Bayesian aerosol retrieval algorithm for MODIS AOD retrieval over land
Lipponen, Antti; Mielonen, Tero; Pitkänen, Mikko R. A.; Levy, Robert C.; Sawyer, Virginia R.; Romakkaniemi, Sami; Kolehmainen, Ville; Arola, Antti
2018-03-01
We have developed a Bayesian aerosol retrieval (BAR) algorithm for the retrieval of aerosol optical depth (AOD) over land from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). In the BAR algorithm, we simultaneously retrieve all dark land pixels in a granule, utilize spatial correlation models for the unknown aerosol parameters, use a statistical prior model for the surface reflectance, and take into account the uncertainties due to fixed aerosol models. The retrieved parameters are total AOD at 0.55 µm, fine-mode fraction (FMF), and surface reflectances at four different wavelengths (0.47, 0.55, 0.64, and 2.1 µm). The accuracy of the new algorithm is evaluated by comparing the AOD retrievals to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD. The results show that the BAR significantly improves the accuracy of AOD retrievals over the operational Dark Target (DT) algorithm. A reduction of about 29 % in the AOD root mean square error and decrease of about 80 % in the median bias of AOD were found globally when the BAR was used instead of the DT algorithm. Furthermore, the fraction of AOD retrievals inside the ±(0.05+15 %) expected error envelope increased from 55 to 76 %. In addition to retrieving the values of AOD, FMF, and surface reflectance, the BAR also gives pixel-level posterior uncertainty estimates for the retrieved parameters. The BAR algorithm always results in physical, non-negative AOD values, and the average computation time for a single granule was less than a minute on a modern personal computer.
A Bayesian Analysis of the Radioactive Releases of Fukushima
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tomioka, Ryota; Mørup, Morten
2012-01-01
the types of nuclides and their levels of concentration from the recorded mixture of radiations to take necessary measures. We presently formulate a Bayesian generative model for the data available on radioactive releases from the Fukushima Daiichi disaster across Japan. From the sparsely sampled...... the Fukushima Daiichi plant we establish that the model is able to account for the data. We further demonstrate how the model extends to include all the available measurements recorded throughout Japan. The model can be considered a first attempt to apply Bayesian learning unsupervised in order to give a more......The Fukushima Daiichi disaster 11 March, 2011 is considered the largest nuclear accident since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster and has been rated at level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale. As different radioactive materials have different effects to human body, it is important to know...
Radon and aerosol release from open-pit uranium mining
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thomas, V.W.; Nielson, K.K.; Mauch, M.L.
1982-08-01
The quantity of 222 Rn (hereafter called radon) released per unit of uranium produced from open pit mining has been determined. A secondary objective was to determine the nature and quantity of airborne particles resulting from mine operations. To accomplish these objectives, a comprehensive study of the release rates of radon and aerosol material to the atmosphere was made over a one-year period from April 1979 to May 1980 at the Morton Ranch Mine which was operated by United Nuclear Corporation (UNC) in partnership with Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). The mine is now operated for TVA by Silver King Mines. Morton Ranch Mine was one of five open pit uranium mines studied in central Wyoming. Corroborative measurements were made of radon flux and 226 Ra (hereafter called radium) concentrations of various surfaces at three of the other mines in October 1980 and again at these three mines plus a fourth in April of 1981. Three of these mines are located in the Powder River Basin, about 80 kilometers east by northeast of Casper. One is located in the Shirley Basin, about 60 km south of Casper, and the remaining one is located in the Gas Hills, approximately 100 km west of Casper. The one-year intensive study included simultaneous measurement of several parameters: continuous measurement of atmospheric radon concentration near the ground at three locations, monthly 24-hour radon flux measurements from various surfaces, radium analyses of soil samples collected under each of the flux monitoring devices, monthly integrations of aerosols on dichotomous aerosol samplers, analysis of aerosol samplers for total dust loading, aerosol elemental and radiochemical composition, aerosol elemental composition by particle size, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, barometric pressure, and rainfall
Aerosols released in accidents in reprocessing plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ballinger, M.Y.; Owczarski, P.C.; Hashimoto, K.; Nishio, G.; Jordan, S.; Lindner, W.
1987-01-01
For analyzing the thermodynamic and radiological consequences of solvent fire accidents in reprocessing plants, intensive investigations on burning contaminated condensible liquids were performed at Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe (KfK), Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), and Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI). In small- and large-scale tests, KfK studied the behavior of kerosene, tributyl phosphate, HNO 3 mixture fires in open air and closed containments. The particle release from uranium-contaminated pool fires was investigated. Different filter devices were tested. For analyzing fires, PNL has developed the FIRIN computer code and has generated small-scale fire data in support of that code. The results of the experiments in which contaminated combustible liquids were burned demonstrate the use of the FIRIN code in simulating a solvent fire in a nuclear reprocessing plant. To demonstrate the safety evaluation of a postulated solvent fire in an extraction process of a reprocessing pant, JAERI conducted large-scale fire tests. Behavior of solvent fires in a cell and the integrity of high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters due to smoke plugging were investigated. To evaluate confinement of radioactive materials released from the solvent fire, the ventilation systems with HEPA filters were tested under postulated fire conditions
Aerosols released from solvent fire accidents in reprocessing plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jordan, S.; Lindner, W.
1985-01-01
Thermodynamic, aerosol characterizing and radiological data of solvent fires in reprocessing plants have been established in experiments. These are the main results: Depending on the ventilation in the containment, kerosene-TBP mixtures burn at a rate up to 120 kg/m 2 h. The aqueous phase of inorganic-organic mixtures might be released during the fire. The gaseous reaction products contain unburnable acidic compounds. Solvents with TBP-nitrate complex shows higher (up to 25%) burning rates than pure solvents (kerosene-TBP). The nitrate complex decomposes violently at about 130 0 C with a release of acid and unburnable gases. Up to 20% of the burned kerosene-TBP solvents are released during the fire in the form of soot particles, phosphoric acid and TBP decomposition products. The particles have an aerodynamic mass median diameter of about 0.5 μm and up to 1.5% of the uranium fixed in the TBP-nitrate complex is released during solvent fires. (orig.)
Small-Scale Spray Releases: Initial Aerosol Test Results
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mahoney, Lenna A.; Gauglitz, Phillip A.; Kimura, Marcia L.; Brown, Garrett N.; Kurath, Dean E.; Buchmiller, William C.; Smith, Dennese M.; Blanchard, Jeremy; Song, Chen; Daniel, Richard C.; Wells, Beric E.; Tran, Diana N.; Burns, Carolyn A.
2013-05-29
One of the events postulated in the hazard analysis at the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) and other U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities is a breach in process piping that produces aerosols with droplet sizes in the respirable range. The current approach for predicting the size and concentration of aerosols produced in a spray leak involves extrapolating from correlations reported in the literature. These correlations are based on results obtained from small engineered spray nozzles using pure liquids with Newtonian fluid behavior. The narrow ranges of physical properties on which the correlations are based do not cover the wide range of slurries and viscous materials that will be processed in the WTP and across processing facilities in the DOE complex. Two key technical areas were identified where testing results were needed to improve the technical basis by reducing the uncertainty due to extrapolating existing literature results. The first technical need was to quantify the role of slurry particles in small breaches where the slurry particles may plug and result in substantially reduced, or even negligible, respirable fraction formed by high-pressure sprays. The second technical need was to determine the aerosol droplet size distribution and volume from prototypic breaches and fluids, specifically including sprays from larger breaches with slurries where data from the literature are scarce. To address these technical areas, small- and large-scale test stands were constructed and operated with simulants to determine aerosol release fractions and net generation rates from a range of breach sizes and geometries. The properties of the simulants represented the range of properties expected in the WTP process streams and included water, sodium salt solutions, slurries containing boehmite or gibbsite, and a hazardous chemical simulant. The effect of antifoam agents was assessed with most of the simulants. Orifices included round holes and
Small-Scale Spray Releases: Initial Aerosol Test Results
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mahoney, Lenna A.; Gauglitz, Phillip A.; Kimura, Marcia L.; Brown, Garrett N.; Kurath, Dean E.; Buchmiller, William C.; Smith, Dennese M.; Blanchard, Jeremy; Song, Chen; Daniel, Richard C.; Wells, Beric E.; Tran, Diana N.; Burns, Carolyn A.
2012-11-01
One of the events postulated in the hazard analysis at the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) and other U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities is a breach in process piping that produces aerosols with droplet sizes in the respirable range. The current approach for predicting the size and concentration of aerosols produced in a spray leak involves extrapolating from correlations reported in the literature. These correlations are based on results obtained from small engineered spray nozzles using pure liquids with Newtonian fluid behavior. The narrow ranges of physical properties on which the correlations are based do not cover the wide range of slurries and viscous materials that will be processed in the WTP and across processing facilities in the DOE complex. Two key technical areas were identified where testing results were needed to improve the technical basis by reducing the uncertainty due to extrapolating existing literature results. The first technical need was to quantify the role of slurry particles in small breaches where the slurry particles may plug and result in substantially reduced, or even negligible, respirable fraction formed by high-pressure sprays. The second technical need was to determine the aerosol droplet size distribution and volume from prototypic breaches and fluids, specifically including sprays from larger breaches with slurries where data from the literature are scarce. To address these technical areas, small- and large-scale test stands were constructed and operated with simulants to determine aerosol release fractions and generation rates from a range of breach sizes and geometries. The properties of the simulants represented the range of properties expected in the WTP process streams and included water, sodium salt solutions, slurries containing boehmite or gibbsite, and a hazardous chemical simulant. The effect of anti-foam agents was assessed with most of the simulants. Orifices included round holes and
Large-Scale Spray Releases: Initial Aerosol Test Results
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schonewill, Philip P.; Gauglitz, Phillip A.; Bontha, Jagannadha R.; Daniel, Richard C.; Kurath, Dean E.; Adkins, Harold E.; Billing, Justin M.; Burns, Carolyn A.; Davis, James M.; Enderlin, Carl W.; Fischer, Christopher M.; Jenks, Jeromy WJ; Lukins, Craig D.; MacFarlan, Paul J.; Shutthanandan, Janani I.; Smith, Dennese M.
2012-12-01
One of the events postulated in the hazard analysis at the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) and other U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities is a breach in process piping that produces aerosols with droplet sizes in the respirable range. The current approach for predicting the size and concentration of aerosols produced in a spray leak involves extrapolating from correlations reported in the literature. These correlations are based on results obtained from small engineered spray nozzles using pure liquids with Newtonian fluid behavior. The narrow ranges of physical properties on which the correlations are based do not cover the wide range of slurries and viscous materials that will be processed in the WTP and across processing facilities in the DOE complex. Two key technical areas were identified where testing results were needed to improve the technical basis by reducing the uncertainty due to extrapolating existing literature results. The first technical need was to quantify the role of slurry particles in small breaches where the slurry particles may plug and result in substantially reduced, or even negligible, respirable fraction formed by high-pressure sprays. The second technical need was to determine the aerosol droplet size distribution and volume from prototypic breaches and fluids, specifically including sprays from larger breaches with slurries where data from the literature are scarce. To address these technical areas, small- and large-scale test stands were constructed and operated with simulants to determine aerosol release fractions and generation rates from a range of breach sizes and geometries. The properties of the simulants represented the range of properties expected in the WTP process streams and included water, sodium salt solutions, slurries containing boehmite or gibbsite, and a hazardous chemical simulant. The effect of anti-foam agents was assessed with most of the simulants. Orifices included round holes and
Tang, Qingxin; Bo, Yanchen; Zhu, Yuxin
2016-04-01
Merging multisensor aerosol optical depth (AOD) products is an effective way to produce more spatiotemporally complete and accurate AOD products. A spatiotemporal statistical data fusion framework based on a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method was developed for merging satellite AOD products in East Asia. The advantages of the presented merging framework are that it not only utilizes the spatiotemporal autocorrelations but also explicitly incorporates the uncertainties of the AOD products being merged. The satellite AOD products used for merging are the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5.1 Level-2 AOD products (MOD04_L2) and the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) Deep Blue Level 2 AOD products (SWDB_L2). The results show that the average completeness of the merged AOD data is 95.2%,which is significantly superior to the completeness of MOD04_L2 (22.9%) and SWDB_L2 (20.2%). By comparing the merged AOD to the Aerosol Robotic Network AOD records, the results show that the correlation coefficient (0.75), root-mean-square error (0.29), and mean bias (0.068) of the merged AOD are close to those (the correlation coefficient (0.82), root-mean-square error (0.19), and mean bias (0.059)) of the MODIS AOD. In the regions where both MODIS and SeaWiFS have valid observations, the accuracy of the merged AOD is higher than those of MODIS and SeaWiFS AODs. Even in regions where both MODIS and SeaWiFS AODs are missing, the accuracy of the merged AOD is also close to the accuracy of the regions where both MODIS and SeaWiFS have valid observations.
The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission aerosol release and the transport program
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Silberberg, M; Kress, T [Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States); Gieseke, J [Batelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, OH (United States)
1977-01-01
An overview is presented of the U.S.N.R.C. research program for providing experimentally verified, quantitative methods for estimating the release and transport of sodium and radionuclide aerosols following postulated accidents. The program is directed towards radiological consequence assessment, however a number of aerosol behavior mechanisms being studied are applicable to LMFBR operational considerations. Related theoretical and experimental work on aerosol formation, agglomeration, settling and plating is noted. (author)
Characteristics of the aerosols released to the environment after a severe PWR accident
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lhiaubet, G.; Manesse, D.
1988-05-01
In the event of a postulated severe accident on a pressurized water reactor (PWR) involving fuel degradation, gases and aerosols containing radioactive products could be released, with short, medium and long term consequences for the population and the environment. Under such accident conditions, the ESCADRE code system, developed at IPSN (Institute for Nuclear Safety and Protection) can be used to calculate the properties of the substances released and, especially with the AEROSOLS/B2 code, the main characteristics of the aerosols (concentration, size distribution, composition). For conditions representative of severe PWR accidents, by varying different main parameters (structural material aerosols, steam condensation in the containment, etc...), indications are given on the range of characteristics of the aerosols (containing notably Cs, Te, Sr, Ru, etc...) released to the atmosphere. Information is also given on how more accurate data (especially on the chemical forms) will be obtainable in the framework of current or planned experimental programs (HEVA, PITEAS, PHEBUS PF, etc...) [fr
Halogenation processes of secondary organic aerosol and implications on halogen release mechanisms
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Ofner
2012-07-01
Full Text Available Reactive halogen species (RHS, such as X·, X_{2} and HOX containing X = chlorine and/or bromine, are released by various sources like photo-activated sea-salt aerosol or from salt pans, and salt lakes. Despite many studies of RHS reactions, the potential of RHS reacting with secondary organic aerosol (SOA and organic aerosol derived from biomass-burning (BBOA has been neglected. Such reactions can constitute sources of gaseous organohalogen compounds or halogenated organic matter in the tropospheric boundary layer and can influence physicochemical properties of atmospheric aerosols.
Model SOA from α-pinene, catechol, and guaiacol was used to study heterogeneous interactions with RHS. Particles were exposed to molecular chlorine and bromine in an aerosol smog-chamber in the presence of UV/VIS irradiation and to RHS, released from simulated natural halogen sources like salt pans. Subsequently, the aerosol was characterized in detail using a variety of physicochemical and spectroscopic methods. Fundamental features were correlated with heterogeneous halogenation, which results in new functional groups (FTIR spectroscopy, changes UV/VIS absorption, chemical composition (ultrahigh resolution mass spectroscopy (ICR-FT/MS, or aerosol size distribution. However, the halogen release mechanisms were also found to be affected by the presence of organic aerosol. Those interaction processes, changing chemical and physical properties of the aerosol are likely to influence e.g. the ability of the aerosol to act as cloud condensation nuclei, its potential to adsorb other gases with low-volatility, or its contribution to radiative forcing and ultimately the Earth's radiation balance.
LMFBR aerosol release and transport program. Quarterly progress report, July-September 1981
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kress, T.S.; Tobias, M.L.
1982-01-01
This report summarizes progress for the Aerosol Release and Transport Program sponsored by the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, Division of Accident Evaluation of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the period July-September 1981. Topics discussed include (1) preparations for under-sodium tests at the Fast Aerosol Simulant Test Facility, (2) progress in interpretation of Oak Ridge National Laboratory-Sandia Laboratory normalization test results, (3) U 3 O 8 in steam (light-water reactor accident) aerosol experiments conducted in the Nuclear Safety Power Plant, (4) experiments on B 2 O 3 and SiO 2 aerosols at the Containment Research Installation-II Facility, (5) fuel-melting tests in small-scale experimental facilities for the core-melt aerosol program, (6) analytical comparison of simple adiabatic nonlinear and linear analytical models of bubble oscillation phenomena with experimental data
Rajaona, Harizo; Septier, François; Armand, Patrick; Delignon, Yves; Olry, Christophe; Albergel, Armand; Moussafir, Jacques
2015-12-01
In the eventuality of an accidental or intentional atmospheric release, the reconstruction of the source term using measurements from a set of sensors is an important and challenging inverse problem. A rapid and accurate estimation of the source allows faster and more efficient action for first-response teams, in addition to providing better damage assessment. This paper presents a Bayesian probabilistic approach to estimate the location and the temporal emission profile of a pointwise source. The release rate is evaluated analytically by using a Gaussian assumption on its prior distribution, and is enhanced with a positivity constraint to improve the estimation. The source location is obtained by the means of an advanced iterative Monte-Carlo technique called Adaptive Multiple Importance Sampling (AMIS), which uses a recycling process at each iteration to accelerate its convergence. The proposed methodology is tested using synthetic and real concentration data in the framework of the Fusion Field Trials 2007 (FFT-07) experiment. The quality of the obtained results is comparable to those coming from the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, a popular Bayesian method used for source estimation. Moreover, the adaptive processing of the AMIS provides a better sampling efficiency by reusing all the generated samples.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Losert, Sabrina; Hess, Adrian [Empa Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, Laboratory for Analytical Chemistry (Switzerland); Ilari, Gabriele [Empa Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, Electron Microscopy Center (Switzerland); Goetz, Natalie von, E-mail: natalie.von.goetz@chem.ethz.ch; Hungerbuehler, Konrad [ETH Zürich Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich, Institute for Chemical and Bioengineering (Switzerland)
2015-07-15
Nanoparticle-containing sprays are a critical class of consumer products, since human exposure may occur by inhalation of nanoparticles (NP) in the generated aerosols. In this work, the suspension and the released aerosol of six different commercially available consumer spray products were analyzed. Next to a broad spectrum of analytical methods for the characterization of the suspension, a standardized setup for the analysis of aerosol has been used. In addition, a new online coupling technique (SMPS–ICPMS) for the simultaneous analysis of particle size and elemental composition of aerosol particles has been applied. Results obtained with this new method were confirmed by other well-established techniques. Comparison of particles in the original suspensions and in the generated aerosol showed that during spraying single particles of size less than 20 nm had been formed, even though in none of the suspensions particles of size less than 280 nm were present (Aerosol size range scanned: 7–300 nm). Both pump sprays and propellant gas sprays were analyzed and both released particles in the nm size range. Also, both water-based and organic solvent-based sprays released NP. However, a trend was observed that spraying an aqueous suspension contained in a pump spray dispenser after drying resulted in bigger agglomerates than spraying organic suspensions in propellant gas dispensers.
Small-Scale Spray Releases: Additional Aerosol Test Results
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schonewill, Philip P.; Gauglitz, Phillip A.; Kimura, Marcia L.; Brown, G. N.; Mahoney, Lenna A.; Tran, Diana N.; Burns, Carolyn A.; Kurath, Dean E.
2013-08-01
One of the events postulated in the hazard analysis at the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) and other U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities is a breach in process piping that produces aerosols with droplet sizes in the respirable range. The current approach for predicting the size and concentration of aerosols produced in a spray leak involves extrapolating from correlations reported in the literature. These correlations are based on results obtained from small engineered spray nozzles using pure liquids with Newtonian fluid behavior. The narrow ranges of physical properties on which the correlations are based do not cover the wide range of slurries and viscous materials that will be processed in the WTP and across processing facilities in the DOE complex. To expand the data set upon which the WTP accident and safety analyses were based, an aerosol spray leak testing program was conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PNNL’s test program addressed two key technical areas to improve the WTP methodology (Larson and Allen 2010). The first technical area was to quantify the role of slurry particles in small breaches where slurry particles may plug the hole and prevent high-pressure sprays. The results from an effort to address this first technical area can be found in Mahoney et al. (2012a). The second technical area was to determine aerosol droplet size distribution and total droplet volume from prototypic breaches and fluids, including sprays from larger breaches and sprays of slurries for which literature data are largely absent. To address the second technical area, the testing program collected aerosol generation data at two scales, commonly referred to as small-scale and large-scale. The small-scale testing and resultant data are described in Mahoney et al. (2012b) and the large-scale testing and resultant data are presented in Schonewill et al. (2012). In tests at both scales, simulants were used to mimic the
Large-Scale Spray Releases: Additional Aerosol Test Results
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Daniel, Richard C.; Gauglitz, Phillip A.; Burns, Carolyn A.; Fountain, Matthew S.; Shimskey, Rick W.; Billing, Justin M.; Bontha, Jagannadha R.; Kurath, Dean E.; Jenks, Jeromy WJ; MacFarlan, Paul J.; Mahoney, Lenna A.
2013-08-01
One of the events postulated in the hazard analysis for the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) and other U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities is a breach in process piping that produces aerosols with droplet sizes in the respirable range. The current approach for predicting the size and concentration of aerosols produced in a spray leak event involves extrapolating from correlations reported in the literature. These correlations are based on results obtained from small engineered spray nozzles using pure liquids that behave as a Newtonian fluid. The narrow ranges of physical properties on which the correlations are based do not cover the wide range of slurries and viscous materials that will be processed in the WTP and in processing facilities across the DOE complex. To expand the data set upon which the WTP accident and safety analyses were based, an aerosol spray leak testing program was conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PNNL’s test program addressed two key technical areas to improve the WTP methodology (Larson and Allen 2010). The first technical area was to quantify the role of slurry particles in small breaches where slurry particles may plug the hole and prevent high-pressure sprays. The results from an effort to address this first technical area can be found in Mahoney et al. (2012a). The second technical area was to determine aerosol droplet size distribution and total droplet volume from prototypic breaches and fluids, including sprays from larger breaches and sprays of slurries for which literature data are mostly absent. To address the second technical area, the testing program collected aerosol generation data at two scales, commonly referred to as small-scale and large-scale testing. The small-scale testing and resultant data are described in Mahoney et al. (2012b), and the large-scale testing and resultant data are presented in Schonewill et al. (2012). In tests at both scales, simulants were used
Monitoring of the release of gaseous and aerosol-bound radioactive materials. Pt. 2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1992-01-01
KTA 1503 contains requirements on technical installations and supplementary organizational measures considered necessary in order to monitor the release of gaseous and aerosol-bound radioactive materials. It consists of part 1: Monitoring of the release of radioactive materials together with stack gas during normal operation; part 2: Monitoring of the release of radioactive materials together with stack gas in the event of incidents; part 3: Monitoring of radioactive materials not released together with stack gas. The concept on which this rule is based is to ensure that in the case of incidents during which the result of effluent monitoring remains meaningful, such monitoring can be reliably performed. (orig./HSCH) [de
Experiment of aerosol-release time for a novel automatic metered dose inhaler
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mingrong Zhang
2016-05-01
Full Text Available The objective of this study was to evaluate the aerosol-release time in the development of a new automatic adapter for metered dose inhaler. With this device, regular manually operated metered dose inhalers become automatic. During the study, an inhalation simulator was designed and tested with the newly developed mechatronic system. By adjusting the volume and the pressure of the vacuum tank, most human inhalation waveforms were able to simulate. As an example, regular quick-deep and slow-deep waveforms were matched within reasonable accuracy. Finally, with the help of dynamic image processing, the aerosol-release time (Tr was carefully measured and fully discussed, including the switch-on time (Ts, the mechatronics-hysteresis (Tm and the intentional-delay (Ti. Under slow-deep inhalation condition which is suitable for metered dose inhaler medicine delivery, the switch-on flow-rate could reach as low as 10 L/min, and the corresponding switch-on time was approximately 0.20 s. While the mechatronics-hysteresis depended on the brand of metered dose inhaler, assuming there was no intentional-delay, the aerosol-release time could be as low as 0.40 and 0.60 s, respectively, for two commercially available metered dose inhalers studied in this article. Therefore, this newly developed mechatronic adapter system could ensure aerosol-release time (Tr within satisfactory range for metered dose inhalers.
Experiment of aerosol-release time for a novel automatic metered dose inhaler
Mingrong Zhang; Songhao Wang; Yu-Ching Yang
2016-01-01
The objective of this study was to evaluate the aerosol-release time in the development of a new automatic adapter for metered dose inhaler. With this device, regular manually operated metered dose inhalers become automatic. During the study, an inhalation simulator was designed and tested with the newly developed mechatronic system. By adjusting the volume and the pressure of the vacuum tank, most human inhalation waveforms were able to simulate. As an example, regular quick-deep and slow-de...
Aerosol material release rates from zircaloy-4 at temperatures from 2000 to 22000C
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mulpuru, S.R.; Wren, D.J.; Rondeau, R.K.
1987-01-01
During some postulated severe accidents involving loss of coolant and loss of emergency coolant injection, the temperatures in a CANDU reactor fuel channel become high enough to cause failure and melting of the Zircaloy fuel cladding. At such high temperatures, vapors of fission products and structural (fuel and cladding) materials will be released into the coolant steam and hydrogen mixture. These vapors will condense as cooler conditions are encountered downstream. The vapors from structural materials are relatively involatile; therefore, they will condense readily into aerosol particles. These particles, in turn, will provide sites for the condensation of the more volatile fission products. The aerosol transport of fission products in the primary heat transport system (PHTS) will thus be influenced by the structural material release rates. As part of an ongoing program to develop predictive tools for aerosol and associated fission product transport through the PHTS, experiments have been conducted to measure the vapor mass release rates of the alloying elements from Zircaloy-4 at high temperatures. The paper presents the results and analysis of these experiments
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Tichý, Ondřej; Šmídl, Václav; Hofman, Radek; Šindelářová, Kateřina; Hýža, M.; Stohl, A.
2017-01-01
Roč. 17, č. 20 (2017), s. 12677-12696 ISSN 1680-7316 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 7F14287 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Bayesian inverse modeling * iodine-131 * consequences of the iodine release Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 5.318, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/AS/tichy-0480506.pdf
Aerosol release from a hot sodium pool and behaviour in inert gas atmosphere
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sauter, H.; Schuetz, W.
1986-01-01
In the KfK-NALA program, experiments were carried out on the subject of aerosol release from a contaminated sodium pool into inert gas atmosphere under various conditions. Besides the determination of retention factors for fuel and fission products, the sodium aerosol system was investigated and characterized, concerning aerosol generation (evaporation rate), particle size, mass concentration, and deposition behaviour. Pool temperatures were varied between 700 and 1000 K at different geometrical and convective conditions. Technical scale experiments with a 531-cm 2 pool surface area were performed at natural convection in a 2.2-m 3 heated vessel, as well as additional small scale experiments at forced convection and 38.5-cm 2 pool surface area. A best-fit formula is given for the specific evaporation rate into a 400 K argon atmosphere. Approximately, the very convenient relation (dm/dt) (kg/m 2 /h) = 0.1 p (mm Hg) was found. The sodium aerosol diameter lay between 0.6 μm, less than 1 sec after production, and 2.5 μm at maximum concentration. The deposition behaviour was characterized by very small quantities ( 80%) on the bottom cover of the vessel. In the model theoretic studies with the PARDISEKO code, calculations were performed of the mass concentration, particle diameter and deposition behaviour. Agreement with the experimental values could not be achieved until a modulus was introduced to allow for turbulent deposition. (author)
Results of aerosol code comparisons with releases from ACE MCCI tests
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fink, J.K.; Corradini, M.; Hidaka, A.; Hontanon, E.; Mignanelli, M.A.; Schroedl, E.; Strizhov, V.
1992-01-01
Results of aerosol release calculations by six groups from six countries are compared with the releases from ACE MCCI Test L6. The codes used for these calculations included: SOLGASMIX-PV, SOLGASMIX Reactor 1986, CORCON.UW, VANESA 1.01, and CORCON mod2.04/VANESA 1.01. Calculations were performed with the standard VANESA 1.01 code and with modifications to the VANESA code such as the inclusion of various zirconium-silica chemical reactions. Comparisons of results from these calculations were made with Test L6 release fractions for U, Zr, Si, the fission-product elements Te, Ba, Sr, Ce, La, Mo and control materials Ag, In, and Ru. Reasonable agreement was obtained between calculations and Test L6 results for the volatile elements Ag, In and Te. Calculated releases of the low volatility fission products ranged from within an order of magnitude to five orders of magnitude of Test L6 values. Releases were over and underestimated by calculations. Poorest agreements were obtained for Mo and Si
Large methane releases lead to strong aerosol forcing and reduced cloudiness
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
T. Kurtén
2011-07-01
Full Text Available The release of vast quantities of methane into the atmosphere as a result of clathrate destabilization is a potential mechanism for rapid amplification of global warming. Previous studies have calculated the enhanced warming based mainly on the radiative effect of the methane itself, with smaller contributions from the associated carbon dioxide or ozone increases. Here, we study the effect of strongly elevated methane (CH_{4} levels on oxidant and aerosol particle concentrations using a combination of chemistry-transport and general circulation models. A 10-fold increase in methane concentrations is predicted to significantly decrease hydroxyl radical (OH concentrations, while moderately increasing ozone (O_{3}. These changes lead to a 70 % increase in the atmospheric lifetime of methane, and an 18 % decrease in global mean cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC. The CDNC change causes a radiative forcing that is comparable in magnitude to the longwave radiative forcing ("enhanced greenhouse effect" of the added methane. Together, the indirect CH_{4}-O_{3} and CH_{4}-OH-aerosol forcings could more than double the warming effect of large methane increases. Our findings may help explain the anomalously large temperature changes associated with historic methane releases.
Release the BEESTS: Bayesian Estimation of Ex-Gaussian STop-Signal Reaction Time Distributions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dora eMatzke
2013-12-01
Full Text Available The stop-signal paradigm is frequently used to study response inhibition. Inthis paradigm, participants perform a two-choice response time task wherethe primary task is occasionally interrupted by a stop-signal that promptsparticipants to withhold their response. The primary goal is to estimatethe latency of the unobservable stop response (stop signal reaction timeor SSRT. Recently, Matzke, Dolan, Logan, Brown, and Wagenmakers (inpress have developed a Bayesian parametric approach that allows for theestimation of the entire distribution of SSRTs. The Bayesian parametricapproach assumes that SSRTs are ex-Gaussian distributed and uses Markovchain Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the parameters of the SSRT distri-bution. Here we present an efficient and user-friendly software implementa-tion of the Bayesian parametric approach —BEESTS— that can be appliedto individual as well as hierarchical stop-signal data. BEESTS comes withan easy-to-use graphical user interface and provides users with summarystatistics of the posterior distribution of the parameters as well various diag-nostic tools to assess the quality of the parameter estimates. The softwareis open source and runs on Windows and OS X operating systems. In sum,BEESTS allows experimental and clinical psychologists to estimate entiredistributions of SSRTs and hence facilitates the more rigorous analysis ofstop-signal data.
Investigation of molten corium-concrete interaction phenomena and aerosol release
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Spencer, B.W.; Thompson, D.H.; Armstrong, D.R.; Fink, J.K.; Gunther, W.H.; Kilsdonk, D.J.; Sehgal, B.R.
1987-01-01
The Electric Power Research Institute is sponsoring a program of laboratory investigations at Argonne National Laboratory to study the interaction between molten core materials and reactor concrete basemats during postulated severe reactor accidents, with particular emphasis on measurements of the magnitude and chemical species present in the aerosol releases. The approach in this program is to sustain internal heat generation in reactor-material corium using direct electrical heating and to develop test operating and diagnostics capabilities with a series of small- and intermediate-scale scoping tests followed by fully instrumented large-scale testing. Real reactor materials (UO 2 , ZrO 2 , oxides of stainless steel, plus metallics) are used, with small amounts of La 2 O 3 , BaO, and SrO added to simulate nonvolatile fission products. In intermediate-scale scoping tests completed to date, corium inventories of up to 29 kg have been heated with power inputs in excess of 1 kW/kg melt. The measured concrete ablation rates have ranged from 0.9 to 3.9 mm/minute. Aerosol samples have been examined using a scanning electron microscope and show submicron particles, 2-6 micrometer spheres, and agglomerates that range from a few micrometers to string 13 micrometers in length
Large methane releases lead to strong aerosol forcing and reduced cloudiness
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kurten, T.; Zhou, L.; Makkonen, R.
2011-01-01
forcing that is comparable in magnitude to the long-wave radiative forcing ("enhanced greenhouse effect") of the added methane. Together, the indirect CH4-O-3 and CH4-OHaerosol forcings could more than double the warming effect of large methane increases. Our findings may help explain the anomalously......The release of vast quantities of methane into the atmosphere as a result of clathrate destabilization is a potential mechanism for rapid amplification of global warming. Previous studies have calculated the enhanced warming based mainly on the radiative effect of the methane itself, with smaller...... contributions from the associated carbon dioxide or ozone increases. Here, we study the effect of strongly elevated methane (CH4) levels on oxidant and aerosol particle concentrations using a combination of chemistry-transport and general circulation models. A 10-fold increase in methane concentrations...
Tichý, Ondřej; Šmídl, Václav; Hofman, Radek; Šindelářová, Kateřina; Hýža, Miroslav; Stohl, Andreas
2017-10-01
In the fall of 2011, iodine-131 (131I) was detected at several radionuclide monitoring stations in central Europe. After investigation, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was informed by Hungarian authorities that 131I was released from the Institute of Isotopes Ltd. in Budapest, Hungary. It was reported that a total activity of 342 GBq of 131I was emitted between 8 September and 16 November 2011. In this study, we use the ambient concentration measurements of 131I to determine the location of the release as well as its magnitude and temporal variation. As the location of the release and an estimate of the source strength became eventually known, this accident represents a realistic test case for inversion models. For our source reconstruction, we use no prior knowledge. Instead, we estimate the source location and emission variation using only the available 131I measurements. Subsequently, we use the partial information about the source term available from the Hungarian authorities for validation of our results. For the source determination, we first perform backward runs of atmospheric transport models and obtain source-receptor sensitivity (SRS) matrices for each grid cell of our study domain. We use two dispersion models, FLEXPART and Hysplit, driven with meteorological analysis data from the global forecast system (GFS) and from European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) weather forecast models. Second, we use a recently developed inverse method, least-squares with adaptive prior covariance (LS-APC), to determine the 131I emissions and their temporal variation from the measurements and computed SRS matrices. For each grid cell of our simulation domain, we evaluate the probability that the release was generated in that cell using Bayesian model selection. The model selection procedure also provides information about the most suitable dispersion model for the source term reconstruction. Third, we select the most probable location of
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
O. Tichý
2017-10-01
Full Text Available In the fall of 2011, iodine-131 (131I was detected at several radionuclide monitoring stations in central Europe. After investigation, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA was informed by Hungarian authorities that 131I was released from the Institute of Isotopes Ltd. in Budapest, Hungary. It was reported that a total activity of 342 GBq of 131I was emitted between 8 September and 16 November 2011. In this study, we use the ambient concentration measurements of 131I to determine the location of the release as well as its magnitude and temporal variation. As the location of the release and an estimate of the source strength became eventually known, this accident represents a realistic test case for inversion models. For our source reconstruction, we use no prior knowledge. Instead, we estimate the source location and emission variation using only the available 131I measurements. Subsequently, we use the partial information about the source term available from the Hungarian authorities for validation of our results. For the source determination, we first perform backward runs of atmospheric transport models and obtain source-receptor sensitivity (SRS matrices for each grid cell of our study domain. We use two dispersion models, FLEXPART and Hysplit, driven with meteorological analysis data from the global forecast system (GFS and from European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF weather forecast models. Second, we use a recently developed inverse method, least-squares with adaptive prior covariance (LS-APC, to determine the 131I emissions and their temporal variation from the measurements and computed SRS matrices. For each grid cell of our simulation domain, we evaluate the probability that the release was generated in that cell using Bayesian model selection. The model selection procedure also provides information about the most suitable dispersion model for the source term reconstruction. Third, we select the most
Aerosol and activity release from contaminated sodium pools in inert gas atomosphere
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sauter, H.; Schuetz, W.
1983-07-01
A description is given of parameters and results from technical scale experiments (1 kg Na, 531 cm 2 pool surface area, 481-632 0 C pool temperature, UO 2 -, NaI-, SrO-admixtures from 0.2 up to 20 g, 2.2 m 3 vessel to be heated up to 130 0 C) and from laboratory scale experiments in a glove box (100 g Na, 38.5 cm 2 pool surface area, 550 0 C pool temperature, UO 2 and SrO admixtures from 0.2 up to 5 g, with the released quantities being sucked into cold traps and filters). The main objective of the tests was to determine the retention factors RF for U, I and Sr including their time behaviour as well as differences in local deposition. Liquid sodium has a very high retention capability for U and Sr; in the early phase (about 10% of the pool vaporized), RF (U) is of the order of 10 3 to 10 4 , and RF (Sr) of the order of 500, with increasing tendencies with time. RF (I), however, was found to be between 1 and 10. The iodine release may be explained by evaporation, whereas strong evidence exists for mechanical release processes (small particle release) in case of UO 2 and SrO. A best-fit formula is given for the specific evaporation rate of sodium, based on its proportionality to the vapor pressure. The sodium aerosol system was investigated with respect to mass concentration, particle size spectrum and deposition behaviour. Model calculations were performed using the PARDISEKO computer code. Agreement with the experiment was achieved after introducing a turbulent deposition module into the code. (orig./HP) [de
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Marzouk, Youssef; Fast P. (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA); Kraus, M. (Peterson AFB, CO); Ray, J. P.
2006-01-01
Terrorist attacks using an aerosolized pathogen preparation have gained credibility as a national security concern after the anthrax attacks of 2001. The ability to characterize such attacks, i.e., to estimate the number of people infected, the time of infection, and the average dose received, is important when planning a medical response. We address this question of characterization by formulating a Bayesian inverse problem predicated on a short time-series of diagnosed patients exhibiting symptoms. To be of relevance to response planning, we limit ourselves to 3-5 days of data. In tests performed with anthrax as the pathogen, we find that these data are usually sufficient, especially if the model of the outbreak used in the inverse problem is an accurate one. In some cases the scarcity of data may initially support outbreak characterizations at odds with the true one, but with sufficient data the correct inferences are recovered; in other words, the inverse problem posed and its solution methodology are consistent. We also explore the effect of model error-situations for which the model used in the inverse problem is only a partially accurate representation of the outbreak; here, the model predictions and the observations differ by more than a random noise. We find that while there is a consistent discrepancy between the inferred and the true characterizations, they are also close enough to be of relevance when planning a response.
Drop of canistered spent fuel segments into a deep borehole and subsequent aerosol release
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bantle, S.; Herbe, H.; Miu, J.
1991-09-01
The source term of the released aerosols is estimated. First, the number of failing canisters is calculated for the case of an axial symmetric canister (POLLUX) pile, and then, for the case of a 'zig-zag' pile, as found in reality. The weight-specific energy acting on the fuel - a measure for the degree of fuel fractioning - is determined from the acceleration acting on the pin segments. In the borehole prevails a steady-state flow pattern which is stimulated by the heat of the disposed waste canister, and is also influenced by the ventilation of the drift above the borehole. Based on this stationary flow pattern flow velocities are calculated by means of fluid mechanical methods. Further investigations deal with the unsteady case which occurs during and immediately after the canister drop as well as with the wake behind the canister. The most relevant result is that under the considered boundary conditions no release form the borehole into the repository is to be expected. (orig./HP) [de
Sparse Bayesian learning machine for real-time management of reservoir releases
Khalil, Abedalrazq; McKee, Mac; Kemblowski, Mariush; Asefa, Tirusew
2005-11-01
Water scarcity and uncertainties in forecasting future water availabilities present serious problems for basin-scale water management. These problems create a need for intelligent prediction models that learn and adapt to their environment in order to provide water managers with decision-relevant information related to the operation of river systems. This manuscript presents examples of state-of-the-art techniques for forecasting that combine excellent generalization properties and sparse representation within a Bayesian paradigm. The techniques are demonstrated as decision tools to enhance real-time water management. A relevance vector machine, which is a probabilistic model, has been used in an online fashion to provide confident forecasts given knowledge of some state and exogenous conditions. In practical applications, online algorithms should recognize changes in the input space and account for drift in system behavior. Support vectors machines lend themselves particularly well to the detection of drift and hence to the initiation of adaptation in response to a recognized shift in system structure. The resulting model will normally have a structure and parameterization that suits the information content of the available data. The utility and practicality of this proposed approach have been demonstrated with an application in a real case study involving real-time operation of a reservoir in a river basin in southern Utah.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kajino, Mizuo [Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052 (Japan); RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science, 7-1-26 Minatojima-minamimachi, Chuo-ku, Kobe, Hyogo 650-0047 (Japan); Adachi, Kouji; Sekiyama, Tsuyoshi T.; Zaizen, Yuji; Igarashi, Yasuhito [Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052 (Japan)
2014-07-01
We recently revealed that the micro-physical properties of aerosols carrying the radioactive Cs released from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) at an early stage (March 14-15, 2011) of the accident could be very different from what we assumed previously: super-micron and non-hygroscopic at the early stage, whereas sub-micron and hygroscopic afterwards (at least later than March 20-22). In the study, two sensitivity simulations with the two different aerosol micro-physical properties were conducted using a regional scale meteorology- chemical transport model (NHM-Chem). The impact of the difference was quite significant. 17% (10-3%) of the radioactive Cs fell onto the ground by dry (wet) deposition processes, and the rest was deposited into the ocean or was transported out of the model domain, which is central and northern part of the main land of Japan under the assumption that Cs-bearing aerosols are non-hygroscopic and super-micron. On the other hand, 5.7% (11.3%) fell onto the ground by dry (wet) deposition, for the cases under the assumption that the Cs-bearing aerosols are hygroscopic and sub-micron. For the accurate simulation of the deposition of radionuclides, knowledge of the aerosol micro-physical properties is essential as well as the accuracy of the simulated wind fields and precipitation patterns. (authors)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lucas, Donald D.; Simpson, Matthew; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Baskett, Ronald L.
2017-01-01
Probability distribution functions (PDFs) of model inputs that affect the transport and dispersion of a trace gas released from a coastal California nuclear power plant are quantified using ensemble simulations, machine-learning algorithms, and Bayesian inversion. The PDFs are constrained by observations of tracer concentrations and account for uncertainty in meteorology, transport, diffusion, and emissions. Meteorological uncertainty is calculated using an ensemble of simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that samples five categories of model inputs (initialization time, boundary layer physics, land surface model, nudging options, and reanalysis data). The WRF output is used to drive tens of thousands of FLEXPART dispersion simulations that sample a uniform distribution of six emissions inputs. Machine-learning algorithms are trained on the ensemble data and used to quantify the sources of ensemble variability and to infer, via inverse modeling, the values of the 11 model inputs most consistent with tracer measurements. We find a substantial ensemble spread in tracer concentrations (factors of 10 to 10 3 ), most of which is due to changing emissions inputs (about 80 %), though the cumulative effects of meteorological variations are not negligible. The performance of the inverse method is verified using synthetic observations generated from arbitrarily selected simulations. When applied to measurements from a controlled tracer release experiment, the inverse method satisfactorily determines the location, start time, duration and amount. In a 2 km x 2 km area of possible locations, the actual location is determined to within 200 m. The start time is determined to within 5 min out of 2 h, and the duration to within 50 min out of 4 h. Over a range of release amounts of 10 to 1000 kg, the estimated amount exceeds the actual amount of 146 kg by only 32 kg. The inversion also estimates probabilities of different WRF configurations. To best match
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lucas, Donald D.; Simpson, Matthew; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Baskett, Ronald L. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA (United States)
2017-07-01
Probability distribution functions (PDFs) of model inputs that affect the transport and dispersion of a trace gas released from a coastal California nuclear power plant are quantified using ensemble simulations, machine-learning algorithms, and Bayesian inversion. The PDFs are constrained by observations of tracer concentrations and account for uncertainty in meteorology, transport, diffusion, and emissions. Meteorological uncertainty is calculated using an ensemble of simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that samples five categories of model inputs (initialization time, boundary layer physics, land surface model, nudging options, and reanalysis data). The WRF output is used to drive tens of thousands of FLEXPART dispersion simulations that sample a uniform distribution of six emissions inputs. Machine-learning algorithms are trained on the ensemble data and used to quantify the sources of ensemble variability and to infer, via inverse modeling, the values of the 11 model inputs most consistent with tracer measurements. We find a substantial ensemble spread in tracer concentrations (factors of 10 to 10{sup 3}), most of which is due to changing emissions inputs (about 80 %), though the cumulative effects of meteorological variations are not negligible. The performance of the inverse method is verified using synthetic observations generated from arbitrarily selected simulations. When applied to measurements from a controlled tracer release experiment, the inverse method satisfactorily determines the location, start time, duration and amount. In a 2 km x 2 km area of possible locations, the actual location is determined to within 200 m. The start time is determined to within 5 min out of 2 h, and the duration to within 50 min out of 4 h. Over a range of release amounts of 10 to 1000 kg, the estimated amount exceeds the actual amount of 146 kg by only 32 kg. The inversion also estimates probabilities of different WRF configurations. To best
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kleppe, John; Norris, William; Etezadi, Mehdi
2006-07-19
This contract was awarded in response to a proposal in which a deployable plume and aerosol release prediction and tracking system would be designed, fabricated, and tested. The system would gather real time atmospheric data and input it into a real time atmospheric model that could be used for plume predition and tracking. The system would be able to be quickly deployed by aircraft to points of interest or positioned for deployment by vehicles. The system would provide three dimensional (u, v, and w) wind vector data, inversion height measurements, surface wind information, classical weather station data, and solar radiation. The on-board real time computer model would provide the prediction of the behavior of plumes and released aerosols.
Tools to estimate PM2.5 mass have expanded in recent years, and now include: 1) stationary monitor readings, 2) Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model estimates, 3) Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) estimates from combined stationary monitor readings and CMAQ model output; and, ...
LMFBR aerosol release and transport program. Quarterly progress report, July--September 1975
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fontana, M.H.; Kress, T.S.; Adams, R.E.; Parsly, L.F.; Parker, G.W.
1976-04-01
Progress is summarized in the areas of capacitor discharge vaporizer (CDV) development, small-vessel fuel and fuel-simulant aerosol studies, large-vessel aerosol studies, HCDA bubble simulant tests, fuel-simulant response to CDV electrical energy deposition, bubble shape and rise behavior, and structural integrity of equipment cell liners
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Spencer, B.W.; Gunther, W.H.; Armstrong, D.R.; Thompson, D.H.; Chasanov, M.G.; Sehgal, B.R.
1986-01-01
A program of laboratory investigations has been undertaken at Argonne National Laboratory, under sponsorship of the Electric Power Research Institute, in which the interaction between molten core materials and concrete is studied, with particular emphasis on measurements of the magnitude and chemical species present in the aerosol releases. The experiment technique used in these investigations is direct electrical heating in which a high electric current is passed through the core debris to sustain the high-temperature melt condition for potentially long periods of time. In the scoping experiments completed to date, this technique has been successfully used for corium masses of 5 and 20 kg, generating an internal heating rate of 1 kw/kg and achieving melt temperatures of 2000C. Experiments have been performed both with a concrete base and also with a cooled base with the addition of H 2 /CO sparging gas to represent chemical processes in a stratified layer. An aerosol and gas sampling system is being used to collect aerosol samples. Test results are now becoming available including masses of aerosols, x-ray diffraction, and scanning electron microscope analyses
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Casella, Andrew M.; Loyalka, Sudarsham K.; Hanson, Brady D.
2007-01-01
By taking the differential forms of transport and equations of state, the equations describing aerosol transport in pinhole breaches can be solved directly using continuous models. The results are compared with discrete models.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jonas, R.
1988-09-01
CONTAIN is a computer code to analyze physical, chemical and radiological processes inside the reactor containment in the sequence of severe reactor accident. Modelling of the aerosol behaviour is included. We have improved the code by implementing a subroutine for turbulent deposition of aerosols. In contrast to previous calculations in which this effect was neglected, the computer results are in good agreement with sodium release experiments. If a typical friction velocity of 1 m/s is chosen, the computed aerosol mass median diameters and aerosol mass concentrations agree with the experimental results within a factor of 1.5 or 2, respectively. We have also found a good agreement between the CONTAIN calculations and results from other aerosol codes. (orig.) [de
Lefèvre, Jérôme; Menkes, Christophe; Bani, Philipson; Marchesiello, Patrick; Curci, Gabriele; Grell, Georg A.; Frouin, Robert
2016-08-01
The Melanesian Volcanic Arc (MVA) emits about 12 kT d- 1 of sulfur dioxide (SO2) to the atmosphere from continuous passive (non-explosive) volcanic degassing, which contributes 20% of the global SO2 emission from volcanoes. Here we assess, from up-to-date and long-term observations, the SO2 emission of the Ambrym volcano, one of the dominant volcanoes in the MVA, and we investigate its role as sulfate precursor on the regional distribution of aerosols, using both satellite observations and model results at 1° × 1° spatial resolution from WRF-Chem/GOCART. Without considering aerosol forcing on clouds, our model parameterizations for convection, vertical mixing and cloud properties provide a reliable chemical weather representation, making possible a cross-examination of model solution and observations. This preliminary work enables the identification of biases and limitations affecting both the model (missing sources) and satellite sensors and algorithms (for aerosol detection and classification) and leads to the implementation of improved transport and aerosol processes in the modeling system. On the one hand, the model confirms a 50% underestimation of SO2 emissions due to satellite swath sampling of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), consistent with field studies. The OMI irregular sampling also produces a level of noise that impairs its monitoring capacity during short-term volcanic events. On the other hand, the model reveals a large sensitivity on aerosol composition and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) due to choices of both the source function in WRF-Chem and size parameters for sea-salt in FlexAOD, the post-processor used to compute offline the simulated AOD. We then proceed to diagnosing the role of SO2 volcanic emission in the regional aerosol composition. The model shows that both dynamics and cloud properties associated with the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) have a large influence on the oxidation of SO2 and on the transport pathways of
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bourham, Mohamed A.; Gilligan, John G.
1999-08-14
Safety considerations in large future fusion reactors like ITER are important before licensing the reactor. Several scenarios are considered hazardous, which include safety of plasma-facing components during hard disruptions, high heat fluxes and thermal stresses during normal operation, accidental energy release, and aerosol formation and transport. Disruption events, in large tokamaks like ITER, are expected to produce local heat fluxes on plasma-facing components, which may exceed 100 GW/m{sup 2} over a period of about 0.1 ms. As a result, the surface temperature dramatically increases, which results in surface melting and vaporization, and produces thermal stresses and surface erosion. Plasma-facing components safety issues extends to cover a wide range of possible scenarios, including disruption severity and the impact of plasma-facing components on disruption parameters, accidental energy release and short/long term LOCA's, and formation of airborne particles by convective current transport during a LOVA (water/air ingress disruption) accident scenario. Study, and evaluation of, disruption-induced aerosol generation and mobilization is essential to characterize database on particulate formation and distribution for large future fusion tokamak reactor like ITER. In order to provide database relevant to ITER, the SIRENS electrothermal plasma facility at NCSU has been modified to closely simulate heat fluxes expected in ITER.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kelly, G.N.; Jones, J.A.; Simmonds, J.R.
1979-01-01
The radiological consequences of a wide range of notional accidental releases from a 1300 MW(e) LMFBR (Liquid Metal-cooled Fast Breeder Reactor) were assessed in a study published by the National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB) in 1977. In that study representative values were in general adopted for each of the important parameters while recognising that in reality they could vary considerably. The present study is concerned with the sensitivity of the predicted consequences to the physico-chemical form of the released aerosol. Of particular interest is the importance of a mixed sodium-transuranium element aerosol which may be formed in accidental releases of activity from sodium cooled FBRs. Two significant findings emerge from the study. First the predicted consequences in general are relatively insensitive to the range of physico-chemical forms analysed. For generic assessments therefore it is sufficient to assume the properties of the aerosol adopted in the initial study (1 μm AMAD and each element in the oxide form); the exception concerns the estimation of the incidence of early morbidity, and to a lesser extent early mortality, but only for a limited range of release composition. The second finding is that the radiological consequences are not, contrary to what might have been expected, significantly increased for the release of a mixed sodium-element aerosol
Schwarzenböck, A.; Mertes, S.; Heintzenberg, J.; Wobrock, W.; Laj, P.
The paper focuses on the redistribution of aerosol particles (APs) during the artificial nucleation and subsequent growth of ice crystals in a supercooled cloud. A significant number of the supercooled cloud droplets during icing periods (seeding agents: C 3H 8, CO 2) did not freeze as was presumed prior to the experiment but instead evaporated. The net mass flux of water vapour from the evaporating droplets to the nucleating ice crystals (Bergeron-Findeisen mechanism) led to the release of residual particles that simultaneously appeared in the interstitial phase. The strong decrease of the droplet residuals confirms the nucleation of ice particles on seeding germs without natural aerosol particles serving as ice nuclei. As the number of residual particles during the seedings did not drop to zero, other processes such as heterogeneous ice nucleation, spontaneous freezing, entrainment of supercooled droplets and diffusion to the created particle-free ice germs must have contributed to the experimental findings. During the icing periods, residual mass concentrations in the condensed phase dropped by a factor of 1.1-6.7, as compared to the unperturbed supercooled cloud. As the Bergeron-Findeisen process also occurs without artificial seeding in the atmosphere, this study demonstrated that the hydrometeors in mixed-phase clouds might be much cleaner than anticipated for the simple freezing process of supercooled droplets in tropospheric mid latitude clouds.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hong Lei
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Microencapsulation is highly attractive for oral drug delivery. Microparticles are a common form of drug carrier for this purpose. There is still a high demand on efficient methods to fabricate microparticles with uniform sizes and well-controlled particle properties. In this paper, uniform hydroxypropyl methylcellulose phthalate (HPMCP-based pharmaceutical microparticles loaded with either hydrophobic or hydrophilic model drugs have been directly formulated by using a unique aerosol technique, i.e., the microfluidic spray drying technology. A series of microparticles of controllable particle sizes, shapes, and structures are fabricated by tuning the solvent composition and drying temperature. It is found that a more volatile solvent and a higher drying temperature can result in fast evaporation rates to form microparticles of larger lateral size, more irregular shape, and denser matrix. The nature of the model drugs also plays an important role in determining particle properties. The drug release behaviors of the pharmaceutical microparticles are dependent on their structural properties and the nature of a specific drug, as well as sensitive to the pH value of the release medium. Most importantly, drugs in the microparticles obtained by using a more volatile solvent or a higher drying temperature can be well protected from degradation in harsh simulated gastric fluids due to the dense structures of the microparticles, while they can be fast-released in simulated intestinal fluids through particle dissolution. These pharmaceutical microparticles are potentially useful for site-specific (enteric delivery of orally-administered drugs.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jappe Frandsen, Flemming
2017-01-01
Deposit formation in utility boilers occurs via a number of consecutive steps; 1) release of critical elements like K, Na, Pb, Zn, S and Cl, 2) formation of gaseous species, fly ash and aerosols, 3) transport and adhesion of ash species, 4) deposit build-up and consolidation, and, finally, 5...... formation (slagging and fouling) on superheater tubes, leading to a potential reduction in heat transfer efficiency to the water/steam cycle, or, to chemical attack (corrosion) or physical wear (erosion) of superheater tubes. These problems may give rise to irregular operation, or even costly shutdowns...... of combustion units.Through several years, high quality research has been conducted on characterization of fuels, ashes and deposit formation in utility boilers fired with coal, biomass and waste fractions. Huge amounts of experimental data have been reported, from such work, but the fact...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bhanti, D.P.; Malvankar, S.V.; Kotrappa, P.; Somasundaram, S.; Raghunath, B.; Curtay, A.M.
1988-12-01
One of the upper limit accidents usually considered in the safety analysis of a fuel reprocessing plant is an accidental explosion, followed by a fire, of an ion exchange column containing resin loaded with large quantities of plutonium. In such accidents, a certain fraction (release factor) of Pu is released in the form of an aerosol into the ventilation system, and finally to the environment through HEPA filters and the stack. The present study was undertaken to determine the aerosol release factor for Pu in the process cell of a typical fuel reprocessing plant. Geometrically similar scaled-down models of three different sizes were built, and suitably scaled-down quantities of resin loaded with thorium in nitric acid medium were burnt in these model cells. Thorium was used in place of Pu because of its physical and chemical similarities with Pu. The release factor was obtained by comparing the amount of Th in air with the total. The study also dealt with aerosol characteristics and kinematics of process of fire. The aerosol release factors for the three models were found to lie in the range 0.01-0.07%, and varied non-monotonically with model size. The analysis of scaled down results in conjunction with simplified aerosol modelling yielded the release factor for the actual cell conditions as 0.012% with an upper limit value of 0.1%. The particle size analysis based on Th-radioactivity and particle-mass indicated nonuniform tagging of Th to aerosol particles. These particles were irregularly shaped, but not as long chain-like aggregates. The study proposes, with a reasonable degree of conservatism, the release factor of 0.1% for such fires, and aerosol parameters, AMAD and sigma/sub g/, as 2 m and 2 respectively. However, for situations significantly different from the present one, the release factor of 1% recommended by the American National Standards Institute may be used with a greater degree of confidence in the light of the present work.
Radionuclide release and aerosol generation during core debris interactions with concrete
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Powers, D.A.
1986-01-01
During severe accidents at nuclear power plants, it is possible for the reactor fuel to melt and penetrate the reactor vessel. This can lead to vigorous interaction of core materials (UO 2 , ZrO 2 , Zr, and stainless steel) with structural concrete. Sparging of the molten core debris by gases (H 2 O and CO 2 ) liberated from the concrete can lead to rapid release of radionuclides from the core debris. A theoretical description of this release process has been developed and is called the VANESA model. The treatments in the VANESA model of the thermodynamics of radionuclide vaporization and the kinetic barriers to vaporization will be described. Predictions obtained from the model will be compared to the results of tests of core debris/concrete interactions
Large methane releases lead to strong aerosol forcing and reduced cloudiness
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kurten, T.; Zhou, L.; Makkonen, R.
2011-01-01
The release of vast quantities of methane into the atmosphere as a result of clathrate destabilization is a potential mechanism for rapid amplification of global warming. Previous studies have calculated the enhanced warming based mainly on the radiative effect of the methane itself, with smaller...... is predicted to significantly decrease hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations, while moderately increasing ozone (O-3). These changes lead to a 70% increase in the atmospheric lifetime of methane, and an 18% decrease in global mean cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC). The CDNC change causes a radiative...... forcing that is comparable in magnitude to the long-wave radiative forcing ("enhanced greenhouse effect") of the added methane. Together, the indirect CH4-O-3 and CH4-OHaerosol forcings could more than double the warming effect of large methane increases. Our findings may help explain the anomalously...
The Plinius/Colima CA-U3 test on fission-product aerosol release over a VVER-type corium pool
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Journeau, Ch.; Piluso, P.; Correggio, P.; Godin-Jacqmin, L.
2007-01-01
In a hypothetical case of severe accident in a PWR type VVER-440, a complex corium pool could be formed and fission products could be released. In order to study aerosols release in terms of mechanisms, kinetics, nature or quantity, and to better precise the source term of VVER-440, a series of experiments have been performed in the Colima facility and the test Colima CA-U3 has been successfully performed thanks to technological modifications to melt a prototypical corium at 2760 C degrees. Specific instrumentation has allowed us to follow the evolution of the corium melt and the release, transport and deposition of the fission products. The main conclusions are: -) there is a large release of Cr, Te, Sr, Pr and Rh (>95%w), -) there is a significant release of Fe (50%w), -) there is a small release of Ba, Ce, La, Nb, Nd and Y (<90%w), -) there is a very small release of U in proportion (<5%w) but it is one of the major released species in mass, and -) there is no release of Zr. The Colima experimental results are consistent with previous experiments on irradiated fuels except for Ba, Fe and U releases. (A.C.)
Li, Qingrui; Zhan, Shuyao; Liu, Qing; Su, Hao; Dai, Xi; Wang, Hai; Beng, Huimin; Tan, Wen
2018-01-01
An aerosolized liposome formulation for the pulmonary delivery of an anti-asthmatic medication was developed. Asthma treatment usually requires frequent administration of medication for a sustained bronchodilator response. Liposomes are known for their sustained drug release capability and thus would be a suitable delivery system for prolonging the therapeutic effect of anti-asthmatic medication. Liposomes prepared by thin film hydration were loaded with a model drug, R-terbutaline hydrochloride(R-TBH), using an ammonium sulfate-induced transmembrane electrochemical gradient. This technique provided an encapsulation efficiency of up to 71.35% and yielded R-TBH liposomes with a particle size of approximately 145 ± 20 nm. According to stability studies, these R-TBH liposomes should be stored at 4°C before usage. Compared to R-TBH solution, which showed 90.84% release within 8 h, liposomal R-TBH had a cumulative release of 73.53% at 37°C over 192 h. A next generation impactor (NGI) was used to analyze the particle size distribution in the lungs of R-TBH liposome aerosol in vitro at 5°C. The therapeutic efficacy of the nebulized aerosol of the R-TBH liposomes was assessed via pulmonary delivery in guinea pigs. The results showed that, compared to the R-TBH solution group, the R-TBH liposome group had a prolonged anti-asthma effect.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anon.
1998-01-01
During the thirteen congress on aerosols several papers were presented about the behaviour of radioactive aerosols and their impact on environment, or the exposure to radon and to its daughters, the measurement of the size of the particulates of the short-lived radon daughters and two papers about the behaviour of aerosols in containment during a fission products release in the primary circuit and susceptible to be released in atmosphere in the case of containment failure. (N.C.)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rauret, G.; Real, J.
1995-01-01
The behaviour of 134 Cs, 110m Ag and 85 Sr was studied in different soil-plant systems, using two types of Mediterranean soil with contrasting properties (sandy and sandy-loam soils). The plant species used was lettuce (Lactuca sativa). Contamination was induced at different stages of plant growth, using a synthetic aerosol which simulated a distant contamination source. Characterisation of aerosol and soils, interception factors in the various growth stages, foliar and root uptake, leaching from leaves by irrigation and distribution and migration of radionuclides of soils were studied, in an attempt to understand the key factors involving radionuclide soil-to-plant transferance. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rauret, G. [Universitat de Barcelona (Spain). Dept. of Quimica Analitica; Vallejo, V.R. [Universitat de barcelona (Spain). Dept. of Biologia Vegetal; Cancio, D. [Centro de Investigaciones Energeticas, Medioambientales y Tecnologicas (CIEMAT), Madrid (Spain); Real, J. [CEA Centre d`Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France). Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire
1995-12-31
The behaviour of {sup 134}Cs, {sup 110m}Ag and {sup 85}Sr was studied in different soil-plant systems, using two types of Mediterranean soil with contrasting properties (sandy and sandy-loam soils). The plant species used was lettuce (Lactuca sativa). Contamination was induced at different stages of plant growth, using a synthetic aerosol which simulated a distant contamination source. Characterisation of aerosol and soils, interception factors in the various growth stages, foliar and root uptake, leaching from leaves by irrigation and distribution and migration of radionuclides of soils were studied, in an attempt to understand the key factors involving radionuclide soil-to-plant transferance. (author).
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mainka, E.
1978-11-01
Analytical methods are described for (a) sodium; (b) the following anions of sodium aerosols: OH - , CO 2 - and HCO 3 - ; (c) fission products Cs and Sr. For sodium, the ion selective electrode was used. The anions were determined by a titration method using phenolphthalein and methyl orange as indicators. Atomic absorption spectroscopy was used for Cs and Sr. (U.K.)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bourham, Mohamed A.; Gilligan, John G.
1999-01-01
Safety considerations in large future fusion reactors like ITER are important before licensing the reactor. Several scenarios are considered hazardous, which include safety of plasma-facing components during hard disruptions, high heat fluxes and thermal stresses during normal operation, accidental energy release, and aerosol formation and transport. Disruption events, in large tokamaks like ITER, are expected to produce local heat fluxes on plasma-facing components, which may exceed 100 GW/m 2 over a period of about 0.1 ms. As a result, the surface temperature dramatically increases, which results in surface melting and vaporization, and produces thermal stresses and surface erosion. Plasma-facing components safety issues extends to cover a wide range of possible scenarios, including disruption severity and the impact of plasma-facing components on disruption parameters, accidental energy release and short/long term LOCA's, and formation of airborne particles by convective current transport during a LOVA (water/air ingress disruption) accident scenario. Study, and evaluation of, disruption-induced aerosol generation and mobilization is essential to characterize database on particulate formation and distribution for large future fusion tokamak reactor like ITER. In order to provide database relevant to ITER, the SIRENS electrothermal plasma facility at NCSU has been modified to closely simulate heat fluxes expected in ITER
Lesaffre, Emmanuel
2012-01-01
The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd
ZHOU, Lin
1996-01-01
In this paper I consider social choices under uncertainty. I prove that any social choice rule that satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives, translation invariance, and weak anonymity is consistent with ex post Bayesian utilitarianism
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Camus, H.; Delmas, J.; Grauby, A.; Disdier, R.
1977-01-01
Industrial development of sodium cooled breeder reactors have lead to the study of consequences of accidents occuring in the cooling circuit. The effects on crops when aerosols are released in the atmosphere can be determined after a certain amount of molten sodium (stable element 23 Na) is brought into contact with the open air. Experiments are performed in a 'Phytotron' equipment on lettuces and tomatoes in dry atmosphere at two different moments during the growing process. The aerosol studied has a high content of sodium peroxide and the ground deposit varied between 17 and 450 mg/m 2 sodium equivalent. (Concentration at distances of 800 m and 1500 m calculated for a theoretical fire involving 10 tons of sodium). Necrosis, visible only with a microscope, were reported when deposits in sodium equivalent were under 300 mg/m 2 . Leaves were destroyed if necrosis were numerous (deposit above 300 mg/m 2 ). Tomatoes, and fruits in particular, were found to be more resistant than lettuces. Sodium embedded in dead cells does not migrate in the plant and does not disturb the plants physiological equilibrium. New sprouts have normal sodium percentage. The consequences are essentially burns of which the extent is more or less high depending on the deposits and the kind of species involved [fr
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jordan, S; Schikarski, W; Schoeck, W [Gesellschaft fuer Kernforschung mbH, Karlsruhe (Germany)
1977-01-01
The behaviour of aerosols in LMFBR plant systems is of great importance for a number of problems, both normal operational and accident kind. This paper covers the following: aerosol modelling for LMFBR containment systems; aerosol size spectrometry by laser light scattering; experimental facilities and experimental results concerned with aerosol release under accident conditions; filtration of sodium oxide aerosols by multilayer sand bed filters.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jordan, S.; Schikarski, W.; Schoeck, W.
1977-01-01
The behaviour of aerosols in LMFBR plant systems is of great importance for a number of problems, both normal operational and accident kind. This paper covers the following: aerosol modelling for LMFBR containment systems; aerosol size spectrometry by laser light scattering; experimental facilities and experimental results concerned with aerosol release under accident conditions; filtration of sodium oxide aerosols by multilayer sand bed filters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bowsher, B.R.; Nichols, A.L.
1989-12-01
A comprehensive review has been undertaken of appropriate analytical techniques to monitor and measure the chemical effects that occur in large-scale tests designed to study severe reactor accidents. Various methods have been developed to determine the chemical forms of the vapours, aerosols and deposits generated during and after such integral experiments. Other specific techniques have the long-term potential to provide some of the desired data in greater detail, although considerable efforts are still required to apply these techniques to the study of radioactive debris. Such in-situ and post-test methods of analysis have been also assessed in terms of their applicability to the analysis of samples from the Phebus-FP tests. The recommended in-situ methods of analysis are gamma-ray spectroscopy, potentiometry, mass spectrometry, and Raman/UV-visible absorption spectroscopy. Vapour/aerosol and deposition samples should also be obtained at well-defined time intervals during each experiment for subsequent post-test analysis. No single technique can provide all the necessary chemical data from these samples, and the most appropriate method of analysis involves a complementary combination of autoradiography, AES, IR, MRS, SEMS/EDS, SIMS/LMIS, XPS and XRD
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ouf, F.-X., E-mail: francois-xavier.ouf@irsn.fr [Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), PSN-RES/SCA/LPMA, PSN-RES/SCA/LECEV, Gif-Sur-Yvette 91192 (France); Mocho, V.-M.; Pontreau, S.; Wang, Z. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), PSN-RES/SCA/LPMA, PSN-RES/SCA/LECEV, Gif-Sur-Yvette 91192 (France); Ferry, D. [Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS UMR 7325, CINaM, 13009 Marseille (France); Yon, J. [CORIA-UMR 6614-Normandie Université, CNRS-Université et Insa de Rouen, Campus Universitaire du Madrillet, 76800 Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray (France)
2015-02-11
Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • We characterize the aerosol emitted during thermal degradation of common materials. • Oxygen concentration on aerosol properties has been investigated. • Influence of oxygen concentration is limited to the organic carbon fraction. • The organic carbon fraction is correlated to the C:H ratio. • For pure materials, monomer diameter is correlated to the emission factor. - Abstract: For industrial concerns, and more especially for nuclear applications, the characterization of soot is essential for predicting the behaviour of containment barriers in fire conditions. This study deals with the characterization (emission factor, composition, size, morphology, microstructure) of particles produced during thermal degradation of materials found in nuclear facilities (electrical cables, polymers, oil and solvents). Small-scale experiments have been conducted for oxygen concentrations [O{sub 2}] ranging from 15% to 21% in order to imitate the oxygen depletion encountered during a confined fire. Particles denote distinct shapes, from aggregates composed of monomers with diameters ranging from 31.2 nm to 52.8 nm, to compact nanoparticles with diameters ranging from 15 nm to 400 nm, and their composition strongly depends on fuel type. Despite the organic to total carbon ratio (OC/TC), their properties are poorly influenced by the decrease in [O{sub 2}]. Finally, two empirical correlations are proposed for predicting the OC/TC ratio and the monomer diameter, respectively, as a function of the fuel's carbon to hydrogen ratio and the emission factor.
Analyses with ASTEC related to release of FPs and aerosol transport in case of SBLOCA For WWER 1000
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Atanasova, B.; Stefanova, A.; Groudev, P.
2008-01-01
The objective of this paper is to present the results obtained from performing the calculations with ASTEC computer code for the Source Term evaluation for specific severe accident transient. The calculations have been performed with the new version of ASTEC. The ASTEC 1.3 R2 code version is released by the French IRSN (Institut de Radioprotection at de surete nucleaire) by the end of 2007. The sequences include the release of fission products into the reactor containment and environment and transport of fission products. The analyses proposed here are performed to simulate radioactive products release through the cold leg of SG under accidental conditions. This investigation has been performed in the framework of the SARNET project (under the EURATOM 6th framework program) by the FoBAUs group (Forum of Bulgarian ASTEC users). (authors)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Agethen, K.; Koch, M.K.
2016-04-01
The present report is the 3 rd Technical Report within the research project ''ASMO'' founded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi 1501433) and projected at the Chair of Energy Systems and Energy Economics (LEE) within the workgroup Reactor Simulation and Safety at the Ruhr-Universitaet Bochum (RUB). The focus in this report is set on the release of fission products and the contribution to the source term, which is formed in the late phase after failure of the reactor pressure vessel during MCCI. By comparing the RUB simulation results including the fission product release rates with further simulations of GRS and VEIKI it can be indicated that the simulations have a high sensitivity in respect to the melting point temperature. It can be noted that the release rates are underestimated for most fission product species with the current model. Especially semi-volatile fission products and the lanthanum release is underestimated by several orders of magnitude. Based on the ACE experiment L2, advanced considerations are presented concerning the melt temperature, the gas temperature, the segregation and a varied melt configuration. Furthermore, the influence of the gas velocity is investigated. This variation of the gas velocity causes an underestimation of the release rates compared to the RUB base calculation. A model extension to oxidic species for lanthanum and ruthenium shows a significant improvement of the simulation results. In addition, the MEDICIS module has been enhanced to document the currently existing species, are displayed in a *.ist-file. This expansion shows inconsistencies between the melt composition and the fission product composition. Based on these results, there are still some difficulties regarding the release of fission products in the MEDICIS module and the interaction with the material data base (MOB) which needs further investigation.
Manixay, S.; Delaby, S.; Gaie-Levrel, F.; Wiart, M.; Motzkus, C.; Bencsik, A.
2017-06-01
Engineered Nanomaterials (ENM) provide technical and specific benefits due to their physical-chemical properties at the nanometer scale. For instance, many ENM are used to improve products in the building industry. Nanoscaled titanium dioxide (TiO2) is one of the most used ENM in this industry. Incorporated in different matrix, cement, glass, paints… TiO2 nanoparticles (NPs) provide the final product with anti-UV, air purification and self-cleaning properties, thanks to their photocatalytic activity. However, ageing processes of such products, as photocatalytic paints, during a mechanical stress have been shown to release TiO2 NPs from this matrix associated with sanding dust. Thus, workers who sand painted walls could be exposed to TiO2 NPs through inhalation. As inhalation may lead to a translocation of particulate matter to the brain via olfactory or trigeminal nerves, there is an urgent need for evaluating a potential neurotoxicity. In order to provide new knowledge on this topic, we developed a dedicated experimental set-up using a rodent model exposed via inhalation. The aerosol released from a mechanical stress of photocatalytic paints containing TiO2 NPs was characterized and coupled to an exposition chamber containing group of mice free to move and chronically exposed (2 hours per day for 5 days a week during 8 weeks).
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Manixay, S; Bencsik, A; Delaby, S; Gaie-Levrel, F; Wiart, M; Motzkus, C
2017-01-01
Engineered Nanomaterials (ENM) provide technical and specific benefits due to their physical-chemical properties at the nanometer scale. For instance, many ENM are used to improve products in the building industry. Nanoscaled titanium dioxide (TiO 2 ) is one of the most used ENM in this industry. Incorporated in different matrix, cement, glass, paints… TiO 2 nanoparticles (NPs) provide the final product with anti-UV, air purification and self-cleaning properties, thanks to their photocatalytic activity. However, ageing processes of such products, as photocatalytic paints, during a mechanical stress have been shown to release TiO 2 NPs from this matrix associated with sanding dust. Thus, workers who sand painted walls could be exposed to TiO 2 NPs through inhalation. As inhalation may lead to a translocation of particulate matter to the brain via olfactory or trigeminal nerves, there is an urgent need for evaluating a potential neurotoxicity. In order to provide new knowledge on this topic, we developed a dedicated experimental set-up using a rodent model exposed via inhalation. The aerosol released from a mechanical stress of photocatalytic paints containing TiO 2 NPs was characterized and coupled to an exposition chamber containing group of mice free to move and chronically exposed (2 hours per day for 5 days a week during 8 weeks). (paper)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lanza, S.; Mariotti, P.
1986-01-01
The US program LACE (LWR Aerosol Containment Experiments), in which Italy participates together with several European countries, Canada and Japan, aims at evaluating by means of a large scale experimental activity at HEDL the retention in the pipings and primary container of the radioactive aerosol released following severe accidents in light water reactors. At the same time these experiences will make available data through which the codes used to analyse the behaviour of the aerosol in the containment and to verify whether by means of the codes of thermohydraulic computation it is possible to evaluate with sufficient accuracy variable influencing the aerosol behaviour, can be validated. This report shows and compares the results obtained by the participants in the LACE program with the aerosol containment codes NAVA 5 and CONTAIN for the pre-test computations of the test LA 1, in which an accident called containment by pass is simulated
Bessiere, Pierre; Ahuactzin, Juan Manuel; Mekhnacha, Kamel
2013-01-01
Probability as an Alternative to Boolean LogicWhile logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain DataEmphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Journeau, Ch.; Piluso, P.; Correggio, P.; Godin-Jacqmin, L
2007-07-01
In a hypothetical case of severe accident in a PWR type VVER-440, a complex corium pool could be formed and fission products could be released. In order to study aerosols release in terms of mechanisms, kinetics, nature or quantity, and to better precise the source term of VVER-440, a series of experiments have been performed in the Colima facility and the test Colima CA-U3 has been successfully performed thanks to technological modifications to melt a prototypical corium at 2760 C degrees. Specific instrumentation has allowed us to follow the evolution of the corium melt and the release, transport and deposition of the fission products. The main conclusions are: -) there is a large release of Cr, Te, Sr, Pr and Rh (>95%w), -) there is a significant release of Fe (50%w), -) there is a small release of Ba, Ce, La, Nb, Nd and Y (<90%w), -) there is a very small release of U in proportion (<5%w) but it is one of the major released species in mass, and -) there is no release of Zr. The Colima experimental results are consistent with previous experiments on irradiated fuels except for Ba, Fe and U releases. (A.C.)
CATS Aerosol Typing and Future Directions
McGill, Matt; Yorks, John; Scott, Stan; Palm, Stephen; Hlavka, Dennis; Hart, William; Nowottnick, Ed; Selmer, Patrick; Kupchock, Andrew; Midzak, Natalie;
2016-01-01
The Cloud Aerosol Transport System (CATS), launched in January of 2015, is a lidar remote sensing instrument that will provide range-resolved profile measurements of atmospheric aerosols and clouds from the International Space Station (ISS). CATS is intended to operate on-orbit for at least six months, and up to three years. Status of CATS Level 2 and Plans for the Future:Version. 1. Aerosol Typing (ongoing): Mode 1: L1B data released later this summer; L2 data released shortly after; Identify algorithm biases (ex. striping, FOV (field of view) biases). Mode 2: Processed Released Currently working on correcting algorithm issues. Version 2 Aerosol Typing (Fall, 2016): Implementation of version 1 modifications Integrate GEOS-5 aerosols for typing guidance for non spherical aerosols. Version 3 Aerosol Typing (2017): Implementation of 1-D Var Assimilation into GEOS-5 Dynamic lidar ratio that will evolve in conjunction with simulated aerosol mixtures.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre
2016-01-01
Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes...
Introduction to Bayesian statistics
Bolstad, William M
2017-01-01
There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...
Aerosol science: theory and practice
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Williams, M.M.R.; Loyalka, S.K.
1991-01-01
The purpose of this book is twofold. First, it is intended to give a thorough treatment of the fundamentals of aerosol behavior with rigorous proofs and detailed derivations of the basic equations and removal mechanisms. Second, it is intended to provide practical examples with special attention to radioactive particles and their distribution in size following a radioactive release arising from an accident with a nuclear system. We start with a brief introduction to the applications of aerosol science and the characteristics of aerosols in Chapter 1. In Chapter 2, we devote considerable attention to single and two particle motion with respect to both translation and rotation. Chapter 3 contains extensive discussion of the aerosol general dynamical equation and the dependences of aerosol distributions on size, shape, space, composition, radioactivity, and charge. Important particle rate processes of coagulation, condensation, and deposition/resuspension are discussed in the chapters 4, 6 and 7, respectively. In Chapter 5, we provide a thorough treatment of the analytical and numerical methods used in solving the various forms of the aerosol dynamical equation. We discuss the importance and applications of aerosol science to nuclear technology and, in particular, the nuclear source term in Chapter 8. Our focus in this chapter is on discussions of nuclear accidents that can potentially release large amount of radioactivity to environment. We also discuss the progress that has been made in understanding the natural and engineered aerosol processes that limit or affect such releases. (author)
Bayesian artificial intelligence
Korb, Kevin B
2010-01-01
Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente
Bayesian artificial intelligence
Korb, Kevin B
2003-01-01
As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Penner, J.E.
1994-01-01
Organic aerosols scatter solar radiation. They may also either enhance or decrease concentrations of cloud condensation nuclei. This paper summarizes observed concentrations of aerosols in remote continental and marine locations and provides estimates for the sources of organic aerosol matter. The anthropogenic sources of organic aerosols may be as large as the anthropogenic sources of sulfate aerosols, implying a similar magnitude of direct forcing of climate. The source estimates are highly uncertain and subject to revision in the future. A slow secondary source of organic aerosols of unknown origin may contribute to the observed oceanic concentrations. The role of organic aerosols acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) is described and it is concluded that they may either enhance or decrease the ability of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols to act as CCN
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chamberlain, A.C.
1991-01-01
Radon. Fission product aerosols. Radioiodine. Tritium. Plutonium. Mass transfer of radioactive vapours and aerosols. Studies with radioactive particles and human subjects. Index. This paper explores the environmental and health aspects of radioactive aerosols. Covers radioactive nuclides of potential concern to public health and applications to the study of boundary layer transport. Contains bibliographic references. Suitable for environmental chemistry collections in academic and research libraries
Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.
2009-01-01
This article proposes Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared to conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian mediation analysis, inference is straightforward and exact, which makes it appealing for studies with small samples. Third, the Bayesian approach is conceptua...
Marsman, M.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.
2017-01-01
We illustrate the Bayesian approach to data analysis using the newly developed statistical software program JASP. With JASP, researchers are able to take advantage of the benefits that the Bayesian framework has to offer in terms of parameter estimation and hypothesis testing. The Bayesian
Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics
Bolstad, William M
2011-01-01
A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic
Bayesian statistics an introduction
Lee, Peter M
2012-01-01
Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cristy, G.A.; Fish, M.E.
1978-01-01
As part of the continuing studies of the effects of very severe reactor accidents, an effort was made to develop, test, and improve simple, effective, and inexpensive methods by which the average citizen, using only materials readily available, could protect his residence, himself, and his family from injury by toxic aerosols. The methods for protection against radioactive aerosols should be equally effective against a clandestine biological attack by terrorists. The results of the tests to date are limited to showing that spores of the harmless bacterium, bacillus globegii (BG), can be used as a simulant for the radioactive aerosols. An aerosol generator of Lauterbach type was developed which will produce an essentially monodisperse aerosol at the rate of 10 9 spores/min. Analytical techniques have been established which give reproducible results. Preliminary field tests have been conducted to check out the components of the system. Preliminary tests of protective devices, such as ordinary vacuum sweepers, have given protection factors of over 1000
DSMC multicomponent aerosol dynamics: Sampling algorithms and aerosol processes
Palaniswaamy, Geethpriya
The post-accident nuclear reactor primary and containment environments can be characterized by high temperatures and pressures, and fission products and nuclear aerosols. These aerosols evolve via natural transport processes as well as under the influence of engineered safety features. These aerosols can be hazardous and may pose risk to the public if released into the environment. Computations of their evolution, movement and distribution involve the study of various processes such as coagulation, deposition, condensation, etc., and are influenced by factors such as particle shape, charge, radioactivity and spatial inhomogeneity. These many factors make the numerical study of nuclear aerosol evolution computationally very complicated. The focus of this research is on the use of the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) technique to elucidate the role of various phenomena that influence the nuclear aerosol evolution. In this research, several aerosol processes such as coagulation, deposition, condensation, and source reinforcement are explored for a multi-component, aerosol dynamics problem in a spatially homogeneous medium. Among the various sampling algorithms explored the Metropolis sampling algorithm was found to be effective and fast. Several test problems and test cases are simulated using the DSMC technique. The DSMC results obtained are verified against the analytical and sectional results for appropriate test problems. Results show that the assumption of a single mean density is not appropriate due to the complicated effect of component densities on the aerosol processes. The methods developed and the insights gained will also be helpful in future research on the challenges associated with the description of fission product and aerosol releases.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rosen, J.; Ivanov, V.A.
1993-01-01
Stratospheric aerosol measurements can provide both spatial and temporal data of sufficient resolution to be of use in climate models. Relatively recent results from a wide range of instrument techniques for measuring stratospheric aerosol parameters are described. Such techniques include impactor sampling, lidar system sensing, filter sampling, photoelectric particle counting, satellite extinction-sensing using the sun as a source, and optical depth probing, at sites mainly removed from tropospheric aerosol sources. Some of these techniques have also had correlative and intercomparison studies. The main methods for determining the vertical profiles of stratospheric aerosols are outlined: lidar extinction measurements from satellites; impactor measurements from balloons and aircraft; and photoelectric particle counter measurements from balloons, aircraft, and rockets. The conversion of the lidar backscatter to stratospheric aerosol mass loading is referred to. Absolute measurements of total solar extinction from satellite orbits can be used to extract the aerosol extinction, and several examples of vertical profiles of extinction obtained with the SAGE satellite are given. Stratospheric mass loading can be inferred from extinction using approximate linear relationships but under restrictive conditions. Impactor sampling is essentially the only method in which the physical nature of the stratospheric aerosol is observed visually. Vertical profiles of stratospheric aerosol number concentration using impactor data are presented. Typical profiles using a dual-size-range photoelectric dustsonde particle counter are given for volcanically disturbed and inactive periods. Some measurements of the global distribution of stratospheric aerosols are also presented. Volatility measurements are described, indicating that stratospheric aerosols are composed primarily of about 75% sulfuric acid and 25% water
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Monfort, M.
1989-06-01
This experimental study concerns the consequences on the environment of a PWR severe accident. A preliminary bibliographical survey has been undertaken in order to determine the elements to study, and the experimental protocols to use. 4 fission products (Cs, Sr, Ru, Ce) and 3 structure materials (Ag, Fe, In) have been chosen. Tests of cations (Cs + ) retention by soils have been done. They showed up the great variability of the results according to experimental procedures (contact time, agitation, solid phase concentration...). The adoption of a standard procedure which would enable the different results comparison is suggested. Then, the dissolution of powders from the 7 elements has been studied in different solutions. Two different phenomena occurs for some elements. We observed a partial dissolution of Ag, In and Ce, according to solution compositions, but fine particles or colloid presence may contribute to the solution total activity. The Cs dissolution is more important but never complete, because of an amalgam formation during calcination with structure materials. Ru doesn't dissolve, and fine particles presence is the reason of solution activity. Soils retention is minimal for the elements that are neutral, like Ru, and maximal for cations, especially Cs + . High contents of organic matter and clay in soils enhance retention. Thanks to the new theoretical source term values, plurielementary aerosols fabrication has debuted. The installation we used (Inducing oven with an aerosol maturation enclosure) allows the obtention of temperatures as high as 2800 - 3000 0 C and the volatilization of 13 elements between the 16 presents. Suggestions are done that may increase the Ru, Ce and Zr emissions [fr
Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.
2009-01-01
In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…
Kleibergen, F.R.; Kleijn, R.; Paap, R.
2000-01-01
We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative. Unlike
von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo
2014-06-01
Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.
Safety Precautions for Total Release Foggers
Total release foggers, also known as bug bombs, are pesticide products containing aerosol propellants that release their contents at once to fumigate an area. They can pose a hazard if used incorrectly. Find safety information and videos on this page.
Albert, Jim
2009-01-01
There has been a dramatic growth in the development and application of Bayesian inferential methods. Some of this growth is due to the availability of powerful simulation-based algorithms to summarize posterior distributions. There has been also a growing interest in the use of the system R for statistical analyses. R's open source nature, free availability, and large number of contributor packages have made R the software of choice for many statisticians in education and industry. Bayesian Computation with R introduces Bayesian modeling by the use of computation using the R language. The earl
Current status of sodium fire and aerosol research in Japan
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Himeno, Yoshiaki
1989-01-01
State-of-the-art of the research and development related to sodium fire and aerosol behaviour is presented. This paper covers the Japanese work on sodium leak, leak detector, sodium oxidation and combustion, sodium aerosol release, fire mitigation, reliabilities of the electrical instruments and the reactor components under the sodium aerosols suspended atmosphere, aerosol plugging in a leak path, and the computer codes are presented. (author)
Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.
Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M
2018-02-01
This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.
Buseck, P. R.; Schwartz, S. E.
2003-12-01
It is widely believed that "On a clear day you can see forever," as proclaimed in the 1965 Broadway musical of the same name. While an admittedly beautiful thought, we all know that this concept is only figurative. Aside from Earth's curvature and Rayleigh scattering by air molecules, aerosols - colloidal suspensions of solid or liquid particles in a gas - limit our vision. Even on the clearest day, there are billions of aerosol particles per cubic meter of air.Atmospheric aerosols are commonly referred to as smoke, dust, haze, and smog, terms that are loosely reflective of their origin and composition. Aerosol particles have arisen naturally for eons from sea spray, volcanic emissions, wind entrainment of mineral dust, wildfires, and gas-to-particle conversion of hydrocarbons from plants and dimethylsulfide from the oceans. However, over the industrial period, the natural background aerosol has been greatly augmented by anthropogenic contributions, i.e., those produced by human activities. One manifestation of this impact is reduced visibility (Figure 1). Thus, perhaps more than in other realms of geochemistry, when considering the composition of the troposphere one must consider the effects of these activities. The atmosphere has become a reservoir for vast quantities of anthropogenic emissions that exert important perturbations on it and on the planetary ecosystem in general. Consequently, much recent research focuses on the effects of human activities on the atmosphere and, through them, on the environment and Earth's climate. For these reasons consideration of the geochemistry of the atmosphere, and of atmospheric aerosols in particular, must include the effects of human activities. (201K)Figure 1. Impairment of visibility by aerosols. Photographs at Yosemite National Park, California, USA. (a) Low aerosol concentration (particulate matter of aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm, PM2.5=0.3 μg m-3; particulate matter of aerodynamic diameter less than 10
Behavior of aerosols in a steam-air environment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Adams, R.E.; Tobias, M.L.; Longest, A.W.
1985-01-01
The behavior of aerosols assumed to be characteristic of those generated during light water reactor (LWR) accident sequences and released into containment is being studied in the Nuclear Safety Pilot Plant (NSPP) which is located at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The program plan for the NSPP aerosol project provides for the study of the behavior, within containment, of simulated LWR accident aerosols emanating from fuel, reactor core structural materials, and from concrete-molten core materials interactions. The aerodynamic behavior of each of these aerosols was studied individually to establish its characteristics; current experiments involve mixtures of these aerosols to establish their interaction and collective behavior within containment. Tests have been conducted with U 3 O 8 aerosols, Fe 2 O 3 aerosols, and concrete aerosols in an environment of either dry air [relative humidity (RH) less than 20%] or steam-air [relative humidity (RH) approximately 100%] with aerosol mass concentration being the primary experimental variable
Bayesian methods for data analysis
Carlin, Bradley P.
2009-01-01
Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors
Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani
We propose a Bayesian inferential procedure for the noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and incorporating effects of missing variables. In particular, we devise a fast and reliable posterior simulator that yields the predictive distribution...
Statistics: a Bayesian perspective
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Berry, Donald A
1996-01-01
...: it is the only introductory textbook based on Bayesian ideas, it combines concepts and methods, it presents statistics as a means of integrating data into the significant process, it develops ideas...
Fox, Gerardus J.A.; van den Berg, Stéphanie Martine; Veldkamp, Bernard P.; Irwing, P.; Booth, T.; Hughes, D.
2015-01-01
In educational and psychological studies, psychometric methods are involved in the measurement of constructs, and in constructing and validating measurement instruments. Assessment results are typically used to measure student proficiency levels and test characteristics. Recently, Bayesian item
Bayesian Networks An Introduction
Koski, Timo
2009-01-01
Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include:.: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications.; A detailed description of learni
Maeda, Shin-ichi
2014-01-01
Dropout is one of the key techniques to prevent the learning from overfitting. It is explained that dropout works as a kind of modified L2 regularization. Here, we shed light on the dropout from Bayesian standpoint. Bayesian interpretation enables us to optimize the dropout rate, which is beneficial for learning of weight parameters and prediction after learning. The experiment result also encourages the optimization of the dropout.
Modelling aerosol behavior in reactor cooling systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
McDonald, B.H.
1990-01-01
This paper presents an overview of some of the areas of concern in using computer codes to model fission-product aerosol behavior in the reactor cooling system (RCS) of a water-cooled nuclear reactor during a loss-of-coolant accident. The basic physical processes that require modelling include: fission product release and aerosol formation in the reactor core, aerosol transport and deposition in the reactor core and throughout the rest of the RCS, and the interaction between aerosol transport processes and the thermalhydraulics. In addition to these basic physical processes, chemical reactions can have a large influence on the nature of the aerosol and its behavior in the RCS. The focus is on the physics and the implications of numerical methods used in the computer codes to model aerosol behavior in the RCS
Ghosh, Sujit K
2010-01-01
Bayesian methods are rapidly becoming popular tools for making statistical inference in various fields of science including biology, engineering, finance, and genetics. One of the key aspects of Bayesian inferential method is its logical foundation that provides a coherent framework to utilize not only empirical but also scientific information available to a researcher. Prior knowledge arising from scientific background, expert judgment, or previously collected data is used to build a prior distribution which is then combined with current data via the likelihood function to characterize the current state of knowledge using the so-called posterior distribution. Bayesian methods allow the use of models of complex physical phenomena that were previously too difficult to estimate (e.g., using asymptotic approximations). Bayesian methods offer a means of more fully understanding issues that are central to many practical problems by allowing researchers to build integrated models based on hierarchical conditional distributions that can be estimated even with limited amounts of data. Furthermore, advances in numerical integration methods, particularly those based on Monte Carlo methods, have made it possible to compute the optimal Bayes estimators. However, there is a reasonably wide gap between the background of the empirically trained scientists and the full weight of Bayesian statistical inference. Hence, one of the goals of this chapter is to bridge the gap by offering elementary to advanced concepts that emphasize linkages between standard approaches and full probability modeling via Bayesian methods.
Aerosol Climate Time Series Evaluation In ESA Aerosol_cci
Popp, T.; de Leeuw, G.; Pinnock, S.
2015-12-01
Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Aerosol_cci (2010 - 2017) conducts intensive work to improve algorithms for the retrieval of aerosol information from European sensors. By the end of 2015 full mission time series of 2 GCOS-required aerosol parameters are completely validated and released: Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from dual view ATSR-2 / AATSR radiometers (3 algorithms, 1995 - 2012), and stratospheric extinction profiles from star occultation GOMOS spectrometer (2002 - 2012). Additionally, a 35-year multi-sensor time series of the qualitative Absorbing Aerosol Index (AAI) together with sensitivity information and an AAI model simulator is available. Complementary aerosol properties requested by GCOS are in a "round robin" phase, where various algorithms are inter-compared: fine mode AOD, mineral dust AOD (from the thermal IASI spectrometer), absorption information and aerosol layer height. As a quasi-reference for validation in few selected regions with sparse ground-based observations the multi-pixel GRASP algorithm for the POLDER instrument is used. Validation of first dataset versions (vs. AERONET, MAN) and inter-comparison to other satellite datasets (MODIS, MISR, SeaWIFS) proved the high quality of the available datasets comparable to other satellite retrievals and revealed needs for algorithm improvement (for example for higher AOD values) which were taken into account for a reprocessing. The datasets contain pixel level uncertainty estimates which are also validated. The paper will summarize and discuss the results of major reprocessing and validation conducted in 2015. The focus will be on the ATSR, GOMOS and IASI datasets. Pixel level uncertainties validation will be summarized and discussed including unknown components and their potential usefulness and limitations. Opportunities for time series extension with successor instruments of the Sentinel family will be described and the complementarity of the different satellite aerosol products
Analysis of aerosol agglomeration and removal mechanisms relevant to a reactor containment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chiang, H.W.; Mulpuru, S.R.; Lindquist, E.D.
1995-01-01
During some Postulated accidents in a nuclear reactor, radioactive aerosols may be formed and could be released from a rupture of the primary heat transport system into the containment. The released aerosols can agglomerate and form larger aerosol particles. The airborne aerosols can be removed from containment atmosphere by deposition onto the walls and other surfaces in contact with the gas-aerosol mixture. The rate of removal of aerosols depends on the aerosol size, which, in turn, is related to the amount of agglomeration of the aerosol particles. The extent of the removal of the aerosol mass from the containment atmosphere is important in determining the potential radioactive releases to the outside atmosphere. In this paper, selected conditions have been assessed to illustrate the significance of agglomeration for situations potentially of interest in containment safety studies
Bayesian networks with examples in R
Scutari, Marco
2014-01-01
Introduction. The Discrete Case: Multinomial Bayesian Networks. The Continuous Case: Gaussian Bayesian Networks. More Complex Cases. Theory and Algorithms for Bayesian Networks. Real-World Applications of Bayesian Networks. Appendices. Bibliography.
Bayesian methods in reliability
Sander, P.; Badoux, R.
1991-11-01
The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.
Attachment behavior of fission products to solution aerosol
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Takamiya, Koichi; Tanaka, Toru; Nitta, Shinnosuke; Itosu, Satoshi; Sekimoto, Shun; Oki, Yuichi; Ohtsuki, Tsutomu [Research Reactor Institute, Kyoto University, Osaka (Japan)
2016-12-15
Various characteristics such as size distribution, chemical component and radioactivity have been analyzed for radioactive aerosols released from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Measured results for radioactive aerosols suggest that the potential transport medium for radioactive cesium was non-sea-salt sulfate. This result indicates that cesium isotopes would preferentially attach with sulfate compounds. In the present work the attachment behavior of fission products to aqueous solution aerosols of sodium salts has been studied using a generation system of solution aerosols and spontaneous fission source of {sup 248}Cm. Attachment ratios of fission products to the solution aerosols were compared among the aerosols generated by different solutions of sodium salt. A significant difference according as a solute of solution aerosols was found in the attachment behavior. The present results suggest the existence of chemical effects in the attachment behavior of fission products to solution aerosols.
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Rosman, Benjamin
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Keywords Policy Reuse · Reinforcement Learning · Online Learning · Online Bandits · Transfer Learning · Bayesian Optimisation · Bayesian Decision Theory. 1 Introduction As robots and software agents are becoming more ubiquitous in many applications.... The agent has access to a library of policies (pi1, pi2 and pi3), and has previously experienced a set of task instances (τ1, τ2, τ3, τ4), as well as samples of the utilities of the library policies on these instances (the black dots indicate the means...
The intercomparison of aerosol codes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dunbar, I.H.; Fermandjian, J.; Gauvain, J.
1988-01-01
The behavior of aerosols in a reactor containment vessel following a severe accident could be an important determinant of the accident source term to the environment. Various processes result in the deposition of the aerosol onto surfaces within the containment, from where they are much less likely to be released. Some of these processes are very sensitive to particle size, so it is important to model the aerosol growth processes: agglomeration and condensation. A number of computer codes have been written to model growth and deposition processes. They have been tested against each other in a series of code comparison exercises. These exercises have investigated sensitivities to physical and numerical assumptions and have also proved a useful means of quality control for the codes. Various exercises in which code predictions are compared with experimental results are now under way
Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference
Davidson-Pilon, Cameron
2016-01-01
Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hayakawa, Hironobu; Oonishi, Masaki; Matsuura, Hiroyuki
1990-01-01
We have constructed the system to monitor the artificial beta aerosol activity around the nuclear power plants continuously in real time. The smaller releases of artificial radionuclides from the nuclear power plants can be lost in the fluctuations of the natural background of the beta aerosol activity, when only the beta activity of the aerosol is measured. This method to discriminate the artificial and the natural beta activity of the aerosol is based on the fact that the ratio of the natural alpha and beta activities of the aerosol is almost constant. The detection limit of this system is below 3 Bq/m 3 . (author)
Bayesian logistic regression analysis
Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.
2012-01-01
In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an
Korattikara, A.; Rathod, V.; Murphy, K.; Welling, M.; Cortes, C.; Lawrence, N.D.; Lee, D.D.; Sugiyama, M.; Garnett, R.
2015-01-01
We consider the problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for deep neural networks, which is important in problem settings where we may have little data, and/ or where we need accurate posterior predictive densities p(y|x, D), e.g., for applications involving bandits or active learning. One simple
Bayesian Geostatistical Design
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Diggle, Peter; Lophaven, Søren Nymand
2006-01-01
locations to, or deletion of locations from, an existing design, and prospective design, which consists of choosing positions for a new set of sampling locations. We propose a Bayesian design criterion which focuses on the goal of efficient spatial prediction whilst allowing for the fact that model...
Bayesian statistical inference
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bruno De Finetti
2017-04-01
Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael
2003-01-01
A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which r...
Bayesian Independent Component Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Winther, Ole; Petersen, Kaare Brandt
2007-01-01
In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...
Bayesian Exponential Smoothing.
Forbes, C.S.; Snyder, R.D.; Shami, R.S.
2000-01-01
In this paper, a Bayesian version of the exponential smoothing method of forecasting is proposed. The approach is based on a state space model containing only a single source of error for each time interval. This model allows us to improve current practices surrounding exponential smoothing by providing both point predictions and measures of the uncertainty surrounding them.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Klein, M.; Goossens, W.R.A.; De Smet, M.; Trine, J.; Hertschap, M.
1984-01-01
This report summarizes the work on the development of fibre metallic prefilters to be placed upstream of HEPA filters for the exhaust gases of nuclear process plants. Investigations at ambient and high temperature were carried out. Measurements of the filtration performance of Bekipor porous webs and sintered mats were performed in the AFLT (aerosol filtration at low temperature) unit with a throughput of 15 m 3 /h. A parametric study on the influence of particle size, fibre diameter, number of layers and superficial velocity led to the optimum choice of the working parameters. Three selected filter types were then tested with polydisperse aerosols using a candle-type filter configuration or a flat-type filter configuration. The small-diameter candle type is not well suited for a spraying nozzles regeneration system so that only the flat-type filter was retained for high-temperature tests. A high-temperature test unit (AFHT) with a throughput of 8 to 10 m 3 /h at 400 0 C was used to test the three filter types with an aerosol generated by high-temperature calcination of a simulated nitric acid waste solution traced with 134 Cs. The regeneration of the filter by spray washing and the effect of the regeneration on the filter performance was studied for the three filter types. The porous mats have a higher dust loading capacity than the sintered web which means that their regeneration frequency can be kept lower
Washington University St Louis — TOMS_AI_G is an aerosol related dataset derived from the Total Ozone Monitoring Satellite (TOMS) Sensor. The TOMS aerosol index arises from absorbing aerosols such...
Bayesian optimization for materials science
Packwood, Daniel
2017-01-01
This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science. Bayesian optimization is a promising global optimization technique that originates in the field of machine learning and is starting to gain attention in materials science. For the purpose of materials design, Bayesian optimization can be used to predict new materials with novel properties without extensive screening of candidate materials. For the purpose of computational materials science, Bayesian optimization can be incorporated into first-principles calculations to perform efficient, global structure optimizations. While re...
Electrically Driven Technologies for Radioactive Aerosol Abatement
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
David W. DePaoli; Ofodike A. Ezekoye; Costas Tsouris; Valmor F. de Almeida
2003-01-28
The purpose of this research project was to develop an improved understanding of how electriexecy driven processes, including electrocoalescence, acoustic agglomeration, and electric filtration, may be employed to efficiently treat problems caused by the formation of aerosols during DOE waste treatment operations. The production of aerosols during treatment and retrieval operations in radioactive waste tanks and during thermal treatment operations such as calcination presents a significant problem of cost, worker exposure, potential for release, and increased waste volume.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sheely, W.F.
1986-01-01
The Submerged Gravel Scrubber is an air cleaning system developed by the Department of Energy's Liquid Metal Reactor Program. The Scrubber System has been patented by the Department of Energy. This technology is being transferred to industry by the DOE. Its basic principles can be adapted for individual applications and the commercialized version can be used to perform a variety of tasks. The gas to be cleaned is percolated through a continuously washed gravel bed. The passage of the gas through the gravel breaks the stream into many small bubbles rising in a turbulent body of water. These conditions allow very highly efficient removal of aerosols from the gas
Calibration of aerosol radiometers. Special aerosol sources
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Belkina, S.K.; Zalmanzon, Yu.E.; Kuznetsov, Yu.V.; Fertman, D.E.
1988-01-01
Problems of calibration of artificial aerosol radiometry and information-measurement systems of radiometer radiation control, in particular, are considered. Special aerosol source is suggested, which permits to perform certification and testing of aerosol channels of the systems in situ without the dismantling
Probability and Bayesian statistics
1987-01-01
This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel N
2012-01-01
Many networks of scientific interest naturally decompose into clusters or communities with comparatively fewer external than internal links; however, current Bayesian models of network communities do not exert this intuitive notion of communities. We formulate a nonparametric Bayesian model...... for community detection consistent with an intuitive definition of communities and present a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for inferring the community structure. A Matlab toolbox with the proposed inference procedure is available for download. On synthetic and real networks, our model detects communities...... consistent with ground truth, and on real networks, it outperforms existing approaches in predicting missing links. This suggests that community structure is an important structural property of networks that should be explicitly modeled....
Approximate Bayesian recursive estimation
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kárný, Miroslav
2014-01-01
Roč. 285, č. 1 (2014), s. 100-111 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Approximate parameter estimation * Bayesian recursive estimation * Kullback–Leibler divergence * Forgetting Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.038, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/AS/karny-0425539.pdf
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.
2015-01-01
A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimenta...... economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule....
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Andrews, Stephen A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sigeti, David E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2017-11-15
These are a set of slides about Bayesian hypothesis testing, where many hypotheses are tested. The conclusions are the following: The value of the Bayes factor obtained when using the median of the posterior marginal is almost the minimum value of the Bayes factor. The value of τ^{2} which minimizes the Bayes factor is a reasonable choice for this parameter. This allows a likelihood ratio to be computed with is the least favorable to H_{0}.
Introduction to Bayesian statistics
Koch, Karl-Rudolf
2007-01-01
This book presents Bayes' theorem, the estimation of unknown parameters, the determination of confidence regions and the derivation of tests of hypotheses for the unknown parameters. It does so in a simple manner that is easy to comprehend. The book compares traditional and Bayesian methods with the rules of probability presented in a logical way allowing an intuitive understanding of random variables and their probability distributions to be formed.
Aerosol behavior in the reactor containment building during severe accident
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Berthion, Y.; Lhiaubet, G.; Gauvain, J.
1984-07-01
Thermohydraulic behavior inside a PWR containment during severe accident depends on decay heat transferred to the sump water by aerosol gravitational settling and deposition. Conversely, aerosol behavior depends on thermal hydraulic conditions, especially atmosphere moisture for soluble aerosol GsI, and CsOH. Therefore, a small iterative procedure between thermo-hydraulic and aerosol calculations has been performed in order to evaluate the importance of this coupling between the two phenomena. In this paper, it is shown that with this procedure and using our codes JERICHO, RICOCHET and AEROSOLS/B1, the steam condensation on aerosols is an important phenomenon for a correct estimation of the attenuation factor of the suspended mass of aerosols in the airborne of the containment. Then, we have a more realistic assessment of the source term released by the containment
Bayesian ARTMAP for regression.
Sasu, L M; Andonie, R
2013-10-01
Bayesian ARTMAP (BA) is a recently introduced neural architecture which uses a combination of Fuzzy ARTMAP competitive learning and Bayesian learning. Training is generally performed online, in a single-epoch. During training, BA creates input data clusters as Gaussian categories, and also infers the conditional probabilities between input patterns and categories, and between categories and classes. During prediction, BA uses Bayesian posterior probability estimation. So far, BA was used only for classification. The goal of this paper is to analyze the efficiency of BA for regression problems. Our contributions are: (i) we generalize the BA algorithm using the clustering functionality of both ART modules, and name it BA for Regression (BAR); (ii) we prove that BAR is a universal approximator with the best approximation property. In other words, BAR approximates arbitrarily well any continuous function (universal approximation) and, for every given continuous function, there is one in the set of BAR approximators situated at minimum distance (best approximation); (iii) we experimentally compare the online trained BAR with several neural models, on the following standard regression benchmarks: CPU Computer Hardware, Boston Housing, Wisconsin Breast Cancer, and Communities and Crime. Our results show that BAR is an appropriate tool for regression tasks, both for theoretical and practical reasons. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Bayesian theory and applications
Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A
2013-01-01
The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Moore, Murray E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Tao, Yong [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2017-02-16
Cerium oxide (CeO2) dust is recommended as a surrogate for plutonium oxide (PuO2) in airborne release fraction experiments. The total range of applicable particle sizes for PuO2 extends from 0.0032 μm (the diameter of a single PuO2 molecule) to 10 μm (the defined upper boundary for respirable particles). For particulates with a physical particle diameter of 1.0 μm, the corresponding aerodynamic diameters for CeO2 and PuO2 are 2.7 μm and 3.4 μm, respectively. Cascade impactor air samplers are capable of measuring the size distributions of CeO2 or PuO2 particulates. In this document, the aerodynamic diameters for CeO2 and PuO2 were calculated for seven different physical diameters (0.0032, 0.02, 0.11, 0.27, 1.0, 3.2, and 10 μm). For cascade impactor measurements, CeO2 and PuO2 particulates with the same physical diameter would be collected onto the same or adjacent collection substrates. The difference between the aerodynamic diameter of CeO2 and PuO2 particles (that have the same physical diameter) is 39% of the resolution of a twelve-stage MSP Inc. 125 cascade impactor, and 34% for an eight-stage Andersen impactor. An approach is given to calculate the committed effective dose (CED) coefficient for PuO2 aerosol particles, compared to a corresponding aerodynamic diameter of CeO2 particles. With this approach, use of CeO2 as a surrogate for PuO2 material would follow a direct conversion based on a molar equivalent. In addition to the analytical information developed for this document, several US national labs have published articles about the use of CeO2 as a PuO2 surrogate. Different physical and chemical aspects were considered by these investigators, including thermal properties, ceramic formulations, cold pressing, sintering, molecular reactions, and mass loss in high temperature gas flows. All of those US national lab studies recommended the use of CeO2 as a surrogate material for PuO2.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1987-01-01
The lectures of the colloquium are discussed in summary form. There were 5 lectures on aerosol deposition, 5 on aerosol elimination, 7 on toxicology, and 7 on the uses of aerosols in medical therapy. In some cases aerosols with radioactive labels were used. Several lectures reviewed the kinetics and toxicology of airborne environmental pollutants. (MG) [de
Bayesian analysis in plant pathology.
Mila, A L; Carriquiry, A L
2004-09-01
ABSTRACT Bayesian methods are currently much discussed and applied in several disciplines from molecular biology to engineering. Bayesian inference is the process of fitting a probability model to a set of data and summarizing the results via probability distributions on the parameters of the model and unobserved quantities such as predictions for new observations. In this paper, after a short introduction of Bayesian inference, we present the basic features of Bayesian methodology using examples from sequencing genomic fragments and analyzing microarray gene-expressing levels, reconstructing disease maps, and designing experiments.
Containment aerosol behaviour simulation studies in the BARC nuclear aerosol test facility
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mayya, Y.S.; Sapra, B.K.; Khan, Arshad; Sunny, Faby; Nair, R.N.; Raghunath, Radha; Tripathi, R.M.; Markandeya, S.G.; Puranik, V.D.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Shreekumar, K.P.; Padmanabhan, P.V.A.; Murthy, P.S.S.; Venlataramani, N.
2005-02-01
A Nuclear Aerosol Test Facility (NATF) has been built and commissioned at Bhabha Atomic Research Centre to carry out simulation studies on the behaviour of aerosols released into the reactor containment under accident conditions. This report also discusses some new experimental techniques for estimation of density of metallic aggregates. The experimental studies have shown that the dynamic densities of aerosol aggregates are far lower than their material densities as expected by the well-known fractal theory of aggregates. In the context of codes, this has significant bearing in providing a mechanistic basis for the input density parameter used in estimating the aerosol evolution characteristics. The data generated under the quiescent and turbulent conditions and the information on aggregate densities are now being subjected to the validation of the aerosol behaviour codes. (author)
Development of an aerosol decontamination factor evaluation method using an aerosol spectrometer
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kanai, Taizo; Furuya, Masahiro; Arai, Takahiro; Nishi, Yoshihisa
2016-01-01
Highlights: • Aerosol DF of each diameter is evaluable by using optical scattering method. • Outlet aerosol concentration shows exponential decay by the submergence. • This decay constant depends on the aerosol diameter. • Aerosol DF at water scrubber is described by simple equation. - Abstract: During a severe nuclear power plant accident, the release of fission products into containment and an increase in containment pressure are assumed to be possible. When the containment is damaged by excess pressure or temperature, radioactive materials are released. Pressure suppression pools, containment spray systems and a filtered containment venting system (FCVS) reduce containment pressure and reduce the radioactive release into the environment. These devices remove radioactive materials via various mechanisms. Pressure suppression pools remove radioactive materials by pool scrubbing. Spray systems remove radioactive materials by droplet−aerosol interaction. FCVS, which is installed in the exhaust system, comprises multi-scrubbers (venturi-scrubber, pool scrubbing, static mixer, metal−fiber filter and molecular sieve). For the particulate radioactive materials, its size affects the removal performance and a number of studies have been performed on the removal effect of radioactive materials. This study has developed a new means of evaluating aerosol removal efficiency. The aerosol number density of each effective diameter (light scattering equivalent diameter) is measured using an optical method, while the decontamination factor (DF) of each effective diameter is evaluated by the inlet outlet number density ratio. While the applicable scope is limited to several conditions (geometry of test section: inner diameter 500 mm × height 8.0 m, nozzle shape and air-water ambient pressure conditions), this study has developed a numerical model which defines aerosol DF as a function of aerosol diameter (d) and submergences (x).
Development of an aerosol decontamination factor evaluation method using an aerosol spectrometer
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kanai, Taizo, E-mail: t-kanai@criepi.denken.or.jp; Furuya, Masahiro, E-mail: furuya@criepi.denken.or.jp; Arai, Takahiro, E-mail: t-arai@criepi.denken.or.jp; Nishi, Yoshihisa, E-mail: y-nishi@criepi.denken.or.jp
2016-07-15
Highlights: • Aerosol DF of each diameter is evaluable by using optical scattering method. • Outlet aerosol concentration shows exponential decay by the submergence. • This decay constant depends on the aerosol diameter. • Aerosol DF at water scrubber is described by simple equation. - Abstract: During a severe nuclear power plant accident, the release of fission products into containment and an increase in containment pressure are assumed to be possible. When the containment is damaged by excess pressure or temperature, radioactive materials are released. Pressure suppression pools, containment spray systems and a filtered containment venting system (FCVS) reduce containment pressure and reduce the radioactive release into the environment. These devices remove radioactive materials via various mechanisms. Pressure suppression pools remove radioactive materials by pool scrubbing. Spray systems remove radioactive materials by droplet−aerosol interaction. FCVS, which is installed in the exhaust system, comprises multi-scrubbers (venturi-scrubber, pool scrubbing, static mixer, metal−fiber filter and molecular sieve). For the particulate radioactive materials, its size affects the removal performance and a number of studies have been performed on the removal effect of radioactive materials. This study has developed a new means of evaluating aerosol removal efficiency. The aerosol number density of each effective diameter (light scattering equivalent diameter) is measured using an optical method, while the decontamination factor (DF) of each effective diameter is evaluated by the inlet outlet number density ratio. While the applicable scope is limited to several conditions (geometry of test section: inner diameter 500 mm × height 8.0 m, nozzle shape and air-water ambient pressure conditions), this study has developed a numerical model which defines aerosol DF as a function of aerosol diameter (d) and submergences (x).
Aerosol Climate Time Series in ESA Aerosol_cci
Popp, Thomas; de Leeuw, Gerrit; Pinnock, Simon
2016-04-01
Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Aerosol_cci (2010 - 2017) conducts intensive work to improve algorithms for the retrieval of aerosol information from European sensors. Meanwhile, full mission time series of 2 GCOS-required aerosol parameters are completely validated and released: Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from dual view ATSR-2 / AATSR radiometers (3 algorithms, 1995 - 2012), and stratospheric extinction profiles from star occultation GOMOS spectrometer (2002 - 2012). Additionally, a 35-year multi-sensor time series of the qualitative Absorbing Aerosol Index (AAI) together with sensitivity information and an AAI model simulator is available. Complementary aerosol properties requested by GCOS are in a "round robin" phase, where various algorithms are inter-compared: fine mode AOD, mineral dust AOD (from the thermal IASI spectrometer, but also from ATSR instruments and the POLDER sensor), absorption information and aerosol layer height. As a quasi-reference for validation in few selected regions with sparse ground-based observations the multi-pixel GRASP algorithm for the POLDER instrument is used. Validation of first dataset versions (vs. AERONET, MAN) and inter-comparison to other satellite datasets (MODIS, MISR, SeaWIFS) proved the high quality of the available datasets comparable to other satellite retrievals and revealed needs for algorithm improvement (for example for higher AOD values) which were taken into account for a reprocessing. The datasets contain pixel level uncertainty estimates which were also validated and improved in the reprocessing. For the three ATSR algorithms the use of an ensemble method was tested. The paper will summarize and discuss the status of dataset reprocessing and validation. The focus will be on the ATSR, GOMOS and IASI datasets. Pixel level uncertainties validation will be summarized and discussed including unknown components and their potential usefulness and limitations. Opportunities for time series extension
Model and Computing Experiment for Research and Aerosols Usage Management
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daler K. Sharipov
2012-09-01
Full Text Available The article deals with a math model for research and management of aerosols released into the atmosphere as well as numerical algorithm used as hardware and software systems for conducting computing experiment.
Bayesian nonparametric data analysis
Müller, Peter; Jara, Alejandro; Hanson, Tim
2015-01-01
This book reviews nonparametric Bayesian methods and models that have proven useful in the context of data analysis. Rather than providing an encyclopedic review of probability models, the book’s structure follows a data analysis perspective. As such, the chapters are organized by traditional data analysis problems. In selecting specific nonparametric models, simpler and more traditional models are favored over specialized ones. The discussed methods are illustrated with a wealth of examples, including applications ranging from stylized examples to case studies from recent literature. The book also includes an extensive discussion of computational methods and details on their implementation. R code for many examples is included in on-line software pages.
Congdon, Peter
2014-01-01
This book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and data analysis, with an emphasis on the interpretation of real data sets. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, this book aims to make a wide range of statistical modeling applications accessible using tested code that can be readily adapted to the reader's own applications. The second edition has been thoroughly reworked and updated to take account of advances in the field. A new set of worked examples is included. The novel aspect of the first edition was the coverage of statistical modeling using WinBU
Aerosol typing - key information from aerosol studies
Mona, Lucia; Kahn, Ralph; Papagiannopoulos, Nikolaos; Holzer-Popp, Thomas; Pappalardo, Gelsomina
2016-04-01
Aerosol typing is a key source of aerosol information from ground-based and satellite-borne instruments. Depending on the specific measurement technique, aerosol typing can be used as input for retrievals or represents an output for other applications. Typically aerosol retrievals require some a priori or external aerosol type information. The accuracy of the derived aerosol products strongly depends on the reliability of these assumptions. Different sensors can make use of different aerosol type inputs. A critical review and harmonization of these procedures could significantly reduce related uncertainties. On the other hand, satellite measurements in recent years are providing valuable information about the global distribution of aerosol types, showing for example the main source regions and typical transport paths. Climatological studies of aerosol load at global and regional scales often rely on inferred aerosol type. There is still a high degree of inhomogeneity among satellite aerosol typing schemes, which makes the use different sensor datasets in a consistent way difficult. Knowledge of the 4d aerosol type distribution at these scales is essential for understanding the impact of different aerosol sources on climate, precipitation and air quality. All this information is needed for planning upcoming aerosol emissions policies. The exchange of expertise and the communication among satellite and ground-based measurement communities is fundamental for improving long-term dataset consistency, and for reducing aerosol type distribution uncertainties. Aerosol typing has been recognized as one of its high-priority activities of the AEROSAT (International Satellite Aerosol Science Network, http://aero-sat.org/) initiative. In the AEROSAT framework, a first critical review of aerosol typing procedures has been carried out. The review underlines the high heterogeneity in many aspects: approach, nomenclature, assumed number of components and parameters used for the
Pollution metallique relargable par les aerosols d'origine autoroutiere
Lebreton , Laurent; Thevenot , Daniel ,
1992-01-01
International audience; Because they are highly contaminated by heavy metals, road aerosols may pollute runoff waters. To estimate the mobility of some toxic metals such as Zn, Pb or Cd, these aerosols have been submited to a range of sequential chemical extraction (chemical speciation) and to laboratory release experiments. Both chemical speciation and reactor experiments show similar metal behaviour. Zn and Cd are extremely mobile (60 % released) while Pb, highly bound to particles, needs a...
Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael
2009-01-01
Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....
Searching Algorithm Using Bayesian Updates
Caudle, Kyle
2010-01-01
In late October 1967, the USS Scorpion was lost at sea, somewhere between the Azores and Norfolk Virginia. Dr. Craven of the U.S. Navy's Special Projects Division is credited with using Bayesian Search Theory to locate the submarine. Bayesian Search Theory is a straightforward and interesting application of Bayes' theorem which involves searching…
Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 2)
CERN. Geneva
2018-01-01
framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.
Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 1)
CERN. Geneva
2018-01-01
framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.
The Bayesian Covariance Lasso.
Khondker, Zakaria S; Zhu, Hongtu; Chu, Haitao; Lin, Weili; Ibrahim, Joseph G
2013-04-01
Estimation of sparse covariance matrices and their inverse subject to positive definiteness constraints has drawn a lot of attention in recent years. The abundance of high-dimensional data, where the sample size ( n ) is less than the dimension ( d ), requires shrinkage estimation methods since the maximum likelihood estimator is not positive definite in this case. Furthermore, when n is larger than d but not sufficiently larger, shrinkage estimation is more stable than maximum likelihood as it reduces the condition number of the precision matrix. Frequentist methods have utilized penalized likelihood methods, whereas Bayesian approaches rely on matrix decompositions or Wishart priors for shrinkage. In this paper we propose a new method, called the Bayesian Covariance Lasso (BCLASSO), for the shrinkage estimation of a precision (covariance) matrix. We consider a class of priors for the precision matrix that leads to the popular frequentist penalties as special cases, develop a Bayes estimator for the precision matrix, and propose an efficient sampling scheme that does not precalculate boundaries for positive definiteness. The proposed method is permutation invariant and performs shrinkage and estimation simultaneously for non-full rank data. Simulations show that the proposed BCLASSO performs similarly as frequentist methods for non-full rank data.
Bayesian dynamic mediation analysis.
Huang, Jing; Yuan, Ying
2017-12-01
Most existing methods for mediation analysis assume that mediation is a stationary, time-invariant process, which overlooks the inherently dynamic nature of many human psychological processes and behavioral activities. In this article, we consider mediation as a dynamic process that continuously changes over time. We propose Bayesian multilevel time-varying coefficient models to describe and estimate such dynamic mediation effects. By taking the nonparametric penalized spline approach, the proposed method is flexible and able to accommodate any shape of the relationship between time and mediation effects. Simulation studies show that the proposed method works well and faithfully reflects the true nature of the mediation process. By modeling mediation effect nonparametrically as a continuous function of time, our method provides a valuable tool to help researchers obtain a more complete understanding of the dynamic nature of the mediation process underlying psychological and behavioral phenomena. We also briefly discuss an alternative approach of using dynamic autoregressive mediation model to estimate the dynamic mediation effect. The computer code is provided to implement the proposed Bayesian dynamic mediation analysis. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
Approximate Bayesian computation.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mikael Sunnåker
Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and approximations whose impact needs to be carefully assessed. Furthermore, the wider application domain of ABC exacerbates the challenges of parameter estimation and model selection. ABC has rapidly gained popularity over the last years and in particular for the analysis of complex problems arising in biological sciences (e.g., in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology, and systems biology.
The DRAGON aerosol research facility to study aerosol behaviour for reactor safety applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suckow, Detlef; Guentay, Salih
2008-01-01
During a severe accident in a nuclear power plant fission products are expected to be released in form of aerosol particles and droplets. To study the behaviour of safety relevant reactor components under aerosol loads and prototypical severe accident conditions the multi-purpose aerosol generation facility DRAGON is used since 1994 for several projects. DRAGON can generate aerosol particles by the evaporation-condensation technique using a plasma torch system, fluidized bed and atomization of particles suspended in a liquid. Soluble, hygroscopic aerosol (i.e. CsOH) and insoluble aerosol particles (i.e. SnO 2 , TiO 2 ) or mixtures of them can be used. DRAGON uses state-of-the-art thermal-hydraulic, data acquisition and aerosol measurement techniques and is mainly composed of a mixing chamber, the plasma torch system, a steam generator, nitrogen gas and compressed air delivery systems, several aerosol delivery piping, gas heaters and several auxiliary systems to provide vacuum, coolant and off-gas treatment. The facility can be operated at system pressure of 5 bars, temperatures of 300 deg. C, flow rates of non-condensable gas of 900 kg/h and steam of 270 kg/h, respectively. A test section under investigation is attached to DRAGON. The paper summarizes and demonstrates with the help of two project examples the capabilities of DRAGON for reactor safety studies. (authors)
Bayesian inference with ecological applications
Link, William A
2009-01-01
This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...
Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Asad Ali
2015-12-01
Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.
Aerosol-type retrieval and uncertainty quantification from OMI data
Kauppi, Anu; Kolmonen, Pekka; Laine, Marko; Tamminen, Johanna
2017-11-01
We discuss uncertainty quantification for aerosol-type selection in satellite-based atmospheric aerosol retrieval. The retrieval procedure uses precalculated aerosol microphysical models stored in look-up tables (LUTs) and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) spectral reflectance measurements to solve the aerosol characteristics. The forward model approximations cause systematic differences between the modelled and observed reflectance. Acknowledging this model discrepancy as a source of uncertainty allows us to produce more realistic uncertainty estimates and assists the selection of the most appropriate LUTs for each individual retrieval.This paper focuses on the aerosol microphysical model selection and characterisation of uncertainty in the retrieved aerosol type and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The concept of model evidence is used as a tool for model comparison. The method is based on Bayesian inference approach, in which all uncertainties are described as a posterior probability distribution. When there is no single best-matching aerosol microphysical model, we use a statistical technique based on Bayesian model averaging to combine AOD posterior probability densities of the best-fitting models to obtain an averaged AOD estimate. We also determine the shared evidence of the best-matching models of a certain main aerosol type in order to quantify how plausible it is that it represents the underlying atmospheric aerosol conditions.The developed method is applied to Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements using a multiwavelength approach for retrieving the aerosol type and AOD estimate with uncertainty quantification for cloud-free over-land pixels. Several larger pixel set areas were studied in order to investigate the robustness of the developed method. We evaluated the retrieved AOD by comparison with ground-based measurements at example sites. We found that the uncertainty of AOD expressed by posterior probability distribution reflects the difficulty in model
Aerosol-type retrieval and uncertainty quantification from OMI data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Kauppi
2017-11-01
Full Text Available We discuss uncertainty quantification for aerosol-type selection in satellite-based atmospheric aerosol retrieval. The retrieval procedure uses precalculated aerosol microphysical models stored in look-up tables (LUTs and top-of-atmosphere (TOA spectral reflectance measurements to solve the aerosol characteristics. The forward model approximations cause systematic differences between the modelled and observed reflectance. Acknowledging this model discrepancy as a source of uncertainty allows us to produce more realistic uncertainty estimates and assists the selection of the most appropriate LUTs for each individual retrieval.This paper focuses on the aerosol microphysical model selection and characterisation of uncertainty in the retrieved aerosol type and aerosol optical depth (AOD. The concept of model evidence is used as a tool for model comparison. The method is based on Bayesian inference approach, in which all uncertainties are described as a posterior probability distribution. When there is no single best-matching aerosol microphysical model, we use a statistical technique based on Bayesian model averaging to combine AOD posterior probability densities of the best-fitting models to obtain an averaged AOD estimate. We also determine the shared evidence of the best-matching models of a certain main aerosol type in order to quantify how plausible it is that it represents the underlying atmospheric aerosol conditions.The developed method is applied to Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI measurements using a multiwavelength approach for retrieving the aerosol type and AOD estimate with uncertainty quantification for cloud-free over-land pixels. Several larger pixel set areas were studied in order to investigate the robustness of the developed method. We evaluated the retrieved AOD by comparison with ground-based measurements at example sites. We found that the uncertainty of AOD expressed by posterior probability distribution reflects the
Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.
2013-01-01
Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science
Microphysical processing of aerosol particles in orographic clouds
Pousse-Nottelmann, S.; Zubler, E. M.; Lohmann, U.
2015-08-01
An explicit and detailed treatment of cloud-borne particles allowing for the consideration of aerosol cycling in clouds has been implemented into COSMO-Model, the regional weather forecast and climate model of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO). The effects of aerosol scavenging, cloud microphysical processing and regeneration upon cloud evaporation on the aerosol population and on subsequent cloud formation are investigated. For this, two-dimensional idealized simulations of moist flow over two bell-shaped mountains were carried out varying the treatment of aerosol scavenging and regeneration processes for a warm-phase and a mixed-phase orographic cloud. The results allowed us to identify different aerosol cycling mechanisms. In the simulated non-precipitating warm-phase cloud, aerosol mass is incorporated into cloud droplets by activation scavenging and released back to the atmosphere upon cloud droplet evaporation. In the mixed-phase cloud, a first cycle comprises cloud droplet activation and evaporation via the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) process. A second cycle includes below-cloud scavenging by precipitating snow particles and snow sublimation and is connected to the first cycle via the riming process which transfers aerosol mass from cloud droplets to snowflakes. In the simulated mixed-phase cloud, only a negligible part of the total aerosol mass is incorporated into ice crystals. Sedimenting snowflakes reaching the surface remove aerosol mass from the atmosphere. The results show that aerosol processing and regeneration lead to a vertical redistribution of aerosol mass and number. Thereby, the processes impact the total aerosol number and mass and additionally alter the shape of the aerosol size distributions by enhancing the internally mixed/soluble Aitken and accumulation mode and generating coarse-mode particles. Concerning subsequent cloud formation at the second mountain, accounting for aerosol processing and regeneration increases
Microphysical processing of aerosol particles in orographic clouds
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Pousse-Nottelmann
2015-08-01
aerosol cycling in clouds has been implemented into COSMO-Model, the regional weather forecast and climate model of the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO. The effects of aerosol scavenging, cloud microphysical processing and regeneration upon cloud evaporation on the aerosol population and on subsequent cloud formation are investigated. For this, two-dimensional idealized simulations of moist flow over two bell-shaped mountains were carried out varying the treatment of aerosol scavenging and regeneration processes for a warm-phase and a mixed-phase orographic cloud. The results allowed us to identify different aerosol cycling mechanisms. In the simulated non-precipitating warm-phase cloud, aerosol mass is incorporated into cloud droplets by activation scavenging and released back to the atmosphere upon cloud droplet evaporation. In the mixed-phase cloud, a first cycle comprises cloud droplet activation and evaporation via the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF process. A second cycle includes below-cloud scavenging by precipitating snow particles and snow sublimation and is connected to the first cycle via the riming process which transfers aerosol mass from cloud droplets to snowflakes. In the simulated mixed-phase cloud, only a negligible part of the total aerosol mass is incorporated into ice crystals. Sedimenting snowflakes reaching the surface remove aerosol mass from the atmosphere. The results show that aerosol processing and regeneration lead to a vertical redistribution of aerosol mass and number. Thereby, the processes impact the total aerosol number and mass and additionally alter the shape of the aerosol size distributions by enhancing the internally mixed/soluble Aitken and accumulation mode and generating coarse-mode particles. Concerning subsequent cloud formation at the second mountain, accounting for aerosol processing and regeneration increases the cloud droplet number concentration with possible implications for the ice crystal number
Protection of air in premises and environment against beryllium aerosols
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bitkolov, N.Z.; Vishnevsky, E.P.; Krupkin, A.V. [Research Inst. of Industrial and Marine Medicine, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)
1998-01-01
First and foremost, the danger of beryllium aerosols concerns a possibility of their inhalation. The situation is aggravated with high biological activity of the beryllium in a human lung. The small allowable beryllium aerosols` concentration in air poses a rather complex and expensive problem of the pollution prevention and clearing up of air. The delivery and transportation of beryllium aerosols from sites of their formation are defined by the circuit of ventilation, that forms aerodynamics of air flows in premises, and aerodynamic links between premises. The causes of aerosols release in air of premises from hoods, isolated and hermetically sealed vessels can be vibrations, as well as pulses of temperature and pressure. Furthermore, it is possible the redispersion of aerosols from dirty surfaces. The effective protection of air against beryllium aerosols at industrial plants is provided by a complex of hygienic measures: from individual means of breath protection up to collective means of the prevention of air pollution. (J.P.N.)
Measurements provide fundamental information for evaluating and managing the impact of aerosols on air quality. Specific measurements of aerosol concentration and their physical and chemical properties are required by different users to meet different user-community needs. Befo...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rajabalinejad, M.
2010-01-01
To reduce cost of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for time-consuming processes, Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) is introduced in this paper. The BMC method reduces number of realizations in MC according to the desired accuracy level. BMC also provides a possibility of considering more priors. In other words, different priors can be integrated into one model by using BMC to further reduce cost of simulations. This study suggests speeding up the simulation process by considering the logical dependence of neighboring points as prior information. This information is used in the BMC method to produce a predictive tool through the simulation process. The general methodology and algorithm of BMC method are presented in this paper. The BMC method is applied to the simplified break water model as well as the finite element model of 17th Street Canal in New Orleans, and the results are compared with the MC and Dynamic Bounds methods.
Bayesian nonparametric hierarchical modeling.
Dunson, David B
2009-04-01
In biomedical research, hierarchical models are very widely used to accommodate dependence in multivariate and longitudinal data and for borrowing of information across data from different sources. A primary concern in hierarchical modeling is sensitivity to parametric assumptions, such as linearity and normality of the random effects. Parametric assumptions on latent variable distributions can be challenging to check and are typically unwarranted, given available prior knowledge. This article reviews some recent developments in Bayesian nonparametric methods motivated by complex, multivariate and functional data collected in biomedical studies. The author provides a brief review of flexible parametric approaches relying on finite mixtures and latent class modeling. Dirichlet process mixture models are motivated by the need to generalize these approaches to avoid assuming a fixed finite number of classes. Focusing on an epidemiology application, the author illustrates the practical utility and potential of nonparametric Bayes methods.
Facility of aerosol filtration
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Duverger de Cuy, G; Regnier, J
1975-04-18
Said invention relates to a facility of aerosol filtration, particularly of sodium aerosols. Said facility is of special interest for fast reactors where sodium fires involve the possibility of high concentrations of sodium aerosols which soon clog up conventional filters. The facility intended for continuous operation, includes at the pre-filtering stage, means for increasing the size of the aerosol particles and separating clustered particles (cyclone separator).
Release fraction of PWR after severe accidents. Vol. 4
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aziz, M.; El-Messeiry, A.M.
1996-01-01
Fission fragments and gases are emitted after accidents as a result of core meltdown and core concrete interactions. These aerosols are transported and fill the reactor containment. With increasing the pressure above pressure design bases, a failure of containment may occur and subsequently these aerosols will release into the external environment leading to a source term of radioactivity that affects the safety of workers and public. The amount of aerosol which escapes to the environment can be described by the release fraction which is defined as the total accumulated aerosol which initially enters the containment. The factors that affect the release fraction is studied, and the aerosol dynamics equation is used to model the release of aerosol to the outside atmosphere. These factors are containment pressure, failure time,break area, the size of aerosol particle. It found that early failure time and higher pressure increase the release fraction, also the release faction is affected by the area and the aerosol particle size. 7 figs., 2 tabs
Release fraction of PWR after severe accidents. Vol. 4
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Aziz, M; El-Messeiry, A M [National Center for Nuclear Safety and Radiation Control, Atomic Energy Authority, Cairo (Egypt)
1996-03-01
Fission fragments and gases are emitted after accidents as a result of core meltdown and core concrete interactions. These aerosols are transported and fill the reactor containment. With increasing the pressure above pressure design bases, a failure of containment may occur and subsequently these aerosols will release into the external environment leading to a source term of radioactivity that affects the safety of workers and public. The amount of aerosol which escapes to the environment can be described by the release fraction which is defined as the total accumulated aerosol which initially enters the containment. The factors that affect the release fraction is studied, and the aerosol dynamics equation is used to model the release of aerosol to the outside atmosphere. These factors are containment pressure, failure time,break area, the size of aerosol particle. It found that early failure time and higher pressure increase the release fraction, also the release faction is affected by the area and the aerosol particle size. 7 figs., 2 tabs.
Book review: Bayesian analysis for population ecology
Link, William A.
2011-01-01
Brian Dennis described the field of ecology as “fertile, uncolonized ground for Bayesian ideas.” He continued: “The Bayesian propagule has arrived at the shore. Ecologists need to think long and hard about the consequences of a Bayesian ecology. The Bayesian outlook is a successful competitor, but is it a weed? I think so.” (Dennis 2004)
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Large warming by elevated aerosols · AERONET – Global network (NASA) · Slide 25 · Slide 26 · Slide 27 · Slide 28 · Slide 29 · Slide 30 · Slide 31 · Long-term trends - Trivandrum · Enhanced warming over Himalayan-Gangetic region · Aerosol Radiative Forcing Over India _ Regional Aerosol Warming Experiment ...
Investigation on aerosol transport in containment cracks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parozzi, F.; Chatzidakis, S.; Housiadas, C.; Gelain, T.; Nahas, G.; Plumecocq, W.; Vendel, J.; Herranz, L.E.; Hinis, E.; Journeau, C.; Piluso, P.; Malgarida, E.
2005-01-01
Under severe accident conditions, the containment leak-tightness could be threatened by energetic phenomena that could yield a release to the environment of nuclear aerosols through penetrating concrete cracks. As few data are presently available to quantify this aerosol leakage, a specific action was launched in the framework of the Santar Project of the European 6 th Framework Programme. In this context, both theoretical and experimental investigations have been managed to develop a model that can readily be applied within a code like Aster (Accident Source Term Evaluation Code). Particle diffusion, settling, turbulent deposition, diffusiophoresis and thermophoresis have been considered as deposition mechanisms inside the crack path. They have been encapsulated in numerical models set up to reproduce experiments with small tubes and capillaries and simulate the plug formation. Then, an original lagrangian approach has been used to evaluate the crack retention under typical PWR accident conditions, comparing its predictions with those given by the eulerian approach implemented in the ECART code. On the experimental side, the paper illustrates an aerosol production and measurement system developed to validate aerosol deposition models into cracks and the results that can be obtained: a series of tests were performed with monodispersed fluorescein aerosols injected into a cracked concrete sample. A key result that should be further explored refers to the high enhancement of aerosol retention that could be due to steam condensation. Recommendations concerning future experimentation are also given in the paper. (author)
Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications
Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia
2015-01-01
Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on
Bayesian image restoration, using configurations
Thorarinsdottir, Thordis
2006-01-01
In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the re...
Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø
Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...
Cox, S. J.; Stackhouse, P. W., Jr.; Mikovitz, J. C.; Zhang, T.
2017-12-01
The NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project produces shortwave and longwave surface and top of atmosphere radiative fluxes for the 1983-near present time period. Spatial resolution is 1 degree. The new Release 4 uses the newly processed ISCCP HXS product as its primary input for cloud and radiance data. The ninefold increase in pixel number compared to the previous ISCCP DX allows finer gradations in cloud fraction in each grid box. It will also allow higher spatial resolutions (0.5 degree) in future releases. In addition to the input data improvements, several important algorithm improvements have been made since Release 3. These include recalculated atmospheric transmissivities and reflectivities yielding a less transmissive atmosphere. The calculations also include variable aerosol composition, allowing for the use of a detailed aerosol history from the Max Planck Institut Aerosol Climatology (MAC). Ocean albedo and snow/ice albedo are also improved from Release 3. Total solar irradiance is now variable, averaging 1361 Wm-2. Water vapor is taken from ISCCP's nnHIRS product. Results from GSW Release 4 are presented and analyzed. Early comparison to surface measurements show improved agreement.
A transuranic aerosol measurement system: Preliminary results
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Prevo, C.T.; Kaifer, R.C.; Rueppel, D.W.; Delvasto, R.M.; Biermann, A.H.; Phelps, P.L.
1986-10-01
We have completed the design, fabrication, and assembly of a computer-based prototype system for the measurement of transuranic aerosols in the workplace and environment. This system (called WOTAMS for Workplace Transuranic Aerosol Measurement System) incorporates two detectors: (1) an in-line solid-state alpha detector that sends out an alarm the moment a transuranic release occurs, and (2) an in-vacuum detector that increases off-line-analysis sensitivity. The in-line sensitivity of the system is better than 5.0 MPC-h, and the in-vacuum sensitivity exceeds 0.5 MPC-h. 5 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab
A Bayesian Analysis of the Flood Frequency Hydrology Concept
2016-02-01
ERDC/CHL CHETN-X-1 February 2016 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. A Bayesian Analysis of the Flood Frequency Hydrology ...flood frequency hydrology concept as a formal probabilistic-based means by which to coherently combine and also evaluate the worth of different types...and development. INTRODUCTION: Merz and Blöschl (2008a,b) proposed the concept of flood frequency hydrology , which emphasizes the importance of
Characterization of Sodium Spray Aerosols
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nelson, C. T.; Koontz, R. L.; Silberberg, M. [Atomics International, North American Rockwell Corporation, Canoga Park, CA (United States)
1968-12-15
The consequences of pool and spray fires require evaluation in the safety analysis of liquid metal-cooled fast breeder reactors. Sodium spray fires are characterized by high temperature and pressure, produced during the rapid combustion of sodium in air. Following the initial energy release, some fraction of the reaction products are available as aerosols which follow the normal laws of agglomeration, growth, settling, and plating. An experimental study is underway at Atomics International to study the characteristics of high concentration sprays of liquid sodium in reduced oxygen atmospheres and in air. The experiments are conducted in a 31.5 ft{sup 3} (2 ft diam. by 10 ft high) vessel, certified for a pressure of 100 lb/in{sup 2} (gauge). The spray injection apparatus consists of a heated sodium supply pot and a spray nozzle through which liquid sodium is driven by nitrogen pressure. Spray rate and droplet size can be varied by the injection velocity (nozzle size, nitrogen pressure, and sodium temperature). Aerosols produced in 0, 4, and 10 vol. % oxygen environments have been studied. The concentration and particle size distribution of the material remaining in the air after the spray injection and reaction period are measured. Fallout rates are found to be proportional to the concentration of aerosol which remains airborne following the spray period. (author)
Influence of moisture on the behavior of aerosols
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Adams, R.E.; Longest, A.W.; Tobias, M.L.
1986-01-01
The behavior of aerosols assumed to be characteristic of those generated during light water reactor (LWR) accident sequences and released into containment has been studied in the Nuclear Safety Pilot Plant (NSPP) located at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). It has been observed that in a saturated steam-air environment a change occurs in the shape of aerosol agglomerates of U 3 O 8 aerosol, Fe 2 O 3 aerosol, and mixed U 3 O 8 -Fe 2 O 3 aerosol from branched-chain to spherical, and that the rate of reduction in the airborne aerosol mass concentration is increased relative to the rate observed in a dry atmosphere. The effect of a steam-air environment on the behavior of concrete aerosol is different. The shape of the agglomerated concrete aerosol is intermediate between branched-chain and spherical and the effect on the rate of reduction in airborne mass concentration appears to be slight. In a related project the shape of an agglomerated Fe 2 O 3 aerosol was observed to change from branched-chain to spherical at, or near, 100% relative humidity
Influence of moisture on the behavior of aerosols
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Adams, R.E.; Longest, A.W.; Tobias, M.L.
1987-01-01
The behavior of aerosols assumed to be characteristic of those generated during light water reactor accident sequences and released into containment has been studied in the Nuclear Safety Pilot Plant located at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. It has been observed that in a saturated steam-air environment a change occurs in the shape of aerosol agglomerates of U 3 O 8 aerosol, Fe 2 O 3 aerosol, and mixed U 3 O 8 -Fe 2 O 3 aerosol from branched-chain to spherical, and that the rate of reduction in the airborne aerosol mass concentration is increased relative to the rate observed in a dry atmosphere. The effect of a steam-air environment on the behavior of concrete aerosol is different. The shape of the agglomerated concrete aerosol is intermediate between branched-chain and spherical and the effect on the rate of reduction in airborne mass concentration appears to be slight. In a related project the shape of an agglomerated Fe 2 O 3 aerosol was observed to change from branched-chain to spherical at, or near, 100% relative humidity
A Bayesian ensemble of sensitivity measures for severe accident modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Department of Basic Sciences, East Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Di Maio, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaio@polimi.it [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Vagnoli, Matteo [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Zio, Enrico [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Chair on System Science and Energetic Challenge, Fondation EDF – Electricite de France Ecole Centrale, Paris, and Supelec, Paris (France); Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)
2015-12-15
Highlights: • We propose a sensitivity analysis (SA) method based on a Bayesian updating scheme. • The Bayesian updating schemes adjourns an ensemble of sensitivity measures. • Bootstrap replicates of a severe accident code output are fed to the Bayesian scheme. • The MELCOR code simulates the fission products release of LOFT LP-FP-2 experiment. • Results are compared with those of traditional SA methods. - Abstract: In this work, a sensitivity analysis framework is presented to identify the relevant input variables of a severe accident code, based on an incremental Bayesian ensemble updating method. The proposed methodology entails: (i) the propagation of the uncertainty in the input variables through the severe accident code; (ii) the collection of bootstrap replicates of the input and output of limited number of simulations for building a set of finite mixture models (FMMs) for approximating the probability density function (pdf) of the severe accident code output of the replicates; (iii) for each FMM, the calculation of an ensemble of sensitivity measures (i.e., input saliency, Hellinger distance and Kullback–Leibler divergence) and the updating when a new piece of evidence arrives, by a Bayesian scheme, based on the Bradley–Terry model for ranking the most relevant input model variables. An application is given with respect to a limited number of simulations of a MELCOR severe accident model describing the fission products release in the LP-FP-2 experiment of the loss of fluid test (LOFT) facility, which is a scaled-down facility of a pressurized water reactor (PWR).
Degraded core accidents: review of aerosol behaviour in the containment of a PWR
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nichols, A.L.; Walker, B.C.
1981-09-01
Low probability-high consequence accidents have become an important issue in reactor safety studies. Such accidents would involve damage to the core and the subsequent release of radioactive fission products into the environment. Aerosols play a major role in the transport and removal of these fission products in the reactor building containment. The aerosol mechanisms, computer modelling codes and experimental studies used to predict aerosol behaviour in the containment of a PWR are reviewed. There are significant uncertainties in the aerosol source terms and specific recommendations have been made for further studies, particularly with respect to code development and high density aerosol-fission product transport within closed systems. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Firnhaber, M.; Kanzleiter, T.F.; Schwarz, S.; Weber, G.
1996-12-01
This paper presents the results and assessment of the 'open' ISP37, which deals with the containment thermal-hydraulics and aerosol behavior during an unmitigated severe LWR accident with core melt-down and steam and aerosol release into the containment. Representatives of 22 organizations participated to the ISP37 using the codes CONTAIN, FIPLOC, MELCOR, RALOC, FUMO, MACRES, REMOVAL etc. The containment and aerosol behavior experiment VANAM M3 was selected as experimental comparison basis. The main phenomena investigated are the thermal behavior of a multi-compartment containment, e.g. pressure, temperature and the distribution and depletion of a soluble aerosol. The ISP37 has demonstrated that the codes used could calculate the thermal-hydraulic containment behavior in general with sufficient accuracy. But with respect to the needs of aerosol behavior analysis the accuracies, both analytical and experimental as well, for specific thermal-hydraulic variables should be improved. Although large progress has been made in the simulation of aerosol behavior in multi-compartment geometries the calculated local aerosol concentrations scatter widely. However, the aerosol source term to the environment is overestimated in general. The largest uncertainty concerning the aerosol results is caused by a limited number of thermal hydraulic variables like relative humidity, volume condensation rate and atmospheric flow rate. In some codes also a solubility model is missing
Bayesian seismic AVO inversion
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Buland, Arild
2002-07-01
A new linearized AVO inversion technique is developed in a Bayesian framework. The objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity and density. Distributions for other elastic parameters can also be assessed, for example acoustic impedance, shear impedance and P-wave to S-wave velocity ratio. The inversion algorithm is based on the convolutional model and a linearized weak contrast approximation of the Zoeppritz equation. The solution is represented by a Gaussian posterior distribution with explicit expressions for the posterior expectation and covariance, hence exact prediction intervals for the inverted parameters can be computed under the specified model. The explicit analytical form of the posterior distribution provides a computationally fast inversion method. Tests on synthetic data show that all inverted parameters were almost perfectly retrieved when the noise approached zero. With realistic noise levels, acoustic impedance was the best determined parameter, while the inversion provided practically no information about the density. The inversion algorithm has also been tested on a real 3-D dataset from the Sleipner Field. The results show good agreement with well logs but the uncertainty is high. The stochastic model includes uncertainties of both the elastic parameters, the wavelet and the seismic and well log data. The posterior distribution is explored by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. The inversion algorithm has been tested on a seismic line from the Heidrun Field with two wells located on the line. The uncertainty of the estimated wavelet is low. In the Heidrun examples the effect of including uncertainty of the wavelet and the noise level was marginal with respect to the AVO inversion results. We have developed a 3-D linearized AVO inversion method with spatially coupled model parameters where the objective is to obtain posterior distributions for P-wave velocity, S
Shaw, Glenn E.
1988-02-01
Tropospheric aerosols with the diameter range of half a micron reside in the atmosphere for tens of days and teleconnect Antarctica with other regions by transport that reaches planetary scales of distances; thus, the aerosol on the Antarctic ice represents 'memory modules' of events that took place at regions separated from Antarctica by tens of thousands of kilometers. In terms of aerosol mass, the aerosol species include insoluble crustal products (less than 5 percent), transported sea-salt residues (highly variable but averaging about 10 percent), Ni-rich meteoric material, and anomalously enriched material with an unknown origin. Most (70-90 percent by mass) of the aerosol over the Antarctic ice shield, however, is the 'natural acid sulfate aerosol', apparently deriving from biological processes taking place in the surrounding oceans.
Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...
Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value
Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Tutorial.
Li, Yuelin; Lord-Bessen, Jennifer; Shiyko, Mariya; Loeb, Rebecca
2018-01-01
This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles. Technical difficulties are addressed by a hypothetical, worked-out example. We show how Bayesian computation can be broken down into a series of simpler calculations, which can then be assembled together to complete a computationally more complex model. The details are described much more explicitly than what is typically available in elementary introductions to Bayesian modeling so that readers are not overwhelmed by the mathematics. Moreover, the provided computer program shows how Bayesian LCA can be implemented with relative ease. The computer program is then applied in a large, real-world data set and explained line-by-line. We outline the general steps in how to extend these considerations to other methodological applications. We conclude with suggestions for further readings.
Kernel Bayesian ART and ARTMAP.
Masuyama, Naoki; Loo, Chu Kiong; Dawood, Farhan
2018-02-01
Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) is one of the successful approaches to resolving "the plasticity-stability dilemma" in neural networks, and its supervised learning model called ARTMAP is a powerful tool for classification. Among several improvements, such as Fuzzy or Gaussian based models, the state of art model is Bayesian based one, while solving the drawbacks of others. However, it is known that the Bayesian approach for the high dimensional and a large number of data requires high computational cost, and the covariance matrix in likelihood becomes unstable. This paper introduces Kernel Bayesian ART (KBA) and ARTMAP (KBAM) by integrating Kernel Bayes' Rule (KBR) and Correntropy Induced Metric (CIM) to Bayesian ART (BA) and ARTMAP (BAM), respectively, while maintaining the properties of BA and BAM. The kernel frameworks in KBA and KBAM are able to avoid the curse of dimensionality. In addition, the covariance-free Bayesian computation by KBR provides the efficient and stable computational capability to KBA and KBAM. Furthermore, Correntropy-based similarity measurement allows improving the noise reduction ability even in the high dimensional space. The simulation experiments show that KBA performs an outstanding self-organizing capability than BA, and KBAM provides the superior classification ability than BAM, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Local transport of vertically and horizontally emitted sodium oxide aerosols
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fields, D.E.; Miller, C.W.; Cooper, A.C.
1986-01-01
Liquid-metal-cooled breeder reactors are expected to use large quantities of sodium or sodium-potassium alloy, and evaluation of the possible consequences of a liquid-metal fire, henceforth referred to as a sodium fire, is an important consideration. Of particular interest is the sodium aerosol concentration at the air intake ports that are used for reactor cooling, and which might suffer restricted flow under high aerosol concentrations. The authors have devised and applied a methodology for estimating the concentration of aerosols released vertically and horizontally from building surfaces and monitored at other building surface points. This methodology has been used to make calculations that indicate the time development of aerosol buildup, and the maximum aerosol concentration, at air intake ports. Building wake effects, momentum-driven plume rise, and density-driven plume rise are considered
Radioactive aerosols. [In Russian
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Natanson, G L
1956-01-01
Tabulations are given presenting various published data on safe atmospheric concentrations of various radioactive and non-radioactive aerosols. Methods of determination of active aerosol concentrations and dispersion as well as the technical applications of labeled aerosols are discussed. The effect of atomic explosions are analyzed considering the nominal atomic bomb based on /sup 235/U and /sup 232/Pu equivalent to 20,000 tons of TNT.
Aerosols from biomass combustion
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nussbaumer, T
2001-07-01
This report is the proceedings of a seminar on biomass combustion and aerosol production organised jointly by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Task 32 on bio energy and the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE). This collection of 16 papers discusses the production of aerosols and fine particles by the burning of biomass and their effects. Expert knowledge on the environmental impact of aerosols, formation mechanisms, measurement technologies, methods of analysis and measures to be taken to reduce such emissions is presented. The seminar, visited by 50 participants from 11 countries, shows, according to the authors, that the reduction of aerosol emissions resulting from biomass combustion will remain a challenge for the future.
Assessment of need for transport tubes when continuously monitoring for radioactive aerosols
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Whicker, J.J.; Rodgers, J.C.; Lopez, R.C.
1999-09-01
Aerosol transport tubes are often used to draw aerosol from desirable sampling locations to nearby air sampling equipment that cannot be placed at that location. In many plutonium laboratories at Los Alamos National Laboratory, aerosol transport tubes are used to transport aerosol from the front of room ventilation exhaust registers to continuous air monitors (CAMs) that are mounted on nearby walls. Despite designs to minimize particle loss in tubes, aerosol transport model predictions suggest losses occur lowering the sensitivity of CAMs to accidentally released plutonium aerosol. The goal of this study was to test the hypotheses that the reliability, speed, and sensitivity of aerosol detection would be equal whether the sample was extracted from the front of the exhaust register or from the wall location of CAMs. Polydisperse oil aerosols were released from multiple locations in two plutonium laboratories to simulate plutonium aerosol releases. Networked laser particle counters (LPCs) were positioned to simultaneously measure time-resolved aerosol concentrations at each exhaust register and at each wall-mounted CAM location.
Assessment of need for transport tubes when continuously monitoring for radioactive aerosols.
Whicker, J J; Rodgers, J C; Lopez, R C
1999-09-01
Aerosol transport tubes are often used to draw aerosol from desirable sampling locations to nearby air sampling equipment that cannot be placed at that location. In many plutonium laboratories at Los Alamos National Laboratory, aerosol transport tubes are used to transport aerosol from the front of room ventilation exhaust registers to continuous air monitors (CAMs) that are mounted on nearby walls. Transport tubes are used because past guidance suggests that extraction of aerosol samples from exhaust locations provides the most sensitive and reliable detection under conditions where the rooms have unpredictable release locations and significant spatial variability in aerosol concentrations after releases, and where CAMs cannot be located in front of exhaust registers without blocking worker walkways. Despite designs to minimize particle loss in tubes, aerosol transport model predictions suggest losses occur lowering the sensitivity of CAMs to accidentally released plutonium aerosol. The goal of this study was to test the hypotheses that the reliability, speed, and sensitivity of aerosol detection would be equal whether the sample was extracted from the front of the exhaust register or from the wall location of CAMs. Polydisperse oil aerosols were released from multiple locations in two plutonium laboratories to simulate plutonium aerosol releases. Networked laser particle counters (LPCs) were positioned to simultaneously measure time-resolved aerosol concentrations at each exhaust register (representative of sampling with transport tubes) and at each wall-mounted CAM location (representative of sampling without transport tubes). Results showed no significant differences in detection reliability, speed, or sensitivity for LPCs positioned at exhaust locations when compared to LPCs positioned at the CAM wall location. Therefore, elimination of transport tubes would likely improve CAM performance.
Interactive Instruction in Bayesian Inference
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Khan, Azam; Breslav, Simon; Hornbæk, Kasper
2018-01-01
An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction. These pri......An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction....... These principles concern coherence, personalization, signaling, segmenting, multimedia, spatial contiguity, and pretraining. Principles of self-explanation and interactivity are also applied. Four experiments on the Mammography Problem showed that these principles help participants answer the questions...... that an instructional approach to improving human performance in Bayesian inference is a promising direction....
Probability biases as Bayesian inference
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andre; C. R. Martins
2006-11-01
Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.
Bayesian analysis of CCDM models
Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.
2017-09-01
Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.
Bayesian analysis of CCDM models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)
2017-09-01
Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.
Devices and methods for generating an aerosol
Bisetti, Fabrizio; Scribano, Gianfranco
2016-01-01
Aerosol generators and methods of generating aerosols are provided. The aerosol can be generated at a stagnation interface between a hot, wet stream and a cold, dry stream. The aerosol has the benefit that the properties of the aerosol can
LMFBR source term experiments in the Fuel Aerosol Simulant Test (FAST) facility
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Petrykowski, J.C.; Longest, A.W.
1985-01-01
The transport of uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) aerosol through liquid sodium was studied in a series of ten experiments in the Fuel Aerosol Simulant Test (FAST) facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The experiments were designed to provide a mechanistic basis for evaluating the radiological source term associated with a postulated, energetic core disruptive accident (CDA) in a liquid metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR). Aerosol was generated by capacitor discharge vaporization of UO 2 pellets which were submerged in a sodium pool under an argon cover gas. Measurements of the pool and cover gas pressures were used to study the transport of aerosol contained by vapor bubbles within the pool. Samples of cover gas were filtered to determine the quantity of aerosol released from the pool. The depth at which the aerosol was generated was found to be the most critical parameter affecting release. The largest release was observed in the baseline experiment where the sample was vaporized above the sodium pool. In the nine ''undersodium'' experiments aerosol was generated beneath the surface of the pool at depths varying from 30 to 1060 mm. The mass of aerosol released from the pool was found to be a very small fraction of the original specimen. It appears that the bulk of aerosol was contained by bubbles which collapsed within the pool. 18 refs., 11 figs., 4 tabs
Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data
Liang, Faming; Zhang, Jian
2009-01-01
Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly
Bayesian Network Induction via Local Neighborhoods
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Margaritis, Dimitris
1999-01-01
.... We present an efficient algorithm for learning Bayesian networks from data. Our approach constructs Bayesian networks by first identifying each node's Markov blankets, then connecting nodes in a consistent way...
Can a significance test be genuinely Bayesian?
Pereira, Carlos A. de B.; Stern, Julio Michael; Wechsler, Sergio
2008-01-01
The Full Bayesian Significance Test, FBST, is extensively reviewed. Its test statistic, a genuine Bayesian measure of evidence, is discussed in detail. Its behavior in some problems of statistical inference like testing for independence in contingency tables is discussed.
Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS
Ntzoufras, Ioannis
2009-01-01
A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...
Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas D.; Rumi, Rafael; Salmeron, Antonio
2009-01-01
Since the 1980s, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability techniques (like fault trees and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (the so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability.
3D Bayesian contextual classifiers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Rasmus
2000-01-01
We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours.......We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours....
Electrospray ionizer for mass spectrometry of aerosol particles
He, Siqin; Hogan, Chris; Li, Lin; Liu, Benjamin Y. H.; Naqwi, Amir; Romay, Francisco
2017-09-19
A device and method are disclosed to apply ESI-based mass spectroscopy to submicrometer and nanometer scale aerosol particles. Unipolar ionization is utilized to charge the particles in order to collect them electrostatically on the tip of a tungsten rod. Subsequently, the species composing the collected particles are dissolved by making a liquid flow over the tungsten rod. This liquid with dissolved aerosol contents is formed into highly charged droplets, which release unfragmented ions for mass spectroscopy, such as time-of-flight mass spectroscopy. The device is configured to operate in a switching mode, wherein aerosol deposition occurs while solvent delivery is turned off and vice versa.
Small scale studies of production of fissium aerosols
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lindqvist, O.; Rydberg, J.
1983-02-01
A small scale study concerning the production and analysis of fission product aerosols formed at various temperatures as a function of the chemical composition of the fissium/corium mixture at the source is presented. CsOH, CsJ and Te are the main aerosol components to be expected. The thermodynamic characterization of occuring Te-iodides and other phases is of great importance for reactor core meltdown chemistry and for the evaluation of the aerosol transport tests. Elemental iodine seems not to be released in significant amounts in reducing atmosphere. Analysis data concerning elements, phases, themral analysis and gases are presented. (G.B.)
Bayesian methods for proteomic biomarker development
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Belinda Hernández
2015-12-01
In this review we provide an introduction to Bayesian inference and demonstrate some of the advantages of using a Bayesian framework. We summarize how Bayesian methods have been used previously in proteomics and other areas of bioinformatics. Finally, we describe some popular and emerging Bayesian models from the statistical literature and provide a worked tutorial including code snippets to show how these methods may be applied for the evaluation of proteomic biomarkers.
The impact of precipitation evaporation on the atmospheric aerosol distribution in EC-Earth v3.2.0
de Bruine, Marco; Krol, Maarten; van Noije, Twan; Le Sager, Philippe; Röckmann, Thomas
2018-04-01
The representation of aerosol-cloud interaction in global climate models (GCMs) remains a large source of uncertainty in climate projections. Due to its complexity, precipitation evaporation is either ignored or taken into account in a simplified manner in GCMs. This research explores various ways to treat aerosol resuspension and determines the possible impact of precipitation evaporation and subsequent aerosol resuspension on global aerosol burdens and distribution. The representation of aerosol wet deposition by large-scale precipitation in the EC-Earth model has been improved by utilising additional precipitation-related 3-D fields from the dynamical core, the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) general circulation model, in the chemistry and aerosol module Tracer Model, version 5 (TM5). A simple approach of scaling aerosol release with evaporated precipitation fraction leads to an increase in the global aerosol burden (+7.8 to +15 % for different aerosol species). However, when taking into account the different sizes and evaporation rate of raindrops following Gong et al. (2006), the release of aerosols is strongly reduced, and the total aerosol burden decreases by -3.0 to -8.5 %. Moreover, inclusion of cloud processing based on observations by Mitra et al. (1992) transforms scavenged small aerosol to coarse particles, which enhances removal by sedimentation and hence leads to a -10 to -11 % lower aerosol burden. Finally, when these two effects are combined, the global aerosol burden decreases by -11 to -19 %. Compared to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations, aerosol optical depth (AOD) is generally underestimated in most parts of the world in all configurations of the TM5 model and although the representation is now physically more realistic, global AOD shows no large improvements in spatial patterns. Similarly, the agreement of the vertical profile with Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP
Bayesian networks and food security - An introduction
Stein, A.
2004-01-01
This paper gives an introduction to Bayesian networks. Networks are defined and put into a Bayesian context. Directed acyclical graphs play a crucial role here. Two simple examples from food security are addressed. Possible uses of Bayesian networks for implementation and further use in decision
Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner
2003-01-01
been shown to be quite suitable for dynamic domains as well. However, processing object oriented Bayesian networks in practice does not take advantage of their modular structure. Normally the object oriented Bayesian network is transformed into a Bayesian network and, inference is performed...... dynamic domains. The communication needed between instances is achieved by means of a fill-in propagation scheme....
A Bayesian framework for risk perception
van Erp, H.R.N.
2017-01-01
We present here a Bayesian framework of risk perception. This framework encompasses plausibility judgments, decision making, and question asking. Plausibility judgments are modeled by way of Bayesian probability theory, decision making is modeled by way of a Bayesian decision theory, and relevancy
Evaluation of a radioactive aerosol surveillance system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Scripsick, R.C.; Stafford, R.G.; Beckman, R.J.; Tillery, M.I.; Romero, P.O.
Measurements of the dilution of air contaminants between worker breathing zone and area air samplers were made by releasing a test aerosol in a workroom equipped with an aerosol surveillance system. The data were used to evaluate performance, and suggest improvements in design of the workroom's alarming air monitor system. It was found that a breathing zone concentration of 960 times the maximum permissible concentration in air (MPC/sub a/) for a half-hour was required to trigger alarms of the existing monitoring system under some release conditions. Alternative air monitor placement, suggested from dilution measurements, would reduce this average triggering concentration to 354 MPC/sub a/. Deployment of additional air monitors could further reduce the average triggering concentration to 241 MPC/sub a/. The relation between number of monitors and triggering concentration was studied. No significant decrease in average triggering concentration was noted for arrays containing greater than five monitors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi; Koch, Dorothy; Bond, Tami; Tsigaridis, Kostas
2010-01-01
Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a likely short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, cloud-indirect and semi-direct forcing effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and its climate interactions. Black carbon is directly released as particle into the atmosphere, but then interacts with other gases and particles through condensation and coagulation processes leading to further aerosol growth, aging and internal mixing. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the global GISS modelE includes the above processes that determine the lifecycle and climate impact of aerosols. This study presents a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative forcing. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative forcing change is -0.56 W/m 2 between 1750 and 2000. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are very sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative forcing change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m 2 depending on these carbonaceous particle properties. Assuming that sulfates, nitrates and secondary organics form a coating shell around a black carbon core, rather than forming a uniformly mixed particles, changes the overall net radiative forcing from a negative to a positive number. Black carbon mitigation scenarios showed generally a benefit when mainly black carbon sources such as diesel emissions are reduced, reducing organic and black carbon sources such as bio-fuels, does not lead to reduced warming.
Passive self-cleaning aerosol scrubber
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Postma, A.K.
1981-01-01
A hybrid gas scrubbing system is described, which includes features of both a pool type scrubber and a sand or ground filter, for use on nuclear reactor containment buildings to limit release of aerosol particles and absorbable gases, including radio-active materials, during postulated major accidents. The system requires no energy while in the passive state and no active energy other than pressurization of the stream of gas being scrubbed. (U.K.)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Ingeborg Elbæk
2017-01-01
Since the Industrial Revolution, the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases has been increasing, leading to a rise in the global temperature. Particularly in the Arctic, climate change is having serious impact where the average temperature has increased almost twice as much as the global during......, ammonium, black carbon, and trace metals. This PhD dissertation studies Arctic aerosols and their sources, with special focus on black carbon, attempting to increase the knowledge about aerosols’ effect on the climate in an Arctic content. The first part of the dissertation examines the diversity...... of aerosol emissions from an important anthropogenic aerosol source: residential wood combustion. The second part, characterizes the chemical and physical composition of aerosols while investigating sources of aerosols in the Arctic. The main instrument used in this research has been the state...
Bayesian NL interpretation and learning
Zeevat, H.
2011-01-01
Everyday natural language communication is normally successful, even though contemporary computational linguistics has shown that NL is characterised by very high degree of ambiguity and the results of stochastic methods are not good enough to explain the high success rate. Bayesian natural language
Bayesian image restoration, using configurations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thorarinsdottir, Thordis
configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...
Bayesian image restoration, using configurations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Linda
2006-01-01
configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for the salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed...
Differentiated Bayesian Conjoint Choice Designs
Z. Sándor (Zsolt); M. Wedel (Michel)
2003-01-01
textabstractPrevious conjoint choice design construction procedures have produced a single design that is administered to all subjects. This paper proposes to construct a limited set of different designs. The designs are constructed in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account prior uncertainty about
Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø
Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...
Bayesian Sampling using Condition Indicators
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Faber, Michael H.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
2002-01-01
of condition indicators introduced by Benjamin and Cornell (1970) a Bayesian approach to quality control is formulated. The formulation is then extended to the case where the quality control is based on sampling of indirect information about the condition of the components, i.e. condition indicators...
Bayesian Classification of Image Structures
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Goswami, Dibyendu; Kalkan, Sinan; Krüger, Norbert
2009-01-01
In this paper, we describe work on Bayesian classi ers for distinguishing between homogeneous structures, textures, edges and junctions. We build semi-local classiers from hand-labeled images to distinguish between these four different kinds of structures based on the concept of intrinsic dimensi...
Bayesian estimates of linkage disequilibrium
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abad-Grau María M
2007-06-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The maximum likelihood estimator of D' – a standard measure of linkage disequilibrium – is biased toward disequilibrium, and the bias is particularly evident in small samples and rare haplotypes. Results This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation of D' to address this problem. The reduction of the bias is achieved by using a prior distribution on the pair-wise associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs that increases the likelihood of equilibrium with increasing physical distances between pairs of SNPs. We show how to compute the Bayesian estimate using a stochastic estimation based on MCMC methods, and also propose a numerical approximation to the Bayesian estimates that can be used to estimate patterns of LD in large datasets of SNPs. Conclusion Our Bayesian estimator of D' corrects the bias toward disequilibrium that affects the maximum likelihood estimator. A consequence of this feature is a more objective view about the extent of linkage disequilibrium in the human genome, and a more realistic number of tagging SNPs to fully exploit the power of genome wide association studies.
3-D contextual Bayesian classifiers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Rasmus
In this paper we will consider extensions of a series of Bayesian 2-D contextual classification pocedures proposed by Owen (1984) Hjort & Mohn (1984) and Welch & Salter (1971) and Haslett (1985) to 3 spatial dimensions. It is evident that compared to classical pixelwise classification further...
Aerosol climate time series from ESA Aerosol_cci (Invited)
Holzer-Popp, T.
2013-12-01
developed further, to evaluate the datasets and their regional and seasonal merits. The validation showed that most datasets have improved significantly and in particular PARASOL (ocean only) provides excellent results. The metrics for AATSR (land and ocean) datasets are similar to those of MODIS and MISR, with AATSR better in some land regions and less good in some others (ocean). However, AATSR coverage is smaller than that of MODIS due to swath width. The MERIS dataset provides better coverage than AATSR but has lower quality (especially over land) than the other datasets. Also the synergetic AATSR/SCIAMACHY dataset has lower quality. The evaluation of the pixel uncertainties shows first good results but also reveals that more work needs to be done to provide comprehensive information for data assimilation. Users (MACC/ECMWF, AEROCOM) confirmed the relevance of this additional information and encouraged Aerosol_cci to release the current uncertainties. The paper will summarize and discuss the results of three year work in Aerosol_cci, extract the lessons learned and conclude with an outlook to the work proposed for the next three years. In this second phase a cyclic effort of algorithm evolution, dataset generation, validation and assessment will be applied to produce and further improve complete time series from all sensors under investigation, new sensors will be added (e.g. IASI), and preparation for the Sentinel missions will be made.
Bayesian Alternation During Tactile Augmentation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Caspar Mathias Goeke
2016-10-01
Full Text Available A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition, rotation only (native condition, and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition. Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants’ responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND. Then we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred2 = 1.67 than the Bayesian integration model (χred2= 4.34. Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all model (χred2= 1.64, which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred2= 1.09 utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in
Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mutihac, R.; Cicuttin, A.; Cerdeira, A.; Stanciulescu, C.
1998-12-01
Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)
Bayesian analysis of rare events
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Straub, Daniel, E-mail: straub@tum.de; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang
2016-06-01
In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.
Aerosol processing in stratiform clouds in ECHAM6-HAM
Neubauer, David; Lohmann, Ulrike; Hoose, Corinna
2013-04-01
Aerosol processing in stratiform clouds by uptake into cloud particles, collision-coalescence, chemical processing inside the cloud particles and release back into the atmosphere has important effects on aerosol concentration, size distribution, chemical composition and mixing state. Aerosol particles can act as cloud condensation nuclei. Cloud droplets can take up further aerosol particles by collisions. Atmospheric gases may also be transferred into the cloud droplets and undergo chemical reactions, e.g. the production of atmospheric sulphate. Aerosol particles are also processed in ice crystals. They may be taken up by homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets below -38° C or by heterogeneous freezing above -38° C. This includes immersion freezing of already immersed aerosol particles in the droplets and contact freezing of particles colliding with a droplet. Many clouds do not form precipitation and also much of the precipitation evaporates before it reaches the ground. The water soluble part of the aerosol particles concentrates in the hydrometeors and together with the insoluble part forms a single, mixed, larger particle, which is released. We have implemented aerosol processing into the current version of the general circulation model ECHAM6 (Stevens et al., 2013) coupled to the aerosol module HAM (Stier et al., 2005). ECHAM6-HAM solves prognostic equations for the cloud droplet number and ice crystal number concentrations. In the standard version of HAM, seven modes are used to describe the total aerosol. The modes are divided into soluble/mixed and insoluble modes and the number concentrations and masses of different chemical components (sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, sea salt and mineral dust) are prognostic variables. We extended this by an explicit representation of aerosol particles in cloud droplets and ice crystals in stratiform clouds similar to Hoose et al. (2008a,b). Aerosol particles in cloud droplets are represented by 5 tracers for the
DARE : Dedicated Aerosols Retrieval Experiment
Smorenburg, K.; Courrèges-Lacoste, G.B.; Decae, R.; Court, A.J.; Leeuw, G. de; Visser, H.
2004-01-01
At present there is an increasing interest in remote sensing of aerosols from space because of the large impact of aerosols on climate, earth observation and health. TNO has performed a study aimed at improving aerosol characterisation using a space based instrument and state-of-the-art aerosol
Interactions of fission product vapours with aerosols
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Benson, C G; Newland, M S [AEA Technology, Winfrith (United Kingdom)
1996-12-01
Reactions between structural and reactor materials aerosols and fission product vapours released during a severe accident in a light water reactor (LWR) will influence the magnitude of the radiological source term ultimately released to the environment. The interaction of cadmium aerosol with iodine vapour at different temperatures has been examined in a programme of experiments designed to characterise the kinetics of the system. Laser induced fluorescence (LIF) is a technique that is particularly amenable to the study of systems involving elemental iodine because of the high intensity of the fluorescence lines. Therefore this technique was used in the experiments to measure the decrease in the concentration of iodine vapour as the reaction with cadmium proceeded. Experiments were conducted over the range of temperatures (20-350{sup o}C), using calibrated iodine vapour and cadmium aerosol generators that gave well-quantified sources. The LIF results provided information on the kinetics of the process, whilst examination of filter samples gave data on the composition and morphology of the aerosol particles that were formed. The results showed that the reaction of cadmium with iodine was relatively fast, giving reaction half-lives of approximately 0.3 s. This suggests that the assumption used by primary circuit codes such as VICTORIA that reaction rates are mass-transfer limited, is justified for the cadmium-iodine reaction. The reaction was first order with respect to both cadmium and iodine, and was assigned as pseudo second order overall. However, there appeared to be a dependence of aerosol surface area on the overall rate constant, making the precise order of the reaction difficult to assign. The relatively high volatility of the cadmium iodide formed in the reaction played an important role in determining the composition of the particles. (author) 23 figs., 7 tabs., 22 refs.
Interactions of fission product vapours with aerosols
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Benson, C.G.; Newland, M.S.
1996-01-01
Reactions between structural and reactor materials aerosols and fission product vapours released during a severe accident in a light water reactor (LWR) will influence the magnitude of the radiological source term ultimately released to the environment. The interaction of cadmium aerosol with iodine vapour at different temperatures has been examined in a programme of experiments designed to characterise the kinetics of the system. Laser induced fluorescence (LIF) is a technique that is particularly amenable to the study of systems involving elemental iodine because of the high intensity of the fluorescence lines. Therefore this technique was used in the experiments to measure the decrease in the concentration of iodine vapour as the reaction with cadmium proceeded. Experiments were conducted over the range of temperatures (20-350 o C), using calibrated iodine vapour and cadmium aerosol generators that gave well-quantified sources. The LIF results provided information on the kinetics of the process, whilst examination of filter samples gave data on the composition and morphology of the aerosol particles that were formed. The results showed that the reaction of cadmium with iodine was relatively fast, giving reaction half-lives of approximately 0.3 s. This suggests that the assumption used by primary circuit codes such as VICTORIA that reaction rates are mass-transfer limited, is justified for the cadmium-iodine reaction. The reaction was first order with respect to both cadmium and iodine, and was assigned as pseudo second order overall. However, there appeared to be a dependence of aerosol surface area on the overall rate constant, making the precise order of the reaction difficult to assign. The relatively high volatility of the cadmium iodide formed in the reaction played an important role in determining the composition of the particles. (author) 23 figs., 7 tabs., 22 refs
G. J. Engelhart; L. Hildebrandt; E. Kostenidou; N. Mihalopoulos; N. M. Donahue; S. N. Pandis
2010-01-01
The composition and physical properties of aged atmospheric aerosol were characterized at a remote sampling site on the northern coast of Crete, Greece during the Finokalia Aerosol Measurement Experiment in May 2008 (FAME-2008). A reduced Dry-Ambient Aerosol Size Spectrometer (DAASS) was deployed to measure the aerosol water content and volumetric growth factor of fine particulate matter. The particles remained wet even at relative humidity (RH) as low as 20%. The aerosol was acidic during mo...
Bayesian estimation methods in metrology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cox, M.G.; Forbes, A.B.; Harris, P.M.
2004-01-01
In metrology -- the science of measurement -- a measurement result must be accompanied by a statement of its associated uncertainty. The degree of validity of a measurement result is determined by the validity of the uncertainty statement. In recognition of the importance of uncertainty evaluation, the International Standardization Organization in 1995 published the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement and the Guide has been widely adopted. The validity of uncertainty statements is tested in interlaboratory comparisons in which an artefact is measured by a number of laboratories and their measurement results compared. Since the introduction of the Mutual Recognition Arrangement, key comparisons are being undertaken to determine the degree of equivalence of laboratories for particular measurement tasks. In this paper, we discuss the possible development of the Guide to reflect Bayesian approaches and the evaluation of key comparison data using Bayesian estimation methods
Deep Learning and Bayesian Methods
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Prosper Harrison B.
2017-01-01
Full Text Available A revolution is underway in which deep neural networks are routinely used to solve diffcult problems such as face recognition and natural language understanding. Particle physicists have taken notice and have started to deploy these methods, achieving results that suggest a potentially significant shift in how data might be analyzed in the not too distant future. We discuss a few recent developments in the application of deep neural networks and then indulge in speculation about how such methods might be used to automate certain aspects of data analysis in particle physics. Next, the connection to Bayesian methods is discussed and the paper ends with thoughts on a significant practical issue, namely, how, from a Bayesian perspective, one might optimize the construction of deep neural networks.
Bayesian inference on proportional elections.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello
Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.
BAYESIAN IMAGE RESTORATION, USING CONFIGURATIONS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir
2011-05-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed in detail for 3 X 3 and 5 X 5 configurations and examples of the performance of the procedure are given.
Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network
Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.
2001-01-01
With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores
Multiview Bayesian Correlated Component Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kamronn, Simon Due; Poulsen, Andreas Trier; Hansen, Lars Kai
2015-01-01
are identical. Here we propose a hierarchical probabilistic model that can infer the level of universality in such multiview data, from completely unrelated representations, corresponding to canonical correlation analysis, to identical representations as in correlated component analysis. This new model, which...... we denote Bayesian correlated component analysis, evaluates favorably against three relevant algorithms in simulated data. A well-established benchmark EEG data set is used to further validate the new model and infer the variability of spatial representations across multiple subjects....
Sodium oxide aerosol filtration
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Duverger de Cuy, G [DSN/SESTR, Centre de Cadarache, Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France)
1979-03-01
In the scope of the sodium aerosol trapping research effort by the CEA/DSN, the retention capacity and yield were measured for very high efficiency fiberglass filters and several types of prefilters (cyclone agglomerator, fabric prefilters, water scrubbers). (author)
Sodium aerosol recovering device
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fujimori, Koji; Ueda, Mitsuo; Tanaka, Kazuhisa.
1997-01-01
A main body of a recovering device is disposed in a sodium cooled reactor or a sodium cooled test device. Air containing sodium aerosol is sucked into the main body of the recovering device by a recycling fan and introduced to a multi-staged metal mesh filter portion. The air about against each of the metal mesh filters, and the sodium aerosol in the air is collected. The air having a reduced sodium aerosol concentration circulates passing through a recycling fan and pipelines to form a circulation air streams. Sodium aerosol deposited on each of the metal mesh filters is scraped off periodically by a scraper driving device to prevent clogging of each of the metal filters. (I.N.)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marlow, W.H.
1982-01-01
A classification of the research fields in the chemical physics of aerosol microparticles is given. The emphasis lies on the microphysics of isolated particles and clusters and on physical transformations and thermodynamics. (LDN)
Sodium oxide aerosol filtration
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Duverger de Cuy, G.
1979-01-01
In the scope of the sodium aerosol trapping research effort by the CEA/DSN, the retention capacity and yield were measured for very high efficiency fiberglass filters and several types of prefilters (cyclone agglomerator, fabric prefilters, water scrubbers). (author)
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
aerosols, clouds, radiation and climate. ... the solar radiation to pass through but absorb most of infrared radiation emitted .... Fine soil and sand particles become airborne due to wind. Over ..... its sampling is difficult compared to other species.
Aerosols from biomass combustion
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nussbaumer, T.
2001-07-01
This report is the proceedings of a seminar on biomass combustion and aerosol production organised jointly by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Task 32 on bio energy and the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE). This collection of 16 papers discusses the production of aerosols and fine particles by the burning of biomass and their effects. Expert knowledge on the environmental impact of aerosols, formation mechanisms, measurement technologies, methods of analysis and measures to be taken to reduce such emissions is presented. The seminar, visited by 50 participants from 11 countries, shows, according to the authors, that the reduction of aerosol emissions resulting from biomass combustion will remain a challenge for the future.
Preliminary results of the aerosol optical depth retrieval in Johor, Malaysia
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lim, H Q; Lau, A M S; Kanniah, K D
2014-01-01
Monitoring of atmospheric aerosols over the urban area is important as tremendous amounts of pollutants are released by industrial activities and heavy traffic flow. Air quality monitoring by satellite observation provides better spatial coverage, however, detailed aerosol properties retrieval remains a challenge. This is due to the limitation of aerosol retrieval algorithm on high reflectance (bright surface) areas. The aim of this study is to retrieve aerosol optical depth over urban areas of Iskandar Malaysia; the main southern development zone in Johor state, using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 500 m resolution data. One of the important steps is the aerosol optical depth retrieval is to characterise different types of aerosols in the study area. This information will be used to construct a Look Up Table containing the simulated aerosol reflectance and corresponding aerosol optical depth. Thus, in this study we have characterised different aerosol types in the study area using Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data. These data were processed using cluster analysis and the preliminary results show that the area is consisting of coastal urban (65%), polluted urban (27.5%), dust particles (6%) and heavy pollution (1.5%) aerosols
Lessons learned from case studies of worker exposures to radioactive aerosols
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hoover, M.D.; Guilmette, R.A.; Scott, B.R.
1995-01-01
Considerable efforts in the aerosol science and health protection communities are devoted to developing a defensible technical basis for measuring, modeling, and mitigating toxic aerosols. These efforts involve understanding aerosol source terms, projecting potential aerosol releases, describing their behavior in the workplace and environment, developing instruments and techniques to measure the aerosols, designing ways to contain or control the aerosols, modeling and measuring uptake by workers and other people, estimating health effects, and planning appropriate responses. To help in this effort, we have compiled a data base of case studies involving releases of aerosols and worker exposures in a wide range of industries. Sources of information have included personal communications, limited distribution reports, open literature publications, and reports of abnormal occurrences in U.S. Department of Energy facilities and among licensees of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The data base currently includes more than 100 cases. The case studies have been organized according to the radionuclides involved and the circumstances and consequences of the release. This information has been used to address a number of important questions, such as the adequacy of current aerosol sampling and monitoring procedures, areas needing improvement, and strategies for planning for or responding to accidents. One area of particular interest is related to strategies for prospective or retrospective characterization of aerosol source terms. In some cases, worker exposures have involved aerosols that are similar in particle size distribution, composition, and solubility to aerosols routinely produced in the normal process activities. In such cases, prospective characterization of aerosol source terms has provided relevant and useful information
Attachment of gaseous fission products to aerosols
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Skyrme, G.
1985-01-01
Accidents may occur in which the integrity of fuel cladding is breached and volatile fission products are released to the containment atmosphere. In order to assess the magnitude of the subsequent radiological hazard it is necessary to know the transport behaviour of such fission products. It is frequently assumed that the fission products remain in the gaseous phase. There is a possibility, however, that they may attach themselves to particles and hence substantially modify their transport properties. This paper provides a theoretical assessment of the conditions under which gaseous fission products may be attached to aerosol particles. Specific topics discussed are: the mass transfer of a gaseous fission product to an isolated aerosol particle in an infinite medium; the rate at which the concentration of fission products in the gas phase diminishes within a container as a result of deposition on a population of particles; and the distribution of deposited fission product between different particle sizes in a log-normal distribution. It is shown that, for a given mass, small particles are more efficient for fission product attachment, and that only small concentrations of such particles may be necessary to achieve rapid attachment. Conditions under which gaseous fission products are not attached to particles are also considered, viz, the competing processes of deposition onto the containment walls and onto aerosol particles, and the possibility of the removal of aerosols from the containment by various deposition processes, or agglomeration, before attachment takes place. (author)
Emergency Protection from Aerosols
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cristy, G.A.
2001-11-13
Expedient methods were developed that could be used by an average person, using only materials readily available, to protect himself and his family from injury by toxic (e.g., radioactive) aerosols. The most effective means of protection was the use of a household vacuum cleaner to maintain a small positive pressure on a closed house during passage of the aerosol cloud. Protection factors of 800 and above were achieved.
Emergency protection from aerosols
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cristy, G.A.; Chester, C.V.
1981-07-01
Expedient methods were developed that could be used by an average person, using only materials readily available, to protect himself and his family from injury by toxic (e.g., radioactive) aerosols. The most effective means of protection was the use of a household vacuum cleaner to maintain a small positive pressure on a closed house during passage of the aerosol cloud. Protection factors of 800 and above were achieved
Kahn, Ralph A.
2014-01-01
AeroCom is an open international initiative of scientists interested in the advancement of the understanding of global aerosol properties and aerosol impacts on climate. A central goal is to more strongly tie and constrain modeling efforts to observational data. A major element for exchanges between data and modeling groups are annual meetings. The meeting was held September 20 through October 2, 1014 and the organizers would like to post the presentations.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ha, Kwang Soon; Kim, Sung Il; Jang, Jin Sung; Kim, Dong Ha
2016-01-01
The gas and aerosol phases of the radioactive materials move through the reactor coolant systems and containments as loaded on the carrier gas or liquid, such as steam or water. Most radioactive materials might escape in the form of aerosols from a nuclear power plant during a severe reactor accident, and it is very important to predict the behavior of these radioactive aerosols in the reactor cooling system and in the containment building under severe accident conditions. Aerosols are designated as very small solid particles or liquid droplets suspended in a gas phase. The suspended solid or liquid particles typically have a range of sizes of 0.01 m to 20 m. Aerosol concentrations in reactor accident analyses are typically less than 100 g/m3 and usually less than 1 g/m3. When there are continuing sources of aerosol to the gas phase or when there are complicated processes involving engineered safety features, much more complicated size distributions develop. It is not uncommon for aerosols in reactor containments to have bimodal size distributions for at least some significant periods of time early during an accident. Salient features of aerosol physics under reactor accident conditions that will affect the nature of the aerosols are (1) the formation of aerosol particles, (2) growth of aerosol particles, (3) shape of aerosol particles. At KAERI, a fission product module has been developed to predict the behaviors of the radioactive materials in the reactor coolant system under severe accident conditions. The fission product module consists of an estimation of the initial inventories, species release from the core, aerosol generation, gas transport, and aerosol transport. The final outcomes of the fission product module designate the radioactive gas and aerosol distribution in the reactor coolant system. The aerosol sedimentation models in the fission product module were validated using ABCOVE and LACE experiments. There were some discrepancies on the predicted
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ha, Kwang Soon; Kim, Sung Il; Jang, Jin Sung; Kim, Dong Ha [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2016-05-15
The gas and aerosol phases of the radioactive materials move through the reactor coolant systems and containments as loaded on the carrier gas or liquid, such as steam or water. Most radioactive materials might escape in the form of aerosols from a nuclear power plant during a severe reactor accident, and it is very important to predict the behavior of these radioactive aerosols in the reactor cooling system and in the containment building under severe accident conditions. Aerosols are designated as very small solid particles or liquid droplets suspended in a gas phase. The suspended solid or liquid particles typically have a range of sizes of 0.01 m to 20 m. Aerosol concentrations in reactor accident analyses are typically less than 100 g/m3 and usually less than 1 g/m3. When there are continuing sources of aerosol to the gas phase or when there are complicated processes involving engineered safety features, much more complicated size distributions develop. It is not uncommon for aerosols in reactor containments to have bimodal size distributions for at least some significant periods of time early during an accident. Salient features of aerosol physics under reactor accident conditions that will affect the nature of the aerosols are (1) the formation of aerosol particles, (2) growth of aerosol particles, (3) shape of aerosol particles. At KAERI, a fission product module has been developed to predict the behaviors of the radioactive materials in the reactor coolant system under severe accident conditions. The fission product module consists of an estimation of the initial inventories, species release from the core, aerosol generation, gas transport, and aerosol transport. The final outcomes of the fission product module designate the radioactive gas and aerosol distribution in the reactor coolant system. The aerosol sedimentation models in the fission product module were validated using ABCOVE and LACE experiments. There were some discrepancies on the predicted
High efficiency filtration of liquid-metal-generated aerosols
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
First, M.W.
1977-01-01
This paper will present data on filter performance for the range of sodium-containing aerorols that can result from large and small releases of hot metallic sodium into confined spaces containing air or special atmospheres and will compare the particle collection effectiveness, space and power requirements, service life, and disposal of the collected materials for the several options. Prompt reduction of in-vessel aerosols with methods that induce rapid coagulation and sedimentation by the application of violent turbulance, sonic energy, or electrostatic attraction; by aerosol scavenging with massive inert dust additions; and by a number of other innovative methods is of special interest because of their potential ability to bring down the aerosol cloud very rapidly and thereby to reduce vessel out-leakage drastically; as well as to relieve the particle load on filters. These methods will be examined as supplements to filtration methods for control of sodium-containing aerosols
Effect of relative humidity on growth of sodium oxide aerosols
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sundarajan, A.R.; Mitragotri, D.S.; Mukunda Rao, S.R.
1982-01-01
Behavior of aerosol resulting from sodium fires in a closed vessel is investigated and the changes in the particle size distribution of the aerosol due to coagulation and humidity have been studied. The initial mass concentration is in the range of 80 -- 500 mg/m 3 and the relative humidity is varied between 50 to 98%. The initial size of the released aerosol is found to be 0.9 μm. Equilibrium diameters of particles growing in humid air have been computed for various humidity levels using water activity of sodium hydroxide. Both theoretical and experimental results have yielded growth ratios of about 3 at about 95% relative humidity. It is recommended that the computer codes dealing with aerosol coagulation behavior in reactor containment should include an appropriate humidity-growth function. (author)
Effect of glutathione aerosol on oxidant-antioxidant imbalance in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.
Borok, Z; Buhl, R; Grimes, G J; Bokser, A D; Hubbard, R C; Holroyd, K J; Roum, J H; Czerski, D B; Cantin, A M; Crystal, R G
1991-07-27
Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is characterised by alveolar inflammation, exaggerated release of oxidants, and subnormal concentrations of the antioxidant glutathione in respiratory epithelial lining fluid (ELF). Glutathione (600 mg twice daily for 3 days) was given by aerosol to 10 patients with IPF. Total ELF glutathione rose transiently, ELF oxidised glutathione concentrations increased, and there was a decrease in spontaneous superoxide anion release by alveolar macrophages. Thus, glutathione by aerosol could be a means of reversing the oxidant-antioxidant imbalance in IPF.
Released radioactivity reducing device
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miyamoto, Yumi.
1995-01-01
A water scrubber is disposed in a scrubber tank and a stainless steel fiber filter is disposed above the water scrubber. The upper end of the scrubber tank is connected by way of a second bent tube to a capturing vessel incorporating a moisture removing layer and an activated carbon filter. The exit of the capturing vessel is connected to a stack. Upon occurrence of an accident of a BWR-type power plant, gases containing radioactive materials released from a reactor container are discharged into the water scrubber from a first bent tube through a venturi tube nozzle, and water soluble and aerosol-like radioactive materials are captured in the water. Aerosol and splashes of water droplets which can not be captured thoroughly by the water scrubber are captured by the stainless steel fiber filter. Gases passing through the scrubber tank are introduced to a capturing vessel through a second bent tube, and organic iodine is captured by the activated carbon filter. (I.N.)
Field characterization of plutonium aerosols in mixed-oxide fuel fabrication
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Newton, G.J.; Teague, S.V.; Yeh, H.C.
1976-01-01
Nuclear reactor fuel pellets of PuO 2 and UO 2 are fabricated within safety enclosures at Babcock and Wilcox's Parker Township Site near Apolla, Pa. Nineteen sample runs were taken from within glove boxes of aerosols formed during powder comminution and blending. Eight sampling runs were also taken of a centerless grinding operation during routine industrial operations. A small seven-stage cascade impactor and the Lovelace Aerosol Particle Separator (LAPS) were used to determine aerodynamic size distribution and gross alpha aerosol concentrations. The potential toxicity of inhaled plutonium originating in the nuclear fuel cycle following accidental releases of these aerosols and possible inhalation by industrial workers is considered
12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics
Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo
2015-01-01
Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...
A Bayesian model for binary Markov chains
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Belkheir Essebbar
2004-02-01
Full Text Available This note is concerned with Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities of a binary Markov chain observed from heterogeneous individuals. The model is founded on the Jeffreys' prior which allows for transition probabilities to be correlated. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC techniques. The performance of the Bayesian estimates is illustrated by analyzing a small simulated data set.
Aerosol effects on UV radiation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koepke, P.; Reuder, J.; Schwander, H.
2000-01-01
The reduction of erythemally weighted UV-irradiance (given as UV index, UVI) due to aerosols is analyzed by variation of the tropospheric particles in a wide, but realistic range. Varied are amount and composition of the particles and relative humidity and thickness of the mixing layer. The reduction of UVI increases with aerosol optical depth and the UV change is around 10% for a change aerosol optical depth from 0.25 to 0.1 and 0.4 respectively. Since both aerosol absorption and scattering are of relevance, the aerosol effect depends besides total aerosol amount on relative amount of soot and on relative humidity
3rd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting
Lanzarone, Ettore; Villalobos, Isadora; Mattei, Alessandra
2017-01-01
This book is a selection of peer-reviewed contributions presented at the third Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM 2016, Florence, Italy, June 19-21. The meeting provided a unique opportunity for young researchers, M.S. students, Ph.D. students, and postdocs dealing with Bayesian statistics to connect with the Bayesian community at large, to exchange ideas, and to network with others working in the same field. The contributions develop and apply Bayesian methods in a variety of fields, ranging from the traditional (e.g., biostatistics and reliability) to the most innovative ones (e.g., big data and networks).
Long-term Aerosol Lidar Measurements At CNR-IMAA
Mona, L.; Amodeo, A.; D'Amico, G.; Pandolfi, M.; Pappalardo, G.
2006-12-01
Actual estimations of the aerosol effect on the radiation budget are affected by a large uncertainties mainly due to the high inhomogeneity and variability of atmospheric aerosol, in terms of concentration, shape, size distribution, refractive index and vertical distribution. Long-term measurements of vertical profiles of aerosol optical properties are needed to reduce these uncertainties. At CNR-IMAA (40° 36'N, 15° 44' E, 760 m above sea level), a lidar system for aerosol study is operative since May 2000 in the framework of EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network). Until August 2005, it provided independent measurements of aerosol extinction and backscatter at 355 nm and aerosol backscatter profiles at 532 nm. After an upgrade of the system, it provides independent measurements of aerosol extinction and backscatter profiles at 355 and 532 nm, and of aerosol backscatter profiles at 1064 nm and depolarization ratio at 532 nm. For these measurements, lidar ratio at 355 and 532 nm and Angstrom exponent profiles at 355/532 nm are also obtained. Starting on May 2000, systematic measurements are performed three times per week according to the EARLINET schedule and further measurements are performed in order to investigate particular events, like dust intrusions, volcanic eruptions and forest fires. A climatological study has been carried out in terms of the seasonal behavior of the PBL height and of the aerosol optical properties calculated inside the PBL itself. In the free troposphere, an high occurrences of Saharan dust intrusions (about 1 day of Saharan dust intrusion every 10 days) has been observed at CNR-IMAA because of the short distance from the Sahara region. During 6 years of observations, very peculiar cases of volcanic aerosol emitted by Etna volcano and aerosol released by large forest fires burning occurred in Alaska and Canada have been observed in the free troposphere at our site. Particular attention is devoted to lidar ratio both for the
Organic aerosols from biomass burning in Amazonian rain forest and their impact onto the environment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cecinato, A.; Mabilia, R.; De Castro Vasconcellos, P.
2001-01-01
A field campaign performed in Southern Brazilian Amazonia in 1993 has proved that this region is subjected to fallout of particulated exhausts released by fires of forestal biomass. In fact, organic content of aerosols collected at urban sites located on the border of pluvial forest, about 50 km from fires, was similar to that of biomass burning exhausts. Aerosol composition is indicative of dolous origin of fires. However, organic contents seems to be influenced by two additional sources, i. e. motor vehicle and high vegetation emission. Chemical pattern of organic aerosols released by biomass burning of forest seems to promote occurrence of photochemical smog episodes in that region [it
Physical metrology of aerosols; Metrologie physique des aerosols
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Boulaud, D.; Vendel, J. [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire
1996-12-31
The various detection and measuring methods for aerosols are presented, and their selection is related to aerosol characteristics (size range, concentration or mass range), thermo-hydraulic conditions (carrier fluid temperature, pressure and flow rate) and to the measuring system conditions (measuring frequency, data collection speed, cost...). Methods based on aerosol dynamic properties (inertial, diffusional and electrical methods) and aerosol optical properties (localized and integral methods) are described and their performances and applications are compared
Methodology for estimating sodium aerosol concentrations during breeder reactor fires
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fields, D.E.; Miller, C.W.
1985-01-01
We have devised and applied a methodology for estimating the concentration of aerosols released at building surfaces and monitored at other building surface points. We have used this methodology to make calculations that suggest, for one air-cooled breeder reactor design, cooling will not be compromised by severe liquid-metal fires
Characterisation of Aerosols from Simulated Radiological Dispersion Events
Di Lemma, F.G.
2015-01-01
The research described in this thesis aims at improving the evaluation of the radiaoctive aerosol release from different Radiological Dispersion Events (RDE's), such as accidents and sabotage involving radioactive and nuclear materials. These studies help in a better assessment of the source term as
Release of fission and activation products during LWR core meltdown
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Albrecht, H.; Matschoss, V.; Wild, H.
1978-01-01
Experiments are described by which activity release fractions and aerosol characteristics were investigated for various core melting conditions. Samples of corium and fissium were heated by induction to temperatures of 2800 0 C under air, argon and steam. Release values are presented for Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Se, Zr, Mo, Cd, Sn, Sb, Te, J, Cs and U. The deposition behaviour of the released products was found to depend strongly on the volatility and on the gas flow rate. Preliminary results of additional measurements indicate that the size distribution of the aerosol particles is trimodal. (author)
The aerosols and the greenhouse effect; Aerosoler og klimaeffekten
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Iversen, Trond; Kirkevaag, Alf; Seland, Oeyvind; Debernard, Jens Boldingh; Kristjansson, Jon Egill; Storelvmo, Trude
2008-07-01
The article discussed the aerosol effects on the climatic changes and points out that the climate models do not incorporate these components satisfactorily mostly due to insufficient knowledge of the aerosol pollution sources. The direct and indirect effects of aerosols are mentioned as well as the climate response (tk)
Bayesian Methods and Universal Darwinism
Campbell, John
2009-12-01
Bayesian methods since the time of Laplace have been understood by their practitioners as closely aligned to the scientific method. Indeed a recent Champion of Bayesian methods, E. T. Jaynes, titled his textbook on the subject Probability Theory: the Logic of Science. Many philosophers of science including Karl Popper and Donald Campbell have interpreted the evolution of Science as a Darwinian process consisting of a `copy with selective retention' algorithm abstracted from Darwin's theory of Natural Selection. Arguments are presented for an isomorphism between Bayesian Methods and Darwinian processes. Universal Darwinism, as the term has been developed by Richard Dawkins, Daniel Dennett and Susan Blackmore, is the collection of scientific theories which explain the creation and evolution of their subject matter as due to the Operation of Darwinian processes. These subject matters span the fields of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences. The principle of Maximum Entropy states that Systems will evolve to states of highest entropy subject to the constraints of scientific law. This principle may be inverted to provide illumination as to the nature of scientific law. Our best cosmological theories suggest the universe contained much less complexity during the period shortly after the Big Bang than it does at present. The scientific subject matter of atomic physics, chemistry, biology and the social sciences has been created since that time. An explanation is proposed for the existence of this subject matter as due to the evolution of constraints in the form of adaptations imposed on Maximum Entropy. It is argued these adaptations were discovered and instantiated through the Operations of a succession of Darwinian processes.
Bayesian phylogeography finds its roots.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Philippe Lemey
2009-09-01
Full Text Available As a key factor in endemic and epidemic dynamics, the geographical distribution of viruses has been frequently interpreted in the light of their genetic histories. Unfortunately, inference of historical dispersal or migration patterns of viruses has mainly been restricted to model-free heuristic approaches that provide little insight into the temporal setting of the spatial dynamics. The introduction of probabilistic models of evolution, however, offers unique opportunities to engage in this statistical endeavor. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, visualization and hypothesis testing of phylogeographic history. By implementing character mapping in a Bayesian software that samples time-scaled phylogenies, we enable the reconstruction of timed viral dispersal patterns while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. Standard Markov model inference is extended with a stochastic search variable selection procedure that identifies the parsimonious descriptions of the diffusion process. In addition, we propose priors that can incorporate geographical sampling distributions or characterize alternative hypotheses about the spatial dynamics. To visualize the spatial and temporal information, we summarize inferences using virtual globe software. We describe how Bayesian phylogeography compares with previous parsimony analysis in the investigation of the influenza A H5N1 origin and H5N1 epidemiological linkage among sampling localities. Analysis of rabies in West African dog populations reveals how virus diffusion may enable endemic maintenance through continuous epidemic cycles. From these analyses, we conclude that our phylogeographic framework will make an important asset in molecular epidemiology that can be easily generalized to infer biogeogeography from genetic data for many organisms.
Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review
Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin
2017-08-01
Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been
Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl
The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....
Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl
2013-01-01
The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....
Numeracy, frequency, and Bayesian reasoning
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gretchen B. Chapman
2009-02-01
Full Text Available Previous research has demonstrated that Bayesian reasoning performance is improved if uncertainty information is presented as natural frequencies rather than single-event probabilities. A questionnaire study of 342 college students replicated this effect but also found that the performance-boosting benefits of the natural frequency presentation occurred primarily for participants who scored high in numeracy. This finding suggests that even comprehension and manipulation of natural frequencies requires a certain threshold of numeracy abilities, and that the beneficial effects of natural frequency presentation may not be as general as previously believed.
Stable generator of polydisperse aerosol
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Mikuška, Pavel
2001-01-01
Roč. 32, Suppl. 1 (2001), s. S823-S824 ISSN 0021-8502. [European Aerosol Conference 2001. Leipzig, 03.09.2001-07.09.2001] R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA4031105 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z4031919 Keywords : aerosol generator * fine aerosol * polydisperse aerosol Subject RIV: CB - Analytical Chemistry, Separation Impact factor: 1.605, year: 2001
Combustion aerosols from potassium-containing fuels
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Balzer Nielsen, Lars
1998-01-01
The scope of the work presented in this thesis is the formation and evolution of aerosol particles in the submicron range during combustion processes, in particular where biomass is used alone or co-fired with coal. An introduction to the formation processes of fly ash in general and submicron aerosol in particular during combustion is presented, along with some known problems related to combustion of biomass for power generation. The work falls in two parts. The first is the design of a laboratory setup for investigation of homogeneous nucleation and particle dynamics at high temperature. The central unit of the setup is a laminar flow aerosol condenser (LFAC), which essentially is a 173 cm long tubular furnace with an externally cooled wall. A mathematical model is presented which describes the formation and evolution of the aerosol in the LFAC, where the rate of formation of new nuclei is calculated using the so-called classical theory. The model includes mass and energy conservation equations and an expression for the description of particle growth by diffusion. The resulting set of nonlinear second-order partial differential equations are solved numerically using the method of orthogonal collocation. The model is implemented in the FORTRAN code MONAERO. The second part of this thesis describes a comprehensive investigation of submicron aerosol formation during co-firing of coal and straw carried out at a 380 MW Th pulverized coal unit at Studstrup Power Plant, Aarhus. Three types of coal are used, and total boiler load and straw input is varied systematically. Straw contains large amounts of potassium, which is released during combustion. Submicron aerosol is sampled between the two banks of the economizer at a flue gas temperature of 350 deg. C using a novel ejector probe. The aerosol is characterized using the SMPS system and a Berner-type low pressure impactor. The chemical composition of the particles collected in the impactor is determined using chemical
Combustion aerosols from potassium-containing fuels
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Balzer Nielsen, Lars
1999-12-31
The scope of the work presented in this thesis is the formation and evolution of aerosol particles in the submicron range during combustion processes, in particular where biomass is used alone or co-fired with coal. An introduction to the formation processes of fly ash in general and submicron aerosol in particular during combustion is presented, along with some known problems related to combustion of biomass for power generation. The work falls in two parts. The first is the design of a laboratory setup for investigation of homogeneous nucleation and particle dynamics at high temperature. The central unit of the setup is a laminar flow aerosol condenser (LFAC), which essentially is a 173 cm long tubular furnace with an externally cooled wall. A mathematical model is presented which describes the formation and evolution of the aerosol in the LFAC, where the rate of formation of new nuclei is calculated using the so-called classical theory. The model includes mass and energy conservation equations and an expression for the description of particle growth by diffusion. The resulting set of nonlinear second-order partial differential equations are solved numerically using the method of orthogonal collocation. The model is implemented in the FORTRAN code MONAERO. The second part of this thesis describes a comprehensive investigation of submicron aerosol formation during co-firing of coal and straw carried out at a 380 MW{sub Th} pulverized coal unit at Studstrup Power Plant, Aarhus. Three types of coal are used, and total boiler load and straw input is varied systematically. Straw contains large amounts of potassium, which is released during combustion. Submicron aerosol is sampled between the two banks of the economizer at a flue gas temperature of 350 deg. C using a novel ejector probe. The aerosol is characterized using the SMPS system and a Berner-type low pressure impactor. The chemical composition of the particles collected in the impactor is determined using
Combustion aerosols from potassium-containing fuels
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Balzer Nielsen, Lars
1998-12-31
The scope of the work presented in this thesis is the formation and evolution of aerosol particles in the submicron range during combustion processes, in particular where biomass is used alone or co-fired with coal. An introduction to the formation processes of fly ash in general and submicron aerosol in particular during combustion is presented, along with some known problems related to combustion of biomass for power generation. The work falls in two parts. The first is the design of a laboratory setup for investigation of homogeneous nucleation and particle dynamics at high temperature. The central unit of the setup is a laminar flow aerosol condenser (LFAC), which essentially is a 173 cm long tubular furnace with an externally cooled wall. A mathematical model is presented which describes the formation and evolution of the aerosol in the LFAC, where the rate of formation of new nuclei is calculated using the so-called classical theory. The model includes mass and energy conservation equations and an expression for the description of particle growth by diffusion. The resulting set of nonlinear second-order partial differential equations are solved numerically using the method of orthogonal collocation. The model is implemented in the FORTRAN code MONAERO. The second part of this thesis describes a comprehensive investigation of submicron aerosol formation during co-firing of coal and straw carried out at a 380 MW{sub Th} pulverized coal unit at Studstrup Power Plant, Aarhus. Three types of coal are used, and total boiler load and straw input is varied systematically. Straw contains large amounts of potassium, which is released during combustion. Submicron aerosol is sampled between the two banks of the economizer at a flue gas temperature of 350 deg. C using a novel ejector probe. The aerosol is characterized using the SMPS system and a Berner-type low pressure impactor. The chemical composition of the particles collected in the impactor is determined using
Bayesian analysis of magnetic island dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Preuss, R.; Maraschek, M.; Zohm, H.; Dose, V.
2003-01-01
We examine a first order differential equation with respect to time used to describe magnetic islands in magnetically confined plasmas. The free parameters of this equation are obtained by employing Bayesian probability theory. Additionally, a typical Bayesian change point is solved in the process of obtaining the data
Learning dynamic Bayesian networks with mixed variables
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard
This paper considers dynamic Bayesian networks for discrete and continuous variables. We only treat the case, where the distribution of the variables is conditional Gaussian. We show how to learn the parameters and structure of a dynamic Bayesian network and also how the Markov order can be learned...
Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment
Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra
2013-01-01
In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…
Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.
J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma
2006-01-01
Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...
Bayesian Decision Theoretical Framework for Clustering
Chen, Mo
2011-01-01
In this thesis, we establish a novel probabilistic framework for the data clustering problem from the perspective of Bayesian decision theory. The Bayesian decision theory view justifies the important questions: what is a cluster and what a clustering algorithm should optimize. We prove that the spectral clustering (to be specific, the…
Robust Bayesian detection of unmodelled bursts
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Searle, Antony C; Sutton, Patrick J; Tinto, Massimo; Woan, Graham
2008-01-01
We develop a Bayesian treatment of the problem of detecting unmodelled gravitational wave bursts using the new global network of interferometric detectors. We also compare this Bayesian treatment with existing coherent methods, and demonstrate that the existing methods make implicit assumptions on the distribution of signals that make them sub-optimal for realistic signal populations
Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists
Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.
2015-01-01
Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models
Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach
Adam, J.; Adamova, D.; Aggarwal, M. M.; Rinella, G. Aglieri; Agnello, M.; Agrawal, N.; Ahammed, Z.; Ahn, S. U.; Aiola, S.; Akindinov, A.; Alam, S. N.; Albuquerque, D. S. D.; Aleksandrov, D.; Alessandro, B.; Alexandre, D.; Alfaro Molina, R.; Alici, A.; Alkin, A.; Almaraz, J. R. M.; Alme, J.; Alt, T.; Altinpinar, S.; Altsybeev, I.; Alves Garcia Prado, C.; Andrei, C.; Andronic, A.; Anguelov, V.; Anticic, T.; Antinori, F.; Antonioli, P.; Aphecetche, L.; Appelshaeuser, H.; Arcelli, S.; Arnaldi, R.; Arnold, O. W.; Arsene, I. C.; Arslandok, M.; Audurier, B.; Augustinus, A.; Averbeck, R.; Azmi, M. D.; Badala, A.; Baek, Y. W.; Bagnasco, S.; Bailhache, R.; Bala, R.; Balasubramanian, S.; Baldisseri, A.; Baral, R. C.; Barbano, A. M.; Barbera, R.; Barile, F.; Barnafoeldi, G. G.; Barnby, L. S.; Barret, V.; Bartalini, P.; Barth, K.; Bartke, J.; Bartsch, E.; Basile, M.; Bastid, N.; Bathen, B.; Batigne, G.; Camejo, A. Batista; Batyunya, B.; Batzing, P. C.; Bearden, I. G.; Beck, H.; Bedda, C.; Behera, N. K.; Belikov, I.; Bellini, F.; Bello Martinez, H.; Bellwied, R.; Belmont, R.; Belmont-Moreno, E.; Belyaev, V.; Benacek, P.; Bencedi, G.; Beole, S.; Berceanu, I.; Bercuci, A.; Berdnikov, Y.; Berenyi, D.; Bertens, R. A.; Berzano, D.; Betev, L.; Bhasin, A.; Bhat, I. R.; Bhati, A. K.; Bhattacharjee, B.; Bhom, J.; Bianchi, L.; Bianchi, N.; Bianchin, C.; Bielcik, J.; Bielcikova, J.; Bilandzic, A.; Biro, G.; Biswas, R.; Biswas, S.; Bjelogrlic, S.; Blair, J. T.; Blau, D.; Blume, C.; Bock, F.; Bogdanov, A.; Boggild, H.; Boldizsar, L.; Bombara, M.; Book, J.; Borel, H.; Borissov, A.; Borri, M.; Bossu, F.; Botta, E.; Bourjau, C.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Bregant, M.; Breitner, T.; Broker, T. A.; Browning, T. A.; Broz, M.; Brucken, E. J.; Bruna, E.; Bruno, G. E.; Budnikov, D.; Buesching, H.; Bufalino, S.; Buncic, P.; Busch, O.; Buthelezi, Z.; Butt, J. B.; Buxton, J. T.; Cabala, J.; Caffarri, D.; Cai, X.; Caines, H.; Diaz, L. Calero; Caliva, A.; Calvo Villar, E.; Camerini, P.; Carena, F.; Carena, W.; Carnesecchi, F.; Castellanos, J. Castillo; Castro, A. J.; Casula, E. A. R.; Sanchez, C. Ceballos; Cepila, J.; Cerello, P.; Cerkala, J.; Chang, B.; Chapeland, S.; Chartier, M.; Charvet, J. L.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chauvin, A.; Chelnokov, V.; Cherney, M.; Cheshkov, C.; Cheynis, B.; Barroso, V. Chibante; Chinellato, D. D.; Cho, S.; Chochula, P.; Choi, K.; Chojnacki, M.; Choudhury, S.; Christakoglou, P.; Christensen, C. H.; Christiansen, P.; Chujo, T.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Cleymans, J.; Colamaria, F.; Colella, D.; Collu, A.; Colocci, M.; Balbastre, G. Conesa; del Valle, Z. Conesa; Connors, M. E.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormier, T. M.; Morales, Y. Corrales; Cortes Maldonado, I.; Cortese, P.; Cosentino, M. R.; Costa, F.; Crochet, P.; Cruz Albino, R.; Cuautle, E.; Cunqueiro, L.; Dahms, T.; Dainese, A.; Danisch, M. C.; Danu, A.; Das, I.; Das, S.; Dash, A.; Dash, S.; De, S.; De Caro, A.; de Cataldo, G.; de Conti, C.; de Cuveland, J.; De Falco, A.; De Gruttola, D.; De Marco, N.; De Pasquale, S.; Deisting, A.; Deloff, A.; Denes, E.; Deplano, C.; Dhankher, P.; Di Bari, D.; Di Mauro, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Corchero, M. A. Diaz; Dietel, T.; Dillenseger, P.; Divia, R.; Djuvsland, O.; Dobrin, A.; Gimenez, D. Domenicis; Doenigus, B.; Dordic, O.; Drozhzhova, T.; Dubey, A. K.; Dubla, A.; Ducroux, L.; Dupieux, P.; Ehlers, R. J.; Elia, D.; Endress, E.; Engel, H.; Epple, E.; Erazmus, B.; Erdemir, I.; Erhardt, F.; Espagnon, B.; Estienne, M.; Esumi, S.; Eum, J.; Evans, D.; Evdokimov, S.; Eyyubova, G.; Fabbietti, L.; Fabris, D.; Faivre, J.; Fantoni, A.; Fasel, M.; Feldkamp, L.; Feliciello, A.; Feofilov, G.; Ferencei, J.; Fernandez Tellez, A.; Ferreiro, E. G.; Ferretti, A.; Festanti, A.; Feuillard, V. J. G.; Figiel, J.; Figueredo, M. A. S.; Filchagin, S.; Finogeev, D.; Fionda, F. M.; Fiore, E. M.; Fleck, M. G.; Floris, M.; Foertsch, S.; Foka, P.; Fokin, S.; Fragiacomo, E.; Francescon, A.; Frankenfeld, U.; Fronze, G. G.; Fuchs, U.; Furget, C.; Furs, A.; Girard, M. Fusco; Gaardhoje, J. J.; Gagliardi, M.; Gago, A. M.; Gallio, M.; Gangadharan, D. R.; Ganoti, P.; Gao, C.; Garabatos, C.; Garcia-Solis, E.; Gargiulo, C.; Gasik, P.; Gauger, E. F.; Germain, M.; Gheata, A.; Gheata, M.; Gianotti, P.; Giubellino, P.; Giubilato, P.; Gladysz-Dziadus, E.; Glaessel, P.; Gomez Coral, D. M.; Ramirez, A. Gomez; Gonzalez, A. S.; Gonzalez, V.; Gonzalez-Zamora, P.; Gorbunov, S.; Goerlich, L.; Gotovac, S.; Grabski, V.; Grachov, O. A.; Graczykowski, L. K.; Graham, K. L.; Grelli, A.; Grigoras, A.; Grigoras, C.; Grigoriev, V.; Grigoryan, A.; Grigoryan, S.; Grinyov, B.; Grion, N.; Gronefeld, J. M.; Grosse-Oetringhaus, J. F.; Grosso, R.; Guber, F.; Guernane, R.; Guerzoni, B.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gunji, T.; Gupta, A.; Haake, R.; Haaland, O.; Hadjidakis, C.; Haiduc, M.; Hamagaki, H.; Hamar, G.; Hamon, J. C.; Harris, J. W.; Harton, A.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hayashi, S.; Heckel, S. T.; Hellbaer, E.; Helstrup, H.; Herghelegiu, A.; Herrera Corral, G.; Hess, B. A.; Hetland, K. F.; Hillemanns, H.; Hippolyte, B.; Horak, D.; Hosokawa, R.; Hristov, P.; Humanic, T. J.; Hussain, N.; Hussain, T.; Hutter, D.; Hwang, D. S.; Ilkaev, R.; Inaba, M.; Incani, E.; Ippolitov, M.; Irfan, M.; Ivanov, M.; Ivanov, V.; Izucheev, V.; Jacazio, N.; Jadhav, M. B.; Jadlovska, S.; Jadlovsky, J.; Jahnke, C.; Jakubowska, M. J.; Jang, H. J.; Janik, M. A.; Jayarathna, P. H. S. Y.; Jena, C.; Jena, S.; Bustamante, R. T. Jimenez; Jones, P. G.; Jusko, A.; Kalinak, P.; Kalweit, A.; Kamin, J.; Kaplin, V.; Kar, S.; Uysal, A. Karasu; Karavichev, O.; Karavicheva, T.; Karayan, L.; Karpechev, E.; Kebschull, U.; Keidel, R.; Keijdener, D. L. D.; Keil, M.; Khan, M. Mohisin; Khan, P.; Khan, S. A.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kharlov, Y.; Kileng, B.; Kim, D. W.; Kim, D. J.; Kim, D.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, M.; Kim, T.; Kirsch, S.; Kisel, I.; Kiselev, S.; Kisiel, A.; Kiss, G.; Klay, J. L.; Klein, C.; Klein-Boesing, C.; Klewin, S.; Kluge, A.; Knichel, M. L.; Knospe, A. G.; Kobdaj, C.; Kofarago, M.; Kollegger, T.; Kolojvari, A.; Kondratiev, V.; Kondratyeva, N.; Kondratyuk, E.; Konevskikh, A.; Kopcik, M.; Kostarakis, P.; Kour, M.; Kouzinopoulos, C.; Kovalenko, O.; Kovalenko, V.; Kowalski, M.; Meethaleveedu, G. Koyithatta; Kralik, I.; Kravcakova, A.; Krivda, M.; Krizek, F.; Kryshen, E.; Krzewicki, M.; Kubera, A. M.; Kucera, V.; Kuijer, P. G.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kumar, S.; Kurashvili, P.; Kurepin, A.; Kurepin, A. B.; Kuryakin, A.; Kweon, M. J.; Kwon, Y.; La Pointe, S. L.; La Rocca, P.; Ladron de Guevara, P.; Lagana Fernandes, C.; Lakomov, I.; Langoy, R.; Lara, C.; Lardeux, A.; Lattuca, A.; Laudi, E.; Lea, R.; Leardini, L.; Lee, G. R.; Lee, S.; Lehas, F.; Lemmon, R. C.; Lenti, V.; Leogrande, E.; Monzon, I. Leon; Leon Vargas, H.; Leoncino, M.; Levai, P.; Lien, J.; Lietava, R.; Lindal, S.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lippmann, C.; Lisa, M. A.; Ljunggren, H. M.; Lodato, D. F.; Loenne, P. I.; Loginov, V.; Loizides, C.; Lopez, X.; Torres, E. Lopez; Lowe, A.; Luettig, P.; Lunardon, M.; Luparello, G.; Lutz, T. H.; Maevskaya, A.; Mager, M.; Mahajan, S.; Mahmood, S. M.; Maire, A.; Majka, R. D.; Malaev, M.; Maldonado Cervantes, I.; Malinina, L.; Mal'Kevich, D.; Malzacher, P.; Mamonov, A.; Manko, V.; Manso, F.; Manzari, V.; Marchisone, M.; Mares, J.; Margagliotti, G. V.; Margotti, A.; Margutti, J.; Marin, A.; Markert, C.; Marquard, M.; Martin, N. A.; Blanco, J. Martin; Martinengo, P.; Martinez, M. I.; Garcia, G. Martinez; Pedreira, M. Martinez; Mas, A.; Masciocchi, S.; Masera, M.; Masoni, A.; Mastroserio, A.; Matyja, A.; Mayer, C.; Mazer, J.; Mazzoni, M. A.; Mcdonald, D.; Meddi, F.; Melikyan, Y.; Menchaca-Rocha, A.; Meninno, E.; Perez, J. Mercado; Meres, M.; Miake, Y.; Mieskolainen, M. M.; Mikhaylov, K.; Milano, L.; Milosevic, J.; Mischke, A.; Mishra, A. N.; Miskowiec, D.; Mitra, J.; Mitu, C. M.; Mohammadi, N.; Mohanty, B.; Molnar, L.; Montano Zetina, L.; Montes, E.; De Godoy, D. A. Moreira; Moreno, L. A. P.; Moretto, S.; Morreale, A.; Morsch, A.; Muccifora, V.; Mudnic, E.; Muehlheim, D.; Muhuri, S.; Mukherjee, M.; Mulligan, J. D.; Munhoz, M. G.; Munzer, R. H.; Murakami, H.; Murray, S.; Musa, L.; Musinsky, J.; Naik, B.; Nair, R.; Nandi, B. K.; Nania, R.; Nappi, E.; Naru, M. U.; Natal da Luz, H.; Nattrass, C.; Navarro, S. R.; Nayak, K.; Nayak, R.; Nayak, T. K.; Nazarenko, S.; Nedosekin, A.; Nellen, L.; Ng, F.; Nicassio, M.; Niculescu, M.; Niedziela, J.; Nielsen, B. S.; Nikolaev, S.; Nikulin, S.; Nikulin, V.; Noferini, F.; Nomokonov, P.; Nooren, G.; Noris, J. C. C.; Norman, J.; Nyanin, A.; Nystrand, J.; Oeschler, H.; Oh, S.; Oh, S. K.; Ohlson, A.; Okatan, A.; Okubo, T.; Olah, L.; Oleniacz, J.; Oliveira Da Silva, A. C.; Oliver, M. H.; Onderwaater, J.; Oppedisano, C.; Orava, R.; Oravec, M.; Ortiz Velasquez, A.; Oskarsson, A.; Otwinowski, J.; Oyama, K.; Ozdemir, M.; Pachmayer, Y.; Pagano, D.; Pagano, P.; Paic, G.; Pal, S. K.; Pan, J.; Papikyan, V.; Pappalardo, G. S.; Pareek, P.; Park, W. J.; Parmar, S.; Passfeld, A.; Paticchio, V.; Patra, R. N.; Paul, B.; Pei, H.; Peitzmann, T.; Da Costa, H. Pereira; Peresunko, D.; Lara, C. E. Perez; Lezama, E. Perez; Peskov, V.; Pestov, Y.; Petracek, V.; Petrov, V.; Petrovici, M.; Petta, C.; Piano, S.; Pikna, M.; Pillot, P.; Pimentel, L. O. D. L.; Pinazza, O.; Pinsky, L.; Piyarathna, D. B.; Ploskon, M.; Planinic, M.; Pluta, J.; Pochybova, S.; Podesta-Lerma, P. L. M.; Poghosyan, M. G.; Polichtchouk, B.; Poljak, N.; Poonsawat, W.; Pop, A.; Porteboeuf-Houssais, S.; Porter, J.; Pospisil, J.; Prasad, S. K.; Preghenella, R.; Prino, F.; Pruneau, C. A.; Pshenichnov, I.; Puccio, M.; Puddu, G.; Pujahari, P.; Punin, V.; Putschke, J.; Qvigstad, H.; Rachevski, A.; Raha, S.; Rajput, S.; Rak, J.; Rakotozafindrabe, A.; Ramello, L.; Rami, F.; Raniwala, R.; Raniwala, S.; Raesaenen, S. S.; Rascanu, B. T.; Rathee, D.; Read, K. F.; Redlich, K.; Reed, R. J.; Reichelt, P.; Reidt, F.; Ren, X.; Renfordt, R.; Reolon, A. R.; Reshetin, A.; Reygers, K.; Riabov, V.; Ricci, R. A.; Richert, T.; Richter, M.; Riedler, P.; Riegler, W.; Riggi, F.; Ristea, C.; Rocco, E.; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, M.; Manso, A. Rodriguez; Roed, K.; Rogochaya, E.; Rohr, D.; Roehrich, D.; Ronchetti, F.; Ronflette, L.; Rosnet, P.; Rossi, A.; Roukoutakis, F.; Roy, A.; Roy, C.; Roy, P.; Montero, A. J. Rubio; Rui, R.; Russo, R.; Ryabinkin, E.; Ryabov, Y.; Rybicki, A.; Saarinen, S.; Sadhu, S.; Sadovsky, S.; Safarik, K.; Sahlmuller, B.; Sahoo, P.; Sahoo, R.; Sahoo, S.; Sahu, P. K.; Saini, J.; Sakai, S.; Saleh, M. A.; Salzwedel, J.; Sambyal, S.; Samsonov, V.; Sandor, L.; Sandoval, A.; Sano, M.; Sarkar, D.; Sarkar, N.; Sarma, P.; Scapparone, E.; Scarlassara, F.; Schiaua, C.; Schicker, R.; Schmidt, C.; Schmidt, H. R.; Schuchmann, S.; Schukraft, J.; Schulc, M.; Schutz, Y.; Schwarz, K.; Schweda, K.; Scioli, G.; Scomparin, E.; Scott, R.; Sefcik, M.; Seger, J. E.; Sekiguchi, Y.; Sekihata, D.; Selyuzhenkov, I.; Senosi, K.; Senyukov, S.; Serradilla, E.; Sevcenco, A.; Shabanov, A.; Shabetai, A.; Shadura, O.; Shahoyan, R.; Shahzad, M. I.; Shangaraev, A.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, N.; Sheikh, A. I.; Shigaki, K.; Shou, Q.; Shtejer, K.; Sibiriak, Y.; Siddhanta, S.; Sielewicz, K. M.; Siemiarczuk, T.; Silvermyr, D.; Silvestre, C.; Simatovic, G.; Simonetti, G.; Singaraju, R.; Singh, R.; Singha, S.; Singhal, V.; Sinha, B. C.; Sinha, T.; Sitar, B.; Sitta, M.; Skaali, T. B.; Slupecki, M.; Smirnov, N.; Snellings, R. J. M.; Snellman, T. W.; Song, J.; Song, M.; Song, Z.; Soramel, F.; Sorensen, S.; de Souza, R. D.; Sozzi, F.; Spacek, M.; Spiriti, E.; Sputowska, I.; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, M.; Stachel, J.; Stan, I.; Stankus, P.; Stenlund, E.; Steyn, G.; Stiller, J. H.; Stocco, D.; Strmen, P.; Suaide, A. A. P.; Sugitate, T.; Suire, C.; Suleymanov, M.; Suljic, M.; Sultanov, R.; Sumbera, M.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Szabo, A.; Szanto de Toledo, A.; Szarka, I.; Szczepankiewicz, A.; Szymanski, M.; Tabassam, U.; Takahashi, J.; Tambave, G. J.; Tanaka, N.; Tarhini, M.; Tariq, M.; Tarzila, M. G.; Tauro, A.; Tejeda Munoz, G.; Telesca, A.; Terasaki, K.; Terrevoli, C.; Teyssier, B.; Thaeder, J.; Thakur, D.; Thomas, D.; Tieulent, R.; Timmins, A. R.; Toia, A.; Trogolo, S.; Trombetta, G.; Trubnikov, V.; Trzaska, W. H.; Tsuji, T.; Tumkin, A.; Turrisi, R.; Tveter, T. S.; Ullaland, K.; Uras, A.; Usai, G. L.; Utrobicic, A.; Vala, M.; Palomo, L. Valencia; Vallero, S.; Van Der Maarel, J.; Van Hoorne, J. W.; van Leeuwen, M.; Vanat, T.; Vyvre, P. Vande; Varga, D.; Vargas, A.; Vargyas, M.; Varma, R.; Vasileiou, M.; Vasiliev, A.; Vauthier, A.; Vechernin, V.; Veen, A. M.; Veldhoen, M.; Velure, A.; Vercellin, E.; Vergara Limon, S.; Vernet, R.; Verweij, M.; Vickovic, L.; Viesti, G.; Viinikainen, J.; Vilakazi, Z.; Baillie, O. Villalobos; Villatoro Tello, A.; Vinogradov, A.; Vinogradov, L.; Vinogradov, Y.; Virgili, T.; Vislavicius, V.; Viyogi, Y. P.; Vodopyanov, A.; Voelkl, M. A.; Voloshin, K.; Voloshin, S. A.; Volpe, G.; von Haller, B.; Vorobyev, I.; Vranic, D.; Vrlakova, J.; Vulpescu, B.; Wagner, B.; Wagner, J.; Wang, H.; Watanabe, D.; Watanabe, Y.; Weiser, D. F.; Westerhoff, U.; Whitehead, A. M.; Wiechula, J.; Wikne, J.; Wilk, G.; Wilkinson, J.; Williams, M. C. S.; Windelband, B.; Winn, M.; Yang, H.; Yano, S.; Yasin, Z.; Yokoyama, H.; Yoo, I. -K.; Yoon, J. H.; Yurchenko, V.; Yushmanov, I.; Zaborowska, A.; Zaccolo, V.; Zaman, A.; Zampolli, C.; Zanoli, H. J. C.; Zaporozhets, S.; Zardoshti, N.; Zarochentsev, A.; Zavada, P.; Zaviyalov, N.; Zbroszczyk, H.; Zgura, I. S.; Zhalov, M.; Zhang, C.; Zhao, C.; Zhigareva, N.; Zhou, Y.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, H.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, A.; Zimmermann, M. B.; Zinovjev, G.; Zyzak, M.
2016-01-01
We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian
Advances in Bayesian Modeling in Educational Research
Levy, Roy
2016-01-01
In this article, I provide a conceptually oriented overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference and contrast them with frequentist approaches that currently dominate conventional practice in educational research. The features and advantages of Bayesian approaches are illustrated with examples spanning several statistical modeling…
Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark
2006-01-01
We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...
Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan
2004-01-01
We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...
Fission-product release during accidents
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hunt, C.E.L.; Cox, D.S.
1991-09-01
One of the aims when managing a reactor accident is to minimize the release of radioactive fission products. Release is dependent not only on the temperature, but also on the partial pressure of oxygen. Strongly oxidizing atmospheres, such as those that occurred during the Chernobyl accident, released semi-volatile elements like ruthenium, which has volatile oxides. At low temperatures, UO 2 oxidization to U 3 O 8 can result in extensive breakup of the fuel, resulting in the release of non-volatile fission products as aerosols. Under less oxidizing conditions, when hydrogen accumulates from the zirconium-water reaction, the resulting low oxygen partial pressure can significantly reduce these reactions. At TMI-2, only the noble gases and volatile fission products were released in significant quantities. A knowledge of the effect of atmosphere as well as temperature on the release of fission products from damaged reactor cores is therefore a useful, if not necessary, component of information required for accident management
BELM: Bayesian extreme learning machine.
Soria-Olivas, Emilio; Gómez-Sanchis, Juan; Martín, José D; Vila-Francés, Joan; Martínez, Marcelino; Magdalena, José R; Serrano, Antonio J
2011-03-01
The theory of extreme learning machine (ELM) has become very popular on the last few years. ELM is a new approach for learning the parameters of the hidden layers of a multilayer neural network (as the multilayer perceptron or the radial basis function neural network). Its main advantage is the lower computational cost, which is especially relevant when dealing with many patterns defined in a high-dimensional space. This brief proposes a bayesian approach to ELM, which presents some advantages over other approaches: it allows the introduction of a priori knowledge; obtains the confidence intervals (CIs) without the need of applying methods that are computationally intensive, e.g., bootstrap; and presents high generalization capabilities. Bayesian ELM is benchmarked against classical ELM in several artificial and real datasets that are widely used for the evaluation of machine learning algorithms. Achieved results show that the proposed approach produces a competitive accuracy with some additional advantages, namely, automatic production of CIs, reduction of probability of model overfitting, and use of a priori knowledge.
BAYESIAN BICLUSTERING FOR PATIENT STRATIFICATION.
Khakabimamaghani, Sahand; Ester, Martin
2016-01-01
The move from Empirical Medicine towards Personalized Medicine has attracted attention to Stratified Medicine (SM). Some methods are provided in the literature for patient stratification, which is the central task of SM, however, there are still significant open issues. First, it is still unclear if integrating different datatypes will help in detecting disease subtypes more accurately, and, if not, which datatype(s) are most useful for this task. Second, it is not clear how we can compare different methods of patient stratification. Third, as most of the proposed stratification methods are deterministic, there is a need for investigating the potential benefits of applying probabilistic methods. To address these issues, we introduce a novel integrative Bayesian biclustering method, called B2PS, for patient stratification and propose methods for evaluating the results. Our experimental results demonstrate the superiority of B2PS over a popular state-of-the-art method and the benefits of Bayesian approaches. Our results agree with the intuition that transcriptomic data forms a better basis for patient stratification than genomic data.
Bayesian Nonparametric Longitudinal Data Analysis.
Quintana, Fernando A; Johnson, Wesley O; Waetjen, Elaine; Gold, Ellen
2016-01-01
Practical Bayesian nonparametric methods have been developed across a wide variety of contexts. Here, we develop a novel statistical model that generalizes standard mixed models for longitudinal data that include flexible mean functions as well as combined compound symmetry (CS) and autoregressive (AR) covariance structures. AR structure is often specified through the use of a Gaussian process (GP) with covariance functions that allow longitudinal data to be more correlated if they are observed closer in time than if they are observed farther apart. We allow for AR structure by considering a broader class of models that incorporates a Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) over the covariance parameters of the GP. We are able to take advantage of modern Bayesian statistical methods in making full predictive inferences and about characteristics of longitudinal profiles and their differences across covariate combinations. We also take advantage of the generality of our model, which provides for estimation of a variety of covariance structures. We observe that models that fail to incorporate CS or AR structure can result in very poor estimation of a covariance or correlation matrix. In our illustration using hormone data observed on women through the menopausal transition, biology dictates the use of a generalized family of sigmoid functions as a model for time trends across subpopulation categories.
Aerosols, clouds and radiation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Twomey, S [University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (USA). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics
1991-01-01
Most of the so-called 'CO{sub 2} effect' is, in fact, an 'H{sub 2}O effect' brought into play by the climate modeler's assumption that planetary average temperature dictates water-vapor concentration (following Clapeyron-Clausius). That assumption ignores the removal process, which cloud physicists know to be influenced by the aerosol, since the latter primarily controls cloud droplet number and size. Droplet number and size are also influential for shortwave (solar) energy. The reflectance of many thin to moderately thick clouds changes when nuclei concentrations change and make shortwave albedo susceptible to aerosol influence.
A stratospheric aerosol increase
Rosen, J. M.; Hofmann, D. J.
1980-01-01
Large disturbances were noted in the stratospheric aerosol content in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere commencing about 7 months after the eruption of La Soufriere and less than 1 month after the eruption of Sierra Negra. The aerosol was characterized by a very steep size distribution in the 0.15 to 0.25 micron radius range and contained a volatile component. Measurements near the equator and at the South Pole indicate that the disturbance was widespread. These observations were made before the May 18 eruption of Mt. St. Helens.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Planinic, J.; Radolic, V.; Faj, Z.; Vukovic, B.
2000-01-01
The equilibrium factor value (F) was measured in the NRPB radon chamber and the corresponding track density ratio (r = D/D 0 ) of bare (D) and diffusion (D 0 ) LR-115 nuclear track detectors was determined, as well as the regression equation F(r). Experiments with LR-115 nuclear track detectors and aerosol sources (burning candle and cigarette) were carried out in the Osijek University radon chamber and afterwards an empirical relationship between the equilibrium factor and aerosol concentration was derived. For the purpose of radon dose equivalent assessment, procedures for determining the unattached fraction of radon progeny were introduced using two nuclear track detectors. (author)
Stratospheric Aerosol Measurements
Pueschel, Rudolf, F.; Gore, Warren J. (Technical Monitor)
1998-01-01
Stratospheric aerosols affect the atmospheric energy balance by scattering and absorbing solar and terrestrial radiation. They also can alter stratospheric chemical cycles by catalyzing heterogeneous reactions which markedly perturb odd nitrogen, chlorine and ozone levels. Aerosol measurements by satellites began in NASA in 1975 with the Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) program, to be followed by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) starting in 1979. Both programs employ the solar occultation, or Earth limb extinction, techniques. Major results of these activities include the discovery of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) in both hemispheres in winter, illustrations of the impacts of major (El Chichon 1982 and Pinatubo 1991) eruptions, and detection of a negative global trend in lower stratospheric/upper tropospheric aerosol extinction. This latter result can be considered a triumph of successful worldwide sulfur emission controls. The SAGE record will be continued and improved by SAGE III, currently scheduled for multiple launches beginning in 2000 as part of the Earth Observing System (EOS). The satellite program has been supplemented by in situ measurements aboard the ER-2 (20 km ceiling) since 1974, and from the DC-8 (13 km ceiling) aircraft beginning in 1989. Collection by wire impactors and subsequent electron microscopic and X-ray energy-dispersive analyses, and optical particle spectrometry have been the principle techniques. Major findings are: (1) The stratospheric background aerosol consists of dilute sulfuric acid droplets of around 0.1 micrometer modal diameter at concentration of tens to hundreds of monograms per cubic meter; (2) Soot from aircraft amounts to a fraction of one percent of the background total aerosol; (3) Volcanic eruptions perturb the sulfuric acid, but not the soot, aerosol abundance by several orders of magnitude; (4) PSCs contain nitric acid at temperatures below 195K, supporting chemical hypotheses
2nd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting
Bitto, Angela; Kastner, Gregor; Posekany, Alexandra
2015-01-01
The Second Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (BAYSM 2014) and the research presented here facilitate connections among researchers using Bayesian Statistics by providing a forum for the development and exchange of ideas. WU Vienna University of Business and Economics hosted BAYSM 2014 from September 18th to 19th. The guidance of renowned plenary lecturers and senior discussants is a critical part of the meeting and this volume, which follows publication of contributions from BAYSM 2013. The meeting's scientific program reflected the variety of fields in which Bayesian methods are currently employed or could be introduced in the future. Three brilliant keynote lectures by Chris Holmes (University of Oxford), Christian Robert (Université Paris-Dauphine), and Mike West (Duke University), were complemented by 24 plenary talks covering the major topics Dynamic Models, Applications, Bayesian Nonparametrics, Biostatistics, Bayesian Methods in Economics, and Models and Methods, as well as a lively poster session ...
Bayesian natural language semantics and pragmatics
Zeevat, Henk
2015-01-01
The contributions in this volume focus on the Bayesian interpretation of natural languages, which is widely used in areas of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and computational linguistics. This is the first volume to take up topics in Bayesian Natural Language Interpretation and make proposals based on information theory, probability theory, and related fields. The methodologies offered here extend to the target semantic and pragmatic analyses of computational natural language interpretation. Bayesian approaches to natural language semantics and pragmatics are based on methods from signal processing and the causal Bayesian models pioneered by especially Pearl. In signal processing, the Bayesian method finds the most probable interpretation by finding the one that maximizes the product of the prior probability and the likelihood of the interpretation. It thus stresses the importance of a production model for interpretation as in Grice's contributions to pragmatics or in interpretation by abduction.
Aerosols behavior inside a PWR during an accident
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hervouet, C.
1983-01-01
During very hypothetical accidents occurring in a pressurized water ractor, radioactive aerosols can be released, during core-melt, inside the reactor containment building. A good knowledge of their behavior in the humid containment atmosphere (mass concentration and size distribution) is essential in order to evaluate their harmfulness in case of environment contamination and to design possible filtration devices. Accordingly the Safety Analysis Department of the Atomic Energy Commission uses several computer models, describing the particle formation (BOIL/MARCH), then behavior in the primary circuits (TRAP-MELT), and in the reactor containment building (AEROSOLS-PARFDISEKO-III B). On the one hand, these models have been improved, in particular the one related to the aerosol formation (nature and mass of released particles) using recent experimental results. On the other hand, sensitivity analyses have been performed with the AEROSOLS code which emphasize the particle coagulation parameters: agglomerate shape factors and collision efficiency. Finally, the different computer models have been applied to the study of aerosol behavior during a 900 MWe PWR accident: loss-of-coolant-accident (small break with failure of all safety systems) [fr
Atmospheric aerosol system: An overview
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Prospero, J.M.; Charlson, R.J.; Mohnen, V.; Jaenicke, R.; Delany, A.C.; Moyers, J.; Zoller, W.; Rahn, K.
1983-01-01
Aerosols could play a critical role in many processes which impact on our lives either indirectly (e.g., climate) or directly (e.g., health). However, our ability to assess these possible impacts is constrained by our limited knowledge of the physical and chemical properties of aerosols, both anthropogenic and natural. This deficiency is attributable in part to the fact that aerosols are the end product of a vast array of chemical and physical processes. Consequently, the properties of the aerosol can exhibit a great deal of variability in both time and space. Furthermore, most aerosol studies have focused on measurements of a single aerosol characteristic such as composition or size distribution. Such information is generally not useful for the assessment of impacts because the degree of impact may depend on the integral properties of the aerosol, for example, the aerosol composition as a function of particle size. In this overview we discuss recent work on atmospheric aerosols that illustrates the complex nature of the aerosol chemical and physical system, and we suggest strategies for future research. A major conclusion is that man has had a great impact on the global budgets of certain species, especially sulfur and nitrogen, that play a dominant role in the atmospheric aerosol system. These changes could conceivably affect climate. Large-scale impacts are implied because it has recently been demonstrated that natural and pollutant aerosol episodes can be propagated over great distances. However, at present there is no evidence linking anthropogenic activities with a persistent increase in aerosol concentrations on a global scale. A major problem in assessing man's impact on the atmospheric aerosol system and on global budgets is the absence of aerosol measurements in remote marine and continental areas
Dry season aerosol iron solubility in tropical northern Australia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
V. H. L. Winton
2016-10-01
Full Text Available Marine nitrogen fixation is co-limited by the supply of iron (Fe and phosphorus in large regions of the global ocean. The deposition of soluble aerosol Fe can initiate nitrogen fixation and trigger toxic algal blooms in nitrate-poor tropical waters. We present dry season soluble Fe data from the Savannah Fires in the Early Dry Season (SAFIRED campaign in northern Australia that reflects coincident dust and biomass burning sources of soluble aerosol Fe. The mean soluble and total aerosol Fe concentrations were 40 and 500 ng m−3 respectively. Our results show that while biomass burning species may not be a direct source of soluble Fe, biomass burning may substantially enhance the solubility of mineral dust. We observed fractional Fe solubility up to 12 % in mixed aerosols. Thus, Fe in dust may be more soluble in the tropics compared to higher latitudes due to higher concentrations of biomass-burning-derived reactive organic species in the atmosphere. In addition, biomass-burning-derived particles can act as a surface for aerosol Fe to bind during atmospheric transport and subsequently be released to the ocean upon deposition. As the aerosol loading is dominated by biomass burning emissions over the tropical waters in the dry season, additions of biomass-burning-derived soluble Fe could have harmful consequences for initiating nitrogen-fixing toxic algal blooms. Future research is required to quantify biomass-burning-derived particle sources of soluble Fe over tropical waters.
GRIP LANGLEY AEROSOL RESEARCH GROUP EXPERIMENT (LARGE) V1
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Langley Aerosol Research Group Experiment (LARGE) measures ultrafine aerosol number density, total and non-volatile aerosol number density, dry aerosol size...
MODIS 3km Aerosol Product: Algorithm and Global Perspective
Remer, L. A.; Mattoo, S.; Levy, R. C.; Munchak, L.
2013-01-01
After more than a decade of producing a nominal 10 km aerosol product based on the dark target method, the MODIS aerosol team will be releasing a nominal 3 km product as part of their Collection 6 release. The new product differs from the original 10 km product only in the manner in which reflectance pixels are ingested, organized and selected by the aerosol algorithm. Overall, the 3 km product closely mirrors the 10 km product. However, the finer resolution product is able to retrieve over ocean closer to islands and coastlines, and is better able to resolve fine aerosol features such as smoke plumes over both ocean and land. In some situations, it provides retrievals over entire regions that the 10 km product barely samples. In situations traditionally difficult for the dark target algorithm, such as over bright or urban surfaces the 3 km product introduces isolated spikes of artificially high aerosol optical depth (AOD) that the 10 km algorithm avoids. Over land, globally, the 3 km product appears to be 0.01 to 0.02 higher than the 10 km product, while over ocean, the 3 km algorithm is retrieving a proportionally greater number of very low aerosol loading situations. Based on collocations with ground-based observations for only six months, expected errors associated with the 3 km land product are determined to be greater than for the 10 km product: 0.05 0.25 AOD. Over ocean, the suggestion is for expected errors to be the same as the 10 km product: 0.03 0.05 AOD. The advantage of the product is on the local scale, which will require continued evaluation not addressed here. Nevertheless, the new 3 km product is expected to provide important information complementary to existing satellite-derived products and become an important tool for the aerosol community.
Aerosol studies with Listeria innocua and Listeria monocytogenes.
Zhang, Guodong; Ma, Li; Oyarzabal, Omar A; Doyle, Michael P
2007-08-01
Aerosol studies of Listeria monocytogenes in food processing plants have been limited by lack of a suitable surrogate microorganism. The objective of this study was to investigate the potential of using green fluorescent protein-labeled strains of Listeria innocua as a surrogate for L. monocytogenes for aerosol studies. These studies were conducted in a laboratory bioaerosol chamber and a pilot food-processing facility. Four strains of L. innocua and five strains of L. monocytogenes were used. In the laboratory chamber study, Listeria cells were released into the environment at two different cell numbers and under two airflow conditions. Trypticase soy agar (TSA) plates and oven-roasted breasts of chicken and turkey were placed in the chamber to monitor Listeria cell numbers deposited from aerosols. A similar experimental design was used in the pilot plant study; however, only L. innocua was used. Results showed that L. monocytogenes and L. innocua survived equally well on chicken and turkey breast meats and TSA plates. No-fan and continuous fan applications, which affected airflow, had no significant effect on settling rates of aerosolized L. monocytogenes and L. innocua in the bioaerosol chamber or L. innocua in the pilot plant study. Listeriae cell numbers in the air decreased rapidly during the first 1.5 h following release, with few to no listeriae detected in the air at 3 h. Aerosol particles with diameters of 1 and 2 microM correlated directly with the number of Listeria cells in the aerosol but not with particles that were 0.3, 0.5, and 5 microM in diameter. Results indicate that L. innocua can be used as a surrogate for L. monocytogenes in an aerosol study.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fields, D.E.; Cooper, A.C.; Miller, C.W.
1987-02-01
This report describes the methodology used and results obtained in efforts to estimate the sodium aerosol concentrations at air intake ports of a liquid-metal cooled, fast-breeder nuclear reactor. An earlier version of this methodology has been previously discussed (Fields and Miller, 1985). A range of wind speeds from 2 to 10 m/s is assumed, and an effort is made to include building wake effects which, in many cases, dominate the dispersal of aerosols near buildings. For relatively small release rates, on the order of 1 to 10 kg/s, the plume rise is small and estimates of aerosol concentrations are derived using the methodology of Wilson and Britter (1982), which describes releases from surface vents. For release rates on the order of 100 kg/s much higher release velocities are expected, and plume rise is considered. An effective increase in release height is computed using the Split-H methodology with a parameterization suggested by Ramsdell (1983), and the release source strength is transformed to rooftop level. Evaluation of the acute release aerosol concentration is then based on the methodology for releases from a surface release of this transformed source strength. For a horizontal release, a methodology is developed to chart the plume path as a function of release and site meteorology parameters. Results described herein must be regarded as maximum aerosol concentrations, based on models derived from generic wind tunnel studies. More accurate and site-specific results may be obtained through wind tunnel simulations and through simulating emissions from release points other than those assumed here.
Influence of steam on the behavior of U3O8 aerosols
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Adams, R.E.; Tobias, M.L.; Kress, T.S.
1982-01-01
A project is being conducted in the Nuclear Safety Pilot Plant (NSPP), located at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), to study the behavior of aerosols assumed to be generated during LWR reactor accident sequences and released into containment. This project, which is part of the ORNL Aerosol Release and Transport (ART) Program, is sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and its purpose is to provide experimental qualification for LWR aerosol behavioral codes being developed independently by other NRC-sponsored programs. The program plan for the NSPP aerosol project provides for the study of the behavior of LWR accident aerosols emanating from fuel, reactor core structural materials, and from concrete-molten metal reactions. The behavior of each of these aerosols is being studied individually to establish their characteristics; future experiments will involve mixtures of these aerosols to establish their interaction and collective behavior within containment. The purpose of this paper is to document observations illustrating the influence that steam has on the behavior of U 3 O 8 aerosols within the NSPP vessel
On the Specification of Smoke Injection Heights for Aerosol Forecasting
da Silva, A.; Schaefer, C.; Randles, C. A.
2014-12-01
The proper forecasting of biomass burning (BB) aerosols in global or regional transport models requires not only the specification of emission rates with sufficient temporal resolution but also the injection layers of such emissions. While current near realtime biomass burning inventories such as GFAS, QFED, FINN, GBBEP and FLAMBE provide such emission rates, it is left for each modeling system to come up with its own scheme for distributing these emissions in the vertical. A number of operational aerosol forecasting models deposits BB emissions in the near surface model layers, relying on the model's parameterization of turbulent and convective transport to determine the vertical mass distribution of BB aerosols. Despite their simplicity such schemes have been relatively successful reproducing the vertical structure of BB aerosols, except for those large fires that produce enough buoyancy to puncture the PBL and deposit the smoke at higher layers. Plume Rise models such as the so-called 'Freitas model', parameterize this sub-grid buoyancy effect, but require the specification of fire size and heat fluxes, none of which is readily available in near real-time from current remotely-sensed products. In this talk we will introduce a bayesian algorithm for estimating file size and heat fluxes from MODIS brightness temperatures. For small to moderate fires the Freitas model driven by these heat flux estimates produces plume tops that are highly correlated with the GEOS-5 model estimate of PBL height. Comparison to MINX plume height estimates from MISR indicates moderate skill of this scheme predicting the injection height of large fires. As an alternative, we make use of OMPS UV aerosol index data in combination with estimates of Overshooting Convective Tops (from MODIS and Geo-stationary satellites) to detect PyCu events and specify the BB emission vertical mass distribution in such cases. We will present a discussion of case studies during the SEAC4RS field campaign in
A Bayesian Reflection on Surfaces
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David R. Wolf
1999-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract: The topic of this paper is a novel Bayesian continuous-basis field representation and inference framework. Within this paper several problems are solved: The maximally informative inference of continuous-basis fields, that is where the basis for the field is itself a continuous object and not representable in a finite manner; the tradeoff between accuracy of representation in terms of information learned, and memory or storage capacity in bits; the approximation of probability distributions so that a maximal amount of information about the object being inferred is preserved; an information theoretic justification for multigrid methodology. The maximally informative field inference framework is described in full generality and denoted the Generalized Kalman Filter. The Generalized Kalman Filter allows the update of field knowledge from previous knowledge at any scale, and new data, to new knowledge at any other scale. An application example instance, the inference of continuous surfaces from measurements (for example, camera image data, is presented.
Attention in a bayesian framework
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Whiteley, Louise Emma; Sahani, Maneesh
2012-01-01
, and include both selective phenomena, where attention is invoked by cues that point to particular stimuli, and integrative phenomena, where attention is invoked dynamically by endogenous processing. However, most previous Bayesian accounts of attention have focused on describing relatively simple experimental...... selective and integrative roles, and thus cannot be easily extended to complex environments. We suggest that the resource bottleneck stems from the computational intractability of exact perceptual inference in complex settings, and that attention reflects an evolved mechanism for approximate inference which...... can be shaped to refine the local accuracy of perception. We show that this approach extends the simple picture of attention as prior, so as to provide a unified and computationally driven account of both selective and integrative attentional phenomena....
On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Soerensen Ringi, M
1995-05-01
The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.
Nonparametric Bayesian inference in biostatistics
Müller, Peter
2015-01-01
As chapters in this book demonstrate, BNP has important uses in clinical sciences and inference for issues like unknown partitions in genomics. Nonparametric Bayesian approaches (BNP) play an ever expanding role in biostatistical inference from use in proteomics to clinical trials. Many research problems involve an abundance of data and require flexible and complex probability models beyond the traditional parametric approaches. As this book's expert contributors show, BNP approaches can be the answer. Survival Analysis, in particular survival regression, has traditionally used BNP, but BNP's potential is now very broad. This applies to important tasks like arrangement of patients into clinically meaningful subpopulations and segmenting the genome into functionally distinct regions. This book is designed to both review and introduce application areas for BNP. While existing books provide theoretical foundations, this book connects theory to practice through engaging examples and research questions. Chapters c...
On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soerensen Ringi, M.
1995-01-01
The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person's state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs
Bayesian estimation in homodyne interferometry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Olivares, Stefano; Paris, Matteo G A
2009-01-01
We address phase-shift estimation by means of squeezed vacuum probe and homodyne detection. We analyse Bayesian estimator, which is known to asymptotically saturate the classical Cramer-Rao bound to the variance, and discuss convergence looking at the a posteriori distribution as the number of measurements increases. We also suggest two feasible adaptive methods, acting on the squeezing parameter and/or the homodyne local oscillator phase, which allow us to optimize homodyne detection and approach the ultimate bound to precision imposed by the quantum Cramer-Rao theorem. The performances of our two-step methods are investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulated experiments with a small number of homodyne data, thus giving a quantitative meaning to the notion of asymptotic optimality.
Bayesian Kernel Mixtures for Counts.
Canale, Antonio; Dunson, David B
2011-12-01
Although Bayesian nonparametric mixture models for continuous data are well developed, there is a limited literature on related approaches for count data. A common strategy is to use a mixture of Poissons, which unfortunately is quite restrictive in not accounting for distributions having variance less than the mean. Other approaches include mixing multinomials, which requires finite support, and using a Dirichlet process prior with a Poisson base measure, which does not allow smooth deviations from the Poisson. As a broad class of alternative models, we propose to use nonparametric mixtures of rounded continuous kernels. An efficient Gibbs sampler is developed for posterior computation, and a simulation study is performed to assess performance. Focusing on the rounded Gaussian case, we generalize the modeling framework to account for multivariate count data, joint modeling with continuous and categorical variables, and other complications. The methods are illustrated through applications to a developmental toxicity study and marketing data. This article has supplementary material online.
Bayesian networks in educational assessment
Almond, Russell G; Steinberg, Linda S; Yan, Duanli; Williamson, David M
2015-01-01
Bayesian inference networks, a synthesis of statistics and expert systems, have advanced reasoning under uncertainty in medicine, business, and social sciences. This innovative volume is the first comprehensive treatment exploring how they can be applied to design and analyze innovative educational assessments. Part I develops Bayes nets’ foundations in assessment, statistics, and graph theory, and works through the real-time updating algorithm. Part II addresses parametric forms for use with assessment, model-checking techniques, and estimation with the EM algorithm and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A unique feature is the volume’s grounding in Evidence-Centered Design (ECD) framework for assessment design. This “design forward” approach enables designers to take full advantage of Bayes nets’ modularity and ability to model complex evidentiary relationships that arise from performance in interactive, technology-rich assessments such as simulations. Part III describes ECD, situates Bayes nets as ...
Robust bayesian analysis of an autoregressive model with ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this work, robust Bayesian analysis of the Bayesian estimation of an autoregressive model with exponential innovations is performed. Using a Bayesian robustness methodology, we show that, using a suitable generalized quadratic loss, we obtain optimal Bayesian estimators of the parameters corresponding to the ...
Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists
Hobbs, N Thompson
2015-01-01
Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili
American Association for Aerosol Research (AAAR) `95
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
1995-12-31
The Fourteenth annual meeting of the American Association for Aerosol Research was held October 9-13, 1995 at Westin William Penn Hotel in Pittsburgh, PA. This volume contains the abstracts of the papers and poster sessions presented at this meeting, grouped by the session in which they were presented as follows: Radiation Effects; Aerosol Deposition; Collision Simulations and Microphysical Behavior; Filtration Theory and Measurements; Materials Synthesis; Radioactive and Nuclear Aerosols; Aerosol Formation, Thermodynamic Properties, and Behavior; Particle Contamination Issues in the Computer Industry; Pharmaceutical Aerosol Technology; Modeling Global/Regional Aerosols; Visibility; Respiratory Deposition; Biomass and Biogenic Aerosols; Aerosol Dynamics; Atmospheric Aerosols.
Dai, Mengyan; Liu, Jianghai; Cui, Jianlin; Chen, Chunsheng; Jia, Peng
2017-10-01
In order to solve the problem of the quantitative test of spectrum and color of aerosol, the measurement method of spectrum of aerosol based on human visual system was proposed. The spectrum characteristics and color parameters of three different aerosols were tested, and the color differences were calculated according to the CIE1976-L*a*b* color difference formula. Three tested powders (No 1# No 2# and No 3# ) were dispersed in a plexglass box and turned into aerosol. The powder sample was released by an injector with different dosages in each experiment. The spectrum and color of aerosol were measured by the PRO 6500 Fiber Optic Spectrometer. The experimental results showed that the extinction performance of aerosol became stronger and stronger with the increase of concentration of aerosol. While the chromaticity value differences of aerosols in the experiment were so small, luminance was verified to be the main influence factor of human eye visual perception and contributed most in the three factors of the color difference calculation. The extinction effect of No 3# aerosol was the strongest of all and caused the biggest change of luminance and color difference which would arouse the strongest human visual perception. According to the sensation level of chromatic color by Chinese, recognition color difference would be produced when the dosage of No 1# powder was more than 0.10 gram, the dosage of No 2# powder was more than 0.15 gram, and the dosage of No 3# powder was more than 0.05 gram.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oki, Yuichi; Tanaka, Toru; Takamiya, Koichi; Ishi, Yoshihiro; UesugI, Tomonori; Kuriyama, Yasutoshi; Sakamoto, Masaaki; Ohtsuki, Tsutomu [Kyoto University Research Reactor Institute, Osaka (Japan); Nitta, Shinnosuke [Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto (Japan); Osada, Naoyuki [Advanced Science Research Center, Okayama University, Okayama (Japan)
2016-09-15
Very fine radiation-induced aerosol particles are produced in intense radiation fields, such as high-intensity accelerator rooms and containment vessels such as those in the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP). Size measurement of the aerosol particles is very important for understanding the behavior of radioactive aerosols released in the FDNPP accident and radiation safety in high-energy accelerators. A combined technique using wire screens and imaging plates was developed for size measurement of fine radioactive aerosol particles smaller than 100 nm in diameter. This technique was applied to the radiation field of a proton accelerator room, in which radioactive atoms produced in air during machine operation are incorporated into radiation-induced aerosol particles. The size of 11C-bearing aerosol particles was analyzed using the wire screen technique in distinction from other positron emitters in combination with a radioactive decay analysis. The size distribution for 11C-bearing aerosol particles was found to be ca. 70 μm in geometric mean diameter. The size was similar to that for 7Be-bearing particles obtained by a Ge detector measurement, and was slightly larger than the number-based size distribution measured with a scanning mobility particle sizer. The particle size measuring method using wire screens and imaging plates was successfully applied to the fine aerosol particles produced in an intense radiation field of a proton accelerator. This technique is applicable to size measurement of radioactive aerosol particles produced in the intense radiation fields of radiation facilities.
Evaluating MODIS Collection 6 Dark Target Over Water Aerosol Products for Multi-sensor Data Fusion
Shi, Y.; Zhang, J.; Reid, J. S.; Hyer, E. J.; McHardy, T. M.; Lee, L.
2014-12-01
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol products have been widely used in aerosol related climate, visibility, and air quality studies for more than a decade. Recently, the MODIS collection 6 (c6) aerosol products from MODIS-Aqua have been released. The reported changes between Collection 5 and Collection 6 include updates in the retrieving algorithms and a new cloud filtering process for the over-ocean products. Thus it is necessary to fully evaluate the collection 6 products for applications that require high quality MODIS aerosol optical depth data, such as operational aerosol data assimilation. The uncertainties in the MODIS c6 DT over ocean products are studied through both inter-comparing with the Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) aerosol products and by evaluation against ground truth. Special attention is given to the low bias in MODIS DT products due to the misclassifications of heavy aerosol plumes as clouds. Finally, a quality assured data assimilation grade aerosol optical product is constructed for aerosol data assimilation related applications.
Sampling and characterization of aerosols formed in the atmospheric hydrolysis of UF6
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bostick, W.D.; McCulla, W.H.; Pickrell, P.W.; Branam, D.A.
1983-01-01
When gaseous UF 6 is released into the atmosphere, it rapidly reacts with ambient moisture to form an aerosol of uranyl fluoride and HF. As part of our Safety Analysis program, we have performed several experimental releases of UF 6 (from natural uranium) in contained volumes in order to investigate techniques for sampling and characterizing the aerosol materials. The aggregrate particle morphology and size distribution have been found to be dependent upon several conditions, including the relative humidity at the time of the release and the elapse time after the release. Aerosol composition and settling rate have been investigated using isokinetic samplers for the separate collection of UO 2 F 2 and HF, and via laser spectroscopic remote sensing (Mie scatter and infrared spectroscopy). 8 references
Modification of combustion aerosols in the atmosphere
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Weingartner, E [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)
1996-07-01
Combustion aerosols particles are released on large scale into the atmosphere in the industrialized regions as well as in the tropics (by wood fires). The particles are subjected to various aging processes which depend on the size, morphology, and chemical composition of the particles. The interaction of combustion particles with sunlight and humidity as well as adsorption and desorption of volatile material to or from the particles considerably changes their physical and chemical properties and thus their residence time in the atmosphere. This is of importance because combustion particles are known to have a variety of health effects on people. Moreover, atmospheric aerosol particles have an influence on climate, directly through the reflection and absorption of solar radiation and indirectly through modifying the optical properties and lifetime of clouds. In a first step, a field experiment was carried out to study the sources and characteristics of combustion aerosols that are emitted from vehicles in a road tunnel. It was found that most of the fine particles were tail pipe emissions of diesel powered vehicles. The calculation shows that on an average these vehicles emit about 300 mg fine particulate matter per driven kilometer. This emission factor is at least 100 times higher than the mean emission factor estimated for gasoline powered vehicles. Furthermore, it is found that during their residence time in the tunnel, the particles undergo significant changes: The particles change towards a more compact structure. The conclusion is reached that this is mainly due to adsorption of volatile material from the gas phase to the particle surface. In the atmosphere, the life cycle as well as the radiative and chemical properties of an aerosol particle is strongly dependent on its response to humidity. Therefore the hygroscopic behavior of combustion particles emitted from single sources (i.e. from a gasoline and a diesel engine) were studied in laboratory experiments.
The impact of changing surface ocean conditions on the dissolution of aerosol iron
Fishwick, Matthew P.; Sedwick, Peter N.; Lohan, Maeve C.; Worsfold, Paul J.; Buck, Kristen N.; Church, Thomas M.; Ussher, Simon J.
2014-11-01
The proportion of aerosol iron (Fe) that dissolves in seawater varies greatly and is dependent on aerosol composition and the physicochemical conditions of seawater, which may change depending on location or be altered by global environmental change. Aerosol and surface seawater samples were collected in the Sargasso Sea and used to investigate the impact of these changing conditions on aerosol Fe dissolution in seawater. Our data show that seawater temperature, pH, and oxygen concentration, within the range of current and projected future values, had no significant effect on the dissolution of aerosol Fe. However, the source and composition of aerosols had the most significant effect on the aerosol Fe solubility, with the most anthropogenically influenced samples having the highest fractional solubility (up to 3.2%). The impact of ocean warming and acidification on aerosol Fe dissolution is therefore unlikely to be as important as changes in land usage and fossil fuel combustion. Our experimental results also reveal important changes in the size distribution of soluble aerosol Fe in solution, depending on the chemical conditions of seawater. Under typical conditions, the majority (77-100%) of Fe released from aerosols into ambient seawater existed in the colloidal (0.02-0.4 µm) size fraction. However, in the presence of a sufficient concentration of strong Fe-binding organic ligands (10 nM) most of the aerosol-derived colloidal Fe was converted to soluble Fe (<0.02 µm). This finding highlights the potential importance of organic ligands in retaining aerosol Fe in a biologically available form in the surface ocean.
Special aerosol sources for certification and test of aerosol radiometers
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Belkina, S.K.; Zalmanzon, Y.E.; Kuznetsov, Y.V.; Rizin, A.I.; Fertman, D.E.
1991-01-01
The results are presented of the development and practical application of new radionuclide source types (Special Aerosol Sources (SAS)), that meet the international standard recommendations, which are used for certification and test of aerosol radiometers (monitors) using model aerosols of plutonium-239, strontium-yttrium-90 or uranium of natural isotope composition and certified against Union of Soviet Socialist Republics USSR national radioactive aerosol standard or by means of a reference radiometer. The original technology for source production allows the particular features of sampling to be taken into account as well as geometry and conditions of radionuclides radiation registration in the sample for the given type of radiometer. (author)
Special aerosol sources for certification and test of aerosol radiometers
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Belkina, S.K.; Zalmanzon, Y.E.; Kuznetsov, Y.V.; Rizin, A.I.; Fertman, D.E. (Union Research Institute of Instrumentation, Moscow (USSR))
1991-01-01
The results are presented of the development and practical application of new radionuclide source types (Special Aerosol Sources (SAS)), that meet the international standard recommendations, which are used for certification and test of aerosol radiometers (monitors) using model aerosols of plutonium-239, strontium-yttrium-90 or uranium of natural isotope composition and certified against Union of Soviet Socialist Republics USSR national radioactive aerosol standard or by means of a reference radiometer. The original technology for source production allows the particular features of sampling to be taken into account as well as geometry and conditions of radionuclides radiation registration in the sample for the given type of radiometer. (author).
Assessing numerical methods used in nuclear aerosol transport models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
McDonald, B.H.
1987-01-01
Several computer codes are in use for predicting the behaviour of nuclear aerosols released into containment during postulated accidents in water-cooled reactors. Each of these codes uses numerical methods to discretize and integrate the equations that govern the aerosol transport process. Computers perform only algebraic operations and generate only numbers. It is in the numerical methods that sense can be made of these numbers and where they can be related to the actual solution of the equations. In this report, the numerical methods most commonly used in the aerosol transport codes are examined as special cases of a general solution procedure, the Method of Weighted Residuals. It would appear that the numerical methods used in the codes are all capable of producing reasonable answers to the mathematical problem when used with skill and care. 27 refs
Evaporation of droplets in a Champagne wine aerosol
Ghabache, Elisabeth; Liger-Belair, Gérard; Antkowiak, Arnaud; Séon, Thomas
2016-01-01
In a single glass of champagne about a million bubbles nucleate on the wall and rise towards the surface. When these bubbles reach the surface and rupture, they project a multitude of tiny droplets in the form of a particular aerosol holding a concentrate of wine aromas. Based on the model experiment of a single bubble bursting in idealized champagnes, the key features of the champagne aerosol are identified. In particular, we show that film drops, critical in sea spray for example, are here nonexistent. We then demonstrate that compared to a still wine, champagne fizz drastically enhances the transfer of liquid into the atmosphere. There, conditions on bubble radius and wine viscosity that optimize aerosol evaporation are provided. These results pave the way towards the fine tuning of flavor release during sparkling wine tasting, a major issue for the sparkling wine industry. PMID:27125240
Evaporation of droplets in a Champagne wine aerosol
Ghabache, Elisabeth; Liger-Belair, Gérard; Antkowiak, Arnaud; Séon, Thomas
2016-04-01
In a single glass of champagne about a million bubbles nucleate on the wall and rise towards the surface. When these bubbles reach the surface and rupture, they project a multitude of tiny droplets in the form of a particular aerosol holding a concentrate of wine aromas. Based on the model experiment of a single bubble bursting in idealized champagnes, the key features of the champagne aerosol are identified. In particular, we show that film drops, critical in sea spray for example, are here nonexistent. We then demonstrate that compared to a still wine, champagne fizz drastically enhances the transfer of liquid into the atmosphere. There, conditions on bubble radius and wine viscosity that optimize aerosol evaporation are provided. These results pave the way towards the fine tuning of flavor release during sparkling wine tasting, a major issue for the sparkling wine industry.
Bayesian adaptive methods for clinical trials
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Berry, Scott M
2011-01-01
.... One is that Bayesian approaches implemented with the majority of their informative content coming from the current data, and not any external prior informa- tion, typically have good frequentist properties (e.g...
A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buslik, A.
1994-01-01
A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given
Structure-based bayesian sparse reconstruction
Quadeer, Ahmed Abdul; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.
2012-01-01
Sparse signal reconstruction algorithms have attracted research attention due to their wide applications in various fields. In this paper, we present a simple Bayesian approach that utilizes the sparsity constraint and a priori statistical
An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reddy, Vikas; Farr, Anna Charisse; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K D V
2014-01-01
Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++
Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data
Liang, Faming
2009-02-01
Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly, it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism and thus avoids essentially the local-trap problem suffered by conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches in learning Bayesian networks. Secondly, it falls into the class of dynamic importance sampling algorithms; the network features can be inferred by dynamically weighted averaging the samples generated in the learning process, and the resulting estimates can have much lower variation than the single model-based estimates. The numerical results indicate that our approach can mix much faster over the space of Bayesian networks than the conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference
Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.
2014-03-01
Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.
Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.
Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji
2018-01-01
An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.
Correct Bayesian and frequentist intervals are similar
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Atwood, C.L.
1986-01-01
This paper argues that Bayesians and frequentists will normally reach numerically similar conclusions, when dealing with vague data or sparse data. It is shown that both statistical methodologies can deal reasonably with vague data. With sparse data, in many important practical cases Bayesian interval estimates and frequentist confidence intervals are approximately equal, although with discrete data the frequentist intervals are somewhat longer. This is not to say that the two methodologies are equally easy to use: The construction of a frequentist confidence interval may require new theoretical development. Bayesians methods typically require numerical integration, perhaps over many variables. Also, Bayesian can easily fall into the trap of over-optimism about their amount of prior knowledge. But in cases where both intervals are found correctly, the two intervals are usually not very different. (orig.)
Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.
2002-01-01
The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas
An overview on Approximate Bayesian computation*
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Baragatti Meïli
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation techniques, also called likelihood-free methods, are one of the most satisfactory approach to intractable likelihood problems. This overview presents recent results since its introduction about ten years ago in population genetics.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Falcon, Y.I.; Ramirez, C.R.
1987-01-01
A major task in the field of air pollution monitoring is the development of devices for determining the mass and composition of airborne particulate matter as a function of size - and time. The sample collection device must be designed giving consideration to the nature of the aerosol and to the effects of the aerosol on human health. It has been established that particles smaller than 3.5 μm in diameter can penetrate deeply into the human respiratory system, and that larger particles are trapped in the upper respiratory passages. For these reasons, it is desirable to use a dichotomous sampler to collect particles in two size ranges, rather than to collect total particulates on a single filter. The authors discuss a study in Mexico City using a dichotomous sampler
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Butcher, Andrew Charles
emissions produced directly from bubble bursting as the result of air entrainment from breaking waves and particles generated from secondary emissions of volatile organic compounds. In the first paper, we study the chemical properties of particles produced from several sea water proxies with the use...... of a cloud condensation nuclei ounter. Proxy solutions with high inorganic salt concentrations and some organics produce sea spray aerosol particles with little change in cloud condensation activity relative to pure salts. Comparison is made between a frit based method for bubble production and a plunging...... a relationship between plunging jet particle ux, oceanic particle ux, and energy dissipation rate in both systems. Previous sea spray aerosol studies dissipate an order of magnitude more energy for the same particle ux production as the open ocean. A scaling factor related to the energy expended in air...
Aerosol characterization during project POLINAT
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hagen, D.E.; Hopkins, A.R.; Paladino, J.D.; Whitefield, P.D. [Missouri Univ., Rolla, MO (United States). Cloud and Aerosol Sciences Lab.; Lilenfeld, H.V. [McDonnell Douglas Aerospace-East, St. Louis, MO (United States)
1997-12-31
The objectives of the aerosol/particulate characterization measurements of project POLINAT (POLlution from aircraft emissions In the North ATlantic flight corridor) are: to search for aerosol/particulate signatures of air traffic emissions in the region of the North Atlantic Flight Corridor; to search for the aerosol/particulate component of large scale enhancement (`corridor effects`) of air traffic related species in the North Atlantic region; to determine the effective emission indices for the aerosol/particulate component of engine exhaust in both the near and far field of aircraft exhaust plumes; to measure the dispersion and transformation of the aerosol/particulate component of aircraft emissions as a function of ambient condition; to characterize background levels of aerosol/particulate concentrations in the North Atlantic Region; and to determine effective emission indices for engine exhaust particulates for regimes beyond the jet phase of plume expansion. (author) 10 refs.
Aerosol characterization during project POLINAT
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hagen, D E; Hopkins, A R; Paladino, J D; Whitefield, P D [Missouri Univ., Rolla, MO (United States). Cloud and Aerosol Sciences Lab.; Lilenfeld, H V [McDonnell Douglas Aerospace-East, St. Louis, MO (United States)
1998-12-31
The objectives of the aerosol/particulate characterization measurements of project POLINAT (POLlution from aircraft emissions In the North ATlantic flight corridor) are: to search for aerosol/particulate signatures of air traffic emissions in the region of the North Atlantic Flight Corridor; to search for the aerosol/particulate component of large scale enhancement (`corridor effects`) of air traffic related species in the North Atlantic region; to determine the effective emission indices for the aerosol/particulate component of engine exhaust in both the near and far field of aircraft exhaust plumes; to measure the dispersion and transformation of the aerosol/particulate component of aircraft emissions as a function of ambient condition; to characterize background levels of aerosol/particulate concentrations in the North Atlantic Region; and to determine effective emission indices for engine exhaust particulates for regimes beyond the jet phase of plume expansion. (author) 10 refs.
Aerosol Observing System (AOS) Handbook
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jefferson, A
2011-01-17
The Aerosol Observing System (AOS) is a suite of in situ surface measurements of aerosol optical and cloud-forming properties. The instruments measure aerosol properties that influence the earth’s radiative balance. The primary optical measurements are those of the aerosol scattering and absorption coefficients as a function of particle size and radiation wavelength and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) measurements as a function of percent supersaturation. Additional measurements include those of the particle number concentration and scattering hygroscopic growth. Aerosol optical measurements are useful for calculating parameters used in radiative forcing calculations such as the aerosol single-scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, mass scattering efficiency, and hygroscopic growth. CCN measurements are important in cloud microphysical models to predict droplet formation.
Bayesian probability theory and inverse problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kopec, S.
1994-01-01
Bayesian probability theory is applied to approximate solving of the inverse problems. In order to solve the moment problem with the noisy data, the entropic prior is used. The expressions for the solution and its error bounds are presented. When the noise level tends to zero, the Bayesian solution tends to the classic maximum entropy solution in the L 2 norm. The way of using spline prior is also shown. (author)
A Bayesian classifier for symbol recognition
Barrat , Sabine; Tabbone , Salvatore; Nourrissier , Patrick
2007-01-01
URL : http://www.buyans.com/POL/UploadedFile/134_9977.pdf; International audience; We present in this paper an original adaptation of Bayesian networks to symbol recognition problem. More precisely, a descriptor combination method, which enables to improve significantly the recognition rate compared to the recognition rates obtained by each descriptor, is presented. In this perspective, we use a simple Bayesian classifier, called naive Bayes. In fact, probabilistic graphical models, more spec...
Bayesian Modeling of a Human MMORPG Player
Synnaeve, Gabriel; Bessière, Pierre
2011-03-01
This paper describes an application of Bayesian programming to the control of an autonomous avatar in a multiplayer role-playing game (the example is based on World of Warcraft). We model a particular task, which consists of choosing what to do and to select which target in a situation where allies and foes are present. We explain the model in Bayesian programming and show how we could learn the conditional probabilities from data gathered during human-played sessions.
Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference
2016-05-09
inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle
Bayesian target tracking based on particle filter
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2005-01-01
For being able to deal with the nonlinear or non-Gaussian problems, particle filters have been studied by many researchers. Based on particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) proposal function is applied to Bayesian target tracking. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, the resampling step, etc novel techniques are also introduced into Bayesian target tracking. And the simulation results confirm the improved particle filter with these techniques outperforms the basic one.
MCMC for parameters estimation by bayesian approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ait Saadi, H.; Ykhlef, F.; Guessoum, A.
2011-01-01
This article discusses the parameter estimation for dynamic system by a Bayesian approach associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). The MCMC methods are powerful for approximating complex integrals, simulating joint distributions, and the estimation of marginal posterior distributions, or posterior means. The MetropolisHastings algorithm has been widely used in Bayesian inference to approximate posterior densities. Calibrating the proposal distribution is one of the main issues of MCMC simulation in order to accelerate the convergence.
Bayesian Networks for Modeling Dredging Decisions
2011-10-01
years, that algorithms have been developed to solve these problems efficiently. Most modern Bayesian network software uses junction tree (a.k.a. join... software was used to develop the network . This is by no means an exhaustive list of Bayesian network applications, but it is representative of recent...characteristic node (SCN), state- defining node ( SDN ), effect node (EFN), or value node. The five types of nodes can be described as follows: ERDC/EL TR-11
Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine
2016-01-01
Roč. 369, č. 1 (2016), s. 532-547 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Ideal distribution * Minimum cross-entropy principle * Bayesian conditioning * Kullback-Leibler divergence * Bayesian nonparametric modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.832, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/karny-0463052.pdf
A Bayesian Method for Weighted Sampling
Lo, Albert Y.
1993-01-01
Bayesian statistical inference for sampling from weighted distribution models is studied. Small-sample Bayesian bootstrap clone (BBC) approximations to the posterior distribution are discussed. A second-order property for the BBC in unweighted i.i.d. sampling is given. A consequence is that BBC approximations to a posterior distribution of the mean and to the sampling distribution of the sample average, can be made asymptotically accurate by a proper choice of the random variables that genera...
Photothermal spectroscopy of aerosols
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Campillo, A.J.; Lin, H.B.
1981-04-01
In situ aerosol absorption spectroscopy was performed using two novel photothermal detection schemes. The first, based on a photorefractive effect and coherent detection, called phase fluctuation optical heterodyne (PFLOH) spectroscopy, could, depending on the geometry employed, yield particle specific or particle and gas absorption data. Single particles of graphite as small as 1 μm were detected in the particle specific mode. In another geometrical configuration, the total absorption (both gas and particle) of submicron sized aerosols of ammonium sulfate particles in equilibrium with gaseous ammonia and water vapor were measured at varying CO 2 laser frequencies. The specific absorption coefficient for the sulfate ion was measured to be 0.5 m 2 /g at 1087 cm -1 . The absorption coefficient sensitivity of this scheme was less than or equal to 10 -8 cm -1 . The second scheme is a hybrid visible Mie scattering scheme incorporating photothermal modulation. Particle specific data on ammonium sulfate droplets were obtained. For chemically identical species, the relative absorption spectrum versus laser frequency can be obtained for polydisperse aerosol distributions directly from the data without the need for complex inverse scattering calculations
Fission product vapour - aerosol interactions in the containment: simulant fuel studies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Beard, A.M.; Benson, C.G.; Bowsher, B.R.
1988-12-01
Experiments have been conducted in the Falcon facility to study the interaction of fission product vapours released from simulant fuel samples with control rod aerosols. The aerosols generated from both the control rod and fuel sample were chemically distinct and had different deposition characteristics. Extensive interaction was observed between the fission product vapours and the control rod aerosol. The two dominant mechanisms were condensation of the vapours onto the aerosol, and chemical reactions between the two components; sorption phenomena were believed to be only of secondary importance. The interaction of fission product vapours and reactor materials aerosols could have a major impact on the transport characteristics of the radioactive emission from a degrading core. (author)
Local transport of vertically- and horizontally-emitted sodium oxide aerosols
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fields, D.E.; Miller, C.W.; Cooper, A.C.
1986-01-01
Liquid-metal cooled breeder reactors are expected to use large quantities of sodium or sodium-potassium alloy, and evaluation of the possible consequences of a liquid-metal fire, henceforth referred to as a sodium fire, is an important consideration. Of particular interest is the sodium aerosol concentration at the air intake ports that are used for reactor cooling, and which might suffer restricted flow under high aerosol concentrations. We have devised and applied a methodology for estimating the concentration of aerosols released vertically and horizontally from building surfaces and monitored at other building surface points. We have used this methodology to make calculations that indicate the time-development of aerosol build-up, and the maximum aerosol concentrations, at air intake ports. Building wake effects, momentum-driven plume rise, and density-driven plume rise are considered
Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.
Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla
2013-02-01
A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.
Prediction of fission product and aerosol behaviour during a postulated severe accident in a LWR
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guentay, S.; Aeby, F.; Raguin, M.; Passalacqua, R.
1990-02-01
Lack of appropriate energy removal causes fuel elements in a reactor core to overheat and may eventually cause core to degrade. Fission products will be emitted from a degraded reactor core. Aerosols are generated when the vapours of various fuel and structural materials reach a cold environment and nucleate. In addition to the fission products release and aerosol generation taking place in the reactor vessel, some more fission products release and aerosol generation will occur when the molten core debris leaves the pressure vessel bottom head and comes in contact with the pedestal concrete floor. Fission products, if they are released to environment from the containment boundary, exert a great danger to public health. A source term is defined as the quantity, timing, and characteristics of the release of radionuclide material to the environment following a postulated severe accident. At PSI a considerable effort hase been spent in investigating and establishing a source term assessment methodology in order to predict the source term for a given Light Water Reactor (LWR) accident scenario. This report introduces the computer programs and the methods associated with the release of the fission products, generation of the aerosols and behaviour of the aerosols in LWR compartments used for a source term assessment analysis at PSI. (author) 4 figs., 5 tabs., 28 refs
2016-03-01
each IDF curve and subsequently used to force a calibrated and validated precipitation - runoff model. Probability-based, risk-informed hydrologic...ERDC/CHL CHETN-X-2 March 2016 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Bayesian Inference of Nonstationary Precipitation Intensity...based means by which to develop local precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves using historical rainfall time series data collected for
How to detect the location and time of a covert chemical attack a Bayesian approach
See, Mei Eng Elaine.
2009-01-01
Approved for public release, distribution unlimited In this thesis, we develop a Bayesian updating model that estimates the location and time of a chemical attack using inputs from chemical sensors and Atmospheric Threat and Dispersion (ATD) models. In bridging the critical gap between raw sensor data and threat evaluation and prediction, the model will help authorities perform better hazard prediction and damage control. The model is evaluated with respect to settings representing real-wo...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. J. Engelhart
2011-02-01
Full Text Available The composition and physical properties of aged atmospheric aerosol were characterized at a remote sampling site on the northern coast of Crete, Greece during the Finokalia Aerosol Measurement Experiment in May 2008 (FAME-2008. A reduced Dry-Ambient Aerosol Size Spectrometer (DAASS was deployed to measure the aerosol water content and volumetric growth factor of fine particulate matter. The particles remained wet even at relative humidity (RH as low as 20%. The aerosol was acidic during most of the measurement campaign, which likely contributed to the water uptake at low RH. The water content observations were compared to the thermodynamic model E-AIM, neglecting any contribution of the organics to aerosol water content. There was good agreement between the water measurements and the model predictions. Adding the small amount of water associated with the organic aerosol based on monoterpene water absorption did not change the quality of the agreement. These results strongly suggest that the water uptake by aged organic aerosol is relatively small (a few percent of the total water for the conditions during FAME-08 and generally consistent with what has been observed in laboratory experiments. The water concentration measured by a Q-AMS was well correlated with the DAASS measurements and in good agreement with the predicted values for the RH of the Q-AMS inlet. This suggests that, at least for the conditions of the study, the Q-AMS can provide valuable information about the aerosol water concentrations if the sample is not dried.
Topics in current aerosol research
Hidy, G M
1971-01-01
Topics in Current Aerosol Research deals with the fundamental aspects of aerosol science, with emphasis on experiment and theory describing highly dispersed aerosols (HDAs) as well as the dynamics of charged suspensions. Topics covered range from the basic properties of HDAs to their formation and methods of generation; sources of electric charges; interactions between fluid and aerosol particles; and one-dimensional motion of charged cloud of particles. This volume is comprised of 13 chapters and begins with an introduction to the basic properties of HDAs, followed by a discussion on the form
Approximate Bayesian computation for forward modeling in cosmology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Akeret, Joël; Refregier, Alexandre; Amara, Adam; Seehars, Sebastian; Hasner, Caspar
2015-01-01
Bayesian inference is often used in cosmology and astrophysics to derive constraints on model parameters from observations. This approach relies on the ability to compute the likelihood of the data given a choice of model parameters. In many practical situations, the likelihood function may however be unavailable or intractable due to non-gaussian errors, non-linear measurements processes, or complex data formats such as catalogs and maps. In these cases, the simulation of mock data sets can often be made through forward modeling. We discuss how Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) can be used in these cases to derive an approximation to the posterior constraints using simulated data sets. This technique relies on the sampling of the parameter set, a distance metric to quantify the difference between the observation and the simulations and summary statistics to compress the information in the data. We first review the principles of ABC and discuss its implementation using a Population Monte-Carlo (PMC) algorithm and the Mahalanobis distance metric. We test the performance of the implementation using a Gaussian toy model. We then apply the ABC technique to the practical case of the calibration of image simulations for wide field cosmological surveys. We find that the ABC analysis is able to provide reliable parameter constraints for this problem and is therefore a promising technique for other applications in cosmology and astrophysics. Our implementation of the ABC PMC method is made available via a public code release
EXONEST: The Bayesian Exoplanetary Explorer
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kevin H. Knuth
2017-10-01
Full Text Available The fields of astronomy and astrophysics are currently engaged in an unprecedented era of discovery as recent missions have revealed thousands of exoplanets orbiting other stars. While the Kepler Space Telescope mission has enabled most of these exoplanets to be detected by identifying transiting events, exoplanets often exhibit additional photometric effects that can be used to improve the characterization of exoplanets. The EXONEST Exoplanetary Explorer is a Bayesian exoplanet inference engine based on nested sampling and originally designed to analyze archived Kepler Space Telescope and CoRoT (Convection Rotation et Transits planétaires exoplanet mission data. We discuss the EXONEST software package and describe how it accommodates plug-and-play models of exoplanet-associated photometric effects for the purpose of exoplanet detection, characterization and scientific hypothesis testing. The current suite of models allows for both circular and eccentric orbits in conjunction with photometric effects, such as the primary transit and secondary eclipse, reflected light, thermal emissions, ellipsoidal variations, Doppler beaming and superrotation. We discuss our new efforts to expand the capabilities of the software to include more subtle photometric effects involving reflected and refracted light. We discuss the EXONEST inference engine design and introduce our plans to port the current MATLAB-based EXONEST software package over to the next generation Exoplanetary Explorer, which will be a Python-based open source project with the capability to employ third-party plug-and-play models of exoplanet-related photometric effects.
Maximum entropy and Bayesian methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smith, C.R.; Erickson, G.J.; Neudorfer, P.O.
1992-01-01
Bayesian probability theory and Maximum Entropy methods are at the core of a new view of scientific inference. These 'new' ideas, along with the revolution in computational methods afforded by modern computers allow astronomers, electrical engineers, image processors of any type, NMR chemists and physicists, and anyone at all who has to deal with incomplete and noisy data, to take advantage of methods that, in the past, have been applied only in some areas of theoretical physics. The title workshops have been the focus of a group of researchers from many different fields, and this diversity is evident in this book. There are tutorial and theoretical papers, and applications in a very wide variety of fields. Almost any instance of dealing with incomplete and noisy data can be usefully treated by these methods, and many areas of theoretical research are being enhanced by the thoughtful application of Bayes' theorem. Contributions contained in this volume present a state-of-the-art overview that will be influential and useful for many years to come
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Artaxo, P.; Martins, J.V.; Yamasoe, M.A.; Gerab, F.; Kocinas, S.
1994-01-01
In order to study the natural release of aerosol particles by the Amazon Basin tropical rain forest, the composition and size distribution of biogenic aerosol particles were analyzed. The role of the atmospheric emissions from the Amazon Basin rain forest in the global atmosphere will be investigated. The atmosphere was studied in long-term sampling stations in three different locations. The elemental composition of aerosol particles released during biomass burning was also measured in several different ecosystems, from primary forest to Savannah. One of the main focuses was to identify and quantify important physical and chemical processes in the generation, transformation and deposition of aerosol particles. Also important was to obtain a better understanding of natural aerosol sources concerning identification, their characteristics and strength, to be able to understand the natural chemistry in the atmosphere on a global scale. 36 refs, 3 figs, 3 tabs
Inverse problems in the Bayesian framework
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki; Kaipio, Jari P
2014-01-01
The history of Bayesian methods dates back to the original works of Reverend Thomas Bayes and Pierre-Simon Laplace: the former laid down some of the basic principles on inverse probability in his classic article ‘An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances’ that was read posthumously in the Royal Society in 1763. Laplace, on the other hand, in his ‘Memoirs on inverse probability’ of 1774 developed the idea of updating beliefs and wrote down the celebrated Bayes’ formula in the form we know today. Although not identified yet as a framework for investigating inverse problems, Laplace used the formalism very much in the spirit it is used today in the context of inverse problems, e.g., in his study of the distribution of comets. With the evolution of computational tools, Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular in all fields of human knowledge in which conclusions need to be drawn based on incomplete and noisy data. Needless to say, inverse problems, almost by definition, fall into this category. Systematic work for developing a Bayesian inverse problem framework can arguably be traced back to the 1980s, (the original first edition being published by Elsevier in 1987), although articles on Bayesian methodology applied to inverse problems, in particular in geophysics, had appeared much earlier. Today, as testified by the articles in this special issue, the Bayesian methodology as a framework for considering inverse problems has gained a lot of popularity, and it has integrated very successfully with many traditional inverse problems ideas and techniques, providing novel ways to interpret and implement traditional procedures in numerical analysis, computational statistics, signal analysis and data assimilation. The range of applications where the Bayesian framework has been fundamental goes from geophysics, engineering and imaging to astronomy, life sciences and economy, and continues to grow. There is no question that Bayesian
Aerosol sampler for analysis of fine and ultrafine aerosols
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Mikuška, Pavel; Čapka, Lukáš; Večeřa, Zbyněk
2018-01-01
Roč. 1020 (2018), s. 123-133 ISSN 0003-2670 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-25558S Institutional support: RVO:68081715 Keywords : atmospheric aerosols * aerosol collection * chemical composition Subject RIV: CB - Analytical Chemistry, Separation OBOR OECD: Analytical chemistry Impact factor: 4.950, year: 2016
Aerosol effects in radiation transfer
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Binenko, V.I.; Harshvardhan, H.
1993-01-01
The radiative properties and effects of aerosols are assessed for the following aerosol sources: relatively clean background aerosol, dust storms and dust outbreaks, anthropogenic pollution, and polluted cloud layers. Studies show it is the submicron aerosol fraction that plays a dominant radiative role in the atmosphere. The radiative effect of the aerosol depends not only on its loading but also on the underlying surface albedo and on solar zenith angle. It is only with highly reflecting surfaces such as Arctic ice that aerosols have a warming effect. Radiometric, microphysical, mineral composition, and refractive index measurements are presented for dust and in particular for the Saharan aerosol layer (SAL). Short-wave radiative heating of the atmosphere is caused by the SAL and is due mainly to absorption. However, the SAL does not contribute significantly to the long-wave thermal radiation budget. Field program studies of the radiative effects of aerosols are described. Anthropogenic aerosols deplete the incoming solar radiation. A case field study for a regional Ukrainian center is discussed. The urban aerosol causes a cooling of metropolitan centers, compared with outlying areas, during the day, which is followed by a warming trend at night. In another study, an increase in turbidity by a factor of 3 due to increased industrialization for Mexico City is noted, together with a drop in atmospheric transmission by 10% over a 50-year period. Numerous studies are cited that demonstrate that anthropogenic aerosols affect both the microphysical and radiative properties of clouds, which in turn affect regional climate. Particles acting as cloud nuclei are considered to have the greatest indirect effect on cloud absorptivity of short-wave radiation. Satellite observations show that low-level stratus clouds contaminated by ship exhaust at sea lead to an increase in cloud albedo
A Bayesian theory for seismic foreshocks and aftershocks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Apostol, B.-F.
2006-01-01
Statistical distributions in time, magnitude and energy are derived for seismic foreshocks and aftershocks accompanying a main seismic shock, as based on the Bayesian theory of probabilities and on a model introduced recently for the accumulation of energy in a seismic focus. Omori's law is obtained as a self-replication of a generating distribution, the self-consistency of the process requiring an exponential law for this generating distribution. The two distributions are interrelated by Euler's transform, which provides also a generalized form of Omori's law. The regime of the accompanying seismic events is characterized as fully as possible, including the time dependence of the magnitude and the rate of released energy. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Seifert, M.
1999-01-01
The Swiss Gas Industry has carried out a systematic, technical estimate of methane release from the complete supply chain from production to consumption for the years 1992/1993. The result of this survey provided a conservative value, amounting to 0.9% of the Swiss domestic output. A continuation of the study taking into account new findings with regard to emission factors and the effect of the climate is now available, which provides a value of 0.8% for the target year of 1996. These results show that the renovation of the network has brought about lower losses in the local gas supplies, particularly for the grey cast iron pipelines. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G.-J. Roelofs
2010-08-01
Full Text Available In May 2008, the measurement campaign IMPACT for observation of atmospheric aerosol and cloud properties was conducted in Cabauw, The Netherlands. With a nudged version of the coupled aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM we simulate the size distribution and chemical composition of the aerosol and the associated aerosol optical thickness (AOT for the campaign period. Synoptic scale meteorology is represented realistically through nudging of the vorticity, the divergence, the temperature and the surface pressure. Simulated concentrations of aerosol sulfate and organics at the surface are generally within a factor of two from observed values. The monthly averaged AOT from the model is 0.33, about 20% larger than observed. For selected periods of the month with relatively dry and moist conditions discrepancies are approximately −30% and +15%, respectively. Discrepancies during the dry period are partly caused by inaccurate representation of boundary layer (BL dynamics by the model affecting the simulated AOT. The model simulates too strong exchange between the BL and the free troposphere, resulting in weaker concentration gradients at the BL top than observed for aerosol and humidity, while upward mixing from the surface layers into the BL appears to be underestimated. The results indicate that beside aerosol sulfate and organics also aerosol ammonium and nitrate significantly contribute to aerosol water uptake. The simulated day-to-day variability of AOT follows synoptic scale advection of humidity rather than particle concentration. Even for relatively dry conditions AOT appears to be strongly influenced by the diurnal cycle of RH in the lower boundary layer, further enhanced by uptake and release of nitric acid and ammonia by aerosol water.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wright, A.L.; Kress, T.S.; Smith, A.M.
1980-01-01
This paper presents results from aerosol source term experiments performed in the ORNL Aerosol Release and Transport (ART) Program sponsored by the US NRC. The tests described were performed to provide information on fuel release from an LMFBR primary containment as a result of a hypothetical core-disruptive accident (HCDA). The release path investigated in these tests assumes that a fuel/sodium bubble is formed after disassembly that transports fuel and fission products through the sodium coolant and cover gas to be relased into the reactor secondary containment. Due to the excellent heat transfer characteristics of the sodium, there is potential for large attenuation of the maximum release
Vance, Marina E; Pegues, Valerie; Van Montfrans, Schuyler; Leng, Weinan; Marr, Linsey C
2017-09-05
Three-dimensional (3D) printers are known to emit aerosols, but questions remain about their composition and the fundamental processes driving emissions. The objective of this work was to characterize the aerosol emissions from the operation of a fuse-deposition modeling 3D printer. We modeled the time- and size-resolved emissions of submicrometer aerosols from the printer in a chamber study, gained insight into the chemical composition of emitted aerosols using Raman spectroscopy, and measured the potential for exposure to the aerosols generated by 3D printers under real-use conditions in a variety of indoor environments. The average aerosol emission rates ranged from ∼10 8 to ∼10 11 particles min -1 , and the rates varied over the course of a print job. Acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) filaments generated the largest number of aerosols, and wood-infused polylactic acid (PLA) filaments generated the smallest amount. The emission factors ranged from 6 × 10 8 to 6 × 10 11 per gram of printed part, depending on the type of filament used. For ABS, the Raman spectra of the filament and the printed part were indistinguishable, while the aerosol spectra lacked important peaks corresponding to styrene and acrylonitrile, which are both present in ABS. This observation suggests that aerosols are not a result of volatilization and subsequent nucleation of ABS or direct release of ABS aerosols.
Sodium aerosols and vapour trapping
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Julien-Dolias, M.; Pradel, P.
1986-01-01
This paper gives a survey of the parameters influencing aerosols behaviour in argon cover gas, production and evolution. A comparison is given between experimental results obtained on large pools and theoretical calculations obtained with the code ''Aerosols A2'' in the field of separation in a pipe and deposit on cold surfaces
Mount St. Helens aerosol evolution
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oberbeck, V.R.; Farlow, N.H.
1982-08-01
Stratospheric aerosol samples were collected using a wire impactor during the year following the eruption of Mount St. Helens. Analysis of samples shows that aerosol volume increased for 6 months due to gas-to-particle conversion and then decreased to background levels in the following 6 months.
Mount St. Helens aerosol evolution
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Oberbeck, V.R.; Farlow, N.H.; Fong, W.; Snetsinger, K.G.; Ferry, G.V.; Hayes, D.M.
1982-09-01
Stratospheric aerosol samples were collected using a wire impactor during the year following the eruption of Mt. St. Helens. Analysis of samples show that aerosol volume increased for 6 months due to gas-to-particle conversion and then decreased to background levels in the following 6 months.
AEROSOL VARIABILITY OBSERVED WITH RPAS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. Altstädter
2013-08-01
Full Text Available To observe the origin, vertical and horizontal distribution and variability of aerosol particles, and especially ultrafine particles recently formed, we plan to employ the remotely piloted aircraft system (RPAS Carolo-P360 "ALADINA" of TU Braunschweig. The goal of the presented project is to investigate the vertical and horizontal distribution, transport and small-scale variability of aerosol particles in the atmospheric boundary layer using RPAS. Two additional RPAS of type MASC of Tübingen University equipped with turbulence instrumentation add the opportunity to study the interaction of the aerosol concentration with turbulent transport and exchange processes of the surface and the atmosphere. The combination of different flight patterns of the three RPAS allows new insights in atmospheric boundary layer processes. Currently, the different aerosol sensors are miniaturized at the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Leipzig and together with the TU Braunschweig adapted to fit into the RPAS. Moreover, an additional meteorological payload for measuring temperature, humidity and turbulence properties is constructed by Tübingen University. Two condensation particle counters determine the total aerosol number with a different lower detection threshold in order to investigate the horizontal and vertical aerosol variability and new particle formation (aerosol particles of some nm diameter. Further the aerosol size distribution in the range from about 0.300 to ~5 μm is given by an optical particle counter.
Bayesian analogy with relational transformations.
Lu, Hongjing; Chen, Dawn; Holyoak, Keith J
2012-07-01
How can humans acquire relational representations that enable analogical inference and other forms of high-level reasoning? Using comparative relations as a model domain, we explore the possibility that bottom-up learning mechanisms applied to objects coded as feature vectors can yield representations of relations sufficient to solve analogy problems. We introduce Bayesian analogy with relational transformations (BART) and apply the model to the task of learning first-order comparative relations (e.g., larger, smaller, fiercer, meeker) from a set of animal pairs. Inputs are coded by vectors of continuous-valued features, based either on human magnitude ratings, normed feature ratings (De Deyne et al., 2008), or outputs of the topics model (Griffiths, Steyvers, & Tenenbaum, 2007). Bootstrapping from empirical priors, the model is able to induce first-order relations represented as probabilistic weight distributions, even when given positive examples only. These learned representations allow classification of novel instantiations of the relations and yield a symbolic distance effect of the sort obtained with both humans and other primates. BART then transforms its learned weight distributions by importance-guided mapping, thereby placing distinct dimensions into correspondence. These transformed representations allow BART to reliably solve 4-term analogies (e.g., larger:smaller::fiercer:meeker), a type of reasoning that is arguably specific to humans. Our results provide a proof-of-concept that structured analogies can be solved with representations induced from unstructured feature vectors by mechanisms that operate in a largely bottom-up fashion. We discuss potential implications for algorithmic and neural models of relational thinking, as well as for the evolution of abstract thought. Copyright 2012 APA, all rights reserved.
Bayesian tomographic reconstruction of microsystems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Salem, Sofia Fekih; Vabre, Alexandre; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali
2007-01-01
The microtomography by X ray transmission plays an increasingly dominating role in the study and the understanding of microsystems. Within this framework, an experimental setup of high resolution X ray microtomography was developed at CEA-List to quantify the physical parameters related to the fluids flow in microsystems. Several difficulties rise from the nature of experimental data collected on this setup: enhanced error measurements due to various physical phenomena occurring during the image formation (diffusion, beam hardening), and specificities of the setup (limited angle, partial view of the object, weak contrast).To reconstruct the object we must solve an inverse problem. This inverse problem is known to be ill-posed. It therefore needs to be regularized by introducing prior information. The main prior information we account for is that the object is composed of a finite known number of different materials distributed in compact regions. This a priori information is introduced via a Gauss-Markov field for the contrast distributions with a hidden Potts-Markov field for the class materials in the Bayesian estimation framework. The computations are done by using an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique.In this paper, we present first the basic steps of the proposed algorithms. Then we focus on one of the main steps in any iterative reconstruction method which is the computation of forward and adjoint operators (projection and backprojection). A fast implementation of these two operators is crucial for the real application of the method. We give some details on the fast computation of these steps and show some preliminary results of simulations
Sulphur-rich volcanic eruptions and stratospheric aerosols
Rampino, M. R.; Self, S.
1984-01-01
Data from direct measurements of stratospheric optical depth, Greenland ice-core acidity, and volcanological studies are compared, and it is shown that relatively small but sulfur-rich volcanic eruptions can have atmospheric effects equal to or even greater than much larger sulfur-poor eruptions. These small eruptions are probably the most frequent cause of increased stratospheric aerosols. The possible sources of the excess sulfur released in these eruptions are discussed.
Aerosol-foam interaction experiments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ball, M.H.E.; Luscombe, C.DeM.; Mitchell, J.P.
1990-03-01
Foam treatment offers the potential to clean gas streams containing radioactive particles. A large decontamination factor has been claimed for the removal of airborne plutonium dust when spraying a commercially available foam on the walls and horizontal surfaces of an alpha-active room. Experiments have been designed and undertaken to reproduce these conditions with a non-radioactive simulant aerosol. Careful measurements of aerosol concentrations with and without foam treatment failed to provide convincing evidence to support the earlier observation. The foam may not have been as well mixed with the aerosol in the present studies. Further work is required to explore more efficient mixing methods, including systems in which the aerosol steam is passed through the foam, rather than merely spraying foam into the path of the aerosol. (author)
Objective Bayesianism and the Maximum Entropy Principle
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jon Williamson
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Objective Bayesian epistemology invokes three norms: the strengths of our beliefs should be probabilities; they should be calibrated to our evidence of physical probabilities; and they should otherwise equivocate sufficiently between the basic propositions that we can express. The three norms are sometimes explicated by appealing to the maximum entropy principle, which says that a belief function should be a probability function, from all those that are calibrated to evidence, that has maximum entropy. However, the three norms of objective Bayesianism are usually justified in different ways. In this paper, we show that the three norms can all be subsumed under a single justification in terms of minimising worst-case expected loss. This, in turn, is equivalent to maximising a generalised notion of entropy. We suggest that requiring language invariance, in addition to minimising worst-case expected loss, motivates maximisation of standard entropy as opposed to maximisation of other instances of generalised entropy. Our argument also provides a qualified justification for updating degrees of belief by Bayesian conditionalisation. However, conditional probabilities play a less central part in the objective Bayesian account than they do under the subjective view of Bayesianism, leading to a reduced role for Bayes’ Theorem.
A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.
Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan
2015-03-01
In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).
Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network
Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya
2018-03-01
Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.
Proceedings of the 1998 Scientific Conference on Obscuration and Aerosol Research
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Coverstone, Amy
1999-01-01
...: Aerosol Particle Generation and Dynamics, Aerosol Characterization Methods-Aerosol Samplers and Collectors, Preparing, Aerosolizing and Characterizing Erwinia Herbicola, and Optical Properties of Aerosols...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fermandjian, J.; Bunz, H.; Dunbar, I.; Gauvain, J.; Ricchena, R.
1986-01-01
The present study concerns a comparative exercise, performed within the framework of the Commission of the European Communities, of the computer codes (AEROSIM-M, UK; AEROSOLS/B1, France; CORRAL-2, CEC and NAUA Mod5, Germany) used in order to assess the aerosol behavior in the reactor containment building during severe core damage accidents in a PWR. Topics considered in this paper include aerosols, containment buildings, reactor safety, fission product release, reactor cores, meltdown, and monitoring
Atmospheric and aerosol chemistry
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
McNeill, V. Faye [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States). Dept. of Chemical Engineering; Ariya, Parisa A. (ed.) [McGill Univ. Montreal, QC (Canada). Dept. of Chemistry; McGill Univ. Montreal, QC (Canada). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
2014-09-01
This series presents critical reviews of the present position and future trends in modern chemical research. Short and concise reports on chemistry, each written by the world renowned experts. Still valid and useful after 5 or 10 years. More information as well as the electronic version of the whole content available at: springerlink.com. Christian George, Barbara D'Anna, Hartmut Herrmann, Christian Weller, Veronica Vaida, D. J. Donaldson, Thorsten Bartels-Rausch, Markus Ammann Emerging Areas in Atmospheric Photochemistry. Lisa Whalley, Daniel Stone, Dwayne Heard New Insights into the Tropospheric Oxidation of Isoprene: Combining Field Measurements, Laboratory Studies, Chemical Modelling and Quantum Theory. Neil M. Donahue, Allen L. Robinson, Erica R. Trump, Ilona Riipinen, Jesse H. Kroll Volatility and Aging of Atmospheric Organic Aerosol. P. A. Ariya, G. Kos, R. Mortazavi, E. D. Hudson, V. Kanthasamy, N. Eltouny, J. Sun, C. Wilde Bio-Organic Materials in the Atmosphere and Snow: Measurement and Characterization V. Faye McNeill, Neha Sareen, Allison N. Schwier Surface-Active Organics in Atmospheric Aerosols.
Atmospheric and aerosol chemistry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
McNeill, V. Faye; Ariya, Parisa A.; McGill Univ. Montreal, QC
2014-01-01
This series presents critical reviews of the present position and future trends in modern chemical research. Short and concise reports on chemistry, each written by the world renowned experts. Still valid and useful after 5 or 10 years. More information as well as the electronic version of the whole content available at: springerlink.com. Christian George, Barbara D'Anna, Hartmut Herrmann, Christian Weller, Veronica Vaida, D. J. Donaldson, Thorsten Bartels-Rausch, Markus Ammann Emerging Areas in Atmospheric Photochemistry. Lisa Whalley, Daniel Stone, Dwayne Heard New Insights into the Tropospheric Oxidation of Isoprene: Combining Field Measurements, Laboratory Studies, Chemical Modelling and Quantum Theory. Neil M. Donahue, Allen L. Robinson, Erica R. Trump, Ilona Riipinen, Jesse H. Kroll Volatility and Aging of Atmospheric Organic Aerosol. P. A. Ariya, G. Kos, R. Mortazavi, E. D. Hudson, V. Kanthasamy, N. Eltouny, J. Sun, C. Wilde Bio-Organic Materials in the Atmosphere and Snow: Measurement and Characterization V. Faye McNeill, Neha Sareen, Allison N. Schwier Surface-Active Organics in Atmospheric Aerosols.
Source term experiments project (STEP): aerosol characterization system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schlenger, B.J.; Dunn, P.F.
1985-01-01
A series of four experiments is being conducted at Argonne National Laboratory's TREAT Reactor. They have been designed to provide some of the necessary data regarding magnitude and release rates of fission products from degraded fuel pins, physical and chemical characteristics of released fission products, and aerosol formation and transport phenomena. These are in-pile experiments, whereby the test fuel is heated by neutron induced fission and subsequent clad oxidation in steam environments that simulate as closely as practical predicted reactor accident conditions. The test sequences cover a range of pressure and fuel heatup rate, and include the effect of Ag/In/Cd control rod material
Empirical Bayesian inference and model uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Poern, K.
1994-01-01
This paper presents a hierarchical or multistage empirical Bayesian approach for the estimation of uncertainty concerning the intensity of a homogeneous Poisson process. A class of contaminated gamma distributions is considered to describe the uncertainty concerning the intensity. These distributions in turn are defined through a set of secondary parameters, the knowledge of which is also described and updated via Bayes formula. This two-stage Bayesian approach is an example where the modeling uncertainty is treated in a comprehensive way. Each contaminated gamma distributions, represented by a point in the 3D space of secondary parameters, can be considered as a specific model of the uncertainty about the Poisson intensity. Then, by the empirical Bayesian method each individual model is assigned a posterior probability
Bayesian Inference Methods for Sparse Channel Estimation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Niels Lovmand
2013-01-01
This thesis deals with sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) with application to radio channel estimation. As opposed to the classical approach for sparse signal representation, we focus on the problem of inferring complex signals. Our investigations within SBL constitute the basis for the development...... of Bayesian inference algorithms for sparse channel estimation. Sparse inference methods aim at finding the sparse representation of a signal given in some overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors. Within this context, one of our main contributions to the field of SBL is a hierarchical representation...... analysis of the complex prior representation, where we show that the ability to induce sparse estimates of a given prior heavily depends on the inference method used and, interestingly, whether real or complex variables are inferred. We also show that the Bayesian estimators derived from the proposed...
Bayesian Methods for Radiation Detection and Dosimetry
Groer, Peter G
2002-01-01
We performed work in three areas: radiation detection, external and internal radiation dosimetry. In radiation detection we developed Bayesian techniques to estimate the net activity of high and low activity radioactive samples. These techniques have the advantage that the remaining uncertainty about the net activity is described by probability densities. Graphs of the densities show the uncertainty in pictorial form. Figure 1 below demonstrates this point. We applied stochastic processes for a method to obtain Bayesian estimates of 222Rn-daughter products from observed counting rates. In external radiation dosimetry we studied and developed Bayesian methods to estimate radiation doses to an individual with radiation induced chromosome aberrations. We analyzed chromosome aberrations after exposure to gammas and neutrons and developed a method for dose-estimation after criticality accidents. The research in internal radiation dosimetry focused on parameter estimation for compartmental models from observed comp...
Bayesian estimation of dose rate effectiveness
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Arnish, J.J.; Groer, P.G.
2000-01-01
A Bayesian statistical method was used to quantify the effectiveness of high dose rate 137 Cs gamma radiation at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice. The Bayesian approach considers both the temporal and dose dependence of radiation carcinogenesis and total mortality. This paper provides the first direct estimation of dose rate effectiveness using Bayesian statistics. This statistical approach provides a quantitative description of the uncertainty of the factor characterising the dose rate in terms of a probability density function. The results show that a fixed dose from 137 Cs gamma radiation delivered at a high dose rate is more effective at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice than the same dose delivered at a low dose rate. (author)
Lidar data assimilation for improved analyses of volcanic aerosol events
Lange, Anne Caroline; Elbern, Hendrik
2014-05-01
Observations of hazardous events with release of aerosols are hardly analyzable by today's data assimilation algorithms, without producing an attenuating bias. Skillful forecasts of unexpected aerosol events are essential for human health and to prevent an exposure of infirm persons and aircraft with possibly catastrophic outcome. Typical cases include mineral dust outbreaks, mostly from large desert regions, wild fires, and sea salt uplifts, while the focus aims for volcanic eruptions. In general, numerical chemistry and aerosol transport models cannot simulate such events without manual adjustments. The concept of data assimilation is able to correct the analysis, as long it is operationally implemented in the model system. Though, the tangent-linear approximation, which describes a substantial precondition for today's cutting edge data assimilation algorithms, is not valid during unexpected aerosol events. As part of the European COPERNICUS (earth observation) project MACC II and the national ESKP (Earth System Knowledge Platform) initiative, we developed a module that enables the assimilation of aerosol lidar observations, even during unforeseeable incidences of extreme emissions of particulate matter. Thereby, the influence of the background information has to be reduced adequately. Advanced lidar instruments comprise on the one hand the aspect of radiative transfer within the atmosphere and on the other hand they can deliver a detailed quantification of the detected aerosols. For the assimilation of maximal exploited lidar data, an appropriate lidar observation operator is constructed, compatible with the EURAD-IM (European Air Pollution and Dispersion - Inverse Model) system. The observation operator is able to map the modeled chemical and physical state on lidar attenuated backscatter, transmission, aerosol optical depth, as well as on the extinction and backscatter coefficients. Further, it has the ability to process the observed discrepancies with lidar
Aerosol pollution over Northern India and Bangladesh
2002-01-01
The skies over Northern India are filled with a thick soup of aerosol particles all along the southern edge of the Himalayan Mountains, and streaming southward over Bangladesh and the Bay of Bengal. Notice that the air over the Tibetan Plateau to the north of the Himalayas is very clear, whereas the view of the land surface south of the mountains is obstructed by the brownish haze. Most of this air pollution comes from human activities. The aerosol over this region is notoriously rich in sulfates, nitrates, organic and black carbon, and fly ash. These particles not only represent a health hazard to those people living in the region, but scientists have also recently found that they can have a significant impact on the region's hydrological cycle and climate (click to read the relevant NASA press release). This true-color image was acquired on December 4, 2001, by the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), flying aboard NASA's Terra satellite. It is interesting to compare the image above with this earlier MODIS image over the region, acquired on October 23, 2001. Notice the difference in the clarity of the air over the region in the earlier image. Under the thick plume of aerosol, the Brahmaputra (upper right) and Ganges Rivers are still visible. The many mouths of the Ganges have turned the northern waters of the Bay of Bengal a murky brown as they empty their sediment-laden waters into the bay. Toward the upper lefthand corner of the image, there appears to be a fresh swath of snow on the ground just south of the Himalayas.
A nonparametric Bayesian approach for genetic evaluation in ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
South African Journal of Animal Science ... the Bayesian and Classical models, a Bayesian procedure is provided which allows these random ... data from the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud and data from a simulation experiment are utilized. >
Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Lawson, Andrew
2013-01-01
.... Exploring these new developments, Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology, Second Edition provides an up-to-date, cohesive account of the full range of Bayesian disease mapping methods and applications...
Sparse reconstruction using distribution agnostic bayesian matching pursuit
Masood, Mudassir; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.
2013-01-01
A fast matching pursuit method using a Bayesian approach is introduced for sparse signal recovery. This method performs Bayesian estimates of sparse signals even when the signal prior is non-Gaussian or unknown. It is agnostic on signal statistics
The Bayesian Approach to Association
Arora, N. S.
2017-12-01
The Bayesian approach to Association focuses mainly on quantifying the physics of the domain. In the case of seismic association for instance let X be the set of all significant events (above some threshold) and their attributes, such as location, time, and magnitude, Y1 be the set of detections that are caused by significant events and their attributes such as seismic phase, arrival time, amplitude etc., Y2 be the set of detections that are not caused by significant events, and finally Y be the set of observed detections We would now define the joint distribution P(X, Y1, Y2, Y) = P(X) P(Y1 | X) P(Y2) I(Y = Y1 + Y2) ; where the last term simply states that Y1 and Y2 are a partitioning of Y. Given the above joint distribution the inference problem is simply to find the X, Y1, and Y2 that maximizes posterior probability P(X, Y1, Y2| Y) which reduces to maximizing P(X) P(Y1 | X) P(Y2) I(Y = Y1 + Y2). In this expression P(X) captures our prior belief about event locations. P(Y1 | X) captures notions of travel time, residual error distributions as well as detection and mis-detection probabilities. While P(Y2) captures the false detection rate of our seismic network. The elegance of this approach is that all of the assumptions are stated clearly in the model for P(X), P(Y1|X) and P(Y2). The implementation of the inference is merely a by-product of this model. In contrast some of the other methods such as GA hide a number of assumptions in the implementation details of the inference - such as the so called "driver cells." The other important aspect of this approach is that all seismic knowledge including knowledge from other domains such as infrasound and hydroacoustic can be included in the same model. So, we don't need to separately account for misdetections or merge seismic and infrasound events as a separate step. Finally, it should be noted that the objective of automatic association is to simplify the job of humans who are publishing seismic bulletins based on this
Bayesian uncertainty analyses of probabilistic risk models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pulkkinen, U.
1989-01-01
Applications of Bayesian principles to the uncertainty analyses are discussed in the paper. A short review of the most important uncertainties and their causes is provided. An application of the principle of maximum entropy to the determination of Bayesian prior distributions is described. An approach based on so called probabilistic structures is presented in order to develop a method of quantitative evaluation of modelling uncertainties. The method is applied to a small example case. Ideas for application areas for the proposed method are discussed
Justifying Objective Bayesianism on Predicate Languages
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jürgen Landes
2015-04-01
Full Text Available Objective Bayesianism says that the strengths of one’s beliefs ought to be probabilities, calibrated to physical probabilities insofar as one has evidence of them, and otherwise sufficiently equivocal. These norms of belief are often explicated using the maximum entropy principle. In this paper we investigate the extent to which one can provide a unified justification of the objective Bayesian norms in the case in which the background language is a first-order predicate language, with a view to applying the resulting formalism to inductive logic. We show that the maximum entropy principle can be motivated largely in terms of minimising worst-case expected loss.
Motion Learning Based on Bayesian Program Learning
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cheng Meng-Zhen
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The concept of virtual human has been highly anticipated since the 1980s. By using computer technology, Human motion simulation could generate authentic visual effect, which could cheat human eyes visually. Bayesian Program Learning train one or few motion data, generate new motion data by decomposing and combining. And the generated motion will be more realistic and natural than the traditional one.In this paper, Motion learning based on Bayesian program learning allows us to quickly generate new motion data, reduce workload, improve work efficiency, reduce the cost of motion capture, and improve the reusability of data.
Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten
2013-01-01
an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...
Length Scales in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adam Gh.
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Two conceptual developments in the Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature approach to the numerical solution of one-dimensional Riemann integrals [Gh. Adam, S. Adam, Springer LNCS 7125, 1–16 (2012] are reported. First, it is shown that the numerical quadrature which avoids the overcomputing and minimizes the hidden floating point loss of precision asks for the consideration of three classes of integration domain lengths endowed with specific quadrature sums: microscopic (trapezoidal rule, mesoscopic (Simpson rule, and macroscopic (quadrature sums of high algebraic degrees of precision. Second, sensitive diagnostic tools for the Bayesian inference on macroscopic ranges, coming from the use of Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature, are derived.
Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic risk assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Siu, Nathan O.; Kelly, Dana L.
1998-01-01
Bayesian statistical methods are widely used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) because of their ability to provide useful estimates of model parameters when data are sparse and because the subjective probability framework, from which these methods are derived, is a natural framework to address the decision problems motivating PRA. This paper presents a tutorial on Bayesian parameter estimation especially relevant to PRA. It summarizes the philosophy behind these methods, approaches for constructing likelihood functions and prior distributions, some simple but realistic examples, and a variety of cautions and lessons regarding practical applications. References are also provided for more in-depth coverage of various topics
Bayesian estimation and tracking a practical guide
Haug, Anton J
2012-01-01
A practical approach to estimating and tracking dynamic systems in real-worl applications Much of the literature on performing estimation for non-Gaussian systems is short on practical methodology, while Gaussian methods often lack a cohesive derivation. Bayesian Estimation and Tracking addresses the gap in the field on both accounts, providing readers with a comprehensive overview of methods for estimating both linear and nonlinear dynamic systems driven by Gaussian and non-Gaussian noices. Featuring a unified approach to Bayesian estimation and tracking, the book emphasizes the derivation
Preparatory studies for modelling steam condensation on soluble aerosols
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dunbar, I.H.
1988-01-01
Of the fission products which would be released from the core of an LWR in the event of a severe accident, only the noble gases and possibly some of the iodine (depending on chemical form) are likely not to be in the form of aerosols when they reach the containment building atmosphere. Therefore in order to predict the extent of fission product retention on containment building internal structures, one needs to have a good understanding of aerosol deposition processes and of the factors which affect them. Following a severe accident in an LWR, a major component of the containment atmosphere will be steam. If the thermodynamic conditions allow condensation of this steam, this condensation is most likely to occur on the aerosol particles. A major component of the aerosol formed during the in-vessel release following a severe reactor accident will be fission product caesium. It is believed that much of this will enter the containment in the form of the hydroxide which has a great affinity for water, so particle growth due to steam condensation is likely to be a very important mechanism for retaining radioactive caesium within the containment builing. The author provides a systematic review of the basic chemical and physical issues which must be addressed if the phenomena are to be modelled accurately, and gives recommendations on how computer models of condensation onto soluble aerosols should be constructed. He proposes also to perform a systematic review of the existing literature and to perform small-scale thermodynamic experiments wherever important gaps in the data base are discovered
Investigation of activity release during light water reactor core meltdown
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Albrecht, H.; Matschoss, V.; Wild, H.
1978-01-01
A test facility was developed for the determination of activity release and of aerosol characteristics under realistic light water reactor core melting conditions. It is composed of a high-frequency induction furnace, a ThO 2 crucible system, and a collection apparatus consisting of membrane and particulate filters. Thirty-gram samples of a representative core material mixture (corium) were melted under air, argon, or steam at 0.8 to 2.2 bar. In air at 2700 0 C, for example, the relative release was 0.4 to 0.7% for iron, chromium, and cobalt and 4 to 11% for tin, antimony, and manganese. Higher release values of 20 to 40% at lower temperatures (2150 0 C, air) were found for selenium, cadmium, tellurium, and cesium. The size distribution of the aerosol particles was trimodal with maxima at diameters of 0.17, 0.30, and 0.73 μm. The result of a qualitative x-ray microanalysis was that the main elements of the melt were contained in each aerosol particle. Further investigations will include larger melt masses and the additional influence of concrete on the release and aerosol behavior
The GRAPE aerosol retrieval algorithm
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. E. Thomas
2009-11-01
Full Text Available The aerosol component of the Oxford-Rutherford Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC combined cloud and aerosol retrieval scheme is described and the theoretical performance of the algorithm is analysed. ORAC is an optimal estimation retrieval scheme for deriving cloud and aerosol properties from measurements made by imaging satellite radiometers and, when applied to cloud free radiances, provides estimates of aerosol optical depth at a wavelength of 550 nm, aerosol effective radius and surface reflectance at 550 nm. The aerosol retrieval component of ORAC has several incarnations – this paper addresses the version which operates in conjunction with the cloud retrieval component of ORAC (described by Watts et al., 1998, as applied in producing the Global Retrieval of ATSR Cloud Parameters and Evaluation (GRAPE data-set.
The algorithm is described in detail and its performance examined. This includes a discussion of errors resulting from the formulation of the forward model, sensitivity of the retrieval to the measurements and a priori constraints, and errors resulting from assumptions made about the atmospheric/surface state.
Atmospheric dispersion of sodium aerosol due to a sodium leak in a fast breeder reactor complex
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Punitha, G.; Sudha, A. Jasmin; Kasinathan, N.; Rajan, M.
2008-01-01
Liquid sodium at high temperatures (470 K to 825 K) is used as the primary and secondary coolant in Liquid Metal cooled Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBR). In the event of a postulated sodium leak in the Steam Generator Building (SGB) of a LMFBR, sodium readily combusts in the ambient air, especially at temperatures above 523 K. Intense sodium fire results and sodium oxide fumes are released as sodium aerosols. Sodium oxides are readily converted to sodium hydroxide in air due to the presence of moisture in it. Hence, sodium aerosols are invariably in the form of particulate sodium hydroxide. These aerosols damage not only the equipment and instruments due to their corrosive nature but also pose health hazard to humans. Hence, it is essential to estimate the concentration of sodium aerosols within the plant boundary for a sodium leak event. The Gaussian Plume Dispersion Model can obtain the atmospheric dispersion of sodium aerosols in an open terrain. However, this model dose not give accurate results for dispersion in spaces close to the point of release and with buildings in between. The velocity field due to the wind is altered to a large extent by the intervening buildings and structures. Therefore, a detailed 3-D estimation of the velocity field and concentration has to be obtained through rigorous computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach. PHOENICS code has been employed to determine concentration of sodium aerosols at various distances from the point of release. The dispersion studies have been carried out for the release of sodium aerosols at different elevations from the ground and for different wind directions. (author)
A Fast Iterative Bayesian Inference Algorithm for Sparse Channel Estimation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Fleury, Bernard Henri
2013-01-01
representation of the Bessel K probability density function; a highly efficient, fast iterative Bayesian inference method is then applied to the proposed model. The resulting estimator outperforms other state-of-the-art Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimators, either by yielding lower mean squared estimation error...
A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis : Applications to Developmental Research
Van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A G
2014-01-01
Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,
A gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis : Applications to developmental research
van de Schoot, R.; Kaplan, D.; Denissen, J.J.A.; Asendorpf, J.B.; Neyer, F.J.; van Aken, M.A.G.
2014-01-01
Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,
A default Bayesian hypothesis test for ANOVA designs
Wetzels, R.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.; Wagenmakers, E.J.
2012-01-01
This article presents a Bayesian hypothesis test for analysis of variance (ANOVA) designs. The test is an application of standard Bayesian methods for variable selection in regression models. We illustrate the effect of various g-priors on the ANOVA hypothesis test. The Bayesian test for ANOVA
Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.
Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom
2013-02-01
Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.
Quantification of the release of inorganic elements from biofuels
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Frandsen, Flemming; van Lith, Simone Cornelia; Korbee, Rob
2007-01-01
-scale and pilot-scale fixed-bed release data. In conclusion, it is recommended to perform the described lab-scale tests in order to obtain reliable quantitative data on the release of inorganic elements under grate-firing or suspension-firing conditions. Advanced fuel characterization by use of chemical......, the results from the lab-scale fixed-bed release tests were compared to pilot-scale mass balance tests. While large differences were seen between the lab-scale release data and the release information obtained by the fuel characterization techniques, a good correlation was found between the lab...... elements are thermodynamically stable as a function of temperature. This information is needed for the interpretation of the lab-scale release data. Thus, for the purpose of modeling ash or aerosol formation, fuel characterization methods should be combined with lab-scale release measurements. Pilot...
Instrumentation for tropospheric aerosol characterization
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shi, Z.; Young, S.E.; Becker, C.H.; Coggiola, M.J. [SRI International, Menlo Park, CA (United States); Wollnik, H. [Giessen Univ. (Germany)
1997-12-31
A new instrument has been developed that determines the abundance, size distribution, and chemical composition of tropospheric and lower stratospheric aerosols with diameters down to 0.2 {mu}m. In addition to aerosol characterization, the instrument also monitors the chemical composition of the ambient gas. More than 25.000 aerosol particle mass spectra were recorded during the NASA-sponsored Subsonic Aircraft: Contrail and Cloud Effects Special Study (SUCCESS) field program using NASA`s DC-8 research aircraft. (author) 7 refs.
Instrumentation for tropospheric aerosol characterization
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shi, Z; Young, S E; Becker, C H; Coggiola, M J [SRI International, Menlo Park, CA (United States); Wollnik, H [Giessen Univ. (Germany)
1998-12-31
A new instrument has been developed that determines the abundance, size distribution, and chemical composition of tropospheric and lower stratospheric aerosols with diameters down to 0.2 {mu}m. In addition to aerosol characterization, the instrument also monitors the chemical composition of the ambient gas. More than 25.000 aerosol particle mass spectra were recorded during the NASA-sponsored Subsonic Aircraft: Contrail and Cloud Effects Special Study (SUCCESS) field program using NASA`s DC-8 research aircraft. (author) 7 refs.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kopka, P; Wawrzynczak, A; Borysiewicz, M
2015-01-01
In many areas of application, a central problem is a solution to the inverse problem, especially estimation of the unknown model parameters to model the underlying dynamics of a physical system precisely. In this situation, the Bayesian inference is a powerful tool to combine observed data with prior knowledge to gain the probability distribution of searched parameters. We have applied the modern methodology named Sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation (S-ABC) to the problem of tracing the atmospheric contaminant source. The ABC is technique commonly used in the Bayesian analysis of complex models and dynamic system. Sequential methods can significantly increase the efficiency of the ABC. In the presented algorithm, the input data are the on-line arriving concentrations of released substance registered by distributed sensor network from OVER-LAND ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION (OLAD) experiment. The algorithm output are the probability distributions of a contamination source parameters i.e. its particular location, release rate, speed and direction of the movement, start time and duration. The stochastic approach presented in this paper is completely general and can be used in other fields where the parameters of the model bet fitted to the observable data should be found. (paper)
Optical properties and source analysis of aerosols over a desert area in Dunhuang, Northwest china
Ma, Yongjing; Xin, Jinyuan; Ma, Yining; Kong, Lingbin; Zhang, Kequan; Zhang, Wenyu; Wang, Yuesi; Wang, Xiuqin; Zhu, Yongfeng
2017-08-01
Aerosol observational data for 2012 obtained from Dunhuang Station of CARE-China (Campaign on Atmospheric Aerosol Research Network of China) were analyzed to achieve in-depth knowledge of aerosol optical properties over Dunhuang region. The results showed that the annual average aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 500 nm was 0.32±0.06, and the Ångström exponent ( α) was 0.73 ± 0.27. Aerosol optical properties revealed significant seasonal characteristics. Frequent sandstorms in MAM (March-April-May) resulted in the seasonal maximum AOD, 0.41 ± 0.04, and a relatively smaller α value, 0.44±0.04. The tourism seasons, JJA (June-July-August) and SON (September-October-November) coincide with serious emissions of small anthropogenic aerosols. While in DJF (December-January-February), the composition of the atmosphere was a mixture of dust particles and polluted aerosols released by domestic heating; the average AOD and α were 0.29 ± 0.02 and 0.66 ± 0.17, respectively. Different air masses exhibited different degrees of influence on the aerosol concentration over Dunhuang in different seasons. During MAM, ranges of AOD (0.11-1.18) and α (0.06-0.82) were the largest under the dust influence of northwest-short-distance air mass in the four trajectories. Urban aerosols transported by northwest-short-distance air mass accounted for a very large proportion in JJA and the mixed aerosols observed in SON were mainly conveyed by air masses from the west. In DJF, the similar ranges of AOD and α under the three air mass demonstrated the analogous diffusion effects on regional pollutants over Dunhuang.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lerner, Chad A.; Rutagarama, Pierrot; Ahmad, Tanveer; Sundar, Isaac K.; Elder, Alison; Rahman, Irfan, E-mail: irfan_rahman@urmc.rochester.edu
2016-09-02
Oxidants or nanoparticles have recently been identified as constituents of aerosols released from various styles of electronic cigarettes (E-cigs). Cells in the lung may be directly exposed to these constituents and harbor reactive properties capable of incurring acute cell injury. Our results show mitochondria are sensitive to both E-cig aerosols and aerosol containing copper nanoparticles when exposed to human lung fibroblasts (HFL-1) using an Air-Liquid Interface culture system, evident by elevated levels of mitochondrial ROS (mtROS). Increased mtROS after aerosol exposure is associated with reduced stability of OxPhos electron transport chain (ETC) complex IV subunit and nuclear DNA fragmentation. Increased levels of IL-8 and IL-6 in HFL-1 conditioned media were also observed. These findings reveal both mitochondrial, genotoxic, and inflammatory stresses are features of direct cell exposure to E-cig aerosols which are ensued by inflammatory duress, raising a concern on deleterious effect of vaping. - Graphical abstract: Oxidants and possibly reactive properties of metal particles in E-cig aerosols impart mitochondrial oxidative stress and DNA damage. These biological effects accompany inflammatory response which may raise concern regarding long term E-cig use. Mitochondria may be particularly sensitive to reactive properties of E-cig aerosols in addition to the potential for them to induce genotoxic stress by generating increased ROS. - Highlights: • Mitochondria are sensitive to both E-cig aerosols and metal nanoparticles. • Increased mtROS by E-cig aerosol is associated with disrupted mitochondrial energy. • E-cig causes nuclear DNA fragmentation. • E-cig aerosols induce pro-inflammatory response in human fibroblasts.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lerner, Chad A.; Rutagarama, Pierrot; Ahmad, Tanveer; Sundar, Isaac K.; Elder, Alison; Rahman, Irfan
2016-01-01
Oxidants or nanoparticles have recently been identified as constituents of aerosols released from various styles of electronic cigarettes (E-cigs). Cells in the lung may be directly exposed to these constituents and harbor reactive properties capable of incurring acute cell injury. Our results show mitochondria are sensitive to both E-cig aerosols and aerosol containing copper nanoparticles when exposed to human lung fibroblasts (HFL-1) using an Air-Liquid Interface culture system, evident by elevated levels of mitochondrial ROS (mtROS). Increased mtROS after aerosol exposure is associated with reduced stability of OxPhos electron transport chain (ETC) complex IV subunit and nuclear DNA fragmentation. Increased levels of IL-8 and IL-6 in HFL-1 conditioned media were also observed. These findings reveal both mitochondrial, genotoxic, and inflammatory stresses are features of direct cell exposure to E-cig aerosols which are ensued by inflammatory duress, raising a concern on deleterious effect of vaping. - Graphical abstract: Oxidants and possibly reactive properties of metal particles in E-cig aerosols impart mitochondrial oxidative stress and DNA damage. These biological effects accompany inflammatory response which may raise concern regarding long term E-cig use. Mitochondria may be particularly sensitive to reactive properties of E-cig aerosols in addition to the potential for them to induce genotoxic stress by generating increased ROS. - Highlights: • Mitochondria are sensitive to both E-cig aerosols and metal nanoparticles. • Increased mtROS by E-cig aerosol is associated with disrupted mitochondrial energy. • E-cig causes nuclear DNA fragmentation. • E-cig aerosols induce pro-inflammatory response in human fibroblasts.
Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Robock, Alan [Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, 14 College Farm Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 (United States)
2015-03-30
The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, conducting climate model experiments with standard stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios, has found that insolation reduction could keep the global average temperature constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform; the tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without geoengineering. If geoengineering were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5–10 times the rates from gradual global warming. The prospect of geoengineering working may reduce the current drive toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and there are concerns about commercial or military control. Because geoengineering cannot safely address climate change, global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt are crucial to address anthropogenic global warming.
Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Robock, Alan
2015-01-01
The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, conducting climate model experiments with standard stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios, has found that insolation reduction could keep the global average temperature constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform; the tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without geoengineering. If geoengineering were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5–10 times the rates from gradual global warming. The prospect of geoengineering working may reduce the current drive toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and there are concerns about commercial or military control. Because geoengineering cannot safely address climate change, global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt are crucial to address anthropogenic global warming
Computational modeling and experimental characterization of indoor aerosol transport
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Konecni, Snezana; Whicker, Jeffrey J.; Martin, Richard A.
2002-01-01
When a hazardous aerosol or gas is inadvertently or deliberately released in an occupied facility, the airborne material presents a hazard to people. Inadvertent accidents and exposures continue to occur in Los Alamos and other nuclear facilities despite state-of-art engineering and administrative controls, and heightened diligence. Despite the obvious need in occupational settings and for homeland defense, the body of research in hazardous aerosol dispersion and control in large, complex, ventilated enclosures is extremely limited. The science governing generation, transport, inhalation, and detection of airborne hazards is lacking and must be developed to where it can be used by engineers or safety professionals in the prediction of worker exposure, in the prevention of accidents, or in the mitigation of terrorist actions. In this study, a commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code, CFX5.4, and experiments were used to assess flow field characteristics, and to investigate aerosol release and transport in a large, ventilated workroom in a facility at Savannah River Site. Steady state CFD results illustrating a complex, ventilation-induced, flow field with vortices, velocity gradients, and quiet zones are presented, as are time-dependent CFD and experimental aerosol dispersion results. The comparison of response times between CFD and experimental results was favorable. It is believed that future applications of CFD and experiments can have a favorable impact on the design of ventilation (HVAC) systems and worker safety with consideration to facility costs. Ultimately, statistical methods will be used in conjunction with CFD calculations to determine the optimal number and location of detectors, as well as optimal egress routes in event of a release.
Aerosol particle transport modeling for preclosure safety studies of nuclear waste repositories
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gelbard, F.
1989-01-01
An important concern for preclosure safety analysis of a nuclear waste repository is the potential release to the environment of respirable aerosol particles. Such particles, less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter, may have significant adverse health effects if inhaled. To assess the potential health effects of these particles, it is not sufficient to determine the mass fraction of respirable aerosol. The chemical composition of the particles is also of importance since different radionuclides may pose vastly different health hazards. Thus, models are needed to determine under normal and accident conditions the particle size and the chemical composition distributions of aerosol particles as a function of time and of position in the repository. In this work a multicomponent sectional aerosol model is used to determine the aerosol particle size and composition distributions in the repository. A range of aerosol mass releases with varying mean particle sizes and chemical compositions is used to demonstrate the sensitivities and uncertainties of the model. Decontamination factors for some locations in the repository are presented. 8 refs., 1 tab
Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Coefficient Alpha
Brannick, Michael T.; Zhang, Nanhua
2013-01-01
The current paper describes and illustrates a Bayesian approach to the meta-analysis of coefficient alpha. Alpha is the most commonly used estimate of the reliability or consistency (freedom from measurement error) for educational and psychological measures. The conventional approach to meta-analysis uses inverse variance weights to combine…
Bayesian decision theory : A simple toy problem
van Erp, H.R.N.; Linger, R.O.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.
2016-01-01
We give here a comparison of the expected outcome theory, the expected utility theory, and the Bayesian decision theory, by way of a simple numerical toy problem in which we look at the investment willingness to avert a high impact low probability event. It will be found that for this toy problem
Optimal Detection under the Restricted Bayesian Criterion
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shujun Liu
2017-07-01
Full Text Available This paper aims to find a suitable decision rule for a binary composite hypothesis-testing problem with a partial or coarse prior distribution. To alleviate the negative impact of the information uncertainty, a constraint is considered that the maximum conditional risk cannot be greater than a predefined value. Therefore, the objective of this paper becomes to find the optimal decision rule to minimize the Bayes risk under the constraint. By applying the Lagrange duality, the constrained optimization problem is transformed to an unconstrained optimization problem. In doing so, the restricted Bayesian decision rule is obtained as a classical Bayesian decision rule corresponding to a modified prior distribution. Based on this transformation, the optimal restricted Bayesian decision rule is analyzed and the corresponding algorithm is developed. Furthermore, the relation between the Bayes risk and the predefined value of the constraint is also discussed. The Bayes risk obtained via the restricted Bayesian decision rule is a strictly decreasing and convex function of the constraint on the maximum conditional risk. Finally, the numerical results including a detection example are presented and agree with the theoretical results.
Heuristics as Bayesian inference under extreme priors.
Parpart, Paula; Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C
2018-05-01
Simple heuristics are often regarded as tractable decision strategies because they ignore a great deal of information in the input data. One puzzle is why heuristics can outperform full-information models, such as linear regression, which make full use of the available information. These "less-is-more" effects, in which a relatively simpler model outperforms a more complex model, are prevalent throughout cognitive science, and are frequently argued to demonstrate an inherent advantage of simplifying computation or ignoring information. In contrast, we show at the computational level (where algorithmic restrictions are set aside) that it is never optimal to discard information. Through a formal Bayesian analysis, we prove that popular heuristics, such as tallying and take-the-best, are formally equivalent to Bayesian inference under the limit of infinitely strong priors. Varying the strength of the prior yields a continuum of Bayesian models with the heuristics at one end and ordinary regression at the other. Critically, intermediate models perform better across all our simulations, suggesting that down-weighting information with the appropriate prior is preferable to entirely ignoring it. Rather than because of their simplicity, our analyses suggest heuristics perform well because they implement strong priors that approximate the actual structure of the environment. We end by considering how new heuristics could be derived by infinitely strengthening the priors of other Bayesian models. These formal results have implications for work in psychology, machine learning and economics. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A strongly quasiconvex PAC-Bayesian bound
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thiemann, Niklas; Igel, Christian; Wintenberger, Olivier
2017-01-01
We propose a new PAC-Bayesian bound and a way of constructing a hypothesis space, so that the bound is convex in the posterior distribution and also convex in a trade-off parameter between empirical performance of the posterior distribution and its complexity. The complexity is measured by the Ku...
Multisnapshot Sparse Bayesian Learning for DOA
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gerstoft, Peter; Mecklenbrauker, Christoph F.; Xenaki, Angeliki
2016-01-01
The directions of arrival (DOA) of plane waves are estimated from multisnapshot sensor array data using sparse Bayesian learning (SBL). The prior for the source amplitudes is assumed independent zero-mean complex Gaussian distributed with hyperparameters, the unknown variances (i.e., the source...
Approximate Bayesian evaluations of measurement uncertainty
Possolo, Antonio; Bodnar, Olha
2018-04-01
The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) includes formulas that produce an estimate of a scalar output quantity that is a function of several input quantities, and an approximate evaluation of the associated standard uncertainty. This contribution presents approximate, Bayesian counterparts of those formulas for the case where the output quantity is a parameter of the joint probability distribution of the input quantities, also taking into account any information about the value of the output quantity available prior to measurement expressed in the form of a probability distribution on the set of possible values for the measurand. The approximate Bayesian estimates and uncertainty evaluations that we present have a long history and illustrious pedigree, and provide sufficiently accurate approximations in many applications, yet are very easy to implement in practice. Differently from exact Bayesian estimates, which involve either (analytical or numerical) integrations, or Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, the approximations that we describe involve only numerical optimization and simple algebra. Therefore, they make Bayesian methods widely accessible to metrologists. We illustrate the application of the proposed techniques in several instances of measurement: isotopic ratio of silver in a commercial silver nitrate; odds of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients; height of a manometer column; mass fraction of chromium in a reference material; and potential-difference in a Zener voltage standard.
Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting
Matthies, Hermann G.
2016-02-13
In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.
Error probabilities in default Bayesian hypothesis testing
Gu, Xin; Hoijtink, Herbert; Mulder, J,
2016-01-01
This paper investigates the classical type I and type II error probabilities of default Bayes factors for a Bayesian t test. Default Bayes factors quantify the relative evidence between the null hypothesis and the unrestricted alternative hypothesis without needing to specify prior distributions for
Bayesian Averaging is Well-Temperated
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Lars Kai
2000-01-01
Bayesian predictions are stochastic just like predictions of any other inference scheme that generalize from a finite sample. While a simple variational argument shows that Bayes averaging is generalization optimal given that the prior matches the teacher parameter distribution the situation is l...
Robust bayesian inference of generalized Pareto distribution ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
En utilisant une etude exhaustive de Monte Carlo, nous prouvons que, moyennant une fonction perte generalisee adequate, on peut construire un estimateur Bayesien robuste du modele. Key words: Bayesian estimation; Extreme value; Generalized Fisher information; Gener- alized Pareto distribution; Monte Carlo; ...
Evidence Estimation for Bayesian Partially Observed MRFs
Chen, Y.; Welling, M.
2013-01-01
Bayesian estimation in Markov random fields is very hard due to the intractability of the partition function. The introduction of hidden units makes the situation even worse due to the presence of potentially very many modes in the posterior distribution. For the first time we propose a
Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting
Matthies, Hermann G.; Zander, Elmar; Rosić, Bojana V.; Litvinenko, Alexander; Pajonk, Oliver
2016-01-01
In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.
A Bayesian perspective on some replacement strategies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mazzuchi, Thomas A.; Soyer, Refik
1996-01-01
In this paper we present a Bayesian decision theoretic approach for determining optimal replacement strategies. This approach enables us to formally incorporate, express, and update our uncertainty when determining optimal replacement strategies. We develop relevant expressions for both the block replacement protocol with minimal repair and the age replacement protocol and illustrate the use of our approach with real data
Comparison between Fisherian and Bayesian approach to ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
... of its simplicity and optimality properties is normally used for two group cases. However, Bayesian approach is found to be better than Fisher's approach because of its low misclassification error rate. Keywords: variance-covariance matrices, centroids, prior probability, mahalanobis distance, probability of misclassification ...
BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255 (United States); Coc, A. [Centre de Sciences Nucléaires et de Sciences de la Matière (CSNSM), CNRS/IN2P3, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris–Saclay, Bâtiment 104, F-91405 Orsay Campus (France); Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S., E-mail: iliadis@unc.edu [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1504 (United States)
2016-11-01
The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.
Non-Linear Approximation of Bayesian Update
Litvinenko, Alexander
2016-01-01
We develop a non-linear approximation of expensive Bayesian formula. This non-linear approximation is applied directly to Polynomial Chaos Coefficients. In this way, we avoid Monte Carlo sampling and sampling error. We can show that the famous Kalman Update formula is a particular case of this update.
Comprehension and computation in Bayesian problem solving
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eric D. Johnson
2015-07-01
Full Text Available Humans have long been characterized as poor probabilistic reasoners when presented with explicit numerical information. Bayesian word problems provide a well-known example of this, where even highly educated and cognitively skilled individuals fail to adhere to mathematical norms. It is widely agreed that natural frequencies can facilitate Bayesian reasoning relative to normalized formats (e.g. probabilities, percentages, both by clarifying logical set-subset relations and by simplifying numerical calculations. Nevertheless, between-study performance on transparent Bayesian problems varies widely, and generally remains rather unimpressive. We suggest there has been an over-focus on this representational facilitator (i.e. transparent problem structures at the expense of the specific logical and numerical processing requirements and the corresponding individual abilities and skills necessary for providing Bayesian-like output given specific verbal and numerical input. We further suggest that understanding this task-individual pair could benefit from considerations from the literature on mathematical cognition, which emphasizes text comprehension and problem solving, along with contributions of online executive working memory, metacognitive regulation, and relevant stored knowledge and skills. We conclude by offering avenues for future research aimed at identifying the stages in problem solving at which correct versus incorrect reasoners depart, and how individual difference might influence this time point.
A Bayesian Approach to Interactive Retrieval
Tague, Jean M.
1973-01-01
A probabilistic model for interactive retrieval is presented. Bayesian statistical decision theory principles are applied: use of prior and sample information about the relationship of document descriptions to query relevance; maximization of expected value of a utility function, to the problem of optimally restructuring search strategies in an…
Encoding dependence in Bayesian causal networks
Bayesian networks (BNs) represent complex, uncertain spatio-temporal dynamics by propagation of conditional probabilities between identifiable states with a testable causal interaction model. Typically, they assume random variables are discrete in time and space with a static network structure that ...
Forecasting nuclear power supply with Bayesian autoregression
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Beck, R.; Solow, J.L.
1994-01-01
We explore the possibility of forecasting the quarterly US generation of electricity from nuclear power using a Bayesian autoregression model. In terms of forecasting accuracy, this approach compares favorably with both the Department of Energy's current forecasting methodology and their more recent efforts using ARIMA models, and it is extremely easy and inexpensive to implement. (author)
A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Factor Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Piatek, Rémi; Papaspiliopoulos, Omiros
2018-01-01
This paper introduces a new approach for the inference of non-Gaussian factor models based on Bayesian nonparametric methods. It relaxes the usual normality assumption on the latent factors, widely used in practice, which is too restrictive in many settings. Our approach, on the contrary, does no...
Hierarchical Bayesian Models of Subtask Learning
Anglim, Jeromy; Wynton, Sarah K. A.
2015-01-01
The current study used Bayesian hierarchical methods to challenge and extend previous work on subtask learning consistency. A general model of individual-level subtask learning was proposed focusing on power and exponential functions with constraints to test for inconsistency. To study subtask learning, we developed a novel computer-based booking…
Non-Linear Approximation of Bayesian Update
Litvinenko, Alexander
2016-06-23
We develop a non-linear approximation of expensive Bayesian formula. This non-linear approximation is applied directly to Polynomial Chaos Coefficients. In this way, we avoid Monte Carlo sampling and sampling error. We can show that the famous Kalman Update formula is a particular case of this update.
Bayesian approach and application to operation safety
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Procaccia, H.; Suhner, M.Ch.
2003-01-01
The management of industrial risks requires the development of statistical and probabilistic analyses which use all the available convenient information in order to compensate the insufficient experience feedback in a domain where accidents and incidents remain too scarce to perform a classical statistical frequency analysis. The Bayesian decision approach is well adapted to this problem because it integrates both the expertise and the experience feedback. The domain of knowledge is widen, the forecasting study becomes possible and the decisions-remedial actions are strengthen thanks to risk-cost-benefit optimization analyzes. This book presents the bases of the Bayesian approach and its concrete applications in various industrial domains. After a mathematical presentation of the industrial operation safety concepts and of the Bayesian approach principles, this book treats of some of the problems that can be solved thanks to this approach: softwares reliability, controls linked with the equipments warranty, dynamical updating of databases, expertise modeling and weighting, Bayesian optimization in the domains of maintenance, quality control, tests and design of new equipments. A synthesis of the mathematical formulae used in this approach is given in conclusion. (J.S.)
Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C
2011-08-01
The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls
OMI/Aura Near UV Aerosol Optical Depth and Single Scattering Albedo 1-orbit L2 Swath 13x24 km V003
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The OMI/Aura level-2 near UV Aerosol data product 'OMAERUV', recently re-processed using an enhanced algorithm, is now released (April 2012) to the public. The data...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The OMI/Aura level-2 near UV Aerosol data product 'OMAERUV', recently re-processed using an enhanced algorithm, is now released (April 2012) to the public. The data...
Aerosol nucleation and growth in the TTL, due to tropical convection, during the ACTIVE campaign
Waddicor, D.; Vaughan, G.; Choularton, T.
2009-04-01
much reduced aerosol number concentration in cloud. The high aerosol (cloud free) areas would appear after the cloud began to evaporate through the process of aerosol nucleation. The evaporating cloud particles and reduced cloud surface area would allow aerosol nucleation to occur - typically involving sulphuric acid and water, released from ice crystals. The time scales for the particle production have also been investigated using satellite and wind projections/ECMWF back trajectories.
Aerosol Size Distributions In Auckland.
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Coulson, G.; Olivares, G.; Talbot, Nicholas
2016-01-01
Roč. 50, č. 1 (2016), s. 23-28 E-ISSN 1836-5876 Institutional support: RVO:67985858 Keywords : aerosol size distribution * particle number concentration * roadside Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry
Aerosol Inlet Characterization Experiment Report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bullard, Robert L. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Kuang, Chongai [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Uin, Janek [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Smith, Scott [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Springston, Stephen R. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)
2017-05-01
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility Aerosol Observation System inlet stack was characterized for particle penetration efficiency from 10 nm to 20 μm in diameter using duplicate scanning mobility particle sizers (10 nm-450 nm), ultra-high-sensitivity aerosol spectrometers (60 nm-μm), and aerodynamic particle sizers (0.5 μm-20 μm). Results show good model-measurement agreement and unit transmission efficiency of aerosols from 10 nm to 4 μm in diameter. Large uncertainties in the measured transmission efficiency exist above 4 μm due to low ambient aerosol signal in that size range.
Redemann, J.; Livingston, J.; Shinozuka, Y.; Kacenelenbogen, M.; Russell, P.; LeBlanc, S.; Vaughan, M.; Ferrare, R.; Hostetler, C.; Rogers, R.;
2014-01-01
We have developed a technique for combining CALIOP aerosol backscatter, MODIS spectral AOD (aerosol optical depth), and OMI AAOD (absorption aerosol optical depth) retrievals for the purpose of estimating full spectral sets of aerosol radiative properties, and ultimately for calculating the 3-D distribution of direct aerosol radiative forcing. We present results using one year of data collected in 2007 and show comparisons of the aerosol radiative property estimates to collocated AERONET retrievals. Use of the recently released MODIS Collection 6 data for aerosol optical depths derived with the dark target and deep blue algorithms has extended the coverage of the multi-sensor estimates towards higher latitudes. We compare the spatio-temporal distribution of our multi-sensor aerosol retrievals and calculations of seasonal clear-sky aerosol radiative forcing based on the aerosol retrievals to values derived from four models that participated in the latest AeroCom model intercomparison initiative. We find significant inter-model differences, in particular for the aerosol single scattering albedo, which can be evaluated using the multi-sensor A-Train retrievals. We discuss the major challenges that exist in extending our clear-sky results to all-sky conditions. On the basis of comparisons to suborbital measurements, we present some of the limitations of the MODIS and CALIOP retrievals in the presence of adjacent or underlying clouds. Strategies for meeting these challenges are discussed.
Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing from Combined A-Train Observations - Preliminary Comparisons with AeroCom Models and Pathways to Observationally Based All-sky Estimates
Redemann, J.; Livingston, J. M.; Shinozuka, Y.; Kacenelenbogen, M. S.; Russell, P. B.; LeBlanc, S. E.; Vaughan, M.; Ferrare, R. A.; Hostetler, C. A.; Rogers, R. R.; Burton, S. P.; Torres, O.; Remer, L. A.; Stier, P.; Schutgens, N.
2014-12-01
We describe a technique for combining CALIOP aerosol backscatter, MODIS spectral AOD (aerosol optical depth), and OMI AAOD (absorption aerosol optical depth) retrievals for the purpose of estimating full spectral sets of aerosol radiative properties, and ultimately for calculating the 3-D distribution of direct aerosol radiative forcing. We present results using one year of data collected in 2007 and show comparisons of the aerosol radiative property estimates to collocated AERONET retrievals. Use of the recently released MODIS Collection 6 data for aerosol optical depths derived with the dark target and deep blue algorithms has extended the coverage of the multi-sensor estimates towards higher latitudes. Initial calculations of seasonal clear-sky aerosol radiative forcing based on our multi-sensor aerosol retrievals compare well with over-ocean and top of the atmosphere IPCC-2007 model-based results, and with more recent assessments in the "Climate Change Science Program Report: Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts" (2009). For the first time, we present comparisons of our multi-sensor aerosol direct radiative forcing estimates to values derived from a subset of models that participated in the latest AeroCom initiative. We discuss the major challenges that exist in extending our clear-sky results to all-sky conditions. On the basis of comparisons to suborbital measurements, we present some of the limitations of the MODIS and CALIOP retrievals in the presence of adjacent or underlying clouds. Strategies for meeting these challenges are discussed.
Mechanics of aerosols in nuclear reactor safety: a review
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Loyalka, S.K.
1983-01-01
Although the estimated public risks from nuclear reactors are not high, a significant fraction of these arises from the accident sequences that lead to severe core damage. Calculation of release fractions of the core radioactive inventories for such accidents requires an understanding of the evolution of aerosols in primary coolant systems and reactor containment. The state-of-the-art in the mechanics of a single aerosol particle is reviewed and available work on coagulation of two aerosol particles is discussed. Progress in kinetic theory descriptions and experimental works is described and directions of future work are noted. The General Dynamic Equation for the aerosol distribution is considered, and several forms of this for conditions of interest are noted. Methods of solution that are discussed include analytical techniques, similarity transforms, moments methods and numerical techniques. Computer programs that have been developed in the past few years are also discussed, and their capabilities and limitations are noted. Finally, the comparison of computed results with the available experimental data is discussed, and needs for future research are emphasized. (author)
Dissecting Future Aerosol Emissions. Warming Tendencies and Mitigation Opportunities
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Streets, D.G. [Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Argonne, IL, 60439 (United States)
2007-04-15
Future global emissions of aerosols will play an important role in governing the nature and magnitude of future anthropogenic climate change. We present in this paper a number of future scenarios of emissions of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) by world region, which we combine with sulfate (SO4) assessed in terms of the emissions of its precursor, SO2. We find that aerosol emissions from the household and industrial sectors are likely to decline along almost all future pathways. Transportation emissions, however, are subject to complex interacting forces that can lead to either increases or decreases. Biomass burning declines in many scenarios, but the Amazon rainforests remain vulnerable if unsustainable economic growth persists. East Asia is the key region for primary aerosols, and trends in China will have a major bearing on the direction and magnitude of releases of BC (expected reductions in the range of 640-1290 Gg), OC (reductions of 520-1900 Gg), and SO2 (ranging from an increase of 21 Tg to a reduction of 30 Tg). Analysis of joint BC, OC, and SO2 emission changes identifies a number of key world regions and economic sectors that could be effectively targeted for aerosol reductions.
Black carbon aerosols and the third polar ice cap
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Menon, Surabi; Koch, Dorothy; Beig, Gufran; Sahu, Saroj; Fasullo, John; Orlikowski, Daniel
2010-04-15
Recent thinning of glaciers over the Himalayas (sometimes referred to as the third polar region) have raised concern on future water supplies since these glaciers supply water to large river systems that support millions of people inhabiting the surrounding areas. Black carbon (BC) aerosols, released from incomplete combustion, have been increasingly implicated as causing large changes in the hydrology and radiative forcing over Asia and its deposition on snow is thought to increase snow melt. In India BC emissions from biofuel combustion is highly prevalent and compared to other regions, BC aerosol amounts are high. Here, we quantify the impact of BC aerosols on snow cover and precipitation from 1990 to 2010 over the Indian subcontinental region using two different BC emission inventories. New estimates indicate that Indian BC emissions from coal and biofuel are large and transport is expected to expand rapidly in coming years. We show that over the Himalayas, from 1990 to 2000, simulated snow/ice cover decreases by {approx}0.9% due to aerosols. The contribution of the enhanced Indian BC to this decline is {approx}36%, similar to that simulated for 2000 to 2010. Spatial patterns of modeled changes in snow cover and precipitation are similar to observations (from 1990 to 2000), and are mainly obtained with the newer BC estimates.
Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniel Sánchez-Taltavull
Full Text Available Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities' measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low-especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities' signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset.
Optimal delivery of aerosols to infants during mechanical ventilation.
Longest, P Worth; Azimi, Mandana; Hindle, Michael
2014-10-01
The objective of this study was to determine optimal aerosol delivery conditions for a full-term (3.6 kg) infant receiving invasive mechanical ventilation by evaluating the effects of aerosol particle size, a new wye connector, and timing of aerosol delivery. In vitro experiments used a vibrating mesh nebulizer and evaluated drug deposition fraction and emitted dose through ventilation circuits containing either a commercial (CM) or new streamlined (SL) wye connector and 3-mm endotracheal tube (ETT) for aerosols with mass median aerodynamic diameters of 880 nm, 1.78 μm, and 4.9 μm. The aerosol was released into the circuit either over the full inhalation cycle (T1 delivery) or over the first half of inhalation (T2 delivery). Validated computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations and whole-lung model predictions were used to assess lung deposition and exhaled dose during cyclic ventilation. In vitro experiments at a steady-state tracheal flow rate of 5 L/min resulted in 80-90% transmission of the 880-nm and 1.78-μm aerosols from the ETT. Based on CFD simulations with cyclic ventilation, the SL wye design reduced depositional losses in the wye by a factor of approximately 2-4 and improved lung delivery efficiencies by a factor of approximately 2 compared with the CM device. Delivery of the aerosol over the first half of the inspiratory cycle (T2) reduced exhaled dose from the ventilation circuit by a factor of 4 compared with T1 delivery. Optimal lung deposition was achieved with the SL wye connector and T2 delivery, resulting in 45% and 60% lung deposition for optimal polydisperse (∼1.78 μm) and monodisperse (∼2.5 μm) particle sizes, respectively. Optimization of selected factors and use of a new SL wye connector can substantially increase the lung delivery efficiency of medical aerosols to infants from current values of <1-10% to a range of 45-60%.
Unraveling different chemical fingerprints between a champagne wine and its aerosols.
Liger-Belair, Gérard; Cilindre, Clara; Gougeon, Régis D; Lucio, Marianna; Gebefügi, Istvan; Jeandet, Philippe; Schmitt-Kopplin, Philippe
2009-09-29
As champagne or sparkling wine is poured into a glass, the myriad of ascending bubbles collapse and radiate a multitude of tiny droplets above the free surface into the form of very characteristic and refreshing aerosols. Ultrahigh-resolution MS was used as a nontargeted approach to discriminate hundreds of surface active compounds that are preferentially partitioning in champagne aerosols; thus, unraveling different chemical fingerprints between the champagne bulk and its aerosols. Based on accurate exact mass analysis and database search, tens of these compounds overconcentrating in champagne aerosols were unambiguously discriminated and assigned to compounds showing organoleptic interest or being aromas precursors. By drawing a parallel between the fizz of the ocean and the fizz in Champagne wines, our results closely link bursting bubbles and flavor release; thus, supporting the idea that rising and collapsing bubbles act as a continuous paternoster lift for aromas in every glass of champagne.
Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, Jr, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J [University of Washington, Seattle, WA (USA). Inst. for Environmental Studies, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences
1992-01-24
Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of short wavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square metre, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes. 73 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.
Satellite Remote Sensing: Aerosol Measurements
Kahn, Ralph A.
2013-01-01
Aerosols are solid or liquid particles suspended in the air, and those observed by satellite remote sensing are typically between about 0.05 and 10 microns in size. (Note that in traditional aerosol science, the term "aerosol" refers to both the particles and the medium in which they reside, whereas for remote sensing, the term commonly refers to the particles only. In this article, we adopt the remote-sensing definition.) They originate from a great diversity of sources, such as wildfires, volcanoes, soils and desert sands, breaking waves, natural biological activity, agricultural burning, cement production, and fossil fuel combustion. They typically remain in the atmosphere from several days to a week or more, and some travel great distances before returning to Earth's surface via gravitational settling or washout by precipitation. Many aerosol sources exhibit strong seasonal variability, and most experience inter-annual fluctuations. As such, the frequent, global coverage that space-based aerosol remote-sensing instruments can provide is making increasingly important contributions to regional and larger-scale aerosol studies.
Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols.
Charlson, R J; Schwartz, S E; Hales, J M; Cess, R D; Coakley, J A; Hansen, J E; Hofmann, D J
1992-01-24
Although long considered to be of marginal importance to global climate change, tropospheric aerosol contributes substantially to radiative forcing, and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in particular has imposed a major perturbation to this forcing. Both the direct scattering of shortwavelength solar radiation and the modification of the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by sulfate aerosol particles increase planetary albedo, thereby exerting a cooling influence on the planet. Current climate forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate is estimated to be -1 to -2 watts per square meter, globally averaged. This perturbation is comparable in magnitude to current anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing but opposite in sign. Thus, the aerosol forcing has likely offset global greenhouse warming to a substantial degree. However, differences in geographical and seasonal distributions of these forcings preclude any simple compensation. Aerosol effects must be taken into account in evaluating anthropogenic influences on past, current, and projected future climate and in formulating policy regarding controls on emission of greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide. Resolution of such policy issues requires integrated research on the magnitude and geographical distribution of aerosol climate forcing and on the controlling chemical and physical processes.
Comparison of sodium aerosol codes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dunbar, I.H.; Fermandjian, J.; Bunz, H.; L'homme, A.; Lhiaubet, G.; Himeno, Y.; Kirby, C.R.; Mitsutsuka, N.
1984-01-01
Although hypothetical fast reactor accidents leading to severe core damage are very low probability events, their consequences are to be assessed. During such accidents, one can envisage the ejection of sodium, mixed with fuel and fission products, from the primary circuit into the secondary containment. Aerosols can be formed either by mechanical dispersion of the molten material or as a result of combustion of the sodium in the mixture. Therefore considerable effort has been devoted to study the different sodium aerosol phenomena. To ensure that the problems of describing the physical behaviour of sodium aerosols were adequately understood, a comparison of the codes being developed to describe their behaviour was undertaken. The comparison consists of two parts. The first is a comparative study of the computer codes used to predict aerosol behaviour during a hypothetical accident. It is a critical review of documentation available. The second part is an exercise in which code users have run their own codes with a pre-arranged input. For the critical comparative review of the computer models, documentation has been made available on the following codes: AEROSIM (UK), MAEROS (USA), HAARM-3 (USA), AEROSOLS/A2 (France), AEROSOLS/B1 (France), and PARDISEKO-IIIb (FRG)
Aerosol generation and delivery in medical applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soni, P.S.; Raghunath, B.
1998-01-01
It is well established that radioaerosol lung technique by inhalation is a very versatile technique in the evaluation of health effects and medical diagnostic applications, especially to detect chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, their defence mechanism permeability and many others. Most important part of aerosol technology is to generate reproducibly stable diagnostic radioaerosols of known characteristics. Many compressed air atomisers are commercially available for generating aerosols but they have limited utility in aerosol inhalation, either because of large droplet size, low aerosol output or high airflow rates. There is clearly a need for a versatile and economical aerosol generation/inhalation system that can produce dry labelled aerosol particles with high deep lung delivery efficiency suitable for clinical studies. BARC (Bhabha Atomic Research Centre) has developed a dry aerosol generation/delivery system which operates on compressed air and generates dry polydisperse aerosols. This system is described along with an assessment of the aerosol characteristics and efficiency for diagnosis of various respiratory disorders
Devices and methods for generating an aerosol
Bisetti, Fabrizio
2016-03-03
Aerosol generators and methods of generating aerosols are provided. The aerosol can be generated at a stagnation interface between a hot, wet stream and a cold, dry stream. The aerosol has the benefit that the properties of the aerosol can be precisely controlled. The stagnation interface can be generated, for example, by the opposed flow of the hot stream and the cold stream. The aerosol generator and the aerosol generation methods are capable of producing aerosols with precise particle sizes and a narrow size distribution. The properties of the aerosol can be controlled by controlling one or more of the stream temperatures, the saturation level of the hot stream, and the flow times of the streams.
Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Version 3 Aerosol Optical Depth and Inversion Products
Giles, D. M.; Holben, B. N.; Eck, T. F.; Smirnov, A.; Sinyuk, A.; Schafer, J.; Sorokin, M. G.; Slutsker, I.
2017-12-01
The Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) surface-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) database has been a principal component of many Earth science remote sensing applications and modelling for more than two decades. During this time, the AERONET AOD database had utilized a semiautomatic quality assurance approach (Smirnov et al., 2000). Data quality automation developed for AERONET Version 3 (V3) was achieved by augmenting and improving upon the combination of Version 2 (V2) automatic and manual procedures to provide a more refined near real time (NRT) and historical worldwide database of AOD. The combined effect of these new changes provides a historical V3 AOD Level 2.0 data set comparable to V2 Level 2.0 AOD. The recently released V3 Level 2.0 AOD product uses Level 1.5 data with automated cloud screening and quality controls and applies pre-field and post-field calibrations and wavelength-dependent temperature characterizations. For V3, the AERONET aerosol retrieval code inverts AOD and almucantar sky radiances using a full vector radiative transfer called Successive ORDers of scattering (SORD; Korkin et al., 2017). The full vector code allows for potentially improving the real part of the complex index of refraction and the sphericity parameter and computing the radiation field in the UV (e.g., 380nm) and degree of linear depolarization. Effective lidar ratio and depolarization ratio products are also available with the V3 inversion release. Inputs to the inversion code were updated to the accommodate H2O, O3 and NO2 absorption to be consistent with the computation of V3 AOD. All of the inversion products are associated with estimated uncertainties that include the random error plus biases due to the uncertainty in measured AOD, absolute sky radiance calibration, and retrieved MODIS BRDF for snow-free and snow covered surfaces. The V3 inversion products use the same data quality assurance criteria as V2 inversions (Holben et al. 2006). The entire AERONET V3
How important is organic aerosol hygroscopicity to aerosol indirect forcing?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu Xiaohong; Wang Jian
2010-01-01
Organics are among the most abundant aerosol components in the atmosphere. However, there are still large uncertainties with emissions of primary organic aerosol (POA) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) (precursor gases of secondary organic aerosol, SOA), formation of SOA, and chemical and physical properties (e.g., hygroscopicity) of POA and SOA. All these may have significant impacts on aerosol direct and indirect forcing estimated from global models. In this study a modal aerosol module (MAM) in the NCAR community atmospheric model (CAM) is used to examine sensitivities of aerosol indirect forcing to hygroscopicity (represented by a single parameter 'κ' ) of POA and SOA. Our model simulation indicates that in the present-day (PD) condition changing the 'κ' value of POA from 0 to 0.1 increases the number concentration of cloud condensational nuclei (CCN) at supersaturation S = 0.1% by 40-80% over the POA source regions, while changing the 'κ' value of SOA by ± 50% (from 0.14 to 0.07 and 0.21) changes the CCN concentration within 40%. There are disproportionally larger changes in CCN concentration in the pre-industrial (PI) condition. Due to the stronger impact of organics hygroscopicity on CCN and cloud droplet number concentration at PI condition, global annual mean anthropogenic aerosol indirect forcing (AIF) between PD and PI conditions reduces with the increase of the hygroscopicity of organics. Global annual mean AIF varies by 0.4 W m -2 in the sensitivity runs with the control run of - 1.3 W m -2 , highlighting the need for improved understanding of organics hygroscopicity and its representation in global models.
Optical and Chemical Characterization of Aerosols Produced from Cooked Meats
Niedziela, R. F.; Foreman, E.; Blanc, L. E.
2011-12-01
Cooking processes can release a variety compounds into the air immediately above a cooking surface. The distribution of compounds will largely depend on the type of food that is being processed and the temperatures at which the food is prepared. High temperatures release compounds from foods like meats and carry them away from the preparation surface into cooler regions where condensation into particles can occur. Aerosols formed in this manner can impact air quality, particularly in urban areas where the amount of food preparation is high. Reported here are the results of laboratory experiments designed to optically and chemically characterize aerosols derived from cooking several types of meats including ground beef, salmon, chicken, and pork both in an inert atmosphere and in synthetic air. The laboratory-generated aerosols are studied using a laminar flow cell that is configured to accommodate simultaneous optical characterization in the mid-infrared and collection of particles for subsequent chemical analysis by gas chromatography. Preliminary optical results in the visible and ultra-violet will also be presented.
Release of Streptomyces albus propagules from contaminated surfaces
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gorny, R.L.; Mainelis, Gediminas; Grinshpun, Sergey A.; Willeke, Klaus; Dutkiewicz, Jacek; Reponen, Tiina
2003-01-01
The release of Streptomyces albus propagules from contaminated agar an ceiling tile surfaces was studied under controlled environmental condition in a newly developed aerosolization chamber. The experiments revealed tha both spores and cell fragments can be simultaneously released from the colonized surface by relatively gentle air currents of 0.3 m s -1 . A 100x increase of the air velocity can result in a 50-fold increase in the number of released propagules. The aerosolization rate depends strongly on the typ and roughness of the contaminated surface. Up to 90% of available actinomycete propagules can become airborne during the first 10 min of th release process. Application of vibration to the surface did not reveal an influence on the aerosolization process of S. albus propagules under th tested conditions. This study has shown that propagules in the fine particle size range can be released in large amounts from contaminated surfaces Measurement of the number of S. albus fragments in the vicinity of contaminated area, as an alternative to conventional air or surface sampling appears to be a promising approach for quantitative exposure assessment
Measurement of the deposition of aerosol particles to skin, hair and clothing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bell, K.F.
1999-01-01
In the event of a nuclear accident, there are several routes whereby human populations may receive a radioactive dose from material released to the environment. The dose from radioactive aerosol deposited onto the surfaces of the human body has previously been estimated by assuming that aerosol deposition velocities (defined as the flux of aerosol onto a surface divided by the aerosol concentration above the surface) onto human body surfaces are similar to the values for inanimate surfaces. However, Jones (1990) modelled the effects on health of fallout material deposited on skin and clothing and found that the number of early deaths from skin dose was sensitively dependent on aerosol deposition velocity. He also pointed out that there was a lack of experimentally derived data on aerosol deposition velocities to human body surfaces and that the above mentioned assumption may not be valid. The purpose of the present work is to measure aerosol deposition velocities onto human body surfaces, the resultant data to allow more accurate nuclear accident consequence modelling. Aerosol deposition velocities onto human body surfaces in simulated indoor conditions have been measured by releasing tracer aerosols of three mean particle diameters (2.6, 6.2 and 9.2μm) into a test chamber containing volunteers. The skin, hair and clothing of the volunteers were sampled and analysed for deposited aerosol by Neutron Activation Analysis. Aerosol deposition velocities onto skin in the range 1.3 - 15 x 10 -3 ms -1 were recorded, values which are approximately an order of magnitude higher than the equivalent values onto the floor of the test room. These values suggest that the exposure route of radioactive aerosol particles deposited on the skin may be more significant than hitherto had been assumed. The possible mechanisms leading to this relatively high deposition were investigated experimentally and the results suggested that a combination of factors such as the body's electrostatic
Can natural selection encode Bayesian priors?
Ramírez, Juan Camilo; Marshall, James A R
2017-08-07
The evolutionary success of many organisms depends on their ability to make decisions based on estimates of the state of their environment (e.g., predation risk) from uncertain information. These decision problems have optimal solutions and individuals in nature are expected to evolve the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if using the optimal solutions. Bayesian inference is the optimal method to produce estimates from uncertain data, thus natural selection is expected to favour individuals with the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if they were computing Bayesian estimates in typically-experienced environments, although this does not necessarily imply that favoured decision-makers do perform Bayesian computations exactly. Each individual should evolve to behave as if updating a prior estimate of the unknown environment variable to a posterior estimate as it collects evidence. The prior estimate represents the decision-maker's default belief regarding the environment variable, i.e., the individual's default 'worldview' of the environment. This default belief has been hypothesised to be shaped by natural selection and represent the environment experienced by the individual's ancestors. We present an evolutionary model to explore how accurately Bayesian prior estimates can be encoded genetically and shaped by natural selection when decision-makers learn from uncertain information. The model simulates the evolution of a population of individuals that are required to estimate the probability of an event. Every individual has a prior estimate of this probability and collects noisy cues from the environment in order to update its prior belief to a Bayesian posterior estimate with the evidence gained. The prior is inherited and passed on to offspring. Fitness increases with the accuracy of the posterior estimates produced. Simulations show that prior estimates become accurate over evolutionary time. In addition to these 'Bayesian' individuals, we also
Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments
Vogel, Kristin
2016-04-01
Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables
Static and mobile networks design for atmospheric accidental releases monitoring
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Abida, R.
2010-01-01
The global context of my PhD thesis work is the optimization of air pollution monitoring networks, but more specifically it concerns the monitoring of accidental releases of radionuclides in air. The optimization problem of air quality measuring networks has been addresses in the literature. However, it has not been addresses in the context of surveillance of accidental atmospheric releases. The first part of my thesis addresses the optimization of a permanent network of monitoring of radioactive aerosols in the air, covering France. The second part concerns the problem of targeting of observations in case of an accidental release of radionuclides from a nuclear plant. (author)
Aerosol processing for nanomanufacturing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Girshick, Steven L.
2008-01-01
Advances in nanoparticle synthesis are opening new opportunities for a broad variety of technologies that exploit the special properties of matter at the nanoscale. To realize this potential will require the development of new technologies for processing nanoparticles, so as to utilize them in a manufacturing context. Two important classes of such processing technologies include the controlled deposition of nanoparticles onto surfaces, and the application of chemically specific coatings onto individual nanoparticles, so as to either passivate or functionalize their surfaces. This paper provides an overview of three technologies related to these objectives, with an emphasis on aerosol-based methods: first, the deposition of nanoparticles by hypersonic impaction, so as so spray-coat large areas with nanoparticles; second, the use of aerodynamic lenses to produce focused beams of nanoparticles, with beam widths of a few tens of microns, so as to integrate nanoparticle-based structures into microelectromechanical systems; and third, the coating of individual nanoparticles by means of photoinduced chemical vapor deposition (photo-CVD), driven by excimer lamps. We also discuss the combination of these technologies, so that nanoparticle synthesis, together with multiple processing steps, can be accomplished in a single flow stream.
Significant atmospheric aerosol pollution caused by world food cultivation
Bauer, Susanne E.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Miller, Ron
2017-04-01
Particulate matter is a major concern for public health, causing cancer and cardiopulmonary mortality. Therefore, governments in most industrialized countries monitor and set limits for particulate matter. To assist policy makers, it is important to connect the chemical composition and severity of particulate pollution to it s sources. Here we show how agricultural practices, livestock production, and the use of nitrogen fertilizers impact near-surface air quality. In many densely populated areas, aerosols formed from gases that are released by fertilizer application and animal husbandry dominate over the combined contributions from all other anthropogenic pollution. Here we test reduction scenarios of combustion-based and agricultural emissions that could lower air pollution. For a future scenario, we find opposite trends, decreasing nitrate aerosol formation near the surface while total tropospheric loads increase. This suggests that food production could be increased to match the growing global population without sacrificing air quality if combustion emission is decreased.
The role of ammonia in the chemistry of atmospheric aerosols
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brosset, C.
1979-01-01
Data is presented on the concentrations of hydrogen and ammonium ions in aerosol samples taken under various meteorological conditions in different areas of Sweden, and implications for the atmospheric chemistry of aerosols are discussed. Particle compositions at coastal and inland stations were determined during situations when particle concentrations increased as much as a hundred times due to atmospheric transport from Europe or air movements from the east or west. Analysis of particle compositions during both types of particle episodes reveals variations in the H(+)/NH4(+) ratio which indicate that particles present over agricultural areas take up ammonia from the ground and release it over a forest district with acid lakes. The ratio is found to be dependent on the atmospheric partial pressure of ammonia at equilibrium, with the flow of ammonia to or from the ground and transport conditions also likely to influence the ratio
Significant Atmospheric Aerosol Pollution Caused by World Food Cultivation
Bauer, Susanne E.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Miller, Ron
2016-01-01
Particulate matter is a major concern for public health, causing cancer and cardiopulmonary mortality. Therefore, governments in most industrialized countries monitor and set limits for particulate matter. To assist policy makers, it is important to connect the chemical composition and severity of particulate pollution to its sources. Here we show how agricultural practices, livestock production, and the use of nitrogen fertilizers impact near-surface air quality. In many densely populated areas, aerosols formed from gases that are released by fertilizer application and animal husbandry dominate over the combined contributions from all other anthropogenic pollution. Here we test reduction scenarios of combustion-based and agricultural emissions that could lower air pollution. For a future scenario, we find opposite trends, decreasing nitrate aerosol formation near the surface while total tropospheric loads increase. This suggests that food production could be increased to match the growing global population without sacrificing air quality if combustion emission is decreased.
Substantial convection and precipitation enhancements by ultrafine aerosol particles
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fan, Jiwen; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Zhang, Yuwei; Giangrande, Scott E.; Li, Zhanqing; Machado, Luiz A. T.; Martin, Scot T.; Yang, Yan; Wang, Jian; Artaxo, Paulo; Barbosa, Henrique M. J.; Braga, Ramon C.; Comstock, Jennifer M.; Feng, Zhe; Gao, Wenhua; Gomes, Helber B.; Mei, Fan; Pöhlker, Christopher; Pöhlker, Mira L.; Pöschl, Ulrich; de Souza, Rodrigo A. F.
2018-01-25
Aerosol-cloud interaction remains the largest uncertainty in climate projections. Ultrafine aerosol particles (UAP; size <50nm) are considered too small to serve as cloud condensation nuclei conventionally. However, this study provides observational evidence to accompany insights from numerical simulations to support that deep convective clouds (DCCs) over Amazon have strong capability of nucleating UAP from an urban source and forming greater numbers of droplets, because fast drop coalescence in these DCCs reduces drop surface area available for condensation, leading to high vapor supersaturation. The additional droplets subsequently decrease supersaturation and release more condensational latent heating, a dominant contributor to convection intensification, whereas enhanced latent heat from ice-related processes plays a secondary role. Therefore, the addition of anthropogenic UAP may play a much greater role in modulating clouds than previously believed over the Amazon region and possibly in other relatively pristine regions such as maritime and forest locations.
Shortwave radiative effects of unactivated aerosol particles in clouds
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ackerman, T.; Baker, M.B.
1977-01-01
Clouds in some polluted areas may contain high concentrations of anthropogenic aerosol particles. The possible role of these particles in perturbing the optical and dynamical properties of the clouds is an important question for climate studies. The direct radiative effects of unactivated aerosol particles in stable stratus clouds have been calculated at lambda=0.5μm. Several simplifying asumptions have been made relating the behavior of such particles in the high humidity enviornment within the cloud to their physicochemical make-up. It is shown that the energy absorbed by particles within the clouds may be, for realistic concentrations, comparable to the latent heat released and thus may play a significant role in cloud dynamics in some areas. These results are shown to be relatively insensitive to the assumptions about the particle properties within the cloud
Global simulations of aerosol processing in clouds
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C. Hoose
2008-12-01
Full Text Available An explicit and detailed representation of in-droplet and in-crystal aerosol particles in stratiform clouds has been introduced in the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The new scheme allows an evaluation of the cloud cycling of aerosols and an estimation of the relative contributions of nucleation and collision scavenging, as opposed to evaporation of hydrometeors in the global aerosol processing by clouds. On average an aerosol particle is cycled through stratiform clouds 0.5 times. The new scheme leads to important changes in the simulated fraction of aerosol scavenged in clouds, and consequently in the aerosol wet deposition. In general, less aerosol is scavenged into clouds with the new prognostic treatment than what is prescribed in standard ECHAM5-HAM. Aerosol concentrations, size distributions, scavenged fractions and cloud droplet concentrations are evaluated and compared to different observations. While the scavenged fraction and the aerosol number concentrations in the marine boundary layer are well represented in the new model, aerosol optical thickness, cloud droplet number concentrations in the marine boundary layer and the aerosol volume in the accumulation and coarse modes over the oceans are overestimated. Sensitivity studies suggest that a better representation of below-cloud scavenging, higher in-cloud collision coefficients, or a reduced water uptake by seasalt aerosols could reduce these biases.
Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Urbanek, Richard P.
2012-01-01
Inbreeding depression is frequently a concern of managers interested in restoring endangered species. Decisions to reduce the potential for inbreeding depression by balancing genotypic contributions to reintroduced populations may exact a cost on long-term demographic performance of the population if those decisions result in reduced numbers of animals released and/or restriction of particularly successful genotypes (i.e., heritable traits of particular family lines). As part of an effort to restore a migratory flock of Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) to eastern North America using the offspring of captive breeders, we obtained a unique dataset which includes post-release mark-recapture data, as well as the pedigree of each released individual. We developed a Bayesian formulation of a multi-state model to analyze radio-telemetry, band-resight, and dead recovery data on reintroduced individuals, in order to track survival and breeding state transitions. We used studbook-based individual covariates to examine the comparative evidence for and degree of effects of inbreeding, genotype, and genotype quality on post-release survival of reintroduced individuals. We demonstrate implementation of the Bayesian multi-state model, which allows for the integration of imperfect detection, multiple data types, random effects, and individual- and time-dependent covariates. Our results provide only weak evidence for an effect of the quality of an individual's genotype in captivity on post-release survival as well as for an effect of inbreeding on post-release survival. We plan to integrate our results into a decision-analytic modeling framework that can explicitly examine tradeoffs between the effects of inbreeding and the effects of genotype and demographic stochasticity on population establishment.
McMeeking, G. R.; Morgan, W. T.; Flynn, M.; Highwood, E. J.; Turnbull, K.; Haywood, J.; Coe, H.
2011-09-01
Black carbon (BC) aerosols absorb sunlight thereby leading to a positive radiative forcing and a warming of climate and can also impact human health through their impact on the respiratory system. The state of mixing of BC with other aerosol species, particularly the degree of internal/external mixing, has been highlighted as a major uncertainty in assessing its radiative forcing and hence its climate impact, but few in situ observations of mixing state exist. We present airborne single particle soot photometer (SP2) measurements of refractory BC (rBC) mass concentrations and mixing state coupled with aerosol composition and optical properties measured in urban plumes and regional pollution over the United Kingdom. All data were obtained using instrumentation flown on the UK's BAe-146-301 large Atmospheric Research Aircraft (ARA) operated by the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM). We measured sub-micron aerosol composition using an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) and used positive matrix factorization to separate hydrocarbon-like (HOA) and oxygenated organic aerosols (OOA). We found a higher number fraction of thickly coated rBC particles in air masses with large OOA relative to HOA, higher ozone-to-nitrogen oxides (NOx) ratios and large concentrations of total sub-micron aerosol mass relative to rBC mass concentrations. The more ozone- and OOA-rich air masses were associated with transport from continental Europe, while plumes from UK cities had higher HOA and NOx and fewer thickly coated rBC particles. We did not observe any significant change in the rBC mass absorption efficiency calculated from rBC mass and light absorption coefficients measured by a particle soot absorption photometer despite observing significant changes in aerosol composition and rBC mixing state. The contributions of light scattering and absorption to total extinction (quantified by the single scattering albedo; SSA) did change for different air masses, with lower SSA
Black carbon aerosol mixing state, organic aerosols and aerosol optical properties over the UK
McMeeking, G. R.; Morgan, W. T.; Flynn, M.; Highwood, E. J.; Turnbull, K.; Haywood, J.; Coe, H.
2011-05-01
Black carbon (BC) aerosols absorb sunlight thereby leading to a positive radiative forcing and a warming of climate and can also impact human health through their impact on the respiratory system. The state of mixing of BC with other aerosol species, particularly the degree of internal/external mixing, has been highlighted as a major uncertainty in assessing its radiative forcing and hence its climate impact, but few in situ observations of mixing state exist. We present airborne single particle soot photometer (SP2) measurements of refractory BC (rBC) mass concentrations and mixing state coupled with aerosol composition and optical properties measured in urban plumes and regional pollution over the UK. All data were obtained using instrumentation flown on the UK's BAe-146-301 large Atmospheric Research Aircraft (ARA) operated by the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM). We measured sub-micron aerosol composition using an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) and used positive matrix factorization to separate hydrocarbon-like (HOA) and oxygenated organic aerosols (OOA). We found a higher number fraction of thickly coated rBC particles in air masses with large OOA relative to HOA, higher ozone-to-nitrogen oxides (NOx) ratios and large concentrations of total sub-micron aerosol mass relative to rBC mass concentrations. The more ozone- and OOA-rich air masses were associated with transport from continental Europe, while plumes from UK cities had higher HOA and NOx and fewer thickly coated rBC particles. We did not observe any significant change in the rBC mass absorption efficiency calculated from rBC mass and light absorption coefficients measured by a particle soot absorption photometer despite observing significant changes in aerosol composition and rBC mixing state. The contributions of light scattering and absorption to total extinction (quantified by the single scattering albedo; SSA) did change for different air masses, with lower SSA observed in
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. R. McMeeking
2011-09-01
Full Text Available Black carbon (BC aerosols absorb sunlight thereby leading to a positive radiative forcing and a warming of climate and can also impact human health through their impact on the respiratory system. The state of mixing of BC with other aerosol species, particularly the degree of internal/external mixing, has been highlighted as a major uncertainty in assessing its radiative forcing and hence its climate impact, but few in situ observations of mixing state exist. We present airborne single particle soot photometer (SP2 measurements of refractory BC (rBC mass concentrations and mixing state coupled with aerosol composition and optical properties measured in urban plumes and regional pollution over the United Kingdom. All data were obtained using instrumentation flown on the UK's BAe-146-301 large Atmospheric Research Aircraft (ARA operated by the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM. We measured sub-micron aerosol composition using an aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS and used positive matrix factorization to separate hydrocarbon-like (HOA and oxygenated organic aerosols (OOA. We found a higher number fraction of thickly coated rBC particles in air masses with large OOA relative to HOA, higher ozone-to-nitrogen oxides (NO_{x} ratios and large concentrations of total sub-micron aerosol mass relative to rBC mass concentrations. The more ozone- and OOA-rich air masses were associated with transport from continental Europe, while plumes from UK cities had higher HOA and NO_{x} and fewer thickly coated rBC particles. We did not observe any significant change in the rBC mass absorption efficiency calculated from rBC mass and light absorption coefficients measured by a particle soot absorption photometer despite observing significant changes in aerosol composition and rBC mixing state. The contributions of light scattering and absorption to total extinction (quantified by the single scattering albedo; SSA did change for
Correlation of recent fission product release data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kress, T.S.; Lorenz, R.A.; Nakamura, T.; Osborne, M.F.
1989-01-01
For the calculation of source terms associated with severe accidents, it is necessary to model the release of fission products from fuel as it heats and melts. Perhaps the most definitive model for fission product release is that of the FASTGRASS computer code developed at Argonne National Laboratory. There is persuasive evidence that these processes, as well as additional chemical and gas phase mass transport processes, are important in the release of fission products from fuel. Nevertheless, it has been found convenient to have simplified fission product release correlations that may not be as definitive as models like FASTGRASS but which attempt in some simple way to capture the essence of the mechanisms. One of the most widely used such correlation is called CORSOR-M which is the present fission product/aerosol release model used in the NRC Source Term Code Package. CORSOR has been criticized as having too much uncertainty in the calculated releases and as not accurately reproducing some experimental data. It is currently believed that these discrepancies between CORSOR and the more recent data have resulted because of the better time resolution of the more recent data compared to the data base that went into the CORSOR correlation. This document discusses a simple correlational model for use in connection with NUREG risk uncertainty exercises. 8 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab
Ruprecht, Heidi; Sigg, Laura
The concentrations of aerosols (NH 4NO 3, (NH 4) 2SO 4 and NH 4Cl) and of gases (HCl (g), HNO 3(g), NH 3(g) were determined by denuder methods under different conditions (in the absence of fog, before, during and after fog events). At this site situated in an urban region, high concentrations of the gaseous strong acids HCl (g) and HNO 3(g) are observed. NH 4Cl and NH 4NO 3 aerosols represent a major fraction of the Cl - and NO 3- aerosols (fogwater and are released again after fog dissipation.
The NIFTY way of Bayesian signal inference
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Selig, Marco
2014-01-01
We introduce NIFTY, 'Numerical Information Field Theory', a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTY can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTY as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D 3 PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy