed and random effects for small business loan credit scoring and a variable reduction method using Bayes factors. The method is illustrated on an interesting data set based on questionnaires sent to loan officers in Canadian banks and venture capital companies

  1. Team performance and collective efficacy in the dynamic psychology of competitive team: a Bayesian network analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuster-Parra, P; García-Mas, A; Ponseti, F J; Leo, F M

    2015-04-01

    The purpose of this paper was to discover the relationships among 22 relevant psychological features in semi-professional football players in order to study team's performance and collective efficacy via a Bayesian network (BN). The paper includes optimization of team's performance and collective efficacy using intercausal reasoning pattern which constitutes a very common pattern in human reasoning. The BN is used to make inferences regarding our problem, and therefore we obtain some conclusions; among them: maximizing the team's performance causes a decrease in collective efficacy and when team's performance achieves the minimum value it causes an increase in moderate/high values of collective efficacy. Similarly, we may reason optimizing team collective efficacy instead. It also allows us to determine the features that have the strongest influence on performance and which on collective efficacy. From the BN two different coaching styles were differentiated taking into account the local Markov property: training leadership and autocratic leadership. PMID:25546263

  2. Bayesian Geostatistical Analysis and Ecoclimatic Determinants of Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis Infection among Horses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boysen, Courtney; Davis, Elizabeth G.; Beard, Laurie A.; Lubbers, Brian V.; Raghavan, Ram K.

    2015-01-01

    Kansas witnessed an unprecedented outbreak in Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis infection among horses, a disease commonly referred to as pigeon fever during fall 2012. Bayesian geostatistical models were developed to identify key environmental and climatic risk factors associated with C. pseudotuberculosis infection in horses. Positive infection status among horses (cases) was determined by positive test results for characteristic abscess formation, positive bacterial culture on purulent material obtained from a lanced abscess (n = 82), or positive serologic evidence of exposure to organism (≥1:512)(n = 11). Horses negative for these tests (n = 172)(controls) were considered free of infection. Information pertaining to horse demographics and stabled location were obtained through review of medical records and/or contact with horse owners via telephone. Covariate information for environmental and climatic determinants were obtained from USDA (soil attributes), USGS (land use/land cover), and NASA MODIS and NASA Prediction of Worldwide Renewable Resources (climate). Candidate covariates were screened using univariate regression models followed by Bayesian geostatistical models with and without covariates. The best performing model indicated a protective effect for higher soil moisture content (OR = 0.53, 95% CrI = 0.25, 0.71), and detrimental effects for higher land surface temperature (≥35°C) (OR = 2.81, 95% CrI = 2.21, 3.85) and habitat fragmentation (OR = 1.31, 95% CrI = 1.27, 2.22) for C. pseudotuberculosis infection status in horses, while age, gender and breed had no effect. Preventative and ecoclimatic significance of these findings are discussed. PMID:26473728

  3. Uncertainty analysis of pollutant build-up modelling based on a Bayesian weighted least squares approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddad, Khaled; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Rahman, Ataur; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

    2013-04-01

    Reliable pollutant build-up prediction plays a critical role in the accuracy of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes. However, water quality data collection is resource demanding compared to streamflow data monitoring, where a greater quantity of data is generally available. Consequently, available water quality datasets span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data. Therefore, the ability to take due consideration of the variability associated with pollutant processes and natural phenomena is constrained. This in turn gives rise to uncertainty in the modelling outcomes as research has shown that pollutant loadings on catchment surfaces and rainfall within an area can vary considerably over space and time scales. Therefore, the assessment of model uncertainty is an essential element of informed decision making in urban stormwater management. This paper presents the application of a range of regression approaches such as ordinary least squares regression, weighted least squares regression and Bayesian weighted least squares regression for the estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant build-up prediction using limited datasets. The study outcomes confirmed that the use of ordinary least squares regression with fixed model inputs and limited observational data may not provide realistic estimates. The stochastic nature of the dependent and independent variables need to be taken into consideration in pollutant build-up prediction. It was found that the use of the Bayesian approach along with the Monte Carlo simulation technique provides a powerful tool, which attempts to make the best use of the available knowledge in prediction and thereby presents a practical solution to counteract the limitations which are otherwise imposed on water quality modelling. PMID:23454702

  4. Bayesian analysis of RNA sequencing data by estimating multiple shrinkage priors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van De Wiel, Mark A; Leday, Gwenaël G R; Pardo, Luba; Rue, Håvard; Van Der Vaart, Aad W; Van Wieringen, Wessel N

    2013-01-01

    Next generation sequencing is quickly replacing microarrays as a technique to probe different molecular levels of the cell, such as DNA or RNA. The technology provides higher resolution, while reducing bias. RNA sequencing results in counts of RNA strands. This type of data imposes new statistical challenges. We present a novel, generic approach to model and analyze such data. Our approach aims at large flexibility of the likelihood (count) model and the regression model alike. Hence, a variety of count models is supported, such as the popular NB model, which accounts for overdispersion. In addition, complex, non-balanced designs and random effects are accommodated. Like some other methods, our method provides shrinkage of dispersion-related parameters. However, we extend it by enabling joint shrinkage of parameters, including those for which inference is desired. We argue that this is essential for Bayesian multiplicity correction. Shrinkage is effectuated by empirically estimating priors. We discuss several parametric (mixture) and non-parametric priors and develop procedures to estimate (parameters of) those. Inference is provided by means of local and Bayesian false discovery rates. We illustrate our method on several simulations and two data sets, also to compare it with other methods. Model- and data-based simulations show substantial improvements in the sensitivity at the given specificity. The data motivate the use of the ZI-NB as a powerful alternative to the NB, which results in higher detection rates for low-count data. Finally, compared with other methods, the results on small sample subsets are more reproducible when validated on their large sample complements, illustrating the importance of the type of shrinkage. PMID:22988280

  5. Bayesian analysis of multi-state data with individual covariates for estimating genetic effects on demography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Urbanek, Richard P.

    2012-01-01

    Inbreeding depression is frequently a concern of managers interested in restoring endangered species. Decisions to reduce the potential for inbreeding depression by balancing genotypic contributions to reintroduced populations may exact a cost on long-term demographic performance of the population if those decisions result in reduced numbers of animals released and/or restriction of particularly successful genotypes (i.e., heritable traits of particular family lines). As part of an effort to restore a migratory flock of Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) to eastern North America using the offspring of captive breeders, we obtained a unique dataset which includes post-release mark-recapture data, as well as the pedigree of each released individual. We developed a Bayesian formulation of a multi-state model to analyze radio-telemetry, band-resight, and dead recovery data on reintroduced individuals, in order to track survival and breeding state transitions. We used studbook-based individual covariates to examine the comparative evidence for and degree of effects of inbreeding, genotype, and genotype quality on post-release survival of reintroduced individuals. We demonstrate implementation of the Bayesian multi-state model, which allows for the integration of imperfect detection, multiple data types, random effects, and individual- and time-dependent covariates. Our results provide only weak evidence for an effect of the quality of an individual's genotype in captivity on post-release survival as well as for an effect of inbreeding on post-release survival. We plan to integrate our results into a decision-analytic modeling framework that can explicitly examine tradeoffs between the effects of inbreeding and the effects of genotype and demographic stochasticity on population establishment.

  6. Rapid sphere sizing using a Bayesian analysis of reciprocal space imaging data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziovas, K; Sederman, A J; Gehin-Delval, C; Gunes, D Z; Hughes, E; Mantle, M D

    2016-01-15

    Dispersed systems are important in many applications in a wide range of industries such as the petroleum, pharmaceutical and food industries. Therefore the ability to control and non-invasively measure the physical properties of these systems, such as the dispersed phase size distribution, is of significant interest, in particular for concentrated systems, where microscopy or scattering techniques may not apply or with very limited output quality. In this paper we show how reciprocal space data acquired using both 1D magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and 2D X-ray micro-tomographic (X-ray μCT) data can be analysed, using a Bayesian statistical model, to extract the sphere size distribution (SSD) from model sphere systems and dispersed food foam samples. Glass spheres-in-xanthan gels were used as model samples with sphere diameters (D) in the range of 45μm⩽D⩽850μm. The results show that the SSD was successfully estimated from both the NMR and X-ray μCT with a good degree of accuracy for the entire range of glass spheres in times as short as two seconds. After validating the technique using model samples, the Bayesian sphere sizing method was successfully applied to air/water foam samples generated using a microfluidics apparatus with 160μm⩽D⩽400μm. The effect of different experimental parameters such as the standard deviation of the bubble size distribution and the volume fraction of the dispersed phase is discussed. PMID:26439290

  7. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

     Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...

  8. Bias in identification of the best treatment in a Bayesian network meta-analysis for binary outcome: a simulation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kibret T

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Taddele Kibret,1 Danielle Richer,2 Joseph Beyene1,2 1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, 2Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada Abstract: Network meta-analysis (NMA has emerged as a useful analytical tool allowing comparison of multiple treatments based on direct and indirect evidence. Commonly, a hierarchical Bayesian NMA model is used, which allows rank probabilities (the probability that each treatment is best, second best, and so on to be calculated for decision making. However, the statistical properties of rank probabilities are not well understood. This study investigates how rank probabilities are affected by various factors such as unequal number of studies per comparison in the network, the sample size of individual studies, the network configuration, and effect sizes between treatments. In order to explore these factors, a simulation study of four treatments (three equally effective treatments and one less effective reference was conducted. The simulation illustrated that estimates of rank probabilities are highly sensitive to both the number of studies per comparison and the overall network configuration. An unequal number of studies per comparison resulted in biased estimates of treatment rank probabilities for every network considered. The rank probability for the treatment that was included in the fewest number of studies was biased upward. Conversely, the rank of the treatment included in the most number of studies was consistently underestimated. When the simulation was altered to include three equally effective treatments and one superior treatment, the hierarchical Bayesian NMA model correctly identified the most effective treatment, regardless of all factors varied. The results of this study offer important insight into the ability of NMA models to rank treatments accurately under several scenarios. The authors recommend that health researchers use rank

  9. Linking bovine tuberculosis on cattle farms to white-tailed deer and environmental variables using Bayesian hierarchical analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W David Walter

    Full Text Available Bovine tuberculosis is a bacterial disease caused by Mycobacterium bovis in livestock and wildlife with hosts that include Eurasian badgers (Meles meles, brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula, and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus. Risk-assessment efforts in Michigan have been initiated on farms to minimize interactions of cattle with wildlife hosts but research on M. bovis on cattle farms has not investigated the spatial context of disease epidemiology. To incorporate spatially explicit data, initial likelihood of infection probabilities for cattle farms tested for M. bovis, prevalence of M. bovis in white-tailed deer, deer density, and environmental variables for each farm were modeled in a Bayesian hierarchical framework. We used geo-referenced locations of 762 cattle farms that have been tested for M. bovis, white-tailed deer prevalence, and several environmental variables that may lead to long-term survival and viability of M. bovis on farms and surrounding habitats (i.e., soil type, habitat type. Bayesian hierarchical analyses identified deer prevalence and proportion of sandy soil within our sampling grid as the most supported model. Analysis of cattle farms tested for M. bovis identified that for every 1% increase in sandy soil resulted in an increase in odds of infection by 4%. Our analysis revealed that the influence of prevalence of M. bovis in white-tailed deer was still a concern even after considerable efforts to prevent cattle interactions with white-tailed deer through on-farm mitigation and reduction in the deer population. Cattle farms test positive for M. bovis annually in our study area suggesting that the potential for an environmental source either on farms or in the surrounding landscape may contributing to new or re-infections with M. bovis. Our research provides an initial assessment of potential environmental factors that could be incorporated into additional modeling efforts as more knowledge of deer herd

  10. Using a Simple Binomial Model to Assess Improvement in Predictive Capability: Sequential Bayesian Inference, Hypothesis Testing, and Power Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sigeti, David E. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Pelak, Robert A. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-09-11

    We present a Bayesian statistical methodology for identifying improvement in predictive simulations, including an analysis of the number of (presumably expensive) simulations that will need to be made in order to establish with a given level of confidence that an improvement has been observed. Our analysis assumes the ability to predict (or postdict) the same experiments with legacy and new simulation codes and uses a simple binomial model for the probability, {theta}, that, in an experiment chosen at random, the new code will provide a better prediction than the old. This model makes it possible to do statistical analysis with an absolute minimum of assumptions about the statistics of the quantities involved, at the price of discarding some potentially important information in the data. In particular, the analysis depends only on whether or not the new code predicts better than the old in any given experiment, and not on the magnitude of the improvement. We show how the posterior distribution for {theta} may be used, in a kind of Bayesian hypothesis testing, both to decide if an improvement has been observed and to quantify our confidence in that decision. We quantify the predictive probability that should be assigned, prior to taking any data, to the possibility of achieving a given level of confidence, as a function of sample size. We show how this predictive probability depends on the true value of {theta} and, in particular, how there will always be a region around {theta} = 1/2 where it is highly improbable that we will be able to identify an improvement in predictive capability, although the width of this region will shrink to zero as the sample size goes to infinity. We show how the posterior standard deviation may be used, as a kind of 'plan B metric' in the case that the analysis shows that {theta} is close to 1/2 and argue that such a plan B should generally be part of hypothesis testing. All the analysis presented in the paper is done with a

  11. Bayesian programming

    CERN Document Server

    Bessiere, Pierre; Ahuactzin, Juan Manuel; Mekhnacha, Kamel

    2013-01-01

    Probability as an Alternative to Boolean LogicWhile logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain DataEmphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean

  12. Collective dynamics of non-coalescing and coalescing droplets in microfluidic parking networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bithi, Swastika S; Vanapalli, Siva A

    2015-07-01

    We study the complex collective dynamics mediated by flow resistance interactions when trains of non-coalescing and coalescing confined drops are introduced into a microfluidic parking network (MPN). The MPN consists of serially connected loops capable of parking arrays of drops. We define parking modes based on whether drops park without breakage or drop fragments are parked subsequent to breakage or drops park after coalescence. With both non-coalescing and coalescing drops, we map the occurrence of these parking modes in MPNs as a function of system parameters including drop volume, drop spacing and capillary number. We find that the non-coalescing drops can either park or break in the network, producing highly polydisperse arrays. We further show that parking due to collision induced droplet break-up is the main cause of polydispersity. We discover that collisions occur due to a crowding instability, which is a natural outcome of the network topology. In striking contrast, with coalescing drops we show that the ability of drops to coalesce rectifies the volume of parked polydisperse drops, despite drops breaking in the network. We find that several parking modes act in concert during this hydrodynamic self-rectification mechanism, producing highly monodisperse drop arrays over a wide operating parameter space. We demonstrate that the rectification mechanism can be harnessed to produce two-dimensional arrays of microfluidic drops with highly tunable surface-to-volume ratios, paving the way for fundamental investigations of interfacial phenomena in emulsions. PMID:26036726

  13. A spectral decomposition for the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent and the Kingman coalescent

    OpenAIRE

    Kukla, Jonas; Pitters, Helmut H.

    2015-01-01

    We consider both the Bolthausen-Sznitman and the Kingman coalescent restricted to the partitions of {1,…,n}. Spectral decompositions of the corresponding generators are derived. As an application we obtain a formula for the Green's functions and a short derivation of the well-known formula for the transition probabilities of the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent.

  14. Gravity driven current during sessile drop coalescence on a surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ying; Oberdick, Samuel; Garoff, Stephen; Anna, Shelley

    2013-11-01

    We study the mixing behavior of two sessile drops following coalescence on a flat surface. The surface is composed of silicone elastomer on which the drops exhibit contact angles of about 90 degree. The two drops are of equal volume at coalescence, but different densities and viscosities. Using laser induced fluorescence, we obtain both a top view of the contact line motion and a side view of the cross-sectional flow. During the coalescence stage, the initial healing of the meniscus bridge and damping of capillary waves occur on time scales comparable to the inertio-capillary time. However, the interface between the dyed and undyed components remains sharp, with diffusive mixing occurring at much longer timescales. At intermediate time scales the motion is controlled by a gravity current, which leads to the eventual stratification into two separate horizontal layers within the composite drop. Using lubrication analysis, we characterize the gravity current as a function of the drop sizes, and the density and viscosity differences between the two merging fluids. The numerical solution of the lubrication analysis captures the observed scaling of the time dependent interface movement as a function of fluid and geometric parameters.

  15. An improved analytical description of inspiralling and coalescing black-hole binaries

    CERN Document Server

    Damour, Thibault

    2009-01-01

    We present an analytical formalism, within the Effective-One-Body framework, which predicts gravitational-wave signals from inspiralling and coalescing black-hole binaries that agree, within numerical errors, with the results of the currently most accurate numerical relativity simulations for several different mass ratios. We think that our formalism opens a realistic possibility of constructing a sufficiently accurate, large bank of gravitational wave templates, as needed both for detection and data analysis of (non spinning) coalescing binary black holes.

  16. Bias in identification of the best treatment in a Bayesian network meta-analysis for binary outcome: a simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibret, Taddele; Richer, Danielle; Beyene, Joseph

    2014-01-01

    Network meta-analysis (NMA) has emerged as a useful analytical tool allowing comparison of multiple treatments based on direct and indirect evidence. Commonly, a hierarchical Bayesian NMA model is used, which allows rank probabilities (the probability that each treatment is best, second best, and so on) to be calculated for decision making. However, the statistical properties of rank probabilities are not well understood. This study investigates how rank probabilities are affected by various factors such as unequal number of studies per comparison in the network, the sample size of individual studies, the network configuration, and effect sizes between treatments. In order to explore these factors, a simulation study of four treatments (three equally effective treatments and one less effective reference) was conducted. The simulation illustrated that estimates of rank probabilities are highly sensitive to both the number of studies per comparison and the overall network configuration. An unequal number of studies per comparison resulted in biased estimates of treatment rank probabilities for every network considered. The rank probability for the treatment that was included in the fewest number of studies was biased upward. Conversely, the rank of the treatment included in the most number of studies was consistently underestimated. When the simulation was altered to include three equally effective treatments and one superior treatment, the hierarchical Bayesian NMA model correctly identified the most effective treatment, regardless of all factors varied. The results of this study offer important insight into the ability of NMA models to rank treatments accurately under several scenarios. The authors recommend that health researchers use rank probabilities cautiously in making important decisions. PMID:25506247

  17. Coalescence-Induced Coalescence of Inviscid Droplets in a Viscous Fluid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martula; Hasegawa; Lloyd; Bonnecaze

    2000-12-15

    A comprehensive simulation of the coarsening mechanism coalescence-induced coalescence (CIC) is developed to predictthe growth rate of inviscid droplets in a viscous matrix fluid. In CIC, the shape relaxations of coalescing droplets establish flow fields that drive other droplets into contact, thus creating a cascade of coalescence events. It is believed that CIC is responsible for droplet growth in some demixed polymer solutions, such as isotactic polypropylene (iPP) and diphenyl ether (DPE). A cascade of coalescence events is simulated using a three-dimensional molecular dynamics-like simulation of a dispersed two-phase isopycnic fluid system. The coalescence-induced flow is driven mostly by the strong gradients in curvature at the neck of a coalescing pair of droplets, and the flow is modeled analytically by approximating it as due to a ring of point forces. The resultant velocity of each droplet in the suspension is calculated by superimposing all of the coalescence-induced flow fields and applying Faxen's Law. The mean droplet size grows like t(xi), where t is the coarsening time and xi a growth exponent that increases with increasing minority phase volume fraction varphi. Good agreement with experimental values of xi (0.22/=0.23. It is also shown that the droplet size distribution broadens for semidilute suspensions (varphi/=0.54). A phenomenological kinetic theory of coalescence is proposed. It is believed that in nondilute emulsions, CIC can account for coarsening that has been attributed previously to more traditional coalescence mechanisms. Copyright 2000 Academic Press. PMID:11097757

  18. 12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo

    2015-01-01

    Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...

  19. The Rest-Frame Golenetskii Correlation via a Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Burgess, J Michael

    2015-01-01

    Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are characterised by a strong correlation between the instantaneous luminosity and the spectral peak energy within a burst. This correlation, which is known as the hardness-intensity correlation or the Golenetskii correlation, not only holds important clues to the physics of GRBs but is thought to have the potential to determine redshifts of bursts. In this paper, I use a hierarchical Bayesian model to study the universality of the rest-frame Golenetskii correlation and in particular I assess its use as a redshift estimator for GRBs. I find that, using a power-law prescription of the correlation, the power-law indices cluster near a common value, but have a broader variance than previously reported ($\\sim 1-2$). Furthermore, I find evidence that there is spread in intrinsic rest-frame correlation normalizations for the GRBs in our sample ($\\sim 10^{51}-10^{53}$ erg s$^{-1}$). This points towards variable physical settings of the emission (magnetic field strength, number of emitting ele...

  20. Bayesian analysis of overdispersed chromosome aberration data with the negative binomial model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The usual assumption of a Poisson model for the number of chromosome aberrations in controlled calibration experiments implies variance equal to the mean. However, it is known that chromosome aberration data from experiments involving high linear energy transfer radiations can be overdispersed, i.e. the variance is greater than the mean. Present methods for dealing with overdispersed chromosome data rely on frequentist statistical techniques. In this paper, the problem of overdispersion is considered from a Bayesian standpoint. The Bayes Factor is used to compare Poisson and negative binomial models for two previously published calibration data sets describing the induction of dicentric chromosome aberrations by high doses of neutrons. Posterior densities for the model parameters, which characterise dose response and overdispersion are calculated and graphed. Calibrative densities are derived for unknown neutron doses from hypothetical radiation accident data to determine the impact of different model assumptions on dose estimates. The main conclusion is that an initial assumption of a negative binomial model is the conservative approach to chromosome dosimetry for high LET radiations. (author)

  1. Bayesian population analysis of a washin-washout physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for acetone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The aim of this study was to derive improved estimates of population variability and uncertainty of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model parameters, especially of those related to the washin-washout behavior of polar volatile substances. This was done by optimizing a previously published washin-washout PBPK model for acetone in a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The sensitivity of the model parameters was investigated by creating four different prior sets, where the uncertainty surrounding the population variability of the physiological model parameters was given values corresponding to coefficients of variation of 1%, 25%, 50%, and 100%, respectively. The PBPK model was calibrated to toxicokinetic data from 2 previous studies where 18 volunteers were exposed to 250-550 ppm of acetone at various levels of workload. The updated PBPK model provided a good description of the concentrations in arterial, venous, and exhaled air. The precision of most of the model parameter estimates was improved. New information was particularly gained on the population distribution of the parameters governing the washin-washout effect. The results presented herein provide a good starting point to estimate the target dose of acetone in the working and general populations for risk assessment purposes.

  2. A unified Bayesian semiparametric approach to assess discrimination ability in survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lili; Feng, Dai; Chen, Guoan; Taylor, Jeremy M G

    2016-06-01

    The discriminatory ability of a marker for censored survival data is routinely assessed by the time-dependent ROC curve and the c-index. The time-dependent ROC curve evaluates the ability of a biomarker to predict whether a patient lives past a particular time t. The c-index measures the global concordance of the marker and the survival time regardless of the time point. We propose a Bayesian semiparametric approach to estimate these two measures. The proposed estimators are based on the conditional distribution of the survival time given the biomarker and the empirical biomarker distribution. The conditional distribution is estimated by a linear-dependent Dirichlet process mixture model. The resulting ROC curve is smooth as it is estimated by a mixture of parametric functions. The proposed c-index estimator is shown to be more efficient than the commonly used Harrell's c-index since it uses all pairs of data rather than only informative pairs. The proposed estimators are evaluated through simulations and illustrated using a lung cancer dataset. PMID:26676324

  3. A Bayesian analysis of redshifted 21-cm HI signal and foregrounds: Simulations for LOFAR

    CERN Document Server

    Ghosh, Abhik; Chapman, Emma; Jelic, Vibor

    2015-01-01

    Observations of the EoR with the 21-cm hyperfine emission of neutral hydrogen (HI) promise to open an entirely new window onto the formation of the first stars, galaxies and accreting black holes. In order to characterize the weak 21-cm signal, we need to develop imaging techniques which can reconstruct the extended emission very precisely. Here, we present an inversion technique for LOFAR baselines at NCP, based on a Bayesian formalism with optimal spatial regularization, which is used to reconstruct the diffuse foreground map directly from the simulated visibility data. We notice the spatial regularization de-noises the images to a large extent, allowing one to recover the 21-cm power-spectrum over a considerable $k_{\\perp}-k_{\\para}$ space in the range of $0.03\\,{\\rm Mpc^{-1}}

  4. Bayesian analysis of white noise levels in the 5-year WMAP data

    CERN Document Server

    Groeneboom, N E; Gorski, K; Huey, G; Jewell, J; Wandelt, B

    2009-01-01

    We develop a new Bayesian method for estimating white noise levels in CMB sky maps, and apply this algorithm to the 5-year WMAP data. We assume that the amplitude of the noise RMS is scaled by a constant value, alpha, relative to a pre-specified noise level. We then derive the corresponding conditional density, P(alpha | s, C_l, d), which is subsequently integrated into a general CMB Gibbs sampler. We first verify our code by analyzing simulated data sets, and then apply the framework to the WMAP data. For the foreground-reduced 5-year WMAP sky maps, we find that the posterior means typically range between alpha=1.005 +- 0.001 and alpha=1.010 +- 0.001 depending on differencing assembly, indicating that the noise level of these maps are underestimated by 0.5-1.0%. The same problem is not observed for the uncorrected WMAP sky maps. The only difference between these two cases is that the nominal white noise level for the foreground-reduced map is specified to be lower than that of the raw maps. This is likely in...

  5. Alternative method of highway traffic safety analysis for developing countries using delphi technique and Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mbakwe, Anthony C; Saka, Anthony A; Choi, Keechoo; Lee, Young-Jae

    2016-08-01

    Highway traffic accidents all over the world result in more than 1.3 million fatalities annually. An alarming number of these fatalities occurs in developing countries. There are many risk factors that are associated with frequent accidents, heavy loss of lives, and property damage in developing countries. Unfortunately, poor record keeping practices are very difficult obstacle to overcome in striving to obtain a near accurate casualty and safety data. In light of the fact that there are numerous accident causes, any attempts to curb the escalating death and injury rates in developing countries must include the identification of the primary accident causes. This paper, therefore, seeks to show that the Delphi Technique is a suitable alternative method that can be exploited in generating highway traffic accident data through which the major accident causes can be identified. In order to authenticate the technique used, Korea, a country that underwent similar problems when it was in its early stages of development in addition to the availability of excellent highway safety records in its database, is chosen and utilized for this purpose. Validation of the methodology confirms the technique is suitable for application in developing countries. Furthermore, the Delphi Technique, in combination with the Bayesian Network Model, is utilized in modeling highway traffic accidents and forecasting accident rates in the countries of research. PMID:27183516

  6. A Bayesian analysis of trends in ozone sounding data series from 9 Nordic stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Bo; Jepsen, Nis; Larsen, Niels; Korsholm, Ulrik S.

    2016-04-01

    Ozone soundings from 9 Nordic stations have been homogenized and interpolated to standard pressure levels. The different stations have very different data coverage; the longest period with data is from the end of the 1980ies to 2013. We apply a model which includes both low-frequency variability in form of a polynomial, an annual cycle with harmonics, the possibility for low-frequency variability in the annual amplitude and phasing, and either white noise or AR1 noise. The fitting of the parameters is performed with a Bayesian approach not only giving the posterior mean values but also credible intervals. We find that all stations agree on an well-defined annual cycle in the free troposphere with a relatively confined maximum in the early summer. Regarding the low-frequency variability we find that Scoresbysund, Ny Aalesund, and Sodankyla show similar structures with a maximum near 2005 followed by a decrease. However, these results are only weakly significant. A significant change in the amplitude of the annual cycle was only found for Ny Aalesund. Here the peak-to-peak amplitude changes from 0.9 to 0.8 mhPa between 1995-2000 and 2007-2012. The results are shown to be robust to the different settings of the model parameters (order of the polynomial, number of harmonics in the annual cycle, type of noise, etc). The results are also shown to be characteristic for all pressure levels in the free troposphere.

  7. Bayesian Analysis of Two Stellar Populations in Galactic Globular Clusters. I. Statistical and Computational Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenning, D. C.; Wagner-Kaiser, R.; Robinson, E.; van Dyk, D. A.; von Hippel, T.; Sarajedini, A.; Stein, N.

    2016-07-01

    We develop a Bayesian model for globular clusters composed of multiple stellar populations, extending earlier statistical models for open clusters composed of simple (single) stellar populations. Specifically, we model globular clusters with two populations that differ in helium abundance. Our model assumes a hierarchical structuring of the parameters in which physical properties—age, metallicity, helium abundance, distance, absorption, and initial mass—are common to (i) the cluster as a whole or to (ii) individual populations within a cluster, or are unique to (iii) individual stars. An adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is devised for model fitting that greatly improves convergence relative to its precursor non-adaptive MCMC algorithm. Our model and computational tools are incorporated into an open-source software suite known as BASE-9. We use numerical studies to demonstrate that our method can recover parameters of two-population clusters, and also show how model misspecification can potentially be identified. As a proof of concept, we analyze the two stellar populations of globular cluster NGC 5272 using our model and methods. (BASE-9 is available from GitHub: https://github.com/argiopetech/base/releases).

  8. Bayesian analysis of cosmic-ray propagation: evidence against homogeneous diffusion

    CERN Document Server

    Jóhannesson, G; Vincent, A C; Moskalenko, I V; Orlando, E; Porter, T A; Strong, A W; Trotta, R; Feroz, F; Graff, P; Hobson, M P

    2016-01-01

    We present the results of the most complete ever scan of the parameter space for cosmic ray (CR) injection and propagation. We perform a Bayesian search of the main GALPROP parameters, using the MultiNest nested sampling algorithm, augmented by the BAMBI neural network machine learning package. This is the first such study to separate out low-mass isotopes ($p$, $\\bar p$ and He) from the usual light elements (Be, B, C, N, O). We find that the propagation parameters that best fit $p$, $\\bar p$, He data are significantly different from those that fit light elements, including the B/C and $^{10}$Be/$^9$Be secondary-to-primary ratios normally used to calibrate propagation parameters. This suggests each set of species is probing a very different interstellar medium, and that the standard approach of calibrating propagation parameters using B/C can lead to incorrect results. We present posterior distributions and best fit parameters for propagation of both sets of nuclei, as well as for the injection abundances of ...

  9. Coalescence and breakup of large droplets in turbulent channel flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarbolo, Luca; Bianco, Federico; Soldati, Alfredo

    2015-07-01

    Coalescence and breakup of large deformable droplets dispersed in a wall-bounded turbulent flow are investigated. Droplets much larger than the Kolmogorov length scale and characterized by a broad range of surface tension values are considered. The turbulent field is a channel flow computed with pseudo-spectral direct numerical simulations, while phase interactions are described with a phase field model. Within this physically consistent framework, the motion of the interfaces, the capillary effects, and the complex topological changes experienced by the droplets are simulated in detail. An oil-water emulsion is mimicked: the fluids are considered of same density and viscosity for a range of plausible values of surface tension, resulting in a simplified system that sets a benchmark for further analysis. In the present conditions, the Weber number (We), that is, the ratio between inertia and surface tension, is a primary factor for determining the droplets coalescence rate and the occurrence of breakups. Depending on the value of We, two different regimes are observed: when We is smaller than a threshold value (We 1), a permanent dynamic equilibrium between coalescence and breakup events is established.

  10. Bubble coalescence dynamics and supersaturation in electrolytic gas evolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stover, R.L. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Dept. of Chemical Engineering]|[Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States). Energy and Environment Div.

    1996-08-01

    The apparatus and procedures developed in this research permit the observation of electrolytic bubble coalescence, which heretofore has not been possible. The influence of bubble size, electrolyte viscosity, surface tension, gas type, and pH on bubble coalescence was examined. The Navier-Stokes equations with free surface boundary conditions were solved numerically for the full range of experimental variables that were examined. Based on this study, the following mechanism for bubble coalescence emerges: when two gas bubbles coalesce, the surface energy decreases as the curvature and surface area of the resultant bubble decrease, and the energy is imparted into the surrounding liquid. The initial motion is driven by the surface tension and slowed by the inertia and viscosity of the surrounding fluid. The initial velocity of the interface is approximately proportional to the square root of the surface tension and inversely proportional to the square root of the bubble radius. Fluid inertia sustains the oblate/prolate oscillations of the resultant bubble. The period of the oscillations varies with the bubble radius raised to the 3/2 power and inversely with the square root of the surface tension. Viscous resistance dampens the oscillations at a rate proportional to the viscosity and inversely proportional to the square of the bubble radius. The numerical simulations were consistent with most of the experimental results. The differences between the computed and measured saddle point decelerations and periods suggest that the surface tension in the experiments may have changed during each run. By adjusting the surface tension in the simulation, a good fit was obtained for the 150-{micro}m diameter bubbles. The simulations fit the experiments on larger bubbles with very little adjustment of surface tension. A more focused analysis should be done to elucidate the phenomena that occur in the receding liquid film immediately following rupture.

  11. Molecular dynamics simulations of void coalescence in monocrystalline copper under loading and unloading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiaojuan; Zhu, Wenjun; Chen, Kaiguo; Deng, Xiaoliang; Wei, Yongkai

    2016-04-01

    Molecular dynamic calculations are used to examine the anisotropy of voids coalescence under loading and unloading conditions in monocrystalline coppers. In this paper, three typical orientations are investigated, including [100], [110], and [111]. The study shows that voids collapse after the shock loading, leaving two disordered regions at the initial voids sites. Voids re-nucleate in the disordered regions and grow by the emission of dislocations on various slip planes. The dislocation motion contributes to local stress relaxation, which causes the voids to expand to certain radius and then coalesce with each other by dislocation emission. Due to the influence of the anisotropy shear field and different slip systems around the voids, the dislocations emit more easily at specific position, which lead to the anisotropy of void coalescence. A two-dimensional analysis model based on a shear dislocation is proposed and it explains the phenomena of void coalescence in the simulations quite well.

  12. Bayesian peak bagging analysis of 19 low-mass low-luminosity red giants observed with Kepler

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corsaro, E.; De Ridder, J.; García, R. A.

    2015-07-01

    Context. Non-radial oscillations, observed in thousands of red giants by the space missions CoRoT and Kepler, allow us to greatly improve our understanding of stellar structure and evolution in cool low-mass stars. The currently available Kepler light curves contain an outstanding amount of information, but a detailed analysis of the individual oscillation modes in the observed power spectra, also known as peak bagging, is computationally demanding and challenging to perform on a large number of targets. Aims: Our intent is to perform for the first time a peak bagging analysis on a sample of 19 low-mass low-luminosity red giants observed by Kepler for more than four years. This allows us to provide high-quality asteroseismic measurements that can be exploited for an intensive testing of the physics used in stellar structure models, stellar evolution, and pulsation codes, as well as for refining existing asteroseismic scaling relations in the red giant branch regime. Methods: For this purpose, powerful and sophisticated analysis tools are needed. We exploit the Bayesian code Diamonds, using an efficient nested sampling Monte Carlo algorithm, to perform both a fast fitting of the individual oscillation modes and a peak detection test based on the Bayesian evidence. Results: We find good agreement for the parameters estimated in the background fitting phase with those given in the literature. We extract and characterize a total of 1618 oscillation modes, providing the largest set of detailed asteroseismic mode measurements ever published. We report on the evidence of a change in regime observed in the relation between linewidths and effective temperatures of the stars occurring at the bottom of the red giant branch. We show the presence of a linewidth depression or plateau around νmax for all the red giants of the sample. Lastly, we show a good agreement between our measurements of maximum mode amplitudes and existing maximum amplitudes from global analyses provided

  13. Gene regulatory network reconstruction using Bayesian networks, the Dantzig Selector, the Lasso and their meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthieu Vignes

    Full Text Available Modern technologies and especially next generation sequencing facilities are giving a cheaper access to genotype and genomic data measured on the same sample at once. This creates an ideal situation for multifactorial experiments designed to infer gene regulatory networks. The fifth "Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods" (DREAM5 challenges are aimed at assessing methods and associated algorithms devoted to the inference of biological networks. Challenge 3 on "Systems Genetics" proposed to infer causal gene regulatory networks from different genetical genomics data sets. We investigated a wide panel of methods ranging from Bayesian networks to penalised linear regressions to analyse such data, and proposed a simple yet very powerful meta-analysis, which combines these inference methods. We present results of the Challenge as well as more in-depth analysis of predicted networks in terms of structure and reliability. The developed meta-analysis was ranked first among the 16 teams participating in Challenge 3A. It paves the way for future extensions of our inference method and more accurate gene network estimates in the context of genetical genomics.

  14. Bayesian peak bagging analysis of 19 low-mass low-luminosity red giants observed with Kepler

    CERN Document Server

    Corsaro, E; García, R A

    2015-01-01

    The currently available Kepler light curves contain an outstanding amount of information but a detailed analysis of the individual oscillation modes in the observed power spectra, also known as peak bagging, is computationally demanding and challenging to perform on a large number of targets. Our intent is to perform for the first time a peak bagging analysis on a sample of 19 low-mass low-luminosity red giants observed by Kepler for more than four years. This allows us to provide high-quality asteroseismic measurements that can be exploited for an intensive testing of the physics used in stellar structure models, stellar evolution and pulsation codes, as well as for refining existing asteroseismic scaling relations in the red giant branch regime. For this purpose, powerful and sophisticated analysis tools are needed. We exploit the Bayesian code Diamonds, using an efficient nested sampling Monte Carlo algorithm, to perform both a fast fitting of the individual oscillation modes and a peak detection test base...

  15. Performance comparison of multi-detector detection statistics in targeted compact binary coalescence GW search

    CERN Document Server

    Haris, K

    2016-01-01

    Global network of advanced Interferometric gravitational wave (GW) detectors are expected to be on-line soon. Coherent observation of GW from a distant compact binary coalescence (CBC) with a network of interferometers located in different continents give crucial information about the source such as source location and polarization information. In this paper we compare different multi-detector network detection statistics for CBC search. In maximum likelihood ratio (MLR) based detection approaches, the likelihood ratio is optimized to obtain the best model parameters and the best likelihood ratio value is used as statistic to make decision on the presence of signal. However, an alternative Bayesian approach involves marginalization of the likelihood ratio over the parameters to obtain the average likelihood ratio. We obtain an analytical expression for the Bayesian statistic using the two effective synthetic data streams for targeted search of non-spinning compact binary systems with an uninformative prior on...

  16. Analysis of trend changes in Northern African palaeo-climate by using Bayesian inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schütz, Nadine; Trauth, Martin H.; Holschneider, Matthias

    2010-05-01

    Climate variability of Northern Africa is of high interest due to climate-evolutionary linkages under study. The reconstruction of the palaeo-climate over long time scales, including the expected linkages (> 3 Ma), is mainly accessible by proxy data from deep sea drilling cores. By concentrating on published data sets, we try to decipher rhythms and trends to detect correlations between different proxy time series by advanced mathematical methods. Our preliminary data is dust concentration, as an indicator for climatic changes such as humidity, from the ODP sites 659, 721 and 967 situated around Northern Africa. Our interest is in challenging the available time series with advanced statistical methods to detect significant trend changes and to compare different model assumptions. For that purpose, we want to avoid the rescaling of the time axis to obtain equidistant time steps for filtering methods. Additionally we demand an plausible description of the errors for the estimated parameters, in terms of confidence intervals. Finally, depending on what model we restrict on, we also want an insight in the parameter structure of the assumed models. To gain this information, we focus on Bayesian inference by formulating the problem as a linear mixed model, so that the expectation and deviation are of linear structure. By using the Bayesian method we can formulate the posteriori density as a function of the model parameters and calculate this probability density in the parameter space. Depending which parameters are of interest, we analytically and numerically marginalize the posteriori with respect to the remaining parameters of less interest. We apply a simple linear mixed model to calculate the posteriori densities of the ODP sites 659 and 721 concerning the last 5 Ma at maximum. From preliminary calculations on these data sets, we can confirm results gained by the method of breakfit regression combined with block bootstrapping ([1]). We obtain a significant change

  17. Analysis of prognostic factors for survival after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma based on a bayesian network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-Qiang Cai

    Full Text Available The prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC after hepatectomy involves many factors. Previous studies have evaluated the separate influences of single factors; few have considered the combined influence of various factors. This paper combines the Bayesian network (BN with importance measures to identify key factors that have significant effects on survival time.A dataset of 299 patients with HCC after hepatectomy was studied to establish a BN using a tree-augmented naïve Bayes algorithm that could mine relationships between factors. The composite importance measure was applied to rank the impact of factors on survival time.124 patients (>10 months and 77 patients (≤10 months were correctly classified. The accuracy of BN model was 67.2%. For patients with long survival time (>10 months, the true-positive rate of the model was 83.22% and the false-positive rate was 48.67%. According to the model, the preoperative alpha fetoprotein (AFP level and postoperative performance of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE were independent factors for survival of HCC patients. The grade of preoperative liver function reflected the tendency for postoperative complications. Intraoperative blood loss, tumor size, portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT, time of clamping the porta hepatis, tumor number, operative method, and metastasis were dependent variables in survival time prediction. PVTT was considered the most significant for the prognosis of survival time.Using the BN and importance measures, PVTT was identified as the most significant predictor of survival time for patients with HCC after hepatectomy.

  18. Maximum likelihood Bayesian model averaging and its predictive analysis for groundwater reactive transport models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming; Curtis, Gary P.

    2015-10-01

    While Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has been widely used in groundwater modeling, it is infrequently applied to groundwater reactive transport modeling because of multiple sources of uncertainty in the coupled hydrogeochemical processes and because of the long execution time of each model run. To resolve these problems, this study analyzed different levels of uncertainty in a hierarchical way, and used the maximum likelihood version of BMA, i.e., MLBMA, to improve the computational efficiency. This study demonstrates the applicability of MLBMA to groundwater reactive transport modeling in a synthetic case in which twenty-seven reactive transport models were designed to predict the reactive transport of hexavalent uranium (U(VI)) based on observations at a former uranium mill site near Naturita, CO. These reactive transport models contain three uncertain model components, i.e., parameterization of hydraulic conductivity, configuration of model boundary, and surface complexation reactions that simulate U(VI) adsorption. These uncertain model components were aggregated into the alternative models by integrating a hierarchical structure into MLBMA. The modeling results of the individual models and MLBMA were analyzed to investigate their predictive performance. The predictive logscore results show that MLBMA generally outperforms the best model, suggesting that using MLBMA is a sound strategy to achieve more robust model predictions relative to a single model. MLBMA works best when the alternative models are structurally distinct and have diverse model predictions. When correlation in model structure exists, two strategies were used to improve predictive performance by retaining structurally distinct models or assigning smaller prior model probabilities to correlated models. Since the synthetic models were designed using data from the Naturita site, the results of this study are expected to provide guidance for real-world modeling. Limitations of applying MLBMA to the

  19. Degeneracies in sky localization determination from a spinning coalescing binary through gravitational wave observations: a Markov-chain Monte Carlo analysis for two detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gravitational-wave signals from inspirals of binary compact objects (black holes and neutron stars) are primary targets of the ongoing searches by ground-based gravitational-wave interferometers (LIGO, Virgo and GEO-600). We present parameter-estimation simulations for inspirals of black-hole-neutron-star binaries using Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods. As a specific example of the power of these methods, we consider source localization in the sky and analyze the degeneracy in it when data from only two detectors are used. We focus on the effect that the black-hole spin has on the localization estimation. We also report on a comparative Markov-chain Monte Carlo analysis with two different waveform families, at 1.5 and 3.5 post-Newtonian orders.

  20. Bayesian theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A

    2013-01-01

    The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...

  1. Planar aggregation and the coalescing Brownian flow

    OpenAIRE

    Norris, James; Turner, Amanda

    2008-01-01

    We study a scaling limit associated to a model of planar aggregation. The model is obtained by composing certain independent random conformal maps. The evolution of harmonic measure on the boundary of the cluster is shown to converge to the coalescing Brownian flow.

  2. Bayesian analysis of radial velocity data of GJ667C with correlated noise: evidence for no more than 3 planets

    CERN Document Server

    Feroz, Farhan

    2013-01-01

    GJ667C is the least massive component of a triple star system which lies at a distance of about 6.8 pc (22.1 light-years) from Earth. GJ667C has received much attention recently due to the claims that it hosts up to seven planets including three super-Earths inside the habitable zone. We present a Bayesian technique for the analysis of radial velocity (RV) data-sets in the presence of correlated noise component ("red noise"), with unknown parameters. We also introduce hyper-parameters in our model in order to deal statistically with under or over-estimated error bars on measured RVs as well as inconsistencies between different data-sets. By applying this method to the RV data-set of GJ667C and show that this data-set contains a significant correlated (red) noise component with correlation timescale for HARPS data of order 9 days. Our analysis shows that the data only provides strong evidence for the presence of two planets: GJ667Cb and c with periods 7.19d and 28.13d respectively, with some hints towards the ...

  3. Bayesian statistics as a new tool for spectral analysis - I. Application for the determination of basic parameters of massive stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mugnes, J.-M.; Robert, C.

    2015-11-01

    Spectral analysis is a powerful tool to investigate stellar properties and it has been widely used for decades now. However, the methods considered to perform this kind of analysis are mostly based on iteration among a few diagnostic lines to determine the stellar parameters. While these methods are often simple and fast, they can lead to errors and large uncertainties due to the required assumptions. Here, we present a method based on Bayesian statistics to find simultaneously the best combination of effective temperature, surface gravity, projected rotational velocity, and microturbulence velocity, using all the available spectral lines. Different tests are discussed to demonstrate the strength of our method, which we apply to 54 mid-resolution spectra of field and cluster B stars obtained at the Observatoire du Mont-Mégantic. We compare our results with those found in the literature. Differences are seen which are well explained by the different methods used. We conclude that the B-star microturbulence velocities are often underestimated. We also confirm the trend that B stars in clusters are on average faster rotators than field B stars.

  4. Do Bayesian Model Weights Tell the Whole Story? New Analysis and Optimal Design Tools for Maximum-Confidence Model Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöniger, A.; Nowak, W.; Wöhling, T.

    2013-12-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) combines the predictive capabilities of alternative conceptual models into a robust best estimate and allows the quantification of conceptual uncertainty. The individual models are weighted with their posterior probability according to Bayes' theorem. Despite this rigorous procedure, we see four obstacles to robust model ranking: (1) The weights inherit uncertainty related to measurement noise in the calibration data set, which may compromise the reliability of model ranking. (2) Posterior weights rank the models only relative to each other, but do not contain information about the absolute model performance. (3) There is a lack of objective methods to assess whether the suggested models are practically distinguishable or very similar to each other, i.e., whether the individual models explore different regions of the model space. (4) No theory for optimal design (OD) of experiments exists that explicitly aims at maximum-confidence model discrimination. The goal of our study is to overcome these four shortcomings. We determine the robustness of weights against measurement noise (1) by repeatedly perturbing the observed data with random measurement errors and analyzing the variability in the obtained weights. Realizing that model weights have a probability distribution of their own, we introduce an additional term into the overall prediction uncertainty analysis scheme which we call 'weighting uncertainty'. We further assess an 'absolute distance' in performance of the model set from the truth (2) as seen through the eyes of the data by interpreting statistics of Bayesian model evidence. This analysis is of great value for modellers to decide, if the modelling task can be satisfactorily carried out with the model(s) at hand, or if more effort should be invested in extending the set with better performing models. As a further prerequisite for robust model selection, we scrutinize the ability of BMA to distinguish between the models in

  5. Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging for Non-Uniqueness and Uncertainty Analysis of Artificial Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fijani, E.; Chitsazan, N.; Nadiri, A.; Tsai, F. T.; Asghari Moghaddam, A.

    2012-12-01

    Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been widely used to estimate concentration of chemicals in groundwater systems. However, estimation uncertainty is rarely discussed in the literature. Uncertainty in ANN output stems from three sources: ANN inputs, ANN parameters (weights and biases), and ANN structures. Uncertainty in ANN inputs may come from input data selection and/or input data error. ANN parameters are naturally uncertain because they are maximum-likelihood estimated. ANN structure is also uncertain because there is no unique ANN model given a specific case. Therefore, multiple plausible AI models are generally resulted for a study. One might ask why good models have to be ignored in favor of the best model in traditional estimation. What is the ANN estimation variance? How do the variances from different ANN models accumulate to the total estimation variance? To answer these questions we propose a Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging (HBMA) framework. Instead of choosing one ANN model (the best ANN model) for estimation, HBMA averages outputs of all plausible ANN models. The model weights are based on the evidence of data. Therefore, the HBMA avoids overconfidence on the single best ANN model. In addition, HBMA is able to analyze uncertainty propagation through aggregation of ANN models in a hierarchy framework. This method is applied for estimation of fluoride concentration in the Poldasht plain and the Bazargan plain in Iran. Unusually high fluoride concentration in the Poldasht and Bazargan plains has caused negative effects on the public health. Management of this anomaly requires estimation of fluoride concentration distribution in the area. The results show that the HBMA provides a knowledge-decision-based framework that facilitates analyzing and quantifying ANN estimation uncertainties from different sources. In addition HBMA allows comparative evaluation of the realizations for each source of uncertainty by segregating the uncertainty sources in

  6. Application of Bayesian nonparametric models to the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of source term in a BWR severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A full-scope method is constructed to reveal source term uncertainties and to identify influential inputs during a severe accident at a nuclear power plant (NPP). An integrated severe accident code, MELCOR Ver. 1.8.5, is used as a tool to simulate the accident similar to that occurred at Unit 2 of the Fukushima Daiichi NPP. In order to figure out how much radioactive materials are released from the containment to the environment during the accident, Monte Carlo based uncertainty analysis is performed. Generally, in order to evaluate the influence of uncertain inputs on the output, a large number of code runs are required in the global sensitivity analysis. To avoid the laborious computational cost for the global sensitivity analysis via MELCOR, a surrogate stochastic model is built using a Bayesian nonparametric approach, Dirichlet process. Probability distributions derived from uncertainty analysis using MELCOR and the stochastic model show good agreement. The appropriateness of the stochastic model is cross-validated through the comparison with MELCOR results. The importance measure of uncertain input variables are calculated according to their influences on the uncertainty distribution as first-order effect and total effect. The validity of the present methodology is demonstrated through an example with three uncertain input variables. - Highlights: • A method of source term uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is proposed. • Source term in Fukushima Daiichi NPP severe accident is demonstrated. • Uncertainty distributions of source terms show non-standard shapes. • A surrogate model for integrated code is constructed by using Dirichlet process. • Importance ranking of influential input variables is obtained

  7. CFD aided investigation of single droplet coalescence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Felix Gebauer; Mark W Hlawitschka; Hans-Jrg Bart

    2016-01-01

    This article describes the development of a coalescence model using various CFD work packages, and is validated using as toluene water model system. Numerical studies were performed to describe droplet interactions in liq-uid–liquid test systems. Current models use adjustable parameters to describe these phenomena. The research in the past decades led to different correlations to model coalescence and breakage depending on the chemical sys-tem and the apparatus geometry. Especial y the complexity of droplet coalescence requires a detailed investiga-tion of local phenomena during the droplet interaction. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies of single droplet interactions were performed and validated with experimental results to improve the understanding of the local hydrodynamics and film drainage during coalescence. The CFD simulations were performed for the in-teraction of two differently sized droplets at industrial relevant impact velocities. The experimental verification and validation of the numerical results were done with standardized high-speed imaging studies by using a spe-cial test cel with a pendant and a free rising droplet. An experimental based algorithm was implemented in the open source code OpenFOAM to account for the contact time and the dimple formation. The standard European Federation of Chemical Engineering (EFCE) test system toluene/water was used for the numerical studies and the experimental investigations as wel . The results of the CFD simulations are in good accordance with the observed coalescence behavior in the experimental studies. In addition, a detailed description of local phenomena, like film rupture, velocity gradients, pressures and micro-droplet entrainment could be obtained.

  8. Phylogenetic and coalescent analysis of three loci suggest that the Water Rail is divisible into two species, Rallus aquaticus and R. indicus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Kroon Gerard HJ

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Water Rails (Rallus aquaticus inhabit fragmented freshwater wetlands across their Palearctic distribution. Disjunct populations are now thought to be morphologically similar over their vast geographic range, though four subspecies had been recognized previously. The fossil record suggests that Water Rails (R. aquaticus were already spread across the Palearctic by the Pleistocene ~2 million years ago, and the oldest fossil remains thought to be closely related to the common ancestor of water rails date from the Pliocene. Results To investigate population structure in Water Rails at the genetic level we sequenced three independent loci: 686 base pairs (bp of the mitochondrial DNA COI barcode; 618 bp of the intron ADH5; and 746 bp of the exon PTPN12. Phylogeographic analysis revealed that Water Rails breeding in eastern Asia (R. a. indicus, also known as the Brown-cheeked Rail are strongly differentiated from the Water Rails in Western and Middle Asia and Europe (R. a. aquaticus and R. a. korejewi. The Kimura 3-parameter plus Gamma COI genetic distance between these two geographic groups was > 3%, and they differed by 18 diagnostic substitutions commensurate with differences between recently diverged sister species of birds. In spite of the low number of variable sites, the two nuclear loci supported this split. We estimated the split of the Brown-cheeked Rail and the Water Rail to have occurred ~534,000 years ago (95% CI 275,000-990,000 years ago. Fragmentation of the widespread ancestral population and eventual speciation of water rails is likely attributable to vicariance by a barrier formed by glacial cycles, continuous uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and increased sedimentation in deserts in southern Asia that originated in the Miocene. Conclusions Water Rails from East Asia were genetically differentiated from the ones breeding in Europe and Western to Middle Asia. Most of the genetic signal was from mitochondrial COI, and

  9. Efficacy of the Additional Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy to Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy for Patients with Locoregionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: a Bayesian Network Meta-analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Yu-Pei; Guo, Rui; Liu, Na; Liu, Xu; Mao, Yan-Ping; Tang, Ling-Long; Zhou, Guan-qun; Lin, Ai-Hua; Sun, Ying; Ma, Jun

    2015-01-01

    Background: Due to the lack of studies, it remains unclear whether the additional neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) to concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) is superior to CCRT alone for locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). The main objective of this Bayesian network meta-analysis was to determine the efficacy of NACT+CCRT as compared with CCRT alone. Methods: We comprehensively searched databases and extracted data from randomized controlled trials involving NPC patients who r...

  10. Efficacy of biological agents administered as monotherapy in rheumatoid arthritis: a Bayesian mixed-treatment comparison analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Migliore A

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Alberto Migliore,1 Emanuele Bizzi,1 Colin Gerard Egan,2 Mauro Bernardi,3 Lea Petrella4 1Rheumatology Unit, San Pietro Fatebenefratelli Hospital, Rome, 2Primula Multimedia SRL, Pisa, 3Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padova, Padova, 4MEMOTEF Department, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy Background: Biological agents provide an important therapeutic alternative for rheumatoid arthritis patients refractory to conventional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs. Few head-to-head comparative trials are available.Purpose: The aim of this meta-analysis was to compare the relative efficacy of different biologic agents indicated for use as monotherapy in rheumatoid arthritis.Methods: A systemic literature search was performed on electronic databases to identify articles reporting double-blind randomized controlled trials investigating the efficacy of biologic agents indicated for monotherapy. Efficacy was assessed using American College of Rheumatology (ACR 20, 50, and 70 criteria at 16–24 weeks. Relative efficacy was estimated using Bayesian mixed-treatment comparison models. Outcome measures were expressed as odds ratio and 95% credible intervals.Results: Ten randomized controlled trials were selected for data extraction and analysis. Mixed-treatment comparison analysis revealed that tocilizumab offered 100% probability of being the best treatment for inducing an ACR20 response versus placebo, methotrexate, adalimumab, or etanercept. Likewise, for ACR50 and ACR70 outcome responses, tocilizumab had a 99.8% or 98.7% probability of being the best treatment, respectively, compared to other treatments or placebo. Tocilizumab increased the relative probability of being the best treatment (vs methotrexate by 3.2-fold (odds ratio: 2.1–3.89 for all ACR outcomes.Conclusion: Tocilizumab offered the greatest possibility of obtaining an ACR20, ACR50, and ACR70 outcome vs other monotherapies or placebo. Keywords: biologics, meta-analysis

  11. A Bayesian Belief Network modelling of organisational factors in risk analysis: A case study in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper presents an innovative approach to integrate Human and Organisational Factors (HOF) into risk analysis. The approach has been developed and applied to a case study in the maritime industry, but it can also be utilised in other sectors. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) has been developed to model the Maritime Transport System (MTS), by taking into account its different actors (i.e., ship-owner, shipyard, port and regulator) and their mutual influences. The latter have been modelled by means of a set of dependent variables whose combinations express the relevant functions performed by each actor. The BBN model of the MTS has been used in a case study for the quantification of HOF in the risk analysis carried out at the preliminary design stage of High Speed Craft (HSC). The study has focused on a collision in open sea hazard carried out by means of an original method of integration of a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of technical elements with a BBN model of the influences of organisational functions and regulations, as suggested by the International Maritime Organisation's (IMO) Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA). The approach has allowed the identification of probabilistic correlations between the basic events of a collision accident and the BBN model of the operational and organisational conditions. The linkage can be exploited in different ways, especially to support identification and evaluation of risk control options also at the organisational level. Conditional probabilities for the BBN have been estimated by means of experts' judgments, collected from an international panel of different European countries. Finally, a sensitivity analysis has been carried out over the model to identify configurations of the MTS leading to a significant reduction of accident probability during the operation of the HSC

  12. Bayesian Analysis Of Stormwater Quality Treatment: Application To A Surface Sand Filter And A Subsurface Gravel Wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avellaneda, P.; Ballestero, T. P.; Roseen, R.; Houle, J.; Linder, E.

    2010-12-01

    In a previous study of the same research project, Avellaneda et al. (2010) reported the application of a transport model for simulating contaminant removal by a sand filter. The model was based on the one-dimensional advection-dispersion equation. The unknown parameters of the model were the contaminant deposition rate and the hydrodynamic dispersion. The model was calibrated on a storm by storm basis and optimized parameter values were provided for 15 rainfall-runoff events. Although a statistical summary of optimized parameter values was provided, they recommended these results as input information for the implementation of a more rigorous statistical approach towards the description of parameter uncertainty. In this study, a Bayesian statistical approach is used to determine parameter uncertainty for the stormwater treatment model and monitoring data reported by Avellaneda et al. (2010). The objectives of this study are: (1) to develop a Bayesian stormwater quality approach for two stormwater treatment systems: a subsurface gravel wetland and a sand filter; (2) to determine the posterior probability distribution (PPD) of the deposition rate and the hydrodynamic dispersion; and (3) to perform Monte Carlo simulations to estimate effluent pollutant concentrations from the stormwater systems using the calculated PPDs. Two stormwater treatment systems were selected for this study: a sand filter and a subsurface gravel wetland. Both systems are located at the University of New Hampshire Stormwater Center in Durham, New Hampshire (USA). Influent and effluent for these two stormwater treatment systems were monitored between August 2004 and September 2006. A total of 15 storms were collected for the subsurface gravel wetland and 16 storms for the sand filter. Runoff constituent analysis included: TSS, TPH-D, and Zn. Results indicate that the mean particle deposition rate of the sand filter is higher than that of the subsurface gravel wetland. The deposition rate

  13. A Bayesian approach to multi-messenger astronomy: identification of gravitational-wave host galaxies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present a general framework for incorporating astrophysical information into Bayesian parameter estimation techniques used by gravitational wave data analysis to facilitate multi-messenger astronomy. Since the progenitors of transient gravitational wave events, such as compact binary coalescences, are likely to be associated with a host galaxy, improvements to the source sky location estimates through the use of host galaxy information are explored. To demonstrate how host galaxy properties can be included, we simulate a population of compact binary coalescences and show that for ∼8.5% of simulations within 200 Mpc, the top 10 most likely galaxies account for a ∼50% of the total probability of hosting a gravitational wave source. The true gravitational wave source host galaxy is in the top 10 galaxy candidates ∼10% of the time. Furthermore, we show that by including host galaxy information, a better estimate of the inclination angle of a compact binary gravitational wave source can be obtained. We also demonstrate the flexibility of our method by incorporating the use of either the B or K band into our analysis.

  14. Bayesian artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Korb, Kevin B

    2010-01-01

    Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

  15. Bayesian Graphical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    2016-01-01

    Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes and...... largely due to the availability of efficient inference algorithms for answering probabilistic queries about the states of the variables in the network. Furthermore, to support the construction of Bayesian network models, learning algorithms are also available. We give an overview of the Bayesian network...

  16. Bayesian Analysis of a Lipid-Based Physiologically Based Toxicokinetic Model for a Mixture of PCBs in Rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan F. Sasso

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A lipid-based physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK model has been developed for a mixture of six polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs in rats. The aim of this study was to apply population Bayesian analysis to a lipid PBTK model, while incorporating an internal exposure-response model linking enzyme induction and metabolic rate. Lipid-based physiologically based toxicokinetic models are a subset of PBTK models that can simulate concentrations of highly lipophilic compounds in tissue lipids, without the need for partition coefficients. A hierarchical treatment of population metabolic parameters and a CYP450 induction model were incorporated into the lipid-based PBTK framework, and Markov-Chain Monte Carlo was applied to in vivo data. A mass balance of CYP1A and CYP2B in the liver was necessary to model PCB metabolism at high doses. The linked PBTK/induction model remained on a lipid basis and was capable of modeling PCB concentrations in multiple tissues for all dose levels and dose profiles.

  17. Application of Bayesian Belief networks to the human reliability analysis of an oil tanker operation focusing on collision accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During the last three decades, several techniques have been developed for the quantitative study of human reliability. In the 1980s, techniques were developed to model systems by means of binary trees, which did not allow for the representation of the context in which human actions occur. Thus, these techniques cannot model the representation of individuals, their interrelationships, and the dynamics of a system. These issues make the improvement of methods for Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) a pressing need. To eliminate or at least attenuate these limitations, some authors have proposed modeling systems using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs). The application of these tools is expected to address many of the deficiencies in current approaches to modeling human actions with binary trees. This paper presents a methodology based on BBN for analyzing human reliability and applies this method to the operation of an oil tanker, focusing on the risk of collision accidents. The obtained model was used to determine the most likely sequence of hazardous events and thus isolate critical activities in the operation of the ship to study Internal Factors (IFs), Skills, and Management and Organizational Factors (MOFs) that should receive more attention for risk reduction.

  18. The first complete mitochondrial genome from Bostrychus genus (Bostrychus sinensis) and partitioned Bayesian analysis of Eleotridae fish phylogeny

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Tao Wei; Xiao Xiao Jin; Tian Jun Xu

    2013-08-01

    To understand the phylogenetic position of Bostrychus sinensis in Eleotridae and the phylogenetic relationships of the family, we determined the nucleotide sequence of the mitochondrial (mt) genome of Bostrychus sinensis. It is the first complete mitochondrial genome sequence of Bostrychus genus. The entire mtDNA sequence was 16508 bp in length with a standard set of 13 protein-coding genes, 22 transfer RNA genes (tRNAs), two ribosomal RNA genes (rRNAs) and a noncoding control region. The mitochondrial genome of B. sinensis had common features with those of other bony fishes with respect to gene arrangement, base composition, and tRNA structures. Phylogenetic hypotheses within Eleotridae fish have been controversial at the genus level. We used the mitochondrial cytochrome b (cytb) gene sequence to examine phylogenetic relationships of Eleotridae by using partitioned Bayesian method. When the specific models and parameter estimates were presumed for partitioning the total data, the harmonic mean –lnL was improved. The phylogenetic analysis supported the monophyly of Hypseleotris and Gobiomorphs. In addition, the Bostrychus were most closely related to Ophiocara, and the Philypnodon is also the sister to Microphlypnus, based on the current datasets. Further, extensive taxonomic sampling and more molecular information are needed to confirm the phylogenetic relationships in Eleotridae.

  19. Hierarchical Bayesian clustering for nonstationary flood frequency analysis: Application to trends of annual maximum flow in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xun; Lall, Upmanu; Merz, Bruno; Dung, Nguyen Viet

    2015-08-01

    Especially for extreme precipitation or floods, there is considerable spatial and temporal variability in long term trends or in the response of station time series to large-scale climate indices. Consequently, identifying trends or sensitivity of these extremes to climate parameters can be marked by high uncertainty. When one develops a nonstationary frequency analysis model, a key step is the identification of potential trends or effects of climate indices on the station series. An automatic clustering procedure that effectively pools stations where there are similar responses is desirable to reduce the estimation variance, thus improving the identification of trends or responses, and accounting for spatial dependence. This paper presents a new hierarchical Bayesian approach for exploring homogeneity of response in large area data sets, through a multicomponent mixture model. The approach allows the reduction of uncertainties through both full pooling and partial pooling of stations across automatically chosen subsets of the data. We apply the model to study the trends in annual maximum daily stream flow at 68 gauges over Germany. The effects of changing the number of clusters and the parameters used for clustering are demonstrated. The results show that there are large, mainly upward trends in the gauges of the River Rhine Basin in Western Germany and along the main stream of the Danube River in the south, while there are also some small upward trends at gauges in Central and Northern Germany.

  20. Global trends and factors associated with the illegal killing of elephants: A hierarchical bayesian analysis of carcass encounter data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burn, Robert W; Underwood, Fiona M; Blanc, Julian

    2011-01-01

    Elephant poaching and the ivory trade remain high on the agenda at meetings of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Well-informed debates require robust estimates of trends, the spatial distribution of poaching, and drivers of poaching. We present an analysis of trends and drivers of an indicator of elephant poaching of all elephant species. The site-based monitoring system known as Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE), set up by the 10(th) Conference of the Parties of CITES in 1997, produces carcass encounter data reported mainly by anti-poaching patrols. Data analyzed were site by year totals of 6,337 carcasses from 66 sites in Africa and Asia from 2002-2009. Analysis of these observational data is a serious challenge to traditional statistical methods because of the opportunistic and non-random nature of patrols, and the heterogeneity across sites. Adopting a bayesian hierarchical modeling approach, we used the proportion of carcasses that were illegally killed (PIKE) as a poaching index, to estimate the trend and the effects of site- and country-level factors associated with poaching. Important drivers of illegal killing that emerged at country level were poor governance and low levels of human development, and at site level, forest cover and area of the site in regions where human population density is low. After a drop from 2002, PIKE remained fairly constant from 2003 until 2006, after which it increased until 2008. The results for 2009 indicate a decline. Sites with PIKE ranging from the lowest to the highest were identified. The results of the analysis provide a sound information base for scientific evidence-based decision making in the CITES process. PMID:21912670

  1. Global trends and factors associated with the illegal killing of elephants: A hierarchical bayesian analysis of carcass encounter data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert W Burn

    Full Text Available Elephant poaching and the ivory trade remain high on the agenda at meetings of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES. Well-informed debates require robust estimates of trends, the spatial distribution of poaching, and drivers of poaching. We present an analysis of trends and drivers of an indicator of elephant poaching of all elephant species. The site-based monitoring system known as Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE, set up by the 10(th Conference of the Parties of CITES in 1997, produces carcass encounter data reported mainly by anti-poaching patrols. Data analyzed were site by year totals of 6,337 carcasses from 66 sites in Africa and Asia from 2002-2009. Analysis of these observational data is a serious challenge to traditional statistical methods because of the opportunistic and non-random nature of patrols, and the heterogeneity across sites. Adopting a bayesian hierarchical modeling approach, we used the proportion of carcasses that were illegally killed (PIKE as a poaching index, to estimate the trend and the effects of site- and country-level factors associated with poaching. Important drivers of illegal killing that emerged at country level were poor governance and low levels of human development, and at site level, forest cover and area of the site in regions where human population density is low. After a drop from 2002, PIKE remained fairly constant from 2003 until 2006, after which it increased until 2008. The results for 2009 indicate a decline. Sites with PIKE ranging from the lowest to the highest were identified. The results of the analysis provide a sound information base for scientific evidence-based decision making in the CITES process.

  2. Applied Bayesian modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Congdon, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and data analysis, with an emphasis on the interpretation of real data sets. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, this book aims to make a wide range of statistical modeling applications accessible using tested code that can be readily adapted to the reader's own applications. The second edition has been thoroughly reworked and updated to take account of advances in the field. A new set of worked examples is included. The novel aspect of the first edition was the coverage of statistical modeling using WinBU

  3. Coalescence and Collisions of Gold Nanoparticles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Pérez-Tijerina

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the assembling of small gold clusters subject to collisions and close contact coalescence by using molecular dynamics simulations to simulate events that occur typically in the sputtering process of synthesis. Our results support the notion that the kinetics of coalescence processes strongly determine the geometry and structure of the final particle. While impact velocities, relative orientations, and the initial shape of the interacting particles are unlikely to strictly determine the structural details of the newly formed particle, we found that high initial temperatures and/or impact velocities increase the probability of appearance of icosahedral-like structures, Wulff polyhedra are likely to be formed as a product of the interactions between nanospheres, while the appearance of fcc particles of approximately cuboctahedral shape is mainly due to the interaction between icosahedra.

  4. Thermocapillary-Induced Phase Separation with Coalescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Robert H.

    2003-01-01

    Research has been undertaken on interactions of two or more deformable drops (or bubbles) in a viscous fluid and subject to a temperature, gravitational, or flow field. An asymptotic theory for nearly spherical drops shows that small deformations reduce the coalescence and phase separation rates. Boundary-integral simulations for large deformations show that bubbles experience alignment and enhanced coalescence, whereas more viscous drops may break as a result of hydrodynamic interactions. Experiments for buoyancy motion confirm these observations. Simulations of the sedimentation of many drops show clustering phenomena due to deformations, which lead to enhanced phase separation rates, and simulations of sheared emulsions show that deformations cause a reduction in the effective viscosity.

  5. Inferring Coalescence Times from DNA Sequence Data

    OpenAIRE

    Tavare, S; Balding, D. J.; Griffiths, R. C.; Donnelly, P

    1997-01-01

    The paper is concerned with methods for the estimation of the coalescence time (time since the most recent common ancestor) of a sample of intraspecies DNA sequences. The methods take advantage of prior knowledge of population demography, in addition to the molecular data. While some theoretical results are presented, a central focus is on computational methods. These methods are easy to implement, and, since explicit formulae tend to be either unavailable or unilluminating, they are also mor...

  6. Coalescence of Bubbles in Electrolyte Solutions.

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Orvalho, Sandra; Růžička, Marek

    Ozarow Mazowiecki : Nobell Compressing sp. z o.o, 2015 - (Kosinsky, K.; Urbanczyk, M.; Žerko, S.), s. 106 ISBN N. [Smart and Green Interfaces: Fundamentals and Diagnostics. Sofia (BG), 29.10.2015-31.10.2015] R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP504/12/1186 Institutional support: RVO:67985858 Keywords : coalescence * bubble * electrolytes Subject RIV: CI - Industrial Chemistry, Chemical Engineering

  7. Flow induced coalescence in polymer blends

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jůza, Josef; Fortelný, Ivan

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 1 (2013), s. 53-60. ISSN 1996-4196. [POLYCHAR 20 World Forum on Advanced Materials. Dubrovnik, 26.03.2012-30.03.2012] R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP106/11/1069 Institutional support: RVO:61389013 Keywords : coalescence * polymer blends * extensional flow Subject RIV: BK - Fluid Dynamics http://old.lp.edu.ua//journals/jcct/arkhiv-nomeriv/2013/no-1/

  8. Bayesian analysis of radial velocity data of GJ667C with correlated noise: evidence for only two planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feroz, F.; Hobson, M. P.

    2014-02-01

    GJ667C is the least massive component of a triple star system which lies at a distance of about 6.8 pc (22.1 light-year) from the Earth. GJ667C has received much attention recently due to the claims that it hosts up to seven planets including three super-Earths inside the habitable zone. We present a Bayesian technique for the analysis of radial velocity (RV) data sets in the presence of correlated noise component (`red noise'), with unknown parameters. We also introduce hyper-parameters in our model in order to deal statistically with under- or overestimated error bars on measured RVs as well as inconsistencies between different data sets. By applying this method to the RV data set of GJ667C, we show that this data set contains a significant correlated (red) noise component with correlation time-scale for HARPS data of the order of 9 d. Our analysis shows that the data only provide strong evidence for the presence of two planets: GJ667Cb and c with periods 7.19 and 28.13 d, respectively, with some hints towards the presence of a third signal with period 91 d. The planetary nature of this third signal is not clear and additional RV observations are required for its confirmation. Previous claims of the detection of additional planets in this system are due the erroneous assumption of white noise. Using the standard white noise assumption, our method leads to the detection of up to five signals in this system. We also find that with the red noise model, the measurement uncertainties from HARPS for this system are underestimated at the level of ˜50 per cent.

  9. The analysis of low-level radioactivity using the Bayesian statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The analysis of low-level or dominant background dominant radioactiviy is complicated by the fact that sample net rate of activity above background may be negative, because of random fluctuations. (authors)

  10. Analysis of genome-wide association data by large-scale Bayesian logistic regression

    OpenAIRE

    Wang Yuanjia; Sha Nanshi; Fang Yixin

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Single-locus analysis is often used to analyze genome-wide association (GWA) data, but such analysis is subject to severe multiple comparisons adjustment. Multivariate logistic regression is proposed to fit a multi-locus model for case-control data. However, when the sample size is much smaller than the number of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) or when correlation among SNPs is high, traditional multivariate logistic regression breaks down. To accommodate the scale of data fro...

  11. Arrested coalescence of viscoelastic droplets: polydisperse doublets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahiya, Prerna; Caggioni, Marco; Spicer, Patrick T

    2016-07-28

    Arrested droplet coalescence produces stable anisotropic shapes and is a key mechanism for microstructure development in foods, petroleum and pharmaceutical formulations. Past work has examined the dynamic elastic arrest of coalescing monodisperse droplet doublets and developed a simple model of doublet strain as a function of physical variables. Although the work describes experimental data well, it is limited to describing same-size droplets. A new model incorporating a generalized description of doublet shape is developed to describe polydisperse doublet formation in more realistic emulsion systems. Polydisperse doublets are shown to arrest at lower strains than monodisperse doublets as a result of the smaller contribution of surface area in a given pair. Larger droplet size ratios have lower relative degrees of strain because coalescence is arrested at an earlier stage than in more monodisperse cases. Experimental observations of polydisperse doublet formation indicate that the model under-predicts arrest strains at low solid levels and small droplet sizes. The discrepancy is hypothesized to be the result of nonlinear elastic deformation at high strains.This article is part of the themed issue 'Soft interfacial materials: from fundamentals to formulation'. PMID:27298435

  12. Bayesian Games with Intentions

    OpenAIRE

    Bjorndahl, Adam; Halpern, Joseph Y.; Pass, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    We show that standard Bayesian games cannot represent the full spectrum of belief-dependent preferences. However, by introducing a fundamental distinction between intended and actual strategies, we remove this limitation. We define Bayesian games with intentions, generalizing both Bayesian games and psychological games, and prove that Nash equilibria in psychological games correspond to a special class of equilibria as defined in our setting.

  13. Molecular dynamics simulation of helium bubble coalescence in titanium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molecular dynamics simulations were performed to study the helium bubble coalescence in titanium. The influence of helium bubble coalescence on the metal microstructure was analyzed. The bubble coalescences in the bulk metal and near the metal surface were compared. When helium bubbles lie in the bulk metal, a lot of defects are induced around by the bubbles coalescence and extend outward. The coalescence of helium bubbles with 1.77 nm diameter can form a dislocation loop around them. The helium bubbles after coalescence evolve from dumbbell shape toward ellipsoid shape. When helium bubbles lie near the metal surface, the defects induced by bubbles coalescence are likely to move to the top surface, and the metal around bubble tends to restore the crystal structure. The helium bubbles evolve from dumbbell shape toward hemispherical shape. (authors)

  14. Spatial Bayesian Latent Factor Regression Modeling of Coordinate-based Meta-analysis Data

    OpenAIRE

    Montagna, Silvia; Wager, Tor; Feldman-Barrett, Lisa; Timothy D. Johnson; Nichols, Thomas E.

    2016-01-01

    Now over 20 years old, functional MRI (fMRI) has a large and growing literature that is best synthesised with meta-analytic tools. As most authors do not share image data, only the peak activation coordinates (foci) reported in the paper are available for Coordinate-based Meta-analysis (CBMA). Neuroimaging meta-analysis is used to 1) identify areas of consistent activation; and 2) build a predictive model of task type or cognitive process for new studies (reverse inference). To simultaneously...

  15. Integrative analysis of histone ChIP-seq and transcription data using Bayesian mixture models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klein, Hans-Ulrich; Schäfer, Martin; Porse, Bo T; Hasemann, Marie S; Ickstadt, Katja; Dugas, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Histone modifications are a key epigenetic mechanism to activate or repress the transcription of genes. Datasets of matched transcription data and histone modification data obtained by ChIP-seq exist, but methods for integrative analysis of both data types are still rare. Here, we present a novel...

  16. Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis of PBPK Model Predictions for Permethrin in Rats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uncertainty analysis of human physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model predictions can pose a significant challenge due to data limitations. As a result of these limitations, human models are often derived from extrapolated animal PBPK models, for which there is usuall...

  17. Bayesian simultaneous equation models for the analysis of energy intake and partitioning in growing pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strathe, Anders Bjerring; Jørgensen, Henry; Kebreab, E;

    2012-01-01

    . 25, 75, 120 and 150 kg body weight (BW) using metabolic cages and open circuit respiration chambers. A total of 56 measurements were performed. The sensitivity analysis showed that only the maintenance component was sensitive to the prior specification, and hence the maintenance estimate of 0-À91 MJ...

  18. Monitoring county-level chlamydia incidence in Texas, 2004 – 2005: application of empirical Bayesian smoothing and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Owens Chantelle J

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chlamydia continues to be the most prevalent disease in the United States. Effective spatial monitoring of chlamydia incidence is important for successful implementation of control and prevention programs. The objective of this study is to apply Bayesian smoothing and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA methods to monitor Texas county-level chlamydia incidence rates by examining spatiotemporal patterns. We used county-level data on chlamydia incidence (for all ages, gender and races from the National Electronic Telecommunications System for Surveillance (NETSS for 2004 and 2005. Results Bayesian-smoothed chlamydia incidence rates were spatially dependent both in levels and in relative changes. Erath county had significantly (p 300 cases per 100,000 residents than its contiguous neighbors (195 or less in both years. Gaines county experienced the highest relative increase in smoothed rates (173% – 139 to 379. The relative change in smoothed chlamydia rates in Newton county was significantly (p Conclusion Bayesian smoothing and ESDA methods can assist programs in using chlamydia surveillance data to identify outliers, as well as relevant changes in chlamydia incidence in specific geographic units. Secondly, it may also indirectly help in assessing existing differences and changes in chlamydia surveillance systems over time.

  19. Bayesian inference as a tool for analysis of first-principles calculations of complex materials: an application to the melting point of Ti2GaN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present a systematic implementation of the recently developed Z-method for computing melting points of solids, augmented by a Bayesian analysis of the data obtained from molecular dynamics simulations. The use of Bayesian inference allows us to extract valuable information from limited data, reducing the computational cost of drawing the isochoric curve. From this Bayesian Z-method we obtain posterior distributions for the melting temperature Tm, the critical superheating temperature TLS and the slopes dT/dE of the liquid and solid phases. The method therefore gives full quantification of the errors in the prediction of the melting point. This procedure is applied to the estimation of the melting point of Ti2GaN (one of the so-called MAX phases), a complex, laminar material, by density functional theory molecular dynamics, finding an estimate Tm of 2591.61 ± 89.61 K, which is in good agreement with melting points of similar ceramics. (paper)

  20. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

    Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...