WorldWideScience

Sample records for basic ecological models

  1. [Basic theory and research method of urban forest ecology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xingyuan; Jin, Yingshan; Zhu, Wenquan; Xu, Wenduo; Chen, Wei

    2002-12-01

    With the development of world economy and the increment of urban population, the urban environment problem hinders the urban sustainable development. Now, more and more people realized the importance of urban forests in improving the quality of urban ecology. Therefore, a new subject, urban forest ecology, and correlative new concept frame in the field formed. The theoretic foundation of urban forest ecology derived from the mutual combination of theory relating to forest ecology, landscape ecology, landscape architecture ecology and anthrop-ecology. People survey the development of city from the view of ecosystem, and regard the environment, a colony of human, animals and plants, as main factors of the system. The paper introduces systematically the urban forest ecology as follows: 1) the basic concept of urban forest ecology; 2) the meaning of urban forest ecology; 3) the basic principle and theoretic base of urban forest ecology; 4) the research method of urban forest ecology; 5) the developmental expectation of urban forest ecology.

  2. Ecology and basic laws

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayer-Tasch, P.C.

    1980-01-01

    The author sketches the critical relation between ecology and basic law - critical in more than one sense. He points out the incompatibility of constitutional states and atomic states which is due to constitutional order being jeopardised by nuclear policy. He traces back the continuously rising awareness of pollution and the modern youth movement to their common root i.e. the awakening, the youth movement of the turn of the century. Eventually, he considers an economical, political, and social decentralization as a feasible alternative which would considerably relieve our basic living conditions from the threatening forms of civilization prevailing. (HSCH) [de

  3. Overview of climate information needs for ecological effects models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peer, R.L.

    1990-01-01

    Atmospheric scientists engaged in climate change research require a basic understanding of how ecological effects models incorporate climate. The report provides an overview of existing ecological models that might be used to model climate change effects on vegetation. Some agricultural models and statistical methods are also discussed. The weather input data requirements, weather simulation methods, and other model characteristics relevant to climate change research are described for a selected number of models. The ecological models are classified as biome, ecosystem, or tree models; the ecosystem models are further subdivided into species dynamics or process models. In general, ecological modelers have had to rely on readily available meteorological data such as temperature and rainfall. Although models are becoming more sophisticated in their treatment of weather and require more kinds of data (such as wind, solar radiation, or potential evapotranspiration), modelers are still hampered by a lack of data for many applications. Future directions of ecological effects models and the climate variables that will be required by the models are discussed.

  4. Ecological model of the interprise danger of gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadygov, A.B.

    2009-01-01

    It has been looked into the basic problems for establishment of ecological model of the enterprise danger of gas. There have been established mathematical model in the base of equation of Novye-Stoks which consists of private reproductive second row differential equation system of three

  5. Basic research in evolution and ecology enhances forensics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomberlin, Jeffery K; Benbow, M Eric; Tarone, Aaron M; Mohr, Rachel M

    2011-02-01

    In 2009, the National Research Council recommended that the forensic sciences strengthen their grounding in basic empirical research to mitigate against criticism and improve accuracy and reliability. For DNA-based identification, this goal was achieved under the guidance of the population genetics community. This effort resulted in DNA analysis becoming the 'gold standard' of the forensic sciences. Elsewhere, we proposed a framework for streamlining research in decomposition ecology, which promotes quantitative approaches to collecting and applying data to forensic investigations involving decomposing human remains. To extend the ecological aspects of this approach, this review focuses on forensic entomology, although the framework can be extended to other areas of decomposition. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. Basic Methods for the Study of Reproductive Ecology of Fish in Aquaria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukuda, Kazuya; Sunobe, Tomoki

    2017-07-20

    Captive-rearing observations are valuable for revealing aspects of fish behavior and ecology when continuous field investigations are impossible. Here, a series of basic techniques are described to enable observations of the reproductive behavior of a wild-caught gobiid fish, as a model, kept in an aquarium. The method focuses on three steps: collection, transport, and observations of reproductive ecology of a substrate spawner. Essential aspects of live fish collection and transport are (1) preventing injury to the fish, and (2) careful acclimation to the aquarium. Preventing harm through injuries such as scratches or a sudden change of water pressure is imperative when collecting live fish, as any physical damage is likely to negatively affect the survival and later behavior of the fish. Careful acclimation to aquaria decreases the incidence death and mitigates the shock of transport. Observations during captive rearing include (1) the identification of individual fish and (2) monitoring spawned eggs without negative effects to the fish or eggs, thereby enabling detailed investigation of the study species' reproductive ecology. The subcutaneous injection of a visible implant elastomer (VIE) tag is a precise method for the subsequent identification of individual fish, and it can be used with a wide size range of fish, with minimal influence on their survival and behavior. If the study species is a substrate spawner that deposits adhesive eggs, an artificial nest site constructed from polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipe with the addition of a removable waterproof sheet will facilitate counting and monitoring the eggs, lessening the investigator's influence on the nest-holding and egg-guarding behavior of the fish. Although this basic method entails techniques that are seldom mentioned in detail in research articles, they are fundamental for undertaking experiments that require the captive rearing of a wild fish.

  7. ECOLOGICAL LIFESTYLE, THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF THE OPERATIONAL DEFINITION OF THE CONCEPT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olesya Nikolaevna Tarasova

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on the analysis of approaches to the empirical study of the environmental aspects of lifestyle are presented the basic principles that distinguish ecological way of life off the set of environmental practices that need to be taken into account in empirical measurement, namely: systematicity, conceptuality, contextual conformity and processuality. The article provides a theoretical basis and operational definition as an ecological way of life in general and the principles that distinguish it from other concepts of environmental sociology.

  8. Using circuit theory to model connectivity in ecology, evolution, and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McRae, Brad H; Dickson, Brett G; Keitt, Timothy H; Shah, Viral B

    2008-10-01

    Connectivity among populations and habitats is important for a wide range of ecological processes. Understanding, preserving, and restoring connectivity in complex landscapes requires connectivity models and metrics that are reliable, efficient, and process based. We introduce a new class of ecological connectivity models based in electrical circuit theory. Although they have been applied in other disciplines, circuit-theoretic connectivity models are new to ecology. They offer distinct advantages over common analytic connectivity models, including a theoretical basis in random walk theory and an ability to evaluate contributions of multiple dispersal pathways. Resistance, current, and voltage calculated across graphs or raster grids can be related to ecological processes (such as individual movement and gene flow) that occur across large population networks or landscapes. Efficient algorithms can quickly solve networks with millions of nodes, or landscapes with millions of raster cells. Here we review basic circuit theory, discuss relationships between circuit and random walk theories, and describe applications in ecology, evolution, and conservation. We provide examples of how circuit models can be used to predict movement patterns and fates of random walkers in complex landscapes and to identify important habitat patches and movement corridors for conservation planning.

  9. Spatially explicit modeling in ecology: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Yurek, Simeon

    2017-01-01

    The use of spatially explicit models (SEMs) in ecology has grown enormously in the past two decades. One major advancement has been that fine-scale details of landscapes, and of spatially dependent biological processes, such as dispersal and invasion, can now be simulated with great precision, due to improvements in computer technology. Many areas of modeling have shifted toward a focus on capturing these fine-scale details, to improve mechanistic understanding of ecosystems. However, spatially implicit models (SIMs) have played a dominant role in ecology, and arguments have been made that SIMs, which account for the effects of space without specifying spatial positions, have an advantage of being simpler and more broadly applicable, perhaps contributing more to understanding. We address this debate by comparing SEMs and SIMs in examples from the past few decades of modeling research. We argue that, although SIMs have been the dominant approach in the incorporation of space in theoretical ecology, SEMs have unique advantages for addressing pragmatic questions concerning species populations or communities in specific places, because local conditions, such as spatial heterogeneities, organism behaviors, and other contingencies, produce dynamics and patterns that usually cannot be incorporated into simpler SIMs. SEMs are also able to describe mechanisms at the local scale that can create amplifying positive feedbacks at that scale, creating emergent patterns at larger scales, and therefore are important to basic ecological theory. We review the use of SEMs at the level of populations, interacting populations, food webs, and ecosystems and argue that SEMs are not only essential in pragmatic issues, but must play a role in the understanding of causal relationships on landscapes.

  10. An assessment of adherence to basic ecological principles by payments for ecosystem service projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prager, C M; Varga, A; Olmsted, P; Ingram, J C; Cattau, M; Freund, C; Wynn-Grant, R; Naeem, S

    2016-08-01

    Programs and projects employing payments for ecosystem service (PES) interventions achieve their objectives by linking buyers and sellers of ecosystem services. Although PES projects are popular conservation and development interventions, little is known about their adherence to basic ecological principles. We conducted a quantitative assessment of the degree to which a global set of PES projects adhered to four ecological principles that are basic scientific considerations for any project focused on ecosystem management: collection of baseline data, identification of threats to an ecosystem service, monitoring, and attention to ecosystem dynamics or the formation of an adaptive management plan. We evaluated 118 PES projects in three markets-biodiversity, carbon, and water-compiled using websites of major conservation organizations; ecology, economic, and climate-change databases; and three scholarly databases (ISI Web of Knowledge, Web of Science, and Google Scholar). To assess adherence to ecological principles, we constructed two scientific indices (one additive [ASI] and one multiplicative [MSI]) based on our four ecological criteria and analyzed index scores by relevant project characteristics (e.g., sector, buyer, seller). Carbon-sector projects had higher ASI values (P < 0.05) than water-sector projects and marginally higher ASI scores (P < 0.1) than biodiversity-sector projects, demonstrating their greater adherence to ecological principles. Projects financed by public-private partnerships had significantly higher ASI values than projects financed by governments (P < 0.05) and marginally higher ASI values than those funded by private entities (P < 0.1). We did not detect differences in adherence to ecological principles based on the inclusion of cobenefits, the spatial extent of a project, or the size of a project's budget. These findings suggest, at this critical phase in the rapid growth of PES projects, that fundamental ecological principles should be

  11. Toward the quantification of a conceptual framework for movement ecology using circular statistical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimatani, Ichiro Ken; Yoda, Ken; Katsumata, Nobuhiro; Sato, Katsufumi

    2012-01-01

    To analyze an animal's movement trajectory, a basic model is required that satisfies the following conditions: the model must have an ecological basis and the parameters used in the model must have ecological interpretations, a broad range of movement patterns can be explained by that model, and equations and probability distributions in the model should be mathematically tractable. Random walk models used in previous studies do not necessarily satisfy these requirements, partly because movement trajectories are often more oriented or tortuous than expected from the models. By improving the modeling for turning angles, this study aims to propose a basic movement model. On the basis of the recently developed circular auto-regressive model, we introduced a new movement model and extended its applicability to capture the asymmetric effects of external factors such as wind. The model was applied to GPS trajectories of a seabird (Calonectris leucomelas) to demonstrate its applicability to various movement patterns and to explain how the model parameters are ecologically interpreted under a general conceptual framework for movement ecology. Although it is based on a simple extension of a generalized linear model to circular variables, the proposed model enables us to evaluate the effects of external factors on movement separately from the animal's internal state. For example, maximum likelihood estimates and model selection suggested that in one homing flight section, the seabird intended to fly toward the island, but misjudged its navigation and was driven off-course by strong winds, while in the subsequent flight section, the seabird reset the focal direction, navigated the flight under strong wind conditions, and succeeded in approaching the island.

  12. Making ecological models adequate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Wayne M.; Marshall, Charles R.; Carlson, Colin J.; Giuggioli, Luca; Ryan, Sadie J.; Romañach, Stephanie; Boettiger, Carl; Chamberlain, Samuel D.; Larsen, Laurel; D'Odorico, Paolo; O'Sullivan, David

    2018-01-01

    Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers and policymakers to make informed decisions. Poorly supported management can have detrimental, costly or irreversible impacts on the environment and society. Here, we examine common issues in ecological modelling and suggest criteria for improving modelling frameworks. An appropriate level of process description is crucial to constructing the best possible model, given the available data and understanding of ecological structures. Model details unsupported by data typically lead to over parameterisation and poor model performance. Conversely, a lack of mechanistic details may limit a model's ability to predict ecological systems’ responses to management. Ecological studies that employ models should follow a set of model adequacy assessment protocols that include: asking a series of critical questions regarding state and control variable selection, the determinacy of data, and the sensitivity and validity of analyses. We also need to improve model elaboration, refinement and coarse graining procedures to better understand the relevancy and adequacy of our models and the role they play in advancing theory, improving hind and forecasting, and enabling problem solving and management.

  13. Basics of theory of ecological crisis management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stajić Ljubomir

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Today, it is clear that environmental accidents and processes represent, not only potential but also real causes of crises on which states must be aware of. The formation of the ecological crisis is growing exponentially, along with their consequences. The problem with the environmental crisisis lies not in the fact that they exist, but how we treat them. Exploring the causes of the crisis requires an interdisciplinary approach. At the micro level, this approach focuses on the role of individuals. At the middle level of research, focus is on organizational factors and processes that may play important role in causing the crisis. Macro level of approach lists possible causes that seem to make the crisis more or less inevitable and unavoidable features of the modern world. The crisis is also characterized by negative effects (perturbations, deregulation, conflict, confused action, intense stress, which leads to reckless actions and positive effects (mobilization, solidarity, cooperation, improved adaptation to the environment, experiential learning. Furthermore, ecological crisis represents an emergency situation whose beginning and duration are not predetermined. Anti-crisis measures have failed mainly because of the numerous factors influencing on one hand, on a complexity of the crisis and, on the other hand, because of its continuously changing factors throughout the duration of the crisis. Managing ecological crisis occurs, therefore, as a permanently professional inventive and complicated process which aims to prevent the escalation of the crisis, as well as the elimination of the expected and actual negative consequences of the crisis. Mismanagement of such crisis drains system resources, interferes with its function and organization, impacts on the financial opportunities while achieving positive goals. Extreme mismanagement can lead to the entropy of the system itself. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate basic facts of managing

  14. The basic approach to age-structured population dynamics models, methods and numerics

    CERN Document Server

    Iannelli, Mimmo

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to age-structured population modeling which emphasises the connection between mathematical theory and underlying biological assumptions. Through the rigorous development of the linear theory and the nonlinear theory alongside numerics, the authors explore classical equations that describe the dynamics of certain ecological systems. Modeling aspects are discussed to show how relevant problems in the fields of demography, ecology, and epidemiology can be formulated and treated within the theory. In particular, the book presents extensions of age-structured modelling to the spread of diseases and epidemics while also addressing the issue of regularity of solutions, the asymptotic behaviour of solutions, and numerical approximation. With sections on transmission models, non-autonomous models and global dynamics, this book fills a gap in the literature on theoretical population dynamics. The Basic Approach to Age-Structured Population Dynamics will appeal to graduate students an...

  15. Ecological and general systems an introduction to systems ecology

    CERN Document Server

    Odum, Howard T.

    1994-01-01

    Using an energy systems language that combines energetics, kinetics, information, cybernetics, and simulation, Ecological and General Systems compares models of many fields of science, helping to derive general systems principles. First published as Systems Ecology in 1983, Ecological and General Systems proposes principles of self-organization and the designs that prevail by maximizing power and efficiency. Comparisons to fifty other systems languages are provided. Innovative presentations are given on earth homeostasis (Gaia); the inadequacy of presenting equations without network relationships and energy constraints; the alternative interpretation of high entropy complexity as adaptive structure; basic equations of ecological economics; and the energy basis of scientific hierarchy.

  16. ECOMOD - An ecological approach to radioecological modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sazykina, Tatiana G.

    2000-01-01

    A unified methodology is proposed to simulate the dynamic processes of radionuclide migration in aquatic food chains in parallel with their stable analogue elements. The distinguishing feature of the unified radioecological/ecological approach is the description of radionuclide migration along with dynamic equations for the ecosystem. The ability of the methodology to predict the results of radioecological experiments is demonstrated by an example of radionuclide (iron group) accumulation by a laboratory culture of the algae Platymonas viridis. Based on the unified methodology, the 'ECOMOD' radioecological model was developed to simulate dynamic radioecological processes in aquatic ecosystems. It comprises three basic modules, which are operated as a set of inter-related programs. The 'ECOSYSTEM' module solves non-linear ecological equations, describing the biomass dynamics of essential ecosystem components. The 'RADIONUCLIDE DISTRIBUTION' module calculates the radionuclide distribution in abiotic and biotic components of the aquatic ecosystem. The 'DOSE ASSESSMENT' module calculates doses to aquatic biota and doses to man from aquatic food chains. The application of the ECOMOD model to reconstruct the radionuclide distribution in the Chernobyl Cooling Pond ecosystem in the early period after the accident shows good agreement with observations

  17. The possibility of coexistence and co-development in language competition: ecology-society computational model and simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Jian; Shang, Song-Chao; Wei, Xiao-Dan; Liu, Shuang; Li, Zhi-Jie

    2016-01-01

    Language is characterized by both ecological properties and social properties, and competition is the basic form of language evolution. The rise and decline of one language is a result of competition between languages. Moreover, this rise and decline directly influences the diversity of human culture. Mathematics and computer modeling for language competition has been a popular topic in the fields of linguistics, mathematics, computer science, ecology, and other disciplines. Currently, there are several problems in the research on language competition modeling. First, comprehensive mathematical analysis is absent in most studies of language competition models. Next, most language competition models are based on the assumption that one language in the model is stronger than the other. These studies tend to ignore cases where there is a balance of power in the competition. The competition between two well-matched languages is more practical, because it can facilitate the co-development of two languages. A third issue with current studies is that many studies have an evolution result where the weaker language inevitably goes extinct. From the integrated point of view of ecology and sociology, this paper improves the Lotka-Volterra model and basic reaction-diffusion model to propose an "ecology-society" computational model for describing language competition. Furthermore, a strict and comprehensive mathematical analysis was made for the stability of the equilibria. Two languages in competition may be either well-matched or greatly different in strength, which was reflected in the experimental design. The results revealed that language coexistence, and even co-development, are likely to occur during language competition.

  18. Introduction to the Special Volume on "Ecology and Ecological Modeling in R"

    OpenAIRE

    Kneib, Thomas; Petzoldt, Thomas

    2007-01-01

    The third special volume in the "Foometrics in R" series of the Journal of Statistical Software collects a number of contributions describing statistical methodology and corresponding implementations related to ecology and ecological modelling. The scope of the papers ranges from theoretical ecology and ecological modelling to statistical methodology relevant for data analyses in ecological applications.

  19. From patterns to causal understanding: Structural equation modeling (SEM) in soil ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenhauer, Nico; Powell, Jeff R; Grace, James B.; Bowker, Matthew A.

    2015-01-01

    In this perspectives paper we highlight a heretofore underused statistical method in soil ecological research, structural equation modeling (SEM). SEM is commonly used in the general ecological literature to develop causal understanding from observational data, but has been more slowly adopted by soil ecologists. We provide some basic information on the many advantages and possibilities associated with using SEM and provide some examples of how SEM can be used by soil ecologists to shift focus from describing patterns to developing causal understanding and inspiring new types of experimental tests. SEM is a promising tool to aid the growth of soil ecology as a discipline, particularly by supporting research that is increasingly hypothesis-driven and interdisciplinary, thus shining light into the black box of interactions belowground.

  20. ECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF THE CAUCASUS AND THE AIMS OF MODELING OF SUSTAINABLE FUTURE OF THE REGION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chkhaidze, N.; Tsitskishvili, M.; Tsitskishvili, M.; Japaridze, L.

    2008-01-01

    The ecological crisis, the main alternative of the progress of modern civilization, has posed a number of problems, including educational ones, to the developing world community. In this work, the basic criteria of differentation of ecology from other natural sciences - the existence and the indissoluble unity of ''ecological triad'' are formulated; the basic problems of ecology of the Caucasus are revealed, and hence the basic aims of environmental protection for achievement of sustainable development of the region are formulated. (author)

  1. A universal simulator for ecological models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holst, Niels

    2013-01-01

    Software design is an often neglected issue in ecological models, even though bad software design often becomes a hindrance for re-using, sharing and even grasping an ecological model. In this paper, the methodology of agile software design was applied to the domain of ecological models. Thus...... the principles for a universal design of ecological models were arrived at. To exemplify this design, the open-source software Universal Simulator was constructed using C++ and XML and is provided as a resource for inspiration....

  2. Basic model for the prediction of 137Cs concentration in the organisms of detritus food chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tateda, Yuzuru

    1997-01-01

    In order to predict 137 Cs concentrations in marine organisms for monitoring, a basic model for the prediction of nuclide levels in marine organisms of detritus food chain was studied. The equilibrated values of ( 137 Cs level in organism)/( 137 Cs level in seawater) derived from calculation agreed with the observed data, indicating validity of modeling conditions. The result of simulation by this basic model showed the following conclusions. 1) ''Ecological half-life'' of 137 Cs in organisms of food chain were 35 and 130 days for detritus feeder and benthic teleosts, respectively, indicating that there was no difference of the ecological half lives in organisms between in detritus food chain and in other food chains. 2) The 137 Cs concentration in organisms showed a peak at 18 and 100 days in detritus and detritus feeder, respectively, after the introduction of 137 Cs into environmental seawater. Their concentration ratios to 137 Cs peak level in seawater were within a range of 2.7-3.8, indicating insignificant difference in the response to 137 Cs change in seawater between in the organisms of detritus food chain and of other food chain. 3) The basic model studies makes it available that the prediction of 137 Cs level in organisms of food chain can be simulated in coastal ecosystem. (author)

  3. Evaluation of Ecological Environmental Quality in a Coal Mining Area by Modelling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaodong Yan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to explore the effective method of the comprehensive evaluation of ecological environmental quality in a coal mining area. Firstly, we analyzed the ecological environmental effect of the coal mining area according to Pigovian Tax theory and, according to the results of the analysis and the demand for the selection of evaluation indices by the comprehensive evaluation, built the corresponding comprehensive evaluation index system. We then used the correlation function method to determine the relative weights of each index. We determined the basic standards of a comprehensive evaluation of ecological environmental quality in a coal mining area according to the actual situation of ecological environmental quality assessments in coal mining areas in our country and the relevant provisions of the government. On this basis, we built the two-level extension comprehensive evaluation model for the evaluation of ecological environmental quality in mining areas. Finally, we chose a certain coal mining area of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited as the specific case. We used the relevant statistic data, technical and economic indices and the extension evaluation model to do the applied research of the comprehensive evaluation and tested the effectiveness of the comprehensive evaluation model.

  4. Investigating ecological speciation in non-model organisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foote, Andrew David

    2012-01-01

    Background: Studies of ecological speciation tend to focus on a few model biological systems. In contrast, few studies on non-model organisms have been able to infer ecological speciation as the underlying mechanism of evolutionary divergence. Questions: What are the pitfalls in studying ecological...... speciation in non-model organisms that lead to this bias? What alternative approaches might redress the balance? Organism: Genetically differentiated types of the killer whale (Orcinus orca) exhibiting differences in prey preference, habitat use, morphology, and behaviour. Methods: Review of the literature...... on killer whale evolutionary ecology in search of any difficulty in demonstrating causal links between variation in phenotype, ecology, and reproductive isolation in this non-model organism. Results: At present, we do not have enough evidence to conclude that adaptive phenotype traits linked to ecological...

  5. Models for optimum thermo-ecological criteria of actual thermal cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Açikkalp Emin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the ecological optimization point of irreversible thermal cycles (refrigerator, heat pump and power cycles was investigated. The importance of ecological optimization is to propose a way to use fuels and energy source more efficiently because of an increasing energy need and environmental pollution. It provides this by maximizing obtained (or minimizing supplied work and minimizing entropy generation for irreversible (actual thermal cycles. In this research, ecological optimization was defined for all basic irreversible thermal cycles, by using the first and second laws of thermodynamics. Finally, the ecological optimization was defined in thermodynamic cycles and results were given to show the effects of the cycles’ ecological optimization point, efficiency, COP and power output (or input, and exergy destruction.

  6. Soil and deforestation use standards in Amazon and its global impacts: a regional dynamics economic and ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sherrill, Elisabeth I.

    1999-01-01

    The aim of the work was to introduce a simulation model to analyze the deforestation causes in Amazon. The work describes the basic parameters and fundamental concepts to the performed modeling comprehension. The several agents soil utilization standards were going observed and the economic and ecological interactions simulated. The global impact aspects are also analyzed

  7. Quantifying the dilution effect for models in ecological epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, M G; Heesterbeek, J A P

    2018-03-01

    The dilution effect , where an increase in biodiversity results in a reduction in the prevalence of an infectious disease, has been the subject of speculation and controversy. Conversely, an amplification effect occurs when increased biodiversity is related to an increase in prevalence. We explore the conditions under which these effects arise, using multi species compartmental models that integrate ecological and epidemiological interactions. We introduce three potential metrics for quantifying dilution and amplification, one based on infection prevalence in a focal host species, one based on the size of the infected subpopulation of that species and one based on the basic reproduction number. We introduce our approach in the simplest epidemiological setting with two species, and show that the existence and strength of a dilution effect is influenced strongly by the choices made to describe the system and the metric used to gauge the effect. We show that our method can be generalized to any number of species and to more complicated ecological and epidemiological dynamics. Our method allows a rigorous analysis of ecological systems where dilution effects have been postulated, and contributes to future progress in understanding the phenomenon of dilution in the context of infectious disease dynamics and infection risk. © 2018 The Author(s).

  8. Ecological hierarchies and self-organisation - Pattern analysis, modelling and process integration across scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuter, H.; Jopp, F.; Blanco-Moreno, J. M.; Damgaard, C.; Matsinos, Y.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    2010-01-01

    A continuing discussion in applied and theoretical ecology focuses on the relationship of different organisational levels and on how ecological systems interact across scales. We address principal approaches to cope with complex across-level issues in ecology by applying elements of hierarchy theory and the theory of complex adaptive systems. A top-down approach, often characterised by the use of statistical techniques, can be applied to analyse large-scale dynamics and identify constraints exerted on lower levels. Current developments are illustrated with examples from the analysis of within-community spatial patterns and large-scale vegetation patterns. A bottom-up approach allows one to elucidate how interactions of individuals shape dynamics at higher levels in a self-organisation process; e.g., population development and community composition. This may be facilitated by various modelling tools, which provide the distinction between focal levels and resulting properties. For instance, resilience in grassland communities has been analysed with a cellular automaton approach, and the driving forces in rodent population oscillations have been identified with an agent-based model. Both modelling tools illustrate the principles of analysing higher level processes by representing the interactions of basic components.The focus of most ecological investigations on either top-down or bottom-up approaches may not be appropriate, if strong cross-scale relationships predominate. Here, we propose an 'across-scale-approach', closely interweaving the inherent potentials of both approaches. This combination of analytical and synthesising approaches will enable ecologists to establish a more coherent access to cross-level interactions in ecological systems. ?? 2010 Gesellschaft f??r ??kologie.

  9. MELA: Modelling in Ecology with Location Attributes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludovica Luisa Vissat

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Ecology studies the interactions between individuals, species and the environment. The ability to predict the dynamics of ecological systems would support the design and monitoring of control strategies and would help to address pressing global environmental issues. It is also important to plan for efficient use of natural resources and maintenance of critical ecosystem services. The mathematical modelling of ecological systems often includes nontrivial specifications of processes that influence the birth, death, development and movement of individuals in the environment, that take into account both biotic and abiotic interactions. To assist in the specification of such models, we introduce MELA, a process algebra for Modelling in Ecology with Location Attributes. Process algebras allow the modeller to describe concurrent systems in a high-level language. A key feature of concurrent systems is that they are composed of agents that can progress simultaneously but also interact - a good match to ecological systems. MELA aims to provide ecologists with a straightforward yet flexible tool for modelling ecological systems, with particular emphasis on the description of space and the environment. Here we present four example MELA models, illustrating the different spatial arrangements which can be accommodated and demonstrating the use of MELA in epidemiological and predator-prey scenarios.

  10. DECISION STRATEGIES AND COGNITIVE ADAPTATIONS TO ECOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poleszczuk Jan

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, I discuss the concept of adaptive rationality. I present a simple model of ecology and the set of decision rules. The basic structure of the process of cognitive adaptation to ecology is described as a structure comprising (1 perceptual space, (2 a function valuating perceived items, (3 a set of available decision rules and (4 the adaptation process - identification and selection of the best strategies in given ecological conditions. The presented model of ecosystem allows a conclusion that completely opposite strategies may be compatible with the assumption of adaptive rationality.

  11. Applied systems ecology: models, data, and statistical methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eberhardt, L L

    1976-01-01

    In this report, systems ecology is largely equated to mathematical or computer simulation modelling. The need for models in ecology stems from the necessity to have an integrative device for the diversity of ecological data, much of which is observational, rather than experimental, as well as from the present lack of a theoretical structure for ecology. Different objectives in applied studies require specialized methods. The best predictive devices may be regression equations, often non-linear in form, extracted from much more detailed models. A variety of statistical aspects of modelling, including sampling, are discussed. Several aspects of population dynamics and food-chain kinetics are described, and it is suggested that the two presently separated approaches should be combined into a single theoretical framework. It is concluded that future efforts in systems ecology should emphasize actual data and statistical methods, as well as modelling.

  12. Modeling abundance using N-mixture models: the importance of considering ecological mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Liana N; Elkin, Ché; Martin, Tara G; Possinghami, Hugh P

    2009-04-01

    Predicting abundance across a species' distribution is useful for studies of ecology and biodiversity management. Modeling of survey data in relation to environmental variables can be a powerful method for extrapolating abundances across a species' distribution and, consequently, calculating total abundances and ultimately trends. Research in this area has demonstrated that models of abundance are often unstable and produce spurious estimates, and until recently our ability to remove detection error limited the development of accurate models. The N-mixture model accounts for detection and abundance simultaneously and has been a significant advance in abundance modeling. Case studies that have tested these new models have demonstrated success for some species, but doubt remains over the appropriateness of standard N-mixture models for many species. Here we develop the N-mixture model to accommodate zero-inflated data, a common occurrence in ecology, by employing zero-inflated count models. To our knowledge, this is the first application of this method to modeling count data. We use four variants of the N-mixture model (Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson, negative binomial, and zero-inflated negative binomial) to model abundance, occupancy (zero-inflated models only) and detection probability of six birds in South Australia. We assess models by their statistical fit and the ecological realism of the parameter estimates. Specifically, we assess the statistical fit with AIC and assess the ecological realism by comparing the parameter estimates with expected values derived from literature, ecological theory, and expert opinion. We demonstrate that, despite being frequently ranked the "best model" according to AIC, the negative binomial variants of the N-mixture often produce ecologically unrealistic parameter estimates. The zero-inflated Poisson variant is preferable to the negative binomial variants of the N-mixture, as it models an ecological mechanism rather than a

  13. Equation-free modeling unravels the behavior of complex ecological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Yurek, Simeon

    2015-01-01

    Ye et al. (1) address a critical problem confronting the management of natural ecosystems: How can we make forecasts of possible future changes in populations to help guide management actions? This problem is especially acute for marine and anadromous fisheries, where the large interannual fluctuations of populations, arising from complex nonlinear interactions among species and with varying environmental factors, have defied prediction over even short time scales. The empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) described in Ye et al.’s report, the latest in a series of papers by Sugihara and his colleagues, offers a promising quantitative approach to building models using time series to successfully project dynamics into the future. With the term “equation-free” in the article title, Ye et al. (1) are suggesting broader implications of their approach, considering the centrality of equations in modern science. From the 1700s on, nature has been increasingly described by mathematical equations, with differential or difference equations forming the basic framework for describing dynamics. The use of mathematical equations for ecological systems came much later, pioneered by Lotka and Volterra, who showed that population cycles might be described in terms of simple coupled nonlinear differential equations. It took decades for Lotka–Volterra-type models to become established, but the development of appropriate differential equations is now routine in modeling ecological dynamics. There is no question that the injection of mathematical equations, by forcing “clarity and precision into conjecture” (2), has led to increased understanding of population and community dynamics. As in science in general, in ecology equations are a key method of communication and of framing hypotheses. These equations serve as compact representations of an enormous amount of empirical data and can be analyzed by the powerful methods of mathematics.

  14. Predicting Stress Related to Basic Needs and Safety in Darfur Refugee Camps: A Structural and Social Ecological Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Andrew; Annan, Jeannie

    2010-03-01

    The research on the determinants of mental health among refugees has been largely limited to traumatic events, but recent work has indicated that the daily hassles of living in refugee camps also play a large role. Using hierarchical linear modelling to account for refugees nested within camp blocks, this exploratory study attempted to model stress surrounding safety and acquiring basic needs and functional impairment among refugees from Darfur living in Chad, using individual-level demographics (e.g., gender, age, presence of a debilitating injury), structural factors (e.g., distance from block to distribution centre), and social ecological variables (e.g., percentage of single women within a block). We found that stress concerning safety concerns, daily hassles, and functional impairment were associated with several individual-level demographic factors (e.g., gender), but also with interactions between block-level and individual-level factors as well (e.g., injury and distance to distribution centre). Findings are discussed in terms of monitoring and evaluation of refugee services.

  15. Sustainability and economics: The Adirondack Park experience, a forest economic-ecological model, and solar energy policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Jon David

    The long-term sustainability of human communities will depend on our relationship with regional environments, our maintenance of renewable resources, and our successful disengagement from nonrenewable energy dependence. This dissertation investigates sustainability at these three levels, following a critical analysis of sustainability and economics. At the regional environment level, the Adirondack Park of New York State is analyzed as a potential model of sustainable development. A set of initial and ongoing conditions are presented that both emerge from and support a model of sustainability in the Adirondacks. From these conditions, a clearer picture emerges of the definition of regional sustainability, consequences of its adoption, and lessons from its application. Next, an economic-ecological model of the northern hardwood forest ecosystem is developed. The model integrates economic theory and intertemporal ecological concepts, linking current harvest decisions with future forest growth, financial value, and ecosystem stability. The results indicate very different economic and ecological outcomes by varying opportunity cost and ecosystem recovery assumptions, and suggest a positive benefit to ecological recovery in the forest rotation decision of the profit maximizing manager. The last section investigates the motives, economics, and international development implications of renewable energy (specifically photovoltaic technology) in rural electrification and technology transfer, drawing on research in the Dominican Republic. The implications of subsidizing a photovoltaic market versus investing in basic research are explored.

  16. Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

  17. Ecological models and pesticide risk assessment: current modeling practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; Chapman, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2010-04-01

    Ecological risk assessments of pesticides usually focus on risk at the level of individuals, and are carried out by comparing exposure and toxicological endpoints. However, in most cases the protection goal is populations rather than individuals. On the population level, effects of pesticides depend not only on exposure and toxicity, but also on factors such as life history characteristics, population structure, timing of application, presence of refuges in time and space, and landscape structure. Ecological models can integrate such factors and have the potential to become important tools for the prediction of population-level effects of exposure to pesticides, thus allowing extrapolations, for example, from laboratory to field. Indeed, a broad range of ecological models have been applied to chemical risk assessment in the scientific literature, but so far such models have only rarely been used to support regulatory risk assessments of pesticides. To better understand the reasons for this situation, the current modeling practice in this field was assessed in the present study. The scientific literature was searched for relevant models and assessed according to nine characteristics: model type, model complexity, toxicity measure, exposure pattern, other factors, taxonomic group, risk assessment endpoint, parameterization, and model evaluation. The present study found that, although most models were of a high scientific standard, many of them would need modification before they are suitable for regulatory risk assessments. The main shortcomings of currently available models in the context of regulatory pesticide risk assessments were identified. When ecological models are applied to regulatory risk assessments, we recommend reviewing these models according to the nine characteristics evaluated here. (c) 2010 SETAC.

  18. A Conceptual Framework for Evaluating the Domains of Applicability of Ecological Models and its Implementation in the Ecological Production Function Library - International Society for Ecological Modelling Conference

    Science.gov (United States)

    The use of computational ecological models to inform environmental management and policy has proliferated in the past 25 years. These models have become essential tools as linkages and feedbacks between human actions and ecological responses can be complex, and as funds for sampl...

  19. The Future of Urban Ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elle, Morten

    1998-01-01

    This article is discusing the basic conditions for a positive development of urban ecology in Denmark. A number of battles has to be won.......This article is discusing the basic conditions for a positive development of urban ecology in Denmark. A number of battles has to be won....

  20. A simple model of bipartite cooperation for ecological and organizational networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saavedra, Serguei; Reed-Tsochas, Felix; Uzzi, Brian

    2009-01-22

    In theoretical ecology, simple stochastic models that satisfy two basic conditions about the distribution of niche values and feeding ranges have proved successful in reproducing the overall structural properties of real food webs, using species richness and connectance as the only input parameters. Recently, more detailed models have incorporated higher levels of constraint in order to reproduce the actual links observed in real food webs. Here, building on previous stochastic models of consumer-resource interactions between species, we propose a highly parsimonious model that can reproduce the overall bipartite structure of cooperative partner-partner interactions, as exemplified by plant-animal mutualistic networks. Our stochastic model of bipartite cooperation uses simple specialization and interaction rules, and only requires three empirical input parameters. We test the bipartite cooperation model on ten large pollination data sets that have been compiled in the literature, and find that it successfully replicates the degree distribution, nestedness and modularity of the empirical networks. These properties are regarded as key to understanding cooperation in mutualistic networks. We also apply our model to an extensive data set of two classes of company engaged in joint production in the garment industry. Using the same metrics, we find that the network of manufacturer-contractor interactions exhibits similar structural patterns to plant-animal pollination networks. This surprising correspondence between ecological and organizational networks suggests that the simple rules of cooperation that generate bipartite networks may be generic, and could prove relevant in many different domains, ranging from biological systems to human society.

  1. Data Assimilation at FLUXNET to Improve Models towards Ecological Forecasting (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Y.

    2009-12-01

    Dramatically increased volumes of data from observational and experimental networks such as FLUXNET call for transformation of ecological research to increase its emphasis on quantitative forecasting. Ecological forecasting will also meet the societal need to develop better strategies for natural resource management in a world of ongoing global change. Traditionally, ecological forecasting has been based on process-based models, informed by data in largely ad hoc ways. Although most ecological models incorporate some representation of mechanistic processes, today’s ecological models are generally not adequate to quantify real-world dynamics and provide reliable forecasts with accompanying estimates of uncertainty. A key tool to improve ecological forecasting is data assimilation, which uses data to inform initial conditions and to help constrain a model during simulation to yield results that approximate reality as closely as possible. In an era with dramatically increased availability of data from observational and experimental networks, data assimilation is a key technique that helps convert the raw data into ecologically meaningful products so as to accelerate our understanding of ecological processes, test ecological theory, forecast changes in ecological services, and better serve the society. This talk will use examples to illustrate how data from FLUXNET have been assimilated with process-based models to improve estimates of model parameters and state variables; to quantify uncertainties in ecological forecasting arising from observations, models and their interactions; and to evaluate information contributions of data and model toward short- and long-term forecasting of ecosystem responses to global change.

  2. Basic Phage Mathematics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abedon, Stephen T; Katsaounis, Tena I

    2018-01-01

    Basic mathematical descriptions are useful in phage ecology, applied phage ecology such as in the course of phage therapy, and also toward keeping track of expected phage-bacterial interactions as seen during laboratory manipulation of phages. The most basic mathematical descriptor of phages is their titer, that is, their concentration within stocks, experimental vessels, or other environments. Various phenomena can serve to modify phage titers, and indeed phage titers can vary as a function of how they are measured. An important aspect of how changes in titers can occur results from phage interactions with bacteria. These changes tend to vary in degree as a function of bacterial densities within environments, and particularly densities of those bacteria that are susceptible to or at least adsorbable by a given phage type. Using simple mathematical models one can describe phage-bacterial interactions that give rise particularly to phage adsorption events. With elaboration one can consider changes in both phage and bacterial densities as a function of both time and these interactions. In addition, phages along with their impact on bacteria can be considered as spatially constrained processes. In this chapter we consider the simpler of these concepts, providing in particular detailed verbal explanations toward facile mathematical insight. The primary goal is to stimulate a more informed use and manipulation of phages and phage populations within the laboratory as well as toward more effective phage application outside of the laboratory, such as during phage therapy. More generally, numerous issues and approaches to the quantification of phages are considered along with the quantification of individual, ecological, and applied properties of phages.

  3. Integrating models with data in ecology and palaeoecology: advances towards a model-data fusion approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Changhui; Guiot, Joel; Wu, Haibin; Jiang, Hong; Luo, Yiqi

    2011-05-01

    It is increasingly being recognized that global ecological research requires novel methods and strategies in which to combine process-based ecological models and data in cohesive, systematic ways. Model-data fusion (MDF) is an emerging area of research in ecology and palaeoecology. It provides a new quantitative approach that offers a high level of empirical constraint over model predictions based on observations using inverse modelling and data assimilation (DA) techniques. Increasing demands to integrate model and data methods in the past decade has led to MDF utilization in palaeoecology, ecology and earth system sciences. This paper reviews key features and principles of MDF and highlights different approaches with regards to DA. After providing a critical evaluation of the numerous benefits of MDF and its current applications in palaeoecology (i.e., palaeoclimatic reconstruction, palaeovegetation and palaeocarbon storage) and ecology (i.e. parameter and uncertainty estimation, model error identification, remote sensing and ecological forecasting), the paper discusses method limitations, current challenges and future research direction. In the ongoing data-rich era of today's world, MDF could become an important diagnostic and prognostic tool in which to improve our understanding of ecological processes while testing ecological theory and hypotheses and forecasting changes in ecosystem structure, function and services. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  4. When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.

    2017-01-01

    Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

  5. Introduction to Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Ecological Data

    CERN Document Server

    Parent, Eric

    2012-01-01

    Making statistical modeling and inference more accessible to ecologists and related scientists, Introduction to Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Ecological Data gives readers a flexible and effective framework to learn about complex ecological processes from various sources of data. It also helps readers get started on building their own statistical models. The text begins with simple models that progressively become more complex and realistic through explanatory covariates and intermediate hidden states variables. When fitting the models to data, the authors gradually present the concepts a

  6. An analytically tractable model for community ecology with many species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickens, Benjamin; Fisher, Charles; Mehta, Pankaj; Pankaj Mehta Biophysics Theory Group Team

    A fundamental problem in community ecology is to understand how ecological processes such as selection, drift, and immigration yield observed patterns in species composition and diversity. Here, we present an analytically tractable, presence-absence (PA) model for community assembly and use it to ask how ecological traits such as the strength of competition, diversity in competition, and stochasticity affect species composition in a community. In our PA model, we treat species as stochastic binary variables that can either be present or absent in a community: species can immigrate into the community from a regional species pool and can go extinct due to competition and stochasticity. Despite its simplicity, the PA model reproduces the qualitative features of more complicated models of community assembly. In agreement with recent work on large, competitive Lotka-Volterra systems, the PA model exhibits distinct ecological behaviors organized around a special (``critical'') point corresponding to Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity. Our results suggest that the concepts of ``phases'' and phase diagrams can provide a powerful framework for thinking about community ecology and that the PA model captures the essential ecological dynamics of community assembly. Pm was supported by a Simons Investigator in the Mathematical Modeling of Living Systems and a Sloan Research Fellowship.

  7. Study on the Progress of Ecological Fragility Assessment in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Pei; Hou, Kang; Chang, Yue; Li, Xuxiang; Zhang, Yunwei

    2018-02-01

    The basic elements of human survival are based on the ecological environment. The development of social economic and the security of the ecological environment are closely linked and interact with each other. The fragility of the environment directly affects the stability of the regional ecosystem and the sustainable development of the ecological environment. As part of the division of the national ecological security, the assessment of ecological fragility has become a hot and difficult issue in environmental research, and researchers at home and abroad have systematically studied the causes and states of ecological fragility. The assessment of regional ecological fragility is a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the unbalanced distribution of ecological environment factors caused by human socio-economic activities or changes in ecosystems. At present, researches on ecological fragility has not formed a complete and unified index assessment system, and the unity of the assessment model has a direct impact on the accuracy of the index weights. Therefore, the discussion on selection of ecological fragility indexes and the improvement of ecological fragility assessment model is necessary, which is good for the improvement of ecological fragility assessment system in China.

  8. Putting the "Ecology" into Environmental Flows: Ecological Dynamics and Demographic Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R.; Yen, Jian D. L.; Mac Nally, Ralph

    2012-07-01

    There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological `health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A `meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

  9. Putting the "ecology" into environmental flows: ecological dynamics and demographic modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R; Yen, Jian D L; Mac Nally, Ralph

    2012-07-01

    There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological 'health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A 'meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

  10. Basic entwinements: unassuming analogue inserts in basic digital modeling (courses)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiesner, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Ubiquitous, basic digital modelling tools are currently deployed with relative ease in architecture schools during the course of first year studies. While these first architectural projects essays sometimes communicate matter with already quite impressive professional outlooks, a certain disparit...

  11. Progress and challenges in coupled hydrodynamic-ecological estuarine modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganju, Neil K.; Brush, Mark J.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; del Barrio, Pilar; Grear, Jason S.; Harris, Lora A.; Lake, Samuel J.; McCardell, Grant; O'Donnell, James; Ralston, David K.; Signell, Richard P.; Testa, Jeremy; Vaudrey, Jamie M. P.

    2016-01-01

    Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review, we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a “theory of everything” for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy.

  12. Ecological plant epigenetics: Evidence from model and non-model species, and the way forward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Christina L; Alonso, Conchita; Becker, Claude; Bossdorf, Oliver; Bucher, Etienne; Colomé-Tatché, Maria; Durka, Walter; Engelhardt, Jan; Gaspar, Bence; Gogol-Döring, Andreas; Grosse, Ivo; van Gurp, Thomas P; Heer, Katrin; Kronholm, Ilkka; Lampei, Christian; Latzel, Vít; Mirouze, Marie; Opgenoorth, Lars; Paun, Ovidiu; Prohaska, Sonja J; Rensing, Stefan A; Stadler, Peter F; Trucchi, Emiliano; Ullrich, Kristian; Verhoeven, Koen J F

    2017-12-01

    Growing evidence shows that epigenetic mechanisms contribute to complex traits, with implications across many fields of biology. In plant ecology, recent studies have attempted to merge ecological experiments with epigenetic analyses to elucidate the contribution of epigenetics to plant phenotypes, stress responses, adaptation to habitat, and range distributions. While there has been some progress in revealing the role of epigenetics in ecological processes, studies with non-model species have so far been limited to describing broad patterns based on anonymous markers of DNA methylation. In contrast, studies with model species have benefited from powerful genomic resources, which contribute to a more mechanistic understanding but have limited ecological realism. Understanding the significance of epigenetics for plant ecology requires increased transfer of knowledge and methods from model species research to genomes of evolutionarily divergent species, and examination of responses to complex natural environments at a more mechanistic level. This requires transforming genomics tools specifically for studying non-model species, which is challenging given the large and often polyploid genomes of plants. Collaboration among molecular geneticists, ecologists and bioinformaticians promises to enhance our understanding of the mutual links between genome function and ecological processes. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Mathematical models of ecology and evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Lai

    2012-01-01

    -history processes: net-assimilation mechanism of 􀀀rule and net-reproduction mechanism of size dependence using a simple model comprising a size-structured consumer Daphina and an unstructured resource alge. It is found that in contrast to the former mechanism, the latter tends to destabilize population...... dynamics but as a trade-o promotes species survival by shortening juvenile delay between birth and the onset of reproduction. Paper II compares the size-spectrum and food-web representations of communities using two traits (body size and habitat location) based unstructured population model of Lotka......) based size-structured population model, that is, interference in foraging, maintenance, survival, and recruitment. Their impacts on the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations and communities are explored. Ecologically, interference aects population demographic properties either negatively...

  14. Guide for developing conceptual models for ecological risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, G.W., II.

    1996-05-01

    Ecological conceptual models are the result of the problem formulation phase of an ecological risk assessment, which is an important component of the Remedial Investigation process. They present hypotheses of how the site contaminants might affect the site ecology. The contaminant sources, routes, media, routes, and endpoint receptors are presented in the form of a flow chart. This guide is for preparing the conceptual models; use of this guide will standardize the models so that they will be of high quality, useful to the assessment process, and sufficiently consistent so that connections between sources of exposure and receptors can be extended across operable units (OU). Generic conceptual models are presented for source, aquatic integrator, groundwater integrator, and terrestrial OUs

  15. Optimization of the scheme for natural ecology planning of urban rivers based on ANP (analytic network process) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yichuan; Wang, Jiangping

    2015-07-01

    Rivers serve as a highly valued component in ecosystem and urban infrastructures. River planning should follow basic principles of maintaining or reconstructing the natural landscape and ecological functions of rivers. Optimization of planning scheme is a prerequisite for successful construction of urban rivers. Therefore, relevant studies on optimization of scheme for natural ecology planning of rivers is crucial. In the present study, four planning schemes for Zhaodingpal River in Xinxiang City, Henan Province were included as the objects for optimization. Fourteen factors that influenced the natural ecology planning of urban rivers were selected from five aspects so as to establish the ANP model. The data processing was done using Super Decisions software. The results showed that important degree of scheme 3 was highest. A scientific, reasonable and accurate evaluation of schemes could be made by ANP method on natural ecology planning of urban rivers. This method could be used to provide references for sustainable development and construction of urban rivers. ANP method is also suitable for optimization of schemes for urban green space planning and design.

  16. The big data-big model (BDBM) challenges in ecological research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The field of ecology has become a big-data science in the past decades due to development of new sensors used in numerous studies in the ecological community. Many sensor networks have been established to collect data. For example, satellites, such as Terra and OCO-2 among others, have collected data relevant on global carbon cycle. Thousands of field manipulative experiments have been conducted to examine feedback of terrestrial carbon cycle to global changes. Networks of observations, such as FLUXNET, have measured land processes. In particular, the implementation of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), which is designed to network different kinds of sensors at many locations over the nation, will generate large volumes of ecological data every day. The raw data from sensors from those networks offer an unprecedented opportunity for accelerating advances in our knowledge of ecological processes, educating teachers and students, supporting decision-making, testing ecological theory, and forecasting changes in ecosystem services. Currently, ecologists do not have the infrastructure in place to synthesize massive yet heterogeneous data into resources for decision support. It is urgent to develop an ecological forecasting system that can make the best use of multiple sources of data to assess long-term biosphere change and anticipate future states of ecosystem services at regional and continental scales. Forecasting relies on big models that describe major processes that underlie complex system dynamics. Ecological system models, despite great simplification of the real systems, are still complex in order to address real-world problems. For example, Community Land Model (CLM) incorporates thousands of processes related to energy balance, hydrology, and biogeochemistry. Integration of massive data from multiple big data sources with complex models has to tackle Big Data-Big Model (BDBM) challenges. Those challenges include interoperability of multiple

  17. Robustness Analysis of Visual QA Models by Basic Questions

    KAUST Repository

    Huang, Jia-Hong

    2017-09-14

    Visual Question Answering (VQA) models should have both high robustness and accuracy. Unfortunately, most of the current VQA research only focuses on accuracy because there is a lack of proper methods to measure the robustness of VQA models. There are two main modules in our algorithm. Given a natural language question about an image, the first module takes the question as input and then outputs the ranked basic questions, with similarity scores, of the main given question. The second module takes the main question, image and these basic questions as input and then outputs the text-based answer of the main question about the given image. We claim that a robust VQA model is one, whose performance is not changed much when related basic questions as also made available to it as input. We formulate the basic questions generation problem as a LASSO optimization, and also propose a large scale Basic Question Dataset (BQD) and Rscore (novel robustness measure), for analyzing the robustness of VQA models. We hope our BQD will be used as a benchmark for to evaluate the robustness of VQA models, so as to help the community build more robust and accurate VQA models.

  18. Robustness Analysis of Visual QA Models by Basic Questions

    KAUST Repository

    Huang, Jia-Hong; Alfadly, Modar; Ghanem, Bernard

    2017-01-01

    Visual Question Answering (VQA) models should have both high robustness and accuracy. Unfortunately, most of the current VQA research only focuses on accuracy because there is a lack of proper methods to measure the robustness of VQA models. There are two main modules in our algorithm. Given a natural language question about an image, the first module takes the question as input and then outputs the ranked basic questions, with similarity scores, of the main given question. The second module takes the main question, image and these basic questions as input and then outputs the text-based answer of the main question about the given image. We claim that a robust VQA model is one, whose performance is not changed much when related basic questions as also made available to it as input. We formulate the basic questions generation problem as a LASSO optimization, and also propose a large scale Basic Question Dataset (BQD) and Rscore (novel robustness measure), for analyzing the robustness of VQA models. We hope our BQD will be used as a benchmark for to evaluate the robustness of VQA models, so as to help the community build more robust and accurate VQA models.

  19. Ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalusche, D.

    1978-01-01

    The book turns to the freshment, the teacher, for preparation of ecological topics for lessons, but also to pupils of the secondary stage II, and the main course ecology. The book was knowingly held simple with the restriction to: the ecosystem and its abiotic basic functions, simple articles on population biology, bioceonotic balance ith the questions of niche formation and the life form types coherent with it, of the substance and energy household, the production biology and space-wise and time-wise differentations within an ecological system form the main points. A central role in the volume is given to the illustrations. Their variety is to show and deepen the coherences shown. (orig./HP) [de

  20. Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Craft, Meggan E

    2016-01-01

    Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks.

  1. Ecological Niche Modelling of Bank Voles in Western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Amirpour Haredasht

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The bank vole (Myodes glareolus is the natural host of Puumala virus (PUUV in vast areas of Europe. PUUV is one of the hantaviruses which are transmitted to humans by infected rodents. PUUV causes a general mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS called nephropathia epidemica (NE. Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover influences disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, as well as by facilitating the human contact with them. In this study the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM for predicting the geographical distribution of bank vole population on the basis of spatial climate information is tested. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP is used to model the ecological niche of bank voles in Western Europe. The meteorological data, land cover types and geo-referenced points representing the locations of the bank voles (latitude/longitude in the study area are used as the primary model input value. The predictive accuracy of the bank vole ecologic niche model was significant (training accuracy of 86%. The output of the GARP models based on the 50% subsets of points used for testing the model showed an accuracy of 75%. Compared with random models, the probability of such high predictivity was low (χ2 tests, p < 10−6. As such, the GARP models were predictive and the used ecologic niche model indeed indicates the ecologic requirements of bank voles. This approach successfully identified the areas of infection risk across the study area. The result suggests that the niche modelling approach can be implemented in a next step towards the development of new tools for monitoring the bank vole’s population.

  2. Ecological niche modelling of bank voles in Western Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amirpour Haredasht, Sara; Barrios, Miguel; Farifteh, Jamshid; Maes, Piet; Clement, Jan; Verstraeten, Willem W; Tersago, Katrien; Van Ranst, Marc; Coppin, Pol; Berckmans, Daniel; Aerts, Jean-Marie

    2013-01-28

    The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the natural host of Puumala virus (PUUV) in vast areas of Europe. PUUV is one of the hantaviruses which are transmitted to humans by infected rodents. PUUV causes a general mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) called nephropathia epidemica (NE). Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover influences disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, as well as by facilitating the human contact with them. In this study the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM) for predicting the geographical distribution of bank vole population on the basis of spatial climate information is tested. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) is used to model the ecological niche of bank voles in Western Europe. The meteorological data, land cover types and geo-referenced points representing the locations of the bank voles (latitude/longitude) in the study area are used as the primary model input value. The predictive accuracy of the bank vole ecologic niche model was significant (training accuracy of 86%). The output of the GARP models based on the 50% subsets of points used for testing the model showed an accuracy of 75%. Compared with random models, the probability of such high predictivity was low (χ(2) tests, p < 10(-6)). As such, the GARP models were predictive and the used ecologic niche model indeed indicates the ecologic requirements of bank voles. This approach successfully identified the areas of infection risk across the study area. The result suggests that the niche modelling approach can be implemented in a next step towards the development of new tools for monitoring the bank vole's population.

  3. Including Overweight or Obese Students in Physical Education: A Social Ecological Constraint Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Weidong; Rukavina, Paul

    2012-01-01

    In this review, we propose a social ecological constraint model to study inclusion of overweight or obese students in physical education by integrating key concepts and assumptions from ecological constraint theory in motor development and social ecological models in health promotion and behavior. The social ecological constraint model proposes…

  4. Unifying relationships between complexity and stability in mutualistic ecological communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Wenfeng; Bailey, Richard M

    2018-02-14

    Conserving ecosystem function and associated services requires deep understanding of the underlying basis of system stability. While the study of ecological dynamics is a mature and diverse field, the lack of a general model that predicts a broad range of theoretical and empirical observations has allowed unresolved contradictions to persist. Here we provide a general model of mutualistic ecological interactions between two groups and show for the first time how the conditions for bi-stability, the nature of critical transitions, and identifiable leading indicators in time-series can be derived from the basic parameters describing the underlying ecological interactions. Strong mutualism and nonlinearity in handling-time are found to be necessary conditions for the occurrence of critical transitions. We use the model to resolve open questions concerning the effects of heterogeneity in inter-species interactions on both resilience and abundance, and discuss these in terms of potential trade-offs in real systems. This framework provides a basis for rich investigations of ecological system dynamics, and may be generalizable across many ecological contexts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. An ecological process model of systems change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peirson, Leslea J; Boydell, Katherine M; Ferguson, H Bruce; Ferris, Lorraine E

    2011-06-01

    In June 2007 the American Journal of Community Psychology published a special issue focused on theories, methods and interventions for systems change which included calls from the editors and authors for theoretical advancement in this field. We propose a conceptual model of systems change that integrates familiar and fundamental community psychology principles (succession, interdependence, cycling of resources, adaptation) and accentuates a process orientation. To situate our framework we offer a definition of systems change and a brief review of the ecological perspective and principles. The Ecological Process Model of Systems Change is depicted, described and applied to a case example of policy driven systems level change in publicly funded social programs. We conclude by identifying salient implications for thinking and action which flow from the Model.

  6. Applications of fractals in ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugihara, G; M May, R

    1990-03-01

    Fractal models describe the geometry of a wide variety of natural objects such as coastlines, island chains, coral reefs, satellite ocean-color images and patches of vegetation. Cast in the form of modified diffusion models, they can mimic natural and artificial landscapes having different types of complexity of shape. This article provides a brief introduction to fractals and reports on how they can be used by ecologists to answer a variety of basic questions, about scale, measurement and hierarchy in, ecological systems. Copyright © 1990. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Beyond positivist ecology: toward an integrated ecological ethics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, Bryan G

    2008-12-01

    A post-positivist understanding of ecological science and the call for an "ecological ethic" indicate the need for a radically new approach to evaluating environmental change. The positivist view of science cannot capture the essence of environmental sciences because the recent work of "reflexive" ecological modelers shows that this requires a reconceptualization of the way in which values and ecological models interact in scientific process. Reflexive modelers are ecological modelers who believe it is appropriate for ecologists to examine the motives for their choices in developing models; this self-reflexive approach opens the door to a new way of integrating values into public discourse and to a more comprehensive approach to evaluating ecological change. This reflexive building of ecological models is introduced through the transformative simile of Aldo Leopold, which shows that learning to "think like a mountain" involves a shift in both ecological modeling and in values and responsibility. An adequate, interdisciplinary approach to ecological valuation, requires a re-framing of the evaluation questions in entirely new ways, i.e., a review of the current status of interdisciplinary value theory with respect to ecological values reveals that neither of the widely accepted theories of environmental value-neither economic utilitarianism nor intrinsic value theory (environmental ethics)-provides a foundation for an ecologically sensitive evaluation process. Thus, a new, ecologically sensitive, and more comprehensive approach to evaluating ecological change would include an examination of the metaphors that motivate the models used to describe environmental change.

  8. Of Models and Meanings: Cultural Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd A. Crane

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Modeling has emerged as a key technology in analysis of social-ecological systems. However, the tendency for modeling to focus on the mechanistic materiality of biophysical systems obscures the diversity of performative social behaviors and normative cultural positions of actors within the modeled system. The fact that changes in the biophysical system can be culturally constructed in different ways means that the perception and pursuit of adaptive pathways can be highly variable. Furthermore, the adoption of biophysically resilient livelihoods can occur under conditions that are subjectively experienced as the radical transformation of cultural systems. The objectives of this work are to: (1 highlight the importance of understanding the place of culture within social-ecological systems, (2 explore the tensions between empirical and normative positions in the analysis of social-ecological resilience, and (3 suggest how empirical modeling of social-ecological systems can synergistically interact with normative aspects of livelihoods and lifeways.

  9. System dynamic modelling of industrial growth and landscape ecology in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jian; Kang, Jian; Shao, Long; Zhao, Tianyu

    2015-09-15

    With the rapid development of large industrial corridors in China, the landscape ecology of the country is currently being affected. Therefore, in this study, a system dynamic model with multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamic prediction function that considers industrial growth and landscape ecology is developed and verified to allow for more sustainable development. Firstly, relationships between industrial development and landscape ecology in China are examined, and five subsystems are then established: industry, population, urban economy, environment and landscape ecology. The main influencing factors are then examined for each subsystem to establish flow charts connecting those factors. Consequently, by connecting the subsystems, an overall industry growth and landscape ecology model is established. Using actual data and landscape index calculated based on GIS of the Ha-Da-Qi industrial corridor, a typical industrial corridor in China, over the period 2005-2009, the model is validated in terms of historical behaviour, logical structure and future prediction, where for 84.8% of the factors, the error rate of the model is less than 5%, the mean error rate of all factors is 2.96% and the error of the simulation test for the landscape ecology subsystem is less than 2%. Moreover, a model application has been made to consider the changes in landscape indices under four industrial development modes, and the optimal industrial growth plan has been examined for landscape ecological protection through the simulation prediction results over 2015-2020. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Between Design and Ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørn, Mona Chor

    such vegetation, based on concepts and theories in plant community ecology. If these communities are based on local forbs there is a continuum in anthropogenic intervention from designed and intensively maintained to semi-natural herbaceous vegetation. Results from a large field experiment show that, after three...... colonised by grasses and eventually woody species. This thesis adds useful basic knowledge in plant community ecology and species-specific growth, which are relevant to research and planning in landscape architecture and ecology....

  11. [Assessment on the ecological suitability in Zhuhai City, Guangdong, China, based on minimum cumulative resistance model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jian-fei; Li, Lin; Guo, Luo; Du, Shi-hong

    2016-01-01

    Urban landscape has the characteristics of spatial heterogeneity. Because the expansion process of urban constructive or ecological land has different resistance values, the land unit stimulates and promotes the expansion of ecological land with different intensity. To compare the effect of promoting and hindering functions in the same land unit, we firstly compared the minimum cumulative resistance value of promoting and hindering functions, and then looked for the balance of two landscape processes under the same standard. According to the ecology principle of minimum limit factor, taking the minimum cumulative resistance analysis method under two expansion processes as the evaluation method of urban land ecological suitability, this research took Zhuhai City as the study area to estimate urban ecological suitability by relative evaluation method with remote sensing image, field survey, and statistics data. With the support of ArcGIS, five types of indicators on landscape types, ecological value, soil erosion sensitivity, sensitivity of geological disasters, and ecological function were selected as input parameters in the minimum cumulative resistance model to compute urban ecological suitability. The results showed that the ecological suitability of the whole Zhuhai City was divided into five levels: constructive expansion prohibited zone (10.1%), constructive expansion restricted zone (32.9%), key construction zone (36.3%), priority development zone (2.3%), and basic cropland (18.4%). Ecological suitability of the central area of Zhuhai City was divided into four levels: constructive expansion prohibited zone (11.6%), constructive expansion restricted zone (25.6%), key construction zone (52.4%), priority development zone (10.4%). Finally, we put forward the sustainable development framework of Zhuhai City according to the research conclusion. On one hand, the government should strictly control the development of the urban center area. On the other hand, the

  12. Robustness Analysis of Visual Question Answering Models by Basic Questions

    KAUST Repository

    Huang, Jia-Hong

    2017-11-01

    Visual Question Answering (VQA) models should have both high robustness and accuracy. Unfortunately, most of the current VQA research only focuses on accuracy because there is a lack of proper methods to measure the robustness of VQA models. There are two main modules in our algorithm. Given a natural language question about an image, the first module takes the question as input and then outputs the ranked basic questions, with similarity scores, of the main given question. The second module takes the main question, image and these basic questions as input and then outputs the text-based answer of the main question about the given image. We claim that a robust VQA model is one, whose performance is not changed much when related basic questions as also made available to it as input. We formulate the basic questions generation problem as a LASSO optimization, and also propose a large scale Basic Question Dataset (BQD) and Rscore (novel robustness measure), for analyzing the robustness of VQA models. We hope our BQD will be used as a benchmark for to evaluate the robustness of VQA models, so as to help the community build more robust and accurate VQA models.

  13. Robustness Analysis of Visual Question Answering Models by Basic Questions

    KAUST Repository

    Huang, Jia-Hong

    2017-01-01

    Visual Question Answering (VQA) models should have both high robustness and accuracy. Unfortunately, most of the current VQA research only focuses on accuracy because there is a lack of proper methods to measure the robustness of VQA models. There are two main modules in our algorithm. Given a natural language question about an image, the first module takes the question as input and then outputs the ranked basic questions, with similarity scores, of the main given question. The second module takes the main question, image and these basic questions as input and then outputs the text-based answer of the main question about the given image. We claim that a robust VQA model is one, whose performance is not changed much when related basic questions as also made available to it as input. We formulate the basic questions generation problem as a LASSO optimization, and also propose a large scale Basic Question Dataset (BQD) and Rscore (novel robustness measure), for analyzing the robustness of VQA models. We hope our BQD will be used as a benchmark for to evaluate the robustness of VQA models, so as to help the community build more robust and accurate VQA models.

  14. On the general procedure for modelling complex ecological systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Shanyu.

    1987-12-01

    In this paper, the principle of a general procedure for modelling complex ecological systems, i.e. the Adaptive Superposition Procedure (ASP) is shortly stated. The result of application of ASP in a national project for ecological regionalization is also described. (author). 3 refs

  15. A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) for synthesising high-frequency sensor data for validation of deterministic ecological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Hamilton P; Carey, Cayelan C.; Arvola, Lauri; Arzberger, Peter; Brewer, Carol A.; Cole, Jon J; Gaiser, Evelyn; Hanson, Paul C.; Ibelings, Bas W; Jennings, Eleanor; Kratz, Tim K; Lin, Fang-Pang; McBride, Christopher G.; de Motta Marques, David; Muraoka, Kohji; Nishri, Ami; Qin, Boqiang; Read, Jordan S.; Rose, Kevin C.; Ryder, Elizabeth; Weathers, Kathleen C.; Zhu, Guangwei; Trolle, Dennis; Brookes, Justin D

    2014-01-01

    A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON; www.gleon.org) has formed to provide a coordinated response to the need for scientific understanding of lake processes, utilising technological advances available from autonomous sensors. The organisation embraces a grassroots approach to engage researchers from varying disciplines, sites spanning geographic and ecological gradients, and novel sensor and cyberinfrastructure to synthesise high-frequency lake data at scales ranging from local to global. The high-frequency data provide a platform to rigorously validate process- based ecological models because model simulation time steps are better aligned with sensor measurements than with lower-frequency, manual samples. Two case studies from Trout Bog, Wisconsin, USA, and Lake Rotoehu, North Island, New Zealand, are presented to demonstrate that in the past, ecological model outputs (e.g., temperature, chlorophyll) have been relatively poorly validated based on a limited number of directly comparable measurements, both in time and space. The case studies demonstrate some of the difficulties of mapping sensor measurements directly to model state variable outputs as well as the opportunities to use deviations between sensor measurements and model simulations to better inform process understanding. Well-validated ecological models provide a mechanism to extrapolate high-frequency sensor data in space and time, thereby potentially creating a fully 3-dimensional simulation of key variables of interest.

  16. Chasing Ecological Interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordano, Pedro

    2016-09-01

    Basic research on biodiversity has concentrated on individual species-naming new species, studying distribution patterns, and analyzing their evolutionary relationships. Yet biodiversity is more than a collection of individual species; it is the combination of biological entities and processes that support life on Earth. To understand biodiversity we must catalog it, but we must also assess the ways species interact with other species to provide functional support for the Tree of Life. Ecological interactions may be lost well before the species involved in those interactions go extinct; their ecological functions disappear even though they remain. Here, I address the challenges in studying the functional aspects of species interactions and how basic research is helping us address the fast-paced extinction of species due to human activities.

  17. Validation of ecological state space models using the Laplace approximation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Albertsen, Christoffer Moesgaard; Berg, Casper Willestofte

    2017-01-01

    Many statistical models in ecology follow the state space paradigm. For such models, the important step of model validation rarely receives as much attention as estimation or hypothesis testing, perhaps due to lack of available algorithms and software. Model validation is often based on a naive...... for estimation in general mixed effects models. Implementing one-step predictions in the R package Template Model Builder, we demonstrate that it is possible to perform model validation with little effort, even if the ecological model is multivariate, has non-linear dynamics, and whether observations...... useful directions in which the model could be improved....

  18. A brief introduction to mixed effects modelling and multi-model inference in ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Xavier A; Donaldson, Lynda; Correa-Cano, Maria Eugenia; Evans, Julian; Fisher, David N; Goodwin, Cecily E D; Robinson, Beth S; Hodgson, David J; Inger, Richard

    2018-01-01

    The use of linear mixed effects models (LMMs) is increasingly common in the analysis of biological data. Whilst LMMs offer a flexible approach to modelling a broad range of data types, ecological data are often complex and require complex model structures, and the fitting and interpretation of such models is not always straightforward. The ability to achieve robust biological inference requires that practitioners know how and when to apply these tools. Here, we provide a general overview of current methods for the application of LMMs to biological data, and highlight the typical pitfalls that can be encountered in the statistical modelling process. We tackle several issues regarding methods of model selection, with particular reference to the use of information theory and multi-model inference in ecology. We offer practical solutions and direct the reader to key references that provide further technical detail for those seeking a deeper understanding. This overview should serve as a widely accessible code of best practice for applying LMMs to complex biological problems and model structures, and in doing so improve the robustness of conclusions drawn from studies investigating ecological and evolutionary questions.

  19. Improving traffic signal management and operations : a basic service model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    This report provides a guide for achieving a basic service model for traffic signal management and : operations. The basic service model is based on simply stated and defensible operational objectives : that consider the staffing level, expertise and...

  20. Oscillations and chaos behind predator-prey invasion: mathematical artifact or ecological reality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherratt, J. A.; Eagan, B. T.; Lewis, M. A.

    1997-01-01

    A constant dilemma in theoretical ecology is knowing whether model predictions corrspond to real phenomena or whether they are artifacts of the modelling framework. The frequent absence of detailed ecological data against which models can be tested gives this issue particular importance. We address this question in the specific case of invasion in a predator-prey system with oscillatory population kinetics, in which both species exhibit local random movement. Given only these two basic qualitative features, we consider whether we can deduce any properties of the behaviour following invasion. To do this we study four different types of mathematical model, which have no formal relationship, but which all reflect our two qualitative ingredients. The models are: reaction-diffusion equations, coupled map lattices, deterministic cellular automata, and integrodifference equations. We present results of numerical simulations of the invasion of prey by predators for each model, and show that although there are certain differences, the main qualitative features of the behaviour behind invasion are the same for all the models. Specifically, there are either irregular spatiotemporal oscillations behind the invasion, or regular spatiotemporal oscillations with the form of a periodic travelling 'wake', depending on parameter values. The observation of this behaviour in all types of model strongly suggests that it is a direct consequence of our basic qualitative assumptions, and as such is an ecological reality which will always occur behind invasion in actual oscillatory predator-prey systems.

  1. Ecological Values of Mangrove Forest Ecosystem

    OpenAIRE

    Kusmana, Cecep

    1996-01-01

    Research on quantification of ecological values of mangrove forest ecosystem are urgently needed, due to its importance as the basics for utilization and management of resources. From the ecological point of vlew, the main prohlem of mangrove ecosystem is rarity and inconsistency of data and limited accurate methods inquantifying ecological values of that ecosystem. Results show that mangrove has the significant ecological values on coastal ecosystem. However, there must be further research t...

  2. Civic Ecology: A Postmodern Approach to Ecological Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, V. L.

    2013-12-01

    Human agency is transforming the planetary processes at unprecedented rates risking damaging essential life-support systems. Climate change, massive species extinction, land degradation, resources depletion, overpopulation, poverty and social injustice are all the result of human choices and non-sustainable ways of life. The survival of our modern economic systems depends upon insatiable consumption - a simple way of life no longer satisfies most people. Detached, instrumental rationality has created an ideal of liberalism based on individual pursuit of self-interest, leading the way into unprecedented material progress but bringing with it human alienation, social injustice, and ecological degradation. The purpose of this presentation is to introduce a community-based systems response to a growing sense that the interlocked social-ecological crisis is as much a problem of human thought and behavior as it is about identifying carrying capacities and CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. This approach, referred to here as civic ecology, presents a new and important paradigm shift in sustainability practice that attempts to bring together and integrate ecological ideas and postmodern thinking. As such, it is as much a holistic, dynamic, and synergistic approach to ecological sustainability, as it is a philosophy of life and ethical perspective born of ecological understanding and insight. Civic ecology starts with the proposition that the key factor determining the health of the ecosphere is the behavior of human beings, and therefore many of the most important issues related to sustainability lie in the areas of human thought and culture. Thus, the quest for sustainability must include as a central concern the transformation of psychological and behavioral patterns that have become an imminent danger to planetary health. At the core of this understanding is a fundamental paradigm shift from the basic commitments of modern Western culture to its model of mechanism

  3. Contemporary Ecological Interactions Improve Models of Past Trait Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, Matthew C; Gaiarsa, Marília P; Stouffer, Daniel B

    2018-02-20

    Despite the fact that natural selection underlies both traits and interactions, evolutionary models often neglect that ecological interactions may, and in many cases do, influence the evolution of traits. Here, we explore the interdependence of ecological interactions and functional traits in the pollination associations of hawkmoths and flowering plants. Specifically, we develop an adaptation of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of trait evolution that allows us to study the influence of plant corolla depth and observed hawkmoth-plant interactions on the evolution of hawkmoth proboscis length. Across diverse modelling scenarios, we find that the inclusion of contemporary interactions can provide a better description of trait evolution than the null expectation. Moreover, we show that the pollination interactions provide more-likely models of hawkmoth trait evolution when interactions are considered at increasingly finescale groups of hawkmoths. Finally, we demonstrate how the results of best-fit modelling approaches can implicitly support the association between interactions and trait evolution that our method explicitly examines. In showing that contemporary interactions can provide insight into the historical evolution of hawkmoth proboscis length, we demonstrate the clear utility of incorporating additional ecological information to models designed to study past trait evolution.

  4. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  5. Cognitive Comparisons of Students' Systems Modeling in Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Kathleen; Thomas, David

    2001-12-01

    This study examined the cognition of five pairs of high school students over time as they built quantitative ecological models using STELLA software. One pair of students emerged as being particularly proficient at learning to model, and was able to use models productively to explore and explain ecological system behaviors. We present detailed contrasts between this and the other pairs of students' cognitive behaviors while modeling, in three areas that were crucial to their modeling productivity: (a) focusing on model output and net interactions versus on model input and individual relationships when building and revising models, (b) exploring the nature and implications of dependencies and feedbacks versus just creating these as properties of complex systems, and (c) using variables versus constants to represent continuous and periodic functions. We then apply theories of the multifaceted nature of cognition to describe object-level, metalevel, and emotional dimensions of cognitive performance that help to explain the observed differences among students' approaches to STELLA modeling. Finally, we suggest pedagogical strategies for supporting all types of students in learning the central scientific practice of model-based quantitative thinking.

  6. Individual-based modeling of ecological and evolutionary processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Mooij, Wolf M.

    2005-01-01

    Individual-based models (IBMs) allow the explicit inclusion of individual variation in greater detail than do classical differential-equation and difference-equation models. Inclusion of such variation is important for continued progress in ecological and evolutionary theory. We provide a conceptual basis for IBMs by describing five major types of individual variation in IBMs: spatial, ontogenetic, phenotypic, cognitive, and genetic. IBMs are now used in almost all subfields of ecology and evolutionary biology. We map those subfields and look more closely at selected key papers on fish recruitment, forest dynamics, sympatric speciation, metapopulation dynamics, maintenance of diversity, and species conservation. Theorists are currently divided on whether IBMs represent only a practical tool for extending classical theory to more complex situations, or whether individual-based theory represents a radically new research program. We feel that the tension between these two poles of thinking can be a source of creativity in ecology and evolutionary theory.

  7. Dynamic ecological-economic modeling approach for management of shellfish aquaculture

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Nobre, AM

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this report is to conceptualize ecological and economic interactions in mariculture; to implement a dynamic ecological-economic model in order to: simulate the socio-economics of aquaculture production, simulate its effects...

  8. A Sense of Place: Integrating Environmental Psychology into Marine Socio-Ecological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Putten, I. E.; Fleming, A.; Fulton, E.; Plaganyi-Lloyd, E.

    2016-02-01

    Sense of place is a concept that is increasingly applied in different social research contexts where it can act as a bridge between disciplines that might otherwise work in parallel. A sense of place is a well established and flexible concept that has been empirically measured using different survey methods. The psychological principals and theories that underpin sense of place have been inextricably linked to the quality of ecological systems and the impact on development of the system, and vice versa. Ecological models and scenario analyses play an important role in characterising, assessing and predicting the potential impacts of alternative developments and other changes affecting ecological systems. To improve the predictive accuracy of ecological models, human drivers, interactions, and uses have been dynamically incorporated, for instance, through management strategy evaluation applied to marine ecosystem models. However, to date no socio-ecological models (whether terrestrial or marine) have been developed that incorporate a dynamic feedback between ecosystem characteristics and peoples' sense of place. These models thus essentially ignore the influence of environmental psychology on the way people use and interact with ecosystems. We develop a proof of concept and provide a mathematical basis for a Sense of Place Index (SoPI) that allows the quantitative integration of environmental psychology into socio-ecological models. Incorporating dynamic feedback between the SoPI for different resource user groups and the ecological system improves the accuracy and precision of predictions regarding future resource use as well as, ultimately, the potential state of the resource to be developed.

  9. [Coupling coordinated development of ecological-economic system in Loess Plateau].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qing-Feng; Wu, Fa-Qi; Wang, Li; Wang, Jian

    2011-06-01

    Based on system theory, a coupling coordinated development model of ecological-economic system in Loess Plateau was established, and the evaluation criteria and basic types of the coordinated development of the ecological-economic system were proposed. The county-level coupling coordinated development of the ecological-economic system was also discussed, based on the local characteristics. The interactions between the ecological and economic systems in Loess Plateau could be divided into four stages, i.e., seriously disordered development stage, mild-disordered development stage, low-level coordinated development stage, and high level well-coordinated development stage. At each stage, there existed a cyclic process of profit and loss-antagonist-running-dominant-synchronous development. The coupling development degree of the ecological-economic system in Loess Plateau was overall at a lower level, being about 62.7% of the counties at serious disorder, 30.1% of the counties at mild disorder, and 7.1% of the counties at low but coordinated level. The coupling development degree based on the model established in this study could better reflect the current social-economic and ecological environment situations, especially the status of coordination. To fully understand the coupling of ecological-economic system and to adopt appropriate development mode would be of significance to promote the county-level coordinated development in Loess Plateau.

  10. Increasing the reliability of ecological models using modern software engineering techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert M. Scheller; Brian R. Sturtevant; Eric J. Gustafson; Brendan C. Ward; David J. Mladenoff

    2009-01-01

    Modern software development techniques are largely unknown to ecologists. Typically, ecological models and other software tools are developed for limited research purposes, and additional capabilities are added later, usually in an ad hoc manner. Modern software engineering techniques can substantially increase scientific rigor and confidence in ecological models and...

  11. Savannah River Ecology Laboratory. Annual technical progress report of ecological research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.H.

    1996-01-01

    The Savannah River Ecology Laboratory (SREL) is a research unit of the University of Georgia (UGA). The overall mission of the Laboratory is to acquire and communicate knowledge of ecological processes and principles. SREL conducts basic and applied ecological research, as well as education and outreach programs, under a contract with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) at the Savannah River Site (SRS) near Aiken, South Carolina. Significant accomplishments were made during the past year in the areas of research, education and service. The Laboratory's research mission was fulfilled with the publication of two books and 143 journal articles and book chapters by faculty, technical and students, and visiting scientists. An additional three books and about 80 journal articles currently are in press. Faculty, technician and students presented 193 lectures, scientific presentations, and posters to colleges and universities, including minority institutions. Dr. J Vaun McArthur organized and conducted the Third Annual SREL Symposium on the Environment: New Concepts in Strewn Ecology: An Integrative Approach. Dr. Michael Newman conducted a 5-day course titled Quantitative Methods in Ecotoxicology, and Dr. Brian Teppen of The Advanced Analytical Center for Environmental Sciences (AACES) taught a 3-day short course titled Introduction to Molecular Modeling of Environmental Systems. Dr. I. Lehr Brisbin co-hosted a meeting of the Crocodile Special Interest Group. Dr. Rebecca Sharitz attended four symposia in Japan during May and June 1996 and conducted meetings of the Executive Committee and Board of the International Association for Ecology (ENTECOL)

  12. Savannah River Ecology Laboratory. Annual technical progress report of ecological research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, M.H.

    1996-07-31

    The Savannah River Ecology Laboratory (SREL) is a research unit of the University of Georgia (UGA). The overall mission of the Laboratory is to acquire and communicate knowledge of ecological processes and principles. SREL conducts basic and applied ecological research, as well as education and outreach programs, under a contract with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) at the Savannah River Site (SRS) near Aiken, South Carolina. Significant accomplishments were made during the past year in the areas of research, education and service. The Laboratory`s research mission was fulfilled with the publication of two books and 143 journal articles and book chapters by faculty, technical and students, and visiting scientists. An additional three books and about 80 journal articles currently are in press. Faculty, technician and students presented 193 lectures, scientific presentations, and posters to colleges and universities, including minority institutions. Dr. J Vaun McArthur organized and conducted the Third Annual SREL Symposium on the Environment: New Concepts in Strewn Ecology: An Integrative Approach. Dr. Michael Newman conducted a 5-day course titled Quantitative Methods in Ecotoxicology, and Dr. Brian Teppen of The Advanced Analytical Center for Environmental Sciences (AACES) taught a 3-day short course titled Introduction to Molecular Modeling of Environmental Systems. Dr. I. Lehr Brisbin co-hosted a meeting of the Crocodile Special Interest Group. Dr. Rebecca Sharitz attended four symposia in Japan during May and June 1996 and conducted meetings of the Executive Committee and Board of the International Association for Ecology (ENTECOL).

  13. Ecological research at the Savannah River Ecology Laboratory. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-05-01

    Research is organized around two major programs: thermal and aquatic stress and mineral cycling. These programs are strengthened by a previously established foundation of basic ecological knowledge. Research in basic ecology continues to be a major component of all SREL environmental programs. Emphasis in all programs has been placed upon field-oriented research relating to regional and local problems having broad ecological significance. For example, extensive research has been conducted in the Par Pond reservoir system and the Savannah River swamp, both of which have received thermal effluent, heavy metals, and low levels of radioisotopes. Furthermore, the availability of low levels of plutonium and uranium in both terrestrial and aquatic environments on the Savannah River Plant (SRP) has provided an unusual opportunity for field research in this area. The studies seek to document the effects, to determine the extent of local environmental problems, and to establish predictable relationships which have general applicability. In order to accomplish this objective it has been imperative that studies be carried out in the natural, environmentally unaffected areas on the SRP as a vital part of the overall program. Progress is reported in forty-nine studies.

  14. Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

    2008-01-01

    A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics.

  15. Framework for analyzing ecological trait-based models in multidimensional niche spaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biancalani, Tommaso; DeVille, Lee; Goldenfeld, Nigel

    2015-05-01

    We develop a theoretical framework for analyzing ecological models with a multidimensional niche space. Our approach relies on the fact that ecological niches are described by sequences of symbols, which allows us to include multiple phenotypic traits. Ecological drivers, such as competitive exclusion, are modeled by introducing the Hamming distance between two sequences. We show that a suitable transform diagonalizes the community interaction matrix of these models, making it possible to predict the conditions for niche differentiation and, close to the instability onset, the asymptotically long time population distributions of niches. We exemplify our method using the Lotka-Volterra equations with an exponential competition kernel.

  16. Individual-based modeling of ecological and evolutionary processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    DeAngelis, D.L.; Mooij, W.M.

    2005-01-01

    Individual-based models (IBMs) allow the explicit inclusion of individual variation in greater detail than do classical differential and difference equation models. Inclusion of such variation is important for continued progress in ecological and evolutionary theory. We provide a conceptual basis

  17. Quality quantification model of basic raw materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Š. Vilamová

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Basic raw materials belong to the key input sources in the production of pig iron. The properties of basic raw materials can be evaluated using a variety of criteria. The essential ones include the physical and chemical properties. Current competitive pressures, however, force the producers of iron more and more often to include cost and logistic criteria into the decision-making process. In this area, however, they are facing a problem of how to convert a variety of vastly different parameters into one evaluation indicator in order to compare the available raw materials. This article deals with the analysis of a model created to evaluate the basic raw materials, which was designed as part of the research.

  18. A Conceptual Framework for Evaluating the Domains of Applicability of Ecological Models and its Implementation in the Ecological Production Function Library

    Science.gov (United States)

    The use of computational ecological models to inform environmental management and policy has proliferated in the past 25 years. These models have become essential tools as linkages and feedbacks between human actions and ecological responses can be complex, and as funds for sampl...

  19. Stress and adaptation : Toward ecologically relevant animal models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koolhaas, Jaap M.; Boer, Sietse F. de; Buwalda, Bauke

    Animal models have contributed considerably to the current understanding of mechanisms underlying the role of stress in health and disease. Despite the progress made already, much more can be made by more carefully exploiting animals' and humans' shared biology, using ecologically relevant models.

  20. Stochastic dynamical models for ecological regime shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Carstensen, Jacob; Madsen, Henrik

    the physical and biological knowledge of the system, and nonlinearities introduced here can generate regime shifts or enhance the probability of regime shifts in the case of stochastic models, typically characterized by a threshold value for the known driver. A simple model for light competition between...... definition and stability of regimes become less subtle. Ecological regime shifts and their modeling must be viewed in a probabilistic manner, particularly if such model results are to be used in ecosystem management....

  1. Rich dynamics of discrete delay ecological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng Mingshu

    2005-01-01

    We study multiple bifurcations and chaotic behavior of a discrete delay ecological model. New form of chaos for the 2-D map is observed: the combination of potential period doubling and reverse period-doubling leads to cascading bubbles

  2. Integration of research infrastructures and ecosystem models toward development of predictive ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Y.; Huang, Y.; Jiang, J.; MA, S.; Saruta, V.; Liang, G.; Hanson, P. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Milcu, A.; Roy, J.

    2017-12-01

    The past two decades have witnessed rapid development in sensor technology. Built upon the sensor development, large research infrastructure facilities, such as National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) and FLUXNET, have been established. Through networking different kinds of sensors and other data collections at many locations all over the world, those facilities generate large volumes of ecological data every day. The big data from those facilities offer an unprecedented opportunity for advancing our understanding of ecological processes, educating teachers and students, supporting decision-making, and testing ecological theory. The big data from the major research infrastructure facilities also provides foundation for developing predictive ecology. Indeed, the capability to predict future changes in our living environment and natural resources is critical to decision making in a world where the past is no longer a clear guide to the future. We are living in a period marked by rapid climate change, profound alteration of biogeochemical cycles, unsustainable depletion of natural resources, and deterioration of air and water quality. Projecting changes in future ecosystem services to the society becomes essential not only for science but also for policy making. We will use this panel format to outline major opportunities and challenges in integrating research infrastructure and ecosystem models toward developing predictive ecology. Meanwhile, we will also show results from an interactive model-experiment System - Ecological Platform for Assimilating Data into models (EcoPAD) - that have been implemented at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental change (SPRUCE) experiment in Northern Minnesota and Montpellier Ecotron, France. EcoPAD is developed by integrating web technology, eco-informatics, data assimilation techniques, and ecosystem modeling. EcoPAD is designed to streamline data transfer seamlessly from research infrastructure

  3. Community Ecology

    CERN Document Server

    1988-01-01

    This book presents the proceedings of a workshop on community ecology organized at Davis, in April, 1986, sponsored by the Sloan Foundation. There have been several recent symposia on community ecology (Strong et. al., 1984, Diamond and Case, 1987) which have covered a wide range of topics. The goal of the workshop at Davis was more narrow: to explore the role of scale in developing a theoretical approach to understanding communities. There are a number of aspects of scale that enter into attempts to understand ecological communities. One of the most basic is organizational scale. Should community ecology proceed by building up from population biology? This question and its ramifications are stressed throughout the book and explored in the first chapter by Simon Levin. Notions of scale have long been important in understanding physical systems. Thus, in understanding the interactions of organisms with their physical environment, questions of scale become paramount. These more physical questions illustrate the...

  4. Towards Integrating Political Ecology into Resilience-Based Management

    OpenAIRE

    Amy Quandt

    2016-01-01

    One of the biggest challenges faced today is how to sustainably manage social-ecological systems for both ecological conservation and human wellbeing. This paper explores two approaches to understanding such systems: resilience thinking and political ecology. Resilience thinking is a framework that emerged over the last 40 years as a management strategy for social-ecological systems, and a resilient social-ecological system is capable of absorbing disturbances and still retaining its basic fu...

  5. 78 FR 79579 - Energy Conservation Program: Alternative Efficiency Determination Methods, Basic Model Definition...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-31

    ... features to be excluded from certification, verification, and enforcement testing as long as specific... class* that must be tested Self-Contained Open Refrigerators... 2 Basic Models. Self-Contained Open... Open Freezers..... 2 Basic Models. Self-Contained Closed Refrigerators. 2 Basic Models. Self-Contained...

  6. Self-consistent approach for neutral community models with speciation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haegeman, Bart; Etienne, Rampal S.

    Hubbell's neutral model provides a rich theoretical framework to study ecological communities. By incorporating both ecological and evolutionary time scales, it allows us to investigate how communities are shaped by speciation processes. The speciation model in the basic neutral model is

  7. Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA : Part III

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costanza, Robert; Voinov, Alexey

    2001-01-01

    This special issue contains a group of eight modeling studies covering a range of ecological and economic systems and problems. The models were all developed using Stella®, an icon-based software package specifically designed for dynamic systems modeling. Models included in the special issue were

  8. Ecology and equity in global fisheries: Modelling policy options using theoretical distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rammelt, C.F.; van Schie, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Global fisheries present a typical case of political ecology or environmental injustice, i.e. a problem of distribution of resources within ecological limits. We built a stock-flow model to visualize this challenge and its dynamics, with both an ecological and a social dimension. We incorporated

  9. Ecological Interface Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vicente, Kim J.; Rasmussen, Jens

    1992-01-01

    A theoretical framework for designing interfaces for complex human-machine systems is proposed. The framework, called ecological interface design (EID), is based on the skills, rules, knowledge taxonomy of cognitive control. The basic goal of EID is twofold: first, not to force processing...

  10. Health insurance basic actuarial models

    CERN Document Server

    Pitacco, Ermanno

    2014-01-01

    Health Insurance aims at filling a gap in actuarial literature, attempting to solve the frequent misunderstanding in regards to both the purpose and the contents of health insurance products (and ‘protection products’, more generally) on the one hand, and the relevant actuarial structures on the other. In order to cover the basic principles regarding health insurance techniques, the first few chapters in this book are mainly devoted to the need for health insurance and a description of insurance products in this area (sickness insurance, accident insurance, critical illness covers, income protection, long-term care insurance, health-related benefits as riders to life insurance policies). An introduction to general actuarial and risk-management issues follows. Basic actuarial models are presented for sickness insurance and income protection (i.e. disability annuities). Several numerical examples help the reader understand the main features of pricing and reserving in the health insurance area. A short int...

  11. The Effect of Learning Cycle Model on Students’ Reducing Ecological Footprints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özgül Keleş

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to investigate effect of ecological footprint education, in which 5E learning cycle model is used, in reducing primary school students’ ecological footprints. The working group of the study is composed of 124 primary school students studying in 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th classes. In this study, 5E learning model is used in teaching a course in order to increase the participating students’ knowledge about ecological footprints and to calculate ecological footprints. Experimental method is used in this study. In data analysis, the paired samples t-test is used in for relevant samplings. The findings gathered indicate that ecological footprints of the participating students to the study decreased at the end of the study. It is determined that the mean of primary students’ ecological footprints differ from meaningfully according to level of the class and sex. Prospective solution offers are developed by handling the prospective effects of conclusions of the study on sustainable life and environmental education and conclusions’ importance in terms of learning and developing learning programmes with a critical point of view

  12. Multilevel modelling: Beyond the basic applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Daniel B; London, Kamala

    2009-05-01

    Over the last 30 years statistical algorithms have been developed to analyse datasets that have a hierarchical/multilevel structure. Particularly within developmental and educational psychology these techniques have become common where the sample has an obvious hierarchical structure, like pupils nested within a classroom. We describe two areas beyond the basic applications of multilevel modelling that are important to psychology: modelling the covariance structure in longitudinal designs and using generalized linear multilevel modelling as an alternative to methods from signal detection theory (SDT). Detailed code for all analyses is described using packages for the freeware R.

  13. Samdrup Jongkhar Initiative : a Model of Integrated Ecologically ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Samdrup Jongkhar Initiative : a Model of Integrated Ecologically-friendly ... which endeavors to integrate social, economic, cultural and environmental objectives. ... Brown Cloud penetrates Bhutan : ambient air quality and trans-boundary ...

  14. Strategies for fitting nonlinear ecological models in R, AD Model Builder, and BUGS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolker, Benjamin M.; Gardner, Beth; Maunder, Mark; Berg, Casper W.; Brooks, Mollie; Comita, Liza; Crone, Elizabeth; Cubaynes, Sarah; Davies, Trevor; de Valpine, Perry; Ford, Jessica; Gimenez, Olivier; Kéry, Marc; Kim, Eun Jung; Lennert-Cody, Cleridy; Magunsson, Arni; Martell, Steve; Nash, John; Nielson, Anders; Regentz, Jim; Skaug, Hans; Zipkin, Elise

    2013-01-01

    1. Ecologists often use nonlinear fitting techniques to estimate the parameters of complex ecological models, with attendant frustration. This paper compares three open-source model fitting tools and discusses general strategies for defining and fitting models. 2. R is convenient and (relatively) easy to learn, AD Model Builder is fast and robust but comes with a steep learning curve, while BUGS provides the greatest flexibility at the price of speed. 3. Our model-fitting suggestions range from general cultural advice (where possible, use the tools and models that are most common in your subfield) to specific suggestions about how to change the mathematical description of models to make them more amenable to parameter estimation. 4. A companion web site (https://groups.nceas.ucsb.edu/nonlinear-modeling/projects) presents detailed examples of application of the three tools to a variety of typical ecological estimation problems; each example links both to a detailed project report and to full source code and data.

  15. [Measuring water ecological carrying capacity with the ecosystem-service-based ecological footprint (ESEF) method: Theory, models and application].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Wen-jun; Min, Qing-wen; Li, Wen-hua; Fuller, Anthony M

    2015-04-01

    Integrated watershed management based on aquatic ecosystems has been increasingly acknowledged. Such a change in the philosophy of water environment management requires recognizing the carrying capacity of aquatic ecosystems for human society from a more general perspective. The concept of the water ecological carrying capacity is therefore put forward, which considers both water resources and water environment, connects socio-economic development to aquatic ecosystems and provides strong support for integrated watershed management. In this paper, the authors proposed an ESEF-based measure of water ecological carrying capacity and constructed ESEF-based models of water ecological footprint and capacity, aiming to evaluate water ecological carrying capacity with footprint methods. A regional model of Taihu Lake Basin was constructed and applied to evaluate the water ecological carrying capacity in Changzhou City which located in the upper reaches of the basin. Results showed that human demand for water ecosystem services in this city had exceeded the supply capacity of local aquatic ecosystems and the significant gap between demand and supply had jeopardized the sustainability of local aquatic ecosystems. Considering aqua-product provision, water supply and pollutant absorption in an integrated way, the scale of population and economy aquatic ecosystems in Changzhou could bear only 54% of the current status.

  16. Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cressie, Noel; Calder, Catherine A; Clark, James S; Ver Hoef, Jay M; Wikle, Christopher K

    2009-04-01

    Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.

  17. Population Ecology (Organizational Ecology): An Experiential Exercise Demonstrating How Organizations in an Industry Are Born, Change, and Die

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacMillan, Karen; Komar, Jennifer

    2018-01-01

    This article describes a classroom exercise that is designed to help students understand the basic tenets of population ecology (also known as organizational ecology). The macro-level, longitudinal approach to understanding organizations can be difficult for students to conceptualize as it involves systems thinking. This exercise makes the theory…

  18. Comparison of models used for ecological risk assessment and human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryti, R.T.; Gallegos, A.F.

    1994-01-01

    Models are used to derive action levels for site screening, or to estimate potential ecological or human health risks posed by potentially hazardous sites. At the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), which is RCRA-regulated, the human-health screening action levels are based on hazardous constituents described in RCRA Subpart S and RESRAD-derived soil guidelines (based on 10 mRem/year) for radiological constituents. Also, an ecological risk screening model was developed for a former firing site, where the primary constituents include depleted uranium, beryllium and lead. Sites that fail the screening models are evaluated with site-specific human risk assessment (using RESRAD and other approaches) and a detailed ecological effect model (ECOTRAN). ECOTRAN is based on pharmacokinetics transport modeling within a multitrophic-level biological-growth dynamics model. ECOTRAN provides detailed temporal records of contaminant concentrations in biota, and annual averages of these body burdens are compared to equivalent site-specific runs of the RESRAD model. The results show that thoughtful interpretation of the results of these models must be applied before they can be used for evaluation of current risk posed by sites and the benefits of various remedial options. This presentation compares the concentrations of biological media in the RESRAD screening runs to the concentrations in ecological endpoints predicted by the ecological screening model. The assumptions and limitations of these screening models and the decision process where these are screening models are applied are discussed

  19. Ecological models in support of regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: developing a strategy for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, Valery E; Hommen, Udo; Thorbek, Pernille; Heimbach, Fred; Van den Brink, Paul J; Wogram, Jörn; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Grimm, Volker

    2009-01-01

    This brief communication reports on the main findings of the LEMTOX workshop, held from 9 to 12 September 2007, at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) in Leipzig, Germany. The workshop brought together a diverse group of stakeholders from academia, regulatory authorities, contract research organizations, and industry, representing Europe, the United States, and Asia, to discuss the role of ecological modeling in risk assessments of pesticides, particularly under the European regulatory framework. The following questions were addressed: What are the potential benefits of using ecological models in pesticide registration and risk assessment? What obstacles prevent ecological modeling from being used routinely in regulatory submissions? What actions are needed to overcome the identified obstacles? What recommendations should be made to ensure good modeling practice in this context? The workshop focused exclusively on population models, and discussion was focused on those categories of population models that link effects on individuals (e.g., survival, growth, reproduction, behavior) to effects on population dynamics. The workshop participants concluded that the overall benefits of ecological modeling are that it could bring more ecology into ecological risk assessment, and it could provide an excellent tool for exploring the importance of, and interactions among, ecological complexities. However, there are a number of challenges that need to be overcome before such models will receive wide acceptance for pesticide risk assessment, despite having been used extensively in other contexts (e.g., conservation biology). The need for guidance on Good Modeling Practice (on model development, analysis, interpretation, evaluation, documentation, and communication), as well as the need for case studies that can be used to explore the added value of ecological models for risk assessment, were identified as top priorities. Assessing recovery potential of exposed

  20. METHODICAL MODEL FOR TEACHING BASIC SKI TURN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danijela Kuna

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available With the aim of forming an expert model of the most important operators for basic ski turn teaching in ski schools, an experiment was conducted on a sample of 20 ski experts from different countries (Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Slovenia. From the group of the most commonly used operators for teaching basic ski turn the experts picked the 6 most important: uphill turn and jumping into snowplough, basic turn with hand sideways, basic turn with clapping, ski poles in front, ski poles on neck, uphill turn with active ski guiding. Afterwards, ranking and selection of the most efficient operators was carried out. Due to the set aim of research, a Chi square test was used, as well as the differences between frequencies of chosen operators, differences between values of the most important operators and differences between experts due to their nationality. Statistically significant differences were noticed between frequencies of chosen operators (c2= 24.61; p=0.01, while differences between values of the most important operators were not obvious (c2= 1.94; p=0.91. Meanwhile, the differences between experts concerning thier nationality were only noticeable in the expert evaluation of ski poles on neck operator (c2=7.83; p=0.02. Results of current research are reflected in obtaining useful information about methodological priciples of learning basic ski turn organization in ski schools.

  1. Ecological-economic modeling for biodiversity management: potential, pitfalls, and prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wätzold, F.; Drechsler, M.; Armstrong, C.W.; Baumgärtner, S.; Grimm, V.; Huth, A.; Perrings, C.; Possingham, H.P.; Shogren, J.F.; Skonhoft, A.; Verboom-Vasiljev, J.; Wissel, C.

    2006-01-01

    Ecologists and economists both use models to help develop strategies for biodiversity management. The practical use of disciplinary models, however, can be limited because ecological models tend not to address the socioeconomic dimension of biodiversity management, whereas economic models tend to

  2. [An emergy-ecological footprint model based evaluation of ecological security at the old industrial area in Northeast China: A case study of Liaoning Province.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Qing; Lu, Cheng Peng; Zhou, Feng; Geng, Yong; Jing, Hong Shuang; Ren, Wan Xia; Xue, Bing

    2016-05-01

    Based on the integrated model of emergy-ecological footprint approaches, the ecological security of Liaoning Province, a typical case for the old industrial area, was quantitatively evaluated from 2003 to 2012, followed by a scenario analysis on the development trend of the ecological secu-rity by employing the gray kinetic model. The results showed that, from 2003 to 2012, the value of emergy ecological-capacity per capita in Liaoning Province decreased from 3.13 hm 2 to 3.07 hm 2 , while the emergy-ecological footprint increased from 13.88 hm 2 to 21.96 hm 2 , which indicated that the ecological deficit existed in Liaoning Province and the situation was getting worse. The ecological pressure index increased from 4.43 to 7.16 during the studied period, and the alert level of ecological security changed from light to middle level. According to the development trend, the emergy ecological capacity per capita during 2013-2022 would correspondingly decrease from 3.04 hm 2 to 2.98 hm 2 , while the emergy ecological footprint would increase from 22.72 hm 2 to 35.87 hm 2 , the ecological pressure index would increase from 7.46 to 12.04, and the ecological deficit would keep increasing and the ecological security level would slide into slightly unsafe condition. The alert level of ecological security would turn to be middle or serious, suggesting the problems in ecological safety needed to be solved urgently.

  3. Social Ecological Model Analysis for ICT Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagami, Jason

    2013-01-01

    ICT integration of teacher preparation programmes was undertaken by the Australian Teaching Teachers for the Future (TTF) project in all 39 Australian teacher education institutions and highlighted the need for guidelines to inform systemic ICT integration approaches. A Social Ecological Model (SEM) was used to positively inform integration…

  4. A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel D. Cavanagh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus is the Southern Ocean, notable for significant change with global implications, and on sea ice, given its crucial role in this dynamic ecosystem. We combined perspectives to evaluate the representation of sea ice in global climate models. With an emphasis on ecologically-relevant criteria (sea ice extent and seasonality we selected a subset of eight models that reliably reproduce extant sea ice distributions. While the model subset shows a similar mean change to the full ensemble in sea ice extent (approximately 50% decline in winter and 30% decline in summer, there is a marked reduction in the range. This improved the precision of projected future sea ice distributions by approximately one third, and means they are more amenable to ecological interpretation. We conclude that careful multidisciplinary evaluation of climate models, in conjunction with ongoing modeling advances, should form an integral part of utilizing model output.

  5. Violent Victimization and Perpetration during Adolescence: Developmental Stage Dependent Ecological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matjasko, Jennifer L.; Needham, Belinda L.; Grunden, Leslie N.; Farb, Amy Feldman

    2010-01-01

    Using a variant of the ecological-transactional model and developmental theories of delinquency on a nationally representative sample of adolescents, the current study explored the ecological predictors of violent victimization, perpetration, and both for three different developmental stages during adolescence. We examined the relative influence…

  6. Ecologic Niche Modeling of Blastomyces dermatitidis in Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Kurt D.; Meece, Jennifer K.; Archer, John R.; Peterson, A. Townsend

    2008-01-01

    Background Blastomycosis is a potentially fatal mycosis that is acquired by inhaling infectious spores of Blastomyces dermatitidis present in the environment. The ecology of this pathogen is poorly understood, in part because it has been extremely difficult to identify the niche(s) it occupies based on culture isolation of the organism from environmental samples. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigated the ecology of blastomycosis by performing maximum entropy modeling of exposure sites from 156 cases of human and canine blastomycosis to provide a regional-scale perspective of the geographic and ecologic distribution of B. dermatitidis in Wisconsin. Based on analysis with climatic, topographic, surface reflectance and other environmental variables, we predicted that ecologic conditions favorable for maintaining the fungus in nature occur predominantly within northern counties and counties along the western shoreline of Lake Michigan. Areas of highest predicted occurrence were often in proximity to waterways, especially in northcentral Wisconsin, where incidence of infection is highest. Ecologic conditions suitable for B. dermatitidis are present in urban and rural environments, and may differ at the extremes of distribution of the species in the state. Conclusions/Significance Our results provide a framework for a more informed search for specific environmental factors modulating B. dermatitidis occurrence and transmission and will be useful for improving public health awareness of relative exposure risks. PMID:18446224

  7. A new quantitative model of ecological compensation based on ecosystem capital in Zhejiang Province, China*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Yan; Huang, Jing-feng; Peng, Dai-liang

    2009-01-01

    Ecological compensation is becoming one of key and multidiscipline issues in the field of resources and environmental management. Considering the change relation between gross domestic product (GDP) and ecological capital (EC) based on remote sensing estimation, we construct a new quantitative estimate model for ecological compensation, using county as study unit, and determine standard value so as to evaluate ecological compensation from 2001 to 2004 in Zhejiang Province, China. Spatial differences of the ecological compensation were significant among all the counties or districts. This model fills up the gap in the field of quantitative evaluation of regional ecological compensation and provides a feasible way to reconcile the conflicts among benefits in the economic, social, and ecological sectors. PMID:19353749

  8. Ecological forecasting under climatic data uncertainty: a case study in phenological modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, Benjamin I; Terando, Adam; Steiner, Allison

    2010-01-01

    Forecasting ecological responses to climate change represents a challenge to the ecological community because models are often site-specific and climate data are lacking at appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions. We use a case study approach to demonstrate uncertainties in ecological predictions related to the driving climatic input data. We use observational records, derived observational datasets (e.g. interpolated observations from local weather stations and gridded data products) and output from general circulation models (GCM) in conjunction with site based phenology models to estimate the first flowering date (FFD) for three woody flowering species. Using derived observations over the modern time period, we find that cold biases and temperature trends lead to biased FFD simulations for all three species. Observational datasets resolved at the daily time step result in better FFD predictions compared to simulations using monthly resolution. Simulations using output from an ensemble of GCM and regional climate models over modern and future time periods have large intra-ensemble spreads and tend to underestimate observed FFD trends for the modern period. These results indicate that certain forcing datasets may be missing key features needed to generate accurate hindcasts at the local scale (e.g. trends, temporal resolution), and that standard modeling techniques (e.g. downscaling, ensemble mean, etc) may not necessarily improve the prediction of the ecological response. Studies attempting to simulate local ecological processes under modern and future climate forcing therefore need to quantify and propagate the climate data uncertainties in their simulations.

  9. Ecological models for regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: Developing a strategy for the future.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorbek, P.; Forbes, V.; Heimbach, F.; Hommen, U.; Thulke, H.H.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2010-01-01

    Ecological Models for Regulatory Risk Assessments of Pesticides: Developing a Strategy for the Future provides a coherent, science-based view on ecological modeling for regulatory risk assessments. It discusses the benefits of modeling in the context of registrations, identifies the obstacles that

  10. Multi-Attribute Modelling of Economic and Ecological Impacts of Cropping Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bohanec, M.; Dzeroski, S.; Znidarsic, M.; Messéan, A.; Scatasta, S.; Wesseler, J.H.H.

    2004-01-01

    Modelling of economic and ecological impacts of genetically modified crops is a demanding task. We present some preliminary attempts made for the purpose of the ECOGEN project "Soil ecological and economic evaluation of genetically modified crops". One of the goals of the project is to develop a

  11. Relationship among values, beliefs, norms and ecological behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González López, Antonio; Amérigo Cuervo-Arango, María

    2008-11-01

    The present study focuses mainly on the relationship between psychological constructs and ecological behaviour. Empirical analysis links personal values, ecological beliefs, consequences of environmental conditions, denial of ecological obligation, environmental control, personal norms and environment protection behaviour. Survey data from a path analysis of a Spanish sample of 403 individuals were used, showing that ecological beliefs, personal norms and eco-altruistic values have become the main psychological explanatory variables of environment protective behaviour. Ecological beliefs, when measured by the New Ecological Paradigm Scale, affected ecological behaviour decisively. Environmental and altruistic values were shown to be related to moral obligation, and a basic variable to understand behaviour. Personal norm mediated the effects of values and environmental control on ecological behaviour.

  12. Ecological economics and global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maier-Rigaud, G.

    1991-09-01

    What is the subject of ecology? What is the primary concern of economics? How can the interface between ecology and economics be described? Is there a relationship between the two different sciences which constitutes a new research field? This book raises some of these basic questions and reflects on major misleading assumptions research in ecological economics unwittingly relies on. An outlook is given as to the aspects on which research in this field should now primarily concentrate. This publication addresses first of all natural scientists and politicians, though economists, too, might find some new aspects apart from traditional economic reasoning. (orig./KW)

  13. A roadmap for bridging basic and applied research in forensic entomology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomberlin, J K; Mohr, R; Benbow, M E; Tarone, A M; VanLaerhoven, S

    2011-01-01

    The National Research Council issued a report in 2009 that heavily criticized the forensic sciences. The report made several recommendations that if addressed would allow the forensic sciences to develop a stronger scientific foundation. We suggest a roadmap for decomposition ecology and forensic entomology hinging on a framework built on basic research concepts in ecology, evolution, and genetics. Unifying both basic and applied research fields under a common umbrella of terminology and structure would facilitate communication in the field and the production of scientific results. It would also help to identify novel research areas leading to a better understanding of principal underpinnings governing ecosystem structure, function, and evolution while increasing the accuracy of and ability to interpret entomological evidence collected from crime scenes. By following the proposed roadmap, a bridge can be built between basic and applied decomposition ecology research, culminating in science that could withstand the rigors of emerging legal and cultural expectations.

  14. Evaluation of cadmium, lead, zinc and copper levels in selected ecological cereal food products and their non-ecological counterparts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slepecka Katarzyna

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In the everyday human diet, cereal products are considered to be basics. Such food should have healthy properties and not contain harmful additives, especially heavy metals as exposure to low doses of such xenobiotics can adversely affect human health. Ecological farming is the answer to consumer expectations regarding food safety, and ecological products are recommended as a basis for proper nutrition, despite the higher cost of their purchase. The present study was carried out to evaluate the content of heavy metals in ecological cereal products and their non-ecological analogues.

  15. Ecological Niche Modelling of the Bacillus anthracis A1.a sub-lineage in Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax, is a globally distributed zoonotic pathogen that continues to be a veterinary and human health problem in Central Asia. We used a database of anthrax outbreak locations in Kazakhstan and a subset of genotyped isolates to model the geographic distribution and ecological associations of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan. The aims of the study were to test the influence of soil variables on a previous ecological niche based prediction of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan and to determine if a single sub-lineage of B. anthracis occupies a unique ecological niche. Results The addition of soil variables to the previously developed ecological niche model did not appreciably alter the limits of the predicted geographic or ecological distribution of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan. The A1.a experiment predicted the sub-lineage to be present over a larger geographic area than did the outbreak based experiment containing multiple lineages. Within the geographic area predicted to be suitable for B. anthracis by all ten best subset models, the A1.a sub-lineage was associated with a wider range of ecological tolerances than the outbreak-soil experiment. Analysis of rule types showed that logit rules predominate in the outbreak-soil experiment and range rules in the A1.a sub-lineage experiment. Random sub-setting of locality points suggests that models of B. anthracis distribution may be sensitive to sample size. Conclusions Our analysis supports careful consideration of the taxonomic resolution of data used to create ecological niche models. Further investigations into the environmental affinities of individual lineages and sub-lineages of B. anthracis will be useful in understanding the ecology of the disease at large and small scales. With model based predictions serving as approximations of disease risk, these efforts will improve the efficacy of public health interventions for anthrax prevention and control. PMID:22152056

  16. Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I; Whitlock, Cathy

    2014-01-01

    Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity.

  17. Range bagging: a new method for ecological niche modelling from presence-only data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drake, John M

    2015-06-06

    The ecological niche is the set of environments in which a population of a species can persist without introduction of individuals from other locations. A good mathematical or computational representation of the niche is a prerequisite to addressing many questions in ecology, biogeography, evolutionary biology and conservation. A particularly challenging question for ecological niche modelling is the problem of presence-only modelling. That is, can an ecological niche be identified from records drawn only from the set of niche environments without records from non-niche environments for comparison? Here, I introduce a new method for ecological niche modelling from presence-only data called range bagging. Range bagging draws on the concept of a species' environmental range, but was inspired by the empirical performance of ensemble learning algorithms in other areas of ecological research. This paper extends the concept of environmental range to multiple dimensions and shows that range bagging is computationally feasible even when the number of environmental dimensions is large. The target of the range bagging base learner is an environmental tolerance of the species in a projection of its niche and is therefore an ecologically interpretable property of a species' biological requirements. The computational complexity of range bagging is linear in the number of examples, which compares favourably with the main alternative, Qhull. In conclusion, range bagging appears to be a reasonable choice for niche modelling in applications in which a presence-only method is desired and may provide a solution to problems in other disciplines where one-class classification is required, such as outlier detection and concept learning.

  18. Theoretical ecology as etiological from the start.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donhauser, Justin

    2016-12-01

    The world's leading environmental advisory institutions look to ecological theory and research as an objective guide for policy and resource management decision-making. In addition to the theoretical and broadly philosophical merits of doing so, it is therefore practically significant to clear up confusions about ecology's conceptual foundations and to clarify the basic workings of inferential methods used in the science. Through discussion of key moments in the genesis of the theoretical branch of ecology, this essay elucidates a general heuristic role of teleological metaphors in ecological research and defuses certain enduring confusions about work in ecology. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  19. Integrated ecological-economic fisheries models - evaluation, review and challenges for implementation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Thunberg, Eric; Holland, Daniel S.

    2018-01-01

    and comparative evaluation of 35 IESFM´s applied to marine fisheries and marine ecosystem resources to identify the characteristics that determine their usefulness, effectiveness and implementation. The focus is on fully integrated models that allow for feedbacks between ecological and human processes though......Marine ecosystems evolve under many interconnected and area-specific pressures. In order to fulfill society's intensifying and diversifying needs whilst ensuring ecologically sustainable development, more effective marine spatial planning and broader-scope management of marine resources...... is necessary. Integrated ecological–socioeconomic fisheries models (IESFM) of marine systems are nee¬ded to evaluate impacts and sustainability of potential management actions and understand, and anti¬ci¬pate ecological, economic, and social dynamics at a range of scales from local to national and regional...

  20. Representing and managing uncertainty in qualitative ecological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nuttle, T.; Bredeweg, B.; Salles, P.; Neumann, M.

    2009-01-01

    Ecologists and decision makers need ways to understand systems, test ideas, and make predictions and explanations about systems. However, uncertainty about causes and effects of processes and parameter values is pervasive in models of ecological systems. Uncertainty associated with incomplete

  1. Of Models and Meanings: Cultural Resilience in Social–Ecological Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crane, T.A.

    2010-01-01

    Modeling has emerged as a key technology in analysis of social–ecological systems. However, the tendency for modeling to focus on the mechanistic materiality of biophysical systems obscures the diversity of performative social behaviors and normative cultural positions of actors within the modeled

  2. Crisis in Context Theory: An Ecological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myer, Rick A.; Moore, Holly B.

    2006-01-01

    This article outlines a theory for understanding the impact of a crisis on individuals and organizations. Crisis in context theory (CCT) is grounded in an ecological model and based on literature in the field of crisis intervention and on personal experiences of the authors. A graphic representation denotes key components and premises of CCT,…

  3. Building Better Ecological Machines: Complexity Theory and Alternative Economic Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jess Bier

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Computer models of the economy are regularly used to predict economic phenomena and set financial policy. However, the conventional macroeconomic models are currently being reimagined after they failed to foresee the current economic crisis, the outlines of which began to be understood only in 2007-2008. In this article we analyze the most prominent of this reimagining: Agent-Based models (ABMs. ABMs are an influential alternative to standard economic models, and they are one focus of complexity theory, a discipline that is a more open successor to the conventional chaos and fractal modeling of the 1990s. The modelers who create ABMs claim that their models depict markets as ecologies, and that they are more responsive than conventional models that depict markets as machines. We challenge this presentation, arguing instead that recent modeling efforts amount to the creation of models as ecological machines. Our paper aims to contribute to an understanding of the organizing metaphors of macroeconomic models, which we argue is relevant conceptually and politically, e.g., when models are used for regulatory purposes.

  4. Adding Value to Ecological Risk Assessment with Population Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forbes, Valery E.; Calow, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2011-01-01

    population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between...

  5. Development of a zoning-based environmental-ecological-coupled model for lakes to assess lake restoration effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Mengjia; Zou, Changxin; Zhao, Yanwei

    2017-04-01

    Environmental/ecological models are widely used for lake management as they provide a means to understand physical, chemical and biological processes in highly complex ecosystems. Most research focused on the development of environmental (water quality) and ecological models, separately. Limited studies were developed to couple the two models, and in these limited coupled models, a lake was regarded as a whole for analysis (i.e., considering the lake to be one well-mixed box), which was appropriate for small-scale lakes and was not sufficient to capture spatial variations within middle-scale or large-scale lakes. This paper seeks to establish a zoning-based environmental-ecological-coupled model for a lake. The Baiyangdian Lake, the largest freshwater lake in Northern China, was adopted as the study case. The coupled lake models including a hydrodynamics and water quality model established by MIKE21 and a compartmental ecological model used STELLA software have been established for middle-sized Baiyangdian Lake to realize the simulation of spatial variations of ecological conditions. On the basis of the flow field distribution results generated by MIKE21 hydrodynamics model, four water area zones were used as an example for compartmental ecological model calibration and validation. The results revealed that the developed coupled lake models can reasonably reflected the changes of the key state variables although there remain some state variables that are not well represented by the model due to the low quality of field monitoring data. Monitoring sites in a compartment may not be representative of the water quality and ecological conditions in the entire compartment even though that is the intention of compartment-based model design. There was only one ecological observation from a single monitoring site for some periods. This single-measurement issue may cause large discrepancies particularly when sampled site is not representative of the whole compartment. The

  6. Homogenization of Large-Scale Movement Models in Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garlick, M.J.; Powell, J.A.; Hooten, M.B.; McFarlane, L.R.

    2011-01-01

    A difficulty in using diffusion models to predict large scale animal population dispersal is that individuals move differently based on local information (as opposed to gradients) in differing habitat types. This can be accommodated by using ecological diffusion. However, real environments are often spatially complex, limiting application of a direct approach. Homogenization for partial differential equations has long been applied to Fickian diffusion (in which average individual movement is organized along gradients of habitat and population density). We derive a homogenization procedure for ecological diffusion and apply it to a simple model for chronic wasting disease in mule deer. Homogenization allows us to determine the impact of small scale (10-100 m) habitat variability on large scale (10-100 km) movement. The procedure generates asymptotic equations for solutions on the large scale with parameters defined by small-scale variation. The simplicity of this homogenization procedure is striking when compared to the multi-dimensional homogenization procedure for Fickian diffusion,and the method will be equally straightforward for more complex models. ?? 2010 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  7. Architecture of the Neurath Basic Model View Controller

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Yermashov

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The idea of the Neurath Basic Model View Controller (NBMVC appeared during the discussion of the design of domain-specific modeling tools based on the Neurath Modeling Language [Yer06]. The NBMVC is the core of the modeling process within the modeling environment. It reduces complexity out of the design process by providing domain-specific interfaces between the developer and the model. These interfaces help to organize and manipulate the model. The organization includes, for example, a layer with visual components to drop them in and filter them out. The control routines includes, for example, model transformations.

  8. Ecological units: definitions and application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jax, Kurt

    2006-09-01

    Concepts of ecological units, such as population, community, and ecosystem, are at the basis of ecological theory and research and have increasingly become the focus of conservation strategies. Concepts of these units still suffer from inconsistencies and confusions over terminology. The different concepts are treated here together as a common "conceptual cluster," with similar ecological functions (roles) and similar problems in their definition and use. An analysis of the multitude of existing terms and concepts that have been developed for these units reveals that they differ with respect to at least four basic criteria: (i) the questions as to whether they are defined statistically or via a network of interactions; (ii) if their boundaries are drawn by topographical or process-related criteria; (iii) how high the required internal relationships are; and (iv) if they are perceived as "real" entities or abstractions by an observer The various definitions cannot be easily sorted into just a few types, but they can be characterized by several independent criteria. I argue that serious problems arise if the different possibilities of defining ecological units are not recognized and if the concepts are perceived as self-evident. The different concepts of ecological units should be defined and used in a philosophically informed manner I propose a dual approach to the use of ecological units. Generic meanings of the main concepts (especially population, community, and ecosystem) should be retained only as heuristically useful perspectives, while specific and "operational" definitions of the concepts as units should be developed, depending on specific purposes of their use. Some thoughts on the basic requirements for such definitions and the domains of their uses are briefly explained.

  9. Integrating human and natural systems in community psychology: an ecological model of stewardship behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moskell, Christine; Allred, Shorna Broussard

    2013-03-01

    Community psychology (CP) research on the natural environment lacks a theoretical framework for analyzing the complex relationship between human systems and the natural world. We introduce other academic fields concerned with the interactions between humans and the natural environment, including environmental sociology and coupled human and natural systems. To demonstrate how the natural environment can be included within CP's ecological framework, we propose an ecological model of urban forest stewardship action. Although ecological models of behavior in CP have previously modeled health behaviors, we argue that these frameworks are also applicable to actions that positively influence the natural environment. We chose the environmental action of urban forest stewardship because cities across the United States are planting millions of trees and increased citizen participation in urban tree planting and stewardship will be needed to sustain the benefits provided by urban trees. We used the framework of an ecological model of behavior to illustrate multiple levels of factors that may promote or hinder involvement in urban forest stewardship actions. The implications of our model for the development of multi-level ecological interventions to foster stewardship actions are discussed, as well as directions for future research to further test and refine the model.

  10. On the specification of structural equation models for ecological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, J.B.; Michael, Anderson T.; Han, O.; Scheiner, S.M.

    2010-01-01

    The use of structural equation modeling (SEM) is often motivated by its utility for investigating complex networks of relationships, but also because of its promise as a means of representing theoretical concepts using latent variables. In this paper, we discuss characteristics of ecological theory and some of the challenges for proper specification of theoretical ideas in structural equation models (SE models). In our presentation, we describe some of the requirements for classical latent variable models in which observed variables (indicators) are interpreted as the effects of underlying causes. We also describe alternative model specifications in which indicators are interpreted as having causal influences on the theoretical concepts. We suggest that this latter nonclassical specification (which involves another variable type-the composite) will often be appropriate for ecological studies because of the multifaceted nature of our theoretical concepts. In this paper, we employ the use of meta-models to aid the translation of theory into SE models and also to facilitate our ability to relate results back to our theories. We demonstrate our approach by showing how a synthetic theory of grassland biodiversity can be evaluated using SEM and data from a coastal grassland. In this example, the theory focuses on the responses of species richness to abiotic stress and disturbance, both directly and through intervening effects on community biomass. Models examined include both those based on classical forms (where each concept is represented using a single latent variable) and also ones in which the concepts are recognized to be multifaceted and modeled as such. To address the challenge of matching SE models with the conceptual level of our theory, two approaches are illustrated, compositing and aggregation. Both approaches are shown to have merits, with the former being preferable for cases where the multiple facets of a concept have widely differing effects in the

  11. The ways to increase the Ukrainian NPPs ecological safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbashev, S.V.

    2005-01-01

    The analysis of the approaches to achieve the basic goals of radiation and ecological safety at Ukrainian NPPs has been made. The problems, solution of which will allow to speak of a realization at NPPs of a cardinally other than now ecological approach to the estimation of nuclear energy's influence on the environment and ecological safety maintenance, has been numbered

  12. [The emphases and basic procedures of genetic counseling in psychotherapeutic model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuan-Zhi; Zhong, Nanbert

    2006-11-01

    The emphases and basic procedures of genetic counseling are all different with those in old models. In the psychotherapeutic model, genetic counseling will not only focus on counselees' genetic disorders and birth defects, but also their psychological problems. "Client-centered therapy" termed by Carl Rogers plays an important role in genetic counseling process. The basic procedures of psychotherapeutic model of genetic counseling include 7 steps: initial contact, introduction, agendas, inquiry of family history, presenting information, closing the session and follow-up.

  13. [International trends of applied ecology and its future development in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Qixing; Sun, Shunjiang

    2002-07-01

    Internationally applied ecology was born around 25-40 years ago in order to adapt and serve the needs of mitigating increasingly environmental pollution and ecological destroy in developed western countries at that time. All the times applied ecological principles thus underpin most efforts at solving increasingly deterioration of natural resources and serious eco-environmental problems as its keystone and researching kernel with the development of the subject. At the advent of the 21st century, human beings enter into the age of applied ecology. There are five international features of applied ecology, including more attention to many-sided applications, special emphasis on the intersection with engineering, strongly keeping on mutual links with basic ecology, omnidirectional adoption of new methods and new technology, and side-by-side trends of microcosmic mechanisms and macroscopical regulation. Although we must connect with international applied ecology and absorb distillates from the subject in developed western countries, development of applied ecology in China in the future, in particular, at the beginnings of the 21st century should not deviate from aiming at the solution of increasingly environmental pollution and ecological destroy that is one of the most important basic situations of the country.

  14. Global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broer, Hendrik; Gaiko, Valery A.

    2010-01-01

    in this paper we complete the global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model. In particular, studying global bifurcations of singular points and limit cycles, we prove that the corresponding dynamical system has at most two limit cycles. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. INTEGRATION OF AN ECONOMIC WITH AN ECOLOGICAL MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    We summarize our work on integration of an economy under imperfect competition with a simple Lotka-Volterra type ecological model. Firms and households operate within a single period planning horizon, thus there is no savings or investment. Wages are set by a dominant employer. P...

  16. Basic Modelling principles and Validation of Software for Prediction of Collision Damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    2000-01-01

    This report describes basic modelling principles, the theoretical background and validation examples for the collision damage prediction module in the ISESO stand-alone software.......This report describes basic modelling principles, the theoretical background and validation examples for the collision damage prediction module in the ISESO stand-alone software....

  17. Computational modeling for eco engineering: Making the connections between engineering and ecology (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, C.

    2013-12-01

    Ecological engineering, or eco engineering, is an emerging field in the study of integrating ecology and engineering, concerned with the design, monitoring, and construction of ecosystems. According to Mitsch (1996) 'the design of sustainable ecosystems intends to integrate human society with its natural environment for the benefit of both'. Eco engineering emerged as a new idea in the early 1960s, and the concept has seen refinement since then. As a commonly practiced field of engineering it is relatively novel. Howard Odum (1963) and others first introduced it as 'utilizing natural energy sources as the predominant input to manipulate and control environmental systems'. Mtisch and Jorgensen (1989) were the first to define eco engineering, to provide eco engineering principles and conceptual eco engineering models. Later they refined the definition and increased the number of principles. They suggested that the goals of eco engineering are: a) the restoration of ecosystems that have been substantially disturbed by human activities such as environmental pollution or land disturbance, and b) the development of new sustainable ecosystems that have both human and ecological values. Here a more detailed overview of eco engineering is provided, particularly with regard to how engineers and ecologists are utilizing multi-dimensional computational models to link ecology and engineering, resulting in increasingly successful project implementation. Descriptions are provided pertaining to 1-, 2- and 3-dimensional hydrodynamic models and their use at small- and large-scale applications. A range of conceptual models that have been developed to aid the in the creation of linkages between ecology and engineering are discussed. Finally, several case studies that link ecology and engineering via computational modeling are provided. These studies include localized stream rehabilitation, spawning gravel enhancement on a large river system, and watershed-wide floodplain modeling of

  18. Selected developments and applications of Leontief models in industrial ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroemman, Anders Hammer

    2005-01-01

    Thesis Outline: This thesis investigates issues of environmental repercussions on processes of three spatial scales; a single process plant, a regional value chain and the global economy. The first paper investigates environmental repercussions caused by a single process plant using an open Leontief model with combined physical and monetary units in what is commonly referred to as a hybrid life cycle model. Physical capital requirements are treated as any other good. Resources and environmental stressors, thousands in total, are accounted for and assessed by aggregation using standard life cycle impact assessment methods. The second paper presents a methodology for establishing and combining input-output matrices and life-cycle inventories in a hybrid life cycle inventory. Information contained within different requirements matrices are combined and issues of double counting that arise are addressed and methods for eliminating these are developed and presented. The third paper is an extension of the first paper. Here the system analyzed is increased from a single plant and component in the production network to a series of nodes, constituting a value chain. The hybrid framework proposed in paper two is applied to analyze the use of natural gas, methanol and hydrogen as transportation fuels. The fourth paper presents the development of a World Trade Model with Bilateral Trade, an extension of the World Trade Model (Duchin, 2005). The model is based on comparative advantage and is formulated as a linear program. It endogenously determines the regional output of sectors and bilateral trade flows between regions. The model may be considered a Leontief substitution model where substitution of production is allowed between regions. The primal objective of the model requires the minimization of global factor costs. The fifth paper demonstrates how the World Trade Model with Bilateral Trade can be applied to address questions relevant for industrial ecology. The model is

  19. Derivative Geometric Modeling of Basic Rotational Solids on CATIA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MENG Xiang-bao; PAN Zi-jian; ZHU Yu-xiang; LI Jun

    2011-01-01

    Hybrid models derived from rotational solids like cylinders, cones and spheres were implemented on CATIA software. Firstly, make the isosceles triangular prism, cuboid, cylinder, cone, sphere, and the prism with tangent conic and curved triangle ends, the cuboid with tangent cylindrical and curved rectangle ends, the cylinder with tangent spherical and curved circular ends as the basic Boolean deference units to the primary cylinders, cones and spheres on symmetrical and some critical geometric conditions, forming a series of variant solid models. Secondly, make the deference units above as the basic union units to the main cylinders, cones, and spheres accordingly, forming another set of solid models. Thirdly, make the tangent ends of union units into oblique conic, cylindrical, or with revolved triangular pyramid, quarterly cylinder and annulus ends on sketch based features to the main cylinders, cones, and spheres repeatedly, thus forming still another set of solid models. It is expected that these derivative models be beneficial both in the structure design, hybrid modeling, and finite element analysis of engineering components and in comprehensive training of spatial configuration of engineering graphics.

  20. About the Properties of a Modified Generalized Beverton-Holt Equation in Ecology Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. De La Sen

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is devoted to the study of a generalized modified version of the well-known Beverton-Holt equation in ecology. The proposed model describes the population evolution of some species in a certain habitat driven by six parametrical sequences, namely, the intrinsic growth rate (associated with the reproduction capability, the degree of sympathy of the species with the habitat (described by a so-called environment carrying capacity, a penalty term to deal with overpopulation levels, the harvesting (fishing or hunting regulatory quota, or related to use of pesticides when fighting damaging plagues, and the independent consumption which basically quantifies predation. The independent consumption is considered as a part of a more general additive disturbance which also potentially includes another extra additive disturbance term which might be attributed to net migration from or to the habitat or modeling measuring errors. Both potential contributions are included for generalization purposes in the proposed modified generalized Beverton-Holt equation. The properties of stability and boundedness of the solution sequences, equilibrium points of the stationary model, and the existence of oscillatory solution sequences are investigated. A numerical example for a population of aphids is investigated with the theoretical tools developed in the paper.

  1. Consumption and environment - ecological economic perspectives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2006-01-01

    motivation for dealing with consumption in ecological economics is presented. Basically, ecological economists agree that there are limits to the material growth of the economy, and that these limits have already been reached or exceeded. As there is an ethical challenge to increase environmental space......Consumption and environment – ecological economic perspectives Summary Research on issues related to consumption and environment has grown rapidly since the middle of the 1990s, and several disciplines as well as transdisciplinary fields have contributed to this development. The present papers...... constitute a small part of this wave of interest, and they are mostly framed as belonging to ecological economics. The collection starts with an introduction to the field of consumption research within ecological economics and then follows a series of papers on more specific issues. The introductionary...

  2. Ecological geology environmental assessment of open-pit mines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong Shuangfa; Jiang Xue

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, there is a detail description of ecological geology environmental assessment of open-pit mines, including method, process and results. We took ecological geology environmental assessment work on the base of the results of some open-pit mines such as extremely low content magnetite in Hebei Province, inducted and summarized the ecological geology environment quality. The results are reasonable. It provides basic data for the second mines programming in Hebei Province. (authors)

  3. Double coupling: modeling subjectivity and asymmetric organization in social-ecological systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Manuel-Navarrete

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Social-ecological organization is a multidimensional phenomenon that combines material and symbolic processes. However, the coupling between social and ecological subsystem is often conceptualized as purely material, thus reducing the symbolic dimension to its behavioral and actionable expressions. In this paper I conceptualize social-ecological systems as doubly coupled. On the one hand, material expressions of socio-cultural processes affect and are affected by ecological dynamics. On the other hand, coupled social-ecological material dynamics are concurrently coupled with subjective dynamics via coding, decoding, personal experience, and human agency. This second coupling operates across two organizationally heterogeneous dimensions: material and symbolic. Although resilience thinking builds on the recognition of organizational asymmetry between living and nonliving systems, it has overlooked the equivalent asymmetry between ecological and socio-cultural subsystems. Three guiding concepts are proposed to formalize double coupling. The first one, social-ecological asymmetry, expands on past seminal work on ecological self-organization to incorporate reflexivity and subjectivity in social-ecological modeling. Organizational asymmetry is based in the distinction between social rules, which are symbolically produced and changed through human agents' reflexivity and purpose, and biophysical rules, which are determined by functional relations between ecological components. The second guiding concept, conscious power, brings to the fore human agents' distinctive capacity to produce our own subjective identity and the consequences of this capacity for social-ecological organization. The third concept, congruence between subjective and objective dynamics, redefines sustainability as contingent on congruent relations between material and symbolic processes. Social-ecological theories and analyses based on these three guiding concepts would support the

  4. Temporal Deductive Verification of Basic ASM Models

    OpenAIRE

    Daho, Hocine El-Habib; University of Oran; Benhamamouch, Djillali; University of Oran

    2010-01-01

    Abstract State Machines (ASMs, for short) provide a practical new computational model which has been applied in the area of software engineering for systems design and analysis. However, reasoning about ASM models occurs, not within a formal deductive system, but basically in the classical informal proofs style of mathematics. Several formal verification approaches for proving correctness of ASM models have been investigated. In this paper we consider the use of the TLA+logic for the deductive...

  5. Assessing ecological sustainability in urban planning - EcoBalance model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahlgren, I., Email: irmeli.wahlgren@vtt.fi

    2012-06-15

    Urban planning solutions and decisions have large-scale significance for ecological sustainability (eco-efficiency) the consumption of energy and other natural resources, the production of greenhouse gas and other emissions and the costs caused by urban form. Climate change brings new and growing challenges for urban planning. The EcoBalance model was developed to assess the sustainability of urban form and has been applied at various planning levels: regional plans, local master plans and detailed plans. The EcoBalance model estimates the total consumption of energy and other natural resources, the production of emissions and wastes and the costs caused directly and indirectly by urban form on a life cycle basis. The results of the case studies provide information about the ecological impacts of various solutions in urban development. (orig.)

  6. [Ecological suitability assessment and optimization of urban land expansion space in Guiyang City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Cong-hao; Li, Yang-bing; Feng, Yuan-song

    2015-09-01

    Based on the case study of Guiyang City, the minimum cumulative resistance model integrating construction land source, ecological rigid constraints and ecological function type resistance factor, was built by use of cost-distance analysis of urban spatial expansion resistance value through ArcGIS 9.3 software in this paper. Then, the ecological resistance of city spatial expansion of Guiyang from 2010 was simulated dynamically and the ecological suitability classification of city spatial expansion was assessed. According to the conflict between the newly increased city construction land in 2014 and its ecological suitability, the unreasonable city land spatial allocation was discussed also. The results showed that the ecological suitability zonation and the city expansion in the study area were basically consistent during 2010-2014, but the conflict between the new city construction and its land ecological suitability was more serious. The ecological conflict area accounted for 58.2% of the new city construction sites, 35.4% of which happened in the ecological control area, 13.9% in the limited development area and 8.9% in the prohibition development area. The intensification of ecological land use conflict would impair the ecological service function and ecological safety, so this paper put forward the city spatial expansion optimal path to preserve the ecological land and improve the construction land space pattern of Guiyang City so as to ensure its ecological safety.

  7. A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: a first step towards ecological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

    2015-06-01

    In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

  8. A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: A first step towards ecological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

    2015-01-01

    In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

  9. Stochastic Spatial Models in Ecology: A Statistical Physics Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pigolotti, Simone; Cencini, Massimo; Molina, Daniel; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2017-11-01

    Ecosystems display a complex spatial organization. Ecologists have long tried to characterize them by looking at how different measures of biodiversity change across spatial scales. Ecological neutral theory has provided simple predictions accounting for general empirical patterns in communities of competing species. However, while neutral theory in well-mixed ecosystems is mathematically well understood, spatial models still present several open problems, limiting the quantitative understanding of spatial biodiversity. In this review, we discuss the state of the art in spatial neutral theory. We emphasize the connection between spatial ecological models and the physics of non-equilibrium phase transitions and how concepts developed in statistical physics translate in population dynamics, and vice versa. We focus on non-trivial scaling laws arising at the critical dimension D = 2 of spatial neutral models, and their relevance for biological populations inhabiting two-dimensional environments. We conclude by discussing models incorporating non-neutral effects in the form of spatial and temporal disorder, and analyze how their predictions deviate from those of purely neutral theories.

  10. Ecological prediction with nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional data models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wen-Hsi; Wikle, Christopher K.; Holan, Scott H.; Wildhaber, Mark L.

    2013-01-01

    Time-frequency analysis has become a fundamental component of many scientific inquiries. Due to improvements in technology, the amount of high-frequency signals that are collected for ecological and other scientific processes is increasing at a dramatic rate. In order to facilitate the use of these data in ecological prediction, we introduce a class of nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional models that can identify important features of each signal as well as the interaction of signals corresponding to the response variable of interest. Our methodology is of independent interest and utilizes stochastic search variable selection to improve model selection and performs model averaging to enhance prediction. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach through simulation and by application to predicting spawning success of shovelnose sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River.

  11. Causes in the construction of causal law: A psycho-ecological model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Gerald

    2010-01-01

    The article presents an integrated psycho-ecological model of the construction of law, with implications for practice in law and mental health. The model is based on a series of concentric circles, each representing a layer of influence on the construction of law. The circle furthest removed from the center represents the influence of culture, society and industry, in particular, and the circle at the center of the circle represents the case at hand, for example, about individual complainant or mass action. The article begins by arguing that basic terms in relation to cause need clarification and also work is needed to disambiguate the concepts involved. After dealing with these issues, the article examines science and mental health. Is the scientific evidence presented by the expert sufficiently reliable and valid to meet admissibility standards of good compared to poor or junk science? Is the research undertaken for court or presented to court biased, with factors hidden, such as links to industry. Are individual evaluations conducted with biased science serving to justify partial conclusions? The dangers of powerful influences on the construction of law are highlighted, for example, related to the individual complainant malingering and the insurance industry protecting its financial interests at the expense of genuinely injured patients. In conclusion, suggestions for empirical research are offered. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Comprehensive evaluation of ecological security in mining area based on PSR-ANP-GRAY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Gang; Yu, Baohua; Li, Shuzhou; Zhu, Yanna

    2017-09-06

    With the large exploitation of mineral resources, a series of problems have appeared in the ecological environment of the mining area. Therefore, evaluating the ecological security of mining area is of great significance to promote its healthy development. In this paper, the evaluation index system of ecological security in mining area was constructed from three dimensions of nature, society and economy, combined with Pressure-State-Response framework model. Then network analytic hierarchy process and GRAY relational analysis method were used to evaluate the ecological security of the region, and the weighted correlation degree of ecological security was calculated through the index data of a coal mine from 2012 to 2016 in China. The results show that the ecological security in the coal mine area is on the rise as a whole, though it alternatively rose and dropped from 2012 to 2016. Among them, the ecological security of the study mining area is at the general security level from 2012 to 2015, and at a relatively safe level in 2016. It shows that the ecological environment of the study mining area can basically meet the requirement of the survival and development of the enterprises.

  13. Developing predictive systems models to address complexity and relevance for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, Valery E; Calow, Peter

    2013-07-01

    Ecological risk assessments (ERAs) are not used as well as they could be in risk management. Part of the problem is that they often lack ecological relevance; that is, they fail to grasp necessary ecological complexities. Adding realism and complexity can be difficult and costly. We argue that predictive systems models (PSMs) can provide a way of capturing complexity and ecological relevance cost-effectively. However, addressing complexity and ecological relevance is only part of the problem. Ecological risk assessments often fail to meet the needs of risk managers by not providing assessments that relate to protection goals and by expressing risk in ratios that cannot be weighed against the costs of interventions. Once more, PSMs can be designed to provide outputs in terms of value-relevant effects that are modulated against exposure and that can provide a better basis for decision making than arbitrary ratios or threshold values. Recent developments in the modeling and its potential for implementation by risk assessors and risk managers are beginning to demonstrate how PSMs can be practically applied in risk assessment and the advantages that doing so could have. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

  14. Importance of ocean circulation in ecological modeling: An example from the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skogen, Morten D.; Moll, Andreas

    2005-09-01

    There is an increasing number of ecological models for the North Sea around. Skogen and Moll (2000) [Skogen, M.D., Moll, A. 2000. Interannual variability of the North Sea primary production: comparison from two model studies. Continental Shelf Research 20 (2), 129-151] compared the interannual variability of the North Sea primary production using two state-of-the-art ecological models, NORWECOM and ECOHAM1. Their conclusion was that the two models agreed on an annual mean primary production, its variability and the timing and size of the peak production. On the other hand, there was a low (even negative dependent of area) correlation in the production in different years between the two models. In the present work, these conclusions are brought further. To try to better understand the observed differences between the two models, the two ecological models are run in an identical physical setting. With such a set-up also the interannual variability between the two models is in agreement, and it is concluded that the single most important factor for a reliable modeling of phytoplankton and nutrient distributions and transports within the North Sea is a proper physical model.

  15. [A process of aquatic ecological function regionalization: The dual tree framework and conceptual model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Shu Hai; Wu, Bo

    2017-12-01

    Aquatic ecological regionalization and aquatic ecological function regionalization are the basis of water environmental management of a river basin and rational utilization of an aquatic ecosystem, and have been studied in China for more than ten years. Regarding the common problems in this field, the relationship between aquatic ecological regionalization and aquatic ecological function regionalization was discussed in this study by systematic analysis of the aquatic ecological zoning and the types of aquatic ecological function. Based on the dual tree structure, we put forward the RFCH process and the diamond conceptual model. Taking Liaohe River basin as an example and referring to the results of existing regionalization studies, we classified the aquatic ecological function regions based on three-class aquatic ecological regionalization. This study provided a process framework for aquatic ecological function regionalization of a river basin.

  16. An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lade, Steven J; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

    2015-09-01

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

  17. HexSim: a modeling environment for ecology and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    HexSim is a powerful and flexible new spatially-explicit, individual based modeling environment intended for use in ecology, conservation, genetics, epidemiology, toxicology, and other disciplines. We describe HexSim, illustrate past applications that contributed to our >10 year ...

  18. Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection methods for random forest modeling in ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological datasets there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, e...

  19. Developing Ecological Models on Carbon and Nitrogen in Secondary Facultative Ponds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aponte-Reyes Alexander

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Ecological models formulated for TOC, CO2, NH4+, NO3- and NTK, based in literature reviewed and field work were obtained monitoring three facultative secondary stabilization ponds, FSSP, pilots: conventional pond, CP, baffled pond, BP, and baffled-meshed pond, BMP. Models were sensitive to flow inlet, solar radiation, pH and oxygen content; the sensitive parameters in Carbon Model were KCOT Ba, umax Ba, umax Al, K1OX, VAl, R1DCH4, YBh. The sensitive parameters in the Nitrogen model were KCOT Ba, umax Ba, umax Al, VAl, KOPH, KOPA, r4An. The test t–paired showed a good simulating of Carbon model refers to TOC in FSSP; on the other side, the Nitrogen model showed a good simulating of NH4+. Different topological models modify ecosystem ecology forcing different transformation pathways of Nitrogen; equal transformations of the Carbon BMP topology could be achieved using lower volumes, however, a calibration for a new model would be required. Carbon and Nitrogen models developed could be coupled to hydrodynamics models for better modeling of FSSP.

  20. Ecology of the North Sea: Problems, successes, failures, future needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinne, O.

    1995-03-01

    After defining ‘ecology’, outlining the basic categories of ecological research and listing examples of modern ecological investigations, this introductory paper focusses on basic considerations; it is, in essence, a programmatic contribution. Research details on the ecology of the North Sea are the subject of the following papers. The problems of ecological North Sea research are formidable. Hydrological and biological fluctuations and variabilities are pronounced. Exchange patterns with the Atlantic are complex, and the inputs of rivers and rain defy exact measurement and prediction. Season, weather, climate—and as yet insufficiently known and controlled human-caused impacts—further complicate the situation. All this results in an unusually high degree of uncertainty. New questions and problems arise before the old ones can be answered or solved. Nevertheless, ecological North Sea research has achieved many successes. The North Sea is the most intensively investigated sea area on our planet. Generations of zoologists, botanists and hydrographers — and more recently microbiologists, meteorologists, climatologists, chemists, pathologists and toxicologists — have produced an impressive body of knowledge. Slowly we are beginning to understand the forces that govern energy budgets and balances, material fluxes, and the factors that control and direct ecosystem dynamics. Essential driving forces of ecosystem dynamics result from microbial, especially bacterial, activities. Ecological modelling has paved the way for new theories and insights, and holds promise for progress towards a predictive ecology. Failures and shortcomings include insufficient long-term research, inadequately designed experiments, and misconceptions in environmental protection. Net changes in ecological processes of an heterogeneous and intensely varying environment such as the North Sea can only be comprehended adequately against the background of sustained measurements over decades

  1. Strategies for fitting nonlinear ecological models in R, AD Model Builder, and BUGS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bolker, B.M.; Gardner, B.; Maunder, M.

    2013-01-01

    Ecologists often use nonlinear fitting techniques to estimate the parameters of complex ecological models, with attendant frustration. This paper compares three open-source model fitting tools and discusses general strategies for defining and fitting models. R is convenient and (relatively) easy...... to learn, AD Model Builder is fast and robust but comes with a steep learning curve, while BUGS provides the greatest flexibility at the price of speed. Our model-fitting suggestions range from general cultural advice (where possible, use the tools and models that are most common in your subfield...

  2. Sensitivity analysis of Repast computational ecology models with R/Repast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prestes García, Antonio; Rodríguez-Patón, Alfonso

    2016-12-01

    Computational ecology is an emerging interdisciplinary discipline founded mainly on modeling and simulation methods for studying ecological systems. Among the existing modeling formalisms, the individual-based modeling is particularly well suited for capturing the complex temporal and spatial dynamics as well as the nonlinearities arising in ecosystems, communities, or populations due to individual variability. In addition, being a bottom-up approach, it is useful for providing new insights on the local mechanisms which are generating some observed global dynamics. Of course, no conclusions about model results could be taken seriously if they are based on a single model execution and they are not analyzed carefully. Therefore, a sound methodology should always be used for underpinning the interpretation of model results. The sensitivity analysis is a methodology for quantitatively assessing the effect of input uncertainty in the simulation output which should be incorporated compulsorily to every work based on in-silico experimental setup. In this article, we present R/Repast a GNU R package for running and analyzing Repast Simphony models accompanied by two worked examples on how to perform global sensitivity analysis and how to interpret the results.

  3. Pattern-oriented modelling: a 'multi-scope' for predictive systems ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Volker; Railsback, Steven F

    2012-01-19

    Modern ecology recognizes that modelling systems across scales and at multiple levels-especially to link population and ecosystem dynamics to individual adaptive behaviour-is essential for making the science predictive. 'Pattern-oriented modelling' (POM) is a strategy for doing just this. POM is the multi-criteria design, selection and calibration of models of complex systems. POM starts with identifying a set of patterns observed at multiple scales and levels that characterize a system with respect to the particular problem being modelled; a model from which the patterns emerge should contain the right mechanisms to address the problem. These patterns are then used to (i) determine what scales, entities, variables and processes the model needs, (ii) test and select submodels to represent key low-level processes such as adaptive behaviour, and (iii) find useful parameter values during calibration. Patterns are already often used in these ways, but a mini-review of applications of POM confirms that making the selection and use of patterns more explicit and rigorous can facilitate the development of models with the right level of complexity to understand ecological systems and predict their response to novel conditions.

  4. 78 FR 62472 - Energy Conservation Program: Alternative Efficiency Determination Methods, Basic Model Definition...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-22

    ... transformers, electric motors, and small electric motors to use AEDMs to rate their non-tested combinations... electric storage water heaters [cir] Commercial gas-fired and oil-fired storage water heaters [cir.... Electric Water Heaters 2 Basic Models. Heat Pump Water Heaters 2 Basic Models. Unfired Hot Water Storage...

  5. Spatio-Temporal Simulation and Analysis of Regional Ecological Security Based on Lstm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, C.; Qi, L.; Heming, L.; Karimian, H.; Yuqin, M.

    2017-10-01

    Region is a complicated system, where human, nature and society interact and influence. Quantitative modeling and simulation of ecology in the region are the key to realize the strategy of regional sustainable development. Traditional machine learning methods have made some achievements in the modeling of regional ecosystems, but it is difficult to determine the learning characteristics and to realize spatio-temporal simulation. Deep learning does not need prior identification of training characteristics, have excellent feature learning ability, can improve the accuracy of model prediction, so the use of deep learning model has a significant advantage. Therefore, we use net primary productivity (NPP), atmospheric optical depth (AOD), moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), landcover and population data, and use LSTM to do spatio-temporal simulation. We conduct spatial analysis and driving force analysis. The conclusions are as follows: the ecological deficit of northwestern Henan and urban communities such as Zhengzhou is higher. The reason of former lies in the weak land productivity of the Loess Plateau, the irrational crop cultivation mode. The latter lies in the high consumption of resources in the large urban agglomeration; The positive trend of Henan ecological development from 2013 is mainly due to the effective environmental protection policy in the 12th five-year plan; The main driver of the sustained ecological deficit growth of Henan in 2004-2013 is high-speed urbanization, increasing population and goods consumption. This article provides relevant basic scientific support and reference for the regional ecological scientific management and construction.

  6. SPATIO-TEMPORAL SIMULATION AND ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL ECOLOGICAL SECURITY BASED ON LSTM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Gong

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Region is a complicated system, where human, nature and society interact and influence. Quantitative modeling and simulation of ecology in the region are the key to realize the strategy of regional sustainable development. Traditional machine learning methods have made some achievements in the modeling of regional ecosystems, but it is difficult to determine the learning characteristics and to realize spatio-temporal simulation. Deep learning does not need prior identification of training characteristics, have excellent feature learning ability, can improve the accuracy of model prediction, so the use of deep learning model has a significant advantage. Therefore, we use net primary productivity (NPP, atmospheric optical depth (AOD, moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, landcover and population data, and use LSTM to do spatio-temporal simulation. We conduct spatial analysis and driving force analysis. The conclusions are as follows: the ecological deficit of northwestern Henan and urban communities such as Zhengzhou is higher. The reason of former lies in the weak land productivity of the Loess Plateau, the irrational crop cultivation mode. The latter lies in the high consumption of resources in the large urban agglomeration; The positive trend of Henan ecological development from 2013 is mainly due to the effective environmental protection policy in the 12th five-year plan; The main driver of the sustained ecological deficit growth of Henan in 2004-2013 is high-speed urbanization, increasing population and goods consumption. This article provides relevant basic scientific support and reference for the regional ecological scientific management and construction.

  7. A Distributed Model of Oilseed Biorefining, via Integrated Industrial Ecology Exchanges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrell, Jeremy C.

    As the demand for direct petroleum substitutes increases, biorefineries are poised to become centers for conversion of biomass into fuels, energy, and biomaterials. A distributed model offers reduced transportation, tailored process technology to available feedstock, and increased local resilience. Oilseeds are capable of producing a wide variety of useful products additive to food, feed, and fuel needs. Biodiesel manufacturing technology lends itself to smaller-scale distributed facilities able to process diverse feedstocks and meet demand of critical diesel fuel for basic municipal services, safety, sanitation, infrastructure repair, and food production. Integrating biodiesel refining facilities as tenants of eco-industrial parks presents a novel approach for synergistic energy and material exchanges whereby environmental and economic metrics can be significantly improved upon compared to stand alone models. This research is based on the Catawba County NC EcoComplex and the oilseed crushing and biodiesel processing facilities (capacity-433 tons biodiesel per year) located within. Technical and environmental analyses of the biorefinery components as well as agronomic and economic models are presented. The life cycle assessment for the two optimal biodiesel feedstocks, soybeans and used cooking oil, resulted in fossil energy ratios of 7.19 and 12.1 with carbon intensity values of 12.51 gCO2-eq/MJ and 7.93 gCO2-eq/MJ, respectively within the industrial ecology system. Economic modeling resulted in a biodiesel conversion cost of 1.43 per liter of fuel produced with used cooking oil, requiring a subsidy of 0.58 per liter to reach the break-even point. As subsidies continue significant fluctuation, metrics other than operating costs are required to justify small-scale biofuel projects.

  8. Application of an Ecological Model for the Cibolo Creek Watershed

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Price, David

    2004-01-01

    The U.S. Army Engineer District, Fort Worth (CESWF) is involved in demon- strating the utility of an ecological model in the performance and interpretation of a comprehensive General Investigations (GI...

  9. Bayesian near-boundary analysis in basic macroeconomic time series models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.D. de Pooter (Michiel); F. Ravazzolo (Francesco); R. Segers (René); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractSeveral lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic

  10. Basic Principles of Wastewater Treatment

    OpenAIRE

    Von Sperling, Marcos

    2007-01-01

    "Basic Principles of Wastewater Treatment is the second volume in the series Biological Wastewater Treatment, and focusses on the unit operations and processes associated with biological wastewater treatment. The major topics covered are: microbiology and ecology of wastewater treatment reaction kinetics and reactor hydraulics conversion of organic and inorganic matter sedimentation aeration The theory presented in this volume forms the basis upon which the other books...

  11. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) as a model system in community, landscape and ecosystem ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowker, Matthew A.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Eldridge, David; Belnap, Jayne; Castillo-Monroy, Andrea; Escolar, Cristina; Soliveres, Santiago

    2014-01-01

    Model systems have had a profound influence on the development of ecological theory and general principles. Compared to alternatives, the most effective models share some combination of the following characteristics: simpler, smaller, faster, general, idiosyncratic or manipulable. We argue that biological soil crusts (biocrusts) have unique combinations of these features that should be more widely exploited in community, landscape and ecosystem ecology. In community ecology, biocrusts are elucidating the importance of biodiversity and spatial pattern for maintaining ecosystem multifunctionality due to their manipulability in experiments. Due to idiosyncrasies in their modes of facilitation and competition, biocrusts have led to new models on the interplay between environmental stress and biotic interactions and on the maintenance of biodiversity by competitive processes. Biocrusts are perhaps one of the best examples of micro-landscapes—real landscapes that are small in size. Although they exhibit varying patch heterogeneity, aggregation, connectivity and fragmentation, like macro-landscapes, they are also compatible with well-replicated experiments (unlike macro-landscapes). In ecosystem ecology, a number of studies are imposing small-scale, low cost manipulations of global change or state factors in biocrust micro-landscapes. The versatility of biocrusts to inform such disparate lines of inquiry suggests that they are an especially useful model system that can enable researchers to see ecological principles more clearly and quickly.

  12. Statistical ecology comes of age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gimenez, Olivier; Buckland, Stephen T.; Morgan, Byron J. T.; Bez, Nicolas; Bertrand, Sophie; Choquet, Rémi; Dray, Stéphane; Etienne, Marie-Pierre; Fewster, Rachel; Gosselin, Frédéric; Mérigot, Bastien; Monestiez, Pascal; Morales, Juan M.; Mortier, Frédéric; Munoz, François; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pavoine, Sandrine; Pradel, Roger; Schurr, Frank M.; Thomas, Len; Thuiller, Wilfried; Trenkel, Verena; de Valpine, Perry; Rexstad, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1–4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data. PMID:25540151

  13. Statistical ecology comes of age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gimenez, Olivier; Buckland, Stephen T; Morgan, Byron J T; Bez, Nicolas; Bertrand, Sophie; Choquet, Rémi; Dray, Stéphane; Etienne, Marie-Pierre; Fewster, Rachel; Gosselin, Frédéric; Mérigot, Bastien; Monestiez, Pascal; Morales, Juan M; Mortier, Frédéric; Munoz, François; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pavoine, Sandrine; Pradel, Roger; Schurr, Frank M; Thomas, Len; Thuiller, Wilfried; Trenkel, Verena; de Valpine, Perry; Rexstad, Eric

    2014-12-01

    The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1-4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.

  14. [Uncertainty analysis of ecological risk assessment caused by heavy-metals deposition from MSWI emission].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Zhi-Heng; Sun, Jia-Ren; Wu, Dui; Fan, Shao-Jia; Ren, Ming-Zhong; Lü, Jia-Yang

    2014-06-01

    The CALPUFF model was applied to simulate the ground-level atmospheric concentrations of Pb and Cd from municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) plants, and the soil concentration model was used to estimate soil concentration increments after atmospheric deposition based on Monte Carlo simulation, then ecological risk assessment was conducted by the potential ecological risk index method. The results showed that the largest atmospheric concentrations of Pb and Cd were 5.59 x 109-3) microg x m(-3) and 5.57 x 10(-4) microg x m(-3), respectively, while the maxima of soil concentration incremental medium of Pb and Cd were 2.26 mg x kg(-1) and 0.21 mg x kg(-1), respectively; High risk areas were located next to the incinerators, Cd contributed the most to the ecological risk, and Pb was basically free of pollution risk; Higher ecological hazard level was predicted at the most polluted point in urban areas with a 55.30% probability, while in rural areas, the most polluted point was assessed to moderate ecological hazard level with a 72.92% probability. In addition, sensitivity analysis of calculation parameters in the soil concentration model was conducted, which showed the simulated results of urban and rural area were most sensitive to soil mix depth and dry deposition rate, respectively.

  15. [Regional ecological construction and mission of landscape ecology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Duning; Xie, Fuju; Wei, Jianbing

    2004-10-01

    The eco-construction on regional and landscape scale is the one which can be used to specific landscape and intercrossing ecosystem in specific region including performing scientific administration of ecosystem and optimizing environmental function. Recently, the government has taken a series of significant projects into action, such as national forest protection item, partly forest restoration, and adjustment of water, etc. Enforcing regional eco-construction and maintaining the ecology security of the nation have become the strategic requisition. In various regions, different eco-construction should be applied, for example, performing ecological safeguard measure in ecological sensitive zone, accommodating the ecological load in ecological fragile zone, etc., which can control the activities of human being, so that, sustainable development can be reached. Facing opportunity and challenge in the development of landscape ecology, we have some key topics: landscape pattern of ecological security, land use and ecological process, landscape changes under human activity stress, quantitative evaluation of the influence on human being activities, evaluation of zonal ecological security and advance warning of ecological risk, and planning and optimizing of model in landscape eco-construction.

  16. Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Hengguo; Zhao Min; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili

    2009-01-01

    Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model

  17. Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu Hengguo [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China); Zhao Min [School of Life and Environmental Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325027 (China)], E-mail: zmcn@tom.com; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China)

    2009-01-15

    Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model.

  18. Modeling the basic superconductor thermodynamical-statistical characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palenskis, V.; Maknys, K.

    1999-01-01

    In accordance with the Landau second-order phase transition and other thermodynamical-statistical relations for superconductors, and using the energy gap as an order parameter in the electron free energy presentation, the fundamental characteristics of electrons, such as the free energy, the total energy, the energy gap, the entropy, and the heat capacity dependences on temperature were obtained. The obtained modeling results, in principle, well reflect the basic low- and high-temperature superconductor characteristics

  19. Benefits of using a Social-Ecological Systems Approach to Conceptualize and Model Wetlands Restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Using a social-ecological systems (SES) perspective to examine wetland restoration helps decision-makers recognize interdependencies and relations between ecological and social components of coupled systems. Conceptual models are an invaluable tool to capture, visualize, and orga...

  20. Deep ecology: A movement and a new approach to solving environmental problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mišković Milan M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the industrial society, nature is conceived as a resource for unlimited exploitation, and the entropic effects of its pollution and depletion can be effectively controlled and resolved. Non-human entities are viewed as raw materials for technical manipulation and the increase in the standard of living for consumers in mass societies. Contrary to such utilitarian pragmatism, some new views on the relationship of man, society and nature are appearing, as well as different concepts of environmentally balanced development. According to these views, the transition to ecological society and ecological culture will not be possible without replacing the current anthropocentric ethics with the ecocentric or environmental ethics. Deep ecology arises in the spectrum of environmental ethics theories. It is considered as a movement and a new approach to solving environmental problems. Deep ecology is a type of ecosophy formed by Arne Nes, and it focuses on wisdom and ecological balance. It is based on ecological science, but it asks deeper questions about the causes of the ecological crisis and corresponds to the general discourse on sustainable development. The article discusses the platform of deep ecology movement and gives the basic principles of deep ecology. It gives explanations of the two basic norms of deep ecology (self-understanding and biospheric egalitarianism and criticism of these concepts.

  1. Basic Research Tools for Earthworm Ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin R. Butt

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Earthworms are responsible for soil development, recycling organic matter and form a vital component within many food webs. For these and other reasons earthworms are worthy of investigation. Many technologically-enhanced approaches have been used within earthworm-focused research. These have their place, may be a development of existing practices or bring techniques from other fields. Nevertheless, let us not overlook the fact that much can still be learned through utilisation of more basic approaches which have been used for some time. New does not always equate to better. Information on community composition within an area and specific population densities can be learned using simple collection techniques, and burrowing behaviour can be determined from pits, resin-insertion or simple mesocosms. Life history studies can be achieved through maintenance of relatively simple cultures. Behavioural observations can be undertaken by direct observation or with low cost webcam usage. Applied aspects of earthworm research can also be achieved through use of simple techniques to enhance population development and even population dynamics can be directly addressed with use of relatively inexpensive, effective marking techniques. This paper seeks to demonstrate that good quality research in this sphere can result from appropriate application of relatively simple research tools.

  2. Basic Research Tools for Earthworm Ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Butt, K.R.; Grigoropoulou, N.

    2010-01-01

    Earthworms are responsible for soil development, recycling organic matter and form a vital component within many food webs. For these and other reasons earthworms are worthy of investigation. Many technologically-enhanced approaches have been used within earthworm-focused research. These have their place, may be a development of existing practices or bring techniques from other fields. Nevertheless, let us not overlook the fact that much can still be learned through utilisation of more basic approaches which have been used for some time. New does not always equate to better. Information on community composition within an area and specific population densities can be learned using simple collection techniques, and burrowing behaviour can be determined from pits, resin-insertion or simple mesocosms. Life history studies can be achieved through maintenance of relatively simple cultures. Behavioural observations can be undertaken by direct observation or with low cost we became usage. Applied aspects of earthworm research can also be achieved through use of simple techniques to enhance population development and even population dynamics can be directly addressed with use of relatively inexpensive, effective marking techniques. This paper seeks to demonstrate that good quality research in this sphere can result from appropriate application of relatively simple research tools.

  3. Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenger, Seth J.; Luce, Charles H.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Neville, Helen M.

    2010-09-01

    Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe and forecast hydrologic changes but has been calibrated and applied mainly to large rivers. An important question is how well VIC runoff simulations serve to answer questions about hydrologic changes in smaller streams, which are important habitat for many fish species. To answer this question, we aggregated gridded VIC outputs within the drainage basins of 55 streamflow gages in the Pacific Northwest United States and compared modeled hydrographs and summary metrics to observations. For most streams, several ecologically relevant aspects of the hydrologic regime were accurately modeled, including center of flow timing, mean annual and summer flows and frequency of winter floods. Frequencies of high and low flows in the summer were not well predicted, however. Predictions were worse for sites with strong groundwater influence, and some sites showed errors that may result from limitations in the forcing climate data. Higher resolution (1/16th degree) modeling provided small improvements over lower resolution (1/8th degree). Despite some limitations, the VIC model appears capable of representing several ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics in streams, making it a useful tool for understanding the effects of hydrology in delimiting species distributions and predicting the potential effects of climate shifts on aquatic organisms.

  4. General equilibrium basic needs policy model, (updating part).

    OpenAIRE

    Kouwenaar A

    1985-01-01

    ILO pub-WEP pub-PREALC pub. Working paper, econometric model for the assessment of structural change affecting development planning for basic needs satisfaction in Ecuador - considers population growth, family size (households), labour force participation, labour supply, wages, income distribution, profit rates, capital ownership, etc.; examines nutrition, education and health as factors influencing productivity. Diagram, graph, references, statistical tables.

  5. Increasing connectivity between metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Paige E; Muths, Erin; Hossack, Blake R; Sigafus, Brent H; Chandler, Richard B

    2018-05-01

    Metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology aim to understand how spatial structure influences ecological processes, yet these disciplines address the problem using fundamentally different modeling approaches. Metapopulation models describe how the spatial distribution of patches affects colonization and extinction, but often do not account for the heterogeneity in the landscape between patches. Models in landscape ecology use detailed descriptions of landscape structure, but often without considering colonization and extinction dynamics. We present a novel spatially explicit modeling framework for narrowing the divide between these disciplines to advance understanding of the effects of landscape structure on metapopulation dynamics. Unlike previous efforts, this framework allows for statistical inference on landscape resistance to colonization using empirical data. We demonstrate the approach using 11 yr of data on a threatened amphibian in a desert ecosystem. Occupancy data for Lithobates chiricahuensis (Chiricahua leopard frog) were collected on the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR), Arizona, USA from 2007 to 2017 following a reintroduction in 2003. Results indicated that colonization dynamics were influenced by both patch characteristics and landscape structure. Landscape resistance increased with increasing elevation and distance to the nearest streambed. Colonization rate was also influenced by patch quality, with semi-permanent and permanent ponds contributing substantially more to the colonization of neighboring ponds relative to intermittent ponds. Ponds that only hold water intermittently also had the highest extinction rate. Our modeling framework can be widely applied to understand metapopulation dynamics in complex landscapes, particularly in systems in which the environment between habitat patches influences the colonization process. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  6. Spatial agent-based models for socio-ecological systems: challenges and prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Filatova, T.; Verburg, P.H.; Parker, D.C.; Stannard, S.R.

    2013-01-01

    Departing from the comprehensive reviews carried out in the field, we identify the key challenges that agent-based methodology faces when modeling coupled socio-ecological systems. Focusing primarily on the papers presented in this thematic issue, we review progress in spatial agent-based models

  7. Using ecological production functions to link ecological ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological production functions (EPFs) link ecosystems, stressors, and management actions to ecosystem services (ES) production. Although EPFs are acknowledged as being essential to improve environmental management, their use in ecological risk assessment has received relatively little attention. Ecological production functions may be defined as usable expressions (i.e., models) of the processes by which ecosystems produce ES, often including external influences on those processes. We identify key attributes of EPFs and discuss both actual and idealized examples of their use to inform decision making. Whenever possible, EPFs should estimate final, rather than intermediate, ES. Although various types of EPFs have been developed, we suggest that EPFs are more useful for decision making if they quantify ES outcomes, respond to ecosystem condition, respond to stressor levels or management scenarios, reflect ecological complexity, rely on data with broad coverage, have performed well previously, are practical to use, and are open and transparent. In an example using pesticides, we illustrate how EPFs with these attributes could enable the inclusion of ES in ecological risk assessment. The biggest challenges to ES inclusion are limited data sets that are easily adapted for use in modeling EPFs and generally poor understanding of linkages among ecological components and the processes that ultimately deliver the ES. We conclude by advocating for the incorporation into E

  8. Education for Today's Ecological Crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, S. Fred

    1970-01-01

    Describes the university's role in providing education for the ecological crisis, and divides environmental sciences into two major areas: basic and applied. Proposes a curriculum leading to a B.S. degree in physics consisting of a two-year honor physics program followed by specialization in environmental and planetary sciences (EPS). (PR)

  9. Model Configuration and Innovative Design of College Students’ Ecological Civilization Construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chengwen, Yang

    2018-02-01

    This study is based on Marxist eco-civilization thought, combining with Eco management theory, puts forward solutions for college students’ ecological civilization construction. The paper based on the perspective of ecological management theory to analyze the main elements of eco-civilization construction of college students, mainly including five categories. In view of above-mentioned analyze, constructed the model of college students’ eco-civilization which is based on the theory of eco-management, and put forward on concrete methods to improve it.

  10. An ecological assessment of pasturelands in the Balkhash area of Kazakhstan with remote sensing and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lebed, L; Qi, J; Heilman, P

    2012-01-01

    The 187 million hectares of pasturelands in Kazakhstan play a key role in the nation’s economy, as livestock production accounted for 54% of total agricultural production in 2010. However, more than half of these lands have been degraded as a result of unregulated grazing practices. Therefore, effective long term ecological monitoring of pasturelands in Kazakhstan is imperative to ensure sustainable pastureland management. As a case study in this research, we demonstrated how the ecological conditions could be assessed with remote sensing technologies and pastureland models. The example focuses on the southern Balkhash area with study sites on a foothill plain with Artemisia-ephemeral plants and a sandy plain with psammophilic vegetation in the Turan Desert. The assessment was based on remotely sensed imagery and meteorological data, a geobotanical archive and periodic ground sampling. The Pasture agrometeorological model was used to calculate biological, ecological and economic indicators to assess pastureland condition. The results showed that field surveys, meteorological observations, remote sensing and ecological models, such as Pasture, could be combined to effectively assess the ecological conditions of pasturelands and provide information about forage production that is critically important for balancing grazing and ecological conservation. (letter)

  11. The special effects of hypnosis and hypnotherapy: A contribution to an ecological model of therapeutic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mende, Matthias

    2006-04-01

    There is ample evidence that hypnosis enhances the effectiveness of psychotherapy and produces some astounding effects of its own. In this paper, the effective components and principles of hypnosis and hypnotherapy are analyzed. The "special" hypnotic and hypnotherapeutic effects are linked to the fact that the ecological requirements of therapeutic change are taken into account implicitly and/or explicitly when working with hypnotic trances in a therapeutic setting. The hypnotic situation is described--theoretically and in case examples--as a therapeutic modality that gratifies and aligns the basic emotional needs to feel autonomous, related, competent, and oriented. It is shown how the hypnotic relationship can help promote a sound ecological balance between these needs--a balance that is deemed to be a necessary prerequisite for salutogenesis. Practical implications for planning hypnotherapeutic interventions are discussed.

  12. Savannah River Ecology Laboratory. Annual technical progress report of ecological research, period ending July 31, 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The Savannah River Ecology Laboratory (SREL) is a research unit of the University of Georgia (UGA) that is managed in conjunction with the University's Institute of Ecology. The laboratory's overall mission is to acquire and communicate knowledge of ecological processes and principles. SREL conducts basic and applied ecological research, as well as education and outreach programs, under an M ampersand O contract with the US Department of Energy at the Savannah River Site. Significant accomplishments were made during the year ending July 31, 1994 in the areas of research, education and service. Reviewed in this document are research projects in the following areas: Environmental Operations Support (impacted wetlands, streams, trace organics, radioecology, database synthesis, wild life studies, zooplankton, safety and quality assurance); wood stork foraging and breeding ecology; defence waste processing facility; environmental risk assessment (endangered species, fish, ash basin studies); ecosystem alteration by chemical pollutants; wetlands systems; biodiversity on the SRS; Environmental toxicology; environmental outreach and education; Par Pond drawdown studies in wildlife and fish and metals; theoretical ecology; DOE-SR National Environmental Research Park; wildlife studies. Summaries of educational programs and publications are also give

  13. Savannah River Ecology Laboratory. Annual technical progress report of ecological research, period ending July 31, 1994

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-07-31

    The Savannah River Ecology Laboratory (SREL) is a research unit of the University of Georgia (UGA) that is managed in conjunction with the University`s Institute of Ecology. The laboratory`s overall mission is to acquire and communicate knowledge of ecological processes and principles. SREL conducts basic and applied ecological research, as well as education and outreach programs, under an M&O contract with the US Department of Energy at the Savannah River Site. Significant accomplishments were made during the year ending July 31, 1994 in the areas of research, education and service. Reviewed in this document are research projects in the following areas: Environmental Operations Support (impacted wetlands, streams, trace organics, radioecology, database synthesis, wild life studies, zooplankton, safety and quality assurance); wood stork foraging and breeding ecology; defence waste processing facility; environmental risk assessment (endangered species, fish, ash basin studies); ecosystem alteration by chemical pollutants; wetlands systems; biodiversity on the SRS; Environmental toxicology; environmental outreach and education; Par Pond drawdown studies in wildlife and fish and metals; theoretical ecology; DOE-SR National Environmental Research Park; wildlife studies. Summaries of educational programs and publications are also give.

  14. Integrated Ecological-Economic Modeling of Regions with the use of GIS Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.N. Bulatova

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper shows the process of modeling the integrated map “Scheme of the ecological and economic regionalization of the territory of the Russian Federation on the basis of the mineral and raw materials base of natural adsorbents” using GIS technologies. The map is based on three main groups of indicators: natural, economic and environmental. The ecological content of the map is characterized by indicators that are potential or actual sources of pollutant release into the environment (nuclear power plants, nuclear reactors, radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, nuclear test sites, industrial enterprises, railways, operating and under construction oil pipelines, hydrocarbon fields, etc.. The economic component of the map is the reserves estimated by the indicators of study and development, the relationship to the subsoil fund and forecast resources. The natural group of indicators is represented by the mineral and raw material base of natural adsorbents (fields and objects of forecast resources that can be used to prevent harmful emissions and for the ecological and economic rehabilitation of contaminated areas. Based on the analysis of cartographic data, the ecological and economic areas of the territorial distribution of man-caused environmental impacts and the presence of adsorption raw materials are identified. As an example, a description is given of the ecological and economic model of the regionalization of the Privolzhsky Federal District using the GIS “Mineral resource base of natural adsorbents of Russia” developed at the Federal State Unitary Enterprise TsNIIgeolnerud.

  15. Integrating Future Land Use Scenarios to Evaluate the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Landscape Ecological Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Lu

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Urban ecological security is the basic principle of national ecological security. However, analyses of the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological security remain limited, especially those that consider different scenarios of urban development. In this study, an integrated method is proposed that combines the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE-S model with the Pressure–State–Response (P-S-R framework to assess landscape ecological security (LES in Huangshan City, China under two scenarios. Our results suggest the following conclusions: (1 the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological security are closely related to the urbanization process; (2 although the average values of landscape ecological security are similar under different scenarios, the areas of relatively high security levels vary considerably; and (3 spatial heterogeneity in ecological security exists between different districts and counties, and the city center and its vicinity may face relatively serious declines in ecological security in the future. Overall, the proposed method not only illustrates the spatio-temporal dynamics of landscape ecological security under different scenarios but also reveals the anthropogenic effects on ecosystems by differentiating between causes, effects, and human responses at the landscape scale. This information is of great significance to decision-makers for future urban planning and management.

  16. Exergy method technical and ecological applications

    CERN Document Server

    Szargut, J

    2005-01-01

    The exergy method makes it possible to detect and quantify the possibilities of improving thermal and chemical processes and systems. The introduction of the concept ""thermo-ecological cost"" (cumulative consumption of non-renewable natural exergy resources) generated large application possibilities of exergy in ecology. This book contains a short presentation on the basic principles of exergy analysis and discusses new achievements in the field over the last 15 years. One of the most important issues considered by the distinguished author is the economy of non-renewable natural exergy.

  17. 10 CFR 431.385 - Cessation of distribution of a basic model of an electric motor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... basic model of an electric motor. (a) In the event that a model of an electric motor is determined non... a model of an electric motor to be in noncompliance, then the manufacturer or private labeler shall... 10 Energy 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Cessation of distribution of a basic model of an electric...

  18. Introducing MERGANSER: A Flexible Framework for Ecological Niche Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klawonn, M.; Dow, E. M.

    2015-12-01

    Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) is a collection of techniques to find a "fundamental niche", the range of environmental conditions suitable for a species' survival in the absence of inter-species interactions, given a set of environmental parameters. Traditional approaches to ENM face a number of obstacles including limited data accessibility, data management problems, computational costs, interface usability, and model validation. The MERGANSER system, which stands for Modeling Ecological Residency Given A Normalized Set of Environmental Records, addresses these issues through powerful data persistence and flexible data access, coupled with a clear presentation of results and fine-tuned control over model parameters. MERGANSER leverages data measuring 72 weather related phenomena, land cover, soil type, population, species occurrence, general species information, and elevation, totaling over 1.5 TB of data. To the best of the authors' knowledge, MERGANSER uses higher-resolution spatial data sets than previously published models. Since MERGANSER stores data in an instance of Apache SOLR, layers generated in support of niche models are accessible to users via simplified Apache Lucene queries. This is made even simpler via an HTTP front end that generates Lucene queries automatically. Specifically, a user need only enter the name of a place and a species to run a model. Using this approach to synthesizing model layers, the MERGANSER system has successfully reproduced previously published niche model results with a simplified user experience. Input layers for the model are generated dynamically using OpenStreetMap and SOLR's spatial search functionality. Models are then run using either user-specified or automatically determined parameters after normalizing them into a common grid. Finally, results are visualized in the web interface, which allows for quick validation. Model results and all surrounding metadata are also accessible to the user for further study.

  19. Informative-Consulting Model for Ecological Estimation of Influence of NPP on Surrounding Environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vlasenko, N.I.; Vlasova, E.V.; Korotenko, M.N.; Pyshnaya, D.V.

    2006-01-01

    In the NAEK 'Energoatom' the development of informative-consulting model (ICM) for ecological estimation of influence of NPP on surrounding an environment has began. In ICM the use of modern program complexes is foreseen that will allow to analyses data of the radio ecological monitoring in the real-time mode and promote the validity of administrative decisions

  20. An Integrated Visualization and Basic Molecular Modeling Laboratory for First-Year Undergraduate Medicinal Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Joseph M.

    2014-01-01

    A 3D model visualization and basic molecular modeling laboratory suitable for first-year undergraduates studying introductory medicinal chemistry is presented. The 2 h practical is embedded within a series of lectures on drug design, target-drug interactions, enzymes, receptors, nucleic acids, and basic pharmacokinetics. Serving as a teaching aid…

  1. Explanatory models for ecological response surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jager, H.I.; Overton, W.S.

    1991-01-01

    Understanding the spatial organization of ecological systems is a fundamental part of ecosystem study. While discovering the causal relationships of this organization is an important goal, our purpose of spatial description on a regional scale is best met by use of explanatory variables that are somewhat removed from the mechanistic causal level. Regional level understanding is best obtained from explanatory variables that reflect spatial gradients at the regional scale and from categorical variables that describe the discrete constituents of (statistical) populations, such as lakes. In this paper, we use a regression model to predict lake acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) based on environmental predictor variables over a large region. These predictions are used to produce model-based population estimates. Two key features of our modeling approach are that is honors the spatial context and the design of the sample data. The spatial context of the data are brought into the analysis of model residuals through the interpretation of residual maps and semivariograms. The sampling design is taken into account by including stratification variables from the design in the model. This ensures that the model applies to a real population of lakes (the target population), rather than whatever hypothetical population the sample is a random sample of

  2. Integrated models to support multiobjective ecological restoration decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Hannah; Rumpff, Libby; Yen, Jian D L; Robinson, Doug; Wintle, Brendan A

    2017-12-01

    Many objectives motivate ecological restoration, including improving vegetation condition, increasing the range and abundance of threatened species, and improving species richness and diversity. Although models have been used to examine the outcomes of ecological restoration, few researchers have attempted to develop models to account for multiple, potentially competing objectives. We developed a combined state-and-transition, species-distribution model to predict the effects of restoration actions on vegetation condition and extent, bird diversity, and the distribution of several bird species in southeastern Australian woodlands. The actions reflected several management objectives. We then validated the models against an independent data set and investigated how the best management decision might change when objectives were valued differently. We also used model results to identify effective restoration options for vegetation and bird species under a constrained budget. In the examples we evaluated, no one action (improving vegetation condition and extent, increasing bird diversity, or increasing the probability of occurrence for threatened species) provided the best outcome across all objectives. In agricultural lands, the optimal management actions for promoting the occurrence of the Brown Treecreeper (Climacteris picumnus), an iconic threatened species, resulted in little improvement in the extent of the vegetation and a high probability of decreased vegetation condition. This result highlights that the best management action in any situation depends on how much the different objectives are valued. In our example scenario, no management or weed control were most likely to be the best management options to satisfy multiple restoration objectives. Our approach to exploring trade-offs in management outcomes through integrated modeling and structured decision-support approaches has wide application for situations in which trade-offs exist between competing

  3. Forensic Entomology: Evaluating Uncertainty Associated With Postmortem Interval (PMI) Estimates With Ecological Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faris, A M; Wang, H-H; Tarone, A M; Grant, W E

    2016-05-31

    Estimates of insect age can be informative in death investigations and, when certain assumptions are met, can be useful for estimating the postmortem interval (PMI). Currently, the accuracy and precision of PMI estimates is unknown, as error can arise from sources of variation such as measurement error, environmental variation, or genetic variation. Ecological models are an abstract, mathematical representation of an ecological system that can make predictions about the dynamics of the real system. To quantify the variation associated with the pre-appearance interval (PAI), we developed an ecological model that simulates the colonization of vertebrate remains by Cochliomyia macellaria (Fabricius) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), a primary colonizer in the southern United States. The model is based on a development data set derived from a local population and represents the uncertainty in local temperature variability to address PMI estimates at local sites. After a PMI estimate is calculated for each individual, the model calculates the maximum, minimum, and mean PMI, as well as the range and standard deviation for stadia collected. The model framework presented here is one manner by which errors in PMI estimates can be addressed in court when no empirical data are available for the parameter of interest. We show that PAI is a potential important source of error and that an ecological model is one way to evaluate its impact. Such models can be re-parameterized with any development data set, PAI function, temperature regime, assumption of interest, etc., to estimate PMI and quantify uncertainty that arises from specific prediction systems. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A.; Myin-Germeys, Inez

    2016-01-01

    Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals’ daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions. PMID:26707864

  5. Protein Folding: Search for Basic Physical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Y. Torshin

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available How a unique three-dimensional structure is rapidly formed from the linear sequence of a polypeptide is one of the important questions in contemporary science. Apart from biological context of in vivo protein folding (which has been studied only for a few proteins, the roles of the fundamental physical forces in the in vitro folding remain largely unstudied. Despite a degree of success in using descriptions based on statistical and/or thermodynamic approaches, few of the current models explicitly include more basic physical forces (such as electrostatics and Van Der Waals forces. Moreover, the present-day models rarely take into account that the protein folding is, essentially, a rapid process that produces a highly specific architecture. This review considers several physical models that may provide more direct links between sequence and tertiary structure in terms of the physical forces. In particular, elaboration of such simple models is likely to produce extremely effective computational techniques with value for modern genomics.

  6. Evolving Approaches and Technologies to Enhance the Role of Ecological Modeling in Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric Gustafson; John Nestler; Louis Gross; Keith M. Reynolds; Daniel Yaussy; Thomas P. Maxwell; Virginia H. Dale

    2002-01-01

    Understanding the effects of management activities is difficult for natural resource managers and decision makers because ecological systems are highly complex and their behavior is difficult to predict. Furthermore, the empirical studies necessary to illuminate all management questions quickly become logistically complicated and cost prohibitive. Ecological models...

  7. Modeling socioeconomic and ecologic aspects of land-use change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dale, V.H.; Pedlowski, M.A.; O'Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F.

    1992-01-01

    Land use change is one of the major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Prevalent types of land-use change include replacing forests with agriculture, mines or ranches; forest degradation from collection of firewood; and forest logging. A global effect of wide-scale deforestation is an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which may affect climate. Regional effects include loss of biodiversity and disruption of hydrologic regimes. Local effects include soil erosion, siltation and decreases in soil fertility, loss of extractive reserves, and disruption of indigenous people. Modeling land use change requires combining socioeconomic and ecological factors because socioeconomic forces frequently initiate land-use change and are affected by the subsequent ecological degradation. This paper describes a modeling system that integrates submodels of human colonization and impacts to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land use scenarios. Immigration which follows road building or paving is a major factor in the rapid deforestation of previously inaccessible areas. Roads facilitate colonization, allow access for large machines, and provide transportation routes for mort of raw materials and produce

  8. Place prioritization for biodiversity content using species ecological niche modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Víctor Sánchez-Cordero; Verónica Cirelli; Mariana Munguial; Sahotra Sarkar

    2005-01-01

    Place prioritization for biodiversity representation is essential for conservation planning, particularly in megadiverse countries where high deforestation threatens biodiversity. Given the collecting biases and uneven sampling of biological inventories, there is a need to develop robust models of species’ distributions. By modeling species’ ecological niches using point occurrence data and digitized environmental feature maps, we can predict potential and extant distributions of species in u...

  9. Modeling Forest Succession among Ecological Land Units in Northern Minnesota

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Host

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available Field and modeling studies were used to quantify potential successional pathways among fine-scale ecological classification units within two geomorphic regions of north-central Minnesota. Soil and overstory data were collected on plots stratified across low-relief ground moraines and undulating sand dunes. Each geomorphic feature was sampled across gradients of topography or soil texture. Overstory conditions were sampled using five variable-radius point samples per plot; soil samples were analyzed for carbon and nitrogen content. Climatic, forest composition, and soil data were used to parameterize the sample plots for use with LINKAGES, a forest growth model that simulates changes in composition and soil characteristics over time. Forest composition and soil properties varied within and among geomorphic features. LINKAGES simulations were using "bare ground" and the current overstory as starting conditions. Northern hardwoods or pines dominated the late-successional communities of morainal and dune landforms, respectively. The morainal landforms were dominated by yellow birch and sugar maple; yellow birch reached its maximum abundance in intermediate landscape positions. On the dune sites, pine was most abundant in drier landscape positions, with white spruce increasing in abundance with increasing soil moisture and N content. The differences in measured soil properties and predicted late-successional composition indicate that ecological land units incorporate some of the key variables that govern forest composition and structure. They further show the value of ecological classification and modeling for developing forest management strategies that incorporate the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest ecosystems.

  10. Basic Pilot Code Development for Two-Fluid, Three-Field Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Jae Jun; Bae, S. W.; Lee, Y. J.; Chung, B. D.; Hwang, M.; Ha, K. S.; Kang, D. H.

    2006-03-01

    A basic pilot code for one-dimensional, transient, two-fluid, three-field model has been developed. Using 9 conceptual problems, the basic pilot code has been verified. The results of the verification are summarized below: - It was confirmed that the basic pilot code can simulate various flow conditions (such as single-phase liquid flow, bubbly flow, slug/churn turbulent flow, annular-mist flow, and single-phase vapor flow) and transitions of the flow conditions. A mist flow was not simulated, but it seems that the basic pilot code can simulate mist flow conditions. - The pilot code was programmed so that the source terms of the governing equations and numerical solution schemes can be easily tested. - The mass and energy conservation was confirmed for single-phase liquid and single-phase vapor flows. - It was confirmed that the inlet pressure and velocity boundary conditions work properly. - It was confirmed that, for single- and two-phase flows, the velocity and temperature of non-existing phase are calculated as intended. - During the simulation of a two-phase flow, the calculation reaches a quasisteady state with small-amplitude oscillations. The oscillations seem to be induced by some numerical causes. The research items for the improvement of the basic pilot code are listed in the last section of this report

  11. Basic Pilot Code Development for Two-Fluid, Three-Field Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Jae Jun; Bae, S. W.; Lee, Y. J.; Chung, B. D.; Hwang, M.; Ha, K. S.; Kang, D. H

    2006-03-15

    A basic pilot code for one-dimensional, transient, two-fluid, three-field model has been developed. Using 9 conceptual problems, the basic pilot code has been verified. The results of the verification are summarized below: - It was confirmed that the basic pilot code can simulate various flow conditions (such as single-phase liquid flow, bubbly flow, slug/churn turbulent flow, annular-mist flow, and single-phase vapor flow) and transitions of the flow conditions. A mist flow was not simulated, but it seems that the basic pilot code can simulate mist flow conditions. - The pilot code was programmed so that the source terms of the governing equations and numerical solution schemes can be easily tested. - The mass and energy conservation was confirmed for single-phase liquid and single-phase vapor flows. - It was confirmed that the inlet pressure and velocity boundary conditions work properly. - It was confirmed that, for single- and two-phase flows, the velocity and temperature of non-existing phase are calculated as intended. - During the simulation of a two-phase flow, the calculation reaches a quasisteady state with small-amplitude oscillations. The oscillations seem to be induced by some numerical causes. The research items for the improvement of the basic pilot code are listed in the last section of this report.

  12. Pattern-oriented modelling: a ‘multi-scope’ for predictive systems ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Volker; Railsback, Steven F.

    2012-01-01

    Modern ecology recognizes that modelling systems across scales and at multiple levels—especially to link population and ecosystem dynamics to individual adaptive behaviour—is essential for making the science predictive. ‘Pattern-oriented modelling’ (POM) is a strategy for doing just this. POM is the multi-criteria design, selection and calibration of models of complex systems. POM starts with identifying a set of patterns observed at multiple scales and levels that characterize a system with respect to the particular problem being modelled; a model from which the patterns emerge should contain the right mechanisms to address the problem. These patterns are then used to (i) determine what scales, entities, variables and processes the model needs, (ii) test and select submodels to represent key low-level processes such as adaptive behaviour, and (iii) find useful parameter values during calibration. Patterns are already often used in these ways, but a mini-review of applications of POM confirms that making the selection and use of patterns more explicit and rigorous can facilitate the development of models with the right level of complexity to understand ecological systems and predict their response to novel conditions. PMID:22144392

  13. Ecological aspects in sustainable development model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurlapov, L.I.

    1996-01-01

    Environment problems are caused by intensive use of natural resources due to scientific progress in combination with the present structure of unlimited consumption. To prevent the impending ecological disaster a model of sustainable development has been worked out. It is aimed at satisfying the ever-growing requirements of the modern man without damaging the environment. Scientifically grounded use of nature mat contribute to solution of the problem. The acceptable use of nature should take account of the land ecosystem resources which is ensured by reliable model including flow balance in particular. Irreversible flows generate entropy which could be the universal measure of technic genetics impact. Entropic condition of the acceptable (sustainable) development are started: techno-genic entropy production must be less than natural entropy production. Particular sciences should be re-oriented towards environmental problems. Environmental monitoring strategy should provide for determination of macro properties as well as flows. (author)

  14. On the specification of structural equation models for ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grace, James B.; Anderson, T. Michael; Olff, Han; Scheiner, Samuel M.

    The use of structural equation modeling (SEM) is often motivated by its utility for investigating complex networks of relationships, but also because of its promise as a means of representing theoretical Concepts using latent variables. In this paper, we discuss characteristics of ecological theory

  15. Pre-Service Teachers' Mental Models of Basic Astronomy Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arslan, A. Saglam; Durikan, U.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the present study is to determine pre-service teachers' mental models related to basic astronomy concepts. The study was conducted using a survey method with 293 pre-service teachers from 4 different departments; physics education, science education, primary teacher education and early childhood education. An achievement test with…

  16. Applying ecological models to communities of genetic elements: the case of neutral theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linquist, Stefan; Cottenie, Karl; Elliott, Tyler A; Saylor, Brent; Kremer, Stefan C; Gregory, T Ryan

    2015-07-01

    A promising recent development in molecular biology involves viewing the genome as a mini-ecosystem, where genetic elements are compared to organisms and the surrounding cellular and genomic structures are regarded as the local environment. Here, we critically evaluate the prospects of ecological neutral theory (ENT), a popular model in ecology, as it applies at the genomic level. This assessment requires an overview of the controversy surrounding neutral models in community ecology. In particular, we discuss the limitations of using ENT both as an explanation of community dynamics and as a null hypothesis. We then analyse a case study in which ENT has been applied to genomic data. Our central finding is that genetic elements do not conform to the requirements of ENT once its assumptions and limitations are made explicit. We further compare this genome-level application of ENT to two other, more familiar approaches in genomics that rely on neutral mechanisms: Kimura's molecular neutral theory and Lynch's mutational-hazard model. Interestingly, this comparison reveals that there are two distinct concepts of neutrality associated with these models, which we dub 'fitness neutrality' and 'competitive neutrality'. This distinction helps to clarify the various roles for neutral models in genomics, for example in explaining the evolution of genome size. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. A survey of basic reproductive ratios in vector-borne disease transmission modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soewono, E.; Aldila, D.

    2015-03-01

    Vector-borne diseases are commonly known in tropical and subtropical countries. These diseases have contributed to more than 10% of world infectious disease cases. Among the vectors responsible for transmitting the diseases are mosquitoes, ticks, fleas, flies, bugs and worms. Several of the diseases are known to contribute to the increasing threat to human health such as malaria, dengue, filariasis, chikungunya, west nile fever, yellow fever, encephalistis, and anthrax. It is necessary to understand the real process of infection, factors which contribute to the complication of the transmission in order to come up with a good and sound mathematical model. Although it is not easy to simulate the real transmission process of the infection, we could say that almost all models have been developed from the already long known Host-Vector model. It constitutes the main transmission processes i.e. birth, death, infection and recovery. From this simple model, the basic concepts of Disease Free and Endemic Equilibria and Basic Reproductive Ratio can be well explained and understood. Theoretical, modeling, control and treatment aspects of disease transmission problems have then been developed for various related diseases. General construction as well as specific forms of basic reproductive ratios for vector-borne diseases are discusses here.

  18. A DPSIR model for ecological security assessment through indicator screening: a case study at Dianchi Lake in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhen Wang

    Full Text Available Given the important role of lake ecosystems in social and economic development, and the current severe environmental degradation in China, a systematic diagnosis of the ecological security of lakes is essential for sustainable development. A Driving-force, Pressure, Status, Impact, and Risk (DPSIR model, combined with data screening for lake ecological security assessment was developed to overcome the disadvantages of data selection in existing assessment methods. Correlation and principal component analysis were used to select independent and representative data. The DPSIR model was then applied to evaluate the ecological security of Dianchi Lake in China during 1988-2007 using an ecological security index. The results revealed a V-shaped trend. The application of the DPSIR model with data screening provided useful information regarding the status of the lake's ecosystem, while ensuring information efficiency and eliminating multicollinearity. The modeling approach described here is practical and operationally efficient, and provides an attractive alternative approach to assess the ecological security of lakes.

  19. A Framework for Linking Population Model Development with Ecological Risk Assessment Objectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The value of models that link organism‐level impacts to the responses of a population in ecological risk assessments (ERAs) has been demonstrated extensively over the past few decades. There is little debate about the utility of these models to translate multiple organism&#...

  20. Linking Bayesian and agent-based models to simulate complex social-ecological systems in semi-arid regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aloah J Pope

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Interdependencies of ecologic, hydrologic, and social systems challenge traditional approaches to natural resource management in semi-arid regions. As a complex social-ecological system, water demands in the Sonoran Desert from agricultural and urban users often conflicts with water needs for its ecologically-significant riparian corridors. To explore this system, we developed an agent-based model to simulate complex feedbacks between human decisions and environmental conditions in the Rio Sonora Watershed. Cognitive mapping in conjunction with stakeholder participation produced a Bayesian model of conditional probabilities of local human decision-making processes resulting to changes in water demand. Probabilities created in the Bayesian model were incorporated into the agent-based model, so that each agent had a unique probability to make a positive decision based on its perceived environment at each point in time and space. By using a Bayesian approach, uncertainty in the human decision-making process could be incorporated. The spatially-explicit agent-based model simulated changes in depth-to-groundwater by well pumping based on an agent’s water demand. Changes in depth-to-groundwater feedback to influence agent behavior, as well as determine unique vegetation classes within the riparian corridor. Each vegetation class then provides varying stakeholder-defined quality values of ecosystem services. Using this modeling approach allowed us to examine effects on both the ecological and social system of semi-arid riparian corridors under various scenarios. The insight provided by the model contributes to understanding how specific interventions may alter the complex social-ecological system in the future.

  1. An online database for informing ecological network models: http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beas-Luna, Rodrigo; Novak, Mark; Carr, Mark H; Tinker, Martin T; Black, August; Caselle, Jennifer E; Hoban, Michael; Malone, Dan; Iles, Alison

    2014-01-01

    Ecological network models and analyses are recognized as valuable tools for understanding the dynamics and resiliency of ecosystems, and for informing ecosystem-based approaches to management. However, few databases exist that can provide the life history, demographic and species interaction information necessary to parameterize ecological network models. Faced with the difficulty of synthesizing the information required to construct models for kelp forest ecosystems along the West Coast of North America, we developed an online database (http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu/) to facilitate the collation and dissemination of such information. Many of the database's attributes are novel yet the structure is applicable and adaptable to other ecosystem modeling efforts. Information for each taxonomic unit includes stage-specific life history, demography, and body-size allometries. Species interactions include trophic, competitive, facilitative, and parasitic forms. Each data entry is temporally and spatially explicit. The online data entry interface allows researchers anywhere to contribute and access information. Quality control is facilitated by attributing each entry to unique contributor identities and source citations. The database has proven useful as an archive of species and ecosystem-specific information in the development of several ecological network models, for informing management actions, and for education purposes (e.g., undergraduate and graduate training). To facilitate adaptation of the database by other researches for other ecosystems, the code and technical details on how to customize this database and apply it to other ecosystems are freely available and located at the following link (https://github.com/kelpforest-cameo/databaseui).

  2. System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crookes, D J; Blignaut, J N; de Wit, M P; Esler, K J; Le Maitre, D C; Milton, S J; Mitchell, S A; Cloete, J; de Abreu, P; Fourie nee Vlok, H; Gull, K; Marx, D; Mugido, W; Ndhlovu, T; Nowell, M; Pauw, M; Rebelo, A

    2013-05-15

    Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Quantitative plant ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Christian

    2014-01-01

    This e-book is written in the Wolfram' CDF format (download free CDF player from Wolfram.com) The objective of this e-book is to introduce the population ecological concepts for measuring and predicting the ecological success of plant species. This will be done by focusing on the measurement...... and statistical modelling of plant species abundance and the relevant ecological processes that control species abundance. The focus on statistical modelling and likelihood function based methods also means that more algorithm based methods, e.g. ordination techniques and boosted regression tress...

  4. The ecological rationality of state-dependent valuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, J M; Trimmer, P C; Houston, A I

    2012-01-01

    Laboratory studies on a range of animals have identified a bias that seems to violate basic principles of rational behavior: a preference is shown for feeding options that previously provided food when reserves were low, even though another option had been found to give the same reward with less delay. The bias presents a challenge to normative models of decision making (which only take account of expected rewards and the state of the animal at the decision time). To understand the behavior, we take a broad ecological perspective and consider how valuation mechanisms evolve when the best action depends upon the environment being faced. We show that in a changing and uncertain environment, state-dependent valuation can be favored by natural selection: Individuals should allow their hunger to affect learning for future decisions. The valuation mechanism that typically evolves produces the kind of behavior seen in standard laboratory tests. By providing an insight into why learning should be affected by the state of an individual, we provide a basis for understanding psychological principles in terms of an animal's ecology.

  5. Social Interface Model: Theorizing Ecological Post-Delivery Processes for Intervention Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pettigrew, Jonathan; Segrott, Jeremy; Ray, Colter D; Littlecott, Hannah

    2018-01-03

    Successful prevention programs depend on a complex interplay among aspects of the intervention, the participant, the specific intervention setting, and the broader set of contexts with which a participant interacts. There is a need to theorize what happens as participants bring intervention ideas and behaviors into other life-contexts, and theory has not yet specified how social interactions about interventions may influence outcomes. To address this gap, we use an ecological perspective to develop the social interface model. This paper presents the key components of the model and its potential to aid the design and implementation of prevention interventions. The model is predicated on the idea that intervention message effectiveness depends not only on message aspects but also on the participants' adoption and adaptation of the message vis-à-vis their social ecology. The model depicts processes by which intervention messages are received and enacted by participants through social processes occurring within and between relevant microsystems. Mesosystem interfaces (negligible interface, transference, co-dependence, and interdependence) can facilitate or detract from intervention effects. The social interface model advances prevention science by theorizing that practitioners can create better quality interventions by planning for what occurs after interventions are delivered.

  6. Editorial Commentary: A Model for Shoulder Rotator Cuff Repair and for Basic Science Investigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Jefferson C

    2018-04-01

    "Breaking the fourth wall" is a theater convention where the narrator or character speaks directly to the audience. As an Assistant Editor-in-Chief, as I comment on a recent basic science study investigating rotator cuff repair, I break the fourth wall and articulate areas of basic science research excellence that align with the vision that we hold for our journal. Inclusion of a powerful video strengthens the submission. We prefer to publish clinical videos in our companion journal, Arthroscopy Techniques, and encourage basic science video submissions to Arthroscopy. Basic science research requires step-by-tedious-step analogous to climbing a mountain. Establishment of a murine rotator cuff repair model was rigorous and research intensive, biomechanically, radiographically, histologically, and genetically documented, a huge step toward the bone-to-tendon healing research summit. This research results in a model for both rotator cuff repair and the pinnacle of quality, basic science research. Copyright © 2018 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Developing ecological site and state-and-transition models for grazed riparian pastures at Tejon Ranch, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felix P. Ratcliff; James Bartolome; Michele Hammond; Sheri Spiegal; Michael White

    2015-01-01

    Ecological site descriptions and associated state-and-transition models are useful tools for understanding the variable effects of management and environment on range resources. Models for woody riparian sites have yet to be fully developed. At Tejon Ranch, in the southern San Joaquin Valley of California, we are using ecological site theory to investigate the role of...

  8. Ecological risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartell, S.M.; Gardner, R.H.; O'Neill, R.V.

    1992-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment, the process that evaluates the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur or are occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stressors, is being developed by the US EPA as a tool for decision making. This book presents one approach to risk assessment-that of applying laboratory toxicity data within an ecosystem model to predict the potential ecological consequences of toxic chemicals. Both Standard Water Column Model (SWACOM), using zooplankton and fish, and Monte Carlo simulations are discussed in detail, along with quantitative explanations for many responses. Simplifying assumptions are explicitly presented. The final chapter discusses strengths, weaknesses, and future directions of the approach. The book is appropriate for anyone who does or uses ecological risk assessment methodologies

  9. ECOLOGICAL ETHICS. VALUES AND NORMS IN LOCAL RURAL COMMUNITIES

    OpenAIRE

    Włodzimierz Kaczocha; Jan Sikora

    2016-01-01

    An important role in sustainable rural development, involving economy, local communities and nature, should be played by ethics. This paper presents a theoretical and empirical characterization of basic problems of ecological ethics. First and foremost, the study characterizes the philosophical fundamentals of this ethics, with emphasis on ontological and anthropological views of selected thinkers. A universal concept of ecological ethics was proposed, containing values and moral norms that p...

  10. Empirically-based modeling and mapping to consider the co-occurrence of ecological receptors and stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Part of the ecological risk assessment process involves examining the potential for environmental stressors and ecological receptors to co-occur across a landscape. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian joint modeling framework for use in evaluating and mapping the co-occurrence...

  11. Structural Equation Modeling with Mplus Basic Concepts, Applications, and Programming

    CERN Document Server

    Byrne, Barbara M

    2011-01-01

    Modeled after Barbara Byrne's other best-selling structural equation modeling (SEM) books, this practical guide reviews the basic concepts and applications of SEM using Mplus Versions 5 & 6. The author reviews SEM applications based on actual data taken from her own research. Using non-mathematical language, it is written for the novice SEM user. With each application chapter, the author "walks" the reader through all steps involved in testing the SEM model including: an explanation of the issues addressed illustrated and annotated testing of the hypothesized and post hoc models expl

  12. Coupled economic-ecological models for ecosystem-based fishery management: Exploration of trade-offs between model complexity and management needs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thunberg, Eric; Holland, Dan; Nielsen, J. Rasmus

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystem based fishery management has moved beyond rhetorical statements calling for a more holistic approach to resource management, to implementing decisions on resource use that are compatible with goals of maintaining ecosystem health and resilience. Coupled economic-ecological models...... are a primary tool for informing these decisions. Recognizing the importance of these models, the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas (ICES) formed a Study Group on Integration of Economics, Stock Assessment and Fisheries Management (SGIMM) to explore alternative modelling approaches...... and ecological systems are inherently complex, models are abstractions of these systems incorporating varying levels of complexity depending on available data and the management issues to be addressed. The objective of this special session was to assess the pros and cons of increasing model complexity...

  13. Quantifying Ecology: Constructing Life History Tables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balgopal, Meena M.; Ode, Paul J.

    2009-01-01

    In the biology community there has been a call for integrating lessons on population growth rate and the human population crisis into biology classrooms. Ecologists fear that students do not understand the relationship between the magnitude of the human population growth and Earth's carrying capacity, as well as some basic ecological concepts. The…

  14. Automated experimentation in ecological networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lurgi, Miguel; Robertson, David

    2011-05-09

    In ecological networks, natural communities are studied from a complex systems perspective by representing interactions among species within them in the form of a graph, which is in turn analysed using mathematical tools. Topological features encountered in complex networks have been proved to provide the systems they represent with interesting attributes such as robustness and stability, which in ecological systems translates into the ability of communities to resist perturbations of different kinds. A focus of research in community ecology is on understanding the mechanisms by which these complex networks of interactions among species in a community arise. We employ an agent-based approach to model ecological processes operating at the species' interaction level for the study of the emergence of organisation in ecological networks. We have designed protocols of interaction among agents in a multi-agent system based on ecological processes occurring at the interaction level between species in plant-animal mutualistic communities. Interaction models for agents coordination thus engineered facilitate the emergence of network features such as those found in ecological networks of interacting species, in our artificial societies of agents. Agent based models developed in this way facilitate the automation of the design an execution of simulation experiments that allow for the exploration of diverse behavioural mechanisms believed to be responsible for community organisation in ecological communities. This automated way of conducting experiments empowers the study of ecological networks by exploiting the expressive power of interaction models specification in agent systems.

  15. An evolutionary ecology of individual differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dall, Sasha R. X.; Bell, Alison M.; Bolnick, Daniel I.; Ratnieks, Francis L. W.

    2014-01-01

    Individuals often differ in what they do. This has been recognised since antiquity. Nevertheless, the ecological and evolutionary significance of such variation is attracting widespread interest, which is burgeoning to an extent that is fragmenting the literature. As a first attempt at synthesis, we focus on individual differences in behaviour within populations that exceed the day-to-day variation in individual behaviour (i.e. behavioural specialisation). Indeed, the factors promoting ecologically relevant behavioural specialisation within natural populations are likely to have far-reaching ecological and evolutionary consequences. We discuss such individual differences from three distinct perspectives: individual niche specialisations, the division of labour within insect societies and animal personality variation. In the process, while recognising that each area has its own unique motivations, we identify a number of opportunities for productive ‘crossfertilisation’ among the (largely independent) bodies of work. We conclude that a complete understanding of evolutionarily and ecologically relevant individual differences must specify how ecological interactions impact the basic biological process (e.g. Darwinian selection, development and information processing) that underpin the organismal features determining behavioural specialisations. Moreover, there is likely to be covariation amongst behavioural specialisations. Thus, we sketch the key elements of a general framework for studying the evolutionary ecology of individual differences. PMID:22897772

  16. Revitalizing Traditional Chinese Concepts in the Modern Ecological Civilization Debate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arler, Finn

    2018-01-01

    The subject of this paper is the question of China’s contribution to the establishment of an association of ecological civilizations—as seen from the perspective of a European—given the growing economic, political, and ecological influence that China has in the world today. The question is which...... worldviews? The paper discusses a number of modern interpretations that have argued that some basic concepts in the Chinese tradition are not only congenial with, but even provide fruitful additions to the modern debate about the establishment of cooperative ecological civilizations. In the final part...

  17. The early history of modern ecological economics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2004-01-01

    This paper provides a historical perspective for the discussion on ecological economics as a special field of research. By studying the historical background of ecological economics, the present discussions and tensions inside the field might become easier to understand and to relate to. The study...... is inspired by other studies of the emergence of new research areas done by sociologists and historians of science, and includes both cognitive and social aspects, macro trends and the role of individuals. The basis for the paper is a combination of literature studies and interviews with key researchers from...... the field. The story opens with the emergence of the new environmental agenda in the 1960s, which was influenced by the scientific development in biology and ecology. Then it is outlined how the environmental challenge was met by economics in the 1960s. Around 1970 the basic ideas of ecological economics...

  18. Perspectives on why digital ecologies matter: combining population genetics and ecologically informed agent-based models with GIS for managing dipteran livestock pests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peck, Steven L

    2014-10-01

    It is becoming clear that handling the inherent complexity found in ecological systems is an essential task for finding ways to control insect pests of tropical livestock such as tsetse flies, and old and new world screwworms. In particular, challenging multivalent management programs, such as Area Wide Integrated Pest Management (AW-IPM), face daunting problems of complexity at multiple spatial scales, ranging from landscape level processes to those of smaller scales such as the parasite loads of individual animals. Daunting temporal challenges also await resolution, such as matching management time frames to those found on ecological and even evolutionary temporal scales. How does one deal with representing processes with models that involve multiple spatial and temporal scales? Agent-based models (ABM), combined with geographic information systems (GIS), may allow for understanding, predicting and managing pest control efforts in livestock pests. This paper argues that by incorporating digital ecologies in our management efforts clearer and more informed decisions can be made. I also point out the power of these models in making better predictions in order to anticipate the range of outcomes possible or likely. Copyright © 2014 International Atomic Energy Agency 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A; Myin-Germeys, Inez

    2016-03-01

    Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals' daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Ecological monitoring in a discrete-time prey-predator model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gámez, M; López, I; Rodríguez, C; Varga, Z; Garay, J

    2017-09-21

    The paper is aimed at the methodological development of ecological monitoring in discrete-time dynamic models. In earlier papers, in the framework of continuous-time models, we have shown how a systems-theoretical methodology can be applied to the monitoring of the state process of a system of interacting populations, also estimating certain abiotic environmental changes such as pollution, climatic or seasonal changes. In practice, however, there may be good reasons to use discrete-time models. (For instance, there may be discrete cycles in the development of the populations, or observations can be made only at discrete time steps.) Therefore the present paper is devoted to the development of the monitoring methodology in the framework of discrete-time models of population ecology. By monitoring we mean that, observing only certain component(s) of the system, we reconstruct the whole state process. This may be necessary, e.g., when in a complex ecosystem the observation of the densities of certain species is impossible, or too expensive. For the first presentation of the offered methodology, we have chosen a discrete-time version of the classical Lotka-Volterra prey-predator model. This is a minimal but not trivial system where the methodology can still be presented. We also show how this methodology can be applied to estimate the effect of an abiotic environmental change, using a component of the population system as an environmental indicator. Although this approach is illustrated in a simplest possible case, it can be easily extended to larger ecosystems with several interacting populations and different types of abiotic environmental effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Fiscal year 1991 100 Areas CERCLA ecological investigations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sackschewsky, M.R.; Landeen, D.S.

    1992-04-01

    This report discusses the status of the ecological investigations conducted by Westinghouse Hanford Company during Fiscal Year 1991. These ecological investigations provide a basic description of the flora and fauna that inhabit the operable units, emphasizing species that have been given special status under existing state and/or federal laws. The 1991 Westinghouse Hanford Company field investigations have concentrated on the following: (1) bird surveys, (2) mammal and insect surveys, (3) vegetation surveys, and (4) vegetation sampling. Work being conducted as part of the vegetation surveys includes a biological assessment of threatened and endangered plants, which is being prepared as a separate document. Similar ecological investigations will be conducted at 100- N, K, and F operable units in 1992

  2. A reciprocal effects model of the temporal ordering of basic psychological needs and motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinent, Guillaume; Guillet-Descas, Emma; Moiret, Sophie

    2015-04-01

    Using self-determination theory as the framework, we examined the temporal ordering between satisfaction and thwarting of basic psychological needs and motivation. We accomplished this goal by using a two-wave 7-month partial least squares path modeling approach (PLS-PM) among a sample of 94 adolescent athletes (Mage = 15.96) in an intensive training setting. The PLS-PM results showed significant paths leading: (a) from T1 satisfaction of basic psychological need for competence to T2 identified regulation, (b) from T1 external regulation to T2 thwarting and satisfaction of basic psychological need for competence, and (c) from T1 amotivation to T2 satisfaction of basic psychological need for relatedness. Overall, our results suggest that the relationship between basic psychological need and motivation varied depending on the type of basic need and motivation assessed. Basic psychological need for competence predicted identified regulation over time whereas amotivation and external regulation predicted basic psychological need for relatedness or competence over time.

  3. The spatial optimism model research for the regional land use based on the ecological constraint

    Science.gov (United States)

    XU, K.; Lu, J.; Chi, Y.

    2013-12-01

    The study focuses on the Yunnan-Guizhou (i.e. Yunnan province and Guizhou province) Plateau in China. Since the Yunnan-Guizhou region consists of closed basins, the land resources suiting for development are in a shortage, and the ecological problems in the area are quite complicated. In such circumstance, in order to get the applicable basins area and distribution, certain spatial optimism model is needed. In this research, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and land use data are used to get the boundary rules of the basins distribution. Furthermore, natural risks, ecological risks and human-made ecological risks are integrated to be analyzed. Finally, the spatial overlay analysis method is used to model the developable basins area and distribution for industries and urbanization. The study process can be divided into six steps. First, basins and their distribution need to be recognized. In this way, the DEM data is used to extract the geomorphology characteristics. The plaque regions with gradient under eight degrees are selected. Among these regions, the total area of the plaque with the area above 8 km2 is 54,000 km2, 10% of the total area. These regions are selected to the potential application of industries and urbanization. In the later five steps, analyses are aimed at these regions. Secondly, the natural risks are analyzed. The conditions of the earthquake, debris flow and rainstorm and flood are combined to classify the natural risks. Thirdly, the ecological risks are analyzed containing the ecological sensibility and ecosystem service function importance. According to the regional ecologic features, the sensibility containing the soil erosion, acid rain, stony desertification and survive condition factors is derived and classified according to the medium value to get the ecological sensibility partition. The ecosystem service function importance is classified and divided considering the biology variation protection and water conservation factors. The fourth

  4. The painted turtle, Chrysemys picta: a model system for vertebrate evolution, ecology, and human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valenzuela, Nicole

    2009-07-01

    Painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) are representatives of a vertebrate clade whose biology and phylogenetic position hold a key to our understanding of fundamental aspects of vertebrate evolution. These features make them an ideal emerging model system. Extensive ecological and physiological research provide the context in which to place new research advances in evolutionary genetics, genomics, evolutionary developmental biology, and ecological developmental biology which are enabled by current resources, such as a bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) library of C. picta, and the imminent development of additional ones such as genome sequences and cDNA and expressed sequence tag (EST) libraries. This integrative approach will allow the research community to continue making advances to provide functional and evolutionary explanations for the lability of biological traits found not only among reptiles but vertebrates in general. Moreover, because humans and reptiles share a common ancestor, and given the ease of using nonplacental vertebrates in experimental biology compared with mammalian embryos, painted turtles are also an emerging model system for biomedical research. For example, painted turtles have been studied to understand many biological responses to overwintering and anoxia, as potential sentinels for environmental xenobiotics, and as a model to decipher the ecology and evolution of sexual development and reproduction. Thus, painted turtles are an excellent reptilian model system for studies with human health, environmental, ecological, and evolutionary significance.

  5. Estimation methods for nonlinear state-space models in ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Berg, Casper Willestofte; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro

    2011-01-01

    The use of nonlinear state-space models for analyzing ecological systems is increasing. A wide range of estimation methods for such models are available to ecologists, however it is not always clear, which is the appropriate method to choose. To this end, three approaches to estimation in the theta...... logistic model for population dynamics were benchmarked by Wang (2007). Similarly, we examine and compare the estimation performance of three alternative methods using simulated data. The first approach is to partition the state-space into a finite number of states and formulate the problem as a hidden...... Markov model (HMM). The second method uses the mixed effects modeling and fast numerical integration framework of the AD Model Builder (ADMB) open-source software. The third alternative is to use the popular Bayesian framework of BUGS. The study showed that state and parameter estimation performance...

  6. Questions on maintenance of ecological safety in space of the CIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maharramov, A.A.

    2009-01-01

    Disintegration of the USSR has led to disintegration uniform economic and legal space and it has led to occurrence of some problems in ecological sphere. In given article it is shown some directions of maintenance of ecological safety, agreements on this sphere and organizational mechanisms, forms of mutual relations of the CIS countries in this sphere. At the end it is shownthe basic directions on maintenance of ecological safety in framework of CIS and elements of development of mutual relations of the CIS countries

  7. The logic of ecological patchiness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grünbaum, Daniel

    2012-04-06

    Most ecological interactions occur in environments that are spatially and temporally heterogeneous-'patchy'-across a wide range of scales. In contrast, most theoretical models of ecological interactions, especially large-scale models applied to societal issues such as climate change, resource management and human health, are based on 'mean field' approaches in which the underlying patchiness of interacting consumers and resources is intentionally averaged out. Mean field ecological models typically have the advantages of tractability, few parameters and clear interpretation; more technically complex spatially explicit models, which resolve ecological patchiness at some (or all relevant) scales, generally lack these advantages. This report presents a heuristic analysis that incorporates important elements of consumer-resource patchiness with minimal technical complexity. The analysis uses scaling arguments to establish conditions under which key mechanisms-movement, reproduction and consumption-strongly affect consumer-resource interactions in patchy environments. By very general arguments, the relative magnitudes of these three mechanisms are quantified by three non-dimensional ecological indices: the Frost, Strathmann and Lessard numbers. Qualitative analysis based on these ecological indices provides a basis for conjectures concerning the expected characteristics of organisms, species interactions and ecosystems in patchy environments.

  8. Best practices for reporting climate data in ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morueta-Holme, Naia; Oldfather, Meagan F.; Olliff-Yang, Rachael L.; Weitz, Andrew P.; Levine, Carrie R.; Kling, Matthew M.; Riordan, Erin C.; Merow, Cory; Sheth, Seema N.; Thornhill, Andrew H.; Ackerly, David D.

    2018-01-01

    A large number of published ecological studies fail to include basic information about the climate data used. In the interest of reproducibility and transparency, we offer recommendations for best practices that we urge Editors, authors, and reviewers to adopt in future publications.

  9. AN INTERSECTION IN THE ECOLOGICAL PARADIGM: ECOLOGIST CINEMA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Refik YASLIKAYA

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We have witnessed the rise of ecologist movements since the second half of 20. Century when it is understood that t he mankind has exploited and polluted the world he/ she lives on as far as the world will be exterminated by the mankind. This rise has sometimes been concrete with the acts of an organization that is environmental protector; has come into existence with t he basic thesis of green parties that contains ecologist policies or has been one of the basic arguments of international politics. As a consequence of this, environmental awareness and protectionist approach have been mentioned from national policy docume nts and green party programs to international/ supranational agreements and acts of environmentalist activists in the academic studies in a broad framework. Moreover, a lot of ecological based philosophical trend like deep ecology, eco - socialism, eco - femin ism, etc. has emerged in this process. In the period in question, a sector has also adopted the environmental awareness as a subject; but this sector’s activities haven’t been mentioned so much in academic studies. Mentioned sector is cinema; in other wor ds, it is American and European based film industry. American based Holywood is the center that made the first production in this sense. Starting from 1970’s, lots of films have been begun to play under the main topic of disaster movie. European film indus try has started to use this theme as of 2000’s yet. First produced films were fictionalized via disaster scenarios which arise depending on a singular problem. In this frame, lots of factors like an earthquake, flood, a disease that a virus appears suddenl y creates were thought as the initiator of disaster. The solutions found for singular problem are usually the solutions found depending on the work of a person or a small group of professionals. In time, we can see that the themes change into global ecolog ical disasters which affect the world in general

  10. Dynamically linking economic models to ecological condition for coastal zone management: Application to sustainable tourism planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dvarskas, Anthony

    2017-03-01

    While the development of the tourism industry can bring economic benefits to an area, it is important to consider the long-run impact of the industry on a given location. Particularly when the tourism industry relies upon a certain ecological state, those weighing different development options need to consider the long-run impacts of increased tourist numbers upon measures of ecological condition. This paper presents one approach for linking a model of recreational visitor behavior with an ecological model that estimates the impact of the increased visitors upon the environment. Two simulations were run for the model using initial parameters available from survey data and water quality data for beach locations in Croatia. Results suggest that the resilience of a given tourist location to the changes brought by increasing tourism numbers is important in determining its long-run sustainability. Further work should investigate additional model components, including the tourism industry, refinement of the relationships assumed by the model, and application of the proposed model in additional areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Forest Fire Ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zucca, Carol; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Presents a model that integrates high school science with the needs of the local scientific community. Describes how a high school ecology class conducted scientific research in fire ecology that benefited the students and a state park forest ecologist. (MKR)

  12. An ecological model of the impact of sexual assault on women's mental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Rebecca; Dworkin, Emily; Cabral, Giannina

    2009-07-01

    This review examines the psychological impact of adult sexual assault through an ecological theoretical perspective to understand how factors at multiple levels of the social ecology contribute to post-assault sequelae. Using Bronfenbrenner's (1979, 1986, 1995) ecological theory of human development, we examine how individual-level factors (e.g., sociodemographics, biological/genetic factors), assault characteristics (e.g., victim-offender relationship, injury, alcohol use), microsystem factors (e.g., informal support from family and friends), meso/ exosystem factors (e.g., contact with the legal, medical, and mental health systems, and rape crisis centers), macrosystem factors (e.g., societal rape myth acceptance), and chronosystem factors (e.g., sexual revictimization and history of other victimizations) affect adult sexual assault survivors' mental health outcomes (e.g., post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, suicidality, and substance use). Self-blame is conceptualized as meta-construct that stems from all levels of this ecological model. Implications for curbing and/or preventing the negative mental health effects of sexual assault are discussed.

  13. Basic first-order model theory in Mizar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Bright Caminati

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The author has submitted to Mizar Mathematical Library a series of five articles introducing a framework for the formalization of classical first-order model theory.In them, Goedel's completeness and Lowenheim-Skolem theorems have also been formalized for the countable case, to offer a first application of it and to showcase its utility.This is an overview and commentary on some key aspects of this setup.It features exposition and discussion of a new encoding of basic definitions and theoretical gears needed for the task, remarks about the design strategies and approaches adopted in their implementation, and more general reflections about proof checking induced by the work done.

  14. Toward an Agathocentric Ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erazim Kohák

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available I should like to submit to you a simple, basic thesis--that what we are accustomed to calling the "ecological crisis" is not a product of a conflict between human needs and the needs of nature but of a flawed perception of what our needs in truth are. It is, I believe, a crisis of our humanity rather than one of nature or technology, and so requires not only technological but also humanistic answers.

  15. Microbial ecology-based methods to characterize the bacterial communities of non-model insects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prosdocimi, Erica M; Mapelli, Francesca; Gonella, Elena; Borin, Sara; Crotti, Elena

    2015-12-01

    Among the animals of the Kingdom Animalia, insects are unparalleled for their widespread diffusion, diversity and number of occupied ecological niches. In recent years they have raised researcher interest not only because of their importance as human and agricultural pests, disease vectors and as useful breeding species (e.g. honeybee and silkworm), but also because of their suitability as animal models. It is now fully recognized that microorganisms form symbiotic relationships with insects, influencing their survival, fitness, development, mating habits and the immune system and other aspects of the biology and ecology of the insect host. Thus, any research aimed at deepening the knowledge of any given insect species (perhaps species of applied interest or species emerging as novel pests or vectors) must consider the characterization of the associated microbiome. The present review critically examines the microbiology and molecular ecology techniques that can be applied to the taxonomical and functional analysis of the microbiome of non-model insects. Our goal is to provide an overview of current approaches and methods addressing the ecology and functions of microorganisms and microbiomes associated with insects. Our focus is on operational details, aiming to provide a concise guide to currently available advanced techniques, in an effort to extend insect microbiome research beyond simple descriptions of microbial communities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Improving communication and validation of ecological models : a case study on the dispersal of aquatic macroinvertebrates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Augusiak, Jacqueline A.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, ecological effect models have been put forward as tools for supporting environmental decision-making. Often they are the only way to take the relevant spatial and temporal scales and the multitude of processes characteristic to ecological systems into account. Particularly for

  17. Southern marl prairies conceptual ecological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, S.M.; Loftus, W.F.; Gaiser, E.E.; Huffman, A.E.

    2005-01-01

    About 190,000 ha of higher-elevation marl prairies flank either side of Shark River Slough in the southern Everglades. Water levels typically drop below the ground surface each year in this landscape. Consequently, peat soil accretion is inhibited, and substrates consist either of calcitic marl produced by algal periphyton mats or exposed limestone bedrock. The southern marl prairies support complex mosaics of wet prairie, sawgrass sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense), tree islands, and tropical hammock communities and a high diversity of plant species. However, relatively short hydroperiods and annual dry downs provide stressful conditions for aquatic fauna, affecting survival in the dry season when surface water is absent. Here, we present a conceptual ecological model developed for this landscape through scientific concensus, use of empirical data, and modeling. The two major societal drivers affecting the southern marl prairies are water management practices and agricultural and urban development. These drivers lead to five groups of ecosystem stressors: loss of spatial extent and connectivity, shortened hydroperiod and increased drought severity, extended hydroperiod and drying pattern reversals, introduction and spread of non-native trees, and introduction and spread of non-native fishes. Major ecological attributes include periphyton mats, plant species diversity and community mosaic, Cape Sable seaside sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis), marsh fishes and associated aquatic fauna prey base, American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis), and wading bird early dry season foraging. Water management and development are hypothesized to have a negative effect on the ecological attributes of the southern marl prairies in the following ways. Periphyton mats have decreased in cover in areas where hydroperiod has been significantly reduced and changed in community composition due to inverse responses to increased nutrient availability. Plant species diversity and

  18. ecological geological maps: GIS-based evaluation of the Geo-Ecological Quality Index (GEQUI) in Sicily (Central Mediterranean)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigro, Fabrizio; Arisco, Giuseppe; Perricone, Marcella; Renda, Pietro; Favara, Rocco

    2010-05-01

    synthetic way. The first, characterized or estimated, prognosticated one or several indexes of geological ecological conditions. In the second type of maps, the whole complex is reflected, which defined the modern or prognosticable ecological geological situation. Regarding the ecological geological zoning maps, the contemporary state of ecological geological conditions may be evaluated by a range of parameters into classes of conditions and, on the basis of these informations, the estimation from the position of comfort and safety of human life and function of ecosystem is given. Otherwise, the concept of geoecological land evaluation has become established in the study of landscape/environmental plannings in recent years. It requires different thematic data-sets, deriving from the natural-, social- and amenity-environmental resources analysis, that may be translate in environmental (vulnerability/quality) indexes. There have been some attempts to develop integrated indices related to various aspects of the environment within the framework of sustainable development (e.g.: United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development, World Economic Forum, Advisory Board on Indicators of Sustainable Development of the International Institute for Sustainable Development, Living Planet Index established by the World Wide Fund for Nature, etc.). So, the ecological geological maps represent the basic tool for the geoecological land evaluation policies and may be computed in terms of index-maps. On these basis, a GIS application for assessing the ecological geological zoning is presented for Sicily (Central Mediterranean). The Geo-Ecological Quality Index (GEQUI) map was computed by considering a lot of variables. Ten variables (lithology, climate, landslide distribution, erosion rate, soil type, land cover, habitat, groundwater pollution, roads density and buildings density) generated from available data, were used in the model, in which weighting values to each informative layer were

  19. Bioindication and ecological rate setting with radioecology taken as an example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krivolutskij, D.A.; Tikhomirov, F.A.; Fedorov, E.A.; Smirnov, E.G.; Moskovskij Gosudarstvennyj Univ.

    1986-01-01

    Necessity in ecological rate setting of technogenic contaminations (including radionuclides) in topsoil and soils is substantiated. Bioindication of technogenic contaminations with provision for community of distribution and migration of contaminating substances in topsoil and their effect on organisms, populations and biocenoses is suggested as one of approaches to ecological rate setting. General problems of methodology and objects of ecological rate setting in phytocenoses and zoocenoses are discussed. Basic principles and criteria of rate setting of contaminating substance content in soils are considered with provision for regional soil-climatic conditions and contaminating substance properties

  20. Ecological validity of cost-effectiveness models of universal HPV vaccination: A systematic literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Favato, Giampiero; Easton, Tania; Vecchiato, Riccardo; Noikokyris, Emmanouil

    2017-05-09

    The protective (herd) effect of the selective vaccination of pubertal girls against human papillomavirus (HPV) implies a high probability that one of the two partners involved in intercourse is immunised, hence preventing the other from this sexually transmitted infection. The dynamic transmission models used to inform immunisation policy should include consideration of sexual behaviours and population mixing in order to demonstrate an ecological validity, whereby the scenarios modelled remain faithful to the real-life social and cultural context. The primary aim of this review is to test the ecological validity of the universal HPV vaccination cost-effectiveness modelling available in the published literature. The research protocol related to this systematic review has been registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42016034145). Eight published economic evaluations were reviewed. None of the studies showed due consideration of the complexities of human sexual behaviour and the impact this may have on the transmission of HPV. Our findings indicate that all the included models might be affected by a different degree of ecological bias, which implies an inability to reflect the natural demographic and behavioural trends in their outcomes and, consequently, to accurately inform public healthcare policy. In particular, ecological bias have the effect to over-estimate the preference-based outcomes of selective immunisation. A relatively small (15-20%) over-estimation of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained with selective immunisation programmes could induce a significant error in the estimate of cost-effectiveness of universal immunisation, by inflating its incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) beyond the acceptability threshold. The results modelled here demonstrate the limitations of the cost-effectiveness studies for HPV vaccination, and highlight the concern that public healthcare policy might have been

  1. Optimising the management of complex dynamic ecosystems. An ecological-economic modelling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hein, L.G.

    2005-01-01

    Keywords: ecological-economic modelling; ecosystem services; resource use; efficient; sustainability; wetlands, rangelands.

  2. The Method of Multiple Spatial Planning Basic Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, C.; Fang, C.

    2018-04-01

    The "Provincial Space Plan Pilot Program" issued in December 2016 pointed out that the existing space management and control information management platforms of various departments were integrated, and a spatial planning information management platform was established to integrate basic data, target indicators, space coordinates, and technical specifications. The planning and preparation will provide supportive decision support, digital monitoring and evaluation of the implementation of the plan, implementation of various types of investment projects and space management and control departments involved in military construction projects in parallel to approve and approve, and improve the efficiency of administrative approval. The space planning system should be set up to delimit the control limits for the development of production, life and ecological space, and the control of use is implemented. On the one hand, it is necessary to clarify the functional orientation between various kinds of planning space. On the other hand, it is necessary to achieve "multi-compliance" of various space planning. Multiple spatial planning intergration need unified and standard basic map(geographic database and technical specificaton) to division of urban, agricultural, ecological three types of space and provide technical support for the refinement of the space control zoning for the relevant planning. The article analysis the main space datum, the land use classification standards, base map planning, planning basic platform main technical problems. Based on the geographic conditions, the results of the census preparation of spatial planning map, and Heilongjiang, Hainan many rules combined with a pilot application.

  3. Ecological risk analysis as a key factor in environmental safety system development in the Arctic region of the Russian Federation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolsunovskaya, Y A; Bolsunovskaya, L M

    2015-01-01

    Due to specific natural and climatic conditions combined with human intervention, the Arctic is regarded as a highly sensitive region to any environmental pressures. Arctic projects require continuous environmental monitoring. This poses for the government of the Russian Federation (RF) a tremendous task concerning the formation and implementation of sustainable nature management policy within the international framework. The current article examines the basic constraints to the effective ecological safety system implementation in the Arctic region of the RF. The ecological risks and their effects which influence the sustainable development of the region were analyzed. The model of complex environmental safety system was proposed

  4. Ecological Applications of Qualitative Reasoning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bredeweg, B.; Salles, P.; Neumann, M.; Recknagel, F.

    2006-01-01

    Representing qualitative ecological knowledge is of great interest for ecological modelling. QR provides means to build conceptual models and to make qualitative knowledge explicit, organized and manageable by means of symbolic computing. This chapter discusses the main characteristics of QR using

  5. Self-consistent approach for neutral community models with speciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haegeman, Bart; Etienne, Rampal S.

    2010-03-01

    Hubbell’s neutral model provides a rich theoretical framework to study ecological communities. By incorporating both ecological and evolutionary time scales, it allows us to investigate how communities are shaped by speciation processes. The speciation model in the basic neutral model is particularly simple, describing speciation as a point-mutation event in a birth of a single individual. The stationary species abundance distribution of the basic model, which can be solved exactly, fits empirical data of distributions of species’ abundances surprisingly well. More realistic speciation models have been proposed such as the random-fission model in which new species appear by splitting up existing species. However, no analytical solution is available for these models, impeding quantitative comparison with data. Here, we present a self-consistent approximation method for neutral community models with various speciation modes, including random fission. We derive explicit formulas for the stationary species abundance distribution, which agree very well with simulations. We expect that our approximation method will be useful to study other speciation processes in neutral community models as well.

  6. Common challenges for ecological modelling: synthesis of facilitated discussions held at the symposia organized for the 2009 conference of the International Society for Ecological Modelling in Quebec City, Canada, (October 6-9, 2009)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larocque, Guy R.; Mailly, D.; Yue, T.-X.; Anand, M.; Peng, C.; Kazanci, C.; Etterson, M.; Goethals, P.; Jorgensen, S.E.; Schramski, J.R.; McIntire, E.J.B.; Marceau, D.J.; Chen, B.; Chen, G.Q.; Yang, Z.F.; Novotna, B.; Luckai, N.; Bhatti, Jagtar S.; Liu, J.; Munson, A.; Gordon, Andrew M.; Ascough, J.C.

    2011-01-01

    The eleven symposia organized for the 2009 conference of the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM 2009) held in Quebec City, Canada, October 6–9, 2009, included facilitated discussion sessions following formal presentations. Each symposium focused on a specific subject, and all the subjects could be classified into three broad categories: theoretical development, population dynamics and ecosystem processes. Following discussions with the symposia organizers, which indicated that they all shared similar issues and concerns, the facilitated discussions were task-oriented around four basic questions: (1) key challenges in the research area, (2) generating and sharing new ideas, (3) improving collaboration and networking, and (4) increasing visibility to decision-makers, partners and clients. Common challenges that emerged from the symposia included the need for improved communication and collaboration among different academic disciplines, further progress in both theoretical and practical modelling approaches, and accentuation of technology transfer. Regarding the generation and sharing of new ideas, the main issue that emerged was the type of positive interactions that should be encouraged among potential collaborators. The usefulness of the Internet, particularly for the sharing of open-source software and conducting discussion forums, was highlighted for improving collaboration and networking. Several communication tools are available today, and it is important for modellers to use them more intensively. Visibility can be increased by publishing professional newsletters, maintaining informal contacts with the public, organizing educational sessions in primary and secondary schools, and developing simplified analytical frameworks and pilot studies. Specific issues raised in each symposium are also discussed.

  7. Bridging the gap between theoretical ecology and real ecosystems: modeling invertebrate community composition in streams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuwirth, Nele; Reichert, Peter

    2013-02-01

    For the first time, we combine concepts of theoretical food web modeling, the metabolic theory of ecology, and ecological stoichiometry with the use of functional trait databases to predict the coexistence of invertebrate taxa in streams. We developed a mechanistic model that describes growth, death, and respiration of different taxa dependent on various environmental influence factors to estimate survival or extinction. Parameter and input uncertainty is propagated to model results. Such a model is needed to test our current quantitative understanding of ecosystem structure and function and to predict effects of anthropogenic impacts and restoration efforts. The model was tested using macroinvertebrate monitoring data from a catchment of the Swiss Plateau. Even without fitting model parameters, the model is able to represent key patterns of the coexistence structure of invertebrates at sites varying in external conditions (litter input, shading, water quality). This confirms the suitability of the model concept. More comprehensive testing and resulting model adaptations will further increase the predictive accuracy of the model.

  8. Effect of an intervention based on socio-ecological model in promoting physical activity of female employees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amineh Sahranavard Gargari

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Although active life style is one of the main determining factors of health, the level of regular physical activities in women is less than in men and even this level decreases with aging. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of an intervention based on the social ecological model on promotion of physical activity among female employees. In this study, 160 women employed at Shabestar universities were selected, and randomly divided into two groups of control (n=80 and intervention (n=80. The intervention group received an instructional program according to the model, including one session for general instruction and four sessions for group discussion along with daily walking for 30 minutes within 8 weeks. In order to objectively measure the physical activity, the pedometer was used and to measure the perceived physical activity, the long form of International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ was applied. The variables related to the components of socio-ecological model were measured using the socio-ecological model questionnaire. A significant difference was found between two groups after the intervention in terms of That is, the average number of steps in walking in the intervention group increased significantly (from 4204 to 7882 steps per day, while it did not significantly increase in the control group. Thus, it can be argued that designing and implementing the interventional programs based on the socio-ecological model can promote physical activity behavior among employed women

  9. Coupling ecological and social network models to assess “transmission” and “contagion” of an aquatic invasive species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haak, Danielle M.; Fath, Brian D.; Forbes, Valery E.; Martin, Dustin R.; Pope, Kevin L.

    2017-01-01

    Network analysis is used to address diverse ecological, social, economic, and epidemiological questions, but few efforts have been made to combine these field-specific analyses into interdisciplinary approaches that effectively address how complex systems are interdependent and connected to one another. Identifying and understanding these cross-boundary connections improves natural resource management and promotes proactive, rather than reactive, decisions. This research had two main objectives; first, adapt the framework and approach of infectious disease network modeling so that it may be applied to the socio-ecological problem of spreading aquatic invasive species, and second, use this new coupled model to simulate the spread of the invasive Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) in a reservoir network in Southeastern Nebraska, USA. The coupled model integrates an existing social network model of how anglers move on the landscape with new reservoir-specific ecological network models. This approach allowed us to identify 1) how angler movement among reservoirs aids in the spread of B. chinensis, 2) how B. chinensisalters energy flows within individual-reservoir food webs, and 3) a new method for assessing the spread of any number of non-native or invasive species within complex, social-ecological systems.

  10. Process-based models are required to manage ecological systems in a changing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    K. Cuddington; M.-J. Fortin; L.R. Gerber; A. Hastings; A. Liebhold; M. OConnor; C. Ray

    2013-01-01

    Several modeling approaches can be used to guide management decisions. However, some approaches are better fitted than others to address the problem of prediction under global change. Process-based models, which are based on a theoretical understanding of relevant ecological processes, provide a useful framework to incorporate specific responses to altered...

  11. Simulation of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Removal in Ecological Ditch Based on EFDC Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, S. M.; Wang, X. L.; Zhou, Q. Y.; Han, N. N.

    2018-03-01

    Agricultural non-point source pollution threatens water quality and ecological system recently. To control it, the first and most important task is to control the migration and transformation of nitrogen and phosphorus in the agricultural ditches. An ecological ditch was designed, and according to the design a pilot device was built, the mechanism of N and P removal in ditches under the collaboration of aquatic organisms-hydraulic power was studied through the dynamic and static experiments, in order to find out the specific influences of different environmental factors such as influent concentration, influent flow and water level. The transport and diffusion of N and P in the ditch was simulated by a three dimensional water quality model EFDC, the simulation results and the experimental data were compared. The average relative errors of EFDC model simulated results were all less than 15%, which verified the reliability of the model.

  12. Spatial modelling and ecology of Echinococcus multilocularis transmission in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danson, F Mark; Giraudoux, Patrick; Craig, Philip S

    2006-01-01

    Recent research in central China has suggested that the most likely transmission mechanism for Echinococcus multilocularis to humans is via domestic dogs which are allowed to roam freely and hunt (infected) small mammals within areas close to villages or in areas of tented pasture. This assertion has led to the hypothesis that there is a landscape control on transmission risk since the proximity of suitable habitat for susceptible small mammals appears to be the key. We have tested this hypothesis in a number of endemic areas in China, notably south Gansu Province and the Tibetan region of western Sichuan Province. The fundamental landscape control is its effect at a regional scale on small mammal species assemblages (susceptible species are not ubiquitous) and, at a local scale, the spatial distributions of small mammal populations. To date the research has examined relationships between landscape composition and patterns of human infection, landscape and small mammal distributions and recently the relationships between landscape and dog infection rates. The key tool to characterize landscape is satellite remote sensing and these data are used as inputs to drive spatial models of transmission risk. This paper reviews the progress that has been made so far in spatial modeling of the ecology of E. multilocularis with particular reference to China, outlines current research issues, and describes a framework for building a spatial-temporal model of transmission ecology.

  13. EcoPAD, an interactive platform for near real-time ecological forecasting by assimilating data into model

    Science.gov (United States)

    MA, S.; Huang, Y.; Stacy, M.; Jiang, J.; Sundi, N.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Hanson, P. J.; Luo, Y.; Saruta, V.

    2017-12-01

    Ecological forecasting is critical in various aspects of our coupled human-nature systems, such as disaster risk reduction, natural resource management and climate change mitigation. Novel advancements are in urgent need to deepen our understandings of ecosystem dynamics, boost the predictive capacity of ecology, and provide timely and effective information for decision-makers in a rapidly changing world. Our study presents a smart system - Ecological Platform for Assimilation of Data (EcoPAD) - which streamlines web request-response, data management, model execution, result storage and visualization. EcoPAD allows users to (i) estimate model parameters or state variables, (ii) quantify uncertainty of estimated parameters and projected states of ecosystems, (iii) evaluate model structures, (iv) assess sampling strategies, (v) conduct ecological forecasting, and (vi) detect ecosystem acclimation to climate change. One of the key innovations of the web-based EcoPAD is the automated near- or real-time forecasting of ecosystem dynamics with uncertainty fully quantified. The user friendly webpage enables non-modelers to explore their data for simulation and data assimilation. As a case study, we applied EcoPAD to the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change Experiment (SPRUCE), a whole ecosystem warming and CO2 enrichment treatment project in the northern peatland, assimilated multiple data streams into a process based ecosystem model, enhanced timely feedback between modelers and experimenters, ultimately improved ecosystem forecasting and made better use of current knowledge. Built in a framework with flexible API, EcoPAD is easily portable and will benefit scientific communities, policy makers as well as the general public.

  14. Movement ecology: size-specific behavioral response of an invasive snail to food availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snider, Sunny B; Gilliam, James F

    2008-07-01

    Immigration, emigration, migration, and redistribution describe processes that involve movement of individuals. These movements are an essential part of contemporary ecological models, and understanding how movement is affected by biotic and abiotic factors is important for effectively modeling ecological processes that depend on movement. We asked how phenotypic heterogeneity (body size) and environmental heterogeneity (food resource level) affect the movement behavior of an aquatic snail (Tarebia granifera), and whether including these phenotypic and environmental effects improves advection-diffusion models of movement. We postulated various elaborations of the basic advection diffusion model as a priori working hypotheses. To test our hypotheses we measured individual snail movements in experimental streams at high- and low-food resource treatments. Using these experimental movement data, we examined the dependency of model selection on resource level and body size using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). At low resources, large individuals moved faster than small individuals, producing a platykurtic movement distribution; including size dependency in the model improved model performance. In stark contrast, at high resources, individuals moved upstream together as a wave, and body size differences largely disappeared. The model selection exercise indicated that population heterogeneity is best described by the advection component of movement for this species, because the top-ranked model included size dependency in advection, but not diffusion. Also, all probable models included resource dependency. Thus population and environmental heterogeneities both influence individual movement behaviors and the population-level distribution kernels, and their interaction may drive variation in movement behaviors in terms of both advection rates and diffusion rates. A behaviorally informed modeling framework will integrate the sentient response of individuals in terms of

  15. Watersheds in Baltimore, Maryland: understanding and application of integrated ecological and social processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steward T.A. Pickett; Kenneth T. Belt; Michael F. Galvin; Peter M. Groffman; J. Morgan Grove; Donald C. Outen; Richard V. Pouyat; William P. Stack; Mary L. Cadenasso

    2007-01-01

    The Water and Watersheds program has made significant and lasting contributions to the basic understanding of the complex ecological system of Baltimore, MD. Funded at roughly the same time as the urban Long- Term Ecological Research (LTER) project in Baltimore, the Water and Watersheds grant and the LTER grant together established the Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES)...

  16. Automated Techniques for the Qualitative Analysis of Ecological Models: Continuous Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lynn van Coller

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The mathematics required for a detailed analysis of the behavior of a model can be formidable. In this paper, I demonstrate how various computer packages can aid qualitative analyses by implementing techniques from dynamical systems theory. Because computer software is used to obtain the results, the techniques can be used by nonmathematicians as well as mathematicians. In-depth analyses of complicated models that were previously very difficult to study can now be done. Because the paper is intended as an introduction to applying the techniques to ecological models, I have included an appendix describing some of the ideas and terminology. A second appendix shows how the techniques can be applied to a fairly simple predator-prey model and establishes the reliability of the computer software. The main body of the paper discusses a ratio-dependent model. The new techniques highlight some limitations of isocline analyses in this three-dimensional setting and show that the model is structurally unstable. Another appendix describes a larger model of a sheep-pasture-hyrax-lynx system. Dynamical systems techniques are compared with a traditional sensitivity analysis and are found to give more information. As a result, an incomplete relationship in the model is highlighted. I also discuss the resilience of these models to both parameter and population perturbations.

  17. [Ecology and ecologies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valera, Luca

    2011-01-01

    Ecology (from the Greek words οιχοσ, "house" and λογια "study of") is the science of the "house", since it studies the environments where we live. There are three main ways of thinking about Ecology: Ecology as the study of interactions (between humans and the environment, between humans and living beings, between all living beings, etc.), Ecology as the statistical study of interactions, Ecology as a faith, or rather as a science that requires a metaphysical view. The history of Ecology shows us how this view was released by the label of "folk sense" to gain the epistemological status of science, a science that strives to be interdisciplinary. So, the aim of Ecology is to study, through a scientific methodology, the whole natural world, answering to very different questions, that arise from several fields (Economics, Biology, Sociology, Philosophy, etc.). The plurality of issues that Ecology has to face led, during the Twentieth-century, to branch off in several different "ecologies". As a result, each one of these new approaches chose as its own field a more limited and specific portion of reality.

  18. Modelling the basic error tendencies of human operators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reason, J.

    1988-01-01

    The paper outlines the primary structural features of human cognition: a limited, serial workspace interacting with a parallel distributed knowledge base. It is argued that the essential computational features of human cognition - to be captured by an adequate operator model - reside in the mechanisms by which stored knowledge structures are selected and brought into play. Two such computational 'primitives' are identified: similarity-matching and frequency-gambling. These two retrieval heuristics, it is argued, shape both the overall character of human performance (i.e. its heavy reliance on pattern-matching) and its basic error tendencies ('strong-but-wrong' responses, confirmation, similarity and frequency biases, and cognitive 'lock-up'). The various features of human cognition are integrated with a dynamic operator model capable of being represented in software form. This computer model, when run repeatedly with a variety of problem configurations, should produce a distribution of behaviours which, in toto, simulate the general character of operator performance.

  19. Modelling the basic error tendencies of human operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reason, J.

    1988-01-01

    The paper outlines the primary structural features of human cognition: a limited, serial workspace interacting with a parallel distributed knowledge base. It is argued that the essential computational features of human cognition - to be captured by an adequate operator model - reside in the mechanisms by which stored knowledge structures are selected and brought into play. Two such computational 'primitives' are identified: similarity-matching and frequency-gambling. These two retrieval heuristics, it is argued, shape both the overall character of human performance (i.e. its heavy reliance on pattern-matching) and its basic error tendencies ('strong-but-wrong' responses, confirmation, similarity and frequency biases, and cognitive 'lock-up'). The various features of human cognition are integrated with a dynamic operator model capable of being represented in software form. This computer model, when run repeatedly with a variety of problem configurations, should produce a distribution of behaviours which, in total, simulate the general character of operator performance. (author)

  20. Modelling the basic error tendencies of human operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reason, James

    1988-01-01

    The paper outlines the primary structural features of human cognition: a limited, serial workspace interacting with a parallel distributed knowledge base. It is argued that the essential computational features of human cognition - to be captured by an adequate operator model - reside in the mechanisms by which stored knowledge structures are selected and brought into play. Two such computational 'primitives' are identified: similarity-matching and frequency-gambling. These two retrieval heuristics, it is argued, shape both the overall character of human performance (i.e. its heavy reliance on pattern-matching) and its basic error tendencies ('strong-but-wrong' responses, confirmation, similarity and frequency biases, and cognitive 'lock-up'). The various features of human cognition are integrated with a dynamic operator model capable of being represented in software form. This computer model, when run repeatedly with a variety of problem configurations, should produce a distribution of behaviours which, in toto, simulate the general character of operator performance. (author)

  1. Fundamental ecology is fundamental.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courchamp, Franck; Dunne, Jennifer A; Le Maho, Yvon; May, Robert M; Thébaud, Christophe; Hochberg, Michael E

    2015-01-01

    The primary reasons for conducting fundamental research are satisfying curiosity, acquiring knowledge, and achieving understanding. Here we develop why we believe it is essential to promote basic ecological research, despite increased impetus for ecologists to conduct and present their research in the light of potential applications. This includes the understanding of our environment, for intellectual, economical, social, and political reasons, and as a major source of innovation. We contend that we should focus less on short-term, objective-driven research and more on creativity and exploratory analyses, quantitatively estimate the benefits of fundamental research for society, and better explain the nature and importance of fundamental ecology to students, politicians, decision makers, and the general public. Our perspective and underlying arguments should also apply to evolutionary biology and to many of the other biological and physical sciences. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  2. The phase transition lines in pair approximation for the basic reinfection model SIRI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stollenwerk, Nico; Martins, Jose; Pinto, Alberto

    2007-01-01

    For a spatial stochastic epidemic model we investigate in the pair approximation scheme the differential equations for the moments. The basic reinfection model of susceptible-infected-recovered-reinfected or SIRI type is analysed, its phase transition lines calculated analytically in this pair approximation

  3. Mechanistic effect modeling for ecological risk assessment: where to go from here?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Volker; Martin, Benjamin T

    2013-07-01

    Mechanistic effect models (MEMs) consider the mechanisms of how chemicals affect individuals and ecological systems such as populations and communities. There is an increasing awareness that MEMs have high potential to make risk assessment of chemicals more ecologically relevant than current standard practice. Here we discuss what kinds of MEMs are needed to improve scientific and regulatory aspects of risk assessment. To make valid predictions for a wide range of environmental conditions, MEMs need to include a sufficient amount of emergence, for example, population dynamics emerging from what individual organisms do. We present 1 example where the life cycle of individuals is described using Dynamic Energy Budget theory. The resulting individual-based population model is thus parameterized at the individual level but correctly predicts multiple patterns at the population level. This is the case for both control and treated populations. We conclude that the state-of-the-art in mechanistic effect modeling has reached a level where MEMs are robust and predictive enough to be used in regulatory risk assessment. Mechanistic effect models will thus be used to advance the scientific basis of current standard practice and will, if their development follows Good Modeling Practice, be included in a standardized way in future regulatory risk assessments. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

  4. Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes-An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dislich, Claudia; Hettig, Elisabeth; Salecker, Jan; Heinonen, Johannes; Lay, Jann; Meyer, Katrin M; Wiegand, Kerstin; Tarigan, Suria

    2018-01-01

    Land-use changes have dramatically transformed tropical landscapes. We describe an ecological-economic land-use change model as an integrated, exploratory tool used to analyze how tropical land-use change affects ecological and socio-economic functions. The model analysis seeks to determine what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. More specifically, (1) how do specific ecosystem functions, such as carbon storage, and economic functions, such as household consumption, relate to each other? (2) How do external factors, such as the output prices of crops, affect these relationships? (3) How do these relationships change when production inefficiency differs between smallholder farmers and learning is incorporated? We initialize the ecological-economic model with artificially generated land-use maps parameterized to our study region. The economic sub-model simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides on land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological sub-model includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above-ground and below-ground vegetation. We demonstrate model capabilities with results on household consumption and carbon sequestration from different output price and farming efficiency scenarios. The overall results reveal complex interactions between the economic and ecological spheres. For instance, model scenarios with heterogeneous crop-specific household productivity reveal a comparatively high inertia of land-use change. Our model analysis even shows such an increased temporal stability in landscape composition and carbon stocks of the agricultural area under dynamic price trends. These findings underline the utility of ecological-economic models, such as ours, to act as

  5. Ecological Footprint in relation to Climate Change Strategy in Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belčáková, Ingrid; Diviaková, Andrea; Belaňová, Eliška

    2017-10-01

    Ecological footprint determines how much natural resources are consumed by an individual, city, region, state or all inhabitants of our planet in order to ensure their requirements and needs. It includes all activities, from food consumption, housing, transport to waste produced and allows us to compare particular activities and their impacts on the environment and natural resources. Ecological footprint is important issue for making sustainable development concept more popular using simplifications, which provide the public with basic information on situation on our planet. Today we know calculations of global (worldwide), national and local ecological footprints. During our research in cities, we were concentrated on calculation of city’s ecological footprint. The article tries to outline theoretical and assumptions and practical results of climate change consequences in cities of Bratislava and Nitra (Slovakia), to describe potential of mitigating adverse impacts of climate change and to provide information for general and professional public on theoretical assumptions in calculating ecological footprint. The intention is to present innovation of ecological footprint calculation, taking into consideration ecological stability of a city (with a specific focus on micro-climate functions of green areas). Present possibilities to reduce ecological footprint are presented.

  6. Information Assurance Cyber Ecology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jorgensen, Jane

    2003-01-01

    .... The goals of the Cyber Ecology project were to: (1) enable and demonstrate the discovery of noel IA technologies for the detection and mitigation of damage due to cyber attack through the application of ecological models, (2...

  7. Delineating ecological boundaries of Hanuman langur species complex in peninsular India using MaxEnt modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nag, Chetan; Chetan, Nag; Karanth, K Praveen; Praveen, Karanth K; Gururaja, Kotambylu Vasudeva; Vasudeva, Gururaja Kotambylu

    2014-01-01

    Hanuman langur is one of the widely distributed and extensively studied non-human diurnal primates in India. Until recently it was believed to be a single species - Semnopithecus entellus. Recent molecular and morphological studies suggest that the Hanuman langurs consists of at least three species S. entellus, S. hypoleucos and S. priam. Furthermore, morphological studies suggested that both S. hypoleucos and S. priam have at least three subspecies in each. We explored the use of ecological niche modeling (ENM) to confirm the validity of these seven taxa and an additional taxon S. johnii belonging to the same genus. MaxEnt modeling tool was used with 19 bioclimatic, 12 vegetation and 6 hydrological environmental layers. We reduced total environmental variables to 14 layers after testing for collinearity and an independent test for model prediction was done using ENMTools. A total of 196 non-overlapping data points from primary and secondary sources were used as inputs for ENM. Results showed eight distinct ecological boundaries, corroborating the eight taxa mentioned above thereby confirming validity of these eight taxa. The study, for the first time provided ecological variables that determined the ecological requirements and distribution of members of the Hanuman langur species complex in the Indian peninsula.

  8. Potential application of population models in the European ecological risk assessment of chemicals. II. Review of models and their potential to address environmental protection aims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galic, Nika; Hommen, Udo; Baveco, J M Hans; van den Brink, Paul J

    2010-07-01

    Whereas current chemical risk assessment (RA) schemes within the European Union (EU) focus mainly on toxicity and bioaccumulation of chemicals in individual organisms, most protection goals aim at preserving populations of nontarget organisms rather than individuals. Ecological models are tools rarely recommended in official technical documents on RA of chemicals, but are widely used by researchers to assess risks to populations, communities and ecosystems. Their great advantage is the relatively straightforward integration of the sensitivity of species to chemicals, the mode of action and fate in the environment of toxicants, life-history traits of the species of concern, and landscape features. To promote the usage of ecological models in regulatory risk assessment, this study tries to establish whether existing, published ecological modeling studies have addressed or have the potential to address the protection aims and requirements of the chemical directives of the EU. We reviewed 148 publications, and evaluated and analyzed them in a database according to defined criteria. Published models were also classified in terms of 5 areas where their application would be most useful for chemical RA. All potential application areas are well represented in the published literature. Most models were developed to estimate population-level responses on the basis of individual effects, followed by recovery process assessment, both in individuals and at the level of metapopulations. We provide case studies for each of the proposed areas of ecological model application. The lack of clarity about protection goals in legislative documents made it impossible to establish a direct link between modeling studies and protection goals. Because most of the models reviewed here were not developed for regulatory risk assessment, there is great potential and a variety of ecological models in the published literature. (c) 2010 SETAC.

  9. Ecosystem management via interacting models of political and ecological processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haas, T. C.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The decision to implement environmental protection options is a political one. Political realities may cause a country to not heed the most persuasive scientific analysis of an ecosystem's future health. A predictive understanding of the political processes that result in ecosystem management decisions may help guide ecosystem management policymaking. To this end, this article develops a stochastic, temporal model of how political processes influence and are influenced by ecosystem processes. This model is realized in a system of interacting influence diagrams that model the decision making of a country's political bodies. These decisions interact with a model of the ecosystem enclosed by the country. As an example, a model for Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus management in Kenya is constructed and fitted to decision and ecological data.

  10. 'Ecological value added' in an integrated ecosystem-economy model. An indicator for sustainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kratena, Kurt

    2004-01-01

    This paper sets up an input-output system of the relevant ecosystem flows that determine the carbon cycle in the global ecosystem. Introducing energy as the value added component in the ecosystem allows to calculate ecosystem prices expressed in 'energy values'. Linking the ecosystem with the economy in an integrated input-output model then allows to calculate prices of economic activities and of ecosystem activities. In analogy to the 'Ecological Footprint', where productive land is needed to absorb anthropogenic emissions, in this integrated input-output model additional carbon sinks are introduced for emission absorption. These carbon sinks need solar energy input, i.e. 'ecological value added'. Emission absorption as well as GDP therefore become activities valued in the numeraire of the integrated system, i.e.'energy values'. From that sustainability indicators can be derived

  11. The acoustic ecology of the First-Person Shooter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grimshaw, Mark Nicholas

    2007-01-01

    This thesis contributes to the field of Game Studies by presenting the hypothesis that the player(s) and soundscape(s) in the first-person shooter (FPS) game, and the relationships between them, may be construed as an acoustic ecology. It explores the idea that the single-player FPS game acoustic...... ecology has the basic components of player and soundscape and that the relationships between these two lead to the creation and perception of a variety of spaces within the game world constituting a significant contributing factor to player immersion in that world. Additionally, in a multiplayer FPS game...

  12. COMPARING THE UTILITY OF MULTIMEDIA MODELS FOR HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL EXPOSURE ANALYSIS: TWO CASES

    Science.gov (United States)

    A number of models are available for exposure assessment; however, few are used as tools for both human and ecosystem risks. This discussion will consider two modeling frameworks that have recently been used to support human and ecological decision making. The study will compare ...

  13. Modelling dendritic ecological networks in space: anintegrated network perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Erin E.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Isaak, Dan J.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Jordon, Chris E.; McNyset, Kristina; Monestiez, Pascal; Ruesch, Aaron S.; Sengupta, Aritra; Som, Nicholas; Steel, E. Ashley; Theobald, David M.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Wenger, Seth J.

    2013-01-01

    Dendritic ecological networks (DENs) are a unique form of ecological networks that exhibit a dendritic network topology (e.g. stream and cave networks or plant architecture). DENs have a dual spatial representation; as points within the network and as points in geographical space. Consequently, some analytical methods used to quantify relationships in other types of ecological networks, or in 2-D space, may be inadequate for studying the influence of structure and connectivity on ecological processes within DENs. We propose a conceptual taxonomy of network analysis methods that account for DEN characteristics to varying degrees and provide a synthesis of the different approaches within

  14. [Analysis on sustainable development of marine economy in Jiangsu Province based on marine ecological footprint correction model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shan; Wang, Yu-ting

    2011-03-01

    Based on the theories and methods of ecological footprint, the concept of marine ecological footprint was proposed. According to the characteristics of marine environment in Jiangsu Province, five sub-models of marine ecological footprints, including fishery, transporation, marine engineering construction, marine energy, and tidal flat, were constructed. The equilibrium factors of the five marine types were determined by using improved entropy method, and the marine footprints and capacities in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2008 were calculated and analyzed. In 2000-2008, the marine ecology footprint per capita in Jiangsu Province increased nearly seven times, from 36.90 hm2 to 252.94 hm2, and the ecological capacity per capita grew steadily, from 105.01 hm2 to 185.49 hm2. In 2000, the marine environment in the Province was in a state of ecological surplus, and the marine economy was in a weak sustainable development state. Since 2004, the marine ecological environment deteriorated sharply, with ecological deficit up to 109660.5 hm2, and the sustainability of marine economy declined. The high ecological footprint of fishery was the main reason for the ecological deficit. Tidal flat was the important reserve resource for the sustainable development of marine economy in Jiangsu Province.

  15. Development Model of Basic Technique Skills Training Shot-Put Obrien Style Based Biomechanics Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    danang rohmat hidayanto

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The background of this research is the unavailability of learning model of basic technique technique of O'Brien style force that integrated in skill program based on biomechanics study which is used as a reference to build the basic technique skill of the O'Brien style force among students. The purpose of this study is to develop a model of basic-style technique of rejecting the O'Brien-style shot put based on biomechanical studies for beginner levels, including basic prefix technique, glide, final stage, repulsion, further motion and repulsion performance of O'Brien style, all of which arranged in a medium that is easily accessible whenever, by anyone and anywhere, especially in SMK Negeri 1 Kalijambe Sragen . The research method used is "Reasearch and Developement" approach. "Preliminary studies show that 43.0% of respondents considered that the O'Brien style was very important to be developed with a model of skill-based exercise based on biomechanics, as many as 40.0% ressponden stated that it is important to be developed with biomechanics based learning media. Therefore, it is deemed necessary to develop the learning media of the O'Brien style-based training skills based on biomechanical studies. Development of media starts from the design of the storyboard and script form that will be used as media. The design of this model is called the draft model. Draft models that have been prepared are reviewed by the multimedia expert and the O'Brien style expert to get the product's validity. A total of 78.24% of experts declare a viable product with some input. In small groups with n = 6, earned value 72.2% was obtained or valid enough to be tested in large groups. In the large group test with n = 12,values obtained 70.83% or quite feasible to be tested in the field. In the field test, experimental group was prepared with treatment according to media and control group with free treatment. From result of counting of significance test can be

  16. Divergence is not enough: the use of ecological niche models for the validation of taxon boundaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagnino, D; Minuto, L; Casazza, G

    2017-11-01

    Delimiting taxon boundaries is crucial for any evolutionary research and conservation regulation. In order to avoid mistaken description of species, the approach of integrative taxonomy recommends considering multidisciplinary lines of evidence, including ecology. Unfortunately, ecological data are often difficult to quantify objectively. Here we test and discuss the potential use of ecological niche models for validating taxon boundaries, using three pairs of closely related plant taxa endemic to the south-western Alps as a case study. We also discuss the application of ecological niche models for species delimitation and the implementation of different approaches. Niche overlap, niche equivalency and niche similarity were assessed both in multidimensional environmental space and in geographic space to look for differences in the niche of three pairs of closely related plant taxa. We detected a high degree of niche differentiation between taxa although this result seems not due to differences in habitat selection. The different statistical tests gave contrasting outcomes between environmental and geographic spaces. According to our results, niche divergence does not seem to support taxon boundaries at species level, but may have had important consequences for local adaptation and in generating phenotypic diversity at intraspecific level. Environmental space analysis should be preferred to geographic space as it provides more clear results. Even if the different analyses widely disagree in their conclusions about taxon boundaries, our study suggests that ecological niche models may help taxonomists to reach a decision. © 2017 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  17. THE METHOD OF MULTIPLE SPATIAL PLANNING BASIC MAP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Zhang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The “Provincial Space Plan Pilot Program” issued in December 2016 pointed out that the existing space management and control information management platforms of various departments were integrated, and a spatial planning information management platform was established to integrate basic data, target indicators, space coordinates, and technical specifications. The planning and preparation will provide supportive decision support, digital monitoring and evaluation of the implementation of the plan, implementation of various types of investment projects and space management and control departments involved in military construction projects in parallel to approve and approve, and improve the efficiency of administrative approval. The space planning system should be set up to delimit the control limits for the development of production, life and ecological space, and the control of use is implemented. On the one hand, it is necessary to clarify the functional orientation between various kinds of planning space. On the other hand, it is necessary to achieve “multi-compliance” of various space planning. Multiple spatial planning intergration need unified and standard basic map(geographic database and technical specificaton to division of urban, agricultural, ecological three types of space and provide technical support for the refinement of the space control zoning for the relevant planning. The article analysis the main space datum, the land use classification standards, base map planning, planning basic platform main technical problems. Based on the geographic conditions, the results of the census preparation of spatial planning map, and Heilongjiang, Hainan many rules combined with a pilot application.

  18. On the missing link in ecology: improving communication between modellers and experimentalists

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heuschele, Jan; Ekvall, Mikael T.; Mariani, Patrizio

    2017-01-01

    limit the usage of empirical data and thereby the impact of ecological studies. We discuss ways to advance collaboration; how to improve communication and the design of experiments; and the sharing of data. We hope to start a much-needed conversation between modellers and experimentalists, to further...

  19. Scale of association: hierarchical linear models and the measurement of ecological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sean M. McMahon; Jeffrey M. Diez

    2007-01-01

    A fundamental challenge to understanding patterns in ecological systems lies in employing methods that can analyse, test and draw inference from measured associations between variables across scales. Hierarchical linear models (HLM) use advanced estimation algorithms to measure regression relationships and variance-covariance parameters in hierarchically structured...

  20. Ecological connectivity networks in rapidly expanding cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amal Najihah M. Nor

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Urban expansion increases fragmentation of the landscape. In effect, fragmentation decreases connectivity, causes green space loss and impacts upon the ecology and function of green space. Restoration of the functionality of green space often requires restoring the ecological connectivity of this green space within the city matrix. However, identifying ecological corridors that integrate different structural and functional connectivity of green space remains vague. Assessing connectivity for developing an ecological network by using efficient models is essential to improve these networks under rapid urban expansion. This paper presents a novel methodological approach to assess and model connectivity for the Eurasian tree sparrow (Passer montanus and Yellow-vented bulbul (Pycnonotus goiavier in three cities (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; Jakarta, Indonesia and Metro Manila, Philippines. The approach identifies potential priority corridors for ecological connectivity networks. The study combined circuit models, connectivity analysis and least-cost models to identify potential corridors by integrating structure and function of green space patches to provide reliable ecological connectivity network models in the cities. Relevant parameters such as landscape resistance and green space structure (vegetation density, patch size and patch distance were derived from an expert and literature-based approach based on the preference of bird behaviour. The integrated models allowed the assessment of connectivity for both species using different measures of green space structure revealing the potential corridors and least-cost pathways for both bird species at the patch sites. The implementation of improvements to the identified corridors could increase the connectivity of green space. This study provides examples of how combining models can contribute to the improvement of ecological networks in rapidly expanding cities and demonstrates the usefulness of such

  1. Ethics of Plant Breeding: The IFOAM Basic Principles as a Guide for the Evolution of Organic Plant Breeding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lammerts Van Bueren, E.

    2010-01-01

    The basic values of organic agriculture is laid down in the IFOAM four basic principles: the principle of health, the principle of ecology, the principle of fairness and the principle of care. These principles and the consequences and challenges for the further development of organic plant breeding

  2. Modelling non-Euclidean movement and landscape connectivity in highly structured ecological networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, Christopher; Fuller, Angela K.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Movement is influenced by landscape structure, configuration and geometry, but measuring distance as perceived by animals poses technical and logistical challenges. Instead, movement is typically measured using Euclidean distance, irrespective of location or landscape structure, or is based on arbitrary cost surfaces. A recently proposed extension of spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models resolves this issue using spatial encounter histories of individuals to calculate least-cost paths (ecological distance: Ecology, 94, 2013, 287) thereby relaxing the Euclidean assumption. We evaluate the consequences of not accounting for movement heterogeneity when estimating abundance in highly structured landscapes, and demonstrate the value of this approach for estimating biologically realistic space-use patterns and landscape connectivity.

  3. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Ecological Risk Based on Cloud Model: Taking Chengchao Iron Mine as Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Jinghua; Chen, Yong; Xiao, Xiao; Yong, Gan; Huang, Ranran; Miao, Zuohua

    2018-01-01

    Aimed at the fuzziness and randomness during the evaluation process, this paper constructed a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on cloud model. The evaluation index system was established based on the inherent risk, present level and control situation, which had been proved to be able to convey the main contradictions of ecological risk in mine on the macro level, and be advantageous for comparison among mines. The comment sets and membership functions improved by cloud model could reflect the uniformity of ambiguity and randomness effectively. In addition, the concept of fuzzy entropy was introduced to further characterize the fuzziness of assessments results and the complexities of ecological problems in target mine. A practical example in Chengchao Iron Mine evidenced that, the assessments results can reflect actual situations appropriately and provide a new theoretic guidance for comprehensive ecological risk evaluation of underground iron mine.

  4. Assessment of the Coordination Ability of Sustainable Social-Ecological Systems Development Based on a Set Pair Analysis: A Case Study in Yanchi County, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya Wang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Sandy desertification is one of the most severe ecological problems in the world. Essentially, it is land degradation caused by discordance in the Social-Ecological Systems (SES. The ability to coordinate SES is a principal characteristic of regional sustainable development and a key factor in desertification control. This paper directly and comprehensively evaluates the ability to coordinate SES in the desertification reversal process. Assessment indicators and standards for SES have been established using statistical data and materials from government agencies. We applied a coordinated development model based on Identical-Discrepancy-Contrary (IDC situational ranking of a Set Pair Analysis (SPA to analyze the change in Yanchi County’s coordination ability since it implemented the grazing prohibition policy. The results indicated that Yanchi County was basically in the secondary grade of the national sustainable development level, and the subsystems’ development trend was relatively stable. Coordinate ability increased from 0.686 in 2003 to 0.957 in 2014 and experienced “weak coordination to basic coordination to high coordination” development processes. We concluded that drought, the grazing prohibition dilemma and the ecological footprint were key factors impeding the coordination of SES development in this area. These findings should provide information about desertification control and ecological policy implementation to guarantee sustainable rehabilitation.

  5. The Effectiveness of Learning Model of Basic Education with Character-Based at Universitas Muslim Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosmiati, Rosmiati; Mahmud, Alimuddin; Talib, Syamsul B.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the effectiveness of the basic education learning model with character-based through learning in the Universitas Muslim Indonesia. In addition, the research specifically examines the character of discipline, curiosity and responsibility. The specific target is to produce a basic education learning model…

  6. An ecological response model for the Cache la Poudre River through Fort Collins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanahan, Jennifer; Baker, Daniel; Bledsoe, Brian P.; Poff, LeRoy; Merritt, David M.; Bestgen, Kevin R.; Auble, Gregor T.; Kondratieff, Boris C.; Stokes, John; Lorie, Mark; Sanderson, John

    2014-01-01

    The Poudre River Ecological Response Model (ERM) is a collaborative effort initiated by the City of Fort Collins and a team of nine river scientists to provide the City with a tool to improve its understanding of the past, present, and likely future conditions of the Cache la Poudre River ecosystem. The overall ecosystem condition is described through the measurement of key ecological indicators such as shape and character of the stream channel and banks, streamside plant communities and floodplain wetlands, aquatic vegetation and insects, and fishes, both coolwater trout and warmwater native species. The 13- mile-long study area of the Poudre River flows through Fort Collins, Colorado, and is located in an ecological transition zone between the upstream, cold-water, steep-gradient system in the Front Range of the Southern Rocky Mountains and the downstream, warm-water, low-gradient reach in the Colorado high plains.

  7. Simulation of socio-ecological impacts: Modeling a fishing village

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Philip C.

    1982-03-01

    The interrelationship of society and environment is addressed here through the study of a remote fishing village of 750 people. An interdisciplinary study evaluated demographic, economic, and social aspects of the community, and simulation modeling was used to integrate these societal characteristics with environmental factors. The population of the village had grown gradually until the 1960's, when a decline began. Out-migration correlated with declining fish harvests and with increased communications with urban centers. Fishing had provided the greatest economic opportunity, followed by logging. A survey was conducted to investigate the costs and revenues of village fishermen. Diversification characterized the local fleet, and analysis showed that rates of return on investment in the current year were equal between vessel types. The variable levels and rate parameters of the demographic, economic, and social components of the model were specified through static and time series data. Sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of uncertainty, and validation tests against known historical changes were also conducted. Forecast scenarios identified the development options under several levels of fish abundance and investment. The weight given to ecological versus economic resource management registered disproportionate effects due to the interaction between investment and migration rates and resource stochasticity. This finding argues against a “golden mean” rule for evaluating policy trade-offs and argues for the importance of using a dynamic, socio-ecological perspective in designing development policies for rural communities.

  8. Performance analysis of irreversible molten carbonate fuel cell – Braysson heat engine with ecological objective approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Açıkkalp, Emin

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • An irreversible MCFC - Braysson heat engine is considered. • Its performance is investigated with ecological approach. • A new ecological criteria are presented called as modified ecological function. • Result are obtained numerically and discussed. - Abstract: An irreversible hybrid molten carbonate fuel cell-Braysson heat engine is taken into account. Basic thermodynamics parameters including power output, efficiency and exergy destruction rate are considered. In addition ecological function and new criteria, which is based on ecological function, for heat engines called as modified ecological function is suggested. Optimum conditions for mentioned parameters above are determined. Numerical results are obtained and plotted. Finally, results are discussed.

  9. Modelling the ecological vulnerability to forest fires in mediterranean ecosystems using geographic information technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duguy, Beatriz; Alloza, José Antonio; Baeza, M Jaime; De la Riva, Juan; Echeverría, Maite; Ibarra, Paloma; Llovet, Juan; Cabello, Fernando Pérez; Rovira, Pere; Vallejo, Ramon V

    2012-12-01

    Forest fires represent a major driver of change at the ecosystem and landscape levels in the Mediterranean region. Environmental features and vegetation are key factors to estimate the ecological vulnerability to fire; defined as the degree to which an ecosystem is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of fire (provided a fire occurs). Given the predicted climatic changes for the region, it is urgent to validate spatially explicit tools for assessing this vulnerability in order to support the design of new fire prevention and restoration strategies. This work presents an innovative GIS-based modelling approach to evaluate the ecological vulnerability to fire of an ecosystem, considering its main components (soil and vegetation) and different time scales. The evaluation was structured in three stages: short-term (focussed on soil degradation risk), medium-term (focussed on changes in vegetation), and coupling of the short- and medium-term vulnerabilities. The model was implemented in two regions: Aragón (inland North-eastern Spain) and Valencia (eastern Spain). Maps of the ecological vulnerability to fire were produced at a regional scale. We partially validated the model in a study site combining two complementary approaches that focused on testing the adequacy of model's predictions in three ecosystems, all very common in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Spain: two shrublands and a pine forest. Both approaches were based on the comparison of model's predictions with values of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which is considered a good proxy for green biomass. Both methods showed that the model's performance is satisfactory when applied to the three selected vegetation types.

  10. From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rounsevell, M D A; Robinson, D T; Murray-Rust, D

    2012-01-19

    The ecosystem service concept has emphasized the role of people within socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this paper, we review and discuss alternative ways of representing people, their behaviour and decision-making processes in SES models using an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach. We also explore how ABM can be empirically grounded using information from social survey. The capacity for ABM to be generalized beyond case studies represents a crucial next step in modelling SESs, although this comes with considerable intellectual challenges. We propose the notion of human functional types, as an analogy of plant functional types, to support the expansion (scaling) of ABM to larger areas. The expansion of scope also implies the need to represent institutional agents in SES models in order to account for alternative governance structures and policy feedbacks. Further development in the coupling of human-environment systems would contribute considerably to better application and use of the ecosystem service concept.

  11. Federated Access Control in Heterogeneous Intercloud Environment: Basic Models and Architecture Patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demchenko, Y.; Ngo, C.; de Laat, C.; Lee, C.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents on-going research to define the basic models and architecture patterns for federated access control in heterogeneous (multi-provider) multi-cloud and inter-cloud environment. The proposed research contributes to the further definition of Intercloud Federation Framework (ICFF)

  12. Urban Optimum Population Size and Development Pattern Based on Ecological Footprint Model: Case of Zhoushan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan LU

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The agglomeration of population in the city can reflect the prosperity in the economy, society and culture. However, it has also brought a series of problems like environmental pollution, traffic congestion, housing shortage and jobs crisis. The results can be shown as the failure of urban comprehensive function, the decline of city benefits, and the contradiction between socioeconomic circumstance and ecosystem. Therefore, a reasonable population capacity, which is influenced by ecological resources, urban environment, geographical elements, social and economic factors, etc., is objectively needed. How to deal with the relationship between the utilization of natural capital and development of the city is extremely essential. This paper takes Zhoushan Island as an example, which is the fourth largest island off the coast of China. Firstly, the interactively influencing factors of urban optimal population are illustrated. And method is chosen to study the optimal population size. Secondly, based on the model of ecological footprint (EP, the paper calculates and analyzes the ecological footprint and ecological capacity of the Zhoushan Island, in order to explore the optimal population size of the city. Thirdly, analysis and evaluation of the resources and urban environment carrying capacity is made. Finally, the solution of the existing population problems and the suggestion for the future development pattern of the city are proposed in the urban eco-planning of Zhoushan Island. The main strategies can be summarized in two aspects: one is to reduce the ecological footprint, the other is to increase the ecological supply. The conclusion is that the current population of Zhoushan Island is far beyond the optimum population size calculated by the ecological footprint model. Therefore, sustainable development should be the guidance for urban planning in Zhoushan Island, and a low-carbon development pattern for the city is advocated.

  13. Ecological principles relevant to nuclear war

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hutchinson, T.C.; Cropper, W.P. Jr.; Grover, H.D.

    1985-01-01

    The ecological principles outlined are very basic ones; the authors anticipate a readership trained in a broad range of disciplines, including those unfamiliar with the academic discipline of ecology. The authors include substantial discussion on ecophysiology (i.e., the responses of organisms to their environment) because this is relevant to the new understanding of the potential climatic consequences of nuclear war. In particular, the physiological sensitivity of organisms to reduced levels of light and temperature are a key part of the analysis of the potential ecological effects and agricultural effects of nuclear war. Much of the ecological analysis has been organized around major biological units called biomes. The authors describe the biome concept and discuss some of the environmental-climatic factors that are believed to control biome distribution. Emphasis is given to plants because of their controlling influence on ecosystem functions through their role as primary producers. Future reports are needed to address more fully the potential effects on animals. Much more research needs to be done on both plant and animal responses to the types of perturbations possible for the aftermath of a nuclear war. Another important element for analysis of the potential ecological consequences of nuclear war concerns recovery processes. As the post-nuclear war environmental extremes ameliorate, ecological communities in devastated regions would begin to reorganize. It is not possible to predict the course of such a succession precisely, but some principles concerning post-perturbation replacement (such as seed banks and germination), relevant successional patterns, and organism strategies are discussed

  14. Basic and Advanced Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling With Applications in the Medical and Behavioral Sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Sik-Yum

    2012-01-01

    This book provides clear instructions to researchers on how to apply Structural Equation Models (SEMs) for analyzing the inter relationships between observed and latent variables. Basic and Advanced Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling introduces basic and advanced SEMs for analyzing various kinds of complex data, such as ordered and unordered categorical data, multilevel data, mixture data, longitudinal data, highly non-normal data, as well as some of their combinations. In addition, Bayesian semiparametric SEMs to capture the true distribution of explanatory latent variables are introduce

  15. Interpretation of the results of statistical measurements. [search for basic probability model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olshevskiy, V. V.

    1973-01-01

    For random processes, the calculated probability characteristic, and the measured statistical estimate are used in a quality functional, which defines the difference between the two functions. Based on the assumption that the statistical measurement procedure is organized so that the parameters for a selected model are optimized, it is shown that the interpretation of experimental research is a search for a basic probability model.

  16. Economic and ecological optimal strategies of management of the system of regional solid waste disposal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samoylik Marina S.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article develops an economic and ecological model of optimal management of the system of solid waste disposal at the regional level, identifies its target functions and forms optimisation scenarios of management of this sphere with theoretically optimal parameters’ values. Based on the model of management of the sphere of solid waste disposal the article forms an algorithm of identification of optimal managerial strategies and mechanisms of their realisation, which allows solution of the set tasks of optimisation of development of the sphere of solid waste disposal at a given set of values and parameters of the state of the system for a specific type of life cycle of solid waste and different subjects of this sphere. The developed model has a number of feasible solutions and, consequently, offers selection of the best of them with consideration of target functions. The article conducts a SWOT analysis of the current state of solid waste disposal in the Poltava region and identifies a necessity of development of a relevant strategy on the basis of the developed economic and ecological model with consideration of optimisation of mutually opposite criteria: ecological risk for the population from the sphere of solid waste disposal and total expenditures for this sphere functioning. The article conducts modelling of this situation by basic (current situation and alternative scenarios and finds out that, at this stage, it is most expedient to build in the region four sorting lines and five regional solid waste grounds, while expenditures on this sphere are UAH 62.0 million per year, income from secondary raw material sales – UAH 71.2 per year and reduction of the ecological risk – UAH 13 million per year.

  17. Trends in ecological research during the last three decades--a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmel, Yohay; Kent, Rafi; Bar-Massada, Avi; Blank, Lior; Liberzon, Jonathan; Nezer, Oded; Sapir, Gill; Federman, Roy

    2013-01-01

    It is thought that the science of ecology has experienced conceptual shifts in recent decades, chiefly from viewing nature as static and balanced to a conception of constantly changing, unpredictable, complex ecosystems. Here, we ask if these changes are reflected in actual ecological research over the last 30 years. We surveyed 750 articles from the entire pool of ecological literature and 750 articles from eight leading journals. Each article was characterized according to its type, ecological domain, and applicability, and major topics. We found that, in contrast to its common image, ecology is still mostly a study of single species (70% of the studies); while ecosystem and community studies together comprise only a quarter of ecological research. Ecological science is somewhat conservative in its topics of research (about a third of all topics changed significantly through time), as well as in its basic methodologies and approaches. However, the growing proportion of problem-solving studies (from 9% in the 1980s to 20% in the 2000 s) may represent a major transition in ecological science in the long run.

  18. Basic data, computer codes and integral experiments: The tools for modelling in nuclear technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sartori, E.

    2001-01-01

    When studying applications in nuclear technology we need to understand and be able to predict the behavior of systems manufactured by human enterprise. First, the underlying basic physical and chemical phenomena need to be understood. We have then to predict the results from the interplay of the large number of the different basic events: i.e. the macroscopic effects. In order to be able to build confidence in our modelling capability, we need then to compare these results against measurements carried out on such systems. The different levels of modelling require the solution of different types of equations using different type of parameters. The tools required for carrying out a complete validated analysis are: - The basic nuclear or chemical data; - The computer codes, and; - The integral experiments. This article describes the role each component plays in a computational scheme designed for modelling purposes. It describes also which tools have been developed and are internationally available. The role of the OECD/NEA Data Bank, the Radiation Shielding Information Computational Center (RSICC), and the IAEA Nuclear Data Section are playing in making these elements available to the community of scientists and engineers is described. (author)

  19. Ecologically Sound Procedural Generation of Natural Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benny Onrust

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Current techniques for the creation and exploration of virtual worlds are largely unable to generate sound natural environments from ecological data and to provide interactive web-based visualizations of such detailed environments. We tackle this challenge and propose a novel framework that (i explores the advantages of landscape maps and ecological statistical data, translating them to an ecologically sound plant distribution, and (ii creates a visually convincing 3D representation of the natural environment suitable for its interactive visualization over the web. Our vegetation model improves techniques from procedural ecosystem generation and neutral landscape modeling. It is able to generate diverse ecological sound plant distributions directly from landscape maps with statistical ecological data. Our visualization model integrates existing level of detail and illumination techniques to achieve interactive frame rates and improve realism. We validated with ecology experts the outcome of our framework using two case studies and concluded that it provides convincing interactive visualizations of large natural environments.

  20. Using remotely sensed vegetation indices to model ecological pasture conditions in Kara-Unkur watershed, Kyrgyzstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masselink, Loes; Baartman, Jantiene; Verbesselt, Jan; Borchardt, Peter

    2017-04-01

    Kyrgyzstan has a long history of nomadic lifestyle in which pastures play an important role. However, currently the pastures are subject to severe grazing-induced degradation. Deteriorating levels of biomass, palatability and biodiversity reduce the pastures' productivity. To counter this and introduce sustainable pasture management, up-to-date information regarding the ecological conditions of the pastures is essential. This research aimed to investigate the potential of a remote sensing-based methodology to detect changing ecological pasture conditions in the Kara-Unkur watershed, Kyrgyzstan. The relations between Vegetation Indices (VIs) from Landsat ETM+ images and biomass, palatability and species richness field data were investigated. Both simple and multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses, including terrain attributes, were applied. Subsequently, trends of these three pasture conditions were mapped using time series analysis. The results show that biomass is most accurately estimated by a model including the Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI) and a slope factor (R2 = 0.65, F = 0.0006). Regarding palatability, a model including the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Northness Index, Near Infrared (NIR) and Red band was most accurate (R2 = 0.61, F = 0.0160). Species richness was most accurately estimated by a model including Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Eastness Index and estimated biomass (R2 = 0.81, F = 0.0028). Subsequent trend analyses of all three estimated ecological pasture conditions presented very similar trend patterns. Despite the need for a more robust validation, this study confirms the high potential of a remote sensing based methodology to detect changing ecological pasture conditions.

  1. Interim balance: Ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kogon, E.; Jungk, R.

    1981-01-01

    Subjects: The ecology problem - world wide. Sectoral balances: The examples of energy, transportation, chemistry, agriculture and food industry, water supply. Destruction of nature and human discord. Conservatives in our political parties and their views on environmental protection. Alliance between reds and 'greens', integration between reds and greens. The Rhine initiative. Lead respects no borders, experiences of citizens' action groups in Lothringia and the Saar district. International airport Munich-II/comments by a protestant. 'Give priority to life'/A hearing on environmental protection. 4:96 - 'greens' in the Bremen Senate. Policy in a hard-hearing world/psychology of citizens' action groups. Critical ecological research and scientific establishment. Full productivity and ecology. The deluge to follow/Hints on how to build an ark. Symbiosis is more than coexistence/Ecologists' social theory. Throwing in two hundred elementary particles/on the way to an ecological concept of science. Scientific journals. Alternative literature. Teaching model for a teaching subject 'ecology'. (orig.) [de

  2. Predictive systems ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

    2013-11-22

    Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

  3. Land-use history and contemporary management inform an ecological reference model for longleaf pine woodland understory plant communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lars A. Brudvig; John L. Orrock; Ellen I. Damschen; Cathy D. Collins; Philip G. Hahn; W. Brett Mattingly; Joseph W. Veldman; Joan L. Walker

    2014-01-01

    Ecological restoration is frequently guided by reference conditions describing a successfully restored ecosystem; however, the causes and magnitude of ecosystem degradation vary, making simple knowledge of reference conditions insufficient for prioritizing and guiding restoration. Ecological reference models provide further guidance by quantifying reference conditions...

  4. A proposal of ecologic taxes based on thermo-economic performance of heat engine models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barranco-Jimenez, M. A.; Ramos-Gayosso, I.; Rosales, M. A.; Angulo-Brown, F.

    2009-01-01

    Within the context of Finite-Time Thermodynamics (FTT) a simplified thermal power plant model (the so-called Novikov engine) is analyzed under economical criteria by means of the concepts of profit function and the costs involved in the performance of the power plant. In this study, two different heat transfer laws are used, the so called Newton's law of cooling and the Dulong-Petit's law of cooling. Two FTT optimization criteria for the performance analysis are used: the maximum power regime (MP) and the so-called ecological criterion. This last criterion leads the engine model towards a mode of performance that appreciably diminishes the engine's wasted energy. In this work, it is shown that the energy-unit price produced under maximum power conditions is cheaper than that produced under maximum ecological (ME) conditions. This was accomplished by using a typical definition of profits function stemming from economics. The MP-regime produces considerably more wasted energy toward the environment, thus the MP energy-unit price is subsidized by nature. Due to this fact, an ecological tax is proposed, which could be a certain function of the price difference between the MP and ME modes of power production. (author)

  5. Ecological stability of landscape - ecological infrastructure - ecological management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The Field Workshop 'Ecological Stability of Landscape - Ecological Infrastructure - Ecological Management' was held within a State Environmental Programme financed by the Federal Committee for the Environment. The objectives of the workshop were to present Czech and Slovak approaches to the ecological stability of the landscape by means of examples of some case studies in the field, and to exchange ideas, theoretical knowledge and practical experience on implementing the concept of ecological infrastructure in landscape management. Out of 19 papers contained in the proceedings, 3 items were inputted to the INIS system. (Z.S.)

  6. Temporal ecology in the Anthropocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolkovich, E M; Cook, B I; McLauchlan, K K; Davies, T J

    2014-11-01

    Two fundamental axes - space and time - shape ecological systems. Over the last 30 years spatial ecology has developed as an integrative, multidisciplinary science that has improved our understanding of the ecological consequences of habitat fragmentation and loss. We argue that accelerating climate change - the effective manipulation of time by humans - has generated a current need to build an equivalent framework for temporal ecology. Climate change has at once pressed ecologists to understand and predict ecological dynamics in non-stationary environments, while also challenged fundamental assumptions of many concepts, models and approaches. However, similarities between space and time, especially related issues of scaling, provide an outline for improving ecological models and forecasting of temporal dynamics, while the unique attributes of time, particularly its emphasis on events and its singular direction, highlight where new approaches are needed. We emphasise how a renewed, interdisciplinary focus on time would coalesce related concepts, help develop new theories and methods and guide further data collection. The next challenge will be to unite predictive frameworks from spatial and temporal ecology to build robust forecasts of when and where environmental change will pose the largest threats to species and ecosystems, as well as identifying the best opportunities for conservation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  7. Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    B.G. Marcot; J.D. Steventon; G.D. Sutherland; R.K. McCann

    2006-01-01

    We provide practical guidelines for developing, testing, and revising Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). Primary steps in this process include creating influence diagrams of the hypothesized "causal web" of key factors affecting a species or ecological outcome of interest; developing a first, alpha-level BBN model from the influence diagram; revising the model...

  8. A Critical Reading of Ecocentrism and Its Meta-Scientific Use of Ecology: Instrumental versus Emancipatory Approaches in Environmental Education and Ecology Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hovardas, Tasos

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the paper is to make a critical reading of ecocentrism and its meta-scientific use of ecology. First, basic assumptions of ecocentrism will be examined, which involve nature's intrinsic value, postmodern and modern positions in ecocentrism, and the subject-object dichotomy under the lenses of ecocentrism. Then, we will discuss…

  9. Understanding the Institutional Dimension of Inter-Agency Collaboration: The Basic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    between the sociological and economic traditions in institutional analysis, led by some organizational sociologists and micro- economists . Their purpose...Spies and Spies in Canada: Undercover at Home & Abroad (2005) Edmonton, AB: Folklore Publishing. Bourdieu, P. Distinction: A Social Critique of the ...Understanding the institutional dimension of inter-agency collaboration The Basic Model Eric Ouellet Royal Military College of

  10. Ecological study of the effects of nuclear power plants on benthic macroplant microcosms in subtropical and tropical estuaries. Annual progress report, 1974--1975

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorhaug, A.

    1975-05-01

    Progress is reported on the following research projects: the dynamic ecology of Thalassia and studies of the Thalassia community; basic ecology of Thalassia growth and reproduction; red macroalgal ecology; green macroalgal ecology; transplantation of Thalassia; succession in a previously damaged Thalassia community at Turkey Point; and thermal ecology of the Thalassia community of Card Sound and Turkey Point. (U.S.)

  11. Modelled basic parameters for semi-industrial irradiation plant design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mangussi, J.

    2009-01-01

    The basic parameters of an irradiation plant design are the total activity, the product uniformity ratio and the efficiency process. The target density, the minimum dose required and the throughput depends on the use to which the irradiator will be put at. In this work, a model for calculating the specific dose rate at several depths in an infinite homogeneous medium produced by a slab source irradiator is presented. The product minimum dose rate for a set of target thickness is obtained. The design method steps are detailed and an illustrative example is presented. (author)

  12. Hydrodynamic and Ecological Assessment of Nearshore Restoration: A Modeling Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Sobocinski, Kathryn L.; Heatwole, Danelle W.; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Thom, Ronald M.; Fuller, Roger

    2010-01-01

    Along the Pacific Northwest coast, much of the estuarine habitat has been diked over the last century for agricultural land use, residential and commercial development, and transportation corridors. As a result, many of the ecological processes and functions have been disrupted. To protect coastal habitats that are vital to aquatic species, many restoration projects are currently underway to restore the estuarine and coastal ecosystems through dike breaches, setbacks, and removals. Information on physical processes and hydrodynamic conditions are critical for the assessment of the success of restoration actions. Restoration of a 160- acre property at the mouth of the Stillaguamish River in Puget Sound has been proposed. The goal is to restore native tidal habitats and estuary-scale ecological processes by removing the dike. In this study, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was developed for the Stillaguamish River estuary to simulate estuarine processes. The model was calibrated to observed tide, current, and salinity data for existing conditions and applied to simulate the hydrodynamic responses to two restoration alternatives. Responses were evaluated at the scale of the restoration footprint. Model data was combined with biophysical data to predict habitat responses at the site. Results showed that the proposed dike removal would result in desired tidal flushing and conditions that would support four habitat types on the restoration footprint. At the estuary scale, restoration would substantially increase the proportion of area flushed with freshwater (< 5 ppt) at flood tide. Potential implications of predicted changes in salinity and flow dynamics are discussed relative to the distribution of tidal marsh habitat.

  13. Basic concepts and formulations for isotope geochemical modelling of groundwater systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalin, R.M.

    1996-01-01

    This chapter describes the basic chemical principles and methodologies for geochemical models and their use in the field of isotope hydrology. Examples of calculation procedures are given on actual field data. Summary information on available PC software for geochemical modeling is included. The specific software, NETPATH, which can be used for chemical speciation, mass balance and isotope balance along a flow path in groundwater systems, is discussed at some length with an illustrative example of its application to field data. (author). Refs, 14 figs, 15 tabs

  14. Basic concepts and formulations for isotope geochemical modelling of groundwater systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalin, R M [The Queen` s University, Belfast, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom). Dept. of Civil Engineering

    1996-10-01

    This chapter describes the basic chemical principles and methodologies for geochemical models and their use in the field of isotope hydrology. Examples of calculation procedures are given on actual field data. Summary information on available PC software for geochemical modeling is included. The specific software, NETPATH, which can be used for chemical speciation, mass balance and isotope balance along a flow path in groundwater systems, is discussed at some length with an illustrative example of its application to field data. (author). Refs, 14 figs, 15 tabs.

  15. Interval Optimization Model Considering Terrestrial Ecological Impacts for Water Rights Transfer from Agriculture to Industry in Ningxia, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Lian; Li, Chunhui; Cai, Yanpeng; Wang, Xuan

    2017-06-14

    In this study, an interval optimization model is developed to maximize the benefits of a water rights transfer system that comprises industry and agriculture sectors in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in China. The model is subjected to a number of constraints including water saving potential from agriculture and ecological groundwater levels. Ecological groundwater levels serve as performance indicators of terrestrial ecology. The interval method is applied to present the uncertainty of parameters in the model. Two scenarios regarding dual industrial development targets (planned and unplanned ones) are used to investigate the difference in potential benefits of water rights transfer. Runoff of the Yellow River as the source of water rights fluctuates significantly in different years. Thus, compensation fees for agriculture are calculated to reflect the influence of differences in the runoff. Results show that there are more available water rights to transfer for industrial development. The benefits are considerable but unbalanced between buyers and sellers. The government should establish a water market that is freer and promote the interest of agriculture and farmers. Though there has been some success of water rights transfer, the ecological impacts and the relationship between sellers and buyers require additional studies.

  16. Ecological connectivity networks in rapidly expanding cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nor, Amal Najihah M; Corstanje, Ron; Harris, Jim A; Grafius, Darren R; Siriwardena, Gavin M

    2017-06-01

    Urban expansion increases fragmentation of the landscape. In effect, fragmentation decreases connectivity, causes green space loss and impacts upon the ecology and function of green space. Restoration of the functionality of green space often requires restoring the ecological connectivity of this green space within the city matrix. However, identifying ecological corridors that integrate different structural and functional connectivity of green space remains vague. Assessing connectivity for developing an ecological network by using efficient models is essential to improve these networks under rapid urban expansion. This paper presents a novel methodological approach to assess and model connectivity for the Eurasian tree sparrow ( Passer montanus ) and Yellow-vented bulbul ( Pycnonotus goiavier ) in three cities (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; Jakarta, Indonesia and Metro Manila, Philippines). The approach identifies potential priority corridors for ecological connectivity networks. The study combined circuit models, connectivity analysis and least-cost models to identify potential corridors by integrating structure and function of green space patches to provide reliable ecological connectivity network models in the cities. Relevant parameters such as landscape resistance and green space structure (vegetation density, patch size and patch distance) were derived from an expert and literature-based approach based on the preference of bird behaviour. The integrated models allowed the assessment of connectivity for both species using different measures of green space structure revealing the potential corridors and least-cost pathways for both bird species at the patch sites. The implementation of improvements to the identified corridors could increase the connectivity of green space. This study provides examples of how combining models can contribute to the improvement of ecological networks in rapidly expanding cities and demonstrates the usefulness of such models for

  17. Simulation of Regionally Ecological Land Based on a Cellular Automation Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiubin Li

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Ecological land is like the “liver” of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem.

  18. Simulation of regionally ecological land based on a cellular automation model: a case study of Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hualin; Kung, Chih-Chun; Zhang, Yanting; Li, Xiubin

    2012-08-01

    Ecological land is like the "liver" of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA) model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem.

  19. Does niche divergence accompany allopatric divergence in Aphelocoma jays as predicted under ecological speciation? Insights from tests with niche models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormack, John E; Zellmer, Amanda J; Knowles, L Lacey

    2010-05-01

    The role of ecology in the origin of species has been the subject of long-standing interest to evolutionary biologists. New sources of spatially explicit ecological data allow for large-scale tests of whether speciation is associated with niche divergence or whether closely related species tend to be similar ecologically (niche conservatism). Because of the confounding effects of spatial autocorrelation of environmental variables, we generate null expectations for niche divergence for both an ecological-niche modeling and a multivariate approach to address the question: do allopatrically distributed taxa occupy similar niches? In a classic system for the study of niche evolution--the Aphelocoma jays--we show that there is little evidence for niche divergence among Mexican Jay (A. ultramarina) lineages in the process of speciation, contrary to previous results. In contrast, Aphelocoma species that exist in partial sympatry in some regions show evidence for niche divergence. Our approach is widely applicable to the many cases of allopatric lineages in the beginning stages of speciation. These results do not support an ecological speciation model for Mexican Jay lineages because, in most cases, the allopatric environments they occupy are not significantly more divergent than expected under a null model.

  20. Ecosystem-based fishery management: a critical review of concepts and ecological economic models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Thanh Viet

      An ecosystem approach means different things to different people. As a result the concept of ecosystem-based fishery management is evolving and it has no universal definition or consistent application. As regards ecosystem modeling, most economic models of fishery ignore the linkages to lower...... trophic levels. In particular, environmental data and other bottom-up information is widely disregarded. The objective of this paper is to provide a critical review of concepts and ecological economic models relating to ecosystem-based fishery management....

  1. Application of spatial models to the stopover ecology of trans-Gulf migrants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theodore R. Simons; Scott M. Pearson; Frank R. Moore

    2000-01-01

    Studies at migratory stopover sites along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico are providing an understanding of how weather, habitat, and energetic factors combine to shape the stopover ecology of trans-Gulf migrants. We are coupling this understanding with analyses of landscape-level patterns of habitat availability by using spatially explicit models to simulate...

  2. Naval Research Laboratory Ecological -- Photochemical -- Bio-optical--Numerical Experiment (Neptune) Version 1: A Portable, Flexible Modeling Environment Designed to Resolve Time-dependent Feedbacks Between Upper Ocean Ecology, Photochemistry, and Optics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jolliff, Jason K; Kindle, John C

    2007-01-01

    A modeling system has been constructed that combines ecological element cycling, photochemical processes, and bio-optical processes into a single simulation that may be coupled to hydrodynamic models...

  3. Conventional and ecological public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rayner, G

    2009-09-01

    This paper suggests that current models of public health are no longer sufficient as a means for understanding the health challenges of the anthropogenic age, and argues for an alternative based upon an ecological model. The roots of this perspective originated within the Victorian era, although it found only limited expression at that time. Ecological thinking in public health has only been revived relatively recently. Derived from an analysis of obesity, this paper proposes the development of an approach to ecological public health based on four dimensions of existence: the material, the physiological, the social and the cultural-cognitive. The implications for public policy are considered.

  4. Eco-Anthropic Compatibility - a Multidisciplinary Model in Urban Ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIANO L. BIANCA

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I propose a multidisciplinary model of urban development which goes beyond the notion of ecological sustainability, by building on the concept of eco-anthropic compatibility. First of all I will sketch the historical development of human aggregations and I will underline the difference between ancient and modern aggregations. On the basis of this analysis, I will take into consideration the notion of sustainability and its possible application to present conurbations. I will underline several limits of the notion of sustainable development and I will propose a multidisciplinary model grounded on a broader and new notion: the eco-anthropic compatibility. Using this notion, which includes the idea of sustainability, it is possible to handle, within the model, the human factors and human living conditions inside an urban aggregation. Finally, I will state that the actual urban model is decaying and therefore, sooner or later, we will have to face the end of urban civilization; for this reason we can start imagining new future ways for human aggregations on the planet based on the notion of eco-anthropic compatibility.

  5. Calibration and analysis of genome-based models for microbial ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louca, Stilianos; Doebeli, Michael

    2015-10-16

    Microbial ecosystem modeling is complicated by the large number of unknown parameters and the lack of appropriate calibration tools. Here we present a novel computational framework for modeling microbial ecosystems, which combines genome-based model construction with statistical analysis and calibration to experimental data. Using this framework, we examined the dynamics of a community of Escherichia coli strains that emerged in laboratory evolution experiments, during which an ancestral strain diversified into two coexisting ecotypes. We constructed a microbial community model comprising the ancestral and the evolved strains, which we calibrated using separate monoculture experiments. Simulations reproduced the successional dynamics in the evolution experiments, and pathway activation patterns observed in microarray transcript profiles. Our approach yielded detailed insights into the metabolic processes that drove bacterial diversification, involving acetate cross-feeding and competition for organic carbon and oxygen. Our framework provides a missing link towards a data-driven mechanistic microbial ecology.

  6. Practical guidelines for modelling post-entry spread in invasion ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hazel Parry

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article we review a variety of methods to enable understanding and modelling the spread of a pest or pathogen post-entry. Building upon our experience of multidisciplinary research in this area, we propose practical guidelines and a framework for model development, to help with the application of mathematical modelling in the field of invasion ecology for post-entry spread. We evaluate the pros and cons of a range of methods, including references to examples of the methods in practice. We also show how issues of data deficiency and uncertainty can be addressed. The aim is to provide guidance to the reader on the most suitable elements to include in a model of post-entry dispersal in a risk assessment, under differing circumstances. We identify both the strengths and weaknesses of different methods and their application as part of a holistic, multidisciplinary approach to biosecurity research.

  7. Spatial ecology across scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastings, Alan; Petrovskii, Sergei; Morozov, Andrew

    2011-04-23

    The international conference 'Models in population dynamics and ecology 2010: animal movement, dispersal and spatial ecology' took place at the University of Leicester, UK, on 1-3 September 2010, focusing on mathematical approaches to spatial population dynamics and emphasizing cross-scale issues. Exciting new developments in scaling up from individual level movement to descriptions of this movement at the macroscopic level highlighted the importance of mechanistic approaches, with different descriptions at the microscopic level leading to different ecological outcomes. At higher levels of organization, different macroscopic descriptions of movement also led to different properties at the ecosystem and larger scales. New developments from Levy flight descriptions to the incorporation of new methods from physics and elsewhere are revitalizing research in spatial ecology, which will both increase understanding of fundamental ecological processes and lead to tools for better management.

  8. Basic priority rating model 2.0: current applications for priority setting in health promotion practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neiger, Brad L; Thackeray, Rosemary; Fagen, Michael C

    2011-03-01

    Priority setting is an important component of systematic planning in health promotion and also factors into the development of a comprehensive evaluation plan. The basic priority rating (BPR) model was introduced more than 50 years ago and includes criteria that should be considered in any priority setting approach (i.e., use of predetermined criteria, standardized comparisons, and a rubric that controls bias). Although the BPR model has provided basic direction in priority setting, it does not represent the broad array of data currently available to decision makers. Elements in the model also give more weight to the impact of communicable diseases compared with chronic diseases. For these reasons, several modifications are recommended to improve the BPR model and to better assist health promotion practitioners in the priority setting process. The authors also suggest a new name, BPR 2.0, to represent this revised model.

  9. Applications of contaminant fate and bioaccumulation models in assessing ecological risks of chemicals: A case study for gasoline hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Foster, Karen L.; Maddalena, Randy L.; Parkerton, Thomas F.; Mackay, Don

    2004-02-01

    Mass balance models of chemical fate and transport can be applied in ecological risk assessments for quantitative estimation of concentrations in air, water, soil and sediment. These concentrations can, in turn, be used to estimate organism exposures and ultimately internal tissue concentrations that can be compared to mode-of-action-based critical body residues that correspond to toxic effects. From this comparison, risks to the exposed organism can be evaluated. To illustrate the practical utility of fate models in ecological risk assessments of commercial products, the EQC model and a simple screening level biouptake model including three organisms, (a bird, a mammal and a fish) is applied to gasoline. In this analysis, gasoline is divided into 24 components or ''blocks'' with similar environmental fate properties that are assumed to elicit ecotoxicity via a narcotic mode of action. Results demonstrate that differences in chemical properties and mode of entry into the environment lead to profound differences in the efficiency of transport from emission to target biota. We discuss the implications of these results and insights gained into the regional fate and ecological risks associated with gasoline. This approach is particularly suitable for assessing mixtures of components that have similar modes of action. We conclude that the model-based methodologies presented are widely applicable for screening level ecological risk assessments that support effective chemicals management.

  10. A Proposal of Ecologic Taxes Based on Thermo-Economic Performance of Heat Engine Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Angulo-Brown

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Within the context of Finite-Time Thermodynamics (FTT a simplified thermal power plant model (the so-called Novikov engine is analyzed under economical criteria by means of the concepts of profit function and the costs involved in the performance of the power plant. In this study, two different heat transfer laws are used, the so called Newton’s law of cooling and the Dulong-Petit’s law of cooling. Two FTT optimization criteria for the performance analysis are used: the maximum power regime (MP and the so-called ecological criterion. This last criterion leads the engine model towards a mode of performance that appreciably diminishes the engine’s wasted energy. In this work, it is shown that the energy-unit price produced under maximum power conditions is cheaper than that produced under maximum ecological (ME conditions. This was accomplished by using a typical definition of profits function stemming from economics. The MP-regime produces considerably more wasted energy toward the environment, thus the MP energy-unit price is subsidized by nature. Due to this fact, an ecological tax is proposed, which could be a certain function of the price difference between the MP and ME modes of power production.

  11. A proposal of ecologic taxes based on thermo-economic performance of heat engine models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barranco-Jimenez, M. A. [Departamento de Ciencias Basicas, Escuela Superior de Computo del IPN, Av. Miguel Bernal Esq. Juan de Dios Batiz U.P. Zacatenco CP 07738, D.F. (Mexico); Ramos-Gayosso, I. [Unidad de Administracion de Riesgos, Banco de Mexico, 5 de Mayo, Centro, D.F. (Mexico); Rosales, M. A. [Departamento de Fisica y Matematicas, Universidad de las Americas, Puebla Exhacienda Sta. Catarina Martir, Cholula 72820, Puebla (Mexico); Angulo-Brown, F. [Departamento de Fisica, Escuela Superior de Fisica y Matematicas del IPN, Edif. 9 U.P. Zacatenco CP 07738, D.F. (Mexico)

    2009-07-01

    Within the context of Finite-Time Thermodynamics (FTT) a simplified thermal power plant model (the so-called Novikov engine) is analyzed under economical criteria by means of the concepts of profit function and the costs involved in the performance of the power plant. In this study, two different heat transfer laws are used, the so called Newton's law of cooling and the Dulong-Petit's law of cooling. Two FTT optimization criteria for the performance analysis are used: the maximum power regime (MP) and the so-called ecological criterion. This last criterion leads the engine model towards a mode of performance that appreciably diminishes the engine's wasted energy. In this work, it is shown that the energy-unit price produced under maximum power conditions is cheaper than that produced under maximum ecological (ME) conditions. This was accomplished by using a typical definition of profits function stemming from economics. The MP-regime produces considerably more wasted energy toward the environment, thus the MP energy-unit price is subsidized by nature. Due to this fact, an ecological tax is proposed, which could be a certain function of the price difference between the MP and ME modes of power production. (author)

  12. The relation between energy - ecology - economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horn, J.

    1977-01-01

    In North America and Western Europe, supporters of zero growth think that economy and energy, on the one hand, and an intact ecology, on the other, are opposites or opposing tendencies which cannot go hand in hand. These people also contest the claim that there is a linear correlation between a developing ecology and technology and increased energy consumption. The author thinks that the above basic assumptions are wrong and not in agreement with either the laws of evolution of the geosphere or with the necessities of the present political and economic situation. Giving an outline of the history of evolution and the present situation, especially in the developing countries, he shows that there is a linear, self-strengthening correlation between economic growth and capital-intensive technological innovation on the one hand and environmental improvement on the other. (orig./GG) [de

  13. Application of genetic algorithm in radio ecological models parameter determination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pantelic, G. [Institute of Occupatioanl Health and Radiological Protection ' Dr Dragomir Karajovic' , Belgrade (Serbia)

    2006-07-01

    The method of genetic algorithms was used to determine the biological half-life of 137 Cs in cow milk after the accident in Chernobyl. Methodologically genetic algorithms are based on the fact that natural processes tend to optimize themselves and therefore this method should be more efficient in providing optimal solutions in the modeling of radio ecological and environmental events. The calculated biological half-life of 137 Cs in milk is (32 {+-} 3) days and transfer coefficient from grass to milk is (0.019 {+-} 0.005). (authors)

  14. Forest economics, natural disturbances and the new ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; Robert J. Huggett; John M. Pye

    2008-01-01

    The major thesis of this chapter is that the economic analysis of forest disturbances will be enhanced by linking economic and ecologic models. Although we only review a limited number of concepts drawn generally from mathematical and empirical ecology, the overarching theme we present is that ecological models of forest disturbance processes are complex and not...

  15. Exploring the Mechanisms of Ecological Land Change Based on the Spatial Autoregressive Model: A Case Study of the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hualin; Liu, Zhifei; Wang, Peng; Liu, Guiying; Lu, Fucai

    2013-01-01

    Ecological land is one of the key resources and conditions for the survival of humans because it can provide ecosystem services and is particularly important to public health and safety. It is extremely valuable for effective ecological management to explore the evolution mechanisms of ecological land. Based on spatial statistical analyses, we explored the spatial disparities and primary potential drivers of ecological land change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China. The results demonstrated that the global Moran’s I value is 0.1646 during the 1990 to 2005 time period and indicated significant positive spatial correlation (p ecological land changes weakened in the study area. Some potential driving forces were identified by applying the spatial autoregressive model in this study. The results demonstrated that the higher economic development level and industrialization rate were the main drivers for the faster change of ecological land in the study area. This study also tested the superiority of the spatial autoregressive model to study the mechanisms of ecological land change by comparing it with the traditional linear regressive model. PMID:24384778

  16. Exploring the mechanisms of ecological land change based on the spatial autoregressive model: a case study of the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hualin; Liu, Zhifei; Wang, Peng; Liu, Guiying; Lu, Fucai

    2013-12-31

    Ecological land is one of the key resources and conditions for the survival of humans because it can provide ecosystem services and is particularly important to public health and safety. It is extremely valuable for effective ecological management to explore the evolution mechanisms of ecological land. Based on spatial statistical analyses, we explored the spatial disparities and primary potential drivers of ecological land change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China. The results demonstrated that the global Moran's I value is 0.1646 during the 1990 to 2005 time period and indicated significant positive spatial correlation (p ecological land changes weakened in the study area. Some potential driving forces were identified by applying the spatial autoregressive model in this study. The results demonstrated that the higher economic development level and industrialization rate were the main drivers for the faster change of ecological land in the study area. This study also tested the superiority of the spatial autoregressive model to study the mechanisms of ecological land change by comparing it with the traditional linear regressive model.

  17. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  18. An Intelligent Front End for Ecological Modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Uschold, M.; Muetzelfeldt, R.; Bundy, Alan; Harding, N.; Robertson, David

    1984-01-01

    This paper is a modified version of my acceptance lecture for the 1986 SPL-Insight Award. It turned into something of a personal credo — describing my view of the nature of AI the potential social benefit of applied AI the importance of basic AI research the role of logic and the methodology of rational construction the interplay of applied and basic AI research, and the importance of funding basic AI. These points are knitted together by an analogy between AI and structural engineering: in p...

  19. Understanding the psychology of bullying: Moving toward a social-ecological diathesis-stress model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swearer, Susan M; Hymel, Shelley

    2015-01-01

    With growing recognition that bullying is a complex phenomenon, influenced by multiple factors, research findings to date have been understood within a social-ecological framework. Consistent with this model, we review research on the known correlates and contributing factors in bullying/victimization within the individual, family, peer group, school and community. Recognizing the fluid and dynamic nature of involvement in bullying, we then expand on this model and consider research on the consequences of bullying involvement, as either victim or bully or both, and propose a social-ecological, diathesis-stress model for understanding the bullying dynamic and its impact. Specifically, we frame involvement in bullying as a stressful life event for both children who bully and those who are victimized, serving as a catalyst for a diathesis-stress connection between bullying, victimization, and psychosocial difficulties. Against this backdrop, we suggest that effective bullying prevention and intervention efforts must take into account the complexities of the human experience, addressing both individual characteristics and history of involvement in bullying, risk and protective factors, and the contexts in which bullying occurs, in order to promote healthier social relationships. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. Application of the Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model to Ecological Site Descriptions and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    The utility of Ecological Site Descriptions (ESDs) and State-and-Transition Models (STMs) concepts in guiding rangeland management hinges on their ability to accurately describe and predict community dynamics and the associated consequences. For many rangeland ecosystems, plant community dynamics ar...

  1. Structural equation modeling with EQS basic concepts, applications, and programming

    CERN Document Server

    Byrne, Barbara M

    2013-01-01

    Readers who want a less mathematical alternative to the EQS manual will find exactly what they're looking for in this practical text. Written specifically for those with little to no knowledge of structural equation modeling (SEM) or EQS, the author's goal is to provide a non-mathematical introduction to the basic concepts of SEM by applying these principles to EQS, Version 6.1. The book clearly demonstrates a wide variety of SEM/EQS applications that include confirmatory factor analytic and full latent variable models. Written in a "user-friendly" style, the author "walks" the reader through the varied steps involved in the process of testing SEM models: model specification and estimation, assessment of model fit, EQS output, and interpretation of findings. Each of the book's applications is accompanied by: a statement of the hypothesis being tested, a schematic representation of the model, explanations of the EQS input and output files, tips on how to use the pull-down menus, and the data file upon which ...

  2. Study on Regional Agro-ecological Risk and Pressure Supported by City Expansion Model and SERA Model - A Case Study of Selangor, Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Shi , Xiaoxia; Zhang , Yaoli; Peng , Cheng

    2010-01-01

    International audience; This study revealed the influence of city expansion on the agro-ecological risks through the analysis and prediction of city expansion in different periods and study on the change of risk and pressure on the regional agricultural eco-environment. The city expansion of Selangor, Malaysia (as a case) was predicted based on relevant spatial and attribute data as well as simulation prediction models of city expansion. Subsequently, the ecological risk and pressure in the s...

  3. Some directions in ecological theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendall, Bruce E

    2015-12-01

    The role of theory within ecology has changed dramatically in recent decades. Once primarily a source of qualitative conceptual framing, ecological theories and models are now often used to develop quantitative explanations of empirical patterns and to project future dynamics of specific ecological systems. In this essay, I recount my own experience of this transformation, in which accelerating computing power and the widespread incorporation of stochastic processes into ecological theory combined to create some novel integration of mathematical and statistical models. This stronger integration drives theory towards incorporating more biological realism, and I explore ways in which we can grapple with that realism to generate new general theoretical insights. This enhanced realism, in turn, may lead to frameworks for projecting ecological responses to anthropogenic change, which is, arguably, the central challenge for 21st-century ecology. In an era of big data and synthesis, ecologists are increasingly seeking to infer causality from observational data; but conventional biometry provides few tools for this project. This is a realm where theorists can and should play an important role, and I close by pointing towards some analytical and philosophical approaches developed in our sister discipline of economics that address this very problem. While I make no grand prognostications about the likely discoveries of ecological theory over the coming century, you will find in this essay a scattering of more or less far-fetched ideas that I, at least, think are interesting and (possibly) fruitful directions for our field.

  4. Emergence Unites Ecology and Society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronald L. Trosper

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available The effort to combine analysis of ecosystems and social systems requires a firm theoretical basis. When humans are present in an ecosystem, their actions affect emergent structures; this paper examines forms of emergence that account for the presence of humans. Humans monitor and regulate ecosystems based on their cultural systems. Cultural systems consist of concepts linked in complicated ways that can form consistent world views, can contain inconsistencies, and may or may not accurately model the properties of a social-ecological system. Consequently, human monitoring and regulating processes will differ, depending on cultural systems. Humans, as agents, change or maintain pre-existing material and cultural emergent structures. The presentation is illustrated with a case study of fire-prone forests. The paper shows that explicit attention to emergence serves very well in unifying the following requirements for social-ecological analysis: coherent and observable definitions of sustainability; ways to link ecological and social phenomena; ways to understand cultural reasons for stability and instability in dynamic social-ecological systems; and ways to include human self-evaluation and culture within dynamic models of social-ecological systems. Analysis of cultural emergent structures clarifies many differences in assumptions among the fields of economics, sociology, political science, ecology, and ecological economics. Because it can be readily applied to empirical questions, the framework provides a good way to organize policy analysis that is not dominated by one or another discipline.

  5. Towards an Agro-Industrial Ecology: A review of nutrient flow modelling and assessment tools in agro-food systems at the local scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez-Mena, Hugo; Nesme, Thomas; Pellerin, Sylvain

    2016-01-01

    Improvement in nutrient recycling in agriculture is essential to maintain food production while minimising nutrient pollution of the environment. For this purpose, understanding and modelling nutrient cycles in food and related agro-industrial systems is a crucial task. Although nutrient management has been addressed at the plot and farm scales for many years now in the agricultural sciences, there is a need to upscale these approaches to capture the additional drivers of nutrient cycles that may occur at the local, i.e. district, scale. Industrial ecology principles provide sound bases to analyse nutrient cycling in complex systems. However, since agro-food social-ecological systems have specific ecological and social dimensions, we argue that a new field, referred to as “Agro-Industrial Ecology”, is needed to study these systems. In this paper, we review the literature on nutrient cycling in complex social-ecological systems that can provide a basis for Agro-Industrial Ecology. We identify and describe three major approaches: Environmental Assessment tools, Stock and Flow Analysis methods and Agent-based models. We then discuss their advantages and drawbacks for assessing and modelling nutrient cycles in agro-food systems in terms of their purpose and scope, object representation and time-spatial dynamics. We finally argue that combining stock-flow methods with both agent-based models and environmental impact assessment tools is a promising way to analyse the role of economic agents on nutrient flows and losses and to explore scenarios that better close the nutrient cycles at the local scale. - Highlights: • An Agro-Industrial Ecology perspective is essential to model local agro-food systems. • We provide a classification of nutrient (N, P) models, methods and assessment tools. • We distinguished Environmental Assessment, Stock and flow and Agent-based approaches. • The pros and cons of these nutrient cycle models, methods and tools are discussed.

  6. Towards an Agro-Industrial Ecology: A review of nutrient flow modelling and assessment tools in agro-food systems at the local scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernandez-Mena, Hugo, E-mail: hugo.fernandez@bordeaux.inra.fr [Bordeaux Sciences Agro, Univ. Bordeaux, UMR 1391 ISPA, F-33175 Gradignan (France); INRA, UMR 1391 ISPA, F-33883 Villenave d' Ornon (France); Nesme, Thomas [Bordeaux Sciences Agro, Univ. Bordeaux, UMR 1391 ISPA, F-33175 Gradignan (France); Pellerin, Sylvain [INRA, UMR 1391 ISPA, F-33883 Villenave d' Ornon (France)

    2016-02-01

    Improvement in nutrient recycling in agriculture is essential to maintain food production while minimising nutrient pollution of the environment. For this purpose, understanding and modelling nutrient cycles in food and related agro-industrial systems is a crucial task. Although nutrient management has been addressed at the plot and farm scales for many years now in the agricultural sciences, there is a need to upscale these approaches to capture the additional drivers of nutrient cycles that may occur at the local, i.e. district, scale. Industrial ecology principles provide sound bases to analyse nutrient cycling in complex systems. However, since agro-food social-ecological systems have specific ecological and social dimensions, we argue that a new field, referred to as “Agro-Industrial Ecology”, is needed to study these systems. In this paper, we review the literature on nutrient cycling in complex social-ecological systems that can provide a basis for Agro-Industrial Ecology. We identify and describe three major approaches: Environmental Assessment tools, Stock and Flow Analysis methods and Agent-based models. We then discuss their advantages and drawbacks for assessing and modelling nutrient cycles in agro-food systems in terms of their purpose and scope, object representation and time-spatial dynamics. We finally argue that combining stock-flow methods with both agent-based models and environmental impact assessment tools is a promising way to analyse the role of economic agents on nutrient flows and losses and to explore scenarios that better close the nutrient cycles at the local scale. - Highlights: • An Agro-Industrial Ecology perspective is essential to model local agro-food systems. • We provide a classification of nutrient (N, P) models, methods and assessment tools. • We distinguished Environmental Assessment, Stock and flow and Agent-based approaches. • The pros and cons of these nutrient cycle models, methods and tools are discussed.

  7. Functional genetics of intraspecific ecological interactions in Arabidopsis thaliana

    OpenAIRE

    Wolf, Jason B.; Mutic, Joshua J.; Kover, Paula X.

    2011-01-01

    Studying the genetic basis of traits involved in ecological interactions is a fundamental part of elucidating the connections between evolutionary and ecological processes. Such knowledge allows one to link genetic models of trait evolution with ecological models describing interactions within and between species. Previous work has shown that connections between genetic and ecological processes in Arabidopsis thaliana may be mediated by the fact that quantitative trait loci (QTL) with ‘direct...

  8. Application of genetic algorithm in radio ecological models parameter determination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pantelic, G.

    2006-01-01

    The method of genetic algorithms was used to determine the biological half-life of 137 Cs in cow milk after the accident in Chernobyl. Methodologically genetic algorithms are based on the fact that natural processes tend to optimize themselves and therefore this method should be more efficient in providing optimal solutions in the modeling of radio ecological and environmental events. The calculated biological half-life of 137 Cs in milk is (32 ± 3) days and transfer coefficient from grass to milk is (0.019 ± 0.005). (authors)

  9. Justification of system of assessment of ecological safety degree of housing construction objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kankhva, Vadim

    2017-10-01

    In article characteristics and properties of competitiveness of housing construction objects are investigated, criteria and points of national systems of ecological building’s standardization are structured, the compliance assessment form on stages of life cycle of a capital construction project is developed. The main indicators of level of ecological safety considering requirements of the international ISO standards 9000 and ISO 14000 and which are based on the basic principles of general quality management (TQM) are presented.

  10. [Political ecology, ecological economics, and public health: interfaces for the sustainability of development and health promotion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, Marcelo Firpo; Martinez-Alier, Joan

    2007-01-01

    This article proposes to focus contributions from political ecology and ecological economics to the field of collective health with a view towards integrating the discussions around health promotion, socio-environmental sustainability, and development. Ecological economics is a recent interdisciplinary field that combines economists and other professionals from the social, human, and life sciences. The field has developed new concepts and methodologies that seek to grasp the relationship between the economy and ecological and social processes such as social metabolism and metabolic profile, thereby interrelating economic, material, and energy flows and producing indicators and indexes for (un)sustainability. Meanwhile, political ecology approaches ecological issues and socio-environmental conflicts based on the economic and power dynamics characterizing modern societies. Collective health and the discussions on health promotion can expand our understanding of territory, communities, and the role of science and institutions based on the contributions of political ecology and ecological economics in analyzing development models and the distributive and socio-environmental conflicts generated by them.

  11. Testing a social ecological model for relations between political violence and child adjustment in Northern Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, E Mark; Merrilees, Christine E; Schermerhorn, Alice C; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

    2010-05-01

    Relations between political violence and child adjustment are matters of international concern. Past research demonstrates the significance of community, family, and child psychological processes in child adjustment, supporting study of interrelations between multiple social ecological factors and child adjustment in contexts of political violence. Testing a social ecological model, 300 mothers and their children (M = 12.28 years, SD = 1.77) from Catholic and Protestant working class neighborhoods in Belfast, Northern Ireland, completed measures of community discord, family relations, and children's regulatory processes (i.e., emotional security) and outcomes. Historical political violence in neighborhoods based on objective records (i.e., politically motivated deaths) were related to family members' reports of current sectarian antisocial behavior and nonsectarian antisocial behavior. Interparental conflict and parental monitoring and children's emotional security about both the community and family contributed to explanatory pathways for relations between sectarian antisocial behavior in communities and children's adjustment problems. The discussion evaluates support for social ecological models for relations between political violence and child adjustment and its implications for understanding relations in other parts of the world.

  12. Considerations in representing human individuals in social ecological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manfredo, Michael J.; Teel, Tara L.; Gavin, Michael C.; Fulton, David C.

    2017-01-01

    In this chapter we focus on how to integrate the human individual into social-ecological systems analysis, and how to improve research on individual thought and action regarding the environment by locating it within the broader social-ecological context. We discuss three key questions as considerations for future research: (1) is human thought conceptualized as a dynamic and adaptive process, (2) is the individual placed in a multi-level context (including within-person levels, person-group interactions, and institutional and structural factors), and (3) is human thought seen as mutually constructed with the social and natural environment. Increased emphasis on the individual will be essential if we are to understand agency, innovation, and adaptation in social-ecological systems.

  13. Developing an Agro-Ecological Zoning Model for Tumbleweed (Salsola kali, as Energy Crop in Drylands of Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Falasca Silvia

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Salsola kali is considered extremely valuable as an energy crop worldwide because it adapts easily to environments with strong abiotic stresses (hydric, saline and alkaline and produces large amounts of biomass in drylands. This species is categorized as an important weed in Argentina. The aim of this work was to design an agro-ecological zoning model for tumbleweed in Argentina, employing a Geography Information System. Based on the bioclimatic requirements for the species and the climatic data for Argentina (1981–2010 period, an agro-climatic suitability map was drawn. This map was superimposed on the saline and alkaline soil maps delineated by the Food and Agriculture Organization for dry climates, generating the agro-ecological zoning on a scale of 1 : 500 000. This zoning revealed very suitable and suitable cultivation areas on halomorphic soils. The potential growing areas extend from N of the Salta province (approximately 22° S to the Santa Cruz province (50° S. The use of tumbleweed on halomorphic soils under semi-arid to arid conditions, for the dual purpose of forage use and source of lignocellulosic material for bioenergy, could improve agricultural productivity in these lands. Furthermore, it could also contribute to their environmental sustainability, since the species can be used to reclaim saline soils over the years. Based on international bibliography, the authors outlined an agro-ecological zoning model. This model may be applied to any part of the world, using the agro-ecological limits presented here.

  14. [Ecology suitability study of Ephedra intermedia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xiao-Hui; Lu, You-Yuan; Huang, De-Dong; Zhu, Tian-Tian; Lv, Pei-Lin; Jin, Ling

    2017-06-01

    The study aims at predicting ecological suitability of Ephedra intermedia in China by using maximum entropy Maxent model combined with GIS, and finding the main ecological factors affecting the distribution of E. intermedia suitability in appropriate growth area. Thirty-eight collected samples of E. intermedia and E. intermedia and 116 distribution information from CVH information using ArcGIS technology were analyzed. MaxEnt model was applied to forecast the E. intermedia in our country's ecology. E. intermedia MaxEnt ROC curve model training data and testing data sets the AUC value was 0.986 and 0.958, respectively, which were greater than 0.9, tending to be 1.The calculated E. intermedia habitat suitability by the model showed a high accuracy and credibility, which indicated that MaxEnt model could well predict the potential distribution area of E. intermedia in China. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

  15. Countermeasures for China’s Ecological Environment Construction in Land Reclamation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chen; LI; Xinfeng; LIU; Zhe; PENG; Tao; SI; Lingfeng; KONG

    2013-01-01

    Basic situation of the current ecological environment construction in land consolidation and rehabilitation of China is introduced. The related advanced experience abroad is summarized from mainly four aspects, namely policy, system as well as subject development, planning guidance, design method of project planning and engineering study, and practical countermeasures to China’s ecological environment construction in land reclamation are proposed. In terms of policy, system and subject, relevant regulations, policies and system construction should be strengthened and the framework of policy, system and subject development in ecological landscape construction of China’s land reclamation should be proposed, integrating ecological environment construction into land reclamation. At the level of strategic planning, the spatial layout and construction key points of green infrastructure in land reclamation of "urban multi-functional developing region, eastern economic developed region, central modern agricultural region and northwestern ecological fragile region" should be achieved. At the level of project planning design, ecological principles, sustainable landscape design principles and vernacular landscape design methods are to be integrated into the planning procedure to form operable technique regulations or introductions. At the level of engineering design, engineering technique system, standards and regulations of ditches, roads, forests and channels with local distinctions should be formulated according to the characters and strategic demands of urbanization, industrialization, agriculture modernization and ecological environment preservation in different regions.

  16. Exploring the Mechanisms of Ecological Land Change Based on the Spatial Autoregressive Model: A Case Study of the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hualin Xie

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Ecological land is one of the key resources and conditions for the survival of humans because it can provide ecosystem services and is particularly important to public health and safety. It is extremely valuable for effective ecological management to explore the evolution mechanisms of ecological land. Based on spatial statistical analyses, we explored the spatial disparities and primary potential drivers of ecological land change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China. The results demonstrated that the global Moran’s I value is 0.1646 during the 1990 to 2005 time period and indicated significant positive spatial correlation (p < 0.05. The results also imply that the clustering trend of ecological land changes weakened in the study area. Some potential driving forces were identified by applying the spatial autoregressive model in this study. The results demonstrated that the higher economic development level and industrialization rate were the main drivers for the faster change of ecological land in the study area. This study also tested the superiority of the spatial autoregressive model to study the mechanisms of ecological land change by comparing it with the traditional linear regressive model.

  17. A Policy Analysis Perspective on Ecological Restoration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan Baker

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Using a simple stages model of the policy process, we explore the politics of ecological restoration using an array of examples drawn across sector, different size and scale, and from different countries. A policy analysis perspective reveals how, at both the program and project levels, ecological restoration operates within a complex and dynamic interplay between technical decision making, ideologies, and interest politics. Viewed through the stages model, restoration policy involves negotiating nature across stages in the policy making process, including agenda setting, policy formulation, implementation, and evaluation. The stages model is a useful heuristic devise; however, this linear model assumes that policy makers approach the issue rationally. In practice, ecological restoration policy takes place in the context of different distributions of power between the various public and private actors involved at the different stages of restoration policy making. This allows us to reiterate the point that ecological restoration is best seen not only as a technical task but as a social and political project.

  18. Derivation of simplified basic equations of gas-liquid two-phase dispersed flow based on two-fluid model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kataoka, Isao; Tomiyama, Akio

    2004-01-01

    The simplified and physically reasonable basic equations for the gas-liquid dispersed flow were developed based on some appropriate assumptions and the treatment of dispersed phase as isothermal rigid particles. Based on the local instant formulation of mass, momentum and energy conservation of the dispersed flow, time-averaged equations were obtained assuming that physical quantities in the dispersed phase are uniform. These assumptions are approximately valid when phase change rate and/or chemical reaction rate are not so large at gas-liquid interface and there is no heat generation in within the dispersed phase. Detailed discussions were made on the characteristics of obtained basic equations and physical meanings of terms consisting the basic equations. It is shown that, in the derived averaged momentum equation, the terms of pressure gradient and viscous momentum diffusion do not appear and, in the energy equation, the term of molecular thermal diffusion heat flux does not appear. These characteristics of the derived equations were shown to be very consistent concerning the physical interpretation of the gas-liquid dispersed flow. Furthermore, the obtained basic equations are consistent with experiments for the dispersed flow where most of averaged physical quantities are obtained assuming that the distributions of those are uniform within the dispersed phase. Investigation was made on the problem whether the obtained basic equations are well-posed or ill-posed for the initial value problem. The eigenvalues of the simplified mass and momentum equations are calculated for basic equations obtained here and previous two-fluid basic equations with one pressure model. Well-posedness and ill-posedness are judged whether the eigenvalues are real or imaginary. The result indicated the newly developed basic equations always constitute the well-posed initial value problem while the previous two-fluid basic equations based on one pressure model constitutes ill

  19. Environmental and ecological water requirement of river system: a case study of Haihe-Luanhe river system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    In order to reduce the environmental and ecological problems induced by water resources development and utilization, this paper proposes a concept of environmental and ecological water requirement. It is defined as the minimum water amount to be consumed by the natural water bodies to conserve its environmental and ecological functions. Based on the definition, the methods on calculating the amount of environmental and ecological water requirement are determined. In the case study on Haihe-Luanhe river system, the water requirement is divided into three parts, i.e., the basic in-stream flow, water requirement for sediment transfer and water consumption by evaporation of the lakes or everglades. The results of the calculation show that the environmental and ecological water requirement in the river system is about 124×108 m3, including 57×108 m3 for basic in-stream flow, 63×108m3 for sediment transfer and 4×l08m3 for net evaporation loss of lakes. The total amount of environmental and ecological water requirement accounts for 54% of the amount of runoff (228×108 m3). However, it should be realized that the amount of environmental and ecological water requirement must be more than that we have calculated. According to this result, we consider that the rational utilization rate of the runoff in the river systems must not be more than 40%. Since the current utilization rate of the river system, which is over 80%, has been far beyond the limitation, the problems of environment and ecology are quite serious. It is imperative to control and adjust water development and utilization to eliminate the existing problems and to avoid the potential ecological or environmental crisis.

  20. Efficient ensemble forecasting of marine ecology with clustered 1D models and statistical lateral exchange: application to the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Dreano, Denis

    2017-05-24

    Forecasting the state of large marine ecosystems is important for many economic and public health applications. However, advanced three-dimensional (3D) ecosystem models, such as the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), are computationally expensive, especially when implemented within an ensemble data assimilation system requiring several parallel integrations. As an alternative to 3D ecological forecasting systems, we propose to implement a set of regional one-dimensional (1D) water-column ecological models that run at a fraction of the computational cost. The 1D model domains are determined using a Gaussian mixture model (GMM)-based clustering method and satellite chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) data. Regionally averaged Chl-a data is assimilated into the 1D models using the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter. To laterally exchange information between subregions and improve the forecasting skills, we introduce a new correction step to the assimilation scheme, in which we assimilate a statistical forecast of future Chl-a observations based on information from neighbouring regions. We apply this approach to the Red Sea and show that the assimilative 1D ecological models can forecast surface Chl-a concentration with high accuracy. The statistical assimilation step further improves the forecasting skill by as much as 50%. This general approach of clustering large marine areas and running several interacting 1D ecological models is very flexible. It allows many combinations of clustering, filtering and regression technics to be used and can be applied to build efficient forecasting systems in other large marine ecosystems.

  1. Efficient ensemble forecasting of marine ecology with clustered 1D models and statistical lateral exchange: application to the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Dreano, Denis; Tsiaras, Kostas; Triantafyllou, George; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2017-01-01

    Forecasting the state of large marine ecosystems is important for many economic and public health applications. However, advanced three-dimensional (3D) ecosystem models, such as the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), are computationally expensive, especially when implemented within an ensemble data assimilation system requiring several parallel integrations. As an alternative to 3D ecological forecasting systems, we propose to implement a set of regional one-dimensional (1D) water-column ecological models that run at a fraction of the computational cost. The 1D model domains are determined using a Gaussian mixture model (GMM)-based clustering method and satellite chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) data. Regionally averaged Chl-a data is assimilated into the 1D models using the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter. To laterally exchange information between subregions and improve the forecasting skills, we introduce a new correction step to the assimilation scheme, in which we assimilate a statistical forecast of future Chl-a observations based on information from neighbouring regions. We apply this approach to the Red Sea and show that the assimilative 1D ecological models can forecast surface Chl-a concentration with high accuracy. The statistical assimilation step further improves the forecasting skill by as much as 50%. This general approach of clustering large marine areas and running several interacting 1D ecological models is very flexible. It allows many combinations of clustering, filtering and regression technics to be used and can be applied to build efficient forecasting systems in other large marine ecosystems.

  2. Effects of Changes in Lugu Lake Water Quality on Schizothorax Yunnansis Ecological Habitat Based on HABITAT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wei; Mynnet, Arthur

    Schizothorax Yunnansis is an unique fish species only existing in Lugu Lake, which is located in the southwestern China. The simulation and research on Schizothorax Yunnansis habitat environment have a vital significance to protect this rare fish. With the development of the tourism industry, there bring more pressure on the environmental protection. The living environment of Schizothorax Yunnansis is destroyed seriously because the water quality is suffering the sustaining pollution of domestic sewage from the peripheral villages. This paper analyzes the relationship between water quality change and Schizothorax Yunnansis ecological habitat and evalutes Schizothorax Yunnansis's ecological habitat impact based on HABITAT model. The results show that when the TP concentration in Lugu Lake does not exceed Schizothorax Yunnansis's survival threshold, Schizothorax Yunnansis can get more nutrients and the suitable habitat area for itself is increased. Conversely, it can lead to TP toxicity in the Schizothorax Yunnansis and even death. Therefore, unsuitable habitat area for Schizothorax Yunnansis is increased. It can be seen from the results that HABITAT model can assist in ecological impact assessment studies by translating results of hydrological, water quality models into effects on the natural environment and human society.

  3. Challenges of ecological restoration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halme, Panu; Allen, Katherine A.; Aunins, Ainars

    2013-01-01

    we introduce northern forests as an ecosystem, discuss the historical and recent human impact and provide a brief status report on the ecological restoration projects and research already conducted there. Based on this discussion, we argue that before any restoration actions commence, the ecology......The alarming rate of ecosystem degradation has raised the need for ecological restoration throughout different biomes and continents. North European forests may appear as one of the least vulnerable ecosystems from a global perspective, since forest cover is not rapidly decreasing and many...... on Biological Diversity. Several northern countries are now taking up this challenge by restoring forest biodiversity with increasing intensity. The ecology and biodiversity of boreal forests are relatively well understood making them a good model for restoration activities in many other forest ecosystems. Here...

  4. Book review: The ecology and behavior of amphibians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walls, Susan C.

    2008-01-01

    This state‐of‐the‐art book has made its timely emergence amid a crisis of global magnitude: that of population declines, range reductions, and extinctions of numerous species of amphibians. A clear understanding of the fundamental concepts in amphibian biology is crucial to the success of any conservation effort. This volume compiles the information necessary to acquire that basic understanding. It is a comprehensive synthesis of both traditional and contemporary facets of amphibian biology, spanning a breadth of topics ranging from phylogeny, physiology, behavior, population and community ecology, and conservation. As such, it undoubtedly takes its place among contemporary volumes as the single, authoritative source for basic topics relevant to amphibian life.

  5. What Basic Writers Think about Writing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eves-Bowden, Anmarie

    2001-01-01

    Explores basic writing students' current writing processes, their thoughts on their writing, and their introduction to a structured writing process model. Suggests that educators can assist basic writers in becoming successful college writers by introducing them to a structured writing process model while also helping them to become reflective…

  6. Action Relations. Basic Design Concepts for Behaviour Modelling and Refinement.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quartel, Dick

    This thesis presents basic design concepts, design methods and a basic design language for distributed system behaviours. This language is based on two basic concepts: the action concept and the causality relation concept. Our methods focus on behaviour refinement, which consists of replacing an

  7. Molecular ecology of anaerobic reactor systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hofman-Bang, H. Jacob Peider; Zheng, D.; Westermann, Peter

    2003-01-01

    Anaerobic reactor systems are essential for the treatment of solid and liquid wastes and constitute a core facility in many waste treatment plants. Although much is known about the basic metabolism in different types of anaerobic reactors, little is known about the microbes responsible for these ......Anaerobic reactor systems are essential for the treatment of solid and liquid wastes and constitute a core facility in many waste treatment plants. Although much is known about the basic metabolism in different types of anaerobic reactors, little is known about the microbes responsible...... to the abundance of each microbe in anaerobic reactor systems by rRNA probing. This chapter focuses on various molecular techniques employed and problems encountered when elucidating the microbial ecology of anaerobic reactor systems. Methods such as quantitative dot blot/fluorescence in-situ probing using various...

  8. Feeding ecology of elasmobranch species in southeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra F. Viana

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The feeding ecology of five elasmobranch species was studied on the southern coast of Rio de Janeiro, southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The specimens were caught with a trawl or bottom longline between January 2006 and August 2007. The diets of Psammobatis rutrum and Psammobatis extenta appeared to be basically carcino-benthophagous, with a very small niche width. Rioraja agassizii was basically carcino/ichthyo-benthophagous, also with a narrow niche, including teleost fish and shrimp, but in different proportions according to age and sex. Rhizoprionodon lalandii was ichthyophagous, not influenced by age or sex. The analyses of these species and Atlantoraja cyclophora indicated two trophic groups: one composed of the smaller rays, P. extenta and P. rutrum, which basically fed on small crustaceans, polychaetes and nematodes; and the other of R. lalandii and the larger rays R. agassizii and A. cyclophora, which preyed on teleost fish and brachyurans.

  9. Materialist value orientations as correlates of the new ecological paradigm among university students in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Genying

    2015-04-01

    The new ecological paradigm is an ecocentric view of the relationship between humanity and nature. This study analyzed the correlates of the new ecological paradigm in China using the responses of 1,148 university students to a questionnaire. The participating students were from Lanzhou University and Liaocheng University in China and ranged in age from 16 to 26 years. This study showed that two materialist value orientations, economic precedence over the environment and trust in technology, were negatively correlated with the new ecological paradigm. The correlates of basic values with the new ecological paradigm were mediated by economic precedence over the environment. Female students were more concerned about the environment than were male students.

  10. The use of a basic safety investment model in a practical risk management context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje; Hiriart, Yolande

    2011-01-01

    We consider a basic model in economic safety analysis: a firm is willing to invest an amount x in safety measures to avoid an accident A, which in the case of occurrence, leads to a loss of size L. The probability of an accident is a function of x. The optimal value of x is determined by minimizing the expected costs. In the paper, we re-examine this model by adopting a practical risk/safety management perspective. We question how this model can be used for guiding the firm and regulators in determining the proper level of investment in safety. Attention is given to issues like how to determine the probability of an accident and how to take into account uncertainties that extend beyond the expected value. It is concluded that the model, with suitable extensions and if properly implemented, provides a valuable decision support tool. By focusing on investment levels and stimulating thereby the generation of alternative risk-reducing measures, the model is considered particularly useful in risk reduction (ALARP) processes. - Highlights: → It is shown how to use a basic investment model in a practical risk management setting. → The model may be a valuable decision support tool if properly implemented. → It guides decision makers on risk reduction and how to determine what is ALARP. → The model stimulates the generation of alternative risk-reducing measures.

  11. Statistical Physics Approaches to Microbial Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Pankaj

    The unprecedented ability to quantitatively measure and probe complex microbial communities has renewed interest in identifying the fundamental ecological principles governing community ecology in microbial ecosystems. Here, we present work from our group and others showing how ideas from statistical physics can help us uncover these ecological principles. Two major lessons emerge from this work. First, large, ecosystems with many species often display new, emergent ecological behaviors that are absent in small ecosystems with just a few species. To paraphrase Nobel laureate Phil Anderson, ''More is Different'', especially in community ecology. Second, the lack of trophic layer separation in microbial ecology fundamentally distinguishes microbial ecology from classical paradigms of community ecology and leads to qualitative different rules for community assembly in microbes. I illustrate these ideas using both theoretical modeling and novel new experiments on large microbial ecosystems performed by our collaborators (Joshua Goldford and Alvaro Sanchez). Work supported by Simons Investigator in MMLS and NIH R35 R35 GM119461.

  12. Understanding psychiatric disorder by capturing ecologically relevant features of learning and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholl, Jacqueline; Klein-Flügge, Miriam

    2017-09-28

    Recent research in cognitive neuroscience has begun to uncover the processes underlying increasingly complex voluntary behaviours, including learning and decision-making. Partly this success has been possible by progressing from simple experimental tasks to paradigms that incorporate more ecological features. More specifically, the premise is that to understand cognitions and brain functions relevant for real life, we need to introduce some of the ecological challenges that we have evolved to solve. This often entails an increase in task complexity, which can be managed by using computational models to help parse complex behaviours into specific component mechanisms. Here we propose that using computational models with tasks that capture ecologically relevant learning and decision-making processes may provide a critical advantage for capturing the mechanisms underlying symptoms of disorders in psychiatry. As a result, it may help develop mechanistic approaches towards diagnosis and treatment. We begin this review by mapping out the basic concepts and models of learning and decision-making. We then move on to consider specific challenges that emerge in realistic environments and describe how they can be captured by tasks. These include changes of context, uncertainty, reflexive/emotional biases, cost-benefit decision-making, and balancing exploration and exploitation. Where appropriate we highlight future or current links to psychiatry. We particularly draw examples from research on clinical depression, a disorder that greatly compromises motivated behaviours in real-life, but where simpler paradigms have yielded mixed results. Finally, we highlight several paradigms that could be used to help provide new insights into the mechanisms of psychiatric disorders. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Improving ecosystem-scale modeling of evapotranspiration using ecological mechanisms that account for compensatory responses following disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, David J.; Ewers, Brent E.; Mackay, D. Scott; Peckham, Scott; Reed, David E.; Sekoni, Adewale

    2017-09-01

    Mountain pine beetle outbreaks in western North America have led to extensive forest mortality, justifiably generating interest in improving our understanding of how this type of ecological disturbance affects hydrological cycles. While observational studies and simulations have been used to elucidate the effects of mountain beetle mortality on hydrological fluxes, an ecologically mechanistic model of forest evapotranspiration (ET) evaluated against field data has yet to be developed. In this work, we use the Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES) to incorporate the ecohydrological impacts of mountain pine beetle disturbance on ET for a lodgepole pine-dominated forest equipped with an eddy covariance tower. An existing degree-day model was incorporated that predicted the life cycle of mountain pine beetles, along with an empirically derived submodel that allowed sap flux to decline as a function of temperature-dependent blue stain fungal growth. The eddy covariance footprint was divided into multiple cohorts for multiple growing seasons, including representations of recently attacked trees and the compensatory effects of regenerating understory, using two different spatial scaling methods. Our results showed that using a multiple cohort approach matched eddy covariance-measured ecosystem-scale ET fluxes well, and showed improved performance compared to model simulations assuming a binary framework of only areas of live and dead overstory. Cumulative growing season ecosystem-scale ET fluxes were 8 - 29% greater using the multicohort approach during years in which beetle attacks occurred, highlighting the importance of including compensatory ecological mechanism in ET models.

  14. A participatory systems approach to modeling social, economic, and ecological components of bioenergy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchholz, Thomas S.; Volk, Timothy A.; Luzadis, Valerie A.

    2007-01-01

    Availability of and access to useful energy is a crucial factor for maintaining and improving human well-being. Looming scarcities and increasing awareness of environmental, economic, and social impacts of conventional sources of non-renewable energy have focused attention on renewable energy sources, including biomass. The complex interactions of social, economic, and ecological factors among the bioenergy system components of feedstock supply, conversion technology, and energy allocation have been a major obstacle to the broader development of bioenergy systems. For widespread implementation of bioenergy to occur there is a need for an integrated approach to model the social, economic, and ecological interactions associated with bioenergy. Such models can serve as a planning and evaluation tool to help decide when, where, and how bioenergy systems can contribute to development. One approach to integrated modeling is by assessing the sustainability of a bioenergy system. The evolving nature of sustainability can be described by an adaptive systems approach using general systems principles. Discussing these principles reveals that participation of stakeholders in all components of a bioenergy system is a crucial factor for sustainability. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) is an effective tool to implement this approach. This approach would enable decision-makers to evaluate bioenergy systems for sustainability in a participatory, transparent, timely, and informed manner

  15. Ecological approaches to the prevention of unintentional injuries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John P. Allegrante

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available

    Background: Injury as a cause of significant morbidity and mortality has remained fairly stable in countries with developed economies. Although injury prevention often is conceptualised as a biomedical construct, such a reductionist perspective overlooks the importance of the psychological, environmental, and sociocultural conditions as contributing factors to injury and its consequences. This paper describes the potential of the ecological model for understanding the antecedent causes of unintentional injuries and guiding injury prevention approaches. We review the origins and conceptualise the elements of the ecological model and conclude with some examples of applications of ecological approaches to the prevention of unintentional injury and promotion of community safety.

    Methods: A review of the English-language literature on the conceptualization of ecological models in public health and injury prevention, including the application of the ecological model in the prevention of falls and road traffic injuries and in the community safety promotion movement.

    Results: Three dimensions are important in social-ecological systems that comprise key determinants of injuries: 1 the individual and his or her behaviour, 2 the physical environment, and 3 the social environment. Social and environmental determinants have profound impact on population health and in the causation of injuries.

    Conclusions: Social and environmental determinants of injury should be studied with the same energy, urgency, and intellectual rigor as physical determinants. Application of the ecological model in injury prevention shows the most promise in falls injury prevention, road traffic injury prevention, and community safety promotion.

  16. Reframing family-centred obesity prevention using the Family Ecological Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davison, Kirsten K; Jurkowski, Janine M; Lawson, Hal A

    2013-10-01

    According to the Family Ecological Model (FEM), parenting behaviours are shaped by the contexts in which families are embedded. In the present study, we utilize the FEM to guide a mixed-methods community assessment and summarize the results. Additionally, we discuss the utility of the FEM and outline possible improvements. Using a cross-sectional design, qualitative and quantitative methods were used to examine the ecologies of parents’ cognitions and behaviours specific to children’s diet, physical activity and screen-based behaviours. Results were mapped onto constructs outlined in the FEM. The study took place in five Head Start centres in a small north-eastern city. The community assessment was part of a larger study to develop and evaluate a family-centred obesity prevention programme for low-income families. Participants included eighty-nine low-income parents/caregivers of children enrolled in Head Start. Parents reported a broad range of factors affecting their parenting cognitions and behaviours. Intrafamilial factors included educational and cultural backgrounds, family size and a lack of social support from partners. Organizational factors included staff stability at key organizations, a lack of service integration and differing school routines. Community factors included social connectedness to neighbours/friends, shared norms around parenting and the availability of safe public housing and play spaces. Policy- and media-related factors included requirements of public assistance programmes, back-to-work policies and children’s exposure to food advertisements. Based on these findings, the FEM was refined to create an evidence-based,temporally structured logic model to support and guide family-centred research in childhood obesity prevention.

  17. Ecological operation for Three Gorges Reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-xian Guo

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The traditional operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir has mainly focused on water for flood control, power generation, navigation, water supply, and recreation, and given less attention to the negative impacts of reservoir operation on the river ecosystem. In order to reduce the negative influence of reservoir operation, ecological operation of the reservoir should be studied with a focus on maintaining a healthy river ecosystem. This study considered ecological operation targets, including maintaining the river environmental flow and protecting the spawning and reproduction of the Chinese sturgeon and four major Chinese carps. Using flow data from 1900 to 2006 at the Yichang gauging station as the control station data for the Yangtze River, the minimal and optimal river environmental flows were analyzed, and eco-hydrological targets for the Chinese sturgeon and four major Chinese carps in the Yangtze River were calculated. This paper proposes a reservoir ecological operation model, which comprehensively considers flood control, power generation, navigation, and the ecological environment. Three typical periods, wet, normal, and dry years, were selected, and the particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to analyze the model. The results show that ecological operation modes have different effects on the economic benefit of the hydropower station, and the reservoir ecological operation model can simulate the flood pulse for the requirements of spawning of the Chinese sturgeon and four major Chinese carps. According to the results, by adopting a suitable re-operation scheme, the hydropower benefit of the reservoir will not decrease dramatically while the ecological demand is met. The results provide a reference for designing reasonable operation schemes for the Three Gorges Reservoir.

  18. An Integrated Approach to Modelling the Economy-Society-Ecology System in Urbanization Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunqiang Liu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization has become a key part of social and economic progress in the 21st Century, but achieving healthy and safe urban development has a long way to go for many developed and developing countries. Urbanization has been recognized as a complex ecosystem which is affected by economic, social, and ecological factors. With this in mind, this paper looks at many factors to first evaluate based on the matter-element (ME method and then model an Economy-Society-Ecology (ESE subsystem using a hybrid method by a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP, and then by using the entropy method (EM to determine the relevant index weights. To avoid subjectivity when defining the model’s boundaries, the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS is introduced. Then, a coupling coordination degree model focusing on the degree of coordination in the ESE subsystem is established. Panel data collected from 2003 to 2012 for Chengdu, China, is then simulated to analyze the development process. The results show that: (1 The quality of urbanization continues to improve and the phasic features are presented; (2 The sensitivity analysis of subsystem weight shown that it had less effect on the coupling coordinated system; (3 The coordination in the ESE subsystem has also improved. However, the development rate of the economic subsystem is greater than that of the societal and ecological subsystem. The approach used here therefore, is shown to provide a promising basis for policy-making to support healthy urban development.

  19. Missing ecology: integrating ecological perspectives with the social-ecological system framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Graham Epstein

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The social-ecological systems framework was designed to provide a common research tool for interdisciplinary investigations of social-ecological systems. However, its origin in institutional studies of the commons belies its interdisciplinary ambitions and highlights its relatively limited attention to ecology and natural scientific knowledge. This paper considers the biophysical components of the framework and its epistemological foundations as it relates to the incorporation of knowledge from the natural sciences. It finds that the mixture of inductive and deductive reasoning associated with socially-oriented investigations of these systems is lacking on the ecological side, which relies upon induction alone. As a result the paper proposes the addition of a seventh core sub-system to the social-ecological systems framework, ecological rules, which would allow scholars to explicitly incorporate knowledge from the natural sciences for deductive reasoning. The paper shows, through an instructive case study, how the addition of ecological rules can provide a more nuanced description of the factors that contribute to outcomes in social-ecological systems.

  20. The Other May Simply Live: Ecological Design as Environmental Justice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Eisenstein

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available As a global consensus continues to form about the gravity of the ecological risks facing the world in the new century, a smaller, parallel consensus about the pivotal role to be played by ecological designers and planners has also emerged. Few observers dispute the basic idea that the physical design of the built environment is a critical element of an ecologically healthy civilisation. As such, the planners and designers who focus on holistic, place-based strategies for creating those environments and promoting the long-term protection of ecosystems have much to contribute to the larger debate over the meaning and practice of sustainability. Because their role is potentially so important, it matters how ecological designers and planners conceptualise and present their work to the larger society. In particular, addressing a subtle, conceptual divide between ecological design and environmental justice concerns should be a priority. Far from being solely the province of New Age escapists or idiosyncratic, wealthy clients as it is often caricatured, ecological design practice is in fact critical to confronting the harsh realities of toxic exposure, air pollution, and water contamination that beset disadvantaged communities. After pointing out the key physical and conceptual links between ecological design and environmental justice, this paper argues that landscape architects do not sufficiently emphasise the human impacts of ecological degradation resulting from unsustainable design. It goes on to identify two specific analytical tools (ecological economics and a modified form of ecological footprint analysis that can help the profession make this case. A greater effort to do so would help to expand the influence of ecological landscape design in both the global debates about sustainability and in localised realms of implementation.

  1. Modeling basic creep in concrete at early-age under compressive and tensile loading

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hilaire, Adrien, E-mail: adrien.hilaire@ens-cachan.fr [ENS Cachan/CNRS UMR8535/UPMC/PRES UniverSud Paris, Cachan (France); Benboudjema, Farid; Darquennes, Aveline; Berthaud, Yves [ENS Cachan/CNRS UMR8535/UPMC/PRES UniverSud Paris, Cachan (France); Nahas, Georges [ENS Cachan/CNRS UMR8535/UPMC/PRES UniverSud Paris, Cachan (France); Institut de radioprotection et de sureté nucléaire, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France)

    2014-04-01

    A numerical model has been developed to predict early age cracking for massive concrete structures, and especially concrete nuclear containment vessels. Major phenomena are included: hydration, heat diffusion, autogenous and thermal shrinkage, creep and cracking. Since studied structures are massive, drying is not taken into account. Such modeling requires the identification of several material parameters. Literature data is used to validate the basic creep model. A massive wall, representative of a concrete nuclear containment, is simulated; predicted cracking is consistent with observation and is found highly sensitive to the creep phenomenon.

  2. Ecological aspects influencing the implementation of inclusive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Keywords: Assessment and Support Strategy, barriers to learning, ecological model, identification, inclusive ..... impedes the management of these learners in the mainstream schools. ..... An ecological systems theory perspective on youth.

  3. SRS ECOLOGY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION DOCUMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wike, L; Doug Martin, D; Eric Nelson, E; Nancy Halverson, N; John Mayer, J; Michael Paller, M; Rodney Riley, R; Michael Serrato, M

    2006-03-01

    The SRS Ecology Environmental Information Document (EEID) provides a source of information on the ecology of Savannah River Site (SRS). The SRS is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)--owned property on the upper Atlantic Coastal Plain of South Carolina, centered approximately 40 kilometers (25 miles) southeast of Augusta, Georgia. The entire site was designated a National Environmental Research Park in 1972 by the Atomic Energy Commission, the predecessor of DOE. This document summarizes and synthesizes ecological research and monitoring conducted on the three main types of ecosystems found at SRS: terrestrial, wetland and aquatic. It also summarizes the available information on the threatened and endangered species found on the Savannah River Site. SRS is located along the Savannah River and encompasses an area of 80,267 hectares (310 square miles) in three South Carolina counties. It contains diverse habitats, flora, and fauna. Habitats include upland terrestrial areas, wetlands, streams, reservoirs, and the adjacent Savannah River. These diverse habitats support a variety of plants and animals, including many commercially or recreationally valuable species and several rare, threatened, or endangered species. Soils are the basic terrestrial resource, influencing the development of terrestrial biological communities. Many different soils exist on the SRS, from hydric to well-drained, and from sand to clay. In general, SRS soils are predominantly well-drained loamy sands.

  4. Quantifying chaos for ecological stoichiometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Jorge; Januário, Cristina; Martins, Nuno; Sardanyés, Josep

    2010-09-01

    The theory of ecological stoichiometry considers ecological interactions among species with different chemical compositions. Both experimental and theoretical investigations have shown the importance of species composition in the outcome of the population dynamics. A recent study of a theoretical three-species food chain model considering stoichiometry [B. Deng and I. Loladze, Chaos 17, 033108 (2007)] shows that coexistence between two consumers predating on the same prey is possible via chaos. In this work we study the topological and dynamical measures of the chaotic attractors found in such a model under ecological relevant parameters. By using the theory of symbolic dynamics, we first compute the topological entropy associated with unimodal Poincaré return maps obtained by Deng and Loladze from a dimension reduction. With this measure we numerically prove chaotic competitive coexistence, which is characterized by positive topological entropy and positive Lyapunov exponents, achieved when the first predator reduces its maximum growth rate, as happens at increasing δ1. However, for higher values of δ1 the dynamics become again stable due to an asymmetric bubble-like bifurcation scenario. We also show that a decrease in the efficiency of the predator sensitive to prey's quality (increasing parameter ζ) stabilizes the dynamics. Finally, we estimate the fractal dimension of the chaotic attractors for the stoichiometric ecological model.

  5. Variance, Violence, and Democracy: A Basic Microeconomic Model of Terrorism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John A. Sautter

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Much of the debate surrounding contemporary studies of terrorism focuses upon transnational terrorism. However, historical and contemporary evidence suggests that domestic terrorism is a more prevalent and pressing concern. A formal microeconomic model of terrorism is utilized here to understand acts of political violence in a domestic context within the domain of democratic governance.This article builds a very basic microeconomic model of terrorist decision making to hypothesize how a democratic government might influence the sorts of strategies that terrorists use. Mathematical models have been used to explain terrorist behavior in the past. However, the bulk of inquires in this area have only focused on the relationship between terrorists and the government, or amongst terrorists themselves. Central to the interpretation of the terrorist conflict presented here is the idea that voters (or citizens are also one of the important determinants of how a government will respond to acts of terrorism.

  6. A COMPARISON OF BASIC AND EXTENDED MARKOWITZ MODEL ON CROATIAN CAPITAL MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruna Škarica

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Markowitz' mean - variance model for portfolio selection, first introduced in H.M. Markowitz' 1952 article, is one of the best known models in finance. However, the Markowitz model is based on many assumptions about financial markets and investors, which do not coincide with the real world. One of these assumptions is that there are no taxes or transaction costs, when in reality all financial products are subject to both taxes and transaction costs – such as brokerage fees. In this paper, we consider an extension of the standard portfolio problem which includes transaction costs that arise when constructing an investment portfolio. Finally, we compare both the extension of the Markowitz' model, including transaction costs, and the basic model on the example of the Croatian capital market.

  7. Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

    2017-07-01

    Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Towards an Agro-Industrial Ecology: A review of nutrient flow modelling and assessment tools in agro-food systems at the local scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez-Mena, Hugo; Nesme, Thomas; Pellerin, Sylvain

    2016-02-01

    Improvement in nutrient recycling in agriculture is essential to maintain food production while minimising nutrient pollution of the environment. For this purpose, understanding and modelling nutrient cycles in food and related agro-industrial systems is a crucial task. Although nutrient management has been addressed at the plot and farm scales for many years now in the agricultural sciences, there is a need to upscale these approaches to capture the additional drivers of nutrient cycles that may occur at the local, i.e. district, scale. Industrial ecology principles provide sound bases to analyse nutrient cycling in complex systems. However, since agro-food social-ecological systems have specific ecological and social dimensions, we argue that a new field, referred to as "Agro-Industrial Ecology", is needed to study these systems. In this paper, we review the literature on nutrient cycling in complex social-ecological systems that can provide a basis for Agro-Industrial Ecology. We identify and describe three major approaches: Environmental Assessment tools, Stock and Flow Analysis methods and Agent-based models. We then discuss their advantages and drawbacks for assessing and modelling nutrient cycles in agro-food systems in terms of their purpose and scope, object representation and time-spatial dynamics. We finally argue that combining stock-flow methods with both agent-based models and environmental impact assessment tools is a promising way to analyse the role of economic agents on nutrient flows and losses and to explore scenarios that better close the nutrient cycles at the local scale. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Distribution of phytoplankton functional types in high-nitrate low-chlorophyll waters in a new diagnostic ecological indicator model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palacz, Artur; St. John, Michael; Brevin, R.J.W.

    2013-01-01

    Modeling and monitoring plankton functional types (PFTs) is challenged by insufficient amount of field measurements to ground-truth both plankton models and bio-optical algorithms. In this study, we combine remote sensing data and a dynamic plankton model to simulate an ecologically-sound spatial...

  10. Combining statistical inference and decisions in ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Perry J.; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2016-01-01

    Statistical decision theory (SDT) is a sub-field of decision theory that formally incorporates statistical investigation into a decision-theoretic framework to account for uncertainties in a decision problem. SDT provides a unifying analysis of three types of information: statistical results from a data set, knowledge of the consequences of potential choices (i.e., loss), and prior beliefs about a system. SDT links the theoretical development of a large body of statistical methods including point estimation, hypothesis testing, and confidence interval estimation. The theory and application of SDT have mainly been developed and published in the fields of mathematics, statistics, operations research, and other decision sciences, but have had limited exposure in ecology. Thus, we provide an introduction to SDT for ecologists and describe its utility for linking the conventionally separate tasks of statistical investigation and decision making in a single framework. We describe the basic framework of both Bayesian and frequentist SDT, its traditional use in statistics, and discuss its application to decision problems that occur in ecology. We demonstrate SDT with two types of decisions: Bayesian point estimation, and an applied management problem of selecting a prescribed fire rotation for managing a grassland bird species. Central to SDT, and decision theory in general, are loss functions. Thus, we also provide basic guidance and references for constructing loss functions for an SDT problem.

  11. DESCRIPTION OF THE ORGANIZATIONAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROCESSES ON THE GROUND OF THE BASIC MODEL OF THE CYCLE OF REORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gazaryan Robert Kamoevich

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this scientific research is application of the basic model of interaction between phases of a cycle of reorganization of organizational and technological processes underway at industrial enterprises. The authors describe interactions between all six phases of the process of reorganization within the framework of the basic model of a cycle that contemplates organizational and technological processes. Engineering studies are necessary to check for the feasibility of reorganization of industrial enterprises and application of results extracted from the design documentation with a view to reorganization of production activities and construction operations. Upon completion of the decision-making process concerning the need for reorganization in accordance with the basic model of interaction between phases, there occurs restructuring that incorporates processes of design and construction. The authors have demonstrated that reorganization of the basic model cycle should be used in the design of organizational and technological processes with a view to the integrated consideration of reorganization of enterprises in order to comprehend and improve the efficiency of reorganization at each stage, as well as the control over the reorganization of a construction facility.

  12. [Tourism ecological security early warning of Zhangjiajie, China based on the improved TOPSIS method and the grey GM (1,1)model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Mei; Liu, Chun la; Li, Dan; Zhong, Xiao Lin

    2017-11-01

    Tourism ecological security early warning is of great significance both to the coordination of ecological environment protection and tourism industry rapid development in tourism destination, and the sustainable and healthy development of regional social and economy. Firstly, based on the DPSIR model, the tourism ecological security early warning index system of Zhangjiajie was constructed from 5 aspects, which were driving force, pressure, state, impact and response. Then, by using the improved TOPSIS method, the tourism ecological security situation of Zhangjiajie from 2001 to 2014 was analyzed. Lastly, by using the grey GM (1,1) model, the tourism ecological security evolution trend of 2015-2020 was predicted. The results indicated that, on the whole, the close degree of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological security showed a slightly upward trend during 2001-2014, the warning degree was the moderate warning. In terms of each subsystem, warning degree of the driving force system and the pressure system of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological secu-rity were on the rise, which evolved from light warning to heavy warning; warning degree of the state system and the impact system had not changed so much, and had been in the moderate warning; warning degree of the response system was on the decline, which changed from huge warning to no warning during 2001-2014. According to the current development trend, the close degree of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological security would rise further in 2015-2020, and the warning degree would turn from moderate warning into light warning, but the task of coordinating the relationship between tourism development and ecological construction and environmental protection would be still arduous.

  13. Extensive Green Roof Ecological Benefits in Latvia

    OpenAIRE

    Rušenieks, Rihards; Kamenders, Agris

    2013-01-01

    Extensive green roof ecological benefits are studiedin this paper. The research contains a brief explanation aboutgreen roof technology and green roof ecological benefits. Greenroof capability to retain rainwater runoff by accumulating it instorage layers and conducting it back into the atmospherethrough evapotranspiration is studied and modeled. Modeling isdone in Stormwater Management Model 5.0 software. The modelis based on an existing warehouse-type building located in Rigaand hourly Riga...

  14. Statistical physics of community ecology: a cavity solution to MacArthur’s consumer resource model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Advani, Madhu; Bunin, Guy; Mehta, Pankaj

    2018-03-01

    A central question in ecology is to understand the ecological processes that shape community structure. Niche-based theories have emphasized the important role played by competition for maintaining species diversity. Many of these insights have been derived using MacArthur’s consumer resource model (MCRM) or its generalizations. Most theoretical work on the MCRM has focused on small ecosystems with a few species and resources. However theoretical insights derived from small ecosystems many not scale up to large ecosystems with many resources and species because large systems with many interacting components often display new emergent behaviors that cannot be understood or deduced from analyzing smaller systems. To address these shortcomings, we develop a statistical physics inspired cavity method to analyze MCRM when both the number of species and the number of resources is large. Unlike previous work in this limit, our theory addresses resource dynamics and resource depletion and demonstrates that species generically and consistently perturb their environments and significantly modify available ecological niches. We show how our cavity approach naturally generalizes niche theory to large ecosystems by accounting for the effect of collective phenomena on species invasion and ecological stability. Our theory suggests that such phenomena are a generic feature of large, natural ecosystems and must be taken into account when analyzing and interpreting community structure. It also highlights the important role that statistical-physics inspired approaches can play in furthering our understanding of ecology.

  15. Power supply in future: ecological aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hustedt, M.

    2000-01-01

    The most important prerequisites for an ecological supply of energy in the future is the opting out of nuclear energy and the completion of the second and third phase of the socio-ecological tax reform. As a part of our energy will continue to be generated on the basis of fossil fuels in the foreseeable future, it is essential that a radical change takes place in the efficiency of fossil energy engineering. In addition to this, any possible energy-saving potential must be exploited; this includes the new energy-saving law, promoting the modernisation of old buildings and modern energy management (heat insulation, heating engineering, warm water heating etc.). For an ecological power supply the share of renewable energies must be increased to form a major pillar of our power supply. The '100,000-roof' programme of the German federal government and the development programme for near-market renewable energy sources form part of this approach. Energy research should shift its orientation and accelerate the conversion of our power supply: priority should be given to developing energy-saving technologies and renewable energy. Supporting municipalities and public utilities is especially important. This means revising the basic conditions of energy laws so that they assist public utilities to face competition as power utilities. (orig.) [de

  16. Comprehensive basic mathematics

    CERN Document Server

    Veena, GR

    2005-01-01

    Salient Features As per II PUC Basic Mathematics syllabus of Karnataka. Provides an introduction to various basic mathematical techniques and the situations where these could be usefully employed. The language is simple and the material is self-explanatory with a large number of illustrations. Assists the reader in gaining proficiency to solve diverse variety of problems. A special capsule containing a gist and list of formulae titled ''REMEMBER! Additional chapterwise arranged question bank and 3 model papers in a separate section---''EXAMINATION CORNER''.

  17. Philosophical Issues in Ecology: Recent Trends and Future Directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Colyvan

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Philosophy of ecology has been slow to become established as an area of philosophical interest, but it is now receiving considerable attention. This area holds great promise for the advancement of both ecology and the philosophy of science. Insights from the philosophy of science can advance ecology in a number of ways. For example, philosophy can assist with the development of improved models of ecological hypothesis testing and theory choice. Philosophy can also help ecologists understand the role and limitations of mathematical models in ecology. On the other side, philosophy of science will be advanced by having ecological case studies as part of the stock of examples. Ecological case studies can shed light on old philosophical topics as well as raise novel issues for the philosophy of science. For example, understanding theoretical terms such as "biodiversity" is important for scientific reasons, but such terms also carry political importance. Formulating appropriate definitions for such terms is thus not a purely scientific matter, and this may prompt a reevaluation of philosophical accounts of defining theoretical terms. We consider some of the topics currently receiving attention in the philosophy of ecology and other topics in need of attention. Our aim is to prompt further exchange between ecology and philosophy of science and to help set the agenda for future work in the philosophy of ecology. The topics covered include: the role of mathematical models, environmental problem formulation, biodiversity, and environmental ethics.

  18. Interdisciplinary Industrial Ecology Education: Recommendations for an Inclusive Pedagogical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Archana

    2009-01-01

    Industrial ecology education is being developed and delivered predominantly within the domains of engineering and management. Such an approach could prove somewhat limiting to the broader goal of developing industrial ecology as an integrated knowledge base inclusive of diverse disciplines, contributing to sustainable development. This paper…

  19. THE MAIN AREAS OF ECOLOGICAL TOURISM IN THE FRAMEWORK OF RATIONAL NATURE MANAGEMENT IN MODERN ECONOMIES (THE CASE OF THE REPUBLIC OF ALBANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariya F. Mizintseva

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the basic resources and the vectors of ecological tourism development in Albania as a new region for eco travel, previously not popular but having great prospects for development through mainstreaming the rational nature management. The authors highlight the impact of tourism development on the environment, the role of ecological tourism in sustainable development of the countries of the world, the value relevance of environmental management tourism and its basic principles. The article also describes the prerequisites, trends and prospects of development of ecological tourism in Albania, the main objectives for optimization and further efficient formation of ecological tourism as a basic direction in the tourism sphere of the country. The authors give recommendations for the promotion of ecotourism in the country as a key element of tourism business; the active promotion of ecotourism of Albania for Russian tourists; focusing attention on rural and mountain tourism as ecotourism areas; intensification of marketing tools aimed at increasing awareness of Albania as a brand in the world of tourism; finding ways of legal regulation of tourist activities in the country.

  20. Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Muñoz

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Ecological Niche Models (ENMs are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models. Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles. Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural

  1. Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Xavier; Felicísimo, Ángel M.

    2016-01-01

    Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models). Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude) were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species) and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles). Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural parks. PMID

  2. Terrestrial population models for ecological risk assessment: A state-of-the-art review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emlen, J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Few attempts have been made to formulate models for predicting impacts of xenobiotic chemicals on wildlife populations. However, considerable effort has been invested in wildlife optimal exploitation models. Because death from intoxication has a similar effect on population dynamics as death by harvesting, these management models are applicable to ecological risk assessment. An underlying Leslie-matrix bookkeeping formulation is widely applicable to vertebrate wildlife populations. Unfortunately, however, the various submodels that track birth, death, and dispersal rates as functions of the physical, chemical, and biotic environment are by their nature almost inevitably highly species- and locale-specific. Short-term prediction of one-time chemical applications requires only information on mortality before and after contamination. In such cases a simple matrix formulation may be adequate for risk assessment. But generally, risk must be projected over periods of a generation or more. This precludes generic protocols for risk assessment and also the ready and inexpensive predictions of a chemical's influence on a given population. When designing and applying models for ecological risk assessment at the population level, the endpoints (output) of concern must be carefully and rigorously defined. The most easily accessible and appropriate endpoints are (1) pseudoextinction (the frequency or probability of a population falling below a prespecified density), and (2) temporal mean population density. Spatial and temporal extent of predicted changes must be clearly specified a priori to avoid apparent contradictions and confusion.

  3. School Culture, Basic Psychological Needs, Intrinsic Motivation and Academic Achievement: Testing a Casual Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahim Badri

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Culture is s common system of believes, values and artifacts that the members of a society use it in their relations, and it transfers from one generation to another. The school culture is a system of norms, meanings and values between school members. One of STD (self-determination theory components is basic psychological needs that emphasizes on Relatedness, Competence and Autonomy to accomplish the motivation. Motivation involves the processes that energize, direct, and sustain behavior. It seems that school culture, basic psychological needs and motivation has immense effect on academic achievement. The purpose of the present research was to examine the relation between students' perceived school culture, basic psychological needs, intrinsic motivation and academic achievement in a causal model. 296 high school students (159 females and 137 males in Tabriz, north - west of Iran, participated in this research and completed the students' perceived school culture questionnaire based on Hofstede's cultural dimensions (femininity, uncertainty avoidance, collectivism and power distance, basic psychological needs and intrinsic motivation. The results of the path analysis showed that fulfillment of basic psychological needs and intrinsic motivation has positive effect on academic achievement. Uncertainty avoidance and power distance have also negative effect on fulfillment of psychological needs, but the influence of femininity on this variable was positive. Also, collectivism has no significant effect on it. In general, the findings showed that if school culture supports students' autonomy, they will experience fulfillment of their basic psychological needs, and attain higher intrinsic motivation and academic achievement.

  4. Mathematical modeling in economics, ecology and the environment

    CERN Document Server

    Hritonenko, Natali

    2013-01-01

    Updated to textbook form by popular demand, this second edition discusses diverse mathematical models used in economics, ecology, and the environmental sciences with emphasis on control and optimization. It is intended for graduate and upper-undergraduate course use, however, applied mathematicians, industry practitioners, and a vast number of interdisciplinary academics will find the presentation highly useful. Core topics of this text are: ·         Economic growth and technological development ·         Population dynamics and human impact on the environment ·         Resource extraction and scarcity ·         Air and water contamination ·         Rational management of the economy and environment ·         Climate change and global dynamics The step-by-step approach taken is problem-based and easy to follow. The authors aptly demonstrate that the same models may be used to describe different economic and environmental processes and that similar invest...

  5. Dictionary of applied ecology. English-German, German-English

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The book comprises about 14.000 terms of the following subject fields: Fundamentals (ecological factors, ecosystems and mark hazard factors, dynamics of ecosystems), environmental toxicology, environmental analysis (chemical methods of analysis, biological indicators), models and forecasts for ecosystems, environmental technology (waste water treatment, air pollution abatement, soil regeneration, landfill reclamation, recycling technologies, low-waste technologies), special ecological problems (forest ecology, landscape ecology), and environmental law. (orig.) [de

  6. Interpreting the process behind endemism in China by integrating the phylogeography and ecological niche models of the Stachyridopsis ruficeps.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huatao Liu

    Full Text Available An area of endemism (AOE is a complex expression of the ecological and evolutionary history of a species. Here we aim to address the principal drivers of avian diversification in shaping patterns of endemism in China by integrating genetic, ecological, and distributional data on the Red-headed Tree Babbler (Stachyridopsis ruficeps, which is distributed across the eastern Himalayas and south China. We sequenced two mtDNA markers from 182 individuals representing all three of the primary AOEs in China. Phylogenetic inferences were used to reconstruct intraspecific phylogenetic relationships. Divergence time and population demography were estimated to gain insight into the evolutionary history of the species. We used Ecological niche modeling to predict species' distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and in the present. Finally, we also used two quantitative tests, an identity test and background test to assess the similarity of ecological niche preferences between adjacent lineages. We found five primary reciprocally monophyletic clades, typically separated approximately 0.2-2.27 MYA, of which three were deeply isolated endemic lineages located in the three AOEs. All phylogroups were detected to have undergone population expansion during the past 0.3 MY. Niche models showed discontinuous habitats, and there were three barriers of less suitable habitat during the LGM and in modern times. Ecoclimatic niches may diverge significantly even over recent timescales, as each phylogroup had a unique distribution, and unique niche characteristics. Vicariant events associated with geographical and ecological barriers, glacial refuges and ecological differentiation may be the main drivers forming the pattern of endemism in China.

  7. The causal pie model: an epidemiological method applied to evolutionary biology and ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wensink, Maarten; Westendorp, Rudi G J; Baudisch, Annette

    2014-05-01

    A general concept for thinking about causality facilitates swift comprehension of results, and the vocabulary that belongs to the concept is instrumental in cross-disciplinary communication. The causal pie model has fulfilled this role in epidemiology and could be of similar value in evolutionary biology and ecology. In the causal pie model, outcomes result from sufficient causes. Each sufficient cause is made up of a "causal pie" of "component causes". Several different causal pies may exist for the same outcome. If and only if all component causes of a sufficient cause are present, that is, a causal pie is complete, does the outcome occur. The effect of a component cause hence depends on the presence of the other component causes that constitute some causal pie. Because all component causes are equally and fully causative for the outcome, the sum of causes for some outcome exceeds 100%. The causal pie model provides a way of thinking that maps into a number of recurrent themes in evolutionary biology and ecology: It charts when component causes have an effect and are subject to natural selection, and how component causes affect selection on other component causes; which partitions of outcomes with respect to causes are feasible and useful; and how to view the composition of a(n apparently homogeneous) population. The diversity of specific results that is directly understood from the causal pie model is a test for both the validity and the applicability of the model. The causal pie model provides a common language in which results across disciplines can be communicated and serves as a template along which future causal analyses can be made.

  8. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model - A Map-Based Multicriteria Ecological, Economic, and Community Land-Use Planning Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labiosa, William B.; Bernknopf, Richard; Hearn, Paul; Hogan, Dianna; Strong, David; Pearlstine, Leonard; Mathie, Amy M.; Wein, Anne M.; Gillen, Kevin; Wachter, Susan

    2009-01-01

    The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype is a regional land-use planning Web tool that integrates ecological, economic, and social information and values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multicriteria evaluation framework that builds on geographic information system-based (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to regional land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The EPM uses both economics (monetized) and multiattribute utility (nonmonetized) approaches to valuing these endpoints and consequences. This hybrid approach represents a methodological middle ground between rigorous economic and ecological/ environmental scientific approaches. The EPM sacrifices some degree of economic- and ecological-forecasting precision to gain methodological transparency, spatial explicitness, and transferability, while maintaining credibility. After all, even small steps in the direction of including ecosystem services evaluation are an improvement over current land-use planning practice (Boyd and Wainger, 2003). There are many participants involved in land-use decision-making in South Florida, including local, regional, State, and Federal agencies, developers, environmental groups, agricultural groups, and other stakeholders (South Florida Regional Planning Council, 2003, 2004). The EPM's multicriteria evaluation framework is designed to cut across the objectives and knowledge bases of all of these participants. This approach places fundamental importance on social equity and stakeholder participation in land-use decision-making, but makes no attempt to determine normative socially 'optimal' land-use plans. The EPM is thus a map-based set of evaluation tools for planners and stakeholders to use in their deliberations of what is 'best', considering a balancing of disparate interests within a regional perspective. Although

  9. Hidden Markov models for sequence analysis: extension and analysis of the basic method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hughey, Richard; Krogh, Anders Stærmose

    1996-01-01

    -maximization training procedure is relatively straight-forward. In this paper,we review the mathematical extensions and heuristics that move the method from the theoreticalto the practical. Then, we experimentally analyze the effectiveness of model regularization,dynamic model modification, and optimization strategies......Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are a highly effective means of modeling a family of unalignedsequences or a common motif within a set of unaligned sequences. The trained HMM can then beused for discrimination or multiple alignment. The basic mathematical description of an HMMand its expectation....... Finally it is demonstrated on the SH2domain how a domain can be found from unaligned sequences using a special model type. Theexperimental work was completed with the aid of the Sequence Alignment and Modeling softwaresuite....

  10. [Temporal and spatial heterogeneity analysis of optimal value of sensitive parameters in ecological process model: The BIOME-BGC model as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yi Zhe; Zhang, Ting Long; Liu, Qiu Yu; Li, Ying

    2018-01-01

    The ecological process models are powerful tools for studying terrestrial ecosystem water and carbon cycle at present. However, there are many parameters for these models, and weather the reasonable values of these parameters were taken, have important impact on the models simulation results. In the past, the sensitivity and the optimization of model parameters were analyzed and discussed in many researches. But the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal parameters is less concerned. In this paper, the BIOME-BGC model was used as an example. In the evergreen broad-leaved forest, deciduous broad-leaved forest and C3 grassland, the sensitive parameters of the model were selected by constructing the sensitivity judgment index with two experimental sites selected under each vegetation type. The objective function was constructed by using the simulated annealing algorithm combined with the flux data to obtain the monthly optimal values of the sensitive parameters at each site. Then we constructed the temporal heterogeneity judgment index, the spatial heterogeneity judgment index and the temporal and spatial heterogeneity judgment index to quantitatively analyze the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal values of the model sensitive parameters. The results showed that the sensitivity of BIOME-BGC model parameters was different under different vegetation types, but the selected sensitive parameters were mostly consistent. The optimal values of the sensitive parameters of BIOME-BGC model mostly presented time-space heterogeneity to different degrees which varied with vegetation types. The sensitive parameters related to vegetation physiology and ecology had relatively little temporal and spatial heterogeneity while those related to environment and phenology had generally larger temporal and spatial heterogeneity. In addition, the temporal heterogeneity of the optimal values of the model sensitive parameters showed a significant linear correlation

  11. BASIC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Pelle Guldborg; Schmidt, Karsten

    2017-01-01

    De sidste 10 år har vi været vidner til opkomsten af et nyt evidensbaseret policy paradigme, Behavioural Public Policy (BPP), der søger at integrere teoretiske og metodiske indsigter fra adfærdsvidenskaberne i offentlig politikudvikling. Arbejdet med BPP har dog båret præg af, at være usystematisk...... BPP. Tilgangen består dels af den overordnede proces-model BASIC og dels af et iboende framework, ABCD, der er en model for systematisk adfærdsanalyse, udvikling, test og implementering af adfærdsrettede løsningskoncepter. Den samlede model gør det muligt for forskere såvel som offentligt ansatte...

  12. Ecological effects of exposure to enhanced levels of ionizing radiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geras'kin, Stanislav A

    2016-10-01

    Irradiation of plants and animals can result in disruption of ecological relationships between the components of ecosystems. Such effects may act as triggers of perturbation and lead to consequences that may differ essentially from expected ones based on effects observed at the organismal level. Considerable differences in ecology and niches occupied by different species lead to substantial differences in doses of ionizing radiation absorbed by species, even when they all are present in the same environment at the same time. This is especially evident for contamination with α-emitting radionuclides. Radioactive contamination can be considered an ecological factor that is able to modify the resistance in natural populations. However, there are radioecological situations when elevated radioresistance does not evolve or persist. The complexity and non-linearity of the structure and functioning of ecosystems can lead to unexpected consequences of stress effects, which would appear harmless if they were assessed within the narrower context of organism-based traditional radioecology. Therefore, the use of ecological knowledge is essential for understanding responses of populations and ecosystems to radiation exposure. Integration of basic ecological principles in the design and implementation of radioecological research is essential for predicting radiation effects under rapidly changing environmental conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Political ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strohm, H.

    1979-01-01

    Using facts and examples, this didactically structures textbook gives an insight into the extent and consequences of the damage to the environment, with the subjects - fundamentals of ecology; - population and food problems; - the energy problem; - economic growth; scarcity of resources, recycling; - ground, water, and air pollution, - city and traffic problems; - work protection and medical care; - political alternatives and 'soft technologies'. The analysis of the political and economic reasons is combined with social and technical alternatives from which demands to be made and measures to be taken can be derived for individuals, citizens' interest groups, political groups and trade unions. Teaching models intend to help teachers to work on specific problems of ecology. (orig.) [de

  14. Basic Restriction and Reference Level in Anatomically-based Japanese Models for Low-Frequency Electric and Magnetic Field Exposures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takano, Yukinori; Hirata, Akimasa; Fujiwara, Osamu

    Human exposed to electric and/or magnetic fields at low frequencies may cause direct effect such as nerve stimulation and excitation. Therefore, basic restriction is regulated in terms of induced current density in the ICNIRP guidelines and in-situ electric field in the IEEE standard. External electric or magnetic field which does not produce induced quantities exceeding the basic restriction is used as a reference level. The relationship between the basic restriction and reference level for low-frequency electric and magnetic fields has been investigated using European anatomic models, while limited for Japanese model, especially for electric field exposures. In addition, that relationship has not well been discussed. In the present study, we calculated the induced quantities in anatomic Japanese male and female models exposed to electric and magnetic fields at reference level. A quasi static finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method was applied to analyze this problem. As a result, spatially averaged induced current density was found to be more sensitive to averaging algorithms than that of in-situ electric field. For electric and magnetic field exposure at the ICNIRP reference level, the maximum values of the induced current density for different averaging algorithm were smaller than the basic restriction for most cases. For exposures at the reference level in the IEEE standard, the maximum electric fields in the brain were larger than the basic restriction in the brain while smaller for the spinal cord and heart.

  15. Basic Definitions and Concepts of Systems Approach, Mathematical Modeling and Information Technologies in Sports Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    А. Лопатьєв

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective is to systematize and adapt the basic definitions and concepts of the systems approach, mathematical modeling and information technologies to sports science. Materials and methods. The research has studied the availability of appropriate terms in shooting sports, which would meet the requirements of modern sports science. It has examined the compliance of the shooting sports training program for children and youth sports schools, the Olympic reserve specialized children and youth schools, schools of higher sports skills, and sports educational institutions with the modern requirements and principles. Research results. The paper suggests the basic definitions adapted to the requirements of technical sports and sports science. The research has thoroughly analyzed the shooting sports training program for children and youth sports schools, the Olympic reserve specialized children and youth schools, schools of higher sports skills, and sports educational institutions. The paper offers options to improve the training program in accordance with the modern tendencies of training athletes.  Conclusions. The research suggests to systematize and adapt the basic definitions and concepts of the systems approach, mathematical modeling and information technologies using the example of technical sports.

  16. Quantum mechanical analogy for solving a competitive coexistence model in ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wio, H.S.; Kuperman, M.N.; Haeften, B. von

    1994-07-01

    We have studied an ecological system of three species: a strong and a weak one, competing for a single food resource, modelled as a reaction-diffusion process. An exact analytical solution has been found through a quantum mechanical analogy. Such solution indicates that in certain situations the classical results on extinction and coexistence of Lotka-Volterra type equations are no longer valid, essentially, as a consequence of the weak species mobility. A stability analysis of this solution against changes in different parameters has been carried out. (author). 19 refs, 5 figs

  17. Diversity spurs diversification in ecological communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calcagno, Vincent; Jarne, Philippe; Loreau, Michel; Mouquet, Nicolas; David, Patrice

    2017-06-01

    Diversity is a fundamental, yet threatened, property of ecological systems. The idea that diversity can itself favour diversification, in an autocatalytic process, is very appealing but remains controversial. Here, we study a generalized model of ecological communities and investigate how the level of initial diversity influences the possibility of evolutionary diversification. We show that even simple models of intra- and inter-specific ecological interactions can predict a positive effect of diversity on diversification: adaptive radiations may require a threshold number of species before kicking-off. We call this phenomenon DDAR (diversity-dependent adaptive radiations) and identify mathematically two distinct pathways connecting diversity to diversification, involving character displacement and the positive diversity-productivity relationship. Our results may explain observed delays in adaptive radiations at the macroscale and diversification patterns reported in experimental microbial communities, and shed new light on the dynamics of ecological diversity, the diversity-dependence of diversification rates, and the consequences of biodiversity loss.

  18. Diversity spurs diversification in ecological communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calcagno, Vincent; Jarne, Philippe; Loreau, Michel; Mouquet, Nicolas; David, Patrice

    2017-06-09

    Diversity is a fundamental, yet threatened, property of ecological systems. The idea that diversity can itself favour diversification, in an autocatalytic process, is very appealing but remains controversial. Here, we study a generalized model of ecological communities and investigate how the level of initial diversity influences the possibility of evolutionary diversification. We show that even simple models of intra- and inter-specific ecological interactions can predict a positive effect of diversity on diversification: adaptive radiations may require a threshold number of species before kicking-off. We call this phenomenon DDAR (diversity-dependent adaptive radiations) and identify mathematically two distinct pathways connecting diversity to diversification, involving character displacement and the positive diversity-productivity relationship. Our results may explain observed delays in adaptive radiations at the macroscale and diversification patterns reported in experimental microbial communities, and shed new light on the dynamics of ecological diversity, the diversity-dependence of diversification rates, and the consequences of biodiversity loss.

  19. Ecological modeling for forest management in the Shawnee National Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard G. Thurau; J.F. Fralish; S. Hupe; B. Fitch; A.D. Carver

    2008-01-01

    Land managers of the Shawnee National Forest in southern Illinois are challenged to meet the needs of a diverse populace of stakeholders. By classifying National Forest holdings into management units, U.S. Forest Service personnel can spatially allocate resources and services to meet local management objectives. Ecological Classification Systems predict ecological site...

  20. Culturally compelling strategies for behaviour change: a social ecology model and case study in malaria prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panter-Brick, Catherine; Clarke, Sian E; Lomas, Heather; Pinder, Margaret; Lindsay, Steve W

    2006-06-01

    Behaviour change is notoriously difficult to initiate and sustain, and the reasons why efforts to promote healthy behaviours fail are coming under increasing scrutiny. To be successful, health interventions should build on existing practices, skills and priorities, recognise the constraints on human behaviour, and either feature community mobilisation or target those most receptive to change. Furthermore, interventions should strive to be culturally compelling, not merely culturally appropriate: they must engage local communities and nestle within social and ecological landscapes. In this paper, we propose a social ecology perspective to make explicit the links between intention to change, actual behaviour change, and subsequent health impact, as relating to both theory-based models and practical strategies for triggering behaviour change. A social ecology model focuses attention on the contexts of behaviour when designing, implementing or critically evaluating interventions. As a case study, we reflect on a community-directed intervention in rural Gambia designed to reduce malaria by promoting a relatively simple and low-cost behaviour: repairing holes in mosquito bednets. In phase 1, contextual information on bednet usage, transactions and repairs (the 'social lives' of nets) was documented. In phase 2 (intervention), songs were composed and posters displayed by community members to encourage repairs, creating a sense of ownership and a compelling medium for the transmission of health messages. In phase 3 (evaluation), qualitative and quantitative data showed that household responses were particularly rapid and extensive, with significant increase in bednet repairs (psocial ecology-of behaviour practices that are the bedrock of health interventions.

  1. Ecological Security Pattern Analysis Based on InVEST and Least-Cost Path Model: A Case Study of Dongguan Water Village

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Lin

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The famous “world’s factory” city, Dongguan, like many other places in China, is a typical beneficiary of China’s Reform and Opening-up Policy. However, rapid urban sprawl and economic growth are at the expense of the destruction of the local environment. Therefore, it is of great importance to establish an ecological security network for sustainable development. InVEST models, effective tools to measure sensitivity and intensity of external threats to quantify habitat value, are used to calculate habitat quality of water and land. By combining structural connectivity and the Least-Cost Path model (LCP model, in which corridors are determined based on the minimum accumulative cost path between each critical point, ecological security patterns were calculated. According to the results, the northwest region of Dongguan, having a large quantity of farmlands and water and therefore many corridors and critical patches, is the most essential area in the overall security of ecological environments, which should be protected first. If developed, it should be dominated by eco-tourism and eco-agriculture. We hope that research on the ecological network, which includes critical patches and corridors formed by greenland and rivers, will lead toward better-informed proposals for local urban planning and regional sustainable development.

  2. Partial least squares path modeling basic concepts, methodological issues and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Noonan, Richard

    2017-01-01

    This edited book presents the recent developments in partial least squares-path modeling (PLS-PM) and provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the most advanced research related to PLS-PM. The first section of this book emphasizes the basic concepts and extensions of the PLS-PM method. The second section discusses the methodological issues that are the focus of the recent development of the PLS-PM method. The third part discusses the real world application of the PLS-PM method in various disciplines. The contributions from expert authors in the field of PLS focus on topics such as the factor-based PLS-PM, the perfect match between a model and a mode, quantile composite-based path modeling (QC-PM), ordinal consistent partial least squares (OrdPLSc), non-symmetrical composite-based path modeling (NSCPM), modern view for mediation analysis in PLS-PM, a multi-method approach for identifying and treating unobserved heterogeneity, multigroup analysis (PLS-MGA), the assessment of the common method b...

  3. Development of a generic auto-calibration package for regional ecological modeling and application in the Central Plains of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang; Li, Zhengpeng; Dahal, Devendra; Young, Claudia J.; Schmidt, Gail L.; Liu, Jinxun; Davis, Brian; Sohl, Terry L.; Werner, Jeremy M.; Oeding, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    Process-oriented ecological models are frequently used for predicting potential impacts of global changes such as climate and land-cover changes, which can be useful for policy making. It is critical but challenging to automatically derive optimal parameter values at different scales, especially at regional scale, and validate the model performance. In this study, we developed an automatic calibration (auto-calibration) function for a well-established biogeochemical model—the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS)-Erosion Deposition Carbon Model (EDCM)—using data assimilation technique: the Shuffled Complex Evolution algorithm and a model-inversion R package—Flexible Modeling Environment (FME). The new functionality can support multi-parameter and multi-objective auto-calibration of EDCM at the both pixel and regional levels. We also developed a post-processing procedure for GEMS to provide options to save the pixel-based or aggregated county-land cover specific parameter values for subsequent simulations. In our case study, we successfully applied the updated model (EDCM-Auto) for a single crop pixel with a corn–wheat rotation and a large ecological region (Level II)—Central USA Plains. The evaluation results indicate that EDCM-Auto is applicable at multiple scales and is capable to handle land cover changes (e.g., crop rotations). The model also performs well in capturing the spatial pattern of grain yield production for crops and net primary production (NPP) for other ecosystems across the region, which is a good example for implementing calibration and validation of ecological models with readily available survey data (grain yield) and remote sensing data (NPP) at regional and national levels. The developed platform for auto-calibration can be readily expanded to incorporate other model inversion algorithms and potential R packages, and also be applied to other ecological models.

  4. Development of the Hydrological-Ecological Integrated watershed Flow Model (HEIFLOW): an application to the Heihe River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Zheng, C.; Han, F., Sr.

    2017-12-01

    Physically based and fully-distributed integrated hydrological models (IHMs) can quantitatively depict hydrological processes, both surface and subsurface, with sufficient spatial and temporal details. However, the complexity involved in pre-processing data and setting up models seriously hindered the wider application of IHMs in scientific research and management practice. This study introduces our design and development of Visual HEIFLOW, hereafter referred to as VHF, a comprehensive graphical data processing and modeling system for integrated hydrological simulation. The current version of VHF has been structured to accommodate an IHM named HEIFLOW (Hydrological-Ecological Integrated watershed-scale FLOW model). HEIFLOW is a model being developed by the authors, which has all typical elements of physically based and fully-distributed IHMs. It is based on GSFLOW, a representative integrated surface water-groundwater model developed by USGS. HEIFLOW provides several ecological modules that enable to simulate growth cycle of general vegetation and special plants (maize and populus euphratica). VHF incorporates and streamlines all key steps of the integrated modeling, and accommodates all types of GIS data necessary to hydrological simulation. It provides a GIS-based data processing framework to prepare an IHM for simulations, and has functionalities to flexibly display and modify model features (e.g., model grids, streams, boundary conditions, observational sites, etc.) and their associated data. It enables visualization and various spatio-temporal analyses of all model inputs and outputs at different scales (i.e., computing unit, sub-basin, basin, or user-defined spatial extent). The above system features, as well as many others, can significantly reduce the difficulty and time cost of building and using a complex IHM. The case study in the Heihe River Basin demonstrated the applicability of VHF for large scale integrated SW-GW modeling. Visualization and spatial

  5. Using ecological zones to increase the detail of Landsat classifications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, L., III; Mayer, K. E.

    1981-01-01

    Changes in classification detail of forest species descriptions were made for Landsat data on 2.2 million acres in northwestern California. Because basic forest canopy structures may exhibit very similar E-M energy reflectance patterns in different environmental regions, classification labels based on Landsat spectral signatures alone become very generalized when mapping large heterogeneous ecological regions. By adding a seven ecological zone stratification, a 167% improvement in classification detail was made over the results achieved without it. The seven zone stratification is a less costly alternative to the inclusion of complex collateral information, such as terrain data and soil type, into the Landsat data base when making inventories of areas greater than 500,000 acres.

  6. Modelling dendritic ecological networks in space: An integrated network perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin E. Peterson; Jay M. Ver Hoef; Dan J. Isaak; Jeffrey A. Falke; Marie-Josee Fortin; Chris E. Jordan; Kristina McNyset; Pascal Monestiez; Aaron S. Ruesch; Aritra Sengupta; Nicholas Som; E. Ashley Steel; David M. Theobald; Christian E. Torgersen; Seth J. Wenger

    2013-01-01

    Dendritic ecological networks (DENs) are a unique form of ecological networks that exhibit a dendritic network topology (e.g. stream and cave networks or plant architecture). DENs have a dual spatial representation; as points within the network and as points in geographical space. Consequently, some analytical methods used to quantify relationships in other types of...

  7. Inferring local ecological processes amid species pool influences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lessard, Jean-Philippe; Belmaker, Jonathan; Myers, Jonathan A.

    2012-01-01

    studies, null models of community structure, and ecologically explicit definitions of the species pool as a means to compare predominant ecological processes among regions. By uniting concepts and tools from community ecology and macroecology, this approach might facilitate synthesis and resolve many......Resolving contingencies in community ecology requires comparative studies of local communities along broad-scale environmental gradients and in different biogeographic regions. However, comparisons of local ecological processes among regions require a synthetic understanding of how the species pool...... of potential community members influences the structure of ecological communities. Here, we outline an integrative approach for quantifying local ecological processes while explicitly accounting for species pool influences. Specifically, we highlight the utility of combining geographically replicated local...

  8. Action Relations. Basic Design Concepts for Behaviour Modelling and Refinement.

    OpenAIRE

    Quartel, Dick

    1998-01-01

    This thesis presents basic design concepts, design methods and a basic design language for distributed system behaviours. This language is based on two basic concepts: the action concept and the causality relation concept. Our methods focus on behaviour refinement, which consists of replacing an abstract behaviour by a more concrete behaviour, such that the concrete behaviour conforms to the abstract behaviour. An important idea underlying this thesis is that an effective design methodology s...

  9. The Model Construction of English Ecological Class in the High School in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Zhen

    2017-01-01

    The Ecological class is a kind of class in which the system of class teaching is in a state of dynamic balance and it can enhance the efficiency of class teaching. The article analyzes the feature of English ecological class, illustrates the non-ecological class teaching problems and explores the ways to establish English ecological class from the…

  10. Interim balance: Ecology. Oekologische Zwischenbilanz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kogon, E; Jungk, R

    1981-03-01

    The world wide ecology problem is discussed with examples of energy, transportation, chemistry, agriculture and food industry, and water supply. Destruction of nature and human discord is considered. Conservative in our political parties and their views on environmental protection are presented, including alliance between reds and 'greens''. The Rhine initiative is discussed. Lead respects no borders accounts experiences of citizens' action groups in Lothringia and the Saar district. International airport Munich-II/comments by a protestant. 'Give priority to life is hearing on environmental protection. Other subjects include: 'Green's in the Bremen Senate; policy in a hard-hearing world psychology of citizens' action groups; critical ecological research and scientific establishment; full productivity and ecology; the deluge to follow/hints on how to build an ark; symbiosis is more than coexistence/ecologists' social theory; throwing in two hundred elementary particles/on the way to an ecological concept of science; scientific journals; alternative literature; and a teaching model for a teaching subject' ecology'.

  11. [Principles and methodology for ecological rehabilitation and security pattern design in key project construction].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Li-Ding; Lu, Yi-He; Tian, Hui-Ying; Shi, Qian

    2007-03-01

    Global ecological security becomes increasingly important with the intensive human activities. The function of ecological security is influenced by human activities, and in return, the efficiency of human activities will also be affected by the patterns of regional ecological security. Since the 1990s, China has initiated the construction of key projects "Yangtze Three Gorges Dam", "Qinghai-Tibet Railway", "West-to-East Gas Pipeline", "West-to-East Electricity Transmission" and "South-to-North Water Transfer" , etc. The interaction between these projects and regional ecological security has particularly attracted the attention of Chinese government. It is not only important for the regional environmental protection, but also of significance for the smoothly implementation of various projects aimed to develop an ecological rehabilitation system and to design a regional ecological security pattern. This paper made a systematic analysis on the types and characteristics of key project construction and their effects on the environment, and on the basis of this, brought forward the basic principles and methodology for ecological rehabilitation and security pattern design in this construction. It was considered that the following issues should be addressed in the implementation of a key project: 1) analysis and evaluation of current regional ecological environment, 2) evaluation of anthropogenic disturbances and their ecological risk, 3) regional ecological rehabilitation and security pattern design, 4) scenario analysis of environmental benefits of regional ecological security pattern, 5) re-optimization of regional ecological system framework, and 6) establishment of regional ecosystem management plan.

  12. Improving the effectiveness of ecological site descriptions: General state-and-transition models and the Ecosystem Dynamics Interpretive Tool (EDIT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.; Williamson, Jeb C.; Talbot, Curtis J.; Cates, Greg W.; Duniway, Michael C.; Brown, Joel R.

    2016-01-01

    State-and-transition models (STMs) are useful tools for management, but they can be difficult to use and have limited content.STMs created for groups of related ecological sites could simplify and improve their utility. The amount of information linked to models can be increased using tables that communicate management interpretations and important within-group variability.We created a new web-based information system (the Ecosystem Dynamics Interpretive Tool) to house STMs, associated tabular information, and other ecological site data and descriptors.Fewer, more informative, better organized, and easily accessible STMs should increase the accessibility of science information.

  13. SEMI-ANALYTIC GALAXY EVOLUTION (SAGE): MODEL CALIBRATION AND BASIC RESULTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Croton, Darren J.; Stevens, Adam R. H.; Tonini, Chiara; Garel, Thibault; Bernyk, Maksym; Bibiano, Antonio; Hodkinson, Luke; Mutch, Simon J.; Poole, Gregory B.; Shattow, Genevieve M. [Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology, P.O. Box 218, Hawthorn, Victoria 3122 (Australia)

    2016-02-15

    This paper describes a new publicly available codebase for modeling galaxy formation in a cosmological context, the “Semi-Analytic Galaxy Evolution” model, or sage for short.{sup 5} sage is a significant update to the 2006 model of Croton et al. and has been rebuilt to be modular and customizable. The model will run on any N-body simulation whose trees are organized in a supported format and contain a minimum set of basic halo properties. In this work, we present the baryonic prescriptions implemented in sage to describe the formation and evolution of galaxies, and their calibration for three N-body simulations: Millennium, Bolshoi, and GiggleZ. Updated physics include the following: gas accretion, ejection due to feedback, and reincorporation via the galactic fountain; a new gas cooling–radio mode active galactic nucleus (AGN) heating cycle; AGN feedback in the quasar mode; a new treatment of gas in satellite galaxies; and galaxy mergers, disruption, and the build-up of intra-cluster stars. Throughout, we show the results of a common default parameterization on each simulation, with a focus on the local galaxy population.

  14. SEMI-ANALYTIC GALAXY EVOLUTION (SAGE): MODEL CALIBRATION AND BASIC RESULTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Croton, Darren J.; Stevens, Adam R. H.; Tonini, Chiara; Garel, Thibault; Bernyk, Maksym; Bibiano, Antonio; Hodkinson, Luke; Mutch, Simon J.; Poole, Gregory B.; Shattow, Genevieve M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes a new publicly available codebase for modeling galaxy formation in a cosmological context, the “Semi-Analytic Galaxy Evolution” model, or sage for short. 5 sage is a significant update to the 2006 model of Croton et al. and has been rebuilt to be modular and customizable. The model will run on any N-body simulation whose trees are organized in a supported format and contain a minimum set of basic halo properties. In this work, we present the baryonic prescriptions implemented in sage to describe the formation and evolution of galaxies, and their calibration for three N-body simulations: Millennium, Bolshoi, and GiggleZ. Updated physics include the following: gas accretion, ejection due to feedback, and reincorporation via the galactic fountain; a new gas cooling–radio mode active galactic nucleus (AGN) heating cycle; AGN feedback in the quasar mode; a new treatment of gas in satellite galaxies; and galaxy mergers, disruption, and the build-up of intra-cluster stars. Throughout, we show the results of a common default parameterization on each simulation, with a focus on the local galaxy population

  15. Basic set theory

    CERN Document Server

    Levy, Azriel

    2002-01-01

    An advanced-level treatment of the basics of set theory, this text offers students a firm foundation, stopping just short of the areas employing model-theoretic methods. Geared toward upper-level undergraduate and graduate students, it consists of two parts: the first covers pure set theory, including the basic motions, order and well-foundedness, cardinal numbers, the ordinals, and the axiom of choice and some of it consequences; the second deals with applications and advanced topics such as point set topology, real spaces, Boolean algebras, and infinite combinatorics and large cardinals. An

  16. How Well Does LCA Model Land Use Impacts on Biodiversity?--A Comparison with Approaches from Ecology and Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran, Michael; de Souza, Danielle Maia; Antón, Assumpció; Teixeira, Ricardo F M; Michelsen, Ottar; Vidal-Legaz, Beatriz; Sala, Serenella; Milà i Canals, Llorenç

    2016-03-15

    The modeling of land use impacts on biodiversity is considered a priority in life cycle assessment (LCA). Many diverging approaches have been proposed in an expanding literature on the topic. The UNEP/SETAC Life Cycle Initiative is engaged in building consensus on a shared modeling framework to highlight best-practice and guide model application by practitioners. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of 31 models from both the LCA and the ecology/conservation literature (20 from LCA, 11 from non-LCA fields) according to a set of criteria reflecting (i) model completeness, (ii) biodiversity representation, (iii) impact pathway coverage, (iv) scientific quality, and (v) stakeholder acceptance. We show that LCA models tend to perform worse than those from ecology and conservation (although not significantly), implying room for improvement. We identify seven best-practice recommendations that can be implemented immediately to improve LCA models based on existing approaches in the literature. We further propose building a "consensus model" through weighted averaging of existing information, to complement future development. While our research focuses on conceptual model design, further quantitative comparison of promising models in shared case studies is an essential prerequisite for future informed model choice.

  17. Landscape fragmentation and pollinator movement within agricultural environments: a modelling framework for exploring foraging and movement ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rands, Sean A

    2014-01-01

    Pollinator decline has been linked to landscape change, through both habitat fragmentation and the loss of habitat suitable for the pollinators to live within. One method for exploring why landscape change should affect pollinator populations is to combine individual-level behavioural ecological techniques with larger-scale landscape ecology. A modelling framework is described that uses spatially-explicit individual-based models to explore the effects of individual behavioural rules within a landscape. The technique described gives a simple method for exploring the effects of the removal of wild corridors, and the creation of wild set-aside fields: interventions that are common to many national agricultural policies. The effects of these manipulations on central-place nesting pollinators are varied, and depend upon the behavioural rules that the pollinators are using to move through the environment. The value of this modelling framework is discussed, and future directions for exploration are identified.

  18. Landscape fragmentation and pollinator movement within agricultural environments: a modelling framework for exploring foraging and movement ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean A. Rands

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Pollinator decline has been linked to landscape change, through both habitat fragmentation and the loss of habitat suitable for the pollinators to live within. One method for exploring why landscape change should affect pollinator populations is to combine individual-level behavioural ecological techniques with larger-scale landscape ecology. A modelling framework is described that uses spatially-explicit individual-based models to explore the effects of individual behavioural rules within a landscape. The technique described gives a simple method for exploring the effects of the removal of wild corridors, and the creation of wild set-aside fields: interventions that are common to many national agricultural policies. The effects of these manipulations on central-place nesting pollinators are varied, and depend upon the behavioural rules that the pollinators are using to move through the environment. The value of this modelling framework is discussed, and future directions for exploration are identified.

  19. Basic environmental bookshelf: An annotated bibliography. Current issue paper No. 116

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeager, L.

    1995-11-01

    This bibliography is intended to provide objective basic information on science and the environment, and includes books and journal articles that should be understandable to the nonspecialist. The bibliographic entries are arranged alphabetically by author within broad categories such as acid precipitation, air quality, climate change, ecology and ecosystems, energy, environmental assessment, hazardous wastes, law, natural history, ozone depletion, parks and urban issues, public policy, toxic chemicals, and water resources. Most entries have brief annotations.

  20. Ecological efficiency in China and its influencing factors-a super-efficient SBM metafrontier-Malmquist-Tobit model study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xiaojun; Wang, Changxin; Yu, Yuanbo; Li, Yudong; Dong, Biying; Zhang, Xinyu; Niu, Xueqi; Yang, Qian; Chen, Ruimin; Li, Yifan; Gu, Yihan

    2018-05-15

    Ecological problem is one of the core issues that restrain China's economic development at present, and it is urgently needed to be solved properly and effectively. Based on panel data from 30 regions, this paper uses a super efficiency slack-based measure (SBM) model that introduces the undesirable output to calculate the ecological efficiency, and then uses traditional and metafrontier-Malmquist index method to study regional change trends and technology gap ratios (TGRs). Finally, the Tobit regression and principal component analysis methods are used to analysis the main factors affecting eco-efficiency and impact degree. The results show that about 60% of China's provinces have effective eco-efficiency, and the overall ecological efficiency of China is at the superior middling level, but there is a serious imbalance among different provinces and regions. Ecological efficiency has an obvious spatial cluster effect. There are differences among regional TGR values. Most regions show a downward trend and the phenomenon of focusing on economic development at the expense of ecological protection still exists. Expansion of opening to the outside, increases in R&D spending, and improvement of population urbanization rate have positive effects on eco-efficiency. Blind economic expansion, increases of industrial structure, and proportion of energy consumption have negative effects on eco-efficiency.

  1. ECOLOGICAL GROWTH BOUNDARIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna BLUSZCZ

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The trends of the society for the continuous growth, combined with the demographic changes, today have led to the important ecological problems on a global scale, which include, among others: the increased use of non-renewable natu-ral resources, an increase of the greenhouse gas emissions, contamination of soil, water, air and the progressive degra-dation of ecosystems. In the face of such serious threats the global initiatives of all countries are important to limit the results of the excessive consumption. The aim of the article is to present the methods of measurement of the consump-tion level of natural resources by the societies and the examination of relationships between the level of development of the societies and the use of resources. The popular measure – the ecological footprint – was used as a measurement method for the consumption of the today’s generations in relation to the regenerative possibilities of the natural envi-ronment. On the other hand, as the assessment method for the level of development of societies – the Human Develop-ment Index (HDI, including three basic areas: the life expectancy, GDP level per capita and education was used. The results of the research indicate that the current trend of the unlimited consumption of the highly developed countries takes place at the expense of the future generations.

  2. Marine Ecological Environment Management Based on Ecological Compensation Mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qunzhen Qu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The level of marine environmental management is a key factor in the successful implementation of marine power strategies. The improvement in management levels of marine environments requires innovation in marine management. In other words, the transformation of marine environmental management into marine ecological environment management must be done in order to achieve sustainable development of the marine economy. As an environmental economic policy that combines both administrative and market measures, ecological compensation mechanisms have significant advantages in marine ecological environment management. Based on the study of the current development of ecological compensation mechanisms in China, through the analysis of the connotation of marine ecological civilization, existing marine ecological protection practices and marine environmental management methods, this paper posits that the current marine ecological environment management in China should be established on the basis of ecological compensation mechanisms. At present, a lack of laws and regulations for overall marine ecological environment management is the key factor restricting the practice of marine ecological environment management. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the current path of marine ecological environment management in China from the perspective of the construction of legal system of ecological compensation law, the establishment of ecological compensation fees, ecological taxes and ecological compensation fund systems, and the clear status for a marine ecological management and supervision body.

  3. Some empirical evidence for ecological dissonance theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, D I; Verhoek-Miller, N; Giesen, J M; Wells-Parker, E

    2000-04-01

    Using Festinger's cognitive dissonance theory as a model, the extension to Barker's ecological theory, referred to as ecological dissonance theory, was developed. Designed to examine the motivational dynamics involved when environmental systems are in conflict with each other or with cognitive systems, ecological dissonance theory yielded five propositions which were tested in 10 studies. This summary of the studies suggests operationally defined measures of ecological dissonance may correlate with workers' satisfaction with their jobs, involvement with their jobs, alienation from their work, and to a lesser extent, workers' conflict resolution behavior and communication style.

  4. Marine and estuarine natural microbial biofilms: ecological and biogeochemical dimensions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Roger Anderson

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Marine and estuarine microbial biofilms are ubiquitously distributed worldwide and are increasingly of interest in basic and applied sciences because of their unique structural and functional features that make them remarkably different from the biota in the plankton. This is a review of some current scientific knowledge of naturally occurring microbial marine and estuarine biofilms including prokaryotic and microeukaryotic biota, but excluding research specifically on engineering and applied aspects of biofilms such as biofouling. Because the microbial communities including bacteria and protists are integral to the fundamental ecological and biogeochemical processes that support biofilm communities, particular attention is given to the structural and ecological aspects of microbial biofilm formation, succession, and maturation, as well as the dynamics of the interactions of the microbiota in biofilms. The intent is to highlight current state of scientific knowledge and possible avenues of future productive research, especially focusing on the ecological and biogeochemical dimensions.

  5. Deciphering the microbial ecology in bio- gas reactors for optimizing the anaerobic digestion process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhu, Xinyu

    of the basic microbial metabolism and ecology, methanogenic microbial communities were enriched in a lab-scale continuous stirred-tank reactor (CSTR) fed with synthetic feedstocks. In the experiment, the substrates used were stepwise simplified (i.e. polysaccharide, monosaccharide, short chain fatty acids...

  6. Simulating water quality and ecological status of Lake Vansjø, Norway, under land-use and climate change by linking process-oriented models with a Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couture, Raoul-Marie; Moe, S Jannicke; Lin, Yan; Kaste, Øyvind; Haande, Sigrid; Lyche Solheim, Anne

    2018-04-15

    Excess nutrient inputs and climate change are two of multiple stressors affecting many lakes worldwide. Lake Vansjø in southern Norway is one such eutrophic lake impacted by blooms of toxic blue-green algae (cyanobacteria), and classified as moderate ecological status under the EU Water Framework Directive. Future climate change may exacerbate the situation. Here we use a set of chained models (global climate model, hydrological model, catchment phosphorus (P) model, lake model, Bayesian Network) to assess the possible future ecological status of the lake, given the set of climate scenarios and storylines common to the EU project MARS (Managing Aquatic Ecosystems and Water Resources under Multiple Stress). The model simulations indicate that climate change alone will increase precipitation and runoff, and give higher P fluxes to the lake, but cause little increase in phytoplankton biomass or changes in ecological status. For the storylines of future management and land-use, however, the model results indicate that both the phytoplankton biomass and the lake ecological status can be positively or negatively affected. Our results also show the value in predicting a biological indicator of lake ecological status, in this case, cyanobacteria biomass with a BN model. For all scenarios, cyanobacteria contribute to worsening the status assessed by phytoplankton, compared to using chlorophyll-a alone. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Ecological sustainability and urban form

    OpenAIRE

    Ivan Muñiz; Anna Galindo

    2001-01-01

    One controversial idea present in the debate on urban sustainability is that urban sprawl is an ecological stressing problem. We have tested this popular assumption by measuring the ecological footprint of commuting and housing of the 163 municipalities of the Barcelona Metropolitan Region and by relating the estimated values with residential density and accessibility, the fundamental determinant of residential density according to the Monocentric City Model.

  8. Ecological balance between supply and demand based on cultivated land ecological footprint method in Guizhou Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Qinghuan; Zhou, Dequan; Bai, Xiaoyong; Xiao, Jianyong; Chen, Fei; Zeng, Cheng

    2018-01-01

    In order to construct the indicators of the balance between supply and demand of the cultivated land ecological carrying capacity, basing on the relation of the cultivated land ecological carrying capacity supply and demand, applying the model of Cultivated Land Ecological Footprints and the method of CIS and considering the factors of cultivated land production, taking the statistical data of 2015 as an example, and then made a systematic evaluation of the balance between supply and demand of the cultivated land ecological carrying capacity in Guizhou Province. The results show that (1) the spatial distribution of supply and demand of cultivated land ecological carrying capacity in Guizhou is unbalanced, and the northern and eastern parts are the overloading area, the middle, the south and the west parts are the balance area. (2) From the perspective of cultivated land structure, the crops with ecological carrying capacity surplus were rice, vegetables and peanuts, among which rice was the highest and the ecological balance index was 0.7354. The crops with ecological carrying capacity overload were potato, wheat, maize, rapeseeds, soybeans and cured tobacco, of which the index of potato up to 7.11, other types of indices are less than 1.5. The research can provide the ecological security early warning, the overall plan of land use and sustainable development of the area cultivated land with scientific evidence and decision support.

  9. Candidate innate immune system gene expression in the ecological model Daphnia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decaestecker, Ellen; Labbé, Pierrick; Ellegaard, Kirsten; Allen, Judith E; Little, Tom J

    2011-10-01

    The last ten years have witnessed increasing interest in host-pathogen interactions involving invertebrate hosts. The invertebrate innate immune system is now relatively well characterised, but in a limited range of genetic model organisms and under a limited number of conditions. Immune systems have been little studied under real-world scenarios of environmental variation and parasitism. Thus, we have investigated expression of candidate innate immune system genes in the water flea Daphnia, a model organism for ecological genetics, and whose capacity for clonal reproduction facilitates an exceptionally rigorous control of exposure dose or the study of responses at many time points. A unique characteristic of the particular Daphnia clones and pathogen strain combinations used presently is that they have been shown to be involved in specific host-pathogen coevolutionary interactions in the wild. We choose five genes, which are strong candidates to be involved in Daphnia-pathogen interactions, given that they have been shown to code for immune effectors in related organisms. Differential expression of these genes was quantified by qRT-PCR following exposure to the bacterial pathogen Pasteuria ramosa. Constitutive expression levels differed between host genotypes, and some genes appeared to show correlated expression. However, none of the genes appeared to show a major modification of expression level in response to Pasteuria exposure. By applying knowledge from related genetic model organisms (e.g. Drosophila) to models for the study of evolutionary ecology and coevolution (i.e. Daphnia), the candidate gene approach is temptingly efficient. However, our results show that detection of only weak patterns is likely if one chooses target genes for study based on previously identified genome sequences by comparison to homologues from other related organisms. Future work on the Daphnia-Pasteuria system will need to balance a candidate gene approach with more comprehensive

  10. Biosemiotics and ecological monitoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruni, Luis Emilio

    2001-01-01

    of the qualitative and relational aspects that can only be grasped by considering the semiotic networks operative in complex ecological and cultural systems. In this paper, it is suggested that a biosemiotic approach to ecology may prove useful for the modelling process, which in turn will allow the construction...... of meaningful monitoring systems. It is also contended that a biosemiotic approach may also serve to better integrate our understanding and monitoring of ecosystems into the cultural process of searching for (human) sustainability....

  11. The EcoData retriever: improving access to existing ecological data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin D Morris

    Full Text Available Ecological research relies increasingly on the use of previously collected data. Use of existing datasets allows questions to be addressed more quickly, more generally, and at larger scales than would otherwise be possible. As a result of large-scale data collection efforts, and an increasing emphasis on data publication by journals and funding agencies, a large and ever-increasing amount of ecological data is now publicly available via the internet. Most ecological datasets do not adhere to any agreed-upon standards in format, data structure or method of access. Some may be broken up across multiple files, stored in compressed archives, and violate basic principles of data structure. As a result acquiring and utilizing available datasets can be a time consuming and error prone process. The EcoData Retriever is an extensible software framework which automates the tasks of discovering, downloading, and reformatting ecological data files for storage in a local data file or relational database. The automation of these tasks saves significant time for researchers and substantially reduces the likelihood of errors resulting from manual data manipulation and unfamiliarity with the complexities of individual datasets.

  12. Simulating ecological changes caused by marine energy devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuchert, Pia; Elsaesser, Bjoern; Pritchard, Daniel; Kregting, Louise

    2015-04-01

    Marine renewable energy from wave and tidal technology has the potential to contribute significantly globally to energy security for future generations. However common to both tidal and wave energy extraction systems is concern regarding the potential environmental consequences of the deployment of the technology as environmental and ecological effects are so far poorly understood. Ecological surveys and studies to investigate the environmental impacts are time consuming and costly and are generally reactive; a more efficient approach is to develop 2 and 3D linked hydrodynamic-ecological modelling which has the potential to be proactive and to allow forecasting of the effects of array installation. The objective of the study was to explore tools which can help model and evaluate possible far- and near field changes in the environment and ecosystem caused by the introduction of arrays of marine energy devices. Using the commercial software, MIKE by DHI, we can predict and model possible changes in the ecosystem. MIKE21 and ECOLab modelling software provide the opportunity to couple high level hydrodynamic models with process based ecological models and/or agent based models (ABM). The flow solutions of the model were determined in an idealised tidal basin with the dimensions similar to that of Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, a body of water renowned for the location of the first grid-connected tidal turbine, SeaGen. In the first instance a simple process oriented ecological NPZD model was developed which are used to model marine and freshwater systems describing four state variables, Nutrient, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton and Detritus. The ecological model was run and evaluated under two hydrodynamic scenarios of the idealised basin. This included no tidal turbines (control) and an array of 55 turbines, an extreme scenario. Whilst an array of turbines has an effect on the hydrodynamics of the Lough, it is unlikely to see an extreme effect on the NPZD model

  13. Classifying the evolutionary and ecological features of neoplasms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maley, Carlo C.; Aktipis, Athena; Graham, Trevor A.; Sottoriva, Andrea; Boddy, Amy M.; Janiszewska, Michalina; Silva, Ariosto S.; Gerlinger, Marco; Yuan, Yinyin; Pienta, Kenneth J.; Anderson, Karen S.; Gatenby, Robert; Swanton, Charles; Posada, David; Wu, Chung-I; Schiffman, Joshua D.; Hwang, E. Shelley; Polyak, Kornelia; Anderson, Alexander R. A.; Brown, Joel S.; Greaves, Mel; Shibata, Darryl

    2018-01-01

    Neoplasms change over time through a process of cell-level evolution, driven by genetic and epigenetic alterations. However, the ecology of the microenvironment of a neoplastic cell determines which changes provide adaptive benefits. There is widespread recognition of the importance of these evolutionary and ecological processes in cancer, but to date, no system has been proposed for drawing clinically relevant distinctions between how different tumours are evolving. On the basis of a consensus conference of experts in the fields of cancer evolution and cancer ecology, we propose a framework for classifying tumours that is based on four relevant components. These are the diversity of neoplastic cells (intratumoural heterogeneity) and changes over time in that diversity, which make up an evolutionary index (Evo-index), as well as the hazards to neoplastic cell survival and the resources available to neoplastic cells, which make up an ecological index (Eco-index). We review evidence demonstrating the importance of each of these factors and describe multiple methods that can be used to measure them. Development of this classification system holds promise for enabling clinicians to personalize optimal interventions based on the evolvability of the patient’s tumour. The Evo- and Eco-indices provide a common lexicon for communicating about how neoplasms change in response to interventions, with potential implications for clinical trials, personalized medicine and basic cancer research. PMID:28912577

  14. The community ecology of pathogens: coinfection, coexistence and community composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seabloom, Eric W; Borer, Elizabeth T; Gross, Kevin; Kendig, Amy E; Lacroix, Christelle; Mitchell, Charles E; Mordecai, Erin A; Power, Alison G

    2015-04-01

    Disease and community ecology share conceptual and theoretical lineages, and there has been a resurgence of interest in strengthening links between these fields. Building on recent syntheses focused on the effects of host community composition on single pathogen systems, we examine pathogen (microparasite) communities using a stochastic metacommunity model as a starting point to bridge community and disease ecology perspectives. Such models incorporate the effects of core community processes, such as ecological drift, selection and dispersal, but have not been extended to incorporate host-pathogen interactions, such as immunosuppression or synergistic mortality, that are central to disease ecology. We use a two-pathogen susceptible-infected (SI) model to fill these gaps in the metacommunity approach; however, SI models can be intractable for examining species-diverse, spatially structured systems. By placing disease into a framework developed for community ecology, our synthesis highlights areas ripe for progress, including a theoretical framework that incorporates host dynamics, spatial structuring and evolutionary processes, as well as the data needed to test the predictions of such a model. Our synthesis points the way for this framework and demonstrates that a deeper understanding of pathogen community dynamics will emerge from approaches working at the interface of disease and community ecology. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  15. Study on Innovation of Teacher Training Model in Basic Education from the Perspective of "Blended Learning"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bu, Huabai; Bu, Shizhen

    2012-01-01

    Gradual integration of synergetic technology, P2P technology and online learning community furnishes a new research field for innovation of teacher training model in a knowledge economy era. This article proposes the innovative model of "whole of three lines" in teacher training in basic education from the perspective of "blended…

  16. Probabilistic Evaluation of Ecological and Economic Objectives of River Basin Management Reveals a Potential Flaw in the Goal Setting of the EU Water Framework Directive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hjerppe, Turo; Taskinen, Antti; Kotamäki, Niina; Malve, Olli; Kettunen, Juhani

    2017-04-01

    The biological status of European lakes has not improved as expected despite up-to-date legislation and ecological standards. As a result, the realism of objectives and the attainment of related ecological standards are under doubt. This paper gets to the bottom of a river basin management plan of a eutrophic lake in Finland and presents the ecological and economic impacts of environmental and societal drivers and planned management measures. For these purposes, we performed a Monte Carlo simulation of a diffuse nutrient load, lake water quality and cost-benefit models. Simulations were integrated into a Bayesian influence diagram that revealed the basic uncertainties. It turned out that the attainment of good ecological status as qualified in the Water Framework Directive of the European Union is unlikely within given socio-economic constraints. Therefore, management objectives and ecological and economic standards need to be reassessed and reset to provide a realistic goal setting for management. More effort should be put into the evaluation of the total monetary benefits and on the monitoring of lake phosphorus balances to reduce the uncertainties, and the resulting margin of safety and costs and risks of planned management measures.

  17. "It happened, what’s the problem?" and "A guide through the problem": A model for consideration of ecological issues in chemistry education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korolija Jasminka N.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the ability for application of knowledge of chemistry (acquired in the existing educational system in real life the Model for Consideration of Ecological Issues was developed and applied in high school. The Model consists of the continuous text (“It Happened, What’s the Problem?” and the test with non-continuous text (“A Guide Through the Problem”, which are prepared for consideration of the problem of eutrophication. All results obtained (average achievement of 70.9±14.3 % showed that the application of the Model enabled: understanding of an ecological problem based on scientific representations of the term eutrophication given in the continuous text, realization that the pollution of our environment may be directly related to modern life, application of acquired knowledge of chemistry to observe and understand the cause and effect of eutrophication in our environment, to draw a scientific conclusion, and understanding the importance of science and technology discoveries for solving ecological problems. In addition, Model contributed to the development of student’s environmental literacy (ecological knowledge and cognitive skills, ability to think critically, and provided possibilities for classroom knowledge to become applicable in real life. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 179048

  18. The ecological production of cleans stock-breeding problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meldebekov, A.M.

    2002-01-01

    KazSRTIS have made researches on study of maintenance in cows' milk developed in Almaty's region, determination of heavy metal salts and radionuclides. It has been noted that maintenance of mercury, lead, cupper and zinc increased in suburb's housekeeping cows' milk, which was disposed nearly international highway and industry activities. It is known that entering radionuclides human organism happens by food chain 'soil - vegetable cover - animals product stock-breeding -person'. Animals transformer stern's plants energy at the in conclusion it allows to take the compare with initial vegetable exponent more ecological tidy products limits stream toxic elements in food series of person. It lets to study agricultural animals, how 'biological filter' in production ecological clean and healthy product of food. Changing structure and set stern's rationals, method contents the limit of animals stream manufacturing pollution from soil vegetable cover agricultural used in milk and in mead from 2 till 5 times. Utilisation tidy stern's in final period fatten meat cattle give possibility to clean the organs and tissue of animals which representative food's value from admixture to level, corresponding medical - hygienic standards. It is necessary to make analysis on compound investigation on the effect of radionuclides in agricultural animals, namely to utilize them, that really barrier migrate toxic elements in captured chain of person. The ways of solutions in ecological stock-breeding problems are next: to show up ecological tidy and ecological unsuccessful places; to study rules of transition in basic pollutions of food chains; toxic elements limitation rules in stock-breeding production; utilization manufactory-polluted territories from technological elements for stock-breeding

  19. A socio-ecological model for unintentional injuries in minorities: a case study of Arab Israeli children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron-Epel, Orna; Ivancovsky, Michal

    2015-01-01

    Minority children have often been reported to be at high risk of injury. The higher levels of reported unintentional injuries among Arab children compared to Jewish children in Israel are mainly due to pedestrian traffic crashes, falls and burns. Arab children aged 1-4 years have a higher relative risk of injury compared to Jews. We suggest a socio-ecological model to explain these differences in risk based on individual, interpersonal, community and societal ecological levels of society. Each level is divided into social and physical environments and behaviour. Two main factors may contribute to the high rates of injury among Arab children: the quality of the physical environment in which the children live and play and the levels of child supervision. Socio-economic status may contribute to these differences at all ecological levels of society. This approach could be useful for researchers and practitioners to analyse similar issues in other communities and help develop appropriate interventions.

  20. BioVeL: a virtual laboratory for data analysis and modelling in biodiversity science and ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardisty, Alex R; Bacall, Finn; Beard, Niall; Balcázar-Vargas, Maria-Paula; Balech, Bachir; Barcza, Zoltán; Bourlat, Sarah J; De Giovanni, Renato; de Jong, Yde; De Leo, Francesca; Dobor, Laura; Donvito, Giacinto; Fellows, Donal; Guerra, Antonio Fernandez; Ferreira, Nuno; Fetyukova, Yuliya; Fosso, Bruno; Giddy, Jonathan; Goble, Carole; Güntsch, Anton; Haines, Robert; Ernst, Vera Hernández; Hettling, Hannes; Hidy, Dóra; Horváth, Ferenc; Ittzés, Dóra; Ittzés, Péter; Jones, Andrew; Kottmann, Renzo; Kulawik, Robert; Leidenberger, Sonja; Lyytikäinen-Saarenmaa, Päivi; Mathew, Cherian; Morrison, Norman; Nenadic, Aleksandra; de la Hidalga, Abraham Nieva; Obst, Matthias; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Paymal, Elisabeth; Pesole, Graziano; Pinto, Salvatore; Poigné, Axel; Fernandez, Francisco Quevedo; Santamaria, Monica; Saarenmaa, Hannu; Sipos, Gergely; Sylla, Karl-Heinz; Tähtinen, Marko; Vicario, Saverio; Vos, Rutger Aldo; Williams, Alan R; Yilmaz, Pelin

    2016-10-20

    Making forecasts about biodiversity and giving support to policy relies increasingly on large collections of data held electronically, and on substantial computational capability and capacity to analyse, model, simulate and predict using such data. However, the physically distributed nature of data resources and of expertise in advanced analytical tools creates many challenges for the modern scientist. Across the wider biological sciences, presenting such capabilities on the Internet (as "Web services") and using scientific workflow systems to compose them for particular tasks is a practical way to carry out robust "in silico" science. However, use of this approach in biodiversity science and ecology has thus far been quite limited. BioVeL is a virtual laboratory for data analysis and modelling in biodiversity science and ecology, freely accessible via the Internet. BioVeL includes functions for accessing and analysing data through curated Web services; for performing complex in silico analysis through exposure of R programs, workflows, and batch processing functions; for on-line collaboration through sharing of workflows and workflow runs; for experiment documentation through reproducibility and repeatability; and for computational support via seamless connections to supporting computing infrastructures. We developed and improved more than 60 Web services with significant potential in many different kinds of data analysis and modelling tasks. We composed reusable workflows using these Web services, also incorporating R programs. Deploying these tools into an easy-to-use and accessible 'virtual laboratory', free via the Internet, we applied the workflows in several diverse case studies. We opened the virtual laboratory for public use and through a programme of external engagement we actively encouraged scientists and third party application and tool developers to try out the services and contribute to the activity. Our work shows we can deliver an operational